Climate Change and Trade: Country Template Objective of the study The objective is to bring together information on trade and climate risks at the country level for developing countries to identify: (i) key vulnerabilities in trade to rising temperatures, changing precipitation and greater frequency of extreme weather events; (ii) areas where trade can play a key role in supporting adaptation to a changing climate; and, (iii) constraints that are hampering the role of trade in adaptation to climate change. The following provides a broad suggested template for organizing the available information towards addressing these issues. Template of the study A. Introduction (Brief description: this section should aim to introduce the topic at hand “climate change and trade� and describe the objectives and the methodology of the country study.) - What issues will be addressed in this country study? - Why is the topic “Climate Change and Trade� relevant? Why is it relevant for this specific country? - What is the objective of the country study? And which questions will be addressed throughout the paper? - What research methodology will be used? B. Country background (Brief description: this section should aim to provide succinct background information on the country, including its general economic profile, trade and climate regimes as well as any other background information relevant to the topic being addressed.) 1. General economic profile - Brief general description of the country, including its territory, geography, population, economic specialization, main economic indicators (GDP, employment rate, inflation rate etc.) - Brief description of the current economic situation of the country - Brief description of the country’s economic forecasts Useful sources: World Bank Open Data: https://data.worldbank.org/ Central Intelligence Agency: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/207.html The Economist Intelligence Unit 2. Country Trade Regime - What is the current structure of trade and how has it been evolving? - What are the key products that are imported and exported (goods and services)? - What are the main destinations for exports and sources for imports? - What are the characteristics of the main transport routes for imports and exports? - What are the main locations within the country where exports are produced (manufacturing, agriculture, services) and imports are used/consumed? Useful sources: World Trade Organization Trade Maps: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_maps_e.htm World Integrated Trade Solutions: https://wits.worldbank.org/ 3. Country Climate Regime - What have been the country’s/region’s trends in climate change? - Trend in annual average temperature and precipitation for the country - Variability in annual average temperature and precipitation across regions within the country - Number and severity of extreme weather events - Existing variations and corresponding livelihoods - What is the country’s share of global CO2 emissions? - Brief summary of the rules governing the country’s climate regime. o To what extent these rules enforced? - Did the country sign any international environmental treaties? Useful sources: World Bank Climate Risk Country Profiles: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country-profiles Climate Hazards Centre: https://chc.ucsb.edu/data FAO Agro-Ecological Zones Database: http://gaez.fao.org/Main.html# FEWSNET Livelihood Zones: https://fews.net/fews-data/335 International environmental agreements database project : https://iea.uoregon.edu/ C. The impact of trade on climate change (Brief description: this section should assess how the trade of goods and services within the country affects climate change. It should also assess the climate impact of trade-related transportation services.) 1. Identify key tradeable goods and services the country has comparative advantage in? - Are these goods and services from emission and energy intensive sectors? - Does the production of such goods/services lead to the degradation of natural capital and ecosystems i.e. deforestation, drought etc.? - Please populate the table in annex 1 - Add a short box illustrating the adverse climate impact of trading certain goods, if there are good examples 2. What are the main transportation modes of the country’s merchandise trade? by air, road, rail, sea? 3. What is the carbon footprint of transportation services related to trading goods? 4. How are domestic policies adopted to boost trade affecting GHG emissions? D. The impact of a changing climate on trade (Brief description: this section should aim to identify key vulnerabilities in trade due to rising temperatures and other extreme weather events; and analyze the ways in which current and future trade flows may be affected by climate change.) 1. Identify key goods and services that may be affected by rising temperatures and extreme weather events. Are these tradable goods and services? To which markets? - Review available studies on impacts of climate change on tradable products for the country concerned. - Populate the table in annex 1 - Add a short box illustrating adverse effects on a particular product that’s been affected, if there are good examples - Provide a timeseries change (visualization) of production with 10-20-year intervals, if data is available. - What are the projected products that may be grown/made in this country, given the climate changes? - Which communities are likely to be affected by the changes in future trade patterns due to climate change? 2. What could be the potential impact of adverse climate conditions on trade-related infrastructures? 3. How are policies being adopted to reduce GHG emissions affecting production and trade? - Policies being adopted by the country itself/region - Policies being adopted in the main overseas markets Useful sources: World Bank Climate Risk Country Profiles: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country-profiles United Nations Environment Programme: https://www.unep.org/ E. The role of trade in fostering climate mitigation and adaptation policies (Brief description: this section should aim to assess the role of trade, including access to new technologies, in fostering climate mitigation and adaptation policies.) 1. What opportunities exist for trade to contribute to adaptation and mitigation? - Climate- resilient infrastructure - Technological innovations (for example, drought resistant seeds in agriculture, crop diversification, green technologies and so on) - Sustainability standards - organic production/labelling - Laws and regulations 2. What are the main policy and infrastructure barriers that limit the role of trade in adapting to climate change? - Tariffs – on green goods, and imported inputs crucial for diversification (seeds etc.) - NTBs – e.g. due to different standards and costly conformity assessment for imports embodying new technologies - Poor trade facilitation - Service trade restrictions 3. How are transport and logistics infrastructure/services adapting to climate changes? - Is the transport infrastructure climate-resilient? How and what percentage? - Might ports become inundated? - Is trucking congestion rampant? Have forests been cleared to expand the road network? - What are the trade policies on importation of “green� transport goods and services? How restrictive? 4. Which communities (geographically) would have to adapt? - Which communities might need to migrate because of adverse climate conditions? - Populate the table in Annex 2 5. What are the potential implications for fragility and conflict in this area? - e.g. disaster risks from increased temperatures are expected to exacerbate existing tensions between communities for their household, agricultural and livestock needs. Do those communities produce the same output? Useful sources: African Development Bank Strategy of Climate Risk Management and Adaptation: https://www.afdb.org/en/topics-and-sectors/sectors/climate-change International Institute for Sustainable Development: https://www.iisd.org/topics/climate-change-adaptation International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) publications on climate change and conflict: https://www.icrc.org/en/what-we-do/climate-change-conflict F. Conclusion (Brief description: this section should aim to provide a summary of the findings and provide recommendations on trade measures that can promote climate change mitigation and adaptation.) 1. Summary of the findings - How vulnerable is the country to extreme weather events? - How did the country’s trade policies affect its GHG emission s and climate change? - How will the country’s current and future trade flows be impacted by climate change? 2. Recommendations - Which trade measures can the country consider in mitigating and/or adapting to the impact of climate change? - Are there concrete tools available for the country to ensure the complementary of trade and climate policies? Annex 1 Goods/services Importance Carbon Change Effect on Changes in Export Potential to country footprint Effect in production Production Market change (% of GDP & Growing (low/high Amounts Destinations in Employment Areas yields In 10 years in 10 years economic ) (drought/ (increase/dec (change/no activity flooding) rease) change) (job/inco me loss) Annex 2 Regional Distribution of Climate Type Climate Risks Migration to Livelihoo Adaptation Zones which place? d Drought Pastoral Rainfall Floods Agric e.g. place Arid X X e.g. highlands to lowlands Semi-Arid Semi-Arid highlands Sub-Moist North Sub-Moist West Sub-Humid Lowlands Moist Lowlands Moist Highlands Tepid Sub-Humid Mid-Highlands Tepid Humid Mid- Highlands Humid Central Highlands Humid