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Morch 2021
Monitoring COVI D-19 lmpBcts on
Households in Vietn8m
Rounds 3 and 4 data snapshot
INTRODU CTI ON
To monitor the social and economic effects on households during the COVID-19 pandemic, the
World Banh. is conducting High-Frequency Phone Surveys of Households in Vietnam. These
monitoring data help generate insights on household well-being amidst this dynamic period , and
highlight the effects on the most vulnerable members of Vietnamese society.
The third round of the of the World Banh. COVID-19 household monitoring survey in Vietnam was
conducted in September 2020, shortly following the emergence of the Danang outbreak The
fourth round in Vietnam was conducted in the first weeks of 2021, before the outbreak in Hai
Duong that led to loch.downs and travel restrictions scattered across the country Thus, timing of
data collection will affect results on perceptions and income changes in January . This snapshot
offers a summary of trends for selected indicators from Round 3 (R3) and Round 4 (R4) New
questions were added in Round 4 on digital behavior, vaccines, and impacts on future plans.
HIGHLIGHTS - ROUNDS 3 and 4
In 2021, households are still worried about the threat of COVID-19 to household finances
Perceptions on COVID-19 management is more positive than perceptions on relief response.
Household income in January 2021 is 11-22 percent lower than levels in June 2020 (based on high and low impact
estimates) .
Recovery in household income is uneven - incomes for households in the lowest quintile are still declining, while
stab ilizing in other quintiles .
46 percent of households reported lower income in January 2021 compared to the same time last year
Longer term impacts - households with lower incomes are deferring their plans such as making large purchases
or investments.
Digital acceleration - about 10 percent of respondents are new online shoppers, shopping for products online for
the first time after February 2020.
The vast majority of the population agree to be vaccinated for COVID-19 (under a no-cost option)
When asked to identify priority groups to receive the vaccine first, seniors and children were top choices,
followed by health care workers & medical professionals
@woRLD BANK GROUP Equitable Growth, Finance and lnst1tut1ons, Poverty & Equity Global Practice, East Asta & Pac1f1c Region
Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on NOTE NO. 3
Households in Vietnam March 2021
PERCE PTIONS IN 2021, HOUSEHOLDS ARE STILL WORRIED ABOUT THE THREAT OF COVID- 19 TO
HOUSEHOLD FINANCES.
--- Almost the same percentage of households considered COVID-19 to be a substantial threat to
household finances in January 2021 as in September 2020 (Figure 1) Households with a family
business have higher rates of feeling financially at-rish.. Fieldworh. in September followed the
Danang outbreak which may have led to heightened fears. Fieldworh. in January 2021 was
conducted before the large outbreah. in Hai Duong and other areas , but perceptions and concerns
of impacts could have been impacted by the previous occurrences of local transmission in
December 1, 2020.
Figure 1. How much of a threat would you say the coronavirus outbreak is to your household's finances?
60
50
40
■ Subst antia l th reat
■ A moderate th reat
30
■ Not m uch of a th reat
20 No t a threat at a ll
10
0
Septem ber 2020 Jan uary 2021
Source: World Bank Vietna m COV lD-19 household s urveys (R3, R4)
PERCEPTIONS ON COVID- 19 MANAGEMENT RESPONSE IS MORE POSITIVE THAN
PERCEPTIONS ON RELIEF RESPONSE
Virtually all households are satisfied with the government response on COVID-19 mBnBgement, but
to a lesser extent on the effectiveness of supporting households In the area of relief, questions
were posed on food affordability, support to those who lost employment, and the effectiveness of
relief programs. On the management side, questions were ash.ed about the perception of border
control, and responses to various outbreah.s. While there was near universal satisfaction with
government responses to managing outbreah.s and the border, there was less satisfaction that the
62 trillion relief program reached the poorest households (Figure 2). Results from earlier rounds of
the WB COVID-19 household surveys also noted that very few households received benefits from
newly proposed relief programs targeted to those that were negatively impacted by COVID-19
(Yang et al 2020; World Banh., 2020).
2
@woRLD BANK GROUP Equitable Growth, Finance and lnst1tut1ons, Poverty & Equity Global Practice, East Asta & Pac1f1c Region
Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on NOTE NO. 3
Households in Vietnam March 2021
~ Food is easily accessib le and affordab le
~
~ Eno ugh is being done to help t hose who have lost t heir jo bs or
o had to close their business
>
0
u The 62 tr illion program re ached the most in need
~
C
Q) April lockdownwas a corre ct length
E
Q)
OJ)
Cl
C Border control of immigrant s
Cl
E
~ Response to Danang outbre ak
0
>
0 Response du ring Marc h/ April crisis
u
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
%of respondents agree or are satisfi ed
Notes. For interpretation purposes. it is important to note t hat perceptions can change very quickly depending on t he t iming of the survey. and
sho uld be interpreted with caution. For example. fiel dwork for Round 3 occ urred du ring the entire mon th of September 2020 and the sha re of
respondents that did not feel comforta ble traveling interna lly ra nged fro m nearly 30 percent in week 1 nea r the Danang outb reak. to 10
percent by the end of the month.
Source: Wor ld Ban k Vietnam COV ID-19 ho usehold surveys (R3)
HOUSE HOLD HOUSEHOLD INCOM E IN JANUARY 20 21 IS ABOUT 11 -22 PERC ENT LOWER THAN LEVELS
IN COME IN JUN E 20 20 .
Nearly a year has passed since the onset of COVID-'19, and uneven distributional economic impacts
are emerging Most households are recovering, but not all at the same pace. Income recovery rates
are lower among households who were at the lower end of the income distribution pre-COVID.
women, and ethnic minorities. These results show that despite the remarkable resilience of the
Vietnamese economy and society, there are still challenges in equity towards full recovery. The
possibility of widening inequality is relevant An index of household income was created indexing
household income to '100 in June 2020, when the first round of the World Banh. household COVID-
'19 monitoring surveys was conducted By January 202'1, average household income was estimated
to be '1'1-22 percent lower than in June 2020 (Figure 3). The sharpest decline was recorded between
the first and second rounds of the monitoring surveys, and has since stabilized for most but not
all.
Figure 3. Household income in January 2021 is about 11 -22 percent lower than levels in June 2020
100
Q)
C
::,
--, Low impact
0" 90
g
X
Q)
-co
c - 80
·- 0
Q) 0J
ED High impact
0 0J
u 70
.<=:
72
0
_c
i,: 60
::,
0
:r
50
Jun/Jul 2020 Jul/A ug 2020 Sept ember 2020 Jan uary 2021
Notes Low and high estimat es are prov ided since exac t rates of income change is not recorded. on ly ranges (< 25%. 25-49%. 50-99%. and
0
100%). High- impact estimates ass ume t he highest percen t change in a record ed range. Low- im pact estimates assume t o lowest percen t
change in a range Assumptions are also made t hat income levels remained constan t between Septem ber 2020 and Jan uary 202 1.
Source: World Ban k Vietnam COV ID-19 househo ld surveys (R1, R2, R3 . R4)
3
@woRLD BANK GROUP Equitable Growth, Finance and lnst1tut1ons, Poverty & Equity Global Practice, East Asta & Pac1f1c Region
Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on NOTE NO. 3
Households in Vietnam March 2021
RECOVERY IN HOUSEHOLD INCOME IS UNEVEN - INCOMES FOR HOUSEHOLDS IN THE
LOWEST QUINTILE ARE STILL DECLINING. WHILE STABILIZING IN THE REST
Income recovery trends vary by household groups, in particular when comparing households based
on their pre-COVID income quintiles in 2018. Under high- and low-impact estimates, households
across the distribution followed similar rates of income decline through September 2020 . However,
households in Q2-Q5 enjoyed relative income stability between September 2020 and January 2021,
while income among households in the lowest quintile were more negatively affected during this
period By January 2021, average household income of the top quintile was about 1t4-2t6 percent
less than levels in June 2020. On the other hand, households in the lowest quintile experienced
continuous income reduction in each successive survey round, with income in January 2021
estimated to have declined between 14-25 percent since June 2020 .
Fi ure 4. Households with lower income before the onset of COVID-19 are ex eriencin a slower income recovery
High -impact estimate Low -impact estimate
100 100
0 0
0J 0J
0 0
0J 95 0J 95
Q) Q)
C C
:::, :::,
' " 90
0
'0" 90
g g
X X
Q) Q)
'D 85 'D 85
.!::: .!:::
Q) Q)
E
0
E
0
u 80 u 80
,; .!:::
'D 'D
0 0
.c .L
Q)
Cf> 75 i,: 75
:::, :::,
0 0
:r: :r:
70 70
Jun /Jul J ul/A ug September January Jun /J ul Jul /A ug September Jan uary
2020 2020 2020 2021 2020 202 0 2020 2021
- - - Lowest quint ile(Q1) - Q2 - Q3 - Q4 - Topquint ile(Q5)
Notes Field wor k was cond ucted over the fo llow ing periods: Ro und 1 J une 5 - July 8. 2020. Ro und 2 July 27 - Aug. 12. 2020. Ro und 3 Sept
9 - Oct 1. 2020. and Ro und 4 Jan uary 2-15.2021. Household qu int iles are based on househo ld consumpt ion per capita in 2018
Source World Ban k Vietnam COV lD-19 house ho ld surveys (R1. R2. R3 . R4)
46 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS STILL HAVE LOWER INCOME IN JANUARY 2021 THAN AT
THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR.
The cumulative incidence of income reduction since the beginning of the pandemic is larger since
the household income index is constructed beginning only in June 2020. When examining year on
year changes in household income, almost half report lower income in January 2021 compared to
January 2020 . The good news is that over time, the share of households suffering large yoy
declines in household income of 50-99 percent is shrinh.ing. About 24 percent of households
reported that incomes in July 2020 was 50-99 percent lower than at the same time a year ago
By January 2021, only 16 percent of households reported income levels were 50-99 percent lower
than the same time last year (Figure 6)
4
@woRLD BANK GROUP Equitable Growth, Finance and lnst1tut1ons, Poverty & Equity Global Practice, East Asta & Pac1f1c Region
Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on NOTE NO. 3
Households in Vietnam March 2021
Figure 5. Yoy Income changes show that nearly half of Figure 6. Among households with a yoy decline. the
households still have lower income in January 2021 average amount of income reduction has lessened
than the same time last ear
■ Increase Same Decrease ■ D/ K. ■ 1 >=100% ■ 2. 50 -99% ■3 25-49%
100%
90%
80%
- 100%
90%
4 < 25% Don 't K.now
80%
if> 70% {l 70%
32 0
0
ii
if>
60% i
::l
60%
::l
i 50% _g 50%
4-
0
l1' 40% l1' 40%
al
al .c
.c
Ul 30% Ul 30%
---
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
Jul/Aug 2020 Sept ember 2020 January 2021 Jul/A ug 2020 September Jan uary 202 1
2020
Notes. Dates shown are f ield work dates. Questions on income dynamics refer to changes fro m either the [the same t ime last year] or
[previous month] fro m the date of interview
Source: World Bank Vietnam COV ID- 19 househo ld surveys (R1. R2, R3, R4)
For most households. these declines in income were absorbed through various coping strategies
The most common coping strategy was the reduction of consumption. many also borrowed from
family /friends or did nothing at all. Very few households cited their coping strategies included
engaging in new income generation activities. Existing household savings and strong family support
networks may be helping households cushion the blow to their income sources. However. there is
uncertainty as to how much longer households will be able to manage with lower incomes.
EMPLOYMENT HOUSEHOLDS ARE ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE. BUT LABOR INCOMES ARE STILL DEPRESSED
ACTIVITIES
In the early months of the pandemic. over 40 percent of households in the bottom 40 percent of
the income distribution experienced employment loss (Figure 7) Wealthier households were more
likely to experience reductions in wages and salary rather than job joss. By the second half of 2020.
these negative employment impacts dissipated significantly. However. as seen from the earlier
section on household income trends. on average households have not yet fully recovered to pre-
COVI D income levels.
5
@woRLD BANK GROUP Equitable Growth. Finance and lnst1tut1ons. Poverty & Equity Global Practice. East Asta & Pac1f1c Region
Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on NOTE NO. 3
Households in Vietnam March 2021
Fi ure 7. Fewer households are ex eriencin em lo ment loss and wa e declines
Job loss Reduction in wages or salary
- Bottom Q1 - Q2 Q3 Q4 Top 20 - Bottom Q1 - Q2 Q3 Q4 Top20
80 -
70 -
] 60-
.Q
0
] 50-
'-'
C:
.*
c.
><
40-
"
~ 30-
"'
I
~ 20-
10 -
o-
Notes: Dat es shown a re reference periods. In t he firs t ro und, t he reference period for q uestions on employment loss and wage decl ines referenced [Since
February 2020]. thus t he reference period is shown as "Fe b - J une 2020" In subseq uent rounds, q uestions refer t o the [prev ious month] from t he
date of inte rview Househo ld q ui ntiles a re based on ho usehold cons ump tion per capita in 2018.
Source: Wo rld Bank Vie t nam COV ID-19 ho useho ld s ur veys (R1, R2. R3 . R4)
In the case of family businesses. economic impacts were more severe along the intensive margin
rather than the extensive margin (Figure 8). Family business closure rates remained low throughout
2020 . By the second half of the year, most family businesses were open. While most businesses
remained open, a larger proportion experienced reductions in family business income. Wealthier
households are more likely to have operations in family businesses. thus impacts along this economic
channel is more salient at higher ends of the distribution.
Fi ure 8. Reduced famil business income was more common than famil business closures
Business closure Reduction in family business income
- Bottom Q1 - Q2 Q3 Q4 Top 20 - Bottom Q1 - Q2 Q3 Q4 Top 20
80 - 80 -
"
E
8 70 -
~ 70 -
.!:
0
c; "'
"'
~ 60 - ii 60-
'in
"
'in .E
.,E 50 - 5§ 50 -
I
I
] 40 -
c:
-~
~ 30-
"
~ 20-
I"'
I
;;e 10-
0-
Notes: Dat es shown a re reference periods. In t he firs t ro und, t he reference period for q uestions on bus iness clos ure and fam ily bus iness income
referenced [Since Februa ry 2020], t hus t he reference period is shown as "Fe b - J une 2020". In s ub seq uen t rounds . questions refe r to the
[previous mon t h] from t he date of inte rview. Ho usehold q ui ntiles a re based on ho useho ld cons um pt ion per capita in 2018.
Source: Wo rld Bank Vie tnam COV ID-19 ho useho ld s ur veys (R1, R2, R3, R4)
6
@woRLD BANK GROUP Equitable Growth, Finance and lnst1tut1ons, Poverty & Equity Global Practice, East Asta & Pac1f1c Region
Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on NOTE NO. 3
Households in Vietnam March 2021
In 2020, agricultural production among households with family farms were also affected by
environmental hazards and crop disease, in addition to declines in the price of farming output
These negative impacts were more commonly occurring among households in the bottom 20
percent of the income distribution, who are the most active in agriculture (Figure 9).
Figure 9. Declines in income due to farming related factors were more common among
the poor
- Bottom 0 1 - 02 03 04 Top 20
80 -
70 -
E 50 -
_g
"'
] 40 -
"
E
0
_po-
I"'
~ 20 -
10 -
0-
Fel>-Jun 2020 Jun-J WJ~~2nc/~~~~9 202IDec 2020 - Jan 2021
Notes Da t es shown are reference periods. In the first ro und. the refere nce period fo r questions on fam ily farm income refere nced [Since
February 2020]. thus t he reference period is shown as "Feb - J une 2020' In s ubseq uent ro unds. q uestions refer t o the [prev ious month]
fro m t he date of interview . Househo ld quintiles are based on household cons umption per cap ita in 2018
Source: World Ban k Vietnam COV ID-19 ho useho ld surveys (R1, R2. R3 . R4)
LONGER TERM IMPACTS - HOUSEHOLDS WITH LOWER INCOMES ARE DEFERRING PLANS
FOR THE FUTURE
For households whose income in January 2021 was still lower than in the previous year, additional
questions were posed if income reductions affected any future plans. About 36 percent in this
group said their plans for the future are impacted in a negative way Adaptation measures include
delaying purchases of vehicles, land, apartments, or mah.ing investments in education and new
businesses (Figure 10) Affected households are found along the entire income distribution.
Fi ure 10. Households with lower incomes are dela in urchases and investments
100
tu 90
3
0 ~
-
.c "'
<l)
80
~
- >-. 70
3 ~
Cf>
E3iQ 60
C C
<V"' 50
'Cl .c
C ~
40
g_
• -
3
Cf>
<V
0
C
30
20
oE
~
C
<V
2 ·-
0
u
C
10
0 1111
<V
(l_ Purchase of Purchase of land/ Housing Ed ucation Other
moto rized vehciles house/ ap t construction/
re novat ion
Notes Share of respondents among the 4 6 percent of ho useho lds with lower income in Jan ua ry 2021 compared to Jan uary 2020
Source World Bank Vietnam COVID -1 9 ho usehold s urveys (R4)
7
@woRLD BANK GROUP Equitable Growth, Finance and lnst1tut1ons, Poverty & Equity Global Practice, East Asta & Pac1f1c Region
Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on NOTE NO. 3
Households in Vietnam March 2021
BE HAV IOR ABOUT 10 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS ARE NEW ONLINE SHOPPERS. SHOPPING FOR
-
PRODUCTS ONLINE FOR THE FIRST TIME AFTER FEBRUARY 2020
Behavioral changes and coping strategies adopted during the pandemic has been expected to
accelerate digitalization. It was less obvious that these patterns would occur in Vietnam where
loch.downs were shorter in duration and the movement of people remains largely unrestricted. with
the exceptions of instances of outbreah.s which were quich.ly controlled .
Yet, from the consumer side. there is a noticeable increase in online shopping behavior. Interestingly.
new online shoppers are found across most of the age distribution The direction of these trends
is in line with the increase in digital technology adoption found in the World Banh. Vietnam COVID-
19 firm surveys. as well as increasing volumes of sales through e-commerce platforms (Tan and
Tran, 2020). E-commerce sales grew 18 percent in 2020 (Vietnam e-Commerce and Digital
Economy Agency) .
Figure 11. About 10 percent of respondents are new online shoppers. s hopping for product online for the first time
alter Fe bruar 20 20
100%
90%
80%
~
70%
El
C:
<lJ
u 60%
C:
0
Q_
u, 50%
c1'
~
0 40%
c1'
Cll
_c 30%
(f)
20%
10%
0%
18 - 24 25- 34 35 -4 4 4 5- 54 55- 64 65-74 75+
■ Online Shopper New on line shopper Does not shop online
Notes. T he increase in on line shopping perta ins to t he purc hasing of prod ucts and goods rather th an f or services
Source World Bank Vietnam COVl D- 19 ho use hold surveys (R4)
VACC IN ES SENIOR CITIZENS. CHILDREN. AND HEALTH CARE WORK.ERS ARE MOST COMMONLY
SELECTED TO BE PRIORITY GROUPS TO RECEIVE THE VACCINE FIRST
Respondents were ash.ed to identify priority groups that should receive the vaccine first Seniors
and children were top choices, followed by health care worh.ers & medical professionals. Almost
half of respondents identified senior citizens to be a vaccination priority group, unprompted. Older
respondents were more lih.ely to identify government worh.ers as priority groups Younger
respondents were more lih.ely to select children and pregnant women as priority groups.
8
@woRLD BANK GROUP Equitable Growth, Finance and lnst1tut1ons, Poverty & Equity Global Practice, East Asta & Pac1f1c Region
).
Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on NOTE NO. 3
Households in Vietnam March 2021
Box - Survey information:
This survey brief summarizes the results from the third and fourth round of the Vietnam
COVI D-19 High-Frequency Survey of Households. See the table below for field work and sample
size information
Fieldwork Information
Round Field work dates Final sample size Special notes
(households)
1 June 5 - July 8. 6,213 Round 1 was planned to
2020 be a larger sample than
the subsequent rounds.
2 J uly 27 - Aug. 12. 3,935
2020
3 Sept. 9 - Oct 1. 4 .560 This round included an
2020 expansion sample t o 2 nd
outbreak provinces
4 January 2-15. 3,948
2021
5 Planned for FINAL ROUND
March
The Vietnam household high frequency surveys are funded in part by the World Bank TFSCB
and Australian DFAT trust funds
Microdata for the Vietnam High-Frequency Survey of Households and accompanying survey
materials are accessible to registered users on the World Bank Microdata Library. Additional
information, complementary results from the World Bank Business Pulse Surveys, and
additional analysis can be found at
https //www.world ba nkorg/ en/ country /vietnam /brief /monitoring-ho use holds-and- firms-
in-vietnam -during-covid-19
11
@woRLD BANK GROUP Equitable Growth, Finance and lnst1tut1ons, Poverty & Equity Global Practice, East Asta & Pac1f1c Region
Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on NOTE NO. 3
Households in Vietnam March 2021
REFERENCES Tan, Shawn Weiming: Tran, Trang. 2020. impBcts of COV/0-19 on Firms in VietnBm - Results from
the Second Round of COV/0-19 Business Pulse Survey (English). impBcts of COV/0-19 on Firms in
VietnBm, report no.2 Washington, D.C. • World Bank Group.
World Bank 2020 Monitoring COV/0-19 impBcts on Households in VietnBm .· Round 2 Results
SnBpshot (English). Washington, D.C. World Bank Group.
Yang, Judy, Philomena Panagoulias, Giorgia Demarchi 2020 Monitoring COV/0-19 impBcts on
Households in VietnBm .· Round 1 Results SnBpshot (English). Washington, DC World Bank Group
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This note was prepared by Judy Yang (Senior Economist, Poverty & Equity). The team receives
guidance and is under the supervision of Rinku Murgai (Practice Manager, Poverty & Equity Global
Practice, East Asia region). Field work was conducted by the Mekong Development Research
Institute.
12
@woRLD BANK GROUP Equitable Growth, Finance and lnst1tut1ons, Poverty & Equity Global Practice, East Asta & Pac1f1c Region