The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Oromia National Regional State Forested Landscape Program (P156475) Oromia National Regional State Forested Landscape Program (P156475) AFRICA EAST | Ethiopia | Environment, Natural Resources & the Blue Economy Global Practice | Recipient Executed Activities | Investment Project Financing | FY 2017 | Seq No: 9 | ARCHIVED on 05-Apr-2021 | ISR45849 | Implementing Agencies: Environment, Forest and Climate Change Comission, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 17-Mar-2017 Effectiveness Date: 28-Apr-2017 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 31-Jan-2020 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 31-Jan-2020 Original Closing Date: 31-Dec-2022 Revised Closing Date: 31-Dec-2022 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The Development Objective is to improve the enabling environment for sustainable forest management and investment in Oromia. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Enabling investments:(Cost $11.54 M) Enabling environment:(Cost $6.46 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Moderate Implementation Status and Key Decisions Overall Progress of OFLP Grant Implementation:  Disbursement: Project has disbursed 60% of the grant - on track with projected disbursement at design.  Progress towards the PDO: The project is on track to achieve its PDO, as reflected in reporting against PDO-level indicators. The core indicators shows that: a) the Composite Index, which provides a proxy measure of the overall enabling environment for forest management and investment, has already exceeded the end of project target (104%); b) the area afforested/reforested is on track to achieve the final target (77%); and, c) the number of project beneficiaries already exceeded the final target (129%). Reporting of intermediate results also indicates that project implementation is progressing in a satisfactory manner against most indicators.  Participatory Forest Management (PFM): Focused in deforestation ‘hotspot’ woredas, PFM support has progressed significantly. The mission noted that the project had brought 91,687 ha under PFM which is 76% of the project end year target (120,000ha). More than 26,000ha of natural forest has been demarcated and is in the process of being established under PFM arrangements. When this is completed, the project will have achieved almost 98% of the end year target. To keep the current implementation momentum and meet the 4/5/2021 Page 1 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Oromia National Regional State Forested Landscape Program (P156475) remaining target (28,313ha) within the remaining timeframe, the mission agreed that ORCU would continue following up with the field team and submit progress updates on a biweekly basis to World Bank.  Afforestation and Reforestation Activities (A/R): The mission noted that this activity is also on track to achieve the intended target (9000ha). To date, the project has afforested 6922ha, which is 77% of the end target. The project is preparing 12.5million seedlings during this fiscal year aiming to completely achieve the remaining 23% of the end year target by end of this fiscal year (in the upcoming rainy season). However, the mission is concerned that the progress on plantation site identification and delineation activity is very slow, which may hinder the project to meet the intended target. Hence, the mission recommended for the project team to give prior attention to this activity and try to finish as early as possible taking the potential negative impact of the upcoming government election campaign that may have on this activity into consideration. The mission also noted that there is some inconsistency in the data (shape file of all AR sites) that have been recently shared to the World Bank team and agreed to send the updated shape file again to the World Bank as soon as possible.  Livelihood activities: The mission noted that the ORCU team has conducted the livelihoods assessment for two legacy REDD+ projects. Accordingly, 69 IGAs are supported by different initiatives like AGP, SLMP, FARM AFRICA, EU-Project, Value chain project, GIZ in Bale, West Arsi and Ilubabor zone. Further, the OFLP livelihoods intervention guidance note was developed with inputs from the Bank team. Also, in 18 OFLP implementation woredas, 53 A/R and 42 PFM forest cooperatives have been organized to organize livelihoods interventions. Going forward, agreed actions are (i) Finalize and submit the OFLP livelihoods interventions guidance note; (ii) Expedite the livelihoods activities in the identified OFLP and two ‘legacy’ REDD+ projects implementation woredas; and (iii) conduct a baseline socio- economic survey of the intended beneficiary households as a baseline for monitoring the achievements of livelihood interventions.  Integrated Land Use Planning (ILUP): The mission noted that there is still disagreement on the findings of the draft report between the consulting firm and government counterpart that slowdown the delivery of desired outputs. The mission further clarified and reiterated the scope of this consultancy assignment under the current ToR. The mission recommends that, as implementing agency of this activity, the regional Bureau of Land Administration (BoLAU) shall take part actively in the steering committee of OFLP and adopt full ownership and responsibility to lead the assignment and coordinate the finalization of this consultancy services. The mission agreed that the consulting firm shall revise and resubmit the draft report based on the feedback provided from government counterparts, prepare a tailored capacity building training syllabus and manual and implement the training program as planned in the inception report.  Strategic Communications: The mission noted a lack of strategic approach to the communication activities conducted so far and encouraged the ORCU communication team to follow the guidelines outlined in the communication toolkit and communication action plan, and the feedback received by the WB communication team. Given the need to improve the current communication efforts to contribute to the success of the program and intended systemic changes the OFLP coordinator agreed to take the lead and closely follow-up future communication endeavors. Before engaging in the production of communication materials, it is recommended that the ORCU communication team clearly define and get clearance from the WB communication team on what, why, when and for whom any communication product is intended along with effective dissemination techniques to be deployed once the product is finalized. To enhance the effectiveness of communication activities as a cross-cutting theme it is also recommended to liaise with the stakeholders who attended the training on OFLP communication toolkit and to work in closer collaboration with the broader ORCU team.  Joint public-private investment to manage OFWE’s over-matured plantation. A consulting firm has been hired and is already on- board to assist in developing a business strategy for better management of OFWE’s matured plantation resources through partnership with the private sector. To complement this work, OFLP grant resources are being used to support a field inventory of planation forest resources in order to improve understanding of the underlying asset base. The expected deliverables of the TA are: i) Strategic Business Plan development showing a number of partnership options with analysis of, among others, the feasibility, benefits, tradeoffs and risks; ii) A brief note as an input to the Country Economic Memorandum (CEM), a product to be delivered upfront; iii) A note on policy reform for improved management of resources by OFWE linked to overall reform needs across SOEs; and iv) a resource inventory of plantation stand within OFWE concessions, which also to inform policy reform needs, business options and sound planation management plan development.  Preparation of the Emission Reduction Program: The mission commended ORCU for finalizing the Emissions Reduction Program Document (ERPD) and for being very responsive in responding to the queries of the third-party auditors. The mission emphasized the need for clarification of ER ownership as a requirement for ERPA signature. Clarity on ER ownership is expected to be provided in the forthcoming Forest Regulation which has been awaiting a decision of the Council of Ministers since September 2019. To help the government prepare for the ERPA negotiation and signature, an ERPA workshop will be organized in May. It was agreed that participants in this workshop will include representatives of Ministry of Finance, EFCCC, OEFCCA and the ORCU team.  Inclusion of additional sectors in the ERPA, including Livestock. The BioCF ISFL aims to pay for emission reductions from a comprehensive landscape approach. To accomplish this, the ERPA will take a phased approach where in each phase, additional drivers and sectors will be addressed in emissions reduction calculations. For this program, the main sectors to be added in the future include emission reductions in forest-remaining-forest (i.e., from reducing forest degradation) and livestock. Agreement was reached that accounting for emission reductions from livestock will be included in the program as soon as the remaining data gaps have been addressed. A data improvement plan to address these gaps, including a timeline and budget, will be prepared. Implementation of this plan will be funded by the OFLP (with additional support from external sources where possible). Furthermore, it was agreed that the program will start the preparation of other elements needed to include livestock in the future, including a monitoring and reporting system, a benefit sharing plan and clarity on carbon rights for emission reductions from livestock. 4/5/2021 Page 2 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Oromia National Regional State Forested Landscape Program (P156475) Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance High High High Macroeconomic Moderate Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and High Substantial Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary Substantial Substantial Moderate Environment and Social High High Substantial Stakeholders Substantial Substantial Moderate Other -- -- -- Overall High Moderate Moderate Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes To improve the enabling environment for sustainable forest management and investment in Oromia IN00965325 ►Score on composite index for tracking changes in the enabling environment for reducing deforestation and forest degradation (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.35 0.57 0.57 0.55 Date 31-Mar-2017 15-Sep-2020 05-Mar-2021 31-Dec-2022 The composite index shows good results for “Incentives” and “Institutions” as the project has triggered the positive changes perceived by the respondents. However, this indicator to measure the change of the enabling environment is very subjective and the sampling of the composite index is not representative of Comments: all project stakeholders (respondents are only state level experts and government people). It was agreed that project management will conduct a survey scientifically, including project beneficiaries in the sample of respondents and reporting in disaggregated numbers for each stakeholder IN00965376 Incentives (policy, laws, regulations, markets) (Number, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.37 0.58 0.58 0.57 IN00965377 Information (generation and dissemination of information) (Number, Custom Supplement) 4/5/2021 Page 3 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Oromia National Regional State Forested Landscape Program (P156475) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.35 0.55 0.55 0.55 IN00965378 Institutions (capacity to implement & coordinate) (Number, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.33 0.58 0.58 0.54 IN00965379 ►Area reforested (Hectare(Ha), Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 6,058.00 6,922.00 9,000.00 Date 31-Mar-2017 15-Sep-2020 05-Mar-2021 31-Dec-2022 Comments: IN00965380 ►Direct project beneficiaries (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 29,373.00 32,350.00 25,000.00 Date 31-Mar-2017 03-Sep-2020 05-Mar-2021 31-Dec-2022 As redefined this indicator during the mid-term review, it encompasses daily laborers employed at the nursery site, experts and community trained at all level, and the beneficiaries of livelihoods Comments: interventions. The communities’ members consulted will not be reported under this indicator, but reported separately and posted on a regular basis on the OFLP website. IN00965381 Female beneficiaries (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 19.00 20.00 30.00 Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Enabling investment IN00965382 ►Forest area brought under management plans (Hectare(Ha), Corporate) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 78,264.00 91,687.00 120,000.00 Date 31-Mar-2017 03-Sep-2020 05-Mar-2021 31-Dec-2022 4/5/2021 Page 4 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Oromia National Regional State Forested Landscape Program (P156475) The mission noted singnificant progress has been made on PFM since last missioin. Comments: IN00965384 ► Forest users trained (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 26,074.00 28,102.00 25,000.00 Date 31-Mar-2017 15-Sep-2020 05-Mar-2021 30-Jun-2022 This indicator was defined to include the # of woreda/kebele experts and community members trained in the application of PFM, land use planning, extension practices and safeguard trainings and exclude the Comments: woreda and kebele level experts from future reporting on this indicator. IN00965387 Forest users trained - Female (Number, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 4,672.00 4,958.00 7,500.00 Date 31-Mar-2017 15-Sep-2020 05-Mar-2021 31-Dec-2022 IN00965389 ►Land users adopting sustainable land mgt. practices as a result of the project (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 54,558.00 54,558.00 18,000.00 Date 31-Mar-2017 15-Sep-2020 05-Mar-2021 31-Dec-2022 This indicator reports on the members of PFM and A/R groups who have adopted the sustainable land Comments: management practices through PFM and A/R activities. IN00965391 Land users adopting sustainable land management practices as a result of the project - Female (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 25.00 21.00 30.00 IN00965392 ►Beneficiaries that feel project investments reflected their needs (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 78.00 78.00 90.00 Date 31-Mar-2017 15-Sep-2020 05-Mar-2021 31-Dec-2022 This indicator measures the extent of satisfaction reflected by the project beneficiaries. It requires a formal survey to be conducted every two years (notwithstanding different targets for each year). First survey Comments: conducted in June 2020. IN00965393 Beneficiaries that feel project inv. reflected their needs - female (Number, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 4/5/2021 Page 5 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Oromia National Regional State Forested Landscape Program (P156475) Value 0.00 4,373.00 5,047.00 6,750.00 IN00965394 Beneficiaries that feel project inv. reflected their needs - male (Number, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 18,558.00 20,168.00 14,000.00 IN00965395 Total beneficiaries - female (Number, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 5,581.00 6,470.00 7,500.00 IN00965396 Total beneficiaries - male (Number, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 23,792.00 25,880.00 17,500.00 Enabling environment IN00965383 ►Reforms in forest policy, legislation or other regulations supported (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value Yes Yes Yes Yes Date 31-Mar-2017 15-Sep-2020 05-Mar-2021 31-Dec-2022 This indicator measures the extent to which the OFLP supports sector reforms, TA support on policy fora, PFM policy harmonization, community bylaws, forest community tenure rights, forest governance support, Comments: policy briefs etc. OFLP cannot be held accountable for the change in law, policy and regulation as it is beyond its control. However, OFLP should provide inputs into the government policy process. IN00965385 ►Grievances registered related to delivery of project benefits addressed (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 Date 31-Mar-2017 15-Sep-2020 05-Mar-2021 31-Dec-2022 Grievances have been considered and resolved by local committees but have not been formally registered in the GRM. The PIU is collecting information from the local authorities to be registered in the Comments: GRM, and will conduct further capacity building to emphasize the need for grievances and their resolution to be recorded. IN00965386 ► MRV system established and maintained at national and Oromia levels (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 4/5/2021 Page 6 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Oromia National Regional State Forested Landscape Program (P156475) Value No No No Yes Date 31-Mar-2017 15-Sep-2020 05-Mar-2021 31-Dec-2022 An MRV system has been established and it is adequately operational for the stage of the project, but it cannot be said that it is maintained as an MRV lab has not yet been established. Therefore, the mission Comments: agreed to mark as “No”. IN00965388 ►Benefit Sharing Mechanism (BSM) approved (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 31-Mar-2017 15-Sep-2020 05-Mar-2021 31-Dec-2022 Advanced BSP prepared and endorsed by the government, however it still needs to go through the Bank Comments: review process. DM expected after completion of the ERPD. IN00965390 ►Safeguards system established and maintained (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 31-Mar-2017 15-Sep-2020 05-Mar-2021 31-Dec-2022 The system was set up in November 2018. The team is on board, training is taking place (continuously), safeguards instruments are being prepared, and currently the safeguards plans are being implemented. Comments: To date training has been completed in more than half the target kebeles. Performance-Based Conditions Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P156475 TF-A4442 Effective USD 8.55 8.55 0.00 5.18 3.37 61% P156475 TF-A4467 Effective USD 9.45 9.45 0.00 5.56 3.89 59% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P156475 TF-A4442 Effective 23-Mar-2017 23-Mar-2017 28-Apr-2017 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2022 P156475 TF-A4467 Effective 23-Mar-2017 23-Mar-2017 28-Apr-2017 31-Dec-2022 31-Dec-2022 4/5/2021 Page 7 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Oromia National Regional State Forested Landscape Program (P156475) Cumulative Disbursements PBC Disbursement Achievement Disbursed amount in Disbursement % PBC ID PBC Type Description Coc PBC Amount Status Coc for PBC Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 19-May-2020 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 4/5/2021 Page 8 of 8