GREATER MONROVIA URBAN
REVIEW
A Spatial Analysis investigating Constraints and
Opportunities
Contents
Figures .............................................................................................................................................................. 2
Tables ............................................................................................................................................................... 3
Maps ................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Boxes ................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Images .............................................................................................................................................................. 5
Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................................... 6
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 7
Executive Summary........................................................................................................................................ 10
1. Liberia’s Linkages between Urbanization and Economic Growth ........................................................... 13
1.1. Urbanization and Demographic Trends .............................................................................................. 15
1.2. Economy of and Employment in Greater Monrovia ........................................................................... 22
2. Understanding Greater Monrovia’s Constraints to Growth and Prosperity through a Spatial Lens ...... 25
2.1. Density and Fragmentation in Greater Monrovia............................................................................... 25
2.2. The State of Informality and Risk ........................................................................................................ 28
2.3. Housing and Urban Services ............................................................................................................... 34
2.4. Connecting People to Jobs .................................................................................................................. 46
2.5. Monrovia’s Underused Real Estate and Land ..................................................................................... 50
2.6. Congested markets and waste ............................................................................................................ 56
2.7. Skills of Greater Monrovia’s Workers ................................................................................................. 61
3. Greater Monrovia’s Municipal Finance and Governance Challenge and Opportunities ........................ 65
3.1. Political and Administrative Authority is Highly Centralized .............................................................. 66
3.2. Despite centralization, the intergovernmental service delivery relationship is convoluted, leading to
inefficiencies in service delivery ..................................................................................................................... 66
3.3. Local Institutions are insufficiently resourced .................................................................................... 67
3.4. Accountability and Transparency in Financial Management and Reporting ...................................... 70
3.5. Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 70
4. Recommendations................................................................................................................................... 72
4.1. Matching roles and responsibilities more effectively across Greater Monrovia’s institutional
landscape ........................................................................................................................................................ 72
4.2. Generating fiscal space for urban interventions................................................................................. 73
4.3. Completing Property and Land Registration for Greater Monrovia ................................................... 74
4.4. Planning and Regulation in support of Greater Monrovia’s territorial development ........................ 76
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4.5. Making Monrovia cleaner, better connected, more livable, affordable and safer ............................ 77
5. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 81
References, Datasets and Leveraged Studies ................................................................................................ 82
Annex 1: Liberia’s Structural and Aspirational Peers ..................................................................................... 86
Annex 2: Wage Premium Regression Analysis ............................................................................................... 88
Annex 3: Hedonic Regression Analysis .......................................................................................................... 89
Annex 4: Area Calculations from Drone Image Analyses ............................................................................... 91
Annex 5: Real Estate Computations............................................................................................................... 93
Figures
Figure 1: Urbanization and Economic Growth (2000-2018) ............................................................................... 13
Figure 2: Sub-Saharan Africa is urbanizing at a lower GDP per capita than other regions ................................ 14
Figure 3: Loss of GDP (in percent) if capital city were removed (year 2015) ..................................................... 14
Figure 4: Liberia's urbanization level in 2018 is the same as 30 years ago......................................................... 15
Figure 5: Pattern of migration from and to Montserrado (1980 to 2016) ......................................................... 18
Figure 6: Population with migration and no migration background in 2016 (in percent and by county) .......... 20
Figure 7: Population distribution in Liberia and Greater Monrovia ................................................................... 21
Figure 8: Change in the composition of GDP is associated with a modest increase in GDP .............................. 22
Figure 9: Employment shares have barely changed over the past two decades ............................................... 22
Figure 10: Access to finance and electricity top constraints to Liberian firms, 2017 ......................................... 24
Figure 11: Global Competitiveness Index, 2018: Liberia compared to Sub-Saharan Africa ............................... 24
Figure 12: Average population density per hectare and distance from CBD ..................................................... 26
Figure 13: Population density per Square kilometer (2015)............................................................................... 26
Figure 14: The Puga Index for Greater Monrovia ............................................................................................... 27
Figure 15: Percent of Poor households and Settlements by distance to the City center ................................... 34
Figure 16: Percent Of Tenant Households By Quintile And Distance From The City Center .............................. 35
Figure 17: Estimated Rent, Utilities And Maintenance, Transport, And Food Consumption As A Proportion Of
Household Consumption For Tenants In Greater Monrovia .............................................................................. 36
Figure 18: Monthly Rents By Location And Household Quintile......................................................................... 36
Figure 19: Share Of Urban Households Who Can Afford The Least Expensive Newly Built House In 2019 ....... 37
Figure 20: Drinking Water By Consumption Quintile.......................................................................................... 39
Figure 21: Water For Washing By Consumption Quintile ................................................................................... 39
Figure 22: Access To Waste Collection, Water And Electricity By Source And Distance From CBD ................... 40
Figure 23: Waste generation rates in 2016 (kilogram/person/day) ................................................................... 43
Figure 24: Estimated waste collection rates for cities in Sub-Saharan Africa..................................................... 44
Figure 25: System Diagram Of Greater Monrovia’s Waste Management System ............................................. 45
Figure 26: Enterprise Density by zone ................................................................................................................ 46
Figure 27: Employment Density by zone ............................................................................................................ 46
Figure 28: Current mode of Transport for employed individuals to their primary job ...................................... 47
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Figure 29: Length of commute (in minutes for motorized and non-motorized transport modes (by distance of
Home from CBD) ................................................................................................................................................. 47
Figure 30: The length of Paved roads in Greater Monrovia is with 57.5 meters per 1,000 inhabitants the
lowest among select cities .................................................................................................................................. 47
Figure 31: The Density (km/km2) of all arterial roads in Greater Monrovia is the lowest among select cities
where comparable data is available ................................................................................................................... 47
Figure 32: Hedonic regression results (select variables) .................................................................................... 49
figure 33: Floor space index across plots in central monrovia ........................................................................... 51
figure 34: Built-up area vs. open space in central monrovia .............................................................................. 53
Figure 35: Bypology of parking in central monrovia ........................................................................................... 53
Figure 36: Percentage of land area dedicated to streets in north America, Europe and Oceania cities ............ 54
Figure 37: There are lot of underutilized land and buildings in central monrovia (green circles are few sample
sites) .................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Figure 38: The Location Of Toilets Vis-À-Vis Wetland Areas In Duala Market ................................................... 57
Figure 39: Estimated food loss by product ......................................................................................................... 59
Figure 40: Percent of out-of-school children by age (2015/2016) in Greater Monrovia.................................... 62
Figure 41: Percent of ‘on-track’ children by wealth quintile and grade in Greater Monrovia ........................... 62
Figure 42: Main self-reported reasons for not attending school........................................................................ 63
Figure 43: Lifetime enrollment and enrollment rates by gender for school going children .............................. 63
Figure 44: Educational attainment by gender in Greater Monrovia .................................................................. 63
Figure 45: Percent of students enrolling in different polytechnic courses in Greater Monrovia ....................... 64
Figure 46: Returns to education of formal wage Earners ................................................................................... 64
Figure 47: Greater Monrovia Governance and Service Delivery ........................................................................ 67
Tables
Table 1: Population estimates for Greater Monrovia vary by statistical approach and by source .................... 16
Table 2: Population growth rates by area and source (in percent) .................................................................... 16
Table 3: Fertility and mortality rates for urban and rural Liberia (2008-2016) .................................................. 18
Table 4: The county of origin and Destination of recent migrants (2011-2016) to and from Montserrado ...... 19
Table 5: Educational attainment of stationary population and migrants (population >=15 years of age) ........ 21
Table 6: Why did people move? self-reported reasons for migration (household heads)................................. 21
Table 7: Primary sector of employment of workers in Urban Montserrado/Greater Monrovia ....................... 23
Table 8: Wages in Monrovia are not significantly higher controlling for employee characteristics .................. 27
Table 9: Informal settlements in each LGA area of Greater Monrovia............................................................... 29
Table 10: Compared To Rural And Other Urban Areas, Greater Monrovia’s Urban Services Are Far Better .... 38
Table 11: Service improvements in Greater Monrovia between 2008 and 2016 .............................................. 39
Table 12: Mode of transport by estimated Weekly wages (LRD) ....................................................................... 48
Table 13: Literacy levels ...................................................................................................................................... 61
Table 14: There is a marked increase in completed levels of education ............................................................ 62
Table 15: MCC Expenditures Financed by Own Source Revenue and by External Sources................................ 68
Table 16: MCC Own Source Revenue.................................................................................................................. 69
Table 17: MCC OSR Structure ............................................................................................................................. 69
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Table 18: Former and current tax rates for Land and Buildings in Liberia ......................................................... 75
Table 19: A Summary of Recommendations and a Tentative Time Horizon ...................................................... 78
Table 20: Area Calculation From Drone Imagery - Central Monrovia (A and B) ................................................. 91
Table 21: Analysis From Drone Imagery - Central Monrovia (Extended Boundary, including Caldwell, Sinkor,
Larkpazee, Sinkor old road and West point) ....................................................................................................... 91
Table 22: Area Calculation From Drone Imagery - Greater Monrovia Region.................................................... 91
Table 23: Estimation of Informality for Greater Monrovia using Machine Learning ......................................... 92
Table 24: Average rental price of Office space in Central Monrovia (ext Area) ................................................. 93
Table 25: Reported land listings from Real Estate Agencies by Neighborhood.................................................. 93
Table 26: Opportunity Cost of Empty Government Buildings could be about 60 thousand USD/month .......... 94
Table 27: Two Land Taxation Models to Generate Local Revenue ..................................................................... 94
Table 29: Vacancy Tax to incentivize better Land Use (using tax on Land values) ............................................. 94
Maps
Map 1: Map of Liberia ........................................................................................................................................... 9
Map 2: Administrative Boundaries of Greater Monrovia ..................................................................................... 9
Map 3: The growing footprint of Greater Monrovia (1960-2012)...................................................................... 17
Map 4: Population grew faster on the fringes of Greater Monrovia district between 1990 and 2014 ............. 17
Map 5: Population Density In Montserrado County (2015) ............................................................................... 25
Map 6: Formal And Informal Landuse In Greater Monrovia (Informal Areas In Red) ........................................ 28
Map 7: Population density in slums is among the highest in Greater Monrovia ............................................... 29
Map 8: Most Informal Settlements Are Identified As Covid-19 Contagion Risk Hotspots ................................. 30
Map 9: Informal Settlements On Reclaimed Land Are Most Vulnerable To Flooding And Land Subsidence .... 31
Map 10: Pluvial, Fluvial And Coastal Flooding Risk, Will Primarily Harm Informal Settlements ........................ 31
Map 11: Coastal Erosion And Sea Level Rise By 2030 Is Projected To Disproportionately Impact Slums .......... 32
Map 12: Substantial amount of building and land owned by public sector in central Monrovia ...................... 50
map 13: More than two-third of land in central part of monrovia is underutilized or poorly used .................. 51
Map 14: THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL INDICATING HIGHER BUILT-DENSITY IN CENTRAL ............................... 52
Map 15: Duala Market Including Expanded Areas And Saturday, Kuwait And Kangar Submarkets .................. 56
Boxes
Box 1: DEFINING 'URBAN' AND GREATER MONROVIA ....................................................................................... 16
Box 2: Estimating Implicit Subsidies For Water .................................................................................................. 41
Box 3: Electricity Theft ........................................................................................................................................ 42
Box 4: Estimated Food Waste At Duala Market.................................................................................................. 59
Box 5: Example Of An MoU Between The Township Of West Point With MCC ................................................. 65
Box 6: Expenditure Functions in Good International Practices .......................................................................... 67
Box 7: Main Features of a Good Local Tax .......................................................................................................... 68
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Images
Image 1: Ortho Image Of West Point Slum ......................................................................................................... 29
Image 2: Drone Aerial Image And Photograph Of Doe Community (Slum) During Floods................................. 30
Image 3: Ortho Image Of CBD Showing Congested Streets And Sidewalks........................................................ 55
Image 4: Flooding Reaching Waist Level Across Un Drive During Peak Rainy Season........................................ 58
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Abbreviations
AfT Agenda of Transformation
DHS Demographic Health Survey
GCI Global Competitive Index
HIES Household Income and Expenditure Survey
IDP Internally displaced person
ITU International Telecommunication Union
LISGIS Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services
LWSC Liberia Water and Sewage Corporation
MCC Monrovia City Corporation
PAPD Pro Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development
PCC Paynesville City Corporation
OSR Own Source Revenue
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
UN DESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
WDI World Development Indicators
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Introduction
1. In 2012 and after decades of conflict, the Government of Liberia launched a visioning exercise –
Liberia Rising 2030 – that aimed at reaching middle income status by 2030. The first 5 year plan – the Agenda
of Transformation (AfT) was oriented towards building infrastructure, increasing youth employment
opportunities, strengthening human development and sustaining peace and stability. In continuation of this
first phase, another 5 year plan was conceived in 2018 laying out a Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and
Development (PAPD). The agenda – like the previous one – emphasized the need of improving all four pillars
identified above, but it went one step further. It recognized that, despite Liberia’s enormous resource wealth,
it was poor of human and financial capital, and to unlock economic growth it needs to leverage its resource
wealth through value additions to agriculture, fisheries and mining produce.
2. Greater Monrovia could play an important role in supporting the economic transformation necessary
for the country to generate shared prosperity and reduce poverty. When cities function well, they create a
livable and productive environment that connects workers to jobs and consumers to markets, thereby
increasing opportunities and fueling productivity. Proximity and density also bring people physically closer,
facilitating exchange of ideas and generating economies of scale that enable more cost-effective service
provision. This typically means better access to schooling, health facilities, water and sanitation, electricity,
markets and jobs.
3. It is the proximity and density associated with urbanization that – if well managed and able to
overcome the negative impact from congestion – drives economic growth and prosperity. Well managed
cities require planning for future development and subsequent finance for infrastructure, and functioning land
markets to cater to a growing population and to thwart off future development threats. Greater Monrovia
lacks some of these fundamental foundations, resulting in sprawling, crowded and disconnected settlements
that are costly for businesses and residents and disappoint in their ability to generate jobs and thus prosperity.
4. Greater Monrovia is the largest agglomeration in Liberia by far, but decades of conflict has stalled
investments and development, impacting the economy. Greater Monrovia is home to about 1.3 million
people1, a fourth of the country’s total population. The next largest city, Buchanan, is less than a tenth of its
size. Greater Monrovia dominates in terms of number of firms and jobs. Its residents are, on average, both
wealthier and better served compared to their rural counterparts; however, the city is estimated to contribute
less than 20 percent towards national GDP2. The number of urban poor is growing, finance for infrastructure
and services is not available, and the cost of congestion threaten to exceed the gains from proximity and
density.
5. To manage the population growth that comes with agglomeration, policies and investments for the
efficient use of land and responsive service delivery are needed. Between the last census in 2008 and 2016,
the population of Greater Monrovia grew at an estimated 2 to 4 percent annually3 -- depending on approach
and source of data. Of the roughly 180 square kilometers of land, ten percent is occupied by buildings, twelve
percent by roads, including sidewalks, and the remaining 78 percent is vacant land. About ninety percent of
1
The population estimates vary between 1.1 to 1.4 million, as will be outlined in detail in the report.
2
Based on both an analysis using nightlight (19%) and other subnational data from Oxford Economics (13%).
3
Again depending on approach to defining its boundaries and source.
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that vacant land is estimated to be privately owned, and its efficient use needs to be incentivized through
regulation.
6. Sea level rise and flood risk from torrential rains will make some areas, currently home to numerous
people, in Greater Monrovia uninhabitable. The majority of the population in Clara Town are already living on
reclaimed land that is under water throughout most of the year. The informal settlement of West Point – home
to an estimated 75 thousand people on 0.4 square kilometer of land – is the densest area in Greater Monrovia
and at risk if sea levels rise by 1 meter. In order to adapt to future sea level and climate change scenarios,
existing land use needs to be revisited and planning instruments be designed to guide infrastructure and
housing development in safe areas.
7. Unfinished decentralization, unclear and overlapping mandates and lack of finance significantly
hinder Greater Monrovia’s potential to further contribute to Liberia’s economic transformation. 4 Most
service delivery functions are carried out by under-resourced and weak state-owned utilities. Other urban
functions, like urban planning, stormwater drainage and roads, are provided in conjunction with central
government agencies – with concomitant fractious overlapping mandates. The remit of local service provision
by the Monrovia City Council (MCC) is limited, mostly pertaining to waste collection and management. MCCs
Own Source Revenues (OSRs) barely cover its operations and all capital investments are either financed
externally or through the national government. Moreover, Greater Monrovia includes Paynesville managed by
the Paynesville City Corporation (PCC), 9 other township and one additional borough, making joint planning
difficult due to fragmentation.
8. Greater Monrovia can do more to capitalize from agglomerating, but it needs to leverage Liberia’s
resource wealth. In 2012 the Government of Liberia embarked on an ambitious vision, Liberia Rising 2030, that
outlines its plan to reach middle income status by 2030. The two agendas that have been put forwarded by the
two administrations are comprehensive and support a wider reform of Greater Monrovia’s territory to make it
more livable, competitive and resilient against climate shocks.
9. This study seeks to identify the factors that hinder Greater Monrovia to achieve higher productivity
of its workers and welfare for its citizens. It will do so by combining specifically gathered spatial data through
drones with statistics derived from household, labor and enterprise surveys. It offers pragmatic
recommendations on policy, regulation and investments to the country’s local and national stakeholders, with
an understanding of the serious limitations the country faces with regard to finance and capacity.
10. The first chapter examines the evidence between urbanization and the economy and provides details
on demographic trends and the state of economic transformation. The second chapter outlines the constraints
pertaining to growth, including discussions on risk and informality, urban services, land use and urban form,
connectivity to jobs, congestion and markets, and education and skills. Chapter three highlights the
institutional fragmentation and lack of resources hindering the transformation of Greater Monrovia, and
chapter four offers recommendations to address identified bottlenecks. The last chapter concludes.
4The devolution of certain administrative, fiscal and political powers and institutions from the national government to local
governments is still underway (Local Government Act 2015). Monrovia City Council, as municipal authority, is only responsible for
solid waste management and is allocated funds in the national budget for that service alone along with salaries subsidy. MCC has
municipal revenue sharing arrangements with some adjoining Local Government Areas (LGAs).
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MAP 1: MAP OF LIBERIA
MAP 2: ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES OF GREATER MONROVIA
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Executive Summary
11. In 2012 and after decades of conflict, the Government of Liberia embarked on an ambitious program
and launched a 5 year national plan on transformation to generate economic growth and prosperity. The
Agenda of Transformation (AfT) under the umbrella of Liberia Rising 2030 aimed at reaching middle income
status by the year 2030, by building infrastructure, increasing youth employment opportunities, strengthening
human development and sustaining peace and stability. Historically, no country has attained middle income
status without reaching at least 50 percent urbanization. This is because urbanization is in theory associated
with the structural transformation of the economy from agricultural to urban jobs in manufacturing and
services, and an increased production of goods and services at scale that enhance labor productivity, spur
higher wages, increase local demand for food and thereby generate a win-win for both urban and rural workers.
12. In continuation of the vision laid out in Liberia Rising 2030, another 5-year plan was conceived in
2018, laying out a Pro Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD). The new agenda emphasizes the
need to invest in human capital, so that Liberia can better leverage its massive resource wealth through value
additions to agriculture, fisheries and mining produce. It understands the role urban areas and especially
Greater Monrovia need to play in supporting the economic transformation necessary for the country to
generate shared prosperity, and is fully cognizant of the extent of informality and lack of service access that
has paralyzed the economy of Greater Monrovia.
13. Liberia’s structural transformation is still incomplete. Agriculture, mostly subsistence farming, still
employs the largest share of workers (46 percent) in Liberia, even though its contribution to GDP is declining
and is with 37 percent lower than services. Yet, much of the transition to urban jobs in Greater Monrovia went
to employment within non-tradeable sectors (85 percent), which growth is by definition conditioned by local
demand. Other urban areas – though growing in population at similar or higher rates as Greater Monrovia –
have changed little, partly because they lack critical infrastructure and scale. The next largest town in Liberia
(Gbarnga in Bong) is not even 7 percent the size of Greater Monrovia.
14. For Liberia to reap the benefits from urbanization, Greater Monrovia needs fixing. The district of
Greater Monrovia is home to about a quarter of Liberians; counting the agglomeration of Greater Monrovia
this figure could be as high as 29 percent; and the number is growing. However, both nightlight data and other
estimates of local GDP show the contribution of Greater Monrovia towards national GDP at only 19 and 13
percent, respectively, thus lower on a per capita basis than the rest of the country. One of the reasons is that
Liberia’s economy still heavily relies on exports of primary commodities, rather than generating value additions
to these primary goods within the country. This has made the economy vulnerable to external shocks, as during
the sharp decline of commodity prices in 2015/2016, and is limiting its growth potential. Due to scale and
proximity to the port, Greater Monrovia could become a major hub for local agro-processing industries and
light manufacturing, but it needs to address constraints to its economy stemming from decades of neglected
investments.
There are multiple constraints impacting the functioning of Greater Monrovia
15. Land use in Central and Greater Monrovia is highly inefficient and unequal. Only an estimated 37
percent of land in Central Monrovia is built upon, either by roads and sidewalks (13 percent) or buildings (24
percent). What should be prime real estate in Central Monrovia is a majority (77 percent) of one story houses
that are not built of materials that could support another one. An estimated 63 percent of the land, net of
roads and sidewalks, is privately owned. Many government owned buildings are empty and in need of repair.
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Informality is ripe, with half of the available land mass in Greater Monrovia covered by slums and not counting
the increasing encroachment of informal settlements into wetlands and reclaimed land. These settlements
have become hotspots of possible COVID 19 transmissions; similar to 2014, when they were the most affected
areas during the Ebola crisis.
16. Inefficient land use adds to the cost imposed by the fragmentation of the city due to its geography.
The Mesurado river divides Greater Monrovia and generates large distances that need to be overcome, when
workers commute to their jobs, sellers and buyers travel to the markets and children to school. About a third
of employed individuals reach their work on foot, making the location of their home an important function of
which jobs they can access. In addition to natural barriers, the low utilization of land and prevalence of low rise
housing add to the cost – not only because of longer distances of daily commutes, but also because network
infrastructure costs are so much higher as they do not benefit from economies of scale.
17. Climate change will reduce some of the land mass – permanently or temporarily – creating an even
stronger urgency of making land use more efficient. Threats from climate change hit Greater Monrovia both
from the Mesurado river delta and from the long coastal line that exposes the city to sea level rises. They over-
proportionally affect the poor that reside in these informal settlements bordering the shores of the river or
sea. These risks generate an even greater urgency for improving current land use, beyond the economic
argument of the cost of fragmentation. They also call for urgent planning tools to avoid investments being sunk
in areas that are under water in the future and a rethinking about how to provide affordable housing for the
thousands of slum dwellers near their jobs when they are displaced from their current location.
18. Infrastructure service provision is largely conditioned by land use. Population density makes a key
difference to the cost of network infrastructure, being the primary reason why grid electricity, sewage systems
and piped water from the utility are not financially or economically viable investments in rural and low densely
populated urban areas. Greater Monrovia’s piped water and sewage system predates the civil wars of the
country and was once built to cater to a much lower population. It is thus hardly surprising that, following
decades of conflict and underinvestment in the systems, piped household connections of water were estimated
to be as low as 3 percent in 2016. Future network extensions for both water and sewage could be a fraction of
the cost, if land use and population densities were better managed through formal housing of more than one
floor that would be commensurate to expected urban densities.
19. Economic infrastructure – transport and electricity – though so much better than in other urban
areas are still constraining the traffic flow within Greater Monrovia and the growth prospects of the private
sector. Lack of access to electricity has been identified as one of two top constraints to Liberian firms. Only 27
percent of households report access to electricity, including those connecting illegally, with the downside of
the state owned electricity company LEC incurring financial losses in the millions that are recovered through
higher tariffs and government subsidies. Two important markets – the Duala market and the Redlight market
– are located on the few paved corridors and are so congested that at certain hours they virtually halt all traffic
into and out of Central Monrovia. Both markets are critical in connecting urban shoppers to rural farmers in
Montserrado and neighboring counties, but without alternative corridors, this will continue to impose major
constraints both to the delivery to the markets as well as those commuting from Greater Monrovia’s periphery
to work.
20. Skills, literacy and education are critical components for Greater Monrovia ’s ‘knowledge’ based
economy and as input to firms. Even though both literacy level and education attainments are improving in
Greater Monrovia – and elsewhere – one in four adults still reports having not completed primary schooling.
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While the proportion of Monrovians with completed higher education is small (about 5 percent), almost 20
percent of the adults report attending polytechnic, vocational or adult education classes as a means to make
progress in their careers. There are high returns to better education, as evidenced through wages, signaling
scarcity of skilled labor and pointing to the need to make more progress on achieving education for all.
21. Lack of remit and clearly delineated responsibilities hinder Greater Monrovia’s local and central
government institutions to guide the city’s investment needs. Most service delivery functions are carried out
by under-resourced and weak state-owned utilities. Other urban functions, like urban planning, stormwater
drainage and roads, are provided in conjunction with central government agencies – with concomitant
fractious overlapping mandates. The remit of local service provision by the Monrovia City Council (MCC) is
limited, mostly pertaining to waste collection and management. MCCs Own Source Revenues (OSRs) barely
cover its operations and all capital investments are either financed externally or through the national
government.
22. Greater Monrovia – the MCC, PCC and other entities – needs a model of inter-jurisdictional
governance to improve service delivery. The MCC and PCC, as the institutional leaders of Greater Monrovia,
should consider advocating for a broader assignment of local expenditure functions, supported by new tax
revenue sources, to operate under a model of metropolitan governance characterized by clear transparency
and strong accountability. To enhance this transparency, MCC should consider reporting both planned and
executed expenditures (de-jure and de-facto) in each jurisdiction covered by an MoU in order to enhance
accountability, as part of good governance.
For Greater Monrovia to unlock its important role in support of economic growth and shared
prosperity, it needs to prioritize its land issues
23. Reliable and digitalized land ownership and transaction records are the most important instruments
for local revenue generation, land use regulation and urban planning. Without a reliable cadaster, land
owners cannot be taxed, vacancy of land cannot be penalized thus better land use cannot be incentivized, and
urban plans – including those for infrastructure development and housing – cannot be formulated unless there
is a clear understanding on what land belongs to the government and what is private. Due to its revenue
generation potential, land could also unlock much of the severe fiscal constraints currently limiting local
infrastructure and economic development.
24. Without reliable land records, the risks from climate change that are and will continue to impact
Greater Monrovia cannot be effectively mitigated. The location of climate resilient settlements and business
districts needs to be planned today on land that is not affected in the future by sea level rise and flood risk.
Choices need to be made between (i) deflecting future population growth into the periphery of Greater
Monrovia, while planning appropriate transport corridors and modes to connect to the future location of jobs;
(ii) intensifying land use in the safe areas of central areas of Greater Monrovia by building higher and reducing
the vacancy of land. A combination of both is needed to match incomes with affordable housing options.
25. Until longer term choices for network infrastructure, housing, and business districts are planned and
designed, temporary relief needs to be granted to the 70 percent of slum residents that cannot wait until
viable alternatives are in place. The 2014 Ebola crises and today’s COVID 19 pandemic over proportionally
affect the poor households residing in informal settlements of Greater Monrovia. They lack access to potable
water, sanitation and many of these settlements are already year-round in knee deep waters. Eventually, these
residents will need to be evacuated, but until then non-network service solutions need to be explored, using
creative private provision models adopted by social entrepreneurs in other parts of Africa.
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1. Liberia’s Linkages between Urbanization and Economic Growth
26. Countries cannot reach middle income status without going through structural transformation that
is enabled by the urbanization process. Urbanization has typically been associated with a structural
transformation of the economy from agriculture to manufacturing and services, leading to an increased
productivity both among urban as well as rural workers. The theory goes like this: structural transformation
begins with the release of agricultural labor to higher productivity jobs in urban centers, where firms absorb
released labor to produce at scale, thus reducing the cost of production and increasing urban labor
productivity. The release of labor in rural farms would also increase agricultural productivity, which would get
another boost, when urban demands for agricultural produce are increasing with rising urban wages. Structural
transformation has been historically a major driver for economic growth and no country has reached middle
income status without becoming at least 50 percent urbanized (Spence et al, 2009).
27. However, Liberia together with the Central African Republic are the only two countries among a
select group5 that have experienced urbanization without economic growth. Both Liberia and the Central
African Republic have a shared history of conflict and instability. Even though Liberia’s economy was able to
sustain an average annual GDP growth of 6.2 percent in the decade following the end of conflict in 2003,
economic recovery was disrupted in 2014 by the Ebola crisis and a sharp drop of global commodities prices
(Liberia SCD, 2018). Moreover, Liberia’s modest increases in GDP over the past two decades were – due to its
fast growing population – insufficient to maintain or grow its average GDP per capita, explaining the decline in
the figure below. It is likely that the ongoing COVID19 pandemic will send another shock to Liberia’s slowly
recovering economy, though the extend of the damage is not yet know.
FIGURE 1: URBANIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH (2000-2018)
Source: Staff calculations using WDI (2019)
28. Constraints to reaping benefits from urbanization are not unique to Liberia, but other countries
managed better to reap the expected returns from agglomerating. One factor common to most countries in
SSA is that they have been urbanizing while poor. When SSA reached about 40 percent urbanization level, its
5
This group of African countries was constructed using regression analysis to generate a comparable peer group of
countries. The methodology is outlined in Annex 1, including some comparison graphs. Added to the group were
neighboring countries to capture shared location characteristics.
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GDP per capita was about one thousand US dollars. Latin America and Middle East/North African countries had
almost double that GDP per capita, and East Asia was more than triple as wealthy, when reaching an
urbanization level of 40 percent. Being poor while urbanizing means fewer financial resources available for
critical infrastructure and human capital. Without such investments, the benefits from urbanization are much
harder to reap: the workforce does not receive needed education to match the skill requirements of firms and,
without capital investments, expansive informal housing occupies urban centers, thus increasing the cost of
the commute, lowering the economies of scale of service provision, and raising the cost of doing business.
FIGURE 2: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA IS URBANIZING AT A LOWER GDP PER CAPITA THAN OTHER REGIONS
$3,617
Urbanization at about 40 percent
GDP per capita
2005 US$
$1,860 $1,806
$1,018
LAC MENA EAP SSA
(1950) (1968) (1994) (2013)
Source: Lall, Henderson, and Venables (2017)
29. Greater Monrovia dominates both in terms of concentration of population and economic activity,
but it needs to leverage its opportunities for economic growth better and at par with other cities in SSA.
Apart from city level performance, the extent to which capital cities contribute to country GDP also depends
on their primacy status within the country, i.e. are there other larger cities that are also significantly
contributing to national GDP (like for example Kumasi in Ghana that is almost the same size as Accra). The
population of Greater Monrovia was in 2008, the year of the last census, about 16 times the size of the next
largest town Gbarnga in county Bong. Therefore, if Greater Monrovia does not reap the full benefits from
urbanization then, by extension, neither will Liberia.
FIGURE 3: LOSS OF GDP (IN PERCENT) IF CAPITAL CITY WERE REMOVED (YEAR 2015)
Source: Oxford Economics (2015)
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1.1. Urbanization and Demographic Trends
30. Liberia’s pattern of urbanization needs to be viewed as a product of its history of instability and
conflict. Two civil wars between 1989 and 2003 killed several hundred thousand people and displaced more
than a million, half of Liberia’s population at that time. The share of the urban population peaked during the
initial years of conflict (58 percent in 1991) as people sought safety in urban areas and Greater Monrovia
became host to numerous IDPs. In subsequent years as the conflict intensified and reached the capital, a third
of the population was displaced further, either fleeing to neighboring countries or taking refuge in the interior
of Liberia. By 1996, the urban share of the population had plummeted to 42 percent6. Today half of the 4.6
million Liberians live in an urban settlement7 and about a quarter (or 1.3 million) reside in Greater Monrovia.
FIGURE 4: LIBERIA'S URBANIZATION LEVEL IN 2018 IS THE SAME AS 30 YEARS AGO
Source: UN DESA (2018)
31. Over the next thirty years, Liberia’s urban population is expected to triple, reaching almost 6.7
million by 2050. According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA),
Liberia’s urban population is projected to grow at about 3 percent annually between 2020 and 2050. This urban
population growth rate is slightly below the one witnessed during the past decade or, more specifically,
between 2008 – the year of the last census – and 2016 – a year for which comparable statistics can be derived
using the last household income and expenditure survey (HIES). In fact, there is a slight variation between
official population statistics provided by the Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services (LISGIS)
and other sources, as outlined in the table below.
6
Nmoma, V. (1997), The Civil War and the Refugee Crisis in Liberia, in: Journal of Conflict Studies, Vol. XVII No. 1, Spring
1997. https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/JCS/article/view/11734/12489
7
Liberia current classifies settlements with more than 2000 people as urban. Under the proposed Local Government
Act, settlements of 25,000 are expected to be classified as cities, and settlements of 10,000 people as townships.
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TABLE 1: POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR GREATER MONROVIA VARY BY STATISTICAL APPROACH AND BY SOURCE
LISGIS 20161 HIES 20162 WDI 2016 UN DESA 20163 EU GHSL 20154 Africapolis 20155
Greater Monrovia n/a 1,134,545 1,317,509 1,321,090 1,420,945 1,190,635
Urban 2,287,037 2,197,584 2,305,044 2,318,610 2,459,358 1,715,625
Rural 1,956,438 2,045,736 2,281,744 2,295,213 2,048,948 2,369,196
Liberia 4,243,475 4,243,320 4,586,788 4,613,823 4,508,306 4,084,821
Sources: 1/ LISGIS (2016); 2/ staff calculations using HIES (2016); 3/by averaging reported statistics using UN DESA (2018)
for the years 2018 and 2014; 4/ EU Commission (2015) GHSL (https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/CFS.php); 5/ OECD (2015)
Africapolis (https://www.africapolis.org/data)
32. Depending on the statistical source, Greater Monrovia is growing at approximately the same pace as
Liberia’s urban population – or significantly less. As outlined in the box on the left, different approaches to
measuring urban areas lead to
BOX 1: DEFINING 'URBAN' AND GREATER MONROVIA different population estimates, thus
Official statistics from LISGIS classify a settlement as ‘urban’ if it has at least different population growth rates and
two thousand inhabitants, and this definition is followed in the data by urbanization levels. Most of the
LISGIS for both census and HIES, and adopted by WDI and UN DESA for all approaches are united on the growth
urban areas. In contrast, the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) of Liberia’s urban population, with
advocated by the European Union and Africapolis applied by OECD, use a estimates ranging from 3.4 to 3.9
population density approach to define areas as ‘urban’, irrespective of
percent. Higher variation can be
administrative definitions.
observed when attempting to
In measuring the size of the agglomeration of Greater Monrovia, official approximate population growth of
statistics from LISGIS capture Greater Monrovia through the official Greater Monrovia. If all methods were
boundaries demarcating the district of Greater Monrovia. In contrast, the
to deliver accurate results, then
EU (using the GHSL), OECD (using Africapolis), UN DESA and WDI define
significant population growth should
the agglomeration of Greater Monrovia through the lens of urban
be expected outside of the official
densities. This means that areas adjacent to the district of Greater
Monrovia with ‘urban’ characteristics are included in defining the size of boundaries of Greater Monrovia
the agglomeration. district, i.e. in areas that are captured
by all other data sources other than
Sources: LISGIS (2008), UN DESA (2018), EU Commission (2015), OECD (2015), WDI
(2019) LISGIS, as these include areas beyond
the official district boundaries.
TABLE 2: POPULATION GROWTH RATES BY AREA AND SOURCE (IN PERCENT)
LISGIS (Census WDI UN DESA EU-GHSL Africapolis
2008-HIES 2016) (2008-2016) (2008-2016) (2000-2015) (2000-2015)
Greater
2.01 3.8 4.02 4.2 3.0
Monrovia
Urban
3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.4
population
Rural population 1.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 n/a
Liberia 2.5 3.0 2.9 3.0 n/a
Sources: as above. 1/computed using census 2008 and survey estimates using HIES (2016); 2/computed as average of 2007
and 2009 to get 2008 and average of 2014 and 2018 to get 2016 using UN DESA (2018)
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33. Considering spatial data for Greater Monrovia strongly suggests that the agglomeration is growing
beyond its official borders. As noticeable in the maps below, areas classified as ‘urban’ under the definition of
the GHSL are identified adjacent to the district of Greater Monrovia, suggesting expansion of the agglomeration
of Greater Monrovia beyond official boundaries. Likewise, population growth rates outside the district’s
boundaries were far higher than within the district, giving credence to higher population growth rates for data
sources that focus on the agglomeration. The analysis and data in this report will rely foremost on the census,
household survey, labor force survey and other data from LISGIS, but it is important to note the legitimacy of
varying population estimates for Greater Monrovia and the fact that they point to an increase in the urban
footprint of the capital area.
MAP 3: THE GROWING FOOTPRINT OF GREATER MAP 4: POPULATION GREW FASTER ON THE FRINGES OF
MONROVIA (1960-2012) GREATER MONROVIA DISTRICT BETWEEN 1990 AND 2014
Source: Landscan (1960, 2000, 2012) Source: EU Commission (1990-2015), GHSL
34. Urban population growth exceeds rural population growth by far, suggesting migration from rural to
urban areas as a contributing factor. As outlined above urban population growth is almost double the annual
rural rate, despite a much higher fertility rate in rural (5.4) versus urban areas (3.6). The fertility rate for Greater
Monrovia is with 3.3 births per woman8 even lower than the urban average, while population growth is about
the same, except for the estimate of growth in the district produced by LISGIS. This would point to migration
being potentially a significant factor in explaining urban population growth in general, and population growth
in the agglomeration of Greater Monrovia in particular.
8
SCD 2018
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TABLE 3: FERTILITY AND MORTALITY RATES FOR URBAN AND RURAL LIBERIA (2008-2016)
2008 2013 2016
Fertility (births per woman) 4.9 3.8 3.6
Urban Crude death rate (deaths per 1000 inhabitants) 17.9
Life expectancy 54.4
Fertility (births per woman) 6.5 6.1 5.4
Rural Crude death rate (deaths per 1000 inhabitants) 23.7
Life expectancy 51
Source: Census (2008); DHS (2013); DHS MIS (2016)
35. Despite much of the population growth in Montserrado being likely driven by migration, there is also
a sizeable movement of people out of Montserrado – though inflow has always exceeded outflow9. Liberia’s
history of conflict and the Ebola epidemy have clearly been contributing factors of migration in and out of
Montserrado. Throughout the past six decades however, estimated inflow using responses from the HIES
(2016) 10 always exceeded the outflow of migrants to Montserrado. Between 2011 and 2016 and using the
weighted survey data, an estimated 135 thousand people arrived in Montserrado and almost one hundred
thousand left for other counties in Liberia, not counting those that left the country permanently and are
therefore not captured.
FIGURE 5: PATTERN OF MIGRATION FROM AND TO MONTSERRADO (1980 TO 2016)
Source: Staff calculation from HIES (2016)
9
The HIES only asks for the county as a place of birth, which is why the migration analysis cannot be conducted at a
lower administrative level, i.e. one cannot distinguish between somebody born in Montserrado versus Greater
Monrovia.
10
The number of net-migrants to the city is estimated using the HIES 2016, which includes two questions on (i) a
respondent’s previous County of residence and (ii) the number of years spent in their current location.
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36. Both permanent and temporary movements of Liberians between Montserrado and nearby counties
suggest deep connections between the capital region and rural areas . As one can see from the tables and
corresponding maps below, the majority of recent immigrants came from nearby counties; almost a quarter
originated from the county Margibi towards the East of Montserrado. Similarly the largest emigration flow out
of Montserrado was to Margibi (13 percent), but also to Grandbassa along the coast and the much more inland
county of Nimba. These linkages to nearby counties is also confirmed by data from the International
Telecommunication Union (ITU) that analyzed the destination of visitors originating from Montserrado through
cell phone data and concluded – similar to the HIES estimates – that Margibi, Bomi and Bong are the most
visited counties.
TABLE 4: THE COUNTY OF ORIGIN AND DESTINATION OF RECENT MIGRANTS (2011-2016) TO AND FROM MONTSERRADO
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016)
37. In terms of population stock in 2016, Montserrado was the county with the largest share of
population with migratory background. About 60 percent of the population of Montserrado reported having
been born in the county in 2016, whilst the remaining 40 percent (about 550 thousand people) moved into the
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county at various times. On the other hand, about 125 thousand people (that have participated in the
household survey of 2016) report having been born in Montserrado but were now living in another county for
various number of years and reasons unknown. As mentioned earlier exits from Montserrado to other
countries cannot be captured by the data, but the size of the Liberian diaspora is large and is playing an
important role for Liberia’s receipt of remittances that contribute 10 to 20 percent of Liberia’s GDP (WDI, 2019).
FIGURE 6: POPULATION WITH MIGRATION AND NO MIGRATION BACKGROUND IN 2016 (IN PERCENT AND BY COUNTY)
Nimba
Lofa
Bong
Sinoe
Grand Kru
Maryland
River Cess
River Gee
Grand Bassa
Grand Cape Mount
Gbarpolu
Bomi
Grand Gedeh
Margibi
Montserrado
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
stationary population
in-migrating population from within Liberia
in-migrating population from abroad
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016)
38. One of the supporting hypothesis of the beneficial aspects of urbanization is that ‘pull’ factors would
encourage the highest skilled or most educated rural workers to move to urban areas to seek better
remuneration. In reality a combination of ‘pull’ and ‘push’ factors are driving migration decisions and it is often
difficult to distinguish one from the other, as they are clearly intertwined: for example, low job opportunities
at origin may be a ‘push’ factor, while better job opportunity at destination a ‘pull’ factor. However, it is
possible to compare educational achievements of population above 15 years of age across different groups:
more recent migrants, migrants that have been residing in Montserrado for a longer period, and their
stationary peers. Montserrado natives are less likely to have no education and more likely to achieve secondary
and tertiary schooling compared to migrants that moved to Montserrado less than 5 or less than 15 years ago.
There is no significant difference between the more recent and the less recent migrants to Montserrado, with
the exception that the latter are more likely to have no education compared to less recent migrants. Moreover
and as one would expect, urban residents – whether in other urban areas or in very urbanized Montserrado –
have higher educational achievements, especially at secondary and tertiary level compared to their rural peers,
and are less likely to have only primary schooling or no education.
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39.
TABLE 5: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF STATIONARY POPULATION AND MIGRANTS (POPULATION >=15 YEARS OF AGE)
Montserrado <=15 years ago <=5 years ago Rural non- Other Urban
Natives n=462 n=231 migrants non-migrants
n=1898 n=9408 n=2802
No 15.8% 31% 35.6% 53.9% 28.8%
Education
Primary 11.4% 21% 21.4% 24.0% 20.0%
Secondary 57.7% 42% 37.0% 21.4% 47.5%
Tertiary 15.2% 5.8% 6.0% 0.6% 3.7%
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016)
40. Family reasons dominate the motivation of migrants to move to Montserrado, for recent migrants
more than for those that have arrived longer time ago. 28 percent of earlier migrants and 47 percent of recent
migrants report having moved to Montserrado because of family reasons. Likewise, a smaller percentage of
earlier migrants were motivated by business and employment opportunities (13 percent) or improved services
and housing (17 percent) compared to more recent migrants (18 and 25 percent respectively). Access to better
education (both secondary schooling and universities) was more important to earlier cohorts (23 percent) than
more recent ones (9 percent).
TABLE 6: WHY DID PEOPLE MOVE? SELF-REPORTED REASONS FOR MIGRATION (HOUSEHOLD HEADS)
Long-term domestic migrants Recent domestic Recent domestic
(15-40 years ago) migrants (5-15 year) migrants (<=5 years)
n=91 n=92 n=62
Business/ employment/ work 13.1% 14.6% 17.7%
School/ studies 23.2% 12.8% 9.4%
Marriage 4.5% 6%
Other family reasons 28.1% 36.8% 47.0%
Better services/ housing 17.1% 18.3% 25.2%
Land/ plot 6.4% 0.4%
Security 6% 5.9%
Medical reasons 0.4% 2.2%
Other specify 1.5% 4.8%
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016)
FIGURE 7: POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN LIBERIA 41. Greater Monrovia’s population is young and needs
AND GREATER MONROVIA employment. 45 percent of Greater Monrovia’s population is at
its prime age between 15 and 40, and 40 percent are below 15
years of age constituting the next cohort of youth seeking
employment and opportunities. If the rising youth cohort could
be engaged in urban jobs, a sizeable demographic dividend
could be on offer for Liberia; however failure to do so risks
alienation and hopelessness in a country that needs every
support to sustain peace and security.
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Source: Staff calculation using HIES (2016)
1.2. Economy of and Employment in Greater Monrovia
42. Liberia’s economy is experiencing a structural change in the composition of its GDP towards services
and away from agriculture. Over the last two decades, the contribution of agriculture to GDP has fallen from
76 to 37 percent, whereas services have grown from 20 to 50 percent over the same period. Value added of
mining, manufacturing and construction as percent of GDP – though tripling since 2000 – remains limited,
despite Liberia’s large exports in mining products, especially iron ore. In fact, many of the natural resources
Liberia has a potential comparative advantage in – rubber, cocoa, palm oil, iron ore – are under concession
agreements that provide revenue to government (about 30 percent in 2014 according to the SCD 2018), but
are exported as raw materials and therefore add less value to GDP or job creation than if they were processed
within Liberia.
43. Though agriculture represents a declining share of Liberia’s GDP, it remains the largest share of
employment and is important to leverage Liberia’s advantage. The majority of agricultural workers is
dependent on subsistence farming, which modernization is constrained by the lack of physical, financial and
human capital (SCD, 2018). Despite earlier efforts to ensure concession agreements generate more local
benefits in terms of employment and investments in infrastructure, progress has been limited by the rent-
seeking culture surrounding concessions (ibid). For agriculture to play a more dominant role in terms of its
contribution to poverty reduction, GDP, and sustainable employment, support to agro-processing industries
needs to be extended with a win-win approach for the urban economy, on which increases in agricultural
productivity will depend.
FIGURE 8: CHANGE IN THE COMPOSITION OF GDP IS FIGURE 9: EMPLOYMENT SHARES HAVE BARELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN GDP CHANGED OVER THE PAST TWO DECADES
100% 3,000 100%
Millions USD (constant 2010)
20
80% 2,500
4 50 80% 45 43
2,000
60% 60%
1,500 10 11
40% 76 13
1,000 40%
20% 37 500 20% 45 46
0% 0 0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Services, value added (% of GDP)
Industry*, value added (% of GDP) Employment in services (% of total employment)
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP) Employment in industry* (% of total employment)
GDP (constant 2010 US$) Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)
Source: Staff calculations using WDI 2019; * including mining, manufacturing and construction
44. Among Liberia’s urban areas, only the economy of Greater Monrovia has transitioned from
agriculture to services. About five percent of Greater Monrovia’s workforce is still engaged in agriculture, while
more than 65 percent have shifted to service sector jobs. Even though the share of agricultural employment in
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Greater Monrovia is negligible, the markets in and around Greater Monrovia are a critical lifeline for farmers
to sell their produce and residents to meet their food demands. Likewise, there are opportunities for agro-
processing industries that could add value to agricultural produce for exports and that benefit from improved
infrastructure and connectivity offered by urban densities. Other urban areas have seen little change to their
local economy11, despite the rapid urban population growth outside the capital area, which suggests that
Greater Monrovia could play an important role in engaging local supply chains and incentivizing local value-
additions within the capital area to Liberia’s abundant raw materials.
TABLE 7: PRIMARY SECTOR OF EMPLOYMENT OF WORKERS IN URBAN MONTSERRADO/GREATER MONROVIA
2008^^ 2016^^
Agriculture 5.1 5.4
Mining and quarrying 1.1 1.6
Manufacturing 2.1 3.8
Utilities 3.7 1.6
Construction 3.8 6.1
Commerce 48.5 48.0
Transportation, storage, communication* 5.5 4.5
Financial and Business Services 1.7 1.5
Public administration and defense 14.1 15.8
Other Services 14.5 11.7
Source: Census (2008), HIES (2016), LISGIS (2011)
Notes: non-tradable sectors in bold; * could be partly tradeable
45. The majority of Greater Monrovia’s service sector employment is within the informal, low-
productive and non-tradeable segments. About 90 percent of all jobs tabulated above produce non-tradable
goods or services. By definition, the growth of the non-tradeable sector is dependent on domestic demand,
thus limiting economies of scale in the production and therefore efficiency improvements that could lift
productivity. Variations between 2008 and 2016 are a likely manifestation of domestic demand fluctuations,
driven by the presence of United Nations and other agencies in the aftermath of the conflict and during the
Ebola crises.
46. Informality and low productivity correlate with firm size: 57 percent of the firms in Montserrado
employ three or fewer employers and almost two thirds had a turn-over of less than LRD 70k in 2017,
equivalent to about USD 560 at 2017 exchange rates12. Montserrado is home to nearly 70 percent of the 17,642
firms assessed in Liberia’s establishment census in 2017. The majority of these businesses are run by ‘reluctant
entrepreneurs’13 that have insufficient skills to work in formal jobs, no access to credit to expand and grow
their business, but need to produce something to make a living. Only 962 firms registered under the
Establishment Census in Liberia have more than 20 employees; nearly 80 percent of these larger firms are in
Montserrado.
11
SCD (2018), p.33
12
National Establishment Census (2017)
13
A term coined by Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo (2011)
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47. Productivity of firms and thus wages are driven by a variety of factors, some of which point to a
larger failure of local and national institutions to guide policies and investments that support the
urbanization process. The 2017 enterprise survey identified lack of access to finance and electricity as the top
two constraints for Liberian firms, followed by high taxation, access to land and customs and trade regulations.
Liberia scores equal or worse than the SSA average on 11 out of 12 indicators assessed by the 2018 Global
Competitiveness Index (CGI), with widest gaps or lowest scores with respect to institutions, infrastructure, ICT,
skills and market size. The very large distance to the SSA average on market size – an indicator drawn from
national GDP, imports and innovation ecosystem – emphasizes the importance of Liberia to leverage its raw
materials as processed exports to the world.
FIGURE 10: ACCESS TO FINANCE AND ELECTRICITY TOP FIGURE 11: GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS INDEX, 2018:
CONSTRAINTS TO LIBERIAN FIRMS, 2017 LIBERIA COMPARED TO SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Source: Enterprise Survey (2017) Source: Global Competitiveness Report (2018)
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2. Understanding Greater Monrovia’s Constraints to Growth and
Prosperity through a Spatial Lens
48. When consumers, producers and workers cluster in proximity, they spur competition and enable
scale and specialization that bring agglomeration benefits in form of higher productivity . To generate
proximity, either the physical distance needs to be reduced or overcome by investing into connective
infrastructure and transportation services. Therefore, productivity generated through scale and specialization,
can only be reaped if connectivity between workers, producers and consumers is fostered through density and
efficient transport options. Many African cities are fragmented, disconnected and costly (Lall and Venables
2017) and therefore fail to reap these agglomeration benefits.
49. Population densities bring workers closer to jobs, increasing workers’ opportunities and fueling their
productivity. However, Liberia did not reap the benefits it should from agglomerating as shown in Figure 1.
Neither did Greater Monrovia contribute proportional to GDP on a population basis: only about 13 percent as
shown in Figure 3 above and corroborated at 19 percent by using nightlight 14 to estimate Montserrado’s
subnational GDP for 2015. Urbanization without commensurate planning and regulation of investments has
resulted in almost 70 percent of Greater Monrovia’s population residing in informal settlements, the majority
of population lacking critical urban services, congestion in some parts and inefficient use of land in other parts
of the city.
2.1. Density and Fragmentation in Greater Monrovia
MAP 5: POPULATION DENSITY IN MONTSERRADO COUNTY (2015)
Source: GHSL 2015, density per 250 meter grid
14
Census (2008); Data from Kummu et al (2018) were overlaid on administrative maps of Greater Monrovia to estimate
the district’s GDP.
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FIGURE 12: AVERAGE POPULATION DENSITY PER HECTARE AND DISTANCE FROM CBD
Source: Staff calculation using GHSL (2015)
50. Greater Monrovia’s pattern of population density suggests a less monocentric shape and more
fragmentation that increase the cost of doing business. Most cities experience peak densities in the center,
with density gradually falling with distance. As shown in the figure above, population density is highest in the
center but fluctuates from then on with little peaks. Greater Monrovia’s topography generates natural barriers
where population cannot reside, explaining some of these density peaks that are also captured in the figures
below. The large basin formed by the Mesurado river is uninhabitable, even though encroachment along its
shore has become a flood hazard not only for the residents in these informal settlements but also – by
constraining the natural hydraulic capacity of the river – for other areas. The river divides the city and reduces
the agglomeration benefits. The large distances between firms and workers tend to reduce workers’ access to
jobs by raising the cost of the commute, undermine job market pooling and matching, and hinder the transfer
of innovation and ideas.
FIGURE 13: POPULATION DENSITY PER SQUARE KILOMETER (2015)
Duala Market
Central
Monrovia Redlight Market
Source: CIESIN/ Facebook High Resolution population data (2015) - https://ciesin.columbia.edu/data/hrsl/
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FIGURE 14: THE PUGA INDEX FOR GREATER MONROVIA 51. Beyond the natural barriers of Greater Monrovia’s
topography, there is fragmentation because of inefficient
land use . While Central Monrovia is one of the areas with
highest density, similar densities covering a larger area can
be seen around the Redlight market in the Eastern part of
the city (see figure above). What should be a densely
populated area between the Redlight Market and
downtown Central Monrovia, is a stretch with relatively
low density and little commerce. The cost of such
fragmentation is measured by the PUGA Index for select
cities in the figure on the left and include an estimate for
Greater Monrovia. Based on a dataset by Henderson et al
(2018), it measures current ‘connectedness’, as opposed to
fragmentation, and shows that, controlling for income
levels and city population size, a one percentage point
increase in connectedness is associated with urban costs
that are 12 percentage points lower.
Source: World Bank (2019a)
52. The cost of such an inefficient urban form is reflected in higher wages firms have to pay its workers.
Apart from transportation cost, households in African cities are estimated to pay, on average, 77 percent more
for housing and 26 percent more for food than households in other cities at comparable levels of economic
development (Nakamura et al, 2016). In turn, this may result in higher urban wages that are not driven by
productivity gains, but higher urban costs that are passed on to consumers and reduce firm level
competitiveness.
53. Greater Monrovia’s wages are higher than rural and other urban wages in both nominal and real
terms, though the premium is diminishing to only 5 percent in some regression specifications. Following
Jones et al. (2017), a regression analysis shows that nominal wages in Greater Monrovia of those formally
employed are about 13-52 percent higher than in rural areas and 7-25 percent higher than in other urban areas.
However, when considering real wages, Greater Monrovia’s advantage over other urban areas is slightly
reduced to 5-22 percent, depending on the regression specification, confirming a far higher earning potential
despite higher cost of living.
TABLE 8: WAGES IN MONROVIA ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER CONTROLLING FOR EMPLOYEE CHARACTERISTICS
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Location Variables (Rural=base) Log nominal weekly wages (LRD) Log real weekly wages (LRD)
Greater Monrovia 0.515*** 0.226*** 0.126** 0.473*** 0.188*** 0.161***
Other Urban Areas 0.272*** 0.103* 0.196*** 0.252*** 0.0866 0.111**
Source: Staff Calculations using HIES (2016) using only wage earners, full regression output is in Annex 2
Notes: statistically significant at *** one percent, ** five percent, * ten percent
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2.2. The State of Informality and Risk
54. Inefficiencies associated with fragmentation are exacerbated by a high degree of informal
settlements which are extremely vulnerable pandemics and disaster – especially to floods – and with the latter
predicted to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, questions on viability of infrastructure
investment in areas that may be soon submerged emerge. Greater Monrovia is 70% informal, with associated
poor access to services. Flooding is also a concern – expected to be exacerbated by climate change – and with
a significant amount of infrastructure located in flood zones, questions on the viability financing network
infrastructure in areas which may soon be destroyed by flooding emerge.
55. Informal areas in Greater Monrovia are estimated to cover about 70 percent of the total built-up
area, and accommodate two thirds of Greater Monrovia’s population. Using algorithm that combined satellite
imagery with machine learning to predict informal land use (through similarity in built density, type of
structures, rooflines, access to paved streets, low elevation and so forth) estimates that about 70 percent of
built-up area in Greater Monrovia is informally developed. (see maps below). This means two out of three
Monrovians reside in such informal settlements,15 with limited or no security of tenure, on public or private
land that is often illegally encroached or reclaimed.
MAP 6: FORMAL AND INFORMAL LANDUSE IN GREATER MONROVIA (INFORMAL AREAS IN RED)
Source: Staff calculations using machine learning algorithms
56. Among informal areas, there are about 113 demarcated slum communities16 distributed across the
city – some of these are the most densely populated areas of Greater Monrovia, and highly concentrated in
15
UN-Habitat (2017)
16
Know your city Initiative by Slum Dwellers International (SDI) in collaboration with Federation of Liberia Urban Poor
Savers (FOLUPS) and Cities Alliance to profile existing slums in Greater Monrovia and conduct participatory needs
assessment for each of those. The slum profile data collected by local communities using a participatory approach,
includes detailed information on locality, size, tenure status, basic amenities, educational, health and social facilities as
well as transport and other public services in each of the slum, along with the key challenges identified and prioritized by
28 | P a g e
environmentally sensitive wetlands. These slum communities are distributed across the city and are not
concentrated in any particular area. As highlighted in the map above, 5km buffer around wetlands have higher
proportion of informality. Additionally, population density in these informal settlements is among the highest
and coincides with peak population densities. For example, population density of West point slum is as high as
40,000-50,000 people per square kilometer in certain sections of the settlement – about the same density as
the infamous Dharavi slum in Mumbai.17
TABLE 9: INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS IN EACH LGA AREA OF MAP 7: POPULATION DENSITY IN SLUMS IS AMONG THE HIGHEST
GREATER MONROVIA IN GREATER MONROVIA
Source: SDI and Cities Alliance ‘Know your city’ slum Source: LISGIS (2008) Census (2008)
profile.
IMAGE 1: ORTHO IMAGE OF WEST POINT SLUM
Source: Drone imagery captured by HOT (ilab and Uhurulabs) in January 2020
the inhabitants, such as water, drainage, sanitation, waste management, flooding, fire outbreak, coastal erosion or
security of tenure.
17
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dharavi
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57. These slum communities are characterized by inadequate access to basic services, poor living
condition and limited accessibility. Most slums are characterized by poor access to improved water and
sanitation, limited solid waste collection, low rates of electrification, poor or limited access to paved roads, and
are at high risk to disasters and epidemics18. A case in point are Clara town and the Doe community19, both low
lying settlements located in or near the flood plain. The few shallow wells in the settlements are contaminated
and residents have to buy water from small-scale private providers. More than 80 percent of slum dwellers
practice open defecation and about 95 percent of the population do not have access to waste collection
services. The communities have limited accessibility, with most people walking on foot to access services,
health facilities and jobs, often through makeshift walkways during the rainy season, as shown in the pictures
below. A significant number of households in both communities live in wet conditions year-round due to
recurring flooding, posing further health risks from cholera, diarrhea and other water borne diseases.
IMAGE 2: DRONE AERIAL IMAGE AND PHOTOGRAPH OF DOE COMMUNITY (SLUM) DURING FLOODS
Source: Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team, iLab Liberia and OSM Liberia (2019).
MAP 8: MOST INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS ARE IDENTIFIED AS COVID-19 58. Today and in the midst of the COVID-
CONTAGION RISK HOTSPOTS 19 pandemic, most informal settlements in
Greater Monrovia have emerged as hotspots
for COVID-19 transmissions. A contagion risk
analysis for COVID-19 20 was carried out for
Greater Monrovia, using existing population
density and livable floor space (to estimate the
potential to maintain physical distancing) and
the location of public services (water points and
public toilets, where people will cluster). The
analysis identified that almost 1 million people
in Greater Monrovia are at risk of becoming ill
with COVID 19, and the risk areas are all in poor
and low income neighborhoods – such as Clara
Town, West Point, Doe, Oakwell, New Kru
Town, Zinc Town, New Georgia – some of which
Source: WB (2020) were also ‘hotspots’ during the Ebola outbreak.
18
Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team, iLab Liberia and OSM Liberia (2019)
19
For these two communities a community mapping pilot program was implemented.
20
World Bank (2020)
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59. Over the years, informality has been associated with disaster risk – and especially flood risk - as
population increasingly settled in environmentally sensitive areas such as wetland, swamps, and reclaimed
land. While not only destroying the environmental functions of these wetland, including the hydraulic
regulations of the river, these highly populated settlements are at a severe risk from flood waters upstream,
sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and land subsidence. For example, since 2013, sea level rise and coastal erosion
has displaced more than 6,500 and destroyed 800 houses in the West Point slum of Monrovia, which is built
on reclaimed land. Additionally, it should be noted that city is subsiding at an average of 1.5mm every year,
especially the reclaimed land on which slums have settled, which will further exacerbate flooding risk.
MAP 9: INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS ON RECLAIMED LAND ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO FLOODING AND LAND SUBSIDENCE
MAP 10: PLUVIAL, FLUVIAL AND COASTAL FLOODING RISK, WILL PRIMARILY HARM INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS
Source for both maps above : Staff calculations using machine learning algorithms for land use; Flood risk estimation for
2030 based on sea level projection by ESA; 1-100 year Pluvial and fluvial flood risk from Fathom Global Flood Hazard
dataset;1965 map from Columbia University Library
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60. Climate change is projected to exacerbate existing flood related disaster risks and increase
vulnerability of informal settlements. Rising temperatures due to climate change21 are prone to impact water
availability across Liberia22, as well as change the amount and distribution of precipitation. Significant inter-
annual variability23 and an increase in extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall and storm surges are
predicted with higher frequency in next 30 years.24 As informal settlements are already located in precarious
sites, sea level rise, coastal flooding, erratic rainfall and erosion will further exacerbate vulnerability and
exposure of slum dwellers, damage critical infrastructure and negatively impact their livelihoods, especially in
‘climate-sensitive’ sectors. Together, the upsurge in rainfall and flooding will also increase risk of epidemics
such as malaria and cholera and diarrheal diseases. 0.8 square kilometer of land has been lost in past 35 years
due to coastal erosion and based on that, 16 cm sea level rise by 2030, will place 675,000 people and 9,500
hectares of land at risk in Greater Monrovia region.
MAP 11: COASTAL EROSION AND SEA LEVEL RISE BY 2030 IS PROJECTED TO DISPROPORTIONATELY IMPACT SLUMS
Source: Coastal and inland flood risk estimation for 2030 based on sea level projection by historical shoreline changes
from 1985-2019, by E04SD team of ESA.
61. Informality – and poor access to services – coupled with flood risks raises a conundrum for policy
makers. Provision of services is key to decrease pandemic risks and improve living conditions, and such
upgrading of informal settlements is also associated with significant economic returns. But flood risks places
concerns on the viability of network infrastructure investments, leading to discussions on alternative ‘off grid’
approached to the delivery of services in these settlements.
21 Under a high-emission scenario, projections show a likely increase of monthly temperatures of 3.2ºC for the 2080-
2099 period, with a possible increase of more than 4.8ºC by 2099 for Liberia (World Bank Climate Change Knowledge
Portal (CCKP))
22
Drakenberg, O., Andersson, F. and Wingqvist, G. 2014. Liberia-environmental and Climate Change Policy Brief.
http://sidaenvironmenthelpdesk.se/wordpress3/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Liberia_EnvCC-PolicyBrief-2013-Final-
Draft.pdf
23
Under a high-emission scenario, monthly precipitation is projected to change by -1.3mm per month in the 2040-2059
period (World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP))
24
USAID, 2017. Liberia Fact Sheet. Climate Change Risk Profile.
https://www.climatelinks.org/sites/default/files/asset/document/2017_USAID%20ATLAS_Climate%20Risk%20Profile_Li
beria.pdf
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2.3. Housing and Urban Services
62. The quality of the housing stock in Greater Monrovia, as assessed through other data mirrors the
spatial analysis on informality. Construction materials for most dwellings are of poor quality: approximately
two thirds of households in Greater Monrovia report living in dwellings constructed out of low-cost, temporary
or basic load-bearing materials. Nevertheless, flooring materials and roofing materials – city-wide – are
generally of a higher quality with non-porous materials such as tile, cement and stone for floors and zin/tin or
cement roofs constituting the vast majority (>95 percent) for most housing. Finally, overcrowding is pervasive
with a quarter of households (23 percent) in the city living in overcrowded conditions.25
63. Poor households and informal settlements are uniformly distributed across the city . Despite the
clustering of slums in certain central parts of the city, proportion of households living in informal dwellings is
evenly distributed making up between 60-70 percent of the housing stock regardless of the distance away from
the city center. Additionally, the distribution of poor households based on the national poverty line mirrors the
distribution if informal settlements across the city.26 This is similar to the distribution of the bottom 40 percent
of households when taking only Greater Monrovia as the frame of reference: the distribution of poor
Monrovian households is even across the city. Overall, this pattern suggests two trends. First, many non-poor
sections of society are likely to live in informal housing or conditions that are slum-like. Second, poorer
households are unlikely to cluster in specific parts of the city but are likely to live in informal conditions
whenever space avails (likely around the perimeter of the Mesurado River).
FIGURE 15: PERCENT OF POOR HOUSEHOLDS AND SETTLEMENTS BY DISTANCE TO THE CITY CENTER
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016)
64. Greater Monrovia is a city of tenants. As of 2016, the city had a significantly higher proportion of
tenant households (55 percent) compared to owner occupants (25 percent), a long-standing pattern as
25
Overcrowding is here estimated using UN definitions where sufficient living area ought to be 3 or less people per
room. See https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-11-01-01.pdf
26
The poverty rate of Montserrado as a whole is 20.3 percent - See
https://www.lisgis.net/pg_img/HIES%202016_StatisticalAbstract_Final_final.pdf. Our estimates indicate the poverty
headcount of Greater Monrovia is similar (19 percent). However, the proportion of households in poverty is closer to
13.5 percent.
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highlighted in previous research.27 This is especially the case for poorer households that are more likely to be
tenants than owners: more than two thirds of households within the bottom 40 percent of Greater Monrovia
wealth distribution are either tenants or live rent free. Areas closer to the city center tend to have a higher
proportion of tenants compared to areas further away – which is a pattern that is especially acute amongst the
poor: the bottom 40 percent of tenant households are far more likely to be located close to the city center.
These spatial patterns indicate the importance of living and working close to Central Monrovia, here classified
as the Center of the Business District (or in short the CBD), while highlighting potential issues with Greater
Monrovia’s general level of connectivity and job accessibility.
FIGURE 16: PERCENT OF TENANT HOUSEHOLDS BY QUINTILE AND DISTANCE FROM THE CITY CENTER
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016)
65. Households in Monrovia spend roughly the same proportion on rental housing across consumption
quintiles. Overall, data from HIES 2016 indicates that households in Monrovia pay between 9 – 10 percent of
their overall household consumption on rent, while additional expenditures on utilities and maintenance
makes up an additional 3-3.5 percent of household consumption. While the share of these expenditures do
not vary significantly across the lower consumption quintiles (Quintiles 1-3), when compared to a national
housing benchmark of 7.22 percent it suggests urban households pay more.28 Overall, patterns in affordability
have not changed over time when compared to previous work on housing affordability conducted by UN
Habitat in 2014.29
27
See UN Habitat, Liberian Housing Profile, 2016, pp 38
28
CPI weights for urban households are not available for Liberia. Most recently available CPI weights available at the
national level from 2019 are available on the LISGIS website – see
https://www.lisgis.net/pg_img/INDEX%20COMPILATION.pdf
29
A study conducted by UN Habitat in 2016 indicated that households living in Greater Monrovia paid, on average,
between LRD 878.51 to LRD 1010.7 on a monthly basis depending on the quality of their dwelling - See UN Habitat,
Liberian Housing Profile, 2016, pp 52
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FIGURE 17: ESTIMATED RENT, UTILITIES AND MAINTENANCE, TRANSPORT, AND FOOD CONSUMPTION AS A PROPORTION OF
HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION FOR TENANTS IN GREATER MONROVIA
Source: Staff calculations using HIES 2016
66. However, actual expenditure on rent shows that the upper 60 spend more than twice on rental
housing compared to the bottom 40. As highlighted in Figure 18, reported monthly rents for households in
the three quintile tend to be higher and vary by location, with highest prices being observed in Central
Monrovia. The opposite is true for the lower two quintile households, for whom rents do not vary significantly
across the city – a likely consequence of the availability of informal dwellings and housing across the city.
FIGURE 18: MONTHLY RENTS BY LOCATION AND HOUSEHOLD QUINTILE
Source: Staff calculations using HIES 2016
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67. House ownership is unaffordable for most Liberians. According to research done by Statistika on the
price of the least cost newly built house by a private developer and existing mortgage finance agreements, less
than 1 percent of Liberia’s urban population would be able to afford to buy such a home. It points to the
expensive cost of housing construction and dysfunctional land markets – observed in many countries of SSA –
in addition to the lack of affordable long term finance.
FIGURE 19: SHARE OF URBAN HOUSEHOLDS WHO CAN AFFORD THE LEAST EXPENSIVE NEWLY BUILT HOUSE IN 2019
Source: Statistica website (2020) https://www.statista.com/statistics/613846/urban-households-who-can-afford-the-
cheapest-new-houses-africa-by-country/
68. Households in Greater Monrovia report higher access to urban services compared to the rest of the
country. Access to water – including both drinking water and water for other activities like washing –
sanitation, waste collection and electricity are significantly higher compared to rural and other urban areas.
Urban service access in other urban areas stand in stark contrast to those in the capital. For example, 27 percent
of households in Greater Monrovia report access to grid electricity compared to approximately 2 percent of
households in urban areas outside Greater Monrovia; access to adequate solid waste management services is
reported by almost 32 percent of households in Greater Monrovia compared to only 3.5 percent of households
in other urban areas . Using JMP definitions for water and sanitation, households report higher access to ‘safely
managed’ or ‘basic’ services compared to their counterparts in the rest of the country.
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TABLE 10: COMPARED TO RURAL AND OTHER URBAN AREAS, GREATER MONROVIA’S URBAN SERVICES ARE FAR BETTER
Sanitation Waste Management
Water Supply Electricity
Source: Staff calculation using HIES (2016). JMP guidelines and definitions have been applied to estimate access to water
and sanitation – See: WHO/ UNICEF at https://washdata.org/ for definitions
69. Despite better access compared to the rest of the country, the provision of urban services in Greater
Monrovia is still poor and has not much improved in recent years. Access to grid electricity and piped water
are especially low with only 27 percent of households reporting access to a grid electricity connection – and
this including illegal connections households tap and that may only light a bulb – and 12 percent reporting
access to piped water, either private or public.30 Between 2008 and 2016, improvements in extending access
have been minimal, except perhaps for electricity, which has increased by 15 percent over this period, but with
the extent of legal connections unknown. The use of piped water for drinking purposes has actually decreased,
a trend likely attributable to the actual or perceived quality of piped water supply.
30
The HIES 2016 does not distinguish between private and public access, and while one can infer ‘private’ access from
households reporting piped indoor connections, households can also have private connections within their compound
and therefore outdoors. Further, the HIES distinguishes between washing and drinking purposes, and ‘rainy’ and ‘non -
rainy’ season. To understand ‘access’, washing and rainy season appear to better capture ‘technical’ access, as
households may use other sources for drinking purposes, especially if they can afford.
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TABLE 11: SERVICE IMPROVEMENTS IN GREATER MONROVIA BETWEEN 2008 AND 2016
City-Wide 2008^^ % City-Wide 2014 % City-wide 2016 %
Piped drinking water (private and public)^ 50.6 32.9 22.8
Piped water for washing 11.8 11.8
(private and public)^
Flush/ VIP Toilets 70.9 59.5 63.9
Waste collection services (collected by govt/ - 32 31.6
private firm)
Grid Electricity (legal and illegal) 12.2 14.0 27.3
Source: HIES (2014); HIES (2016); Census (2008), select indicators with common definitions across years
Notes: ^ water source used during the rainy season; ^^ Urban Montserrado
70. Access to urban services vary by income group, with richer households being better able to cope with
bad quality service provision. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the availability and quality of water. The
penetration of piped water network is limited, with only 8,228 official connections.31 Based on the household
survey, at least 4.2 percent of households within the top quintile have access to private piped water, compared
to 0.5 percent in the bottom quintile. While the water source used for non-drinking purposes, such as washing,
is more similar across quintiles, when it comes to drinking water richer households are more likely to use
bottled water (50 percent) compared to the bottom quintile (8 percent), which relies mostly on boreholes,
tube wells and public standpipes.
FIGURE 20: DRINKING WATER BY CONSUMPTION QUINTILE FIGURE 21: WATER FOR WASHING BY CONSUMPTION QUINTILE
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016); Notes: water source used during the rainy season
71. Access to grid electricity is conditioned by location, with households closer to Central Monrovia
being more likely connected to the grid. The electricity network appears to reach households within 7 km of
distance to the center, as from that point the majority of households report using off-grid electricity options as
31
Estimates from WSP/ Hydroconseil in 2014 put the number of residential connections at 8,228. Based on the HIES, the
estimated number of households in Greater Monrovia is (276,315). As such, the proportion of connections is
approximately 3 percent. See WSP/ Hydroconseil (2014), pp 24
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their main source of electricity. A number of factors might be the cause of this, including the fact that most of
the city’s main Electricity Transmission network is supplied to Central Monrovia32 and that the high cost (about
USD 0.54 per KW hour) and infrequent provision of electricity have pushed many households and businesses
to use own power generation options across the city.33
72. Better access to services in areas closer to Central Monrovia are also relevant for other services such
as piped water and waste collection. This is unsurprising given Greater Monrovia’s rapid growth, decades of
conflict and underinvestment in the expansion of networks to areas that extend beyond the city’s original
boundaries. Regarding access to piped water, we find that households closer to the CBD are significantly more
likely to report using piped connections regardless if they are household, yard or standpipe connections – all
of which are services provided by the Liberia Water and Sewage Corporation (LWSC). On the other hand,
households further away are more likely to resort to wells and boreholes to obtain water. The figures below
show the spatial dimensions of limited access highlighting the proportion of households with access to various
sources based on their distance from the CBD.
FIGURE 22: ACCESS TO WASTE COLLECTION, WATER AND ELECTRICITY BY SOURCE AND DISTANCE FROM CBD
Electricity Water Waste collection services
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016)
32
See UN Habitat , Liberia Housing Profile , 2014, pp 83; See also World Bank, Greater Monrovia Region Spatial Analytics,
August 2019, pp 21
33
UN Habitat, Liberia Housing Profile, 2014 pp 88
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BOX 2: ESTIMATING IMPLICIT SUBSIDIES FOR WATER
Across greater Monrovia, access to reliable piped water connections are most often only available for wealthy households. As
highlighted in Figure 21, approximately 65.5 percent of those with reliable* indoor piped water connections are in the top two
quintiles while only 22 percent are in the bottom two.
In most countries across the world, including Liberia, piped water access is subsidized by government as a means of expanding
access. WSP/ Hydroconseil estimate that the cost of water distribution by LWSC is approximately USD 6.8/1000 GL while the cost
of water production is approximately USD 1.57/1000 GL. This means that the country’s current tariff of USD5/1000 GL is well below
the actual costs incurred.** Additionally, households with piped water connections save time from having to fetch water from
sources outside their dwelling.
Assuming a benchmark of 20 liters per capita per day for water usage (drinking, cooking, washing) for Monrovians, we can use the
HIES 2016 to estimate the amount of the implicit subsidies that is enjoyed by households with piped water connections both in
terms of (i) costs and (ii) time savings.
In terms of financials we estimate the following:
Source* Avg. HH Est. No. of Households Tariff (per Total household consumption Total Household daily/
size (in Greater Monrovia) Gallons) - USD per day (gallons) yearly expenditure
Piped water (indoors) 4 3875 0.005 21.1 0.105/ 38.5
Piped water (outdoors) 3.7 27470 0.005 19.5 0.098/ 35.8
Standpipe^ 5 24,940 0.0025 25.9 0.065/ 23.7
Water vendor/ push-push 3,203 0.08 24.8 1.9 / 724.2
3.6
water cart#
Bottled water$ 1.4 582 1 7.4 7.4/ 2701
In terms of time savings, we estimate the following using the amount of time it takes an individual to retrieve water from the
same source drinking:
Source – rainy season Total number Time to fetch water Time to wait at water Cost per Cost per year (USD)
of households (minutes – p50) source (minutes – p50) trip (USD)^ – 2 trips per day
Piped outdoors 27470 10 5 0.17 62.05
Public standpipe 21490 13 5 0.20 73
Boreholes 44768 8 3 0.15 62.05
Water vendor/ push-push cart 1907 12 4 0.18 131.4
Closed well 127787 10 5 0.17 124.1
Open well 25084 7 5 0.14 102.2
Bottled water 582 5 2 0.07 57.9
Based on these calculations, the estimated cost savings for households with access to piped water is close to USD 58 based on
time savings when compared to public standpipe users. Similar savings are also apparent when comparing piped water users to
other water users, the largest being those who rely on water vendors or push-push carts.
*As mentioned previously, we use access to piped water connection for washing as an indicator of a reliable connection. This is based on the fact that many poor
households seek out improved water connections – including those from pipes - for drinking purposes. The number of households that report access to indoor piped
water for washing additionally is 1.4 percent overall (3875 households) while the number of connections is estimated at 8228. Differences might be attributable to a
number of official water connections that serve as yard connections serving multiple households.
**See WSP/ Hydroconseil, 2014, pp 30
*As per the Decent Work Act (2015) is USD 0.68 per hour (https://www.ilo.org/dyn/natlex/natlex4.detail?p_lang=en&p_isn=100329&p_country=LBR&p_count=53,
pp 45)
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73. Lack of widespread availability of public service provision means that households across Greater
Monrovia tend to also rely on private and decentralized services. More than half of Greater Monrovia’s
households source water for washing and cooking from closed and open wells. Similarly, households often
report obtaining drinking water from water vendors and ‘push-push’ cart vendors, or they buy bottled water.
Most households - approximately 70 percent - report obtaining their water from multiple different sources
highlighting both the unreliability of any one source and household coping mechanisms. Electricity access is
equally reliant on private solutions, with a high proportion of households resorting to diesel generators or solar
lamps (20.4 percent), although they are not complete substitutes.34 Finally, improved sanitation – either flush
toilets or improved and ventilated pit latrines – are fairly common, though often not adequate for densely
populated areas, where excreta and leachate is more likely to contaminate aquifers and wells, from which
some people drink.
74. The reliance on privately provided or decentralized services, however, does not mean households
are better off. With electricity access, for example, there is evidence that access to larger appliances are more
highly correlated with grid electricity but not with generators; these include televisions, irons, water heaters
and electric fans. 35 Moreover, for the majority of households that are unlikely to afford a generator, no
electricity is often only option (52 percent). Further, when essential public and privately managed services fail
or are lacking, households resort to accessing services illegally through theft (such as illegal connections for
electricity access), or disposing of waste in unauthorized areas (about 53 percent of households) – see below.
BOX 3: ELECTRICITY THEFT
Electricity theft is regarded as a frequent occurrence in developing countries although the extent of the theft is often unclear.
Moreover, the cost of electricity theft to the government is often difficult to calculate or estimate.
The HIES survey asks two questions that might shed light on the extent of electricity theft in Greater Monrovia: (i) Do
households report access to grid connections as their main source of electricity and (ii) do they report paying for electricity in
the last 30 days? Comparing answers to these questions we observe that approximately 5 percent of households (8,200) report
accessing grid power as their main source but not recording payment while 36 percent (36,850) report paying but not receiving
electricity as their main source of energy. The former might be classified as households that are most likely to steal electricity
while the latter are households that are more likely to obtain limited amounts of electricity from a neighbor to supplement an
alternative supply.
Considering only those who do not pay, an average consumption of 57.9 kWh per year and an average tariff of USD 0.54 kWh,
the minimum amount that electricity theft might cost the utility could be in the range of USD 1,051,00. Adjusting for the fact
that approximately 14 percent of these households are likely to be below the poverty line, the costs to the utility at a minimum is
still significant.
*We assume an average household size of 4.1 based on HIES 2016. We obtain average Liberian per capita electricity consumption rates from
World Data - See https://www.worlddata.info/africa/liberia/energy-consumption.php
75. Waste collection rates in Greater Monrovia are some of the lowest on the continent, despite waste
generation rates that are comparable with countries of its level of development and size. A study by Kaza et
al (2018) estimated waste generation in Greater Monrovia at approximately 284,700 tons per year in 2007
34
We find strong evidence of a positive correlation between generator ownership and grid electricity access. A
household that owns a generator in Greater Monrovia is 44 percentage points more likely to also have access to a grid
connection (significant at the 1 percent level) compared to household that does not own a generator.
35
We estimate the difference in the probability of electrical appliance ownership by running two logistic regressions and
determining the odds of a household having a grid connection or a generator, conditional on having a certain appliance.
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based on a 0.7 kg/person/day generation rate.36 This is much above the country level estimate shown in the
figure below and given today’s population in Greater Monrovia, the volume is likely to be severely
underestimated. Critically, comparisons of waste collection rates across Sub-Saharan Africa place Greater
Monrovia near the bottom of the list in terms of the percent of population being covered with waste collection
services, highlighting the fact that most household waste is not being disposed of and treated in an adequate
way. Further, even the waste that is collected is unlikely to be disposed of in poorly managed open-air landfills
and skip buckets.
FIGURE 23: WASTE GENERATION RATES IN 2016 (KILOGRAM/PERSON/DAY)
Source: Kaza et al (2018)
36
See Kaza et al. (2018), pp 201; see Datalibrary - https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/what-waste-global-
database.
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FIGURE 24: ESTIMATED WASTE COLLECTION RATES FOR CITIES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Source: Kaza et al (2018)
76. By and large, Monrovia’s household waste collection system is decentralized with a number of
Community Based Enterprises (CBEs) collecting waste door to door and disposing them in skip buckets .37 As
of 2016, 40 CBEs provide the majority of primary waste collection services based on a contractual agreement
signed with the Monrovia City Corporation (MCC) and are responsible for collecting waste from administrative
Zones. Two sanitation firms are then responsible for moving the waste from skip buckets and depositing them
to transfer stations in the north and South of the city.
77. Part of the problem regarding waste collection services in Greater Monrovia might be attributed to
the structure of the waste collection system. A number of problems have been reported across all parts of the
system. First, waste collection is divided by zone, leaving CBEs with a limited market in which they can ply their
trade; this leaves them with little opportunity to change and invest in additional infrastructure – such as trucks
or trolleys - to improve their waste collection capacity. Second, issues have cropped up with secondary waste
collectors that have consistently failed to achieve their contractual obligations. Third, the tariffs charged by
local CBEs range between LD$10-100 per week and are generally unaffordable to many households, who in
turn refused to pay at various times over the last year.38 And finally, SWM is grossly underfunded in the national
37
Waste collections from institutions are managed by Small and medium Enterprises (SMEs)
38
UN Habitat, Liberia Housing Profile, 2016, pp 88
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budget, with limited revenues collected by the MCC from CBE licensing fees. This has left Monrovia with a
situation where many households resort to unofficial means in order to dispose of their waste.
FIGURE 25: SYSTEM DIAGRAM OF GREATER MONROVIA’S WASTE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
Source: Staff illustrations based on interviews with the MCC
78. Finally, in Monrovia, existing critical infrastructure and assets, such as 30 km of major roads 39, 35%
of schools and 14% of hospitals are currently located in a flood risk zone. As of 2014, 104sq.km of built-up
area in the metropolitan region is located in the flood risk zone, increasing at an average annual rate of 0.37%
between the years 1975 and 2014. It is projected that a one-meter rise in sea level by end of century, will place
almost 230,000 people at risk and cause the loss of 2,150 square kilometers of coastal land, including the
infrastructure and much of Monrovia, valued at US$250 million for the country.40 Such threats raise questions
on the viability financing network infrastructure in areas which may soon be destroyed
39 Only about 10 percent of the limited road network is passable year-round, and many of the country’s productive centers are cut off
from Monrovia during the six-month rainy season (ibid,11).
40 Liberia: Initial National Communication.2013. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/lbrnc1.pdf.
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2.4. Connecting People to Jobs
Most formal employment opportunities are located in central Monrovia, but poor public transportation,
coupled with a high degree of pedestrianization means that residents located in the periphery are excluded
from formal employment with residents located centrality trading safe housing in the periphery with risky
(and cheaper housing) in the center of the city
79. Firms and formal employment opportunities are concentrated in Central Monrovia. Both enterprise
and employment density is highest in the central zones of Greater Monrovia and around the port that offer
about 33 percent of the city’s employment opportunities and around 70 percent of all formal jobs. This of
course does not include the numerous informal jobs of small businesses, market tenders and other service
providers that mostly lack access to motorized transport and therefore work in the majority in the area where
they live.
FIGURE 26: ENTERPRISE DENSITY BY ZONE FIGURE 27: EMPLOYMENT DENSITY BY ZONE
Source: MCC business survey 2017
80. Almost a third of workers employed reach their primary job by foot and slightly more than a third
arrive by public taxi (mini-buses). Taken together, the use of public taxi (mini-buses), public motorcycle and
public bus show a high dependency on public transportation by commuters (54 percent). However, when
considering workers living at distance from the CBD without access to motorized transportation, evidence from
the HIES survey suggests that they reach jobs within walking distance of less than 20 minutes (see figure on the
right below). This highlights the fact that those who rely on commuting by foot are more likely to travel to areas
around their place of residence and are unlikely to avail better employment opportunities downtown.
Additionally, those who rely on motorized vehicles – including both private and public transport – report longer
travel times, suggesting that many jobs are located closer to the city center and are worthwhile the cost of
travel.
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FIGURE 28: CURRENT MODE OF TRANSPORT FOR FIGURE 29: LENGTH OF COMMUTE (IN MINUTES FOR
EMPLOYED INDIVIDUALS TO THEIR PRIMARY JOB MOTORIZED AND NON-MOTORIZED TRANSPORT MODES (BY
DISTANCE OF HOME FROM CBD)
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016) Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016)
81. The limited use of public buses (3 percent) is a likely sign of public buses not being more commonly
available. The presence of bus services (or their lack) is often correlated with public sector capacity and the
ability to manage viable transit networks. Given the popularity of public taxis or “mini-buses”, there is evidence
that the private sector has stepped in to offer a service where the government has been unable to provide.
Additionally, bus services are also correlated with the availability of a good road network, and the want for
paved roads in Greater Monrovia are likely to constitute a severe bottleneck to such services. Given the current
fragmentation already imposed by Greater Monrovia’s geography and inefficient land use in the more central
areas of the city, the lack of critical bus corridors linking settlements to downtown jobs could be a major
obstacle to economic growth and shared prosperity.
FIGURE 30: THE LENGTH OF PAVED ROADS IN GREATER FIGURE 31: THE DENSITY (KM/KM2) OF ALL ARTERIAL
MONROVIA IS WITH 57.5 METERS PER 1,000 INHABITANTS ROADS IN GREATER MONROVIA IS THE LOWEST AMONG
THE LOWEST AMONG SELECT CITIES SELECT CITIES WHERE COMPARABLE DATA IS AVAILABLE
500 0.9
meters per 1,000 population
450 0.8
Density (km/km2)
400 0.7
350
0.6
300
250 0.5
200 0.4
150 0.3
100 0.2
50 0.1
-
0
Freetown
Lagos
Dakar
Monrovia
Abidjan
Kampala
Dar es Salaam
Conakry
Nairobi
Johannesburg
Accra
Lagos
Monrovia
Source: WB (2018), Greater Monrovia Transport Diagnostic, Powerpoint Presentation
82. Without affordable and viable long distance transport options, the majority of lowest wage earners
in the periphery are likely stuck in their current employment. Lower income earners are five times more likely
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to depend on walking to reach their work, compared to higher wage earners that can afford a private car,
irrespective of where they live. Public taxi use is also more common among wage earner with at least USD 100
per month but tails off for higher incomes. The use of bicycles as an affordable mode of transportation that
could extend the radius of job opportunities is not commonly used and could be a missed opportunity.
TABLE 12: MODE OF TRANSPORT BY ESTIMATED WEEKLY WAGES (LRD)
Mode <= LRD 1500 LRD 1501-3000 LRD 3001-4500 LRD 4501-7500 >=LRD 7500
n=138 n=201 n=111 n=78 n=113
Foot 55.5 37.8 21.7 14.7 13.1
Bicycle 0.4 0 0 0 0.5
Public Motorcycle 11.9 17.0 17.1 7.0 5.6
Private motorcycle 0.2 0.4 1.2 0 0
Public Bus 2.1 3.3 3.6 3.7 1.7
Public Taxi 23.9 37.2 47.8 63.3 30.0
Employer provided transport 3.0 2.8 7.1 6.3 16.9
Private car 3.2 1.5 1.5 5.0 32.3
Total 100 100 100 100 100
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016)
83. When presented with limited connectivity to jobs, households are likely trading-off safe housing
further away from CBD with housing that is risky but affordable. The proliferation of slums near Central
Monrovia (West Point, Clara Town, etc) is testimony to its residents seeking proximity to downtown jobs,
despite the inherent risks associated with these settlements. Rental payments reflect the willingness to pay for
certain housing characteristics, including public services, and the respective location. So one would expect that
households would pay more for better housing and, everything equal, less when housing is at risk of flooding
or further away from Central Monrovia. This can be tested through a hedonic regression.
84. As expected , better housing and better services – water, electricity, waste collection and sanitation
– are associated with higher rental values. Better reinforced housing structures are associated with rental
values that are about 42 to 43 percent higher, on average and all things equal, and better floors catch 25
percent more rent. Likewise, higher rental values are estimated for piped indoor water (44 percent), having a
government bin from where garbage is being collected (18 to 22 percent), access to electricity from the grid
(14 to 21 percent) or generator (42 to 45 percent), and using a flush toilet (65 to 74 percent). The lower
coefficients for grid electricity compared to generator reflects the unreliable nature of electricity provision, so
that households value a generator more than a connection.
85. However, distance from CBD nor self-reported risk of flooding do not appear to have bearing on
rental values. Controlling for flood risk and distance to Central Monrovia does not generate significant
variables; neither when using an interaction term that would identify rent differential in risky and non-risky
areas close to CBD. One likely explanations for this is the pervasiveness of informal settlements across Greater
Monrovia, and the likely probability that the few high end properties in Greater Monrovia are unlikely to be
sampled by the household survey.
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FIGURE 32: HEDONIC REGRESSION RESULTS (SELECT VARIABLES)
Log(rental value) is dependent variable Coefficients
No. of rooms 0.160*** to 0.163***
Reinforced construction walls (concrete, cement) 0.423*** to 0.438***
Cement, tiles for roof Insignificant
Cement, tiles for floors 0.251*
Piped water – indoors 0.438*
Government bin for waste 0.179*to 0.217**
Grid electricity 0.141*to 0.214***
Generator 0.418*** to 0.445***
Flush toilet 0.650** to 0.744***
Floods Insignificant
Distance Insignificant
only >8km 0.219**
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016); detailed regression in Annex 3
Notes: statistically significant at *** 1 percent, ** 5 percent, and * 10 percent
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2.5. Monrovia’s Underused Real Estate and Land
86. Only eleven percent of total land in Greater Monrovia is either built upon or occupied by paved
roads, leaving more than two-thirds of the land in the city underutilized. With building footprints occupying
about 10 percent (19 sqkm.) and paved roads (excluding sidewalks) occupying less than one percent (1 sqkm),
only 11 percent of total land (excluding waterbodies) in the city is used. More than 75 percent of remaining
land is underutilized. Additionally, it should be noted that about seventy percent of total land in Monrovia is
informally developed, as already discussed in section 2.2. above.
87. Public assets occupy about eight percent of total land and roughly six percent of built-up area in
Greater Monrovia. As per tentative location of public assets identified by MCC, roughly 15 sqkm of land and
1.15 sqkm of built-up area is publicly owned. This includes assets owned by different tiers of government,
public institutions including educational and health facilities, religious buildings, cemeteries and parks (it
should be noted that beaches are not included). Specifically, within Central Monrovia, which has most public
assets, about 45 percent of public assets are institutional buildings and only two percent accounts for public
spaces.
MAP 12: SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF BUILDING AND LAND OWNED BY PUBLIC SECTOR IN CENTRAL MONROVIA
Source: Staff calculations using approximate location of publicly owned assets provided by MCC urban development
team (2019).
88. Within the central part of Monrovia41, 79 percent of plot areas are underutilized or vacant, indicating
high potential for better land utilization. From 18 sqkm of area analyzed in central part of Monrovia, only 3.6
sqkm is utilized by roads and sidewalks, and from remaining 14.4 sqkm of land only 3 sqkm is built upon leaving
more than 11 sqkm as underutilized, unused or inefficiently used open space.
41
This includes Central Monrovia A, Central Monrovia B, Caldwell, Sinkor, Larkpazee, Sinkor old road and West point.
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MAP 13: MORE THAN TWO-THIRD OF LAND IN CENTRAL PART OF MONROVIA IS UNDERUTILIZED OR POORLY USED
Source: Plot boundaries and roads digitized from ortho-drone imagery and OSM building footprints.
89. Floor space Index (FSI) in Central business district is very low, highlighting hidden potential to achieve
huge economic gains, by incentivizing densification and leveraging private investment . FSI in central
Monrovia ranges from 0.2 to 2.7, with an average
FIGURE 33: FLOOR SPACE INDEX ACROSS PLOTS IN CENTRAL of 0.88, is on lower end as compared to city core of
MONROVIA similar capital cities. In most large cities around the
world, FSI usually varies from 5 to 15 in the city
center to about 0.5 or below in the suburbs. As
technology and infrastructure improve, the FSI in
the city center tends to increase in most cities and
therefore, there is a huge potential to densify CBD
of Monrovia for economic incentives. 77 percent of
buildings in Central Monrovia are one-storey high
with an exception of very few (~15) buildings that
are more than six-storeys. There are varied urban
development tools that can be used for
incentivizing densification for economic gains, such
Source: Staff calculation using total built-up areas per plot. as vacancy taxes (explored in Annex 5), spot-zoning
to allow higher FSI, land-value capture, transferring
development rights, betterment levies and so on. For example, the city can auction or lease vacant/underused
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public land for private sector investment and incentivize high-density real-estate development. The city can
also transfer its rights to engage in more intensive land development—a higher floor space index (FSI) or higher
FAR—to “finance” and incentivize urban regeneration42. Similarly, betterment levies, which are a form of tax
or a fee levied on land that has gained in value because of public infrastructure investments, can also be used
by the city for value capture. 43
MAP 14: THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL INDICATING HIGHER BUILT-DENSITY IN CENTRAL
Source: 3D view of city created by staff in CityEngine software using digital terrain model and digital surface model to
extract mean building heights and by digitizing plot boundary from ortho drone imagery (captured by HOT,ilab and
Uhurulabs) and building footprints extracted from OSM.
42
Development rights generally refer to the maximum amount of floor area permissible on a zoning lot. When the actual
built floor area is less than the maximum permitted floor area, the difference is referred to as “unused development
rights,” “air rights,” or “excess density rights.” These excess density rights represent the publicly controlled share of
privately owned land. These rights have economic value that can be sold by public authorities, which happened in São
Paulo and New York City. (https://urban-regeneration.worldbank.org/node/22).
43
Peterson (2009).
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FIGURE 34:BUILT-UP AREA VS. OPEN SPACE IN CENTRAL MONROVIA 90. Open Space Ratio (OSR) of Central business
district in Monrovia, at almost sixty percent, is
very high (compared to similar cities) pointing to
inefficient land utilization at large. OSR in
central Monrovia ranges from 15 to 85 percent,
with an average of 59 percent, is on a higher end
as compared to city core of similar cities. As
referred above, varied urban development tools,
such as land re-adjustment, land pooling, land
value-capture and so forth can be used to
incrementally improve land utilization that can
also yield economic gains for the city. An up to
date cadaster is a perquisite.
Source: Building footprint from OSM
FIGURE 35: BYPOLOGY OF PARKING IN CENTRAL MONROVIA 91. About 78,000 square meter of area
in Central District is occupied by underused or
dead parking space. From 122,228 sqm of
parking space identified in Central Monrovia
(A&B), more than sixty percent (~78,000 sqm.)
is either underused, dead or vacant, which can
be used by the city to incentivize densification
and leverage private investment.
Source: Staff analysis using ortho drone imagery to
digitize and categorize parking.
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FIGURE 36: PERCENTAGE OF LAND AREA DEDICATED TO STREETS IN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE AND OCEANIA CITIES
Source: Shruggs (2015)
92. Although area dedicated to streets in central part of Monrovia is quite high (indicating potential for
accommodating higher density real-estate development), currently most of those streets and sidewalks are
congested by vehicular and pedestrian traffic, thereby reducing its usability, walkability and safety . The
central part of Monrovia has relatively good amount of street space and connectivity, with about 20 percent
of the total area occupied by paved roads and sidewalks. But currently, most streets in central district are not
pedestrian friendly, are unsafe (due to increased probability of traffic accidents) and are congested, as most of
the streets are occupied by vehicular traffic which is mismanaged and most of the sidewalks are encroached
by street vendors throughout the day. This ratio of area occupied by streets is comparable to core city areas of
high-density city like Tokyo (although it has better transit infrastructure) and indicates potential to leverage
high density development provided transit infrastructure is improved, and its streets and public spaces are
better organized and managed. Lastly, it should be noted that the road density decreases dramatically as you
move away from Central business district towards residential or low-income areas, indicating low-density
sprawl in other parts of the city.
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IMAGE 3: ORTHO IMAGE OF CBD SHOWING CONGESTED STREETS AND SIDEWALKS
Source: Drone imagery captured by HOT (ilab and Uhurulabs) in January 2020.
93. Considering the large areas of land and buildings that are underutilized in Central Monrovia, there
are different ways to incentivize or leverage their better use. During and after the civil war, a lot of buildings
in central district were damaged or abandoned, which could be revitalized or re-built by leveraging the private
sector as a tenant at discounted lease rates or as investor. For example, a seven storey abandoned building in
CBD that was previously used by government has a potential to be re-used once revitalized, and a back of the
envelop computation based on current real
FIGURE 37: THERE ARE LOT OF UNDERUTILIZED LAND AND BUILDINGS IN
estate rentals could point to significant
CENTRAL MONROVIA (GREEN CIRCLES ARE FEW SAMPLE SITES)
earnings for government, once these
buildings are reinstated (see Annex 5).
Similarly, underutilized public land such as
abandoned Ducor hotel, old airfield that is
not used, vacant lots with remains of
damaged buildings, underused or dead
parking lots (some within ministry buildings)
are potential public assets that could be
leveraged for private investment and
generate revenue for the long-term
improvement of city infrastructure and
services. More efficient use of private land
could be incentivized by taxing vacancies, but
this would require an effective land
Source: Staff calculations using rough location of publicly registration system (see Annex 5).
owned assets provided by MCC
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2.6. Congested markets and waste
94. Monrovia’s markets play a key role in informal employment and retail, and have the potential to
significantly contribute to local revenues – but they are plagued by poor management and lack of investment.
Significant food loss due to inadequate storage – especially cold storage facilities reduces daily profits of
vendors by approximately eight percent. Poor market management resulting from unclear agreements
between the traders and the Liberia Markets Association (LMA) and the LMA and the Municipality and the
growth of the market, reduced revenues collected by the LMA between 3-7 times, while no revenues are
remitted to the municipalities. Significant infrastructure deficiencies including drainage and public facilities
affects vendor health and has environmental impacts on the surrounding neighborhoods
95. Open air markets are common across the urban landscape in Greater Monrovia. These markets,
which include vendors selling everything from dry goods, to fresh produce, meat, and fish are an important
part of the urban food system. Additionally these markets also provide Monrovians with important non-
perishables such as electronics and clothes; service providers such as barbers, tailors and motor vehicle repair
shops are commonplace. While open-air markets often operate with informal vendors and do not always
conform to regulations, they play a critical role in MAP 15: DUALA MARKET INCLUDING EXPANDED AREAS AND
catering to the urban poor both in terms ensuring food SATURDAY, KUWAIT AND KANGAR SUBMARKETS
security and providing a common location from which
to access essential services.
96. One of the largest and most popular open-air
markets is Duala Market. Located in New Kru town,
the market area is home to approximately 1,553-3,793
vendors, the majority of which operate outside the
original Duala market building. Over the years, the
market has steadily grown to approximately 11.8 times
its original size and now encompasses an area 0.20
km2. Additionally, the market now incorporates three
additional sub-markets namely Kuwait, Saturday and
Kangar Building markets. Vendors sell all manner of
goods including dry goods, fruits and vegetables,
frozen foods and meats, textiles and electronics.
97. Despite the market’s importance in providing
essential retail services to Monrovians, the area is in
need of infrastructure upgrades and managerial
improvements. As part of its work to strengthen food
systems and improve the quality of life for Monrovians,
the World Bank in collaboration with Humanitarian
Open Street Maps (HOTOSM) conducted a
comprehensive analysis of Duala Market using multiple
surveys of vendors, a study of traffic patterns and
congestion, an analysis of solid-waste management
Source: HOTOSM/ iLab
practices, and qualitative interviews with government
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administrators responsible for market operations. Based on this review, Duala market has the potential to
improve across a number of key dimensions.
98. First, Duala market poses major environmental and health hazards due to the poor number and
quality of sanitation facilities as well as their precarious location. In total only 12 toilet facilities and 17 water
points are located in the vicinity of the Duala market area catering to households, vendors and visitors to the
market. Rough population estimates based on Facebook population data put the estimated number of users
for each toilet facility between 2,200-9,500.44 Additionally, the location of toilets next to wetlands increases
the potential for groundwater contamination and the rapid spread of waterborne diseases. At present 93
percent of toilets without proper infrastructure are situated within 100 meters of a wetland.
FIGURE 38: THE LOCATION OF TOILETS VIS-À-VIS WETLAND AREAS IN DUALA MARKET
Source: HOTOSM/ iLab
99. Second, the congested nature of the market makes it particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 and other
communicable disease related risks. Overall, the market area has a density equivalent to almost double that
of the City. Moreover, it faces an influx of vehicular – mostly kehkehs and private vehicles/ taxis - and pedestrian
traffic during rush hour (8h00-9h00, and 17h00) creating large roadblocks and difficulties for pedestrians to
adhere to social-distancing guidelines. Additionally, the number of freight deliveries from taxis and delivery
trucks tend to increase congestion on the road due to the amount of time that is spent unloading goods (~15-
20 minutes). The lack of sidewalks combined with intrusion of vendors onto the main road further exacerbates
congestion. Finally, the lack of water points or handwashing stations (only 12 exist in the market area - see
44
We estimate the proportion of potential users by outlining buffer regions around each toilet at 100meters and 250
meters, estimating the population living in these areas and dividing it by the number of working toilets. Facebook
population data from 2018 was used to make these estimates – See https://dataforgood.fb.com/tools/population-
density-maps/
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above) are also problematic given the ‘high-touch’ environment of the market and the sheer number of daily
visitors.
100. Third, poor infrastructure makes Duala market susceptible to natural disasters, such as flooding, and
other public health concerns, such as malaria. In particular, focus group discussions reveal that drainage
networks are one of the biggest shortcomings in the market. Approximately 1.3 km of storm water drains exist
in the expanded market area but nearly all of them have no existing outflow or are too blocked by debris to
drain. Further, drains are fragmented across the expanded market area and do not conform to any coherent
system of stormwater management. As such, flooding is common across the market especially during the peak
of the rainy season. Moreover, the pollution resulting from poor solid waste management have resulted in
customers avoiding the market in recent times owing to its bad smell and the high probability of contracting
diseases such as malaria.
IMAGE 4: FLOODING REACHING WAIST LEVEL ACROSS UN DRIVE DURING PEAK RAINY SEASON
Source: HOTOSM/ iLab
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BOX 4: ESTIMATED FOOD WASTE AT DUALA MARKET
In addition to poor drainage, fragmented drainage and haphazard solid waste management, food waste
is a major pollution vector at Duala market. The study on Duala Market conducted by the World Bank
and HOTOSM/ iLab included questions on the proportion of the total stock that is wasted on a daily basis
from various perishable vendors. This provides a rough snapshot of the amount of waste that is produced
on a daily basis.
On average, fruit and vegetable vendors experienced a daily loss of 2.4-4.8 pounds (lbs) per day while
meat vendors reported a daily loss of 1.1-1.4 pounds (lbs) per day. Vegetable vendors most frequently
reported losses for leafy greens such as Cassava leaves and Cabbage* while meat vendors indicated that
pig and chicken feet were the products most lost along with fresh fish. Figure 39 breaks down the losses
by item.
FIGURE 39: ESTIMATED FOOD LOSS BY PRODUCT
Potatoes
Pig Feet
Pepper
Frozen Chicken
Okra
Fresh Fish
Eggplant
Chicken Feet
Cassava
Beef
Bitterball
0 20 40 60 80 100 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Sold Stored Wasted Sold Stored Wasted
Source: HOTOSM/ iLab; Staff calculations
Based on data from vendors, we estimate that approximately 734-1,363 kg of food waste is generated
per day. On a yearly basis this would amount to ~383 tons, which while only being a small fraction of the
total waste generated in Greater Monrovia (~284,000 tons), is still significant given the limited number
of waste disposal facilities around the market (7).
One of the key impediments to improving issues related to food waste is the lack of an adequate
storage facility. While Duala Market and Saturday market manage warehouses they lack sufficient space
for all vendors and sufficient facilities such a cooling and electricity based cold storage to allow for
vendors to store perishables. Additionally, the cost of storage is high with prices varying based on the
volume of good to be stored; an average dry-goods table is reported to cost vendors LRD 250 per month.
The consequence of inadequate storage is that most vendors either resort of taking vegetables home or
disposing of them in local waste dumpsites.
*We only estimate losses for products for which there were at least 10 vendors
Source: HOTOSM/ iLab; Staff calculations
101. Fourth, inadequate internal infrastructure – especially around storage – results in significant loss of
income for vendors. On average, vegetable vendors might lose up to LRD 850 while meat vendors might lose
up to LRD 154 on a daily basis on food waste. Vendors also report losing a significant proportion of their
product as a result of overnight storage – amounting to approximately LRD 373 for vegetable vendors and LRD
148 for meat vendors. Given that vendors carry between LRD 14,819 -15,398 worth of goods daily, these loses
represent between 2-8 percent of total revenues, which are significant. Moreover, while these losses are
damaging for vendors, they are also likely to translate into higher costs for customers.
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102. Finally, the market is managed in a haphazard manner – a function of the complex web of
government entities, private entities and informal entities govern vendors and handle fee collection.
Officially, the Liberia Markets Association (LMA) is primary entity in charge of fee collection and management
across the entire market. This institution also handles the daily activities of the formal Duala Market, situated
within the confines of the original building. However, between Saturday market, Kuwait Market and Kangar
market, three additional institutions – Afrindo Shopping Centre, the Liberia Market Association, New Kru Town
Governor’s Office, and the Federation of Petty traders (FEPTIWUL) – collect fees from formal, informal and
petty traders of which only a portion is received by the LMA. The lack of clarity in terms of organization
structure has often resulted in conflict. However, one of the biggest consequences of poor market
management is the shortfall in revenue collection by between 3-7 times, as the majority of vendors operating
in the expanded market do not pay into the LMA. An added complication is that the LMA then does not remit
any funds to the MCC or PCC – as per agreement45. These loss of revenues likely hamper improvements to the
overall condition of the market and the quality of facilities available.
45
In 1989 the Government transferred responsibilities for markets from local government to the new Liberia Markets Association
(LMA) without clear arrangements for expanding and maintaining the markets or for collecting garbage generated there. Plagued by
charges of corruption and mismanagement, the General Auditing Commission (GAC) undertook financial and systems audits in August
2018.
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2.7. Skills of Greater Monrovia’s Workers
103. Skills, literacy and education are critical components for the development of Greater Monrovia as a
city and for Liberia as a whole. Indeed, in addition to the ‘hard infrastructure’ of improved roads, sanitation,
housing and flood protection, the city also needs to develop the ‘soft infrastructure’ of basic literacy, vocational
skills and access to education to ensure Monrovians from all walks of life have access to better jobs and better
opportunities. Furthermore, in order to reap the benefits of agglomeration economies, and move the economy
of Monrovia towards a ‘Knowledge-based’ economy, improving the overall education level of the city’s
inhabitants is critical.46
104. Improvements in basic literacy are evident in Liberia’s capital over the last decade . Estimates of
literacy based on analysis of the Census and HIES 2016 surveys indicate that both adults and youth population
had improved in terms of their ability to read English or any other language. Overall, literacy levels remain
lowest in rural areas and highest in urban Montserrado/ Greater Monrovia. Moreover, despite improvements
across the country, urban areas – and in particular Greater Monrovia – saw great improvements with literacy
rates increasing by approximately 10 percentage points for youth populations and between 7-8 percentage
points for adults. This is likely a function of individuals having opportunities to improve their skills in the city.
Additionally, higher rates of literacy of youth populations – compared to adults – highlight potential
improvements in education access and quality across geographies. Differences between rural areas and the
capital, in particular, are likely driven by the availability of opportunities for urban residents.
TABLE 13: LITERACY LEVELS
Census (2008) LISGIS (2016)
Adults (15-64) Rural 42.2 49.2
Urban 71.2 78.5
Urban Montserrado/ Greater Monrovia 75.6 84.0
Youth (15-29) Rural 52 63.1
Urban 78.1 88.9
Urban Montserrado/ Greater Monrovia 81.2 91.3
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016)
Notes: While literacy levels in the Census were based on a question, literacy was identified in the HIES 2016 based on
whether individuals were able to (i) read or write English or any other language and (ii) read any part of a sentence they
were asked to read. Urban Montserrado was used to proxy the population of Greater Monrovia.
105. In addition to basic literacy, there has also been a steady increase in completed levels of education
in the city. Primary education completion rates have increased 4 percentage points amongst Monrovia’s youth
population (15-29), while a considerably greater improvements have been made to secondary completion rates
for the same population, which have increased by almost 14 percentage points. Despite improvements, one
in four adults still reports having not completed primary school in Greater Monrovia, a stark reminder of
educational and skill challenges that need to be overcome.
46
See World Bank, Geography of Growth, 2012, pp 58
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TABLE 14: THERE IS A MARKED INCREASE IN COMPLETED LEVELS OF EDUCATION
Census (2008) – Urban DHS (2013) – Urban HIES(2016) – Greater
Montserrado Montserrado Monrovia
Youth Adults Youth Adults Youth Adults
Less than primary complete 37.1 38.1 26.7 30.7 18.4 23.8
Primary completed 45.1 34.6 48.7 37.2 49.1 35.6
Secondary completed 17.1 24.0 23.3 28.3 30.9 35.4
University Completed 0.7 3.4 1.1 3.8 1.5 5.1
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016), Census (2008) and DHS (2013)
106. Part of the reason for poor primary school completion rates remain key deficiencies in the primary
school system which are primarily evidenced through (i) non-enrollment, and (ii) late starting. Lifetime non-
enrollment rates for children of school going age are extremely high with approximately 40.6 percent of
children of primary school age (7-12) having never enrolled in school. While non-enrollment rates do decline
with age, children in Greater Monrovia tend to start school late – around the age of 12-13 as evidenced in
Figure 40. One of the consequences of late starting is a low proportion of children that are “on-track”, that is,
children who are at the appropriate level of schooling for their age. 47 As evidenced by Figure 41, this
disproportionately affects children from households in the bottom quintiles compared to those at the top,
highlighting different educational trajectories across income categories.
FIGURE 40: PERCENT OF OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN BY AGE FIGURE 41: PERCENT OF ‘ON-TRACK’ CHILDREN BY WEALTH
(2015/2016) IN GREATER MONROVIA QUINTILE AND GRADE IN GREATER MONROVIA
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016)
107. Family and finances limit educational opportunities for children in Monrovia, and might hint at issues
related to late starts. As highlighted in Figure 42 Individuals over the age of 14 report financial reasons as one
of the key barriers to education. Additionally, parental restrictions are likely to be additional limitation on
47
Poorer children are also likely to repeat grades and drop out as evidence by lower “on -track” pupils in higher primary
school years
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schooling for younger Monrovians – with parents indicating that one of the reasons for late-starts is common
understanding that children between the age of 6-14 are too young to begin school.
FIGURE 42: MAIN SELF-REPORTED REASONS FOR NOT ATTENDING SCHOOL
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016)
108. While girls and boys of primary and secondary school age have relatively similar trajectories, the
overall educational accomplishments of men and women still diverge. On average lifetime non-enrollment
rates for girls and boys as well as enrollment rates for children of school going age follow similar paths.
However, when estimating the highest level of education completed, adult women are significantly less likely
to have completed primary school compared to adult men. Similar patterns exist for youths (15-29) albeit to a
lesser extent. However, at the highest level of education, the overall attainment rates for younger Monrovians
is similar indicating that while males are likely to drop out of secondary education later in life, females that
remain in the school system are likely to complete tertiary education.
FIGURE 43: LIFETIME ENROLLMENT AND ENROLLMENT RATES FIGURE 44: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY GENDER IN
BY GENDER FOR SCHOOL GOING CHILDREN GREATER MONROVIA
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016)
109. While the proportion of Monrovians in higher education is small, almost one in five adult Monrovians
report attending polytechnic, vocational or adult education classes as a means to make progress in their
careers. As of 2016, approximately 144,393 adults in Greater Monrovia report having attended a vocational
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course with 79 percent of attendees completing the course. Amongst these respondents, computer courses
and driving appear to the most common vocational courses along with hairdressing and tailoring. Job prospects
for those who did attend these courses, however, were mixed with only 48 percent of individuals who
completed the relevant course reporting successes in the job market. Moreover, the average time needed to
find a job after completing training was between 2-4 months.
FIGURE 45: PERCENT OF STUDENTS ENROLLING IN DIFFERENT POLYTECHNIC COURSES IN GREATER MONROVIA
Source: Staff calculations using HIES (2016)
110. The returns to tertiary education are high for Monrovia residents as well as those living in other
urban areas. While median weekly incomes are approximately LD$ 2700 for those in Greater Monrovia and
LD$ 2250 for those in other urban areas, each additional step in the education system increases the earning
potential substantially. The median weekly income for working individuals with no completed levels of
education were between LD$1500-LD$ 2000 per week, while those with a primary level of education earned
between LD$ 2020- LD$1875 in urban areas; those with secondary-level education LD$2700-2812; and finally,
those with tertiary-level education LD$5062-7875.48 For individuals of a similar age and gender, the median
income from employment is about 4 times higher for individuals with a university degree, compared to those
having completed secondary education. The very high returns to university-level education point to a shortage
of university graduates in Liberia as a whole, with employers willing to pay a very high premium for skills.
FIGURE 46: RETURNS TO EDUCATION OF FORMAL WAGE EARNERS
Highest level of education Median Weekly Wage (LD) – Greater Median weekly Wage (LD) –
completed Monrovia Other Urban areas
Less than primary complete 2000 1500
Primary completed 2025 1875
Secondary completed 2700 2812
University Completed 7875 5062
48
Differences in median income between education levels are statistically significant at the 1% level controlling for age,
gender and primary job category in a quantile regression
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3. Greater Monrovia’s Municipal Finance and Governance
Challenge and Opportunities
111. Greater Monrovia’s governance is complex, and unlike any other area of Liberia. It is governed not
through a single administrative unit but instead by a number of different – and often overlapping – institutions,
with service provision also divided both vertically and horizontally. Most of ‘Greater Monrovia’ is located in a
district in Montserrado County one of 15 administrative divisions. Administrative divisions are usually, in turn,
subdivided into a 90 second-level administrative “districts” and further subdivided into third-level
administrative divisions or “clans”.49 However, administratively, the District of Greater Monrovia is divided into
16 “zones”, instead of “clans”.
112. Furthermore, unlike other districts, Greater Monrovia does not have an organized district
administration, with most (but not all) of its lower-level local authorities directly supervised by the
Montserrado County Superintendent. The governance of Greater Monrovia District is further divided amongst
two city corporations -the Monrovia City Corporation (MCC) and the Paynesville City Corporation (PCC) - and
ten local authorities (nine townships and one borough). All existing local governments were created by specific
acts by the Government of Liberian, and thus the structure and responsibilities of each local government varies
greatly from one to the other. The Monrovia City Corporation is responsible for the administration of the city
of Monrovia and the Paynesville City Corporation is responsible for the administration of Paynesville.
113. The MCC also provides services to the townships and borough through Memorandums of
Understanding (MoUs), but has no zoning or enforcement jurisdiction in these areas. Different types of MoUs
have been prepared to operate across the nine townships, the borough of New Kru Town, and Paynesville City
Corporation (PCC).
BOX 5: EXAMPLE OF AN MOU BETWEEN THE TOWNSHIP OF WEST POINT WITH MCC
The agreement covers to “improve revenue collection” and “basic township services” (e.g., street cleaning
and sanitation, among other services), as well as to further develop its institutional capacity particularly in
local revenue mobilization and administration. On revenue collection, “MCC shall be the sole collecting
authority of the above revenue sources”. “From all revenue generated by MCC for municipal and
advertisement, West Point receives 20% of each and MCC 80%”. “The 20% is to be used for enhancement
of the developmental agenda and operational expenditures, to be declared on a quarterly basis”. On
services delivery, “West Point shall be responsible for brushing of roads, alleys, drainage cleaning,
demolitions, and transfer of debris to MCC’s disposal sites”. “MCC shall be responsible for issuance of
construction permits, public land lease and land use permits to businesses/residents in West Point.”
Source: Municipal finance study for Greater Monrovia (2020), based on author’s review of the agreement
between MCC and the township of West Point in Greater Monrovia.
49
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Administrative_divisions_of_Liberia
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3.1. Political and Administrative Authority is Highly Centralized
Having experienced years of conflict, Liberia’s political and administrative authority remains centrally controlled
by national government. The level of centralization has provided limited room for efficient allocation of fiscal
resources or opportunities for urban local governments to provide adequate and improved services.
114. Among Liberia’s urban local governments, the urban area of Greater Monrovia, which includes the
capital city of Monrovia, and its governance body, the Monrovia City Corporation (MCC) as well as Payneville,
governed by the Paynesville City Corporation, and nine additional townships and one borough are most
affected by this centralized system. In fact, Paynesville and Monrovia’s Mayors are still centrally appointed by
the national government, more specifically, 50 by the President of Liberia and the city council members are
elected by popular vote. This is in spite of the July 19, 1973, establishment of the City of Monrovia, which
replaced the Commonwealth District of Monrovia, and which also established for an elected Mayor and an
elected City Council consisting of 11 councilors.51
115. Decentralization is ongoing but incomplete. To devolve authority and service responsibility to local
government including counties and other subordinate administrative units, a draft Local Government Act (LGA)
was prepared by the Government of Liberia (GoL) in 2013. The preamble to the National Policy on
Decentralization and Local Governance (“Decentralization Policy”) specified the goals and directions of the
decentralization. As a result, since August 2018, county administrations have been assigned increasing
responsibilities such as to improve collection of Own Source Revenue (OSR), to plan and implement
development projects, to manage natural resources, etc. The decentralization initiative is progressing.
3.2. Despite centralization, the intergovernmental service delivery
relationship is convoluted, leading to inefficiencies in service delivery
116. In spite of the centralization, intergovernmental relations – especially for the delivery of services -
are convoluted. Greater Monrovia relies on multi-government institutional cooperation and coordination for
infrastructure, service delivery, governance, and financing. Several functions – including urban planning and
developmental control, drainage, sanitation and small public works – are joint with National Government
entities, most notably the Ministry of Public Works. As described above, the , MCC also serves the neighboring
urban areas of Greater Monrovia under Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) arrangement. MCC services
Greater Monrovia nine townships, and one borough (see Box 5)
117. The services/expenditure assignments provided by MCC, however, are limited compared to those
provided by other comparable cities internationally (see Box 6) and include:
• Solid Waste Management (SWM), including in the nine townships, one borough, as well as through
agreements with Community Based Enterprises (CBE);
50
The former mayor (Ms. Clara Doe-Myogo) served from 2014 to 2018, and the current Mayor (Mr. Jefferson Tamba Koijee) was
appointed in January 2018.
51
From Hernando report, May 2020. The City of Monrovia is created and replaced the Commonwealth District of Monrovia on July
19, 1973. This legislation is also established for an elected Mayor and a City Council consisting of 11 councilors.
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• Environmental Health & Public Safety; BOX 6: EXPENDITURE FUNCTIONS IN GOOD INTERNATIONAL PRACTICES
• Urban Planning, in coordination with • Construction and maintenance of local roads and streets
the Ministry of Public Works (MoPWs), • Drainage and flood control
• Sidewalks and public lighting (streets, squares, and other
• City Police (in the capacity of first public areas)
responder serving Greater Monrovia), • Solid-waste management
and • Water supply, sewers, and sewerage treatment
• Food safety, sanitation, and public markets
• Community Services (such as drainage,
• Public safety/police, fire protection, parks, playgrounds, and
sanitation and other small public works, sport facilities
in the capacity of first responder serving • Urban planning, upgrading of informal settlements, and
Greater Monrovia, some coordination gentrification
with MoPWs). • Public transportation, urban traffic management, and
pedestrian safety
• Technical assistance (TA) to the
• Environmental control and public health protection,
neighboring urban areas to strengthen • Social assistance services, shelters for the homeless, and
their institutional operating capacity. public housing
• Public health (disease prevention and vaccination)
FIGURE 47: GREATER MONROVIA GOVERNANCE AND SERVICE DELIVERY
3.3. Local Institutions are insufficiently resourced
118. Although Local Authorities – including the PCC and MCC – have limited functions compared to
international example, the City Councils finances remain inadequate in meeting its responsibilities. MCC can
only finance 37% of the city’s total expenditure (see Table 15). Consequently, the remaining 63% are granted
by the national government, Cheesmanburg Landfill and Urban Sanitation Project (CLUS), and other external
donor funding in FY 2019-2020.
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119. Since the majority of the already small BOX 7: MAIN FEATURES OF A GOOD LOCAL TAX
budget funds current expenditure, there is limited
resource to fund capital expenditure for the city’s • Tax base should be immobile, so local governments can
vary the tax rate without the taxable base moving
spatial development, economic growth, and service elsewhere.
delivery improvement. MCC’s OSR can only cover 49% • Tax yield should be adequate to meet local needs, be
of the current expenditure, which is mainly the O&M stable and predictable.
and government administration cost, with the • Tax base should not be easy to export to nonresidents.
remaining 51% has to be funded by the national • Tax base should be visible to ensure accountability.
government Most (74%) of the consolidated budget • Taxpayers should perceive the tax as fair.
• Tax should be easy to administer locally.
goes to current expenditure to fund MCC current
operations, (including 56% for compensation of MCC Source: Bird 2001.
employees) which left only 26% for capital
expenditure. The capital investment is far below other international cities of the size and importance as
Monrovia.
TABLE 15: MCC EXPENDITURES FINANCED BY OWN SOURCE REVENUE AND BY EXTERNAL SOURCES
MCC EXPENDITURES FINANCED BY OWN SOURCE REVENUE AND BY EXTERNAL SOURCES
FY 2019 -2020 FY2019-2020 FY2019-2020
OBJECT OF EXPENDITURES GOL Projection % of MCC Projection % of % of Grand Consulidated % of Consulidated
(USD) Consulidated (USD) Consulidated Total (USD) Grand Total
Compensation of Employees 1,652,227 56% 1,300,589 44% 67% 2,952,816 56%
Use of Goods and Services 333,359 37% 594,535 65% 31% 912,894 17%
Consumption of Fixed Capital - 40,000 73% 2% 55,000 1%
Subtotal (i) 1,985,586 51% 1,935,124 49% 100% 3,920,710 74%
Non-Financial Assets by funding
source
Other Fixed Assets - - -
Clean City Project 600,000 100% - 600,000 11%
Cheesemanburg Landfill & Urban
Sanitation ( CLUS ) Project/Solid 750,000 - 750,000 14%
Waste Management
Subtotal (ii) (GOL and Donor) 1,350,000 100% - 1,350,000 26%
Grand Total 3,335,586 63% 1,935,124 37% 100% 5,270,710 100%
Source: MCC Expenditure Budget Data FY 2019-20 & authors' calculation
120. Unfortunately, MCC has very limited own tax sources, comparing to other international cities, even
comparing to low-income countries; thus improving OSR is difficult. The MCC OSR comes from seven types of
revenue classifications including both tax and non-tax items. The two major sources which accounted over 80%
of MCC’s OSR are “local taxes” (business taxes and advertisement tax), which accounts for 65.7% of the total
OSR, and “rents”, which accounts for 16% of the total OSR, as shown in table 19 below.
121. This situation is even more critical considering that the collection authority of property tax is
currently under the Ministry of Finance Liberian Revenue Authority (LRA) although it also appears as a
function under MCC’s Ordinance 8. Within this arrangement the national government is supposed to transfer
back 30% of the tax proceeds to MCC, but since the property tax collection rate has been extremely poor,
revenue sharing has been realized. This lack of collection effort has been a detriment to the fiscal capacity of
the city. As a result, MCC relies on two local taxes only: the “business tax” (“municipal tax”) and the
“advertisement tax”, together with rents from municipal property as the main non-tax revenue source (see
tables below).
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122. To capitalize on its limited OSR to ensure the long term service delivery MCC needs to optimize
revenue collection efforts from the two main taxes and non-tax sources and ensuring efficient expenditure. In
additional, national government could also focus on improved property tax collection – and subsequent sharing
with the MCC. In the longer term, the city could benefit from expanding the tax base to include additional
potential sources (see Table 16 and Box 7).
TABLE 16: MCC OWN SOURCE REVENUE
LOCAL REVENUE SOURCES
IN GOOD INTERNATIONAL PRACTICES AND IN MCC
Good International Practices Monrovia (Liberia)
Taxes Taxes
1. Property Tax (real estate) 1. Propoerty Tax (Real Estate) 30%
2. Advertisement Tax 2. Advertisement Tax
3. Business Tax 3. Business License/Tax
4. Excise Tax on Goods & Services
5. Land Value Capture Taxes Non-Taxes
6. Motor Vehicles Tax 1. Solid Waste Collection Fee
7. Real Estate Transfer Tax 2. Construction Permits
8. Stamp Duties 3. Fines/Penalties
9. Income Tax 4. Other (Lottery Taxes & Fees)
Source: Municipal Finance Handbook (2014) and MCC's Budget Report 2018-2019
TABLE 17: MCC OSR STRUCTURE
MONROVIA's OWN SOURCE REVENUE STRUCTURE
Fiscal Year: July 1st 2018 - June 30th 2019
OWN REVENUE SOURCES US$* %
1 Taxes 1,168,944 65.7
2 Rents 284,529 16.0
3 Permits 169,018 9.5
4 Fees 55,080 3.1
5 Licenses 10,900 0.6
6 Fines/Penalties 6,672 0.4
7 Others (Contingent Revenue) 83,632 4.7
TOTAL 1,778,775 100
* These revenues refer to FY approved projections
Source: Elaborated for this Report based on the "Budget Brief".
123. Compounding the poor OSR, the size of the transfer of funds to MCC from the central government is
not always clear. The transfer allocation that finances the sustainability of the urban service delivery to
Monrovia’s 1.5 million people is subject to annual negotiations between MCC and the national government
(through MFDP), as well as the approval of the national budget by the Liberian Legislature. The MCC’s service
delivery under MOU with other Greater Monrovia Local Governments is also under risk of financial
sustainability, since it is subject to similar negotiations.
124. In addition to actions to improve OSR, MCC’s multi-year urban investment and service improvement
planning requires improvements given the lack of reliable financing resources to support the planning and
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the criteria for national government budget transfers and capital investment project should be clearly
defined. Such subsidies could be linked with MCC’s performance in service delivery, own-source revenue
collection, effective implementation of development projects and transparent budget reporting. Capacity
building can also be provided to ensure that the MCC reaches set performance targets.
3.4. Accountability and Transparency in Financial Management and
Reporting
125. MCC’s financing management, accounting, and reporting could be supported to address
accountability and transparency. MCC’s yearly budget document primarily refers to the revenue projections
for the incoming fiscal year and the distribution of the projected total revenue across the ma in expenditures’
categories. Under current practice, the annual budget document does not report the budget balances for either
the operating or the capital budget in the previous fiscal year. Therefore, it is unknown whether yearly
operations in the current and capital budget, and in the consolidated budget, ended up with budget surpluses
or deficits. By international standards, these financial balances are among the most basic performance
indicators in financial management. Their availability, or lack thereof, are also internationally recognized as
indicators of financial transparency, accountability, and good governance.
126. The budget reporting system also requires revision to differentiates between current expenditures
(i.e., general administration, and O&M on each municipal service), and capital investments on specific urban
services to guide expenditure policy, and measure performance in expenditure efficiency. Accounting and
budget reporting currently follow the old traditional classifications by line items (i.e., inputs only). This means
MCC does not report municipal expenditures by services/functions (i.e., expenditure programs by
service/output). Furthermore, under the current system the expenditures in general administration, as a
function, are unknown. Without the classification of current expenditures into general administration and
municipal services (O&M) it is very difficult to guide expenditure policy, show results on the ground, set
baselines, and measure performance in expenditure efficiency on different services/functions.
127. Finally, current accounting of revenues could be revised to systematically compute indicators on
revenue collection efficiency ratios. These ratios would be very helpful for the revenue administration to set
priorities in terms of where the revenue collection effort should focus. Based on the small revenue from
penalties, it appears that revenue enforcement is fairly weak. Finally, and not least important, currently
revenue administration, billing, collection, and enforcement are handled manually for most revenue sources.
International experience shows the multiple benefits of automation. The priorities should be business taxes,
advertisement tax, and rents.
3.5. Summary
128. Unfinished decentralization, unclear and overlapping mandates – nationally and within Greater
Monrovia - coupled with significant underfunding of capital investments and local financing significantly
hinder Greater Monrovia’s potential to further contribute to Liberia’s economic transformation. 52 Most
urban services like power, water, urban transport, health and education fall under the purview of under-
52
The devolution of certain administrative, fiscal and political powers and institutions from the national government to
local governments is still underway (Local Government Act 2015). Monrovia City Council, as municipal authority, is only
responsible for solid waste management and is allocated funds in the national budget for that service alone along with
salaries subsidy. MCC has municipal revenue sharing arrangements with some adjoining Local Government Areas (LGAs).
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resourced and weak central government utilities. Others – including urban planning, stormwater drainage
and roads – are provided in conjunction with central government agencies – with concomitant fractious
overlapping mandates. Services that are mandated for local provision – including solid waste management –
are provided at varying levels by the Monrovia City Council (MCC) through byzantine service agreements
(Memorandum of Understanding) with the 9 townships and 1 borough that make up Greater Monrovia. The
MCCs Own Source Revenues barely cover its operations – while all capital investments are either financed
externally or through the national government.
129. Greater Monrovia – and the MCC, PCC and other entities - needs a model of inter-jurisdictional
governance to improve promote service delivery. The MCC and PCC as institutional leaders of the Greater
Monrovia, it should consider advocating for a broader assignment of local expenditure functions, supported by
new tax revenue sources, to operate under a model of metropolitan governance characterized by clear
transparency and strong accountability. To enhance this transparency, MCC should consider reporting both
planned and executed expenditures (de-jure and de-facto) in each jurisdiction covered by an MoU in order to
also enhance accountability, as part of good governance.
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4. Recommendations
130. The Government of Liberia’s stated vision, formulated in Liberia Rising 2030, aims at reaching middle
income status by 2030. Drafted in 2012, it laid out a strategy for economic transformation under the first phase
(2012-2017), followed by the Pro-Poor Agenda For Prosperity And Development (PAPD) outlined by Liberia’s
current administration for the period 2018 to 2023.
131. Fixing Greater Monrovia is key and central to achieving sustained and shared economic growth for
Liberia. Even though energy supply and access, connectivity, educational attainment and economic
opportunities are far better in Greater Monrovia than in any other urban area, more needs to be done to unlock
Greater Monrovia potential agglomeration benefits that would help not only residents of the capital area, but
also Liberians across the country and in rural areas to reach greater prosperity. To achieve this addressing the
constraints outlined in Chapter 3, and are reformulated below in the context of an agenda for Greater
Monrovia.
4.1. Matching roles and responsibilities more effectively across Greater
Monrovia’s institutional landscape
132. Greater Monrovia needs a model of governance that addresses the region as a single entity to start
to address the geographic administrative fragmentation that currently plagues the area. This would allow for
integrated planning for future development, management of current development, to ensure that efficiencies
of agglomeration are captured.
133. Such a model begins with a local government entity that has jurisdiction over the entire area and an
elected Mayor – as envisaged by the 1973 Legislation that established the MCC – to ensure accountability to
residents. But such a government entity also has to be equipped with the relevant expenditure and
concomitant revenue assignments to ensure effective management. This, however, is a medium-term solution
that should be an integral part of the decentralization discussion currently underway in Liberia.
134. In the short term, the MCC and PCC, building on the current City Development Strategy (currently
underway with assistance from Cities Alliance), should consider jointly developing a spatial plan that provides
clear direction for growth, while recognizing Greater Monrovia’s disaster and climate risks, with associated
city-wide investments, and jointly advocate for its financing to appropriate national government entities as
well s Donor agencies. Such an approach could ensure coherent development in Greater Monrovia – in the
absence of a single management entity.
135. In the short term, MCC and PCC could consider the following institutional improvements for
improved transparency and accountability – and in the absence of elected officials:
a. Applying international standard in accounting and reporting is suggested to enhance the
financial transparency. Consideration should be given to the implementation of an accounting
and budget reporting system that differentiates between: (i) current expenditures (i.e., general
administration, and O&M of main municipal services); and (ii) capital investments in specific
urban services. This classification would enhance financial transparency and, thereby,
accountability.
b. Ensure consistent reporting – to Council Members, levels of government and to the public – on
use of local funds. Note that this could include reporting both planned and executed
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expenditures (de-jure and de-facto) in each jurisdiction covered by an MoU in order to also
enhance accountability, as part of good governance;
c. Include performance indicators for budgets. These include: (a) execution efficiency ratio of
every expenditure category (including both current and capital expenditures); (b) the
collection efficiency ratio for every revenue source; and (c) the balances in the operating and
capital budgets as well as the balance in the consolidated budget;
d. MCC should consider producing quarterly and annual reports on revenues collected in each
jurisdiction in partnership with local authorities, as well as on the specific investments in urban
development in those jurisdictions. For this purpose, and as part of comprehensive financial
reporting, a budget for capital expenditures in urban development should be adopted,
including all internal and external revenue sources. This would facilitate the implementation
of a multi-year urban investment planning system.
e. Provide One stop Shops and other outreach facilities for business and community to ensure
improved services to residents.
136. In addition, and even prior to the conclusion of the decentralization discussion, the MCC and PCC as
institutional leaders of the Greater Monrovia – and especially considering the MCCs role in delivering certain
services in Greater Monrovia could also advocate for:
a. clarity in the management (and subsequent revenue assignment) of key functions/mandates
currently under contention including urban planning and small works;
b. improved property tax collection and subsequent sharing of this shared tax (see 4.2 for a further
discussion on this issue); improve revenue collection – with an initial focus on improved
consistency in billing and collection of existing revenue sources;
c. clear and transparent rules on project funding, and transfers from the national government.
4.2. Generating fiscal space for urban interventions
137. The limited fiscal space available to the Government of Liberia – central and local – constraints its
efforts to advance on its strategy Liberia Rising 2030. Governments have essential three instruments at their
disposal to increase their fiscal space: saving, external borrowing or increasing taxes. Saving could be achieved
by spending more efficiently or by cutting activities and subsidies with low financial or social value. Commercial
or concessional lending may be an option for activities where economic returns are sufficiently high to secure
the payback of loans, but about 80 percent of Liberia’s public investments are already financed through
external sources53. Increasing taxes needs to be weighed against their distributional impacts and how efficiently
they can be administered. While a recent public expenditure review54 nicely laid out various options for Liberia
to increase its fiscal space, the recommendations here – while overlapping in part with that assessment – will
be limited to the scope of issues identified in previous chapters.
53
IMF (2016), Liberia Technical Assistance Report––Public Investment Management Assessment, IMF Country Report
No. 16/352, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC
54
WB (2013), Liberia Public Expenditure Review Options for Fiscal Space Enlargement, The World Bank Group,
Washington DC
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138. The Liberia Electricity Corporation (LEC) and the Liberia Water and Sewer Corporation (LWSC) receive
sizeable fiscal transfers – without a clear economic or financial rationale – that could be spent elsewhere. As
discussed in section 3.4, electricity and piped water services remain limited and are almost exclusively available
to only non-poor households. This makes the public subsidy going to these SOEs highly regressive and without
clear rationale. In 2011/12, the fiscal transfers amounted to USD 3.4 for LEC and USD 1.2 million for LWSC55 --
finance that could be spent elsewhere more effectively and with more inclusive benefits. Both sectors are in
urgent need of reforms56 to expand access beyond the wealthy and operate efficiently to ensure tariffs are in
line with international standards and to eliminate the need of blanket government subsidies.
139. Empty and unused buildings could generate financial revenue to Government. There are several
Government owned buildings that are left empty, because they are in need of repair. A quick back of the
envelop computation, using existing advertised rentals, could generate a revenue of several hundred thousand
USD per month, which would be a discounted rental in exchange for repair (see Annex 5). Discounted rentals
in exchange for making the buildings inhabitable again could be explored by Government, if finance for major
repairs is not available or budgeted.
140. Limited real estate tax collection – only 0.17 percent of GDP was collected in 2011 for entire Liberia57
– is not only a missed opportunity for generating revenue for urban investments, but also for regulating
urban development. Real estate tax collection, as opposed to other taxes related to property transfer, is
limited to Monrovia and few other major urban jurisdictions58. Of course and as outlined below, various steps
need to be taken that require less financial but political capital to institute a property tax system geared
towards collecting real estate taxes. However, once it does, it could leverage finance that could be used to
finance many of the infrastructure constraints for Greater Monrovia.
4.3. Completing Property and Land Registration for Greater Monrovia
141. The establishment of a transparent and trustworthy land and property registration system is vital
and the very first step in addressing the difficult political economy around land. Even though the Government
of Liberia took already unprecedented steps to tackle land issues – by creating in 2009 Liberia’s Land
Commission, adopting a Land Rights Policy in 2012, passing the Liberia Land Authority Act in 2016 and passing
the Liberia Land Rights Act in 2018 – only 5,000 properties, at most 30 percent, were registered for the entire
Montserrado County in 2012 59 , with an unknown number of registrations today. Likewise, there is no
comprehensive digital information on the number and values of land and property transactions, which make
their valuations for taxation purposes difficult and arbitrary.
142. Harness the benefits of the digital economy to advance land and property registration efforts.
Remote sensing platforms (satellites, aircrafts, drones) offer massive opportunities to carry out land
registration at lower cost and in a more transparent manner by establishing digital audit trails. Given limited
capacity within the public sector, the working model in most SSA countries is to allow surveying, valuation and
55
Ibid.
56
See for example, Kiazolu, M. O. (2015) Governing Liberia’s Electricity Sector Reforms: Challenges and
Recommendations. Governance in Africa, 2(1): 1, pp. 1-8.
57
Franzsen R. and S. Jibao (2017), “Liberia” in R. Franzsen and W. McCluskey (ed.), Property Tax in Africa: Status,
Challenges, and Prospects, The Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, Cambridge Massachusetts
58
Ibid.
59
Ibid.
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land use planning to be carried out by private sector professionals, with the government only responsible for
approval60.
143. Registration of land and property in Central and Greater Monrovia has high revenue potential. Under
the ongoing Land Administration Project financed by the World Bank digitization of manual deed records are
supported and existing drone maps could help pilot cadastral index map that would link deeds to spatial parcel
units, thus setting the ground for the establishment of a complete and multi-purpose cadaster for Greater
Monrovia. Greater Monrovia seems an obvious choice, since already it forms the basis of current real estate
collection effort. Moreover, Greater Monrovia benefited far more from public infrastructure investments than
any other area in Liberia, and that effort needs to double and triple with the financial contributions of its
residents (through real estate taxation), if economic growth is to be increased in the capital area.
144. Adopt a simple area-based flat tax on land by zone first. In the absence of market data, a simplified
approach to real estate taxation could be explored and may be preferable to the current value based approach,
since market values are difficult to discern and generate dissent when perceived to be measured arbitrarily.
Once land parcels are measured and registered, a fee per square meter of land could be levied and varied by
zone to reflect the higher value of land in certain areas, especially downtown. Moreover, current distinctions
between urban farm land, urban land, underdeveloped lots, land occupied by residential or commercial
buildings would be unnecessary, except for penalizing underutilization of land as a regulatory tool to foster
better land use and reduce land speculation. An example of different land tax scenarios are outlined in Annex
5 for Central Monrovia and the extended area of Central Monrovia.
TABLE 18: FORMER AND CURRENT TAX RATES FOR LAND AND BUILDINGS IN LIBERIA
Franzsen and Jibao (2017)
145. Reconsider the application of a house/property tax for a later, more advanced system of real estate
taxation. 77 percent of the buildings assessed by drones in Central Monrovia, as outlined in section 3.5, consist
of one floor, built out of material that would scarcely support another. At this stage of urban development in
Greater Monrovia – with very little economic density – building well and higher would better be encouraged
rather than taxed.
60
A forthcoming study by the WB Africa chief economist unit will elaborate in more detail scalable solutions for land
registration and administration using digital technologies.
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4.4. Planning and Regulation in support of Greater Monrovia’s territorial
development
146. Urban master planning including land use and the planning and coordination of infrastructure need
to be strategic, pragmatic and inclusive of all sectors that fall within the territory of Greater Monrovia and
implemented by a high level coordination unit. Given the importance of the capital region for economic
growth of the country and as suggested already under 5.1, the delegation to a high level coordination unit with
capacity to plan and regulate connective infrastructure across the territory of the agglomeration will be
necessary. Such entity could be the focal point and management unit for all investments made in Greater
Monrovia and would need to be hold accountable through the formulation of a business plan with specific
tasks and milestones.
147. Coordination of infrastructure and regulation of land use through a binding Master Plan. One of such
tasks is the preparation and implementation of a binding Master Plan. It could built on the Master Plan financed
by JICA in 200961 – that while comprehensive and covering many aspects needed for urban planning, needs
updating – and other analytical work. Such plan needs to be understood as a process, during which support
from critical stakeholders shall be garnered to agree on prioritization of activities, implementation
arrangements and binding rules. It would entail the nurturing of a common understanding on the climate
change risks that will continue to exacerbate flooding in parts of Greater Monrovia; it would regulate land use
in areas at risk; it would ensure the extension of network infrastructure (water, sewage, electricity, internet
cables) would be coordinated with road improvements so newly paved roads can be longer preserved; and –
through participative planning – would generate a vision of the location of the city’s main functions (markets,
manufacturing and light industry, future waste disposal sites, etc.).
148. The importance of planning tools and enforcement to prevent loss of lives and white elephant
investments cannot be sufficiently underscored. The territory of Greater Monrovia is particularly vulnerable
to climate change as its long coastal line is exposed to threats from sea level rise and its inner shores bordering
the Mesurado river are at risk of submersion and flooding. Hundred thousands of people currently reside along
the shoreline on informal and often reclaimed land that may be submerged within the next decade. Where
should they go? Today’s planning needs to meet the criteria for the next 50 to 100 years, especially in an
environment where the capacity to invest in lasting infrastructure is extremely limited.
149. Economic and incentive regulation and crowding in private investors. An important function of the
‘managers’ of Greater Monrovia is also to act on the constraints reported by businesses and improve the
business environment for future investors. This could range from specific vocational training camps to build
skills in need for certain professions to reducing the overall cost of the business environment to make wages
more competitive. In addition, Liberia’s current model of concessions needs to deliver better in terms of
transparency on their revenues and spending, the use of local supply chains including labor, and with respect
to the value addition made to these products before they are exported. A recent report by the World Bank62
outlines comprehensively the various options Liberia could take on enhancing its product diversification,
including the establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs), so related recommendations should be drawn
from that detailed analysis.
61
Liberia Ministry of Public Works (2009)
62
WB (2019b)
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4.5. Making Monrovia cleaner, better connected, more livable, affordable
and safer
150. The Government of Liberia needs to consider direction of growth given the city’s propensity to flood.
Such growth is already taking place in the direction of Paynesville, but also towards the Northern periphery of
Greater Monrovia’s administrative boundaries, and investments are likely to continue in those directions.
151. With population densities much lower in the periphery, such deflection of urban growth could be an
opportunity to address pervasive constraints to affordable formal housing development . Land is less
expensive in the periphery of Greater Monrovia today, and building formal housing with access to formal
infrastructure could save significant finance in the future, when such investments become critical and
population densities have risen. This could be done through PPPs with private developers, or in the form of
lower cost sites and service projects, in which formal infrastructure – roads, electricity, piped water, communal
septic tanks or other – could be built with contributions63 by the owners of land.
152. However, generating affordable housing in the periphery of Greater Monrovia will stand or fail with
affordable connective transport options that need to be established. The dependency on employment –
formal or informal – in the downtown area of Greater Monrovia will necessitate investments into affordable
and fast transportation modes between Greater Monrovia’s periphery and its businesses in Central Monrovia.
The congestion generated by the vibrant markets – Duala and Redlight – needs particular attention, since many
of the informal jobs are connected to these markets and delivery comes from various parts of Montserrado
and its neighboring counties.
153. With so much network infrastructure investments required in Greater Monrovia – paved roads,
drainage, electricity, water, sewage – the Government of Liberia needs to consider how to crowd-in private
finance through innovative schemes – such as around land value capture. For example, there is a potential
for private capital mobilization through prime real estate or land, where government would leverage its real
estate assets to invite private service providers to deliver multiple economic and social services to its citizens.
An initial identification and mapping of public assets (land and buildings) has been completed, showing that
about 18 percent of Central Monrovia’s building footprint or land belongs to Government. Land value capture
schemes can also leverage infrastructure service improvements in certain neighborhoods against agreed future
real estate tax.
154. However, since these long term investments will require planning and land markets to function, they
should not mask the urgent and immediate requirements to improve urban services in informal settlements.
Already can one see that informal areas are over proportionally at risks from diseases such as COVID19 and
years ago it was Ebola. Given climate uncertainty and these areas being particularly at risk of submersion,
alternative infrastructure and service provision models are needed in lieu of sinking capital-intensive network
infrastructure to reach these settlements. Such models makes a case for an urban upgrading approach that
also focus on ‘off grid’ infrastructure that could be located in such areas. Such ‘off grid’ h models could include
investments in water kiosks, mini-grids which could be solar powered, small waste water treatment plants,
community public toilets and other non-network service solutions.
155. Greater Monrovia has already experience and capacity with such innovative infrastructure and
service delivery models that could be leveraged in the interest of addressing immediate concerns of the large
63
Could be land, like in land pooling projects, cash or future taxation as in land value capture.
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community of slum dwellers. Management of such innovative service delivery interventions could occur
through community based and social enterprises, based on existing practices in Monrovia. CBEs already exist
in Monrovia, specifically in Waste Management, but also sanitation, and, it could be argued that nascent
enterprises also exist in the management of the water kiosks of LWSC. In fact, the Federation of Liberia Urban
Poor Savers (FOLUPS), together with Donor financing has already provided small grants and loans to individual
enterprises and CBE for equipment for waste collection. Furthermore, there is significant interest by social
enterprises in investing in Monrovia64. Such interventions are viable in Monrovia – based on a Market Sounding
exercise which generated interest from 230 interested SE. Of these, 50 were short listed for deeper interviews
to determine suitability and readiness, and from those 17 – including those focused on water provision and
solar power - were selected as having the strongest replication potential. Impact investors who have been
contacted have also expressed interest in such investments.
156. Finally, Monrovia’s economic spaces require significant rehabilitation – including its markets – and
its commercial nodes. For commercial nodes, investments in public land/buildings could occur based on its
potential for private capital mobilization to maximize land value capture.
157. At the same time, investments in Monrovia’s markets, can also support the informal economy,
urban/rural linkages and reduce food loss. The Markets in Greater Monrovia constitute important linkages
between rural farmers and urban consumers. However, inadequate infrastructure, including deficient
drainage, poor sanitation and water facilities, and inadequate waste management make these food markets
unhygienic and risky for the health of vendors, visitors and surrounding communes. Additionally, their poor
management is estimated to reduced daily profits of vendors by approximately 8%, poor market management
which reduced revenues collected by between 3-7 times. Interventions that could be supported could include
improved market infrastructure (e.g. toilet facilities, water points, improved drainage) that could be
implemented using labor based approaches; investments in cold storage and other storage facilities that could
improve profits and productivity of the nascent micro enterprises; and improved market managements and
organization that could contribute to local revenues.
TABLE 19: A SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS AND A TENTATIVE TIME HORIZON
Matching roles and responsibilities effectively across Greater Monrovia’s
institutional landscape
Manage Greater Monrovia as a single entity: Long Term (through
- Provide a model of governance that considers the regions development within a ongoing Decentralization
single entity, together with concomitant Revenues and Expenditure Process)
assignments
- Ensure coordinated development via a Strategy and Plan for the area Short Term
Work with MCC and PCC to improve accountability, and transparency through:
- Support improvements in the municipal accounting system, and subsequent Short Term
reporting
- Provide One stop Shops and other outreach facilities for business and Medium Term
community to ensure improved services to residents;
Encourage MCC and PCC as institutional leaders to advocate for: Medium Term
64
Social Enterprises deliver goods and services to customers, hire or source suppliers from marginalized communities,
generate profits to service social causes through cross subsidization, protect the environment and function as enablers
by facilitating other social enterprises.
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- clarity in the management (and subsequent revenue assignments) of key
functions/mandates currently under contention including urban planning & small
works;
- improved property tax collection and subsequent sharing of this shared tax;
- clear and transparent rules on project funding, and transfers from national
government.
Generating fiscal space for urban interventions
Rationalize fiscal transfers especially to the Liberia Electricity Corporation (LEC) and the Short to Medium Term
Liberia Water and Sewer Corporation (LWSC) which receive sizeable fiscal transfers –
without a clear economic or financial rationale – and which are regressive.
Generate revenue by leasing out Government owned empty buildings at discounted Short Term
rates and in exchange for these buildings being repaired.
Improve and simplify Real Estate and Property Tax collection which, since only 0.17 Medium to Long Term
percent of GDP was collected in 2011 for entire Liberia, is not only a missed opportunity
for generating revenue for urban investments, but also for regulating urban
development. Different scenarios for only focusing on an area based land tax could yield
a million USD per year from Central Monrovia land taxation only.
Work with MCC and PCC to improve revenue collection – with an initial focus on improved Short Term
consistency in billing and collection of existing revenue sources.
Complete Property and Land Registration for Greater Monrovia
Establish a transparent and trustworthy land and property registration system and Medium to Long Term
harness the benefits of the digital economy to advance land and property registration
efforts
Pilot a cadaster index map linking existing drone imagery with deeds Short Term
Adopt a simple area-based flat tax on land by zone first Medium Term
Planning and Regulation in support of Greater Monrovia’s territorial development
Clarify Roles and Responsibilities around Planning Medium Term
Develop a consensual plan, which outlines direction of growth Short to Medium Term
Develop and use appropriate planning tools Medium Term
Making Monrovia cleaner, better connected, more livable, affordable and safer
Consider long term direction of growth in Greater Monrovia, taking into account existing Medium to Long Term
patterns of growth (currently towards Paynesville and north) and future climate risks
which constrain the viability of investments
Use growth in peripheral areas to address pervasive constraints to housing development Medium Term
Ensure connective infrastructure between core and periphery of the city Medium Term
Use land value capture to ‘crowd in’ private sector investment that could then be used Medium Term
for infrastructure financing
Invest in ‘off grid’ infrastructure in disaster prone informal neighborhoods, to ensure Short Term
delivery of basic services while also ensuring viability of investments
Invest in innovative service delivery models in underserved areas particularly using: Short Term
- Community Based Enterprises
- Social Enterprises
Rehabilitate Greater Monrovia’s markets including:
- Cold storage for improved productivity
- Water, sanitation and drainage for improved health outcomes
Resolve Market Management issues between LMA and MCC/PCC
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5. Conclusion
158. Liberia has gone through a difficult past – decades of conflict and an Ebola crisis – and there are new
challenges ahead, posed both by COVID19 and lower commodity prices, on which much of Liberia’s revenue
depends. Years of conflict have left much of Liberia’s once thriving infrastructure in tatters, the Ebola crises hit
the economy hard, just when it managed to get back on its feet; worse than destroyed infrastructure or a
depressed economy, these experiences have left scars among its population that are harder to heal. However,
the healing will be necessary to maintain peace and stability, and what government can offer is to foster trust
through its institutions, better services and better jobs for this and the next generation in waiting.
159. The Government of Liberia’s own strategy – Liberia Rising 2030 – has been developed much in that
spirit in 2012 and is as valid today as it was then. The financing of the ambitious Agenda of Transformation
that should propel Liberia into a middle income country by 2030 has taken hits from Ebola and commodity
crises, but the agenda is reinvigorated by the Pro-Poor Agenda For Prosperity And Development that marked
the second phase under this strategy. This report has highlighted the various constraints to improving Greater
Monrovia’s prospects to accelerate economic growth and job creation. The focus on Greater Monrovia is
needed, since without it, Liberia will not be able to reach middle income status, simply by exporting its raw
materials to the world.
160. Greater Monrovia is well suited within Liberia to provide value additions to Liberia’s abundant raw
materials. It has better access to electricity, water, and educated workers than any other area in Liberia, and
it is close to the port. Service access and quality is far from good, but they can be improved and given existing
population densities, improving service provision benefits from economies of scale, i.e. it will always be less
costly to serve an urban household with grid electricity than a remote rural one.
161. However, Greater Monrovia needs to address many of its challenges urgently and before the cost of
tackling them later may overwhelm. Because of lack of affordable formal housing, people choose informal
settlements to be near jobs and to rely on the only means of transport affordable to them: walking. Such
decisions could differ, if better and affordable transport connectivity could be assured for poorer households
to reach their jobs. Likewise, climate change is real and it will affect Greater Monrovia’s economy and residents,
so steps to prepare for worse frequencies of flooding and increased sea level rise need to be made.
162. Importantly, some of the recommendations laid out in this report require significant financial capital;
yet, the most important decisions require political will and a participatory process to generate support.
Enhancing transparency by publishing government revenues and spending is not costly, but takes political will.
Land – ownership, transactions, and its taxation – are in a similar category, and will be contested by those that
may gain from obscurity. Land registration is probably the most important activity the government can embark
on without significant financial cost. It has the potential to unlock the development challenges constraining
Greater Monrovia.
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ASA
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for contagion risk analysis
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and Japan-WB DRM mainstreaming trust fund (US $14,000)
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contract with Earth Observation for Sustainable Development of ESA
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Annex 1: Liberia’s Structural and Aspirational Peers
Structural peers: Central African Republic, Gambia, Sierra Leone, Togo
Aspirational peers: Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea-Bisau, Malawi, Sierra Leone
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Annex 2: Wage Premium Regression Analysis
Log nominal weekly wages (LRD) Log real weekly wages (LRD)
Omitted
Variable Variables (1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
Omitted: Other Urban 0.272*** 0.103* 0.126** 0.252*** 0.0866 0.111**
Rural Greater Monrovia 0.515*** 0.226*** 0.196*** 0.473*** 0.188*** 0.161***
Primary incomplete 0.0629 0.0787 0.0578 0.0752
Omitted:
Primary complete 0.107* 0.113 0.0919 0.101
No
Education Secondary complete 0.450*** 0.537*** 0.440*** 0.532***
Tertiary 0.962*** 1.048*** 0.945*** 1.037***
Mining/quarrying 0.486*** 0.478***
Manufacturing 0.308 0.304
Utilities 0.0622 0.0341
Construction 0.329*** 0.326***
Retail and trade -0.151 -0.160
Transport, storage, comm. 0.156 0.156*
Hotel and restaurants -0.205 -0.212
Financial services 0.763*** 0.758***
Omitted:
Agriculture Public admin & defense 0.319*** 0.301***
Business services & real
estate 0.0574 0.0506
Education -0.296** -0.310**
Health & social work 0.162 0.155
Arts, entertainment &
recreation 0.246 0.262
Activities of HH as
employers -0.0165 -0.0336
Other -0.443 -0.465
Omitted:
Male Female -0.257*** -0.219*** -0.120 -0.263*** -0.227*** -0.127*
Age 0.0849*** 0.0663*** 0.0642*** 0.0842*** 0.0654*** 0.0636***
Age Squared -0.0009*** -0.0007*** -0.0006*** -0.0009*** -0.0006*** -0.0006***
Polygamous married 0.0340 0.0805 0.0970 0.0379 0.0844 0.1000
Omitted: Living together -0.172** -0.111 -0.138* -0.187** -0.126 -0.154**
Mono- Separated -0.220** -0.126 -0.0859 -0.223** -0.129 -0.0907
gamously Divorced -0.768*** -0.696** -0.621** -0.755*** -0.686** -0.610**
Married
Never married -0.166* -0.117 -0.0988 -0.175* -0.125 -0.108
Widow(er) -0.445* -0.336 -0.286 -0.445* -0.338 -0.284
Log of Hours worked 0.549*** 0.396** 0.433** 0.553*** 0.402** 0.439**
Log of Hours worked
Squared -0.0615** -0.0327 -0.0449 -0.0635** -0.0350 -0.0475
Constant 4.632*** 4.982*** 4.904*** 4.715*** 5.075*** 4.993***
Observations 3,150 3,129 3,029 3,150 3,129 3,029
R-squared 0.135 0.207 0.252 0.128 0.199 0.246
Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
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Annex 3: Hedonic Regression Analysis
Log of reported rental values
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
(baseline) - (Location (Location
Omitted Variable Variables all controls - controls - Self
All flood Reported
Risks) Flood risk
interaction)
No of rooms in the dwelling 0.160*** 0.163*** 0.161***
Temporary Construction (mud Reinforced construction 0.438*** 0.423*** 0.428***
bricks, zinc, Blocks, poles,/
reeds/ bamboo) Load-bearing construction 0.197 0.196 0.205
Low cost construction -0.197 -0.272 -0.256
Thatch, plastic sheets, tin Cement, tiles 0.331 0.298 0.320
Earth/ mud/ wood planks Cement, tile, Stone 0.242 0.251* 0.249
Water vendor/ push push cart Pipe or pump indoorss 0.447 0.438* 0.377
Pipe or pump outdoors 0.151 0.202 0.175
Public standpipe 0.277 0.327 0.301
Borehole/ tubewell -0.00131 -0.0524 -0.0898
Closed well 0.0856 0.0100 -0.0291
Open well 0.214 0.129 0.102
Rainwater 0.0690 0.0409 -0.00174
No waste collection (Abandon) Collected by govt/ private firm 0.0118 0.0400 0.0379
Govt bin 0.179* 0.214** 0.217**
Disposal within compound/ bury/ burn 0.151 0.141 0.138
No Electricity Other 0.371 0.408 0.395
Generator 0.418*** 0.442*** 0.445***
Grid Electricity 0.141* 0.214*** 0.211***
No Toilet (Bush, Beach, other) Flush/ pour flush toilet for hh use 0.744*** 0.650*** 0.660**
Flush/ pour flush toilet shared 0.0861 0.0440 0.0521
VIP latrine 0.0940 -0.0103 -0.0133
Covered pit latrine -0.256 -0.306 -0.293
Open pit latrine -0.185 -0.204 -0.192
Toilet cleaning 0.165 0.170 0.176
Flood incidence 0.102 -0.145
0-2 Km 2-4 km -0.154 -0.440
4-6km -0.0113 -0.190
6-8km -0.119 -0.303
>8km 0.219** 0.0182
no flood, 0-2 km 0
no flood, 2-4 km 0
no flood, 4-6 km 0
no flood, 6-8 km 0
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Log of reported rental values
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
(baseline) - (Location (Location
Omitted Variable Variables all controls - controls - Self
All flood Reported
Risks) Flood risk
interaction)
no flood, >8 km 0
flood, 0-2 km 0
flood, 2-4 km 0.401
flood, 4-6 km 0.211
flood, 6-8 km 0.226
flood, >8 km 0.349
Constant 8.636*** 8.592*** 8.811***
Observations 837 837 837
R-squared 0.421 0.435 0.437
Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
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Annex 4: Area Calculations from Drone Image Analyses
TABLE 20: AREA CALCULATION FROM DRONE IMAGERY - CENTRAL MONROVIA (A AND B)
Hectares Sqkm Sqm.
Total area in Central Monrovia (A & B) 453 4.533 4,532,800
Total Plot Area 395 3.945 3,945,300
Total paved road area (incl. sidewalks) 59 0.588 587,500
Total building footprint area ** 107 1.074 1,074,100
Total Built-up Area (building area x no. of floors) 194 1.940 1,940,237
Total open space within plot boundaries 287 2.871 2,871,200
Total area occupied by parking space 12 0.123 123,228
Total area occupied by underused or dead parking space 8 0.080 79,664
Total Govt. owned asset ( building footprint + land) area 85 0.853 853,493
Source: Drone image calculation
TABLE 21: ANALYSIS FROM DRONE IMAGERY - CENTRAL MONROVIA (EXTENDED BOUNDARY, INCLUDING CALDWELL, SINKOR,
LARKPAZEE, SINKOR OLD ROAD AND WEST POINT)
Hectares Sqkm Sqm.
Total area in Central Monrovia with extended boundary 1,806 18.060 18,060,000
Total Plot Area 1,440 14.400 14,400,000
Total paved road area (incl. sidewalks) 366 3.660 3,660,000
Total building footprint area 305 3.050 3,050,000
Total open space within plot boundaries 1,135 11.350 11,350,000
Total Govt. owned asset ( building footprint + land) area 203 2.027 2,027,000
Area occupied by public space (incl. cemetery but excluding beach) 9 0.092 92,905
Source: Drone image calculation
TABLE 22: AREA CALCULATION FROM DRONE IMAGERY - GREATER MONROVIA REGION
Hectares Sqkm Sqm
Total area inside metropolitan boundary 23,368 234 233,680,000
Total area of waterbodies 5,290 53 52,900,000
Total city area excluding waterbodies 18,078 181 180,780,000
Total building footprint area 1,878 19 18,780,000
Total Road area 2,111 21 21,110,000
Total city land area excluding roads and waterbodies 15,967 160 159,670,000
Total Govt. owned land area 1,489 15 14,890,400
Total Govt. owned building footprint area 115 1 1,150,000
Total privately owned city land area 14,478 145 144,779,600
Total Privately owned building footprint area 1,762 18 17,620,000
Source: Drone image calculation
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TABLE 23: ESTIMATION OF INFORMALITY FOR GREATER MONROVIA USING MACHINE LEARNING
Hectares Sqkm Sqm
Study area for land-use based on 2019 imagery 17,700 177 177,000,000
Total area occupied by formal areas (in study area - 177 sqkm) 3,536 35 35,360,000
Total area occupied by informal areas (in study area - 177 sqkm) 8,964 90 89,640,000
Total area occupied by vegetation in study area of 177 sqkm 1,972 20 19,720,000
Total area occupied by marsh in study area of 177 sqkm 2,368 24 23,680,000
Total area occupied by water in study area of 177 sqkm 1,972 20 19,720,000
Source: Staff calculation by Ghost team, WB
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Annex 5: Real Estate Computations
REPORTED REAL ESTATE DATA FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES
TABLE 24: AVERAGE RENTAL PRICE OF OFFICE SPACE IN CENTRAL MONROVIA (EXT AREA)
square square Rental Price Rental price
Neighborhood Clan Zone Type feet meter (USD/month) per sqm
Sinkor Fish Market Sinkor Office 2,178 202 4,000 20
Lakpazee Gbangaye Town Lakpazee Office 10,890 1,012 18,333 18
Mamba Point Mamba Point Central Monrovia A Office 12,000 1,115 12,000 11
Sinkor Sinkor Office 3,000 279 3,000 11
Sinkor Sinkor Office 3,000 279 6,000 22
Mamba Point Mamba Point Central Monrovia A Office 5,524 513 7,500 15
Sources: http://banjooestates.com; https://pricelessrealestateservices.com; https://kaikana.com
Average rental price of office space is estimated at USD 16 per sqm.
TABLE 25: REPORTED LAND LISTINGS FROM REAL ESTATE AGENCIES BY NEIGHBORHOOD
Lots/A Square Sale Price Sales Price
Neighborhood Clan (reported or conjectured) Type cres meter (USD) per sqm
Clara Town Land 1.5 6,070 200,000 33
Mamba Point Mamba Point Land 1.4 5,666 180,000 32
Mamba Point Mamba Point Land 4 16,187 500,000 31
Paynesville Rehab/Bohor Town Land 1 4,047 12,000 3
King Gray-Elwa, Kpelle Town, Kende-
Paynesville jah, Rehab/Borbor Town Land 2 8,094 125,000 15
Rehab/Borbor Town, Duport Road
Paynesville South Land 1 4,047 12,500 3
Paynesville Land 8 32,375 20,000 1
Paynesville Town Hall Land 6 24,281 200,000 8
Congo Town Catholic Hospital, Divine-Togba Camp Land 5 20,234 60,000 3
Duport Road N. East, Duport
Paynesville Road North, Duport Road South Land 1 4,047 6,500 2
Mamba Point Mamba Point Land 1.4 5,666 175,000 31
Paynesville Rehab/Bohor Town Land 8 32,375 18,000 1
Paynesville Rehab/Bohor Town Land 1 4,047 900 0.22
Sources: https://propertyfinder.com.lr/properties/land/monrovia; https://bamadurealestateliberia.com;
https://pricelessrealestateservices.com/property; https://kaikana.com
Notes: 1 lot (=acre)=4047 sqm
The resulting average price of land in USD per square meter in Central Monrovia is USD 32/square meter and
for the extended area of Central Monrovia, an average of Central Paynesville prices is assumed, computed
by taking the average of USD 15 and USD 8 which is equal to about USD 12 per square meter.
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BACK OF THE ENVELOP ESTIMATION OF REVENUE FROM VACANT BUILDINGS AND LAND TAXATION
TABLE 26: OPPORTUNITY COST OF EMPTY GOVERNMENT BUILDINGS COULD BE ABOUT 60 THOUSAND USD/MONTH
Central Monrovia plus Extended Area
price per sqm (USD) based on commercial rents 14.83
total government owned assets (land) 2,027,000 sqm
average building footprint as percent of land area 21%
average public building footprint 29,330 sqm
assumed average stores are 2/building 858,660 total floor space
assumed unoccupied building is 5% 42,933 floor space not used
rent out at lower percentage with obligation to restore (assumed 63,661 monthly
at 10% of commercial rental value)
Source: Drone image calculation; Real estate data
TABLE 27: TWO LAND TAXATION MODELS TO GENERATE LOCAL REVENUE
Potential Revenue at given taxation levels
Extended Central Monrovia Area
Central Monrovia (net of Central Monrovia)
Price per sqm (USD) based on sales 32 12
Private land 2,504,307 6,115,788
Percent of private land 63% 58%
Simple taxation using estimated land values
0.1% 79,195 72,414
0.5% 395,976 362,069
1% 791,951 724,137
Simple taxation applying a fixed rate per square meter
USD 0.03 per square meter 75,129 72,414
USD 0.15 per square meter 375,646 362,069
USD 0.30 per square meter 751,292 724,137
Source: Drone image calculation, real estate data
TABLE 28: VACANCY TAX TO INCENTIVIZE BETTER LAND USE (USING TAX ON LAND VALUES)
Extended Central Monrovia Area
Central Monrovia (net of Central Monrovia)
tax penalty for underutilization (on total
tax revenue above and levied on vacant 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% USD 0.03 USD 0.15 USD 0.30
land) for different tax levels iterated above
10% 7,920 7,920 39,598 7,241 36,207 72,414
30% 23,759 23,759 118,793 21,724 108,621 217,24
50% 39,598 39,598 197,988 36,207 181,034 362,069
Source: Staff calculations
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