48015 Yemen Economic Update is a quarterly report produced by the World Bank Country Office in Sana'a. It consists of several section covering major political, social and economic developments. It also provides information Inside this Issue: on ongoing World Bank operations in Yemen, and a list of conferences and donor activities. Summary Recent Economic Developments Macroeconomic Development Structural Reforms and Policies Outlook Economic and Sector SUMMARY Dialogue Yemen's parliamentary election is set for April 2009.1 Last New and Noteworthy fall, disputes over the electoral process have caused the main World Bank Operations opposition party to announce its boycott of the coming elections. Thereafter, opposition protests over the electoral process have increasingly turned violent in some parts of the country. A number of recent reconciliation efforts, most notably by the US and the EU, seem to have been able to ease the tensions and narrow the divide between the ruling General People's Congress (GPC), and the main opposition bloc, the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP). However, the likelihood of holding broadbased elections on time is looking increasingly uncertain, as time needed to recast some of the disputed electoral registration processes is running out. Holding successful elections on time will have significant implications, not only for political stability but also to carry some of the much needed economic reforms. The Government is making progress in curbing AlQaida The World Bank Group Yemen (AQY) activities. Following attacks on foreign Sana'a Office interests and military installations last summer, the Government initiated a largescale counteroffensive campaign, leading to the capture and killing of a large For more information about items in this number of key operatives of the group. The increased Update contact Ali Alabdulrazzaq (aalabdulrazzaq@worldbank.org) in the security efforts seem to have succeeded in curbing the World Bank Office, Sana'a activities of AlQaida in recent months. 1At the time of releasing this report, it was announced that an agreement has been reached with the opposition to postpone the elections for two years, while carrying a comprehensive revision in the electoral system The truce with the rebel Houthi group continued to hold, despite occasional flareups. In the wake of the new peace deal, the Government announced measures to expedite the delivery of emergency and humanitarian aid and the reconstruction of the wartorn area. However, such efforts have been progressing slowly, being hampered by the continued instability in the regions. Supported by higher oil prices, the economic performance in 2008 witnessed moderate overall improvement. Preliminary results show some improvements in GDP growth, external and fiscal accounts, but higher inflation. Earlier GDP growth estimates point to an increase to 4.9 percent, underlying the continued good performance in the nonoil sector at about 9 percent and the slower decline in oil production to about 3.3 percent (compared to 12.6 percent in the previous year). Higher oil prices should also reflect positively on the fiscal and external sectors. With the average oil prices expected to be some 34 percent higher than the pervious year and with the modest fall in domestic crude output, the external and internal accounts should improve. Higher oil revenue and continued progress in tax collection efforts should reflect positively on fiscal accounts. In the external sector, the current account deficit is expected to shrink to about 1.6 percent of GDP as compared to about 6 percent in 2007. Inflation, however, and despite the slowdown in food prices in the second half, will settle at above the PRSP goal of 10 percent. Yemen's macroeconomic indicators are expected to deteriorate in 2009. Yemen is facing a number of economic and political uncertainties in the year ahead. These are related to external shocks such as the depressed oil prices, the turmoil in the world financial markets, and the instability in the horn of Africa. Domestically, the Government faces a number of political challenges related to the forthcoming parliamentary elections, the peace process in Sa'ada, and the continued threat from Al Qaeda. The upcoming onstream of LNG production in mid 2009 will mitigate the impact of falling oil revenue, thus helping to partially offset the impact on growth and other macroeconomic indicators. As a result, the fiscal deficit is expected to widen to about 10 percent of GDP while growth is likely to slow down to about 4 percent. With falling imports bill mitigating the near 30 percent decline in oil exports revenues, the external current account is expected to show modest deterioration, resulting in a deficit of about 2 percent of GDP. Inflation is expected to be among the few positive developments, with the rate expected to drop to around 10 percent as headwinds from the global economic recession will maintain commodity prices depressed. The pace of structural reforms is expected to show more speed in 2009. The Government undertook some reform initiatives in a number of areas in the last two years, including the civil service and public financial management (PFM), the sales and income tax systems, anticorruption, and the social safety. However, the pace of implementation has been slow. With the recent macroeconomic developments and the sharp decline in oil revenue, a new sense of urgency is expected to encourage a faster pace of economic reforms. Major reforms expected to be completed in the months ahead include the passing of new laws on customs, income taxes, investment, and telecommunications, and institution of the by laws of the land registration authority. The poverty situation in Yemen in 2008 was affected by two adverse shocks First, the historic floods in the South in October 2008 resulted in losses and damages of about 8 percent of GDP. The nonoil GDP growth is estimated to have worsened by about one percentage point and the public cost alone of rebuilding infrastructure could run up to US $400 million. Poverty in the more seriously affected Hadramout Governorate could sharply rise if insufficient remedial action is taken. Second, the global increase in food prices during the first half of the year as continued from the pervious year, has contributed to aggravating the poverty situation nationwide. With an estimated 35% of Yemen population living below poverty line, the increase in global food prices, estimated by 60 percent between 2007 and mid 2008, is likely to have aggravated the poverty situation, particularly for the poor in urban areas, and the landless, small and marginal farmers. Earlier estimates have put the number of Yemeni who have fallen below the poverty level as a result of the price increase by at least 6 percent. Global food prices have moderated in the second half of 2008, but they remain high by historic standards. 3 I . R E C E N T P O L I T I C A L A N D S O C I A L D E V E L O P M E N T S The Government is making progress in curbing AlQaidaYemen (AQY) activities. Yemen witnessed rising security threats from AQY in 2008. The fundamentalist group stepped up attacks targeting oil infrastructure, foreign interests, and military installations. The most visible incident was the suicide bombing of the US embassy in March, which claimed 16 lives. In response, the Government initiated a largescale counteroffensive campaign, leading to the capture and killing of a large number of key operatives of the group. In parallel with the military efforts, the Government launched an ambitious nationwide program to control mosques and close some religious schools. The increased security efforts seem to have succeeded in capping the activities of AlQaida in recent months. However, the threat of Islamic fundamentalism in Yemen is not likely to go away soon. One reason is the emerging signs of strengthened links between AQY and other branches of the organization in the region, as evidenced by the recently released video tape showing two ex Guantanamo Bay Saudi nationals joining the group as commanders. Another reason for concern is the deteriorating economic situation, which could encourage more youth to join the group. Reconstruction plans of the wartorn area in Sa'ada Governorate are moving slowly. In the wake of the peace deal, announced unilaterally by the President in July 2008, the Government announced plans to deliver emergency humanitarian aid and allocate YR10 billon for reconstructing damaged areas in the governorate. The conflict has left wide destruction in civilian infrastructure like schools, clinics and houses in the Sa'ada province. Additionally, during the height of the conflict this summer some 100 thousand people were displaced from their homes. In response, the Government has set up Saada Reconstruction Fund, which already launched subsidies to people affected as part of the first phase of the rebuilding Saada. The total cost of the first phase is about $4.4 million distributed to 900 people by four payments to be allocated to rebuild damaged houses in the province. Its scheduled second phase would assist 1289 people in a number of areas of the province. Despite these positive developments, reconstruction efforts are moving slowly. This is attributed to the continuing unstable security situation marked by intermittent skirmishes in some regions. Progress is also affected by the shortage of public funds caused by falling oil revenues and the competing demands from the floods incidence in the South. Tribal infighting and kidnapping of foreign nationals continue to undermine the authority of the Government in rural areas. Yemen witnessed a pickup in kidnappings of foreign nationals and tourists in rural areas in recent months. In midDecember, three Germans were taken hostage by tribesmen, and in earlyJanuary, another three South Africans were kidnapped by another tribal group. Kidnappings by tribes are a common occurrence in Yemen, and are usually motivated by local grievances related to infrastructure and welfare matters, or demands to release tribesmen convicted for regular crimes. Kidnapping incidents, as in the two recent cases, ended up peacefully with hostages unharmed. Overall, the continued kidnapping incidents in Yemen, especially coming in a time of rising fundamentalist terror, is posing significant threats to the tourism industry. It is possible that these incidents will increase, as the Government struggles to implement its current plans for spending cuts. 4 The date for Yemen's parliamentary elections at April 2009 remains unchanged, despite the continued deadlock. In October, the main opposition party announced its boycott of the coming elections, therefore raising concerns over aggravating the already fragile political situation. Among the main contentious issue is the opposition demands to change the 2001 electoral law so as to adopt proportional voting and permit voters to cast ballots in their home districts rather than at work. Opposition protests over the electoral process have increasingly turned violent in recent months. A number of reconciliation efforts, most notably by the US and the EU, seem to have been able to ease the tensions and narrow the division between the ruling General People's Congress (GPC), the main opposition bloc and the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP). However, the likelihood of holding broadbased elections on time is looking increasingly remote, as time needed to recast some of the disputed electoral registration processes is running short. Meanwhile, a number of military, security and government officials including nine ministers have resigned from their posts in late December in their bid to run for the upcoming elections. Among the officials resigned are Deputy Premier for Defense and Security, Legal Affairs Minister, Deputy Premier for Interior Affairs, Civil Services Minister, Sana'a Mayor, Youth and Sport Minister, Education Minister and State Minister of the Parliament. Holding successful elections on time will have significant implications, not only for political stability but also to carry some of the muchneeded economic reforms. Currently, the opposition occupies 63 of 301 seats dominated by the ruling General Peoples Congress Party. The next elections for the president, which were last held in 2006, will not be due until 2013. Efforts to control sea piracy are yielding positive results. Maritime navigation in the southern part of the Red Sea has come under increased threat of sea piracy in 2008, witnessing about 100 attacks on freight and passenger vessels in waters adjacent to Yemen. The Government established a counter piracy regional center in the southern part of the Red Sea, and received further international support in this regard. A number of countries including the United States, France, Russia, and India have sent naval forces to patrol the waters of the Gulf of Aden. Towards the yearend, these efforts seem to have succeeded in curbing the attacks, which if left unchecked could damage Yemen's efforts to attract foreign investment, particularly in the South that exports hydrocarbons and has ongoing plans for offshore exploration. The likelihood of improved political situation in Somalia, following the recent elections, should help to curb the incidents of sea piracy and also ease the pressures of illegal immigrants to Yemen, which according to UNCHR sources have seen some 70 percent increases in 2008 to about 50 thousand persons. Floods and heavy rains hit Yemen in October 2008, Figure 1. Allocations to Yemen's floods recovery causing one of the most serious natural disasters to the country in the last decade. Wadi Hadramout valley and AlMahra were the hardest hit areas by GoY 200 floods which killed some 90 people and displaced an KSA 100 additional 20,000 to 25,000 others. Overall, about 700,000 persons--over 50% of the total population in Others 14 the affected areas--have had their livelihoods UAE 35 Arab Fund destroyed or significantly affected, of which two WB 35 135 thirds lived in Wadi Hadramout. Prompt and generous assistance from the Government, neighboring countries and the humanitarian community provided has prevented a high number of 5 deaths and suffering among the survivors. So far, international donors have committed pledges amounting to $320 million--with additional $200 million allocated by the Yemeni government2. Estimates by the World Bank suggest damage of about $1.64 billion, of which 22 percent is tied to public infrastructure. It is worth noting that the disaster in Yemen has affected the economy in a very special manner, concentrating its effects on the following sectors of economic activity, presented in order of decreasing importance: the productive sectors (agriculture, livestock, fishery, industry, commerce and tourism), the social sectors (shelter, education and health), infrastructure (transport, power, water and sanitation, and telecommunications) and several other crosssectoral activities (the environment, religious facilities and cultural heritage). This fact classifies this event as a productive social disaster, rather than one in which destruction of infrastructure is the preeminent effect. Yemen is taking new steps to narrow the gender gap. Yemen ended up last on the 2008 World Economic Forum (WEF) list of countries in closing the gender gap. The list indicates the level of economic, health, political and education inequalities between men and women in 128 countries surveyed. In recent years. Yemen has made progress on women health and education fronts, but still lags behind in relation to political and economic inequalities. In an effort to broaden female political participation, the Government announced on several occasions plans to allocate 15 percent quota for women in Parliament. However, this proposal did not materialize as conservative MPs showed strong resistance. In early 2009, a new law was passed establishing maternity leave rights for women employed in the public and private sectors. More recently, the Parliament passed a new legislation setting marriage age at 17 (but allowing court judges the liberty to rule marriages if "in the best interest of a child"), while establishing strict penalties for violators. Parliament also passed amendments that would allow women greater legal protection in relation to marriage and motherhood while providing them with the right to alimony and recognition of the mother as the sole guardian of her children, as well as imposing some restrictions on the right of men to polygamy. On broader human rights issues, Yemen's maintenance of Juvenile Death Penalty as one of only four countries implementing this penalty reflects the slow progress the country is making in spite of recent efforts by the ministry of Human Rights to improve the Juvenile jurisdiction. The upcoming parliamentary election is expected to bring renewed efforts to improve gender and human rights. 2In late December, the Cabinet approved the establishment of a special fund to reconstruct areas damaged by floods in Hadramout and al- Mahra. The Fund, which officially will start operations in mid February 2009, has already handed over a quarter of the ready sites for rain-affected people. 6 I I . M A C R O E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T S The price of crude oil seems to have bottomed at Figure 2. Brent� Europe Spot Prices ( $/bbl) about $40 per bbl. During the second half of 2008, oil 140 prices witnessed a sharp and steady decline from 130 120 their July peak of $146 per bbl, reaching a four 110 year low of $32.4 per bbl in late December. Prices 100 90 stabilized, thereafter, averaging about $42 per bbl 80 70 in the first six weeks of the year. The sharp retreat 60 in the second half of 2008 was due to falling global 50 40 demand, with an estimated reduction of 1 to 2 30 percent. Oil prices are likely to show less volatility Jan-08 Jan-09 for the remaining of the year, as the reduction in demand associated with the continuing global recession is likely to be offset by OPEC cuts in production (which by February 2009 has made cuts amounting to 4.2 million bbls). Despite the sharp fall in the second half of the year, international crude oil prices have averaged about $97 per bbl in 2008, nearly 34 percent higher than a year ago. For Yemen, the average price of crude oil exports in 2008 has averaged about $95 per bbl as compared to $73 per bbl in 2007. 3 Table 1. Oil Production, Trade, and Consumption (in million bbls unless otherwise indicated) 2006 2007 2008 * % change 07 % change 08 Crude oil output (gross) 133.3 116.7 109.4 12.5 6.3 Crude oil output (net) 130.4 113.3 107.8 13.1 4.9 State's share inc. royalties 85.7 72.7 71.4 15.2 1.8 Companies share inc. cost oil 44.7 40.6 36.1 9.2 11.1 Exports of crude oil 1/ 105.5 83.1 78.1 21.2 6.0 of which: Government share 63.7 42.4 44.5 33.4 5.0 Sales of crude to domestic refineries 35.4 33.5 37.8 5.4 13 Domestic refinery consumption of crude oil 22.5 27.0 25.0 20.0 7.4 Consumption of refined products (million tons) 5.3 5.7 6.1 7.5 7.0 Source: Ministry of Oil and Minerals, CBY, and WB estimates. 1/ sum of companies share of production and government share in exports as published by CBY Government revenue from oil exports in 2008 went up by 42 percent, mainly reflecting higher prices. While total Yemeni crude oil production slipped by some 6 percent in 2008 (as compared to earlier projections of 3.3 percent), government share of exports (in bbls) went up about 5 percent increase (total government take that includes crude processed in local refineries remained unchanged) over the previous year. This apparent discrepancy reflects, in part, the buoyant state of oil prices during the year, which have contributed to reduce allocations to oil companies for their cost recovery. In general, the concession agreements in Yemen follow the standard practice which allows the operating companies to recover their exploration and development costs annually as a portion of produced oil defined in terms of costs. 3Yemeni exports comprise two major crudes: Marib light crude (API 49) which currently trades at par or with a slight premium to Brent and the heavier Masila Blend (API 32)which sells at a discount of about $2 per bbl. 7 Table 2. Government Share of Crude Oil Exports, and Sales for Domestic Refining Year (million barrels Value of exports Implicit export Exports 1/ Domestic Total (million $) price ( $) 2000 71.9 31.1 103 1969 27.4 2001 68.9 30.0 98.9 1585 23.0 2002 65.1 26.2 91.3 1600 24.6 2003 65.4 26.9 92.3 1828 27.9 2004 61.7 24.8 86.5 2260 36.6 2005 60.5 26.1 86.6 3115 51.5 2006 63.7 22.5 86.2 4013 63.0 2007 42.4 27.0 69.4 3088 72.9 2008 44.5 25.0 69.4 4396 98.9 % change in 08 4.9 7.5 0.0 42.4 35.6 Source: The CBY Monthly Review 1/ including YCOI and Aden refinery. 2/ oil transferred to Aden and Marib refineries. Nominal GDP in 2008 is estimated at $27 billion, Fig 3. Real GDP Growth in Yemen, 200208 (in %) about 10 percent higher than the previous year. In real terms this represents a growth rate of 4.8 15 percent as compared to 4.7 percent a year ago. The 10 2008 growth rate underlines a 3.3 percent decline 5 in oil GDP that is offset by some 9 percent growth 0 in nonoil activities4. It should be mentioned that 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -5 the current GDP estimates for Yemen are undergoing major revisions which include -10 rebasing from 1990 to 2000, changing the -15 estimation methodology for the contribution of the Oil Non-oil sectors Real GDP(2000 base) informal nonoil, and revising the GDP deflators. Figure 4. Yemen: Monthly Price Indices, 2007�08 Figure 5. Major Global Price Indices (% change over the same period last year) (in nominal $US [2000 = 100]) 500 40 450 35 400 30 350 25 300 250 20 200 15 150 10 100 5 50 0 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 2006M1 2006M7 2007M1 2007M7 2008M1 2008M7 2009M1 Energy Non-energy commodities Agriculture Metals and minerals All-items I. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Despite easing in the second half of the year, the overall inflation rate is expected to increase in 2008.5 For the period January�June 2008, the allitems price index increased by about 13 percent over the previous six months, and by about 20 percent over the same period last year. Inflation rate peaked in March 2008 and then started to moderate slowly thereafter, reaching to about 11 percent in December 2008 (as compared to the same month a year ago). The decline since the second quarter has 4 These estimates do not take into account the higher than expected decline in oil production and the possible slowdown in the economy towards the year end in conjunction with the global financial crisis 5 Recent data released by the CSO indicate an average inflation rate for 2008 reaching about 19 percent as compared to less than 10 percent a year ago. The data remains provisional and likely to undergo revisions that would incorporate more recent weights than the currently used weights that use the year 1999 as a base. 8 been driven largely by lower international food prices. Overall, the inflation pattern in Yemen seems to reflect the trends in global price indices, which have leveled off during the second half of the year. International commodity prices witnessed a sharp correction during the second half of 2008, ranging from 20 percent for food commodities to about 40 percent for nonenergy and metals commodity groups. Preliminary data indicate that the overall Table 3. Summary of Fiscal Accounts 2007-08 (in billion YR) 2007 2008 fiscal balance in 2008 will result in a Budg.* Prel. smaller deficit than earlier projections. Total revenue and grants 1429 2081 2057 According to latest data released in Hydrocarbon revenue o/w: 948 1539 1494 Crude oil exports 486 853 853 February, the 2008 deficit is now estimated LNG exports 0 0 0 to run at 4.3 percent of GDP, less than the Non-hydrocarbon revenue 467 477 467 Tax revenue 315 360 367 budgeted deficit of 7 percent (and also less Income 153 194 204 than the 6.3 percent realized in 2007). The Goods & services 163 166 163 narrowing deficit occurred despite the Non-tax 151 117 99 Grants 15 65 97 passing of a supplementary budget to cover Total expenditure & net lend. 1738 2458 2289 additional expenditure related to higher fuel Current expenditure 1336 1957 1867 subsides and hikes in wages and salaries. Wages and salaries 495 592 569 Goods and services 167 167 161 The improved balance reflects savings in O & M 35 28 25 some current expenditure items and capital Interest obligations 97 127 129 Subsidies and transfers 517 1014 953 spending. Subsidies 410 818 765 Transfers 107 196 188 Other 25 29 30 Capital expenditure 278 434 375 Net lending 76 67 47 Overall balance 309 377 232 * including supplementary budget Owing to the lower oil prices, the 2009 budget projects a widening deficit to about 8 percent of GDP. The budget, issued in early November 2008 under the assumptions of oil price of $55 per bbl and a GDP growth rate of 9 percent, focused the bulk of adjustment efforts on the fuel subsidies, which amounted under the combined original and supplementary budgets of 2008 to 818 billion YR. These savings were anticipated to Table 4. 2009 Budget composition n under various oil price scenarios come from falling benchmark 2008 budget * 2009 budget 2009 budget @ international energy prices, and (at $55 bbl) (at $40 bbl) from new reforms aimed at Bil. YR % Bil. YR % Bil. YR % improving energy efficiency and Tax Revenues 331 23.7 395 27.3 396 31.8 Oil Revenues 887 63.6 834 57.7 625 50.2 narrowing the gap between the Other Revenues 110 7.9 138 9.5 145 11.7 domestic and international prices. Foreign Grants 66 4.7 79 5.5 79 6.4 The share of capital spending in Total revenue 1394 100.0 1447 100.0 1245 100.0 Wages & salaries 501 27.8 568 29.4 568 30.9 total expenditure shows little Goods & services 292 16.2 314 16.3 314 17.1 change from its level in 2008 at Subsidies & social 468 26.0 524 27.1 431 23.4 about 21 percent (although in Fuel subsidies 314 17.4 367 19.0 244 13.2 Unclassified 28 1.5 29 1.5 29 1.6 GDP terms it shows a slight Capital spending 507 28.1 498 25.8 498 27.1 decline to about 7 percent). Total expenditure 1802 100.0 1932 100.0 1840 100.0 Balance 408 485 595 Balance (% GDP) 7.5% 8.6% 10.7% * does not include supplementary budget passed in October 2008 9 Table 5. Estimated savings in expenditure under Decree 467/2008 In view of the falling oil prices, the In Billion of budget of total Cabinet passed a decree in late YR allocation (%) cuts (%) December aimed at reducing expenses Wages & Salaries 3.9 %0.7 %5.3 and containing the negative impact on Costs of goods and services 40.3 %12.8 %55.2 the deficit. Already indicating a high Subsidies and social benefits 10.0 %1.9 %13.8 fiscal deficit of about 9 percent of GDP Unclassified expenditures 5.8 %20.0 %8.0 under the $55 per bbls oil price Capital expenditure 12.9 %3.2 %17.7 assumption, the 2009 budget would have Total 73.0 %3.7 %100.0 resulted in a widening of the deficit to Source: MOF about 11 percent if oil price projections were lowered to $40 bbl. This is notwithstanding other possible adverse implications of lower hydrocarbon revenue caused by delays in the startup of the LNG plant, shortfalls in tax revenue as a result of the economic slowdown, and possible delays in donors disbursements. Earlier announcements made in the media regarding Decree no. 467/2008, indicated that the aim was to bring a 50 percent acrosstheboard cuts in expenditure (with the exception of wages and salaries). However, as further details emerged, it was revealed that the Decree will reduce expenditure by some YR73 billion only (i.e. 3.7 percent of total expenditure or about 1.28 percent of GDP). Combined with the impact of lower oil prices to $40 per bbl, these new cuts will result in lowering the budget deficit from 10.7 to 9.4 of GDP (assuming an average oil price in 2009 of $40 per bbl.). Decree 467/2008: A Brief Outline In mid December 2008, the Cabinet issued Decree 467/2008, amid concerns over falling oil prices and widening the fiscal deficit in the upcoming fiscal year. The Decree is designed primarily to bring reductions in nonpriority expenditures. Among the main expenditure items affected by Decree are the following: Wages and salaries: To remain unchanged except for bonuses Goods and services: to be cut by 50% unless for utility services, rents and food and clothing for the military Operations and maintenance: To be cut by 50% Subsidies and transfers: Cuts of 50% made to Grants to SOEs and others Social benefits government employees Capital projects: to freeze all new projects not co-financed by donors. The decree also contains some directives aimed at enhancing revenue collection and cutting some other expenditure items without setting up specific quantitative targets. Among these measures are the following: Accelerate the application of Biometric System and the reporting of the violating cases to the Ministry of Finance. Accelerate arrangements to retire employees who reached one of two limits for different job levels. Halt implementing the Salaries and Wages Strategy steps that could create new financial burdens. The implantation of the Decree is to be reviewed every quarter and amended in accordance with developments in the oil market. It should be mentioned that the Decree in its current format is fragmented and lacks many specifics, which would make the task of estimating its final impact problematic and subject to some guess work. In this sense, it would have been more conducive to start with a specification of the desired level of change in expenditure and revenue, and then have worked out the details. The current account balance is expected to show some improvement in 2008, following the notable deterioration in 2007. The deficit in 2007, estimated at 6 percent, came after a long trend of positive current account balances and steady growth in the country's foreign reserves. The deterioration was largely influenced by falling oil exports by about 9 percent (oil has more than a 90 percent share in commodity exports) and the surge in imports bill. The latter reflects rising global inflation and increased imports of equipment for the ongoing liquefied natural gas project. The deficit is expected to narrow in 2008 to about 1.6 percent of GDP on the strength of hydrocarbon export revenues and the moderation in imports growth. 10 Table 6. Components of CAB 200709 (in US$ million) . Fig 6. Current account balance 1999-2008 (% of GDP) 2007 1/ 2008 2/ 2009 2/ 15 Trade balance 440 1153 596 Exports of Goods 7050 8626 6312 10 Hydrocarbons 6264 7771 5395 Imports of Goods, f.o.b. 7490 7473 5716 5 Services Balance 1144 1030 1092 - Net Income receipts 1350 2138 1492 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Net current transfers 1426 1482 1298 (5) Current Account Balance 1508 533 690 Current Account (% GDP) 6.1 1.6 1.7 (10) 1/ preliminary 2/ Projected Foreign reserves continued to rise, albeit at a Figure 7. Monthly CBY foreign reserves and slowing pace, reaching $8.17 billion at the end of crude oil prices 2008 November 2008. This represent some 6 percent 9.0 1 50 increase over the beginning of the year and 8 .5 1 00 8 .0 5 0 equivalent to a comfortable 11 months of imports. The 7 .5 7 .0 0 rise in reserves is almost solely accounted for by high D ec -Jan- F eb -M ar-A pr-M ay-Ju n- Jul- A u g-Se p -O ct-N ov- oil prices over the period. As oil prices began to cool 07 0 8 08 0 8 08 08 0 8 08 0 8 08 08 0 8 off in the second half, the growth rate of reserves Int. re se rve s O il p rice showed moderation, particularly as the CBY continued to draw down to maintain a stable exchange rate. Table 8. Public Debt at end of Period (million of US$) Reflecting the smaller fiscal deficit, Yemen's Change net public debt showed modest nominal 2007 2008 % increase of about 4 percent in 2008. Public 1. Net Domestic Debt 1,612.7 1,852.8 14.9 Banks (incl. CBY) 1,139.5 963.5 -15.0 debt originates from both domestic and Non- Banks (Securitized) 1,590.2 2,233.0 40.0 foreign financing, with the former consisting Government Deposits at Banks 1,117.0 1,343.7 20.3 mostly of T bills held by domestic banks and 2. External Debt 5,820.2 5,886.2 1.1 nonbank investors. There is a small non� Multilateral Creditors 3,046.7 3,071.0 0.8 securitized debt, which has been declining Bilateral Creditors 2,773.5 2,815.2 1.5 steadily in recent years to less than 13 percent Total Public Debt 7,432.9 7,739.0 4.1 of the total stock of domestic debt in 2007. Treasury bills are issued at 3, 6 and 12 months maturities; with current average yield close to 16 percent. About 60 percent of the T bills are acquired by Non banks such as the Pension Fund, while the remaining 40 Table 7. Yemen outstanding external public debt percent are held by local banks. Net public debt (in million US$) (domestic and external) decreased from 30 percent of end 08 % chg. GDP in 2007 to about 29 percent in 2008. The fiscal Bilateral 2,815 1.5 deficits in 2007 and 2008 were financed mainly by Paris Club Countries 1,758 1.2 NonParis Club Countries o/w: 862 1.9 drawing down government deposits at the central bank, Saudi Arabia 356 4.6 and by borrowing from the domestic bank and nonbank China 181 4.1 sectors. Others 196 2.6 Multilateral o/w: 3,071 0.8 Yemens external public debt amounted to about $5.9 IDA 2,095 1.1 AFSED 646 14.0 Billion at the end of 2008. Relative to GDP, Yemens Grand TOTAL 5,886 0.4 overall external debt has been showing steady decline in Total as % of GDP 21.9 11 recent years, reaching about 22 percent at the end of 2008. All external public debt is owed to official creditors, and is mostly on concessional terms. Just over half of this debt was owed to multilateral creditors and the rest to bilateral creditors (of which $0.37 billion to Saudi Arabia and $.28 billion to Japan). Among the largest new sources of external financing in 2008 are Arab donors (such as AFSED and Saudi Arabia) and China. Notwithstanding the moderate financial needs in the short term, Yemen faces fiscal sustainability challenges in the longer run, as its oil output continues to fall and as alternative nonoil revenue remain underdeveloped. This would call for expediting structural reforms to diversify the sources of revenues and reduce unproductive expenditure. The exchange rate of the Yemeni Rials against the US dollar has been held steady in 2008, averaging about 199.8. In an effort to minimize the inflationary impact of weakening dollar, the CBY slowed down the depreciation of the domestic currency and maintained a relatively stable exchange levels over the last two years. To implement this policy, foreign currency sales by the CBY had to be stepped up during the year. With the current strengthening of the US dollar, falling global inflation, and receding foreign currency earnings, the CBY is expected to resume in 2009 its past policy of 35 percent annual depreciation of the Yemeni Rial versus the dollar. Table 9. Pledge Allocations & Effectiveness By donor as of February 2009 Pledged Allocated Signed Disburse (in million $) In percent of pledges (%) I. GCC Bilaterals 2677 79.5 26.0 0.4 1 Saudi Arabia 1227 85.3 47.0 0.8 2 Oman 100 100.0 56.0 2.0 3 Untied Arab Emirates 650 76.9 12.0 4 Qatar 500 56.4 5 Kuwait 200 100.0 II. Multilaterals (Regional and International) 1932 86.5 46.0 3.2 6 Islamic Development Bank 200 100.0 16.0 0.3 7 Arab Fund 786 100.0 42.0 0.1 8 World Bank (IDA) 514 100.0 89.0 11.7 9 IFAD 70 41.4 23.0 10 OPEC Fund 20 100.0 100.0 11 Arab Monetary Fund 220 12 UN System 90 100.0 13 Global Fund 32 100.0 100.0 III. Bilaterals (OECDDAC and Others) 1106 60.7 40.0 22.6 14 European Commission 100 100.0 11.0 15 Germany 190 90.0 53.0 42.1 16 Netherlands 166 55.0 55.0 52.2 17 United Kingdom 230 100.0 66.0 24.8 18 France 160 46.0 26.0 5.6 19 Italy 12 100.0 100.0 20 Denmark 9 86.0 86.0 78.9 21 USA 21 48.0 48.0 22 Japan 38 31.6 18.0 23 South Korea 140 17.0 17.0 24 China 40 Total 5715 76.6 36.0 5.7 Source :MOPIC Despite the good progress made on their allocation, the pledges made under the Consultative Group meeting in London in 2006 have so far been slow to disburse. These pledges stood at about 12 $5.7 billion (including an additional pledges made after the CG meeting) with about 55% in the form of grants and the rest in concessional loans. The share of GCC bilateral in these pledges amounts to about 47 percent (or $2.7 billion). Good progress has been made allocating these pledges with about 78 percent already appropriated to specific projects. Disbursement, however, has been slow so far, amounting to less than 6 percent by end of February 2009. This partly reflects the normal lag in the implementation of projects, but the authorities also indicated some delays in coming to terms with individual donors procedures. It is expected that disbursements will pick up significantly in 2009. The growth rate of money supply witnessed some Table10. Monetary Survey (in billion YR) moderation in 2008, averaging about 12 percent as 2006 2007 2008 compared to 14.4 percent in the previous year. Money Supply 1,414 1,651 1,878 Money 558 614 681 This has largely been influenced by the slowdown Currency outside Banks 413 426 473 in net domestic assets, with the growth rate of credit Demand Deposits 146 188 208 to the private sector falling almost by half to 18 Quasi Money 855 1,038 1,197 Time Deposits 191 283 389 percent as compared to 35 percent a year ago. In a Saving Deposits 93 104 114 uncommon move, the CBY eased in April the F. Currency Deposits 454 516 535 reserves requirement on domestic currency deposits Earmarked Deposits 55 69 93 Pension Fund Deposits 62 65 67 from 10 to 7 percent, while eliminating the 13 Factors affecting Money Supply percent remuneration on reserves. Meanwhile, the Net Foreign Assets 1,675 1,734 1,857 reserves requirements for foreign currency deposits Central Bank 1,419 1,483 1,580 remained unchanged at 20 percent. It also o/w Assets 1,498 1,549 1,632 Comm. & Islamic Banks 256 251 277 exempted some bank liabilities from being subjected o/w Assets 275 278 309 to reserves requirements, therefore helping to ease Net Domestic Assets 261 83 21 liquidity. Towards the year end, the CBY lowered Net Claims on Government. 89 67 94 Central Bank 291 222 163 the benchmark minimum interest rate on bank o/w Claims 3 0 106 deposits from 13 to 12 percent. The realignment of Comm. & Islamic Bank 203 289 257 interest rates on the Yemeni Rial came as another o/w Claims 203 289 257 step to reduce the cost of financing for imports and Claims on Nongovernment 269 375 511 Private Sector 266 359 424 the cost of lending in general. The CBY used its full Public Enterprises 3 15 87 allowance of Treasury bills to absorb domestic Other (net) 442 524 584 liquidity in the first nine months of the year, and Change in % Broad Money 21.7 14.4 12.1 has since relied on its certificates of deposit (CDs) Net Domestic Assets 59.2 68.4 125.4 and additional foreign exchange auctions. Credit to private sector 17.9 35.1 17.9 Yemen is likely to weather the immediate impact of the current financial crisis, while the longer run impact remains uncertain. A number of independent and official reports have analyzed the implications of the current global financial crisis on Yemen. The reports concur that the implications in the shortterm are limited, while in the longerterm they are inconclusive owing to the paucity of data and uncertainty about possible length and severity of the crisis. The findings could be summarized as follows: a) Yemen has a relatively a small exposure to foreign banks and its domestic financial market remains underdeveloped. The shortterm impact through the banking sector is expected to be limited. b) Risks to the Government's foreign assets appear to be small as they are largely held in low yielding deposits and secure bonds. 13 c) One of the main risks is seen through oil price shock and its impact on government revenue. Currently, oil accounts for about a third of total public revenue. Yemen could weather the impact of lower prices in the short run by liquidating foreign reserves (currently standing at about $8 billion or 11 months of import), and tapping into the domestic debt market. External financing, which relies exclusively on concessional sources, is not likely to witness a large reversal in the short run despite uncertainties regarding some of the bilateral donors. d) In addition to its impact through public spending, the current global financial crisis could affect growth (and balance of payments) through direct investment (FDI) and foreign remittances channels. e) The current crisis is expected to Table 11. FDI flows to Yemen 2002-2007 (million US$) reduce the flow of FDI, both in the oil 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 and nonoil sectors. The former will FDI� non-oil 797 855 898 932 2438 2536 be affected by the lower return in the growth (%) 21.6 7.3 5.1 3.8 161.5 4.0 sector, although moderating FDI�oil 114 181 144 -302 1121 877 international costs for drilling and growth (%) -15.6 59.1 -21.0 -310.4 -471.1 -21.8 exploration could be an offsetting factor. In the nonoil sector, the crisis Source: CBY reports is likely to lower FDI flows, which comes mostly from the Gulf and tend to concentrate in tourism, real estate, and some manufacturing industries. It has to be mentioned that in the case of Yemen, political stability plays a paramount role in shaping the level of FDI flows. f) Yemen has a large expatriate population abroad, with many with established residency status in the Gulf and elsewhere. The current crisis could have negative implications on the level of remittances, though the magnitude is not certain. Currently, these remittances are estimated to amount to about 5 6 percent of GDP. 14 I I I . S T R U C T U R A L R E F O R M S A N D P O L I C I E S Reforming the education system remains one of the key development challenges. Over the last 10 years, some improvements were noticed in areas such as schooling access, particularly in rural areas, and narrowed gender gap. However, there are also signs that the Yemeni education sector continues to suffer from a number of structural weaknesses underscored by low literacy rates and poor quality indicators. The latter has been recently confirmed with the results of the 2007 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), where Yemen came at the bottom of a list of 36 surveyed countries for respective scholastic abilities at the fourth grade level. Recognizing the current shortcomings, the Yemeni Government with the help from international donors, is awarding increased attention to the general education system. The National Basic Education Development Strategy is well under implementation. In 2007, the Ministry of Education (MOE) has introduced, for the first time in the country, program budgeting to basic and secondary education. The MediumTerm Expenditure Framework (MTEF), covering 2007 � 2010, has been approved to enable the MOE to better plan education development. To date, Yemen has achieved some improvements in basic education, by introducing various innovative approaches. These measures includes: (i) Conditional Cash Transfer to grades 49 girls. (ii) Whole School Improvement scheme. (iii) Female teacher contracting. (iv) Establishing a Center of Measurement and Evaluation. (v) Participation of more than 5,000 students in Trends in International Mathematics and Science Studies (TIMSS) 2007 at grade four. (vi) MOE's leadership in designing coordinated policy for school health and nutrition. In addition, (vii) tying teacher posts to school. While a supplydriven model of subsector development was the main instrument during the past 5 years, MOE is now paying attention to the demandside factors of enrollment and retention and to education quality and learning outcomes. Despite a quality constraint in educational data, the enrollment is in an increasing trend over the past decade. Efforts are also underway to develop an integrated education vision. The initiative is led by the Ministry of Planning and in coordination with three education ministries, as well as the Ministries of Finance and Civil Service. The task team is formed to investigate the current education situation and subsector strategies through Country Status Report, which will later feed into development of an integrated education vision. In the area of secondary education, the Government approved the National General Secondary Education Strategy in 2007, which focuses on improvement of quality and relevance, reducing gender disparity and regional disparity in terms of access and completion, and institutional capacity building. The strategy also addresses the role of the private sector as a provider of education at the post basic education level. Recently, the Government has launched the Secondary Education Development and Girls Access Project, financed by 5 donors, including the World Bank. In addition to general education, increasing attention has been given to vocational and postsecondary education. Yemen's Technical Education and Vocational Training Sectors are still very small, and thus far, the Government has been investing substantially in expanding enrolment capacity. The new IDA operation will address the needed reforms to strengthen the role of employers and the private sector and increase the relevance, quality and efficiency of training programs. The Government also has a sound strategy for development of higher education and is coordinating donor assistance to renew and update the university system. The Tax Authority announced intentions to enforce the full implementation of the GST system as of the beginning of 2009. The current GST rate is set at 5 percent on all products except for some 40 15 items where the rate varies from 10 to 25 percent. Additionally, essential products such as wheat and sugar, are exempted from taxes. The GST system had been approved in 2004, but it has been facing stiff opposition from the private sector, who argued that its implementation would bring unreasonable administrative and financial burdens, especially in the presence of a variety of other forms of taxes and duties. After a number of compromises and rollbacks, the Government set early 2009 as the deadline for full implementation. According to the decision, the sales of all businesses with annual volume exceeding YR50 million should be subjected from the beginning of the year to a 5 percent sales tax. However, the extent of compliance and implementation would not be known for another few more months. The Tax Authority is currently reporting that about 500 new businesses have registered in first two months of 2009, thus representing an increase of about 30 percent in the number of large taxpayers that are required to register. Work is currently focused on simplifying the administration of the GST and completing the identification and registration of the new taxpayers. The tax will be collected in three phases. Phase one will be collected from customs or factories, phase two will be collected from wholesalers, and phase three will be collected from retailers. Currently, the implementation is in Phase two. Efforts to reform the income tax system are progressing satisfactorily. Last year, the authorities embarked on a revision of the income tax law in response to problems with the existing legislation in terms of low efficiency of revenue generation, high rate of evasion, and significant disincentives for investment. A new law has been prepared and awaiting parliamentary approval. It brings reductions in income tax rates, while drastically eliminating exemptions. For commercial, industrial, and services businesses, the tax rate is expected to be slashed from 35 percent to 20 percent (and to 15 percent for businesses that meet the set criteria for employing Yemeni workers). It is also expected to bring reductions in taxes on personal income from 16 to 10 percent. The Law will be presented to Parliament during the second quarter of 2009, simultaneously with the new laws on investment and customs. Ahead of its submission to Parliament, the Government has already prepared a set of executive bylaws compliant with international norms that are ready for implementation. The authorities have also embarked on a threeyear plan to strengthen the capacity of tax administration. In this area, the FIAS team has been working actively with Government. Yemen continues to lag in the area of customs processing and trade facilitation. According to the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) of 2007, Yemen ranked 113 globally (out of 178 countries), and 8 in MENA (out of 11 countries surveyed). In addition, according to the Doing Business Survey 2009, the cost of trading across borders for Yemen remains very high ranking the country at 126, which is worse than the regional average. In 2007, ASYCUDA PLUS, an automated information system for customs data, has been implemented in all major sea and airports. Currently, the system covers 97 percent of Yemeni imports. Plans to implement an advanced web version of the system, ASYCUDA WORLD, in 2008 have not materialized, owing to the delays in donors financing. Current ASYCUDA system is accessible for other agencies like the tax authority, CSO, and the central bank and some three hundred commercial companies. In addition, electronic manifest system has been approved for 35 major shipping and freight companies. The improvement in custom valuation and clearance processes aided by ASYCUDA should eventually help in reducing the cost of doing business. The inspection system for containers by using xray has been implemented in seven main customs checkpoints. Customs business process reengineering project, started in 2005 with the aim of improving efficiency, 16 is moving ahead satisfactorily. In the past, tardy processing of customs refunds is reported as an issue. In recent months, the Government initiated steps to reduce fuel subsides. Soaring oil and fuel prices in 2008, has helped to push the subsidy bill to an unprecedented $3.5 billion, equivalent to about 12 percent of GDP, thus exceeding individual development spending, wage payments and social expenditures. It also led to the appearance of shortages in the domestic market especially for diesel, LPG and electricity. To deal with this situation, the Government intimated a comprehensive plan to phase out fuel subsides to households, while implementing a number of interim measures that have primarily targeted the nonpoor. In the first instance, and given the current high levels of poverty, the Government is pursuing a plan to enhance the social safety nets as a prelude to the phasingout of fuel subsides. The plan also includes steps to improve energy efficiency in the areas of power generation and distribution (savings can be achieved by switching from oil to gasbased generation, and by improving distribution efficiency and revenue collection) and in petroleum refining sectors. Meanwhile, seeking to narrow the price gap, the Government has already undertook some partial measures since early 2008 related to LPG, electricity for commercial use, diesel for industrial use, and unleaded gasoline (see table 12). Table 12. Domestic Prices of Fuel and Electricity in Early 2008 and Recent Reform Measures Item Price in early 2008 (in Action taken since early 2008 YR/l, unless indicated otherwise) Diesel for 35 In August 2008, liberalized diesel prices for large industrial users, (with consumption transport and exceeding 20,000 liters per day), who account for about 4% of diesel consumption. In other uses February 2009, the Cabinet announced a decision to lower the threshold to 5000 liters/day. Gasoline 60 Introduced unleaded 90-octane gasoline (imported) in February 2009 with a new price of 80 YR/l. Consumption of this grade of gasoline remains very small. LPG 400 (YR/cylinder) Increased price of LPG cylinder by 25% to YR500 in the beginning of 2008. Kerosene 35 No change Jet fuel 36 No change Diesel to PEC 17 No change HFO to PEC 25 No change Electricity 17 (YR/Kwh) Price charged to business users was increased from 17 to 30 YR/Kwh in Dec 2008. Households and small businesses (unregistered) continue to pay a maximum of 17YR/ Kwh. Yemen continued to experience power shortages. In the aftermath of the summer 2007 riots, the Government made pledges to deal decisively with power cuts and expedite plans to expand power capacity and coverage to rural areas. Yemen is one of the least electrified countries in the region with only 42 percent of the population (87 percent in urban areas and 23 in rural areas) having access from the national power grid which is subject to frequent power cuts. In an attempt to meet the demand in the shortrun, the Government sought purchases from independent power producers (IPP). The measure proved to be too costly as the volatile diesel prices led to an escalation in the total bill. Also with delays in payments from the Public Electricity Corporation (PEC) side and uncertain fuel supplies, some IPPs were forced to suspend their sales. Another part of the strategy was to expedite the expansion plans that use natural gas for power generation. Yemen has currently two such projects in the pipeline, which once completed, could add an additional capacity of 730 million MW to the existing 700 MW of diesel fueled capacity by 2011. The two projects are Marib I and II in Marib province where natural gas is produced. Marib I, with a capacity of 340 MW, is nearly complete with delays of more than one year. Marib II is expected to be complete in 2011. Yemen has also two other projects in the design stage, Maabar and Belhaf, 17 which remain uncertain regarding the sources of financing and the availability of natural gas. It is worth mentioning that despite the current power expansion plans, no allocation (certification) of natural gas has been made to any of the projects. In related news, the Parliament ratified the Electricity Law of 2009, which sets a new regulatory framework for the sector, particularly with issues related to the role of private and foreign producers and government procurement guidelines. Table 13. Planned Expansion in Gaspowered Electricity Generation in Yemen Plant Capacity Gas consumption expected date Status of implementation MW (Tcf for 25 years) of completion Marib I 341 0.68 Second quarter Power plant complete, but inoperative due to delays of 2009 in substations Marib II 400 0.80 2011 Bidding and procurement procedure revised and completed and is now under evaluation Maabar 400 0.80 unknown Completed feasibility study only. Financing from the private sector is uncertain and might be covered by public funds/borrowings. Belhaf 400 0.8 unknown Same as Maabar. Yemen is facing an alarming water crisis. Yemen has already one of the world's lowest rates of per capita water availability (125 m3/person/year as compared to MENA average of 1250 m3/person/year). It has no perennial surface water and depends entirely on rainfall, groundwater, and flash flooding. The scarcity of water resources is aggravated by the rapid depletion of ground water, which has recently been exceeding the recharge rate in the country's major basins and causing the water levels to witness rapid decline (e.g. the rates of annual groundwater (GW) decline in Sana'a and Saada basins are about 47 and 56 m, respectively). The bulk of GW is consumed by agriculture (90 percent), while domestic usage accounts for only 8 percent. The rapid increases in water consumption are expected to cause per capita water availability to dip below 100 meters per year in the near future. Moreover, the uncontrolled mining of GW is creating problems of equity, an unsustainable "bubble" of agricultural prosperity, and competition between urban and rural for the resource. The main causes of the rapid GW depletion in Yemen could be summarized as: a) the rising demand as population grows and marketled agriculture develops; b) the weak institutional framework that has promoted expansion rather than efficient use and sustainable management; and c) the weak capacity of governance. To arrest the GW decline, the Government must remove various subsidies to agriculture production (such as those for diesel fuel, agricultural interest rates subsidies, import restrictions on some fruits and vegetables, and qat, and apply proper charges to water resources to reflect their scarcity. In addition to removing price distortions on water resources and other inputs to agriculture, the Government needs to take other regulatory measures to encourage farmers to adopt conservation agriculture and efficient modern irrigation (e.g. piped conveyance system, and sprinkler, bubbler, and drip irrigation). Most of these measures have been outlined in National Water Sector Strategy and Investment Program (NWSSIP 2005 2009). However, the outcome of the Strategy has been mixed due to inadequate resources and implementation. It is worth noting that the World Bank is currently preparing a Water Sector Support Project ($90 million) to cofinance the Water Sector Support Program ($341 million) under the NWSSIP. In the financial sector, the authorities initiated a number of reforms in 2008. These reforms include (i) Passage of a deposit insurance law and establishment of a deposit insurance corporation; (ii) Amendments to the 1994 Islamic Banking Law to eliminate restrictions on foreign ownership and 18 allow commercial banks to open an Islamic branch (under discussion in Parliament); and (iii) A microfinance law to allow the establishment of non-banking financial institutions (in Parliament). The Government intends to further the reform in the financial sector in the next two years. Plans call for establishing a credit registry bureau, a corporate governance code, and a stock exchange and a securities and exchange commission. The CBY also intends to boost its internal capacity in enforcing existing prudential standards and regulations on the banking sector. The mining sector is expected to undergo significant reforms. Given the diminishing oil resources and the need to attract foreign capital and technology, reforms in the mining sector, which represent one of the country's most promising industries, are needed urgently. A pending legislation will replace the existing mining law, and in so doing will significantly modernize and standardize sector regulation in accordance with international best practice. This, despite the need to complement the Law with provisions to limit the environmental damage and the use of water and timber by investors. Following the ratification of the Law, the authorities are expected to focus on redesigning the administrative procedures, licensing and mining regulations. In a related story, progress in the Jabali Project, the biggest ongoing private mining venture with an estimated cost is $214 million, was announced to be on track and ready for completion by early 2010. The project is expected to produce some 800 thousands tons per year of lead and zinc, and have sizable employment generating impact. It is also expected to result in secondary regional benefits such as improved infrastructure and services. The implementation of the new sector's reforms as well as the success of Jabali mine project, which is likely to promote investment in Yemen and should encourage international exploration and mining companies to develop the countrys untapped resources. Faced with dwindling oil revenue and growing financing needs, the Government is planning to boost the role of private sector in the provision of infrastructure. A PublicPrivate Partnership (PPP) Unit has already been established in the Ministry of Planning to guide the process. The Government is currently preparing a strategy and a law on PPP with support received from the IFC. The new law, which will complement existing laws on procurement and privatization, will establish the legal framework to address the procedures for preparing, tendering and implementing PPPs including the allocation of responsibilities and decision rights concerning PPP within the public domain. As such, it will provide guidance to all stakeholders involved and to ensure transparency in the establishment and implementation of PPPs. In general, successful development and implementation of PPP is driven by three main factors: a) A clear policy and legal framework stating the objectives of PPP, the methods for their achievement and the implementation mechanism. b) A wellestablished institutional framework that defines in a transparent manner the responsibilities and decision rights among various public agencies. c) An effective financial framework that incorporates clear financing schemes including the role of risk mitigating insurances and the cost recovery mechanisms. While in theory, implementing these measures sound straightforward, successful implementation of PPP in Yemen could face a number of challenges, particularly given to the past experience with the privatization program, the weak administrative capacity in the public sector and the underdeveloped nature of the domestic financial sector. A recent study prepared by IFC suggests that the Government should approach PPP by adopting a medium term program that includes priority sectors and projects and reform actions in areas such as subsidies, capital markets and capacity building at various agency levels. Among the specific proposals put forward by the study is the establishment of two separate entities, one that focuses on promotion, knowledge building and training, coordination, program and 19 policy development, and project preparation; and another, as an Infrastructure Development Company (IDC) for PPP that focuses on procurement and investment activities. I V. O U T L O O K The economic performance in 2009 is expected to weaken. Yemen is facing a number of economic and political uncertainties in the year ahead. These are related to global and regional issues such as the level of international oil prices, the current turmoil in the world financial markets, and the instability in the horn of Africa. Domestically, the Government is facing political challenges related to the forthcoming parliamentary elections, the peace process in Saada, and the rising threat from Al Qaeda. The coming onstream of LNG production in June 2009 will help to mitigate � but not completely offset the impact of falling oil production and prices. As a result, GDP growth rate is expected to remain relatively unchanged at about 4.3 percent, underlying growth rates in the oil and nonoil sectors of about the same magnitude (i.e. 4.4 and 4.2 percent, respectively). The weakening economic performance will also be reflected on the fiscal and external account deficits, which will widen to about 9 percent and 2 percent of GDP, respectively. Inflation is expected to be among the few positive developments, with the rate expected to drop to less than 10 percent in many years as headwinds from the global economic recession will maintain commodity prices depressed. This outlook does not take into account the possibility of lifting fuel subsidies during the year. The Central Bank of Yemen is expected to resume its policy of slow depreciation of the Yemeni riyal versus the dollar, but this will not have significant inflationary impact as the dollar is expected to maintain strength against other major currencies in 2009. Reforms are expected to continue in 2009. A midterm review of the DPPR is already underway. The revision will cover the first two years and set the planning targets for the remaining period (that is, until 2010). The revised plan will consider the changing circumstances that have emerged since the inception of the Development Plan for Poverty Reduction (such as the persistence of poverty, the outlook of oil production, and the continued rise of global inflation) and revise its scope accordingly. Special emphasis is expected to be placed on strengthening economic diversification, improving energy efficiency, and strengthening social safety nets. Reform efforts will particularly focus on the areas of financial sector development, governance and anticorruption, decentralization, and the general investment climate. Major reforms expected to be completed in the months ahead include new laws on customs, income taxes, investment, and telecommunications, and the by laws of the land registration authority. Longer term outlook for Yemen offers more worrying prospect, particularly in view of the challenges facing its main revenue earners, oil and agriculture, and the fast pace of population growth. Oil production which currently accounts for about 60 percent of government revenue is diminishing at a fast pace, while agriculture which employs more than half the workforce faces widespread water scarcity and soil depletion due to extensive cultivation of qat and poor water resources management. Yemen is seeking to empower the private sector, improve the investment climate and encourage diversification and liberalization of the economy to attract capital, especially from the Gulf. So far little success has been achieved in this regard as corruption and lack of transparency and competition has limited the achievement of these objectives. 20 I V. E C O N O M I C A N D S E C T O R D I A L O U G E I. Private Sector Development Mining Policy Reform Project. In September 2006, IFC, PEPMENA signed an agreement jointly with the Ministry of Oil and Minerals to support the Government efforts to develop the country's mining industry. The Project is divided into three key phases: Diagnostic Assessment, Change / Redesigning, and Implementation. The first phase has been completed successfully. A Working groups (WGs) and subworking groups has successfully been formed and identified from all relevant stakeholders for the second phase of the project to identify Legal and Fiscal texts, regulations, decrees, directives that need redrafting. In early 2007, international and local consulting firms were contracted to carry out a variety of assignments. A year later (2008), the project had produced its first solid results, including an internationally competitive fiscal regime in the form of a mining tax section for the new Income Tax Act. In addition, a Mining Law is being drafted, and licensing procedures are being rationalized. Next steps will involve redesigning of Administrative Procedures, Mining Law/Regulation, designing of National Mining Strategy and Review of GSMRB in parallel association with awareness raising activities and lobbying discussions with parliamentarians to push new laws and fiscal changes through legislative process. The mining code and executive regulation are on their way to cabinet for approval and to be submitted to the parliament for final approval, as for the project's main objectives was a mining package which has been delivered since November 2008. II. Education and Health and Social Policy A. Education Towards the Development of an Integrated Education Vision A mission was conducted between January 24 � February 3, 2009 by a technical team of the Education Country Status Report (CSR) to discuss preliminary findings of the technical analyses. A workshop was held among government, private sectors, and development partners to discuss issues on access and quality of education, education financing, labor market relevance of education, and governance issues. Basic Education Development Project A joint IDA, Netherlands, DFID, and KfW supervision mission of the Basic Education Development Project (BEDP) took place during February 1018, 2009. The mission discussed with the Government on the progress of the BEDP since the Midterm review in April 2008 and the way forward. Secondary Education Development and Girls Access Project The Secondary Education Development and Girls Access Project (SEDGAP) has been launched by a launch workshop during February 79, 2009. The Memorandum of Understanding among development partners has been signed on February 7th. A field visit to target governorates will be conducted by the MOE and DPs between February 2126, 2009 in order to induce governorate ownership of the program. Education For All Fast Track Initiative A preappraisal mission of Education for All Fast Track Initiative (EFAFTI) Phase III Grant took place from December 1323, 2008. The mission agreed with the Government and development partners in the main activities and implementation arrangement of the FTI Phase III grant. The Government is currently preparing detailed monitoring framework and action plans. 21 B. Health In Health, the World Bank is providing finances to two new projects. As the current Health reform Support Project ends on August 2009, the World Bank will finance two new health projects, to be implemented by MOPHP: 1) The Schistosomiasis Project: The proposed project would support the GoY's efforts towards the elimination of urinary and intestinal Schistosomiasis as a public health problem in Yemen. The project objective is to decrease the prevalence and intensity of infection of both urinary and intestinal Schistosomiasis among schoolaged children by 2015, in endemic regions in Yemen. 2) The Health and Population Project: The project would support the GoY's efforts to achieve the 4th and the 5th Millennium Development Goals in reducing child and maternal morality, respectively. The project objective is to improve the quality and utilization of and integrated package of preventive, clinical, and public health services by 2015 is selected regions in Yemen. The Bank Continues to support the Health Sector review process. The Bank has submitted two draft reports: 1) Yemen Health Sector Review: Conceptual framework and strategy option; 2) Modalities for Financing Health in Yemen. These reports are providing input guidance to the review process. C. Social Protection � Third Social Fund for Development. � The project builds on the successful first two phases of the SFD. It enhances poor and vulnerable communities' access to social and economic services; continues to build capacity for civil society institutions, selected local governments, selected central government agencies and local consultants and contractors; and continues to support income generating activities to a number of economically active poor and vulnerable communities. The Bank is playing a leading role in coordinating among donors financing the SFD (currently there are 12 donors). The project is progressing very well in achieving its development objectives and agreed results. The Bank's Board approved US$15 million of additional financing to fill the financing gap. � In response to the food crises, the Bank has recently approved an emergency additional financing grant (financed by the Global Food Price Crisis Response TF) in an amount of US$10 million to the Yemen Third Social Fund for Development Project. The support would consist of two components: (i) cash payments to the needy through communitybased laborintensive works; and (ii) implementation support and capacity building for the Social Welfare Fund to expand and improve targeting and effectiveness, most significantly supporting the implementation of a national survey to identify the poor and introducing proxy means test to the targeting process. � Social Protection Strategy. The Government is keen on having a good understanding of poverty and vulnerability issues in Yemen and the best possible use of existing resources and institutions. Based on the Government request, the Bank is leading the development of a new and comprehensive Social Protection Strategy in Yemen. A WBI facilitated workshop was delivered in May 2006 to identify the key areas of focus of such a strategy to engage main stakeholders in the discussion. Subsequently, the preparation of a Social Protection Strategy was initiated and a stocktaking report (phase I) was completed and delivered to Government in June 2007 and a 22 Strategy Framework and Options report (phase II) was delivered in June 2008. The Bank is providing technical assistance during 2009 for the development of a strategy action plan derived from the 2008 work, as well as the institutional arrangement for multisectoral coordination, and monitoring of the strategy implementation. Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation is leading this work with the participation of relevant sectors. � Support to the Reform of Social Welfare Fund (SWF) � The Bank is providing technical assistance as well as guidance to ongoing efforts for the reform of the cashtransfer program towards more effectiveness and efficiency. The Bank support is focusing on improving SWF targeting, by introducing proxy means testing; and supporting the development of effective monitoring and evaluation system. These activities are well coordinated with ongoing EC support to the SWF. � The Bank is involved in a dialogue and project preparation for an additional finance to the workfare program implemented by the SFD, and a temporary cash transfer (through the SWF) to the poor hardy hit by the food price crises. The project will be financed through an EC Food Facility Grant, and channeled to the World Bank through a Bankmanaged trust fund. The grant amount expected is EURO 18.3. � Implementation of Children and Youth National Action Plan to Advance Achievement of MDGs: Following the approval of the National Children and Youth Strategy, the Children and Youth Action Plan was prepared in collaboration with the relevant line ministries and based on the recommendations of the strategy. The Bank is providing technical support to the implementation and monitoring of the action plan. Bank's technical assistance is focusing on the development of M&E for progress towards MDGs. � Youth Employment Pilot.: This is a grant received from Japanese Fund for Social Development to help initiate a pilot with specific focus on offering second chances in terms of job readiness services and promoting job creation opportunities through introducing business incubation services. More importantly, the development of business incubation services through this pilot will help maximize the impact of the existing training and employment funds by utilizing the loans / credits extended through these funds more effectively for job creation and sustainability while contributing steadily to the reduction of overall unemployment rates. � National Disability Strategy and Action Plan. A report "Transition Towards an Inclusive Future" was delivered to the GOY in 2007. The TA provided a situation analysis of disability in Yemen and a strategic framework to support the government in its transition from a social assistance to an inclusive approach to disability. Significant outcomes were achieved during the course of this TA, including: 1) defining the strategy framework which emphasizes inclusionary policies and practices and integrating disability issues into mainstream institutions;(2) the identification of the sectors of Yemeni society that need to be addressed by a national strategy; (3) consensus on a inter agency technical committee on disability that will assume principle responsibility for the development of the National Disability Strategy; and (4) a plan of action for the development of the Strategy. Bank follow up support to the strategy development continued in 2008 within the TA support to the Social Protection Strategy and continues in 2009 within Social Protection Strategy implementation support. 23 V I I . N E W & N O T E W O R T H Y L A W S , D E C R E E S , A N D A G R E E M E N T S The Cabinet Approved a law for restructuring the Police Academy. Approved a decree to open a higher medicine institute in AlRaima Governorate. Formed an economic task force to monitor the impact of world financial crisis on Yemen's economy. Approved a law for additional allocations for the general state budget for FY 2008 amounting to YR660 Billion. Approved the communications and information technology law and the real estate possession by nonYemenis law had been. Emphasized that all government bodies should refer to the Ministry of Legal Affairs in cases, which requires court ruling. Approved the National Local Governance Strategy. Approved a decree of land allocation for erecting new port in Socotra in Karma district Reviewed the MOU of Yemen joining the cooperation protocol regarding fighting the environmental pollution with hazardous and poisonous material. Reviewed the set up of the official Yemeni Government website. Reviewed the report of the current situation and prospects of land, sea and air transportation sector in Yemen. Approved an agreement for coastal fishing in Yemeni regional waters Approved an Environment Management Plan for AlShori forest area in Kamaran Island, Al Hodeidah Governorate. Approved a cooperation agreement between Yemen and China in the field of culture. Approved a decree for the formation of a preparation committee for the first national workshop on the rights to benefit from ground water. Issued Law No. 51/2008 for FY 2009 State Budget Approved a decree for setting up General Authority for Regulations of Land Transportation. Approved executive bylaws for Law 17/1994, for General Provisions of Violations. Approved the 50% cut in 2009 General State Budget due to the fall in oil prices; salaries were exempted from the cuts. Approved referring amendments to Law 2/1991, regarding the diplomatic and consular services Approved a decree on judicial fees. Approved a report of the mechanism for the collection of taxes and fees imposed on tourism facilities. Issued Decree No. 293/2008, regarding establishment of Reconstruction Fund for Floods Affected Area was issued. Approved a oneday pay donation from all government, public and mixed sectors and private funds employees in favor of Palestinians in Sector Gaza. Approved a decree for national framework for biological safety. Approved the Yemens accession to the Beijing 1999 amendment to Montreal Protocol, regarding OzoneDepleting Substances. 24 Directed the Ministry of Transport, to prepare TOR and required documentation for selecting another specialized company for studying economic and marketing situation of Sanaa International Airport, for its upgrade; and selecting a company for its operation. Issued a republican Decree No. 291/2008, regarding setting up General Authority for Regulating Land Transportation Affairs. Discussed proposed amendments to the Law No. 26/1996 for General Environment Protection Authority. Referred to special ministerial committee draft decrees regarding the amendment of some laws pertinent to work of private companies in Yemen. Referred to Economic Council draft decree regarding establishing the national committee for food constitution or National Codes Committee. Approved the action plan for 2009, which includes 367 subjects to be discussed during 50 ordinary cabinet sessions during the year. Approved statute for national educational evaluation and standards center. Discussed the private education institution situation, and formed a committee to establish their compliance with Law No. 11/1999. Approved bylaws for Tender Law No. 23/2007. Approved a law for Yemeni Navigation Chamber. Approved a credit agreement signed between Yemen and Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development for 14 mln Kuwaiti Dinars towards operations of Social Fund for Development Phase III. Approved a loan agreement between Yemen and Korean Bank of Export and Import for financing YemeniKorean High Technical Institute in the amount of $15.3 Million; Approved a loan agreement signed between Yemen and Saudi Fund for Development towards the funding of AmranSanaaDhamarTaizAden highway project for $125 Million out of its total cost of $950 Million; Approved a law on the Skills Development Fund presented by the Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Planning and International Cooperation; aim of the fund is to develop technical and vocational capacities and enhancing work productivity in public and private sectors; Approved a strategy for upgrading and improving civil status registry during 20082015 in regulatory and institutional fields; Endorsed terms of reference and necessary documentation for selection of a specialized international company to manage Aden International Airport and operate its land services. Approved a law for Protection of National Production. Reviewed a National Strategy for Solid Waste Management 20092013. Discussed the report of the security situation in the country. Approved executive bylaws for the Local Trade Law No. 5/2007. Discussed preparations of the National Human Rights Strategy. Reviewed the report of the outcomes of the 66th conference of GCC. Other Governments Saada Reconstruction Fund approved its action plan for rebuilding damaged houses and government facilities in several districts of Saada Governorate until August of next year. Per assessment, around 8,697 facilities, houses and farms were damaged in Saada, and 749 in Harf Sofian. 25 The Higher Tenders Committee approved 26 tenders at a total cost of YR14.5 Billion, for the projects in the fields of road construction, media, electricity, technical education, health and water. High Tender Committee approved tenders for building 3,458 housing units at the total cost of YR15.4 Billion in the framework of AlSaleh Housing Project for Youth with Limited Income. Agreement was signed between National Water and Sanitation Authority in Aden and Hook Company, for establishing AdenAbyan sewerage for $2.1 Billion, with 80% funded by KFW and 20% by the Yemeni Government. The Ministry of Oil and Minerals formed a technical committee for formulation of oil, gas and mineral sector national strategy. The Ministry of Industry and Trade granted licenses to 238 trade companies with the capital of YR52.9 Billion in 2008 compared to 232 companies with the capital of YR6 Billion in 2007. The Private Sector The Capital Secretariat announced a black list of names of the private companies and contractors who do not adhere to stipulated provisions, these companies should be banned from entering competition for new tenders. Interax Petroleum Services Company granted Yemen YR15 Million for mitigating damages in floodaffected areas. Handover of Aden Container Terminal and Mualla Port has been completed between Yemen Gulf for Aden Ports Corporation and Dubai Ports International. An agreement was signed between Aden Fardous Company for Real Estate and Industrial Investment and Italian Dimoon Company for construction of a fourstar hotel and tourist suites complex at a cost of $20 million in preparation for Gulf Cup 20 Games. An MOU was signed between Aden Free Zone and Saudi AlWad Corporation for setting up a commercial complex on the area of 146 ha at the cost of $600 Million. MOU was signed between Aden Free Zone and Bathwab Investment Company regarding establishing a saltproducing project at a cost of $5 million with 50,000 tons capacity per annum. A MOU was signed between Aden Free Zone and Bin Mahfouz Real Estate Development Group regarding establishing a medical complex in AFZ. A MOU was signed between Aden Free Zone and Venice Company for Real Estate and Tourism Development regarding setting up a tourism complex at the amount of $10 Million. An agreement for rehabilitation of Aden Salt Corporation was signed between Yemen Economic Corporation and Kenyan KimoSalt Company. An MOU was signed between Aden Free Zone and Italian SMI Company for building a sun energy production plant at a cost of $300 Million with annual capacity of 200 Mega. Agreement signed between Aden and Dubai Company for Ports Development for an extension of storage yards project in Aden Container Terminal for Aden Free Zone at a cost of YR 1 Billion to be implemented by Real Estate Shefa Company. An MOU was signed between the Ministry of Fisheries and Asdaf AlYaman Company for farming shrimps in the Red Sea coast at the amount $12 Million. Small Industries Fund offered loans for 1,094 projects for YR939 Million in total from January to September 2008. The European Union has granted machinery and equipment worth $197,000 to the Tehama Development Authority. 26 The Small Enterprise Development Fund in Ibb financed 131 industry, trade and services projects at the total cost of YR 85 Million during 2008. Seminars and Workshops A regional symposium on The Role of Tribes was organized by the Yemeni Observatory of Human Rights in cooperation with Canadian International Development Research Center during October 68; A workshop on Girls Education for mosque preachers was organized in AlHodeidah by the Ministry of Endowment and Islamic Affairs in cooperation with UNICEF during October 89; Training on Opposing Violence against Women for mosque preachers was organized in Aden by the Ministry of Endowment and Islamic Affairs in cooperation with UNFPA during Oct. 1314; A workshop on Health Education for NGOs was organized in Aden by the Reproductive Health Program supported by UNFPA during October 1213; Women National Committee in cooperation with UNFPA has organized a session on gender dimensions and human rights methods in programming during October 1820. Women National Committee has organized a training course on Fighting Gender Basis Violence for journalists and media workers during October 2428. Human Rights and Rural Women Economic Empowerment Program was launched by MADA Foundation in cooperation with French Social Development Fund on October 20; AlFardous Women Development Foundation has organized a training course on AIDS/HIV prevention in Aden during October 1820. Celebration of International Day of Anti Child Violence was organized in Aden by Safe Childhood Center in cooperation with Swedish Save the Children on October 18; An awareness campaign under the motto Stand Up and Take Action was launched by Yemeni Coalition for Global Campaign Against Poverty during October 1719; A workshop on Life Skills was organized by the Ministry of Education in cooperation with Arab Education Bureau during October 2527; A workshop on Importance of Public Funds Declaration was organized by the Supreme National Authority for Combating Corruption on October 26. The Supreme Elections Committee for Elections and Referendum launched Women Empowerment Program for 20082010 with an objective of improving womens participation in elections. A workshop on Women Workers Protection was organized by the Development Center for Culture and Combating Violence in cooperation with German Friedrich Ebert Stiftung Foundation during November 45; A workshop on Girls Education was organized by the National Womens Committee in cooperation with Oxfam during November 78; Two workshops on Raising Awareness among Youth on Civil and Political Rights were organized by the Democracy Schools in cooperation with International Foundation for Electoral Systems and UN Democracy Fund during November 912; A workshop on Statistics and Information on Family Planning and Reproductive Health was organized in Ibb by the Office of Public Health and Population in cooperation with UNFPA during November 1213; A workshop on Raising Youth Awareness on Civil and Political Rights was organized by the Democracy School during November 2425; 27 A training course on integrating population issues into the annual plans, was organized by the National Population Council in cooperation with UNFPA during December 25; A training course on Disseminating Knowledge About the Risks of Child Trafficking, was organized by the Democratic School in cooperation with UNICEF during December 24; A workshop on Food Security Information System, was organized by the Central Statistical Organization in cooperation with European Commission during December 35; A workshop on Occupational Safety for Cement Industry Workers, was organized by Yemeni Cement Corporation in cooperation with American Center for International Labor Solidarity during December 1415; Yemeni women delegation participated in the third regional conference of GCC Women Parliamentarians and DecisionMaker in Oman during December 2123. The Social and Democratic Forum has launched a project Women and Political Participation in cooperation with Peoples General Congress and Joint Meeting Parties. Yemeni Network for Combating Violence against Women, conducted awareness raising meetings for male and female participants in Ibb Governorate; A workshop on Fighting HIV/AIDS, was organized by the National AntiAIDS Program in Cooperation with UNICEF during December 1719; A workshop on Leadership Skills for Youth, was organized by the Democracy School in cooperation with Middle East Partnership Initiative during December 2123; General Assembly of NGOs working for children took place during December 2122, for discussing 20092012 working plan and shadow report on child situation in Yemen. A workshop on Hazardous Work and Girls Labor, was organized by the Center for Child Laborers Rehabilitation in cooperation with Sanaa Local Council, during December 2123; An international conference on Drug Addiction Prevention, was organized by the Ministry of Interior in cooperation with Middle East Research Center for Human Rights and Development on December 2829; National Womens Committee branch in Aden convened a workshop on Recommendations of UN CEDAW Committee during January 1415. A TOT workshop on Educating AIDSAffected People was organized in Aden by Comprehensive Social Service Center in Cooperation with UNICEF during January 110. A workshop on Protecting Women and Children during Natural Disasters was organized in Hadramout by the Ministry of Social Affairs and in cooperation with UNICEF, UNHCR and UNFPA during January 1415. A training course on Microfinance for the CBY employees was organized by GTZ sponsored YemeniGerman Private Sector Development Project during January2431. Training course was organized by Womens Shadow Parliament for lobbying and advocacy aimed at increasing womens political participation during February 13. The Women National Committee appealed to all political parties and organizations in Yemen to support womens issues on all levels especially in terms of womens political empowerment in the light of upcoming parliamentary elections. The Parliament passed a law setting a minimum marriage age at 17 and granting women greater legal protection in issues related to marriage and motherhood, including right to alimony and child custody in case of divorce. A training course on Using Media to Serve Womens Issues was organized by the Yemeni Womens Union on February 25. 28 A workshop on Upgrading Training Needs and Planning Human Development was organized in Aden by the Investor Service Center during February 35. 66th Conference of GCC Health Ministers took place during February 34. A conference titled Contemporary Media: Between Freedom of Expression and Abuse of Religion was organized by the Ministry of Endowments and Guidance in cooperation with World Islamic League during February 79. A symposium on Invigorating Womens Political Participation was organized in Aden by the Social Democratic Forum on February 7. A workshop on Employment Skills in Middle East was organized by the Ministry of Technical Education and Vocational Training in cooperation with the British Council during February 1011. A workshop on Causes of Failure of Investment Projects and Means to overcome them was organized in Aden by the General Investment Authority in cooperation with German Private Sector Development Project during February 1214. A workshop to discuss New Draft Investment Law was organized by the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation in collaboration with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) during February 1112. A third training course for Youth Leaders was organized by Future Leaders Project run by the Democracy School in collaboration with Middle East Partnership Initiative during mid February A training course on Methods and Techniques of Implementing Social Welfare Survey was organized in Saada by the Social Welfare Fund during February1316. A training course on Management Skills Development was organized by the Ministry of Human Right in cooperation with the European Union during February 1316. Development Cooperation Arab Gulf Program of UNDP (AGFUND) donated 562,000 Saudi Rials to support victims of heavy rains in Hadramout and AlMahra Governorates. Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria offered $27 Million to support Yemeni National Malaria Fighting Program. Kuwait Embassy in Yemen granted $30,000 to AlTahadi Society for Disabled People. Republic of China granted $300,000 to support Yemens relief efforts in floodaffected areas. The Arab Contractors Company provided $20,000 to the people affected by flood in Hadramout and AlMahra. The Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (AFSED) extended $3 Million aid to rain affected areas in eastern governorates. AFSED pledged US$100 Million towards rebuilding floodaffected areas in Hadramout and Al Mahra. The Organization of Islamic Conference offered Yemen a grant of $250,000 to support flood affected areas. The Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) as donated YR150 Million to support the people affected by the heavy rains in eastern governorates. IsDB signed a loan agreement for US$42 Million to improve agricultural development in Abyan, establishment of silos mill in Salif, and vocational literacy projects. IFAD approved shifting development assistance to agricultural projects in Yemen for 2009 from loans to grants. 29 Thee contracts were signed between the Ministry of Public Works and all of General Department of Construction, AbdulAziz AlTam Corporation and AlAram Corporation for Construction and Commerce for carrying out construction of 800 housing units in Aden at the cost of YR3.9 Billion. Arab Bank granted YR50 million to support Yemeni government reconstruction efforts in the rainaffected areas in Hadramout and AlMahra. Germany offered $100,000 for alleviation of rain floods in the eastern governorates, in response to the appeal by the President of the Republic. Germany offered Euro36 Million grant, as extra assistance to help Yemen tackle soaring of global food prices and finance water and sanitation projects; Germany offered six grants for the total amount of US$56.2 Million to support programs in water and education sectors. Germany allocated US$200,000 as urgent humanitarian aid to Yemeni floodaffected areas. Germany's GTZ signed a threeyear financing agreement with the Ministry of Education for implementation of educational Projects for Euro 7.6 Million (and Yemeni Government will provide YR 150 Million). The United States pledged humanitarian aid to the floods affected areas, of $50,000 channeled via World Food Program. Japan provided inkind help worth $200,000 to people affected by rain floods in Hadramout and AlMahra. Japan granted Yemen $100,000 for improving educational environment in schools targeted by the Bridge project for Girls Education; Japan extended grants to two grassroots projects under the "Grant Assistance for Grassroots Human Security Projects; including YR16 Million to improving environmental and public health project in AlDhalea, and YR16 Million to improving water supply in Khamar in Shabwa. Japan granted $800,000 to assist people affected by floods in the eastern governorates of Yemen. Japan signed financing for $6.5 Million, for building five primary education schools in Yemen. Japan provided relief materials worth $200,000 to the people affected by the floods. Japan granted YR34 Million, for two projects under the Japanese scheme Grant Assistance for Grassroots Human Security Projects", including YR17 Million for drinking water supply to Al Sabrah area, and YR17 Million to construct a boy's school in Mawza area. South Korea provided Yemen with inkind emergency aid of $50,000 to contribute to the government's flood relief efforts. South Korea for a soft loan of US$15.3 Million for establishing vocational training institute The French Agency for Development signed an agreement for US$2.4 Million to support Animal Wealth. Netherlands allocated $1 million in aid to rainaffected eastern Governorates in Yemen, with $500,000 to be channeled via World Health Organization as an urgent medical assistance, and $400,000 in addition to $100,000 provided earlier will be channeled via Red Cross Committee. Netherlands signed an agreement for an additional support for $36 Million for mother and child health programs. Netherlands Government signed an agreement with the Social Fund for Development for US$15 Million for supporting education sector. The World Bank, Netherlands, UK and Germany signed a funding agreement for Secondary and Girls Education Project for USD 103 Million. 30 Cyprus donated $50,000 to Yemen to support government reconstruction efforts in flood affected areas. The Donor Joint Progress Review Mission, concluded evaluation of projects and activities under the third period of the Social Fund for Development, which confirmed that SFD continues to make excellent progress in achieving its goals. Donors pledged to grant US$248 Million to Yemen to support the National Water Program, which costs US$400 Million. UNHCR reported that donor countries have raised their contribution to refugees in Yemen from US$4 Million to US$17 Million. European Finance Bank is planning to invest around US$1 Billion in energy, mineral exploration, cement and extractive industries in Yemen. The EC allocated Euro 500,000 as humanitarian assistance to Somalian and Ethiopian refugees in Yemen The EC allocated US $19 Million to support reproductive health (US $9.5 Million) and (US $9.5) to support juvenile justice, rule of law and administrative reforms. OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) signed a credit agreement for $ 18 Million for Public Works Project. Malaysian Company and Taiz Water Supply and Sanitation Authority a signed grant agreement for US$ 267,700 to carry out a study for northwestern area sewerage project. The Republican Hospital in Aden received medical equipment from the Chinese Health mission at the total cost of YR 1 Million. 31 I I I . W O R L D B A N K G R O U P O P E R A T I O N S I N Y E M E N The World Bank is currently financing 18 projects in Yemen, including supplemental Figure 8 : Sectoral Distribution of Ongoing Projects financings, with a total commitment of USD 855 million. An additional USD 76 million Energy & in grants were committed by the Bank Agriculture/R Transport ural Sector 12% through 29 separate Trust Funds, 15 of 11% Education which are Bank-administered. Most of the 13% 21 lending operations are investment Urban Water Supply/Sanita projects, covering a broad range of Development 33% tion economic and social sectors, including Health & 8% Social urban development, health and social Protection Public Sector Management protection, education, infrastructure (energy, 13% 10% transport, water, and irrigation), agriculture and fisheries, environment, and public sector. Ongoing World Bank Operations in Yemen (as of December 31, 2008) Table 14. Project Name Close Date* Loan $ Disb. $ Disb. % Groundwater & Soil Conservation 31Oct09 56.7 28.46 50.2 Rural Water Supply and Sanitation 31Dec09 42.44 25.23 59 Irrigation Improvement Project 30Jun08 21.3 20.13 95 Sanaa Basin Water Management 3Nov09 27 13.41 50 Fisheries Resources Management & Conservation 4Nov09 26.5 1.41 5.3 Port Cities Development 30Jun10 27.1 18.14 67 Taiz Muni. Dev. and Flood Protection 3Jul10 20.5 3.93 19.2 Rained Agriculture and Livestock 5Nov09 21.5 4.51 21 Third Public Works 1Jul10 77.8 44.63 57.4 II Rural Access Project 1Jan12 40.8 19.17 47 Rainfed Agriculture and Livestock project 30Jun12 20.0 4.33 22 Power Sector Project 31Dec11 53.6 1.00 2 Civil Services Modernization 30Jun10 34.3 25.82 75.3 Institutional Reform Credit (DPL) 30Jun10 50.9 26.9 53 Health Reform Support 31Aug09 34 29.15 86 Third Social Fund for Dev. 31Dec09 80 71.62 90 Safe Motherhood Voucher Program 1Sep09 6.2 0.0 0.0 Social Fund for Development III (supplemental) 2Jan10 10 2.00 20 Vocational Training II 31May13 15 0.0 0.0 Sec. Educ. Dev. And Girls Access Program 1Jun13 20 0.0 0.0 Basic Education Development 2Jun13 115 58.74 51.1 TOTAL 800.65 398.58 50 * corrresponds to original data 32