Document of The World Bank FOR OriqCLAL USE ONLY Report No. P-5079-CM NEMORANDUM AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN OF US$150 MILLION EQUIVALENT TO THE REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON FOR A STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM MAY 16, 1989 Thls docmet has a rerted distribuion and may be nsed by redpients only In the performance of their offcial dties Its contents may not otherwise be disosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS The CPA Franc (CFAF) is tied to the French franc (FF) in the ratio of FF 1 t' CFAF 50. The French franc is currently flosting. The rate of CFAF 305 to the US dollar is used for the economic projections beginning 1989190. Currency unit - CFA Franc (CFAF) US$ 1.00 - CFAF 3t5 CFAF 1.0 billion - US$ 3,3 million SYSTEM OF WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System GLOSSARY OF .ACRONYMS BCD Banque Camerounaise de Developpement BZAC Banque des Etats d'Afrique Centrale BIAOC Banque Internationale pour l'Afrique Occidentale - Cameroun BICIC Banque Internationale pour le Commerce et l'Industrie - Cameroun BPPBC Banque de Paris et des Pays-Bas - Cameroun CAMAIR Cameroon Airlines CDC Cameroon Development Corporation CRTZ Cameroon Television FONADER Ponds National de Developpement Rural HEVECAM Hevea Cameroun ONCPB Office National de Commercialisation des Produits (NPMB) de Base (National Produce Marketing Board) QRs Quantitative Restrictions REFIFERCAM Regime de Fer Camerounais SCB Societe Camerounaise des Banques SGBC Societd Generale des Banques au Cameroun SNEC Socite Nationale des Eaux du Cameroun SKI Societd Nationale d'Investissements SOCAPALM Societ4 Palm SODECAO Soci4td de Developpement de Cacao SODECOTON Soci6te de Developpement de Coton SONEL Societe Nationale d'Electricite UDEAC Union Douaniere des Etats de l'Afrique Centrale FISCAL YEAR July 1 to June 30 Republic of Cameroon FOR OVm CUAL USE ONLY Structural Adjustment Loan Loan Summary Borrower: Republic of Cameroon Amount: US$150 million equivalent Terms: 17 years, including five years of grace, at the Bank's standard variable interest rate Program Descriptions The Loan would support the first phase of the Government's adjustment program for addressing key macro-economic and sectoral issues facing Cameroon over the medium-term. The objective of the program is to redress the recent substantial decline in GDP and to achieve a positive rate of per capita growth by 1995. The basic elements of the program ares (a) restructuring of public finances over the medium-term, through improved programming and budgeting of government resources, better control over government salaries. improvement in the productivity and management of the civil service, and an increase in non-oil tax revenues; (b) restructuring and rehabilitation of the public enterprise and banking sectors; (c) in agriculture, financial stabilization of the marketing structures for the principal export crop (coffee, cocoa, cotton), progressive liberalization of trade in these crops, and creation of incentives to increase food security and promote non-traditional agricultural exports; (d) deregulation of internal commerce with a view towards lowering the domestic cost structure, and rationalization of external trade regulations and effective rates of protection; (e) improvement of incentives for petroleum exploration and production; (f) reorientation of policies in the forestry, health and education sectors; and (g) establishment of specific action programs to reduce the social cost of adjustment. The program is described in detail in the Government's Declaration of Development Strategy (Annex V) and the action program is detailed in the Policy Matrix (Annex VI). The foreign exchange provided under the Loan would be used to finance essential imports. Benefits: The proposed operation would help reestablish basic financial equilibria in the banking, public enterprise and agriculture sectors and shift incentives towards production of tradeable This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. - ii - goods, thereby providing a aound basis for diversified economic growth. The operation will lead to a more efficient use of public resources, stimulate the non-oil productive sectors, and achieve a more appropriate balance between the public and private sectors. The particular benefits from public enterprise adjustment measures are the lessening of the financial burden on the Government, the increased transparency of the financial relations between the State and public enterprises, and the rationalization of resource allocation to these enterprises. Riske: The main risks associated with the proposed operation are that, as a result of social pressure and untested Government implementation capacity, the reform program would be implemented more slowly than expected, or that the measures would not be strong enough to elicit the envisaged increase in private investment and non- oil exports or to increase domestic resource mobilization sufficiently to reduce the budget deficit and conform import demand to projected levels. Estimated Disbursements: The Loan would be disbursed in three equal tranches of US$50 million. The first tranche would be available upon effectiveness, and the second and third tranches, not earlier than March 31, 1990 and December 31, 1990, respectively, upon satisfactory progress in implementation of the program. Special conditions for loan effectiveness and for release of the second and third tranches are presented in Annex III. Retroactive Financings Out of the proceeds of the loan, US$15 million (or lOZ of the total loan) will be disbursed against the country's actual imports, excluding items covered by the negative list, since March 31, 1989, i.e. less than four months prior to the expected date of l^an signing. This retroactive financing is justified by the up-front action already taken by the Government on many important elements of the structural adjustment program. - iii - CAMEROON - STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM TABLE OF CONTENTS Page PART I - THE ECONOMY A. Background g........d............. .......... B. The Current Crisis .....t... .................. C r** 2 C. The Stabilization Plan for Public Finances . .......... 3 D. Structural Issues ......................... . ... ......... 4 PART II - TME STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM A. Objectives and Approach ..................... .............. . 11 B. The First Phase of the Adjustment Program .................. 12 Public Sector Resource Management ....................... 13 Public Enterprise Reform .................................... 15 Financial and Banking Sector .. .......................... 17 Agriculture and Forestry ..... . . .*. .................... 20 Industrial Policy and Trade Reform ....................... 22 Reorientation of Sector Strategies ......* ............... 24 Social Dimensions of Adjustment . ...... ......... 25 PART III- ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPACT OF ADJUSTMENT Medium-Term Prospects for Growth ....oset or v.... th............. 26 External Capital Requirementu . . .................. 29 Creditworthiness and Risk . ...................................... 31 PART IV - THE PROPOSED LOAN ........ ......................................... 33 A. Loan History ...................... ................... 33 B. Loan Amount and Co-financing . ................. . .. ..... . 33 C. Monitorable Actions ....................................... 34 D. Program Management and Monitoring .... ..................... 37 E. Procurement, Disbursement and Auditing ..................... 38 PART V - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS AND STRATEGY .................*........ 38 PART VI - COLLABORATION WITH IMF AND OTHER DONORS .................... 40 PART VII- RECOMMENDATION ..................................... ...... .. 41 - iv - ANNEES ANNEX I - MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS AND PROJECTIONS ANNEX II - SOCIAL INDICATORS ANNEX III - SUPPLEIMENTARY LOAN DATA SHEET ANNEX IV - STATUS GE BANK GROUP OERATIONS ANNEX V - DECLARATION OF DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY ANNEX VI - MATRIX OF POLICY ACTIONS INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT MEMORANDUM AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN OF US$ 150 MILLION EQUIVALENT tO THE REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON FOR A STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM 1. I submit the following memorandum and recommendation on a proposed loan in th- amount of USS 150 million equivalent to i Republic of Cameroon to support the Government's Structural Adjustment Program. The proposed loan would be on standard IBRD terms with 17 years maturity including 5 years of grace. 2. A Country Economic Memorandum (Report No. 6395-CM) was distributed to the Executive Directors in February 1987 and a Financial Sector Report (Report No. 6028-GM) was distributed in June 1986. The report which follows is based on the conclusions of those reports and the findings of three missions for the structural adjustment program that visited Cameroon in July 1988, November 1988 and February/March 1989. Updated country economic data are shown in Annex I. PART I - THE ECONOMY A. Backaround 3. Cameroon, with a per capita GDP of USS 955 and 10.9 million inhabitants in 1987, is one of Africa's most diverse countries in terms of human resources and natural geography. Agriculture, livestock, and forestry production are major potential sources for growth; the scope for expanding agricultural production of a wide range of products is significant given the favorable landlpopulation ratio, below-potential yields and underexploited natural resources. The mineral resource base is also diversified with reserves of oil, bauxite, iron ore and natural gas. The exploitation of hydroelectric and mineral resources, the processing of agricultural, forestry, and mineral products for export, plus selected forms of manufacturing for the regional common market, the Union Douanibre des Etats de l'Afrique Centrale (UDEAC), and other countries could significantly contribute to the economy's growth. 4. Economic growth was high (about 8 percent per annum in real terms) throughout the 1970's and until 1985. In the period after Independence, Cameroon relied heavily on agriculture, which still remains the key economic sector, employing about two-thirds of the population and generating 40 percent of export receipts. However, oil became a major source of growth after 1978 when production commenced in Cameroon. By 1984185 oil production accounted for more than 15 percent of GDP, 45 percent of government revenues and almost two-thirds of total merchandise exports. Oil production reached a peak of 8.9 million metric tonnes in 1985/86. During this period the share of agricultural production in total GDP fell from above 30 percent in the 1970's to 21 percent in 1984185. 5. Oil revenues boosted public and private spending, enabilug gross fixed inve3tment to grow at an average real rate of 7 percent during the first half of the 19809 and to maintain a high level of 20 percent of GDP. Governmwnt direct inveitment increased much faster than private sector investment and its share (excluding investment of the public enterprises) in total investment rose from one-fifth in 1979180 to one-third by 1984185. In addition, there was considerable expansion in the public enterprise sectors during 1982-1985 the sector accounted for 12.5 percent of gross fixed capital formation (but contributed only 7 percent of GDP and employed only 2 percent of the economically active population). 6. Until the mid-1980s, the Government nevertheless maintained a balanced budget, despite large capital expenditures. Given the Government's policy of using its own resources, foreign financing contributed little to the State's total financing requirements. It amounted to less than CFAP 40 billion a year. or around 6 percent of total expenditures until 1984/85. In addition until 1985/86, the Government accumulated large deposits in the domestic banking system, depositing on average CPAF 35 billion per annum of savings. Furthermore, a significant proportion of Government's receipts from the oil sector was accumulated in external reserves and the balance of payments remained consistently in eurplus. Cameroon is a member of the French Monetary Cooperation Zone, and its currency, the CFA Franc (CFAF), is freely convertible into French Francs. 7. Since Independence, the Government has sought to provide universal education at the primary level and to increase access to other levels of education for large segments of the population. The primary enrollment ratio is 107, one of the highest in West Africa. In secondary and higher education the gross enrollment ratios are 27 percent and 1.6 percent respectively. Other social indicators are shown in Annex II. 8. The population growth rate was most recently estimated at 2.9 percent based on a 1987 census. During the past decade, the urban population increased at an annual growth rate of 7 percent from 2.2 to 3.9 million. Nearly 40 percent of the population now live in towns. S. The Current Cri3is 9. Since 1985, the fall in the US$-denominated prices of Cameroon's major export commodities (oil, coffee and cocoa) and the depreciation of the US$ have exposed major structural weaknesses in the economy and have plunged it into a deep recession. Between 1985 and 1987, Cameroon's export price index in CFAF terms fell by 65 percent for oil, 24 percent for cocoa, 11 percent for coffee, and 20 percent for rubber, causing a 47 percent deterioration in the terms of trade. The balance of payments registered a current account deficit of 8.8 percent of GDP in 1986/87 compared to a surplus of 3.9 percent in 1984/85. These exogenous factors undermined Cameroon"s economic and financial viability and brought a halt to economic - 3 - growth. The economy stalled in 1986187, with GDP falling by 3 percent. It is estimated that GDP fell by 9 percent last year (1987/88) and will fall by a further 6-7 percent this year. Investment and imports are about 50 percent and 40 percent, respectively, below their levels of three years ago. 10. The fall in export earnings, together with internationally uncompetitive domestic interest rates which encouraged capital flight, resulted in a dramatic decline in Cameroon's net foreign assets from CFAF +128 billion in June 1986 to CFAF -147 billion in June 1988. This has led to a sharp contraction in the liquidity of the domestic banking system, which is, in turn, further constraining economic activity. 11. In 1986/87, Government revenues fell by CFAP 146 billion and, for the first time in Cameroon"s history, government operations recorded a large deficit (ClAF 508 billion, equivalent to 12 percent of GDP). This deficit resulted from a 28 percent fall in oil revenues between 1984/85 and 1986187, plus a continued increase in recurrent expenditurei, mainly on personnel, and the failure to scale back public investments fast enough. It was financed by (i) a build-up of domestic arrears amounting to CFAP 240 billion (mostly to domestic contractors working on investment projects), (i3) a drawdown of deposits held both externally and with the domestic banking system (exacerbating the latter's liquidity constraint). and (iii) an increase in foreign financing - public and publicly-guaranteed external debt at end 1987188 is estimated at US$ 2500 million, equivalent to 19 percent of GDP. The creation of domestic arrears has acted as an unanticipated tax on the private sector and has contributed to the slowdown in economic activity and the illiquidity of the banking system. The resolution of this proble- is an essential first step for getting the economy back on track. C. The Stabilizat-in Plan for Public Finances 12. To deal with its deteriorating finances, the Government first launched an austerity program in 1987188 to restore budgetary balance. This progrr.a succeeded in cutting the Government's deficit to 6 percent of GDP last year. Expenditures were reduced by 34 percent or ClAF 415 billion over the previous year; on the other hand, revenue also fell by CFAF 120 billion to about 80 percent of the 1986/87 level. The largest expenditure cut was the elimination of extrabudgetary spending (ClAF 250 billion) which covered a variety of recurrent and capital expenditures. In addition, capital expenditures were reduced by CFAF 212 billion (48 percent) and recurrent expenditures (excluding debt service) by CFAF 88 billion (18 percent); the latter included a freeze on wages, a 27 percent reduction in transfers and subsidies, and a 38 percent cut in goods and services. Interest payments were the nly item to increase. 13. The second year of the Government's stabilization program is supported by an 18 month Stand-by arrangement approved by the IMF in September 1988. The 1988/89 budget aims to reduce the overall deficit further to 2 percent of GDP. This is being accomplished through a further reduction of capital expenditures, which are programmed at one-third of their average 1984/85 - 1986/87 level. In addition, efforts are underway to reduce personnel expenditures by reviewing the payroll for *ghosto - .4 - woreiers and to increase nonoil tax revenues mainly through excise taxes on alcohol and petroleum products and improved tax administration. As of December 1988, the Government's budget was on track with the exception of a slight revenue shortfall, attributable to the decline in economic activity, and the accumulation of a moderate amount of external debt arrears. The Government has requested a rescheduling of these arrears, as well as a portion of current maturities, through the Paris Club. In addition a rescheduling plan for domestic arrears has been negotiated with most large domestic creditors. The Government intends to pay 15 percent in cash with the balance in negotiable, seven-year Treasury bills at the Central Bank rediscount rate, currently 9.5 percent. The cash payment may be insufficient, however, to restore liquidity in the banking system, especially since a portion of these payments will be repatriated to foreign firms that had been working through domestic contractors. Taking into account the above measures, the IMF has concluded that Cameroon remains in compliance with the September 1988 Stand-by arrangement. 14. The severe cutback in overall government expenditure during the past two years, to 60 percent of the average 1984185 - 1986/87 level, is a major cause of the slowdown in economic activity. Due to the across-the- board nature of the cuts, it has also resulted in severe underfunding of essential economic and social services and has left numerous investment projects uncompleted. The Government has recently completed reprogramming its capital expenditures based on criteria, agreed with the Bank, that aim to concentrate resources on those projects nearest completion and to emphasize the maintenance of existing assets. Nevertheless, the overall constraints on the budget will result in slower than desirable implementation of most development projects. 15. The financial crisis has also prompted the Government to take a closer look at its public and parapublic enterprises that absorbed large amounts o.; Dublic resources in recent years and drained liquidity from the banking sy.tem through a combination of non-performing loans, unpaid crop credit and a build-up of arrears to domestic suppliers. A Public Enterprise Rehabilitation Commission was set up in July 1986 to recommend measures to reduce the heavy burden of this sector on public finances, improve companies' performance, and rationalize state participation. Since August 1987, the Commission has shown considerable energy and determination in pursuing its mandate and has carried out audits on companies which have led to recommendations concerning their restructuring, privatization or liquidation. It has also evaluated their cross-claims and debts. A review of the institutional, regulatory, and macroeconomic environment has been carried out concurrentlt with these audits to assess and rationalize the environment for the companies that are to be retained in the Government's portfolio. The policies examined relate to pricing, trade, credit, employment, wages, investment, and privileges that these companies currently enjoy. D. Structural Issues Public Finance Management ;.. With the drop in oil revenues, the need for a tight budgetary policy has become an urgent task for the Government. The challenge is to control expenditures without excessive costs in terms of growth foregone. Restoration of equilibrium vill require that the Government erhances its domestic revenue effort and adjusts spending to a level consistent with available resources. Non-oil tax revenues have been eroded in the 1980's and need to be increased from their current level of 10 percent of non-oil GDP to thei: historic level of 14-15 percent, in order to attain budgetary equilibrium in the medium-term. This will require a medium term restructuring of the tax system which should be accomplished primarily by broadening the tax base and improving tax administration and compliance, rather than by increases in tax rates. For the next few years, until this restructuring can be accomplished, the Government will have to rely heavily on foreign borrowing to maintain a minimum level of capital investment consistent with reviving the economy and sustaining growth in the medium term. 17. On the recurrent expenditure side, the main effort needs to be on containing personnel expenditures. Civil service salaries are relatively high reflecting the period of high oil revenues. The existing freeze on the wage bill needs to be continued; new hiring, including graduates trained in public administration institutions, should be further reduced; and the costly system of benefits and allowances requires rationalization. The Government also needs to improve the quality of its recurrent expenditures by adopting operating standards that ministries should strive to achieve and that could be used for allocating resources based on performance. Budgetary allocations will need to be better designed than during the past two years when non-wage recurrent costs were sharply reduced with no prior planning. The sharp reductions in non-wage recurrent expenses have reduced vital maintenance of capital infrastructure and provision of services in health, education, transport, agriculture, and urban services, and could lead to dramatic repercussions on the country's future growth. 18. In general, considerable improvements are required in the mAnegement of government resources. Budget planning does not yet take place within a medium-term framework incorporating revenue and expenditure projections based on the forecast behavior of key macroeconomic variables; sectoral allocations are often made on a rather arbitrary basis especially when expenditure cuts are required due to lack of coherent sector strategies; public finance data are not presented in a consolidated form which seriously hinders effective management of scarce public resources; project appraisal, monitoring and evaluation are frequently neglected or poorly executed; and procurement procedures are often unclear and implementation slow. Bankiab Sector and Financial Policies 19. Cameroos's banking system comprises ten commercial banks with varying degre_s of state, parapublic and foreign shareholding, and three state-owned banks, of which one is a commercial bank and the other two are development banks specializing respectively in agriculture and industry. Over the past two years, the banking system has become heavily illiquid, and many individual bankR, particularly the three state-owned banks but also some large jointly-owned commercial banks, have become technically insolvent, largely on account of the accumulation of high portfolio arrears. The aggregate deficit of the banking system is estimated to range from ClAP 300 - 375 billion or almost one-third of their outstanding portfolio and approximately 102 of the country's GDP. The sinancial difficulties of the banks have led to a de facto rationing of deposit withdrawals and have severely limited their capacity to finance productive activities. The mounting disarray of the formal banking system is believed to hbve been paralleled by an expansion of the informal financial market, consisting of utontinesa and other mutual savings mechanisms, which has always been active in Cameroon and is now estimated to hold about CFAP 200- 300 billion of deposits or almost one-third of total deposits of the flnancial system. 20. This situation of banking distress has resulted from a combination of factors. The sharp decline in real GDP over 1986187-1987/88 was bound to spill over into the financial sector. The Government's budgetary difficulties since 1986 led to a reduction of public sector deposits that directly affected banking liquidity, as well as the accumulation of government arrears vis-s-vis private sector contractors, which impaired the latter's capacity to service their banking debts. Another factor was the involvement of the banking system in the provision of seasonal agricultural credit (mostly for cocoa, coffee and cotton) including for domestic marketing costs and taxes, without taking into account declining export prices, resulting in an overhang of unpaid crop credit exceeding ClAP 100 billion. Credit to public enterprises, many of which are poor performers, is estimated at some CFAP 150 billion and constitutes another source of banking arrears. Furthermore, banking management was weak, particularly in state-owned banks and those in which the state was predominant. Finally, banking control exercised by the national authorities and by BEAC (the Central Bank common to Cameroon and the other fire countries of the region) was ineffective until a start was made in 1987 to strengthen it. 21. Apart from these factors which have precipitated the current banking crisis, there are other inadequacies in the policy, regulatory and institutional framework that have impeded the efficient functioning of the financial sector and banking system. Banking profitability has been undermined by restrictive margins set on credit, by an over-extended branch network partly due to government pressure, and by excess staffing. A myriad of administratively-mandated interest rates, on both loans and deposits, has stiflFI banking competition and discouraged the introduction of new, more diversified financial instruments. Banking competition was further curtailed by the setting of quantitative Central Bank rediscount ceilings both on individual banks and individual borrowers. The relatively low Central Bank rediscount rates, of 6.5 percent and 9.5 percent respectively for preferential and normal credits, compared with the money market rates in Paris, may also have encouraged capital outflows, in light of the freedom of financial transfers within the Franc Zone. They have not been conducive to domestic savings mobilization. The lower rediscount rate of 6.5 percent for priority activities such as agriculture and SMEs may have resulted in some diversion of credits from their intended purposes, while the low banking margin '4 3 percentage points for the same activities may effectively have discouraged the banks from lending for them. Finally, although BEAC has at its disposal a vast array of control instruments and regulations including prudential banking ratios (e.g., capital adequacy and -7- liquidity ratios), these are overly complex and not systematically monitored and enforced in practice. ARriculture 22. After a period of moderate growth in the 1970's, the agriculture sector has stagnated since 1982. The unfavorable climate of 1982-84 partly accounted for this poor performance, but the stagnation can largely be explained by a longer-term decline in cash crop production. This is a cause for concern as Cameroon will have to rely on agriculture for export revenues in the face of depleted oil reserves. The Government's objectives for the sector emphasize food security, the promotion of exports and expansion of crops used by local industry, and in general an increase zn rural incomes which are about one-half the national average. However, the Government's agricultural policy has been restrictive. particularly in the pricing and marketing of export crops. 23. Pricing and Trade Policies. Weak commodity prices, the depreciation of the US dollar vis-a-vis the CFAP, dumping and subsidy of food exports from surplus countries, plus high domestic labor and intermediate costs have eroded Cameroon's competitive position for most of its tradeable crops. At current world price levels, marketing losses amount to CFAF 100 to 200 per kg of cocoa, coffee and cotton exported, vhich is estimated to represent a net drain of CFAF 50 billion per annum on public sector resources. The losses of recent years have been financed by a combination of drawdowns of previously accumulated stabilization reserves on deposit in the banking system and by unpaid crop credit. Producer prices for major export crops are set by the Government independently from world market trends. In the past, when world prices were considerably higher, relatively iow fixed producer prices for export crops resulted in heavy taxation of producers. Today, however, Cameroon's official producer prices are among the highest in francophone Africa, as a result of steady increases in the official price during recent years. But with today's depressed world prices and the tight monetary situation, the Government is facing difficulty in supporting the present producer price level. Present producer prices are projected to result in substantial and unsustainable deficits well beyond 1990. A recent diagnostic study of the National Products Marketing Board (ONCPB) indicates that the expected deficit from exporting cocoa, coffee and cotton this year will exhaust all remaining liquid reserves that ONCPB holds in the banking system and on account with the Treasury. Future financing of this deficit would require direct budgetary subsidies andlor a further deterioration in the banking system. 24. Marketing of coffee and cocoa is subject to Government regulation and control. The Government establishes an annual price schedule (barame) to regulate all costs and marketing margins, and assigns the quota and zone of marketing to specific traders and cooperatives. This system is inefficient as the lack of competition creates opportunities for traders to collect rents and it discourages cooperatives from minimizing costs. Internal marketing costs are also high compared with neighboring countries. 25. Institutional Constraints. Excessive Government interference in the administration of cooperatives and its poor management of the - 8 - delivery of farm inputs and extension services has proved very inefficient and costly; agencies have proliferated often duplicating each other's functions and their scope of activities has been defined too widely to include services which could be more efficiently provided by the private sector. 26. Food Security. In spite of its overall favorable position as regards food self-sufficiency, the country faces three food security problems. First, continuing chronic malnutrition affects about one-quarter of the rural population under five years of age spread over all provinces. Second, transitory food insecurity exists in the northern provinces due to unfavorable climatic conditions, low productivity of agriculture, and little crop diversification. Third, the food distribution system is inadequate due to the inaccessibility of some areas, poor storage and lack of processing facilities. In addition, price controls and quantitative restrictions on food imports are major policy constraints. 27. Forestry and Environment. Cameroon's forestry subsector has considerable potential for increased sustainable production, as well as for increasing government revenues. Only about 40 percent of the country's forest resources are being exploited and many lesser-known species with economic potential are being neglected. Forest exploitation is not efficiently controlled due to the lack of a land-use plan, inadequate policy in granting concessions and lice3ses for exploitation and exports, and poorly-trained staff running the Directorate of Forestry which is responsible for planning and protection in forest areas. In addition, government regulations require 60 percent of wood exploitation to be transformed into semi-finished products. Because of low conversion ratios in the wood processing industry, this has encouraged wasteful exploitation of forest resources and lower export revenues for the sector. Trade and Industrial Incentives 28. Depressed domestic demand during the past three years has put a halt to the steady growth of the manufacturing sector, which grew by about 10 percent per annum since independence. It has revealed the sector's lack of competitiveness and high costs which are the result of the long-standing protectionist policies and regulations. For more than twenty years, high trade barriers and the nature of the Investment Code increased the relative profitability of import-substitutes, leading to the establishment of highly capital-intensive activities and low value-added assembly/packaging of consumer goods. Restrictive labor legislation and price controls increased inefficiency and distorted market mechanisms. Incentives to base production on donestic resources and to produce for export markets were limited. Manufacturing relied on an escalation of protection, thereby imposing considerable costs on the rest of the economy. The resulting highly dispersed levels of effective protection distorted resource allocation among sub-sectors of industry. 29. Trade Policy. Both domestic and foreign trade are heavily regulated in Cameroon. Imports are subject to import licensing and the vast majority of locally produced goods are protected by quantitative restrictions (QRs). The tariff system is complex and results in highly dispersed tariff rates, ranging from zero to 180 percent with an average of - 9 - 45 percent. Tariff instruments include the 'entry duty' and the *customs duty' which are fixed for all UDEAC members and the "complementary import duty tax' (0-50 percent) which is fixed by each member country. Protection is aggravated by widespread exemptions from import duties through the Investment Code and other similar fiscal regimes. Exports outside the UDEAC zone are taxed at 2 percent, with the exception of coffee, cocoa and wood which are taxed at higher, specific rates. Industrial exports within UDEAC are taxed under the single tax regime for eligible firms. 30. Price Control. Domestic prices are either fixed or officially approved on a cost-plus basis. Maximum wholesale and retail margins are fixed for all goods and services with specific rates for production and distribution of domestic goods, goods under QRs and some key consumer imports. A minimum margin is guaranteed for retailing. As a result, the system is inflationary; its administration rigid and prone to abuse. The price control system is reinforced by rehulations governing entry into wholesale and retail trade (Law 80/25). 31. Investment and Fiscal Incentives. Because of its content and discretionary administration, the Investment Code is the main source of market distortions, and restrictions on competition. Investment incentives are provided through the different regimes of the 1984 Investment Code derived from the UDEAC general guidelines and the regional single tax ('taxe unique') regime. Benefits are granted for 10 to 25 years and increase with the size of the investment. Larger investments benefit from 'special conventions' with the State which freeze company-specific fiscal advantages for up to 25 yLars. Most enterprises in UDEAC, and therefore Cameroon, benefit from the Code, which grants import duty exemptions on inputs and a maximum of 5 percent import duty on capital goods. The single tax replaces all indirect taxes and is levied on the firms' operations for goods sold within UJDEAC. However, its rate varies between firms, products and UDEAC countries. It is collected from the final user. The internal turnover tax ("taxe int6rieure a la production") regime grants similar advantages to companies selling on their domestic market but is collected by the Customs Department. These incentives encourage over-investment in fixed capital, discourage the use of labor and regional integration, and cause a considerable loss of fiscal revenue. 32. Regulatory and Institutional Environment. The business regulatory environment is often inadequate, obsolete or incomplete. Private sector wages are, for instance, regulated in accordance with extremely detailed public sector wage categories. Entry is restricted in certain sectors, and monopoly privileges are granted to certain Investment Code beneficiaries. The legislation governing contracts, incorporation, partnerships and exit from production needs to be clarified, and protection against unfzir business practices should be strengthened. Institutions supporting the private sector, and in particular small and medium scale enterprises and export activities need to be profoundly restructured. - 10 - Oil Production 33. Cameroon's oil production will decline and reserves will be depleted by the end of the century unless new discoveries are made. Although the likelihood of untapped petroleum resources is coAsidered high, new discoveries are unlikely without better incentives for oil exploration. Compared to neighboring oil-producing countries, Cameroon's legislation and taxation policy does not encourage oil companies to undertake further exploration activities and none are currently taking place. Companies are expected to bear the entire cost of exploration drilling, with the 'Soci6t6 Nationale des lydrocarburesl (SNH) reimbuzsing 60 percent of the cost only if oil is found and as and when revenues allow. In addition, exploration contracts stipulate minimum work programs which are often excessive. Moreover, the fiscal regime applied to production is not appropriate to a period of low oil prices and declining reserves, since it taxes the net cash flow of the oil industry at 87 percent. This level of taxation is a serious disincentive to further exploration and development. Human Resources 34. The constraints on budgetary resources, together vith the existing deficiencies in education and health services, pose a serious threA* to the well-being of society and the future development of the country. Without corrective action in the near future, Cameroon risks a depletion in human capital, increased health risks and increased inequity In the provision of basic socio-economic services. The Government is anxious to incorporate a social dimension in its adjustment program, but has yet to link fully the objective of poverty alleviation with the central priorities in the education and health sectors, and to formulate a coherent and financially sustainable strategy for each sector, including the protection of a minimum level of funding for basic services. At present the Government allocates the considerable funds it spends in the education and health sectors mostly on secondary and tertiary services. The rigidities in reallocating expenditures include large wage bills, an entrenched pattern of allowances for universiiy students, a penchant for modern and expensive schools and hospitals, and a lack of cost recovery policies. 35. Education. Education development in %ameroon has focussed on expansion of the formal system but very little on quality. Even so, expansion of the system has not kept pace with school-age population growth, leading to overcrowding and inadequate provision of trained teachers and vital educational inputs. Low attainment in relation to years of education and often inappropriate qualifications characterize the educated manpower in the labor market. Persistent shortages of experienced managerial, technical, and skilled manpower seriously impede economic development. On the other hand, the informal sector plays a valuable role through its extensive apprenticeship system. There is a need to improve siubstantially the standards of primary and technical education, as well as the effectiveness of vocational education, and adjust the curricula and training approaches to respond to the needs of the economy. 36. Health. Poor management of the health care system coupled with inadequate and poorly allocated expenditures threaten to compromise the - 11 - gains of the past decade in reducing mortality and morbidity. An Important part of past and future expenditures has been allocated to sophisticated hospitnls, while insufficient resources are available to operate and maintain the existing hospitals, much less new facilities. A strategy needs to be devised to reallocate expenditure patterns towards broad-based primary health care, including maternal and child health programs, and introduce cost-recovery methods throughout the spectrum of health services. The Government's population policy is cast in terms of "responsible parenthoodu, but active pursuit of this policy is limited by the same inadequate attention and financing that affects primary health care. Part II - The Structural Adjustment Program A. Objectives and Approach 37. The Government started preparing its medium-term adjustment program in early 1988. At that time it established a working level cuamittee comprised of directors and senior technicians from all major operational ministries. This committee was divided into subcommittees along functional lines and was charged with drawing up the Government's Statement of Development Strategy. The establishment of this working committee created for the first time in Cameroon an opportunity for the technical level of Government to put forward its own agenda for reform on a comprehensive economy-wide basis. The President added increased importance to this exercise in December 1988 by establishing an Interministerial Committee responsible for steering the preparation of the structural adjustment program and for monitoring its implementation. This Committee is assisted by two technical secretaridts, one dealing with the IM stabilization program and the other with the adjustment program developed in collaboration with the World Bank and the African Developmert Bank. 38. While the resulting Declaration of Development Strategy (Annex V) was developed and discussed with three joint World BanklAfDB missions over the past nine months, the Declaration is very much regarded as the Government's own program and benefits from the wide range of technicians throughout Government who have participated in its preparation and are committed to its implementation. The Government intends to publish this Declaration to inform the Cameroonian public of the specific contents of the adjustment program, as well as to mobilize the external resources from the donor community needed to finance the program. 39. The broad objectives of the Government's adjustment program can be summarized as follows: a) to reestablish a positive rate of per capita income growth; b) to reduce progressively the constraints which hinder a general opening of economic opportunities, through fostering increased competition and reducing the inefficiency of domestic markets; c) to reorient the role of the State from one of direct intervention in the production and distribution of goods - 12 - and services to one of facilitating the operation of-the private sector; d) to reoriett public services towards programs which Improve the well-being and productivity of all Cameroonians, taking into account the social dimension of adjustment. 40. The Government aims to attain these objectives through a series of measures that will: - stabilize and restructure public f:.ances over the medium- term, through improved programming and budgeting of government resources, better control over government salaries, improvements in the productivity and management of the civil service, and an increase in non-oil tax revenues; - restructure and rehabilitate the public enterprise sector; - restructure the banking sector, including improved monetary and credit policies; - stabilize the finances of the agricultural marketing structures for the principal export crops (coffee, cocoa and cotton), liberalize progressively trade in these crops, and create programs to increase food security and promote non-traditional agricultural exports; - deregulate internal commerce with a view towards lowering the domestic cost structure, and rationalize external trade regulation and effective rates of protection; - improve incentives for petroleum exploration and production; - reorient policies in the health and education sectors, especially toward the primary level, to improve human resources development; - establish specific action programs to reduce the social cost of adjustment. B. The First Phase of the Adjustment PrRram 41. Many of the above objectives are likely to require three to five years for implementation to be completed. This is particularly the case for public enterprise reform, the banking sector and administrative reform of the civil service. Also, a sustained effort will be required over the medium-term to increase non-oil tax revenues in order to stabilize public finances and cover Cameroon's increased debt burden. The Government therefore considers its Declaration of Development Strategy as a medium- term framework within which the specific actions described below and set - 13 - out in the Matrix of Policy Actions (Annex VI) represent the first 18-24 mouth phase of the adjustment program. Public Sector Resource Management 42. Under the structural adjustment program, the Government will take a series of interconnected actions to improve the mobilization and management of public sector resources. These messures aim to present a clearer and more comprehensive picture of Government finances, reestablish an equilibrium between expenditures on personnel versus goods and services, improve the management and efficiency of the civil service, and improve revenue collections while taking initial steps towards a more comprehensive rationalization of the tax system. 43. Until now annual budgets have been prepared in the absence of a clear link with the macro-economic circumstances of the country. In addition, the budget submitted to the National Assembly has not taken account of expenditures financed by sources other than tax revenues, namely, externally financed projects, and, until recently, the considerable expenditures financed by the Government's outside accounts ('comptes hors budget*). In order to present a clear'r and more comprehensive account of Government resources and expenditures, &":, Government will prepare each year a set of medium-ter.. macro-economic projections that will provide the broad parameters for the following year's budget. Within this context, the Government will draw up a rolling four-year public investment program that will include all sources of financing. This program will be based on a soon-to-be installed system designed to monitor the physical and financial execution of projects currently under implementation. This system will, in addition, produce quarterly monitoring reports that can be used by ministries to measure progress on all projects in a given sector, or, for example, all projects financed by a given external donor. In the first instance, this system will cover all projects in the Government's budget, but will eventually be extended to monitor the investment programs of the public enterprises, in particular, the portion financed by government guaranteed debt. Starting with the 1989190 budget, the first year of the investment program will appear as an annex in the annual public finance law ('Loi de Finances") which will set limits on the disbursement of externally financed projects, in order to ensure execution of the budget in line with the multi-year investment program. 44. The Government has also decided to revise its procurement procedures with the aim of reducing the administrative delays that have led to considerable cost overruns. For this purpose, it has created a separate unit as part of the Presidency, the Direction Generale des Grands Travaux du Cameroun (DGTC), that will supervise the physical execution of all major capital expenditures by the Government. The first practical steps to be taken towards improving the procurement process will include standardization of bidding documents and a program to train personnel responsible for the tendering process. In addition, procurement procedures will be reviewed and revised with a view to reducing delays and assigning specific responsibility and deadlines for the various steps to the agencies involved in the procurement process. These measures will be in place by mid 1990. - 14 - 45. As mentioned earlier, the Government has taken major efforts to stabilize public finances and reduce the budget deficit. A different kind of adjustment is now required to reestablish a balance among categories of expenditures. In this regard, the adjustment program ervisages two major efforts: establishment of minimum levels of expenditure on key development services and better control on personnel expenditure. Regarding the former, the Government intends to increase the non-wage recurrent allocations for education, health, agricultural research and extension, and road maintenance by 53 percent, or FCFA 7.6 billion in the 1989190 budget. This increase will nearly restore the level of expenditure of these key sectors to that of two years ago. In the medium-term, expenditure on these services will be adjusted to correspond with the results of operational audits for the respective ministries that will be carried out in connection with the Government's program of administrative reform (see below). 46. The Government has already achieved a 12 percent reduction in the wage bill during the past two years through a series of measures that have frozen nominal salaries, reduced the number of new recruits, purged non existent employees from the wage bill, enforced the age limit for retirement from the civil service, and reduced benefits and allowances for certain categories of personnel. The Government intends to consolidate this effort and carry it further by adopting a program of administrative reform aimed to reduce further the cost of the civil service while at the same time improving its efficiency. In the short term, these measures include improved management of the payroll system and the establishment of a scheme for voluntary departure from the civil service. In addition, the Government intends to review and revise the system of allowances for family allocations, housing and transportation while on leave, as well as the legislation governing retirement. Finally, the Government will begin a series of operational audits in 1989 that will review the mission of each ministry, in order to determine the appropriate structure and staffing level as well as the appropriate recurrent budget needed to accomplish the ministry's objectives. Management audits of four central ministries (Finance, Plan, Civil Service and Commerce and Industry) will be carried out by March 1990 and the process will be extended to key sectoral ministries later that year. These audits will be supported by the proposed economic management project that is being processed in parallel with the SAL. Civil servants identified by these audits as superfluous to the ministries' staffing requirements will be provided incentives to leave the civil service, including facilities to retrain for private sector activity. 47. The second major objective of the Government's program of administrative reform is to improve the efficiency of the civil service by introducing new policies for the evaluation of individual performance and the management of personnel files. This is a medium term program that will require approximately two years to complete. As a first step, the Government will review the laws and regulations concerning the civil service and will harmonize the statutes applying to different categories of employees, i.e. permanent civil servants, part-time and non-civil service employees. The compensation system will also be revised, in order to better balance salary and benefits. A new system of performance evaluation will be introduced based on individual performance plans, and promotion and remuneration will be based on the results of this system. In order to Improve the long term quality of the civil service, a system of career - 15 - planning and professional training will be established. Finally, overall management of the civil service will be improved by strengthening the computerization of personnel files, including all important data concerning salaries, length of service, promotion and career development and the production of coherent statistics. 48. As discussed in Part I. due to the expected secular decline of petroleum revenues during the next decade, a sustained effort to increase domestic resource mobilization will be required over a number of years, in order to restore the contribution of non-oil tax revenue to its former level of around 14-15 percent of non-oil GDP. As a start, the Government introduced a land tax in 1988/89, and cadastral surveys will soon be undertaken to extend the land tax throughout major areas of Douala and Yaound6. Also a number of measures have already been initiated to improve tax collection and reduce fiscal fraud. Among these is the requirement that all imports of a value higher than the equivalent of USS 3,300 obtain a certificate of inspection by specialized agencies in the country of export; this should improve the proper declaration of content and value for the purpose of collecting customs duty. The Government will soon begin a program of negotiating duty free import quotas for all diplomatic missions, and will strictly enforce the practice of collecting import duties on all Imports by Government ministries and agencies, including imports financed by external sources. The Government's intention is to reduce import duty exonerations as much as possible, which currently permit as much as 60 percent of imports to enter Cameroon duty free. This will require revision of the Investment Code and renegotiation of existing exonerations with current beneficiaries which will take a number of years and is not expected to yield significant increases in revenue in the short term. 49. Over the medium term, the Governmentgs adjustment program envisages a restructuring of the fiscal system. First, the individual income tax system would be rationalized to reduce its complexity, broaden the tax base and perhaps lower individual rates. To this end, a study will be completed by (December 1989). A system of unique taxpayer identification numbers will be introduced for all individual and corporate tax payers. Second, the Government intends to introduce a value added tax (VAT) in 1991192, to replace the extremely complicated current system of indirect taxes including the domestic turnover tax ("impOt sur le chiffre d'affaires interieur*), the single tax ('taxe unique") and the tax on domestic production ('taxe interieure a la production"). Since these last two taxes are comon to the UDEAC zone, introduction of the TVA will have to be coordinated at the UDEAC level. As a first step, the Government will complete a study on introduction of the VAT by December 1989. Public Enterprise Reform 50. The Government is well underway in addressing the severe financial problems of the public enterprise sector. For the past year, the Interministerial Commission for Public Enterprise Reform has been conducting diagnostic studies of the 75 public enterprises that represent the heaviest financial burden on public resources, including all commercial and state owned banks. Decisions have been taken to liquidate and/or privatize 22 of these enterprises. Liquidators have been appointed for four public enterprises and the Commission completed a privatization - 16 - strategy paper in mid-April. A proposed legal text governing the procedures by which public enterprises are to be privatized will be completed by August 1989. 51. Decisions have also been taken to rehabilitate 38 strategic enterprises which will remain in the Government's portfolio.lt These include the major utilities, transport parastatals, research institutes and agricultural marketing organizations. Action plans have been prepared for these enterprises which identify the resources required for the financial restructuring of each enterprise's balance sheet (working capital and settlement of arrears) and establish plans for the technical rehabilitation of the enterprise, reduction in work force, and an appropriate medium-term investment program. A performance contract will be signed between the Government and the management of each enterprise. These contracts will set out performance objectives and timetables, establish areas of management autonomy and, within the context of minimizing financial transfers from the Government, identify specific obligations of the Government towards the enterprise in the case where the enterprise is required to carry out non- profitable activities. Performance contracts for 7 major enterprises will be signed by September 1989 and for another 9 major enterprises by April 1990. Diagnostic studies for a second group of 45 enterprises will be completed by December 1989, and decisions on the status of all remaining public enterprises will be taken by March 1990. 52. The estimated cost for rehabilitating the first group of enterprises (excluding banks) is estimated at CFAP 377 billion over five years. This includes approximately CFAP 25 billion for redundancy payments for approximately 14,000 employees that are estimated to become redundant in the first group. Before any employees are dismissed, however, a set of measures will be pnt in place to provide compensation for their loss of employment and to assist those who wish to enter the private sector find jobs or establish their own business. To this end facilities for retraining, and/or establishing a new business will be made available to all interested employees. 53. The Government is in the process of reviewing the results of the restructuring plans with a view to reducing the total estimated cost to a level consistent with available resources. To date, external financing has been lined up to cover about CFAF 60 billion of the total cost, and government resources could cover an additional CFAF 50 billion per annum. Additional assistance from multilateral and bilateral donors will thus be required to meet the cost of the program, and close coordination among donors and the Government is a prerequisite for its success. 54. As part of its decision making process, the Interministerial Commission also took a number of decisions concerning the institutional and macroeconomic environment in which public enterprises function. Concerning the former, the commission decided that public enterprises should function with the maximum amount of autonomy possible and that the management must 1/ Of the 75 enterprises studied, 14 are banks and financial institutions and one is the agricultural marketing board (ONCPB), which are dealt with in the following sections. - 17 - be responsible for the performance of each enterprise. The board of directors for each enterprise will ba open to members of the private sector, and members of the Government vill no longer be appointed as chairman of the board. The role of the supervising ministry will thus be significantly reduced in terms of day-to-day management of the enterprise. Nevertheless, decisions concerning the investment program, hiring and firing of staff, capital structure and borrowing will still require the prior approval of the supervising ministry. Legislation concerning these points, as well as redefining the general statutes governing the organization and operation of public enterprises will be enacted by December 1989. Public enterprises are to be classified as (a) administrative entities (*Etablissement & Caractere Administratif'), (b) state-owned enterprises ("SociOth d'Etat'), or (c) joint-ventures ('Socidtds d'Economie Mixte'). Those in the first category - research institutes and other entities with a social purpose - will continue to receive government subsidies but will have programs designed to improve their efficiency and effectiveneso. Those in the second and third categories will operate on commercial principles and will be veaned from Government subsidies. Concerning the macroeconomic environment, the Interministerial Commission adopted a series of decisions that will lead to a progressive liberalization of the commercial and trade regime. These are discussed below under the section on Industrial and Trade Reform. 55. Implementation of this extensive reform program will be monitored by the Commission, whose mandate has been extended for this purpose. The Commission is assisted by a technical Committee that has supervised the diagnostic studies and is responsible for monitoring the implementation of the action programs and maintaining a central file on performance of the public enterprise sector. A supervision committee ('Comitd de Suivia) will be established for each enterprise to negotiate and monitor the performance contract and will include representatives from the concerned ministries, the Director General of the enterprise concerned and a representative of the technical committee. Financial and Banking Sector 56. The present distress of the banking system represents a major obstacle to the resumption of normal economic activity, and its resolution is a prequisite for the success of the structural adjustment program. In collaboration with the Bank and IMF, the Government has taken initial steps to address the situation. Diagnostic studies and financial audits have been carried out or are in process for each individual bank. A comprehensive program for reforming the financial and banking sector has been formulated, which includes the following main elements: Mi) an action plan for the restructurlng of distressed banks including: (a) liquidation of Cameroon Bank, a state-owned commercial bank, and of the state-owned specialized banks BCD and FONADER; (b) restructuring of the state holding company, SNI; (c) consultations with the foreign partners in jointly-owned commercial banks (including SCB, BIAOC, SGBC and BICIC) toward the formulation of specific rehabilitation proposals for these banks, comprising financial restructuring as well as organizational reforms such as branch office closings and personnel reduction (by March 1990); (d) joint preparation with the foreign - 18 - partners of a plan for either restructuring on liquidating the BPPBCt (e) progressive divestiture of a significant portion of state shareholding in existing banks (upon completion of their rehabilitation) in favor of private Cameroonian or foreign investors. with as a corollary the withdrawal of Government from the management of these banks; and (f) the carrying-out of feasibility studies that would determine the viability of new banks with state shareholdings prior to their establishment; (ii) a program of emergency measures to relieve the banking liquidity crisis, including: (a) the settlement of government arrears vis-a-via the private sector (to be completed by September 1989); (b) the consolidation of part of government deposits with the banks; and (c) the rescheduling of a portion of outstanding debts owed to BEAC by the banks (negotiations Government-BEAC to start by June 1989); (iii) in conjunction with BEAC, the formulation of an action plan for putting the crop credit system on a sound footing. This plan will include (a) the settlement and/or rescheduling of past unpaid crop credits refinanced by BEAC (negotiations Government-BEAC to start by June 1989); and (b) new modalities to ensure the sound provision of crop credits beginning with the 1989/90 crop season, including limiting bank financing to expected export receipts and the reinforcement of control over financed stocks: (iv) in consultation with BEAC, appropriate steps to strengthen the control of banking institutions by the authorities, through the reinforcement (started since 1987) of the Inspection unit of BEAC complemented by that of the Ministry of Finance. In addition, prudential banking ratios (e.g., capital adequacy and liquidity ratios) will be more strictly monitored and enforced, following the banking restructuring; and (v) a set of selective policy reforms, to be formulated in consultation with REAC, includings (a) the gradual increase in banking margins (to be subject to annual review starting in November 1990), as a first step toward their eventual liberalization; (b) the reduction in the excessive range of interest rates (from about 40 to 4, already in force) and a gradual increase in their level, prior to their eventual liberalization; (c) studies on the reduction or abolition of taxes applicable to financial transactions (by March 1990); and (d) the preparation of legislative, regulatory and administrative measures to improve the recovery of banking loans (by March 1990). - 19 - 57. Apart from the immediate measures outlined in the preceding paragraph, the Government's program envisages more in-depth reforms of the financial and banking sector to address the following issues at the central bank levels Mi) the progressive phasing out of interest subsidies, starting with the merger of the preferential rediscount rate with the normal rediscount rate; (ii) with the return to monetary equilibria, the gradual abolition of bank-by-bank credit ceilings (for which Government will initiate consultations with BEAC, IM4 and IBID by September 1989); (iii) adjustments in the BEAC rediscount system to encourage medium- and long-term credits in relation to short-term credits; Uiv) a study (to be initiated upon completion of banking restructuring) on the establishment of a money market, which would gradually complement BEAC's rediscount system, and whose interest rates would become reference rates for the banking system; and iv) a study on the introduction of new capital market instruments such as corporate securities, commercial paper, obligations, treasury bills, mutual funds, SICAVs, etc. 58. The financial cost of restructuring the Cameroonian banking system, that is, the amount needed to settle the losses of the banks to be liquidated as well as of those to be rehabilitated, can be determined with some degree of accuracy only upon completion and review of specific proposals for their liquidation or rehabilitation. In the meantime, on the basis of available information including the financial audits recently carried out for the major commercial banks, the overall deficit of the banking system can be roughly estimated in the range of CFAF 300-375 billion. It is impossible at this stage to estimate bow the losses of jointly-owned banks will be shared between the Government and its foreign partners, particularly the five European banks holding shares in the five major Cameroonian commercial banks ranging from 35 to 49 percent, pending the outcome of ongoing bilateral negotiations between the Government and the foreign partners, as part of the preparation of rehabilitation proposals for jointly-owned commercial banks. However, the Government will most likely have to cover the bulk of these losses, as well as the losses of the state-owned banks for which the Government bears full responsibility. Actual losses will certainly differ from current estimates, depending on the success of future efforts to recover those banking credits presently considered as non-performing. Furthermore, with the expected improvements in the banking environment, it should be possible for some presently distressed banks to continue to carry on their books a moderate amount of non-performing assets and be able to gradually amortize - 20 _ these over the next several years, thr3ugh their future earnings. The aggregate deficit of CFAF 300-375 billion could conceivably be covered by the following combination of cash and non-cash modalitiess (a) consolidation by BEAC of banking debts for up to CFAF 200 billion including arrears on crop credits estimated at some CFAF 110 billion, over at least 10 years with 3 years of grace (preferably 15 years with 5 years of grace); (b) consolidation of government deposits of up to CFAF 100 billion, or about two-fifths of the CFAF 250 billion of such deposits; (c) cash contribution of up to CFAP 75 billion by the Government and other shareholders toward the financial restructuring of banks; and (d) the issuance of Government bonds bearing medium-term maturities (7-10 years) and market-based interest rates, to cover any residual balance. 59. The implementation of the agreed reform program is expected to put the Cameroonian financial and banking sector back on a sound footing, thus providing a necessary complement to the structural adjustment program. The rehabilitation of distressed banks will restore their solvency, liquidity, profitability and operational capacity, enabling them to resume and expand financing of the productive sectors. The liquidation of some banks beyond repair will stop the drain on financial resources and remove a previous source of credit misallocation. The comprehensive set of policy, regulatory and institutional reforms (e.g., interest rates, elimination of taxation on financial transactions, agricultural crop credit, banking inspection and control) -till facilitate the emergence of a new banking system with more professional standards of operation and an enhanced capacity to mobilize and allocate resiaurces. Agriculture and Forestry 60. The Government's development objectives for agriculture emphasize food security, promotion and diversification of exports and increasing rural incomes. To attain these objectives, the Government intends to support traditional farmers and livestock owners, promote the creation of modern medium-sized farms, and increase the use and transformation of domestic agricultural products. The reform program emphasizes both price and non-price incentives. 61. Pricing and Marketing Policies. The marketing of most foodcrops is handled by the private sector in a de facto environment. Given the competitive nature of these markets, price controls are not enforced. The Government intends to reduce its involvement in the production and marketing of the few basic commodities in which public enterprises are currently involved. For example, rice marketing has recently been liberalized, and responsibility for rice production and marketing will be - 21 - transferred gradually to the private sector in the North. Sugar production and marketing will also be privatized, and the palm oil industry is being restructured for eventual privatization. Domestic production of rice, palm oil and meat products suffer from competitive imports. In response to this situation, the Government has imposed additional tariffs on import substitutes such as rice, meat products, palm oil and sugar to offset the effect of export subsidies and dumping from surplus countries. 62. For the major export crops, the Government has already taken measures to reduce intermediary costs, in order to cut down the deficit from exporting these crops in 1988189. However, these measures are not sufficient to eliminate the deficit or reduce it to an affordable level. For the 1989190 season, the Government intends to implement a pricing policy that would minimize the risk of requiring a state subsidy through further reductions of the intermediary costs of both private agents and the marketing board, suspension of export taxes, and a lowering of producer prices. The Government will institute a floor producer price for coffee, cocoa and cotton, agree on the specific amount and the content of intermediary margins, and distribute the residual excess revenue, if any, afforded by the existing world price among producers, the stabilization fund and the Government in the proportion of 40-40-20 percent, respectively. The Government will also increase the price differential between superior and inferior quality arabica coffee to increase the competitiveness of this product in the world market. The new pricing system will be in effect for the 1989/90 crop season. 63. The Government also intends to liberalize the marketing system over time. As a first step, the Government intends to introduce more competition in the Northwest region where inefficient cooperatives and the marketing board currently have a monopoly over the marketing of coffee by allowing private traders to enter the market. In the 1989190 crop season, private traders will be allowed to compete with cooperatives in the internal marketing of coffee. In the 1990191 crop season, following a review of the marketing board's role in the region, the Government intends to allow cooperatives and private traders to compete with the marketing board in the export of coffee. Further liberalization will be extended to other regions and products depending on the results of the first step. The Government has also completed a financial and management audit of the National Produce Marketing Board (Office National de Commercialisation des Produits de Base, ONCPB), and the Cotton Development Agency (Societe de Ddveloppement du Coton). A performance contract between the Government and ONCPB will be signed not later than September 1. 1989 and between the Government and SODECOTON not later than December 1, 1989. Parallel with the adjustment program, the Government is working to improve export performance through rehabilitating cocoa production and related support services and is preparing an export promotion and diversification project that will include institutional reforms and support for exporting agricultural products. 64. Institutional Reform. The Government recognizes that its excessive interference in the administration of cooperatives and in the - 22 - delivery of Inputs has proven very inefficient and costly. It intends to disengage from cooperatives to enhance their autonomy and reorganize the public support agencies. The governing legislation is being revised to deregulate the cooperative movement. The role of public support agencies will be redefined to provide more effective technical support to cooperatives and to vithdraw from interference in the cooperatives' administration. A reform program to privatize the distribution of Inputs and to phase out input subsidies is tinder implementation. Fertilizer distribution has recently been privacized and subsidies will be phased out over the next three years as part of a program agreed with USAID. The extension services will be streamlined to become more cost effective, including harmonization of services between parastatals and government ministries and the adoption of the training and visit extension system on a nation-wide basis. Research institutes will be restructured and reinforced to provide better linkage with extension services. In addition, a program to privatize veterinary services has recently started. 65. Forestry and Environment. Only about 40 percent of Cameroon's forest resources is being exploited. However, forest exploitation is not efficiently controlled due to the lack of a land use plan, inappropriate policy in the granting of concessions and licenses for exploitation and exports, and poorly trained staff. The Government is conscious of forestry and environmental problems and has completed a Tropical Forest Action Plan. The Government intends to implement the recommendations of this action plan. It will reinforce the Directorate of Forestry in forest management and streamline services provided by parastatals in forest inventory and forest plantation. The reform will involve the revision of the forestry code to authorize long-term concession arrangements in order to provide incentives for the concessionaries to maintain and control access to their areas of operation, rather than to exploit the areas on a one-time basis and move on to the next tract of forest, a prime cause of environmental degradation. The taxation system and the existing quota on log exports will be revised to provide incentives for exploitation of lesser known species and for better wood transformation. Norms and standards on wood products will be introduced to enhance the marketability of wood exports. The forestry code will also be modified to provide a legal basis for promoting agro-forestry, and for integrating local populations in the protection of national parks and reserves. Industrial Policy and Trade Reform 66. Industrial and trade policy reform is crucial to the success of the Government's adjustment program. As mentioned in the section on Public Enterprise Reform, the Interministerial Commission charged with this process has taken a number of basic decisions to liberalize and decontrol the economy and improve the incentives for production and export. Dismantling of the heavy regula.ory framework should permit a significant increase in the competitiveness and efficiency of the internal distribution system, which is necessary for Cameroon to improve its international competitiveness and establish new sources of export growth. - 23 - 67. Concerning external trade, the adjustment program will progressively eliminate quantitative restrictions (QRs) on the Import of all controlled goods, currently 180 lines in the tariff schedule. To allow adjustment of local production, QRs will be removed in three phases by 1991 for all goode except a very short list of strategic items. A first group comprising mostly consumer goods with very limited local value-added (e.g. water, paint, chemicals, non-plastic shoes, pipes, hand-tools) will be liberalised in June 1989. A second group including key intermediate and locally produced consumer goods (e.g. metals, plastics, paper, appliances, flour, batteries) will be liberalised in February 1990. The third group covering locally produced goods with high market share (e.g. soap, milk, salt, cement, garments) will be liberalised in January 1991. Given high levels of local value-added and employment, decisions on the phasing out of the remaining QRs strategic goods (i.e. vegetable oil, rice, sugar, cotton textiles) will be made in the first quarter of 1990 after analysis of the restructuring potential for the industries concerned. Tariff protection will be adjusted as necessary and will decrease over time to allow a progressive increase in external competition and an appropriate period of adjustment for domestic industries. The elimination of QRs will be complemented by the elimination of import licenses for all products not still subject to QRs; this measure will be taken in June 1989 with the elimination of the first group of QRs, prior to effectiveness of the loan. 68. The tariff retime will be further rationalized by the establisbment of a minimum import duty and the reduction of maximum cumulative duties in July 1990. This will provide a minimum amount of protection to domestic production of intermediate goods that are currently imported under low or duty free rates and will contribute to the reduction of the wide dispersion in existing effective rates of protection. Furthermore, the Government intends to support actively the process of reform of the common external tariff currently being studied by UDEAC. Finally, on the expor. side, all export taxes will be eliminated in July 1990 with the exception of export taxes on logs which will be reviewed in conjunction with the revision of the fiscal regime applicable to forest and wood products. 69. Concerning domestic commerce, the Government has embarked on a process of eliminating price controls for all goods and services with the exception of a short list of products of basic necessity. A first step was taken in this direction in January 1989 when the number of products and groups of products subject to price control was redefined and reduced from 87 to 35. The remaining categories are, nevertheless, extensive and include all inputs to products that remain subject to price control. The decontrol of prices will be fully effective in June 1989 with the elimination of the system of administered margins for all goods and services not remaining subject to price controls andlor QRs. This system currently determines the mark up for all products and services in the economy at both the wholesale and retail levels. The Government has now decided to eliminate the system of price controls except for a very short list of basic goods and services (mainly pharmaceuticals, flour, milk, - 24 - bread, rice salt, meat, petroleum products, passenger transportation, health services, water and electricity) and for a few other goods still under QRs. Price controls on the latter will be subsequently removed in parallel with the phase-out of QRs. 70. In addition to price decontrol, the Government intends to revise the re8ulatory environment governing commerce, business incorporation and partnerships, labor regulations and the Investment Code. The legislation governing commercial activity (loi 80125) will be revised by December 1989 to permit free competition at all stages of the distribution process, while protecting the consumer from unfair business practices and excessive concentration of commercial power. Second, the legislation governing business incorporation (OCode des Societesn) will be modernized in 1990 to facilitate incorporation and dissolution of companies. Third, the Labor Code will be revised by December 1990 to reduce labor market regidities. Last, the Investment Code will be revised by December 1989 to grant Incentives based on measures of performance such as value added, employment creation, training andlor export activity, rather than providing duty exemptions on imports. Eligibility under the new code will be open to all new investments, including extensions to existing production units. As a complimentary measure to promote exports, a study will be completed by December 1989 to identify appropriate export incentives, including improvements to existing institutional facilities. Reorientation of Sector Strategies 71. As a result of the wide participation of all major sector ministries in the development of the Government's structural adjustment program, the program includes a wide variety of measures to improve the performance of the economy in areas other than those described above. The matrix of policy actions presents the full extent of the Government's program, while the more important measures are summarized below: (i) increases in transportation user taxes for heavy vehicles using the road network, the ports and airports; (ii) definition of an air transport sector strategy, including a plan for rehabilitation, organization and operation of airports; (iii) formulation of operational strategies in the health and education sectors with a view towards preventing any decline in existing levels of coverage, particularly for primary services, improving quality and pertinence and recovering costs where possible; (iv) elaboration of a master plan for urban water supply and sewerage, and of a strategy for the participation of rural populations in the installation and maintenance of rural water supply systems; (v) revision of the petroleum legislation to encourage exploration by the international oil industry; - 25 - (vi) revision of the mining legislation to facilitate exploration permits and to grant mining concessions based on competitive bidding; and (vii) adoption of environmental norms and standards including regulation governing industrial wastes. Social Dimensions of Adiustment 72. The present economic crisis has led to a sharp reduction in per capita income and private consumption during the past two years, by -24 percent and -15 percent, respectively, compared with the 1985186 levels. In addition, in its zeal to redress the budget deficit, the Government sharply reduced expenditures on services that are crucial for the provision of basic needs of the poor, such as primary health and education. 73. The urban population has been most affected by the present crisis and will bear the brunt of the adjustment and restructuring measures included in the present program. The public enterprise reform will entail a curtailment of staff while the restructuring of government expenditures will reduce staff benefits and eventually the number of civil servants. Also, the envisaged tax increases will be borne mostly by the urban middle class. 74. On the other hand, the adjustment program contains a number of structural measures that will stimulate the urban private sector and facilitate the absorption of additional manpower. Among these are the gradual disengagement of the public sector from productive activities, the simplification of administrative regulations required to set up a private business, an improved incentive framework for SMEs, and the easing of liquidity problems in the banking sector. The liberalization of trade and commerce should also reduce the cost of many basic consumer goods that are produced locally, but are highly protected and expensive. Improved training policies would contribute to the strengthening of productive activities. 75. Until now, incomes in the rural sector have been protected from the harshness of the economic crisis by a system of price supports for major export commodities. However, this system is no longer sustainable in view of the negative effect on public sector resources, and official prices will have to be adjusted downwards next year. On the other hand, sectoral programs are being put in place to enhance the efficiency of cotton, cocoa, and coffee production and to cut processing and marketing costs. The foodcrop and livestock sectors will also benefit from better support services which will increase rural incomes. 76. The Government is extremely conscious of the effect that the decline in economic activity has already had on the poorer levels of the population and, for this reason, is both hesitant about proceeding too quickly with the envisaged liberalization of the economy and eager to put - 26 - in place mechanisms to assist the vulnerable groups mentioned above through the adjustment period. It is, therefore, in the process of drawing up an action program, to be supported by a proposed Bank financed SDA project (poverty alleviation and socio-economic participation) which is an advanced stage of preparation, to address these concerns. 77. The Government's SDA program is being elaborated by five working groups that deal respectively with population/health/social security, education/training, employment, the role of women in development, and the institutional framework including statistical measurement of social indicators. These working groups are developping action programs that involve all concerned parties, particularly non-government organizations, in a concerted effort to refocus and improve the social services currently available to the population. A particular emphasis will be placed on services aimed at primary health care, retraining of individuals who have lost their jobs, identification of labor intensive methods for carrying out public works and establishment of permanent household surveys to measure social conditions. Their work should generate important inputs and momentum in.o the development of human resource strategies. PART III - ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPACT OF ADJUSTMENT Medium-Term Prospects for Growth 78. Implementation of the Government's reform program is expected to arrest the three year decline in economic activity and restore the conditions necessary for a resumption of growth. The restructuring of the banking system and the settlement of government arrears to domestic suppliers, together with improved financial policies, should restore an acceptable level of liquidity to the economy and permit everyday transactions to occur on a normal basis. The restructuring of non-banking public enterprises will improve their efficiency, reduce the existing drain on public resources and increase their contribution to value added. The Government's program of administrative reform will improve control over personnel expenditures and enable the Government to stabilize its overall level of expenditure without further reductions that would jeopardize the economy's ability to respond to improved incentives and an improved financial environment. The program will also permit a restoration of key non-wage recurrent expenditures, as well as a minimum level of capital investment consistent with the growth potential of the economy. 79. In addition, the Government's program to liberalize trade and reduce administrative controls should result in a lowering of the cost structure throughout the economy. This will improve the incentive framework for the production of tradeable goods and the international competitiveness of the economy, thus enabling the economy to re-establish a growth path based on the exploitation and transformation of Cameroon's rich natural resource base. 80. With improved incentives and a resurgence of private investment, long-term growth of three percent per annum should be achievable, led by - 27 - the agriculture and manufacturing sectors. Non-oil GDP could grow by four percent per annum, while petroleum production is expected to decline by eight percent per annum.21 Restoration of a positive overall rate of growth would be a significant accomplishment following the ten year cycle of boom and bust, induced by fluctuations in world commodity prices, that allowed many structural problems to imbed themselves in the economy. 81. The resumption of sustained growth will require a restoration of the domestic investment rate in both the private and public sector. The current level of 10 percent of GDP will have to rise to 14-15 percent of GDP by 1995 (compared with 19 percent of GDP over the past decade), Implying a growth rate of 7 percent per annum over the next seven years. Since the Government will no longer have the resources to act as an engine of growth, private sector investment will have to grow faster than Government investment and regain to its pre-oil dominance of 80 percent of total investment in the economy. Import volumes will also have to Increase for growth to occur, but given the planned changes in the incentive structure (i.e., a more uniform application of import duties and a lowering of domestic costs of production), it should be possible to reduce the relative import content of industry, investment and consumption over the next decade, and contain overall import growth to about one percent per annum. 82. The macroeconomic projections shown in Annex I and summarized below are conservative in that they do not include any new oil production and oil exports. Traditional agricultural exports of coffee and cocoa are expected to grow at 3 percent per annum or slightly faster than long-term world demand as a result of improved pyxduction efficiency, switching into production of arabica coffee, and aggressive seeking of market share in the specialized cocoa Cameroon produces. Other agricultural exports, including timber, and manufactured goods are expected to grow by 4-5 percent per annim starting in 1990, as a result of government policies to lower domestic costs through deregulation and to provide better export Incentives. The growth in non-oil exports will, nevertheless, not be sufficient to compensate for the decline in oil exports over the next ten years, and the overall volume of exports of goods and non-factor services is projected to decline by 2.5 percent per annum through 1995. A positive overall growth in export volumes could occur towards the end of the next decade, however, once the negative effects of the decline in oil exports have worked themselves out of the picture. 2I Without new oil discoveries, the decline in petroleum production over the next ten years will be equivalent to one percent of GDP per annum and result in a contraction of the sector's contribution to GDP from 17 percent today to 5 percent in the year 2000. Oil exports are expected to decline by 10 percent per annum, which would represent a cumulative loss in foreign exchange earnings of CPAP 325 billion in nominal terms between now and 1995, despite a projected increase in world petroleum prices. - 28 - Key Economic Indicators (Base Case) Growth Rates (percent) 1987 1988 1989 1990 90-95 95-2000 GDP -2.8 -8.6 -6.0 2.4 2.3 3.4 Domestic Income -7.8 -10.0 -8.0 3.9 3.5 4.1 Exports -7.3 -3.8 -1.0 -1.7 -2.6 -0.4 Imports -9.8 -17.8 -18.0 2.3 0.3 2.0 consumption 0.9 -10.8 -6.7 2.7 2.9 3.9 investment -18.8 -19.1 -29.7 12.4 6.5 4.5 Domestic Savings -42.9 -4.7 -16.4 '3.2 7.3 4.9 Other Indicators (end of period) GDP per capita (1985 CFAP 000's) 393 348 318 316 305 313 Terms of Trade (1985-100) 53 50 47 49 58 68 Current Account (2 of GDP) -9.3 -6.8 -4.5 -4.7 -5.0 -4.3 Budget Surplus (2 of GDP) -12.6 -5.7 -1.5 -2.2 -0.4 0.1 83. Despite good growth in the non-oil economy, GDP per capita is expected to remain essentially constant over the next decade, as a result of population growth (2.9 percent per annum) and the decline of oil production. On the other hand, Cameroon's terms of trade are expected to imrove gradually over the next decade, from its current level of one-half the 1985 index to about two-thirds the 1985 index by the year 2000. This would cause domestic income to grow more rapidly than GDP, by 0.7 percent per annum, and permit a one percent per annum increase in per capita consumption during the second half of the 19909. 84. The Government's budgetary policy will contribute to the re- establishment of growth by maintaining a tight fiscal stance that avoids draining resources from the banking system and private investment. This implies limiting the budget deficit to a level slightly below expected disbursements of foreign financed investment projects, or about three percent of GDP during the next three years. Subsequently, the expected increase in non-oil tax revenue should be sufficient to attain basic budgetary equilibrium in the early 1990s. However, in addition to the structural deficit during the years of adjustment, the Government will have to mobilize considerable resources for the restructuring of public enterprises and banks over the next four to five years, which will increase the reliance on external borrowing. Budgetary policy will thus have tc. provide for a sharp increase in scheduled external debt service which las already risen from 10 percent of government revenues in 1985-87 to 27 - 29 - percent this year and is expected to average 30 percent of Goverrment revenues over the next five years. The Government's policy of administrative reform (to control and reduce wage expenditures) and revenue restructuring (to restore non-oil tax revenues to 14-15 percent of non-oil GDP) are thus key elements of the adjustment strategy. External Capital Requirements 85. The combination of declining export volumes, import requirements needed for growth and sharply higher interest payments indicate that the current account will remain in deficit throughout the next decade. It to expected to average US$625 million per annum over the next five years, equivalent tu 5 percent of GDP. Given the desirability of bringing net official reserves up to a positive level and meeting sizeable amortization payments, much of which is private non-guaranteed debt, gross capital requirements will average USS 1150 million per annum. About one- fifth of this amount can be expected from private investors and creditors in view of large undisbursed balances from these sources. The balance, about US$ 950 million per annum, will need to come from official creditors. This will require a combination of continued project loans, quick disbursing assistance, on the order of USS 250-300 million per annum over the four year period 1989190 to 1992193 and probably some debt relief. Some additional non-project assistance may be required for two to three years after this period, which indicates the long-term nature of Cameroon's financial difficulties. Rescheduling of bilateral debt with the Paris Club is expected to occur for the first time in May 1989; it would cover existing arrears as well as current maturities through the end of the existing IMP Stand-by program, i.e., March 1990. Additional reschedulings may be required during the following two years to finance the remaining gap through 1991/92 if sufficient fresh money cannot be mobilized. - 30 - Gross Capital Requirements 1988189 - 1992193 1988189 1989/90 1990/91 1991192 1992193 (in million of US$) Current Account Deficit 452 559 655 686 625 Amortization Payments 472 462 439 412 395 Incr. in Reserves (incl.IMF) -120 75 98 136 67 Reduction in Arrears 623 - - _ - Total Requirements 1427 1096 1192 1234 1087 Resources Disbursements of medium and long-term loans 456 768 937 954 889 Multilateral 109 361 397 396 387 olw IBRD (73) (193) (211) (202) (195) Bilateral 117 214 349 340 303 Private 229 191 191 218 199 Debt Relief 901 308 314 255 - Other Capital (incl. GAP) 70 20 -59 23 198 Total Resources 1427 1096 1192 1234 1087 86. The likelihood of realizing the above capital flows is supported by the large amount of committed but undisbursed project loans (US$ 1.7 billion as of June 1988) which should be disbursed within the above period, even with a rephasing of the Government's investment program. Nevertheless, an increase in the amount of official commitments to Cameroon above the average rate of the past four years (i.e., from US$ 350 million per annum to US$ 450 million p.a.) will also be required. It is expected that multilateral institutions would finance a larger share (60 percent) of the non-project assistance, while bilateral donors will increase the concessionality of their assistance from the current average grant element of 18 percent to an average grant element of 35 percent (e.g., terms of 25 years maturity, 5 years grace and 5 percent interest). In total, multilateral institutions would finance about 30 percent of Cameroon's gross capital requirements and bilateral donor. about 50 percent, one half in fresh money and one-half in debt relief. 87. In sum, Cameroon's macroeconomic prospects require a medium- term increase In indebtedness, in order to finance sufficient imports to stabilize production, increase investment and provide sufficient time for growth in non-oil exports to catch up with the decline in oil export earnings. The non-project borrowing contained in the above scenario would _ 31 - provide sufficient resources for the Government to restore essential services, complete unfinished projects more quickly than otherwise, and finance a large share of the restructuring costs of public enterprises and banks. In later years, when the cost of public enterprise restructuring would be over and budget equilibrium restored, the Government should aim to continue borrowing on a moderate net basis from external sources, as a means of financing the country's import requirements, and use these resources to reduce its indebtedness to the central bank and to transfer resources to the private sector by accumulating balances in the domestic banking system, as was the case prior to the current crisis. Creditworthiness and Risk 88. Cameroon's external debt ratios are rising quickly as a result of falling export values and the commitment of large loans on commercial terms during the past two years. Debt s,ervice on public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt has risen from 11 percent of exports three years ago to a projected 23 percent this year (1988189) before rescheduling; it will be 9 percent after rescheduling. In the absence of debt rescheduling, the capital inflows discussed above would increase the PPG debt service ratio moderately from 23 percent today to 29 percent in 1995 and 30 percent by the year 2000. The need to reschedule debt service over the next three years will exacerbate this pattern, however, by pushing PPG debt service up to 37 percent of exports in 1995, and 34 percent by the end of the century. Total debt service, including non-guaranteed debt, repurchases from the IDF and unidentified GAP financing would similarly remain lower than otherwise during the years of rescheduling, then average about 45 percent of exports between 1995 and the year 2000. PPG debt outstanding and disbursed would rise from 30 percent of GDP this year to 49 percent in the mid-1990's, and then decline sligthly by the year 2000. External Debt Service Ratios after Rescheduling (percent) 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1995 2000 Debt Service I Exports Public & Publicly Guar. 11 18 9 14 17 22 37 34 Total, incl. Pvt, IHY & GAP 29 33 22 23 25 30 43 47 Debt Out. & Dsbd. I GDP PPG 19 19 30 37 43 48 49 45 Total 24 23 35 41 47 52 56 58 89. Under the adjustment scenario outlined above, gross capital flows from the IBID would amount to US$ 935 million over 5 years. On a net basis, PPG debt would rise by US$ 3045 million during 1989190 - 1993194 - 32 - after debt relief of US$ 1800 million. The Bank's net credit position would rise by USS 680 million during this period or by 22 percent of the net capital flows. Multilateral debt outstanding and disbursed as a share of PPG DOD vould rise from 27 percent in 1989 to 36 percent in 1994, as no net change in debt outstanding to commercial banks is assumed. The Bsnk/IDA share of PPG DOD would remain constant at 20 percent over the period; within this total, IBRD exposure would rise from 13 percent to 17 percent in 1994, while IDA's share of debt outstanding would decline from 7 percent to 3 percent. Debt service to the IBRD would remain at its current share of PPG debt service, about 19 percent, through 1994 and rise to 21 percent by year 2000. Debt service to the IBRD as a share of exports would rise from 5 percent to 7 percent by the end of the century. 90. While the Bank's exposure would rise over the period, PPG debt service would decline after 1995 as the effects of rescheduling work themselves through the system. For countries in the CFA zone, the key indicator is external debt service as a share of fiscal revenues. This is currently 27 percent and is expected to average 30 percent of revenues over much of the next decade. While this level is high, the public finance scenario envisages a sustained reduction in domestic debt throughout the next decade, as well as real increases in capital expenditures and recurrent services. There would thus be a margin to reduce other budget items to deal with an unforeseen revenue shortfall before endangering the service of external debt. 91. The risks in this scerario stem from a slower Implementation of the Government's reform program thain expected, or from adjustment measures that are not strong enough to elicit the envisaged increase in private investment and non-oil exports. Slippage irn the reform program would be recognized by the international community and result in lower levels of quick disbursing assistance needed to finance restructuring of the banking sector and public enterprise reform. With less external SAL- type assistance at its disposal, the Government would most likely heed its instinct to balance the budget through further cuts in expenditure, as it demonstrated in 1986187 prior to discussing a stabilization program with the IMF, which would continue the momentum of the current recession. These factors would lower overall growth by one to two percent per annum over the next decade, compared with the base case, and lead to a further decline of about 15 percent in per capita consumption and income levels by the year 2000. 92. Export revenues would also be lower, less diversified and more vulnerable to external shock. But the current account deficit would not necessarily increase, in view of continued budget austerity and the monetary discipline of the Franc Zone that strictly controls credit and borrowing by the Government from the central bank. Reserves would become increasingly negative, however, implying further drawings on the Operations Account, and debt rescheduling would be required for more years than in the base case scenario. Less debt would be outstanding, but it would be about five percentage points higher as a percent of GDP than in the base case, as would PPG debt service as a percent of exports. Debt service to the IBRD - 33 - would be lower in absolute terms, due to lover non-project disbursements, but remain about the same as a percentage of exports and total PPG debt service. Risk to the Bank would nevertheless be higher to the extent that the country grows poorer. 93. There is an upside potential to be considered in the risk analysis, however. This involves the discovery of new oil fields following an improvement in exploration incentives. A modest assumption of finding new oil reserves equivalent to 30 percent of the original fields currently under production would accelerate GDP growth by one percent per annum and export growth by five percent per annum in the second half of the 19909. This would result in a level of GDP per capita 9 percent higher than in the base case by the year 2000. Oil production would represent 13 percent of total GDP, instead of falling to 5 percent as in the base case. Initially, the current account deficit would be slightly higher as a result of investment in oil production, but this would be fully financed by private sources, and in the second half of the decade, the average current account deficit would be only two percent of GDP instead of four percent. Lower borrowing requirements and higher government reverues, which would increase sharply starting in 1997, could reduce PPG debt outstanding by six percentage points by the year 2000. The PPG debt service ratio could then be much lower, 24 percent of exports versus 34 percent in the base case. Finally, the increase in government revenues, if unspent, could yield budget surpluses of two-three percent of GDP by the year 2000. The Government would then be in a position to reduce its external debt in absolute terms during the early part of the next century. PART IV - THE PROPOSED LOAN A. Loan History 94. The proposed loan was first discussed with the Government by high-level Bank missions that visited Cameroon in August .987 and March 1988. The Government subsequently prepared an initial draft of its Declaration of Development Str.tegy that was discussed by a Bank appraisal mission in July 1988. Two subsequent missions visited Cameroon in November 1988 and February/March 1989. Negotiations were held in Washington, D.C. in May 1989; the Cameroonian delegation was headed by H.E. Mme Elisabeth Tankeu, Minister of Plan and Regional Development. Supplementary loan data are provided in Annex III. B. Loan Amount and Co-financing 95. The proposed loan would support an initial 18-24 month phase of the Government's adjustment program. It would help finance the imports needed for economic recovery and growth and would be equivalent to 7 percent of Cameroon's external capital requirements over the period July 1989 to June 1991. The domestic currency generated by the loan would support the Government's overall budget and, in particular, support an - 34 - increase In key recurrent expenditures and the financial restructuring of the public enterprise and banking sectors. The proposed loan of US$ 150 million equivalent vould be disbursed in three tranches of US$ 50 million each, subsequent to satisfactory progress with implementation of the program and of the specific actions described below. 96. The African Development Bank has participated in the three technical missions to appraise and discuss this loan, and it is expected that the AfDB would co-finance the proposed operation with a loan " approximately VA 100 million equivalent to US$ 125 million. This 1o4n would be on standard AfDB terms and would be disbursed in accordance with AfDB procurement and disbursement procedures. 97. The Export-Import Bank of Japan has expressed strong Interest in co-financing this operation with She Bank serving as administrator in an amount to be determined folloming an upcoming evaluation mission. In addition, other multilateral and bilateral donors have expressed interest in providing non-project assistance to support the Government's adjustment program. At this time, resources totalling US$ 150 million have been identified. This includes US$ 100 million of non-project assistance already committed by France and expected to be disbursed during the same period as this operation. Other potential sources of non-project assistance include the European Community (STABEX funds), Csnada and Germany. C. IMonitorable Actions Items for Negotiations 98. During negotiations it was agreed that prior to loan effectiveness the Government would undertake the followings (a) Import licence requirements for goods which are not subject to quantitative import restrictions will be eliminated; (b) Quantitative import restrictions for a first group of goods will be removed; (c) Price controls ('homologation pr4alable") will be eliminated for most except for a limited number of basic goods and services and a few goods remaining subject to quantitative import restrictions; and (d) The system for setting commercial margins for goods and services which are no longer subject to quantitative import restrictions or price controls will be removed. 99. Disbursement of the second tranche of US$50 million equivalent, to be disbursed not earlier than March 31, 1990, is dependent on satisfactory progress in carrying out the Structural Adjustment Program - 35 - and in particular on the following measures being taken in a manner satisfactory to the Banks (a) The Borrower has adopted its 'Loi des Finances' 1989/1990 reflecting the public investment program, the levels of non-wage recurrent expenditures for the health, education and agriculture sectors and for road maintenance, and the levels of resources allocated to the restructuring of the banking and public enterprise sectors, as determined iu agreement with the Bank. (b) Progress has been achieved in the establishment and functioning of a system to program and monitor the rolling four-year public investment program. (c) Progress has been achieved on measures to reform the public enterprise sector, includings Ci) the signature of performance contracts between the Government and key public enterprises, namely SODECAO, HEVECAM, ONCPB, SONEL, SNEC, SOCAPALM and Office C*realier; and (ii) the completion of aegotiations of performance contracts between the Borrower and the following public enterprisess CANIKR, REGIFERCAM, and SODECOTON. (d) Action plans have been adopted to liquidate CAMBANK, BCD and FONADER and to restructure key commercial banks, including SCB. Ce) For the primary export crops, li) floor producer prices for coffee, cotton and cocoa and price schedules (Cbar&mes') for coffee and cocoa, for the crop season 1989-1990, have been published at a level consistent with minimizing the risk of requiring State support; and (ii) a system for sharing residual marketing surpluses (export receipts, less producer prices and marketing margins) has been established. (f) Progress has been achieved in the implementation of measures to liberalize trade and prices and to improve the incentive framework for production and export, includings (i) the removal of quantitative import restrictions (together with import license requirements) for a second group of goodst (ii) the elimination of price controls ('homolotation pr6alable') and of the system for setting commercial margins for a second group of goods; (iii) the revision of Law No. 80125 portant orientation de l'activit4 comuerciale permitting free access to trade at all stages of distribution and eliminating monopoly privileges; (iv) the promulgation of a revised Investment Code; and (v) the completion of a study on export incentives. (g) The Borrower has taken all steps within its power, both in internally and externally, to provide adequate funding for the esecution of the Program. - 36 - 100. Disbursement of the third tranche of US$50 million equivalent, not earlier than December 31, 1990, would be dependent on continued satisfactory progress in carrying out the Structural Adjustment Program and in particular on the following measures being taken in a manner satisfactory to the Banks (a) The Borrower has adopted its "Loi de Finances' 1990/1991 reflecting the public investment program, the levels of non-wage recurrent expenditures for the health, education and agriculture sectors and for road maintenance, and the levels of resources allocated to the restructuring of the banking and public enterprise sectors, as determined in agreement with the Bank. (b) For the civil service: (i) the system of personnel benefits and allowances (family, housing and travel allowances) has been revised; (ii) decisions have been taken on organizational and personnel structure plans for the ministries responsible for finance, planning, civil service and industry and commerce; and (iii) studies on organizational and personnel structure plans for three other ministries have started. (c) Further progress has been achieved on measures to reform the public enterprise sector, including the signature of performance contracts between the Government and selected public enterprises, i.e., CAMAIR, MAETUR, MAGZI, REGIFERCAM, SODECOTON, CDC, SOTUC, CRTZ and MIDENO, and action plans for other public enterprises determined in agreement with the Bank have been prepared. (d) Progress has been achieved in the restructuring of the banking sector, includings ti) the implementation of the action plans to liquidate CAMBANK, BCD and FONADER and to restructure SCB; (ii) the adoption of an action plan to restructure SNI; and (iii) the adoption of an action plan to restructure or liquidate BPPBC. te) The role of the National Produce Marketing Board has been redefined in order to permit the private sector to assume progressively responsibilities for internal and external marketing of export crops. (f) The forestry tax regime has been modified and a revised Forestry Code has been promulgated to promote rational exploitation and long-term conservation of forestry resources. (g) Further progress has been achieved in the implementation of measures to liberalize trade and prices and improve the incentive framework for production and export, including: (i) the removal of remaining quantitative import restrictions (together with import license requirements), except for a limited number of strategic goods to be determined in agreement with the Bank, following the results of a complementary study on said goods, for a third group of goods; (ii) the eliminations of price controls - 37 _ (ohomoloogation pr6alableg) and of the system for setting commercial margins for a third group of goods; and (iii) the promulgation of a revised labor Code reducing regulatory constraints resulting in labor maket rigidity. (h) The Borrower has taken all steps within its powers, both internally and externally, to provide adequate funding for the execution of the Program. D. Program Management and Monitoring 101. The Interministerial Committee established by the President to prepare and execute the structural adjustment program in collaboration with the international financial institutions, notably the IMF, the Bank and the African Development Bank willt - supervise the formulation and execution of the Government's economic policy and sectoral objectives; coordinate the respective interventions of the various government departments; and 3 ensure the follow up of the relevant action plans drawn up by the Government. The Interministerial Committee is chaired by the Secretary General of the Presidency and includes the Ministers of Finance, Plan, Industrial Development and Commerce, Agriculture, Civil Service and the National Director of BrAC. It will meet whenever necessary but no less than once every three months. 102. To assist the Interministerial Committee, the President also established a technical committee responsible for finishing preparation of the Declaration of Development Strategy and for monitoring implementation of the adjustment program. The committee is headed by a full time senior civil servant and includes high level, competent officials from key ministries, most of whom already were part of the working committee referred to above. The committee has proven extremely cooperative and effective during the final appraisal and is considered an appropriate instrument for the monitoring of the adjustment program. To further enhance its role, the proposed economic management project will provide logistical support. 103. Following the disbursement of each tranche of the proposed loan, the Committee will submit to tIte Bank a report evaluating progress made in implementation. This report will serve as a basis for the release of the next tranche. The Committee will submit to the Bank a final report on the program's implementation upon full disbursement of the loan. - 38 - B. Procurement, Disbursement and Auditing 104. Both private and public sector imports would be eligible for financing and subject to simplified ICB procedures for amounts exceeding US$ 5.0 million equivalent. For lesser amounts, (i) imports by private entities would follow normal commercial practices; wherever possible bids would be obtained from at least two countries eligible under Bank guidelines; ,ii) imports by the public sector would be in accordance with normal Government procedures which will be improved as part of the structural adjustment program and bids would be obtained from at least three suppliers. Imports would be verified by inspection agencies as part of the Government's efforts to improve customs collections. 105. The loan will reimburse the foreign exchange cost of eligible imports (excluding luxury goods and defense items). Disbursement would be facilitated by the establishment of a US$ 20 million equivalent Special Account in the central bank (BEAC). Bank financing of imports of foodstuffs will be limited to an aggregate amount equivalent to no more than US$ 30 million. The Ministry of Finance will be responsible for collecting the supporting documentation (copies of the invoices and evidence of shipment and of payment) and for preparing withdrawal applications. Disbursements would be against Statement of Expenditures (SOEs) for eligible contracts valued at US$ 5.0 million, or less. The supporting documentation for these would be retained by the Ministry of Finance and would be made available to Bank staff during supervision and audited annually by independent auditors. The nature and origin of the goods as well as the payment date would be indicated on the SOEs. Expenditures for goods procured under invoices for US$ 20,000 equivalent or less would not be eligible for financing out of the loan proceeds. All other disbursements would be made against full documentation submitted to the Bank. The minimum withdrawal application size vould be US$l million equivalent. In order to enable the Government meet urgent foreign exchange needs, the Bank would disburse up to 10 percent of the loan for eligible imports which were paid for and entered the country after March 31, 1989. An audit report, comforming to internationally accepted standards and prepared by auditors aprpoved by the Bank, will be submitted within six months after the close of each fiscal year. PART IV - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS AND STRATEGY Past Assistance Strategy 106. Bank and IDA commitments to Cameroon as of March 31, 1989 amounted to US$ 1,282 million equivalent, of which, US$ 494 million remained undisbursed, and covered 52 projectst 25 in agriculture, 15 in transportation, four in education, three in public utilities, one small- medium scale enterprise project, two technical assistance projects and two urban projects. Transport and agriculture account respectively for about 50 percent and 38 percent of these commitments. IYC had invested in 11 enterprises, with total net loan/equity comnitments of USS 20.6 million. - 39 - 107. Until 1975, the Bank's investment strategy in Cameroon was to support the Government's development efforts in three main directionss (a) strengthening and extending the road and rail trunk systems and improving the port of Doualat (b) raising agricultural output and exports; and (c) improving education. Since 1975, however Bank lending has diversified into forestry, small- and medium-scale industry, urban development, telecoununications and a technical assistance project. In the past year, the Bank has accommodated the country's difficult financial situation by restructuring ongoing projects to cut out lower priority expenditures and reduce the burden on the Government e budget. The main objective, however, has been to help redefine sectoral priorities in light of the current financial situation, and pursue a goal of comprehensive economic reform. Discussions leading to the proposed SAL greatly contributed in reaching basic understandings on a new course of action. 108. During past years, project implementation has been exceptionally slow due to delays in project processing and cumbersome procurement procedures. Fragmentation of responsibilities, lack of coordination among various ministriesiagencies, and bottlenecks in the central procurement agency have caused these delays. These problems have worsened as a result of the country's financial problems, the Government's lack of counterpart funds, and cost overruns caused by appreciation of the CFAF vis-a-vis the US dollar. In recent months, however, a noticeable speed-up in awarding contracts has occured, as a result of the Government's reorganization of procurement responsibilities. Improved procedures are expected as part of the adjustment program. Lending Program 109. The centerpiece of Bank assistance to Cameroon over the next few years should be structural and sectoral adjustment lending in support of the Government's policy reforms, providing fast disbursing resources to meet the economy's balance of payments financing needs. This would be complimented with selected investment projects to support economic growth. The adjustment being pursued by Cameroon will necessarily take a number of years to accomplish. Accordingly, the first SAL, described in this report, is likely to be followed by others that will assist the Government to consolidate and build on the achievements of the first phase. The design and implementation of action programs for the policy reforms would be assisted through a proposed Economic Management Project which is being processed in parallel with the SAL. Also, to respond to the legitimate concerns of the Government as to the social impact that a number of the reform measures included under the adjustment program will necessarily have upon certain segments of the population, a proposed poverty alleviation and participation project is currently being prepared. 110. In agriculture, the Bank lending strategy would support the Government's objectives in assuring food security for a growing population, and increasing export revenues. The proposed lending program would deepen the policy dialogue initiated under the SAL program and finance investments - 40 - that would enhance the impact of the policy reforms. This includes a recently approved livestock project to increase meat and milk production by strengthening the role of the private sector In the provision of services and improving the reduced role of the Government in the subsector. A national extension and training project and a food security project would enhance the role of mallholders in food production and marketing and target assistance to disadvantaged groups, including women, to raise incomes and improve their accessibility to food. A forestry environment project would address the management and rational exploitation of Cameroon's rich forestry resources, as well as conservation of the ecosystem. An export promotion and diversification project would increase traditional exports and diversify the export base through policy, investment and institutional measures for increasing production and promoting new products in new markets. 111. In transportation, priority must be given to improving the efficiency of parastatals and to the maintenance of existing infrastructure. New investments would be fully integrated with development of the productive sectors such as forestry or agriculture. The lending program includes a feeder roads project designed to ease the transport constraint on production and marketing in the rural areas; and hybrid sector project combining financial restructuration of transport parastatals, sector policy improvements and a program of sector wide expenditures for maintenance and rehabilitation of infrastructure as well as selective capacity investments. 112. In the urban sector, the strategy aims to improve delivery or urban services and transfer responsibility from central government to municipalities and from the public to the private sector. This strategy relies on a three-pronged approach of improving resource mobilization, strengthening urban institutions and upgrading key infrastructure to support the development of economic activities and improve the living and working environment, in particular, in the poorest areas of cities. A Second Urban Project was recently approved and a third is programmed in a few years. 113. The Bank is encouraging the Government to formulate pertinent and sustainable strategies in the human resources sector (education/training and health) which could be supported by sector reform operations. PART VI - COLLABORATION WITH IMP AND OTHER DONORS Relations with the IMF 114. The structural adjustment program has been developed in close collaboration with the IMP and is consistent with continued implementation of the existing Stand-by arrangement. The need to restore non-wage recurrent expenditures in key sectors, maintain a minimum level of government capital expenditures and provide in the budget for the restructuring of the banking and public enterprise sectors has been - 41 - discussed with the Fund staff, and there is agreement in principle that allowance for these features of the adjustment program will be incorporated in future performance cirteria. Both institutions are keenly interested in the reestablishment of a viable banking sector, and both see the need for a significant increase in non-oil tax revenue over the medium-term. Aid Coordination 115. Given Cameroon's fairly comfortable economic and financial position ttrough 1985, concessionary aid flows have been negligible. On the other hand, it had ready access to borrowing from commercial, bilateral and multilateral sources. With the onset of the 1986 crisis, however, a number of bilateral donors have agreed to soften substantially their lending terms, in certain instances even extending IDA type conditions. Much of the aid Cameroon has received to date was obtained on an ad hoc basis and very little donor coordination took place. With the decision to embark on a structural adjustment program, which entails a detailed review of the public investment program and an assessment of ongoing and future aid flows, the Government has become aware of a greater need for aid coordination. The Government is thus considering the possibility of holding a donors' meeting, either locally or as a Consultative Group, for the purpose of coordinating future aid to ensure its use for high priority projects and presenting a case for increasing the level of concessionality in official lending to Cameroon. It is also looking towards the Bank to approach additional donors, other than the African Development Bank, to support the adjustment program. Indications are that Japan, Canada and possibly the European Community and Germany will participate in this or future SALs. The Bank has actively associated these donors as well as France, which has already approved structural adjustment type financing to Cameroon, with the preparation of the ongoing reform program. Now that the Government has finalized its Declaration of Development Strategy, it plans to present this document to the donor community as the basis for mobilizing additional resources. PART VII - RECOMMENDATION 116. I am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank and I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan Barber B. Conable President by Moeen A. Qureshi May 16, 1989 Washington, D.C. - 42 - ANNEX 111-RAW-414, IMT04785L A0355 Page 1 of 7 196 Par emits Or as lAS Kid-lW ftp.la.dm 001W) 10.9 om... FI.l. sa* u.1 A. htt...l Acmte Idlat *wat. Sh1 8)twPrm Waron of Grow. Somaw t"A" edet 0). toCme"a low5 Prico" iw v. us. sa 1wo 1967 too iwo itw aws 211141 Ona., Coom"et) Product e.g. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 10O.0 100. 100.0 100.0 10.0 100.0 100.0 W"t ladrto TeamO 8.0 8.5 4.6 4.4 4.0 4.0 0.4 0.7 Aerileailura So.7 so.81 11.9 11.4 01.1 13.5 04.8 9199 01.1 20.4 81.1 &%&Aduf 20.81 18.6 219.9 40.6 00.0 $6.8 010.0 618.9 00.1 11.48 0.1 (at .816b wf.tctarlco) 9.8 10.0 T.9 14.7 14.0 18.9 2189 10.8 1.0. 14.6 181.61 (at whible Oil) .. . .3 18.7 17.0 16.9 17.1 17.5 18.0 0.0 51.1. Smwima 47.0, 80.6 46.8 88.0, 87.4 86.8 14.61 811.0, 8.9 18.4 85.0 fta..uv al h... 06.9 8.81 8.1 -10.9 -7.5 -7.8 -11.9 -18.1 -18.9 4.5 43.4 Rivert.of on5 219.8 00.7 04.1 U8.0 20.6 99.0 99.T 81. 80.0 .99. 19.8 Iqaort of 0n 4.8 04.0 07.0 03.4 23.2 90.6 18.8 18.2 18.1 14.7 18.0 7.6.1 LT Imtuv.e 100.8 103.81 �01.1 00.4 13.8 13.4 68.8 84.9 00.1 91.8 94.6 Total Ow8wiU 00.0 68.4 84.8 80.6 74.2 7?. 1.0 7 4. .? 78. 17.4 78.7 Private Cansmmpgten 74.9 71.8 78.8 87. 13.2 08.1 84.0 68.9 64.8 68.7 611.61 Coatral Oaan....tA 18.0 1.6 6..7 10.1 10.0 14.0 11. 10.8 10.6 10.7 10.9 Gram. Comucti ba..tbmmt 1.3. 19.9 Is.9. 9. 10. 8. 18.81 18.6 10.9 11.0 14.1 14 9 M1A,4wt (lad. Puab.ffntr.) .. . . 20.1 U.JL 6.8 10.0 7.91 6.9 131.2 it. Central nwoermut . . . 7.8 7.2 6.8 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 Cee.cilt to Iugrt MA.. . 1. 1.8 18.1 18.81 18.1 18.1 14.9 14.4 T*rmof Traile "mjatm.t .. . . .1 -7.8 -10.1 -13.4 -18.0 -18.9 48.8 -4.9 Gris, nswati lumeon, .. . . 0.9 12.7 01.9 68.6 84.0 88.1 91.7 16.1 Oram. Nabtim Zacome U. . . 0.8 67.6 84.4 00.0 13.8 68.8 68.0 91.8 Oroma Ibtices Predwua .. . . 8* 95.1 90.8 98.7 98.0 97.02 8. 96.8 Grove Ocasetc swing 13.0 18.6 18.7 80.2 310.51 10.9 11.8 10.1 11.0 14.81 18.4 NO fabtor ho...w -6.7 -7.6 40.0 48.4 -4.9 42.8 4.8 -2.0 42.8 4.7 .4.9 U"t Cu"aart Trseafow. 0.0 -1.8 -1.4 -0.4 -0.8 40.9 -1.1 4a.0 40.6 4.8 4.8 Grove SiAtiomal Swying 8.8 7.8 8.4 09.4 13.4 6.4 6.9 7.6 7.7 10.1 11.8 S. Nationi AeontS Ormth M I. (1) at, iwo C...tot A-lms 199878 1978140, 199046 1t8 1S67 19ow 1969 1990 19901-9 415-9000 are". Somatic Prduct e.g. 2.8 0.8 7.4 9.9 42.8 4.6 46.0 9.4 0.8 8.4 U". ladirect Tax". 04.7 99.0 -18.1 -.4. 18.5 7.6 4.8 Agriguitwor 4.6 5.0 1.9 6.1 8.4 0.8 1.0 8.0 8.9 4.6 Zodues6y 4.4 18.? 18.8 8.8 -.4. -9.9 -11.7 0.9 -0.4 2.1 (.98) Namcfeabaoriug) 8.4 6.0 18.0 8.7 -4.7 49.0 -18.0 4.0 8.0 4.0 (of which OIlI) 2... 04. 1. 4.1 -7.8 42.7 48.2 4.8. 4.0 Service. 0.0 9.0 4.1. 48.4 -13.8 -8.6 2.0 0.5 8.0 Esaorta of an 8.7 10.6 18.0 -0.1 -7.5 43.8 -1.0 -1.7 .4.6 40.4 luporteof on 8.8 6.9 8.9 6.1 -.9. -17.6 -17.9 9.8 0.8 0.0 Total Igmpwdit.ra. 0.8 6.7 4.0 18.0 43.0 -13.2 -10.2 8.9 8.4 4.0 Total Conmt1a. 1.5 8.0 8.8 18.0 0.9 -10.8 48.7 0.7 0.9 4.0 P,i..t. Casepleft ~ 1.0 8.8 9.7 17.8 -1.4 -7.8 -4.1 8.0 8.1 4.0 Central baawoot 8.2 4.6 7.7 8.6 12.9 -99.4 -.4. 0.9 1.7 8.8 Oram. DomaUe lavatom. 81.8. 11.8 7.1 2.4 -18.8 -19.1 40.7 12.4 6.5 4.5 Private (Intl. FA6. btr.) .. . .0.5 -13.7 4.1 -95.8 18.1 7.0 8.0 central bacramont .. . .8 -13.7 -80.8 -40.6 8.0 4.6 2.8 Gram. momati 1a ~ 1.0 8.6 7.9 1.8 -7.8 -10.0 46.0 8.9 8.8 4.1 Greas National lumenA 1.6 8.6 8.7 9.1 40.8 -9.9 -4.8 2.9 8.8 4.2 Oreas. Ntlomal Poodu" 9.0 9.0 6.1 10.5 -1.8 40.8 -4.7 1.8 2.1 8.85 Oram. Somatic Saving 8.8 218.2 04.1 46.6 -40.9 -4.7 -18.4 18.2 7.8 4.9 Nat Planter lacom 7.0 9.7 40.4 -10.7 40.4 -10.6 480.6 47.6 -18.8 45.8 et Corrast Transfere is.. 1. 14.6 74.4 7.8 -47.0 6.8 -1.7 -10.7 Ova.. Natiml 06,1mg ~~~~~~~-1.0 19.0 0414.8 -2 -. .0 5.4 7.9 6 .4 - 43 - ANNE I OVImTm- 1. PZWLWS (00";M Fage 2 of 7 _ee.. PiG611 IW * �96t4119. C. Prig dle.. CIW " I Aabmi Pr.l 1ewM Projectlion Grano tbe (Co p__) w1o am a11 SW sam 1og. lw - am tvwa-ia 197.D 11s,0W IwV 154000 beamw Priem (193.10) 86.8 1.0 112.4 1.0 ;81o 1.- 1o 0.1 149. 7 .5 11.6 a.1 0.4 4.4 lIitit w DP0l~(1WO1tm 5A. 100. V6.8 96.9 07.9 96.1 11 191.0 7.4 10.8 7.8 0 0.4 &piolts bsj. Diter 8.4 10.0 1.7 ".a 7.7 to.e *.5 Defatiare, for MIctII vA: D.rioslt.re ate,o 57.9 100.0, �00.8 10.8 4.2 35.2 5.9 lumd.atrie asrter 18.3 100.0 00.8 77.8 4.1 .0. 8.8 Servie tastor 82.9 100.0 1.9 106a 10.7 9.0 *Q D. 061.. radiators (U p.m.) 195-7 1975.40 IWMO.- 1965.4 1905.85 415-990 aw aua am it Ma all VP 42.5 8. 4.8 Dowletico 2.0 2.9 9.9 1.9 8.tere of Tot Lat_ Fre 4.0 4.0 4.0 LAwr f1 lt Orm Own. _am p.c. 4.8 0.0 1.1 Arealtrev 79.8 Privet. ama tie. P.o. -8.0 0.2 1.0 Iamtr 6.7 Seiam 14.0 Import el otellt Tout t100.0 Imperts (0.WG)jVP(a) 1.80 0.67 0.89 8.80 0.18 0.81 Grew f_elol n _Soviae .0.0o 0.06 0.80 1.01 0.24 0.10 Grow leme l 1ile 0.8 0.22 0.8 8.97 0.47 0.21 l13 (p _od avorum) 5.8 1.8 2.7 -11.6 5.7 4.2 o a ga -41.8 8.7 8.8 IL lt l Ammms (b1lame of at son Pelt.): Astea Prel |iel. PVoj4Wtl*%. 1a3 a. 1Mm 196 sin tw1 IWO4 1961 to" 19O 1o"4 IO 20o OrF.. Do.ti Proie MuP. am1 8am 5 28 W71 86W 8am 87m 8am 4011 4109 40 be1.4 tries Tax"e 145 111 n 151 lee to u M Ms M M4 M goe Su Igriselterse 154 $94 95 VS4 WV g7m 1006 I=5 1 1195 117 1119 I=9 IaDeete 764 I4115 1886 184 18M I11112 1114, 1190 1168 17 119 1197 188 (Of a11iak 01040feeteriao) 61 M7 M7 so M 457 475 496 M9 89 Ws5 SW 611 (of ubla D) .. 7n 740 717 6 M7 6 81 4 48 414 Ws so Swvice. 10;6 19 15 14 87 17 10 I3 1. 1869 146 141 178s a m- , Golae. 45 -d3o -M 468 418 -M 417 -WO -87 408 4-M -37 -M pait.* of US 894 18 16 9t 114o 118 18 101t8t u 1 M M on 4 7Sperta of an me s mneo MtT1 onee 61 tte M 1 S Toft. Sexpeeditereeg am16 16 861 841 am6 am 844 8480 as" am6 am 468 Totel Consumption g 96 a1 SW a2 7o a1 on5 a9 am3 85 S1 8 Privet. CsAeetion 1961 gm 9m10 97 17 1115 .9 2441 gm Sn37 1782 30 S74 CmtWeI b.an rnmm M 482 94 86 485 M6 86 416 492 411 410 448 M7 cram DmetOc 1ave"t 497 730 79 84 8 70 418 4t M an W 7 80 Privet ClasS. P. _bt.) . 41 484 64 d 9 96 M see 8 406 438 468 6O4 cftrai brm t M 8le t 7 18 1 4 t11 19 1 1t in ine -a_iAs to iteert M 18 974 o SW M an 1 Ot 4s 111 g19 tO TWem of Trad AdJastet 47 4 -1 413 4n1 -M7 41 -488 -M -M -o 4- 44 ngtea Catiol ome 964 W86 41 am 1 8am0 3M 188O 84 a7m1 8046 4898 Cram S9oei am 9406 874 8606 86277 83 802 810 8911 8607 8404 1840 94 4 a n Oblel map,oit asi2 6749 4143 40 a4 am O6T a4 862 a8 am 86 474 Gron Dwetis Gee 418 15 W7 9 418 W 415 404 465 3 * 7 M66 754 St Pete (lame -M 4 -.us -14 -110 -78 -106 -1. -8 -181 -161 -us -15 " Coronet Transform. -19 -1 -9 46 -4 .9 - U 462 41 4 41 40 UP (bilI lam of carrw CM 15a" am 4N16 40 87611 07 a e 8m7 6746 8o" 46 46 86 W v.o. cages (thowemd CP) 418 M 84 8 816 U W811 8M S37 aS37 8 ANNEX I UtTSL 13456 F~~age 3 of 7 A. VaSe... Volvo end PriemeAt Pool i.eer roJeto Iwo aom i,s SW7 '6 1969w sm. smo sm4 iwo 11914 lowo Cdt.. ~~~~ ~~~~ ~~~~ ~~107 100 1as 4 101 10 10 10 1in 11o 1in In 141 Coae. 00~~~~~~~~~~~~~s 10 so 1no 10 In 1to 110 II19 32 1in 110 3 Oth. twig. no10 94 as a0 00 a2 is 10 10 10 1to to oil 7 10 1to 99 g0 a0 61 07 8 ad a2 a5 4 Nemte.tur. No10 10 in0 1311 141 146 in us3 16 171 1in 1 A!.mistuIe no10 a0 8 6 57 9 #I es so 76 P7 10 TotetNercb. awortw FM 10100, 0 90 94 92 90 00 7* 77 8 18 so Nergohealee Export. Vv.-Coerteet Oremoe (bl II oo 0K) C .. 6a 110 112 a4 00 U 70 78 7, 61 a0 9 1831 C40010 74 107 05 as a as a of 71 73 00 10 M. fA6rie so 6 70 a6 67 78 60 M7 96 104 114 10 OilI 106 M 419 26 24 M0 21 190 1I" 177 M8 we9 15 Kemdatar.e 2 M9 46 41 45 05 83 54 a7 S1 s 78 110 AlwalItims .. 4 a0 1S a go 26 26 go 00 131 7 61 Tote! March. SON.t #M 575 110 772 5u 476 400 490 400 490 514 5a4 s8l 761 Merchandise Lsopero . - V o i m~~~~--olm Jade 19010 * 40 Saw 0 6 102 219 211 16 1no 31561 14 14o 1 1in 10o POL end Other O.w 4000, 100 SW7 M6 M2 119 30 1UN M2 100 1" 1in M6 ottim.rlxpere 1M 10o 10 00 66 as 71 i1 is 75 6 as Other Cotmewe lood. as 1100, 121 mm 309 61 63 00 a a a SI 87 Iotegeedl.te 04.. . 100 li6 128 so 74 74 72 71 71 78 78 7 Cepitelt ods SOO16 a as 69 SI a6 64 ay as 78 P 9 Tote! Nort. lepart FMB .. 1 114 114 92 78 TY ?6 78 70 so 79 00 Nerd.ueiee jeperte - V ele.- C err~----- ale .tar Priem. (billion. 0A) Pk," Os~~~0 45 as s9 so 41 40 46 s9 so 7 87 84 ML oad otrbw rw 84 4 4 5 2 I 2 1 a 2 2 a a Other Jeporte M5 46 6m2 491 018 00 054 862 869 8a1 425 446m other Caeaeer 0oads 47 70 as 67 74 6a 64 64 U5 o7 70 74 9 Intermediae. Go.d. 19 218 21 246 1M 174 170 171 170 175 17 197 07 Capital Goaods 111 1 17 1S6. 127 1N0 115 1to 14 189 us 175n Tofte Norob. mesrte FM 42 8a8 571 M 453 679 96 405 410 411 414 400 66 Country todiese - P r i . e~~~~~~~-fc Indic". 1908 Nerdsmmdi.. Efxport. 100 70 so 46 46 49 6 a 61 U5 To 10 HereA Adl" Imeorbe 100 9 94 92 M910 M0 1no 10 10 l20 14a H" Ch. To"e. of Ted. 100 72 8 80 47 4f, 66 M6 as so so as S. Shmare of Toel X ow N C11) as eurreet prie.. C. O,oeth lilet. (5) at eOametee prlae Aeteal Projections, Actual, ProJetoIGe son iou iw11 io i9wo Lou 2uo 1966-78 1978-60 iwo-us 9iiiss-w iwo-os oS.GOa Herceadwi.. Exports Coffee 000 0.0 18.7 IS.0 17.8 1.8 2.6 . coon. 19.6 9.7 18.6 14.8 216.6 5.7 2.6 8.0 Mt. Agr!. 6.8 19.1 20.2 26.7 0.9 4.9 5.8 Oil 00.1 66.6 831.3 80.0 19.6 -4.8 -10.8 -12.61 Nao.fetereeft 6.4 8.4 12.3 12.9 14.5 6.9 4.0 4.0 Alumielue 0.1 6.0 6.6 6.1 -10.4 6.6 6.0 Tote! Morth. Exprft FO 160.0 160.0 100.0 100.0 -2.2 43.6 -. Herchm'.d!e Imports Food .. .. 8. 6,6 0.2 7.8 5.1 7.1 49.9 .4.6 POL A 0Othr berw . 12.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 -2.6 2.8 8.0 Other Sweet. .. .. 6.9 00.6 91.8 91.9 94.2 -9.9 2.0 2.S Othe Cenemer on"... . 10.9 38.7 181.8 18.4 14.8 46.6 0.0 0.6 ?aoere.diet ande .. . 44.7 41.9 41.1 40.6 40.0 .4.6 .0.8 1.7 baiftel am"d .. . 0.5 85.1 00.4 83.0 83.7 .-18.8 8.8 4.0 Tot.! Metal, lepare Wi 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 -7.7 0.6 2.0 - 45 - ANNME I U4%94W 60ll6S1 C_ - _MA= OP M1_ff Page 4 of 7 (1 ell Igim at Gorro" Fries) jAme Pacluel 96a 6416 A. beerSI of bam" & we ON? 0854 0573 am?1 S 1 aS m 4 03 1. reiwAsed Om me) 141 Its lm 163 18E 586 151 1"a an6 116 1646I 0m 0. Nan-Factor G"Ieem 8W 41 on? 86 456 4061 418 4814 486 Go sn1 8 906 0 D. Ipwtm or bad. & on =a4 1i09 04 0SW am 196 SW6 on0 01418 gm4 810 on6 SW8 I. u.reSgmdle (6I6) 144 185 147 118 1464 an6 109 M81 184 186 1466 1me g1m S. ".a-Fmetor ft"lo.. s90 a1" 9t 9ii so 13 89o 78 76 7 us Su s11 C. bm"* _lew. -M S" a -0 -s -s 0 -43 -a4 61 43 as 101 0 0. U.s Feeler lees.. -164 -518 -861 ~~~~~ ~~~-44 -486 49 -45 .86 -87 -my7 -5 -64 418 z _lU1.Fstswr uee 0 u t 9 8 46 UZ -1& -0 -t1 -as -0 a 4 6 0. FeelerberSew no9 2 616 81 as 46 81 0 as $60 an lnt.erem "saw") 119 2" Sy us m 1ts sit 1 m 4t1 486 473 4t nS 0 6. Nw% Carrent Truawfere a -48 49 -106 -147 .74 40 -86 -a .73 448 - -16 5. Cerrat 5eelt 1n S 0 t1 96 1 1 t7 1 07 110 11 m 1n3 e. *whrerm, nt ace 1 1 a S a 8 8 a a 6 4 4 8 b. other cerIest troe. 0 1 1 91 50 1 10 103 W0 10 Su 11 148 0. CensuS pqvrnm in6 146 1i6 19 61 176 la 1as 191 166 06 Us so6 0 0. ar _ tU A~t blues. 465 85? -401 -1171 -0 -4 -89 -6 -0 -us -8 490 -0 a. LFn- erm Capital Ut2 w on 040 as 7 -U 7 -S an "a 6 8 a" 71 1. sfl..t iestmm. 1 01 0 81 84 SI 6 66 6 a 50 9? i8 2. 0911.1. Capital Oruet 0 8. I" LT Los" (we d.t) Tat. 810 to -69 77 100 -1t as 46 843 44 47 470 a. Olahoresmst. 86~~~~~~4 867 - 818 85 406 78 667 614 an 917 IOU 1466 b. semiotr 114 r s 487 46 481 412 486 48 40 8n 46" 665 4. Other LV .toflas (ma9) t 0 H. Tl Othr lIes. (aet) -15 -8 TO on 86 8 -11 t42 4O 1o 149 10 in 1. H" OhmrtTM ceeel -Us -#r w9 46 -144 as -11 -16 -16 6 as 66 6 2. Coartal fle" N.SIt.o U. G 0 0 0 0 0 4 1o -15 a 10 16e 78 S. Erroreadbl.Omieles 185 -18 165 -16 478 0 0 0 a 0 0 0 0 1. Global Helene. 145 as 11s -48 -81 -39 -01 -018 -119 o7 87 4 0 J. F}leemeluO ceugs. toa U.t lint, -4148 -88 -2178 8a8 48 1we -78 -a8 -1i5 -or -87 -4 0 1. etCC.sdltfhr1maDr -17 0 0 0 0 10 06 0 47 -47 47 -4 0 S. DOe Manre etau. -in -6 -118 an 48 0 -98a -40 .4 Go o.1 -ue -ae9 -6a7 41 -0 Fuindnmi.l low (errsm.,.o Arrears IS" 070 -60 Deatb nel ef *O t 814 e s Oh Priucipatt 18? 01 019 111 shares of CP(Cutest CMA: 1. SIree Hene 40.1 10.6 0.0 -4.8 --.a -0.1 0.0 4;.4 4 .0 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.4 0. Tota Jtre fs3eow 5.6 8.4 .0. 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.6 8.0 8.4 3.4 8.6 8.5 5e.0 8. Ctierrt Asesst ble. 4.8 4.0 4.6 -0.8 4.8 4.9 -4.7 4.8 4.6 4.0 4.1 4.0 -4.8 4. LT Copftl Ullue (Ite 0) 6.0 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.6 0.1 0 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.0 4.1 8.7 3. U. Credit from e 3W 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.8 4. -S 4. 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nno -ru.e Ites. 0.0 CDP (ael Ilam of Car". 186) 7499.0 878 10177 1018 10265 1184 1191 1MM0 3285 IVa 1 lam186 198 Forelo. I Whue Rirs.:t 1. 1t1l. bper,..(W toPfficial) go06 -nts -4 451 -214 -180 -06 a3 50 84 84 0. Old (and ,r L.esdsprice) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. arin bum.'... luel. Held is 066 -"ts -Us -66 -05 -166 -06 48 so 84 0 4. Gres. le. Si b.at. Isportt. 0.8 1.1 .6 4.9 -1.8 -1.8 40.8 4.1 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 CEdmaugo Helm (LOJIISSt 1. no. 0t. -Rt.S b05 471 a" 819 6 us us u u us 8ME us u 2. CtrU I f.24mte(11014 48 as a 100 0 4 OR 0 78 7o 03 -0 is - 46 - ANNEX I uw,.u eisa41111 669c a o UI9& OM aPage 5 of 7 Mas. Ronn t1o - 1*014/1911 Asia., Prelidmrsuy PmJeRs, A. O 10 1am iO 1ow 10 1 19t" 191 1999 i1 1994 19S 9000 1. *bi t Publicly Oar.LT 84 le 9 961 406 8o as of W6 786 749 790 O"Ielal Caeditr, 0 we 1" 41 s4o s Sys 746 8 so0 640 on Ws ghitiI.t.1t 62 so as 116 92 106 8s 87 Su 87 Ot1 9 WS of skieb 1* 4 U 6 a 7 8 t1 an i ls UR 2 211 of ableb ZA * 19 4 4 6 2 1 I 0 0 0 0 0 0 ta I176 I 9TSS 32 1o 117 14 849 8O m 4 U 4 privebo C.ditm. 814 92 40 40 187 1 10 11s 140 91 110 1 #0 Pollel pineaisiel bibsi. 2. Priva Nihrntar. ur so t6 no 2is 148 so a 76 ye 1 166 2 111 S. ToUt LT 0ismvewto at 87 e 61 am 466 766 9 4 at 917 no 148 4. Drftr h.. 0 0 0 0 0 120 9a 0 0 0 0 0 0 aI NI S,riMn T Capital 0 -e 879 467 -144 8 -1s -16 -16 8 as 8 as e. Tout loaf. D8 a tS 624 -179 97 " 406 0 on Wi O to in 196 14 B. R.eat 1. PiII. A Ambliel. O.t. LT 42 916 916 160 mJ 4 mS 8 so 8n 4n MS 0181.. Otrdium go a 84 16 in6 174 918 no soy 2 9 84 5 11steral.u 10 29 34 45 Oa 79 n 75 so so 12 141 2 --3 which d11111) 4 18 17 t 4 s8 89 46 1 so Ss 8 18 of ablcb ink 1 1 1 1 a 2 8 a a 8 4 4 6 SIIsu.t 18 Ss 8o0 S1 7 10 143 I4 17 U32 las s I"4 Prilvat Cr,diitm 84 Ss 76 61 91 97 U12 1la 114 in 101 le 139 Swa1lim 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 pia..iol 1bgbte 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 S. Pre t . LT 8 0 291 6 23S 386 387 as a so0 6 4 210 8. 1.tI LS A r 114 884 45T 42 41 472 4t6 440 412 an 415 W Su 4. 38 tNuvds.m _U 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 Sy 8 4 0 S. yet. zoo SW 11 854 48T 426 451 472 463 440 450 468 472 Sp 6s C. I9.t S. P11a to A PASOtgly Gar. L 14 1 12 1 26 S" 6 45 4 442 818 0181.1.1 Craditbor 41 11T 75 60 114 134 224 as an S 40 406 486 oltil brnIt 1i 97 84 47 60 69 72 92 114 in la 1 8T of obih me is1 1s 25 Ss 46 8 68 61 n 7 o e4 U 11*7 dotkhM 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 *1 lsimb is aS 41 46 so 68 3m 1n 218 242 268 Sa 28 Privae tJCrditors as 8 81 8# is 26 84 ay7 ay t7 8a a 76 SpIiwa 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ftbiol Ibube u 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2. Priv.t.n,41mar. U Is 194 m UO 94 s 44 42 48 81 so 46 106 8. teS l LTlret no 2J_ as go gn 80 ST 412 446 47 4" mS 4. VWvS.a.e Caru. 9 0 0 0 0 a 9 9 9 * 8 0 0 S. It.rmA co sur D 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 S. T1 l lawl. VW&Not W 12 99 2 255 ga Su 6 421 419 478 476 6s0 (SWtIM" an me" VW) - 47 -ANN I u.RarO 01:8186 Com- offal" C4M.r .wOm Page 6 of 7 (WO slil_m at Current Ptices) 1AIs Pinot, 1 11<4/lw. Leteat Fret lsIes.~~~~~~~~~~ Frojectionss 0. Interest Debt (MO. 1*60 am 1. 107 low imS lo 1I am 1am low ii. Om *. RAI le A Pibblyl Oar. LT gm am0 gm Us Om a 46 81" NW Om 679 0tft4t0l cntfl- 111111 a"t MD I$ = ss M a m O 4 lhltit..l 46 86 61 40 91U 6 8 186 * 91* 2851 4*6 805 af tabi 1o 9 Ua So 864 4a no 76 no 16 11D 1m 161 Of ..40b U 146 US 1 Su1 1 U U S 2US 1 914 US Sll*a I ? VW on 18 114 WV gm a So SW am am 47t4 privtew Crdita S 11 4 4a8 4U 8o 6s 8 8n 7 4a7 461 o S_Ilt. 141 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Flmaale lalrkea 66o 0 0 0 a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 S. Privat Ibm-ar. LT 1in a" No m Su 84 84J a0 47 14t *. Total LIs-Ter 00 am g0 gm 16 00 84 41 wll 624 S7W 7 74? O"Cl 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4. SF Crd1t i8 0 0 0 0 16 144 14 107 8o 2 -1 - S. Uwr%-Tra Debt m7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6. Total Ueel * Al �1b 67 a1 gm g2s am Me 46 61 am 6746 70TM i9 "2 ._ Ra_t ma SRbe Usr. of Totil fFO tlC 0.1) 1. 1WD 7.4 10.6 11.1 18.8 1.6 21.7 IS.? 14.0 1.8 18.0 17.2 1. 16.8 2. 3S 7.1 12.8 11.8 10.0 0.8 6.6 8.8 4.4 *.8 3.8 8. 8.2 2.2 8. .US 14.8 U.S 0.4 U.S 11.8 10.8 10.0 16.1 16.8 2.8 Dm.6 91.8 66.7 4. ULTSLAT14M 66.7 86.4 66.1 66.0 81.6 7.1 10.8 30.1 1.9 .?4.7 66.6 86.9 84.6 sr. .9. Deb Or (S.14C.1) 1. US 7.2 11.8 14.1 17.2 10.7 19.0 14. 18.8 16.8 17.0 We. 10.4 91.4 2. US 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.e 0.6 0.6 O. 0.? 0. 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 S. 3ID0 7.0 18.8 18.1 U0.1 m.6 10.8 18.0 16.1 17.0 17.7 19.8 l.0 SS.0 4. WATLAIWAL 4.9 *.6 6.8 16.0 2.6 81.0 94.4 SS.1 66.8 66.4 61.1 18.0 66.6 Oebt t to Im/Immis 0.0 1.1 1.7 2.6 8.9 4.7 4.8 *.8 8. 6.0 8.8 7.2 7.1 F. _A-te-E t Rats (a) 1. Sblte a SblitDyar. U 1Us.7 62.7 60.1 112.8 1U.2 1U.8 2S..1 2U.8 Dm8.1 S.0 7.r0.o 1n.e 249.2 1. mm Darastee Privt. 0.6 10.0 10.0 27.8 24.2 1. 16.8 18.0 1.4 1.0 91.0 0.0 11.9 8. TWotl Les@ Tom 12.4 81.7 W.o 38.? M.4 seo. 11.4 12.1 26.8 a8.6 26.1 267.0 =S.I 4. DIr Credit/laparta 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 7.1 7.1 8.1 1.6 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 S. _hert-Torm Dabtlart 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. LT*D~ SoWjast 1.2 81.7 0.0 1.7 14.4 .6 S. 17.2 806.6 8.6 1A.1 667.8 13.1 0. ID00041P littos 1. puAle & lIl.l- Dea. LT 17.8 6.9 10.0 18.9 16.2 80.2 0.6 46.8 46.1 80.0 40.2 46.0 44.9 2. 1162m amI PrIvate 2.4 6.8 4.8 4.6 8.0 8.8 1.0 1.7 2.6 8.1 8.7 4.7 6.1 S. Total Lobe Tem 26.7 17.1 U.S S.8 26.1 86.6 66.4 46.0 66.0 8S.1 6.0 8.3 81.0 4. I CredItWP 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 S. shert-ers Debt/wP 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6. LTUD4 IT m8.8 27.2 11.8 93.8 1.1 84.4 40.6 47.1 1.6 8.8 68.0 8.8 6t0.9 cm ep) 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.4 1.8 S.1 s.0 7.4 NI. Oebt Svl/Arts (a) a. fbtI A Pab.Dear.LT beF.Rteeb 10.2 7.0 10.? 14.0 18.0 10.0 17.0 80.0 81.6 80.6 O.0 16.4 se.0 lb. PAIsI A PAI.Qvw.X ati _asch 10.2 7.9 10.7 14.9 1.0 0.8 1. 17.8 66.4 U4.4 84.1 J.7 *S.8 9. Prlvata Nm-Gamr. LT 2.0 U14.8 1. 1.2 14.6 22.6 6.0 6.4 4.0 s.7 4.2 8.1 9.0 go. Tor LT debt bef. Reads. 11.6 22.2 6.7? 8S.1 61.8 86.6 86.7 8?7.8 86.8 84.8 6.1 84.8 80.9 lb. Totl LT deb S. bs=*. 12.0 66.1 61.7 82.1 82.8 S .4 66.4 Ss.7 s1.1 38.0 #6.0 41.6 42.4 4. Dr' . 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.8 2.2 8.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 S. Mnterest cly en V Dabt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Go. Total (L:TtT tab.) d.re. 18.9 66.1 10.7 JS.1 .5 66.1 87.1 7.0 66.0 7.6 64.7 84.5 6.9 lb. Totl (.T+3U4 tlab.) ft.r_s 138. 6.1 10.7 1.1 s2.8 st1.7 22.6 24.2 26.4 41.8 40.0 41.9 42.4 Q(MIs00 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.0 4.5 t. te I arde IRatIs (ati. Reedh.) 1. Total I 9. T.tal ats ) _ _sraad t_om I _serts * _b leVas (i sll of us 14 1111 1 211M1634gm640 Sg Dm 2n1 gm a6 850 9- t 0- I- g I 0t- n1 m- 9 as- Ot O 0 11- ("X-' -)& b% *51 sat sa *1 . usuI so w as so e u m Sw at %4 99 OS LO C * dv v.e 0 0Pt 01 P"no 5u.m1o0 w o ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Os os n xo s 0 0 0 � 0 0 U sO U � w Ot ' t a AB to Go t tG o 26 us GM m m 111 m At soIt ftl- * I t Q~~~~~u et aus" a: oW ow mit oX<ttw C 'Ot *1 Ot at 01 W aOt at Ot Ot Os of Ot os OemOewat1a O O OU O O OS Of OU OS O O OS OS WUUUi- t Al a As a so n so so so 0 o o o04111 o X* At a AS At At t0 At It 01 0 0 W UOOt4jW 0 G- -n 5 u- t _ o oc *ew %MN st- ~I t9 As au nn a w * Om" 0 0 0 0 0 t- tt- t- It- 0 Ot- E A 1T U -1 - a- A - a- Oll- tt- - tt - 1O- US1 *A- in VW -uiaeuti aimes * 0 o a Ts a ut Om 451 VW u on U of U.Iamug 9- 0- 41-- si Vl- OS- - l - fu1- 011- n1- U- Go- f4u- "No st.gWj *4 Oa at Go a 4 d@9190 Ogiginq 0 0 0 10- 9 - n - 0- 0 0- "P#- 9. Ml aS- *tu6l 9- 0- - It- - i It- Ag- M.- W- n- VW- SW- bo- I. i ttl mDaa_ 5a Ml4 #8 OlS o M 90 M U oP ES oS t lt*S 1 on on3 1us as5 Oa 6 9.1 ES11 MS MS M0 E vw WL so *ShgpSuof m$* at at at at at a1 I 11 � Its aL t se OS as oS 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 de * P P 9 0 ni n # OS U * 0 0 0 0 a111 m- _ * U at a OS to a 02 a P P P 0 e * M s wt on 4 opt en I" I" A" Me WI U se a oo-"vvt �01 4*1 E 11 1 U 011 t0 U � X9" tIII S R 54 ES 1-gqq A" Mt 9 s WIS on t 9 o a as U M 9 n01 J toS MO on �45 In on *6 *96I AG6 *6 *16 lb Off WIMESh Il,lb Om onS MS EM ES M " G u Om ES we 9 " S 41 MP S 95 M* v q P-eSa U4 0 As a 039 4 al se to nS a a U Os "dies" _ot-U #1 Sl 900 *9uES 59 019 ml Om 9 ES Es " s "ES 544 ' 51 on M Mt En 0n OPt a" an gas UO E ES E JO Its an IUS M v"0 ES A" "A 01 "M ES ES LS 06 US ANO on 9 M05 lO'S - - - - O61 A6 /t ObM /S "MT4011UM - - - - - - UM - -N* - - --OM lm a urn/is: ssea qe/ow /mi s/io: s/m esowlas/w: s/io: s/o: O/Us aSmi /Ls: s/ss 505 o/a -49 - AMIU 2 P1e 1 of 2 1988 SOCIAL INDICATOR DATA SHEET CAMEROON sf ertco 4 MO 0e"I Iepwit Lowr aid U3Ps S' INS 9175 -Retinmee wce oe *Ota tW @PWO (tIO sq ur) 475.4 475.4 471.4 �gPicIltur 1 tX of total) 30.7 30.5 32.1 or PoR CAPITA (airiwit US$1 130 310 100 730 2.510 PPtLATIO AND VtTAL STATISTICS Total ceoulatton (thiO) 5.825 7.429 10.927 Uraw DDoo. (S of totaI) 17 2? 4 38 64 Population growt rate%): Total *a., :.2 2.5 2.0 urtan 7.2 7.5 4.2 3.2 Life xwOCt. at slrth tyrs) 40 5a so 59 67 Population proJections: Po. In 2000 (thaw) 16.?02 Stationary ao. (thaw )0.7 Population density Per SQ km of agriewltural lanG 40 s 0s 404 7t7 p. Struetur (): -14 yEs 4 1 1 44 42 30 IS." yr. is 1s s0 Os $9 esand bOovo 4 4 4 3 1 Crde birth rate (pow thou) 40 4? 40 31 2? Crue dath rate (pe thu) t0 17 13 10 0 Total fertility at, 1.3 0.3 0.5 4.7 2.1 infant w*t. rate (0e thou) t43 114 s . i 43 Child eath te pt ear thw) 34 23 10 11 Family plamuing: oseeors. aunmwl (tlta) .. 0 Users ( of married woma) 3 3 VO. HIALit AM NUTEITIO Inoex of, foo prouat ion per capita (1579-8i a 100) l 1654 I0e 101 Per caita Susly of: caleries (oer ay) 3.043 2.320 2.000 2.907 2.104 Proteins (9rms pep day) 4so 40 s' Po. per phycan (thou) 20.7 13.7 .. 71.3 Po. pee tnwr. (tou) 5.0 13.? .. 0.5 Pop. pr hoita (thou) .. 0.4 .. . Access to "a water M of population): Total .. 20 36 Urean .. 31 4. Rural .. 22 30 Population Growth Infant Mortalty Primtary School EnrWlment ot oout . * eueltoo*_ M na u alp -.o p -50- AhUl 2 Pase 2 of 2 1988 SOCIAL INDICATOR DATA SHEET CAMERCON Rf erece aros (not) Recat Lower eta Ups.* at* 1355 1575 Estimate nancme f4 LASO FORCE Total Laser force (tlou) 2.$39 3.345 4.039 Fpanls ) 33 37 34 29 30 Aicultu ) 7 O 5 30 inwutry (2) * 7 6 15 30 Partiecpation rate (X): Total *7 d4 40 37 37 fmle 59 57 53 5t 51 Fe-le 25 23 27 23 23 Age _epwny (2 * 90.6 a3. I ".7 62.7 71.$ Average also0 of huseho 10: Total .. S Urban .. 5 Rural .. 5 Percentage of OwellIngo with *lec�ticity: Total .. 6 trban .. 19 R.ural .. I anrol iment rates: Primary: Total 94 97 10T 104 105 Wal 114 10t 11 109 106 rFml is S? 97l 99 102 Seco.Wery: Total 5 Is 23 42 S7 -ale a 17 29 47 57 eple, 6 1 36 5 Pupil-Teachei ratio: Primar-y 47 11 51 31 t sewa .. 20 36 22 I6 Pupils reaing g (a ) - 13 57 72 65 -ie. mUTgOV. M POVERIT lumrgV CenWt iOn pVW cap. (kg of oil Wvalent) .. 0 14 1 1.212 Percentage of private I recevao by: Highest 10% of t efa. .. Highest 20S Lowet 20.. Lowest 40% got. absolute poverty irnom level (Us$ per capita): Urban .. 238 Ra ab .. 105.. Lst. pop. below o o poverty tneoe levl tX Urban .. 1, Rural .. 40 Passener ae/thi pop. 3.0 7.2 Newspape irculation (per thousand population) 3.1 3.4 3.5 43.5 106.2 'EcSt Augut 1986 _NM .owwumm mule.. 0co u gs _ u e e a _. _ 1__ m "Oamy a -Mr Vlmmas U ams tIPS m s a" .M SW me" meN ewm sea.. m. sa _tOSS - 51 - ANNEX III Page 1 of 3 REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT LOAN Supplementary Loan Data Sheet Section It Timetable of Key Events (a) Date of first presentation to Bank June 1988 (b) Appraisal mission July 1988 (c) Post-appraisal mission I November 1988 (d) Post-appraisal mission II February/March 1989 te) Completion of Negotiations May 1989 (f) Planned date of effectiveness July 1989 Section Ilt Special Bank Implementation Action none Section III: Special conditions Rffectiveness Conditions (a) Import license requirements for goods which are not subject to quantitative import restrictions have been eliminated; (b) Quantitative import restrictions for a first group of goods determined in agreement with the Bank have been removed; (c) Price controls (Ohomoloaation pr6alableO) for goods and services have been eliminated except for a limited number of basic goods and services and certain goods remaining subject to quantitative import restrictions, as detersuined in agreement with the Bank; and (d) The system for setting comercial margins for goods and services which are no longer subject to quantitative import restrictions or price controls have been removed. Disbursement of the Second Tranche of US$50 million equivalent, not earlier than March 31, 1990, would be dependent on satisfactory progress in carrying out the Structural Adjustment Program and in particular on the following measures being taken in a manner satisfactory to the Banks (a) The Borrower has adopted its 'Loi des Finances' 198911990 reflecting the public investment program, the levels of non-wage recurrent expenditures for the health, education and agriculture sectors and for road maintenance, and the levels of resources allocated to the restructuring of the banking and public enterprise sectors, as determined in agreement with the Bank. - 52 - ANNEX III Page 2 of 3 (b) Progress has been achieved in the establishment and functioning of a system to program and monitor the tolling four-year public investment program. (c) Progress has been achieved on measures to reform the public enterprise (PR) sector, including: (i) the signature of performance contracts between the Borrower and key PEs, namely SODECAO, HEVECAM, ONCPB, SONEL, SNEC, SOCMPALM and Office Cerealier; and (ii) the completion of negctiations of performance contracts between the Borrower and the following PEs: CAMAIR, REGIFERCAM, and SODECOTON. (d) Action plans have been adopted to liquidate CAMBANK, BCD and FONADER and to restructure key commercial banks, including SCB. (e) For the primary export crops, (i) floor producer prices for coffee, cotton and cocoa and price schedules ("bar6mes') for coffee and cocoa, for the crop season 1989-1990, have been published at a level consistent with minimizing the risk of requiring State support; and (ii) a system for sharing residual marketing surpluses (export receipts, less producer prices and marketing margins) has been established. Cf) Progress has been achieved in the implementation of measures to liberalize trade and prices and to improve the incentive framework for production and export, includings (i) the removal of quantitative import restrictions (together with import license requirements) for a second group of goods; (ii) the elimination of price controls ("homologation prealable) and of the system for setting commercial margins for a second group of goods; (iii) the revision of Law No. 80/25 portant orientation de l'activitd commerciale permitting free access to trade at all stages and eliminating monopoly privileges; (iv) the promlgation of a revised Investment Code; and (v) the completion of a study on export incentives. (g) The Borrower has taken all steps within its powers, both in internally and externally, to provide adequate funding for the execution of the Program. Disbursement of the Third Tranche of US$50 million equivalent, not earlier than December 31, 1990, would be dependent on continued satisfactory progress in carrying out the Structural Adjustment Program and in particular on the following measures being taken in a manner satisfactory to the Bank: (a) The Borrower has adopted its "Loi de Finances' 1990-1991 reflecting the public investment program, the levels of non-wage recurrent expenditures for the health, education and agriculture sectors and for road maintenance, and the levels of resources allocated to the restructuring of the banking and public enterprise sectors, as determined in agreement with the Bank. - 53 - ANNEX III Page 3 of 3 (b) For the civil services (i) the system of personnel benefits and allowances (family, housing and travel allowances) has been revised; (ii) decisions have been taken on organizational and personnel structure plans for the ministries responsible for finance, planning, civil service and industry and commerce; and (iii) studies on organizational and personnel structure plans for three other ministries have started. (c) Further progress has been achieved on measures to reform the public enterprise (PE) sector, including the signature of performance contracts between the Borrower and selected PEs, i.e., CAMAIR, MAETUR, MAGZI, REGIFERCAM, SODECOTON, CDC. SOTUC, CRTY and MIDENO, and action plans for other PEs determined in agreement with the Bank have been prepared. (d) Progress has been achieved in the restructuring of the banking sector, including: (i) the implemeatation of the action plans to liquidate CAMBANR, BCD and FONADER and to restructure SCB; (ii) the adoption of an action plan to restructure SNI; and (iii) the adoption of an action plan to restructure or liquidate BPPBC. (e) The role of the National Produce Marketing Board has been redefined in order to permit the private sector to assume progressively responsibilities for internal and external marketing of export crops. (f) The forestry tax regime has been modified and a revised Forestry Code has been promulgated to promote rational exploitation and long-term conservation of forestry resources. (g) Further progress has been achieved in the implementation of measures to liberalize trade and prices and improve the incentive framework for production and export, including: (i) the removal of remaining quantitative import restrictions (together with import license requirements), except for a limited number of strategic goods to be determined in agreement with the Bank following the results of a complementary study on said goods; (ii) the eliminations of price controls ('homologation prdalable*) and of the system for setting commercial margins for a third group of goods; and (iii) the promulgation of a revised labor Code reducing regulatory constraints resulting in labor maket rigidity. (h) The Borrower has taken all steps, within its powers, both internally and externally, to provide adequate funding for the execution of the Program. - 54 - Annex IV STATUS OF BANK ROUP OPERTIONS IN CAMEROON S VMMY STATEMENT OF LOANS AND CREDITS AS OF MAROC 29 1989 Amount In USS millon (le1 cancelltitons) Loan or Fiscal Undis- Closing Credit No. Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA bured DOat Credits 26 Creits close 248.22 C11lO0-CAM 1901 Camroon Technical Cooperatlon 10.00 .O 8 12/81^/6(R) Total number Credit a 1 10.00 .06 Loons 28 Loans closed) 846.24 L20920-CAM 1982 Camroon Foreetry 7.00 1.95 12/81/86(3) 21000-CM 1982 Camroon Oil Palm/Rubber Cons 60.80 16590 06/80/88 121800-CAM 1982 Cmeroon Road. V 70.00 06/80/89(R) -22500-CAM 1983 Cmeroon Port III 22.50 10.21 06/30/8) 24060-CAM 1904 Cameroon Western Province ROP 21.50 18.41 12/81/90 L24850-CAM 1985 Cameroon Hev em Rubber 8.80 2.60 06/80/00 126670-CAM 1985 Cuaaroom FSAR SI 25.50 21.76 12/81/01 L25840-CAN 1985 Cs3eroon Roads VI 126.00 99.09 06/80/91 126880-CAM 19086 Cameroom Educ. A Voc. Train. 80.10 24.71 06/80/98 L30160-CAM 1987 Cameroon Roads VI 20.00 08/80/9 L27660-CAM 1987 Causroon Agric. Resarch 17.80 16.66 06/80/63 129120-CAM 1988 Cvaroom Cocoa Rehab 108.00 108.00 21/81196 129900-CAM.1989 Comeroom Urban II 146.00 146.00 06/80/94 LU0140-CAU*1989 Cameroom Livestock Sector DeWv. 84.60 84.60 06/80/95 TOTAL number loans - 14 682.10 492.95 TOTAL ** 1,028.84 268.22 of which repaid 180.81 18.49 TOTAL hold by Bank A IDA *UE.U 1U7.1 Amount Sold 13.46 Of which repaid 8.45 TOTAL undisbursed 493.86 Notes: * Not yet effective so Total Approved, Repyments, and Outstanding balance represet both active and inactive Lesm (R) Indicates form I ly revtIsd Closi ng Date. The Signing, Effective and Closing dates ore based upon Loan Department official data - 55 - ANNA V RXPMBLIC OF CAMEROON PEACE - t - ATHE STATEMENT OF DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY YAOMNE, MAY 1989 - 56 - ANNEX V TAM OF CONTENTS Pa PART ONE s PRESENT SITUATION AND PROSPECTS 1 A. EXISTENCE OF THE CRISIS 1 a. Origin of the crisis 1 b. Impact of the crisis 2 i) Impact on macroeconomic aggregates 2 ii) Impact on the balance of payments 2 iii) Impact on public finances 3 iv) Impact on the monetary and banking situation 3 B. SECTORAL ANALYSIS 4 a. Rural Development 4 i) Agriculture 4 ii) Livestock and fisheries 5 iii) Forestry 5 b. Trade and Industry 6 c. Water and Sanitation, Power and Mining 7 i) Water and Sanitation 7 ii) Electricity 7 iii) Oil sector 8 d. Infrastructure and Services 8 C. MACROECONOMIC PROSPECTS 9 a. Growth prospects 9 b. Investment prospects 9 c. Balance of payments 10 d. External borrowing strategy 11 PART TWOs STABILIZATION, ADJUSTMENT, AND ECONOMIC 13 RECOVERY STRATEGY Fundamental principles 13 Major components of the program 13 A. STABILIZATION OF PUBLIC FINANCES 14 a. Controlling Government expenditure 14 b. Restructuring of budgetary expenditure 16 c. Rationalization of the choice of public 16 investment projects - 57 - ANNEX V d. Restructuring and increase of revenue 17 e. Settlement of the Government's domestic arrears 19 B. RATIONALIZATION OF THE MANAGEMENT OF THE PUBLIC AND 19 PARAPUBLIC SECTOR a. Reform of the Civil Service 19 b. Rehabilitation of public enterprises 21 i) Basic principles 21 ii) Measures taken 23 iii) Monitoring the implementation of the 24 rehabilitation measures iv) Financial and technical rehabilitation 25 of public enterprises C. REHABILITATION OF THE BANKING AND FINANCIAL SECTOR 26 D. RECOVERY OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 29 a. Rural Development 29 i) Food security 29 ii) Recovery and diversification of agricultural 30 expotts iii) Pricing and marketing policies for 30 agricultural products iv) Recovery of the forestry sector 32 v) Recovery of the livestock and fisheries 33 sector vi) Financing the rural sector 35 b. Trade and Industry 35 i) Industrial strategy 36 ii) Liberalization of trade and prices 37 iii) Rationalization of fiscal incentives 38 iv) Reform of the institutional framework 38 c. Water, Power and Mining 39 i) Water and Sanitation 39 ii) Power 39 iii) Mining 40 d. Communications, transport, town-planning and 40 housing infrastructure i) Roads 41 ii) Railway 41 -58- ANNE V iii) Sea 41 iv) Air 42 v) Post and Telecommunications 42 vi) Urban planning and housing 42 vii) Urban and Inter-city transport 43 viii) Tourism 43 e. Human Resources 43 i) Educationltraining 44 ii) Health 44 E. INTEGRATON OF THE SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF ADJUSTIENT 44 F. MONITORING OF THE STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM 46 a. The Interministerial Supervisory Council 46 b. The Technical Committee for the preparation and 47 follow-up of the Structural Adjustment Program c. Financial and logistical support 47 CONCLUSION 48 -59- ANNEX V This STATEMENT OF DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY presents an outline of the critical situation of the Cameroonian economy and shows Government efforts to preserve achievements of the past and to encourage the balanced development of the country in the future. - 60 - ANNEX V PART (IE PRESENT SITUATION AND PROSPECTS The present situation is characterized by an acute economic crisis, offering bleak economic prospects in the short and medium term in the absence of an adjustment policy. A. ENISTENCE OF THE CRISIS Between 1980/81 and 1985186, the Cameroonian economy recorded a high growth rate (nearly 8Z in real terms) due mainly to the development of the oil sector. This performance resulted from high annual growth rates in investment (72), exports (16?) and consumption (3.3?). This trend followed a period of intense development efforts during which the country's credibility and credit-worthiness abroad were maintained while the economic indicators were nearly all favourable, attesting to sustained development. However, since 1986187, the economy has contracted considerably (2.8? in 1986187 and 8.6? in 1987188 in real terms) and progre- tward improving the welfare of the population and more effectively meeting _.d basic needs has been compromised. This decline is likely to persist during the current year. a. Orisin of the crisis The economic crisis which the country has been experiencing Rince 1985186 has completely reversed the positive trends registered -a.xtil then. This crisis is due essentially to the fall, on the world market, of the prices of our major exports (oil, coffee and cocoa), generating a decline in our terms of trade of nearly 45Z over the last three years. Coupled with the depreciation of nearly 40? of the US dollar vis-&-vis the CPA franc, the currency in which our main export products are denominated, this led to a sharp fall in the value of exported goods and services with adverse repercussions on Goverment revenues and households and enterprise earnings. On the domestic front, the deficits recorded by public and para- public enterprises on account of their poor performance were financed through resort to substantial financial assistance from public zesources, comprisings i) various subsidies; ii) additional contribution to capital through the investment budget; iii) loan guarantees and assumption of debt service obligations by the Government. - 61- ANNEX V Additionally, the inadequacy and limitations of certain policies that were implemented until that time tended to aggravate the adverse effects of the above factors on all sectors of the economy. b. ItmPact of the crisis i) Impact on macroeconomic aggregates As a result of the poor performances of the oil, building and public works sectors, gross domestic product in 1987/88 fell by more than 112 in real terms from its level in 1985/86. This led to a sharp contraction in all sectors of the economy excluding agriculture (+ 4X). Total investment decreased by 38Z over the last two years (26Z for private investments as against 522 for public investments) from 18.32 of the GDP in 1985/86 to 13.62 in 1987/88. Total consumption, on the other hand, fell by 92 over the same period (private consumptiont 82 and public consumption: 112). This fall in domestic demand led to a 232 decline in the volume of imports. The general decline in economic activity also characterized the 1988189 financial year. Based on preliminary macroeconomic data, GDP is expected to fall by close to 52 in 1988/89, due mainly to the projected sharp drop in industriil production as a result of the continued reduction in investment expenditure and oil production. The sharp reduction in public investment (422) and consumption (72) expenditures, consistent with strict budgetary discipline and control, as well as the fall in private expenditure resulting from the decrease in economic activities will contribute to a drop of close to 92 in overall domestic demand. The reduction in aggregate demand is expected to result in a decrease of about 162 in imports while the volume of exports is also projected to fall short of its 1987/88 level. ii) ImDact on the balance of payments Despite the fall in imports, the sharp drop in export earnings, due to the deterioration of the terms of trade, the depreciation of the US dollar and the fall in the volume of oil exports, led to a sha.-p decline in the trade surplus from 201 billion CFA francs in 1985/86 to only 45 billion in 1987/88. At the same time, the deficit on service-related transactions (260 billion CFA francs in 1987/88 as against 411 billion in 1985/86) remains substantial as a result of the repatriation of company profits that were not re-invested, and the payment of interest on external debts and other returns on capital. Also, deficits resulting from transfer operations became increasingly important (23 billion CPA francs in 1985/86, 40 billion in 1986/87 and 43 billion in 1987/88) due mostly to the transfer by expatriates of savings from their salaries. - 62 - ANNEX V The above situation led to a continuous and considerable current account deficit (232 billion CFA francs in 1985186, 373 billion in 1986187 and 257 billion in 1987188). Thus, during the last three years, the current account balance registered an average deficit of 7.42 of GDP as against a surplus of 4t of GDP in 1984185. Lastly, the combination of heavy reimbursements of public and private loans and the reduction in new loans and foreign investments account for the pronounced decline in the capital account surplus which fell from 113 billion CFA francs in 1984/85 to 68 billion in 1987188 after reaching a minimum of 14,000 million in 1985186. In the face of this critical situation, which led to a substantial deficit in the overall balance of 218 billion CFA francs in 1986187 and 94 billion in 1987188, the monetary authorities had to draw down on foreign reserves and increase their external liabilities. iii) Impact on public finances The decline in economic activities in general and the shortfall in oil revenues in particular led to a drop in budgetary revenues of 16S in 1986187 and 18S in 1987188. This resulted in an unprecedented budget deficit of 508 billion CFA francs (11.82 of GDP) in 1986/87, which was reduced to 214 billion (6.52 of GDP) in 1987/88 through substantial cuts in public recurrent and investment expenditure. These deficits were financed in large part through a significant accumulation of domestic arrears (250 billion CFA francs in 1986/87 and 90 billion in 1987/88), greater reliance on drawings from the Central Bank and Treasury correspondents, and an increase in the postal and hospital debts by 40 billion CFA francs. iv) Imact on the monetary and banking situation The deterioration of the financial situation of 150 public enterprises, in spite of the substantial subsidies granted to ensure their survival, necessitated sizeable withdrawals from their deposits in local banks. At the same time, financial difficulties of the Government led to a substantial decline in foreign reserves. These two factors compounded the ban;ing system's liquidity crisis. This situation resulted in a decrease of about 12? in the money supply between June 1986 and June 1988 in spite of an 82 increase in credits to the economy (1,019 billion CFA francs on 30 June 1988 as against 943 billion on 30 June 1986), and a decline of net foreign assets by 164,000 million in two years - 63 - ANNEX V (falling from 128 billion CFA francs in June 1986 to - 36 billion in June 1988). In addition to the withdrawal of public sector deposits, the liquidity of the banking system was aggravated by: i) massive transfers by foreign enterprises operating in the country i$) the under-capitalization of banks and the increasing amount of bad debts (about 150 billion CFA francs) iii) the absence of an appropriate mechanism for recycling the savings generated by non-bank financial institutions through the domestic banking system. B. SECTORAL ANALYSIS The economic crisis has affected the various sectors in different ways and since, on the whole, the sectors operated without interaction, they felt the effects of the crisis individually. If adjustment and economic recovery measures are not implemented, this situation could lead to further stagnation, decline of activities and poor economic performance. a. Rural Develooment ') Aariculture Cameroon is endowed with a variety of natural resources, some of which are unique. These resources are subjected to enormous pressure and their gradual deterioration is characterized, in particular, by the encroachment of the desert in the North, the erosion and the dwindling of forest cover in the West, and the degradation of the fauna and flora of the dense tropical forests of the Centre and South. The protection of these resources must become a priority in future development efforts. The agricultural sector was and remains the priority sector of our development strategy. Agriculture ensures the country's food self-sufficiency and the livelihood for nearly 751 of the working population. The sector also accounts for about 452 of foreign exchange earnings and 152 of budgetary revenues. Moreover, it is the economic activity with the greatest influence over the other sectors. Cameroon's agriculture enjoys the advantages of a fertile soil and a diversity of climate and crops. In spite of these advantages, agricultural production is subject to serious constraints due to the decline in world prices for the country's - 64 - ANNEX V major commodities and the depreciation of the currency in which these exports are denomintated. The aging of plantations and farmers themselves as well as the massive rural-urban migration are among the major problems facing this sector. The important challenges in this sector in the short term remain the maintenance and improvement of the productive potential, including the efficiency of the marketing system for the major agricultural products. ii) Livestock and Fisheries In the livestock and fisheries sub-sector, the flooding of the market with fraudulently imported frozen products sold at very low prices has seriously discouraged local initiatives. This external factor, however, has only aggravated the already existing problems such as the inadequacy of animal protection facilities (vaccines and veterinary infrastructure), lack of advisory services for livestock farmers, the scarcity of financial resources and poor knowledge of this sub-sector. iii) Forestry The present situation is characterized by the availability of substantial forestry resources, includings - 20 million ha of forest; - 300 available species, less than 15 of which are currently being exploited; - large quantities of high grade species found mostly in the remote regions of the South and the East. This potential is not, however, being exploited effectively, thereby limiting the sub-sector's contribution to economic development. The constraints facing the sector include: - the absence of communications infrastructure in the South- East and East of the country; - the inadequacy of the capital available to exploiters, especially Cameroonians; - inadequate technical and managerial know-how resulting in considerable waste; - lack of standardization for processed timber; - the existence of a rigid price system distorting market signals; - 65 - ANNEX V - the absence of dynamic promotion for secondary species and wood transformation facilities; - the limited size of the local market, making timber- processing an unprofitable venture. b. Trade and Industry An analysis of the performance of the industrial sector reveals that the relative stability of this secondary sector was due mainly to the substantial contribution of the oil sector. Despite the substantial domestic demand generated by the oil sector, the elaborate system of tariff and non-tariff protection (quantitative restrictions, very high import duties, the Investment Code, price control, etc.) did not produce favourable results for industrial sector performance. On the contrary, the system led to very high costs and prices to the detriment of competitiveness, Government revenues and the consumer. The manufacturing sector remained restricted to the domestic market and handicapped with respect to exports. ffore specifically, the strategy based on giving priority to import substitution activities had only limited success because of: i) the small size of the Cameroonian market and ii) a highly protective system with uneven levels of protection as between enterprises, which discouraged exports and made the import of similar products very attractive. The system of incentives causes numerous distortions: - quantitative import restrictions prevented competition in price or quality. The restrictions contributed to increased delays in supplies and led to increased gains from the scarcity of products, thus resulting in very high prices for the consumer; - high import tariffs led to fiscal erosion which was contrary to the initial objectives of protection. In addition, the rate differential between substitutes or among products processed to varying degrees did not allow for spontaneous, competitive development of productive activities; - the Investment Code, which requires long procedures and is based on complex criteria, encouraged capital-intensive investments ill-suited to the Cameroonian context where jobs could be generated through small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs). Exemption from payment of duty on imported goods discouraged local production of intermediate products thus makinl, any integration difficQlt; - price regulation proved fairly rigid, thus reducing the need for enterprises to adjust to market conditions in cost and quality. - 66 - ANNEX V The mechanism of fixed profit margins based on the cost price of the product (local or imported) tended to give preference to commerce over industry and contributed to inflation and downward price rigidities; - substantial variations in indirect taxation depending on the nature, origin and destination of products led to considerable distortions in competition; - the proliferation of special, tailor-made benefits made possible by the above instruments contributed to an inefficient allocation of resources among sectors and resulted in a significant loss of tax revenue; - furthermore, the cost of labor in the industrial sector which followed salary increases granted in the public sector now represents a major obstacle to the competitiveness of Cameroon's industrial activities; - lastly, certain institutional and regulatory constraints weigh heavily on the activities of enterprises, in particular due to the absence of a company code, labour legislation, means of financing and export facilities. c. Water, Power and Minina Cameroon has substantial mineral and energy resources which are yet unexploited, except for oil and water. I) Water and Sanitation In the water and sanitation sector, the Government has made considerable efforts in the rural areas. In the urban centres, the numerous water supply projects undertaken are being operated by the National Water Corporation (SNEC). But because of the build-up of internal payment arrears (State, local councils, private individuals), SNEC is experiencing some structural financial difficulties; the study conducted with a view to its rehabilitation has been completed. ii) Electricity The National Electricity Corporation (SONEL) is experiencing structural financial problems because of the build- up of internal payment arrears (State, local councils, and private individuals), the unreliability of its information and management system (customer management in particular) and the imbalance between the objectives assigned to the enterprise and the means placed at its disposal particularly through an inadequate tariff structure. The broad outline of its restructuring has been established. - 67- ANNEX V iii) Oil sector The steep decline in operating revenues, caused by the fall of oil prices on the world market and the drop in the value of the U.S. dollar, has slowed down activities considerably. Consequently, the mining area was reduced by 55 S between 1980 and 1986; i.e. from 40,000 km2 to 18,000 km2. During the same period, the number of prospecting permits fell from 17 to 14 and only three operators are currently prospecting. Investment in prospecting declined from 30 billion CFAF in 1980 to less than 9 billion CFAF in 1985 and since then no new investment has been made. The inadequacy of the incentives provided for petroleum exploration accounts for the decline in such investments. d. Infrastructure and Services Despite considerable Government efforts to develop communication and urban infrastructure, the dominant trends show certain weaknesses in these sectors; the root causes of the situation are as followst - inadequate coordination of investments; - maintenance problems; - the multiplicity of actors involved in the same operation; - the absence of a contract which clearly stipulates the relations between the Government and parastatals of the sector; - failure to control project costs; and lastly, - the overstaffing of public enterprises. The improvement of infrastructure remains a constant preoccupation of the Government since it conditions all development efforts; this especially applies to roads in the rural areas. However, the construction and improvement of such roads is hampered by their high investment costs, their failure to withstand local conditions and by the difficulties encountered in maintaining them. As concerns services, action should be envisaged rapidly to reverse the deterioration in quality and quantity which has characterized this sector since 1986/87. - 68 - ANNEX V C. MACRO-ECONOMC PROSPECTS a. Growth Prosoects For the past few years, oil production has been an important factor in the development of the national economy. This sector accounted, on the average, for nearly 152 of GDP and 35Z of export earnings. The projected annual drop in oil production of about 102 during the next few years constitutes a serious impediment to economic growth and balance of payments equilibrium. This decline in production will correspond to an annual loss of about 12 in real GDP and a cumulative loss of export earnings from oil of about 300 billion CFAF at constant prices by 1995. This prospect highlights the need to develop new exports and to institute appropriate structural measures for the agricultural, mining and industrial sectors. To this end, the Government intends to reorient the country's development strategy towards export promotion. In order to do so, it will be necessary to restore agricultural productivity and to provide a competitive environment conducive to private investment. In particular, the gradual liberalization of the economy and the revampire of the regulatory framework should bring about increased productivity and a reduction of costs and prices. Enhancing the competitiveness of the economy will also require improvements in labor prtductivity and particular attention to controlling labor costs, especially in the public sector. In the context of this new development strategy, the GDP growth rate could reach 32 per annum during the next five years. This increase would be principally attributable to agriculture (42 per annum) and to the manufacturing sector (62 per annum). With a slight improvement in the terms of trade, per capita income could increase by about 12 per annum. b. Investment DrosDects Faced with the expected stagnation of export earnings and the need to eliminate the financial bottlenecks which impede economic activities (Government arrears, banking sector rehabilitation), the Government will reduce its recurrent expenditures in order to be able to finance a minimum investment program and the cost of restructuring the public entreprise sector, while maintaining external borrowing at a sustainable level. In line with the new emphasis on private sector development, private investments will henceforth constitute the key determinants of growth and efficiency. Public authorities will limit their action to furnishing vital services and prov'ding the necessary infrastructure for increasing the absorptive capacity of the economy. - 69 - ANNEXV As part of this strategy and during the next four years, the Government intends to limit its capital expenditures to 200 billion CFAF per annum. This amount takes into account the minimum investment level necessary to revive economic activities, on the one hand, and the extraordinary amounts needed to clear Government arrears (450 billion CPAF in total, including 100 billion in external arrears) and to finance the Government's contribution to the financial restructuring of public enterprises and banks (provisionally estimated at 275 billion CFA francs). The stagnation of public investments (200 billion CFA francs per year) notwithstanding, the global volume of investments will increase gradually to reach by 1995 its 1987 level, that is, nearly 152 of the GDP after attaining 10.42 in 1989 and 11.72 in 1990, thanks to the upsurge of private initiative and the implementation of an investment program to rehabilitate public enterprises. c. Balance of Dayments In view of th. foreign exchange constraints which the Cameroonian economy vill have to face during the next decade, action will be centred on the promotion of exports while an effort will be made to reduce imports to levels that will enable the country to avoid excessive indebtedness. Policies in the agriculture sector will aim to increase the volume of non-traditional agricultural exports by 4 to 5 per annum while reducing food imports considerably, and to ensure an increased supply of inputs to local industries. Similarly, the manufacturing sector will have to produce not only for the domestic market but especially for export. Consequently, an annual increase of 42 is expected in the export of manufactured products. Nevertheless, with rapidly increasing interest payments on external debt, the negative balance for services and transfers will lead to a deficit in the current account of the balance of payments of about 125 to 140 billion CFA francs annually until 1992, representing on the average 3.52 of GDP. After debt amortization and a build-up of reserves, the country's gross external financing needs will increase to about 300 billion CFA francs annually until 1992. - 70 - ANNEX V TAJLE 1 Balance of payments 1988/89-1991192 (billions of CFAF) 88/89 89190 90/91 91/92 Trade balance 90 66 99 195 Services and net transfers -215 -203 -234 -234 (including interest) (68) (71) (82) (94) Current account -125 -137 -133 -138 Amortization 143 133 127 120 Other Capital Payments 33 15 15 15 Increase in reserves 1 21 20 19 Cross Capital Requirements 302 306 295 292 In spite of a substantial inflow of direct private external investments, the coverage of most of these needs (to the tune of 90X) will require gross borrowing from abroad of about 1,065 billion CFAF, including one-third of this amount in the form of structural adjustment loans. In the event that the funds mobilized fall start of the above amount, the Government could initiate appropriate negotiations to restructure its external debt. The contracting of these loans will lead to a significant but tolerable increase in the stock of public debt which will represent nearly 36.2Z of GDP in 1992 while the ratio of public debt service to exports will increase from the present 17? to about 28Z in 1992. This radically new situation as compared to previous years when debt service represented only 10? of exports calls for an extremely prudent external debt policy. d. External borrowina strateRm In the years ahead, Cameroon will have to face relatively substantial external financing needs which will step up its indebtedness ratios. It is therefore necessary to outline the principles of an external debt strategy which will make it possible to minimize the debt servicing burden in the long term and limit risks related to the fluctuations of interest rates, export earnings and exchange rates. - 71 - ANNEXV As from 1989, Cameroon intends to make more extensive use of its borrowing capacity vis-a-vis bilateral and uultilateral sources to maintain a sound debt structure. The country will take advantage of its current easy access to money markets to borrow on concessional terms. In this context, the authorities will increasingly resort to project loans with favorable conditions to finance highly profitable economic projects; the Caisse Autonome d'Amortissement (CA) set up for this purpose will have an important role to play. As concerns new loans in particular, the country will try to negotiate loans with the longest possible maturities. Commitments and disbursements relating to public debt will be limited to a level such that the ratio of debt service due on public or publicly guaranteed debt to exports will not exceed 30S in the long term. Lastly, in order to limit the risks of exchange rate fluctuations on debt-servicing, Cameroon will strive as much as possible to borrow in the currencies of its exports. -72 - ANNEX V PART TWO STABILIZATIONL ADJUSMET AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY STRA6EGY Medium-term macro-economic projections indicate continuous deterioration in the country's economic situation if efforts are not deployed promptly toward stabilization and adjustments in costs and structures vith a view to ensuring a more efficient and competitive economic development. Given this urgent need, the Government has adopted a set of measures that has been implemented since 1987188. The purpose of the measures is, inter alia, tot - re-establish a positive growth rate in the medium term; - improve the most essential social indicators as well as the living conditions of Cameroonians. Fundamental Drinc iDles To ensure the success of such a strategy, three fundamental principles must underline the various components of the program, namely: - the gradual elimination of impediments to economic activity (competitive and efficient market mechanism); - the re-orientation of the role of the State to make it an intermediary which facilitates private sector operations and particularly SME's while minimizing its direct control over the production and distribution network; - reorientation of public services towards programs which improve the well-being and productivity of Cameroonians while taking into account the social dimensions of the adjustment. Maior comnonents of the Drosram The major components of the stabilization, adjustment and economic recovery program are: - stabilizing public finances in the medium term; - improving the programming, budgeting and monitoring of public investment programs taking into account recurrent expenditures and finarsing terms; - increasing productivity in the civil service; - rationalizing the management of public enterprises; - 73 - ANNEX V - revitalizing and boosting the financial sector as well as technical and financial cooperationt lastly, - fostering institutional reforms necessary for the revival of economic activity. A. ST&IZATION OF PUBLIC EINANCES All the measures taken or envisaged are aimed, in the medium term, at: - controlling Government expenditure, - restructuring budgetary expenditure, - rationalizing the choice of public investment projects, - restructuring and increasing revenues, - settling the Government's domestic arrears. a. Controlling Government epDenditure The Authorities have set up a unit responsible for drawing up monthly economic indicators in order to monitor the overall situation of public finances, including expenditures financed from external loans. Such indicators will reinforce further monitoring of budget execution during the year and strengthen the analysis of the overall impact of public finances on the economy. Starting in July 1989, these indicators will be supplemented by quarterly reports on the physical execution of priority investment projects. Owing to the constant changes in the external environment, the Government will, each year, starting in 1989190, prepare macroeconomic projections which will serve as a guideline in determining the overall budgetary allocations. Projections for budgetary revenues and expenditures will be made in the context of a rolling multi-annual macroeconomic framework consistent with the policies espoused in the Statement of Development Strategy. In order to curtail public spending, the following measures have already been takent - reduction of expenditure on goods; - rationalization of the use of telephones and the functioning of imprests; - 74 - ANNEX V - sale of Government vehicles and reduction and/or elimination of funds allocated for their maintenanceg - review of the policy of free water, telephone and electricity; - elimination of all unjustified expenses; - promotion of a housing policy that fosters property ownership and limits renting by the Government. In the housing sector, the Government will adopt a rational policy of promoting savings for house purchase, leasing-purchase and loans to encourage private ownership of property. Also the management of houses belonging to the Government will be privatized. The 1987188 Finance Law was an initial step towards this budgetary austerity. The overall budget for that financial year was lower than the previous years by 18.82 (13? for recurrent expenditure and 26.52 for investment). This trend continued in the 1988/89 Finance Law: 7.72 drop in the overall budget (6.3Z for recurrent expenditure and 102 for investment). The global deficit was thus reduced by 65.8? from 214,000 million CPA francs in 1987/88 to a projected 73 billion in 1988/89. To reduce personnel expenditures, the Government has: - frozen salaries and suspended salary increases due upon promotions; - restructured the components of the remuneration of public and para-public sector employees; - reorganized the Civil Service, developed a system to control the number of civil servants through Operation ANTILOPE (the National Data and Logistic Processing of State Personnel), and reduced the number of students in administrative training schools; - reduced Embassy staff and closed down Economic Missions abroad that are costly and unprofitable; - systematically retired persons who have reached the age limit (Operation ANTILOPE); - curtailed travel allowances through reduction of the mobility of personnel in categories B, C and D. As a result of these measures, the total wage bill was reduced by 12? from 280 billion CPA francs in 1986/87 to 247 billion CPA francs in 1988/89. - 75 - ANNEX V b. Restructuring of buduetarv exnenditure The restructuring of budgetary expenditure will be aimed at controlling the wage bill while permitting a better allocation of expenditures which takes into account the financing needs of essential services. In order to reduce capital expenditures in the future, the budget for the maintenance of public buildings will be determined starting in 1989/90, as a function of their condition. To ensure efficiency in the technical services most closely involved in development, in particular, agricultural research ani extension, primary and preventive health care, primary and secondary education and road maintenance, the budgetary allocations for expenditure on goods and services will be set at a level consistent with the size of the personnel and the value of the existing capital stock. c. RationalLz_ation of the choice of nublic investment Drolects To improve the programming, budgeting and monitoring of public investment and rationalize its financing, the Government has decided to consolidate public investment projects financed from external resources with those financed from the budget. The Government will adopt a four-year rolling program for public investments, each year, beginning with the 1988189 - 1992/93 period. The program will be disseminated widely. The investments planned for the first year of the program will be incorporated in the Annex to the Finance Law and the projects will be broken down into their domestic and external sources of financing. Initially, the program will cover only Government investments. Subsequently, it will be extended to include investments by public enterprises which are financed through loans guaranteed or onlent by the Government. In keeping with these principles, the preparation of the first four-year public investment program will lead to a reprogramming of ongoing and new investments on the basis of the following criteria: - priority to the maintenance of existing capital; - priority to the gradual completion of ongoing projects beginning with those that have reached an advanced stage and which are economically, strategically and/or socially justified; - investments consistent with development needs, Government objectives and sectoral policies; - priority to the economically most profitable projects; - 76 - ANNEX V - State withdrawal from activities vhich can be taken over by the private sector or local communities. The procedures and mechanisms for the preparation, selection and programming of investment projects will be improved. An economic appraisal will be made for each project costing at least 500 million CPA francs and recurrent expenditures will be taken into account in the selection of projects. Furthermore, a data sheet (fiche de projet) will be drawn up for each project and a computerized unit for projects will be set up. The execution of the investment budget, irrespective of the source of financing will be strictly monitored. Increased efficiency of public investments also requires improvements in procedures covering procurement and monitoring of public contracts by the Directorate General for Major Projects (DGCT). Such improvement of procedures, which should result in reducing project costs, will be brought through the standardization of documents and methods, the training of personnel and the adaptation of regulations. d. Restructurinsz and increase of revenues The restructuring and increase of revenues requires revitalizing the fiscal machinery and enlarging the tax base. Heasures already taken to increase Government revenues are: - the setting up of special missions to collect customs, fiscal and service revenues; - reinforcement of mechanisms to control budgetary revenues and to recover tax arrears; - increase of the special tax on oil products and the tax on alcohol, wines, beers and non-alcoholic beverages; - the institution of a property tax; - the ihcrease in registration and stamp duty fees and the minimum payable company tax (152). To raise the level of non-oil fiscal revenue to 171 of non-oil GDP in the medium term, the Government plans to increase the above ratio by 1S per year by providing Cameroon with fiscal and customs instruments that are easy to administer and better adapted to its economic situation. To that end, reforms will be made in the following areas: Customs duties and taxes - support for the iview of the common external tariff applicable to imports into UDEAC countries; - 77- ANNEX V - instit.ution of a minimum import tariff and reduction of the maximum rates through adjustments in the supplementary tax; - reduction of the volume of exemptions which currently affect a large number of imports, and strengthening of customs control; - application of the principle according to which Imports under public tenders must be subject to the normal import duties and taxes even if the contracts are financed from external resources; - subjection of imports by Embassies to quotas negotiated between the Ministry of External Affairs and Heads of Diplomatic Missions; - implementation of the decision that all major imports must have been certified by the exporting country. Value added tax (VAS The VAT will be introduced in 1991192 and will harmonize the internal turnover tax with the import tax and replace, in particular, the single tax and the internal tax on production. Income tax To address the present inadequacies of this tax, the following measures are envisageds - the setting up of a single registration system during the 1989190 financial year; - the computerization of duties and taxes (Operation TRINITE will soon be operational in Yacunde and will be extended to Douala in 1989190). In the medium term, a study of all income taxes will be launched in order to: - simplify the income tax system; - extend the tax base; - tax different sources of income in a more equitable manner. Registration The introduction of the real estate tax in the 1988/iE budget is a first step towards effective taxation of all landed property in urban areas. Its scope of application is, however, limited by the poor surveying methods. In order to revitalize this sector, the Government will, under the second urban project, take all the steps necessary for the survey to become quickly operational. This survey will permit extending the scope of application of the real estate tax -78- ANNEX V and improve collection of registration fees and taxes on rental income. Other envisaged measures - the launching of studies to determine the impact of the various fiscal measures on production, consumption and revenues; - introduction of a port and airport tax; - improvement of the collection of service charges for public services. e. Settlement of the Government's domestic arrears Concerned about resolving the liquidity crisis of the banking system and fostering the revival of the private sector, the Authorities have decided to clear, as quickly as possible, all outstanding domestic arrears. The claims preseated by the enterprises and evaluated by the ad- hoc commission assisted by a foreign auditing firm will be repaid as followst 100l before 31 December 1989 for those below 100 million CFA francs; 15? cash and 85? in 14 semi-annual installments with a one- year grace period and at the ordinary BEAC discount rate for the rest. Externally guaranteed commercial arrears will be handled either through additional negotiations with the suppliers concerned or within a multilateral framework. Administrative arrears will be settled as follows: - rent arrears: over a three-year period; - salary arrearst over a five-year period; - arrears owed to public entities will be consolidated over a ten- year period; - arrears due to public enterprises will be treated within the framework of their restructuring and the modalities of settlement defined in performance contracts. Finally, a reque3t has been made to the French Government to reschedule the postal and hospital debts. B. RATIONALIZATION OF THE MANAGEMENT OF THE PUBLIC AND PAUA-PUBLIC SECTOR a. Reform of the Civil Service The primary objective of this reform will be to redefine the role of the State and to improve personnel management. This - 79 - ANNEX V objective, which will result in improved control of the wage bill, will be achieved through - a recruitment policy limiting entry into the Civil Service, in particular, from vocational and administrative training schools; - an early retirement scheme and the strict application of retirement regulations; - the consolidation of existing systems of payroll management; - the curtailment of travel allowances, in particular, by reducing the movement of personnel; - the review of the policy of social benefits (family allowances, housing allowances, Government houses, etc...); - the review of the organizational structures of Ministries and the setting up of Organization and Personnel Plans defining clearly the roles of each Ministry, taking care to avoid duplication of responsibilities. The review will define the exact staffing needs of the Ministries and, where appropriate, identify existence of overstaffing. This should, in turn, enable the determination of operating budgets based on the mission and identified needs of each Ministry; - a policy of reduction of civil servants based, in particular, on voluntary departures and redeployment in the private sector. The second objective concerns increasing efficiency in the Civil Service through: - the review of the legal and statutory framework of the Civil Service (general staff regulations, special rules and regulations, etc...) to define a Civil Service policy based on enhancing career development and on increasing the motivation and duty consciousness of Government employees; and particularlyt an inventory of skilled personnel in the administration, by level; a new remuneration policy in the Civil Service which links the review of salaries, subsidiary allowances and benefits to the evaluation of individual performances; the improvement and institutional reinforcement of personnel management in the Ministry of Public Service, Ministry of Finance and in the technical ministries: administrative management (careers) and financial management (salaries), and the strenghtening of institutional relations between ministries; - 80 - ANNEX V a vocational and continuing education policy adapted to the needs of the Civil Service. A Civil Service Commission will be set up to ensure that the above- mentioned objectives are achieved. b. Rehabilitation of vublic enterurises i) Basic principles A commission for Public Enterprise Rehabilitation, reporting to an interministerial committee and assisted by a technical committee, has been operational for some time now. Its mandate is tot - Identify enterprises: to be maintained in the Government's portfolio (public utility or service enterprises and strategic enterprises); to be privatized (enterprises which, though potentially viable, need not be in the public domain); to be liquidated. - Define the reforms necessary to rationalize macroeconomic policy and the institutional environment so as to improve the performance of the rehabilitated public enterprises; - Propose a policy for Government equity investments; - Analyze the monopoly right. and other privileges enjoyed by each enterprise and recommend measures to be taken. Actions to be taken within the context of this public enterprise rehabilitation program are in line with the following considerations: - encouragement of competition and reduction of monopolies which may hamper the efficient allocation of resources; - the granting of maximum autonomy to public enterprises so as to improve their management. The Government should exercise its authority only by establishing major sectoral guidelines and, a posteriori, by evaluating results. However, decisions having financial implications (investments, recruitment and dismissal of staff, increase in equity capital and loans) must receive the prior approval of the supervisory authority; - 81- ANNEX V - review of the management of public enterprises so that they can achieve their objectives in the most efficient manner; - systematic negotiation of agreements to onlend obligations contracted by the Government on behalf of public enterprises; - establishment of a performance contract with each enterprise remaining in the public portfolio. Performance contracts mtst specify the respective obligations of the Government and the enterprises, including the objectives to be attained and performance criteria. Each performance contract should include a financing, investment, technical and commercial management, personnel and organizational plan for each enterprise with an implementation schedule. The contracts should also specify the Government's responsibilities, such as the settlement of arrears, increases in capital, the payment of its bills and reimbursement for work done for the Government. They should also specify obligations that may be delegated to enterprise management, such as the streamlining of management, commitments relating to financial restructuring, price fixing and the recruitment and dismissal of personnel; - economic and financial analysis of all investments carried out by public enterprises, ensuring that each enterprise can meet its debt service obligations. These investments must be periodically reviewed as part of the activities of the Monitoring Committee in charge of supervising performance contracts; - minimizing the social impact of public enterprise restructuring by adopting compensatory and reconversion measures; - minimizing budgetary transfers to enterprises from which the Government is divesting by: abolishing Government subsidies and guarantees; eliminating monopoly rights and tax exemptions and privileges outside the provisions of the Investment Code; - provision of sufficient resources in the Government budget to pay: Government arrears to public enterprises; arrears of public enterprises; - 82 - ANNEX V operating subsidies; * severance pay as specified in the performance contracts and in the liquidation and privatization decisions. ii) Measures taken Among the 150 public enterprises in the Government's portfolio, diagnostic studies were carried out on 75 (emergency group). On this basis, decisions were taken to privatize 6 enterprises, to liquidate 12 others (5 have already been dissolved), to rehabilitate 38 and to merge 4 enterprises into 2 entities. The decisions concerning 14 enterprises of the financial and banking sector and the National Produce Marketing Board (NPMB) shall be taken on 'e basis of individual audits currently underway (cf. Banking Section). Final reports on the restructuring plans of each enterprise will be submitted to the Interministerial Committee upon their completion. A similar procedure (diagnosis, Interministerial Committee decision, action plan, performance contract) will begin in 1989 for the remaining enterprises. In order to avoid the recurrence of the problems which led to the present situation, studies on the institutional and macroeconomic environment were conducted. Laws and regulations will be drafted in accordance with the conclusions of these studies. Among the measures envisaged in this context, the following legislative or regulatory instruments concern directly the public enterprise sectors - regulations governing the activities and the organization of public enterprises and entities; - legislation on privatization; - redrafting of the statutes for the public enterprises retained in the public portfolio; - drafting of performance contracts between the Government and the enterprises retained in the public portfolio. In addition, studies are underway to facilitate the implementation of rehabilitation plans. These studies are aimed at: - defining the methods for the implementation of the privatization program; - 83 - ANNEX V - defining a rational policy for Government equity participation in enterprises; - evaluating the social, human and financial consequences of the program of public enterprise reorganization and liquidation. iii) Monitoring the imalementation of the rehabilitation measures The Commission for Public Enterprise Rehabilitation is responsible for the follow-up and application of the decisions taken by the Head of State. In this respect, its duties were extended to include: - the preparation of plans to restructure enterprises retained in the public portfolio; - the preparation of necessary accompanying measures; - the monitoring of the implementation of plans and measures; - the monitoring and implementation of the privatization and liquidation program. To ensure the sustainability of progress already achieved, the Public Enterprise Commission should be transformed into a permanent body and full-term staff should be attached to its Technical Committee. In addition, a Committee to monitor the implementation of performance contracts, by entreprise, will be set up. It will comprise: - a representative of the supervisory Ministry; - a representative of the Ministry of Plan and Regional Development (MINPAT); - a representative of the Ministry of Industrial and Commercial Development (MINDIC); - a representative of the Ministry of Finance (MINFI); - the General Manager of the enterprise. He shall be responsible for meeting the secretarial needs of the Committee; - the Technical Rehabilitaticn Committee. Any person or legal entity may be invited to participate in the deliberations of the Committee by virtue of his or its competence. - 84 - ANNEX V The monitoring of the performance contract entails assessing the implementation of the contract and overseeing its periodic revision. iv) Financial and technical rehabilitation of public enterDrises The principles which will guide financial and technical rehabilitation of enterprises to be maintained in the Government's portfolio are as followst - the financial and technical rehabilitation will take into account the liabilities of .he enterprises and their working capital needs; - arrears and overdrafts owed to local banks: rescheduling to be negotiated by the parties under the auspices of the Government; - arrears owed to local suppliers: rescheduling of debts owed to the major suppliers, immediate payment of debts owed to small-scale suppliers; - arrears owed to foreign banks and suppliers: rescheduling negotiated by the Government, if possible, on a case-by- case basis; - arrears owed to other public enterprises, including CNPS: rescheduling over a four year period; - fiscal arrears: forgiven, on a case-by-case basis; - assumption of medium and long-term debt service by the Government: case-by-case examinat'on within the framework of the performance contracts; - the technical rehabilitation will be carried out on the basis of a minimum investment programme. At this stage of the public enterprise restructuring process (May 1989), preliminary estimates of the cost of rehabilitating enterprises remaining within the Government's portfolio and included within the priority group amounts to CFAP 220 billion (not including the banking and financial sector), including the social costs. Donors will be contacted to mobihze financial resources for the Government and the enterprises. - 85 - ANNEX V C. RIHABILITaTIOy OF THE BANRING AND FINANCIAL mTER The Cameroonian banking system has been facing difficulties for several years. Various deficiencies have been identified by the Government, including: - shortage of liquidity - inadequacy of equity capital - the magnitude of non-performing credits - declining profitability - weak management. Given the vital importance of an effective banking system for the success of the structural adjustment program, reforms undertaken by the Government to redress the financial sector and the banking system will comprise the following elements during the time frame of the program: (i) A plan of action to restructure the banking system, includings t he liquidation of distressed banks, including CAMBANK, the Cameroon Development Bank (BCD) and FONADER (the National Fund for Rural Development); * consultation with the foreign partners in all jointly- owned commercial banks for the preparation of plans for their restructuring or liquidation; * examinction of options for the restructuring of the National Investment Corporation (SNI); * setting up an appropriate structure to coordinate the measures taken by the Government to restructure the banking system; * divestiture or gradual transfer to private Cameroonians or foreigners of Govermment shares in commercial banks, while redefining the conditions of Government involvement in the management of these banks; * subjecting the setting up of new banks with Government participation to in-depth feasibility studies that would determine the prospects and conditions for their future viable operation. In this context, the establishment of the Agricultural Credit Bank and the Industrial and Commercial Credit Bank of Cameroon will be subjected to the determination of viable operating conditions. - 86 - ANNEX V (Li) Emergency measures will be taken to relieve the liquidity crisis of the banking system, including: * the settlement of Government arrears vis-&-vis the private sector; * the abandonment of some deposits held by the Government and public administrations in banking institutions; * the consolidation of some banking debts by BEAC. On the basis of currently available data and information, the cost of restructuring the banking system (including the liquidation of some distressed banks) is estimated between 300 to 375 billion CPA francs. The adoption and implementation of the restructuring plan requires the joint efforts of the Government, the shareholders, the BEAC and the multilateral and bilateral donors. The financing of such a restructuring plan would have to come from a combination of resources includings * those listed in (ii) above as means for relieving the banking liquidity crisis; * contributions in fresh money; * the eventual issuance of Treasury bonds. The Government will initiate discussions with the BEAC with a view to seeking the consolidation of outstanding banking debts as well as exploring the possibility of other financial assistance by BEAC toward banking restructuring. (iii) In conjunction with BEAC, the Government will formulate an action plan to reform the system of crop credits. This plan will comprise, on the one hand, measures to settle the arrears of the previous crop seasons, part of which would require rescheduling by BEAC, and on the other hand, new measures to put the financing of future campaigns on a sound footing. Tn particular, the Government will ensure the strict application of decisions taken by BEAC to limit bank financing of crop credit to expected export revenues. Furthermore, the decision-making authorities in BEAC will ensure the strict application of rejulations governing the granting of discount facilities by BEAC. (iv) In agreement with BEAC, appropriate measures will be taken to strengthen the inspection of banks by the monetary authorities by reinforcing the BEAC inspection unit with that of the Ministry of Finance. Furthermore, the supervisory - 87- ANNEX V authorities will ensure that the prudential basic banking ratios (liquidity ratio, ratio of capital adequacy) vlll be strictly monitored and enforced, following the restructuring of the banking sector. (v) Within the framework of prevailing banking regulations and in conjunction with BEAC, selective banking policy reforms will be formulated, including: * the reduction of the range of deposit and lending interest rates to make them more flexible and adapted; * the gradual and selective widening of banking margins as one of the means to ensure sufficient remuneration for the banks; * the adjustment ar interest rates to discourage capital flight and to attract capital flows required to promote the priority sectors of tte economy; - the adaptation of tax regulations to the specificity of banking and financial sector activities, including measures to encourage the constitution of provisions for bad debts. In this respect, studies will be carried out on certain taxes levied on banking transactions (tax on the distribution of credit, internal turnover tax, tax on real estate income) with a view to reducing or abolishing them; the preparation and implementation of laws and regulations to improve loan recovery by the banking system. (vi) Apart from the immediate measures outlined above and which form part of the structural adjustment program, more in-depth reforms of the financial and banking system will be envisaged. In this respect, the Government will initiate a dialogue with BEAC to prepare a program for reforms in the following areass * gradual abolition of interest subsidies, beginning with the merging of the preferential rediscount rate with the normal rediscount rate; * with the return to monetary equilibrium, the abandonment of credit control in the form of bank-by-bank credit ceilings; * adjustment in the rediscount system by measures aimed at encouraging medium- and long-term credit in r.lation to short-term credit; * establishment of a money market in Cameroon, following appropriate studies. This money market should gradually supplement the BEAC rediscount system and - 88 - ANNX V its interest rate should become the reference rate for the banking system; setting up, after undertaking studies, of a capital market with the introduction of new financial instruments (corporate securities, commercial paper, bonds, Treasury bills, mutual funds, Investment Unit Trust, etc.) D. RECOVERY OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY The strategy to revive production has the following priority objectives: - increasing rural sector output by improving agricultural productivity and harnessing the existing production potential; - restructuring the industrial fabric and creating a competitive incentives environment that would promote private initiative and exports. As the inevitable link between production and consumption, coumunications and transport networks will be rehabilitated and better maintained. a. Rural Development Within the context of preserving and managing our natural resources to assure their sustainability, the objectives retained for this sector concern: - ensuring food security; - promoting and diversifying exports; - increasing revenue in rural areas. To attain these objectives it will be necessary to: - improve agricultural support services provided to the rural population; - maintain and upgrade assistance to traditional smallholders; - promote the creation of medium sized farms; - increase the productivity and value added of the agricultural sector. i) Food Security Government action is geared towards: - 89- ANNEX V - improving and strengthening the necessary link between production, processing, distribution and marketing by reducing gradually the role of the public sector while increasingly calling upon the private sector to set up facilities for the storage, preservation and processing of agricultural products. A program for the construction and improvement of feeder roads is also underway for this purpose; - instituting an early warning system against drought and a program for the mobilization of food products in case of need; - strengthening the system of gathering and processing production and marketing data. ii) Recovery and diversification of agricultural exports Recovery and diversification of agricultural exports requires improving farming techniques to increase productivity. To this end, there is a need to bring yields to levels which will ensure a minimum of profitability, to reinforce applied research and disseminate findings, to increase the timely use of fertilizers and pesticides and, finally, to pursue the promotion of animal traction, motorization and mechanization. As far as cocoa is concerned, emphasis will be placed on regeneration and pest control. Regarding coffee, improvements in arabica farming methods and in the quality of the product will be the prime concern. Cotton production will be increased by opening new plantations in the south. As for oil palm and rubber, marginal plantations will be abandoned and new ones created in high yield areas. Studies are necessary to determine the possibility of exporting non traditional products like vegetables and to identify potential regional and sub-regional markets. iii) Pricing and marketing volicies for agricultural oroducts Prices of inputs The policy is to eliminate fertilizer subsidies within a period of 3 years, to reduce subsidies for phytosanitary products by 5OZ within 5 years and to privatize their distribution. This policy is already being implemented in the case of fertilizers. Producer 2rices In view of the downward trend in world prices for primary products, the Government will set up a pricing system which takes into account world price fluctuations and incentives for production so as to restore the financial balance for the crops - 90 - ANNEX V in question. In this regard, the Government will institute a system of floor prices for the producer and strive to reduce marketing costs as well as operating expenses of the National Produce Marketing Board (ONCPBINPMB) and SODECOTON. A system will be set up to share the surplus among the farmer, the Government and the Stabilization Fund (managed by ONCPB) if the sale price is higher than the cost price. Marketing The Government will gradually liberalize the internal and external marketing of primary commodities with a view to enhancing their competitiveness. To this end, the modalities for granting licenses to exporters vill be revised in order to increase marketing efficiency. On a case-by-case basis, marketing monopolies, heretofore granted to certain exporters in certain regions, vill be eliminated. The role of the National Produce Marketing Board (NPMB) vill be redefined to permit the private sector to progressively take charge of internal and external marketing of export crops. Taxation - The export tax on primary products will be abolished. A progressive taxation system will be a component of the flexible pricing system; - price equalization funds for rice, cooking oil and sugar have already been set up. Their impact on local production and retail prices vill be closely monitored. Institutional susmort Government objectives in this area are: - strengthening of research and extension services, including for livestock, mainly by setting up on-farm demonstrations and reorganizing extension services at the national level. The pilot phase of this action has already been started in the North, East, South and North-West Provinces; - according greater importance to cooperatives mainly by: . granting them greater autonomy; . clearly defining the intervention of Governmnt services in cooperatives; . reviewing legislation governing cooperatives; - assisting village communities in the realization of small- scale community projects; -91 - ANNEX V - strengthening the Chamber of Agriculture to enable it to fully play its role in promoting agriculture! products; and - improving the management of agro-industries to increase profitability and redefining the role of development agencies and other state enterprises (related work is underway within the context of the Comission for Public Enterprise Rehabilitation). iv) Recovery of the Forestry Sector The forestry sector has considerable medium and long term potential. Like coffee and cocoa it is an important source of foreign exchange. In this light, an action plan involving institutional, legal, technical and commercial aspects has been prepared within the framework of the Tropical Forest Action Plan. The objective of this plan is to institute a forestry policy framework for the rational exploitation of timber and at the same time to ensure the conservation of existing ecosystems (flora and fauna). This plan is supported bys - the revision of the Forestry Code, notably ins * granting longer term exploitation licenses based on forest development plans through competitive bidding; * introducing new forestry regulations concerning the controlled exploitation of fragile ecological zones and associating exploiters to forest protection activities; * reviewing taxes in the forestry sector and modifying them to encourage the exploitation of secondary species and the development of processing activity within the country; - the management of a national system for standardizing processed wood; - the management and the increase of Permanent State Forest within the framework of the global development of rural areas; - the strengthening of the capacity of the Forestry Department in the area of forest management by setting up a planning and regulatory unit, and redefining its attributions; - the preparation of an infrastructure and transport support plan with due attention to its environmental impact; - 92 - ANNEX V - the preservation of existing and future parks and reserves by setting up buffer monest - the implementation of a sylvicultural program in concessionary leasing so as to promote the development and exploitation of future crops; - the pursuit of the on-going reforestation program and intensification of applied forestry research activities; - the rationalization of the exploitation of forest resources within the framework of the natural resources management policy (reforestation and regeneration); - the establishment of national SMEs in the sector; - the increased utilization of wood pulp in construction and equipment projects (notably by the public sector). v) Recovery of the Livestock and Fisheries Sector * Livestock Government intends tos - Institute a policy that calls on livestock owners to participate In their own development by gradually transferring on to them most development expenses hitherto borne by the State; - encourage and promote private sector participation in the supply of inputs and services; - meet domestic protein requirements with domestic production. Specific areas in which Government intends to carry out substantial policy reforms are as follows: - Cost Recovery The Government will set up mechanisms that will ensure cost recovery for clinical services and vaccinations as well as pharmaceutical products mainly by phasing out the distribution of free veterinary products. As concerns the prgservation of tse-tse fly-free zones, Government will set up a financing system that will require livestock farmers to participate either financially or in kind. Such revenue will, as a matter of priority, be used to meet the operating costs (excluding salaries) of livestock services. The revenue thus collected will be paid either into a special -93 - ANNEX V treasury account opened for such purposes or into the livestock development funds that already exist in each province. - naveloping private yeterinary services The Go-vernment will encourage the development of veterinary services by the private sectoz. This should ease the work load of Government services and stimulate the creation of jobs in the private sector. This policy will be implemented according to the following guidelinest - gradually providing private veterinary clinics exclusive rights to furnish veterinary services and to distribute veterinary products; - when possible, subcontracting to private persons activities that are public in nature such as vaccination, the inspection of animal products, etc... - Intensifyint protection proRrams Government intends to intensify animal health protection programs by emphasizing prevention in order to limit the contraction and spread of animal diseases. In this context, the range of vaccines manufactured by the National Veterinary Laboratory (LAVANET) has to be broadened. - Training and support services Government action will be geared towardss - providing special selected breeds and inputs to livestock farmers; - increasing the provision of technical advice to livestock farmers. - Institutional Supnort The Veterinary Pharmaceutical Office will be reorganized in order to improve gradually its performance and the quality of the services it provides. The reorganization should enable it to operate without state subsidies in two years time. Similarly, the Livestock Development Corporation (SODEPA) will be restructured in the framework of the reform of the para-public sector. * Fisheries Government objectives in the area of fisheries is to promote national fish production so as to reduce imports of fish -94 - ANNEX V products to the minimum. Government action in the various related areas will be as followss - In the area of industrial sea fishinis negotiating fishing agreements with neighbouring countries with a view to obtaining access for Cameroonian fishing vessels to their more resource-rick territorial waters, and extending our territorial waters in accordance with the new provisions of the Convention on the Law of the Sea. - In the area of small-scale fishinR (sea and inland): providing small-scale fishermen with the necessary financial means by making lines of credit available through sc-nd financial institutions and organizing small-scale fishermen into cooperatives to facilitate the provision of extension advice. Furthermore, the system for preserving and marketing fresh fish will be improved. - In the area of fish farmina: fish farming stations will be equipped for more intensive production of a large number and variety of fry, while ensuring distribution to fish farmers. The production and distribution of fish feed will be pursued. In the area of strenRthenina existinR structures, the Development Authority for Small Craft Sea Fishing (MIDEPECAM) will be restructured in order to increase its capacity and efficiency to provide technical advice and access to loans. The National Zootechnical and Veterinary Training Centre (fishery section) in Foumban will also be reinforced in order to train a sufficient number of technical and extension staff. vi) Financina the Rural Sector The Government intends to accelerate the opening of the Agricultural Credit Bank of Cameroon whose management will comply with the principles of sound bank management and whose main objective will be to meet the financing needs of existing farms and the newly created medium-scale farms. In the absence of the Agricultural Credit Bank, lines of credit will be made available by viable intermediaries for the financing of agricultural, livestock and fishery ventures initiated by private individuals. Furthermore, special attention will be paid to the development of savings and loans institutions for smallholders and village communities. b. Trade and Industry The industrial and commercial development strategy aims at promoting private sector initiative and competitiveness through more neutral incentives and increased competition. The main objectives in this area will therefore be to: - 95 - MXV neutral incentives and increased competition. The main objectives in this area will therefore be to: - progressively liberalize the economy to stimulate competition and reduce domestic prices and costs; - modernize the existing legal framework; - eliminate existing distortions in incentives and harmonize effective protection across sectors whi4e ensuring minimum protectior. to local industries primarily through import tariffs. To attain these objectives, the Government defined its strategy around four major components: - the industrial strategy; - the liberalization of trade and prices; - the rationalization of tax incentives; - the reform of the institutional framework. b. i) Industrial Strategsy Confronted with tuhe limited integration of the industrial sector, the inoperative nature of the present incentives system and the inefficiency of banks as financial intermediaries for industries, the Government intends to take the following corrective measures in the near terms - intensify the use of local raw materials; - restructure industries, improve the quantitative and qualitative performance of industrial public enterprises through stricter performance contracts and coordinate information necessary for the development of national resources; - revise the Investment Code with a view to simplifying it and adapting it to the Government's economic policy objectives. To this effect, eligibility to the benefits of the Code will be non-discriminatory and open to all investors, whether for new investments or extensions of existing ones. Fiscal benefits will be based on performance criteria such as value added, employment generation, training and exports. Such benefits will be reduced over time and granted over a limited, non-renewable period. Customs duty exemptions will be granted only to industrial equipment necessary for initial investments or extension projects and for a very limited, non-renewable period. -96 - ANNEX V ii) Liberalization of trade and prices Trade liberalization Trade liberalization aims at: - regularly supplying the domestic market vith domestically produced and imported goods; - promoting the export of both traditional commodities and industrial products; - stimulating competition on the domestic market and enhancing the competitiveness of local industries at the international level. The adjustment measures include, iEter alias - revision of the legislation governing comercial activity to allow free access to all stages of trade, protect the consumer and provide a regulatory framework against unfair competition; - gradual elimination of quantitative restrictions (QRs) on Imports and their replacement by tariff protection which takes into account local industrial production; - streamlining of import procedures with the abolition of import licenses for goods not included in the Programme General des Echanges; - anti-dumping legislation so as to counteract possible negative impact of trade liberalization. Price liberalization Price liberalization is part of the series of reforms designed to revamp investment incentives and promote freer competition to the benefit of consumers at large. The current system of price control and administered profit margins will be substantially modified with the following steps: - gradual liberalization of prices and profit margins of all goods and services except for a limited number of essential ones; - elimination of control over profit margins for all goods and services that are not subject to QRs or price controls (homologation prdalablt.); - updating of texts defining the components of the cost and the profit margins for goods and services; - 97 - ANNEK V - simplification of price approval (homologation) procedures and increased flexibility in price administration. A monitoring system will be put in place to evaluate the impact of trade liberalization on the economy as well as to prevent and correct undesirable results. iii) Rationalization of fiscal Incentives The distorsions resulting from the system of indirect taxes will be corrected through, in particular: - the abolition of export taxes on all goods excluding timber, pending the modification of forestry taxes; - the introduction of a value-added tax (VAT) in replacement of the turnover taxes on domestically produced goods and on imports, the single tax (TU) and the interior tax on production (TIP). This measure will be introduced in close collaboration with the Customs and Economic Union of Central Africa (UDEAC); - the rationalization of import taxes including the simplification of the rate structure, and the reduction of the average rate and dispersion of duties. Furthermore, the Government will continue to lend support to the ongoing UDEAC reform of Common External Tariffs (CET). The benefits granted under the Investment Code and corporate taxation will also be rationalized. iv) Reform of the institutional framework To support the adjustment process, the institutiznal environment for economic activities will be revamped. Measures to be taken include: - setting up an investment information and promotion agency; - setting up an export promotion scheme on the basis of studies to be undertaken; - improving the performance and efficiency of assistance to SME's and SMIs; - amending labor regulations in order to reduce labor market rigidities; - establishing a Commercial Code and a Company Code with a special emphases on laws and regulations governing bankruptcy and inter-enterprise partnerships; - 98 - ANNEX V - designing a system of national standards and ultimately setting up a National Standardization Institute. c. Water. oower and minima The recovery of these sectors depends largely on international economic conditions and the growth of domestic consumption, vhence the need to acquire adequate knowledge on all the relevant economic and social parameters. The quality of technical staff and the mastery of information are also important indicators of success in this sector. i) Water and Sanitation Emphasis will be placed on improving the living conditions and general health of the population - factors which are indispensable to the country's economic an_. social development. The Government intends to ptcsue its efforts to: - provide towns with drinking water while ensuring that such projects are profitable for the Cameroon National Water Corporation, in accordance with the performance contract signed between the Government and this enterprise; - supply drinking water to rural areas by adopting technology suited to the local culture and to the specific investment and maintenance requirements of the region; - revive activities in the sanitation sub-sector through appropriate institutional and legal measures. ii) Power A National Power Plan which will define the Government's medium and long term strategy is being drawn up. In the area of electricity, the Government's objectives are to: - carry out a minimal program in the areas of production, transportation and distribution of electricity with a view to facilitating at minimum costs the expansion and redeployment of industry, expanding coverage in towns already electrified, developing agriculture and improving living conditions in rural areas; - adopt measures aimed at reaching a balance between the objectives and the means put at the disposal of the National Electricity Corporation (SONEL) through appropriate tariff rates and a management system, as defined in the performance contract; - 99- AMES V In the area of hydrocarbons, ths Government will promote oil exploration activities by providing appropriate incentives, redefining the oil policy and updating the Mining Law. The National Gas Plau being drawn up will promote the development of gas-related industries (ammonia, urea, methanol and by-products, etc.). In addition, the Government intends to pursue its policy of diversifying sources of energy, especially by replacing firewood with cooking gL8. iii) MSininj The Gove nment's new mining concession policy wilL require that exploitation rights be granted through tenders. This will lead to the development and exploitation by the private sector of the already discovered minerals reserves, in particular iron, bauxite, rutile, tin and gold, while ensuring that the Government earns royalties. d. Commuications. trgnsport. urban nlanninm and housiaf infrastructura In order to put an end to the situation prevailing in this sector, the following institutional measures vill be takent - improvement in the programming and monitoring of projects; - clear definition of each ministry's field of action and responsibilitys for example, urban roads, feeder roads, etc.; - giving priority to projects which are profitable and create jobs; - privatizing or rationalizing activities which are industrial or commercial in nature (Post and Telecommunications, transport enterprises, etc.); - infrastructure cost recovery on similar bases for all types of transport - Air, Road, Railway and sea - by making users bear the recurrent costs of maintaining and renewing such transport infrastructure; - drawing up performance contracts between the Government and the public enterprises retained in the public portfolio, including the nature of investments and their financing, remuneration for unprofitable public ser-ices that are imposed on the enterprise and performance objectives, etc.; - staff reduction and redeployment of extra staff in the other productive activities of the sector: management of motor parks, parcels and passenger services, urban and inter-city transport, hire-purchase of vehicles, car maintenance and the manufacture of spare parts. -100 - ANNEX V parcels and passenger services, urban and inter-city transport, hire-purchase of vehicles, car maintenance and the manufacture of spare parts. i) Roads Currently, roads handle 852 of passenger and freight transport. The classified network of 33,000 km has only 3,500 km of paved roads. Action will be taken to reduce the already very high cost of road construction and transport. It is also important to allocate sufficient funds for road maintenance, including for rural roads. In this respect, it will be advisable to: - study the possibility of setting up a road fund; - maintain the existing road network and determine potential new road portions; - promote SMEs in the public works sector which use local materials, in particular through associating them to works related to road maintenance; - build new feeder roads. V.) Railway The National Railway Authorit; is facing serious financial difficulties in part due to keen comj'etition from the other major means of transport. In the context of a performance contract, a rehabilitation and reorganizatlon plan will be implemented in this sector in order to increase the revenues of the enterprise and to enhance its efficiency. iii) Sea The port rates charged by the National Ports Authority are incompatible with the volume of investments undertaken. These rates will be raised and updated on a regular basis, and their structure will be adjusted to the services rendered by the Authority. In developing the country's ports, priority will be given to the optimal use and possible improvement of the existing facilities. The development or eventual building of new port facilities in other parts of the country (Kribi, Limbe) will be coordinated with the development of the mining, fisheries and forestry sectors in these regions. -101 - ANEK V iv) Air Over the last decade, the development of airport facilities proceeded at a rapid pace without, however, benefitting from careful planning. The activities in this sector will be rationalized. The recurrent costs of equipment and navigation will be borne by users who wil' be called upon to contribute significantly to the purchase of new equipment through appropriate charges. The maintenance and level of operation of the existing facilities and the programming of new ones will be adapted to the real needs in air traffic. The magnitude of investments in airport facilities will be commensurate with realistic air traffic estimates. P?i-ect choices will also be governed by concerns to limit initial investments and operating costs to levels compatible with probable revenues. The airports will be managed as commercial operations by setting up one or more companies which have the skills required for operating airport platforms. The Cameroon Airlines (CAMAIR) will be restructured. In order to minimize recurrent expenditures and increase the profitability o- the sector, airports with little passenger traffic will increasingly be served by 3rd class airline comparties. v) Post and Telecommiunications The current management of this sector, incompatible with its industrial and commercial nature, has been partly improved by the adoption of a supplementary budget. Management will be further improved by computerizing operations and adjusting the level and structure of tariffs, including international ones. The number of post offices and telephone exchanges will be increased on the basis of demand and the financial situation of Post and Telecommunications services. vi) Urban nlannini an- housinR The major objectives of the urban planning and housing policy are to stimulate public and private sector participation in creating a proper environment for ha-mmonious social and economic development. In this respect, the Government intends to take the following measuress - 102 - ANNX v (a) improve the functioning of the real estate market and the management of the State's properties by streamlining administrative procedures, demarcating and identifying public property and setting up a multi-purpose survey system; (b) reinforce the technical and financial means of mun'.cipalities by adopting a plan of action aimed at mobilizing local resources; (c) encourage the private sector to play a greater role in building houses and equipping lands by reorienting the activities of the public enterprises in this eector (Cameroon Real Estate Corporation (SIC), the Urban and Rural Lands Development and Equipment Authority (HAKTUR), Cameroon Housing Loans Fund). vii) Urban and Inter-city Transport The financial and physical asset situation of the Cameroon Urban Transport Corporation is a very serious cause for concern. A reorganization and rehabilitation program will be drawn up. The private sector will be encouraged and organized to make a greater contribution to inter-city and urban transport while taking into account the protection of the rural environment. viii) Tourism Cameroon has large and diversified potential for tourism. In order to activate this sector, which has so far been inadequately exploited, the following measures will be takens - improve the management and maintenance of national parks; - reinforce the quality of national tourist products, in particular by intensifying promotional activities; - facilitate obtaining entry visas; - develop reception and lodging facilities, in particular by encouraging the private sector. e. Human resources The Government reaffirms its willingness to preserve what Cameroon has achieved in the field of human resources and to undertake the following: - examine the structural and financial situation of the education/training and health sectors; - define the essential components of the Government's program in accordance with the vital socio-economic objectives of the country; - 103 - ANNEX V - propose a strategy which takes into account the resourees required to achieve the country's vital objectives, on the one hand, and the appropriate budgetary allocations and borrowing policy on the other. The above development strategy should help ensure that the process of structural adjustment does not result in the deterioration of the most essential social indicators. i) Education/training The main lines of action will be the followingt - prevent any decline in the current school attendance rate at the primary school level; - gradually improve the intrinsic quality of teaching at all levels; - strengthen training activities which are closely linked to the effective demand in the labor markets; - review the objectives of higher education in the light of the above and, within this context, revise the scholarship award system in order to make it more efficient and better adapted to the new socio-economic conditions. ii) Health The main lines of the strategy should: - reflect priorities based on a re-exsmination of the epidemiological situation and national objectives such as the promotion of mother and child care and responsible parenthood; - promote preventive and primary health care in rural areas; - improve the quality of health personnel through training and re-training; - in hospitals, emphasize measures designed to rationalize the system, including the improvement of staff management and output, and above all, the ability of hospitals to play their role as referral institutions. E. IMOUTUAtION OF THE SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF ADJUSTMENT The central objective of the Development Strategy adopted by the Government is to reestablish sust.ainable growth with equity over the medium-term. But growth is iot by itself a sufficient condition to reduce povertv and to improve the living conditions of households. Therefore the - 104 - ANNEX V Government intends to implement, at the heart of its Structural Adjustment Program, a Social Dimensions component with the following objectivess (a) In the short- and medium-term, to protect the most vulnerable groups of the population in the course of the adjustment program, as well as groups that are directly affected by adjustment measures; (b) In the medium- and long-term, to promote the participation of the poorest groups of the pcpulation in the economic recovery process. The implementation of this component hinges on the design and implementation of five complementary action programs in the following sectors: population and health, education and training, employment, role of women, and institutional framework. In this context, the Government intends to: - define a new national population policy, and mobilize the necessary resources to implement it; - define a new national health policy, aimed in particular at strengthening and broadening the national primary health care program, including the introduction of a family planning component, and implement the Bamako Initiative, in particular an emergency program of acquisition and distribution of basic supplies and essential drugs for the primary health care system; - reorient the national policy for education and human resource mobilization, and design and implement the corresponding reforms and operational strategies, in particulars (i) acceleration and improvement of training of trainers for technical schools; (ii) redynamisation of professional training as a function of market needs; and (iii) implementation of an emergency program of acquisition of basic supplies for primary and technical schools; - establish ptogram-budgets in all social sectors based on planning by objective, including a core social expenditure prog. *m for the poorest groups in the population; - design and implement a series of actions aimed at promoting self-creaced employment and the reinsertion into the private sector of laid-off civil servants and public enterprise employees, in particular through (i) technical and financial support for the creation of micro- enterprises; (ii) on-the-job training and short-cycle professional training, and support the implementation of these actions through setting up a fund for employment; - design and imp__nent the reforms and operational strategies corresponding to the national policy for the promotion of women, including (i) the revitalization of the urban - 105 - ANNMX v women, including (i) the revitalization of the urban structures of MINASCOF; (ii) a special support for women in the framework of the micro-enterprise creation program; and (iii) a program aimed at improving the productivity of women in rural areas. In order to achieve these objectives, the Government intends tot - reinforce the planning and coordination of socio-economic policy by (i) integrating distribution and employment components in the design of macroeconomic strategies; '4.i) reinforcing planning and coordination capacities of th. Ministry of Plan, in particular for integrating human resource strategies in the overall development strategy; (iii) reinforcing planning and programming capacities in all ministries in charge of the social dimensions of adjustment, in particular for the design and implementation of program-budgets; - improve the follow-up of the evolution of socio-economic conditions of the various population groups, through the implementation of a permanent household survey, and through the processing of available socio-economic statistics; - reinforce the process of participation of grass-roots organizations in socio-economic development, in particular through the establishment of a fund for community development. P. MONITORING THE STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAE To guarantee the success of the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP), the Govetnment has set up two structures: the Interministerial Council for the Supervision of the Structural Adjustment Program and the Technical Committee for the Preparation and Follow-up of this Program. a. the Interministerial Supervisory Council Under the authority of the Secretary-General of the Presidency of the Republic, the Interministerial Supervisory Council is responsible for implementing and supervising the implementation of SAP with International Organizations. The Council deals with all matters which relate directly or indirectly to programs negotiated with the International Monetary Fund (IMP), the World Bank and the African Development Bank. To that end, the Council follows up the implementation of government economic policy objectives and sectoral strategies. It initiates the necessary studies and programs of action. It coordinates the activities of various Ministries and follows up the implementation of the Government's plans of action. The Interministerial Supervisory Council works in close collaboration with the Commission for Public Enterprise - 106 - ANNEX V Rehabilitation, set up earlier and also placed under the authority of the Secretary-General of the Presidency. b. The Technical Counittee for the Prenaration and Follow-up of SAP The Technical Committee for the Preparation and Follow-up of SAP is responsible for the technical preparation, supervision and follow- up of SAP. It is also responsible for the supervision, preparation and implementation of the Social Dimensions of Adjustment (SDA) and the Economic Management Support (EMSP) projects. To that end, the Committee works in collaboration with the competent government services in preparing sectoral meetings. It is also responsible.for preparing periodic supervision reports for submission to the Interministerial Council for the supervision of SAP. Finally, the Committee is in charge of establishing summary tables incorporating the evolution of economic indicators. The Technical Committee of SAP works in close collaboration rith already existing structures such as the Technical Committee of the Commission for Public Enterprise Rehabilitation, the Technical Committee on Government arrears and the Technical Committee for the Review of the Program with IMF. c. Financial and Loidstical Support The reforms the Government is carrying out require considerable financial and logistical support. As such, the Economic Management Support Project is intended to back-up Government services more directly involved in the preparation, implementation and follow-up of SAP. The first phase of this project deals with the following areass - the preparation and monitoring of the Public Investment Program; - the reform of the national statistics system; - the management of the debt; and - the reform of the Civil Service. Further.nore, this project will make it possible to finance SAP - related studizs and projects identified in the course of implementing reforms. - 107- ANNEX V CONCLUSION In conclusion, stabilization, adjustment and revival are the basic components of the Development Strategy the Government intends to iLplement in the short and medium term. To this end, the reform program adopted within the context of this strategy aims especially at increasing production and expanding exports by improving the economic climate and the ability of the national economy to adjust to the international economic situation. Thus, particular attention is paid to such areas as agricultural production, the industrial processing of local raw materials, the development of infrastructures, the development of entrepreneurial skills and human resources. The forseeable impact of this vast program on the most vulnerable population groups (and the poorest) has led the Government to introduce a series of measures to take into account the social dimensions of the adjustment process. The financing of this Structural Adjustment Programme should be quantitatively and qualitatively satisfactory over a sufficiently long period, externally-generated funds being complemented by an increased mobilization of internal resources. Finally, it is important to emphasize that the conception and implementation of these strict but hope-inspiring measures will be achieved by maintaining the national consensus essential for the success of SAP. To that effect, the Government intends to sensitize the people, businessmen and the international community so that everyone may willingly and knowingly participate in Cameroon's recovery effort. PIMLtC FIEcI mEuCTI5 ACOS TANS t-SPOSED LMAS CALES,M I. PLAINUIN, PINRAMMIN AND UAW DOET a. Strothmlng of the lik btwen - Properation _c er of sdl_-tern In January at each yer, establishment of the Goemeat Wdget ueroscoaomle projectloe including the sarting In 1990 sad medlum-term m.crtecoemle prospects .Governmet's financial prorm, taking lte asecont the expendituree fttnaed by external resouree b. Fuller analysts of the public sector's - Dete0 rination of dote neds Irch 1999 np4et on th economy, taking lat account lnvstment, borroming and other - Sensitizatlon of public enterprises sut Septeber 1989 activities by pubile ente.prpl. setting up of a data-gathring system - Production of quarterly summary uarterly starting In miltoring tables January 1990 c. Strengthenins ot th projec planning - Preparation of projoct brieof, stoting Jul 1009 co and budgeting cycle tOo _re more economIc Justification, sourc of systetlo use of selection critera and financing, duration and lmplomwntation more tloxible mediumter plnning plon - Prepartion of a rolling four-yer Yearly In July lnavetment pin cmatible with available rourcs and debt and development strategies - Inclusion *s on *nnex te the Financ Yerly In July starting Low of the Investments for the tirst In 1989 year of the four-year progr broken down by project and by dooeetl� and external reourc a0 PUBLIC PUNCE OBJECTI ACTIONS TAKEN PROPOSED MASURE CALENSR d. lprovemt of monitoring of the Mo ntly emasry tables - Design and Implentabonof a system September 1906 execution of the Gove, newt budget In for th. quarterly moitornlg of the the courset the yer financial and pbysical prors of *Il invetment project *. mprovemnt Of t1. mgemnt of the Establishment of the Crles - Effective strup of CM's activtiles July 1w9o public debt Auto*m d'"Aorti ne (CM) and appointment of Its Board Charman ad Director Genral f. Establishment of a sructre and Establishment an start-up of - Prepaation of andrdize doc March 1o0 adoptlon of Improved ontract award Direction doe Gran Travax for public procurement procedre sled at reducln do C_mwon - DCTC adeistrative delays and the resulting (DireCtror of major Works) - Establishment of a training progrem tor Starting Apr1i 100 Gosts the pireonnl Involved in procuremt - Rbevoi of logslation regulating public Sepbember 1990 prour em t procdurens It. RESTORATION OF EQUILIRIUM IN BUEr ACCuWnS a. Reorientation of current exponditure Adoption of recurrent - Incorporation of thes levols In the July 199 In order to reesbtabish equilbrlim non-ags, oxpendituree lovels 1989/90 budget betwee the wage bill and expendituesx for the main econoice and on goods and s rvics ocial servico, and for Infrastructure maintenanc See Control of *bg S1il b. Settlement of significant armra Study of cross debts - Completion of study and devising of December 1909 *nd debt duo to public and betwon State and public plan for settlement of cros debte private enterprise enterprim underway - 110 - ANNEX VI I . a S1 7, U- j | fi tI ~i i I D .~~ - - |I | C | | iS 01- 5 "3 - 111 - ~~~~ANNEIVI | ! ! | ! ! � !^~~ sat s a I;. iXl i l ' "S - e. .1 A i ] -11} ; .}t,.|~~~~~~ CIVIL SIESCE REFRMI OBJECTIVE ACTIO TAKE POPOSEBD MASM CALESR 1. CONRL O WAGE SILL - Freening of Wa/selaries and - ConolldtIon of payroll control system kcme 1969 of fIpaninel ffect of (AntI oIp) prowetIon - Effective tranfr of otpplication of Jw. 1960 - Redctlo, of hiring Anti lope to Payroll Directorte - Purging of nonsletet - Periodic purging and updating of payroll Every two year starting employee trze payroll In Jmno 1969 (Anti lope) - Revision of eulation on early larcb 1960 - Reduction of embasy roirmt peoonel end closing ot nc botnl economic - Rvision Nd hnermo etlon of tVe arbch trad dalegtions ttute of vocatlonal training schools With a vies to limiting direc ac - tict application of the to the Civil Soervi ruiss vorn lrot ire1mt - Revision ot family allowance syste Dee_r 1959 - Reducon of allowancs for pereenal - Forsulation of a ne housing polly for Dcember 195 In categorl 9, C, and D publi employs. - Reform of th. systm for travel aN Jun 1"9 movlng *Ilowance - Forulatlon of a gawlI otrategy for September 1989 the orgintlon of aInistrils 1I - 113E -I lt | {! lSitx~~~~~ \ ||:l *�.1 1 1it*; jjj1|}iU -~~~~ui I d~~ | t!I CIVL SRVICE REN OJUCbtES ACTNS TAM PROPOSED l _ASURES CALDR U. CIL SERVICE POLICY Enhcam_ of the efficiency ot the Estails_nt of a Hlghr -Reie o the legal and pleatory Clvii Servic, by Implementation of * Institute of Public framork of the Civil Services NW perennl policy based o M_anagmet enluatlon of ldividual performnc * Haoniation pof al nd n" 1990 eW improvemen et peonnel man"nt - Computeriation of certan special Staff Regulations management functions *Ssty and impleantetion of a new December 100 remuneratIon policy tq - on rvIeloo et pay selso ellowenee bewnee ead benefits In kind linked to )mdividulo perormane * Deinition of caree plane Deber 1o0n * Estabi ont of a prcetion system Decmber 19D based on caeer delopmet plane J on better dfinition of preosMoonal repesb I itice - Inventory ot national e pititle by De_embr 1990 level (f le) - Rwitaliation of the professional De-emer 10 training pogram conned with corer devolopsmnta o Trininl Intitutee, 5 Training program *Planin of training abroad3 C- cmIVL SERICE MP= OBJE E ACTII M PTAMWAS Cl_R - R.ft.r ad c.p.ta=tIon of pr omeI D.c_mb.w I9 Noi.mst (Payeoe$ I Dfstcr.ord NW Traouy1, NIM, Poro_nel Dlroctorat on of o0tow u1st.lr.l.)z * Evllo. of pams bre aw * SE.obItd1m. ot nan monal el.aosh)ps b_tsog UDW/ CE aSn tX. amor alma. itAn *Trelansg of monepmw* sO c- PUBLIC ENTERPRISE REIFORM OBJECTIVES ACTIONS TAKEN PROPOSED MEASURES CAR a. Reductlon of th. coat of th s*etor for - Establishment of the Mission - Preperatlon of r.habtiltation piano and Under wny pubile ftI _ or Pubile Enterprio draft prorm4nce contrats tor each Rehabilitation enterprise - Study of cross debt - Signature of perorman contracts September 1989 beten the Stat. end the OffIce - lagnostic study of 76 Cor llor, SODECAO. HEVICAM. ONCPD, enterprle constituting the SONEL. SEC. SOCAPALM heavioet burden on pubile tinancer (priority broup) - Completion of negotiation of Ocember 199 performance oontrect with donor DOieloml to he tokens participation for CAVMA, MAETU "at,U REOIFPIRCA SODECOTON, CDC, 10 to be liquidated SOWUC, CaT and MIDENO o 0 to be privatized o SC to be rehabilitated - Signture of performance ceontrects for April I19 the enterprie. It ind abovo ENTERPRISES TO lr, L.4IDATED: 0' AppointOmnt of liquidator - Appointment of tiquidators for MEAL and September 1969 for SODEBLE, SODENKAM, WAMA MDen, CNaE ENTERPRISES TO SE PRIVATIZED: foemcement of a stdy on a Estabil Mnt of a loea frmew ork for Decomber 1989 privatisation strtoy privattiation - Prepration of *ation plas for the March 1990 partial or compete set, of the six entrprios to be privstize - Preperatlon of an actlon plan and Decembr 169m achedules for negotlotion of management contract for certain enterprise remlalng In tho Government'e portfolio PUBLC EMTuPRIsE REUM OJECTSm ACTIONS TAKEN PROPOSEG MEASMES CALEAR ENIERRIES NU UDED DiN THE PRIItm ROW; - Preratlon of diagnle stdi for Doember 19 abo*t 60 entepises - Claelticatlon by the lntrm lneriml March 1990 Coemi hee, - Prepeatlon of rehab Ilttion pian Jun 1990 b. MInimiotlon of ocl lmpct C e t of a study o - Etablishment of compenery m re Janry 1090 the silsle hkmn aN a I lowanc") fiasnelal i1pact of PE restucturing plon Nd - Etablishment of retrelaing mosures or Jonuay 1790 liquidation step. denlned to provid. aIternative souress of *mployent or lneogo - Start of Implementation of the January q 9 measurs c. Improvement of the porformn of REFORM OF THE LEGAL AND enterprPs remaining In the Government INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRMT portfolio - Study of logpl and - Introduction of general regulatlons GOSmbo 1989 Institutional environment rgulating and oranising public sector conernino Govrnmnt/publIc entorprisee ond stabilthment enterprise relations - Revision of statutes of enterprises March 190 - Start of a study on th retained In the Govprnment's portfolio tormulotlon of a ratio"l policy on govrnnt - Adoption of lgislatlon on govnme t Dosoer 1989 InvOstment in enterpries investment In nnterprieso - 118 - AtV a Ii I . 'ii F1p . . S | t i'. I !Iigl FDWNCIAL A IMUIM SECTOR OBJECMES ACTIONS TAKEN PROID WEAStES CALESR *. estructuring of distresse banks to - CeopleOlon by consultonts - Appotmt .f Admimlstreteur September 13 resore their fInancial ad oprtitonal (CMS) of diagnotic study, Provlsolir for Cambnk*, SW and fOMAUME viablityl liquIdatlon of others to contlaing cortain stop thoir Ilssos .d ratimllse the rseosmdattlin on the banking - Prepration and adoptlon of liquidation Varcb 10 structure of the banking system system plIa for aboe thr banks - Audit of ined banks - Prrtlon of rtrctWrlng plea for D_ember 1990 - Delisions takens o to liquldate Canbank, BC - Joint prep ration with foreion peatoors Vsrch IO an FOMAE sow adoption of restructuring pIln for mixed beoks (lD, SIK, SUC. BICIC. *t restrutre sow mie SWc.) beks - Joist prepartion with foreign perr December 130 of a plig for retncwtlrng or liquidating mar - Iple.eet.tiea of restructuring or O _cembr 190 l1quidatlIn ploa ftor beak b. Resolving the liquidity erisio of the - Negotiatioe ad signature of - Signature of settlemet convntion September 16 bonking system protocols of agr et with with retasiing ensrp dito the majority of the overnwl 'a main creditors - Nsoialtioen with KAC for the March 1900 consolidatlon of sees banking dabt, - Signature of stti n including arprars on crep credit e9reaset In prog - Initiation of egotaltlons with EAC to Jun 139 sxplore posslbilty of finanisl assistance for bonking retrcturing FINACIAL AM BADCIN SECTOR OBJECTIMES ACTIOS TAtEN PROPOSED MEASIRES CALSOM c. Rotor of th crop crdltsystem - Formultion oft comp_res1v financing Starting with O9/90 sob. covering each crop (fillonr), campaig taking Into account EAC'c dwcision to li1-t tUe provilson of crop credit to oxpncte oxport receiptO - eficit of tho U8/99 camp to be As the cmpelgn wind1 up covered by: * ONCP" on account of garateed prodcer priee (coffee, coco) * tho State on account of credits guaranteed by It (cotton) d. Strengthening of bonking control by - Strengthening of the KAC - Greater emphasis o reliability and Annul review starting the supervisory authorities Inspection unit underway tilmilnss ot finaaciol reorting November 19W *Ince LW?. More frequnt by the banks Inepwetion vieits to priary 0 banks with collaboratlon of - Inteiication of controls a" Annul nriew starting Finance Ministry Inspectors inspection missions by BEAC and Finance November IW Mlnistry - ntltutlon of a systm of ppropriatO Annal rewiw starting penaties for iregolaritian or November I1U violatlos - Strict oppiletlon of bankling Following banking prudentlil ratio (lqulidity and restrwcrlng capital adeqacy) - Systmatlizalon of Internal cheks Permnnt organle by the primary bnoks FDMCAL AD BAWIC0 SECTOR OBECTIVES ACTtONS tAKS PROPOSED MEASURE CALENAR *. Improwvemen of loat recovery - Streng1eirqg ad loplemai tion of To nitisto be.or. logilativeo regulatory and Decembr 16S9 adinistrativo smer" to lmprovo bank loen rcovory f. Adaptation of tax system to - Studles with a view to elIateo1 or March t990 specific circumat.nces of the reduce certain txes applclabl, to banking sector hokintg operations (DC, ICAIt IPCRN) - Flocrl and adinistirntive ooeure to March 1090 facllitate provisions for bad debt g. Improvement of proftabilitty of MLal terlol Decr of April - 4dual nd seloctlvo Incrase In Annual review starting finncial Institutions to Incease 1909 setting nw banking banking *argln November 1990 their *sIf-finaning capability conditions - Eventual liberaiortiton of intorent Annual revli starting rates and banking margins taking Into November 1990 account fIonanlin nesd of the ecnomy NEDZW AN LOW TERM h. Prograsve eilminalton of credit - Consltations with BEAC, IF RD and No _vemr 1989 Ceillns ADS wth a view to gradual elilination of ce dit cilings 1. Estabiishmet of a finatnil and mony - tn consltatlon with MACm, tMo BR Following tbh mrket to deepen fitnnctal and ADB, review of studies on setting retructuriag of benks Intermn diaton and provide a up of a money market In Cnmroon suIpeentary source of fi ancing to SEAC rediscounting - Initiatlon of a otudy on setting up a Following the financiol market restructuring of banks Ic - 122 - . NEVI t~~~ i w8{Sj i ' I g ~I It j' i'"ig |~' fi I - [' "~~~~ ~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~ ; a S -123- .ARM VI I! . I I ! | |i I ~~~~~~~I *1 I X t i i a lh |~~ ~ j i'i %l 02 i t8P1 11$i� Ss~~ I1 - ! l'~~~~~~~~~1 '~ Bii aa ;4I 0 - 124 - *ANNKXBVl !�i -I- O1gii* ' i ;llj ; ki�tEtt l il .~ ~~~~~~.~ . .i . g~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ';' ;'ti fa g~~~~~~ : , i1 *. [ I I ; S DUSR IAL AI COMMERCIAL hECThR OBJCT1IVE3 ACTIONS TAKEN PRPO EDMAUJRES CALENMOA 1. IWIESTWM AND EXPORT PROMOTION a. Promotion ot compe1ttve Industrial - Revlsion of the Investmst Cod. Do_embr 1090 tnvetet ?crdin n to the A stretgy - Ell-leationoi expert taxOs on all July 1990 b. provemet of export lncetive. produ excqt lop Fina1c Low 10/ - Flmliation of torm of referceso d July 10W ftilnno for sty of xport lACIti vo and potential - Formlation of an settee prorm on November 11 besic of the ebove stdy II. LIBsUZATON OF TtADE AND PMICV *. Proresslve eliminalon of quantitative Study on tho system of tariff - Ell-ination ot We for as inttial group Jun 16 (POE 09) restrictlons on lipors and non-ri"f protection of product. Establishment of a sebedule - Legislation elllmitng mport licene.1 Jun 169 (PME S9) for p t Io110ntion tor product ot subject to ,ts - Elblation of . tor a o group Febrry 10 (PE 00) of poduct - Supplementary sty on Ps for strategic good. (ago-industry. t0 etle.) o Completion et study Now mber 10909 o tabiishmsnt of atlon plan January 10 - ElimInation of Va for * third group Jarury 1001 E 1001) of products MNUSTRAL AND COMMERCtAL SECTOR OBJECTIVES ACTIONS TAMlE PROPOSED MWASURE CAUAR b. Lliberaliation of prics and morgins Rodctlon of nue_er of - Limitaleti of price control to a vry Jun 19S9 produ or group of short list of good SW se"lce, product. subjoct to prlor Including som goods subjc"t to On. approval from 7 to 86 In January 1989 - L.gloletion oliminating cytom of trade Jun 199 errln control for . l goodsb ad EasIng of aproval procedurs services oCt sbjoct to Ps or WpwIorl by dropping inelorial pric, approval approval repiremn - Libe rlistion op prels *nd margins Februry 190 Establishment op a schdedlo for a second group of gods to tandm for libsraliatio. of prices with P elimination and m*rgins on al1 goods an s*rvlee e *x t for a short - Llbsr.liastlon ot prices and margin Januory 1991 llot of besic pods tor a third group of podstaneo m wlth 4P elImInation a. Prevention of possiblo wndelrblo - Institution of a statistical inttoring June 1198 offeets of trade liberallsatlon system of prices and eo p tltlon - Artrrly review starting October SW d. GunrAnt of free accoes to 1 stag oe f p- Revlion ot Law B0/26 o' cemsrlal Docember 1969 trod. activity *. Guarante op free competition to Study of comptstition aN - PrweratIon of logslation rleltin March 1990 consmres odvantog rketing chanle conpton end ccpstltloan - Rovision of Co_erelil Code (including commrclal leae, leasing, Zet.) o Start of work Ster 19 o Prlliolnry version Juns 1910 o Flnal toxt Mareh 1911 a Adoption Dosceber 1991 ND4USThIAL N COeCIAL SCTO OBJECTrYE ACTIOS TAMEN PRWOSE lASWS CAUM m.RnATINALATU ON OF TAX 1W.ENTWES *. EsUb5ielut_t of a systa of tariff - Eetablishmmt throug the TCI of a July 1990 pr.tction with podrat. Vates and tiani Import tariff 1990/91 finr La disperlon - Reduction throuo the T of the Jy 1990 a1ms. OUIulVtIvo Import teriff rate 190 Finance La - Support for rotom process un,ar oy In In prog IeC rgoprding'EC nd indirect teastion b. Simpilflation aN heroolimtion of the - Abolition of the TCA, RU anWd TIP 1991/90 flal regim linked to lntrodwbion of VAT as pert of Coemnity-wids t laotic CAC) A IV. REWnATRY E_N S a. Modarnixoston of legt framork Start of work on the drafting Prepertlon of Company Code for businoes of Cempany Cods o Prellmnatry wverlon Sept_er 198 o Adebtion ecembr IM9 - Legislation on enterprises In difficulty Decem r 19 - Legsltion on nternorprise Doc_er 199 partnerships (public and private) - Legislation on internatlonal trade Jun 1990 dumping end arbitrage b. Reducblon et regulatory restritions on Start of work - Rwision of labor logislation (Labor December 2990 1 0 , Cods) � WART AND SICIIM OBJECTIE ACTIONS TAXEN PROPOSE MEASU CALENiM a. Impovmut of cost recovery - Raising of rod tome for beavy Financ Law (July 1M vehicles end port and eirport txes b. Ma1ntwenal of prqaet lnfratrucure Estb1ishment of Road - lnir"osng of budgetary appropriations Fl_nmc Low (July 19M intenanco Dlrecorate In for roa _Intnrneo ministry of PZlic Work and Trnsport c. I _provemot of P.rtor of a*r - Study on coaplotlon of YeounWl-.izion sector by Incrmning the return on nw *Irport to limit lnysetiat lnvetmnt eXPenditunre and miniise recurrent coots - ber stuly (rshabtllttton, July-Os log flne.., orpnlstion aN magament) of th, irport aed air navlation sector - Study of creation of autonom airport Jan-June 10 _anaga t companles, and dlculon of U stuy with partie concerrned aF C- w~ sanw AcTIVEC ACTIONS TAKE PROPOSED WME CAWrNA t. uuRW,Mi OF DITUTMAL, PPWGIAL N LEAL FRAI_ OF WN SECTOR *. uptvemnt of 1ategotie of Cetion of a Coordinaion - Udrtaking of stuiIe on the econmic to accftlance wilt the urbn opetlons with the economic Committe to sprvise the dvl.p.nt of th main regional cetoe calendr establised development Of the caunry IeIpmetation of the urban under the %econd U1ban strategy a coordilato the - Identficatio of priority Intveetnnt Project work of the ditfernt parties with a vew, to strengthening the tnolved ecoomic rolo of thee. centrs - Properatlon of a rolling investmen progna for the urA* Vector b. Improvemsnt of esource mobilization Study underway for ilmpoving - Approval Nd - ipIentetion of the VW strsogtsbning of mniclpelilties' amulelpl finne mobion plans cmed in the stuy flncal technical capcitiet on municipal financ Strtlig of a featbility study on establishent of - Productlon of ltipupoe mpg sith a a rel estate tax vies to stabililhing. tea cea otre - Start of applicatio of recondlaonw of study on rel estat tex c. Improvemet of functioning of rel Ratlonalizatlon of land - Strenothning of capacity of Property setate mrke *ad of managemnt of registration irectorete rtegdIng Isue and Stat, larns registration of reel estate property titles UAmN SECTOR OSECmES AMUCNS TAMP PRIPOIID MEASES UCA AR - :nvontory and dellmitetion of State lands - Estabiltef_nt and impl_.entation of meaurse to obtain the b_t return frow d. Devlop_nt of rolo private oot.r Progreslive *lImination of - uajrnt.o sectr operator. _ccs to and munlclp.lIti.o In Wte dav.lopmeet subsidies to pubilc the land e for their devloplm an using constrcion enterprisee In the housing prog and rel estate devlopmet sectors - lEtablishment of rogutery (spe.tficaloae) and financial (coot recovry) mechanieams tht "Ould enabl- the private setor and municipalitIes to carry out developmnt opertion - Esbilshment of mwecanlm deigne to expnd CFC'o calletele to includ mnlelpolitl. and privat operators I C: WATER, ERG AND MIN4 SECTORS oJECTE ACTrIO TAKEN PROPOSER MEASRES CAWA I. WATER AND SANITAnON . Esure adqae drinking vater supply - R.hbbllltato.n Plan for SNEC - Signature of a performanee contrc September 1989 whle sfewe 3 SNEC's financial comoleted betwoee the Goverieat and SNEC viab1ilty - About 100 urbn contere - Adoption of lega t1t for application J ry 160 supplied with drinking watr of the wate lasa, Including a llWter Code - Nationnl Water Comittee (OIlE) eob up - Draing up and apOlcattoi of a Wtr June 10 Sply Retor Plan - Effoctlv strt up of the National Octobwr 1M Water Comittee b. Establishment of on deque ystem of - Drw u ot a Naoal Sanitation Plan J enitatlon (ap a*nd rein watr) - Study on the establ iamot of June 150 proprit structure for the ManaaMAfnte operation aN finaneing of eanlttion program RURAL Supply drinking wvter to viilloag Eotablishment of policy to eourage DOember Su9e emuanitlte partiecpation by the rural population In the construction, operation and Maintenance of drinking water upply fact I itine - Studios aid t the *Otndardizatlon of Deember 169 eui_met and the adaptlotn of technology to the *ocio-conoele setting Whm, EDwY Am VNO SCtORs OSJECTZE ACTIONS TAM RPOSW MEASURE cLE 11. ENERGY AM THE EWVRMENT a. Exploration and optimal utilization of van oi nao l ery reour * Enorgy planning - Drawi up of a - Restructuring of SOL to hmproe it. September lo9 Roabhllitation Plan for SON.L managemnt and bettor adapt Its objectives to Its f lmeisf reuc - Eiblisheot of n eoroy within the fracowork of a Performance planing wnit Contract - Complet Phas 1 of eney planning oesmber 1m "t" * Energy consrvatloe * Pel iminary tWdise on enrgy - Adoptlio of enrgy conservtlac eseras JanuI. 1A0 coneervtion o Olwnerifteatios of nry souree - SUdies of rnw Nd ren_wble - Delopment of ne Nd r_eeable enorgy Jsnwry 190 enrgy ources Cbiopa, sources in *ae without triltlonal deircel. solar ad wind) enery supplies * Ioprvemet In the present OPL - Technle l/econote stdise of - Estbishment of sn Integrated Pt January 199t distribution system so improvod systm of disrbutilo, network dmWti ge distribution b. N.ormwilotion an monitorlng of the - Rogulaltion m. oral studies, - stablishment of an effective June 19J0 eloctricIty sow petrolem producta monitoring struture seubobore c. PRvitalization of hydrocarbons soctor - Drawing up of a National Gas - Adoption of the Natlonal 0Ga Plan September 10M Plan - Updating of mining logialetion. December 1989 - Neotiation for resming redelnition of petroleum polki med petrolu aeploration at offerlo Incenties to oxplorston*, In particuler through Impro*40ee to the toras offered to the petrole : companies VATER, ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS OBJECTIVES ACTIONS TAKEN PROPOSED MEASURES CALENDAR d. Normaization and monitoring almd at - Study of the establish_t of - Adoption of normti ve enviror nta DeC_ember 1989 environ mtal protection a pollution control laboratory standards - Adoption of legislation on Industrial Jun. 1990 waste tIX.MZNINO a. Developmnt of solid mineral A4erves - Study on Iron and bauxite - Review of legol texto governing the March 1990 mIneo and on rehbilitation granting of oxploration permits and of of the coasiofrite mIne ming conceelions for solid minerals (Iron, bauxite, gold, rutilo) - Setting up of pIlot gsod ard - Studies on facilltating certain mining November 1989 rutile prodvetlon anits operations (ehalk, gold, cobalt, nickel, diamegd ) b. Upgrading of gological and mining - Partiol Inventory of national - Preparatlon of geological aps Juno 1990 Informxtion territory lUNAR RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ACTIONS TAKEN PROPOSED MEASURES CALENDAR a. Dofinition of nor Education-Training - Promigation of policy documents To be defined upon the and Population-Hoalth poliies and completion of the SPA oloboration of operational strategiss - Elaboration and a s esmnt of npprolaal mission with greater emphiaeu on Improved strategies In the Education-Training scheduled for June 19M quality with a vies to better respond and Health-Population areas to the country's future developmnt needs b. Choice of investment. in accordance - Multi-year rolling invetsent progams July 1969 with the prioritieo set In the Health (budget-program framework) and Education sector strategieo c. Ensure the provision of basic services - Increasing budgetary allocation, for July 1989 in the Education and Health sectors basic equipment In these sectors (Finance Low) - Improvement in cost recovwry To be defined upon the emplotion of the SPA approisal mission scheduled for Juno 1989 z z c SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF ADJUSTMENT 08JECTIVES ACTIONS TAKEN PROP0OED MEASURES CALENDAR a. Protection of vulneoable groups *nd Setting up of five working Establishing and implementing an To be defined upon the assistance to redundant workers group s Health-Population- emergency program to provide basic completion of the SPA offected by economic reforms measure" Soclal Security; Employment; material assistance and equipment to appraisal mission Educatlon; Women in Devlocpment the health and eduetion sectors scheduled for June 1989 and Institutlonal Development for the preparatlon and - Search for appropriato policies and appraisal of the SDA project mesnures for the implementation of thc new population policy Establishment of an SOA Fund to provide operational - Implomnting a rties of priority support to the five working actions to enourag Income generating groups activities and to assist the reinsertion of redundant pubile and Es tbi lemnt of a Project parostatal agents Into the private Preparation Fne11tty to sector finance studies and c_munity lvel pilot projects b. Supporting and strengthe"nng th - Deovlopment and Implementation of partielpatlon of the poor In future strotegies to enhance the role of groth Women In Development - Establishing * Fund for Employmnt and a Fund for Community Developmnt c. Iproving the planning and coordination - Incooration of the ocial dimensions of soclo- eonomic policy In the development of macro-economic prognrms and strategies - Improved monitoring of household living conditlono and b sic tncie-economic Indicators