WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPER NUMBER 2C3 WTgos0 A FRICA TECHNICAL DEPARTMENT SERIES A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Kevin M. Cleaver 7m", T 464 A~ - RECENT WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPERS No. 139 Environment Department, Environmental Assessment Sourcebook, vol. 1: Policies, Procedures, and Cross-Sectoral Issues No. 140 Environment Department, Environmental Assessment Sourcebook, vol. 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II: Case Studies and Conclusions for Sub-Saharan Africa No. 158 Hay and Paul, Regulation and Taxation of Commercial Banks during the International Debt Crisis No. 159 Liese, Sachdeva, and Cochrane, Organizing and Managing Tropical Disease Control Programs: Lessons of Success No. 160 Boner and Krueger, The Basics of Antitrust Policy: A Review of Ten Nations and the European Communities No. 161 Riverson and Carapetis, Intermediate Means of Transport in Sub-Saharan Africa: Its Potential for Improving Rural Travel and Transport No. 162 Replogle, Non-Motorized Vehicles in Asian Cities No. 163 Shilling, editor, Beyond Syndicated Loans: Sources of Credit for Developing Countries No. 164 Schwartz and Kampen, Agricultural Extension in East Africa No. 165 Kellaghan and Greaney, Using Examinations to Improve Education: A Study in Fourteen African Countries No. 166 Ahmad and Kutcher, Irrigation Planning with Environmental Considerations: A Case Study of Pakistan's Indus Basin No. 167 Liese, Sachdeva, and Cochrane, Organizing and Managing Tropical Disease Control Programs: Case Studies (List continues on the inside back cover) WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPER NUMBER 203 AFRICA TECHNICAL DEPARTMENT SERIES A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Kevin M. Cleaver The World Bank Washington, D.C. Copyright @ 1993 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing April 1993 Second printing August 1996 Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank's work to the development community with the least possible delay The typescript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. 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Permission to copy portions for classroom use is granted through the Copyright Clearance Center, 27 Congress Street, Salem, Massachusetts 01970, U.S.A. The complete backlist of publications from the World Bank is shown in the annual Index of Publications, which contains an alphabetical title list (with full ordering information) and indexes of subjects, authors, and countries and regions. The latest edition is available free of charge from the Distribution Unit, Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from Publications, The World Bank, 66, avenue d'l6na, 75116 Paris, France. ISSN: 0253-7494 Kevin M. Cleaver is Agricultural Division Chief in the Africa Technical Department of the World Bank. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Cleaver, Kevin M. A strategy to develop agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a focus for the World Bank / Kevin M. Cleaver p. cm. - (World Bank technical paper, ISSN 0253-7494 ; no. 203. Africa Technical Department series) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8213-2420-9 1. Agriculture-Economic aspects-Africa, Sub-Saharan-Planning. 2. Agriculture and state-Africa, Sub-Saharan. 3. Agricultural assistance-Africa, Sub-Saharan. 4. Agricultural development projects-Africa, Sub-Saharan. 5. Sustainable agriculture-Africa, Sub-Saharan. I. Title. II. Series: World Bank technical paper ; no. 203. III. Series: World Bank technical paper. Africa Technical Department series. HD2117.C56 1993 93-3624 338.1'0967-dc2O CIP AFRICA TECHNICAL DEPARTMENT SERIES Technical Paper Series No. 122 Dessing, Support for Microenterprises: Lessons for Sub-Saharan Africa No. 130 Kiss, editor, Living with Wildlife: Wildlife Resource Management with Local Participation in Africa No. 132 Murphy, Casley, and Curry, Farmers' Estimations as a Source of Production Data: Methodological Guidelines for Cereals in Africa No. 135 Walshe, Grindle, Nell, and Bachmann, Dairy Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Study of Issues and Options No. 141 Riverson, Gaviria, and Thriscutt, Rural Roads in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons from World Bank Experience No. 142 Kiss and Meerman, Integrated Pest Management and African Agriculture No. 143 Grut, Gray, and Egli, Forest Pricing and Concession Policies: Managing the High Forests of West and Central Africa No. 157 Critchley, Reij, and Seznec, Water Harvesting for Plant Production, vol. 11: Case Studies and Conclusions for Sub-Saharan Africa No. 161 Riverson and Carapetis, Intermediate Means of Transport in Sub-Saharan Africa: Its Potential for Improving Rural Travel and Transport No. 165 Kellaghan and Greaney, Using Examinations to Improve Education: A Study in Fourteen African Countries No. 179 Speirs and Olsen, Indigenous Integrated Farming Systems in the Sahel No. 181 Mining Unit, Industry and Energy Division, Strategy for African Mining No. 188 Silverman, Public Sector Decentralization: Economic Policy and Sector Investment Programs No. 194 Saint, Universities in Africa: Stabilization and Revitalization No.1% Mabogunje, Perspective on Urban Land and Urban Management Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa No. 197 Zymelman, editor, Assessing Engineering Education in Sub-Saharan Africa Discussion Paper Series No. 32 Psacharopoulos, Why Educational Policies Can Fail: An Overview of Selected African Experiences No. 83 Craig, Comparative African Experiences in Implementing Educational Policies No. 84 Kiros, Implementing Educational Policies in Ethiopia No.85 Eshiwani, Implementing Educational Policies in Kenya No.86 Galabawa, Implementing Educational Policies in Tanzania No. 87 Thelejani, Implementing Educational Policies in Lesotho No. 88 Magalula, Implementing Educational Policies in Swaziland No.89 Odaet, Implementing Educational Policies in Uganda No. 90 Achola, Implementing Educational Policies in Zambia No.91 Maravanyika, Implementing Educational Policies in Zimbabwe No. 101 Russell, Jacobsen, and Stanley, International Migration and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa, vol. I: Overview No. 102 Russell, Jacobsen, and Stanley, International Migration and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa, vol. 11: Country Analyses No. 132 Fuller and Habte, editors, Adjusting Educational Policies: Conserving Resources while Raising School Quality No. 147 Jaeger, The Effects of Economic Policies on African Agriculture: From Past Harm to Future Hope Discussion Paper Series (continued) No. 175 Shanmugaratnam, Vedeld, Massige, and Bovin, Resource Management and Pastoral Institution Building in the West African Sahel No. 181 Lamboray and Elmendorf, Combatting AIDS and Other Sexually Transmitted Diseases in Africa: A Review of the World Bank's Agenda for Action No. 184 Spurling, Pee, Miamanga, and Nkwanyana, Agricultural Research in Southern Africa: A Framework for Action Foreword This agricultural strategy paper provides a agriculture. There is of course a considerable vision for African governments, donor agencies diversity of constraints and opportunities and others working on African agriculture. between African countries, and differences in After twenty-five years of agricultural growth strengths among the donors. Each country will slower than population growth, and increasing require a medium- and long-term agricultural problems of food insecurity and environmental strategy adapted to its own circumstances. Each degradation, a reassessment of government and donor will have to identify how best to support donor agricultural strategies in Sub-Saharan these strategies. The five priorities identified Africa is required. This document provides that here should all be found in each country's assessment, identifying government and donor medium- and long-term agricultural develop- policies and investments in agriculture which ment plans. Donors and NGOs should collabo- have worked, and those which have not worked. rate in assisting African countries to implement Five major areas of activity have been identified these plans. which can significantly expand agricultural This paper was prepared by Kevin Cle-,Yer, growth, and address food security and natural formerly of the Agricultural Division, Ted .ical resource management objectives. These include: Department in the World Bank's Africa Region. (i) undertaking macro-economic and agricultural It is based on inputs from World Bank staff, the policy reform needed to make agriculture FAO, the Caisse Frangaise de Ddveloppement, profitable, (ii) developing and disseminating the French government's Ministry of Coopera- improved agricultural technology, (iii) em- tion, USAID, SIDA, the German KfW, British powering farmers so that they can more widely ODA, IFPRI, SPAAR, World Wildlife Fund, participate in managing all aspects of agri- Global Coalition for Africa and a large number cultural development, (iv) developing physical of African officials and academics. Of special and social infrastructure in rural areas, and note is the contribution of Senegal's Ministry of (v) improving the management of natural Agriculture and the seventeen Ministers of resources (soil, water, forest, wildlife, and bio- Agriculture forming the West African Minisers diversity). Increased agricultural production is of Agriculture Initiative. needed urgently in most African countries, and Discussion of this report within Africa and this can be stimulated by policy change among the donors will continue. Comments and combined with agricultural extension. inputs from future reviewers should contribute It is intended that this strategy inform future to the development of country agricultural government and donor interventions in African strategies. 4V. K.J Vice Pres* ent Africa Region World Bank February 5, 1993 v b Contents 1 IntroductionandSummary .................................. The Objectives for African Agriculture ............................ 2 Constraints to Achievements of Objectives .......................... 5 AnAgriculturalaStrategyfrAfrica .............................. 7 Short-Term vs. Long-Term Measures and Supply Response ............. 15 AFocus forthe WorldBank ................................. 15 PART I. The Setting 2 Recent Performance of African Agriculture ...................... 23 Agricultural Growth ...................................... 23 Food Security and Poverty Alleviation ........................... 24 Natural Resources and the Environment .......................... 25 Performance of World Bank Agricultural Projects ................... 27 3 Objectives for Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Afrca .................. 31 Growth of Production and Value Added .......................... 31 Poverty Alleviation and Food Security ........................... 31 Employment Creation ..................................... 34 Natural Resource Management ............................... 34 Are the Objectives Feasible? ................................. 35 4 The Constraints to Agricultural Development In Sub-Saharan Afrs ....a.3. 37 World Markets and Prices ................................... 37 Improved Agricultural Technologies Have Not Come Fast Enough to Africa ... 39 Providing Agricultural Technology in Africa: The Future ....... . ....... 43 PART II. The Strategy 5 Creating an Appropriate Policy Environment for Private Sector Farming, Agricultural Marketing, Processing and Credit .................... 49 Creating an Enabling Policy Environment ......................... 49 Credit and Other Pro-Active Assistance to the Private Sector ............. 3 Divestiture of Agricultural Parastatals ........ .................. 54 Likely Private SectorResponse................................ 56 6 Technology Advancement at the Farm and Enteprie lvel ........... 61 What Kind of Agricultural Technology for the Future? ................. 61 vii A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Agricultural Research ..................................... 62 Agricultural Extension ..................................... 65 Livestock andDairy ...................................... 69 Fisheries ............................................. 73 Irrigation and Drainage .................................... 74 Other Farm Inputs ....................................... 75 7 Development of Farmer Organizations; Empowerment of Rural Populations . 79 Importance of Farmers' Groups and Associations .................... 79 Problems of thePast ...................................... 79 The Future: Farmer Organizations as Autonomous Farmer-Managed Business Enterprises ...................................... 80 8 Infrastructure and Town-Country Linkages: Developing Roads, Water Supply, Education and Health in Rural Areas ..................... 83 W hat is Rural Infrastructure? ................................. 83 Transport ............................................. 83 W ater Supply ........................................... 85 Rural Health and Education .................................. 85 Food and Nutrition 86 An Urban Strategy Which Promotes Agricultural Deevvleploepnmt.ent..7 87 9 Natural ResourceManagement............................... 91 The Problem ........................................... 91 Forests ............................................... 91 Fuelwood ............................................. 95 Natural Resource Management in Farming Areas .................... 96 Pastureland and DrylandAreas................................ 97 Infrastructure and Natural Resource Management .................... 99 Land Tenure ........................................... 99 Information Needs ....................................... 100 Financing ............................................. 101 10 Common Strategic Themes and Expected Impact ................... 103 New Them es ........................................... 103 Short-Term Compared with Long-Term Actions, and Supply Response ....... 106 Historic GrowthRate ...................................... 110 PART III. The World Bank's Role 11 AreasofFocus ortheBank ................................ 115 Policy Reform and Long-Term Agricultural Development Programs ......... 115 Support for Agricultural Investment Projects ....................... 117 Strengthening Agricultural Project Management and Capacity ............. 119 The World Bank's Lending Program, 1992-1997 ..................... 119 vill Contents Tables 1.1 World Bank Agriculture Operations in Africa ....................... 19 2.1 African Countries with High Agricultural Growth Rates ................ 23 2.2 High African Agricultural Growth Rates - Second Tier Countries .......... 24 2.3 Rate of Forest Destruction,1980s .............................. 25 3.1 Sub-Saharan Africa: Population and Food Security, 1990-2020 ............ 32 4.1 Commodity Prices in Constant 1985 Dollars ....................... 38 4.2 Sub-Saharan Africa: Present and Projected Share of Primary Agricultural Commodities ................................... 38 5.1 African Agricultural Growth Rates in Response to Adjustment ............ 50 10.1 Elasticities of Agricultural Output with Respect to Factors of Production ...... 109 10.2 Historic Input-OutputLinkages................................ 110 10.3 Prospective Input-Output Linkages ............................. 111 11.1 World Bank AgricultureOperations............................. 120 Figure 1 Rainfall Deviation,1900-87 .................................. 26 Boxes 4.1 W omen in Agriculture ..................................... 42 5.1 Agricultural Reform - BurkinaFaso............................. 42 5.2 Private Sector-OrientedProjects ............................... 57 5.3 Kenya's HorticulturalExports ................................ 58 6.1 SPAAR's ResearchStrategies................................. 64 6.2 T&V in Kenya and BurkinaFaso .............................. 68 6.3 T&V in COted'Ivoire ..................................... 70 6.4 Animal Husbandry - Central African Republic ...................... 72 6.5 Pastoral Associations in theSahel .............................. 73 6.6 Irrigation in Nigeria ...................................... 74 7.1 Cooperatives inNigeria .................................... 81 8.1 Mozambique Food SecurityReport ............................. 88 9.1 A New Forest Policy in C6ted'voire ........................... 95 9.2 Natural Resource Management in a Farming Area - Machakos, Kenya ....... 97 9.3 Soil Conservation and Water Harvesting in Burkina Faso ............... 98 10.1 Changing Themes for African Agricultural Development ................ 104 Annex Tables A-1 Population Growth Rates and Fertility Rates ....................... 123 A-2 Agriculture's Share inGDP .................................. 124 A-2A Agricultural Growth/Value Added .............................. 125 A-3 Food Security .......................................... 127 A-4 Crop Yields........................................... 128 A-5 Growth Rates of Cereal and Major Export Crop Yields ................. 129 A-6 Agricultural Exports - Value and Volume ......................... 130 A-7 Producer PriceShares ..................................... 131 A-8 Irrigation and FertilizerUse ................................. 132 A-9 Land Use ............................................. 133 A-10 Per Capita ArableLand .................................... 134 ix A 3tateg I Dvdop Apirluur in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank A-1l Forest Area and Deforestation ................................ 135 A-12 Droughts . 136 A-13 Soll Erosion in Selected Countries of Sub-Sabaran Africa, 19700-866.1 137 A-14 Extent of Soll Degradation in Major Regions of the World, Early 1980s ...... 138 A-15 Evaluation of African Agricultural Research Institutions ................ 139 x Acknowledgments In addition to the individuals and organizations through their strategy work for the World Bank listed in the Foreword, the following Individuals as a whole. D. Benor has contributed through had an important input Into this document. his work on extension in Africa. Ms. Cheryl From the World Bank: Messrs. E. V. K. Powell typed the successive drafts and Ms. Jaycox, Ismail Serageldin, Michel Petit, G. Muriel Prah did the desktopping. From outside Schreiber, J. Shivakumar, John Joyce, 'Thoodore the World Bank, particularly useful contribu- Nkodo, Salah Darghouth, Chaim Helman, tions have been made by R. McNamara (GCA), Adrian Otten, Jack van Hoist Pellekaan, A. H. Hjort, P. Lucani (FAO), B. Dioum Rioust de Largentaye, Pierre Landell-Mills, G. (Senegal), J. Diouf (Senegal), C. Delgado Donovan, Michael Walshe, Akhtar Elahl, (IFPRI), M. Yudelman (WWF), B. Stoner Claude Helmo, Richard Manning, Noel (USAID), A. Vizzavona, J. B. Veron, and A. Chabef, V. Venkatesan, Mathurin Gbetibouo, Seznec (Caisse Frangaise do Ddveloppement), Chandra Pattanayak, Andrew Spurling, Jan M. de Verdiere (French Ministry of Coopera- Weljenberg, S. 7llillairajah, Simon Rietbergen, tion), Moctar H. Tourd (SPAAR), I. Geremo David Groenfeldt, Vishva Bindlish, Jean Delion, (SIDA), B. Grimwood (ODA), and Ministry of Raymond Noronha, and Alan Yates. Peter Agriculture staff in Cameroon, Senegal, COte Hazell and Gershon Fader have contributed d'Ivoire, Benin, and Guinea. xi Abstract The World Bank document, Sub-Saharan development in Africa. Specific country and Africa, From Crisis to Sustainable Growth, A investment examples are given to illustrate Long-Term Perspective Study, 1989 set out a successful efforts which should be replicated strategy for development in Sub-Saharan Africa elsewhere. Finally, the future focus of the Bank which is broadly accepted within Africa and by in helping to achieve the strategy is given. much of the international community. The The audience for the report is African present strategy document reviews in more government leaders involved in agriculture and detail the performance of African agriculture, the broader African and international community including policies and projects which have involved in African agriculture, including World worked, and those which have not worked. It Bank management and staff. The document has proposes a set of five broad policy and been an input to the development of an agricul- investment priorities necessary for agricultural ture strategy for the World Bank as a whole. xii 1. Introduction and Summary The World Bank document, Sub-Saharan World Bank agricultural projects, and evaluation Africa, From Crisis to Sustainable Growth, A of completed projects undertaken by other Long-Term Perspective Study, 1989 set out a donors have also informed this strategy. In strategy for development in Sub-Saharan Africa addition to this experience within Africa, there which is broadly accepted within Africa and by are changes in the rest of the world which are much of the international community. The important to incorporate in the strategy; notably present strategy document reviews in more in world commodity markets and in agricultural detail the performance of African agriculture, technology. including policies and projects which have A problem in defining an agricultural worked, and those which have not worked. It strategy for Africa as a whole is the wide proposes a set of five broad policy and variation in the situation of sub-regions and investment priorities necessary for agricultural countries. For example, in Sudan, Ethiopia, development in Africa. Specific country and Mozambique, Somalia, Liberia, and Chad, the investment examples are given to illustrate most important actions for agriculture are successful efforts which should be replicated outside of agriculture: reducing civil strife, elsewhere. Finally, the future focus of the Bank establishing sound principles of governance and in helping to achieve the strategy is given. pluralistic institutions, and generating rapid The audience for the report is African increases in food production. Provision of farm government leaders involved in agriculture, the inputs, rural transport, and improved broader African and international community agricultural policy are the way to quickly involved in African agriculture, including World obtaining more food. Disaster relief will Bank management and staff. The document has continue to be important. By comparison, been an input to the development of an macro-economic policy changes are of greatest agriculture strategy for the World Bank as a importance to stimulating agriculture in the CFA whole. franc countries of Western and Central Africa. The strategy is not a radical departure from Improved government management combined what the Bank has begun to advocate in Africa with investment in infrastructure are of highest over the past three years. This period has been priority for agriculture in Zaire. Continuing to one of considerable experimentation and improve policy and technology transfer are most research by African governments, NGOs, and important in better performing countries such as the donors, including the World Bank. This Kenya, Botswana, Tanzania, and Nigeria. document sets out these findings and changes. The strategy paper sets out the common Helping to inform the strategy are recent elements required for agricultural and rural studies regarding the impact of agricultural development in all countries of the continent. extension projects, improved frameworks for This strategy is comprehensive, discussing all of agricultural research programs, results of the elements which need to be found in African analyses of Africa's forestry sector, better agricultural strategies. An effort was initially knowledge about the nexus between agricultural made to prioritize these elements. However, as development and population and environmental indicated above, the order of priorities will vary issues, some experience with rural infrastructure from one country to the next, so the broad investment, and results from countries in priorities are treated as of equal importance for adjustment. Ex-post evaluation of completed the continent as a whole. Priorities could also be 1 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank arranged by sub-region, or by high and low practices. More emphasis will have to be put on agricultural potential countries. The various agricultural policy, public expenditure reviews stratifications possible do not add much to the and projects which support comprehensive analysis. The next really useful level of African agricultural development strategies. A stratification for broad strategic purposes is the greater emphasis will also have to be placed on country level. Nevertheless, in discussions of creating African capacity and commitment to agricultural technology and natural resource manage agriculture in the private, public, and management, the strategy varies considerably cooperative sectors. This will require more for countries having different agro-ecological responsiveness to African initiatives; not merely situations. These variations are discussed. pushing donor initiatives. Donor support should Although many of the proposals in this paper be comprehensive, assisting the execution of are continuations of the strategic focus in agricultural policy and investment programs agriculture suggested by the Bank in the last needed to achieve growth, food security, and three years, important new directions are environmental objectives. This will mean more proposed to encourage the private sector and to donor collaboration, and less competition empower farmers to more fully participate in all between donors. aspects of agricultural activity and services. Expanded emphasis is placed on sound urban The Objectives for African Agriculture policy as an input to agricultural development, conservation of natural resources, investing in The average rate of agricultural growth in rural infrastructure, and focus on women Africa' has held at about 1.7 to 1.9 percent per farmers. The building of African capacity to annum in real terms since 1965. Population manage these various activities, and the need to growth has increased, from about 2.7 percent improve public expenditure programs, are per annum during 1965-1980, to about 3.1 common elements which receive greater percent per annum since 1980. This decline in attention. More emphasis is placed on the per capita agricultural output is mirrored in a economic, social, and political context in which decline in per capita food production (by about agriculture operates in Africa. Good macro- 6 percent since the average during 1979 to economic policy is a necessary prerequisite for 1981). The rapid rate of increase of food agricultural development. Government and imports (increasing at nearly 4 percent per popular commitment to agricultural development annum since 1974) and food aid (increasing at are prerequisites. Political and social stability 7 percent per annum since 1974), is the result of are also prerequisites. Healthier and better poor agricultural performance, combined with educated people are better able to innovate in rapid population growth and expanding urban agriculture. A distinction is made between populations unable to obtain sufficient actions which can have short-term payoff in agricultural produce from the countryside. In terms of expanded production, and those which some countries, increases in food imports also will take longer to implement and which will result from overvalued exchange rates which have a longer term impact. Many policy artificially cheapen food imports compared to improvements, as well as agricultural extension local production. Despite the increase in food will have a short-term payoff, as well as a long- imports, food intake per person in Africa has term impact. General health and education been estimated at 87 percent of requirements in improvements, land tenure reform, or larger the 1980s. scale irrigation investments have an impact in To this poor agricultural and food situation the longer term. is added substantial evidence of environmental To incorporate these strategic changes, the degradation, including rapid deforestation (3.7 donors will have to change some of their million hectares lost per year), and loss of soil 2 Introduction and Summary fertility. In these circumstances Bank-financed farming, means in large part helping them to agricultural projects have fared badly in Africa, become better farmers. with about one-half having failed to achieve There have been important objections raised economic objectives according to ex-post to the viability of the 4 percent target analysis.' Projects supported by other donors agricultural growth rate. One objection is that are faring as badly, and in some cases worse. such growth is historically unprecedented, and Most projections suggest only limited that there is no evidence in Africa that the improvement in these trends; slightly increased policies and investments needed can be put in agricultural growth, and slightly decreased place to achieve it. This is especially the case in population growth. The strategy proposed in this resource-constrained countries such as those in document is an ambitious one, intended to the Sahel. In response, analysis presented in this significantly improve agricultural performance, document shows that ten African countries in fact doubling agricultural growth to 4 percent already have met the target or have come close per annum in each country. This was the target in the late 1980s and early 1990s, although with set in the Bank's report entitled Sub-Saharan considerable annual fluctuations. Some of these Africa from Crisis to Sustainable Growth, A are resource-poor: Botswana, Chad, and Long-Term Perspective Study, 1989. That report Comoros. Others achieving it or coming close showed that economic growth of at least 4 include Nigeria, Uganda, Benin, Kenya, and percent per annum, which is a minimum Tanzania. Experience from other continents objective, will require agricultural growth at the suggests the feasibility of a sustained 4 percent same level in most countries. This is because per annum agricultural growth rate. China's other productive sectors are relatively small. agriculture, for example, grew at 6 percent in Agriculture provided 32 percent of Gross the 1980s. There are several reasons why high Domestic Product (GDP) on average in 1990. agricultural growth rates may be obtained in Without agricultural growth at 4 percent per Sub-Saharan Africa. Agriculture here has a annum, the generally most competitive industrial lower base from which to grow-crop yields are sector (agro-industry) will not be supplied with incredibly low. Fertilizer use is a small fraction the raw material to permit it to grow by its of fertilizer used in other countries. Irrigated target rate of 5-7 percent per annum. Analysis area is about 20 percent of potential. undertaken for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) found Infrastructure development lags far behind that that agricultural growth is the most important of most other developing countries. Private contributor to the growth of manufacturing and investment has been negligible. All this provides services. Agriculture is the major source of raw large scope for rapid growth, as African material for industry, is a main purchaser of agriculture moves to a level comparable to that simple tools (farm implements), is a purchaser presently achieved in other developing of services (farm mechanics, transport), and countries. farmers are the main consumers of consumption A second objection to the ambitious growth goods produced locally. Agricultural production target relates to the lack of markets. The Bank's will remain the most important element for projections suggest world demand for most addressing food security and poverty, since most agricultural products produced in Africa will of the poor and the food-insecure are rural grow at from I to 3 percent per annum depend- people. Agriculture is the largest private sector ing on the commodity. Africa must therefore in Africa. Stimulating the private sector means increase its market share for these traded stimulating agriculture and agriculturally-related commodities if its exports are to grow at 4 industry. Improving the well-being of women, percent. Simply recapturing its lost market share whose principal economic activity remains would bring export growth up to the desired 3 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank percent 4 percent. However, it will be easier to coincident with democratization, are all hopeful produce import substitutes, in cereals, meat, improvements, consistent with expanded agricul- dairy products, fish, fruits and vegetables. tural output, being introduced into some African Satisfying urban markets, and substituting for countries. In fact, the good agricultural imports would provide the 4 percent agricultural performers in Africa have all instituted these growth rate in many countries. But there is no improvements to some degree. Agricultural doubt that both export growth and import growth in African countries successfully adjust- substitution will require significant improve- ing economic policy is now running at about 3.8 ments in efficiency, relative to that of competing percent per annum, compared to 0.5 percent per countries outside Africa. annum growth for non-adjusters. This document There are reasons for hope on the efficiency demonstrates that most adjusting countries still front. On the one hand, it is expected that have more to do in terms of policy reform, growth of agricultural production outside Africa which could bring more of them up to the 4 will slacken as the Green Revolution slows, as percent growth target. It is this experience of the scope for irrigation expansion shrinks, as the relative success in a few African countries intensity of farm input use declines in response which is the most important contributor to the to the degradation of the natural resource base development of the strategy presented in this in many areas of the world, and as farm document. subsidies decline. Already accustomed to a low Improvement of food security, defined as the input and largely unsubsidized agriculture, ability of people to obtain adequate food at all African agriculture's position in world markets times, is a separate objective from agricultural may improve. Projected declines in real wages growth. People can obtain food security by in much of Africa will help its competitive generating income outside agriculture with position in agriculture. On the other hand, which to buy food. Conversely, rapid increases technology improvement leading to better and in food production may in some cases not cheaper products is likely to continue to be benefit the entire population, leaving some much further advanced in the industrial people without adequate food. For these countries and in Asia-Africa will have trouble reasons, the concept of food security is broader keeping up technologically. Hence, there is than that of food self-sufficiency at the national uncertainty, as well as opportunity. Responsive- level. But in Africa, where a large proportion of ness to domestic and external market demand people are dependent on agriculture, achieve- (which changes rapidly), development of new ment of food security in most countries will be products and processes, and acquisition of most enhanced with the achievement of high technological improvements are likely to be agricultural growth rates, and with widespread critical for Africa. participation of the rural population in such The debate on the viability of a 4 percent growth. For these people to increase income, in agricultural growth target has been useful in most cases they will have to increase agri- identifying the magnitude of the changes cultural production. In addition, since local required to move African agriculture forward. transport and distribution constraints in many Many countries will not achieve this target- African countries restrict the ability of many some will. Changes in agricultural policy which rural people from accessing food markets, the encourage the private sector, efforts to improve most secure supply is their own production. technology generation and dissemination, Although agricultural growth is the most improvements in infrastructure, greater liberty vital element to assure food security in most of for farmers to participate in decisions regarding Africa, it is not sufficient in most countries. their production, greater efforts at environ- Where there is drought and civil strife, food aid mental protection, and institutional reform will continue to be important for both urban and 4 Introduction and Summary rural populations. Poor people will need government intervention assisted by the donors, nutrition-improvement programs and income in marketing, agriculture processing, and input enhancing programs such as public works supply. When marketing and input supply projects, to increase their food intake. systems do not work, and producer prices are Preparation for drought emergencies, and action artificially low relative to input costs, the risks in such emergencies as is now being provided in to farmers who are dependent on these systems Southern Africa and in Northeast Africa, will increase. Risk-averting farmers will not use continue to be important to assure food security these market-dependent methods in this situa- in transitory crises. These are additional reasons tion. The extensive African farming and why food security is a more useful goal than livestock systems which use much land, little food self-sufficiency. capital and labor, and which are less dependent on markets, are rational farmer responses to Constraints to Achievement of Objectives these various natural and government-made constraints. To determine what is required to achieve the These fundamental problems suggest the first objectives established for agriculture requires a of several bulwarks for the proposed agriculture look at what has gone wrong in the past. strategy. This relates to the importance of Technology-based agriculture has not come to bringing the private sector into agricultural Africa on a significant scale. Most of the 1.7 to marketing, processing and input supply, as well 1.9 percent per annum average agricultural as into other commercially- oriented agriculture growth that has occurred has been due to services. Governments, assisted by donors, have expansion of cultivated area, not yield increases. been failures at this activity, and experience There are many reasons for this. For one, there elsewhere suggests that the private sector can be has been little investment in irrigation, which more successful. was a major input into Asia's Green Revolution. There are additional reasons for an expanded In addition, unlike Asia, there has been little private sector focus. World agricultural prices demand by farmers for yield-increasing agricul- are at historically low levels, with no sign that ture technologies. there will be significant improvement. In part The reasons for these deficiencies are this is due to slow expected growth in world complex. In some countries there has been, until demand for most agricultural products. Low recently, widespread land abundance combined world prices will translate into relatively low with labor and capital scarcity. Many of the new prices for African farmers, and for agricultural technologies offered to African farmers in- marketing and processing enterprises. This creased output per unit of land by requiring reflects increasing competition for limited world additional labor and capital input (in the form of markets. Since private enterprise is demon- purchased inputs and equipment). This was the strably and generally more effective at carrying reverse of what was needed from the perspec- on this competition, the future must include tive of the African farmer who had generally greater emphasis on the private sector. little capital and labor, but could open new land. Experience thus far with attracting significant This situation was exacerbated in many African private sector investment in African agriculture countries by government controls of agricultural and agriculturally related industry is poor. More prices, overvalued exchange rates, and heavy pro-active and far-ranging interventions are taxation of agricultural exports, combined with likely to be necessary to stimulate the needed neglect of rural infrastructure, which reduced private sector investment. Macro-economic the profitability of producing for the market. reform is necessary, but is by itself not going to The scenario has been compounded by ill-fated be sufficient. A much wider policy agenda will 5 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank have to be pursued, which is part of the content appalling health and education status of rural of the new strategy. Furthermore, greater populations. Rapidly growing numbers of un- political and social stability will be required. healthy, uneducated rural people are unlikely to The second bulwark of the new strategy be agricultural innovators. Expanded physical which follows from the above analysis is a more and social infrastructure investment in rural effective approach to technology creation and areas, and in secondary towns, is therefore one transfer. Government agricultural services element of the strategy. (research, extension, credit, and livestock In many African countries there is a move- services), most often donor-supported, have not ment toward greater democracy. Even where helped bring relevant agricultural and livestock one-party states still exist, there is some trend technology to Africa on a significant enough toward decentralization of decision-making to scale. This survey finds an extraordinary localities, to nongovernmental organizations and deterioration of agricultural research and of to farmers groups. The initial experience with government agricultural services generally. farmers groups has been positive, especially but Donors are still too competitive with one not exclusively where this democratization is another, and not sufficiently concerned about under way. In addition, expansion of farmers' coordination of their efforts to be effective in groups can contribute to democratization. reversing this situation. There is a technological Farmers' groups are effective mechanisms in revolution in agriculture occurring in industrial many cases for marketing and processing countries, and in Asia and Latin America. The produce, for providing services to members, fruits of this revolution are not being captured and in defending the interests of farmers and by Africa to a significant enough extent. A new livestock owners. The fostering of and greater approach to technology generation and dissemi- collaboration with these groups in rural areas nation is required which greatly expands will have to be part of the agricultural strategy. investment in and the quality of agricultural Only in the last several years has it been research, extension, livestock services, agri- realized that the natural resource base in many cultural education and training. Irrigation African countries is deteriorating sharply. As development must have a larger role in this indicated previously, there is now widespread technology strategy. evidence of serious soil erosion and degradation, Neglect of roads connecting town to country, water pollution, siltation of irrigated areas, and the prevailing focus of government infra- pasture degradation, forest destruction and structure investment in the mega-cities has, in disappearance of wildlands. The importance of many countries, cut the agricultural sector off the "nexus" between rapid population growth, from urban and export markets. It has also cut environmental degradation and agricultural farmers off from the source of improved inputs stagnation is now better understood. Future and equipment, which is in the cities. It is from strategy must put much more emphasis on secondary towns that most services are provided natural resource management to counter these to farming communities, and where the imme- trends. This will include land tenure reform diate collection markets for agricultural produce where necessary, wildlands and forest are usually found. Many African countries have conservation combined with better management focused so much of their resources on the large for sustainable production of various products mega-cities that these essential physical links from these areas, better river basin manage- with agriculture have been neglected. The future ment, and better soil and water management by strategy must correct this situation. Similarly, farmers. Soils in much of Africa have serious the focus of government health, education, and nutrient limitations, made worse by frequently water investment in the larger cities, neglecting erratic rainfall. When population densities were rural areas, has resulted in the frequently low and farmers could shift, these constraints 6 Introduction and Summary could be circumvented to some degree. With development efforts in Kenya's horticulture greater population density, good soil and water sector; in CMte d'Ivoire's tree crop sector; more management becomes critical. recently in small-scale private agricultural trade In addition to the preceding directions for the and processing in Ghana,' Nigeria, Tanzania new strategy, it has been realized that the and Uganda. It takes lessons from successful essential role of women in all aspects of African cotton sector development in West Africa agriculture has been greatly underestimated. inspired by the French cotton company (CFDT). Women are often the main decision-makers on It refers to successful soil conservation projects the farm, and are important in natural resource in Burkina Faso, Rwanda, and Kenya; to pro- management as users of the soil, collectors of mising technology development in maize, dairy fuelwood and water. Their role in social production, fruit, vegetables, and cassava. development is important, since they are the Successful efforts at small-scale irrigation in main contributors to child rearing and household Nigeria and Niger, park management in Kenya maintenance. Women are still less than propor- and Zimbabwe, agricultural extension in Kenya tionately represented in schools, especially rural and Burkina Faso are important guideposts for schools. Their special problems are often over- the strategy. Cooperative credit schemes which looked in agricultural research and extension appear to be working in Rwanda, Burundi, systems and their potential as private investors Benin, and Togo provide a model in the credit is often not exploited in rural-based credit and domain. Improved rural infrastructure in Togo investment schemes. A greater focus on women is an important model. Agricultural growth in is needed in each of the priority areas for countries undertaking structural adjustment is agricultural development. about 3.0 percent per annum greater than that in Finally, the development of an African non-adjusting countries, suggesting directions capacity to manage in each of the above areas for policy change. Unfortunately, the success has been neglected in the past. Often, capacity stories are not numerous, and agriculture in problems have been addressed by furnishing ex- adjusting countries is still not growing fast patriate technical assistance resulting in the neg- enough. Some of the strategy therefore is lect of the development of an indigenous capa- directed to resolving the numerous constraints city to manage agriculture. Had this expatriate- cited here, based on experience outside of led strategy worked, an argument could be made Africa, and on promising initiatives under way for retaining it. However, agriculture has but not yet proven. generally not taken off. Thus, much greater emphasis needs to be put on building African Creating An Appropriate Policy Environmentfor capacity to manage all aspects of agriculture, in Private SectorFarming, AgriculturalMarketing, the public and private sectors. This should at the Processing and Credit same time help generate greater commitment by Africans to agricultural development. The pillar of a new strategy is to undertake policy change necessary to make agriculture, An Agricultural Strategy for Africa agro-industry and related services profitable. This profitability will be the main element to The agricultural strategy proposed for Africa stimulate the private sector (including small is derived from the above analysis regarding farmers) to invest in agriculture, agro-industry, future objectives, past performance and con- livestock, marketing, input supply, and credit. straints. It is also derived from the several Important areas of policy and institutional success stories in African agriculture. This reform necessary to do this are: (a) price, document will illustrate successful private sector exchange rate, and market policy reform, 7 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank generally in the direction of liberalization; must be largely carried out by the private (b) liberalization of the regulatory environment, sector. Direct government investments in these financial market reform, development of private commercial ventures have been almost univer- and cooperative banking; (c) improvement of sally unsuccessful, and are unlikely to succeed the legal establishment and the rule of law; now or in the future in the increasingly harsh (d) privatization and/or restructuring of commercial environment characterizing agricul- agricultural parastatals and agricultural services tural markets. which can operate commercially (veterinary, To finance private investment on the scale farm input supply, and some research and necessary will require enlarged financial extension). The sequencing of policy reform intermediation. Financial market reform is will have to be addressed more effectively in the needed in most African countries to stimulate future. In particular, the enabling environment the development of private and cooperative for private sector investment needs to be created banks which serve agriculture and agriculturally while pursuing trade reform and input subsidy related industry. So is the development of reduction. Otherwise there may be a weak institutions which provide equity financing for supply response. Adequate management of real agricultural and agro-industrial investment, such exchange rates is also absolutely essential for as stock exchanges and investment funds. rapid agricultural growth. Governments can contribute here largely The essence of this objective is that farmers through an appropriate policy environment for and agricultural enterprises must be allowed to banks to flourish and lend to agriculture. become economic players, responding to Generally, this means flexible interest rates, a changes in market conditions as reflected by careful balance between banking supervision freely fluctuating prices. Farm prices should no which is necessary and excessive regulation longer be fixed administratively. Commercial which discourages banking altogether, and by transactions for agricultural products and inputs allowing donor and NGO pro-active assistance should be liberalized. Free prices and liberal to establish lending and savings mobilization in commercial practice already work efficiently for rural areas. In a few cases, joint private and many food crops, fruit and vegetable exports government banking ventures may be necessary and some livestock products in many African to jump-start agricultural lending. Donors can countries. Contrast this with the negative impact finance credit lines, technical assistance to on farmers when world prices are high and private and cooperative banks, subsidies for administered prices low, or on governments banking infrastructure, and in some cases when world prices fall in fixed price and guarantee funds to share the risk of agriculture controlled marketing regimes. Tariff protection lending. In the proper policy environment, and should be established to the extent necessary to with some assistance, private banking establish- counteract dumping, and to maintain approxi- ments will lend to larger farmers, to traders and mately the same level of protection as that to agro-business. Traders and agro-business will afforded to the average product in these coun- lend to farmers. Institutions such as cooperative tries (i.e. no discrimination against agriculture credit banks, and commercial banking establish- in trade policy). ments will lend directly to small and medium Policy reform will not be enough to stimulate farmers only if ways are found of reducing the level of private participation necessary. transactions costs (perhaps by more lending to Pro-active policies and efforts to bring in the groups or briefly subsidizing these costs), private sector will be required. The linkage of mobilizing rural savings (to create a local stake agriculture to industry through the processing of in banking services), and managing risk of agricultural products, the supply of farm inputs default due to climate or commercial crisis and the supply of consumer goods to farmers (guarantee funds can help). 8 Introduction and Summary Continued protectionism and the subsidy of liberalization and improved public expenditure agriculture and livestock products in industrial programs should be undertaken quickly, and can countries is expected. This puts additional have an immediate impact. Reforms which pressure on African agriculture to increase require considerable African management efficiency in order to compete in a world of capacity to implement should be undertaken artificially low prices. Efficiency increases are gradually as this capacity is developed: more likely to come with greater private sector privatization, land tenure reform, financial involvement, stimulated by the domestic policies market development, improved programs for suggested above. But these policies will be even natural resource management and infrastructure more effective if industrial countries further development. open their markets to Africa agricultural produce, and reduce subsidies to their domestic Technological Advancement at the Farm and agriculture. Enterprise Level Economic policy in Africa should include more emphasis on regional integration of Technological development and adoption agricultural markets than has been emphasized needs to be significantly more effective than in in the past. Generally, strategic advice has the past. This technological improvement should focussed on domestic market liberalization in be directed to obtaining more and better output Africa. This advice is still appropriate. How- from the same inputs. This can include new ever, it is in many cases easier, as a first step, types of products, including processed products. to liberalize agricultural trade and capital flows It can also come about through expansion in between neighboring countries in Africa. This is input use, particularly fertilizer, improved consistent with calls for greater collaboration in seeds, irrigation water, animal feed, and agriculture research, and sharing of information veterinary services for livestock. In most of on policy reform between African countries. Africa, it should generally be directed at Improvement of economic policy has already expanded output on the same land area with as been incorporated in many African government little capital as possible, but in many cases with strategies and donor strategies for African more labor (given the expected continued rapid agriculture, although progress has been very growth in rural populations and the expected slow in some countries. There has been a consequent decline in real wages). As policy tendency of governments and donors to focus changes in favor of agriculture, it will become their policy work on macro-economic policy more profitable for Africans to invest their labor reform, changes in agricultural price, trade, and in agriculture and agriculturally related industry. tax policy. Much weaker efforts have been There are exceptions to this, where the land made in other areas of agricultural policy frontier will remain large for some time, despite reform such as land tenure, cooperative law, rapid population growth. Zambia is such an regulations of financial institutions, the example. Here, labor-saving and land-using regulatory framework for forest and natural technology such as mechanized land preparation resource management, improved public expen- will be extremely important. In addition, despite diture programs. Even less pro-active assistance rapid population growth in rural areas, seasonal to the private and cooperative sectors has been labor bottlenecks will continue to be a con- provided. Agricultural policy reform needs to straint. Innovations which overcome those incorporate these additional areas through bottlenecks, saving seasonal labor time, will be medium- and long-term agriculture policy important. But everywhere in Africa, technology frameworks established by every African improvement directed at small farmers should country. Reforms which release African generally minimize cash and capital input so that capacity such as price, tax and market it is accessible to them. Technological change 9 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank will also have to address the need for good soil networks for specific commodities and themes, and water management. and in bringing international agricultural The kinds of technology that the above research centers and industrial country research translates into will vary by agro-ecological zone. institutions in as partners. Furthermore, In many of Africa's diverse regions, however, expanded cooperation is required in each technology improvements needed include new country with the private sector, NGOs, and agricultural products, low cost soil nutrient university research centers. The tendency for improvement, soil and water conservation on each public agricultural research institution to farms, agro-forestry and tree planting, pursue its own research agenda independently integrated crop-livestock systems, improved must end. In most countries, in-country public multi-cropping systems, improved seed varie- sector agricultural research should focus more ties, integrated pest management combined with on adaptive and applied research, as well as the limited use of chemical pesticides and farming systems research. Fundamental research herbicides, improved hand tools, animal results should usually be brought in from traction, improved livestock including small abroad. Some public sector research can be stock, use of local by-products for animal feed, done by private or university contractor. Private simple processing and storage technology and sector agricultural research should not be perhaps most important, increased fertilizer use. inhibited. The private sector is more likely to In drier low-potential regions, more attention address the technology issues of the most should be paid to pastoral livestock systems, profitable commercial crops, grown on large sorghum and millet, pasture management, soil farms and plantations, when investing its own and water management. In humid areas, tree resources in research. This is important for crops and agro-forestry may be most important. agricultural development. Private sector Research has been ongoing on these types of agricultural research continues to be inhibited in technologies, and some of that research has many African countries by outmoded regulations found its way into farmers fields. The magni- and constraints. These various new concepts tude of this effort needs to be increased. should be developed within national agricultural Technology development and dissemination is research master plans for each country, and for done through agricultural and livestock each region. The Special Program for African research, extension, education, and input Agricultural Research (SPAAR) is assisting this supply. work. Agricultural research systems need to be Extension is found to be important to bring rehabilitated and refocused in nearly every new technologies to farmers, and to identify African country. The refocusing is needed in the farmer problems for research. Extension for content of agricultural research, to make it more profitable commercial crops and livestock, and responsive to both farmers' needs and to the for serving the largest farmers can increasingly emerging challenges facing agriculture. More be provided by private sector agro-business and work is required to develop and adapt technolo- input suppliers. For food crops and for poor gies such as those listed above which show farmers, public sector extension will continue to promise in smallholder conditions. As world be important for some time. Donors need to markets change, research is needed to improve collaborate rather than compete, in helping or change the quality of African export produce governments establish a single public sector to match world demand. Many African agricul- extension program. This will reduce extension tural research establishments are too small to overheads and confusion. Most African undertake the entire gamut of research neces- countries are too small and too poor to host the sary. For this reason much more emphasis is many public sector extension systems that needed on establishing multi-country research donors and NGOs have introduced to them. In 10 Introduction and Summary the public systems, more emphasis needs to be monitoring and taxing foreign off-shore put on serving women farmers, on addressing fisheries. environmental issues, in providing menus of Farm input supply is often a constraint to the technologies from which farmers can choose, in introduction of new technology. In some cases, establishing formal links between research and the constraint is lack of farmer demand for extension, and in using farmers; groups as the inputs because of high cost relative to output field-level contact point for extension agents. As prices, or limited knowledge, or the risk of in the case of research, public sector extension supply ruptures. In some cases, farmers are needs to become more pluralistic, cooperating ready to purchase greater quantities of farm with private enterprises, and with NGOs. inputs, but supplies are not available. Past Competition between various public sector responses to this situation were for governments systems, which often characterizes the present and donors to manage the distribution of farm situation, is self-defeating. inputs and in many cases, subsidize their use- Mass communications can be used to com- this has not worked. The strategy must be to plement field-level extension. Improved educa- address the bottlenecks on the demand and tion is rural areas will also be important in supply side. Research and extension can address developing a capacity among future farmers to the issue of the best types of inputs, and understand increasingly complex agricultural improve farmer knowledge. Cost is best and livestock technologies. These are important addressed not through subsidies, but by pro- roles for government. active government policy to assist the expansion Livestock development must be managed of suppliers and facilitate imports (by largely by livestock owners, and by the private abandoning the licensing of suppliers, and and cooperative enterprises which purchase making foreign exchange available to importers livestock products and supply inputs. Efforts at of inputs), and through road development to government control of livestock markets and reduce distribution costs. Credit facilities can be input supply, or of livestock production, have useful here (again unsubsidized and preferably largely failed and should be abandoned. private or cooperative managed). Governments However, governments can support private might more pro-actively invite foreign suppliers efforts by including livestock technology in into the country, to help set up distribution research and as extension messages. One networks or even to produce the input. important area that has been neglected by Small and medium irrigation has potential in research and extension is small ruminants and some countries, as does investment in the backyard poultry. Government can support maintenance and rehabilitation of larger through technical assistance and appropriate schemes. For irrigation projects, full recovery legislation the establishment of livestock of operation and maintenance costs in associations, associations of pastoralists, and the recommended. Better management is needed in establishment of private veterinarians. In some nearly every scheme. This may be obtained by cases, lines of credit to these groups, at sale to or contracting with the private sector, unsubsidized rates, can help. Government vac- and participation in management by water user cination programs and other livestock health associations. programs, executed by private veterinarians, is another avenue of productive government assis- Development of Farmers' Participation tance. and Empowerment Fisheries development has potential in some countries. But this is a private sector activity This objective is consistent with (a) the that government can assist through research and increasing democratization of many African extension, especially in aquaculture, and societies which allows greater farmer 11 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank participation in decision-making; (b) the investment from the largest cities to secondary widespread finding in all agricultural projects towns as well as to rural areas. Secondary towns that active farmer participation is usually one are often the first collection markets for condition of success; and (c) a situation in agricultural produce and the point of wholesale which governments are unable to manage and for agricultural inputs and services. They are finance all rural development activity. The also the places where farmers buy consumer capacity of cooperative or informal groups of goods, and to which they send their children for farmers should be developed to enable them to secondary education and health services. The efficiently undertake crop marketing, pro- neglect of secondary towns common in African cessing, input supply, credit, land management, public expenditure programs has therefore been infrastructure maintenance, and management of detrimental to agricultural development. many agricultural services at the field level. Also relatively neglected are public Farmer organizations tend to succeed if farmers investments in rural water supply, rural can manage autonomously from government, education and rural health. Again, part of the and if the organization has a business purpose problem is the skewed allocation of public and is profitable. Only these types of resources which frequently favors the mega- organizations should be supported. NGOs and cities. In many African countries, the establish- cooperatives from industrial countries have an ment and functioning of a single urban hospital important role to play in assisting African obtains greater public resources than the cooperatives and farmer organizations. combined total of all rural health expenditures, Governments and donors would generally be despite the fact that the former serves an well-advised to work through NGOs in this infinitesimal proportion of the population endeavor. Training and capacity-building compared to the latter. Rural health is greatly undertaken through various farmers affected by the availability of water. As organizations will be extremely important. populations grow in rural areas, investment in rural water supply will have to grow. Education Developing Physical and Social Infrastructure in rural areas has been perhaps most neglected. Including Roads, Rural Water Supply, Rural A statistical study now under way in the Africa Education, and Rural Health Facilities Region of the World Bank, to estimate the weight of various factors determining crop As indicated on page 6, greatly expanded yields across African countries and through investment in roads linking country to town and time, finds that the weight attached to city is required. These include rural roads, as educational level of the farm population is high. well as secondary and primary roads. Rural Education increases the quality of agricultural roads, however, have been the most neglected. labor, a critical ingredient of agricultural Although roads are the main infrastructure need growth. of agriculture, investment needs also exist in In addition to increasing the priority attached port facilities and telecommunications. In some to social and physical infrastructure for the countries, the high cost of transport is the single development of agriculture, the strategy suggests most important constraint to expanding com- a new approach to developing it. Because of mercial agriculture. Where this constraint government capacity-constraints, local com- exists, there is a greater tendency for the munities and the private sector must be brought agricultural needs of the cities to be served by in more forcefully to construct and maintain imports. infrastructure. In some cases, such as domestic Generally, to redress the excessive urban water supply, communities can finance at least bias of the past, there should be a reallocation operation and maintenance. Governments should of public sector transport infrastructure not continue to maintain a public monopoly on 12 Introducdon and Summary any of these services. Where the private sector should be important components of forest and local communities are willing to act, programs. Physical and social infrastructure governments must encourage rather than dis- development should take account of forest courage this willingness. resource management needs. This will mean focusing such infrastructure in areas where Natural Resource Management and population settlement should be encouraged, and Forest Conservation excluding it from environmentally sensitive areas. Parks and protected areas need good Better natural resource management is management, in collaboration with local needed to preserve the productivity of land, populations. Tropical Forest Action Plans, led water, forest, plant and animal life in the face of by FAO, or local use plans prepared by govern- widespread environmental degradation in Africa. ments, should be supported where they prepare Managing the natural resource base is both an countries to implement this kind of forest important ingredient for agricultural production, strategy. and is an objective in itself. Natural resource In areas which are heavily farmed, and in management requirements vary from country to which forests have largely disappeared, natural country. Generally, the problems reflect market resource management strategies should focus on failures. Markets for natural resources have not research and extension, to introduce better developed in a manner which induces individual farming and livestock husbandry practices, decisions to be consistent with economically, forestry and fuelwood production and water use socially, or environmentally desirable outcomes. to farmers, who own and manage these re- Often, financial returns to natural resources sources. New soil conservation techniques can exploitation are higher than they would be if the be extended more widely to farmers in these environmental cost were fully reflected in areas. The incentive system (prices, land, and financial costs. Where this difference is known, ownership), must be such as to encourage good user fees and taxes can be levied to adjust for it. natural resource management practices. This In countries with substantial forest resources, incentive system will generally be one a focus is likely to be forest conservation and characterized by flexible agricultural product protection of bio-diversity combined with the and input prices, avoidance of typically high sustainable production of wood and other forest taxes on agricultural products (direct and products. Forest programs are much more com- indirect)," but subsidized research and extension plex than was realized in the past. Improved tax services. However, this is not enough. Typi- and concession policy to deal with inefficient cally, there is competition for land in the better and destructive logging practices is one key agricultural areas. Land must be allocated for element. Strengthening government forest ser- infrastructure, parks, forest, grazing lands and vices is another. A third will be the establish- agriculture. Planning is useful because of the ment of land tenure systems which give forest important trade-offs between these various uses. dwellers a stake in forest management and Providing land tenure security to traditional land conservation while protecting their livelihoods. users is important in most countries to en- This will require either allocating ownership or courage them to invest in the land. This can be long-term user rights in forests to forest done by allocating and respecting some combi- dwellers. Usually, the ownership or user right nation of group titles, individual titles, or secure should be granted to traditional or local long-term user rights. The efficiency of the communities. Industrial forest plantations and judicial system in protecting these rights will be the introduction of tree-growing to farmers important. 13 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank In pasture areas, land-use planning will also technical assistance. This tendency is so be important, since there are trade-offs here as pronounced that a significant proportion of aid well between the predominate pastoralists, to agriculture now comes in the form of farmers who are moving into pasture areas to technical assistance. A major shift is required farm, fuelwood gatherers, and bio-diversity toward building African capacity to manage preservation. Markets generally do not exist for through expanded training, support to educa- pasture land, so the market place cannot be used tional institutions in Africa, and support to for allocating land. Resolving land disputes is an learning by doing. All donor and NGO projects important aspect of the solution to the problems should include capacity-building efforts as a of pastoral areas, including that of increasing main plank. African capacity can be liberated fuelwood scarcity. People with some security of where it already exists by allowing greater land use are more likely to invest in the land, private, NGO, and university participation in all including in trees for fuelwood. The manage- aspects of African economic life. A smaller role ment of pastureland by local peoples, grouped for government will help it to focus on doing into associations, is an important element of the well those tasks that remain to it. strategy. But these associations must be Expanded assistance to African agricultural provided ownership or assured long-term user education, from the primary school to university rights to the land. levels, is needed. The needs are not quanti- Natural resource management is extremely tative, but qualitative. Better curriculum and complex, and there is not yet a good example of better trained teachers are needed at all levels. a successful national program, although there Generally, agricultural curricula from primary are many promising starts and successful small- school to university need to be made more scale projects. The national programs which are relevant to each country's agricultural situation, required vary enormously by country and agro- and more closely connected to the realities of ecological situation. Generalities beyond those African farming. The difficulty is that this must mentioned above are difficult. For this reason, be done while still preparing students to it is useful to develop a broad strategy for each understand the complexities of rapid techno- country in an environmental action plan. These logical changes elsewhere in the world. plans will deal with other environmental issues beyond natural resource management, but in Is the Strategy Different from most African countries will focus on natural Existing Strategy? resources important to agriculture: soil, water, forests, pasture, fisheries. There is an important The strategy proposed here is very different role for research in this domain, given the many from the approach followed in most African technical and scientific issues which remain countries and by most donors. It also reflects a unanswered. difference with Bank practice in the past. Much of government and donor focus has been on Developing African Capacity to only one of the five priorities: the ceation and Manage Agriculture dissemination of agricultural technology. While this will continue to be of great importance, the Success in each of the preceding five priority approach to it will have to become more areas requires the building of African capacity pluralistic, involving non-governmental actors to manage agriculture, at the level of the farm, and especially farmers. More multi-country the enterprise, the cooperative, and in govern- collaboration will be required, and the role of ment. As indicated on page 7, the tendency of the private and cooperative sectors expanded. donors, NGOs and some governments has been The content of most public sector agriculture to address capacity constraints with expatriate research needs to be directed more toward 14 Introduction and Summary responding to farmers needs. Regarding policy Short-Term vs. Long-Term Measures and reform, structural adjustment programs have Supply Response pursued many of the elements identified as necessary in this strategy. However, this These various approaches will produce document finds that structural adjustment results over the short-, medium- and long-term. programs have neglected many areas of Those parts of the strategy which can generate importance for agriculture; the reform agenda immediate returns are agricultural policy needs to be significantly expanded and deepened improvement, extension, and improved farm in the areas of land tenure, natural resource input supply. Many activities will have large conservation, improved public expenditure benefits only in the medium-term: credit, programs, social services in rural areas, privatization, road-building, soil conservation, regional integration, and private sector land tenure reform are examples. Some parts of development. The sequencing of reform must the strategy will have an impact only in the also be more carefully designed. Neither long-term: education, population policy, bio- governments, the Bank, nor other donors have diversity conservation, and sound urban policy devoted enough attention to farmer participation are good examples. and natural resource management. These are Analysis of supply response suggests that the therefore areas of new and expanded activity. preceding measures can generate short-term Changes are proposed in expanding investment agricultural growth response in the 3-4 percent in rural transport to link rural areas to urban per annum range (Nigeria, Uganda, Tanzania, markets. Expanded attention to secondary towns Burkina Faso are examples of rapid supply is also new. Explicit inclusion of rural water, response to policy reform and good agricultural health and education development as an extension). Sustained agricultural growth in the ingredient of agricultural development is 3.5 to 4.5 percent per annum range is possible needed, and is new. Finally, the overarching (medium and long-term growth), in response to emphasis on building African capacity to the package of measures suggested here. This is manage agriculture is new. demonstrated by the experience in Nigeria, Most important is a broadening of the view Kenya, Botswana, Tanzania, Benin, Comoros, about the context in which agricultural develop- and Guinea-Bissau where agricultural growth of ment must take place. Narrow views of agricul- this magnitude has continued for up to five tural strategy as essentially technology improve- years, with better though still imperfect ment and good macro-economic policy are in- implementation of the types of recommendations adequate. A greatly expanded vision of both the suggested here. role of agriculture and the factors which contri- bute to agricultural growth is necessary. Social A Focus for the World Bank sector development, environmental concerns, physical infrastructure development, as well as The World Bank plays an extremely political development and creation of the rule of important role in African agriculture, as the law are all vital to the development of agricul- major contributor to projects in agriculture, ture. And agricultural development will contri- infrastructure, social services, finance, and to bute to progress in each of these areas, by creat- structural adjustment programs which affect ing the wealth, broadly distributed in the popu- agricultural policy. As such, it will be the major lation, necessary to maintain social progress, to external source of support to African finance preservation of the environment, and to governments, the private sector and local permit people to divert more energy from mere communities in implementing the strategy survival to political participation. proposed. To have a significant impact on 15 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank agriculture, the Bank will contribute to each of programs must increasingly be, with good the priority areas noted here. policy, a pre-condition to Bank agricultural The World Bank's comparative advantage lending. The Bank must increasingly tie its relative to other donors, NGOs and the private disbursements for investment projects to the sector is in supporting policy and sector performance of projects, not merely to project investment. Considerably more of its attention expenditures. and energy must be devoted to agricultural The counterpart funding problem in most policy reform. This will require better Bank agricultural projects must be dealt with agricultural analysis, expanding the content of through the PERs, greater effort at the design policy reform to include factors such as land stage to ensure government commitment, greater tenure, rural infrastructure, rural education, hesitancy by the Bank to go forward with pro- natural resource management and agro-industry, jects for which government commitment is not and greater attention to sustaining reforms perceived as being adequate, increasing the role already undertaken. Increasingly, agricultural of private and NGO sectors in projects (to lending programs should be conditioned on reduce the government's fiscal burden), and agreement with governments regarding agri- financing up to 100 percent of total recurrent cultural policy reform. Each African country costs on a long-term declining basis for agri- needs a medium- to long-term agricultural cultural research projects, and for other agri- development and policy framework within culture service projects when there is sufficient which this agreement can be fashioned. country justification. The Bank and other donors should support To address project management problems this framework through an appropriate and to build African capacity, there must be combination of policy-based and investment more careful design of training needs, parti- operations. But support should be given only cularly training in management, procurement when there is a perception of genuine com- and accounting. Projects should be kept simple, mitment to these programs. The Bank also needs commensurate with the ability of managers, to more forcefully advocate agricultural trade with training, to execute them. Less emphasis and subsidy reform in industrial countries, should be put on expatriate technical assistance. thereby becoming more balanced in its policy Greater investment in agricultural education, advice between industrial and developing coun- with an initial focus on qualitative improvements tries. to education, is necessary to build basic capa- Improved public expenditure programs are city. The donor's African Capacity Building vital to healthy agricultural growth and to a Initiative (ACBI) is doing this for higher healthy Bank portfolio in agriculture. Public education in the economic and policy areas. Expenditure Reviews (PERs) must be taken Similar support will be provided for agricultural much more seriously by agricultural divisions, education. which must use this opportunity to identify Investment in private sector agro-processing, actions needed to provide appropriate priority to marketing and large farm activity needs to be agriculture, and to eliminate poorly-conceived expanded. Innovative ways of doing this need to projects. Results of PERs must be followed up. be developed, and include targeted but unsubsi- It is pointless for the Bank to expand lending to dized credit, equity funds which can make agriculture in countries which refuse to allocate equity investment, a renewed interest by IFC in adequate resources for the operations of this sector, support to trade and professional projects. As public expenditure programs groups, and reducing policy constraints. become better and sector policy improves, the Parastatal divestiture will be supported. Bank can move to sector investment lending. Agricultural credit projects will support Agreed improvements to public expenditure farmer and privately-managed savings and loan 16 Introduction and Summary associations, and commercial banks operating in environmental action plans, land-use plans, rural areas. The Bank has a role in assisting in water resource plans, etc.). Investment projects both developments. having negative environmental impact will be The innovations in the design of agricultural dropped, unless the negative effects can be research projects proposed by the SPAAR task mitigated. forces studying the Sahel and SADC situations, Irrigation projects can be improved with should be incorporated in on-going and future greater ownership and management by farmers, agricultural research projects. Most important is farmers groups, and or the private sector. Less the introduction of non-governmental actors in complex and more small-scale schemes should agricultural research, complete restructuring of be the focus of donor support relative to large- public sector research establishments based on scale schemes. Better operation and maintenance high-quality national master plans, better of successful large-scale schemes should also be funding mechanisms, and regional cooperation supported. Contracting with private companies in research. to manage schemes should be attempted more Agricultural extension projects, ongoing and often by governments. New large-scale schemes planned, need to include a bigger role for the deserve sceptical scrutiny, but not automatic private sector, NGOs, cooperatives, and exclusion. women. Agricultural education, mass media An expansion of Bank activity in the area of communication to farmers, and expanding the rural roads and water supply is required. This scope of extension messages are important needs community participation in maintenance, innovations. and the use of private contractors for Incentives and assistance need to be construction. improved to allow livestock owners to take real A reduction of the urban bias of African control of livestock project services, pasture government public expenditure is needed, and management and other livestock development within the urban budget, relatively more activities. There is considerable scope for dairy investment is needed in secondary towns and development in high potential areas. More focus cities and less in the large mega-cities. in livestock projects is required on private Secondary towns and cities are more intimately sector management of marketing, input supply connected to agriculture, while mega-cities and veterinary services. There is considerable depend more on imports. Bank lending needs to potential for. small ruminants and backyard be reallocated accordingly. poultry. Extension services need to provide Farmer empowerment in all areas listed livestock messages. above will be necessary. Bank assistance to Ongoing and future forestry and natural cooperatives, farmers organizations and land resource management projects will have to more tenure reform are all ways of doing this. broadly incorporate actions involving land The particular constraints of women in tenure reform, more careful and circumscribed farming, processing, fuelwood gathering, land settlement and resettlement, community household management, water collection, among action and ownership, forest conservation, and others, need continuous special attention in all agricultural development around the periphery project design (for example in extension, credit, of the forest. Extension of natural resource land tenure, forest, and private sector projects). management messages to local populations will Food security interventions involve more be important. These projects should support than just expanding food production. Nutrition national natural resource management programs, interventions, employment creation among the as designed through one or more of the existing poor, and better food distribution are legitimate instruments (tropical forestry action plans, interventions to be supported by the Bank. The 17 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Bank will also assist in drought emergencies as expand its capacity in this regard through more it is now doing in Southern Africa and in the staff based in the field, the Bank will have to Horn of Africa. increasingly work through NGOs, the private Improving health, education and family sector, and local communities, as well as planning services in rural areas are important traditional government and donor partners to do inputs to agricultural development, as well as the implementing and to help with supervision. desirable in and of themselves. This is all the This means greater contact with other non- more apparent with the onset of an AIDS governmental institutions, more "wholesale" epidemic in some countries. More Bank support work, less retail work. It will mean more sector for social services in rural areas will be work, including scrutinizing inter-sectoral undertaken. linkages. It will also mean more training of Eliminated from Bank support will be inte- Africans to manage services themselves. As a grated rural development projects; support for result, the Bank's efforts at donor coordination parastatal agricultural marketing, processing and and collaboration must increase, as well as its credit institutions except as transitory institutions work with governments and with non- where the private sector does not yet exist; ex- governmental organizations, to foster commit- clusive focus on government institutions in agri- ment. culture research, extension, forestry, and live- One implication of this is that the instrument stock services; new large-scale irrigation pro- of choice for Bank involvement will not jects or irrigation projects managed exclusively necessarily be lending. In many cases it will be by governments; and exclusive government con- participation in policy formulation or the struction, operation and maintenance of rural development of medium-term agricultural infrastructure. The private sector and NGOs will development programs, donor coordination, be systematically brought into Bank projects. public expenditure reviews, implementation The strengthened Bank focus on policy assistance and training. To mobilize all the changes in agriculture (not just macro-economic talent available and to help generate African policy), guiding African capacity to manage commitment, the Bank will have to be more these various activities, and improving public responsive to local initiatives, less dogmatic in expenditure programs in agriculture, will applying its own approach, and more willing to capitalize on the Bank's strengths in the policy work with others. But when projects are not area, its comprehensive coverage of develop- succeeding, the Bank must become more willing ment, its donor coordination role, and its ability to stop disbursements. to mobilize and apply significant resources. The The Africa Region's agricultural lending Bank is less successful at managing agricultural program for the period July 1992 to July 1997 projects on the ground. Although it should reflects these priorities. 18 Introduction and Summary Table 1.1. World Bank Agriculture Operations in Africa Number of Loan Amount Projects ($ million) Agricultural sector loans, and sector investment 11 612.2 Agricultural services (research, extension, seeds, inputs) 32 1142.9 Agro-Industry, private sector, credit, marketing, coops 15 674.6 Food security 4 159.7 Forestry, environment, natural resource management, land 23 760.7 tenure Irrigation and Drainage 6 210.1 Livestock/fisheries 9 302.1 TOTAL 100 3862.3 Other operations which will have an impact and population projects amounting to total loans on agriculture, although not directly focused on of US$1,458.3 million (for break-up, see last the sector, include rural road,' water supply page of Chapter 11). Notes 1. Reference to Africa is to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). 2. Based on ex-post calculations of economic rate of return. 3. An interesting study of Ghana foodcrop markets illustrates how well these markets work in that country; Harold Alderman, "Intercommodity Price Transmittal, Analysis of Food Markets in Ghana,"World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 884, 1992. 4. See Maurice Schiff and Alberto Valddz, The Plundering of Agriculture in Developing Countries, World Bank, 1992. 5. The loan/credit amounts directed to the rural road components are not identified separately. The number includes all transport projects with a rural road component. 19 PART I The Setting Recent Performance of African Agriculture 2. Recent Performance of African Agriculture Agricultural Growth East and North Africa, 3.0 percent in South Asia, and 1.9 percent in Latin America and the During the period 1965-1980, Sub-Saharan Caribbean. Taking the average per capita food Africa's agricultural value added in constant production in Africa during 1979-1981 as the prices, increased at 1.8 percent per annum on base (with an index of 100), the average index average (Annex Table 2A shows growth rates of per capita food production in the 1988-1990 for each country), compared with an annual period was 94 in SSA, compared with 115 in all average increase for the same period of 2.7 developing countries (Annex Table 3). The percent per annum in SSA's population (Annex volume of agricultural exports from SSA de- Table 1 shows population growth rates for each clined at an average rate of about 2.7 percent country).' During 1980-1990, the agricultural per annum from 1980 to 1990 (Annex Table 6), growth rate declined slightly to 1.4 percent per while comparable figures for all developing annum, while the population growth rate ex- countries show an increase. panded to 3.1 percent per annum. By compari- The following ten countries recently had son, agricultural value added in constant prices good to excellent growth rates (3.5 percent per grew during 1980-1990 by 4.8 percent per year annum or above during most of the period 1986 in low- and middle-income countries in East to 1991). The countries are shown in order of Asia and the Pacific, 4.3 percent in the Middle the most impressive agricultural growth. (For a Table 2.1. African Countries with High Agricultural Growth Rates (percent per annum) 1986-1989 1990 1991 Chad 6.1 8.9 20.0 Cape Verde 12.0 -3.8 9.3 Nigeria 4.3 4.1 5.0 Botswana 19.5 3.7 2.7 Guinea-Bissau 6.4 2.5 5.7 Uganda 6.0 3.4 2.9 Benin 5.0 1.4 4.5 Kenya 4.3 3.5 -0.7 Tanzania 4.5 2.9 - Comoros 4.5 2.8 3.9 23 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Table 2.2. High African Agricultural Growth Rates - Second 71er Countries (percent per annum) 1986-1989 1990 1991 Siera Leone 3.6 1.7 3.1 CMte d'Ivoire 3.6 4.2 -1.5 Burkina Faso 3.1 -3.4 4.7 full listing see Annex Table 2A). Food Security and Poverty Alleviation Countries doing relatively well, in the 3 to 3.5 percent per annum growth range for most of There are no reliable statistics for food the 1986-1991 period are shown in Table 2.2. security and rural poverty. However, where above. agricultural growth is poor and no other produc- This list of successful and relatively tive sector is performing well, in the medium successful agricultural performers in the late term, food security is unlikely to be assured. 1980s and early 1990s comprises less than one- Poor farm performance in SSA has led to an in- third of African countries, though the excellent crease in food imports. Between 1974 and 1990, performance of Africa's most populous country, cereal imports by SSA rose at the rate of 3.9 Nigeria, is extremely important. Nigeria, Chad, percent per annum ( Annex Table 3), and food Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Benin, Uganda, and aid in cereals by 7.0 percent per annum.3 De- Tanzania were all poor agricultural performers spite this increase in food imports, the average in the 1960s and 1970s. This change in daily caloric intake per person in Africa has performance suggests what can be done to been estimated at about 87 percent of require- reverse agriculture's fortunes in other African ments in the 1980s (Annex Table 3 for data by countries. country). In 1980, about one-quarter of SSA's Against the notable achievements have come population, some 104 million people, were nor- some notable setbacks to agricultural growth mally unable to secure adequate food for them- (1986-1991) in Congo, Mali, Zambia, Togo, selves." A wide range of countries are affected. Somalia, Zimbabwe, Senegal, the Central Afri- The Sahelian countries, Ethiopia, Sudan, can Republic, Gabon, Cameroon, Angola, Somalia and some of South Central Africa, form Sudan, Rwanda, and Mauritania (see Annex the core group of food-insecure at the national Table 2A for data). Table 2.1 shows the situa- level, but all other countries include sizeable tion in C6te d'Ivoire and Kenya to be recently populations who do not obtain adequate food.' deteriorating. The causes of these setbacks A minimum acceptable level of calories per include drought, civil disturbance, and poor capita per day is estimated at 2,330. For economic policy. The present drought in Sou- comparison, the average for all developing them Africa has greatly affected agriculture in countries was about 2,523 in 1989; China Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, Botswana and assures 2,640. African countries assuring 2,330 South Africa in 1992. These disturbances, both or above in the 1986-1989 period included man-made and natural, have been common in Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania, CMte Africa and serve as current examples of the d'Ivoire, Congo, Mauritius, Swaziland, Gabon, fragility of agricultural development on this Sao Tome and Principe, Cape Verde, and the continent. Gambia (see Annex Table 3). Countries coming 24 Recent Performance of African Agriculture close to the 2,330 level are Burundi and Niger. Chad, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Malawi, Guinea, Good agricultural performance is not associated Togo, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Senegal, Kenya with higher levels of food security except in a and Angola. Most are countries which have few cases (Guinea-Bissau, Burundi, and Congo). been affected by extreme social and civil disrup- Poor agricultural growth certainly contributes to tion, in some cases drought, and in several cases poor food security, but higher growth does not extraordinarily poor agricultural and economic necessarily assure the reverse. With rare excep- policy. Two have been good agricultural per- tions such as COte d'Ivoire, smaller countries formers - Kenya and Togo. tend to provide better food security, partly due to easier access of imported food to a larger Natural Resources and the Environment portion of their population. Wealthier countries also do somewhat better in assuring food Partly as the result of an increasing rural security, suggesting the importance of ability to population searching for new farm land, defore- purchase food. station occurred at the rate of 3.7 million Annex Table 3 shows that average per capita hectares per year in the 1980s (World Resources daily caloric intake has stagnated or declined in Institute), out of a total area under forest in most of Sub-Saharan Africa since 1965. In con- Africa of 679 million hectares in 1980 (Annex trast, it has increased significantly in every Table 11). There is some indication that this is other part of the developing world except South accelerating. FAO recently estimated present Asia, where it only increased slightly. Per capita rates of destruction at 5 million ha per year caloric intake in South Asia still leads that in although this figure is tentative. Sub-Saharan Africa. Annex Table 3 shows seve- Countries with the highest rates of defore- ral African countries with sharp deterioration: station are shown in the following table: Table 2.3. Rate of Forest Destruction, 1980s (percent per annum) C6te d'Ivoire 5.2 Malawi 3.5 Burundi 2.7 Nigeria 2.7 Guinea-Bissau 2.7 Niger 2.6 Gambia, The 2.4 Mauritania 2.4 Liberia 2.3 Rwanda 2.3 Source: Draft data from African Indicators Project, World Resources Institute, 1991 (see Annex Table 11). 25 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank The balance of land area has been shifting to COte d'Ivoire, where the rate of deforestation cropping and non-agricultural land uses, and out has been the most rapid in Sub-Saharan Africa, of forests, woodland and wilderness. Annex there has been a strong and accelerating decline Table 9 shows agricultural land to have in mean annual rainfall at all monitoring stations expanded from 6 percent of SSA's land area in during the 1970s and 1980s; the dry savanna 1965 to 7 percent in 1987, which is a rate of has expanded southward from the northern part 0.7 percent per annum. Pasture land remained of the country through its middle towards the stable during this period at 27 percent. Forest Atlantic coast." Annual rainfall in Senegal has area declined from 33 to 30 percent while other decreased by 2.2 percent per annum over the uses expanded. Africa's original wildlife habitat past two decades, and there has been a sharp at the turn of the century has shrunk by 64 decrease in rainfall in northern Nigeria and percent to a little more than one-third of its Cameroon. o Statistics on mean rainfall original extent. througout Ethiopia also show a precipitous These figures have no meaning by them- decline during the same period." Although selves. But these changes have several costs. droughts are cyclical (see Annex Table 12 for First, the shrinkage of wildlife habitat and major drought periods), there is evidence that forests is threatening numerous plant and animal forest and vegetative destruction in the Sahel has species. The World Resources Institute's contributed to a long-term decline in rainfall, "African Indicators Project" has provided which supports the above statistics. estimates of threatened species in Africa. Some examples: 10 percent of COte d'Ivoire's mammals are presently threatened with extinc- Figure 1. Rainfall Deviation, 1900-87 tion, as are 0.8 percent of its birds. Zaire has the largest number of known species of mam- mals; nearly 6 percent are now threatened with 60 extinction. In Kenya, which has relatively well- 40_ protected parks, 4 percent of mammal species are threatened. The World Resources Institute 20- - estimates that 1,144 rare South African plant 0 '0- species are threatened." o. There is some evidence that deforestation .20-. _ negatively affects rainfall on a local basis, and may have a more extensive negative impact if 2 -40 -- - very widespread. The Sahel region has been the I object of meteorological monitoring and D 0 research which suggests increasing aridity during the last two decades.' The graph Year showing rainfall deviation from the 1900-1987 Source: Tucker et al., 1991. average is telling. It shows that the Sahel has always experienced wide variations in annual rainfall, but also that rainfall has been consistently and significantly below the long- Up to 80 percent of Africa's pasture land is term average every year since 1970.' at least partly degraded, as is up to 80 percent There have also been significant declines in of its cropland, according to the United Nations average rainfall in the coastal countries along Environment Programme (see Annex Table the Gulf of Guinea and in eastern Africa. In 14)." Soil erosion, which is a major result of 26 Rooent Performance of African Agriculture this degradation, is widespread. Virtually every below 10 percent. The 1991 and 1992 review by country in Africa has had localized studies the Africa Region of the ongoing agricultural indicating wide spread erosion (Annex Table 13 portfolio found that about 35 percent face summarizes a few). The Max Planck Institute serious problems which, if not resolved, will estimates that massive biomass burning is lead to project failure. The present World Bank occurring in Africa, including burning of commitment to agricultural projects in Sub- vegetation on farms before planting, burning of Saharan Africa, covering 182 projects," totals pastures to encourage new grasses for livestock, US$4.9 billion.* burning of forests to clear for farmland and for The most problematic sectors are, in order of purposes of hunting. This massive burning con- problems: fisheries (though only with two pro- tributes to the greenhouse effect by adding COz jects), tree crops, forestry, livestock, irrigation to the atmosphere. More important perhaps, is and drainage, and research. The least problema- the contribution of burning to localized deposi- tic are in order of least problems: agriculture tion of acid which inhibits growth of trees and sector operations, credit, and agroindustry. Area of aquatic organisms, and negatively affects soil development and agricultural sector investment fertility.13 are somewhere in between. These findings show The human costs of deforestation and some shift over time. environmental degradation are direct, through, There has been a remarkable deterioration in for example less timber to sell and less tree crops project performance, primarily related fuelwood available. Indirect effects include the to the extraordinarily low world prices for three additional burden on women and children who crops (see page 31), which has compromised the must walk further and pay more for fuel- financial and economic viability of many of wood." Reduced rainfall constrains agricul- these projects. Many tree crops projects are also ture. It is estimated that in the Sahel, yields of found in the CFA franc countries, where the sorghum (the staple crop) have declined at about overvalued real effective exchange rate has 1.5 percent per annum despite investment in compromised their financial viability. yield-increasing technology." A review of Research projects have serious performance average crop yields for cereals, roots and tubers problems, usually related to poor government in forty-one African countries (FAO data; management of public agriculture research Annex Tables 4 and 5), showed thirteen coun- institutions, underfunding reflecting the low tries registering declines in cereal yields and priority attached to research, competition fifteen registering declines in yields for roots between donors and the short-term nature of and tubers-this despite hundreds of millions of donor support, exclusion of the private sectors dollars of investment in agricultural research, and the neglect of cooperation between coun- extension, credit, input supply and equipment. tries. Extension projects are rated to have a very The main cause is a decline in rainfall and soil positive production impact. Bank studies of degradation, and the movement of an expanding extension projects recently completed in Kenya rural population on to land which is less suitable and Burkina Faso show very high economic for cultivation. rates of return (over 100 percent, see Chapter 6). These are among the most productive Performance of World Bank investments the Bank has financed in Africa. Agricultural Projects Overall, credit projects perform well because the few that are under way are done in conjunc- Audit reports of Bank agricultural projects tion with financial sector reform, and in some completed in Sub-Saharan Africa suggest a cases with nongovernmental institutions such as failure rate of about 50 percent, with failure cooperative banks. The conventional parastatal- defined as an economic rate of return (ERR) managed credit projects have been mostly aban- 27 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank doned. Agriculture sector operations are management by public sector institutions, low performing well because there is considerable cost recovery for services (water, veterinary, selectivity regarding the countries in which the logging concessions, fishing rights) which Bank will finance them. These are usually the encourages wasteful use of the resource, cost countries with the greatest commitment to over-runs (especially for irrigation), and little agricultural sector reform. Agro-industry pro- user participation in management of the re- jects do well because they are most frequently source. It is in these areas that the changes executed by private sector partners - which proposed in this agricultural strategy paper are operate relatively well and have simple most significant. The new strategic thrust of the commercial objectives. World Bank in these types of projects should The continued poor performance of projects greatly improve project performance in the relating to fisheries, irrigation and drainage, future, and is probably already responsible for forestry (though improved) and livestock the improvements in ongoing forestry and live- (though improved) is cause for concern. Most stock projects. often the problems are linked to ineffective Notes 1. Data is shown for each country in the statistical tables. The source is World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1992, and the World Bank's economic and social data bank (sourced in October 1992). It should be noted that the other important source of data, FAO production indexes, show somewhat different growth rates since output rather than value added is measured. However, FAO's overall output growth rate for SSA is about the same as that obtained by the World Bank using value added data. These various data, though the best available, are poor. Significantly better data collection is needed. Perhaps a better pooling of resources by the major gatherers of data would be more efficient than the present dispersion of efforts. 2. Rate of growth of agricultural value added in constant prices. Data is obtained from the World Bank's economic and social data bank, October 1992. Its original source is Bank staff, through country economic and agricultural reviews. 3. World Development Indicators, World Bank, 1992. 4. Recent estimates suggest that up to 40 percent of Africa's population is food-insecure; "Achieving Food Security in Africa," Africa Technical Department, Food Security Unit, World Bank, February 1992. 5. The information is derived from World Bank data published in World Development Indicators 1992; "Report of the Task Force on Food Security in Africa," Food Security Task Force, Africa Region, World Bank, June 30, 1988; and "Achieving Food Security in Africa," ibid. 6. Estimates of threatened species have been made by WRI in the "African Indicators Project". The data is reproduced in World Resources Institute (with UNEP and UNDP), World Resources 1992/1993, Oxford University Press, 1992. 28 Reoent Performance of African Agriculture 7. J.E. Gorse and D.R. Steeds, Desertification In the Sahelian and Sudanian Zones of West Africa, World Bank Technical Paper No. 61, June 1987. 8. C.J. Tucker, H.W. Dregne, W.W. Newcomb, "Expansion and Contraction of the Sahara Desert from 1980-1990", Science, Vol. 253, July 19, 1991, pp. 299-301. 9. Cote d'Ivoire Agriculture Sector Adjustment Operation, President's Report, Occidental Africa Department, World Bank, Washington D.C., October 1989. 10. Uma Lele (ed.), "Managing Agricultural Development in Africa. Lessons from Experience," Madia Discussion Paper 2, World Bank, Washington D.C., 1989. Uma Lele and Steven Stone "Population Pressure, the Environment and Agricultural Intensification: Variations on the Boserup Hypothesis,"Madia Discussion Paper 4, World Bank, Washington D.C., 1989. 11. Ethiopia: Agriculture - A Strategyfor Growth: Sector Review, Eastern Africa Department, Africa Region, World Bank, Washington D.C., March 25, 1987. 12. UNEP explains this as a problem of "desertification" which is a misnomer. The problem is soil and vegetative degradation. See Ridley Nelson, "Dryland Management: The Desertification Problem," World Bank Environment Department Working Paper No. 8, September 1988. See also FAO, The Conservation and Rehabilitation of Affican Lands: An International Scheme, ARC 190/4, Rome, 1990; FAO and United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Land Degradation and Food Supply, Issues and Options for Food Self-Sufficiency in Africa, Rome, 1992; and IFAD, Soil and Water Conservation In Sub- Saharan Africa, Rome, January 1992. 13. See Meinrat Andreae and Johann Goldammer "Tropical Wildland Fires and Other Biomass Burning: Environmental Impacts and Implications for Land-Use and Fire Management," in Kevin Cleaver and others (eds.), Conservation of West and Central African Rainforest, World Bank Environment Paper Number 1, Environment Department and Africa Technical Department, October 1992, pp. 79-100. 14. See Women and the Environmental Crisis, Report of the Proceedings of the Workshop on Women, Environment and Development, Nairobi, July 10-20, 1985, Environmental Liaison Center, Nairobi, 1985. 15. Peter J. Matlon, "Improving Productivity in Sorghum and Pearl Millett in Semi-Arid Africa," Food Research Institute Studies, Vol. XXII, No. 1, 1990. See also Francois Falloux and Aleki Mukendi, (eds)., "Desertification Control and Renewable Resource Management in the Sahelian and Sudanian Zones of West Africa," World Bank Technical Paper No. 70, January 1988. 16. Annual Review ofImplementation and Supervision: African Agriculture, FY92, Technical Department, Agriculture Division, Africa Region, World Bank, October 1992. Fiscal 29 A Strategy to Develop Agriculure in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Pocus for the World Bank Year 91 (FY91) runs from July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1991, and FY92 from July 1, 1991 to June 30, 1992. * One billion equals 1,000 million. 30 3. Objectives for Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa Growth of Production and Value Added alleviation and improved food security therefore require that rural people, particularly rural Agriculture remains the principal occupation of women and children, receive attention in the majority of people in Africa. An average 32 agricultural growth strategies. Furthermore, percent of GDP is produced by agriculture; the women are increasingly the main agricultural sector constitutes the largest productive sector in decision-makers as men migrate to towns and Africa. The analysis of the Bank's report cities, or to estates, looking for work. If entitled Sub-Saharan Africa from Crisis to agriculture is to grow at 4 percent per annum it Sustainable Growth, Long-Term Perspective will be increasingly women who are responsible Study, 1989, shows that economic growth of at for this growth." least 4 percent per annum in each African However, poverty alleviation and food country, which was the objective established, security involve more than just a certain rate of will require agricultural growth at the same agricultural growth. Even with agriculture level in most countries. This is because other growing at 4 percent per annum, Africa will productive sectors are relatively small. Without have great difficulty feeding itself if population agricultural growth at 4 percent per annum, the growth continues at over 3 percent per annum. generally most competitive industrial sector Case I in Table 3.1 which follows shows the (agro-industry) will not be supplied with the raw staggering food import requirements if present material to permit it to grow by its target rate of population and agricultural growth trends were 5 to 7 percent per annum. Analysis undertaken to continue. The food gap, even at the present for Sub-Saharan Africa found that agricultural low average per capita food consumption levels growth is the most important contributor to the (about 202 kg/cap/year), would increase from growth of manufacturing and services.' 10 million tons maize equivalent at present to 24 Agriculture is the major source of raw material million tons by the year 2000 and to 80 million for industry, is a main purchaser of simple tools tons twenty years later.' (farm implements), is a purchaser of services Without a reduction in aggregate population (farm mechanics, transport), and farmers are the growth rates, even sustained food production major consumers of consumption goods since gains of 4 percent annually would only represent they constitute the majority of the population an increase on a per capita basis of less than I and the employed. The analysis suggested that percent per annum. Even with unchanged a 1 percent growth in agriculture causes average consumption per capita, and with inter- economic growth of 1.5 times this amount due regional food trade completely liberalized to to the stimulus to industry, transport, and allow intra-African food movement from surplus services.' to deficit countries, aggregate food import requirements would therefore decline only Poverty Alleviation and Food Security slowly and would be eliminated entirely only in the year 2004 (Case II, Table 3.1). Surveys undertaken in much of Africa show Even in this scenario, average per capita that most of the poor are rural people.' Poverty availability of food would not increase. In the 31 Table 3.1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Population and Food Securty, 199o_2020 Scenarios 1990 2000 2010 2020 Care I Population (millions with total 494 664 892 1200 fertility rate remaining at projected levels)a Food production (million tons of 90 110 134 163 maize equivalent at current trend growth rate of 2 percent a year) Food consumption (million tons 100 134 181 243 with unchanged aveage per capita consumption) Food gap (million tons)c 10 24 47 so Case 11 Population (millions as in 494 664 892 1200 c a Food production (million tons at 4 90 133 197 292 percent annual growth) Food reuirement (million tons as in 100 134 181 243 case I) Food gap (million tons) 10 I -16 -49 Case III Population (millions, with total fertility 494 657 875 1169 rate declising by 50 percent by 2030) Food production (million tons at 90 110 134 163 2 percent annual growth) Food requirement (million 100 133 177 237 tons) Food gap (million tons) 10 23 43 74 Case IV Population (millions, with total fertility 494 657 875 1169 rate decliling by 50 percent by 2030) Food production (million tons at 90 133 197 292 4 percent annual growth) Food rquirement (million 100 133 177 237 tons) Food gap (million tons)c 10 0 -20 -55 Case V Population (with total fertility 494 657 875 1169 rate declining by 50 percent by 2030) Food production (million tons at 90 133 197 292 4 percent annual growth) Food requirement (million tons, with 100 144 210 280 rising per capita consumption) Food gap (million tons) 10 11 13 -12 a. Population growth at 3.0 percent per annum, as per Annex Table 1. b. Average of 2027 calories per person per day. c. Equals consumption requirement minus production; negative sign denotes production surplus. This equaled the cereal imports plus food aid in 1990. d. Target. e. Average per capita consumption rising to 2,200 calories per day by 2000 to 2,400 calories per day by 2010 and stabilizing at that level thereafter. Source: K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, The Population, Agriculture and Environment Nexus In Sub-Saharan 4Mca, Agriculture and Rural Development Series No. 1, Technical Department, Africa Region, World Bank, 1992. 32 Objectives for Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa absence of distributional changes there would be thereby lowered to about 2.3 percent per annum no change in the percentage of Africans who are by the year 2025. In addition, this objective will malnourished and facing food insecurity, but a not be attained unless the growth in agriculture substantial annual increase in their absolute is equitably distributed over the population, number. A scenario of unchanged average per benefiting urban dwellers as well through capita food availability would imply, therefore, commodity price decline and greater abundance. that in the year 2020, over a quarter of all For this reason, the food security objective people in Sub-Saharan Africa would still be must be addressed through measures additional facing food insecurity. to the growth of agricultural production and The importance of making rapid progress in reduction of population growth rates. People reducing population growth becomes even more unable to produce enough of their own food can apparent, therefore, when the closely-related obtain food security by generating income objectives of improving nutritional standards outside agriculture with which to buy imported and food security are taken into consideration. food. Labor-intensive public works programs Average daily calorie intake in Africa should be which employ poor people, providing either increased from its present very low level of cash or food for work have been found to be 2,027 calories per person to about 2,200 by the effective. In cases of drought and civil strife, end of the century and to 2,400 (i.e., the food aid will continue to be important for both current average for the world's low-income urban and rural populations.! Poor people will countries) by the 2010. Case V depicts this need nutrition improvement programs to scenario. Since aggregate food consumption increase their food intake. Preparation for requirements would rise sharply, even sustained drought emergencies, and action in such growth in food production averaging 4 percent emergencies as is now being provided in per year and a steady decline in the rate of Southern Africa and in Northeast Africa, will population growth to 2.3 percent per annum continue to be important to assure food security during the decade 2010-2030 (implying a in transitory crises. A Bank study (interim continuous reduction, beginning immediately, of report) entitled "Food Security and Disasters: A the TFR over the next four decades to half its Framework for Action" found that the cost to present level), the food gap would remain at Africa of droughts has been very high; roughly its present level of about 10 million estimated at $5 billion during the 1980s, and an tons per annum until 2010 and would not be additional $2 billion in relief costs.' This study closed until about the year 2015. The potential showed that in 1983 and 1984 twenty-four food surplus which might gradually emerge countries in Sub-Saharan Africa suffered from thereafter under the assumption of static average drought resulting in imports of 5.3 million tons calorie intake would presumably not materialize of grain. In 1992, most of Southern Africa is because consumption levels would increase suffering from drought and the grain shortfall above the 2,400 cal/cap/day level that typifies will amount to about 10 million tons. Clearly present average conditions in the developing food aid, and balance of payments assistance to world. buy food, will be necessary to confront these It is clear that even with 4 percent annual situations now and in the future. Preparing for growth in food production, the important drought, including the preparation of contin- objective of bringing the percentage of the gency plans, will be a part of national food population subject to food insecurity down to security strategies. zero over the next three decades cannot be Food self-sufficiency is not a useful objective achieved, at the aggregate level, unless compared to food security because it does not population fertility rates are reduced by 50 admit that food security will in most cases be percent and the population growth rate is best achieved by some combination of expanded 33 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank production of food crops, export crops, other to be abundant for a great many years, such as cash crops, and non-agricultural production. in Zambia and the Central African Republic. Food self-sufficiency, even if achieved in a Technology which is neutral in its additional use particular country, will not necessarily assure of various factors (by for example providing adequate food to most people in the country. more output at existing levels of capital, labor, The emphasis on food self-sufficiency has also and lan use) should be a focus in all countries. led to another distortion. IFPRI has found that In many areas of abundant labor as well as most developing countries either manage a scarce labor, animal-drawn equipment will be combination of growth of both cash cropping useful because it is so much more efficient than and food production, or fail to manage either.' manual labor that land productivity gains are IFPRI shows that commercialization of agri- substantial. Often, there are peak seasonal labor culture through cash cropping is associated with requirements that create a bottleneck in increased income, increased expenditure on production. Technological changes which food, and improved nutrition. alleviate these bottlenecks (which increase labor productivity in these periods of peak labor Employment Creation demand) will be important contributors to agricultural growth in most countries. Despite With the total labor force growing at close to the need for agriculture to absorb labor at about 3 percent in SSA, agriculture will have to 2 percent per annum, an agricultural growth rate absorb incremental labor, since industry and of 4 percent per annum implies the need to private sector services will not be able to absorb increase labor productivity by 2 percent per a large percentage of the incremental labor force annum, still a daunting task. for at least the next two decades. Agriculture has been absorbing labor at the rate of about 2.5 Natural Resource Management percent increase per annum. In the future, projections suggest that agriculture will have to Chapter 2 illustrated that forest destruction expand employment by at least 2 percent per and soil degradation negatively affects rainfall, annum, even with population growth rates destroys wildlife, and reduces soil fertility and falling, and with continued rural-urban migra- crop yields in many countries. The major cause tion. o of this destruction is the combination of shifting A source of dispute in the literature of cultivation, slash and burn agriculture, and agricultural development is the ability of the destructive logging practices. Solutions will agricultural sector to absorb labor at such a rate. involve the progressive elimination of all of Agricultural mechanization elsewhere in the these practices. This will require the world has reduced labor input. But in Africa, sedentarization of farmers (inducing farmers, the unprecedented growth rate of population and though not pastorialists, to avoid shifting by the labor force will keep labor costs down and helping them to intensity agriculture and by labor will become increasingly abundant. With increasing land tenure security). It will also capital scarce and costly, and land increasingly require improved management of logging and scarce, relative factor prices will encourage fuelwood gathering. Good environmental labor-intensive agriculture. Agricultural research protection requires good agricultural and which is responsive to demand should be forestry practice. Good agricultural practice focusing on labor-intensive technologies in this from an environmental perspective must be situation, both to respond to future demand, and made identical to good agricultural practice to contribute to employment creation in agricul- from a growth and poverty alleviation ture. Of course, labor-intensive technology perspective. This can only be achieved by rapid should not be the focus where labor is not likely agricultural intensification (greater output per 34 Objectives for Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa unit land area), growth in labor productivity as growth objective for each country can be indicated earlier, minimum capital and financial obtained only with widespread success in policy outlay due to capital scarcity, widely distributed reform, rapid development and adoption of over the population." In the few African coun- improved agricultural technology, much in- tries which will continue to have unused agricul- creased investment in agriculture and agro- tural land despite rapid population increases and industry by the private sector, rapid infra- agricultural policy improvements (such as Zam- structure development, greatly improved health bia and the Central African Republic), a greater and education services in the rural areas, and premium will have to be placed either on en- conservation of natural resources. Africa lags couraging immigration from more densely popu- far behind other developing countries in fer- lated areas, or on the introduction of labor- tilizer use, irrigation, and in crop yields. 'Tere saving technologies including mechanization. is therefore a large potential for expansion, to Mechanization should begin with animal-drawn catch up. It will not be achieved in those equipment. The situation of land abundance will African countries undergoing civil disturbance, be increasingly rare in Africa. nor in countries which fail to implement these actions. That it can be achieved is indicated by Are the Objectives Feasible? the fact that ten African countries have appro- ximately achieved it in the late 1980s and early The preceding combination of objectives will 1990s, though with considerable annual fluctua- be extremely difficult to achieve. Projections of tions (page 23). Despite the potential and the agricultural growth in most African countries validity of the target, many African countries are lower than the 4 percent per annum target will not be able to achieve this rate of increase set in this document. FAO has projected of agricultural output. For most of these agricultural growth in SSA as a whole at slightly countries the prognosis cannot be anything but more than 3 percent per annum. A continuation bleak unless an even more difficult transfor- of the present approximate 2 percent per annum mation occurs in population fertility, or there is long-term growth rate would not be an a miraculous growth of non-agriculturally unreasonable average projection. The 4 percent related industry. Notes 1. S. Haggblade, P. Hazell, J. Brown, "Farm-Non-Farm Linkages in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Vol. 17, No. 8, 1989. 2. S. Haggblade and others, ibid. 3. This is the finding in the Living Standards Measurement Surveys and in the surveys undertaken under the Social Dimensions of Adjustment Project, Poverty Division, Africa Technical Department, Africa Region, World Bank. 4. See The Population, Agriculture and Environment Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa, Agriculture and Rural Development Series No. 1, Technical Department, Africa Region, World Bank, May 1992, for a discussion of women's pre-eminent role in African agriculture. See also Nadine Hornstein, "Women and Food Security in Kenya,", World Bank, PPR Working Paper 232, June 1989; FAO, "Women in Developing Agriculture, Women In Agriculture, No. 4, 1985. 35 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank 5. K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, ibid. The population projections account for the projected impact of AIDS on increased mortality. 6. The TFR is the total fertility rate, or the total number of children the average woman has in a lifetime. 7. See "Achieving Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa", op. cit., February 1992, p. 38 for an interesting presentation of the various elements which can be incorporated into a food security strategy. It is apparent that all actions which increase incomes, especially of the poor, from policy change to investment, will contribute to improved food security. See also FAO, Land, Food, and People, Rome, 1984. 8. Prepared by the Food Security Unit, Poverty and Social Policy Division, Africa Technical Department, World Bank, February 7, 1992. 9. J. von Braun and E. Kennedy, "Commercialisation of Subsistence Agriculture Income and Nutritional Effects in Developing Countries," IFPRI Working Papers on Commercialisation of Agriculture and Nutrition, No. 1, Washington, D.C., 1986. 10. K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, The Population, Agriculture, Environment Nexus In Sub- Saharan Africa, op. cit. 11. This is the thesis of K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, ibid. 36 4. The Constraints to Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa World Markets and Prices balance Africa's share of the world market for primary agricultural commodities has declined. A frequently cited constraint to achievement of The single increase in Africa's share is tea the preceding objectives is the lack of markets (Africa's share of the world's sugar and coarse and low world prices for most agricultural and grain production has also increased very agro-industrial products from Africa. A good slightly). barometer of potential markets is the past and The commodity price booms of the 1970s projected situation of international market and early 1980s are unlikely to be repeated. The prices, shown in the following table. Prices projections above and in the first paragraph of have declined real terms in the 1980s, in some this chapter suggest virtually no improvement in cases significantly. In each case, although there world prices for most commodities produced in are some annual fluctuations, the declines have Sub-Saharan Africa by 1995. Commodities for been progressive from 1980 to 1991. which some (usually modest) improvements are The causes of decline in international prices expected by the year 2000 include coffee, have been a combination of (a) growth of pro- cocoa, tea, sugar, beef, maize, cotton, rubber duction at a faster rate than growth in interna- and logs. Most fruit and vegetable prices, tional demand, (b) subsidies of export crops by though not all, will continue to be relatively industrial countries, including sugar, cereals, solid. vegetable oils, and beef, which reduce interna- These projections face Asia, Latin America tional prices for these commodities by stimulat- and the rest of the world as much as Africa. ing oversupply, (c) the development of substi- Those countries which have taken Africa's tute products in a few cases such as sugar has share, even in the low international price situa- expanded supply, reducing international prices. tion characteristic of the late 1980s, have bene- In a situation of rapidly-declining real prices, fited handsomely. Those African agro-industries only the most competitive or the most subsi- which have restructured, increased efficiency dized producers can continue to operate. Cutting and cut costs to survive in the exceptionally bad the costs of producing and processing primary years of the late 1980s and early 1990s, also did commodities has become common in the 1980s. well, and should continue to do well as real Africa has not been immune from this cost- world prices stagnate or increase slowly. Many cutting. Successful African examples include the African countries have extremely low produc- cotton industry in many of the Francophone tion costs (low and declining labor costs), closer countries of West Africa, the rubber industry in access to European markets than Asian and COte d'Ivoire, the sugar industry in Mauritius, Latin American competitors, special trade rela- Kenya's tea industry and Ghana's cocoa produc- tions with some European countries, and sympa- tion (see more of an explanation of these suc- thetic donor agencies ready to invest in cost- cesses on page 43). In these cases, market share cutting and improved efficiency. African enter- could be maintained, or increased. However, prises could therefore capture enough of the most of African agro-industry and agriculture projected expansion in world demand in a low- has not been able to restructure fast enough to price competitive environment to contribute keep up with non-African competitors, and on handsomely to agricultural growth. 37 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Table 4.1. Commodity Prices in Constant 1985 Dollars Projection Commodity 1970 1980 1991 1995 2000 Coffee US Cents/kg 314 328 126 132 165 Cocoa US Cents/kg 185 248 80 85 94 Tea US Cents/kg 300 213 124 134 136 Sugar US Dollars/Mt 222 602 133 152 175 Beef US Cents/kg 357 263 179 178 196 Bananas US Dollars/Mt 452 361 376 315 284 Oranges US Dollars/Mt 460 372 350 315 300 Rice US Dollars/Mt 394 414 211 178 197 Maize US Dollars/Mt 160 119 72 67 83 Palm Oil US Dollars/Mt 711 556 228 235 208 Cotton US Cents/kg 173 195 113 111 115 Rubber US Cents/kg 127 155 68 85 89 Logs (Sapelli) US Cents/cm 118 240 213 222 242 Source: World Bank, "Revision of Primary Commodity Price Forecasts and Quarterly Review of Commodity Markets - April 1992," International Economics Department, May 1, 1992. Table 4.2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Present and Projected Share of Primary Agricultural Commodities African Share of World Production Projected Growth in World Demand 1969/71 1989 1989-2005 Commodiy (%) (%) (% per annum) Coffee 32 21 1.0 Cocoa 72 59 2.4 Tea 12 17 2.0 Sugar 7 8 1.9 Bananas 6 3 1.5 Citrus Fruit 10 8 2.9 Rice 2 2 2.5 Coarse Grains 7 8 1.8 Palm Oil 55 14 6.0 Groundnuts 32 18 2.4 Cotton 11 7 1.0 Rubber 7 7 2.0 Source: Price Prospects for Major Primary Commodities; Agricultural Products, Fertilizers, and Tropical 77mber, Volume II, International Economics Department, World Bank, December 1990. The proof that Africa can compete is that (SAPH), the British-American Tobacco many African enterprises have done it, even company; African tobacco companies in Malawi though, on aggregate, most have not. Most and Zimbabwe; Kenya's private tea and coffee enterprises that have done well are private. estates; Mauritius's sugar industry, mixed These include such diverse enterprises as the ownership cotton companies in West Africa, COte d'Ivoire mixed ownership rubber company Kenya's few private cotton companies; private 38 The Constraints to Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa maize producers and traders throughout Africa; presented in the following text which focus on the horticulture industry in Kenya, Zimbabwe creating policy environments conducive to the and South Africa; private cocoa producers in profitability of private commercial agriculture. C6te d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Equa- This is vital in providing incentives for private torial Guinea, and Nigeria's food crop pro- investment in agriculture and processing. Public ducers. sector agricultural, agro-industrial, marketing, Many more African enterprises will have to and input supply enterprises have not generally perform with the better ones to permit Africa to been able to compete in competitive markets. recapture some of its lost market share, if Africa's agricultural exports and imports Improved Agricultural Technologies Have substitutes are to grow at 4 percent per annum Not Come Fast Enough to Africa in a liberal trade and exchange rate environ- ment. This is because world demand for Most of the approximate 2 percent per Africa's agricultural products is projected to annum average agricultural growth in SSA over increase more slowly than 4 percent (see the last the past thirty years has been due to the column of Table 4.2). Domestic demand is expansion of cultivated area (at about 0.7 likely to increase at about 4 percent per annum percent per annum on average; Annex Table 9) due in part to high population growth, but on which an increasing agricultural population domestic production must compete with world (at about 2.5 percent per annum) has used production for domestic markets as well. traditional farming methods. There has also Several factors could further improve the been some expansion of irrigation in a few competitive situation of African agriculture and countries, such as Sudan, Swaziland, Somalia, agro-industry. Growth of food production Nigeria, and Madagascar, which has contributed outside of Africa may slacken as the Green to this 2 percent per annum growth rate. But Revolution slows, as the scope for irrigation irrigation covers only 4 percent of cultivated expansion shrinks, as the intensity of farm input area in SSA (Annex Table 8). This compares to use declines in response to the degradation of 44 percent in China and 26 percent in India. the natural resource base in many areas of the Fertilizer use has remained remarkably low in world, and as farm subsidies in industrial Sub-Saharan Africa; on average 8.9 kilograms countries decline. Already accustomed to a low per hectare compared to 262 kilograms per input and largely unsubsidized agriculture, hectare in China and 68.7 kilograms per hectare African agriculture's position on world markets in India (1989-90, Annex Table 8). The would improve. On the other hand, technology knowledge-based revolution in agriculture, improvement leading to better and cheaper which was the basis of agricultural development products is likely to continue to be much further elsewhere in the world, was not brought to advanced in the industrial countries and in Asia. Africa to a significant enough degree. This Africa will have trouble keeping up inability to keep up technologically is, with technologically. African agricultural strategies policy failure, a major reason for the loss in must be responsive to opportunities. African market shares described previously. Responsiveness to domestic and external market To understand this failure requires scrutiny demand (which changes rapidly), to the of the elements which caused the Green development of new products and processes, Revolution in Asia. The Green Revolution and to the acquisition of technological began with important scientific innovations in improvements which increase efficiency and cut wheat and rice production. It was stimulated by costs are likely to be critical for Africa. four factors.' The first was the development of These various factors have contributed demand for yield-enhancing technology by significantly to the strategic concerns to be Asian farmers themselves, desiring to intensify 39 A Strategy to Develop Agricukure in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank production to confront increasing land scarcity measures (inter-cropping, multi-story cropping, due to population increases. Where Green use of mulches and vegetation or livestock to Revolution technology took off, shifting maintain fertility etc.). In these places more cultivation had long been abandoned due to intensive production, sometimes based on higher population increases. Second, the prices of yielding varieties, was successful (for example, fertilizer necessary for the production of the maize in the Kenya highlands). The system of new cereal varieties in Asia declined relative to shifting cultivation was also replaced by more wheat and rice prices. Third, research modern farming methods among "progressive" institutions in several industrial countries had farmers in many African countries. Even before already introduced varietal improvements in their countries gained independence, some cereals which could be adapted to the African farmers were quick to take up improved development of new varieties suitable for Asia. agricultural practices. These farmers often had Finally, the new Asian varieties proved some education, or worked in contact with a extremely responsive in irrigated areas, which modem sector. The modern sector often were large and expanding in much of Asia. consisted of large foreign- or state-owned The situation in SSA was different in every plantations, and in a few cases, the farms of respect. The traditional shifting cultivation and European settlers. For example, a minority of pastoral livestock systems common throughout smallholders have grown coffee and tea in Africa were well adapted to a situation of low Kenya for several decades, commodities population density. The key to maintaining introduced and originally monopolized by environmental and agricultural equilibrium was European settlers. The academic literature of the mobility. People shifted to a different location 1960s and 1970s referred to this situation as when soil fertility declined or forage for "dualism", and it still applies in much of SSA.' livestock was depleted. This allowed the fertility However, the limited nature of the modern part of the land to be reconstituted through natural of these dualistic agricultural societies is vegetative growth and decay. For field reflected in the extremely low average fertilizer cropping, shifting cultivation typically involved use in SSA, as reported previously. Fertilizer is farming a piece of land for two to four years, a key ingredient in all modern agricultural followed by ten to twenty-five years in which systems because all impose heavy nutrient the land was left fallow. As long as population demands on soils. growth was slow and land remained available, The situation of abundant land for a limited additional people could be accommodated by population is changing fast in SSA. New land gradually bringing more land into the farming for cultivation has become increasingly scarce in cycle. Intensification was unnecessary, and many countries due to rapid population growth. African farmers did not demand the new Large areas of forests, wetlands, river valley technologies which permitted greater output per bottoms and grassland savanna have been unit land area as did Asian farmers. This was a converted to farmland. On average, per capita reason for the widespread failure in introducing arable land declined from 0.5 hectare per person such technology. in 1965, to 0.2 hectare per person in 1987, This system was modified slowly in those compared to 0.2 hectare in India (Annex Table places where population density increased. For 10). In many areas, rural people are example, in the Kenya highlands, Rwanda and increasingly compelled to remain on the same parts of Nigeria, where population density parcel of land due to the lack of availability of increased slowly to relatively high levels, unoccupied land and yet they retain their shifting cultivation slowly disappeared. It was traditional farming methods. Many parts of displaced by permanent agricultural systems Africa suffer particularly difficult agricultural which included traditional soil maintenance conditions related to poor soil fertility and 40 The Constraints to Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa structure, and highly variable rainfall. This areas, making rainfed agriculture highly risky. could be compensated for to some extent when As the rainfall duration has shortened, the food there was substantial space to shift to when soil crop cultivars grown by farmers have been fertility was exhausted but space is increasingly subjected to post-flowering drought, resulting in constrained. As a result, the pressure on farmers lower yields. Also, early season and mid-season to intensify farming is increasing rapidly, yet drought can create serious problems. Under the evolution to more intensive farming systems these uncertain circumstances, farmers based on science and technology is relatively frequently hesitate to use purchased inputs for slow. Why? yield increase. The reasons have been set out in the last * Fourth, in most of Africa, there has been fifteen years in a vast amount of economic and a tendency for governments to crush individual agricultural literature. A review of some of that initiative at the farm and enterprise level by literature reveals the following.' setting agricultural product prices too low, and * First, the rate of relevant technological by maintaining overvalued exchange rates which innovation has been slow, providing only effectively reduce the price of agricultural limited technology which is adoptable by exports and agricultural products which compete African farmers. This is caused by weak with imports. Annex Table 7 shows the ratio of agricultural research and extension. Irrigated producer prices to international prices for major areas which were excellent users of new commodities in each African country. In the agricultural technologies in Asia were not vast majority of cases, African farmers have developed significantly in Sub-Saharan Africa, received only a fraction of the world price.' and where developed, were nearly universally Most recently, this situation has become much poorly managed. Inherent soil and water worse as world prices for most agricultural constraints to expanded agricultural production commodities produced in Africa have fallen (as using imported technology were not adequately shown in Table 4.1). considered in Africa. * Fifth, ill-conceived public agricultural * Second, the poor state of roads, projects contributed to the stagnation. Autono- telecommunications, and posts throughout SSA mous farmers organizations and cooperatives, has created high transport costs, so that modem and farmer participation in the management of farm inputs are costly at the farmgate, compared agricultural development was actively dis- to much of Asia, for example. Crops produced couraged. for sale are also often expensive to market * Sixth, inadequate rural health, rural water, because of high transport costs. Related to this family planning, and educational facilities have has been a heavy urban bias in most African resulted in a high incidence of relatively public expenditure and policy regimes which has unhealthy, poorly-educated people in rural tended to focus transport infrastructure areas, expanding in numbers at a high rate. expenditures in large mega-cities which have AIDS is becoming an increasingly significant, little trade with rural areas, and which are even in rural areas. Such people are less likely dependent on imports. Secondary towns, which than better-educated, healthy people whose are collection markets for agricultural products, numbers are expanding at a lower rate, to distribution points for farm inputs and places in innovate in agriculture and in agro-processing. which farmers children could seek secondary The result of all of these factors has been education, have often been neglected. that the rate of technological change in * Third, during the last twenty years rainfall agriculture has not been able to keep up with has considerably declined in the drier parts of population growth. Africa south of the Sahara and the duration of Given these constraints, it could be expected the rainy season has been reduced in many that rational farmers and livestock owners would 41 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank avoid the risks attendant upon more modern Ba 4.1. Women in Agricatkire agriculture. Markets managed by governments were not assured, modern inputs even if In Zambia, women in farm households headed understood were not always available, or were by males contribute more hours daily than the not so effective on some African soils and in men to farm work (8.5 hours vs. 7.4 hours) as well as to non-agricultural tasks (5 hours vs. 1.1 some rainfall regimes. Prices were often poor. hours). In Botswana, a 1984 study found women Another factor which has only been realized contributing almost 70 percent of the value of recently involves the role of women in crop production, but receiving the benefit of less agriculture. African women traditionally bore than 15 percent of national agricultural outlays. most of the responsibility for food production, According to a 1979 census in Kenya, 33 fuelwood gathering, water collection, and percent of all rural smallholder households were headed by women. Further, it was reported that household duties. In traditional society this women provide three-fourth of the labor on worked well, as men had clearly defined and smallholdings and actually manage about two- important roles for the maintenance of family, fifths of these holdings. In Congo, about 70 village, clan and/or tribe. However, as percent of the farm holdings are managed by population density on farmland has increased, women, as the result of significant male migration to jobs in the cities. Similar migration with the consequent increase in soil degradation is reported on a large scale in Lesotho and and deforestation, the demands on women have Zambia. increased (see Box 4.1). It is more difficult for women to maintain the required food production Note: Tese examples and others are developed in ysmaller pieces of land. As K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, The Populadon, on increasingly smallrAgiculure, Enironmen Neus in Sub-Saharan forests recede, women must walk further for Oca, op. ci. wood. As rainfall decreases and water becomes scarcer, women must walk further for water as well. Increased work burdens on women make owned by the state or by private enterprises, it difficult for them to apply the labor needed to and farms owned by the elite. Both of these intensify agriculture. The time constraint faced phenomena have reduced the traditional security by women has not been factored into agricul- of land tenure. Farmers who are unsure that the tural research and extension.' In fact, most land they farm will belong to them or can be agricultural research neglects the gender element used by them in the future are less likely to in farming and many extension systems neglect invest in the land or conserve it. This women altogether. exacerbates environmental problems. Much A final factor explaining the failure of the African land has become open-access to anyone, Green Revolution in Africa involves changing encouraging land exploitation of the mining land tenure systems. Traditional African land sort. Open-access land tenure has also encour- tenure systems provide considerable security of aged the mining of fuelwood, taken as a free tenure on land brought into farming through good for consumption on farms and in cities. In customary rules of community land ownership, this situation, there is no incentive to plant and allocation of use rights to members of the wood for fuel, until transport costs from in- community.' However, considerable rural-rural creasingly distant wood sources to urban mar- migration has occurred in Africa. Some of this kets become high enough to justify peri-urban migration has been from one country to the planting. Although this planting is happening next, but much is within countries. Migrants around some African cities and in very densely often come with conflicting traditions of land populated areas, its scale is not adequate to allocation. In addition, many governments have arrest the mining of open access forests. nationalized land. Some of this land is In these circumstances, the common failure distributed for other uses, such as plantations of yield-enhancing agricultural technologies is 42 The Constraints to Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa no surprise. To this day, most donor projects maintain relatively high agricultural growth endeavor through combinations of credit, exten- rates (see Tables 2.1 and 2.2). sion, research and integrated rural development, Some of the elements of success in the coun- to introduce agricultural technologies, many of tries with good agricultural performance are be- which are inappropriate or ill-adapted, in part coming more common. First, the policy adjust- due to the continuation of the constraints listed ment process in Africa is underway, and there here. is hope that the price and marketing distortions In those few African countries where which rendered technological innovation in agri- population densities have increased greatly, culture both unprofitable and risky, will be where road infrastructure has been improved, eliminated in many countries. The progressive where agricultural research and extension reduction in such distortions is indicated in systems work reasonably well, and where Annex Table 7, where the ratio of producer agricultural product and input prices are not price to international price of important agri- excessively distorted by government policy, new cultural commodities has been increasing over agricultural technologies have been introduced time. The growing democratization process in by farmers. The best-known example is hybrid Africa, which will give rural people more maize in Kenya and Zimbabwe. These are influence in government and a greater participa- countries which also happen to have relatively tory role in local efforts, will help sustain this more secure land tenure systems and excellent reform process. Second, with a better policy en- agricultural extension. Another is the cotton- vironment, investment in rural infrastructure can maize package introduced by the French cotton bring down input costs considerably. Eliminat- company CFDT throughout Francophone West ing public sector monopolies for input supply Africa. A third example involves tobacco and loosening foreign exchange and licensing introduced by the British-American Tobacco restrictions on the import of farm inputs will be Company in several African countries. A fourth extremely helpful. Third, a serious effort at is rubber in C6te d'Ivoire. Most interesting strengthening agricultural research and extension from the perspective of poor farmers are the throughout the continent is vital. The SPAAR improved farming practices incorporating soil initiative, as well as efforts to strengthen conservation measures introduced by large agricultural extension, are important in this numbers of farmers in Burkina Faso, assisted by regard." Just increasing fertilizer use from the the national agricultural extension service. These presently low levels common is SSA (Annex examples, and others, indicate that African Table 8) will have a significant impact. Fourth, farmers respond like Asian farmers, if all the although irrigation potential is limited in Africa, elements which permit a positive response are there is potential in some countries. For available. Unfortunately, the examples in which example, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Somalia and the elements are in place for technology Niger have untapped irrigation potential. Better adoption have been rare in Africa. on-farm water management is possible in much of Africa. Ffth, it is possible to expand the Providing Agricultural Technology in Africa: production of high-value agricultural products, The Future which will stimulate growth of agricultural value added. There is tremendous potential for fruit Putting the conditions in place for stimulating and vegetable production for export and domes- technological improvements in African agricul- tic markets, for livestock production (mostly for ture is the major challenge facing Africans and domestic markets), and cereal production to the international community for the next decade. replace imports. These diverse high-value com- There are reasons for hope, specifically in the modities can be added to lower-value roots and recent success of a few African countries to tubers in African farming systems, both by 43 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank planting on new land, and by switching land to lack of profitability in introducing it, or inability the production of high-value crops, while ex- to introduce it due to other burdens (on women panding yields of traditional crops. Efficiency- farmers, for example) as discussed. In the increases in traditional crops can also improve future, however, they will increasingly need this competitiveness in world markets, enabling technology to survive and to expand commercial Africa to maintain or even expand market share. production in response to an improving policy None of this requires breakthroughs in funda- environment and declining land resources. The mental agriculture research. All of it requires best technology in the past, from the farmer's considerable adaptive research and extension, perspective, which was low-input traditional the right policy environment and investment. technology due to the many constraints identi- The filling of the technological gap will be fled, will not be the best technology in the assisted by the inevitably increased density of future if the constraints are removed. African population on agricultural land. This stimulus to farmers will respond. Asia's Green Revolution is now arriving in To achieve the objectives for agriculture set much of Africa, and has already arrived in out in Chapter 3 requires that each of the pro- places like Rwanda, the Kenya highlands, and blems described in this chapter be addressed. Central Nigeria. When there is no land to shift There will be variation between countries in the to, Africans settle on a piece of land, which severity of each problem, and in the adaptation becomes the family farm. The need to add ferti- of the strategy to solve it. These adaptations lity to the soil, and to get more output from the must be worked out. However, the action plan area farmed, becomes as much an imperative in to deal with these issues will incorporate the Africa as it did in Asia. This is a powerful in- elements set out in the following chapter. The centive to innovate. In the past, shifting cultiva- action plan is comprehensive and the perspective tors often did not demand the new technology is that of an average African country, not that of introduced by research and extension. They a donor. For each priority, the experience to either did not need it, or could not use it profit- date, and illustrations of successful efforts, are ably due to the inadequacy of the technology, given. Notes 1. This discussion summarizes an analysis of the causes of the Green Revolution in Asia by Yerjiro Hayami and Kewiro Otsuka, "Beyond the Green Revolution: Agricultural Development Strategy into the New Century", a paper presented at the Airlie House conference on Agricultural Technology, World Bank, October 1991. 2. Dualism is the co-existence of "modern" and "traditional" sectors in the same industry, in this case agriculture. 3. For a summary of this literature, see K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, The Population, Agriculture, Environment Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa, op. cit.; and Blackie and Lynam, "The Africa Challenge", paper presented at the Airlie House conference on Agricultural Technology, World Bank, October 1991. 4. For an interesting analysis, see William Jaeger, "The Effects of Economic Policies on African Agriculture", World Bank Discussion Papers, No. 147, Africa Technical Department, April 1992. 44 The Constraints to Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa 5. K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, op. cit. 6. Shem Migot-Adhola, Peter Hazell, Benoit Blarel and Frank Place, "Land Tenure Security and Agricultural Production in Sub-Saharan Africa" in L. Richard Meyers, (ed.), Innovation in Resource Management: Proceedings of the Ninth Agricultural Symposium, World Bank, October 1989, pp. 105-119. 7. SPAAR is the Special Program for African Agricultural Research, described in Chapter 6. The Bank has a major initiative to develop agricultural extension capacity in Africa, discussed subsequently. 45 PART II The Strategy 5. Creating an Appropriate Policy Environment for Pfivate Sector Farming, Agricultural Marketing, Processing and Credit Creating an Enabling Policy Environment notably in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Angola. Where policy is good or improving, performance of The most important problem facing agriculture agriculture is also good or improving. Notable in SSA is the continued inadequacy of macro- present examples in the late 1980s and early economic and agricultural policy in most 1990s are Benin, Burkina Faso, Tanzania, African countries, although there is great Nigeria, Mauritius, Uganda, and Guinea-Bissau. variation between countries, and considerable Kenya and Togo have also had consistently good change is under way. In African countries with agricultural policy and performance, though relatively "good" economic and agricultural there has been deterioration recently. policy in the late 1970s and early 1980s, 63 The agricultural policy performance of most percent of Bank agricultural projects audited by African countries will have to improve consider- the World Bank's Operations Evaluation Depart- ably if agricultural targets are to be met. The ment were evaluated as successful in the 1991 Africa Region of the World Bank has launched review of Project Performance Audit Reports. a regional study of the impact of economic Only 30 percent of agricultural projects in very initial scrutiny, it appears that though African countries having relatively "bad" positive in its impact to date, the agricultural economic and agricultural policy were success- supply response to adjustment has been slower ful.' than anticipated. Adjusting countries have The nature of poor policy differs. In the agricultural sectors growing over a wide range most extreme case where war is raging (such as in the 1980s with averages as shown in Table Sudan, Ethiopia, Liberia, Mozambique and 5.2.2 Somalia) agricultural performance suffers Only 28 percent of the adjustment operations greatly, or collapses entirely. In many of the started before 1985 and so the acceleration in CFA franc countries of Western and Central agricultural growth of intensively adjusting Africa, the overvalued real effective exchange countries in most recent years seems to suggest rate, a continued (though decreasing) heavy agricultural responsiveness to adjustment when hand of agricultural marketing and price con- it is seriously implemented. Unfortunately, trols, inefficient agricultural parastatals, a behind the averages lies a broad range of collapsed banking sector, and poorly-conceived results, with a few adjusting countries doing public expenditure programs are the main poorly. In addition, some of the good constraints. The result is a lack of private performance of the intensively adjusting investment in agriculture, agricultural countries appears to be due to factors in addition marketing, processing and input supply. to policy reform, such as better research and Remarkably, similar policy problems exist in extension, better rural infrastructure, and better many countries to various degrees, but most governance in general. 49 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Pocus for the World Bank Table 5.1. African Agricultural Growh Rates In Response to Adjustment (per annum) 1980-90 1987-90 13 Intensively adjusting countries in the 1987-1990 2.7 3.7 period 15 Adjusting, but less intensively in the 1987-1990 2.7 2.2 period 5 Non-adjusting Negative 0.5 13 Outside sample No data No data Note: Intensively-adjustingcountries include Cte d'lvoirm, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritania, Mauritius, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Togo, and Zambia. Lass intensive-adjusting countries include Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Congo, Gabon, the Gambia, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, Somalia. Sudan, Zaire, and Zimbabwe. Countries which did not receive adjustment lending included Botswana, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Liberia, and Rwanda. Disappointing agricultural performance in less competitive and impoverished agriculture, some less intensively adjusting countries has and investment projects which in some cases resulted from policy backsliding. Most signifi- have little impact. A second set of examples cant here are the CFA franc countries, in most relate to the removal of input subsidies before (though not all) of which the real effective ex- implementation of reforms which increase prices change rate is overvalued. This puts downward or profitability of farming. The results are nega- pressure on real prices for agricultural exports tive for agriculture. A third example is trade and import substitutes, despite other adjustment liberalization before an enabling environment measures. Also, in many adjusting countries for expanded private sector investment is several agricultural policy changes which are created. Instead of spurring investment in com- needed have been relatively neglected, as adjust- petitive agricultural products, reduced barriers ment in agriculture has focused to a large extent to agricultural imports in this situation merely on price and market liberalization (50 percent of causes imported products to substitute for local the operations), privatization (80 percent), production. liberalized export regulations (40 percent) and The policy package necessary in the future public expenditure programs (30 percent). will probably have to become more comprehen- Policy related to land tenure, farmer organiza- sive: (a) price, exchange rate, and market policy tions, private sector development, environmental reform, generally in the direction of liberaliza- problems, role of women, and rural infrastruc- tion; (b) liberalization of the regulatory environ- ture development attract the least attention. ment, financial market reform, including deve- Another problem in some countries has been lopment of private and cooperative banking; the faulty sequencing of policy reforms affecting (c) improvement of the legal establishment and agriculture. An example is in the CFA franc the rule of law to encourage respect for con- countries in which price and market policy tracts and providing for the orderly creation and reform was under-taken before real effective dissolution of enterprises; (d) active promotion depreciation of the exchange rate. Investments by government of private investment; (e) pri- in commercial agriculture (tree crops) were also vatization and/or restructuring of agricultural undertaken before the needed policy changes parastatals; (f) improvement of accounting were implemented. The result is an increasingly conventions; (g) improved tax systems. These 50 Creating an Appropriate Policy Environment for Private Sector Farming, Agricultural Marketing, Processing and Credit measures are all directed to increasing the pro- Central Africa involving CFA franc countries. fitability and safety of private sector investments Similar constraints to intra-regional trade in in agriculture, agro-industry, and marketing. To agricultural products exist in non-CFA franc this should be added where necessary: (h) land African countries. However, the latter have an tenure reform; (i) encouragement of farmer additional constraint which is the shortage of organizations; (j) incentives and regulations foreign exchange. Foreign exchange shortages encouraging environmental protection; (k) rural lead to imposition of import licensing and infrastructure development; and (1) better public foreign exchange allocation by government. The expenditure programs in agriculture. restrictions of imports which result curtail the This more comprehensive approach will also availability of equipment, spare parts, and raw address some of the sequencing issues, specific- materials by agricultural enterprises. This ally by creating the enabling environment for reduces the competitiveness of agriculture by private sector investment while pursuing tariff raising costs and reducing productivity. In reform and input subsidy reduction. Adequate addition, there has tended to be a bias by management of real exchange rates is essential administrators of such systems against imports for agricultural growth. from neighboring countries, especially for A last area of neglected agricultural policy agricultural products which are thought to be reform involves the promotion of regional inte- producible at home. To these problems of gration. A study of the subject by the Bank licensing and foreign exchange allocation are indicates enormous barriers to intra-African added inefficiencies of government marketing trade in all commodities. The study estimates enterprises, inadequate transport links between that a reduction of these barriers could double countries, absence of export credit insurance, trade? much of which is agricultural. Consider- absence of market information and restrictions able research on this subject has been done by on business travel. Most of these constraints can the Club du Sahel for Western Africa which potentially be dealt with through agricultural verifies this analysis. The present policy in the policy reform programs.' Governments have a CFA franc zone of real effective exchange rate role in reducing the barriers to entry in overvaluation and cross-border trade barriers, marketing, providing market information, and encourages imports of agricultural products creating uniform weights and measures. from outside Africa and limits trade between Not all of the policy reforms identified in the countries in the sub-region." Proposals to preceding paragraphs will be needed in all resolve this situation include bilaterally countries. In addition, the more comprehensive negotiated or unilateral reduction of tariff and an adjustment program, the more difficult to non-tariff barriers to intra-country trade within manage it becomes. Hence choices will have to West Africa, improvement of financing mecha- be made in each country, based on careful nisms for regional trade by strengthening com- analysis of policy constraints, on the appropriate mercial links (essentially financial market vehicle for supporting the various policy reform), harmonizing protection and regulatory reforms necessary, and on the capacity in the policies, investment in infrastructure within a country to manage the reforms proposed. In regional rather than single country framework, some cases slow reform programs may be elimination of constraints on investment by necessary due to limited management capacity, neighboring country investors, and allowing the or to political and social constraints. development of private trade associations cover- Generally, agricultural policy reforms which ing more than one country. A real effective liberate private sector capacity such as price, exchange rate change will be necessary to tax, exchange rate, marketing reform, and encourage intra-regional trade in Western and improved public expenditure programs should 51 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Box 5.1. Agricultural Reform - Burkina Faso The Agricultural Sector Adjustment Program of Burkina Faso will increase the efficiency of the public sector and the competitiveness of the private sector through privatizing marketing and services, reforming the banking sector, liberalizing prices, reducing the role of the cereals marketing board, eliminating agricultural price stabilization programs for grains (except rice) by the public sector, and providing incentives for increased food security in the country. With respect to restructuring the cereals marketing board (OFNACER), the government will lift all restrictions for the circulation of goods within the country. Imports and exports of coarse grains will be liberalized. OFNACER will have its storage capacity substantially reduced and will only enter the market when technical constraints for storage of cereals exists. For rice, the government is contemplating a tariff of 50 percent. The level of protection will be fixed during the agricultural year. This is a temporary measure to protect rice producers while they take steps to reduce costs through productivity growth and increased efficiency in marketing. In the interim, collection and processing of rice will not be a monopoly of any government institution and prices of paddy rice and consumer prices will be completely liberalized. The rice processing company will be privatized. The government's share in the company will be reduced to 25 percent by July, 1993 and all subsidies to this company will be eliminated. The cotton price stabilization scheme currently in place, where the world price does not have any role in the determination of the reference price, will be replaced with a reference price that is adjusted in accordance with the movements in the world price of cotton. Producers will receive, in the following season, 45 percent of the profits of the company in charge of the stabilization fund (SOFITEX). Other reforms in the sector include replacement of a turnover tax on SOFITEX by a profit tax, permission for SOFITEX to move cotton out of the country before a sales contract is signed, and creation of a planning and monitoring unit for the cotton sector. Price stabilization schemes and export restrictions for sesame, groundnuts and shcanuts will be eliminated. The government will follow the recommendations of a future price stabilization study, and permit competition in marketing and production. The adjustment program includes reforms in sugar, fruits and vegetables and livestock as well. In sugar, the import regime of the domestic market will be liberalized. In fruits and vegetables, the government will withdraw from the pool of cooperatives, which control a large share of the export market, and import authorization for cartoons will be eliminated. In livestock, the government will eliminate taxes on exports. The government will undertake a study aimed at reorganizing the institutional apparatus dealing with the agricultural sector and will prepare an action plan to implement the reforms. Source: From Peter Hazel, Agricultural and Rural Development Department, World Bank, September 1992, adapted from the World Bank Appraisal Report for 'An Agricultural Sector Adjustment Credit to Burkina Faso." be undertaken quickly. Reforms which use bound manner. It is important that these pro- scarce African management capacity such grams belong to the governments and people of asprivatization of agricultural parastatals, the country concerned, rather than being financial market reform, policy reform dealing imposed by donors. Without country commit- with natural resource management, and land ment, policy backsliding will take place and tenure reform will take longer. reforms will not stick. Local ownership will also All African countries should have medium- affect the pace of reform. Reform should also and long-term agricultural development pro- be linked to investment programs-hence the grams in which reforms are specified in a time- importance of the medium- and long-term 52 Creating an Appropriate Policy Environment for Private Sector Farming, Agricultural Marketing, Processing and Credit framework for agricultural development. But being minimized. Reform provides some hope impacts of reform can, and are, obtained in the for the development of viable rural credit short term as well. In fact, policy reform, along mechanisms. However, many of the ongoing with agricultural extension, are likely to be the World Bank-financed agricultural credit projects most effective instruments available to African or credit components of projects still use public governments to obtain immediate agricultural sector lending agencies, though only with the supply response. Because the reforms proposed requisite management autonomy, positive real here are so much more comprehensive than interest rates, and effective loan recovery those found in adjustment programs, the term policy. Whether these public sector credit agricultural adjustment should be dropped in agencies will prove viable or not when sup- favor of agricultural policy reform. ported in a context of financial market reform, Complementary reduction of industrial remains a major issue. For one thing they must country tariff and non-tariff barriers to also focus on savings mobilization in the agricultural trade from Africa, as well as countryside, providing facilities for rural people general reform of industrial country agricultural to safely deposit money. They must also find subsidies would have a stimulative effect on ways of reducing transactions costs through, for African agriculture, by allowing more African example, group lending, linkage to coopera- agricultural production at higher prices. tives, farmers groups, to traders and agro- businesses which can function as intermediaries Credit and Other Pro-Active Assistance to the for lending. Ways must be found to manage the Private Sector risk of defaults caused by climatic and com- mercial crisis.' This might be done through The major area of pro-active assistance to guarantee schemes. Instruments for lending to private sector farming, marketing, and farmers who lack collateral must be developed, processing has been through rural credit. Most for example, by using group schemes, or joint agriculture credit projects in Africa have failed liability. The strategy must also encourage (as reported by the Bank's Operations private and cooperative saving and loan institu- Evaluation Department in their ex-post project tions in rural areas. A study is under way to audits). Parastatal agricultural credit institutions look more closely at these issues.' have been universal failures in SSA. This Several recent donor-supported credit pro- resulted from the politicization of these jects assist farmer-owned cooperative credit institutions since they are owned by govern- institutions, minimizing government involve- ments. This led in turn to heavy lending to the ment. The Benin Rural Savings and Loan more affluent farmers and to the political elite, Rehabilitation Project now under way is a good without strict observance of effective lending example. The project supports cooperative credit criteria. Political constraints to loan recovery, institutions owned and managed by subscribers and political pressure to maintain low and from Benin's rural areas, and are autonomous financially unjustifiable interest rates contributed from government. Lending is based on savings to the failure." Undue reliance on external mobilized by these cooperatives rather than on sources of subsidized funds facilitated these donor credit lines. Donors provide technical abuses, and made nearly all of the credit assistance and financing of physical structures, schemes unsustainable. The result was poorly as well as institutional support. Interest rates are performing portfolios, low loan recovery, and set by the institutions themselves, and are now heavy financial losses. at high levels to cover costs and risks. Similar The most recent World Bank-financed programs are under preparation in Guinea and agriculture credit projects have been undertaken Madagascar. Other good examples are Rwanda's where there is a process of financial market Banques Populaires, Ghana's Rural Banks, reform in which financial market distortions are Burundi's Cooperative Credit Banks and 53 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Cameroon's Cooperative Credit Societies investment, at competitive interest rates. (CAMCUL). Ghana's Rural Banks involve Although the focus is on private sector minority equity participation by the Central investment in agriculturally related activities Bank as a way of accelerating development. All rather than on developing credit institutions, of these experiments with and without govern- satisfactory financial sector policy or a satis- ment involvement in rural banking are good factory financial sector reform program is a models which are applicable elsewhere in condition for moving ahead. The major issue is Africa. the validity of targeting credit to specific sub- Private commercial banks may also be sectors. Targeting to agriculture has worked assisted to develop rural lending capabilities. well in China, Japan and Korea. The consensus Lines of credit through apex arrangements for of agricultural experts is that such targeting in onlending through qualified commercial banks, the context of a reforming financial sector, us- in turn on-lent for agriculturally-related (or ing private banks and cooperative institutions desirable in situations of capital scarcity for (and in some cases banks involving government private investment. Loan recipients should participation), at unsubsidized interest rates, is include small-scale enterprises. This may be a necessary to stimulate commercial agriculture in good way to handle trade finance. Agro- Africa. Targeted credit will facilitate access to business and traders receiving commercial credit by groups traditionally ignored by the loans, can on-lend to farmers. Donor financing formal financial sector such as smallholders, of seed capital for loan guarantee funds may be women and micro-enterprises in rural areas. It appropriate, initially, to cushion the risk of can help overcome obstacles such as poor infor- lending by private banks entering into the mation, lack of lender experience and expertise agricultural sector. When combined with in lending to these groups or in assessing certain financial market reform, technical assistance to agricultural technologies, and absence of lender private banks to develop agricultural lending, confidence in the borrowers. It can help where and other pro-active private sector agricultural the formal financial sector is shallow. development efforts and lines of credit through private banks would contribute greatly to private Divestiture of Agricultural Parastatals agricultural sector development in countries which have a good economic policy framework. Agricultural parastatals having purely com- An alternative where the constraint is not capital mercial activities should be divested over time scarcity, but rather the high cost of lending to to the private sector. African governments own farmers, may be transactions cost subsidies, as tree crop plantations, cattle ranches, sugar a lump sum per loan made. There are as yet no estates, industrial forest plantations, agricultural examples of such World Bank projects in marketing enterprises, and crop processing Africa. However, several are under preparation, factories of all kinds. Several governments also such as in Guinea, Uganda, Cameroon and own marketing enterprises for farm inputs. Pri- Madagascar. USAID has developed several vatization should start with these commercially- projects of a similar nature which merit oriented enterprises. The reason is that the monitoring. commercially-oriented parastatals have in the In several countries, projects are being vast majority of cases performed poorly.10 prepared with the objective of developing Private enterprises generally perform better." private sector agro-industrial, agricultural Public sector-owned agro-processing enterprises marketing or export crop investment (Zambia, are often found to be over-dimensioned and Burundi, Senegal, Guinea, Kenya, Cameroon, costly, bringing high debt loads and low capa- Madagascar, and Nigeria.) Lines of credit city utilization.12 The private sector is more through commercial banks will finance such likely to better design capacity to fit market 54 Creating an Appropriate Policy Environment for Private Sector Farming, Agricultural Marketing, Processing and Credit demand, and to build capacity more slowly as has up to 20 percent participation in parastatals. demand develops. An analysis undertaken by This equity then can be slowly sold to private the Bank of the impact of privatization on investors, or some shares can be given to welfare covering twelve firms in four (non- employees and/or to farmers supplying the African) countries showed it to have improved enterprise." In difficult cases, privatization welfare 92 percent of the time. The improve- might begin with a joint private-public venture. ment resulted from increased private investment, Government could sell its shares slowly over increased productivity, improved management time. In the most difficult cases, where private and better prices." In Africa, the British- sector investors are not forthcoming, privatiza- American Tobacco company performs better tion of management can be a good first step, but than parastatal tobacco companies, the private the process works best if full privatization is set coffee processing companies of Kenya perform out as the final objective. Where excessive better than the public companies in both eastern foreign ownership is a concern and the above is and western Africa. Unilever's palm oil not feasible, giving some shares to employees plantations in C6te d'Ivoire perform better than and reserving some for sale to nationals may the government's plantations. The private help. Divestiture can also be helped by initial Namakia Sugar Company in Madagascar restructuring aimed at cost reduction. Restruc- profitably expanded production from 6,000 tons turing should include legal, organizational, and in 1950 to 30,000 tons in 1970, whereas most managerial changes. If labor shedding is neces- public sector sugar companies in Africa are sary, it is often best handled by the state. financial losers. Cameroon's private rubber Changing management and settling the liabilities company SAFACAM is profitable, while the of the parastatal are standard measures in suc- parastatal CDC's rubber operation loses money. cessful privatization, according to the studies The worst performing cattle ranches in Africa reviewed. The support of workers is best have been government-owned, such as in Benin obtained by subsidized shares in the privatized and Gabon. Privately-owned ranches throughout firms and by the granting of adequate severance Africa perform relatively well. packages. Liabilities will have to be settled by Privatization of an agricultural parastatal is government. Donors can usefully finance this sometimes best done by sale of assets such as aspect. individual plantations, processing plants, or The World Bank's affiliate, the International trucking fleets. Sales of parastatal assets might Finance Corporation (IFC), as well as similar also be undertaken by auctioning the whole or donor organizations (Britain's Commonwealth parts of such enterprises. In this way, the mar- Development Corporation (CDC), Germany's ket decides on the sales price. Enterprise valua- Finance Corporation for Reconstruction (KFW), tion by government before sale is difficult and and the Caisse Frangaise de Ddveloppement are often leads to overvaluation. In these circum- examples) should help by investing in private stances, few private investors will be interested ventures acquiring parastatals. Direct donor in purchasing. Transparency of the transaction, financing to assist in the rehabilitation of however it is arranged, is critical. Private parastatals by new private owners, as well as investment bankers, retained by government, are indirect lending through credit projects should much better equipped than are governments to be pursued. There are several novel ideas to organize privatization. create equity investment funds and venture Where there are fears of excessive foreign capital companies to invest in privatized dominance of privatized parastatals, some or all parastatals, usually with grants provided by of a parastatal's equity can be sold to the donors. Examples where such investments are general public. Cameroon has successfully ex- being planned are in Guinea, Burundi, and COte perimented with the establishment of an institu- d'Ivoire. Japan is assisting this process in C6te tional investment company (PROPARCO) which d'Ivoire. Donors should also finance severance 55 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank pay for workers laid off in privatization efforts likely to be successful in countries where there (this is not presently Bank policy). Severance is considerable civil strife. But this leaves many pay is an investment cost in better enterprise countries in which an effort can be made. performance. Finally, donors should foster Interesting projects under preparation or under competitive environments by financing compet- way are Guinea Export Crops (see Box 5.2), ing enterprises. Ethiopia Peasant Coffee Development, Ethiopia A major issue is the likely interest of the Fourth Livestock, Kenya Veterinary Services, private sector in investing in African agriculture Uganda Livestock Services, Kenya Agricultural and in agriculturally-related activity. There is Marketing and Agro-industry, Mauritius Sugar some indirect evidence that such investment Diversification, Burundi Agro-industries, would be forthcoming. The first such evidence Rwanda Agricultural Industry, Sao Tome and is from Kenya and Zimbabwe, and from the Principe Private Sector Development, Zambia Ivoirian and Cameroonian experience in the Agricultural Marketing and Processing, and 1960s and 1970s. A good policy and institu- Zambia Export Diversification. tional environment in these countries, though far from perfect, stimulated private investment in Likely Private Sector Response agro-industry and marketing. This investment was undertaken by foreign and domestic enter- The likely private agricultural sector prises. Many of the larger investors were local response to an improved policy environment, "foreigners" (Lebanese, Indian and European effective rural financial intermediation, and nationals). That this would happen again in the government efforts to divest agricultural right environment is suggested also by the parastatals, is difficult to predict with great recent experience of Nigeria, Ghana, Uganda confidence. As indicated previously, where even and Mauritius where appropriate policy environ- some of these efforts have taken place, the ments (though still with many imperfections) private sector has responded. Examples are have stimulated private investment in agriculture Kenya since its independence; C6te d'Ivoire and and agro-industry. Significantly, much of this Cameroon in the 1960s and 1970s; Nigeria, investment is by Africans. Similarly, there has Uganda, Ghana, Togo, and Mauritius more re- been considerable private investment by cently. The response has been by both foreign Africans in Kenya in the early 1980s. and local entrepreneurs, large and small. In Privatization is already under way in Africa. Ghana and Nigeria, small-scale private agricul- Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 17 percent of tural marketing and processing enterprises are total developing country sales of parastatals (373 beginning to flourish under an encouraging public enterprises privatized) in all sectors. policy environment. Guinea has privatized the most. Several coun- An idea of what private sector-dominated tries in Latin America and Europe are far ahead farming and agro-industry will look like of Africa in this process however (Chile, requires scrutiny of existing private sector- Mexico and Germany)." Privatization will not dominated sectors in Africa. Africa contains be successful where the policy environment does many private sector companies which either not permit private sector activity to be profit- produce a specialized crop themselves on an able, or where capital scarcity makes it difficult estate, or contract with farms to produce a crop. for the private sector to mobilize the necessary Contracting companies purchase, process and funds. This is presently the situation in most of market the crops, sometimes for export. Some the CFA franc countries. Privatization is un- private companies both produce their own crop, 56 Creating an Appropriate Policy Environment for Private Sector Farming, Agricultural Marketing, Processing and Credit Box 5.2. Private Sector-Oriented Projects Once macro-economic policy conditions are ripe, projects which support private sector investment in agriculture and agro-industry will be desirable. Elements of such projects include the following components: * support to private industrial associations such as fruit and vegetable producers, exports, traders, and chambers of commerce, in providing assistance to their members for investment, market research, trade fairs, specialized research, representation to government, and as a source of investment capital; * support to private sources of technical assistance to private investors through industrial associations, private banks, and private consulting firms; * construction of essential infrastructure by private sector firms on contract, and managed by these firms to the extent possible. Infrastructure would include storage, port facilities, rail and transport equipment; * creation of investment and innovation funds, managed privately, to take equity participation in investments, invest in privatized parastatals, and to undertake research into new products. These funds can be established independently, or in collaboration with private banks; and * privatization of agricultural and agro-industrial parastatals. Donor-financed private sector operators can coordinate such projects. Because of World Bank rules and regulations, much of the funding would have to be grant and equity funding from bilateral donors, IFC and the private sector. World Bank loans would be to profit-making activities such as credit institutions, and guaranteed by government. A project of this type is being prepared in Guinea, with the collaboration of government. Essential to this process is commitment by government to private sector development, and establishment of an enabling policy environment. and contract with farmers. do the horticultural sectors of Zimbabwe, C6te An example of the contracting model is the d'Ivoire and Guinea. British-American Tobacco company. It contracts At the other extreme are large plantations with farmers to grow tobacco in several owned by such private companies as Del Monte countries. The company sells seeds and farm in- (pineapples in Kenya), SAPH (rubber in C6te puts, and provides extension advice and credit d'Ivoire), Unilever (palm oil in Zaire and C6te to carefully selected farmers. The farmers sell d'Ivoire) and estate tea in Kenya. These the product to the company at a price estab- companies produce their own raw material, hir- lished by the company. Several public sector ing rural people as laborers - they have been and mixed ownership tobacco schemes have successful. copied this model, and could be privatized. A Examples of mixtures of company-owned similar model has been employed by the mixed plantations and use of outgrowers are commonly public and private cotton companies of western found in the sugar, coffee, rubber, tea, and and Central Africa, by the few privately-owned palm oil sectors. cotton companies in East Africa, and by Del Donors have financed many public sector Monte's banana operation in Cameroon. Much schemes employing the plantation, contracting of Kenya's horticultural sector is privately or mixed models described above, but with full owned and employs this model (see Box 5.3), as or majority government ownership. 57 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Box 5.3. Kenya's Horticultural Exports Among the most interesting private sector schemes have been those for horticultural crops such as fresh fruit and vegetables, mostly for export. Kenya's horticulture sector has been most successful, now exporting about USS108 million per annum, and expanding at 11.6% per annum in the 1980s. Kenya's horticulture sector contains about 120 private sector companies contracting with more than 30,000 farmers to produce about 75 commodities. The commodities include canned pineapples and french beans; fruit and vegetable juices (pineapple, passion fruit, orange, tomato); fresh tropical fruits and vegetables (french beans, chillies, okra, mango, avocado, strawberry, pineapple, passion fruit), and cut flowers (carnations, roses, alstroemesia, chrysanthemums, and orchids). Kenya now has more than one-third of SSA's exports of fresh vegetables (1988), one-half of its exports of processed vegetables, two-thirds of its exports of processed fruit, and 80 percent of its exports of cut flowers. These industries often use forward commitments under which farmers agree to supply, and companies to procure, a product at a stated time, price and quality. Alternatively, production contracts are used specifying production practices to be followed, inputs to be used, and services provided by the company, including credit. Kenya's fresh produce trade began operating on a significant scale in the 1950s. It was initiated by a few European and Asian trading firms with experience serving the European settler community and the local market for potatoes and onions. This fresh produce trade expanded in the 1970s with better air transport, better production technology brought by the exporters, and contracts between the exporters and large European, Asian and African farmers. Most trade was based on highly personalized long-term trading links with one or a few European importers. In the 1980s, there has been increased competition among Kenya's exporters, as well as increased demand in Europe. Contracts with smallholders blossomed. Government policy has been characterized by non-interference. By comparison with the fresh produce trade, Kenya's government underwrote initial investments by multi- nationals in the fruit and vegetable processing industry. By the early 1970s, several successful joint ventures were undertaken by the government and multinational companies such as Del Monte for processed fruit. Government took a minority share, provided low-cost access to land and services, helped organize smallholder production of raw material, and allowed the foreign partner exclusive control over factory management and trading. Foreign partners usually bore little financial risk. Continuous structural change followed these initial investments. For example, Del Monte shifted its pineapple production to a plantation based, fully integrated operation, obtaining 20,000 acres of land from Government. Other fully private ventures began, many depending on various contracting relationships with smallholders. A French-Kenyan company contracts with about 20,000 farmers for green beans, providing inputs, technical support, and a high price segment of the French market for canned green beans. Cut flower production and export begun with investment by a Danish Firm (Dansk Chrysanthemumklutan). This company obtained favorable credit terms, a low cost lease on 15,000 acres, exclusive growing and trading rights for several flowers for 8 years, and some tax exemptions. The Danish Government provided a subsidy for one-third of the investment cost. The industry was so lucrative, however, that by the mid-1980s there were more than twelve flower producers/exporters, including several African owned firms. The Kenyan experience indicates what can happen in a benign policy environment with good transport links, and a Government which welcomes investment by foreign companies with a good marketing network in industrial countries, and which provides some support. However, to this day only about 7 percent of the total trade is accounted for by Kenya's African firms. Kenya's Africans have had difficulty maintaining viable enterprises due to low capitalization, management weaknesses, and lack of links to foreign importers. Where African companies have worked, family members living in Europe have been important in managing imports. Long-term trading arrangements between exporters and importers are therefore critical. As a result, attraction of foreign know-how and investment is likely to be critical initially, because it provides the know-how, markets, and investment. This information is entirely based on work in progress by Steven Jaffee, *Marketing Africa's Horticultural Exports: A Transactions Costs Perspective," (draft), Africa Region Technical Publication, World Bank, March 1982; "How Private Enterprises Organized Agricultural Markets in Kenya," World Bank PRE Working Paper #823, 1992. 58 Creating an Appropriate Policy Environment for Private Sector Farming, Agricultural Marketing, Processing and Credt Many of the these public sector schemes ran generally run such enterprises better than the into financial and technical difficulty, while public sector, and there is a private sector in many of the private sector schemes not Africa which can be successful when the supported by donors did well. The picture is constraints of poor policy, inadequate financial complicated by exceptions however. Kenya's intermediation and government monopoly are majority government-owned tea parastatal eliminated. Private enterprises help countries by (KTDA) functions very well. Nevertheless, providing employment, training, revenue to there are two lessons: the private sector can governments and local businesses. Notes 1. The countries for which audits were done are: Good policy during the 1970s and early 1980s: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Zimbabwe, Togo, and Malawi. Bad policy: Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Zaire, Zambia, Ethiopia, Madagascar, Tanzania, Senegal, and Niger. This classification has changed over time with some country policies improving recently (Nigeria, Tanzania, Sierra Leone, Zambia, Ethiopia), and some deteriorating (Cameroon, Malawi)). 2. See Graeme Donovan, "Impact of Structural Adjustment on Sub-Saharan African Agriculture: A Progress Report," Africa Technical Department, World Bank, October 5, 1992. 3. Intra-Regional Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa, Report No. 7685-AFR, Economics and Finance Division, Africa Technical Department, World Bank, May 1991. 4. Club du Sahel, OECD, CILSS; "Approaches to Regional Cooperation in West Africa," November 1991. 5. The West Africa Ministers of Agriculture Initiative, in which Ministers of Agriculture from seventeen Western and Central Africa countries participate, is pursuing objectives of regional agricultural integration and cooperation. 6. See Ismail Serageldin, "Realistic Reform, Factoring in the Costs of Failure," (draft) Africa Region, World Bank, January 26, 1992. 7. See World Bank, "Rural Financial Markets, A Study Proposal," Agriculture Division, Africa Technical Department, October 1991. See also World Bank Operational Directive 8.30, Financial Sector Operations, February 28, 1992. These results are consistent with findings of FAO studies. This appears to contradict the situation of ongoing credit projects as reported on page 27, in which relative success is reported. This is because the present projects are designed in a manner more consistent with the strategy proposed here, which is having some success. 8. This analysis is taken substantially from FAO and IFPRI material. 9. The Study is being coordinated by the Technical Department of the World Bank's Africa Region, in collaboration with the the Caisse Frangaise de Ddveloppement, Netherlands, and the FAO. 59 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank 10. The evidence is set out in Privatization: Lessons of Experience for Bank Group Lending, Country Economics Department, World Bank, March 12, 1992. 11. Ibid., p. 10 and World Bank, "Strategic Agenda for Private Sector Development," Industry and Energy Division, Africa Region, Note No. 11, March 1992. Both studies cite abundant cases of conversions from public sector to private sector ownership which cause an improvement in enterprise performance. 12. Yovan Grouitch, "R6flexions sur la Privatisation des Agro-Industries d'Afrique Francophone," (draft), Occidental and Central Africa Department, Africa Region, World Bank, July 1992. 13. World Bank, Privatization: Lessons of Experience for Bank Group Lending, op. cit., p. 14. 14. See G. Nankani, "Techniques of Privatization of State Owned Enterprises," Selected Country Case Studies, Vol. 11, World Bank Technical Paper No. 89, 1989. See also Yovan Grouitch, op. cit. 15. World Bank, Privatization: Lesson of Experience for Bank Group Lending, op. cit. 60 6. Technology Advancement at the Farm and Enterprise Level What Kind of Agricultural Technology for more productive system. In addition, the the Future? burning adds nutrients to the soil, and permits production of acid-tolerant crops such as Chapter 4 described a major constraint to the cowpeas and upland rice. Once harvested, the introduction of improved agricultural technology cow pea tops and the rice stalks are returned to to be a lack of demand for new technology by the soil, adding fertility. No fertilizer is farmers. This lack of demand was associated required. A managed fallow is then undertaken with a complex set of constraints including low with a legume or grass legume pasture. Kudzu profitability of technological innovation caused has been found appropriate for this in some by inappropriate policy and more recently, low circumstances. This plant grows quickly, world prices, traditional shifting cultivation and smothers weeds, and is more efficient than transhumant livestock systems which could not forest fallow in returning fertility to the soil. make good use of many new technologies, poor Tree stumps rot more quickly with Kudzu, and soil and water conditions, inadequate financial a field is ready to be managed more intensively resources for farmers to buy the needed inputs, after this process is completed. A more and poor infrastructure linking farms to market. intensive farming system is required in These constraints to farmer demand for subsequent years due to rapid fertility decline improved technology must be overcome, if after each crop. Possibilities include one of improved technology is to be adopted by several agro-forestry systems; tree crops such as farmers. The policy environment was discussed rubber or oil palm; legume-based pasture; or in the previous chapter. Other demand-side field crops using some chemical fertilizer. The constraints are discussed in subsequent chapters: interesting point about this technology which is infrastructure, land tenure, education, and one of many being developed for the tropics, is health. But once these demand-side constraints that it improves on the predominate farming are removed, then the supply of technology system of shifting cultivation, is low cost, and becomes the constraint, which is the subject of it could help accelerate the evolution to this chapter. sedentary farming and out of slash and burn. There are some "new" agricultural Farmers would progressively introduce technologies being developed for the tropics. An increased fertilizer use in subsequent years. example is "low-input farming" being developed CIRAD and IITA are developing similar by CIRAD in West Africa (C6te d'Ivoire), IITA systems. in Nigeria and by ICRAF in Kenya.' Ongoing New technologies for millet-based agriculture research by Pedro Sanchez, now at ICRAF, is in the Sahel are under development and test at based in a realistic setting in which the farmer several national agricultural research centers and first clears new land, through traditional slash at ICRISAT's Sahelian Center in Niger. The and burn. Although burning is not advocated technique includes seeding on ridges to reduce because of its negative environmental impact, it damage to seedlings because of sand blast; use is realistically incorporated in the farming of locally available rock phosphate; system because it is such a common practice, intercropping or relay cropping with a legume and will be a first step in the transition to a (cowpea or peanut); and spreading of crop 61 A Strategy to Develop Agriculure in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank residue on the soil surface. The latter offers such as smallholder rubber in parts of West significant beneficial effects for the succeeding Africa, fruit and vegetable production in Kenya, crop: it adds plant nutrient, reduces evaporative and tobacco in Zaire all involved systemic and surfaces by mulching, reduces soil temperature, commodity changes appropriate to specific and controls soil erosion caused by wind. locations. It is these types of changes which can Scrutiny of successful agricultural make a major difference to agriculture in innovations in Africa shows them to have been Africa. More of this type of technology needs to taken up in relatively narrow areas, suggesting be developed and then extended to signficant the importance of adaptation to specific numbers of farmers.' situations. For example, animal traction was There are several useful ways of stratifying successfully introduced to a large number of Sub-Saharan Africa for the purpose of cotton farmers in northern Cte d'Ivoire and in technology assessment. One is by agro- Senegal, but cotton farmers in many other West ecological zone. The technology needs of the African countries were very slow to take it up, Sahel are very different from those of the humid and remain so to this day. The CFDT cotton tropics, which in turn are different from the system in West Africa involves improved large expanse of semi-humid tropics. But this varieties of cotton, introduced into a stratification relates to types of technologies fundamentally altered farming system. Shifting which have potential, and the nature of specific cultivators became sedentary cotton farmers, research, rather than the principles of using chemical inputs, and planting according to technology generation. For example, in the husbandry techniques communicated by exten- Sahel, important agricultural research themes sion agents. The entire farming system changed will include animal disease, livestock husbandry around cotton. But non-cotton farmers living in in pastoral systems, sorghum and millet the same areas maintained traditional farming technologies, small-scale irrigation, on farm systems, suggesting the difficulty of generalized soil-water management, and agro-forestry for introduction of "modern" agricultural techno- dry conditions. In parts of West Africa's humid logies. tropics, the most important agricultural research Another example of location-specific may deal with tree crops, fruits, and vegetables. technological improvement involves the Kenya In sub-humid zones, various aspects of cereal dairy industry. It is based on cross-bred animals crop husbandry will be most important. But the raised on mixed livestock-cropping farms. variations in specific technology needs and Farmers are sedentary, often hold title to their opportunities will be enormous. Other land, grow fodder crops, stall-feed their topologies are possible such as for smallholder animals, are dependent on artificial insemination or large farm, subsistence crop or cash crop, for services and on publicly-managed livestock dips specific places and for different categories of for tick control. This is both a revolutionary farmers. Technology assessment and audit, change in the farming system and one involving applied to specific situations, will be a useful commodity improvements (cross-bred animals). device to evaluate new technologies being But this system has not been successfully introduced to farmers, and technologies which introduced on a large scale elsewhere in Africa. are promising for eventual introduction to Yet another example is hybrid maize in farmers, in each of these different situations. Kenya. It involves the results of a major maize breeding program, and a systems change for Agricultural Research farmers who become sedentary, who use chemical inputs, and who undertake careful Relevant agricultural research is crucial for husbandry. Only in Zimbabwe did hybrid maize technology innovation in Africa of the type just take off to the same degree. Other examples illustrated. Before the 1960s, the primary 62 Technology Advancenent at the Farm and Enterprise Level emphasis of research was directed at export agricultural research. In 1991, SPAAR and the crops (tea, coffee, rubber, cocoa and cotton). World Bank, with the participation of national After the 1960s, increasing importance was researchers and administrators, completed a given to food crops research through rural and study of the agricultural research systems in two community development projects financed by eco-political regions of Africa: the CILSS and donors. This approach was replaced in the SADC. Similar studies were started in 1992 for 1980s by projects financing agricultural research the other two eco-political regions. In the services at the national level. Many are small completed studies, it was found that all of the donor "add-on" projects which are grafted on to research institutes were poorly funded, agricultural research establishments and are contained research programs with little rarely sustained beyond donor-financing periods. relevance to agricultural needs, and did not Most research projects have been identified collaborate. An inventory of the situation is without a national master plan. Most summarized in Annex Table 15, which shows governments have not been committed to food that no agricultural research system in Africa is crops research as reflected in the lack of up to present Asian standards, and that only operating funds. An adequate number of trained nine systems meet minimum acceptable national researchers and technicians have not standards, despite large annual expenditures. been available - those who were trained lacked Important recommendations were made by experience. There has been little cooperation SPAAR for radical restructuring of agricultural among national research prrams. African research establishments in the SADC and CILSS agricultural research often suffers from weak countries.' management due to bureaucratization of The fundamental objectives must be to make research by governments which manage or research more responsive to local, national and oversee most research. regional development challenges; to make it In 1990, the members of the Special fully accountable to its clientele; and to greatly Program for African Agricultural Research increase the efficiency of use of the resources (SPAAR) agreed to launch a new initiative. The available. The increase in efficiency can be objective of this initiative is to increase achieved through: greatly strengthened manage- agricultural productivity by reinvigorating ment; improved linkages of African research to national agricultural research systems within a industrial country research centers, and to the regional context. The initiative aims at international agricultural research centers; developing regional Frameworks For Action increased participation of the private sector, (FFA) in agricultural research in the four main universities, NGOs; and by improving the work eco-political regions of Sub-Saharan Africa: the environment for staff of African research Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought institutions. The latter objective needs to be Control in the Sahel (CILSS) region, the dealt with by financing recurrent costs, and Southern African Development Coordination through institutional re-organization. Conference (SADC) region, the humid and sub- There is consensus on the main action points, humid zones of Central and Western Africa, and which are as follows: the highland regions of Central and Eastern * National agricultural research programs Africa (which include the Inter-Governmental need to be based on Master Plans which are Authority of Drought and Development integrated into agricultural research frameworks (IGADD) member countries. Each FFA would developed for groups of countries (as done in develop a strategic agenda around which the Sahel and SADC regions). These multi- governments, universities, the private sector, country frameworks provide for sharing of donors, IARCs, regional organizations and information and results, networking between NGOs can work to enhance the effectiveness of research institutes in the countries of the group, 63 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Box 6.1. SPAAR's Research Strategies Kenya Coffee Research Institutes, and Zimbab- we's Tobacco Research Institute. Agriculture Tanzania and Mali were selected by the partici- research establishments which are responsive to pating African governments and donors as the farmers will probably do relatively more work pilot countries in which the SPAAR recommen- on soil and water management, farming systems dations would be first applied and tested. In research, mixed livestock cropping, agro- each case the main thrust is to consolidate reach mid lvstk copng ar- vaceariuse donorpe and go ctonsidae forestry, on-farm processing and storage, simple various donor projects and government actions into a single national agricultural research farm implements and low-input technology. system whose structure and research These are areas in which farmers in many coun- undertakings are defined in a long-term master tries have pressing needs for technology. For plan. The master plan would also define export crops, quality improvements to meet research to be undertaken by the private sector, market requirements will become more parastatals, universities, NGOs, and foreign important. collaborating institutions. Collaborative mechanisms between these institutions are to be * The dissemination of research findings defined. Restructuring of public sector needs to be improved. institutions is foreseen with focus on the most * The institutional base for agriculture important and promising research. Cooperation research in Africa needs to be made more plura- with research undertaken by the international listic, including the private sector, universities, centers and research institutions in neighboring irs countries is important. Restructuring plans for industrial country research establishments, inter- public sector agriculture research establishments national agriculture research centers, as well as include staff training, phase-out of unproductive the government agriculture research systems. staff, rehabilitation of structures and equipment, There are successful privately-managed agricul- full financing of operating costs, and overhaul of tural research efforts in Africa. In Zimbabwe, management systems. Zimbabwe, Burkina Faso, Zambia, Senegal and Malawi are likely to for example, private companies conduct re- follow this approach quickly. A novel feature in search in poultry diseases, hog production, and Zambia will be the establishment of a funding sugar. Government and private companies in mechanism to contract research to private and Zimbabwe successfully cooperate in seed re- NGO institutions. search and distribution. Most fruit and vegetable I research in Zimbabwe is private. The limited examples of private sector research show consi- and the creation of poles located in each country derable success, but only on the most profitable of the group for research on specific subjects to products. This suggests that by encouraging pri- develop a critical mass on each subject. vate sector research, government may be able to * The relevance and responsiveness of re- focus more on crops, livestock and husbandry of search to clients should be improved by: pro- greatest concern to small farmers and subsis- viding capacity for policy analysis within tence farmers. research establishments; ensuring that the clients * All sources of funds for NARSs need to be are adequately represented on the various con- coordinated to achieve a Consolidated Funding trolling bodies of research institutes; verifying Mechanism. This is because present fragmented the technical quality of research; ensuring that funding mechanisms do not work well. Recur- researchers make contact with farmers; and rent costs will have to be financed, in part by making researchers (and their managers) donors. accountable for the quality and impact of their * All aspects of management of NARSs need work. This concept is represented by successful improvement: administration, personnel, farmer participation in the Kenya Tea and finance, and scientific endeavors (the latter to 64 Technology Advancement at the Farm and Enterprise Level include quality control and the establishment of Farmers who are members of cooperatives effective linkages with extension, input supply, obtain advice through their cooperative and other services). In some cases, government organizations. Universities and research stations agricultural research institutions will need to be also provide advice directly to some farmers. reduced in size, staff numbers cut and the In Sub-Saharan Africa, agricultural extension remaining staff retrained and better paid. has been largely confined to the public domain, There is as yet little on-the-ground and provided through Ministries of Agriculture, experience with this new approach. or through parastatals supervised by the Considerable effort will be devoted to Ministry of Agriculture. Usually these structures implementing this strategy through agricultural are highly centralized, with a Director of research projects, beginning in Mali, Tanzania, extension in the capital city, and District Zambia, Zimbabwe and Burkina Faso, and then Directors at regional levels. Field-level extended to all of the Sahelian and SADC extension staff are usually based throughout countries in the next several years (see Box each country at the local level. The common 6.1). A similar strategy will be followed after criticisms of these systems are: (a) the extension the completion of frameworks for action in staff are poorly trained and know little more agricultural research for the humid and semi- than the farmers know; (b) the extension staff humid zone of western and Central Africa, and are poorly paid and have little motivation to for the IGADD countries of eastern Africa. share whatever knowledge they do have with Ongoing World Bank-financed agricultural farmers; (c) management systems are poor, so research projects will be redesigned along these that there is little pressure on staff or their principles. Interesting ideas for contracting out managers to seek new knowledge or to serve research to non-government institutions are farmers; (d) farmers are treated as ignorant already being developed in Ghana, Zambia, recipients of information, rather than Uganda, Zimbabwe and Tanzania, which will be knowledgeable partners in technology transfer; a useful vehicle for bringing in the private (e) extension agents are not accountable to sector. As there is likely to be resistance by farmers; and (f) in some cases, operating entrenched bureaucracies to the opening up of facilities, vehicles and bicycles are so rare that research to the private sector, the dialogue will the few motivated and knowledgeable extension have to be at the highest political level. staff cannot systematically visit farmers even if they wanted to. The result is typically a large Agricultural Extension inert agricultural bureaucracy which has no impact on agriculture. Agricultural extension-the transfer of In the 1960s and 1970s, extension in Africa agricultural techniques and knowledge to was financed by donors largely through rural farmers-is undertaken in virtually every development and commodity development country in the world. The mechanisms of this projects. These projects had high failure rates. transfer and the organization of extension vary World Bank project performance audit reports from country to country. In some industrial found that in World Bank agricultural projects, countries there are private and public agricul- extension systems were poorly managed, and tural extension systems which complement one technology was often not relevant to farmers. another. In the United States for example, the Analysis by the World Bank of other donors' public sector supports county agricultural agricultural projects led to the same conclusion. extension agents who provide advice on Technical messages communicated to farmers agricultural technology to farmers. At the same were often of an extremely general type, time, fertilizer, pesticide, and equipment purportedly applicable over diverse agro- suppliers provide highly specialized advice. ecological conditions, but in fact applicable to 65 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Pocus for the World Bank only a few, if any. A common problem was that How can these successful experiences be noted previously: poorly-trained extension replicated more widely? One approach to agents. Competition between various donor- improving the efficiency of public sector inspired extension systems was common, often extension in Sub-Saharan Africa is through the with each providing contradictory messages. For use of the "training and visit" (T&V) system. example, cotton companies would focus on Twenty-seven African countries now use this cotton messages, rural development projects on extension system. It emphasizes improved staff food crops, livestock projects on livestock, often management and training, so that well-trained in the same places. The resulting "noise" was agents with suitable messages visit regularly often wisely ignored by farmers. with farmers. It also emphasizes the develop- This unhappy experience has led to several ment of suitable technology tested on farmers' schools of thought about what to do with fields with farmer participation. Farmers agricultural extension in Africa. One school of themselves will be the final decision-makers thought suggests that if the technology is regarding appropriate technology. The extension profitable, farmers will not need extension to service endeavors to assess farmer needs and find out about it and introduce it. The demand for technology, which is systematically experience with the limited successful communicated to researchers. Researchers technology transfer in Africa suggests this view endeavor to provide answers based on existing to be wrong. Hybrid maize varieties in Kenya research, or, if necessary, new research. These and Zimbabwe required strong extension efforts answers are then communicated to farmers over a number of years. Even today, not all through the extension service. Extension agents farmers in Kenya and Zimbabwe use hybrid also observe best farmer practices, maize in the environments where it is both disseminating more widely the good results from appropriate and profitable, despite the fact that the fields of better farmers. When the system is most of their neighbors use it. Every year, working, it is found that farmers themselves will extension services convince more Kenyan and communicate useful information to other Zimbabwean farmers to use hybrid maize and to farmers so that extension agents do not need to improve their crop husbandry. Recent surveys contact all farmers or even a majority of them. in Kenya and Burkina Faso indicate the high The basic principles of the 'T&V' impact of extension on farmer adoption of management system are as follows:' improved technology (see Box 6.2). Extension * There must be regular and periodic played an important role in the dissemination of agricultural training for all staff in the extension the CFDT cotton package in West Africa and service. For field extension agents, this will still does. British-American Tobacco has a involve frequent training (every two weeks for private extension system as the cornerstone of example) by subject matter specialists' in the its program with farmers in Africa. SAPH, the types of agricultural recommendations they will rubber company in CMte d'Ivoire, has extension provide to farmers. Subject matter specialists as its core service to outgrowers. Kenya's tea who provide the training to extension agents company (KTDA) has an excellent extension must also receive frequent training (say every service, much appreciated by farmers according month) by agricultural research staff (and by to the survey in Kenya. Extension appears to be other higher-level agricultural specialists). the major element in introducing widespread soil Training must be practical. Demonstrations in and water conservation technology in Burkina the field are used as a major training tool. A Faso, and in parts of Kenya. Extension premium is put on developing new extension improves the quality of agricultural labor-and messages, and on facilitating farmer feedback to educates that labor. This is a necessary extension agents and through them to re- ingredient of agricultural development. searchers regarding both the impact of messages 66 Technology Advancement at the Farm and Enterprise Level and specific themes needing research. Message success. One objection made in regard to T&V development, modification, and communication is that it is a "top-down" government-managed to farmers, followed by feedback from farmers approach, involving little or no community up through the system is critical. participation. This critique is valid in the * Agricultural knowledge is communicated application of T&V in some countries. It should by extension agents to the maximum number of not be this way. Where communities are farmers possible. This is done by choosing organized, they can and should take over contact groups (such as cooperatives, women's management of front-line extension. However, groups, groups of school children, and these communities and cooperatives will still traditional groupings of extended family or clan) need the support of subject matter specialists to for each extension agent. The agent visits each communicate improved technology to the group, contact point as per a fixed schedule. Liberal and to communicate the group's needs to use is made of demonstration plots to show the agricultural research. nature of and benefit from the technology. All * Extension systems should be designed with farmers in the group are invited to these visits. a long-term perspective; not in the perspective Farmers will listen if the advice is seen to be of of the traditional five-year project. value. If the advice is poor or impractical, it Most recent literature on agricultural will not be accepted and this will indicate either extension convincingly argues that extension the poverty of the message, or the inadequacy systems need to be even more responsive to of the trainers. When this happens, remedial farmers' needs than the government-managed action is taken. systems now supported by the World Bank. * The management system must ensure that Farmers must be more actively encouraged to extension agents actually visit farmers. This participate in message selection and testing, and can only be done through supervision by higher- in the identification of farm-level problems to be level managers, based on their frequent visits to addressed by research and extension systems." farmers' fields to see what extension agents are This can often best be done through the farmer contributing. In this way, deficiencies can be groups which are already the major points of identified and remedied. contact with extension. Groups are important in * The public extension system needs to be African society, and need be brought into national in scope. It is too expensive and extension programs as partners in management confusing to have several public sector at the field level. Increasingly, the groups can extension systems being implemented simulta- manage field-level extension through farmer neously through various donor projects. A members, obtaining assistance by better-trained concentrated effort is required to make public but fewer extension officers. Bringing in sector extension work in a country as a whole. farmers as participants requires that extension * Focus must be directed more than agents offer "menus" of options to farmers, not originally supposed to improving local capacity pre-established and homogenous packages. For to manage extension, rather than introducing example, maize recommendations need to foreign management, which is not sustainable. involve alternatives, including both simple low- Foreigners eventually leave. By using foreigners input practices as well as complex high-input as managers, the potential of capable Africans is practices, to satisfy a range of farmer needs. not utilized, and can even be repressed. Train- Similarly, recommendations need to be available ing and preparing local staff from the beginning for a large spectrum of crops as well as to manage national institutions is critical to techniques not specific to a crop. Examples 67 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Box 6.2 T&V in Kenya and Burkina Faso Analysis was undertaken by Robert Evenson and Vishva Bindlish for Kenya and Robert Evenson, Mathurin Gbetibouo and Vishva Bindlish for Burkina Faso, to determine the impact of World Bank-financed agricultural extension on a randomly selected sample of farmers; 676 in Kenya, 3,556 in Burkina Faso. In Kenya, the national extension system was introduced in 1982, and presently covers the entire agricultural area of the country. The system was introduced into Burkina Faso in 1986, and now also covers the country's entire agricultural area. In the case of Kenya, it was found that 48 percent of sample farmers had received extension advice at one time or another since the introduction of the national system, 90 percent of whom received that advice for the first time after the project was introduced. For Burkina Faso, 44 percent of sample farmers reported direct extension contact, 71 percent of these under the project. In Kenya, 45 percent of female-headed households received direct extension advice, compared to 50 percent of male-headed households. The system works on the basis that farmers directly receiving extension advice will pass it on to other farmers. The farmers then become in effect extension agents. The results show high rates of farmer adoption of technology introduced by extension. Seventy to eighty percent of sampled farmers in Burkina Faso, and 70 percent of sample farmers in Kenya adopted the simple technologies. This is greater than the percentage of farmers in direct contact with extension agents because farmers are passing messages on to other farmers. However, the rate of adoption declines with the complexity of the extension message. In Kenya, only 10-20 percent of farmers adopted the complex recommendations of top dressing (fertilizer), stalk borer control and chemical use. Many farmers are now aware of these technologies (awareness is close to 90 percent of the Burkina Faso sample, 80 percent of the Kenya sample), but do not adopt them due to lack of finance for inputs, and labor shortages for some recommendations. The greater the complexity of the practice, the more the awareness is ascribed directly to extension. Econometric testing of the Burkina Faso data showed that crop yields are 28 percent higher for farmers belonging to extension groups compared to farmers not belonging to such groups. The results for Kenya showed that crop yields could be as much as 50 percent lower in areas not served by extension agents. Extension costs in Kenya increased from $4.44 per farm family, yearly, before the national extension project was introduced in 1982/83, to an average $5.46 per farm family per year (both in 1991 dollars) in 1983-1991. In Burkina Faso, costs declined by 30 percent from 1985/86 ($10.40 per farm family per year) to 1991 ($7.24 per farm family per year). In Burkina Faso, the number of agents was reduced under the system, while they increased in Kenya. Rates of return on the incremental investment in Kenya are computed at in excess of 100 percent. The return to a declining investment in Burkina Faso is infinite. Sources: (a) R. Evenson and V. Bindlish, "Impact Study of T&V Extension in Kenya," (draft), Agriculture Division, Africa Technical Department, World Bank, 1992; (b) R. Evenson and M. Gbetibouo, "Impact Study of T&V Extension in Burkina Faso,' (draft) Agriculture Division Africa Technical Department, World Bank, March 1992. See also Baxter, Slade and Howell, "Aid and Agricultural Extension: Evidence from the World Bank and other Donors," Technical Paper No. 87, World Bank, 1989. include agro-forestry, livestock-crop interaction, tenance systems and the consequent heavy water control and drainage, processing and demands on their time. In addition to bearing storage technologies. The establishment of such and rearing children, most African women have menus is already under way and menus are heavy responsibilities for food crop production, available in many African countries. But further working on men's fields, post-harvest process- development of menus is needed. ing, fuelwood and water provision, commodity Agricultural extension is being increasingly porterage, and household maintenance. And the focused on women's needs, using women as burdens on rural women are increasing. Grow- extension agents and contact points. The ing numbers of men leave the farms for urban information needs for women and men often and industrial jobs-in the Congo, for example, differ. This is because of the multiple roles of 70 percent of farm household heads are now women in rural production and household main- women. They also face severe constraints on 68 Technology Advancement at the Farm and Enterprise Level access to extension advice, institutional credit, and some storage and small equipment techno- and improved production, processing, and logies are likely to be neglected by the private transport technology. sector. As a result of these constraints, women often There are many other innovations possible in need advice focused on simple labor-saving extension. For example, many extension ser- technology, food production as opposed to ex- vices have become too expensive and restructur- port crop messages, low-input messages (due to ing is required (Benin and C6te d'Ivoire are ex- credit constraints), post-harvest food storage and amples where this is being done). More work processing messages. Simple labor-saving de- needs to be done on improving the quality of vices for transport, water pumping, and crop agricultural education, and in using modern husbandry are often popular with women be- communications technology to reach farmers. cause they save time. It is probably through Many NGOs provide extension services to agricultural extension that the special role and farmers. Collaboration between these NGO- needs of rural women can best be addressed.8 managed systems and the public sector system is Private sector extension should be encou- needed. In Zaire, where government services in raged where possible. This will usually be for the countryside have collapsed, the World Bank high-value crops and for the most efficient and government have agreed that field level farmers, which are the areas of interest of the extension be managed by NGOs and private private sector. Public sector extension will be enterprises in collaboration with local autho- necessary for most crops and for poor farmers, rities. Recent projects incorporating some of least attractive for the private sector, for many these improved design ideas include Kenya years to come. Contract farming discussed in Extension II, Senegal Agricultural Extension, Chapter 5 is of particular relevance to extension Tanzania Agricultural Extension, Zaire Agricul- since the private enterprise doing the contracting tural Extension, and Malawi Agricultural Exten- will often provide extension advice to contract- sion. ing farmers. Many of the Kenya horticulture enterprises provide extension advice to farmers, Livestock and Dairy as does British-American Tobacco, East African Industries in Kenya (for sunflower), and Del Livestock is an important sub-sector of agri- Monte in Cameroon (bananas). In addition, seed culture, responsible for, on average, 25 percent suppliers will provide extension advice to of agricultural GDP in Africa. The Bank's fund- farmers contracted as seed multipliers. Some ing for livestock in Sub-Saharan Africa fell from fertilizer and chemical distributors will provide 20 percent of agricultural lending in the 1970s advice on the use of their products. Encourage- (US$90 million per year) to 7 percent in the ment of the private sector in the manner dis- 1980s (US$100 million).' Many of the Bank's cussed in Chapter 5 will result in the expansion livestock projects have failed in Africa. A of such activity. Public sector extension services review by the Bank's Operations Evaluation can both collaborate with these private initia- Department entitled "The Smallholder Dimen- tives, and cede some of the extension functions sion of Livestock" found that for projects to them, focusing more on poor farmers, and on completed before 1983, livestock projects in commodities and technologies neglected by the East Africa had a 7 percent average economic private sector. These commodities are likely to rate of return, and those in West Africa a 13 include roots and tubers, many cereals, tradi- percent average rate of return. The Bank has tional fruits and vegetables having narrow local until recently been particularly unsuccessful in markets, and in some countries, cattle and pastoral areas and in parastatal ranching. In sheep. Soil conservation, agro-forestry, use of pastoral areas, the failures resulted from poor non-purchased inputs (manure, crop residues), understanding of pastoral production systems, 69 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Box 6.3. T&V in Cte d'Ivoire Cote d'Ivoire was the second country in Africa where the Bank introduced T&V extension in cooperation with government. At the time of introduction, yields in farmers fields were low compared to those on research stations. Farmers' Research Fields Staion --------- kg/ha--------- Coffee 350 3000 Cocoa 450 1500 Cotton 1300 3000 Rainfed Rice 1500 4000 Maize 2000 6000 The extension project begun in 1986, operated through three parastatal agencies: SATMACI in the forest region, CIDT in the cotton-growingNorthern region, and CIDV for grains in the South. Two research institutes collaborated (IRCC and IDESSA). A modified form of the T&V extension system was introduced, with regular extension agent visits to contact farmers, design of extension messages based on impact in farmers fields (impact was poor initially, so the messages were changed), use of demonstration plots in farmers fields, continuous staff training, and supervision of staff in the field. Important messages related to: * coton: weed control, soil fertility maintenance, striga control, use of optimal inputs, improved cropping patterns; * coffee and cocoa: improve plant populations, cleaning, thinning, and pruning; and * food crops: better varieties and husbandry techniques. These simple technological improvements were converted into practical messages which vary by level of farm sophistication and agro-climatic zone. They have been adopted by about 595,000 farms in 1989/90 (60 percent of farms), compared to 20 percent adoption of similar messages before this extension system began in 1985/86. Measurements of yield impact, though imperfect, suggest yield improvements of about 15 percent for rainfed rice, 24 percent for irrigated rice, 15 percent for maize, and up to 100 percent for coffee. These increases are still far short of research station yields indicating two remaining potential for improvement. Unfortunately, Cote d'lvoire's economic problems have resulted in an extremely sharp decline in local funding for extension. Despite this, government has been reticent until recently to downsize the system to a smaller, more simply organized structure, and to reallocate funds from staff salaries to operations. As a result, operations have been greatly curtailed. This indicates the importance of a realistically sized extension system, tailored to likely budget availability. and the assumption that well-intentioned There is considerable scope for meat and dairy Government efforts to control pasture use, im- production as import substitutes. Considerable prove animal health, and manage livestock mar- growth in demand for milk and meat is antici- kets, could help. These efforts had little impact. pated due to urbanization and growing per The parastatal ranches had the same problems as capita income. Winrock International estimates other commercially-oriented parastatal opera- that demand for livestock products in Africa will tions, and nearly always failed. Dairy develop- grow at about 4 percent per annum."o Pros- ment in East Africa, animal health and animal pects for world market prices show slowly traction in West Africa, were somewhat more rising prices in real terms (Chapter 4). successful. What worked best was smallholder On the basis of experience to date,n there dairying in Kenya, and private ranches. Para- are good opportunities for viable investment in: statal dairies failed as did parastatal ranches. * smallholder dairy with crossbred animals Livestock production should receive greater in higher elevation areas using low cost milk emphasis in future donor support in Africa. collection and processing; 70 Technology Advancement at the Farm and Enterprise Level * basic animal health care including support offset the dumping of milk. Focus should be put for private veterinarians; on private sector input supply, marketing and * smallholder cattle fattening; veterinary services. Development of mixed agri- * small ruminants (meat and milk produc- cultural dairy farms on the Kenya model has tion); considerable potential elsewhere in eastern and * forage and feed production and processing; southern Africa, as well as in the better-watered and parts of West Africa, with agricultural residues * animal traction for cultivation and and rotations addressing the important feed transport. constraints. Extension and research services can Among the least promising activities found introduce such systems. Credit needs are large were: for the dairy industry. The creation of an arti- * water development in arid rangelands ficial insemination service in Kenya was also an without an appropriate institutional framework, important ingredient for its relatively well- in part because it causes overgrazing around the developed dairy industry, because it improved water holes; the quality of the herd. Introduction of higher * support of government veterinary services yielding cross-bred dairy cows can be under- including vaccine production; taken in the most favorable climatic zones as it * artificial insemination using liquid has been in Kenya." All of the East African nitrogen; and highlands are obvious candidates. A Bank pro- * support to ranches, especially parastatal ject in Rwanda is developing this potential as ranches. did a recently-closed smallholder dairy project There is enormous scope for dairy develop- in Zambia which was highly successful. A key ment in areas of high agricultural potential in element in the success of these two projects was SSA, given the rapid population growth and for government to allow the direct sale of milk urbanization which is creating a strong demand from producers to consumers, without proces- for milk." Imports, now valued at about $700 sing. This is fully sanitary when milk is boiled; million per annum, accounted for about 22 more processing is unnecessary. The result was percent of total consumption in the early 1980s, to reduce marketing costs and to increase the and though declining to 16 percent by 1987, producer's share in the final sale price. It was provide a good import substitution market. The also a more efficient marketing mechanism than areas of high potential are found in much of those established by parastatal marketing eastern and southern Africa and parts of enterprises. Nigeria. No country among this group, except The reasons for the high productivity of Kenya, has come even close to realizing its animal health interventions is due to the dairy potential. The dairy potential of much of possibility of reducing losses due to disease, Central and western Africa is limited by the estimated presently at about $4 billion per prevalence of tsetse and trypanosomiasis in the annum. Extension advice should include animal humid and sub-humid zones. However, even husbandry recommendations." The basic tech- here there are pockets which can be developed. nology is available to control animal diseases, Dairy development will require an enabling but is not applied due to poor veterinary ser- policy environment for private sector investment vices. Improved animal health care will lead to in dairy production, marketing and processing. better livestock efficiency (better conversion of This will include appropriate price and trade available feed), and higher off-take (sales by policy assuring incentive prices to producers. farmers). Animal health initiatives which work Generally, this means allowing a free market include vaccination schemes; (Nigeria, Senegal, determination of milk prices domestically, Chad, the Central African Republic, Cameroon, behind a variable tariff which can be used to and Guinea). Low-cost tsetse control, such as 71 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank simple screens and traps which attract and kill in which project services and pastures are tsetse flies, can reduce the fly load to 5-10 managed by the pastoralists themselves through percent of the initial numbers. These are working in Zimbabwe, Zambia, and the Central Box 6.4. Animal Husbandry - Central African Republic. The basic thrust should be to African Republic privatize veterinary services to the extent possible, while focusing public services on In the Central Africa Republic, the Federation of livestock research and extension." Extension Livestock Producers, supported by a herders training program, took over the import and advice should include animal husbandry recom- distribution of all veterinary drugs. Sales increased mendations. It has been found that livestock from $30,000 in 1982 to USS 1.7 million in 1988. owners are willing to pay for veterinary services The operation is self-sustaining, with annual profit if those services are good. Where livestock of $230,000 in 1988. owners are poor, and are for the most part un- Soure: Cornelis de Hlasn, Ivestock Developm2ent able to afford private veterinary care, private and Bank Lending in Sub-Saharan Afics," unpublished non-professional animal health care assistants note, Africa Technical Department, World Bank, 1990. can be effective. These "para-professionals" or auxiliaries presently provide animal health care for village poultry in Burkina Faso, work-oxen pastoral associations. This approach emphasizes in Chad, and to nomadic livestock owners in support to private veterinarians (rather than CAR, Niger and Somalia. These auxiliaries exclusive support to public veterinary services need supervision and training by professional as in the past), the sale by the associations of veterinarians.` inputs needed for livestock raising (instead of Smallholder cattle-fattening projects have sale by governments), private sector livestock been successful in Nigeria, Cameroon, and marketing (rather than public sector), and Senegal with stall feeding and fattening of small pasture management by the associations. Tradi- groups of cattle using agricultural by- tional methods of dispute resolution and respon- products." This is a good model for introduc- sibility are incorporated into some of these ing smallholders to livestock-raising, and can be projects. The associations should be broad-based combined with animal traction. Both credit and so as to involve local communities. Preferably feed are required. There is enormous potential they are to be based on traditional associations. for expanded use of livestock for transport in The more limited role of government in Africa, to serve village economies, requiring livestock development in pastoral areas should less financial investment and maintenance capa- be focused on quarantine, epidemiological city than does motorized transport. monitoring, research, and extension. Livestock Both commercial and backyard poultry pro- projects employing variants of this model are duction can be developed in many countries currently supported in Mali, Mauritania, Niger, when there is adequate supply of feedgrains. the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Uganda, This should be an element of research and Guinea, and Cameroon. They show some extension programs, and should be fully private success, but are highly dependent on the quality sector-owned and operated. Winrock Interna- of association leadership." In some cases, tional estimates that poultry production, limited government officials view these associations as largely by feed supply, can be increased by competitors, and consequent government efforts more than 5 percent per annum. Concentrates to manage the associations are a continuous will become more important as a feed. problem. Another issue involves the conflict A new approach to livestock development in between farmer settlers encroaching on pasture pastoral areas was developed several years ago, land, and pastoralists. In many cases farmers obtain land simply by settling on it. 72 Technology Advancement at the Farm and Enterprise Level Bax 6.5 Paitoral Associations in the Sahel Some achievements of pastoral associations are as follows: * In Senegal, the pastoral associations negotiated boundaries with neighboring groups, and introduced resource management plans for their village plots which reportedly improved the condition and increased the carrying capacity of these rangelands. An effective functional literacy plan was introduced which trained 9000 pastoralists. * In Mauritania, the pastoral associations are very actively involved in environmental protection, notably in the prevention of tree cutting and grass fires. * In Niger, water development is made fully conditional on pastoral organization, and resource management plans are now being developed by unions of associations. * In parts of Mali, the pastoral associations are now organizing their drug supply and cattle marketing. Source: Cornelis de Haan, "Livestock Development and Bank Lending in Sub-Saharan Africa," unpublished note, Africa Technical Department, World Bank, 1990. Fisheries from foreign fishing, which is necessary since foreign fleets are usually self-contained and The potential of African fisheries" both provide little benefit other than taxes and marine and continental, is large, with a royalties to the countries whose waters are maximum sustainable yield estimated at 8 fished. Licensing agreements with foreign fleets million tons a year. However, the catch is generally need to be improved. Increasingly, declining (it fell from 7.5 million tons in 1977 coastal states should develop their own fisheries to 5.9 million tons in 1985) because of capabilities through policies and financing that overfishing, climatic factors, and reductions in encourage private sector involvement (as river flows and lake levels. The value of indicated in Chapter 5). African fish exports is about $650 million a Development of aquaculture can be year. African fleets account for about 30 percent encouraged in some countries through both of the total, foreign fleets for 45 percent, inland adaptive research and the extension of fisheries for 24 percent, and aquaculture for I aquaculture techniques to farmers and other percent. interested individuals. Integrated agriculture and Many African countries need fisheries aquaculture farming packages are of consider- resource management plans that identify fishing able interest. The artificial stocking of natural potential and the opportunities for exploiting this and man-made bodies of water has some potential in a manner consistent with long-term potential. Finally, artisanal ("canoe") fisheries conservation and with environmental can be assisted through support to organizations considerations. The plans must also provide for of fishermen. This support should also be given the necessary policies and institutional to women, who have an important role in development. To date, fisheries management has smallscale fisheries and in fish marketing. been very poor. Off-shore fisheries are exploited However, donor assistance needs to be prudent, largely by foreign fleets with little benefit given the many failures of the past. Fisheries accruing locally. investment is a private sector activity. Systems to monitor and control foreign fleets Governments can regulate, help plan, provide are needed in many coastal countries. Such technical advice (extension) as well as tax. systems will increase the amount of taxes taken Governments should not invest in commercial 73 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank fishery activities, except in some cases indirectly Many of these issues are created by politics. through support to credit institutions. It is politically more expedient, for example, for Irrigation and Drainage Box 6.6. Irrigation in Nigeria Irrigation and drainage constitute both a Nigeria's irrigation potential is between 1.6 and 3technical input to agriculture (water), and a 1.9 million hectares, compared to 174,000 ha which special category of infrastructure. Africa has are presently irrigated in an intensive manner. It has been estimated that irrigated cropping can limited irrigation. It has 2 percent of the world's produce four to five times per hectare the value of water storage, but 10-12 percent of that part of rainfed cropping on average, which is more than the world's population which live in unfavorable the average in SSA. The problem in tapping this climatic conditions for agriculture. Only 6 potential is to keep in-"estment costs low in order percent of SSA's permanent crop land is that irrigation is economically and financially viable. Investment costs cannot exceed about irrigated (Annex Table 8), compared to 26 $4000/ha if irrigation is to be financially viable. Of percent in India, and 44 percent in China. enormous interest from this perspective are small- Africa's irrigation potential is about 20-25 scale farmer initiated lift irrigation from rivers and million hectares; only 15-20 percent of that shallow wells. About 84,000 ha are already potential is actually exploited. The potential irrigated this way, using pumps. In addition about importance of irrigation is suggested by the fact 17,000 ha have been irrigated by farmers using small motorized pumpsets to exploit shallow that irrigated agriculture in SSA produces about aquifers in the flood plains (fadamas). Investment 3.5 times more per hectare than rainfed costs are about $1200/ha, and annual operating agriculture.' costs are $260/ha. The Bank estimates an economic The performance ratings of existing and rate of return on such investments of about 30%. In completed irrigation projects financed by the contrast, public irrigation schemes have capital d .k costs of about $15,000/ha. It is estimated that no public sector irrigation investment in Nigeria has SSA perform worse than the average agricul- been economic. Certainly, investments in large tural project. Many irrigation schemes in Africa storage dams and downstream systems have been have tended to be extremely expensive by world uneconomic. standards. Sometimes, this has been due to poor S A Bank Coopersive Programme, information about water availability and costs. Nigeria, Irrigation Sub-Sector Review, Report No 89/91 Water distribution systems are typically ineffi- CP-NIR 45 SR, 18 February 1992. cient, due to poor engineering and poor manage- ment. Often, it is a government agency which manages irrigation, and these agencies have per- formed no better than the agricultural parastatals governments to invest in new irrigation facilities discussed in Chapter 5. Farmers are treated as rather than to increase the efficiency of existing "beneficiaries" rather than participants. They schemes through better water demand therefore, do not participate in managing management policy. Water demand can often be schemes, or in the maintenance of schemes. reduced and made more efficient by increasing Often, operation and maintenance by govern- water user changes to cover a greater percentage ment services is underfunded, so that it does not of operation and maintenance costs of schemes, get done. Cost recovery is typically limited, so or by introducing water conservation measures. that farmers do not even participate financially Governments often neglect fee collection, the in operation and maintenance. Government- training of water users, or the development of managed irrigation projects in Sudan and institutions which manage water. Often, Nigeria reflect nearly all of these problems. irrigation projects fail to account for other users 74 Technology Advancement at the Farm and Enterprise Level of the water, such as domestic water supply, management, and conservation). Generally, this other countries, or groundwater. Suboptimal needs to be done by river basin. Multi-country allocation of water is the result. agreements will be necessary since many river Generally, large-scale schemes have fared basins cover several countries. Efforts to worse in Africa than have small-scale schemes. allocate water rights between countries sharing The problems highlighted here have been most the same rivers, as in the Nile basin, will have severe in the large schemes. Many (though not large long-term payoffs, but this may involve all) large schemes in SSA have suffered from technical assistance rather than heavy investment huge cost overruns due to poor design and in large schemes. New schemes will have to be shoddy construction. A common problem in prepared in the context of water resources these schemes is the neglect of drainage management plans, under which water conserva- requirements and salinity problems, thus tion and demand management options are increasing future costs and diluting benefits. exploited." Inadequate soil analysis and hydrological Less complex, small-scale irrigation analysis are also common, as is poor schemes, run by either individual farmers or management by government project authorities. communities appear most viable (see Box 6.6 on Despite these common problems, a few large- the Nigeria experience with irrigation). The scale schemes have had acceptable economic Niger Small-scale Irrigation project is such a returns (greater than or equal to 10 percent): scheme. Small-scale irrigation projects deve- Ethiopia Amibara, Mali Mopti Rice I, Sudan loped in the Kenya Baringo Arid and Semi-Arid Rahud Irrigation, and Sudan New Halfa. Large- Lands Project are another successful example. scale schemes have the advantage of covering For large-scale schemes, investment in better large areas, and can therefore have a large operation and maintenance is likely to be most impact on production. Hence, standard rules in viable. In some cases, expansion of large sys- favor of small-scale schemes only, though based tems may be economically viable. New large- on some experience, are not universally valid. scale schemes are likely in most cases to be Although experience does not permit final least viable. The result of such strategic thrusts conclusions, new schemes, especially large will be that the 20-25 million hectares which ones, should be skeptically scrutinized. To can potentially be irrigated, will not be because resolve the performance problem, much greater many schemes are uneconomic. A detailed emphasis is needed on improved management analysis completed by the FAO for Nigeria and the improved funding of operation and shows that most of its irrigation potential cannot maintenance in irrigation projects. In general, be exploited economically. An analysis of the idea of maximum ownership and economic irrigation potential in Africa is being management by farmers themselves rather than undertaken as part of the development of an by government, seems to hold promise. The irrigation strategy for Africa. development of water users groups with considerable management authority is Other Farm Inputs promising. Adequate water charges are vital, at least covering operation and maintenance Technology dissemination requires efficient (O&M), especially when collected by water mechanisms for the sale of farm inputs, users to maintain their own systems. Irrigation equipment, and livestock. Governments in projects need to be developed within the context Africa have largely failed to provide such of comprehensive water resources management mechanisms when government itself has taken plans which look at all uses of water (not just over this function. The import, domestic agriculture) and various methods of satisfying manufacture and marketing of farm inputs and likely demand (supply augmentation, demand investment goods, as well as livestock should be 75 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank left primarily to the private sector. Governments often inadequate supply of modem inputs due to should have a facilitating role; to ensure that the various supply constraints---the main ones are regulatory environment does not discourage poor road links and inefficient distribution private sector participation in farm input supply enterprises (most often either government or and to provide advice through the extension donor). Not only do these constraints result in service to farmers, and to farmers' groups the inadequate supply of inputs such as ferti- interested in purchasing and distributing these lizer, but also in the supply of the wrong kind goods to members. Government research and of inputs, or at best, late delivery. Poor roads extension services, along with private voluntary also increase the costs of input supply. In these organizations, should be active in developing circumstances, it would generally be preferable prototypes of inputs and investment goods to allocate scarce public funds to improving (better seed varieties, new hand-tools, animal- roads, or strengthening distribution networks, or drawn equipment, cross-bred cows, grain training farmers, rather than to providing sub- storage facilities, energy efficient stoves, hand sidies to farmers for the use of modem inputs. pumps, small-scale agricultural processing Research into better inputs, and the distribution technology, etc.). These innovations can sub- of prototypes to the private sector for distri- sequently be produced and distributed by the bution is preferable to allocating scarce private sector, especially rural traders and government resources to direct subsidies." artisans. Production and marketing of farm Farmers themselves, either as individuals or inputs and investment goods is among the most in groups, can often participate more fully in promising for the development of the African input distribution. In the case of seed for "endogenous" sector, since these products tend example, government research establishments to be relatively simple to make and relatively can usefully develop improved seed varieties. In small, and hence are able to be handled by the case of improved hybrid seed, government small entrepreneurs and tradesmen. What is research institutes could distribute base seed to required is the development of a free market in seed companies and farmers cooperatives for farm inputs and equipment, unfettered by multiplication. Seed companies and cooperatives government regulation, except for that necessary can then sell to farmers. Governments can help to protect natural resources. This will require farmers to multiply seed for sale to companies the enabling policy environment for private and cooperatives through extension. Farmers sector development combined with pro-active and/or private enterprises will have no incentive private sector assistance discussed in Chapter 5, to multiply and sell seed if government agencies and good research and extension. distribute seed at a subsidized price. In some A major issue is the tendency for govern- cases, research and distribution of self-pollinated ments and donors to subsidize the use of farm varieties of maize seed, though having less yield inputs, especially fertilizers. The argument for potential than hybrid maize, may be best since input subsidies is based on the agronomic truism farmers can handle the distribution of seeds that more use of modern inputs such as fertilizer without distributor intervention. greatly increases production. If a principal Another problem with government subsidies reason for low fertilizer use (as well as other for modern inputs such as chemical fertilizer is input use) is a lack of farmer demand for the that it encourages farmers to shift to the input at market prices, then the use of fertilizers subsidized input and away from unsubsidized and other inputs can be stimulated by a subsidy. alternatives which may actually be cheaper for There are several fallacies to this position. First, the economy to provide (such as organic matter, experience suggests that the bottleneck is most inter-cropping or managed fallow). 76 Technology Advancement at the Farm and Enterprise Level Notes 1. CIRAD is the French Agricultural Research Center which manages considerable agricultural research throughout West Africa. IITA is the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture based in Nigeria, but with research projects in many African countries. ICRAF is the International Center for Research on Agro-Forestry based in Kenya. 2. CFDT is the French Cotton Company. 3. For a pessimistic but plausible and well-argued perspective on technological availability, see Stephen Carr, "Technology for Small Scale Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa: Experience with Food Crop Production in Five Major Ecological Zones," World Bank Technical Paper, No. 109, October 1989. For an optimistic perspective focusing on "Sustainable Technologies" see Paul Harrison, The Greening of Africa, Earthscan, Paladin Grafton Books, London, 1987. Both capture elements of the truth despite seeming so inconsistent. Many imported agricultural technologies were not appropriate to African farmers, as Carr shows. However, there are many site-specific cases of highly successful technological transfers in Africa, as Harrison points out. The challenge is to identify the latter and avoid the former. 4. SPAAR, "Framework for Action in Agricultural Research in the SADC Countries," Washington, D.C., October 1991; SPAAR, "Framework for Action in Agricultural Research in the Sahel Countries," Washington, D.C., October 1991; Carl Eicher of Michigan State University, warned of this situation for many years, and some of the SPAAR recommendations are inspired by his work. For his most recent comments, see Carl Eicher, "Revitalizing the CGIAR system and NARSs in the Third World," Staff Paper No. 92-73, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, November 1992. 5. For an excellent discussion, see V. Venikatesan and Lisa Schwartz, Agricultural Services Initiative, Report based on the World Bank Workshop held at Lilongwe in 1991, "Agriculture and Rural Development Series No. 4," Africa Region, World Bank, June 1992. 6. University-trained agriculturalists (in some countries, the training takes place monthly). 7. V. Venkatesan and Lisa Schwartz, Agricultural Services Initiative, Report based on the World Bank Workshop held at Lilongwe in February 1991, op. cit. 8. Katherine Saito and C. Jean Weidman, "Agricultural Extension for Women Farmers in Africa," World Bank PRE Working Paper, No. 398, April 1990. 9. Cornelis de Haan, "Livestock Development and Bank Lending in Sub-Saharan Africa," (Unpublished note), Africa Technical Department, World Bank, 1990. 10. Winrock International, "Assessment of Animal Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa" (draft), Morrilton, Arkansas, U.S.A., 1992. 77 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank 11. Michael Walshe and others, Dalry Development in Sub-Saharan Africa, World Bank Technical Paper No. 135, 1991; Cornelis de Haan, op. cit. 12. Michael Walshe and others, Dairy Development in Sub-Saharan Afica, ibid. See also Winrock International, "Assessment of Animal Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa" (draft), ibid. 13. These prescriptions are derived from Michael Walshe and others, ibid. 14. Cornelis de Haan, "Livestock Development and Bank Lending in Sub-Saharan Africa," op. cit; Michael Walshe and others, Dairy Development in Sub-Saharan Africa, op. cit.; Winrock International, "Assessment of Animal Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa" (draft), op. cit. 15. Winrock International, ibid. 16. Cornelis de Haan, "Livestock Development and Bank Lending in Sub-Saharan Africa," op. cit. 17. Cornelis de Haan, ibid.; and Winrock International, "Assessment of Animal Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," (draft), op. cit. 18. Mike Speirs and Ole Olsen, Indigenous Integrated Farming Systems in the Sahel, World Bank Technical Paper No. 174, August 1992. 19. Taken from World Bank, Sub-Saharan Africa, from Crsis to Sustainable Growth, A Long-Term Perspective Study, 1989, and suggestions made in a communication from the FAO. 20. Akhtar Elahi, Initiating Memorandum, "Review of Irrigation Strategy in Sub-Saharan Africa," (draft), Agriculture Division, Technical Department, Africa Region, World Bank, August 1992. 21. The Technical Department of the Africa Region along with the World Bank's Central Agriculture Department, in collaboration with British ODA and FAO will develop an irrigation strategy for SSA in 1993. 22. Ibid. 23. Derek Byerlee, in "Strategies for Technical Change in Small-Farm Agriculture: Lessons and Challenges, with Particular Reference to Maize in Sub-Saharan Africa," (draft), CIMMYT, Mexico, August 1992, develops arguments for and against fertilizer subsidies. 78 7. Development of Farmer Organizations; Empowerment of Rural Populations Importance of Farmers' Groups presently have components addressed to and Associations cooperatives or farmer organizations.' Informal farmers groups can and do Much more of the task of managing and undertake all of the activities of cooperatives. In financing agricultural services will have to be many cases, informal groups existed in done by farmers groups because of the inability traditional societies, and these traditional of governments to manage and finance all rural groupings (clan, tribe, and so on) can in some development activity, and because of the present cases manage agricultural services and form the absence of a strong private sector in most of basis of farmer organizations. They are often Africa. It has been found in most ex-post effective contact points for agricultural extension agricultural project evaluation that active farmer and research services, and a source of feedback involvement in project design and execution is to these services. The partnership of farmers a frequent ingredient of success. This is often with government in managing services might most easily arranged by working with farmers' also help to disseminate simple agricultural and groups. processing technologies, widely spread in the Cooperative-owned enterprises are the population. This appears to be happening with common formal farmers organizations, women's groups in Kenya and Nigeria, for recognized by law in most countries. example. Water users groups have been found Cooperatives undertake agricultural marketing, to be effective management organizations for processing and input supply activities. They may water distribution at the field level in irrigation be particularly important when parastatals are projects. Pastoralist associations are effective closed as part of adjustment operations, and management organizations for pasture prior to the development of a strong private management and livestock input supply. sector. But even when there is a private sector, Cooperative savings and loan associations have cooperative marketing, input supply, and often been found to be effective financial processing enterprises increase competition, and intermediaries. thereby benefit farmers. Cooperatives can be efficient, using low-cost cooperative member Problems of the Past labor, motivated by self-interest since the cooperative members own the enterprise. Farmers' groups are generally regarded in Cooperatives are also often found to provide an project design as vehicles for the provision of education function to members, in crop services rather than as desirable objectives in husbandry, credit and marketing. Nearly 50 and of themselves. A common mistake in donor percent of Bank agricultural operations in the assistance to cooperatives and to farmers' 1970s and early 1980s involved cooperatives groups has been the view that such assistance and similar organizations.' The value of should be provided through government, and cooperatives has therefore been realized for that the objective is to provide a service of some some time. About thirty-nine ongoing Bank kind to farmer members of the group. agriculture projects in Sub-Saharan Africa Government staff were often placed in 79 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank cooperatives as managers and financial creation by farmers of democratically controllers. Government funds were granted to constituted organizations. The donors have cooperatives for investments, and farmers were begun investing more in cooperative enterprises not encouraged to put up their own equity. This and in informal farmer groups, as part of the approach reduced members' management effort to build African capacity to manage autonomy and responsibility. It also did not agriculture. An example is FAO's People consider the interests that the farmers might or Participation Program, which calls for the might not have in cooperating-the objective involvement of members in the creation and was the service to be provided. The result was management of rural organizations. Another is commonly that such cooperatives operated like the effort by the Caisse Frangaise de government parastatals, with only tepid farmer Ddveloppement to support informal farmers' interest. Examples of these errors are found in groups. The core of the approach to supporting the cotton cooperatives in Kenya, the farmer groups of any kind is to establish an Cooperative Credit Bank in Kenya, farmers' enabling environment for these groups, where cooperatives in Benin and Nigeria and the governments do not restrict the scope of their cooperative banks in the Francophone parts of business activity.' On the other hand, farmer Cameroon. Donors have facilitated this organizations should not be given monopolies approach by providing their funds for for crop marketing, credit, or input distribution, cooperatives through governments, and as this inhibits efficiency improvements by the supporting designated ministries as supervisors cooperative. This problem exists among Kenya's of cooperatives. A World Bank Operations coffee cooperatives for example, which have a Evaluation Report found that cooperative and monopoly in the marketing of smallholder group development suffered most when these coffee, thus reducing the incentive to maintain organizations were used simply to facilitate efficiency. The regulatory environment should project implementation, without developing their be very limited. Cooperatives or farmers' capacity to assume management. Where farmer groups should not, for example, be required to management, autonomous from government, undertake economic and social functions was allowed to develop, and where the farmer peripheral to their business activities. However, organization or cooperative had a business legal protection for cooperative members, and reason to exist (i.e. made money for its instruments for removing unsatisfactory members), there was success. The successful managers and employers, are needed. Kenya coffee cooperatives are largely auto- Cooperatives and farmer organizations with nomous farmer-owned cooperative enterprises.' well-planned business activities can operate So are the Cameroon Cooperative Credit Socie- efficiently without subsidies, and pay ties (CAMCCUL). commercial rates of interest. Good management and financial strength are as important for The Future: Farmer Organizations cooperatives and farmer organizations as they as Autonomous Farmer-Managed are for private enterprises. Cooperatives are Business Enterprises unlikely to function well if farmer members have no stake in them, through a financial or There has been a recent increase in the other contribution. Democratic control (one number of rural organizations and cooperatives, member, one vote), and the equitable as governments have introduced more liberal distribution of cooperative income are also of marketing and investment regulations. The vital importance for maintaining honest recent evolution of some African political organizations which serve member interests. systems to greater democratization has also Such organizations can have a secondary created a climate more conductive to the benefit, which is to teach members democratic 80 Development of Farmer Organizations; Empowerment of Rural Populations Box 7.1. Cooperatives in Nigeria areas in which governments can help. This might be done through a form of cooperative A study of cooperatives in Nigeria found a long extension, providing training at the cooperative history of formal cooperation dating back to site. 1907, when cocoa farmers established the first Farmer-managed cooperative saving and loan cooperatives. Today there are possibly as many associations in several African countries are as 40,000 cooperatives in Nigeria. The study found that cooperatives could fill the void in working well. Rwanda's Banques Populaire, marketing, credit and input supply activities Cameroon's CAMCCUL, Benin's local and created by Government withdrawal coincident regional mutual savings societies, and Burundi's with the structural adjustment program. Despite cooperative banks are examples. Government this potential, Nigeria's cooperatives are in agricultural credit institutions have not suc- crisis due to the excessive Government interference characteristic of much of Africa, ceeded (as reported in Chapter 5) while farmer- resulting in limited farmer adhesion. When managed institutions have, at least in these combined with weak and often politicized countries. Farmers elsewhere are developing management, and untrained members, most similar organizations: Togo, COte d'Ivoire and Nigerian cooperatives are marginal as business Senegal are examples. enterprises. The most important recommenda- The World Bank has reviewed cooperative tions of the study are as follows: (a) Govern- ment should withdraw from cooperative legislation in Kenya, Ghana and Nigeria. These management, leaving cooperatives to be reviews have suggested the need for major over- managed by members. This will require a haul in such legislation to allow cooperatives fundamental revision of the cooperative law, sufficient management autonomy from govern- which dates from 1948. (b) A legal framework ment, while establishing legal protection for should be established which protects members of meot,rwie esblis lega proteofr cooperatives from unscrupulous managers, and cooperative members from predatory takeover indicates appropriate accounting and auditing by the unscrupulous, and requiring financial mechanisms. (c) Cooperative managers need supervision and transparency (through, for training, which can be provided by NGOs, by example, audit of accounts). Donor projects cooperatives from other countries, and by which finance local NGOs to provide support to Nigeria's cooperative colleges. (d) Laws which farmers organizations, tend to be most success- presently exclude cooperatives from fertilizer and crop marketing need to be eliminated. (e) ful.' This has worked in Senegal for example, Support from NGOa and foreign cooperatives and is increasingly the preferred model of for Nigeria's cooperative credit system should USAID, the Caisse Frangaise de Developpe- be sought to assist cooperative credit societies to ment, and German GTZ. Alternatively, a coope- become autonomous member managed banks. rative support (largely training) institution Soure:Turo Turtianen and Pekka Hussi, Nigeria independent from government could be the Cooperative Movement", (draft), Agriculture focus of donor assistance, which in turn would Operation Division, western Africa Department and provide technical support to farmers organiza- Africa Technical, World Bank, 1992. tions. Donors can also review and contribute to legislation and regulations with respect to farmer organizations, to enable cooperatives to political principles, and subsequently to become operate as member-controlled, business entities a force for more democratic societies. Coopera- in competition with the private and public tives and other farmer organizations can only sectors. Donor support to farmers organizations work if there is a felt need by members for will be a major tool for increasing African capa- them. There will not be such a need if members city to manage agriculture, and improving the obtain no benefit or have no voice in the asso- quality of agriculture labor. ciation. Training of management and the deve- Following at least part of the above philo- lopment of functional literacy for members are sophy, several donors are supporting "coopera- 81 A Strategy to Develop Agricukure in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank tance in which cooperative associations from also support this approach, and several inter- industrial countries provide advice and support national associations are involved (the Inter- to those in African countries. The Swedish national Cooperative Alliance, the World Coun- cooperative center is now doing this in Kenya, cil of Credit Unions, and the United States Na- Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The French, tional Cooperatives Business Association). This German and United States bilateral aid agencies helps avoid excessive government interference. Notes 1. Quoted in Pekka Hussi and others, "The Development of Cooperatives and Other Rural Organizations," (draft), World Bank Technical Paper, August 18, 1992. 2. Pekka Hussi and others, ibid. 3. "World Bank Experience with Rural Development, 1965-86," Operations Evaluation Department, World Bank, 1987. 4. Described in Pekka Hussi and others, "The Development of Cooperatives and Other Rural Organization" (draft), op. cit. 5. Pekka Hussi and others, "The Development of Cooperatives and Other Rural Organizations" (draft), op. cit. 82 8. Infrastructure and Town-Country Linkages; Developing Roads, Water Supply, Education and Health in Rural Areas What is Rural Infrastructure? roads use land more intensively, more readily adopt efficient techniques and modern inputs, The most basic elements of rural infra- produce more for the market, and employ more structure comprise rural roads, markets in rural labor. This is because farmers with access to towns, and rural water supply facilities. It also roads then have access to output and input includes social infrastructure, most importantly markets. Incentives to increase production and rural health and education facilities. At a some- marketed output are blunted if the physical what higher level of development, it includes barriers and, hence, the costs of moving goods rural electrification, telecommunication faci- to and from local markets are too high. The lities, and access to electronic mass media. national transport system linking local markets During the 1970s, when integrated rural deve- to cities and to ports is important to agriculture lopment was in vogue, each of these com- for the same reason. ponents were typically included in the rural Rural transport infrastructure is highly development package. Rural infrastructure is a deficient in most countries, and throughout most very loose concept however, sometimes con- of Sub-Saharan Africa, distances from villages ceived narrowly to include only roads and water to major towns and to all-weather roads are supply and sometimes to include social infra- substantial. Rural road density has been structure. The use here is brad to capture the estimated at about 32 m/kml in Western Africa concept that the inputs necessary for agricultural and 36 m/kml in eastern and southern Africa. development are broad indeed. Agriculture Moreover, Nigeria, Cameroon and C6te cannot be developed in isolation from physical d'Ivoire account for more than half the rural infrastructure development, rural health and roads in Western Africa. Tanzania, Zaire, education, or even from sound urban develop- Zimbabwe, and Madagascar have more than ment policy. two-thirds of the rural roads in eastern and southern Africa between them.' In Nigeria, Transport with its fairly dense network of rural roads (by African standards), rural road density today is The importance of transport rural about 90 m/km, barely equal to that of India in infrastructure for agricultural development is 1951. A reasonable target density, based on well- established. Recent research in Asia found Indian areas with comparable population that in villages with better access to roads, densities would be 730 mn/k'. Where rural fertilizer costs were 14 percent lower, wages roads exist, they are often poorly maintained. were 12 percent higher, and crop output was 32 Indeed, maintenance standards have deteriorated percent higher.' Research in a number of SSA considerably during the 1980s: 42 percent of countries has shown that adequate transport unpaved roads in West Africa and 47 percent in links to product markets stimulate agricultural East Africa were in poor condition in 1988, intensification-even where population densities compared with 28 percent and 44 percent, are comparatively low.' Farmers with access to respectively, in 1984.' 83 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank The availability and reliability of transport transport, especially animal-drawn implements, services is often further compromised by and off-road transport. Governmental involve- restrictive transport sector policies and trucking ment in these areas would have to be largely regulations. Transport monopolies, for example, facilitative and promotional. Improvements in are often granted to parastatal companies or to off-road transport are essential for rural people's well-connected individuals, and entry into the well-being and productivity. The extremely poor industry is often restricted even where it would state of off-road transport in much of Sub- be highly beneficial. Inefficient procurement and Saharan Africa severely reduces the timeliness distribution of motor fuels by monopolistic and quantities of agricultural inputs and outputs parastatals is often another impediment to the moved to and from motorable roads, thus acting expansion of transport companies. Price controls as a powerful brake on agricultural productivity on motor fuels tend to reduce fuel availability in and growth.' Rural women, in particular, will the countryside because they make it unprofit- benefit very considerably from such improve- able to invest in transporting and selling motor ments. fuels in locations distant from the port cities. Although rural roads and secondary roads As a result of these various constraints, connecting the countryside to cities and towns is agricultural markets are poorly integrated, inter- the immediately critical transport requirement regional and inter-seasonal price variations are for agriculture, the picture is more complicated. far greater than they would be in the presence Agriculture is partly dependent on exports in of efficient transport facilities, and incentives to much of Africa. The development of major switch from subsistence to market production infrastructure such as primary roads and ports is are often weak. Where there is surplus farm important in reducing the cost of exported produce, it often has to be carried over products necessary to stay competitive in world considerable distances to markets or to roadsides markets. Furthermore, farmers need information from where vehicles can move it to processing about technical options and market oppor- facilities and/or consuming centers. Women tunities. Improved communications more bear the brunt of the rural transport burden generally are therefore required, including since much of rural commodity transport (water, telecommunications and access to electronic fuel, farm inputs and farm produce) is done in mass media. The point here is that agriculture is the form of headloading by women. Studies intimately linked to the development of an throughout SSA show that women and older economy, and its infrastructure, in total. It will girls carry loads of 10-25 kilograms (sometimes be argued subsequently, however, that roads as much as 40 kilograms) and can manage 3-5 serving rural areas have in the majority of cases kilometers per hour, depending on terrain and been the most neglected. load weight. Strategies for investment, operation and Rural roads and improved tracks navigable maintenance of road development are beyond for animal-drawn vehicles are crucial for rural the scope of this strategy paper. In general, it development. Planning, construction and main- has been found that important elements are tenance should involve the local communities as (a) good planning with government involvement; well as local contractors and technicians. This (b) construction and maintenance of major will help ensure that siting is in accordance with infrastructure by private contractors supervised local needs and that construction and main- by the most decentralized government units tenance makes maximum use of labor-intensive possible; and (c) construction of rural roads by techniques to keep down costs and provide local either private contractors or rural communities, off-season employment, and maintenance in partnership with local Major efforts are also needed to promote the communities. The local administrations found at use of locally appropriate intermediate means of the community or county level are often best 84 Infrastructure and Town-Country Linkages; Developing Roads, Water Supply, Education and Health in Rural Areas able to contract and supervise the building and human use can be used instead for other maintaining of rural roads. An excellent productive activities, attending school or example of a workable system of this sort is technical training, tending to children's health found in Senegal where small contractors are and education needs, or simply rest and re- hired by a public organization (AGETIP) to cuperation. Rural water supply investments must construct and maintain roads. be planned and implemented, if not operated with and by local women. Water Supply It is for the preceding reasons that rural water supply was often developed in rural The rural water supply situation constitutes development projects during the 1970s, recog- another key constraint to rural development. nizing the important links between agricultural Less than 20 percent of Nigeria's rural labor productivity and access to safe water, in population, for instance, have convenient access addition to the intrinsic human welfare benefits to safe water. There is a direct link between of water. These projects tended not to work well safe potable water and the reduction of infant because rural development authorities and mortality. Water-borne and water-related governments were ill-equipped to develop pathogens are major causes of seasonally or appropriate water technologies, or to undertake permanently debilitating diseases which severely construction and maintenance. More recent affect agricultural labor productivity. views of development suggest that rural water Women's stake in convenient access to safe supply is sufficiently complicated to require water and sanitation facilities is particularly self-standing water development programs. The high, given their almost exclusive responsibility best results are obtained by a combination of for collecting, transporting, boiling and storing government or local community contracting with water for drinking and cooking and for washing private suppliers who undertake to equip local household effects and laundry, for disposing of villages, communities or farms. These con- waste water, and for maintaining household tractors will often be artisans. Governments can sanitation standards and facilities. Access to obtain prototype pumps or other equipment from sufficient quantities of quality water is an donors. Maintenance is best done by owners increasingly more time-consuming problem for (which are often local communities), sometimes many rural women. Assuming a daily contracting with private suppliers. requirement of about 10 liters of water per person, a six-member household needs 60 liters Rural Health and Education of water daily-almost 22 tons of water each year. If a women carries 20 liters of water per There is some argument about whether social trip, this implies that she would have to make infrastructure development in rural areas should three trips daily to the water source. If the water be part of an agricultural strategy. The source is 20 minutes away from the home, argument in favor is that expanding numbers of about two hours daily will be needed to meet uneducated, unhealthy rural people are unlikely the household's water needs. to be able to develop agriculture at the Convenient sources of safe water are of necessary speed. AIDS makes this situation all enormous importance to improve human health the more apparent. A more slowly expanding, and, hence, agricultural labor productivity, and better educated and healthy rural population to contribute substantially to a reduction in would be better able to develop agriculture. The infant mortality. A major benefit to women and reason for including population policy as an girls resulting from better access to safe water agricultural input is that rapid population growth is that time formerly spent fetching water from superimposed on only slowly changing agri- distant sources and preparing such water for cultural, land tenure, and fuelwood-gathering 85 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank practices is contributing to deterioration of the Food and Nutrition rural environment. This in turn is inhibiting agricultural growth. Furthermore, agricultural Closely related to improving rural health and growth must be faster to feed and employ a education is assuring adequate quantities of food more rapidly expanding population. and nutrition. This was established as a separate Analysis under way in the World Bank objective from agricultural growth in Chapter 3, suggests that one of the most important explana- although the most important solution is ex- tory variables for variations in crop yields over panded agricultural production. To this extent, time and between countries is the level of agricultural development contributes to food education of the rural population (the other security. However, improving the food security important variables are climate and the policy of rural peoples is also an input to production, environment). Educated farmers are more pro- for the same reason that improved health is an ductive than uneducated farmers, with other input. Better-fed rural people are likely to be factors affecting agriculture held constant. healthier and more productive. In addition, with Education is therefore an input to agriculture in their food security assured, they are more likely the same manner as is infrastructure, irrigation to take the risks of agricultural innovation. water, or fertilizer. Similarly, healthy agri- As discussed in Chapter 3, the food security cultural workers will be more productive than problem takes an agricultural strategy paper far unhealthy workers. afield, since there are important elements of Rural health and education must be food security which are not related to agricul- concerned with reducing the rate of growth of ture. In cases of transitory food insecurity due population. A good target would be for to drought or civil war, food aid will be the population growth rates to fall to about 2.3 most important element of a food security percent per annum within the next thirty years." strategy. Public works programs which hire This can be done by focusing more on creating poor people, providing cash which can be used a demand by individual Africans for smaller to buy food, or providing food for work can be families. This in turn will require better important in both transitory food crises, and to education programs, targeted more to young deal with more chronic problems of localized women. Second, better health care services food deficiencies. For chronically poor people, which increase the likelihood of child survival unable to obtain sufficient food, a poverty reduce the demand for large families. This is alleviation strategy is likely to be necessary, the because one cause of high demand for children content of which is beyond the scope of this by Africans is to assure the survival of at least paper.' Food subsidies, feeding programs, and some children, given the generally high infant other nutrition interventions are likely to be mortality rate. Information provided through justifiable in addressing the special needs of family planning about benefits of smaller these hard to reach people. Some projects have families will be necessary. This is also essential used social funds or micro-enterprise funds to to combat AIDS. It is important to reduce provide productive jobs for the poor. In the women's work burden as an incentive for Cameroon Food Security Project, local reducing the demand for children as child labor. communities will manage rural infrastructure This strategy paper is not the place to develop construction and maintenance that they them- population policy which transcends the needs of selves identify as needed, and will pay for half agriculture alone. The lesson is that the concept of such infrastructure. A fund set up to finance of what constitutes an agricultural input must this work provides the other half of the expand to include factors such as education, resources as a grant. Local communities also health and family planning facilities. furnish their labor. 86 Infrastructure and Town-Country Linkages; Developing Roads, Water Supply, Education and Health in Rural Areas In some areas, food supply is sufficient, sector to freely invest in food storage, and to incomes are adequate, yet food intake is profit from price fluctuations so that they have qualitatively inadequate. In these places, an incentive to maintain stocks. Investment in nutrition education, and in some cases, feeding infrastructure necessary to market and distribute programs, will be necessary. Often, young food, including food aid, is necessary. When a children and pregnant mothers in poor areas are crisis comes at the national level which local found to have serious dietary deficiencies, which private stocks cannot handle, it will be best can be resolved by nutrition education and in handled by importing more food. Storage of some cases by dietary supplements distributed money needed to buy food is cheaper than by health centers, for example. Rural health storing the food itself. In fact, storage of money dispensaries can operate nutrition extension returns interest. Imported food can be obtained systems, providing nutrition advice to patients at relatively short notice, if there are the funds coming for treatment, or to pregnant women to buy it. Storage then can be left in the hands coming for consultation. Dietary supplements of the private, cooperative and farming sectors. can also be provided from these centers, or sold The role of government is then confined to as parts of products in food as is done in many providing market information, allocating industrial countries. adequate foreign exchange and constructing and To combat the effects of temporary food maintaining major infrastructure. shortfalls, food storage facilities will be In countries which have a chronic food necessary at the farm, village, town and city deficit at the national level, due to civil strife, level. These hold the buffer stocks of food for example, the private sector will probably not needed between the onset of food shortfalls and be up to the task of maintaining the needed food the arrival of aid, imports, or food from security buffer. In these cases food aid is elsewhere. Generally farmers, traders, grain continuous, and government must have a more millers, and processing companies will invest in active role, in collaboration with donors, in food sufficient storage, if price policy makes such distribution." However, this needs to be seen as investment profitable and if financing to a temporary expedient, required because of civil construct storage facilities is available. This strife, or an extraordinary calamity such as an private and cooperative storage is generally not unusual drought. A plan for phasing out sufficient in situations of government price extraordinary government involvement in food controls because investors cannot make money storage and distribution should be established. from their storage in times of food shortfall. Since constraints to private and cooperative An Urban Strategy Which Promotes food storage have been common in Africa, Agricultural Development many African governments have responded by constructing their own grain storage facilities During the past three decades, the urban and managing often large buffer stocks. Once population of Sub-Saharan Africa has been this happens, any remaining incentive for the growing roughly twice as fast as its total private sector to undertake these investments is population. The rapid growth of cities is due not eliminated, because release of government grain only to the persistent high fertility rates still in time of drought will eliminate all private observed among urban women in Sub-Saharan profit from the situation. The best policy will Africa, but in large part to the very high rate of generally be to eliminate government grain rural-urban migration. This "land-flight' is storage facilities, by selling them to the private caused in part by the strong urban biases and cooperative sectors. Price, trade and credit inherent in most countries' economic and policy must be such as to permit the private investment policies."o This has created an issue 87 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Box 8.1. Mozambique Food Security Report Mozambique's food security problems are enormous-affecting over 60 percent of the population both rural and urban. The factors contributing to the enormity of the problem include continuing warfare and banditry which has led to widespread displacement of rural households and to the disruption of trading and communications networks, recurrent droughts and floods, failures in past economic policy, and the poor health conditions of the population in general. Since this study was completed, an important drought has occurred, and many of the report's projections have come true. Tse basic approach proposed in the report is to concentrate resources on increasing the productivity of small holders, create sustainable employment and income-generating opportunities for the most vulnerable households, improve access to basic services, and a carefully targeted safety net of direct and indirect income transfer to prevent serious malnutrition and starvation. The main ways in which this approach can be implemented are the following: * Food aid, by augmenting national food supplies, is an essential component of food security in Mozambique. Domestic production and marketing is so disrupted that production will not be able to satisfy needs for food for some time. Severe foreign exchange scarcity will prevent significant purchases of food from abroad. Food aid effectiveness can be improved by developing a single framework for food aid valuation, improving the financial position of the state trading corporations involved in food aid distribution, better coordination of food aid arrivals, and increased monetization of food aid. * The productivity of agriculture needs to be increased. Although greater agricultural production cannot resolve Mozambique food problem in the near term, in the medium- and long-term it can go some way in doing this. To succeed, there is a need to concentrate resources on the family rather than the state farm sector, to improve marketing structures and the movement of basic inputs, develop specific interventions in areas of high drought risk, and a need to focus resources geographically on those districts relatively free from the war-related disturbances. * Employment needs to be increased through: (i) assistance to labor-intensive small businesses, (ii) training programs targeted to unemployed members of the poorest households, and (iii) public employment programs focused on rehabilitating infrastructure. Source: "Achieving Food Security in Africa," Africa Region Food Security Unit, World Bank, February 7, 1992. regarding the appropriate urban policy from the urban populations results in political pressure to perspective of agricultural development. keep food prices low and to target public Where government policy discourages investments and services disproportionately to agricultural production and encourages the big cities. The result is the extraordinary agricultural imports to supply urban needs, there low level of public investment in rural roads, will be no positive impact of urbanization on water, health and education as discussed agriculture." This has tended to be the case in previously. countries where urban development policy has In much of Sub-Saharan Africa, rural out- focused heavily on the capital or on a few migration involves predominantly young men. dominant cities, inevitably more distant from Where policy has a heavy urban bias, this has rural hinterlands. Manifestations of such policy been particularly pronounced. As women, and expenditure bias are urban consumption children and the old stay behind, farm subsidies (often based on imported food), management is increasingly left to women who preoccupation with large urban infrastructure already have multiple and very heavy res- projects, and the focusing of social expenditures ponsibilities and work loads, and who face on a few cities. The political influence of vocal greater constraints in access to resources and 88 Infrastructure and Town-Country Linkages; Developing Roads, Water Supply, Education and Health in Rural Areas services than men. Many rural areas are today For areas that are approaching the limits of characterized by severely imbalanced gender sustainable agricultural land use under existing ratios in their adult population, with women tenurial, technological and climatic conditions, substantially outnumbering men. In addition, if migration to these secondary towns and cities the migrants abandon resilient and productive reduces the population pressure and provides an areas in pursuit of urban employment and in important safety valve. response to anti-agricultural policy biases, this Ensuring that urbanization has a positive has a negative impact on agricultural production impact on agricultural development and and rural development in the areas which they environmental resource conservation requires leave. economic policies that do not discriminate Some countries have pursued policies that against rural areas (i.e. no price and investment have led to the emergence of numerous and discrimination), and a better balance between geographically dispersed secondary cities and rural and urban areas in public investment in rural towns closely linked with their sur- social and physical infrastructure. The more rounding rural areas (e.g. Cameroon, C6te rapid agricultural growth that will occur is d'Ivoire, Kenya, Nigeria, Togo). They also likely to have a positive impact on the economy have a few very large cities (notably Douala, of the cities in Africa. A recent analysis of Abidjan, Nairobi, Lagos, Lome), but farm-nonfarm linkages in rural Sub-Saharan urbanization in these countries has also been Africa found that each US dollar of increased characterized by the development of many agricultural income generated an additional smaller cities and rural towns throughout much increase of US$0.5 in non-agricultural rural of the national territory. This has had important incomes." This was largely due to agricultural positive effects on agriculture. These towns and growth stimulating services and manufacturing. secondary cities have created non-agricultural This is less likely to occur when urban-biased employment opportunities for some of the rural policies cut off rural areas and agriculture from population. Industrial and service sector the cities. development in secondary towns and cities has The elements of sound urban development been closely linked to agriculture and to the policy include relatively more public expendi- needs of rural populations. Cash remittances to ture in secondary towns and cities and less in home villages are an important source of the largest cities than has generally been the financing of both consumption and investment case to date, and spatially well-distributed expenditures in rural areas. Urban growth infrastructure investment throughout the country creates expanding markets for farm products (not merely in the largest cities). It also requires and tends to lead to the increased supply and market-based petroleum pricing to promote the availability of farm inputs and services. This development of efficient transport fuel distribu- can make agriculture more profitable-provided tion systems throughout each country. It will there are adequate transport links and marketing include the promotion-through industrial exten- arrangements, which are based in the first sion as well as fiscal and credit policies-of instance in secondary towns and cities. Where small and medium industry. And it will include networks of rural towns and secondary cities greater community control over urban re- exist, these links are far more direct, immediate sources. Given adequate financial resources and and efficient. Spread-out rural towns and the requisite technical and administrative secondary cities tend to be associated with far assistance, local and community governments greater penetration of rural areas with adequate are far more likely than central governments to transport links and marketing arrangements than create and maintain appropriately-scaled and when urbanization has focused on mega-cities. sited urban infrastructure facilities. 89 A Strategy to Develop Agricuhure in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Pocus for the World Bank Notes 1. IFPRI, Annual Report, 1990. 2. Prabhu Pingali, Yves Bigot, and Hans Binswanger, Agricultural Mechanization and the Evolution of Farming Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa, World Bank, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1987. 3. John Riverson, Juan Gaviria, and Sydney Thriscutt, Rural Roads in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons from World Bank Experience, World Bank Technical Paper No. 141, World Bank, 1991. 4. J. Riverson and others, ibid. 5. Steve Carapetis, Hernan Levy, Terje Wolden, "Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Program. The Road Maintenance Initiative, Building Capacity for Policy Reform," Volume I: Report on the Policy Seminars, EDI Seminar Series, Economic Development Institute, World Bank, September 1991. 6. J. Riverson and other, Rural Roads in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons from World Bank Experience, op. cit. 7. The objective established in K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, The Population, Agriculture and Environment Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa, op. cit., and referred to in Chapter 2. 8. See "Achieving Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa", op. cit., p. 38 for an interesting presentation of the various elements which can be incorporated into a food security strategy. It is apparent that all actions which increase incomes, especially of the poor, from policy change to investment, will contribute to improved food security. 9. Simon Maxwell, "Food Security in Africa, Priorities for Reducing Hunger," Africa Recovery, United Nations, September 1992. 10. A recent study by M. Schiff and Alberto Valdds, The Plundering of Agriculture in Developing Countries, op. cit., shows that urban bias in developing countries, including Africa, has been extraordinarily high, leading to what they term the "plundering" of agriculture. 11. For a contrary view see Jean-Marie Cour, "Rural-Urban Linkages: Macroeconomic and Regional Implications," (draft discussion paper), Technical Department, Africa Region, World Bank, June 1990. 12. Steven Haggblade, Peter Hazell, and James Brown, "Farm - Non-Farm Linkages in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Vol. 17, No. 8, 1989, pp. 1173-1201. 90 9. Natural Resource Management The Problem manner. One factor which must be dealt with in these plans is that financial returns to con- Only in the last several years has it been servation are often less than economic returns, realized that the natural resource base in many and hence people and companies will undertake African countries is deteriorating sharply. As less conservation than is economically optimal. indicated previously, there is now widespread This situation is exacerbated when financial evidence of important soil erosion and degrada- returns are still lower due to various market tion, water pollution, siltation of irrigated areas, price distortions or market failures. Environ- pasture degradation, forest destruction and dis- mental returns to conservation, if measurable, appearance of wildlands. The importance of the might in some cases, be larger than economic "nexus" between rapid population growth, envi- returns. In these circumstances taxes on natural ronmental degradation and agricultural stagna- resource use (forest taxes, mining royalties), tion is now better understood. These natural and subsidies for conservation (free extension resource management problems reflect market advice to farmers, assistance with soil con- failures. Markets for natural resources have not servation works) are likely to be justified. This developed in a manner which induces individual can occur in forestland, farmland and pasture- decisions to be consistent with economically, land. Each of these fundamentally different land socially or environmentally desirable outcomes. use systems is dealt with in the following text. Future strategy must therefore put more empha- sis on natural resource management to counter Forests this failure, both as an independent objective, and as part of the agricultural development About 30 percent of Africa's land area is strategy. This will include land and water use under forests. Thirty-four percent of Africa's planning (land and water are the major natural forest lands are shrublands and 38 percent are resources), land tenure reform, better wildlands savanna woodlands used for fuelwood harvest- and forest management to combine sustainable ing, farming, or grazing. Only 28 percent is production of various products (not just wood) closed forest.' By contrast, in Latin America with conservation, better soil and water and Asia, two-thirds of forest area is closed management on farms by farmers, and siting of forest. Timber production was valued at $1260 infrastructure which takes environmental impact million in 1989 (FAO 1991). But Africa's wood and agricultural development into account. exports account for about 1 percent of the total Natural resource management requirements world export market and are declining (South- vary enormously by ecological zone, not only east Asia and Latin America have greatly between countries but within countries. Require- increased their wood exports). As discussed in ments in humid forest areas are quite different Chapter 2, forest area is declining at about 3.7 from requirements in highly populated and fer- million hectares per annum, and the rate of tile farming areas, pastureland, or semi-arid and decline is accelerating. arid lands. Land-use plans, water plans, tropical The most important causes for deforestation forestry action plans, and national environmental are agricultural encroachment, infrastructure action plans are all planning tools for analyzing development in delicate areas, timber and and dealing with management issues at the fuelwood harvesting. Crop land is expanding at national and regional level in an integrated a rate of I million hectares per annum. Growing 91 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank and migrating human populations as well as is ecologically sustainable in most of West international demand for timber drive this Africa,' and in parts of Central and eastern process. Donors, including the Bank, have Africa. With weak supervision by government sometimes financed agricultural projects which forestry services, the result is widespread facilitate the substitution of crop land for forests abusive logging and felling. and pasture. For forests which remain, improved manage- Studies have found that deforestation ment for multiple uses will be vital. These uses increases with greater population pressure if include tourism, timber, non-timber products, policies are favorable to agriculture, but mining, and preservation. It is unrealistic to decreases with greater use of modem farm expect that all forests can be conserved as they inputs.' Government forestry and park services are now. If people and governments feel that have not been able to manage forests efficiently there is little benefit from forests, those forests almost anywhere in Africa due to inadequate will be converted into agricultural land. funding, inadequately trained staff, and a policy In order to deal with these problems, there is environment that often encourages destructive no alternative to planning, orchestrated by practices. Open access land tenure in forest governments. These plans can be established areas has, for example, permitted migrants easy within "Tropical Forestry Actions Plans" entry into forests. This has been caused in part (TFAPs), "National Environmental Action by government land nationalization which Plans" (NEAPs) or simply forestry master displaced traditional forest people. Traditional plans. Each will involve some form of land use forest people had some incentive to maintain and natural resource planning. Land-use plans in forests when customary land rights conferred to forests should identify conservation areas, them exclusive user rights in the forests. parks, areas allocated to sustainable logging, Governments have not been able to substitute mining areas, farming areas, and areas for traditional people's forest management with infrastructure development. Farmers have effective government control of the forest. As a encroached into most forest areas in Africa. result, the forests are often exploited by loggers, The cost of resettling them is generally poachers, and farmers who do not own or have prohibitive. Consequently, areas which are exclusive rights to the forests, and hence have largely converted to farm land should be simply little incentive to preserve them. Another result given up to farming and farmers allocated is that open access forests allow free harvesting secure user rights. Areas allocated to logging of woodfuel. The resulting price of woodfuel is should be carefully managed in collaboration lower than the environmental cost of its with logging companies which contract in con- gathering. Woodfuel prices are often so low that cession agreements to log in a sustainable alternative sources of household energy cannot manner. Areas allocated to protection should be compete unless subsidized. Woodfuel is not managed by governments in partnership with replanted in this situation, until transport costs local populations. Local populations will to consuming centers exceed replanting costs cooperate if given user rights in protected areas around those centers. This has been a major and are involved in management decisions.' problem in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, but is An objection to this prescription is that land- common almost everywhere in Africa. use planning and regional planning have not Another set of government policies which worked well in most of Africa. The reasons for encourages excessive forest exploitation includes this included the excessive complexity of such low stumpage fees on logging, low export taxes plans and lack of government capacity to pre- for logs, and generous logging concession pare and implement the plans. Frequently, agreements setting few responsibilities for people living in the areas to which the plan loggers. This has stimulated more logging than applies have no incentives to cooperate. Land 92 Natural Resource Management tenure issues, identification of appropriate primary humid forests. Logging should certainly agricultural technology in forest areas, partici- be stopped in ecologically delicate and in pation by local people and by the private sector, environmentally important areas. There clearly and establishment of adequate incentives for log- should be no logging where it is not possible to gers, farmers, hunters and gatherers and live- log on an ecologically sustainable basis. In stock owners to cooperate were completely secondary tropical moist and dry forests (i.e. neglected in past development projects located those consisting of regrowth where primary in forest areas. What was nearly universally forests have been logged or otherwise signifi- applied was an engineering solution, imple- cantly disturbed before), on industrial planta- mented by government administrative services tions and on tree farms, logging in accordance or donor project management which sought to with sustainable management practices should be manage forest areas independently of people and permitted, and many of these areas should in companies living or operating in them. A new many cases be specifically designated and approach is necessary both for planning and managed as permanent sources of timber, pulp- management which simplifies execution, and wood and woodfuels. Logging companies unable which makes greater use of prices, taxes and to log in a sustainable manner should not be subsidies to induce behavior consistent with the given concessions and permits, even in secon- plans. If government's role is confined primarily dary forest areas. Logging in dry forests is to planning, legislation and supervision, it generally for local wood industry and fuelwood, becomes more manageable. And if governments and would continue on private land, or public are assisted in these more limited functions land leased for this purpose. through TFAP or EAP preparation, the strategy Loggers will have to improve their becomes realistic. performance and show themselves to be The content of the forest component of such responsible in their logging activities. In order plans will vary from country to country. to induce this behavior, forest management Generally, the most important actions to deal concession agreements rather than logging with degradation of forest resources are to: concessions, providing for logging company (a) reduce population growth; and (b) intensify responsibilities as well as rights will be agricultural production at a rate which exceeds necessary. These concessions should be leased population growth, in order to encourage seden- to companies on the basis of technical, tary agriculture and livestock raising, and to biological, and ecological criteria. Payment discourage migration into the forests. Although rather than evasion of taxes and annual these aspects of forest management are outside concession fees should be more the norm. the immediate purview of forestry programs, Management of secondary growth forests and they are not less important to the solution. industrial plantations would then become more Rapidly growing numbers of people, surviving important in the share of the business of logging in land-extensive agricultural systems, will companies than the mining of primary tropical attack the forests. This underscores again the moist and drier forests. Where governments and complex mutual dependency of agricultural and local people choose to continue to allow logging non-agricultural activities in Africa. in primary forests, the management of The degree to which the sustainable secondary growth should still be encouraged by management of primary tropical moist forests is levying much lower taxes on trees taken from possible within logging concessions is highly replanting schemes and from industrial contentious.' Although the present evidence plantations than on trees harvested from primary may be insufficient to make a definitive and forests. Forest management concessions should categorical statement, there is increasing support be long term to encourage companies to among experts for prohibiting logging in intact participate. If international prices for tropical 93 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank wood increase as currently projected (Chapter Nature (IUCN) has identified priority areas 4), the profitability of forest plantations will which should be protected because of their increase, making such an approach even more especially valuable environmental character- feasible. istics. Areas which should be protected are Taxes on logging in those primary tropical located throughout Africa, in forests and moist and dry forests where logging is still per- mountain areas, as well as where wildlife mitted should be increased, through area-based remains prolific. Local populations need to taxes and fees levied on concessions. Forest participate in management and planning even in management concessions should be auctioned to these areas, but within a more restrictive the highest bidder. These measures would serve framework, aimed at conservation. In many to return more of the benefit to the community cases, continued hunting and gathering by and, in effect, impose a charge on the com- traditional forest users is not inconsistent with panies for the public resource (the forest) conservation, even in parks. Long-term user exploited. Taxes and stumpage fees should be rights can be granted to local populations high enough to reflect the economic and social bestowing responsibilities for conservation as value of the forest, including the environmental well. services it provides, and the costs of rehabilita- Governments will need to develop the tion if the public sector or the local community institutional and human capacity required to undertakes that rehabilitation.' manage protected areas and to monitor logging, A key to success in better forest management as well as to monitor the use of agricultural and will be local people's participation. Local people pasture (and fisheries) resources made available must participate in both the planning and execu- in forests for exploitation. This is important to tion of land use plans. This is best done through ensure that protected areas are in fact protected their ownership of land and of resources on that and that the areas made available for land, or in some cases where government exploitation are used in a productive and ownership is to continue, through legally bind- sustainable manner. An example of management ing long-term user rights. Ownership or secure for sustainability is increasing the availability of long-term user rights create an incentive to wood products to match population conserve. Loss of ownership or user rights growth-ensuring, for example, that creates an incentive to exploit without investing. reforestation exceeds cutting. This could be Government should assist local people through done by inducing local populations to set aside government forest and extension services to suffcient land for wood production. Incentives manage these forests properly. Management include price, tax and other fiscal incentives plans allowing some industrial logging and which make tree planting, harvesting and artisanal logging on a sustainable basis, setting marketing profitable. This requires planning and the level of rent, specifying infrastructure management capacity in government even development, allocating land for agriculture, though local populations actually manage the could be prepared with government, donor, and resource. NGO assistance. Local populations could exploit Government forest services can also help fuelwood, hunting and gathering, and agricul- land owners reforest degraded forests, through tural activities, and share with government in the provision of seedlings, training, and royalties from use by "outsiders." extension services providing technical know- Governments will maintain certain areas as how. But local people must do the planting and government property: parks and certain forest harvesting. Traditional forest peoples and other lands owned by governments for several decades inhabitants of forests should generally not be (such as the gazetted forests in West Africa). resettled out of forests. Rather, they should be The International Union for the Conservation of made partners in forest management through 94 Natural Resource Management appropriate incentives. NGOs should be given a rural people for several decades. Rural needs role in assisting local people to participate in will have to increasingly be met by trees planted forest management. Governments should also on farms and in rural areas. Trees and agro- provide environmental education to local people forestry should be a much greater focus of through the school system and the public media. agricultural research and extension in order to Governments will have to develop capacity to deal with increasing needs and decreasing undertake environmental assessments of availability of fuelwood. Urban supplies will development projects in order to avoid exces- have to be met from: sively negative environmental impact in forest * farmer and industrial wood plantations; areas. Strengthened public forestry research will * conservation: fuel-efficient stoves, more be necessary, especially in silvicultural efficient wood harvesting; and practices, the sustainability of various logging * progressive substitution of other fuels systems, and the ecological aspects of forest (kerosene, electricity, LPG). eco-systems. Better forestry schools will be This will require incentives, since it is people necessary to prepare people for the private and rather than governments who must act. public forestry sectors. Greater focus is needed Incentives for planting and conserving fuel- on preparing empowered groups of forest users wood can be created by eliminating open access for their expanded role. land and tree tenure, providing security of ownership or at least long-term user rights to Fuelwood traditional or private owners. People will have an incentive to replant fuelwood if they own the Fuelwood is a special problem in both forest land and the trees on the land. The same land and non-forest areas, and deserves special tenure prescriptions apply in the fuelwood case consideration.Fuelwood is expected to continue as for forests generally (discussed more fully in to provide the dominate form of energy for the following paragraphs). Box 9.1. A New Forest Policy in CMte d'Ivoire The Government of C6te d'Ivoire has initiated an effort to implement many of the recommendations set out here. The objectives of the government's Forestry Program are to arrest destruction of tropical forests and restore forest cover on about 20 percent of the country. About 12 million hectares of tropical forests land have been lost since the turn of the century. Wildlife and bio-diversity would be conserved under the program in national parks covering 1.9 million hectares, of which 600,000 hectares are under tropical forests. Sustainable production of wood would be undertaken through better management of 1.5 million hectares of forest reserved for logging (all of which are secondary forests, previously logged), maintenance and expansion of hardwood plantations, and extension advice to farmers regarding tree planting and agro-forestry. This process began with detailed land use plans for existing "gazetted" forest areas in which land is designated for either protection, logging, farming and/or other uses. Gazetted forests belong to the government. Park areas have already been delimited and are to be fully protected and managed. In those parts of the gazetted forests which have been previously logged over and are to remain production forests, logging companies are receiving long-term concessions in accordance with detailed forest resource management plans. These companies would log under government supervision. Loggers judged unable or unwilling to participate are not permitted to log. To extract the greatest amount of forestry value for the government, taxes on logs have been increased, and concessions are being auctioned to the highest qualified bidders. This is helping to eliminate the least efficient loggers. In effect, forests will no longer be treated as a virtually free good, but as an expensive and valuable resource to the community, requiring high payment by logging companies for exploitation. The remaining intact primary forests are in parks, and will not be logged at all. (continued) 95 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Box 9.1. (continued) Incentives are being provided for farmers to move out of those parts of parks and logging reserves which are environmentally delicate or which would be managed for logging. Incentives for farmers to move will include land tides and agricultural inputs made available outside the forests. No services would be provided to farmers remaining in the forests. The agricultural extension service will provide technical advice to resettle farmers. Land tenure reform to eliminate open access to land is being undertaken in a separate project. Traditional forest dwellers would be left in the forest as would farmers living on land which is already heavily encroached upon and on which forests have largely disappeared. Government institutions in the forest sector will be strengthened to focus more on conservation and resource management, rather than on servicing the logging industry. This new forestry policy fits into a broader national strategy for natural resource conservation which includes accelerating agricultural intensification and improving land tenure security. The major issue is the consultation process between farmers, traditional forest dwellers and Government. A consultation process has been created in the form of local level forest-farmer commissions which will decide on resettlement questions as well as on other areas of controversy between Government, farmers who have settled in forests and traditional forest dwellers. A second issue is land ownership. Government would continue owning the land in the gazetted forest, but would pay part of the royalties to local populations to induce their support. Natural Resource Management in grazing lands and agriculture. Planning is useful Farming Areas because of the important trade-offs between these various uses. Farmers will plan the use of The distinction is not always clear-cut their own land as a function of their self- between forest areas and farming areas since interest. Providing land tenure security to much farming is undertaken in forest regions. traditional land users is as important in There are large areas in Africa where forests agricultural areas as it is in forest areas, to have been nearly totally replaced by farms. In encourage them to invest in and conserve the these farming areas, the role of government in land (discussed subsequently). New soil natural resource management will be land use conservation techniques can be extended more and water resource planning, research, and widely to farmers in these areas, since farmers extension. The content of natural resource will be the major actors in natural resource management plans will focus on improving management. Agricultural research and farming and livestock husbandry practices, tree extension systems are the major government planting on farms, watershed management, tools for encouraging farmers and private irrigation and drainage, domestic water supply industry to manage the natural resources found use, and infrastructure location. Generally, land in farming areas. Actual conservation, therefore, in these predominately farmed areas still must will be almost entirely in the hands of farmers be allocated for infrastructure, parks, forest, and livestock owners. 96 Natural Resource Management Box 9.2. Natural Resource Management in a Farming Area - Machakos, Kenya Detailed study of population, agriculture, and environmental linkages in Machakos District, Kenya, has been undertaken periodically since 1930. In the 1930s, the British colonial administration had observed considerable soil erosion and pasture degradation due in part to the expanding numbers of farmers and livestock on Machakos' fragile ecology. The fragility was due to the hilly nature of much of Machakos and low rainfall, especially in the lower altitudes. Early photos taken in the 1930s show considerable gully erosion, few trees. Statistics show low crop yields. By 1990, two studies show that despite a five fold increase in population, there were more trees, less soil erosion, higher agricultural output per person and per hectare (at constant prices). Parmers had invested in significant terracing, tree planting, and agriculture intensification. But behind this farmers' investment lie a number of factors of critical importance for replication of this experience elsewhere. Kenya's agricultural policy environment has been closest to that suggested as appropriate in this strategy paper. Farmer incentives to invest in agricultural intensification were high. Machakos farmers invested in high-value coffee, horticulture crops and livestock. Integrated livestock cropping systems were introduced. This was facilitated by excellent infrastructure investment by government, and intensive research and extension efforts by government dating from the 1940s. This included early introduction of soil conservation technology, good public investment in education and health services, and a secure land tenure regime. Many of the elements of successful agricultural intensification proposed in this strategy paper were available in Machakos District, and the result was rapid agricultural growth, surpassing rapid population growth and good natural resource conservation. Source: Mary Tiffen, Productivity and Environmental Conservation Under Rapid Population Growth: A Case Study of Machakos District," ODI, 1992. Pastureland and Dryland Areas Reviews of natural resource problems in the Sahel suggest several requirements of sustain- If private ownership existed for pastureland, able management, which should be incorporated and a land market were operative, the market into land use plans. These include: place could allocate pastureland to its most * the research and extension of appropriate efficient use. Externalities imposing social or crop and livestock technologies which are both environmental costs and benefits of conserving soil-conserving and profitable for farmers and or using pastureland could be reflected in taxes herdsman. This is identical to the principal and subsidies. Nowhere in Africa is such private action required in farming areas; property operative in pastoral areas. In this * land tenure reform to eliminate open access situation, land-use planning will be important. (discussed subsequently); These plans should accommodate the interests of * reduction of population growth through the predominate pastoralists, farmers who are out-migration; moving into pasture areas to farm, fuelwood * promotion of non-agricultural rural gatherers, and bio-diversity preservation. There industries to reduce the pressure on land; and are forests and wildlands in pastoral areas. * participation in planning, and management Resolving land disputes is an important aspect of implementation, by local communities. of the solution to these problems, including that It has been suggested in some literature that of increasing fuelwood supply in drier areas. the preceding requirements mean a return to The management of pastureland by local holistic and integrated planning and execution peoples, grouped into associations, is the most for the dryland areas. This is because soil and effective management mechanism. But these water conservation will not largely be a question associations must be provided ownership of of improving farmer practice as it is in farming pasture land, or be assured long-term user areas. Pasture areas are much more susceptible rights, if they are to be interested in to open access and collective use, requiring conservation and in sustainable management. community-wide solutions. This would mean a 97 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank return to the concept of integrated regional possible, but this will not be generally feasible development based on land-use plans that allo- on dry lands due to the patchy availability of cate land for pasture, cropping, reserves and water and the need for seasonal livestock parks, fuelwood production, forests and other movement. But exclusion of others-i.e., uses. Agricultural and livestock technology elimination of open-access conditions is would be developed to suit each particular agro- essential. At the same time, local communities climatic situation. The technologies would put a and individuals need to be taught to plan and greater premium on soil conservation measures manage resource use in pasture areas.' than is the case in the better watered and more Communities will require funding to do this. fertile farming areas.' An interesting example One funding mechanism is the micro-project is the Yatenga Project in Burkina Faso described funds, which some donors, the EEC in in Box 9.3. particular, have begun to establish. Technical Whether land-use plans are used or not, local assistance will have to be provided to initiative needs to be mobilized to manage communities to assist them in planning and pastureland and dry areas. Where traditional management. This technical assistance should authority still exists, group land titles or secure come through extension agents, knowledgeable long-term user rights should be provided. It is about conservation techniques. This is happen- through the ownership of land and of natural ing in Burkina Faso (see Box 9.3). The Burkina resources, or at least the assurance of secure Faso example, although pertaining to a dry area, long-term use, that local participation can be is also pertinent to farming areas. The example mobilized in these areas, as in the case of suggests a common element of natural resource farmland and forests. In better-watered lands, management in each area: good extension of individual ownership of ranches will be improved technology. Box 9.3. Soil Conservation and Water Harvesting in Burkina Faso An agricultural research and extension project ("Projet Agro-Forester (PAP)") in the Yatenga region of Burkina Faso, was launched in 1979 aimed at reducing soil erosion and water runoff. It used a simple, inexpensive, labor- intensive technique of earthen basins to catch rainwater for trees. Rock bunds, built to slow the runoff of rainfall from terraces, have proved effective in reducing erosion and retaining moisture in the soil. The Yatenga region, located in the Sahelian area that borders the southern edge of the Sahara desert, is dry, with annual rainfall of 350-650 millimeters, and is drought prone. Traditional agricultural techniques cause considerable soil erosion and depend on a long fallow period to restore the soil's productivity. Yet strong population pressure forced farmers to shorten and eventually eliminate the fallow periods, and the traditional methods of stemming soil erosion proved insufficient. Past efforts by government and international organizations to improve the situation had largely met with failure. To hak further environmental degradation, the PAP, funded and managed by Oxfam, persuaded eight village cooperatives to volunteer land for the experiment. Sceptical at first, participants became more interested when large amounts of water built up in the microcatchments. Several decided to plant upland rice in the basins, and sorghum was introduced. These crops did well and soon farmers shifted their attention from the group plots to their own land. When PAP staff found that the farmers were more interested in planting crops than trees, they shifted their focus. PAP also accommodated farmers' preference for a less labor-intensive construction of the rectangular microcatchments, and began to use a method similar to a traditional technique that had been abandoned. For more effective water collection, the PAP developed an inexpensive device: the water-tube level, which accurately identified the contour lines on the gentle slopes common in the Yatenga. The technique is now used by thousands of farmers. (continued) 98 Natural Resource Management Box 9.3. (continued) The PAF project was expanded upon by the national extension service, in an example of NOO innovation replicated more widely by government. Today, soil conservation measures cover more than 60,000 hectares, extending to the northern region through the work of the national extension service. Crop yields have improved because the bunds hold rainwater on the fields, which increases the absorption of water into the land and thus by the crops. Fertilizer (usually manure and organic material) applied to the fields is less likely to be washed away, making the soil directly behind the bunds more fertile. As much as 200 millimeters of soil had accumulated behind some of the barriers after their first year of use. First-year crop yield increases can be dramatic, 15-30 percent, but the system needs to be managed well for yields to be sustained, with restitution of organic matter and fertilization. The soil conservation interventions were successful because: * The technology was simple. Yatenga farmers were familiar with the general principles of soil and water conservation, so they could understand the technology, and do the basic work and maintenance themselves; * The extension services involved are simple. A few extension workers can help many farmers. Three important factors contributed to its success: good communication, flexibility, and respect for participating farmers' opinions and preferences; and * The benefits are obvious and the costs minimal. Farmers are not required to move, to grow crops they are unfamiliar with, to borrow money to purchase a new technology, or to do anything very different from what they have been doing. For a minimal investment of time and effort, they can increase output and reduce risk. Source: Agriculture Division, Sahel Department, Africa Region, World Bank, February 1992. Infrastructure and Natural production and to limit further destruction of Resource Management forest and pasture areas. Infrastructure development, and especially Social and physical infrastructure deve- road construction, should therefore be focused lopment is a major determinant of the way where the potential for agricultural intensifica- people use land as well as of the spatial tion is highest and/or where settlement is to be allocation of people on land. The development encouraged. It should be avoided in forest areas of infrastructure tends to attract and retain which are to be conserved and in other environ- people. The many instances of colonists mentally fragile areas where an influx of people invading forests via abandoned logging roads will lead to environmental degradation and des- provide a powerful illustration. Conversely, the truction. Concentrating infrastructure develop- absence of infrastructure in areas that are ment and thereby attracting and retaining people environmentally delicate will tend to induce in areas of high production potential, and keep- people to stay out of those areas. Careful loca- ing them out of environmentally fragile areas, tional targeting of physical and social infra- also allows considerable efficiencies in invest- structure development can guide spontaneous ments and service provision. For this reason, population movement into environmentally plans for social and physical infrastructure resilient areas with agricultural potential, and development should be part of land-use plans. into secondary towns and cities, and help keep migrants out of areas that should not be opened Land Tenure up to farming. Sound infrastructure policy is therefore a powerful instrument in the two- Improving land tenure security for local pronged strategy to intensify agricultural peoples is a common element of natural 99 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank resource management in all areas. Generally, An example of the situation of breakdown of where traditional tenure arrangements can con- traditional tenure systems is in CMte d'Ivoire's tinue to work, traditional communities should be gazetted forests which consist of forests expro- provided with community tenure security. Land priated by the French colonial government for within the community can continue to be allo- use as production (logging) forests. In this, and cated according to customary practice. Tradi- in similar cases, a partnership between govern- tional tenure arrangements need protection ment, local people and logging companies will under the law. This can be assisted by mecha- be necessary to properly manage these forests. nisms to provide group land titles to traditional Governments cannot succeed in managing there communities. Burkina Faso is proceeding in this forests without such cooperation: they do not fashion. Where traditional mechanisms have have the capacity. The ongoing CMte d'Ivoire completely broken down, individual land titling Forestry Sector Project is endeavoring to estab- may be necessary. Existing plantation and large lish a workable partnership which will preserve farms are most likely to need individual titles. these forests in perpetuity as productive forests, This should be provided, however, only on with some taken out of production for protection demand.' In some cases, because traditional and others for farming. The provision of secure tenure relationships have been replaced by land rights to people living around the forests, government ownership, it may be necessary to and secure user rights within the forests will be maintain this ownership, and provide long-term one part of this partnership (see Box 9.1). legally binding user rights to local communities. Each of these forms of land ownership and user Information Needs right requires that government respect and en- force its rules. Otherwise, the title or the user Lack of operationally meaningful and reliable right is useless. Improving the efficiency of environmental data is a major problem. Urgent judicial systems will be important in this regard. needs include assessment of forest cover, soil These actions to strengthen land tenure erosion and soil capability, soil degradation security will require government mechanisms to risks and the distribution of human and livestock assess and provide legal protection to traditional populations. This is an area in which donors can and to modern land owners. Since women heads provide support and expertise, and governments of households are increasingly frequent in rural need to act. It is important to develop national areas, efforts must be made to assure their capacity to gather and analyze information in- security of tenure. In many forest areas, tradi- country. Geographical Information Systems tional tenure mechanisms are still potentially (GISs) are designed to serve this purpose. GISs operative, and governments can divest control of make use of aerial photography, remote sensing forest land and the trees on them to local com- and actual ground inspections and data collec- munities, through allocation of group titles or tion. GISs will be useful to monitor the progress secure user rights. This must be done with care, of natural resource degradation and destruction, however, since many of these communities have to assess land capability for various uses and, broken down under the pressure of migration, thus, to provide the basis for sound land-use logging, and government land ownership. planning, and environmental assessments of Where forest communities have broken down, development projects. It would help, for ex- the people occupying the forests may simply ample, to guide decisions regarding infrastruc- complete the destruction if given the oppor- ture development."o tunity. In these cases, continued government In many cases, governments can launch these ownership and control may be necessary, but processes through the preparation of national combined with carefully specified user rights, environmental action plans. These can set the and user responsibilities. broad environmental policies, propose areas for 100 Natural Resource Management land-use planning as well as the parameters of Global Environmental Facility (GEF). These such planning, prepare fiscal policy changes, funds would be made available to countries as prepare for land tenure reform, prepare for compensation for reducing activities that are popular participation, and donor assistance, remunerative but significantly compromise bio- among other measures. This process has been diversity (such as logging), contribute to carbon launched by numerous African Governments, dioxide emissions (such as forest burning), or under a coordinating body called the Club of produce CFCs. Setting aside of tropical forest Dublin." land or other wildlands as reserves and parks is a good candidate for funding under this Facility Financing (Congo, for example, will receive GEF funding for such a purpose). The benefits of improved conservation of There is as yet little experience with natural some natural resources such as tropical forests resource management projects, or with initia- will accrue to the entire world, while the costs tives to improve land tenure security, as they will have to be borne almost entirely by the have only now started. A great many more countries in which the resources are located. natural resource management, environmental This situation has stimulated efforts to reim- protection, land tenure and forestry projects are burse the host countries for losses incurred programmed by the donors in the future. On- when forests, wildlands or savanna are taken of going projects incorporating some of these production and put into reserves. The first such elements include the Madagascar Environmental efforts were "debt for nature' swaps. Although Action Plan, C6te d'Ivoire Forestry and Guinea not many swaps have been organized in Sub- Natural Resource Management Projects. Future Saharan Africa, there is no doubt that there is projects incorporating many of these elements considerable potential for them in many parts of include Ghana Environment, Gabon Forestry the continent. The principle is that governments and Environment, Zimbabwe Wildlife, Uganda agree to set aside as a protected reserve large Environmental Action Plan, Cameroon Ecologi- tracts of forest or wildlife area, usually admi- cal Protection and Mali Natural Resources nistered with the help of an NGO, in return for Management. A critical issue in all of them is the purchase of some amount of the country's the large financial cost to the governments, discounted debt by the NGO, or organized by which they can ill afford, as the economic the NGO. dividends will be realized only in the long term. A recently launched initiative is now This situation makes donor financing of such underway to provide about US$1 billion for a projects particularly justifiable. Notes 1. "World Bank Strategy for the Forest Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa" (draft), Africa Agriculture Division, Technical Department, World Bank, October 7, 1992. 2. K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, The Population, Agriculture and Environment Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa, op. cit. 3. Mikael Grut and Nicolas Egli, Forest Pricing and Concession Policies, World Bank, Technical Paper No. 143, September 1991. 101 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank 4. These are the major thrusts of the recommendations contained in the "World Bank Strategy for the Forest Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa," (draft), op. cit. 5. There are several type of forests which exist in Africa. For simplicity, the main four are divided into primary moist and primary dry tropical forests, and secondary (regrowth after cutting) moist and dry tropical forests. Trees exist throughout Africa, not just in the humid and sub-humid central and west Africa. The Sudano-Sahelian Region largely has acacia and commphora. Some evergreen forests as well as open woodland are found in sub-humid mountainous East Africa. Southern Africa contains large areas of savanna woodlands. 6. Mikael Grut and Nicolas Egli, Forest Pricing and Concession Policies, op. cit. 7. Walter Lusigi and Bengt Nekby, "Dryland Management in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Search for Sustainable Development Options," Environmental Division, AFTEN Working Paper No. 2, Africa Region, World Bank, November 1991. This approach is also suggested in K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, The Population, Agriculture and Environment Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa, op. cit. 8. See "Resource Management and Pastoral Institution Building in the West Africa Sahel," (draft), Africa Technical Department, World Bank, September, 1992. 9. K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, The Population, Agriculture and Environment Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa, op. cit. 10. Taken from K. Cleaver and G. Schreiber, The Population, Agriculture and Environment Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa, op. cit. 11. See Frangois Falloux and Lee Talbot, National Environment Action Plans, Progress and Next Steps, NEAP Series, Environment Division, Africa Region, 1991. 102 10. Common Strategic Themes and Expected Impact New Themes African capacity to manage by bringing in a broader spectrum of people. By using African The present strategy paper, although including consultants rather than being excessively reliant elements of the strategy announced by many on foreign consultants, donors mobilize existing donors in the 1980s, proposes some new African capacity. Freeing domestic agricultural themes, and strengthened priorities for others. trade liberates the capacity of potential private The major shifts in strategy are indicated in Box traders. With a smaller, planning and 10.1. contracting role for government, a much smaller There are four themes important in the number of more highly qualified and better paid pursuit of each of the priorities in Box 10.1 people can be retained in government services. which should be emphasized by governments There people should be the focus of and donors in every project and program they considerable training effort. The present African support. Capacity Building Initiative (ACBI) supported by a consortium of donors will help. More Developing African Capacity to effective governments, with greater capacity to Manage Agriculture implement, would be the result of these various efforts. Success in each of the five priority areas Improved agricultural education will be an described in Chapters 5-9 requires the building important means to build African capacity to of African capacity to manage agriculture, at the manage agriculture. Agricultural education level of the farm, the enterprise, the coopera- needs to begin in primary school. Many African tive, and in government. The tendency of countries focus on agricultural education in donors, NGOs and some governments has been technical schools. Universities in many African to address capacity constraints with expatriate countries offer agricultural degrees. Donor- technical assistance. This tendency is so financed projects to assist the development of pronounced that a significant proportion of aid agricultural education have frequently provided to agriculture now comes in the form of techni- for buildings, equipment, foreign teachers, and cal assistance. A major shift is required in the the training of local teachers. While this has in direction of building African capacity to manage many cases been highly beneficial, there has not through expanded training, support to educa- been sufficient attention to the quality and tional institutions in Africa, and support to content of the agricultural education provided. learning by doing. All donor and NGO projects Frequently, the subject matter taught is only should include such capacity-building efforts partly relevant to local country agro-climatic as a centerpiece. conditions, crops, and the technological level of Related to capacity-building is the idea of the farm population. Graduates are ill-prepared, liberating and using existing African capacity, in many cases, for coping with the agricultural by removing constraints to private sector and situations of the country involved. High-level local community participation in economic training in foreign universities has the same management. Efforts to mobilize private sector "relevance" problem. The emphasis in the 1990s participation in various activities expands has to be on improving the quality and 103 A Strategy to Develop Agricukure in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Box 10.1. Changing Themes for African Agricultural Development 1970s-1980s 1990s and Beyond - Improve government management capacity - Pluralism: bring in private, cooperative, NGO, foreign and domestic actors - and build Government capacity in a limited number of areas only - Technical assistance - a major management - Training, education, learning by doing tool - Policy improvement, tax, price, subsidy, - same; plus expanded agenda to land exchange rate, marketing tenure, farmer empowerment, natural resource management, women's issues, public expenditure allocation - Government provision of credit to - financial market development - assisted agriculture to serve agriculture, including through private and cooperative banks - Create and strengthen parastatals - strengthen private and cooperative enterprises, privatize parastatals - Natural resource exploitation (logging, - natural resource management - for fisheries, plantation) conservation and sustainable use - Engineering solutions/supply-driven - people participation and incentives - respond to demand - Large-scale infrastructure projects, - large- and small-scale infrastructure government implementation projects, with people's participation and private sector contractors - National agricultural services - national services and multi-country cooperation - Trade and policy reform from national - national and regional (multi-country) perspective reform perspectives - Each donor and NGO follows own - donor and NGO collaboration perspectives - Agriculture focus on policy and technology - expand agriculture focus to include social services, infrastructure, natural resource management, food security 104 Common Strtegic Themes and Expected Impact relevance of the agricultural curriculum. Donor Collaboration Linking education to agricultural research, extension policy and input supply further To implement an ambitious strategy of the Increases this relevance. The donor-supported type proposed requires not only government ACBI which supports African "excellence" commitment, but donor collaboration. The centers of education, should provide support to propensity of each donor to go its own way, higher agricultural education. There is room to regardless of the total picture of other donor put internationally respected scientists into involvement in a country, or of government African agricultural universities to assist in plans, is widespread, and must be altered. One curriculum development.' way of achieving this is for governments to develop sound strategies and action plans in Broadening the View of Agriculture each area discussed here, with external assistance where appropriate to which all donors It is necessary to broaden our view of the can adhere. In this way, planning and strategy elements necessary for agricultural development will help donors to collaborate. Meetings and to take place. Narrow views of agricultural conferences to encourage donor collaboration strategy as essentially technology improvement are not effective, unless there is something and good macro-economic policy are convincing on which to collaborate. inadequate. Social sector development, environmental concerns, physical infrastructure Pluralism and a Reduced But Critical Role development, as well as political development for Government and creation of the rule of law are all vital to the development of agriculture. And agricultural Behind every strategic action presented here development will contribute to progress in each lies the idea of mobilizing the participation of of these areas, by creating the wealth, broadly concerned people, the private sector, and distributed in the population, necessary to NGOs. These various participants should be maintain social progress, to finance preservation both foreign and local. Excessive dominance by of the environment, and to permit people to government in all aspects of agricultural divert more energy from survival to political development must end. Land tenure reform; participation. reform of regulations inhibiting free association This broadened view of the elements needed of farmers, pastoralists, water users, credit for agricultural development does not require societies; reform of restrictive marketing, that agricultural projects incorporate these pricing and interest rate regulations; allocation elements. Rather, economic policy reform of user rights to local people living in forests; programs should be expanded to incorporate reform of cooperative legislation, are all ways more of the structural changes needed to of encouraging popular and private sector stimulate agriculture. Health and education participation in every aspect of the strategy. programs should focus more on rural areas. Twinning and contracting arrangements with Road transport plans should allocate relatively external sources of expertise expand more to rural roads and to roads connecting participation in agricultural development beyond agricultural areas to cities. Water development the borders of each country. Multi-country programs should include rural areas. Food (regional) cooperation and integration does the security strategies should include the nutritional same thing. Such broadened participation in needs of farmers. each country's agricultural development will 105 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank strengthen commitment to implementing Short-Term Compared with Long-Term agricultural development programs, which has Actions, and Supply Response often been a missing ingredient in past efforts. Reducing governments role to one coincident Little has been said about actions which have with government capability is important in a impact on agriculture immediately, compared to capacity-building strategy. This strategy paper action which has impact only in the long term. suggests that government should divest all In many cases, the distinction is difficult to commercial activities to the private sector, to make. Generally, the following will be the time- cooperatives, and to NGOs. Commercial dimension of impact on agriculture. activities include, most obviously, farming, livestock-raising and agricultural marketing and Actions having immediate impact processing. African governments have become (within 1 year) involved in these commercial activities on a massive scale and so this divestiture is no - Agricultural policy Improve- simple feat. Less obviously, governments can ments (price, exchange rate, divest those components of agricultural tax, subsidy, market liberaliza- research, extension, veterinary services, forestry tion, trade) services, pasture management, farm input - Agricultural extension supply, and irrigation that can be offered by the - Food security/nutrition private sector on a for-profit basis or at least for - Farm input supply a price. This will liberate government capacity to deal with those inputs to agriculture which Actions having medium-term impact (1-5 years) only governments can provide. These include, primarily, strategic planning in agriculture; - Road building natural resource management planning (land, - Soil conservation water, wildlife, bio-diversity), infrastructure - Development offarmers groups development, rural health and education, urban and cooperatives policy, and agricultural services which non- - Pro-active private sector government sectors will not take up. The agri- development cultural services which governments will need to - Irrigation development provide include agricultural research, extension, - Credit veterinary, forestry and market information - Privatization services which cannot be done for profit or sold - Regional integration for a price. Generally, these will be targeted to - Improved government manage- the poor, to poor regions, and to subsistence ment crops and livestock products, because the - Land tenure reform private sector will be least interested in these. In - Forest policy reform many cases, even in the government's domain, - Agricultural research private enterprises can be contracted to under- take the work on behalf of government (such as Actions having only long-term impact in research, road building, park management). (5+ years) The more limited the capacity of government, the greater should be the use of non- - Education governmental institutions to implement govern- - Population policy ment plans on contract. - Health services 106 Common Strategic Themes and Expected Impact - Bio-diversity conservation and such study explains the variations in crop yields National Enilronment Actions due to, among other things, changes in relative Plans prices, and macroeconomic variables. It found - Water resource and land an elasticity of cereal crop yields with respect to management the ratio of domestic to world prices of 0.14. - Drought contingency planning The interpretation is that a 10 percent increase - Geographic information systems in the ratio of domestic prices to world prices - Sound urban policy leads to 1.4 percent increase in cereal crop yields.' Analysis using data from CMte d'Ivoire Chapter 5 provided data suggesting that provided elasticities of agricultural value added intensively-adjusting African countries averaged with respect to agricultural taxation of -0.3 (i.e. agricultural growth at 3.7 percent per annum 10 percent increase in agricultural taxation leads during 1987-1991, compared to 2.2 percent for to three percent decline in agricultural value less intensively-adjusting African countries, and added).5 0.5 percent for non-adjusting countries. This short- to medium- term response works Among the measures traditionally taken through agricultural profitability. Policy reforms under structural adjustment programs, pricing which increase real agricultural prices compared reforms (input and output, credit, and currency to the price of farm inputs, through exchange exchange, market liberalization) are at the apex. rate change, price policy, tax reform, or market The effectiveness of the price system in liberalization, make investing in agriculture stimulating agricultural supply is now profitable. More labor, farm inputs and equip- established. The magnitude of the output ment are used in agriculture, and more land response to price stimuli, however, has always opened up as profitability increases. The study been subject to conflicting empirical evidence, using C8te d'Ivoire data empirically documented with price elasticities ranging from low to more these relationships. Because of the large magni- than one depending on countries, crops, level of tude of policy distortions in Africa, short- to aggregation, and methodology.' Low elasticity medium- term agricultural growth of up to 4 estimates are usually found for aggregate percent per annum in response to policy reform agricultural output because of asset fixity, an is to be expected, and as seen from the data in explanation that is not admitted by all re- Chapter 5, is occurring in a few countries. searchers. There is some empirical evidence in The response of agricultural supply to Africa regarding short- and medium-run agricul- improved agricultural policy tells little about the tural supply response to improved policy. longer term. Once prices are set right (that is, Jaeger's study of agricultural supply over time when most distortions are eliminated for agricul- for a sample of African countries found tural input and output, credit, and currency ex- elasticities of supply ranging from -0.10 to change markets) and agricultural taxation (direct -0.25 for real effective exchange rate changes and indirect) reduced to reasonable levels, signi- and from 0.10 to 0.50 for aggregate increases in ficant increase in agricultural output can only be the level of agricultural prices.' This implies obtained from changes in the level of supply that a 10 percent depreciation in the real shifters. The most determinant of these shifters effective exchange rate generates an increase in in the case of Sub-Saharan Africa is technology, agricultural value added of from I to 2.5 i.e. a combination of material (land, labor, and percent; a 10 percent real increase of aggregate equipment) and non-price factors such as educa- agricultural price stimulates a 1 to 5 percent tion, infrastructure, research, and extension. increase in agricultural value added. There have Putting these factors to work to impart a right- been several recent studies of agricultural supply ward shift in the whole aggregate agricultural response which obtain the same results. One supply schedule will entail investment on- and 107 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank off-farm, expansion in the quality and quantity education and rural health care, high levels of of agricultural labor, greater farm input use, investment in rural infrastructure, a compara- changes in environmental conditions, and tively secure land tenure situation, and a perhaps most important, technological relatively welcoming environment for private innovation. These are the medium- and long- investment in agriculture and agro-industry, has term measures previously described. permitted maintenance of agricultural growth in Evidence of long-term agricultural supply the 3.5 to 4.5 percent per annum range for two response is more difficult to establish decades. Recent political and policy difficulties empirically. While many authors found aggre- reduced agriculture growth drastically in 1991, gate agricultural supply to be inelastic, Peterson and combined with drought, indicated a difficult found a long-term elasticity output with respect situation for 1992. The Kenya experience to real price changes in the international arena (which by and large parallels that of C6te of about 2.8.' Peterson qualifies his measure as d'Ivoire) demonstrates both the importance of the theoretical maximum output response to the factors which can sustain agricultural growth price stimuli, reached after transitory price at high levels over a long period of time and effect and shifters have fully unfolded. In the also the fragility of agricultural growth once case of Sub-Saharan Africa, accurate measures these factors disappear or when there is a of long-term agricultural supply response to significant exogenous shock such as a drought price policy is even less certain. This is because or lasting adverse world market conditions. political instability, quick changes in policy, and The magnitude of the effects of non-price major climatic shocks which are a prominent factors of output growth is usually derived from feature in the subcontinent have not permitted production function estimates. A review of the long-term factors to operate in most African several production function studies suggest that countries. There are few African countries in the combined sum of factor output elasticities which the policy environment and the political are close to unity, suggesting a constant return situation have been stable enough, so that the to scale. The elasticity estimates for individual impact of medium- and long-term measures on factors vary within a relatively wide range: 0.30 agriculture can be observed over a reasonable to 0.75 for labor and from 0.20 to 0.80 for period of time. Kenya is one of the few coun- land. In the few studies that have estimates of tries which has had relatively good macro and capital elasticities of output with respect to agricultural policy and political stability for a capital, the figures hover around 0.15. Table long period of time. Relatively high levels of 10.1 contains factor elasticity estimates from agricultural investment, better than average rural selected studies. 108 Table 10.1. Elasticities of Agricultural Output with Respect to Factors of Production Study Kawagoe Bhana- Hayami Evenson Yamada Mundiak Hayami, RuUan charjee Hayami Runan Kisley Nguyen Ruuan Antle Helling Darwin Gezira Chiwesh Tshibaka deaver M. of Norihe Eassem Cd&e C4sstries (22 LDCs) (22) (38) (38) (36) (40) (41) (66) (58) Zimbab Sudab 5mbabc Mgeria Burina fre d7lire' Factor Labor 0.534 to 0.608 0.30 0.45 0.40 0.20 0.35 0.35 0.40 0.40 0.06 0.33 0.07 0.36 0.74 .34 to .44 0.45 Land Insignif. to 0.094 0.40 0.20 0.10 0.10 0 0 0.15 0.20 0.82 0.37 0.51 0.42 0.20 (0.45) Livesock 0.140 to 0318 0 - 0.25 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.20 Fertilizer Insignif. to 0.162 0.30 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.15 0.25 0.10 0.10 0.10 Machinery 0.060 to 0.136 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.15 0.05 Geneial Education literacy Ratio 0.276 to 0.287 School Earoll. .405 to .405 0.45 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.25 Tech. 0.166 to 0.178 0.10 0.15 0.10 0.20 0.15 Education Research 0.10 0.20 Infrastructure 0.20 Rainfall 0.10 a. Smallholder, highland, raisfed, black soils, animal traction. b. Medium-scale, irrigated, black soil, mechanized. c. Smallholder, highland, rainfed, red soils, animal traction. d. Smallholder, rainfed, red and brown soils, animal traction and hand hot. Millet and sorghum accounted for 54 percent of acreage. Productivity expressed in sorghum, assuming a producer price of 1/2 shilling per kilogram. e. Smallholder, rainfed, red soils, animal traction and hand hoe. f. Factor elasticity is 0.44 for male labor and 0.34 for female labor. g. Land was not specified as a separate input because of its close connection with labor. An expanding labor force clears new land using little in terms of modern inputs and equipment. The coefficient with respect to labor, therefore, measures the effects of labor and land together. Sources: J. M. Antle, Infrastrucnure and Aggregate Agricultural Productivity: International Evidence, Economic Development and Cultural Charge, Vol. 31, pp. 609-19, 1983. J. P. Battacharjee, 'Resource Use and Productivity in World Agriculture," Jounal of Farn Economics, Vol. 37 pp. 57-71, 1955. K. Cleaver, 'An Agricultural Growth and Rural Environment Strategy for the Coastal and Central African Francophone Countries,' Report No. 9592-AFR, Technical Department, Africa Region, World Bank, 1992. R. E. Evenson and Y. Kisley, Agricultural Research and Producivitry, Yale University Press, New Haven, 1975. Y. Hayami, 'Sources of Agricultural Productivity Gap among Selected Countries,' Journal ofAgriculural Economics, Vol. 51, pp. 564-75, 1969. Y. Haysmi and V. W. Ruttan, Agricultural Development: An Intenational Perspective, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1971. T. Kawagoe, Y. Haysmi and V. W. Ruttan, 'The Intercountry Agricultural Production Function and productivity Differences Among Countries", JournalofDevelopment Economics, Vol. 19, pp. 113-32, 1985. Y. Mundlak and R. Hellinghauen, '1he Intercountry Agricultural Production Function: Another View," American Journal ofAgricultural Economics, Vol. 61, pp. 565-70, 1982. Nguyen, 'On Agricultural Productivity, Differences Among Countries,' American Journal ofAgricultural Economics, Vol. 61, pp. 565-70, 1979. S. Yamada and V. W. Runan, 'International Comparisonsof Productivity in Agriculture,' in J.W. Kendrick and B.N. Vaccara. eds., New Developments in Producivity MeasurementandAnalysis, University of Chicago Press, pp. 509-99, 1980. A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Table 10.2. Historic Input-Output Linkages Resulting historic output Historic input growth growth due to input rates growth Input (% per annum) Elasticity (% per annum) Land and labor 2.5 0.80 2.0 Fertilizer 0.5 0.05 0.02 Capital stock 4.0 0.15 0.60 Rainfall -1.0 0.30 -0.60 Sum of factors 2.02 a. These input growth rates are very approximate, given the poverty of the data available. Particularly bad are rainfall and farm inveatment data. However, there is some evidence of declines in rainfall in many African countries. In C6e d'1voire, for example, there has been an accelerating long-term decline in rainfall (see Chapter 2). Based on these studies, one can project once the gains from agricultural policy improve- growth based on an assumed sum of average ment have been achieved. Improving the quality land and labor elasticities equal to about .8, of labor through health and education measures capital elasticity of 0.15, fertilizer of .05, and will increase the elasticity of output with respect rainfall of 0.30. Applying past average growth to labor input. Fertilizer and other modem input rates for each of the four factors of production growth will have to be greatly expanded. It is so in Africa, the following figures emerge. low now that an expansion of 10 percent per annum is feasible for the next fifteen years. Historic Growth Rate Investment has increased in African agriculture, but the impact has been low because its Agricultural output growth over the long- efficiency has been poor. This low efficiency is term in Africa has been at about 1.9 percent per represented by the extraordinarily low elasticity annum, slightly lower than predicted from the of output with respect to agricultural investment. estimates derived from the sample studies of This reflects poorly-conceived donor and Table 10.2. It is possible that the effects of government investment projects which have had exogenous factors such as drought and rainfall very little impact in the past. Implementation of has not been fully accounted for during the the recommendations of this document should period of interest. Higher rainfall elasticity, greatly improve the efficiency of investment. close to 0.50 is found by Jaeger.' When a A prospective scenario about long-term higher rainfall elasticity is used, instead of 0.3, changes in both the responsiveness of output to then the predicted growth becomes closer to the various inputs and changes in the supply of observed growth. these inputs to reach long-term agricultural The preceding numbers suggest how difficult growth rates of 4 percent per annum (assuming it will be to maintain long term agricultural good agricultural and economic policy, as well growth rates in the 4 percent per annum range as political stability) are as follows. 110 Common Strategi Themes and P.xpe d Impact Table 10.3. Prospective Input-Output Linkages Projected output growth due to input Input Growth rate growth Input (% per annum) Elasticity (% per annum) Land and labor 1.8 1.0 1.8 Fertilizer 10.0 0.1 1.0 Capital stock 6.0 0.2 1.2 Rainfall 0.0 0.60 0.0 Sum of factors 4.0 In a conventional development pattern, land are projected to be around 1.8. Technologi- agricultural labor force declines with the cal change has been embodied in the elasticities passage of time. While this happens, of output with respect to labor and capital which productivity of labor increases, sometimes to an become more efficient, while the efficiency of extent such that labor contribution to output farm input use doubles. Rainfall is assumed to growth is at least sustained. Many African stabilize as the result of successful natural countries have witnessed a decline in resource management strategies. The rate of agricultural labor force without a prospect of an growth of farm capital, already high, increases increase in labor productivity. In their study of slightly. Modern farm input use is the area the patterns of growth and demographic where much needs to be done. The current low processes, Chenery and Syrquin, after plotting level of fertilizer use (relative to other develop- agricultural labor productivity indices for about ing countrits) suggests that there is room for 100 countries against their income level, found further increase. It is assumed that fertilizer use that relative labor productivity falls when expands very rapidly, at 10 percent per annum. income levels are low and then increases A 10 percent increase, although high given the gradually as modern technology is adopted in current situation, is quite plausible. This results the rural sector.' Thus, they conclude, to from better extension, and a general improve- increase the labor productivity in agriculture is ment in farmers' support services and infrastruc- a question of time needed to acquire technical ture. While the figures presented here are specu- knowledge and set immobile productive factors lative, they can be achieved in Africa, though in motion. As for land, further clearing for with great difficulty. However, without the mea- cultivation at the pace of the past two decades, sures proposed in this strategy document, conti- that caused for example COte d'Ivoire's forest nuation of the present low elasticities and pre- cover to deplete at five percent per annum, will sent low growth of modern farm inputs could be simply not be possible. expected, with the result that agricultural growth Thus, in the prospective scenario described would be maintained at its present 1.5 to 2.0 in Table 10.3, the following assumptions are percent per annum in the long term-lower than made. Combined growth rates for labor and the population growth rate. 111 A Strategy to Develop Agricuhure in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Pocus for the World Bank Notes 1. See Carl Eicher, "Revitalizing the CGIAR system and NARSs in the Third World," Staff Paper No. 92-73, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, November 1992. 2. See the seminal review of several empirical studies by Askari, H and J. T. Cummings, Agricultural Supply Response, A Survey of the Econometric Evidence, Praeger Publishers, New York, 1976. See especially pp 390-412 where more than 600 elasticity estimates are tabulated. More recently a critical discussion of several supply elasticity estimates for Sub-Saharan Africa is presented in Osita and Gbetibouo, "Agricultural Supply Response in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Critical Review of Literature," AfWca Development Review, Vol. 2 No. 2, pp. 84-99, 1990. 3. William Jaeger, "The Effects of Economic Policies on African Agriculture," World Bank Discussion Paper, African Technical Department Series No. 147, 1992. 4. K. Cleaver, and G. Schreiber, The Population, Agriculture, and Environment Nexus In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Long Term Perspective, op. cit. 5. World Bank, An Agricultural Growth and Rural Environment Strategy for the Coastal and Central African Francophone Countries, Report No. 9592-AFR, September 4, 1992. 6. Peterson, W. "International Supply Response", Agricultural Economics, Vol. 2, 1988, pp. 365-74. 7. In Jaeger's study, given that rainfall data are generally poor or simply not available for many countries, he uses as a proxy the residuals from a regression trend line for cereal yields. The rationale for this is that for most countries, weather variations are the most determinant factor of the deviation of annual cereal output levels from their trend course. 8. Chenery, H. and M. Syrquin, Patterns ofDevelopment, 1950-1970, New York, Oxford University Press, 1975. 112 PART III The World Bank's Role 11. Areas of Focus for the Bank Policy Reform and Long-Term Agricultural programs. They may include sector- wide quick- Development Programs disbursing operations or sub-sector operations which are more targeted. Consistent with the priorities set out in the An essential ingredient is the commitment of preceding text, the World Bank will continue to government and the people. Much more effort support agricultural policy reform in Africa. will be needed to mobilize this commitment than The strategy suggests that both the agricultural has been undertaken in the past. This will be content of adjustment, and the commitment of encouraged by more widespread participation in governments; to implementation, need to be the preparation of and discussion about medium- increased in most of Africa if agricultural and long-term agricultural development growth, and the performance of the Bank's programs. This will mean that the Bank will agricultural portfolio, is to be improved in the have to be less directive, and more responsive short- as well as the long-term. The Bank to local initiatives. The Bank should not go should support agricultural policy reform only forward with major sector programs without this where there is an acceptable medium- and long- commitment. Discussion and creation of term economic policy framework, and where a commitment with borrowing countries will be as medium- and long-term agricultural important as the technical analysis which goes development program is prepared, offering into preparing such programs. The result of this reasonable hope for good growth. These new approach will be more selective support by programs should address the various issues the Bank of African agricultural development presented in this strategy paper. programs. More sector work, and more sector Expanded areas of agricultural policy reform policy lending will be the result. Because these compared to those presently emphasized include sector loans will support part of the medium- to land tenure, rural infrastructure, rural long-term plans, they can provide for better education, government restructuring, rural credit phasing of reforms. Reforms such as price, tax, markets, natural resource management, and subsidy, and credit reforms which liberate development of farmers' groups. Many of these African capacity and can be undertaken quickly, expanded areas require both better policy and will have immediate impact. More difficult investment. Therefore, medium- and long-term reform such as land tenure, privatization and development programs should deal with both, management of natural resources can be They should indicate the expected role of the implemented more slowly. private sector, private voluntary organizations, The Bank needs to advocate more fbrcefuilly farmers' groups, donors, as well as the agricultural trade and subsidy reform in government. The agricultural policy operations industrial countries, as an important ingredient financed by the Bank can be kept simple and in African agricultural development. This can be manageable by financing a series of such done through the Bank"s Board of Directors, 115 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank more vocal Bank participation in international excessive urban bias in expenditures, poorly- trade negotiations such as the GATT, and more conceived agricultural investments, and low- Bank publications on the matter. priority expenditures in other sectors. Consistent Public expenditure programs related to with the recommendations of this strategy paper, agriculture continue to be poorly conceived in government-owned and managed commercial most African countries. Within the agricultural activities should be divested over time to the sectors, large amounts of resources are spent on private, cooperative, and NGO sectors. Many poorly- performing agricultural projects, thus public goods type services that remain under starving high-priority investments. In addition, government management can be contracted to little is going to rural infrastructure. From the the private sector to manage. More emphasis in broader perspective of total public expenditure PERs is needed on the allocation of recurrent programs, there continues to be an urban bias in expenditure (usually going largely to salaries). public investment. Bank public expenditure Reviews should be undertaken collaboratively reviews are not leading to solutions. Reviews by governments and donors. They need to be tend to be too academic, and not sufficiently followed up in the context of future donor action-oriented. Reviews seldom lead to strong assistance and redesign of ongoing assistance. recommendations, followed up by Bank action With respect to ongoing assistance, disburse- regarding the structure of expenditures (e.g. ments of Bank and donor funds should be more salaries as opposed to other operating costs, closely tied to project performance, not just to investment as against maintenance, subsidies as reimbursement of project expenditures. against productive outlay, rural as opposed to Where economic and agricultural policy is urban, and the level of military expenditure). good, and where public expenditure programs Problems with projects financed by other donors for agriculture are well designed, donors should are often not given enough attention. One result move to support comprehensive agricultural in- is the common problem of lack of local funds vestment programs. These could involve both for important agricultural programs. public and private sector investments. Countries A related problem is that the commitment of where such a situation is now developing in- many African governments to agricultural clude Zambia, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Tanzania, development has been frequently overestimated. Mauritius, and Botswana. Other countries that Lack of commitment is reflected in the have potential for this include Togo, Uganda, inadequate allocation of funds to the agricultural Nigeria, and Burundi. Agreed improvements to sector. Finally, the present situation has been public expenditure programs must increasingly exacerbated by a worsening budget squeeze in be, with good policy, a pre-condition to Bank many countries. Bank rules requiring that Bank agricultural lending in all African countries. financing be provided to cover only New agricultural projects in countries which "incremental" recurrent costs, and this only on have a particularly poor agricultural portfolio a declining basis over the project lifetime, have need to be reviewed from a country perspective. not succeeded in inducing the increased Prior to appraisal, the sponsoring donor should expenditure by governments. This Bank policy, have a convincing reason as to why the new intended to increase the financial sustainability project will function satisfactorily, when of projects and to induce government ongoing projects are performing badly. Where commitment, has succeeded in doing neither. it is justifiable to undertake agricultural projects Improved Public Expenditure Program (PEP) in these countries, the projects should often be reviews are needed, with actions to be taken to small pilot operations, or at least narrowly- increase the priority accorded to critical defined simpler projects which can be well- agricultural investments, eliminating the managed despite the poor policy environment. 116 Areas of Focus for the Bank Support for Agricultural Investment Projects Incentives and assistance need to be improved to allow livestock owners to take real The Bank will support the strategic directions control of project services, pasture management suggested in previous chapters. In summary, the and other livestock development activities. most important project innovations will be as There is considerable potential for dairy follows. development in high potential areas. More focus Investment in private sector agro-processing, in livestock projects is required on private marketing and large farm activity needs to be sector and livestock owner management of expanded. Innovative ways of doing this need to marketing, input supply and veterinary services. be developed, and include targeted but Extension services need to provide livestock unsubsidized credit, equity funds which can messages. make equity investment, IFC's re-interest in this Irrigation projects can be improved with sector, support to trade and professional groups, greater ownership and management by farmers and reducing policy constraints. Parastatal and farmer's groups, less complex and more divestiture will be supported in Bank projects by small-scale schemes. The better operation and the financing of privatization programs, which maintenance of successful large-scale schemes can be considered as investments. The Bank should also be supported, involving water user will help mobilize donor and private sector associations. New large-scale schemes deserve assistance. skeptical scrutiny, but not automatic exclusion. Agricultural credit operations should expand More focus should be put on demand in the direction of farmer and privately- management and conservation in water managed savings and loan associations, and programs and less on supply augmentation. commercial banks operating in agriculture. The The importance of forestry and environment Bank has a role in assisting in both deve- projects, including natural resource manage- lopments, through lines of credit, technical ment, land tenure improvement, parks and assistance, establishment of guarantee funds, conservation is so great, and resource development of banking infrastructure, requirements for such projects so large, that the mobilization of donor assistance, and policy Bank will become increasingly involved in work. them. These will have an important policy The innovations in the design of agricultural element attached to them, and involve a larger research projects proposed by the SPAAR task role for NGOs and the private sector. Extension forces studying the Sahel and SADC situations, of natural resource management messages to should be incorporated in on-going and future local populations will be important. Projects agricultural research projects. Most important is should be based on some form of natural the introduction of non-governmental actors in resource management plan to which there is agricultural research, and the complete re- popular and government commitment. These can structuring of public sector research establish- be incorporated in Tropical Forest Action Plans, ments. Improved funding mechanisms and Forest Strategies, Environmental Action Plans, multi-country collaboration will be required, River Basin Plans, or some other planning involving collaborative donor effort. vehicle appropriate to the country context. Agricultural extension projects, ongoing and These programs should follow the principles planned, need to include a bigger role for the discussed in Chapter 9. Projects will support private sector, NGOs, cooperatives, and policy change, training, and the strengthening of women. Agricultural education, mass media government institutions dealing with natural communication to farmers, and expanding the resources. The Bank will undertake environ- scope of extension messages are important mental assessments for all new projects which innovations. may have negative environmental impact. If 117 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank found to have negative environmental impact, Improving health, education and family projects will either be redesigned or dropped. planning services in rural areas are important An expansion of Bank activity in the area of inputs to agricultural development, as well as rural roads and water supply is required. This desirable in and of themselves. This is all the needs community participation in maintenanct, more apparent with the onset of an AIDS and the use of private contractors for epidemic in some countries. construction. A reduction of the urban bias of The Bank should make expanded use of pilot African government public expenditure is operations and small operations to test new needed, and within the urban budget, relatively ideas. New ways of working through farmers more investment is needed in secondary towns groups, NGOs, funding private enterprises, and cities and less in the large mega-cities. financial intermediation, community-based Secondary towns and cities are more intimately infrastructure development, natural resource connected to agriculture, while mega-cities management, food security, among others, depend more on imports. requires considerable experimentation. Farmer empowerment in all the areas listed The Bank should finance more operating will be necessary. Assistance to cooperatives, costs, and in some cases, less capital costs. In farmers organizations and land tenure reform fact, in many agricultural operations, the are all ways of doing this. This assistance will distinction made in the past between capital largely be in the form of training and policy investment and operating expenditure is false. A reform to permit farmer associations to major investment needed to develop African function. Beneficiary assessment should become agriculture is in building African capacity to standard practice in Bank-financed agricultural manage the sector, In many cases, this will projects. require donors to finance operating costs. Focus The particular constraints of women in on capital expenditure has led to the wasteful farming, processing, fuelwood gathering, concentration on acquisition of buildings, household management, water collection, among equipment, and other investment goods, rather others, need continuous special attention in all than on the management and content of project design (for example in extension, credit, agricultural activities and development of the land tenure, forest, and private sector in human resource base. Greater donor funding of projects). In many cases, interventions tailored operating costs of agricultural projects would to women will be necessary (targeted extension help turn attention to content rather than messages, support for lending to women's hardware. groups, protection of user rights to land by The Bank will have to become more female-headed households, support to women's responsive to initiatives developed in Africa and groups involved in processing through training by other donors. and credit). Eliminated from Bank support will be Food security interventions involve more integrated rural development projects; exclusive than expanding food production. Nutrition support for parastatal agricultural marketing, interventions, employment creation among the processing and credit institutions; exclusive poor, better food distribution, regional focus on government institutions in agriculture integration of food markets (across country research, extension, forestry, and livestock borders), among others, are legitimate services, new large-scale irrigation projects and interventions to be supported by the Bank. The irrigation projects managed exclusively by Bank will also assist in drought emergencies as governments; and exclusive government it is now doing in Southern Africa, and in the construction, operation and maintenance of rural Horn of Africa. infrastructure. The private sector and NGOs will 118 Areas of Focus for the Bank be systematically brought into Bank projects. prior to appraisal should include an assessment The Bank will move into more of a wholesale of the level of complexity of organization and role and less of a retail role. It will have to be management arrangements. Efforts should be more responsive to local initiatives, and more made to simplify organization and management willing to work with others, often in a to the degree possible. Greater focus needs to be coordinating role. Other donors will have an put, during project preparation, on project important role to play in helping Africans to management issues. Evidence should be implement this strategy. required that the project will be manageable with available staff. Strengthening Agricultural Project Overstretched governments can be assisted to Management and Capacity more effectively use their capacity by divesting many of their activities to the private and NGO There are frequent reports of weak sectors. Governments should regulate less and management from donor-financed agricultural should focus limited capacity on priorities. The projects. In some cases, projects are too Bank's experiment of allowing up to 100 per- complex to be managed by available government cent Bank financing of total recurrent costs for staff. In most cases, providing technical assis- agricultural research, but treating such costs as tance does not compensate for this situation. investments, will be closely monitored. This is Project-financed training programs in most cases applicable to other human resource investments do not resolve the problem. Often, training pro- such as agricultural extension and natural grams are potential solutions, but are poorly resource management and will assist in fully designed, or not designed at all at project start- utilizing available African capacity. up when they are needed. But the fundamental The counterpart funding problem common to problem is the frequent lack of capacity by many projects must be dealt with through the government staff to manage development pro- PERs as indicated previously, greater effort at jects, as discussed in Chapter 10. the design stage to ensure government commit- To resolve this problem, the design of ment, greater caution by the Bank in going project related training needs to be clearly forward with projects for which government defined, with implementation beginning before commitment is not adequate, increasing the role project start-up or at least in the first year of of the private and NGO sectors in projects (to start-up. More emphasis on training is generally reduce the government's fiscal burden), and needed in all projects, especially in project financing up to 100 percent of total recurrent management, procurement and accounting. costs on a long-term declining basis for Agricultural education projects, focusing on the agricultural research projects, and for other quality of education rather than on infrastructure agriculture service projects when there is will be financed to address the generic problem sufficient country justification. of management and technical skills. Capacity will also be developed through strengthened The World Bank's Lending Program, investment in rural education generally, and in 1992-1997 higher agricultural education (see Chapter 10). Projects should be simplified to fit the ability These priorities will be undertaken largely, of managers, with training, to implement. There though not exclusively, through the projects should be less recourse to expatriate technical receiving World Bank financing. The present assistance. All reviews of a project in the Bank program is as follows for July 1992-June 1997. 119 A Strategy to Develop Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa and a Focus for the World Bank Table 11.1. World Bank Agriculture Operations Loan Amount Number of Projects US$ million Agriculture Sector loans, and sector investment 11 612.2 Agriculture services (research, extension, seeds, inputs) 32 1142.9 Agro-industry, private sector, cooperatives, credit and 15 674.6 marketing Forestry, environment, natural resource management, 23 760.7 land tenure Food security (self-standing) 4 159.7 Irrigation and Drainage 6 210.1 Livestock/fisheries 9 302.1 TOTAL 100 3862.3 Other operations which will have an impact include water supply - loan amount: US$287 on agriculture, although are not directly focused million; nine population projects - loan amount: on agriculture, include the following: fifteen US$327.6 million. The Bank's various Struc- transport projects including rural roads' - loan tural Adjustment Loans will also influence amount: US$844.3 million; eight projects which agricultural growth.2 Notes 1. The loan amounts direct to the rural road components are not identified separately. 2. Generally, these projects are directed at macro-economic policy reform which affects agriculture. 120 ANNEX Tables Table A-1. Populten Growth Rates and Fertility Rates Average annual growth of populadon (percent) Total Fertilay Projected 1990- Rate Country 1965-80 1980-90 20L 1965 1990 Sub-Sahas Africa 2.7 3.1 3.0 6.6 6.5 Angola 2.8 2.5 3.0 6.4 6.5 Benin 2.7 3.2 2.9 6.8 6.3 Botswana 3.5 3.4 2.5 6.9 4.7 Burkina Faso 2.1 2.6 2.9 6.4 6.5 Burundi 1.9 2.8 3.1 6.4 6.8 Cameroon 2.7 3.2 2.9 5.2 5.8 Cape Verde 1.6 2.4 2.3 - - Central African Republic 1.9 2.7 2.5 4.5 5.8 Chad 2.0 2.4 2.7 6.0 6.0 Comoros 2.2 3.5 - - - Congo 2.8 3.5 3.3 5.7 6.6 C8te d'lvoire 4.1 4.0 3.5 7.4 6.7 Djibouti - 3.3 - - - Equitorial Guinea 1.7 1.9 2.3 - - Ethiopia 2.7 2.9 3.4 5.8 7.5 Gabon 3.6 3.9 2.8 4.1 5.7 Gambia, The 3.0 3.3 3.1 - - Ghana 2.2 3.4 3.0 6.8 6.2 Guinea 1.5 2.4 2.8 5.9 6.5 Guinea-Bissau 2.9 1.9 - - - Kenya 3.6 3.8 3.5 8.0 6.5 Lesotho 2.3 2.7 2.6 5.8 5.6 Liberia 3.0 3.2 2.6 - - Madagascar 2.5 2.8 2.8 6.6 6.3 Malawi 2.9 3.4 3.4 7.8 7.6 Mali 2.1 2.4 3.0 6.5 7.1 Mauritania 2.3 2.6 2.8 6.5 6.8 Mauritius 1.6 1.0 0.9 4.8 1.9 Mozambique 2.5 2.7 3.0 6.8 6.4 Niger 2.6 3.5 3.3 7.1 7.2 Nigeria 2.5 3.3 2.8 6.9 6.0 Rwanda 3.3 3.3 3.9 7.5 8.3 Sao Tome & Principe 2.1 2.7 - - - Senegal 2.9 3.0 3.1 6.4 6.5 Seychelles 1.9 0.7 1.0 - - Sierra Leone 2.0 2.4 2.6 6.4 6.5 Somalia 2.7 3.0 3.1 6.7 6.8 Sudan 2.8 3.1 2.8 6.7 6.3 Swaziland 2.8 3.3 3.5 - - Tanzania 3.3 3.5 3.1 6.6 6.6 Togo 3.0 3.5 3.2 6.5 6.6 Uganda 2.9 3.2 3.3 7.0 7.3 Zaire 2.8 3.1 3.0 6.0 6.2 Zambia 3.0 3.9 3.1 6.6 6.7 Zimbabwe 3.1 3.7 2.4 8.0 4.9 India 2.3 2.2 2.0 6.2 4.0 China 2.1 1.4 1.7 6.4 2.5 a. Projections are based on present trends. Hence the slight decline in growth rare results only from the slightly declining trend in a few countries. The projections include the position impact of HIV. They do not include the impact of more successful population programs. b. Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children who would be born alive to a woman (or group of women) during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years confirming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year. Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank, 1992 123 Table A-2a. Agriculoure's Shsare in GDP Agricul*s'j percentage share in GDP Country 1965 1990 Sub-Saharan Afta 40 32 Angola - 13 Benin 59 37 Botswana 34 3 Burkina Fas 37 32 Burundi 56 Cameroon 33 27 Cape Verde - - Central African Republic 46 42 Chad 42 38 Comoros - Congo, People's Republic 19 13 Cate d'Ivoire 47 47 Djibouti - Equatorial Guinea - - Ethiopia 58 41 Gabon 26 9 Gambia, The - - Ghana 44 48 Guinea - 28 Guinea-Bissau - - Kenya 35 28 Lesotho 65 24 Liberia 27 - Madagascar 25 33 Malawi 50 33 Mali 65 46 Mauritania 32 26 Mauritius 16 12 Mozambique 65 Niger 68 36 Nigeria 55 36 Rwanda 75 38 San Tome and Principe Senegal 25 21 Seychelles Sierra Leone 34 32 Somalia 71 65 Sudan 54 - Swaziland - - Tanzania 46 59 Togo 45 33 Uganda 52 67 Zaire 20 30 Zambia 14 17 Zimbabwe 18 3 India 44 31 China 38 27 Source: World Development Reporr, 1992, World Bank, 1992. 124 Table A-2b. Ag6iculaaWl Grwsh Value Added) Average Annual Peremage Change County 1965-73 1974-80 1981-85 1986-89 1990 1991 Sub-Sahamn AWcas 2.2 1.0 0.6 2.4 1.8 2.1 excluding Nigeria 2.1 2.1 0.2 1.9 1.1 1.0 Botswans 12.4 -1.3 -8.1 19.5 3.7 2.7 Lesotho - -1.2 -3.1 15.4 15.4b Cape Verde - - 4.0 12.0 -3.8 9.3 Congo, People's Republic of 4.1 2.2 2.0 7.2 0.1 -1.0 Mali 0.9 7.3 -6.4 7.0 -3.5 -3.2 Guinea-Bissau - -5.0 2.8 6.4 2.5 5.7 Mozambique - - -2.4 6.2 1.2 - Chad -0.7 -0.2 6.3 6.1 8.9 20.0 Uganda - - - 6.0 3.4 2.9 Zambia 2.0 0.9 2.3 5.7 -7.3 - Togo 2.6 2.3 7.3 5.2 -1.2 -0.7 Benin - 4.6 7.4 5.0 1.4 4.5 Comoros - - - 4.5 2.8 3.9 Tanzania 3.1 0.3 3.5 4.5 2.9 - Kenya 6.2 4.6 1.7 4.3 3.5 -0.7 Nigeria 2.9 -2.0 2.1 4.3 4.1 5.0 Ethiopia 2.1 0.9 -5.4 4.1 0.2 8.0 Sierra Leone 1.5 10.4 2.6 3.6 1.7 3.1 C&e d'Ivoire 4.9 4.5 -1.2 3.6 4.2 -1.5 Madagascar - -0.9 2.8 3.2 1.5 Burkins Paso - -0.5 1.7 3.1 -3.4 4.7 Somalia - 14.0 2.2 3.0 1.3 Zimbabwe - -1.6 4.0 2.9 -6.6 - Ghana 4.5 0.8 -0.4 2.7 -2.0 4.1 Zaire -1.7 0.9 2.6 2.6 2.6b Guinea - - - 2.5 3.1 2.2 Swaziland 8.0 3.8 0.5 2.2 2.2b Equitorial Guinea - - - 2.0 3.1 -1.3 Senegal 0.2 -2.2 1.6 1.8 10.3 -3.0 Malawi 4.1 4.9 4.4 1.8 0.0 14.2 Burundi 10.6 1.8 1.1 1.5 5.6 2.2 Central African Republic 2.1 1.5 2.5 1.5 0.0 -3.1 Mauritania -2.1 0.7 -1.1 1.0 -14.5 - Gambia, The 4.5 -3.4 -3.7 0.9 -14.1 - Gabon - - 2.7 0.1 3.3 -2.7 Cameoon 4.6 4.9 -1.4 -0.3 2.0 0.0 Sao Tome & Principe - - 0.1 -0.3 3.5 - Djibouti - - - -1.0 -1.0b - Angola - - -0.5 -1.3 -1.3b - Seychelles - 0.7 -2.9 -3.8 12.9 - Sudan 0.3 1.4 0.2 -4.7 -3.6 -4.2 Rwanda - 8.3 0.2 -5.0 5.4 0.1 Mauritius - -5.6 1.8 -6.5 31.3 -2.8 Niger -2.9 1.3 2.3 - 2.3b - Namibia - - - - - - Liberia - - - - - - 125 Table A-2b comin~d) CouMy 1%5-73 1974-80 1981-5 19869 1990 1991 3.3 3.6 4.4 2.5 -5.2 17.2 Agria 2.5 5.9 4.5 3.4 -17.0 35.0 Egyp, Arb Rpublic of 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.8 Libya - - - - Morocco 4.8 3.7 7.5 4.3 -6.7 20.3 Tunisia 6.6 0.8 5.5 -4.6 27.7 15.3 AU lU4ca (ErcL Sou tfra) 2.5 1.6 1.5 2.5 -0.2 6.6 South Africa 2.5 2.5 -2.5 5.4 -9.4 - copar4orComawus 3.1 2.1 5.4 4.7 5.6 1.8 Chia 2.8 2.0 9.0 3.3 7.5 3.2 India 3.3 1.7 2.9 7.1 4.2 0.0 Ina~.ia 4.8 4.1 3.0 3.5 2.5 0.9 South Asia (Excl. India> 2.2 2.4 3.6 1.9 6.3 33 a. Exchding Suth Africa b. Previou avallabls counn Ogure repeated c. Baglades, Nepal, Pakimlan, Sri Lanka Source: National more aa collected by Wodd Bank regional country cconomista and collated for the Global Coalition for Africa by the Trade and Finance Division, Toch~ial Departmeti, Africa Region, World Bank. 126 ThMe A-. Feeli Seræisy POp~d$lIac*ng PerMrg ~ Annge 411pt as Aurge uan Indar per A apisa ~od &esePity pO~ f~cing Per cep~ dety c~tae percenlge q(a -S cemat iMprs ~Odprød~cal ffi fy panen?uSAnd 979--100 Av~,.9g 190/82 19IM8l 1965 198649 ]m8 1974 1990 14-66 1~9-0 S=b-Sahan ~ 4fsk 98 28 2,074 2,027 87 4,209 7,838 94 Angola - - 1,907 1,742 74 149 272 127 81 Benia 18 2,019 2,115 92 8 126 94 112 Botweaa - - 2.025 2,251 97 21 87 134 113 Burkina Fa9o 2 32 1,882 2,002 84 99 145 113 114 bunAdi 26 2,131 2,320 100 7 17 100 92 Camero I 9 2,011 2,142 92 81 398 89 89 Cap Verd - - 2,500 107 163 Ceral Africa Rep. 1 29 2,055 1,965 87 7 37 94 91 Chad 2 54 2,395 1,821 76 37 36 124 85 Co~moeoe - - 2,059 88 - - 114 Coo.Pp~le's Rep. 0 27 2,260 2,519 114 34 94 110 94 Cda d'Ivor l 8 2,352 2,405 104 172 502 73 101 Djboti- - - - - - Equatora Guinea - - - - - E~hiopie 15 46 1,853 1,684 72 fig 687 1l 84 Gab. 0 7 1.955 2,398 103 24 57 110 84 Ga bia, T 0 19 - 2,339 98 - - 152 - Gha 4 36 1,937 2,167 94 177 337 120 97 Guina - - 2,187 2,007 87 63 210 106 87 Guinea-Bi..u - - 2,437 106 - 140 - Kanya 6 37 2,208 2,016 87 15 I88 119 106 Lsao~ho - 2,049 2,275 00 48 97 120 86 iberia 30 2,158 2,344 101 42 70 95 84 Madagancar l 13 2,447 2,174 95 114 183 105 88 Malawi f 24 2,259 2,057 89 17 115 87 83 IMali 3 35 1,938 2,114 90 281 61 00 97 Mauritafia 0 25 1,903 2,465 107 116 85 143 86 M ~aritiu 0 9 2,269 2,690 li8 160 210 Iil 00 Moraabique 6 49 1,712 1,604 68 62 416 132 si Niger 2 28 1,996 2,321 98 155 86 105 71 Nigera 14 17 2,185 2,083 88 389 502 125 106 Rwanda 24 ,856 1,817 78 3 21 78 77 Sao Toem and Purpe - - 2,529 108 - - - - Senegal 1 21 2,372 2,162 91 341 534 156 102 Seychels - - 2,117 91 - - - Sierra laa l 23 2,014 1,813 79 72 146 99 89 SOMIlia 2 50 1,718 1,781 77 42 194 144 94 Suda. 3 18 1,938 ,98 84 125 186 89 71 Swaziland -- 2,554 110 - 68 - Tanania 7 35 1,831 2,186 94 431 73 87 88 Togo 29 2,454 2.110 92 6 Ill l8 88 Uganda 6 46 2,361 2,034 88 36 7 110 95 Zaire 12 42 2,17 2.079 93 343 336 110 97 Zambia 3 48 2,072 2,028 87 93 00 98 103 Zimbabwe - 2,075 2,193 92 56 83 96 94 a. Average per capist dasly calone supply dta for 1986-1989divided by requirenwau ealabbhed by ab WHO [or each country. Noe: Food scurity is deined as acces to ough fod for an aclive and healhy life. The mmnimum daily calorie requirement o beet the energy neede of an average beaby pern, ns •akuiaa by *m WMd Health Organiaion of each counrry. i@ Laken into accour,. Index or food prodution, cereal inport~, per capita caloe& supply 1965: World Deveopmen, Indlearora, 1992, World Bank, 1992, except fmr Gua- , 16a Gambia, Conorus, Sao Turne and Principe, Cape Verde, Seychelles. Swaziland for which the *ource 4 Sub-Saharan 4Jfca: C~ziz Lo SusaubJe 49n~h. A Long-Ter Perspecie Samdy, World Bank, 1989. Per capita e~lora eupply 1986-989; 4ican Dewopment Indicairs. 1992, World Bank/UNDP, 1992, p. 322. Table A-4. Crop Fields Cereals Roots and tubers Percentage Percentage Change Change kg/ha Compared to kg/ha Compared to Cowuy 1984-86 1964-66 1984-86 1964-66 Sub-Saharan Africa - - - - Angola 461 -47 14,088 22 Benin 825 54 8,241 34 Botswana 178 -52 5,385 35 Burkina Paso 690 33 6,568 96 Burundi 1,101 12 7,538 -3 Cameroon 935 18 2,455 10 Cape Verde 551 -11 3,007 -27 Central African Rep. 513 -31 3,882 10 Chad 531 -13 5,182 14 Comoros 1,116 -15 3,259 -4 Congo, People's Rep. 622 -43 6,457 31 Cote d'Ivoire 981 23 6,282 70 Djibouti - - - - Equatorial Guinea - - 2,395 -33 Ethiopia 1,081 39 2,827 -7 Gabon 1,481 -6 6,393 0 Gambia, The 1,207 15 3,000 -32 Ghana 969 7 8,641 5 Guinea 728 -10 7,089 -5 Guinea-Biasa 848 19 6,154 0 Kenya 1,611 31 8,929 21 Lesotho 683 -12 15,000 3 Liberia 1,302 107 4,014 -3 Madagascar 1,731 1 5,926 -7 Malawi 1,162 24 4,231 -13 Mali 807 3 9,240 12 Mauritania 431 20 1,903 -24 Mauritius 3,200 59 25,939 108 Mozambique 660 -29 5,783 20 Niger 366 -30 8,877 10 Nigeria 1,121 67 11,260 43 Rwanda 1,289 2 7,780 42 Sao Tome and Principe - - - - Senegal 709 24 4,232 2 Seychelles - - - - Sierra Leone 1,431 8 3,425 -6 Somalia 725 47 10,792 8 Sudan 508 -27 3,408 -1 Swaziland 1,528 225 1,815 -53 Tanzania 1,109 41 11,075 109 Togo 865 83 10,498 -12 Uganda 949 5 6,432 64 Zaire 851 24 7,016 4 Zambia 1,747 106 3,687 13 Zimbabwe 1,460 63 4,907 22 India 1,590 76 14,268 61 China 3,891 122 15,614 81 Source: World Development Report, World Bank, 1991. 128 Table A-5. Growth Rates of Cereal and Major Faport Crop Yields Average Annual Percentage Growth Cereals M4jor export crop Couny 1975-80 198045 1986-MR 197540 1980-85 1986-MR Angola (maize,coffee) -6.1 -4.5 -6.9 -21.4 -19.7 -14.3 Benin (maize, cotton) 1.2 3.8 7.0 -2.0 13.6 -0.8 Botswana (maize, n.a.) -28.7 -11.9 -16.2 - - - Burkina Paso (maize, cotton) 7.4 -1.9 7.7 5.5 7.3 -5.3 Burundi (maize, coffee) -1.3 0.6 -0.8 4.2 9.6 -1.3 Cameroon (maize, coffee) -7.3 0.3 4.0 2.8 0.6 -10.3 CAR (maize, coffee) -2.4 16.9 -4.6 -1.0 1.6 4.4 Chad (sorghum, cotton) -0.8 -1.8 0.0 2.0 6.9 -4.8 Congo (maize, coffee) 3.7 -4.5 7.4 18.7 1.0 16.2 C6te d'Ivoire (maize, coffee) 6.3 1.8 -1.2 -6.5 -10.8 -8.4 Eq. Guinea (cassava, coffee) -0.4 -1.7 -0.3 0.8 1.4 0.0 Ethiopia (maize, coffee) -2.5 -5.1 1.2 3.7 1.0 3.2 Gabon (maize, coffee) 4.1 -3.0 7.6 1.6 9.9 2.9 Gambia, The (maize, cotton) 11.8 3.0 -3.1 - -5.5 0.6 Ghana (maize, cocoa) -2.9 -0.5 5.9 -3.6 -1.0 11.2 Guinea (maize, coffee) -3.3 2.4 -0.1 -0.1 -3.7 -2.2 Guinea-Bissau (maize, groundnuts) -1.2 3.6 -11.4 -3.5 5.1 2.5 Kenya (maize, coffee) -7.2 4.0 -1.3 3.9 -5.9 -0.6 Lesotho (maize, wheat) 11.4 -4.6 6.3 3.8 -12.3 3.5 Liberia (rice, coffee) 0.5 0.0 -1.0 7.5 3.9 -23.2 Madagascar (rice, coffee) -1.4 1.5 3.3 -1.7 -1.1 0.6 Malawi (maize, tea) 3.5 -0.1 4.3 1.6 1.1 1.8 Mali (maize, cotton) 12.9 2.9 5.2 1.2 2.6 -3.1 Mauritania (maize, rice) 11.6 -9.6 -4.2 -2.1 7.0 -1.6 Mauritius (potatoes, sugarcane) 1.7 8.7 0.3 1.1 2.1 -3.7 Mozambique (maize, cotton) 4.7 -2.7 0.0 1.3 -7.4 -11.8 Namibia (maize, wheat) -0.9 0.6 2.9 0.0 4.3 -5.3 Niger (sorghum, groundnuts) 6.3 -10.2 -0.2 28.7 -11.5 9.2 Nigeria (maize, cocoa) -1.3 -5.2 1.5 -4.5 -6.7 15.9 Rwanda (maize, coffee) 1.4 0.5 0.4 3.3 2.2 7.9 Senegal (maize, cotton) -6.5 9.7 6.4 -3.7 -1.4 7.6 Sierra Leone (rice, coffee) -3.8 2.5 -4.3 13.7 -11.2 -17.8 Somalia (maize, bananas) -1.41 8.5 -6.7 1.0 -0.1 -0.8 Sudan (sorghum, cotton) -2.7 -9.1 -4.8 -4.5 20.0 5.3 Swaziland (maize, cotton) -3.6 -0.8 7.7 6.4 -1.5 0.0 Tanzania (maize, coffee) 1.0 1.1 9.7 -1.8 -0.4 -8.3 Togo (maize, coffee) -0.8 -1.5 20.9 -5.7 -13.1 4.6 Uganda (maize, coffee) 1.1 -3.1 2.7 -8.3 4.9 10.2 Zaire (maize, coffee) 2.1 1.0 2.4 -4.3 -0.2 0.4 Zambia (maize, cotton) 3.3 0.9 3.9 -5.4 11.5 -2.5 Zimbabwe (maize, cotton) -6.0 -1.5 1.1 0.8 3.3 -15.0 Note: MR: Most Recent Year Source: Afiican Developnent Indicators, 1992, UNDP/World Bank, 1992. 129 Table A-6. Agricukural Erports - Value and Volume Average Annual Percentage Growth Value Volume Counny 1975-80 1980-85 19865-MR 1975-80 1980-85 1986-MR Sub-Sahara Africa 9.6 -2.4 -3.1 -0.8 -2.9 -2.5 Angola -2.4 -13.0 -36.5 -19.1 -14.2 -12.3 Benin 12.9 17.6 5.4 1.6 5.9 2.8 Botswana 3.2 0.8 3.5 -10.0 10.4 -28.0 Burkina Paso 10.9 -5.1 17.5 -0.8 -.1 0.9 Burundi 13.2 9.5 -15.9 -14.4 10.0 10.2 Cameroon 17.7 -5.2 -1.2 -1.2 0.0 1.5 Cape Verde 43.5 -23.3 18.6 -12.0 -6.7 -11.5 CAR 13.2 -0.9 -5.0 -5.6 -0.3 1.8 Chad 14.2 6.1 9.0 3.2 -6.6 -4.2 Comoros 9.7 0.9 -5.9 -1.6 8.5 -32.3 Congo 6.6 4.1 -3.5 -24.8 34.2 1.6 C6te d'lvoire 19.9 1.5 -8.6 2.3 3.6 -4.0 Eq. Guinea 2.5 8.7 -16.4 -7.2 7.7 4.4 Ethiopia 13.7 -2.9 -11.2 -14.5 8.1 11.2 Gabon 48.9 -10.0 -19.3 13.5 -3.0 -11.5 Gambia. The -9.1 -1.6 3.1 -11.6 -3.6 23.2 Ghana 7.2 -10.6 -7.4 -13.4 -5.1 8.6 Guinea 13.3 -10.4 0.2 3.4 -8.2 -1.3 Guinea-Bissau 7.8 8.1 11.5 0.6 0.2 -3.8 Kenya 15.2 1.7 -4.6 1.8 0.5 -1.7 Lesotho 12.2 4.2 16.2 -3.8 -5.6 -56.9 Liberia 21.4 -2.5 -5.0 0.9 2.3 -2.5 Madagascar 9.8 -6.1 -10.4 -5.5 -3.4 1.6 Malawi 13.5 0.7 10.0 11.3 5.0 -11.7 Mali 20.7 -2.1 9.6 13.0 -0.5 -6.0 Mauritania 15.9 -3.9 1.5 0.1 -6.7 -6.0 Mauritius 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.4 -0.7 1.7 Mozambique 7.0 -26.7 -1.1 -6.8 -23.9 17.0 Namibia 7.9 -3.8 9.5 - -2.1 10.0 Niger 18.6 -6.6 -7.2 5.5 -3.3 -14.0 Nigeria 3.2 -6.1 -7.4 -3.5 -17.2 1.8 Rwanda 10.3 1.6 -11.4 -19.7 6.0 -0.3 Sao Tome & Principe 24.7 -14.8 -10.4 6.2 -12.5 -3.1 Senegal -12.4 6.7 22.0 -18.1 -3.0 33.2 Seychelles 13.4 -14.9 -19.4 -4.7 -7.9 -37.2 Sierra Leone 18.7 -1.7 -24.2 -7.3 -2.4 -0.4 Somalia 11.2 -14.3 -7.8 6.4 -10.6 -21.7 Sudan 4.2 -4.1 13.4 6.6 -6.9 24.2 Swaziland 14.0 -12.7 6.2 -7.0 2.3 -8.0 Tanzania 4.2 -10.0 -3.1 -4.6 -10.4 7.0 Togo 18.3 1.3 -4.8 0.9 0.6 -8.9 Uganda 4.8 5.1 -18.8 -15.3 8.2 2.1 Zaire 0.3 2.8 -19.3 -6.5 -2.7 -12.6 Zambia -2.6 4.9 2.7 -18.7 31.0 -31.6 Zimbabwe 2.4 -1.2 8.3 -11.8 3.6 -10.7 Nots: MR: Most Recent Year Source: ican Development Indicators, 1992, UNDP/World Bank, 1992. 130 Table A-. Producer Price Shares (Ratio of official producers price to international reference price) Average Country Conmodity 1975179 1980/85 1986-MR Angola Coffee .22 .45 .96 Benin Cotton Lint .45 .41 .54 Botswana Groundnut - .61 - Burkina Paso Cotton .42 .34 .56 Burundi Coffee .51 .60 .60 Cameroon Cotton .42 .37 .40 CAR Coffee .29 .18 .34 Chad Cotton .75 .51 .54 Comoros Vanilla .43 .32 .42 Congo Coffee .21 .26 1.09 C6tc d'Ivoire Cocoa Beans .40 .51 .79 Eq. Guinea Cocoa - .79 .90 Ethiopia Coffee .45 .39 .42 Gabon Cocoa .57 .49 .63 Gambia, The Groundnut .54 .62 .71 Ghana Cocoa .30 .87 .25 Guinea Palm Kennels 1.08 .86 .62 Guinea-Bissau Groundnut .63 .51 .34 Kenya Coffee .82 .88 .95 Lesotho Wheat - 1.40 1.26 Liberia Coffee .42 .64 .79 Madagascar Coffee .40 .29 .38 Malawi Groundnut .47 .65 1.01 Mali Cotton .34 .39 .50 Mauritius Sugar .90 .61 .52 Mozambique Tea .64 .56 .33 Niger Cotton .35 .45 1.13 Nigeria Cocoa .53 1.12 .49 Rwanda Coffee .58 .89 .81 Sao Tome & Principe Cocoa .36 .99 - Senegal Groundnut .42 .42 .81 Sierra Leone Cocoa .47 .66 .42 Somalia Bananas - .43 .33 Sudan Groundnut .55 .40 .96 Swaziland Cotton .46 .29 .27 Tanzania Coffee .39 .55 .36 Togo Coffee .24 .31 .54 Uganda Coffee .13 .22 .14 Zaire Coffee .18 .45 - Zambia Tobacco .75 .87 .36 Zimbabwe Tobacco .66 .62 .58 Note: MR: Most Recent Year Source: 4fian Development Indicators, 1992, UNDP/World Bank, 1992. 131 Table A-8. Irrigation and Fertlfter Use Ferdiziyr conusvwdtox Percetage ofri okas tion rrigated .a0gh Country 1985-87 1970-71 1989-90 Sub-Saharan Africa 4 33 89 Angola 0 33 74 Benin 0 36 18 Botswana 0 15 7 Burkina Faso 0 3 58 Burundi 5 5 35 Cameroon 0 34 41 Cape Verde 5 - - Central African Rep. - 12 4 Chad 0 7 15 Comorox I - - Congo 2 525 32 C6te d'lvoire - 74 113 Djibouti 1 - - Equatorial Guinea - - - Ethiopia 7 4 70 Gabon 0 - 27 Gambia, The 4 - - Ghana - 11 31 Guinea 2 44 11 Guinea-Bissau - - - Kenya 1 238 481 Lesotho 28 10 144 Liberia 1 63 107 Madagascar 9 61 36 Malawi 6 52 227 Mali 16 31 .4 Mauritania 3 11 116 Mauritius 1 2095 3302 Mozambique 3 22 8 Niger 0 1 8 Nigeria - 2 121 Rwanda 3 3 14 Sao Tome and Principe - - - Senegal 2 17 55 Seychelles 12 - - Sierra Leone 15 17 3 Somalia 38 27 26 Sudan 3 28 39 Swaziland 0 - Tanzania 0 31 93 Togo 0 3 83 Uganda 0 14 1 Zaire 0 6 10 Zambia 0 73 166 Zimbabwe 7 446 604 India 26 137 687 China 44 410 2619 a. Irrigated land as percentage of amble and permanent crop land; World Resources Institute. b. Fertilizer consumption in terms of hundreds of grams of plant nutrients per hectare of amble land; World Indicators 1992, World Bank, 1992. 132 Table A-9. Land Use Land use as a percentage of total land Wilderness area as Country Cropland Pasture Forest Other Total land area percent of Wkd land (t00 ha) area 1965 1980 1987 1965 1980 1987 1965 1980 1987 1965 1980 1987 1987 1985 Sub-Saharan Africa 6 7 7 27 27 27 33 31 30 34 35 36 2,158,466 28 Angola 3 3 3 23 23 23 44 43 43 30 31 31 124,670 26 Benin 13 16 17 4 4 4 44 36 33 39 44 47 11,062 is Botswana 2 2 2 74 78 78 2 2 2 23 18 18 56,673 63 Burkina Faso 8 13 11 37 37 37 30 26 25 26 27 27 27,380 3 Burundi 39 S1 52 24 35 36 2 2 3 35 II 10 2,565 0 Cameroon 12 Is Is 19 18 18 59 55 53 10 12 14 46,540 3 Cape Verde 10 10 10 6 6 6 0 0 0 84 84 84 403 42 Central African Rep. 3 3 3 5 5 5 58 58 58 34 34 34 62,298 39 Chad 2 3 3 36 36 36 12 11 10 50 51 51 125,920 52 Comoros 38 41 44 7 7 7 16 16 16 39 37 34 223 - Congo 2 2 2 29 29 29 64 63 62 5 6 7 34,150 16 C6tc d'Ivoire 8 10 11 9 9 9 60 31 20 22 50 59 31,800 0 Djibouti - - - 9 9 9 0 0 0 91 91 91 2,318 35 Equatorial Guinea 8 8 8 4 4 4 46 46 46 42 42 42 2,805 0 Ethiopia II 13 13 42 41 41 27 26 25 20 21 22 110,100 22 Gabon I 2 2 20 18 18 78 78 78 2 2 2 25,767 - Gambia, The 13 16 17 9 9 9 30 22 17 48 54 57 1,000 0 Ghana 12 12 12 16 15 15 43 38 36 31 35 37 23,002 0 Guinea 6 6 6 12 12 12 49 43 41 33 38 41 24,586 0 Guinea-Bissau 9 10 12 38 38 38 39 38 38 13 13 12 2,812 0 Kenya 3 4 4 7 7 7 8 7 6 82 83 83 56,697 25 Lesotho 13 10 II 73 66 66 - - - Is 24 24 3,035 80 Liberia 4 4 4 2 2 2 22 22 22 72 72 72 9,632 17 Madagascar 4 5 5 58 58 58 31 27 25 7 9 11 58,154 2 Malawi 21 25 25 20 20 20 54 54 46 5 2 9 9,408 10 Mali 1 2 2 25 25 25 8 7 7 66 67 67 122,019 49 Mauritania 0 0 0 38 38 38 Is 15 15 47 47 47 102,522 74 Mauritius 51 58 58 4 4 4 34 31 31 12 7 7 185 11 Mozambique 3 4 4 56 56 56 22 20 19 18 20 21 78,409 9 Niger 2 3 3 8 8 7 3 2 2 87 87 88 126,670 53 Nigeria 32 33 34 21 23 23 23 18 16 24 26 27 91,077 2 Rwanda 26 41 45 34 19 16 23 21 20 17 20 19 2,495 0 Sao Tome & Principe 35 38 39 I 1 I - - - 64 61 60 96 - Senegal 23 27 27 30 30 30 35 31 31 12 12 12 19,253 - Seychelles 19 19 22 - - - 19 19 19 63 63 59 27 0 Sierra Leone 20 25 25 31 31 31 30 30 29 19 15 15 7,162 0 Somalia I 1 I 46 46 46 16 Is 14 37 38 38 62,734 24 Sudan 5 5 5 24 24 24 24 21 20 47 51 51 237,600 40 Swaziland 8 II 10 78 64 68 8 6 6 6 19 16 1,720 0 Tanzania 4 6 6 40 40 40 51 49 48 5 6 7 88,604 10 Togo 20 26 26 4 4 4 45 31 25 31 39 45 5,439 0 Uganda 24 28 34 I5 25 25 32 30 29 19 16 13 19,955 4 Zaire 3 3 3 4 4 4 80 78 77 13 Is 16 226,760 6 Zambia 7 7 7 47 47 47 42 40 39 4 6 6 74,072 24 Zimbabwe 5 7 7 13 13 13 52 52 52 30 29 29 38,667 I India 55 - 57 5 - 4 20 22 20 - 17 297,319 20 China II - II 31 - 31 12 - 14 46 - 44 932,641 20 a. Refers only to areas larger than 4,000 square kilometers. Wilderness area is defined as land left in its natural state without any transformation by human action. These areas may partly include forests, pasture and other lands as classified by FAO. Source: World Resources 1988-89, FAO, World Resource Institute, and the International Institute for Environment and Development (in collaboration with the UN Environment Programme), 1988. Table A-10. Per Capita Arable Land Per capita arable land area (hec1ares) Country 1965 1980 1987 1990 2=f Sub-Saharan Africa 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.29 0.22 Angola 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.36 0.28 Benin 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.40 0.30 Botswana 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.06 0.70 Burkina Paso 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.40 0.25 Burundi 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.24 0.18 Cameroon 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.59 0.43 Cape Verde 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.11 0.08 Central African Rep. 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.66 0.48 Chad 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.56 0.51 Comoros 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.18 0.15 Congo, People's Rep. 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.07 0.22 C6te d'Ivoire 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.31 0.20 Djibouti - - - - 0.51 Equatorial Guinea 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.65 0.20 Ethiopia 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.28 0.35 Gabon 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.39 0.15 Gambia, The 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.21 0.14 Ghana 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.18 0.20 Guinea 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.13 0.28 Guinea-Bissau 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.35 0.07 Kenya 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.10 0.15 Lesotho 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.18 0.12 Liberia 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.14 0.20 Madagascar 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.26 0.19 Malawi 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.28 0.21 Mali 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.23 0.00 Mauritania 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.10 0.09 Mauritius 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10 0.15 Mozambique 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.20 0.36 Niger 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.47 0.19 Nigeria 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.29 0.11 Rwanda 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.16 0.23 Sao Tome and Principe 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.51 Senegal 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.71 0.08 Seychelles 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10 0.33 Sierra Leone 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.43 0.07 Somalia 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.14 0.36 Sudan 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.50 0.16 Swaziland 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.21 0.14 Tanzania 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.19 0.28 Togo 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.41 0.28 Uganda 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.36 0.14 Zaire 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.22 0.45 Zambia 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.62 0.21 Zimbabwe 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.29 India 0.3 - 0.2 - 0.16 a. 1987 arable land areas have been divided by the projected population of the year 2000. Source: PAO; World Development Report, 1991, World Bank, 1991; World Resources 1992-93, World Resources Institute, 1992. 134 Table A-11. Forest Area and Deforestation Deforestation, 1980s Country Forest and Thousand Reforestation, Woodland 1980 Percent per hectares per 1980s (thousand (thousand year year hectares per hectares) year) Sub-Saharan Africa 678,900 0.6 3,764 229 Angola 53,600 0.2 94 4 Benin 3,867 1.7 67 0 Botswana 32,560 0.1 20 - Burkina Faso 4,735 1.7 80 3 Burundi 41 2.7 1 3 Cameroon 22,300 0.8 190 2 Cape Verde - - - 0 Central African Rep. 35,890 0.2 55 - Chad 13,500 0.6 80 0 Comoros 16 3.1 1 0 Congo - 0.1 22 0 Cote d'Ivoirc 9,834 5.2 510 8 Djibouti 106 - - - Equatorial Guinea 1,295 0.2 3 - Ethiopia 27,150 0.3 88 13 Gabon 20,575 0.1 15 1 Gambia, The 215 2.4 5 0 Ghana 8,693 0.8 72 3 Guinea 10,650 0.8 86 0 Guinea-Bissau 2,105 2.7 57 0 Kenya 2,360 1.7 39 13 Lesotho - - - 0 Liberia 2,040 2.3 46 3 Madagascar 13,200 1.2 156 15 Malawi 4,271 3.5 150 1 Mali 7,250 0.5 36 1 Mauritania 554 2.4 13 0 Mauritius 3 3.3 0 0 Mozambique 15,435 0.8 120 5 Niger 2,550 2.6 67 3 Nigeria 14,750 2.7 400 32 Rwanda 230 2.3 5 4 Sao Tome and Principe - - - - Senegal 11,045 0.5 50 4 Seychelles - - - - Sierra Leone 2,055 0.3 6 0 Somalia 9,050 0.1 14 2 Sudan 47,650 1.1 504 17 Swaziland 74 - 0 7 Tanzania 42,040 0.3 130 11 Togo 1,684 0.7 12 1 Uganda 6,015 0.8 50 2 Zaire 177,590 0.2 370 1 Zambia 29,510 0.2 70 3 Zimbabwe 19,820 0.4 80 6 Source: Draft data from Table 13, Deforestation and Reforestation, African Indicators Project, World Resources Institute, March 1991. 135 Table A-12. Droughts (Significant rainfall shortage at the end of period D) Country 1979/80 1984/85 1988/90 Angola - - - Benin - - - Botswana - D - Burkina Faso - D - Burundi - D - Cameroon - Cape Verde - D - CAR - D - Chad - D - Congo - - - C8te d'Ivoire - - - Eq. Guinea - - - Ethiopia D D D Gabon - - - Gambia, The - D - Ghana - D - Guinea - - - Guinea-Bissau - - - Kenya - D - Lesotho - - - Liberia - - - Madagascar - - - Malawi D - - Mali - D - Mauritania - D - Mauritius - - - Mozambique - - - Namibia - - - Niger - D D Nigeria - - - Rwanda - D - Sao Tome & Principe - - - Senegal D D - Sierra Leone - - - Somalia - - - Sudan - D D Swaziland - - - Tanzania - D - Togo - - - Uganda - - - Zaire - - - Zambia - D - Zimbabwe - D - Source: African Development Indicators, 1992, UNDP/World Bank, 1992. 136 Table A-13. Soil Erosion in Selected Countries of Sub-Saharan Afica, 1970-86 Amount of Amount of Erosion Affected Area as Erosion (metric tons Location Percentage of (metric tons per hectare Year of Country (and extent) National Area per year) per year) Estmate Burkina Faso Central plateau NA NA 5-35 1970s Ethiopia a. Total Cropland (12 million ha) 10 500 million 42 1966 b. Central highland plateau (47 million ha) 43 1.6 million 0.03 1970s Kenya Njemps Flats NA NA 138 mid-1980s Tugan Plateau NA NA 72 mid-1980s Lesotho Grazing and croplands (2.7 million ha) 88 18.5 million 7 NA Madagascar a. Mostly cropland (45.9 million ha) 79 NA 25-250 1970s b. High central plateau NA 12-40 million 25-250 1980s Niger Small watershed (11,700 ha) 0.01 468,000 40 NA Nigeria a. Imo State (900,000 ha) 1 13 million 14.4 1974 b. Jos Plateau NA 6 million NA 1975 c. Anemora NA 10-15 million NA 1975 Zimbabwe Area with moderate to severe erosion 0.8 15 million 50 1979 (304,000 ha) NA indicates not available. Source: World Resources Institute and the International Institute for the Environment and Conservation. -4 Table A-14. Extent of Soil Degradation in Major Regions of the World, Early 1980s Productive Dryland Types Total Productive Drylands Rangelands Rainfed Croplands Irrigated Lands Area Area Area Area (million Percent (million Percent (million Percent (million Percent hectares) Degraded hectares) Degraded hectares) Degraded hectares) Degraded Total 3,287 87 2,586 62 570 60 131 30 Sudano-Sahelian Africa 473 88 380 90 90 80 3 30 Southern Africa 304 80 250 80 52 80 2 30 Mediterranean Africa 101 83 80 85 20 75 1 40 Western Asia 142 82 116 85 18 85 8 40 Southern Asia 359 70 150 85 150 70 59 35 USSR in Asia 298 55 250 60 40 30 8 25 China and Mongolia 315 69 300 70 5 60 10 30 Australia 491 23 450 22 39 30 2 19 Mediterranean Europe 76 39 30 30 40 32 6 25 South America and Mexico 293 71 250 72 31 77 12 33 North America 405 40 300 42 85 39 20 20 Source: United Nations Environment Programme. The term used is "desertification", which has been substituted here with the term degradation which is more accurate. Table A-15 - Evauation of African Agricutural R#search Institutions ~ inancig average per year (1990» Naonl Agiul Dev. of Na. Agricul . C~nULld. Re~sr Sys./ns. Resr Ma¶ PLan Fund. M^-A MW UM Don Country A~ £2"ý N~n PaN In& ~L. W&UO cm CfELSU Region B~rkina Faa. INERA/IRBET 2 X X 7.57 5.66 WB/FR Cape Verde NA i x X 2.27 1.61 POR Gambia DAR/MOA 2 X X n.a n.A US Guina-Bioau DEPA/MOA 1 X X n.a 1.04 POR Mali IER/NRZFH 2 X X 6.01 3.55 WB/US/NUFR Mauritania CNRADA I X X 0.49 0.29 FR Niger INRAN 2 X X 1. A .a WB/FR Senegal ISRA 3 X X 7.05 2.26 WB/US/FR Tchd BRA/IRCT/LRVZ i X X 7.10 6.19 FR MDC Region Angola INIA i X X 4.335 A.a PRO/NORDIC Botwana DRA/MOA 2 X X 5.849 I.a US/CA/FAO/SIDA/FR/UK Lotho ARD/MOA l X X 6.043 Ia US/UK/CA Malawi DRA/MOA 2 X X 4.902 Ia WB/US/UK/CA Mozambiqu6 INIA i X X n.& n. POR/NORDIC/CA Namibia* DAR/MOA i x X n.A n. FRG/US Sw-aijan ARD/MOA i X X 2.472 n.a US/UK/CA T=uzania DART/MOA 2 X X 20.417 n.a WB/UK/FRG/NORDC/CA/IT Zambia DAR/MOA 2 X X 3.576 .a WB/UK/US/BELJCA Zimbabwe* DRSS/ARC 3 X X 17.448 n.a WB/US/UK/NORDIC/CA WC4 Regon Benin DRA/MOA l X X 2.383 1.906 FR Camern~ IRA/aRZ 2 X X 15.069 7.685 WB/US/FR/UK/FRG C. Afr. Rep. DRA 1 X X n.a n.a FR Congo DGRST I X X 2.494 1.546 FR/UNDP/EDF Cate d'Ivoire IDESSA/IDEFOR 3 X X 28.330 11.615 FR Equat Guinea Non Known l X X n.a n.a ? Gabon DRA i X X 2.494 Kl.a FR Ghana CSIR/NARC 3 X X 3.344 0.334 WB/US/UK/CA Guinea INRA/MOA 1 X X 5.605 n.a FR/IFAD/EF Liberia CARI i X X 5.247 2.046 US Nigeria- NARC 3 X X 92.393 n.sa WB Sierr*-Lne IARINARCC i X 0.946 0.176 UK Sa Tome Pr. Non Known 1 X X 0.164 n.4 ? Togo DRA/MOA i X X 6.174 3.25 FR Zaire RNEA 2 X X 3.820 n1.0 WB/US/UNDP E.A. Higand. IGADD Reion Bun-di ISABU 2 X X 4.381 Kl.a WB/BEUUS Djibouti None Known i X X l.a nA. FR Ehiopia IAR 3 X X 11.323 n.a WB Kenya KARI/KEFRI 3 X X 28.397 n. WB/US/UK/EC/NUWR/CA Rwanda ISAR 2 X X 2.004 n.a WB/BEL Somali ARI/MOA l X X X 0.322 n.a WB Sudan DAR/MOA 2 X X 13.683 n.a WB Uganda DAR/MOA 2 X X n.a L.a WB/US Indian Ocean Island Comorom None Known 1 X X .a .a FR Madagacar FOFIFA 3 X X 7.318 ia.a WB/US/FR Mauritiua FARCIMOA 4 X X 5.546 n.a 7 SeychelH DCR/MOA 2 X X 11.a n.a 7 a. Evaluation Ratinge: 5 (Asia Sandard) 4 (Above Average) 3 (Average nfinimal acceptable sandard) 2 (Below Average) I (Poor). 139 Table A-15 (coXndaUd) b. Nos : No Mastr Plan Plan : Maser Plan planning in progress In. : Maser Plan initiated and review completed Compl.: Master Plan completed. c. Preent financing (even without master plan). Finnocial data for the CILSS region is data actual for 1990 taken from the Sahel Framework for Action (FPA), December 1991. 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Libreria del Este Golden Wheel Budding Aptdo. 607 41, Kalang Pudding, #04-M Caracas 1060-A Singapore 1334 MAP SECTION 彎 IBRD 22922R3 一 FEBRUARY 1995 \ RECENT WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPERS (continued) No. 168 Barlow, McNelis, and Derrick, Solar Pumping: An Introduction and Update on the Technology, Performance, Costs and Economics No. 169 Westoff, Age at Marriage, Age at First Birth, and Fertility in Africa No. 170 Sung and Troia, Developments in Debt Conversion Programs and Conversion Activities No. 171 Brown and Nooter, Successful Small-Scale Irrigation in the Sahel No. 172 Thomas and Shaw, Issues in the Development of Multigrade Schools No. 173 Byrnes, Water Users Association in World Bank-Assisted Irrigation Projects in Pakistan No. 174 Constant and Sheldrick, World Nitrogen Survey No. 175 Le Moigne and others, editors, Country Experiences with Water Resources Management: Economic, Institutional, Technological and Environmental Issues No. 176 The World Bank/FAO/UNIDO/Industry Fertilizer Working Group, World and Regional Supply and Demand Balances for Nitrogen, Phosphate, and Potash, 1990/91-1996/97 No. 177 Adams, The World Bank's Treatment of Employment and Labor Market Issues No. 178 Le Moigne, Barghouti, and Garbus, editors, Developing and Improving Irrigation and Drainage Systems: Selected Papers from World Bank Seminars No. 179 Speirs and Olsen, Indigenous Integrated Farming Systems in the Sahel No. 180 Barghouti, Garbus, and Umali, editors, Trends in Agricultural Diversification: Regional Perspectives No. 181 Mining Unit, Industry and Energy Division, Strategy for African Mining No. 182 Land Resources Unit, Asia Technical Department, Strategy for Forest Sector Development in Asia No. 183 NAjera, Liese, and Hammer, Malaria: New Patterns and Perspectives No. 184 Crosson and Anderson, Resources and Global Food Prospects: Supply and Demand for Cereals to 2030 No. 185 Frederiksen, Drought Planning and Water Efficiency Implications in Water Resources Management No. 186 Guislain, Divestiture of State Enterprises: An Overview of the Legal Framework No. 187 Geyndt, Zhao, and Liu, From Barefoot Doctor to Village Doctor in Rural China No. 188 Silverman, Public Sector Decentralization: Economic Policy and Sector Investment Programs No. 189 Frederick, Balancing Water Demands with Supplies: The Role of Management in a World of Increasing Scarcity No. 190 Macklin, Agricultural Extension in India No. 191 Frederiksen, Water Resources Institutions: Some Principles and Practices No. 192 McMillan, Painter, and Scudder, Settlement and Development in the River Blindness Control Zone No. 193 Braatz, Conserving Biological Diversity: A Strategy for Protected Areas in the Asia-Pacific Region No. 194 Saint, Universities in Africa: Strategies for Stabilization and Revitalization No. 195 Ochs and Bishay, Drainage Guidelines No. 196 Mabogunje, Perspective on Urban Land and Land Management Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa No. 197 Zymelman, Assessing Engineering Education in Sub-Saharan Africa No. 198 Teerink and Nakashima, Water Allocation, Rights, and Pricing: Examples from Japan and the United States No. 199 Hussi, Murphy, Lindberg, and Brenneman, The Development of Cooperatives and Other Rural Organizations: The Role of the World Bank No. 200 McMillan, Nana, and Savadogo, Settlement and Development in the River Blindness Control Zone: Case Study Burkina Faso No. 201 Van Tuijl, Improving Water Use in Agriculture: Experiences in the Middle East and North Africa No. 202 Vergara, The Materials Revolution: What Does It Mean for Developing Asia? 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