20869 RURAL DEVELOPMENT ]NOT]E : T H E W 0 R L D B A N K =_ No. 1 aF=1 Food Security and the Challenge to Agriculture in the 21st Century D espite improvements in income, social safety nets, and Given that food nceds in developing .IJD health, nutrition, and much more. Man-y approach this countries could nearly double in the next 30 or 40 years, the challenge to other factors imnportant to the complexity one elemnenit at a the global agricultural system is human condition, by the year time, perhaps focusing on food enormous. Food security, however, is 2025 as rnany as 1,000 million supplies, food demand, tech- about more than having adequate supplies of food -. every human people of a projected 8,000 nologies, or policies. No single should have continuing and affordable million could suffer from mal- approach, however, can ad- access to enough food to lead a normal, nutrition. Many advances have equately address the most healthiy, ard productivec life. Food security must first be considered at been made, but the challenge pressing issues facing the world the household level - does a family of providing food security for in the 21st certury - the levels generate sufficient income to acquire all remains massive and of economic and social devel- the food it needs? To meet this require- complex - an endeavor that opment that are necessary to can afford to buy food is paramount. involves production, trade, attain global food security. The challenge of reducing poverty is both national and international, and in the developing world it remains predominantly rural in nature. it is now generally accepted that food secturity has three components - -~availability access and effective use .~ of food to achieve nutritional security. Each is a necessary condition, but only t ariage of the three can assure food security for all. This Note discusses the challenge of global food security, first by reviewinig past performance, and then addressing the challenges of jjiqi> f S 5>' v f$s*> ¢b¶demand, supply, and access. Performance to Date Beoe projecting into the future for the next 25 to 30 years, it is worthwhile e to review how we ll we did during the 7 ~ past 30 years, during which world food needs doubled. we considcr food availability and access, and nutritional use. - ' _As wwL -Es ~ CJ||Availability. Despite periodic predictions Daily caloric intake has increased significantly during the last 30 years in Latin America. remarnabl wellgein 'ex inod Vegetables were abundant in this Guatemalan market. remarkably well in expandng food FROM THE RURAL DEVELOPMENT DEPArTMENT OF PHE ENVIRONMENTALLY AND SOCIALLY SUSTA NABLE DEVELOPMENT NIETORK I I production between 1960 and 1990. The Demand Challenge ecological modelers, are generally World cereal production more than in less than 10 months, wt' will enter much morc pessimistic. The most doubled, per capita food production the 21st century. By 2025, the world's extreme views combine resource increased 37 percent, daily caloric population will approach 8,000 constraints with pessimism about intake increased 35 percent, and real million people, an increase of 2,500 increasing biological yields and food prices fell by almost 50 percent. million from the 1990s. Nearly all of foresee serious problems ahead. Regionally average daily caloric this increase will be in developing intake per person increased signifi- countries. The increase in the number The vernature orojections ta cantly in the Middle East and North of people to feed is only part of the populatmon and incogm cow pared to Africa, East Asia, and Latin America challenge. As incomes grovw, so does ou ndinome ompared to levels of 2,700 calories per day or the demand for food. A modest growth compounding growth rates of yield higher. South Asia, where food in income could result in food needs means that food gaps grow rapidly if 1 1 11 . . ~~~~~~~the growsth rate of demand exceeds production grew more slowly, still nearly doubling in developing the growtb rate of dupply.exceeds suffered from significant undernu- countries during the next 30 to 40 the growth rate of supply. On the trition, and Sub-saharan Africa years. Furthermore, shifting popula- other hand, if supply growth rates . . . . . ~~~~~~~~~~~~exceed demand growth rates, food actually experienced a decline in per tion patterns mean that by 2025 the excee dand growth ras food capita food availability. Production urban population in developing predominal t outcome in the 20th increases came from three sources - countries will increase by about increasing biological yields, intensi- 2,000 million pcople. The combina- cave projected that by simu the global fying the use of land (for example, tion of population growth, rising cereal or food balances will increase irrigated acreage in developing incomes, and urbanization will by 1.5 to 1.7 percent per year, area countries doubled), and expanding significantly alter the composition vested will increase modestly, the area under cultivation. and characteristics of food demand. gar global grain demand. will grow more Access. Despite an overall effective Developments on the demand side slowly, and trade in grains will global performance, undernutrition raise fundamental questions on the increase. These stud-ies expect real remained a serious problem. During supply side. Can the world produce grain prices to remain constant or 1969 to 1971. 920 million people, enough food to feed 8,000 million decline. equivalent to 35 percent of the develop- people, and at the same time reduce ing world population, were under- the number of undernourished to nourished. in the 1990s, FAO estimated below the current level of 800 million?i that 840 million people, equivalent will we break away from the mind-set to 20 percent of the developing world of equating food security with population, were undernourished. national food self-sufficiency and There was progress in relative terms, instead ask where the food should be but in absolute terms the number of produced? can the food system of the undernourished people diminished future meet the challenge of processing, very little. in addition, regional distributing, and storing a nutritious performance varied widely. During food supply for hundreds of millions 1969 to 1971, 76 percent of the under- more people in the next century? nourished lived in Asia (51 percent in Finally, does the world have a trading East Asia) and 11 percent in Sub-Saharan system that will allow increasing Africa. During 1990 to 1992, 60 percent quantities of food to flow from surplus lived in Asia (30 percent in East Asia) to deficit areas? and 25 percent lived in sub-Saharan The Supply Challenge Africa. Views on the challenge of meeting Nutritional Use. Although firm data future food security diverge strongly are unavailable, it is likely that in the as the period of projection is length- 1960s over 1.000 million people ened. Those using economic projec- suffered from a deficiency in one or tions or simulation models, which more micronutrients tvitamin A, are based mainly on historical trends, iron, iodine, zinc, or copper). In the tend to project a sufficient global early 1990s, estimates are that 1,600 food supply until at least 2020. Those million people are at risk of iodine projecting on the basis of resource deficiency and about 2,000 million availability and environmental are affected by iron deficiency. constraints, who could be called __ There are contrary views presented too optimistic and the pessimists are will not do. The political and economic by other researchers, who argue that too pessimistic. Reality suggests that challenge can only be met if interna- there is only a small backlog of unused feeding 2,500 rnillion more people tional and domesti-c policies, institu- agricultural technology, fish produc- requires long-term growth in tional frameworks, and public tion has reacted its biological limits, agricultural output, which must come expenditure patterns are conducive and rangeland carrying capacity has primarily from rising biological to sustainable agricu-ltural development. been exceeded. They further argue that yields rather than from expanding T the demand for water is pressing its cultivated area or increased irrigation. hydrological limits, fertilizer respon- Why? Because most fertile land is Supply and demand are onLy part of siveness is declining, and much of the already under cultivation, and the the food security challenge. The third cropland (especially in China) is being really suitable and low-cost areas for challenge is access to food. Here the lost to degradation, urbanization, and irrigation have already been exploited. issue is clearly to reduce poverty. industrialization. The resulting conclu- Additionally, population growth and Seventy percent of the poor people in sion is very pessimistic, with greatlv urban expansion will lead urban and the developing world still live in expanded trade as the only possible industrial interests to compete for rural areas, so meeting this challenge solution, wv hich they also see as land and water. Therefore, doubling means improving the productivity and problematic. yields in complex farming systems profitability of milLions upon millions How can these economic optimists without damaging the environment of smnall farms. and ecological pessimists reach such is the long tcrm viable option - as wcll To meet this formidable challenge, different conclusions when projecting as an enormous challenge. farmers will need new and appropriate potential food supplies? Assuming This is a worldwide technological, technologies. The role of biotechnology that they generally agree on the dlemand political, and economic challenge. w^ill be critical if it can be applied to side scenario, the reasons can be We require new technology that the crops of complex farming systems found in the four critical projection allows development of new high- in the tropics and subtropics. As we parameters - yields, area harvested, yielding and environmentally sustain- break away from a heavt focus on intensification, and rcsource con- able production systems. More of the basic food crops -rice, wheat, maize- straints. Most likely, the optimists are same input-intensive monTocutiure to more diversified production systems involving all crops, animals, and trees, research ineeds are likely to be expansive. X 4ro' if the challenge of improving the i . . . . # , . -. + well-being of farmers can be met, w,Te then have the rationale to encourage farmners to be more effective stewards t1 | * \_ i of the world's naLtural resources. Virtually all of thec arable land anid most of the fresh water in the world is managed or used by farmers, which rural communities by improving the profitability of agriculture is a triple win situation. HLealthier rural communities reduce poverty, improve natural resource management, and improve food security. p Diverse foods were available in this Ghanaian market. Can the food system of the future meet the challenge of growing, processing, distnbuting, and storing a nutritious food supply for hundreds of millions more people in the next century? Surely these daunting challenges They must also be assured of access to Alexandratos, Nikos ied). 1995. must be taken seriously as we move reasonably stable markets. Therefore, WrorldAgriculture Towards 2010. Rome: into the 21st century. But we must ask the agricultural negotiations scheduled Food and Agriculture Organization. the question, can they really be met? for 1999-2000 should focus on reducing Brown, Lester R., and Hal Kane. 1994. On the production side, yes - but protection levels in OECD countries, Full House: Reassessing the Earth's there are four big 'ifs': which would improve access to Population Carrying Capacity. If we develop sustainable production markets for developing countries. Washington, D.C.: World Watch systems capable of doubling output. These developments will all help Fnstdtute. This requires attacks on all fronts - make the food supply available. On 199d Wrd Foodcummit. Technical ecology, soils, agronomy, breeding, the access side, clearly the challenge 1Backgrod Documents 1:h-5. farm management, pest management, is to improve education and rural roume F oc and many other disciplines. We well-being, as well as focus on policies Rome: FAO. cannot focus onlv on the yields of that will generate income for poor the Early Twenty- irs Cnt 1 1 ' , D ,, 1 1 1, r ~~~~~~~~~~~~Food in the Early Twenty-First Century: single commodities. It is an unprec- people, most of whom still live in edented challenge for agriculture and rural areas. This will require particular u biological science, particularly in attention to education (especially for IncreasingPopulation. Washington. D.C.: 1 1 1 . 1 1 1 1 1 . r ~~~~~~~~International Food Policy Research tropical and subtropical areas. women), health, anad infrastructure, Instituter'. If we implement domestic and and increaslng the productivity of Mitchell, Donald O., and Merlinda D. international policies and institutions g Ingco. 1993. "The World Food that do not discriminate against Further Reading outlook' Washington, D.C.: World agriculture, and provide appropriate Agcaoili, Mercedita, and Mark Bank (International Economics incentives to farmers around the world. Rosegrant. 1995. "Global and Departmenti. If we continue to invest in public Regional Food Supply. Demand, Rosegrant, Mark, M. Agcaoili-Sombilla, agricultural research throuh groups and Trade Prospects to 2010' In and N.D. Perez, 1995. "Global Food such as the CGIAR fot example -g and Nurul Islam (ed.), Population and Projections to 2020: Implications Food in the Early Twenty-First Century: for Investment, Food, Agriculture, private setrongr taptnersheps enor MeetingFuture Food Demand of an and the Environment' Discussion private sector to tap the enormous potentialIof modern molecular IncreasingPopulation. Washington. D.C.: Paper 5. Washington, D.C.: Interna- potential to benefitsmall-scaleand tinternational Food Policy Research tional Food Policy Research biology to benefit small-scale and IIttt.Isiue poor farmers around the world. Institute. Institute. Schiff, Maurice, and Alberto Valdes. if we stay the course in removing 1992. The Plundering ofAgriculture in obstacles to freer agricultural trade. DevelopingCountries. Washington, D.C.: The Marrakech Agreement of 1994 The World Bank. put agriculture under the rules of World Bank. 1997 "Rural Development: GATT/WTO for the first time. it From Vision to Action'.Environmentally requires tarification of all non-tariff and Socially Sustainable Development barriers, reduced domestic support, Studies andMonographs Series 12. reduced import barriers, and lower Washingtonr D.C. export subsidies. This levels the playing World Bank. 1996. "Food Security for field significantly for developing the world' statement prepared for countries, which must be able to use the 1996 World Food Summit world markets as they move away (Rural Development Department). from the notion of self sufficiency. Washington, D.C. This Note was written by Alexander McCalla, Director of Rural Development for the World Bank. The Rural Development Note series summarizes good practices and key findings about topics related to rural development. The ideas posed in this series do not necessarily reflect the policies of the World Bank. These Notes are distributed widely to Rural Family staff and are also available on the Rural Sector website (http://essd.worldbank.org/essd, then select Rural Development > Thematic Teams > Rural Strategy & Policy). If you are interested in writing a note, please email you idea to Nwanze Okidegbe (nokidegbe@worldbank.org). For additional copies, please contact Melissa Williams at (202) 458-7297. Edited by Seth Beckerman, design and layout by Condello Design, both of Pittsburgh, PA. Photographs by Curt Carnemark, World Bank. *_