42808 V. 2 ANNEX 1. STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN PUBLIC FINANCES Fiscal reform agendas concentrated more on tax policy and tax administration than on expenditures or public expenditure management. Thus, the pace of improvement in the efficiency and quality of public service delivery, mainly in health and education, has been slow. - Bulgaria plans to continue accumulating surpluses while increasing substantially its public capital spending and other items, mainly related to EU-funded projects. Capital spending is expected to reach 6.2 percent of GDP in 2008 with overall government spending remaining below 40 percent of GDP. To accommodate higher public investment and increased absorption of EU funds, the Government plans to reduce the costs of public administration by 12 percent while allowing for a rise in wages of public sector employees. In addition, a contingency of around 1 percent of GDP has been set aside to provide a buffer for unforeseen circumstances, including further widening of external imbalances. This contingency replaces the 90 percent rule1 and is expected to improve the transparency and accountability of public spending. The government introduced a flat 10 percent PIT rate and continued the harmonization of excise rates with the increase in rates of some fuels frontloaded in 2008. The government is continuing to strengthen fiscal decentralization. - In the Czech Republic, a substantial improvement in the public budget is expected, on the back of the Act on Public Budget Stabilization which was approved by the Parliament in August 2007. The key consolidation measures concentrate on expenditures, particularly social transfers including lowering or canceling a number of welfare benefits and introduction of health care service charges. On the revenue side, the tax burden is being decreased and shifted from direct to indirect taxation. Major changes in tax policy include a flat PIT rate of 15% on gross wages and bonuses, gradual reduction of the CIT rate by 3 percentage points to 21%, and an increase in the preferential VAT rate from 5% to 9%. The pension reform, however, was postponed again. - Estonia plans to maintain a general government budget surplus in 2008, although on at a lower level (1.3% of GDP) than in previous years and with deteriorating structural balance. The state budget expenditure is set to increase by 25%, with the most significant increases in the categories of social protection (33%), education (29%, a large part of which is to finance a 20+ percent rise in teachers' wages) and public order and safety (48%, notably for personnel expenses). As for revenue policies, the plans show further shifting from taxation of income to taxation of consumption and environment exploitation. Tax amendments for 2008 show the strongest negative impact from the reduction of income tax rates and increase of basic allowance (-0.9% of GDP). This will be more than offset by increases of many of excise duty rates (for inflation-controlling purposes brought forward to 2008), increase VAT rates for selected products, and increases in the minimum social tax obligation. All in all the total impact of tax amendments on the budget is to reach 0.19% of GDP. - In Hungary, the 2008 budget represents further steps towards fiscal consolidation including reductions in subsides (for rail and road passenger transport and for gas and district heating), reductions in personnel costs and a slow-down in real wage growth. Pressures for higher spending are coming from an expected increase in the number of pensioners, higher co- financing requirements for EU-financed projects, and increased interest payments. After earlier austerity measures and some initial structural reforms (including introduction of fees for doctor and hospital visits and higher education tuition fees) in 2006/2007, further progress on pensions coming into force from 2008 (changes in pension calculation and in the disability pension system) are expected to reduce the expenditures in the medium and longer term. In the field of health care the insurance based approach has been strengthened and the new Bill 1According to this rule spending units were allowed to spend up to 90 percent of allocated funds until the third quarter of the year. Spending units could spend the withheld amount in the fourth quarter of the year provided that budget execution was good and external current account level has not increased more than expected. 1 on health care is before the Parliament. However, the government had to backtrack on closing railway lines, the proposal to make civil servants' wages performance-based. - Latvia plans to increase its budget surplus to 0.7% of GDP in 2008 with stabilization of the economy set as one of the most important tasks. But the cost of structural reforms is pushing up expenditures. Pension reform will require social security contributions to the funded pension scheme to increase to 8% in January 2008 (from 4% in 2007), amounting to 1.5% of GDP in 2008, in comparison to 0.8% in 2007. Other social transfers are increasing slightly. Significant funding is also planned for the ongoing healthcare reform (0.3% of GDP for healthcare promotion, including 0.2% of GDP for raising the wages and salaries of medical personnel) as well as for completion of administrative and territorial reform (0.3% of GDP). Public investment spending is to increase to 5.4% of GDP (from 4.8% in 2007), including large investments from the Cohesion Fund. However, total expenditure will decrease by 0.2 p.p. to 36.8% of GDP, mainly on the back of a 1 p.p. reduction in collective consumption expenditure, including on wages and salaries. On the revenue side, the tax burden will decrease with a continued shift from direct to indirect taxation. To comply with fiscal policy objectives, privatization receipts as well as unanticipated revenue (except foreign financial assistance as well as revenue from service charges and other self-generated revenue of budget institutions) are to be placed in the long-term stability reserve fund. - In Lithuania, general government sector deficit is planned at 0.5% of GDP in 2008 with implementation of education, health and tax reforms restricting possibilities to reduce fiscal deficit. The first stage of science and education system reform, starting in 2008, includes increase in salaries for teachers and researchers by 20%.The highest growth (by 1.1p.p. of GDP) is expected in social transfers, and also, owing to the absorption of EU support, in gross fixed capital formation. On the tax reform, a shift from direct to indirect taxation continues, with further reduction of personal income tax (from 27% to 24% from January 2008) reducing budgetary revenues by 2.3% of GDP. Several favorable amendments were also introduced to corporate income tax regulations. Nevertheless, the government plans to increase the share of GDP of these revenue sources, on the back of further improved tax administration. Additional budgetary revenues (by 1.6p.p. of GDP) will be generated by increases in excise rates on cigarettes and alcohol and, as a result, in 2008 general government revenue is planned to grow by 2p.p. of GDP yoy (to 37.4%). More restrictive fiscal discipline rules are envisaged further in the medium term, as stipulated in the Law on Fiscal Discipline (which pursues close-to- balanced or a surplus budget, and provides numerical and procedural rules for limitation of expenditure growth). - In Poland, because of the urgent budget preparation agenda the new government had limited opportunity to introduce any major changes in the budget 2008 inherited from its predecessor. The nominal state budget deficit for 2008 was adjusted downwards marginally as compared to the draft prepared by the former cabinet. Adjustments on the expenditure side were rather minor (e.g. higher pay increases for teachers). Despite serious reservations, the new cabinet maintained the further reduction of social security contribution rates (disability) by 4 percentage points from January 2008. Due to various commitments from the election period (higher social spending, tax cuts), fiscal policy in 2008 is to be relaxed as compared to surprisingly good fiscal performance in 20072. During the parliamentary budget debate in late November, the new Minister of Finance J. Rostowski highlighted six pillars of fiscal policy for coming years: (1) reducing public debt by 4 to 7 percentage points by 2011; (2) upholding the previous government's decision to cut the disability contribution rate and PIT in 2009 (further tax cuts are also on the agenda); (3) raising development expenditure ­ on roads, education, science, and "reasonable social spending"; (4) accelerating privatization; (5) economic liberalization: simplification of the tax system, reform of administration, improvement of EU fund utilization, and better functioning of economic judiciary; (6) preparing the Polish economy for euro adoption. In his view, however, euro adoption will exceed the term of the current Parliament ending in 2011. 2 In mid-January, Deputy Minister of Finance K.Zajdel-Kurowska stated that there was a high probability that general government deficit in 2008 would be lower than 3 percent of GDP. She stated that Poland might exit excessive deficit procedure in May 2008. 2 - Romania continues its expansionary fiscal policy and plans substantial increases in government spending while keeping the fiscal deficit unchanged compared to 2007. This is to be achieved by a sizable improvement in revenue collection based on increased compliance with social security legislation supported by a 6 percentage point cut in social contribution rates. While current spending is projected to decline reflecting a lower wage bill and subsidies, capital spending is expected to expand to over 8 percent of GDP. Both revenue and capital spending projections are overly optimistic. - Slovakia envisages further consolidation of its fiscal accounts by reducing the cyclically adjusted deficit to 2.5 percent of GDP. The cost of the planned launch of the fully funded pension pillar in 2008 is expected to reach 1.2 percent of GDP on a net basis. In addition, substantial investments are planned in road infrastructure which would be financed through PPPs. - Slovenia is continuing its fiscal consolidation plans following a comprehensive tax reform that started in 2006 and led to a significant decline in revenues. The less ambitious fiscal deficit planned in 2008 reflects one-off spending items related to financing of railway infrastructure and implementation of the law on public sector wages. The policy agenda envisages the full implementation by 2010 of the comprehensive tax reform initiated in 2005 and changes in tax administration. Gradual introduction of performance-based budgeting is also planned. 3 ANNEX 2. ADDITIONAL CHARTS AND TABLES External environment Chart 1. Nominal exchange rates, LCU per EUR and USD CZECH REPUBLIC POLAND 31 27 4.2 EUR/CZK (LHS) EUR/PLN (LHS) 3.4 26 USD/CZK (RHS) 4.1 USD/PLN (RHS) 30 25 4 3.2 29 24 3.9 23 3 28 22 3.8 2.8 21 3.7 27 20 2.6 3.6 26 19 Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- 3.5 2.4 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 HUNGARY ROMANIA 290 230 4 3.2 EUR/HUF (LHS) 3.9 3.1 USD/HUF (RHS) EUR/RON (LHS) 280 220 3.8 USD/RON (RHS) 3 3.7 2.9 270 210 3.6 2.8 260 200 3.5 2.7 3.4 2.6 250 190 3.3 2.5 3.2 2.4 240 180 3.1 2.3 230 170 3 2.2 Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 4 BULGARIA LITHUANIA 2.2 1.7 3.6 3 EUR/BGN (LHS) EUR/LTL (LHS) 2.15 1.65 USD/BGN (RHS) 3.55 USD/LTL (RHS) 2.9 2.1 1.6 2.8 3.5 2.05 1.55 2.7 2 1.5 3.45 2.6 1.95 1.45 3.4 2.5 1.9 1.4 3.35 1.85 1.35 2.4 1.8 1.3 3.3 2.3 Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 ESTONIA LATVIA 16 14 0.8 EUR/LVL (LHS) 0.59 15.9 13.5 USD/LVL (RHS) 15.8 0.57 13 0.75 15.7 0.55 15.6 12.5 0.53 15.5 12 0.7 15.4 11.5 0.51 15.3 11 0.65 0.49 15.2 EUR/EEK (LHS) 0.47 15.1 10.5 USD/EEK (RHS) 15 10 0.6 0.45 Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 SLOVAKIA CROATIA 40 34 7.5 6.5 EUR/HRK (LHS) 39 6.3 32 USD/HRK (RHS) EUR/SKK (LHS) 7.4 6.1 38 USD/SKK (RHS) 30 5.9 37 7.3 5.7 28 5.5 36 26 7.2 5.3 35 5.1 24 34 7.1 4.9 4.7 33 22 7 4.5 32 20 Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov- 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 06 06 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 07 07 Source: Reuters. 5 Chart 2. EMBI spreads, basis points 290 270 250 230 210 190 170 150 130 60-r 60- 60 06 v- 70-r 70-r Jan-06 Feb-06 Ma May Jun-06 ug-A 60-p 70-p Se No Dec-06 Jan-07 Ma Ap Jun-07 Jul-07 Se t-07cO Dec-07 Source: Reuters. Labor Chart 3. Unemployment rates, % 25 CZ HU 16 LV SI 16 PL SK 14 14 BG RO 20 LT EE 12 12 15 10 10 8 10 8 6 6 5 4 4 2 0 2 0 50 50 60 60 70 70 05 05 06 06 07 07 50 50 60 60 70 70 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q Source: Eurostat, staff calculations. Inflation Chart 4. HICP-Core Inflation, y/y, % 14 14 14 CZ 12 LV LT HU 12 12 10 SK EE SI PL 10 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 BG RO 2 2 2 0 0 0 60 6 70 7 6 7 06 07 an-J r-0pA 60-l 60-t 60-l 60-t 70-l 70-t 60-l 60- 70-l 70- Ju Oc an-J r-0pA 70-l 70-t 60-n Ju Oc Ja r-0pA 70-n Ju Oc Ja r-0pA Ju Oc an-J 60-r Ap Ju Oct an-J 70-r Ap Ju Oct Source: Eurostat. External sector 6 Chart 5. Current Account Balance, % of GDP Trade in goods, net Trade in services, net Income, net Current transfers, net 10 Current account balance 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 2006 2Q 3Q 2006 2Q 3Q 2006 2Q 3Q 2006 2Q 3Q 2006 2Q 3Q EE LV LT BG RO 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 2006 2Q 3Q 2006 2Q 3Q 2006 2Q 3Q 2006 2Q 3Q 2006 2Q 3Q CZ HU PL SK SI Source: CBs, Eurostat, staff calculations. Chart 6. Current Account Deficit financing 400 Capital account FDI, net 300 Portfolio investment, equity Portfolio investment, debt Other* Change in reserves** 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 06 07 07 06 07 07 06 07 07 06 07 07 06 07 07 06 07 07 20 2Q 3Q 20 2Q 3Q 20 2Q 3Q 20 2Q 3Q 20 2Q 3Q 20 2Q 3Q HU LV LT SK*** BG RO*** 7 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 0062 2Q 3Q 0062 2Q 3Q 0062 2Q 3Q 0062 2Q 3Q CZ EE PL SI*** Notes: The sum of flows above and below the horizontal axis sums up to 100% (equals the value of the current account deficit) *) financial derivatives, other investment and net errors and omissions; **) negative values denote increase of reserves; ***) portfolio investment include equity and debt. Source: CBs, Eurostat, staff calculations. Table 1. Selected Vulnerability Indicators in the EU8+2 in 3Q 2007 CZ EE HU LT LV PL SK BG RO GDP growth, SNA (real, %, yoy) 6.0 6.4 0.9 10.8 10.9 6.4 9.4 4.5 5.7 Current account balance, (4Q cumulative, % of GDP) -3.5 -16.2 -5.4 -13.4 -25.4 -3.7 -4.8 -20.7 -13.3 FDI (4Q cumulative, % of GDP) 3.8 3.2 -0.5 6.6 8.1 3.7 3.6 19.2 8.1 Total gross external debt (eop, % of GDP) 37.7 108.4 95.1 68.1 130.6 48.1 52.5 91.3 29.9 Change of international reserves in euro (eop, relative to previous period, %) 0.1 16.5 -2.9 3.0 4.8 1.7 0.2 22.3 14.1 Reserves-to-short-term debt ratio (eop, %) 156.4 48.3 120.8 65.3 74.8 114.9 128.1 145.4 161.3 Money Supply-to-Reserves ratio (eop, %) 351.9 300.1 327.9 252.4 224.5 346.2 235.1 167.0 140.6 Credit to private sector (eop, % of GDP) 44.8 91.7 57.4 58.4 92.4 38.4 40.9 61.6 34.0 Growth rate of credit to the private sector (avg, %) 24.4 40.4 11.2 45.2 45.3 33.0 23.9 55.9 51.3 Foreign currency loans to the private sector (eop, % of loans to priv. sect.) 10.0 78.3 54.9 49.2 83.9 24.7 21.2 48.5 51.5 Short-term (3M) interest rates spreads to euro area (avg, basis points) -123.0 46.0 331.0 77.0 404.0 42.0 -17.0 41.0 231.0 Change of stock exchange index (avg, relative to previous period, %) -1.1 1.6 7.8 10.7 9.3 0.4 5.4 21.7 16.0 *Sovereign credit rating according to S&P's A/S/A-1 A/N/A-1 BBB+/S/A- A/N/A-1 BBB+/N/A-2 A-/S/A-2 A/S/A-1 BBB+/S/A-2 BBB-/N/A-3 *Current S&P Rating. The symbols in line with S&P ratings denote the outlook, S= Stable, N=Negative, P=Positive Source: CBs, CSOs, ISI, S&P. 8 Fiscal policy Table 2. Medium-Term Fiscal Plans based on the latest Convergence Programs, % of GDP Bulgaria 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 General Government balance 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 Total revenue 40.3 42.2 43.7 43.9 43.9 Total expenditure 37.1 39.1 40.7 40.9 41.0 Collective consumption 17.0 16.8 16.8 16.2 15.9 Total social payments 12.8 12.1 12.2 11.9 11.5 Interest 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 Subsidies 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 Gross fixed capital formation 4.0 5.7 6.2 7.0 7.6 Other 1.1 1.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 (compensation of employees) 9.0 8.8 8.7 8.4 8.4 Czech Republic 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 General Government balance -2.9 -3.4 -2.9 -2.6 -2.3 Total revenue 40.7 39.8 39.5 38.1 37.1 Total expenditure 43.6 43.3 42.4 40.7 39.4 Collective consumption 14.4 13.4 12.8 12.1 11.5 Total social transfers 17.9 18.2 17.4 16.8 16.3 Interest 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 Subsidies 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.8 Gross fixed capital formation 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.6 Other 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.3 3.1 (compensation of employees) 7.8 7.6 7.3 7.0 6.7 Estonia 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 General Government balance 3.6 2.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 Total revenue 36.6 37.2 38.2 38.2 37.4 Total expenditure 33.0 34.6 36.9 37.2 36.5 Collective consumption 15.3 15.5 16.5 16.2 15.9 Total social transfers 10.6 11.1 11.9 12.1 12.0 Interest 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Subsidies 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Gross fixed capital formation 4.5 5.6 5.8 6.1 5.9 Other 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 (compensation of employees) 3.6 2.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 Hungary 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 General Government balance -9.2 -6.2 -4.0 -3.2 -2.7 Total revenue 42.6 44.1 44.2 43.3 42.4 Total expenditure 51.8 50.3 48.2 46.5 45.1 Collective consumption 19.1 18.1 16.8 16.1 16.3 Total social transfers 18.5 18.4 18.2 17.8 17.3 Interest 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.8 3.5 Subsidies 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 Gross fixed capital formation 4.4 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 Other 4.5 4.6 4.1 3.8 3.5 (compensation of employees) 12.2 11.5 11.0 11.0 10.7 9 Latvia 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 General Government balance -0.3 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 Total revenue 37.0 37.3 37.4 37.7 37.9 Total expenditure 37.2 37.0 36.8 36.7 36.7 Collective consumption 16.5 15.5 14.5 14 13.7 Total social transfers 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.1 9.2 Interest 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 Subsidies 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 Gross fixed capital formation 4.3 4.8 5.4 5.6 6.0 Other 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.3 (compensation of employees) 10.1 9.7 9.2 8.9 8.8 Lithuania 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 General Government balance -0.6 -0.9 -0.5 0.2 0.8 Total revenue 33.4 35.5 37.4 38.6 39.4 Total expenditure 34 36.4 37.9 38.5 38.6 Collective consumption 16.5 16.5 16.9 16.9 17.1 Total social transfers 10 10.8 11.9 12.4 12.3 Interest 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 Subsidies 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Gross fixed capital formation 4.2 4.5 5.1 5.3 5.3 Other 2.7 3.8 3.1 3.2 3.3 (compensation of employees) 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.1 11.2 Poland 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 General Government balance -3.8 -3.0 -3.0 -2.8 -2.5 Total revenue 40.0 39.9 39.3 38.7 38.3 Total expenditure 43.8 42.9 42.3 41.5 40.8 Collective consumption 15.8 15.3 14.6 14.3 13.7 Total social transfers 17.3 16.8 16.4 15.8 15.5 Interest 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 Subsidies 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 Gross fixed capital formation 3.9 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.3 Other 3.5 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 (compensation of employees) 9.8 9.6 9.3 9.0 8.6 Romania 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 General Government balance -1.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.4 Total revenue 33.2 37.4 39.8 39.9 40.8 Total expenditure 35.0 40.3 42.7 42.8 43.2 Collective consumption 15.5 16.9 16.7 16.0 15.8 Total social transfers 9.6 10.0 11.5 12.0 11.9 Interest 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 Subsidies 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.9 Gross fixed capital formation 4.9 7.0 8.2 8.6 9.2 Other 2.3 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.5 (compensation of employees) 9.1 9.1 8.6 7.8 7.3 Slovakia 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 General Government balance -3.7 -2.5 -2.3 -1.8 -0.8 Total revenue 33.5 33.2 33.0 31.8 31.8 Total expenditure 37.2 35.7 35.3 33.7 32.6 Collective consumption 13.1 12.1 11.9 11.9 11.5 Total social transfers 16.3 16.4 16.2 15.5 15.4 Interest 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 Subsidies 1.3 1.3 1.2 1 0.9 Gross fixed capital formation 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.3 Other 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.2 (compensation of employees) 7.4 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.6 10 Slovenia 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 General Government balance -1.2 -0.6 -1.0 -0.6 0.0 Total revenue 44.1 43.0 42.2 41.5 41.3 Total expenditure 45.3 43.6 43.2 42.1 41.3 Collective consumption 17.8 17.3 17.2 16.8 16.6 Total social transfers 17.6 17.1 17.0 16.7 16.4 Interest 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 Subsidies 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 Gross fixed capital formation 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 Other 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.3 (compensation of employees) 11.4 11 10.9 10.7 10.6 Source: National Convergence Programs, November, December 2007. 11 ANNEX 3. STATISTICAL ANNEX 2003 2004 2005 2006 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- 07 07 07 07 GDP, SNA (real, %, y/y) Czech Republic 3.6 4.5 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.0 Estonia 7.2 8.3 10.2 11.2 11.0 10.1 7.6 6.4 Hungary 4.2 4.8 4.1 3.9 3.7 2.7 1.2 0.9 Latvia 7.2 8.7 10.6 11.9 11.7 11.2 11.0 10.9 Lithuania 10.3 7.3 7.9 7.7 7.4 8.1 8.0 10.8 Poland 3.9 5.3 3.6 6.2 6.6 7.2 6.4 6.4 Slovakia 4.8 5.2 6.6 8.5 8.2 8.3 9.3 9.4 Slovenia 2.8 4.4 4.1 5.7 6.3 7.2 6.0 6.3 Bulgaria 5.0 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.7 6.2 6.6 4.5 Romania 5.2 8.5 4.1 7.7 7.7 6.0 5.6 5.7 Croatia 5.3 4.3 4.3 4.8 4.8 7.0 6.6 5.1 Consumption, SNA (real, %, y/y) Czech Republic 6.3 1.1 2.4 3.4 4.6 5.0 4.2 3.7 Estonia 7.4 5.8 8.7 12.4 12.0 14.0 10.3 5.6 Hungary 7.5 2.4 3.1 2.6 1.5 -3.1 -3.4 -2.3 Latvia 6.7 7.9 9.6 16.7 20.9 17.4 16.2 13.0 Lithuania 8.7 11.2 8.8 12.3 10.3 15.3 9.7 8.2 Poland 2.6 4.0 2.7 4.9 4.7 5.5 4.1 4.3 Slovakia 1.2 3.6 5.3 5.6 7.3 5.7 5.0 6.9 Slovenia 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.2 1.8 1.9 2.5 Bulgaria 5.9 5.4 5.3 6.5 6.1 7.0 5.2 4.3 Romania 8.3 10.2 9.5 11.5 11.5 11.2 10.6 7.8 Croatia 3.7 3.5 2.8 3.1 4.1 6.0 5.6 5.7 Gross capital formation, SNA (real, %, y/y) Czech Republic -1.4 9.1 -0.2 11.7 10.2 8.3 10.2 9.4 Estonia 17.2 11.1 8.1 23.5 28.6 10.8 17.1 9.9 Hungary 2.5 8.2 -4.2 -3.9 -1.2 13.3 10.9 8.5 Latvia 22.1 23.0 8.5 18.9 16.5 29.3 22.6 13.6 Lithuania 24.6 18.7 9.3 -6.1 7.1 3.7 38.4 9.9 Poland 3.3 14.7 1.4 14.1 22.0 20.8 27.6 19.6 Slovakia -8.0 14.3 15.3 8.2 -6.6 -3.1 5.6 1.1 Slovenia 10.1 11.4 -1.1 11.4 13.5 20.0 26.6 19.4 Bulgaria 18.2 14.7 27.3 22.0 26.6 26.5 30.5 14.2 Romania 8.7 19.4 2.5 17.6 18.1 16.4 45.1 30.1 Croatia 14.1 4.8 6.3 10.5 -0.9 7.9 5.7 1.6 Gross fixed capital formation, SNA (real, %, y/y) Czech Republic 0.4 3.9 2.3 7.6 8.1 4.7 6.0 5.7 Estonia 19.2 4.4 9.9 22.4 27.2 15.0 21.8 -5.7 Hungary 2.2 7.6 5.3 -2.8 -5.5 1.9 0.8 -1.8 Latvia 12.3 23.8 23.6 18.3 15.8 17.9 14.4 12.7 Lithuania 14.1 15.5 9.2 11.9 21.9 24.4 18.7 15.3 Poland -0.1 6.4 6.5 16.5 16.6 26.2 20.8 19.8 Slovakia -2.3 5.0 13.8 7.3 5.0 11.0 5.9 6.5 Slovenia 7.1 7.9 1.5 11.9 12.3 21.2 21.8 17.7 Bulgaria 13.9 13.5 23.3 17.6 23.8 35.9 24.7 19.7 Romania 8.6 11.1 12.6 16.1 18.0 17.2 19.4 32.2 Croatia 24.7 5.0 4.9 10.9 9.2 11.2 5.8 5.7 12 2003 2004 2005 2006 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- 07 07 07 07 Exports, SNA (real, %, y/y) Czech Republic 7.2 20.7 11.8 15.9 17.1 15.4 13.5 14.8 Estonia 8.0 16.6 20.5 8.3 -0.7 6.5 3.3 -2.9 Hungary 6.2 15.6 11.5 18.9 22.3 17.5 14.8 14.9 Latvia 5.2 9.4 20.3 5.3 -3.0 8.4 8.7 11.1 Lithuania 6.9 4.4 14.5 15.4 2.9 3.5 3.2 13.0 Poland 14.2 14.0 8.0 14.5 10.1 11.7 6.5 9.3 Slovakia 15.9 7.9 13.5 20.7 23.1 22.7 18.1 8.5 Slovenia 3.1 12.5 10.5 10.0 13.0 14.7 13.2 15.8 Bulgaria 10.7 12.7 8.5 9.0 5.4 2.2 5.7 6.2 Romania 8.4 13.9 8.1 10.6 8.6 12.9 2.4 1.7 Croatia 11.4 5.7 4.6 6.9 11.1 3.0 8.9 7.3 Imports, SNA (real, %, y/y) Czech Republic 8.0 17.9 5.0 15.2 17.1 15.3 13.4 14.2 Estonia 10.4 15.5 16.3 17.1 10.8 9.8 3.5 -0.4 Hungary 9.3 13.4 6.8 14.5 17.7 13.1 13.4 14.6 Latvia 13.1 16.6 14.8 17.5 16.6 29.5 23.0 15.5 Lithuania 10.4 14.9 16.0 15.4 6.8 10.6 14.7 9.5 Poland 9.3 15.2 4.7 15.8 17.5 12.8 10.8 11.4 Slovakia 7.6 8.8 15.5 17.8 14.9 14.5 13.2 3.0 Slovenia 6.7 13.4 7.0 10.4 12.3 14.1 16.9 17.4 Bulgaria 16.4 14.5 13.1 15.1 13.9 13.2 10.7 9.6 Romania 16.0 22.1 16.6 23.0 25.3 23.8 20.8 22.4 Croatia 12.1 4.6 3.5 7.3 5.0 3.7 6.4 7.0 Industrial production (%, y/y) Czech Republic 5.5 9.6 6.7 9.7 7.7 11.7 9.3 6.3 1.3 8.4 6.7 Estonia 11.1 10.5 10.9 7.0 5.5 8.8 7.7 4.9 3.4 8.4 4.4 Hungary 6.4 7.4 7.0 10.0 10.0 9.2 7.5 9.2 6.2 8.5 5.5 Latvia 6.8 5.4 5.9 5.1 3.0 1.3 1.4 1.8 -0.4 -1.6 1.1 Lithuania 16.4 11.2 7.1 7.8 -1.0 -0.7 3.2 8.7 0.1 6.7 3.2 Poland 8.3 12.3 4.1 12.1 10.9 13.2 8.8 8.2 5.4 10.8 8.3 Slovakia 5.1 4.2 3.6 9.8 10.0 15.3 14.2 13.4 15.9 18.2 13.2 Slovenia 1.4 4.8 3.1 6.2 6.6 9.1 8.0 6.9 2.1 10.9 2.4 Bulgaria 14.1 17.1 6.7 6.1 3.4 7.0 8.8 10.5 8.9 11.3 7.1 Romania 3.2 5.4 2.2 7.1 7.1 7.6 4.6 5.1 3.2 5.8 4.5 Croatia 4.2 3.7 5.1 4.5 6.1 7.9 7.0 4.5 2.1 5.5 2.5 Retail sales (excl. motor vehicles, automotive fuel, %, y/y) Czech Republic 4.0 3.0 3.7 6.5 6.1 8.6 7.3 6.4 5.6 7.9 Estonia 9.9 15.5 12.0 19.0 20.2 23.8 17.5 13.5 11.8 8.9 5.0 Hungary 9.0 5.8 5.5 4.1 2.0 0.0 -3.1 -4.3 -5.3 -3.4 -4.2 Latvia 13.4 12.5 21.2 19.7 25.2 28.4 23.8 20.2 17.3 9.1 12.3 Lithuania 11.1 10.7 12.9 7.2 6.2 12.7 14.6 12.4 12.4 12.2 9.3 Poland 3.6 7.1 2.1 12.0 13.9 17.0 13.8 14.4 12.2 16.3 15.1 Slovakia -5.2 6.2 9.7 8.8 8.8 3.8 7.8 4.3 1.9 2.1 2.0 Slovenia 3.8 6.8 1.7 1.4 6.1 3.9 5.8 7.9 9.3 4.4 Bulgaria 11.0 14.5 12.7 13.0 14.0 14.5 11.3 6.4 Romania 17.6 24.3 21.0 3.9 13.4 29.6 31.9 17.1 17.8 Croatia 6.1 2.6 2.8 2.4 4.1 5.9 3.8 1.6 -0.4 2.7 1.6 13 2003 2004 2005 2006 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- 07 07 07 07 Unemployment (%, NSA, LFS data) Czech Republic 7.8 8.3 7.9 7.1 6.5 6.0 5.3 5.1 Estonia 10.0 9.7 7.9 5.9 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.2 Hungary 5.9 6.1 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.0 7.2 Latvia 10.5 10.4 8.9 6.8 6.1 6.9 6.0 5.9 Lithuania 12.4 11.4 8.3 5.6 4.8 5.0 4.1 3.9 Poland 19.6 19.0 17.7 13.8 12.2 11.3 9.6 9.0 Slovakia 17.6 18.2 16.3 13.4 12.1 11.7 11.2 11.3 Slovenia 6.7 6.3 6.5 6.0 5.6 5.6 4.5 4.4 Bulgaria 13.7 12.0 10.1 9.0 8.4 8.0 6.8 6.6 Romania 7.0 8.1 7.2 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.5 6.0 Croatia 14.1 13.6 12.6 11.2 10.5 11.2 9.1 CPI inflation (%, average y/y) Czech Republic 0.1 2.8 1.9 2.5 1.5 1.6 2.5 2.5 2.8 4.0 5.0 5.4 Estonia 1.3 3.0 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.2 5.7 6.4 7.2 8.5 9.1 9.6 Hungary 4.7 6.8 3.6 3.9 6.4 8.5 8.6 7.7 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.4 Latvia 2.9 6.2 6.7 6.5 6.3 7.6 8.6 10.3 11.4 13.2 13.7 14.1 Lithuania -1.2 1.2 2.7 3.7 4.2 4.3 4.8 5.9 7.0 7.5 7.8 8.1 Poland 0.8 3.5 2.1 1.0 1.3 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.3 3.0 3.6 4.0 Slovakia 8.5 7.5 2.7 4.5 4.1 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.1 3.4 Slovenia 5.6 3.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.4 3.0 3.6 3.5 5.1 5.7 5.6 Bulgaria 2.3 6.1 5.0 7.3 6.1 5.3 4.7 11.2 13.1 12.4 12.6 12.5 Romania 15.3 11.9 9.0 6.6 4.8 3.8 3.8 5.0 6.0 6.8 6.7 6.6 Croatia 1.8 2.1 3.3 3.2 2.2 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.9 4.3 4.6 5.8 PPI (%, averagey/y) Czech Republic -0.3 5.7 3.0 1.6 2.2 3.2 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.4 5.4 Estonia 0.2 2.9 2.1 4.5 5.7 7.0 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.1 8.6 Hungary 2.4 3.5 4.3 6.5 5.7 3.5 -0.5 -2.6 -2.7 -1.4 0.4 Latvia 3.2 8.6 7.8 13.2 12.8 15.8 17.8 16.7 15.5 15.9 14.0 Lithuania -0.2 6.8 13.5 2.8 1.0 1.1 4.8 5.4 8.1 13.4 17.2 Poland 2.6 7.0 0.7 2.3 2.8 3.3 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.6 Slovakia 8.3 2.6 5.3 5.7 2.8 0.1 -1.7 -3.0 -2.2 -1.2 0.1 Slovenia 2.5 4.3 2.7 2.3 3.1 4.3 4.7 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 Bulgaria 6.0 6.9 6.9 5.9 7.6 6.3 8.1 8.8 10.3 13.3 Romania 19.1 10.6 11.6 11.0 9.4 7.5 6.1 7.0 8.2 9.2 Croatia 1.9 3.5 3.0 2.9 1.7 2.0 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.9 5.4 Exchange rate (nominal, LCU/EUR, period average) Czech Republic 31.85 31.89 29.78 28.34 28.04 28.04 28.27 27.94 27.57 27.34 26.73 26.32 Estonia 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65 Hungary 253.6 251.7 248.1 264.3 260.3 252.3 248.3 251.8 253.3 251.0 254.5 253.2 Latvia 0.641 0.665 0.696 0.696 0.697 0.702 0.699 0.699 0.702 0.703 0.701 0.698 Lithuania 3.453 3.453 3.453 3.453 3.453 3.453 3.453 3.453 3.453 3.453 3.453 3.453 Poland 4.400 4.527 4.023 3.896 3.848 3.886 3.801 3.790 3.789 3.706 3.658 3.602 Slovakia 41.5 40.0 38.6 37.2 35.9 34.3 33.8 33.6 33.8 33.6 33.2 33.4 Slovenia 233.8 239.1 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 239.6 Bulgaria 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 1.956 Romania 3.755 4.051 3.621 3.526 3.479 3.381 3.279 3.232 3.348 3.354 3.474 3.535 Croatia 7.564 7.496 7.400 7.325 7.366 7.366 7.349 7.308 7.313 7.328 7.337 7.318 14 2003 2004 2005 2006 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- 07 07 07 07 Exchange rate (nominal, LCU/USD, period average) Czech Republic 28.21 25.70 23.96 22.60 21.74 21.39 20.93 20.31 19.81 19.21 18.20 18.10 Estonia 13.86 12.60 12.58 12.47 12.13 11.94 11.60 11.38 11.25 11.00 10.66 10.75 Hungary 224.4 202.6 199.7 210.5 201.6 192.6 184.2 183.2 182.4 176.3 173.1 173.9 Latvia 0.571 0.540 0.565 0.560 0.546 0.536 0.518 0.508 0.505 0.494 0.477 0.479 Lithuania 3.061 2.781 2.774 2.752 2.679 2.634 2.560 2.511 2.481 2.427 2.353 2.374 Poland 3.889 3.658 3.235 3.103 2.984 2.965 2.816 2.759 2.729 2.604 2.492 2.475 Slovakia 36.77 32.26 31.02 29.70 27.88 26.19 25.02 24.42 24.31 23.62 22.65 22.98 Slovenia 207.1 192.4 192.7 191.0 185.9 Bulgaria 1.733 1.575 1.574 1.559 1.517 1.492 1.451 1.422 1.406 1.374 1.333 1.344 Romania 3.320 3.264 2.914 2.809 2.696 2.580 2.431 2.354 2.409 2.357 2.365 2.425 Croatia 6.704 6.031 5.950 5.839 5.713 5.616 5.454 5.314 5.254 5.149 4.998 5.029 Real effective exchange rate, CPI based (%, period average, y/y), (negative value= depreciation) Czech Republic -2.7 3.0 2.2 4.2 3.9 2.1 0.7 Estonia 2.4 1.7 0.5 2.2 2.4 3.3 3.6 Hungary 0.2 7.7 0.6 -1.4 1.6 8.2 14.3 Latvia -3.3 1.1 -1.2 3.7 3.8 4.6 5.6 Lithuania 1.3 -0.5 -0.9 1.4 2.2 2.9 2.6 Poland -10.4 7.0 5.2 1.1 1.5 -1.1 4.0 Slovakia 13.5 7.9 1.0 7.1 9.1 9.7 10.9 Slovenia 2.5 -1.1 -0.8 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 Bulgaria 3.8 2.9 -0.1 2.4 4.9 -5.9 -10.5 Romania -1.7 6.5 10.6 7.2 8.6 8.7 9.0 Croatia Exports of goods (EUR, %, y/y)* Czech Republic 5.8 28.8 13.2 20.4 22.4 20.1 16.8 18.4 16.1 20.6 Estonia 9.9 19.3 29.6 25.1 12.9 1.7 6.2 -0.4 -7.3 13.3 Hungary 4.4 17.3 13.2 18.5 21.1 18.6 15.7 16.1 11.1 15.9 Latvia 5.8 26.0 28.7 18.2 16.2 26.4 23.1 21.6 17.9 23.4 Lithuania 11.2 21.4 26.9 18.7 0.6 6.3 8.0 15.5 7.3 12.2 Poland 9.3 26.9 19.2 22.7 19.7 15.3 13.9 13.8 7.6 14.5 Slovakia 26.7 15.5 15.5 29.4 32.7 37.5 30.0 21.6 19.5 26.0 Slovenia 2.9 16.6 17.6 19.6 19.6 21.7 18.1 20.0 12.5 19.9 Bulgaria 10.0 19.7 18.6 26.6 13.8 6.7 8.7 12.1 16.5 25.1 Romania 6.4 21.3 17.5 16.2 15.4 12.5 10.9 12.7 11.1 23.9 Croatia 5.4 18.1 9.6 16.7 19.2 1.9 17.3 13.5 7.3 7.6 Imports of goods (EUR, %, y/y)* Czech Republic 6.4 23.0 9.3 20.7 21.9 17.8 15.2 17.0 12.3 17.5 Estonia 12.9 16.9 22.5 30.4 19.8 7.5 5.7 -0.4 -3.0 4.8 Hungary 5.9 15.2 9.9 16.5 17.7 14.0 12.1 11.4 7.4 12.1 Latvia 8.1 23.3 22.6 31.5 28.7 35.0 27.1 20.5 8.0 11.3 Lithuania 7.1 16.8 25.5 23.5 10.7 13.7 17.5 13.7 6.3 10.6 Poland 3.2 19.5 13.3 23.8 23.4 18.4 18.2 14.3 10.9 13.4 Slovakia 13.7 20.6 18.5 25.4 23.6 29.0 26.5 19.3 10.2 19.3 Slovenia 5.7 16.7 14.5 17.6 17.6 19.8 23.5 21.4 19.4 22.6 Bulgaria 14.3 20.9 7.6 23.4 26.9 50.3 38.3 43.2 47.3 41.1 Romania 12.3 24.0 23.9 25.1 26.5 33.5 25.4 23.5 22.2 29.0 Croatia 10.7 6.6 12.0 14.4 11.2 7.9 10.9 10.1 6.4 12.8 *Based on Eurostat data. 15 2003 2004 2005 2006 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- 07 07 07 07 Trade balance (% GDP)** Czech Republic -2.7 -0.5 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.0 Estonia -15.8 -17.0 -13.7 -17.7 -17.7 -18.1 -17.5 -16.4 Hungary -3.9 -3.0 -1.7 -1.0 -1.0 -0.3 0.2 0.9 Latvia -17.8 -20.2 -18.9 -25.4 -25.4 -26.3 -26.8 -26.4 Lithuania -9.0 -10.6 -11.4 -14.1 -14.1 -14.6 -15.5 -15.0 Poland -2.6 -2.3 -0.9 -2.0 -2.0 -2.2 -2.6 -2.8 Slovakia -1.9 -3.6 -5.0 -4.5 -4.5 -3.1 -2.5 -1.7 Slovenia -2.2 -3.8 -3.6 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -4.5 -4.7 Bulgaria -13.7 -14.9 -20.2 -22.2 -22.2 -23.6 -24.9 -25.5 Romania -7.6 -8.7 -9.8 -12.1 -12.1 -13.2 -14.4 -14.7 Croatia -26.6 -23.4 -24.0 -24.4 -24.4 -24.7 -24.7 -24.6 Current account (% GDP)** Czech Republic -6.2 -5.2 -1.6 -3.1 -3.1 -3.1 -3.3 -3.5 Estonia -11.3 -12.3 -10.0 -15.5 -15.5 -17.0 -16.4 -16.2 Hungary -7.9 -8.4 -6.8 -6.5 -6.5 -5.8 -5.5 -5.4 Latvia -8.1 -12.9 -12.6 -22.3 -22.3 -24.5 -25.4 -25.4 Lithuania -6.8 -7.7 -7.2 -10.8 -10.8 -11.5 -13.3 -13.4 Poland -2.1 -4.3 -1.6 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.6 -3.7 Slovakia -5.9 -7.8 -8.4 -7.0 -7.0 -5.7 -5.5 -4.8 Slovenia -0.8 -2.7 -2.0 -2.8 -2.8 -3.0 -3.9 -3.9 Bulgaria -5.5 -6.6 -12.0 -15.7 -15.7 -17.3 -19.1 -20.7 Romania -5.9 -8.4 -8.6 -10.3 -10.3 -11.6 -12.9 -13.3 Croatia -7.2 -5.1 -6.4 -7.7 -7.7 -7.8 -7.8 -7.6 FDI net (% GDP)** Czech Republic 2.1 3.6 9.4 3.2 3.2 3.8 4.0 3.8 Estonia 7.9 5.8 15.6 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.2 Hungary 0.6 3.3 4.8 3.1 3.1 1.4 -0.5 -0.5 Latvia 2.3 4.3 3.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 8.0 8.1 Lithuania 0.8 2.3 2.7 5.1 5.1 6.2 6.5 6.6 Poland 2.0 4.8 2.3 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.7 Slovakia 5.8 7.2 4.1 6.8 6.8 5.4 4.4 3.6 Slovenia -0.6 0.8 -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -1.1 Bulgaria 10.3 11.3 14.5 16.8 16.8 16.7 17.1 19.2 Romania 3.7 8.4 6.6 9.3 9.3 8.4 8.3 8.1 Croatia 6.3 2.3 4.1 7.5 7.5 9.5 9.7 9.3 Net portfolio investment (% GDP)** Czech Republic -1.4 1.9 -2.7 -0.8 -0.8 -1.2 -0.2 -1.0 Estonia 1.8 6.0 -15.7 -8.1 -8.1 -2.5 -2.9 -0.7 Hungary 3.5 6.7 4.0 5.7 5.7 3.2 5.5 2.4 Latvia -2.0 1.7 -0.7 0.2 0.2 0.5 -1.3 -1.3 Lithuania 1.5 0.9 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 -3.0 -2.5 -2.5 Poland 1.1 3.7 4.1 -0.9 -0.9 -2.1 -1.9 -2.2 Slovakia -1.7 2.1 -2.0 2.9 2.9 -0.9 0.1 0.2 Slovenia -0.9 -2.4 -5.2 -4.7 -4.7 -5.8 -8.9 -6.6 Bulgaria -1.1 -2.5 -5.9 0.5 0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 Romania 1.0 -0.7 1.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.6 Croatia 3.3 0.9 -3.8 -1.6 -1.6 -0.9 -1.0 -1.3 ** Quarterly data on 4Q rolling basis. 16 2003 2004 2005 2006 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- 07 07 07 07 General government balance (ESA95, % GDP) Czech Republic -6.6 -2.9 -3.5 -2.9 Estonia 1.8 1.8 1.9 3.6 Hungary -7.2 -6.4 -7.8 -9.3 Latvia -1.6 -1.0 -0.4 -0.3 Lithuania -1.3 -1.5 -0.5 -0.6 Poland -6.3 -5.7 -4.3 -3.8 Slovakia -2.7 -2.4 -2.8 -3.7 Slovenia -2.7 -2.3 -1.5 -1.2 Bulgaria 0.0 2.3 2.0 3.2 Romania -1.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.9 Croatia -4.5 -5.0 -3.9 -- General government revenue (ESA95, % GDP) Czech Republic 40.7 42.2 41.3 40.7 Estonia 36.4 35.9 35.4 36.6 Hungary 41.9 42.4 42.1 42.6 Latvia 33.2 34.7 35.2 37.0 Lithuania 32.0 31.8 33.1 33.4 Poland 38.4 36.9 39.0 40.1 Slovakia 37.4 35.4 35.3 33.5 Slovenia 44.4 44.2 44.5 44.1 Bulgaria 40.3 42.0 41.6 40.3 Romania 32.1 31.2 32.2 32.9 Croatia General government expenditure (ESA95, % GDP) Czech Republic 47.3 45.1 44.9 43.6 Estonia 34.6 34.1 33.4 33.0 Hungary 49.1 48.9 49.9 51.9 Latvia 34.8 35.8 35.6 37.2 Lithuania 33.2 33.4 33.6 34.0 Poland 44.6 42.6 43.3 43.9 Slovakia 40.2 37.8 38.1 37.2 Slovenia 47.1 46.5 46.0 45.3 Bulgaria 40.3 39.7 39.6 37.1 Romania 33.6 32.7 33.6 34.8 Croatia Public debt (ESA95, % GDP) Czech Republic 30.1 30.4 30.2 30.1 Estonia 5.5 5.1 4.4 4.0 Hungary 58.0 59.4 61.6 65.6 Latvia 14.4 14.5 12.5 10.6 Lithuania 21.2 19.4 18.6 18.2 Poland 47.1 45.7 47.1 47.6 Slovakia 42.4 41.4 34.2 30.4 Slovenia 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.1 Bulgaria 45.9 37.9 29.2 22.8 Romania 21.5 18.8 15.8 12.4 Croatia Oil (Brent) USD/BBL 28.8 35.8 50.9 65.4 60.1 58.3 68.7 74.7 76.8 82.5 92.7 89.1 Exch. Rate (USD/EUR) 1.131 1.244 1.244 1.244 1.289 1.311 1.348 1.374 1.390 1.423 1.468 1.457 Source: Eurostat, EC, WIIW, CSOs, NCBs, World Bank, IMF IFS, staff calculations. 17