Report No. 4954-1 ND
General Secondary Education in Indonesia:
Issues and Programs For Action
July 26, 1984
Projects Department
East Asia and Pacific Rcgional Oifice
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Document of the World Bank
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients
onIV in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise
be disclosed without World Bank authorization.



CIJRRENCY EOUIVALENTS
Currency Unit = Indonesian Rupiah (Rp)
S1            = Rp 970
Rp I          = SO.001031
Rp 1 thousand = S1.03
Rp I million  = SI,031
Rp I billion  = S1,031,noo
FISCAL YEAR
April I - March 31
AAnEEMIC YEAR
July I - June 30
PRINCIPAL ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS IJSEI)
BP3          -  Parents' Association School Contributions
DPP          -  School Grants from School Fees (SPP) Collected
from Parents
IYIP         -  Teacher Training College
IPA          -  Science Stream
IPS          -  Arts Stream
Kabupaten    -  District
Kecamatan    -  Subdistrict
PPI          -  Entrance Exanination for In Senior Public llniversities
PP28         -  Government Regulation 'No. 29, IQRI on the Distribution
of Aid to Private Schools
S.AKERNAS    -  Labor Force Survey
SD           -  Primarv School
SD-INPRES    -  Primary School Building Progran
SLTA         -  All Senior Secondary Schools
SLTP         -  All Junior Secondary Schools
SMA          -  Senior General Secondary School
SMP          -  Junior General Secondary School
SPG          -  Teacher Training High School
SPPs         -  Public School Fees Contributed by Parents
STM          -  Senior Technical School



FOR OFCIAL USE ONLY
INDONESIA
GENERAL SECONDARY EDUCATION IN INDONESIA: ISSUES AND PROGRAMS FOR ACTION
Table of Contents
Page No.
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS  . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  i - lJi
I.  INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .      1
Operational Purpose and Organization of the Study . .     1
Overview of the Education Sector  . . . . . . . . . .     2
Investments in General Secondary Education  . . . . .     3
II.  RECENT ACHIEVEMENTS  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .     4
III.  CURRENT ISSUES AND PROBLEMS  . . . . . . . . . . . ... .    8
Education Sector Goals  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .     8
Educational Quality:  Issues and Problems . . . . . .     8
Educational Equality  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .    21
Sources of Educational Inequality . . . . . . . . . .    27
Enrollment and Output Capacity . . . . . . . . . . .     30
Financing Secondary Education . . . . . . . . . . .      34
Administration  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .    39
The Returns on Investment in Secondary Education  .      39
IV. SOME PRINCIPLES AND TECHNIQUES FOR INVESTMENT
POLICY AND ACTION  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .    43
Improving Quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .    43
Improving Equity  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .    46
Expanding Capacity  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .    49
Financing the Development of General Secondary
Education   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .    50
V.  CONCLUSION: A PROGRAM OF ACTIONS AND ITS FINANCIAL
IMPLICATIONS   . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .    52
Three Specific Action Programs  . . . . . . . . . . .    53
Quality Action Program  . . . . . . . . . . . . . .    53
Equity Action Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .    53
Resource Mobilization Program . . . . . . . . . . .    54
Budgetary Implications of the Action Programs . . . .    55
This report was prepared by Mr. J. van Lutsenburg Maas (educator!
sociologist) and is based on the findings of a mission in November 1982
comprising Mr. van L. Maas (mission leader), Mr. H.C.A. Somerset (consultant,
educator), Mr. D. Clark (consultant, economist), Mr. J. Smyth (Unesco,
economist), Mr. G. Criel (consultant, economist) and Ms. A. Nazareth
(consultant, educator).  The report was reviewed by Mr. van L. Maas, with
the Government in an early draft in April 1983, and again in April 1984
during missions to identify and appraise a First General Secondary Education
Project.
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of
their ofricial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.



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Page No.
TABLES IN TEXT
2.1:  Enrollment Growth in Primary and Secondary Schools . . . . . . . . 4
2.2:  Public and Private Shares of Enrollment, 1975, 1980/81
and 1981/82  . . . .       . . . . . . . . . .        . . ..  . .  5
2.3:  Gini Coefficients and Participation Rates for Enrollments
in all SMP and SMA Schools .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
3.1:  Per Student Provision in Routine Budget and DPP Funds for
SMPs and SMAs  . . . . . . . . . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
3.2:  Availability of School Library and Science Laboratory
Facilities by Type of SMA School . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
3.3:  The Proportion of Explained Achievement Variance Attributable
to Home and School .      .  .  . . .   . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.4:  The Effect of School and Teacher Quality on Science
Performance in Indonesia by Comparison to Other Countries  . . . 19
3.5:  School Attendance Rates for Socio-economic Groups, 1978 ... 24
3.6: Gini Coefficients for Inter-provincial Distribution of.
Secondary School Enrollments, Classrooms and Teachers,
1980/81  .              . . .                            . . . . . . . . 25
3.7: Survey Test Scores for Urban and Rural Grade 9 Students
According to their Access to a School Library . . . . . . . . . 25
3.8: Family Costs of Secondary Schooling, 1979/80  . . . . . . . . . . . 28
3.9: Distribution of SMA Enrollments, Applications and Recruitment
to PP1 Universities/Institutes across Provinces, 1982  . . . .  30
3.10: Secondary Enrollment Rates in Indonesia, 1978/79-1981/82 . . . . . 31
3.11: Secondary Education Enrollment Rates, East Asia and Pacific
Region    .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  31
3.12: Distribution of Secondary School Enrollments between General
and Vocational Schools 1977-1981/82  . . .. . . . . . . 32
3.13: Public Investment in Secondary Education in the Development
Budget, 1979/80-1982/83  .      .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . .  . 33
3.14: Financing of Education in Government Budget and as Percentage
of GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..                      . 34
3.15: International Comparisons of Levels of Government Financing
of Education Sector:  Percentage of GDP  . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
3.16: Education Expenditures as Percentage of GDP-Asia Region  . . . . . 35
3.17: Social Rates of Return of Senior Secondary School Graduates,
1978  ********** . .     . .  .  .  .  .  .  .    .  .  .  .  .  .  .  41
3.18: Labor Market Results in 1978, Male Out-of-School Members of
Tracer Study Cohort, by Location . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
3.19: Educational Qualifications of the Labor Force, 1976  . . . . . . . 42
5.1:  Breakdown of Secondary Education Action Program Costs in . . . . . 56
1984/85 and 1993/94
FIGURES IN TEXT
3.1:  Number of Teachers Required . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.2  Total Number of New Teachers Required . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15



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BIBLIOGRAPHY
APPENDIX TABLES
Table 1         Admission Cutoff Marks for Courses at PP1 Universities
and other Recruitment Data
Table 2         Distribution of School Quality Inputs by Province
Table 3  :      Average Number of Good Classrooms and Corresponding
Representation Indices, 1980/81, SHP and SMA
Table 4         Student/Teacher Ratios and Corresponding Representation
Indices 1980/81, SNP and SYAh
Table 5  :      Rank Representation Indices for Provinces Divided into
Urban and Rural Positions, 1981/82
Table 6         Vocational Enrollment as Percentage of Secondary School
Enrollment, East Asia Pacific Region
Table 7         Comparative Education Indicators
Table 8         Projections of Enrollments in SD, SMP, SMA to 1994/1995
Table 9         Projection of Resource Requirements for SD, SMP, SMA, to
1994/1995
Table 10 :      Education Budget Projections and Impact of Secondary
Education Action Program, Repelita IV and V
Table 11 :      Government Education Budget Growth With and Without
Action Program
APPENDIX FIGURES
Figure 1        Indonesia:  The Education Structure, 1983
Figure 2        Enrollment Numbers and Repetition, Dropout, Graduation Rates
in Primary Schools, 1970 and 1978/79
Figure 3        Junior Secon<ry School Net Progression Rates,
1971-1981/82
Figure 4        Senior Secondary School Net Progression Rates,
1971-1981/82
Figure 5        School Libraries and Achievement, Grade 9
Figure 6        School Libraries and Achievement, Grade 12
Figure 7        In-service Teacher Training and Achievement, Grade 9
Figure 8        In-service Teacher Training and Achievement, Grade 12
Figure 9        Representation Indices for Urban and Rural Portions of
Provinces, for SMP Enrollment, 1981/82
Figure 10       Representation Indices for Urban and Rural Portions of
Provinces, for SMA Enrollment, 1981/82



SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
i.        The Government has traditionally placed high priority on the devel-
opment of the education sector. For the past ten years it has been carrying
out a large-scale program of expansion of primary education. This program
is now complete and universal access to grade one of primary school has
virtually been achieved.  Demand for secondary education is increasing rapidly
and has already exceeded the capacity of public sector schools. Private
schools have sprung up to meet demand and at the senior secondary level out-
number public schools. Development of secondary education has therefore
become a priority issue and is likely to remain one for the next two
five-year plans (1984-89; 1989-94). However, while the massive expansion of
primary education was largely made possible by increased revenues from high
oil prices, the proposed development of secondary education coincides with a
drop in oil prices and constrained financial resources. Limited financial
resources will have an important effect on development of the subsector and
on Government's ability to deal with the main issues, namely: educational
quality; equity; capacity expansion; and financing.
ii.       The quality of secondary education as reflected in students learning
achievements is generally low, and effective teaching is concentrated in a
very small percentage of secondary schools. The report traces the low quality
of learning to several sources: lack of quality-producing resources; low
level of budgetary provisions for education; teachers' employment conditions;
and the school examinations system. Two important surveys carried out in the
late 1970s on Grade 9 and 12 students identified several factors which were
associated with high learning achievements. These included the existence of
school libraries and science laboratories. A third factor was that students
of teachers who had taken in-service teacher training courses showed high
achievements. Private schools in particular lack quality-producing resources
as they often operate on a very low budget. Budgetary provisions for
education are low in Indonesia in comparison with other countries in the
region. The low level of teachers salaries has led to "multi-jobbing" and
in some cases teachers are teaching more than 40 or 50 periods per week.
There is also a lack of trained teachers in the key subjects of science,
math, and languages. School-leaving examinations are in need of reform to
select the best students to go on to higher education more efficiently, to
monitor school quality, and to feed information on student learning back to
teachers and supervisors in order to assist them in improving the teaching
in their schools.
iii.      Equity is another of the major policy goals in the education sector.
However, given the resource constraints a choice may have to be made between
improving quality in existing institutions or enlarging the number of insti-
tutions to reach a greater portion of the population. At present there are
considerable disparities between urban and rural areas in the distribution
of classroom accommodation and availability of quality-producing resources.
Furthermore, there are significant disparities between socio-economic groups
in school attendance rates. Until 1982/83 new senior secondary schools
were located mainly in cities and larger towns and almost no boarding
facilities existed for students from rural areas who were forced to pay the
additional costs of renting accommodation if they wished to attend secondary



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school. The Government has now adopted locational criteria for new schools
which would favor students in deprived rural areas. The private costs of
secondary schooling are also a problem for lower income families. A mecha-
nism exists whereby parents of children in public secondary schools pay
contributions or school fees. These fees could be an important source of
additional capital which could be used to establish or subsidize more
schools in low income and rural areas. A wider distribution of quality-
producing resources among schools would also contribute to improved equity
in secondary schooling.
iv.       There is an increasilxgly strong demand for secondary schooling, as
witnessed by the rapid increase in the number of private schools. Given the
Government's budget constraints ways must be found to meet this demand at
the lowest budgetary cost. However, meeting social demand is not the only
justification for expanding capacity. Recent studies have also found that
investments in secondary education bring high rates of return. Government
assistance to private schools, accompanied by matching local contributions
would permit relatively low cost expansion, especially in rural areas. Ways
also need to be found to optimize existing school capacity. For example,
as primary school teacher demand recedes in the next several years, some
of these institutions can be converted to high schools.
V.        The report provides estimates on the cost of the proposed program
of improvement and expansion of secondary education within the context of an
overall education sector budget projection. Government budget allocations
to the education sector will need to be increased, especially for recurrent
costs. However, the increases required to improve quality and equity are
sustainable, partly because of greater efficiency in use of facilities, an
increase in school fees and a cyclical waning of primary and secondary
school enrollments beginning in the mid-1980s. At the same time, ways need
to be found to increase other sources of financing such as parents'
contributions to schools.
vi.       To address the issues in secondary education the report proposes
a program of activities to be carried out over the next ten years.
Quality
(a) Expand in-service teacher training programs by establishing
teacher training centers, especially in rural areas.
(b) Provide secondary schools with more science equipment,
laboratories, and libraries.
(c) Develop a more effective examinations system and establish
a National Examinations Center.
{d) Increase the supply of teachers and teacher incentives to reduce
multi-jobbing. Carry out a study on the optimal wage scales
for public school teachers.



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Equity
(a)  Channel capital funds to underprivileged provinces.
(b)  Increase access to high quality schools and universities.
(c)  Extend school coverage to rural areas by adopting the minimum
economic size school as the norm.
(d)  Increase double shift use of facilities in urban areas.
Capacity Expansion
(a)  Construct, with local, public support, 54,000 junior general
secondary school (SMP) classrooms and 47,000 senior general
secondary school (SMA) classrooms, plus related facilities such as
laboratories and libraries.
(b)  Reallocate excess teacher training high school (SPG) facilities for
SMA use.
(c)  Prepare physical facilities inventory on provincial basis to
determine allocation of grants for new facilities at existing
public and private SMPs and SMAs.
Financing
(a)  Adjust parents' contributions to public school fees (SPP)
schedule annually for inflation.
(b)  Allow schools to retain part of SPP income for own use.
(c)  Establish means-tested nil-fee system to permit qualified, low
income family students to enter public SMP and SMA without paying
SPP fees.
(d)  Channel more capital funds to private schools in selected areas.
vii.      The additional cost of this action program over the next two five-
year plans - Repelita IV, 1984/5-88/9, and Repelita V, 1989/90-93/4 - is sub-
stantial, but appears manageable. The average annual additional cost of the
program during Repelitas IV and V will be 14 to 17% above the presently
projected secondary education budget. The action program will cause the
secondary education budget to grow somewhat faster than it otherwise would.
Without any action program, the secondary budget would grow at 6.1% p.a.
With the entire action program including its cost recovery elements, the
budget would grow at 7.8% p.a. However, if the cost recovery elements were
not adopted as part of the package, it would grow at a faster rate, 8.6%;
i.e., the cost recovery elements reduce the program's edditional cost by
nearly a third.



I. INTRODUCTION
Operational Purpose and OrRanization of the Study
1.01      The chief purpose of this study is to stimulate an exchange of
analytical findings and Insights between World Bank staff and Indonesian
officials who are responsible for guiding policies and investments in
secondary education. This exchange is an ongoing process which is expected
to lead to new investments in Indonesian secondary education to which both
the Bank and the Government can give strong support.  In November 1982 a
series of seminars was held with government officials on drafts of several
of the background papers which contribute to this study./l An earlier draft
of the report was discussed with government officials in April 1983.
1.02      The sequence of this report is as follows:
Chapter 2:  A brief review of notable achievements in secondary
education in the general policy framework of the
education sector.
Chapter 3:  A discussion of the most pressing problems and issues
in general secondary education. These are grouped as
follows:
(a) educational quality;
(b) equity;
(c) output capacity;
(d) finance;
(e) administration; and
(f) returns on investment in secondary education.
Chapter 4:  A discussion of the broad policy and Investment
solutions available to deal with these problems,
Including a look at some of their underlying
assumptions.
Chapter 5: Recommendations of appropriate actions, both policy
measures and projects, to develop general secondary
education.
/1 These papers are included in the Bibliography. Background papers
prepared for this study are asterisked.



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Overview of the Education Sector /1
1.03      In 1984 Indonesia has a school-age population (7-18 years) of about
46 million. The Government.has made notable progress in providing basic
education and pre-employment training to its children and young people. By
1983, universal access to grade one of primary school had been virtually
achieved. Dropout and repetition rates have dropped dramatically in the past
decade, in spite of the much larger volume of children involved. From
13.0 million children in primary schools in 1972, enrollments grew to a peak
of 24.7 million in 1982/83 producing a gross enrollment rate of 100% compared
to the size of 7 to 12 year age group./2 At the junior secondary level
enrollment tripled from 1.4 million in 1971 to 4.3 million in 1982/83 and the
enrollment rate has reached 41Z. At the senior secondary level enrollment
grew from 0.6 million In 1971 to 2.2 million in 1982/83 resulting in an
enrollment rate of 23Z. In higher education enrollments have grown from
0.3 million In 1975 to about 0.6 million in 1982/83.
1.04      Despite these achievements there is an acute shortage of skilled
manpower which constrains effective implementation of development programs.
Substantial investment in the educatlon system beyond the primary level is now
required, in particular to increase the supply of better educated secondary
school graduates who are more easily trainable as professional, para-
professional, technical and managerial manpower, or who are more productive at
whatever work they take up.
1.05      The formal education system consists of a six-year primary school
cycle, junior and senior secondary cycles of three years each and post-
secondary education ranging from one to six years. The system is divided
into several types of schools at the secondary level:  junior seconda   -
general (SMP); home economics (SKKP); and technical (ST); senlor secondary -
general (SMA); economics (SMEA); home economics (SNKK); technical (STH ;
teacher training (SPG); and sports teacher training (SGO). At both secondary
levels the share of general secondary schools is large and has been
increasing.
1.06      While enrollment in general secondary education has been steadily
expanding, several issues have emerged concerning quality of output, equity,
output capacity, financing, and administration. These Issues are dealt with
in detail in the following chapters.
/1 The Educational Structure 1983 is shown in Appendix Figure 1. For
further descriptive material readers are referred to the "Indonesia
Education Sector Survey Report," No. 443a-IND, February 5, 1975, World
Bank.
/2 This is more than the approximately 21.3 million children in the first
six grades of school in the United States, which has a total population
1.6 times as great as Indonesia's. Calculated from Table 2 of the
Digest of Educational Statistics 19R2, National Center for Education
Statistics, Washington, D. C.



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Investments in General Secondary Education
1.07      The World Bank has made extensive Investments in Indonesia's
education and training sectors. These investments cover areas such as
universlty education, basic nonformal educatlon, vocational training,
specialized manpower training In the agriculture and public works sectors,
textbook development, polytechnic education (diploma level), pre-service
teacher training, special education, public administration and educational
administration training, and secondary-level technical education. The
absence of direct Bank investment in general secondary education has become
increasingly conspicuous. Even though Indirect Investments are being made
through loans for developing teacher training institutlons and for producing
more and better textbooks, the Bank dnd other major donors have been
reluctant to make major and more direct Investments In secondary schools
themselves. The reluctance to invest In this major subsector is probably
due to the popular judgment that general secondary schools produce an
oversupply of school leavers who are unemployed, unproductive, and poten-
tially a social and political liability. However, fresh data have become
available recently to challenge this judgment. These data will be discussed
at the end of Chapter 3.
1.08      Investments In Indonesia's general secondary schools have now
become a matter requiring urgent attention. With free access to primary
school, there is every likelihood that demand for secondary schooling will
grow rapidly, given experience elsewhere. Already in 1982/83, secondary
education received 572 of the Depart'ient of Education's development budget
and 48Z of its routine budget./I
/1 Analisa Perkembangan dan Perbandingan ABN Rutin dan Pembangunan, Dept.
P. dn K., Pelita III, Tables 9 and 10. (Primary education expenditure
falls largely under the Department of Internal Affairs).



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II. RECENT ACHIEVEMENTS
2.01      The achievements of Indonesian educators and planners since
Independence and especially since 1973 are Impressive, not only in terms of
quantitative growth, but also in terms of an enlightened policy regime, and
increasing efficiency and equity In the use of resources. The following
achievements deserve particular recognition.
2.02      Enrollment Growth.  Primary school (SD) enrollments have grown
nearly tenfold since Independence in 1945. The steepest growtn occurred
first In the early years and then again In the last half of the 1970s, when
the Government undertook the massive SD-INPRES school building program for
the rural areas. This cycle of rapid growth in the early and then again in
more recent years with relatively slow growth in the 1960s is repeated at
the junior and senior secondary levels as well (Table 2.1). At the
Table 2.1: ENROLLMENT GROWTH IN PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS
(enrollments in '000)
1945   agr      1960   agr       1975   agr   1982/83
Primary                2,523  10.7%   11,587   1.4Z   14,280    8%    24,742
Junior Secondary          90  17.92    1,062   4.0%    1,900   12.3%   4,273
Senior Secondary          18  22.22      362   5.4%       795   16.1%   2,261
Sources: Education In Indonesia, 1900-1974; Rangkuman, Statistik
Persekolahan, 1975 through 1982/83.
agr - annual growth rate.
secondary level, this growth has been facilitated by major expansions in
private as well as public schools. Table 2.2 on the next page shows the
recent shifts In the pattern of accommodation between public and private
schools. At the primary level nearly all the growth has been accommodated
through the Government's direct effort. At the junior secondary level, the
government majority share has stayed slightly ahead of the private sector's
effort. Rowever, at the senior secondary level private sector growth haa
surpassed the public sector. Among senior general secondary schools (SMA)
alone the private sector numerical lead has become more evident in the past
few years as the bottom panel of Table 2.2 shows quite clearly.



Table 2.2: PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SHARES OF ENROLLMENT: 1975, 1980/81-1982/83
1975           1980/81        1981/82         1982/83
N ('000)  i    N ('000)  Z    N ('000)  Z    N ('000)  Z
SD
Public          12,132    85   20,165    90   21,649    91   22,548    91
Private          2,148    15    2,322    10    2,214       9    2,194     9
Total      14,280   100   22,487   100   23,863   100   24,742   100
All SLTP
Public           1,000    53    1,869    55    2,124    56    2,380    56
Private             900    47    1,544    45    1,686    44    1,893    44
Total       1,900   100    3,413   100    3,810   100    4,273   100
SMP
Public             707    47    1,797    54    2,060    55    2,310    55
Private            811    53    1,532    46    1,676    45    1,883    45
Total       1,518   100    3,329   100    3,736   100    4,193   100
All SLTA
Public             434    55       884    50      888    49    1,076    48
Private            361    45       871    50    1,035    51    1,185    52
Total         795   100    1,755   100    1,923   100    2,261   100
SMA
Public             195    56       518    50      609    47       679    45
Private            150    44       523    50      678    53       825    55
Total         345   100    1,041   100    1,287   100    1,504   100
SD    = Primary Schools
SLTP  = All junior secondary schools
SHP   = Junior general secondary school
SLTA  = All senior secondary schools
SMA   -  Senior general secondary schools



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2.03      Progress Toward Greater Equity.  Gross enrollment rates in junior
and senior secondary education as a whole were 37.5% and 21.8% respectively
in 19-1/82. At the same time, the distribution of secondary school enroll-
ments, especially in SMAs, is very skewed in favor of urban areas. However,
in recent years, the Government has adopted locational criteria for new
public secondary schools which favor deprived rural areas. As a result,
improvements in the equity indicators are beginning to appear as Table 2.3
shows. In addition, the Government eliminated primary school fees in the
mid-1970s thereby removing one major obstacle to universal entry into grade
one for the children of the lowest income families.
Table 2.3: GINI COEFFICIENTS A1 AND PARTICIPATION RATES /2
ENROLLMENTS IN ALL SMP AND SI{A SCHOOLS
SMP                             SMA
Year        Gini    Participation       Gini       Participation
Coefficient      Rate        Coefficient       Rate
1979/80     0.159         30%            0.230           10%
1980/81     0.146          33%           0.215           12%
1981/82     0.138         37%            0.199          14%
Source: G- Criel, "Distribution of Secondary School Enrollments
in Indonesia".
2.04      Increasing Efficiency in Student Flow Rates.  Indonesian schools
have for long been hampered by high dropout and repeater rates. However,
as Aopendix Figure 2 shows, there have been dramatic improvements in these
rates for primary schools since 1970. For secondary schools, as Appendix
Figures 3 and 4 show, student year-to-year progression has also improved
over the past several years, although this has recently begun to level off.
The conclusion to be drawn is that not only are students entering school in
much greater numbers than before, but also a greater percentage than before
are managing to stay in school and complete the cycle. This is a major
accomplishment.
/1 A Gini coefficient of 0.0 indicates a condition of absolutely equal
distribution, i.e., all groups have a proportional share of the scarce
good or service which is in question. "Proportional" is of course in
reference to some suitable criterion, e.g. school-age population in the
case of enrollment. A Gini coefftcient of 1.0 would indicate a (rather
hypothetical) condition of absolute inequality, i.e. one person would
monopolize to him/herself the scarce good or service in question. Thus,
the smaller the Gini coefficient the more equal the distribution. The
Gini coefficients used here are based on a comparison of the distribu-
tion of school-age population and enrollments, grouped by province.
/2 Participation rates as used here refer to the number enrolled as a
percentage of the school-age population.



2.05      Curricular Coherence.  The multiplicity of different types of senior
secondary schools in Indonesia has sometimes been criticized (see Appendix
Figure 1) Besides general academic secondary schools there are parallel
technical schools, commercial schools, home economics schools, teacher
training schools, agricultural schools, etc. However, this arrangement has
important virtues in giving each school a clear curricular function and
simplifies their management./1
2.06      Teacher Supply.  Any school system which expands rapidly, as
Indonesia'shTais,is normally severely constrained by shortages of newly
qualified teachers. This is undoubtedly true in Indonesia's university system
and shortages will continue for some time to come. It has also been true in
recent years at the secondary and primary levels as well. However, at these
latter levels, the prospects for overall supply are improving of late. At the
primary level the years of rapid enrollment expansion are now past, and output
from tuacher training high schools (SPGs) has caught up with aggregate primary
teacher demand. Thus, there are signs of surplus primary teacher training
capacity emerging now in some parts of the country, although shortages
continue elsewhere. At the secondary level, the latest demand and supply
projections indicate an emerging balance between aggregate supply and demand
during this decade. However, shortages of fully qualified teachers, sometimes
severe, will continue in some subject areas especially in mathematics, science
and English./2
2.07      Cost Recovery.  In the public institutions, at the secondary and
university levels, parents are required to pay school fees (SPPs) according to
a sliding government fee scale./3 At the primary and secondary level the
public schools' parents associations levy upon themselves a further "contri-
bution" to the school (BP3). At all levels there are always the considerable
private costs for uniforms, transport, materials, etc. In addition, at the
higher levels of education private schools and universities are taking a
greater share of total enrollment. This is entirely appropriate given the
fiscal constraints which the Government is facing. Thus, certain flexible
financial management tools are already in place for recovering considerable
amounts of the cost of schooling from the users. For educational growth to
continue it is crucial that these tools be strengthened further. (This is
discussed in further detail in para. 4.34.)
/1 To attempt to offer a full array of prevocational or vocational
specializations in each school would increase the minimum size required
to operate specialized facilities efficiently, and create extra
administrative overheads.
/2 This problem will be discussed in paras. 3.10-3.13.
/3 The SPP school fees are collected from parents, then sent to the
Ministry of Finance before being reallocated to the provinces for
redistribution to schools as DPP funds for specific categories of
expenditure.



III. CURRENT ISSUES AND PROBLEMS
Education Sector Goals
3.01      Since its independence in 1945, Indonesia has placed the educa-
tional progress of its population very high on its list of priorities. As
we have seen in Table 2.1, this progress initially took the form of explo-
sive growth in enrollments, until about 1960. However, economic stagnation
and political turmoil in the 1960s took their toll in slowing down this
growth, though certainly never stopping it. Under the New Order Government,
and especially after the rapid rise in world oil prices, the education
sector resumed its rapid growth. This has been the goal of the five-year
plans, Repelita I, II, and III. In Repelita III the policy goals in the
education sector took on the additional emphasis of increasing equality of
opportunity in education. And in recent years, policy makers have shown
increased concern with the quality of education being provided. Thus equity
and quality have emerged side by side with educational growth as overall
policy goals.
3.02      In this chapter we will discuss the main issues and problems
emerging today in secondary education, and identify the probable source of
these problems. These are grouped into five broad categories: the quality
of output; equity; output capacity; financing; and administration. In
some cases the evidence for a "problem" is reasonably hard; in others, the
evidence is softer and more judgmental.
Educational Ouality: Issues and Problems
3.03      "Quality" as used here refers to the level of performance of
students completing a cycle of schooling. Student performance is defined in
terms of cognitive achievement, or learning. Several issues or problems are
discernible with regard to quality in general secondary education.
3.04      One key indicator that learning levels in secondary schools are
unacceptably low is the scores ot successful secondary school graduates on
the entrance examination for the ten most sought-after public universities.
The exam is commonly known by its acronym, PPI./l The maximum score on
the entire PP1 exam is 200, and simple chance or random guessing alone
would, on average, give candidates a score of 40./2 Yet candidates in
1981 who scored as low as 73 in chemistry or 76 in mechanical engineering
/1 PP1 = Proyek Perintis 1 = Experimental Project 1.
/2 H.C.A. Somerset, t"Secondary Education, Selection Examinations and
University Recruitment in Indonesia: Some Key Issues," Table 3.2. The
exam usually contains four sections worth 50 points each, or 200 points
maximum possible score. Each multiple choice question shows 5 answers
from which to choose one. Therefore a random guessing score - 200 x
1/5 = 40.



- 9 -
gained admission in the ten best, most selective public national universities
(see Appendix Table 1). The public teacher training colleges (IYIPs) have had
to maintain much lower entry standards to find students. For example the
median students admitted to Jakarta IKIP's Diploma course for future secondary
scIhool mathematics teachers scored only slightly above the random guessing
level on just the mathematics section of the exam - 11.9 out of 50./1
3.05      Effective teaching is concentrated in a very small percentage of
secondary schools. A useful way to evaluate the academic productivity of
secondary schools is to see how well their students perform on national
entrance examinations such as the PP1. First, some background information.
Only SMA and STM (senior technical school) candidates are qualified to
apply for the PP1 science (IPA) exam. The science exam is the access route
to almost any university or institute faculty, whereas the nonscience or
"arts" (IPS) exam gives access only to some faculties. In 1981/82 there were
3,378 SMAs, of which only 806 were public, and altogether about 675 STMs.
Relatively few STM graduates apply to PP1, however. Of these roughly
4,000 possible source schools, only about 2,500 or 63% of the schools provided
any PP1 science candidates in 1982.  (Many smaller SMAs are unable to organize
a science stream due to lack of facilities, equipment and staff).  In all,
87,550 students attempted the exam and 8,589 scored well enough to be
recruited into a faculty in one of the PP1 universities./2 The top 20 govern-
ment SMA schools in the country, or 0.6% of all 3,378 S?Ms?, produced 5% of the
candidates and fully 20% of the recruits, giving these schools a representa-
tion index among recruits of 33.0./3 This illustrates the extreme concentra-
tion of high quality teaching and learning among a few "action sector"/4
secondary schools.
/1 Somerset, op. cit., Table 4.3. Of course, it may be the case that the
standards set by the university examiners are unrealistically high. So
far there is no evidence to support or refute this. If true, it would
constitute another type of problem.
/2 Minimum exam scores vary between faculties and universities depending on
the places available and the numbers of high scoring applicants. Some
high scoring students fail nonetheless to gais public university
admission if both of the two faculty choices they are allowed happen to
require very high marks which they fail to reach.
/3 20% -t 0.6% = 33.3. In other words, these schools obtained 33 times
their proportional share of PP1 university places.
/4 This term, which aptly captures the contrast in educational effectiveness
between schools, originates from earlier work of Somerset.



- In -
3.06      Low quality learning can be attributed to several sources: low level
of budgetary provisions for education; over-employment of teachers; additional
resource constraints in private schools; and the malfunctioning of external
school examinations. These will be discussed in turn.
3.07      Budgeting for School Ouality Resources.  Table 3.1 shows the
budgetary provision per student in recent years./1 From 1979/80 to 1982/83
the per student budget increased an average of 22% per annum in the routine
(i.e. recurrent) budget. However, this growth actually ceased in the last
year, 1982/83. Overall provision out of the government routine budget, plus
the official SPP fee collections, amounts to about $45.02 in 1982/83, or 8.7%
of the country's 1982 GNP per capita of S520.
3.08      How does this compare with educational efforts in other countries?
A comparison with other countries in the region shows the following public
current expenditure per secondary school student: Thailand-$66 (1980);
Singapore-$780 (1981); and Malaysia-$430 (1980)./2
3.09      It can be argued that nations which need to close the development
gap also need to invest more in human resources than do wealthy countries
which already have relatively large stocks of well-educated manpower. This
suggests that Indonesia has not yet approached the level of public effort
needed to acquire high quality teaching and learning in the secondary
schools. This broad conclusion would appear to remain valid even if one
adds in the considerable private expenditures for both public and private
schooling to arrive at "total" effort. (These matters will be discussed
further in paras. 3.37, 3.38, 3.45.)
/1 Enrollments are for both private and public schools. Private schools
receive limited assistance as a matter of policy.
/2 Unesco Yearbook, 1983.



- 11 -
Table 3.1: PER STUDENT PROVISION IN ROUTINE BUDGET
AND DPP FUND FOR SMPs AND SMAs
1979/80    1980/81   1981/82      1982/83
Budget Provision
General Secondary School /a
Routine budget (Rp mln.)            45,044    85,078   136,448      153,944
Enrollments SMP + SMA /b ('000)    3,738       4,365      5,023       5,697
Per student (Rp)                    12,049    19,492    27,167       27,022
Budget provision ($1) /c             17.98     29.09      40.55       40.33
1982/83 DPP Fund /d            = Rp 17.9 billion /e - 5,697 thousand
for all Sec. Schools  = Rp 3,142   6 670
= $ 4.69
/a  Analisa, Tables 9 and 11.
/b  Including enrollments in public and private schools.
7Ic $1.00 = Rp 670.
7X   Joint Decree, Table IX.1.  This includes public schools only.
/e  Rp 17.9 billion is 87% of the total DPP Fund of Rp 20.5 billion, which
is the percentage of all secondary school students who are in either
SMP or SMA.
3.10      School Quality Resource Requirements.  In the late 1970s, the
Ministry of Education and Culture conducted two major national sample sur-
veys of final year students in SMPs (Grade 9) and SMAs (Grade 12). These
surveys sought to identify through multiple regression analyses the key
factors in both the student's background and the school which most affected
learning achievement levels./1 The following discussions will draw heavily
/1  National Assessment of the Quality of Indonesian Education:  (a) Survey
of Achievement in Grade 9; (b) Survey of Achievement in Grade 12,
Ministry of Education and Culture, Office of Research and Development,
Jakarta, 1978 and 1981, respectively. As with any cross-sectional survey
data, the results of these surveys need to be treated with caution in
drawing inferences about causality or in predicting results in a specific
instance on the basis of statistical averages. Nonetheless, these data
are richer than what is normally available in a developing country.



- 12 -
on these two studies. The two surveys found five school variables to be
critical; these are discussed below. It is fortunate that these are subject
to interventions.
(a) School Libraries. The Grade 9 survey stated "the presence of
a library in a school, along with an adequate supply of books ...
is a variable strongly associated with achievement ...  It
stands out clearly, as the most significant of a cluster of
"school quality" variables and is independent of home background
factors. This is probably the single most significant finding
of the present survey ..." Elsewhere it states "...the presence
of a school library and an adequate supply of books stand "head
and shoulders" above the (other factors) in significance". The
Grade 12 study found that once an SMA school had even as few as
250 library books "achievement was quite superior", but below
that size, achievement scores fell below average. Figures 5 and
6 in the Appendix show the relationship betweea school libraries
and achievement in graph form. It is especially noteworthy that
a quarter of the students in the SMA sample and about 35% of the
SMP sample did not have access to any school library. Further-
more, in many school libraries the book holdings turned out to be
multiple-copy textbooks rather than library reference books, as
Table 2 of the Appendix shows.
(b) In-service Teacher Training. The Grade 9 study states: "Grade 9
students taught by teachers who have been upgraded in special
in-service training courses show higher achievement ... This is a
promising finding, and suggests that the courses should be extended
wherever possible."  The survey showed these results were
positive in all five major subject fields: mathematics, science,
social studies, Bahasa Indonesia and English. Tne Grade 12 survey
came to the same conclusion, noting also that "the (in-service
teacher training - achievement) relationship remained a strong one
even after the varying backgrounds of students had been allowed
for." Figures 7 and 8 in the Appendix illustrate these
relationships.
(c) Science Laboratories. Although the Grade 9 survey did not examine
the efficacy of laboratories, the Grade 12 survey found that
"access to at least one science laboratory in an SMA is important
for achievement in ... physics, chemistry, and biology. In
addition there was a positive relationship between the number of
science experiments undertaken and total achievement, for students
in science streams." The survey found that about one quarter of
the sample SMAs did not have a science laboratory.
(d) Afternoon Schooling. The Grade 9 survey found from its multi-
variate analysis that: "There is a clear advantage to students
attending morning rather than afternoon sessions...." It observes



- 13 -
that the reasons lying behind this finding are partly climatic:
"the afternoon sessions tend to be hotter and more tiring, and
both students and teachers are liable to be affected." It also
noted that afternoon sessions tend to be shorter and are more
often taught by part-time teachers. The Grade 12 survey
initially found the same negative effects: "Achievement levels
for students attending in the afternoon were lower by 5 points
in both (arts and science) streams (5/8 of a standard deviation)
and this does seem to be a significant difference". But then
after a multiple regression analysis it concluded that afternoon
schooling of itself "explained little further variation in total
achievement." Thus the two surveys reveal some degree of
difference in the significance of this factor which is not
readily explained. However, in SMA, less able students are
placed into arts rather than science streams. Since arts streams
predominate in afternoon schools, the already lower ability of
those students may be the reason why the extra, potentially
negative effects of the afternoon session are reduced.
Ce) The Teaching Experience, Management Training and Income of the
School Principal. The Grade 12 survey found that the above
cluster of school principal's characteristics "far outweighed
the effects of any other school or home background factors... in
influencing the quality of scholastic performance in the school."
It is noteworthy that of those principals in the Grade 12 survey
who professed to have some form of preparation as principals, more
than half were self-taught. The surprising strength of the
relationship of principal's salary to achievement is partly
accounted for by the fact that such salaries are strongly related
to the size of a school. Related to this is the point that
science streams are more often found in larger, well established
schools because small schools are less able to carry and mobilize
the resources to support a science stream. In the Grade 9 survey
much less attention was given to measuring the principal's
characteristics, and therefore their importance was untested.
3.11      Teacher Issues.  A clear estimation of the extent of secondary
school teacher shortage is difficult to achieve due to an unknown amount of
double counting of teachers in the statistics. Secondary school teachers
frequently teach at two or more schools to get extra income. Therefore the
number of teaching "posts" counted in the statistics is always more than the
number of actual teacher "bodies." As a result, the counting of teacher posts
leads to calculations of misleadingly low teacher:student ratios: 1:17 in
SMPs and 1:15 in SMAs.
3.12      Allowing for some double counting of teachers, the overall supply of
SMP and SMA teachers appears to be sufficient if one applies teacher:student



- 14 -
ratios of 1:26.7 and 1:23.3 for SMPs and SMAs, respectively./l Figures 3.1
and 3.2 predict a declining overall demand for new SMP and SMA teachers after
1985. However, comparing teachers by subject (irrespective of the number
inflation due to double counting of teacher "bodies") reveals that there are
considerably fewer teachers trained in science/math and languages than there
are persons teaching those subjects.
3.13      The second teacher problem is the common practice among teachers of
teaching in two, three or even more schools simultaneously. This practice is
greatly facilitated by the existence of large numbers of private schools,
which often operate in the afternoons and evenings using the facilities of
government schools which operate in the morning. Often the staff of the
morning shift school also operate the private afternoon school. As a result
it is not uncommon for teachers to teach more than 40 or 50 periods per week
even though the official norm is 24. Under these conditions a teacher can not
be effective for each of his classes and each of his schools. By teaching so
many periods per week he may help more students spend time in school, but the
result is a watered-down quality of teaching in each class through lack of
careful preparation and lack of time to monitor and evaluate his students'
work. In addition, the school is weakened as an institution when teachers
have their loyalty divided among different schools, and are unavailable for
group and institution-building functions such as staff meetings, and
sponsoring extra-curricular activities.
3.14      Unfortunately, the present system for giving salary supplements
reinforces the practice of teaching extra classes in more than one school.
Secondary school teachers are given a salary supplement on a piecework basis,
i.e., a flat fee per hour of teaching./2 This piecework fee is paid out of
the SPP fee income collected from students. A piecework basis for payment
can even give teachers an incentive to build up the volume of pay units by
failing students in order to increase the number of repeaters and therefore
numbers of extra classes to teach. At the same time, in 1982/83 the budget
allocation for teachers' basic salaries slowed down, growing at only 1.8% from
the previous year, even while overall teacher requirements continued to grow
at over 6% p.a.J3 This combination of factors sends the wrong "signal" to
teachers to increase their volume rather than their quality of work if they
want to increase their income.
/l There are 37 periods per week on the class timetable and the official
normal teacher workload is 24 periods per week, resulting in 1.5
teachers per class. If the normal class size is 40 in SMPs and 35 in
SXAs, the resulting teacher:student (staffing) ratios are 1:26.7 and
1:23.3 respectively. The methodology for projecting the enrollments
and teacher requirements is given in A. Nazareth, "Projections of
Enrollments and Resource Requirements for Primary and Secondary Educa-
tion in Indonesia".
/2 Joint Decree of Ministers of Education and Culture and of Finance,
August 24, 1982, concerning Regulations for SPP and DPP, Appendix X.
13 Analisa, Table 13.



- 15 -
Iig. 3.1: NUMBER OF TEACHERS REQUIRED
N                    SD
U   88,6            .SMP
g                *--sJA.
a
E
R
0
F   508,Q8./
T
E
A
C   380,808-
H
E   a0,"8-- - - - - - - -_
.
s 188,888- ___---~,~,,, ................... ---''........,,  
1974  1976  1978  1989  1982  1984  1980  1 988   998  1 92  1 94
YEAR
Fig. 3.2: TOTAL NUMBER OF NEUTEACHERS REDUIRED
189,888-
s8..9s-   -so
NJ
U  86.88-          SMP
M      I ~~---- UA
E
E  78,888]-
F  50s, ee/
T
E  40,8see
A
C  38,2089*
H
E  za28822                            '\         9     =
E8.28
1974  1978  1978  198a  1982  1984  198 e988  1 998  1992  1t94
YEAR
a! i.e. for replacement and expansion.



- 16 -
3.15      The Additional Resource Poverty of Private Schools.  In recent years
private senior secondary schools and universities have been absorbing ever-
increasing shares of these large increases in enrollments, as Table 2.2 shows.
In 1982/83, 67% of the 12,361 SMPs and 76% of the 3,667 SMAs were private or
"Swasta" schools. The Grade 12 quality assessment study commented: "...at the
senior secondary level there are very few well-endowed Swasta (schools), one
reason being that schools are very expensive to build, staff, and equip at
this level. The Swasta in the sample were mostly small schools supported by
parents with about average levels of education and income, ... with young and
less experienced teachers giving lessons mostly in the afternoon only,
offering relatively poor facilities and often sharing school buildings. This
will help to account for their relatively low achievement."/l The Swasta
schools are especially deficient in science laboratories and libraries, and
experienced principals some of the key school quality inputs we noted in para.
3.10 above. This relative asset poverty is shown in Table 3.2, taken from the
sample of schools in the Grade 12 survey. The Swasta schools will require
capital aid to obtain the more costly "school quallty Inputs" to be able to
handle a science stream.
Table 3.2: AVAILABILITY OF SCHOOL LIBRARY AND SCIENCE LABORAMOkY
FACILITIES BY TYPE OF SMA SCHOOL
Percentage of Schools with:
(No. of    Any        All                              More than 502
schools   science   science    Any        More than   ot library
School      in the    labor-    labor-       library  450 books   books actually
type        sample)   atories   atories /a books    in library  textbooks
Public       (1,559)    97        59          93        68            23
Subsidi         (287)    74       45         100         77           51
(subsidized)
Bantuan          (60)    67       41          45          0           37
(aided)
Swasta          (604)    50       35          74         38           44
(fully private)
/a This implies having at least three labs: one each for physics, chemistry,
and biology.
Source: Grade 12 Quality Assessment; data breakdown provided on request by
World Bank mission; taken from S. Heyneman "Indonesian Secondary
Schools: Issues of Quality and Finance," Table 5.
/1 Grade 12 Quality Assessment, page 45.



- 17 -
3.16      The private schools are all required to follow the official
curriculum and government school inspectors carry out a relatively small
amount of supervision of them. However, private schools and universities
can set their own entrance and final examinations. Once registered for a
few years, private schools can receive limited direct government aid. Most
commonly this takes the form of giving them government paid teachers.
However, only 20% of 14,106 full-time teachers in private SMAs and 26% of
42,533 full-time teachers in private SMPs are paid by the Covernment./I In
addition, private schools have to pay another 141,000 part-time teachers
out of their own income to meet their staffing needs. Many of these part-
timers will also be teaching full or part-time in government schools as
civil servants. The private schools depend heavily on an indirect subsidy
from the government school sector, by using the physical facilities of
government schools for afternoon and evening shifts. While the private
SMAs own about 13,500 classrooms, they use another 8,400 classrooms which
they do not own, or 38% of what they use. Of these, 76% are "borrowed"
from government schools while another 15% are rented. On the other hand
the government schools own 92X of the classrooms they use. More than half
of the private SMAs, 56%, operate during the more difficult afternoon and/or
evening hours, whereas only 7% of government schools are obliged to do so.
The above picture is repeated among SMPs.
3.17      Notwithstanding the above, one can still ask whether the effects
of these "school quality inputs" diminish when compared with the powerful
prior influences of the home on learning. Studies in industrial countries
have shown that this is indeed what happens, leaving the schools to
reinforce the influence of the home and family. The multiple regression
analysis of the Indonesian Grade 9 and 12 surveys produced some interesting
results in this comparison of the two general sources of influence. First,
in the science stream fully 56% of all variance in student performance was
accounted for by either home or school variables measured in the survey; for
arts students, the corresponding figure was 49%. Out of these total amounts
/1 Rangkuman Statistik Persekolahan, 1982/83, Ministry of Education and
Culture.



- 18 -
of explained variance, Table 3.3 shows the proportions attributable to home
and school respectively. In international perspective the share of
explained variance attributable to school rather than home effects, as Table
3.4 shows, is in line with most other developing countries for which data
are available. Thus, when home background factors are controlled for,
statistically, a very substantial amount of variance in student performance
remains, which can be directly and independently attributed to school
factors taken together. Thus school variables which are susceptible to
policy influence take on considerable importance by Grade 12 - more than at
either Grade 9 or Grade 6.
Table 3.3: THE PROPORTION OF EXPLAINED ACHIEVEMENT VARIANCE
ATTRIBUTABLE TO HOME AND SCHOOL
Stream                Home            School
Arts                   54%              46%
Science                46%              54%
Source:  Grade 12 survey, with the reclassification
of the "School Type" variable from the home
background to the school block of variables.
Taken from S. Heyneman, op. cit., page 11.



- 19 -
Table 3.4: THE EFFECT OF SCHOOL AND TEACHER QUALITY ON SCIENCE
PERFORMANCE IN INDONESIA BY COMPARISON TO OTHER
COUNTRIES /a
Proportion of explained variance
in student performance
Country /b                Home               School /c          (Total R2)
OECD countries                65.2                34.8                (34.4)
Indonesia
12th grade                 46.3                 53.7 /d             (55.5)
9th grade                  66.5                33.5                (26.0)
Iran                          47.0                53.0                (17.0)
Peru                          48.0                52.0                (32.0)
Mexico                        45.0                 55.0               (26.0)
India                         10.0                90.0                (30.0)
Botswana                      31.0                69.0                (20.0)
/a Sources: For Indonesia: BP3K, National Assessment of the Quality of
Indonesian Education, 1978 and 1981. For other countries: Education
Department, the World Bank. Table taken from S. Heyneman, op. cit.
/b Analysis in all countries except Indonesia limited to 14 year olds or
8th graders. Data in fact are available on 12th graders in all countries,
but the Education Department, for lack of time and resources, has had to
concentrate upon the last year in primary school. OECD countries
included the following: Italy, Japan, Scotland, England, New Zealand,
Finland, Netherlands, Australia, Flemish and French Belgium, Germany,
Sweden and the U.S.A.
/c The proportion of explained variance is that portion of the R2 attribut-
able to the home or the school. It is a useful indicator for comparison
across studies where the level of R2 varies considerably from one to the
other.
/d Indonesia 12th grade figures have been revised; School Type is included
as a school influence independent of the home.



- 20 -
3.18      Ability Streaming.  SMA students are assigned to either a science
or an arts (language or social studies) stream at the end of the initial
"torientation semester" in their first year. These labels contain
considerably more significance, however, than their curricular "face value"
might suggest to the observer. This is perhaps primarily due to the fact
that a science stream graduate has the option of being considered for entry
to almast any faculty in the university system, whereas the arts graduate
has his choice restricted to just non-science faculties. With this prospect
in sight brighter students gravitate toward the science stream. Likewise,
the alert school principal and his staff will try to reserve scarce science
stream places for their most promising students. Thus the science stream
has become code for "the fast track". Indeed, the Grade 12 survey found
that science students clearly out-performed social studies and language
(arts) students even in civics, Bahasa Indonesia and English.
3.19      Occasionally there is a call to deal with the quality issue in
Indonesian secondary education by "introducing ability grouping". Such a
change is not warranted: for all practical purposes such grouping has
already been implemented for some time, only it is labelled differently.
The grouping takes place in the assignnent of students to their subject
streams. What this system allows, like any pre-sorting arrangement, is the
concentration of the scarcest and best teaching resources (e.g. well quali-
fied science and mathematics teachers and laboratories) on those relatively
few students who are deemed by some method to be the best able to benefit
from this investment.
3.20      School Examinations:  A Neglected School Ouality Resource.  The
quality of schooling can also be enhanced by means other than improving the
ratio of physical quality inputs to students, e.g. by "delivering" more
libraries, laboratories, or teachers who are better qualified. Quality can
also be enhanced, and at probably less expense, by making careful changes in
the key "signalling" system in formal education: the external examinations.
What is so problematic in the present situation that it calls for a reform
of school examinations?
3.21      National primary and secondary school examinations have been
abolished for well over a decade. As a result, the schools themselves cert-
ify their graduating students based on their own internal assessments and
final examinations. Not surprisingly, in view of the range of different
school quality endowments and of student intake quality between schools, the
Grade 12 survey found low and even negative correlations between teachers'
assessments and its own standardized test scores. It adds, "... (this)
suggests that assessment standards at the important Grade 12 level vary
extremely widely throughout Indonesia." Obviously, the means must be found to
"moderate" or establish parity between grades if the latter are to be of any
use in performance-based selection to either further education or employment.



- 21 -
3.22      Indeed, various mechanisms have emerged to fill this role left
vacant by the earlier abolition of national school examinations. This is
inevitable given: (a) the tremendous scarcity of places at entry stage to each
successively higher cycle of education; and (b) limited economic resources
with which to accede to social demand to open wider the doors to
opportunity./l For intake into either SMIP or SMA, local groups of schools
cooperate in administering joint competitive entrance exams. At the
university level groups of universities have likewise been cooperating to set
common or at least partially common entrance exams: not only PPI, but PP3 and
PP4 as well./2
3.23      In all these selection exams, the multiple choice format of
question has been adopted virtually throughout in the interests of easier,
mechanical processing of results. The range of intellectual skills which
can be examined is seriously constrained. Therefore, critical written
expression skills never enter into the selection decision. The resulting
"backwash effect" on the classroom scene has been to increase the use of the
multiple choice items in day-to-day teaching, at the expense of writing,
various application skills, and the use of experiments. Each exam is prepared
by representatives from those institutions into which selection is taking
place. Therefore, it is at least a question whether the candidate is being
tested on the curriculum of the school cycle which he has just completed -
rather than that of the cycle to which he is entering. SMA teachers in
particular frequently testify to the powerful "backwash effects" of the
university entrance exams as interference and never as a help to their
completing their curriculum objectives with their students.
3.24      The point here is to harness the motivational power in the class-
room of the "backwash effects" from a selection exam, which is inevitable,
and then to deliberately put that power to work for rather than against the
curriculum of the cycle being completed, through careful examination reform.
In the process the managers of the education system would acquire what they
now so sorely need - a routine, annual monitoring system to monitor
performance in schools. The monitoring information would then be fed back to
the schools where alert principals and teachers can act on it to improve their
teaching. More about that in Chapter 4, paras. 4.09-4.15.
Educational Equality
3.25      Disparities in education can exist in various forms or at various
stages in the education process, and they can exist among different kinds of
population groups. Inequality occurs in a sequence: first, provision of
basic classroom accommodation, then, provision of quality producing inputs,
/1 In this respect, Indonesia's condition is typical of any Third World
country, and quite different from that of affluent, industrial societies.
/2 A detailed discussion of this arrangement is given in R.C.A. Somerset,
op. cit.



- 22 -
e.g. especially materials, teachers, and guidance information; then,
educational outcomes especially cognitive achievement; and finally,
admission to further education or work. The different types of inequality
can be observed among the following types of population groups: provinces;
urban/rural areas; socioeconomic groups; and the sexes. Ideally, the
analysis of educational inequality would proceed through every cell in a
matrix formed by the above categories. In practice, data limitations
restrict our description of inequality. (The following discussion refers to
some of the more critical cells in the matrix.)
3.26      Enrollment Distribution across Provinces and Urban/rural Areas.
The Gini coefficients for the distribution of enrollments compared to
school-age population across provinces in 1980/81 were 0.146 for SMPs and
0.215 for SMhAs./l This compares quite favorably with similar distributions
done in other developing countries.  Furthermore, in recent years these Gini
coefficients have been improving (declining). However, the relatively even
distribution of enrollments across provinces serves to average out and thus
to mask the far more important disparities between urban and rural areas (and
even among rural areas themselves within provinces.) Although it is true
that practically all countries exhibit urban-rural disparities in
educational opportunities, the situation in Indonesia appears to be more
sharply skewed than is usual. If each province is divided into an urban and
a rural portion,/2 then the Gini coefficient rises to 0.219 for SMPs and a
high 0.390 for SMAs. A closer look in Appendix Table 5 at how over- or
under-represented each urban or rural area is in enrollments, shows that no
urban area has less than 1.4 times its proportional share of national
enrollments in SMPs or SMAs, and several have 3 or more times a proportional
share. Furthermore, all rural areas with the slight exception of Bali and
rural Yogyakarta have lower representation indices than all urban areas.
In sum, there are relatively few SLMPs and almost no SMAs located in rural
areas, whether on Java or on the outer islands. Rural students wishing to
have a secondary education are faced with the extra costs and hardships of
either migrating or commuting daily into towns or cities. The Grade 12
survey discovered that more than 302 of SMA students actually live away from
home. These difficulties imposed on students from rural areas result in a
high rate of dropout and waste of talent.
/1 For a full treatment of this issue see G. Criel, op. cit.
/2 Jakarta is entirely urban and several provinces are classified as
entirely rural.



- 23 -
3.27      Disparities in School Attendance Rates among Socio-economic Groups,
Urban/Rural Areas and Sexes. Table 3.5 below shows that school attendance is
consistently skewed in favor of higher status families, whether seen in terms
of urban/rural locale, household expenditures, parent's schooling or parent's
occupation. Table 3.5 also shows that the urban-rural gap increases strongly
with age, to the point where persons in the 16-18 age group are more than
twice as likely to attend school if they live in towns or cities. However,
contrary to what some may expect, attendance rates are consistently higher in
the outer islands (as a whole) than they are on Java. The pattern of social
skewness gets accentuated in each successive age group, so that it becomes
strongest in the 16-18 year old, senior secondary age group. Finally, except
at the primary school age level, female attendance is consistently lower.
3.28      The Distribution of Physical Classroom Accommodation Across
Provinces. A comparison of numbers of students enrolled and of classrooms
(in satisfactory condition) shows a rather even distribution of classrooms
across provinces./I No data analysis has been carried out to assess the
distribution of classrooms between urban and rural areas, however. A
comparison of the Gini coefficients for the distributions of classrooms,
enrollments, and teachers across provinces is given in Table 3.6. It shows
clearly that the inter-provincial distribution of classrooms (and teachers)
in relation to students is much more equitable than that of enrollments in
relation to school age population. The reason for this better distribution
of classrooms among provinces - leaving aside the urban-rural disparity -
is that classrooms and teachers are allocated according to plan, at least in
the public sector, whereas enrollments at the post-primary develop according
to social demand.
3.29      Disparities in the Inter-provincial Distribution of School fuality-
producing Resources. The distribution of important instructional facilities
and materials is bound to be difficult and uneven in a large country,
especially one with many impoverished private schools. In 1977 a national
assessment survey of the quality of SMA Grade 12 education was conducted in
18 provinces. The survey's inventory of quality inputs is summarized in
Appendix Table 2./2 The disparity in levels o' provision is very large. In
three provinces over half of the sample SMA schools have no science labora-
tories.  Appendix Table 2 shows similar disparities in the availability of
libraries, visual aids and books across provinces. Nothwithstanding these
/1 Appendix Table 3 shows the average ratio of students to classrooms and
corresponding Representation Indices for each province. Source: C.
Criel, op. cit.
/2 Taken from S. Heyneman, "Indonesian Secondary Schools: Issues of Ouality
and Finance," Table 3.



- 24 -
Table 3.5: SCHOOL ATTENDANCE RATES FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROUPS, 1978
Ages 7-12       Ages  13-15     Ages 16-1R
Socio-economic Characteristics    Male  Female   Male  Female   Male   Female
All Children
Indonesia                         84    82        59      47      34       22
Region of residence
Java                            83    80        57      41      30       19
Outer Islands                   86    84        62      57      40       26
Location of residence
Urban                           92    88        81      67      60       40
Rural                           82    80        54      41      27       16
Household per capita
expenditures class
Lower 40%                       81    78        48      37      20        9
Middle 30%                      84    82        60      47      30       20
Upper 30%                       91    90        77      59      57       36
Children of Household Head
Education of Household Head
No schooling                    72    72        41      31      20       10
Not completed primary school  86    80          60      41      27       23
Primary school                  90    90        76     65       57       50
Junior secondary school         97    95        84      93      72       70
Senior secondary school         99    96       100      79      92       76
Academy/University              98   100       100    100      100       99
Occupation of Household Head
Professional                    93    85        76      65      59       40
Clerical                        94    97        98     77       76       73
Sales                          100    92        93     76       76       46
Services                        86    77        66     64       36       45
Agricultural                    80    81        52      38      24       19
Production worker               90    84        63      39      45       22
Other Children                      85    78        53      39      31        8
Source:  From data tapes of SUSENAS, 1978, Biro Pusat Statistik, in Meesook,
"Indonesia: Finance and Equity in the Social Sectors" appendix
Table 1.



- 25 -
Table 3.6: GINI COEFFICIENTS FOR INTER-PROVINCIAL DISTRIBUTION OF
SECONDARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS, CLASSROOMS AND TEACHERS,
1980/81
Distributed
value                   (Criterion)                SMP            SMA
Enrollments           (School-age population)       0.146         0.215
Classrooms            (Student enrollments)         0.056         0.043
Full-time teachers   (Student enrollments)          0.065         0.056
Source: G. Criel op. cit.
the provincial distribution of school quality materials, the province-wise
distribution of teachers is (as noted in para. 3.28) quite even. Appendix
Table 4 shows the student/teacher ratios and corresponding Representation
Indices for each province.
3.30      Urban-rural Disparities in School Quality Resources.  The Grade 9
survey found that whereas 28% of urban SMP students lacked access to a school
library, 42% of students in rural SMP schools lacked access. Table 3.7 shows
the difference in the survey test scores associated with lack of access to a
school library - one of the critical "quality inputs" noted earlier. Rural
Table 3.7: SURVEY TEST SCORES FOR URBAN AND RURAL GRADE 9 STUDENTS,
ACCORDING TO THEIR ACCESS TO A SCHOOL LIBRARY
With              Without
access to            access to
library              library
Urban                   218                 179
Rural                   186                 172
Source: Grade 9 Quality Assessment.



- 26 -
students without access to a library drop in score by another third of a
standard deviation from their already low position.  (The nation-wide
average score was 190). The Grade 9 survey found that rural teachers had
fewer opportunities to attend in-service teacher training courses. But in
addition, for those who did, in-service course attendance was not
statistically associated with higher achievement by their students. The
survey report reasons, based on its other findings, that in spite of such
courses "such teachers are forced to carry on their poor habits of teaching.
There are simply not enough books and other facilities in the typical rural
school to support their newly acquired knowledge."/l
3.31      Disparities in Use of School Quality Resources between Socio-
Economic Groups. The Grade 12 survey found "that students from advantaged
home backgrounds were attending SNAs which are superior in every one of the
(quality indicators) measured in this (survey)./2 In other words there are
no mitigating or compensating policies or practices - such as scholarships
or boarding arrangements - which give able students from poor families
equal access to high ranking schools.
3.32      Disparities in Cognitive Performance across Regions.  The Grade 9
assessment survey found considerable inter-regional variation in mean scores
on tests of knowledge in the key subject areas.  Students in Jakarta and
Bali scored higiwsbt and those in Kalimantan, northern Sumatra and eastern
Indonesia scored lowest.
3.33      Access to Educational Guidance Information.  The school
curriculum in Indonesia is national and uniform; in principle all schools
have equal access to the official curriculum. However, because of the
powerful "backwash" influence of university entrance examinations, there is
a parallel teaching "agenda" or curriculum in the final years of SMA as
students focus on passing that exam. Indeed, to supplement their chances
for success, those students who can afford to take private fee charging,
coaching schools. To the extent that the entrance examination to the ten
most prestigious universities is conducted only at nine urban centers on
Java and one in northern Sumatra, it is likely that the penetration of this
"feedback" information is weak in remote areas and provinces.
3.34      Disparities in Recruitment to National Universities and Institutes
across Provinces. As we noted above the Gini coefficient for the inter-
provincial distribution of SMA enrollments compared to school age population
is a moderate 0.215. However, if one compares the distribution of recruits
to the ten public national PP1 universities and institutes to the same base
school age population - the Gini coefficient rises sharply to 0.455./3
/1 Grade 9 Quality Assessment report, page 79.
/2 Grade 12 Quality Assessment report, page 82.
/3 H.C.A. Somerset, "Patterns of University Recruitment: Regional Variations
in the Flow of Secondary School Leavers to the PP1 Universities".



- 27 -
Sources of Educational Inequality
3.35      Disparities can arise, first, in getting access to secondary
schools, then, in performing well in school, and finally, in gaining
access to the more sought-after institutions of higher education. These
inequalities arise, on the one hand, from rather obvious locational factors,
such as the lack of local schools, or of schools which are good enough to be
worth going to. On the other hand, they can also arise from private costs
and from more subtle disincentives or what might be termed institutional
factors.
3.36      Location.  Until 1982/83 new SMPs and, especially, new SMAs tended
to be located almost exclusively in the cities and larger towns. Further-
more little or no boarding facilities have been provided to accommodate
bright but poor rural youth.
3.37      Private Cost.  The private costs of secondary schooling are
another major source of inequality. As we saw in Table 3.5, school atten-
dance is heavily skewed in favor of urban families with higher household
expenditures. Because very few SMPs or SMAs include boarding facilities for
nonlocal students, students from rural areas have had to migrate and rent
lodging in towns simply to complete their secondary education, absorbing
privately the added costs which are not imposed on urban populations. Also,
Table 3.8 shows that the average annual family expenditures in support of
all SMP schooling in 1979 (including private as well as public schooling)
was nearly five times the Government's contribution to recurrent cost per
student. Family expenditures at SMA level were over ten times the
Government's contribution./l Private family expenditures also appear to be
high when compared to employee income or to GNP per capita.  Average
employee income at the time of the last SAKERNAS labor force survey was in
the range Rp 84,000 to Rp 120,000 per year./2 Family expenditures for only
one SMP student would consume half of average income; for SMA, expenditures
would more than consume average income. Private expenditures are nearly one
quarter of GNP per capita at SMF, and nearly one half at SMA.
/1 The family expenditures were obtained from a national sample survey
including 1,832 students in 26 provinces. Waskito Tjiptosasmito and
W.K. Cummings, "tStatus and Deployment of Teachers in Indonesia", 1981.
These results were confirmed in a Bank staff survey of family costs among
81 students in two schools. Counting only books, supplies, uniforms and
fees, the average annual costs were Rp 39,144 in a public SMA and
between Rp 77,000 and Rp 89,000 in a private state-subsidized SMP.
S. Heyneman, "Indonesian Secondary Schools; Issues of Quality and
Finance", Tables 6 and 7.
/2 The Labor Force Situation in Indonesia 1978, Table XX.



- 28 -
Table 3.8: FAMILY COSTS OF SECGNDARY SCHOOLING, 1979/80 PRICES
SMP            SMA           SPG /a
Total family cost of schooling: Rp /b   58,400            122,000        103,700
i Rp 670 = $1.00                               87.16          182.09         154.
As percentage of average employee
Income (1978)/c                              57%            120Z           102%
As percentage of 1979
GNP p.c. ($370)                             24%             49%            42%
As percentage of Gov't Routine
budget per student (1979)/d               485%          1,013%             -
Portion of total family costs for /b
Fees (SPP and BP3)                     10,800  18%   25,500  21%  20,800  20%
Transportation                          7,500  13%   21,500  18%  22,500  22%
Pocket money                           14,900  25%   31,700  26%  21,800  21%
Equipment                              12,200  21%   17,200  14%  13,600  13X
Uniform                                 8,000  14%   13,900  11%  11,400  11%
Other                                   5,000   8%   10,200   8%  13,600  13%
/a  SPGs are teacher training high schools at the same level as SMAs.  All
SPGs in the sample were government schools while 20% of SMAs were high
cost private schools.
/b Waskito Tjiptosasmito and W. K. Cummings, "Status and Deployment of
Teachers in Indonesia", 1981, Table 3.15.
/c SAKERNAS, 1978.
/d Table 3.1.



- 29 -
3.38      In short, the private cost of secondary schooling is high for the
average family, even without considering the opportunity cost of income
foregone. This is in sharp contrast to the relatively low expenditures on
secondary schooling through the government budget, as a percentage of GNP
per capita, as noted in para. 3.08 above. Such a high private investment
cost naturally tends to prevent the poor from investing in education, in
spite of the future benefits to be derived./l
3.39      "Institutional" Ba-riers.  We have noted briefly that the
province-wise distribution of PP1 university recruits is unequal in relation
to the distribution of the relevant age group population, with a Gini
coefficient of 0.455. The selection process contributes to the differences
between provinces. Table 3.9 disaggregates the key phases of selection and
shows the Gini coefficient for each step toward entry in a PP1 university:
Grade 12 enrollment, application and finally recruitment (based on the
written PP1 entrance examination scores to these ten prestigious and heavily
government-subsidized universities and institutes)./2 The highest Gini's are
for the distributions of applicants compared to Grade 12 SMA students - both
science and arts students. On the other hand the Gini's for the recruits
(high scorers) compared to applicants are very low. What this signifies is
that regional inequality in this most important educational outcome is not
primarily a matter of cognitive performance on the examination. Instead,
the greatest differentiators are in the "institutional" factors which shape
a Grade 12 student's decision whether or not to compete in the PPI entrance
examination. It is especially noticeable that students on Java and in north
Sumatra are the only groups who are overrepresented among the applicants.
These are the provinces where all the PP1 universities and institutes are
located. It may be that students .-rom other provinces are either not
adequately informed about PP1 universities, or are simply too distant from
the PP1 examination centers to attend either as examinees or subsequently as
students./3
/1 See Chapter 4 below.
/2 However, the examination score cut-off points vary for certain
economically advanced ethnic groups.
/3 Although the PP1 examination approximates most closely a national
examination, it is physically administered only at the PPI member
institutions.



- 30 -
Table 3.9:  DISTRIBUTION OF SMA ENROLLMENTS, APPLICATIONS ANT
RECKUITMENT TO PP1 UNIVERSITlES/INSTITIJTES ACROSS PROVINCES, 1982
Province with
highest represen-
Stage         Distribution of:/a            Gini coefficient       tation indices
R.I.
1          Grade 12 enrnllment:                0.217            Jakarta      (2.23)
(vs. 18 year old                                    Yogyakarta  (2.23)
population)
2           Science Applicants to PPI                           Java Timus  (1.47)
universities:                    0.278            Jakarta      (1.46)
Arts Applicants to PP1                              Yogyakarta  (1.79)
universities:                    0.308            Jakarta      (1.52)
(vs. grade 12 enrollment)
3          PP1 Science Recruits                0.146            Bali         (1.74)
Yogyakarta  (1.51)
PP1 Arts Recruits                  n.nqO            Yogyakarta  (1.2R)
(vs. PP1 Applicants)                                Jawa Tengah (1.16)
Combined     PP1 Recruits (Science Arts)         0.455            Yogyakarta  (4.8n)
stages      (vs 18 year old population)                         Jakarta      (2.20)
/a  The base population for computing the Gini coefficient for each distri-
bution is shown in parenthesis.
Source: H.C.A. Somerset, "Patterns of University Recruitment: Regional Varia-
tions in the Flow of Secondary School Leavers to the PP1 Universities."
Enrollment and Output Capacity
3.40      Enrollments in general and technical secondary schools have grown
rapidly in the past decade (Table 2.1). In recent years, most of this growth
has taken place in private schools (Table 2.2). Gross enrollment rates for
all types of secondary education are given in Table 3.10. As fast and as
steadily as these rates are growing, they are still below the regional
average, as Table 3.11 shows. The competitive regional and world economy
places a premium on the educational quality of a nation's labor force.
Enrollments in secondary and higher education will need to increase even
further if they are to catch up to today's regional norms. It is therefore
altogether appropriate that growth rates in the 112-13% range of recent years
continue.



- 31 -
Table 3.10: SECONDARY ENROLLMENT RATES IN INDONESIA,
1978/79-1981/82
(Z)
All schools              1978/79    1979/80    1980/81    1981/82   1982/83
Junior secondary           28.7        31.0       34.5        37.5     40.8
Senior secondary           15.1        17.9       19.4        21.8     23.6
All secondary              22.2        24.8       27.3        30.0     32.6
Source:  Rangkuman, Statistik Persekolahan and World Bank staff population
estimates.
Table 3.11: SECONDARY EDUCATION ENROLLMENT RATES
EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC REGION
China (1981)            38%            Philippines (1979)         55%
Korea (1982)            84%             Singapore (1980)          55%
Malaysia (1980)         65%             Solomon Islands (1980)   18%
Papua N. Guinea (1980) 12%              Thailand (1980)           29%
Source: World Bank Comparative Education Indicators (1983).
3.41      Historically, a comparatively high percentage of Indonesian senior
secondary school places have been in vocational schools of various types.
Table 3.12 shows the recent trend in vocational share at the junior and senior
secondary level respectively. At the junior level, vocational schools are
steadily giving way to general schools and will almost disappear if this trend
continues. This trend is undoubtedly a response to relative demand for
knowledge and skill levels in the labor market. This trend is even more
advanced among private junior secondary schools where parents are presunably
more conscious of income signals and more likely to compare the benefits with
the costs of schooling. At the senior secondary level, vocational-type
schools (including teacher training) still make up about 34X of enrollment.
This is a high proportion by regional standards, as seen from Appendix
Table 6. Only the centrally planned (socialist) economies, plus a handful of
countries in Latin America and Europe devote a higher share of secondary
schooling to vocational schools.



- 32 -
Table 3.12: DISTRIBUTION OF SECONDARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS BETWEEN
GENERAL AND VOCATIONAL SCHOOLS, 1977-1982/83
(in 'OOOs)
Junior Secondary             Senior Secondary
Voca-                        Voca-
Total   General  tional    Total   General  tional
1977                         2,340    2,029    311        1,108      492      616
10n%      87%    13%         1noz      44%      56%
1978/79                      2,674    2,271    403        1,290      604      686
100n      85%    15%        i0n%       47%      532
1979/80                     2,983    2,894       89       1,574      843      731
1002      97%      3%        100%      54%      46%
1980/81                      3,412    3,329      83       1,755    1,n36      719
1OZ      98X      2%        100%      5Q%      41%
1981/82                      3,809    3,736      73       2,024    1,287      737
1002      98%      2%        100%      64%      36%
1982/83                      4,273    4,193      80       2,262    1,504      758
100%      98%      2%        100%      66%      342
(1982/83) Public only:         100%      97%      3X        100%      63%      37%
(1982/83) Private only:        100%      99%      1%        100%      70%      30%
Source: Rangkuman, Stalistik Peresekolahan.
3.42      A further useful insight into effective demand comes again from the
private school sector. Here, enrollments in the private technical/vocational
senior secondary schools have stagnated in recent yecrs even while private
SMA enrollments have continued an exponential growth curve.
3.43      The rapid and responsive growth of private school enrollments is
one of the most significant developments in Indonesian secondary education.
It poses certain risks in terms of equity and the quality of learning as
many such schools are small, impoverished operations and located in urban
centers. However, it also embodies a low subsidy approach to financing
secondary education which is most conducive to rapid growth especially in
times of fiscal constraint.



- 33 -
3.44      The chief source for the limited enrollment and output capacity in
general secondary education is also an obvious one. Until 1982/83 public
investment in expanding secondary education was very limited in relation to
the explosive demand. Table 3.13 shows the limited investments in expanding
all junior and senior secondary schooling (not just general) before 1982/83.
At a notional capital unit cost of Rp 1,300,000 per student place, these
investments would have permitted the construction of the equivalent of only
173 schools of 500 students per year on average for three years before
1982/83. This provided enough accommodation for about 259,000 students
single shift, or 390,000 if half of the schools operated on double shift.
At the same time the secondary school age population (13-18) grew in size by
about 1,560,000./1 Thus this rate of construction was keeping up with only
25% of population growth. It is only because of the far more rapid growth
of private school enrollments, that overall accommodation has been able to
keep ahead of population growth. Many of the private schools come into
existence simply by adding an afternoon or evening shift to an existing
school, thereby avoiding additional capital outlay.
Table 3.13: PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN SECONDARY EDUCATION IN THE
DEVELOPMENT BUDGET, 1979/80-1982/83
(Rp '000,000)
Development
budget                  1979/80       1980/81      1981/82     1982/83
Jr. Secondary Education           30,000        52,067       71,392     205,165
Sr. Secondary Education           43,200        63,664       76,818     120,000
Total                         73,200      115,731      148,210     325,165
Source: Analisa, Table 10.
/1 Rp 73.2 + 115.7 + 148.3 billion - 337.2 billion, divided by Rp 1.3
million   259,384 student places or 519 schools with 500 places in each,
ever 3 years.  519 - 3 - 173 schools per year.



- 34 -
Financing Secondary Education
3.45      Table 3.14 summarizes recent levels of government financing.
As a percentage of GDP, the trend is distinctly up since 1979/80. How-
ever, when seen in comparison with education expenditure levels in other
countries, Indonesia's low budgetary effort is apparent (Tables 3.15, 3.16
and Comparative Education Indicators in Table 7 of the Appendix).
Table 3.14: FINANCING OF EDUCATION IN GOVERNMENT BUDGET
AND AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP
(Rp '000,000)
1979/80     1980/81     1981/82      1982/83     1983/84
I.Total Government                                                    /c          /d
Budget /a          5,505,200   9,120,500  12,339,200  17,700,000  20,560,400
2.Education Youth and
Religion Sector
Budget /a            498,565      808,081   1,147,786   1,653,330   2,034,000
Z of total             9.1          8.9         9.3          9.3         9.9/d
3.Department of
Education
and Culture
'Budget la           350,030      547,446     747,025   1,004,821       n.a.
Z of total             6.4          6.0         6.1          5.7
4.GDP (in current
prices)/b         32,025,000  45,446,000  54,027,000  59,956,000  73,251,000
5.Education Sector
Budget as percen-
tage of GDP
(2) - (4)             1.6%         1.8%        2.1%         2.8%        2.8%
/a Includes Development and Routine Budgets.
/b Taken from Country Economic Memorandum, 1983, Annex III, Table 2.1
TW Bank estimate based on first semester information.
/d Draft budget estimate
Source: Analisa. Tables 3 and 15a.



- 35 -
Table 3.15: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT FINANCING OF
EDUCATION SECTOR: PERCENTAGE OF GNP
Most recent
1970            1975                 year
%               x                   X
Indonesia                         2.8              3.0             2.i) (1978)
India                             2.8              2.9              3.2 (197q)
Japan                             3.9              5.5              5.8 (1979)
Korea (Republic of)               3.6              2.2              3.4 (1979)
Malaysia                          4.4              6.3              5.8 (1979)
Philippines                       2.6              1.9              2.0 (1Q79)
Singapore                         3.1              3.0              2.9 (1979)
Thailand                          3.5              3.6              3.2 (1979)
Germany (F.R.)                    3.7              5.1              4.7 (1979)
United States                     6.6              6.6              6.4 (1979)
Source: UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1982, Table 4.1.
-Table 3.16:  EDUCATION EXPENDITURES AS PERCENTAGE OF GNP - ASIA REGION
C. 1970-1973               late 1970s
"Typical Country"                     3.04                    3.45 (East Asia
Pacific)
Indonesia                             2.17                    n.a.
Burma                                 3.11                     1.42
Korea (Republic of)                   3.37                    3.73
Malaysia                              4.99                    5.23
Nepal                                   .73                   1.37
Pakistan                              2.80                     1.52
Papua New Guinea                      5.04                    6.37
Philippines                           4.93                    3.20
Singapore                             2.42                    2.31
Sri Lanka                             4.90                    2.87
Thailand                              2.97                    3.33
Sources:  Zymelman, "Patterns of Educational Expenditures", World Bank
Staff Working Paper No. 246, 1976 and "Educational Expenditures in
the 1970s", World Bank, Education Department, 1982.



- 36 -
3.46      Private Secondary Schools.  The Government has a deliberate policy
to allow and indeed to expect a major role in education for "the family and
the society," in addition to the Government's contribution. In practice,
not only private organizations, but also many local groups or communities
have raised funds to establish and support what are loosely called "private"
schools. The connotation of "private" can be misleading, however. Some of
the private secondary  :hools are indeed excellent, even elite, institutions.
But the great majority of them could as readily be called "self-help" or
"community" schools. These depend very heavily on local contributions and
take in students from the local or surrounding population. Without either a
dependable local revenue base or central government subsidy, most so-called
private secondary schools struggle as marginal institutions, constituting a
"facade" sector in contrast to the small "action" sector schools in which
effective teaching and learning are concentrated.
3.47      Under a new decree, PP 28 /1 the Governnent is prepared to give
grants to private schools for operating, but not (yet at least) for capital
costs. The mechanism is new and apparently not in much use as yet. Each
grant application to the Minister of Education is supposed to include the
school's plans to raise additional school funds privately while using the
government grant.
3.48      Fees in Public Schools.  Families are also expected to contribute
to the costs of education for society by paying school fees (SPP) for children
in the state schools. However, since 1978 the SPP fees in primary schools
have been replaced by a government subsidy. Meanwhile, the SPP fees at
secondary and university level have remained unchanged in nominal terms in
spite of inflation. Thus in real terms they declined by one-third between
1975/76 and 1980/81./2 The percentages of recurrent expenditure per public
school student which are recovered by fees (in 19R0/81) are:/3
Junior secondary:   6%
Senior secondary:  10%
University       :  13%
These percentages are rather high compared to OECD countries and do not
take account of the considerable private costs of schooling. Yet the
subsidy issue remains: given that such large majorities of post-primary
school age youth are not in public school and given the large excess
/1  PP28 translates into "Government Regulation Number 28 of 1981, concern-
ing the Distribution of Aid to Private Schools."
/2  Meesook, op. cit., p. 29.
/3  Ibid, Table 1.  There are no fees at the primary level.



- 37 -
private demand for secondary schooling, should the public schools recover an
even greater share of their costs from users through higher fees so that
more schools could be opened and operated with government subsidies? As it
is, the secondary and especially higher education enrollments, and therefore
the subsidies, are heavily biased to upper and middle income families./I
3.49      To recapitulate briefly, the following factors condition Govern-
ment's options for educational financing.
(a) Indonesia's secondary enrollment rates are comparatively low
and effective teaching is concentrated in a relatively few
schools, indicating a need for substantially increased investment
levels in future;
(b) even though the Government has recently raised its financial
contribution sharply, the government contribution to the cost
of education is still comparatively low;
(c) the government revenue base is now being seriously eroded by
the fall in world oil and commodity prices;
(d) "private" (self-help) SMA schools are growing exponentially
as a response to the demand for schooling in excess of the
government SMA sector's capacity;
(e) cost recovery in the public secondary schools has declined
lately in real terms; and
(f) low teachers salaries and "piecework" salary supplements weaken
the quality of teaching.
Under these conditions the chief financing issues are whether the Government
can increase the education share of a severely constrained budget, and even
if it can increase the share, whether the amount of education financing will
remain constrained or even shrink due to a reduced overall budget. Given
that a relatively constrained level of government financing of education is
the most likely result, the issues become:
(i)  how can the users (families and local communities) be
induced to increase their contributions to the increasing
total cost of education, given the prospect of rapidly rising
post-primary enrollments; and
(ii) how can the Government's financing be made more cost
effective in terms of educating more students at lower
unit cost, without a fall in the qaality of educational
outcomes.
/1 Ibid., page 22 and Appendix, Table 10.



- 38 -
3.50      One cause for some optimism in this constrained environment is
that the near-universalization of primary education means that the share of
capital funds allocated to primary education should naturally begin to
decline in the near term, freeing capital funds for secondary and higher
education. Mest of the physical capacity for primary education has now been
built, and most of the additional required teachers are either trained or
are already in training. Furthermore, because of a lower population growth
rate than was foreseen in 1981,/1 and allowing for realistic pupil dropout
rates, primary school (SD) enrollments will not grow to 30 million by 1990
as projected in the 1982 World Bank Economic Report on Indonesia./2
Instead, SD total enrollments are estimated to settle into a "steady state"
level of enrollments of about 23 million, or roughly even with enrollments
in 1982/83.13
3.51      Cost Recovery through Public School Fees.  The practice of
requiring the users of public schools to pay a share of costs is firmly in
place. However, the scheduled range of fees allowed has not been adjusted
upward to keep up with inflation and rising per capita incomes. In addition
the schools themselves have little incentive to raise the fees. This is
because under the fee system, the amounts of SPP fees collected by a school
and passed on to the Government are not directly related to the amounts of
DPP funds the school receives back from the Government. If they were
related, parents as well as school principals would have every incentive to
raise their fees voluntarily to a higher levcl within the scheduled range of
fees, since the pupils and the school as a whole would see the direct
benefit. The present system allows for higher SPP fees collected in schools
in higher income areas to subsidize the schools located in lower income
areas where parents are presumed to be too poor to be willing to pay a
higher fee.
3.52      Grants to Private Schools.  As described above the Government
provides operating grants to private schools. However the PP28 regulations
do not provide for capital grants. This has apparently not stopped the
private sector from expanding rapidly in the aggregate. However, private
SMA growth is also very uneven. It is heavily concentrated in urban areas,
in Bali, and in a few rural provinces where there is a long tradition of
church-related schools. In the urban areas, the growth of private schools
has already been given a major "hidden" capital subsidy by the common
practice of establishing such schools as afternoon or evening shifts on the
premises of a public school which operates only in the morning.
/1 Current projections based on an analysis of the 1980 census results
were not available at the time.
/2 "Indonesia: Financial Resources and Human Development in the Eighties,"
No. 3795-IND, May 5, 1982, World Bank, para. 6.15 and Table 6.1.
/3 See Appendix, Table 8.



- 39 -
Administration
3.53      Two broad administrative problems are emerging with respect to the
rapid growth of secondary education. The first concerns the extent and pace
of administrative decentralization. Today, well over 5,000 public secondary
schools and 140,000 teachers in those schools are administered jointly by
department headquarters staff in Jakarta and provincial staff of only about
250 supervisois in 27 provincial offices./I In addition they have to pro-
vide quality supervision of over 10,600 private secondary schools with up to
190,000 (including part-time) teachers. Thus, on average, each supervisor
covers about 62 public and private secondary schools. No supervisory staff
below the province level exist for secondary schools, even though three
provinces on Java include populations of about 30 million persons. Super-
visory officials are already hindered by being too remote from the schools
they are supposed to know and guide. This problem will become worse as the
number of secondary schools increases.
3.54      A second problem concerns the sharp differentiation between public
and so-called private schools. Some private schools are well endowed with
resources by state school standards. They may prize their independence and
are able to select the best candidates for their student intake. However,
as previously mentioned, the bulk of the so-called private schools are
resource-poor and would benefit significantly from even limited state aid,
which they eagerly seek. Provided these schools abide by the official
curriculum, their exclusion from public funds will tend to accentuate the
differences between the "action" and "facade" sector schools. Would a more
liberal use of a grant-in-aid system to greater numbers of self-help schools,
under PP28, provide a higher return on investment for the Government's
limited budgetary resources, than the present practice of providing heavy
subsidy to a smaller number of fully public schools?
The Return on Investment in Secondary Education
3.55      Does secondary education help to increase the efficiency and pro-
ductivity of the Indonesian economy? Cross-sectional surveys of the labor
force have shown that unemployment rates are high--20Z for junior secondary
school leavers and 26% for senior secondary school leavers between ages 20
and 24. But these same surveys have shown a major drop in the unemployment
rate as young people get slightly older (ages 25-29)- to 6% for junior
secondary school leavers and 7% for senior secondary school leavers./2 This
suggests that the high unemployment figures might be associated with youth,
implying that job prospects get better as an individual acquires more exper-
ience and persists in his search.
/1 Department of Education and Culture, "Draft Report of the Preinvestment
Study on the Improvement of Secondary General Education", 1982, Table
IV.3.
/2  SAKERNAS, 1978.



- 40 -
3.56      But do the job prospects associated with higher levels of edu-
cation come early enough and are they sufficiently more rewarding to justify
the expansion of secondary education? The Department of Education recently
conducted a national tracer survey to probe more carefully inr'! this
question, and into related questions concerning the labor market performance
of various types of primary and secondary school leavers./1 The findings:
(a) The rates of return are high to all forms of secondary education
in Indonesia. This is because the demand for secondary school
graduates appears to be expanding at a faster rate than the supply
of such graduates.
(b) Table 3.17 indicates that the returns are somewhat lower to vocat-
ional streams, but this is for two legitimate reasons. Vocational
subject unit costs average 50% higher than the costs of academic
subjects. Secondly, vocational schools are not able to attract
the best students; entry to them often represents a second choice
for students denied access to academic schools for reasons of
ability and/or availability. Thus, lower quality entrants and
higher costs help explain the somewhat lower returns, which are
not an indictment of vocational schools. They continue to play a
useful role in the spectrum of educational opportunities at the
senior secondary level.
(c) The rates of return are higher for senior secondary graduates
(SLTA) than for junior secondary graduates (SLTP). This differ-
ence is due to the relative scarcity of senior secondary school
opportunities and the relatively low unit costs for senior
secondary education.
Cd) Statistics indicating high rates of unemployment appear to be due
not to long processes of searching for jobs but to rather sporadic
job searches. This on-again-off-again behavior "bunches" together
cohorts of graduates thereby statistically driving unemployment
rates upwards.
(e) The time taken to find a better job, rather than taking the first
job available is itself an investment. A year's "job search"
delay can yield a real rate of return of more than 21%./2
/1 See D. Clark, "How Secondary School Graduates Perform in the Labor
Market: A Study of Indonesia", World Bank Staff Working Paper, No.615,
1983.
/2 Ibid. p. 30.



- 41 -
(f)  As is often the case,Il the high rates of unemployment
incidence are a sharply declining function of age, or time since
graduation. Thus the high rates found in the age group 20-24
are not an indication of crisis.
(g) Senior secondary school graduates (excluding specially trained
teachers) were half again as li-tvly to be working for private
employers rather than for either the Government, government
enterprises, or the military.
Table 3.17: SOCIAL RATES OF RETURN FOR SENIOR SECONDARY
SCHOOL GRADUATES, 1978
Compared to primary graduates                 Academic  Vocational   All
If average senior secondary
graduate has to wait:
0 years to get a job                           32%       18%        24%
1                                              26        14         19
2                                              22        12         16
3                                              19        10         14
Senior secondary education (SLTA) compared
to graduates of junior secondary
education (SLTP)                                                    27%
Junior secondary graduates (SLTP) compared
to primary graduates (SD)                                           22%
Source: D. Clark, op.cit., p.46. The calculations are confined to
urban males.
J1 G. Psacharopoulos, "Higher Education in Developing Countries: A
Cost-Benefit Analysis," Work Bank Staff Working Paper No. 440,
1980, p. 4.



- 42 -
Table 3.18: LABOR MARKET RESULTS IN 1978, MALE, OUT-OF-SCHOOL
MEMBERS OF TRACER STUDY COHORT, BY LOCATION
Jakarta Other Java Non-Java
Proportion of those wanting work had jobs:
SMA                                            38%       58%       67%
SMEA                                            -        73        36
STM                                            68        53        62
Mean earnings of those with work (Rp 1,000/mo):
SMA                                            22        19        19
SMEA                                            -        17        17
STM                                            28        20        13
Note:  Blanks appear where sample is too small for accurate estimates.
Source: D. Clark, op.cit., p. 49.
3.57      The conclusion from these findings is that secondary education, and
in particular general secondary education, has been worth the investment.
This conclusion should come as no surprise. Table 3.19 shows the relative
scarcity of educated manpower in the labor force. This scarcity will help to
maintain the recent high rates of return to secondary as well as higher
education.
Table 3.19: EDUCATIONAL QUALIFICATIONS OF THE LABOR FORCE, 1976
(Percent)
Higher         Secondary       < Primary
education
Indonesia                         0.7              9.3             90.0
Malaysia /a                       1.8             25.8             72.4
Thailand                          2.2              5.8             92.0
Korea /b                         10.4             60.6             29.0
Philippines                      12.0             18.0             7n.0
/a 1974.
79 1975.
Source: Indonesia, Central Bureau of Statistics; Thailand, Labor Force
Survey (1976); Philippines, National Manpower Plan (1978); World
Bank estimates (Korea); Malaysia, Labor Force Survey (1974).



- 43 -
4. SOME PRINCIPLES FOR INVESTMENT POLICY AND ACTION
4.01      This chapter will attempt to outline reasonably consistent
approaches for dealing with the problems which have been raised up to this
point.
4.02      Provision of School Quality Inputs.  The Grade 9 and 12 Quality
Assessment Surveys, which were discussed in Chapter 3, pinpointed two key
quality-producing resources. These were: school libraries and science
laboratories. The survey also learned that these resources are very
unequally distributed. These resources, together with books and lab equip-
ment, would therefore be priority investments in a program to raise quality
and improve equity.
4.03      Teacher Development.  The two quality surveys identified
in-service training of teachers as anot-Ler key factor affecting achievement
scores. Given that an increasing proportion of science, math and English
teachers are receiving only diploma rather than degree training, the need
for an expansion of in-service training of teachers is indicated.
Improving Quality
4.04      Extensive "multi-jobbing" by teachers is an important obstacle to
high quality secondary schooling. Its source is in the relatively low
official base pay of teachers, in a tight teacher labor market, and in the
piecework method of paying salary supplements to teachers described in
Chapter 3. Since teachers' salaries are the dominant item in the Routine
education budget, the Government is likely to resist raising base salaries
even though this would somewhat reduce the incentive to "multi-job". The
tight labor market is likely to continue due to continued growth of
enrollments. It is therefore difficult to avoid a pessimistic conclusion on
the policy options for addressing this problem directly in the near term.
Obviously the expansion of output of new secondary teachers should continue in
order to increase the supply of teachers and thereby reduce opportunities
for multi-jobbing./1
4.05      Finally, salary supplementation should be based on experience and
qualification rather than piecework, to remove incentives for increasing the
volume instead of the quality of teaching. Salary supplementation should be
concentrated on those teaching subjects which are in short supply.
/1 Of course, a simultaneous change in teacher remuneration would be needed
to prevent a continuing movement of teachers to more lucrative
occupations.



- 44 -
4.06      Curricula and the Allocation of Teaching Time.  There is nearly
universal recognition that the ordinary primary or secondary school has a
comparative advantage in the teaching of language, number skills, scientific
skills and social studies - what is commonly called the core curriculum.
The list of subjects on the school timetable almost always grows beyond this
core of subjects, but at a certain point all available teaching time is
exhausted. At that point, there is a trade-off. The addition of new
subjects must be at the expense of other subjects.
4.07      In recent times general secondary schools have been especially
prone to an over-extension of their school timetables, under such labels as:
curriculum diversification, "comprehensivization" or vocationalization.
But for one school to be all things to all people requires a large-scale
operation as well as considerable managerial talent if it is to be run
economically. Fortunately in Indonesia, the pressure to vocationalize the
SMA curriculum is greatly reduced because of the existence of various
parallel specialized technical and vocational schools. Nonetheless, there
is an allocation of four out of 37 weekly periods to "prevocational skills".
It is unclear how thoroughly this part of the timetable is followed up to
the present.
4.08      The policy principle at issue here is that teaching and learning
take place within finite time, which is as scarce a resource as teachers and
instructional materials. Indeed, time is a resource with a multiplier
effect on other resources: efficient use of time will maximize benefits (and
vice versa) from the costliest of inputs, namely teachers. The planning of
educational quality requires careful attention to planning the most
effective use of time and of time bound resources for learning. Time
available for teaching should be allocated heavily to whatever it is that
schools - compared to other delivery systems - can teach best./l
4.09      School Curricula and the Reform of Examinations.  Even though a
common, national final examination for secondary schools was abolished more
than ten years ago, universities and other postsecondary institutions still
have a need to select their entrants in a way which is fair and efficient.
Ir,evitably university entrance examinations have grown up to fill the void
left by the absence of a common secondary school leaving examination. Three
parallel university entrance examinations now operate./2 The PPI examination
is the most difficult, and the most popular of these examinations as it
governs access to the most sought-after universities. It has come to exert
a powerful "backwash" influence on the SMAs, so much so that final year SMA
students are frequently released some months before the end of the school
year so they can take tuition in private "cramming" schools just for PP1.
/1 As a broad generalization, curriculum diversification programs work
best in countries where well over half of the age cohort attend secon-
dary school and therefore the need (and economies of scale) to accommo-
date a greater range of subject interests are more likely to be present.
/2 See Somerset, op. cit. for description.



- 45 -
4.10      Thus the university entrance examinations have come into conflict
with the secondary school curricula. It need not be so. Secondary curri-
cula and end-of-school examinations can be structured to support each other.
This would occur if performance on a common secondary school leaving
examination determined one's selection in the competition for university
entrance, thus eliminating the need for a separate, additional entrance
examination.
4.11      Such a leaving examination could also achieve other equally
Important objectives, besides its critical function of allocating public
university places efficiently to the highest performers. The examination
could become a powerful mechanism by which to monitor and improve the
quality of teaching in schools as the basis on which to build an
"intelligence" or management information system, down to the level of each
school./1 This mechanism can be created, first, by analyzing the patterns
of actual responses to examination questions to determine the most common
errors, and then determining the reasons why students chose these most
common wrong answers. This involves breaking down the logical steps
involved in each question, retracing the error to faulty learning or
teaching, and pointing out where a correction is needed. This approach
differs significantly from conventional so-called "item analysis."/2
4.12      Secondly, this "guidance" information should be fed back quickly
to: the national level education staff, provincial supervisors, school
principals, teachers and teacher educators, through examination reports,
in-service courses and pre-service teacher training. The examination
feedback reports should also include rankings of districts and schools by
their mean exam scores, to show local education staff and school teachers
their relative performance as an incentive to pull themselves up In future.
Thus, two types of feedback or management information are needed: guidance
information on how to change classroom teaching; and incentive information
to stimulate local education officials and principals to pull their
institutions up to higher levels of performance.
4.13      The heavy use of examination material to generate guidance inform-
ation for teachers assumes of course that the quality of the examination
questions is technically very high indeed. Exam item writing should be
approacbed as a labor-intensive craft to be undertaken by the most skilled
/1  This approach to examination reform is described carefully and concretely
in R.C.A. Somerset, "Examination Reform, The Case of Kenya," to be
published as a World Bank Staff Working Paper.
/2  This approach is illustrated in a further paper by Somerset based on some
items from the English language section of the 1982 PP1 examination:
"The Potential Contribution of Examinations to School Quality
Improvement."



- 46 -
professional educators available in the country. Items must be subjected to
panels of critical reviewers before they are put to use. A large country
like Indonesia can achieve considerable economies of scale by preparing and
conducting an examination and feedback system on a national scale. The unit
cost per graduate of such a system could be far less than other quality
improvement measures.
4.14      The examination's cognitive and skill content should be drawn
directly from the curriculum's own goals. These curriculum goals should
take full account of the intellectual needs of the majority of students who
will not proceed to a university, but who will instead directly enter the
often harsh world of work, where they will need to survive and hopefully
prosper by their wits, without the help of a diploma.
4.15      In summary, the purpose of this type of examination reform in
secondary education would be to harness the capacity of the selection exami-
nation to motivate students and teachers, and to put that motivational force
to work raising the quality of teaching and learning. The curriculum and
the examination should reinforce each other by beaming identical, instead of
conflicting, "signals" into the classroom as to what should be taught and
learnt.
4.16      Private Schools and Quality Improvement.  Private SMAs and SMPs
tend to be either among the very best or the worst schools. By contrast,
public schools tend to be concentrated around the mean. High quality
private schools also tend to be high cost. By offering an education at full
cost to those with means to pay for it, they relieve the Government of
subsidizing those who least need to have their education subsidized.
Therefore on financial and equity as well as educational quality grounds,
such institutions should be given the latitude to grow independently while
public school subsidies should be aimed primarily at students from low-
income families.
4.17      However, the typical private school is a weak institution.  As
noted earlier at least half of them are small, having fewer than six
classes, or two classes per grade. They are therefore often not able to
make efficient use of science laboratories and libraries. Priority should
be given to raise them to a minimum size and standard of resource provision,
by capital grants-in-aid. Provided they can generate a minimum of operating
revenue from fee income, they should also benefit from operating grants
under the PP28 system.
Improving Equity
4.18      No country has ever been successful in creating a truly equal
education system, i.e. in the sense that all groups in society receive
exactly proportionate educational opportunities, resources and results,



- 47 -
leading to a Gini coefficient for the country of O.0. However, a great deal
can be done to improve the equality of opportunities and resources in
increments. The following are some principles or "rules of thumb" to take
into account.
4.19      The Quality-Equity Trade-Off.   Developing countries are always
forced into making investment choices because of scarce resources. In
education one such choice is: should the new investment go into improving
the quality of the existing stock of institutions, or, should the stock be
enlarged to accommodate a greater portion of the population. Unfortunately,
the choice bears an equity consequence. It is based on the assumption that
higher income families are the first to take up limited available school
places at each successive level. Therefore, a decision to improve the
quality of the existing stock of secondary schools in Indonesia will of
course disproportionately benefit those groups who are already over-
represented in the schools, whereas each amount of expansion will benefit
successively lower income groups. Given the fact that there are compara-
tively low enrollment rates in secondary education and given the satisfac-
tory returns on investment to secondary schooling as it is, i.e., even
without quality improvements,/l there appear to be compelling reasons to
expand secondary education at the same time as efforts are made to improve
quality, as sketched out in the previous section.
4.20      Planning for Equity and Demand for Schooling.  There are at least
two types of causes for pockets of low enrollment in a country. Some areas
or groups in a country could have relatively low enrollment rates because
they simply lack the necessary physical facilities, while other groups or
areas could be under-enrolled because they underutilize the facilities which
are available to them. Such areas can be identified by comparing enrollments
to numbers of student places available, based on physical inventory.
Planning the distribution of new resources to promote greater equity must
take account of this possibility of underutilization. Neither equity nor
efficiency is served by issuing resources by fiat to areas or groups which
have insufficient demand to be able to make full use of them.
4.21      Planning School Sizes and Locations for Equity.  Inequality of
secondary education in Indonesia is in large part geographic inequality due
to a very marked urban bias in school locations. The creation of literally
thousands of new secondary schools in the coming ten years will present a
prime opportunity to reduce the distance-to-school factor in rural areas./2
These new SMP and SMA schools can be carefully targetted for those rural
subdistricts (kecematan) which presently lack any SMP or SMA.  Every effort
should be given to maximizing rural coverage of the new school map by
XI See paras. 3.55-3.56.
/2 For more detailed discussion, see W.T.S. Gould. "Indonesia: Sume Spatial
Issues in Secondary Education"



- 48 -
keeping school size down to the minimum necessary for efficient use of
facilities. This minimum size would be about three parallel streams in
SMA and two in SMP. The smaller the size of the schools, the more schools
can be built in more places, and the lower will be the distance barrier for
more potential students.
4.22      For this reason, specialized facilities which are seldom used in
the weekly timetable should be avoided as these will require large numbers
of classes and therefore large size schools to generate satisfactory use
rates. There is a direct tradeoff between equity and specialization of
facilities.
4.23      Reducing Quality Differences Between Districts and Schools.
Improving equality in education does not stop with making access to school
places more equal. Equalization, as discussed in Chapter 3, ought to
include access to good quality schools. This requires equalization of those
resources - especially qualified and experienced teachers and instructional
materials - which contribute to good schools. The reduction of quality
differences between schools will also require frequent monitoring of the
performance of all schools on standardized measures, especially external
examinations, and giving the weakest schools guidance based on an analysis
of the exam results, as discussed in paras. 4.09-4.15. Naturally, not all
districts or schools will respond efficiently to this guidance information,
but it is precisely the weakest districts and schools which stand to benefit
the most from this information./1
4.24      School Fees and Equity.  Under present conditions of budgetary
constraint the Government needs to raise further revenues from off-budget
sources, such as school fees. Under conditions where (so far) only a small
percentage of the age group benefits from public schooling, and these tend
to be disproportionately from high income families,/2 the raising of school
fees would conversely reduce public subsidies to those who least need them.
Means-tested scholarships should be made available for the poor. Thus, the
raising of school fees need not reduce equity in education. It might
conceivably even promote equity if the operating funds saved from the
reductions in public subsidies could be ploughed into capital expansion, or
as increased operating subsidies to schools in low income and especially rural
areas.
4.25      Opening Recruitment Channels to High Ouality Public Schools.
Given that the number of "action sector," schools producing graduates
suitable for recruitment into the better universities is so small (para.
3.05), it is very important that access to such schools is as wide open as
/1  For a case in point, see R.C.A. Somerset, "Examination Reformi  The
Kenya Case," Chapter 8.
/2 See Table 3.5.



- 49 -
possible until the "action sector" is enlarged several times over. Under
present arrangements, SD and SMP graduates are supposed to take a locally
set examination for entrance to whatever public SMP or SMA places may be
available locally. In rural areas these spaces will be both few in number
and probably of low quality. The channeling of talented rural youth into
such educational "cul-de-sacs" is not only inequitable, it is also wasteful
of scarce human resources. Therefore, until such time as there are public
schools of reasonable quality in small towns, it would be socially and
economically advantageous to allow open registration to all public schools.
In order to avoid a situation where rural candidates are rushing from one
locally set exam center to another, it would be more efficient to enlarge
the examination areas so that a common exam serves at least a province or a
group of provinces. Candidates could Lhen be allowed to indicate two or
three public school preferences to guide their placement, if they succeed on
the exam.
Expanding Capacity
4.26      Given the Government's budget constraints innovative ways must be
found for expanding capacity at lowest budgetary cost. The following are
some approaches to capacity expansion under budget constraints-
4.27      How Much to Expand?  The economic reason to invest in secondary
education is that it brings a rate of return higher than the opportunity cost
of capital./l The extent of that investment should be guided pragmatically by
frequent reading of demand and supply signals in situations where subsidies
are kept to a minimum. For example as long as demand by applicants for places
in fee-charging private schools surpasses capacity, and as long as the
incidence of school leaver unemployment is a sharply declining function of age
(para. 3.56 tf)) and therefore remains a phenomenon associated with transi-
tion into the work force, investment in general secondary education should
increase.
4.28      Reasons for Public Investment in Capacity Expansion.  Given the
rapid growth of the unplanned, private secondary school sector, public
investment should focus primarily on the two goals of maintaining quality and
equity in secondary education. These goals have been discussed above in
detail. Maintaining equity will require a public investment, carefully
targetted, in new school construction, largely in rural areas. This could be
in both public and private schools.
4.29      Public Investment in "Private" Community Schools.  Perhaps the most
crucial government policy in secondary education in the coming years will
relate to its support to what are called private schools. Since the Govern-
ment's revenue base will not allow the full financing of rapid secondary
/1 See paras. 3.55-3.56.



- 50 -
(Table 3.14). According to informed observers, the actual expenditures will
be lower, in part because some of these funds have been blocked and in part
rural areas. By making matching capital grants to local community groups at
the kecematan level to establish new secondary schools especially in rural
areas, secondary school capacity can be expanded at lower capital and
recurrent cost to the Government. Various other forms of financial support
will also be needed to see if the Government can stimulate local or private
groups to shoulder an even greater portion of the cost of accommodating and
teaching the rapidly growing student population. This could include tax
relief to corporations or individuals who contribute to schools as proposed by
the Soemitro commission report./l
4.30      Maximizing Output from Existing Capacity.  The options in this
direction are few. As already noted, there is extensive double shifting of
both schools and teachers. Neither can we look for much improvement in
"internal efficiency:" grade repetition is already less than 2% in both SMA
and SMP.12 Where there is some room for increasing output capacity is in the
redeployment of facilities among different types of secondary schools. In
particular, the demand for additional new primary school teachers has recently
peaked with the achievement of near-universal primary school entry. Enroll-
ments in primary grade one are tapering off to a "steady state" level close to
the size of the seven year old cohort./3 Accordingly, some of the public and
private SPG schools for training primary teachers could be converted for use
as S-MAs to meet the mushrooming demand at that level.
Financing the Development of General Secondary Education
4.31      The previous discussion on expanding the capacity of secondary
education has already necessarily touched on some specific financing policy
issues. However, some broader principles of resource mobilization remain to
be discussed.
4.32      An Appropriate Level of Public Effort.  It is never easy to
determine what is an appropriate level of public financing of education in a
given country. It is worth recalling from para. 3.37 and Table 3.8 that
families pay five times more than the Government for the direct and indirect
costs of SMP and ten times more for SMA. These include family payments for
various fees, transportation, boarding, equipment, and other "incidentals".
Comparisons with other countries can provide a useful guide for making
judgments on levels of effort. Government budget allocations to education in
developing countries as a percentage of total budget are usually in the 15 to
20% range, and sometimes as high as 25 to 30%. However in Indonesia the
allocation to education has remained at about 12% for the past few years
/1 Laporan Komisi Pembaharuan Pendidikan Nasional, Jakarta, 1980.
/2 School Statistics for SMP and SMA, 1980/81, BP3K.
/3  Anita Nazareth, "Projections of Enrollments and Resource Requirements
for Primary and Secondary Education in Indonesia".



- 51 -
because of delays in expenditure due to insufficient school construction
capacity in the outer islands.
4.33      Similarly, public expenditures on education amounted to 3.45% of GNP
in a "typical" East Asia and Pacific Region country in the late 1970s, but in
Indonesia it is around 2% (Table 3.16). Notwithstanding the current fall in
government revenues, it is difficult not to reach the judgement that the
percentage of total government budget devoted to the education sector should
be increased significantly over the next decade, to bring Indonesia in line
with the comparator countries in its region for the first time. This increase
should be approached in phases and should not displace private contributions
to education. Rather, government funds should be used as grants-in-aid or
loans which will stimulate further private contributions. Specific proposals
for increasing budgetary outlays to secondary education are described in
Chapter 5.
4.34      Cost Recovery.  It is clear from the rapid growth of private
secondary schooling that there is a strong "willingness to pay" for schooling.
This willingness is also likely to be strong among many or most of the
families who send students to public secondary schools. There is so far no
indication that public schools have a higher proportion of students from
low-income families than do private schools, although this needs to be
confirmed. Since 90% of the direct cost of public secondary schooling is paid
by the Government,/l there would appear to be some scope for greater recovery
of these direct costs from the direct beneficiaries through raising public
school fees. The SPP school fees scale as a whole should be raised at least
to offset inflation and possibly higher, in order to generate additional funds
either to expand or improve schooling. Means-tested fee exemptions could be
provided to guarantee access to more low income students. At the present time
these are provided to only 2% of secondary and university students./2 Public
schools should be given an incentive to increase their own fee level within
the official fee scale. This could be done by allowing the schools to keep a
significant portion of their SPP fee income, rather than simply sending it all
to the central government. This could be conditional on their presenting a
budget for its use, followed by an audit. The assumption is that the school
management is more knowledgeable than are distant officials about the
particular expenditure needs of the school from year to year./3 To summarize
this point: even though parents already pay a great deal for indirect costs,
and, furthermore, even though Government budgetary outlays are comparatively
low and should increase, given the rising strength of demand and recent
declines in fee levels in real terms, there is some scope for raising parent
fees again in future.
/1 c.f., Meesook, op. cit. Table 1. Note that "direct cost" does not refer
to the indirect costs already borne by parents shown in Table 3.8.
Instead, "direct costs" are those which actually appear on school budgets,
of public schools in this case.
/2 Meesook, op. cit. page 18.
/3 Heyneman, "Indonesian Secondary Schools: Issues of Quality and Finance".



- 52 -
4.35      A Mixed Public-Private System.  By increasing the parental contri-
bution to the direct, budgeted costs of public schooling, and increasing
public subsidies to private schools through grants-in-aid, the artificially
sharp distinction between public and so-called private schools would be broken
down deliberately./l The thrust behind such a mixed public and private school
policy would be primarily to enlarge the overall number of productive schools
by strengthening the many "private" schools with an infusion of school
resources to the point where they move out of the "facade" and into the
"action" sector. To make these schools more effective will, it is argued,
cost less in total government expenditures over time than expanding the 90%
subsidized public school sector.
4.36      For many so-called private schools, being private primarily means
being poor and under-resourced as a school, and charging students full-cost
fees for watered-down education. It also means being heavily enrolled by
those students who were unable to get a place in a public school, because
there are and will continue to be too few places ir public schools to accom-
modate them. Being a public school, on the other hand, means that some basic
resources to run a school are usually provided: qualified teachers, a science
laboratory, some books and paper, perhaps a very small library, and a playing
field, etc. And yet these students have to pay only about 1OZ of these direct
costs in the public schools. This stark contrast makes little sense other
than in terms of an inadequate supply of places in schools of reasonable
quality. The majority of private schools have to cater for excess demand.
However, with a few notable exceptions they provide an inferior education, at
a higher cost to the user. The policy response should be to close the gap
both in terms of quality and in private cost by increasing private expendi-
tures in the public schools and using the "savings" to the Government's bud-
get to strengthen the weak, so-called private schools, and provide scholar-
ships for the needy. These schools should be labelled more precisely
as community schools. Local leaders at the kecematan level should be given a
role in organizing local support for such schools.
5. CONCLUSION: A PROGRAM' OF ACTIONS AND ITS FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS
5.01      The previous chapters identify the major problems in secondary edu-
cation, and then offer some principles and investment approaches or options.
This chapter will recommend a program of specific actions for dealing with the
problems, reflecting the principles just reviewed. It concludes with a review
of the costs of this Action Program in relation to a projection of government
education expenditures without the action program, for the next two five-year
plans: PRepelita IV (1984/85-1988/89) and Repelita V (1989/90-1993/94).
/1 The exception would be those relatively few private schools which have
the means and the will to be truly independent.



- 53 -
Three Specific Action Programs
5.02      Quality Action Program
(a) Expand the in-service, on-service science and mathematics teacher
training program to include English language, and give particular
emphasis to rural areas. Build rural teachers centers to
strengthen the program (paras. 3.10, 4.03.)
(b) Provide SMPs and SMAs which have at least two parallel streams
with science laboratories and libraries and related equipment,
with particular emphasis on private schools (paras. 3.10, 3.15,
4.02, 4.16-4.17).
(c) Develop a system of national school leaving examinations which ranks
candidates for selection to further education, monitors school
quality, and provides schools and supervisors with feedback of
"incentive" and "guidance" information.  Create a National Examina-
tions Center to lead this institution building process, by
strengthening the Ministry of Education Center for Examinations.
Arrange external examinations at the end of each cycle as follows:
(i) SD: set by the province (kanwil); conducted, marked analyzed
ind reported by the kabupaten education authorities.
(ii)  SHP:  set centrally by the Center in close cooperation with
the Directorate of General Secondary Education; conducted,
marked, analyzed, and reported by the provinces.
Ciii)  SMA:  set, marked, analyzed and reported centrally by the
National Examinations Center (paras. 3.20-24, 4.09-4.15.)
(d) Reduce SMP/SMA teacher double shifting by increasing teacher
supply for both private and public schools, (paras. 3.11-3.13).
(e) Conduct a study to determine optimal wage scale for public school
teachers, using comparisons with private sector with objective
of reducing incentive to "multi-job," and eliminating "piecework"
as basis for salary supplementation (paras 3.13-3.14, 4.04-4.n5.)
5.03      Equity Action Program
(a) Allocate available capital funds for SM? and SMA expansion
initially to those provinces which are both most severely under-
represented in enrollment and most underprovided with classroon
facilities relative to demand (enrollment), up to the point where
they catch up to the next-most underrepresented provinces; follow
the same "bump-up" procedure with the two nost underrepresented
provinces jointly; and so forth until the budget allocation is
fully committed. Within each of these provinces apply the



- 54 -
bump-up principle to kabupatens; and with each kabupaten chosen
accordingly, apply the same principle to kecematans, etc. The use
of this allocation procedure could by 1989/90 reduce the existing
Gini coefficients for SMP and SMA dramatically from 0.146 and
0.215 to 0.009 and 0.023 respectively./1
(b) Extend opportunities for qualified candidates to enter high
quality SMPs and SMAs by enlarging the geographic areas in which
common examinations are conducted (para. 4.25).
(c)  Enlarge the opportunities for qualified candidates to enter PP1
universities by staging the PP1 examination at many locations,
not just at the PPI universities themselves (para. 3.34, 3.39).
(d) Extend the coverage of the school map over more rural areas, by
adopting the minimum economic size school as the norm for school
size. Retain double shift use of facilities in urban areas in
order to minimize new urban school construction until the rural
school map has been filled in, thereby offsetting the extra cost.
5.04      Resource Mobilization Program
(a) Maintain level of SPP fee income in real terms by adjusting
fee schedule annually for inflation (para. 3.48, 3.51).
(b) Allow schools to retain portion of SPP income to use for own
budgeted purposes, as incentive to schools to raise their
own fees (para. 3.51, 4.34).
Cc) Establish means-tested nil-fee system for very low income
family students who qualify for admission to public SNP or
SMA so that they are exempted from the SPP fees (para. 4.34).
(d) Channel maximum portion of capital budget for general secondary
education through grants-in-aid to "private", i.e., community
schools in targeted kabupaten and kecematan (paras. 4.35-4.36).
The communities would be required to raise 15% of capital costs
which the Government would "match" with the remaining 85%.
(e) Reallocate excess SPG facilities to use as SMAs as demand for new
primary teachers falls rapidly early in Repelita IV, and remains
low through Repelita V (para. 4.30).
(f) Prepare physical facilities inventory province by province as
basis for providing grants for adding new facilities at existing,
incomplete public and private S'lPs and SMAs (para. 4.29).
/1 Such a program is presented in detail in Criel, op. cit. It is
dnteresting that this "bump-up" procedure for allocating new places
toes not involve a significant extra cost. This is because most of
rhe under-represented areas are in Java where building costs are
elatively low.



- 55 -
5.05      Underlying these action programs is an assumption that secondary
general education will continue to grow. Tables 8 and 9 of the Appendix
present two scenarios for enrollment growth and rcelated facility and teacher
requirements. The "trend scenario" extrapolates recent enrollment trends to
1994/95, while the "target scenario" uses enrollment rate tar,ets in 1994/95
of 55% in SM? and 20% in SMA. According to the more realistic "trend
scenario," enrollments in public and private SMAs will expand from 1.3 mil-
lion students, or 14% of 16-18 year olds, in 1981/82 to about 3.6 million or
32% at the end of Repelita IV, 1988/89. Total public and private SMP
enrollments will expand from 3.7 million students, or 37% of the 13-15 age
group in 1981/82, to about 7.3 million students or 58% of the age group at
the end of Repelita IV in 1988/89. It will be necessary to accommodate this
enrollment growth in Repelita IV by constructing about 54,000 SMP classrooms
plus related laboratories, libraries, staffrooms, etc., and 47,000 SMA
classrooms plus related laboratories, libraries, staffrooms, etc. On an
average annual basis, this means constructing about 20,000 new classrooms
plus about 5,000 related specialized rooms or the equivalent of about 2,000
new schools per year. Continued extensive use of double shifting would
reduce these quantities.
Budgetary Implications of the Action Program
5.06      How much would the implementation of the proposed Action Program
cost the Government? The projected costs of the various quality-improving and
equity-enhancing programs identified in paras. 5.02 to 5.04 are summarized in
Table 5.1. The table shows these costs for 1984/85 and 1993/94, the first
and tenth years respectively of Repelita IV and V. In addition, the
Government's annual education sector budget, by levels of education, has
been projected forward through 1993/94, the last year of Repelita V. This
proje:tion is based on a straight-line extrapolation of the Government's own
enrollment forecasts for Repelita IV. The complete projection of enroll-
ments, budget and Action Program costs is shown in the Appendix, Table 10.
Let us first turn to the costs of the Action Program before looking at their
impact on the projected government budget as the base.



- 56 -
Table 5.1: BREAKDOWN OF SECONDARY EDUCATION ACTION PROGRAM
COSTS IN 1984/85 AND 1993/94
(Rps. billion)
I.  Recurrent Budget Expenditure               1984/85             1993/94
Increase Teacher Salaries                      29                  94
Reduce Double Shifting                          0                  14
Equipment Replenishment                        35                  74
(Laboratory and Library)
Increase Classroom Materials                   57                 116
Examination Reform                              3                   6
Nil-Fee Scheme                                  6                  12
Subtotal                                130                 316
Cost Recovery
Raise SPP schedule                           -3                  -6
Allow schools to raise SPP fees              13                -22
Subtotal                                -16                 -28
Net Cost                                    114                 286 /a
II. Capital Budget Expenditures
Teacher Improvements                            9                   2
Private School Facilities                      51                  43
(Laboratories; Libraries)
Private School Equipment                       38                  36
Examination Development                         I                   0
Subtotal                                 99                  81
Cost Recovery:
Converting Excess SPGs to SMAs                1                 -4
Matching funds for Community Schools         94               -102
Subtotal                                 95                -106
Net Cost (Savings)                              3 /a            - 25
/a Columns do not sum exactly due to rounding



- 57 -
5.07      The components of the secondary education Action Program which bring
the heaviest additional recurrent budget outlays are an increased level of
provision of classroom materials, a 5% p.a. real increase in teachers
salaries, and the replacement of science 'aboratory and library equipment
every seven years. The added recurrent costs of these and other actions are
slightly offset by an effort to recover some costs by an increase in school
SPP fees, which in turn is partly offset by a nil-fee scheme for students from
poor families. On the other hand, the capital expenditure side of the Action
Program will actually help introduce some savings to the government budget
rather than add to the budgetary burden. This budget savings is due in part
to slower enrollment expansion forecast in the outer years. But in addition
the program would (a) ircroduce local community fund-raising to partially
match future government school building grants, and (b) convert future excess
SPGs (primary teacher training high schools) to SMAs to reduce new school
building and increase capacity utilization. The budget savings from these
actions would more than offset the additional expenditure brought on by the
other proposed actions.
5.08      The added cost of this Action Program to improve secondary school
quality and equity appears manageable, (see Appendix, Table 11 with an
attached note). The Government's combined capital and recurrent budget for
secondary education is estimated at Rp 825 billion in 1983/84. It would grow
after ten years to: Rp 1,490 billion without the Action Program (6.1% p.a.),
or to Rp 1,751 with the entire Action Program (7.8% p.a.). By 1993/94 the
additional cost of the full action program would be Rp 261 billion, requiring
total secondary education expenditures of Rp 1,751; the latter would be 18%
more than the base budget of Rp 1,490 billion. The cost recovery features of
the Action Program, shown in Table 5.1, explain why the Action Program adds
only modestly to the projected growth of secondary education costs. However,
if these cost recovery features were to be deleted from the Action Program,
its cost on the government budget would rise from Rp 261 to 397 billion,
which would represent 27% instead of 18% of the base budget. By the same
token, the ten-year annual growth rate of the budget plus the partial Action
Program would be not 7.8%, but 8.6% p.a., which is a 50% increase over the
6.1% p.a underlying growth rate in the base budget.



- 58 -
BIBLIOCRAPHY
Items where only the author and title are given are internal Bank
documents and are not available outside the Bank. Items marked with an
asterisk are to be published in the World Bank Staff Working Papers series
and will be available to the public.
I.    External Productivity
a.  David Clark, "Labor Market Outcc.mes for New Senior Secondary
School Graduates in Indoaesia." World Bank Staff Working Paper,
No. 615, 1983.
b. G. Psacharopoulos, "Higher Education in Developing Countries: A
Cost-Benefit Analysis." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 440,
1980.
II.   Ouality/Efficiency
*a. H.C.A. Somerset, "Secondary Education, Selection Examinations
and University Recruitment in Indonesia: Some 1Key Issues."
*b. _, "The Potential Contribution of Examinations to School
Quality Improvement."
*c.  S. Heyneman, "Indonesian Secondary Schools:  Issues of nuality
and Finance."
d. C.S. Mangindaan, R.K. Sembiring, I. Livingstone, "National
Assessment of the Quality of Indonesian Education: Survey of
Achievement in Grade 9." Ministry of Education and Culture,
Jakarta, 1978.
e. Suprapto, R.K. Sembiring, I. Livingstone, "National Assessment
of the Quality of Indonesian Education: Survey of Achievement
in Grade 12." Ministry of Education and Culture, Jakarta, 1981.
III. Finance
a. John Smyth, "Central Government Education Expenditure, 1980/81 -
1990/91."
*b. Oey Astra Meesook, "Financing and Equity in the Social Sectors in
Indonesia."
c. Claude Tibi, "A Summary of the Study on (Secondary School) Costs
In Indonesia." IIEP, Paris 1982, Working Document.
d.  Boediono, "A Study on Costs of Education." IIEP, Paris, 1982,
Working Document.



-59-
*e. Ward Heneveld, "The Development and Routine Budgets in Indonesia's
Department of Education and Culture: Do They Complement Each
Other."
f. Douglas Lamb and Ruth Daroesman, "Financing Education; Central-
Local Financial Relations Review for the Government of Indonesia,
Sectoral Study No. 6."
g. M. Zymelman, "Patterns of Educational Expenditures." World Bank
Staff Working Paper No. 246, 1976.
h.  C.M. Widodo, A Study of Educattonal Costs in Primary and Secondary
Schools, Proyek Pembiayaan Pendidikan, BP3K, Department of Fduca-
tion and Culture, Jakarta 1978.
I. Department of Education and Culture, miscellaneous documents on
budget and finance.
IV.   FquIty
*a. W.T.S. Gould, "Indonesia: Some Spatial Issues tn Secondary
Education."
*b. Geert Criel, "Distribution of Secondary School Enrollments In
Indonesia".
*c.  R.C.A. Somerset, "Patterns of University Recruitment:  Regional
Vartatior.- tn the Flow of Secondary School Leavers to the PPI
Universities."
d. Waskito Tjiptosasmito and W.K. Cummings, "Status and Deployment
at Teachers in Indonesia", 1981.
e. World Bank "Indonesta: Financial Resources and Human Development
in the Eighties" No. 3795-InD, May 5, 1982.
V.    General
a. Department of Education and Culture, "Draft Report of the
Preinvestment Study on the Improvement of General Secondary
Eduication", 1982.
b.           _, Report of the Nattonal Comnission r"Soemitro
Commission Report), (Laporan Komist Pembaharuan Pendidikan
Nasional), Jakarta 1980.
c.              . Education in Indonesia, 1900-1974 (in hahasa
Indonesia) Jakarta, 1976.
*d.  knita Nazareth,  "Projections of Enrollment and Resource
Requirements for Primary and Secondary Education In Indonesia."
e.  World Bank, "Indonesta:  Education Sector Survey Report"
No. 443a-IND, February 5, 1975.



Appendix
Table I
I NDONRSI1A
SECONDARY EDUCATION
Admission Cutoff Marks for Courses at PPI
Universities and Other Recruitment Data
No. of    Minimum cutoff mark        No. of places & applicants         % places to first-choice applicants
Courses    Median       Range     Places (P)  Applicants (A)   A:P               Median            Range
(a)  Science Courses
Civil engineering          I         lS     95-112        930            7,737        8.3               792          55- 992
Medicine                   7         104     91-108        962            7,399        7.7               822          65 - 962
Other engineering         14         102     86-116      1,190            12,034       8.7               632          16 - In0.
Architecture               4         100     91-104        260            3,n93       11.9               s82          2R - 712
Chem. engineering          4          99     80-104        278             1,745       6.3               611          11 - 74t
Mech. engineering          5         9'      76-104        360            2,824        7.R               44%          20 - 612
Physics                    5         97      77-99         217             1,314       6.1               212          14 - 36S
Mathenatics                7          97     80-101        366            2,985        8.1               372           7 - 9D2
Agriculture                5         96      A5-101        89S           10,331       11.5              4PX           28 - 642
PharmAcy                   5          94     79-101        260            3,035       11.7               46t          16- s50
Chemistry                  6          '4     73-102        240             1,679       7.0               31%          15- 70
Dentistry                  5          90     76- 93        485            3,120        6.4               412          22 - 47X
(b)  Social Science and Language Courses
Phychology                 2         104       104         210            5,814       27.7               84S          76- 92S
Public aduin. 6
Int. relations          2         104    101-107         140            3,268       23.3              73%          56 - 412
English                    5         100     80-106        210            2,990       14.2               8n2          32- -s5
Economics                  7          97     89-108      1,639           19,836       12.1               84%          67 - 92%
French/German              5         94      89-101        l4s             1,405       9.7               402          26 - sn2
Sociology/
anthropology             7         93      76-97         296            4,156       14.0               317          15- 53%
Soc. Science (IPS)         5          92     83-1nO        820            11,670      14.2               48%          38 - 632
Law                        7          90     81-98       1,727            18,189      10.5               SI1          44 - 612
Arabic                     4          05     s8-8s         128               566       4.4               252          22- 43%
tndonesian                 6         84      71-94         250            1,826        7.3              23%           8 - 432
History                    5         83      72-89         198             1,325       6.7               15%           6 - 225
Source:  H.C.A. SoLerset, "Secondary Education Selection Examinations and University Recruitment in Indonesia:  Some 2ey
I ssues".                                                                                                                      , X



- 61 -
Appendix
Table 2
INDONESIA
SECONDARY EDUCATION
Distribution of School Quality
Inputs by Province
Proportion of SMA Schools With:
More than 50%
of the library
No laboratory   No library   More than 450   books actually
Province           facilities      facility   books available    textbooks
Istimawa Aceh            0              0             100.0              0
Sumatra Utara           31.8           11.4            23.1             45.0
Sumatra Barat            0              0             100.0              0
Jambi                    0              0             100.0              0
Sumatra Selatan          0              0               0  /a          100.0
Lampung                 56.4            0              31.5             68.5
Dki Jakarta             12.1           10.5            69.0             11.4
Jawa Barat              31.9            0              87.7             27.0
Istimewa Yogya          26.2            0             100.0              0
Jawa Tengah              6.4            0             100.0             14.8
Java Timur              12.1           44.2            33.0             18.0
Sulawesi Utra           32.1           12.2            40.1             20.9
Sulawesi Tengah         48.3           50.0            25.0              0
Sulawesi Selatan         0             81.6            18.4              0
Kalimantan Tenya        18.6           81.4             0                0
Kalimantan Timur         0              0               0  /b            0
Bali                    58.9            0             100.0              0
Maluku                  53.8            0               0  /b          100.0
/a  No school library had access to more than 250 books.
7Th  No school library had access to more than 50 books.
Source: National Assessment of Indonesian Education data; breakdown created
at request of the World Bank Mission, March 1982.



- 62 -
Appendix
Table 3
INDONESIA
SECONDARY EDUCATION
Average Number of Students Per "Good" Classroom
and Corresponding Representation Indices
1980/81, SHP and SMA
SMP                    SMA
Province            Average        RI       Average        RI
Jakarta                 56         1.262         61        1.046
Jawa Barat              85         0.843         65        0.982
Jawa Tengah             62         1.156         55        1.159
Yogyakarta               60        1.199         58        1.101
Jawa Timur               86        0.828         68        0.942
Aceh                    73         0.977         61        1.053
Sumatra Utara           67         1.061         59        1.091
Sumatra Barat           76         0.937         72        0.887
Riau                     61        1.175         64        1.008
Jambi                   66         1.080         47        1.374
Sumatra Sela            68         1.047         67        0.952
Bengkulu                74         0.958         86        0.742
Lampung                 74         0.969         55        1.159
Kali. Barat             97         0.736         87        0.734
Kali. Tengah             65        1.099         85        0.756
'Cali. Selatan           94        0.758         68        0.938
Kali. Timur             66         1.082         41        1.548
Sulawesi Utara          67         1.063         66        0.966
Sulawesi Tengah         72         0.996         56        1.138
Sulawesi Selatar.       78         0.910         93        0.689
Sulawesi Tengg          87         0.824        105        0.612
Maluku                  69         1.038         88        0.732
Bali                    76         0.935         67        0.957
Nusa Tengg B            86         0.824         83        0.777
Nusa Tengg T            62         1.149         64        1.002
Irian Jaya              70         1.024         60        1.067
Total              71         1.000         64        1.000
Source:  G. Criel, op. cit.



INnONFSIA
.SECnNnARY FnflCATInN
Student/Teacher Ratios and Corresponding Representation Indices
IRn/ARI, SHP and SMA
SMP                                                                SMA
Full-time       Part-time                                          Vull-tlte        "art-time
lleadmasters       teachers         teachers        Total /a        fleadmasters       teachers        teachers         Total /a
Province           Average   Rl   Average   RI   AveraAe   RI   Average   RT    Average   RT   AveraRe   RT   Average   RT   Average   RT
Jakarta                3q9   0.R13       37   n.q7A       4q   n.94n       IR  n0q54       511   n.764       41  n0.01        1S   n.RIA      17   n,qnq
Jawa Barat             3R9   0.R15       46   0.7Q2       44   l,n59       IQ   n,qns      382    .n2l       in  n0.. Irv    23   1.78         Is   .A77
Jawa Tengah            327   n.992       16   1.nI7       44   I.n4R      17   l.nlR       404   0.967       4n   1.n27      27   1.0n9       14   I.n01
Yogyakarta             317   I.n24       27   1.321       37   1.24h       11   1.2R5      341   1.14S       in   1.366       In   I.49n      1n   1.42?
Jawa Timur             323   1.nn5       48   0,7AR    35   1.342          17   1,024      354   1.0l3       47   n.A74       94   I.I9q      14   3n074
Aceh                   2R2   1.1sn       2%   1.231       46   1.n05       16   I.1n7      327   1.193       42   n.9qQ       7R   l.n4l      IS   1.nns
Sumatra Utara          333   0.974       32   1.141      In5   0.445      2n   n.853       421   n.922       .n   1.ll8      9s   n.517       17   n.8h4
Sumatra 8arat          421   0.771       3n   1.224    116   n.4n0        20   0.R67       552   0.7n7       36   1.146       0n  n.578       38   n.8,n
Riau                   302   1.076       34   1.057       68   n.681       19   n.qI1      175   I.n42       39   1.n4l      lit  n.7A        17   n.8RR
Jambi                  301   1.076       31   1.156       63   n.716      IR   r.977       111   1.174       3n   1.356      4Q   n.5R7       16  n0.  n
Sumatra Sela           285   1.117       37   0.9R4       17   1.261       17   I.007      345   1.134       45   n.909      ?n   1.n14       1%  n0Q71
Bengkulu               206   1.580       3S   I.042       37   1.241       15   1.102      256   1.52q       44  n0ql4       27   l.n02       14   I.n41
Lampung                275   1.178       17   0.969       4n   1.164       16   1.068      139   1.13       3A   1.nA2       32   n.Q6       IS   n. nnl
Kali. Barat            241   1.347       46   0.785       4n   1.192      1   O.Q72       3n4   1.289       S4   n.796       3n   n,q77      I6   n.ql
Kali. Tengah           195   1.661       28   1.3n2       94  n0.8n        IS   1.149      115   1.214       ?7   1.512       4n   n.7?1      14   1.n07
Kali. Selatan          281    1.151      34   I.n60       4n   1.16A       16   .I1ns      34n   1.144       44  n0q.7        3n  n0.QR       16   A.451
Kali. Tinur            211   1.524       45   n.812       3n   1.567       IS   1.16      247   1.582       17   I.n01       21   1.277      12   1.216
Sulawesi I)tara        289   1.122       2R   1.311       68   A.A6n       117   I.n0?     14    1.141       4n   1.n28       29  n0.0l       IS   1.l0i
Sulawesi Tengah        227   1.43n       36   I1.l        48   n.q76      17   1.nI6       294   1.111       3q   1.n4n      33  n0.4n        IS   n,n"s
Sulawesi Selatan       417   n.77Q       12   1.125      1n0   n.452      21   n.R14       486   n.8n4       46  n0.8q       4n   n.776       It)  A.709
Sulawesi Tengg         1?1   I.nn5        n   1.2n?    194   A.3n2        21   0.8IR       577   n.677       41  n0.f2       66  n0.41A       ')   n.66n
Maluku                 251   1.287       22   1.6h5       n3   n.4q9      1   1.141       41Q  n0.qn        16   1.1?2    62   n.6q8         17  n0.83
Bali                   126   n.997       11   1.176       26   1.776       11   1.lS6      144  n0q97        42  n0.6?       '3   1.771       11   1.1nn
Nusa Tengg 1           179   0.857       41  n0R.1        44   ln.04       Iq  n0. Q6      3s   1.n03        64   n.632       i5   I . I      IA  n0nIQ
Nusa Tengg T           2n6   1.575       30   1.212       s0   n.9l6       IS    .i;q      116   1.217       17   1n.08       3n  n0q.4       IS   1.n21
Irlan Jaya             22n   1.477       2A   1.299       S    n. I.h 16   1.111           292   1.14n       92   n.7A8       IQ   l.S2h      1'  I1?.n
Total             325   I.nnn       36   1.nnn      47   1.nnn       17   1.nnn       3Q1   I.nnn      41   l.nnn       ?4   3.nnn       is   1.nnn
Ia  Includes also VLce-Headmasters and Alternate Teachers.                                                                                                       4
-m
Source:  C. Criel, op. cit.                                                                                                                                     m j
P.



- 64 -
Appendix
Table S
INDONESIA
SECONDARY EDUCATION
Rank Ordered Representation Indices for Provinces
Divided Into Urban and Rural Portions. 1981/82
SMP                                          SMA
Province                                     Province
portion                    RI                portion                     RI
Ja Bar Rural             0.632               Jambi Rural                0.325
Jambi Rural              0.633               Lampung Rural              0.357
Kal Sel Rural            0.680               Sum Sel Rural              0.442
Sum Sel Rural            0.681                4aluku Rural              0.445
Kal Bar Rural            0.694               Kal Bar Rural              0.460
Lampung Rural            0.748               Kal Tgah Pural             0.470
Ja Tim Rural             0.761               Ja Bar Rural               0.470
Ja Ten Rural             0.790               Xal Sel Rural              0.506
Bengkulu Rural           0.805               Kal Tim Rural              0.522
Maluku Rural             0.809               Ja Tim Rural               0.562
Irian Ja Rural           0.814               Ja Ten Rural               0.591
Aceh Rural               0.845               Bengkulu Rural             0.616
Nustenba Rural           0.894               Irian Ja Rural             0.643
Ral Tgah Rural           0.923               Sum Bar Rural              0.723
Sul Tgah Rural           0.928               Sul Tgah Rural             0.750
Rlau Rural               0.939               Sun Utar Rural             0.765
Nustenti Rural           0.961               Riau Rural                 0.787
Sustenti Rural            0.846
Aceh Rural                0.858
Sul Sel Rural             0.96'
Total                 1.000                  Total                   1.000
Kal Tim Rural            1.028               Nustenba Pural             1.024
Sul Sel Rural            1.067               Sul Uta Rural              1.092
Sult'ara Rural           1.123               Sult'ara Rural             1.209
Sum Bar Rural            1.144               Yogya Rural                1.327
Sum Utar Pural           1.159               Kal Tim Urban              1.434
Sul Uta Rural            1.278               Janbi Urban                1.541
Bali Rural               1.453               Bali Rural                 1.593
Kal Tim Urban            1.568               Kal Sel Urban              2.00r
Kal Sel Urban            1.585               Jakarta Urban              2.154
Yogya Rural              1.662               Sum Sel Urban              2.720
Sul Sel Urban            1.694               Kal Bar Urban              2.817
Jakarta Urban            1.730               Ja Ten Urban               2.818
Jaubi Urban              1.750               Maluku Urban               2.877
Ja Bar Urban             1.821               Ja Bar Urban               2.911
La?Iung Urban            1.871               Ja Tim Urban               2.918
Kal Bar Urban            1.894               Sul Sel Urban              2.934
Sum Bar Urban            1.914               Lampung Urban              2.965
Maluku Urban             1.949               ICal Tgah Urban            3.453
Sul Uta Urban            1.995               Sum Utar urban             3.545
Ja Ten Urban             2.025               SuUm Ur Urban              3.553
Sum Utar Urban           2.100               Sul Ura Urban              4.137
Sul Sel Urban            2.135               Riau Urban                 4.139
la Tim Urban             2.165               Bengkulu Uirban            4.397
Kal Tgah L'rban          2.322              'Yogya Urban                5.077
Bengkulu Urban           2.542               Aceh Urban                 7.431
fogya Urban              2.712
Riau Urban               2.718
Aceh Urban               3.339
RI - Percent of national enrollment
percent of national age group
Source: C. Criel, op. cit.



- 65 -
Appendix
Table 6
INDONESIA
SECONDARY EDUCATION
Vocational Enrollment as Percentage of
Secondary School Enrollment, East Asia and Pacific Region
Most
1960     1970       recent
Fiji                                       10%         6%          6X
Hong Kong                                   6%         6           6
Indonesia                                  20         22          21
Kaampuchea                                  7          3
Korea                                      14         16          16
Laos                                        9         14          14
Malaysia                                    5          3           3
Papua New Guinea                           16         19          22
Philippines                                15          6           -
Singapore                                   2          8          13
Taiwan                                     24         15          18
Thailand                                   19         24          13
Vietnam                                     -         -           14
Western Samoa                               -          1           2
Source: World Tables, Table 4.



- 66-
INDONESTA                                                                          Appendix
Table 7
SECONDARY EDUCATION
Comparative Education Indicators
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PRINTOUT -1I      INDOHESIA: COHORT SURVIVAL PROFILE
TREND PROJCTION  NEIHODD 2  RADIA  ADJUSIMENT TO STEADI STATE FOR SD-I EIROLLHENTS
(SDI SlIP-GERERALi SM-GENERALI
DATA     DATA     DAtA     DATA     DATA      DArA      ITA     DATA    PROJ.   PROJ.   FROJ.   PROJ.   PROJ.  ipOJ.   fROJ.   PROJ.   FROJ.   F-PJ.    PO.   PROJ.   FROJ.
1974     1975     1976     1977     1978/79  1979/80  1980/81  1981/02  1982/f3  1983/84  1994/85  19fi/86  198/687  1987/88  1"8/89  1989/90  1990191  1"1/92  1992193  1993194  1994/95
7 iR ODS  3931000  3970000  4010000  4050000  409000  4131000  4173000  4260000  4303000  4285000  4324000  4342000  4349000  4354000  4398000  44U6000  4455000  4470000  4476000  4556000  4628000
SD-1/7 YR     0.88     0.89     1.00      1.07     1.21     1.38     1.25     1.24      1.22     1.20     1.16     1.12     1.09      1.09     1.09     1.09     1.09     1.09     1.09     1.09      1.09
St-I       3446835  3552670  4002377  4331285  4929754  5682323  5221513  5284819  5249660  5142000  5015840  4863040  4740410  4745860  4793820  4835240  4855950  4872300  487840  4966040  5044520
SD-24SD-1     0.89     0.92     0.94     0.91      0.92     0.89     0.93     0.93     0.93      0.93     0.93     0.93     0.93     0.93     0.93      0.93     0,93     0.93     0.93     0.93
SD -2      2829095  3067592  3253994  1747117  3955770  4511656  5076253  494834 0491882  4882184  47820    4664731  4522627  4408581  4413650  4458253  4496773  4513   4532                     4618417
SD-3/S0-2     0,89     0,92     0.96      0.93   0T9        092      092      092      0.92      0,92     0,9      0,92     0.92     0.92     0.92      0.92     0.92    092       0.2      0.92
50-3       2501138  2512291  2822312  3120022  3464353  3608747  4153127  4674669  4460927  4521691  4491609  439495  4291553  4160817  4055895  4060558  4101592  4137031  4154751  4168740  4174336
SD-4/SD-3    084      0.88     0.90     0.89      0.87     0.90     0.90     0.90       .9     0.9 0,90           0.0      090      0090     0.90      0.90     0,90     0.90    0,9       0.90
SD-4       2003492  2099223  2217059  2538736  2770132  3006281  3243646  3719695  4207202  4014835  4069522  4042448  3959546  3862397  3744735  3650305  3654502  3691433  372332  3739276  375186b
SD-5/SD-4     0.84     0.86     0.88     0.88      O.7      0.                  90     0.90     0.90      0.90 0.90         0.90 090         0.90      0.90     0,90     0.90 0..0         0.90
SD-5       1627590  1692093  1811199  1944605  2242429  2404782  2703781  2922037  3347726  3786482  3613351  3662570  3638203  3563591  3476158  3370262  3285275  3289052  3322290  3350995  3365348
SD-6/SD-5    0M84      0.86     0.87    ,Oi8       0.87     0.90     0.89     0.90     0.90      0.90     0.90     0.90     0.90     0.90     0.90      0.90     0,90     0.90     0.90     0.90
S0-6       1299716  1366288  1442683  1583446  1710381  1951933  2153550  2412434  2629833  3012953  3407834  3252016  3296313  3274383  3207232  3128542  3033236  2956747  2960147  2990061  3015896
GRADS        0.91     0.91     0.94     0,92    0.92    0.92        0,92     0.92     0,92      0,92     0.92     0.92    09        0M       0.92      0.92     0,92     0.92     0.92     0.92     0.92
SD6 BRADS  1180055  1242761  1358262  1453213  1569814  1795778  1981266  2219439  2419447  2771117  3135207  2991855  3032608  3012432  2950653  2878259  2790577  2720208  2723335  2750856  2774624
SD TOTAL  13707866 14280157 1555012417265291 19074819 21165724 22551870 23862480 24810230 25360144 25380216 24884300 24448652 24015630 23691490 23503159 23427328 23462597 23570595 23752433 23970383
POP 7-12  20499000 2090800  21326000 21753000 22188000 22632000 235000 23812000 24446000 2490500 25280000 25534000 25681000 25777000 25910000 26069000 26227000 26370000 26485000 26658000 26905000
SD/(7-12) .667090 .6829S7 ,7291627 .7936970 .8596908 .9352123 .9769058 1.002120 1.0148M9 1.018275 1.003964 .9745555 .9520132 .9316689 .9143763 .9015750 .8932523 .8f97458 .8899601 .8910058 IO    .09267
.  .   _  . *  _  __ ................................................. _ _ ..-     _ ---__-.-----_.-----.-_------   _.-.  _-.................._
13 IR OLD  3172113  3259804  3348141  3441552  3539369  3636763  3390000  3491000  3619000  3760000  3894000  4030000  4137000  4191000  4211000  424000   4257000  4276000  4302000  431000  4360000
SP1/IJYR .1709321 .1929018 .2122067 .2462191 .2556252 .3143719 .3894720 .4154311 .4783539 .5276453  605066  .6612719 .6147151 650600 6080664  5915225 .5747051  5547218 .5374655 .5344804 .5362907
SII OSD-660   0.53     0,57     0.62      0.62     0.73     0.74     0.73     0.78     0.82      0.85     0.85     0.85     0.85     0.85     0.85      0,85     0.85     0.85     0.85     0.85
SlP-I       542216   628822   710498   847376   904752  1143296  1320310  1450270  1731163  1983946  2356129  2664926  2543077  2577717  2560568  2508055  2446520  2371990  2312176  2314835  2338228
ShP2/SMPI     0.90     0.91     0.89     0.8       I.O5     0.95     0,94     O.9S     0,95      0.9S     0,95     M9       0.95    09        0.95      0.95     0,95     0.95     0.95     0.95
SIP-2       434623   489638   572592   633530   743560   951007  1088282  1247035  1377757  1644605  1884749  2238323  2531680  2415M23  2448831  2432539  2382653  2324194  2253391  2196568  2199093
SKP3/SMP2     0.92     0.95     0.96      0,98     1.08     0.9?     095      0.95     0.95      0.95     0.95     0.95     0,95     0.95     0.95      0.95     0.95     0.95     0.95     0.95
#tP-3       350972   399933   464276   547579   622491   800680   919990  1038715  1184683  1308869  1562374  1790511  2126407  2405096  2295127  2326389  2310912  2263520  2207984  2140721  2086739
1 GRADS       0.90     0.90     0.91     0.95      0.96     0.93     0.90     0.93     0.92     0.92      0.92     0.92     0,92     0,92     0.92      0.92     0.92     0.92     0.92     0.92     0.92
SMP3 GRAD   314871   361145   422604   520127   594805   744036   828767   96006  1089909  1204159  1437384  1647271  1956294  2212688  2111516  2140278  2126039  2082438  2031345  1969464  1919800
S9P TOTAL  1327811  1518393  1747366  2028485  2270803  2894983  3328582  3736020  4293602  4937419  5803252  6693760  7201163  7398735  7304525  7266984  7140085  6959704  6773551  6652123  6624060
PO  13-15  8280000  8528000  8784000  9048000  9319000  9599000  9887000 10160000 10473000 10843000 11244000 11654000 12033000 12331000 12511000 12651000 12680000 12741000 12807000 12883000 12968000
SAP/13-15 .1603636 .1780480 .1989260 .2241915 .2436745 .3015921 .3366625 .3677185 .4099687 .4553555 .5161199 .5743745 .5984512 .6000109 .5838482 ,5744197 .5630982 .5462447 .5288945 .5163489 .5108004
16 YR OLD  2780242  2915621  3629236  3124005  3210363  3297357  3389035  3190000  3278000  3361000  3462000  3589000  3729000  3864000  4002000  4107000  4162000  4184000  4208000  4229000  4251000
SlIAI/16YR  0447583 .0478262 .0472717 .0677483 .0810260 .1102544 .1329496 .1663834 .1915509 .2107827 .226842 .2603232 .2871349 .3290867 .3593821 3341820 .3342578 .3302881 .3216694 .3122191 .3011412
Sl/AI/SlP3G    0.44    0,48     0.50      0.50      61      0,61     0.64     0.5      0,65      0.65     0.65     0,65     0,65     0.65     06        0.65     0.65     0.65     0.65     0.65
? SA,   124439   139443   171560   211616   260123   363548   450571   530763   627904   708441   782703  934300  1070726  1271591  1438247  1370486  1391181  1381925  1353585 620374  1260151
.8 0.9       O            3     0.2      1.05     0,9      0.96      .9          6     0.96     0. 6     0,96     0.96     0,96     0.96      0.96     0.96     0.96     0,96     0.96
SM-2        103069   109764   123805   158857   194265   272577   332496   429808   509532   602788   680103   751395   896928  1027897  1220728  1380717  1317586  1335534  1326648  129442  126750
SI4A31SMA2    0.93     0.96     0.98     0,94      1*07     0.93     0,96     0.96     0.96      0.96     0,96     0.96     0.96     0.96     0.96      0.96     0,96     0.96     0.96     0.9a
SNA-3        91488    95748   105697   121357   149369   207273   252949   325893   412616   489151   578676   652899   721340   861051   986781  1171898  1325489  1264883  1282112  1273583  1247464               C t
Z GRADS       0.89     0.89     0.92     0.91      1.03     0.90     0,93     0.93     0.93      0.93     0,93     0.93     0,93     0,93     0,93     0.93      0.93     0,93     0.93     0.93     0.93
SIA3 GRAD    81090    85340    97232   109832   154460   186786   234033   303080   383733   454911   538169   607196   670846   800777   917706  1089866  1232704  1176341  1192364  1184432  1160141
SA TOTAL   318996   344955   401062   491860   603757   843398  1036016  1286464  1550052  1800380  2041483  2338594  2688993  3160S39  3645756  3925101  4034256  3982342  3962346  3893399  3795175
POP 16-18  7693000  7901000  8114000  8333000  8558000  8789000  9027000  9277000  9536000  9797000 10070000 10381000 10747000 11148000 11562000 11941000 12239000 12420000 12521000 12589000 12658000
S1IA/16-18 .0414657 .0436597 ,0494284 .OS90256 .0705488 .0959606 .1147686 .1386724 .1625474 .1837685 .2027292 .2252764 .2502087 .2835072 .3153222 .3287079 .3296230 .3206394 .3164560 .3092699 .2998242
DAlA MD PROJECTIONS FROIM 1980/81 ICLUDE TIIIUR TIIIOR
Source: A, Nazareth, op. cit.



PRINTOUT-3: INDOISIACOUT SURIYILV  POILE
8 NO     1193                                                                  IRGET CRUKE ElRU.LKNI RATES IETHOD
(SDo S1P-GERM. SMP-NERAL)
.......... .............. _..  _  _......
DATA    DATA      DATA     DATA      DATA     DATA     DATA      DATA     PROJ.   PRJ.   FROJ.          OJ.   PROJ.   R PROJ       O.   PROJ.    POJ.          OJ.    POJ.   PROJ    MPJ.
1974     1975    176       1977     1978/79  1979/80  I"O/81  IS11/82  1982/83  I"3/14  1984/8 5  1M/56  1996/87  1997/8  1M8/89  IM9/    1990/91  1991/2  M1 /93  19934  1V4/95
7 TR OLDS  3t31000  3770000  4010000  4050000  4090000  4131000  4173000  4260000  43030   425000  4324000  4342000  4349000  4354000  439000  4436            4455     4470000  4476000  45500   4620
S5-1/7 YR     0,88     0,89      1.00     1.07     1,21      1,38     1.25     1.24     1.30      1.21     1.20     1.20     1.20      1.20     1.20     1.20     1.20      1.20     1.20     1.20     1,20
SD-I       3446835  3552670  4002377  4331285  4929754  5682323  5221513  5284519  5593900  5184850  5199800  5210400  5218900  5224800  5277600  5323200  534000  5364000  5371200  5467200  5553600
53-2/50-1  20289    0 92         0,94     0.9 3   0.92      0.89      0.93  40.9595   A3          .96l      91      .61      09        I9       0.9      0.96     0.96      0.96     0.96     0.96
SD-2       2          629t95  3067592  3253994  3747171  355;770  4511658  5076253  48434  5020578  533097  4"92641  4U98637  5007194  50100i4  5015908  5046496  5110272  5132160  5149440  5156352  5248512
S-3/1S-2     0.89     0.92      0s96     0,93    0M*1      0.92      0.92      942    .953       *953     .953     .954     O.96      0.96     0.96     0.6      0,96      0.96     0.96     0.96
SIF3       2501138  2512291  2922812  3120022  346635   3608747  4153127  4474669  4567602  478411  5060430  4748457  4757061  480697  4809646  4815176  4863836  4905861  4926874  4943462  495009O
SD-I/SD-3     014                  9               7  0.              0.90     1939 I    939      Y939     .939     .939     0.94      0.94     0,94     0,94     0,94    0*94       0,94     0,94
SD 4       2003m2  204S23  2217059  2s38n9  277O-16372 3006211  3243646  3719695  4296021  428978  4492750  4770524  4456901  4471637  4518492  4521067  4526265  4572006  4611509  4631261             855
83-5/80-4     0,84     0.86     0.89      0.98     0.87     090       0.90     .923      .95       .95     I95      OM5       .96       .96      ,96      .96       .96      .96      .96      .96
SD-5       162750  1682093  18l11i1   194465  2242429  2404792  2703793  2922037  3433278  4081i20  4074529  4290576  455560  4280449  4292772  4337t53  4340225 '434521   438S926  4427049  4446011
0D-     84    08          7        U      03        0.0      09                 .9       .99      .0        .99      09       09       091      0.91   3 0,91      0,91     0.91     0,91
12997"16  1360629   1443433  N158446  1710811 °191D 33  2150309  24114i4   262M33  3312050  37091299  3703747  3900133  41456214 38950   3064        47355  3949604  3954145  3994104  4029615
1 MAPS        0.91     0.91      0.94     0.92     0.92     0.92      0.92     .942     .945      .948     .95      .95       .96     0.6       0,96    0M9       0,96     0.96      0.96     0.96     0.96
836 GRAM   118005  1242761  1353262  1453213  1569914  1795778  1I91266  2219439  2485192  2956566  3535467  355169   3744128  397999   3739400  3750165  379441  3791620  3795979  3634340  3867470
SD TOTA   1370786  14290157 15550124 21726529  3907   9 21165724 2255870 23862488 254121  2679145~ 75 79271040 2M789740 27939664 2780926 27970114 281333953 21268946 28402294 266I9429 29873690
POP 712  24"99000 209  0213 262 17530  I228               22632000 23050    23012000 24446 2405025              2        25 000 257770002            2606900026227000 26370000 26485000 2665802695000
931(7-123 .6687090 .6299  .7962? .7936970 .8596906  9352123 t9769058 1,002120 1.044801 1.075748 3.068963 3.852  1.086322 3.0389  1.073312 1.072926 1.072710 1.072006 1.072392 1.073573 1,073172
-.---_                        -_ -_.--_.._ -t.----_------ -__--.------- .----@--@---- --                                        ----------------------- 
13 YR OLD  3172113  325S904  3348141  3441552  3539269  3636763  3390000  3491000  3361900  37610 389409   4030000  4137000  4191004 211000  4240000  4257000  427600  4302000  4331000  4360000
SWI/13YR .1709321 1929018 .2122067 .2462191 .2556252  3143719 .3894720 .4154311 3957002 4302588  4554206 .4438139  4743164 *4978  14910252 5224705 5362389 .5363770 559654 .57961 .5820528
SlIf/SD-66D   0,53     0,57      0.62     0U.2     0.73     0,74      0.73     o.n      0.65    o0.65      o.60     05I    0.55        0.56     0,52     0.59     0,63     0.63      0.64     0.66
SII-I       542216   628822   710499   847376   904752  1143296  1320310  1450270  1432039  1617773  1773400  1798570  1962247  2086149  2067707  2215275  2282769  2293548  243173  2510456  2537750
W-2         434623   48969381  570259    63330   743560   950100   108212  1247635  137°757  1360i37  1536884  1684738  13699142  1864135  I19 942  1604322  2104531  2168631  2178271  2313044  2384933
SI31SIW2      0,92     0.95     0.96      0.99     1.06     0.97      0.95     0.9      0.95     0.95      0.95     0.9      0.95     0.95      0.95     0.95     0.95     0.5       0.95     0.95
W-3         3972   39O33   464276   547579   622491   60060   91190  1038715  1184683  1308616  1292415  1460040  1605O1I 1634184  177029  13882749  I86106  32    206039  20627  2397392
1 WRA         0.90     0.90     0,91      0.5      09       0.93      0.9       .2      09        .2       09        .292       2     0,92      0.92     0.7      0.g 92   0,92      0.92     0.j92  20.092
SWi IRA)  334871   3615   5212    59 5   741036   s27   95             106      12041   1189022   314323   172461  1485050  16292        32      1736817  189343      5      9333   21600
SW  TOTAL  1327l11  1518393  1747366  2028485  2270603  289493  3328562  3736020  394479  420707n  4602706  4933343  526188   5564468  582046  6062346  6253386  6461464  6673853  6893427  7120075
POP 33-5  329000   8529000  8784000  9048000  9319000  959100   M97000 1016000  1047300  10643000 11244000 11654OOO 1203300  12331000 32511000 12651000 3268000  12741000 12107000 12983001296800
SNP/13-15  1603636  70480  1989260  2241915 2436745  3015921 3366625 *3677185 3814073 .3953775 .4093479 .4233180 o4372982  45128   46S52297 .49199   4931692 .5071395.523M  .5350793 .540496
…--------- -- -- -- ---                             ……-                                   .         ….…
36 TR OLD  2780242  2915623  3629236  3324005  32103W3  3297357  3389035  3190000  327800  336300 34620    35890  3729000  3864000  4002000  4107000  4362000  4184000  4208000  422_000  4251000
SI'Al/16YR .0447583 .047262 .0472717 .0677483 .0810260 .3IO2544 .3329496 .s663834 .1403063 .1596091  13766806.1570049 .l7300  .1973543 .1733949  16635 .193070 .l985  .20041 .2117611 °2105473
131;4         4                                    7              4jj41                       1.48     0,46    ~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~0j46  0.47  0,4
MY"    12W38i 4 1 1 8   210^^*   24111   UhU    4101  5389,4 45 1                                751     611°96 57 4i1   6          66   nl7l    6+47        448  o u      8       81 O              S7    0
Sff2/SM3      0,9      0O."      0.93     0.92     3.05     0.9I    0.96       0.95    0.9     O.9      0o.9      05       0.9S    Of?       0,95     0.95     0.5      0.95      0.95     0.95,
SM-2        103069   309764   123805   158857   194265   272577   332496   429903   504225   436934   509624   501131   535316   613003   687740   659230   729076   7804              02   00935   850764
SM3/$M2       0.93     0.96      0.99     0.94     1.07     0.93      0.96     0.95     0.95     0,    095 0.95 0.5           0.9     0.95      0,95     0.95     0.95     0.95      0.95     0.95
SM-3         91488    95748   105697   323357   19369   207273   252949   325893   406333   47904   415087   484143   552055   508550   562353   453353   626269   692622   74838   713367   761879             
I DRABS       0.89     0,89     C,?       0.9I     1.03     0.90      0.93     0.92     0492     0,92      0.92     0.92     0.92     092       02       0.92     0.92    09         0.92     0.92     0.92
swP mu MAD    83 90    5340    97232   109832   334460   186786   234033   29992   37564    440693   383990   445431   507891   467866   535765   601065   576167   637232   688747   656114   70061
SM   TOTL   311  344754   40062  09   3 57  843399  10360  12286459  3372X    14534  1536M47  1628744  1732638 1845490  1964019  206001 2384860  2270675  23434    2430643  2507639
POP 16-IB  769        0100  831000  8333                 8    O 8    27W    9277000        0 9536107            10381000 1o747              11562000 11941    13000 12420000 12523    12890  126580
SW16-I1  0414657  0436597 .0494294k .0590256 .0705488 .0959606 .1147686 .1386719 .1439250 .1482489 .1525n2 .1568967 .1612206 .655445 .1685 .1741924 .1785162 .1826402 .1871641 .1914880 .981070
…     @*    .......................__.....  ........ ......... .  . .....….-- -....  ...... .
DATA ANDP MOJEC1IONS FROM 1990/81 INLUK TIN   TIO
Source: A. Nazareth, op. cit.



PRINTOUT -21       INIESIAI REf CE REOU IIETS
10 N4CH 1993                                                                            TREND PR O.EC1ON  METHOD 1   IUM   A         TS1NT 10 STEADY STATE FOR SD-I EULMNIS
ISit SHP-CERM    SM-GE3RI
1974     1975      1976      1977      1978/79  1979/50  IM/SI  1991/82  192/83  199/84  1994/85  1995/9   1996/87  1917/8  I99/89  199/90  I90/91   1991/92  1992/93  1 M3/94  1994/95
__ . .. ..... ..._ ........ ............. ..... ........ .. .. ...... ........ _.. .... ... __._. .. .               _... ..... ........ ..  ..... . . ...... . ............. ._. ... ..._ ..... .. .__..._. ....
so
._....... .. ...
?UIW~ITLOTS 1J1707    142801i IY5                 15550I3  1726521  19074819 211657jl 2255%30 238624fl  248102ij 25360114 2538023^  246843n  244466i 240156N  2369141  23503111 234273H  23462513 2357053  2375241  23970311
TEAChER R0T5         428371   446255   485941   539540   596081   661429   704746   745703   775320   792505   73112   777634   764020   750489   740359   734474   732104   733206   736581   142264   749074
K1U TEACIR SLOtS                  17964    3966    53599    56548    65341    43317    40957    29617    17185              627   -15497   -13614   -13532   -10129    -5865    -2370           1102     3375      52        6811
TE&SLOT/TEACHER           ". 31                .1       .3        .1        .3        .3       I1.09   73t08    71.O1                         1.04      1.02    1,005          1         3        1         I  
YE   RIS              189128   405i36   4 41 45'   4 904i .9 11   4541899   601299   640671   6779li 3 0411    727068   734381   73361    734635   735773   736676   734474   732104   733206   736581   742261   749074
NEU IEADIERS                      16258    36079    46726    51407    59401    39379    37233    26924    22232            7313      -764      1018      1136      903    -2202    -2370        1102     3375      5682      6811
EACKH, REtRACEIET                 9736    10142    11044    12262    13547    15032    16017    16940    17621    18177    18360    19340    18366    18394    18417    18362    18303    18330    18415    18557
IOTIL REV TEACHERS               25"94    46221    59770    63669    72946    54412    53250    43872    39953    25490    17596    19358    19504    19297    16215    15992    19405    21705    24097    25368
STUDMET/SEAIS            1.15      1.15      1.35      315                         l.l5 1.15  l        .15  1.15  1.35  1.15  1,14  1.11      1.09     1.07      1.05      1.04      1.03      1.02     1.01         1         1
SD SEATS             11919993 12417529 13521847 15013297 3658679  18404977 19610322 207499   21574113 2205229  22263347 2241389 2242995  22444514 22563323 2259192 22744979 23002546 2337222 23752433 23970383
497644  1104319  1491450  1573503  3818171  1205344  113968"   824121   479187   211048   154941    11S61    14515   118910    3568g   145717   257568   331466   435213   217950
'A I F/ K 1 1   45        45        45        4S       45        45        45        45        45       45        45        4s        45        4s       45        4s        45        45       45        45        45
SD R0345               264896   275945   300485   333629   368596   4069          4357a5   461111   479425   49051   494741   499184   496443   499767   501407   502204   505444   531116    538605   527832   532675
NEW 8S                            11059    24540    33143    34967    40404    26785    25326    19314    10626            4690      3443       259       324     2640       797      3240      5724     74317     9227       4143
SWWL NIS       132791  13516393  1747366  2028485  2270103  294993  3319562  3736020  429360 4971   5603252  W69763  7201163  7399735  730451   7266994  7140085  6959704  6773551  6652123  6624060
SIDTATRSLOTS      26.7      267      26.7      26.7      26,7      26.7      26.7     26,7      267       26.7      26.7      26.7      26.7     26.7      26.       26.7      26.7     26,7      26,7      24.7      26.7
IE ACHIR SLOTS          49731    56869    65444    75973    85049   108426   124666   I13926   16060    194922   217350   250703   269706   277106   273578   272172   267419   26063   253693   249143   248092
NEW IENM       R SOTS              7338     8576    10529       9076    23371    16240    15260    2063    24113    32426    33352    19004             7400    -3529    -1406    -4753    -6756    -6972    -4549    -1051
TFACM.ILOT/IEACHE.R       .5       1.5      13        335        .3        35       13         35      33        1.5       13          35     15        135         .3       .75              , 1.5       11       30 
TEAD3IA                361da6    42105    4814757   561276    61499    uu33 6'   923145   10369   319181  1397    161000   19476   1117813   205264'  2101444   2371 ?P    222141   2266' 64   230426   237'271   24609i
NEW TEACHERS                       5287      6352     7799      6723    17317    12029    11304    15469    17961    24021    24705    14077            5483      5163      7293      5112      3814     396       6651    10613
TEACH. REPLACEMENI                  921     1053      3212      1407      1575      2006     2309      2591      2979      3424      4025      4643     4995      5132      5261      5443     5571      5667      5766      5932
TOTAL NEV IEACIERS                6208      7406      9011      9130    1862    14037    13632    1906          20839    27445    29730    1872        10476    10332    12554    10555        9386      9633    12417    16745
SIUKKID/SEATS           1.258    1.258    1.258    1.258    t. 28    1.258    1.256    3,258            1,25     1.24      1.23    1.225       3,22      3.23     1.19      III?      3.14       1.1     1.06      1.03         I
SMP SEATS             1055414  320699   13389003  3632468  3805M9  2301256  2645932  296990   3434682  3991790  4738091  5464294  5902592  6114657  6138256  6211097  6263232  6327004  6!'~H43  6458372  6624060
NEW SEATS                        353496   16Ž014   223465   192622   496369   344673   323679   465073   546906   736302   746203   438298   232065    23599    72941    52135    63772    6333                   68230   165687
SEAISiROCN                 40        40        40        40       40        40        40        40        40       40        40        40        40        4!       40        40        40        40       40        40        40
SWI RO0OKS              26387    30175    34725    40312    45127    57531    66148    74245    85872    99545   317952   136607   147565   15296    353456   355277   15658                 158175   359754   361459   165601
DEV 90033                          3787      4550     5587      4816    12404       8637      8097    11627    13673    16408    18655    10957         5302       590      1821      1303      1594     1579      1706      4142
CAP,COST IN RF.AIL  2789670  3190074  3671135  4263753  4770852  6082226  6993197  7849206  9071393 10523871 12469I1614442129 13600~52 16161038 16223411 16415930 16553723 16722271 1689947 17069478 17507390
NEW CAP COSI                    400404   481062   590618   50909   1311373   910972   956008  3229187  1445478  3946045  3972234  3356423   560487    62373   392519   137792   368548   366876   180331   437932
.^%f* ........................ ................... - >@">X- >*- - i- * - -  - Be^@- ~     "- - - -  -- -- -*- -- -- - - -- --- - - - - - .=***@e"* ......... . ............ .* ........................-  - -
SMA
5AENVL  NI~NS       3JIM9    344155   40161   491160   603IS7   84339   O3f 10 1             126435523    380  2041148   23 f94  2             3  336l9 364575    392510    045   3992347  3967346  369339 37                7
SIUD/TEAC3(K SLOTS       2         2.3  a       a     21.3 2      .3      23.3               23.3      23.321,3            23.3      23.3      za 7     23.3      23 3      2         23,       2        2         213       2
TEACHER SLOTS           13691    145       17213    21310    25912    36197    44464    55213    66526    77270    87637   100369   135407   135645   356470   168459   373144   170936   17008   16709    16298
IIE  TEIaC     SLOTS               1134     2406      3897      4802    126M        8267    30749    11231    10744    10348    12752    15039    20236    20825    1199              4685    -2229      -858    -2959    -426
TEACHERSLOTEACHR         1,59      1i29      1.59     1.59      1.59      3.59      1,59      3.59     1.59    1.          1.i9      1.59     3.W9      1.59      1.59      1,59      1.59      1.52     3.47      3.43      1392
UEACHERS                8633       5 933   30626    11277    16297    22766    27965    340725    41840    4597    55105    63125                 3    95312       409    05949   1      6   112445 18    116652   117382
NEU TUEAIRI                         701      1514     2451      3020      6469      5199      6760      7115     6757      6506      8020      9458    32726    33097       7540      2946      3549     3241      1167       330
TEACH. REPACEIENT                   235      233       271       332       407       569      699       868      1046      1215      1379     1579      1815      2133      2460     2649      2722      2911      2992      2921
TO1AL NEV TEACHERS                  914     1747      2722      3352      6876      5766     7459      79"3    7203        7723      9397    11036    34543    15230    10001         5595     6271      6052      4059      3251
STUDENT/SEATS            1.35     1.35      1.35      1.35      1.35      1.34      1.33      1.32     3.31       1,3      1.29     l.26       1.24     3.22       1.2      1,16      1.12     1.01       1.04     1.01         1
S   SEATS              236293   255522   2'97063   364341   447227   629401   779959   974594  t1832    1384907  1594906  3856027  2168543  2590605  3038130  3383709  3602034  3687354  380948  385480   379
IAUIIEA                 ~~~19229    41536k    67256    82967   182174   14955    395635   20865    20161i   210003   261319   31251 6   422063   447524   345570   218306    95340   122594    44902   -596725
Sl3                                       3 3 5    3        5  35 35             3          5    ss735                 iS      35            5        35        35        35       35        35        35        35        35
Sm M 5056751                       7301      9488    10410    32771    1799        22256    27846    33807    39569    45569    53029    61958    74037    66804    96677   102935   305353  1l685    110139   106434
NEW r"oMs                           549      3367     1922      2368      5205      4273      5590      961      5762      6000      7441      8929    12059    12796       9874      6237      2438     3503      1203    -1705
CAP.COST IN W.IL    608692   658225   765286   938542  1352058  362330  2W0 4993   2510554  3048041  3567521  4106494  4791125  5566517  6673400  7926222  8716432  927879   949623  "14425  9930094  9776370
NEU CAP COSI                      49534   107060   173256   213516   469290   315261   503955   537487   51948    540963             2642 892l   41  3087233  1152822   890230   562356   219835   315803   31566 -u53724
_ ^w -w ^b* -i  ------------------ -  ---------------------------...  -   ------- -  - - -  --  -  --                                    -       " ---- -  ---  -  -----" -  --  -  -- -   ------ - --------...................        ----wz  *  B_.............................  --w-¢*  ^----^---    *----      Z -----s---  ~      ------__
….…..…                                                            …       …    …….. .……….
TOTAL CAPITAL COST  339361  384829  4436421  52002     5922930  770364  89" 9797 10359760 12126434 140913921657139  19223255 21386738 22834438 24049633 25132362 25832511 26220894 26703572 249972 272
NIEW . W     COST                449      58822   763874        u261   3790654  1296233  1359963  17674  19649     2487006  2644855  1963464  1647720  1215195  1082729   700148' 388383   482679   29599    294168
................. .E ...ER          .1 ...      7     272 ......          487       574 .^5 ........             780 ....                                                                                ..9 ........ .e^  ....... 59  27    35



PRINIOUI -4 I       INDON4ESIA, RESOURCE REGUIRENENTS
S MACH  2983                                                                                        168ff  CRUDE ERU.LIENT RATES I(E111D
(SD SIIP-GEPEKMLi SM-GENERAL2
1974      215 3s976           2977      (978/79  3979180  1980/811  191/92  1982183  2903/84  1984/95  1995/06  1906187  3997/S8  1988/89  I98/90  I990/91  I99I/92  1992193  1993/94  1994/95
SD (NRO.LLIENIS      13707866 14280157 15550124 17265291 19074819 21165724 22551870 23862489 25541212 26791495 27528979 27710140 27897840 21939664 27809526 27970114 28133953 28268846 28402294 29419429 286873690
STUD/TEACHER SLOIS         32         32        32        32        32        32        32        32        32        32        32        32        32        32        32        32       32        32        32        32        32
TEACHER SLOTS          428371   446255   495941   539540   596081   661429   704746   7$  73   799263   837234   960292   965942   8718Q    873115   969049   97406                     71        941 871             9379"0
NEV TEACHER SLOIS                 17O8      J9694    53599    56541    65342    43327    4ov97    52461            9071    2306         5661     5566      1307    -4067       5015      51o       4211      4170      679       716
IEACH.SLOT/TEACTER        1.1       1.1       1.1       1.1       1.1        1.1       III       1.1       1.1     1.09      1.09      1.06      1.04      1.02    1.005           I         1        I         I                   I 
IEACHERS               3894296  405686   441765   490491   541998   601299   640878   677912   72503   768105   796556   516926   918276   85599    8644724   8740 86  79196   893401   887572   894357   902303
NEV TEACHERS                      16258    36079    48726    51407    59401    39379    37733    47691    42502    28451    20370    21350    17718                  8729      9342      51210     4215      4170      4785      7946
TEACH. REPLACE&ENT                 9736    10142    11044    12262    13547    15032    16 17    26948    19140    19203    29914    20423    20957    21400    21619    21852    21980    2208                       22189    22359
iTOTM  NEW TEACHERS               25994    462221    59770    63669    72948    54412    53250    64639    60642    4/654    40284    41773    38675    30129    30960    26972    26295    262155    28975    3030
STUDENT/SEATS            3.35      3.25      1.15      3.15      1.15       1.15      1.15      1.15      1.25      2.25      1.14      1.11      1.09     1.07      2.05       1.04     1.03      1.02      1.02          II
SD SEA, S            11919893 12417529 13521847 15013297 16586799 19404977 19610322 20749990 22209750 23296952 24148227 24964090 25594349 2611t836 26485263 26894340 27334517 27714555 286121083 28619429 29873690
NEW SEATS                        497644  2204329  1491450  1573503  1918178  1205344  1139668  1459760  10872103   8522175   825963   430259   517487   373428   409077   420177   400038   406528   498344   254261
SEATS/OOII                  45        45        45        45        45        45        45        45        45        45        45        45        45        45       45         45       45        45        45        45        45
so ROOS                :64886   275945   300485   JJ3629   368596   408999   435785   461111   493550   517710   536627   554758   568763   580263   588561   597652   40698    615879   624923   635997   641638
NEW ROOIS                         11059    24540    33143    34947    40404    26785    25326    321439    24160    18917    19130    14006    11500                 8298      9091      9337       MO9    9034    11074         5650
'WPE'NRO~LLIEMT       1327811  2518393  1747364  2028485  2270803  284983  3328582  3736020  3994479  42807079  4602708  4933348  5262989  5564469  5820476  6062346  425338   6461464  4673853  4893427  7220075
STUD/TEACNER SLOTS         20         20        20        20        20        20        20        20        20        20        20        20        20        20       20         20       210       20        20        20       'I0
IEACH4ER SLOIS          46391    75920    97368   101424   113540   244749   166429   186801   199724   214354   230135   246667   263094   278223   291024   303217   312669   323073   333693   344671   356004
NEW TZACHER SLOTS                  9529    22449    24056   122226    32209    21680    20372    22923    14630    15781    16532    16427    15129    12280                  12093      9552    10404    10619    10979    11332
TEACH#SLOI/IEACHER       1.35      1.35      1.35      1.35      2.35      2.35      1,35      1.35      1,35      1.35      1.35       1.35     1.35      1.35       I.3      1.25       2.2      3,25       2.2      1,05         I
TEACHERS                492198   56237    6471?    75129    84104   107222   123281   138371   147944   258782   170472   282727   349485   206093   223864   242494   260558   290933   303357   328258   356004
KYW TEACKERS                       7059      8480    10412       8975    213118    16059    15090        9573    10837    1 1690      12246    12168    11207    17773    19629    18064   210375    22424    24902    27745
IEACH. REPLACETTENT                1229      1406      i162      1979      2103      2681      3082      3459      3699      3970      4262      4568      4972      5152      5597      6062      4514      7023      7584      8206
TOTAL MNE  TEACHERS                8288      9886    12030    10853    25220    19740    28172    13032    14536    15659    26509    16736    26079    22925    24226    24326    26889    29447    32485    35952
STUDENT/StATS           1.258     1.258     1.258     1-259     1.258     1.258      1,258     1,258      1.25      2.24      1.23    1.225       1,22     1,21      l.29       2.17     1,14        I.3     1.06      2.03          I
SRP SEATS             1055494  1206990  2399003  1612468  28050?0  2301258  2645932  2969809  3195583  3457322  3742039  4027223  4313024  4598734  4891157  5191492  5485424  5874058  6296087  6692647  7120075
NEV SEATS                        251496   282014   223465   1926212   496269   344673   323878   22774   262739   284737   285184   285802   M8573    292423   290336   303934   388632   422029   394560   427427
SEATS/ROOM                 40         40        40        40        40        40        40        40        40        40        40        40        40        40       40         40        40       40        40        40        40
SI?98c2                 26387    30275    34472       40312    45127    57531    46148    74245    7989  096431    93551   100681   107924   114968   122279   12937   137236   146851   157402   367316   278002
NEW Ro's                           3797       545      5587      4916    12404       8617      8097      5644      4543      7118      72 30     7245      7143      7311      7258      7598      9716    10551       9914    10468
CAP.COST  IN RP.KIL  2789670  3190074  3671135  4242753  4770852  6092226  6993197  7949206  8445926  9137701  9890208 10643949 11399322 12154454 12927327 23694484 14497981 15525136 26640559 1768867  U1810358
NEW CAP COST                     400404   482042   590628   509099  1311373   910972   856008   596720   692775   752507   753742   755373   755132   772873   767357   903297  2027355  31115423  3049108  1229693
SMA
SPA ENROLLMTENTS       31B96   344955   401062   492860   603757   943398  1036026  228459  1372448  1452394  1536407  1628744  3732638  1845490  1964039  2090031  2184960  2270975  2343482  2410643  2507639
STUD/TEACHER SLOTS          18        19        to        i9        18        to        i8        lo        18        to        i8        19        t8        18        i8        19        i9        to        t9        to        t9
TEACHER  MsLT           17122    19264    22281    27326    33542    4485           57556    71470    76249    8068         85356    90484    9625    102527   109112   115557   1222381   126160   130193   233925   139313
NEW TEACHER SLOTS                  1442      3117       044      6217    13313    10701    13914         4778      4440      4667      513       5772      6270      658       6445      58214     4779      4034      3731      538
TEACH.SLOhITEACH!R       1.59      1.59      1.59      1.59      2.59      1.59      1.59      2.59      1.59      1.59      2.59      1.59      1.59      1.59      1.59      1.59      1.59      1.52      1.47      1.43      1.39
TEACHERS                21146    22053    14033    27296    22096    29469    34299    44950    47955    50749    53683    54909    60539    64483    68624    72679    76340    83000    88567    93654   100225
KUW TEACHERS                        907       2960     3273      3930      9373      6730      8751      3005       2793     2935       3226     3630      3943      4141       4054     3663      6659      55 67     5087      6572
TEACH. REFLIXACENT                  279       30:       350       430       527       737       905      1124      1199      3249      3342      2423      2523      2612      1726      1817      1909      2075      2214      2341
IOIML NY EW ACERS                  1186      2262      3523      4339      8901      7467      9656      4129      3992      4204      4568      5053      5457      5754      5769      5480      8569      7642      7302      8913
STUDENI/SEATS            1.35      1.35      1.35       1.35     1,35       2.34      1.33      1.32      1.31       2.3     1.28       2.26      1.24     3.22       1.2       1,16      1.12     1.08      3.04      3.02          I
SIIA SEATS            2136293   255522   297083   364341   447227   6219401   779959   974590  1047686  1117226  1200319  1292654  1397299  1512697  363663  1793131  1950768  2102642  2253348  2386775  2507639
NEW SEATS                         19229    41561    47258    82887   182174   149558   195631    73096    49540    83092    92336   104634   125408   123986   256448   157638   151894   25068    233427   120864                         -I1
SEATS/ROOMS                35         35     '35          35        35        35       35         35        35        35        35        35        35        35        35        35        35        35       35        35        35         I
SN A RO022S              6752      7302      9498     10410    22779    279?83    22254    27845    29934    32922          34295    36933    39923    43220    46762    51232    5523            60074    644m1      6894    73647
NEV ROWIS                            549      229       3922     2369      5205       4273     5589       208       199       2374      2638        9      3297      3542       4470     4504      4340      410       382       3"453
CAP.COSTIN t V.IMM     608692   658225   765286   938542  1252058  1622338  200659?  2530545  2698839  2877975  3092019  3329877  3599425  3896707  4234094  4639304  5025179  5426457  5804625  6148333  6459677
NEW CAP cost                      49534   107060   173256   213516   469280   385261   503945   189294   179136   224045   217858   269538   297292   319388   403010   406074   392278   388168   343708   312344
TOTAL CAPITAL COST  3399362  3848299  4436421  5200295  5922910  7703564  8999797 10359750 212144744 12015676 12982227 13973927 14998739216051161217143422 18313789 19523160 20941593 22445394 23837000 2578035
NEW CAP. COST                    449938   588122   763874   722615  2780654  2294233  1359954   785024   670911   966552   991599  1024911  1052423  1092261  1170367  1209372  1419433  1503591  2392924  1442035



INDONESIA
Secondary Education Sector Study
Education Budget Projections and Impact
of Secondary Education Action Program
Repelita IV (1984/5-88/9) and V (1989/90-93/4)
&                                                       13164        £435         6306         16-11        SiN          u-n          it-to         901-4        I-t2         9293         93.94              It9e121a IV  RepliltA V
.. .....................                      .. _...... -.                 - -                            ......-............_._.................-                              . .. . .......
. ...
20 ?v1alea rp                                          23,6          23,594       23,435       23,640       23,473       23,413       23,173       23,73S        23,756       23,777       23. 7                  11124.100      117119.00
12 L.er kwet S  v                                        2,596        2,943        3,3`5        3,7191       4,v1l        4,24         4,1e1        5,075        5,422         5,770        6,117                 21471.00    27222.00
23   SRI                                                 2,552        1  *,I       3,351        3,152        4,058        4,722        4,107        5,09         5,422         5 ,74           1,6                 285.00    27057.00
I4   .eca1amlle                                             47           41           44           39           31            22           71           IJ           11            6            I                    21300         55.00
Is
urper Si      ary                                       2,094 1         07        1,314        2,425        2,506        2,716         2,652        2,19*1      2,172         2,256        2,391                   19.      4  007.00
In SM5 13S                                                                           9035         912        1,038        1,750        2,790         2,317        1,4I3       12,50         1,417                   4MY.00       7411.0
S1 9lo valweeal                                            233          2.3          393          325          349           42           441          417          525           552         $15                   2250.00      2513.0
29 16S'i I1                                                             2            224           242                       12            1           122          123          225          1                                      .0
70
22  a;tmor ItEa,lion                                      3Il           405          464          So0          571            24            036                                  i97          959                   2552.00      42173.0
72   SagIra                                                 10           15           90          270           too          150          115          2t9          215          Z15          255                    515.00      2075.00
23   Strata I                                              3l0          325          349          I7l           414          451          524          s55          592          63l          470                   293S.00      29u0.00
24   str1ta 11  1 A                                          3            5             7           9            IJ            9           71           23t79                      11          34                     53.00       2  .00
252
77  Pfav                                                350.0         e. X         ;SN 15.00    23.00        20.00        3e.00         22M          21.04        21.00          c.0o       21.00                    211.00       217.00
I   Ie. r so-n ar                                       345.0        452  J       39 4.0       793.00       212.00       4,3.00       347.00        34.00        341.00       347.00       352.00                   27315.00    1240.00
29    SP                                                345.00       455.00       402.00       SA.M         260.00       449.00       357.00       352.00       353.00        352.00       35N.001                  2622.0       1171.0
3S       ill6 11                                          0.00        -3J0 O        .J 7 51.00               4.00         -2.00         -5.00         S 00        -5.00        -500         -2.00                    -2.00        -21.00
32  Uorw  SttimrJ                                       12.14        204.U11      10.20        9n.34        212.24         3.96        2.0          234.00       135.411      23%.00       119.00                    A44.         4511.001
3; id74.37                                                            73.00        A7M          64.0.       222.00        40.00       9n.oe         94.00        9.00          97.00        97.00                    415.00       436.0
is   SAt4 VC(A1,o4aI                                     So.C.)       30.00        32.00        24.00        7.00         22.00 3N 700               37.00        36.00        37.0         2.00                      7.          21.00
34   S    ! 0                                             9.14         3.78         2.10         0.54        -0.04          2.           2.0          2.00         2.00         2.00         2.00                      3.3          7 0
35 4aqftir Eauclwn                                       32.00        41.00        62.00 X       0.00        s.00         04.00         46.0        60.00        42.0          42.0         U3.00                    sos.e        327.00
36
31 1U2l- SCl4t 11AC1tIS  lOh l2
It ............ --         -1 -   -   -------+
3J    Pr,,ary                                              413          494          495          49           494           All          47           A9           4l             9          1                     3471.15      3493.53
40   SeUtoarf                                              IN           O      29    324          241          26            20           23           336          359          31405 J274.                                     29.1  M.14
441         2lt                                             i3           25           21           32           35            so           44           40           SI           55           St                           256.20  M.32
421
It ...........  .....
S3   Senier  Stcoea#rw                                  2111,3       301.n9       ;|*.u        53X. l       31M?         u71.e1       u1.oe        41U5         sse.11        sU4.44       51117.                   2et01.73
4   3PRIVATE 2MLltiU  ISl 60o00
49 Ad4ia2a.su  1relIa1im       to fal. ll      111 11'
So total Sr(dary                                        141.00       557.00       59.00        49.40        453.0 5e 2.00              40,0         490.00       439.e0       4.           49.00                    27.00        2 .
52  Lutr  Setteairy                                     281.04       372.00       324.00       245.00       2.0110       3114.1        234.00       265.00       254.00       2114.0 4     265.00                   1461.0       1413.0
S~ I78p.r Siavluw                                       234.00       232.00       235.0        274.00       349.00        227.90       204.00       205.0        205.0        204.00       244.0                    2024.00    12024.00
53 
54    11th9210995
5 s   .l2ael tspe.422ve ISluEe 411e1. 0hl
57  Prowl                                                42.70        42.20        41.20        41.20        42.20        41.20         42.20        42.70        42.20        42.2         42.20                       .00       20.0            p...
J6  lKoly                                                70.70        70.70        70.70        70.10         70.10        7,0.0        170.7        70.70        70.70        7e.7         70.10                      35         33450            0 
59  ulUlit                                              315.40       375.40       315.4        315.40       395.40       317.0         315.40       3175.40      315.0        375.40       375.4                    I n.0         23770



n5 bnl. OKurn iN t I5.A   Illu  OOhl
02  N5oars                                          *.00        6.40        0.0         0.0         0.00        0.0         0.40       LO4         *.40        SM          *IN                    S°          0.40
03  kSodutr                                         57.4 "1.0 ""             .0 "1.'0              17.UO       17.N0       11.0        II.6       171.0U      11.0         1.10                   17.IN      17.0
U4  lil*w                                         I0.1.       I01W        105W0       101."0      50.90        05.90      11.90      I5010       165.1        050.90     MW."                   IN."        II5.
01
U totale Int rret 1t1U14u659. OOhl
01  Pr , 5r. 41.2                                              410         41.0        41.10       41.10       41.20      41.10       41.24       41.10       41.21       41.20                 20.0        201.00
if  SkceeuEu                                       U.2        31.30        10.L0       M.i         08.30       11.30      U. .0       11.30       11.30       U.30        11.20                 441.1       441.10
It "0Ihr                                          411.30      411.30      401.30      401I.       111.30      411.30      411.30     451.30      411.30      41.30       411.30                2600.5      2400.50
7
11 rltil terrnt Ill. 141111S  ro.l            1462934.10  115331.00  104211.44   1iWA2.U  114250.14  111107J.571  199112.01  191415.40  2U41N0.10  220034.0  21193,51.M4                      M    N57  11233195.11
1n  Prisrty                                    15705.00   912155.20   9m7172.00  91792.00   1127.0   91n3nn.u0  970911.0   917111112.4  970141."  10 ,1 12.0            0IL.0               4171fl0.40  4893736.00
13  Secoedty                                   320403.00   31145.31  415191.04   45909.5.1  4940U. 14   W1,04.11   WH5IC4.00   023574.00  U6046.90   1011    M254.44                      . 227002.01   307 .10
14 Mll5wer                                     51932.91  594920.30   214.30   214019.10   271 1.10   301293.10   345123.W   S13411.e1    02366. 4111 26.10   4615171                         1227190.3 20 1051.4
11
10 lln t41li1a tIanllrtnufltlEut Ibo. 00h0
17  Ptieuy                                        207.00      212.U0      211.17      225.32      231.1       238.51     245.50      22.62       259.94      21.411      211.24                1121.53     1200.10
II SncodAiry                                     5031.0      1170.00     1152.U      1111.94     12  19  I251.           1292.10    1329.5      1561.12     1407.10     14U.63                 5934.30    1140.21
I9  Hlqr                                        3U10.00     n920.e0     4013.81    4150.00      4211.03     4394.89    4522.34     4513.46     4711.44     4921.u      5070.15              2u77o.25    25m.11
01 hlo Capital tit. laliSlU  Apsl              07631.32   112113.00   174952.29   700165.51  160913.53  1"3107.17   9712264.9   91413X.6  1006111.11  144002.34  10562163                    4437111.1  ses7m222
U2 Priuwtyel                                    56000.e1   suoo.o0.00    50 1 .     00 504.0      900.00    1000.0.    0 1600.00         56000.00 s1.0                 so10.00                20210.1    200.0
0   Socoodarylanl                              4961.32    5953.0,11 s721191.61    01126.1   5`1291.01   01997.46   021194.44    39121.11  040114.11   670119.0         1154.41               2314 .10  32630.10
64 Hilagorlab.                                 121120.00   1604120.00   246054.41   249439.4    711910.2   569510.0   296414.251219209.50   2920914.o   30142.64   31U422.12                 127094.19.  1494092.71
05
80 Sc.kel Il4.1 e 5coult                        505135.0    58535.20     1531.10   52515.20    5031.2e   59535.20    5111.20    5131.20         615.10    585.20   50535A.1                   m650.40   M 1.
of tatil  CpItsal fpmilto1 734907.12  101014.0   933483.49    24001.75 91550.13  115109.7  I1IM.6"9  5033202.0  5007429.97  5090163.4  11141.4                                3              47241n.7  5349619.22
n  total SC.Capltal CEpitvr                    Isuil       uu1 4       0m.0    59s11.20    u1519.25   nu0 u 5         1.61  5         s204 9    n0. 5 .    137090.11  1391.1                 311349.0  3111116.31
O0 total CUc.lEgt4Iac.Ris.hm  A4f)            2111141-.2  2434023.u6  237782.9  2103319.37  kut760.51  2902112.03  "34. 49  3006207.49  3114590.17  321b17.14 33N149.63                     1310051.30 1s5 74.32
91  lecVtOilt                                   562914.50  51533539.00  114219.44  107n0s2.s1  1142250.U4  1111013.51  1     199112.61  5974945.0  2041750.90  1120031.3t 21593345.14         1595.5f 7 11231517510
92 Cait.l                                      734901.s2   910144.0   953403.49  024490.11   9150.73  1155099.07  1035171.19  1503202.09  5001429.911  5090M33.4  1114101.37.3               413n.9   14971.n
93 
94 total i.ti.* Do. [is *pi. 5lli5 l                      1451601.10  51455111.64  1533585.41  551130311.00  56833.05  1700151.11  1,14.11 10 250715.18  51314.40  15421043.00               1040974.51  19200190.51
95 PrilAu                                                  922155.20   973702.00   974192.00   913227.00  913139.00   91975.1.    917112.00  976147.20   9012.41  9,1015.00                  4175120.60  4019130.40
4  Socmdarp                                                293454.90   33292.04   34100.51   391550.00   4275.01   46520.00   4920.40   113290.50   50741.20   001513.00                     51112.17  206473.3
91 Hilgh                                                   152037.0   110142.0   590321.10   21201.10   2 0.4   2034.00   291117.U0  35034.0   3301.00   3.0                                  91n7045.40   5114142.20
961
I9 total Nuol.11p.l. ao.slillooSl                          915100.96   9385.53   1151404.30   900120.91 1200340.92  593808.19  509".9  1142591.41  1132312.14  12070.13              .       43301.39 SM7211.12
o00  Prisay                                                  5 0.0   s10.00    50.n    s100.00    1O00 0                   o40.0 4    14.00    500.40    s0.00    50.                         2M0."   21600.u0
105  fecoEar7                                               011011.04 I55174.00 3. 7    32.05   658457.55   f4442.64       9.14   7682.9   193560.91   151135.29   831591.25          ;        m03.5  39004.90
502  Hilter                                                 1II23."   2U000.So' 24902.10   252W4.42   30902.26   29290.1   26005.4   293050.10   3495.14   31041.02                           52105.2  1549,000.21
503
505 AM510 FIC68M tio 319. PiSiSsmi
led
560 ouoai,i,emi,inOi,i,iii,,,flhI,o,gi
51§
o KClIIS 35115  O   ICEtWIII 0C4(  iocr
109 .--- _ ........--
Il0 leitASEIEAC tIK  IL5 l1I total                           I1537.34   120999.53     96714.20  1515412.70   104151.94   171411.13   19294.2    2000.417  22423.40   243026.                  70270.6L  1099.49
Ill Pnilauy                                                  66321.00   11113.39    92004.61   9151.131 35   16321.     101440.05   554103.92   51966.    121712.30   132012.43               46751.12   605093.56
112 seiooErt                                                 2t341.42    34903.13   40495.00    4199.u4    12171.13  5F5H.4  0410               11209.15    1191.0    93813.1                 202071.52   2037.9
4l5  IIwrr                                                    4420.93      332.41     6114.20     m117.31     1721.90   5031.00    55913.49    13472.3    5S1I5.2   151090.95                   3201.51    114501.4
I51 l0IM   SIC.1160110 ES.F2M  3093                              0.0         0.e0        o.00      22.n      102.t1   50905.1    117U4.24    1201.42   I5S30.93    5450.71                      59290.11   02153.71
lit IY lKriiilf laill tOKkr stgu
Ill
1 lIIFFoRf tt tCnUl511l-tita5                                55453.12    40008.i    44253.30    47150.20   12533.44    56170.49    01067.95    05451.19      9M3.2    7W A.S                  21904.74   3224.05
11  fo g   Lds                                              1 1071.70    12348.64    13Z2L.12    54953.15    15117.03    17341.20    16042.42    19939.14    21214.34    22317.40             07417.66    99705.05       W
120  fw   r  Lii                                              6410.56     0913.03     7409n.20    1917.7n     935.21     9939.41    508.64    114.12    5273.90    122M.29                     Sl0.09   117541.99 
121  fo  SW Utrib                                            5504.9    53475.02   1S4.04    56353.50    1030.10    50912.54   20s31.50    21512.12 1375.3    245u6.2                            73141.90  511019.54 
122  for Lw  tialgbri                                         61.26       7210.20     715.0         4 34.52    15001.40    50375.0    1l51.4    5I .31.2    12732        340.00                 4405 111.0  1 2. 111
123
124 IKU*        PAWN  UftIlU                                 1409.53        1.10    73.02    m152            32  92.7   P15         064l.    502434.3s  502a.          11764.05                3491t9       159.0
I26 P08l  k wv kbgoto                                        26234.50    5$10..10 t  340.05    su03.44    146.37   414103.5    41044.70    51311.14    403L1  -  11   .I                        148.         01.9



In1 (11111111m1611001cA                                           301,31.     3214.00      3531.13     3044.43      4410.01      4643.00     49a1.10      1201.50     U40.00       5911.10107.0                        241311.5
132$
133 COST 31C3111v*t.a3                                          -14121.21   *1l116.40   -211291.03   -14494.61   -241175.14   -72344.13   -21311.43   -251111.91   -241141.12   -21462.53                 -31911.41  -126444.50
III #aiie  Pt Fee ItbidvIm                                       -2443.04    -214.135   -1212433    -3111,1        -3195.51    *4329.32    -4142.03    -5321.24    -5612.04    -0311.21                   -14433.?5   .26449.15
135 tit stMolt %ege sI? Bad
133   tomt  go   ee level                                      -33449.32   -14111.14   -33044.50   *3531.NA  -34143.31   *31531.04   -1580.43   -29143.12   -21100.45   *11324.21                         *1!443.33  -100435.56
133  si,uauitey     ee Iewt m [P.                               544431.34   41S171.44   434493.11.   444024.34   134040.11   581034.0   4123514.40  i444l4.90   1016415.50   151254.40                   2271021.31  3330511.10
140
III hiblolal of*lmnSew                                          113043.44   331129.9IS   3479110.31   111434.1?  1114113,34   101144.41   221151.43   345144.45    MO4M.2    2MITI.45                      33393.44  1213231.44
143 kImioM at I of 4nre.1,14.                                       31.01       51.48        32.19        SI.M        35.31        3.1.3       34.43         4.413      31.49        31.11                    33.19       31.05
34 ....... ....................................                                                                                                                                           -
Il 14(20  15V113i314k,m                                           9331.00    I31456.0     14242.00    W4U1.00    TOM5.6  13400.00    1400.00    IOW0.A                400.00       26(.00                  44451.00    4600.00
148
144 9   II3I61t01934(*ea                                         50412.32    41911.01    31150.40    38394.411   48021.21    4335.211   43191.10    43245.28    43221.23    45321.10                      219131.44   264430.241
134  51  sm       toll                                           24O1.9      21M2.41    14052.40       9301.21    2$529.41    114017.1      354613.20    35401.45    35601.41    33415.10                  91153.14    93149.44
131  513 kmees  ilt                                               4003.4i-0   6111.00      51446.40    31342.40     4241.20     4423.40      4561.00     41156.0      1,14.43      4534. 40                341331.4    34404.40
131  NIftS?  hmbe,raea                                           100'l.30    11337.40    35253.40      1 '43. 20    3344l.40f   3184.0    I31134. 00    TIMM I4 1116. 10    171199.0                       9(-235.46    590134.40
134 29'4111 SI2G   I5uPmllI-tetaI                                3314.00    34kk1.43    30049.03    43113.3        33011.31    34211.21    34111.41    54204.30    34001.33        W 3(.10                1111951.51   201109.??
133   %1 5iuuti IM4                                               9114.13     745.44       4411.13      3414.11     9433.60     1111.13      2003.10    4914.9        4914.95      1001.30                 35941.33    3493.2.5
334  145 klineotac1bs                                             919.3       9302.63      5931.00    11124. 91     413.11    I0511.31    10530.11    1055.11    10411.10    30415.30                      31233.53    11199.41
ISP  SAP hulb?v 9tI1142.1m                                                    1413.2       4341. 00    V312.20    30243.20       111.20      7438.00      7141.10     1411.20      1433.00                 3tfif. if    34110.40
151  SPA L,beiriis                                                4043.4      9434.001    4324.40    11104.40       480. 20    110,11.40    I0U.00    1043.00    30434.40    10954.401                     54411.40    541114.10W
141  lItilnl I.il.-haidial Cents                                     110         3420        2340         2030        320           M1            I            I           3            0                  1330.CO       330.00
141
143 C0Ot4I1l NI OF   (131 S 111   MA                            -3341.14    -2195.53    -4143.21    -4193.21    -4193.21    -4139.21    -4113.711   -4193.21    -4134.21    -4393.28                      -14113.32   -20,946.401
Ill
TO10      o 34141444   03 t ult.oo- C ome.tal-321.0.5    -13,19.5    -11019.1    -11412.13   -8311.04   -93351.30    -43441.45   -139121.33  -20150.421  -122444.14                                       422565.45  4-13054.4
Ml  ktaeos is1, I  fap.hEqip                                         3.44         1.11        2.37         3.40       -3.33        -0.37       -0.94        -3.93       -2.13        -3.31                     0.1         -1.44
115 tOtAL 3114(2 of 1K21Ol                                      1149331.94   139369.43   319009.43   332539.38   131038.15   104113.13   220599.15   232031.32   244929.11   243391.40                    113420.19  13234325.1
314
Il10111 R(01134  I0tA*t30  Ro0l                              1030122.3 la 0141324.44   919343.31  1105541.35  12403U40K   3242335.44  3321021.19  I33111.2713445173.44  1440442.01,                   14431S1.51  140114.20
I19 INA1(30 OF   I300SAS452 (  SIEC.  M I6(                         1I13         332         34.24        14.11       34.3         34.11       14.119       34.1        34.44        13.54                    34.30        1.1.3
III Il  S C.   IIC4T IG R 35     12113.36
362   34241 OF ACtION                                           31343   3356524.12  31331M.411  3210844.41  1441401.10  344143411.31  1142231.34  1411414.40  1140114.21  115103,9.41                    42229912.41  m9IN16"           4  ' 
554   '
I-l



74                            Appendix
Table 11
GOVERNMENT EDUCATION BUDGET GROWTH WITH AND WITHOUT ACTION PROGRAM
(1983/84-1993/94)
(Rp billion)
Annual
1983/84 /a      1993/94             growth
(Z)
I. Budget Without Program (Base)
A. Recurrent Budget
Primary                                    957            981               0.3
Secondary                                  326            751               8.7
Higher                                     180            462               9.9
Subtotal                               1,463          2.193               4.1
B. Capital Budget
Primary                                     56             56               0.0
Secondary                                  557            739               2.9
Higher                                     122            319               9.8
Subtotal                                 734          1.115               4.3
C. Total Education Budget                   2.198          3.308               4.2
II. Secondary Education Action Program Costs
A. Recurrent costs                              0            286 (382) Ic        -
- Base plus Action Program                 326 /b       1,037              12.3
B. Capital costs                                0            -25 (-32) /c        -'
- Base plus Action Program                 499 /b         715               3.7
III. Summary
A. Secondary Education Base Budget            825          1,490               6.1
without Action Program (I A 2 + I B 2)
B. Action Program (AP) Effects:
1. Full AP (incl. cost recovery)             0            261 (18Z) /c        -
Base budget + full AP                  825 /b       1,751                7.8
2. Partial %P (not incl. cost recov.)        0            397 (27%) Ic        -
Base Budget & Partial AP               825 /b       1,887                8.6
/a   Final year before Repelita IV.
/b   These figures do not include action program but are included as a base for
calculating growth rates when the action program is added for subsequent years.
/c   Percentages of Base Budget expenditures in 1993/94.
NB   Columns do not always sum exactly due to rounding.



- 75 -
Appendix
Table 11
Note to Appendix, Table 11
As Table 11 shows, the government secondary education budget will grow
during Repelita IV and V by an annual rate of 6.1%, without an action
program. The secondary recurrent budget will grow much faster than the capital
budget (8.7% vs. 2.9%). The growth in the recurrent budget assumes no change
in the amount of expenditures per student; it is simply -- forward extrapolation
driven by enrollment growth.
When the recurrent costs of the complete secondary action program are
included, they add another 38% to the recurrent cost of secondary education by
1993/94. When the existing secondary costs are combined with the action
program, this higher level of secondary costs would grow at 12.3% p.a. compared
to their growth rate of 8.7% without the action program.
On the capital budget side, the secondary action program actually
produces net savings on the currently planned level of expenditures. This is
because of the proposal to introduce a local contribution as a condition of
governmant help for building new (government) schools. By 1993/94 the savings
amount to Rp 25 billion or -3% of the projected budget without the action
program. Thus when recurrent and capital budgets are combined, the effect of
the whole action program is to increase the average annual growth rate of the
total secondary education budget from 6.1 to 7.8Z p.a. However, if the cost
recovery elements of the action program are not adopted, then, as the bottom of
Table 11 shows, the growth rate would be 8.6% p.a., an increase by half again
over the increase brought on by the full action program.



INDONESIA
Education Stiucture, 1964
Sho*1ng Wodd Bank Group Fnancial sultarnce to Date
t    2      3    A      S     6           7     S      9           10    11    12                     13   14   1S   16             1   16            19   20    2
l     i      -        ,                   1     -I     1    -      1      1    I           t-               I     I     I            I    I       
t    8      79  to    11   12            13   14    1              16    17   Is                     19   20   21   22               23   24           2S   2t   21
19"MIyUC ILnON                    L0W63N CCNIAY             Mt #NCtARX                                               HIGIE IOUCAIONI
IDUCADON                IOUCAWl
I   ~ i~ty Si (So.1-~)  g  S2(70,O Soton)        S3 (Ph 0)
L.J
loc~~~E
(,nhwmc Ewqwvotum
* ScM    Ii*ioIaW    s
Fh~~5 D
D~NVkx,Degocorlm*
90onLffmhcwbctxet   )                                                    |        POtocthc
AMt  o bY %kVnU DM*oe scS (AC
o*    Mo t MO_
v*aitIbW%DdW                                          L                 -ShO  I
* nltwlrvolDCI                                                                                                        A D-in
tec tt t  o^*SC@¢{ 9w1L  _                                                                                                     . _ 
0tW Sd   _  tO _  t 1 _  _   _  ~~~~~~~l tbtuto d lWe A&Wt"om (UWN) 
k                                         r   WcotamtTroCendn tt  $C|ow
1~~~AM                                                       L k                     .u2"  



INDONESIA
Enrollment Numbers and Repetition, Dropout,
Graduation Rates In Pimary Schools, 1970 and 1978/1S 79
Year              Grafe I                   Gaode 2                    Grodo 3                    Grods 4                    Grade 5                    Grods 6
6%/                        78/                       12Sa                      16%
1970             3                          2.926000                   2,06.0W                    2.074.0                   IA86                       1,0
19%                       14%                                 S                            S7% 14
A  6%              T%                                                   IOIL                        ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~7%
1978/1979         2L 7                    L                                                                                                                                 92%
197911980          6.8232
Key                Dropout
Sowce. Raangkurono Sfalisflk .'3reklohom. 1979/i9B0: BP3K (                                                                                                         Bori-25b



INDONESIA
Junilor Secondary School Net Progression Rates'
1971-1981/1982
GRADE
Yooi                                                                                                                                    Grodualos
1971
(51.6 (14).1
'97,                           (i8
Om(1               _                    85
197J                       Ie,Lli) ,                                4               Z 
i9pa                    Lt~(61156)                           86                                 76
1974 (1                                                             88                                 77                                  86
(697.712)                                                                                                   (362.670)
1916                   I~~~~LX.)                            89                                 80o.                                 68
(777112)                                                                                                     (3\0.973)
1976                          wt'                                   9                                  6)                                   7 1 
SCtZo               ~~~~~~~(#SMb 419)                                                                                            (45i.442.4 6)                                   Got
1977                          1 V                                  89                                 86                                   75
(91306.3)                                                                                                    (526.070)
1978                       (I.                                      9                                  6                                     so
(1.09.39.1)                                                                                                  (616.375)
1979)                        It00                                  92                                                                      7
(I I?.' 130)                                                                                                 (629.5W4)
WN)'                          I WX                                  95                                89                                   9
(1 5 I                                   95 )                                                                C 772.207)
.llWCIQ7)                            (9S.1                                                                         )
lItt$ (0 Calik)t{X1                          Ovt- J IIt m owm4 as  ti soWcld as                                                        1d Bor* -2#691



INDONESIA
Senior Secondary School Net Progression Rates'
1971-1981/1982
Yooi                           I                                    II                                III                              GfOdUO$,
1971                          0
(354.840)
1972                                                               85
(261.578)                                                      _
WM7                           100867
(262,21i7)
¶00                                                                                                          61
(287.076)                              87                                 79                                (173.315)
1975                          100                                  88                                  81                                   71
(330584)                                                                                                     (184\520)
t97  100                                                                84                                   72
i976                    (391 534)                                                                                                    (189.740)
100                                                                                                          77
(452138)                               91                                 87                                (221.791)
1978                          100                                                                     89                                   78
(524.634)                               92                                 89                               (257.676)
1979                         100                                   9894)87
(634 345)                                                                                                   (341829)
1980                          1W0                                   90                                92                                   84
(695.690)                                                                                                    (381.645)
100                                  95                                 90                                   86
(794 SS)                                                                                                     (451620)
Sauco rIangkurnan Slotislik Porsokobahon
Ralos are cajulauld on Sontor Socondaryr Gcade I enrollnt as Ihe bose.                                                             Wodd  enk-25692



- 80 -
Appendix
Figure 5
ACHIEVEMENT MEANS FOR STUDENTS, ACCORDING TO
THEIR ACCESS TO SCHOOL LIBRARY BOOKS, GRADE 9
210-
208-
z
g. ~ ~~~~ /
.1 /
170-,  
0  24          1 TO 4              <1
NUMBER OF STUDENTS PER LIBRARY BOOK



Appendix
Figure 6
STANDARDIZED TOTAL ACHIEVEMENT MEANS FOR STUDENTS IN ARTS AND
SCIENCE STREAMS BY NUMBER OF LIBRARY BOOKS IN SCHOOL, GRADE 12
- -ARTS STREM
- ---- SCIENCE STREAM
58-
at~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
<_~~~~~~~~~~~~~ .X                  p I 
NONE    UP TO S   S1-1ISO    51-2S8   251-35    351-460  OVM 45
NUMBER OF L IBRARY BOOKS



- 82 -
Appendix
Figure 7
SUBJECT ACHIEVEMENT SCORES FOR STUDENTS IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS,
BY ATTENDANCE OF TEACHERS AT IN-SERVICE TRAINING COURSES, GRADE 9
68*
mATTDEDCOM-SE AT LEAST OaC
Mz-iiNT A1oWED       .t
48-
co
w
28-
1~~SI 
U    R     T  R    U    R    U    R    U    R
MATH    SCIENCE    SOCIAL    BAHASA    ENGLISH
STUDIES   MDONESIA



- 83 -
Appendix
Figure 8
STANDARDIZED TOTAL ACHIVEMENT MEANS FOR STUDENTS
IN ARTS AND SCIENCE STREAMS, BY IN-SERVICE TRAINING
OF TEACHERS, GRADE 12.
58   -   ARTS STREAM
---- SCICE STREAM                         -
zi54                                          S- 
~52-
z                                      -
-z   .
ow
148
z
I'~~~~~~~~~~~~ 
tWER 2      2-3        4-5       0-7        A- A:L
IN to     IN is      IN is      IN-IS      IN 1e
PROPORTION OF TEACHERS WITH IN-SERVICE TRAINING



INDONESIA 1981/82
Representation Index
Urban/Rural Provinces
35                    ~~~~~~Mixed Enrollment in General Junior Secondary Schools (SMiP)
3
2.5am0    0
2~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~o
1.5~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~o
--  ~~~~~~~~    inininmm   .  -       -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~c
I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~e -
0.5                                         -           -             -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0
-   ~~~~~~~~~~~-   -~~~0                      0.0    .
-                           -w 000 O.   w0  ,
pq                     Ii)0  0   4o  oI           O 
%~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 0O000
q.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0



INDONESIA  1981/82
Repreaentation Index
Urban/Rural Provinces
B _                   Mixed 4nroll.ent in General Senior Secondary School. (SMA)
t A ^ u 0 s v ) t) W t t B 6 e ) 4 - M > g . v l i ii)\t W \ > j\ y S W   t s s 4 W 9 f i y > 4 6 \ t o ,
0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0
oe~
0JO000  0000                                         u     J