Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD3684 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT PAPER ON A PROPOSED ADDITIONAL CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF EUR 41.3 MILLION (US$50.0 MILLION EQUIVALENT) A PROPOSED ADDITIONAL GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 34.8 MILLION (US$50.0 MILLION EQUIVALENT) AND A PROPOSED GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$30.0 MILLION FROM THE MULTI-DONOR TRUST FUND FOR THE SAHEL ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAM TO THE REPUBLIC OF NIGER FOR THE NIGER ADAPTIVE SAFETY NET PROJECT 2 February 16, 2021 Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice Western and Central Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective January 31, 2021) Currency Unit = EUR, US$ EUR 0.824= US$1 SDR 0.694 = US$1 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Soukeyna Kane Regional Director: Dena Ringold Practice Manager: Jehan Arulpragasam Task Team Leaders: Snjezana Plevko, Mahamane Maliki Amadou ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 3N Nigerien Nourish Nigerien ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Data AF Additional Financing ASP Adaptive Social Protection ASP2 Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 National Office for Environmental Studies and Impact Evaluation (Bureau d'Evaluation BEEEI Environnementale et des Etudes d'Impacts) CCA Food Crisis Unit (Cellule Crises Alimentaires) CA Climate Adaptation CFS Safety Net Unit (Cellule des Filets Sociaux) CfW Cash for Work CH Harmonized Framework (Cadre Harmonisé) COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease CPF Country Partnership Framework DA Designated Account DN National Framework for the Prevention and Management of Food Crisis (Dispositif National de Prévention et de Gestion des Catastrophes et des Crises Alimentaires ) DPO Development Policy Operation DRM Disaster Risk Management ECF Extended Credit Facility ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework EUR Euro EWS Early Warning System FAO United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization FM Financial Management GDP Gross Domestic Product GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism GoN Government of Niger High Authority of Personal Data Protection (Haute Autorité à la Protection des Données à HAPDP Caractère Personnel) IDA International Development Association IDP Internally Displaced Person IGA Income Generating Activity IMF International Monetary Fund IPF Investment Project Financing M&E Monitoring and Evaluation Ministry of Employment, Work, and Social Protection (Ministère de l’Emploi, du Travail et de MEWSP la Protection Sociale) Ministry of Humanitarian Action and Disaster Management (Ministère de l’Action MHADM Humanitaire et de la Gestion des Catastrophes) MIS Monitoring and Information System Niger Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (Projet d’Appui aux Réfugiés et aux PARCA Communautés d’Accueil) PDO Project Development Objective PEJIP Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project PIU Project Implementation Unit PMP Pest Management Plan PMT Proxy Means Test PPSD Project Procurement Strategy for Development PRA Prevention and Resilience Allocation REDISSE Regional Epidemic and Diseases Surveillance in West Africa RPF Resettlement Policy Framework SASPP Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program SCD Systematic Country Diagnostics SDR Special Drawing Rights SNP Safety Net Project US$ United States Dollar UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNICEF United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund USR Unified Social Registry WBG World Bank Group WFP World Food Programme WURI West Africa Unique Identification for Regional Integration and Inclusion XOF West African CFA Franc Republic of Niger Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (formerly Adaptive Social Safety Net Project 2) TABLE OF CONTENTS I. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING ........................................ 7 II. DESCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL FINANCING .................................................................... 17 III. KEY RISKS ..................................................................................................................... 26 IV. APPRAISAL SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 27 V. WORLD BANK GRIEVANCE REDRESS .............................................................................. 34 VI. SUMMARY TABLE OF CHANGES .................................................................................... 35 VII. DETAILED CHANGE(S).................................................................................................... 35 VIII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................................... 39 ANNEX I. IMPACT OF COVID-19 IN NIGER AND GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE ......................... 51 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) BASIC INFORMATION – PARENT (Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 - P166602) Country Product Line Team Leader(s) Niger IBRD/IDA Mahamane Maliki Amadou Project ID Financing Instrument Resp CC Req CC Practice Area (Lead) P166602 Investment Project HAWS2 (9346) AWCW3 (278) Social Protection & Jobs Financing Implementing Agency: Cellule Filets Sociaux ADD_FIN_TBL1 Is this a regionally tagged project? No Bank/IFC Collaboration No Expected Original Environmental Approval Date Closing Date Guarantee Current EA Category Assessment Category Expiration Date 03-Jan-2019 30-Jun-2024 Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Financing & Implementation Modalities Parent [ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach [MPA] [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s) [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a Non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on, Enhanced Implementation Support (HEIS) Page 1 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) Development Objective(s) The PDO is to improve the capacity of the Niger adaptive safety nets system to respond to shocks and to provide access for poor and vulnerable people to safety nets and accompanying measures. Ratings (from Parent ISR) RATING_DRAFT_NO Implementation Latest ISR 05-Apr-2019 07-Nov-2019 18-Jun-2020 21-Jan-2021 Progress towards achievement of PDO S S S S Overall Implementation Progress (IP) S S S S Overall Safeguards Rating S S S S Overall Risk S S S S Financial Management S S S MS Project Management S S S S Procurement S S MS MS Monitoring and Evaluation S S S S BASIC INFORMATION – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing - P173013) ADDFIN_TABLE Urgent Need or Capacity Project ID Project Name Additional Financing Type Constraints P173013 Niger Adaptive Safety Net Scale Up Yes Project 2 Additional Financing Financing instrument Product line Approval Date Investment Project IBRD/IDA 02-Mar-2021 Financing Page 2 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) Projected Date of Full Bank/IFC Collaboration Disbursement 30-Jun-2026 No Is this a regionally tagged project? No Financing & Implementation Modalities Child [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [✓] Fragile State(s) [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a Non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [✓] Responding to Natural or Man-made disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on, Enhanced Implementation Support (HEIS) [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) Disbursement Summary (from Parent ISR) Net Source of Funds Total Disbursed Remaining Balance Disbursed Commitments IBRD % IDA 80.00 52.60 30.05 64 % Grants % PROJECT FINANCING DATA – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing - P173013) PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) SUMMARY -NewFi n1 SUMMARY (Total Financing) Proposed Additional Total Proposed Current Financing Financing Financing Total Project Cost 80.00 130.00 210.00 Page 3 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) Total Financing 80.00 130.00 210.00 of which IBRD/IDA 80.00 100.00 180.00 Financing Gap 0.00 0.00 0.00 DETAILS - Additional Financing NewFinEnh1 World Bank Group Financing International Development Association (IDA) 100.00 IDA Credit 50.00 IDA Grant 50.00 Non-World Bank Group Financing Trust Funds 30.00 SAHEL ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAM 30.00 IDA Resources (in US$, Millions) Credit Amount Grant Amount Guarantee Amount Total Amount Niger 50.00 50.00 0.00 100.00 National PBA 50.00 50.00 0.00 100.00 Total 50.00 50.00 0.00 100.00 COMPLIANCE Policy Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects? [ ] Yes [ ✔ ] No Does the project require any other Policy waiver(s)? [ ] Yes [ ✔ ] No Page 4 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) INSTITUTIONAL DATA Practice Area (Lead) Social Protection & Jobs Contributing Practice Areas Climate Change and Disaster Screening This operation has been screened for short and long-term climate change and disaster risks PROJECT TEAM Bank Staff Name Role Specialization Unit Team Leader (ADM Snjezana Plevko Social protection HAWS2 Responsible) Mahamane Maliki Amadou Team Leader Social protection HAWS2 Mahamadou Bambo Procurement Specialist (ADM Procurement EAWRU Sissoko Responsible) Maman Hassane Gabari Procurement Specialist Procurement EAWRU Ahohouindo Mongnihoude Financial Management Financial management EAWG1 Jean L Gbaguidi Specialist (ADM Responsible) Social Specialist (ADM Demba Balde Social safeguards SAWS4 Responsible) Environmental Specialist (ADM Ibrah Hachimou Environmental safeguards SAWE1 Responsible) Adama Diop Team Member Disbursements WFACS Amadou Ba Team Member Disbursements CAFA2 Late Felix Lawson Team Member Disbursements WFACS Lydie Anne Billey Procurement Team Team support HAWS2 Mahaman Achirou Yahaya Team Member Social protection HAWS2 Arde Marie Aria Nezam Counsel Legal LEGAM Patrick Premand Team Member Impact evaluations DIME2 Page 5 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) Ramiro Ignacio Jauregui- Counsel Legal LEGLE Zabalaga Human capital accompanying Stanislas Honkuy Team Member HAWE2 measures Stephanie Brunelin Team Member Social protection HAWS2 Zeinabou Bizo Hassane Procurement Team Team support AWMNE Extended Team Name Title Organization Location Page 6 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) I. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING A. INTRODUCTION 1. This Project Paper seeks the approval of the Executive Directors for an Additional Financing (AF) in the amount of US$100 million equivalent to the Republic of Niger’s Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 (ASP2). The AF comprises of a US$50 million equivalent IDA credit, a US$50 million equivalent IDA grant. It also includes a US$30 million grant financed by the Multi-Donor Trust Fund for Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program (SASPP), bringing the total budget envelope for the Project to US$210 million equivalent. This AF has been requested by the Government of Niger (GoN) to respond to the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic while continuing to strengthen the capacity of the adaptive safety net system to respond to shocks, and to enhance the welfare and resilience of the poorest and the most vulnerable population. 2. The AF would scale up the existing safety nets to strengthen resilience of poor and vulnerable to climate and other shocks including conflict-related shocks. The proposed AF would also cover the financing needs associated with scaling up safety nets to provide emergency support to households affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in urban and rural areas through the parent Project. Finally, the AF would further strengthen the adaptive safety net system to enable its rapid response to various covariate shocks. The proposed AF includes parent Project restructuring that would allow for an update of the results framework, the inclusion of additional disbursement categories to facilitate monitoring of the implementation of the productive inclusion program, and an extension of the project duration of the parent Project by two years. The project development objectives (PDOs), implementation arrangements, and safeguards category would remain unchanged. The proposed AF is being processed under emergency procedures according to Section III, Paragraph 12 of the World Bank Investment Project Financing (IPF) Policy, in light of the importance and urgency of social safety net needs and protection. The environmental assessment category and safeguard policies would remain unchanged, and the existing safeguards documents have been updated and disclosed, taking into account COVID-19-related provisions. 3. The SASPP funds are funded by a multi-donor trust fund with contributions from Denmark, France, Germany and the United Kingdom to support countries in building adaptive social protection (ASP) systems to help vulnerable households adapt to the impacts of climate change. The SASPP supports country programs in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal to strengthen key building blocks of ASP systems, with a strengthened regional dimension through a regional analytical program to promote a coordinated approach across the six countries and mutual learning and experience-sharing between countries in the Sahel. Within the AF, the SASPP financing will be used to support the long-term COVID-19 response program, expand the coverage of climate shock response programs, and contribute to strengthening of the ASP system. The AF will also introduce further flexibility into scalable delivery systems to ensure timely response to concurrent and future shocks. B. COUNTRY CONTEXT 4. Niger is a low-income, landlocked and fragile country in the Sahel region experiencing a three-fold crisis: security, humanitarian, and more recently health crisis related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The regional insecurity and violent extremist groups threaten stability, fuel pre-existing tensions and cause the displacement of population. Among the estimated 22 million population, growing at about 3.8 percent per year, about Page 7 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) 280,000 persons are in high-intensity conflict zones, 3.5 million are in medium-intensity conflict zones, and 6.2 million are in a zone at risk of conflict. The effects of the ongoing civil insecurity continue to affect negatively food security for poorer and displaced households. About 309 security incidents have been reported between January and October 2020, resulting in 968 fatalities according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) dashboard. The regions of Diffa, Tillabery, and Tahoua are the most affected by insecurity and hosted an estimated 223,048 displaced people in April 2020, compared to 184,634 people in April 2019. Furthermore, despite progress made in recent years, poverty remains high in Niger, with two in five individuals (40.8 percent) living below the national poverty line in 2018.1 This corresponds to an absolute number of 9 million poor individuals, most of which (95 percent) resides rural areas. 5. The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have severe economic and social consequences in Niger and reverse some of the recent achievements in reducing poverty.2 Since its onset in Niger in March 2020, the pandemic has claimed the lives of 162 Nigeriens and infected 4,548 people as of February 2, 2021.3 The economic slowdown and lower government revenues to finance social programs for its vulnerable citizens have also adversely affected many Nigeriens. The global COVID-19 outbreak is expected to have a significant negative impact on Africa’s economy, and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is predicted to fall to -3.3 percent in 2020.4 The effects of the pandemic-driven global economic downturn and its impact on Niger’s economy are difficult to predict at this stage, but it is likely that impact will be significant and negative. Health care-related spending could rise by as much as 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and measures will be needed to cushion the pandemic’s social and economic fallout. A comprehensive response plan is in place5 with: (i) health measures (mainly prevention and containment); (ii) social protection (food and cash distributions and free utilities); and (iii) business support (predominantly temporary tax relief).6 6. There is a high disparity between women and men, with Niger ranking 154 out of 162 countries 7 on the inequality index between sexes which measures three important aspects of human development— reproductive health, empowerment, and economic status. In the education sector, the main factor affecting the low enrollment rate of girls is early marriage, with 76 percent of girls married before they turn 18, and about a third becoming wives before they turn 15. According to the 2017 Systematic Country Diagnostics (SCD) for Niger, 34 percent of Nigerien women are out of the labor force as opposed to 10 percent for men; those working are employed on average for fewer hours than men (28 versus 43) and receive lower earnings.8 Gender norms are prevalent, which translates into men participating more than women in productive activities, while the latter are in charge of household responsibilities. 7. Niger is particularly vulnerable to climate shocks with access to natural resources limited due to climate 1 Source: World Bank staff calculation based on the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) harmonized household survey, 2018/19. 2 Results from World Bank macro-micro simulations suggest that the poverty rate in Niger would increase by about 1.6 percentage point in 2020. 3 Niger Ministry of Health, https://www.sante.gouvne.org/coronna-covid-19/ 4 World Bank (2020) Africa’s Pulse Vol. 22: An analysis of issues facing Africa’s Economic Future. 5 Niger: plan de préparation et de réponse du Niger au nouveau Coronavirus (COVID-19), 2020 (Niger Preparation and Response Plan for COVID-19), https://www.afro.who.int/node/13091 6 See Annex 1 for details on the impact of the COVID-19 in Niger and the Government’s response. 7 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Human Development Report 2020 http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/NER.pdf 8 SCD. “Priorities for Ending Poverty and Boosting Shared Prosperity.” World Bank. November 28, 2017. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/998751512408491271/pdf/NIGER-SCD-12012017.pdf Page 8 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) change impacting significantly the Sahel region, high population increase and non-inclusive territorial development policies.9 Niger has a hot and semi-arid to arid climate and is one of the hottest and driest countries in the world. The country is already experiencing severe droughts and heat waves that result in chronic food insecurity.10 Climate change is expected to aggravate the situation with temperatures projected to increase by 1.6-2.9°C by 2050 and with higher rainfall variability leading to increased occurrence and severity of heavy rainfall events. With elevated risk of extreme droughts, heat waves and floods, Niger’s po pulation is highly vulnerable to climate shocks.11 Climate change impacts include water scarcity, reduction in soil moisture, increased erosion and plant damage, crop failure and reduced yields, increased incidence of pests and diseases impacting agriculture and livestock breeding, important sources of livelihood for the local communities. Drought and flood continue to be the main climate-related shocks in Niger: in 2011, drought led to a food crisis that affected almost half of the population, in September 2020, historic floods across the country created a humanitarian crisis affecting some 60,000 households and led to significant socio-economic and environmental losses. The country vulnerability to climate shock is due to its heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability. 8. The convergence of these shocks has worsened the food insecurity of both urban and peri-urban poor and vulnerable households as well as smallholder farmers and herders in rural areas. According to the latest Harmonized Framework (Cadre Harmonisé, CH) analysis, approximately one million people in Niger are currently (October-December 2020) in need of food assistance, and the number could increase to more than 1.5 million during the peak of the lean season (from June to August 2021). In addition, the COVID‑19 impact assessment carried out in April 2020 by the Early Warning System (EWS) has estimated that about 5.6 million people would be food insecure, including 2.7 million severe cases. The food security situation may worsen due to food price inflation. Prices of staple grains such as millet and sorghum are well above their year-earlier levels,12 mainly sustained by localized production deficits as a result of floods and pests, bottlenecks along the supply chain due to anti‑COVID-19 measures and the persistent insecurity in certain localities in the regions of Diffa, Maradi, Tahoua and Tillabéry. C. SECTORAL BACKGROUND 9. Since 2011, GoN has made important progress towards the development of an adaptive social protection system that builds resilience in Niger. The World Bank has been supporting the development of the GoN’s adaptive safety net system for almost a decade,13 contributing to the establishment of an effective and adaptive system and the increased access of poor, food insecure and vulnerable people to the system. The system now comprises a cash transfer for resilience program, which is the base program targeting the poorest households, and a cash for work (CfW) program aimed at strengthening the resilience of households to climatic shocks buttressed by a strong institutional and delivery framework. The cash transfer for resilience program is complemented by productive measures to support climate shock resilient livelihoods as well as human capital accompanying measures, fostering intersectoral links and connecting beneficiaries to providers offering complementary services such as nutrition, health, education, civil registration, and water and sanitation. 9 Climate Change and Conflict in the Sahel: Findings from Niger and Burkina Faso; US AID; March 2014. URL: https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/Sahel_Case_Study.pdf 10 Third National Communication to the UNFCCC; Republic of Niger; 2016. URL: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/nernc3_0.pdf 11 Thinkhazard website consulted on January 2021 (URL: https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/181-niger) 12 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis Bulletin #10, 10 December 2020, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). 13 The first project, the SNP (P123399), was approved in 2011, and closed on December 31, 2019. Page 9 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) Substantial progress has also been made in the development of a pilot program for a shock-response addressing droughts. The coordination and consultations among various stakeholders supporting the development of the adaptive social safety nets in Niger has improved. 10. Several stakeholders are working on social protection issues, mainly dealing with emergency response to food insecurity. The National Institution for the Prevention and Management of Food Crisis (Dispositif National de Prévention et de Gestion des Catastrophes et des Crises Alimentaires, DN) was created in 1998 and anchored in the Prime Minister’s Office to establish an institutional architecture to address the recurrent crises. The DN has evolved since its creation and now comprises a food crisis unit (Cellule Crises Alimentaires, CCA), a humanitarian response Early Warning Unit (EWU), and a safety nets unit (Cellule Filets Sociaux, CFS). The Nigerien Nourish Nigerien (3N) initiative, implemented by the High Commissioner’s Office (Haut Commissariat à l’Initiative 3N), coordinates the activities that promote agriculture development and food production, household nutrition and food security, and emergency responses. The Ministry of Employment, Work, and Social Protection (Ministère de l’Emploi, du Travail et de la Protection Sociale, MEWSP) is responsible for the social protection sector and policy. The Ministry of Humanitarian Action and Disaster Management (Ministère de l’Action Humanitaire et de la Gestion des Catastrophes, MHADM) is responsible for the development and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of humanitarian policy and disaster management, anticipating the occurrence of disasters (including the influx of refugees), coordination of responses at the national level by drawing up contingency and action plans, and preparation of programs and budgets to support actions through mobilization of partners and resources to deal with disasters. In addition, other stakeholders, such as the European Union, World Food Programme (WFP), United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), are active in the field of food and nutrition insecurity and early warning systems. 11. The Safety Net Project (SNP)14 provided a firm foundation for the on-going ASP215. The SNP covered a total of 95 communes (36 percent of all the communes in Niger) and reached approximately 140,000 households across Niger providing an adaptive cash transfer program for resilience. An additional 50,000 beneficiaries were involved in the cash-for-work program. The cash transfer for resilience program provided monthly transfers of XOF 10,000 (around US$17) to chronically poor households over a period of 24 months. Monthly transfers were delivered along with accompanying interventions designed to support either early childhood and human capital development, or livelihood diversification and productive inclusion with the aim of strengthening resilience to climate change. The Cash for Work (CfW) activities provided beneficiaries with a daily salary of US$2.50 per person for 60 days/year, paid bi-weekly. The SNP also successfully provided emergency cash transfers in three regions in response to a request from the GoN to help households cope with the impact of conflict (Diffa and Tahoua) and drought (Agadez). 12. The ASP2 is managed by the Safety Net Unit (Cellule Filets Sociaux, CFS), established within the National Framework for the Prevention and Management of Food Crises (DN) in the Prime Minister’s Office. The CFS benefits from a nationwide reach, and has national, regional, and local staff with substantial implementation experience. Substantial progress has already been made in the development of a social system delivery framework, including procedures for identification, registration and payments to beneficiaries based on a well- performing monitoring and information system (MIS). The Project has established a solid MIS and electronic payment modules. The process of identification, selection, and registration has evolved to be based on tablets 14 Safety Net Project (P123399); approved on May 19, 2011, closed on December 31, 2019. 15 Adaptive SNP (P166602), effective since June 20, 2019. Page 10 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) and electronic tools, thus improving efficiency. Payment modules allow for fast reconciliation and monthly payments. However, the COVID-19 crisis has emphasized the importance of modernizing the payment system for social cash transfers through transaction accounts to increase traceability of the programs while ensuring that beneficiaries have a safe way to store or save money. 13. The foundations for the establishment of a Unified Social Registry (USR) have been laid with the establishment of a Steering Committee, a Technical Committee and the creation of a Technical Unit to ensure its operation. The USR has been placed under the leadership of the DN, which provides political oversight and ensure coordination with other social protection actors in Niger. However, capacity building of the USR is needed and planned in the AF, particularly to strengthen institutional aspects. The USR will provide a unified database of socioeconomic information which can help to select beneficiaries of safety nets programs more accurately. It intends to enhance coordination among safety nets interventions and avoid duplication, as well as improve efficiency of service delivery in terms of cost and timing. A common database of around 400,000 households has already been established with CFS. The database has been expanded in 2020 with the addition of more than 30,000 rural households eligible for the first phase of the cash transfer for resilience program and of more than 210,000 urban households in the context of the short-term response to the COVID-19 pandemic. 14. The Project focuses on empowering women in rural areas who are facing constraints to increasing their productivity and helping them obtain greater control on their own economic resources. Women have low access to land, finance, and skills and social norms limit their ability to access the market to trade their own products. In addition, the heavy burden from domestic activities reduces the time they can devote to develop their own income generating activities. The Project activities are strongly gender oriented with almost all the beneficiaries of the cash transfer program for resilience being women. Under the cash transfer for resilience program, beneficiaries are encouraged to invest in their own children to break the intergeneration transmission of poverty, as well as to participate in the saving groups to be able to invest in their own Income Generating Activities (IGA). Women are also involved in the CfW interventions (40 percent of the CfW beneficiaries) and are the main beneficiaries of the productive inclusion accompanying measures. The project acts also as a delivery platform to provide scholarship for adolescent girls to keep them longer in school and to avoid early marriage. 15. The Project contributes to the poverty prevention and resilience agenda of the Government. The cash transfer for shock response component of the Project has been used in the past to provide assistance to households affected by conflict and displacement. In 2016/2017, the SNP delivered cash transfers over a 12- month period to 2,500 households in Diffa and Tahoua. Assistance was provided to members of the host communities, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and Nigeriens returning from insecure parts of Nigeria. In addition to the shock response component which will be scaled up by the AF, the ASP2 Project contributes to building prevention in areas at risk of conflict (especially in Diffa and Tillabéry) by building household resilience to shocks. The recent impact evaluation of the cash transfer16 program with productive accompanying measures revealed the positive impact of the Project on economic activities and diversification, food security, as well as women’s empowerment. Improving economic opportunities and supporting rehabilitation of socioeconomic infrastructure can ease tensions and reduce specific vulnerabilities that are conducive to social violence. The Project was found successful in raising psychological well-being, including future expectations of beneficiaries which captures expected economic and social status in the future. The Project had also a positive 16World Bank, Impacts of Cash Transfers and Productive Inclusion Measures in the Niger Adaptive Social Protection System, February 2021. Page 11 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) impact on social well-being indices, raising social cohesion and improving community closeness, which is especially critical in areas at risk of conflict. With the support of the AF, the Project intends to strengthen the accompanying measures provided to communities with the objective of reinforcing social cohesion at the horizontal and vertical levels (between local government and society). Box 1: Lessons from Implementation and Impact Evaluations on the SNP Strong results and important lessons stemming from the SNP informed the design of the ASP2 and this AF. By reaching approximately one million individuals, the SNP demonstrated the potential of scaling up government-led safety nets in a low-income country. Multi-year, predictable cash transfers proved effective to mitigate the welfare effects of climatic shocks and contributed to building poor households’ resilience. The SNP promoted the GoN’s political ownership and commitment and supported establishment of an adequate institutional setting. The policy dialogue to integrate social protection, climate change adaptation and disaster risk management (DRM) was initiated by SNP, leading to the incorporation of the CFS within the DN, and to strengthening of the linkages between programs. The SNP also supported the initiation of the dialogue regarding the development of a USR. Flexibility, built in the SNP design, laid the groundwork for an adaptive safety net system that is rapidly scalable in response to climate and conflict related shocks. The introduction of a shock response cash transfer program allowed for quick mobilization of resources and rapid scaling up of cash transfers to effectively respond to shocks. The program worked successfully in response to 2016-17 Boko Haram security crisis in Diffa and 2017 livestock crisis in Agadez. The combination of cash transfers with human capital accompanying measures provided added value in terms of improving practices aimed at promoting human development. This approach had a positive impact on women’s knowledge and practices related to children’s health, nutrition and development. Women were the cash transfer recipients and the main beneficiaries of the accompanying measures. Placing women at the center of safety net implementation increased their visibility and productive inclusion, hence strengthening their empowerment. Productive inclusion measures yielded cost-effective results and produced considerable impact on households’ income, food security, resilience and well-being compared to cash-only. They helped boost investments and diversify off-farm income-generating activities – central to households’ resilience to climate shock s - which led to significant increases in revenues and profits compared to the cash-only option. The sustainability of CfW microprojects and their impact on resilience were enhanced by promoting participatory planning; securing land tenure; and ensuring an adequate time span for effective changes to take place. After restructuring, the SNP introduced a community-based participatory approach in the design, management and maintenance of microprojects. Legal documents were signed in order to secure land tenure for a number of years and ensure long-term asset utilization. CfW projects were also extended to two years. These measures contributed to the high performance of the project in terms of sustainability of the public assets created through CfW. 16. The ASP2 with the proposed AF is complementary to and will seek to foster synergies with other World Bank- supported interventions. The ASP2 Project Implementation Unit (PIU) is implementing a component of the Population and Health Support Project (P147638), by providing cash transfers to keep girls in school and related behavioral measures. Links with employment and livelihood support interventions are being developed through collaboration with the Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (PEJIP, P163157). The Project complements the interventions of the Niger Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (Projet d’Appui aux Réfugiés et aux Communautés d’Accueil, PARCA, P164563) in the regions of Diffa, Tahoua, and Tillabéry. The areas of interventions of the PARCA have been chosen following discussions with the ASP2 PIU. The ASP2 project will pursue dialogue and partnership with the PARCA to ensure coordination in the Page 12 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) implementation of plans to deliver an integrated package of services similar to Component 2 of the ASP2 Project. The project is also working closely with the team of the West Africa Unique Identification for Regional Integration and Inclusion (WURI, P169594) Program to ensure full alignment with the priorities set for the development of the USR. Finally, the implementation of the AF activities, especially those linked to the strengthening of beneficiary information system will be coordinated with the Smart Villages for Rural Growth and Digital Inclusion Project (P167543). D. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives 17. The Project supports Niger’s Social and Economic Development Plan17 and its recent COVID-19 pandemic response plan.18 It will contribute to financing the components of the COVID-19 response plan on “support to vulnerable populations”. 18. Niger is potentially eligible for the IDA-19 Prevention and Resilience Allocation (PRA) for an envelope of US$700 million. The eligibility process involves the preparation of an Eligibility Note which includes the Government’s PRA Action Plan to address the factors of fragility and conflict as well as the World Bank Group (WBG) approach in calibrating the IDA portfolio to support Niger’s PRA Action Plan objectives. Niger’s PRA Action Plan is articulated around four strategic objectives: (1) improve youth and women’s social and economic integration; (2) mitigate multidimensional insecurity with a participatory approach to security management and a stronger State presence in remote border areas and in at-risk zones; (3) prevent and manage conflict related to natural resource management, with a focus on intra-communal tension and population growth; and (4) improve governance to manage conflict prevention and resilience. This proposed AF, which will be presented alongside the PRA to the World Bank Board, supports the PRA Action Plan Strategic Objective 1 with activities such as: (i) provision of emergency cash transfers to respond to shocks including COVID-19, conflict and natural disasters; and (ii) empowerment and inclusion of girls and women; which altogether can contribute to increasing women’s economic and social integration as well as preventing escalation of conflict and violence. 19. The proposed AF is closely aligned with the FY18-FY22 Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Niger19, the WBG Fragility, Conflict and Violence Strategy,20 and the WBG COVID-19 Crisis Response Approach Paper.21 The proposed AF directly contributes to the second CPF pillar on human capital and social protection, as well as the first CPF pillar on rural productivity and income. It is also in line with the CPF’s dual focus on empowering women and girls and addressing the drivers of fragility.22 The AF also follows the WBG COVID-19 Crisis Response Approach Paper by including activities aimed at protecting livelihoods and supporting recovery and resilience. By strengthening Niger’s adaptive national social protection system and scaling up implementation of the core safety net programs to support resilience and human capital investments among poor households and emergency response programs, the proposed AF would address the core of the challenges faced by Niger in poverty reduction, building resilience and social cohesion, and responding to shocks. 17 Plan de Développement Economique et Social, PDES 2017-2021. 18 Niger : plan de préparation et de réponse du Niger au nouveau Coronavirus (COVID-19), 2020. 19 CPF Report No. 123736-NE approved in April 2018. 20 World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict and Violence 2020-2025, February 2020. 21 Saving Lives, Scaling-Up Impact and Getting Back on Track – World Bank Group COVID-19 Crisis Response Approach Paper, June 2020. 22 The drivers of conflict and fragility include (a) climate vulnerability and environmental degradation; (b) territorial imbalances and uneven share of mining revenues and benefit; and (c) a growing regional security threat. Youth exclusion and increasing demographic pressure are transversal fragility, conflict, and violence drivers, compounding the risks caused by each structural driver. Page 13 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) E. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Government Response 20. Starting in March 2020, Niger was hit by the COVID-19 outbreak, which caused a health crisis, triggered an economic slowdown and further exacerbated fragility, due to both the direct measures taken to contain the virus, and to the global and regional recession. The COVID-19 shock has reinforced an already heightened risk of food insecurity caused by the country’s vulnerability to shocks (floods, drought as well as conflict and forced displacement). Before the COVID-19 outbreak, the CH analysis estimated that about two million people would be food insecure during the 2020 lean season, well above the 1.2 million people that were estimated to be food insecure in the same period in 2019. At the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis, EWS conducted an assessment revealing that 5.6 million people were negatively impacted by the crisis, among which 2.7 million people faced a strong deterioration of their food security status and needed immediate emergency response. 21. In March 2020, GoN issued a Global Response Plan to the COVID-19 crisis23 to address the most urgent health, education and food security needs caused by the pandemic. After the initial health-focused response, GoN has initiated free food distributions from the CCA to affected households in rural and urban areas. About 170,000 households were reached through food assistance to help them cope with the threats that COVID-19 related measures are posing to food security. 22. In parallel to the emergency food assistance program, GoN, with the support of the World Bank and other development partners, has developed a COVID-19 response program to support households impacted by the crisis. The program proposes a two-stage approach. In the first stage, the program aims to respond to immediate needs of households in urban and rural areas impacted by the crisis by providing them with a one- off short-term COVID-19 response cash transfer. Recognizing that the COVID-19 crisis will have longer-term effects on the most vulnerable, the second stage of the COVID-19 response program includes long-term support to the poorest households affected by the COVID-19 crisis to rebuild their livelihoods and strengthen their long-term resilience to any future shocks through regular cash transfers and accompanying measures. 23. To enable the implementation of the COVID-19 response program, GoN requested the support of the World Bank. The ASP2 was restructured to enable timely support and urgent implementation of the first stage of the COVID-19 response program, and US$36 million were reallocated to cover the provision of emergency cash transfers to 150,000 affected households in urban areas, and 250,000 households in rural areas (accounting for about 90 percent and 45 percent of households impacted by the crisis in urban and rural areas respectively24). Support for the implementation for the second stage of COVID-19 response program will be provided as a part of this AF, through the expansion of the cash transfer for resilience program, the country’s core poverty-targeted cash transfer program, to households affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The AF will also cover the financing needs within the parent Project’s original activities (which continue to be relevant) that were left underfunded after the emergency restructuring for the COVID-19 response. Further, the AF will scale up the Project activities to enable the achievement and further strengthening of its original development objectives and improve capacity of the adaptive safety net system to respond to shocks and provide access for poor and vulnerable households to safety nets and accompanying measures to strengthen their resilience. 23 “PlanGlobal de Réponse à la Pandémie du Coronavirus COVID-19", Cabinet du Premier Ministre, Comité Interministériel de Gestion de la Riposte à la Pandémie de Coronavirus COVID-19, mars 2020. 24 Out of the 5.6 million people impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, 4.3 million people are located in rural areas and 1.3 million in urban areas. Considering an average household size of seven people per household, the first phase of the COVID-19 cash transfer program will cover about 90 percent and 45 percent of households impacted by the crisis in urban and rural areas respectively. Page 14 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) F. Project Background and Progress 24. The Niger ASP2 (in the amount of US$80 million equivalent) was approved by the Board of Executive Directors on January 3, 2019 and became effective on June 20, 2019. The ASP2 builds on the lessons learned in the implementation of the SNP. The PDO is to improve the capacity of the Niger adaptive safety nets system to respond to shocks and to provide access for poor and vulnerable people to safety nets and accompanying measures. It includes four components: (1) Strengthening the Adaptive and Scalable Safety Net System; (2) Cash Transfers and Accompanying Measures; (3) Cash for Work for Resilience; and (4) Project Management. The implementation of the ASP2 has been progressing successfully. Along with continuing the implementation of the cash transfer for resilience program and cash-for-work program, the ASP2 continues building shock- responsive programs and strengthening of the social protection delivery systems to facilitate the implementation of these programs. As of end January 2021, the Project has disbursed US$52.6 million, about 64 percent of the total financing. The progress towards achievement of PDO and overall Implementation Progress (IP) are rated Satisfactory. The ASP2 is in compliance with all the legal covenants, audits and financial management (FM) reporting requirements. The component-wise implementation status and results achieved so far are as follows: 25. Component 1: Strengthening the Adaptive and Scalable Safety Net System (US$5.0 million equivalent). The component supports all the activities that allow the successful registration, targeting, enrollment and payment of beneficiaries of social programs. This support has been vital for enabling a rapid scale up and enrollment of about 400,000 households in the emergency COVID-19 response program. The wide network of regional and local field representatives supporting the implementation of the programs has been established and is being supported under this component. The activities on strengthening of the social protection system framework and the reinforcement of the CFS implementation capacity are ongoing. Finally, to ensure rapid response to the COVID-19 crisis, and enable substantial scaling-up of the response, the safety net system has been strengthened by expanding the existing database in the CFS and collecting the household data for almost 250,000 households in 2020, developing the targeting tool to enable expansion of the program in urban areas (where the ASP2 was not present), and enrolling 399,000 households in the COVID-19 short-term response program. Component 2: Cash Transfers and Accompanying Measures (US$48.0 million equivalent). The enrollment of beneficiaries for the new cycle of the cash transfers for resilience and cash for work have been completed. To date, a total of 28,000 beneficiaries in 23 communes characterized by high poverty and food insecurity levels and vulnerability to climate shocks across Niger are enrolled in cash transfer for resilience program, receiving monthly transfers of XOF 15,000 (equivalent of US$28) over a 24-month period. These cash transfers are delivered along with accompanying measures aimed to encourage investments in human capital25 as well as to improve livelihoods and facilitate adaptation and resilience. Significant progress has also been made in the development of a rules-based drought disaster risk financing mechanism based on objective early warning indicators and other relevant information for the scale-up of climate shock-responsive safety nets. The drought 25 The accompanying measures to encourage human capital investments focus on parenting behaviors, early childhood development, and nutrition. 14 modules are being implemented: (1) Hygiene and hand washing; (2) Brain development and sleep management in children; (3) Exclusive breastfeeding; (4) Quality supplemental nutrition supply; (5) Child malnutrition; (6) Stimulation of the child's language; (7) Playing with children; (8) Protecting children from disease; (9) Treating children at the earliest signs of illness; (10) Declaration of birth at the civil registry office; (11) Preparing for school; (12) Management of pregnancy, childbirth and birth spacing; (13) Child attachment and social-emotional development; and (14) Discipline, punishment and conflict management. Page 15 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) response pilot program has been finalized and it will be tested during the 2020/2021 agricultural season. Based on predefined rules and triggers, the ASP2 will provide monthly emergency transfers for a period of up to 12 months to vulnerable households in areas identified as affected by a drought. In September 2020, Niger faced devastating flooding that killed at least 65 people and affected about 490,000 people who endured severe damage and destruction as a result of the flood. As a result, responding to a request by the GoN, the ASP2 is providing emergency support to 13,500 households impacted by floods in four regions (Dosso, Maradi, Niamey and Tillabery) of the country. As the first phase of the response to COVID-19 crisis, the ASP2 Project was restructured enabling the GoN to launch on September 2020 an emergency cash transfer program designed to protect households affected by the crisis. The short term COVID-19 response is the result of joint efforts between the World Bank, UNICEF and the WFP under the leadership of the CFS. Out of the 500,000 expected beneficiaries of the COVID-19 emergency response program, 400,000 are financed by IDA as a result from the Project restructuring. To date, the program has been fully implemented in rural areas, where about 250,000 households benefitted from one-off cash transfer of XOF 45,000 (equivalent of US$84) transfer, and the implementation is currently on-going in urban areas. 26. Component 3: Cash for Work for Resilience (US$18.5 million equivalent). The initial cohort of 4,400 beneficiaries of CfW component, has completed 38 community microprojects designed to support poor people in areas that have been affected by persistent or recurrent weather and climate change-related shocks several times over the past few years. The CfW component allows local communities to undertake projects that are centered on climate change adaptation and resilience building at community level, including projects that focus on increasing water security, reducing soil erosion, and diversifying livelihoods. Village-level accompanying measures have been designed to ensure longer-term climate resilience, including the introduction of a community-based participatory approach to the design, management and maintenance of microprojects. 27. Component 4: Project Management (US$8.5 million equivalent). The PIU - the CFS - is fully operational, with presence in all eight regions of Niger, and all the activities related to Project management are being performed in a satisfactory manner. G. RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING 28. The AF responds to the socio-economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic with a multifold and phased approach, aligned with the logic of the WBG COVID-19 approach paper. In the first phase, the aim will be to protect people. Building on the established delivery mechanisms, the AF will allow for providing immediate relief to poor and vulnerable households impacted by the social and economic crisis set off by the pandemic. As part of the second phase aimed at recovery and resilience building, the AF will expand the cash transfers for resilience program to households that may have fallen into poverty as a consequence of the pandemic. As such, the response to the COVID-19 will also contribute to affected households’ resilience to concurrent climate shocks, especially drought and floods. It will also increase the access of poor households to a combination of human development and productive inclusion accompanying measures aiming at strengthening their resilience. As a third phase, which can commence in parallel with the second phase but will continue beyond, the AF will introduce further flexibility into scalable delivery systems to ensure timely response to concurrent and future shocks. It will also upgrade these delivery systems through the inclusion of digital payments and the expansion of the USR. These measures are expected to make the mentioned systems more agile in the face of shocks. Page 16 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) 29. The proposed AF will: (i) cover the financing needs of US$36 million associated with the provision of emergency support to households affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in urban and rural areas; (ii) scale-up the existing adaptive cash transfer for resilience program to strengthen the resilience of poor and vulnerable households as well as households affected by COVID-19 in need of medium to long-term support to climate, conflict and other shocks; and (iii) further strengthen the social protection delivery system to enhance its performance and ability to respond to climate, conflict and other shocks. II. DESCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL FINANCING A. SUMMARY OF CHANGES 30. Along with covering the financing needs for parent Project activities, the proposed AF and associated restructuring will allow for scaling up the parent Project activities to enhance the impact of the well- performing Project. The original PDO, and PDO indicators will remain the same, while the targets of the outcome and intermediate indicators will be revised in line with the expansion of the Project coverage, as well as scaling-up of existing activities and inclusion of additional activities focused on strengthening the system’s capacity to respond to climate, conflict, health and other shocks. The Project governance and implementation structures will remain as under the parent Project, but will be further strengthened to ensure smooth implementation of all project activities. 31. Specifically, key changes being introduced with this AF include: scaling-up and inclusion of additional activities under the parent Project components; revisions of the results framework; changes in the budget allocations for each project component; the inclusion of additional disbursement categories to increase transparency and facilitate monitoring of the implementation of the productive inclusion program; and an extension of the project duration by two years. CHANGES TO PDO INDICATORS 32. The proposed AF would maintain the original PDO and the original PDO level and intermediate indicators will remain relevant. The existing PDO indicator related to measuring the capacity of implementing the ASP programs will be revised to also measure beneficiaries of cash transfers receiving payments through mobile accounts. New intermediate indicators will be introduced to measure progress in implementation of emergency response programs. Finally, targets of the outcome and intermediate indicators will be revised in line with the expansion of the coverage of the programs and end dates for all targets extended to match with the newly established closing date of June 30, 2026. All the changes are presented in the results framework. CHANGES TO COMPONENTS AND COSTS 33. Components. The original structure of the Project would be maintained. The AF would ensure covering the financing needs resulting from the parent Project restructuring for COVID-19 response, scaling up of programs supported under the Project, and including additional activities to further strengthen the capacity of the adaptive safety net system. Component 1. Strengthening the Adaptive and Scalable Safety Net System (Total: US$10.0 million equivalent, of which US$6.5 million IDA AF and US$3.5 million SASPP) Page 17 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) 34. The proposed AF will continue supporting institutional development efforts and increasing the efficiency of the safety nets system, especially in the area of early warning, its ability to be rapidly scaled up in times of shocks and crisis, as well as strengthen national mechanisms for crisis prevention, preparedness and response planning, as well as supporting the coordination between humanitarian and development actors. Sub-component 1.1. Strengthening national systems 35. Support the capacity of the EWS to collect, store and manage data. The proposed AF will provide technical assistance, institutional capacity building and goods for Niger EWS anchored at the DN to strengthen its capacity to monitor, geo-map, coordinate and plan safety net interventions, as well as collect, store, manage data, improve data collection protocols and methodologies, and analyze early warning data, especially related to climate events, that can then be used by the CFS to launch timely shock response interventions. A mapping of the key stakeholders involved in the EWS for climate shocks, food security and nutrition is under preparation and will be used to generate a roadmap to improve the EWS. Specific attention will be given to promote and increase coordination with other government stakeholders and key partners such as the WFP. 36. Design of a methodology for an early response to rapid onset shocks. The proposed AF will support the process of establishing a rules-based mechanism for scaling up the safety net systems to respond to rapid onset shocks. Building on the experience of the drought response program, the Project will work on the development of a rapid onset shock response mechanism, which will be sequenced and will initially focus on floods, as floods are the second most frequent climate-related shock after drought and have had severe impacts in 2020. 37. Expand the database of households to cover the entire population in the most vulnerable areas. The COVID- 19 pandemic and the devastating floods that impacted Niger in 2020 highlighted the need to expand the household data collection efforts in the most vulnerable areas to ease and speed up the implementation of cash transfer assistance in response to shocks. The AF will finance the expansion of the data collection in the most vulnerable areas in terms of food insecurity, poverty and exposure to climate shocks to facilitate the identification and selection of most vulnerable households in response to shocks. 38. Strengthen the institutional, regulatory and operational framework for the USR. In order to be fully operational and to ensure the ability of the USR unit to expand coverage in poor and food insecure areas, the technical implementation unit in charge of the registry will need to be reinforced with additional staff, including quality control and data management specialists, and equipped with hardware, software and servers for the USR. To ensure data integrity and data protection, the technical assistance will be provided for the development of regulations for the USR data that will build on the existing provisions of the Data Protection Law (2017/ 2019). Also, complementarity will be built with WURI which has institutional support to the newly created independent institution for High Authority of Personal Data Protection (Haute Autorité à la Protection des Données à Caractère Personnel, HAPDP). Sub-component 1.2. Supporting policy dialogue and inter-sectoral coordination 39. The AF will continue to support the strengthening of the institutional and regulatory framework for the ASP and promote inter-sectoral coordination. This sub-component will provide technical assistance to support the revision of the National Social Protection Policy and develop the accompanying regulations and operational guidelines to ensure that the core principles of the ASP Programs are fully reflected. It will also finance technical support to the CFS for coordinating all the safety nets interventions and to the MEWSP for strengthening the Page 18 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) coordination with the DN. This sub-component supports policy dialogue and collaboration across social protection institutions at national and regional level, development partners and other local partners on adaptive social protection, disaster risk financing and shock-responsive safety nets. Finally, the AF will also finance technical support to the development of a disaster risk financing strategy. Sub-component 1.3. Delivery tools, implementation, and monitoring of safety net interventions 40. A new activity would be included in the AF, focused on the design and implementation of a digital payment model for the COVID-19 cash transfers in urban areas. The proposed AF will support the development and operational setup for the introduction of digital payments in urban areas. Considering the lack of experience of the CFS in terms of digital payment, technical support will be needed to conduct the feasibility study for the use of mobile payment systems for social transfers, set up the payment system, develop the legal service agreements with the payment provider, and set up a payment reconciliation and monitoring system. 41. Strengthening of beneficiary information system. The AF will also finance the development of modules to provide SMS or voice messages to beneficiaries via mobile phone as part of an integrated and transparent GRM system and to deliver key messages to beneficiaries regarding the COVID-19 prevention, the COVID-19 cash transfer program, digital payment system and other social programs. A toll-free number could be used to channel grievances from all safety net interventions. Component 2. Cash Transfers and Accompanying Measures (Total: US$162.0 million equivalent, of which US$135.5 million IDA AF and US$26.5 million SASPP) Sub-component 2.1. Cash transfers 42. Under Sub-component 2.1, the AF will cover the financing needs associated with the provision of emergency support to households affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in urban and rural areas by the parent Project and will further scale-up the cash transfer for resilience program, increasing the number of program beneficiaries from 50,000 households initially planned under the Project to 120,000 households. The increase will: i) cover 90,000 poor and vulnerable households in poor and food insecure areas vulnerable to climate and conflict-related shocks using IDA financing; and ii) support the medium and long-term recovery of 30,000 households impacted by the COVID-19 shock that will be covered by the SASPP grant. Data on beneficiaries of the emergency COVID-19 program have already been collected and added to the USR which will facilitate the roll-out of the medium-term COVID-19 response program. Beneficiary selection will be based on a Proxy Means Test (PMT) to select the poorest among the households identified as impacted by the pandemic. The availability of mobile phone data in the USR on potential beneficiaries in urban areas will allow the program to pilot the use of mobile phone payments to deliver medium-term assistance to households affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Sub-component 2.2. Accompanying measures 43. Update and implementation of human capital accompanying measures. The AF will finance: (i) the update of human capital accompanying measures to incorporate messages related to COVID-19 prevention, as well as the lessons learned and recommendations from both the impact evaluations and the process evaluation conducted during the first project; and (ii) the scale up of human capital accompanying measures to cover the increased number of cash transfers beneficiaries. Page 19 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) 44. Design and piloting of additional accompanying measures, including aimed at furthering household resilience to climate change. The AF will enable the design and piloting of additional sets of accompanying measures. Measures supporting rural households: In Niger, most households in rural areas are engaged in agricultural activities. The agricultural sector is characterized by strong seasonality reflected in agricultural prices that are low following harvest and reach a peak during the lean season. Most farmers are net buyers of agricultural products; they typically sell crops at low prices following harvest and buy when prices are at their highest. Accompanying measures would be geared toward helping rural households take advantage of spatial and intertemporal arbitrage opportunities either by providing better access to market information or by incentivizing home storage. Shock response accompanying measures: In addition to the support provided through monthly cash transfer, a combination of shock response accompanying measures would be designed and piloted for households assisted by the drought response pilot26. Accompanying measures to strengthen social cohesion in communities affected by insecurity or displacement or at risk of conflict: The AF will also develop accompanying measures designed to rebuild or reinforce social cohesion in communities affected by insecurity or displacement and in areas at risk of conflict. Considering the importance of community dynamics in Niger, the Project will develop community-based interventions as a source of resilience in areas affected by insecurity or displacement. This will be done through training or awareness-raising sessions geared toward the specific needs of different socio-economic groups, community leaders and local elders and by promoting intergenerational dialogue. 45. Scale up of productive inclusion accompanying measures. Based on the first findings from Niger and other ASP countries on the positive impact of the productive inclusion package, the AF will finance its expansion from 10,000 beneficiaries that were initially planned under the Project to 50,000 beneficiaries, including households whose livelihoods have been strained by COVID-19, with the aim of strengthening household resilience to covariate shocks such as conflict-related shocks and climate-related shocks whose frequency will increase under the effect of climate change. barriers to access good economic opportunities. 46. The productive accompanying measures provided to women beneficiaries will include a core package of support designed to help women overcome the barriers they face to access good economic opportunities and a productive inclusion cash transfer. The productive inclusion support package includes a sequence of accompanying measures such as the creation of groups of beneficiaries, savings group facilitation, basic entrepreneurship training and life skills training, or psychosocial support. In addition to the provision of productive accompanying measures, productive inclusion beneficiaries will receive a cash transfer for productive inclusion of about 100,000 XOF (US$190) to help beneficiaries cover the start-up costs or the expansion of their micro-businesses and income generating activities. Sub-component 2.3. Cash transfers for shock response 47. Scale up shock response transfers to covariate climate shocks. Based on the trigger mechanisms and the processes defined under Component 1, the shock response sub-component will be scaled up to provide emergency cash transfers to vulnerable households in areas identified as affected by a climate shock. In 2020, the shock response was used to deliver assistance to 13,500 households affected by floods. A drought response mechanism was prepared under the ASP2 Project and planned to cover 8,500 beneficiaries over a two-year period. The AF will finance the extension of this sub-component to cover a total of 23,000 households with 26This will include activities designed to help households protect assets and avoid negative coping strategies and could include activities such as seeds and livestock feed banks, cereals banks and the provision on information related to market prices. Page 20 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) emergency transfers in response to various climate shocks. Table 1. Number of program beneficiary households Number of Beneficiary Households Programs Original Project With the AF Cash transfers (CT) for CT for resilience 50,000 90,000 resilience COVID-19 medium-term - 30,000 Human capital accompanying measures 50,000 100,000 Productive inclusion package COVID-19 beneficiaries (urban - 30,000 areas) CT beneficiaries (rural areas) 10,000 20,000 COVID-19 short-term 400,000 - Shock response CT Climate shock response 22,000 23,000 CfW for resilience 66,000 66,000 Component 3. Cash for Work for Resilience (Total: US$18 million equivalent financed by IDA AF) 48. Under this component, the AF will replenish the financing for the original planned activities to ensure achievement of the original ASP2 objective of providing the CfW opportunities to approximately 66,000 beneficiaries. The beneficiaries will receive a remuneration of XOF 1,300 (equivalent of US$ 2.4) a day for 60 days for two consecutive years. In contrast to the shock response component which support household affected by a shock in a given year, the CfW component is designed to support poor people in areas that have been repeatedly affected by shocks over the past few years based on data collected by the EWS. The CfW component allows local communities to undertake projects that are centered on climate change adaptation and resilience building, including projects that focus on increasing water security, reducing soil erosion and diversifying livelihoods. The CfW program includes village-level accompanying measures focusing on topics related to land, property rights, land degradation, and resilience. These accompanying measures have been designed to increase the impact and sustainability of microprojects and to strengthen the resilience of beneficiaries and their communities. Component 4. (Part D). Project Management (Total: US$20.0 million equivalent financed by IDA AF) 49. This component will cover expenditures related to the procurement of goods, works, services, and consultants necessary for the management of the Project. This component will also continue to support activities to improve accountability and transparency in the use of project resources. Field-based sampling verifications/spot-checks will be conducted on a random sample of program communities and seek to assess the program’s operational processes, particularly with a view toward ensuring adherence to design and improving operational efficiency and information flows. Regular audits will be performed, including financial, technical, and procurement. In the case of the CfW programs the technical audits will help to monitor the implementation of the CfW microprojects, maximize community involvement and avoid potential difficulties that can result in delays. Page 21 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) SUMMARY OF CHANGES TO PROJECT ACTIVITIES Table 2. Summary of the proposed changes to Project activities Existing project activities that will remain supported Proposed additional activities under the AF Component 1: Strengthening the Adaptive and Scalable Safety Net System (Total US$10 million) Support to the DN at the technical and institutional Support the capacity of the EWS to collect, levels to strengthen the capacity to monitor, geo-map, store and manage data. Strengthen data coordinate, and plan safety nets interventions collection protocols and methodologies Technical, operational, and institutional support to the DN to develop a rules-based disaster risk financing Design of a methodology for an early mechanism to support the scale-up of the safety net response to rapid onset shocks such as programs in response to shocks based on objective floods, conflicts and health related shocks early warning indicators 1.1: Expansion of the data collection to cover Strengthening the entire population in the most national systems vulnerable and food insecure areas Equip the technical implementation unit in charge of the USR with hardware, Support for the institutionalization and software, servers and additional staff, operationalization of an USR including quality control and data management specialists Support development of regulation for USR data protection Technical support to the CFS for coordinating all the safety net Support intersectoral coordination of safety nets interventions and to the MEWSP for strengthening the coordination with the 1.2: Supporting DN policy dialogue Support the revision of the National Social Protection and inter-sectoral Policy and development of the accompanying coordination regulations and operational guidelines Foster policy dialogue on disaster risk financing and Support the development of the disaster shock-responsive safety nets risk financing strategy Improvements and implementation of delivery Design and implement a digital payment processes for efficient and timely targeting, 1.3 Delivery tools, model for the COVID-19 cash transfers in identification, registration, and payment of implementation, urban areas beneficiaries and monitoring of Improvement the capacity and flexibility of the MIS Strengthening of the GRM system through safety net (system upgrades and expansion of electronic data introduction of the SMS/call messaging interventions collection approaches) system Process and impact evaluations Page 22 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) Component 2: Cash Transfers and Accompanying Measures (Total US$162 million) Scale up of cash transfers to resilience Payment of monthly cash transfers to beneficiaries for 2.1: Cash program, especially in poor areas consumption support transfers for vulnerable to climate shocks resilience Scale-up of ASP program to support COVID- 19 response Review, update and scale up Implementation of human capital accompanying implementation of human capital measures accompanying measures (design of new tools and processes) Implementation of accompanying measures for 2.2: productive inclusion Scale up implementation of productive Accompanying Payment of Lump-sum cash grant for economic accompanying measures measures activities Design and piloting of additional accompanying measures (measures supporting rural households and households impacted by shocks) Scale up shock response transfers to rapid Cash transfers for emergency response to floods onset shocks such as floods and conflicts 2.3: Cash Emergency COVID-19 response transfers for shock response Drought response safety net program based on a pre-defined satellite-based triggering mechanism Component 3: CfW for Resilience (Total US$18 million) Payment of cash transfers 3. CfW for Design and pilot new accompanying Implementation of village level accompanying resilience (Part C) measures to strengthen the sustainability measures designed increase the impact and of microprojects and increase resilience of sustainability of microprojects communities Component 4: Project Management (Total US$20 million) 4. Project Management Support management of the Project (Part D) Page 23 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) CHANGES IN BUDGET ALLOCATION Table 3. Revised allocation of funds by component (US$ million) Components Parent Restructured AF project Project TOTAL IDA IDA TOTAL grant credit TF AF Component 1 5.0 6.5 0 0 3.5 3.5 10.0 Component 2 48.0 70.2 50.0 15.3 26.5 91.8 162.0 Cash CTs in rural areas 23.8 43.5 43.5 67.3 transfers Medium-term COVID- for 19 response in urban resilience areas 0 0 0 22.5 22.5 22.5 Accompanying measures HC 0 0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Productive inclusion 6.4 0 10.3 1.5 11.8 18.2 Shock response programs 40.0 6.5 2.5 9.0 49.0 Component 3 18.5 3.3 0 14.7 14.7 18.0 Component 4 8.5 0 0 20.0 20.0 20.0 TOTAL 80.0 80.0 50.0 50.0 30.0 130.0 210.0 CHANGES IN FINANCING CATEGORIES 50. Additional categories will be added to the existing categories under the Project to facilitate monitoring of implementation. These refer to the funding that has been designated for the cash transfer component of the productive inclusion accompanying measures, and for medium-term support to the beneficiaries of COVID-19 emergency response program, and for Project Management. While the productive inclusion accompanying measures have been envisaged from the beginning of the Project, the financing for these measures was initially included within Categories 1 (for non-monetary portion of the program) and 2 (for cash transfers). The proposed revision will introduce a new category “Cash Transfers for Productive Inclusion” to facilitate monitoring of the implementation of this program. Since, due to envisaged sequencing of program implementation, the implementation of productive inclusion accompanying measures is only planned to start by mid-2021, no transfers that would qualify under the new category have so far been made under the Project. A new Category “Cash Transfers under Part B.1(a)(ii) of the Project” has been added for the cash transfers to support the medium and long-term recovery of 30,000 households impacted by the COVID-19 shock that will be covered by the SASPP grant. Finally, Category 1, which is covering goods, works, non-consulting services, transfer fees and operating costs was divided into two: Category 1 that will include goods, works, non- consulting services, transfer fees and operating costs related to the strengthening of the adaptive system and implementation of accompanying measures and cash transfer programs, and Category 7 which will cover all the costs of goods, works, non-consulting services, transfer fees and operating costs for Project Management. Page 24 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) CHANGE OF THE CLOSING DATE OF THE PROJECT 51. A two-year extension of the original closing date to June 30, 2026 of the parent Project is proposed to ensure successful implementation and achievement of Project objectives. 52. The closing date for the SASPP grant is June 30, 2024, and the disbursement schedule that is being put in place ensures full utilization of the Grant financing by its closing date. CLIMATE AND DISASTER RISK SCREENING, ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION 53. Climate and disaster risks screening, adaptation and mitigation. Niger is at constant risk and exposure to climate and geographical hazards as exemplified by the recent floods that have affected about 490,000 people throughout the country in September 2020. Recent climate trends and projected climate change, including increasing temperatures, elevated evaporation rates, heavy rainfall events and potentially increased rainfall variability, may exacerbate existing challenges related to drought, floods and heat waves. The ASP2 is helping Niger to address climate vulnerability through its ASP system in several ways: • Component 1 will strengthen the capacity of the Niger social safety nets system to respond to climate shocks : i) by supporting the capacity of the EWS to collect, analyze and disseminate data on climate related shocks; ii) by establishing a disaster risk financing mechanism for scaling up the safety net systems in response to climate shocks; and iii) by supporting the expansion of the USR which will ease and speed up the implementation of cash transfer assistance in response to shocks; • Sub-component 2.1 will finance a large extension of the cash transfer for resilience program, which will help 120,000 households, including those particularly hit by the COVID-19 shock, to mitigate the negative impacts of climate shocks and prevent the use of negative coping mechanisms that can have long-term detrimental effects on human capital accumulation. The cash transfer for resilience program, which has been shown to be effective in helping poor households adapting to climate shocks, will be expanded in areas highly vulnerable to climate shocks; • Sub-component 2.3 will support the Government’s emergency COVID-19 shock response to help households sustain consumption and ensure appropriate coping in the face of a combined impact of the pandemic and climate shocks like flooding and drought; • Component 3 will leverage the CfW component to contribute to climate adaptation (CA) and mitigation by promoting microprojects such as half-moons and other rainwater harvesting techniques that have the potential to reduce soil degradation and increase yield and by providing accompanying measures to contribute to the sustainability of the microprojects, including community-level sensitization on land and property rights, land degradation, and resilience. Page 25 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) III. KEY RISKS 54. The overall risk remains Substantial. The rating for each high or substantial risk category is detailed below. 55. The Political and Governance risk is assessed as High. Parliamentary and the presidential elections are ongoing and the new Government is expected to be sworn in by April 2021. Potential changes in the Government could lead to unexpected realignments in the Government's policy objectives, as well as in changes in key technical counterparts. It could also result in a further increase in security risks across the country especially in the context of high security threat mainly driven from neighboring countries (Mali, Libya, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Chad). The political risks will be mitigated by: i) strengthening the support to the Project from all levels/parts of the society (government, population, local authorities, civil society) and ii) ensuring that the work undertaken under the Project is supported by a broad coalition of social protection stakeholders as well as donors, including WFP, UNICEF, and European Union. The volatile security situation in some regions will remain a challenge to implementation especially in three out of the eight regions within the country currently under the state of emergency due to security reasons. This situation may slow down the project implementation with security threats to the project activities, beneficiaries and staff. A security management plan will be carried out by the counterpart to ensure all the mitigating measures are clearly defined and the PIU will continue closely monitoring the situation and ensuring that all the precautions are put in place to ensure safe implementation of the Project. Also, where possible the Project will aim to reduce the distribution of cash by relying on the use of digital payments. Digital technologies, remote monitoring arrangements (e.g. Geo-Enabling Initiative for Monitoring and Supervisions, GEMS) and the use of third-party monitoring when feasible will help project monitoring and facilitate continuity of business operations. 56. The Macroeconomic risk is assessed as Substantial. Niger’s economic outlook remains vulnerable to external shocks related to volatile global oil demand and commodity prices. The COVID-19 pandemic crisis also resulted in important economic downturn which will constrain the Government ability to sustain productive investments and social expenditures. Poverty and vulnerability may increase due to economic downturn with high risk of social instability. Domestic risks include weather shocks, security challenges, social unrest and a slow pace of implementation of structural and institutional reforms. A close policy dialogue will continue to ensure required reforms are implemented to improve the efficiency and the sustainability of the national social protection sector. 57. The Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability risk is assessed as Substantial. The capacity constraints of the counterpart ministry and the DN continue to represent a substantial risk to achieving key outcome indicators, especially those related to Component 1. This risk will be mitigated by financing technical assistance and capacity-building activities. The DN has recently benefitted from support funded by development partners and regional institutions and has gained substantial experience which will reduce the risks related to institutional capacity for implementation. 58. Fiduciary risks are Substantial, with limited procurement and FM capacity in the public sector. Perception of corruption is still high in the country. Niger was ranked 112 of 180 countries surveyed in the Transparency International 2017 corruption ranking, although firms and citizens report significant less experience of corruption than other countries in the region. Procurement and FM arrangements are designed to mitigate fiduciary risks through regular financial and procurement planning and reporting, following World Bank and GoN guidelines and practices. Page 26 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) 59. Other risks, related to the fragile and insecure environment, as described in the CPF, are rated High. The rating reflects the delays to respond to the overriding needs for humanitarian assistance, the impact of refugees on the quality of intervention, the difficulty in assessing the effectiveness of interventions in insecure areas, and the potential for a reallocation of public resources from projects toward security objectives. The proposed AF will help addressing the drivers of fragility by focusing its interventions on the poor and vulnerable regions at risk of increased fragility. Coordination and synergies will be built with both the PEJIP and the PARCA, to leverage investments that can reduce risks of future conflict and promote social cohesion. IV. APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Economic and Financial Analysis 60. The expansion of the coverage of predictable multi-year cash transfers to poor and vulnerable households is expected to foster their resilience and mitigate the negative welfare effects of climate and other shocks. Located in the semi-arid Sahel region on the edge of the Sahara Desert, Niger’s rural population is highly exposed to climatic shocks, which have detrimental effects on rural households and produce large welfare costs. The effects of these shocks are estimated to produce a decline in household consumption of 31-48 percent and lead households to resort to a wide range of costly coping strategies (Annan and Sanoh 2018). A study showed that the regular ASP1 cash transfers were able to mitigate the welfare effects of climatic shocks to targeted poor households in rural Niger. Cash transfers increased household consumption by 10 percent on average and this was largely evident among households affected by droughts. Cash transfer beneficiary households had more savings and higher earnings from non-agricultural and agricultural activities after the occurrence of shocks (Premand et al. 2020). The AF expansion of the core cash transfers is expected to contribute to increase resilience and mitigate the welfare costs of shocks of a wider segment of the poor and vulnerable population. 61. Short and medium-term support to COVID-19 affected households is expected to reduce the economic costs of increased numbers of new poor in the next years. At global level, poverty projections suggest that the socio- economic impact of the crisis is likely to be significant. Estimates based on growth projections from June 2020 Global Economic Prospects report show that, when compared with pre-crisis forecasts, COVID-19 could push additional 71 to 100 million people into extreme poverty in 2020 (World Bank Projected poverty impacts of COVID-19, June 2020). Only in Niger, the downside prospect of a five percent contraction of GDP could push more than 270,000 people into poverty in 2020. By 2022 the number of new poor on account of COVID-19 could reach nearly one million, representing an increase of 10 percent from current levels27. Measures such as emergency cash transfers to households affected by COVID-19 and the inclusion of the most vulnerable into the regular cash transfers are expected to mitigate the prospect of several thousands of households falling into poverty as a result of COVID-19 in the coming years. 62. The expansion of the USR database accompanied by data sharing is expected to contribute to the efficiency of the social protection sector. The AF will allow for including extra 210,000 households in the social registry for a total of 640,000 households and for defining data sharing protocols so that other institutions can access the database. The social registry database has already been used by other government programs28 to target 27 Calculated on a poverty rate of 45.1 percent (2014). 28 Conditional Cash Transfers to 7,200 School Girls in 2018; ASP1 horizontal expansion in Diffa and Agadez 2017. Page 27 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) and register beneficiaries. These programs have specifically used the available categorical and socio-economic data (PMT classification of poor households) to identify eligible beneficiaries, without the need to conduct ad- hoc surveys. The cost of carrying out a socio-economic survey for the classification of poor households is estimated at US$30 per beneficiary in Niger. For programs targeting 20 percent of the population, the use of data readily available in the USR could represent a potential economy of US$150,000 for every 1,000 eligible beneficiaries identified. 63. The expansion of productive inclusion measures to 60,000 households is expected to generate net gains in terms of households’ expenditures. A package of measures to promote productive inclusion and support livelihoods among 15,000 households was developed and piloted as part of SNP, in 2018. The evaluation of this pilot showed a significant impact on economic activities and diversification, well-being and food security, social and financial inclusion, as well as women’s empowerment. The productive inclusion package consisting of a combination of seven training modules29 with productive grants resulted in an impact on household consumption exceeding of 20 percent the cost of the package after 18 months. Few programs have proven to be that cost-effective in such a short time. B. Technical 64. The first SNP benefited from four impact evaluations. Lessons learned from the impact evaluations as well as from M&E data gathered during the implementation of the SNP were incorporated in the ASP2 design. 65. Component 2 builds on lessons learned from programs that a combination of cash transfers and a set of productive accompanying measures which are a key driver of household resilience to climate change. The productive measures include the creation and coaching of beneficiary groups, the facilitation of savings, community sensitization on aspirations and social norms, life skills training, micro-entrepreneurship training, a one-time lump-sum cash grant, as well as market access facilitation. The design of the project adopts the lessons from the SNP that identified its package of interventions based on diagnostic studies conducted in each country including Niger and tested different delivery models across countries. 66. Component 3 incorporated the lessons generated under the SNP to address asset sustainability. Based on these lessons, the duration of micro-projects was extended to two years and included a set of accompanying measures aimed at maximizing the sustainability of micro-projects and their impact on resilience. These measures strengthened the sustainability and ensured strong performance of the CfW program. According to the GoN’s evaluation, the beneficiaries and key stakeholders of the program perceived the CfW activities as a strong contributor to greater social cohesion and a reduction in youth unemployment and migration in the project areas. C. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements 67. The ASP2 implementation will be carried out in coordination with the DN and the Ministry of Employment, Work and Social Protection in charge of Social Protection in Niger. Technical assistance will also be provided to 29Basic groups organization and coaching, village saving and credit association, community awareness on social norms and aspiration, life skills training, entrepreneurship training, productive grants and facilitation to market access. Page 28 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) the Inter-ministerial Committee for Social Protection, which is leading the development of the roadmap for policy reforms towards more ASP system, with more balanced spending between shock-response and core safety nets. 68. The AF will also strengthen the DN, in particular its EWS and M&E units. The EWS unit will be strengthened in its capacity to collect, exchange, manage and analyze early warning data that can then be used to timely scale up the safety net system in response to shocks. The AF will support the M&E unit in the creation of an information management system, which will improve its capacity to plan, monitor, and coordinate safety nets. The M&E system will be a powerful tool to evaluate the impact of interventions and provide lessons for improving the design and management of future activities. The AF will continue the efforts aimed at establishing the USR initiated with the SNP. While under the SNP, the USR was anchored under the DN’s Permanent Secretariat, the ASP2 will contribute to make the technical implementation unit operational by strengthening its human capacity and ensuring the necessary equipment. Figure 1. PIU Structure 69. The Project will continue to be implemented by the PIU, which will maintain the same structure and ways of working but will be strengthened to support the implementation of the AF. In particular, a shock response program specialist will be hired in the PIU to support the implementation of the shock response programs. Since 2017, the PIU operates under the CFS, within the DN. As CFS’s implementation arm, the PIU counts on a national office in Niamey, regional offices, and local staff at commune level. Its composition as well as the roles and responsibilities of each staff are specified in the Project Implementation Manual (PIM), which shall be revised in accordance to the Project needs. At present, PIU’s key national staff consists of a coordinator, specialists for cash transfers for resilience, CfW, accompanying measures, M&E, communications, environmental and social safeguards, a procurement specialist, FM specialist, a principal accountant, an accountant, three regional administrative and accounting assistants, one internal auditor, and one internal controller. Each regional office includes a regional representative, an executive and financial assistant, and a regional supervision officer. At a Page 29 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) commune level, a focal point is responsible for supervising and coordinating filed-level activities. Moreover, a number of local field staff (animators/social workers) support the implementation of activities in the villages. The existing structure with the addition of the shock response specialist has been assessed as sufficient to support to expansion of the Project activities (see Figure 1). However, it will continue to be assessed during implementation to inform relevant adjustments as warranted, which will be reflected in the revised PIM. D. Financial Management 70. No changes will be made to the FM system developed for the parent Project, which is fully functional and performing well. The PIU that is currently implementing the ASP2 and had implemented the SNP will continue to manage the overall fiduciary responsibilities for the AF. 71. The ASP2 continues to maintain acceptable FM and disbursement arrangements, which are adequate for the AF as per the requirements under World Bank Policy and Procedure for IPF operations. There are no overdue un-audited interim financial reports nor audit reports. The overall fiduciary risk for the original project is rated as “substantial” mainly due to limited procurement and FM capacity in the public sector in Niger. The overall FM performance of the original project was rated “moderately satisfactory” following the last FM supervision mission of December 2020 as the capacity on regional level is still being strengthened in some regions. 72. The project implementing agency is adequately staffed with experienced and qualified personnel for FM to continue to handle the workload of the project. For the AF, there is no need to recruit other FM staff. ASP2 already has an approved FM procedures manual, which will be followed under the AF. 73. The flow of funds of the AF will also follow the arrangements used in the parent project. There is no need to open a new Designated Account (DA). The DA used to receive the initial financing proceeds will be used to receive the AF proceeds. As in the original project, the disbursements will be based on Statements of Expenditures. Other disbursement methods such as reimbursement, special commitment and for instance direct payment will apply as well. Additional instructions for disbursement would remain the same and would be provided in the Disbursement and Financial Information Letter for this AF. 74. The accounts of the AF will be kept in the existing TomPro accounting software used for the original financing activities. However, the accounting system needs to be calibrated to fit the AF needs. As in the initial financing, the PIU will prepare and submit acceptable unaudited IFRs to the World Bank within 45 days after the end of each semester including information related to the AF 75. No separate audit report would be required with respect to the AF, which will be added to the financial statements of the original Project with separate disclosures in the notes to the financial statements. The audits will be conducted based on International Standards on Auditing, by a firm acceptable to the World Bank. Such an audit report will be submitted to the World Bank on a yearly basis, along with the respective management letters within six (6) months of the end of the fiscal year. In addition, the project will sign a memorandum of understanding with the General Inspection of Finance (Inspection Générale des Finances) to perform a bi-annual ex post verification of expenses. 76. The residual FM risk for the project after the mitigating measures is assessed to be “substantial”. For specific actions on FM, see Table 7. Page 30 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) Table 7. FM action plan Responsible Action to be taken Expected completion date body 1 Migrate the existing TomPro accounting Within one month after Project PIU software to include the AF activities effectiveness 2 Strengthen control mechanism for cash transfers Within three months after Project PIU and payments with the support of the Ministry effectiveness of Finance 3 Extend the terms of reference (ToR) of the One month after Project PIU external auditor to cover the AF activities effectiveness E. Procurement 77. Applicable procurement rules and procedures. The procurement arrangements under the parent Project will be retained under the AF. Procurement for goods, works, and non-consulting and consulting services for the project will be done in accordance with the procedures specified in the ‘World Bank Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers’, dated July 2016, revised November 2017 and August 2018 and the World Bank’s Anti - Corruption Guidelines: ‘Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants , dated October 15, 2006 and revised in January 2011 and as of July 1, 2016, as well as the provisions stipulated in the Financing Agreement. 78. All goods, works, and non-consulting services will be procured in accordance with the requirements set forth or referred to in section VI. The approved selection methods include Goods, Works, and Non-Consulting Services of the Procurement Regulations and the consulting services will be procured in accordance with the requirements set forth or referred to in section VII. The approved selection methods include Consulting Services of the Procurement Regulations, the Project Procurement Strategy for Development [PPSD], and the Procurement Plan approved by the World Bank. 79. PPSD. The implementing agency submitted a PPSD including their draft procurement plan that was reviewed and approved. The strategy is quite similar to the one developed for the parent Project. The main change is the fact that the implementing agency team has been strengthened to reflect the additional workload. In general, the market responded quite well to calls for tenders and requests for proposals. The contracts were carried out and managed in a satisfactory manner. The matter of concern is the volatility of the security situation. During the implementation of the parent Project, the parties managed to handle this issue without too much trouble, the experience gained should help better manage this risk in the future. 80. Procurement Plan. The Procurement Plan was finalized by the Technical Committee in charge of the project preparation and approved. F. Social and Environment Safeguards remain the same as the original project. 81. Policies triggered. To comply with safeguards requirement, three environmental and social policies are still triggered: Environmental Assessment (OP 4.01), Pest Management (OP 4.09), and Involuntary Resettlement (OP 4.12). The Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF), a Pesticide Management Plan (PMP), and the Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF), have been updated and redisclosed on February 4, 2021. Page 31 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) These instruments will still provide the same basic principles and prerogatives to be followed once details of the physical footprint of the areas of new project interventions are known. Wherever deemed necessary, the Borrower will prepare a site-specific Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP). The Project Information and Integrated Safeguards Data Sheet has been updated for additional activities and redisclosed on February 1, 2021. 82. Social risks management. The proposed AF is a low-risk operation from a social safeguards point of view. Physical displacement is not expected. The Project triggers OP/BP 4.12 (Involuntary Resettlement) as it may induce economic displacement of project-affected populations with respect to activities planned under Component 3. Indeed, some activities may result in demand for land acquisition as well as in social impacts on people and properties. As a consequence, the Borrower may be required to (a) scope and assess the social impacts associated with subprojects if necessary; (b) undertake census, asset enumeration, and valuation of affected properties in cases of compensations and determine workable arrangements/framework for compensation payment; (c) ensure that client has budget for compensation when required; (d) initiate and sustain meaningful consultations with local communities with the aim to creating awareness about the positive and negative impacts of the project; (e) resolve and/or incorporate stakeholder concerns in project design and implementation; and (f) hire experienced and well-qualified safeguards personnel and so on for project implementation. Some of the sites for investment may not be determined before implementation. If required, site-specific abbreviated or full Resettlement Action Plans will be developed once sites are determined and involuntary resettlement is unavoidable. These Resettlement Action Plans will also be disclosed in country and at the World Bank website and implemented before civil works commence. Grievance Redress Committees have been established in all the districts and operationalized under the parent project. 83. Security. As of now, there have been no security incidents under the on-going Project, and the security risk is assessed as “high”. While the existing safeguard regulations under the project address the existing risks adequately, the Security Management Plan (SMP) will be prepared within six months from the effectiveness of the AF as a part of strengthening of the implementation framework under the AF. The security situation is closely monitored and, in case of increased security risk, the following steps are taken: (a) high risk security areas are excluded from the Project; (b) for areas that become high risk security areas during the on-going implementation, the implementation is immediately halted; an d (c) implementation in villages that are inaccessible due to security risks in the surrounding areas is halted, and the payments schedule adjusted. While the possible use of military escorts has been envisaged in high risk areas, this option will only be considered after it has been reassessed as a part of preparation of the SMP. 84. Gender and gender-based violence. The Project recognizes the importance of gender-related constraints to women’s full participation in social and economic activities and includes a set of interventions (community sensitization, outreach activities, and mentoring) to address some of these barriers including sociocultural norms. Through the mentoring of beneficiaries by village coaches and village assemblies organized by field workers on human capital accompanying measures, the Project will foster continuous and dynamic partnership with community actors. Active engagement with communities will be a priority over the course of project implementation, including through sensitization campaigns to educate and raise the awareness of women about their rights. Such an approach has been shown to prevent gender-based violence. The screening of risk for harassment and gender-based violence was conducted as a part of preparation of the AF, and the risk was assessed as moderate. Nevertheless, the Sexual Exploitation and Abuse/Sexual Harassment (SEA/SH) Action Plan will be prepared and adopted within six months following the effectiveness for the Project implementation Page 32 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) to further strengthen the mitigation measures. Also, a formal code of conduct explicitly prohibiting sexual exploitation, abuse and harassment will be put in place and all Project staff will be required to sign it. 85. Data protection. The existing beneficiary registry ensures protection of personal information. Development of the USR is one of the major project activities focused on building adaptive capacity of the system. This work, which is being further strengthened under the AF, includes development of institutional and regulatory framework for the USR, including all the data protection protocols, strengthening of its implementation infrastructure, as well as the expansion of the data collection efforts to increase number of households in the USR. All the requirements to ensure data integrity and data protection will be put in place, during implementation, in close collaboration with WURI Project and the HAPDP created by the Government. 86. Citizens’ engagement. Citizens and civil society organizations are key partners in the planning and implementation of project activities and will be involved in monitoring implementation. This will help improve the economic, social, and environmental performance of the Project, its sustainability, community ownership, and transparency and accountability in implementation. In this regard, the proposed Project will assess the citizens’ engagement by conducting a satisfaction survey at Project mid-term review to assess stakeholders and beneficiaries’ satisfaction, and the feedback from the survey will be used to inform strengthening of Project interventions. Also, the Project will finance the development of an integrated phone/SMS-based communication system with modules delivering key messages to beneficiaries regarding the social programs, including COVID-19 cash transfer program, and COVID-19 prevention, as well as a beneficiary feedback module that will allow beneficiaries to provide feedback on the programs. 87. GRM. The GRM system exists and PIU staff and service providers received training on the functionality of the GRM system. Before initiating the program implementation in some community, a GRM system is put in place and all the stakeholders are informed. The GRM relies on committees that are set up at the level of each village to register complaints, report them to the PIU, and ensure that they are resolved. All members of these committees are trained by the PIU, and they participate in all implementation activities including targeting, registration and payment of beneficiaries. Also, the Project will finance the strengthening of the GRM system by establishment of a toll-free phone number to channel grievances from all safety net interventions as part of an integrated and transparent GRM system. 88. Some negative environmental and social impacts and risks that are mostly site-specific and easily manageable (typical of Category B projects) are expected under Component 3: Activities are related to the CfW program and include village-level accompanying measures focusing on topics related to land, property rights, land degradation, and resilience. Under Component 2, different accompanying measures are also expected to have positive environmental and social impacts, because they will be geared toward helping rural households develop community-based interventions as a source of resilience in areas affected by insecurity or displacement. Under Component 1, the payment mechanisms for social transfers, which will particularly benefit populations affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, will be strengthened and the USR will be expanded to include the entire population in the most vulnerable areas in terms of food insecurity, poverty and exposure to climate shocks. 89. Capacity-building and M&E. Additional capacity-building requirements are budgeted for under the AF to implement possible capacity improvement measures. Working in close collaboration with the PIU, the National Office for Environmental Studies and Impact Evaluation (Bureau d'Evaluation Environnementale et des Etudes d'Impacts, BEEEI) of the Ministry of Environment will still lead monitoring and overseeing of the Page 33 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) implementation of environmental and social risks management, including the validation of the screening process for CfW activities and genuine consultation of beneficiaries. The PIU will also ensure that environmental and social M&E reports are prepared and submitted timely. Both the PIU and BEEEI will work closely with the World Bank’s social and environmental safeguards specialists to ensure due diligence, compliance, and capacity strengthening on safeguards. V. WORLD BANK GRIEVANCE REDRESS 90. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World Bank (WB) supported project may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance redress mechanisms or the WB’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed in order to address project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the WB’s independent Inspection Panel which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of WB non- compliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints may be submitted at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank's attention, and Bank Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank’s corporate Grievance Redress Service (GRS), please visit http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/products-and- services/grievance-redress-service. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank Inspection Panel, please visit www.inspectionpanel.org Page 34 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) VI. SUMMARY TABLE OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ VII. DETAILED CHANGE(S) COMPONENTS Current Component Name Current Cost Action Proposed Component Proposed Cost (US$, (US$, millions) Name millions) Strengthening the Adaptive 5.00 Revised Strengthening the 10.00 and Scalable Safety Net Adaptive and Scalable System Safety Net System Cash Transfers and 48.00 Revised Cash Transfers and 162.00 Accompanying Measures Accompanying Page 35 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) Measures Cash for Work for Resilience 18.50 Revised Cash for Work for 18.00 Resilience Project Management 8.50 Revised Project Management 20.00 TOTAL 80.00 210.00 LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Ln/Cr/Tf Status Original Closing Current Proposed Proposed Deadline Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications IDA-D4200 Effective 30-Jun-2024 30-Jun-2024 30-Jun-2026 30-Oct-2026 REALLOCATION BETWEEN DISBURSEMENT CATEGORIES Financing % Current Allocation Actuals + Committed Proposed Allocation (Type Total) Current Proposed REALLOCATION NEW IDA-D4200-001 | Currency: XDR iLap Category Sequence No: 1 Current Expenditure Category: OC,G,W,NCS,CS,TN &TFpt B1b,B3b &C1b 6,700,000.00 6,698,422.38 9,400,000.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 2 Current Expenditure Category: CSH TRANSFER PRT B1a 17,400,000.00 5,140,220.65 17,200,000.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 3 Current Expenditure Category: CSH TRANSFER FOR SHOCK PRT B3a 28,500,000.00 17,906,186.31 29,000,000.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 4 Current Expenditure Category: CfW TRANSFER PRT C1a 5,300,000.00 1,006,007.94 2,300,000.00 100.00 100.00 Total 57,900,000.00 35,618,496.80 57,900,000.00 Page 36 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) Expected Disbursements (in US$) DISBURSTBL Fiscal Year Annual Cumulative 2019 1,704,500.00 1,704,500.00 2020 10,629,320.00 12,333,820.00 2021 24,506,067.00 36,839,887.00 2022 51,000,000.00 87,839,887.00 2023 40,000,000.00 127,839,887.00 2024 40,000,000.00 167,839,887.00 2025 40,000,000.00 207,839,887.00 2026 2,160,113.00 210,000,000.00 SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Latest ISR Rating Current Rating Political and Governance ⚫ High ⚫ High Macroeconomic ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Low Institutional Capacity for Implementation and ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Sustainability Fiduciary ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Environment and Social ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Stakeholders ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Other ⚫ High Overall ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial LEGAL COVENANTS2 LEGAL COVENANTS – Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) Sections and Description The Recipient shall, no later than six (6) months after the Effective Date, prepare, disclose, consult upon, and adopt, the Security Management Plan, in form and manner satisfactory to the Association. Page 37 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) The Recipient shall, no later than six (6) months after the Effective Date, prepare, disclose, consult upon, and adopt, the Sexual Exploitation, Abuse and Harassment Action Plan, including a pertinent code of conduct to be required to be adhered to by all staff of the Recipient taking part in the implementation of the Project, in form and manner satisfactory to the Association. The Recipient shall prepare and adopt the Project Implementation Manual and the Manual of Administrative, Financial and Accounting Procedures (“Project Manuals”) no later than 3 months after the Effective Date, in form and substance satisfactory to the Association. The Project Implementation Manual shall include inter alia (i) descriptions of the procedures for and the identification, selection and registration of the respective Eligible Beneficiaries, and (ii) the selection process for any service providers to be contracted for under Section I.B.1.2, I.B.1.4, I.B.2.1 and I.B.3.1 of this Schedule 2. Conditions Type Description Effectiveness The Additional Condition of Effectiveness consists of the following, namely that the SASPP Grant Agreement has been executed and delivered and all conditions precedent to its effectiveness or to the right of the Recipient to make withdrawals under it (other than the effectiveness of this Agreement) have been fulfilled. Page 38 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) VIII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING Results Framework COUNTRY: Niger Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing Project Development Objective(s) The PDO is to improve the capacity of the Niger adaptive safety nets system to respond to shocks and to provide access for poor and vulnerable people to safety nets and accompanying measures. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 Improve capacity of the safety net system for shock response and poverty reduction (Action: This Objective has been Revised) Capacity of the adaptive SN system to coordinate programs and to 1.00 3.00 respond to shocks (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Revised target value revised from 2 to 3 Capacity of implementing ASP programs (Number) 5.00 6.00 Rationale: Action: This indicator has been added description of the indicator Revised Effectiveness of national SP systems to address CA and DRM 3.00 6.00 (Number) Page 39 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 Rationale: Action: This indicator has been description of the indicator added Revised Number of people included in the Unified Social Registry 0.00 800,000.00 (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been revised description of the indicator and target value revised from 100,000 to 800,000 Revised Increased effectiveness: time to deliver support from trigger 3.00 2.00 event (Months) Beneficiaries receiving transfers 0.00 30,000.00 via mobile accounts (Number) Action: This indicator is New Increase consumption and improve No Yes food security (Yes/No) beneficiaries of cash transfer (Number) 0.00 20,000.00 120,000.00 Rationale: Action: This indicator has been revised target value from 58,500 to 120,000 Revised Percentage of cash transfer beneficiaries targeted in RMR 0.00 15.00 25.00 35.00 40.00 priority areas (Percentage) Page 40 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 Rationale: Action: This indicator has been typos in the title corrected Revised beneficiaries of human capital accompanying measures 0.00 20,000.00 100,000.00 (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been revised title and target values from 50,000 to 100,000 Revised Beneficiaries of shock response 250,000.00 430,000.00 programs (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been revised title and end target from 8,500 to 430,000 Revised Beneficiaries and stakeholder’s 0.00 1.00 2.00 satisfaction surveys (Number) Change behavior, improving early childhood parenting practices No Yes (Yes/No) Beneficiaries of ECD accompanying measures 0.00 50,000.00 changing at least 5 behaviours (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Increased economic diversification productivity and earnings (Yes/No) No Yes beneficiaries of Productive 0.00 5,000.00 7,500.00 50,000.00 Inclusion package (Number) Page 41 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 Rationale: Action: This indicator has been revised end target from 10,000 to 50,000 Revised Smooth consumption and build community assets (Yes/No) No Yes Beneficiaries of Cash for Work (Number) 0.00 15,000.00 30,000.00 45,000.00 66,000.00 PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 Develop a M&E system at DN level and set up an information management system within the DN Implement tool to monitoring safety nets interventions by DN (Yes/No) No Yes The DN produces triggers for shock No Yes response (Yes/No) Impact evaluation generating lessons No Yes (Yes/No) The MIS is functional (Yes/No) No Yes Implement cash transfers and accompanying measures Number of beneficiaries registered for cash transfers (Number) 29,000.00 100,000.00 Page 42 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Revised end target value changed from 50,000 to 100,000 Percentage of beneficiaries receiving cash transfers (Percentage) 0.00 100.00 Percentage of beneficiaires participating in the accompanying measures 0.00 100.00 (Percentage) Percentage of beneficiaries participating 0.00 100.00 in productive Inclusion (Percentage) Percentage of beneficiaries participating in the emergency cash transfer 0.00 100.00 (Percentage) Percentage of women who participate in 0.00 50.00 70.00 80.00 GERME training (Percentage) Women with children who undergo malnutrition and child development 0.00 50.00 70.00 80.00 screening (Percentage) Number of beneficiaries of cash transfer 29,000.00 110,000.00 for resilience (Number) Action: This indicator is New Medium-term COVID-19 response 0.00 30,000.00 beneficiaries (Number) Action: This indicator is New Number of beneficiaries of shock- 250,000.00 430,000.00 response program (Number) Action: This indicator is New Page 43 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 Implement Cash for work Number of days of work (Number 0.00 2,000,000.00 3,960,000.00 (Thousand)) Number of microprojects (Number) 0.00 100.00 200.00 IO Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators Mapped Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection Capacity of the adaptive SN Capacity of the adaptive SN system to Administrative Project Implementation system to coordinate Annual Annual report coordinate programs and to respond to data Unit (PIU) programs and to respond shocks to shocks Composite indicator with ratings from 1 to 6. A country system will include a set of programs and following elements Secondary data (available for certain Administrative Capacity of implementing ASP Annual collection, key informant PIU programs or system wide): data programs interview (i) Dedicated institutions and staff; (ii) Targeting system – Criteria established, list of potential beneficiaries available; (iii) MIS functioning – Capable Page 44 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) of storing potential and actual beneficiaries, generate lists for registration, payment and follow-up; (iv) Existence and effectiveness of payment system; (v) Existence and effectiveness of the grievance mechanisms; (vi) Existence and effectiveness of monitoring and evaluation. A rating of 1 corresponds to: No effective elements of the core SP system are in place; 2 Some elements of the core SP system have been developed, but are not yet fully operational;3 corresponds to: Some elements of the core SP system have been developed and are operational, but are not used correctly/efficiently; 4 corresponds to : Some elements of the core SP system are operational and used correctly/efficiently, but more work is needed for missing elements; 5 corresponds to: All Page 45 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) elements of the core SP system are operational, but are not used correctly/efficiently; 6 correspond to : All key elements of the core SP system are in place and are used correctly/effectively Composite indicator with ratings from 1 to 6 [see results framework of the adaptive social protection TF for details on the rating system and scales]. A rating Administrative Secondary data Effectiveness of national SP systems of 1 corresponds to the Annual data, collection and interview PIU to address CA and DRM following: the SP system interview with key informant has no clear links with CCA and DRM and Government has no plans for such links. No existing SP strategy with CCA and DRM aspects included. RSU Secondary data Project Implementation Number of people included in the Number of people included Annual implementati collection Unit Unified Social Registry in the USR on unit Interview with Administrative Project Implementation Increased effectiveness: time to Annual beneficiaries and tracer data Unit deliver support from trigger event survey Beneficiaries receiving transfers via Number of beneficiaries Every six Administrative Data collection PIU mobile accounts receiving transfers through months data Page 46 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) mobile accounts Administrative Increase consumption and improve food Annual Annual report PIU data security Each three Beneficiaries of cash Tracer survey Primary data collection PIU beneficiaries of cash transfer months transfers Percentage of cash transfer Each three Tracer survey Primary data collection PIU beneficiaries targeted in RMR priority months areas number of beneficiaries of Administrative beneficiaries of human capital Quarterly Tracer survey PIU human capital data accompanying measures accompanying measures number of beneficiaries Administrative Beneficiaries of shock response Quarterly Tracer survey PIU receiving the shock data programs response cash transfers One survey Primary data collection Beneficiaries and stakeholder’s each two Tracer survey via beneficiaries PIU satisfaction surveys years Monitoring survey Administrative Change behavior, improving early Annual Annual report PIU data childhood parenting practices At the end Beneficiaries of ECD accompanying Administrative Change in reporting of the Tracer survey PIU measures changing at least 5 data frequency Project behaviours Administrative Increased economic diversification Annual Tracer survey PIU data productivity and earnings Page 47 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) Every six Administrative beneficiaries of Productive Inclusion beneficiaries of productive Tracer survey PIU months Data package inclusion package Administrative Smooth consumption and build Annual Annual report PIU data community assets Every six Administrative Tracer survey PIU Beneficiaries of Cash for Work months data ME PDO Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators Mapped Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection Administrative Annual report and tracer Implement tool to monitoring safety nets Annual PIU and Dispositif data survey interventions by DN Administrative Annual report and tracer The DN produces triggers for shock Annual PIU and Dispositif data survey response Administrative Annual report and tracer Annual PIU Impact evaluation generating lessons data survey Administrative Annual report and tracer Annual PIU The MIS is functional data survey number of beneficiaries Administrative Number of beneficiaries registered for quarterly Tracer survey PIU registered for cash data cash transfers transfers Percentage of beneficiaries receiving cash Quarterly Administrative Tracer survey PIU transfers data Page 48 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) Administrative Percentage of beneficiaires participating Quarterly Tracer survey PIU data in the accompanying measures Administrative Percentage of beneficiaries participating Quarterly Tracer survey PIU Data in productive Inclusion Administrative Percentage of beneficiaries participating Quarterly Tracer survey PIU data in the emergency cash transfer Administrative Percentage of women who participate in Quarterly Tracer survey PIU data GERME training Women with children who undergo Administrative Quarterly Tracer survey PIU malnutrition and child development data screening Administrative Number of beneficiaries of cash transfer number of cash transfer for quarterly Data collection PIU data for resilience resilience beneficiaries Number of beneficiaries of Administrative Medium-term COVID-19 response quarterly Primary data collection PIU medium-term COVID-19 data beneficiaries response program Administrative Number of beneficiaries of shock- Number of shock-response Quarterly Primary data collection PIU data response program program beneficiaries Administrative Quarterly Tracer survey PIU Number of days of work data Administrative Quarterly Tracer survey PIU Number of microprojects data Page 49 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) ME IO Table SPACE Page 50 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) ANNEX I. Impact of COVID-19 in Niger and Government’s Response 1. The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the development trajectory of an economy suffering from persistent security challenges and cumulative crises. The health impact of COVID-19 in Niger has not been as severe as expected given relatively low number of cases - total 4,458 confirmed cases and 162 deaths. The pandemic, however, has adversely impacted the Nigerien economy. Growth is expected to decline to 0.5 percent in 2020 from 5.8 percent in 2019, and total revenues are set to decline by 10 percent while spending increases by 1.6 percent of GDP, of which 0.8 percent of GDP is directly attributable to fighting the pandemic. The final review of the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program was approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board on Oct. 26, 2020 and negotiations for a new ECF are planned once the new Government is sworn in around April 2021. 2. The pandemic and related economic shutdown and border closures reversed recent achievements in reducing poverty. Results from macro-micro simulations suggest that the poverty rate in Niger would increase by about 1.6 percentage points in 2020, and 370,000 additional people are projected to fall into extreme poverty in 2020. Beyond the monetary dimension, the COVID-19 crisis is also expected to have lasting effects on the non-monetary dimensions of well-being, such as education, health, and food security. 3. The Government was swift to announce containment measures and prepare an emergency response plan to curb the impact of the pandemic. At the onset of the pandemic, and the first confirmed COVID-19 case in Niger on March 19, 2020, the Government took quick measures to contain the spread of the disease, including closing airports, borders, banning travel to and from Niamey, closing schools and recreational areas, and instituting social-distancing measures. Subsequently, the Government presented its COVID-19 Preparation and Response Plan to development partners on March 27, 2020. The Plan estimated costs of about US$2.2 billion (CFAF 1.296 billion) to prepare for and respond to the sanitary, social, and economic impacts of the pandemic. WBG Response and Adjustment to the Country Program 4. Remaining within the broad parameters of the Niger CPF, the WBG program was adjusted to support the GoN’s response to the COVID-19 crisis. These adjustments align with the priorities of the WBG Approach Paper “Saving Lives, Scaling-up Impact and Getting Back on Track”. The World Bank rapidly deployed and re-purposed IDA resources in the FY20-21 pipeline and active portfolio and leveraged trust fund resources to support the country’s COVID-19 Preparation and Response Plan. More specifically the following adjustments to the program were introduced: • Saving lives: mobilizing US$7.8 million under the Regional Epidemic and Diseases Surveillance in West Africa (REDISSE) to support initial health sector activities in partnership with UNICEF; preparing a US$13.9-million COVID-19 Emergency Support Project approved on April 15, 2020; and mobilizing US$5.5 million from the Global Pandemic Fund to strengthen the health system, laboratories, community engagement and training for health workers (in partnership with World Health Organization (WHO)). • Saving livelihoods and protecting the poor: The World Bank revised reform measures under the Fostering Inclusive Growth Development Policy Operation (DPO2) (P173113) to ensure social protection for Page 51 of 52 The World Bank Niger Adaptive Safety Net Project 2 Additional Financing (P173013) 30,000 households and mitigate the impact of other measures on basic services (US$250 million, approved on August 6, 2020). The World Bank reallocated US$46 million under the Adaptive Safety Nets 2 Project to scale up cash transfers to poor and vulnerable households in urban and rural areas; and provide support for weather-related shocks. The program is implemented in partnership with WFP and UNICEF among others. • Under the Climate Smart Agriculture Project (P153420), US$20 million was reallocated to support the agriculture campaign and mitigate food insecurity, including to finance critical inputs for farmers, livestock, irrigation and sustainable land management. • Additional resources were made available under other projects in agriculture, education, water and sanitation, electricity services, public administration and local development to maintain critical public services and support the recovery. 5. In December 2020, the GoN requested World Bank support to help finance their COVID-19 vaccination program. The Government’s goal is to vaccinate 47.78 percent of the population (11 million persons) this year. The total estimated cost is US$136 million towards which the Government has included US$7.4 million in the 2021 budget, leaving a gap of US$128.6 million. The World Bank will provide support to the immediate financing needs of the Government’s COVID-19 vaccination program by mobilizing some US$5 million from the ongoing Population and Health Support Project (P147638) and US$2.5 million from the COVID-19 Emergency Response Project (P173846). Additional US$28 million is being mobilized from IDA financing through an AF to the Emergency Response Project (P173846) which is expected to be delivered in fourth quarter of FY21. This World Bank financing will supplement support from COVAX facility, which will cover vaccine for 20 percent of the population. 6. The World Bank is adapting its portfolio supervision efforts to ensure timely implementation and results despite COVID-19 disruptions. COVID-19 restrictions have compounded access challenges in remote or conflict-affected zones due to security issues. World Bank teams have adapted supervision approaches, utilizing technology and alternative means to continue interface with the clients and monitoring of project activities. PIU have also strengthened and adapted their telecommuting and teleconferencing equipment and facilities to promote social distancing in offices and to work virtually where possible. Selectivity, Complementarity, Partnerships 7. The World Bank’s response is closely coordinated with the IMF, UN, AfDB and other development partners. The World Bank has closely coordinated its health and social protection response with UN specialized agencies. In addition, the World Bank and UNDP jointly financed the Government’s e-governance efforts to connect ministers and key ministry staff and thereby, support the virtual public administration. Further coordination with the United Nations and other partners is being pursued and complementarity is being explored to effectively and efficiently support Government’s efforts to purchase and successfully deploy the COVID-19 vaccines in Niger. The World Bank also continues to re-purpose the existing portfolio and adjust the pipeline in line with COVID-19 and FCV priorities. Page 52 of 52