Policy Research .PAPERS Population, Health, and Nutrition Population and Human Resources Department The World Bank November 1992 WPS 1016 Europe and Central Asia Region Middle East and North Africa Region Population Projections, 1992-93 Edition My T. Vu Eduard Bos and Ann Levin Currently, Asia has 59 percent of all people; Europe, 15 percent; America, 14 percent; Africa, 12 percent; and Oceania, 1 percent. Over time, Asia's share is projected to remain fairly stable, but Europe's share will almost be halved and Africa's share more than doubled. PelicyR Xrch Wodring Ppeasdisannte thefindmgsofwo m p and enoage the xchampeof ideas mmgBankstaff ono alloXsith rcsl,o in dvelop ilmhesepapes, diuted by fieResarch Adviswy Stafi, c nythenameof the uthoxs dlec ordy thdrviews, nd sboWdoolueadcuited accodngly.Thefindtginss intdot,nscanduchdesathestrhoneown.Teyshoudd no be atuhlcd to the Wodtd Bank, its Board of Dinctam its managaemn, or any of its menber comume Policy Resonrch Population, Health: and Nutrition WPS 1016 This paper - a product of the Population, Health, and Nutrition Division and the Population Policy Advisory Service of the Population and Human Resources Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to update demographic indicators on an annual basis. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433. Please contact Otilia Nadora, room S6-065, extension 31091 (November 1992). Population projections for aU countries are regions have moderate fertility of three to five prepared annuaUly by the Bank's Population and children per woman, although both continents Human Resources Department. They are pub- contain countries with very high and very low lished first in summary form in the Bank's World levels. More developed countries have the lowest Development Report and later in greater detail as fertility, with rates generaUy ranging between 2.5 technical notes or working paners and, in alter- and 1.5, but one of the former Soviet republics, nate years, as a book. Tajikistan, has a total fertility rate of 5. Separate papers cover the six Bank rtxgions: * Europe (including the former Soviet repub- (1) Africa (Sub-Saharan), (2) Latin America and lics) is the only continent where aggregate the Caribbean (and North America), (3) East fertility is currently below replacement - that is, Asia and Pacific region and South Asia region where women are not having enough children to combined, and (4) Europe and Central Asia replace themselves. Recent trends in some region and Middle East and North Africa region countries of Europe show small increases in combined. fertility, and the projections assume that the total fertility rate will recover to replacement level by This year's projections contain two major 2030. Europe is also the continent with the most changes from the previous edition. First, pm- homogeneous fertility levels: with the exception jected mortality from AIDS has been incorpo- of four of the former Soviet republics that have rated into the tables for Sub-Saharan African total fertility rates above 3, fertility in the other countries. Second, demographic estimates and 41 countries varies in a narrow range between projections are provided separately for each of 1.5 and 2.8. the fifteen countries that constituted the former Soviet Union. * The Northem American region has the highest aggregate life expectancy, 76.7. The Among trends observed: European region has the second highest aggre- gate life expectancy, 74.4. Every country in this - The total fertility rate for the world is an region is above the world's average of 66. estimated 3.2 children per woman in 1992. The Moving from west to east thmugh this region, highest total fertility rates are found in East and life expectancies tend to decline, from a high of West Africa, where the rate is above 6. Most 78 in Iceland to a low of 66 in Turkrenistan. countries in the Asian and Latin American The Policy Research NVorking PaperSeriesdisseminates thefmdings of work under way in theBank. Anobjectiveofthe series is to get these fndings out quickly, even if presentations are less than fully polished. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in these papers do not necessarily represent official Bank policy. Produced by the Policy Research Dissemination Center Europe and Central Asia Region Middle East and North Africa Region Population Projections 1992-93 Edition MyT. Vu Eduard Bos Ann Levin CONTENTS Forew ord ........................ . ill Detild Popuadon Proje ions ............. 1 Acknowledgements ....................... v Workl Reions, and Income Groups ......... 1 Introduction .......................... vii World ........................... 2 LDC ........................... 4 Overview of Trends and Projections ....... viii MDC ........................ 5 World and Regions .................. viii Population Growth . .......... viii Geographic Regions Fertility ........... xii M ortalit ........ xiii Africa ............................. 8 Mgration ......g. xiv Ea stA frica ........................ 10 Age Structure ........ West Africa ....................... 12 World Bank Regions and Income Groups .. xv North Africa .14 Some Country Results ....... ........ xii America ........................ 16 Summary Tables ..................... xxv Latin America and the Caribbean ....... 18 Northern America ................... 20 Special Topic 1: Projecting AIDS Mortality v. Iv Epidemiological Model ................lv Asia ........................ 22 Simulations ........iii East and Southeast Asia .............. 24 Application to SubSharan Countries ..... . South Asia .............As i a.26 Conclusions ........................ bd Southwest Asia ..................... 28 References ........................ bx Europe and Former Soviet Republics ..... 30 Special Topic n: Demographic Trends in the Republics of the Former U.S.S.R.....b Oceania .................32 References ................... bov Income Groups Data and Methods ................... lnvi Sources of Population Data .......... bv . Low-income Economis .34 Lower-middle-income Economies .36 References .c......... sCiv Upper-middle-income Economies ........ 38 High-income economies .40 Addendum ..... xcv Nonreporting Nonmember Economies . 42 I~~~~~~~ Europe and Central Asia Region ...... 45 Iraq ............... 118 Ireland ............... 120 Europe and Central Asia . ........ 46 Israel ............... 122 Country Department I . ......... 48 Italy ............... 124 Country Department II . ......... 50 Jordan East Bank ............... 126 Country Department III . ........ 52 Kazakhstan ............... 128 European Community . ....... 54 Kuwait ............... 130 Kyrgyzsan ........... .... 132 Middle East and North Africa Region .. 57 Latvia ............... 134 Lebanon ............... 136 Middle East and North Africa ....... 58 Libya ............... 138 Country Department I . ......... 60 Lithuania ............... 140 Country Department II . ......... 62 Luxembourg ............... 142 Nonborrowers . ............ 64 Malta ............... 144 Moldova ............... 146 Countries, Economies, Morocco...M o.148 and Territories . ............ 67 Netherlands ............... 150 Norway ........ ....... 152 Albania . ............ 68 Oman ............... 154 Algeria . ............ 70 Other Europe ............... 156 Armenia . ............ 72 Other North Africa ............. 158 Austria . ............ 74 Poland ............... 160 Azerbaijan . ............ 76 Portugal ............... 162 Bahrain . ............ 78 Qatar ............... 164 Belarus . ............ 80 Romania ............... 166 Belgium . ............ 82 Russian Federation .............. 168 Bulgaria . ............ 84 Saudi Arabia ............... 170 Channel Islands . ............ 86 Slovenia ............... 172 Croatia . ............ 88 Spain ............... 174 Cyprus . ............ 90 Sweden ............... 176 Czechoslovakia . ............ 9 2 Switzerland ............... 178 Denmark . ............ 94 Syrian Arab Rep ............... 180 Egypt . ............ 96 Tajikistan ............... 182 Estonia . ............ 98 Tunisia ............... 184 Finland . ............ 100 Turkey ............... 186 France . ............ 102 Turkmenistan ............... 188 Gaza Strip . ............ 104 Ukraine ............... 190 Georgia . ............ 106 United Arab Emirates ........... 192 Germany . ............ 108 United Kingdom ............... 194 Greece . ............ 110 Uzbekistan ............... 196 Hungary . ............ 112 West Bank ............... 198 Iceland . ............ 114 Yemen, Rep. of ............... 200 Iran, Islamic Rep. of . ......... 116 Yugoslavia ............... 202 ii FOREWORD Population projections for all countries are prepared annually by the Population and Human Resources Department of the World Bank. They are published ifirst in summary form in the Bank's World Development Report and later in greater detail as technical notes or working papers and, in alternate years, as a book. Four separate working papers cover the six Bank regions: Africa (Sub-Saharan), Latin America and the Caribbean (and Northern America), East Asia and Pacific region and South Asia region combined, and Europe and Central Asia region and Middle East and North Africa region combined. This year's projections contain two major changes from the previous edition. First, projected mortality from AIDS has been incorporated in the tables for Sub-Saharan African countries. Second, demographic estimates and projections are provided separately for each of the fifteen countries that constituted the Soviet Union. We intend these papers to provide convenient and up-to-date references on the likely demographic future of each country. We hope it will facilitate the process of taking population into account in development work. Thomas W. Merrick Senior Population Adviser Population and Human Resources Department ill ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS A number of persons provided us with Important information for this work or assisted us In preparing It In other ways. The Estimates and Projetions Section of the U.N. Population Division has been continually suppordve In providing us with data, even before their publication as UN. assessments. Partly as a result, nonessendal differences between these projections and the blennial U.N. assessments have been minimized. We are grateful to the section chlef, Larry Helichman, and to his continually accommodating staff, as well as to the head of the division, Shunichi Inoue, and hope that the collaboration will continue. World Bank country economists, population specialists, and the few demographers in the operating divisions have also provided us with recent population estimates, bringing to our attention government reports we might not otherwise see. This exercise was carried out using a personal computer program, ProjPC-II, written by Kenneth Hill of Johns Hopkins University. This work for this paper was started as part of the Population, Health, and Nutrition Division's work program. The paper was completed as a product of the Population Policy and Advisory Servce of the Population and Human Resources DepartMenL We are grateful to the division chief, Dr. Anthony R. Measham, and the department director, Ann 0. Hamilton, for their support of this work. We also wish to acknowledge the interest of the Bank's International Economics Socioeconomic Data Division (IECSE), which not only utilizes our flgures--for such important Bank purposes as estimating per capita GNP-and incorporates them into the databases it maintains and publications It distributes but also helps coordinate communications with country economists. Sulekha Patel and Taranjit Kaur of that division have been particubrly helpful in the past year. v INTRODUCTION This paper provides populatinn projections for each country, economy, or territory in the World Bank Europe and Central Asia and Middle East and North Africa Regions, as well as for nonborrower countries in the same geographic area. Three companion papers provide similar projections for the other Bank regions. Each paper also contains projections for the world and for groups of countries for all regions and income groups. The introduction section (similar across the four regional papers) summarizes the main demographic trends and the projection results, discusses the projection methodology, and lists the sources of current population estimates and vital rates. These projections update those issued in 1991 as the 1990-91 Edition. This edition returns to the format of earlier editions, showing detailed age-sex distributions from 1985 onwards. This year's projections differ in two important ways from those issued previously. First, mortality from AIDS has been incorporated in countries in Sub-Saharan Africa where there is a measurable level of HIV infection, and has affected the projected population growth in these countries and for Africa as a whole. The procedures for projecting HIV and AIDS and a discussion of the impact of AIDS mortality on demographic indicators are presented as Special Topic I following the introduction. Second, as a result of recent political changes in some parts of the world, estimates and projections for several new countries have been added. These new projections cover the fifteen countries that constituted the Soviet Union (see Special Topic II below), the combined Germanies and Yemens, and the former Yugoslavian republics of Slovenia and Croatia. The cut-off date for revisions for this edition was April 15, 1992, so that political developments that occurred after that date could not be incorporated. TheAddendum section following the Sources discusses some of these late developments. Because of changes within the World Bank organizational structure, population projections of regional and country department aggregates are not comparable to those ef previous years . New geographical regions have been formed and many of the country d1e"artments have changed their composition, partly as a result of the addition of many new borrower countries. For example, Asia has now been split into two separate regions, East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia, each of which has three country departments, rather than the five previous departments under one region. Country departments in the Africa and Latin America regions, while keeping the same name, have also been restructured. Projection methods have changed only marginally since the previous edition. Essentially, recent country-specific data about levels and trends in fertility, mortality, and international migration are applied to available sex-age distributions in order to obtain short-run projections. Long-run projections, up to 2150, are made under the assumptions that fertility and mortality eventually become stable and net international migration declines to zero. One change in procedures from the previous edition involves a more gradual decline in the total fertility rate during the first period that fertility is projected to decline, followed by a more rapid decline than was previously assumed. This and other details of the methodology are described in the Data and Methods section. Caution is appropriate with all projections like these. They essentially involve working out the implications of assumptions about demographic trends. None of the results should be interpreted as indicating certitude about the future. Instead, they should be read with the universal qualifier that population will follow the indicated path if the assumptions prove to be correct. Viii INTRODUCTION OVVEWW OF TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS In the following sections, recent demographic trends and projections for the future will be discussed. Overall trends for the world, geographical regions and countries grouped by Income level will be reviewed first, followed by a presentation o; 'me notable country results. Rapid demographic changes are taking pbace in some parts of the world, while In other parts demographic change is more gradual. Over the past few decades, Southeast Asian and Latin American countries have experienced rapid declines in mortality and fertility, while most Sub-Saharan African and Middle Eastern countries have seen only minor changes, with both mortality and fertility remaining at high levels. The more developed countries of Europe, North America, and Asia are currently also among the gradual changers, having lowered their mortality and fertility earlier. In many of these countries, fertility fluctuates in a narrow range below replacement -- below the level required for each generation to replace itself in the succeeding generation -- and mortality at most ages has reached levels so low that further declines can only be small. The different regional trends, and their Implications for future demographic Indicators, wiUl now be discussed in greater detail. World and Regions Population Growth 'Te world population for mid-1992 is estimated to be 5.44 billion, an increase of 180 million over the population in mid-1990. By 2000, it is projected to increase to 6.17 billion, an increase of 12 percent over the 1992 estimate, and by 2025 world population is projected to reach &34 billion, an increase of 52 percent over this years population. During 1990 to 1995, population growth rates average 1.7 percent per year, and are projected to decline to 1.2 percent around 2010 and 1.0 percent by 2025. However, the number of persons added each year will still be growing between 1990 and 1995 and is projected to stabilize at just below 90 million. Only after 2025 is the annual increase in population projected to start declining substantially (Figure 1). This com-' ation of declining growth rates with steady increases in population is the result of past high fertility rates, which produced ever- larger cohorts that are now moving through the age-structure, replacing smaller cohorts born earlier. Even though the number of births worldwide is increasing well below overall growth rates, the populaton momentum built into the age structure will ensure high population growth for decades to come. In 1992, less developed countries (LDCs) comprise 77 percent of the population, while more developed countries (MDCs) cover the other 23 percenL Since annual growth rates are significantly higher in LDCs, 2.0 percent compared to 0.6 percent for MDCs in 1992, the share of the world population from LDCs is projected to increase. By the beginning of the next century, it will increase to 79 percent, and will reach 83 percent by 2025. Long-run trends, up to 2150, are constructed by gradually bringing fertility and mortality in harmony, i.e., by setting fertility at a level where each woman replaces herself under projected mortality conditions, and by assuming net international migration to be zero. The result of these assumptions is that the population gradually becomes stationary, with a fixed age structure that is independent of its current age structure and a growth rate of zero. The "ultimate' size of such stationary populations is of interest because it demonstrates the momentum built into populations by current fertility and mortality conditions. The size of the stadonary population of the world is projected as 12.2 billion, of which 88 percent would live in countries currently defined as less developed. INTRODUCTION IX Figure 1. Increase in Population Average annual increase (millions) By S5-year period By 25-year period iw I I 1990f 2000.0 0.5 2115 220 2057 ao210s2 Figure 2. Comparison of Projections 1990-91 Edition and 1992-93 Edition 00 11o == = MDC, 19091 1" v MDC, 1992-93 8WD ,./ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~LDC, 1990-91 t i ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~LDC, 1992-93 240- o o *2b i 2140 2000 2040 2060 2120 2140 Yer X INTRODUCTION How do the projections for the world and for LDCs and MDCs compare wit'h those previously produced? Figure 2 compares this year's projections with the previous set (190 '91). For MDCs, there is no distinguishable difference between the projected populations. In the case of the LDCs projections, this year's projection is, from the early part of the 21st century onward, Increasingly below the previous projection. This reflects the impact ot AIDS, which increases the number o; deaths and reduces the number of births. For the world as a whole, the projections differ to the same extent as the LDC projections differ. When growth rates for major world regions are compared, striking differences become apparent. The contir ent with v- , highest growth rate is Africa with an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the early 1990s, about six times the 0.5 percent annual growth rate of Europe (which Includes the former U.S.S.R. countries). Growth rates in the Americas, in Asia, and in Oceania are intermediate; at 1.5, 1.8, and 1.6 percent, respectively, they are close to the world's average. At these growth rates, the population of Africa would double irn approximately 25 years, while Europe would double in 140 years. One of the consequences of such large differences in population growth rates is a changing distribution of the population over the continents. Currently, Asia has 59 percent of all people; Europe, 15 percent; America, 14 percent, Africa, 12 percent, and Oceania, 1 percent. Over time, Asia's share is projected to remain fairly stable, but Europe's share will almost be halved and Africa's share more than doubled. Figure 3 shows the distribution of the world's population at three different points in time. Because Asia is so large and diverse, disaggregation of its populations by subregions is more illustrative of the differences in population growth rates. South Asia, which has 1.24 billion people (23 percent of the world population), has an estimated growth rate of 2.0 percent in 1992, while East and Southeast Asia, which include China and contains 1.85 billion people (34 percent of the world population), had a lower rate of 1.4 percent. South Asia is growing annually by 25 milion, East and Southeast Asia by 27 million persons. By 2025, the growth rates are projected to decline to 1.1 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively. Even with these lower rates, 23 million people will be added in South Asia each year and 17 million in East and Southeast Asia because of their large projected base populations of 2.05 billion and 2.54 billion. Southwest Asia, which consists mostly of Middle Eastern countries, has a much smaller number of people, 143 million, but is growing at a faster rate than the other two regions, with a growth rate of 2.9 percent in 1992. It is projected to lower its growth rate to 1.6 percent by 2025, but will by then have more than doubled its population to 293 million. In Africa, more homogeneity is found among the East, West, and North subregions. The fastest growing subregion is East Africa with a growth rate of 3.0 percent in 1992, followed by West Africa with a growth rate of 2.9 percent. North Africa, has begun to lower its growth rate but stil has a growth rate of 2.5 percent, which is projected to diminish to 1.3 percent by 2025. Even though East Africa's growth rate is projected to start declining immediately, by 2025 it will still have a growth rate of 1.9 percent, and will add 14 million persons a year. In West Africa, the growth rate is projected to decrease to 1.7 percent in 2025, but will still be adding 9 million persons each year. These differences in growth rates are the outcome of assumed trends in fert.iity and mortality (discussed below). Oceania has a growth rate of 1.6 percent in 1992 and is projected to lower its rate to 0.6 percent by 2025. Because of its small population (0.5 percent of the world's total) its impact on world demographic trends is trivial. INTRODUCTION Xi Figure 3. Percentage Distribution of World Population by Continent, 1990, 2025, and 2100 1990 O: Fli rop (I A(L171L9 2025 Europe (la.7) Af (17.6) 2100 oceaia(&'(0) Afia(39) As. (5 Xli INTRODUCTnON America is divided into two subregions, North America and Latin America and the Caribbean. In North America, the growth rate Is relatively low, 0.9 percent in 1992, and Is projected to decline to 0.3 percent by 2025, as net migration from Latin America is assumed to diminish. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the growth rate in 1992 was signiflcantly higher, 1.8 percent, and is projected to aiecline to 0.9 pe.ent by 2025. The lowest growth rate for any continent, .5 percent in 1992, is found in the region comprised of Europe and the former Soviet Republics. This rate is projected to decline further to .2 percent by 2025. Tables 1 and 2 summarize current and projected trends in population growth. Fetility The total fertility rate (TFR) for the world is estimated to be 3.2 children per woman in 1992. The highest TFRs are found in East and West Africa, where the TFR is above 6. Most countries in the Asian and Latia American regions have moderate fertility of three to five children per woman, although both continents contain countries with very high and very low levels. MDCs have the lowest fertility, with rates generally ranging between 2.5 and 1.5, but one of the former Soviet Republics, Tajikistan, has a TFR of 5. World fertility is projected to decline from 3.2 now to 2.9 by the turn of the century and to 2.4 by 2025. These projected trends in fertility are determined from past trends and general assumptions as described in Data and Metods. For countries with high fertility, the trend is assumed to be downward, and substantial fertility decline is projected. Countries that have reached below replacement level fertility are assumed to gradualy raise their TFRs to replacement. In East and West Africa, recent trends in fertilty are downwards, but only slightly so. Between 1985 and 1992, the TFR has declined from 6.4 to 6.2 in these regions that together constitute Sub-Saharan Africa. Only a few countries have shown sustained decline in fertility, while the majority of countries have had persisted high fertility, with the highest TFRs at levels above 7 children per woman in such countries as Malawi, Niger, Rwanda, and Uganda. In some countries (such as Cameroon and Angola), fertility has been increasing as sterility rates declined. On the basis of these levels and trends, fertility decline is projected to be slow in the 1990s as well, with replacement fertility in most countries not reached until after 2040. North Africa. on the other hand, has had a substantial decline in the past decade, from 5.6 to 4.6 children per woman, and four out of the seven countries in this region are projected to achieve replacement fertility by 2020. In Asia, most countries have begun the transition from high to low fertility, with many declines starting before and during the 1970s. In East and Southeast Asia, fertiiity has already reached a low level of 2.5 children per woman. South Asia, at 4.1 children per woman, has progressed less far in this process, and Southwest Asia has still further to go. However, each subregion of the Asian continent includes countries at different stages of the fertility transition; each subregion has at least one country with a TFR of 6 or greater and oae country with replacement level fertility. The projections of when replacement fertility will be reached are determined by the trends in individual countries with the slowest decline; the Asian subregion aggregates will therefore be late in achieving this. On the American continent, fertility in all countries has dropped to below 6 children per woman, but some countries have gone much further than others. The TFR for Latin America is intermediate at 3.1, and replacement fertility is projected to be reached in every country no later than INTRODUCTION Xlii 2035. In Northern America, fertility is at 2 children per woman, I.e., just below replacement level. Europe (including the former U.S.S.R. republics) is the only continent where aggregate fertility is currently below replacement, i.e., where women are not having enough children to replace themselves. Recent trends in some countries of Europe show small increases in fertility, and the projections assume that the TFR will recover to replacement level by 2030. Europe is also the continent with the most hti,ogeneous fertility levels: with the exception of four of the former Soviet republics that have TFRs above 3, fertility in the other 41 countries varies in a narrow range between 1.5 and 2.& Another measure sometimes used to examine fertility trends is the crude birth rate, a rate that is not adjusted for the age structure of the population. The 1992 crude birth rate for the world as a whole is 25.7 births per thousand population and is pro;ected to decline to 22.2 by the turn of the century, and decline further to 17.8 by 2025. In MDCs, the 1992 crude birth rate is 14.3 while the rate in LDCS is 29.0. Crude birth rates are projected to decrease to 18.6 in LDCs and to 12.2 in MDCs by 2025. MortaUlity Mortality levels in all continents have decreased in the past decade, continuing a long-term trend towards longer life. Life expectancy at birth, a measure constructed from current age-specific mortality rates applied to a cohort born this year, is estimated at 66 years for the world in 1992, with male levels at 64.5 years and female levels at 67.0 years. Life expectancy is 12 years lower in LDCs than in MDCs. Projected mortality trends for individual countries are based on current levels and recent trends, with faster increases in life expectancy projected in countries with lower life expectancies and those with rapid recent in,'reases (see Data and Medhods). Life expectancy is projected to reach 70 years for the world as a whole in approximately 2010. However, difftrences between regions are expected to remain important, and even incrcase in some cases. Sub-Saharan Africa is only projected to reach a life expectancy of 60 years by 2020, and South Asia is not projected to reach 70 years until approximately 2025. On the other hand, more developed regions, are projected to attain life expectancies of 80 years around 2015. On the African continent, the lowest regional life expectancies are found in East and West Africa where combined (male and female) life exeancy at birth is only 52 and 50 years, respectively. Since the 1970s, iife expectancy in East and West Africa has increased by about 6 years. Further increases are expected because of continued progress in socioeconomic development and health interventions; however, in East Africa especially, overal life expectancy will increase only gradually because of increasing mortality from AIDS. In some countries where the HIV/AIDS epidemic has spread widely, such as Uganda, Malawi, and Zambia, projections indicate a reversal of recent gains in life expectancy (see Special Topic I). North Africa has considerably better mortality conditions, with combined life expectancy of just over 60. South Asia has the worst mortality conditions of the Asian subregions, but improvement has been quite rapid since the mid 1970s, with life expectancy increasing from 49 to 59 years currently. Life expectancy in Southwest Asia is near the world's average, while East and Southeast Asia is well- above that at 70 years. East and Southeast Asia contains some of the countries (Japan, Hong Kong) with the highest measured life expectancies in the world. The American continent contains the Northern America region which has the highest aggregate life expectancy, 76.7. In Latin America and the Canbbean, life expectancy is slightly above the world's average. XIV INTRODUCTION The European region has the second highest aggregate life expectancy, 74.4. Every oountry in this region is above the world's average. Moving from west to east through this region, iime expectancies tend to decline, from a high of 78 in Iceland to a low of 66 in Turkmenistan. Female life expectancy at birth is higher than male life expectancy at birth in all regions in the world, with the exception of the South Asia region, where males and females have the same life expectancy. In some countries in South Asia, such as Nepal and Bhutan, males have higher life expectancies. The largest gaps between males and females are found in some of the former Soviet republics, where females have an advantage of over 10 years (see Special Topic 11). The variations in the sex difference .. life expectancy can often be explained by different life styles, health conditions, and cultural practices. In South Asia, for example, preferential treatment of boys and high maternal mortality rates are important reasons for reduced female life expectancy, whereas alcohol abuse and smoking reduces male life expectancy In parts of Europe. Other indicators of mortality included in the detailed country projections are the infant mortality rate (IMR), the under-five mortality rate (q5), life expectancy at age 1S, and the crude death rate (CDR). The first three are strongly correlated with life expectancy at birth; the CDR is affected by the age structure of a population and is therefore a much poorer indicator of mortality conditions. Table 3 summarizes vital rates for geographic regions for the current and two future periods. Migration At the regional level, international net migration has a trivial effect on population growth. The most significant flow occurs between Latin America and the Caribbean and Northern America, which amounts to just over one-half million persons per year. Migration often occurs for unpredictable reasons, and is often reversed in a short time period; the projections of future net migration assume a gradual decline to zero from current levels. Age Structure The age structure of a population gives information about the size of the school-age population, labor force size, and age-dependency, among others. It is also a very powerful indicator of future population growth potential. The percentage of the world's population under the age of fifteen is estimated to be 32 percent in 1992, or approximately one in three persons. This proportion is projected to decrease slightly to 31 percent by the turn of the century, and to decline further to 25 percent in 2025 as fertility rates decrease. The trend for the proportion of persons sixty-five years of age or older, on the other hand, is rising in all regions of the world as the result of lower fertility and lower mortality rates at older ages. This proportion is estimated to be 6 percent in 1992, and will increase to 7 percent by the year 2000, and to 10 percent by 2025. The distribution of persons by age is very different in LDCs and MDCs. In LDCs, 36 percent of the population is under the age of 15, whereas this is only 22 percent in MDCs. By 2025, however, these differences are projected to become smaller as fertility in LDCs is reduced further. At that time, the percentage of the population under the age of 15 is estimated to decline to 27 percent in LDCs and to 18 percent in MDCs. The proportion of persons aged 65 and over, on the other hand, will be rising, particularly in MDCs. The percentage of this age-group in 1992 in MDCs is estimated to be 12 percent, is INTRODUCTION XV projected to rise to 14 percent by the year 2000, and rise to 20 percent by 2025. In LDCs, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over is only 4 percent in 1992, 5 percent in 2000, and 8 percent in 2025. The under age 15 and 65 years and over population as a ratio of those in the working ages between 15 and 65 years is called the dependency ratio. This measure indicates how many persons, on average, are dependent per 100 persons of working age. Table 4 shows these three broad age groups for the regions of the world. The dependency ratio is currently highest in Africa, at 92, and lowest in Europe, at 52. Over time, however, dependency in Africa will decrease as fertility declines, whereas it wiUl increase in Europe as the population grows older. World Bank Regions and Income Groups The World Bank divides borrower countries into six regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and Pacific, South Asia, Europe and Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Within regions, countries are grouped in two to six country departments. In addition, the Bank also assigns each country to one of four income groups. Box I shows the countries grouped by income, Box 2, by country department. This section wiUl discuss the population growth, fertility and mortality rates of Bank regions, country departments, and income groups. The largest region is East Asia and Pacific which currently has 30 pe. snt of the world's population. It is foHowed by South Asia with 21 percent, Africa with 10 percent, europe and Central Asia with 9 percent, Latin America and the Caribbean with 8 percent, and M.ddle East and North Africa with 5 percent Table 6 shows projections for the six regions and their departments. Figure 5 shows population growth rates for aU Bank departments. As the Bank regions resemble geographic regions or subregions, the discussion will focus on Bank departments. The growth rates of the country departments reflect those of the regions as a whole, but there is some variation. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the rates range from 3.2 percent to 2.8 percent, with the highest rates found in the Eastern African department and the lowest rates found in the Sahelian and Southern African departments. Another region that has similarly high growth rates is the Middle East and North Africa. The growth rate is higher in the Country Department II, 3.0 percent, which includes the Middle Eastern countries, than the Country Department I, of North African countries, 2.7 percent, where the fertility transition is further along. More diversity is found among the Asian country departments. In South Asia, the growth rates for the three departments range from 2.0 percent to 2.6 percent. The growth rates of the three East Asian and Pacific Country Departments are lower and range from 1.9 percent to 1.4 percent. Latin America and the Caribbean region is similar to the East Asian and Pacific region in that growth rates are moderately high with a range from 2.1 percent to 1.4 percent, with the highest rates found in Country Departments I and IL The European and Central Asian country departments include Eastern European, Baltic countries, CI.S. countries, and a few Asian countries and have the lowest growth rates of any of the regions. Country Department I, which includes some Central Asian countries and some Eastern European countries, has a growth rate of 1.3 percent, and the other two departments made up of Eastern European and former Soviet republics have rates of only .4 percent and .8 percent. XVi INTRODUCTION Figure 4. World Bank Regions 'IRD 24229 S..~~~~~~~~~e00-. 0SUB-SAH-ARAN AFRICA WORLD BANK REGIONS (~) LAC (Including North America) (a) SOUTH ASLA ( EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC (5) EUROPE and CENTRAL ASIA ({) NORTH AFRICA and MIDDLE EAST OCTOBER 992 INTRODUCTION XVII Flgure S. Population Growth Rate, 1990-95, by Country Department ftgure 6. Total Fertilit,s Rate, 19%90 9, by Counbtr Department Figure 7. lAfe ExpecXncy at Bklh, J"1-99s, by Coutgh Department 70 o- 20- 10 I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~kJA1A P xviii INRoDucTION Box 1 Countries and Economies Classified by Income Group Burtmdl Bent n ~~~~~~~~~"Afghanistan Etioi CetrlAfican" Re. ..uta.. Keny ehad Ini * Natawi Ghana ~~~~~~~~~~~Pakistan Tnatia Mai...tonCmtodi laSo Taioilme and Princp Egypt ~~~~~~~~~logo Oceania Sudan ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Solomoh: Ilatnads tatin Ameri'ca- and th C aribbean . Laeer-eIWe incdome (5611.39 EatAfrc `tatsin Americ an-hAaibe. ~~sst*a- Botawana Arge~~ntio Gaa ti Warnbis lhl yrian Arab Rep. Swazfland . Colarbia ~~~~~~Turkey Zitabwe C~~~~~~~~~osta Rica . Met Baink . est Af.c... Dmiic..e M ot. Rader East-and outeat si Caparoon . .. EL S~~~~~~~amvador Nalays ~~ People's Rep. at the G ~~~~uateml.Phi..i.i.. Panma ceani a N rtAfria:. ~ Pa:gayFj Tulista . . . Sc. Vincent and the~~O Grndie PapUsle Gie Other North Africa r Tonms n .0 ~ . .. etI' ao INTRODUCTION xK (based on GNP per capita in 1990 U.S. dollars) EtOt Africa Latin ~~~~~Ameic ad W theCarbba Soutwet 4 -_Asal . Y. . ... ... . .Ant igus andBiud . G a..:X- : 0 : : bon N tserrat- t -:....................-- . .:Korea, Rep,- of . .- .: . -Other est -Africa:a.: .: .:0 Other Latin bAmerica MaIcao - :St. Kdtts and 8e:is ..:: Norwth Africa . . .: ...Suri . nam .og -ed States of Ub?e Trinidad and RtcronAesia EuroS Venezueta Other I'otynesir Czechoslovakia~~~~~~~~~~~~w:-. .-: ..... .iugt ....... - , i Greece South Asia~~~~~~~~~~~~~Eiit '''66t s Iftmgary iran~~~~~~~ Islamic Rep. ofep~'O . IM .n . ($7,650 or; more.) - : : .::.East Africa.::.....:::;::.. - Northern A ria .Eas : .ft adSoutheast Asia-. :l Othe.r . .ohEast Attica C.nad -Br......ei..a.. -' P41ghz Ta bean~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 , Cyina ; haryel snatn Americi an th Caribbean fleWar6k Bahama65Therceani tinan 0udIteA stralia s" zranc Noetherand Ant lies, Frenc' Aosyesi ..:..- :.:.: . '.. > : V. rgiln Ilands (U.. jGUS tt .:: -:i Vtt.: .:'.~ ?ew ''Z..:eal. :.:,-.''.:.'-.:..::''.'..:':'::pand Ireland S~~~~~~~~~-Uhthed Stsia OtITOC EtW*pr 9ahra!it . .~~~~~~~W 9ap 0 i i i i ? i - .:, i . : j; ~~~~j CS [o; _o _ ; Italy Cyprustati '.. . ......i s . . ... * ' ~~~. . t:. .......... '.- 2 . :.. ........:- ,;ht? ' ,' : ''' '.' . : Mother lands ~~~~Icimit -*:-No :..E.: .rway Dater A........................................... rapib: 0.E: *'.i Unte '-',' ,at:'::::: Switzerland~~ .... . .... . ...... ... ... ........ ... ... .. .. ...... :AD 40 .94 0 .3 .90 a x z to 3- N. 70 41 z As I) 0 V Of VIM f. ::  w Q., I .. : -M 4WAA. 'O; A-Sk-B. ....... ...... . ... .. ... ....... .. .. . .... ..... ... X-7 ................. . ................ . ... ....... .. .. ......... ....... ..... INTRODUCTION xxi by World Bank Region and Cowuny Deportment'1 ~~41f n Palfe_ s n ~~~~~~~~~~~Pps10* -unaKra flee SeS'te'. SSSSSSR S S. o i ....f . -R i... . %: ........ bO.W ISI;' mlidif: ..,.,.. ,..a. : R . , h: . , ,. Cedol ....Nstri ...... ..... -Z :ea:'........ ,, ,andS.: . ::.-:': :,itr flpatun _ . . . . ' " . .:roes -hn -obraan 0rw P.^' :t' eS; f .......................................................- "4not AUs' ' ia:'''::: Si:"gaoReS ' ':RR" '''<''0 * 0Sr _ t _7__;t _ .<,,.-.~ge Nwp id .e.t.a 2si ta cow.tr ,.e..atS,:' t ': ::S:S:,y . : e , ,,,,,n ," '' ' ro R f Nutar LL~t C.p .-.:.'atovak$. Pf=ugtu ay *o l .o :,d : the.fa:S R T1 I OSolAp& U1,%ey XXii INTRODUCTION Figure 6 compares TFRs for all country departments. For the Africa region, there is more variation in fertility among the departments than for population growth: TMRs range from 5.6 in the Southern Africa Department (AF6) to 6.9 in the Eastern Africa Department (AF2). In both the Middle East and North Africa and South Asia regions, the fertility rates are medium high -- at 5.5 to 3.7, they are below those of the Africa departments, but above those of all other departments. Tbe departments In the East Asia and Pacific and Latin America and Caribbean regions have fertilty rates that are medium-low: at 3.4 to 2.4 children per woman, they are less than 1.5 to 0.5 children above replacement fertility. Replacement fertility in most countries that constitute these departments is projected to be achieved in the next 10 to 20 years. The Europe and Central Asia departments are very close to replacement fertility, and some countries in this region have dipped below net reproduction rates of 1, which, if sustained, would lead tc declining populations in the long run. Figure 7 compares life expectancies at birth across country departments, and presents an almost reversed ordering of the departments in Figure 6. For the departments of Sub-Saharan Africa, the combined male-female life expectancies are in just above 50 years, the exception being Sahelian Africa (AF5) with a life expectancy of 48 years. In South Asia, the life expectancies are slightly higher, ranging from 52 to 60 years. In the North Africa and Middle East, East Asia and Pacific, and Ladn America and Caribbean departments, the life expectancies are all in the 60-70 years range. Four departments have life expectancies just above 70 years, two of which are in Europe and Central Asia (EC2 and EC3), one In Latin America and the Caribbean (LA4), and one in East Asia and Pacific (EA2). The income groups, of which there are four, are less distinct demographically than the regional grouping. The low-income group (per capita income in 1990 of $610 or less), contains 50 countries that are mostly from Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, with a few countries from Latin America. These countries comprise 58 percent of the world population and have the highest fertility and mortality rates. They include some of the largest countries such as China and India. The 57 lower-middle income countries (per capita income between $611 and $2400) have 11 percent of the world population, and include many countries from Latin America, some from all of the other developing areas, as well as some Eastern European countries. The upper-middle income countries (per capita income between $2400 and $7650) have only have 10 percent of the world population. Most of the 33 countries that make up this group are from Eastern European and Middle Eastern oil-producing countries. Population growth rates and fertility vary widely within this group, but life expectancies are considerably higher than for the lower-middle and lower income groups. The 42 high income countries have per capita income greater than $7650, and have 16 percent of the world's population. They are chiefly the more developed countries from North America and Europe and have the lowest fertility and mortality rates, with the exception of Kuwait which has a TFR of 3.4 children per woman. The difference in population growth between the low- and middle- income groups is not as large as may be expected. The reason for this is the inclusion of China and India, which both have moderate growth rates, in the low income group. As the overall growth rate is an average of country growth rates weighted by population size, China and India depress the low-income growth rate. Without China and India, the low income countries would have the highest growth rate (2.5 percent per year). Projections for these income groups do not take into account that some countries are likely to move from one income group to another over time. INTRODUClnON xXiii Some Country Results Individual country projections provide sharper contrasts than aggregate geographic, Bank region, or income group projections, which, by combining several count.4es, smooth unique patterns. In this section, results will be discussed for a few large countries, because of their importance in determining the world's demographic situation, and for several smaller countries with striking demographic features. The most populous country in the world is China with a population of 1.2 billion. Its population growth rate, 1.5 percent in the early 1990s, is low for a low-income country, and is due to the low level of fertility that has been achieved over the last two decades. From 1970 to 1985, the TFR declined from 5.8 to 2.5, where it has stalled in the past few years. At the same time, life expectancy increased from 61 to 70 years, well-above the current average of 59 years for other low- income countries. Because of its sizeable lead in population over the second largest country, and because of the momentum built into the age structure, China is projected the remain the most populous country until 2120. India, the second most populous country, has an estimated population of 883 million in 1992. Because of its higher TFR, it is growing faster than China -- 2.0 percent per year -- despite higher mortality. The population of India is projected to surpass the 1 billion mark in the year 2000, and to surpass China in total population by 2120. Tme United States is, following the breakup of the U.S.S.R., the third most populous country. Its demographic characteristics are those of a typical MDC, with below-replacement fertility, high life eectancy, and an age pyramid that appears increasingly rectangular. The U.S. is atypical in that its growth rate is relatively high as the result of net migration: 25 percent of the United States' annual growth of 0.9 percent is due to immigration. In absolute numbers, the U.S. is by far the largest recipient of immigrants, with an annual Immigration surplus of about 600,000 during the early 1990s. AU of the regions have positive growth rates, but a few countries are in fact losing people. These countries are In one of two regions: in Latin America i"d the Caribbean, where several small island countries (Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis) -. acently had negative growth rates, and in Europe (Bulgaria, Hungary, and Ireland). In the case of the Canbbean islands, the cause of population decline is outmigration, whereas in Eastern Europe it results from a combination of below replacement fertility and outmigration. By 2025, a dozen countries in the MDC group are projected to have declining populations, including several large countries (Japan, Germany, and Italy). Even though fertility is assumed to recover to replacement by 2030, the effect of 'negative momentum' built into the age structures of these countries is to maintain negative growth rates for several decades. The highest growth rates are found in countries which have a large number of immigrants relative to their existing populations. The highest annual growth rates in the early 1990s are for Israel (4.8 percent), Jordan (4.8 percent), Oman (4.0 percent) and Saudi Arabia (3.7 percent). However, some other countries attain comparable growth rates through the excess of births over deaths without immigration: Rwanda (3.9 percent), Kenya (3.5 percent) and Swaziland (3.5 percent). The lowest TFR in the early 1990s is in Italy (1.32 children per woman). Several other Mediterranean countries are similarly low: Spain (1.46), Greece (1.52), and Portugal (1.57). While these countries once lagged the rest of Europe in the fertility transition, they have continued fertility decline to below levels observed in the countries of Northern and Western Europe, some of which (Sweden, Denmark) have had recent slight increases in their TFR. XXIV INrROQUCflON Six African countries and one countty in Asia have TFR of 7 chldren or more per woman. The highest is Rwanda (83), followed by Yemen (7.7), Malawi (7.6), and Ethiopia (7.5). Countries with such high fertility are expected to eventually follow the pattern of countres such as Kenya and Zimbabwe, which pieviously had very high ferlty and have started the transition from high to low fertility in the 1980s. But some countries with medium-high and high fertility (Mozambique, Tanzania, Niger, among others) are experiencing increases in the TFR as a result of declining prevalence of some sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). STDs cause secondary infertility, which depresses the number of children born to women. Ufe expectancy is highest in Japan (79 years, average of male and female life expectancies). This is just more than twice the lffe expectancy of Guinea-Bisau, which, with 39 years, has the lowest life expectancy of all countries in the world. Age-specdfic mortality rates, the components from which life expectancy is constructed, show even greater disparities: an infant in Japan has a chance of 5 per 1000 of dying in its first year, whereas this is 30 times higher in Guinea-BlssaiL In several Sub- Saharan countries, the probability that a child will not Ive to age S iS one in four, In the countries with the best mor ality conditions, this is only one in 150 children. The following set of tables provides additional detail of current estimates and projections of population growth and vital rates Tables 1 to 5 show demographic indicators for the world, less developed and more developed regions, and geographic regions. Tables 6 to 9 show indicators for the Bank's regions and country departments. Tables 10 to 15 show summary demographic indicators extracted from the main tables to faciltate comparsons among countriae Table 16 shows the populations of smali countries that constitute the 'othee groupings INTROIDUCTION >OCV Table 1. Population and Percentage Distribution by Geographic R-gion, 1985-2100 Populatfon (miltions) Percentage of world population Region 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 1985 1990 2000 2025 2t;0 2100 World 4827 5268 6168 8345 10055 11652 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Less Developed (a) 3650 4053 4886 6944 8623 10200 75.6 76.9 79.2 83.2 85.8 87.5 More Developed (a) 1177 1214 1282 1401 1433 1452 24.4 23.1 20.8 16.8 14.2 12.5 A'rica 542 627 831 1467 2079 2784 11.2 11.9 13.5 17.6 20.7 23.9 East Africa 233 272 367 684 1006 1399 4.8 5.2 6.0 8.2 10.0 12.0 West Africa 185 21S 287 515 730 978 3.8 4.1 4.7 6.2 7.3 8.4 North Africa 124 140 177 268 343 40b 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.5 America 667 721 830 1061 1201 1285 13.8 13.7 13.5 12.7 11.9 11.0 Latin America and Carib. 399 441 524 709 839 916 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.3 7.9 Northern America 268 280 306 352 362 369 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.2 3.6 3.2 Asia 2823 3103 3650 4885 5811 6596 58.5 58.9 59.2 58.5 57.8 56.6 East and Southeast Asia 1653 1788 2044 2546 2840 3013 34.2 33.9 33.1 30.5 28.2 25.9 South Asia 1055 1182 1432 2046 2570 3076 21.9 22.4 23.2 24.5 25.6 26.4 Southwest Asia 115 133 174 293 401 507 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.4 Europe and former U.S.S.R. 770 790 825 894 922 941 15.9 15.0 13.4 10.7 9.2 8.1 Oceania 25 27 31 39 43 45 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 a. "More developed comprises Europe, the former U.S.S.R., Northern America (the United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Less developed' comprises the rest of the world. Table 2. Annual Populaton Increase and Growth Rate by Geographic Region, 1985-2100 Annual population increase (mfilions) Annual growth rate (percent) 1985-90 1990-95 2000-05 2025-50 2050-75 2075-2100 1985-90 1990-95 2000-05 2025-50 2050-75 2075-2100 World 88.2 90.6 88.8 68.4 41.5 22.4 1.75 1.65 1.39 0.75 0.39 0.20 Less Developed (a) 80.6 83.6 82.7 67.1 41.3 21.8 2.10 1.96 1.62 0.87 0.45 0.22 More Developed (a) 7.4 7.0 6.1 1.3 0.2 0.6 0.62 0.57 0.47 0.09 0.01 0.04 Africa 17.0 19.3 23.5 24.5 18.4 9.8 2.93 2.87 2.64 1.39 0.80 0.37 East Africa 7.8 8.9 11.2 12.9 10.2 5.6 3.09 3.04 2.83 1.55 0.90 0.42 West Africa 6.0 6.7 8.5 8.6 6.9 3.4 2.95 2.91 2.77 1.39 0.80 0.37 North Africa 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.0 1.8 0.8 2.53 2.45 2.02 0.99 0.49 0.20 merica 10.7 11.2 9.9 5.6 2.4 1.0 1.54 1.49 1.16 0.49 0.19 0.08 Latin America and Carib. 8.3 8.5 7.7 5.2 2.2 0.9 1.97 1.84 1.42 0.67 0.25 0.10 Northern Amsrica 2.4 2.7 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.89 0.94 0.70 0.12 0.04 0.03 Asia 56.0 56.0 51.7 37.1 20.3 11.1 1.89 1.73 1.37 0.69 0.33 0.17 East and Southeast Asia 27.0 26.8 22.1 11.8 4.4 2.5 1.57 1.44 1.05 0.44 0.15 0.08 South Asia 25.4 25.2 25.1 21.0 13.0 7.3 2.27 2.02 1.68 0.91 0.47 0.24 Southwest Asia 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.3 2.9 1.3 2.78 2.87 2.41 1.26 0.67 0.27 Europe and former U.S.S.R. 4.1 3.6 3.4 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.53 0.45 0.41 0.12 0.03 0.05 Oceania 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.64 1.57 1.19 0.39 0.14 0.08 a. "more devetoped comprises Europe, the former U.S.S.R., Northern America (the United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, mid Japan. "Less developedc comprises the rest of the world. x x 0 Table 3. Fertility and Mortality Rates by Geographic Region, 1990-95, 2000-05. and 2025-30 5 1990-95 2000-05 2025-30 2 Region CBR TFR CDR e(0) INR C8R TFR CDR eCO) INR CBR TFR CDR e(O) IMR Wortd 25.7 3.23 9.2 66.0 63 22.2 2.87 8.2 68.5 50 17.2 2.36 7.7 74.0 24 Less Developed (a) 29.0 3.59 9.2 63.2 70 24.5 3.07 8.1 66.1 56 18.2 2.41 7.3 72.5 27 Nore Developed (a) 14.3 1.95 9.1 75.5 12 13.2 1.96 8.8 77.8 9 12.2 2.06 10.0 81.6 4 Africa 42.5 5.85 13.8 53.6 98 38.3 5.11 11.9 56.0 80 25.2 2.97 7.9 64.0 50 East Africa 45.2 6.30 14.8 52.3 104 41.4 5.70 13.1 53.7 87 27.5 3.27 8.3 62.2 55 best Africa 44.4 6.16 15.2 50.5 104 40.5 5.38 12.8 53.6 83 25.5 2.92 8.3 62.2 53 North Africa 34.3 4.55 9.6 60.8 70 28.0 3.54 7.8 64.6 51 18.8 2.31 6.4 72.1 22 America 21.9 2.70 7.3 71.6 36 17.8 2.29 6.5 74.2 25 14.2 2.08 7.3 79.1 7 Latin America and Carih. 26.0 3.12 6.6 68.4 46 20.4 2.42 5.8 71.6 32 15.1 2.09 6.4 77.5 8 Northern America 15.4 1.99 8.3 76.7 9 13.4 2.01 7.9 78.8 7 12.3 2.06 9.1 82.3 3 Asia 25.9 3.16 8.5 65.1 63 21.3 2.69 7.5 68.2 48 16.4 2.25 7.4 74.7 18 East and Southeast Asia 21.6 2.49 7.0 69.5 34 17.3 2.18 6.7 72.2 23 14.1 2.09 7.6 78.0 8 South Asia 31.1 4.13 10.7 58.7 93 25.8 3.26 8.9 62.5 71 18.5 2.37 7.4 70.8 28 Southwest Asia 35.4 4.75 7.9 65.3 62 30.4 4.01 6.3 68.8 46 20.8 2.60 5.3 74.9 19 Europe and former U.S.S.R. 14.4 1.99 9.8 74.4 15 13.4 1.98 9.3 76.9 11 12.4 2.06 10.0 81.0 4 Oceania 19.3 2.45 7.8 72.9 24 17.1 2.31 7.4 74.9 16 13.9 2.10 8.1 79.1 12 Note: Crude birth rates (CBR) and crude death rates (CMR) are per 1,000 population; total fertility rates (TFR) are per woman 15-49 years of age; life expectancies at birth, e(O), is given in years; and infant mortality rates (INR) are per 1,000 live births. INTRODUCTION XXVii Table 4. Population (millions) Age 0414, 15-64, and 65 and over by Geographic Region Year and Less More Europe, Oceanfa Age group World developed developed Africa America Asia former USSR 1990 0-14 1708 1446 261 282 '19 1026 173 7 15-66 3231 2427 804 326 448 1922 519 17 65+ 329 180 149 19 54 155 98 2 2000 0-14 1913 1653 260 365 232 1139 170 8 15-64 3830 2989 641 461 533 2299 537 20 65+ 425 243 182 25 65 212 119 3 2025 0-14 2097 1841 256 516 230 1176 166 8 15-64 5405 4546 859 894 692 3243 551 25 65+ 844 557 287 56 139 466 177 6 Note: "More developed comprises Europe, the former U.S.S.R., Northern America (the United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Less developed" comprises the rest of the world. Table 5. Longrun and Staionawy Populahon, Momenftum Doubling Year, and Year when Net Rpoduction reached I by Geographic Rion Population (millions) Stationary Year populatfon when over poputa- Statfo- 1990 Population tion 1990 2050 2100 nary population monentum doubles NRR=1 World 5268 10055 11652 12186 2.3 1.4 2059 2060 Less Developed (a) 4053 8623 10200 10715 2.6 1.5 2040 2060 Nore Developed (a) 1214 1433 1452 1471 1.2 1.1 (b) 2030 Africf 627 2079 2784 3028 4.8 1.5 2017 2055 East Africa 272 1006 1399 1498 5.5 1.5 2015 2055 West Africa 215 730 978 1105 5.1 1.5 2016 2055 North Africa 140 343 408 425 3.0 1.6 2029 2050 America 721 1201 1285 1311 1.8 1.4 (b) 2035 Latin America and Carib. 441 839 916 938 2.1 1.5 2067 2035 Northern America 280 362 369 373 1.3 1.1 (b) 2030 Asia 3103 5811 6596 6846 2.2 1.4 2068 2060 East and Southeast Asia 1788 2840 3013 3086 1.7 1.4 (b) 2040 South Asia 1182 2570 3076 3232 2.7 1.5 2040 2060 Southwest Asia 133 401 507 528 4.0 1.6 2019 2055 Europe and former U.S.S.R. 790 922 941 955 1.2 1.1 (b) 2030 Oceania 27 43 45 46 1.7 1.3 (b) 2035 a. "More developed comprises Europe, the former U.S.S.R., Northern America (the United States and Canada), Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "Less developed" comprises the rest of the world. b. Populatfon will not double with projected rates. XXViII INTRODUCTION Table 6. Population and Percentage Divtributon by World Bank Region, County Department, and Income Group, 1985-2100 Population (mitlions) Percentage of world population Region and Country Department 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 1985 1990 2000 2025 2050 2100 Africa Region 440 512 687 1254 1810 2472 9.1 9.7 11.1 15.0 18.0 21.2 1 Occidental and Central 38 45 60 110 156 208 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2 Eastern 107 126 173 340 515 733 2.2 2.4 2.8 4.1 5.1 6.3 3 South-Central and Indian Ocean 62 73 98 181 260 356 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.1 4 Western 103 119 158 268 362 465 2.1 2.3 2.6 3.2 3.6 4.0 5 Sahelian 36 41 56 111 171 248 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 6 Southern 94 108 142 246 344 461 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.9 3.4 4.0 East Asia and Pacific Region 1488 1619 1868 2366 2669 2847 30.8 30.7 30.3 28.3 26.5 24.4 1 Southeast 270 299 356 480 567 622 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.3 2 China and Mongolia 1050 1136 1296 1601 1769 1860 21.8 21.6 21.0 19.2 17.6 16.0 3 Indonesia and Pacific 168 184 216 285 333 364 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 South Asia Region 1009 1126 1353 1879 2281 2616 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.5 22.7 22.4 1 Other South 113 127 154 215 261 302 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2 India 765 850 1006 1348 1599 1790 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.1 15.9 15.4 3 Sou',west 130 150 193 316 421 523 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.8 4.2 4.5 Middle East and North Africa Region 207 240 319 567 834 1144 4.3 4.6 5.2 6.8 8.3 9.8 1 North Africa 55 63 82 127 165 195 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 2 Middle East 152 177 238 460 669 948 3.1 3.4 3.9 5.3 6.7 8.1 Europe and Central Asia Region 453 473 510 596 654 694 9.4 9.0 8.3 7.1 6.5 6.0 1 Southern Europe 93 99 112 138 157 168 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 2 Other Europe 83 85 88 97 102 107 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 3 C.I.S. and Baltic Republics 278 289 310 361 395 419 5.8 5.5 5.0 4.3 3.9 3.6 LAC Region 388 429 511 694 823 900 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.2 7.7 1 Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela 172 192 229 308 360 391 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 2 Central America 104 115 140 199 242 267 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 3 Caribbean and other 54 59 70 94 112 124 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 4 Tempec.ate 58 63 72 94 109 118 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 Income group Low 2743 3039 3642 5107 6268 7358 56.8 57.7 59.1 61.2 62.3 63.2 Lower-middle 520 576 695 999 1249 1462 10.8 10.9 11.3 12.0 12.4 12.5 Upper-middle 454 503 607 890 1155 1432 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.7 11.5 12.3 High 796 822 869 936 930 921 16.5 15.6 14.1 11.2 9.' 7.9 Nonreporting nonmember 314 328 354 414 452 479 6.5 6.2 5.7 5.0 4.5 4.1 Note: Country Department names are suggestive of coumtries included, but not always exact. World Bank regions and country departments are defined in Box 2. Income groups are defined In Box 1. INTRODUCTnON xxbi Table 7. Annual Populaton Increase and Growth Rate by World Bank Reg.on, Countly Deparnmen4 and Income Group, 1985-2100 Populatfon (millions) Average annual growth rate Region and 1985- 1990- 2000- 2025- 2050- 2075- 1985- 1990- 2000- 2025- 2050- 2075- Country Department 1990 1995 2005 2050 2075 2100 1990 1995 2005 2050 2075 2100 Africa Region 14.3 16.5 20.6 22.2 17.2 9.3 3.02 2.98 2.79 1.47 0.85 0.39 1 OccIdental and Central 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.4 0.7 3.23 3.06 2.87 1.39 0.81 0.34 2 Eastern 3.7 4.4 5.7 7.0 5.6 3.1 3.16 3.20 3.05 1.67 0.96 0.45 3 South-Central and Indian Ocean 2.1 2.4 3.0 3.2 2.5 1.4 3.12 3.09 2.84 1.46 0.86 0.40 4 Western 3.2 3.7 5.4 3.8 2.7 1.4 2.93 2.88 2.60 1.21 0.69 0.31 5 Sahelfan 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.4 1.9 1.1 2.79 2.88 3.07 1.75 1.00 0.49 6 Southern 2.9 3.2 3.8 4.0 3.1 1.6 2.88 2.77 2.52 1.37 0.81 0.36 East Asia and Pacific Region 26.1 26.0 21.5 12.1 4.7 2.4 1.70 1.56 1.13 0.48 0.17 0.09 1 Southeast 5.7 5.8 5.3 3.5 1.5 0.7 2.06 1.89 1.47 0.67 0.26 0.11 2 China and Mongolia 17.2 16.9 13.3 6.7 2.3 1.3 1.57 1.44 1.00 0.40 0.13 0.07 3 Indonesfa arnd Pacffic 3.2 3.3 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.4 1.80 1.70 1.32 0.62 0.24 0.12 South Asia Regifn 23.5 23.0 22.5 16.1 8.8 4.6 2.21 1.95 1.59 0.77 0.37 0.18 I Other South 2.7 2.7 2.7 1.8 1.0 0.6 2.26 2.05 1.69 0.77 0.37 0.22 2 Indfa 16.9 16.1 15.0 10.0 5.1 2.6 2.09 1.81 1.44 0.68 0.31 0.15 3 Southwest 3.9 4.2 4.7 4.2 2.7 1.4 2.82 2.64 2.30 1.14 0.60 0.27 Middle East and North Africa Regfon 6.7 7.6 8.8 10.7 8.0 4.4 3.00 2.94 2.59 1.55 0.86 0.41 1 North Africa 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 2.64 2.69 2.17 1.05 0.50 0.18 2 Middle East 5.1 5.8 7.0 9.2 7.1 4.1 3.13 3.03 2.73 1.68 0.94 0.45 Europe and Central Asia Region 4.0 3.7 3.8 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.86 0.76 0.72 0.37 0.16 0.07 1 Southern Europe 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.33 1.26 1.03 0.50 0.19 0.08 2 Other Europe 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.45 0.36 0.44 0.22 0.10 0.07 3 C.I.S. and Baltic Reptblics 2.3 2.1 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.83 0.71 0.69 0.36 0.17 0.07 LAC Region 8.1 8.4 7.6 5.1 2.2 0.9 1.99 1.86 1.43 0.68 0.26 0.10 1 Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela 3.9 3.9 3.3 2.1 0.9 0.4 2.15 1.92 1.39 0.63 0.24 0.10 2 Central America 2.2 2.5 2.4 1.7 0.7 0.3 2.05 2.08 1.64 0.79 0.29 0.10 3 Caribbean and other 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 1.85 1.73 1.40 0.69 0.28 0.13 4 Teperate 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.58 1.43 1.18 0.60 0.24 0.09 Incom group Low 59.2 60.7 59.5 46.4 28.3 15.2 2.05 1.90 1.57 0.82 0.43 0.21 Lower-mddle 11.2 11.8 12.3 10.0 5.8 2.7 2.04 1.95 1.70 0.89 0.44 0.19 Upper-middle 9.7 10.1 10.6 10.6 7.1 4.0 2.04 1.96 1.67 1.05 0.57 0.29 High 5.2 5.1 3.8 -0.2 -0.5 0.2 0.64 0.61 0.44 -0.02 -0.06 0.02 Nonreporting nomiember 2.8 2.6 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.87 0.77 0.73 0.35 0.16 0.07 Note: World Bank regions and country departments are defined in Box 2. Iocome groups are defined in Box 1. Table 8. Fertility and Mortality Rates by World Bank Region, Couwry Department, and Income Group, 1985-90. 2000-05, and 2025-30 x x x 1990-95 2000-05 2025-30 z 4 Region and Country Department CBR TFR CDR e(O) IMR CBR TFR CDR e(O) IMR CBR TFR CDR e(O) IMR 0 0 Africa Region 44.6 6.23 14.8 51.8 104 40.6 5.52 12.8 54.1 84 26.0 3.03 8.2 62.5 53 z 1 Occidental and Central 43.7 6.26 13.9 53.2 100 40.6 5.53 12.2 54.8 79 24.9 2.87 7.7 63.6 47 2 Eastern 47.7 6.90 15.6 51.0 109 43.9 6.21 13.3 53.0 89 29.1 3.48 8.1 61.8 57 3 South-Central and Indian Ocean 46.4 6.50 15.5 50.4 104 41.8 5.80 13.4 52.4 82 26.3 3.05 8.4 61.4 51 4 Western 42.6 5.91 13.9 52.3 95 37.2 4.84 11.3 55.9 73 21.3 2.39 7.8 64.1 45 5 Sahelian 47.3 6.68 17.7 47.8 125 46.2 6.54 15.1 50.8 104 30.7 3.67 8.9 59.8 65 6 Southern 41.5 5.56 13.8 54.1 99 38.0 5.05 12.8 55.2 85 25.6 3.04 8.6 62.9 54 East Asia and Pacific Region 22.6 2.57 6.9 68.9 33 17.8 2.22 6.5 71.9 22 14.3 2.09 7.3 77.9 7 1 Southeast 26.1 3.08 7.2 66.0 41 20.9 2.49 6.2 69.5 27 15.5 2.11 6.5 76.1 11 2 China and Mongolia 21.1 2.38 6.6 70.6 27 16.5 2.11 6.4 73.3 18 13.8 2.08 7.5 78.9 5 3 Irdonesia and Pacific 25.3 2.97 8.3 62.9 55 20.2 2.31 6.9 67.9 34 15.3 2.10 7.1 75.1 11 South Asia Region 30.5 4.03 10.8 58.4 93 25.1 3.15 9.0 62.3 72 17.4 2.22 7.7 70.4 31 1 Other South 34.0 4.46 13.4 52.2 104 28.1 3.32 11.1 55.9 81 18.3 2.26 8.6 65.6 46 2 India 28.4 3.74 10.2 59.8 88 22.9 2.88 8.5 63.9 65 16.3 2.12 7.7 71.9 22 3 Southwest 39.0 5.33 12.3 56.1 107 33.5 4.48 10.3 59.0 91 21.2 2.58 7.3 67.3 48 Middle East and No.Africa Region 37.9 5.20 8.5 63.1 69 32.4 4.34 6.6 67.1 51 23.5 2.94 4.9 74.2 16 1 North Africa 34.6 4.49 7.6 64.8 61 27.5 3.39 5.7 68.9 42 18.4 2.26 5.0 75.8 10 2 Middle East 39.1 5.47 8.8 62.5 72 34.1 4.69 6.9 66.4 54 24.9 3.13 4.9 73.8 17 Europe and Central Asia Region 17.6 2.44 9.3 71.5 27 16.0 2.23 8.7 74.4 18 13.6 2.07 8.7 79.4 5 1 Southern Europe 21.7 2.77 8.6 69.3 46 18.2 2.35 7.8 72.2 31 14.5 2.08 7.7 77.9 6 2 Other Europe 14.9 2.09 10.2 71.8 17 14.6 2.07 9.7 74.0 12 13.0 2.08 9.8 79.4 5 3 C.I.S. and Baltic Republics 17.0 2.42 9.3 72.2 20 15.6 2.23 8.7 75.3 14 13.5 2.07 8.7 80.0 5 LAC Region 26.2 3.15 6.6 68.2 47 20.5 2.43 5.7 71.4 33 15.2 2.09 6.3 77.4 8 1 Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela 26.0 3.12 6.8 67.1 53 19.7 2.34 5.7 71.0 36 14.9 2.08 6.6 77.3 8 2 Central America 28.6 3.40 5.6 69.3 41 22.3 2.56 4.8 72.3 28 15.6 2.08 5.4 78.1 6 3 Caribbean and other 26.4 3.07 7.0 66.7 54 21.7 2.52 6.5 69.0 41 15.7 2.14 6.7 75.4 15 4 Tewperate 22.1 2.87 7.5 70.9 30 18.8 2.38 6.9 73.2 21 14.7 2.09 7.0 78.7 6 Income group Low 29.0 3.59 9.8 62.1 75 24.5 3.10 8.7 64.9 61 18.2 2.40 7.7 71.4 31 Lower-middle 28.2 3.57 8.2 65.8 53 24.4 3.03 7.2 68.5 40 17.8 2.32 6.5 74.6 19 Upper-middle 27.3 3.41 7.3 68.1 53 23.1 2.91 6.2 71.2 39 18.7 2.55 6.1 76.9 10 High 13.4 1.79 8.7 77.2 8 12.2 1.85 8.5 79.3 6 11.6 2.05 10.4 82.6 3 Nonreporting nomember 17.3 2.37 8.9 72.3 20 15.7 2.20 8.3 75.4 14 13.5 2.07 8.6 80.1 5 INTRODUCTION XXXi Table 9. Long-run and Stationaiy Population, Momentum, Doubling Year, and Year when Net Reproduction reaches i by World Bank Region, Country Departnen4 and Income Group Population (millions) Stationary Year population when over popula- Statio- 1990 Population tion 1990 2050 2100 nary population momentum douiles NRR=1 Africa Region 512 1810 2472 2634 5.1 1.5 2016 2055 1 Occidental and Central 45 156 208 219 4.9 1.6 2015 2045 2 Eastern 126 515 733 781 6.2 1.6 2013 2050 3 South-Central and Indian Ocean 73 260 356 379 5.2 1.5 2015 2055 4 Western 119 362 465 499 4.2 1.5 2017 2045 5 Sahelian 41 171 248 268 6.5 1.5 2013 2055 6 Southern 108 344 461 488 4.5 1.5 2018 2050 East Asia and Pacific Region 1619 2669 2847 2911 1.8 1.5 (i) 2040 1 Southeast 299 567 622 645 2.3 1.5 2067 2040 2 China and Mongolia 1136 1769 1860 1892 1.7 1.4 (a) 2015 3 Indonesia and Pacific 184 333 364 375 2.0 1.5 2110 2035 South Asia Region 1126 2281 2616 2726 2.4 1.4 2048 2050 1 Other South 127 261 302 319 2.5 1.5 2045 2030 2 India 850 1599 1790 1855 2.2 1.4 2067 2015 3 Southwest 150 421 523 553 3.7 1.5 2022 2050 Middle East and No.Africa Region 240 834 1144 1199 5.0 1.6 2017 2060 1 North Africa 63 165 195 201 3.2 1.6 2025 2050 2 Middle East 177 669 948 998 5.6 1.6 2016 2060 Europe and Central Asia Region 473 654 694 706 1.5 1.2 (a) 2030 1 Southern Europe 99 157 168 171 1.7 1.3 (a) 2030 2 Other Europe 85 102 107 108 1.3 1.1 (a) 2030 3 C.l.S. and Baltic Republics 289 395 419 426 1.5 1.2 (a) 2030 LAC Region 429 823 900 919 2.1 1.6 2062 2030 1 Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela 192 360 391 399 2.1 1.5 2081 2010 2 Central America 115 242 267 272 2.4 1.7 2041 2025 3 Caribbean and other 59 112 124 128 2.2 1.6 2064 2030 4 Temperate 63 109 118 120 1.9 1.4 (a) 2030 Income group Low 3039 6268 7358 7765 2.6 1.4 2044 2055 Lower-middle 576 1249 1462 1510 2.6 1.6 2039 2055 Upper-middle 503 1155 1433 1496 3.0 1.4 2036 2060 HIgh 822 930 921 929 1.1 1.1 (a) 2030 Nonreporting noreneber 328 452 479 486 1.5 1.2 (a) 2030 Note: World Bank regions and country departments are defined in Box 2. Income groups are defined in Box 1. a. Population will not double with projected rates. XXXii INTRODUCTION Table 10. Estimates and Projectons of Total Population for AU Countries and Economies, 1985-2025 (thousands) Country, economy, or region 1985 1990 199S 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 World 4827212 5267831 5720651 6167907 6611985 7049458 7483922 7918682 8345351 Africa 541962 627000 723683 831304 948632 1072278 1200257 1332335 1466678 East Africa 233001 271890 3165"6 367230 423099 483136 547163 614317 683620 Botswana 1070 1254 1438 1609 1790 1972 2142 2303 2461 Burundi 4696 5427 6350 7395 8526 9747 11090 12544 14051 Comoros 395 475 566 664 775 898 1029 1163 1293 Djibouti 354 427 500 583 674 769 868 967 1061 Ethiopia 43350 51180 60334 71476 84649 99648 116629 135523 155953 Kenya 20241 24160 28753 33962 39692 45799 52064 58239 64336 Lesotho 1545 1768 2023 2289 2569 2852 3133 3398 3635 Madagascar 9985 11673 13490 15410 17443 19565 21700 23781 25716 Matawi 7188 8507 10055 11849 13837 16045 18518 21263 24233 Mauritius 1020 1074 1121 1171 1224 1276 1322 1362 1397 Mozambique 13791 15707 18140 21160 24691 28454 32513 36906 41562 Namibia 1518 1780 2069 2384 2722 3073 3418 3759 4080 Reunion 547 593 640 685 729 771 811 849 885 Rwarda 6102 7118 8663 10436 12343 14451 16846 19567 22558 Seychelles 65 68 71 75 79 83 88 92 97 Somalia 6686 7805 9058 10587 12365 14292 16367 18571 20849 South Africa 31569 35919 40336 44787 49153 53391 57465 61183 64765 Swaziland 664 797 947 1115 1305 1511 1726 1938 2144 Tanzania 21161 24517 28519 33318 38711 44435 50523 56990 63746 Uganda 14134 16330 19248 22533 25869 29454 33314 37416 41615 Zaire 31700 37320 43454 50191 57596 65389 73429 81408 89205 Zambia 6753 8111 9510 11001 12578 14283 16094 17949 19763 Zimbabwe 8406 9805 11194 12448 13660 14840 15914 16964 18016 Other East Africa 61 73 87 102 120 139 159 180 200 West Africa 185408 214927 248674 287080 329757 374622 420334 467641 515197 North Africa 123553 140182 15845 176994 195776 214519 232760 250377 267861 Algeria 21848 25056 28995 33135 37227 41209 44959 48411 51815 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 46511 52061 57396 62395 67418 72331 76895 81322 85640 Libya 3786 4546 5450 6492 7693 9052 10570 12236 14026 Morocco 22061 25091 28461 31823 35046 38209 41265 44129 46938 Sudan 21931 25188 29027 33141 37537 42086 46673 51095 55488 Tunisia 7261 8060 8910 9771 10585 11325 12053 12795 13523 Other North Africa 155 179 207 237 270 307 347 389 431 America 667381 720914 776830 829875 879231 926593 973651 1019274 1061325 Latin America and Caribbean 399445 40766 483233 524032 562470 600038 637907 674790 709350 Antigua and Barbuda 76 79 84 90 97 104 109 114 119 Argentina 30331 32293 34096 35820 37464 39095 40728 42296 43765 Bahamas, The 232 255 278 303 327 347 365 381 397 Barbados 253 257 263 270 276 281 286 292 298 Belize 166 188 215 245 275 303 329 354 379 Bolivia 6342 7171 8144 9145 10151 11133 12053 12888 13713 Brazil 135564 15(368 164880 178267 190425 202340 214473 226218 236961 ChiLe 12121 15173 14137 14973 15763 16570 1383 18162 18867 Colombia 29481 32345 35074 37622 40186 42820 45391 47794 49982 Costa Rica 2489 2807 3106 3377 3623 3867 4117 4360 4583 Cuba 10098 10617 11099 11615 12064 12449 12800 13142 13461 Dominica 74 72 74 79 85 91 97 102 108 Dominican Rep. 6416 7074 7709 8293 8826 9355 9899 10437 10947 INTRODUCTION XXXiii Table 10. Total Population (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Ecuador 9205 10284 11425 12577 13674 14670 15642 16621 17570 El Salvador 4767 5213 5703 6247 6816 7356 7846 8345 8883 Grenada 94 91 89 93 99 106 113 120 127 Guadeloupe 348 387 403 417 431 447 466 486 504 Guatemala 7963 9197 10622 12148 13757 15367 16959 18483 19889 Guyana 790 798 818 837 863 901 951 1000 1045 Haiti 5889 6472 7156 7830 8482 9164 9876 10603 11337 Honduras 4383 5105 5921 6802 7722 8633 9530 10385 11172 Jamaica 2311 2420 2520 2591 2667 2756 2860 2974 3095 Martinique 341 360 380 399 414 427 440 453 466 Mexico 78524 86154 94820 103273 110986 118576 126470 134235 141586 Montserrat 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 Netherlands Antilles 182 189 201 215 228 240 250 260 269 Nicaragua 3272 3853 4505 5198 5922 6643 7361 8049 8680 Panama 2180 2418 2634 2826 3012 3205 3396 3578 3745 Paraguay 3693 4314 4989 5694 6432 7215 8041 8843 9588 Peru 19383 21663 24126 26526 28774 30770 32728 34726 36675 St. Kitts and Nevis 43 40 37 35 34 34 35 37 39 St. Lucia 137 150 162 176 190 202 215 228 241 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 102 107 114 121 '29 138 146 154 162 Suriname 398 447 498 545 587 627 667 710 751 Trinidad and Tobago 1160 1236 1301 1364 1428 1499 1576 1653 1725 Uruguay 3008 3094 3177 3274 3390 3501 3603 3697 3788 Venezueta 17317 19738 22108 24358 26456 28367 30241 32124 33929 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 107 110 116 123 132 140 147 153 159 Other Latin America 194 214 234 253 270 287 302 316 329 Northern America 267936 280148 293597 305843 316761 326556 335745 344484 35s975 Canada 25165 26522 27897 29158 30254 31189 32003 32738 33351 Puerto Rico 3377 3530 3650 3761 3859 3937 4001 4072 4151 United States of America 239279 249975 261923 272793 282513 291291 299600 307530 314329 Other Northern America 115 121 126 131 135 138 141 143 144 Asia 2822403 3102850 3384237 3652741 3912291 4162905 4408344 4653070 4891874 East and Southeast Asia 1651813 1787967 1922961 2046631 2158151 2260784 2360899 2459637 2553483 Brunef 219 256 297 337 374 406 433 458 483 Cambodia 7486 8469 9467 10254 10927 11605 12290 12997 13671 China (excluding Taiwan) 1047983 1133698 1218135 1293548 1359574 1420311 1480374 1540268 1597165 Taiwan, China 19135 20313 21218 22062 22915 23740 24490 25135 25701 Hong Kong 5456 5806 6074 6297 6494 6656 6787 6888 6960 Indonesia 163036 178232 193824 208935 222951 236338 249575 262433 274628 Japan 12075' 123519 125710 127591 129215 129996 129823 128954 127740 Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of 19888 21576 23496 25363 27073 28581 29981 31351 32669 Korea, Rep. of 40806 42797 44746 46642 48460 50026 51346 52487 53526 Lao People's Dem. Rep. 3594 4186 4883 5660 6491 7394 8375 9403 10417 Macao 392 459 503 535 556 575 594 613 630 Malaysia 15682 17857 20134 22340 24429 26429 28300 30151 32001 Mongolia 1856 2124 2425 2735 3043 3338 3617 3874 4128 Myamar 37544 41609 46413 50946 55053 58609 62148 65892 69640 Philippines 54700 61480 67757 73703 79476 84899 90285 95694 100911 Singapore 2731 3003 3219 3370 3500 3618 3729 3831 3915 Thailand 51683 55853 59818 63855 68048 72128 75930 79427 82685 Viet Nam 58868 66312 74329 81964 89085 95587 102137 108960 115696 XXXiV INTRODUCTION Table 10. Total Population (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 South Asia 1055231 1182312 1308211 1431722 1557371 1682379 1803830 1925280 2045815 Afghanistan 18087 20445 23436 26968 31221 36062 41246 46822 52759 Bangladesh 95456 106656 117577 127929 138586 148803 157999 166895 175624 Bhutan 1286 1433 1614 1821 2045 2268 2492 2712 2938 India 765147 849515 929921 1006114 1081237 1153367 1219866 1284486 1347589 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 46374 55779 66436 78264 91593 106929 124609 144534 166380 Matdives 182 214 253 296 342 391 443 494 546 Nepal 16682 18916 21495 24112 26785 29428 31993 34400 36553 Pakistan 96180 112351 129496 147290 165623 184166 203241 222099 239764 Sri Lanka 15837 17002 17985 18928 19938 20965 21942 22838 23663 Southwest Asia 115359 132571 153065 174389 196770 219742 243615 268153 292576 Bahrain 425 503 585 663 739 815 894 970 1037 Cyprus 666 702 731 758 786 814 842 867 888 Gaza Strip 517 588 684 789 909 1044 1191 1344 1499 Iraq 15898 18914 22410 26373 30660 35153 39699 44159 48368 Israel 4233 4659 5923 6425 6831 7211 7595 7978 8343 Jordan (East Bank) 2642 3098 3942 4615 5288 5926 6548 7153 7718 Kuwait 1712 2143 2235 2520 2782 3007 3190 3357 3501 Lebanon 2668 2681 2813 3013 3270 3510 3738 3974 4221 Oman 1242 1554 1901 2274 2680 3139 3641 4163 4672 Qatar 358 439 510 581 651 720 787 851 909 Saudi Arabia 12395 14870 17895 21335 25198 29412 33927 38590 43176 Syrian Arab Rep. 10348 12360 14860 17675 20807 24184 27720 31266 34797 Turkey 50306 56098 62027 67704 72901 77507 82016 86610 91065 United Arab Emirates 1349 1592 1793 1980 2151 2315 2455 2565 2660 West Bank 930 1088 1289 1507 1734 1957 2174 2381 2572 Yemen, Rep. of 9670 11282 13465 16177 19383 23027 27197 31925 37152 Europe and C.I.S. 769742 790333 808216 825469 84'.364 857207 870514 882598 893937 ALbania 2962 3250 3516 3766 4000 4237 4475 4705 4917 Armenia 3198 3325 3445 3608 3781 3954 4120 4268 4404 Austria 7555 7712 7803 7840 7869 7862 7846 7827 7795 Azerbaijan 6669 7149 7540 7987 8425 8887 9359 9804 10213 Belarus 9975 10278 10545 10811 11066 11290 11502 11702 11904 Belgium 9858 9956 10085 10197 10279 10322 10333 10343 10358 Bulgaria 8941 8823 8724 8661 8649 8636 8632 8631 8647 Channel Islands 134 144 151 155 157 157 158 159 159 Czechoslovakia 15500 15662 15824 16058 16366 16655 16924 17174 17425 Croatia 4657 4712 4765 4822 4877 4919 4942 4954 4964 Denmark 5114 5140 5187 5228 5250 5257 5257 5260 5261 Estonia 1532 1583 1633 1669 1705 1739 1769 1798 1825 Finland 4902 4986 5072 5144 5209 5260 5304 5342 5368 France 55170 56440 57655 58777 59831 60719 61396 61996 62540 Georgia 5299 5462 5616 5792 5962 6113 6256 6389 6521 Germany 77698 79484 80537 81126 81457 81253 80855 80380 79723 Greece 9934 10067 10168 10246 10323 10354 10328 10256 10175 Hungary 10657 10553 10291 10154 10069 10008 9952 9912 9881 Iceland 241 255 269 282 295 306 317 327 337 Ireland 3540 3503 3498 3528 3561 3633 3722 3824 3923 Italy 57141 57663 57943 57985 57920 57600 56960 56199 55436 Kazakhstan 15852 16746 17473 18332 19209 20154 21118 22004 22796 Kyrgyzstan 3996 4395 4757 5189 5626 6060 6470 6868 7263 Latvia 2621 2686 2765 2813 2861 2904 2944 2982 3017 INTRODUCTION XXXV Table 10. Total Population (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Lithuania 3578 3731 3901 4007 4110 4199 4280 4356 4427 Luxembourg 367 378 384 387 388 388 387 387 386 Matta 344 354 362 371 380 388 396 403 409 Moldova 4192 4367 4498 4640 4839 5105 5370 5593 5777 Netherlands 14492 14943 15433 15844 16105 16272 16392 16499 16583 Norway 4153 4242 4342 4434 4511 4573 4636 4703 4768 Poland 37203 38180 38973 39770 40693 41643 42542 43366 44144 PortugaL 10157 10354 10552 10736 10906 11036 11120 11181 11241 Romania 22725 23199 23612 24115 24646 25136 25605 26073 26562 Russian Federation 143858 148255 151826 155240 158858 162214 165512 168473 171235 Stovenia 1925 1954 1981 2012 2045 2072 2089 2098 2103 Spain 38505 38959 39391 39764 40139 40366 40422 40401 40402 Sweden 8350 8559 8761 8924 9035 9097 9173 9266 9350 Switzerland 6470 6712 6880 7011 7095 7125 7142 7152 7148 Tajikistan 4580 5302 6046 6874 7718 8577 9412 10169 10903 Turkmenistan 3244 3669 4067 4479 4894 5308 5702 6082 6453 United Kingdom 56618 57395 58314 59101 59735 60274 60834 61481 62123 Ukraine 50917 51860 52854 53754 54614 55307 55988 56621 57306 Uzbekistan 18090 20532 22765 25224 27696 30147 32450 34682 36887 YugosLavia 16567 17142 1MO 18321 18908 19391 19805 20179 20543 Other Europe 260 271 282 293 303 312 320 328 334 Oceania 24629 26735 28919 30979 32876 34556 36041 37348 38581 Australia 15758 17085 18399 19587 20635 21503 22202 22760 23250 Fiji 700 744 782 813 842 874 909 947 984 French Polynesia 171 197 225 254 280 301 321 340 360 Guam 123 137 149 159 170 180 191 200 209 Kiribati 64 70 77 84 90 97 103 110 116 Micronesia, Fed. States of 91 103 117 132 149 165 180 194 208 New Caledonia 152 165 178 190 203 215 226 237 247 New Zealand 3290 3405 3528 3655 3773 3878 3977 4073 4160 Papua New Guinea 3460 3915 4429 4937 5429 5905 6362 6788 7222 Solomon Islands 274 316 372 432 494 553 611 667 719 Tonga 95 99 105 111 117 124 130 137 146 Vanuatu 131 151 177 205 234 263 292 320 348 Western Samoa 157 165 178 193 211 231 250 268 286 Other Micronesia 85 97 110 122 135 147 157 168 179 Other PoLynesia 79 85 94 103 114 123 131 140 149 MMxvi INTRODUCnON Table 11. Estimates and Projections of Population Growth Rate for All Countries and Economies, 1985-90 to 2020-25 (percent per year) Country, economy, or region 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 World 1.76 1.66 1.51 1.40 1.29 1.20 1.13 1.05 Africa 2.92 2.87 2.77 2.64 2.45 2.25 2.07 1.89 East Africa 3.09 3.04 2.97 2.83 2.65 2.49 2.32 2.14 Botswana 3.17 2.74 2.25 2.13 1.94 1.65 1.45 1.33 Burundi 2.89 3.14 3.05 2.85 2.68 2.58 2.46 2.27 Comoros 3.69 3.43 3.26 3.09 2.95 2.72 2.45 2.12 Djibouti 3.75 3.16 3.07 2.90 2.64 2.42 2.16 1.86 Ethiopia 3.32 3.29 3.39 3.38 3.26 3.15 3.00 2.81 Kenya 3.54 3.48 3.33 3.12 2.86 2.56 2.24 1.99 Lesotho 2.70 2.69 2.47 2.31 2.09 1.88 1.62 1.35 Madagascar 3.12 2.89 2.66 2.48 2.30 2.07 1.83 1.56 Malawi 3.37 3.34 3.28 3.10 2.96 2.87 2.76 2.61 Mauritius 1.03 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.83 0.71 0.60 0.51 Mozambique 2.60 2.88 3.08 3.09 2.84 2.67 2.53 2.38 Namibia 3.18 3.01 2.83 2.65 2.43 2.13 1.90 1.6k Reunion 1.61 1.53 1.36 1.25 1.12 1.01 0.92 0.83 Rwanda 3.08 3.93 3.72 3.36 3.15 3.07 2.99 2.84 Seychetles 0.90 0.86 1.10 1.04 0.99 1.17 0.89 1.06 Somalia 3.09 2.98 3.12 3.10 2.90 2.71 2.53 2.31 South Africa 2.58 2.32 2.09 1.86 1.65 1.47 1.25 1.14 Swaziland 3.65 3.45 3.27 3.15 2.93 2.66 2.32 2.02 Tanzania 2.94 3.02 3.11 3.00 2.76 2.57 2.41 2.24 Uganda 2.89 3.29 3.15 2.76 2.60 2.46 2.32 2.13 Zaire 3.26 3.04 2.88 2.75 2.54 2.32 2.06 1.83 Zambia 3.66 3.18 2.91 2.68 2.54 2.39 2.18 1.93 Zimbabwe 3.08 2.65 2.12 1.86 1.66 1.40 1.28 1.20 Other East Africa 3.59 3.51 3.18 3.25 2.94 2.69 2.48 2.11 West Africa 2.97 2.91 2.85 2.75 2.54 2.29 2.07 1.85 Angola 2.69 2.84 3.10 3.14 2.88 2.69 2.54 2.36 Benin 3.18 2.97 2.72 2.46 2.28 2.04 1.74 1.60 Burkina Faso 2.69 2.79 2.91 2.84 2.67 2.51 2.33 2.12 Cameroon 2.88 2.87 2.90 2.91 2.67 2.36 2.03 1.83 Cape Verde 2.71 3.14 2.79 2.45 2.18 2.08 1.91 1.65 Central African Rep. 2.74 2.53 2.39 2.22 2.02 1.83 1.63 1.54 Chad 2.48 2.56 2.77 2.81 2.58 2.40 2.22 2.00 Congo, People's Rep. of the 3.22 3.23 3.23 3.22 3.01 2.82 2.63 2.39 Cote d'ivoire 3.98 3.54 3.28 3.06 2.81 2.53 2.25 1.95 Equatorial Guinea 2.23 2.22 2.31 2.24 2.05 1.86 1.67 1.54 Gabon 2.61 2.74 2.78 2.87 2.66 2.52 2.40 2.19 Gambia, The 3.14 2.89 2.77 2.76 2.70 2.54 2.39 2.22 Ghana 3.28 3.09 2.87 2.67 2.45 2.19 1.92 1.65 Guinea 2.73 2.70 2.85 2.98 2.87 2.62 2.42 2.25 Guinea-Bissau 2.02 1.91 2.01 2.04 2.06 1.93 1.77 1.61 Liberia 3.05 3.01 2.84 2.68 2.47 2.23 1.91 1.73 Mali 2.71 2.87 3.11 3.17 3.03 2.90 2.75 2.58 Mauritania 2.60 2.69 2.90 3.09 3.07 2.90 2.76 2.59 Niger 3.11 3.12 3.30 3.48 3.42 3.22 3.06 2.92 Nigeria 2.91 2.87 2.75 2.58 2.31 2.01 1.89 1.69 Sao Tome and Principe 2.74 2.56 2.41 2.27 2.04 1.75 1.61 1.32 Senegal 2.93 3.04 3.13 3.02 2.80 2.61 2.43 2.21 Sierra Leone 2.48 2.46 2.61 2.76 2.74 2.56 2.40 2.24 Togo 3.60 3.33 3.06 2.84 2.66 2.44 2.15 1.90 Other West Africa 0.00 2.67 0.00 2.36 0.00 2.11 0.00 1.91 North Africa 2.53 2.45 2.21 2.02 1.83 1.63 1.46 1.35 Algeria 2.74 2.92 2.67 2.33 2.03 1.74 1.48 1.36 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 2.25 1.95 1.67 1.55 1.41 1.22 1.12 1.03 INTRODUCnON XXXViI Table 11. Population Growth Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-90 1990I95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010- 15 2015-20 2020-25 Libya 3.66 3.63 3.50 3.39 3.25 3.10 2.93 2.73 Morocco 2.57 2.52 2.23 1.93 1.73 1.54 1.34 1.23 Sudan 2.77 2.84 2.65 2.49 2.29 2.07 1.81 1.65 Tunisia 2.09 2.01 1.84 1.60 1.35 1.25 1.19 1.11 Other North Africa 2.88 2.91 2.71 2.61 2.57 2.45 2.29 2.05 America 1.54 1.49 1.32 1.16 1.05 0.99 0.92 0.81 Latin America and Caribbean 1.97 1.84 1.62 1.42 1.29 1.22 1.12 1.00 Antigua and Barbuda 0.77 1.23 1.38 1.50 1.39 0.94 0.90 0.86 Argentina 1.25 1.09 0.99 0.90 0.85 0.82 0.76 0.68 Bahamas, The 1.89 1.73 1.72 1.52 1.19 1.01 0.86 0.82 Barbados 0.31 0.46 0.53 0.44 0.36 0.35 0.42 0.41 Belize 2.49 2.68 2.61 2.31 1.94 1.65 1.46 1.36 Bolivia 2.46 2.54 2.32 2.09 1.85 1.59 1.34 1.24 Brazil 2.07 1.84 1.56 1.32 1.21 1.16 1.07 0.93 Chile 1.66 1.41 1.15 1.03 1.00 0.96 0.88 0.76 Colombia 1.85 1.62 1.40 1.32 1.27 1.17 1.03 0.90 Costa Rica 2.40 2.02 1.67 1.41 1.30 1.25 1.15 1.00 Cuba 1.00 0.89 0.91 0.76 0.63 0.56 0.53 0.48 Dominica -0.55 0.55 1.31 1.46 1.36 1.28 1.01 1.14 Dominican Rep. 1.95 1.72 1.46 1.25 1.16 1.13 1.06 0.95 Ecuador 2.22 2.10 1.92 1.67 1.41 1.28 1.21 1.11 El Salvador 1.79 1.80 1.82 1.74 1.52 1.29 1.23 1.25 Grenada -0.65 -0.44 0.88 1.25 1.37 1.28 1.20 1.13 Guadeloupe 2.12 0.81 0.68 0.66 0.73 0.83 0.84 0.73 Guatemala 2.88 2.88 2.68 2.49 2.21 1.97 1.72 1.47 Guyana 0.20 0.50 0.46 0.61 0.86 1.08 1.00 0.88 Haiti 1.89 2.01 1.80 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.42 1.34 Honduras 3.05 2.97 2.77 2.54 2.23 1.98 1.72 1.46 Jamaica 0.92 0.81 0.56 0.58 0.66 0.74 0.78 0.80 Martinique 1.08 1.08 0.98 0.74 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.57 Mexico 1.85 1.92 1.71 1.44 1.32 1.29 1.19 1.07 Montserrat 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.60 1.48 0.00 1.38 Netherlands Antilles 0.75 1.23 1.35 1.17 1.03 0.82 0.78 0.68 Nicaragua 3.27 3.13 2.86 2.61 2.30 2.05 1.79 1.51 Panama 2.07 1.71 1.41 1.27 1.24 1.16 1.04 0.91 Paraguay 3.11 2.91 2.64 2.44 2.30 2.17 1.90 1.62 Peru 2.22 2.15 1.90 1.63 1.34 1.23 1.19 1.09 St. Kitts and Nevis -1.45 -1.56 .1.11 -0.58 0.00 0.58 1.11 1.05 St. Lucia 1.81 1.54 1.66 1.53 1.22 1.25 1.17 1.11 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0.96 1.27 1.19 1.28 1.35 1.13 1.07 1.01 Suriname 2.32 2.16 1.80 1.48 1.32 1.24 1.25 1.12 Trinidad and Tobago 1.27 1.03 0.95 0.92 0.97 1.00 0.95 0.85 Uruguay 0.56 0.53 0.60 0.70 0.64 0.57 0.52 0.49 Venezuela 2.62 2.27 1.94 1.65 1.39 1.28 1.21 1.09 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 0.55 1.06 1.17 1.41 1.18 0.98 0.80 0.77 Other Latin America 1.96 1.79 1.56 1.30 1.22 1.02 0.91 0.81 Northern America 0.89 0.94 0.82 0.70 0.61 0.56 0.51 0.43 Canada 1.05 1.01 0.88 0.74 0.61 0.52 0.45 0.37 Puerto Rico 0.89 0.67 0.60 0.51 0.40 0.32 0.35 0.38 United States of America 0.87 0.93 0.81 0.70 0.61 0.56 0.52 0.44 Other Northern America 1.02 0.81 0.78 0.60 0.44 0.43 0.28 0.14 Asia 1.89 1.74 1.53 1.37 1.24 1.15 1.08 1.00 East and Southeast Asia 1.58 1.46 1.25 1.06 0.93 0.87 0.82 0.75 Brurei 3.12 2.97 2.53 2.08 1.64 1.29 1.12 1.06 Caubodia 2.47 2.23 1.60 1.27 1.20 1.15 1.12 1.01 China (excluding Taiwan) 1.57 1.44 1.20 1.00 0.87 0.83 0.79 0.73 XOxxVii INTRODUCTION Table 11. Population Growth Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-90 1990-95 ¶995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 Taiwan, China 1.19 0.87 0.78 0.76 0.71 0.62 0.52 0.45 Hong Kong 1.24 0.90 0.72 0.62 0.49 0.39 0.30 0.21 Indonesia 1.78 1.68 1.50 1.30 1.17 1.09 1.00 0.91 Japan 0.45 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.12 -0.03 -0.13 -0.19 Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of 1.63 1.70 1.53 1.30 1.08 0.96 0.89 0.82 Korea, Rep. of 0.95 0.89 0.83 0.76 0.64 0.52 0.44 0.39 Lao People's Dem. Rep. 3.05 3.08 2.95 2.74 2.61 2.49 2.32 2.05 Macao 3.16 1.83 1.23 0.77 0.67 0.65 0.63 0.55 Malaysia 2.60 2.40 2.08 1.79 1.57 1.37 1.27 1.19 Mongolia 2.70 2.65 2.41 2.13 1.85 1.61 1.37 1.27 Myanmar 2.06 2.19 1.86 1.55 1.25 1.17 1.17 1.11 Philippines 2.34 1.94 1.68 1.51 1.32 1.23 1.16 1.06 Singapore 1.90 1.39 0.92 0.76 0.66 0.60 0.54 0.43 Thailand 1.55 1.37 1.31 1.27 1.16 1.03 0.90 0.80 Viet Nam 2.38 2.28 1.96 1.67 1.41 1.33 1.29' 1.20 South Asia 2.27 2.02 1.80 1.68 1.54 1.39 1.30 1.21 Afghanistan 2.45 2.73 2.81 2.93 2.88 2.69 2.54 2.39 Bangladesh 2.22 1.95 1.69 1.60 1.42 1.20 1.10 1.02 Bhutan 2.16 2.38 2.41 2.32 2.07 1.88 1.69 1.60 India 2.09 1.81 1.58 1.44 1.29 1.12 1.03 0.96 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 3.69 3.50 3.28 3.15 3.10 3.06 2.97 2.82 Maldives 3.24 3.35 3.14 2.89 2.68 2.50 2.18 2.00 Nepal 2.51 2.56 2.30 2.10 1.88 1.67 1.45 1.21 Pakistan 3.11 2.84 2.58 2.35 2.12 1.97 1.77 1.53 Sri Lanka 1.42 1.12 1.02 1.04 1.00 0.91 0.80 0.71 Southwest Asia 2.78 2.87 2.61 2.41 2.21 2.06 1.92 1.74 Bahrain 3.37 3.02 2.50 2.17 1.96 1.85 1.63 1.34 Cyprus 1.05 0.81 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.68 0.59 0.48 Gaza Strip 2.57 3.02 2.86 2.83 2.77 2.63 2.42 2.18 Iraq 3.47 3.39 3.26 3.01 2.74 2.43 2.13 1.82 Israel 1.92 4.80 1.63 1.23 1.08 1.04 0.98 0.89 Jordan (East Bank) 3.18 4.82 3.15 2.72 2.28 2.00 1.77 1.52 Kuwait 4.49 0.84 2.40 1.98 1.56 1.18 1.02 0.84 Lebanon 0.10 0.96 1.37 1.64 1.42 1.26 1.22 1.21 Oman 4.48 4.03 3.58 3.29 3.16 2.97 2.68 2.31 Qatar 4.08 3.00 2.61 2.28 2.01 1.78 1.56 1.32 Saudi Arabia 3.64 3.70 3.52 3.33 3.09 2.86 2.58 2.25 Syrian Arab Rep. 3.55 3.68 3.47 3.26 3.01 2.73 2.41 2.14 Turkey 2.18 2.01 1.75 1.48 1.23 1.13 1.09 1.00 United Arab Emirates 3.31 2.38 1.98 1.66 1.47 1.17 0.88 0.73 West Bank 3.14 3.39 3.13 2.81 2.42 2.10 1.82 1.54 Yemen, Rep. of 3.08 3.54 3.67 3.62 3.45 3.33 3.21 3.03 Europe and C.I.S. 0.53 0.45 0.42 0.41 0.35 0.31 0.28 0.26 Albania 1.86 1.57 1.37 1.21 1.15 1.09 1.00 0.88 Armenia 0.78 0.71 0.92 0.94 0.89 0.82 0.71 0.63 Austria 0.41 0.23 0.09 0.07 -0.02 -0.04 -0.05 -0.08 AzerbaiJan 1.39 1.06 1.15 1.07 1.07 1.03 0.93 0.82 Belarus 0.60 0.51 0.50 0.47 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.34 Selgiun 0.20 0.26 0.22 0.16 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.03 Bulgaria -0.27 -0.23 -0.14 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 -0.00 0.04 Channel Islands 1.44 0.95 0.52 0.26 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.00 Czechoslovakia 0.21 0.21 0.29 0.38 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.29 Croatia 0.23 0.22 0.24 0.23 0.17 0.09 0.05 0.04 Denmark 0.10 0.18 0.16 0.08 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 Estonia 0.65 0.62 0.44 0.43 0.39 0.34 0.33 0.30 Finland 0.34 0.34 0.28 0.25 0.19 0.17 0.14 0.10 France 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.29 0.22 0.19 0.17 INTRODUCTION XXXiX Table 11. Populadion Growth Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010.15 2015-20 2020-25 Georgia 0.61 0.56 0.62 0.58 0.50 0.46 0.42 0.41 Gormany 0.45 0.26 0.15 0.08 -0.05 -0.10 -0.12 -0.16 Greece 0.27 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.06 -0.05 -0.14 -0.16 Hungary -0.20 -0.50 -0.27 -0.17 -0.12 -0.11 -0.08 -0.06 Iceland 1.13 1.07 0.94 0.90 0.73 0.71 0.62 0.60 Ireland -0.21 -0.03 0.17 0.19 0.40 0.48 0.54 0.51 Itaty 0.18 0.10 0.01 -0.02 -0.11 -0.22 -0.27 -0.27 Kazakhstan 1.10 0.85 0.96 0.93 0.96 0.93 0.82 0.71 Kyrgyzstan 1.90 1.58 1.74 1.62 1.49 1.31 1.19 1.12 Latvia 0.49 0.58 0.34 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.26 0.23 Lithuania 0.84 0.89 0.54 0.51 0.43 0.38 0.35 0.32 Luxembourg 0.59 0.31 0.16 0.05 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.05 Malta 0.57 0.45 0.49 0.48 0.42 0.41 0.35 0.30 Moldova 0.82 0.59 0.62 0.84 1.07 1.01 0.81 0.65 Netherlands 0.61 0.65 0.53 0.33 0.21 0.15 0.13 0.10 Norway 0.42 0.47 0.42 0.34 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.27 Poland 0.52 0.41 0.40 0.46 0.46 0.43 0.38 0.36 Portugal 0.38 0.38 0.35 0.31 0.24 0.15 0.11 0.11 Romania 0.41 0.35 0.42 0.44 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.37 Russian Federation 0.60 0.48 0.44 0.46 0.42 0.40 0.35 0.33 Slovenia 0.50 0.27 0.31 0.33 0.26 0.16 0.09 0.05 Spain 0.23 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.11 0.03 -0.01 0.00 Sweden 0.49 0.47 0.37 0.25 0.14 0.17 0.20 0.18 Switzerland 0.73 0.49 0.38 0.24 0.08 0.05 0.03 -0.01 Tajikistan 2.93 2.63 2.57 2.32 2.11 1.86 1.55 1.39 Turkmenistan 2.46 2.06 1.93 1.77 1.62 1.43 1.29 1.18 United Kingdom 0.27 0.32 0.27 0.21 0.18 0.18 0.21 0.21 Ukraine 0.37 0.38 0.34 0.32 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.24 Uzbekistan 2.53 2.06 2.05 1.87 1.70 1.47 1.33 1.23 Yugoslavia 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.63 0.50 0.42 0.37 0.36 Other Europe 0.83 0.80 0.77 0.67 0.59 0.51 0.49 0.36 Oceanfa 1.64 1.57 1.38 1.19 1.00 0.84 0.71 0.65 Australia 1.62 1.48 1.25 1.04 0.82 0.64 0.50 0.43 Fiji 1.22 1.00 0.78 0.70 0.75 0.79 0.82 0.77 French Polynesia 2.83 2.66 2.42 1.95 1.45 1.29 1.15 1.14 Gusm 2.16 1.68 1.30 1.34 1.14 1.19 0.92 0.88 Kiribati 1.79 1.91 1.74 1.38 1.50 1.20 1.32 1.06 Micronesia, Fed. States of 2.48 2.55 2.61 2.42 2.04 1.74 1.50 1.39 New Caledonia 1.64 1.52 1.30 1.32 1.15 1.00 0.95 0.83 New Zesland 0.69 0.71 0.71 0.64 0.55 0.50 0.48 0.42 Papua New Guinea 2.47 2.47 2.17 1.90 1.68 1.49 1.30 1.24 Solomon Islands 2.85 3.26 2.99 2.68 2.26 1.99 1.75 1.50 Tons 0.82 1.18 1.11 1.05 1.16 0.95 1.05 1.27 Vanuatu 2.84 3.18 2.94 2.65 2.34 2.09 1.83 1.68 Western Samoa 0.99 1.52 1.62 1.78 1.81 1.58 1.39 1.30 Other Mfcronesia 2.64 2.52 2.07 2.03 1.70 1.32 1.35 1.27 Other Polynesfa 1.46 2.01 1.83 2.03 1.52 1.26 1.33 1.25 Xl INTRODUCTION Table 12. Estimates and Projectons of Total Ferti Rate (TFR) for Al Cowuies and Economies, 1985-90 to 2025-30 Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 World 3.44 3.24 3.03 2.88 2.74 2.61 2.52 2.44 2.35 Africa 6.06 5.85 5.50 5.10 4.59 4.09 3.64 3.27 2.92 East Africa 6.41 6.30 6.07 5.70 5.17 4.64 4.14 3.69 3.27 Botswana 5.30 4.33 3.35 2.92 2.54 2.22 2.10 2.09 2.08 Burundi 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.50 5.90 5.30 4.70 4.10 3.50 Comoros 7.00 6.70 6.10 5.50 4.90 4.30 3.70 3.13 2.65 Djibouti 6.60 6.60 6.30 5.70 5.10 4.50 3.90 3.30 2.91 Ethiopia 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.20 6.60 6.00 5.40 4.80 4.20 Kenya 6.70 6.43 5.86 5.28 4.68 4.08 3.48 3.02 2.61 Lesotho 5.80 5.50 4.90 4.30 3.70 3.17 2.72 2.34 2.20 Madagascar 6.46 6.16 5.56 4.96 4.36 3.76 3.24 2.79 2.40 Malawi 7.60 7.60 7.60 7.30 6.70 6.10 5.50 4.90 '.30 Mauritius 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.81 1.86 1.91 1.96 2.01 2.06 Mozambique 6.30 6.52 6.74 6.66 6.06 5.46 4.86 4.26 3.66 Namibia 6.09 5.79 5.19 4.59 3.99 3.39 2.97 2.59 2.27 Reunion 2.42 2.16 2.07 2.06 2.06 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.05 Rwanda 8.29 8.29 7.99 7.39 6.79 6.19 5.59 4.99 4.39 Seychelles 3.00 2.70 2.42 2.18 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Somalia 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.47 5.87 5.27 4.67 4.07 3.47 South Africa 4.48 4.08 3.68 3.28 2.88 2.54 2.23 2.12 2.11 Swaziland 6.87 6.57 5.97 5.37 4.77 4.17 3.57 3.07 2.64 Tanzania 6.50 6.61 6.72 6.53 5.93 5.33 4.73 4.13 3.53 Uganda 7.30 7.30 7.00 6.40 5.80 5.20 4.60 4.00 3.40 Zaire 6.30 6.22 5.84 5.46 4.86 4.26 3.66 3.15 2.72 Zambia 6.75 6.67 6.29 5.91 5.31 4.71 4.11 3.51 3.06 Zimbabwe 5.40 4.55 3.70 3.19 2.76 2.38 2.24 2.22 2.19 Other East Africa 7.00 6.70 6.10 5.50 4.90 4.30 3.70 3.13 2.65 West Africa 6.28 6.14 5.76 5.33 4.76 4.16 3.65 3.19 2.79 Angola 6.39 6.56 6.72 6.59 5.99 5.39 4.79 4.19 3.59 Benin 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.20 2.88 2.59 Burkina faso 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.20 Cameroon 5.90 5.85 5.50 5.14 4.54 3.94 3.34 2.93 2.57 Cape Verde 5.58 5.28 4.68 4.08 3.48 3.00 2.59 2.23 2.10 Central African Rep. 5.75 5.75 5.46 5.16 4.56 3.96 3.36 2.98 2.65 Chad 5.89 6.03 6.17 6.00 5.40 4.80 4.20 3.60 3.10 Congo, People's Rep. of the 6.50 6.61 6.43 6.24 5.64 5.04 4.44 3.84 3.24 Cote d'ivoire 6.80 6.61 6.12 5.63 5.03 4.43 3.83 3.23 2.86 Equatorial Guinea 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.20 4.60 4.00 3.40 3.00 2.65 Gabon 5.50 5.92 6.03 6.15 5.55 4.95 4.35 3.75 3.15 Gantia, The 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 Ghana 6.40 6.10 5.50 4.90 4.30 3.70 3.17 2.72 2.34 Guinea 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 Guinea-Bissau 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 5.70 5.10 4.50 3.90 3.39 Liberia 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.20 2.85 2.54 Mali 7.00 7.06 7.11 6.87 6.27 5.67 5.07 4.47 3.87 Mauritania 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.80 6.50 5.90 5.30 4.70 4.10 Niger 7.10 7.18 7.27 7.35 7.05 6.45 5.85 5.25 4.65 Nigeria 6.10 5.86 5.31 4.77 4.17 3.57 3.24 2.89 2.57 Sao Tome and Prlncipe 5.25 4.95 4.35 3.75 3.15 2.78 2.45 2.16 2.06 Senegal 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.20 Sierra Leone 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 Togo 6.80 6.50 5.90 5.30 4.70 4.10 3.50 3.04 2.65 Other West Africa 2.99 2.71 2.4 2.23 2.14 2.12 2.09 2.07 2.05 North Africa 5.03 4.55 4.01 3.54 3.15 2.80 2.53 2.40 2.31 Algeria 5.50 4.82 4.14 3.46 2.99 2.58 2.23 2.11 2.09 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 4.38 3.84 3.30 2.92 2.59 2.29 2.18 2.15 2.12 INTRODUCTION Xi Table 12. Total Fertilty Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Libya 6.87 6.47 6.06 5.66 5.25 4.85 4.44 4.04 3.63 Morocco 4.84 4.30 3.75 3.21 2.84 2.52 2.23 2.12 2.10 Sudan 6.44 6.22 5.71 5.19 4.59 3.99 3.39 3.00 2.65 Tunisia 4.00 3.31 2.90 2.55 2.23 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.08 Other North Africa 6.50 6.50 5.99 5.48 4.97 4.46 3.95 3.44 2.99 America 2.82 2.70 2.49 2.29 2.19 2.15 2.12 2.10 2.08 Lattn America and Caribbean 3.53 3.12 2.74 2.42 2.26 2.20 2.15 2.11 2.09 Antigua and Barbuda 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.93 1.95 1.98 2.01 2.03 2.06 Argentina 2.96 2.68 2.42 2.19 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 Bahamas, The 2.30 2.13 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Barbados 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.01 2.05 Belize 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.01 2.58 2.22 2.08 2.07 Bolivia 5.00 4.70 4.10 3.50 3.03 2.62 2.26 2.14 2.11 Brazil 3.49 3.02 2.62 2.27 2.14 2.12 2.11 2.09 2.08 Chile 2.73 2.44 2.19 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Colobia 2.90 2.55 2.24 2.13 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 Costa Rica 3.26 2.86 2.51 2.20 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Cuba 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.93 1.96 1.98 2.01 2.04 2.06 Dominica 3.13 2.64 2.23 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 Dominican Rep. 3.50 3.03 2.63 2.28 2.15 2.13 2.11 2.10 2.08 Ecuador 4.10 3.50 3.03 2.62 2.26 2.13 2.12 2.10 2.09 El Salvador 4.60 4.05 3.49 3.01 2.60 2.24 2.11 2.10 2.08 Grenada 3.28 2.88 2.53 2.21 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 Guadeloupe 2.60 2.22 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Guatemalo 5.60 5.30 4.70 4.10 3.50 3.01 2.58 2.22 2.09 Guyana 3.06 2.64 2.28 2.15 2.13 2.12 2.10 2.09 2.07 Haiti 4.99 4.68 4.37 4.05 3.71 3.37 3.03 2.77 2.52 Honduras 5.55 5.00 4.44 3.89 3.34 2.91 2.53 2.21 2.09 Jamaica 3.00 2.57 2.20 2.07 2.07 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.05 Nartinique 2.14 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.06 Mexico 3.58 3.07 2.63 2.25 2.12 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.07 Montserrat 2.64 2.40 2.19 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Netherlands Antilles 2.15 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.06 Nicaragua 5.50 5.20 4.60 4.00 3.40 2.95 2.55 2.21 2.09 Panama 3.14 2.65 2.24 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Paraguay 4.80 4.50 4.20 3.90 3.60 3.30 2.88 2.52 2.20 Peru 4.06 3.58 3.08 2.65 2.28 2.15 2.13 2.11 2.09 St. IKitts and Nevfs 2.80 2.49 2.22 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.07 St. Lucia 3.50 3.01 2.58 2.22 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 St. Vincent and the Grenadfnes 2.75 2.46 2.19 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 2.07 Suriname 3.68 3.22 2.84 2.51 2.21 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.07 Trinidad and Tobago 2.95 2.66 2.40 2.17 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 2.06 Uruguay 2.43 2.19 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Venezula 3.77 3.36 2.92 2.55 2.22 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.07 Virgfn Islands (U.S.) 2.58 2.23 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Other Latin America 3.02 2.61 2.25 2.13 2.12 2.12 2.11 2.11 2.10 Northern America 1.87 1.99 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 Canada 1.68 1.85 1.88 1.91 1.94 1.97 2.00 2.03 2.06 Puerto Rico 2.40 2.17 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.06 United States of America 1.88 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.06 Other Northern AmerIca 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.07 2.08 Asfa 3.48 3.16 2.87 2.69 2.54 2.41 2.34 2.29 2.25 East and Southeast Asia 2.72 2.49 2.29 2.17 2.12 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.08 Broelf 4.10 3.70 3.30 2.88 2.51 2.19 2.07 2.07 2.06 Canbodaf 4.70 4.40 3.80 3.27 2.81 2.41 2.27 2.23 2.18 China (excluding Taiwan) 2.58 2.37 2.18 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 Xlii INTRODUCTION Table 12. Total Fertility Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985.89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Taiwan, China 1.95 1.75 1.75 1.80 1.86 1.91 1.95 2.00 2.05 Hong Kong 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.56 1.67 1.76 1.86 1.95 2.03 Indonesia 3.32 2.93 2.58 2.27 2.16 2.14 2.13 2.11 2.09 Japan 1.68 1.55 1.55 1.64 1.73 1.81 1.89 1.96 2.03 Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of 2.50 2.22 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 2.07 Korea, Rep. of 1.80 1.75 1.75 1.80 1.86 1.91 1.96 2.00 2.05 Lao People's Den. Rep. 6.69 6.69 6.39 5.79 5.19 4.59 3.99 3.39 2.97 Macao 2.20 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 Malaysia 4.00 3.63 3.26 2.86 2.50 2.20 2.08 2.08 2.08 Mongolia 5.00 4.49 3.98 3.47 3.00 2.59 2.24 2.12 2.10 Myarvnar 4.02 3.72 3.17 2.70 2.29 2.15 2.13 2.11 2.09 Philippines 3.94 3.31 2.91 2.55 2.24 2.13 2.11 2.10 2.09 Singapore 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.89 1.92 1.95 1.99 2.02 2.05 Thailard 2.60 2.25 2.13 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 Viet Nan 4.15 3.57 3.06 2.62 2.25 2.12 2.10 2.09 2.08 South Asia 4.64 4.13 3.62 3.26 2.94 2.66 2.53 2.45 2.37 Afghanistan 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.90 6.60 6.00 5.40 4.80 4.20 Bangladesh 5.00 4.25 3.50 3.12 2.79 2.49 2.37 2.32 2.26 Shutan 5.53 5.53 5.53 5.23 4.63 4.03 3.43 3.04 2.69 India 4.27 3.74 3.22 2.88 2.57 2.29 2.19 2.15 2.12 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 6.40 6.10 5.80 5.50 5.20 4.90 4.60 4.30 4.00 Maldives 6.50 5.97 5.43 4.90 4.36 3.83 3.29 2.88 2.52 Nepat 5.86 5.56 4.96 4.36 3.76 3.23 2.78 2.39 2.25 Pakistan 6.20 5.60 5.00 4.40 3.80 3.35 2.95 2.59 2.28 Sri Lanka 2.60 2.23 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Southwest Asia 5.05 4.75 4.37 4.01 3.64 3.35 3.08 2.83 2.60 Bahrain 4.90 4.55 4.20 3.85 3.50 3.15 2.79 2.46 2.18 Cyprus 2.35 2.16 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 Gaza Strip 6.76 6.46 5.86 5.26 4.66 4.06 3.46 2.98 2.57 Iraq 6.35 6.05 5.45 4.85 4.25 3.65 3.10 2.64 2.24 lsrael 3.01 2.70 2.42 2.17 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.07 Jordan (East Bank) 5.82 5.22 4.61 4.01 3.40 2.94 2.55 2.20 2.08 Kuwait 3.86 3.11 2.75 2.44 2.16 2.06 2.05 2.05 2.05 Lebanon 3.79 3.49 3.19 2.83 2.51 2.23 2.12 2.11 2.09 Oman 7.17 6.87 6.27 5.67 5.07 4.47 3.87 3.27 2.86 Qatar 5.84 5.54 4.94 4.34 3.74 3.14 2.78 2.46 2.17 Saudi Arabia 7.17 6.87 6.27 5.67 5.07 4.47 3.87 3.27 2.86 Syrian Arab Rep. 6.66 6.36 5.76 5.16 4.56 3.96 3.36 2.92 2.54 Turkey 3.73 3.31 2.91 2.56 2.25 2.14 2.12 2.10 2.08 United Arab Emirates 4.82 4.37 3.91 3.46 2.97 2.56 2.21 2.08 2.07 Uest Bank 5.75 5.45 4.85 4.25 3.65 3.09 2.62 2.22 2.08 Yemen, Rep. of 7.71 7.71 7.71 7.41 6.81 6.21 5.61 5.01 4.41 Europe and C.I.S. 2.04 1.99 1.96 1.98 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.04 2.06 Albanfa 3.16 2.81 2.50 2.22 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 Armenia 2.57 2.23 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Aistria 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.79 1.88 1.96 2.04 AzerbaiJan 2.90 2.54 2.21 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 2.07 Belarus 2.21 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.06 Belgium 1.55 1.75 1.80 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.01 2.05 Bulgarie 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.98 2.00 2.02 2.04 2.05 2.07 Channel Istands 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.72 1.79 1.86 1.92 1.98 2.04 Czechoslovakfa 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 Croatia 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.89 1.93 1.96 2.00 2.04 2.07 Deriark 1.55 1.70 1.75 1.81 1.86 1.91 1.95 2.00 2.05 Estonia 2.20 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 Finland 1.75 1.89 1.91 1.94 1.96 1.99 2.01 2.03 2.06 France 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.86 1.90 1.94 1.98 2.01 2.05 INTRODUCTION xliii Table 12. Total FedlIiy Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 19M-99 .2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Georgia 2.17 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Germany 1.50 1.60 1.67 1.74 1.81 1.87 1.93 1.99 2.05 Greece 1.52 1.52 1.52 1.62 1.72 1.81 1.89 1.97 2.05 Hungary 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.86 1.90 1.94 1.99 2.03 2.07 Iceland 2.05 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Ireland 2.34 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Italy 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.46 1.59 1.72 1.83 1.94 2.04 Kazakhstan 3.04 2.61 2.23 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 Kyrgyzstan 3.94 3.52 3.10 2.76 2.46 2.19 2.09 2.08 2.07 Latvia 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.04 2.04 2.05 2.05 2.06 2.06 Lithuania 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 Luxembourg 1.45 1.75 1.80 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.01 2.05 Malta 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.09 2.09 2.09 Noldova 3.10 2.63 2.23 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Netherlands 1.56 1.70 1.75 1.81 1.86 1.91 1.95 2.00 2.05 Norway 1.80 1.90 1.92 1.95 1.97 1.99 2.02 2.04 2.06 Poland 2.20 2.12 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.09 Portugal 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.66 1.74 1.82 1.90 1.98 2.05 Romania 2.31 2.15 2.13 2.12 2.11 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.09 Russian Federation 2.40 2.18 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Slovenia 1.70 1.70 1.70 1.77 1.83 1.89 1.95 2.01 2.06 Spain 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.57 1.68 1.78 1.88 1.97 2.05 Sweden 1.90 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Swftzerland 1.65 1.75 1.80 1.84 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.01 2.06 Tajfkistan 5.10 4.80 4.20 3.60 3.07 2.61 2.22 2.09 2.07 Turkmenistan 4.35 3.79 3.23 2.85 2.51 2.22 2.11 2.09 2.08 United Kingdom 1.82 1.92 1.94 1.96 1.98 2.00 2.02 2.04 2.06 Ukraine 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.06 Uzbekistan 4.29 3.79 3.30 2.89 2.52 2.21 2.09 2.08 2.07 Yugoslavia 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.09 Other Europe 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 Oceania 2.46 2.45 2.37 2.31 2.25 2.18 2.11 2.09 2.10 Australfa 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.89 1.92 1.96 1.99 2.03 2.06 Fiji 3.25 2.87 2.53 2.23 2.12 2.11 2.10 2.10 2.09 French Polynesia 3.55 3.18 2.81 2.48 2.19 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 Guam 2.90 2.53 2.20 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.07 2.07 2.07 Kiribati 4.40 4.05 3.70 3.35 2.95 2.60 2.29 2.17 2.14 Nicronesia, Fed. States of 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.58 2.21 2.08 2.07 Nei Caledonia 3.12 2.65 2.25 2.11 2.10 2.09 2.09 2.08 2.07 New Zealand 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.07 Papua New Guinea 5.25 4.95 4.35 3.75 3.21 2.75 2.35 2.21 2.19 Solomon Islands 5.80 5.50 4.80 4.10 3.40 2.95 2.55 2.21 2.09 Tonga 4.24 3.78 3.31 2.89 2.52 2.20 2.09 2.08 2.08 Vanuatu 5.83 5.53 4.93 4.33 3.73 3.13 2.78 2.46 2.19 Vestern Samoa 4.84 4.54 3.94 3.34 2.91 2.54 2.21 2.10 2.08 Other Micronesia 4.50 4.00 3.49 3.00 2.58 2.22 2.09 2.08 2.08 Other Polynesfa 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.58 2.22 2.09 2.08 2.08 2.07 XliV INTRODUCnON Table 13. Estinates and Projections of Life Expectancy at Bih for AM Counties and Economies, 1985-90 to 2025-30, Males and Females Combined (years) Country, econoay, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995I-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 World 64.9 66.1 67.3 68.6 69.6 70.6 71.7 72.9 74.1 Africa 52.8 53.8 55.1 56.3 57.7 59.2 60.8 62.4 64.2 East Africa 52.0 52.3 53.1 53.7 55.2 56.8 58.5 60.3 62.2 Botswana 66.7 67.8 69.1 70.0 70.9 71.9 72.9 73.9 75.0 Burundi 47.2 46.5 46.9 47.0 48.8 50.7 52.8 54.9 57.2 Comoros 54.0 56.1 58.3 60.6 62.3 64.0 65.8 67.7 69.6 Djibouti 47.0 49.4 51.8 53.7 55.3 57.0 58.8 60.6 62.5 Ethiopia 47.1 48.6 50.4 52.1 53.7 55.4 57.1 58.9 60.8 Kenya 58.5 59.2 59.7 59.9 61.4 62.9 64.5 66.2 68.0 Lesotho 55.1 56.8 58.8 60.8 62.1 63.4 64.9 66.3 67.9 Madagascar 50.3 51.4 52.9 54.5 55.9 57.5 59.1 60.8 62.5 HaLawi 47.1 46.0 46.0 45.8 47.7 49.8 51.9 54.2 56.6 Hauritius 68.9 70.4 72.2 73.4 74.2 74.9 75.7 76.6 77.4 Mozanbique 46.5 46.8 47.9 49.0 50.7 52.5 54.5 56.5 58.6 Namibia 56.2 58.4 60.2 61.6 62.9 64.4 65.8 67.4 69.0 Reunion 71.1 72.8 74.5 76.0 76.9 77.7 78.6 79.6 80.6 Rwanda 48.8 47.7 47.9 47.6 49.5 51.5 53.6 55.8 58.1 Seychelles 69.7 71.4 73.1 74.6 75.5 76.5 77.5 78.5 79.7 Somalia 47.3 48.8 50.5 52.3 53.9 55.6 57.3 59.1 61.0 South Africa 60.5 62.9 65.2 67.0 68.1 69.2 70.4 71.6 72.8 Swaziland 55.5 57.2 59.1 60.9 62.2 63.6 65.1 66.5 68.1 Tanzania 48.3 47.0 46.9 46.5 48.3 50.3 52.4 54.6 56.9 Uganda 48.3 46.0 45.3 44.1 46. 48.2 50.4 52.7 55.3 Zaire 52.0 52.0 52.8 53.6 55.3 57.0 58.9 60.8 62.8 Zambia 52.7 47.8 47.3 46. 48.1 50.3 52.5 55.0 57.7 Zimbabwe 62.3 59.9 59.6 59.6 61.2 62.9 64.7 66.6 68.6 Other East Africa 54.0 56.2 58.5 60.8 62.5 64.2 66.0 67.8 69.7 West Africa 50.0 51.5 53.1 54.6 56.1 57.7 59.4 61.1 63.0 Angola 44.5 46.8 49.1 51.1 52.8 54.6 56.4 58.2 60.2 Benin 50.3 50.6 50.8 50.2 52.0 53.9 55.9 57.9 60.1 Burkina Faso 47.2 47.9 48.8 49.4 51.1 52.9 54.8 56.8 58.9 Cameroon 56.2 57.5 58.9 60.0 61.4 62.9 64.4 65.9 67.6 Cape Verde 66.0 66.7 67.4 67.9 68.9 70.0 71.2 72.4 73.6 Central African Rep. 49.9 49.0 49.2 49.2 51.0 52.9 54.9 57.0 59.3 Chad 45.5 48.1 50.8 53.3 54.9 56.5 58.2 60.0 61.8 Congo, People's Rep. of the 52.6 53.3 54.6 55.8 57.5 59.2 61.0 62.8 64.8 Cote d'ivoire 55.8 55.0 55.3 55.5 57.1 58.8 60.6 62.5 64.5 Equatorial Guinea 45.4 47.7 49.9 51.8 53.5 55.2 57.0 58.9 60.9 Gabon 52.4 54.0 55.9 57.7 59.2 60.8 62.3 64.0 65.7 G&vbia, The 43.4 44.8 46.2 47.6 49.3 51.1 53.0 54.9 56.9 Ghana 54.0 55.1 56.6 57.9 59.4 60.9 62.5 64.1 65.8 Guinea 42.5 43.9 45.5 47.2 48.8 50.6 52.4 54.3 56.3 Guinea-Bissau 39.0 38.7 39.2 39.3 41.1 43.0 45.1 47.2 49.5 Liberia 53.1 55.1 57.0 58.5 60.0 61.5 63.1 64.8 66.5 Malf 47.2 48.4 49.9 51.4 53.1 54.8 56.6 58.5 60.4 Mauritania 45.9 47.1 48.6 50.2 51.8 53.5 55.3 57.1 59.0 Niger 44.5 46.2 48.0 49.8 51.4 53.2 55.0 56.9 58.8 Nigeria 48.4 50.2 52.2 54.0 55.5 57.2 58.9 60.6 62.5 Sao Tome and Principe 65.5 67.6 69.7 71.6 72.7 73.9 75.1 76.3 S.5 Senegal 46.6 47.7 49.1 50.4 52.0 53.7 55.5 57.4 59.4 Sierra Leone 40.9 42.8 44.8 46.6 48.3 50.1 51.9 53.9 55.9 Togo 53.0 54.1 55.4 56.5 58.0 59.6 61.3 63.0 64.8 Other West Africa 60.4 63.1 65.6 68.0 70.0 72.2 74.5 77.0 79.7 North Africa 59.0 60.8 62.7 64.6 66.0 67.4 68.9 70.5 72.1 Algeria 64.0 66.4 68.6 70.8 72.0 73.2 74.5 75.8 77.1 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 59.0 61.0 63.1 65.2 66.7 68.3 69.9 71.5 73.2 INTRODUCTION xIv Table 13. Life Expectancy at Birth (continued) Country economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Libya 60.8 63.5 66.0 68.4 69.7 71.0 72.4 73.8 75.3 Morocco 60.8 62.5 64.3 66.3 67.7 69.2 70.7 72.3 73.9 Sudan 49.7 50.8 52.1 53.3 54.9 56.6 58.3 60.1 62.0 Tunisia 65.7 67.4 69.2 70.9 72.1 73.3 74.6 75.9 77.3 Other North Africa 47.5 49.5 s1.7 54.1 55.9 57.9 59.9 61.9 64.1 America 70.3 71.6 72.9 74.2 75.1 76.0 77.0 78.0 79.1 Latin America and Caribbean 66.8 68.4 70.0 71.6 72.7 73.8 75.0 76.2 77.5 Antigua and Barbuda 73.1 74.2 75.4 76.5 77.3 78.2 79.0 80.0 80.9 Argentina 70.6 71.7 72.9 74.2 75.1 76.1 77.2 78.3 79.4 Bahamas, The 67.9 69.6 71.3 73.0 74.0 75.1 76.2 77.4 78.6 Barbados 74.3 75.6 76.9 78.1 78.8 79.5 80.2 81.0 81.8 Beltze 66.7 68.7 70.6 72.4 73.5 74.6 75.8 77.0 78.2 Bolivia 58.8 60.7 62.7 64.8 66.2 67.7 69.2 70.7 72.4 Brazil 64.9 67.1 69.1 71.1 72.2 73.4 74.7 75.9 77.3 chile 71.5 72.3 73.3 74.4 75.3 76.3 77.3 78.4 79.6 Colombia 68.2 69.2 70.4 71.7 72.8 74.0 75.2 76.5 77.8 Costa Rica 74.6 75.5 76.4 77.4 78.2 78.9 79.8 80.6 81.5 Cuba 75.2 76.3 77.3 78.4 79.1 79.8 80.5 81.2 82.0 Dominica 74.1 75.4 76.7 77.9 78.6 79.4 80.2 81.0 81.8 Dominican Rep. 66.0 67.7 69.5 71.2 72.4 73.6 74.8 76.1 77.4 Ecuador 65.5 66.5 67.9 69.3 70.6 71.9 73.2 74.6 76.1 El Salvador 62.2 64.5 66.8 69.0 70.3 71.6 72.9 74.3 75.8 Grenada 68.6 70.5 72.3 74.0 75.0 76.0 77.0 78.1 79.3 Guadeloupe 73.5 75.0 76.4 77.6 78.4 79.1 79.9 80.8 81.6 Guatemla 62.0 63.9 65.8 67.8 69.1 70.5 71.9 73.4 74.9 Guyana 63.2 64.8 66.6 68.4 69.7 71.0 72.4 73.9 75.4 Haiti 54.0 54.6 54.2 53.2 55.0 56.8 58.7 60.7 62.9 Honduras 64.0 65.5 67.1 68.8 70.1 71.4 72.8 74.2 75.7 Jamaica 72.6 73.6 74.7 75.9 76.7 77.6 78.6 79.5 80.6 Nartinfque 75.3 76.6 77.9 79.0 79.7 80.3 81.0 81.7 82.4 Mexico 68.9 70.2 71.6 73.0 74.1 75.2 76.3 77.5 78.7 Montserrat 69.8 71.7 73.4 75.0 75.9 76.9 77.8 78.9 79.9 Netherlands Antilles 76.0 77.6 79.0 80.2 80.7 81.3 81.9 82.4 83.0 Nicaragua 63.3 65.7 68.0 70.2 71.4 72.7 74.0 75.3 76.8 Panama 72.1 73.1 74.2 75.3 76.2 77.2 78.1 79.2 80.2 Paraguay 66.9 67.6 68.6 69.8 71.0 72.2 73.5 74.9 76.4 Peru 61.4 63.6 65.8 67.9 69.2 70.6 72.0 73.5 75.0 St. Kitts and Nevis 68.5 70.4 n.3 74.0 75.0 76.0 77.1 78.2 79.3 St. Lucia 70.5 72.2 73.9 75.5 76.3 77.3 78.2 79.2 80.2 St. Vineent and the Grenadines 69.2 71.1 72.9 74.5 75.4 76.4 77.4 78.5 79.6 Suriname 66.7 68.6 70.6 n.4 73.4 74.6 75.7 76.9 78.2 Trinidad and Tobago 70.2 71.6 73.0 74.4 75.4 76.4 77.4 78.5 79.6 Uruguay 72.0 73.7 75.2 76.7 77.5 78.3 79.2 80.1 81.0 Venezuela 69.7 70.4 71.5 n.6 73.7 74.8 75.9 77.1 78.4 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 73.1 74.8 76.3 77.8 78.5 79.3 80.0 80.8 81.7 Other Latin America 66.5 68.1 69.6 70.9 71.4 71.9 72.5 73.0 73.5 Northern America 75.7 76.7 77.8 78.8 79.5 80.2 80.9 81.6 82.3 Canada 76.7 77.8 79.0 80.0 80.5 81.1 81.7 82.3 82.9 Puerto Rico 74.9 76.3 77.5 78.7 79.4 80.1 80.8 81.5 82.3 United States of America 75.4 76.5 77.5 78.6 79.2 79.9 80.6 81.4 82.1 Other Northern America 69.7 71.0 72.1 73.1 73.5 73.8 74.1 74.5 74.9 Asfa 63.9 65.3 66.9 68.5 69.6 70.8 72.1 73.5 74.9 East and Southeast Asia 68.4 69.8 71.2 72.7 73.7 74.7 75.8 77.0 78.3 Brunef 74.4 76.2 77.8 79.1 79.7 80.4 81.0 81.7 82.4 Caibodia 48.4 51.6 54.9 58.0 59.8 61.6 63.5 65.4 67.5 China (excluding Taiwan) 69.5 70.6 71.9 73.3 74.3 75.4 76.5 77.7 78.9 XMVi INTRODUCTION Table 13. Life Expectancy at Birth (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Taiwan, China 74.0 74.9 75.9 77.0 77.8 78.6 79.4 80.3 81.2 Hong Kong 77.0 78.2 79.3 80.3 80.8 81.4 81.9 82.5 83.1 Indonesia 60.2 63.0 65.6 68.1 69.4 70.7 72.1 73.6 75.2 Japan 78.2 79.2 80.2 81.1 81.6 82.1 82.6 83.1 83.6 Korea, Den. People's Rep. of 69.4 71.3 73.1 74.8 75.7 76.7 77.7 78.7 79.8 Korea, Rep. of 69.3 70.8 72.4 74.0 74.9 75.9 77.0 78.1 79.3 Lao People's Dem. Rep. 48.5 50.2 52.1 54.2 56.1' 58.0 59.9 62.0 64.2 Macao 70.8 73.1 75.1 76.8 77.6 78.4 79.3 80.2 81.1 Malaysia 69.2 70.5 71.8 73.2 74.2 75.3 76.4 77.6 78.8 Mongotia 61.2 63.5 65.7 67.9 69.2 70.6 72.0 73.5 75.0 Myarmar 60.0 62.4 64.7 66.9 68.3 69.8 71.3 72.8 74.5 Philippines 63.4 65.0 66.6 68.3 69.6 70.9 72.3 73.8 75.3 Singapore 73.5 74.8 76.1 77.3 78.0 78.8 79.6 80.5 81.4 Thailand 65.0 66.9 68.8 70.7 71.8 73.0 74.3 75.6 77.0 Viet NaW 65.8 67.1 68.6 70.1 71.3 72.6 73.8 75.2 76.6 South Asia 57.0 58.7 60.6 62.5 64.1 65.6 67.3 69.0 70.8 Afghanistan 41.5 42.2 43.4 44.9 46.7 48.7 50.7 52.8 55.1 Bangladesh 50.8 52.1 53.8 55.8 57.6 59.5 61.4 63.4 65.5 Bhutan 47.9 49.1 50.7 52.5 54.4 56.3 58.3 60.4 62.6 India 57.9 59.8 61.8 63.9 65.4 66.9 68.5 70.2 71.9 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 62.0 63.6 65.3 67.1 68.5 69.9 71.4 72.9 74.5 Maldives 60.4 62.5 64.5 66.6 68.0 69.5 71.0 72.5 74.2 Nepal 51.0 52.6 54.6 56.8 58.5 60.4 62.3 64.3 66.3 Pakistan 55.0 56.3 57.9 59.7 61.4 63.2 65.0 66.9 68.8 Sri Lanka 70.3 71.6 73.0 74.4 75.3 76.3 77.3 78.4 79.6 Southwest Asia 64.1 65.3 67.2 68.8 69.9 71.0 72.2 73.5 74.9 Bahrain 68.3 69.6 71.0 72.5 73.6 74.7 75.8 77.1 78.3 Cyprus 75.7 76.9 78.1 79.1 79.8 80.4 81.1 81.8 82.5 Gaza Strip 63.0 64.9 66.9 68.9 70.1 71.4 72.8 74.2 75.8 Iraq 63.9 62.4 66.5 68.1 69.4 70.8 722 73.7 75.2 Israel 75.6 76.6 77.6 78.6 79.3 80.0 80.7 81.4 82.1 Jordan (East Bank) 65.9 68.1 70.1 72.0 73.1 74.2 75.4 76.7 77.9 Kuwait 73.3 74.7 76.0 77.3 78.0 78.8 79.6 80.5 81.4 Lebanon 65.0 65.7 66.8 68.1 69.4 70.7 72.1 73.6 75.2 Oman 63.9 66.8 69.3 71.6 72.7 73.8 75.0 76.3 77.7 Qatar 69.3 70.8 72.4 74.0 74.9 76.0 77.0 78.1 79.3 Saudi Arabia 63.4 65.2 67.0 68.8 70.1 71.4 72.8 74.2 75.7 Syrian Arab Rep. 65.0 66.8 68.7 70.5 71.7 73.0 74.2 75.6 76.9 Turkey 65.6 67.3 69.0 70.8 72.0 73.2 74.4 75.7 77.1 United Arab Emirates 70.7 72.0 73.4 74.8 75.7 76.7 77.7 78.8 79.9 West Bank 65.9 67.4 69.1 70.7 71.8 73.1 74.3 75.6 77.0 Yemen, Rep. of 47.8 48.9 50.3 52.1 53.9 55.8 57.9 60.0 62.2 Europe and C.I.S. 73.1 74.4 75.7 76.9 77.6 78.4 79.2 80.1 81.0 Albania 71.7 72.8 74.0 75.2 76.1 77.1 78.1 79.1 80.1 Armenia 71.5 73.1 74.6 76.0 76.9 77.7 78.7 79.6 80.6 Austria 75.1 76.6 77.9 79.1 79.7 80.4 81.1 81.8 82.5 Azerbaijan 70.0 71.6 73.2 74.6 75.5 76.5 77.5 78.6 79.7 Belarus 72.1 73.7 75.1 76.4 77.3 78.1 7.o 79.9 80.9 Belgium 75.4 76.8 78.0 79.1 79.7 80.4 81.1 81.8 82.5 Bulgaria 72.0 73.1 74.2 75.5 76.3 77.2 78.2 79.2 80.3 Channel Islands 76.2 77.4 78.5 79.5 80.1 80.7 81.4 82.0 82.7 Czechoslovakia 71.2 71.8 72.7 73.7 74.7 75.7 76.8 77.9 79.1 Croatia 71.6 73.5 75.3 76.8 77.6 78.4 79.3 80.2 81.1 Denmark 74.8 75.6 76.5 77.5 78.2 79.0 79.8 80.6 81.5 Estonfa 69.9 71.9 73.7 75.4 76.3 77.2 78.1 79.1 80.2 Finland 74.9 76.1 77.2 78.3 79.0 79.7 80.4 81.2 82.0 France 76.1 77.3 78.5 79.5 80.1 80.8 81.4 82.0 82.7 INTRODUCTION xlvii Table 13. Life Expectancy at Birth (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 199f-99 .2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Georgia 71.5 73.0 74.4 75.8 76.7 77.6 78.5 79.5 80.5 Germany 75.3 76.8 78.2 79.4 80.0 80.7 81.3 82.0 82.6 Greece 76.4 77.6 78.7 79.8 80.4 81.0 81.6 82.2 82.8 Hungary 70.2 71.0 72.1 73.3 74.3 75.3 76.4 77.6 78.8 Icelatd 77.5 78.4 79.2 80.1 80.6 81.2 81.8 82.4 83.0 Ireland 73.8 74.7 75.8 76.9 77.7 78.5 79.3 80.2 81.2 Italy 76.8 77.9 78.9 79.9 80.4 81.0 81.6 82.2 82.9 Kazakhstan 67.4 69.1 70.7 72.4 73.4 74.5 75.6 76.8 78.0 Kyrgyzstan 68.0 69.3 70.8 72.2 73.3 74.4 75.5 76.7 78.0 Latvia 69.9 71.9 73.7 75.4 76.2 77.1 i8.1 79.1 80.1 Lithuania 71.1 73.0 74.8 76.3 77.1 78.0 78.9 79.8 80.8 Luxeflbourg 74.3 75.4 76.4 77.5 78.2 79.0 79.8 80.7 81.5 Matta 72.7 73.8 75.0 76.2 77.0 77.9 78.8 79.7 80.7 Noldova 68.1 69.5 71.0 72.5 73.6 74.6 75.8 77.0 78.2 Netherlands 76.6 77.4 78.2 79.1 79.7 80.4 81.0 81.7 82.5 Norway 76.8 77.6 78.5 79.4 80.1 80.7 81.3 82.0 82.7 Poland 70.9 71.5 72.3 73.3 74.3 75.4 76.5 77.6 78.9 Portugal 74.1 75.5 76.7 77.9 78.7 79.4 80.2 81.0 81.8 Romania 69.2 69.8 70.8 71.9 73.0 74.1 75.3 76.5 77.9 Russian Federation 70.1 72.2 74.0 75.7 76.5 77.4 78.4 79.3 80.3 Stovenia 72.3 74.2 75.8 77.4 78.1 78.9 79.7 80.6 81.5 Spain 75.9 76.4 77.1 78.0 78.7 79.4 80.2 81.0 81.8 Sweden 77.1 77.9 78.8 79.6 80.2 80.8 81.4 82.1 82.7 Switzerland 77.3 78.4 79.5 80.4 81.0 81.5 82.1 82.6 83.2 Tajfkistan 68.4 69.6 70.9 72.3 73.4 74.5 75.7 76.9 78.1 Turkmenistan 64.8 66.4 68.1 69.8 71.0 72.3 73.6 74.9 76.3 United Kingdom 75.0 76.0 77.0 78.1 78.8 79.5 80.3 81.0 81.8 Ukraine 71.7 73.0 74.3 75.7 76.5 77.4 78.4 79.3 80.4 Uzbekistan 67.9 69.3 70.8 72.3 73.4 74.5 75.6 76.8 78.1 Yugoslavia 70.4 72.0 73.6 75.1 76.0 77.0 78.0 79.0 80.1 Other Europe 74.9 75.3 75.7 76.0 76.1 76.3 76.4 76.5 76.7 Oceania 71.9 72.9 73.9 74.9 75.7 76.4 77.3 78.2 79.1 Australia 76.1 77.1 78.1 79.0 79.7 80.3 81.0 81.7 82.4 Fiji 63.8 65.3 67.0 68.7 69.9 71.2 72.6 74.1 75.6 French Polynesia 71.7 73.1 74.5 75.8 76.7 77.6 78.5 79.5 80.5 auam 72.1 73.4 74.8 76.1 77.0 77.8 78.7 79.7 80.7 Kiribati 53.9 56.0 58.2 60.5 62.1 63.8 65.6 67.5 69.5 Nicronesia, Fed. States of 70.0 70.8 71.9 73.1 74.1 75.2 76.3 77.5 78.7 New Caledonia 67.9 69.8 71.7 73.4 74.4 75.4 76.5 77.7 78.9 New Zealand 74.8 75.8 76.9 78.0 78.7 79.4 80.2 81.0 81.8 Papua New Guinea 53.9 55.2 56.9 58.7 60.3 62.1 63.9 65.9 68.0 Solomon Islands 63.3 65.3 67.4 69.4 70.6 71.9 73.3 74.6 76.1 Tonga 65.7 67.9 69.9 71.9 73.0 74.1 75.3 76.6 77.9 Vanuatu 63.4 65.2 67.2 69.0 70.3 71.6 73.0 74.4 75.8 Western Samoa 65.4 66.6 68.0 69.5 70.8 72.0 73.4 74.7 76.2 Other Micronesia 66.9 68.6 70.3 72.0 73.1 74.2 75.4 76.7 78.0 Other Polynesia 69.7 71.3 72.8 74.3 75-3 76.3 77.3 78.4 79.5 XiViiil INTRODUCTION Table 14. Es*Iates and Projections of Infant Mortaly Rate for All Counotks and Economies, 1985-90 to 2025-30 (per usand live biths) Country, economy, or region IM85-69 1990-94 1M-ff99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 World 69 62 56 So 45 40 35 29 24 Africa 105 96 89 79 74 68 62 56 49 East Africa 109 104 97 8T 80 74 68 62 55 Botswana 42 35 29 24 22 20 18 16 14 Bururdi 110 105 96 84 78 73 67 61 55 Comoros 99 87 7s 63 sT 50 44 37 31 Djibouti 122 111 S 67 80 73 67 60 53 Ethiopia 137 128 117 105 97 89 81 73 65 Kenya 72 64 56 49 44 40 36 31 27 Lesotho 100 89 78 66 60 54 48 43 37 Madagascar 120 113 103 91 84 77 70 63 56 Malawi 150 149 143 133 122 112 101 90 s0 Mauritius 23 19 1s 13 12 11 10 9 8 Mozambique 141 135 125 112 104 95 86 78 69 Namibia 106 96 86 75 68 61 54 47 40 ReunIon 14 12 10 8 8 7 6 5 4 Rwanda 122 119 1I1 100 92 84 77 69 61 Seychelles 18 16 14 11 10 9 7 6 5 Somalta 132 122 109 97 89 82 75 68 61 South Africa 72 61 52 43 39 35 31 27 23 Swaziland 118 108 97 85 7r 69 61 54 46 Tanzania 115 115 108 98 91 84 76 69 62 Uganda 115 118 113 103 96 a8 80 72 65 Zaire 98 91 8l 70 64 58 53 47 41 Zambia S0 84 84 73 67 61 54 48 42 Zimbabwe 52 47 43 36 32 29 26 23 20 Other East Africa 99 87 75 63 57 S0 44 37 30 West Africa 113 103 93 82 76 70 64 58 52 Angola 137 125 112 99 92 85 77 70 63 Benin 116 111 104 95 87 79 72 64 57 Burkina Faso 138 132 123 112 104 95 87 78 69 Cameroon 94 85 74 64 58 52 47 41 35 Cape Verde 44 39 33 28 26 23 21 18 16 Central African Rep. 104 99 90 so 74 68 62 56 50 Chad 132 120 107 94 87 80 73 65 58 Congo, People*s Rep. of the 119 114 104 94 as 77 69 60 52 Cote d'ivoire 96 94 86 75 69 62 55 48 42 Equatorial Guinea 127 116 104 92 85 78 71 64 58 Gabon 103 93 81 69 63 s7 51 46 40 Gambia, The 143 132 120 107 100 92 85 78 70 Ghana 90 81 71 61 56 51 46 40 35 Guinea 145 133 121 107 100 94 87 80 73 Guinea-BIssau 151 147 138 126 l18 I11 104 97 90 Liberia 142 132 120 108 98 88 78 68 58 Mali 169 164 157 149 136 124 112 100 87 Mauritanta 127 117 106 93 S7 80 74 68 61 Niger 135 123 111 go 91 84 77 71 64 Nigeria 105 94 83 71 66 61 56 51 46 Sao Tome and Principe 74 65 56 46 38 30 22 14 6 Senegal 87 76 66 56 52 49 46 43 40 Sierra Leone 154 142 130 117 109 102 94 86 78 Togo 94 J4 74 63 58 53 48 42 37 Other West Africa 72 61 51 42 34 27 19 12 4 North Africa 8O 70 60 51 45 40 34 28 22 Algeria 74 62 51 41 35 28 21 14 7 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 73 61 51 41 37 32 27 22 18 INTRODUCTION Xlix Table 14. Infant Mortality Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 '2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Libya 82 69 57 47 40 32 25 18 11 Morocco 73 63 53 44 38 33 27 21 15 Sudan 108 99 88 76 71 65 60 54 48 Tunisia 50 41 33 27 23 19 15 1t 7 Other North Africa 120 106 93 80 74 69 64 58 53 America 42 36 31 25 22 18 14 10 7 Latin America and Caribbean 53 46 39 32 27 23 18 13 8 Antigua and Barbuda 22 18 14 12 10 9 7 5 4 Argentina 32 27 23 18 16 13 10 7 5 Bahamas, The 28 23 19 15 13 11 9 7 5 Barbados 12 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 Belize 50 41 33 27 23 19 14 10 6 Bolivia 98 88 76 65 56 48 39 30 21 Brazil 63 54 45 37 31 25 19 13 7 Chile 18 16 13 11 10 8 7 6 4 Colombia 40 36 30 25 21 17 14 10 6 Costa Rica 18 16 13 11 9 8 6 5 3 Cuba 13 11 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 Dominica 18 15 13 11 9 8 6 5 3 Dominican Rep. 61 53 44 36 30 24 18 12 6 Ecuador 58 53 45 38 32 26 20 14 8 El Salvador 59 49 40 33 28 23 19 14 10 Grenada 34 29 24 19 16 13 11 8 5 Guadeloupe 16 14 12 10 9 7 6 5 3 Guatemala 68 58 49 40 34 28 23 17 11 Guyana 56 48 40 33 28 24 19 15 10 Haiti 97 93 87 79 72 65 58 51 44 Honduras 69 61 52 44 37 30 23 16 9 Jamaica 17 15 13 11 9 8 7 5 4 MartInique 11 9 8 6 6 .5 4 4 3 Mexico 43 37 30 25 21 17 13 9 5 Montserrat 32 28 23 19 16 13 10 7 4 Netherlands Antilles 14 12 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 Nicaragua 62 51 41 33 28 23 18 12 7 Panama 23 19 16 13 11 10 8 6 4 Paraguay 34 30 26 21 19 16 13 10 8 Peru 76 65 54 "5 38 31 24 17 11 rt. Kitts and Nevis 40 34 28 23 19 16 12 8 5 St. Lucia 21 17 14 12 10 9 7 6 4 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 25 20 16 13 12 10 8 6 5 Suriname 42 37 31 25 21 17 14 10 6 Trinidad and Tobago 28 23 19 15 13 11 9 7 4 Uruguay 24 18 15 12 10 9 7 5 4 Venezuela 36 33 28 23 20 16 13 9 5 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 19 17 14 12 10 8 7 5 3 Other Latin America 43 35 28 23 21 20 19 17 16 Northern America 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 Canada 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Puerto Rico 14 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 United States of Amerfca 10 9 8 7 6 5. 5 4 3 Other Northern America 19 16 13 11 11 11 10 10 10 Asia 70 62 54 47 42 36 30 24 18 East and Southeast Asia 39 32 26 21 18 15 13 10 7 Brunei 10 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Cambodia 130 108 89 74 67 60 53 46 39 China (excluding Taiwan) 32 27 22 18 15 13 10 8 5 I INTRODUCTION Table 14. Infant Mortality Rate (continued) Country, economy, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Taiwan, China 17 15 13 11 9 8 6 5 4 Hong Kong 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 Indonesia 71 55 43 34 29 25 20 15 10 Japan 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Korea, Den. People's Rep. of 28 24 20 17 14 12 9 7 4 Korea, Rep. of 20 15 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 Lao People's Dem. Rep. 110 98 85 n 68 64 60 56 52 Macao 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 Malaysia 18 15 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 Mongolia 68 58 48 39 34 28 22 16 10 Myarar 70 60 50 41 36 30 25 20 15 Philippines 45 38 31 26 23 19 16 13 10 Singapore 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 Thailand 31 25 20 16 14 13 11 9 7 Viet Nam 46 39 32 26 23 19 15 11 7 South Asia 102 93 82 71 63 54 46 37 28 Afghanistan 1in 168 161 153 141 129 118 106 94 Bangladesh 110 101 90 78 71 65 59 53 46 Bhutan 127 119 109 97 89 81 74 66 59 India 98 88 76 65 57 48 39 31 22 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 93 85 75 64 54 43 33 22 11 Maldives 77 65 55 45 39 32 26 20 14 Nepal 127 117 106 93 83 73 63 53 43 Pakistan 107 100 90 79 69 60 51 42 33 Sri Lanka 22 18 14 12 10 9 7 6 4 Southwest Asia 69 62 54 46 41 36 30 25 19 Bahrain 35 30 25 20 17 14 11 8 5 Cyprus 12 9 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 Gaza Strip 59 48 39 32 27 22 18 13 9 Iraq 69 63 55 46 39 32 24 17 10 Israel 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 Jordan (East Bank) 57 47 39 31 26 21 16 11 6 Kuwait 16 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 Lebanon 48 44 39 32 28 24 19 15 10 Oman 40 29 22 17 15 13 11 8 6 Qatar 31 25 20 17 14 12 9 7 5 Saudi Arabia 71 61 52 43 36 29 22 16 9 Syrian Arab Rep. 48 39 32 25 22 18 14 11 7 Turkey 65 56 47 39 32 26 19 13 7 United Arab Emirates 26 21 17 14 12 10 8 6 4 West Bank 50 44 36 30 25 21 16 11 7 Yemen, Rep. of 128 121 111 99 91 84 76 68 61 Europe and C.I.S. 18 15 13 11 9 8 7 5 4 Albania 28 30 25 20 17 14 11 7 4 Armenfa 22 18 15 12 11 9 7 6 4 Austria 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 Azerbaijan 28 23 19 16 14 11 9 7 5 Belarus 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Belgium 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 Bulgaria 15 14 12 10 9 8 6 5 4 Channel Islands 9 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 Czechoslovakia 13 11 10 8 8 7 6 6 5 Croatia 15 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 Dermark 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 Estonia 15 13 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 Finland 7 6 5 c 5 4 4 4 3 France 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 INTRODUCTION II Table 14. Infant Mortality Rate (continued) Country, econom#, or region 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 2015-19 2020-24 2025-29 Georgia 22 18 14 12 10 9 7 6 4 Germany 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Greece 13 11 9 7 7 6 5 3 Hungary 17 14 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 Iceland 7 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Iretand 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 Italy 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 Kazakhstan 27 23 19 16 14 12 10 9 7 Kyrgyzatan 34 29 24 20 17 14 12 9 7 Latvia 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 Lithuania 11 10 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 Luxembourg 9 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 MaLta 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 MoLdova 24 19 15 12 11 10 8 7 6 Netherlands 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 Norway 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 Potand 18 16 13 11 10 9 8 6 5 Portugat 14 11 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 Romania 25 27 23 19 16 14 11 9 6 Russian Federation 19 16 13 11 10 8 7 6 4 Stovenia 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 Spain 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 Sweden 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 Switzerland 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Tajikjstan 47 42 35 29 24 20 15 10 6 Turkmenistan 54 50 43 36 31 26 21 16 10 United Kingdom 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 Ukraine 15 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 Uzbekistan 39 34 28 23 20 16 13 9 6 Yugoslavia 28 123 19 16 13 11 9 6 4 Other Europe 14 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 Oceania 27 24 20 16 15 15 14 13 12 Australia 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 Fiji 27 22 18 15 14 13 12 11 10 French Polynesia 23 19 15 12 11 9 7 6 4 Guam 12 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 Kiribat; 62 53 45 37 36 35 33 32 31 Micronesia, Fed. States of 28 25 21 17 15 12 10 8 5 New Caledonia 36 29 24 19 16 14 11 8 5 New Zealand 11 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 Papua New Gufnea 63 54 45 37 37 37 37 37 36 Solomon Islands 53 44 35 29 24 20 16 12 8 Tonga 27 19 15 12 11 9 8 7 6 Vanuatu 75 65 55 46 39 31 24 16 9 Western Samoa 50 44 37 31 26 22 17 13 9 Other Micronesie 32 26 21 17 15 13 10 8 6 Other Polynesis 26 21 17 14 12 10 8 6 5 Iji INTRODUCTON Iable 15. Stationary Population, Momentum, and Year that Net Reproducton Rate Reaches I for All Countries and Economies Stationary Ratio Popu- Year Stationary Ratio Popu- Year popuLation to lation when poputation to lation when (millions) 1990 momentaun NRR=1 (milLions) 1990 momentum NRR=1 Wortd 12186 2.3 1.4 2060 North Africa 425 3.0 1.6 2050 Algeria 78 3.1 1.7 2020 Africa 3028 4.7 1.5 2055 Egypt, Arab Rep. of 120 2.3 1.5 2015 Libya 35 7.8 1.6 2050 East Africa 1498 5.5 1.5 2055 Morocco 69 2.8 1.6 2020 Botswana 4 2.9 1.8 2015 Sudan 101 4.0 1.5 2035 Burundi 32 5.9 1.5 2045 Tunisia 18 2.2 1.6 2010 Comoros 3 5.4 1.6 2035 Other North Africa 1 4.9 1.4 2040 Djibouti 2 4.9 1.4 2040 Ethiopia 417 8.1 1.5 2050 America 1311 1.8 1.4 2035 Kenya 124 5.1 1.7 9035 Lesotho 6 3.4 1.5 2025 Latin America and Carib. 938 2.1 1.5 2035 Madagascar 45 3.9 1.5 2030 Antigua and Barbuda 0 1.8 1.7 2030 Matawi 62 7.3 1.6 2050 Argentina 53 1.7 1.3 2005 Mauritius 2 1.4 1.4 2030 Bahamas, The 0 1.9 1.5 1990 Mozambique 96 6.1 1.4 2045 Barbados 0 1.2 1.3 2030 Namibia 7 4.0 1.6 2030 Betize 1 3.1 1.8 2020 Reunion 1 1.8 1.5 1995 Botivia 21 2.9 1.6 2020 Rwanda 65 9.1 1.6 2055 Brazil 304 2.0 1.5 2005 SeycheLles 0 1.8 1.6 2005 Chite 23 1.7 1.4 2000 SomaLia 47 6.0 1.5 2045 Colombia 62 1.9 1.6 2000 South Africa 96 2.7 1.5 2020 Costa Rica 6 2.0 1.6 2005 Swaziland 4 5.1 1.7 2035 Cuba 14 1.3 1.3 2030 Tanzania 144 5.9 1.6 2045 Dominica 0 1.9 1.8 2000 Uganda 91 5.6 1.6 2045 Dominican Rep. 14 2.0 1.6 2005 Zaire III 4.6 1.6 2035 Ecuador 24 2.3 1.6 2010 Zambia 41 5.1 1.6 2040 EL SaLvador 13 2.5 1.7 2015 Zimbabwe 28 2.8 1.7 2015 Grenada 0 1.8 1.6 2005 Other East Africa 0 5.4 1.6 2035 Guadeloupe 1 1.5 1.4 1995 Guatemala 33 3.5 1.7 2025 West Africa 1105 4.7 1.5 2055 Guyana 1 1.7 1.5 2000 Angola 61 6.1 1.4 2045 Haiti 19 3.0 1.5 2035 Benin 19 4.0 1.6 2035 Honduras 18 3.5 1.7 2025 Burkina Faso 48 5.3 1.5 2045 Jamaica 4 1.6 1.6 2000 Cameroon 53 4.5 1.6 2035 Martinique 1 1.4 1.3 1990 Cape Verde 1 3.8 1.8 2025 Mexico 184 2.1 1.7 2005 Central African Rep. 11 3.7 1.4 2035 Montserrat 0 1.5 1.4 2000 Chad 28 4.9 1.4 2040 Netherlands AntiLles 0 1.6 1.5 1990 Congo, People's Rep. of 14 6.3 1.6 2045 Nicaragua 14 3.6 1.7 2025 Cote d'ivoire 63 5.3 1.6 2040 Panama 5 1.9 1.6 2000 Equatorial Guinea 2 3.6 1.3 2035 Paraguay 16 3.7 1.6 2030 Gabon 6 5.4 1.4 2045 Peru 50 2.3 1.5 2010 Gambia, The 5 5.6 1.4 2045 St. Kitts and Nevis 0 1.3 1.6 2000 Ghana 62 1.6 2030 St. Lucia 0 2.1 1.7 2005 Guinea 33 5.7 1.5 2045 St. Vincent & Grenadines 0 1.9 1.6 2000 Gufnea-Bissau 4 1.3 2040 Suriname 1 2.2 1.6 2010 Liberia 11 1.6 2035 Trinidad and Tobago 2 1.7 1.5 2005 MaLi 57 6.8 1.5 2050 Uruguay 4 1.4 1.2 1995 Mauritania 14 7.0 1.4 2050 Venezuela 45 2.3 1.6 2010 Niger 72 9.4 1.5 2055 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 0 1.7 1.5 19g5 Nigeria 398 1.6 2035 Other Latin America 0 1.8 1.5 2000 Sao Tome and Principe 0 1.6 2025 Senegal 43 5.8 1.4 2045 Northern America 373 1.3 1.1 2030 Sierra Leone 23 1.3 2045 Canada 34 1.3 1.1 2030 Togo 17 4.8 1.6 2035 Puerto Rico 5 1.3 1.3 1995 Other West Africa 0 2.0 1.4 2005 United States of America 334 1.3 1.1 2030 Other Northern America 0 1.2 1.2 2030 INTRODUCTION liii Table 15. (continued) Stationary Ratio Popu- Year Stationary Ratfo Popu- Year poputatIon to lation when population to lation when (millions) 1990 momantum NRRI (mtillions) 1990 momentun NRR=1 Asia 6846 2.2 1.4 2060 Belgium 10 1.0 1.0 2030 Bulgaria 9 1.0 1.0 2030 East and Southeast Asia 3086 1.7 1.4 2040 Channel Islandb 0 1.1 1.0 2030 Brunei 1 2.4 1.5 2015 Czechoslovakia 19 1.2 1.1 2030 Cambodia 20 2.3 1.3 2015 Croatfa S 1.1 1.0 2030 China (excluding Taiwan) 1886 1.7 1.4 2000 Dernark 5 1.0 1.0 2030 Taiwan, China 27 1.3 1.4 2030 Estonia 2 1.3 1.0 1993 Hong Kong 7 1.2 1.2 2030 Finland 5 1.1 1.0 2030 Indonesia 358 2.0 1.5 2005 France 63 1.1 1.1 2030 Japan 128 1.0 1.1 2030 Georgia 7 1.3 1.2 1990 Korea, Dem. People's Rep. 39 1.8 1.5 1995 CGramny 80 1.0 1.0 2030 Korea, Rep. of 56 1.3 1.3 2030 Greece 10 1.0 1.1 2030 Lao People's Dem. Rep. 21 5.1 1.5 2040 Mungary 10 1.0 1.0 2030 Macao 1 1.5 1.2 1990 Iceland 0 1.5 1.3 2030 Malaysia 44 2.5 1.6 2015 Ireland 4 1.3 1.3 1990 Mongolia 6 2.9 1.6 2020 Italy 55 1.0 1.0 2030 Hyamnar 96 2.3 1.5 2010 Kazakhstan 28 1.7 1.3 2000 Philippines 137 2.2 1.5 2010 Kyrgyzotan 10 2.3 1.5 2015 Singapore 4 1.3 1.2 2030 Latvla 3 1.2 1.0 2030 Thailand 102 1.9 1.5 1995 Lithuania 5 1.3 1.1 2030 Viet Nam 159 2.4 1.6 2015 Luxembourg 0 1.0 1.0 2030 malta 0 1.3 1.1 2030 South Asia 3232 2.7 1.5 2060 Noldova 7 1.7 1.3 2000 Afghanistan 127 6.2 1.4 2050 Netherlands 17 1.1 1.1 2030 Bangladesh 255 2.4 1.5 2015 Norway 5 1.1 1.1 2030 Bhutan 5 3.7 1.4 2035 Poland 50 1.3 1.1 1990 India 1855 2.2 1.4 2015 Portugal 11 1.1 1.1 2030 Iran, Islamic Rep. of 490 8.8 1.7 2060 Romunia 31 1.3 1.1 1990 Maldives 1 4.8 1.7 2035 Russian Federation 191 1.3 1.1 1995 Nepal 58 3.1 1.5 2025 Slovenia 2 1.1 1.1 2030 Pakistan 397 3.5 1.6 2030 Spain 40 1.0 1.1 2030 Sri Lanka 28 1.7 1.5 1995 Sweden 10 1.1 1.0 2030 Switzerland 7 1.1 1.0 2030 Southwest Asia 528 4.0 1.6 2055 TajIkistan 17 3.1 1.7 2020 Bahrain 2 3.2 1.4 2030 Turkmenistan 9 2.5 1.6 2015 Cyprus 1 1.4 1.2 1995 United Kirngdo 64 1.1 1.0 2030 Gaza Strip 3 5.0 1.7 2035 Ukrairw 63 1.2 1.0 1990 Iraq 85 4.5 1.7 2030 Uzbekistan 52 2.5 1.6 2015 Israel 10 2.1 1.4 2005 Yugoslavia 23 1.3 1.2 2030 Jordan (East Bank) 12 4.0 1.8 2025 Other Europe 0 1.3 1.1 1990 Kuwait 4 2.0 1.5. 2010 Lebanon 6 2.2 1.6 2015 Oceania 46 1.7 1.3 2035 Oman 10 6.2 1.6 2040 Qatar 1 3.2 1.3 2030 Australia 24 1.4 1.2 2030 Saudi Arabia 89 6.0 1.6 2040 Fiji 1 1.7 1.5 2005 Syrian Arab Rep. 66 5.4 1.8 2035 French Polynesia 0 2.4 1.7 2010 Turkey 120 2.1 1.5 2010 Cum 0 1.8 1.5 2000 United Arab Emirates 3 2.2 1.2 2020 Kirfbatf 0 2.5 1.4 2020 Uest Bank 4 3.9 1.7 2025 Micronesfa, Fed. States 0 3.0 1.7 2020 Yemen, Rep. of 109 9.7 1.5 2055 New Caltdonil 0 1.9 1.5 2000 New Zealand 4 1.3 1.2 2030 Europe and C.I.S. 955 1.2 1.1 2030 Papua New Guinea 11 2.9 1.4 2020 Solomon Islands 1 3.7 1.7 2035 Albania 6 1.9 1.5 2005 Tonga 0 2.1 1.5 2015 Armenia 5 1.5 1.3 1995 Vanuatu 1 3.8 1.7 2030 Austria 8 1.0 1.0 2030 Vestern Samo 0 2.6 1.6 2020 Azerbafjan 12 1.7 1.4 2000 Other Micronesia 0 2.6 1.6 2015 selarus 13 1.3 1.1 1990 Other PolynesIa 0 2.4 1.7 2010 IhV INTRODUCTION Table 16. Population of Countries and Economies in the "Other' Categores Population Population Country or 1985 Country or 1985 economy (thousands) economy (thousands) Other West Africa 6.9 Other Europe 260.0 St. Helena 5.6 Andorra 45.0 Ascencion 1.0 Faeroe Islands 46.0 Tristan da Cunha 0.3 Gibraltar 29.0 Holy See 1.0 Other East Africa 60.8 Isle of Man 63.0 Mayotte 60.8 Liechtenstein 27.0 Monaco 27.0 Other North Africa San Marino 22.0 Western Sahara 155.0 Other Micronesia 85.0 Other Latin America Johnston Island 1.0 and the Caribbean 194.0 Marshall Islands 36.0 Angulla 7.0 Midway Islands 2.0 Aruba 60.0 Northern Mariana Islands 20.0 British Virgin Islands 12.0 Nauru 8.0 Cayman Islands 22.0 Palau 16.0 Falktard Islands 2.0 Wake Island 2.0 French Guiana 83.0 Turks and Caicos Islands 8.0 Other Polynesia 80.1 America Samoa 36.0 Other Northern America 115.0 Cook Islands 18.0 Bermuda 56.0 Niue 3.0 Greenland 53.0 Pitcairn 0.1 St. Pierre and Miquelon 6.0 Tokelau Islands 2.0 Tuvalu 8.0 Wallis and Futuna Islands 13.0 SPECIAL ToPic 1: PROJECnNG AIDS MORTALIY IV SPECIAL TOPIC I: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALITY This section describes the methodology used to incorporate AIDS mortality in the projections and compares resulting demographic indicators with those constructed if AIDS is not incorporated, as in previous editions of the World Bank's projections. The methodology makes use of an epidemiological model developed at the World Bank that simulates the spread of HIV, and the demographic model used to do the population projections (Bulatao and Bos, 1992). Simulations of the effect of current HIV prevalence on projected future mortality are used to derive equations that can be applied to populations with measurable levels of HIV infection with a minimum requirement for data. Epidemiological model The epidemiological model, developed by Bulatao (1991) consists of a numerical simulation of three processes: the spread of HIV, the development of AIDS among those infected with HIV, and the progression form AIDS to death. The three processes are modeled separately for adults (those aged 15 years and over) and children. The model allows HIV to spread sexually between partners, through blood transfusions, infected needles, and perinatally between mother and child. Sexual transmission In handling the sexual transmission of HIV, the model first divides all adults in the population into four sexual orientation groups: females (assumed to be all heterosexual), heterosexual males, homosexual males, and bisexual males. Females are assumed to choose partners from among heterosexual and bisexual males; heterosexual males from among females; homosexual males from among thc-mselves and bisexual males; and bisexual males from females, homosexual males, and among themselves. Within each group, up to ten subgroups varying by sexual behavior can be defined. Those who have developed AIDS are assumed not to be sexually active, and therefore are effectively in a no-sex subgroup. Given some initial assumption about the proportion infected with HIV in a particular year, the number sexually infected in each subsequent year is calculated subgroup by subgroup. In its basic form, the calculation of the number of HIV seroconversions (0) in one year (t) in a given subgroup (s) of one sexual orientation group (r) is given by Om = Mr,,.1 P,.1I{1 - (1 - 1) (1 - OT) (1 - R.1[1(1 - TA)51)Fr} (1) where M is the number of HIV seronegatives in the subgroup, P is the likelihood of adult survival from mortality unrelated to HIV, R is the proportion of potential sexual contacts, or agents, who are infective, T is the likelihood of transmission to group r through sexual contact, S is an average number for sex acts per partner, and F is the annual number of new partners. (Different values of F and S are the main factors distinguishing sexual orientation subgroups.) 01 and OT will be explained below. The proportion of agents (R) infective to subgroup s is the weighted proportion across all other subgroups with which subgroup s has sexual contact who are asymptomatic but HIV- seropositive (A). The weights used are the frequencies (F) with which these other subgroups take new sexual partners. The asymptomatic seropositives (A) in a given subgroup are calculated by summing up all those infected in previous ye-ars and subtracting those expected to progress to AIDS or to die from other causes. Vi SPECIAL Topic I: PROJECnNe AIDS MoRTALfy No restrictions are placed on the way sexual orientation groups are divided into subgroups or on the values of F and S specified for each subgroup. Inconsistent parameters, requiring for example that males have many more sexual partners in the aggregate than the available females, can be used as input. The model adjusts the input figures if necessuy, essentially taking averages or adjusting figures proportionally, in order to force them into consistency. These adjustments are made for each year of the simulation, as the number and distribution of the sexually active changes. Nonsexal transmission Infection with HIV through needles and blood accounts for the terms 0, and OT in equation (1). The adult population is divided into crosscutting subgroups for number of annual transfusions and number of annual injections, with the bulk of adults typically assumed to be In zero- frequency subgroups. The probability of infection (0~ or OT) in each subgroup Is then a function of the proportion of "agentsW (needles or blood) infected, the likelihood of transmission through a single exposure to an infected agent, and the frequency of such exposure, through injections or transfusions, for the particular subgroup. The formula is similar to (1), leaving out a few irrelevant terms. The proportion of needles infected is equal to the proportion of adults infected, weighted by the frequency with which each receives an injection. The proportion of blood infected is equal to the proportion of adults infected, optionally weighted by propensity to donate blood, which can be specified for each sexual orientation subgroup. Both these proportions can be modified, the first by a specified proportion of needles sterilized and the second by a specified proportion of blood screened. For perinatal, or vertical, transmission, the number of infected newborns is the product of the number of women of reproductive age, the proportion of women infected (including, in this case, those who have progressed to AIDS), the general fertility rate, and an optional adjustment factor that can be used if it is assumed that those infected have either higher or lower fertility than others. The model does not allow overall fertility to be affected by use of this adjustment factor, implying in effect that fertility among those not infected either rises or fails to counterbalance the adjustment. Nor does the model make allowance for children being infected in any other fashion, nor for their transmitting the virus to anyone else. Progression from hIV to AIDS The number that progress to AIDS is determined by applying separate schedules for adults and children that depend on year since initial infection, after excluding morality from other causes. The model therefore keeps track of cohorts of HIV seropositives distinguished by infection date, so that appropriate progression rates can be appled. A logistic function of the form H = k / [2 + exp (a + bt)] (2) is presently applied in generating the schedule, but alternative functions can in principle be incorporated. The progression from infection to frank AIDS for both adults and children can be modeled with the same functional form, with the parameters set to allow substantially faster progression for children. Proession from HIV to AIDS Progression from AIDS to death is handled in a similar manner as progression to frank AIDS, using a logistic pattern. SPECIAL ToPic 1: PRojECnNG AIDS MoRTALTr hil Model complications Several additional features of the model mainly affect the transmission process and allow tests of the effects of various unknown parameters. These features, listed below, can be ignored in a routine run of the model. (i) Random movement between sexal orientation subgroups. Membership in the four main sexual orientation groups is assumed to be fixed. Within these groups, subgrouF proportions are initially specified by the user, and these proportions are applied to the initial population and to all those entering adulthood each year. In one scenario, each individual stays in the same subgroup all his or her life. In an alternative scenario, some proportion of individuals moves between subgroups each year. The model allows specification of a fixed proportion of individuals who move randomly among subgroups, with the likelihood that they enter a given subgroup being proportional to the distribution across subgroups. This is accomplished computationally by redistributing the specified proportion of individuals each year before calculating seroconversions. (ii) Infective phases. Different probabilities of transmission can be entered for contact between susceptibles and particular infective agents--men, women, needles, blood, mothers. In addition, human agents can be allowed to vary in infectivity over time. The period between infection and development of AIDS can be divided into up to six segments of varying length, for each of which a specific probability of transmission can be specified. (Since the entire period varies in length across individuals, the segments are proportional rather than of absolute length.) Computationally, this affects equation (1), in which the term K,,,, [1 - (1 - T')&1 (3) is actually calculated as the summation of similar terms for each of the infective phases. (fii) Cofactors. The model allows condom use, genital ulcers, and one user-specified cofactor to affect infection by acting as a multiplier of transmission rates. In the case of condoms, for instance, transmission rates may be multiplied by .1 or .2 or some other value for those using condoms. An appropriate multiplier and the proportion in each sexual orientation subgroup to whom the cofactor applies must be specified. From period to period, those to whom the cofactor applies may stay essentially the same or may change randomly. (iv) Anal set On the assumption that anal sex carries different risks from otner forms of .ex, the user is allowed to specify what this greater risk is and what proportion of sex acts involve anal intercourse for each sexual orientation subgroup. (v) Genetic variability. The adult population can be divided into two or three groups of arbitrary size with varying susceptibilities to infection. These groups crosscut the sexual orientation groups. A multiplier for the transmission rates and a relative size must be specified for each group. Computationally, this creates additional compartments in the model but does not change the basic formulae. (vi) Changes in parameters. The model allows changes over time in several parameters. This is accomplished by selecting a date for changes to start and a percentage by which the parameter will rise or fall annually. Changes are allowed in all these parameters: transmission probabilities, sexual behavior, proportion of blood screened, proportion of needles sterilized, proportion using condom, and proportion with genital ulcers. This option allows testing the effects of various interventions, such as those directed towards behavioral change, STD programs, and other medical interventions, lviii SPECIAL ToPic 1: PROJECTNG AIDS MORTALTY on the spread of HIV (See Bulatao and Bos, 1989b, for an example). (vii) Attraction matnix The basic model assumes proportionate mixing among the relevant subgroups, modified by the frequency with which each subgroup chooses partners. A further modification can be made if one wishes to assume that contact between particular subgroups is more likely than contact between others. An "attraction matrix" is defined providing weights for the likelihood of contact between every pair of subgroups. These weights are used in calculating the proportion of agents (R) that are infective to a given subgroup. A weight of 2, for instance, implies in effect that members of each of the two subgroups, in looking over possible partners, behave as if there were twice as many members of the other subgroup as there actually are. As with other sexual behavior parameters, the attraction matrix can be input in an unbalanced form, and will be forced into balance, which is accomplished through an iterative process. (viii) Urban-rural differences. By defining additional subgroups and using an attraction matrix, it is possible to run a simulation with separate urban and rural sectors. Each sexual orientation subgroup must be divided into two groups, one rural and one urban. The attraction matrix can then be used to increase likelihood of contact within sectors and reduce contact across sectors. In addition, if the proportion of the population in the urban sector in each year is defined, the model shifts sufficient numbers of people between the parallel subgroups in each sector to meet these figures. Demographic Model The demographic model that is linked to the epidemiological model is a variant of the standard cohort-component model used to produce population projections in the absence of AIDS (See Data and Methods and Hill, 1990). The epidemiological model keeps track of age at death due to AIDS among children. Deaths due to AIDS among adults are distributed across five-year age groups according to an age-sex distnbution provided by the user. These are translated into probabilities of dying, which, because they already exclude mortality from other causes, can be simply added to the life table values that are among the vital rates that drive the demographic model. Some aggregation is necessary because the epidemiological model generates annual estimates, while the demographic model generates quinquennial estimates. Simulations A major obstacle to applying the model to Sub-Saharan countries is the unavailability of data required in the model. This concems especially the behavioral components affecting the spread of HIV. Other required data, such as transmission rates of the virus, the progression to AIDS and death, and the effects of ulcers and condom use, are to some extent transferable from other settings. To circumvent the data problem, and to reduce the amount of input that would be required to apply the model for each Sub-Saharan country with discernable levels of HIV infection, the relationships between current HIV prevalence and future mortality from AIDS were extracted from a set of simulations produced by running the model with standard parameters for a hypothetical population. Modelling approach The approach followed here involves running the above models many times with varying SPECIAL TOPIC 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTALrTY lix values of sexual behavior variables to match arbitrarily fixed levels of HIV prevalence in 1990: low prevalence (1 percent of the adult population), intermediate (3 percent) and high (6 percent). In these simulations, sexual behavior parameters are manipulated to achieve the specified HIV prevalence, whereas other variables are set at one of, three levels. These variables, selected because of their significance in the spread of the virus established in previous applications of the model (See, e.g. Bulatao, 1991) and because of known variations in conditions in Sub-Saharan countries, are: condom use, the prevalence of genital ulcers, and the intensity of blood screening. In addition, three different starting years (1970, 1975, and 1980) for the epidemic were used. The combination of every level of these variables, shown in table SI below, results in a total of 243 simulations, which were run from the start of the epidemic until 2025. Other parameters of the model, such as fertility levels and trends, mortality from other causes, age structure, transmission rates, progression of children and adults from HIV to AIDS and death were selected on the basis of available information from surveys and surveillance systems in Sub-Sahara African countries (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1991). Especially useful in establishing parameter values were also "standard parameters' developed for HIV modeling exercises at the United Nations and at Family Health International (United Nations/World Health Organization, 1991; Family Health International, 1991). Table S2 shows a summary of the assumed parameter values used in the simulations. Further assumptions were necessary regarding the course of the epidemic in the future. While intensive efforts to develop a vaccine are reported to be making some progress, at this time it does not appear likely that an effective vaccine will be available in the next few years. Arbitrarily, it is assumed that an effective medical intervention will become available in 2005, and that transmission of the virus resulting in new HIV infections will be cut in half each year thereafter. It is also assumed that there is no interaction between HIV prevalence and fertility, or between AIDS mortality and mortality from other causes (other than that an individua; who succumbs to AIDS cannot die of another cause). The evidence of individuals adjusting their fertility behavior based on the prevalence of HIV is very limited, and hypotheses for either an increase and a decrease in overall fertility have been proposed (World Bank, 1990; Ryder et al., 1991). Simulation results The simulation output gives projections of HIV prevalence from 1990 to 2025 in the presence of varying levels of the cofactors, and of several resulting mortality indicators. The analysis of the simulation results consists of two steps. First, it is examined how well future HIV prevalence can be predicted from 1990 prevalence in these simulated scenarios. Second, the relationship between HIV prevalence and mortality indicators is examined. As AIDS mortality in Sub-Sahara Africa affects both adults and young children, both the effects of HIV level on future life expectancy at age 10 and on future mortality of children under five are analyzed. Regression analysis is used to establish the relationship between 1990 prevalence and future prevalence, separately for males and females. In order to linearize trends over time in these data, logarithmic transformation of HIV prevalence are used. Table S3 shows the regression coefficients to predict future HIV prevalence from just three variables: 1990 HIV prevalence, 1990 HIV prevalence squared, and the year that the epidemic started. The model fits the data very well, especially early in the projection period, and the R2 never drops below 0.85. kc SPECIAL Topic 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORTAUTY Table Sl. HIV transmission fators and their values used In simulatons Variable Values Starting year of spread of HIV 1970, 1975, and 1980 Condom use low (1%o), medium (2%), and high (3%); increased gradually after 1990 Genital ulcers prevalence medium: 0.001-7.5%, depending on risk subgroup; decreased gradually after 1990 high: double the medium value low: half the medium value Blood screening low (5%), medium (10%), high (20%); increased gradually after 1990 Sexual behavior Number of new sexual partners per year varied to achieve 1990 HIV prevalence of 1%, 3%, and 6% Regression analysis is also used to establish the relationships between the level of adult HIV infection and mortality indicators in the future. The effects for adult males and adult females are estimated separately, and the effects on chiUdren's mortality is estimated from female infection rates. Table S4 shows regression equations, with life expectancy at age 10 the dependent variable for the equations including HIV prevalence, HIV prevalence squared, and the starting year of the epidemic as independent variables for adults. For chidren, under-five mortality is the dependent variable, and HIV prevalence for women the only independent variable. Given that these regressions use data generated with simulations, eliminating the effects of extraneous factors, it is not surprising that the R2 values are so high. As stated above, these results apply to a hypothetical population with overall mortality levels as in Eastern Africa. The equations would underestimate the impact of AIDS in countries with lower mortality from other causes and overestimate the impact where mortality is higher. Further analysis showed that for the projection purposes, the application of an adjustment factor equal to the squared ratio of a given life expectancy and the hypothetical population's life expectancy would produce consistent results. This adjustment factor is applied to the number of years lost due to AIDS. SPECLAL ToPic 1: PROJECnNo AIDS MORrALnY lxi Appllcatlon to Sub-Saharan African countries Data Estimates of HIV prevalence in 1990 for aU Sub-Saharan African countries were made by Chin (1991) at the World Health Organization, and are summarized in Figure Si. These estimates were for males and females combined; based on the simulations, it is assumed that female HIV prevalence is 1.2 times male prevalence. HIV-1 and HIV-2 have been combined in one overaUl HIV estimate. Starting years of the epidemic were derived from the U.S. Bureau of the Census' AIDS data base (1990). Figure Sl. Percent HIV Seropositive, Adult Populanon 1990 I~~ ~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ to lXii SPECIAL TOPIC 1: PROJECnNG AIDS MORTALuTY Table S2. Parameter values used In simulations Deographic variables Fertility TotaL fertility rate declines from 6.5 during 1985-1995 to 6.2 in 1995-2000, and by 0.6 units thereafter. Age specific fertility pattern like Eastern Africa aggregate. Fertility adjustments No fertility adjustments because of HIV/AIDS are made. Mortality (non-AIDS) Mortality from causes other than AIDS follows Eastern Africa aggregate pattern. Life expectancy gradually increases from 55.6 during 1985-1990 to 68.7 during 2020-2025. Infant mortality declines during the same ________________ __ period from 93 to 34. I Mortality adjustments No interaction between AIDS mortality and mortality from other causes is assumed. Age structure The 1985 age-sex distribution equals the Eastern Africa aggregate, with 46X below age 15 and 51X between ages 15 and 65. Tranmsission rates Heterosexual contacts Male to female transmission averages 0.002; female to male, 0.001. Transmission rates vary by duration since infection of the infected partner. Homosexual contacts It is assumed that homosexual contacts are insignificant and can be ignored. Blood transfusions Receiving a blood transfusion with infected blood Is assumed to have a transmission rate of almost 0.999. InJections Receiving an injection with an infected needle is assumed to have a transmission rate of 0.005. Perinatal Perinatal (or vertical) transmission from is assuned to average 0.3. Cofactors: ulcers A multiplicative factor of 40 is applied to transmission rates when a susceptible partner has genital ulcers. Cofactors: condoms A multiplicative factor of 0.2 is applied to transmission rates when a condom is used. Anal sex effect No adjustment of transmission rates is assumed for either receptive or insertive anal sex. Risk group meibershMp ard charaecteristics Risk group membership: males 30X monogamous; 40X low sexual activity; 20% medium l ~~~~~~~~~~sexual activitY- 10X high sexual activitY Risk group membership: females 50X monogamous; 30X low sexual activity; 15X percent l ~~~~~~~~~~medium sexual activity; 5X prostitutes New contact frequency: mates Monogamous: 0.05 new contacts per year; low: 2; medium: 15; high: 50. Contact frequencies adjusted in simulations with different HIV prevalence levels SPECIAL TOPIC 1: PRloECmaN AIDS MoRrALnrrY bcil New contact frequency: females .negamous: 0.05 new contacts per year; low: 2; medium: 5; prostitutes: 200. Contact frequenles l adjusted In simulations with different HIV prevalence levels Blood transfusions 90X percent never receives a blood transfusion; 8X has 0.1 frequency of receiving blood; 1K has I -________ ________ _________ ______ _ exposure; 1X has 5 exposures Injections 70X percent receives 0.1 injections; 10K has 1 frequency of receiving an Injectfon; 10X has 3 exposures; 10X has 10 exposures Genital ulcers prevalence Medium value for monogamous males and females: 0.0001; low sexual activity: 0.0005; medium sexual activity: 0.02; high sexual activity, males: 0.1; female prostitutes: 0.2 Disease progression Adults: NIV to AIDS Progression follows a logistic curves, with parameters a=2.77, b=0.3, kh0.9. This has a median of 10 years, with 90 percent of those Infected ultimately developing AIDS Children: HIV to AIDS Progression follows a logistic curve, with parameters l _______________________________________ a=3, b 3, kh 0.98 Adults: AIDS to death Progression follows a Logistic curve, with parameters a11.5, b-1.5, k-0.999 Children: AIDS to death Progression follows a logistic curve, with parameters a=4, b-4, k=0.999 Other praeters ___ Random prc-'rtion for cofactu group It is assumed that an individuaL'8 status an ulcer and condom cofactors i8 10X random, in comparison - wfth thefr status fn the peiu er Random subgroup proportion It Is assumm i t' t subgroup membership Is 10K random, in coaiparison with subgrow ;--,-, -rship in the previous year Condom-genital ulcers association It Is assumed that there is a -0.75 correlation between an individual having genital ulcers end using a condom. Genetic variability No variability in genetic susceptibility to infection ________________________________________ Is assumed. Blood donatfon propensity is assumed not to vary by rfsk group. Attraction matrix Pr rtionate mixing is assumed bdlv SPECiAL Topic 1: PROJECTnNG AIDS MORTALrTy Table S3. Regresslons for 11W pralence In hfture years, female and male adults HIV Prevalence (Ln) in year Predictor 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 FENALES Constant -158.50 -250.39 -320.94 *352.79 -380.33 -404.87 -556.77 (3.06) (6.45) (9.22) (10.61) (11.82) (13.20) (31.57) 1990 NIV (tn) 1.11 1.18 1.27 1.30 1.33 1.36 1.20 (0.01) (0.02) (0.03) (0.04) (0.04) (0.05) (0.07) 1990 HIV squared (in) -0.06 -0.09 -0.11 -0.11 -0.11 -0.12 0.00 (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) '0.03) (0.05) Year of start 0.08 0.13 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.28 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) k2 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.86 N-243 MALES Constant -158.36 -251.55 -323.41 -356.36 -385.34 -409.76 -550.86 (3.18) (6.56) (9.33) (10.73) (11.98) (13.23) (31.26) 1990 HIV (tn) 1.08 1.14 1.22 1.24 1.28 1.30 1.12 (0.01) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.04) (0.04) (0.07) 1990 NIV squared (In) -0.05 -0.08 -0.10 0.00 -0.11 -0.12 O.O0 (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.04) Year of start 0.08 0.13 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.28 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) R2 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.85 N=243 Table S4. Regressions for llfe expectancy at agp 10 and under-Eve mortality rate Life expectancy at ao 10 in period Predictor 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 FEMALES Constant 55.96 58.10 59.06 59.95 61.33 62.73 64.02 (0.02) (0.03) (0.06) (0.07) (0.03) (0.01) (0.06) HIV (in) -0.87 -0.88 -0.97 -1.01 -1.39 -1.74 -1.45 (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.08) HIV squared (In) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 -0.06 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.02) mc 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.95 MALES Constant 54.59 55.73 56.31 56.77 58.03 59.23 60.30 (0.02) (0.03) (0.14) (0.14) (0.11) (0.08) (0.05) HIV (In) -0.70 -0.88 -0.87 -0.84 -1.19 -1.49 -1.34 (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.04) (0.07 HIV squared (In) 0.00 O.C2 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.02) f2 0.99 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.94 SPECIAL Topic 1: PRoJEcTING AIDS MoRTAUTY bxv Table S4, continued Under-ffve mortolity rate In period Predictor IM-95 1995.00 . 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 Constant 0.104 0.092 0.080 0.068 0.054 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) HIV 0.004 0.003 0.003 O.OQ2 0.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) 0.9 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 Procedures The regression equations estimated above were incorporated into the World Bank's standard procedures for projecting mortalty (Bulatao and Bos, 1989a). The procedures were modified as follow,: first, the level and pattern of mortality is projected under no-AIDS circumstances, and appropriate Coale-Demeny model life tables are selected. Using adult HIV prevalence in 1990 and an estimated starting year of the epidemic, HIV prevalence in future years is calculated with the regressions in Table S3. Next, years of lfe expectancy lost due to AIDS mortality of children and adults is calculated with the regressions in Table S4. Finally, the number of years lost, expressed as Coale-Demeny model life table levels, is subtracted from the projected no-AIDS trends until 2020-25, after which mortality recovers gradually to the projected level in 2050 under a no-AIDS situation. Results 'Te estimated impact of AIDS on demographic indicators will be presented for all Sub- Sahara African countries combined and the impact of AIDS on total population will be given for individual countries. Figure S2 shows projected population and Figure S3 the population growth rate for 1985-2020, comparing the revised World Bank projections that incorporate AIDS mortality and previous projections without AIDS mortality, which are otherwise identicaL The difference in the number of people is hardly discernable before the end of this decade, but keeps growing and reaches 49 million in 2020. The difference In the growth rate is at most 0.15 percent. The differences are not only due to AIDS mortality, but also to fewer births resulting from fewer women of reproductive age. The contrast between the AIDS and no-AIDS scenarios is much more pronounced for life expectancy (Figure S4), which immediately shows a lower rate of increase and a divergence of as much as 3.5 years. Figure S5 shows the number of deaths due to AIDS, added to deaths irom other causes. At its peak, AIDS adds 1.3 million deaths annualy to the 95 million deaths from other causes. Long-term implications of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are shown in Figures S6 and S7. Life expectancy is assumed to recover fully to the no-AIDS levels by 2050, total population, will, celeisparibus, never catch-up with the population projected in the no-AIDS scenario. Such long-term projections are, of course, much more dependent on the assumptions made regarding the future course of the epidemic and the effectiveness of interventions than are projections for the short-term. Table S5 shows the percentage difference in projected population in AIDS and no-AIDS scenarios for all countries of Sub-Saharan Africa for 2000, 2020, and 2050. The mean difference in 2000 is 0.8 percent, in 2020, 3.2 percent, and In 2050, 5.2 percent. xVi SPECIAL ToPic 1: PROJECTINO AIDS MoRTALnY Figure S2. Total Population CblIlions) Oub-ga^hran Afrlca, '1985-020 1.2 '1.2 .1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 L I I 195 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 o No AIDS + AIDS Figure S3. Population Growth Rate C%) Sub-Saharan Africa, 1995-2020 3 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 I 19a-so 1990-9S 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 o No AIDS + AIDS SPECIAL Topic 1: PRoECeNG AIDS MORTALrY blvil Figure S4. Life Expectancy Cyears) Stt-Saroran Africa, t98s-2020 63 62 el so 59 so 57 so 55 54 53 S2 51 19S-90 1990-OS 1995-0.0 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 0 No AIDS + AIDS Figure S5. Annual Deaths (millions) Sub-Saharan Africa. 1985-2020 11 10 9 4 3 2 0 1995-90 199S-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 NO AIDS =AIDS bcvili SPECIAL ToPIc 1: PROJECTING AIDS MORrALry Figure S6. Total Population Cbillions) Si6-Sshuran Africa, 1985-2150 3.2 3 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.f 0.6 _,v 0.4 1S 20b11 2020 [ 24 20b 1 2a1bo0 21'20 j 2140j wo 2010 2030 202N 2070 200 2110 210 2150 0 No AIOS + AIDS Figure S7. Life expectancy Cyears) Stb-Sarnran Afrlca. 1995-2150 9o 8s so 75 70 60 ~ ) / 55 5° 1984-90 I 2024-20 1 2064-70 I0l 2144 200 tO0 2045SO 50 20 20 212 530 C No AIDS + AIDS SPECUL ToPi 1: PROECanN AIDS MoRrALY blbc Table SS. Percentage difference In population, AIDS and no-AIDS scenarios 2000 2020 2050 2000 2020 2050 Angola 0.2 1.6 3.5 halawi 2.0 7.8 12.3 Benin 1.2 6.0 8.6 Mali 0.1 1.2 2.8 Botswana 0.1 0.8 1.2 Mauritanfa 0.3 1.7 3.9 Burkina Faso 0.5 3.0 5.2 Mauritius 0.0 0.4 0.9 Burundi 1.9 7.1 10.8 Nozmbfique 1.2 4.5 7.2 Cameroon 0.3 2.1 3.5 NMafibia 0.5 2.3 3.1 Cape Verde 0.4 1.7 2.3 Niger 0.2 1.6 3.8 Centr. Af. R. 2.0 7.4 10.4 Nigeria 0.3 1.6 2.6 Chad 0.0 0.6 2.0 Reutfon 0.0 0.0 0.0 Comoros 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rwanda 1.9 7.5 12.1 Congo 1.3 4.7 7.3 Sao Tome 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cote D'ivoire 1.7 6.2 9.3 Senegal 0.1 1.6 3.1 Djibouti 0.3 1.8 3.6 Seychelles 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eq. Guinea 0.4 1.9 3.2 Sierra Leone 0.3 1.8 3.6 Ethiopia 0.2 1.4 3.2 Somelia 0.8 3.7 7.0 Gabon 0.3 1.7 4.0 South Afrfia 0.1 0.6 0.8 Cambia 0.4 2.6 5.1 Sudan 0.3 2.1 3.9 Ghana 0.2 1.4 2.6 Swaziland 0.1 1.0 1.9 Guinea 0.2 1.7 3.8 Tanzlani 1.7 6.8 10.6 Cuinea-Blssau 2.1 7.6 11.1 Togo 0.4 2.4 4.3 Kenya 0.7 3.6 5.7 Uganda 2.6 10.0 14.9 Lesotho 0.0 0.3 0.8 Zairo 1.1 4.6 7.0 Liberia 0.4 1.9 2.9 Zeabia 4.7 14.9 20.6 Madagascar 0.1 0.8 1.7 Zf1babwe 2.8 7.6 9.1 Condusions While the impact of AIDS on population could certainly be more severe than shown here, especially if varhus conditions conducive to the spread of HIV would prevail, the results indicate that even in severely affected countries population growth is likely to continue at high levels. Short-term effects were shown to reverse gains made in life expectancy over the past decades and to increase the crude death rate, but not to an extent that population growth is reduced by more than 0.5 percent in the countries with the highest infection levels. It must be stressed that many parameter estimates for model variables are based partly on conjecture rather than on empirical data. While the model has been used to effectively simulate the spread of the epidemic from its start In the early 1970s to the presence (See, e.g. World Bank, forthcoming), there is no guarantee that the same parameters will hold in the future. Further uncertainty is introduced by the unknowable future course of the epidemic, which in this analysis is assumed to be drasticaiy reduced after 2005. As with most projections, the short-term effects are accompanied by much less uncertainty than the longer range projections. In the case of HIV/AIDS, with its long incubation period, mortality in the next several years is mostlv the result from infections that occurred in the past 10 or so years. If an estimate of HIV prevalence is available, projections of mortality from AIDS should be quite reliable. The more difficult part is clearly projecting the spread of HIV, as this is subject to behavior that does not lend itself to easy inquiry. bXo SPECIAL Topic 1: PROJECTINO AIDS MORTALrry References Bulatao, Rodolfo A. 1991. "The Bulatao Approach: Projecting the Demographic Impact of the HIV Epidemic Using Standard Parameters.' Chapter X in: United Nations/World Health Organization (1991) The AIDS Epidemic and its Demographic Consequences. New York and Geneva. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. and Eduard Bos. 1989a. Projectng MortalityforAll Counnies. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers, No. 337. Population and Human Resources Department, The World Bank. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. and Eduard Bos. 1989b. Implications of Control Measures for the Spread of HIV Infecton. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, April 1989. Bulatao, Rodolfo A. and Eduard Bos. 1992. Projecting the Demographic Impact of AIDS. Policy Research Working Paper WPS 941. Chin, James. 1991. Formal estimates of 1990 seroprevalence, Sub-Saharan Africa. Unpublished Manuscript. Hill, Kenneth. 1990. PROJ3S - A Computer Program for Population Projectons. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Ryder, Robert W. et al. 1991. "Fertility rates in 238 HIV-1 seropositive women in Zaire followed for 3 years post-partum." AIDS 5,12:1521-1526. a United Nations and World Health Organization. 1991. The AIDS Epidemic and its Demographic Consequences. New York and Geneva. United States, Bureau of the Census. Recent HIV Seropralence Levels by County: September 1990. Research Notes No. 2, Health Studies Branch, Center for International Research. World Bank. 1990. Seminar on AIDS and Population Policy, August 28, 1990 (Background materials). Washington, DC: The World Bank. World Bank. Forthcoming. The Socioeconomic Impact of AIDS in Uganda. Washington, DC: The World Bank. SPECIAL TOPIC II: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN FORMER SOVIET-UNION bol SPECIAL TOPIC II: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN THE REPUBLICS OF THE FORMER U.S.S.R. Since the previous edition of World Population Projectons was issued, the U.S.S.R. has dissolved and become fifteeii separate countries for which individual projections are provided in this volume for the first time. The demographic situation in these countries is quite diverse as a result of past differences in vital rates and migration, and their demographic prospects are consequently very different as well. This section focusses on the recent demographic history of and prospects for the former Soviet Republics, which, because they constituted one country, has not been presented before. Population growth and distribution Of the fifteen countries, the largest is the Russian Federation with over half of the population of the former Soviet Union, as is shown in Figure S1. The next largest are, in order, the Ukraine, Uzbeklstan, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. The other ten countries contain only 12 percent of the total population of the former Soviet Union. 'hus, while the Russian Federation is by far the largest country of Europe, most of the former Soviet republics resemble many other countries in the region in the size of the total population. Land areas of the countries vary even more widely than population totals; as a result, population densities are very uneven, ranging from 129 perszns per square kilometer in Moldova, to 8.7 persons per square kilometer in the Russian Federation, which includes the vast and sparsely populated Siberian regions. Figure S. Composition of the Former Soviet Union Latvia CO.sx Armrnlo CI1.X) r8Z&knstan CS.9l) Russian Fed. C51.21) Azerbain Jen Ct2.5 GeorgIa CISI) KY= ston c 1. b ,:X shows estimated 1992 life expectancy (male and female) from the Soviet Union average for each country. Belarus is highest, with a life expectancy that is two years higher, and Turkmenistan stands out with a life n .jw * . i.vo. expectancy five years below the Soviet Union average. Recent trends in life expectancy for males are shown in Figures S7 and S8. As with fertility, Figure S6. Difference in e(O) from USSR average clear geographic patterns are noticeable, with lower life expectancies for the Central Asian countries. Life *.0 lexpectancy increased in most countries by one to two years during the 1980s 0.0 _although there was a sizable one-time -1.0 § 1drop in Armenia's level attributable to -*.0 the 1988 earthquake. One of the more ; .0 lllremarkable demographic features of some of the former Soviet republics is the large differences between male and female life expectancy (Figures S9 and S10), reaching a high of 10.5 years in Russia - the highest observed difference in the world. These disparities between male and female life Figure S7. Trends in e(0) expectancy are probably due to greater alcohol and cigarette consumption by men (Dutton 1981). 72 Although infantmortalityincreased somewhat during the 1970's (possibly due to improved reporting), it has been decreasing over the last decade for aU of the countries. However, considerable diversity still exists in the rates which are higher in the Central 0 n 2 . . U U U U Asian countries and lower in most of o * b.. * 'h~ the other countries. The infant mortality rates range from 54 in Turkmenistan to 15 in the Ukraine and Belarus. bOdV SPECLAL Topic II: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN FORMER SOVIET-UNION Figure S8. Trends in e(O) Migraon Internal migration played an important role in the spatial A : distribution of the population of the Soviet Union. Government policies aimed at balancing requirements for labor and population; however, they were only partly successful. In the " . , < . . . ~~~~~~~1960s, efforts to settle outlying areas in c a n "YW a a 0 0 to Siberia were largely ineffective, while a .*"V. " a ^, X _. the Central Asian republics, which already had a labor surpluw, continued to attract more migrants. In the 1970s, however, there was significant change Figure S9. Differences between male and female e(O) in the direction of interregional migration trends (Zayanchkovskaya, 1991). Western Siberia started to experience a large influx of population, and the Central Asian republics began X '-.---.r to have large migration deficits. These § ' \ =: trends continued in the 1980s. The North-Western and Central regions (Moscow and St. Petersburg and their * districts) attracted large number of migrants throughout the period. o 1mu.' . - * ^.'wt.. a?.usm. Several factors are c.nducive for intensified migration in the 1990s. The change to a market economy, which is likely to result in differentials in wages Figure S10. Differences between male and female e(O) and employment opportunities, will create labor markets with strong incentives to move to the economically more developed countries. Past migration trends have led to i e considerable ethnic diversity in some of the countries, whereas others have remained more homogeneous. Over 25 million Russians live outside the country in other former Soviet Union * . . . . . 9 . 1. . republics, while Armenia's population is 93 percent ethnic Armenians _,,,,,,,, . . , , . (Scherbov and Andreev, 1992). The consequences of ethnic dispersion for future migration flows are hard to anticipate; at its worse, it could SPECIAL TOPic 11: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN FORMER SOVIET-UNION boxv result in substantial refugee flows when ethnic frictions erupt, as in the Armenia-Azerbaijani conflict. Full freedom of movement was restricted in the former Soviet Union; to what extent new migration policies will limit the movement of people among the new countries remains to be seen. In addition to economic, ethnic, and political factors, natural apd environmental disasters may increase future migration. The Chernobyl nuclear accident has caused large outmigradon in the areas of the Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia most affected by contaminadon. References Dutton, John C Jr. 1981. "Causes of Soviet Adult Mortality Increases". Soviet Studies, Vol 33, No 4: 548-559. Scherbov, Sergei, and Evgeniy Andreev. 1992. "Population Prospects for the Republics of the Former USSR." Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Denver, April 30-May 2, 1992. Zayanchkovskaya, Zh. A. 1991. "Inter-Republic Population Migration in the USSR." Studies on Soviet Economic Development, Vol 2, No 3:228-242. lxovi DATA AND METHODS DATA AND METODS The data use in each projection include base-year (mid-1985) total population estimates and age structures by sex, and base-period (1985-90) mortality, fertility and migration rates. The data, their sources and how they are derived when insufficient information is available, will be described in this section. The sources of each country's base data can be found in Table A3. Population and age-ser stncture Estimates of the mid-1985 populations are obtained from the most recent reliable sources. When possible, these estimates are obtained from recent census totals projected to mid-1985, after adjustments have been made for under- or over-reporting. Provisional census figures that have not been evaluated are not used. A major source of adjusted census figures is the U.N. Population Division. Other sources include the U.S. Bureau of the Census, Eurostat and, for the former Soviet countries, the U.S.S.R. census publications. When no recent census figures are available, official estimates are often adopted, frequently as reported by the U.N. Statistical Office in Populadon and Vital Statitics Report. In addition, base-year population estimates may be obtained through projections of past census results with fertility, mortality, and migration rates from vital registration or surveys. Age-sex strctures are distributions of the population by age and sex As is the case for total population, the U.N. Population Division provides many of the age-sex structures, which generally are census age structures adjusted for age-misreporting or estimations using stable population analysis when necessary. Other sources include World Bank and official estimates from recent censuses and projections from earlier censuses. Estimates based on a more recent census generally provide more reliable information than estimates constructed through projections from earlier censuses. However, some European countries have not had a census in decades, but maintain very accurate demographic intelligence through population- and vital registers. Most other countries lack complete regstration systems and rely on censuses, usually taken ten years apart, often supplemented with intercensal surveys. Figure Al summarizes the currentness of census counts. Mortality data Base-period mortality levels in the projections are indicated by life-ecancies at birth by sex and infant mortality rates for both sexes combined. Life expectancies for the quinquennia 1975- 80, 1980-85 and 1985-90 were obtained from a variety of sources, with the U.N. Population Division being the most frequent one. Others are based on estimates published in Populaton and ViW Statistics Report, DHS reports, statistical yearbooks, census publications, World Bank reports, Eurostat (1991), Monnier and Guibert-Lantoine (1991) and the U.S. Bureau of the Census. In cases where data are not available for the desired quinquennium, or give indices other than life expectancies, some estimation and projection is then necessary to obtain the right index. Further detail about the construction of current mortality estimates may be found in Bos et al. (1992). Infant mortality rates, like life expectancies, are taken from a variety of sources. A frequently used source is the U.N. 1990 World Population Prospects. Other sources include surveys, DATA AND METHODS b0xvii Figure Al Distribution of countries by year of latest census loo so so 70 so 0 50 0 40 30 20 10 a Before 1970 or none 1970-1979 1980-1984 1985 or later censuses, official estimates, USBOC, Eurostat and World Bank estimates. The mortality risk for children under age 5 for the current period is derived from a model described below. Earlier estimates are often taken from the U.N. publication Mortality of Chilren Under Age 5. Fenility data Total fertility rates are derived from similar sources as mortality rates, including the U.N.'s World Population Prospects 1990, surveys, censuses, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census. The DHS survey are a particularly useful source of data. Other sources include official estimates, Bank estimates, and Eurostat. Because fertility rates are not always available for the specified period or are in terms of another parameter such as the crude birth rate, total fertility rates are sometimes obtained by projections of earlier estimates or approximated using available data on age-sex structure and age- specific fertility. Migration Data Estimates of net international migration are obtained from a variety of sources including statistics from national immigration agencies, statistical organizations, official sources, interagency task forces and research institutions. Arnold (1989) compiled al these data. Updates of this information have been made as more data has become available. In developing these estimates, migrants are considered persons who have resided in countries different from their previous residence for at least a year or who are believed likely to remain permanently in receiving countries. Persons are not counted as migrants when they are refugees Iving in officiaHy designated camps. Only net estimates are made by quinquennium; immigration and emigration are not estimated separately, and single-year figures were not a&essed. bocviii DATA AND MErHoDs Projection methodology Population projections werc run using the cohort-component method on microcomputers with the software package, PROJ3L (A similar program, PROJ3S, is described in IHil (1990), the only difference being that this program allows for 75-year projections rather than long-term projections shown here. The assumptions about future trends in vital rates will be discussed in this section. Projecting Mortality The procedures used to project mortality were developed from analysis of trends in lIfe expectancy and infant mortality in available national data. (See Bulatao et al., 1989). These projections utilize extended life tables (see Coale and Guo, 1989) with maximum male and female life expectancy assumed to be 83.3 and 90 years, respectively. These maxima were revised upward in 1991 because previously used maxima are now barely above the currently estimated levels for the lowest mortality countries. Life expectancy in Japan, for instance, is estimated at 75.6 for males and 81.4 for females - only slightly below the previously used maxima. Research into the consequences of controlling major risk factors has found that thereotically much higher life expectancies are attainable. Bourgeois-Pichat, in an attempt to estimate the effect on the life span of eliminating exogenous" causes of death, obtained a maximum life expectancy of 76.3 for males and 78.2 for females. In 1978, he revised the limit, putting life expectancy for males slightly lower at 73.8 years and that for females higher, at 80.3 years (barely above the current estimates for Norway). Manton (1986) showed that an increase in life expectancy of 12.3 to 12.8 years in the expectation of life at age 30 years was possible with effective control of major risk factors. Even if no changes in mortality under 30 occurred this would result in an increase in male life span to abova 81 years. On the basis of this evidence and given the long range nature of these projections a higher maximum life span was considered appropriate. Future trends in life expectancy at birth. Life expectancy is projected from year 0 to year t using a logistic function over time of the form e, = ko + k / {1 + exp [logit(eo) + rt]}, with logit(eo) = log. [(k. + k - eo) / (eo - ko)]. Logistic functions are used because these fit past trends best, country by country. The schedules of medium change in life expectancy and infant mortality reflect median trends across countries, and the schedules for minimum and maximum change reflect the 10th and 90th percentile when country trends are ranked from slowest to fastest. The equations to predict short-term trends in life expectancy and infant mortality we.e estimated using these data; other socioeconomic factors, like per capita income, did not improve prediction. The logistic function is set to rise most rapidly from a level of 50 years or so and increasingly slowly at higher levels. The minimum (ko) for the logistic functions for both sexes is assumed to be 20 years, and the maxima (ko + k) are assumed to be 90 years for females and 83.3 years for males. The rate of change (r) for the logistic function is alowed to vary across countries, and for a given country to vary over time. For the first quinquennium (1985-90), the r;zie of change (r1) is estimated from the rate of change in the previous quinquennium (ro) and from the female secondary enrolment ratio (so), DATA AND METHOOS lxxIX using the equations r1 = .00379 + .723 ro - .000254 so for females, and = .01159 + .885 ro - .000318 so for males. Percent urban is used In a few cases, with a different equation (see Bulatao et al., 1989), where secondary enrolment is not available, and in fewer cases still the rate of change in the previous decade is used instead of the rate of change in the previous quinquennium when the latter appears to have been affected by exceptional circumstances. Limits are imposed on the rate of change for the first quinquennium (and for all other quinquennia), such that it cannot be greater than -.017 (which would give slow mortality decline) or less than -.053 (which would give rapid mortality decline). For the second quinquennium, the rate of change is estimated as a function of the rate of change for the first quinquennium: r2 = .0.007 + 0.7 r,. ,__________________________________________________ The rate of change for the third Table Al Assumed annual Increments to life expectancy quinquennium is estimated from the rate of change for the second quinquennium in the Initial Males Females same manner. This equation txpec- allows rates of change to tancy Nfnimnu NedfLn Naximun Nininun Nediun Maxinun converge toward the uniform pattern imposed for subsequent quinquennia. 40 0.14 0.34 0.55 0.14 0.36 0.58 45 0.15 0.38 0.61 0.16 0.40 0.65 For these subsequent 55 0.16 0.39 0.623 0.17 0.43 0.69 quinquennia for all countries, 60 0.15 0.37 0.59 0.17 0.43 0.68 the rate of change In life 65 0.13 0.32 0.52 0.16 0.40 0.69 expectancy is constant at -.035 75 0.07 0.18 0.28 0.12 0.36 0.57 forbothsexes. At this rate, the 80 0.03 0.08 0.12 0.09 0.21 0.34 annual increments to life 85 - - - 0.05 0.11 0.18 expectancy vary by initial levels as indicated by the medium pattern in Table Al. Minimum and maximum increments corresponding to the slow and rapid limits imposed on rates of change in the first three quinquennia are also shown. Future trends min fant mortality. Infant mortality is projected using a similar logistic function. The rate of change for each of the first three quinquennia is obtained from the equation rt = .0275 + .5 r,.1, with the restriction that this rate must be in the range [.024, .130]. These limits provide schedules of minimum and maximum annual decrements to infant mortality, varying by the initial rate, shown in Table A2. A set of medium decrements is also provided, representing the typical schedule of improvements toward which rates of change converge when the preceding equation is applied successively. A minimum attainable level of infant mortality of 3 per thousand was used instead of the previously assumed 6 per thousand. This level is roughly equivalent to the level attainable under booc DATA AND METHQD9 Table A2 Assumed annual decrements the extended life expectancy assumptions employed. to infant mortality rate Selection of life tables. initial fnfant Those life tables are selected from mortality Mmmi. gedju x the Coale-Demeny models (Coale and Demeny 1983) rate___ Nfn_____ N_________x___ that provide the projected life expectancy and infant 150 0.83 2.08 4 * 02 mortality rates for the first three quinquennia. First, 140 0.92 2.32 4.47 a level of the life tables is chosen to give the desired 130 1.00 2.50 4.81 infant mortality rate (interpolation is used if 120 1.13 2.63 5.03 necessary). Mortality rates up to age 14 are taken 110 1.16 2.69 5.15 from this life table. Second, another level of the life 100 1.16 2.71 5.16 90 1.14 2.66 5.07 table is chosen to give rates for ages 15 and older 80 1.10 2.56 4.86 such that the desired level of life expectancy is 70 1.03 2.41 4.56 obtained. Among the four Coale-Demeny families 60 0.93 2.20 4.16 50 0.81 1.94 3.65 (North, South, East, and West), that family is chosen 40 0.67 1.62 3.05 which minimizes the divergence between the two 30 0.50 1.26 2.35 coe ees 20 0.31 0.84 1:56 chosen levels. 10 0.09 0.36 0.68 For subsequent quinquennia, only life expectancy is used in determining levels, and the West family is used consistently. Suvorship ratios from these model life tables were specified for the first three quinquennia and for 2025-30, 2050-55, and 2100-05. The projection program used, ProjPC-II (Hill, forthcoming ), was allowed to interpolate linearly for intervening periods, to facilitate a smooth transition across life table families where this was necessary. Projecing fenw Future fertility trends are specified by quinquennial total fertility and by a year when the net reproduction rate reaches unity, i.e., when the average woman's fertility results in exactly replacing herselt (This is referred to here as the replacement year.) Separate procedures are applied for three stages of the fertility transition: the pretransition stage, when fertility is high and sustained fertility decline has not stared; the transition stage, when fertility is high to medium and sustained fertility decline is in progress; and the late-transition and posttransition stage. We discuss procedures for determining total ferility in each stage and then explain what age-specific patterns of fertility were applied. For current purposes, a fertility transition is assumed to have started if a country has experienced a drop in total ferdlity of at least .5 points over any five-year period, or if total fertility is already below 4.5 after a more gradual decline (Bulatao and Elwan 1985). The pretransition stage is the stage before any such decline is evident. The late-transition and posttransition stage is defined by a total fertility rate one point above replacement level (about 3.15) or lower. Countries in the pretransition stage are assumed to start a fertility transition in the quinquennium after combined male and female life expectancy reaches 50 years, but in no case later than 2005. The life expectancy threshold is slightly lower than the threshold of 53 years previously shown to be a universal precondition, though not a sufficient condition, for the start of fertility transition (Bulatao and Elwan 1985). Until a transition starts, total fertility is assumed to be constant. The one exception is where sterility is a significant factor, sterility is then assumed to decline linearly DATA AND METHODS bOOd to 6 percent over three quinquennia, with each percentage point drop in sterility raising total fertility by.11 points (Frank 1983). In the transition stage, the rate of fertility decline is based on the rate in the preceding quinquennium, assuming transition had already started in that period. With previous annual change represented by DTn, annual change during the transition is set at (-.05 + .5 DnR). However, limits are set on this change: it must be at least -.073 points and at most -.210 points, which may be taken to define slow and rapid fertility decline. (Previous analysis in Bulatao and Elwan 1985 deflned rapid decline as an annual total fertility change of -.2164 points, which is consistent.) If the formula does not apply because transition has just started, an average annual decline in total fertility of .06 points for the first five year of the transition and 0.12 annually for subsequent quinquennia is imposed. In the early part of the transition stage, the sterility adjustment is applied if appropriate to raise total fertility slightly. In the late-transition and posttransition stage, fertility approaches replacement level, either from slightly above or slightly below it. Four alternative patterns: * Generally, a geometric function is imposed on total fertility decline from one point above replacement level to replacement level, with this decline assumed to take 15 years. i Where total fertility has shown unusually slow decline, it is assumed to take 20 rather than 1S years for total fertility to fall one point to replacement. * Where, toward the end of a fertility transition, total fertility is still recording rapid declines even though it is close to or even below replacement level (2.25 to 1.75), it is assumed to fall further for one period, generally going below replacement, to stay constant in the next period, and then to return to replacement. * Where the transition has been completed and total fertility is below replacement, it is assumed to stay at the current level for two quinquennia, and then to return gradually to replacement, along a linear path, by 2030. In applying late-transition procedures, the level of total fertility that provides replacement is approximated by a quadratic formula based on female life expectancy (e(f0) in the replacement year: TFRNRRl.. = 6.702 -.1107 e(f + .0006592 e(()2 The replacement year is first approximated in order to determine life expectancy and then calculated given this formula and whichever pattern of fertlity change above is appropriate. For all stages of fertility transition, the age pattern of fertility is determined in the same fashion, depending on the level of total fertility (Figure A2). Two basic schedules of age-specific fertility are defined: for total fertility levels greater than six and for total fertility levels of three and lower. In between, age patterns are obtained by interpolation between the two schedules. At a total fertility level of six, a greater proportion of births are at younger and older ages of the reproductive span, and the mean age of childbearing is 2&9 years. At a total fertility level of three, births are concentrated in a narrower band of ages, and the mean age of childbearing is 28.0. These procedures were developed from preliminary analysis of total fertility trends in cross-national data (See Bos and Bulatao 1989). In the pretransition stage, countries showed mostly stable fertility. The transition stage was more interesting. Across 42 countries which started a fertility transition between 1955 and 1983, the average annual decline in total fertility ranged from 0.06 to 0.25 booxii DATA AND MErHODS Figure A2. Percentage of Total Fertiliy Assigned to Dffierent Ages, by Level of Total Ferility 20- 20 24 22 4 15-19 30-24 2 30-4 - 4044 40-46 points. Countries which had initial sharp declines in fertlity tended to continue declining rapi4ly, while tk.rc: that started with more gradual declines continued along the same path Rapid and slow de'!;ae were found in all regions. The rate of decline was predicted best by the rate in preceding periods; socioeconomic factors added little to this prediction. Other than the mortality threshold, socioeconomic factors also failed to predict the start of fertility transition. Projecting Migration Estimates of futu. i aet migrants by quinquennium up to the year 2000 are those prepared by Arnold (1989) as part of an examination of data and sources. These estimates are strongly affected by official policies and plans in the major receiving countries. The figures we-- designed to total zero in each quinquennium for the whole world. After the year 2000, the num.:er of net migrants is assuried to approach zero linearly in each country, at the estimated rate of el inge in their number froit, the period 1990-95 to the period 1995-2000, or at a rate that would make their number zero by 2025-30. whichever rate is faster. For these later periods, a zero total for worldwide net international migration was obtained by adjusting initial estimates of net migrants in three major receiving countries--the United States, Australia, and Canada--upward or downward as necessary by a proportion constant across these countries, but varying by quinquennium These adjustments were of 1 or 2 percent for the earlier periods, negligible compared to the volume of migration assumed for these countries, but were up to 10 percent for later F.riods. The age-sex distributions of migants are determined from alternative models based on their sex ratios. If migration is heavily male, migrants are assumed to be concentrated in the age group 15-30, with few children and elderly. If migration is more balanced between males and females, proportionally more migrants are assumed to be children and elderly (Hill, 1990). bIIV DATA AND METHODS Table A3 Sources Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertilfty, 1985-90 Afghanistan Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Albania Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) I.N.E.D., 1991 Algeria Bank est., from official 1/85 est. From Bank sector report 6/88 est. Angola U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Antigua and U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official CBR Barbuda Argentina U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Armenia Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses AustraLia Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/88) Austria Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) Bank est. based on Monier, 1988 Azerbaijan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Bahamas, The Off" at est. (UNDY 1988) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90) Bahrain Official est. (Central Stat. Org, Bahrain) Official est. (Central Stat. Org. Bahrain) Bangladesh Bank est. from 1979 and 1989 censuses Bank est. from 1989 Fertility Survey Barbados Official est. (UNPVSR) Bank est. from official CBR Belarus Official est. (UNDY 1989) Official est. (UNDY 1989 and UNPVSR 10/91) BeLgiun Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1990 Belize Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1985 Benin Bank projection from 1979 census Bank est. from 1961 survey and WFS Bhutan Official est. (Stat. Handbook of Bhutan, 1985) U.N. 1990 revision Bolivia U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Botswana Bank projection from 1981 census Bank est. from 1988 DHS BraziL U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. based on official CBR and 1990 population Brunei Bank est. from 1981 census and 1986 official Bank est., based on official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90) est. Bi,tgaria Bank est. from 1985 census (UNPVSR 7/91) Monnier, 1991 Burkina Faso Bank est. from 1985 census (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Burundi Bank projection from 1979 census U.N. 1990 revision Ciribodia U.N. 92 revision. (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Cameroon Bank est. from 1976 and 1987 censuses and 1991 DHS official 1987 est. Canada Official est. (UNDY 1988) Official est; (Stat. Canada) Cape Verde U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Central African U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Rep. Chad U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Channel Islands Bank est. from 1981 and 1986 censuses Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 7/91) Chile U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) China (excl. Bank est. from official year-end est. (State Bank est. from 1987 Demographic Survey and Taiwan) Statistical Bureau, 1990) 1990 census Colombia U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.5 Comoros Bank projection from 1980 census, exel. Mayotte From Bank sector report est. Congo, People's Bank F'oJection from 1984 census Official est. (Ministry of Econ. Planning) Rep. of the Costa Ric Official est. (DiOeccion General de Estadistica U.N. 1990 revision y Censos) Cote d'Ivoire U.N. 1992 revision Cprelim.) 198 census Croatia Official est. (Statistical Office, Blograde Bank est. from official es-. (Stat. Office, 1988) Belgrade, 1988) DATA AND METHODS looxv of Population Data Country economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortality, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Afghanistan Monnier, 1991 Official est. (UNPVSR 10/89-7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Albania U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Algeria U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Angola Bank est. from official CDR Bank est. based on official est. Bank est. from UNDY 1978 Antigua and Barbuda U.N. 1992 revision (prelim) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1900 revision. Argentina Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Armenia census report census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Australia Bank est. from official CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Austria Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Azerbaijan census report census report census report Bank est. from official CDR Official est. tUNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bahamas, The (UNPVSR 10/90) Bank est. from official 1986 est. Official est. (Central Stat. U.N. 1990 revisIon Bahrain (Central Stat. Org., Bahrain) Organization, 10/89) U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (Bureau of Stat.) U.N. 1990 revision Bangladesh U N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Barbados Official est. (UNDY 1989) Official est. (UNDY 1989) Official est. (UNDY 1989) Belarus Eurostat, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Belgiun Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. from UNDY 1978 Belize of the Census, 1985 of the Census, 1985 Bank est. based on WFS Bank est. from WFS Bank est. from 1979 census Benin U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revislon Bhutan U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Bolivia Bank est. based on 1988 DHS Bank est. from 1988 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Botswana U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Brazil Bank est. based on official est. Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from 1981 census Brunef U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Bulgarfa U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Burkina Faso U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Burundi U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revisIon Cambodia Bank est. from WFS U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1976 census Cameroon official est. (Stat. Canada) Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91: Official est. (Stat. Canada) Canada U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Cape Verde Bank est. from census U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1975 census Central African Rep. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Chad Bank est. from official CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 7/90) Bank est. from UNDY 1981 Chartl Islands (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Chile Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank east. China (exct. Taiwan) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Colorbia U.N. 1990 revisfon U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Comoros U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1984 census Bank est. Congo, People's Rep. of the U.N. 1990 revisfon U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revIsion Costa Rica 1988 census U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Cote d*Ivoire Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Croatia (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) bocxvi DATA AND METHODS Table J3 (continued) Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Cuba OfficiaL est. (UNJY 1988) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/88, 10/89) Cyprus Bank est. from official est. for 12/85 (UNPVSR Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/91) 4/87) Czechoslovakia U.N. 1990 revision Monnier, 1991 Denmark Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1989 Djibouti U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 199G revision Dominica Bank est. from 1981 and 1991 censuses Bank est. based on official CBR (UNPVSR 10/91) Dominican Rep. U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. based on 1986 DHS and 1991 DHS Ecuador Bank est. from 1990 census 1987 DHS Egypt U.N. 1990 revision 1988 DHS El Salvador U.N. 1990 revision 1988 Family Health Survey Equatorial Bank projection from 1983 census and 1982 Bank est. Guinea household listing Estonia Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 censuses Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report Ethiopia Official est. (Central Stat. Authority, 1988) Official est. (Central Stat. Authorfty, 1988) Fiji Bank est., from 1986 census Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Finland Official est. (UNDY 1988) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90, 7/91) France Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1989, 1990 French Polynesia Bank est. from official 1985 est. (UNPVSR Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 10/88) 1989, and official CBR (UNPVSR 10/89) Gabon Bank projection from 1981 census Bank est. Gambia, The Bank projection from 1983 census Bank est. Gaza Strip U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from COR for Gaza (West Bank Data Base Project) Georgia Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 censuses Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report Germany Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1990 (for Fed. Rep.) Ghana Official est. 1988 OHS Greece Eurostat, 1991 Bank est. based on Eurostat, 1989, 1990 Grenada Official est. (O.E.C.S. Statistical Digest, Bank est. from 1980-85 official est. (Ministry of 1987) Finance) Guadeloupe Bank est. from 1982 and 1990 censuses Bank est. from CBR and growth rate Guam U.S. Bureau uf the Census, 1988 Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989, and official CBR (UNPVSR 10/91) Guatemala U.N. 1990 revision 1987 DHS Guinea U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Guinea-Bissau Bank projection from 1979 census Bank est. Guyana Official est. (UNPVSR 10/90) Bank est. from official CBR Haiti U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Honduras U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Hong Kong U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. based on official CBR (UNPVSR 7/89) Hungary r'fficial est. (Central Stat. Office, 1987) Monmier, 1991 Iceland Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) Bank est. based on official CBR India Bank est. from 1981 and 1991 censuses U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1987 Indonesia Bank est. from 1990 census Bank est. from 1987 and 1991 DHS Iran, Islamic Bank est. from 1986 census Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, Rep. of 1989, and growth rate Iraq U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision DATA AND METHODS booxii Country, economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortality, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. from official est. U.N. 1990 revision Cuba (UNPVSR 10/88, 10/89) U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official est. U.N. 1990 revision Cyprus (UNPVSR 10/90) U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Czechoslovakia Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Denmark U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision DJibouti Bank est. from official CDR Bank est. from official est. Official est. (UNDY 1988) Dominica (UNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. from 1986 DNS U.N. 1990 revision Dominican Rep. U.N. 1990 revision 1987 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Ecuador U.N. 1990 revision 1988 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Egypt U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision El Salvador Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Equatorial Guinea Bank est. frait U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Estonia census report census report census report From Bank sector report est. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Ethiopia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Fiji Bank est. from official CDR Monnier, 1988 U.N. 1990 revision Finland (UNPVSR 10/90, 7/91) Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat, 1989, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 France Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. French Polynesia of the census 1989; offfcfal CMR of the census 1989 Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Gabon Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Gambia, The U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1988 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1988 Bank est. Gaza Strip Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Georgia census report census report census report Eurostat, 1990 (for Fed. Rep.) Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 (Fed. Rep.), Germany U.N. 1990 revision (Dem. Rep.) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1970 census Ghana Bank est. based on official CDR Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Greece Bank est. from 1980-85 official Bank est. Bank est. Grenada est. (Ministry of Finance) U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official est. U.N. 1990 revision Guadeloupe (UNPVSR 4/90) Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. Guam of the Census, 1989 of the Census, 1989 U.N. 1990 revision 1987 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Guatemala U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Guinea Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Guinea-BIssau U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Guyana U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Haiti U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revIsion U.N. 1990 revision Honduras U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 10/90) U.N. 1990 revision Hong Kong U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) Bank est. from 1980 census Hungary U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Iceland U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1981 census India Bank est. from 1987 and 1991 DHS, Bank est. from 1987 and 1991 DHS, Bank est. from 1990 census Indonesia and 1990 census and 1990 census U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Bank est. Iran, Islamic Rep. of U.N. 1990 revIsion U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Iraq boocvlil DATA AND METHODs Tabte *3 (continued) Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Ireland Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat 1989, 1991 Israel Official est. (UNPVSR 1/87) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Italy Eurostat, 1989 Eurostat 1989. 1990, 1991. Jamaica U.N. 1990 revision Bank estimate based on CBR Japan Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) Official est. (Ministry of Health and Welfare) Jordan Bank est. from official est. (Stat. Yearbook, Bank est. 1983 Family Health Survey and 1990 DHS 1987) Kazakhstan Sank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Kenya Official est. 1989 DHS Kiribati Official est. (UNPVSR 1/88) Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Korea, Peoplefs U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Dem. Rep. of Korea, Rep. of Official est. (Econ. Planning Bureau, 1988) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 1/89) Kuwait Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) U.N. 1990 revision Kyrgyzstan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. frem U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Lao People's U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Dem. Rep. Latvia Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Lebanon U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 190 revision Lesotho Bank projection from 1986 census Bank est. from 1977 lFS Liberia U.N. 190 revision 1986 DHS Libya U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lithuania Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Luxembourg Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1989, 190, 1991. Macao Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) Bank est. from official CBR CUNPVSR 10/89, 10/90) Madagascar Official est. (UNPVSR 10/90) Bank assessment of 1980 survey Malawi Bank est. from 1987 census Bank est. from 1977 censuw Malaysia Official est. (Dept. of Stat.) U.N. 1990 revision Maldives Bank projection from 1985 census Bank est. from official CBR for 1980-1985 Mali Bank projection from 1976 census 1987 DHS Malta U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/89, 10i90) Martinique U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Mauritania Bank projection from 1988 census Official est. from 1988 censu Mauritius U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Mexico Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) U.N. 1990 revision Micronesia, Fed. Official est. (ESCUA Stat. Yearbook for Asia Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, States of and the Pacific, 1988) 1989 Moldova Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank eat. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Mongolia Bank projection from 1989 census U.N. 1990 revision Montserrat Official est. (UNDY 1986) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 1/87) Morocco Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from 1987 DHS Mozambique Bank projection from 1980 censu Bank est. Myarnar U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Namibia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision DATA AND METHODS bOIxxx Country, economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortaltty, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory Bank est. based on official CDR Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Ireland U.N. 1992 revision (pretim.) Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1990 revision Israel Eurostat 1990. 1991 Eurostat, 1990. 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Italy U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Jamaica Official est. (Ministry of U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (Ministry of Japan Health and UWlfare) Health and Welfare) U.N. 1990 revision U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1989 Bank est. Jordan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Kazakhstan census report census report censu report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Kenya Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. Kiribati of the Census, 1989 of the Census, 1989 U.N. 1990 revisIon U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Korea, People's Dem. Rep. of U.N. 1990 revision Bank est., based on official CDR U.N. 1990 revision Korea, Rep. of U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from official est. U.N. 1990 revision Kuwaft (UNPVSR 10/90) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Kyrghyzstan census report census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lao People's Dem. Rep. Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Latvia census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lebanon official est. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Lesotho U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 190 revision U.N. 1990 revision Liberia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 190 revision Libya Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Lithuania census report census report Eurostat, 1990, 1991 Eurostat 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Luxembourg Bank est. Bank est. Bank est. Macao Bank est. from 1980 and 1984 U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Madagascar surveys U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Malawi Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. U.N. 1990 revision Malaysia Bank est. from 1990 census Bank est. from 1990 census Bank est. Maldives Bank est. from 1976 census U.N. 190 revision Bank est. Mali U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVBR 10/90) U.N. 190 revision Malta U.N. 1992 revision (preltim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 190 revision Martinique U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Mauritania Bank est. based on official est. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Mauritfus (UNPVSR 7/86) U.N. 190 revision U.N. 190 revfsion U.N. 1990 revision Mexico Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Micronesia, Fed. of the Census, 1989 of the Census, 1989 of thc Census, 1989 States of Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Moldova census report census report census report U.N. 190 revision U.N. 190 revision U.N. 190 reviston Mongolta Bank est., based on official Bank est. UNDY 1988 Montserrat est. (UNPVSR 1/87) U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1988 DHS U.N. 190 revision Morocco Bank est. from official CDR U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Mozambique U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 190 revision U.N. 1990 revision Myarmar U.N. 190 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 190 revfsion Namibia xc DATA AND METHODS Table A3 (continued) Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 NepaL Offfical est. (Central Bureau of Stat.) lank est. from survey NetherLands Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1989, 1991 NetherLands Bank est. from 1971 and 1981 censuses Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, Antitles 1987, and official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90) New Caledonia Bank est. from 1983 census and 1986 officiat Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, est tUNPVSR 10/89) 1989 New Zealand Bank est. from official 1985 est. U.N. 1990 revision Nicaragua U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Niger Bank projection of 1988 census U.N. 1990 revision Nigeria Bank projection from 1963 census Bank est. from 1991 DHS Norway Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/88-9/91) Oawn U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Pakistan Bank est. from U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. based on growth rate Panama U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Papua New Guinea U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Paraguay U.N. 1990 revision 1990 DHS Peru Bank projection from 1981 census Bank est. from Bank assessment for 1980-85 Philippines Bank est. from official est. (UNPVSR 10/88) Bank est. from official est. (Nat. Stat. Office) Poland Official est. (UNPVSR 7/86) Monnier, 1991 Portugal Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1989, 1991 Puerto Rico U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. from official CBR Qatar Bank est. from 1986 census and 1989 officiat Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/90) est. (UNPVSR 10/90) Reunion U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Romania Official est. tUNPVSR 10/89) Official est. (Stat. Yearbook of Romania, 1990) Russian Fed. Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Rwanda U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Sao Tome and Bank est. from 1981 and 1991 censuses Bank est. Principe Saudi Arabia Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Senegal Bank est. from 1988 census 1986 DHS Seychelles Official est. (Stat. Bulletin of MIS Division) Bank est. from official CBR Sierra Leone Bank est. from 1985 census Bank est. from 1974 census Singapore Bank est. from 1980 and 1990 censuses Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 1/89, 10/89) Slovenia Official est. (Statistical Office, Belgrade Bank est. from official est. (Stat. Office, 1988) Belgrade, 1988) Solomon Islands Bank est. from 1986 census U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Somalia Bank est. from 1987 census Bank est. South Africa U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Spain Eurostat, 1991 Bank est. from official CBR, and Eurostat, 1989, 1991 Sri Lanka Official est. tUNPVSR 4/87) 1987 DHS St. Kitts and Official est. tStatis- ics office, Ptanning Bank est. from official CBR (Statistics Office, Nevis Unit) Planning Unit) St. Lucia Official est. (UNPVSR 1/88) Bank est. from official CBR St. Vincent and Bank est. from 1980 and 1991 censuses Bank est. from official CBR tUNPVSR 10/89, 10/91) the Grenadines Sudan Bank projection from 83 census U.N. 1990 revision Suriname Official est. (Central Bureau of Civil Bank est. from official CBR (Central Bureau of Affairs) Civil Affairs) Swaziland U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1991 revision Sweden Official est. (UNPVSR 4/87) Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 10/89, 10/90) DATA AND METHODS xci Country, economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortality, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory U.N. 1990 revision Government Survey Bank est. Nepal U.N. 1990 revision Eurostat, 1989, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Netherlands Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Official est. (UNPVSR 10/90) UNDY 1988 Netherlands of the Census and UNPVSR 10/90 Antilles Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. New Caledonia of the Census, 1989 of the Census, 1989 U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision New Zealand U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Nicaragua U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Niger U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Nigeria U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 10/88-7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Norway U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Oman Bank est. Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) Bank est. Pakistan U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Panama U.N. 1990 revision U.N. Stat. Yearbook for Asia and U.N. 1990 revision Papua New Guinea Pacific, 1988 U.N. 1990 revision 1990 OHS U.N. 1990 revision Paraguay Bank est. 1986 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Peru Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Philippines Bank est. from official CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Poland Eurostat 1989, i990 & 1991 Eurostat, 1989, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 Portugal Bank est. based on CMR Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1990 revision Puerto Rico U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Qatar U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Reunion Official est. (Stat. Yearbook Official est. U.N. 1990 revision Romania of Romania, 1991) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Russian Fed. census report census report census report U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Rwanda Bank est. from official CDR Bank est. from official est. Bank est. Sao Tome and CUNPVSR 7/89) (UNPVSR 7/89) Prlncipe U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Saudi Arabia Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Official est. Senegal Bank est. Official est. UNDY 1984 Seychelles U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Sierra Leone U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 1/89) U.N. 1990 revision Singapore Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Slovenia (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) Bank est. from official 1980-84 Bank est. Bank est. Solomon Islands est. (Stat. Bulletin, Honiara) Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Somalia U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision South Africa Eurostat, 1991 Bank est. based on Eurostat, Eurostat, 1989 Spain 1989, 1990, 1991 U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. from 1987 DHS U.N. 1990 revision Sri Lanka Bank est. from official CDR Bank est. from official est. Official est. from 1980 census St. Kitts and (Stat. Office, Planning Unit) Nevis Sank est. from official CDR Bank est. from official est. Official est. from 1980 census St. Lucia Bank est. from official CDR Official est. (UNPVSR 10/89, UNDY 1983 St. Vincent and (UNPVSR 10/89, 10/91) 10/91) the Grenadines U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Sudan Bank est. from official CDR, Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision SurSname (Central Bureau of Civil Affairs) Bank est. Bank est. Bank est. Swaziland U.N. 1990 revision Official est. (UNPVSR 10/88-7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Sweden xcli DATA AND METHODS Table A3 (continued) Country, economy, or territory Total population, mid-1985 Total fertility, 1985-90 Switzerland Official est. (UNDY 1988) Bank est from officiaL CBR (PVSR 10/90, 10/91) Syrian Arab Rep. U.N. 1992 Rev. (Prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Taiwan, China Bank est. based on official year-end east. Bank est. from official CBR (Taiwan Stat. Data (Stat. Data Book, 1987) Book, 1987) Tajikistan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Tanzania Bank est. from 1978 and 1988 censuses From Bank sector report est. Thailand Official est. (Nat gcon and Soc Dev Board, U.N. 1990 revision 1985) Togo Bank projection of 1981 census 1987 OHS Tonga Bank projection from 1984 mini-census Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Trinidad and U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. based on 1987 OHS Tobago Tunisia Official est. (UNPVSR 1/88) Bank est. based on 1988 DHS Turkey Official est. (Social Indicators, Turkey, Bank est. from official CUR (UNPVSR 10/91) 1990) Turkmenistan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Uganda Bank projection from 1969, 1980, and 1991 1988/89 DHS censuses Ukraine Official est. (UNDY 1989) Official est. (UNDY 1989) United Arab U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Emirates United Kingdom Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat 1989, 1991 United States of Official est. (UNDY 1989) Official est. (Nat. Center for Health Stat.) America Uruguay Official est. from 1985 census Bank est. from official est. Uzbekistan Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1979 and 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 census report censuses Vanuatu Bank est. from 1979 and 1989 censuses Bank est. based on U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Venezuela Official est. (UNPVSR 1/87) U.N. 1990 revision Viet Nam Bank est. from 1989 census Bank est. from 1989 census Virgin Islands U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1985 Bank est. from official CBR (UNPVSR 4/90) (U.S.) West Bank U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Western Samoa Bank est. from 1986 census Bank est. from 1986 census Yemen, Rep. of Bank est. from 1988 census Yemen P.D.R. and Bank eat. based on U.N. 1990 revision 1986 census for Yemen A.R. Yugoslavia Official est. (Statistical Office, Belgrade Bank est. from official est. (Stat. Office, 1988) Belgrade, 1988) Zaire U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. Zambia Bank projection from 1980 census From Bank sector report est. Zimbabwe Bank projection from 1982 census 1988 DHS DATA AND METHODS Xciii Country, economy, or Life expectancy, 1985-90 Infant mortality, 1985-90 Age-sex structure, 1990 territory Bank est. from official est. Official est. (UNPVSR 7/91) U.N. 1990 revision Switzerland (UNPVSR 10/90, 10/91; UNDY 1987) U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1992 revision (preltm.) U.N. 1990 revision Syrian Arab Rep. Bank est. from official CDR Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau Official est. (Taiwan Stat. Taiwan, China (Taiwan Stat. Data Book, 1987) of the Census, 1987 Data Book, 1987) Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Tajikistan census report census report census report From Bank sector report est. From Bank sector report est. Bank sector report est. Tanzania Based on official proj. 1985 Based on 1987 DNS U.N. 1990 revision Thailand U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Togo Bank est. Bank est., based on U.S. Bureau Bank est. Tongs of the Census, 1989 U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) Bank est. based on 1987 OHS U.N. 1990 revision Trinidad and Tobago U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Tunisia Official est. from 1985 census Official est. from 1985 census U.N. 1990 revision Turkey Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Turkmenistan census report census report census report Bank est. U.N. 1990 revision Bank est. Uganda Official est. (UNDY 1989 and Official est. (UNDY 1989) UNDY 1989 Ukraine UNPVSR 10/91) U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision United Arab Emirates Eurostat, 1991 Eurostat, 1989, 1990, 1991 Eurostat, 1989 United Kingdom Official est. (Nat. Center for Official est. (Nat. Center for U.N. 1990 revision United States of Heatth Stats., and Census Bureau) Health Stats., and Census Bureau) America Official est. from 1985 census U.N. 1992 revision (prelim.) U.N. 1990 revision Uruguay Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Bank est. from U.S.S.R. 1989 Uzbekistan census report census report census report Bank est. Bank est. from official est. Bank est. Vanuatu U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Venezuela Bank est, based on 1988 survey Bank est. from 1989 census Bank est. from 1989 census Viet Nam Bank est. from official COR Official est. (UNPVSR 10/91) Official est. from 1980 census Virgin Islands (UNPVSR 4/90) (U.S.) U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1989 Bank est. West Bank Bank est. from official 1986 est. Bank est. based on official est. Bank est. from 1986 census Western Samoa Bank est. based on U.N. 1990 Bank est. based on U.N. 1990 Bank est. based on U.N. 1990 Yemen, Rep. of Bank est. from official est. Bank est. from official est. Bank est. frrod official est. Yugoslavia (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) (Stat. Office, Belgrade, 1988) U.N. 1990 revision Bank estimate U.N. 1990 revision Zaire From Bank sector report est. U.N.1990 revision U.N. 1990 revision Zambia 1988 DHS OHS, 1988 Bank eat. Zimbabwe XCiV DATA AND METIHoDs REFERENCES Arnold, Fred. 1989. Revised estimates and projections of international migration. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers, No. 275. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bourgeois-Pichat, Jean. 1978. Future outlook for mortality decline in the world. Populaton Bulletin of the United Nations. 11:12-41. Bos, Eduard, and Rodolfo A. Bulatao. 1989. Projecting fertility for all countries. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers, WPS 500. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bos, Eduard, My T. Vu, and Patience W. Stephens. 1992. Sources of World Bank estimates of current mortality rates. Policy Research Working Papers, WPS 851. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., Eduard Bos, Patience W. Stephens and My T. Vu 1989. Projecting mortality for all countries. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Papers. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., Eduard Bos, Patience W. Stephens and My T. Vu 1990. World Population Projections. 1989-90 Edition. Johns Hopkins University Press. Baltimore. Maryland. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., and Ann Elwan. 1985. Fertility and mortality transition: Patterns, projections, and Interdependence. World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 681. Washington, D.C. Coale, Ansley J., and Guang Guo. 1989. Revised regional model life tables at very low levels of mortality. Unpublished paper. Office of Population Research, Princeton University. Eurostat. 1991. Demographic Statistics. Luxembourg: Statistical Office of the European Communities. Mill, Kenneth. 1990. PROJ3S - A Computer Program for Population Projections. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Manton, Kenneth 0. 1986. Past and future life expectancy increases at later ages: Their implications for the linkage of chronic morbidity, disability and mortality. Joumal of Gerontology 41:672-681. Monnier, Alain and Catherine de Guibert-Lantoine. 1991. 'La conjoncture demographique: L'Europe et les pays dhveloppds d'outre-mer," Population 46(4):943-961. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. 1990. World Populaion Prospects 1990. New York: United Nations. United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Various years. Population and Vaal Statistics Report. New York United Nations. DATA AND METHODS xcv ADDENDUM This section was produced after the projections were completed, just before the papers were issued. Its purpose is to list the results of censuses and surveys that came to our attention too late to be incorporated. Note that these are usually preliminary results that have not been evaluated for data quality, i.e., undercounts in censuses or sampling errors in surveys. Differences with the estimates in the main tables in this volume are therefore not necessarily inconsistencies. Bolivia: Preliminary result of June 1992 census gives total population of 6.3 million. Djibouti: Intercensal survey (EDI) of 1991 gives total population of 519,900. Malaysia: Preliminary result of the August 1991 census is 17,566,982 persons. Underenumeration in the 1980 census was estimated at 4.4 percent. Nigeria: Preliminary result of the November 1991 census shows a total of 88,514,501 million people. Pakistan: Integrated Household Survey (PIHS) of 1991 estimates the IMR at 121 for 1986-90. Peru: Preliminary estimates from the 1991-92 Encuesta Demografica y de Salud Familiar (ENDES-DHS) shows the IMR at 55 for the five-year period preceding the survey and the TFR at 3.5 for the three years preceding the survey. Zambia: Preliminary estimates from the Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS) of 1992 show the IMR at 108 for the five-year period preceding the survey and the TFR at 6.3 for the three years preceding the survey. Detailed Population Projections World, Geographic Regions, and Income Groups 2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS WORLD Populatfon ProJection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 4827212 5267831 5720651 6167907 6611985 7049458 7483922 7918682 8345351 8751064 MALES 0-4 294052 321536 332798 334792 339236 344538 351515 360326 365378 365216 5-9 266550 286789 314576 326358 329061 333822 339608 347143 356522 362206 10-14 266278 264407 284599 312407 324234 327024 331892 337848 345584 355174 15-19 252761 264159 262308 282431 310167 322032 324916 329896 336020 343951 20-24 224730 249938 261280 259483 279431 307119 319137 322053 327185 333530 25-29 197166 221789 246C40 258172 256330 276168 303814 315802 318978 324298 30-34 178794 194420 218928 243887 255099 253308 273071 300706 312796 316163 35-39 146535 176009 191530 215954 240719 251898 250191 269901 297548 309778 40-44 118843 143614 172742 188168 212393 236958 248115 246536 266192 293842 45-49 108617 115512 139869 168557 183784 207745 232058 243206 241S20 261409 50-54 98754 104154 111000 134785 162775 177708 201276 225221 236357 235261 55-59 85172 92720 98068 104858 127815 154786 169329 192349 215790 226918 60-64 68612 77445 84668 89969 96693 118476 144053 158084 180358 203119 65-69 48128 59371 67466 74280 79528 86042 106226 129908 143224 164443 70-74 36165 38456 47942 55097 61386 66365 72519 90541 111663 123959 75+ 37925 43585 48657 58870 71070 83307 94702 106734 129043 160999 TOTAL 2429082 2653904 2883270 3108068 3329723 3547296 3762324 3976253 4184458 4380264 FEMALES 0-4 280801 309476 320755 323152 327553 332398 338806 346963 351478 350938 5-9 25353! 273988 303059 315088 318275 322939 328204 335096 343752 348826 10-14 25322i 251547 272006 301185 313312 316567 321323 326741 333813 342662 15-19 240870 251326 249750 270218 299394 311563 314911 319784 325375 332648 20-24 215380 238506 249058 247636 268026 297206 309464 312964 318017 323855 25-29 189392 212830 235970 246648 245304 265645 294863 307258 310966 316260 30-34 172264 186864 210282 233436 244160 242909 263233 292519 305091 309052 35-39 141935 169695 184287 207679 230767 241526 240409 260746 290128 302921 40-44 115844 139413 166953 181533 204823 227803 238623 237682 258053 287546 45-49 106844 113193 136560 163826 178339 201458 224314 235216 234503 254913 50-54 98489 103574 109960 133059 159928 174314 197209 219909 230922 230505 55-59 87240 94299 99407 105847 128574 154865 169108 191726 214249 225434 60-64 76200 81817 88774 93921 100429 122589 148126 162217 184511 206864 65-69 56941 69058 74523 81339 86553 93051 114447 138981 152917 174842 70-74 46668 48410 59594 64811 71434 76550 83010 103314 126456 140186 75+ 62505 69931 76443 90459 105392 120779 135548 151312 180660 223346 TOTAL 2398130 2613927 2837381 3059839 3282263 3502162 3721598 3942429 4160892 4370800 BIRTH RATE 27.2 25.7 23.7 22.2 20.9 19.9 19.2 18.3 17.2 DEATH RATE 9.7 9.2 8.6 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.75 1.65 1.51 1.39 1.28 1.20 1.13 1.05 .95 NET MIGRATION RATE -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.75 1.65 1.51 1.39 1.28 1.20 1.13 1.05 .95 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.428 3.233 3.019 2.872 2.733 2.605 2.518 Z.441 2.360 NRR 1.459 1.381 1.306 1.267 1.223 1.173 1.143 1.122 1.098 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 64.87 65.98 67.23 68.49 69.43 70.45 71.56 72.75 74.04 eS15) - BOTH SEXES 55.61 56.20 56.88 57.56 58.17 58.84 59.55 60.32 61.15 IMR - BOTH SEXES 68.8 62.7 56.5 50.0 45.3 40.1 34.9 29.7 24.2 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0961 .0874 .0784 .0687 .0625 .0555 .0484 .0411 .0335 DEP. RATIO 65.1 63.0 62.6 61.0 58.0 55.1 53.8 53.9 54.4 55.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 3 Su..ary ProJection for 25-Year Perfods WORLD AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 4827212 6167907 8345351 10055421 11092173 11651991 11938278 12078606 MALES 0-4 294052 334792 365378 362462 362250 362246 362268 362207 5-9 266550 326358 356522 361217 361542 361845 362008 361953 10-14 266278 312407 345584 360107 361064 361684 361971 361911 15-19 252761 282431 336020 359204 360526 361330 361723 361692 20-24 224730 259483 327185 358746 359432 360422 360960 361053 25-29 197166 250172 318978 355681 357966 358977 359798 360059 30-34 178794 243887 312796 347107 355808 357413 358567 359035 35-39 146535 215954 297548 334498 353121 355625 357285 357979 40-44 118843 188168 266192 322710 350210 353455 355544 356501 45-49 108617 168557 241820 311223 347108 350353 352918 354189 50-54 98754 134785 236357 298537 339388 345182 348373 350231 55-59 85172 104858 215790 284645 323337 336748 341569 344286 60-64 68612 89969 180358 258747 300040 324633 331939 335886 65-69 48128 74280 143224 214943 272840 307601 317968 323313 70-74 36165 55097 111663 174816 239850 283291 296936 304075 75+ 37925 58870 129043 296212 440338 564953 647496 687468 TOTAL 2429082 3108068 418458 5000856 5484821 5745757 58M25 5941837 FEMALES 0-4 280801 323152 351478 347592 346932 346510 346455 346406 5-9 253533 315088 343752 346841 346523 346307 346283 346240 10-14 253226 301185 333813 346132 346265 346292 346274 346226 15-19 240870 270218 325375 345839 346129 346252 346203 346174 20-24 215380 247636 318017 346459 345861 346069 345988 346047 25-29 189392 246648 310966 345021 345596 345684 345766 345856 30-34 172264 233436 305091 338066 344607 345118 345442 345622 35-39 141935 207619 290128 327081 343110 344325 345046 345315 40-44 11584 181533 258053 317127 341696 343447 344486 344840 45-49 106844 163826 234503 307844 340668 342131 343578 344069 50-54 98489 133059 230922 298055 336601 340101 341987 342919 55-59 87240 105847 214249 288047 325869 336418 339598 341193 60-64 (6200 93921 184511 267510 309615 331009 336208 338792 65-69 56941 81339 152917 228759 291821 323762 331517 335276 70-74 46668 64811 126456 195515 270424 313231 323981 329514 75+ 62505 90459 180660 408677 625635 809578 932141 992279 TOTAL 2398130 3059839 4160892 5054565 5607352 5906234 6060953 6136768 BIRTH RATE 25.4 20.0 15.7 13.5 12.5 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 9.1 8.0 8.3 9.6 10.5 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.63 1.21 .75 .39 .20 .10 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.216 2.623 2.231 2.078 2.064 2.057 2.055 e(0) - BOTH SEXES 66.09 70.66 75.96 79.92 82.36 84.39 85.21 INR - BOTH SEXES 62.6 39.9 18.0 7.5 4.4 2.5 2.2 4 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS LDC Poputation Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 l199 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL MIF 3649732 4053342 "471202 4W85762 5299238 5710319 6121662 6535814 6944289 7334724 MALES 0-4 249588 276595 288354 291419 295905 301008 307848 316614 321658 321417 5-9 222483 242250 269614 281861 285662 290491 296100 303508 312853 318538 10-14 220969 220264 240026 267392 279703 283608 288560 294347 301963 311524 15-19 206221 218846 218193 237861 265172 277534 281543 286612 292571 300387 20-24 177711 203378 216005 215363 234893 262194 274635 278785 284021 290216 25-29 149161 174716 200310 212874 212234 231711 259018 271547 275875 281321 30-34 132454 146470 171940 197391 209866 209317 228758 256072 268714 273243 35-39 103023 129882 143819 169117 194382 206843 206396 225792 253124 265903 40-44 8440 100521 127059 140840 165886 19097 203392 203059 222398 249725 45-49 75686 81693 97499 123563 137101 161826 186616 199000 198825 218069 50-54 66200 72240 78118 93514 118858 132082 156315 180676 192974 193019 55-59 55421 61825 67602 73313 88109 112458 125247 148769 172520 184687 60-64 42867 50009 55988 61450 66946 80935 103905 116092 138622 161524 65-69 31356 36687 43011 48477 53553 58730 71603 92684 104029 125167 7C-74 21458 24634 29055 34378 39211 43733 48433 59781 78317 88486 75+ 19182 23534 27997 33649 40974 48929 57108 65624 79787 103603 TOTAL 1858219 2063544 2274589 2482462 2688454 2892358 3095479 3298963 3498252 3686829 FEMALES 0-4 238254 26"665 278452 281890 286349 291010 297295 305419 309935 309330 5-9 211480 231315 260181 272692 276952 281702 286808 293589 302226 307315 10-14 210000 209377 229263 256220 270854 275202 280064 285332 292304 301144 15-19 196555 207979 207508 227381 256365 269066 273527 278517 283972 291156 20-24 169763 193947 205559 205204 225058 254096 266927 271566 276762 282487 25-29 142364 166934 191239 202930 202721 222587 251715 264714 269590 275058 30-34 126439 139683 164.301 188578 200363 200289 220177 249396 262592 267741 35-39 98524 123863 137141 161688 185920 197762 197841 217754 247079 260504 40-44 81114 96157 121295 134527 158959 183087 194990 195241 215187 244619 45-49 72824 78737 93633 118470 131615 155854 179839 191803 192263 212236 50-54 64039 70042 75939 90618 115039 128043 152014 175805 187846 183570 55-59 54043 60640 66546 72415 86793 0635 123467 147091 170647 182805 60-64 43381 49807 56171 61949 67778 81718 104789 117414 140603 163896 65-69 33273 38154 44120 so5ss 55769 61497 74837 96864 109237 131882 70-74 24141 27029 31329 36639 42221 47530 53076 65548 86099 98098 75+ 25321 29467 33936 39941 48030 57884 68818 80797 99694 131055 TOTAL 1791513 1989798 2196612 2403299 2610784 2817962 3026183 3236851 3446036 3647895 BIRTH RATE 31.0 29.0 26.5 24.5 22.9 21.6 20.6 19.5 18.2 DEATH RATE 9.7 9.2 8.6 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.13 1.98 1.79 1.64 1.SO 1.40 1.31 1.21 1.09 NET MIGRATION RATE -.3 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.10 1.96 1.77 1.62 1.49 1.39 1.31 1.21 1.09 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.903 3.585 3.284 3.074 2.885 2.718 2.604 2.507 2.406 NRR 1.616 1.497 1.393 1.337 1.277 1.211 1.171 1.144 1.113 eCO) - B0TH SEXES 61.94 63.23 64.67 66.11 67.24 68.44 69.73 71.09 72.54 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 54.05 54.61 55.29 55.97 56.68 57.43 58.23 59.08 59.99 INR - BOTH SEXES 76.8 69.9 62.9 55.6 50.4 44.6 38.8 32.9 26.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1077 .0976 .0874 .0766 .0696 .0617 .0537 .0456 .0372 DEP. RATIO 70.4 67.0 65.9 63.5 59.4 55.6 53.4 52.9 52.7 53.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 5 Suarr Projectfon for 25-Year Perfods LDC AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL MF 3649732 4885762 6944289 8622788 9654232 10200047 10475017 10609578 MALES 0-4 249588 291419 321658 318729 318521 318515 318535 318475 5-9 222483 281861 312853 317555 317850 318144 318305 318252 10-14 220969 267392 301963 316469 317370 317985 318273 318216 15-19 206221 237861 292571 315541 3168so 317657 318052 318022 20-24 lmi 215363 284021 315163 315848 316835 317367 317453 25-29 149161 212874 275875 312354 314547 315523 316321 316569 30-34 132454 197391 268714 303955 312566 314092 315207 315658 35-39 103023 169117 253124 291567 310049 312430 314042 314717 40-44 84440 140840 222398 280168 307297 310434 312466 313397 45-49 75686 123563 19825 269219 304497 307618 310102 311331 50-54 66200 93514 192974 257070 297431 302959 306012 307797 55-59 55421 73313 172520 243075 282237 29523 299877 302483 60-64 42867 61450 138622 218153 260173 284237 291188 294979 65-69 31356 48477 104029 176804 234863 268716 278638 283770 70-74 21458 34378 78317 140137 204662 2467S 259814 266643 75+ 19182 33649 79787 222M 363026 483434 562069 599969 TOTAL 1858219 2482462 34982s2 4298731 4777788 5030649 5156268 5217728 FEMALES 0-4 238254 281890 309935 306063 305415 304995 304939 304891 5-9 211480 272692 302226 305361 305028 304809 3047M5 304744 10-14 210000 258220 292304 304664 304764 304792 304777 304732 15-19 196555 227381 283972 304315 304622 304756 304712 304685 20-24 169763 205204 276762 304925 304373 304591 304513 304570 25-29 142364 202930 269590 303597 304153 304236 304310 304395 30-34 126439 188578 262592 296683 303228 303700 304007 304179 35-39 98524 161688 247079 285778 301788 302935 303635 3039B8 40-44 81114 134527 215187 276015 300380 302098 303117 303463 45-49 72824 118470 192263 266995 299427 300866 302280 302754 50-54 64039 90618 187846 257281 295612 298989 300806 301701 55-59 54043 72415 170647 246470 285136 295532 298580 300114 60-64 43381 61949 140603 225843 269268 290413 295406 297905 65-69 33273 50155 109237 187921 252108 283515 291033 294679 70-74 24141 36639 86099 156311 231697 273622 284041 289400 75+ 25321 39941 99694 295834 509444 689549 807806 865739 TOTAL 1791513 2403299 3446036 4324057 4876444 5169398 5318748 5391850 BIRTH RATE 28.7 21.6 16.4 13.7 12.6 12.1 11.9 DEATH RATE M.1 7.6 7.8 9.2 10.4 11.0 11.3 MET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.94 1.41 .87 .45 .22 .11 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.567 2.759 2.255 2.080 2.064 2.056 2.054 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 63.37 68.70 74.78 19.26 81.96 84.19 85.08 INR - BOTH SEXES 69.8 44.3 20.0 8.2 4.7 2.5 2.2 6 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REQIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS MDC Population Projection (thousands) AGE GRWUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL NFF 1177480 1214489 1249449 1282145 1312748 1339139 1362260 1382868 1401062 1416340 MALES 0-4 44463 44941 44444 43373 43331 43530 43667 43711 43720 43799 5-9 44068 44539 44962 44497 43400 43331 43508 43635 43669 43668 10-14 45309 44143 4453 45015 44530 43416 43332 43501 43621 43649 15-19 46540 45313 44115 44570 44996 44498 43373 43284 43448 43565 20-24 47020 46560 45275 44119 44538 44925 44402 43268 43164 43314 25-29 48005 47073 46530 45298 44096 44457 44796 44255 43102 42976 30-34 46340 47950 46988 46496 45234 43991 44313 44634 44083 42920 35-39 43512 46127 47711 46837 46337 45055 43M7 44109 44"24 43875 40-44 34403 43093 45683 -47329 46507 46001 44723 43476 43794 44116 45-49 32931 33819 42369 44994 46683 45919 45442 44205 42995 43340 50-54 32554 31914 32882 41271 43918 45625 44961 44545 43383 42242 55-59 29751 30894 30466 31545 39706 42327 44082 43580 43270 42231 60-64 25745 27436 28680 28519 29747 37541 40149 41992 41736 41595 65-69 16772 22685 24455 25803 25975 27312 34623 37224 39195 39275 70-74 14707 13821 18887 20719 22175 22632 24086 30759 33345 35473 75+ 18743 20052 20661 25221 30096 34378 37594 41111 49256 57396 TOTAL 570863 590360 608681 625606 641269 654938 66ss45 677290 686206 693435 FEMALES 0-4 42547 42811 42303 41262 41204 41389 41512 4154 41543 41608 5-9 42053 42672 42878 42396 41323 41236 41396 41506 41526 41511 10-14 43226 42170 42743 42965 42458 41364 41259 41408 41509 41519 15-19 44315 43347 42242 42837 43029 42497 41383 41266 41404 41492 20-24 45618 4559 43499 42432 42968 43110 42537 41399 41256 41368 25-29 47027 45896 4731 43718 42583 43058 43148 4254 41376 41203 30-34 45824 47181 45981 44858 43797 42620 43056 43124 42499 41312 35-39 43411 45831 47146 45991 44847 43764 42567 42992 43049 42417 40-44 34730 43256 45658 47006 45863 4716 43633 42441 42866 42926 45-49 34020 34456 42927 45355 46724 45604 4476 43413 42239 42677 50-54 34450 33532 34021 42442 44890 46272 45196 4104 43076 41935 55-59 33197 33659 32862 33431 41781 44230 45641 44635 43602 42629 60-u 32819 32010 32603 31972 32651 40872 43337 44803 43909 42968 65-69 23668 30904 30404 31184 30785 31554 39610 42117 43680 42960 70-74 22527 21381 28265 28172 29213 29020 29935 37766 40357 42088 75+ 37184 40464 42506 50518 57363 62895 66730 70515 80966 92291 TOTAL 606616 624129 640769 656540 671479 684201 695415 705578 714856 722905 BIRTH RATE 14.9 14.3 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.3 12.2 DEATH RATE 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.8 9.2 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 RATE OF MAT. INC. .54 .51 .46 .43 .37 .32 .29 .26 .22 NET MIGRATION RATE .8 .5 .6 .4 .3 .2 .1 .1 .0 GROWTH RATE .62 .57 .52 .47 .40 .34 .30 .26 .22 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.953 1.946 l.929 1.955 1.981 l.998 2.017 2.038 2.060 NRR .937 .924 .918 .936 .952 .963 .972 .983 .995 .(0) - BOTH SEXES 74.29 75.50 76.70 77.83 78.52 79.24 80.00 80.79 81.61 (S15) - BOTH SEXES 60.63 61.71 62.75 63.76 6.36 64.99 65.65 66.34 67.06 INR - BOTH SEXES 14.7 12.4 10.5 9.0 8.0 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0180 .0154 .0131 .0113 .0102 .0089 .0076 .0064 .0052 DEP. RATIO 50.5 51.1 51.9 52.5 52.5 52.7 55.7 59.3 63.2 66.4 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 7 S_umry Projection for 25-Year Periods MDC AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL MF 1177480 1282145 1401062 1432633 1437941 1451944 1463262 1469028 MALES 0-4 44463 43373 43720 43733 43729 43731 43733 43732 5-9 44068 44497 43669 43662 43692 43701 43703 43701 10-14 45309 45015 43621 43638 43694 43699 43698 43696 15-19 46540 4457O 43448 43663 43676 43672 43671 43671 20-24 47020 44119 43164 43583 43584 43587 43594 43600 25-29 48005 45298 43102 43327 43419 43454 43478 43490 30-34 46340 46496 44083 43153 43242 43321 43360 43377 35-39 43512 46837 44424 42930 43072 43195 43243 43262 40-44 34403 47329 43794 42542 42914 43021 43078 43104 45-49 32931 "4994 42995 42005 42611 42735 42816 42857 50-54 32554 41271 43383 41467 41957 42222 42361 42434 55-59 29751 31545 43270 41570 41101 41455 41692 41804 60-64 25745 28519 41736 40594 39865 40396 40751 40907 65-69 16M 25803 39195 38139 37977 38885 39329 39544 70-74 14707 20719 33345 34678 35188 36513 37122 37433 75. 18743 25221 49256 7344l M12 81519 85427 87499 TOTAL 570863 625606 686206 702125 707033 715107 721056 724109 FEMALES 0-4 42547 41262 41543 41529 41517 41515 41516 41515 5-9 42053 42396 41526 41480 41494 41498 41498 41496 10-14 43226 42965 41509 41468 41501 41500 41497 41494 15-19 44315 42837 41404 41524 41507 41496 41490 41489 20-24 45618 42432 41256 41534 41488 41478 41475 41478 25-29 47027 43718 41376 41424 41443 41448 414!56 41462 30-34 45824 44858 42499 41383 41379 41418 41435 41442 35-39 43411 45991 43049 41302 41322 41390 41411 41417 40-44 34730 47006 42866 41112 41316 41349 41369 41377 45-49 34020 45355 42239 40849 41241 41265 41298 41315 50-54 34450 42442 43076 40774 40989 41112 41180 41218 55-59 33197 33431 43602 41577 40733 40886 41018 41079 60-64 32819 31972 43909 41666 40347 40596 40802 40886 65-69 23668 31184 43680 40838 39712 40247 40484 40597 70-74 22527 28172 40357 39204 38n6 39609 39940 40114 75. 37184 50518 80966 112843 116191 120029 124336 126540 TOTAL 606616 656540 714856 730508 730909 736836 742205 744918 BIRTH RATE 14.2 L2.7 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.2 9.4 11.1 11.8 11.5 11.4 11.5 NET NIGRATION RATE .6 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .57 .35 .09 .01 .04 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.946 1.998 2.066 2.064 2.063 2.062 2.061 eCO) - BTH SEXES 75.52 79.30 82.47 84.16 85.11 85.82 86.11 INR - BOTH SEXES 12.6 6.9 3.3 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 8 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC iZEG1ONS, AND INCOME GROUFS AFRICA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 l990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 541962 627000 723683 831304 948632 1072278 1200257 1332335 1466678 1599132 MALES 0-4 49569 s6273 63617 70721 77659 82138 85604 88954 91417 91805 5-9 39829 4609 53314 60647 67833 7478 79338 82m 86554 89294 10-14 33407 39015 45800 52336 59579 66730 7362 78283 82015 85670 15-19 28538 32M 38287 44961 51371 58563 6568 72577 77287 81099 20-24 23540 27778 31922 37301 43782 50129 S7261 4346 71248 7603? 25-29 19785 22766 26904 30924 36119 42509 48794 55875 62940 69868 30-34 16086 19092 22005 26013 29883 35008 41317 47554 54599 61661 35-39 13022 15464 18387 21202 25048 28863 33920 40155 46350 53370 40-44 10655 12425 14787 17599 20282 24041 27795 32780 38937 45088 45-49 9114 10061 11745 14007 16670 19283 22940 26620 31515 37575 50-54 7408 8480 9357 10937 13061 15619 18141 21668 25248 30019 55-59 6057 6733 704 8503 9942 11960 14379 16778 20133 23568 60-64 4581 5308 5894 6750 7442 8765 10637 12870 15100 18217 65-69 3315 3783 4381 4868 5572 6190 7358 9029 11015 13015 70-74 2184 2493 2841 3297 3661 4237 4754 5720 7124 8787 75' 1950 2242 2567 2939 3398 3905 4577 5307 6389 8024 TOTAL 269041 311395 359511 413004 471302 532677 596124 661505 727872 793098 FEMALES 0-4 48624 55481 62653 69578 76310 80683 84064 87334 89719 90059 5-9 39232 45984 52767 59961 66999 73724 78224 8178 85271 87923 10-14 33061 38472 45160 51897 59022 66032 72757 M12 80952 84525 15-19 28320 32483 37832 44441 51070 58157 65147 71882 76495 80216 20-24 23456 27708 31816 37082 43545 50131 57183 64162 70920 75612 25-29 20017 22854 27033 31067 36204 42606 49155 56182 63163 69959 30-34 16602 19437 22225 26309 30228 35319 41666 48184 55197 62193 35-39 13706 16059 18830 21555 25502 29385 34432 40727 47222 54229 40-44 11268 13193 15487 16'¶3 20812 24690 28537 33539 39785 46259 45-49 9741 10790 12649 14876 17467 20059 23863 27668 32620 38811 50-54 8013 9242 10245 12025 14156 16684 19230 22948 26701 31590 55-59 6602 7469 8624 9573 11236 13306 15756 18241 21855 25540 60-64 5148 5968 6764 7826 8685 10260 12246 14593 16997 20474 65-69 3847 4413 5131 5837 6754 756 9017 10882 13087 15377 70-74 2662 3028 3485 4073 4643 5445 6176 7459 9144 11142 75+ 2622 3024 3473 4017 4698 5556 6681 7927 9677 12126 TOTAL 272921 315605 364172 418300 47330 539600 604133 670829 738806 806034 BIRTH RATE 43.9 42.5 40.5 38.3 35.4 32.6 30.1 27.8 25.2 DEATH RATE 14.6 13.8 12.8 11.9 10.9 10.0 9.2 8.5 7.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.93 2.87 2.78 2.64 2.45 2.26 2.09 1.92 1.73 NET MIGRTION RATE -.2 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.92 2.87 2.77 2.64 2.45 2.26 2.09 1.92 1.73 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.064 5.847 5.506 5.108 4.602 4.105 3.683 3.314 2.973 NRR 2.260 2.219 2.138 2.021 1.851 1.683 1.542 1.419 1.299 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 52.57 53.55 54.87 55.98 57.42 58.93 60.52 62.19 63.97 eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 49.33 49.35 49.55 49.47 50.37 51.32 52.31 53.36 54.46 IMR - BOTH SEXES 105.1 97.9 89.4 79.6 73.8 68.1 62.2 56.1 49.6 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .1647 .1524 .1376 .1205 .1115 .1025 .093 .0835 .0732 DEP. RATIO 92.4 92.3 91.2 88.4 85.1 80.1 74.4 68.8 64.0 59.7 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 9 Suary Projection for 25-Year Periods AFRICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL MF 541962 831304 1466678 2078609 2539581 2784360 2895168 2953606 MALES 0-4 49569 70721 91417 87782 S8480 88979 89058 89014 5-9 39829 60647 86554 87716 88436 88887 88991 88938 10-14 33407 52336 82015 88149 88495 88732 88934 88908 15-19 28538 44961 7728 88130 80W6 88359 88801 88844 20-24 23540 37301 71248 88100 86743 87812 88576 88692 25-29 19785 30924 62940 86120 86035 87337 88270 88452 30-34 16086 26013 54599 82007 85801 87092 87942 88177 35-39 13022 21202 46350 76931 85745 86766 87463 87838 40-44 10655 17599 38937 71474 85087 85816 86682 87360 45-49 9114 14007 31515 64777 84163 83935 85645 86711 50-54 7408 10937 25248 55S74 80674 82094 84283 85640 55-59 6057 8503 20133 46357 74243 79909 82509 84011 60-64 4581 6750 15100 36728 65948 76878 79909 81587 65-69 3315 4868 11015 2MO 56191 71835 75631 77896 70-74 2184 3297 7124 18937 44418 64500 68880 72439 75+ 195O 2939 6389 19829 56694 109845 140515 157222 TOTAL 269041 413004 727872 1026540 1245188 1358778 1412090 1441730 FEMALES 0-4 48624 69578 89719 85966 86259 86286 86270 86227 5-9 39232 59961 85271 86151 86430 86326 86227 86174 10-14 33061 51897 80952 86738 86664 86303 86180 86153 15-19 28320 44441 76495 86946 86453 86120 86100 86134 20-24 23456 37082 70920 87291 85541 85885 86029 86118 25-29 20017 31067 63163 85770 85203 85807 86049 86091 30-34 16602 26309 5519? 82087 85319 85925 86040 86022 35-39 13706 21555 47222 77407 85624 85976 85891 85882 40-44 11268 18183 39785 72437 85420 85510 85539 85678 45-49 9741 14876 32620 66355 85154 84243 85067 85435 50-54 8013 12025 26701 58139 82705 83300 84594 85169 55-59 6602 9573 21855 49616 77740 82475 84111 84726 60-64 5148 7826 16997 40884 71307 81375 83297 83956 65-69 3847 5837 13087 32366 63832 7903 81576 82693 70-74 2662 4073 9144 23798 54220 75411 78322 80739 75+ 2622 4017 9677 30118 86520 165567 211786 234678 TOTAL 272921 418300 738806 1052069 1294392 1425582 143079 1511876 SIRTH RATE 42.2 32.2 20.8 15.3 13.2 12.3 12.0 DEATH RATE 13.6 9.9 7.1 7.4 9.6 10.8 11.2 MET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROTH RATE 2.85 2.27 1.39 .80 .37 .16 .08 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.778 4.037 2.481 2.079 2.059 2.046 2.043 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 53.77 59.36 68.05 75.60 79.65 83.01 84.35 INR - BOTH SEXES 96.9 67.6 37.3 15.4 7.7 2.9 2.5 10 WORLD, O GBURAPHIC REOIONS, AND INCOME OROUPS EAST AF CA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2o15 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 233001 271890 316564 367230 423099 483136 547163 614317 683620 752n6 MALES 0-4 21432 23475 29161 33063 36874 39574 42184 44383 46078 46572 5-9 17076 20179 24085 2773 31596 35374 38118 40794 4302 44921 10-14 14386 16738 19789 23641 27197 31064 34832 37595 40299 42637 15-19 12242 14113 16424 19418 23187 26711 30554 34314 37096 39829 20-24 10047 11899 13739 15987 18878 22599 26086 29902 33656 36468 25-29 8371 9692 11513 13293 15447 18293 21965 25417 29211 32967 30-34 6785 8052 9358 11112 12813 14937 17741 21370 24794 28575 35-39 5641 6501 7740 8998 10665 12340 14435 17199 20788 24190 40-44 4593 S368 6204 7387 8578 10198 1184 13907 16631 20176 45-49 3880 4328 5065 5859 6964 8122 9689 11301 13326 16000 50-54 3121 3601 4016 4701 5433 6488 7605 9108 10674 12646 55-59 2549 2828 3258 3634 4246 4941 5932 6994 8417 9919 60-64 1917 2225 2462 2835 3153 3713 4358 5267 6254 7571 65-69 1387 1573 1820 2015 2308 2594 3085 3662 4465 5351 70-74 887 1036 1169 1351 1488 1725 1966 2370 2856 3524 75+ 827 920 1044 1177 1334 1522 1792 2110 2574 3188 TOTAL 115141 134530 156846 182174 210160 240194 272186 305694 340210 374535 FEMALES 0-4 21240 23220 28843 32664 36377 39009 41554 43696 45340 45801 5-9 16913 20057 23911 27476 31299 34993 37678 40295 42539 44318 10-14 14280 16583 19674 23475 26971 30771 34461 37170 39820 42110 15-19 12287 14021 16283 19314 23027 26494 30275 33965 36701 39389 20-24 10130 12002 13707 15912 18840 22519 25958 29723 33417 36191 25-29 8589 9849 11684 13339 15457 18347 21993 25408 29162 32870 30-34 7053 8323 9557 11327 12904 14998 17854 21470 24866 28618 35-39 5989 6810 8041 9232 10906 12468 14541 17363 20953 24336 40-44 4866 5757 6550 ml 8857 10490 12037 14088 16878 20444 45-49 4157 4655 5505 6264 7375 8485 10077 11606 13634 16391 50-54 3366 3937 4405 5209 5917 6995 8084 9631 11138 13137 55-59 2768 3130 3656 4092 4823 5514 6552 7614 9108 10587 60-64 2214 2493 2816 3288 3667 4353 5020 6007 7032 8459 65-69 "'J64 1890 2124 2401 2787 3145 3772 4403 5321 6295 70-7'e 1143 1303 1476 1659 1866 2198 2522 3068 3643 4465 + 1202 1330 1486 1674 1867 2161 2599 3117 3858 4782 TOTAL 117860 137360 159718 185056 212939 242942 274976 308623 343410 378191 BIRTH RATE 46.4 45.2 43.6 41.4 38.4 35.7 33.1 30.4 27.5 DEATH RATE 15.2 14.8 13.9 13.1 11.9 10.8 9.9 9.1 8.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.12 3.05 2.97 2.83 2.66 2.49 2.32 2.14 1.93 NET MIGRATION RATE -.4 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.09 3.04 2.97 2.83 2.65 2.49 2.32 2.14 1.93 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.410 6.300 6.067 5.704 5.167 4.644 4.142 3.693 3.269 NRR 2.376 2.346 2.295 2.192 2.026 1.858 1.696 1.551 1.405 *(0) - BOTH SEXES 52.03 52.26 53.12 s3.73 55.24 56.83 58.50 60.27 62.15 eIS) - BOTH SEXES 49.06 48.60 48.48 47.91 48.88 49.90 50.97 52.10 53.30 IMR - BOTH SEXES 108.9 104.2 96.6 86.6 80.3 74.1 68.0 61.5 54.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1700 .1623 .1492 .1316 .1218 .1120 .1023 .0918 .0809 DEP. RATIO 93.3 94.8 95.4 94.4 91.3 86.5 80.8 74.7 69.3 64. WORLD, OEOORAPHIC RBOIONS, AND INCOME OROUPS 11 Sumry Projection for 25-Year Period EAST AFRICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M6F 233001 367230 683620 1006163 1260265 1399234 1457517 148M6 KALES 0-4 21432 33063 46078 43916 44530 44821 44851 44817 5-9 17076 27703 43092 44167 -9469 44813 44818 44M 10-14 14386 23641 40299 44742 44771 44728 771 44755 15-19 12242 19418 37096 44838 44479 44479 44686 44722 20-24 10047 15987 33656 44596 43553 44152 44576 44655 25-29 8371 13293 29211 43277 43036 43949 44461 44545 30-34 6785 11112 24794 40754 43196 43955 44334 44406 35-39 5641 8998 20788 37705 43514 43890 44083 44217 40-44 4593 7387 16631 34188 43280 43348 43628 43956 45-49 3880 5859 13326 30458 42590 42133 43053 43632 50-54 3121 4701 10674 25M72 40517 41048 42399 43129 55-59 2549 3634 8417 20869 36855 40200 41621 42341 60-64 1917 2835 6254 16286 32247 38961 40390 41105 65-69 1387 2015 4465 11635 26759 36453 38162 39182 70-74 887 1351 2856 7802 20708 32519 34523 36381 75+ 827 1177 2574 7949 25152 54189 70521 79162 TOTAL 115141 182174 340210 498905 619827 683637 710877 725780 FEMALES 0-4 21240 32664 45340 43076 43493 43569 43559 43527 5-9 16913 27476 42539 43447 43699 43621 43536 43496 10-14 14280 23475 39820 44094 43912 43596 43494 43479 15-19 12287 19314 36701 44291 43739 43438 43434 43469 20-24 10130 15912 33417 44207 42998 43261 43401 43469 25-29 8589 13339 29162 43066 42668 43250 4344 43465 30-34 7053 11327 24866 40696 43000 43428 43470 43428 35-39 5989 9232 20953 37784 43491 43543 43378 43338 40-44 4866 7731 16878 34428 43462 43234 43131 43213 45-49 4157 6264 13634 30920 43053 42307 42830 43090 50-54 3366 5209 11138 26493 41427 41660 42611 42983 55-59 2768 4092 9108 22009 38401 41484 42468 42780 60-64 2214 3288 7032 17821 34616 41206 42121 42363 65-69 1664 24A1 5321 13394 30068 40039 41147 41641 70-74 1143 1659 3643 9615 24890 37831 39188 40566 75+ 1202 1674 3858 1193S 37522 80128 105430 117667 TOTAL 117860 185056 343410 507278 640438 715598 746641 761976 BIRTN RATE 45.0 35.2 22.2 15.8 13.3 12.4 12.0 DEATH RATE 14.5 10.7 7.0 6.9 9.2 10.7 11.2 MET MIGRATION RATE -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.03 2.49 1.55 .90 .42 .16 .08 TOTAL FERTILVTY 6.242 4.517 2.612 2.081 2.058 2.044 2.041 eCO) BOTH SEXES 52.52 57.32 66.76 75.07 79.31 82.84 84.24 IMR - BOTH SEXES 102.7 73.5 41.0 16.3 8.1 3.0 2.5 12 WORLD, OEOORAPHIC RBOIONS, AND INCOME OROUPS WEST AI CA PouLatfon Projectfon (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 aoos 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 185408 214927 248674 287080 329757 374622 420334 46764l 515197 561493 MALES 0-4 17632 19837 22510 25414 28263 29866 30761 31989 32546 323 5-9 13911 16437 18624 21310 24250 27076 28728 29712 31025 31694 10-14 11456 13555 16036 18198 20852 23774 26595 28273 29m 30649 15-19 9595 11189 13241 15672 17787 20420 23325 26145 27848 28914 20-24 7806 9298 10836 12823 15171 17264 19870 22760 25582 27322 25-29 6353 7516 8945 10419 12325 14629 16701 19287 22167 24996 30-34 5207 6102 7212 85 9986 11856 14121 16179 18751 21627 35-39 4379 4978 5827 6885 8186 9562 11397 13629 15677 18238 40-44 3707 4150 4713 5516 6513 7776 9122 10923 13120 15156 45-49 3089 3470 3881 4407 5154 6116 7339 8650 10409 12564 50-54 2500 2842 3189 3567 4048 4760 5678 6851 8117 9822 55-59 1968 2241 2545 2856 3193 3645 4311 5174 6281 7485 60-64 1487 1694 1927 2189 2454 2763 3177 3785 4574 5591 65-69 1039 1200 1365 1554 1763 1994 2265 2628 3158 3850 70-74 658 755 871 992 1127 1294 1481 1703 2000 2431 75+ 533 613 702 810 924 1073 1259 1481 1748 2094 TOTAL 91320 105876 122424 141191 161997 183869 206133 229170 252302 274768 FEMALES 0-4 17459 19686 22300 25133 27899 29480 30363 31575 32125 31915 5-9 13962 16362 18594 21246 24137 26894 28525 29491 30787 31442 10-14 11651 13641 16027 18256 20901 23780 26534 28186 29185 30514 15-19 9726 11419 13391 15757 17964 20596 23466 26222 27895 28926 20-24 7905 9499 11165 13114 15440 17632 20253 23117 25879 27580 25-29 6586 7688 9250 10890 12800 15103 1n82 19896 22759 25533 30-34 5537 6377 7456 8988 10591 12480 14761 16933 19542 22408 35-39 4677 5334 6157 7215 8707 10288 12157 14419 1658' 19192 40-44 3949 4481 5124 5930 6956 8421 9980 11829 1407 16231 45-49 3295 3763 4281 4908 s566 6692 8128 9663 11490 13710 50-54 2721 3108 3560 4061 4661 5421 6402 7803 9309 11109 55-59 2186 2518 2887 3317 3789 4369 5106 6056 7414 8684 60-64 1690 1957 2266 2609 3004 3453 4006 4711 5621 6922 65-69 1223 1429 1667 1942 2243 2605 3021 3537 4197 5052 70-74 808 943 1114 1311 1534 1795 2112 2480 2941 3535 75. 713 846 1010 1213 1449 1745 2107 2554 3095 3775 TOTAL 94088 109052 126250 145889 167761 190754 214201 238471 262896 286725 BIRTH RATE 4.O 44.4 42.6 40.5 37.2 33.7 31.1 28.3 25.5 DEATH RATE 16.5 15.2 13.9 12.8 11.6 10.6 9.7 9.0 8.3 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.95 2.91 2.87 2.77 2.55 2.31 2.14 1.94 1.72 NET MIGRATION RATE .1 .0 .0 .O -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.95 2.92 2.87 2.77 2.55 2.30 2.13 1.94 1.72 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.298 6.158 5.797 5.378 4.806 4.212 3.755 3.315 2.919 NRR 2.278 2.288 2.220 2.116 1.928 1.726 1.571 1.415 1.271 (OC) - BOTd SEXES 49.02 50.50 52.16 53.63 55.22 56.87 58.58 60.37 62.23 e(iS) - BOTH SEXES 47.13 47.53 47.93 48.08 49.07 50.10 51.17 52.29 53.44 INR - BOTH SEXES 113.1 103.8 93.4 82.5 76.7 70.8 64.8 58.8 52.7 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .1809 .1640 .1455 .1262 .1169 .1075 .0978 .0881 .0782 DEP. RATIO 96.5 96.1 94.5 91.8 89.1 84.3 77.7 70.7 64.6 59.4 WORLD, OEOORAPHIC REOIONS, AND INCOME OROUPS 13 Suary Projectfon for 25-Year Periods WEST AFRICA AGE GROUP l985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL MF 185408 287080 515197 729542 891506 97ms 1019807 1042986 IALES 0-4 17632 25414 32546 31199 31245 31440 31487 31481 5-9 13911 21310 31025 30879 31093 31362 31464 31457 10-14 11456 18198 29298 30736 31013 31300 31456 31451 15-19 9595 15672 27848 30625 30877 31200 31422 31426 20-24 7806 12823 25582 30835 3060b 31024 31333 31362 25-29 6353 10419 22167 30397 30487 30796 31176 31265 30-34 5207 8580 18751 29151 30124 30578 31012 31166 35-39 4379 6885 15677 27213 29804 30357 30830 31055 40-44 3707 5516 13120 25436 29454 30037 30579 30894 45-49 3089 4407 10409 22903 29314 29540 30221 30650 50-54 2500 3567 8ll7 19254 28286 28984 29667 30215 55-59 1968 2856 6281 15485 26133 27903 28890 29578 60-64 1487 2189 4574 11941 22963 26498 27837 28687 65-69 1039 1554 3158 8807 19479 24540 26290 27372 70-74 658 992 2000 5724 15027 21998 23972 25402 75s 533 810 1748 5177 16856 35993 4728 53919 TOTAL 91320 141191 252302 355761 432762 473551 494922 507382 FEMALES 0-4 17459 25133 32125 30797 30657 30608 30604 30597 5-9 13962 21246 30787 30592 30614 30597 30591 30581 10-14 11651 18256 291,35 30518 30623 30601 30588 30579 15-19 9726 15757 2789s 30511 30601 30590 30574 30571 20-24 7905 13114 25879 30897 30495 30549 30543 30558 25-29 6586 10890 22759 30678 30511 30490 30523 30540 30-34 5537 8988 19542 29653 30285 30429 30494 30517 35-39 4677 7215 16584 27928 30112 30372 30453 30481 40-44 3949 5930 14071 26426 29958 30258 30379 30422 45-49 3295 4908 11490 24209 30121 30021 30252 30329 50-54 2721 4061 9309 20917 2956 29814 30051 30206 55-59 2186 3317 7414 17498 28046 29252 29774 30021 60-64 1690 2609 5621 14250 25664 28584 29408 29756 65-69 1223 1942 4197 11298 23179 27682 28840 29353 70-74 808 1311 2941 8l88 19601 26602 27870 28689 75. 713 1213 3095 9420 28720 57588 73941 82405 TOTAL 94088 145889 262896 373781 458743 504037 524885 535605 BIRTH RATE 44.2 33.5 21.0 15.4 13.3 12.4 12.1 DEATH RATE 15.1 10.5 7.3 7.5 9.7 10.8 11.2 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.91 2.34 1.39 .80 .37 .17 .09 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.058 4.141 2.435 2.0?7 2.056 2.043 2.040 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 50.71 57.32 66.63 74.67 79.11 82.73 84.17 IIR -BOTH SEXES 102.7 70.4 40.2 17.3 8.5 3.0 2.5 14 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS NORTH AFICA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 l195 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N.F 123553 140182 158445 176994 195776 214519 232760 250377 267861 284912 MALES 0-4 10505 l0961 11945 12244 12523 12699 12659 12582 129 12899 5-9 8842 10093 10605 11633 11987 12288 12492 12483 12438 12679 10-14 7565 8722 9975 1049? 11531 11893 12201 1241S 12418 12385 15-19 6702 7471 8622 9872 10397 11433 11802 12118 12342 12355 20-24 5687 6580 7347 8492 9). 10265 11305 11684 12011 12247 25-29 5061 5557 6446 7212 8346 9587 10128 11171 11563 11904 30-34 4094 4939 5435 6321 7083 8215 9455 10005 1l054 11459 35-39 3002 3985 4820 5S318 6197 6960 8088 9327 9886 10942 40-44 2355 2906 3870 4696 5191 60.6 6828 7950 9187 9755 45-49 2145 2263 2799 3741 4552 5045 5911 6669 77 9011 50-54 1787 2037 2152 2668 3580 4372 4859 5709 6457 7551 55-59 1540 1664 1901 2013 2503 3374 4135 4610 5435 6164 60-64 1177 1390 1505 1726 1835 2289 3101 3818 4272 5055 65-69 m88 1010 1196 1300 1501 1602 2008 2739 3392 3814 70-74 639 701 802 954 1045 1217 1307 1647 2267 2831 75+ 591 709 820 951 1140 1310 1526 1716 2067 2742 TOTAL 62580 70989 80240 89639 99145 108614 117805 126642 135361 143795 FEMALES 0-4 9924 10575 11509 11781 12035 12195 12148 12062 12254 12343 5-9 8357 9565 10262 11240 11564 11837 12022 12002 11945 12163 10-14 7130 8247 9458 10165 11149 11481 11762 11956 11947 11902 15-19 6307 7044 8158 9369 10079 11067 11406 11695 l1899 11901 20-24 5421 6208 6943 8056 9265 998l 10973 11323 11623 11840 25-29 4841 5317 6099 6838 7946 9157 9879 10879 11242 11556 30-34 4013 4737 5211 .5994 6733 7840 9051 9782 10789 11167 35-39 3041 3915 4631 5107 5888 6629 734 8946 9685 10702 40-44 2452 2955 3813 4522 4999 5778 6520 7622 8836 9584 45-49 2289 2372 2862 3705 4405 4882 5658 6399 7497 8711 50-54 1927 2197 2279 2756 3578 4268 4744 5514 6253 7344 55-59 1647 1822 2081 2164 2624 3422 4098 4571 5333 6068 60-64 1244 1517 1683 1930 2014 2454 3219 3875 4343 5093 65-69 960 1094 1339 1494 1725 1813 2223 2942 3569 4031 70-74 712 781 895 1103 1244 1452 1542 1911 2561 3142 75+ 707 848 978 1130 1382 1650 1976 2257 2724 3569 TOTAL 60973 69194 78204 87355 96631 105905 114955 123735 132500 141117 BIRTH RATE 36.2 34.3 30.8 28.0 25.6 23.3 21.3 20.0 18.8 DEATH RATE 10.6 9.6 8.6 7.8 7.3 6.9 6.? 6.5 6.4 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.56 2.47 2.23 2.02 1.83 1.63 1.46 135 1.23 NET NIGRATION RATE -.3 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 HT# RATE 2.53 2.45 2.21 2.02 1.83 1.63 1.46 1.35 1.23 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.032 4.547 4.012 3.541 3.147 2.797 2.531 2.401 2.306 NRR 2.022 1.879 1.706 1.537 1.379 - '41 1.142 1.099 1.071 etO) - BOTH SEXES 58.99 60.84 62.74 64.62 66,01 .P.44 68.92 70.47 72.08 e(1s) - BOTH SEXES 53.17 53.65 54.30 55.07 55.89 56.74 57.62 58.53 59.49 INR - BOTH SEXES 80.1 69.7 59.7 50.5 45.1 39.7 33.9 28.2 22.2 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .1208 .1031 .0866 .0717 .0641 .0562 .0479 .0395 .0308 DEP. RATIO 85.1 82.3 78.7 72.7 67.4 61.2 56.3 53.0 50.9 49.6 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS IS Suamury Projection for 25-Year Periods NORTH AF CA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL NsF 123553 176994 267861 342883 387810 407537 417844 422864 MALES 0-4 10505 12244 12793 12667 12705 12719 12719 12716 5-9 8842 11633 12438 12670 12704 12711 12710 12706 10-14 7565 10497 12418 12670 12710 12704 12706 12703 15-19 6702 9872 12342 1W'' 12679 12680 12694 12696 20-24 5687 8492 12011 I- w9 12581 12637 12668 12675 25-29 5061 7212 11563 12446 12512 12591 1S33 12642 30-34 4094 6321 11054 12101 12481 12560 12596 12606 35-39 3002 5318 9686 12013 12427 12520 12549 12565 40-44 2355 4696 9187 11849 12353 12430 12475 12510 45-49 2145 3741 7780 11417 12259 12262 12372 12429 50-54 1787 2668 6457 10798 11870 12061 12217 12296 55-59 1540 2013 5435 10003 11256 11807 11999 12093 60-64 1177 1726 4272 8501 10738 11419 11682 l1m 65-69 888 1300 3392 728s 9952 10843 11179 11342 70-74 639 954 2267 5411 8683 9983 10386 10655 75+ 591 951 2067 6703 14686 19663 22706 24141 TOTAL 62580 89639 135361 171873 192600 201590 206291 208568 FEMALES 0-4 9924 11781 12254 12092 12110 12109 12107 12103 5-9 8357 11240 11945 12112 12117 1 108 12101 12097 10-14 7130 10165 11947 12126 12129 12105 12097 12095 15-19 6307 9369 11899 12144 12113 12092 12091 12093 20-24 5421 8056 11623 12187 12048 12075 12085 1209i 25-29 4841 6838 11242 12025 12024 12066 12082 12086 30-34 4013 5994 10789 11738 12035 12068 12077 12077 35-39 3041 5107 9685 11695 12021 12061 12060 12063 40-44 2452 4522 8836 11583 12000 12018 12029 12043 45-49 2289 3705 7497 11226 11981 11915 11985 120'6 50-54 1927 2756 6253 10729 11722 11826 11933 11980 55-59 1647 2164 5333 10108 11292 11739 11869 11925 60-64 1244 1930 4343 8813 11027 11585 11769 11837 65-69 960 1494 3569 7673 10585 11351 115C9 11700 70-74 712 1103 2561 5995 9729 10979 11264 11484 75+ 707 1130 2724 8763 20278 27851 32415 34605 TOTAL 60973 87355 132500 171010 195211 205948 211553 214295 BIRTH RATE 33.6 23.3 16.6 13.6 12.5 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 9.5 7.0 6.8 8.7 10.5 11.0 11.4 MET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.40 1.66 .99 .49 .20 .10 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.480 2.826 2.188 2.078 2.068 2.062 2.060 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 61.01 67.73 74.54 79.27 82.06 84.28 85.14 IMR - BOTH SEXES 69.6 39.5 16.6 7.2 4.3 2.5 2.2 16 WORA, GOOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS AMERICA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 t.95 2000 200? 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N#F 667361 720914 776830 829875 8792W1 926593 973651 1019274 1061325 1098600 MALES 0-4 37721 39329 40225 39093 37856 38000 39031 39577 39369 38912 5.9 34789 37373 39080 40031 38940 3m772 37889 38933 39489 39290 10-14 33525 34668 37295 39017 39973 38889 37683 37849 38892 39449 15.19 32300 33359 34548 3718? 38914 39872 38798 37602 37769 38813 20-24 31568 32038 33180 34395 37037 3875s 39716 38649 37453 37616 25-29 26587 31267 31847 33019 34244 36868 30580 39530 38459 37259 30-34 25059 28304 31064 31676 32857 34075 36686 38389 39329 38259 35-39 20930 24774 28074 30843 31471 32647 33862 36462 38158 39097 40-44 16820 20614 24476 27773 30539 31166 32340 33554 36140 37536 45-49 14052 16440 20215 24043 27322 30058 30694 31871 33091 35674 50-54 12428 1355k 15911 19617 23382 26605 29303 29957 31146 32385 55-59 11529 11742 12852 15151 18754 22406 25556 28207 28898 30117 60-64 10055 10571 10817 11901 14116 17562 21066 24124 26723 27476 65-69 7941 8804 9325 9612 10662 12746 1596 19282 22215 24740 70-74 5974 6442 7238 7762 8103 9073 10973 13909 16940 19692 75+ 7120 7616 8483 9755 11081 12181 13664 16236 20405 25695 TOTAL 330396 356894 384628 410875 435251 458634 481818 504131 524476 542309 FEMALES 0-4 36417 37765 38586 37466 36242 36353 37312 37806 37580 37115 5-9 33717 36135 37581 38453 37366 36160 36284 372S2 37m71 37529 10-14 !2518 33630 36095 37557 38431 37347 36144 36269 37233 377m3 15-19 31422 32431 33596 36074 37537 38407 37323 36121 36241 37201 20-24 31116 31316 32416 33604 36075 37526 38386 37n96 36082 36188 25-29 28459 30994 31304 32430 33612 36065 37501 38349 37243 36013 30-34 25197 28324 30940 31276 32401 33571 36011 37438 38272 37158 35-39 21234 25041 28223 30852 31193 32310 33476 35909 37330 38160 40-44 17221 21053 24883 28069 30695 31037 32153 33320 35749 37172 45-49 14543 17003 20833 24650 27831 30445 30793 31914 33088 35519 50-54 13070 1426S 16721 20525 24319 27476 30076 30438 31568 32756 55-59 12428 12701 13902 16341 20109 23854 26985 29569 29955 31104 60-64 11231 11899 12203 13409 15830 19530 23214 26315 28889 29317 65-69 9314 10479 11166 11518 12738 15104 18716 22323 25396 27970 70-74 7595 8287 9427 10147 10568 11756 14044 17531 21038 24083 75+ 11500 12694 14327 16629 19033 21017 23416 27292 33435 41277 TOTAL 336983 364020 392202 419000 443980 4679"9 491834 515143 536849 556291 BIRTH RATE 23.3 21.9 19.7 17.8 16.9 16.4 15.8 15.0 14.2 DEATH RATE 7.9 7.3 6.8 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.54 1.47 1.29 1.1! 1.03 .97 .90 .80 .69 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .3 .3 .3 .2 .2 .1 .1 .0 GR04TH RATE 1.56 1.49 1.32 1.16 1.05 .99 .92 .81 .69 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.823 2.697 2.486 2.291 2.188 2.151 2.122 2.096 2.080 HRR 1.301 1.246 1.162 1.078 1.033 1.019 1.011 1.004 1.001 *(O) I B0TH iEXES 70.32 71.59 72.90 74.21 75.09 76.02 77.00 78.03 79.11 0(15) - 0TH SEXES 58.71 59.58 60.49 61.43 62.04 62.68 63.35 64.07 64.82 INR - BOTH SEXES 41.9 36.1 30.6 25.3 21.5 17.7 13.9 10.2 6.5 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0516 .0441 .0371 .0308 .0263 .0218 .0174 .0129 .0086 DEP. RATIO 63.1 61.0 59.2 55.7 52.1 49.4 49.2 51.0 53.5 55.8 WORLD, OBOORAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 17 Summary Projection for 25-Year Perfods A10ERIU CA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 667381 829875 1061325 1201001 1259882 1?85224 1300544 1308110 KALES 0-4 37m21 39093 39369 99174 39032 38987 38987 38990 5-9 34789 40031 39489 39011 38928 38940 38960 38965 10-14 33525 39017 38892 38732 38870 38944 38965 38963 15-19 32300 37187 37769 38548 38885 38954 38951 38941 20-24 31568 34395 37453 38643 38920 38907 38876 38871 25-29 28587 33019 38459 38899 38852 38764 38751 38765 30-34 25059 31676 39329 38902 38586 38570 38624 38661 35-39 20930 30843 38158 38139 38165 38389 38S19 38565 40-44 16820 27773 36140 36825 37803 38252 38398 38429 45-49 14052 24043 33091 36252 37672 38099 38184 38200 50-54 12428 19617 31146 36714 37515 37693 37742 37793 55-59 11529 15151 28698 36659 36818 36859 37047 37195 60-64 10055 11901 26723 34258 35063 35598 36111 36376 65-69 7941 9612 22215 30582 32356 33965 34817 35157 70-74 5974 7762 16940 25463 29600 31852 32874 33250 75+ 7120 9755 20405 44421 62635 69832 74497 76914 TOTAL 330398 410875 524476 591222 619700 632604 640304 644034 FEMALES 0-4 36417 37466 37580 37319 37169 37124 37123 37126 5-9 33717 38453 37751 37190 37081 37089 37106 37110 10-14 32518 37557 37233 36945 37031 37097 37114 37112 15-19 31422 36074 36241 36815 37069 37126 37118 37108 20-24 31116 33604 36382 37001 37169 37139 37101 37092 25-29 28459 32430 37243 37397 37216 37094 37065 37071 30-34 25197 31276 38m72 37540 37067 36995 37025 37052 35-39 21234 30852 37330 36950 36769 36907 37003 37035 40-44 m721 28069 35749 35865 36567 36892 36994 37006 45-49 14543 24650 33088 35565 36650 36919 36952 36942 50-54 13070 20525 31568 36466 36872 36845 36815 36828 55-59 12428 16341 29955 37097 36752 36515 36580 36672 60-64 11231 13409 28889 35649 35804 35962 36297 36485 65-69 9314 11518 25396 33366 34219 35382 35994 36229 70-74 7595 10147 21038 29716 33064 34833 35542 35780 75+ 11500 16629 33435 68900 93682 102703 108410 111428 TOTAL 336983 419000 536849 609779 640183 652621 660240 664076 BIRTH RATE 21.6 16.3 13.4 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.3 6.7 8.5 10.5 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .2 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.45 .98 .49 .19 .08 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.662 2.167 2.073 2.064 2.061 2.059 2.059 eO) - BOTH SEXES 71.67 76.16 80.39 82.93 84.35 85.44 85.87 INR - BOTH SEXES 36.2 17.7 5.2 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 18 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN Populatfon Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 399445 440766 483233 524032 562470 600038 637907 674790 709350 741083 MALES 0-4 27401 28555 28951 28215 27o3 27275 28052 28388 28157 27794 s-sll 25104 26927 28171 28635 27966 27006 27122 27927 28292 28089 10-14 23657 24890 26748 28016 28504 27861 26927 27058 27876 28254 15-19 21630 23408 24678 265'-7 27849 28360 27745 26829 26974 27806 20-24 19511 21203 23051 24. Z 26285 27612 28162 27573 26683 26850 25-29 16310 18989 20775 22679 24050 26008 27379 27951 27392 26533 30-34 13730 15851 18599 20433 am 23791 25783 27169 27764 27234 35-39 11048 13341 15511 18282 20151 22124 23561 25562 26964 27581 40-44 9035 10709 13021 15201 17980 19861 21845 23290 25296 26713 45-49 7642 8711 10383 12676 14850 17607 19487 21467 22918 24928 50-54 6451 7284 8340 9978 12226 14362 17074 18942 20914 22375 55-59 5494 6018 6822 7842 9421 11590 13668 16313 18168 20135 60-64 4348 4955 5449 6208 7174 8669 10728 12726 15281 17121 65-69 3229 3719 4262 4720 5421 6319 7698 9603 11483 13906 70-74 2393 2535 2941 3409 3828 4450 5250 6467 8157 9862 75+ 2612 2799 3027 3470 4134 4859 5777 6976 8682 11099 TOTAL 199595 219893 240729 260686 279422 297753 316259 334241 351001 366280 FEMALES 0-4 26578 27517 27866 27125 26118 26163 26884 27179 26934 26561 5-9 24481 26161 27191 27603 26921 25961 26046 26792 27112 26891 10-14 23134 24296 26015 27069 27503 26845 25907 26004 26760 27092 15-19 21181 22942 24145 25885 26961 27417 26780 25855 25964 26730 20-24 19287 20875 22707 23947 25723 26832 27320 26701 25794 25918 25-29 16289 18934 20607 22479 23763 25575 26721 27224 26624 25737 30-34 13825 15989 18696 20403 22310 23623 25461 26618 27136 26554 35-39 11161 13577 15785 18510 20241 22165 23497 ;2342 26512 27043 0-44 9176 10958 13392 15608 18340 20079 22011 23350 25201 26383 45-49 7840 8988 10774 13200 15416 18138 19879 21811 23156 25014 50-54 6709 7632 8782 10557 12966 15164 17866 19604 21536 22891 55-59 5784 6459 7381 8523 10281 12652 14826 17500 19236 21169 60-64 4690 5454 6130 7045 8181 9899 12218 14360 17002 18743 65-69 3602 4257 5003 5679 6590 7693 9358 11609 13714 16321 70-74 2790 3054 3670 4390 5064 5932 6989 8576 10733 12790 75+ 3323 3781 4361 5325 6670 8147 9885 12021 14934 18966 TOTAL 199850 220873 242504 263347 283048 302284 321647 340549 358349 374804 BIRTH RATE 28.4 26.0 23.0 20.4 19.0 18.2 17.3 16.2 15.1 DEATH RATE 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.12 1.94 1.69 1.46 1.32 1.24 1.13 1.00 .88 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.5 -.9 -.7 -.5 -.3 -.1 -.1 -.0 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.97 1.84 1.62 1.42 1.29 1.22 1.12 1.00 .88 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.532 3.116 2.737 2.421 2.261 2.200 2.154 2.114 2.087 NRR 1.581 1.416 1.260 1.126 1.058 1.036 1.021 1.009 1.003 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 66.83 68.39 69.98 71.56 72.66 73.80 74.99 76.23 77.53 e(1s) - BOTH SEXES 56.69 57.61 58.57 59.60 60.28 61.01 61.76 62.56 63.40 INR - BOTH SEXES 53.1 46.2 39.0 32.3 27.4 22.5 17.6 12.7 7.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0653 .0562 .0472 .0391 .0333 .0275 .0217 .0160 .0102 DEP. RATIO 72.8 68.1 63.8 58.6 53.5 49.4 47.7 47.9 48.9 50.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 19 Sumary Projectfon for 25-Year Periods LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 399445 524032 709350 838581 893748 915957 929020 935392 MALES 0-4 27401 28215 281S7 28048 27944 27904 27902 27904 5-9 25104 28635 28292 27940 27867 27868 27882 27886 10-14 23657 28016 27876 27722 27814 27867 27885 27885 15-19 21630 26557 26974 27541 27814 27875 27876 27869 20-24 19511 24366 26683 27571 27838 27844 27823 27819 25-29 16310 22679 27392 27774 27801 27743 27731 27741 30-34 13730 20433 27764 27821 27615 27598 27636 27665 35-39 11048 18282 26964 27278 27289 27454 27556 27594 40-44 9035 15201 25296 26234 26972 27339 27466 27496 45-49 7642 12676 22918 25746 26830 27223 27312 27330 50-54 6451 9978 20914 26031 26718 26933 26991 27034 55-59 5494 7842 18168 25698 26227 26321 26478 26596 60-64 4348 6208 15281 23939 24924 25368 25779 25995 65-69 3229 4720 11483 21005 22826 24108 24818 25107 70-74 2393 3409 8157 17084 20692 22501 23394 23724 75+ 2612 3470 8682 25496 42120 48574 52578 54588 TOTAL 199595 260686 351001 412929 439291 450521 457107 460235 FEMALES 0-4 26578 27125 26934 26757 26644 26604 26601 26603 5-9 24481 27603 27112 26677 26578 26577 26588 26592 10-14 23134 27069 26760 26489 26532 26579 26594 26593 15-19 21181 25885 25964 26356 26549 26600 26598 26590 20-24 19287 23947 25794 26463 26623 26614 26586 26579 25-29 16289 22479 26624 26779 26674 26585 26559 26563 30-34 13825 20403 27136 26934 26577 26510 26527 26547 35-39 11161 18510 26512 26524 26348 26434 26508 26535 40-44 9176 15608 25201 25654 26157 26410 26499 26514 45-49 7840 13200 23156 25370 26181 26426 26471 26467 50-54 6709 10557 21536 25989 26356 26383 26372 26383 55-59 5784 8523 19236 26182 26300 26144 26193 26263 60-64 4690 7045 17002 25149 25600 25714 25968 26119 65-69 3602 5679 13714 23274 24328 25227 25725 25927 70-74 2790 4390 10733 20438 23359 24757 25377 25594 75+ 3323 5325 14934 40617 63650 71873 76747 79291 TOTAL 199850 263347 358349 425652 454457 465436 471913 475158 BIRTH RATE 25.6 18.1 14.1 12.6 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.6 5.9 7.4 10.0 11.1 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.0 -.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.81 1.21 .67 .25 .10 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.096 2.224 2.076 2.0e4 2.061 2.058 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 68.49 73.99 79.14 82.25 83.95 85.24 85.75 INR - BOTH SEXES 46.2 22.4 6.1 3.3 2.6 2.2 2.1 20 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS NORTHERN AME'RICA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GRBP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL NeF 267936 280148 293597 305843 316761 326556 335745 344484 351975 357517 MALES 0-4 10320 10775 11274 10878 10653 10725 10979 11189 11212 11118 5-9 9685 10446 10909 11396 10974 10722 10767 11006 11198 11201 10-14 9868 9778 10547 11002 11469 11028 10756 10792 11017 11195 15-19 10670 9951 9870 10630 11066 11512 11053 10773 10795 11007 20-24 12058 10835 10129 10029 10751 11146 11554 11076 10770 10766 25-29 12277 12278 1'072 10340 10194 10859 11202 11579 11067 10726 30-34 11329 12454 12,65 11243 10475 10284 10903 11220 11565 11025 35-39 9882 11433 12563 12561 11320 10523 10301 10900 11194 11516 40-44 7785 9905 11455 12572 12559 11305 10494 10264 10845 11123 45-49 6410 7729 9832 11367 12472 12452 11207 10404 10173 10745 50-54 5977 6267 7571 9640 11157 12243 12229 11015 10232 10009 55-59 6035 5724 6030 7309 9334 10817 11887 11894 10730 9983 60-64 5707 5616 5368 5693 6942 8892 10338 11398 11441 10355 65-69 4Y12 5085 5063 4892 5241 6427 8278 9678 10732 10834 70-74 3581 3907 4297 4353 4275 4623 5723 7442 8782 9830 75+ 4508 4817 5455 6286 6948 7322 7887 9259 11723 14596 TOTAL 130803 137001 143899 150190 155829 160881 165558 169889 173475 176029 FEMALES 0-4 9839 10248 10721 10341 10124 10190 10429 10627 10646 10554 5-9 9236 9974 10391 10850 10445 10199 10238 10461 10639 10639 10-14 9384 9334 10080 10489 10928 10502 10237 10265 10473 10638 15-19 10242 9489 9451 10189 10575 10990 10542 10265 10277 10470 20-24 11829 10441 9709 9657 10352 10693 11066 13595 10288 10269 25-29 12170 12060 10697 9950 9849 10490 10781 11125 10619 10276 30-34 11372 12335 12243 10873 10090 9949 10551 10820 11136 10603 35-39 10072 11464 12439 12342 10952 10145 9979 10567 10818 11116 40-44 8045 10095 11491 12461 12355 10958 10141 9970 10547 10790 45-49 6703 8016 10059 11450 12415 12307 10915 10103 9931 10505 50 54 6361 6633 7939 9968 11353 12312 12209 10833 10032 9865 55-59 6644 6242 6521 7817 9828 11202 12159 12069 10719 9934 60-64 6541 6445 6073 6364 7649 9632 10996 11955 11886 10574 65-69 5712 6222 6163 5839 6149 7411 9358 10714 11682 11649 70-74 4805 5234 5757 5757 5503 5824 7056 8955 10305 11293 75+ 8177 8913 9966 11304 12364 12870 13531 15271 18501 22311 TOTAL 137133 143147 149698 155653 16032 165675 170186 174595 178500 181487 BIRTH RATE 15.4 15.4 14.2 13.4 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.6 12.3 DEATH RATE 8.8 8.3 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.5 9.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. .66 .71 .62 .55 .50 .48 .46 .41 .31 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.1 .7 .5 .2 .0 GROWTH RATE .89 .94 .82 .70 .61 .56 .51 .43 .31 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.867 1.988 1.998 2.009 2.020 2.031 2.042 2.053 2.063 NRR .893 .951 .958 .965 .972 .978 .985 .991 .998 eCo) - BOTH SEXES 75.68 76.74 77.82 78.83 79.49 80.16 80.86 81.59 82.34 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 61.79 62.75 63.71 64.63 65.21 65.80 66.42 67.06 67.72 IMR - BOTH SEXES 10.1 8.9 7.6 6.6 5.9 5.2 4.5 3.8 3.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0126 .0112 .0097 .0085 .0077 .0069 .0061 .0052 .0044 DEP. RATIO 50.4 51.1 52.1 51.1 49.6 49.3 52.3 57.4 63.7 68.9 WORLI, GEOORAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 21 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods NORTHERN AMERICA AGE GROW 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL NIF 267936 305843 351975 362420 366135 369267 371524 372717 MALES 0-4 10320 10878 11212 11126 11088 11082 11084 11086 5.9 9685 11396 11198 11071 11061 11072 11078 11079 10-14 9868 11002 11017 11010 11056 11076 11079 11078 15-19 10670 10630 10795 11007 11072 11079 11074 11071 20-24 12058 10029 10770 11072 11082 11063 11053 11052 25-29 12277 10340 11067 11125 11052 11021 11020 11024 30-34 11329 11243 11565 11081 10971 10971 10988 10996 35-39 9882 12561 11194 10861 10876 1093S 10963 10971 40-44 7785 12572 10845 10591 10831 NQ13 10932 109S3 45-49 6410 11367 10173 10505 10842 1087O 10872 10870 50-54 5977 9640 10232 10683 10797 10760 10751 107S9 55-59 6035 7309 10730 10962 10590 10538 10569 10600 60-64 5707 5693 11441 10319 10139 10230 10332 10381 65-69 4712 4892 10732 9577 9530 9857 9999 10049 70-74 3581 4353 8782 8378 8907 9351 9480 9525 75+ 4508 6286 11723 18926 20515 21257 21920 2226 TOTAL 130803 150190 173475 178293 180409 182082 183196 183799 FEMALES 0-4 9839 10341 10646 10563 10526 10520 10522 10523 5-9 9236 10850 10639 10513 10504 10513 10518 10519 10-14 9384 10489 10473 10455 10500 10518 10520 10519 15-19 10242 10189 10277 10459 10520 10526 10521 10517 20-24 11829 9657 10288 10538 10546 10525 10515 10S13 25-29 12170 9950 10619 10619 10542 10509 10505 10508 30-34 11372 10873 11136 10606 10489 10485 10498 10504 35-39 10072 12342 10818 10426 10421 10473 10496 10501 40-44 8045 12461 10547 10211 10410 10482 10495 10492 45-49 6703 11450 9931 10195 10469 10492 10401 10475 50-54 6361 9968 10032 10477 10516 10463 10443 10446 55-59 6644 7817 10719 10914 10452 10371 10387 10409 60-64 6541 6364 118B6 10500 10204 10248 10329 10365 65-69 5712 5839 11682 10091 9891 10155 10269 10302 70-74 4805 5757 10305 9277 9705 10076 10165 10186 75* 8177 11304 18501 28282 30032 30829 31664 32137 TOTAL 137133 155653 178500 184127 185726 187185 188327 188918 BIRTH RATE 15.0 13.0 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 8.3 8.2 10.9 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 NET NIGRATION RATE 2.2 .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .88 .56 .12 .04 .03 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.958 2.031 2.066 2.064 2.063 2.062 2.061 e(0) - BTH SEXES 76.78 80.23 83.10 84.56 85.36 85.94 86.18 INR - BOTN SEXES 8.9 5.2 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 22 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC RE3IONS, MD INCOME GROUPS ASIA TOTAL Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 l995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 2823497 3102850 338003 3650279 3908882 4158824 4403459 4647127 4884830 5108974 NAL¶ES 0-4 175999 194785 198645 195373 194025 194521 197011 202047 204892 204712 5-9 161524 171999 191150 195441 192755 191731 192568 195411 200783 203965 10-14 168685 160336 170865 190063 194484 191912 190990 191935 194893 200377 15-19 160323 167439 159203 169731 188977 193476 191013 190191 191239 194303 20-24 138554 158660 165800 157667 168211 187477 192077 189760 189071 190253 25-29 116793 136846 156885 164028 156029 166573 185864 190581 188431 187894 30-34 107011 115244 135212 155190 162347 154474 165032 184363 189206 187228 35-39 84183 105434 113627 133499 153417 160590 152862 163443 182817 187801 40-44 69176 82583 103583 111727 131473 151271 158464 150920 161520 180921 45-49 62905 6729 80513 101173 109240 128756 148375 155593 148296 158899 50-54 56174 60371 64717 77655 97797 105708 1214868 144197 151433 144483 55-59 47198 52784 56859 61148 73678 93037 100729 119369 138272 145520 60-64 36259 42906 48187 52124 56358 68262 86535 93919 111830 130133 65-69 26551 31322 37303 42207 45986 50032 61065 77856 84804 101688 70-74 18365 21126 25166 30311 34739 38177 41929 51765 66568 72894 75+ 16418 20674 24875 30232 37442 45166 52464 59793 72265 92247 TOTAL 1446117 1589805 1732591 1867571 1996959 2121163 2241844 2361144 2476319 2583318 FEMALES 0-4 166265 186539 190653 187939 186759 186949 189031 193548 195957 195466 5-9 151547 162388 183099 187851 185784 184857 185324 187694 192486 195176 10-14 158346 150394 161309 182133 187054 185080 184241 184805 187278 192170 15-19 151120 157097 149318 160280 181216 186221 184357 183624 184302 186895 20-24 130806 149434 155584 147967 159020 180020 185158 183463 182893 183746 25-29 109717 128937 147673 153935 146549 157639 178731 184044 182565 182206 30-34 100319 107916 127172 145943 152377 145145 156287 177487 182998 181755 35-39 78819 98530 106184 125414 144254 150763 143710 154921 176239 181969 40-44 65120 77151 96708 104388 123592 142389 148987 142145 153435 174870 45-49 59265 63383 75330 94668 102372 121431 140157 146858 140271 151639 50-54 53226 57152 61297 73116 92162 99812 118670 137292 14122 137859 55-59 45160 50561 54470 58651 70303 88883 96473 115074 133569 140581 60-64 36503 41805 47046 50938 55177 66516 84477 92009 110291 128657 65-69 28192 32330 37n3 42302 46194 50412 61321 78451 85930 103822 70-74 20725 23158 26858 31324 36027 397M3 43941 54223 70190 77580 75+ 22248 26272 30417 35858 43081 51760 60750 70345 85986 111263 TOTAL 137738 1513045 1650411 1782708 1911924 2037661 2161615 2285983 2408511 2525656 BIRTH RATE 28.0 25.9 23.3 21.3 19.9 18.8 18.1 17.3 16.4 DEATH RATE 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.90 1.74 1.53 1.38 1.25 1.15 1.08 1.00 .90 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.89 1.73 1.52 1.37 1.24 1.14 1.08 1.00 .90 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.479 3.162 2.868 2.690 2.541 2.412 2.344 2.295 2.246 NRR 1.478 1.355 1.248 1.200 1.152 1.102 1.082 1.071 1.060 O) - BOTH SEXES 63.78 65.13 66.65 68.23 69.39 70.62 71.92 73.29 74.74 c(1S) - BOTH SEXES 55.02 55.69 56.49 57.36 58.08 58.85 59.66 60.52 61.42 INR - BOTH SEXES 70.4 62.7 55.1 47.9 42.4 36.3 30.3 24.3 18.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0945 .0834 .0725 .0621 .0549 .0470 .0390 .0312 .0233 DEP. RATIO 65.2 61.5 60.7 58.8 54.8 51.3 49.6 49.9 50.6 52.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 23 Sumary Projection for 25-Year Periods ASIA TOTAL AGE GR0UP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 28397 3650279 4884830 5811163 6318546 6596353 6747477 6817277 MALES 0-4 175999 195373 204892 205731 204948 204489 204434 206414 5-9 161524 195441 200783 204735 204406 204248 204288 204283 10-14 168685 190063 194893 203469 203930 204245 204309 204277 15-19 160323 169731 191239 202781 203867 204277 204227 204161 20-24 138554 157667 189071 202382 204111 204021 203814 203791 25-29 116793 164028 188431 201258 203529 203279 rC3162 203219 30-34 107011 155190 189206 196885 201967 202239 202468 202652 35-39 84183 133499 182817 190154 199858 201052 201856 202113 40-44 69176 111727 161520 185353 198112 200110 201136 201357 45-49 62905 101173 148296 181629 196346 199259 199942 200093 50-54 56174 77655 151433 178086 192774 196687 197510 197901 55-59 47198 61148 138272 173776 184430 191783 193632 194619 60-64 36259 52124 111830 160329 171957 184690 188198 190086 65-69 26551 42207 84804 131130 158516 175425 180802 183368 70-74 18365 30311 66568 107478 142136 162282 170006 172947 75+ 16418 30232 72265 185620 270321 330795 374830 394054 TOTAL 1446117 1867571 2476319 2910796 3141208 3268880 3334616 3363337 FEMALES 0-4 166265 187939 195957 196040 195229 194829 194793 194785 5-9 151547 187851 192486 195237 194745 194632 194694 194701 10-14 158346 182133 187278 194171 194303 194637 194726 194708 15-19 151120 160280 184302 193787 194353 194757 194735 194683 20-24 130806 147967 182893 193926 194925 194807 194618 194594 25-29 109717 153935 182565 193724 194973 194559 194422 194463 30-34 100319 145943 182998 190304 194032 193988 194162 194331 35-39 78819 125414 176239 184531 192548 193256 193958 194199 4-44 65120 104388 153435 180709 191569 192905 193795 193987 45-49 59265 94668 140271 178107 190838 192904 193449 193564 50-54 53226 73116 144122 175903 189212 191990 192541 192858 55-59 45160 58651 133569 173390 183719 189594 190980 191828 60-64 36503 50938 110291 162667 175017 186026 188843 190524 65-69 28192 42302 85930 135439 166691 181940 186417 188733 70-74 20725 31324 70190 115703 156889 176135 182985 185710 75+ 22248 35858 85986 236728 368295 460513 527742 560271 TOTAL 1377380 1782708 2408511 2900367 31m38 3327473 3412860 3453939 BIRTH RATE 25.6 19.0 15.1 13.2 12.4 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 8.5 7.4 8.2 9.9 10.7 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.71 1.17 .69 .33 .17 .09 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.148 2.447 2.187 2.081 2.067 2.060 2.059 etO) - BOTH SEXES 65.27 70.83 76.59 80.35 82.70 84.58 85.33 IMR - BOTH SEXES 62.8 36.2 13.6 5.6 3.6 2.4 2.2 24 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS EAST AND SOUTEWAST ASIA Population ProJectfan (thousnds) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1 99 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1652907 1787967 1921726 2044169 2154742 2256704 2356015 2453695 2546439 2630222 MALES 0-4 85291 96439 98110 94404 90219 88713 90386 92745 93456 92531 5-9 84518 84216 95514 97336 93797 89716 8s296 90040 92473 93262 10-14 97557 84095 83839 95165 97033 93544 89512 88132 89913 92383 15-19 96882 96991 83630 83418 94771 96675 93238 89258 87923 89741 20-24 83090 96054 96206 82976 82O 94181 96131 92768 88861 87587 25-29 68640 82230 95154 95374 82277 82162 93528 95528 92245 88420 30-34 67017 67867 81403 94336 94596 81622 81551 92927 94981 91781 35-39 51942 66175 67053 80563 93478 93785 80948 80931 92322 94441 40-44 42115 51096 65173 66114 79556 92411 92779 80121 80173 91573 45-49 39074 41111 49987 63872 64872 78181 90945 91402 79o01 79147 50-54 35223 37671 39n7 48459 62040 63086 76181 88793 89375 mso 55-59 29828 33308 35715 37815 46331 59436 60559 73351 85753 86525 60-64 22792 27335 30684 33066 35245 43404 55864 57113 69509 81653 65-69 16659 19908 24061 27260 29629 31804 39470 51062 52485 64344 70-74 11489 13471 16292 19954 22964 25184 27326 34308 44735 46367 75. 10345 13350 16469 20466 25954 31708 37035 42078 51110 65837 TOTAL 842462 911318 979017 1040579 1095581 1145614 1193749 1240557 1284313 1322944 FEMALES 0-4 80181 92560 94337 90674 86560 85018 86520 88675 89249 88264 5-9 79575 79325 91849 93760 90241 86199 84715 86267 88472 89100 10-14 92143 79240 79037 91599 93554 90067 86056 84598 86174 8840? 15-19 92296 91694 78892 78742 91347 93328 89876 85902 84475 86078 20-24 79356 91620 91110 78449 7372 90998 93019 89625 85708 84331 25-29 65553 7B594 90882 90498 773 7761 90614 92690 897370 85524 30-34 63654 64827 77847 90186 89934 7m538 77554 90236 92374 89134 35-39 48586 62864 64095 77114 89501 89320 77052 77126 89t,38 92048 40-44 39086 47851 62000 63318 76319 88685 88591 76482 766&8 89369 45-49 36200 38291 46975 60978 62385 75296 87627 87649 75755 75996 50-54 33239 35157 37270 45862 59664 61138 74.28 86215 86401 74802 55-59 28539 31867 33788 35950 44422 57910 59485 72129 84375 84798 60-64 23590 26774 30013 31962 34205 42469 55546 57280 69758 81993 65-69 18487 21318 24321 27454 29487 31792 39779 52318 54307 66616 70-74 13915 15642 18194 20957 23995 26064 28449 36051 47862 50226 75+ 16045 19023 22100 26086 31180 37308 43453 49893 61381 80598 TOTAL 810445 876649 942709 1003590 1059161 1111089 1162265 1213138 1262125 1307278 BIRTH RATE 23.0 21.6 19.3 17.3 16.1 15.7 15.3 14.8 14.1 DEATH RATE 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.58 1.46 1.25 1.06 .93 .87 .82 .74 .65 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.57 1.4 1.24 1.05 .92 .86 .81 .74 .65 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.716 2.489 2.289 2.182 2.131 2.108 2.100 2.093 2.086 NRR 1.241 1.142 1.057 1.019 1.002 .996 .998 .999 1.001 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 68.20 69.46 70.81 72.24 73.26 74.34 75.48 76.68 77.96 ecIS) - BOTH SEXES 56.93 57.61 58.47 59.46 60.23 61.04 61.91 62.83 63.82 INR - BOTH SEXES 39.9 34.0 28.3 23.2 20.3 17.3 14.2 11.1 8.1 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0515 .0432 .0357 .0290 .0254 .0217 .0179 .0141 .0103 DEP. RATIO 57.9 52.9 52.8 52.7 49.6 46.6 45.9 48.0 50.2 53.6 WORLD, OBOORAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 25 Sury Projectfon for 25-Year Periods EAST AND SOUTEAST ASIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1652907 2044169 2546439 2840284 M0043 3012583 3053635 3074496 HALES 0-4 85291 94404 93456 92186 91751 91684 91713 91722 5-9 84518 97336 92473 91437 91490 91617 91670 91668 10-14 97557 95165 89913 907M9 91506 91692 91691 91661 15-19 96882 83418 87923 90998 91753 91741 91640 91599 20-24 83090 82976 88861 91896 91855 91561 91431 91431 25-29 68640 95374 92245 92357 91419 91118 91129 91191 30-34 67017 94336 94981 91134 90432 90643 90870 90967 35-39 51942 80563 92322 88219 89465 90368 90691 90750 40-44 42115 66114 80173 85778 89234 90255 90429 90413 45-49 39074 63872 79001 8668 89581 89911 89858 9e83s sC-54 35223 48459 89375 88132 89057 88682 88711 88876 55-59 29828 37815 85753 88631 86231 86373 87059 87509 60-64 22792 33066 69509 83014 81070 83428 84997 85644 65-69 16659 2n60 52485 67743 75312 80142 82135 82793 70-74 11489 19954 44735 60853 70202 75698 77558 78244 75+ 10345 20466 51110 125605 150242 163782 174706 180741 TOTAL 842462 1040579 1284313 1414848 1460600 1488695 1506287 1515046 FEMALES 0-4 80181 90674 89249 87868 87447 87395 87427 87438 5-9 79575 93760 88472 87191 87213 87347 87404 87405 10-14 92143 91599 86174 86613 87233 87424 87431 87405 15-19 92296 78742 84475 86878 87512 87509 87422 87384 20-24 79356 78449 85708 87919 87750 87463 87343 87341 25-29 65553 90498 89370 88712 87567 87238 8n42 87296 30-34 63654 90186 92374 87870 86834 869n 87177 87265 35-39 48586 77114 89838 85393 86110 86887 87177 8722 40-44 39086 63318 76628 83437 86169 87021 87158 87135 45-49 36200 60978 75755 84239 86907 87058 86969 86938 50-54 33239 45862 86401 87103 87198 86546 86504 86640 55-59 28539 35950 84375 88872 85625 85320 85878 86277 60-64 23590 31962 69758 84778 82155 83893 85279 85853 65-69 18487 27454 54307 70024 78734 82887 84650 85206 70-74 13915 20957 47862 65836 76953 81837 83424 83983 75+ 16045 26086 61381 162702 208034 231092 248860 258654 TOTAL 810445 1003590 1262125 1425436 1489442 1523888 1547347 1559450 BIRTH RATE 21.2 15.8 13.3 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.0 7.0 9.0 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.4 MET NIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.42 .88 .44 .15 .08 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.481 2.122 2.078 2.066 2.061 2.059 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 69.55 74.50 79.39 82.26 83.94 85.23 85.74 INR - BOTH SEXES 34.1 17.2 6.3 3.4 2.7 2.2 2.0 26 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REPIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS SOUTH ASIA Population Projectlon (thousandb) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1055231 1182312 1308211 1431n2 1557371 1682379 1803830 1925280 2045815 2162486 MALES 0-4 81638 87792 88533 88072 90176 91573 91625 93668 95545 96306 5-9 69157 78899 85222 86272 86215 88532 90174 90493 92782 94897 10-14 6408l 68443 78160 84530 85665 85672 88042 89749 90142 92500 15-19 57248 63453 67797 77492 83888 85070 85136 87553 89316 89774 20-24 50031 56473 62607 66965 76629 83049 84296 84437 86913 88745 25-29 43374 49243 55588 61716 66084 75719 82174 83494 83722 86266 30-34 35985 42653 48435 54761 60870 65252 74865 8135f 82754 83069 35-39 29008 35305 41864 47618 53909 59998 64393 73978 80503 81977 40-44 24499 28316 34494 40970 46675 52915 58972 63374 72912 79462 45-49 21607 23695 27421 33470 39821 45444 51605 57604 62001 71453 50-54 18931 20569 22593 26201 32052 38218 43714 49749 55652 60026 55-59 15744 17580 19140 21071 24508 30077 35970 41267 47103 52844 60-64 12328 14093 15777 17224 1903l 22231 27392 32885 37874 43390 65-69 9158 10427 11964 13440 14744 16383 19249 23845 28773 33309 70-74 6267 7070 8089 9325 10544 11661 13063 15476 19319 23481 75+ 5471 6622 7686 8a85 10319 11976 13688 15659 18546 23016 TOTAL 544526 610632 675368 738012 801128 863770 924357 984589 1043856 1100517 FEMALES 0-4 77254 83843 84802 84903 87146 88316 88177 89949 91554 92078 5-9 64386 74399 81232 82723 83312 85731 87109 87199 89181 90996 10-14 59404 63610 73618 80554 82169 82821 85296 86742 86908 88962 15-19 52953 58649 62892 72921 79928 81605 82331 84873 86400 86652 20-24 46302 52000 57715 62031 72079 79134 80905 81741 84386 86030 25-29 39958 45256 50965 56729 61119 71162 78287 80180 81154 83931 30-34 33146 38939 44241 49981 55786 60224 70273 77479 79506 80632 35-39 27356 32198 37954 43269 49029 54842 59333 69394 76689 78862 40-44 23655 26474 31272 36987 42300 48042 53861 58405 68473 75858 45-49 20927 22766 25575 30313 35966 41234 46944 52754 57341 67394 50-54 18127 l9921 21761 24544 29197 34737 39936 45591 51373 55991 55-59 15037 16913 18687 20518 23261 27m 33161 38264 43840 49576 60-64 11797 13545 15355 17090 18899 21549 25865 31051 36023 41489 65-69 8887 10007 11622 13316 14973 16704 19216 23258 28155 32932 70-74 6126 6830 7813 9209 10703 12199 13795 16090 19726 24183 75+ 5391 6331 7340 8622 10376 12538 14983 17720 21252 26402 TOTAL 510706 571680 632843 693710 756243 818609 879472 940691 1001959 1061969 BIRTH RATE 34.7 31.1 27.8 25.8 23.9 22.0 20.8 19.7 18.5 DEATH RATE 11.8 10.7 9.7 8.9 8.4 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.29 2.04 1.81 1.69 1.55 1.40 1.31 1.22 1.11 NET IGRATION RATE -.1 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.27 2.02 1.80 1.68 1.54 1.39 1.30 1.21 1.11 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.638 4.127 3.615 3.264 2.942 2.662 2.527 2.445 2.365 NRR 1.806 1.650 1.492 1.386 1.269 1.169 1.133 1.116 1.097 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 56.95 58.68 60.55 62.54 64.06 65.64 67.28 68.98 70.75 e(1s) - BOTH SEXES 52.01 52.79 53.54 54.34 55.11 55.90 56.73 57.58 58.47 INR - BOTH SEXES 101.6 92.6 82.2 71.4 62.9 54.4 45.6 36.7 27.8 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .1387 .1253 .1097 .0935 .0823 .0708 .0590 .0471 .0350 DEP. RATIO 76.5 74.4 71.7 66.1 60.4 56.0 52.9 51.0 50.0 49.8 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 27 Stumary Projection for 25-Year Periods SOUTH ASIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M4F 1055231 1431722 2045815 2570321 2894368 3076355 3174113 3217262 MALES 0-4 81638 88072 95545 97580 97357 97002 96926 96599 5-9 69157 66272 92782 97438 97130 96860 96838 96833 10-14 64081 84530 90142 97002 96701 96795 96836 96833 15-19 57248 77492 89316 96186 96458 96779 96807 96787 20-24 50031 66965 86913 94820 6572 96711 96631 96614 25-29 43374 61716 83722 93325 96330 96457 96336 96328 30-34 35985 54761 82754 90550 95900 95984 95967 96033 35-39 29008 47618 80503 87485 95016 95190 95596 95754 40-"4 24499 40970 72912 86031 93656 94496 95199 95391 45-49 21507 33470 62001 82810 91586 94050 94659 94795 50-54 18931 26201 55652 78194 8a82l 92m 93553 93741 55-59 15744 21071 47103 7618 83985 90595 91644 92096 60-64 12328 17224 37874 68542 77839 87098 88r24 89796 65-69 9158 13440 287r5 56479 71620 81866 84826 86459 70-74 6267 9325 19319 41288 61925 74117 79446 81393 75+ 5471 8885 18546 52502 103349 141976 171534 183176 TOTAL 544526 738012 1043856 1294850 1444245 1528752 1571523 1588928 FEMALES 0-4 m54 84903 91554 92967 92708 92408 92348 92331 5-9 6386 82723 89181 92931 92501 92282 92283 92287 10-14 59404 80554 86908 92621 92093 92219 92286 92292 15-19 52953 72921 86400 92023 91915 92244 92299 92288 20-24 46302 62031 84386 91023 92192 92321 92265 92249 25-29 39958 56729 81154 90055 92286 92300 92185 92175 30-34 33146 49981 79506 87782 92181 92044 92019 92087 35-39 27356 43269 76689 85158 91630 91474 91840 920c2 40-44 23655 36987 68473 84106 90692 91072 91707 91896 45-49 20927 30313 57341 81393 89193 91022 91562 91698 50-54 18127 24544 51373 77174 87412 90562 91173 91345 55-59 15037 20518 43840 73941 83948 89608 - 90766 60-64 11797 17090 36023 68853 79586 87840 89996 65-69 8887 13316 28155 57928 75769 85102 87458 88990 70-74 6126 9209 19726 43803 68862 80716 85508 87412 75+ 5391 8622 21252 63713 137155 194390 238279 258520 TOTAL 510706 693710 1001959 1275471 1450123 1547604 1602589 1628334 BIRTH RATE 31.0 22.2 16.8 13.9 12.7 12.1 11.9 DEATH RATE 10.7 8.1 7.7 9.2 10.3 10.9 11.3 MET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.03 1.43 .91 .47 .24 .13 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.087 2.735 2.274 2.096 2.071 2.062 2.060 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 58.85 65.93 73.31 78.35 81.48 83.97 84.94 INR - BOTH SEXES 92.2 54.2 20.1 7.4 4.5 2.6 2.3 28 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS SOUTHWEST ASIA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 115359 132571 153065 174389 196770 219742 243615 268153 292576 316266 MALES 0-4 9070 10554 12001 12897 13631 14234 15000 15634 15892 15874 5-9 7849 8a84 10415 11833 12744 13483 14098 14878 15528 15805 10-14 7046 7798 8866 10368 11786 12696 13436 14054 14838 15493 15-19 6193 6996 7T77 8820 10318 11731 12639 13380 14001 14788 20-24 5432 6133 6987 7725 8763 10247 11649 12556 13297 13922 25-29 4779 5372 6143 6938 7668 8692 10163 11559 12464 13208 30-34 4010 4724 5375 6094 6881 7600 8616 10079 11472 12378 35-39 3233 3955 4710 5318 6031 6807 7521 8534 9992 11382 40-44 2562 3171 3917 4643 5241 5944 6713 7424 8435 9685 45-49 2224 2490 3106 3831 4546 5131 5825 6587 7294 8299 50-54 2021 2131 2397 2996 3705 4403 4973 5655 6406 7108 55-59 1625 1896 2004 2263 2840 3525 4199 4751 5417 6152 60-64 1140 1478 1725 1834 2082 2627 3278 3921 4447 5090 65-69 734 987 1279 1506 1613 1845 2347 2948 3545 403W 70-74 609 584 785 1033 1231 1332 1539 1981 2514 3045 75+ 602 702 720 o 81 1169 1482 1741 2057 2609 3393 TOTAL 59130 67855 78206 s8898 100250 ll1779 123738 135998 148150 159856 FEMALES 0-4 8830 10135 11514 12361 13053 13615 14333 14924 15155 15123 5-9 7587 8663 10018 11369 12232 12928 13499 14229 14833 15081 10-14 6799 7543 8654 9980 11331 12193 12889 13464 14196 14806 15-19 5871 6754 7534 8616 9941 11289 12150 12849 13427 14165 20-24 5149 5814 6759 7487 8569 9888 11233 12096 12799 13385 25-29 4206 5086 5826 6708 7437 8516 9830 11174 12041 12751 30-34 3520 4150 5084 5776 6658 7383 8460 97m 11118 11990 35-39 2877 3468 4135 5032 5724 6601 7324 8401 9712 11059 40-44 2379 2825 3436 4083 4973 5662 6536 7258 8334 9643 45-49 2138 2326 2780 3377 4020 4901 5586 6455 7175 8250 50-54 1859 2074 2267 2710 3302 3938 4806 5486 6348 7067 55-59 1584 1782 1995 2184 2621 3202 3828 4680 5354 6207 60-64 1116 1486 1678 1885 2073 2498 3066 3678 4510 5175 65-69 818 1005 1350 1532 1734 1917 2326 2875 3469 4274 70-74 684 686 852 1158 1329 1519 1696 2082 2602 3172 75+ 813 919 977 1150 1524 1914 2314 2732 3353 4263 TOTAL 56230 64716 74859 85408 96520 107963 119877 132154 144427 156409 BIRTH RATE 36.3 35.4 32.9 30.4 28.1 26.4 24.8 22.e 20.8 DEATH RATE 8.4 7.9 6.9 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.78 2.75 2.59 2.41 2.21 2.06 1.92 1.74 1.56 NET MIGRATION RATE -.0 1.3 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.78 2.87 2.61 2.41 2.21 2.06 1.92 1.74 1.56 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.050 4.750 4.371 4.007 3.642 3.350 3.083 2.826 2.601 NRR 2.150 2.053 1.920 1.805 1.660 1.530 1.420 1.315 1.223 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 64.13 65.25 67.20 68.77 69.87 - 71.02 72.24 73.52 74.87 e15) - BOTH SEXES 55.70 55.97 57.12 57.94 58.55 59.20 59.90 60.65 61.46 IMR - BOTH SEXES 68.8 61.5 53.8 46.4 41.0 35.5 30.2 24.9 19.4 qtS) - BOTH SEXES .0925 .0816 .0707 .0604 .0536 .0467 .0399 .0329 .0257 DEP. RATIO 80.5 78.9 78.7 77.4 73.5 68.3 64.2 61.3 59.0 56.6 WORLD, GEOORAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME OROUPS 29 Su wery Projection for 25-Year Perfods SOUTHWEST ASIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL MF 115359 174389 292576 400557 474135 507414 519729 525518 MALES 0-4 9070 12897 15892 15966 15840 15803 15795 15793 5-9 7849 11833 15528 15860 15786 15m 15780 15782 10-14 7046 10368 14838 15668 15723 15757 15782 15783 15-19 6193 8820 14001 15597 15656 15757 15779 15m 20-24 5432 7725 13297 15666 15684 15749 15752 15747 25-29 4779 6938 12464 15576 15780 15703 15698 15700 30-34 4010 6094 11472 15202 15635 15612 15631 15652 35-39 3235 5318 9992 14450 15378 15493 15569 15609 40-44 256. 4643 8435 13544 15222 15358 15508 15554 45-49 2224 3831 7294 12751 15179 15299 15426 15460 50-54 2021 2996 6406 11760 14895 15230 15246 15284 55-59 1625 2263 5417 10527 14214 14815 14929 15014 60-64 1140 1834 4447 8m 13047 14165 14477 14645 65-69 734 1506 3545 6909 11584 13417 13842 14116 70-74 609 1033 2514 5337 10009 12467 13002 13310 75+ 602 881 2609 7512 16730 25037 28590 30138 TOTAL 59130 88981 148150 201098 236363 251433 256805 259363 FEMALES 0-4 8830 12361 15155 15204 15074 15027 15018 15016 5-9 7587 11369 14833 15114 15032 15003 15007 15009 10-14 6799 9980 14196 14938 14977 14994 15009 15011 15-19 5871 8616 13427 14885 14926 15004 15014 15011 20-24 5149 7487 12799 14984 14983 15024 15010 15004 25-29 4206 6708 12041 14957 15119 15021 14995 14992 30-34 3520 5776 11118 14652 15018 14972 14966 14979 35-39 2877 5032 9712 13980 14807 14894 14941 14968 40-44 2379 4083 8334 13166 14708 14812 14929 14956 45-49 2138 3377 7175 12476 14737 14824 14918 14928 50-54 1859 2710 6348 11625 14603 14882 14864 14873 55-59 1584 2184 5354 10578 14147 14665 14737 14785 60-64 1116 1885 4510 9035 13276 14293 14550 14675 65-69 818 1532 3469 7487 12187 13951 14309 14536 70-74 684 1158 2602 6064 11074 13582 14053 14316 75+ 813 1150 3353 10312 23106 35031 40603 43097 TOTAL 56230 85408 144427 199459 237772 255981 262924 266155 BIRTH RATE 34.7 26.1 18.1 14.1 12.6 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.7 5.7 5.7 7.4 9.9 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE .5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.75 2.07 1.26 .67 .27 .10 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.686 3.313 2.330 2.084 2.070 2.063 2.061 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 65.67 71.32 76.66 80.25 82.55 84.47 85.25 INR - BOTH SEXES 60.9 35.2 15.2 7.2 4.3 2.4 2.2 30 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS EUROPE AND FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS Population Projection (thousand) AGE GROUP 1985 l990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N4F 769742 790333 . 808216 825469 842364 857207 870514 882598 893937 904625 MALES 0-4 29556 29888 28959 28228 28317 28506 28501 28389 28333 28407 5-9 29272 29482 29752 28871 28146 28242 28442 28446 28343 28295 10-14 29468 29235 29396 29696 28819 28101 28205 28411 284?2 28326 15-19 30421 29377 29101 29298 29604 28740 28034 28145 28359 28378 20-24 29959 30255 29144 28931 29135 29450 28607 27916 28039 28263 25-29 30970 29763 29964 28940 28733 28945 29274 28450 2m6 27910 30-34 29695 30716 29471 29747 28739 28542 28767 29109 28306 27649 35-39 27508 29374 30361 29222 2951T 28526 28345 28584 28941 28163 40-44 21466 27092 28926 29985 28915 29222 28257 28093 28351 28728 45-49 21921 20991 26501 28373 29481 28478 28810 27M88 27746 28032 50-54 22195 21142 20308 25703 27596 28729 27822 28188 27317 2722S 55-59 19844 20938 20070 19377 24602 26477 27656 26892 27316 2653s 60-64 l175 18156 19283 18649 18138 23095 24958 26210 25654 26171 65-69 9965 15050 16007 17154 16812 16489 21096 22945 24294 24012 70-74 9379 8101 12350 13345 14505 14447 14348 18498 20317 21776 75+ 12159 12716 12333 15463 18583 21440 23307 24584 28969 33824 TOTAL 371030 382276 391924 400983 409643 417430 424429 430742 436483 4416&7 FENALES 0-4 28366 28488 27572 26859 26929 27107 27098 26985 26924 26987 5-9 27V81 283xa 28387 27515 26803 26878 27065 27063 26957 26902 10-14 28190 27978 28275 28359 27487 26779 26860 27051 27053 26951 15-19 28910 28182 27910 28240 28322 27455 26754 26.939 27034 27041 20-24 28980 28910 28073 27860 28182 28270 27413 26719 26809 27009 25-29 30216 28975 28778 28012 27791 28118 28215 27366 26677 26773 30-34 29232 30169 28842 28702 27935 27719 28054 28157 27315 26633 35-39 27315 29131 30013 28742 28606 27846 27639 27981 28091 27259 40-44 21550 27148 28936 29854 28606 28479 27733 27535 27886 28006 45-49 2279 21334 26885 28697 29637 28415 28304 27574 27390 277S4 50-54 23664 22339 21024 26543 28370 29323 28140 28049 27344 27180 55-59 22528 23066 21849 20624 26094 27920 28894 27768 27708 27041 60-64 22844 21646 22278 21207 20099 25477 27311 28325 27284 272n 65-69 15192 21391 20463 21226 20352 19362 24620 26478 27561 26653 70-74 15362 13580 19420 18835 19775 19089 18279 23373 25280 26481 75+ 25672 27391 27587 33212 37735 41540 43705 44592 50138 56981 TOTAL 398712 408057 416292 424486 432721 439177 446086 451855 457454 462928 BIRTH RATE 15.3 14.4 13.7 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.5 12.4 DEATH RATE 10.2 9.8 9.5 9.3 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.0 RATE OF MAT. INC. .50 .46 .42 .41 .35 .31 .28 .26 .24 NET NIGRATION RATE .2 -.2 .0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .53 .45 .42 .41 .35 .31 .28 .26 .24 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.042 l.992 963 1.984 2.004 2.012 2.024 2.043 2.062 NRR .973 .939 .932 .949 .962 .968 .974 .984 .996 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 73.12 74.42 75.68 76.90 77.64 78.42 79.24 80.10 81.00 eIS) - BOTH SEXES 59.67 60.81 61.90 62.96 63.60 64.27 64.97 65.71 66.49 INR - BOTH SEXES 17.5 14.9 12.5 10.6 9.4 8.1 6.7 S.4 4.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0214 .0183 .0155 .0132 .0118 .0103 .0087 .0072 .0056 DEP. RATIO 51.2 52.4 53.2 53.8 53.7 53.3 55.7 58.8 62.1 64.8 WORL.D, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 31 Suwnry Projection for 25-Year Periods EUROPE AND FORMER SOVIEr REPUBLICS AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N.F 769742 82549 893937 922094 930123 941153 949568 953780 MALES 0-4 29556 28228 28333 28407 28420 28420 28419 28418 5-9 29272 28871 28343 28390 28402 28399 28398 28397 10-14 29468 29696 28422 28388 28397 28393 28393 28393 15-19 30421 29298 28359 28370 28367 28371 28376 28378 20-24 29959 28931 28039 28253 28294 28317 28327 28332 25-29 30970 28940 27776 28056 28194 28236 28253 28260 30-34 29695 29747 28306 27981 28104 28154 28174 28184 35-39 27508 29222 28941 27940 28003 28063 28092 28107 40-44 21466 29985 28351 27729 27860 27929 27978 28003 45-49 21921 28373 27746 27238 27593 27725 27807 27843 50-54 22195 25703 27317 26655 27127 27393 27514 27567 55-59 19844 19377 27316 26592 26587 26907 27076 27151 60-64 17251 18649 25654 26284 25849 26210 26447 26557 65-69 9965 17154 24294 24441 24615 25168 25491 25658 70-74 9379 13345 20317 22021 22623 23534 24025 24274 75+ 12159 15463 28969 44454 48502 52073 55053 56581 TOTAL 371030 400983 436483 451198 456939 463292 467822 470102 FEMALES 0-4 28366 26859 26924 26970 26975 26971 26969 26967 5-9 27981 27515 26957 26968 26966 26958 26956 26954 10-14 28190 28359 27053 26976 26965 26956 26954 26953 15-19 28910 28240 27034 26984 26952 26950 26950 26951 20-24 28980 27860 26809 26935 26929 26940 26942 26944 25-29 30216 28012 26677 26841 26911 26928 26932 26933 30-34 29232 28702 27315 26857 26898 26914 26917 26919 35-39 27315 28742 28091 26909 26875 26889 26896 26901 40-44 21550 29854 27886 26832 26841 26845 26865 26876 45-49 22709 28697 27390 26528 26734 26778 26820 26837 50-54 23664 26543 27344 26264 26544 26688 26750 26774 55-59 22528 20624 27708 26685 26412 26565 26648 26682 60-64 22844 21207 27284 27131 26252 26385 26498 26550 65-69 15192 21226 27561 26478 25867 26119 26269 26356 70-74 15362 18835 25280 25286 25072 25634 25897 26039 75+ 25672 33212 50138 70253 73992 7341 80482 82041 TOTAL 398712 424486 457454 470896 473184 477861 481745 483678 BIRTH RATE 14.4 13.0 12.2 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.8 9.8 11.0 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.5 MET MIGRATION RATE .0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .47 .32 .12 .03 .05 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.002 2.013 2.067 2.065 2.064 2.062 2.062 etO) - BOTH SEXES 74.43 78.48 81.96 83.86 84.93 85.73 86.05 IIR - BOTH SEXES 15.0 8.0 3.6 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 32 WORtD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS OCEANIA TOTAL Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 24629 26735 28919 30979 32876 34556 36041 37348 38581 39733 HALES 0-4 1206 1261 1353 1376 1379 1372 1368 1358 1366 1381 5-9 1136 1226 1280 1369 1387 1384 1372 1364 1353 1362 10-14 1194 1154 1243 1294 1378 1392 1385 1370 1362 1352 15-19 1179 1210 1169 1254 1301 1381 1390 1381 1366 1359 20-24 1109 1206 1235 1189 1266 1305 1377 1382 1373 1360 25-29 1031 1147 1241 1261 1206 1272 1301 1366 1372 1366 30-34 942 1063 1176 1261 1273 1210 1268 1291 1356 1365 35-39 892 963 1081 1187 1266 1272 1203 1257 1281 1348 40-44 727 900 970 1084 1185 1258 1260 1189 1244 1269 45-49 625 724- 894 961 1072 1169 1239 1240 1172 1228 50-54 548 610 707 872 939 1047 1142 1210 1213 1148 55-59 545 523 583 679 839 905 1010 1103 1171 1177 60-64 465 504 487 545 639 792 858 961 1053 1121 65-69 356 412 450 439 495 586 730 796 896 987 70-74 263 294 346 383 378 431 515 648 714 811 75+ 277 338 400 482 566 616 690 815 1015 1209 TOTAL 12495 13535 14615 15634 16569 17391 18109 18731 19308 19842 FEMALES 0-4 1129 1203 1290 1311 1313 1306 1301 1291 1298 1312 5-9 1055 1151 1224 1308 1324 1320 1307 1298 1287 1295 10-14 1111 1075 1169 1239 1318 1329 1321 1305 1296 1286 15-19 1097 1132 1094 1184 1249 1323 1330 1318 1303 1295 20-24 1022 1138 1170 1124 1204 1259 1324 1324 1314 1300 25-29 983 1071 1182 1204 1148 1216 1260 1316 1318 1310 30-34 913 1018 1103 1206 1220 1155 1215 1253 1310 1314 35-39 861 933 1037 1117 1213 1221 1152 1207 1246 1304 0-44 684 867 939 1039 1117 1208 1213 1143 1199 1239 45-49 586 683 863 934 1032 1108 1197 1202 1133 1190 50-54 515 577 6-3 850 921 1018 1094 1182 1187 1120 55-59 522 501 362 658 831 903 999 1075 1162 1169 60-64 473 500 482 541 637 806 879 975 1051 1139 65-69 395 444 471 456 515 609 773 847 943 1020 70-74 324 357 404 431 421 477 570 728 803 900 75+ 463 550 639 744 845 906 996 1155 1423 1699 TOTAL 12134 13200 14304 15345 16307 17165 17931 18618 19273 19892 BIRTH RATE 19.6 19.3 18.2 17.1 16.1 15.4 14.7 14.3 13.9 DEATH RATE 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.7 8.1 RATE OF MAT. INC. 1.16 1.15 1.06 .97 .86 .79 .71 .65 .59 NET MIGRATION RATE 4.8 4.2 3.2 2.2 1.3 .6 .0 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.64 1.57 1.38 1.19 1.00 .84 .71 .65 .59 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.463 2.453 2.372 2.309 2.245 2.179 2.109 2.088 2.096 NRR 1.119 1.117 1.097 1.079 1.052 1.025 .997 .990 .997 .(0) - BOTH SEXES 71.89 72.85 73.88 74.92 75.65 76.43 77.26 78.17 79.13 W1S) - BOTH SEXES 58.82 59.52 60.31 61.15 61.85 62.59 63.39 64.26 65.18 INR - BOTH SEXES 27.0 23.5 19.5 16.1 15.3 14.5 13.5 12.9 12.4 qCS) - BOTH SEXES .0359 .0308 .0250 .0202 .0192 .0182 .0171 .0163 .0157 DEP. RATIO 56.7 54.8 55.1 53.7 52.5 51.4 52.0 53.2 55.4 58.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 33 Stumwary Projection for 25-Year Periods OCEANIA TOTAL AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 24629 30979 38581 42555 44041 44901 45521 45834 MALES 0-4 1206 1376 1366 1368 1371 1371 1371 1371 5-9 1136 1369 1353 1365 1371 1371 1371 1370 10-14 1194 1294 1362 1370 137 1371 1370 1370 15-19 1179 1254 1366 1375 1371 1369 1369 1369 20-24 1109 1189 1373 1369 1364 1365 1366 1367 25-29 1031 1261 1372 1348 1355 1361 1363 1364 30-34 942 1261 1356 1332 1350 1358 1360 1360 35-39 892 1187 1281 1334 1349 1355 1356 1356 40-64 727 1084 1244 1330 1348 1348 1349 1351 45-49 625 961 1172 1327 1334 1335 1340 1342 50-54 548 8an 1213 1307 1299 1314 1324 1329 55-59 545 679 1171 1261 1259 1288 1304 1309 60-64 465 545 1053 1149 1223 1257 1274 1280 65-69 356 439 896 1058 1162 1208 1226 1235 70-74 263 383 714 917 1073 1124 1150 1165 75+ 277 482 1015 1889 2185 2408 2600 2697 TOTAL 12495 15634 19308 21101 21786 22203 22493 22634 FEMALES 0-4 1129 1311 1298 1297 1300 1300 1300 1300 5-9 1055 1308 1287 1296 1300 1300 1300 1299 10-14 1111 1239 1296 1302 1302 1300 1299 1299 15-19 1097 1184 1303 1308 1302 1299 1299 1299 20-24 1022 1124 1314 1305 1297 1297 1298 1299 25-29 983 1204 1318 1289 1293 1296 1298 1298 30-34 913 1206 1310 1278 1291 1297 1298 1298 35-39 861 1117 1246 1283 1294 1297 1297 1296 4-44 684 1039 1199 1284 1298 1294 1294 1295 45-49 586 934 1133 1289 1291 1287 1290 1292 50-54 515 850 1187 1283 1268 1278 1286 1289 55-59 522 658 1162 1260 1246 1269 1280 1284 60-64 473 541 1051 1179 1236 1262 1273 1277 65-69 395 456 943 1110 1213 1249 1260 1265 70-74 324 431 803 1011 1178 1217 1234 1246 75+ 463 744 1423 2679 3146 3454 3722 3861 TOTAL 12134 15345 19273 21454 22256 22698 23028 23199- BIRTH RATE 19.0 15.4 13.2 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.8 7.5 9.4 11.0 11.3 11.3 11.4 NET NIGRATION RATE 4.0 .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.53 .88 .39 .14 .08 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.428 2.183 2.090 2.073 2.068 2.064 2.063 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 72.92 76.55 80.20 82.46 84.00 85.25 85.74 IMR - BOTH SEXES 23.2 14.4 9.2 4.1 2.9 2.2 2.1 34 WORLD, OEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS LOW-INCOME ECONOMIES Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL NF1 2743039 3039160 3342781 3641987 3939257 4233066 4524498 4817950 5107011 5381095 MALES 0-4 184341 206347 214396 215741 218846 221791 225485 231804 235237 234029 5-9 164192 178234 200458 208914 210852 214223 217582 221757 228555 232524 10-14 166561 162413 176399 198635 207125 209137 212596 216099 220446 227419 15-19 156628 164921 160776 174685 196847 205367 207453 211000 214641 219152 20-24 133799 154504 162714 158592 172342 194477 203045 205238 208911 212742 25-29 111468 131614 152141 160313 156145 169832 191946 200576 202905 206739 30-34 101005 109511 129493 149908 157953 153852 167490 189597 198310 200793 35-39 78050 99102 107490 127339 147548 155569 151546 165139 187245 196059 40-U 64282 76189 96934 105215 124824 144855 152849 148930 162470 184556 45-49 58192 62208. 73883 94244 102332 121678 141462 149418 145648 159104 50-54 51540 55558 59475 70839 90606 98494 117440 136854 144749 141192 55-59 43197 48155 51994 55795 66710 85689 93302 111668 130553 138347 60-64 33536 38990 43620 47255 50927 61248 79129 86362 103915 122058 65-69 24541 28708 33539 37769 41165 44636 54134 70517 M724 93645 70-74 16508 19284 22741 26798 30537 33580 36747 45125 59505 65488 75+ 14201 17906 21724 26286 31968 38116 44092 50059 60329 78387 TOTAL 1402040 1553646 1707778 1858328 2006727 2152545 2296298 2440144 2580643 2712233 FEMALES 0-4 175353 198803 207078 208927 212125 214795 218156 224042 227130 225721 5-9 155207 169483 193245 202167 204703 208128 211166 214950 221265 224837 10-14 157406 153480 167743 191601 200615 203214 206722 209895 213840 220323 15-19 148620 155774 151929 166190 190050 199109 201795 205406 208733 212854 20-24 126749 146565 153791 150075 164282 188167 197319 200147 203923 207470 25-29 105355 124543 144344 151670 148045 162237 186175 195463 198483 202478 30-34 95676 103242 122381 142168 149542 146026 160220 184227 193678 196923 35-39 74033 93610 101155 120239 139951 147371 143986 158198 182288 191931 40-44 61075 72124 91492 99017 117982 137590 145066 141842 156082 180258 45-49 55125 59152 70066 89180 96639 115440 134914 142455 139427 153690 50-54 49046 52878 56880 67621 86378 93757 112334 131631 139253 136472 55-59 41299 46286 50045 54025 64521 82806 90094 108379 127458 135196 60-64 33412 37878 42656 46328 50269 60431 78086 85271 103186 122010 65-69 25671 29192 33295 37781 41338 45219 54919 71719 78780 96221 70-74 18362 20666 23713 27302 31389 34766 38525 47554 63142 70001 75+ 18610 21838 25190 29365 34702 41464 48724 56628 69701 92478 TOTAL 1340999 1485513 1635003 1783658 1932530 2080521 2228200 2377805 2526368 2668862 BIRTH RATE 31.0 29.0 26.4 24.5 22.9 21.5 20.6 19.5 18.2 DEATH RATE 10.3 9.8 9.2 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.07 1.92 1.72 1.58 1.44 1.34 1.26 1.17 1.05 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.05 1.90 1.71 1.57 1.44 1.33 1.26 1.17 1.05 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.900 3.592 3.292 3.098 2.908 2.725 2.607 2.506 2.397 NRR 1.585 1.471 1.370 1.326 1.271 1.197 1.157 1.130 1.098 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 60.87 62.10 63.47 64.87 66.02 67.24 68.54 69.94 71.43 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 53.54 54.03 54.61 55.20 55.91 56.66 57.47 58.33 59.25 IKR - BOTH SEXES 82.4 75.3 68.3 60.9 55.5 49.5 43.5 37.5 31.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1173 .1069 .0965 .0851 .0779 .0696 .0610 .0524 .0436 DEP. RATIO 69.1 65.8 65.2 63.3 59.2 55.4 53.1 52.6 52.4 52.9 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 35 Surmry Projection for 25-Year Periods LOW-INCOME ECONOMIES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 2743039 3641987 5107011 6268152 6976702 7357538 7562156 7668248 MALES 0-4 184341 215741 235237 230120 230293 230522 230584 230526 5-9 164192 208914 228555 229288 229908 230320 230434 230361 10-14 166561 198635 220446 228710 229886 230224 230390 230321 15-19 156628 174685 214641 228271 229523 229869 230175 230168 20-24 133799 158592 208911 228799 228146 229061 229636 229759 25-29 111468 160313 202905 227544 226839 227990 228893 229136 30-34 101005 149908 198310 221403 225441 227058 228141 228486 35-39 78050 127339 187245 212170 223791 226153 227298 227772 40-44 64282 105215 162470 204787 221984 224687 226014 226747 45-49 58192 94244 145648 197192 220649 221967 224067 225192 50-54 51540 70839 144749 188184 216117 218151 220939 222618 55-59 43197 55795 130553 178391 204788 212486 216510 218771 60-64 33536 47255 103915 160194 188159 204415 210371 213261 65-69 24541 37769 M24 127575 169999 193005 201083 204908 70-74 16508 26798 59505 101034 147697 177235 186619 192153 75+ 14201 26286 60329 165131 259170 344102 400113 429990 TOTAL 1402040 1858328' 2580643 3128794 3452391 3627243 3721267 3770169 FEMALES 0-4 175353 208927 227130 221353 221098 220932 220921 220875 5-9 155207 202167 221265 220931 220951 220881 220825 220765 10-14 157406 191601 213840 220673 221100 220908 220799 220742 15-19 148620 166190 208733 220686 221046 220795 220701 220697 20-24 126749 150075 203923 221938 220278 220504 220520 220618 25-29 105355 151670 198483 221700 219813 220163 220408 220511 30-34 95676 142168 193678 216595 219227 219902 220262 220364 35-39 74033 120239 182288 208383 218389 219662 220016 220131 40-44 61075 99017 156082 202107 217568 219066 219533 219752 45-49 55125 89180 139427 195847 217578 217540 218726 219184 50-54 49046 67621 139253 188427 215363 215791 217526 218428 55-59 41299 54025 127458 180623 207435 213229 215963 217307 60-64 33412 46328 103186 165172 195278 209511 213859 215665 65-69 25671 37781 78780 134285 183024 204386 210536 213126 70-74 18362 27302 63142 110858 167625 197346 204609 208958 75+ 18610 29365 69701 209780 358537 489679 575685 620957 TOTAL 1340999 1783658 2526368 3139358 3524310 3730294 3840889 3898079 BIRTH RATE 28.7 21.6 16.3 13.7 12.7 12.1 11.9 DEATH RATE 9.7 8.2 8.2 9.5 10.5 11.0 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 CROITH RATE 1.89 1.35 .82 .43 .21 .11 .06 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.572 2.749 2.241 2.079 2.065 2.056 2.054 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 62.23 67.49 73.78 78.56 81.49 83.95 84.93 IMR - BOTH SEXES 75.3 49.3 23.3 9.4 5.2 2.6 2.3 36 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS LOWER-MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES Poputetion Projectfon (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M,+F 519741 575680 634722 695012 756543 817709 878783 939369 998962 1056764 MALES 0-4 37112 38997 40802 41963 43007 43582 44368 44973 45414 45574 5-9 33130 36320 38290 40152 41395 42474 43100 43940 44604 45109 10-14 30079 32836 36046 38024 39907 41165 42260 42910 43m 44467 15-19 27356 29760 32537 35744 37742 39636 40909 42021 42697 43590 20-24 23716 26873 29321 32099 35325 37343 39254 40549 41690 42405 25-29 20836 23168 26374 28827 31639 34874 36913 38848 40174 41353 30-34 17612 20336 22712 25912 28398 31222 34461 36524 38486 39847 35-39 14158 17158 19904 22276 25488 27982 30812 34057 36148 38141 40-44 11346 13732 16723 19450 21826 25025 27520 30354 33603 35722 45-49 10452 10920 13274 16217 18923 21279 24449 26940 29774 33025 50-54 9210 9932 10409 12697 15570 18225 20547 23673 26154 28981 55-59 7907 8563 9261 9739 11929 14698 17278 19553 22617 25083 60-64 6020 7101 7717 8379 8857 10919 13543 16021 18231 21209 65-69 4132 5119 6070 6635 7256 7739 9628 12052 14380 16491 70-74 3348 3216 4019 4808 5314 5885 6358 8012 10159 12268 75+ 3458 3807 3904 4538 5545 6534 7564 8594 10543 13532 TOTAL 259871 287839 317361 347460 378120 408581 438963 469021 498450 526797 FEMALES 0-4 35773 37631 39353 40447 41426 41949 42672 43220 43608 43722 5-9 31957 35074 37017 38795 39970 40980 41548 42318 42918 43362 10-14 29011 31698 34843 36798 38597 39785 40808 41396 42188 42811 15-19 26392 28740 31456 34604 36582 38393 39595 40636 41248 42066 20-24 23383 25999 28397 31124 34302 36304 38136 39363 40434 41085 25-29 20706 22942 25614 28025 30794 33989 36017 37875 39136 40247 30-34 17676 20308 22584 25265 27710 30495 33700 35753 37638 38934 35-39 14187 17325 19976 22256 24958 27412 30205 33417 35495 37408 40-44 11521 13881 17010 19653 21942 24642 27099 29898 33116 35219 45-49 10826 11230 13571 16671 19304 21584 24277 26733 29537 32761 50-54 9549 10477 10893 13201 16262 18868 21134 23815 26273 29082 55-59 8411 9128 10040 10468 12734 15735 18305 20555 23224 25687 60-64 6645 7865 8566 9457 9907 12109 15031 17558 19792 22454 65-69 4806 5975 7112 7795 8665 9138 11256 14074 16549 18773 70-74 4090 4021 5061 6084 6746 7578 8083 10082 12756 15165 75+ 4935 5548 5869 6910 8525 10168 11955 13656 16600 21189 TOTAL 259870 287842 317361 347552 378423 409129 439820 470348 500512 529967 BIRTH RATE 30.0 28.2 26.2 24.4 22.7 21.3 20.1 18.9 17.8 DEATH RATE 8.8 8.2 7.4 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.12 2.00 1.86 1.73 1.57 1.45 1.34 1.23 1.13 NET MIGRATION RATE -.8 -.5 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.04 1.95 1.81 1.70 1.55 1.44 1.33 1.23 1.13 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.879 3.571 3.282 3.028 2.798 2.633 2.505 2.407 2.323 NRR 1.697 1.573 1.462 1.366 1.270 1.202 1.155 1.120 1.092 etO) - BOTH SEXES 64.58 65.77 67.13 68.53 69.58 70.71 71.91 73.20 74.57 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 54.84 55.44 56.19 57.00 57.75 58.55 59.40 60.31 61.28 IIR - BOTH SEXES 58.1 52.8 4.6 40.3 36.3 32.2 28.1 23.8 19.3 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0791 .0714 .0626 .0537 .0487 .0434 .0380 .0324 .0264 DEP. RATIO 74.5 71.6 68.7 64.7 60.9 57.0 54.4 53.0 52.4 52.2 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 37 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods LOWER-MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 519741 695012 998962 1249300 1395432 1461784 1493914 1509759 MALES 0-4 37112 41963 45414 45245 45219 45226 45226 45218 5-9 33130 40152 44604 45077 45166 45183 45191 45185 10-14 30079 38024 437m 45039 45136 45159 45183 45178 15-19 27356 35744 42697 45010 45021 45104 45150 45152 20-24 23716 32099 41690 44888 44849 44991 45061 45075 25-29 20836 28827 40174 44366 44727 44833 44926 44953 30-34 17612 25912 38486 43526 44440 44670 44781 44824 35-39 14158 22276 36148 42473 44207 44479 44619 44690 40-44 11346 19450 33603 41124 43927 44164 44395 44506 45-49 10452 16217 29774 39791 43488 43747 44071 44226 50-54 9210 12697 26154 3m2 42411 43172 43532 43746 55-59 7907 9739 22617 35155 40659 42124 42726 43019 60-64 6020 8379 18231 31585 38281 40737 41571 41979 65-69 4132 6635 14380 27356 35062 38729 39811 40418 70-74 3348 4808 10159 21626 31060 35709 37190 38040 75+ 3458 4538 10543 30347 55718 72181 81745 8b388 TOTAL 259871 347460 498450 620338 689371 720208 735178 742597 FEMALES 0-4 35773 40447 43608 43334 43262 43229 43220 43213 5-9 31957 38795 42918 43218 43241 43208 43198 43191 10-14 29011 36798 42188 43224 43234 43200 43193 43189 15-19 26392 34604 41248 43268 43168 43182 43183 43184 20-24 23383 31124 40434 43280 43099 43156 43162 43170 25-29 20706 28025 39136 42964 43121 43126 43142 43149 30-34 17676 25265 37638 42318 42975 43085 43107 43120 35-39 14187 22256 35495 41461 42889 43015 43055 43080 4-44 11521 19653 33116 40353 42803 42864 42977 43022 45-49 10826 16671 29537 39318 42628 42674 42866 42935 50-54 9549 13201 26273 37708 42018 42492 42695 42805 55-59 8411 10468 23224 35759 40942 42039 42442 42605 b0-64 6645 9457 19792 33014 39477 41504 42071 42315 65-69 4806 7795 16549 29m 37490 40747 41478 418e8 70-74 4090 6084 12756 25066 35073 39490 40564 41202 75n 4935 6910 16600 44902 80639 104565 118383 125095 TOTAL 259870 347552 500512 628962 706060 741575 758736 767162 BIRTH RATE 28.0 21.3 16.0 13.4 12.4 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 8.2 6.8 7.1 9.0 10.6 11.1 11.4 MET MIGRATION RATE -.6 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.94 1.45 .89 .44 .19 .09 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.553 2.653 2.201 2.072 2.063 2.057 2.056 eO) - BOTH SEXES 65.91 70.95 76.56 80.50 82.75 84.60 85.34 IMR - BOTH SEXES 52.4 32.1 14.5 6.3 3.9 2.4 2.2 30 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS UPPER-MI YDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 454297 502963 554634 607227 660129 714688 772052 830744 889388 947198 MALES 0-4 30182 32905 34620 35248 35747 37392 39681 41422 42558 43411 5-9 27717 29689 32445 34228 34929 35477 37167 39491 41274 42454 10-14 26102 27533 29518 32288 34090 34812 35381 37083 39419 41218 15-19 23614 25893 27335 29341 32121 33937 34680 35261 36972 39318 20-24 21681 23287 25581 27065 29096 31888 33730 34485 35080 36800 25-29 19017 21294 22932 25271 26791 28843 31655 33503 34271 34880 30-34 16393 18663 20960 22643 25008 26549 28625 31432 33287 34069 35-39 13232 16068 18345 20671 22382 24756 26317 28394 31199 33063 40-44 10707 12920 15738 18030 20366 22085 24462 26026 28103 30900 45-49 9363 10374 12559 15356 17642 19961 21683 24048 25615 27690 50-54 8067 8953 9946 12093 14837 17084 19372 21087 23433 25005 55-59 6755 7543 8398 9373 11446 14092 16283 18525 20235 22560 60-64 5338 6105 6846 7668 8601 10563 13074 15186 17368 19072 65-69 3617 4577 5266 5960 6730 7600 9409 11731 13728 15815 70-74 2928 2849 3635 4242 4871 5558 6337 7932 9992 11815 75+ 3124 3428 3567 4240 5177 6219 7374 8679 10727 13665 TOTAL 227837 252080 277691 303719 329834 356815 385229 414287 443262 471735 FEMALES 0-4 29042 31751 33362 33924 34357 35882 38016 39610 40619 41351 5-9 26748 28623 31366 33041 33669 34143 35706 37867 39494 40536 10-14 25251 26598 2849 31249 32943 33588 34079 35651 37820 39459 15-19 22850 25099 26466 28377 31147 32855 33518 34018 35599 37m7 20-24 21037 22626 24906 26304 28239 31026 32758 33431 33944 35536 25-29 18539 20779 22407 24720 26150 28108 30915 32656 33341 33868 30-34 15851 18302 20572 22233 24571 26019 27996 30802 32552 33251 35-39 12958 15636 s8108 20398 22078 24426 25889 27869 30676 32435 40-44 10697 12760 15444 17924 20223 21908 24258 25727 27710 30516 45-49 9501 10494 12554 15229 17708 19999 21686 24032 25506 27493 50-54 8361 9255 10254 12301 14958 17416 19693 21377 23718 25199 55-59 7218 8050 8948 9950 11975 14588 17018 19275 20959 23294 60-64 6006 6808 7639 8541 9544 11520 14075 16468 18704 20394 65-69 4191 5454 6247 7080 7987 8964 10873 13350 15699 17915 70-74 3659 3552 4707 5487 6317 7184 8124 9938 12306 14599 75+ 4550 5097 5473 6751 8428 10246 12219 14385 17481 21839 TOTAL 226459 250884 276943 303508 330295 357873 386823 416457 446127 475464 BIRTH RATE 29.0 27.3 25.1 23.1 22.2 21.6 20.7 19.7 18.7 DEATH RATE 8.0 7.3 6.7 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.10 2.00 1.85 1.69 1.60 1.55 1.47 1.37 1.26 NET NIGRATION RATE -.6 -.5 -.3 -.2 -.1 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.04 1.96 1.81 1.67 1.59 1.54 1.47 1.36 1.26 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.670 3.409 3.140 2.912 2.798 2.742 2.677 2.612 2.547 NRR 1.631 1.534 1.430 1.339 1.295 1.286 1.270 1.245 1.223 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 66.49 67.94 69.64 71.20 72.23 73.30 74.43 75.63 76.89 etIS) - BOTH SEXES 56.57 57.44 58.55 59.55 60.16 60.80 61.47 62.16 62.88 INR - BOTH SEXES 60.0 53.2 46.0 39.2 33.9 28.2 22.2 16.0 9.5 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0753 .0660 .0565 .0477 .0414 .0346 .0274 .0199 .0121 DEP. RATIO 70.0 67.1 65.1 62.6 59.1 56.2 55.1 55.7 56.5 57.0 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 39 Sumary ProjectIon for 25-Year Periods UPPER-MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 454297 607227 889388 1155153 1332825 1432746 1471841 1484873 MALES 0-4 30182 35248 42558 44973 44636 44394 44352 44356 5-9 27717 34228 41274 44825 44409 44267 44304 44329 10-14 26102 32288 39419 44379 43980 44225 44322 44339 15-19 23614 29341 36972 43905 43923 44301 44347 44324 20-24 21681 27065 35080 43060 44450 44395 44289 44239 25-29 19017 25271 34271 41974 44575 44315 44119 44095 30-34 16393 22643 33287 40579 44300 43981 43897 43958 35-39 13232 20671 31199 38564 43682 43409 43729 43859 40-44 10707 18030 28103 35947 42995 43171 43649 43741 45-49 9363 15356 25615 33834 41898 43465 43546 43503 50-54 8067 12093 23433 32550 40370 43179 43112 43008 55-59 6755 9373 20235 30785 38246 42218 42191 42243 60-64 5338 7668 17368 27657 35223 40596 40755 41250 65-69 3617 5960 13728 23325 31260 38413 39182 39897 70-74 98 4242 9992 19108 27173 35114 37338 37820 75+ 3124 4240 10727 28687 50265 69832 83231 86751 TOTAL 227837 303719 643262 574151 661386 709275 726361 731713 FEMALES 0-4 29042 33924 40619 42849 42543 42323 42285 42290 5-9 26748 33041 39494 42710 42333 42209 42249 42274 10-14 25251 31249 37820 42289 41924 42170 42269 42287 15-19 22850 28377 35599 41872 41890 42260 42313 42291 20-24 21037 26304 33944 41165 42462 42411 42317 42267 25-29 18539 24720 33341 40347 42687 42433 42247 42220 30-34 15851 22233 32552 39211 42519 42206 42123 42179 35-39 12958 20398 30676 37464 42024 41747 42045 42168 40-64 10697 17924 27710 35144 41508 41641 42082 42168 45-49 9501 15229 25506 33344 40663 42107 42160 42114 50-54 8361 12301 23718 32484 39622 42158 42059 41945 55-59 7218 9950 20959 31314 38164 41730 41649 41674 60-64 6006 8541 18704 28960 35989 40873 40938 41385 65-69 4191 7080 15699 25450 33098 39826 40453 41107 70-74 3659 547 12306 22342 30389 38146 40264 40662 75+ 4550 6751 17481 64056 73625 99229 118025 124128 TOTAL 226459 303508 446127 581001 671439 723471 745479 753159 BIRTH RATE 27.0 21.3 17.0 13.9 12.5 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.3 6.1 6.7 8.2 9.7 10.9 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.5 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .O GROWTH RATE 1.93 1.53 1.05 .57 .29 .11 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.386 2.739 2.393 2.092 2.062 2.059 2.058 elO) - BOTH SEXES 68.13 73.53 78.55 81.77 83.60 85.05 85.63 INR - BOTH SEXES 52.9 27.5 7.3 3.6 2.8 2.2 2.1 40 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS HIGH-INCOME ECONOMIES Population Projectfon (thousands) AGE GROUP 1965 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 795905 821755 847354 869349 888513 903880 916367 927101 935661 941463 MALES 0-4 2768 27851 28575 27857 27412 27172 27296 27580 27774 27860 5-9 2739 27971 28073 28720 27954 27471 27198 27304 27572 27748 10-14 30301 28152 28141 28188 2879 28006 27500 27216 27310 27566 15-19 32324 30481 28294 28229 28243 28825 28012 27496 27202 27286 20-24 33n4 32670 30748 28462 28329 28287 28820 27986 27448 27132 25-29 32390 34193 33024 30965 28596 28385 28278 28774 27908 27340 30-34 31032 32774 34464 33176 31050 2862w 28362 28227 28694 27805 35-39 29909 31244 32907 34504 33173 31014 28564 28281 28128 28576 40-44 24900 29906 31194 32796 34359 33013 30849 28407 28116 27956 45-49 22822 24679 29615 30879 32471 34016 32689 30559 28148 27868 50-54 21238 22305 24159 29016 30291 31869 33408 32133 30065 27714 55-59 20212 20380 21489 23348 28122 29394 30969 32519 31332 29365 60-64 17564 18889 19191 20360 22242 26863 28150 29743 31330 30281 65-69 12825 15756 17148 17609 18852 20693 25115 26435 28069 29723 70-74 11305 10762 13452 14905 15545 16781 18568 22717 24091 25789 75+ 14147 15710 16652 19631 23139 26035 28908 32420 38433 43943 TOTAL 390320 403723 417124 428645 438577 446451 452686 457798 461620 463951 FEMALES 0-4 26268 26481 27154 26463 26034 25802 25915 26181 26360 26437 5-9 26493 26573 26723 27317 26575 26105 25840 25934 26181 26342 10-14 28714 26722 26757 26849 27406 26635 26142 25863 25944 26178 15-19 30754 28963 26919 26894 26945 27468 26671 26163 25869 25935 20-24 32589 31222 29331 27180 27076 27065 27535 26709 26172 25849 25-29 31502 33134 31648 29631 27390 27212 27138 27572 26712 26141 30-34 30379 31892 33429 31850 29768 27475 27250 47151 27558 26674 35-39 29429 30589 32041 33514 31899 29787 27471 27232 27117 27510 40-44 24707 29455 30586 32006 33459 31836 29721 27409 27166 27048 45-49 22884 24592 29306 30430 31848 33295 31686 29590 27294 27058 50-54 21677 22628 24336 29019 30155 31572 33022 31444 29381 27115 55-59 21519 21267 22239 23959 28612 29755 31180 32644 31115 29104 60-64 20797 20872 20697 21709 23454 28053 29217 30664 32157 30704 65-69 16188 19782 19974 19919 20998 22746 27279 28484 29975 31525 70-74 15781 14837 18327 18695 18816 19933 21695 26144 27422 28994 75+ 25905 29023 30761 35269 39502 42691 45917 50121 57617 64897 TOTAL 405585 418032 430230 440704 449935 457430 463681 469303 474041 477512 BIRTH RATE 13.5 13.4 12.7 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.5 8.9 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. .4 .47 .42 .37 .30 .25 .21 .17 .12 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.8 1.4 1.0 .7 .5 .3 .2 .1 .0 GROWTH RATE .64 .61 .51 .44 .34 .27 .23 .18 .12 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.728 1.786 1.797 1.846 1.896 1.942 1.982 2.019 2.054 NRR .837 .855 .860 .886 .913 .937 .957 .975 .993 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 76.14 77.22 78.27 79.26 79.88 80.51 81.17 81.85 82.56 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 62.14 63.10 64.06 64.97 65.52 66.09 66.68 67.30 67.93 INR - BOTH SEXES 9.2 7.9 6.8 6.0 5.4 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0116 .0101 .0088 .0078 .0071 .0064 .0057 .0050 .0044 DEP. RATIO 49.5 48.8 49.8 50.4 51.2 52.2 55.6 59.7 64.5 69.8 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 41 S_mmry Projection for 25-Year Perlod HIGH-INCOME ECONOMIES AG GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 207S 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL eFF 795905 869349 935661 930089 91640s 920866 926274 929183 NALES 0-4 27688 27857 2M4 27633 27612 27625 27634 27634 5-9 27939 28720 27572 27516 27584 27614 27619 27616 10-14 30301 28188 27310 27501 27614 27626 27618 27612 15-19 32324 28229 27202 27649 27648 27615 27598 27594 20-24 33724 28462 27448 27747 27602 27550 27544 27549 25-29 32390 30965 27908 27563 27451 27447 27470 27483 30-34 31032 33176 28694 27291 27272 27361 27405 27416 35-39 29909 34504 28128 26932 27173 27315 27346 2734 40-44 24900 32796 28116 26701 27215 2n56 27251 27247 45-49 22822 30879 28148 26792 27179 2709 27078 27088 50-54 21238 29016 30065 26966 26763 26734 26778 26823 55-59 20212 23348 31332 27236 26102 26206 26364 26440 60-64 17564 20360 31330 25988 25172 25576 25817 25897 65-69 12825 17609 28069 24916 24072 24790 24986 25057 70-74 11305 14905 24091 23323 22781 23478 23634 23734 75+ 14147 19631 38433 55373 52375 53002 54735 55769 TOTAL 390320 42864s 41620 457128 451615 454289 456878 458309 FEMALES 0-4 26268 26463 26360 26225 26204 26216 26224 26225 5-9 26493 27317 26181 26120 26184 26211 26216 26213 10-14 28714 26849 25944 26107 26215 26225 26217 26212 15-19 30754 26894 25869 26261 26260 26227 26210 26207 20-24 3259 -27180 26172 26395 26256 26202 26194 26199 25-29 31502 29631 26712 26293 26174 26162 26180 26190 30-34 30379 31850 27558 26101 26062 26139 26174 26182 35-39 29429 33514 27117 25828 26023 26149 26171 26168 40-44 24707 32006 27166 25705 26140 26166 26150 26140 45-49 22884 30430 27294 25938 26224 26123 26093 26096 50-54 21677 29019 29381 26359 26040 25977 26000 26033 55-59 21519 23959 31115 27015 25725 25769 25895 25954 60-64 20797 21709 32157 26331 25280 25593 25792 25847 65-69 16188 19919 2"975 26004 24902 25504 25639 25673 70-74 15781 18695 27422 25522 24699 25247 25315 25362 75h 25905 35269 57617 80757 76404 76665 78928 80175 TOTAL 405585 440704 474041 4961 46794 466577 469396 470874 BIRTH RATE 13.2 11.8 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 8.7 9.3 11.8 12.3 11.6 11.5 11.5 HET NIGRATION RATE 1.4 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GRUTH RATE .59 .29 *.2 -.06 .02 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.773 1.935 2.064 2.064 2.063 2.062 2.062 o(O) - BOTH SEXES 77.23 80.55 83.26 84.65 85.41 85.97 86.20 1N - BOTH SEXES 8.0 4.8 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 42 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS NONREPORTING NONMEMBER ECONOMIES Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 314169 328200 341073 354230 367424 379976 392064 403338 414129 424325 MALES 0-4 14724 15429 14397 13973 14213 14590 14674 14534 14382 14331 5-9 13567 14570 15303 14337 13922 14168 14550 14639 14505 14358 10-14 13231 13468 14489 15264 14305 13895 14144 14529 14623 14493 15-19 12834 13100 13361 14428 15208 14257 13854 14107 14496 14595 20-24 11807 12600 12913 13260 14334 15117 14180 13786 14046 14441 25-29 13452 11517 12367 12792 13155 14229 15015 14093 13710 13976 30-34 12750 13135 11297 12244 12687 13054 14128 14918 14012 13640 35-39 11186 12436 12882 11163 12126 12574 12947 14023 14821 13932 40-44 7609 10866 12152 12674 11015 11978 12433 12814 13894 14701 45-49 7788 7329 10536 11860 12414 10808 11772 12237 12631 13717 50-54 8697 7404 7010 10139 11470 12035 10506 11471 11952 12366 55-59 7101 8078 6925 6601 9607 10912 11496 10081 11051 11560 60-64 6153 6360 7293 6305 6065 8881 10156 10771 9513 10496 65-69 3013 5211 5443 6306 5524 5373 7940 9171 9822 8767 70-74 2076 2343 4094 4344 5118 4560 4509 6754 7915 8597 75+ 2995 2735 2811 4175 5242 6403 6764 6983 9012 11470 TOTAL 148983 156581 163272 169864 176405 182835 189068 194912 200384 205439 FEMALES 0-4 14359 14803 13800 13383 13601 13959 14036 13898 13748 13696 5-9 13123 14229 14700 13760 13349 13572 13934 14015 13882 13737 10-14 12840 13044 14168 14681 13744 13336 13561 13925 14009 13879 15-19 12250 12747 12975 14147 14662 13728 13323 13551 13917 14003 20-24 11619 12091 12629 12948 14121 14638 13708 13306 13535 13903 25-29 13288 11431 11953 12598 12920 14093 14611 13684 13285 13516 30-34 12681 13118 11313 11918 12566 12889 14062 14581 13659 13262 35-39 11327 12533 13005 11269 11879 12527 12853 14025 14546 13629 40-44 7842 11191 12419 12932 11215 11825 12475 12803 13975 14499 45-49 8507 7723 11062 12313 12837 11137 11749 12401 12734 13907 50-54 9856 8335 759' 10917 12174 12700 11025 11639 12293 12633 55-59 8792 9568 8135 7444 10731 11980 12510 10871 11490 12150 60-64 9338 8394 9215 7885 7253 10475 11716 12256 10670 11299 65-69 6085 8654 7894 8764 7565 6983 10118 11353 11914 10406 70-74 4m 5334 7786 7242 8166 7090 6584 9596 10829 11427 75+ 8505 8425 9150 12164 14235 16208 16732 16521 19259 22941 TOTAL 165186 171620 177801 184366 191019 197141 202996 208425 213745 218886 BIRTH RATE 19.4 17.3 16.0 15.7 15.5 15.1 14.4 13.9 13.5 DEATH RATE 9.6 8.9 8.4 8.3 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. .97 .84 .76 .73 .67 .63 .57 .53 .49 NET NIGRATION RATE -1.0 -.7 -.0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 GROWJTH RATE .87 .77 .76 .73 .67 .63 .57 .53 .49 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.557 2.371 2.252 2.199 2.154 2.105 2.077 2.069 2.066 NRR 1.217 1.124 1.070 1.049 1.032 1.011 1.000 .999 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 70.55 72.28 73.89 75.41 76.26 77.14 78.08 79.06 80.09 a1S) - BOTH SEXES 57.64 59.13 60.51 61.81 62.50 63.23 63.99 64.80 65.65 1NR - BOTH SEXES 23.6 20.3 17.0 14.1 12.2 10.3 8.4 6.6 4.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0286 .0246 .0207 .0173 .0151 .0128 .0107 .0085 .0063 DEP. RATIO 53.3 56.3 57.1 56.9 54.1 52.1 54.0 56.7 59.1 59.4 WORLD, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, AND INCOME GROUPS 43 SuTmery Projection for 25-Year Periods NONREPORTING NONMEMBER ECONOMIES AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 314169 354230 414129 452441 470459 478681 483705 486150 MALES 0-4 14724 13973 14382 14478 14478 14466 14462 14461 5-9 13567 14337 14505 14500 14463 14449 14449 14451 10-14 13231 15264 14623 14466 14436 14439 14447 14449 15.19 12834 14428 14496 14357 14400 14429 14441 14442 20-24 11807 13260 14046 14240 14373 14412 14419 14419 25-29 13452 12792 13710 14221 14362 14380 14379 14380 30-34 12750 12244 14012 14297 14344 14331 14331 14338 35-39 11186 11163 14821 14348 14257 14258 14281 14299 40-44 7609 12674 13894 14142 14080 14166 14223 14248 45-49 7788 11860 12631 13605 13883 14-70 14145 14168 50-54 8697 10139 11952 13098 13715 13934 14002 14024 55-59 7101 6601 11051 13073 13532 13703 13766 13802 60-64 6153 6305 9513 13318 13195 13300 13414 13488 65-69 3013 6306 9822 11767 12439 12655 12896 13024 70-74 2076 4344 7915 9723 11133 11747 12143 12318 75+ 2995 4175 9012 16671 27;00 25819 27652 28547 TOTAL 148983 169864 200384 220304 229887 234558 237451 238858 FEMALES 0-4 14359 13383 13748 13820 13813 13798 13793 13792 5-9 13123 13760 13882 13850 13803 13786 13784 13785 10-14 12840 14681 14009 13828 13780 13778 13783 13785 15-19 12250 14147 13917 13742 13754 13777 13785 13785 20-24 11619 12948 13535 13669 13755 13783 13784 13782 25-29 13288 12598 13285 13705 13789 13788 13778 13775 30-34 12681 11918 13659 13828 13814 1377e 13764 13766 35-39 11327 11269 14546 13932 13774 13740 13747 13756 40-44 7842 12932 13975 13808 13666 13698 13733 13746 45-49 8507 12313 12734 13387 13563 13676 13721 13730 50-54 9856 10917 12293 13070 13547 13671 13696 13697 55-59 8792 7444 11490 13329 13592 13638 13638 13643 60-64 9338 7885 10670 14027 13581 13517 13537 13569 65-69 6085 8764 11914 13242 13296 13290 13400 13470 70-74 4775 7242 10829 11723 12629 12992 13219 13319 75+ 8505 12164 19259 29178 36416 39413 41090 41893 TOTAL 165186 184366 213745 232137 240572 244123 246254 247293 BIRTH RATE 17.5 14.9 13.0 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.0 8.6 9.5 10.7 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -.6 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .80 .62 .35 .16 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.389 2.120 2.064 2.060 2.058 2.057 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 72.29 77.25 81.24 83.48 84.71 85.63 85.99 IMR - BOTH SEXES 20.4 10.3 4.0 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA REGION 46 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMEN'lS EUROPE AN CENTRAL ASIA Populatfon ProJection (thousands) AGE GRWOP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 820370 846778 870612 893560 915670 935140 952976 969671 985481 1000264 MALES 0-4 32836 33626 32819 32004 31909 31917 31987 32032 32022 32043 5-9 32242 32709 33441 32692 31892 31810 31834 31917 31974 31976 10-14 32506 32192 32611 33374 32631 31839 31766 31797 31888 31953 15-19 33275 32398 32044 32501 33270 32539 31760 31697 31737 31837 20-24 32464 33084 32144 31857 32322 33099 32389 31625 31574 31626 25-29 33159 32240 32768 31919 31643 32114 32903 32212 31465 31427 30-34 31431 32877 31922 32528 31697 31433 31917 32715 32046 31318 35-39 28922 31083 32494 31647 32272 31458 31212 31710 32523 31879 40-44 22631 28478 30605 32086 31307 31943 31155 30929 31445 32277 45-49 22993 22124 27853 30015 31539 30824 31481 30730 30538 31082 50-54 23266 22171 21398 27007 29183 30723 30100 30786 3009 29951 55-59 20711 21947 21041 20408 25839 27987 29558 29071 29809 m207 60-64 17817 18949 20206 19A* 19088 24240 26361 27985 27696 28518 65-69 10297 15543 16699 17963 17599 17333 22118 24205 25898 25867 70-74 9701 8367 12747 13905 15168 15098 15052 19358 21387 23148 75+ 12472 13081 12678 15890 19188 22223 24182 25553 30127 35274 TOTAL 396723 410868 423470 435337 446548 456579 465774 474323 482221 489385 FEMALES 0-4 31620 32074 31272 30474 30365 30368 30429 30464 304"4 30454 5-9 30881 31536 31931 31182 30393 30295 30311 30382 30427 30418 10-14 31128 30868 31472 31896 31147 30363 30272 30293 30369 30419 15-19 31597 31110 30793 31430 31852 31109 30333 30247 30272 30354 20-24 31417 31584 30989 30733 31365 31792 31060 30291 30210 30242 25-29 32213 31399 31440 30917 30656 31291 31728 31003 30241 30167 30-34 30899 32152 31252 31352 30829 30574 31217 31659 30942 30188 35-39 28642 30784 31982 31137 31242 30727 30482 31131 31580 30874 40-44 22677 28459 30572 31807 30984 31097 30595 30361 31019 31477 45-49 23774 22443 28178 30313 31568 30768 30896 30410 30192 30862 50-54 24620 23381 22111 27812 2m9 31223 30457 30604 30142 29947 55-59 23374 23990 22859 21679 27330 29470 30751 30035 30213 29787 60-64 23370 22448 23158 22172 21112 26666 28806 30119 29482 29711 65-69 15584 21872 21201 22040 21253 20312 25740 27892 29266 28751 70-74 15718 13915 19836 19480 20496 19893 19135 24391 26575 28055 75+ 26134 27895 28095 33797 38572 42613 44991 46066 51883 59172 TOTAL 423647 435910 447142 458224 469123 478561 487202 495348 503260 510879 BIRTH RATE 16.2 15.3 14.4 14.0 13.7 13.4 13.1 12.9 12.7 DEATH RATE 10.1 9.6 9.2 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 RATE OF MAT. INC. .61 .57 .52 .49 .42 .38 .35 .32 .30 NET MIGRATION RATE .2 -.1 .0 -.0 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .63 .56 .52 .49 .42 .38 .35 .32 .30 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.150 2.094 2.044 2.037 2.028 2.025 2.034 2.049 2.064 ORR 1.019 .983 .967 .970 .970 .972 .977 .986 .996 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 72.65 73.93 75.20 76.43 77.19 77.98 78.82 79.71 80.64 eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 59.51 60.61 61.66 62.70 63.33 63.98 64.67 65.39 66.16 INR - BOTH SEXES 23.1 19.9 16.7 13.8 11.9 10.0 8.2 6.3 4.4 qCS) - BOTH SEXES .0288 .0248 .0208 .0172 .0149 .0127 .0105 .0082 .0060 DEP. RATIO 52.1 53.1 53.9 54.4 53.9 53.0 54.9 57.6 60.7 63.2 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENS 47 Suanry Projection for 25-Year Periods EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M F 820370 893560 985481 1029899 1045136 1058819 1068883 1073926 MALES 0-4 32836 32004 32022 32013 32004 32002 32003 32003 5-9 32242 32692 31974 31954 31973 31979 31981 31980 10-14 32506 33374 31888 31920 31971 31977 31978 31976 15-19 33275 32501 31737 31919 31958 31959 31959 31958 20-24 32464 31857 31574 31862 31892 31896 31900 31905 25-29 33159 31919 31465 31698 31769 31795 31813 31824 30-34 31431 32528 32046 31555 31628 31691 31724 31740 35-39 28922 31647 32523 31335 31481 31591 31636 31655 40-44 22631 32086 31445 31017 31337 31458 31514 31537 45-49 22993 30015 30538 30654 31107 31245 31319 31353 50-54 23266 27007 30093 30164 30632 30858 30976 31038 55-59 20711 20408 29809 30057 29959 30267 30470 30568 60-64 17817 19541 27696 29467 28955 29445 29761 29902 65-69 10297 17963 25898 27013 27483 28279 28697 28891 70-74 9701 13905 21387 24102 25377 26485 27051 27326 75+ 12472 15890 30127 4784 5414 58368 61811 63595 TOTAL 396723 435337 482221 504576 513669 521296 526593 529251 FEMALES 0-4 31620 30474 30444 30408 30391 30386 30386 30385 5-9 30881 31182 30427 30367 30370 30372 30373 30371 10-14 31128 31896 30369 30346 30372 30374 30373 30370 15-19 31597 31430 30272 30374 30378 30373 30368 30367 20-24 31417 30733 30210 30390 30368 30360 30356 30358 25-29 32213 30917 30241 30342 30338 30337 30341 30346 30-34 30899 31352 30942 30304 30284 30309 30324 30331 35-39 28642 31137 31580 30197 30226 30284 30305 30312 40-44 22677 31807 31019 30032 30204 30252 30275 30283 45-49 23774 30313 30192 29873 30150 30191 30222 30235 50-54 24620 27812 30142 29741 29986 30076 30130 30160 55-59 23374 21679 30213 30179 29774 29893 30001 30054 60-64 23370 22172 29482 30428 29419 29651 29831 29908 65-69 15584 22040 29266 29352 28892 29356 29585 29690 70-74 15718 19480 26575 2m8 28138 28856 29170 29326 75+ 26134 33797 51883 75261 82177 86452 90250 92179 TOTAL 423647 458224 503260 525324 531466 537523 542290 544676 BIRTH RATE 15.3 13.4 12.4 12.1 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.6 9.5 10.6 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .57 .39 .18 .06 .05 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.098 2.034 2.068 2.065 2.063 2.062 2.061 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 73.95 78.06 81.65 83.67 84.81 85.67 86.02 IMR - BOTH SEXES 20.0 10.0 3.8 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 48 BANK REGION ANND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA COUNTRY DEPT. I Populatlon Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 92795 99175 105646 111973 117888 123129 128215 133362 138403 143123 MALES 0-4 4845 5303 5375 5325 5161 4961 5011 5155 5210 5177 5-9 4753 4771 5237 5324 5286 5131 4939 4993 5141 5201 10-14 4803 4725 4748 5218 5309 5274 5121 4931 4986 5136 15-19 4634 4768 4697 4725 5198 5291 5259 S108 4919 4975 20-24 3982 4576 4721 4661 4697 5170 5266 5235 5086 4899 25-29 3778 3917 4519 4677 4626 4666 5141 5237 5207 5059 30-34 3295 3713 3863 4473 4639 4593 4637 5110 5207 5179 35-39 2808 3233 3657 3817 4428 4598 4557 4603 5075 5176 40-44 2334 2746 3173 3599 3766 4374 4546 4509 4559 5031 45-49 2368 2267 2676 3101 3526 3695 4298 4473 4442 4497 50-54 2366 2272 2182 2583 3002 3420 3592 4185 4364 4343 55-59 2070 2224 2143 2065 2455 2860 3270 3445 4024 4209 60-64 1572 1884 2033 1967 1907 2279 2667 3063 3243 3804 65-69 899 1361 1641 1783 1739 1700 2045 2409 2785 2968 70-74 940 717 1097 1333 1465 l445 1430 1740 2069 2415 75+ 990 1111 1026 1255 1598 1901 2070 2175 2508 3022 TOTAL 46438 49590 52789 55907 58802 61359 63848 66369 68826 71091 FEMALES 0-4 4738 5071 5138 5085 4923 4729 47M 4908 4958 4923 5-9 4599 4672 5014 5094 5052 4899 4711 4760 4898 4951 10-14 4617 4577 4654 5000 5083 5044 4893 4707 4756 4895 15-19 4392 4592 4557 4639 4988 5074 5037 4887 4701 4751 20-24 3859 4352 4559 4535 4622 4975 5064 5028 4878 4694 25-29 3546 3812 4314 4532 4515 4607 4962 5052 5017 4869 30-34 3210 3504 3778 4287 4511 4498 4593 4948 5039 5005 35-39 2728 3172 3471 3751 4263 4489 4479 4575 4930 5023 40-44 2333 2692 3137 3440 3723 4234 4462 4454 4551 4907 45-49 2421 2295 2654 3098 3402 3685 4194 4423 4418 4518 50-54 2314 2367 2248 2605 3046 3349 3632 4138 4368 4368 55-59 2138 2238 2295 2186 2539 2974 3276 3559 4060 4294 60-64 1700 2030 2133 2196 2101 2448 2874 3174 3458 3956 65-69 1lls 1560 1875 1983 2055 1978 2316 2732 3032 3318 70-74 1167 964 1362 1652 1768 1849 1797 2124 2525 2826 75+ 1480 1690 1669 1986 2494 2939 3304 3527 3987 4733 TOTAL 46357 49586 52857 56067 59086 61770 64367 66993 69577 72031 BIRTH RATE 23.0 21.7 20.0 18.2 16.6 16.0 15.7 15.2 14.5 DEATH RATE 9.1 8.6 8.1 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.39 1.31 1.19 1.04 .88 .81 .79 .74 .67 NET NIGRATION RATE -.6 -.4 -.2 -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.33 1.26 1.16 1.03 .87 .81 .79 .74 .67 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.977 2.7M 2.551 2.349 2.165 2.100 2.094 2.087 2.078 NRR 1.362 1.267 1.173 1.090 1.012 .990 .993 .996 .999 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 68.10 69.33 70.72 72.17 73.22 74.32 75.46 76.67 77.93 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 57.58 58.39 59.18 60.09 60.74 61.42 62.13 62.87 63.65 INR - BOTH SEXES 52.3 46.3 38.4 31.3 26.1 21.2 16.3 11.2 6.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0673 .0588 .0482 .0389 .0325 .0265 .0205 .0143 .0080 DEP. RATIO 60.4 58.3 58.1 57.9 55.2 51.5 49.4 49.5 51.2 53.0 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 49 Summary Projectto, EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA COUNTRY DEPT. I AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 92795 111973 138403 156802 164585 168025 170249 171365 MALES 0-4 4845 5325 5210 5134 5116 5115 5118 5118 5-9 4753 5324 5141 5092 5104 5113 5116 5115 10-14 4803 5218 4986 5068 5109 5117 5116 5115 15-19 4634 4725 4919 5092 5123 5119 5113 5111 20-24 3982 4661 5086 5141 5123 5106 5101 5102 25-29 3778 4677 5207 5148 5091 5080 5084 5088 30-34 3295 4473 5207 5062 5035 5056 5071 5076 35-39 2808 3817 5075 4887 4992 5044 5061 5063 40-44 2334 3599 4559 4793 4990 5038 5045 5044 45-49 2368 3101 4442 4918 5008 5013 5010 5011 50-54 2366 2583 4364 4962 4959 4936 4945 4958 55-59 2070 2065 4024 4838 4782 4805 4854 4882 60-64 1572 1967 3243 4530 4481 4649 4741 4777 65-69 899 1783 2785 3822 4196 4474 4581 4616 70-74 940 1333 2069 3366 3991 4220 4318 4358 75, 990 1255 2508 5689 8148 9041 9700 10053 TOTAL 46438 55907 68826 77543 81249 82928 83972 84487 FEMALES 0-4 4738 5085 4958 4880 46862 4862 4864 4864 5-9 4599 5094 4898 4842 4851 4860 4863 4863 10-14 4617 5000 4756 4820 4857 4865 4864 4862 15-19 4392 4639 4701 4847 4873 4869 4863 4861 20-24 3859 4535 4878 4906 4882 4864 4858 4859 25-29 3546 4532 5017 4932 4865 4851 4853 4857 30-34 3210 4287 5039 4868 4824 4839 4851 4855 35-39 2728 3751 4930 4717 4794 4839 4852 4853 40-44 2333 3440 4551 4650 4811 4848 4850 4848 45-49 2421 3098 4418 4803 4854 446 4838 4837 50-54 2314 2605 4368 4901 4854 4811 4812 4821 55-59 2138 2186 4060 4864 4753 4745 4781 4803 60-64 1700 2196 3458 4675 4552 4679 4754 4781 65-69 1115 1983 3032 4201 4410 4640 4722 4745 70-74 1167 1652 2525 3898 4423 4590 4653 4678 75+ 1480 1986 3987 8455 11871 13091 13998 14491 TOTAL 46357 56067 69577 79259 83336 85098 86277 86878 BIRTH RATE 21.5 16.3 13.5 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 8.6 7.8 8.6 10.5 11.2 11.3 11.5 MET MIGRATION RATE -.4 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.25 .85 .50 .19 .08 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.758 2.155 2.075 2.067 2.064 2.062 2.061 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 69.44 74.4 79.43 82.39 84.04 85.28 85.77 INR BOTH SEXES 45.7 21.3 5.o 3.2 2.6 2.2 2.0 50 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENIS EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASI COUNTRY DE. II Poputeton Projxctlon (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 82889 84788 86334 88069 90036 91934 93697 95336 96910 98467 MALES 0-4 3556 3287 3202 3216 3293 3325 3290 3236 3216 3239 5-9 3687 3527 3251 3175 3196 3277 3313 3281 3229 3211 10-14 3354 3667 3501 3233 3161 3186 3270 3307 3277 3227 15-19 3051 3328 3634 3476 3214 3147 3174 3260 3300 3271 20-24 3154 3009 3274 3590 3442 3189 3126 3157 3245 3287 25-29 3520 3099 2943 3222 3546 3408 3162 3105 3138 3229 30-34 3591 3461 3035 2896 3182 3512 3380 3140 3086 3122 35-39 3005 3528 3395 2987 2858 3148 3480 3354 3119 3069 40-44 2219 2941 3453 3333 2941 2820 3111 3444 3323 3094 45-49 2286 2153 2857 3368 3262 2884 2771 3062 3395 3282 50-54 2327 2189 2064 2750 3253 3160 2803 2700 2991 3325 55-59 2123 2177 2054 1944 2601 3092 3017 2689 2602 2895 60-64 1706 1917 1975 1874 1782 2401 2876 2827 2539 2474 65-69 883 1458 1650 1714 1642 1576 2146 2597 2580 2343 70-74 1039 691 1151 1319 1393 1356 1320 1825 2243 2262 75+ 1183 1232 1025 1244 1556 1809 1952 2035 2510 3213 TOTAL 40684 41663 42462 43340 44322 45290 46192 47019 47795 48545 FEMALES 0-4 3365 3104 3022 3034 3105 3134 3100 3048 3028 3048 5-9 3502 3341 3073 3000 3018 3093 3125 3094 3043 3025 10-14 3181 3486 3319 3058 2990 3011 3088 3122 3091 3042 15-19 2891 3163 3460 3301 3045 2980 3004 3083 3118 3089 20-24 2982 2860 3116 3426 3276 3028 2968 2995 3077 3114 25-29 3363 2944 2805 3077 3397 3256 3014 2957 2987 3072 30-34 3472 3327 2898 2772 3052 3377 3241 3003 2949 2982 35-39 2946 3437 3286 2868 2749 3033 3361 3228 2993 2942 40-44 2244 2912 3397 3253 2843 2729 3014 3343 3213 2981 45-49 2378 2211 2870 3355 3217 2815 2705 2990 3320 3194 50-54 2456 2328 2166 2818 3300 3170 2778 2672 2959 3289 55-59 2414 2380 2260 2108 2751 3228 3107 2728 2630 2917 60-64 2192 2298 2272 2166 2029 2657 3129 3022 2662 2575 65-69 1183 2019 2128 2119 2036 1918 2527 2993 2907 2576 70-74 1516 1026 1766 1884 1902 1847 1758 2340 2800 2748 75+ 2119 2287 2033 2489 3004 3367 3588 3700 4338 5328 TOTAL 42205 43125 43872 44729 45714 46644 47505 48317 49115 49922 BIRTH RATE 15.6 14.9 14.6 14.6 14.4 13.9 13.4 13.1 13.0 DEATH RATE 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.9 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 RATE OF NAT. INC. .52 .47 .47 .49 .45 .40 .36 .33 .32 NET MIGRATION RATE -.7 -1.1 -.7 -.5 -.3 -.2 -.1 -.0 .0 GROWTH RATE .45 .36 .40 .44 .42 .38 .35 .33 .32 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.129 2.091 2.074 2.066 2.067 2.072 2.076 2.079 2.082 NRR 1.006 .986 .980 .979 .983 .988 .991 .995 .999 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 70.94 71.81 72.86 74.02 74.99 76.00 77.07 78.19 79.37 e(1S) - BOTH SEXES 57.88 58.54 59.35 60.30 61.13 62.01 62.94 63.92 64.96 IMR - BOTH SEXES 19.6 17.2 14.4 11.9 10.4 9.1 7.6 6.2 4.8 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0239 .0211 .0176 .0146 .0130 .0114 .0097 .0081 .0064 DEP. RATIO 52.6 52.3 50.9 50.3 50.7 50.6 53.0 56.9 59.8 60.9 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 51 Summary Projectfon EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA COUNTRY DEPT. Il AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 82889 88069 96910 102271 104882 106697 107902 108496 MALES 0-4 3556 3216 3216 3246 3255 3255 3253 3253 5-9 3687 3175 3229 3257 3256 3252 3251 3250 10-14 3354 3233 3277 3268 3255 3250 3250 3250 15-19 3051 3476 3300 3258 3245 3245 3247 3248 20-24 3154 3590 3245 3220 3230 3239 3243 3243 25-29 3520 3222 3138 3182 3221 3233 3235 3235 30-34 3591 2896 3086 3185 3223 3227 3226 3226 35-39 3005 m7 3119 3217 3222 3215 3215 3216 40-44 2219 3333 3323 3221 3196 3193 3199 3204 45-49 2286 3368 3395 3145 3140 3163 3180 3186 50-54 2327 2750 2991 3001 3070 3126 3149 3155 55-59 2123 1944 2602 2884 3017 3080 3101 3107 60-64 1706 1874 2539 2811 2963 3008 3026 3037 65-69 883 1714 2580 2826 2839 2876 2908 2931 70-74 1039 1319 2243 2628 2583 2662 2732 2771 75+ 1183 1244 2510 4186 5193 5817 6235 6436 TOTAL 40684 43340 47795 50535 51908 52842 53450 53750 FEMALES 0-4 3365 3034 3028 3053 3061 3060 3059 3058 5-9 3502 3000 3043 3065 3063 3059 3057 3057 10-14 3181 3058 3091 3076 3062 3057 3056 3057 15-19 2891 3301 3118 3070 3054 3054 3056 3057 20-24 2982 3426 3077 3041 3045 3053 3056 3056 25-29 3363 3077 2987 3016 3045 3055 3055 3055 30-34 3472 2772 2949 3029 3055 3056 3054 3053 35-39 2946 2868 2993 3071 3062 3052 3049 3050 40-44 2244 3253 3213 3090 3050 3040 3044 3047 45-49 2378 3355 3320 3037 3013 3026 3038 3043 50-54 2456 2818 2959 2931 2975 3016 3033 3036 55-59 2414 2108 2630 2865 2968 3012 3023 3025 60-64 2192 2166 2662 2867 2981 2998 3004 3008 65-69 1183 2119 2907 3012 2957 2956 2969 2982 70-74 1516 1884 2800 3000 2838 2871 2917 2944 75+ 2119 2489 4338 6515 7743 8489 8982 9218 TOTAL 42205 44729 49115 51736 52974 53855 54452 54746 BIRTH RATE 15.0 13.9 12.7 12.2 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 10.2 9.8 10.6 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -.8 -.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .40 .38 .22 .10 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.091 2.072 2.082 2.077 2.074 2.073 2.072 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 71.88 76.09 80.64 83.12 84.49 85.50 85.90 IMR - BOTH SEXES 17.1 9.1 4.1 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 52 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENIS EUROPE AN CENTRAL ASIA COUNTRY DEPT. m Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 277601 289341 299732 310419 321365 331956 342252 351792 360931 369633 MALES 0-4 13098 13637 12475 12070 12393 12848 12936 12749 12557 12504 5-9 11953 12956 13524 12424 12028 12354 12812 12905 12723 12536 10-14 11078 11860 12882 13490 12397 12005 12333 12794 12891 12712 15-19 10544 10959 11763 12827 13440 12355 11969 12301 12765 12865 20-24 9947 10332 10792 11673 12743 13359 12287 11909 12246 12715 25-29 11876 9679 10124 10689 11580 12649 13268 12211 11842 12185 30-34 11407 11581 9482 10021 10599 11490 12559 13181 12140 11781 35-39 10036 11113 11349 9365 9920 10501 11394 12464 13093 12069 40-44 6595 9737 10851 11161 9237 9795 10380 11275 12347 12986 45-49 6907 6341 9433 10584 10926 9057 9620 10211 11111 12187 50-54 7975 6557 6056 9069 10228 10585 8796 9366 9968 10874 55-59 6521 7397 6122 5692 8581 9719 10101 8429 9013 9633 60-64 5736 5830 6666 5560 5215 7917 9031 9450 7939 8548 65-69 2638 4846 4975 5749 4853 4602 7061 8137 8601 7298 70-74 1807 2039 3794 3953 4648 3987 3842 5984 7001 7509 75+ 2665 2376 2408 3740 4715 5750 5950 5989 7817 10023 TOTAL 130781 137238 142696 148067 153502 158974 164339 169356 174055 178425 FEMALES 0-4 12803 13091 11965 11567 11866 12299 12381 12199 12013 11960 5-9 11573 12682 12999 11931 11540 11841 12278 12363 12185 12003 10-14 10765 11499 12627 12983 11918 11529 11833 12271 12358 12183 15-19 10044 10679 11436 12610 12967 11906 11519 11824 12263 12353 20-24 9806 9895 10574 11415 12589 12948 11889 11504 11811 12251 25-29 11759 9630 9773 10551 11393 12566 12926 11870 11487 11794 30-34 11421 11600 9525 9746 10526 11368 12540 12900 11848 11467 35-39 10237 11283 11499 9490 9716 10495 11336 12507 12869 11822 40-44 6884 10112 11181 11436 9445 9673 10452 11294 12463 12828 45-49 7636 6778 9996 11087 11353 9381 9612 10391 11233 12402 50-54 9084 7482 6666 9865 10962 11232 9286 9522 10301 11143 55-59 8049 8819 7302 6534 9699 10788 11065 9158 9401 10181 60-64 8763 7685 8494 7079 6368 9469 10552 10842 8990 9246 65-69 5582 8123 7229 8081 6794 6132 9148 10227 10541 8768 70-74 4405 4894 7310 6635 7532 6370 5785 8679 9758 10113 75+ 8009 7850 8459 11342 13195 14985 15313 14886 17356 20692 TOTAL 146820 152103 157036 162352 167863 172982 177913 182436 186877 191208 BIRTH RATE 19.4 17.0 15.8 15.6 15.6 15.2 14.5 13.9 13.5 DEATH RATE 10.0 9.3 8.8 8.7 9.1 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. .94 .78 .70 .69 .65 .61 .55 .51 .48 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.1 -.7 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .83 .71 .70 .69 .65 .61 .55 .51 .48 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.649 2.424 2.294 2.227 2.172 2.114 2.081 2.071 2.066 NRR 1.244 1.153 1.092 1.063 1.040 1.015 1.002 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 70.43 72.16 73.78 75.30 76.15 77.04 77.98 78.96 80.01 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 57.50 59.01 60.39 61.70 62.40 63.13 63.90 64.71 65.57 INR - BOTH SEXES 23.8 20.4 17.1 14.1 12.3 10.4 8.5 6.7 4.8 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0288 .0248 .0208 .0174 .0152 .0129 .0108 .0086 .0065 DEP. RATIO 53.2 57.7 58.5 58.0 54.9 52.8 55.2 58.0 60.3 59.8 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 53 Sunwmry Projection EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASUI COUNTRY DEPT. III AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 277601 310419 360931 394678 411720 419217 423715 425887 MALES 0-4 13098 12070 12557 12683 12686 12673 12667 12666 5-9 11953 12424 12723 12721 12674 12655 12655 12656 10-14 11078 13490 12891 12691 12643 12643 12652 12656 15-19 10544 12827 12765 12562 12600 12633 12648 12650 20-24 9947 11673 12246 12424 12574 12622 12630 12629 25-29 11876 10689 11842 12414 12580 12600 12596 12595 30-34 11407 10021 12140 12538 12583 12558 12552 12557 35-39 10036 9365 13093 12645 12505 12486 12505 12522 40-44 6595 11161 12347 12449 12317 12393 12453 12478 45-49 6907 10584 11111 11856 12108 12308 12387 12410 50-54 7975 9069 9968 11306 11968 12203 12267 12284 55-59 6521 5692 9013 11314 11860 12017 12061 12087 60-64 5736 5560 7939 11747 11619 11660 11743 11808 65-69 2638 5749 8601 10431 10935 11063 11278 11400 70-74 1807 3953 7001 8517 9679 10233 10616 10784 75+ 2665 3740 7817 13683 19670 22526 24184 24978 TOTAL 130781 148067 174055 191980 201001 205273 207894 209160 FEMALES 0-4 12803 11567 12013 12114 12111 12095 12088 12087 5-9 11573 11931 12185 12160 12103 12082 12080 12081 10-14 10765 12983 12358 12140 12076 12072 12078 12081 15-19 10044 12610 12263 12034 12043 12070 12080 12081 20-24 9806 11415 11811 11936 12042 12079 12081 12079 25-29 11759 10551 11487 11975 12087 12090 12077 12072 30-34 11421 9746 11848 12138 12128 12080 12063 12063 35-39 10237 9490 12869 12290 12093 12041 12045 12055 4-44 6884 11436 12463 12168 11968 11994 12031 12047 45-49 7636 11087 11233 11682 11844 11973 12025 12034 50-54 9084 9865 10301 11301 11838 11984 12009 12006 55-59 8049 6534 9401 11562 11931 11974 11959 11957 60-64 8763 7079 8990 12411 11981 11867 11863 11889 65-69 5582 8081 10541 11810 11717 11638 11733 11802 70-74 4405 6635 9758 10343 11020 11345 11574 11672 75+ 8009 11342 17356 24633 31737 34560 36034 36723 TOTAL 146820 162352 186877 202697 210718 213945 215821 216728 BIRTH RATE 17.4 14.9 13.1 12.3 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.3 8.9 9.6 10.6 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .74 .60 .36 .17 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.446 2.131 2.064 2.060 2.058 2.057 2.056 etO) - BOTH SEXES 72.16 77.14 81.16 83.44 84.69 85.62 85.98 INR - BOTH SEXES 20.5 10.4 4.1 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 54 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS EUROPEAN COnMUNrIrY Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 338595 344282 349146 352918 355893 357474 358006 358205 358152 357978 MALES 0-4 10511 10437 10778 10452 10170 9905 9851 9967 10106 10200 5-9 11034 10611 10459 10776 10439 10156 9892 9840 9957 10096 10-14 12379 11111 10630 10461 10769 10432 10150 9888 9836 9954 15-19 14001 12439 11116 10620 10444 10751 10417 10137 9877 9827 20-24 14282 14100 12444 11096 10586 10409 10717 10385 10108 9851 25-29 12886 14419 14105 12414 11050 10539 10363 10671 10342 10068 30-34 12028 13000 14408 14059 12359 11000 10493 10320 10629 10304 35-39 11884 12085 12968 14344 13987 12296 10946 10444 10274 10585 40-44 10390 11862 12008 12872 14236 13884 12209 10872 10376 10211 45-49 10553 10280 11708 11855 12717 14072 13733 12084 10768 10284 50-54 9807 10296 10039 11451 11615 12471 13814 13494 11885 10600 55-59 9237 9392 9899 9687 11086 11264 12115 13443 13155 11606 60-64 8120 8610 8823 9362 9214 10578 10781 11633 12949 12712 65-69 5328 7266 7793 8071 8650 8556 9874 10118 10977 12285 70-74 5430 4458 6182 6746 7096 7676 7657 8914 9215 10086 75+ 6946 7635 7479 8842 10427 11803 13146 14071 15769 17367 TOTAL 164815 168001 170840 173108 174845 175793 176159 176280 176223 176037 FEMALES 0-4 9935 9894 10210 9897 9626 9374 9323 9432 9562 9650 5-9 10444 10044 9924 10214 9889 9616 9366 9315 9425 9556 10-14 11730 10528 10069 9930 10211 9885 9613 9363 9313 9424 15-19 13289 11824 10554 10073 9925 10204 9880 9608 9359 9310 20-24 13728 13465 11874 10565 100h5 9914 10194 9870 9600 9352 25-29 12506 13935 13520 11883 10553 10050 9900 10180 9857 9588 30-34 11756 12655 13963 13513 11863 10533 10033 9884 10164 9843 35-39 11629 11835 12655 13937 13480 11834 10509 10011 9864 10146 40-44 10212 11635 11801 12608 13884 13430 11794 10476 9983 9839 45-49 10516 10158 11556 11723 12531 13804 13359 11736 10430 9943 50-54 9998 10390 10040 11432 11609 12416 13686 13253 11651 10360 55-59 9957 9800 10201 9875 11264 11451 12259 13526 13113 11538 60-64 9876 9645 9525 9948 9657 11035 11240 12053 13322 12937 65-69 6987 9373 9213 9151 9609 9353 10720 10953 11780 13058 70-74 7941 6375 8658 8599 8623 9104 8904 10259 10539 11392 75+ 13275 14723 14544 16463 18260 19675 21067 22005 23967 26004 TOTAL 173779 176281 178306 179810 181049 181681 181847 181926 181929 181941 BIRTH RATE 12.0 12.2 11.7 11.2 10.9 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 DEATH RATE 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.6 10.0 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.2 RATE OF MAT. INC. .18 .23 .19 .16 .09 .03 .01 -.00 -.01 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.5 .5 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .33 .28 .21 .17 .09 .03 .01 -.00 -.01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.586 1.636 1.657 1.732 1.805 1.874 1.937 1.995 2.050 NRR .757 .782 .794 .830 .867 .903 .934 .962 .989 o(O) - BOTH SEXES 75.89 77.03 78.12 79.16 79.79 80.43 81.11 81.80 82.52 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 61.91 62.92 63.90 64.84 65.41 66.00 66.61 67.25 67.90 INR - BOTH SEXES 9.0 7.5 6.4 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.6 3.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0113 .0096 .0083 .0074 .0068 .0062 .0056 .0050 .0044 DEP. RATIO 49.4 48.5 49.7 51.3 53.3 54.1 56.7 59.9 64.5 71.4 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMNS 55 Sury Projectfon for 25-Year Perfods EUROPEA COM1uNnJ. AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 338595 352918 358152 345870 333681 334456 336439 337511 MALES 0-4 10511 10452 10106 10032 10033 10046 10051 10052 5-9 11034 10776 9957 9973 10028 10046 10047 10045 10-14 12379 10461 9836 9989 10053 10054 10047 10043 15-19 14001 10620 9877 10100 10075 10048 10037 10036 20-24 14282 11096 10108 10158 10048 10016 10016 10020 25-29 12886 12414 10342 10029 9966 9973 9990 9997 30-34 12028 14059 10629 9855 9885 9947 9970 9974 35-39 11884 14344 10274 9700 9870 9944 9952 9948 40-44 10390 12872 10376 9695 9941 9932 9915 9910 45-49 10553 11855 10768 9866 9950 9863 9845 9850 50-54 9807 11451 1-1885 9992 9738 9705 9730 9754 55-59 9237 9687 13155 10088 9426 9498 9584 9619 60-64 8120 9362 12949 9492 9066 9290 9399 9425 65-69 5328 8071 10977 9192 8739 9055 9105 9117 70-74 5430 6746 9215 8913 8387 8595 8604 8630 75+ 6946 8842 15769 22559 19391 19229 19894 20298 TOTAL 164815 173108 176223 169633 164595 165241 166185 166717 FEMALES 0-4 9935 9897 9562 9492 9493 av35 9510 9510 5-9 10444 10214 9425 9438 9490 9507 9508 9506 10-14 11730 9930 9313 9454 9515 9515 9508 9505 15-19 13289 10073 9359 9564 9541 9514 9504 9503 20-24 13728 10565 9600 9634 9529 9498 9496 9500 25-29 12506 11883 9857 9538 9473 9478 9492 9498 30-34 11756 13513 10164 9396 9417 9473 9493 9496 35-39 11629 13937 9864 9271 9424 9491 9495 9490 40-44 10212 12608 9983 9299 9520 9507 9486 9479 45-49 10516 11723 10430 9513 9572 9481 9458 9460 50-54 9998 11432 11651 9726 9446 9402 9419 9438 55-59 9957 9875 13113 9963 9260 9312 9385 9414 60-64 9876 9948 13322 9577 9074 9268 9361 9378 65-69 6987 9151 11780 9554 9008 9288 9315 9313 70-74 7941 8599 10539 9745 9057 9214 9188 9194 75+ 13275 16463 23967 33071 28267 27763 28636 29111 TOTAL 173779 179810 181929 176237 169086 169214 170254 170795 BIRTH RATE 11.9 11.0 11.1 11.6 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 9.9 10.4 12.5 13.1 11.7 11.4 11.5 NET NIGRATION RATE .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GRORTH RATE .28 .06 -.14 -.14 .01 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.623 1.864 2.066 2.067 2.066 2.065 2.065 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 77.03 80.46 83.24 84.64 85.40 85.97 86.21 INR - BOT0 SEXES 7.6 4.6 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION 58 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS MIDDLE EAST AMD NORTH AFRICA Population Projection (thousands) AGE GROWP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 212727 246899 286523 328414 373295 421171 471850 524895 579785 635726 MALES 0-4 18298 20869 23598 25324 27134 29116 31042 32800 34384 35668 5-9 15434 17801 20444 23189 24982 26819 28836 30804 32609 34246 10-14 13186 15299 17697 20320 23074 24873 26719 28746 30727 32547 15-19 11450 13075 15207 17580 20201 22953 24757 26608 28643 30634 20-24 9826 11322 12984 15068 17430 20040 22787 24595 26452 28495 25-29 8674 9699 11246 12850 14918 17265 19868 22611 24426 26291 30-34 7250 8556 9627 11121 12715 14768 17108 19707 22450 24273 35-39 5467 7137 8468 9501 10984 12569 14613 16947 19543 22287 40-44 4196 5356 7028 8326 9349 10820 12395 14428 16754 19343 45-49 3649 4077 5228 6861 8141 9149 10603 12164 14179 16489 50-54 3046 3495 3920 5039 6631 788i 8868 10296 11832 13815 55-59 2557 2855 3288 3706 4782 6310 7515 8471 9856 11351 60-64 1964 2322 2601 3017 3420 4429 5865 7005 7914 9234 65-69 1455 1699 2014 2277 2662 3035 3949 5255 6301 7142 70-74 1041 1163 1364 1634 1868 2202 2530 3314 4439 5353 75+ 1011 1204 1392 1651 2010 2384 2841 3358 4251 5649 TOTAL 108505 125927 146107 167464 190301 214612 240294 267109 294762 322818 FEMALES 0-4 17393 20109 22710 24340 26048 27897 29685 31300 32739 33885 5-9 14610 16966 19750 22365 24058 25788 27664 29484 31137 32617 10-14 12509 14490 16880 19644 22271 23969 25706 27591 29422 31088 15-19 10865 12404 14414 16777 19545 22173 23879 25625 27522 29367 20-24 9322 10739 12330 14289 16655 19419 22053 23771 25531 27447 25-29 8044 9188 10663 12196 14158 16521 19286 21928 23664 25445 30-34 6718 7913 9101 10529 12067 14026 16390 19158 21813 23569 35-39 5210 6593 7812 8966 10396 11933 13890 16257 19029 21697 40-44 4125 5094 6477 7671 8823 10250 11785 13741 16109 18885 45-49 3694 4012 4973 6328 7512 8657 10077 11609 13561 15927 50-54 3126 3561 3880 4816 6146 7315 8449 9858 11383 13327 55-59 2638 2968 3392 3706 4617 5912 7059 8178 9572 11086 60-64 2043 2441 2758 3164 3475 4349 5597 6714 7812 9185 65-69 1550 1808 2171 2467 2851 3155 3978 5158 6233 7303 70-74 1160 1268 1491 1804 2073 2424 2715 3461 4542 5552 75+ 1216 1416 1614 1887 2299 2770 3344 3953 4955 6529 TOTAL 104223 120972 140416 160950 182994 206559 231556 257786 285023 312909 BIRTH RATE 39.2 37.6 34.6 32.2 30.2 28.4 26.7 25.0 23.3 DEATH RATE 9.4 8.5 7.4 6.6 6.1 5.7 5.3 5.1 4.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.98 2.92 2.73 2.56 2.41 2.27 2.13 1.99 1.84 NET MIGRATION RATE -.0 .6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.98 2.98 2.73 2.56 2.41 2.27 2.13 1.99 1.84 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.550 5.151 4.706 4.294 3.930 3.597 3.319 3.103 2.920 NRR 2.309 2.199 2.055 1.909 1.756 1.635 1.537 1.451 1.380 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 61.81 63.39 65.43 67.29 68.61 69.97 71.38 72.83 74.35 eos) - BOTH SEXES 54.80 55.29 56.29 57.16 57.86 58.58 59.33 60.09 60.89 INR - BOTH SEXES 77.3 68.5 59.5 50.9 44.3 37.5 30.6 23.4 15.9 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .1061 .0919 .0781 .0652 .0567 .0481 .0392 .0300 .0204 DEP. RATIO 86.8 85.9 84.4 80.9 76.1 70.7 66.8 64.2 61.9 59.7 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 59 S_uary ProJection for 25-Yeor Perrods MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 212727 328414 579785 850090 1050780 1161526 1203050 1217098 MALES 0-4 18298 25324 34384 37137 36838 36590 36533 36529 5-9 15434 23189 32609 37096 36656 36464 36484 36506 10-14 13186 20320 30727 36720 36205 36395 36495 36517 15-19 11450 17580 28643 36245 36025 36446 36524 36509 20-24 9826 15068 26452 35287 36497 36559 36491 36441 25-29 8674 12850 24426 33799 36756 36546 36354 36317 30-34 7250 11121 22450 31985 36611 36275 36148 36193 35-39 5467 9501 19543 29989 36086 35702 35971 36104 40-44 4196 8326 16754 277 35426 35369 35888 36013 45-49 3649 6861 14179 25432 34251 35638 35831 35826 50-54 3046 5039 11832 23102 32394 35531 35513 35416 55-59 2557 3706 9856 20636 29991 34780 34738 34751 60-64 1964 3017 7914 17154 27174 33372 33430 33881 65-69 1455 2277 6301 13671 23854 31410 31974 32729 70-74 1041 1634 4439 10274 20029 28364 30434 31010 75+ 1011 1651 4251 13141 3221M 53140 67078 70574 TOTAL 108505 167464 294762 429446 527003 578581 595887 601317 FEMALES 0-4 17393 24340 32739 35310 35038 34805 34753 34751 5-9 14610 22365 31137 35269 34871 34691 34713 34736 10-14 12509 19644 29422 34908 34442 34627 34725 34748 15-19 10865 16m 27522 34475 34287 34691 34768 34756 20-24 9322 14289 25531 33631 34793 34850 34785 34738 25-29 8044 12196 23664 32384 35122 34919 34732 34694 30-34 6718 10529 21813 30800 35053 34736 34607 34648 35-39 5210 8966 19029 29017 34617 34256 34505 34631 40-44 4125 7671 16109 27019 34082 34031 34518 34634 45-49 3694 6328 13561 24896 33094 34431 34605 34596 50-54 3126 4816 11383 22824 31626 34580 34554 34451 55-59 2628 3706 9572 20679 29732 34243 34193 34189 60-64 2043 3164 7812 17556 27523 33433 33468 33891 65-69 1550 2467 6233 14243 24937 32348 32879 33611 70-74 1160 1804 4542 11131 21937 30507 32647 33212 75+ 1216 1887 4955 16503 42621 71796 92711 99496 TOTAL 104223 160950 285023 420645 523776 582945 607164 615781 BIRTH RATE 36.9 28.1 20.2 15.0 12.9 12.1 11.8 DEATH RATE 8.3 5.7 5.1 6.6 8.9 10.7 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.90 2.27 1.53 .85 .40 .14 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.089 3.570 2.597 2.109 2.068 2.062 2.061 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 63.72 70.33 76.39 80.28 82.s7 84.56 85.32 IMR - BOTH SEXES 67.9 36.6 12.0 5.5 3.6 2.4 2.2 60 BANK RBOION AND COUNTRY DEPARTtNI MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA COUNTRY DEPr. I Poputatfon Projectf o(thouands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M4F 55300 63108 72178 81592 90930 100184 109242 117975 126711 135463 MALES 0-4 4684 4885 55S5 5756 S757 5803 S812 5765 5911 6086 5-9 4079 4580 4800 5483 5699 5709 5764 5781 S742 5895 10-14 3596 4051 45S4 4776 S463 5681 5694 57S1 5770 S734 15-19 3112 3S71 402S 4530 4755 5440 S659 5675 5734 S756 20-24 2537 3078 3536 399 4498 4724 5407 5628 5647 S708 25-29 2204 2502 3041 3502 3959 4463 4690 5371 5595 5617 30-34 1679 2170 2469 3009 3470 3926 4430 4658 5339 5565 35-39 1163 1649 2136 2438 2977 3436 3891 4394 4624 5305 40-64 952 1136 1615 2101 2403 2937 3394 3848 4350 4582 45-49 928 923 1103 1576 2055 2354 2883 3336 3787 4287 50-54 735 887 885 1061 1522 1989 2284 2803 3250 3696 55-59 674 687 833 835 1004 1445 1896 2184 2688 3125 60-64 506 608 622 761 767 925 1339 1766 204 2526 65-69 412 434 524 540 667 678 820 1197 1590 1853 70-74 313 324 345 420 438 548 562 685 1011 1356 75. 318 352 386 424 506 571 692 781 924 1268 TOTAL 27892 31837 36430 41205 45939 50630 55216 59622 64005 68360 FEMALES 0-4 412 4711 5350 5535 5530 5567 5569 5517 5650 S810 5-9 3867 4323 4638 5290 5490 5492 5537 5545 5500 S639 10-14 3414 3842 4302 4621 5274 5476 5481 5527 5538 5494 15-19 2950 3389 3819 4283 4605 5259 5463 5469 5518 5531 20-24 2475 2919 3359 3795 4261 4584 5239 5446 5456 5507 25-29 2132 2442 2886 3331 3770 4238 4562 5219 5429 5443 30-34 1682 2099 2410 2858 3306 3745 4214 4541 5199 5413 35-39 1233 1653 2068 2382 2831 3278 3718 4188 4517 5177 40-44 1047 1208 1624 2037 2352 2800 3246 3686 4157 4489 45-49 1049 1021 1180 1591 2002 2315 2760 3205 3645 4117 50-54 835 1013 990 1147 1551 1955 2265 2707 3151 3590 55-59 726 796 968 949 1104 1497 1893 2200 2638 3078 60-64 508 674 742 907 896 1045 1425 1808 2112 2544 65-69 409 451 602 669 824 821 963 1323 1691 1989 70-74 316 336 375 503 568 708 715 848 1179 1525 75+ 351 392 435 489 627 m 976 1123 1328 1757 TOTAL 27408 31271 35748 40387 44991 49554 54026 58353 62706 67103 BIRTH RATE 35.3 34.6 31.2 27.5 24.8 22.5 20.4 19.3 18.4 DEATH RATE 8.7 7.6 6.6 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.66 2.70 2.46 2.17 1.94 1.73 1.54 1.43 1.34 NET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.64 2.69 2.45 2.17 1.94 1.73 1.54 1.43 1.34 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.087 4.491 3.939 3.394 3.009 2.687 2.413 2.300 2.260 NRR 2.145 1.957 1.764 1.S49 1.385 1.250 1.133 1.089 1.082 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 62.76 64.80 66.85 68.88 70.17 71.51 72.89 74.32 75.80 eCIS) - BOTN SEXES 55.03 S5.88 56.87 57.98 58.71 59.47 60.25 61.07 61.92 IMR - BOTH SEXES 71.5 60.7 50.6 41.6 35.4 29.2 22.8 16.5 10.2 qCS) - BOTH SEXES .0961 .0795 .0646 .0519 .0442 .0364 .0285 .0206 .0127 DEP. RATIO 89.9 83.3 79.0 73.3 68.1 60.7 54.6 51.0 49.3 48.8 BANK REGION AND COUNlRY DEPARTMENTS 61 Sumry Projectfon MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA COUNTRY DEPT. I AGE GROWP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL MeF 55300 81592 126711 164909 186795 195387 199223 200922 MALES 0-4 4684 5756 5911 5940 5999 6010 6009 6007 5-9 4079 5483 5742 5988 6023 6014 6005 6001 10-14 3598 478 5770 6061 6046 6011 6000 5999 15-19 3112 4530 5734 6102 6025 5992 5992 5996 20-24 2537 3993 5647 6035 5946 5966 5981 5988 25-29 2204 3502 5595 5828 5886 5955 5973 5974 30-34 1679 3009 5339 5646 5916 5964 5964 59s 35-39 1163 2438 4624 5648 5963 5966 5943 5937 40-44 952 2101 4350 5579 5973 5920 5903 5909 45-49 928 1576 3787 5451 5869 5812 5851 5874 50-54 735 1061 3250 5318 5600 5699 5791 5822 55-59 674 835 2688 4937 5314 5633 5719 5738 60-64 506 761 2044 4093 5147 5535 5598 5605 65-69 412 540 1590 3596 4834 5326 5368 5393 70-74 313 420 1011 2794 4352 4903 4985 5078 75+ 318 424 924 3688 7922 9938 11204 11732 TOTAL 27892 41205 64005 8270 92815 96645 98286 99010 FEMALES 0-4 4412 5535 5650 5662 5716 5729 5728 5726 5-9 3867 5290 5500 5711 5741 5734 s5 5722 10-14 3414 4621 5538 5784 5762 5731 5721 5720 15-19 2950 4283 5518 5831 5745 5715 5716 5720 20-24 2475 3795 5456 5783 5679 5699 5714 5720 25-29 2132 3331 5429 5610 5639 5701 5718 5719 30-34 1682 2858 5199 5457 5684 5723 5722 5716 35-39 1233 2382 4517 5481 5746 5737 5713 5707 40-4 1047 2037 4157 541 5777 5709 5690 5696 45-49 1049 1591 3645 5348 5708 5629 5664 568 50-54 835 1147 3151 5270 5502 5566 5649 5677 55-59 726 949 2638 4968 5300 5574 5645 5659 60-64 508 907 2112 4215 5244 5581 5622 5621 65-69 409 669 1691 3736 5087 5532 5540 5555 70-74 316 503 1179 3067 4809 5334 5375 5458 75+ 351 489 1328 4840 10842 14049 15994 16810 TOTAL 27408 40387 62706 82205 93981 98742 100937 101912 BIRTH RATE 33.5 22.5 16.2 13.3 12.3 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.6 5.2 5.8 8.4 10.5 11.1 11.4 NET NIGRATION RATE -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.59 1.76 1.05 .50 .18 .08 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.430 2.705 2.180 2.068 2.063 2.059 2.058 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 64.98 71.79 77.67 81.27 83.35 84.94 85.57 MR - BOTH SEXES 60.5 29.2 7.7 3.7 2.8 2.2 2.1 62 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA COUNTRY DEPT. H Poputation Projection (thousands) AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL MeF 151592 177277 206242 237864 272621 310469 351301 394829 440230 486711 KALES 0-4 13222 15562 17531 19038 20856 22788 24691 26487 27929 29043 5-9 10993 12830 15185 17196 18756 20592 22551 24486 26321 27808 10-14 9254 10886 12723 15084 17104 18668 20508 22475 24421 26268 15-19 8051 9170 10792 12631 14989 17007 18574 20418 22390 24343 20-24 7034 7956 9059 10685 12516 14863 16877 18446 20293 22270 25-29 6247 6941 7846 8959 10573 12390 14728 16741 18313 20164 30-34 5375 6161 6839 7752 8859 10460 12269 14602 16615 18193 35-39 4133 5291 6061 6744 7651 8750 10342 12146 14475 16489 40-44 3122 4050 5184 5955 6631 7530 8622 10204 12001 14320 45-49 2607 3033 3937 5059 5821 6484 7373 8455 10020 11803 50-54 2208 2496 2908 3794 4889 5632 6280 7152 8216 9754 55-59 1793 2069 23"4 2749 3600 4651 5368 5993 6837 7869 60-64 1374 1628 1884 2152 2537 3334 4321 4998 5588 6389 65-69 981 1188 1412 1651 1899 2250 2971 3866 4486 5023 70-74 667 786 953 1147 1355 1569 1872 2488 3255 3792 75+ 622 766 919 1129 1395 1691 2012 2419 3116 4104 TOTAL 77681 90813 105578 121725 139432 158661 179361 201378 224275 247631 FEMALES 0-4 12608 14993 16868 18296 20019 21828 23600 25260 26570 27561 5-9 10402 12272 14669 16585 18063 19799 21628 23425 25114 26460 10-14 8781 10307 12179 14580 16507 17989 19730 21565 23371 25071 15-19 7645 8700 10221 12095 14498 16427 17914 19661 21506 23324 20-24 6612 7549 8596 10121 11996 14395 16328 17824 19583 21442 25-29 5699 6510 7436 8490 10016 11888 14286 16226 17735 19510 30-34 4833 5600 6400 7330 8388 9911 11783 14181 16131 17657 35-39 3797 4737 5494 6295 7226 8284 9805 11677 14077 16039 40-44 2951 3707 4631 5385 6184 7113 8171 9690 11562 13963 45-49 2526 2866 3606 4516 5265 6058 6984 8039 9554 11423 50-54 2183 2430 2763 3485 4378 5117 5902 6821 7871 9378 55-59 1810 2069 2308 2632 3332 4201 4928 5701 6609 7652 60-64 1438 1670 1915 2146 2459 3129 3965 4673 5430 6323 65-69 1071 1266 1477 1703 1922 2220 2847 3636 4317 5051 70-74 7m3 870 1035 1217 1418 1619 1893 2456 3174 3813 75+ 780 919 1064 1263 1518 1828 2178 2617 3350 4413 TOTAL 73911 86464 100664 116139 133190 151807 171940 193452 215955 239080 BIRTH RATE 41.0 39.1 36.2 34.1 32.3 30.6 28.8 26.9 24.9 DEATH RATE 9.7 8.8 7.7 6.9 6.3 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.9 RATE OF MAT. INC. 3.13 3.03 2.85 2.72 2.60 2.47 2.34 2.18 2.01 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.13 3.03 2.85 2.73 2.60 2.47 2.34 2.18 2.01 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.798 5.468 5.064 4.690 4.312 3.950 3.646 3.378 3.133 NRR 2.390 2.315 2.195 2.071 1.909 1.778 1.678 1.574 1.476 oeO) - 80TH SEXES 61.09 62.51 64.59 66.44 67.82 69.25 70.71 72.22 73.78 eIs) - BOTH SEXES 54.54 54.87 55.88 56.69 57.41 58.14 58.90 59.67 60.47 IMR - BOTH SEXES 80.2 72.0 63.1 54.1 47.1 40.0 32.7 25.1 17.3 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .1108 .0972 .0833 .0697 .0606 .0514 .0420 .0323 .0222 DEP. RATIO 86.1 87.3 87.1 84.4 79.6 74.8 71.5 69.0 66.2 63.2 BANK REOION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMUENrrS 63 Summry ProJection UMDDLE EAST AND NORTH AJFRCA COUNTRY DEPT. II AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 151592 237864 440230 669456 846794 948446 985910 998148 MALES 0-4 13222 19038 27929 30657 30302 30043 29987 29986 5-9 l0993 17196 26321 30571 30097 29914 29943 29968 10-14 9254 15084 24421 30127 29624 29847 29958 29981 15-19 8051 12631 22390 29611 29464 29917 29996 29977 20-24 7034 10685 20293 28717 30014 30056 29974 29918 25-29 6247 8959 18313 27433 30334 30057 29848 29809 30-34 5375 7752 16615 25801 30163 29780 29653 29703 35-39 4133 6744 14475 23815 29598 29207 29497 29636 40-44 3122 5955 12001 21691 28931 28921 29456 29574 45-49 2607 5059 10020 19484 27859 29300 29454 29426 50-54 2208 3794 8216 17288 26274 29312 29202 29074 55-59 1793 2749 6837 15232 24166 28638 28509 28501 60-64 1374 2152 5588 12657 21541 27347 27334 27775 65-69 981 1651 4486 9726 18571 25614 26126 26851 70-74 667 1147 3255 7181 15266 23017 24994 25473 75+ 622 1129 3116 8898 23464 42228 54841 57779 TOTAL 77681 121725 224275 338888 425668 473200 488770 493430 FEMALES 0-4 12608 18296 26570 29133 28809 28564 28512 28513 5-9 10402 16585 25114 29046 28619 28446 28476 28502 10-14 8781 14580 23371 28616 28169 28384 28492 28516 15-19 7645 12095 21506 28137 28030 28463 28540 28524 20-24 6612 10121 19583 27336 28601 28638 28560 28507 25-29 5699 8490 17735 26257 28969 28707 28502 28463 30-34 4833 7330 16131 24824 28859 28503 28375 28421 35-39 3797 6295 14077 23026 28367 28011 28281 28413 40-44 2951 5385 11562 21086 27801 27813 28317 28427 45-49 2526 4516 9554 19062 26879 28292 28431 28400 50-54 2183 3485 7871 17065 25615 28505 28397 28266 55-59 1810 2632 6609 15243 23925 28167 28044 28024 60-64 1438 2146 5430 12926 21787 27358 27346 27766 65-69 1071 1703 4317 10143 19381 26330 26842 27556 70-74 773 1217 3174 7736 16679 24693 26782 27260 75, 780 1263 3350 10932 30638 56373 75242 81161 TOTAL 73911 116139 215955 330568 421126 475245 497139 504718 BIRTH RATE 38.5 30.1 21.4 15.4 13.0 12.1 11.8 DEATH RATE 8.7 5.8 4.9 6.1 8.5 10.5 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.00 2.46 1.68 .94 .45 .15 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.406 3.900 2.713 2.118 2.069 2.063 2.061 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 62.90 69.64 75.93 79.99 82.49 84.46 85.26 IMR - BOTH SEXES ?1.3 38.9 13.0 5.9 3.8 2.4 2.2 B DanK RBGION AND COUNnTY DDPARTMDrT MIDDLE EAST AND NORM AMJCA NONBORROWERS Population ProJection (thousands) AGEOROUP 195 1990 1195 20am 2005 2010 201S 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N4f 5s5 14 l0 695 9"4 10519 11307 12092 12844 13552 NALES 0-4 33 422 11 530 521 524 S39 5U 544 539 5-9 362 91 49 510 52U 516 s22 537 546 543 10-14 335 362 419 456 5" 525 516 521 536 546 15-19 28 75 390 419 456 50 S23 515 519 535 20-24 2S5 6w 390 416 4ss 503 520 513 517 25-29 223 3 3*5 3J 366 412 450 499 517 510 30-34 19s 22 319 360 366 363 409 467 496 515 35-39 171 197 27 319 356 32 380 406 444 494 40-44 122 171 229 20 5 352 376 377 403 441 45-49 114 1n 168 324 2a5 310 348 374 372 398 S0-S4 104 111 12 164 221 260 304 341 367 365 55-59 91 t9 111 123 178 214 251 295 331 357 60-64 a5 a 95 104 116 169 204 240 283 318 65-69 64 76 76 66 96 107 158 191 226 266 70-74 60 53 46 67 75 64 9s 142 174 205 754 71 es 67 96 109 121 137 158 211 277 TOTAL 29f2 327 4099 4534 490 5321 5717 6109 6482 6827 FENALES 0-4 3 4m 492 5w 499 502 S16 524 520 514 5-9 341 371 443 491 505 496 S00 514 522 519 10-14 314 341 400 *43 469 504 495 499 513 522 15-19 269 315 3s 400 "42 416 503 494 498 513 20-24 23 m 34 37 m 4O 466 501 493 497 25-29 212 3 341 375 371 35 438 484 500 492 30-34 203 214 290 341 373 369 393 436 483 499 35-39 179 20 249 290 339 370 367 391 434 481 40-44 126 179 246 267 337 368 365 389 432 05-49 119 125 la? 221 246 285 334 365 362 387 50-S4 107 117 12J 1S4 217 243 281 330 361 359 55-59 102 104 116 125 160 213 238 276 325 356 60-"4 97 a7 101 111 120 175 207 232 270 318 6-69 70 91 92 95 105 114 168 200 225 262 70-74 71 62 62 85 ar 97 106 157 189 214 7S+ 64 905 114 135 154 170 189 213 277 359 TOTAL 2903 32S6 004 4424 4813 S190 5590 5982 6363 6725 1IRTH MTE 2V.6 27.1 2S.0 22.3 20.7 19.7 18.6 17.3 16.1 DEATH RATE 7.0 6.3 S.6 52 S.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.07 2.0 1.94 1.72 1.56 .46 1.35 1.21 1.07 MET NIGEATION MATE 1.3 22. .7 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 -.1 .0 GRaUN RATE 2.20 4.3 LO2 1.46 1.53 1.44 1.34 1.21 1.07 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.7LM 3.476 3.121 2.6W 2.67 2.S51 2.410 2.269 2.175 ORR 1.756 1.2 1.44S 1.341 1.2V3 1.217 1.151 1.086 1.045 *(O) - 3TH OM 72.13 73.39 74.61 75.72 76.40 77.15 77.96 78.83 79.7n 6(1S) - OmT W$ 59.74 60S.40 61.4 2.34 62.S 6.46 64.09 64.76 65.49 INN - 0Tn am2E1 31.9 2.3 22.6 19 17.7 15.3 12.7 10.1 7.6 q(S) - STi 0 .06u 3 .035r .02M .0256 .0230 .0199 0166 .0133 .0100 DEP. RATIO 76.9 7n.6 66.7 64.3 .6 ss.7 S3.5 53.3 53.6 54.3 BANK REGION AND COUNTRY DEPARTMENTS 6S Su&mry Projection MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA NONBORROWERS AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 5835 8956 12844 15725 17190 17693 17918 18028 MALES 0-4 393 530 544 540 537 537 537 537 5-9 362 510 56 537 536 536 537 537 10-14 335 458 536 532 535 536 537 537 15-19 287 419 519 531 536 537 536 536 20-24 255 390 513 535 537 536 535 535 25-29 223 389 517 538 536 534 534 534 30-34 196 360 496 539 532 531 532 532 35-39 171 319 444 526 524 528 531 531 40-44 122 270 403 507 S22 527 529 529 45-49 114 226 372 497 522 526 526 526 50-54 104 184 367 496 520 520 520 521 55-59 91 123 331 466 511 509 510 512 60-64 85 104 283 404 486 490 498 501 65-69 63 86 226 349 449 470 481 485 70-74 60 67 174 299 411 44 455 459 75+ 71 9B 211 555 827 974 1033 1064 TOTAL 2932 4534 6482 7853 8521 8736 8830 8877 FEMALES 0-4 372 508 520 516 513 512 512 512 5-9 341 491 522 513 511 512 512 512 10-14 314 443 513 S08 511 512 512 512 15-19 269 400 498 508 512 513 512 512 20-24 234 374 493 512 514 513 512 512 25-29 212 375 S00 517 514 512 511 512 30-34 203 341 483 519 511 S10 511 511 35-39 179 290 434 s09 505 509 511 511 40-44 126 248 389 493 504 509 511 511 45-49 119 221 362 486 507 510 510 510 50-54 107 184 361 489 509 509 508 508 55-59 102 125 325 467 507 503 504 506 60-64 97 111 270 414 492 494 500 503 65-69 70 95 225 364 468 487 496 500 70-74 71 83 189 327 b49 480 490 493 75+ 84 135 277 731 1141 1374 1475 1525 TOTAL 2903 4424 6363 7872 8569 8957 9088 9150 BIRTH RATE 26.5 19.5 14.7 12.7 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.2 5.1 6.7 9.2 10.9 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 8.2 -.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.86 1."4 .81 .36 .12 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.419 2.532 2.101 2.064 2.060 2.057 2.056 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 73.51 77.32 80.85 83.02 84.36 85.44 85.87 INR - BOTH SEXES 27.0 15.1 6.0 3.6 2.7 2.1 2.0 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 68 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES; AND TERRITORIES ALBANU Projection (thousands) with NRR=l by 2005 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 2962 3250 3516 3766 4000 4237 4475 4705 4917 5109 MALES 0-4 183 198 192 183 174 176 184 187 185 181 5-9 174 181 195 191 182 173 176 184 186 184 10-14 162 173 180 194 190 182 173 176 183 186 15-19 159 160 172 178 193 189 181 172 175 183 20-24 155 157 158 170 177 192 189 181 172 175 25-29 135 152 153 155 168 176 191 18 180 171 30-34 104 133 149 151 154 167 175 190 187 179 35-39 81 102 130 147 149 153 166 174 189 186 40-44 73 79 100 128 145 148 151 165 173 188 45-49 68 71 77 98 126 143 146 150 163 171 50-54 55 65 69 75 95 123 140 143 147 160 55-59 46 52 62 66 72 92 119 136 139 143 60-64 31 42 48 58 62 68 87 113 129 133 65-69 27 28 38 43 53 57 63 80 105 121 70-74 22 23 23 32 37 45 49 55 71 94 75+ 22 26 30 33 42 52 65 77 88 110 TOTAL 1497 1642 1776 1902 2019 2137 2255 2369 2473 2565 FEMLES 0-4 178 187 182 174 164 167 174 176 174 171 5-9 169 176 185 181 173 164 167 174 176 174 10-14 155 168 175 184 180 172 164 166 174 176 15-19 149 154 166 173 183 180 172 164 166 174 20-24 145 147 151 164 172 183 180 172 164 166 25-29 128 143 144 149 163 172 183 179 172 163 30-34 100 126 140 142 148 162 172 182 179 171 35-39 78 99 124 139 141 148 162 171 182 179 40-U 70 76 97 122 138 140 147 161 170 181 45-49 66 69 75 96 121 136 139 146 160 169 50-54 54 65 68 74 95 120 135 138 144 159 55-59 51 53 63 67 73 93 118 133 136 142 60-64 35 49 51 61 64 70 90 115 130 133 65-69 31 32 46 48 58 61 67 87 111 126 70-74 27 27 29 41 44 53 57 63 82 105 75+ 30 37 43 49 64 77 94 109 126 155 TOTAL 1465 1608 1740 1864 1981 2100 2219 2336 2444 2544 BIRTH RATE 25.7 23.0 20.2 17.8 17.0 16.7 16.0 15.1 14.1 DEATH RATE 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.5 S.8 6.0 6.2 6.5 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.99 1.75 1.48 1.25 1.15 1.09 1.00 .88 .76 NET NIGRATION RATE -1.3 -1.8 -1.1 -.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.86 1.58 1.37 1.20 1.15 1.09 1.00 .88 .76 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.160 2.808 2.495 2.218 2.115 2.106 2.098 2.089 2.080 NRR 1.467 1.303 1.167 1.044 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 71.66 72.78 73.97 75.22 76.14 77.08 78.06 79.08 80.12 015) - BOTH SEXES 59.48 60.82 61.50 62.31 62.93 63.56 64.23 64.92 65.63 IUR - BOTH SEXES 28.2 30.0 24.7 20.0 16.9 13.7 10.5 7.3 4.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0348 .0370 .0302 .0245 .0208 .0170 .0132 .0094 .0056 DEP. RATIO 66.1 62.9 59.9 56.0 51.5 48.3 47.1 48.3 51.0 53.6 COUNTRnL, BMNOS31, AND TMURTORIES 69 Suwmary Projection for 25-Year Period ALBANIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2a2m 20M0 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 2962 376 4917 651 5907 600 059 6067 MALES 0-4 183 1U3 185 163 162 12 162 162 5-9 174 191 166 183 162 162 162 182 10-14 162 194 163 181 181 102 182 182 15-19 159 178 175 179 181 112 182 16 20-24 155 170 172 ISO 182 n2 101 181 25-29 135 1SS 160 163 162 181 181 161 30-34 104 151 lr 164 l61 160 1SO 1SO 35-39 81 147 189 160 178 179 160 16O 40-44 73 128 173 172 176 179 179 179 45-49 68 96 163 167 176 17 178 178 50-54 55 75 147 1n 177 177 177 176 55-59 46 66 139 176 l17 173 1n 174 60-64 31 s5 129 1n 167 167 169 170 65-69 27 43 105 150 153 159 163 165 70-74 22 32 71 130 139 15 1s5 1S6 75+ 22 33 68 223 316 340 355 363 TOTAL 1497 1902 24n 2617 2929 2973 2996 3011 FEMALES 0-4 178 174 17n 173 172 172 172 172 5-9 169 181 176 172 172 172 172 172 10-14 155 184 174 17 1 172 172 172 15-19 149 73 166 169 171 172 172 172 20-24 145 164 16 171 172 172 172 172 25-29 128 149 172 174 173 172 172 172 30-34 100 142 179 175 172 17 171 17 35-39 78 139 1i2 173 170 17 171 171 40-44 70 122 170 165 168 7l1 7l1 1m1 45-49 66 96 160 161 169 171 11 1 50-54 54 74 144 166 171 171 171 170 55-59 51 67 136 174 172 170 169 170 60-64 35 61 130 174 16S 1" 168 169 65-69 31 48 111 160 156 163 167 168 70-74 27 41 82 145 151 161 165 166 75+ 30 49 126 309 44 464 506 S18 TOTAL 1465 1664 2444 2835 2976 3030 3061 3076 BIRTH RATE 22.8 16.5 13.3 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.5 5.6 7.6 10.4 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET N!GRATION RATE -1.4 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.60 1.07 .56 .16 .06 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.803 2.123 2.077 2.072 2.069 2.066 2.067 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 72.87 77.22 81.25 63.41 4.60 65.48 15.U4 IMR - BOTH SEXES 27.7 13.6 3.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 70 COuNTRiES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrToRIES ALGERIA Projection (thouuands) with NRR=1 by 2020 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 21848 25056 28995 33135 37n27 41209 44959 48411 51815 55235 MALES 0-4 2028 1957 2322 2431 2415 2398 2325 2228 2270 2353 5-9 1707 1987 1927 2296 2410 2397 2384 2315 2222 2266 10-14 1497 1699 1980 1921 2290 2405 2393 2381 2312 2220 15-19 1269 1489 1692 1973 1915 2283 2398 2387 2375 2308 20-L4 987 1260 1481 1684 1963 1907 2273 2388 2377 2366 25-29 822 979 1253 1473 1675 1953 1897 2261 2376 2365 30-34 588 814 97n 1245 1464 1665 1942 1886 2249 2364 35-39 368 581 806 964 1236 1454 1654 1930 1875 2236 40-44 364 362 573 797 955 1224 1441 1640 1913 1860 45-49 345 355 355 S63 785 940 1206 1420 1617 1888 50-54 224 332 344 344 548 765 917 1178 1389 1583 55-59 222 211 315 328 330 526 735 883 1136 1342 60-64 187 203 194 292 306 309 495 693 835 1077 65-69 141 164 179 173 262 276 280 450 634 767 70-74 121 114 134 148 145 222 236 241 389 552 75+ 132 140 145 167 198 214 282 338 372 510 TOTAL 11003 12649 14672 16798 18897 20938 22857 24619 26342 28056 FENALES 0-4 1862 1879 2227 2329 2311 2292 2219 2124 2161 2238 5-9 1593 1827 1854 2204 2311 2296 2280 2210 2118 2157 10-14 1398 1587 1822 1849 2200 2307 2 2 2277 2208 2117 15-19 1181 1390 1580 1816 1845 2196 2303 2289 2274 2205 20-24 921 1171 1381 1573 1810 1839 2190 2297 2284 2270 25-29 771 911 1161 1373 1566 1803 1833 2183 2291 2279 30-34 612 762 902 1153 1366 1559 1796 1826 2176 2285 35-39 436 603 753 895 1146 1358 1551 1787 1819 2168 40-44 427 429 595 744 886 1136 1348 1540 1776 1808 45-49 396 418 421 586 735 876 1123 1333 1525 1760 50-54 323 385 408 411 574 721 860 1105 1313 1504 55-59 248 310 371 394 399 558 702 839 1080 1286 60-64 212 233 293 352 376 382 535 676 810 1045 65-69 159 191 211 268 325 349 356 502 637 768 70-74 138 132 161 180 232 285 309 319 454 581 75+ 167 177 183 208 247 315 404 484 547 708 TOTAL 10845 12407 14323 16337 18330 20271 22101 23792 25473 27179 BIRTH RATE 35.7 36.2 32.5 28.2 24.9 21.8 19.1 18.0 17.3 DEATH RATE 8.3 7.0 5.8 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.74 2.92 2.67 2.33 2.03 1.74 1.48 1.36 1.28 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.74 2.92 2.67 2.33 2.03 1.74 1.48 1.36 1.28 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.500 4.820 4.140 3.460 2.989 2.583 2.232 2.105 2.085 NRR 2.335 2.112 1.858 1.581 1.380 1.204 1.050 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 63.97 66.37 68.63 70.76 71.96 73.19 74.47 75.78 77.14 WS) - BOTH SEXES 56.44 57.52 58.70 59.92 60.47 61.04 61.65 62.27 62.93 INR - BOTH SEXES 74.0 61.5 50.8 41.4 34.5 27.5 20.6 13.6 6.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0981 .0795 .0644 .0519 .0433 .0346 .0260 .0173 .0086 OEP. RATIO 100.4 89.8 82.9 74.8 70.1 61.9 54.0 48.8 46.0 45.4 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 71 Swury Projection for 25-Year Periods ALGERIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 21848 33135 51815 66539 73915 75828 76959 M17 MALES 0-4 2028 2431 2270 2293 2310 2315 2314 2313 5-9 1707 2296 2222 2302 2318 2316 2313 2312 10-14 1497 1921 2312 2338 2328 2316 2311 2311 15-19 1269 1973 2375 2364 2322 2309 2308 2309 20-24 987 1684 2377 2338 2298 2300 2304 2306 25-29 822 1473 2376 2244 2275 2295 2301 0301 30-34 5W 1245 2249 2190 2277 2297 2297 2295 35-39 368 964 1875 2268 2304 2299 2290 2288 40-44 364 797 1913 2317 2318 2284 2276 2277 45-49 345 563 1617 2302 2279 2249 2257 2264 50-54 224 344 1389 2268 2163 2206 2234 2244 55-59 222 328 1136 2096 2071 2174 2206 2212 60-64 187 m 835 1683 2084 2148 2162 2163 65-69 141 173 634 1617 2035 2082 2078 2084 70-74 121 148 389 1239 1880 1926 1940 1966 75. 132 167 372 1678 3546 4043 4406 4571 TOTAL 11003 16798 26342 33536 36806 37558 37999 38217 FEMALES 0-4 1862 2329 2161 2184 2201 2206 2206 2205 5-9 1593 2204 2118 2191 2209 2208 2205 2204 10-14 1398 1849 2208 2225 2218 2207 2204 2203 15-19 1181 1816 2274 2250 2213 2202 2202 2203 20-24 921 1573 2284 2228 2193 2196 2201 2203 25-29 771 1373 2291 2147 2176 2196 2202 2203 30-34 612 1153 2176 2103 2182 2203 2203 2202 35-39 436 895 1819 2187 2211 2208 2201 2199 40-44 427 744 1776 2245 2231 2200 2193 2194 45-49 396 586 1525 2243 2201 2175 2183 2190 50-54 323 411 1313 2229 2109 2149 2177 2187 55-59 248 394 1080 2088 2046 2142 2174 2180 60-64 212 352 810 1707 2099 2151 2466 2167 65-69 159 268 637 1611 2110 2141 2138 2143 70-74 138 180 454 1305 2034 2066 2081 2106 75+ 167 208 547 2060 4677 5620 6224 6511 TOTAL 10845 16337 25473 33003 37109 38270 38960 39300 BIRTH RATE 34.7 21.9 15.4 12.8 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.9 4.5 5.5 8.7 11.1 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.78 1.79 1.00 .42 .10 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.723 2.602 2.078 2.066 2.062 2.059 2.058 o(O) - BOTH SEXES 66.54 73.45 78.78 81.91 83.69 85.04 85.58 INR - BOTH SEXES 61.4 27.9 5.4 3.3 2.6 2.2 2.1 72 COUNTIES, ECONOMIS AND JERRYRIES AR MNIE A Projectlon (thousedt) with NRR-1 by 19S AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL rF 3198 3325 3445 3606 3781 3954 4120 4268 4404 4528 MALES 0-4 l87 171 142 136 148 156 159 154 149 148 5-9 167 lei 167 142 137 148 15s 159 154 149 10-14 145 162 178 167 142 IN 147 157 159 154 15-19 140 140 160 I77 166 141 137 147 157 159 20-24 134 132 135 159 I77 165 141 136 146 156 25-29 156 124 126 134 15 176 165 140 136 146 30-34 138 147 116 125 134 1s5 175 164 139 135 35-39 101 131 142 11? 124 133 156 174 163 139 40-44 61 96 127 141 116 123 131 154 172 162 45-49 64 5s 90 125 139 114 121 130 153 170 50-54 82 60 55 90 121 135 112 119 127 150 55-59 72 76 56 52 66 116 130 108 115 23 60-64 60 66 70 52 49 80 109 123 102 110 65-69 21 52 N, 61 46 4 73 100 113 95 70-74 14 17 42 47 51 39 37 63 88 101 75+ 26 21 22 42 so 69 67 65 86 122 TOTAL 1567 1633 1691 1769 1850 1935 2017 2092 2159 2219 FEMALES 0-4 177 16 136 132 142 151 152 147 142 142 5-9 158 171 16o 136 132 141 151 152 147 142 10-14 138 154 169 160 136 132 141 151 152 147 15-19 129 133 151 16B 160 136 132 141 150 152 20-24 138 120 128 151 168 160 136 131 141 150 25-29 163 127 115 128 151 168 159 135 131 141 30-34 145 154 123 114 127 150 167 159 135 131 35-39 108 139 151 122 114 127 IS0 167 159 135 40-44 66 104 136 1SO 122 113 127 149 166 158 45-49 69 63 102 135 149 121 113 126 149 166 50-54 88 67 62 101 133 147 120 112 125 147 55-59 77 as 65 61 99 131 145 118 110 123 60-4 72 73 81 63 59 97 128 142 116 108 65-69 33 66 69 77 60 S5 93 124 138 113 70-74 26 28 59 63 72 56 53 88 1l8 132 75+ 46 44 46 79 107 132 135 133 164 221 TOTAL 1631 1693 1754 1840 1930 2019 2102 2176 2245 no10 BIRTH RATE 21.4 17.0 15.6 15.9 16.2 15.6 14.5 13.S 13.1 DEATH RATE 6.8 6.4 6.3 6.6 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.46 1.06 .93 .93 .90 .82 .71 .63 .56 NET MIGRATION RATE -6.7 -3.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .78 .71 .92 .9 .89 .82 .71 .62 .56 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.574 2.225 2.099 2.091 2.086 2.0B0 2.075 L070 2.065 NRR 1.215 1.055 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 .(0) - BOTH SEXES 71.47 73.06 74.5 76.00 76.86 77.74 76.t6 79.62 80.61 0(15) - BOTH SEXES 58.67 59.99 61.22 62.40 63.06 63.79 6.52 65.29 66.10 INR - BOTH SEXES 21.7 16.2 15.1 12.4 10.7 9.0 7.3 5.6 3.9 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0263 .0223 .0186 .0153 .0134 .0114 .0094 .0074 .0054 DEP. RATIO 55.1 58.8 56.9 52.6 48.3 47.0 49.7 53.9 57.7 58.3 COUN7RIES, ECONOMI1S. AND TERRITORIES 73 sumnary Projection for 25-Year Periods AR1W1ENIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 215( TOTAL M+F 3198 3608 4404 4839 4976 5056 5103 5126 MALES 0-4 187 138 149 153 153 152 152 152 5-9 167 142 154 154 153 152 152 152 10-14 145 167 159 154 152 152 152 152 15-19 140 177 157 151 151 152 152 152 20-24 134 159 146 148 151 152 152 152 25-29 156 134 136 148 151 152 152 151 30-34 138 125 139 152 153 151 151 151 35-39 101 117 163 156 152 150 150 151 40-44 61 141 172 153 148 149 150 150 45-49 64 125 153 142 144 148 149 149 50-54 82 90 127 130 143 147 148 148 55-59 72 52 115 131 44 146 146 146 60-64 60 52 102 148 145 142 142 142 65-69 21 61 113 148 136 134 136 137 70-74 14 47 so 121 118 123 128 130 75, 26 42 86 188 246 280 296 304 TOTAL 1567 1769 2159 2377 2440 2482 2507 2519 FENALES 0-4 177 132 142 146 146 146 145 145 5-9 158 136 147 147 146 145 145 145 10-14 138 160 152 147 145 145 145 145 15-19 129 168 150 144 144 145 145 145 20-24 138 151 141 142 144 145 145 145 25-29 163 128 131 142 145 146 145 145 30-34 145 114 135 147 147 146 145 145 35-39 108 122 159 151 147 145 145 145 40-44 66 150 166 149 144 144 144 145 45-49 69 135 149 139 140 143 145 145 50-54 88 101 125 129 140 144 145 144 55-59 77 61 110 132 144 145 144 144 60-64 72 63 116 153 148 144 143 143 65-69 33 77 138 158 144 140 141 142 70-74 26 63 118 137 132 135 139 140 75+ 46 79 164 298 380 418 435 442 TOTAL 1631 1840 2245 2462 2536 2574 2596 2606 BIRTH RATE 17.9 15.1 12.6 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.5 7.2 9.1 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GRO4TH RATE .80 .80 .38 .11 .06 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.299 2.080 2.063 2.059 2.058 2.056 2.056 eCO) - BTH SEXES 73.08 77.85 81.66 83.67 84.76 85.58 85.92 INR - BOTH SEXES 18.6 9.0 3.4 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 74 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TBRRfRIES AUSTRIA Projection (thousands) with NRRPu by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 l990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 7555 7712 7803 7840 7869 7862 7846 7827 7795 7745 MALES 0-4 232 232 228 212 206 203 205 207 208 210 5-9 220 237 234 226 211 205 203 204 207 208 10-14 256 224 239 234 227 211 20S 203 204 207 15-19 319 260 225 239 234 227 211 205 202 204 20-24 334 325 262 225 238 233 226 210 205 202 25-29 295 342 327 261 224 237 232 225 209 204 30-34 253 303 343 326 260 223 236 231 224 209 35-39 255 258 303 342 324 259 222 235 230 223 40-44 261 257 257 301 339 322 257 220 233 228 45-49 230 259 254 254 297 335 318 254 218 231 50-54 199 225 253 249 249 291 329 313 250 215 55-59 199 190 216 244 241 241 283 320 305 244 60-64 170 184 178 204 232 229 231 272 308 294 65-69 99 150 166 162 188 215 214 217 256 292 70-74 120 82 127 143 142 166 192 193 197 235 75+ 160 168 149 175 213 236 271 318 351 376 TOTAL 3602 3697 3761 3797 3825 3835 3834 3826 3809 3783 FEMALES 0-4 221 220 216 201 195 192 194 196 197 198 5-9 208 227 m 216 200 195 192 194 196 197 10-14 243 212 228 223 216 200 195 192 194 196 15-19 301 248 214 228 223 216 200 195 192 194 20-24 324 311 251 215 228 222 216 200 194 192 25-29 293 335 315 252 214 228 222 215 200 194 30-34 251 301 338 315 251 214 227 222 215 199 35-39 248 256 302 338 314 251 214 227 221 215 40-44 258 250 256 301 336 M3 250 213 226 221 45-49 227 257 249 254 299 335 311 249 212 225 50-54 201 225 254 246 252 297 332 309 247 211 55-59 224 197 221 250 243 249 293 328 306 245 60-64 257 217 192 215 245 238 244 289 323 302 65-69 157 243 207 184 208 238 232 239 282 317 70-74 201 143 225 194 175 198 227 222 230 273 75+ 340 373 351 410 443 441 462 512 549 582 TOTAL 3953 4015 4042 4043 4044 4027 4011 4001 3986 3962 BIRTH RATE 11.8 11.5 10.6 10.3 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.4 10.6 DEATH RATE 11.0 10.4 9.9 9.6 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.3 11.8 RATE OF NAT. INC. .08 .11 .07 .07 -.02 -.04 -.05 -.08 -.13 NET MIGRATION RATE 3.3 1.3 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .41 .24 .10 .07 -.02 -.04 -.05 -.08 -.13 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.601 1.698 1.790 1.877 1.960 2.039 NRR .717 .718 .719 .769 .817 .862 .905 .946 .985 o(0) - BOTH SEXES 75.09 76.59 77.93 79.11 79.74 80.39 81.06 81.75 82.46 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 61.22 62.54 63.75 64.83 65.40 65.98 66.58 67.20 67.84 INR - BOTH SEXES 9.9 8.1 6.8 5.9 5.3 4.7 4.2 3.6 3.0 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0123 .0102 .0087 .0077 .0070 .0063 .0057 .0050 .0043 DEP. RATIO 48.2 48.3 49.7 49.1 50.1 52.4 55.2 58.7 65.1 74.0 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES AND TERRITORIES 7S Summary Projection for 25-Year Perlods AUSTRIA AGE GROUP 1985 20Q0 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 7555 7840 7795 7297 6912 6901 6938 6959 MALES 0-4 232 212 208 207 207 207 207 207 5-9 220 228 207 206 207 207 207 207 10-14 256 234 204 206 207 207 207 207 15-19 319 239 202 207 207 207 207 207 20-24 334 225 205 209 207 207 206 207 25-29 295 261 209 207 206 206 206 206 30-34 253 326 224 205 204 205 205 206 35-39 255 342 230 201 203 205 205 205 40-44 261 301 233 199 204 204 204 204 45-49 230 254 218 209 204 203 203 203 50-54 199 249 250 202 201 200 201 201 55-59 199 244 305 213 196 196 198 198 60-64 170 204 308 212 188 191 193 194 65-69 99 162 256 206 179 186 187 188 70-74 120 143 197 180 170 177 177 178 75+ 160 175 351 498 409 397 410 417 TOTAL 3602 3797 3809 3559 3399 3405 3424 3435 FEMALES 0-4 221 201 197 196 196 196 196 196 5-9 208 216 196 195 196 196 196 196 10-14 243 223 194 195 196 196 196 196 15-19 301 228 192 197 197 196 196 196 20-24 324 215 194 198 197 196 196 196 25-29 293 252 200 197 196 196 196 196 30-34 251 315 215 195 195 195 196 196 35-39 248 338 221 193 194 196 196 196 40-44 258 301 226 191 196 196 196 196 45-49 227 254 212 193 197 196 195 195 50-54 201 246 247 197 195 194 194 195 55-59 224 250 306 211 193 193 194 194 60-64 257 215 323 215 189 191 193 193 65-69 157 184 282 217 185 191 192 192 70-74 201 194 230 199 184 190 190 190 75+ 340 410 549 750 609 578 591 600 TOTAL 3953 4043 3986 3738 3513 3496 3513 3523 BIRTH RATE 11.3 10.3 10.7 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 10.5 10.5 13.3 13.7 11.8 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .25 -.02 -.26 -.22 -.01 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.514 1.m 2.062 2.066 2.065 2. N4 2.064 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.55 80.41 83.16 84.53 85.28 85.83 86.06 INR BOTH SEXES 8.3 4.7 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 76 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES AND TERRITORMES AZERBAIJAN Projection (thousands) with NRQul by 2000 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 6669 7149 7540 79M7 8425 8B87 9359 9804 10213 10584 MALES 0-4 422 442 376 337 342 370 387 383 369 360 5-9 370 410 433 375 336 340 369 386 382 368 10-14 331 362 403 43 374 335 340 368 386 382 15-19 347 323 355 402 430 373 335 339 367 385 20-24 314 332 311 352 399 428 371 333 338 366 25-29 319 295 316 303 350 397 425 369 331 336 30-34 258 301 281 313 305 347 394 423 366 329 35-39 180 244 289 278 310 303 346 391 420 364 40-44 106 169 234 285 274 307 299 341 387 416 45-49 117 99 161 228 279 269 301 295 336 382 50-54 161 110 94 155 221 270 261 293 288 329 55-59 130 150 103 a8 147 210 258 250 282 278 60-64 92 117 136 93 81 136 195 242 236 268 65-69 38 79 101 117 82 71 121 176 220 217 70-74 23 29 62 80 94 67 59 102 151 191 75+ 44 35 35 60 87 112 108 99 130 193 TOTAL 3252 3498 3689 3904 4111 4335 4567 4789 49W8 5165 FEMALES 0-4 397 4.25 362 324 328 354 371 367 353 344 5-9 351 386 417 360 323 327 354 370 366 353 10-14 316 343 380 416 360 323 327 353 370 366 15-19 312 307 336 380 416 360 323 326 353 370 20-24 339 296 295 336 379 415 359 322 326 353 25-29 352 320 282 294 335 379 414 359 322 325 30-34 275 337 308 281 293 334 378 414 358 321 35-39 190 264 329 307 280 m 333 377 413 357 40-44 114 183 258 32? 306 279 291 332 375 411 45-49 127 110 179 256 324 304 277 289 330 374 50-54 I7? 123 107 17T 253 321 300 274 287 327 55-59 141 171 120 105 174 249 316 296 271 283 60-64 114 134 164 116 102 169 243 309 290 266 65-69 65 105 126 lSS 111 98 163 235 300 283 70-74 49 57 94 114 144 103 92 154 223 287 75+ 98 89 94 135 186 246 251 238 288 399 TOTAL 3417 3652 3850 4083 4314 4552 4791 5015 5225 5419 BIRTH RATE 26.2 20.9 17.4 16.6 17.0 16.8 15.8 14.5 13.6 DEATH RATE 6.8 6.1 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.5 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.94 1.47 1.15 1.07 1.07 1.04 .93 .82 .71 NET MIGRATION RATE -5.5 -4.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROHTH RATE 1.39 1.06 1.15 1.07 1.07 1.03 .93 .82 .71 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.903 2.535 2.214 2.097 2.091 2.085 2.078 2.072 2.066 NRR 1.362 1.196 1.051 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 etO) - BOTH SEXES 70.04 71.61 73.15 74.61 75.54 76.51 77.51 78.56 79.66 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 57.80 58.96 60.13 61.29 62.01 62.76 63.54 64.37 65.23 IMR - BOTH SEXES 27.9 23.3 19.2 15.7 13.5 11.3 9.0 6.8 4.6 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0335 .0279 .0230 .0190 .0164 .0139 .0113 .0088 .0062 DE,. RATIO 60.1 63.0 61.9 57.2 48.9 44.7 45.8 49.2 53.0 54.7 COUNIRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrMTRIES 77 Sumary Projectfon for 25-Year Period& AZERBA IAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 200 3 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 6669 7s6r 10213 116t 12031 12253. 12382 12444 HALES 0-4 422 33? 369 373 372 370 370 370 5-9 370 37S 362 375 370 369 370 370 10-14 331 432 366 370 368 369 370 370 15-19 347 402 367 362 366 369 370 370 20-24 314 352 338 358 368 370 369 369 25-29 319 308 331 365 370 369 368 368 30-34 258 313 366 5m 371 367 366 367 35-39 160 276 420 376 365 363 365 366 40-44 106 265 367 356 355 360 364 365 45-49 117 228 336 327 349 360 363 363 50-54 161 lSS 266 316 352 359 359 359 55-59 130 as 262 342 356 354 352 353 60-64 92 93 236 377 348 340 342 345 65-69 36 117 220 327 315 319 328 333 70-74 23 60 151 256 267 25 310 316 75 60 130 397 53 666 710 731 TOTAL 3252 3904 496 5659 584 6000 6076 6113 FEMALES 0-4 397 324 353 357 355 353 353 353 5-9 351 360 366 35 354 353 353 353 10-14 316 416 370 354 351 352 353 353 15-19 312 360 353 36 350 353 353 353 20-24 339 336 326 344 352 354 353 353 25-29 352 294 322 352 356 354 353 353 30-34 275 281 356 365 35? 353 352 352 35-39 190 307 413 366 353 350 351 352 40-44 114 327 375 350 345 349 351 352 45-49 127 256 330 322 341 350 352 352 50-54 177 177 287 316 348 353 352 351 55-59 141 105 271 349 359 353 349 349 60-64 114 116 2I0 396 359 346 345 347 65-69 65 15S 300 355 337 335 341 345 70-74 49 114 223 303 304 326 338 342 75+ 9g 135 26 664 936 1019 1055 1073 TOTAL 3417 4063 5225 922 6157 6253 6306 6332 BIRTH RATE 21.3 16.1 13.2 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.2 6.3 6.2 10.7 11.2 11.4 11.5 MET MIGRATION RATE -3.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GRWITH RATE 1.20 .96 .50 .15 .07 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.564 2.064 2.066 2.060 Z.05S 2.057 2.056 *C0) - BOTH SEXES 71.66 76.65 80.86 63.23 64.51 85.45 85.83 INR - BOTH SEXES 23.9 11.2 3.9 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 78 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES BAHRAIN Projection (thousands) with NRR=i by 2030 AGE GROUP 195 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 425 503 585 663 739 815 894 970 1037 1095 MALES 0-4 29 39 41 42 44 48 51 51 49 46 5-9 21 29 39 41 42 44 47 51 51 49 10-14 19 21 29 39 41 42 44 47 50 51 15-19 17 20 22 30 39 41 42 44 47 50 20-24 19 19 21 22 30 39 41 42 44 47 25-29 31 21 20 22 23 30 39 41 42 43 30-34 36 32 22 21 22 23 29 39 41 41 35-39 25 37 33 23 21 22 22 29 38 40 40-44 15 26 37 33 23 21 22 22 29 38 45-49 12 16 25 36 33 22 21 21 22 29 50-54 8 11 15 25 36 32 22 20 21 21 55-59 5 7 '1 15 24 34 31 21 19 20 60-64 3 4 7 10 13 22 32 29 20 18 65-69 2 3 4 6 9 12 20 29 26 18 70-74 1 2 2 3 5 7 10 17 25 23 75+ 2 2 2 2 4 6 9 13 21 32 TOTAL 246 288 331 371 408 444 481 515 545 569 FEMALES 0-4 28 37 39 40 42 46 48 48 46 44 5-9 22 28 38 40 41 42 45 48 48 46 10-14 20 22 29 38 40 40 42 45 48 48 15-19 18 20 22 29 38 40 40 42 45 48 20-24 17 18 21 23 29 38 40 40 42 45 25-29 18 17 19 21 23 29 38 40 40 42 30-34 15 18 18 19 21 23 29 38 39 40 35-39 10 15 18 18 19 21 23 29 37 39 40-44 7 10 15 18 18 19 21 23 28 37 45-49 6 7 10 15 18 17 19 21 22 28 50-54 5 6 7 10 15 18 17 18 20 22 55-59 4 5 6 7 9 14 1 17 18 20 60-64 3 4 5 5 6 9 14 17 16 18 65-69 2 3 3 4 5 6 8 13 16 16 70-74 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 a 12' 15 75+ 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 11 18 TOTAL 179 215 253 292 331 371 413 454 492 526 BIRTH RATE 33.9 30.4 27.1 25.2 24.4 23.6 21.6 19.2 16.9 DEATH RATE 5.3 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.0 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.85 2.55 2.25 2.06 1.96 1.85 1.62 1.35 1.09 NET NIGRATION RATE 5.2 4.4 2.6 1.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.38 3.00 2.51 2.18 1.96 1.85 1.62 1.35 1.09 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.900 4.550 4.200 3.850 3.500 3.150 2.786 2.464 2.180 NRR 2.239 2.107 1.966 1.818 1.659 1.499 1.331 1.182 1.049 e0O) - BOTH SEXES 68.31 69.61 71.04 72.52 73.57 74.67 75.83 77.05 78.33 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 56.80 57.56 58.50 59.57 60.36 61.18 62.06 62.99 63.98 INR - BOTH SEXES 35.0 29.8 24.7 20.2 17.2 14.2 11.3 8.3 5.3 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0430 .0360 .0295 .0242 .0208 .0174 .0139 .0105 .0071 DEP. RATIO 54.5 60.4 65.3 65.3 61.0 58.9 60.5 64.0 64.0 58.8 COUNTRES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES 79 Sumary Projection for 25-Year Periods BAHRAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N4F 425 663 1037 131k 1513 1577 1598 1607 MALES 0-4 29 42 49 49 48 48 48 48 5-9 21 41 51 49 48 48 48 48 10-14 19 39 50 48 47 48 48 48 15-19 17 30 47 46 47 48 48 48 20-24 19 22 44 46 48 48 48 48 25-29 31 22 42 48 48 48 48 48 30-34 36 21 41 50 49 48 47 47 35-39 25 23 38 50 47 47 47 47 40-44 15 33 29 46 45 46 47 47 45-49 12 36 22 42 45 47 47 47 50-54 8 25 21 40 47 47 47 47 55-59 5 15 19 38 47 46 46 46 60-64 3 10 20 35 46 44 44 45 65-69 2 6 26 25 41 41 42 43 70-74 1 3 25 17 35 38 40 41 75+ 2 2 21 32 65 89 93 95 TOTAL 246 371 545 660 753 780 788 792 FEMALES 0-4 28 40 46 U 46 46 46 46 5-9 22 40 48 4. 46 46 46 46 10-14 20 38 48 46 45 45 46 46 15-19 18 29 45 44 45 46 46 46 20-24 17 23 42 44 45 46 46 46 25-29 18 21 40 46 46 46 46 46 30-34 15 19 39 48 47 46 45 46 35-39 10 18 37 48 6 45 45 46 40-44 7 l8 28 45 44 45 45 46 45-49 6 15 22 41 43 45 46 45 50-54 5 10 20 39 46 46 46 45 55-59 4 7 18 38 47 46 45 45 60-64 3 S 16 35 46 44 44 45 65-69 2 4 16 26 42 42 44 44 70-74 1 3 12 20 38 41 43 44 75+ 2 3 11 38 88 124 132 136 TOTAL 179 292 492 652 760 798 810 815 BIRTH RATE 30.1 22.5 15.9 13.2 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 4.9 5.2 6.6 7.5 10.4 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 3.9 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.96 1.79 .94 .57 .17 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.513 3.062 2.092 2.064 2.061 2.058 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 69.79 74.93 79.79 82.S5 84.08 85.23 85.70 flR - BOTH SEXES 29.7 14.1 4.5 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 80 COUNn , IECONOMS AND UORRITORIS BELARUS ProJ.ctiun (thsands) with NRR-I by 1990 AG GRO 1965 1990 199 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL NF 997 1027 1 10611 i106 11290 11502 11702 11904 12097 NALES 0-4 410 410 34 361 3M 397 399 395 390 39 5-9 3 400 409 313 380 3 396 399 395 390 10-14 36 32 409 400 313 319 366 396 398 394 15-19 349 36 91 407 407 3W 379 386 395 398 20-24 343 ? 360 so 405 405 380 37 384 394 25-29 424 340 3o 35? 3r5 402 402 378 375 382 30-34 411 420 53? 341 355 363 400 400 376 373 35-39 354 406 415 334 536 352 380 397 398 374 40-4 254 346 40 410 330 334 349 377 394 395 45-49 253 24a 340 39 402 324 329 344 372 389 50-54 29 243 23 328 30 390 316 321 336 365 55-59 27 m no 225 312 362 374 304 310 326 60.64 223 246 251 209 207 239 338 351 288 296 65-69 119 191 213 219 184 164 260 307 323 267 70-74 68 94 152 172 1O 154 156 224 268 286 7 124 0 107 160 210 244 246 251 314 399 TOTAL 4657 *a02 4977 5113 524 368 5490 5606 5716 S617 FEMALES 0l4 394 393 s6 364 371 379 362 378 373 372 5-9 380 394 392 367 364 370 379 381 377 373 10-14 354 S30 316 392 36? 364 370 379 381 377 15-19 34S5 354 3Jt 39 391 367 363 370 378 381 20-24 350 345 353 379 392 391 366 363 369 378 25-29 419 350 345 353 378 392 390 366 362 369 30-34 411 415 349 344 352 376 391 389 365 362 35-39 359 410 416 348 343 351 377 390 389 364 40-44 23 357 407 414 347r 341 350 376 369 386 45-49 27 260 354 44 411 345 340 348 374 387 50-54 340 m 257 349 40 406 342 337 345 371 55-59 345 339 267 252 344 395 402 337 333 342 60-64 34? 531 33 259 246 33? 367 395 332 328 65-69 234 324 313 313 250 236 327 377 386 325 7o-74 IS5 20 295 290 194 2136 226 312 362 372 75. 333 311 352 475 570 631 621 s5 672 79 TOTAL 5315 544 55 5 69 5622 5922 6011 6096 6187 6279 BIRTN RATE 16.1 14.7 14.1 14.0 14.0 15.6 13.4 13.0 12.7 DEATH RATE 10.3 9.5 9.2 9.3 10.0 10.1 ¶0.0 9.6 9.5 RATE OF AT. INCe. .56 .51 .50 .4 .40 .37 .35 .34 .32 NET NIGATIU tATE .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 COWUTH AATE .60 .51 .50 .47 .40 .3r .35 .34 .32 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.210 2.0cn 2.405 2.0L0 2.077 2.074 2.070 2.067 2.063 mRm 1.055 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0WD 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - 10TN SEXE$ 72.14 73.5 75.09 76.44 7r.25 7o.09 76.98 79.90 80.86 CtlS) - OTH EXEs 56.59 59.9 61.23 6U.43 63.14 63.9 64.67 65.48 66.33 INR * OTH *EXE 13.5 11.? 10.0 6.5 7.5 6.6 5.7 4.7 3.8 q(5) - OTH SEXEs .0166 .0145 .0124 .0107 .0096 .0085 .0074 .0064 .0053 OEP. RATIO 50.2 54.0 56.5~ 57.0 55.3 54.1 56.4 60.2 63.9 64.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRTRIES 81 Sumsry Projection for 25-Year Periods BELARUS AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 9975 108ll 11904 12543 12872 13057 13170 13226 MALES 0-4 410 381 390 393 393 393 393 393 5-9 393 383 395 394 393 393 393 393 10-14 364 408 398 394 392 392 392 393 15-19 349 407 395 390 391 392 392 392 20-24 343 388 384 387 390 392 392 392 25-29 424 357 375 386 390 391 391 391 30-34 411 341 376 390 390 390 389 390 35-39 354 334 396 392 388 388 388 388 40-44 254 410 394 386 383 385 386 387 45-49 253 392 3n 373 378 382 384 385 50-54 295 328 336 359 373 379 381 381 55-59 273 225 310 352 370 373 375 375 60-64 223 209 288 361 362 363 365 367 65-69 119 219 323 338 342 346 351 354 70-74 68 172 268 293 309 321 331 335 ?75 124 160 314 502 643 717 759 781 TOTAL 4657 5113 5716 6090 6288 6396 6463 6496 FEMALES 0-4 394 36. 373 376 375 375 375 375 5-9 380 367 377 377 375 375 375 375 10-14 354 392 381 376 375 374 375 375 15-19 345 393 378 374 374 374 375 375 20-24 350 379 369 371 374 375 375 375 25-29 419 353 362 372 375 375 375 374 30-34 411 344 365 376 376 375 374 374 35-39 359 348 389 379 375 374 374 374 40-44 263 414 389 376 372 n72 373 374 45-49 277 404 374 366 369 372 373 373 50-54 348 349 345 357 368 372 372 372 55-59 345 252 333 358 371 371 371 371 60-64 347 259 332 377 371 369 368 369 65-69 234 313 386 371 364 363 365 366 70-74 157 290 362 348 348 355 360 362 75+ 333 47s 672 98 1024 1091 1128 1145 TOTAL 5318 5697 6187 6452 6584 6661 6707 6729 BIRTH RATE 14.9 13.6 12.6 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.6 9.8 10.5 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .54 .39 .21 .10 .06 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.125 2.074 2.062 2.059 2.057 2.056 2.056 eO) - BOTH SEXES 73.65 78.16 81.86 83.81 84.8s 85.62 85.93 INR - BOTH SEXES 11.8 6.6 3.4 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 82 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES BELGIUM Projection (thousands) with NRR=I by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 9858 9956 10085 10197 10279 10322 10333 10343 10358 10369 MALES 0-4 305 297 322 312 299 290 290 295 300 301 5-9 309 307 296 322 311 299 290 290 295 300 10-14 336 310 307 296 32' 311 299 290 289 29S 15-19 370 337 310 306 296 321 311 298 290 289 20-24 403 372 336 309 305 295 320 310 297 289 25-29 398 405 370 334 307 303 293 318 308 296 30-34 375 399 403 369 333 306 302 292 317 307 35-39 362 375 397 401 367 331 304 301 291 316 40-44 282 360 371 393 398 364 329 302 299 289 45-49 287 278. 355 366 389 393 360 325 299 296 50-54 298 279 271 347 359 381 386 354 320 295 55-59 287 284 268 261 336 348 370 375 345 312 60-64 270 267 266 253 248 320 333 355 362 333 65-69 158 240 241 243 234 230 299 312 335 343 70-74 163 131 203 208 213 207 206 269 284 308 75+ 210 223 216 274 322 359 376 388 452 517 TOTAL 4812 4862 4933 4994 5037 5059 5067 5074 5082 5085 FEMALES 0-4 289 282 306 296 284 275 275 280 284 286 5-9 295 291 282 305 296 283 275 275 280 284 10-14 320 297 291 282 305 295 283 275 275 280 15-19 354 322 297 291 281 305 295 283 275 275 20-24 388 357 322 297 291 281 305 295 283 275 25-29 383 392 357 322 296 290 281 304 295 283 30-34 359 385 392 357 321 296 290 280 304 294 35-39 348 360 385 391 356 321 295 289 280 303 40-44 275 347 359 383 389 355 320 294 289 279 45-49 289 273 345 357 381 387 353 318 293 288 50-54 306 285 270 341 353 - 377 384 350 316 291 55-59 306 300 280 266 337 349 373 380 347 313 60-64 303 296 292 273 260 330 343 367 374 342 65-69 193 288 283 281 265 253 321 334 359 367 70-74 229 176 266 265 265 252 241 308 322 348 75+ 409 440 424 495 560 613 632 635 701 m TOTAL 5046 5093 5152 5203 5241 5263 5266 5269 5275 5284 BIRTH RATE 11.8 12.6 12.1 11.5 11.1 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.4 DEATH RATE 10.8 10.3 9.9 9.9 10.2 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. .10 .24 .21 .16 .08 .02 .02 .03 .02 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.0 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .20 .26 .22 .16 .08 .02 .02 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.550 1.750 1.796 1.841 1.886 1.929 1.971 2.012 2.053 NRR .741 .838 .862 .885 .907 .929 .950 .971 .992 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 75.42 76.76 78.00 79.11 79.74 80.39 81.06 81.75 82.46 e(l5) - BOTH SEXES 61.51 62.68 63.83 64.84 65.40 65.98 66.58 67.20 67.84 [MR - BOTH SEXES 9.7 7.9 6.8 5.9 5.4 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.0 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0121 .0101 .0088 .0078 .0071 .0064 .0057 .0050 .0043 DEP. RATIO 48.4 49.2 51.7 54.1 55.7 55.1 57.9 61.8 67.6 73.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 83 SuEmry Projectlon for 25-Year Perlods BELGIUM AGE GROUP 1985 200C 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL tlF 9858 10197 10358 10059 9852 9890 9948 9979 MALES 0-4 305 312 300 297 296 297 297 297 5-9 309 322 295 294 296 297 297 297 10-14 336 296 289 294 297 297 297 297 15-19 370 306 290 298 298 i97 296 296 20-24 403 309 297 300 297 296 296 296 25-29 398 334 308 298 295 295 295 295 30-34 375 369 317 292 292 294 294 295 35-39 362 401 291 285 291 294 294 294 40-64 282 393 299 284 293 293 293 293 45-49 287 366 299 290 294 292 291 291 50-54 298 347 320 298 289 287 287 288 55-59 287 261 345 301 279 280 283 284 60-64 270 253 362 269 267 274 277 278 65-69 158 243 335 264 256 267 269 269 70-74 163 208 284 247 246 254 254 255 75. 210 274 452 613 569 568 587 599 TOTAL 4812 4994 5082 4925 4854 4880 4908 4923 FEMALES 0-4 289 296 284 281 281 281 281 281 5-9 295 305 280 279 281 281 281 281 10-14 320 282 275 279 281 282 281 281 15-19 354 291 275 282 282 282 281 281 20-24 388 297 283 285 282 281 281 281 25-29 383 322 295 284 281 280 281 281 30-34 359 357 304 279 279 280 281 281 35-39 348 391 280 273 278 281 281 281 40-64 275 383 289 273 281 281 281 281 45-49 289 357 293 280 284 281 280 280 50-54 306 341 316 291 281 279 279 279 55-59 306 266 347 298 275 276 278 279 60-64 303 273 374 272 268 274 277 278 65-69 193 281 359 277 265 274 276 276 70-74 229 265 322 275 267 273 272 272 75h 409 495 701 925 832 825 849 863 TOTAL 5046 5203 5275 5134 4998 5011 5040 5056 BIRTH RATE 12.2 11.2 11.3 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 10.3 10.6 12.5 12.5 11.6 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .23 .06 -.12 -.08 .02 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.702 1.926 2.064 2.065 2.064 2.063 2.063 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.74 80.41 83.16 84.54 85.29 85.85 86.08 INR - BOTH SEXES 8.1 4.8 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 84 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRriTRIES BULGARIA ProJection (thousands) with NRR-1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 8941 88n 8724 8661 89 8636 8632 8631 8647 8676 MALES 0-4 302 289 277 275 277 274 271 268 269 272 5-9 338 291 281 2n 2n 275 274 270 268 269 10-14 338 330 285 276 269 271 275 274 270 268 15-19 312 329 323 281 274 268 270 274 273 270 20-24 309 297 318 315 276 271 267 269 273 272 25-29 312 290 283 308 309 273 270 265 268 272 30-34 326 295 277 274 302 306 272 269 264 267 35-39 337 312 285 270 269 299 304 270 267 263 40-44 280 325 302 278 265 266 297 302 268 265 45-49 274 269 315 295 2n 261 262 293 298 265 50-54 308 262 259 305 287 265 255 257 287 293 55-59 296 289 247 246 291 275 255 246 249 279 60-64 265 269 264 228 229 273 260 242 235 238 65-69 137 229 235 234 204 207 249 239 224 219 70-74 153 109 187 194 196 173 178 217 211 201 75+ 164 184 171 219 262 288 289 297 341 372 TOTAL 4445 4370 4308 4268 4255 4247 4248 4253 4266 4285 FEMALES 0-4 285 273 262 260 261 259 256 253 254 256 5-9 322 276 265 257 257 260 259 255 253 254 10-14 317 315 270 261 255 256 260 259 255 253 15-19 295 309 308 265 259 253 256 260 258 255 20-24 294 280 296 300 261 257 253 255 259 258 25-29 304 276 265 286 294 258 256 253 255 259 30-34 322 289 264 257 282 292 258 256 252 255 35-39 335 311 281 258 253 280 291 257 255 251 -44 280 327 305 276 255 251 278 290 256 254 45-49 279 274 321 300 273 253 250 276 288 254 50-54 313 273 268 316 296 269 249 247 274 285 55-59 302 304 265 261 308 290 264 245 243 270 60-64 287 28 290 255 252 299 281 257 240 238 65-69 160 265 268 2n 241 240 285 270 248 233 70-74 177 139 234 239 247 220 222 266 254 236 75+ 221 257 255 330 401 452 67 480 537 580 TOTAL 4496 4453. 445 4392 435 4389 4384 4379 4382 4391 BIRTH RATE 13.1 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.3 DEATH RATE 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.7 12.3 12.4 12.2 11.8 11.6 RATE OF MAT. INC. .16 .12 .08 .09 .02 -.01 -.00 .04 .07 NET MIGRATION RATE -4.3 -3.4 -2.3 -1.2 -.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE -.27 -.23 -.15 -.03 -.03 -.01 -.00 .04 .07 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.960 1.960 1.960 1.979 1.998 2.017 2.036 2.054 2.073 NRR .926 .927 .931 .943 .953 .964 .975 .985 .996 oCO) - BOTH SEXES 72.01 73.07 74.22 75.45 76.32 77.24 78.20 79.21 80.26 eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 58.57 59.62 60.53 61.56 62.32 63.12 63.96 64.84 65.76 INR - BOTH SEXES 14.7 14.4 11.8 9.8 8.6 7.5 6.3 5.2 4.1 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0161 .0177 .0146 .0122 .0109 .0095 .0082 .0069 .0056 DEP. RATIO 48.3 50.4 52.1 55.4 57.0 58.2 61.4 63.4 64.3 64.8 COUN7RIHS, BOONOMIE, AND ThRUTORD3S 85 Suwery Projection for 25-Year Periods BULAI AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 d0n 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 8941 8U61 64? 6745 a22 893a 901S 9062 MALES 0-4 302 275 269 270 271 271 271 271 5-9 338 272 26 21 2m 271 2n1 271 10-14 338 276 2 272 271 271 271 271 15-19 312 281 273 273 271 271 271 271 20-24 309 315 273 271 270 270 :70 270 25-29 312 308 268 267 26 269 270 270 30-34 326 274 264 265 268 269 269 269 35-39 337 270 267 246 266 266 268 268 40-44 280 278 266 267 266 267 267 267 45-49 274 295 2M 266 265 264 265 266 50-54 308 305 267 257 256 261 262 23 55-59 296 246 249 249 252 257 259 259 60-64 265 226 235 243 246 251 253 254 65-69 137 234 224 232 236 242 244 245 70-74 153 194 211 23 222 226 229 232 75 164 219 341 430 466 496 526 541 TOTAL 4445 4268 42t6 4336 432 4426 4465 4486 FEMALES 0-4 285 260 254 255 255 256 mS 255 5-9 322 257 253 255 256 255 255 255 10-14 317 261 255 256 256 255 255 255 15-19 295 265 256 257 256 25S 255 255 20-24 294 300 259 256 255 255 255 255 25-29 304 286 255 253 254 255 255 255 30-34 322 257 252 252 254 255 255 255 35-39 335 256 255 254 255 255 255 255 40-44 280 276 256 256 256 254 254 255 .5-49 279 300 288 256 254 253 254 254 50-54 313 316 274 250 250 252 253 254 55-59 302 261 243 245 247 251 252 253 60-64 287 255 240 245 247 250 251 251 65-69 160 272 248 241 246 246 249 249 70-74 i77 239 254 262 240 242 244 246 75+ 221 330 53r 617 61 n15 75 m TOTAL U96 4392 4382 4409 4450 4507 4553 4576 BIRTH RATE 12.8 12.4 12.2 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 11.6 12.1 11.7 11.7 11.4 11.4 11.5 NET NIGRATION RATE -3.3 -.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE -.21 -.01 .05 .04 .05 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.961 2.016 2.077 2.074 2.071 2.070 2.069 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 73.09 77.28 61.33 83.46 4.3 ss.50 85.06 INI - BOTH SEXES 13.7 7.5 3.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 86 COUNTRIES, ECONOMEMS AAND TERRrIORIES CHA NEL ISLANDS Projection (thousands) with NRRB1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 134 144 lS 155 1S7 157 158 159 159 159 MALES 0-4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 5-9 4 4 5 S 5 4 4 4 4 4 10-14 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 15-19 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 20-24 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 25-29 5 6 a 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 30-34 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 35-39 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 40-44 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 45-49 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 50-54 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 4 4 55-59 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 5 4 60-64 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 65-69 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 70-74 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 75+ 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 S 6 8 TOTAL 65 70 73 75 76 76 76 76 77 77 FEMALES 0-4 3 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5-9 4 3 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 10-14 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 15-19 5 4 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 20-24 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 25-29 5 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 30-34 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 4 35-39 5 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 40-44 4 5 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 45-49 4 4 5 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 50-54 4 4 4 5 7 6 6 6 5 5 55-59 4 4 4 4 5 7 6 6 6 5 60-64 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 65-69 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 70-74 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 75+ 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 13 TOTAL 69 74 78 80 81 81 82 82 82 82 BIRTH RATE 13.3 12.8 11.8 11.0 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.1 11.1 DEATH RATE 10.1 9.4 9.1 8.9 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.5 11.4 RATE OF MAT. INC. .32 .33 .26 .21 .10 .08 .08 .06 -.03 NET MIGRATION RATE 11.5 5.4 2.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.46 .87 .53 .21 .10 .08 .08 .06 -.03 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.650 1.650 1.650 1.7m 1.791 1.857 1.922 1.984 2.044 NRR .789 .791 .792 .828 .862 .895 .927 .*5SP, .988 e(0) - BOTH SEXES 76.24 77.39 78.48 79.50 80.10 80.71 81.35 82.00 82.67 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 62.22 63.27 64.26 65.19 65.73 66.28 66.85 67.43 68.04 INR - BOTH SEXES 8.6 7.4 6.4 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.0 3.5 2.9 qCS) - BOTH SEXES .0108 .0095 .0083 .0074 .0068 .0061 .0055 .0048 .0042 DEP. RATIO 46.7 46.5 48.7 51.1 50.6 50.2 53.7 61.6 68.0 74.5 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrDTRIES 87 Smmary Projection for 25-Year Periods C ANNNnL ISLANDS AGE GROWP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 134 155 159 152 147 147 148 148 MALES 0-4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5-9 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 10-14 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 15-19 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 20-24 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 25-29 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 30-34 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 35-39 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 40-44 4 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 45-49 4 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 50-54 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 55-59 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 60-64 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 65-69 3 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 70-74 2 3 5 4 4 4 4 4 75+ 3 4 6 9 9 8 9 9 TOTAL 65 75 77 74 72 73 73 73 FEMALES 0-4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5.9 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 10-14 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 15-19 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 20-24 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 25-29 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 30-34 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 35-39 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 40-44 4 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 45-49 4 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 50-54 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 55-59 4 4 6 5 4 4 4 4 60-6 3 4 6 5 4 4 4 4 65-69 3 4 6 4 4 4 4 4 70-74 3 4 6 4 4 4 4 4 75+ 5 6 11 15 13 13 13 13 TOTAL 69 80 82 78 75 75 75 75 BIRTH RATE 12.6 10.9 11.1 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 9.5 9.8 13.0 12.7 11.7 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 6.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .95 .10 -.19 -.11 .00 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.648 1.852 2.062 2.065 2.064 2.063 2.063 etO) - BOTH SEXES 77.40 80.74 83.33 84.64 85.35 85.87 86.08 IMR - BOTN SEXES 7.5 4.5 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 88 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TEtRRITORIES CROATUA Projection (thousans) with NRR-1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 465s 4712 4765 4U22 4877 4919 4942 4954 4964 4974 MALES 0-4 169 155 153 150 151 152 151 1SO 150 151 5-9 168 169 lss 153 150 151 151 151 1SO 149 10-14 165 168 168 154 152 IS0 151 151 151 1SO 15-19 166 164 167 168 154 152 149 151 151 150 20-24 175 165 163 166 167 153 151 149 150 151 25-29 184 173 163 162 165 166 152 151 148 149 30-34 182 182 172 162 161 164 165 152 150 147 35-39 161 180 1SO 170 161 160 163 164 151 149 40-44 166 1s5 ln li7 169 159 159 162 163 150 45-49 155 162 15S 174 175 166 Is? 157 160 161 50-54 154 149 156 1S0 169 171 162 154 153 157 55-59 131 144 140 148 143 162 164 157 149 149 60-64 93 118 131 128 137 134 153 156 149 143 65-69 79 79 102 115 115 124 122 140 144 139 70-74 55 61 63 84 96 97 106 106 124 129 75+ 76 72 75 83 104 128 145 163 178 203 TOTAL 2280 2299 2321 2346 2371 2390 2403 2412 2420 2428 FEMALES 0-4 158 146 144 141 142 142 141 140 140 141 5-9 158 158 145 143 141 142 142 141 140 140 10-14 156 158 1S7 145 143 141 142 142 141 140 15-19 158 156 15s 15s 145 143 141 142 142 141 20-24 168 1S8 155 1s5 157 145 143 140 141 142 25-29 173 167 1S7 155 157 1S7 145 143 140 141 30-34 172 172 167 1s5 l55 15 156 14" 143 140 35-39 156 171 172 166 156 154 156 156 1" 142 40-44 159 l55 170 171 16 156 154 156 156 144 45-49 154 15T 153 169 170 165 1S5 153 155 155 50-54 160 151 1SS 152 167 168 163 154 152 154 55-59 157 156 148 152 149 16S 166 161 152 150 60-64 117 150 I50 144 148 14 161 163 159 150 65-69 117 109 142 14" 139 143 142 157 159 155 70-74 83 104 99 131 135 131 136 135 150 153 75+ 130 145 171 191 237 275 296 31S 330 357 TOTAL 2377 2413 2444 2476 2507 2529 2539 2542 2544 2546 BIRTH RATE 13.1 12.7 12.3 12.2 12.1 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.8 DEATH RATE 10.7 10.5 9.9 9.9 10.4 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. .24 .22 .24 23 .17 .09 .05 .04 .04 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .24 .22 .24 .23 .17 .09 .05 .04 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.850 1.850 1.850 1.8 1.926 1.963 1.999 2.035 2.070 NRR .872 .875 .878 .89m .918 .937 .956 .975 .m3 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 71.61 73.53 75.26 76.83 77.62 78.44 79.30 80.19 81.12 WS) - BOTH SEXES 58.24 59.93 61.46 62.87 63.54 64.25 64.99 65.76 66.57 [RR - BOTH SEXES 15.4 12.8 10.6 8.8 7.8 6.8 5.7 4.7 3.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0190 .0158 .0131 .0111 .0099 .0087 .0075 .0063 .0051 DEP. RATIO 48.2 47.8 49.3 51.3 53.7 56.5 58.6 61.8 65.0 67.7 COUNTRIES, ECONOMXES, AND TERRITORIES 89 Swuary Projectfon for 25-Year Perfods CROATIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 4657 4822 4964 4943 4920 4963 5003 5024 MALES 0-4 169 1S0 150 150 151 151 151 151 5-9 168 153 150 150 t51 151 151 151 10-14 165 154 151 151 151 151 151 151 15-19 166 168 151 151 151 150 150 150 20-24 175 166 150 150 150 150 150 150 25-29 184 162 148 148 149 150 150 150 30-34 182 162 150 148 149 149 149 149 35-39 161 170 151 148 149 149 149 149 40-44 166 178 163 148 148 148 148 148 45-49 155 174 163 146 147 147 147 148 50-54 154 150 153 142 143 K45 146 146 55-59 131 148 149 141 141 143 144 144 60-64 93 128 149 137 137 139 140 141 65-69 79 t 144 141 132 134 135 136 70-74 55 84 124 128 122 125 127 129 75+ 76 83 178 246 262 277 292 301 TOTAL 2280 2346 2420 2426 2430 2459 2482 2494 FEMALES 0-4 158 141 140 141 141 141 141 141 5-9 158 143 140 14' 141 141 141 141 10-14 156 145 141 141 A1 141 141 141 15-19 158 157 142 142 141 141 141 14' 20-24 168 157 141 141 141 141 141 14. 25-29 173 155 140 140 140 141 141 141 30-34 172 s15 143 140 140 141 141 141 35-39 156 166 144 140 141 141 141 141 40-44 159 171 156 141 141 140 140 140 45-49 154 169 155 140 140 140 140 140 50-54 160 152 152 138 138 139 140 140 55-59 157 152 152 140 138 139 139 140 60-64 117 144 159 140 137 138 139 139 65-69 117 144 159 148 136 137 138 138 70-74 83 131 1S0 1" 133 135 136 136 75+ 130 191 330 401 400 408 423 430 TOTAL 2377 2476 2546 2517 2490 2504 2521 2530 BIRTH RATE 12.7 12.0 11.8 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 10.4 10.8 12.0 12.1 11.5 11.4 11.5 MET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .23 .12 -.02 -.02 .03 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.851 1.961 2.080 2.080 2.078 2.07? 2.077 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 73.48 78.49 82.05 83.90 84.89 85.62 85.93 INR - BOTH SEXES 12.9 6.8 3.2 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 90 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITDRIES CYPRUS Projection (thousands) with NRRuI by 1995 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 666 702 731 758 786 814 842 867 888 906 MALES 0-4 33 32 29 28 28 29 30 30 29 29 5-9 27 33 32 29 28 28 29 30 30 29 10-14 26 27 33 32 29 28 28 29 30 30 15-19 28 26 27 33 32 29 28 28 29 30 20-24 32 28 26 27 33 32 29 27 28 29 25-29 30 32 28 26 27 32 32 29 27 28 30-34 24 30 31 27 25 26 32 32 29 27 35-39 24 24 29 31 27 25 26 32 32 29 40-44 19 24 23 29 31 27 25 26 32 32 45-49 18 19 23 23 29 31 27 25 26 32 50-54 14 18 18 23 23 28 30 26 24 25 55-59 13 13 17 18 22 22 27 29 26 24 60-64 12 12 13 16 17 21 21 26 28 25 65-69 11 11 11 12 15 16 20 20 25 27 70-74 10 9 9 10 10 13 14 18 18 23 15+ 12 14 1S 15 16 17 20 24 29 33 TOTAL 334 351 365 378 391 405 419 431 441 450 FEMALES 0-4 31 31 28 26 26 28 28 28 28 27 5-9 25 31 31 28 26 26 28 28 28 28 10-14 25 25 31 31 28 26 26 28 28 28 15-19 26 25 25 31 31 27 26 26 28 28 20-24 30 26 25 25 30 31 27 26 26 28 25-29 28 30 26 25 25 30 30 27 26 26 30-34 25 28 29 25 25 25 30 30 27 26 35-39 24 25 27 29 25 24 24 30 30 27 40-44 20 24 25 27 29 25 24 24 30 30 45-49 i8 20 23 24 27 29 25 24 24 30 50-54 16 18 19 23 24 27 29 25 24 24 55-59 15 16 17 19 23 24 27 29 25 24 60-64 13 14 15 17 19 22 23 26 28 24 65-69 12 12 14 15 16 18 22 23 26 28 70-74 11 11 11 13 14 16 17 21 22 25 75+ 16 19 21 23 26 30 34 39 45 52 TOTAL 333 351 366 380 394 409 423 436 447 456 BIRTH RATE 18.8 16.0 14.6 14.3 14.4 14.2 13.7 13.0 12.5 DEATH RATE 7.7 7.6 7.3 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 8.2 8.6 RATE OF MAT. INC. 1.10 .85 .73 .71 .71 .68 .59 .48 .39 NET MIGRATION RATE -.6 -.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.04 .8? 73 .71 .71 .68 .59 .48 .39 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.350 2.161 2.090 2.086 2.083 2.081 2.078 2.076 2.073 NRR 1.118 1.031 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 7S.68 76.92 78.09 79.14 79.77 80.42 81.09 81.78 82.49 etIS) - BOTH SEXES 61.94 62.9f 63.98 64.91 65.47 66.04 66.63 67.24 67.87 INR - BOTH SEXES 11.5 9.0 7.4 6.3 S.6 5.0 4.3 3.7 3.0 q(5) * BOTH SEXES .0142 .0113 .0095 .0082 .0074 .0066 .0058 .0051 .0043 DEP. RATO 55.7 56.8 56.6 52.3 S0.2 50.9 54.5 57.6 61.4 65.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrITRIES 91 Suary Projection for 25-Year PerIods CYPRUS AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 666 758 888 944 962 97n 978 981 PALES 0-4 33 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 5-9 27 29 30 29 29 29 29 29 10-14 26 32 30 29 29 29 29 29 15-19 28 33 29 29 29 29 29 29 20-24 32 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 25-29 30 26 27 29 29 29 29 29 30-34 24 27 29 30 29 29 29 29 35-39 24 31 32 30 29 29 29 29 40-44 19 29 32 29 28 29 29 29 45-49 18 23 26 27 28 29 29 29 :2 54 14 23 24 26 28 28 28 28 55-59 13 18 26 27 28 28 28 28 60-64 12 16 28 29 28 27 27 27 65-69 11 12 25 28 26 26 26 26 70-74 10 10 18 21 23 24 25 25 75+ 12 15 29 45 53 56 58 59 TOTAL 334 378 441 468 476 480 483 485 FEMALES 0-4 31 26 28 28 28 28 28 28 5-9 25 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 10-14 25 31 28 28 28 28 28 28 15-19 26 31 28 27 27 28 28 28 20-24 30 25 26 27 28 28 28 28 25-29 28 25 26 28 28 ?4 28 28 30-34 25 25 27 28 28 28 28 28 35-39 24 29 30 28 28 27 28 28 40-44 20 27 30 27 27 27 27 28 45-49 18 24 24 26 27 27 28 28 50-54 16 23 24 26 27 28 27 27 55-59 15 19 25 27 28 27 27 27 aO-64 13 17 28 30 28 27 27 27 65-69 12 15 26 29 27 27 27 27 70-74 11 13 22 23 25 26 27 27 75+ 16 23 45 67 77 82 84 85 TOTAL 333 380 447 476 487 492 495 496 BIPFH RATE 16.4 13.9 12.4 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 7.5 7.6 9.9 11.1 11.4 11.5 11.5 MET MIGRATION RATE -.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .86 .63 .24 .08 .04 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.212 2.081 2.0on 2.069 2.068 2.067 2.067 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.93 80.49 83.20 84.56 85.30 85.84 86.06 INR - BOTH SEXES 9.4 5.0 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 92 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND JERRIFORIES CZECHOSLOVAIA Projection (thousands) with NRR-I by 2030 AGE GROtP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 15500 15662 15824 16058 16366 16655 16924 17174 17425 17668 HALES 0-4 607 549 557 575 595 592 575 564 566 576 5-9 711 603 545 554 573 593 590 574 563 565 10-14 625 708 600 542 552 572 593 590 574 563 15-19 551 620 703 596 S40 550 570 591 588 573 20-24 551 544 612 696 591 536 547 567 589 586 25-29 606 542 535 604 689 586 532 S44 564 586 30-34 643 596 533 527 597 682 582 529 540 561 35-39 587 632 585 525 521 591 677 577 525 537 40-44 469 575 619 57S 517 514 584 670 572 521 45-49 383 456 559 604 562 so0 504 575 660 565 50-54 411 366 436 537 582 541 491 491 561 646 55-59 397 384 343 410 506 551 518 470 472 542 60-64 364 357 346 310 373 464 510 483 443 448 65-69 183 310 306 29S 269 327 412 458 439 407 70-74 240 143 243 241 239 219 271 348 3P3 383 75+ 241 267 214 255 292 314 318 367 468 576 TOTAL 7568 7652 7735 7849 7997 8141 8275 8398 8518 8636 FEMALES 0-4 575 522 529 546 565 562 546 536 537 547 5-9 677 573 518 527 544 564 561 546 535 537 10-14 593 675 570 S17 526 544 563 560 545 535 15-19 525 591 672 568 s5s 525 543 563 560 545 20-24 523 521 586 668 565 513 524 542 562 559 25-29 580 518 514 5Sl 665 563 512 523 541 561 30-34 622 576 512 s10 57S 662 562 511 522 540 35-39 577 617 570 SO 507 575 660 560 S10 520 40-44 473 572 611 56s 504 504 572 657 558 508 45-49 399 466 564 604 559 soo 500 568 652 554 50-54 439 391 457 554 594 551 493 494 562 646 55-59 454 426 380 445 541 581 540 484 486 554 60-64 "47 432 406 364 429 523 563 525 473 476 65-69 240 412 400 379 342 405 497 539 506 458 70-74 343 209 360 355 340 310 37n 461 505 479 75+ 464 512 439 17 594 633 641 708 854 1013 TOTAL 7932 8010 8089 a2mA 8369 8514 8649 8776 8907 9032 BIRTH RATE 14.0 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.1 13.5 13.0 12.8 12.9 DEATH RATE 11.5 11.3 10.9 10.4 10.5 10.3 10.1 9.9 10.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. .25 .27 .33 .41 .36 .32 .29 .29 .28 NET MIGRATION RATE -.4 -.6 -.4 -.2 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .21 .21 .29 .38 .35 .32 .29 .29 .28 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.012 2.024 2.035 2.047 2.059 2.070 NRR .951 .952 .954 .962 .969 .976 .983 .990 .997 CO) - BOTH SEXES 71.15 71.80 n.69 73.72 74.68 75.70 76.78 77.92 79.13 :CS) - BOTH SEXES 57.55 58.05 58.78 59.67 60.57 61.52 52.52 63.59 64.73 IHR - BOTH SEXES 13.1 11.4 9.8 8.3 7.6 6.9 6.2 5.5 4.8 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0162 .0141 .0122 .0105 .0097 .0089 .0081 .0073 .0065 DEP. RATIO 55.0 53.8 50.1 49.3 49.7 51.1 54.1 57.2 59.3 60.2 COUNIRES, ECONOMIES AND TERRITORIES 93 Ssmry Projection for 25-Year Periods CZECHOSLOVAKIA AGE GROtP 1985 2000 2025 20S0 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N4F 15500 16058 17425 1261 18625 18931 19149 19258 NALES 0-4 607 575 S6 572 575 575 575 575 5-9 711 554 563 574 576 575 575 575 10-14 625 s2 574 57M 576 575 574 574 15-19 551 596 588 5S0 575 574 574 574 20-24 551 696 S89 573 571 572 573 573 25-29 606 604 564 S60 S67 571 572 572 30-34 643 S27 540 555 567 570 571 570 35-39 587 525 525 563 S70 569 569 569 40-44 469 575 572 574 569 565 S66 566 45-49 383 604 660 570 558 559 561 563 50-54 411 537 561 539 540 550 556 558 55-59 397 410 472 504 525 542 548 549 60-64 364 310 44 472 518 532 536 537 65-69 183 298 439 45 S05 511 515 518 70-74 240 241 393 508 47 472 482 489 75. 241 255 468 750 908 1016 1097 1136 TOrAL 7568 7849 518 8956 9166 9330 9443 9499 FENALES 0-4 575 54 537 S42 54S 545 545 545 5-9 677 527 535 54 546 545 545 545 10-14 593 51T 545 549 547 545 545 545 15-19 525 5s S60 551 S45 544 544 545 20-24 523 668 562 545 542 544 544 545 25-29 580 581 S41 535 541 544 545 545 30-34 622 510 522 532 543 545 544 544 35-39 57 SO 510 542 547 545 544 544 40-44 473 56S 558 555 S5 543 542 543 45-49 399 604 652 555 541 539 541 542 50-54 439 554 562 531 528 536 540 541 55-59 454 445 486 507 522 535 539 539 60-64 447 364 473 489 526 535 536 536 65-69 240 379 506 523 531 531 530 532 70-74 343 355 S50 590 519 515 520 524 7T. 464 S1T 854 1213 1389 lS10 1601 1645 TOTAL 7932 820 8907 9305 9459 9602 9707 9759 BIRTH RATE 14.1 13.6 12.6 12.2 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 11.2 10.2 10.8 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.5 NET NIGRATION RATE -.5 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .24 .33 .19 .08 .o .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.962 2.035 2.072 2.068 2.066 2.064 2.063 *tO) - BOTH SEXES 71.89 75.80 80.42 82.96 84.13 85.36 85.77 I B WTH SEXES 11.4 6.9 4.1 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 94 COUNTIRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES DENMARK Projection (thousands) With NRRu1 by 2030 AG. GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N.F 5114 5140 5187 5228 5250 5257 5257 5260 5261 5252 HALES 0-4 135 149 163 161 153 145 143 147 151 153 5-9 161 136 150 163 161 153 145 143 147 151 10-14 186 162 137 150 163 161 153 145 143 147 15-19 201 187 162 137 149 163 160 152 145 143 20-24 204 202 187 162 136 149 162 160 152 144 25-29 190 205 203 18? 161 136 148 161 159 151 30-34 190 191 206 202 186 160 135 147 161 159 35-39 210 190 191 205 201 185 159 134 147 160 40-44 18 209 189 190 203 199 183 158 133 146 45-49 148 186 206 186 187 200 197 181 156 132 50-54 131 144 181 201 182 183 196 193 178 154 55-59 128 125 138 174 194 176 177 190 188 173 60-66 127 118 117 129 164 184 167 169 183 181 65-69 109 113 106 106 118 151 170 156 159 173 70-74 92 90 94 90 91 103 133 151 141 145 75+ 120 128 133 142 147 153 168 205 248 270 TOTAL 2519 2536 2561 2584 2596 2599 2597 2595 2591 2582 FEMALES 0-4 130 142 156 154 146 138 137 140 144 146 5-9 154 131 143 156 154 146 138 137 140 144 10-14 178 155 132 143 156 154 146 138 137 140 15-19 191 179 155 132 143 156 153 1b6 138 137 20-24 194 193 181 156 132 143 155 153 145 138 25-29 181 197 195 181 156 132 143 155 153 145 30-34 182 183 198 195 181 155 131 142 155 153 35-39 201 182 183 197 194 180 155 131 142 155 40-44 181 26C 182 182 196 193 179 154 131 142 45-49 146 179 199 181 181 195 192 178 153 130 50-54 134 144 177 196 178 179 193 190 177 152 55-59 134 131 141 173 192 175 176 190 188 175 60-64 140 129 126 136 168 187 171 173 187 185 65-69 126 132 122 120 130 162 181 166 168 182 70-74 118 113 119 112 111 121 152 171 158 161 75+ 207 214 218 230 236 242 2S8 301 355 387 TOTAL 2595 2605 2625 2644 2654 2658 2660 2665 2670 2670 BIRTH RATE 11.4 12.4 12.2 11.5 10.9 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.4 DEATH RATE 11.7 11.4 11.0 10.7 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.3 11.8 RATE OF NAT. INC. -.03 .10 .12 .08 .02 .00 .01 .00 -.03 MET NIGRATION RATE 1.4 .8 .4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .10 .18 .16 .08 .02 .00 .01 .00 -.03 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.550 1.700 1.754 1.806 1.857 1.906 1.954 2.)01 2.047 NRR .743 .816 .843 .869 .895 .920 ."L .98 .991 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 74.79 75.60 76.51 77.47 78.21 78.99 79.79 80.63 81.50 0s15) - moTH SEXES 60.74 61.48 62.31 63.19 63.88 64.59 65.33 66.11 66.92 l11 - BOTH SEXES 8.3 7.5 6.7 5.9 5.4 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0105 .095 .0086 .0077 .0072 .0066 .0060 .0054 .0048 DEP. RATIO 50.4 47.9 47.6 49.3 50.6 53.3 57.6 61.3 66.0 72.0 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES 95 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods DENARK AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 5114 5228 5261 5057 4944 4970 5006 5026 MALES 0-4 135 161 151 149 149 149 149 149 5-9 161 163 147 147 149 149 149 149 10-14 186 150 143 148 149 149 149 149 15-19 201 137 145 150 150 149 149 149 20-24 204 162 152 152 150 149 149 149 25-29 190 187 159 150 148 148 148 148 30-34 190 202 161 145 146 147 148 148 35-39 210 205 147 141 146 148 148 148 40-44 188 190 133 142 148 148 147 147 45-49 148 186 156 148 149 147 146 146 50-54 131 201 178 154 146 144 144 145 55-59 128 174 188 152 139 140 142 143 60-64 127 129 183 135 132 137 139 140 65-69 109 106 159 117 127 134 135 135 70-74 92 90 141 128 125 128 128 128 75+ 120 142 248 319 283 281 293 300 TOTAL 2519 2584 2591 2478 2435 2448 2464 2474 FEMALES 0-4 130 154 144 142 142 142 142 142 5-9 154 156 140 140 142 142 142 142 10-14 178 143 137 141 142 142 142 142 15-19 191 132 138 143 143 142 142 142 20-24 194 156 145 146 143 142 142 142 25-29 181 181 153 144 142 142 142 142 30-34 182 195 155 140 140 141 142 142 35-39 201 197 142 136 140 142 142 142 40-44 181 182 131 137 143 143 142 142 45-49 14 181 153 144 144 142 141 141 50-54 134 196 177 151 142 140 141 141 55-59 134 173 188 151 137 138 140 141 oO-64 140 136 187 137 133 138 140 140 65-69 126 120 168 124 132 139 140 139 70-74 118 112 158 141 136 139 137 137 75+ 207 230 355 462 408 407 424 433 TOTAL 2595 2644 2670 2579 2510 2522 2542 2553 BIRTH RATE 12.0 11.1 11.3 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 11.4 10.8 12.9 12.7 11.6 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .15 .03 -.16 -.09 .02 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.661 1.902 2.060 2.060 2.059 2.057 2.057 CO) - BOTH SEXES 75.64 79.02 82.36 84.09 85.02 85.72 86.01 IER - BOTH SEXES 7.5 4.9 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 96 COUNT11ES, ECONOM1ES, AND TERRFrORIES EGYPr, ARAB REP. OF Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2015 AGE GROW 19SS 1990 199S 2000 2005 2010 201S 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 4651l 52061 57596 62395 67418 72331 76895 81322 85640 89729 MALES 0-4 3768 3818 3769 3648 3700 3704 3584 3S89 3625 3623 5-9 3101 3608 3691 3674 35S1 3642 36S7 3549 3563 3610 10-14 2606 3051 3S61 3653 3664 35S6 3622 3641 3537 3555 15-19 2"49 2569 3012 3S22 3618 3614 3532 3602 3625 3526 20-24 2191 239S 2S19 2960 346 3S71 3576 3501 3577 3607 25-29 20ss 2135 2361 2466 2903 3412 3525 3538 3473 3558 30-34 1741 2001 2082 2288 2414 285s 3366 3486 3509 3454 35-39 1280 1692 1948 2031 2238 2370 2811 3324 3452 3484 40-44 938 1239 1662 1896 1960 2189 2326 2767 3281 3417 45-49 836 903 119S 1S87 1836 1925 2135 2274 2713 3226 50-54 746 796 860 1142 1S21 1766 1857 2065 2206 2639 55-59 626 698 74 809 1077 1439 1674 1765 1968 2108 60-64 490 570 637 683 743 9 1328 1549 1637 1828 65-69 349 426 497 557 600 65S 877 1177 1376 1457 70-74 2U 281 34 403 4S6 493 s39 723 974 1141 754 209 26 337 413 501 s83 650 717 886 1165 TOTAL 23632 2646 29181 31728 348 366 39059 41268 43402 45400 FEMALES 0-4 3566 3656 3602 340 3525 3S2S 3409 3411 3442 3438 3'9o 2913 3430 3549 3S24 3426 340 3490 3383 3393 3433 10-14 2432 2870 3390 3S1T 3499 306 346 3478 3375 3388 15-19 2276 2399 2837 33S7 3489 3676 3389 3450 3468 3370 20-24 2028 2237 262 27 3318 3455 3450 3369 3437 3460 25-29 1933 1986 2194 2321 2757 3278 3423 3425 3352 3426 30-34 1676 1889 194 2152 2282 2719 3243 3394 3404 3339 35-39 1261 1634 1845 1902 2112 2246 2684 3209 3367 3386 40-44 947 1225 1590 179 1860 2071 2210 2648 3175 3341 45-49 861 916 1186 1543 1751 1816 2028 2171 2608 3136 50-54 782 826 m 1142 1490 1697 1765 1978 2123 2559 ss-59 672 740 7 836 1089 1426 1630 1701 1913 2061 60-64 542 620 684 727 70 1021 1343 1542 1617 1826 65-69 410 479 549 609 651 703 927 1227 1418 1497 70-74 303 336 394 455 509 549 599 796 1064 1239 75. 279 359 427 506 600 696 783 872 1082 1428 TOTAL 22879 2501 28215 30667 33138 35566 37836 40054 42238 44329 BIRTH RATE 33.3 29.1 25.4 23.4 21.6 19.5 18.3 17.4 16.4 DEATH RATE 10.4 9.3 8.4 7.8 75 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.1 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.29 1.96 1.69 1.56 1.41 1.22 1.12 1.04 .93 NET MIGRATION RATE -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 -. .0 .0 .0 .0 CR NH RATE 2.25 1.95 1.67 1.55 1.41 1.22 1.12 1.03 .93 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.380 3.840 3.300 2.922 2.57 2.291 2.182 2.150 2.119 hlR 1.761 1.595 1.411 1.282 1.152 1.035 1.000 1.000 1.000 *tO) - S0TH SEXES 59.01 61.01 63.09 65.21 66.71 68.26 6985 71.50 73.19 (15) - 3TH SEXES 53.38 53.72 54.32 55.19 56.11 57.05 S8.01 59.00 60.02 IIR - 80TH 8EXEs 73.1 61.1 50.5 41.3 36.6 31.9 27.1 22.4 17.7 qCS) - OTH SEYES .1149 .0 .0751 .05119 .0515 .O4O .0364 .0289 .0213 DEP. RATIO 76.7 76.6 72.4 44 57. 52.8 49.9 48.5 47.9 47.7 COUNTRIMS ECONOMIEWS AND TERRrrORIES 97 Sumury Projection for 25-VYer Perfods EGYPT, ARAB REP. OF AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 46511 62395 85640 103197 112252 116215 118798 120037 MALES 0-4 3768 3648 3625 3618 3621 3618 3618 3617 5-9 3101 3674 3563 3607 3620 3617 3615 3615 10-14 2606 3653 3537 3606 3622 3618 3615 3614 15-19 2449 3522 3625 3605 3619 3614 3612 3612 20-24 2191 2960 3577 3583 3605 3605 3604 3606 25-29 2055 2464 3473 3562 3581 3592 3595 3596 30-34 1741 2288 3509 3495 3558 3581 3585 3586 35-39 1280 2031 3452 3454 3541 3570 3575 3576 40-44 938 1894 3281 3519 3521 3551 3558 3561 45-49 836 1587 2713 3441 3473 3517 3532 3538 50-54 746 1142 2206 3282 3408 3458 3489 3501 55-59 626 809 1968 3212 3267 3375 3427 3445 60-64 490 683 1637 3000 3112 3267 3339 3364 65-69 349 557 1376 2620 2987 3109 3205 3241 70-74 244 403 974 1889 2651 2856 2995 3051 75. 209 413 886 2331 4723 5817 6586 6950 TOTAL 23632 31728 43402 51823 55907 57765 58948 59472 FEMALES 0-4 3566 3480 34.2 3418 3417 3416 3416 3416 5-9 2913 3524 3393 3412 3416 3415 3415 3414 10-14 2432 3517 3375 3417 3418 3416 3414 3414 15-19 2276 3357 3468 3424 3417 3414 3413 3413 20-24 2028 2798 3437 3417 3409 3410 3411 3412 25-29 1933 2321 33S2 3411 3400 3406 3409 3410 30-34 1676 2152 3404 3361 3392 3403 3407 3408 35-39 1261 1902 3367 3333 3389 3400 3404 3405 40-44 947 1799 3175 3409 3387 3392 3397 3400 45-49 861 1543 2608 3353 3363 3374 3386 3392 50-54 782 1142 2123 3230 3332 3348 3370 3382 55-59 672 836 1913 3218 3243 3314 3350 3366 60-64 542 727 1617 3088 3158 3274 3322 3343 65-69 410 609 1418 2771 3136 3215 3277 3308 70-74 303 455 1064 2089 2933 3100 3199 3250 75+ 279 506 1082 3025 6532 8153 9258 9833 TOTAL 22879 30667 42238 51374 56345 58451 59849 60566 BIRTH RATE 29.0 19.8 15.1 13.0 12.4 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE 9.3 7.3 7.7 9.7 11.0 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.3 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.96 1.27 .75 .34 .14 .09 .04 TOtAL FERTILITY 3.803 2.398 2.106 2.083 2.075 2.070 2.069 etO) - BOTH SEXES 61.17 68.50 75.38 79.72 82.34 84.37 85.14 IMR - BOTH SEXES 61.8 32.0 12.6 4.5 3.2 2.4 2.2 98 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrTORIES ESTONI Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 1990 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1532 1583 1633 1669 1705 1739 1769 1798 1825 1851 MALES 0-4 61 61 59 59 60 61 61 61 60 60 5-9 58 62 61 59 59 60 61 61 60 60 10-14 55 59 62 61 59 59 60 61 61 60 15-19 58 56 59 62 61 59 59 60 61 61 20-24 52 59 57 59 62 61 59 59 59 60 25-29 59 54 60 56 58 61 60 58 58 59 30-34 59 60 54 59 56 58 61 60 58 58 35-39 55 59 60 54 58 55 57 60 60 58 40-44 64 54 58 59 53 58 55 57 60 59 45-49 45 43 53 57 58 52 57 54 56 59 50-54 45 43 41 51 55 56 51 55 53 55 55-59 41 41 40 39 49 53 54 49 53 51 60-64 33 36 37 37 36 45 49 50 46 51 65-69 19 27 31 32 32 32 40 44 46 42 70-74 13 15 21 25 26 26 27 34 38 40 75+ 20 18 18 23 29 34 37 40 48 58 TOTAL 716 747 774 792 811 829 846 862 877 892 FEMALES 0-4 59 58 57 57 57 58 58 58 57 57 5-9 56 60 59 57 57 57 58 58 58 57 10-14 53 56 60 59 57 57 57 58 58 58 15-19 52 55 57 60 59 57 56 57 58 58 20-24 50 54 56 57 60 59 57 56 57 58 25-29 58 52 56 56 57 60 59 56 56 57 30-34 60 60 53 55 56 57 60 59 56 56 35-39 57 61 60 53 55 56 57 60 59 56 40-44 48 57 61 60 53 55 55 57 60 58 45-49 50 47 57 60 60 52 55 55 56 59 50-54 52 49 47 56 60 59 52 54 55 56 55-59 51 50 48 46 55 59 58 51 53 54 60-64 50 48 48 46 44 54 57 57 50 53 65-69 38 46 45 46 44 43 52 56 55 49 70-74 27 33 41 41 42 41 40 49 53 53 75+ 57 50 53 67 78 87 91 94 105 119 TOTAL 816 837 859 876 894 910 923 936 948 960 BIRTH RATE 15.4 14.5 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.4 13.1 12.8 DEATH RATE 12.3 10.8 9.9 9.7 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. .30 .37 .43 .43 .39 .35 .32 .30 .28 NET MIGRATION RATE 3.6 2.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTV RATE .66 .62 .43 .43 .39 .35 .32 .30 .28 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.200 2.096 2.090 2.084 2.080 2.076 2.073 2.069 2.065 NRR 1.047 1.000 t.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 69.89 71.90 73.74 75.41 76.28 77.19 78.14 79.13 80.18 eIS) - BOTH SEXES 56.45 58.33 60.01 61.52 62.27 63.07 63.90 64.78 65.70 IMR - BOTH SEXES 15.0 13.3 11.4 9.6 8.5 7.4 6.4 5.3 4.2 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0182 .0163 .0140 .0120 .0108 .0095 .0082 .0070 .0057 DEP. RATIO 50.8 52.4 53.5 54.1 54.3 54.6 57.0 59.9 62.4 62.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES 99 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods ESTONIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1532 1669 1825 1920 1972 2003 2023 2032 MALES 0-4 61 59 60 60 60 60 60 60 5-9 58 59 60 61 60 60 60 60 10-14 55 61 61 60 60 60 60 60 15-19 58 62 61 60 60 60 60 60 20-24 52 59 59 60 60 60 60 60 25-29 59 56 58 59 60 60 60 60 30-34 59 59 58 60 60 60 60 60 35-39 55 54 60 60 60 60 60 60 40-44 44 59 60 59 59 59 59 60 45-49 45 57 56 58 58 59 59 59 50-54 45 51 53 56 57 58 58 59 55-59 41 39 53 54 57 57 58 58 60-64 33 37 46 54 55 56 56 56 65-69 19 32 46 51 52 53 54 54 70-74 13 25 38 43 47 49 51 51 75+ 20 23 48 78 97 109 116 120 TOTAL 716 792 877 933 964 982 993 998 FEMALES 0-4 59 57 57 58 58 58 58 58 5-9 56 57 58 58 58 58 58 58 10-14 53 59 58 58 58 58 58 58 15-19 52 60 58 58 58 58 58 58 20-24 50 57 57 57 58 58 58 58 25-29 58 56 56 57 58 58 58 58 30-34 60 55 56 58 58 58 58 58 35-39 57 53 59 58 58 57 57 58 40-44 48 60 60 58 57 57 57 57 45-49 50 60 56 57 57 57 57 57 50-54 52 56 55 55 57 57 57 57 55-59 51 46 53 55 57 57 57 57 60-64 50 46 50 57 57 57 57 57 65-69 38 46 55 57 56 56 56 56 70-74 27 41 53 52 53 55 55 56 75+ 57 67 105 136 154 166 172 175 TOTAL 816 876 948 987 1008 1022 1030 1034 BIRTH RATE 14.7 13.6 12.6 12.1 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 11.0 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET NIGRATION RATE 2.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .57 .36 .20 .11 .06 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.121 2.076 2.063 2.059 2.058 2.056 2.056 etO) - BOTH SEXES 71.88 77.26 81.30 83.48 84.66 85.53 85.87 INR - BOTH SEXES 13.3 7.5 3.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 100 COuNTRIBS, ECONOMIES; AND TlERRITORIES FINLAND Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N.F 4902 4986 5072 514 5209 5260 5304 5342 5368 5376 MALES 0-4 167 164 167 160 157 157 158 160 160 159 5-9 167 167 164 167 160 157 157 158 160 160 10-14 156 167 166 164 167 160 157 156 158 160 15-19 180 155 166 166 164 167 160 156 156 158 20-24 194 179 lSS 166 165 163 166 159 156 156 25-29 198 193 178 154 165 165 163 166 158 155 30-34 211 197 192 177 153 16" 164 162 165 158 35-39 228 209 195 190 176 152 163 163 161 164 40-44 162 225 207 194 189 175 151 162 162 160 45-49 143 159 222 204 191 187 173 150 160 161 50-54 131 138 155 217 200 187 183 170 147 158 55-59 129 124 132 149 209 194 182 178 165 144 60-64 104 118 116 125 141 199 185 174 171 159 65-69 75 92 106 lOS 114 130 185 173 164 162 70-74 66 62 77 91 91 101 116 166 157 150 75+ 74 86 91 107 131 148 166 192 252 289 TOTAL 2384 2435 2489 2534 2574 2604 2628 2645 2654 2653 FEMALES 0-4 158 157 160 153 149 149 151 152 152 152 5-9 157 158 157 1S9 153 149 149 151 152 152 10-14 147 157 158 157 159 152 149 149 151 152 15-19 171 147 157 Is8 157 159 152 149 149 151 20-24 184 171 147 157 158 156 159 152 149 149 25-29 186 184 171 147 157 158 156 159 152 149 30-34 198 186 183 170 147 156 157 156 159 152 35-39 214 197 185 183 170 146 156 157 156 158 40-44 154 213 196 184 182 169 1"6 156 157 155 45-49 140 153 211 195 183 181 168 145 155 156 50-54 132 138 151 208 193 181 179 167 144 154 55-59 140 129 135 148 205 190 178 177 165 142 60-64 137 135 125 132 144 200 186 175 174 162 65-69 115 129 128 119 126 139 194 180 171 170 70-74 112 103 118 118 111 118 131 184 173 164 75. 169 191 200 221 241 250 263 288 357 405 TOTAL 2518 2551 2584 2610 2635 2656 2676 2697 2715 2724 BIRTH RATE 13.1 13.1 12.3 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 9.7 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.7 11.3 RATE OF NAT. INC. .34 .34 .28 .25 .19 .16 .14 .10 .03 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .34 .34 .28 .25 .19 .17 .14 .10 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.750 1.890 1.914 1.938 1.962 1.986 2.009 2.032 2.055 NRR .841 .910 .922 .935 .947 .959 .972 .983 .995 .(O) - BOTH SEXES 74.85 76.05 77.19 78.31 79.00 79.70 80.44 81.20 81.99 eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 60.62 61.75 62.84 63.91 64.55 65.22 65.92 66.64 67.39 INR - BOTH SEXES 6.5 5.8 5.3 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.2 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0084 .0076 .0071 .0065 .0061 .0057 .0053 .0049 .0045 DEP. RATIO 46.8 48.8 50.1 50.3 51.1 52.5 59.4 65.3 69.8 73.3 COUNIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERR1rORIS 101 Sum.ry Projectfon for 25-Y"r Peri*& FR AN D AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL KNF 4902 5144 5368 5262 5257 5296 5330 5348 MALES 0-4 167 160 160 159 159 159 159 159 5-9 167 167 160 159 159 159 159 159 10-14 156 164 1S$ 1S 159 159 159 159 15-19 180 166 156 158 159 159 159 159 20-24 194 166 156 159 159 158 158 158 25-29 198 154 1Se 158 158 158 158 158 30-34 211 177 165 158 157 157 157 157 35-39 228 190 161 156 156 157 157 157 40-44 162 194 162 153 156 156 157 157 45-49 143 204 160 1S2 155 156 156 156 50-54 131 217 147 153 154 154 154 154 55-59 129 149 165 156 151 151 151 152 60-64 104 125 171 149 16 147 148 149 65-69 75 105 164 143 138 142 143 144 70-74 66 91 157 132 129 134 136 136 75+ 74 10? 252 287 296 3"4 314 320 TOTAL 2384 2534 2654 2591 2589 2605 2624 2632 FEMALES 0-4 158 153 152 152 151 151 151 151 5-9 157 159 152 151 151 151 151 151 10-14 147 157 151 151 151 151 151 151 15-19 171 158 149 151 151 151 151 151 20-24 184 157 149 152 151 151 151 151 25-29 186 147 152 152 151 151 151 151 30-34 198 170 159 152 151 151 151 151 35-39 214 183 156 10 150 151 151 151 40-44 154 184 157 148 10 151 151 151 45-49 140 195 1SS 148 150 151 151 151 50-54 132 208 1" 150 SO 150 150 150 55-59 140 148 165 155 149 149 149 150 60-64 137 132 14 151 147 148 149 149 65-69 115 119 171 149 143 1 148 148 70-74 112 118 173 14 140 145 1 146 7IS 169 221 357 417 428 439 453 61 TOTAL 2518 2610 2715 2671 266? 2687 27 2716 BIRTH RATE 12.8 11.8 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 9.7 10.1 12.5 11.9 11.5 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .32 .17 -.08 -.00 .03 .03 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.850 1.98B 2.061 2.060 2.058 2.057 2.057 etO) - BOTH SEXES 76.04 79.74 82.77 84.32 85.15 85.77 84.03 IIR - BOTH SEXES 5.9 4.2 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 102 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES; AND TERRITORIES FRANCE Projection (thousands) wlth NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL NIF 55170 56440 57655 5877 59831 60719 61396 61996 62540 63004 MALES 0-4 1940 1954 1938 1883 1852 1835 1838 1849 1857 1864 5-9 1896 1947 1954 1936 1881 1849 1832 1836 1847 1856 10-14 2160 1902 1947 1953 1936 1880 1848 1832 1835 1846 15-19 2180 2162 1P00 1944 1950 1932 1877 1846 1830 1833 20-24 2160 2185 2158 1895 1938 1944 1926 1871 1841 1825 25-29 2107 2168 2181 2151 1887 1929 1935 1918 1864 1833 30-34 2148 2112 2162 2172 2141 1878 1920 1926 1910 1857 35-39 2165 2145 2103 2151 2161 2130 1868 1911 1918 1902 40-44 1517 2151 2127 2085 2135 2145 2114 1855 1899 1906 45-49 1499 1496 2119 2098 2060 2110 2120 2092 1837 1881 50-54 1553 1458 1458 2070 2054 2018 2070 2083 2057 1808 55-59 1477 1482 1398 1405 2002 1990 1959 2012 2029 2007 60-64 1351 1371 1387 1318 1333 1906 1902 1879 1937 1959 65-69 722 1199 1233 1262 1213 1234 1775 1781 1770 1835 70-74 843 596 1010 1058 1102 1069 1099 1597 1618 1624 75+ 1184 1191 1065 1333 1593 1812 1917 2014 2512 2922 TOTAL 26900 27521 28140 28715 29238 29661 30000 30301 30559 30759 FEMALES 0-4 1848 1859 1844 1791 1761 1745 1747 1758 1766 1m 5-9 1806 1857 1861 1843 1790 1759 1743 1746 1757 1765 10-14 2048 1812 1858 1861 1843 1789 1759 1743 1746 1757 15-19 2085 2054 1813 1858 1861 1842 1789 1758 1742 1745 20-24 2137 2098 2057 1814 1857 1859 1840 1787 1757 1741 25-29 2101 2151 2101 2057 1813 1855 1856 1838 1785 1755 30-34 2122 2110 2152 2099 2054 1810 1852 1854 1836 1783 35-39 2091 2125 2107 2148 2095 2050 1806 1849 1851 1833 40-44 1458 2086 2117 2100 2141 2089 2044 1801 1844 1847 45-49 1471 1450 2073 2105 2090 2131 2079 2036 1795 1838 50-54 1577 1455 1435 2054 2088 2073 2115 2065 2023 1784 55-59 1578 1549 1432 1415 2029 2064 2051 2094 2046 2006 60-64 1554 1534 1513 1402 1390 1995 2032 2022 2067 2023 65-69 892 1486 1477 1464 1364 1354 1948 1989 1983 2032 70-74 1188 825 1392 1397 1396 1306 1302 1879 1925 1w27 75+ 2317 2467 2283 2653 3021 3338 3432 3476 4058 4637 TOTAL 28270 28919 29514 30062 30593 31058 31396 31695 31981 32245 BIRTH RATE 13.7 13.3 12.7 12.3 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 10.0 9.4 9.0 8.8 9.0 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. .37 .40 .37 .35 .29 .22 .19 .17 .15 NET MIGRATION RATE .8 .3 .1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .45 .43 .39 .36 .29 .22 .19 .17 .15 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.816 1.816 1.816 1.857 1.897 1.936 1.975 2.013 2.050 NRR .871 .873 .874 .895 .915 .935 .955 .974 .993 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.06 77.32 78.46 79.54 80.14 80.75 81.38 82.04 82.71 eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 61.97 63.12 64.16 65.17 65.71 66.28 66.86 67.46 68.08 IMR - BOTH SEXES 7.8 6.6 5.7 5.1 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.4 2.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0099 .0085 .0075 .0068 .0063 .0057 .0052 .0047 .0042 DEP. RATIO 51.9 51.1 52.5 53.3 53.1 52.8 56.8 61.0 65.2 69.5 COUNTRIES, idCONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 103 Sumry Projection for 25-Year Periods FRANCE AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL K4F 55170 58777 62540 62507 61601 61345 62181 S2358 HALES 0-4 1940 1883 1857 1851 1850 1851 1852 1852 5-9 1896 1936 1847 1844 1849 1851 1851 1851 10-14 2160 1953 1835 1844 1851 1851 1851 1850 15-19 2180 1944 1830 1853 1852 1850 1849 1849 20-24 2160 1895 1841 1856 1848 1846 1846 1846 25-29 2107 2151 1864 1843 1839 1839 1841 1842 30-34 2148 2172 1910 1828 1828 1834 1836 1837 35-39 2165 2151 1918 1809 1822 1830 1832 1833 40-44 1517 2085 1899 1795 1823 1826 1826 1826 45-49 1499 2098 1337 1796 1818 1814 1814 1815 50-54 1553 2070 2057 1800 1789 1791 1794 1798 55-59 1477 1405 2029 1811 1748 1756 1767 17m 60-64 1351 1318 1937 1770 1690 1714 173' 1735 65-69 722 1262 1770 1679 1617 1660 1673 1679 70-74 843 1058 1618 1517 1525 1570 1582 1590 75+ 1184 1333 2512 3627 3497 3548 3669 3739 TOTAL 26900 28715 30559 30525 3B,246 30432 30614 30712 FEMALES 0-4 1848 1791 1766 1760 1759 1760 1760 17E0 5-9 1806 1843 1757 1754 1758 1760 1760 1760 10-14 2048 1861 1746 1754 1760 1760 1760 1760 15-19 2085 1858 1742 1763 1762 1760 1759 1759 20-24 2137 1814 1757 1770 1762 1759 1758 1759 25-29 2101 2057 1785 1762 1757 1757 1758 1758 30-34 2122 2099 1836 1752 1751 1755 1757 1758 35-39 2091 2148 1851 1739 1749 1756 1757 1757 d-44 1458 2100 1844 1732 1756 1757 1755 1755 45-49 1471 2105 1795 1743 1760 1753 1752 1752 50-54 1577 2054 2023 1764 1747 1745 1746 1748 55-59 1578 1415 2046 1804 1729 1733 1740 1743 60-64 1554 1402 2067 1804 1706 1722 1733 1736 65-69 892 1464 1983 1775 1684 1716 1723 1724 70-74 1188 1397 1925 1692 1668 1699 1702 1704 75+ 2317 2653 4058 5613 5248 522' 5347 5413 TOTAL 28270 30062 31981 31982 31355 31413 31567 31646 BIRTH RATE 13.3 11.9 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 9.4 9.4 11.; 12.3 11.6 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .42 .25 -.00 -.06 .02 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.815 1.934 2.061 2.062 2.061 2.060 2.060 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 77.30 80.78 8&.38 84.68 a5.38 85.90 86.11 IMR - BOTH SEXES 6.7 4.2 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 104 COUNIRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORRIS GAZA STRIP Projection (thousnds) wIth NIRRI by 2035 AGE GROUP l985 l990 199S 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 517 S8o 684 79 909 1044 1191 13M4 1499 A650 MALES 0-4 51 59 67 72 78 85 91 92 92 89 5-9 38 48 S5 T 6 71 77 84 90 92 92 10-14 35 37 47 56 65 70 7T 84 90 92 15-19 29 34 36 46 S5 64 70 76 83 89 20-24 23 26 32 34 45 54 63 69 76 83 25-29 10 20 24 29 32 43 53 62 68 75 30-34 6 7 18 22 8s 31 42 52 61 68 35-39 7 4 5 16 20 27 30 41 51 61 40-44 8 6 3 4 15 20 26 29 41 51 45-49 8 7 5 3 4 1S 19 25 29 40 50-54 8 8 7 5 2 1 14 l8 25 28 55-59 7 8 7 6 4 2 3 1s 17 24 60-64 5 7 7 6 6 4 2 3 13 16 65-69 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 2 3 11 70-74 2 3 3 4 5 4 4 3 1 2 75+ 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 TOTAL 245 280 328 381 442 511 s87 666 747 826 FEEMALES 0-4 48 s5 65 70 75 82 s8 8S a8 85 5-9 37 46 55 63 68 74 81 86 88 88 10-14 34 36 45 54 63 68 74 81 86 a8 15-19 28 32 35 4 54 62 67 74 80 86 20-24 23 26 31 33 43 S2 61 67 73 80 25-29 16 20 24 29 31 42 51 60 66 73 30-34 15 14 19 23 28 30 41 51 60 66 35-39 15 13 13 1s 22 27 30 40 SO 60 40-44 13 14 13 12 17 21 26 29 40 50 45-49 12 12 13 12 12 17 21 26 29 39 50-54 9 11 1I 13 12 11 16 20 25 29 55-59 7 9 10 11 12 11 1 16 20 25 60-64 6 7 8 10 10 1 10 10 1s 19 65-69 4 5 6 7 9 9 10 10 10 14 70-74 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 75+ 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 1 13 15 TOTAL 272 308 357 409 467 53 604 678 752 824 BIRTH RATE 45.6 4.3 40.6 37.8 35.4 32.6 29.1 25.8 22.4 DEATH RATE 8.8 7.8 6.6 S.7 5.0 4.5 3.9 3.S 3.2 RATE OF MAT. INC. 3.67 3.65 3.39 3.22 3.04 2.82 2.52 2.23 1.92 NET MIGRATION RATE -10.9 -6.3 -5.4 -3.9 -2.7 -1.8 -1.1 -. .0 GROWTH RATE 2.59 3.03 2.85 2.82 2.77 2.64 2.41 2.18 1.92 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.760 6.660 5.860 5.260 4.660 4.060 3.460 2.980 2.566 NRR 2.907 2.856 2.649 2.423 2.164 1.9C0 1.631 1.416 1.228 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 62.96 64.90 66.89 68.85 70.12 71.43 72.81 74.24 75.75 eC0S) - BOTH SEXES 54.13 54.81 55.79 56.97 57.83 58.73 59.68 60.68 61.74 INR - 80TH SEXES 59.0 48.1 39.0 31.5 26.9 22.4 17.8 13.2 8.6 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0792 .0622 .0487 .0384 .0329 .0274 .0218 .0163 .0108 DEP. RATIO 101.3 107.3 113.4 109.6 100.9 90.5 81.4 71.7 62.5 55.5 COUNMIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERITORIES 105 S&umry Projectiei for 25-Year Periods GAZA STRIP AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N4F 517 789 1499 21ff 2675 2857 2915 2941 MALES 0-4 51 n 92 90 88 88 88 88 5-9 38 66 92 89 8a 8o, 88 88 10-14 35 56 90 8S 87 88 88 88 15-19 29 46 83 84 87 88 88 88 20-24 23 34 76 89 89 88 88 88 25-29 10 29 68 91 89 88 87 87 30-34 6 22 61 90 88 87 87 87 35-39 7 16 51 se 84 86 87 87 40-44 8 4 41 81 82 86 87 87 45-49 8 3 29 73 86 87 87 86 50-54 8 5 25 65 88 87 8S 85 55-59 7 6 17 57 85 84 83 84 60-64 5 6 13 45 80 78 81 82 65-69 4 6 3 34 71 74 78 79 70-74 2 4 1 21 59 72 75 75 75+ 2 4 5 24 87 150 165 171 TOTAL 245 381 747 1105 1337 1417 1440 1450 FEMALES 0-4 48 70 88 86 84 84 84 84 5-9 37 63 88 8S 83 84 84 84 10-14 34 54 86 81 83 84 84 84 15-19 28 44 80 80 83 84 84 84 20-24 23 33 73 85 85 84 84 84 25-29 16 29 66 87 86 84 84 84 30-34 15 23 60 87 84 83 83 84 35-39 15 18 50 85 81 82 83 84 40-44 13 12 40 79 79 83 84 84 45-49 12 12 29 72 84 84 84 83 50-54 9 13 25 64 86 84 83 83 55-59 7 11 20 57 85 83 82 82 60-64 6 10 15 47 81 78 81 82 65-69 4 7 10 36 74 76 80 82 70-74 3 5 9 24 64 78 80 81 75+ 2 5 13 35 116 205 231 243 TOTAL 272 409 752 1090 1338 1440 1475 1490 BIRTN RATE 43.2 31.4 18.6 14.0 12.4 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.6 4.4 3.6 6.2 9.8 11.1 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -7.3 -1.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.82 2.57 1.53 .79 .26 .08 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.322 3.804 2.188 2.068 2.063 2.059 2.058 6(0) - BOTH SEXES 65.10 71.83 77.69 81.27 83.29 84.84 85.45 INN - BOTH SEXES 48.1 22.1 6.7 3.6 2.8 2.2 2.1 106 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRIrORIES GEORGIA Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 1990 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 5299 5462 5616 5792 5962 61t3 6256 6389 6521 6651 MALES 0-4 234 224 215 214 217 220 221 219 217 217 5-9 220 231 221 214 213 216 220 220 219 217 10-14 216 218 229 221 214 213 216 220 220 219 15-19 214 214 216 228 220 213 212 215 219 220 20-24 200 210 210 215 22t' 219 212 211 214 218 25-29 222 195 205 209 213 225 218 211 210 213 30-34 198 217 191 204 207 212 224 216 210 209 35-39 171 193 213 189 202 205 210 223 215 209 40-44 122 167 189 210 187 200 203 208 221 214 45-49 136 119 163 185 206 183 197 200 206 C18 50-54 161 131 114 157 180 201 179 192 196 202 53-59 138 151 1?.3 108 149 171 192 172 185 190 60-64 128 125 137 112 99 138 160 180 162 176 65-69 57 110 108 119 99 88 124 145 165 150 70-74 39 45 88 88 98 82 75 107 126 146 75+ 60 53 54 89 111 131 132 127 152 188 TOTAL 2514 2600 2676 2761 2842 2919 2994 3067 3138 3206 FEMALES 0-4 223 214 206 205 207 211 211 209 208 207 5-9 212 221 212 205 204 207 210 211 209 207 .0-14 208 211 219 212 205 204 207 210 211 209 15-19 198 206 209 219 212 205 204 207 210 211 20-24 206 194 203 209 219 212 205 204 207 210 25-29 237 202 191 203 208 218 211 204 203 206 30-34 211 233 200 191 202 208 218 211 204 203 35-30 184 209 231 199 190 202 207 218 210 204 40-44 134 182 207 230 198 189 201 207 217 210 45-49 155 132 180 205 228 197 188 200 206 216 50-54 178 152 130 178 203 226 195 186 198 204 55-59 160 174 148 127 175 200 223 192 184 196 60-64 164 153 167 144 124 171 195 218 189 181 65-69 101 153 145 160 138 120 165 190 213 185 70-74 82 89 138 133 149 130 113 157 181 205 '15+ 130 138 154 212 256 296 307 298 332 390 TOTAL 2785 2862 2940 3031 3120 3194 3262 3322 3383 3444 BIRTH RATE 16.8 15.6 14.9 14.6 14.5 14.1 13.7 13.3 13.0 DEATH RATE 9.3 8.9 8.8 8.8 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.0 RATE OF MAT. INC. .75 .67 .62 .58 .50 .46 .42 .41 .39 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.4 -1.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .61 .56 .62 .58 .50 .46 .42 .41 .39 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.169 2.107 2.096 2.088 2.083 2.079 2.074 2.069 2.064 NRR 1.025 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 71.51 73.01 74.44 75.84 76.69 77.58 78.51 79.47 80.47 eIS) - BOTH SEXES 58.70 59.87 61.01 62.16 62.86 63.59 64.35 65.14 65.97 IR- BOTH SEXES 21o5 17.5 14.2 11.7 10.1 8.6 7.1 5.5 4.0 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0261 .0216 .0176 .014 .0126 .0109 .0091 .0073 .0055 DEP. RATIO 50.7 53.6 54.9 55.7 54.9 53.0 54.3 56.7 60.3 61.8 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND 1ERRITORIES 107 Sunmary Projection for 25-Year Perlods GEORG1A AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N4F 5299 5792 652f 697 7143 7252 7320 7353 MALES 0-4 234 214 217 219 219 219 218 218 5-9 220 214 219 219 219 218 218 218 10-14 216 221 220 219 218 218 218 218 15-19 214 228 219 218 218 218 218 218 20-24 200 215 214 216 217 218 218 218 25-29 222 209 210 215 217 217 217 217 30-34 198 204 210 216 217 217 217 217 35-39 171 189 215 216 216 216 216 216 40-44 122 210 221 214 213 214 215 215 45-49 136 .185 206 208 211 213 214 214 50-54 161 157 196 201 208 211 212 212 55-59 138 108 185 196 205 207 208 209 60-64 128 112 162 195 200 202 203 204 65-69 57 119 165 189 189 192 195 197 70-74 39 88 126 161 172 179 184 186 75+ 60 89 152 285 355 396 421 434 TOTAL 2514 2761 3138 3386 3492 3554 3593 3612 FEMALES 0-4 223 205 208 209 209 209 209 208 5-9 212 205 209 209 209 208 208 208 10-14 208 212 211 209 208 208 208 208 15-19 198 219 210 208 208 208 208 208 20-24 206 209 207 207 208 208 208 208 25-29 237 203 203 207 208 208 208 208 30-34 211 191 204 209 209 208 208 208 35-39 184 199 210 210 208 208 208 208 40-44 134 230 217 209 207 207 208 208 45-49 155 205 206 205 205 207 207 208 50-54 178 178 198 200 205 207 207 207 55-59 160 127 184 199 205 206 206 206 60-64 64 144 189 203 205 205 205 205 65-69 101 160 213 206 202 202 203 204 70-74 82 133 181 190 194 197 200 201 75+ 130 212 332 491 561 601 624 635 TOTAL 2785 3031 3383 3572 3651 3698 3727 3740 BIRTH RATE 15.7 14.0 12.7 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.0 9.3 10.1 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET NIGiRATI0N RATE -.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .59 .47 .26 .11 .06 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.124 2.079 2.062 2.059 2.058 2.056 2.056 e;O) - BOTH SEXES 73.02 77.66 81.54 83.63 84.75 85.58 85.91 HNR - BOTH SEXES 17.8 8.6 3.5 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 108 COUNTRIRS, ECONOMIES, AND TBRRIIDRIES GERMANY Projection, (thousands) with NRR-I by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M F 77698 79484 80537 81126 81457 81253 80855 80380 79723 79082 MALES 0-4 2144 2321 2403 2280 2127 2062 2098 2166 2200 2194 5-9 2040 2221 2345 2408 2281 2126 2061 2096 2164 2198 10-14 2238 2100 2240 2350 2410 2281 2126 2060 2095 2164 15-19 3177 2294 2116 22 2349 2408 2279 2123 2058 2093 20-24 3484 3270 2321 2120 2241 2344 2401 2272 2117 2053 25-29 3115 3604 3300 2326 2118 2234 2335 2391 2263 2109 30-34 2849 3219 3626 3297 2321 2111 2225 2325 2382 2254 35-39 2463 2920 3229 3615 3285 2311 2102 2215 2315 2372 40-44 2736 2502 2914 3209 3592 3262 2296 2088 2201 2301 45-49 3089 2728 2477 2879 3173 3552 3228 2273 2068 2182 50-54 2387 3018 2666 2424 2823 3113 3488 3172 2236 2037 55-59 2146 2281 2900 2573 2349 2739 3026 3396 3094 2184 60-64 1652 1969 2139 2741 2449 2243 2624 2907 3273 2991 65-69 993 1466 1793 1955 2534 2276 2096 2465 2746 3107 70-74 1222 822 1239 15S0 1720 2250 2039 1894 2248 2526 75. 1692 1748 1527 1755 2237 2692 3414 3740 3786 4140 TOTAL 37428 38503 39236 39724 40009 40005 39838 39585 39246 38907 FEMALES 0-4 2003 2198 2272 2154 2010 1948 1982 2046 2078 2072 5-9 1915 2083 2223 2279 2157 2010 1947 1980 2045 2076 10-14 2107 1977 2103 2229 2281 2157 2010 1947 1980 2044 15-19 2956 2179 2000 2110 2232 2282 2157 2009 1946 1979 20-24 3232 3088 2222 2013 2115 2233 2281 2155 2007 1945 25-29 2875 3386 3137 2237 2019 2116 2231 2278 2152 2005 30-34 2696 2991 3421 3145 2240 2018 2113 2228 2275 2150 35-39 2318 2769 3011 3421 3142 2237 2015 2109 2224 2271 40-44 2607 2353 2m 3003 3411 3132 2230 2009 2104 2219 45-49 2956 2607 2343 27S7 2988 3393 3117 2220 2001 2096 50-54 2329 2926 2580 2320 2732 2963 3367 3094 2205 1969 55-59 2371 2285 2875 2541 2289 2698 2928 3330 3064 2185 60-64 2507 2296 2222 2808 2490 2247 2652 2883 3284 3026 65-69 1635 2377 2195 2141 2721 2419 2189 2590 2822 3224 70-74 2184 1489 2199 2058 2029 2591 2314 2103 2500 2736 75. 3577 3978 3724 4187 4592 4805 5484 5813 5790 6158 TOTAL 40270 60981 41300 41402 41448 41248 41017 40795 40477 40175 BIRTH RATE 11.4 11.7 11.0 10.2 9.9 10.1 10.5 10.7 10.8 DEATH RATE 11.3 10.6 10.1 9.7 10.5 11.2 11.7 12.4 12.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. .01 .11 .10 .06 -.06 -.10 -.12 -.16 -.16 NET MIGRATION RATE 4.4 1.5 .S .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .45 .26 .15 .08 -.05 -.10 -.12 -.16 -.16 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.500 1.600 1.671 1.740 1.806 1.870 1.932 1.992 2.050 NRR .716 .766 .801 .836 .868 .900 .930 .960 .989 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 75.25 76.82 78.21 79.41 80.02 80.65 81.29 81.96 82.64 (15) - WTH SEXES 61.22 62.64 63.93 65.0S 65.60 66.18 66.77 67.38 68.02 INR - B0TH SEXES 8.4 6.9 5.8 5.1 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.4 2.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0106 .0088 .0076 .0068 .0063 .00S8 .0053 .0047 .0042 DEP. RATIO 44.0 45.3 48.4 50.8 55.6 57.4 58.2 62.5 68.7 77.9 COUNTRIEAS, B(XNOMIDS, AND TERRIrORIES 109 St_ry ProJectfon for 2s5-.Y Prfod, GERMANY AGE GROW l95 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL NF 77696 81126 79723 TWO 71759 71774 72132 7345 NALES 0-4 2144 226 2200 2161 2153 2154 2156 2156 5-9 2040 2408 216" 2137 2147 2154 2155 2155 10-14 2238 2350 209M 2126 2151 2157 2156 2155 15-19 3177 2243 2058 2150 2162 2158 2154 2153 20-24 3484 2120 2117 2180 2164 2152 2149 2149 25-29 3115 2326 22 2163 2147 2140 2142 2144 30-34 2849 3297 2382 2142 2119 2130 2137 2140 35-39 2463 3615 2315 2067 2101 2128 2135 2135 40-44 2736 3209 2201 2020 2117 2131 2129 2127 45-49 3089 2879 2068 2067 2141 2124 2115 2114 50-54 2387 2424 2236 218? 2120 2092 2088 2092 55-59 2146 2573 3094 2262 2050 2036 2052 2062 60-64 1652 2741 3273 2141 1933 1978 2012 2022 65-69 993 1955 26 1953 183 1929 1955 1959 70-74 1222 1550 2248 1716 1760 1851 1854 1855 75. 1692 1755 3786 49U6 4291 4163 4271 4353 TOTAL 37428 39724 39246 365 35378 35477 35661 35m FENALES 0-4 2003 2154 2078 2041 2033 2034 2036 2036 5-9 1915 2279 2045 2019 2026 2034 2036 2036 10-14 2107 2229 1980 200 2033 2037 2037 2036 15-19 2956 2110 1946 2033 2043 2039 2036 2035 20-24 3232 2013 2007 2069 2049 2037 2034 2034 25-29 2875 2237 2152 2073 2037 2030 2031 2033 30-34 2696 3145 2275 203 2015 2025 2031 2033 35-39 2318 3621 2224 1972 2002 2028 2033 2033 40-44 2607 3003 2104 1935 2024 2036 2033 2031 45-49 2956 2757 2001 1990 2056 2039 2028 2026 50-54 2329 2320 2205 2126 2054 2023 2017 2020 55-59 2371 2541 3064 2233 2011 1993 2006 2014 60-64 2507 2608 3264 2163 1932 1971 2000 2008 65-69 1635 2141 2822 2019 1877 1976 1996 1997 70-74 2184 2058 2500 1879 1900 1962 1977 1972 75+ 3577 4187 570 7377 6287 6014 6138 6228 TOTAL 40270 41402 40477 37976 36381 36298 36470 36573 BIRTH RATE 11.4 10.3 10.9 11.6 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 10.6 11.1 13.6 13.1 11.7 11.5 11.5 MET NIGRATION RATE 2.1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTN RATE .29 -.07 -.27 -.15 .00 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.579 1.866 2.06T 2.069 2.068 2.067 2.067 eCO) - 80TH SEXES 76.77 80.66 0.30 84.62 8S.33 85.86 86.08 INR - BOTH SEXES 7.0 4.2 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 110 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES GREECE Projection (thousands) with NRR=I by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1,90 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 9934 10067 10168 10246 10323 10354 10328 10256 10175 10111 MALES 0-4 341 274 277 276 286 284 275 269 270 278 5-9 369 342 275 277 276 285 283 274 268 270 10-14 362 371 343 275 277 276 285 283 274 268 15-19 401 363 371 343 275 277 275 285 283 274 20-24 375 403 363 371 342 274 276 275 284 282 25-29 346 377 404 363 370 341 273 275 273 283 30-34 337 348 378 403 362 368 339 272 274 272 35-39 332 338 348 377 402 361 367 338 271 273 40-44 276 331 337 346 374 399 358 364 336 269 45-49 314 273 327 333 342 370 395 355 361 333 50-54 327 308 268 321 327 336 364 388 349 355 55-59 303 315 297 259 312 318 327 355 379 341 60-64 223 286 299 283 248 299 305 315 342 367 65-69 176 203 262 276 263 232 280 288 298 326 70-74 173 151 176 231 246 236 209 255 264 275 75+ 233 262 263 286 351 411 442 437 470 508 TOTAL 4887 4945 4987 5019 5053 5066 5055 5026 4997 4974 FEMALES 0-4 318 257 260 259 268 266 257 251 253 260 5-9 345 320 258 260 259 267 265 257 251 252 10-14 340 346 321 259 260 259 267 265 257 251 15-19 371 342 347 322 259 260 258 267 265 257 20-24 350 375 344 348 322 259 260 258 267 265 25-29 351 355 377 345 349 322 258 260 258 267 30-34 328 354 356 377 345 348 321 258 259 258 35-39 335 330 355 356 377 345 348 321 257 259 40-44 293 334 329 354 355 376 343 347 320 257 45-49 343 292 333 327 352 353 374 342 345 319 50-54 356 339 289 329 325 349 351 371 340 343 55-59 327 349 334 285 325 321 345 347 368 337 60-64 245 317 340 326 279 320 316 340 342 363 65-69 214 233 304 329 317 272 312 309 333 336 70-74 215 196 217 287 313 303 261 300 298 324 75+ 318 382 418 463 564 669 737 737 765 790 TOTAL 5047 5122 5181 5227 5270 5287 5273 5230 5178 5137 BIRTH RATE 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.2 10.3 10.6 DEATH RATE 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.6 11.9 11.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. .15 .14 .11 .13 .06 -.05 -.14 -.16 -.13 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.2 .6 .4 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .26 .20 .15 .15 .06 -.05 -.14 -.16 -.13 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.520 1.520 1.520 1.620 1.715 1.805 1.892 1.974 2.052 NRR .719 .721 .723 .772 .819 .863 .906 .946 .985 etO) - BOTH SEXES 76.37 77.62 78.72 79.78 80.36 80.96 81.57 82.19 62.83 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 62.75 63.80 64.74 65.68 66.16 66.65 67.15 67.67 68.20 INR - BOTH SEXES 12.6 10.5 8.8 7.4 6.5 5.6 4.7 3.8 2.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0155 .0130 .0110 .0095 .0084 .0074 .0063 .0052 .0041 DEP. RATIO 52.1 49.6 49.7 51.4 55.4 57.0 60.0 62.0 64.8 69.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 111 Sumnary Projection for 25-Year Perlods GREECE AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2i25 2150 TOTAL N+F 9934 10246 10175 9690 9130 9129 9180 9207 MALES 0-4 341 276 270 273 275 276 276 276 5-9 369 277 268 274 276 276 275 275 10-14 362 275 274 277 277 276 275 275 15-19 401 343 283 280 276 275 275 275 20-24 375 371 284 277 274 274 275 275 25-29 346 363 273 268 272 273 274 274 30-34 337 403 274 266 272 274 274 273 35-39 332 377 271 270 274 274 273 273 40-44 276 346 336 278 276 272 271 272 45-49 314 333 361 278 271 269 269 270 50-54 327 321 349 264 260 265 267 268 55-59 303 259 379 260 254 261 264 264 60-64 223 283 342 251 253 258 259 258 65-69 176 276 298 299 251 251 250 250 70-74 173 231 264 301 237 235 235 236 75e 233 286 470 654 526 526 548 559 TOTAL 4887 5019 4997 4771 4523 4534 4560 4573 FEMALES 0-4 318 259 253 256 257 258 258 258 5-9 345 260 251 257 258 258 258 258 10-14 340 259 257 259 259 258 258 258 15-19 371 322 265 262 258 257 257 258 20-24 350 348 267 259 257 257 257 258 25-29 351 345 258 252 255 257 258 258 30-34 328 377 259 250 256 258 258 257 35-39 335 356 257 256 259 258 257 257 40-44 293 354 320 264 261 258 257 257 45-49 343 327 345 265 258 255 256 256 50-54 356 329 340 255 250 253 255 256 55-59 327 285 368 255 247 253 255 256 f60G - 64 245 326 342 251 251 255 255 254 65-69 214 329 333 307 256 255 252 252 70-74 215 287 298 325 253 249 248 249 75+ 318 463 765 948 772 755 782 793 TOTAL 5047 5227 5178 4920 4606 4595 4621 4633 BIRTH RATE 10.7 10.5 10.8 11.4 11.7 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 9.3 10.8 12.7 13.8 11.7 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .7 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .21 -.03 -.20 -.24 .00 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.523 1.789 2.075 2.079 2.078 2.077 2.077 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 77.58 80.97 83.46 84.70 85.38 85.88 86.10 IMR - BOTH SEXES 10.6 5.7 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 112 COUNNIRIME ECONOMIES, AND 7ERRITORIES HUNGARY Projection (thousands) with NRRIt by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL uF 10657s 10553 10291 10154 10069 10008 9952 9912 9881 9864 MALES 0-4 310 319 314 313 316 309 299 296 299 306 5-9 430 308 308 308 309 315 308 299 295 299 10-14 406 428 300 304 306 308 314 307 298 295 15-19 365 403 419 295 301 304 307 313 306 298 20-24 330 360 387 409 290 298 302 305 312 305 25-29 397 324 340 375 402 286 295 300 303 310 30-34 452 390 306 329 368 397 283 293 298 302 35-39 385 443 373 296 323 363 393 281 291 296 40-44 351 376 427 363 290 317 359 389 278 289 45-49 308 340 360 414 354 284 311 353 383 275 50-54 314 294 323 345 398 342 275 303 344 375 55-59 309 293 274 302 325 378 326 263 291 332 60-64 262 278 263 248 276 299 350 304 248 276 65-69 154 240 237 226 215 242 266 314 276 228 70-74 170 120 188 187 181 175 201 224 269 240 75 . 210 208 175 208 227 238 246 276 316 381 TOTAL 5172 5122 4993 4923 4881 4855 4833 4819 4809 4807 FEMALES 0-4 298 301 296 295 298 291 282 278 282 288 5-9 409 296 291 291 292 297 290 281 278 281 10-14 384 408 289 287 289 291 296 290 281 278 15-19 344 382 398 284 285 287 290 296 289 281 20-24 312 341 366 390 279 282 286 289 m 289 25-29 383 309 322 355 384 277 281 285 289 295 30-34 442 380 293 313 351 381 275 280 285 288 35-39 380 438 368 287 310 348 380 275 279 284 40-44 356 376 429 362 284 307 346 378 273 278 45-49 335 351 368 422 358 281 304 343 375 272 50-54 343 327 342 361 415 352 277 300 339 371 55-59 350 331 317 332 351 405 345 271 295 335 60-64 346 332 315 303 319 339 392 335 265 289 65-69 203 317 305 292 283 300 321 374 321 256 70-74 240 174 274 268 260 255 274 296 349 303 75. 362 368 326 390 432 459 481 521 576 669 TOTAL 5485 5431 5298 5232 5188 5153 5119 5093 5073 5057 BIRTH RATE 11.9 12.1 12.1 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.7 11.8 12.1 DEATH RATE 13.6 13.3 12.9 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.5 RATE OF AT. INC. -.16 -.12 -.07 -.07 -.08 -.09 -.08 -.06 -.04 MET MIGRATION RATE -.3 -3.8 -2.0 -1.0 -.4 -.2 .0 .0 .0 GRORH RATE -.20 -.50 -.27 -.17 -.12 -.11 -.08 -.06 -.04 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.810 1.810 1.810 1.856 1.900 1.944 1.986 2.028 2.069 IRR .854 .854 .857 .881 .904 .927 .949 .970 .992 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 70.15 71.02 72.09 73.29 74.28 75.32 76.42 77.58 78.80 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 56.86 57.52 58.39 59.42 60.31 61.25 62.25 63.31 64.43 10R - BOTH SEXES 17.0 14.4 12.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.1 5.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0205 .0175 .0148 .0125 .0113 .0102 .0091 .0079 .0068 DEP. RATIO 50.5 49.3 47.2 49.6 51.2 53.3 56.1 61.0 63.6 63.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 113 Suuuary Projectlon for 25-Year Perfods HUNGARY AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M.F 10657 10154 9881 9781 9781 9912 10029 10091 MALES 0-4 310 313 299 301 302 303 303 303 5-9 430 308 295 301 303 303 303 303 10-14 406 304 29 304 304 303 303 303 15-19 365 295 306 307 303 302 302 302 20-24 330 409 312 304 301 301 302 302 25-29 397 375 303 296 298 300 301 301 30-34 452 329 298 291 298 300 301 300 35-39 385 296 291 293 299 300 300 300 40-44 351 363 278 299 301 299 298 298 45-49 308 414 383 302 296 295 296 296 50-54 314 345 344 290 285 289 292 294 55-59 309 302 291 278 275 284 288 289 60-64 282 248 248 261 269 279 282 283 65-69 154 226 276 235 263 270 272 273 70-74 170 187 269 29 247 251 254 257 75+ 210 208 316 448 488 529 573 596 TOTAL 5172 4923 480 4801 4832 4909 4969 5001 FEMALES 0-4 298 295 282 283 284 285 285 285 5-9 409 291 278 283 285 28r. 285 285 10-14 384 287 281 286 286 285 285 285 15-19 344 284 289 289 286 284 284 284 20-24 312 390 295 287 284 284 284 284 25-29 383 355 289 281 282 284 284 284 30-34 442 313 285 277 282 284 284 284 35-39 380 287 279 279 284 285 284 284 40-44 356 362 273 287 287 284 283 284 45-49 335 422 375 291 285 282 282 283 50-54 343 361 339 283 277 279 282 282 55-59 350 332 295 276 271 278 281 282 60-64 346 303 265 267 271 278 280 280 65-69 203 292 321 256 274 278 277 278 70-74 240 268 349 338 272 271 272 274 75+ 362 390 576 717 740 777 826 852 TOTAL 5485 5232 5073 4979 4949 5003 5059 5090 BIRTH RATE 12.1 11.9 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 13.2 12.7 12.5 12.1 11.4 11.3 11.5 MET MIGRATION RATE -2.0 - .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE -.32 -.11 -.04 .00 .05 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.790 1.939 2.080 2.077 2.075 2.073 2.072 eCO) -BOTH SEXES 71.07 75.36 80.11 82.75 84.21 85.29 85.72 INR -BOTH SEXES 14.5 8.1 4.3 2.9 2.4. 2.1 2.0 114 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES ICELAND Projoction (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 241 255 269 282 295 306 317 327 337 346 MALES 0-4 11 10 11 11 1 1 11 I1 11 11 11 5-9 1 1 1 1 11 11 11 11 11 11 1 1 II 10-14 11 1 1 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 15-19 11 I11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 20-24 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 25-29 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 11 11 11 1 II1 30-34 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 35-39 8 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 40-44 6 a 10 11 1t 11 11 11 11 11 45-49 5 6 8 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 50-54 6 5 6 8 10 11 11 11 11 11 55-59 5 6 5 6 7 9 10 10 10 10 60-64 5 5 5 4 5 7 9 10 10 10 65-69 4 5 4 5 4 5 7 9 9 10 70-74 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 6 8 9 75+ 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 10 13 TOTAL 121 128 135 142 148 153 159 164 168 172 FEMALES 0-4 11 10 1i 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 5-9 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 30-14 9 10 101 1 10 10 11 101 10 1 15-19 8 9 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 20-24 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 25-29 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 II 30-34 9 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 35-39 5 6 10 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 '-0-44 6 8 9 10 11 11 10 10 II 10 45-49 5 6 a 9 10 11 11 10 10 11 50-54 6 5 6 8 9 10 11 11 10 10 55-59 5 6 5 6 8 9 10 11 11 10 60-64 5 5 6 5 6 8 9 10 11 11 65-69 4 5 5 6 5 6 7 8 9 10 70-74 3 4 4 4 5 4 5 7 8 9 75+ 6 6 7 8 9 11 11 12 15 18 TOTAL 120 127 134 141 147 153 158 163 169 173 BIRTH RATE 16.9 16.7 15.9 15.2 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.1 12.8 DEATH RATE 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.7 RATE OF MAT. INC. 1.02 .99 .93 .85 .76 .70 .63 .59 .51 NET NIGRATION RATE .8 .8 .7 .0 .0 .0 .C .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 1.10 1.07 1.00 .85 .76 .70 .63 .59 .51 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.050 2.075 2.075 2.075 2.075 2.075 2.075 2.074 2.074 NRR .980 .996 .997 .f ^7 .998 .998 .999 .999 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 77.54 78.36 79.20 80.05 80.60 81.17 81.75 82.35 82.97 et15) - BOTH SEXES 63.40 63.85 64.67 65.51 66.04 66.58 67.15 67.73 68.33 IHR - BOTH SEXES 7.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0092 .0055 .0053 .0051 .0049 .0047 .0045 .0043 .0041 DEP. RATIO 57.1 55.6 54.1 53.1 51.4 50.3 51.6 54.6 58.8 63.? COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES. AND TERRITORIES 115 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods ICELAND AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 241 282 337 362 368 371 373 374 HALES 034 8 11 ¶1 11 11 11 11 11 5-9 11 11 11 11 11 11 I11 11 10-14 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 15-19 1 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 20-24 6 8 11 11 11 11 11 11 25-29 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 30-34 10 11 11 01 11 10 10 11 35-39 a 11 11 11 11 1 1 1 1 11 40-44 6 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 45-49 5 10 11 0I 11 11 11 11 50-54 6 4 11 11 11 9i 11 11 55-59 5 6 10 11 11 11 11 11 60T64 5 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 65-49 4 5 9 10 10 10 10 10 70-74 3 4 a 9 9 9 10 10 75+ 4 6 10 19 21 22 22 23 5OTAL 121 142 168 180 183 184 185 185 FEMALES 0-4 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 5-9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 50-14 10 10 10 II II 11 11 11 15-19 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 20-24 5I 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 25-29 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 30-34 9 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 T5-39 8 11 16 10 10 18 10 10 40-B R 6 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 D5-49 5 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 NE0-54 6 8 10 10 10 10 0 10 10 55-59 5 6 11 10 10 10 10 10 60-64 5 5 11 10 10 10 10 10 65-69 4 6 9 11 10 10 10 10 70-74 3 4 8 9 10 1O 1O 10 75+ 6 a is 27 30 31 32 32 TOTAL 120 141 169 182 186 187 188 189 BIRTH RATE 16.5 14.0 12.3 11.9 tl.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 6.7 7.0 9.5 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.06 .71 .29 .07 .03 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.071 2.075 2.073 2.071 2.070 2.069 2.069 etO) - ROTH SEXES 78.40 81.23 83.58 84.76 85.42 85.90 86.10 INR - BOTH SEXES 5.0 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 116 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrroRIES IRAN, ISLAMIC REP. OF Projection (thousands) wfth NRR-1 by 2060 AGE GROW 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL MiF 46374 55779 66436 7&64 91593 106929 124609 144534 166380 189849 MALES 0-4 4057 5347 6127 6791 7629 8775 10119 1144 12631 13706 5-9 3379 3958 5226 6015 6697 7544 8700 10056 11394 12603 10-14 2978 3360 3933 5198 5988 6672 7521 8677 10036 11379 15-19 2554 2966 3341 3913 5175 5964 6647 7495 8652 10011 20-24 2177 2546 2946 3321 3892 5147 5933 6614 7460 8612 25-29 1835 2173 2529 2929 3302 3q70 51 L8 5900 6578 7419 30-34 1565 1832 2160 2515 2912 3283 3848 5089 5866 6540 35-39 1216 1559 1818 2145 2498 2893 3262 3822 5056 5828 40-44 916 1207 1542 1799 2124 2474 2865 3230 3786 5008 45-49 738 901 1187 1518 1771 2091 2436 2821 3182 3729 50-54 620 716 876 l155 1479 1727 2039 2375 2751 3103 55-59 505 587 652 838 1109 1420 1658 1958 2281 2643 60-64 399 463 544 637 785 1039 1331 1554 1836 2141 65-69 297 350 411 487 573 708 037 1201 1404 1660 70-74 199 243 290 343 411 485 599 793 1018 1191 75+ 199 243 299 366 445 538 641 782 1003 1288 TOTAL 23635 28451 33911 39969 46791 54628 63652 73810 84933 96862 FEMALES 0-4 3839 5191 5938 6570 7367 8439 9692 10913 11998 12968 5-9 3145 3757 5087 5844 6494 7296 8373 9634 10867 11966 10-14 2806 3129 3734 5061 5821 6472 7275 8354 9617 10853 15-19 2459 2793 3109 3714 5039 5799 6450 7256 8336 9602 20o24 2114 2448 2770 3086 3691 5011 5771 6425 7233 8317 25-29 1n79 2104 2423 2745 3062 3665 4981 5743 6400 7211 30-34 1516 1767 2079 2398 2719 3037 3639 4952 5715 6376 35-39 1176 1500 1742 2052 2370 2692 3010 3611 4920 5686 0-44 886 1158 1473 1713 2022 2339 2660 2978 3578 4882 45-49 719 866 1131 1442 1679 1985 2300 2619 2938 3535 50-54 612 696 839 1097 1400 1634 1936 2247 2565 2882 55-59 508 583 663 801 1050 1345 1574 1870 2177 2491 60-64 409 469 540 617 748 985 1267 1490 1778 2079 65-69 310 360 414 479 550 672 892 1156 1370 1647 70-74 218 249 291 338 394 458 567 762 1000 1200 75+ 241 258 289 3Wn 395 472 569 714 956 1292 TOTAL 22739 27328 32525 38294 44802 52301 60958 70724 81447 92987 BIRTH RATE 46.0 43.6 40.3 38.0 36.9 36.0 34.5 32.5 30.4 DEATH RATE 9.7 8.7 7.5 6.5 5.9 5.4 4.8 4.4 4.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.63 3.49 3.27 3.14 3.09 3.06 2.97 2.81 2.64 NET MIGRATION RATE .6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.69 3.50 3.28 3.15 3.10 3.06 2.97 2.82 2.64 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.400 6.100 5.800 5.500 5.200 4.900 4.600 4.300 4.000 NRR 2.653 2.574 2.49 2.421 2.324 2.223 2.118 2.009 1.897 eCO) - ROTH SEXES 61.98 63.56 65.29 67.08 68.48 69.91 71.39 72.90 74.46 e(1s) - BOTH SEXES 56.22 57.02 57.66 58.27 58.71 59.18 59.66 60.17 60.70 IIR - BOTH SEXES 93.0 85.1 74.9 64.1 53.6 43.1 32.5 22.0 11.4 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .1194 .1081 .0934 .0779 .0652 .0525 .0397 .0269 .0141 DEP. RATIO 87.7 90.2 93.2 93.6 87.6 83.1 81.3 80.6 78.7 75.6 COUNThRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrITRIES 117 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods IRAN, ISLAJ IIC PRE. OF AGE GROUP 1'5 2000 2^25 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 46374 78264 16L680 289043 392294 459794 484205 490337 MALES 0-4 4057 6791 12631 15206 14949 14728 14683 14685 5-9 3379 6015 11394 15193 14785 14628 14654 14678 10-14 2978 5198 10036 14906 14374 14580 14670 14691 15-19 2554 3913 8652 14477 14301 14658 14711 14694 20-24 2177 3321 7460 13599 14848 14805 14713 14662 25-29 1835 2929 6578 12462 15071 14842 14636 14598 30-34 1565 2515 5866 11205 15014 14642 14506 14540 35-39 1216 2145 5056 9822 14671 14187 14417 14517 40-44 916 1799 3786 8416 14175 14056 14442 14510 45-49 738 1518 3182 7198 13230 1451S 14522 14452 50-54 620 1155 2751 6248 11983 14598 14438 14268 55-59 505 838 2281 5422 10557 14307 14046 13959 60-64 399 637 1836 4473 8966 13632 13319 13600 65-69 297 487 1404 3123 7311 12661 12755 13200 70-74 199 343 1018 2342 5770 11082 12469 12612 75+ 199 366 1003 3017 8490 18638 27441 28750 TOTAL 23635 39969 84933 147108 198498 230561 240422 242416 FEMALES 0-4 3839 6570 11998 14452 14233 14035 13995 13998 5-9 3145 5844 10867 14419 14074 13939 13970 13995 10-14 2806 5061 9617 14128 13679 13891 13986 14007 15-19 2459 3714 8336 13711 13610 13967 14031 14016 20-24 2114 3086 7233 12888 14148 14124 14052 14003 25-29 1777 2745 6400 11892 14378 14186 14005 13971 30-34 1516 2398 5715 10765 14334 14020 13906 13944 35-39 1176 2052 4920 9498 14015 13606 13843 13948 40-44 886 1713 3578 8194 13561 135t1 13896 13977 45-49 719 1442 2938 7058 12689 14003 14025 13975 50-54 612 1097 2565 6170 11618 14159 14039 13892 55-59 508 801 2177 5406 10392 14007 13802 13738 60-64 409 617 1778 4515 9002 13541 13295 13597 65-69 310 479 1370 3127 7545 12877 13055 13534 70-74 218 338 1000 2358 6183 11702 13281 13463 75+ 241 336 956 3356 10337 23662 36601 39865 TOTAL 22739 38294 81447 ;41936 193796 216934 243783 247921 BIRTH RATE 43.0 35.2 25.5 16.8 13.4 12.1 11.8 DEATH RATE 8.5 5.2 3.9 4.7 7.1 10.1 11.3 NET MIGRATION RATE .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.49 3.02 2.21 1.22 .64 .21 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.067 4.800 3.255 2.150 2.065 2.060 2.059 C0) - BOTH SEXES 63.80 70.39 76.65 80.55 82.84 84.59 85.29 INR - BOTH SEXES 83.7 40.7 8.6 4.1 3.0 2.3 2.1 118 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES MAQ ProJection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 15898 18914 22410 26373 30660 35153 39699 44159 48368 52186 MALES 0-4 1512 1743 20c' 2279 2474 2616 2684 2686 2608 2465 5-9 1284 1485 1716 2041 2256 2453 2598 2670 2676 2602 10-14 1026 1278 1477 1710 2035 2250 2447 2592 2666 2672 15-19 844 1020 1267 1471 1704 2028 2243 2440 2585 2658 20-24 697 837 1002 1259 1463 1695 2018 2232 2428 2573 25-29 577 690 817 995 1251 1454 1684 2006 2219 2414 30-34 478 570 673 810 987 1242 1444 1674 1994 2206 35-39 394 471 554 665 802 978 1231 1433 1661 1980 40-44 324 387 455 546 656 791 966 1217 1418 1645 45-49 262 315 370 445 534 642 776 949 1197 1396 50-54 211 252 297 357 430 517 623 754 923 1167 55-59 166 199 232 281 338 408 492 594 722 886 60-64 125 152 176 213 258 312 378 457 555 676 65-69 90 109 127 154 187 228 277 337 410 500 70-74 58 72 82 102 126 153 189 231 283 346 75+ 49 62 70 89 114 145 183 231 292 370 TOTAL 8096 9642 11384 13418 15614 17912 20233 22502 24635 26556 FEMALES 0-4 1440 1657 1965 2164 2346 2478 2540 2538 2462 2324 5-9 1220 1417 1634 1942 2144 2329 2463 2528 2530 2457 10-14 980 1215 1412 1629 1938 2140 2324 2459 2525 2527 15-19 809 075 1209 1406 1823 1932 2134 2319 2455 2521 20-24 666 802 967 1201 1398 1616 1924 2127 2313 2449 25-29 551 658 793 958 1192 1389 1607 1915 2119 2307 30-34 457 544 650 784 949 1183 1380 1598 1907 2113 35-39 379 450 536 642 776 941 1174 1371 1589 1899 40-44 311 372 443 528 633 767 931 1163 1360 1579 45-49 256 304 364 434 519 623 756 919 1149 1346 50-54 208 248 296 355 424 507 610 741 902 1131 55-59 167 199 238 284 342 410 491 593 722 880 60-64 131 156 187 225 269 325 390 469 568 694 65-69 97 117 140 169 204 246 299 361 438 533 70-74 67 80 97 118 143 175 213 262 320 391 75+ 61 77 95 117 144 182 230 293 375 479 TOTAL 7802 9272 11026 12955 15046 17241 19466 21657 23733 25630 BIRTH RATE 42.4 42.1 38.9 35.7 32.4 29.0 25.6 22.4 19.3 DEATH RATE 7.7 8.2 6.3 5.6 5.1 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.47 3.39 3.26 3.01 2.74 2.43 2.13 1.82 1.52 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 3.47 3.39 3.26 3.01 2.73 2.43 2.13 1.82 1.52 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.350 6.050 5.450 4.850 4.250 3.650 3.102 2.636 2.241 NRR 2.704 2.615 2.396 2.172 1.927 1.675 1.441 1.239 1.065 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 63.87 62.40 66.51 68.1C 69.42 70.78 72.20 73.66 75.18 e15) - BOTH SEXES 55.70 53.42 56.91 57.64 58.30 59.00 59.73 60.49 61.29 IMR - BOTH SEXES 69.0 63.1 54.9 46.2 38.9 31.6 24.4 17.1 9.8 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0904 .0818 .0702 .0582 .0491 .0399 .0307 .0215 .0122 DEP. RATIO 98.4 97.0 94.4 90.3 85.3 77.9 70.7 63.7 57.1 51.2 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 119 Sutmry Projection for 25-Year Periods IRAQ AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 15898 26373 48368 66776 78923 82966 84474 85163 MALES 0-4 '512 2279 2608 2601 2579 2563 2559 2558 5-9 1284 2041 2676 2621 2567 2554 2555 2557 10-14 1026 1710 2666 2580 2543 2549 2555 2557 15-19 844 1' '1 2585 2470 2527 2552 2557 2557 20-24 697 1259 2428 2444 2541 2560 2555 2552 25-29 577 995 2219 2572 2578 2560 2547 2544 30-34 478 810 1994 2630 2589 2542 2533 2535 35-39 394 665 1661 2607 2539 2509 2520 2529 40-44 324 546 1418 2513 2417 2483 2514 2522 45-49 262 445 1197 2341 2377 2484 2511 2510 50-54 211 357 923 2106 2471 2496 2490 2482 55-59 166 281 722 1840 2475 2466 2438 2437 60-64 125 213 555 1466 2376 2357 2354 2376 65-69 90 154 410 1163 2177 2156 2251 2297 70-74 58 102 283 873 1867 1986 2131 2178 75+ 49 89 292 996 2971 4477 4847 5001 TOTAL 8096 13418 24635 33823 39594 41293 41917 42191 FEMALES 0-4 1440 2164 2462 2454 2434 2420 2416 2416 5-9 1220 1942 2530 2473 2423 2412 2413 2415 10-14 980 1629 2525 2434 2400 2407 2414 2415 15-19 809 1406 2455 2331 2386 2411 2417 2416 20-24 666 1201 2313 2312 2403 2422 2418 2415 25-29 551 958 2119 2444 2444 2427 2415 2412 30-34 457 784 1907 2509 2460 2415 2407 2409 35-39 379 642 1589 2497 2417 2389 2399 2408 40-44 311 528 1360 2418 2309 2370 2400 2408 45-49 256 434 1149 2265 2281 2381 2406 2406 50-54 208 355 902 2054 2394 2410 2404 2397 55-59 167 284 722 1818 2433 2410 2381 2380 60-64 131 225 568 1477 2384 2344 2339 2360 65-69 97 169 438 1213 2252 2206 2297 2341 70-74 67 118 320 955 2022 2124 2269 2316 75+ 61 117 375 1300 3886 6124 6761 7059 TOTAL 7802 12955 23733 32953 39328 41673 42557 42972 BIRTH RATE 40.9 28.2 17.3 13.6 12.3 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.3 4.7 4.6 7.0 10.3 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .O .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.37 2.43 1.29 .67 .20 .07 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.896 3.524 2.120 2.079 2.073 2.069 2.068 t0() - BOTH SEXES 64.41 71.16 77.18 80.96 83.10 84.73 85.37 IMR - BOTH SEXES 61.8 31.6 7.5 3.7 2.9 2.3 2.1 120 CouNTRiES, ECONOMIES, AND TeRRrroRIES ERELAND psjetto (thousands) wIth NARWi by 1990 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 3540 3503 3498 3528 3561 3633 3722 3824 3923 4020 MALES 0-4 170 144 138 143 142 138 133 131 132 134 5-9 181 162 138 133 138 140 137 133 130 132 10-14 180 174 157 134 129 136 139 137 133 130 15-19 170 173 169 153 130 127 135 139 137 132 20-24 144 158 164 162 146 127 126 134 138 136 25-29 129 129 147 15S 153 141 124 125 134 138 30-34 122 116 119 139 147 149 139 124 124 133 35-39 114 112 108 113 133 143 147 138 123 124 40-44 96 106 106 103 108 130 141 145 137 122 45-49 82 90 101 102 99 106 128 139 144 136 50-54 76 78 86 97 98 97 103 125 137 141 55-59 72 71 73 82 93 94 93 100 121 133 60-64 68 65 65 68 77 87 89 89 96 117 65-69 62 59 57 58 61 70 80 83 83 90 70-74 51 51 49 48 49 53 61 71 74 75 75+ 56 65 70 72 74 77 84 96 114 130 TOTAL 1771 1752 1748 1762 1778 1814 1859 1909 1957 2005 FEMALES 0-4 162 136 130 135 134 131 125 123 124 127 5-9 172 153 130 125 130 132 129 125 123 124 10-14 171 165 149 126 122 128 131 129 125 123 15-19 162 163 160 144 122 120 127 131 129 125 20-24 142 148 153 152 136 118 118 127 131 129 25-29 129 126 136 143 142 131 116 1l8 127 131 30-34 120 116 116 129 136 138 129 115 117 126 35-39 110 1tt 109 III 123 133 137 129 115 117 40-44 92 105 107 106 108 121 132 136 129 115 45-49 78 88 102 104 104 106 120 131 136 128 50-54 73 76 86 100 103 102 105 119 130 134 55-59 73 71 74 84 97 101 100 103 117 128 60-64 73 70 68 71 81 95 98 98 101 116 65-69 69 68 65 64 68 78 91 95 95 99 70-74 59 61 61 59 59 63 73 86 90 91 75+ 86 95 104 113 119 124 132 149 175 201 TOTAL 1769 1751 1750 1766 1783 1819 1864 1915 1966 2015 BIRTH RATE 16.6 15.8 16.2 16.0 15.2 14.2 13.5 13.3 13.2 DEATH RATE 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.3 RATE OF MAT. INC. .76 .69 .74 .75 .68 .60 .54 .51 .49 NET MIGRATION RATE -9.7 -7.1 -5.7 -5.6 -2.8 -1.1 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE -.21 -.03 .17 .19 .40 .49 .54 .51 .49 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.337 2.092 2.088 2.085 2.084 2.082 2.080 2.078 2.077 NRR 1.113 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(0) - BOTH SEXES 73.79 74.74 75.81 76.87 77.65 78.47 79.32 80.22 81.16 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 59.70 60.54 61.51 62.50 63.24 64.02 64.84 65.70 66.60 IMR - BOTH SEXES 7.9 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.6 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0100 .0086 .0076 .0068 .0065 .0061 .0057 .0054 .0050 DEP. RATIO 66.8 61.4 55.5 52.2 52.4 53.6 54.6 55.0 55.4 56.8 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 121 SurV ProJectiorn for 25-Year Perfods IRELAND AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL MF 3540 3528 3923 4277 4359 4414 4450 4468 HALES 0-4 170 143 132 133 133 133 133 133 5-9 181 133 130 133 133 133 133 133 10-14 180 134 133 134 134 133 133 133 15-19 170 153 137 135 133 133 133 133 20-24 144 162 138 133 132 133 133 133 25-29 129 155 134 131 132 132 133 133 30-34 122 139 124 129 132 132 132 132 35-39 114 113 123 131 132 132 132 132 40-44 96 103 137 134 133 131 131 131 45-49 82 102 14 135 130 130 130 131 50-54 76 97 137 129 126 128 129 129 55-59 72 82 121 118 123 126 127 128 60-66 68 68 96 113 121 124 125 125 0-69 62 58 83 120 120 120 120 121 70-74 51 48 74 117 113 112 113 114 75+ 56 72 114 206 232 248 261 268 TOTAL 1771 1762 1957 2129 2161 2184 2200 2209 FEMALES 0-4 162 135 124 125 126 126 126 126 5-9 172 125 123 126 126 126 126 126 10-14 171 126 125 127 126 126 126 126 15-19 162 144 129 127 126 126 126 126 20-24 142 152 131 126 125 126 126 126 25-29 129 143 127 124 125 126 126 126 30-34 120 129 117 123 125 126 126 126 35-39 110 111 115 125 126 126 126 126 40-44 92 106 129 128 127 126 125 125 45-49 78 104 136 129 125 125 125 125 50-54 73 100 130 125 123 124 125 125 55-59 73 84 117 115 121 124 125 125 6-64 73 71 101 111 121 124 124 124 65-69 69 64 95 122 124 123 123 123 70-74 59 59 90 125 122 120 121 121 75+ 86 113 175 291 330 359 376 384 TOTAL 1769 1766 1966 2148 2198 2230 2250 2259 BIRTH RATE 16.2 14.4 12.7 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 8.9 8.3 9.2 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET NIGRATION RATE -7.5 -1.d .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE -.02 .42 .35 .0O .05 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.171 2.082 2.075 2.071 2.069 2.068 2.067 etO) - BOTH SEXES 74.78 78.54 82.09 83.91 84.91 85.65 85.95 IHR - BOTH SEXES 6.8 4.5 3.2 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 122 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES,; AND TERRrITRIES ISRAEL Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2005 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 4233 4659 5923 6425 6831 7211 7595 7978 8343 8671 MALES 0-4 248 255 311 313 291 285 294 301 304 300 5-9 239 250 295 313 312 290 285 293 301 30. 10-14 224 241 280 297 312 312 290 284 293 301 15-19 194 226 271 281 296 312 312 289 284 293 20-24 177 198 282 273 280 295 311 311 289 283 25-29 163 182 273 286 272 279 294 310 310 288 30-34 161 168 247 275 284 271 278 293 309 308 35-39 139 165 217 249 274 283 270 276 291 307 40-44 92 141 198 217 247 272 281 268 275 290 45-49 86 93 160 197 215 245 269 278 265 272 50-54 79 85 101 157 193 211 241 265 274 261 55-59 72 77 87 98 153 188 205 234 259 268 60-64 71 68 75 83 93 146 180 198 226 250 65-69 52 65 64 69 77 87 137 170 187 215 70-74 54 45 57 56 61 69 79 125 156 173 75+ 66 78 79 88 96 105 119 136 188 252 TOTAL 2118 2336 2996 3253 3458 3651 3843 4032 4209 4365 FEMALES 0-4 232 244 299 299 277 272 280 287 289 285 5-9 225 235 285 300 299 277 272 280 287 289 10-14 211 227 264 286 300 298 277 271 280 287 15-19 181 213 260 266 286 300 298 277 271 279 20-24 164 186 275 263 266 286 300 298 276 271 25-29 161 170 258 278 263 265 285 299 297 276 30-34 162 165 225 260 277 262 265 285 299 297 35-39 142 165 202 226 259 277 261 264 284 298 40-44 95 143 185 202 225 258 276 260 263 283 45-49 90 94 153 184 201 224 257 274 259 262 50-54 86 89 98 151 182 199 222 254 272 257 55-59 84 84 89 96 149 179 196 219 251 269 60-64 83 81 82 86 94 145 175 192 215 247 65-69 60 78 77 78 83 90 143 170 187 210 70-74 64 54 71 71 73 77 85 133 162 180 75+ 76 96 104 122 139 151 165 183 241 316 TOTAL 2115 2323 2928 3172 3372 3561 3752 3945 4133 4306 BIRTH RATE 22.6 21.6 19.9 17.3 16.0 15.6 15.2 14.6 13.8 DEATH RATE 6.5 5.9 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.60 1.57 1.46 1.23 1.08 1.04 .98 .89 .77 NET MIGRATION RATE 3.1 32.3 1.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.92 4.80 1.62 1.23 1.08 1.04 .98 .89 .77 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.010 2.699 2.419 2.169 2.076 2.073 2.071 2.068 2.065 NRR 1.439 1.293 1.162 1.043 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 75.56 76.59 77.59 78.62 79.28 79.97 80.67 81.39 82.14 ecl5) - BOTH SEXES 61.84 62.67 63.52 64.45 65.02 65.62 66.24 66.88 67.54 INR - BOTH SEXES 11.4 9.4 7.9 6.8 6.0 5.3 4.6 3.9 3.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0140 .0118 .0101 .0087 .0079 .0070 .0062 .0053 .0045 DEP. RATIO 70.5 66.9 58.5 55.5 51.4 47.3 46.8 49.3 52.6 55.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 123 Sufmary Projectfon for 25-Year Perfods ISRAEL AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 4233 6425 8343 9479 9817 9922 9983 10015 MALES 0-4 248 313 304 299 297 297 297 297 5-9 239 313 301 296 296 297 297 297 10-14 224 297 293 294 296 297 297 297 15-19 194 281 284 295 297 297 297 297 20-24 177 273 289 298 298 297 296 296 25-29 163 286 310 301 297 295 295 296 30-34 161 275 309 298 294 294 295 295 35-39 139 249 291 289 291 293 294 294 40-44 92 217 275 279 290 293 293 293 45-49 86 197 265 282 292 293 292 291 50-54 79 157 274 299 293 289 288 288 55-59 72 98 259 293 285 282 283 284 60-64 71 83 226 270 271 274 277 279 65-69 52 69 187 244 252 265 269 270 70-74 54 56 156 221 241 253 256 256 75+ 66 88 188 458 563 579 592 601 TOTAL 2118 3253 4209 4719 4853 4895 4919 4932 FEMALES 0-4 232 299 289 285 283 283 283 283 5-9 225 300 287 282 282 283 283 283 10-14 211 286 280 280 282 283 283 283 15-19 181 266 271 281 284 284 283 283 20-24 164 263 276 285 285 284 283 283 25-29 161 278 297 288 284 283 283 283 30-34 162 260 299 286 282 282 283 283 35-39 142 226 284 278 279 282 283 283 40-44 95 202 263 269 280 282 283 283 45-49 90 184 259 273 283 283 282 282 50-54 86 151 272 293 285 282 281 281 55-59 84 96 251 292 282 278 279 280 60-64 83 86 215 275 272 274 278 279 65-69 60 78 187 250 260 272 277 277 70-74 64 71 162 240 259 272 274 274 75+ 76 122 241 602 782 820 847 862 TOTAL 2115 3172 4133 4760 4963 5027 5064 5083 BIRTH RATE 21.2 15.7 12.9 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 5.8 5.3 7.9 10.6 11.4 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 12.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.78 1.05 .51 .14 .04 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.669 2.090 2.064 2.060 2.059 2.057 2.057 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 76.69 80.06 82.91 84.38 85.20 85.81 86.05 INR - BOTH SEXES 9.5 5.3 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 124 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES iTALY Projection (thousands) with NRRt1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1°99 2000 200S 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL AFf 57141 57663 57943 57985 57920 57600 56960 56199 55436 54710 MALES 0-4 1554 1445 1475 1423 1434 1385 1341 1334 1362 1403 5-9 1853 1562 1444 1474 1421 1432 1383 1339 1333 1361 10-14 2248 1860 1562 1444 1473 1420 1431 1382 1339 1333 15-19 2398 2251 1858 1560 1442 1471 1418 1430 1381 1338 20-24 2372 2403 2246 1853 lSSS 1437 1466 1414 1426 1378 25-29 2071 2379 2396 2238 1845 1S49 1431 1461 1409 1421 30-34 1902 2077 2371 2387 2228 1837 1543 1426 1455 1404 35-39 1995 1904 2069 2360 2375 2218 1829 1536 1420 1450 40-44 1725 1986 1891 2055 2344 2360 2204 1818 1527 1412 45-49 1825 1706 1963 1870 2033 2321 2337 2184 1803 1515 50-54 1723 1786 1671 1926 1836 1998 2283 2301 2152 lm 55-59 1653 1661 1728 1622 1873 1788 1948 2228 2249 2106 60-64 1480 1560 1578 1650 1555 1800 1723 1881 2156 2180 65-69 877 1349 1437 1466 1546 1462 1698 1631 1787 2055 70-74 981 754 1180 1276 1320 1399 1331 1555 1502 1655 7.+ 1108 1385 1394 1741 2089 2367 2591 2679 2929 3078 TOTAL 27766 28068 28263 28345 28369 28244 27957 27599 27229 26866 FEMALES 0-4 1473 1366 1395 1345 1355 1308 1266 1260 1286 1324 5-9 1758 1482 1367 1394 1343 1354 1307 1265 1259 1285 10-14 2140 1765 1483 1367 1394 1343 1353 1307 1265 1259 15-19 2309 2148 1766 1483 1366 1393 1342 1353 1306 1264 20-24 2304 2324 2149 1766 1481 1365 1391 1341 1351 1305 25-29 2041 2321 2325 2148 1763 1479 1363 1389 1339 1350 30-34 1906 2053 2320 2322 2144 1760 1476 1360 1387 1337 35-39 2008 1911 2049 2315 2316 2139 1756 1473 1358 1385 40-44 1758 2004 1903 2041 2306 2308 2132 1751 1469 1354 45-49 1891 1747 1990 1891 2029 2293 2296 2122 1743 1463 50-54 1821 1869 1728 1970 1873 2011 2274 2279 2107 1732 55-59 1804 1787 1836 1700 1942 1848 1986 2248 2255 2087 60-64 1756 1751 1740 1792 1664 1904 1815 1954 2215 2226 65-69 lio 1674 1677 1674 1733 1614 1851 1770 1911 2173 70-74 1334 1021 1553 1570 1S81 1644 1539 1774 1705 1849 75+ 1961 2370 2397 2860 3260 3595 3855 3955 4252 4451 TOTAL 29375 29595 29680 29640 29551 29356 29003 28600 28207 27844 BIRTH RATE 9.9 10.0 9.6 9.7 9.4 9.2 9.2 9.5 9.9 DEATH RATE 8.9 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.5 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. .10 .08 .00 -.02 -.11 -.22 -.27 -.27 -.26 NET MIGRATION RATE .8 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .18 .10 .01 -.02 -.11 -.22 -.27 -.27 -.26 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.320 1.320 1.320 1.461 1.593 1.715 1.829 1.936 2.035 NRR .629 .631 .632 .701 .765 .825 .880 .933 .981 eCo) - BOTH SEXES 76.83 77.90 78.92 79.88 80.44 81.03 81.63 82.24 82.87 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 62.94 63.83 64.73 65.58 66.09 66.60 67.13 67.68 68.24 INR - BOTH SEXES 9.8 7.9 6.6 5.7 5.2 4.6 4.0 3.4 2.9 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0123 .0101 .0085 .0075 .0068 .0062 .0055 .0048 .0041 DEP. RATIO 47.5 45.5 46.4 48.9 52.5 54.5 58.2 60.8 65.4 73.8 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 125 Summary Projectfon for 25-Year Perfods ITALY AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N4F 57141 57g85 55436 50389 45918 45731 45985 46114 MALES 0-4 1554 1423 1362 1363 1370 1373 1374 1374 5-9 1853 1474 1333 1358 1372 1374 1374 1373 10-14 2248 1444 1339 1373 1379 1375 1373 1372 15-19 2398 1560 1381 1398 1380 1373 1371 1372 20-24 2372 1853 1426 1398 1370 1367 1368 1370 25-29 2071 2238 1409 1352 1354 1362 1366 1367 30-34 1902 2387 1455 1320 1347 1361 1364 1364 35-39 1995 2360 1420 1321 1357 1364 1362 1360 40-44 1725 2055 1527 1358 1377 1361 1355 1354 45-49 1825 1870 1803 1395 1370 1346 1344 1346 50-54 1723 1926 2152 1365 1315 1320 1329 1334 55-59 1653 1622 2249 1387 1266 1296 1313 1317 60-64 1480 1650 2156 1320 1239 1280 1291 1290 65-69 877 1466 1787 1366 1230 1258 1250 1247 70-74 981 1276 1502 1514 1195 1189 1177 1179 75+ 1108 1741 2929 4067 2763 2643 2739 2790 TOTAL 27766 28345 27229 24654 22684 22642 22749 22807 FEMALES 0-4 1473 1345 1286 1287 1293 1297 1298 1297 5-9 1758 1394 1259 1283 1296 1298 1297 1297 10-14 2140 1367 1265 1296 1302 1299 1297 1296 15-19 2309 1483 1306 1321 1304 1297 1296 1296 20-24 2304 1766 1351 1322 1297 1293 1295 1296 25-29 2041 2148 1339 1283 1284 1291 1295 1296 30-34 1906 2322 1387 1255 1280 12S4 1296 1296 35-39 2008 2315 1358 1259 1292 129% 1296 1295 40-44 1758 2041 1469 1298 1315 1300 1293 1292 45-49 1891 1891 1743 1340 1314 1290 1288 1290 50-54 1821 1970 2107 1322 1270 1275 1283 1288 55-59 1804 1700 2255 1360 1237 1266 1282 1285 60-64 1756 1792 2215 1319 1233 1271 1282 1281 65-69 1110 1674 1911 1407 1258 1284 1274 1270 70-74 1334 1570 1705 1631 1277 1266 1251 1252 75. 1961 2860 4252 5752 3980 3769 3912 3980 TOTAL 29375 29640 28207 25735 23234 23089 23236 23308 BIRTH RATE 9.8 9.4 10.1 11.3 11.7 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 9.2 11.2 13.9 15.0 11.9 11.4 11.5 NET NIGRATION RATE .4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .10 -.18 -.38 -.37 -.02 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.316 1.687 2.064 2.069 2.068 2.067 2.067 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 77.89 81.03 83.48 84.71 85.41 85.91 86.11 INR - BOTH SEXES 8.1 4.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 126 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES JORDAN-EAST BANK ProJectfon (thousands) Wfth NRRal by 2025 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 2642 3098 3942 4615 5288 5926 6548 7153 7718 8270 4ALES 0-4 232 264 342 379 382 371 370 370 358 362 5-9 210 229 273 339 376 380 369 369 369 358 10-14 189 209 237 272 338 375 379 368 368 368 15-19 163 188 218 237 272 337 375 378 368 368 20-24 138 162 203 217 235 270 336 373 377 366 25-29 98 137 181 202 215 234 269 334 371 375 30-34 68 96 154 180 201 214 233 267 332 369 35-39 60 67 109 152 179 199 213 231 266 331 40-44 52 59 75 107 151 177 197 211 229 264 45-49 45 SO 63 74 106 148 174 195 208 227 50-54 35 43 51 61 72 103 145 170 190 204 55-59 28 33 42 49 58 69 99 139 164 184 60-64 18 26 31 39 45 54 64 93 132 156 65-69 14 16 23 27 35 41 49 59 85 121 70-74 9 11 13 19 23 29 35 42 51 75 75. 14 12 13 16 21 28 36 46 57 71 TOTAL 1373 1603 2028 2369 2708 3030 3343 3645 3926 4198 FEMALES 0-4 225 253 328 362 365 354 353 353 342 345 5-9 198 223 263 325 360 364 353 352 352 341 10-14 176 197 231 262 325 360 363 353 352 352 15-19 149 175 207 231 262 324 359 363 352 352 20-24 117 148 194 206 230 261 323 359 362 352 25-29 86 116 170 193 206 229 260 323 358 361 30-34 60 85 133 169 192 205 229 259 322 357 35-39 52 59 96 132 168 191 204 228 258 321 40-44 48 51 65 95 131 167 190 202 226 257 45-49 45 47 54 64 94 129 165 188 201 224 50-54 35 44 48 53 63 93 127 163 185 198 55-59 25 34 43 46 51 62 90 124 159 182 60-64 19 24 32 41 44 49 59 87 120 155 65-69 14 17 22 30 38 41 46 56 83 115 70-74 8 12 15 19 26 34 37 42 51 76 75+ 14 12 15 19 25 34 46 57 68 85 TOTAL 1269 1496 1914 2247 2580 2896 3205 3507 3792 4072 BIRTH RATE 38.5 39.4 36.2 31.3 26.6 23.8 21.5 19.1 17.8 DEATH RATE 6.7 5.6 4.7 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.18 3.38 3.15 2.72 2.28 2.00 1.77 1.52 1.38 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 14.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.19 4.82 3.15 2.72 2.28 2.00 1.77 1.52 1.38 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.820 5.215 4.610 4.005 3.400 2.942 2.546 2.203 2.079 NRR 2.564 2.351 2.112 1.860 1.591 1.386 1.208 1.052 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 65.94 68.12 70.12 71.97 73.08 74.23 75.41 76.65 77.93 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 56.54 57.75 58.93 60.10 60.74 61.41 62.11 62.85 63.62 IMR - BOTH SEXES 56.9 47.0 38.5 31.2 26.1 21.0 15.9 10.8 5.7 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0730 .0593 .0479 .0385 .0324 .0262 .0200 .0137 .0075 DEP. RATIO 97.3 88.6 81.8 81.2 77.8 68.5 59.3 52.6 48.9 47.6 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRlTORIES 127 Suiery Projection for 25-Year Perfods JORDAN-EAST BANK AGE GRWP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 2642 4615 7718 10192 11608 11998 12182 12268 MALES 0-4 232 379 358 365 367 366 366 366 5-9 210 339 369 368 367 366 366 366 10-14 189 272 368 371 367 366 366 366 15-19 163 237 368 369 365 365 365 366 20-24 138 217 377 360 363 364 365 365 25-29 98 202 371 354 362 364 364 364 30-34 68 180 332 364 364 364 363 363 35-39 60 152 266 361 365 363 362 362 40-44 52 107 229 359 362 359 360 360 45-49 45 74 208 365 351 355 358 359 50-54 35 61 190 355 342 351 355 355 55-59 28 49 164 310 344 343 350 350 60-64 18 39 132 239 333 341 341 342 65-69 14 27 85 195 316 326 327 330 70-74 9 19 51 161 299 297 307 312 75+ 14 16 57 230 513 643 698 723 TOTAL 1373 2369 3926 5126 5780 5939 6012 6047 FEMALES 0-4 225 362 342 348 349 349 349 349 5-9 198 325 352 350 350 349 349 349 10-14 176 262 352 353 350 349 349 349 15-19 149 231 352 352 348 348 349 349 20-24 117 206 362 343 346 348 349 349 25-29 86 193 358 340 347 349 349 349 30-34 60 169 322 350 349 349 348 348 35-39 52 132 258 349 351 348 348 348 40-44 48 95 226 348 349 346 347 347 45-49 45 64 201 356 340 344 346 347 50-54 35 53 185 349 334 343 346 346 55-59 25 46 159 310 341 343 345 345 60-64 19 41 120 244 336 342 342 343 65-69 14 30 83 208 329 336 337 339 70-74 8 19 51 175 327 320 330 334 75+ 14 19 68 291 682 895 988 1031 TOTAL 1269 2247 3792 5066 5828 6060 6169 6221 BIRTH RATE 37.9 23.9 16.0 13.1 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.5 3.9 5.0 7.9 10.8 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE 4.7 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.72 2.06 1.11 .52 .13 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.096 2.907 2.074 2.065 2.061 2.058 2.058 e(o) - BOTH SEXES 68.34 74.50 79.45 82.31 83.94 85.17 85.65 IIR - BTH SEXES 46.5 21.2 4.8 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.0 128 COUNTRIDM$ ECONObldMh AND MRfRI7DRMDS KAZA_ S N Projectfon (thouands) Wfth NRRuI by 2000 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 200S 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N4F IS52 167h 17475 1332 19209 20154 21118 22004 22796 23518 MALES 0-4 949 975 03 759 782 848 877 860 827 812 5-9 829 924 956 830 756 779 845 874 857 825 10-14 781 811 910 953 827 754 778 843 873 856 1S-19 T18 761 79 904 948 824 751 m 841 870 20-24 656 682 72 785 a 940 817 746 770 837 25-29 74S5 610 64 721 m ass 930 810 741 766 30-34 656 700 57 636 711 766 876 922 804 736 35-39 536 615 469 566 625 700 756 866 914 799 4044 329 s0 59 652 554 613 689 745 856 905 45-49 344 306 478 569 632 538 59" 674 732 843 50-54 385 320 2J 454 543 606 518 578 654 713 55-59 260 352 294 266 424 S09 572 492 552 628 60-64 226 229 312 262 239 384 466 527 457 516 65-69 96 188 191 263 223 205 334 410 469 411 70-74 69 74 143 148 205 177 166 274 341 396 75+ 96 86 S5 133 164 219 234 234 319 430 TOTAL 7677 8139 846 8 9303 9749 10207 10631 11005 11343 FEMALES 0-4 921 937 8 729 750 813 841 825 793 779 S-9 809 a"9 920 78 727 748 812 840 824 793 10-14 766 73 86 919 797 726 748 811 839 823 15-19 673 747 s 884 917 796 725 747 810 839 20-24 641 639 721 m 88 916 7f5 724 746 809 25-29 743 600 609 m m S81 914 794 723 745 30-34 658 700 576 607 718 7m3 879 912 792 722 35-39 552 633 690 74 604 715 770 876 910 790 40-44 343 53 619 685 570 601 711 767 872 906 45-49 379 332 524 613 679 565 597 707 762 868 50-54 421 367 323 S1S 604 670 559 590 699 755 55-59 305 404 355 315 504 592 A 549 581 690 60-64 34 286 384 341 305 489 576 642 537 570 65-69 197 312 26 359 323 290 467 SS3 619 521 70-74 157 166 2 235 327 296 26B8 436 520 588 75+ 265 250 258 364 424 533 592 602 762 979 TOTAL 8175 80 W8 943 9906 10405 10911 11373 11791 12175 BIRTH RATE 24.5 19.8 17.0 16.6 17.2 16.9 15.8 14.6 13.9 DEATH RATE 8.5 7.8 7.4 7.3 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.6 RATE OF MAT. INC. 1.60 1.20 .96 .94 .96 .94 .82 .71 .62 MET NIGRATION RATE -5.0 -3.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GRONTH RATE 1.10 .85 .96 .94 .96 .94 .82 .71 .62 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.040 2.05 2.233 2.099 2.093 2.07 2.081 2.075 2.068 NRR 1.422 1.2m 1.059 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - OTH SEXS 67.38 69.05 70.72 72.36 73.40 74.48 75.61 76.80 78.04 e(15) - 0TN sExES 55.00 56.3 57.67 59.02 59.90 60.82 61.78 62.80 63.86 iR - BOTH SEXES 2.2 Z3.1 19.2 15.7 14.0 12.2 10.4 8.6 6.8 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0326 .027 .0230 .0191 .0170 .0150 .0129 .0109 .0088 DEP. RATIO 59.9 62.1 59.5 54.8 48.9 46.4 49.2 52.4 54.5 53.6 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES 129 Suuary Projectfon for 25-Year Perioft KAZAKHSTAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N4F 15852 18332 22796 25753 26953 27569 27941 28116 MALES 0-4 949 759 827 842 841 8M 838 838 5-9 829 830 857 647 a39 836 836 83 10-14 781 953 673 839 634 835 86 837 15-19 718 904 841 819 829 835 837 837 20-24 656 785 770 05 29 835 836 835 25-29 745 721 741 S15 835 835 833 833 30-34 656 636 804 642 837 U30 829 830 35-39 536 566 914 853 625 822 825 828 40-44 329 652 856 817 801 814 822 825 45-49 344 569 732 743 7 811 819 821 50-54 385 454 654 70 783 808 812 812 55-59 260 266 552 742 793 797 796 798 60-64 226 262 457 806 m 766 771 778 65-69 98 263 469 702 707 714 7m 751 70-74 69 148 341 533 591 653 695 711 75. 96 133 319 753 1195 1436 1570 1632 TOTAL 7677 8899 11005 12459 1308 13466 13694 13800 FEMALES 0-4 921 7n 793 805 803 800 799 799 5-9 809 796 824 811 801 799 799 799 10-14 766 919 839 U0 797 797 799 799 15-19 673 884 81O 787 793 798 799 799 20-24 641 777 746 77 795 800 800 799 25-29 743 720 723 790 803 801 799 798 30-34 658 607 792 820 809 800 797 797 35-39 552 574 910 834 801 794 795 797 4-44 343 685 872 803 78 789 795 797 45-49 379 613 762 737 770 790 796 796 50-54 421 515 699 710 780 796 796 794 55-59 305 315 581 770 804 797 791 790 60-64 344 341 537 873 811 7B5 782 785 65-69 i 7 359 619 820 770 759 771 779 70-74 157 235 520 692 690 735 762 m 75+ 265 364 762 1458 2045 2263 2367 2416 TOTAL 8175 9433 11791 13294 13855 14103 14247 14316 BIRTH RATE 20.3 16.2 13.5 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.9 7.5 8.6 10.6 11.1 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -2.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .97 .87 .49 .18 .09 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.610 2.087 2.066 2.061 2.058 2.057 2.056 o(0) - BOTH SEXES 69.10 74.63 79.56 82.49 84.06 85.23 85.69 IMR - BOTH SEXES 23.5 12.1 5.4 ;3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 130 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES KUWAIT Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2010 AGE GRCUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 1712 2143 2235 2520 2782 3007 3190 3357 3501 3621 MALES 0-4 126 139 113 110 119 123 126 126 123 121 5-9 107 134 135 117 113 120 123 126 126 123 10-14 88 112 131 137 119 114 120 123 126 126 15-19 72 94 109 134 139 120 114 120 123 126 20-24 77 90 92 119 140 142 119 113 120 123 25-29 115 102 87 106 128 144 141 119 113 119 30-34 111 137 100 100 114 132 144 141 118 112 35-39 89 127 134 109 106 117 131 143 '140 118 40-44 65 99 124 139 112 107 116 130 142 139 45-49 49 69 97 126 140 112 106 115 129 141 50-54 32 50 67 96 124 133 110 104 113 127 55-59 18 32 48 65 93 121 133 107 101 110 60-64 9 17 29 45 62 89 115 128 103 97 65-69 5 8 15 27 42 57 82 108 120 97 70-74 3 4 7 13 23 37 51 74 97 110 75+ 3 4 5 8 15 28 47 71 105 147 TOTAL 970 1220 1292 1452 1590 1701 1779 1846 1898 1936 FEMALES 0-4 122 136 110 108 116 120 122 122 120 118 5-9 105 131 132 115 111 117 120 122 122 119 10-14 86 110 127 134 116 111 117 120 122 122 15-19 73 90 103 129 135 117 111 117 120 122 20-24 72 80 74 107 132 136 117 111 117 120 25-29 73 81 62 78 110 133 136 116 111 117 30-34 64 80 66 65 81 111 133 136 116 111 35-39 50 68 70 69 67 81 110 132 136 116 40-44 34 52 62 71 69 67 81 110 132 135 45-49 24 35 49 62 71 69 67 80 109 131 50-54 15 24 33 48 62 70 68 66 80 108 55-59 9 15 23 32 48 61 69 67 65 79 60-64 6 9 14 22 31 46 59 67 66 64 65-69 4 6 8 13 21 30 44 57 65 64 70-74 3 4 5 7 12 20 28 42 54 62 75+ 4 5 5 7 11 17 29 44 68 97 TOTAL 742 924 943 1068 1192 1307 1411 1511 1602 1685 BIRTH RATE 28.0 21.1 18.1 17.6 16.8 16.2 15.3 14.2 13.5 DEATH RATE 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.3 5.1 5.9 6.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.53 1.84 1.52 1.45 1.32 1.18 1.02 .84 .68 NET MIGRATION RATE 19.6 -10.1 8.8 5.3 2.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 4.49 .84 2.40 1.98 1.56 1.18 1.02 .83 .68 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.860 3.105 2.751 2.437 2.159 2.057 2.053 2.050 2.047 NRR 1.849 1.497 1.330 1.181 1.048 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 73.26 74.65 75.99 77.25 78.02 78.81 79.63 80.49 81.38 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 59.94 61.00 62.11 63.21 63.88 64.56 65.28 66.03 66.81 INR - BOTH SEXES 16.0 12.3 9.9 8.2 7.2 6.3 5.4 4.4 3.5 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0194 .0151 .0123 .0104 .0093 .0082 .0071 .0060 .0049 DEP. RATIO 62.3 58.6 55.0 46.2 41.7 42.4 46.4 51.1 55.4 56.5 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 131 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods KUWAIT AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1712 2520 3501 3935 4083 4139 4171 4187 MALES 0-4 126 110 123 124 124 123 123 123 5-9 107 117 126 124 123 123 123 123 10-14 88 137 126 123 123 123 123 123 15-19 72 134 123 122 122 123 123 123 20-24 77 119 120 121 123 123 123 123 25-29 115 106 113 122 123 123 123 122 30-34 111 100 118 124 123 122 122 122 35-39 89 109 140 124 122 121 122 122 40-44 65 139 142 121 120 121 121 121 45-49 49 126 129 117 118 120 121 121 50-54 32 96 113 109 118 120 120 120 55-59 18 65 101 112 119 118 118 1'8 60-64 9 45 103 129 116 115 115 115 65-69 5 27 120 125 108 109 111 111 70-74 3 13 97 106 99 102 105 106 75+ 3 8 105 190 221 236 244 248 TOTAL 970 1452 1898 1993 2002 2022 2035 2042 FEMALES 0-4 122 108 120 120 120 120 120 120 5-9 105 115 122 121 120 120 120 120 10-14 86 134 122 120 119 119 120 120 15-19 73 129 120 118 119 120 120 120 20-24 72 107 117 118 119 120 120 120 25-29 73 78 111 119 120 120 120 120 30-34 64 65 116 122 120 120 119 119 35-39 !O 69 136 122 119 119 119 119 40-44 34 71 132 119 118 119 119 119 45-49 24 62 109 116 117 119 119 119 50-54 15 48 80 109 118 119 119 119 55-59 9 32 65 113 120 119 118 118 60-64 6 22 66 131 118 117 117 118 65-69 4 13 65 125 114 114 116 117 70-74 3 7 54 100 109 112 115 116 75+ 4 7 68 170 309 342 356 363 TOTAL 742 1068 1602 1942 2081 2117 2136 2145 BIRTH RATE 22.0 15.9 13.0 12.1 11.8 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 2.8 4.5 8.4 10.6 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 5.6 1.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.58 1.31 .47 .15 .05 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.203 2.138 2.045 2.041 2.039 2.038 2.037 tCO) - BOTH SEXES 74.73 78.94 82.28 84.02 84.99 85.71 86.01 IMR - BOTH SEXES 13.0 6.3 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 132 COUNlRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES KYRGYZSTAN Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2015 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 3996 4395 4757 S189 52 6060 6470 6868 7263 7645 MALES 0-4 293 325 297 292 299 305 297 2 298 299 5-9 245 285 319 296 291 296 303 296 294 297 10-14 217 240 281 318 295 290 297 303 295 294 15-19 195 212 235 279 316 294 289 296 302 295 20-24 170 186 204 233 277 314 291 287 295 300 25-29 177 159 176 201 230 274 311 289 285 29, 30-34 147 166 1SO 173 199 228 271 308 287 284 35-39 114 138 158 147 171 196 225 269 306 285 40-44 63 107 132 155 144 168 193 222 265 303 45-49 69 58 101 127 150 140 164 189 218 261 50-54 76 64 54 96 122 144 135 159 183 212 55-59 65 T7 59 51 90 l1s 136 129 151 176 60-64 55 57 62 53 46 82 105 126 120 142 65-69 25 46 48 53 6 39 72 93 112 108 70-74 15 19 36 38 41 36 32 59 77 V: 75+ 25 21 21 34 42 49 so 47 67 95 TOTAL 1950 2154 2335 2547 2759 2971 3172 3366 3556 3738 FEMALES 0-4 287 313 266 281 287 292 285 283 286 286 5-9 240 280 307 285 280 287 292 284 283 286 10-14 215 235 276 307 284 280 286 291 284 283 15-19 188 209 231 276 307 284 279 286 291 284 20-24 170 179 202 230 275 306 284 279 286 291 25-29 180 159 170 201 230 275 305 283 279 285 30-34 149 171 152 169 201 229 274 305 282 278 35-39 116 143 166 152 169 200 228 273 304 282 40-44 64 112 139 164 151 168 199 227 272 303 45-49 69 62 109 138 163 1SO 167 197 226 271 50-54 82 67 60 108 136 161 148 165 195 224 55-59 77 79 65 59 105 133 158 145 162 193 60-64 74 72 75 62 sT 102 129 154 142 159 65-69 4 67 67 70 59 54 97 124 148 137 70-74 32 39 58 60 64 54 50 91 116 140 75+ 58 54 58 81 100 115 117 114 151 206 TOTAL 2046 2241 2422 2642 2867 3088 3298 3503 3707 3906 BIRTH RATE 31.9 26.5 23.7 22.2 20.8 18.9 17.6 16.7 15.8 DEATH RATE 7.6 6.8 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.43 1.98 1.74 1.62 1.49 1.31 1.20 1.12 1.02 NET MIGRATION RATE -5.2 3.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.91 1.58 1.74 1.62 1.49 1.31 1.20 1.12 1.02 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.944 3.524 3.104 2.761 2.456 2.185 2.085 2.077 2.069 NRR 1.831 1.649 1.463 1.310 1.169 1.044 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 67.98 69.32 70.76 72.22 73.28 74.38 75.52 76.72 77.97 S15) - BOTH SEXES 56.29 57.16 58.15 59.23 60.06 60.92 61.83 62.78 63.78 IMR - BOTH SEXES 33.5 28.7 23.9 19.6 17.0 14.4 11.9 9.3 6.7 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0410 .0346 .0286 .0235 .0206 .0176 .0146 .0117 .0087 DEP. RATIO 73.8 77.9 76.1 68.7 59.0 53.0 50.7 49.7 49.7 49.3 COMPAUBS, ESCONOMIES. AND TlRRrrORIES 133 Summry Projection for 25-Year Perfods KYRGYZSTAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 3996 5189 7263 8860 9612 4J40 9976 10041 MALES 0-4 293 292 296 296 299 299 299 299 5-9 245 296 294 29 299 299 299 299 10-14 217 318 295 296 2I 299 299 299 15-19 195 279 302 29S 299 299 299 299 20-24 170 233 295 296 297 290 296 298 25-29 177 201 265 294 296 29? 297 297 30-34 147 173 287 269 294 296 296 297 35-39 114 147 306 269 29 m 295 296 40-44 63 155 265 m 292 2 294 295 45-49 69 127 218 284 286 291 292 m 50-54 76 96 183 271 282 266 289 290 55-59 65 51 151 265 272 280 284 285 60-64 55 53 120 270 263 2m2 277 279 65-69 25 53 112 216 254 260 266 269 70-74 15 38 77 159 227 241 249 253 75+ 25 34 67 207 430 SOy 558 583 TOTAL 1950 2547 3556 4326 4684 4612 4892 4929 FEMALES 0-4 287 281 286 285 25 28 286 285 5-9 240 285 283 285 285 265 285 285 10-14 215 307 284 286 286 285 285 285 15-19 188 276 291 286 286 28S 285 285 20-24 170 230 286 26 285 265 285 285 25-29 180 201 279 285 285 285 265 285 30-34 149 169 262 261 261 285 285 285 35-39 116 152 304 282 281 2J5 285 285 40-44 64 164 272 289 281 264 264 284 45-49 69 138 226 282 2 283 284 284 50-54 rF2 108 195 273 261 282 263 283 55-59 77 59 162 275 276 280 262 282 60-64 74 62 142 291 274 279 280 281 65-69 46 70 148 255 276 276 276 279 70-74 32 60 116 20A 264 27 273 275 75S 58 81 151 386 UT9 795 839 861 TOTAL 2046 2642 3707 4534 4929 S526 5084 5111 BIRTH RATE 27.1 19.1 14.5 12.6 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.8 5.8 6.6 9.4 11.1 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -2.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.74 1.35 .80 .u3 .09 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.501 2.286 2.066 2.061 2.05B 2.057 2.056 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 69.43 74.57 79.52 82.46 U6.04 85.23 85.69 INR - BOTH SEXES 28.9 14.5 5.4 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 134 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES LATIA Projection (thousands) with NRR-1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 2621 2686 2765 2813 2861 2904 2944 2982 3017 3054 MALES 0-4 104 97 98 97 98 99 99 99 98 98 5-9 94 106 99 98 96 97 99 99 99 98 10-14 87 96 107 98 98 96 97 99 99 98 15-19 94 88 97 107 98 98 96 97 99 99 20-24 94 95 90 96 106 98 97 96 97 98 25-29 103 96 97 89 95 105 97 96 95 96 30-34 98 104 97 96 88 94 105 96 96 95 35-39 88 98 105 96 95 87 94 104 96 95 40-44 74 87 97 103 94 94 86 93 103 95 45-49 83 72 85 94 100 92 92 85 91 102 50-54 78 79 69 82 91 97 90 90 83 89 55-59 71 72 73 65 77 87 93 86 86 80 60-64 55 63 65 66 59 71 80 87 81 82 65-69 34 46 53 56 58 52 63 72 79 75 70-74 22 26 36 42 45 47 43 54 62 69 75+ 39 31 30 38 48 56 63 66 76 92 TOTAL 1218 1257 1299 1323 1347 1371 1395 1417 1439 1460 FEMALES 0-4 100 93 94 92 93 95 95 94 94 93 5-9 91 102 95 94 92 93 95 95 94 93 10-14 84 92 104 95 94 92 93 94 95 94 15-19 88 86 94 103 94 94 92 93 94 95 20-24 88 91 89 94 103 94 94 92 93 94 25-29 103 92 94 89 94 103 94 93 92 93 30-34 99 105 95 94 89 93 103 94 93 92 35-39 92 101 107 95 94 89 93 103 94 93 40-44 80 93 101 106 94 94 88 93 102 94 45-49 92 80 92 100 105 93 93 88 92 102 50-54 92 91 79 91 99 104 93 92 87 92 55-59 88 89 88 77 89 98 103 91 91 86 60-64 91 84 86 86 75 87 96 101 90 90 65-69 67 84 79 81 82 72 84 93 98 as 70-74 47 58 75 72 76 77 68 80 89 94 75+ 100 as 95 121 140 155 167 168 181 201 TOTAL 1403 1429 1466 1490 1514 1533 1550 1565 1578 1593 BIRTH RATE 14.3 14.1 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.1 12.8 12.7 DEATH RATE 12.9 11.2 10.3 10.1 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. .15 .Z9 .34 .34 .30 .27 .25 .24 .24 NET MIGRATION RATE 3.4 2.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .49 .58 .34 .34 .30 .27 .25 .24 .24 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.030 2.030 2.030 2.035 2.041 2.046 2.051 2.056 2.061 NRR .970 .972 .974 .979 .983 .987 .991 .995 .999 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 69.86 71.87 73.69 7r,.35 76.21 77.12 78.07 79.07 80.12 eCl5) - BOTH SEXES 56.12 58.02 59.71 61.24 62.04 62.88 63.76 64.68 65.66 INR - BOTH SEXES 11.5 10.2 8.9 7.6 6.9 6.3 5.6 5.0 4.3 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0142 .0127 .0111 .0096 .0089 .0081 .0074 .0066 .0059 DEP. RATIO 49.7 52.0 53.5 53.8 55.3 55.1 56.9 59.6 62.7 64.2 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES 135 Summary Projoction for 25-Year Periods LATIVA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 2621 2813 3017 3141 3213 3261 3293 3309 HALES 0-4 104 97 98 98 98 98 98 98 5-9 94 98 99 98 98 98 98 98 10-14 87 98 99 98 98 98 98 98 15-19 94 107 99 98 98 98 98 98 20-24 94 96 97 97 98 98 98 98 25-29 103 89 95 97 98 98 98 98 30-34 98 96 96 97 97 97 97 98 35-39 88 96 96 97 97 97 97 97 40-44 74 103 103 96 96 96 97 97 45-49 83 94 91 94 95 96 96 96 50-54 78 82 83 91 93 95 95 95 55-59 71 65 86 89 92 93 94 94 60-64 55 66 81 86 89 90 91 92 65-69 34 56 79 87 85 86 88 89 70-74 22 42 62 70 77 80 83 84 75+ 39 38 76 124 157 176 188 194 TOTAL 1218 1323 1439 1519 1567 1596 1615 1625 FEMALES 0-4 100 92 94 94 94 94 94 94 5-9 91 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 10-14 84 95 95 94 94 94 94 94 15-19 88 103 94 94 94 94 94 94 20-24 88 94 93 93 94 94 94 94 25-29 103 89 92 93 94 94 94 94 30-34 99 94 93 94 94 94 94 94 35-39 92 95 94 94 94 94 94 94 40-44 80 106 102 94 93 93 93 94 45-49 92 100 92 92 93 93 93 93 50-54 92 91 87 91 92 93 93 93 55-59 88 77 91 91 92 93 93 93 60-64 91 86 90 91 92 92 92 92 65-69 67 81 98 97 91 91 91 92 70-74 47 72 89 85 87 89 90 91 75+ 100 121 181 230 255 271 281 286 TOTAL 1403 1490 1578 1622 1646 1665 1678 1684 BIRTH RATE 14.0 13.3 12.5 12.1 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 11.4 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .47 .28 .16 .09 .06 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.028 2.046 2.062 2.059 2.058 2.056 2.056 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 71.84 77.19 81.25 83.46 84.65 85.53 85.88 INR - BOTH SEXES 10.2 6.3 3.7 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 136 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES AND TERRrMTRIES LEBANON Projection (thousands) with NRR-1 by 2015 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 2668 2681 2813 3013 3270 3510 3738 3974 4221 4465 MALES 0-4 173 188 196 193 185 177 172 177 184 185 5-9 161 157 178 190 191 184 176 171 176 183 10-14 171 151 151 175 189 191 183 176 171 176 15-19 165 160 144 147 174 188 190 182 175 170 20-24 120 142 147 137 16 172 187 189 181 174 25-29 81 90 125 137 136 144 171 185 187 180 30-34 71 55 75 116 136 134 143 169 184 186 35-39 58 51 44 69 115 134 133 142 168 183 40-44 46 43 40 68 113 132 131 140 166 45-49 48 37 39 40 39 66 110 129 129 138 50-54 51 42 33 36 38 37 64 107 125 125 55-59 47 46 39 31 34 36 35 60 102 120 60-64 35 42 41 35 28 31 33 32 56 95 65-69 21 29 35 35 30 24 27 29 29 50 70-74 21 16 23 27 27 24 19 22 24 24 75+ 21 24 22 2S 30 34 33 30 31 33 TOTAL 1289 1275 1334 1432 1564 1689 1807 1931 2061 2189 FEMALES 0-4 169 181 188 185 178 170 165 169 176 176 5-9 158 153 172 183 184 In 170 164 169 175 10-14 167 148 147 168 183 184 177 169 164 169 15-19 161 157 142 144 168 182 184 176 169 164 20-24 135 143 145 136 143 167 181 183 176 169 2529 116 114 129 138 135 142 166 181 182 175 30-34 89 99 103 123 137 134 141 165 180 182 35-39 65 77 91 98 121 135 133 140 164 179 40-44 54 S8 72 se 97 120 134 131 139 163 45-49 53 50 55 70 86 95 118 132 130 138 50-54 53 50 47 52 68 84 93 116 129 128 55-59 48 SO 47 45 50 65 81 90 112 126 60-64 37 44 46 44 42 47 62 77 86 108 65-69 23 33 39 41 39 38 43 57 72 81 70-74 24 19 27 32 34 33 33 38 50 65 75+ 28 31 29 33 41 47 51 54 60 77 TOTAL 1379 1406 1479 1581 1706 1821 1930 2042 2160 2276 BIRTH RATE 30.4 30.1 27.4 23.9 21.2 19.1 18.4 17.8 16.8 DEATH RATE 8.9 8.8 8.2 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.15 2.13 1.92 1.64 1.42 1.26 1.23 1.21 1.12 NET MIGRATION RATE -20.6 -11.7 .5.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .09 .97 1.37 1.64 1.42 1.26 1.23 1.21 1.12 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.790 3.490 3.190 2.829 2.509 2.226 2.121 2.106 2.090 NRR 1.681 1.567 1.451 1.304 1.165 1.041 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTN SEXES 65.00 65.72 66.78 68.06 69.36 70.71 72.12 73.60 75.15 *(1S) - BOTH SEXES 54.90 SS.21 55.61 56.24 57.16 58.12 59.13 60.19 61.31 INR - BOTH SEXES 48.0 44.4 38.5 32.3 27.9 23.5 19.1 14.7 10.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0620 .0567 .0480 .0394 .0341 .0288 .0235 .0182 .0129 DEP. RATIO 74.2 72.9 75.1 74.7 67.0 57.6 50.2 46.2 44.8 45.4 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TBRRrYORIES 137 Stimmry Projection for 25-Year Poriods LEBANON AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N4F 2668 3013 4221 5231 5706 5870 5974 6026 MALES 0-4 173 193 184 180 180 180 180 180 5-9 161 190 176 178 180 180 180 180 10-14 171 175 171 178 180 180 180 180 15-19 165 147 175 181 181 180 180 180 20-24 120 137 11 183 181 180 179 180 25-29 81 137 1s7 181 178 178 179 179 30-34 71 116 184 173 176 178 179 179 35-39 58 69 168 167 175 178 178 178 40-44 46 40 140 170 177 178 178 178 45-49 48 40 129 175 178 176 176 176 50-54 51 36 125 177 174 172 174 174 55-59 47 31 102 169 162 167 170 172 60-64 35 35 56 147 151 162 167 168 65-69 21 35 29 114 147 157 161 162 70-74 21 27 24 92 138 148 151 153 75+ 21 25 31 126 262 301 333 349 TOTAL 1289 1432 2061 2592 2820 2897 2945 2968 FEMALES 0*4 169 18S 176 172 171 172 172 172 5-9 158 183 169 170 171 172 172 172 10-14 167 168 164 170 172 172 172 172 15-19 161 144 169 173 173 172 172 172 20-24 135 136 176 175 173 172 171 172 25-29 116 138 182 175 171 171 171 172 30-34 89 123 180 168 169 171 171 172 35-39 65 98 164 162 169 171 172 171 40-44 54 e8 139 167 171 172 171 171 45-49 53 70 130 172 173 171 171 171 50-54 53 52 129 177 171 169 169 170 55-59 48 45 112 172 163 166 168 170 60-64 37 44 86 153 155 164 168 169 65-69 23 41 72 125 156 164 167 167 70-74 24 32 S0 109 155 162 163 164 75+ 28 33 60 200 373 433 479 503 TOTAL 1379 1581 2160 2640 2886 2972 3029 3058 BIRTH RATE 29.3 19.9 14.9 12.9 12.2 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 8.6 6.5 6.5 9.4 11.1 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -12.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 OROUTH RATE .81 1.35 .86 .35 .11 .07 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.465 2.333 2.082 2.068 2.063 2.059 2.058 *(0) - BOTH SEXES 65.86 70.95 77.13 80.96 83.11 84.75 85.39 INR - BOTH SEXES 43.7 23.6 7.9 3.8 2.9 2.3 2.1 138 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES lIBYA Projection (thousands) wfth NRR=1 by 2050 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 3786 4546 5450 6492 7693 9052 10570 12236 14026 15899 MALES 0-4 359 421 508 590 678 769 861 949 1025 1082 5-9 291 353 416 502 584 673 764 857 945 1022 10-14 247 290 351 414 501 583 671 762 855 944 15-19 197 246 288 350 412 498 580 668 760 852 20-24 153 199 245 286 347 409 495 576 664 755 25-29 138 157 199 243 283 344 406 491 573 660 30-34 130 141 157 198 241 281 341 403 488 569 35-39 117 132 141 156 195 238 278 338 399 484 40-44 99 117 130 139 153 192 235 275 334 395 45-49 80 97 114 127 135 150 l88 230 270 329 50-54 64 77 93 109 122 130 145 183 224 262 55-59 46 60 72 87 103 115 123 137 174 214 60-64 32 41 53 64 79 94 105 114 127 162 65-69 21 27 35 46 55 68 82 93 101 114 70-74 13 16 21 27 36 44 55 67 76 84 75+ 11 13 17 21 28 39 50 65 81 99 TOTAL 2000 2388 2841 3358 3952 4626 5380 6207 7097 8028 FEMALES 0-4 344 408 491 569 653 740 828 911 983 1036 5-9 280 339 404 486 565 649 736 825 909 981 10-14 237 279 338 402 485 563 648 735 824 908 15-19 187 236 278 337 401 484 562 647 734 823 20-24 144 187 236 277 336 400 483 561 645 733 25-29 125 143 186 235 276 335 399 481 560 644 30-34 109 124 143 185 233 275 334 398 480 558 35-39 88 108 123 141 184 232 274 332 396 478 40-44 70 86 106 122 140 182 230 272 330 393 45-49 55 68 85 104 120 138 180 228 269 327 50-54 44 53 66 83 102 118 136 177 224 265 55-59 34 42 51 64 80 99 114 132 173 219 60-64 27 31 39 48 61 76 95 110 128 167 65-69 19 24 28 35 44 56 71 89 103 121 70-74 13 15 19 23 30 38 49 63 80 94 75+ 11 14 17 22 30 39 52 70 93 124 TOTAL 1786 2158 2609 3134 3740 4425 5190 6029 6929 7870 BIRTH RATE 43.7 43.2 41.4 39.6 37.7 35.7 33.6 31.2 28.7 DEATH RATE 9.1 7.8 6.6 5.6 5.2 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.47 3.55 3.48 3.39 3.25 3.10 2.93 2.73 2.51 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.9 .8 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 3.66 3.63 3.50 3.39 3.25 3.10 2.93 2.73 2.51 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.870 6.465 6.060 5.655 5.250 4.845 4.440 4.035 3.630 NRR 2.891 2.817 2.713 2.579 2.419 2.254 2.086 1.915 1J39 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 60.75 63.46 66.00 68.38 69.67 71.01 72.40 73.84 75.33 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 53.51 54.88 56.26 57.76 58.45 59.16 59.91 60.70 61.52 IMR - BOTH SEXES 82.0 68.6 56.9 46.7 39.5 32.2 25.0 17.7 10.5 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .1037 .0844 .0679 .0554 .0469 .0385 .0300 .0215 .0130 DEP. RATIO 95.1 93.7 94.2 93.6 92.1 88.9 85.3 81.2 76.4 71.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 139 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods LIBYA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 3786 6492 14026 22949 30072 34117 35155 35490 MALES 0-4 359 590 1025 1022 1057 1064 1063 1061 5-9 291 502 945 1067 1072 1066 1062 1060 10-14 247 414 855 1094 1082 1063 1059 1059 15-19 197 350 760 1100 1068 1054 1056 1059 20-24 153 286 664 1072 1027 1046 1055 1058 25-29 138 243 573 1009 1012 1049 1057 1057 30-34 130 198 488 928 1053 1061 1057 1053 35-39 117 156 399 835 1076 1067 1051 1048 40-44 99 139 334 737 1075 1049 1038 1042 45-49 80 127 270 639 1041 1003 1025 1036 50-54 64 109 224 542 968 978 1019 1030 55-59 46 87 174 448 871 1001 1017 1017 60-64 32 64 127 349 757 996 999 990 65-69 21 46 101 270 633 954 949 947 70-74 13 27 76 192 502 863 858 888 75+ 11 21 81 227 714 1556 1945 2062 TOTAL 2000 3358 7097 11530 15006 16871 17311 17467 FEMALES 0-4 344 569 983 975 1008 1014 1013 1012 5-9 280 486 909 1020 1022 1017 1012 1011 10-14 237 402 824 1047 1032 1014 1010 1010 15-19 187 337 734 1055 1020 1006 1008 1010 20-24 144 277 645 1032 983 1000 1009 1011 25-29 125 235 560 977 971 1005 1012 1012 30-34 109 185 480 902 1015 1019 1015 1011 35-39 88 141 396 816 1040 1027 1011 1008 40-44 70 122 330 724 1046 1014 1002 1004 45-49 55 104 269 633 1019 974 994 1004 50-54 44 83 224 544 959 959 996 1005 55-59 34 64 173 460 877 996 1006 1004 60-64 27 48 128 371 782 1012 1007 995 65-69 19 35 103 298 680 1003 985 978 70-74 13 23 80 229 573 955 932 958 75+ 11 22 93 337 1040 2230 2833 2989 TOTAL 1786 3134 6929 11419 15066 17246 17845 18023 BIRTH RATE 42.6 34.9 22.8 15.6 12.9 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 7.7 4.6 3.6 5.0 7.9 10.7 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE .9 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.59 3.08 1.97 1.08 .50 .12 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.415 4.701 2.788 2.067 2.062 2.059 2.058 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 63.71 71.47 77.40 81.11 83.21 84.80 85.42 IMR - BOTH SEXES 67.9 30.8 7.9 3.7 2.8 2.3 2.1 140 COUNTRHS, ECONOME. AMND TERRUORIES ITHIJANAU ProJoction (thousnds) With NRR-1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 3S78 3731 3901 4007 4110 4199 4280 4356 4427 4494 MALES I 0-4 147 142 145 143 142 143 144 144 143 143 5-9 136 150 145 145 142 142 143 144 143 143 10-14 130 138 152 144 144 142 142 143 143 143 15-19 142 132 140 152 144 144 142 142 143 143 20-24 140 145 135 139 151 143 143 141 141 142 25-29 153 144 149 134 138 150 142 143 141 140 30-34 134 157 148 148 133 137 149 142 142 140 35-39 117 136 158 146 147 132 136 148 141 141 40-44 98 117 136 156 144 145 131 135 147 140 45-49 104 97 115 133 153 142 143 129 133 145 50-54 98 100 93 111 129 149 138 139 126 131 55-59 91 91 94 as 106 123 142 133 135 122 60-64 72 81 83 86 81 98 115 134 126 128 65-69 48 61 70 72 76 72 88 105 123 117 70-74 27 37 48 56 59 63 61 76 91 109 75+ 57 42 43 54 67 77 88 94 111 137 TOTAL 1693 1771 1855 1907 1957 2004 2048 2090 2129 2165 FEMALES 0-4 141 136 139 136 136 137 137 137 137 137 5-9 131 144 139 138 136 136 137 137 137 137 10-14 127 134 147 139 138 136 136 137 137 137 15-19 132 130 136 147 139 138 136 136 137 137 20-24 132 138 135 136 146 138 138 136 136 137 25-29 150 139 144 135 136 146 138 138 136 135 30-34 136 156 144 144 134 136 146 138 138 135 35-39 122 139 158 144 143 134 135 146 138 137 40-44 107 124 140 158 143 143 134 135 145 137 45-49 117 107 123 139 157 142 142 133 134 145 50-54 117 115 106 122 138 15S 141 141 132 133 55-59 115 113 113 104 120 136 153 139 139 131 60-64 110 110 110 109 101 117 133 150 137 137 65-69 81 102 104 105 105 98 114 129 146 134 70-74 51 71 92 96 96 99 93 108 124 141 75+ 117 102 116 151 183 205 221 227 246 279 TOTAL 1885 1960 2046 2101 2153 2195 2232 2266 2298 2329 BIRTH RATE 15.2 14.8 14.3 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.1 12.8 12.6 DEATH RATE 11.2 9.6 8.9 8.8 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 RATE OF MAT. INC. .40 .52 .54 .50 .43 .38 .35 .32 .30 MET MIGRATION RATE 4.4 3.7 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .84 .89 .54 .50 .43 .38 .35 .32 .30 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.000 2.000 2.000 2.010 2.020 2.030 2.039 2.049 2.059 NRR .957 .958 .960 .96r .973 .979 .986 .992 .998 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 71.13 73.04 74.75 76.33 77.14 77.98 78.87 79.79 80.77 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 57.35 59.15 60.74 62.20 62.93 63.70 64.51 65.36 66.25 INR - BOTH SEXES 11.0 9.8 8.5 7.3 6.6 5.9 5.2 4.5 3.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0136 .0122 .0107 .0093 .0085 .0077 .0069 .0061 .0053 DEP. RATIO 49.9 51.0 52.3 52.4 53.2 52.8 54.1 56.9 61.3 64.2 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 141 Suhry Projectfon for 25-Year Perfaed. LIT UANUI AGE GRO4P 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 3578 4007 4427 4621 4700 4760 4801 4822 MALES 0-4 147 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 5-9 136 145 143 143 143 143 143 143 10-14 130 144 143 143 143 143 143 143 15-19 142 152 143 143 143 143 143 143 20-24 140 139 141 142 143 143 143 143 25-29 153 134 141 142 142 142 142 142 30-34 134 148 142 142 142 142 142 142 35-39 117 146 141 141 141 141 142 142 40-44 98 156 147 139 140 141 141 141 45-49 104 133 133 137 139 140 140 140 50-54 98 111 126 135 137 138 139 139 55-59 91 88 135 133 134 136 136 137 60-64 72 86 126 128 130 132 133 134 65-69 48 72 123 126 123 126 128 129 70-74 27 56 91 105 113 118 121 122 75+ 57 54 111 200 239 261 276 284 TOTAL 1693 1907 2129 2241 2296 2332 2356 2369 FEMALES 0-4 141 136 137 137 137 137 137 137 5-9 131 138 137 137 137 137 137 137 10-14 127 139 137 137 137 137 137 137 15-19 132 147 137 137 137 137 137 137 20-24 132 136 136 136 137 137 137 137 25-29 150 135 136 136 137 137 137 137 30-34 136 144 138 137 136 136 136 136 35-39 122 144 138 137 136 136 136 136 40-44 107 158 145 136 136 136 136 136 45-49 117 139 134 134 135 136 136 136 50-54 117 122 132 134 135 135 136 136 55-59 115 104 139 135 135 135 135 135 60-64 110 109 137 133 133 134 134 135 65-69 81 105 146 138 131 132 133 134 70-74 51 96 124 125 127 130 132 132 75+ 117 151 246 352 379 397 410 417 TOTAL 1885 2101 2298 2380 2405 2428 2445 2453 BIRTH RATE 14.7 13.3 12.4 12.0 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.9 9.4 10.? 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .76 .40 .17 .07 .05 .0 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.004 2.029 2.061 2.059 2.057 2.056 2.056 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 73.02 78.06 81.78 83.76 84.83 85.61 85.93 INR - BOTH SEXES 9.7 5.9 3.4 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 142 COUNTRIES, ECONOMES, AND TERRITORIES LUXEMBOURG Projection (thousands) with NRR-1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL NF 367 378 384 387 388 368 387 387 386 385 MALES 0-4 11 13 13 12 11 11 12 12 11 11 5-9 10 15 14 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10-14 15 16 15 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 15-19 13 15 16 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 20-24 15 1 111 16 15 11 12 12 11 10 25-29 12 12 14 11 11 15 11 12 11 11 30-34 15 16 12 14 11 15 11 11 12 11 35-39 14 15 16 15 1 1 14 14 14 11 12 40-4 12 10 10 16 15 13 11 14 14 12 45-49 12 12 14 15 0s Is 13 11 10 13 50-54 12 12 12 14 is is Is 13 141 10 55-59 11 181 1 181 13 14 14 14 13 1I 60-4 8 10 10 10 10 13 13 14 14 12 65-69 6 7 9 9 9 10 12 12 1X 13 70-74 6 5 6 a 1 8 9 10 010 12 151 1 7 a 7 a 10 12 13 14 17 19 0-T4L 178 184 187 189 189 189 189 189 108 187 FE14LES 0-4 10 11 12 11 10 11 10 11 11 10 3-9 10 11 11 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 10-14 10 10 11 11 12 11 10 10 10 12 15-19 13 13 10 16 11 12 11 10 10 10 20-24 12 13 115 16 1 13 II 10 110 25-29 12 12 14 13 10 11 11 12 11 10 30-34 12 16 16 14 11 31 15 15 12 11 35-39 13 1s 16 16 14 13 10 11 11 12 40-69 8 10 11 16 16 14 12 10 11 15 45-49 12 12 13 Is 16 16 13 11 10 I1 50-54 12 12 9I 10 10 16 16 13 11 10 55-59 12 11 11 11 13 14 Is Is 13 11 60-64 II II 11 11 11 13 14 15 Is 13 65-69 8 10 11 10 11 II 12 14 is 15 70-74 9 7 9 10 10 10 10 12 13 14 75+ 14 15 15 16 19 21 22 23 26 29 TOTAL 189 194 197 198 199 199 ISO 198 198 198 BIRTH RATE 11.6 12.9 11.8 11.0 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.3 DEATH RATE 10.8 10.7 10.5 10.2 10.8 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.9 RATE OF MAT. INC. .08 .22 .14 .08 -.01 -.04 -.02 -.03 -.05 NET MIGRATION RATE 4.8 1.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .56 .32 .14 .08 -.01 -.04 -.02 -.03 -.05 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.450 1.750 1.796 1.842 1.886 1.930 1.972 2.014 2.054 NRR .693 .838 .862 .885 .907 .929 .950 .971 .992 etO) - BOTH SEXES 74.34 75.36 76.41 77.48 78.22 79.00 79.81 80.65 81.52 et1S) - BOTH SEXES 60.41 61.22 62.16 63.15 63.84 64.57 65.33 66.12 66.95 INR - BOTH SEXES 9.4 7.3 6.3 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.4 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0118 .0093 .i081 .0072 .0067 .0063 .0058 .0053 .0048 DEP. RATIO 43.9 44.5 48.4 50.8 52.9 53.2 56.4 62.1 69.4 76.4 COUN7RIES, ECONOMIES, AND TEtRRrrORIES 143 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods LUXEMBOURG AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 367 387 386 369 364 366 368 370 MALES 0-4 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 5-9 10 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10-14 11 1 1 1 10 11 11 11 11 15-19 13 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 20-24 12 14 11 11 11 11 11 11 25-29 1i 11 13 12 10 10 11 11 30-364 8 14 12 11 11 11 11 11 35-39 14 Is II 11 11 I1 11 II 40 44 12 16 I1 10 t1 11 11 11 45-49 12 15 10 10 11 11 11 11 50-54 12 14 8I 11 11 11 9I 11 55T59 11 11 13 12 10 10 10 11 60-64 8 10 14 10 10 10 10 10 65-69 6 9 13 10 9 10 10 10 70-14 6 a 11 1 9 9 9 9 15+ 7 a 17 21 21 21 22 22 TOTAL 178 1 1 1 179 10 182 182 FE2LES 0-4 15 14 11 10 10 10 10 10 5-9 10 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10-14 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 15-19 13 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 50-24 12 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 25-29 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 30-34 15 14 12 10 10 10 10 10 65-39 13 16 11 10 10 10 10 10 40-4 12 16 11 10 10 10 10 10 45-49 14 16 26 10 11 10 10 10 50-54 12 13 11 11 11 10 10 10 B R-59 12 11 13 12 10 10 10 10 60-66 11 11 15 10 10 10 10 10 65-69 R 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 70-74 9 10 13 9 10 10 10 10 7'5+ 14 16 26 33 31 30 31 32 TOTAL 189 198 198 189 185 185 187 187 BIRTH RATE 12.1 11.0 11.4 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.7 OEATH RATE 10.7 11.1 13.2 12.3 11.6 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .34 -.00 -.19 -.05 .02 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.659 1.928 2.066 2.066 2.064 2.063 2.063 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 75.38 79.03 82.38 84.10 85.01 85.69 85.98 IMR - BOTH SEXES 7.6 4.6 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 144 COUNlIRBMS ECONOMUES& AND 7 WURITORIES MALTA . ProJestion (thousands) with NRR=l by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1905 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 344 354 362 371 380 38S 396 403 409 414 NALES 0-4 14 14 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 5-9 1S 14 14 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 10-14 14 15 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 13 15-19 12 14 15 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 20-24 14 12 14 15 13 14 13 13 13 14 25-29 15 14 12 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 30-34 14 15 13 11 13 14 13 13 13 13 35-39 15 14 14 13 11 13 14 13 13 13 40-44 11 15 14 14 13 11 13 14 13 13 45-49 9 11 14 13 14 13 11 13 14 13 50-54 a 9 10 14 13 14 13 11 13 13 55-59 7 6 a 10 13 12 13 12 10 12 60-64 7 6 7 6 9 13 12 13 12 10 65-69 5 6 6 6 7 9 12 11 12 11 70-74 4 4 5 5 5 6 r10 10 11 75+ 5 5 6 ? 7 6 9 11 15 17 TOTAL 169 174 179 164 1S 193 197 201 204 207 FEMALES 0-4 14 13 13 13 13 13 S3 13 12 12 5-9 14 14 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 10-14 13 14 14 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 15-19 12 13 14 14 13 12 12 13 13 13 20-24 13 12 13 14 14 13 12 12 13 13 25-29 14 13 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 30-34 14 14 13 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 35-39 15 14 14 12 11 12 13 13 13 12 40-44 11 15 14 13 12 11 12 13 13 12 45-49 10 11 15 13 13 12 11 12 .13 13 50-54 10 10 11 14 13 13 12 11 12 13 55-59 9 10 9 10 14 13 13 12 11 12 60-64 a 9 9 9 10 14 13 12 11 11 65-69 6 7 a 9 9 9 13 12 12 11 70-74 5 5 6 7 6 6 9 12 11 11 75+ 6 6 6 10 11 13 1S 17 21 24 TOTAL 176 1S0 183 167 191 195 199 202 205 207 BIRTH RATE 15.9 14.8 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.6 13.1 12.8 12.6 DEATH RATE 9.2 8.9 6.6 8.5 J.8 9.1 9.3 9.6 10.1 RATE OF MAT. INC. .67 .59 .57 .57 .52 .45 .38 .31 .25 NET NliAtATION RATE -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -.9 -.7 -.5 -.3 -.2 .0 @011TH RATE .55 .4U .47 .4 .44 .40 .35 .29 .25 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.00M 2.00M 2.0J0 2.081 2.082 2.084 2.085 2.086 2.087 HRR .9U .97 .9 .9 .991 .993 .994 .996 .99m .999 elO) - BOTH SEXES 72.74 73.63 75.00 76.17 76.99 77.66 78.76 79.72 80.72 e(15) - IlTH SEXES 58.65 59.77 60.61 61.89 62.66 63.4 64.34 65.24 66.19 INR - BOTH SEXES 10.0 6.2 7.0 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.2 3.8 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0125 .0104 .0069 .0076 .0073 .0068 .0063 .0058 .0053 DEP. RATIO 51.3 51.0 49.1 4U.7 4 0.1 51.3 57.0 60.7 63.9 65.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 145 Suary ProJectfon for 25-Year Periods MALTA AGE GROUL 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL H+F 344 371 409 42 435 441 445 447 HALES 0-4 14 13 Is 13 13 13 13 13 5-9 1S 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 10-14 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 15-19 12 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 20-24 14 1S 13 13 13 13 13 13 25-29 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 30-34 14 11 13 13 13 13 13 13 35-39 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 40-44 11 t 13 13 13 13 13 13 45-49 9 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 50-54 8 14 13 12 13 13 13 13 55-59 7 10 10 12 13 13 13 13 60-64 7 8 12 12 12 12 13 13 65-69 5 6 12 11 12 12 12 12 70-74 4 5 10 11 11 11 11 11 75+ 5 7 15 20 23 25 26 27 TOTAL 169 184 204 212 217 220 221 222 FEMALES 0-4 14 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 5-9 14 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 10-14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 15-19 12 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 20-24 13 14 13 12 12 13 13 13 25-29 14 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 30-34 14 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 35-39 15 12 13 13 13 13 12 13 40-44 11 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 45-49 10 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 50-54 10 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 55-59 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 60-64 8 9 11 12 12 12 12 12 65-69 6 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 70-74 5 7 11 12 12 12 12 12 75+ 8 10 21 28 32 35 37 38 TOTAL 176 187 205 213 218 221 223 225 BIRTH RATE 15.0 13.5 12.5 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 8.9 9.1 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.1 -.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .50 .39 .16 .09 .06 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.086 2.064 2.086 2.082 2.079 2.078 2.077 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 73.87 77.93 81.71 83.67 84.76 85.56 85.88 INR - BOTH SEXES 8.4 5.1 3.4 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.0 146 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES MOLDOVA ProJection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2000 AGE GRWOP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 4192 4367 4498 4640 4839 5105 5370 5593 5777 5953 MALES 0-4 216 221 187 174 205 242 244 225 207 206 5-9 197 212 219 186 173 204 242 244 224 207 10-14 182 193 210 218 186 173 204 241 243 224 15-19 161 178 191 208 217 185 172 203 241 243 20-24 141 155 174 189 207 215 183 171 202 240 25-29 172 133 149 171 187 204 213 182 170 201 30-34 172 164 128 147 169 185 202 211 181 169 35-39 164 165 159 126 145 167 182 200 210 180 40-44 90 157 159 155 123 142 164 180 198 208 45-49 103 85 150 154 151 120 139 161 177 195 50-54 105 96 81 143 147 145 116 135 156 172 55-59 90 97 89 75 134 138 137 110 129 150 60-64 77 80 86 80 68 122 127 127 102 121 65-69 55 65 67 73 68 58 107 112 113 93 70-74 30 42 50 52 57 54 47 88 94 96 75+ 41 38 44 54 61 69 73 71 101 128 TOTAL 1995 2082 2143 2206 2297 2424 2553 2660 2748 2831 FEMALES 0-4 386 213 179 166 196 232 234 215 198 197 5-9 174 381 210 179 166 196 232 234 215 198 10-14 161 171 379 210 179 166 196 232 234 215 15-19 140 158 169 379 210 178 166 195 231 233 20-24 135 134 155 169 378 209 178 165 195 231 25-29 167 128 130 154 168 377 209 178 165 195 30-34 164 161 124 130 154 168 376 208 177 165 35-39 158 160 158 124 129 153 167 375 208 177 40-44 91 154 157 157 123 128 152 167 373 207 45-49 108 89 151 155 155 122 127 151 166 371 50-54 113 104 86 149 153 153 120 126 149 164 55-59 103 108 101 84 145 150 150 118 124 147 60-64 100 96 103 96 81 140 145 146 115 121 65-69 77 91 88 95 91 77 134 139 140 112 70-74 47 65 78 78 86 82 70 124 130 133 75+ 72 71 86 110 129 149 160 159 207 255 TOTAL 2197 2285 2355 2434 2543 2681 2817 2932 3029 3122 BIRTH RATE 21.0 17.0 15.1 17.2 19.3 18.5 16.2 14.4 13.9 DEATH RATE 9.6 9.2 8.9 8.7 8.7 8.4 8.1 7.9 7.8 RATE OF NAT. INC. 1.14 .77 .62 .84 1.07 1.01 .81 .65 .60 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.2 -1.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .82 .59 .62 .84 1.07 1.01 .81 .65 .60 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.100 2.632 2.234 2.092 2.088 2.083 2.078 2.074 2.069 NRR 1.455 1.245 1.064 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 68.05 69.51 71.03 72.54 73.56 74.63 75.76 76.95 78.19 WS) - BOTH SEXES 55.37 56.38 57.59 58.86 59.77 60.72 61.73 62.80 63.92 IMR - BOTH SEXES 23.8 18.6 14.9 12.0 10.8 9.6 8.4 7.2 5.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0285 .0223 .0181 .0148 .0134 .0120 .0106 .0092 .0078 DEP. RATIO 64.1 67.8 66.5 52.4 49.2 50.0 56.7 59.4 57.4 53.0 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRIrORIES 147 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods MOLDOVA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 4192 4640 5777 6638 7045 7233 7332 7377 HALES 0-4 216 174 207 220 221 220 220 220 5-9 197 186 224 226 222 220 219 219 10-14 182 218 243 226 219 219 219 219 15-19 161 208 241 217 216 218 219 219 20-24 141 189 202 204 215 219 219 219 25-29 172 171 170 204 218 220 219 218 30-34 172 147 181 221 223 220 218 218 35-39 164 126 210 238 223 217 216 217 40-44 90 155 198 234 212 212 215 216 45-49 103 154 177 195 199 210 214 215 50-54 105 143 156 161 197 211 214 213 55-59 90 75 129 167 208 213 211 210 60-64 77 80 102 186 218 207 203 204 65-69 55 73 113 164 204 189 192 196 70-74 30 52 94 131 157 167 180 186 75+ 41 54 101 184 279 380 417 431 TOTAL 1995 2206 2748 3178 3430 3540 3597 3623 FEMALES 0-4 386 166 198 210 211 210 210 210 5-9 174 179 215 216 212 210 209 209 10-14 161 210 234 217 210 209 209 209 15-19 140 379 231 208 206 208 209 210 20-24 135 169 195 197 206 209 210 210 25-29 167 154 165 198 210 211 210 209 30-34 164 130 177 214 215 211 209 209 35-39 158 124 208 232 216 209 208 209 40-44 91 157 373 229 206 205 208 209 45-49 108 155 166 193 195 204 208 209 50-54 113 149 149 162 195 208 209 209 55-59 103 84 124 172 210 212 209 207 60-64 100 96 115 199 225 211 206 205 65-69 77 95 140 350 219 200 201 203 70-74 47 78 130 150 180 186 197 202 75+ 72 110 207 314 499 589 623 635 TOTAL 2197 2434 3029 3460 3615 3693 3735 3754 BIRTH RATE 17.6 17.0 13.9 12.5 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.3 8.3 8.3 10.1 11.0 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .68 .88 .56 .24 .11 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.624 2.083 2.066 2.061 2.059 2.057 2.056 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 69.56 74.79 79.69 82.57 84.11 85.26 85.71 IMR - BOTH SEXES 19.5 9.6 4.9 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.0 148 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIS, AND TERnIORIES MOROCCO ProJection (thousands) with NRR1 by 2020 AGE GROUlP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N4F 22061 25091 28461 31823 35046 38209 41265 44129 46938 49706 MALES 0-4 1741 1952 2144 2161 2108 2106 2089 2029 2051 2090 5-9 1576 1694 1909 2108 2134 2085 2087 2074 2018 2043 10-14 1398 1561 1681 1897 2097 2124 2077 2080 2069 2014 15-19 1219 1384 1S47 1668 1884 2085 2113 2068 2073 2063 20-24 1009 1200 1365 1529 1650 1867 2068 2099 2056 2062 25-29 911 990 1181 1345 l510 1632 1850 2052 2084 2044 30-34 712 892 972 1162 1327 1492 1616 1834 2037 2073 35-39 516 696 874 954 1144 1309 1474 1600 1818 2023 40-44 359 501 678 854 935 1123 1288 1454 1580 1800 45-49 357 345 484 657 830 911 1097 1261 1426 1554 50-54 313 338 328 462 629 797 878 1061 1223 1388 55-59 29A 289 314 306 432 591 753 832 1010 1169 60-64 199 262 259 283 277 393 540 692 769 939 65-69 183 168 222 221 242 239 342 474 612 685 70-74 126 141 130 173 173 192 192 278 389 508 75e 127 140 158 160 190 211 236 252 325 455 TOTAL 11039 12554 14247 15938 17563 19159 20701 22139 23542 24909 FEMALES 0-4 1678 less 2072 2086 2032 2028 2009 1949 1967 2002 5-9 1514 1637 1852 2043 2065 2015 2014 1998 1942 1962 10-14 1343 1501 1626 1842 2034 2057 2009 2009 1995 1939 15-19 1173 1330 1489 1615 1833 2025 2050 2003 2005 1992 20-24 1044 1158 1315 1475 1603 1821 2015 2041 1997 2000 25-29 918 1028 1142 1299 1460 1590 1809 2004 2033 1991 30-34 707 902 1011 1126 1285 1446 1577 1797 1994 2026 35-39 530 693 s85 995 1111 1270 1432 1564 1786 1985 -44 407 517 678 868 979 1095 1254 1417 l550 1m 45-49 441 395 503 661 849 959 1075 1234 1398 1533 50-54 329 424 380 486 640 825 934 1051 1209 1374 55-59 331 311 402 362 46. 614 793 903 1019 1177 6-64 184 304 287 372 337 435 578 752 860 977 65-69 170 162 268 254 332 303 395 530 695 802 70-74 121 138 132 221 211 279 258 341 4I4 616 754 132 149 171 179 248 289 362 397 483 646 TOTAL 11022 12537 14214 15885 17483 19050 20564 21990 23396 24797 BIRTH RATE 35.6 34.0 30.0 26.1 23.6 21.4 19.2 18.1 17.2 DEATH RATE 9.6 8.6 7.5 6.6 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.8 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.60 2.54 2.25 1.94 1.74 1.54 1.34 1.23 1.15 NET MIGRATION RATE -.3 -.2 -.2 -.1 -.1 -.1 -.0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.57 2.52 2.23 1.93 1.73 1.54 1.34 1.23 1.15 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.840 4.295 3.750 3.205 2.840 2.516 2.229 2.124 2.100 NRR 2.024 1.86 1.650 1.A3 1.293 1.159 1.038 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 60.75 62.47 6.33 66.25 67.68 69.15 70.68 72.26 73.91 (15) - BOTH SEXES 53.54 54.15 54.87 55.74 56.62 57.53 58.48 59.47 60.50 NR - BOTH SEXES 73.0 63.3 53.4 4.1 38.3 32.5 26.6 20.8 14.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .1013 .0860 .070 .0562 .0487 .0411 .0335 .0258 .0182 DEP. RATIO 84.6 79.7 76.8 72.2 65.5 S.4 51.7 48.5 47.0 46.4 COUNMthIHM ammNOMIES, AND TERRriTRIES 149 Sumuary Projectfon for 25-Year Periocs MOROCCO AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 22061 31823 4649 Sa72 6SO02 67309 68727 69408 MALES 0-4 1741 2161 2051 2070 2079 2060 2080 2079 5-9 1576 2108 201S 2069 2062 2080 2078 2078 10-14 1396 1897 2069 2061 2086 2060 2078 2077 15-19 1219 1666 2073 2068 2081 2076 2075 2076 20-24 1009 1529 2056 206S 2067 2069 2071 2073 25-29 911 1345 2084 2016 2049 2063 2067 2067 30-34 712 1162 2037 1960 2041 2060 2062 2062 35-39 516 954 1816 2020 2045 2056 2055 2055 40-44 359 854 1580 2012 2040 2043 2044 2046 45-49 357 657 1426 1976 2006 2017 2028 2033 50-54 313 462 1223 1971 1931 1960 2004 2013 55-59 294 306 1010 1667 1854 1938 1972 1982 60-64 199 263 769 1564 1824 169 1924 1935 65-69 183 221 612 1268 1715 1605 1845 1863 70-74 126 173 389 1001 153 1654 1720 1753 75+ 127 160 325 1244 2766 3350 3798 4008 TOTAL 11039 15936 23542 29316 32201 33239 33901 34201 FEMALES 0-4 1678 2086 1967 1975 1962 1963 1983 1982 5-9 1514 2043 1942 1976 1964 1963 1982 1981 10-14 1343 1842 1995 1991 1968 1963 1981 1981 15-19 1173 1615 2005 2002 19l6 1960 1980 1980 20-24 1044 1475 1997 1991 1975 1977 1979 1960 25-29 918 1299 2033 1951 1946 1976 1979 1979 30-34 707 1126 1994 1925 196 1977 1979 1976 35-39 530 995 17U6 1972 1976 1978 1976 1976 40-44 407 w68 lS50 1973 1962 1971 1971 1973 45-49 441 661 1396 1952 1962 1956 1964 1969 50-54 329 486 1209 1966 1909 1937 1956 1964 55-59 331 362 1019 1894 1662 1924 1948 1956 60-64 184 3m 860 1650 1876 1914 1935 1943 65-69 170 254 695 1370 1828 1609 1909 1921 70-74 121 221 46 1143 1729 1820 1860 188 75+ 132 179 483 1744 3912 4822 S445 5756 TOTAL 11022 1585 23396 29476 328S1 34069 34826 35207 BIRTH RATE 33.0 21.4 15.5 13.1 12.3 12.0 11.8 DEATH RATE J.5 6.0 6.6 9.1 11.0 11.1 11.4 MET MIGRATION RATE -.2 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.44 1.55 .90 .41 .13 .08 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.231 2.532 2.0S9 2.070 2.064 2.059 2.058 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 62.66 69.43 76.04 S0.20 82.65 84.53 85.25 INR - BOTH SEXES 63.0 32.7 10.8 4.2 3.1 2.3 2.1 150 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TBRRITORIES N ffERLANDS Projectioa (thousands) with NRR-1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 14492 14943 15433 15844 16105 16272 16392 16499 16583 16612 M4ALES 0-4 400 479 513 496 463 443 448 464 475 475 5-9 455 407 486 518 498 464 443 447 464 475 10-14 524 460 411 489 520 498 464 443 447 464 15-19 628 528 464 415 490 520 498 464 442 447 20-24 650 638 538 472 417 490 519 497 462 441 25-29 619 664 651 548 475 419 489 517 495 461 30-34 588 631 674 659 550 476 418 487 515 493 35-39 626 596 638 679 659 549 474 416 485 513 40-44 478 627 598 639 676 656 546 471 413 482 45-49 417 475 623 593 632 669 649 541 467 410 50-54 378 409 466 611 582 621 658 638 532 459 55-59 350 364 395 451 592 565 604 640 623 520 60-64 321 329 343 375 430 566 542 580 617 602 65-69 254 290 299 315 347 400 529 509 548 586 70-74 204 216 249 261 278 309 359 479 465 504 75+ 276 299 329 379 425 471 527 610 m 879 TOTAL 7167 7411 7678 7900 8035 8117 8167 8203 8222 8210 FEMALES 0-4 383 457 490 473 442 423 427 443 453 453 5-9 434 391 464 495 475 443 423 427 442 453 10-14 501 439 395 468 497 476 443 423 427 442 15-19 601 506 443 398 469 497 476 443 423 426 20-24 624 610 514 450 401 470 497 476 443 422 25-29 597 635 619 521 452 402 470 497 475 442 30-34 564 605 641 624 523 453 402 469 496 474 35-39 591 569 609 644 624 523 452 401 468 495 40-44 447 592 569 608 642 622 521 451 400 467 45-49 397 446 589 566 605 639 619 519 449 398 50-54 373 393 441 583 561 600 633 614 515 446 55-59 366 367 387 434 574 553 592 626 607 510 60-64 361 356 357 377 424 563 543 582 616 599 65-69 307 344 340 343 364 411 546 529 568 604 70-74 277 282 319 318 323 344 391 522 508 549 75+ 499 541 578 641 693 737 789 875 1070 1220 TOTAL 7325 7532 m5 7944 8070 8156 8225 8296 8361 8402 BIRTH RATE 12.7 13.2 12.4 11.4 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.2 DEATH RATE 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.3 10.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. .39 .45 .37 .26 .17 .13 .13 .10 .03 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.3 2.0 1.5 .6 .4 .1 .0 .0 .0 GROWITH RATE .61 .65 .53 .33 .21 .15 .13 .10 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.558 1.700 1.753 1.805 1.856 1.905 1.953 2.000 2.045 NRR .748 .817 .844 .870 .896 .920 .944 .968 .991 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.59 77.37 78.24 79.09 79.72 80.37 81.04 81.74 82.46 e(1S) - BOTH SEXES 62.48 63.22 63.98 64.76 65.33 65.93 66.54 67.18 67.83 IMR - BOTH SEXES 7.6 7.0 6.2 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0097 .0090 .0080 .0072 .0066 .0060 .0055 .0049 .0043 DEP. RATIO 45.2 44.5 46.2 48.8 49.4 49.9 54.6 59.8 66.8 74.7 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES 151 Suinry Projection for 25-Year Perfads NETHE L iANDS AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 14492 15864 16583 15936 15495 15529 15618 15668 MALES 0-4 400 496 475 465 464 464 465 465 5-9 455 518 464 459 463 464 465 464 10-14 524 489 447 458 464 465 465 464 15-19 628 415 442 465 467 465 464 464 20-24 650 472 462 473 467 464 463 463 25-29 619 548 495 472 462 461 462 462 30-34 588 659 515 459 455 459 461 461 35-39 626 679 485 441 452 459 460 460 40-44 478 639 413 434 458 460 459 458 45-49 417 593 467 452 464 458 456 455 50-54 378 611 532 478 458 450 450 451 55-59 350 451 623 489 439 438 442 445 60-64 321 375 617 449 413 426 434 436 65-69 254 315 548 367 392 417 422 422 70-74 204 261 465 387 385 401 400 400 75+ 276 379 7m3 1064 921 896 920 939 TOTAL 7167 7900 8222 7813 7623 7647 7687 7711 FEMALES 0-4 383 473 453 444 442 443 443 443 5-9 434 495 442 438 441 443 443 443 10-14 501 468 427 437 442 443 443 443 15-19 601 398 423 443 445 444 443 443 20-24 624 450 443 452 446 443 442 443 25-29 597 521 475 452 443 441 442 442 30-34 564 624 496 441 437 440 442 442 35-39 591 644 468 425 435 441 443 442 40-44 447 608 400 420 441 444 443 442 45-49 397 566 449 439 449 444 441 441 50-54 373 583 515 469 447 439 438 439 55-59 366 434 607 486 434 432 436 438 60-64 361 377 616 455 416 428 435 437 65-69 307 343 568 383 407 431 435 434 70-74 277 318 508 419 418 433 430 429 75+ 499 641 1070 1522 1328 1294 1332 1356 TOTAL 7325 7944 8361 8123 7873 7882 7931 7958 BIRTH RATE 12.8 11.1 11.1 11.7 * 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 8.8 9.5 12.7 12.8 11.7 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.9 .2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .59 .18 -.16 -.11 .01 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.655 1.902 2.058 2.059 2.058 2.057 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 77.41 80.40 83.15 84.54 85.30 85.86 86.10 INR X BOTH SEXES 6.9 4.5 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 152 COUNTRIE$, ECONOMIS, AND 1E3RRFORIES NORWAY Projection (thousand) with NRRal by 2030 AGE GROUP 1965 1990 lW9 2000 200S 2010 201S 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 4153 4242 4342 4434 4S11 4573 4636 4703 4768 4815 MALES 0-4 132 141 151 SO 145 140 140 143 146 147 5-9 139 133 142 152 151 145 140 140 14S 146 10-14 166 139 133 143 152 151 145 140 140 143 15-19 173 166 140 133 143 152 151 145 140 140 20-24 161 174 167 141 134 143 152 151 145 140 25-29 161 163 175 168 141 135 143 152 150 144 30-34 156 162 164 176 169 142 135 143 152 150 35-39 164 159 163 164 176 169 142 134 143 151 40-44 122 163 15 162 163 175 168 141 134 142 45-49 100 121 162 157 161 162 174 166 140 133 50-54 100 97 11 159 154 158 159 171 164 138 55-59 107 96 94 114 154 149 154 155 167 160 60-64 114 100 90 89 109 147 143 148 149 161 65-69 96 103 91 63 63 101 138 135 140 142 70-74 77 61 as SO 74 74 91 125 123 128 75+ 99 110 123 138 142 139 139 156 199 228 TOTAL 2065 2106 2160 2206 2249 2282 2314 2346 2374 2392 FEMALES 0-4 123 134 14 143 137 133 133 136 139 139 5-9 131 124 135 144 143 138 133 133 136 139 10-14 156 132 125 136 14S 143 138 133 133 136 15-19 162 157 132 125 136 145 144 138 133 133 20-24 152 163 15 133 126 137 145 144 138 133 25-29 152 154 165 159 134 127 137 145 144 138 30-34 147 153 154 165 159 135 127 137 145 144 35-39 152 148 154 1S5 165 159 135 127 137 145 40-44 115 152 147 153 154 165 159 134 127 136 45-49 97 115 151 147 153 154 164 1S 134 126 50-54 98 96 114 150 14S 151 153 163 157 133 55-59 107 97 95 112 148 144 SO 151 161 156 60-64 121 104 94 93 110 145 141 147 149 159 65-69 111 116 100 91 90 107 141 138 144 146 70-74 97 103 108 94 86 86 102 136 133 140 75+ 163 164 206 226 231 225 222 237 284 321 TOTAL 2086 2133 2182 2226 2262 2291 2322 2358 2394 2423 BIRTH RATE 13.2 13.6 13.4 12.7 12.1 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.0 DEATH RATE 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.S 9.6 9.5 9.3 9.4 10.0 RATE OF MAT. INC. .30 .37 .34 .28 .23 .24 .27 .26 .20 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.2 .9 .6 .6 .5 .3 .2 .1 .0 GROUTH RATE .42 .47 .42 .35 .27 .27 .29 .27 .20 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.800 1.900 1.923 1.947 1.970 1.992 2.015 2.037 2.059 NRR .662 .911 .923 .936 .948 .960 .972 .984 .995 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.75 77.64 78.54 79.44 80.05 80.67 81.31 81.97 82.65 e(1S) - BOTH SEXES 62.73 63.57s 6.39 65.20 65.73 66.26 66.84 67.42 68.02 INR - BOTH SEXES 6.4 7.9 7.0 6.2 5.6 4.9 4.3 3.6 3.0 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0106 .0100 .0090 .0081 .0073 .0065 .0058 .0050 .0042 DEP. RATIO 56.0 54.6 5S.3 55.3 53.8 52.8 5S.9 59.4 64.0 68.3 COUNTRIS. ECONOMIES, AND TEURrTORIES 153 Summry Projection for 25-Year Periodb NORWAY AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 4153 4434 4768 4J09 4785 4809 4835 4850 MALES 0-4 132 150 146 1" 144 144 144 144 5.9 139 152 143 143 144 144 144 144 10-14 166 143 140 143 144 144 144 144 15-19 173 133 140 144 145 144 144 144 20-24 161 141 145 146 144 144 144 144 25-29 161 168 150 145 143 143 143 143 30-34 158 176 152 142 142 143 143 143 35-39 164 164 143 138 141 143 143 143 40-44 122 162 134 138 142 143 142 142 45-49 100 157 140 141 143 142 141 141 50-54 100 159 164 145 141 139 140 140 55-59 107 114 167 144 136 136 137 138 60-64 114 89 149 132 129 133 135 135 65-69 96 83 140 119 124 130 131 131 70-74 77 80 123 116 120 124 124 124 75+ 99 138 199 292 277 277 286 291 TOTAL 2065 2208 2374 2373 2360 2372 2385 2392 FEMALES 0-4 123 143 139 137 137 137 137 137 5-9 131 144 136 136 136 137 137 137 10-14 156 136 133 136 137 137 137 137 15-19 162 125 133 1s3 137 137 137 137 20-24 152 133 138 139 137 137 137 137 25-29 152 159 144 138 137 136 137 137 30-34 147 165 145 136 135 136 137 137 35-39 152 155 137 133 135 136 137 137 40-44 115 153 127 132 137 137 137 136 45-49 97 147 134 137 138 137 136 136 50-54 98 150 157 142 137 136 136 136 55-59 107 112 161 143 134 134 135 135 60-64 121 93 149 133 130 133 135 135 65-69 111 91 144 121 129 133 134 134 70-74 97 94 133 125 131 133 133 132 75+ 163 226 284 412 400 401 412 419 TOTAL 2088 2226 2394 2436 2425 2437 2450 2457 BIRTH RATE 13.5 12.1 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 10.1 9.6 11.4 12.0 11.6 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.0 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .44 .29 .03 -.02 .02 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.875 1.992 2.065 2.064 2.063 2.062 2.062 e*O) - BTH SEXES 77.66 80.71 83.32 84.63 85.34 85.87 86.09 INN - BOTN SEXES 7.8 4.9 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 154 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES OMAN Projectfon (thousards) with NRR=1 by 2040 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 1242 1554 1901 2274 2680 3139 3641 4163 4672 5173 MALES 0-4 118 155 182 203 229 259 285 299 297 297 5-9 92 119 155 182 202 228 258 284 298 296 10-14 71 93 119 155 181 202 228 258 284 m 15-19 56 72 93 119 lS5 181 201 227 257 283 20-24 52 60 74 94 119 154 180 200 226 256 25-29 54 58 63 75 93 118 153 179 199 225 30-34 50 59 61 64 75 92 117 152 178 198 35-39 43 53 61 61 64 74 92 116 151 177 40-44 35 45 54 60 60 63 73 91 115 150 45-49 27 35 44 53 59 59 62 72 89 114 50-54 20 26 34 43 51 57 57 60 70 87 55-59 15 19 25 32 40 49 55 55 58 68 60-64 10 13 17 22 29 37 45 51 52 55 65-69 7 8 11 15 20 26 33 41 46 47 70-74 4 5 7 9 12 16 21 28 35 40 75+ 3 4 6 7 10 13 19 26 36 48 TOTAL 659 826 1006 1195 1398 1628 1878 2138 2391 2639 FEMALES 0-4 113 149 175 195 219 248 272 285 283 283 5-9 88 114 150 175 194 219 247 272 285 283 10-14 68 89 115 150 175 194 219 247 272 285 15-19 55 68 89 115 150 174 194 218 247 271 20-24 48 56 69 90 114 149 174 193 218 246 25-29 44 49 56 69 89 114 149 174 193 217 30-34 38 44 49 57 69 89 113 148 173 192 35-39 32 38 44 49 56 68 88 113 148 172 40-44 25 32 38 44 49 56 68 88 112 147 45-49 19 24 31 37 43 48 55 67 87 111 50-54 16 18 24 30 36 43 47 54 66 86 55-59 13 15 17 23 29 35 41 46 53 65 60-64 10 12 14 16 21 28 34 40 44 51 65-69 7 9 11 13 15 20 26 31 38 42 70-74 5 6 7 9 11 13 17 23 29 35 75+ 4 6 7 9 11 15 19 25 35 47 TOTAL 583 728 896 1079 1282 1511 1763 2025 2281 2534 BIRTH RATE 45.2 42.5 39.0 36.9 35.5 33.4 30.3 26.5 23.8 DEATH RATE 7.0 5.7 4.7 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.82 3.68 3.43 3.29 3.16 2.97 2.68 2.31 2.04 NET MIGRATION RATE 6.5 3.5 1.4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 4.48 4.04 3.58 3.29 3.16 2.97 2.68 2.31 2.04 TOTAL FERTILITY 7.170 6.870 6.270 5.670 5.070 4.470 3.870 3.270 2.859 NRR 3.186 3.145 2.926 2.679 2.404 2.127 1.848 1.567 1.375 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 63.94 66.76 69.26 71.56 72.65 73.81 75.03 76.32 77.68 etl5) - BOTH SEXES 52.84 54.54 56.44 58.33 59.23 60.18 61.19 62.26 63.41 INR - BOTH SEXES 40.0 28.9 22.1 17.3 15.1 12.8 10.5 8.3 6.0 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0502 .0349 .0265 .0209 .0183 .0157 .0131 .0104 .0078 DEP. RATIO 87.9 95.0 98.6 97.1 91.2 86.0 82.3 77.6 70.8 63.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 155 Summary Projection for 25-Year Perfods OMAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 1242 2274 4672 6965 8713 9454 9602 9667 MALES 0-4 118 203 297 291 287 288 288 288 5-9 92 182 m 282 286 288 288 288 10-14 71 155 284 279 287 289 289 288 15-19 56 119 257 290 291 289 288 288 20-24 52 94 226 295 292 288 287 287 25-29 54 75 199 293 289 285 286 287 30-34 50 64 178 294 279 283 285 286 35-39 43 61 151 278 275 283 286 286 40-44 35 60 115 251 285 286 285 284 45-49 27 53 89 219 288 286 283 282 50-54 20 43 70 190 283 280 278 279 55-59 15 32 58 165 278 266 272 275 60-64 10 22 52 135 256 256 267 270 65-69 7 15 46 97 220 256 260 261 70-74 4 9 35 68 178 243 247 246 75+ 3 7 36 89 280 509 546 566 TOTAL 659 1195 2391 3517 4353 4676 4735 4761 FEMALES 0-4 113 195 283 277 274 274 275 275 5-9 88 175 285 269 272 274 275 275 10-14 68 150 272 266 274 275 275 275 15-19 55 115 247 277 277 276 275 275 20-24 48 90 218 282 279 275 274 274 25-29 44 69 193 281 277 273 274 274 30-34 38 57 173 283 267 272 274 274 35-39 32 49 148 269 264 273 275 274 40-44 25 44 112 244 275 276 275 274 45-49 19 37 87 214 279 277 274 273 50-54 16 30 66 188 277 273 271 272 55-59 13 23 53 167 276 263 268 271 60-64 10 16 44 140 260 258 268 270 65-69 7 13 38 103 231 265 268 269 70-74 5 9 29 76 197 263 266 265 75+ 4 9 35 111 382 711 781 815 TOTAL 583 1079 2281 3447 4360 4778 4867 4906 BIRTH RATE 41.8 31.8 19.4 14.3 12.4 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.6 3.7 3.7 5.5 9.1 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE 3.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 4.03 2.88 1.60 .90 .33 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.726 4.237 2.304 2.065 2.061 2.058 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 67.00 74.21 79.29 82.23 83.89 85.14 85.63 IMR - BOTH SEXES 29.6 12.5 5.0 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.0 1S6 COUMNRIES, ECONOMIME AND TBRRrFDRIES OTHER EUROPE Projection (thousands) With NRRNI by 1990 AGE GROUP 198S 1990 199S 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 260 271 282 293 303 312 320 328 334 338 MALES 0-4 10 10 11 11 11. 11 11 11 12 12 5-9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 10-14 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 1 15-19 11 10 9 I1 11 II 11 I 11 1 1l 20-24 10 11 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 25-29 9 10 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 30-34 10 9 11 12 11 10 11 11 11 11 35-39 9 10 9 11 12 11 10 11 11 11 40-44 8 9 10 10 11 12 11 10 11 11 45-49 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 11 10 11 50-54 8 7 a 9 10 9 11 12 11 10 55-59 8 7 7 7 a 10 9 10 11 10 60-64 6 7 7 7 7 a 9 8 10 11 65-69 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 9 70-74 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 75+ 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 TOTAL 131 137 142 147 152 156 160 163 166 167 FEMALES 0-4 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 5-9 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10-14 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 1 11 11 15-19 9 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 20-24 9 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 25-29 8 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 30-34 8 9 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 35-39 8 9 9 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 40-44 7 8 9 9 11 11 11 10 10 11 45-49 6 7 a 9 9 11 11 11 10 10 50-54 7 6 7 a 9 9 11 11 11 10 55-59 7 7 6 7 a 9 9 10 11 11 60-64 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 65-69 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 10 70-74 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 75+ 10 12 12 13 13 13 12 13 14 15 TOTAL 129 135 140 16 151 156 160 165 168 171 BIRTH RATE 14.4 14.9 14.6 14.3 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.5 DEATH RATE 12.0 11.9 11.4 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.5 11.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. .24 .30 .33 .33 .32 .33 .35 .32 .25 NET MIGRATION RATE 6.0 5.1 4.2 3.4 2.6 1.9 1.2 .6 .0 GROWTH RATE .85 .80 .75 .67 .58 .52 .47 .38 .25 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.100 2.102 2.096 2.096 2.095 2.093 2092 2.091 2.090 NRR .997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 (0) - BOTH SEXES 74.85 75.30 75.67 75.9S 76.11 76.25 76.38 76.52 76.65 etl5) - BOTH SEXES 61.34 61.62 61.86 62.09 62.20 62.31 62.42 62.54 62.65 IMR - BOTH SEXES 13.7 11.8 10.5 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.7 8.5 qtS) - BOTH SEXES .0167 .0145 .0130 .0120 .0118 .0115 .0113 .0110 .0108 DEP. RATIO 59.6 57.6 58.0 57.1 54.9 52.9 52.6 53.8 54.9 57.4 COUNTRIES, ECONOMJES4 AND TERRITORIES 157 swiry Projection tor 25-Year Periods OTHER EUROPE AGE CRfUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N4F 260 m 334 345 347 348 348 349 HALES 0-4 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 5-9 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10-14 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 15-19 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 1 20-24 10 9 1 11 11 11 11 11 25-29 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 30-34 10 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 35-39 9 II 11 1 11 11 40-44 8 11 1 11 11 45-49 10 10 11 I11 11 50-54 t9 11 11 I11 11 55-59 8 7 11 10 10 10 10 10 60-6" 6 7 10 9 9 9 9 9 65-69 6 6 7 9 t 9 9 9 70-74 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 75+ 6 7 8 11 11 11 11 II TOTAL 131 147 166 168 169 169 169 169 FEMALES 0-4 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 5-9 8 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10-14 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 15-19 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 20-24 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 25-29 6 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 30-34 7 1 11 11 11 11 11 11 35-39 81 11 11 11 40-44 7 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 45-49 6 9 10 11 11 11 1 II 1 11 50-54 7 a 11 11 11 11 III 11 55-59 7 7 11 11 10 10 10 10 60-64 7 6 10 10 10 10 10 10 65-69 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 70-74 7 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 75+ 10 13 14 20 21 21 22 22 TOTAL 129 46 168 177 178 179 179 179 BIRTH RATE 14.7 13.9 13.2 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.9 DEATH RATE 11.7 10.6 11.9 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.8 MET MIGRATION RATE 5.1 1.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .80 .52 .13 .03 .01 .00 .00 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.098 2.093 2.087 2.083 2.082 2.082 2.081 eCO) * BOTH SEXES 75.29 76.26 76.93 77.42 77.60 77.72 77.75 INR - BOTH SEXES 11.9 9.2 6.1 7.3 7.0 6.9 6.8 158 COUINRIES, ECO1NOMIES, AND TERRrITRIES OTEIER NORTH AF CA ProJectlon (thousands) with NRR-1 by 2040 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 ¶995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 155 179 207 237 270 307 347 389 431 472 MALES 0-4 13 17 19 21 23 24 26 27 28 27 5-9 11 12 16 18 20 22 23 25 27 27 10-14 10 11 11 IS 18 20 21 23 25 27 15-19 8 10 10 11 i5 18 19 21 23 Z3 20-24 7 8 9 10 11 15 17 19 21 23 25-29 5 7 7 9 10 11 14 17 19 20 30-34 5 5 6 7 9 9 10 14 16 18 35-39 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 14 16 40-44 3 4 4 4 6 7 8 9 10 13 45-49 3 3 4 4 4 6 6 8 8 9 50-54 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 55-59 2 3 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 7 60-64 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 S 65-69 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 75+ 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 TOTAL 78 90 ¶03 118 135 153 172 193 214 234 FEMALES 0-4 13 17 19 21 22 24 26 27 27 27 5-9 11 12 16 18 20 21 23 25 27 27 10-14 9 11 12 15 18 19 21 23 25 27 15-19 8 9 10 11 15 18 19 21 23 .25 20-24 7 8 9 10 11 15 17 19 21 23 25-29 5 7 8 8 10 11 14 17 19 20 30-34 5 5 7 7 8 10 11 14 17 i8 35-39 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 11 14 16 40-44 3 4 5 4 6 7 8 9 10 14 45-49 3 3 4 4 4 6 7 7 9 10 50-54 2 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 7 9 55-59 2 2 3 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 60-64 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 5 6 65-69 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 70-74 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 75+ 1 1 1 I 1 1 2 2 2 3 TOTAL 77 89 103 119 136 154 174 196 217 238 BIRTH RATE 47.3 45.9 42.2 39.1 36.8 34.7 32.1 28.9 25.6 DEATH RATE 18.9 17.0 ¶4.7 12.8 11.5 10.3 9.2 8.2 7.4 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.85 2.89 2.74 2.63 2.53 2.44 2.29 2.06 1.83 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.85 2.89 2.75 2.63 2.53 2.44 2.29 2.06 1.83 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.500 6.500 5.990 5.480 4.970 4.460 3.950 3.440 2.994 NRR 2.258 2.346 2.255 2.150 2.002 1.845 1.678 1.500 1.340 eO) - BOTH SEXES 47.46 49.50 51.72 54.11 55.94 57.86 59.85 61.92 64.07 0(l5) - BOTH SEXES 47.34 47.61 48.09 48.80 49.88 50.99 52.13 53.32 54.54 IMR - BOTH SEXES 120.0 106.4 92.8 79.5 74.2 68.9 63.6 58.3 52.9 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .2016 .1760 .1507 .1266 .1153 .1040 .0927 .0812 .0697 DEP. RATIO 88.0 91.6 94.0 96.2 91.0 83.6 78.1 73.3 67.3 61.4 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES 159 Siummry Projection for 25-Year Periods OT ER NORTH ARCA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 155 237 431 614 750 821 856 875 UALES 0-4 13 21 28 26 26 26 26 26 5-9 11 18 27 25 26 26 26 26 10-14 10 15 25 25 26 26 26 26 15-19 8 11 23 26 26 26 26 26 20-24 7 10 21 26 26 26 26 26 25-29 5 9 19 26 26 26 26 26 30-34 5 7 16 26 25 26 26 26 35-39 4 6 14 24 24 25 26 26 40-44 3 4 10 22 25 26 26 26 45-49 3 4 8 19 25 25 26 26 50-54 3 3 7 17 25 25 25 25 55-59 2 2 5 14 23 23 24 25 60-64 2 2 4 11 20 22 23 24 65-69 1 2 3 7 17 21 22 23 70-74 1 1 2 s 13 19 21 22 75+ 1 1 2 5 15 32 40 46 TOTAL 78 118 214 303 368 400 417 427 FEMALES 0-4 13 21 27 26 26 26 26 26 5-9 11 18 27 25 25 26 26 26 10-14 9 15 25 25 26 26 26 26 15-19 8 11 23 26 26 26 26 26 20-24 7 10 21 27 26 26 26 26 25-29 5 8 19 27 26 25 26 26 30-34 5 7 17 26 25 25 26 26 35-39 4 6 14 24 24 25 26 26 40-44 3 4 10 22 25 26 26 26 45-49 3 4 9 20 26 26 25 25 50-54 2 3 7 17 26 25 25 25 55-59 2 2 6 15 24 24 25 25 60-64 2 2 5 12 22 23 24 25 65-69 1 1 3 8 19 23 24 25 70-74 1 1 3 6 15 23 24 24 754 1 1 2 7 21 47 60 68 TOTAL 77 119 217 311 382 420 439 448 BIRTH RATE 46.9 33.7 20.8 15.4 13.3 12.5 12.1 DEATH RATE 16.7 10.1 6.8 7.5 9.8 10.8 11.2 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .U .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.83 2.39 1.42 .80 .36 .17 .09 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.309 4.303 2.393 2.080 2.058 2.043 2.041 etO) - BOTH SEXES 49.76 58.40 67.51 74.10 78.69 82.45 83.95 INR - BOTH SEXES 105.6 68.4 40.4 17.6 8.6 3.0 2.5 160 COUNlURM3S ECONOIESM AND 7MR1ITORDIS POIAND Projection (thousands) with NRR=I by 1990 AGE GROUP 1965 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N#F 37203 3180 36973 39770 40693 41643 42542 43366 44144 44921 MALES 0-4 1761 1536 1452 1455 1516 1S60 1546 1505 1479 1487 5-9 1655 1745 152 1441 1446 1508 1553 1541 1501 1477 10-14 1463 164 173S lS7 1434 1440 1503 1549 1538 1500 15-19 1266 1449 1630 l3 1507 1426 1433 1497 1545 1535 20-24 1415 1264 1428 1610 lm 1493 1414 1423 1489 1539 25-29 1694 1385 1239 1405 15h9 1685 1477 1402 1413 1482 30-34 1680 1661 1360 1218 1385 1570 1669 U65 1392 1406 35-39 1376 1647 1632 1337 1200 1368 1553 1654 1454 1384 40-44 903 1343 1613 1601 1314 1182 1349 1535 1637 1442 45-49 1003 64 1305 1571 1564 1286 1159 1326 1512 1616 50-54 1015 956 836 1253 1513 1511 1246 1126 1293 1479 55-59 922 947 696 784 1179 1431 1437 1191 1082 1249 60-64 713 62o 654 a11 713 1061 1323 1339 1119 1025 65-69 407 607 70S 734 702 624 958 1186 1214 1026 70-74 420 316 474 556 S8 570 516 805 1014 1055 i5+ 491 498 429 S04 630 73C 785 791 1031 1383 TOTAL 18205 18707 19117 19522 19983 2046S 20922 21335 21715 22083 FEMALES 0-4 1663 1450 1366 1371 1428 146' 1455 1416 1391 1398 5-9 1570 1649 149 1359 1363 1421 1463 1451 1413 1390 10-14 130" 1561 1641 1432 1353 1356 1418 1461 1450 1412 15-19 1223 1379 15S1 1632 1425 134T 1354 1414 1458 1449 20-24 1336 1204 1361 1535 1619 1414 1339 1347 1410 1457 25-29 1612 1313 1184 1343 1519 1605 1403 1331 1342 1408 30-34 1631 1591 1295 1168 1329 1507 1S95 1396 1326 1340 SS-39 1356 1612 1574 1281 1157 1319 1498 1587 1391 1323 40-44 917 1339 159 1559 1269 1147 1310 1489 1580 1385 45-49 1044 903 1321 1575 1541 1256 1136 1299 1479 1570 50-54 1076 1023 US 1297 1549 151S 1239 1122 1285 1465 55-59 1069 1044 994 862 1266 1S1S 1487 1216 1104 1267 60-64 933 1020 996 953 629 1222 1466 1446 1187 1081 65-69 S66 863 946 931 895 785 1162 1403 1391 1148 70-74 653 496 756 839 835 811 717 1075 1313 1314 75+ 960 1025 94 1110 1334 1486 1577 1577 1910 2431 TOTAL 1s998 19472 196S 20246 20710 21178 21619 22031 22429 22837 BIRTN RATE 16.2 14.9 14.6 14.9 14.9 14.4 13.7 13.2 13.0 DEATH RATE 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.5 RATE OF MAT. INC. .62 .49 .48 .52 .51 .46 .41 .37 .35 NET NIGRATION RATE -1.0 -.8 -.7 -.6 -.5 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 GR0flH RATE .52 .41 .41 .46 .46 .43 .38 .36 .35 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.200 2.122 2.115 2.108 2.104 2.099 2.095 2.091 2.087 NRR 1.035 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - OTH SEXES 70.85 1"46 72.30 73.33 74.32 75.36 76.46 77.62 78.85 adS) - OOTH SEXES 57.66 56.10 56.73 59.55 60.43 1.35 62.33 63.37 64.48 I - MTH SEXS 17.5 15.5 13.2 11.1 9.9 8.7 7.5 6.3 5.1 qCS) - 80TH SEXES .0216 .0191 .0163 .0137 .0123 .0109 .0095 .0082 .0068 DEP. RATIO 53.7 54.0 52.5 50.0 49.6 4.4 52.5 57.1 60.5 61.0 cOOUmES, E300NOM11S, AND TERRITORIES 161 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods POLAMN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 37203 39770 "144 4O888 364 49302 49895 50177 MALES 0-4 1761 1455 1479 1504 15S0 1507 1506 1506 5-9 1655 1441 1501 1514 1509 1506 1505 1505 10-14 1463 1517 1538 151S 1506 1504 1504 1504 15-19 1286 1723 1545 1504 1499 1501 1503 1504 20-24 1415 1610 149 1477 1492 1499 1501 1502 25-29 1694 1405 1413 1462 1491 1498 1498 1498 30-34 1680 1216 1392 1479 1497 1495 1493 1493 35-39 1376 1337 1454 1509 1496 1488 1487 1488 40-44 903 1601 167 1506 1475 1474 1480 1483 45-49 1003 1571 1512 142 1439 1460 1471 1475 50-54 1015 1253 1m 1349 1409 1447 1458 1461 55-59 922 784 1082 1296 1398 1430 1436 1438 60-64 713 811 1119 1303 1385 1394 1399 1404 65-69 407 734 1214 1381 1322 1324 1341 1354 70-74 420 558 1014 1155 1176 1216 1259 1281 75+ 491 504 1031 1744 2313 2664 2875 2970 TOTAL 18205 19522 21715 23142 23917 24407 24718 24865 FEMALES 0-4 1663 1371 1391 1413 1417 1415 1414 1414 5-9 1570 1359 1413 1423 1418 1414 1413 1413 10-14 1390 1432 1450 1428 1415 1412 1413 1413 15-19 1223 1632 1458 1416 1409 1411 1413 1413 20-24 1336 1535 1410 1394 1405 1412 1413 1413 25-29 1612 1343 1342 1386 1409 1414 1413 1412 30-34 1631 1168 1326 1406 1418 1415 1412 1411 35-39 1356 1281 1391 1440 1421 1411 1409 1410 40-44 917 1559 1S80 144S 1407 1403 1406 1409 45-49 1044 1575 1479 1392 1382 1396 1405 1407 50-54 1076 1297 1285 1317 1367 1396 1404 1404 55-59 1069 862 1104 1288 1378 1398 1399 1399 60-64 933 953 1187 1332 1398 1392 1388 1390 65-69 568 931 1391 1480 1382 1364 1370 1378 70-74 653 839 1313 1335 1300 1316 1345 1361 75+ 960 1110 1910 2851 3520 3928 4159 4264 TOTAL 18998 20248 22429 23746 24447 24896 25177 25311 BIRTH RATE 15.3 14.2 12.9 12.3 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 10.0 9.7 10.5 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -.8 -.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .44 .42 .24 .12 .08 .05 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.140 2.099 2.084 2.078 2.076 2.074 2.073 etO) - BOTH SEXES 71.55 75.46 80.18 62.81 84.25 85.32 85.73 INR OTH SEXES 15.5 6.7 4.3 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.0 162 COUNNTRIS, ECONOMIES, AND TERRIRORIES PORTUGAL Projection (thousands) with NRR=l by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 10157 10354 10552 10736 i0906 11036 11120 11181 11241 11309 MALES 0-4 367 316 330 333 339 330 318 313 318 328 5-9 414 369 317 330 332 338 329 317 313 318 10-14 442 416 370 317 329 332 338 329 317 313 15-19 437 443 416 370 316 329 331 337 328 317 20-24 430 439 444 416 368 315 327 330 336 327 25-29 378 433 440 443 413 367 314 326 329 335 30-34 334 380 433 439 440 411 365 312 325 327 35-39 304 335 380 431 436 438 409 363 311 323 40-44 266 303 333 377 428 433 435 406 360 309 45-49 273 262 298 328 372 422 428 430 402 357 50-54 272 265 255 291 321 364 414 419 422 395 55-59 256 259 254 245 281 310 352 401 408 411 60-64 232 237 241 238 231 266 295 337 385 393 65-69 176 205 211 217 217 213 246 275 316 363 70-74 152 144 170 179 188 190 188 220 248 288 75+ 167 189 202 236 270 301 323 338 377 432 TOTAL 4902 4994 5093 5190 5283 5357 5410 5453 5495 5537 FEMALES 0-4 345 298 310 313 319 310 299 295 299 308 5-9 396 347 299 311 313 318 310 298 294 299 10-14 425 398 348 299 311 313 318 309 298 294 15-19 422 427 399 349 299 310 312 318 309 298 20-24 425 427 429 400 348 299 310 312 318 309 25-29 379 430 429 430 399 348 298 309 312 317 30-34 343 382 431 430 430 398 347 298 309 311 35-39 323 344 383 431 429 428 397 346 297 308 40-44 295 323 343 382 429 427 427 396 345 296 45-49 304 293 321 341 379 426 424 425 394 344 50-54 307 300 289 317 338 375 422 421 421 391 55-59 297 300 294 284 312 333 370 417 416 417 60-64 274 287 291 286 277 306 326 364 410 410 65-69 218 258 273 279 275 268 296 317 _J5 402 70-74 207 197 237 253 261 259 254 282 304 342 75+ 297 349 381 441 505 561 599 620 664 724 TOTAL 5255 5360 5459 5546 5624 5679 5709 5727 5746 5772 BIRTH RATE 12.1 12.4 12.3 12.3 11.8 11.2 11.0 11.1 11.3 DEATH RATE 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.1 RATE OF NAT. INC. .26 .30 .31 .32 .24 .15 .11 .11 .12 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.3 .8 .4 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .38 .38 .34 .32 .24 .15 .11 .11 .12 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.565 1.565 1.565 1.655 1.741 1.824 1.903 1.978 2.051 NRR .740 .743 .745 .790 .832 .873 .912 .950 .986 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 74.10 75.45 76.73 77.94 78.66 79.40 80.17 80.96 81.79 e05) - BOTH SEXES 60.60 61.66 62.75 63.13 64.46 65.10 65.78 66.47 67.20 IMR - BOTH SEXES 14.2 11.0 8.9 7.4 6.6 5.8 5.0 4.1 3.3 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0174 .0136 .0112 .0095 .0085 .0076 .0066 .0056 .0046 DEP. RATIO 55.1 50.7 48.5 48.5 50.5 51.1 52.2 53.9 57.5 64.0 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES 163 Summary Projection for 25-Year Periods PORTUGAL AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 10157 10736 11241 11157 10655 10687 10765 10806 MALES 0-4 367 333 318 320 322 323 323 323 5-9 414 330 313 320 323 323 323 323 10-14 442 317 317 324 324 323 323 323 15-19 437 370 328 329 324 323 322 322 20-24 430 416 336 327 321 321 322 322 25-29 378 443 329 316 318 320 321 321 30-34 334 439 325 310 317 320 321 321 35-39 304 431 311 312 320 321 320 320 40-44 266 377 360 322 323 319 318 318 45-49 273 328 402 328 320 315 316 316 50-54 272 291 422 317 306 309 312 314 55-59 256 245 408 307 296 304 308 309 60-64 232 238 385 286 291 301 303 303 65-69 176 217 316 317 289 294 292 292 70-74 152 179 248 328 277 275 274 276 75+ 167 236 377 705 597 603 634 651 TOTAL 4902 5190 5495 5467 5268 5295 5334 5355 FEMALES 0-4 345 313 299 301 303 304 304 304 5-9 396 311 294 301 304 304 304 303 10-14 425 299 298 305 305 304 303 303 15-19 422 349 309 309 305 303 303 303 20-24 425 400 318 308 303 303 303 303 25-29 379 430 312 299 300 302 303 303 30-34 343 430 309 293 300 303 303 303 35-39 323 431 297 297 304 304 303 303 40-44 295 382 343 307 308 304 302 302 45-49 304 341 394 314 306 301 301 302 50-54 307 317 421 307 296 298 300 301 55-59 297 284 416 302 289 297 300 301 60-64 274 286 410 288 290 298 300 299 65-69 218 279 355 329 297 300 297 297 70-74 207 253 304 366 298 294 292 293 75+ 297 441 664 1063 880 873 911 929 TOTAL 5255 5546 5746 5690 5387 5392 5432 5451 BIRTH RATE 12.2 11.4 11.2 11.6 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 9.3 9.6 11.5 13.4 11.7 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .37 .18 -.03 -.18 .01 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.567 1.810 2.072 2.075 2.073 2.072 2.072 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 75.44 79.44 82.60 84.21 85.08 85.73 86.01 IMR - BOTH SEXES 11.3 5.8 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 164 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrIORIES QATAR Projection (thousands) wfth NRRmI by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 199 l995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 358 439 S5O 51 651 720 787 851 90f 959 MALES 0-4 28 32 36 S7 40 43 43 44 43 41 5-9 18 29 32 36 37 40 43 43 44 43 10-14 16 19 29 32 36 37 40 42 43 44 15-19 17 17 19 29 32 36 37 40 42 43 20-24 17 20 l8 20 29 32 36 37 40 42 25-29 26 21 21 18 20 29 32 35 37 39 30-34 30 29 22 22 19 20 29 32 35 37 35-39 26 33 30 23 22 19 20 29 32 35 40-44 18 27 33 30 23 22 19 20 29 31 45-49 13 19 27 33 29 22 22 l8 19 28 50-54 7 13 18 26 32 29 22 21 18 19 55-59 6 7 13 17 2s 30 27 21 21 17 60-64 2 6 6 12 16 23 29 26 20 20 65-69 2 2 5 6 10 14 21 26 24 18 70-74 1 2 2 4 5 9 12 18 23 21 75+ 1 1 2 2 4 5 9 14 22 30 TOTAL 229 276 312 346 380 411 441 468 491 510 FEMALES 0-4 26 31 34 36 38 41 41 42 41 39 5-9 17 2? 31 34 36 38 41 41 42 41 10-14 15 17 2? 31 34 36 38 41 41 42 15-19 13 16 17 2 31 34 36 38 41 41 20-24 11 14 16 17 2r 31 34 36 38 41 25-29 11 12 14 16 18 27 31 34 36 38 30-34 9 11 12 14 16 18 27 31 34 36 35-39 8 10 11 12 14 16 17 27 31 34 40-44 7 8 10 11 12 14 16 17 27 31 45-49 5 7 a 10 11 12 14 16 17 27 50-54 2 5 7 8 10 11 12 14 16 17 55-59 2 2 5 7 8 9 11 11 14 16 60-64 1 2 2 4 7 8 9 11 11 13 65-69 0 1 2 2 4 6 7 9 10 11 70-74 0 0 1 2 2 4 6 7 8 10 75+ 1 1 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 14 TOTAL 129 163 198 234 271 309 346 383 418 449 BIRTH RATE 31.7 30.0 27.3 25.9 24.7 22.8 21.2 19.2 17.1 DEATH RATE 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.8 5.1 5.6 6.0 6.4 RATE OF MAT. INC. 2.72 2.58 2.32 2.16 2.00 1.77 1.56 1.32 1.08 NET MIGRATION RATE 13.6 4.2 2.6 1.3 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 4.09 3.00 2.57 2.29 2.03 1.77 1.56 1.32 1.08 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.840 5.540 4.940 4.340 3.740 3.140 2.778 2.458 2.174 NRR 2.703 2.596 2.335 2.062 1.783 1.502 1.333 1.183 1.049 eCO) - 80TH SEXES 69.26 70.84 72.43 73.9 74.94 75.95 77.01 78.12 79.27 sCIS) - BOTH SEXES 57.34 58.33 59.49 60.71 61.45 62.24 63.06 63.93 64.84 1MR - BOTH SEXES 31.0 25.1 20.3 16.5 14.1 11.7 9.3 7.0 4.6 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0377 .0300 .0243 .0199 .0172 .0144 .0117 .0090 .0062 DEP. RATIO 53.6 57.6 64.8 62.4 61.9 62.2 63.8 65.0 63.0 58.2 COUNTIPES ESCONOMIES, AND TMtRRlDRIES 165 Swumry Projection for 25-Year PerIodf QATAR AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 200 207S 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 358 5S1 909 1152 1328 1384 1404 1413 MALES 0-4 28 37 43 43 42 42 42 42 5-9 18 36 44 43 42 42 42 42 10-14 16 32 43 42 42 42 42 42 15-19 17 29 42 41 42 42 42 42 20-24 17 20 40 40 42 42 42 42 25-29 26 18 37 42 42 42 42 42 30-34 30 22 35 43 42 42 42 42 35-39 26 23 32 42 42 41 41 42 40-44 18 30 29 41 40 41 41 41 45-49 13 33 19 38 39 41 41 41 50-54 7 26 18 35 41 41 41 41 55-59 6 17 21 33 41 41 40 40 64-64 2 12 20 29 39 39 39 39 65-69 2 6 24 25 37 36 37 36 70-74 1 4 23 15 32 34 35 36 75+ 1 2 22 31 SS 76 81 83 TOTAL 229 346 491 584 660 683 692 696 FEMALES 0-4 26 36 41 41 40 40 40 40 5-9 17 34 42 41 40 40 40 40 10-14 1S 31 41 40 40 40 40 40 15-19 13 27 41 39 40 40 40 40 20-24 11 IT 38 39 40 40 40 40 25-29 11 16 36 41 41 40 40 40 30-34 9 14 34 42 41 40 40 40 35-39 8 12 31 41 40 40 40 40 40-44 7 11 27 40 39 39 40 40 45-49 S 10 1T 38 38 40 40 40 50-S4 2 8 16 35 40 40 40 40 55.59 2 7 14 33 41 40 40 40 60-64 1 4 11 29 40 39 39 39 65-69 0 2 10 25 38 37 39 39 70-74 0 2 8 16 35 36 38 39 75+ 1 1 11 29 73 108 116 120 TOTAL 129 234 418 568 668 701 712 717 BIRTH RATE 29.5 22.S 15.9 13.2 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 4.3 5.2 6.5 7.5 10.5 11.2 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 6.2 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.22 1.79 .9f .57 .16 .06 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.397 3.148 2.088 2.062 2.060 2.0S8 2.057 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 71.01 76.18 80.56 82.99 04.35 0.37 85.78 IMR BOTH SEXES 25.2 11.7 4.0 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 166 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES ROMANIA Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 1990 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 22725 23199 23612 24115 24646 25136 25605 26073 26562 27085 MALES 0-4 882 946 895 928 940 933 923 917 921 928 5-9 1016 870 936 889 923 936 930 920 915 920 10-14 971 1007 863 932 886 921 934 929 919 914 15-19 1018 960 999 858 928 882 918 931 926 917 20-24 725 999 946 989 851 921 877 913 927 923 25-29 884 703 981 934 979 844 915 872 908 922 30-34 886 861 688 968 925 971 838 909 866 903 35-39 739 864 845 678 957 915 962 831 903 861 40-44 614 718 845 829 667 944 904 952 823 895 45-49 741 592 697 823 810 653 926 889 937 812 50-54 708 707 567 670 794 784 634 900 867 916 55-59 643 661 663 533 632 753 746 606 865 836 60-64 503 579 599 603 487 582 697 696 569 817 65-69 248 429 497 516 523 428 516 624 629 519 70-74 309 194 338 395 413 425 353 432 531 543 75+ 341 367 303 366 454 521 573 559 617 750 TOTAL 11230 11460 11663 11912 12171 12413 12647 12881 13123 13375 FEMALES 0-4 840 901 852 883 894 887 876 869 872 878 5-9 968 829 893 848 880 891 885 874 868 871 10-14 925 960 824 890 846 879 890 884 873 867 15-19 976 916 954 821 887 844 877 889 883 872 20-24 689 959 905 948 817 885 842 876 888 882 25-29 852 671 946 898 943 814 882 841 874 886 30-34 865 835 660 939 893 939 811 880 838 872 35-39 728 850 824 654 933 888 935 808 877 a3 40-44 620 715 839 816 648 926 882 930 804 873 45-49 762 608 704 827 806 641 917 874 922 798 50-54 728 742 593 689 811 791 631 903 863 912 55-59 684 700 716 574 668 789 772 617 886 849 60-64 605 644 663 681 548 640 760 746 599 863 65-69 340 549 s5 609 630 511 601 718 711 575 70-74 422 288 470 508 532 557 458 546 661 662 75+ 491 572 518 620 739 840 938 937 1020 1214 TOTAL 11495 11739 11950 12204 12475 12722 12958 13192 13439 13710 BIRTH RATE 16.6 15.4 15.6 15.4 14.9 14.4 14.0 13.8 13.6 DEATH RATE 11.1 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.1 9.7 RATE OF NAT. INC. .55 .44 .46 .45 .40 .37 .36 .37 .39 NET NIGRATION RATE -1.4 -.9 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .41 .35 .42 .44 .39 .37 .36 .37 .39 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.313 2.147 2.134 2.120 2.113 2.106 2.099 2.092 2.085 NRR 1.081 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 etO) - BOTH SEXES 69.20 69.82 70.76 71.87 72.95 74.08 75.28 76.54 77.87 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 56.64 57.46 58.03 58.79 59.64 60.54 61.50 62.51 63.59 INR - BOTH SEXES 25.0 26.9 22.8 18.9 16.3 13.7 11.1 8.5 5.9 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0299 .0322 .0273 .0228 .0198 .0167 .0137 .0107 .0077 DEP. RATIO 51.8 51.8 51.0 53.3 54.2 53.2 53.1 54.6 56.0 55.3 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 167 sum_ry Projection for 25-Year Perfods ROMANIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL NF 22725 24115 26562 28669 29660 30298 30706 30905 MALES 0-4 882 928 921 924 925 926 926 925 5-9 1016 889 915 924 926 925 925 925 10-14 971 932 919 927 926 925 925 925 15-19 1018 858 926 928 925 924 924 924 20-24 725 989 927 922 921 922 922 923 25-29 884 934 908 910 916 919 920 920 30-34 886 968 866 901 914 917 918 918 35-39 739 678 903 901 913 914 915 915 40-44 61( 829 823 903 909 909 911 911 45-49 741 823 937 897 898 901 904 906 50-54 708 670 867 865 877 888 894 897 55-59 643 533 865 805 851 872 8a0 883 60-64 503 603 569 806 826 850 860 864 65-69 248 516 629 690 790 815 827 833 70-74 309 395 531 708 728 757 776 787 75+ 341 366 617 1141 1418 1620 1756 1821 TOTAL 11230 11912 13123 14150 14661 14983 15182 15277 FEMALES 0-4 840 883 872 873 875 875 875 875 5-9 968 848 868 874 875 875 874 874 10-14 925 890 873 877 876 875 874 874 15-19 976 821 883 879 875 874 874 874 20-24 689 948 888 875 873 873 874 874 25-29 852 898 874 868 871 873 873 874 30-34 865 939 838 863 871 873 873 873 35-39 728 654 877 d66 872 873 872 872 40-44 620 816 804 873 872 870 871 871 45-49 762 827 922 874 866 866 869 870 50-54 728 689 863 854 854 861 866 868 55-59 684 574 886 810 843 857 863 865 60-64 605 681 599 833 837 852 858 860 65-69 340 609 711 744 830 842 848 852 70-74 422 508 661 816 808 820 832 840 75+ 491 620 1020 1739 2103 2357 2528 2613 TOTAL 11495 12204 13439 14519 14999 15315 15525 15629 BIRTH RATE 15.9 14.5 13.1 12.4 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 11.1 10.6 10.1 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -.9 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .40 .39 .31 .14 .09 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.189 2.106 2.081 2.073 2.069 2.067 2.067 e(O) BOTH SEXES 69.93 74.19 79.37 82.33 83.96 85.17 85.65 INR - BOTH SEXES 24.9 13.8 4.9 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 168 COUNThRIS, ECONOMULS% AND TERRIrORIES RUSSIAN FEDR ATION Projectlon (thouAds) with NRRaI by 1995 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 143858 146255 151626 155240 158858 162214 165512 168473 171235 173759 MALES 0-4 6001 6207 5562 5336 S512 5745 5839 5752 5624 5581 5-9 5647 5958 6173 5542 5320 5497 5731 5827 5742 5616 10-14 5259 S618 593S 6159 5531 5310 5489 5724 S821 5738 15-19 5011 521S S582 5910 6138 S514 5296 5476 5712 5811 20-24 4852 4930 5152 S541 5875 6104 5486 5272 S4S3 5691 25-29 6240 4747 48S2 5106 5502 S836 6066 S45S 5244 5427 30-34 6337 6106 4668 4804 5067 5464 5798 6030 5425 S217 35-39 5699 6188 5996 4612 4760 5025 5422 5758 5992 5395 40-44 3697 5535 6050 S599 4553 4704 4971 5369 5708 5946 45-49 3688 3555 5365 5901 5782 4470 4625 4894 5295 5637 50-54 4361 349S 3395 51S9 5712 5610 4347 4509 4783 5187 55-59 3642 4033 3261 3193 4893 5440 5365 4174 4347 4630 60-64 3172 3243 3630 2965 2934 4527 5068 5032 3942 4133 65-69 1339 2666 2762 3132 259S 259S 4047 4579 4594 3636 70-74 990 1029 2082 2193 2S33 2134 2170 3439 3953 4030 75+ 1299 1239 1244 2014 2586 3146 3224 3317 4452 5721 TOTAL 67235 69763 71712 73466 75294 77122 78944 80606 82087 83395 FEMALES 0-4 5779 5958 5333 5111 5275 S496 S586 5501 5378 5335 5-9 5475 5746 5934 5321 5101 5266 5488 5579 5496 5374 10-14 5111 545S 5732 5927 5316 5097 S263 5486 5S77 5495 15-19 4747 5088 S439 s725 5921 5311 5093 5259 5483 5575 20-24 4698 4710 5063 5430 5?17 5913 5304 oso 5254 5478 25-29 6054 4653 4680 5053 5421 5707 5904 5297 5081 5247 30-34 6256 6008 462S 4669 5042 5410 5696 5893 5287 5072 35-39 5740 6208 5974 4610 4655 5028 5396 5683 5880 5277 40-44 3805 5687 6165 S944 4590 4637 5009 5377 5665 5863 45-49 4100 3756 m30 6116 5904 4561 4610 4983 5351 640 50-54 5032 4023 3699 5S61 6052 584 4519 4570 4943 5312 55-59 4581 4891 3931 3630 5473 S962 5765 4462 4516 4890 60-64 5013 4381 4719 3818 3543 5352 5841 5658 4387 4449 65-69 3077 4656 4132 4501 3674 3420 5183 S67S 5S15 4290 70-74 2586 2705 4208 3809 4214 3460 3239 4936 5435 5312 75+ 4568 4565 4850 6S50 7667 8626 8671 8421 98 117S4 TOTAL 76623 78492 80114 81774 83564 85092 86568 87867 89148 90364 BIRTH RATE 17.0 14.8 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.1 13.6 13.0 12.7 DEATH RATE 10.5 9.8 9.4 9.3 10.0 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.8 RATE OF NAT. INC. .65 .50 .44 .46 .42 .40 .35 .33 .29 MET NIURATION RATE -.5 -.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE .60 .48 .4 .46 .42 .40 .35 .33 .29 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.400 2.176 2.093 2.086 2.082 2.077 2.073 2.068 2.064 NRR 1.140 1.036 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 70.12 72.16 74.00 75.68 76.53 77.42 78.3S 79.32 80.34 *t1S) - BOTH SEXES S7.02 58.84 60.45 61.93 62.65 63.39 64.17 64.99 65.86 INR - BOTH SEXES 1t 8 16.0 13.3 11.0 9.7 8.3 6.9 5.5 4.1 qCS) - BOTH SEXES .0226 .0193 .0162 .0137 .0121 .0105 .0089 .0073 .0057 DEP. RATIO 48.7 53.7 SS.1 5s.8 53.4 52.4 56.8 61.6 65.0 64.1 COUNIRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 169 Stmry Projection for 25-Year PerIo&d RUSSIAN FEDERATION AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL NF 143858 155240 171235 180074 185334 188328 190129 190907 KALES 0-4 6001 5336 5624 5692 56"9 5680 5676 5676 5-9 5647 5542 5742 S715 S681 5670 5670 5671 10-14 5259 6159 5821 S9 5f2 5664 5669 5671 15-19 5011 5910 5712 5617 5639 5660 5668 5669 20-24 4852 5541 5453 5540 S633 5659 5661 5660 25-29 6240 5106 524 556 5647 S651 5646 5644 30-34 6337 480 S525 5663 5655 5630 5625 5627 35-39 5699 4612 5992 S715 5612 5593 5602 5611 40-44 3697 5899 5708 5575 5510 5549 5580 5593 45-49 3688 5901 5295 5286 5410 5516 5555 5563 50-54 4361 5159 478 SO5S 5370 S481 5504 5507 55-59 3642 3193 4347 5070 5364 5406 5410 5418 60-64 3172 2965 3942 5403 5264 5240 5264 5292 65-69 1339 3132 4594 4859 4918 4960 5055 5112 70-74 990 2193 3953 4105 4345 4589 4766 4840 75+ 1299 2014 4452 6834 9014 10241 10916 11234 TOTAL 67235 73466 807 87355 90413 92186 93268 93789 FEUALES 0-4 5779 5111 5378 5436 5431 5421 5417 5416 5-9 5475 5321 5496 S 5425 5413 5413 5414 10-14 5111 5927 5577 5443 S 5408 5412 541( 15-19 4747 5725 54S 5377 5390 5408 5414 5414 20-24 4698 5430 5254 5326 5394 5415 5415 5413 25-29 6054 5053 5081 5363 5425 5422 5413 5410 30-34 6256 4669 5287 5477 S448 5415 S405 5405 35-39 5740 4610 S180 5550 5424 r393 5396 5402 40-44 3805 5944 S66 5444 5350 5369 5391 5399 45-49 4100 6116 5351 5202 5288 5365 5392 5394 50-54 5032 5561 4943 5006 5307 5381 5387 5382 55-59 4581 3630 4516 5172 5392 5384 5363 5359 60-64 5013 3818 4387 5691 5422 5329 5317 5328 65-69 3077 4501 S51S 5397 5260 5212 5257 5291 70-74 2586 3809 5435 4966 49 5080 5194 5238 75+ 4568 6550 98" 12408 14625 15726 16274 16527 TOTAL 76623 81774 89148 92720 94922 96142 96860 97208 BIRTH RATE 15.2 13.7 12.6 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.9 9.8 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.5 MET NIGRATION RATE -.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROTH RATE .51 .39 .20 .12 .06 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.212 2.077 2.062 2.059 2.057 2.056 2.056 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 72.13 77.50 81.43 83.57 84.71 85.56 85.89 INR - BOTH SEXES 16.2 8.3 3.6 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 170 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES; AND TERRrITRIES SAUDI ARABIA ProJectlon (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2040 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 12395 14870 17895 21335 25198 29412 33927 38590 43176 4 M 1 MALES 0-4 1149 1355 1664 1911 2166 2398 2592 2712 2720 2756 5-9 949 1136 1343 1651 1898 2152 2385 2580 2703 2714 10-14 725 947 1133 1340 1646 1892 2146 2380 2576 2699 15-19 593 n5 945 1130 1335 1640 1885 2139 2373 2569 20-24 545 602 730 945 1126 1327 1630 1875 2128 2362 25-29 630 559 611 733 942 1117 1318 1619 1863 2116 30-34 609 639 567 614 731 935 1109 1309 1609 1853 35-39 442 614 642 567 611 724 927 1101 1299 1599 40-44 311 442 610 636 561 604 716 917 1089 1287 45-49 231 307 434 598 624 550 592 703 902 1073 50-54 177 223 296 419 578 604 533 575 684 879 55-59 134 166 209 279 395 547 574 508 550 657 60-64 99 120 151 190 254 363 505 532 474 516 65-69 68 85 103 130 166 223 320 449 476 427 70-74 46 53 67 82 105 135 184 266 376 403 75+ 41 49 58 73 94 123 161 219 315 456 TOTAL 6751 8022 9563 11297 13234 15334 17577 19884 22139 24365 FEMALES 0-4 1109 1311 1606 1842 2084 2303 2484 2595 2598 2627 5-9 920 1099 1301 1597 1832 2073 2294 2476 2588 2593 10-14 700 919 1097 1300 1594 1828 2070 2290 2473 2586 15-19 561 699 917 1095 1297 1590 1824 2066 2287 2470 20-24 454 561 698 916 1093 1293 1585 1820 2061 2282 25-29 371 455 562 698 913 1088 1288 1580 1814 2056 30-34 318 371 454 560 695 908 1083 1282 1574 1809 35-39 271 317 369 452 557 690 903 1077 1276 1568 40-44 222 268 314 365 448 552 684 896 1070 1269 45-49 182 218 264 309 360 442 545 676 886 1060 50-54 149 176 212 257 302 352 433 535 665 873 55-59 119 142 169 204 248 m 342 421 521 650 60-64 96 110 132 159 193 236 278 327 405 503 65-69 69 85 98 119 144 177 217 259 306 382 70-74 51 57 70 82 101 124 153 191 231 277 75+ 50 60 69 84 103 130 167 216 281 361 TOTAL 5644 6848 8333 10038 11965 14078 16350 18706 21037 23366 BIRTH RATE 42.3 42.7 40.5 38.3 35.9 33.2 30.0 26.5 23.9 DEATH RATE 7.9 7.1 6.1 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.9 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.44 3.57 3.44 3.29 3.09 2.86 2.58 2.25 2.01 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.9 1.3 .8 .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.64 3.70 3.52 3.33 3.09 2.86 2.58 2.25 2.01 TOTAL FERTILITY 7.170 6.870 6.270 5.670 5.070 4.470 3.870 3.270 2.861 NRR 3.102 3.037 2.823 2.594 2.341 2.083 1.820 1.552 1.370 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 63.40 65.15 66.98 68.84 70.12 71.44 72.81 74.24 75.73 etIS) - BOTH SEXES 55.10 55.83 56.78 57.85 58.56 59.30 60.07 60.89 61.75 IMR - BOTH SEXES 70.9 61.3 51.6 42.6 35.9 29.1 22.4 15.6 8.9 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0877 .0738 .0614 .0504 .0426 .0348 .0269 .0190 .0111 DEP. RATIO 90.2 92.7 92.7 91.8 90.0 85.5 80.9 75.7 69.1 62.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 171 Summary Projection for 25-Year Perfods SADI)I ARABIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 12395 21335 43176 63872 79593 86422 88022 88748 MALES 0-4 1149 1911 2no 2672 2642 2647 2652 2653 5-9 949 1651 2703 2583 2629 2648 2653 2652 10-14 725 1340 2576 2567 2646 2659 2655 2652 15-19 593 1130 2373 2686 2679 2663 2652 2649 20-24 545 945 2128 2733 2689 2650 264l 2643 25-29 630 733 1863 2683 2648 2623 2630 2637 30-34 609 614 1609 2657 2552 2603 2626 2632 35-39 442 567 1299 2520 2526 2611 2629 2627 40-44 311 636 1089 2307 2629 2633 2624 Z615 45-49 231 598 902 2053 2658 2629 2599 2594 50-54 177 419 684 1769 2578 2564 2551 2563 55-59 134 279 550 1486 2501 2431 2496 2526 60-64 99 190 474 1147 2297 2345 2450 2478 65-69 68 130 476 895 2000 2345 2387 2397 70-74 46 82 376 659 1639 2222 2255 2255 75+ 41 73 315 782 2435 4494 4925 5153 TOTAL 6751 11297 22139 32198 39749 42765 43424 43726 FEMALES 0-4 1109 1842 2598 2546 2518 2523 2528 2529 5-9 920 1597 2588 2462 2506 2525 2530 2529 10-14 700 1300 2473 2448 2522 2535 2532 2529 15-19 561 1095 2287 2563 2555 2540 2530 2527 20-24 454 916 2061 2615 2569 2531 2523 2525 25-29 371 698 1814 2580 2536 2511 2518 2524 30-34 318 560 1574 2568 2451 2498 2520 2525 35-39 271 452 1276 2448 2432 2511 2527 2526 40-44 222 365 1070 2255 2540 2539 2530 2521 45-49 182 309 886 2022 2582 2547 2516 2511 50-54 149 257 665 1762 2531 2504 2488 2500 55-59 119 204 521 1506 2495 2404 2465 2492 60-64 96 159 405 1193 2344 2363 2461 2487 65-69 69 119 306 964 2112 2434 2465 2470 70-74 51 82 231 749 1822 2415 2433 2425 75+ 50 84 281 991 3330 6277 7034 7403 TOTAL 5644 10038 21037 31673 39845 43657 44598 45023 BIRTH RATE 41.8 32.0 19.4 14.4 12.4 11.9 11.8 DEATH RATE 6.9 4.6 4.1 5.7 9.2 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE 1.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTN RATE 3.62 2.82 1.57 .88 .33 .07 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.713 4.248 2.310 2.067 2.062 2.059 2.058 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 65.39 71.87 77.68 81.28 83.30 84.84 85.44 INR - BOTH SEXES 60.3 28.5 6.9 3.6 2.8 2.2 2.1 172 COUNIRES, ECONOMIES, AND 1ERRFFORIES SLOVENIA ProJectian (thousads) with NRRal by 20 AGE GROUP 1985 990 199 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL I+F 1925 1954 i196 2012 20.5 2072 2089 2098 2103 2109 MALES 0-4 78 62 62 62 63 64 62 61 61 62 5-9 77 78 62 42 61 63 62 61 61 10-14 75 77 78 62 61 61 63 64 62 61 15-19 73 75 77 78 61 61 61 63 63 62 20-24 74 73 74 76 7T 61 61 61 63 63 25-29 79 73 72 74 76 7r 61 61 61 63 30-34 75 78 73 71 73 75 76 60 60 60 35-39 69 74 78 72 71 73 75 76 60 60 40-44 66 68 73 TY 71 70 72 74 75 60 45-49 61 64 6 72 76 70 69 71 74 75 50-54 58 58 62 65 70 74 69 68 70 72 55-59 48 54 55 59 62 67 71 67 66 68 60-64 33 43 49 51 55 5S 64 68 4 63 65-69 29 29 38 s 6 0 53 59 63 60 70-74 20 23 23 31 37 39 43 47 52 57 75+ 28 27 29 32 40 s0 s5 67 76 88 TOTAL 945 957 971 96s 1002 1015 1024 1028 1031 1034 FEMALES 0-4 72 se se se 59 60 58 5 S7 se 5-9 71 72 se Se so 59 60 se s7 s5 10-14 70 71r n 5S Se Se 59 60 58 57 15-19 70 To 71 72 S8 se 57 59 60 Se 20-24 72 70 TO 71 72 se 58 S7 59 59 25-29 74 72 70 70 71 72 S8 58 s5 59 30-34 70 74 n 70 70 71 72 58 5T s5 35-39 65 70 74 72 70 70 71 71 57 57 40-44 62 65 70 n 71 69 69 70 71 57 45-49 60 62 64 69 n 71 69 69 70 71 50-54 60 59 61 63 68 72 70 68 68 70 55-59 59 59 58 60 62 67 71 69 68 68 60*64 44 57 S7 56 58 61 66 70 68 67 65-69 44 41 54 54 S4 S6 s9 64 68 67 70-74 32 39 37 so 51 51 53 57 62 66 75+ 51 57 66 n 90 l05 114 123 133 146 TOTAL 980 997 1011 1026 1043 lOS7 1065 1069 1072 1074 BIRTH RATE 12.5 12.3 12.1 12.2 12.1 11.7 11.3 11.3 11.5 DEATH RATE 9.5 9.S 9.0 9.0 9.4 10.1 10.5 10.7 11.0 RATE OF HAT. INC. .30 .28 .31 .33 .26 .16 .09 .06 .05 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .30 .28 .31 .33 .26 .16 .09 .06 .05 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.700 1.700 1.700 1.76S 1.828 1.889 1.949 2.006 2.062 NRR .804 .806 .808 .811 .s72 .903 .932 .961 .989 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 72.29 74.17 75.04 77.35 78.10 78.89 79.71 80.56 81.45 W15) - BOTH SEXES 58.61 60.29 61.81 63.20 63.87 64.58 65.31 66.08 66.88 IMR - BOTH SEXES 12.1 9.9 6.3 7.0 6.3 S.6 4.9 4.2 3.5 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0150 .0124 .0105 .0090 .0082 .0074 .0065 .0057 .0049 DEP. RATIO S1.0 48.1 47.2 46.8 49.7 52.8 55.8 59.0 62.7 66.0 aCUNTIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES 173 Smaory Projection for 25-Year Perfods SLOVENIA AGE GROUP 1965 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL NF 1925 2012 2103 2082 2033 2044 2059 2067 HALES 0-4 78 62 61 62 62 62 62 62 5-9 77 62 61 62 62 62 62 62 10-14 75 62 62 6p 62 62 62 62 15-19 73 78 63 65 62 62 62 62 20-24 74 76 63 62 62 62 62 62 25-29 79 74 61 60 61 62 62 62 30-34 75 71 60 60 61 62 62 61 35-39 69 72 60 61 62 61 61 61 40-U 66 77 75 62 62 61 61 61 45-49 61 72 74 61 60 60 61 61 50-54 58 65 70 58 58 59 60 60 55-59 48 59 66 sT S5 59 59 59 60-64 33 51 64 55 ST 58 58 58 65-69 29 44 63 66 55 56 56 56 70-74 20 31 52 59 51 52 52 53 75. 28 32 76 112 110 114 121 124 TOTAL 945 985 1031 1023 1005 1013 1022 1026 FEPALES 0-4 72 Ss 57 S8 S8 58 S8 58 5-9 71 58 ST Se 58 58 58 58 10-14 70 S8 58 Ss 58 S8 58 58 15-19 70 72 60 59 S5 58 58 58 20-24 72 71 59 S8 58 58 58 58 25-29 74 70 57 5T S8 58 58 58 30-34 70 70 57 57 S8 58 58 58 35-39 65 n S5 5s 58 58 58 58 40-66 62 73 71 59 se S8 58 58 45-49 60 69 70 59 58 S7 58 58 50-54 60 63 68 S7 56 57 58 58 55-59 59 60 68 56 56 ST ST ST 6-6404 56 68 56 ST ST 57 5T 65-69 4 54 68 68 ST 57 57 57 70-74 32 50 62 65 56 55 56 56 75+ 51 73 133 177 167 168 174 177 TOTAL 980 1026 1072 1059 1028 1031 1038 1041 BIRTH RATE 12.3 11.7 11.S 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 9.3 9.9 11.9 12.7 11.6 11.4 11.5 MET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTN RATE .29 .18 -.04 -.10 .02 .03 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.702 1.852 2.078 2-080 2.078 2.077 2.077 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 74.12 78.94 82.32 84.04 U4.98 85.67 85.95 INR - BOTH SEXES 10.1 5.6 3.1 2.S 2.2 2.0 2.0 174 COUNThRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRiTORIES SPAMI Projection (thousands) with NRR-1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 38505 38959 39391 39764 40139 40366 40422 40401 40402 40474 MALES 0-4 1294 1084 1145 1154 1185 1147 1095 1075 1096 1137 5-9 1599 1292 1082 1143 1152 1183 1146 1093 1074 1095 10-14 1696 1598 1290 1080 1141 1151 1182 1145 1093 1073 15-19 1696 1692 1594 1287 1078 1139 1149 1181 1144 1092 20-24 1634 1690 1684 1587 1282 1074 1135 1146 1177 1140 25-29 1444 1627 1680 1675 1579 1276 1069 1130 1141 1172 30-34 1268 1438 1618 1671 1666 1571 1270 1064 1125 1136 35-39 1224 1261 1429 1608 1661 1657 1562 1263 1059 1121 40-44 1093 1213 1249 1416 1594 1648 1644 1551 1255 1052 45-49 1018 1076 1195 1231 1397 1574 1628 1626 1535 1243 50-54 1137 992 1049 1166 1204 1367 1543 1598 1598 1510 55-59 1046 1091 953 1010 1125 1164 1325 1498 1555 1558 60-64 896 978 1023 897 955 1069 1110 1268 1439 1499 65-69 647 805 883 929 821 880 991 1035 1191 1360 70-74 528 544 682 756 805 718 778 886 936 1088 75+ 692 762 817 963 1127 1280 1312 1383 1536 1708 TOTAL 18911 19145 19374 19575 19774 19899 19940 19942 19952 19985 FEMALES 0-4 1213 1016 1073 1081 1110 1074 1024 1006 1025 1064 5-9 1506 1212 1015 1071 1079 1108 1073 1023 1005 1025 10-14 1598 1506 1211 1014 1070 1079 1108 1072 1023 1005 15-19 1613 1597 1504 1210 1013 1069 1078 1107 1072 1023 20-24 1583 1612 1595 1502 1208 1012 10o8 1077 1106 1071 25-29 1425 1581 1608 1592 1499 1206 1010 1067 1075 1105 30-34 1252 1423 1577 1605 1588 1496 1204 1008 1065 1074 35-39 1222 1249 1418 1572 1600 1583 1492 1201 1006 1063 40-44 1094 1216 1242 1411 1565 1593 1577 1487 1197 1003 45-49 1046 1084 1206 1232 1401 1555 1583 1569 1479 1192 50-54 1183 1032 1070 1191 1219 1386 1540 1569 1556 1468 55-59 1118 1159 1012 1051 1171 1200 1367 1520 1551 1539 O-64 1002 1082 1124 984 1024 1144 117r 1341 1494 1528 65-69 826 950 1030 1074 944 987 1106 1140 1306 1461 70-74 738 754 872 952 1001 886 932 1052 1091 1258 75. 1175 1341 1461 1649 1873 2089 2146 2221 2399 2613 TOTAL 19593 19814 20017 20189 20365 20468 20482 20458 20450 20489 BIRTH RATE 11.0 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.1 10.6 10.4 10.6 10.9 DEATH RATE 8.7 9.2 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.5 10.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. .22 .22 .19 .19 .11 .03 -.01 .00 .04 NET MIGRATION RATE .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .23 .22 .19 .19 .11 .03 -.01 .00 .04 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.460 1.460 1.460 1.573 1.679 1.780 1.876 1.966 2.051 NRR .693 .694 .695 .750 .802 .851 .898 .942 .984 oeO) - BOTH SEXES 75.92 76.44 77.14 77.95 78.66 79.40 80.17 80.96 81.79 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 61.96 62.39 62.98 63.70 64.35 65.02 65.71 66.44 67.19 IMR - BOTH SEXES 9.0 8.1 7.0 6.2 5.6 5.0 4.4 3.9 3.3 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0113 .0102 .0090 .0080 .0074 .0067 .0060 .0053 .0046 DEP. RATIO 54.1 49.3 46.8 47.8 49.6 50.7 52.4 53.8 57.6 64.6 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 175 Sumary Projection for 25-Year Periods SPAIN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 38505 39764 40402 39227 36799 36855 37127 37267 MALES 0-4 1294 1154 1096 1104 1113 1117 1117 1117 5-9 1599 1143 1074 1105 1117 1118 1116 1116 10-14 1696 1080 1093 1122 1122 1118 1116 1115 15-19 1696 1287 1144 1142 1122 1115 1114 1115 20-24 1634 1587 1177 1132 1110 1110 1112 1113 25-29 1444 1675 1141 1087 1097 1106 1110 1111 30-34 1268 1671 1125 1062 1095 1108 1109 1108 35-39 1224 1608 1059 1077 1108 1110 1106 1105 40-44 1093 1416 1255 1121 1123 1105 1100 1100 45-49 1018 1231 1535 1148 1108 1089 1090 1094 50-54 1137 1166 1598 1100 1055 1067 1079 1084 55-59 1046 1010 1555 1066 1014 1051 1067 1070 60-64 896 897 1439 975 1004 1042 1049 1047 65-69 647 929 1191 1105 1008 1021 1012 1011 70-74 528 756 936 1259 971 955 949 955 75+ 692 963 1536 2694 2086 2085 2196 2252 TOTAL 18911 19575 19952 19300 18253 18316 18444 18513 FEM.LES 0-4 1213 1081 1025 1033 1041 1045 1045 1045 5-9 1506 1071 1005 1034 1045 1046 1045 1044 10-14 1598 1014 1023 1050 1050 1046 1044 1044 15-19 1613 1210 1072 1069 1050 1044 1043 1044 20-24 1583 1502 1106 1062 1041 1040 1043 1044 25-29 1425 1592 1075 1023 1031 1040 1043 1044 30-34 1252 1605 1065 1001 1031 1043 1044 1043 35-39 1222 1572 1006 1018 1046 1048 1044 1042 40-44 1094 1411 1197 1064 1064 1046 1041 1040 45-49 1046 1232 1479 1095 1054 1036 1036 1039 50-54 1183 1191 1556 1060 1012 1023 1033 1037 55-59 1118 1051 1551 1041 986 1019 1033 1035 60-64 1002 984 1494 974 995 1028 1033 1031 65-69 826 1074 1306 1141 1028 1036 1024 1021 70-74 738 952 1091 1373 1038 1013 1002 1006 75. 1175 1649 2399 3891 3033 2988 3131 3195 TOTAL 19593 20189 20450 19927 18546 18539 18684 18753 BIRTH RATE 11.3 10.8 10.9 11.5 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 9.2 10.2 12.0 14.1 11.7 11.4 11.5 NET IIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .21 .06 -.12 -.26 .01 .03 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.457 1.759 2.076 2.080 2.079 2.077 2.077 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 76.51 79.43 82.60 84.20 85.08 85.73 86.00 IMR - BOTH SEXES 8.0 5.0 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 176 COUNnuEs, ECONOMIS, AND MRUMRrORES SWEDEN Projection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1915 1990 109S 2a00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL NOF M050 am59 6Sl g0m4 9gm5 907 9173 9266 9350 9393 HALES 0-4 220 2 n11 32 2S 27 279 289 295 292 5-9 249 22 am, 314 304 285 274 279 289 294 10-14 215 255 231 3 315 303 285 274 279 289 15-19 29S 290 26 232 269 314 303 285 274 278 20-24 302 307 294 261 234 28S 313 302 284 273 25-29 286 351 312 296 262 232 287 312 301 283 30-34 29? 29 51e 351 299 261 231 286 311 300 35-39 336 304 301 32M 315 297 259 230 284 309 40-U 319 339 304 301 516 313 295 258 229 283 45-49 242 318 336 302 296 315 310 292 255 227 50-54 214 236 312 330 2in 292 310 305 288 252 55-59 216 207 2n0 so2 320 286 285 302 297 281 60-64 23 206 196 219 2 307 277 274 291 288 65-69 213 212 IN 161, 204 269 288 261 259 277 70-74 161 In2 la 15 160 182 243 261 239 239 75+ 252 274 291 sue 305 302 322 392 461 485 TOTAL 4148 4252 4355 4435 4492 4524 4561 4602 4636 4651 FENALES 0-4 207 267 294 26 27 259 263 273 278 276 5-9 234 214 27 297 20T 270 259 263 273 278 10-14 266 240 217 27 296 287 269 259 263 273 15-19 20 275 U 4 20 24 297 287 269 259 263 20-24 25 m 282 24 222 274 297 286 269 259 25-29 27 29 300 2 251 221 274 297 286 269 30-34 211 282 305 304 285 250 221 273 296 286 35-39 519 2s 26 307 305 286 250 221 273 296 40-44 296 322 2a 26 30w 303 287 249 220 272 45-49 232 296 321 21 285 305 302 285 248 219 50-54 213 230 295 518 286 262 303 300 283 246 55-59 225 209 226 29 313 282 279 299 297 281 60-64 245 216 204 21 25 307 277 274 295 293 65-69 235 234 209 196 214 276 299 270 268 290 70-74 215 215 216 196 16 203 264 287 260 260 75. 395 423 ur 471 474 467 483 558 644 682 TOTAL 4202 43 440 4486 4542 4573 4613 4664 4714 4742 HIRTN RATE 12.9 14.0 13.3 12.4 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.4 12.2 DEATH tATE 11.6 11.4 11.0 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.2 10.6 11.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. .11 .26 .23 .18 .14 .17 .20 .18 .09 NET NIGRATION RATE 5.6 2.1 1.4 .7 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .49 .47 .57 .25 .14 .17 .20 .18 .09 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.900 2.0L0 2.079 2.078 2.0n 2.076 2.075 2.074 2.073 NRR .9"1 .997 .996 .999 .9P9 .999 .999 1.000 1.000 *CO) - OTH SEXIS r.o5 7.90 76.75 79.62 10.20 10.81 81.43 82.07 82.73 *0(15) - 90TH SINS 62.74 63.57 64.36 65.17 65.72 66.29 66.87 67.48 68.10 I1R - OTH 7EXES 5.7 5.5 4.9 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.9 q(S) - 30TH SEX$ .007S .0075 .0066 .0060 .0057 .0053 .0049 .0046 .0042 DEP. RATIO s4.7 s54.7 56.1 5.0 5r.5 59.1 62.5 65.5 68.7 72.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMMIS, AND TERRrrORIES 177 Summary ProJection for 25-Year Perfods SWMEEN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 8350 8924 9350 9381 9496 9565 9615 9642 MALES 0-4 220 302 295 288 287 287 287 287 5-9 249 314 289 285 286 287 287 287 10-14 285 288 279 283 287 287 287 287 15-19 298 232 274 286 288 288 287 287 20-24 302 261 284 291 289 287 286 286 25-29 288 298 301 293 287 285 286 286 30-34 297 315 311 286 283 284 285 285 35-39 336 320 284 275 280 284 285 285 40-44 319 301 229 269 281 284 284 284 45-49 242 302 255 278 285 283 282 282 50-54 214 330 28 291 284 279 278 279 55-59 218 302 297 295 274 272 274 275 60-64 233 219 291 264 257 264 268 270 65-69 213 181 259 204 243 257 261 261 70-74 181 165 239 213 237 247 247 247 75+ 252 305 461 535 552 559 571 581 TOTAL 4148 4435 4636 4637 4700 4733 4755 4768 FEMALES 0-4 207 286 278 272 271 271 271 271 5-9 234 297 273 269 270 271 271 271 10-14 268 273 263 268 271 271 271 271 15-19 280 220 259 270 m 272 271 271 20-24 285 248 269 275 273 272 271 271 25-29 271 287 286 278 272 271 271 271 30-34 281 304 296 272 269 270 271 271 35-39 319 307 273 262 267 270 271 271 40-44 298 286 220 257 269 271 271 271 45-49 232 288 248 267 273 272 270 270 50-54 213 318 283 282 275 270 269 269 55-59 225 291 297 291 269 266 267 268 60-64 245 221 295 265 257 263 266 268 65-69 233 196 268 211 250 262 266 266 70-74 215 196 260 232 25S 264 263 263 75+ 395 471 644 771 785 798 817 830 TOTAL 4202 4488 4714 4744 4796 4833 4859 4874 BIRTH RATE 13.4 12.2 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 11.4 10.4 11.8 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.4 .1, .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .44 .19 .01 .05 .03 .02 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.016 2.076 2.072 2.069 2.068 2.067 2.067 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 77.91 80.84 83.38 84.66 85.35 85.87 86.08 IMR - BOTH SEXES 5.4 3.8 2.7 2,3 2.1 2.0 1.9 178 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES SWniZEPLA ProJection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 6470 6712 6880 7011 7095 7125 7142 7152 7148 7118 MALES 0-4 171 215 220 210 197 191 195 201 204 203 5-9 186 178 218 222 211 197 191 194 201 204 10-14 207 191 180 219 222 211 197 191 194 201 15-19 248 212 193 181 219 222 211 197 190 194 20-24 264 257 215 195 181 219 221 210 196 190 25-29 248 275 260 217 195 180 218 220 209 195 30-34 242 258 278 262 217 194 180 217 219 208 35-39 258 249 259 279 261 216 193 179 216 219 40-44 245 261 249 259 277 260 215 192 178 215 45-49 204 245 259 247 256 274 257 213 190 176 50-54 190 7o0 240 254 242 251 269 253 209 188 55-59 170 183 194 232 247 235 245 263 247 205 60-64 153 160 173 184 222 236 226 235 253 239 65-69 120 138 146 160 171 207 221 213 223 241 70-74 107 103 120 128 142 153 187 201 195 205 75+ 154 164 169 188 210 237 264 312 358 384 TOTAL 3165 3288 3373 3435 3473 3484 3489 3490 3484 3466 F;EMALES 0-4 161 204 208 199 186 180 184 190 193 192 5-9 176 168 206 210 200 186 180 184 190 193 10-14 195 182 170 208 210 199 186 180 184 190 15-19 235 202 184 172 208 210 199 186 180 184 20-24 255 247 206 187 173 208 210 199 186 180 25-29 245 269 252 209 189 173 208 210 199 186 30-34 239 255 272 254 211 188 173 208 210 199 35-39 250 246 258 274 255 210 188 173 207 209 40-44 235 253 246 258 273 254 210 188 172 207 45-49 201 236 252 246 257 272 253 209 187 172 50-54 192 200 234 251 244 255 270 251 208 186 55-59 183 189 197 231 248 241 253 268 249 206 60-64 174 179 185 194 227 244 238 250 265 247 65-69 142 167 173 180 189 222 239 234 245 261 70-74 142 132 156 165 173 182 215 232 227 239 75+ 276 295 305 339 378 413 446 501 562 601 TOTAL 3305 3423 3507 3576 3622 3641 3653 3662 3665 3651 BIRTH RATE 12.6 12.6 11.8 10.9 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.1 DEATH RATE 9.9 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.7 10.2 10.7 11.3 12.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. .27 .32 .26 .18 .08 .05 .03 -.01 -.09 NET MIGRATION RATE 4.6 1.8 1.2 .6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .73 .50 .38 .24 .08 .05 .03 -.01 -.09 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.650 1.750 1.797 1.842 1.887 1.930 1.972 2.014 2.055 NRR .790 .838 .862 .885 .907 .929 .951 .971 .992 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 77.26 78.41 79.47 80.42 80.95 81.49 82.05 82.62 83.21 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 63.08 64.24 65.20 66.07 66.54 67.03 67.53 68.04 68.56 IMR - BOTH SEXES 6.8 6.8 6.0 5.3 4.8 4.3 3.8 3.3 2.8 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0088 .0088 .0078 .0070 .0064 .0058 .0052 .0046 .0040 DEP. RATIO 46.0 46.7 49.3 52.9 54.1 56.7 61.0 65.6 71.3 77.8 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 179 Sunmary Projection for 25-Year Periods SMITZERLAND AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 6470 7011 7148 6803 6659 6666 6694 6711 MALES 0-4 171 210 204 200 200 200 200 200 5-9 186 222 201 198 199 200 200 200 10-14 207 219 194 197 199 200 200 200 15-19 248 181 190 199 200 200 200 200 20-24 264 195 196 202 201 200 199 199 25-29 248 217 209 203 199 198 199 199 30-34 242 262 219 199 196 197 198 198 35-39 258 279 216 192 195 197 198 198 40-44 245 259 178 187 196 198 197 197 45-49 204 247 190 192 19'3 197 196 196 50-54 190 254 209 202 197 194 194 194 55-59 170 232 247 209 191 189 1iO 191 60-64 153 184 253 200 179 183 187 187 65-69 120 160 223 158 169 179 181 182 70-74 107 128 195 159 164 172 172 172 75+ 154 188 358 425 395 388 397 404 TOTAL 3165 3435 3484 3321 3278 3291 3307 3317 FEMALES 0-4 161 199 193 189 188 189 189 189 5-9 176 210 190 187 188 189 189 189 10-14 195 208 184 186 188 189 189 189 15-19 235 172 180 188 189 189 189 189 20-24 255 187 186 192 190 189 189 189 25-29 245 209 199 193 189 188 188 189 30-34 239 254 210 189 187 188 188 188 35-39 250 274 207 183 186 188 188 188 40-44 235 258 172 179 187 189 189 188 45-49 201 246 187 185 191 189 188 188 50-54 192 251 208 197 191 188 187 187 55-59 183 231 249 206 187 185 186 187 60-64 174 194 265 203 180 183 186 186 65-69 142 180 245 166 174 183 185 185 70-74 142 165 227 177 177 184 184 183 75+ 276 339 562 661 587 566 574 580 TOTAL 3305 3576 3665 3482 3381 3375 3387 3394 BIRTH RATE 12.3 10.9 11.1 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 9.5 10.2 13.1 12.5 11.7 11.5 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 2.5 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .54 .08 -.20 -.09 .00 .02 .01 IOTAL FERTILITY 1.728 1.928 2.067 2.068 2.068 2.067 2.067 e(O) BOTH SEXES 78.40 81.51 83.77 84.89 85.50 85.95 86.13 IR R BOTH SEXES 6.5 4.2 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 180 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES AND TERRIT)RIES SYRIAN ARAB REP. Projection (thousands) wlth NRR-1 by 2035 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N4F 10348 12360 14860 17675 20807 24184 2mo 31266 34797 38170 MALES 0-4 1023 1215 1465 1623 1781 1921 2026 2053 2072 2023 5-9 836 995 1191 1445 1609 1768 1910 2017 2047 2068 10-14 671 825 986 183 1439 1603 1763 1906 2013 2045 15-19 554 661 816 977 1176 1432 1596 1756 1900 2009 20-24 515 539 647 804 968 1167 1422 1587 1748 1892 25-29 404 497 523 635 795 959 1157 1412 1577 1738 30-34 290 388 482 513 627 787 951 1148 1402 1568 35-39 210 278 376 472 505 620 779 942 1140 1394 40-44 159 201 269 367 46 498 612 770 933 1130 45-49 137 152 193 261 359 455 489 601 758 920 50-54 128 130 145 186 252 348 442 476 586 '41 55-59 108 120 123 138 177 241 333 424 457 565 60-64 81 99 111 113 127 164 224 311 398 431 65-69 54 71 87 98 100 114 147 202 282 363 70-74 37 45 59 72 81 84 95 125 173 243 75+ 45 49 57 72 89 106 118 134 167 225 TOTAL 5250 6264 7530 8958 10549 12266 14064 15864 17653 19355 FEMALES 0-4 990 1158 1395 1545 1693 1824 1920 1944 1958 1909 5-9 804 966 1139 1380 1535 1685 1816 1914 1939 1955 10-14 659 795 958 1132 1375 1531 1681 1813 1911 1937 15-19 526 651 787 952 1128 1371 1527 1677 1810 1909 20-24 48Q 515 641 779 947 1123 1366 1522 1673 1807 25-29 365 468 504 633 774 942 1118 1361 1518 1670 30-34 276 355 458 497 628 769 937 1113 1357 1514 35-39 208 269 348 452 492 623 764 931 1108 1352 40-46 170 202 262 342 446 487 617 758 925 1102 45-49 150 165 197 257 336 440 481 610 750 918 50-54 134 145 160 192 251 329 431 473 601 741 55-59 108 128 130 154 185 243 320 420 462 589 60-64 78 101 120 132 146 176 233 307 406 448 65-69 56 71 92 110 121 135 164 218 290 386 70-74 42 48 60 79 95 105 120 147 198 266 75+ 52 59 67 82 105 133 161 192 236 313 TOTAL 5098 6096 7330 8717 10258 11918 13657 15402 17144 18816 BIRTH RATE 44.5 44.2 40.5 37.2 34.2 31.1 27.6 24.7 21.7 DEATH RATE 7.3 6.3 5.3 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.72 3.79 3.52 3.27 3.01 2.73 2.41 2.14 1.85 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.6 -1.0 -.5 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.55 3.68 3.47 3.26 3.01 2.73 2.41 2.14 1.85 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.660 6,360 5.760 5.160 4.560 3.960 3.360 2.921 2.539 NRR 2.8U1 2.821 2.609 2.381 2.11 1.853 1.584 1.386 1.213 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 65.01 66.84 68.69 70.53 71.72 72.95 74.23 75.56 76.94 eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 55.99 56.55 57.38 S8.38 59.19 60.02 60.89 61.80 62.75 INR - BOTH SEXES 48.0 38.9 31.5 25.3 21.6 17.9 14.2 10.5 6.8 qtS) - BOTH SEXES .0708 .0547 .0419 .0321 .0275 .0228 .0181 .0135 .0088 DEP. RATIO 103.7 103.8 103.4 99.6 92.9 83.6 75.5 68.1 61.8 56.2 COUNm , BOODWOMIS DU ANDI U U RiwD ES 181 Suianry Projection for 25-Year Perfods SYIA ARM PE. AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 10348 17675 34797 50094 6029 6476 65779 66234 MALES 0-4 1023 1623 2072 20 1992 1904 1965 1906 5-9 836 1445 2017 1999 1974 1979 19U 1965 10-14 671 1183 2013 19256 1965 1966 1986 15-19 554 977 1900 1912 1978 199.0 196 1984 20-24 515 804 1746 aoo9 '4 1902 1962 1960 25-29 404 635 157? 2047 2011 1978 197 1973 30-34 290 513 1402 2015 197B 1956 1963 1969 35-39 210 472 1140 1973 169? 1940 1960 1966 40-44 159 367 933 1U51 16s 1945 1961 1960 45-49 137 261 756 1669 1956 1961 1954 1947 50-54 128 186 S6u 1501 197 1950 1925 1923 55-59 108 138 457 1302 1902 1o5 1877 1890 60-64 81 113 396 1016 1S7 1766 1823 1850 65-69 54 98 282 79 1617 1676 1768 1794 70-74 37 72 173 59 1367 1647 1688 1700 75+ 45 72 167 62 2166 353 376 3897 TOTAL 5250 8958 ll63 2529 30459 32166 3259r 32788 FEMALES 0-4 990 1545 1958 1915 1881 1873 1674 1875 5-9 804 1380 1939 l 18" 1869 1874 1875 10-14 659 1132 1911 I161 1656 1672 1676 1876 15-19 526 952 1610 1806 169 1880 1878 1875 20-24 480 779 1673 1902 1606 1864 1875 1673 25-29 365 633 1SiS 1947. 1906 1676 1670 1871 30-34 276 497 1357 1926 1679 lS9 1866 1871 35-39 208 452 1108 1694 187 l8 1867 16n 40-44 170 342 92S 1716 1791 1858 1873 1871 45-49 1SO 257 750 . 1645 1679 1SS 1674 1867 50-54 134 192 601 1479 1913 Im 1860 1857 55-59 108 154 462 1304 1675 1616 1835 1846 60-64 78 132 406 1044 1821 1760 1613 1838 65-69 56 110 290 644 185 1722 1S07 1830 70-74 42 79 196 647 14W9 1766 1802 1809 75+ 52 82 236 953 2947 4915 5339 5539 TOTAL 5098 8717 171"44 2479 30370 32597 33182 33445 BIRTH RATE 42.8 30.1 16.2 13.6 12.3 11.9 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.2 3.6 3.8 6.2 9.5 11.2 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.0 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.57 2.71 1.46 .7. .25 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 6.197 3.796 2.187 2.07M 2.0n 2.069 2.068 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 67.07 73.33 76.67 61.67 3.67 85.02 85.56 INR - BOTH SEXES 38.7 17.7 5.5 3.3 2.6 2.2 2.1 182 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES,. AND TERRITORIES TAJIKISTAN ProJection (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2020 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 4580 5302 6046 6874 7718 8577 9412 10169 10903 11641 MALES 0-4 411 493 479 488 502 519 515 482 479 494 5-9 318 400 485 476 485 500 517 513 481 478 10-14 267 312 396 483 475 484 499 516 512 480 15-19 237 261 308 395 482 473 483 498 515 511 20-24 205 227 254 306 393 479 471 480 495 513 25-29 198 192 218 253 304 390 476 468 478 493 30-34 146 186 184 216 251 302 388 473 466 475 35-39 106 137 180 182 214 248 300 385 470 463 40-44 64 100 132 177 180 211 245 296 381 466 45-49 72 60 95 129 173 176 208 241 292 376 50-54 74 68 57 92 124 167 171 202 235 285 55-59 61 69 63 54 87 118 160 164 194 227 60-64 50 56 63 58 49 80 110 149 154 183 65-69 24 44 49 55 51 44 72 99 135 140 70-74 15 19 35 39 45 42 36 60 84 116 75+ 28 22 22 34 44 54 58 56 75 107 TOTAL 2276 2644 3021 3438 3860 4290 4707 5083 5445 5807 FEMALES 0-4 399 472 459 467 481 497 493 461 458 472 5-9 310 389 465 456 465 479 495 491 460 457 10-14 261 305 386 464 456 464 479 495 491 460 15-19 236 255 301 385 463 455 464 478 495 491 20-24 213 225 248 300 384 462 454 463 478 494 25-29 199 199 216 247 299 383 461 453 462 477 30-34 147 189 193 216 246 298 382 460 452 461 35-39 109 140 184 192 215 245 297 381 459 451 40-44 61 104 137 182 190 213 244 296 379 457 45-49 64 58 101 135 181 189 212 242 294 377 50-54 75 62 57 100 133 178 186 209 239 291 55-59 66 72 60 55 98 130 175 183 206 236 60-64 57 63 69 58 53 94 126 170 178 201 65-69 38 53 59 64 55 50 90 121 163 172 70-74 26 33 46 52 58 50 46 83 112 153 75+ 42 40 47 63 81 97 101 100 132 186 TOTAL 2304 2657 3025 3436 3858 4287 4705 5086 5458 5834 BIRTH RATE 41.6 34.9 30.8 27.9 25.7 22.9 19.6 18.0 17.3 DEATH RATE 6.8 5.8 5.1 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.48 2.91 2.57 2.32 2.11 1.86 1.55 1.39 1.31 NET MIGRATION RATE -5.5 -2.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.93 2.63 2.57 2.31 2.11 1.86 1.55 1.39 1.31 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.100 4.800 4.200 3.600 3.066 2.611 2.224 2.086 2.073 NRR 2.316 2.196 1.943 1.682 1.442 1.236 1.060 1.000 1.000 e(0) - BOTH SEXES 68.44 69.59 70.90 72.28 73.36 74.48 75.65 76.85 78.11 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 58.12 58.73 59.41 60.21 60.87 61.55 62.27 63.02 63.81 IMR - BOTH SEXES 47.3 41.7 35.2 29.0 24.4 19.7 15.1 10.4 5.8 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0597 .0522 .0437 .0358 .0302 .0245 .0189 .0132 .0076 DEP. RATIO 87.7 94.9 93.8 84.3 70.8 61W9 56.5 52.0 48.9 46.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 183 Sumary Projectfon for 25-Year Periods TAJ ISTAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL *+F 4580 6874 10903 14171 15908 16322 16547 16654 MALES 0-4 411 488 479 492 496 497 496 496 5-9 318 476 481 497 498 496 496 496 10-14 267 483 512 503 498 496 495 496 15-19 237 395 515 502 495 494 495 495 20-24 205 306 495 491 490 693 494 495 25-29 198 253 478 473 488 493 494 493 30-34 146 216 466 474 491 493 492 492 35-39 106 182 670 502 495 492 490 490 40-44 64 177 381 502 492 487 487 488 45-49 72 129 292 479 478 479 484 486 50-54 74 92 235 455 455 473 480 481 55-59 61 54 194 432 447 469 473 474 60-64 50 58 154 419 460 461 462 463 65-69 24 55 135 318 438 440 442 446 70-74 15 39 84 219 388 402 413 421 75+ 28 34 75 280 722 856 940 976 TOTAL 2276 3438 5445 7038 7831 8021 8134 8188 FEMALES 0-4 399 467 458 470 474 474 474 473 5-9 310 456 460 474 475 474 473 473 10-14 261 464 491 481 476 473 473 473 15-19 236 385 495 480 473 472 473 473 20-24 213 300 478 471 469 472 473 473 25-29 199 247 462 456 469 473 473 473 30-34 147 216 452 458 473 474 473 473 35-39 109 192 459 487 478 474 472 472 40-44 61 182 379 490 477 471 470 471 45-49 64 135 294 471 466 466 469 471 50-54 75 100 239 453 449 464 469 470 55-59 66 55 206 438 448 466 469 469 60-64 57 58 178 437 472 467 466 465 65-69 38 64 163 353 467 461 459 461 70-74 26 52 112 262 437 443 448 454 75+ 42 63 132 452 1075 1278 1378 1422 TOTAL 2304 3436 5458 7133 8076 8301 8413 8466 BIRTH RATE 35.3 22.3 1S.5 12.8 12.0 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.8 4.3 5.2 8.2 11.0 11.3 11.4 NET NIGRATION RATE -2.5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.71 1.85 1.05 .46 .10 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.690 2.624 2.069 2.062 2.059 2.057 2.056 eCO) BOTH SEXES 69.76 74.73 79.64 82.50 84.06 85.23 85.70 INR - BOTH SEXES 41.5 19.9 4.8 3.0 2.5 2.1 2.0 184 COUNTRES, ECONOMIES,AAND TERRrTORIES TU ISIA Projection (thousands) with NRR-1 by 2010 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 7261 8060 8910 9771 10585 11325 12053 12795 13523 14208 MALES 0-4 542 541 S68 S61 543 517 523 544 552 548 5-9 490 532 534 563 558 540 515 522 543 551 10-14 442 486 529 532 562 556 539 514 521 543 15-19 415 438 483 527 530 560 555 538 513 520 20-24 374 406 430 480 524 527 557 552 536 511 25-29 318 362 397 427 477 521 524 554 549 533 30-34 234 307 354 394 425 474 518 521 551 547 35-39 146 226 300 351 391 422 470 514 518 548 40-44 119 141 221 297 347 387 417 466 510 514 45-49 137 115 136 216 291 341 380 411 460 503 50-54 126 131 110 132 210 283 332 371 402 450 55-59 105 119 124 104 125 201 271 319 358 388 60-64 80 96 108 114 96 117 187 255 301 339 65-69 61 69 83 95 101 86 105 169 232 276 70-74 49 49 55 67 78 84 72 89 146 202 75+ 42 54 60 68 82 99 115 116 130 187 TOTAL 3681 4072 4492 4927 5339 5714 6082 6456 6820 7159 FEMALES 0-4 514 522 547 540 522 495 501 520 526 521 5 9 465 505 516 544 537 520 494 499 519 525 10-14 423 462 S02 514 543 537 519 493 499 518 15-19 396 420 459 501 513 541 535 518 493 498 20-24 354 391 415 456 499 511 540 534 517 492 25-29 305 347 385 412 454 497 509 538 533 516 30-34 241 298 342 382 409 451 494 507 536 531 35-39 165 236 294 338 379 407 448 491 505 534 40-44 133 161 231 289 334 375 403 445 488 502 45-49 147 129 1S7 226 285 329 370 398 440 484 50-54 130 142 125 152 221 278 323 363 392 435 55-59 105 123 135 119 147 213 270 314 355 384 60-64 76 97 115 126 113 139 203 259 302 344 65-69 55 67 86 103 114 103 128 190 243 287 70-74 39 45 56 72 87 99 90 114 171 223 75+ 33 45 55 69 90 116 143 155 184 256 TOTAL 3580 3989 4418 4844 5246 5612 5971 6339 6702 7050 BIRTH RATE 29.5. 27.6 24.5 21.6 19.0 17.9 17.4 16.6 15.5 DEATH RATE 7.1 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.24 2.10 1.85 1.60 1.35 1.25 1.20 1.11 .99 NET MIGRATION RATE -1.5 -1.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.09 2.00 1.85 1.60 1.35 1.24 1.19 1.11 .99 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.000 3.310 2.903 2.546 2.232 2.118 2.107 2.095 2.084 NRR 1.758 1.496 1.336 1.189 1.048 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 65.69 67.40 69.16 70.94 72.09 73.30 74.56 75.88 77.27 eCiS) - BOTH SEXES 55.85 56.51 57.45 58.59 59.38 60.22 61.11 62.05 63.04 INR - BOTH SEXES 50.0 40.7 33.1 26.7 22.6 18.6 14.6 10.5 6.5 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0651 .0512 .0404 .0319 .0272 .0225 .0178 .0131 .0084 DEP. RATIO 76.9 72.1 67.5 61.7 56.4 49.6 45.1 44.3 46.1 48.4 COUN7RIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRInORIES 18S Summry Projectfan for 25-Year Perfods TUNISIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 7261 9771 13523 16203 17291 17692 17938 18062 MALES 0-4 542 561 552 542 539 539 539 539 5-9 490 563 543 537 537 538 539 539 10-14 442 532 521 534 538 539 539 539 15-19 415 527 513 537 540 539 538 538 20-24 374 480 536 544 541 538 537 537 25-29 318 427 549 S46 537 535 535 536 30-34 234 394 551 535 531 532 534 535 35-39 146 351 S18 511 526 531 533 533 40-44 119 297 510 500 527 531 532 531 45-49 137 216 460 519 530 529 528 528 50-54 126 132 402 525 526 521 521 522 55-59 105 104 358 514 506 507 511 514 60-64 80 114 301 465 470 490 500 504 65-69 61 95 232 431 439 473 484 487 70-74 49 67 146 352 424 448 457 460 75+ 42 68 130 519 873 964 1028 1063 TOTAL 3681 4927 6820 8109 8584 8757 8855 8904 FEMALES 0-4 514 540 526 516 513 513 514 514 5-9 465 S44 519 511 512 513 514 514 10-14 423 514 499 508 513 514 514 514 15-19 396 501 493 511 515 514 514 513 23-24 354 456 517 519 516 514 513 513 25-29 305 412 533 523 514 512 512 513 30-34 241 382 536 515 509 511 512 513 35-39 165 338 505 494 505 511 512 513 40-44 133 289 488 486 507 512 512 512 45-49 147 226 440 508 513 512 511 511 50-54 130 152 392 519 514 508 508 509 55-59 105 119 355 515 501 500 504 507 60-64 76 126 302 475 475 492 501 504 65-69 55 103 243 444 458 487 498 501 70-74 39 72 171 378 462 482 490 493 75+ 33 69 184 672 1181 1342 1455 1516 TOTAL 3580 4844 6702 8094 8707 8936 9083 9158 BIRTH RATE 27.0 18.3 14.1 12.5 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.5 5.5 7.0 10.0 11.2 11.3 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -.8 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 1.98 1.30 .72 .26 .09 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.330 2.208 2.077 2.066 2.062 2.059 2.058 etO) - BOTH SEXES 67.53 73.51 78.87 81.98 83.73 85.06 85.59 INR - BOTH SEXES 41.2 18.6 5.3 3.3 2.6 2.2 2.0 18S COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrTORIES TURKEY Projection (thousands) with NRR1 by 2010 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 50306 56098 62027 67704 72901 77507 82016 86610 91065 95147 MALES 0-4 3261 3719 3845 3761 3578 3395 3469 3626 3673 3620 5-9 2958 3208 3671 3805 3731 3554 3377 3455 3615 3665 10-14 3026 2945 3196 3660 3795 3723 3547 3371 3450 3611 15-19 2839 3009 293l 3184 3648 3784 3712 3537 3362 3442 20-24 2487 2813 2988 2914 3168 3630 3766 3695 3521 3348 25-29 2174 2458 2788 2966 2898 3150 3610 3745 3675 3503 30-34 172 2146 2433 2765 2946 2878 3130 3588 3723 3654 35-39 1405 1699 2118 2406 2739 2920 2855 3106 3563 3700 40-44 1157 1377 1670 2086 2374 2705 2886 2824 3075 3530 45-49 1063 1125 1343 1631 2043 2328 2655 2837 2779 3031 50-54 1065 1021 1083 1295 1578 1979 2260 2582 2764 2713 55-59 862 1003 963 1023 1228 1500 1888 2162 2477 2660 60-64 561 787 917 883 943 1136 1394 1762 2026 2332 65-69 326 488 687 804 779 837 1014 1251 1591 1839 70-74 316 261 392 556 659 644 697 853 1061 1360 750 306 356 336 418 596 774 864 957 1144 1435 TOTAL 25528 28415 31359 34159 36703 38937 41124 43351 45501 47444 FEMALES 0-4 3237 3569 3685 3602 3423 3246 3315 3463 3505 3453 5-9 2889 3189 3527 3652 3576 3403 3231 3304 3454 3500 10-14 2925 2880 3181 3519 3645 3571 3398 3227 3300 3452 15-19 2673 2916 2872 3174 3512 3639 3565 3394 3223 3297 20-24 2421 2661 2904 2863 3166 3504 3631 3558 3387 3218 25-29 1983 2407 2648 2893 2854 3156 3495 3622 3550 3381 30-34 1656 1969 2393 2636 2882 2844 3146 3484 3612 3541 35-39 1317 1642 1955 2379 2622 2868 2831 3133 3471 3600 40-44 1118 1303 1626 1939 2361 2604 2850 2814 3116 3454 45-49 1058 1100 1284 1605 1917 2336 2578 2824 2790 3091 50-54 949 1034 1078 1260 1578 1886 2301 2542 2786 2756 55-59 840 918 1002 1047 1227 1539 1842 2251 2491 2734 60-64 521 797 873 957 1004 1180 1484 1781 2181 2419 65-69 386 476 733 809 893 941 1111 1403 1692 2081 70-74 351 329 410 639 715 796 847 1008 1284 1561 75+ 454 493 496 572 822 1056 1267 1452 1720 2164 TOTAL 24778 27682 30668 33544 36198 38570 40892 43259 45564 47703 BIRTH RATE 29.6 27.2 24.0 20.8 18.3 17.5 17.2 16.4 15.3 DEATH RATE 7.8 7.1 6.4 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 RATE OF HAT. INC. 2.18 2.01 1.75 1.48 1.23 1.13 1.09 1.00 .88 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.18 2.01 1.75 1.48 1.23 1.13 1.09 1.00 .88 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.725 3.313 2.911 2.558 2.248 2.135 2.116 2.098 2.080 NRR 1.634 1.480 1.322 1.177 1.044 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 65.58 67.26 69.02 70.77 71.95 73.16 74.42 75.72 77.07 eC15) - BOTH SEXES 57.06 57.83 58.67 59.61 60.20 60.82 61.47 62.15 62.87 [KR - BOTH SEXES 65.0 55.9 46.7 38.5 32.1 25.8 19.4 13.0 6.7 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0844 .0716 .0590 .0479 .0401 .0323 .0244 .0165 .0086 DEP. RATIO 68.4 64.1 63.8 61.6 56.1 50.3 46.8 46.2 47.9 50.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES 187 Sumnary Projection for 25-Year rdriods TURKEY AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 50306 67704 91065 107287 114485 117134 118782 119612 MALES 0-4 3261 3761 3673 3590 3568 3566 3569 3570 5-9 2958 3805 3615 3548 3555 3564 3568 3568 10-14 3026 3660 3450 3516 3558 3569 3569 3567 15-19 2839 3184 3362 3534 3575 3572 3567 3565 20-24 2487 2914 3521 3594 3583 3564 3557 3558 25-29 2174 2966 3675 3626 3559 3543 3544 3548 30-34 1725 2765 3723 3558 3508 3521 3535 3540 35-39 1405 2406 3563 3379 3462 3512 3529 3532 40-44 1157 2086 3075 3273 3462 3514 3520 3518 45-49 1063 1631 2779 3401 3498 3504 3496 3495 50-54 1065 1295 2764 3496 3489 3449 3447 3455 55-59 862 1023 2477 3450 3356 3344 3379 3402 60-64 5Si 883 2026 3166 3090 3220 3299 3330 65-69 326 804 1591 2555 2853 3097 3191 3219 70-74 316 556 1061 2070 2742 2938 3013 3038 75+ 306 418 1144 3367 5614 6264 6726 6982 TOTAL 25528 34159 45501 53123 56472 57743 58509 58886 FEMALES 0-4 3237 3602 i. 3423 3401 3400 3402 3403 5-9 2889 3652 3454 3384 3389 3398 3402 3402 10-14 2925 3519 3300 3355 3393 3403 tO3 3402 15-19 2673 3174 3223 3375 3410 3408 i B3 3401 20-24 21,21 2863 3387 3441 3424 3406 33 9 3399 25-29 !983 2893 3550 3485 3412 3393 3394 3397 30-34 1656 2636 3612 3432 3371 3380 3392 3397 35-39 1317 2379 3471 3272 3336 3379 3394 3396 40-44 1118 1939 3116 3185 3348 3392 3395 3392 45-49 1058 1605 2790 3332 3402 3398 3387 3383 50-54 949 1260 2786 3463 3427 3373 3365 3371 55-59 8f0 1047 2491 3479 3346 3313 3338 3357 60-64 521 957 2181 3260 3i51 3252 3318 3343 65-69 386 809 1692 2858 3011 3223 3301 3320 70-74 351 639 1284 2431 3052 3208 3258 3272 75+ 454 572 1720 4969 8140 9064 9721 10092 TOTAL 247Z8 33544 45564 54165 58013 59391 60273 60726 BIRTH RATE 26.7 17.9 14.0 12.6 12.1 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 7.1 6.2 7.5 10.0 11.2 11.3 11.4 MET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .O .0 .0 GROWTH RATF 1,98 1.19 .66 .26 .09 .06 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.284 2.220 2.074 2.065 2.061 2.059 2.058 etO) - BOTH SEXES 67.40 73.35 78.73 81.95 83.73 85.06 85.58 IMR - BOTH SEXES 55.9 25.7 5.4 3.3 2.6 2.2 2.1 188 COUNIRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TEIRRiORIES TUmRKMIENSTAN ProJectfon (thousands) with NRRx1 bY 2015 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N+F 3244 3669 4067 4479 4894 5308 5702 6082 6453 6804 MALES 0-4 261 303 273 263 269 274 269 268 270 269 5-9 215 253 297 270 261 267 272 267 267 269 10-14 188 211 250 295 269 26W 266 272 266 266 15-19 173 184 208 249 294 268 259 265 271 266 20-24 149 166 180 205 246 291 265 257 263 269 25-29 145 140 160 177 203 244 288 263 255 262 30-34 114 138 135 158 175 201 241 286 261 254 35-39 84 108 133 133 156 172 198 239 283 259 40-44 48 79 V04 130 130 153 170 195 236 280 45-49 50 45 75 100 126 127 149 166 192 232 50-54 52 47 42 72 96 121 22 144 161 186 55-59 43 48 43 40 67 90 114 115 137 154 60-64 34 38 43 39 36 61 82 105 107 128 65-69 16 29 32 36 33 31 53 72 93 95 70-74 10 12 22 25 28 26 25 43 59 77 75+ 16 14 14 21 27 32 34 34 47 69 TOTAL 1598 1813 2012 2214 2415 2617 2807 2990 3168 3335 FEMALES 0-4 254 293 264 254 259 264 259 258 260 259 5-9 211 247 287 261 252 258 263 258 258 260 10-14 186 207 245 286 261 252 257 263 258 257 15-19 164 182 204 244 286 260 251 257 262 258 20-24 152 157 178 204 243 285 260 251 256 262 25-29 151 144 153 178 203 243 284 259 250 256 30-34 118 144 141 153 177 203 242 284 259 250 35-39 87 114 142 140 152 176 202 241 283 258 40-44 49 84 111 140 139 151 175 201 240 281 45-49 50 47 82 110 139 138 150 174 199 238 50-54 53 48 46 81 108 137 136 148 172 197 55-59 47 51 47 45 79 106 134 133 145 169 60-64 43 44 48 44 43 76 102 130 129 141 65-69 28 39 40 45 42 41 72 97 124 124 70-74 21 24 34 35 40 38 37 66 90 115 75+ 30 30 34 45 55 65 70 73 101 144 TOTAL 1646 1856 2055 2265 2479 2692 2895 3092 3285 3469 BIRTH RATE 37.0 29.6 25.5 23.5 21.9 19.7 18.3 17.2 16.1 DEATH RATE 8.0 6.9 6.2 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.90 2.27 1.93 1.77 1.63 1.43 1.29 1.18 1.06 NET MIGRATION RATE -4.4 -2.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.46 2.06 1.93 1.77 1.63 1.43 1.29 1.18 1.06 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.350 3.787 3.225 2.846 2.511 2.216 2.108 2.092 2.075 NRR 1.941 1.706 1.474 1.318 1.173 1.043 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 64.76 66.38 68.08 69.80 71.02 72.28 73.59 74.94 76.33 eCIS) - BOTH SEXES 55.39 56.59 57.56 58.49 59.24 60.01 60.81 61.65 62.52 IMR - BOTH SEXES 53.8 49.8 43.2 36.2 31.1 25.9 20.7 15.5 10.4 qC5) - BOTH SEXES .0711 .0648 .0549 .0446 .0383 .0320 .0256 .0193 .0129 DEP. RATIO 79.5 82.8 72.8 69.6 58.0 51.6 49.1 47.9 48.0 47.9 COUNTRES, ECONOMIES, AND T1ERRIORIES 189 Sunary Projectfon for 25-Year Periods TUP TKMENSTAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 3244 4479 6453 7920 8612 8854 9005 9077 MALES 0-4 261 263 270 270 V7 271 271 271 5-9 215 270 267 270 271 271 271 271 10-14 186 295 266 269 271 271 271 271 15-19 173 249 271 268 270 270 271 271 20-24 149 205 263 266 269 270 270 270 25-29 145 177 255 265 268 269 269 269 30-34 114 158 261 262 266 268 268 269 35-39 84 133 283 260 264 267 268 268 40-44 48 130 236 263 262 265 266 267 45-49 50 100 192 253 258 263 264 265 50-54 52 72 161 241 254 259 261 262 55-59 43 40 137 240 245 253 256 258 60-64 34 39 107 247 235 244 250 252 65-69 16 36 93 190 225 232 240 243 70-74 10 25 5n 135 198 214 224 229 75+ 16 21 47 170 366 443 496 522 TOTAL 1598 2214 3168 3869 4193 4329 4417 4457 FEMALES 0-4 254 254 260 259 259 259 259 259 5-9 211 261 258 259 259 259 258 258 10-14 186 286 258 259 259 259 258 258 15-19 164 244 262 256 259 258 258 258 20-24 152 204 256 258 258 258 258 258 25-29 151 178 250 259 258 258 258 258 30-36 118 153 259 256 258 258 258 258 35-39 87 140 283 256 257 258 258 258 40-44 49 140 240 260 257 257 257 258 45-49 50 110 199 253 256 256 257 257 50-54 53 81 172 245 255 255 256 256 55-59 47 45 145 250 250 254 255 255 60-64 43 44 129 268 247 251 253 254 65-69 28 45 124 222 247 248 251 252 70-74 21 35 90 176 233 242 246 249 75+ 30 45 101 315 610 696 747 m TOTAL 1646 2265 3285 4052 4419 4525 4589 4620 BIRTH RATE 30.3 19.9 14.7 12.7 12.2 11.9 11.7 DEATH RATE 6.9 5.5 6.6 9.4 11.1 11.2 11.4 NET MIGRATION RATE -2.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.15 1.46 .82 .33 .11 .O7 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.761 2.323 2.071 2.063 2.060 2.057 2.057 tCO) - BOTH SEXES 66.53 72.51 78.13 81.58 83.51 84.96 85.52 IMR - BOTH SEXES 49.2 26.0 7.7 3.5 2.7 2.2 2.1 190 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES UKRAINE Projectfon (thousands) with NERRt by 1990 AGE GR0UP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL N4F 50917 51860 52854 53754 54614 55307 55988 56621 57306 58047 MALES 0-4 1914 1882 1877 1863 1875 1889 1892 1885 1877 1875 5-9 1860 1913 1881 1872 15ss 1870 1886 1889 1882 1874 10-14 1816 1860 1913 1878 1869 1855 1868 1883 1887 1881 15-19 1789 1812 1857 1906 1871 1863 1851 1864 1880 1884 20-24 1667 1782 1806 1844 1895 1861 1853 1842 1856 1873 25-29 1949 1659 1774 1791 1830 1882 1849 1843 1832 1847 30-34 1904 1936 1651 1758 1777 1817 1869 1838 1832 1823 35-39 1808 1885 1919 1634 1742 1761 1803 1856 1826 1822 40-44 1282 1780 1859 1892 1613 1722 1743 1786 1840 1812 45-49 1489 1251 1739 1819 1854 1583 1693 1716 1761 1817 50-54 1708 1427 1203 1676 1757 1797 1539 1650 1677 1ns 55-59 1303 1596 1339 1132 1583 1668 1714 1475 1589 1623 60-64 1262 1174 1446 1218 1035 1458 1549 1605 1392 1512 65-69 657 1076 1008 1250 1063 914 1302 1399 1465 1285 70-74 416 512 847 805 1017 879 767 1110 1211 1287 75+ 674 574 587 862 1022 1262 1325 1279 1543 1845 TOTAL 23498 24121 24707 25198 25661 26082 26502 26917 27350 27786 FEMALES 0-4 1838 1802 1797 1783 1793 1807 1809 1802 1794 1792 5-9 1796 1839 1804 1794 1780 1790 l804 1807 1800 1793 10-14 1764 1799 1842 1802 1793 1779 1789 1803 1806 1800 15-19 1724 1767 1801 1840 1800 1791 177 1788 1803 1806 20-24 1651 1730 1773 178 1837 1798 1789 1m 1786 1801 25-29 1967 1658 1737 1769 1795 1834 1795 176 1773 1784 30-34 1955 1969 1662 1732 1765 1791 1830 1792 1783 1770 35-39 1896 1951 1967 1656 1727 1760 1787 1826 1788 1779 40-44 1397 1886 1942 1957 1649 1720 1753 1780 1820 1782 45-49 1699 1383 1870 1927 1943 1638 1710 1744 1771 1812 50-54 1958 1670 1363 1846 1906 1924 1623 169f 1730 1758 55-59 1622 1906 1632 1337 1816 1877 1897 1601 1675 1711 60-64 1938 1554 1840 1584 1304 1774 1838 1861 1574 1650 65-69 1343 1804 1466 1753 1522 1257 1717 1784 1813 1539 70-74 983 1185 1A30 1349 1637 1430 1188 1633 1707 1745 75+ 1888 1836 2021 2628 2887 3254 3381 3226 3534 3940 TOTAL 27419 2m9 28147 28555 28953 29224 29486 29703 29956 30261 BIRTH RATE 14.6 14.2 13.9 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.8 DEATH RATE 11.4 10.9 10.5 10.5 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.6 10.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. .32 .33 .34 .32 .25 .25 .22 .24 .26 NET MIGRATION RATE .5 .5 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .37 .38 .34 .32 .25 .25 .22 .24 .26 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.100 2.094 2.088 2.083 2.079 2.075 2.072 2.068 2.064 NRR 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 eCO) B BOTH SEXES 71.65 73.00 74.34 75.67 76.53 77.42 78.35 79.33 80.35 eCIS) - B0TH SEXES 58.19 59.40 60.58 61.75 62.50 63.28 64.10 64.96 65.86 INR - BOTH SEXES 14.5 12.9 11.0 9.4 8.3 7.3 6.2 5.2 4.1 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0179 .0159 .0137 .0117 .0105 .0093 .0081 .0068 .0056 DEP. RATIO 49.9 53.5 54.6 57.6 58.3 56.6 58.8 61.2 63.8 64.0 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrITRIES 191 Surory Projection for 25-Year Perfods UKRAINE AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 50917 53754 57306 59929 61526 62461 63050 63338 MALES 0-4 1914 1863 1877 1883 1883 1883 1883 1883 5-9 1860 18n 1882 1883 1882 1881 1881 1881 10-14 1816 1878 1887 1881 1880 1880 1881 1881 15-19 1789 1906 1880 1875 1877 1879 1880 1880 20-24 1667 1844 1856 1864 1873 1876 1877 1877 25-29 1949 1791 1832 1857 1868 1871 1871 1872 30-34 1904 1758 1832 1856 1863 1865 1866 1867 35-39 1808 1634 1826 1853 1855 1857 1860 1862 40-44 1282 1892 1840 1835 1839 1847 1852 1855 45-49 1489 1819 1761 1799 1818 1834 1841 1844 50-54 1708 1676 1677 1753 1793 1813 1822 1825 55-59 1303 1132 1589 1714 1759 1781 1792 1797 60-64 1262 1218 1392 1648 1707 1732 1748 1757 65-69 657 1250 145 1569 1620 1656 1683 1697 70-74 416 805 1211 1368 1481 1543 1585 1605 75+ 674 862 1543 2416 3041 3389 3611 3723 TOTAL 23498 25198 27350 29054 30039 30586 30932 31105 FEMALES 0-4 1838 1783 1794 1798 1798 1797 1797 1796 5-9 1796 1794 1800 1799 1797 1796 1796 1796 10-14 1764 1802 1806 1798 1796 1795 1796 1796 15-19 1724 1840 1803 1794 4 1795 1795 1795 20-24 1651 1798 1786 1789 193 1795 1795 1795 25-29 1967 1769 17m 1789 1794 1795 1794 1794 30-34 1955 1732 1783 1794 1795 1793 1793 1793 35-39 1896 1656 1788 1797 1792 1791 1791 1792 40-44 1397 1957 1820 1790 1785 1787 1790 1791 45-49 1699 1927 1771 1768 1777 1784 1787 1788 50-54 1958 1846 1730 1747 1770 1780 1783 1784 55-59 1622 1337 1675 1744 1766 1773 1776 1778 60-64 1938 1584 1574 1730 1756 1761 1766 1769 65-69 1343 1753 1813 1733 1729 1739 1750 1756 70-74 983 1349 1707 1642 1676 1706 1726 1736 5+ 1888 2628 3534 4364 4871 51l8 5382 5474 TOTAL 27419 28555 29956 30876 31487 31875 32117 32233 BIRTH RATE 14.2 13.4 12.6 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 DEATH RATE 10.9 10.8 10.8 11.1 11.3 11,4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .36 .26 .18 .11 .06 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.088 2.075 2.062 2.059 2.057 2.056 2.056 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 73.01 77.48 81.44 83.57 84.n 85.56 85.89 IMR - BOTN SEXES 12.8 7.3 3.6 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 192 CouNlnUEs, ECONOMIS, AND MlURITORMS UNITErrED ARtB EI ATES Projeotion (thouands) with HRRaI by 2020 AGE GROIP 19lo 1990 1 95 am a0m5 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL H.F 1349 1592 1785 110 2151 215 2455 2565 2660 274 HALES 0-4 a 67 a3 101 109 .. llt 106 98 98 103 5-9 76 5s of 101 109 111 106 98 98 10-14 55 78 6 I 93 100 109 111 106 98 15-19 46 S 79 67 69 93 100 108 110 106 20-24 S9 56 43. 81 67 s9 93 100 108 110 25-29 121 74 a3 o 80 a U 92 99 108 30-34 163 133 it 45 ff s0 66 Be 92 99 35-39 124 172 1316 GI 45 65 80 85 87 91 40-44 61 129 173 16 s0 64 64 79 84 87 45-49 52 3 1# 171 135 79 64 63 78 84 50-54 29 52 G1 185 1" 131 77 62 62 77 55-59 1? 28 49 rr li9 140 126 75 60 60 60-64 a 16 M 46 72 112 151 120 71 58 65-69 5 7 16 n 41 66 103 139 111 66 70-74 3 4 6 12t 20 M 7s 90 123 100 75. 3 4 5 7 12 22 40 69 114 171 TOTAL 922 1064 1169 120 13n55 1402 1454 1485 1503 1515 FEMALES 0-4 79 64 Z9 9r 104 106 101 94 94 99 5-9 n2 6a 6 9 9 104 106 101 93 94 10-14 50 74 a a go 96 104 106 101 93 15-19 32 52 75 ff 6 90 96 104 106 101 20-24 30 35 5 76 as 86 69 96 104 106 25-29 39 3$ 55 76 #6 86 89 96 104 30-34 40 42 36 3 is 76 84 86 89 96 35-39 26 42 43 36 3 54 75 84 85 89 0-44 10 27 42 43 36 36 54 75 84 85 45S-49 11 1S 27 2 43 36 38 54 75 83 50-54 a 11 1 7 41 42 35 37 53 74 55-59 7 8 11 I6 as 40 41 34 37 52 60-" 4 t ? 10 17 25 39 40 34 36 65-69 4 4 6 7 10 16 24 37 38 32 70-74 2 3 3 5 6 9 1s 22 35 36 75. 3 3 4 s 7 10 13 21 33 54 TOTAL 427 s52 424 n 6nr 91S 1002 1081 1157 1233 BIRTH RATE 23.2 21.6 21.2 21.0 19.7 17.6 15.4 14.8 15.0 DEATH RATE 3.7 3.6 4.0 4.4 5.1 5.8 6.6 7.6 8.5 RATE Of MAT. INC. 1.95 1.78 1.72 1.6 1.47 1.15 .88 .72 .65 MET HIGRATION RATE 1Y.6 5.9 2.7 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTN RATE 3.31 2.6 1.99 1." 1.47 1.16 .8U .72 .65 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.020 4.305 S.91o 3.455 2.974 2.561 2.205 2.076 2.071 ERR 2.252 2.099 1.85 1.64? 1.422 1.227 1.059 1.000 1.000 oCO) - 6OTN EXES 7066 72.04 73.42 74.75 75.71 76.66 77.70 78.76 79.88 S(15) - BOT SEXES 58.25 59.17 60.20 61.3 42.03 42.6 43.63 64.49 65.40 IN M 0TN SEXES 26.0 21.0 17.1 13.9 11.9 10.0 6.1 6.2 4.2 q(S) - BOTN SEXES .0311 .oam2 .0206 .016 .0147 .0125 .0102 .0080 .0058 DEP. RATIO 47.5 48.0 46O 45.1 47.2 51.3 567. 63.2 64.8 61.3 COUNIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES 193 St_ry Projection for 25-Year Perior UNITE ARAB EMIRATES AGE GROUP 1965 2000 2025 2050 2073 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL NFf 1349 t980 2660 3035 3338 3412 3450 3468 MALES 0-4 82 101 96 102 103 103 103 103 5-9 76 93 96 103 104 103 103 103 10-14 55 B9 106 105 104 103 103 103 15-19 4 67 110 106 103 103 103 103 20-24 59 61 106 103 102 102 103 103 25-29 121 66 99 97 101 102 103 103 30-34 163 65 92 97 102 103 103 102 35-39 124 61 7 104l 104 103 102 102 40-44 e1 136 64 108 104 102 101 102 45-49 52 171 76 105 101 100 101 101 50-54 29 125 62 95 94 98 100 100 55-59 17 77 60 86 92 98 99 99 60-64 a 46 71 80 96 97 97 97 65-69 5 23 111 73 96 94 93 93 70-74 3 12 123 62 86 86 86 88 75+ 3 7 114 115 161 186 200 206 TOTAL 922 1260 1503 1542 1655 1684 1700 1708 FEMALES 0-4 79 97 94 97 9B 99 98 98 5-9 72 90 93 98 99 99 98 98 10-14 50 86 101 101 99 98 98 98 15-19 32 65 106 101 98 98 98 98 20-24 30 76 104 9t 97 98 98 98 25-29 39 55 96 93 97 98 98 98 30-34 40 38 89 93 98 99 98 98 35-39 26 36 65 100 100 99 98 98 40-44 18 43 64 105 100 98 98 98 45-49 11 42 75 103 97 97 97 98 50-54 8 27 53 94 92 96 97 98 55-59 7 18 37 86 91 97 98 97 60-64 4 10 34 82 97 98 97 97 65-69 4 7 38 76 100 97 96 96 70-74 2 5 35 67 96 93 93 94 75 3 33 96 222 266 288 297 TOTAL 427 720 1157 1493 1683 1728 1750 1760 BIRTH RATE 21.9 17.5 14.3 12.6 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 3.8 6.0 9.1 8.8 11.1 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE 6.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.56 1.18 .53 .38 .09 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.318 2.582 2.068 2.062 2.060 2.058 2.057 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 72.16 76.84 61.04 63.28 84.53 85.4 85.84 INR - BOTH SEXES 21.1 10.1 3.7 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 194 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRITORIES UNITED KINGDOM ProJectfon (thousands) with NRR=1 by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 56618 57395 58314 59101 59735 60274 60834 61481 62123 62652 MALES 0-4 1850 1963 2061 1979 1877 1835 1863 1913 1933 1921 5-9 1746 1854 1962 2058 1976 1875 1833 1861 1911 1931 10-14 1997 1749 1853 1960 2056 1975 1873 1832 1861 1910 15-19 2328 1998 1746 1850 1956 2053 1972 1871 1830 1859 20-24 2412 2326 1992 1740 1842 1949 2046 1965 1866 1825 25-29 2073 2411 2318 1983 1732 1834 1940 2037 1957 1858 30-34 1899 2073 2402 2307 1973 1723 1825 1932 2028 1950 35-39 2075 1895 2062 2388 2294 1962 1714 1816 1923 2020 40-64 1722 2060 1878 2045 2369 2276 1948 1702 1804 1911 45-49 1589 1698 2030 1852 2018 2340 2250 1927 1686 1788 50-54 1514 1547 1655 1983 1813 1978 2295 2210 1894 1659 55-59 1507 1447 1484 1595 1917 1756 1919 2232 2152 1848 60-64 1494 1400 1355 1400 1513 1825 1678 1840 2147 2078 65-69 1150 1331 1261 1234 1287 1399 1698 1571 1733 2033 70-74 1016 955 1124 1083 1077 1134 1246 1527 1426 1588 75+ 1202 1375 1455 1655 1782 1869 1979 2167 2555 2763 TOTAL 27574 28081 28639 29111 29483 29783 30081 30402 30705 30941 FEMALES 0-4 1760 1872 1964 1885 1787 1747 lm 1820 1839 1827 5-9 1653 1765 1872 1962 1883 1785 1745 17m 1819 1838 10-14 1891 1657 1766 1871 1961 1882 1785 1745 1771 1818 15-19 2212 1895 1658 1765 1870 1959 1880 1784 1744 1771 20-24 2335 2221 1897 1657 1762 1867 1957 1878 1782 1742 25-29 2030 2345 2222 1895 1654 1759 1864 1954 1875 1779 30-34 1870 2036 2343 2217 1890 1650 1756 1860 1950 1872 35-39 2069 1871 2031 2336 2210 1885 1646 1751 1856 1946 40-44 1701 2060 1861 2021 2325 2201 1877 1640 1746 1851 45-49 1582 1687 2043 1846 2006 2309 2187 1866 1631 1738 50-54 1526 1559 1663 2017 1825 1984 2286 2167 1851 1619 55-59 1573 1491 1526 1631 1982 1796 1955 2255 2140 1830 60-64 1651 1516 1442 1480 1588 1933 1756 1916 2215 2107 65-69 1390 1554 1435 1373 1418 1527 1866 1702 1864 2164 70-74 1385 1252 1414 1318 1275 1325 1437 1769 1625 1792 75+ 2416 2532 2540 2715 2818 2881 2984 3200 3711 4016 TOTAL 29044 29315 29676 29989 30253 30491 30753 31079 31419 31711 BIRTH RATE 13.6 14.0 13.3 12.4 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.3 12.1 DEATH RATE 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.3 ¶0.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. .21 .30 .26 .21 .18 .19 .21 .21 .17 NET MIGRATION RATE .6 .2 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .27 .32 .27 .21 .18 .18 .21 .21 .17 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.820 1.920 1.940 1.961 1.981 2.001 2.020 2.040 2.059 NRR .872 .921 .932 .943 .954 .965 .975 .986 .996 e(0) - BOTH SEXES 74.99 76.01 77.04 78.09 78.78 79.50 80.25 81.03 81.84 e(15) - BOTH SEXES 61.04 61.92 62.84 63.79 64.43 65.09 65.78 66.49 67.24 IHR - BOTH SEXES 9.2 7.8 6.7 5.8 5.3 4.8 4.3 3.8 3.3 q(5) - BOTH SEXES .0116 .0049 .0086 .0076 .0070 .0064 .0058 .0052 .0046 DEP. RATIO 52.3 52.9 55.1 55.5 55.0 54.4 57.0 59.3 63.2 69.1 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrrORIES 195 Sunnary Projectlon for 25-Year Periods UNITED KINGDOM AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL H+F 56618 59101 62123 62763 62803 63266 63678 63904 MALES 0-4 1850 1979 1933 1905 1897 1897 1898 1899 5-9 1746 2058 1911 1889 1892 1896 1898 1898 10-14 1997 1960 1861 1879 1894 1898 1898 1897 15-19 2328 1850 1830 1890 1901 1899 1897 1896 20-24 2412 1740 1866 1913 1903 1895 1893 1893 25-29 2073 1983 1957 1918 1892 1886 1887 1888 30-34 1899 2307 2028 1891 1872 1877 1882 1884 35-39 2075 2388 1923 1834 1856 1874 1879 1879 40-44 1722 2045 1804 1795 1860 1874 1874 1873 45-49 1589 1852 1686 1820 1873 1867 1862 1861 50-54 1514 1983 1894 1889 1862 1842 1840 1842 55-59 1507 1595 2152 1923 1808 1798 1808 1815 60-64 1494 1400 2147 1774 1713 1746 1770 1779 65-69 1150 1234 1733 1594 1616 1693 1717 1723 70-74 1016 1083 1426 1390 1544 1616 1628 1632 75+ 1202 1655 2555 3623 3606 3647 3753 3827 TOTAL 27574 29111 30705 30928 30991 31206 31383 31485 FEMALES 0-4 1760 1885 1839 1812 1805 1805 1806 1807 5-9 1653 1962 1819 1797 1801 1805 1806 1806 10-14 1891 1871 1771 1788 1803 1807 1806 1806 15-19 2212 1765 1744 1799 1810 1808 1806 1805 20-24 2335 1657 1782 1824 1814 1807 1805 1805 25-29 2030 1895 1875 1834 1808 1802 1803 1804 30-34 1870 2217 1950 1812 1793 1798 1802 1804 35-39 2069 2336 1856 1762 1781 1798 1803 1803 40-44 1701 2021 1746 1731 1790 1803 1803 1801 45-49 1582 1846 1631 1764 1811 1804 1799 1798 50-54 1526 2017 1851 1847 1814 1794 1790 1792 55-59 1573 1631 2140 1906 1783 1771 1780 1786 60-64 1651 1480 2215 1795 1721 1750 1m 1780 65-69 1390 1373 1864 1660 1671 1743 1765 1769 70-74 1385 1318 1625 1510 1670 1738 1746 1747 75+ 2416 2715 3711 5193 5137 5228 5404 5506 TOTAL 29044 29989 31419 31835 31813 32060 32295 32418 BIRTH RATE 13.6 12.2 11.8 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.6 DEATH RATE 11.1 10.2 11.4 11.9 11.5 11.4 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE .3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .29 .20 .04 .00 .03 .03 .01 TOTAL FERTILITY 1.892 2.000 2.064 2.062 2.061 2.059 2.059 etO) - BOTH SEXES 76.03 79.54 82.65 84.25 85.11 85.75 86.02 INR - BOTH SEXES 7.9 4.8 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 196 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES,; AND TERRITRIES UZBEKISTAN Projection (thousands) with NRR=l by 2015 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 18090 20532 22765 25224 27696 30147 32450 34682 36887 39007 MALES 0-4 1490 1684 1545 1526 1554 1578 1532 1527 1549 1553 5-9 1204 1462 1659 1S36 1519 158 1572 1528 1524 1546 10-14 1039 1187 1446 1655 1532 151S 1545 1569 1525 1522 15-19 916 1021 1170 1440 1648 1526 1510 1540 1565 1522 20-24 832 885 993 1161 129 1636 1517 1501 1532 1558 25-29 813 73 850 983 1150 1417 1624 1507 1492 1524 30-34 636 778 762 641 973 1140 1406 1613 1497 1484 35-39 460 607 751 752 832 964 1130 1395 1601 1488 40-44 262 438 585 739 741 821 951 1117 1380 1586 45-49 290 246 419 570 722 725 04 934 1099 1360 50-54 295 274 232 402 549 697 702 781 909 1072 55-59 243 273 254 218 378 518 661 669 748 875 60-64 197 217 245 230 198 346 477 613 625 703 65-69 89 167 185 210 198 172 304 424 550 567 70-74 55 69 130 145 167 160 141 252 357 470 75+ 115 84 80 123 160 195 212 209 295 438 TOTAL 8935 10184 11308 12530 13750 14958 16089 17180 18249 19266 FEMALES 0-4 1448 1620 1485 1465 1491 1512 1468 1463 1483 148' 5-9 1180 1423 1598 1479 1460 1486 1509 1465 1460 1481 10-14 1020 1164 1409 1596 1476 1458 1485 1507 1464 1460 15-19 915 1002 1149 1406 1593 1474 1456 1483 1506 1463 20-24 842 883 976 114 1404 1590 1472 1454 1481 1504 25-29 817 804 852 973 114 1401 1587 1469 1451 1479 30-34 636 786 779 849 970 1141 1397 1583 1466 1448 35-39 466 614 767 m 845 967 1137 1392 1578 1462 40-44 261 451 600 762 771 841 962 1131 1386 1572 45-49 281 252 441 594 755 764 834 954 1123 1378 50-54 300 272 245 433 58 744 754 824 944 1112 55-59 270 28 263 239 423 5n 730 741 811 930 60-64 245 254 274 252 230 409 555 710 722 795 65-69 158 222 234 256 238 218 390 531 682 698 70-74 113 133 192 207 231 217 201 361 497 643 75+ 204 180 193 262 331 394 426 433 583 831 TOTAL 9155 10348 11457 12694 13947 15189 16361 17503 18639 19741 BIRTH RATE 36.0 29.2 25.7 23.6 21.9 19.5 18.1 17.1 16.1 DEATH RATE 6.9 5.8 5.2 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. 2.91 2.34 2.05 1.87 1.70 1.47 1.33 1.23 1.12 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.7 -2.8 ;0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROUTH RATE 2.53 2.06 2.05 1.87 1.70 1.47 1.33 1.23 1.12 TOTAL FERTILITY 4.285 3.73 3.301 2.886 2.523 2.206 2.090 2.080 2.071 NRR 1.977 1.762 1.546 1.361 1.196 1.050 1.000 1.000 1.000 e(O) - BOTH SEXES 67.92 69.34 70.82 n.33 73.39 74.49 7s."4 76.84 78.09 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 56.54 57.54 58.57 59.68 60.43 61.21 62.04 62.90 63.81 NR - BOTH SEXES 38.9 33.7 28.1 23.1 19.7 16.2 12.8 9.3 5.9 q(S) - BOTH SEXES .0461 .0400 .0336 .0280 .0239 .0199 .0158 .0117 .0077 DEP. RATIO 81.4 84.3 80.5 70.8 59.7 Sr.I 49.8 48.1 48.0 48.2 COUMES, ECONOMB, AND IERRrIORIES 197 Summary Projectfon for 25-Yeer PWeods UZiEKISTAN AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 207 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL M+F 18090 25224 36NW? 45730 49022 50969 S166 51976 MALES 0-4 1490 1526 1549 s45 154? 1546 1549 1549 5-9 1204 1536 in24 1542 14? 14s 1S 1547 10-14 1039 1655 15 1544 15". 1U 1547 1547 15-19 916 1440 65 154? 154? 1546 154 1546 20-24 832 1161 1532 1542 1541 1542 1543 1544 25-29 813 983 149 12 1552 1536 1539 1540 30-34 636 641 1497 148 1524 1532 1535 1536 35-39 460 752 1401 1494 150 1526 1530 1531 40-44 262 739 .150 152 - 1515 1S21 1523 1525 45-49 290 570 1099 1470 1501 1507 1512 1516 50-54 295 402 909 1419 1471 1484 1495 1500 55-59 243 216 748 136 1414 1453 1470 1477 60-64 197 230 625 1421 1366 1414 1435 1444 65-69 89 210 550 114 132 1354 1361 1393 70-74 55 145 35r 16 1191 1259 1295 1314 75+ 115 123 295 105 2302 2671 2910 3029 TOTAL 8935 12530 1Wa9 2246 24394 24992 25357 25536 FEMALES 0-4 1448 140 140 1476 14Ur 1478 1478 1476 5-9 1180 1479 1460 1474 1477 1477 147 1477 10-14 1020 1596 1444 1475 1470 147 1477 1477 15-19 915 1406 1506 1482 1479 1477 1477 147 20-24 842 1146 1481 14U2 1476 1476 1476 1476 25-29 617 973 151 1476 1472 1474 1475 1476 30-34 636 649 1446 1453 1470 1474 1475 1475 35-39 466 m 1576 .' 1454 1471 1474 1474 1474 40-44 261 762 1366 1492 1472 1472 1472 1472 45-49 281 594 112n 1461 1469 1466 1466 1470 50-54 300 433 944 1423 1456 1458 1463 1466 55-59 270 239 all 1422 1423 144 1458 1461 60-64 245 252 7Z2 150s 1410 1439 1450 1454 65-69 156 256 642 1296 145 1426 1437 1442 70-74 113 207 49r 1010 1362 1397 1412 1422 75* 204 262 13 3611 4064 4316 4444 TOTAL 9155 12694 1w9 2M3 25 259 26287 26440 BIRTH RATE 29.9 19.6 14.6 12.6 12.0 11.5 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.9 4.6 6.1 9.2 11.1 11.3 11.5 NET MIGRATION RATE -2.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 2.22 1.52 As ,34 .09 .05 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 3.m2 2 . 2.RW .2.61 2RAW 2.0S7 2.056 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 69.46 74.J 79.04 82.51 64.06 65.23 85.69 INR . BOTH SEXES 33.8 16.3 4.6 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.0 198 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrFORIES WEST BANK Projection (thousands) with NRR-1 by 2025 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 930 1088 1289 1S07 1734 1957 2174 2381 2572 2759 MALES 0-4 82 91 114 124 129 130 129 127 121 122 5-9 74 81 91 113 123 129 129 128 126 121 10-14 67 74 81 90 113 123 128 129 128 126 15-19 57 66 73 80 90 112 123 128 129 128 20-24 48 56 66 73 so 90 112 122 127 128 25-29 45 48 56 65 72 79 89 111 121 127 30-34 24 45 47 55 65 72 79 88 110 121 35-39 20 23 44 47 55 64 71 78 88 110 40-44 18 20 23 43 46 54 63 71 77 87 45-49 16 18 20 22 43 45 53 62 69 76 50-54 13 15 17 19 22 41 44 52 61 68 55-59 10 12 14 16 18 21 39 42 50 58 60-64 6 9 1 13 15 16 19 37 39 47 65-69 5 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 33 36 70-74 3 4 4 6 8 9 11 12 14 28 75+ 2 3 4 5 7 9 11 14 16 20 TOTAL 491 571 672 782 896 1007 1115 1218 1311 1403 FEMALES 0-4 79 88 109 119 124 124 123 121 115 117 5-9 68 78 88 109 119 124 124 123 121 115 10-14 61 68 78 87 109 118 123 124 123 121 15-19 52 60 68 78 87 108 118 123 124 123 20-24 40 52 60 67 78 87 108 118 123 124 25-29 30 40 51 60 67 77 87 108 118 123 30-34 21 30 39 51 59 67 77 86 108 117 35-39 18 20 30 39 51 59 67 77 86 107 40-44 16 18 20 29 39 50 59 66 76 86 45-49 15 16 18 20 29 38 50 58 65 76 50-54 10 15 15 17 19 28 38 49 57 65 55-59 9 9 14 15 17 19 28 37 48 56 60-64 6 8 9 13 14 16 18 27 35 46 65-69 5 6 7 8 12 13 15 17 25 34 70-74 3 4 5 6 7 11 12 13 15 23 75n 5 5 5 6 8 9 14 17 21 25 TOTAL 439 517 617 725 838 950 1059 1163 1260 1356 BIRTH RATE 37.6 39.4 36.3 32.4 28.4 25.0 22.2 19.3 18.1 DEATH RATE 6.2 5.6 5.0 4.4 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.0 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.14 3.38 3.13 2.80 2.42 2.10 1.82 1.54 1.41 NET MIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.15 3.38 3.13 2.80 2.42 2.10 1.82 1.54 1.41 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.750 5.450 4.850 4.250 3.650 3.094 2.623 2.224 2.082 NRR 2.577 2.479 2.235 1.980 1.711 1.460 1.245 1.062 1.000 eCO) - BOTH SEXES 65.94 67.43 69.05 70.67 71.84 73.05 74.32 75.64 77.03 WS) - BOTH SEXES 55.52 56.46 57.49 58.58 59.34 60.15 61.00 61.89 62.83 INR - BOTH SEXES 50.0 43.5 36.4 30.0 25.3 20.7 16.0 11.4 6.7 qt5) - BOTH SEXES .0594 .0514 .0432 .0357 .0303 .0249 .0195 .0141 .0087 DEP. RATIO 95.7 87.6 85.4 82.9 79.8 71.0 62.3 54.7 50.2 47.4 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRrFDRIES I99 Suinmry Projection for 25-Year Periods WEST BANK AGE GROUP 1965 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 930 1507 2572 3436 3947 4094 4164 4197 HALES 0-4 82 124 121 125 126 126 125 125 5-9 74 113 126 127 126 125 125 125 10-14 67 90 128 128 126 125 125 125 15-19 57 S0 129 127 125 125 125 125 20-24 46 73 127 122 124 125 125 125 25-29 45 65 121 119 124 125 125 125 30-34 24 55 110 124 125 125 124 124 35-39 20 47 a8 126 126 124 124 124 40-44 18 43 77 125 124 123 123 123 45-49 16 22 69 123 116 121 122 123 50-54 13 19 61 115 115 120 121 122 55-59 10 16 50 102 117 119 120 120 60-64 6 13 39 76 115 117 117 117 65-69 5 9 33 64 110 111 111 113 70-74 3 6 14 52 100 100 104 106 75+ 2 5 16 68 162 214 236 246 TOTAL 491 782 1311 1726 1962 2024 2054 2068 FEMALES 0-4 79 119 115 119 120 120 120 119 5-9 68 109 121 121 120 120 119 119 10-14 61 87 123 122 120 119 119 119 15-19 52 78 124 121 119 119 119 119 20-24 40 67 123 116 118 119 119 119 25-29 30 60 118 115 119 120 119 119 30-34 21 51 108 120 120 120 119 119 35-39 18 39 86 122 121 119 119 119 40-44 16 29 76 122 120 118 119 119 45-49 15 20 65 121 115 117 118 119 50-54 10 1? 57 115 113 117 119 119 55-59 9 1S 48 103 117 118 118 118 60-64 6 13 35 81 117 118 117 1I7 65-69 5 8 25 70 115 115 115 1wN 70-74 3 6 15 ST 110 108 112 114 75. 5 6 21 87 222 303 337 352 TOTAL 439 725 1260 1710 1985 2070 2110 2129 BIRTH RATE 37.7 24.8 16.4 13.2 12.2 11.9 11.7 DEATH RATE 5.5 4.1 4.9 7.7 10.7 11.2 11.4 ET NIGRATION RATE .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GRO0TH RATE 3.22 2.14 1.16 .55 .15 .07 .03 TOTAL FERTILITY 5.277 3.028 2.076 2.065 2.061 i.059 2.058 etO) - BOTH SEXES 67.64 73.36 78.72 81.89 83.68 85.04 85.57 IR - BOTH SEXES 42.7 20.9 5.5 3.3 2.6 2.2 2.1 200 COUNIE, ECONOMIES, AND IIRI1DORMS YEMEN, REP. OF Projection Cthausnd) with MRRi by 2055 AGE GR0tWP 1965 19"0 19s 2m a 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL NiF 9670 1122 1344 16177 1936 23027 2719 3195 37152 42713 MALES 0-4 924 1180 1436 1721 19" 2244 2534 2543 3121 3315 5-9 758 8s 111? 137 153 192 2173 2U5 2m 3061 10-14 638 741 Wo 1100 13 1654 1907 2153 24S 2757 15-19 S18 620 72 6 103 1334 1613 168 2132 2424 20-24 425 46 596 70? 614 10" 13 156 16 2105 25-29 222 364 462 S57 4 91" 1033 120 1556 1629 30-34 162 190 m 44 516 663 7 1009 1254 1530 35-39 167 1 177 347 4U5 536 "1 749 965 1229 40-44 162 146 12? 167 39 407 515 619 726 959 45-49 1S5 145 1S$ 116 I5 311 366 492 594 700 50-54 144 14 132 124 109 145 290 362 464 56 55-59 11 12? 126 116 111 96 132 265 334 430 60-64 94 100 106 101 101 96 66 116 235 29 65-69 66 74 60 66 66 a 79 71 97 196 70-74 41 4U 53 So 63 63 61 S9 54 74 75+ 34 36 43 50 SS 61 66 67 67 65 TOTAL 4629 S422 66 m71 959 11452 1394 16020 169 21536 FEMALES 0-4 900 1149 139 1673 199 2173 2451 2746 3010 3192 5-9 739 642 1069 1336 1610 1675 2110 2369 2686 2956 10-14 623 72 2 1071 13' 1591 1655 2090 270 2669 15-19 514 406 706 6ll 1052 12 1s69 1634 2070 2352 20-24 42 492 5S6 769 1028 lm 1543 1808 2048 25-29 314 417 472 55 6 767 1003 1245 1517 1764 30-34 275 25 399 43 544 641 As4 979 1221 1493 35-39 259 25 2l 3S1 434 524 620 7n5 957 1198 40-44 222 243 244 267 363 416 505 601 m 93s 45-49 1ff 206 229 21 253 346 399 46 Sol 685 50-54 165 161 19M 214 216 236 32 379 465 559 55-59 128 149 164 176 196 199 221 306 356 440 6O-64 102 111 SO 14" 155 174 176 200 279 328 65-69 74 ss 92 107 120 130 146 1S3 173 245 70.74 49 55 62 69 92 102 117 123 141 75+ 40 47 54 62 71 n4 go 114 133 149 TOTAL 5041 S660 6968 S246 960 11575 13603 1590 18454 21175 BIRTH RATE 52.7 53.6 52.7 56.2 46.7 4.o 41.5 36.6 35.0 DEATH RATE 16.3 17.4 15.6 13.9 12.2 10.8 9.5 6.3 7.2 RATE OF NAT. INC. 3.4 3.62 S.69 3.63 3,45 3.33 3.20 3.03 2.79 NET MIGRATION RATE -3.6 -.9 -.3 -.1 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE 3.08 3.54 3.67 3.62 3.45 3.33 3.21 3.03 2.79 TOTAL FERTILITY 7.708 7.76 7.70B 7.408 6.608 6.208 5.608 5.006 4.408 NRR 2.683 2.75 2.62s 2.60 2.664 2.472 2.290 2.097 1.893 etO) - BOTH SEXES 47.83 46.6 50.S2 52.06 53.90 55.6 57.65 59.97 62.21 ecIS) - BOTH SEXES 45.62 46.00 46.40 .95 48.15 49.41 50.72 52.10 53.54 IR - BOTH SEXES 127.6 120.6 110.6 96.6 91.1 6.5 75.9 68.3 60.7 q(5) - BOTH SES .1690 .1m .1609 .1417 .1299 .1160 .1061 .0941 .0620 DEP. RATIO 102.1 107.4 111.7 116.5 114.5 106.0 99. 91.6 64.9 78.8 COUNflUEM, ECONOMIEMS AND TERRIRr IRES 201 mry ProjectIon for 25-Year PerfIod YEMEN, REP. OF GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 kL N"F 9670 16177 37152 64651 66615 100448 106252 108991 924 1721 3121 3377 3367 3353 3340 3335 758 1371 27M 3421 3372 3336 3331 3331 638 1100 2465 3395 3323 3309 3326 3332 518 835 2132 3S06 3207 3289 3328 3333 425 707 1=8 3200 3178 3296 3331 3329 222 577 1556 2969 3301 3319 3324 3317 162 444 1254 2655 3339 3316 3299 3300 167 347 965 2314 3294 3253 3258 3284 162 167 76 1Mo 3182 3120 3223 3272 158 118 594 1701 3045 3067 3210 3258 144 124 464 1382 2764 3138 3196 3221 118 118 334 1057 2379 3091 3131 3145 94 108 23S 762 1947 2926 2980 3031 66 86 97 492 1514 2647 2728 2883 41 # 54 327 1103 22"7 2485 2696 34 s0 67 277 1122 3229 5064 5757 DTAL 4629 793l 16s 32624 43439 49967 52555 538a 900 1673 3010 3248 3226 3196 3184 3179 739 1336 2656 3296 3237 3186 3176 3176 623 1071 2370 3277 3196 3163 3171 3177 514 81 2070 3196 3092 3151 3174 3179 42 685 1808 3102 3075 3168 3182 3180 314 s6o 1517 2b 3206 3203 3187 3176 27 453 1221 2591 3252 3212 3173 3167 259 381 957 2264 3217 3162 3145 3158 222 267 m 1954 3118 3047 3125 3155 195 231 58l 1680 2998 3013 3131 3156 165 214 465 1378 2749 3113 3148 3148 128 176 56 1072 2408 3113 3129 3116 102 144 279 795 2026 3013 3041 3061 74 107 173 535 1640 2821 2874 3001 49 69 123 376 1265 2557 2750 2941 40 62 133 373 1472 4362 7108 8197 ITAL 5041 8246 18454 32Cr 43176 5048 53697 5168 H RATE 53.0 43.3 27.6 17.5 14.0 12.6 12.1 H RA7E 17.0 10.5 6.0 5.9 8.1 10.4 11.1 NIGRATION RATE -1.4 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 RATE 3.43 3.33 2.22 1.17 .59 .22 .10 L FERTILITY 7.710 5.977 3.283 2.140 2.087 2.065 2.062 80TH SEXES 49.16 56.57 65.93 72.79 77.79 al.92 83.60 - BOTH SEXES 118.8 81.9 u.7 21.2 -10.2 3.3 2.7 207 COUFMRIES, ECONOMIESiAND TERRITORIES YUGOSLAVUI ProJection (thousands) with NRR=I by 2030 AGE GROUP 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TOTAL M+F 16567 17142 17730 18321 18908 19391 19805 20179 20543 20906 MALES 0-4 695 683 686 690 691 688 685 685 687 689 5-9 717 690 678 682 686 688 686 684 684 686 10-14 699 714 686 676 680 685 687 685 683 684 15-19 690 695 710 683 673 678 683 686 684 683 20-24 703 684 689 705 679 670 675 681 684 682 25-29 689 695 676 683 700 675 667 672 678 681 30-34 713 681 688 671 678 695 672 663 669 675 35-39 576 704 674 682 665 673 691 668 660 666 40-44 422 567 694 666 675 659 668 686 663 655 45-49 524 412 55S 682 655 6'5 650 659 678 656 50-54 532 505 399 540 665 640 650 637 646 666 55-59 449 502 480 381 518 641 617 629 617 628 60-64 315 410 463 447 358 489 606 587 600 592 65-69 111 274 361 413 403 326 448 559 545 561 70-74 187 89 223 300 350 346 283 393 496 489 75+ 220 233 177 245 365 475 537 524 606 763 TOTAL 8242 8539 8840 9144 9442 9693 9907 10098 10280 10454 FEMALES 0-4 651 644 646 649 649 646 643 642 643 645 5-9 677 647 641 643 647 648 645 642 641 642 10-14 659 675 645 639 642 646 647 644 642 641 15-19 650 656 6n 643 637 641 645 646 644 641 20-24 667 646 652 664 640 636 640 644 646 643 25-29 660 662 641 648 666 639 635 639 643 645 30-34 677 655 657 637 645 664 637 633 637 642 35-39 555 671 650 653 634 643 662 635 631 636 40-44 428 549 665 645 649 630 639 658 632 629 45-49 534 422 542 657 638 643 625 635 654 629 50-54 545 522 413 532 647 629 635 618 628 648 55-59 491 527 i07 402 520 634 617 624 608 619 60-64 432 465 5(12 486 388 503 615 601 609 596 65-69 141 395 430 469 458 368 480 589 579 589 70-74 254 121 345 382 424 418 339 446 553 547 75+ 304 345 282 422 580 712 795 785 873 1060 TOTAL 8325 8603 8889 9177 9466 9698 9898 10081 10262 10452 BIRTH RATE 16.3 15.7 15.2 14.7 14.1 13.7 13.4 13.2 12.9 DEATN RATE 9.2 8.6 8.3 8.2 9.0 9.5 9.7 9.6 9.4 RATE OF NAT. INC. .71 .71 .68 .65 .51 .42 .37 .36 .35 NE NIGRATION RATE -.3 -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .0 .0 .0 GRJTH RATE .68 .67 .66 .63 .50 .42 .37 .36 .35 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.100 2.100 2.100 2.098 2.097 2.095 2.093 2.091 2.090 NRR .973 .980 .986 .989 .991 .994 .996 .998 1.000 etO) - BOTH SEXES 70.41 72.03 73.61 75.09 76.01 76.96 77.95 78.98 80.05 e(IS) - BOTH SEXES 58.19 59.37 60.57 61.75 62.45 63.18 63.94 64.73 65.57 INR - BOTH SEXES 28.0 23.2 18.9 15.5 13.2 10.9 8.7 6.4 4.1 qtS) - BOTH SEXES .0336 .0278 .0228 .0188 .0162 .0135 .0109 .0083 .0057 DEP. RATIO 47.2 47.4 48.6 51.3 53.3 52.1 53.2 56.4 59.1 61.9 COUNTRIES, ECONOMIES, AND TERRIrORIES 203 Sumry Projection for 25-Year Periods YUGOSLAVIA AGE GROUP 1985 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 TOTAL N+F 16567 18321 20543 21689 22204 22549 22770 22882 MALES 0-4 695 690 68? 687 687 687 687 687 5-9 717 682 6864 687 687 687 687 687 10-14 699 676 683 687 687 687 687 687 15-19 690 683 686 688 687 686 686 686 20-24 703 705 684 686 685 685 685 685 25-29 689 683 678 681 682 683 683 683 30-34 713 671 669 676 680 681 681 682 35-39 576 682 660 672 678 679 680 480 40-44 422 666 663 670 676 676 6W7 677 45-49 524 682 678 665 670 671 673 673 50-54 532 540 646 651 659 663 666 667 55-59 449 381 617 630 643 651 655 657 60-64 315 447 600 602 623 636 640 643 65-69 111 413 545 575 596 611 618 621 70-74 17 300 496 542 555 573 582 588 75+ 220 245 606 1021 1169 1267 1336 1371 TOTAL 8242 9144 10280 10818 11064 11224 11322 11373 FEMALES 0-4 651 649 643 643 643 643 643 643 5-9 617 643 641 642 643 643 643 643 10-14 659 639 642 643 643 643 643 642 15-19 650 643 644 644 643 642 642 642 20-24 667 669 646 643 642 642 642 642 25-29 660 648 643 640 641 642 642 642 30-34 677 637 637 638 640 6 642 642 35-39 555 653 631 637 640 641 641 641 40-44 428 645 632 638 640 640 640 641 45-49 534 657 654 637 637 638 639 640 50-54 545 532 628 631 632 635 637 638 55-59 491 402 608 619 625 631 634 636 60-64 432 486 609 605 619 627 631 632 65-69 141 46h9 579 593 611 620 625 627 70-74 254 382 553 592 596 608 615 619 75+ 304 422 873 1425 1646 1789 1889 1939 TOTAL 8325 9177 10262 10871 11141 11325 11448 11509 BIRTH RATE 15.7 13.8 12.6 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.7 DEATH RATE 8.7 9.2 10.4 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 MET MIGRATION RATE -.3 -.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 GROWTH RATE .67 .46 .22 .09 .06 .04 .02 TOTAL FERTILITY 2.102 2.095 2.087 2.082 2.080 2.078 2.077 e(0) - BOTH SEXES 72.05 77.04 81.16 83.35 84.56 85.46 85.82 IMR - BOTH SEXES 23.4 11.0 3.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 Policy Research Working Paper Series Contact Title Author Date for paper WPS992 Regional Integration in Sub-Saharan Faezeh Foroutan October 1992 S. Fallon Africa: Experience and Prospects 37947 WPS993 An Economic Analysis of Capital S. Ibi Ajayi October 1992 N. Lopez Flight from NIgera 34555 WPS994 Textiles and Apparel In NAFTA: Geoffrey Bannister October 1992 A. Daruwala A Case of Constrained Liberalization Patrick Low 33713 WPS995 Recent Experience with Commercial Stijn Claessens October 1992 Rose Vo Bank Debt Reduction Ishac Diwan 33722 Eduardo Fernandez-Arias WPS996 Strategic Management of Population Michael H. Bernhart October ,992 0. Nadora Programs 31091 WPS997 How Financlal Liberalization in John R. Harris October 1992 W. Pitayatonakam Indonesia Affected Firms' Capital Fabio Schiantarelli 37664 Structure and Investment Decisions Miranda G. Siregar WPS998 What Determines Demand for Freight Esra Bennatthan October 1992 B. Gregory Transport? Julie Fraser 33744 Louis S. Thompson WPS999 Stopping Three Big Inflations Miguel A. Kiguel October 1992 R. Luz (Argentina, Brazil, and Peru) Nissan Liviatan 34303 WPS1000 Why Structural Adjustment Has Not Ibrahim A. Elbadawi October 1992 A. Maranon Succeeded in Sub-Saharan Africa Dhaneshwar Ghura 39074 Gilbert Uwujaren WPS1001 Have World Bank-Supported Ibrahim A. Elbadawi October 1992 A. Maranon Adjustment Programs Improved Economic 39074 Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa? WPS1002 World Fossil Fuel Subsidies and Biorn Larsen October 1992 WDR Office Global Carbon Emissions Anwar Shah 31393 WPS1003 Rent-Sharing in the Multi-Fibre Kala Krishna October 1992 M. T. Sanchez Arrangement: Evidence from U.S.- Ling Hui Tan 33731 Hong Kong Trade in Apparel WPS1004 Family Planning Programs in Sub- Regina McNamara October 1992 0. Nadora Saharan Africa: Case Studies from Therese McGinn 31091 Ghana, Rwanda, and the Sudan Donald Lauro John Ross WPS1005 An Approach to .he Economic Laszlo Lovei October 1992 M. Dhokai Analysis of Water Supply Projects 33970 Policy Research Working Paper Series Contact Title Author Date for paper WPS1006 Preparing Muftiyear Railway Jorge M. Rebelo October 1992 A. Turner Investment Plans: A Market-Oriented 30933 Approach WPS1007 Global Estimates and Projections RodoHfo A. Bulatao October 1992 0. Nadora of Mortaiity by Cause, 1970-2015 Patience W. Stephens 31091 WPS1008 Do the Poor Insure? A Synthesis of Harold Alderman October 1992 C. Spooner the Literature on Risk and Christina H. Paxson 32116 Consumption In Developing Countries WPS1009 Labor and Women's Nutrition: Paul A. Higgins October 1992 C. Spooner A Study of Energy Expenditure, Harold Alderman 32116 Fertility, and Nutritional Status in Ghana WPS1010 Competition and Efficiency in Dimtri Vittas October 1992 W. Pitayatonakarn Hungarian Banking Craig Neal 37664 WPS1 011 How Tax Incentives Affect Decisions Robin Boadway November 1992 C. Jones to Invest in Developing Countries Anwar Shah 37754 WPS1012 The Brady Plan, the 1989 Mexican Haluk Unal November 1992 W. Patrawimolpon Debt Reduction Agreement, and Bank Ashl DemirgOg-Kunt 37664 Stock Returns in the United States Kwok-Wai Leung and Japan YVPS1013 The Impact of Mexico's Retraining Ana Revenga November 1992 D. Young Program on Employment and Wages Michelle Riboud 30932 Hong Tan WPs1014 Ethnicity, Education, and Earnings George Psacharopoulos November 1992 L. Longo in Bolivia and Guatemala 39244 WPS1 015 Benefit Incidence Analysis in Thomas M. Selden November 1992 C. Jones Developing Countries Michael J. Wasylenko 37754 WPS1016 Europe and Central Asia Region, My T. Vu November 1992 0. Nadora Middle East and North Africa Region Eduard Bos 31091 Population Projections, 1992-93 Ann Levin Edition