Document of The World Bank FILE COPY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-2425-BB REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO BARBADOS FOR A FIRST EDUCATION PROJECT December 5, 1978 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit Barbados Dollar (BDS$) US$1 - BDS$2 BDS$1 = US$0.50 FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 hectare (ha) 2 - 2.47 acres 1 square meter (m ) 2 = 10.76 square feet 1 square kilometer (Km ) = 0.39 square miles ABBREVIATIONS BIDC - Barbados Industrial Development Corporation BIMAP - Barbados Institute of Management and Productivity CDB - Caribbean Development Bank CDF - Caribbean Development Facility CFTC - Commonwealth Fund for Technical Cooperation CIDA - Canadian International Development Agency IDB - Inter-American Development Bank MOE - Ministry of Education and Culture UWI - University of the West Indies FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY BARBADOS FIRST EDUCATION PROJECT LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Barlbados Amount: US$9.0 million Terms: Payable in 15 years, including three years of grace at 7.35% per annum. Project Description: The project aims to: enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of the education system; make possible the effective application of modern and relevant curricula; provide more equitable distribution of education oppor- tunity; and improve cost effectiveness in the education system. The project provides assistance in institution building for management and execution of education programs; complements and strengthens existing programs for management training and advisory services to small- scale enterprises; and introduces an in-plant workers' training program. The project consists of: (a) construction, furnishing and equipping of ten pri- mary schools which will replace 5,880 existing student places in obsolescent schools; (b), (i) construction, furnishing and equipping of expansion to six secondary schools to provide facilities for the teaching of practical courses for some 2,600 student places, of which 1,500 are additional and 1,100 are replacement places; (ii) equipping and furnishing of a secondary school presently under construction; (c) construction, furnishing and equipping of an expansion of Erdiston Teacher Training College to function also as a teacher training resource center for the continuing education of practicing teachers; (d) construction, furnishing and equipping of an expan- sion to the Barbados Institute of Management and Productivity (BIMAP) to help establish an in-plant training program and advisory services to small- scale enterprises; This documnent has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. - ii - (e) technical assistance to the Ministry of Education (MOE) for project implementation and to BIMAP for initiating the in-plant training program. The project entails no special risks except perhaps that the Government may initially encounter resistance in in- troducing targets for economic class sizes and teacher- student ratios. This resistance, if it materializes, is expected to be considerably diluted as the project allows the Government to move towards these targets on a stage- by-stage basis. i.e., the project schools as they are completed in 1980, 1981 and 1982 will be the first to introduce these norms: the rest of the schools will follow later. Estimated Cost (US$ million equivalent) Local Foreign Total Primary Schools 2.4 3.2 5.6 Secondary Schools 1.5 2.7 4.2 Teacher Education 0.2 0.4 0.6 Industrial Training 0.1 0.2 0.3 Technical Assistance 0.1 0.3 0.4 Base Costs 4.3 6.8 11.1 Contingencies Physical 0.4 0.7 1.1 Price 0.8 1-5 2.3 Total Costs 5.5 9.0 14.5 Financing Plan (US$ million equivalent) Local Foreign Total Bank - 9.0 9.0 Government 5.5 - 5.5 Total Project Cost 5.5 9.0 14.5 Estimated Disbursements (US$ million equivalent) Bank FY 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Annual .1 .8 3.3 2.3 2.5 Cumulative .1 .9 4.2 6.5 9.0 Staff Appraisal Report_ ~ No. 2220b-BB dated November 20, 1978 INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO BARBADOS FOR A FIRST EDUCATION PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed loan for the equivalent of US$9.0 million to Barbados for an education project. The loan would have a term of 15 years, including three years of grace, with interest at 7.35% per annum. PART I - THE ECONOMY 2. An economic report (Economic Memorandum on Barbados, Report No. 1618a-BB, dated March 31, 1978) was distributed to the Executive Directors on April 5, 1978. Annex 1 contains the basic country data. Background 3. Barbados is arnong the most densely populated countries in the world, with a total area of 166 square miles and a population of 247,000. Its loca- tion is somewhat isolated, as it lies in the southeastern Caribbean, some 100 miles east of the smaller islands of St. Vincent and St. Lucia, its nearest neighbors, and about 350 miles north of the coast of South America. The island is small even by Caribbean standards, being less than one-tenth the size of Trinidad and Tobago. It is one of the more developed countries of the Caribbean Common Market. Its per capita income in 1977, US$1,760 (accord- ing to the World Bank Atlas definition), is the second highest in the region, behind that of Trinidad and Tobago (US$2,380). Its relatively high income, the smallness of the island and its relative isolation from the rest of the Caribbean have contributed to the building of a rather homogeneous, close- knit society, with a long history of constitutional government. The country, which had been a British colony, attained self-government in 1961 and became a sovereign state in November 1966. Barbados joined the Bank in September 1974. 4. While the country's natural resource base is limited, the available resources are utilized in a relatively efficient manner. Soil, topography and rainfall patterns are ideally suited for growing sugarcane, which is the main agricultural product. There are no known metallic mineral deposits. However, pockets of petroleum and natural gas at present supply about one- third of the domestic energy consumption needs. A major strength of the country is its tolerant and well-educated populace. Perhaps the island's most valuable natural resources are its beautiful beaches and mild weather, which now attract close to 300,000 tourists annually and have permitted tourism to develop as one of the two most dynamic sectors of the economy, the other being manufacturing. 5. The international recession has recently evoked apprehension over the perils of excessive! reliance on a single sector, tourism, for future -2- growth. The result has been a redirection of both public and private effort increasingly into manufacturing. The Barbados Industrial Development Corpora- tion (BIDC), in particular, has been the prime vehicle for attracting private capital and launching new industrial enterprises in the country. The current strategy, as it pertains to the manufacturing sector, can be expected to entail continued effort on the part of BIDC in its search for, and promotion of, new ventures. The key bottleneck to the development of the sector, how- ever, continues to be a lack of skilled manpower. The educational system places too little emphasis on technical and vocational training as compared with secondary general education. 6. Barbados possesses a relatively well developed infrastructure. The road system provides ready access to virtually every corner of the island. As a result of a rapid growth in private motor vehicles, however, road con- gestion is becoming a serious problem; there is need for improvements in the public transportation system. A large jet-accommodating airport and deepwater harbor supply air and sea transportation services for the country as well as for the nearby islands. Power generation capacity, although adequate at present, could pose increasing problems by the early 1980s when the peak demand is forecast to exceed the present generating plant load-carrying capability unless new investments are umdertaken to meet the emerging genera- ting gap. The Government has systematically pursued distribution-oriented policies geared to meet the basic needs of the population by increasing education, health and housing services. Nevertheless, further efforts in this direction are still required, especially for the poorer segments of the population. 7. Unemployment in Barbados is a grave problem that not only is a drain on the country's resources but is also socially debilitating. Although the unemployment rate is estimated to have declined from above 20% in 1975 to around 12.5% in mid-1978, the problem continues to be serious. At the same time, the island suffers from shortages in certain key skills. To ameliorate unemployment in the future, therefore, manpower training schemes must accom- pany increased investment in employment-generating activities. Population growth has traditionally been substantially lower than 1% per annum because of a successful family planning program and high migration to seek employment opportunities elsewhere. In recent years, restrictions on emigration by the United States, United Kingdom and Canada have severely curtailed emigration. As a result, future population growth is expected to be at a rate of about 1.2% per annum. Distribution of income in Barbados is not excessively uneven. Statistics compiled from income recipients for 1969/70 show that the proportion of total income accruing to the poorest 40% was 18.6%, while the top 20% of income recipients received 44%. Recent Economic Developments 8. The structure of economic activity in Barbados changed substan- tially in recent times with the sugar industry losing its predominant position in the economy to the fast-growing tourist, manufacturing and government sectors. The leading sector in the economy at present is the tourist sector which together with its ancillary service activities generates about one- third of GDP and accounts for about half of the foreign exchange earnings. - 3 - The Government and manufacturing sectors follow with 16% and 11% of GDP respectively. Sugar now accounts for less than 7% of GDP compared with 33% in the 1950s. Prolonged periods of dry weather combined with rising labor costs and weak international prices have been responsible for a decline in sugar production from the 1967 level of over 200,000 tons to an estimated 100,000 tons in 1978. 9. Because of its narrow resource base and limited internal market, Barbados is highly dependent on the external sector of its economy. In 1977, imports and exports of goods and nonfactor services were equivalent to about 70% and 60% of GDP respectively. Food imports constitute roughly one- half of domestic food consumption, a large portion of which is utilized to cover the needs of the tourist sector. 10. After a period of dynamic growth between 1966 and 1970--8.5% per capita per annum--real GDP grew modestly during the early 1970s, primarily because of the poorer performance of the tourist industry in the latter period. During this period the country began to experience increasing balance of payments and budgetary problems accompanied by rising unemploy- ment and accelerating inflation. Sharp increases in international prices associated with rising energy costs triggered unprecedented annual average increases in the retail price index of almost 40% in 1974 and about 20% in 1975. In these two years, the economic situation deteriorated further with real GDP declining at an average annual rate of about 1%. The major cause was the economic recession in the industrial countries combined with increasing prices for Barbados imports. Per capita income declined by an average of about 2% p.a. during these two years. 11. The economy recovered relatively well in 1976 and 1977 with real GDP growth averaging about 5% per annum, the main impetus coming from tourism, manufacturing and construction. The renewed growth resulted from a rise in tourism arrivals and length of stay, increased investment promotion efforts and use of idle manufacturing capacity, as well as an increase in the number of both private and public sector construction projects. In addition, the performance of the agricultural sector was enhanced as improved weather conditions for sugar led to higher yields and output increases of 5% and 15% in these two years, but most of this improvement was lost in 1978 when the sugar crop was poor and nonsugar agriculture could not take up the slack. Inflation fell to 5% in 1976 after the realignment of the Barbadian dollar with the US dollar, but increased to 8.4% in 1977 and about the same rate this year as a result of rising import prices, a prolonged drought in the agricul- tural sector and sizable overall wage increases in public sector salaries awarded in 1976 and again in 1978. 12. With the exception of a short period in the mid-1970s the capacity of the public sector to finance its investment expenditure has declined over the past several years. Public sector savings fell sharply in 1973-74, in- creased in 1975 as a result of higher sugar prices but declined to 2.9% and 2.7% of GDP in 1976 and 1977, respectively. Current budgetary revenue of the Central Government grew relatively fast during the 1973-78 period (tax revenue buoyancy to GDP was 1.2) but current budgetary expenditure over the same - 4 - period increased even more rapidly. The major reasons for the increase in current spending have been wage adjustments of public service employees and growth of subsidies to public enterprises providing social services (public transport, housing, sanitation). In early 1978 the Government introduced measures aimed at reversing the declining trend in public savings by increasing revenues and curbing expenditures. These measures included increases in cor- porate and personal income taxes, in withholding taxes, and in consumption taxes. However, wage increases to public sector employees have been nearly twice as high as originally envisaged by the Government and current expenditures in 1978 are expected to increase almost as much as revenues. Following rapid expansion of public investment in recent years, capital expenditure is likely to level off in 1978 as the Government has attempted to curb new investment for which no external financing has been obtained. While part of the public sector's deficit has been financed by foreign project loans, a portion has also been financed by the domestic banking system including in some years a substantial share by the Central Bank. 13. A lasting improvement in public finances requires a reduction in current expenditure growth. Acceleration in revenue growth is unlikely in the immediate future as the tax effort is already relatively high. Increased tax revenue has been obtained from the income and profit taxes. Adoption of a common external tariff by CARICOM, however, has severely limited customs duties as a source of additional government revenue. Domestic consumption taxes, property taxes and user charges for public services, therefore, appear to be the only sources of additional revenue and the Government does not believe it can introduce changes in these taxes in the immediate future. The Government is aware of the need to strengthen public finances and is at present studying alternatives for reversing the decline of public sector savings. 14. The balance of payments has been under continuous pressure since the early 1970s, reflecting the deterioration in the Government's financial position and foreign market developments. In the wake of the upturn in domestic economic activity after 1975, imports surged. Imports grew rapidly because of accelerating wage increases, expansionary government spending and easily obtainable consumer credit. Adverse movements in the terms of trade as a result of declining sugar prices after their 1975 peak reduced export earnings. As a result, a large current account deficit equivalent to nearly 17% of GDP was registered in 1976. External capital inflows were not suf- ficient to cover the large current account deficit, and by year-end inter- national reserves declined to the equivalent of less than one month's imports of goods and nonfactor services. In order to stem this decline in foreign exchange reserves, the Government introduced measures in 1977 aimed at curb- ing consumer goods imports. Quantitative restrictions on imports of consumer durables were expanded and consumer credit was restricted. Simultaneously foreign exchange earnings from tourism increased rapidly with the result that the current account deficit in the balance of payments declined to 11% of GDP. For 1978, the recorded deficit is expected to decline to about 9% of GDP. This deficit, however, is probably over-stated, as the balance of payments contains large errors and omissions, a substantial proportion of which is assumed to be attributable to tourism. While the 1977 and 1978 deficits represent a substantial improvement over the large 1976 deficit, substantial external borrowing from foreign commercial banks and utilization of IMF compensatory financing had to be used to prevent further loss of foreign exchange reserves. -5- Growth Prospects 15. The economy appears to have the potential to attain growth of about 5% per annum over the next several years. Relatively high rates of growth of tourism and manufacturing are likely to be sustained in the future, but there is also significant growth potential in nonsugar agriculture (fruits and vegetables) and in fisheries. Given the expected composition of this growth, this would make possible a decline in unemployment to under 10% by the early 1980s. In order to sustain such growth over the medium term without an un- desirably large buildup of external debt, however, the Government will have to bring about an increase in national savings and a further reduction in the current deficit of the balance of payments. As in the past, future economic growth will have to be export led and this in turn will depend on the Govern- ment's ability to contain wage increases so that the international competitive- ness of Barbadian labor is maintained. The Government's short-term strategy for coping with balance of payments difficulties will continue to emphasize growth in tourism and export manufacturing, supported by credit and import controls. 16. The Government is currently preparing a five-year development plan for 1979-83 aimed at increasing productivity and at sustaining adequate rates of growth of national income. It is expected that this plan will place high priority on growtht and diversification of exports of goods and services. In tourism, the Governnient's principal objectives are to increase occupancy rates during the summer season and to improve the retained value added of the industry. A reinforced and reorganized export promotion agency is to provide a complementary vehicle! for the promotion and marketing of manufactured products abroad. Agricultural production is to satisfy a growing proportion of domestic demand and stronger linkages to the tourism sector are to be developed, thus reducing the mounting food import bill. 17. The Government's development strategy is based on maintaining a mixed economy with the private sector playing a major role accompanied by active public sector support. Education and manpower training are expected to form an integral part of the Government's program, since the development of skilled manpower wi:Ll help to accelerate growth of industry and non- traditional agriculture. Improvements in physical infrastructure including power-generating capac:Lty are to support the development of the productive sectors of the economy. 18. With a public external debt service ratio of 3.4% in 1977 and debt outstanding and disbursed amounting to US$46 million (10.3% of GDP) at the end of 1977, Barbados has modest external public indebtedness. The current external debt profile is relatively favorable and is expected to continue to be so if the Government moves to reverse the declining trend of public savings and to reduce the large current account deficit in the balance of payments. In light of its moderate debt burden and favorable growth prospects and provided that measures to raise national savings are taken in due course, Barbados may be expected to remain creditworthy for loans on conventional terms. -6- PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS 19. Barbados became a Bank member in 1974. The proposed education project would be the Bank's first lending operation. The current lending program includes also an $8.0 million loan for a proposed tourism development project. In addition, Barbados has benefited from the Bank's lending to the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB). So far, a loan of $2.6 million from IBRD resources was made by the CDB to Barbados in September 1978 for a relatively small industrial development project. 20. The Bank has maintained a continuing dialogue with the Government on its economic policies and development priorities. The Bank organized last June a subgroup of donors under the auspices of the Caribbean Group for Coop- eration in Economic Development to coordinate financial and technical aid to Barbados. At the first meeting of the subgroup in June 1978, multilateral and bilateral donors expressed substantial interest in financing specific priority projects and in providing technical assistance to Barbados. In addition, in light of Barbados' difficulties in the balance of payments and public finances, the Group recommended that the country receive an allocation of US$7 million from the Caribbean Development Facility (CDF). 1/ To date, a balance of payments loan of f 850,000 (US$1.65 million) has been made by the UK, and the US and Canada have pledged assistance of US$1.5 million each within the CDF framework. 21. In the future, the Bank's lending to Barbados either directly or indirectly through the CDB will be mainly directed towards projects for diver- sified agricultural production, power generation and urban development. This is in line with the Government's strategy to reduce the mounting import food bill while satisfying the needs of the local population and of the tourism sector, to improve the living conditions of the urban poor and to increase the present power-generating capacity of the country in order to meet increasing demand requirements. 22. It is estimated that by 1982 the Bank's share in Barbados' public external debt outstanding and disbursed will be about 3%. The Bank's share in the external public debt service will also be about 3%. 1/ The Caribbean Development Facility was established during the First Meet- ing of the Caribbean Group for Cooperation in Economic Development, held at Bank headquarters, June 19-24, 1978. It is a transitional emergency financing facility to cover local costs and cost overruns of development projects in Caribbean countries, including Barbados. It is planned to be phased out over a maximum period of five years. Financing offered within the facility framework is expected to provide over US$100 million during FY79 to the countries of the Caribbean. The major contributors are the US, UK, Canada, Venezuela and the OPEC Special Fund. -7- PART III - THE EDUCATION SECTOR Background 23. The Barbados education system is relatively highly developed. Literacy stands at 99% (1976); over 90% of the labor force has had at least six years of education and 75% had at least nine years. The Government con- siders its well educated labor force as one of its main assets in developing the productive sectors of the economy. The present education system, however, places a high recurrent cost burden on the Government; public expenditures on education reached a high 8.1% of GNP or 22.1% of public sector expendi- tures in 1976, partly because of inefficiencies in the education system. High teacher-student ratios and excessive maintenance costs due to inadequate and obsolescent physical infrastructure are the main factors for the rela- tively high recurrent costs. The Government is committed to take the appro- priate steps to improve efficiency, equity and quality of the education system in conjunction with measures to increase its cost effectiveness. 24. External aid through bilateral and multilateral agencies has been a significant factor in the development in recent years of the education sector in Barbados. In 1972 IDB approved a US$2.8 million loan for the construction and equipment of the Community College; the project has been completed. In 1976 IDB approved a loan of US$6.6 million for rebuilding and expanding the Polytechnic; construction is expected to start in 1979. Out of a total $32 million public investment program in education for 1978-81, the Government is expected to finance about 50%; the IDB, through the loan referred to above, would contribute about 22%, and the proposed Bank loan about 28%. Overview of the Education Sector 25. The Ministry of Education (MOE) has jurisdiction over almost all education activities. The formal education system consists of six years of primary, five to seven years of secondary; and three to five years of higher education. 26. The net enrollment rates are remarkably high--virtually complete registration of the primary school age group and the equivalent of 84% of the relevant secondary school age group. There is no disparity between male and female participation. Promotion and progression rates are very high and the dropout rate is negligible. These impressive achievements have been realized without compulsory educa,tion laws. 27. The majority of the schools, however are inadequate and obsolescent; they do not allow for the effective application of the recently developed, practically oriented curricula that meet the requirements of the Regional Caribbean Examinations Council, and require excessive maintenance costs. They are also the main reason for relatively small class sizes which cause high teacher-student ratios and high recurrent costs. Furthermore, the present system retains the academically less capable children in the primary schools for lack of places in the secondary schools. These children are referred to in the educational system as the "all age tops." The elimination of the "all age tops" is a matter of priority to the Government. 28. The new curricula also make demands upon the content of teacher edu- cation. The Erdiston Teacher Training College is not fully equipped to under- take some of the new types of courses and activities which should become part of the modern education curriculum. Also a small expansion is necessary to increase intake in order to clear the backlog of unqualified teachers in the schools (about 25%), to upgrade, retrain and reorient the present qualified teachers' school principals and education administrators and gradually to introduce a preservice course for new teachers and potential principals. In this respect, advisory services to teachers and tools and facilities to pre- pare their own materials and aids are also necessary. 29. Presently there is too little technical and vocational training in the secondary schools as compared with general education. This imbalance is being partly remedied by two IDB projects: the upper secondary-level Poly- technic which trains skilled workers and provides part-time and nonformal courses, and the post secondary Community College which trains technicians in engineering trades, tourism and business. The Polytechnic project also provides for technical assistance to support the MOE Planning Unit. Manage- ment training has been carried out by the Barbados Institute for Management and Productivity (BIMAP). The activities of BIMAP need to be expanded to meet the demand for additional management and supervisory staff training, and to provide in-plant worker training and technical and advisory services to small- scale enterprises. This together with regional facilities that provide train- ing in agricultural extension, animal health, fisheries and paramedics, and the two IDB-sponsored projects mentioned above are expected to cover adequately most of the foreseeable needs for vocational training. Government's Strategy for Educational Development 30. The Government with technical assistance from other agencies has developed during recent years modern and relevant curricula that are geared to the needs of Barbados and fully meet the requirements of the Regional Caribbean Examination Council. The main objectives of the Government's policy for the development of the education sector are: (a) modernization and redirection of the educational content and the physical facilities of the education system to make it a more productive development tool through greater emphasis on vocational training and on technical, science and other practical studies; (b) the equalization of educational opportunity through extension of education to all, at least up to age 16; and (c) increased training programs tailored to Barbadian industrial and economic development needs. The strat- egy is to achieve these objectives in conjunction with measures to increase the efficiency of the education system and its cost effectiveness. Bank's Role in Education and Training 31. Bank support through this first education project in Barbados focusses on assisting the Government in applying more rapidly and effectively its strategy of combining measures to assure equity and relevant general education and skill training with measures to enhance the cost-effectiveness of the system. This would be achieved by provision of the appropriate facil- ities in which well-trained teachers can effectively apply the modern and relevant curricula. The project aims at replacing the existing facilities and in some cases, at modifying and expanding the existing installations. The execution of the project would introduce quality improvements linked with such cost-effective measures as larger but reasonable class sizes, more economic teacher-student ratios, economic norms and standards in building design and systems, more rational use of resources through improved administrative and organizational practices, and multi-purpose use of all practical facilities. Expansion of existing schools will provide the appropriate facilities for the teaching of practical courses and will increase the intake capacity of the secondary schools enabling them to accommodate the majority of the output of the primary schools, thus almost eliminating the inequitable "all-age tops." 32. In determining the content of the project in line with the above objectives and strategy, account has been taken of the assistance provided by other agencies--IDB in vocational training and the MOE Planning Unit, OAS in curriculum development, and CIDA to BIMAP for advisory services to small-scale enterprises. PART IV - THE PROJECT 33. A report entitled "Staff Appraisal Report on a First Education Project Barbados" (No. 2220b-BB, dated November 20, 1978) is being distributed separately. Annex III contains a timetable of key events in processing the project and a description of the special conditions of the proposed loan. Negotiations for the proposed loan took place in Washington, D.C. on October 25-26, 1978. The Barbaclian delegation was led by Mr. Erskine Rawlins, Chief Education Officer. Objectives and CompositiLon 34. The objectives of the proposed project are to support government policy to redirect the emphasis of the educational content and teaching methodologies in the schools, to remove inequities in the education system, and to initiate cost-effectiveness measures. The project will be the first step toward initiating cost effectiveness measures in the education system through the introduction of functional design of classroom spaces, use of appropriate building materials and systems, school organizational practices, and norms and standards for equipment and furniture (Section 3.01 of Loan Agreement). The class size in the project schools will be designed to accommodate an increased number of students (about 35) which will lead to more economical teacher-student ratios and reductions in recurrent costs. The Government will achieve these targets through a prudent teacher hiring and training policy and the normal attrition of teachers. The project also complements the assistance being provided by other development institutions in the area of institution building, particularly with a view to strengthening the national capability in management and execution of education programs, and in the organization and conduct of nonformal management and in-plant worker training and advisory services to small enterprises. Specifically, the proposed project would comprise: - 10 - (a) construction, furnishing and equipping of ten primary schools. This component will provide about 5,880 student places, which will replace existing places in obsolescent schools. The new facilities include spaces and equipment to facilitate the teaching of the well balanced primary school curriculum which includes elementary science and agriculture, crafts, basic home crafts and health educa- tion. The schools would operate with reasonable class size of about 35 and teacher-student ratio of about 1:29, compared with the present class size of 22 to 30 and a teacher-student ratio of 1:21. The Government has agreed to apply both norms in the project schools as they become operational and to the rest of the system's schools sub- sequently in accordance with a time schedule to be agreed upon with the Bank. (Section 3.04 of Loan Agreement). The Government has also agreed to provide training and employ- ment to qualified primary school teachers for remedial work in each new primary school, to ensure that slow learners are given a chance to make the necessary progress (Section 3.04 of Loan Agreement). (b) construction, furnishing and equipping of expansions to six existing secondary schools. This component will pro- vide facilities for the teaching of science, industrial arts, home economics, agriculture and business courses for some 2,600 student places, of which 1,500 are addi- tional and 1,100 replacement places. In addition, one secondary school which is presently under construction with about 1,250 student places will be furnished and equipped under the project. The additional student places provided by the project will make it possible for the equivalent of about 70% of children presently left behind in the primary schools "all-age tops" to enter secondary schools. The project schools will also help pioneer the move towards a more rational use of resources in the education sector. The Government agreed to operate the project schools with a reasonable class size of about 35 and teacher-student ratio of about 1:23 (Section 3.04 of Loan Agreement), and to undertake appropriate measures, aimed at achieving maximum cost effectiveness through functional design of classroom spaces, use of appropriate building materials and systems, school organizational practices, and norms and standards for equipment and furniture (Section 3.01 of Loan Agreement). (c) construction, furnishing and equipping of the expansion of Erdiston Teacher Training College. This component will provide appropriate facilities to enable the Erdiston Teacher Training College to undertake the function of a teacher education resource center for the continuing edu- cation of practicing teachers, and to train teachers in the practical subjects which now figure prominently in - 11 - the curricula of primary and secondary schools. It would also enable the college to expand its regular and in- service courses for primary and secondary school teachers and accommodate an increased intake of teachers (150 instead of 120 in its regular courses and 200 instead of 180 in its in-service course). The facilities to be pro- vided include a well stocked reference and study library, a a demonstration micro-teaching area, a lecture theater, a well equipped general workshop and a learning-teaching aids design and production area. The Government has agreed to make resources available for the necessary additional staff which are to be appointed in accordance with a time schedule satisfactory to the Bank (Section 3.05 of Loan Agreement). (d) construction, furnishing and equipping of an expansion to the Barbados Institute of Management and Productivity (BIMAP). This component will help establish an in-plant training program and strengthen an advisory services program to small-scale enterprises. These programs are expected to reach about 1,500 workers and 480 middle- management personnel annually. BIMAP would also assist large firms in setting up viable training programs within their own establishments. The Government has agreed to make facilities available to BIMAP from time to time for special short BIMAP training courses (Section 3.06 of Loan Agreement) and to insure that BIMAP would appoint the required additional staf'f and submit annual evaluation reports of BIMAP activities to the Bank beginning in 1981 until completion of the project (Section 3.06 of Loan Agreement). (e) provision of services of architectural consultants and other specialists. This component will provide: about 12 manyears of architectural and other support services to the project unit; fellowships for about 30 manmonths in support of BIMAP for in-plant training, and advisory services to small-scale enterprises, programs; and technical assistance to the MOE to undertake special intensive training courses for key school and MOE administrative staff during 1980, 1981 and 1982 (Sections 3.02 and 3.07 of Loan Agreement). It takes into account the considerable assistance already being provided by other agencies and the fact that Barbados has substantial expertise of its own in the MOE or in other government agencies which can be utilized for the project. The Government has agreed to submit specific proposals for the fellowship program to the Bank for review by June 30, 1979 (Section 3.08 of Loan Agreement); consultant and spe- cialist services will be appointed under terms and conditions acceptable to the Bank (Section 3.02 of Loan Agreement). - 12 - Project Costs and Financing 35. The total project cost is estimated at US$14.5 million, including physical contingencies of US$1.1 million and price contingencies of US$2.3 mil- lion. Physical contingencies amount to 10% for all project components; price contingencies represent an average of 18.4% of the base cost plus physical contingencies. Imported equipment and furniture would be exempt from customs duties and are costed accordingly. Specialist services and fellowships, representing US$0.6 million of total project costs, are estimated at an aver- age of US$34,000 and US$20,000 per manyear, respectively. The proposed Bank loan of US$9 million would finance 62% of the project costs, which represents the equivalent of the estimated foreign exchange costs. The balance of project costs would be borne by the Government. Recurrent Costs 36. The overall impact of the project will result in considerable sav- ings in recurrent costs when compared with the present less efficient system. The recurrent costs generated by the primary and secondary school components of the project would be about 11% less than if the same enrollments would attend schools with the present class sizes and average teacher-student ratios. This savings already takes into account higher nonsalary costs (materials, etc.) in project schools due to the increased practical work in laboratories and workshops. The teacher training component would cause an increase in annual recurrent expenditures of only $80,000 over the 1977-80 level. The expanded activities of BIMAP would double its 1977-78 level of expenditures by 1982. BIMAP, however, expects that the fees charged for services rendered would cover about 90% of the annual recurrent expenditures. The Government would contribute the remaining 10%, which means that the Government contribu- tion would remain at its present level of $40,000 (at 1977 prices). The Government agreed that all equipment, furniture and buildings financed under the proposed project would be adequately maintained and repaired and that it would take all necessary steps to make funds available in the event of any shortfall in revenues needed to cover BIMAP's operational expenses (Section 3.01 of Loan Agreement). Project Implementation 37. The project would be implemented by a Project Unit which would be established within the MOE. A full time Project Manager acceptable to the Bank will be responsible for the implementation of the project and will report directly to the Permanent Secretary of the MOE (Section 3.03 of Loan Agreement). The Project Unit would include, besides the Project Manager, three architects, one quantity surveyor, one structural engineer, one accountant and adequate support staff (Schedule 5 of Loan Agreement). The Curriculum Development Section and the operational divisions of the MOE would provide the Project Manager with assistance on educational matters including preparation of equip- ment lists as required (Section 3.03 of Loan Agreement). The BIMAP component would be executed by the Executive Trustee of BIMAP with the assistance of consultants procured through the construction division of the Barbados Indus- trial Development Corporation to which BIMAP is closely connected. All - 13 - accounting, however, would be the responsibility of the Project Manager. The Government has agreed to provide suitable premises and make the rerjiitred personnel available to the Project Unit (Section 3.03 of Loan Agreement). 38. All sites for the project schools would be acquired by March 31, 1979 (Section 3.12 of Loan Agreement). Design drawings, equipment and furni- ture lists and all contractual documents and procedures would be submitted for Bank approval before finalization and procurement action (Section 3.10 of Loan Agreement). An implementation schedule has been prepared which the Project Manager would update regularly. Project schools would be designed to require the minimum routine maintenance. The Government would prepare a maintenance handbook to assure proper maintenance of the project facilities. Procurement 39. Contracts for civil works and the procurement of furniture and equipment would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank guidelines except that civil works contracts of under $100,000 and furniture and equipment which cannot be grouped into packages of at least US$50,000 would be procured on the basis of local competitive bidding procedures acceptable to the Bank. The total cost of furniture and equipment procured in this manner will not in the aggregate exceed US$300,000 (equivalent to about 12% of the estimated total cost of furniture and equipment). For civil works, the aggregate amount to be procured in this manner will not exceed US$500,000. In the case of procurement under international competitive bidding procedures, domestic manufacturers tendering under international procedures would receive a margin of preference of 15% of the c.i.f. cost or the applicable customs duty, whichever is lower, and regional preferences for other members of the Caribbean Common Market (CARICOM) would be limited to 15% of the c.i.f. price of nonregional goods or the difference in tariffs, which- ever is lower. Disbursements 40. Disbursements of the proceeds of the proposed loan would be made for (a) 50% of total expenditures for civil works: (b) 100% of foreign expendi- tures for imported, or 85% of expenditures for locally procured furniture and equipment; and (c) 100% of total expenditures for technical assistance and professional fees. 41. Retroactive financing not exceeding US$200,000 would cover expendi- tures incurred after August 1, 1978 to equip the new premises of the School Buildings and Maintenance Section and for consultant services incurred in bringing the project to an advanced stage of readiness. Benefits and Risks 42. The project would (a) provide a more effective learning-teachiTlg environment for almost 6,000 primary and over 7,000 secondary school students in the schools (representing about 16% of total enrollments in 1935 in primary and 35% in general secondary education); (b) redress through the program for - 14 - secondary school expansion inequities in the education system by eliminating the primary "all-age tops" to which over 3,000, mainly rural children, are presently relegated; (c) develop the model, norms and standards, to increase the efficiency of the education system and its cost effectiveness; (d) support institution-building in the MOE (teacher education, administration training, management and execution capability); (e) broaden the range of BIMAP services, particularly in the area of in-plant training and advisory services to small- scale enterprises benefiting 1,500 workers and 480 middle-management personnel annually. Technical assistance inclaided in the project would help ensure timely and efficient project implementation. 43. The major risk is that there may initially be considerable resistance by teachers' unions and parents to the Government targets for an economic class size and teacher-student ratios. The resistance, if it materializes, should be overcome in time by: (a) the gradual attrition of teachers; (b) provision of suitable physical facilities; (c) the gradual introduction of larger class sizes; and (d) the realization among teachers and parents that the program will not result in any deterioration of education quality. Evaluation 44. The Government has agreed to discuss its educational policies and plans annually with the Bank and send to the Bank within six months of the closing date of the loan account a full completion report providing an assess- ment of all components of the project, their results and the experience gained during implementation (Section 3.10 of Loan Agreement). PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 45. The draft Loan Agreement between Barbados and the Bank, and the Report of the Committee provided for in Article III, Section 4(iii) of the Articles of Agreement are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. Special conditions of the project are listed in Annex III, Section 3. 46. I am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank. PART VI - RECOMMENDATION 47. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments December 5, 1978 ANNEX 1 - 15 - Page 1 of 5 BARBADOS - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET BARBADOS REIERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AVERAGES LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KK.) - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) TOTAL 0.4 SAME SAMlE NEXT HIGHER AGRICULTURAL 0.4 NOST RECENT GEOGPRIC INCOKE INCOME 1960 Lb 1970 /b EST7ET lb EEGION le GROUP /d GROUP Le GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 400.0 970.0 1760.0 1066.7 1796.4 2839.0 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (RILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 375.0 1104.0 1078.0 911.1 1525.0 2376.4 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS TOTAL POPULATION, MID-YEAR (MILLIONS) 0.23 0.24 0.25 , URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) .. 3.7 .. 57.9 52.2 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KM. 538.0 464.0 574.0 25.6 27.6 55.8 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 676.0 649.0 676.0 77.6 116.4 83.6 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 38.3 37.0 37.0 42.0 34.8 40.0 15-64 YRS. 55.3 54.7 55.0 52.2 56.0 55.3 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 6.4 8.3 .8.0 3.7 5.7 3.8 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 0.9 If 0.2 If 0.7 If 2.7 1.6 2.9 URBAN .. .. .. 4.3 3.4 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER TNOUSABD) 32.2 26.9 18.7 35.8 27.0 31.7 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 12.0 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.9 7.9 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 2.3 1.4 1.5 2.6 1.9 1.6 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. .. .. USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. .. 15.1 19.3. FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1970-100) 98.4 100.0 73.3 102.1 103.8 114.7 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OP CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 110.0 94.0 133.0 103.9 110.4 113.4 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 65.0 73.0 LE 82.5 60.3 77.7 89.9 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PU,LSE .. 47.0 LI 52.3 26.7 22.2 48.0 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 3.5 2.2 1.3 8.7 1.9 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 62.7 67.6 69.1 62.6 63.0 60.2 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) 61.0 46.3 37.7 56.9 38.2 22.1 ACCESS To SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 98.0 100.0 60.7 67.7 83.0 URBAN .. 95.0 100.0 78.0 83.5 100.0 RURAL .. 100.0 100.0 34.9 41.5 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (P'ERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 100.0 100.0 61.1 70.3 57.8 URBAN *- 100.0 100.0 80.3 90.7 99.3 RURAL *- 100.0 100.0 25.4 38.3 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 2800.0 /h 1890.0 1450.0 1899.3 1310.8 976.9 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 650.0 430.0 420.0 1220.1 849.2 676.1 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 170.0 100.0 110.0 422.3 275.4 325.8 URBAN 70.0 90.0 258.2 129.9 250.0 RURAL *- 110.0 /i 170.0 /I 2281.6 965.9 770.0 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. 9.0 11.0 25.6 18.9 18.7 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL 4.0 3.9 .. 5.2 3.9 URBAN .. .. .. RURAL .. .. .. AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL 1.2 1.0 .. 2.0 0.9 URBAN 1.2 1.0 *- 2.1 0.8 RURAL .. .. .. 2.7 1.0 ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENST OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. 59.0 .. 51.2 59.2 URBAN *- *- *- 77.3 78.0 RURAL .. .. .. 12.8 12.5 - 16 - ANNEX 1 Page 2 of 5 BIAUADOS - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET BARBADOS REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AVERAGES - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) SAMF SAME NEXT HIGHER MOST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOME INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE lb REGION /c GROUP /d GROUP /e EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 96.0 105.0 117.0 /k 103.5 97.6 104.1 FEMALE 96.0 107.0 116.0 -It 102.9 87.4 120.3 SECONDARY: TOTAL 40.0 66.0 59.0 /k 37.2 47.8 44.7 FEMALE 34.0 60.0 61.0 /t 37.9 42.6 46.0 VOCATIONAL (PERCENT OF SECONDARY) 5.0 7.0 7.0 14.7 22.7 18.7 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 40.0 33.0 .. 32.9 25.4 30.6 SECONDARY 29.0 27.0 20.0L/ 17.8 24.9 16.3 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 94.0 97.0 99.0 74.9 96.3 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 35.0 82.0 79.0 26.9 32.3 53.4 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 150.0 347.0 477.0 173.5 201.9 195.5 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION *- 63.0 203.0 69.4 97.7 108.4 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 85.0 90.0 98.0 72.8 70.9 108.0 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 7.0 5.0 7.4 4.3 4.4 EMPLOYMENT TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 90.0 90.0 100.0 FEMALE (PERCENT) 41.8 40.0 39.8 21.4 17.4 26.9 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 26.0 20.0 18.0 37.8 38.4 25.7 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 27.1 31.6 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 39.6 37.7 40.0 30.8 33.7 40.1 MALE 51.3 48.3 50.3 47.2 50.8 55.8 PEMALE 30.2 28.4 30.6 13.2 12.6 24.7 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.6 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY NIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 19.8 /f *- 28.9 20.2 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 44.0 f .. 57.7 47.9 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 6.8 /i .. 3.2 3.2 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS .. 18.6 ft .. 10.7 13.7 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 251.9 RURAL .. .. .. 200.6 157.9 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. 403.1 448.8 RURAL .. .. 320.0 258.0 313.1 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. .. 24.8 23.2 RURAL .. .. 45.0 65.2 54.5 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The adjusted group averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric mans, excluding the extreme values of the indicator and the most populated country in each group. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1973 and 1977. /c Latin America & Caribbean; fd Upper Middle Income ($1136-2500 per capita, 1976); /e High Income (over $2500 per capita, 1976); If Due to migration, population growth rate is lower than rate of natural increase; L/ 1966; lb 1962; fi Government establlsbmnts only; b Income recinient. /k These data are for 1974. Corresponding data for 1976 are; 106, 105, 94, 81 and 17, respectively. - 17 - ANNEX 1 DEFINITIONS OF SOCIAL INDICATORS Page 3 of 5 H=o The adjusted group averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric means, excluding the extreme values of the indicator and the Most populated country io each group Coverage of co-ntries among the indicators depends an availability at data and is not unif.ur. Due to lack of data, group averages for Capital Surplsa Oil Exporters and indicators of access to water end eacreta disposal, housing, income distribution and poverty ace simple population-weighted geometric means without the exclusion of extreme values. LAND AREA (thouand q. km) Poulaionr hospital bed - total, urban, and rurxl - Population (total, Tltal - Tctal aurface ares otopriniog laod ara and inland water. urban, and carat) divid dby their respective number of hospital bcds Agricultural - Most recent estimate of agricultural area used temporarily available in public and private general and specialized hospital and re- or permanently for crops, pastures, market and kitchen gardens or to habilitation centers. Hospitals are establishments permanently staffed by lie fallow. at least one physician. Establishnents providing principally cu. todial care ere net included. Rural hospitals, however, inclode health sod medi- GNP PER CAPITA (USS) - GNP per capita estirat.a so current market prices, sal .eaters not permanently staffed by i physician (but by a nedicel a- calculated by same convernion method an World Bank Atlas (1975-77 basis); sistant, duree, midwife, etc.) which offer in-patient accomnodation and 1960, 1970. and 1977 data. provide a limited range of medical facilities. Admisson per hospital bed - Totel number of admiasions to or di-charges ENERGY CONSUOIPTION PER CAPITA - Annual co..umptios of comeercial energy from hospitals divided by the number of beds. (coal and lignite, petroleum, natural gsa and hydro-, nuclear and geo- thermal electricity) in kilogruous of coal equivalent per capita. 'OUSING Avereas sia of household (persona per household) - total, urban, and rural- POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS A household consists of a group of individuals who share living quarters Total population. mid-year (=illionr) - As of July 1; if not available, and their main meals. A boarder or lodger may or may not be included in average of two end-year es-ipare: 1960, 1970, and 1977 data the hous hold far atatietocal purposex. Statistical dafinitiona of house- Urban population (percent of total) - Ratio of urban to total popula- hold vary. tion; different definitions of urban areas may affect comparability Average nutber of persons par room - total, urban, and rural - Average nun- of data among -ountrie.s bar of persons per room in all, urban, and rural occupied conventional Population density dwellings, respectively. Dwellinga exclude non-permanent structures and Per n. kh. - Mid-year population par square kilomatar (100 hectares) unoccupied parts. of total area Access to electricity (percent of dwellings) - total, urban, and rural - Per sq. kh. agriculture land - Cooputed as above far agricultural land Conventinnal dwellings with electricity in living quarters as percentage only. of total, urban, gnd rural dwellings respectively Population age structure (percent) - Children (0-l yeses), working-age (15-64 years), nd ratir-d (65 yeaer sad over) as percentages of mid- EDUCATION year population. Adjusted anrollment ratios Population growth rote (percent) - total, and ufban - Compound annual Primary school - total, and feale - Total and female enrollment of all ages growth rates of total and urban oid-year populations for 1950-60, at the primary level as percentages of respectively primary school-age 1960-70, and 1970-75 populatins; normally includes children aged 6-11 years but adjusted for Cruds birth rate (per thou=n. d) - Acnual live births per thoosand of diffe-enr lengths of primary eduoation; for countrias with univers-l adu- mid-year population; ten-year arithmetic averages ending in 1960 and cation enrollment ay exceed 100 percent since sone pupils are below or 1970 and five-year average ending in 1975 far nost recent estimate, above the official school age. Crude death rate (per thousand) - Annual deaths per thousa,nd of mid- Secondary school - total, and female - Computed as above; secondary educa- year population; ten-year arithmetic averages ending in 1960 and 1970 tion requires at least four years of approved prinary inatruction; pro- and fiv .yesr avarago ending io 1975 for moat racent erimate. videm gxneral vocational, or te-her training inotructions for pupils Gross reprduction rate - Avsrage number of daughters a woman will bear usually of 12 to 17 years of age; correspondence courses are generally in her normal ceproductive period if she eoperiences present age- excladed. specific fertility rates; sunally five-year averages ending in 1960, Vocational enrollment (percent of secondary) - Vocational institutiona in- 1970, end 1975 clude technical, industrial, or other programs which operate independently Family plannina -acceptors, annul (thousands) - Annual number of or as deparnetcnt of secondary institutions. acceptorn of birth-control devices under -uspice- of national family Pupil-teacher ratio - primary and secondary - Total students enrolled It planning program. primry sad secondary levels divided by numbers of teachers in the corre- Pamily planning - users (percent of married womDe) - Percentage Pt pa.nding levels. mrried women of child-bearing age (15-44 years) wis ose birth-control Adult literacy rate (poroent) - Literate adults (able to read and write) as devices to all married woman in -oee age grou-p a percentage oE total dult popultion aged 15 yers and over. FOOD AND NUTRITION CONSUtPTION tndex of food production per capita (1970-100) - Index number of per Pasesnger cars (per thaussod population) - Passenger -ern comprise matar cars capita annual production of all food commodit:ies. seating loes than eight perions; excludes ambulances, hearses and military Per capita supply of caloriss (Perct of rensirements) - Computed from vehicles. energy equivalent of net food supplies availalble in country per capita Radia receivers (per thousand population) - All types of receiver- foc radio per day. Available supplies romprise domestil production, imports less broadcasts to general public per thousand of population; excludes unlicenned exports, and chooges in stock. Nlt supplimo occlude animal feed, seeds, receivers in countries and in years when registration of radio sets was in quantities used in food processing, and losI..e is distribution. Re- effect; data for recent years may not be comparable since most countries quirements were estimated by FAO based on phyoiological needs for nor- abolished licensing mal activity sod health considering environmen.tal temperature, body TV receivers (per thousand populatien) - TV receivers for broadcast to genera weights, aSge sod .s. dintributions of population, and allowing 10 per- public per thnaeend population; excludes unlicensed TV receivers in coun- enat for waste at household level, tries and in years when registration of TV sets was in effect. Per capita supply of protein (grams per day) - Protein content of per Nwerapser circulation (per thousand population) - Shows the average ciccula- capita set supply of food per day. Net supply of food is defined as tion of "daily general interest newspaper", defined an a periodical publi- above. Requirements for all countries establishad by USDA provide for cation devoted primarily to recording gsneral news. It in considered to a minimum allowance of 60 gramn of total protein per day and 20 grams be "daily" if it appears at least four tioes a wask. of animal and pulse protein, of which 10 grams should be animal protein. Cinema annual attendsace per capita per year - Based an the nusber of tickets These standards are lower than thone of 75 gramo of total protein and sold during the year, including adaissions to drive-in cinemas and mobile 23 grans of animal protein as an average for the world, proposed by units. FAO in the Third World Food Survey. Per capita protein supply from animal and pulse - rotein supply of food EhPLOYtENT derived from sUinals aud pulsen is grass par day. TItal labor force Ctb.axanda) - Econemically active persons. including arned Child (ages 1-4) mortality rate (per thousand) - Annual deaths pee thous- forces and unemployed but excluding housewives, students, etc. Defii- and in age group 1-4 years, to children in this age group. tions in various countries are not comparable. Female (percent) - Female labor force as percentage of total lsbor force, bEALTH Agriculture (percent) - Labor force in farming, forestry, hunting and fishing Life ee-traoy at birth (years) - Averoer numler of years of life as percentage of total labor force. remaioing at birth: usually five-year averages ending in 1960, 1970, Industry (ner.ent) - Labor force in mining, cos-truction, manufacturing and and 1975. electricity, water and gas as percentage of total labor force. Infant mortality rate (per thousand) - Annual ceaths of infants under Participatio, rate (percent) - total, male, and female - Total, male, and one year of age per thousand live birhts. female labor force as percentages of their respective populations. Acoons to safe wate (er ..nt of population) - total. uban, and -ural - Th-e are ILO'. odjusted participatieo rates refl-etiog.sge-nee Number of people (total, urban, and rural) with reasonable access to structure of the population. and tong time trend. safe water supply (includes treated surface watecs or untreated but Economic denedensy ratio - Ratio of population under 15 and 65 and over to uncontasniated water ouch as that fron protected bareholes, springs, the labor force in age group of 15-64 years. and sanitary oells) as percentages of their respective populations. In an urban area a public fountain or standp,st located not mcre INCOHE DISTR'UTION tbas 200 mleters froml a bouse may be coasidered as being within rea- Peroencaa of private ine (both in cash and kind) received by richest 5 sonable sccess of that house. In rural areas reasonable accesa would percent, richest 20 peracnt, poorest 20 percent, and Poorest 40 percent inply that the housew.ife or members of the household do not have to of households. spend a dinproportionate part of the day in fetching the family's water seeds. POVERTY TARGET GROUPS Access to emcreta disposal (percent of PoPulation) - total, urban, and Estimated absolute poverty income level (US$ per capita) - urban and rural - rural - Nurber of people (total, urban, and rural) served by excreta Absolute poverty income level is that income levei below which a minimal disposal as percentages of their respective populstiron. Enereta nutritismelly adequate diet plus essential non-food requirements is not disposal may include the collection and disposal, with or without affordable. treatment, of human snoreta and waste-water by water-borne systanm Estimated relative poverty income level (USS per capita) - urban and rural - or the use of pit privies and similar installations. Relative poverty incoe level is that income level less than one-third Population per physician - Population divided by sntber of practicing per capita personal incme of the country. physicians qualified from a medical school at university level. Estiated Population balb povertv income level (percent) - urban and rural - Populotion per ouruing person - Population divided by number of Percent of populatiem (urban and rural) who are either "absolute poor" or praiticiag male and female graduate nurses, practical nurses, and "relative poor" ohihser is greater. assistant nurses. Ecomomic and Social Data Division Economic Analysis and Projections Deperteent - 18 - ANNEX I BARADOS Page 4 of 5 ECONCHIC DRVXLOPMD DATA (in 11$ U llion) Average Annual Actual Eat. Growth Rate tot. 1970-72 1974 1975 1976 1977 Est. 1975-78 1976 1977 1978 Average NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Constant 1976 US$ million As percentage of GDP Gross domestic produot 344.7 363.6 369.6 394.0 414.9 437.2 4.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 Gain. from term, of trade -11.3 32.5 48.8 -- -21.5 -15.4 - - -5.2 _3.5 Gross dosmetic income 333.4 396.1 418.4 394.0 393.4 421.8 1.6 100.0 94.8 96.5 Imports (including NFS) 308.2 277.3 260.4 284.3 284.9 308.1 2.7 72.1 68.7 70.5 Exports (import capacity) 226.2 222.5 221.9 212.0 237.9 261.2 4.1 53.8 57.3 59.7 Consumption 337.3 363.7 379.8 382.8 348.8 363.0 - 97.1 84.1 83.0 Iovestment 78.0 87.2 77.1 83.5 91.6 105.7 4.9 21.2 22.1. 24.2 Domeatic saigs -4.0 32.4 38.6 11.2 44.6 58.8 16.1 2.8 10.7 13.4 National S-viogs 4.6 30.2 35.5 19.6 51.5 63.6 20.4 5.0 12.4 14.6 MERCNANDISE TRADE Current US$ million As percootago of total Imports Consumer goods 57.5 51.6 51.6 59.9 64.2 69.0 7.5 25.2 23.6 22.3 Intermediate goods (exci. fuels) 30.3 54.6 55.5 61.5 71.0 80.0 10.0 25.8 26.1 25.8 Fuels and lubricants 7.6 15.5 23.1 20.1 18.1 20.0 6.6 8.4 6.7 6.5 Capital goods 31.9 39.3 44.8 47.0 58.2 73.0 16.7 19.7 21.4 23.5 Miscellaneous .. 43.0 41.7 49.6 60.1 68.0 12.1 20.9 22.2 21.9 Total m-ehandis. imports (o.t.f.) 127.3 204.0 216.7 238.1 271.6 310.0 110 100.0 100.0 100.0 Expor ts Suger 14.1 25.4 46.6 23.5 25.3 24.7 -0.7 30.8 27.8 23.8 Clothing 2.3 9.0 13.3 15.2 18.5 22.0 25.0 19.9 20.4 21.1 Other manufactures 9.9 12.9 12.9 17.8 18.0 32.0 25.6 23.4 19.8 30.8 Other 15.2 20.0 21.6 19.7 29.1 25.3 6.1 25.9 32.0 24.3 Total merchandise exports (f.o.b.) 41.5 67.3 94.4 76.2 90.9 104.0 11.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 1976= 100 Goods sod NFS trade indices Export price index 47.1 100.5 126.9 100.0 103.4 112.3 2.8 - - - Import price ilden 49.3 85.8 99.0 100.0 112.8 118.9 8.5 - - - Terms of trade index 95.5 117.1 128.2 100.0 91.7 94.4 - VALUE ADDED BY SECTOR Annual data at 1976 prices and exchange rate Agriculture 44.4 41.1 40.3 43.7 43.7 40.0 -0.7 12.1 11.7 10.3 Industry a/ 59.4 64.4 63.4 73.6 77.0 80.2 5.6 20.8 20.7 20.7 Other 196.2 234.0 233.5 237.7 251.5 266.9 3.3 67.1 67.6 69.0 Total GDP factor cost 35 T3f9.5 337.2 354.0 372.2 387.1 3.3 1700.0 100. 100.0 PUBLIC FINANCE Annual data at current US$ million As percentage of GDP (Central Government) bi Current receipts 51.8 87.8 110.2 117.0 131.4 155.0 15.3 29.7 29.5 30.3 Current expenditures 46.9 77.0 85.3 105.8 120.8 143.2 16.8 26.9 27.1 28.0 BCdgetry Govinms 4.9 10.8 24.9 11.2 10.6 11.8 . 2.8 4 2.3 Central GsvirDnt CAp. expend. g/ 9.5 18.4 Kn0 30.3 41.3 41.8 22.9 7.7 9.3 8.2 Savings, consolidated public sector .. 6.4 23.4 11.3 12.0 13.7 . 2.9 2.7 2.7 Capitol expend., cons. public sector .. 17.0 23.8 30.7 42.0 42.7 25.9 7.8 9.4 8.4 DETAIL OF PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT As percentage of total SELECTED INDICATORS 1965-70 1975-77 PROCBAM AND FINANCING Actual Planned (average for period shown) Agriculture, forestry and fishing Average ICOR 2.75* 4.83 Miming and quarrying Import elasticy 1.06** 0.21 Manufacturing and processing Marginal donestic savings rate .. 0.24 Other Marginal national savings rate .. 0.41 Total expenditures 100.0 100.0 * 1967-70, *1 1966-70 Financing Publis sectr s-vings. 31.6 32.1 External sources 28.1 43.0 Other 403 4 Total financing 100.0 100 Value added per worker LABOR FORCE AND OUTPUT PER WOREER Total Labor Porce (1976 prices and exchange raten) In thouuands 7 of total Growth rate an 7 of evers a 1970 1976 1970 -1976 1971.76 970 1976 1970 1976 Agriculture 14.0 8.9 17.1 9.8 -7.8 3471 4798 99.4 110.8 Mining .. 0.4 .. 0.4 .. .. 5250 121.2 Industry 24.0 22.0 29.3 24.2 -1.5 2413 3182 69.1 73.5 Services 44.0 59.7 53.6 65.6 5.2 4084 3834 117.0 88.5 Total/average 82.0 91.0 10.0 100.O 1.6 3491 4330 100.0 100.0 a/ Includes mining, manfacturlog, construction, and electricity, ga, and water. h/ Includes National Insuranca System ad Special Funds administered by the Central Government. c/ Including capital transfers to rest of public sector. Pege 5 of 5 BARBADOS 8ALANCE OF PAYMENTS, EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE AND DY9T (USS mlli.on t current prices) Actual 9 Et. 1974 1973 i916 1977 STAhy BAWANCE OF PAYMENTS EOpor-e (including NFS) 191.0 219.6 211.8 Z68.2 313.2 I,por t (I l.dic MrS) 237.9 Z57.8 264.3 371.3 366.3 Rei our1ee,te(7. bn I4 ._38.2 -72.5 _53.i _ 53.i FPator aervicee (-et) .8.3 .10.0 4.3 -8.7 _11.4 Inte r.. on publit d bt (-2.5) (-2.3) (-1.9) (.1.9) (_3.2) Other (net) (.5.8) (-7.7) (-2.4) (.6.8) C-2T Current t-an-ferO (net) 7.3 7.0 12.7 16.1 17.0 Balance onn cerent account 47 .9 -41.2 -64.1 45.7 47.5 Net public disburseeants 0.6 _0.2 3.9 16.9 16.8 e3... dioburemaents _ (L.8__(1.5) (5.7) (23.9)_ (21.2) Amortization (-1.2) (.1.7) (-1.8) (-7.0) (-4.4) Net private * ctor invet-tsnt 5.9 5.3 6.2 4.7 6.0 Capital t-nasetion n.e.i. 45.2 53.8 36.7 29.7 37.2 Change. in reserve (_inc ese) -3.8 -17.7 17.3 -5.6 -12.5 (in U million) SEANT 8880 10.88 CCN94TThE8TS 2EXTERNAL hEPT AND DEBT SERVICE 1Acl S Eat. (offiial grant and grat-lt-le) 9 + (public ond. 6 long-term 1ane) ldFD - _ _ - - Public debt IDA l b " - _ Outstanding debt at nd periOd 26.7 26.3 30.0 66.0 62.8 Other multlater-a 9.1 2.3 9.7 12.5 . Out:taoding dtbt at beginhing 25.8 26.7 26.3 30.0 46.0 Governeents (bilat..el) - 3.0 - 10_0 I Interact on public debt 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 3.2 S Scpplierr 1.6 - - . Repayment on public debt 1.2 1.7 1.8 7.0 4.4 Privat. banks - - 1.5 5.7 10.0 Total public debt tervice 3.7 4.0 3.7 8.9 7.6 Donds~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Other debt service (n t) .. ... puboic loans n.i. __ Total debt *ervie. (net) .. Tetal public N & Lr 1losoe 5.3 Z i8t, 1 Eurden on export earnintgs (7. Outstanding and diebkureed 8 LPB3LIC D5EIST a oŁ ileembr 31. 1977 Public debt servie 2.0 1.9 1.8 3.4 2.5 (repapabS in tore26n eurencJ) 0 m15il. Pereent Total debt service ps foreign IIINID _ _i*ns etcest .. ...... lDA- OtAer multilatera7 15.2 Average trme of public debt Govermsent. 19.5 42.4 Inteesat a. '. prior year 9.7 8.6 7.2 6.3 7.0 Supplisre 1.0 2.2 Amortizctin an 7. prior year 4.7 6.4 6.8 23.3 9.6 Pvt-to banke 18.5 40.2 loadS . 1DBD debt eutstanding 6 diabursed - - - - - Public debt- t.s.i. . 2IBRD as 1 public debt n-te. 6 di.. Total public M LT inan 46.0 100.0 188RD as 2 public debt outetanding and disbursed service- IDA debt outstatnding 4 diabursed IDA Ce 7. public debt out.. & die. . - - IDA e 7. public debt ootstaldlng and dioburoed -erv-c- 1/ Percent of xport. of good. nd N2S net of factor ervices. - 20 - ANNEX II STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN BARBADOS A. Statement of Bank loans as of November 30, 1978 None B. Statement of IFC investments as of November 30, 1978 None C. Projects in execution None - 21 - ANNEX III Page 1 BARBADOS -- FIRST EDUCATION PROJECT SUPPLEMENTARY PROJECT DATA SHEET Section I: Timetable of Key Events (a) Project Preparation (i) Unesco Sector Study February 1978 (ii) Identification 03/17/78 (iii) Preparation of Loan Request Initiated 05/08/78 (b) Project Preparation Agencies (i) Ministry of Finance and Planning ) with assistance by (ii) Ministry of Education ) IBRD/Unesco coop- erative program (c) Appraisal Mission Departure 07/03/78 (d) Completion of Negotiations 10/26/78 (e) Loan Effectiveness Planned 3/30/79 Section II; Special Bank Implementation Actions None Section II_: Special Conditions The Government has agreed that: (a) norms and standards regarding agreed class size and teacher-student ratios would be applied in project schools at latest in the school session immediately after which projec:t works have been completed, and gradually in the general education system as a whole as the physical facil- ities make it practicable (paras 34(a), 34(b)); (b) specialist remedial teachers would be trained and one appointed to each of the project schools (para 34 (a)); (c) resources would be made available to Erdiston Teacher Training College for the appointment of additional staff (para 34(c)); (d) appointment of additional staff to BIMAP would be made on an agreed time schedule and that annual evaluation reports would be submitted to the Bank (para 34(d)); - 22 - ANNEX III Page 2 (e) agreement would be reached between MOE and BIMAP by June 30, 1980 on the use of MOE facilities from time to time for special short BIMAP training programs (para 34(d)); (f) intensive training courses would be organized for key school personnel and education administrators (para 34(e)); (g) arrangements acceptable to the Bank for contracting spe- cialist services and carrying out the fellowship program would be completed by June 30, 1979 (para 34(e)); (h) design drawings, equipment and furniture lists and all contractual documents would be presented for Bank approval prior to bidding (para 38); (i) all sites for the project schools would be acquired by March 31, 1979 (para 38); (j) provision would be made for timely and adequate budgetary allocations to meet annual requirements for operating costs of the project institutions, including BIMAP, and satisfactory maintenance of project schools (para 36); (k) the Project Unit would be adequately staffed, funded and equipped for efficient operation by June 30, 1979. The Curriculum Development Section and the operational divi- sions of MOE would provide the Project Manager with assistance on education matters, as required (para 37); and (1) the borrower would keep the Bank informed of progress in the attainment of the major educational objectives and of any major policies or plans formulated by the borrower (para 44). IBRD 13839 SEPTEMSE9 1978 80, 710 North Point 3,~'' A TLANTIC , 4f OCEA N / <~~~~~~\ tS o S /S °~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 400| CRA8HILLF / />,' \ ., , > 4 KMS. L 0 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~400 -DOMINICAN MILES 21 20 ~~~~~~~~~REP.2 PIE CORNER HAITI PUERTO RICO ST LUCYJAMAICA ANn - Caribbean Sea } / _ ~~~~-- / u bbean BARBADO5 CLINKETT - _ / -~~~~~~ ~PANAMA 1 /1 > \ - <;, iC^ncl SO UT H AMERICA SPEIGHTS- ST P T ER MIL` RELPLAINE MOWN n L ~~SAAMPSF ˘ ZT C HILLABY / CATTLEWS BATHSHEBA 0 PLUMTR EJ > S-(IWELCHA4 / \ Y /' ~~~~~~~~COLLE 4A HOLETOWN ST THO A Ragged Pan tr Y 9 ll 0 / a } ST.JJHN ,>Rggeo'Pon RAZ\HT CRANE O ISETON six FIRST EDUCATiON PROJECT o PRIMAffY SCWLOWRS * SECONDARY S>tNDOL$ |* TEACHE!:T CRANE A IND>USTRIAL TRA^INI I-Ti eehsbenpeaeiyteW,d ak.safacuisi o h onen M AER TNS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~of th rtadr f the rmport to w,hi o tehd Th deonntos edad h B3EAC HES affihaee en. s jdumgrent oun thei l f// stabus of any trrito,y or any endorse,ment or BIGtOR ROALS - - -- PA.RISH 30J3AEtISO -* - INTERNATIONAL PUNDAROES 0 1 2 3 4 S I I I I I I MILES