Policy, Planning, and Research WORKING PAPER$ Office of the Vice President Development Economics The World Bank September 1989 WPS 282 EMENA Manufactured Exports and EEC Trade Policy Bela Balassa EMENA's trade performance in the EEC has been far from uni- form. Reforming countries (Turkey and Morocco) have in- creased their market share - socialist countries have seen theirs fall. The Policy. Planning, and Research Complex djstnbutes PPR Wodking Papers to disseminate the fundings of work in progress and to enoourage the exchange of ideas among B3ank staff and all others interested un development issues. These papers carry the names of the authors, reflect only their views, and should be used and cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are the authors' own. They should not be attributed to the World Bank, its Hoard of Directors, its management, or any of its member countries. Polac,Pnning, and Reseach olfi otIhe Vice President This paper has examined the implica:ions for of the intemal market of the EEC by 1992 would EMENA of EEC trade policy. Following an favor products from the member countries over analysis of EEC trade agreements with EMENA products from the outside, including EMENA countries, the paper has shown that EMENA's countries. However, EMENA countries would trade performance in the EEC has been far from benefit from the acceleration of economic uniform. While Turkey and Morocco, countries growth in the EEC upon c-impletion of the that carried out economic reforrns, increased Europe. 1992 program. their market share to a considerable extent, the European socialist countries and Iran lost market The paper has further indicated that the shares. comparative advantage of the EMENA countries lies in labor intensive products, with the low- As to the future, it has been suggested that wage countries having good prospects in un- the enlargement of the Common Market may skilled-labor intensive products and the socialist have a slightly negative effect on EMENA EMENA countries in skill-intensive products. countries having association or cooperation At the same time, the investigation of e ort agreements with the EEC and a more pro- prospects would have to be carried further by nounced negative effect on countries that do not providing greater product and country detail. have such agreements. In turn, the completion This paper is a product of the Office of the Vice President, Development Economics. Copies are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433. Please contact Norma Campbell, room S9-047, extension 33769 (37 pages with tables). The PPR Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work under way in the Bank's Policy, Planning, and Research Complex. An objective of the series is to get thea.t findings out quickly. even if presentations arc less than fully polished. The findings, interpretations. and conclusions in these papers do not necessarily represent official policy of the Bank. Produced at the PPR Dissemination Center EMENA MANUFACTURED EXPORTS AND EEC TRADE POLICY Bela Balassa TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. I. EEC Trade Agreements with EMENA Countries and EMENA Exports of Manufactured Goods to the EEC . . .. ........ . 1 II. The Enlargement of the EEC and Its Potential Effects on EMENA Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ... . . . . . . 9 III. The Europe 1992 Program and Its Potential Effects on EMENA Countries . . . . . . . . . ... ... . . a. . .. . . 13 IV. Prospective Developments in EMENA Manufactured Exports Vo the EEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 V. Conclusions o. o. . ... 23 EMENA refers to the Europe, Middle East & North Africa Regional Office of the World Bank; EEC denotes the European Economic Community. The author is Professor of Political Economy at the Johns Hopkins University and Consultant to the World Bank. He prepared this paper for the Europe, Middle East & North Africa Regional Office of the World Bank. The author is indebted to Shigeru Akiyama for research assistance. EMENA Manufactured Exports and EEC Trade Policy / Bela Balassa This paper will examine the implications for EMENA manufactured exports of EEC trade policy. Section I of the paper will analyse EEC trade agreements with EMENA countries and the export performance of these countries in the EEC market for manufactured goods. Sections II and III, respectively, will consider the possible impact on EMENA countries of the enlargement of the EEC and of changes in EEC trade policies in the framework of the Europe 1992 program. Section IV will review prospective developments in EMENA exports to the EEC. I. EEC Trade Agreements with EMENA Countries and EMENA Exports of Manufactured Goods to the EEC The first EEC association agreement with an EMENA country was concluded with Turkey in 1963. This was followed by association agreements with Morocco (1969), Tunisia (1969), Malta (1970), and Cyprus (1972). Preferential trade agreements were signed with Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria in 1972. A non-preferential trade agreement was concluded with Yugosla',ia in 1970. The coverage and conditions of the bilateral agreements varied, thereby introducing discrimination among the Mediterranean countries. Also, apart from the association agreements with Turkey, Malta, and Cyprus, the agreements were of a limited duration. 1/ EMENA refers to the Europe, Middle East & North Africa Regional Office of the World Bank. EMENA countries include the developing countries of the area other than Portugal that has become a member of the EEC. - 2 - In 1976, cooperation agreements were signed with Algeria, Moroccot and Tunisia, providing free access to EEC markets for the manufactured exports of these countries for an unlimited period. They were followed by cooperation agreements with Egypt (1976), Jordan (1976), Syria (1976), and Lebanon (1977) under similar conditions. By comparison, the association agreements with Turkey, Malta, and Cyprus provided for the free entry of manufactured goods only at the end of a transitional period. A preferential trade agreement was concluded with Yugoslavia in 1980. Apart from duty-free tariff ceilings on products representing 16 percent of Yugoslav manufactured exports to the EEC and special rules applying to textiles and clothing, the agreement provides for the free entry of Yugoslav manufactures in the EEC. As far as EEC imports of textiles and clothing from Yugoslavia are concerned, the Multifiber Arrangement applies to some commodities and.tariff quotas apply to others. Quotas have also been introduced on selected textiles and clothing items imported by the EEC from Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Cyprus, Malta, and Turkey. Among the other EMENA countries, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Pakistan, South Yemen, and North Yemen come under the General System of Preferences. The GSP scheme excludes, however, sensitive products, such as textiles and clothing. Imports of textiles and clothing from these countries come under the Multifiber Arrangement, if certain limits have been reached. Finally, the EEC has nonpreferential trade agreements with Hungary, Poland and Romania, among which Romania benefits from GSP. These countries are subject to quotas on textiles and clothing under the Multifiber -3- Arrangement. They are also subject to quotas on selected manufactured goods imported by individual 'EC countries. The question arises how have these agreements affected trade in manufactured goods. To examine this issue, data are provided on the geographical composition of the imports of manufactured goods by the EEC as well as by the other industrial countries. Table 1 provides information on EEC imports of manufactured products, with the EEC being defined in its pre-1981 composition. The data show intra- EEC imports as well as EEC imports from the other industrial countries, from the three new entrants (Greece, Portugal, and Spain), from various groups of developing countries, including EMENA, as well as from the European socialist countries that are not Bank-Fund members. EMENA has been defined to exclude Portugal, because Portugal's accession to Common Market membership has affected its trade, as well as the high-income oil exporters (Bahrain, Kuwait, Libya, Quatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates). Manufactured products have been defined to include textiles, apparel and leather (ISIC 32), wood products and furniture (ISIC 33), paper and paper products (ISIC 34), chemical products (ISIC 35), non-metallic mineral products (ISIC 36), iron and steel (ISIC 37), engineering products (ISIC 38), and other industrial products (ISIC 39). For comparison, total imporzs are also shown. The table includes data for 1973, 1981, and 1987. 1973 is the first year following the signature of association agreements and preferential trade agreements with countries of North Africa and the Middle East. 1981 is the year preceding the debt crisis, and 1987 is the latest year for which data are available. -4- Table 2 provides details for EMENA countries. It contains information for each of the EMENA countries with which the EEC has association or cooperation agreements as well as for other major exporters of manufactured products. The rest of the EMENA countries are combined in a residual category. For purposes of comparison, Tables 3 and 4 present data in the same breakdown as Tables 1 and 2 for the imports of the other industrial countries. These have been defined to include the United States, Canada, Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. The data show the increasing importance of manufactured products in EMENA exports to the EEC in recent years. While these products accounted for 22.1 percent of EMENA's total exports to the EEC in 1973 and 22.3 percent in 1981, their share reached 39.7 percent in 1987. An increase was also experienced in the share of EMENA countries in the total EEC imports of manufactured products. This share was 2.3 percent in 1973, 2.2 percent in 1981, and 2.7 percent in 1987. However, despite recent increases, the 1973 EMENA share was not again reached in the extra-area imports of the EEC. Thus, EMENA's share in extra-area EEC imports of manufactuired goods was 6.9 percent in 1973, 5.5 percent in 1981, and 6.6 percent in 1987. The decline is even more pronounced if EMENA exports are compared with exports from all developing countries. While EMENA accounted for 42.5 percent of the manufactured exports of the developing countries to the EEC in 1973, this share fell to 29.1 percent in 1981 and increased only to 29.9 percent by 1987. But Lhe data for EMENA cover considerable differences among countries and country groups. This is shown in Table 5 that separates market economies having association or cooperation agreements with the EEC (Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanor, Turkey, Cyprur, and Malta); Yugoslavia; other socialist countries (Hungary, Poland, and Romania); and other EMENA countries (South Yemen, North Yemen, Oman, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan). It appears that market eccnomies having association or cooperation agreements with the EEC have gained substantially within EMENA at the expense of socialist countries other than Yugoslavia and other EMENA countries while Yugoslavia's share underwent little change. Thus, the share of these market economies in EMENA manufactured exports to the EEC rose from 15.7 percent in 1973 to 38.0 percent in 1987 while the share of Yugoslavia declined from 29.1 percent to 27.1 percent, that of other socialist countries fell from 39.8 percent to 25.6 percent, and that of other EMENA countries decreased from 15.3 percent to 9.3 percent. The observed changes in the composition of EMENA manufactured exports reflect the fact that the share of market economies with association or cooperation agreements with the EEC in EEC imports of manufactured products increased from 0.4 percent in 1973 to 1.0 percent in 1987, surpassing by a considerable margin increases in the share of all developing countries from 5.5 percent to 9.0 percent. Thus, whereas these market economies accounted for only 7 percent of the developing countries' manufactured exports to the EEC in 1973, they came to provide 11 percent of their exports in 1987. Much of the increase occurred between 1981 and 1987, with Turkey and, to a lesser extent, Morocco being responsible for the observed changes. While -6- Turkey accounted for only 0.2 percent of EEC manufactured imports in 1981, its share reached 0.5 percent in 1987; the corresponding figures for Moroceo are 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent. After earlier declines, Yugoslavia recaptured its 1963 share in the EEC imports of manufactured goods in 1987 while the erosion of the share of other socialist countries continued. This pattern was observed in Poland and Romania whereas in Hungary increases in market shares between 1973 and 1981 were followed by a decline between 1981 and 198?. The decline in the share of the other EMENA country group was entirely due to Iran whose share in EMENA exports of manufactured p=oducts to the EEC fell from 9.3 perLent in 1973 to 3.6 percent in 1981 and to 2.3 percent in 1987. In turn, Pakistan experienced a slight increase in its share from 5.1 percent in 1973 to 5.2 percent in 1981 and to 5.7 percent in 1987. The results indicate the importance of economic policies for export expansion. Thus, among countries having association or cooperation agreements with the EEC, the increases were concentrated in Turkey and Morocco which reformed their economic policies in the second part of the period. The reforms, oriented towards export expansion. were particularly far-reaching in Turkey where much of the increase in exports occurred. Economic reform also seemed to have some effect in Hungary between 1973 and 1981 but these effects were more than undone after 1981, when decision-making was increasingly centralized and the exchange rate appreciated in real terms. Economic reforms were of limited scope in Poland and they were not undertaken in Romania while excessively expansionary policies before 1981 were followed by adjustment afterwards in Yugoslavia. Finally, in the case of Iran, the war with Iraq may explain the outcome. -7- The conclusions reached in regard to the importance of economic policies are supported by data on EMENA manufactured exports to industrial countries outside the EEC. Table 5 shows that the share in these exports of market economies having association or cooperation agreements with the EEC increased from 7.4 percent in 1981 to 23.8 percent in 1987. Within this total, the share of Turkey rose from 2.0 percent co 15.5 percent and that of Morocco from 0.5 percent to 1.1 percent. The counterpart of these increases lies in the decline of the share of socialist countries other tnan Yugoslavia while the share of Yugoslavia and that of the other EMENA country group underwent little change. (Iran never had an important share in the imports of manufactured goods by the other industrial countries). The findings show the importance of economic policies in their effects on export market shares in the EEC as well as in the other industrial countries. Nevertheless, preferences do matter. Thus, while market economies having association or cooperation agreements with the EEC had a 38.0 percent share, and YugosLavia a 27.1 percent share, in EMENA manufactured exports to the EEC in 1987, their share was 23.8 percent and 21.7 percent, respectively, in ENEMA manufactured exports to the other industrial countries. In turn, other socialist countries and other EMENA countries had a smaller share in EMENA manufactured exports to the EEC than in exports to the other industrial countries. Note finally that manufactured exports are importantly affected by geographical factors. Thus, while they had relatively low shares in EMENA exports to the EEC, the other socialist countries and the other EMENA country group had a much higher share in the EEC imports of manufactured 3oods (0.7 percent and 0.3 percent) than in the imports of the other industrial countries (0.3 percent and 0.2 percent). The differences are even larger for market economies having association or cooperation agreements with the EEC, whose 1987 shares were 1.0 percent in the EEC and 0.2 percent in the other industrial countries, and for Yugoslavia, whose shares were 0.7 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. For all of EMENA, the relevant shares weto 2.7 percent in the EEC and 0.9 percent in other industrial countries (Table 5). Further interest attaches to the commodity composition of EMENA manufactured exports to the EEC. Table 1 shows the high and increasing sha of these countries in textiles, apparel, and leather products, with EMENA providing 8.1 percent of EEC imports in 1973 and in 1981 and 11.6 percent in 1987. Increases were also experienced in wood products and furniture (from 5.0 percent in 1973 to 5.9 percent in 1987), paper and paper products (from 0.7 percent to 1.0 percent), chemical products (from 1.3 percent to 1.5 percent), and non-metallic minerals (from 1.8 percent to 2.9 percent). In turn, the share of engineering products remained unchanged at 1.0 percent and that of other industries at 1.1 percent while the share of iron and steel fell from 2.6 percent to 2.3 percent between 1973 and 1987. Textiles, apparel, and leather products are by far the most important manufactured exports of EMENA sold in EEC markets. In 1982, they accounted for 56.1 percent of these exports, followed by engineering products (20.2 percent), chemical products (10.2 percent), wood products and furniture (4.6 percent), iron and steel (3.9 percent), non etallic mineral products (2.3 percent), paper and paper products (1.7 percent), and other industries (1.0 percent). In textiles, apparel, and leather products, Turkey leads with a 26.6 percent share in EMENA exports to the EEC countries in 1987, followed by - 9 - Yugoslavia (15.5 percent), Pakistan (9.3 percent), Morocco (9.1 percent), and Tunisia (8.9 percent). Romaenia has the highest share (41.2 percent) in EMENA exports of wood products snd furniture to the EEC. It is followed by Yugoslavia (31.0 percent), Poland (14.9 percent), and Hungary (9.2 percent). Yugoslavia dominates EMENA exports of paper and paper products to the EEC, with a share of 52.4 percent; Poland's share is 13.2 percent and Malta's 9.1 percent. Yugoslavia is also in the lead in chemical products (28.1 percent), followed by Hungary (14.9 percent), Tunisia (10.5 percent), Poland (10.1 percent) and Romania (8.5 percent). Yugoslavia is ahead in nonmetallic mineral products as well, with a share of 32.6 percent in EMENA exports to the EEC. In turn, Turkey has a share of 22.4 percent, Poland, 17.5 percent, and Hungary and Romania 12.7 percent each. Furthermore, Yugoslavia has a leading position, with a share of 41.4 percent, in iron and steel. It is followed by ?oland (18.3 percent), Hungary (16.1 percent), Romania (10.1 percent) and Algeria (6.6 percent). A similar situation is observed in engineering products, whiere Yugoslavia has a share of 41.7 percent; among the other socialist countriej, Poland's share is 13.2 percent, Hungary's 9.8 percent, and Romania's 8.2 percent. Finally, Pakistan leads in the other industry group, with a share of 27.0 percent, followed by Yugoslavia (18.6 percent), Romania (9.9 percent), Poland (9.5 percent), and Hungary and Tunisia (8.3 percent). II. The Enlargement of the EEC and Its Potential Effects on EMENA Countries The second enlargement of the EEC involves the membership of Greece, Portugal, and Spain. All three countries had trade agreements with the EEC beforehand. Greece signed an association agreement in 1962, Spain concluded a - 10 - preferential trade agreement in 1970, and Portugal participated in the EEC- EFTA free trade area in manufactured products, established in 1973. The association agreement provided free entry for Greek manufactured products into the EEC, except that tariffs continued to be levied on iron and steel products and quantitative limitations applied to some textiles and clothing. In acceding to full membership, trade between the EEC and Greece was freed, and Greece adopted the common external tariff in steps over the 1981-86 period. The EEC reduced tariffs on manufactured imports from Spain by 60 percent as of January 1, 1973, except that tariff reductions were postponed to 1977 on some sensitive items. Also, tariff reductions did not apply to iron and steel products while some textiles and clothing remained subject to quantitative limitations. Similar exceptions were made in regard to the imports of manufactured goods from Portugal. In acceding to membership, the remaining barriers to imports from both Portugal and Spain will be eliminated between 1986 and 1993, during which time these countries will adopt the common external tariff. In the period under consideration, EEC imports of manufactured goods increased much more rapidly from Greece, Portugal, and Spain than from the EMENA countries. Thus, the share of the manufactured exports of the three countries in the EEC rose from 2.0 percent in 1973 to 3.6 percent in 1987 while the corresponding figures for EMENA were 2.3 percent and 2.7 percent. But, the increases fell behind those of EMENA market economies having association or cooperation agreements with the EEC, whose shares were 0.4 percent in 1973 and 1.0 percent in 1987. - 11 - It is noteworthy that among the three countries the increases were the most pronounced in Spain (from 1.2 percent in 1973 to 2.4 percent in 1987), followed by Portugal (from 0.5 percent to 0.8 percent) and by Greece (from 0.3 percent to 0.4 percent). In Greece, there was even a decline from 0.5 percent in 1981 to 0.4 percent in 1987, i.e. after acceding to full membership. These results again indicate the importance of economic policies. Adjustment policies were the most vigorous in Spain that opened its economy during the period under consideration. Adjustment policies were also pursued in Portugal while a clear policy line was not established in Greece after the socialist government came to power (by contrast, adjustment was carried out under the socialist government in Spain). It follows that the effects of enlargement will also depend on the policies applied. The continuation of past policies is observed in Spain that is attracting a considerable amount of capital from the other EEC countries. Also, adjustment effects have accelerated under the social democratic government in Portugal. In Greece, however, political conflicts have slowed economic change. In any case, Spain's accession to EEC m4embership will have the greatest effects on the EMENA countries. For one thing, Spain is by far the largest country of the three, with its GDP exceeding the combined GDP of Portugal and Greece more than three times. For another thing, Spain has only a 60 percent tariff preference in the EEC while, with some exceptions, Greek and Portuguese manufactured products have long entered the Common Market duty free. - 12 - The duty-free treatment of Spanish manufactured products will create discrimination against EMENA countries that do not enjoy preferential treatment in the EEC. They will also unfavorably affect other EMEMA countries since their preferentiil margin vis-&-vis Spain in the EE'C market will disappear. Among product categories, special considerations apply to textiles, apparel, and leather products. As we have seen, these products account for 56 percent of EMENA manufactured exports to the EEC. At the same time, there is considerable competition with the three new member countries which had 72 percent of EMENA exports of textiles, apparel, and leather produ-ts to the EEC in 1987. While imports of textiles and clothing from the three new member countries were subject to some limitations in the EEC, the limitations are eliminated in conjunction with their membership status. This will, then, disfavor ENM A countries whose textiles and clothing exports to the EEC remain subject to various limitations. There is further the danger that increased imports of textiles and clothing from the three new member countries would increase protectionist pressures in the EEC. But even if such pressures do not lead to protectionist action, the risk of such action may discourage textiles and clothing imports from the EMENA countries. This may affect, in particular, outward processing that involves the re-importation of material processed in these countries. Some such processing may conceivably shift to the three new member countries. More generally, membership offers advantages over preferences as the former but not the latter is immutable. These considerations, then, again - 13 - favor imports from the three new member countries over imports from the EMENA countries. On the other side of the coin, the membership of Greece, Portugal, and Spain in the EEC also means extending preferences to the EMENA market economies having association or cooperation agreements with the EEC. In terms of GDP, this will add about 10 percent to the size of the preferential market. In the case of EMENA market economies having association or cooperation agreements with the EEC, then, there are negative as well as positive factors. The balance of these factors is not clear although the negative factors may predominate, given the much larger economic size of the old EEC than that of the new member countries. At the same time, EMENA countries not having such preferential ties will unambiguously lose as a result of the membership of Greece, Portugal, and Spain in the EEC, since increased discrimination against them will not be oftset by preferential entry into the markets of the three new member countries. Nevertheless, these losses will be mitigated by reason of the fact that the adoption of the common external tariff of the EEC represents a reduction in the tariffs of the three new member countries. III. The Europe 1992 Program and Its Potential Effects on EMENA Countries The EEC set out to complete the internal market by 1992. The measures envisaged to be taken would increase intra-area trade in the Common Market, but may also have an impact on imports from non-member countries. The proposed measures on trade in goods and services will be briefly described in the following, with further consideration given to their possible effects on EMENA countries. - 14 - While the EEC has eliminated tariff and nontariff barriers to intra- area trade, some barriers to this trade remain. They include border formalities in transporting goods from one country to another; monetary compensation amounts applying to agricultural products; the prohibition of the transshipment of goods imported under national quotas; government procurement favoring national suppliers; and technical barriers limiting the shipment of goods across frontiers. Border formalities impose economic costs on the member countries mainly in the form of the cost of administration and border delays for exporting and importing firms, thereby limiting the amount of intra-area trade. The abolition of these formalities among the member countries is equivalent to reductions in tariffs that will lead to trade creation. But it will also involve trade diversion by favoring partner country producers over non-members, including EMENA countries. Monetary compensation amounts, introduced to ease the effects of changes in the value of member country currencies on the agriculture of the revaluing countries, are equivalent to import tariffs. Their abolition will lead to trade creation among EEC countries. It will not affect imports from non-member countries, however, as these imports are limited by variable levies imposed in the framework of the common agicultural policy of the EEC. In cases when national import quotas are applied on imports from EMENA and other non-member countries, the transshipment of goods in intra-EC trade is prohibited. For EMENA countries, the principal restrictions apply to textiles and clothing. With the abolition of border formalities, Community- wide quotas will be established, presumably equal to the sum of national quotas. There may still be a slight gain to EMENA countries through the - 15 - globalizational quotas as, under present conditions, some national quotas are uiderfulfilled while other quotas represent an effective constraint. Public procurement was not included in the Treaty of Rome establishing the European Economic Community. And while in the 1970s the EEC Commission attempted to induce governments to purchase from the partner countries, the rules did not cover water, energy, transportation, telecommunications, and defense and, even in the other sectors, little cross- country procurement has occurred. The liberalization of government procurement, in turn, will result in trade creation without however affecting EMENA countries that have not supplied goods to EEC countries under government procurement. Technical barriers to trade include differences in industry standards, in legal regulations, and in testing and certification procedures. Industry standards refer to product specifications that tend to differ from country to country in the EEC. Legal regulations pertain to health, safety, and environmental protection that again vary among countries. Finally, there are intercountry differences in testing and certification requirements, often involving an additional certification procedure to that required in the country of origin. Under the Europe-1992 program, there will be mutual recognition of national standards for some products and Community-wide standards for others. This will involve trade creation as well as trade diversion, since products from partner countries will have advantageous treatment over products from the outside, including EMENA countries. Trade diversion may be further enhanced if Community-wide standards are formulated so as to favor EEC products. - 16 - Similar considerations apply to the unification of legal regulations and to testing and certification requirements. The recognition of .;ational rules, or the establishment of common rules, will favor imports from partner countries over imports from the outside. While the Treaty of Rome also envisaged the liberalization of trade in services, little progress has been achieved in this regard. The principal tradeable services are road transportation, air transportation, firancial services, business services, and telecommunications services. Competition in trucking is distorted by the need for licenses to undertake cross-border trade; also, cabotage, involving transportation by out- of-state truckers within a member state, is prohibited. Scrapping national restrictions and the prohibition of cabotage under the Europe 1992 program will increase competition among truckers of the member countries without affecting non-member countries. The regulatory regime in effect for airlines also limits the extent of competition. Competition will increase under the Europe 1992 program but non-member countries will not be affected either favorably or unfavorably. Financial services include insurance, banking services, and investment services. Under the Europe-1992 program these services will be freely provided by firms established in any member state in other member states. At the same time, the EEC will apply the principle of reciprocity, under which non-member countries could not establish in the Common Market unless they offer national treatment to EEC firms in their country. The discussion on reciprocity has thus far concerned banking. In this case, it has been decided that the requirement of reciprocity will not apply to subsidiaries of foreign banks that are already established in an EEC - 17 - country. This is hardly the case for EMENA banks, so the exception does not apply to them. But, given the undeveloped stage of banking in EMENA countries, the requirement of reciprocity will have little effect for some time to come. Similar considerations apply to insurance and investment services. Professional business services include engineering services, managerial consultancy, advertising and public relations, computing services, research and development, legal services, and financial services. Existing barriers to trade in professional business services among EEC countries will be eliminated by 1992. As a result, competition in these services among member countries will increase without, however, affecting non-member. countries. The EEC will open the telecommunications market for trade among the member-countries and will establish standards in the telecommunications field. These measures will favor member-country over non-member-country producers but EMENA countries are not generally competing in this area. The principal exception is Hungary whose telecommunications exports may be adversely affected. While the freeing of service trade in the framework of the Europe- 1992 program will have little direct effect on EMENA countries, there will be indirect effects. This is because the cheapening of services will reduce production costs in the EEC, thereby favoring domestic production over imports from the outside, including EMENA. We have considered so far the static effects of the Europe-1992 program for the EMENA countries. These countries will also be affected by the dynamic effects of the Europe-1992 program. To the extent that the - 18 - establishment of this program leads to more rapid economic growth, there will be increased demand for EMEMA producti. It has been officially estimated that the application of the Europe- 1992 program will add 5.5 percent to the grcss domestic product of the EEC. While the methodology used in arriving at this estimate is open to question, indications are that the promise of a fully-integrated market is having a beneficial effect on the economic climate of the EEC. This is apparent in increased investment activity as well as in cross-border mergers and concentration. The acceleration of economic growth in the EEC may also have unfavorable effects on the EMENA countries, however. This is because increases in productivity will improve the competitiveness of EEC firms, adversely affecting imports. But, it may be surmised that productivity gains will be concentrated in high-technology industries that are of little importance for EMENA countries. IV. Prospective Developments in EMENA Manufactured Exports to the EEC We have reviewed the potential impact on EMENA manufactured exports to the Common Market of the EEC's enlargement and of the Europe-1992 program. A brief summary of these effects may be helpful as a starting point in examining future prospects for EMENA manufactured exports in the EEC. Duty-free treatment of Spanish exports will disfavor imports from EMENA countries. The Aimination of restrictions on textiles and clothing imports from the three new member countries will have a similar effect. There is also the danger that protectionist pressures will increase in the EEC, especially in textiles and clothing. - 19 - EMENA countries having association or cooperation agreements *.ith the EEC will however benefit from extending their preferences to the markets of the three new member countries, although these gains may not offset the potential losses. And, the negative effects will not be compensated in the case of EMENA countries which are not party to such agreements, even so their losses will be mitigated by the lowering of tariffs by the three new EEC members. The Europe-1992 prcgram will give rise to trade diversion due to the abolition of border formalities and the establishment of new regulations on technical barriers to trade. But, EMENA countries may obtain some gains due to greater flexibility in textiles and clothing quotas. At the same time, given their relative underdevelopmont, EMENA countries are not likely to experience trade diversion in services. However, the cheapening of services will reduce production ccsts in the EEC, thereby favoring domestic production over imports from the outside, in. :luding imports from EMENA. There will further be dynamic effects of the Europe-1992 program. Indications are that the promise of a fully-integrated market favorably affects economic growth in the EEC countries, which wi1,l lead to increased imports from EMENA. And while more rapid increases in productivity will improve the competitive position of EEC firms, this is likely to be concentrated in high-technology industries that are of little importance in EMENA countries. It appears, then, that the net effects on EMENA countries of the EEC's enlargement and the Europe-1992 program are far from unambiguous. At the same time, one should emphasize the existence of a large and growing - 20 - market in Western Europe, where the EMENA countries have the advantage of geographical proximity. The question arises which industries would offer the best export prospects for EMENA countries. As a general proposition, it can be said that these are industries where EMENA countries can exploit the advantages of their low labor costs. According to data published in the ILO, Yearbook of Labor Statistics, hourly wages in manufacturing are $0.46 in Turkey, $0.48 in Egypt, $0.73 in Poland, $0.87 in Romania, $0.89 in Hungary, and $1.28 in Yugoslavia. This compares with manufacturing wages of $1.59 in Portugal, $3.97 in Greece, and $5.49 in Spain. It appears, then, that EMENA countries have a considerable labor cost advantage vis-A-vis the new member countries of the EEC, especially as far as Greece and Spain are concerned. EMENA countries also have a labor cost advantage vis-a-vis the East Asian newly-industrializing economies. While these economies had traditionally been regarded as having low wages, the situation has changed as their wages have been rising at a rapid rate over the past quarter of a century. Thus, hourly wages in manufacturing are $1.70 in Korea, $1.72 in Singapore, $1.91 in Hong Kong, and $2.29 in Taiwan. This is not to say that all EMENA countries would have a comparative advantage in the same industries. While the advantages of the Maghreb 1! and Mashreg 2/ countries and Pakistan lie in unskilled-labor intensive industries, the socialist EMENA countries have a comparative advantage in skill-intensive 1/ The Maghreb countries are Algeria, Morocco, and TuniEia. 2/ The Mashreg countries are Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. - 21 - industries, due to their low-cost skilled labor. Turkey may be considered to fall between the two groups. A recent study by Alexander Yeats, "Developing Countries' Exports of Manufactures: Past and Future Implications of Shifting Pattern of Comparative Advantage" (World Bank, January 1989), presents estimates of labor intensity for the year 1982. The data show value added per worker in individual industries, expressed as a proportion of the average for the entire manufacturing sector; the lower this ratio, the more labor intensive the industry in question. According to the results, the ratio is 59.9 for textiles, 50.8 for apparel, 55.3 for leather products, 61.8 for wood products, 68.2 for furniture, and 85.1 for miscellaneous manufactures. These are all products, then, where the Maghreb and Mashreg countries, Turkey and Pakistan possess considerable cost advantages. Particular interest attaches to textiles, apparel, and leather products that accounted for 56.1 percent of EMENA manufactured exports to the EEC in 1987. But EMENA provided only 11.6 percent of EEC imports of these products, and one-third of this amount came from Ahd socialist EMENA countries. We have noted above the dangers inherent in the accession of Greece, Portugal, and Spain to EEC membership for the imports of textiles and clothing from EMENA. To cope with the situation, and to ensure increases in the future, the Maghreb and Mashreg countries should negotiate with the EEC that the free entry provisions of their agrecaents apply, without exception, to the exports of textiles, apparel, and leather products. Turkey may do the same - 22 - with reference to its future membership in the EEC and Pakistan may request increabes in its MFA quota with reference to its least developed status. The labor cost advantages of the low-wage EMENA countries in wood products and furniture are circumscribed by limitations on the availability of wood. They could nevertheless import wood for the making of wood products and furniture. In the other industries category, ENENA had only a 1.1 percent share in EEC imports in 1987, compared with 12.2 percent for the Far Eastern NICs. This category includes a variety of unskilled labor-intensive products, such as toys, sport goods, and travel articles. The possibilities for expanding the exports of these products are very considerable and they do not generally face barriers in the EEC. The EMENA countries have an even lower share, 0.2 percent, in Common Market imports of engineering products. Yet, after recent increases, these products have come to account for over one-half of EEC total manufactured imports and are expected to continue increasing their share in the future. Subcontrlacting offers possibilities for export expansion in engineering products in the low-wage EMENA countries. This conclusion applies, a fortiori, to the socialist EMENA countries whose comparative advantage lies in skill-intensive engineering products. These countries should also be able to offer finished products for export in the engineering industries. In turn, while EMENA countries account for 2.3 percent of EEC imports of iron and steel, they do not possess cost advantages in these industries. This is because of the lack of availability of high-quality iron ore and the high costs of transportation. In turn, there are possibilities in the - 23 - exportation of non-metallic mineral products, several of which are highly labor intensive. These considerations indicate the possibilities for expanding EMENA manufactured exports to the Common Market. The main limitation to this expansion does not appemr to lie in market constraints in the EEC or competition from the outside but rather in the economic policies applied by the EMENA countries themselves. This is apparent in the export success of Turkey and Morocco once they carried out economic reforms. While the policies applied would have to depend on the conditions existing in particular countries, in the nonsocialist EMENA countries they would generally include the establishment of competitive exchange rates; the liberalization of imports, investment regimes, and prices; the streamlining and privatizing of public enterprises; financial sector reform; end reductions in budget deficits. These policies would have to be fitted inIto a package of structural adjustment. In the socialist EMENA countries, enterprise reforms would be needed. These would involve setting rational prices, ensuring competition, and providing appropriate incentives to managers. The enterprise reforms would have to be accompanied by capital market and labor market reforms, so as to assure the availability of capital and labor to efficient firms. V. Conclusions This paper has examined the implications for EMENA of EEC trade policy. Following an analysis of EEC trade agreements with EMENA countries, the paper has shown that EMENA's trade performance in the EEC has been far from uniform. While Turkey and Morocco, countries that carried out economic - 24 - reforms, increased their market share to a considerable extent, the European socialist countries and Iran lost market shares. As to the future, it has been suggested that the enlargement of the Common Market may have a slightly negative effect on EMENA countries having association or cooperation agreements with the EEC and a more pronounced negative effects on countries that do not have such agreements. In turn, the completion of the internal market of the EEC by 1992 would favor products from the member countries over products from the outside, including EMENA countries. However, EMENA countries would benefit from the acceleration of economic growth in the EEC upon completion of the Europe-199i program. The paper has further indicated that the comparative advantage of the EMENA countries lies in labor intensive products, with the low-wage countries having good prospects in unskilled-labor intensive products and the socialist EMENA countries in skill-intensive products. At the same time, the investigation of export prospects would have to be carried further by providing greater product and country detail. TABLE 1 Manufacturing Imports of EEC geographical composition …---------------------------------------------------Y------- YEAR=1973 -----…----_____________________________________ ___-_______ ISIC 32 ISIC 33 ISIC 34 ISIC 35 IStC 36 textile, apparel, wood products, paper and paper chemical products non-metalic and leather and furniture producta mineral products MIL.USS S MIL.USS S MIL..USS S VIL.USS % MIL.USS S WORLD 17141 100.0 3037 100.0 5262 100.0 18989 100.0 3234 100.0 EEC 10850 03.3 1701 56.0 2520 47.9 13377 70.4 2560 79.1 INOUSTRIAL COUNTRIES. EXCL. EEC 1597 9.3 660 21.7 2572 48.9 4045 21.3 462 14.3 NEW MEMBER OF EEC 4 780 4.5 142 4.7 51 1.0 284 1.5 68 2.1 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 3450 20.1 400 13.2 66 1.2 609 3.2 84 2.6 FAR EASTERN NIC 1285 7.5 111 3.6 16 0.3 145 0.8 15 0.5 LATIN AMERICAN NIC 229 1.3 44 1.5 7 0.1 87 0.5 2 0.1 ISRAEL 51 0.3 11 0.4 1 0.0 46 0.2 1 0.0 SOUTHEAST ASIA 25 0.1 69 2.3 1 0.0 20 0.1 0 0.0 INDIA 329 1.9 3 0.1 2 0.0 11 0.1 3 0.1 CHINA 136 0.8 12 0.4 1 0.0 52 0.3 6 0.2 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 1397 8.1 150 5.0 37 0.7 248 1.3 57 1.8 OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 234 1.4 73 2.4 9 0.2 463 2.4 6 0.2 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES 230 1.3 61 2.0 45 0.9 212 1.1 54 1.7 ISIC 37 ISIC 38 ISIC 39 MANUFACTURES TOTAL IMPORTS t. Iron and stael engineering other industries U products MIL.USS S MIL.USS S MIL.USS 16 MIL.USS s MIL.USS S WORLD 10167 100.0 56480 100.0 3560 100.0 117870 100.0 214362 t00.0 EEC 7511 73.9 38007 67.3 1325 37.2 77852 66.0 110368 51.5 INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES. EXCL. EEC 1586 15.6 15589 27.6 609 17.1 27119 23.0 46421 21.7 NEW MEMBER OF EEC 239 2.4 693 1.2 45 1.3 2303 2.0 4773 2.2 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 319 3.1 1203 2.1 354 9.9 6485 5.5 23765 11.1 FAR EASTERN NIC 35 0.3 464 0.8 154 4.3 2223 1.9 2613 1.2 LATIN AMERICAN NIC 22 0.2 70 0.1 19 0.5 481 0.4 4938 2.3 ISRAEL 0 0.0 37 0.1 61 1.7 209 0.2 539 0.3 SOUTHEAST ASIA 0 0.0 21 0.0 19 0.5 154 0.1 1752 0.8 INDIA 2 0.0 31 0.1 41 1.2 423 0.4 807 0.4 CHINA 0 0.0 12 0.0 20 0.6 239 0.2 667 0.3 EMENA, EXCL. PORTUGAL 260 2.6 569 1.0 39 1.1 2757 2.3 12449 S.8 OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 280 2.8 588 1.0 1178 33.1 2830 2.4 25037 11.7 CENTRALLV PLANNED ECONOMIES 233 2.3 399 0.7 48 1.4 1281 1.1 3998 1.9 TABLE I Manufacturing Imports of EEC geographical composition ------------------------------------------------------------ VEAR=1981 -------------- ISIC 32 ISIC 33 ISIC 34 ISIC 35 ISIC 36 toxtile, apparel, wood products, paper and paper chemical products non-metolic and loather and furniture products mineral products MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS S MIL.USS S WORLD 43481 100.0 7715 100.0 14888 100.0 62266 100.0 7880 100.0 EEC 22879 52.6 4380 56.8 7579 50.9 42845 68.8 5552 74.3 INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES, EXCL. EEC 4592 10.6 1523 19.7 6535 43.9 12864 20.7 1104 14.0 NEW MEMBER OF EEC 4 2970 6.8 387 5.0 267 1.9 1088 1.7 334 4.2 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 11674 26.8 1114 14.4 337 2.3 2365 3.8 400 5.1 FAR EASTERN NIC 4822 11.1 373 4.8 140 0.9 654 1.1 190 2.4 LATIN AMERICAN NIC 573 1.3 55 0.7 44 0.3 248 0.4 14 0.2 ISRAEL 319 0.7 16 0.2 6 0.0 267 0.4 f 0.1 SOUTHEAST ASIA 620 1.4 211 2.7 1 *0.0 65 0.1 19 0.2 INDIA 1024 2.4 10 0.1 3 0.0 31 0.0 9 0.1 CHINA 777 1.8 78 1.0 13 0.1 268 0.4 22 0.3 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 3539 8.1 370 4.8 131 0.9 831 1.3 139 1.8 OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 936 2.2 144 1.9 46 0.3 1989 3.2 62 0.9 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES 430 1.0 169 2.2 123 0.8 1116 1.8 129 1.6 ISIC 37 ISIC 38 ISIC 39 MANUFACTURES TOTAL IMPORTS iron and steel engineering other industries ' products MIL.USS S MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS S MIL.USS S WORLD 18686 100.0 162035 100.0 10030 100.0 326980 100. 628760 100.0 EEC 13772 73.7 95149 58.7 3796 37.8 196250 60.0 297544 47.3 INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES. EXCL. EEC 2973 15.9 52895 32.6 3891 38.8 86376 26.4 137932 21.9 NEW MEMBER OF EEC 583 3.1 3679 2.3 112 1.1 9419 2.9 14926 2.4 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 476 2.5 6732 4.2 1683 16.8 24780 7.6 68011 10.8 FAR EASTERN NIC 33 0.2 3434 2.1 933 9.3 10579 3.2 11499 1.8 LATIN AMERICAN NI: 100 0.5 670 0.4 30 0.3 1735 0.5 11608 1.8 ISRAEL 2 0.0 148 0.1 209 2.1 972 0.3 1966 0.3 SOUTHEAST ASIA 7 0.0 462 0.3 116 1.2 1502 0.5 6003 1.0 INDIA 1 0.0 142 0.1 163 1.6 1383 0.4 2079 0.3 CHINA 2 0.0 121 0.1 122 1.2 1403 0.4 2543 0.4 EMENA, EXCL. PORTUGAL 330 1.8 1755 1.1 110 1.1 7206 2.2 32313 5.1 OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 469 2.5 2813 1.7 347 3.5 6806 2.1 92145 14.7 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES 413 2.2 768 0.5 202 2.0 3349 1.0 18202 2.9 TABLE 1 Manufacturing Imports of EEC geographfcal compos tion ------------------------------------------------------------ YEAR=1987 -------------------------- ISIC 32 ISIC 33 ISIC 34 ISIC 35 ISIC 36 textle. apparel. wood products, paper and paper chemical products non-metalc and leather and furniture products mineral products MIL.USS S MIL.USS S MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS WORLD 77339 100.0 12521 100.0 27037 100.0 108670 100.0 12777 100.0 EEC 38322 49.6 7402 59.1 14424 53.3 75065 69.1 9377 73.4 INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES. EXCL. EEC 6694 8.7 2170 17.3 10854 40.1 21753 20.0 1573 12.3 NEW MEMBER OF EEC 6464 8.4 698 5.6 511 1.9 2210 2.0 747 5.8 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 23154 29.9 1733 13.8 757 2.8 5177 4.8 776 6.1 FAR EASTERN NIC 7641 9.9 323 2.6 256 0.9 1556 1.4 260 2.0 LATIN AMERICAN NIC 825 1.1 78 0.6 175 0.6 483 0.4 37 0.3 ISRAEL 391 0.5 23 0.2 16 0.1 531 0.5 14 0.1 SOUTHEAST ASIA 1546 2.0 471 3.8 4 0.0 232 0.2 28 0.2 INDIA 1784 2.3 10 0.1 4 0.0 103 0.1 15 0.1 CHINA 2032 2.6 92 0.7 27 0.1 640 0.6 53 0.4 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 8936 11.6 737 5.9 276 1.0 1632 1.5 368 2.9 OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 2072 2.7 219 1.7 326 1.2 3360 3.1 115 0.9 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES 631 0.8 300 2.4 165 0.6 1104 1.0 189 1.5 ISIC 37 ISIC 38 ISIC 39 MANUFACTURES TOTAL IMPORTS iron and steel engineering other industries products MIL.USS S MIL.USS % MIL.USS S MIL.USS . MIL.USS S WORLD 26758 100.0 312235 100.0 14155 100.0 591492 100.0 874319 100.0 EEC 18787 70.2 180993 58.0 5254 37.1 349625 59.1 476209 54.5 INDUSTRIAL COUNTIRIES, EXCL. EEC 4539 17.0 95660 30.6 2928 20.7 146172 24.7 201449 23.0 NEW MEMBER OF EEC 1154 4.3 9525 3.1 191 1.3 21500 3.6 31493 3.6 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 1074 4.0 17585 5.6 3052 21.6 53308 9.0 97228 11.1 FAR EASTERN NEC 156 0.6 10622 3.4 1721 12.2 22534 3.8 23705 2.7 LATIN AMERICAN NIC 259 1.0 1221 0.4 54 0.4 3131 0.5 13221 1.5 ISRAEL 3 0.0 359 0.1 294 2.1 1630 0.3 3042 0.3 SOUTHEAST ASIA 17 0.1 1404 0.4 236 1.7 3939 0.7 8487 1.0 INDIA 10 0.0 179 0.1 240 1.7 2344 0.4 3107 0.4 CHINA 14 0.1 581 0.2 350 2.5 3790 0.6 5521 0.6 EMENA, EXCL. PORTUGAL 614 2.3 3219 1.0 157 1.1 15939 2.7 40146 4.6 OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 612 2.3 7177 2.3 2364 16.7 16245 2.7 49783 5.7 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES 592 2.2 1295 0.4 367 2.6 4643 0.8 18158 2.1 TABLE 2 Manufacturing Imports of EEC EMENA countries …-----------------------------------…--------------------- YEAR=1973 ------------------_________________________________________ ISIC 32 ISIC 33 ISIC 34 ISIC 35 ISIC 36 textile, apparel, wood products, paper and paper chemical products non-metalic and leather and furniture products minoral products MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS % EMENA, INCL. PORTUGAL 1659 . 209 44 . 304 . 73 PORTUGAL 262 . 59 . 7 . 56 . 16 EMENA, EXCL. PORTUGAL 1397 100.0 150 100.0 37 100.0 248 100.0 57 100.0 CYPRUS 2 0.1 0 0.0 0 0.1 1 0.3 0 0.6 MALTA 30 2.1 0 0.1 0 1.3 7 2.9 0 0.1 ALGERIA 12 0.9 1 0.5 0 1.0 3 1.2 0 0.0 MOROCCO 56 4.0 5 3.0 0 0.3 7 2.7 0 0.3 TUNISIA 24 1.7 1 0.6 0 1.2 29 11.7 0 0.1 EGYPT 25 1.8 1 0.3 0 0.2 4 1.7 0 0.1 JORDAN 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 LEBANON 16 1.1 1 0.4 0 1.2 1 0.2 0 0.1 SYRIA 3 0.2 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.1 TURKEY 104 7.5 0 0.1 2 4.5 8 3.0 4 6.9 PAKISTAN 125 8.9 0 0.1 0 0.1 1 0.2 0 0.3 IRAN 242 17.3 0 0.0 0 0.1 3 1.0 0 0.5 HUNGARY 141 10.1 15 9.7 2 6.4 30 12.0 8 13.5 POLAND 115 8.2 21 13.8 9 23.8 56 22.5 16 27.3 t ROMANIA 142 10.1 52 34.7 6 15.1 43 17.2 8 14.9 00 YUGOSLAVIA 343 24.5 55 36.5 17 44.4 58 23.3 20 35.3 1 OTHER EMENA 19 1.3 0 0.0 0 0.2 0 0.0 0 0.0 ISIC 37 ISIC 38 ISIC 39 MANUFACTURES TOTAL IMPORTS iron and steel engineering other industries products MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS S MIL.USS S MIL.USS % EMENA, INCL. PORTUGAI. 266 . 683 . 56 . 3293 . 13328 PORTUGAL 6 . 114 . 16 . 536 . 879 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 260 100.0 569 100.0 39 100.0 2757 100.0 12449 100.0 CYPRUS 0 0.0 3 0.5 0 0.0 6 0.2 111 0.9 MALTA 0 0.1 13 2.3 1 2.7 52 1.9 62 0.5 ALGERIA 11 4.1 9 1.6 0 0.8 36 1.3 1319 10.6 MOROCCO 0 0.0 6 1.1 2 4.0 75 2.7 716 5.7 TUNISIA 5 1.9 1 0.2 0 0.9 60 2.2 236 1.9 EGVPT 1 0.5 2 0.4 0 0.1 33 1.2 230 1.8 JORDAN 0 0.0 1 0.2 0 0.0 1 0.1 2 0.0 LEBANON 0 0.0 10 1.8 1 2.5 28 1.0 .102 0.8 SYRIA 0 0.0 2 0.3 0 0.1 5 0.2 130 1.0 TURKEY 5 1.9 14 2.4 1 1.3 136 5.0 685 5.5 PAKISTAN 0 0.0 6 1.0 8 21.0 140 5.1 222 1.8 IRAN 0 0.0 11 2.0 0 0.4 256 9.3 2824 22.7 :1UNGARY 56 21.6 64 11.3 8 20.6 324 11.7 789 6.3 POLAND 54 20.7 129 22.6 8 19.7 406 14.7 1384 11.1 ROMANIA 50 19.2 63 11.1 3 8.9 367 13.3 808 6.5 YUGOSLAVIA 78 30.0 229 40.2 5 12.6 804 29.1 1438 11.6 OTHER EMENA 0 0.0 6 1.1 2 4.4 27 1.0 1389 11.2 TABLE 2 Mlnutacturing Imports of EEC EMENA countries …Y---------------------------------------------------------- YEAR=1981 ------------------- ISIC 32 ISIC 33 ISIC 34 ISIC 35 ISIC 36 textile. apparel, wood products. paper and paper chemical products non-metaliC and leather and furniture products mineral products MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS MIL.USS s EMENA. INCL. PORTUGAL 4308 . 531 179 . 969 . 209 PORTUGAL 769 . 161 . 48 137 70 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 3539 100.0 370 100.0 131 100.0 831 100.0 139 100.0 CYPRUS . 50 1.4 0 0.1 2 1.8 1 0.1 0 0.0 MALTA 194 5.S 3 0.7 11 8.6 18 2.2 0 0.2 ALGERIA 1 0.0 1 0.4 1 1.1 20 2.4 0 0.0 MOROCCO 229 6.5 8 2.2 0 0.3 SO 6.0 0 0.3 TUNISIA 394 11.1 1 0.4 0 0.3 143 17.2 0 0.2 EGYPT 93 2.6 0 0.1 2 1.4 7 0.8 0 0.0 JORDAN 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.1 0 0.0 0 0.0 LEBANON 9 0.3 0 0.0 2 1.2 0 0.0 1 0.5 SYRIA 4 0.1 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 0.1 0 0.0 TURKEv 451 12.7 1 0.3 2 1.6 18 2.1 12 8.9 PAKISTAN 323 9.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 1 0.2 1 0.6 IRAN 250 7.1 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 HUNGARV 339 9.6 43 11.7 6 4.6 191 23.0 33 24.0 POLAND 245 6.9 60 16.2 19 14.8 106 12.8 32 22.9 t ROMANIA 338 9.6 148 40.1 21 16.3 114 13.7 20 14.1 O YUGOSLAVIA 576 16.3 102 27.6 62 47.3 160 19.3 39 28.2 OTHER EMENA 42 1.2 0 0.0 0 0.1 1 0.1 0 0.0 ISIC 37 ISIC 38 1 IC 39 MANUFACTURES TOTAL IMPORTS iron and steel engineering other industries products MIL.USS I MIL.USS X MIL.USS % MIL.USS I MIL.USS X EMENA. INCL. PORTUGAL 348 . 2187 . 123 . 8853 . 34660 PORTUGAL 17 . 432 . 12 . 1647 . 2347 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 330 100.0 1755 100.0 110 100.0 7206 100.0 32313 100.0 CYPRUS 0 0.0 15 0.8 0 0.4 68 1.0 228 0.7 MALTA 1 0.2 42 2.4 8 7.0 277 3.8 310 1.0 ALGERIA 1 0.4 16 0.9 0 0.1 41 0.6 6741 20.9 MOROCCO 0 0.0 37 2.1 3 3.1 329 4.6 1351 4.2 TUNISIA 0 0.1 38 2.2 4 3.6 582 8.1 1320 4.1 EGYPT 2 0.5 25 1.4 n 0.2 130 1.8 3484 10.8 JORDAN 0 0.0 32 1.8 0 0.4 33 0.5 49 0.2 LEBANON 1 0.2 12 0.7 4 3.4 28 0.4 45 0.1 SYRIA 0 0.0 12 0.7 0 0.1 17 0.2 1277 4.0 TURKEY 28 8.5 39 2.2 2 1.5 552 7.7 1615 5.0 PAKISTAN O 0.0 28 1.6 21 19.3 375 5.2 543 1.7 IRAN 0 0.0 10 0.6 C 0.2 261 3.6 2779 8.6 HUNGARY 71 21.5 202 11.5 24 22.1 909 12.6 1586 4.9 POLAND 99 30.1 342 19.5 13 12.2 917 12.7 2248 7.0 ROMANIA 77 23.3 147 8.4 10 8.9 875 12.1 2024 6.3 YUGOSLAVIA 50 15.1 654 37.3 18 16.0 1661 23.1 2429 7.5 OTHER EMENA 0 0.0 104 5.9 2 1.6 149 2.1 4284 13.3 TABLE 2 Manufa aring Imports of EEC tMENA countries ----------------------A------------------------------------- VEAR=1987 --------------------------------------------- ISIC 32 ISIC 33 ISIC 34 ISIC 35 ISIC 38 textile, apparel, wood products, paper and paper chemical products non-metalic and leather and furniture products mineral products UIL.USS s MIL.USS S MIL.USS S MIL.USS S MIL.USS S EMENA. INCL. PORTUGAL 11596 . 1082 353 . 1972 . 565 PORTUGAL 2660 . 346 . 78 * 340 . 197 EMENA, EXCL. PORTUGAL 8936 100.0 737 100.0 276 100.0 1632 100.0 368 100.0 CVPRUS 105 1.2 2 0.2 3 1.0 5 0.3 0 0.1 MALTA 171 1.9 3 0.4 25 9.1 32 2.0 1 0.1 ALGERIA 1 0.0 1 0.2 10 3.5 35 2.2 0 0.0 MOROCCO 817 9.1 10 1.3 4 1.6 150 9.2 3 0.7 TUNISIA 793 8.9 3 0.4 2 0.7 172 10.5 3 0.7 EGVPT 212 2.4 0 0.0 1 0.5 12 0.7 0 0.1 JORDAN 1 0.0 1 0.1 0 0.1 46 2.8 0 0.0 LEBANON 19 0.2 1 0.1 2. 0.6 3 0.2 0 0.0 SYRIA 4 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 TURKEY 2380 26.6 5 0.7 7 2.4 148 9.1 82 22.4 PAKISTAN 828 9.3 0 0.1 1 0.4 3 0.2 1 0.2 IRAN 324 3.6 0 0.0 0 0.1 1 0.1 0 0.0 HUNGARY 477 5.3 68 9.2 22 7.8 244 14.9 47 12.7 POLAND 468 5.2 110 14.9 36 13.2 165 10.1 65 17.5 w ROMANIA 555 6.2 303 41.2 18 6.4 139 8.5 47 12.7 0 VUGOSLA':.A 1743 19.5 229 31.0 144 52.4 459 28.1 120 32.6 OTHER EMENA 40 0.4 1 0.1 1 0.3 19 1.2 0 0.0 ISIC 37 ISIC 38 ISIC 39 MANUFACTURES TOTAL IMPORTS iron and steel engineering other industries products MIL.USS S MIL.USS MIL.USS S MIL.USS S MIL.USS S EMENA. INCL. PORTUGAL 648 . 4381 . 186 . 20785 . 46172 PORTUGAL 34 . 1163 . 29 . 4846 . 6027 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 614 100.0 3219 100.0 157 100.0 15939 100.0 40146 100.0 CYPRUS 0 0.0 35 1.1 0 0.2 150 0.9 337 0.8 MALTA 1 0.1 123 3.8 6 3.6 360 2.3 423 1.1 ALGERIA 41 6.6 27 0.8 0 0.0 114 0.7 5647 14.1 MOROCCO 0 0.0 98 3.0 5 3.4 1086 6.8 1980 4.9 TUNISIA 2 0.3 125 3.9 13 8.3 1112 7.0 1586 4.0 FCVPT 11 1.8 47 1.4 0 0.1 283 1.8 2079 5.2 JORDAN 0 0.0 60 1.9 0 0.1 109 0.7 136 0.3 LEBANON 0 0.0 12 0.4 7 4.5 43 0.3 94 0.2 SYRIA 0 0.0 3 0.1 0 0.0 8 0.0 615 1.5 TURKEV 30 4.8 126 3.9 7 4.5 2786 17.5 4750 11.8 PAKISTAN 2 0.4 27 0.8 42 27.0 904 5.7 1169 2.9 IRAN 0 0.0 43 1.3 0 0.0 368 2.3 3949 9.6 HUNGARV 99 16.1 316 9.8 13 8.3 1286 8.1 2254 5.6 POLAND 112 18.3 424 13.2 IS 9.5 1394 8.7 3229 8.0 ROMANIA 62 10.1 265 8.2 16 9.9 1404 8.8 2591 6.5 YUGOSLAVIA 254 41.4 1342 41.7 20 18.6 4320 27.1 5775 14.4 OTHER EMENA 0 0.0 147 4.6 3 2.0 212 1.3 3631 9.0 TABLE 3 Manufacturing Imports of other Industrial Countries geographical composition ------------------------------------------------------------ YEAR=1973 ------------------------------------------------------------- ISIC 32 ISIC 33 ISIC 34 ISIC 35 ISIC 36 textile, apparel, wood products, paper and paper chemical products non-metalic and leather and furniture products mineral products MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS S MIL.USS % MIL.USS S WORLD 12680 100.0 2760 100.0 3592 100.0 12343 100.0 2132 100.0 EEC 4091 32.3 510 18.5 857 23.9 5628 45.6 979 45.9 INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES. EXCL. EEC 2916 23.0 1168 4z.. 2586 72.0 5182 42.0 883 41.4 NEW MEMBER OF EEC 556 4.4 67 2.4 15 0.4 142 1.1 38 1.8 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 4741 37.4 944 34.2 105 2.9 940 7.6 166 7.8 FAR EASTERN NIC 2793 22.0 650 23.6 55 1.5 594 4.8 59 2.8 LATIN AMERICAN NIC 498 3.9 74 2.7 30 0.8 IC 0.9 49 2.3 ISRAEL 60 0.5 2 0.1 3 0.1 0.3 2 0.1 SOUTHEAST ASIA 181 1.4 119 4.3 4 0.1 J 0.2 8 0.4 INOIA 377 3.0 5 0.2 1 0 0 13 0.1 4 0.2 CHINA 354 2.8 1S O.S 3 0.1 70 0.6 14 0.6 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 477 3.8 79 2.9 10 0.3 97 0.8 31 1.4 OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 262 2.1 49 1.8 18 0.5 328 2.7 22 1.1 CENTRALLY PLANNEO ECONOMIES 113 0.9 22 0.8 12 0.3 124 1.0 43 2.0 ISIC 37 ISIC 38 ISIC 39 MANUFACTURES TOTAL IMPORTS iron and steel engineering other industrias products MIL.USS % MIL.USS 1 MIL.USS % MIL.USS S MIL.USS S WORLD 6690 100.0 57363 100.0 3388 100.0 100946 100.0 180220 100.0 EEC 2860 42.8 20087 35.0 1216 35.9 36229 35.9 47104 26.1 INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES. EXCL. EEC 3030 45.3 33492 58.4 986 29.1 50241 49.8 80440 44.6 NEW MEMBER OF EEC 71 1.1 302 0.5 31 0.9 1222 1.2 2060 1.1 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 381 5.7 3121 5.4 873 25.8 11270 11.2 28669 15.9 FAR EASTERN NIC 113 1.7 1997 3.5 523 15.5 6784 6.7 8403 4.7 LATIN AMERICAN NIC 122 1.8 711 1.2 59 1.7 1652 1.6 5872 3.3 ISRAEL 1 0.0 33 0.1 142 4.2 274 0.3 483 0.3 SOUTHEAST ASIA 1 0.0 84 0.1 48 1.4 470 0.5 5532 3.1 INDIA 29 0.4 22 0.0 51 1.5 502 0.5 1195 0.7 CHINA 0 0.0 10 0.0 25 0.7 491 0.5 1284 0.7 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 115 1.7 264 0.5 24 0.7 1096 1.1 5899 3.3 OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 222 3.3 82 0.1 235 6.9 1219 1.2 18619 10.3 CENTRALLY PLANNEO ECONOMIES 126 1.9 278 O.S 47 1.4 765 0.8 3328 1.8 TABLE 3 Manufacturing Imports of other Industrial Countries geographical composition ------------------------------------------------------------ YEAR=1981 ------------------------------------------------------------- ISIC 32 ISIC 33 ISIC 34 ISIC 35 ISIC 36 textile, apparel. wood products. paper and paper chemical products non-motalic and leather and furnitur- products mineral products MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS MIL.USS a WORLD 32669 100.0 6770 100.0 9934 100.0 42101 100.0 5815 100.0 EEC 8143 24.9 1451 21.4 2162 21.8 15936 37.9 2557 44.0 INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES. EXCL. EEC 5258 16.1 2734 40.4 7205 72.5 19334 45.9 2239 38.5 NEW MEMBER OF EEC 836 2.6 112 1.7 51 0.5 391 0.9 129 2.2 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 17154 52.5 2266 33.5 471 4.7 4728 11.2 761 13.1 FAR EASTERN NIC 11188 34.2 1228 18.1 257 2.6 2724 6.5 409 7.0 LATIN AMERICAN NIC 1445 4.4 197 2.9 158 1.6 855 2.0 147 2.5 ISRAEL 41 0.1 8 0.1 6 0.1 179 0.4 6 0.1 SOUTHEAST ASIA 938 2.9 453 6.7 6 0.1 235 0.6 22 0.4 INDIA 798 2.4 12 0.2 4 0.0 48 0.1 11 0.2 CHINA 1729 5.3 142 2.1 13 0.1 470 1.1 64 1.1 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 1015 3.1 225 3.3 28 0.3 219 0.5 102 1.8 OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 1088 3.3 108 1.6 24 0.2 1205 2.9 47 0.8 CENTRALLV PLANNED ECONOMIES 190 0.6 99 1.5 22 0.2 508 1.2 81 1.4 ISIC 37 ISIC 38 ISIC 39 MANUFACTURES TOTAL IMPORTS W iron and steel engineering other industries products MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS s WORLD 20423 100.0 175841 100.0 10623 100.0 304177 100.0 617977 100.0 EEC 7129 34.9 46635 26.5 3245 30.5 87258 28.7 120242 19.5 INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES. EXCL. EEC 9210 45.1 109192 62.1 2657 25.0 157830 51.9 229820 37.2 NEW MEMBER OF EEC 574 2.8 720 0.4 80 0.8 2892 1.0 4919 0.8 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 2474 12.1 18119 10.3 3830 36.1 49803 16.4 128522 20.8 FAR EASTERN NIC 1251 6.1 10905 6.2 2340 22.0 30303 10.0 36546 5.9 LATIN AMERICAN NIC 568 2.8 3781 2.2 146 1.4 7296 2.4 27292 4.4 ISRAEL 22 0.1 400 0.2 572 5.4 1233 0.4 1984 0.3 SOUTHEAST ASIA 55 0.3 2077 1.2 282 2.7 4068 1.3 32667 5.3 INDIA 23 0.1 164 0.1 274 2.6 1335 0.4 2826 0.5 CHINA 172 0.8 172 0.1 130 1.2 2892 1.0 8133 1.3 EMENA, EXCL. PORTUGAL 384 1.9 620 0.4 85 0.8 2677 0.9 19174 3.1 OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 898 4.4 613 0.3 752 7.1 4734 1.6 123796 20.0 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES 140 0.7 562 0.3 59 0.6 16b1 0.5 10678 1.7 TABLE 3 Manufacturing Imports of other Industrial Countries geographical composition …----___------------__---------------------------------- YEAR=1987 ----------------------------------------------- ISIC 32 ISIC 33 ISIC 34 ISIC 35 ISIC 38 textile, apparel, wood products, piper and paper chemical products non-metallc and leather and furniture pro-:ucts mineral products MIL.USS S MIL.USS S MIL.USS S MIL.USS S MIL.USS S WORLD 69425 100.0 14864 100.0 18261 100.0 73486 100.0 11560 100.0 EEC 16739 24.1 3903 26.3 5037 27.6 30541 41.6 4829 41.8 'NDUSTRIAL CCUNTRIES, EXCL. EEC 6637 9.6 4639 31.2 11731 64.2 28119 38.3 3438 29.7 NEW MEMBER OF EEC * 2302 3.3 220 1.5 100 0.5 790 1.1 495 4.3 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 40148 57.8 5801 39.0 1235 6.8 11503 15.7 2508 21.7 FAR EASTERN NIC 24389 35.1 2964 19.9 654 3.6 7249 9.9 1483 12.8 LATIN AMERICAN NIC 2973 4.3 605 4.1 434 2.4 1478 2.0 571 4.9 ISRAEL 151 0.2 24 0.2 14 0.1 326 0.4 14 0.1 SOUTHEAST ASIA 2817 4.1 1525 10.3 31 0.2 511 0.7 83 0.7 INDIA 1390 2.0 10 0.1 4 0.0 104 0.1 22 0.2 CHINA 5888 8.5 287 1.9 57 0.3 1329 1.8 171 1.5 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 2539 3.7 387 2.6 41 0.2 506 0.7 164 1.4 OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 3318 4.8 167 1.1 124 0.7 1895 2.6 167 1.4 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES 281 0.4 134 0.9 35 0.2 639 0.9 123 1.1 I ISIC 37 ISIC 38 ISIC 39 MUANUFACTURES TOTAL IMPORTS w iron and steel engineering other industries W products MIL.USS S MIL.USS S MIL.USS S A MIL.USS S MIL.USS S WORLD 20820 100.0 362945 100.0 20968 100.0 592229 100.0 857189 100.0 EEC 6992 33.6 98360 27.1 5697 27.3 172098 29.1 213776 24.9 INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES. EXCL. EEC 7886 37.9 204953 56.5 4232 20.3 271636 45.9 353069 41.2 NEW MEMBER OF EEC 476 2.3 1466 0.4 139 0.7 5988 1.0 9194 1.1 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 4281 20.6 56055 15.4 9409 45.1 130940 22.1 204781 23.9 FAR EASTERN NIC 1922 9.2 36500 10.1 5617 26.9 80778 13.6 91262 10.6 LATIN AMERICAN NIC 1289 6.2 12636 3.5 321 1.5 20308 3.4 39202 4.6 ISRAEL 19 0.1 986 0.3 1081 5.2 2615 0.4 3732 0.4 SOUTHEAST ASIA 275 1.3 3687 1.0 721 3.5 9650 1.6 30310 3.5 INDIA 59 0.3 186 0.1 715 3.4 2490 0.4 4862 0.6 CHINA 159 0.8 1044 0.3 806 3.9 9739 1.6 16214 1.9 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 557 2.7 1016 0.3 149 0.7 5360 0.9 19200 2.2 OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 842 4.0 1494 0.4 1285 6.2 9291 1.6 66441 7.8 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES 343 1.6 617 0.2 106 0.5 2277 0.4 9927 1.2 TABLE 4 Manufacturing Imports of other Industrial Countries EMENA countries ----------------------------------------------------------- YEAR=1973 --------…-------_____________________________________________ ISIC 32 ISIC 33 ISIC 34 ISIC 35 ISIC 36 textile. apparel, wood products. paper and psper chemical products non-netal-c and leather and furniture products mineral products MIL.USS S MIL.USS S MIL.USS S UIL.USS S MIL.USS S6 EMENA. INCL. PORTUGAL 688 . 109 . 12 . 112 . 40 PORTUGAL 212 . 30 . 2 . 1S . 9 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 477 100.0 79 100.0 10 100.0 97 100.0 31 100.0 CVPRUS 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.3 0 0.1 0 0.0 MALTA 5 1.1 0 0.0 0 0.6 2 1.6 0 0.0 ALGERIA 1 0.2 0 0.0 0 0.0 4 4.4 0 0.0 MOROCCO 6 1.3 0 0.1 0 0.2 1 1.2 0 0.1 TUNISIA 2 0.4 0 0.0 0 0.3 1 1.0 0 0.0 EGYPT 14 2.9 0 0.2 0 0.1 1 0.7 0 0.1 JORDAN 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 LEBANON I1 3.1 0 0.3 0 3.2 7 7.3 0 0.1 SYRIA 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 TURKEV 22 4.6 0 0.0 1 6.6 1 1.4 1 3.7 PAKISTAN 141 29.7 0 0.3 0 0.2 1 0.6 0 0.9 IRAN 61 12.8 0 0.2 0 0.1 1 0.8 0 0 7 1 HUNGARY 39 8.2 5 6.2 2 15.6 28 28.9 6 18.1 POLAND 57 11.9 15 18.7 4 45.5 25 25.6 13 41.0 w ROMANIA 42 8.8 13 16.3 1 5.9 11 11.0 7 21.8 > YUGOSLAVIA 62 13.1 45 57.6 2 21.4 15 15.2 4 13.5 1 oTHER EMENA 9 2.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.1 0 0.0 ISIC 37 ISIC 38 ISIC 39 MANUFACTURES TOTAL IMPORTS iron and steel engineering other Industries products MIL.USS V MIL.USS S6 MIL.USS V MIL.USS % MIL.USS S EMENA. INCL. PORTUGAL 118 . 369 . 33 . 1481 . 6448 PORTUGAL 3 . 105 . 9 . 385 . 549 EMENA, EXCL. PORTUGAL 115 100.0 264 100.0 24 100.0 1096 100.0 5899 100.0 CvPRUS 0 0.0 1 0.5 0 0.1 2 0.1 14 0.2 MALTA 0 0.0 0 0.1 0 0.7 7 0.7 8 0.1 ALGERIA 3 2.8 0 0.0 0 0.0 8 0.8 301 5.1 MOROCCO 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.4 8 0.7 76 1.3 TUNISIA 3 2.9 0 0.0 0 0.0 6 0.6 41 0.7 EGVPT 0 0.0 0 0.1 0 0.3 15 1.4 109 1.8 JORDAN 0 0.0 2 0.6 0 0.0 2 0.1 6 0.1 LEBANON 0 0.0 0 0.1 2 7.2 25 2.2 51 0.9 SYRIA 0 0.0 0 0.1 0 0.2 0 0.0 13 0.2 TURKEY 1 0.8 1 0.4 1 3.3 28 2.5 267 4.5 PAKISTAN 0' 0.0 3 1.3 4 18.2 150 13.7 227 3.9 IRAN 0 0.0 1 0.3 2 6.9 64 5.9 2765 46.9 HUNGARY 42 36.7 21 8.0 4 16.3 146 13.3 297 5.0 POLANO 40 34.5 98 37.0 5 19.9 255 23.3 626 10.6 ROMANIA 8 7.1 14 5.4 0 2.t 96 8.8 222 3.8 VUGOSLAVIA 17 15.1 122 46.0 5 22.3 273 24.9 432 7.3 OTHER EMENA 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 1.9 10 0.9 445 7.5 TABLE 4 Manufacturing Imports of other Industrial Countries EMENA countries …Y------------------------------------------------------ VEAR=1981 ----------------------------------------__-------____ ISIC 32 ISIC 33 ISIC 34 ISIC 35 ISIC 36 textile. apparel, wood products, paper end paper chemical products non-wetaltc and leather and furniture products minoral products MIL.USS % MIL.US$ S MIL.USS % MIL.USS % MIL.USS EMENA, INCL. PORTUGAL 1375 290 . 34 . 244 . 134 PORTUGAL 360 65 . 6 . 26 . 32 0 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 1015 100.0 225 100.0 28 100.0 219 100.0 102 100.0 CYPRUS 3 0.3 0 0.0 0 0.4 1 0.6 0 0.0 MALTA 18 1.8 0 0.0 0 0.8 5 2.2 0 0.0 ALGERIA 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.1 0 0.2 0 0.0 MOROCCO 10 1.0 0 0.1 0 0.1 1 0.5 0 0.2 TUNISIA 9 0.9 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.2 0 0.0 EGYPT 45 4.0 0 0.1 0 0.S 3 1.2 0 0.0 JORDAN 0 :.0 0 0.0 0 0.1 0 0.0 * 0 0.0 LEBANON 3 0.3 0 0.0 0 1.4 0 0.1 0 0.0 SYRIA 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 TURKEY 36 3.6 0 0.0 1 3.1 2 0.8 2 2.1 PAKtSTAN 288 28.3 0 0.2 0 0.4 2 1.1 2 2.3 tRAN 98 9.7 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.1 0 0.0 HUNGARY 78 7.7 14 6.2 10 34.3 54 24.6 19 18.4 POLANO 139 13.7 30 13.4 6 19.9 64 29.2 30 28.9 ROMAN1A 147 14.4 51 22.5 7 2S.6 28 12.8 27 26.6 ROMANIA 14 445 257 2. 8 1. 7 21.3 VUGOSLAVIA 121 11.9 129 57.3 4 13.1 58 26.4 22 21.3 OTHER EMENA 19 1.9 0 0.0 0 0.2 0 0.0 0 0.0 ISIC 37 ISIC 38 ISIC 39 KANUFACTURES TOTAL IMPORTS Iron and steel engineering other industries products MIL.USS S UIL.USS I MIL.USS I MIL.USS X MIL.USS S EMENA. INCL. PORTUGAL 405 . 729 . 101 . 3313 . 20082 PORTUGAL 21 . 110 * 16 636 903 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 384 100.0 620 100.0 85 100.0 2677 100.0 19174 100.0 CVPRUS 0 0.0 0 0.1 0 0.2 5 0.2 20 0.1 MALTA 0 0.0 7 1.2 2 1.9 33 1.2 34 0.2 ALGERIA 0 0.1 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 0.0 6691 34.9 MOROCCO 0 0.0 1 0.1 0 0.2 13 0.5 244 1.3 TUNI SIA 0 0.0 I 0.1 0 0.0 10 0.4 90 0.5 EGYPT 0 0.0 1 0.1 0 0.3 48 1.8 710 3.7 JORDAN 0 0.0 1 0.1 C 0.0 1 0.0 20 0.1 LEBANON 0 0.0 t 0.2 28 32.8 32 1.2 49 0.3 SVRIA 0 0.0 1 0.1 0 0.2 1 0.0 114 0.6 TURKEY 5 1.4 6 0.9 3 3.4 55 2.0 518 2.7 PAKISTAN 0 0.0 21 3.3 10 11.7 324 12.' 521 2.7 IRAN 0 0.0 1 0.2 0 0.4 100 3.7 2291 12.0 HUNGARV 31 8.1 119 19.2 a 8.9 332 1 .4 797 4.2 POLAND 97 25.4 210 33.8 6 7.4 581 21.7 1179 6.1 ROMANIA 185 48.3 132 21.3 2 2.7 579 21.6 1000 5.2 YUGOSLAVIA 65 16.8 119 19.2 14 17.0 531 19.8 857 4.5 OTHER EMENA 0 0.0 1 0.2 11 13.0 31 1.2 4040 21.1 TABLE 4 Manufacturing Imports of other Industrial Countries EMENA countries …----------------------------------------------------------- VEAR=1987 -----------…-- --- -- --- --- -- --- -- ISIC 32 ISIC 33 ISIC 34 ISIC 35 ISIC 36 textile. apparel. wood products. paper and paper chemical products non-_tal ic and leather and furnituru products mineral products MIL.USS % MIL.USS S MIL.USS s MIL.USS S MIL.USS S EMENA. INCL. PORTUGAL 3693 . 500 . 51 . 587 . 258 PORTUGAL 1154 . 112 . 10 . 8t . 94 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 2539 100.0 387 100.0 41 100.0 506 100.0 164 100.0 CVPRUS 14 0.6 0 0.0 0 0.2 2 0.3 1 0.5 MALTA 15 0.6 0 0.0 0 0.1 6 1.3 0 0.3 ALGERIA 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 4 0.9 0 0.0 MOROCCO 29 1.1 1 0.2 0 0.1 24 4.7 1 0.4 TUNISIA 22 0.9 0 0.1 0 0.1 9 1.8 0 0.2 EGVPT 131 5.2 1 0.4 0 1.0 3 0.5 0 0.1 JORDAN 2 0.1 0 0.0 0- 0.2 10 1.9 0 0.0 LEBANON 5 0.2 1 0.3 0 0.9 2 0w4 0 0.2 SYRIA 1 0.1 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 TURKEY 508 20.0 1 0.2 1 3.2 33 6.4 25 15.4 PAKISTAN 834 32.8 1 0.2 0 0.3 3 0.6 a 4.8 IRAN 204 8.0 0 0.0 0 0.9 2 0.3 1 0.4 HUNGARV 159 6.3 30 7.6 7 17.7 152 30.1 23 14.1 POLAND 132 5.2 46 11.9 9 22.1 93 18.4 36 22.1 W ROMANIA 222 8.7 75 19.4 6 15.6 41 8.0 27 16.2 C vUGOSLAVIA 246 9.7 231 59.7 16 37.6 123 24.3 42 25.3 OTHER EMENA 16 0.6 0 0.0 0 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 ISIC 37 ISIC 38 ISIC 39 MANUFACTURES TOTAL IMPORTS iron and steel engineering other Industrics products MIL.USS S MIL.USS S MIL.USS MIL.USS % MIL.USS s EMENA. INCL. PORTUGAL 586 . 1268 . 167 . 7110 . 21346 PORTUGAL 29 . 252 . 19 . 1750 . 2147 EMENA. EXCL. PORTUGAL 557 100.0 1016 100.0 149 100.0 5360 100.0 19200 100.0 CvPRUS 2 0.3 7 0.7 0 0.1 26 0.5 57 0.3 MALTA 0 0.0 38 3.7 6 3.9 66 1.2 75 0.4 ALGERIA 10 1.7 0 0.0 0 0.0 15 0.3 2548 13.8 MOROCCO 0 0.0 7 0.7 1 0.4 61 1.1 377 2.0 TUNISIA 4 0.7 7 0.7 2 1.6 45 0.8 127 0.7 EGVPT 0 0.0 4 0.4 1 0.8 141 2.6 816 4.2 JORDAN 0 0.0 4 0.4 4 2.5 19 0.4 50 0.3 LEBANON 0 0.0 9 0.9 54 36.0 71 1.3 94 0.5 SYRIA 0 0.0 1 0.1 0 0.0 2 0.0 s0 0.4 TURKEY 211 37.9 39 3.8 12 8.1 830 15.5 1540 8.0 PAKISTAN 9 1.7 44 4.3 17 11.5 915 17.1 1161 6.0 IRAN 0 0.0 5 0.5 1 0.5 213 4.0 3619 18.9 HUNGARY 65 11.6 163 16.1 6 4.3 606 11.3 1304 6.8 POLAND 54 9.6 221 21.7 6 4.3 597 11.1 1444 7.5 ROMANIA 131 23.6 65 6.4 3 2.2 570 10.6 l168 6.1 vUGOSLAVIA 72 12.8 400 39.3 35 23.8 1164 21.7 1604 8.4 OTHER EMENA 0 0.0 3 0.3 0 0.0 19 0.4 3136 16.3 TABLE 5 Shares of EMENA Countries In manufactured Exports (percent) Shares in EMENA Exports to EEC Shares in Total Imports of EEC 1973 1981 1987 1973 1981 1957 MARKET ECO. ASSOC/COOP AGREEMNT WITH EEC 15.7 28.6 35.0 0.4 0.6 1.0 VUGOSLAVIA 29.1 23.1 27.1 0.7 0.5 0.7 OTHER SOCIALIST COUNTRIES 39.8 37.5 25.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 OTHER EMENA COUNTRIES 1S.3 10.9 9.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 EMENA TOTAL, EXCL. PORTUGAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.3 2.2 2.7 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES . . 5.5 7.6 9.0 Shares In EMENA Exports to other Sharos in Total Isports of other Industrial Countries Industrial Countries 1973 1981 1987 1973 1981 1987 MARKET ECO. ASSOC/COOP AGREEMNT WITH EEC 9.2 7.4 23.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 VUGOSLAVIA 24.9 19.8 21.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 OTHER SOCIALIST COUNTRIES 45.4 55.7 33.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 OTHER EMENA COUNTRIES 20.5 17.0 21.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 EMENA TOTAL. EXCL. PORTUGAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 1. . 1.2 16.4 22.1 PPR Working Paper Series Contact Ahor tor paper WPS257 Growth, External Debt , and the Sweder van Wijnbergen August 1989 M. Bailey Real Exchange mate In Mexico 31854 WPS258 Understanding Voluntary L David Brown Z. Kranzer Organizations: Guidelines for David C. Korten 69485 Donors WPS259 Dealing with Debt: The 1930s Barry Eichengreen August 1989 S. King-Watson and the 1980s Richard Portes 33730 WPS260 Growth, Debt, and Sovereign Jagdeep S. Bhandari August 1989 R. Luz Risk in a Small, Open Economy Nadeem Ul Haque 61588 Stephen J. Turnovsky WPS261 Inflation, External Debt and Sweder van Wijnbergen August 1989 M. Bailey Financial Sector Reform: A Roberto Rocha 31854 Quantitative Approach to Ritu Anand Consistent Fiscal Policy WPS262 Adjustment and External Shocks Dermot McAlease August 1989 M. Divino in Ireland F. Desmond McCarthy 33739 WPS263 How Has Instability in World Peter Hazell August 1989 C. Spooner Markets Affected Agricultural Mauricio Jaramillo 30464 Export Producers in Developing Amy Williamson Countries WPS264 Two Irrigation Systems in Herve Plusquellec H. Plusquellec Colombia: Their Performance 30348 and Transfer of Management to Users' Associations WPS265 The Influence of Imperfect Alexander Yeats Competition in International Markets: Some Empirical Evidence WPS266 Policy Changes that Encourage Mansoor Dailami August 1989 M. Raggambi Private Business Investment in 61696 Colombia WPS267 Issues in Income Tax Reform in Cheryl W. Gray Developing Countries WPS268 Shortcomings in the Market for John,wakeman-Li n September 1989 S. King-Watson Developing Country Debt 33730 WPS269 Women in Developmeno: Issues Women in Development August 1989 J. Lai for Economic and Set or Analysis Division 33753 PPR Working Paper Series Contact iil Author A% for paper WPS270 Fuelwood Stumpage: Financing Keith Openshaw September 1989 J. Mullan Renewable Energy for the Charles Feinstein 33250 World's Other Half WPS271 The Industrial Labor Market and Katherine Terrell Economic Performance in Jan Svejnar Senegal: A Study of Enterprise Ownership, Export Orientation, and Government Regulation WPS272 Women's Changing Participation T. Paul Schultz in the Labei Force: A World Perspective WPS273 FY88 Annual Sector Review: Population and Human Population, Health and Nutrition Resources Department WPS274 The Demography of Zaire: Miriam Schneidman Review of Trends in Mortality and Fertility WPS275 Revised Estimates and Fred Arnold August 1989 S. Ainsworth Projections of International 31091 Migration, 1980-2000 WPS276 Improving Rural Wages in India Shahidur R. Khandker August 1989 B. Smith 35108 WPS277 The Effect of Formal Credit on Shahidur R. Khandker August 1989 B. Smith Output and Employment in Rural Hans P. Binswanger 35108 India WPS278 Inflation and the Company Tax Anand Rajaram September 1989 A. Bhalla Base Methods to Minimize 60359 Inflation-induced Distortions WPS279 What Determines the Rate of Paul M. Romer Growth and Technological Change WPS280 Adjustment Policies in East Asia Bela Balassa September 1989 N. Campbell 33769 WPS281 Tariff Policy and Taxation in Bela Balassa September 1989 N. Campbell Developing Countries 33769 WPS282 EMENA Manufactured Exports Bela Balassa September 1989 N. Campbell and EEC Trade Policy 33769 WPS283 Experiences of Financial Distress Tipsuda Sundaravej in Thailand Prasarn Trairatvorakul