Knowledge Brief Health, Nutrition and Population Global Practice BASIC PROFILE OF CHILD MARRIAGE IN ETHIOPIA Chata Malé and Quentin Wodon March 2016 Child Marriage Series with Education Global Practice KEY MESSAGES:  Measures of child marriage remain high in Ethiopia. The share of women ages 18-22 who married as children is 36.4 percent, but this share has declined very substantially over time. The share of girls marrying very early, before the age of 15, has also declined.  Child marriage is associated with lower wealth and lower education levels. These are however only correlations, not necessarily causal effects. In order to design programs and policies to reduce child Box 1: Brief and Series Primer marriage, information is needed on the trend in the How is child marriage defined? Child marriage is defined as a practice over time, where it is most prevalent in a country, marriage or union taking place before the age of 18. and what the characteristics of girls marrying early are. Why a series on child marriage? Child marriage has Measuring child marriage is needed to inform policy. significant negative impacts – not only for girls, but also for a range of development outcomes. Demonstrating these impacts Child marriage is recognized as a major development will assist governments and others to make the case for intervening to reduce the practice. issue that affects girls in many developing countries. The practice has been linked to a number of health risks, What are the topics discussed in the series? The series higher fertility, and lower education attainment, among looks at the impacts of child marriage on health, population, others. The negative impact of child marriage on a wide education, employment, agency, and violence, among other range of development outcomes explains why in many outcomes. The welfare, budget, and non-monetary costs of child countries child marriage is now prohibited by law, and marriage are estimated. Legal/institutional aspects and options why the elimination of child marriage is part of the new to reduce the practice are also discussed. Sustainable Development Goals. Yet more is needed to eliminate the practice than adopting laws. In order to What is the question asked in this brief? The question is: How widespread is the practice, not only in terms of the share of inform program and policies to reduce the practice, this girls marrying early, but also in terms of how early they marry? brief provides a basic profile of child marriage in Ethiopia. The brief is part of a series of standardized briefs on this How is the question answered? Measures and a profile of topic for several countries. child marriage inspired by the literature on poverty are provided. Page 1 HNPGP Knowledge Brief  More than a third of women in Ethiopia marry early. but it will also have other negative consequences for her as well as for her children. The analysis is based on data from the 2011 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Ethiopia. This Most studies on child marriage report the incidence of is the latest DHS available. Table 1 provides basic child marriage - the share of girls who marry early (before statistics on the age at first marriage for women. Two 18), sometimes also with the share of girls who marry samples are considered: women ages 18 to 22, which is very early, before age 15. Such statistics are useful, but the youngest age group that can be used to measure they do not capture the “depth” and “severity” of the child marriage in the country1, and women ages 18-49 practice very well. Better measures of child marriage can (the women’s questionnaire in the DHS collects data for be adopted from the poverty literature (Ngyuen and women up to age 49). Clearly, a large share of women Wodon (2012). Three measures are used here: the marry below the age of 18, and some do so before the incidence of child marriage or headcount index, the child age of 15. But there are also relatively important marriage gap, and the squared child marriage gap. differences in the likelihood of marrying as children Definitions of these measures is provided in the annex. between the two groups. This suggests that child The measures are estimated for child marriage as well as marriage has decreased substantially over time. very early marriage defined as marrying before age 15. Table 1: Age at First Marriage for Women (%) The child marriage gap represents the “depth” of child 18-22 years 18-49 years marriage. It takes into account not only the share of girls Not Married 47.2 16.5 who marry early, but also the mean number of years of 18 or Above 16.4 28.6 early marriage. When using the child marriage gap for the Below 12 2.5 6.5 evaluation of programs or policies, instead of simply 12 2.3 4.6 looking at the share of the girls who marry early, more 13 3.2 6.1 14 5.2 7.5 weight is placed on the girls who marry at a very young 15 8.0 13.0 age. While the child marriage gap takes into account the 16 7.8 9.0 average number of years of early marriage for girls who 17 7.5 8.1 marry early, the squared gap takes into account the Total 100.0 100.0 square of that number, thereby putting even more Mean age at first marriage 16.0 16.4 emphasis on girls who marry very early and taking into Source: Authors’ estimation. account inequality in the age of marriage among girls marrying early. The consequences of child marriage are not the same whether girls marry at 12 or 17. Measures inspired from The incidence of child marriage in Ethiopia in 2011 was the poverty literature help in capturing better how early substantially lower than that observed 25 years ago. girls marry (see the annex). The headcount (H) measures There has been a big reduction in how early girls marry, the share of girls who marry early. The child marriage gap but the incidence is still high. (CMG) measures the “depth” of the practice, taking into account how early girls marry. The squared gap (SG) puts Child marriage has been reduced over time. even more weight on the girls who marry very early. Table 2 provides trends over time in the measures of child Beyond the share of girls who marry early, other marriage inspired by the poverty literature. Consider first measures of child marriage are also important. the age group 18-22. In that age group more than one third of girls marry before the age of 18 (36.4 percent for The negative impact of child marriage for a girl’s health, the 18-22 age group). The child marriage gap (CMG) is at education, and well-being is often larger when the girl 6.6 percent and the squared gap (SG) at 1.6 percent for marries very early. For example, child marriage is known that group. By estimating the same measures on older to have a negative impact on school enrollment and groups, the table provides the trend in child marriage over attainment. The earlier a girl marries, the more likely it is time. When considering the 18 years threshold, there has that she will drop out early and thereby have a low level of been a substantial decline in the headcount, and a decline education attainment. This will not only limit her (in proportional terms) in other measures, suggesting that employment and earnings potential for the rest of her life, girls tend to marry much less early when they marry as children. Nevertheless, the incidence remains fairly high. 1 Child marriage measures must be estimated on the population older than 18, because some younger girls not yet married in the The fact that girls who marry early may marry less early is survey could still get married by age 18. It is best to measure confirmed by the measures based on the 15 years age child marriage as early as possible after the age of 18 to provide threshold which suggest a substantial decline as well in data on conditions as current as possible, which is why the age the headcount for those measures. Overall, the share of bracket 18-22 is used here. Page 2 HNPGP Knowledge Brief  girls marrying as children has decreased by about half (35 Household welfare is measured through a wealth index percentage points) over the last 25 years, the with households categorized in five quintiles from poorest approximate time gap between the first and last age to richest. For most women the level of wealth observed is group. The decline for extreme child marriage (15 years that of the household in which they married, not their threshold), is almost 25 percentage points2. household or origin, but it is likely that many women marry with men who have similar socio-economic profiles, so the Table 2: Trend in Child and Very Early Marriage (%) quintile after marriage may not be that different from the 18 years 15 years quintile before. Also, for younger women, assets and H CMG SG H CMG SG wealth may be lower than for older women. In Ethiopia, All 18-49 years 54.9 11.5 3.2 24.8 4.5 1.1 the measures of child marriage differ substantially by Age group quintile, but it is only in the top two quintiles of wealth that 18-22 years 36.4 6.6 1.6 13.2 2.1 0.5 child marriage is much less prevalent. 23-30 years 55.0 11.2 3.1 22.9 4.2 1.1 31-40 years 63.8 14.0 4.0 31.5 5.7 1.4 41-49 years 71.0 16.3 4.8 38.0 6.9 1.7 Table 4: Child Marriage by Quintile, Age 18-22 (%) Source: Authors’ estimation. 18 years 15 years H CMG SG H CMG SG Girls are more likely to marry early if they live in rural All 18-22 years 36.4 6.6 1.6 13.2 2.1 0.5 Wealth quintiles areas and are from poorer socio-economic groups. Poorest 52.5 9.8 2.4 20.2 3.1 0.7 Poorer 50.9 9.4 2.4 18.1 3.2 0.8 Child marriage is more prevalent in rural than in urban Middle 42.8 8.0 2.1 17.2 2.7 0.7 areas. There are also differences between regions, with Richer 32.2 5.9 1.5 12.1 2.0 0.5 the lowest measures observed in Addis Ababa and the Richest 19.5 3.0 0.6 5.3 0.7 0.1 highest measures observed (according to the headcount Source: Authors’ estimation. index for the 18 years threshold) in Benishangul-Gumuz and Affar, followed by the Somali, Amhara, Gambela and Child marriage is associated with lower education Tigray regions. Child marriage is less prevalent in SNNP. attainment and a lower likelihood of literacy. The ranking of regions in terms of the measures obtained with the 15 and 18 years thresholds tends to be different. Table 5 provides data on child marriage by level of education of the women, as well as literacy. Child Rural girls are twice more likely to marry early than urban marriage affects education attainment negatively, girls. Girls from the bottom four quintiles of wealth are because girls often drop out of school when they marry. much more likely to marry than girls from the top quintile. The causality goes the other way as well, as the ability to pursue one’s education may help delay the age at marriage. This relationship between education and child Table 3: Child Marriage by Location, Age 18-22 (%) marriage is apparent in the data, in that the measures of 18 years 15 years child marriage tend to be higher among women with lower H CMG SG H CMG SG levels of education. The same relationship is observed All 18-22 years 36.4 6.6 1.6 13.2 2.1 0.5 when considering literacy where three categories are Region Tigray 38.7 6.3 1.4 13.8 1.7 0.3 considered: the woman cannot read at all, can read part Affar 55.6 8.9 1.8 15.3 1.8 0.3 of a sentence, or can read a full sentence. Amhara 48.9 11.2 3.4 25.7 4.9 1.3 Oromiya 36.0 5.6 1.2 10.2 1.4 0.2 The relationship between child marriage and schooling is Somali 49.5 6.9 1.2 7.6 0.8 0.1 important for policy as the causality goes both ways. Child Benishangul-Gumuz 59.7 10.5 2.7 18.5 3.4 0.9 marriage may lead to dropouts and lower education SNNP 24.8 3.4 0.6 5.4 0.5 0.1 attainment. But the reverse is true as well: keeping girls in Gambela 47.1 8.5 2.1 16.5 2.5 0.6 Harari 34.5 5.5 1.2 9.7 1.3 0.2 school is often one of the best ways to delay marriage. Addis Ababa 10.8 1.3 0.2 1.7 0.2 - Dire Dawa 26.6 3.7 0.7 4.6 0.7 0.2 Marrying between the ages of 15 and 17 tends to affect Residence primarily secondary education enrollment or completion, Urban 17.5 2.8 0.7 5.6 0.8 0.2 and may not necessarily affect the completion of primary Rural 43.9 8.0 2.0 16.2 2.6 0.6 Source: Authors’ estimation. Values rounding to 0.0 not shown. education. But marrying even earlier can also prevent girls from completing their primary education (primary school takes in principle six years to complete, but some students start primary school late and may also repeat grades, so the actual age of completion may be delayed). 2 These measures have standard errors (not shown to save space). Some differences may not be statistically significant. Page 3 HNPGP Knowledge Brief  Table 5: Child Marriage by Education Level and Conclusion Literacy Status, Age 18-22 (%) 18 years 15 years This brief has provided a basic profile of child marriage in H CMG SG H CMG SG Ethiopia. Measures of child marriage remain high. The All 18-22 years 36.4 6.6 1.6 13.2 2.1 0.5 share of women ages 18-22 who married as children is Education 36.4 percent, but it has declined substantially over time. No education 62.2 12.5 3.3 27.0 4.6 1.1 The share of girls marrying very early, before the age of Some primary 32.6 5.3 1.2 9.4 1.4 0.3 15, has also declined. Other measures of child marriage Primary compl. 19.3 3.3 0.8 6.2 1.1 0.2 have declined as well over the last 25 years. Child Some secondary 15.7 2.0 0.3 3.2 0.3 - Secondary compl. 16.8 1.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 - marriage is associated with lower wealth and lower Higher 6.1 0.9 0.2 3.1 0.2 - education levels. It is not associated with lower or higher Literacy labor force participation, but it is associated with work Cannot read 55.3 10.6 2.8 22.7 3.7 0.9 without cash earnings. These are however only Limited ability 34.7 5.1 1.0 6.7 0.9 0.1 correlations, not necessarily causal effects. Other briefs in Full sentence 18.5 3.0 0.7 5.5 0.9 0.2 this series look at potential causal effects. No card available 29.2 4.4 0.9 9.2 1.0 0.2 Source: Authors’ estimation. Values rounding to 0.0 not shown. References Relationships between child marriage and labor force Foster, J., J. Greer, and E. Thorbecke, 1984, A Class of participation can be complex and depend on context. Decomposable Poverty Measures, Econometrica 52: 761–776. Table 6 provides data on labor force participation. In Nguyen, M. C., and Q. Wodon, 2012, Measuring Child Marriage, some countries child marriage may reduce labor force Economics Bulletin 32(1): 398-411. participation through higher fertility. In others, if child marriage is associated with poverty, women may leave Annex: Methodological Note little choice but to work. Other effects could be at work, so The headcount index, child marriage gap, and squared child that the relationship between child marriage and labor marriage gap are the first three measures of the so-called FGT force participation is complex. In Ethiopia, child marriage class (Foster et al., 2014). Denote by q the number of girls who measures are fairly similar among women who work and marry early and by n the number of girls in the overall those who do not. In addition, the type of work associated population. Denote by yi the age of marriage of girl i and by z most with child marriage is work without cash earnings, the age threshold defining child marriage (18 years of age, but a which may be work with low productivity. These basic lower age threshold can also be used to measure extreme child statistics however do not imply causality. marriage). The general formula for the FGT class of measures depends on a parameter α which takes a value of zero for the Table 6: Child Marriage by Labor Force Participation headcount, one for the child marriage gap, and two for the squared child marriage gap in the following expression: Status, Age 18-22 (%)  1 q  z  yi  P    18 years 15 years n i1  z  H CMG SG H CMG SG All 18-22 years 36.4 6.6 1.6 13.2 2.1 0.5  Working No 36.9 6.4 1.5 11.7 1.9 0.4 This brief was produced as part of the Economic Impacts of Child Yes 36.1 6.7 1.7 14.4 2.3 0.5 Marriage study, a joint project of the International Center for Research Type of work on Women (ICRW) and the World Bank, which is supported by the Bill & Not paid 43.1 8.9 2.5 20.0 3.4 0.9 Melinda Gates Foundation and the Children’s Investment Fund Cash only 28.9 4.7 1.0 9.9 1.2 0.2 Foundation (CIFF). More details on the research can be found at the Cash and in-kind 35.1 6.1 1.6 11.1 2.1 0.5 project’s website: www.costsofchildmarriage.org. Partial funding for the In-kind only 51.8 10.8 2.9 26.7 4.2 0.9 work related to child marriage and education, labor force participation, earnings, and program responses has been provided by the Global Source: Authors’ estimation. Partnership for Education. Comments from Jeff Edmeades and Margareta Norris Harrit are gratefully acknowledged. The opinions expressed in this brief are those of the authors only and need not reflect the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, of the countries they represent. The Health, Nutrition and Population Knowledge Briefs of the World Bank are a quick reference on the essentials of specific HNP-related topics summarizing new findings and information. These may highlight an issue and key interventions proven to be effective in improving health, or disseminate new findings and lessons learned from the regions. For more information on this topic, go to: www.worldbank.org/health. Page 4