59437 Commodity Markets Review January 14, 2011 DECPG, The World Bank Non-energy commodity prices rose for a sixth Agriculture prices rose 5.4 percent in straight month in December, up 4.8 percent, December, up for a seventh straight month, and despite a 3 percent gain in the value of the dollar 28 percent for the year. The largest annual gains versus the euro. For the year 2010, non-energy were for raw materials (cotton and rubber) and commodity prices were up 32 percent (compared fats & oils. The latter also led the way in to December 2009), with strong gains in most December, with coconut and palmkernel oil main indices. prices up 12-13 percent on lower palmkernel Crude oil prices increased 6.5 percent in output in Asia. Palm oil and soybean oil prices December, up for a fifth month, averaging were higher on weather-related supply problems $90.0/bbl. For much of 2010, oil prices were for palm oil in Indonesia, and deteriorating quite stable, but a rise in the fourth quarter soybean crops in Argentina. Wheat prices rose helped generate a 20 percent gain for the year. In 12 percent on lower exports by key producers. early January crude prices rose above $94/bbl, Rubber prices increased 10 percent on supply with Brent topping $98/bbl. Strong global shortfalls in Asia, while cotton prices rose 9 distillate demand continued to pull crude prices percent on low stocks and supply constraints. higher, partly due to cold weather. The price of Base metal prices rose 6.0 percent in WTI in the U.S., however, has been atypically December, up for a sixth straight month, and 26 lagging Brent by some $6/bbl recently due to percent for the year. The largest annual increase high stocks in Cushing OK, the delivery point was for tin, up 68 percent, due to strong demand for the WTI futures contracts on the NYMEX. in China and lower output in Indonesia and Although total U.S. stocks have been declining China. Among precious metals, silver prices seasonally in recent weeks, they remain high. surged 66 percent in 2010 on strong investment Natural gas prices in the U.S. jumped 13.7 demand, while gold prices were up 23 percent to percent in December due to strong demand a record nominal high. In December, silver because of cold weather. For the year, gas prices prices recorded the strongest gain of all metals, declined 21 percent as unconventional shale gas up 11 percent, on continued strong investor production continues to grow at relatively low interest as a hedge against various financial and prices. Coal prices rose 7.3 percent in December political concerns. Copper prices rose 8 percent due to flooding in Australia that affected rail to a record nominal high, as supplies continue to transport and mine production. Wet weather also be constrained, the latest incident being closure disrupted output in Colombia and Indonesia. of a main port in Chile due to an accident. Major Price Indices Agriculture Prices - Sub-Indices Indices of Nominal US$ Prices (2000=100) Indices of Nominal US$ Prices (2000=100) 400 300 Raw Materials Base Metals 275 350 Beverages 250 300 225 250 Food Energy 200 200 Agriculture 175 150 150 100 125 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Prepared in the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) by Shane Streifel, John Baffes and Betty Dow. Katherine Rollins is task assistant. 1 Major Movers December1 Sugar prices rose 6.2 percent on strong demand Natural gas (U.S.) prices jumped 13.7 percent and poor crop prospects by major exporters, due to strong heating demand because of cold including Australia and Brazil. weather, although stocks remain high. Nickel prices rose 5.2 percent on a rebound in Coconut oil and palmkernel oil prices (close stainless steel demand and nickel imports in substitutes) rose 13.4 percent and 11.9 percent, China. respectively, due to strong demand and below- Cocoa prices increased 5.1 percent owing to the normal production of palmkernel oil. political crisis in Côte d'Ivoire, which has Wheat prices surged 11.8 percent on lower disrupted cocoa exports. exports by key producers, including Argentina, Natural gas (LNG) prices rose 4.9 percent on Australia, and Kazakhstan. strong demand, partly owing to cold weather, Palm oil and soybean oil prices (close and liquefaction outages that limited supply. substitutes) rose 10.7 percent and 6.0 percent, Soybeans prices increased 4.0 percent due to respectively, because of weather problems in falling stocks in the U.S., Argentina, and Brazil, Indonesia affecting palm oil supplies, and a and plummeting crops in Argentina. deteriorating soybean crop in Argentina. December Percent Changes in Price (Nominal US $) Silver prices climbed 10.5 percent due to strong -20 0 20 40 60 investment demand as a hedge against various macroeconomic and political concerns. Natural gas, US -21.0 Rubber prices leapt 10.1 percent due to strong Coconut oil 123.3 Palmkernel oil 119.5 demand, especially in China, and weather- Wheat, US, HRW related supply problems in south-east Asia. Palm oil Silver Sorghum and maize prices increased 9.0 66.5 Rubber, Singapore 69.4 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively, due to a Sorghum small reduction in global supplies, particularly Beef ending stocks of coarse grains in key exporting Cotton, A Index 121.0 Copper countries. Coal, Australia Beef prices rose 8.9 percent because of heavy Crude oil, average spot rain and flooding in eastern Australia which Coffee, arabica Sugar, world hampered transport and livestock supplies. Soybean oil Cotton prices increased 8.6 percent on relatively Nickel low global stocks, supply constraints, and robust Cocoa Maize demand. LNG Copper prices rose 8.0 percent to record Soybeans nominal highs--and above $9,600/ton in early Potassium chloride January--as the market continues to be affected Rice, Thai, 5% Tin 68.3 by supply constraints, the latest being closure of Urea, bulk the main port of the Collahuasi mine in Chile. TSP 103.7 Coal prices increased 7.3 percent due to supply Coffee, robusta Natural gas, Europe Dec '10/Nov '10 disruptions from flooding in Australia that has Lead affected rail transport and mine production. Gold Dec '10/Dec '09 Crude oil prices rose 6.5 percent on strong Groundnut oil global distillate demand, partly because of cold DAP 68.4 Soybean meal weather in the northern hemisphere. Aluminum Coffee arabica prices increased 6.3 percent due Tea, avg 3 auctions to adverse weather conditions in Colombia, the Phosphate rock Zinc world's second largest arabica supplier. Sawnwood Malaysia Logs, Malaysia 1 Percent change of average December 2010 prices compared to average November 2010 prices in nominal U.S. dollars (graph includes 12-month changes in grey). 2 COMMODITY PRICE DATA Annual averages Quarterly averages M onthly averages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Oct Nov Dec Commodity Unit 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 Energy Coal, Australia a/ $/mt 27.1 1 0 71.84 98.69 77.66 95.19 99.49 93.55 106.54 97.45 07.1 1 6 1 1 5.00 Crude oil, avg, spot a/ $/bbl 96.99 61.76 79.04 75.50 77.06 78.18 75.51 85.42 81.72 84.53 90.01 Crude oil, Brent a/ $/bbl 97.64 61.86 79.64 74.97 76.65 78.69 76.41 86.79 82.92 85.67 91.80 Crude oil, Dubai a/ $/bbl 93.78 61.75 78.06 75.46 75.86 77.98 74.04 84.37 80.34 83.70 89.07 Crude oil, West Texas Int. a/ $/bbl 99.56 61.65 79.43 76.08 78.67 77.85 76.08 85.09 81.90 84.24 89.15 Natural gas Index a/ 2000=100 267.9 153.5 156.3 149.4 170.3 147.5 155.1 152.3 144.9 51 1 .6 160.3 Natural gas, Europe a/ $/mmbtu 13.41 8.71 8.29 7.81 8.84 7.51 8.26 8.54 8.29 8.59 8.74 Natural gas, US a/ $/mmbtu 8.86 3.95 4.39 4.36 5.15 4.32 4.28 3.80 3.43 3.73 4.24 Natural gas LNG, Japan a/ $/mmbtu 12.53 8.94 10.95 9.33 10.32 10.95 1 1 .22 1 1 .33 1 .1 13 15 1 .1 1 1 .70 Non Energy Commodities Agriculture Beverages Cocoa b/ c/kg 257.7 288.9 313.3 341.8 329.7 321 .0 305.9 296.6 292.7 291.0 306.0 Coffee, Arabica b/ c/kg 308.2 317.1 432.0 341.7 353.7 392.0 468.5 51 3.8 479.8 514.7 547.0 Coffee, robusta b/ c/kg 232.1 164.4 173.5 156.4 150.8 61 1 .0 183.2 199.1 188.0 202.9 206.5 Tea, auctions (3), average b/ c/kg 242.0 272.4 288.5 301.9 279.0 276.4 295.1 303.7 303.5 302.7 304.8 Tea, Colombo auctions b/ c/kg 278.9 313.7 329.0 338.0 335.1 31 6.2 322.1 342.4 337.2 339.8 350.3 Tea, Kolkata auctions b/ c/kg 225.5 251 .5 280.7 284.4 215.8 274.0 320.6 31 2.3 324.7 316.6 295.5 Tea, Mombasa auctions b/ c/kg 221.8 252.0 256.0 283.2 286.1 238.9 242.7 256.3 248.5 251.8 268.7 Food Fats and Oils Coconut oil b/ $/mt 1,224 725 1 24 ,1 734 834 955 1 59 ,1 1,546 ,41 1 2 ,51 1 2 ,71 1 5 Copra $/mt 816 480 750 491 557 634 769 1,038 947 ,01 1 3 ,1 1 54 Groundnut oil b/ $/mt 2,1 31 ,1 1 84 1,404 ,1 1 52 1,359 1,352 1,301 1,604 1,331 1,728 1,753 Palm oil b/ $/mt 949 683 901 732 808 813 875 ,1 1 08 987 ,1 1 09 1,228 Palmkernel oil $/mt ,1 1 30 700 1 84 ,1 760 922 1,034 ,1 1 61 ,61 1 9 1 2 ,41 1,626 1,820 Soybean meal b/ $/mt 424 408 378 412 369 342 378 424 409 429 433 Soybean oil b/ $/mt 1,258 849 1,005 921 917 876 984 1,242 1 57 ,1 1,247 1,322 Soybeans b/ $/mt 523 437 450 439 417 409 452 522 493 526 547 Grains Barley b/ $/mt 200.5 128.3 158.4 145.5 143.6 146.9 61 1 .9 81 1 .1 174.6 179.1 189.6 Maize b/ $/mt 223.1 165.5 185.9 167.8 162.7 157.7 81 1 .7 241 .5 235.8 238.2 250.4 Rice, Thailand, 5% b/ $/mt 650.2 555.0 488.9 542.3 535.3 452.4 457.0 510.8 486.0 51 4.5 532.0 Rice, Thailand, 25% $/mt n.a. 458.1 441 .5 462.8 477.0 399.1 41 8.5 471 .4 457.0 477.5 479.8 Rice, Thailand, 35% $/mt n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. * Rice,Thai, A1.Special / Super $/mt 482.3 326.4 383.7 346.1 400.7 333.8 376.9 423.1 428.3 427.8 413.4 Sorghum $/mt 207.8 51 1 .1 165.4 163.8 156.9 142.6 153.6 208.6 201 .0 203.2 221 .6 Wheat, Canada $/mt 454.6 300.5 312.4 283.4 279.0 260.9 326.1 383.6 365.6 376.2 408.9 Wheat, US, HRW b/ $/mt 326.0 224.1 223.6 205.4 195.4 177.4 237.9 283.6 270.2 274.1 306.5 Wheat US SRW $/mt 271 .5 186.0 229.7 195.6 193.5 186.9 253.4 284.9 267.5 278.5 308.6 Other Food Bananas EU $/mt ,1 1 88 1 45 ,1 1,002 1,032 1 4 ,01 1,029 933 1,033 1,003 1,035 1,062 Bananas US b/ $/mt 844 847 868 813 781 862 922 908 91 6 908 900 Fishmeal $/mt ,1 1 33 1,230 1,687 1,535 1,660 1 4 ,81 1,663 ,61 1 3 1 0 ,71 1,609 1,520 Meat, beef b/ c/kg 31 3.8 263.6 335.1 273.5 31 4.2 342.4 330.9 353.2 341 .2 343.9 374.4 Meat, chicken b/ c/kg 169.6 71 1 .7 172.1 165.1 167.2 173.0 176.0 172.1 173.9 71 1 .3 71 1 .1 Meat, sheep c/kg 458.5 427.6 499.5 450.1 447.6 486.8 508.0 555.6 550.3 553.6 562.8 Oranges b/ $/mt ,1 1 07 909 1,033 ,1 1 07 1,009 1,084 ,1 1 63 878 1,086 823 724 Shrimp, Mexico b/ c/kg 1,069 945 1,246 864 827 945 n.a. 1,222 1 79 ,1 1,240 1,246 Sugar EU domestic b/ c/kg 69.69 52.44 44.18 49.11 46.38 42.66 43.29 44.38 45.41 44.55 43.1 9 Sugar US domestic b/ c/kg 46.86 54.88 79.25 70.48 84.31 69.62 78.20 84.86 84.29 85.62 84.69 Sugar, world b/ c/kg 28.21 40.00 46.93 50.29 51 .82 34.93 42.98 58.01 54.26 58.09 61 .69 Raw M aterials Timber Logs, Cameroon $/cum 526.9 421.5 428.6 449.5 431.4 408.0 426.3 448.5 458.9 450.2 436.5 Logs, Malaysia b/ $/cum 292.3 287.2 278.2 271.1 253.6 253.5 293.5 312.1 316.4 313.3 306.5 Plywood c/sheets 645.5 564.6 569.1 558.4 557.2 566.3 572.3 580.5 578.2 581.0 582.4 Sawnwood, Cameroon $/cum 958.3 748.9 812.7 806.3 804.1 787.1 1 81 .8 847.8 867.4 843.8 832.1 Sawnwood, Malaysia b/ $/cum 889.1 805.5 848.3 807.4 787.8 832.6 879.8 892.9 880.2 901.5 897.0 Woodpulp $/mt 820.2 614.6 867.6 715.6 780.9 875.5 912.9 900.8 915.3 897.2 890.0 Other Raw M aterials Cotton A Index b/ c/kg 157.4 138.2 228.3 157.7 178.8 199.3 205.2 330.1 279.0 341.0 370.3 Cotton Memphis c/kg 61 1 .3 145.3 232.9 172.4 183.6 200.1 215.0 332.8 284.9 338.5 375.0 Rubber, US c/kg 284.1 214.6 386.6 284.7 345.2 381.5 360.7 459.1 422.8 464.3 490.3 Rubber, Singapore b/ c/kg 258.6 192.1 365.4 256.5 318.6 372.7 337.5 432.8 392.5 431.2 474.6 continued on next page a/ Included in the energy index (2000=100) b/ Included in the non-energy index (2000=1 00) c/ Steel not included in the non-energy index d/ base metals plus iron ore e/ Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc $ = US dollar ¢ = US cent bbl = barrel cum = cubic meter dmtu = Dry Metric Ton Unit kg = kilogram mmbtu = million British thermal units mt = metric ton toz = troy oz n.a. = not available n.q. = no quotation 3 COMMODITY PRICE DATA Annual averages Quarterly averages M onthly averages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Oct Nov Dec 2008 2009 2010 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 Fertilizers DAP b/ $/mt 967.2 323.1 500.7 316.9 464.8 458.2 494.1 585.6 575.0 588.0 593.9 Phosphate rock b/ $/mt 345.6 1 .7 21 123.0 90.0 102.1 125.0 125.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 Potassium chloride b/ $/mt 570.1 630.4 331.9 423.0 334.0 316.1 334.2 343.2 335.0 340.6 354.0 TSP b/ $/mt 879.4 257.4 381.9 235.7 31 6.9 357.4 389.6 463.8 455.0 463.8 472.5 Urea, E. Europe, bulk b/ $/mt 492.7 249.6 288.6 248.3 281 .0 237.2 279.2 357.0 329.4 366.4 375.1 M etals and M inerals Aluminum b/ $/mt 2,573 1,665 2,173 2,003 2,1 63 2,096 2,090 2,343 2,347 2,333 2,351 Copper b/ $/mt 6,956 5,150 7,535 6,648 7,232 7,027 7,243 8,637 8,292 8,470 9,1 47 Gold $/toz 872 973 1,225 ,1 1 02 ,1 1 09 1 96 ,1 1,227 1,367 1,342 1,370 1,391 Iron ore b/ c/dmtu 140.6 01 1 .0 1 .7 61 01 1 .0 01 1 .0 152.0 21 2.0 182.0 182.0 182.0 182.0 Lead b/ c/kg 209.1 71 1 .9 21 4.8 229.3 222.1 195.0 203.2 239.0 238.0 237.7 241 .3 Nickel b/ $/mt ,1 1 21 1 14,655 21,809 17,528 19,959 22,476 ,1 21 91 23,609 23,807 22,909 1 24,1 1 Silver c/toz 1,500 1,469 2,020 1,760 1,693 1,838 1,901 2,647 2,347 2,657 2,937 Steel products index c/ 2000=100 289 227 230 207 21 1 241 232 234 235 233 233 c/ $/mt Steel cr coilsheet, Japan, Reinstated 966 783 81 6 700 725 838 850 850 850 850 850 c/ $/mt Steel hr coilsheet, Japan, Reinstated 883 683 71 6 600 625 738 750 750 750 750 750 Steel, rebar, Japan, Reinstated c/ $/mt 760 486 563 522 546 621 533 550 550 550 550 c/ Steel wire rod, Japan, Reinstated $/mt ,01 1 0 969 71 2 81 4 751 767 678 653 660 650 650 Tin b/ c/kg 1,851 1,357 2,041 ,51 1 7 1,721 1,786 2,055 2,601 2,634 2,552 2,61 6 Zinc b/ c/kg 187.5 165.5 216.1 221 .4 228.9 202.6 201 .3 231 .5 237.2 229.2 228.1 NEW World Bank commodity price indices for low and middle income countries( 2000 =100) Energy 342.0 21 4.3 271 .1 256.1 266.1 267.7 259.5 291.2 277.7 288.6 307.3 Non Energy Commodities 272.0 21 3.2 269.8 235.2 244.2 252.2 275.5 307.4 296.2 305.6 320.2 Agriculture 229.5 197.8 231 .3 21 2.6 21 6.6 21 5.4 228.6 264.6 251 .5 264.0 278.3 Beverages 21 0.0 21 9.9 253.8 247.9 242.5 246.9 259.2 266.4 257.3 264.6 277.3 Food 247.4 205.1 224.1 21 3.7 21 3.1 201 .0 222.0 260.3 248.6 259.3 273.1 Fats and Oils 277.3 21 6.2 244.4 224.5 224.7 21 9.7 241 .1 292.1 269.7 293.8 312.8 Grains 281 .7 21 4.9 21 5.8 21 0.8 205.1 186.6 21 2.5 259.1 249.5 255.9 271.8 Other Food 177.1 81 1 .6 204.9 202.0 205.1 189.4 205.3 219.7 220.2 217.0 222.0 Raw Materials 195.7 168.7 237.4 192.0 21 .9 1 234.4 229.2 274.1 255.7 275.2 291.4 Timber 150.5 138.9 143.5 137.3 132.7 138.6 149.4 153.3 152.1 154.5 153.2 Other Raw Materials 245.3 201 .4 340.1 251 .8 298.6 339.1 31 6.5 406.2 368.9 407.2 442.6 Fertilizers 566.7 293.0 280.0 242.8 259.0 253.3 278.5 329.3 31 5.3 332.7 339.8 Metals and Minerals d/ 325.7 235.6 347.6 280.8 299.0 327.5 371 .4 392.5 385.7 387.8 403.9 Base Metals e/ 287.9 208.9 297.8 264.6 287.0 280.9 286.5 336.8 328.5 331.0 350.9 a/ Included in the energy index (2000=100) b/ Included in the non-energy index (2000=1 00) c/ Steel not included in the non-energy index d/ base metals plus iron ore e/ Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc $ = US dollar ¢ = US cent bbl = barrel cum = cubic meter dmtu = Dry Metric Ton Unit kg = kilogram mmbtu = million British thermal units mt = metric ton toz = troy oz n.a. = not available n.q. = no quotation 4 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2005-2010 5 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2005-2010 Cont'd 6 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2005-2010 Cont'd 7