Jose F. Monserrat Adam Diehl Carlos Bellas Lamas Sara Sultan ENVISIONING 5G Enabled Transport JUNE 2020  I © 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. 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Monserrat Adam Diehl Carlos Bellas Lamas Sara Sultan ENVISIONING 5 G Enabled Transport JUNE 2020 Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS / 04 ACRONYMS / 05 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY / 06 01 INTRODUCTION / 12 06 IMPACTS OF 5G-ENABLED TRANSPORT / 52 Economic Growth and Poverty / 53 02 RELEVANT FEATURES OF 5G FOR TRANSPORT / 16 Road Safety / 54 Energy Use / 55 03 TRANSLATING 5G INTO THE Employment / 59 TRANSPORT SECTOR / 22 Vehicle-to-everything Communications / 24 Smart Connectivity / 30 07 COSTS AND POTENTIAL REVENUE FOR 5G-ENABLED TRANSPORT / 64 Real-time monitoring of passengers and freight/ 31 08 CHALLENGES AND LESSONS LEARNED / 72 04 THE 5G-ENABLED TRANSPORT SECTOR / 34 Challenges / 73 Lessons Learned / 76 The Trend Towards Connected and Autonomous Vehicles / 37 Smart and Efficient Logistics / 39 09 POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES / 78 Evolving Urban Mobility and Public Applicability to the Sustainable Transport / 42 Development Goals / 82 Policy Implications / 83 05 5G ADOPTION, STANDARDIZATION, AND TIMELINES / 48 Figures, Tables and Boxes FIGURE E.1. Key Impact Linkages between 5G and the Transport Sector............................................................................................7 FIGURE E.2. Impact of CAVs on Energy Use: Optimistic and Pessimistic Estimations........................................................................... 9 FIGURE 2.1. Relevance of 5G Features for Transport..................................................................................................................... 17 FIGURE 2.2. Example of Network Slicing to Support Various Industries........................................................................................... 19 FIGURE 3.1. Linkages between 5G Features, Transforming Opportunities and New Transport Applications........................................... 24 FIGURE 3.2. 5G Features Applicable to V2X................................................................................................................................. 25 FIGURE 3.3. Day 1 V2X Services..................................................................................................................................................26 FIGURE 3.4. Day 2 V2X Services................................................................................................................................................. 27 FIGURE 3.5. Day 3 V2X Services in the 5G Era............................................................................................................................... 28 FIGURE 3.6. SAE Levels of Driving Automation ............................................................................................................................29 FIGURE 3.7. 5G Features Applicable to Smart Connectivity............................................................................................................30 FIGURE 3.8. 5G Features Applicable to Real-Time Monitoring of Passengers and Freight.................................................................... 31 FIGURE 4.1. The Four Technological Innovations in the CAV Paradigm............................................................................................. 37 FIGURE 4.2. European 5G Cross-Border Corridors ........................................................................................................................ 38 FIGURE 5.1. Spectrum Allocation to Date....................................................................................................................................50 FIGURE 6.1. Connected Automated Vehicles and Improved Road Safety.......................................................................................... 55 FIGURE 6.2. Spectrum of Electric Vehicle Technologies................................................................................................................. 57 FIGURE 6.3. Projection of Vehicle Sales Volume ........................................................................................................................... 57 FIGURE 6.4. Energy Consumption Reduction Expected in the Most Optimistic and Most Conservative Estimation, Relative to 2020.........59 FIGURE 7.1. Segment Selected for the Deployment Analysis..........................................................................................................68 FIGURE 7.2. Examples of RSUs Deployed in the United States ........................................................................................................68 FIGURE 7.3. Accumulated Costs and Revenues without Cellular Support for Day 1 to Day 3 Services....................................................69 FIGURE 7.4. Accumulated Costs and Revenues with 50 percent of Cellular Support for Day 1 to Day 3 Services.....................................69 FIGURE 7.5. Accumulated Costs and Revenues with 50 Percent of Cellular Support and 50 Percent Cost Sharing for Day 1 to Day 3 Services.......................................................................................................................................69 TABLE 3.1. V2X Subcategories................................................................................................................................................. 22 TABLE 4.1. Selected 5G-Enabled Transport Pilots....................................................................................................................... 36 TABLE 6.1. New Skills Demand and New Jobs Opportunities Created Because of Automation in the Transport Sector ........................ 60 TABLE 6.2. Declining Skills and Jobs That Will Become Redundant Due to Automation in the Transport Sector.................................... 61 TABLE 7.1. Data Rate Requirement for Each C-ITS Deployment Phase............................................................................................66 TABLE 7.2. Radio Channel Propagation Modeling for Each Type of Road Considered........................................................................66 TABLE 7.3. Additional Assumptions for RSU and OBU..................................................................................................................67 TABLE 7.4. Maximum Inter-RSU Distance for Each Type of Road and ITS Deployment Phase..............................................................67 TABLE 7.5. Number of Vehicles per Day in the Machakos Turnoff-JKIA Stretch................................................................................67 TABLE 7.6. Number of RSU as a Function of Service Type.............................................................................................................67 BOX 4.1. Benefits of Incorporating 3PL Players into Transport Logistics ...................................................................................... 36 BOX 4.2. Japan Puts Truck Platooning to the Test................................................................................................................... 40 BOX 6.1. 5G and the Potential Energy Savings of Platooning and Vehicle Sharing..........................................................................56 BOX 9.1. How 5G Applies to the SDGs.................................................................................................................................... 82 BOX 9.2. The First Obstacle: Spectrum Allocation.................................................................................................................... 85 BOX 9.3. 5G and Public–Private Collaboration in Developing Countries.......................................................................................86 Acknowledgments This report has been prepared by a World Bank Group team, led by Adam Diehl, urban transport specialist, consisting of Sara Sultan, senior knowledge management officer, and Carlos Bellas Lamas, young professional. A team at Universitat Politècnica de València, led by Professor Jose F. Monserrat, pro- vided major contributions with research, analysis, and writing contributions from David García, David Martín-Sacristán, Saúl Inca, and Faîza Bouchmal. This paper was prepared as a sectoral input into a wider World Bank flagship report on the impacts of 5G. The team acknowledges the excellent guidance and support received from the flagship lead, Je Myung Ryu, and the team, including Maria Claudia Pachon, and Hyea Won Lee, along with many others. The team would also like to thank the World Bank peer reviewers, Tatiana Peralta, Rebekka Bellman, Winnie Wang, and Raman Krishnan, for their very valuable insights. In addition, the paper received invaluable guidance from external reviewers, including Andreas Kwoczek (Volkswagen AG), Frank Hofmann (Advanced Engineering Connected Mobility Systems, Robert Bosch GmbH), Roberto Fantini (Telecom Italia), and Alessandra Balletti (INWIT). The report team gratefully acknowledges the excellent guidance and support received from World Bank colleagues, including: Makhtar Diop, Guangzhe Chen, Franz Drees-Gross, Vivien Foster, Cecilia Briceno-Garmendia, Martha Lawrence, Antoine Kunth, Victor Aragones, Helena Goetsch, Luis Blancas, Georges Darido, Arturo Ardila Gomez, Karla Domínguez González, Nicolas de Leon de Maria, Desta Wolde Woldeargey, Emiye Deneke, and Tatiana Daza among many others. 04 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport Acronyms 3GPP Third Generation Partnership Project IDB Inter-American Development Bank 3PL third-party logistics IEA International Energy Agency 5G fifth-generation mobile standard IoT Internet of Things 5GAA 5G Automotive Association ITS intelligent transport systems 5G-PPP 5G Public-Private Partnership LNG liquefied natural gas ACC adaptive cruise control LTE long-term evolution ADAS advanced driver assistance systems MaaS Mobility as a Service AI artificial intelligence mMTC massive machine-type communications AR augmented reality NR 5G new radio AV autonomous vehicle NRA National Regulatory Agency BAHV battery-assisted hybrid vehicle Organisation for Economic Co-operation and OECD Development BEV battery electric vehicle OEM original equipment manufacturer CACC cooperative adaptive cruise control PHEV plug-in hybrid electric vehicle CAD connected and automated driving PPP public-private partnership CAV connected and autonomous vehicle PTC positive train control cellular-based vehicle-to-everything C-V2X communications RSU roadside unit C-ITS cooperative intelligent transport systems SAE Society of Automobile Engineers International CNG compressed natural gas SDG Sustainable Development Goal DSRC dedicated short-range communications TaaS Transport as a Service eMBB enhanced mobile broadband uRLLC ultra-reliable low-latency communications EU European Union V2D vehicle-to-device communications EV electric vehicle V2I vehicle-to-infrastructure communications FCEV fuel-cell electric vehicle V2N vehicle-to-network communications GDP gross domestic product V2P vehicle-to-pedestrian communications GLOSA green light optimal speed advisory V2V vehicle-to-vehicle communications GPRS general packet radio service V2X vehicle-to-everything communications HEV hybrid electric vehicle VRU vulnerable road user ICE internal combustion engine WAVE wireless access in vehicular environments ICT information and communications technology Acronyms 05 Executive Summary The transport industry has entered a period of rapid advancement, and the pace of change is only increasing. The proliferation of electric vehicles, rapid advances in autonomous vehicles, the advent of the sharing economy and digital platforms, advances in big data and machine learning, and rapidly evolving business models, such as eCommerce and Mobility as a Service (MaaS), are causing profound changes throughout the sector. The development and rollout of fifth-generation (5G) mobile broadband has the potential to not only support, but accelerate these revolutionary changes as today’s digital transport solutions evolve and entirely new opportunities become viable. 5G presents a variety of benefits over previous generations of and (3) improved data availability for transport operations and wireless connectivity, including greater bandwidth, lower latency, management. capacity to dedicate resources for critical functions, potential for greatly expanded numbers of devices, and easy sharing of data. In When applying these new technologies to transport, changes can some cases, we see dramatic and exponential gains from previous be expected across the sector, with—to some extent—no corner technologies. Each of these 5G features will have an impact in the left untouched. While impossible to foresee all potential applica- transport sector, contributing to transport-specific applications. tions, the study predicts three likely and significant changes: (1) the Of these, three key opportunities present themselves: (1) revolu- rise of connected and autonomous vehicles, (2) increasingly smart tionary advancements in the potential connectivity of vehicles, and efficient logistics, and (3) improved urban transportation with (2) an increase in the number and ubiquity of connected devices, the implementation of MaaS platforms. Figure E.1 highlights some of these key impact linkages between 5G and the transport sector. 06 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport FIGURE E.1. Key Impact Linkages between 5G and the Transport Sector TRANSPORT 5G FEATUR ES USE CASES TECHNOLOGIES Vehicle-to-everything Connected and Expanded bandwidth communications autonomous (V2X) vehicles Low latency Greatly expanded Smart and number of Smart Connectivity e cient logistics connected devices Network slicing Real-time monitoring Improved urban Easy sharing of passengers and mobility and public of data freight transport Executive Summary 07 Envisioning 5G-enabled transport 5G-enabled vehicles will differ from those in use today, with busi- platforms, will allow users to choose among dozens of trip op- ness models in the transport sector expected to differ significantly tions. Additionally, users will enjoy better onboard entertainment from the current paradigm. Connected and autonomous vehicles and information display, as well as an enhanced feeling of onboard (CAVs) will bring together a series of changes impacting the sector, safety thanks to improved onboard video connectivity to the control including connectivity, electrification, autonomy, and new business center and police, which reduces response time in case of violent models such as MaaS. While the connectivity provided by 5G rep- assault or sexual harassment within the public transport network. resents only one enabling facet of this equation, it fundamentally changes the overall potential scope and viability of the model. Regarding active transport, 5G-enabled smart connectivity and ve- hicle-to-everything (V2X) communications will improve cyclist and In the logistics sector, 5G technology opens up three fundamen- pedestrian safety, who will also benefit from the safer automobiles. tal dimensions for increasing efficiency: (1) enabling the operation City and national governments might promote infrastructure shar- of autonomous vehicles, by land, by sea, or by air; (2) simplifying ing for providing telecom services and other services for mobility, many communications and signaling processes, and dramatically such as using traffic lights or streetlights for deploying the 5G ul- reducing the cost of connected devices; and (3) increasing bat- tra-dense networks and create intelligent transportation system tery life, potentially up to 10 years. Taken together, these impacts (ITS)-related services, thus boosting jobs in the digital economy. massively increase the potential for connected freight, and thus the 5G could empower well-regulated systems that give preference to ability to track goods throughout the logistics chain and stream- active modes and public transport over private cars. In total, if con- line logistics planning. They will empower increasingly autonomous nected and autonomous cars can streamline traffic, and transport shipping—initially through truck platooning—but eventually in demand management is paired with improved public transport, 5G all transport modes. And finally, they will facilitate the manage- has the potential to open significant areas of urban space for people ment of the logistics sector, improving port operations, facilitating instead of cars. third-party logistics (3PL) players, improving rail safety, enhancing the monitoring of infrastructure, and boosting overall efficiency. In cities, the availability of 5G poses a revolutionary opportunity for urban mobility, allowing cities to modernize and make their trans- port systems more efficient. With access to 5G, cities will have an increased ability to improve public transport operations and plan- ning, even introducing dynamic transport planning, and potentially reduce traffic congestion or reallocate space for cyclists and pedes- trians. They also may generate more revenues by increasing public transport ridership or through a best use of developing business models such a MaaS. In turn, this could potentially help reduce tariffs and increase affordability for low-income users, who would benefit from improved monitoring and control systems for smart cards through reduced fraud and the ability of public transport agencies to better target the subsidies for public transport users in vulnerable situations. Better smart-card monitoring and control systems could also facilitate better transport planning through an enhanced understanding of the mobility patterns of various pop- ulation groups. 5G can improve the efficiency of urban public transport operations. Technology-based real time monitoring of public transport vehi- cles and real-time user demand management would allow better matching between supply and demand, creating near real-time Origin–Destination (OD) matrix proxies to make transport oper- ators more efficient by avoiding the operation of either empty or overloaded vehicles, which would enhance the quality of service for users. Moreover, increased multimodal connectivity among transport modes integrating all mobility options into single MaaS 08 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport Impacts of 5G As 5G rolls out more widely, all evidence indicates it will have a Reducing the energy demand of the transport sector will be fun- dramatic impact on the global economy, with an estimated con- damental in moving to a sustainable and carbon-neutral economy. tribution to global gross domestic product (GDP) of US$700 billion 5G-enabled connectivity is expected to drive energy use down in a by 2030, with nearly one-third coming from transport sector im- number of ways. The ability to synchronize speeds and shift to truck pacts. And these impacts within the sector will likely go far beyond platooning will reduce air resistance, potentially reducing fuel use simply boosting economic growth, offering additional potential by 7 to 16 percent. Smart infrastructure and 5G connectivity have benefits in terms of safety, energy use, climate change mitigation, the potential to improve the operation of dynamically controlled and employment. intersections, thus streamlining the flow of traffic and reducing de- lays—potentially reducing the energy demand by 13 to 44 percent. Every year the lives of approximately 1.35 million people are cut By empowering smoother acceleration, coordinated breaking, and short as a result of a road traffic collisions, with an additional 20 other optimized driving patterns, 5G connectivity could reduce en- to 50 million suffering non-fatal injuries. As the vast majority of ergy demand by 10 to 20 percent. Finally, eliminating the need to these crashes (up to 94 percent) can be at least partially attribut- search for parking spaces could drop energy use by an additional 5 ed to human error, the potential for connected and autonomous percent. All told, full connectivity could reduce energy demand by vehicles to save lives is immense. However, in order to truly make between 30 and 70 percent. the world’s roads safe for all users, more work is needed. Several high-profile collisions involving the current generation of auton- The study recognizes, however, that increased connectivity will not omous vehicles shines a light on the continuing problem. The represent the only difference between the cars of today and those introduction of 5G-enabled communications will help address we will be driving in 20 or 30 years. The impacts of electrification, these challenges, allowing tomorrow’s vehicles to see beyond automation, and new sharing business models will either reinforce their own field of view, make cooperative driving decisions, and the gains from increased connectivity, or erode them entirely, de- process information from an increasingly rich set of sources. pending on how the policy environment and demand for transport evolve. Figure E.2 shows the optimistic and pessimistic estimations for the possible impact of CAVs on energy use. FIGURE E.2. Impact of CAVs on Energy Use: Optimistic and Pessimistic Estimations 120% 100% Energy use compared to 2020 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2020 2025 2027 2030 2050 Re ecting impact of: Electri cation 30–75% reduction Autonomous driving 10–55% increase Connected vehicles 30–75% reduction Shared vehicles 38% reduction– 35% increase Executive Summary 09 In other sectors, increased connectivity and automation place many marginal investments. An initial study indicates the potential reve- jobs at risk, while at the same time creating others. In the transport nue generated by connected vehicles along a major corridor could sector this will be no different. Many of today’s jobs in the sector pay back the cost of 5G deployment in as little as three to four years. will face elimination, as vehicles increasingly drive themselves, Ongoing work will analyze the potential use of telecom infrastruc- warehouses become more efficient and automated, and simpli- ture deployment by city governments or transport agencies, such fied mechanical designs reduce the need for mechanics. That said, as metros, to provide high speed data connections within the city it is likely that at least as many new jobs will be created, such as and improve commuting. data analysis, software developers, process automation specialists, eCommerce specialists, and customer service specialists. How and While the rollout of new technologies will be largely market driven, where these new jobs are created—and whether those impacted how these technologies impact the transport sector will depend in are ready to move into new roles—will be an important challenge a large part on how governments, private players, and users react to to address. This will be particularly true in developing countries, their introduction. Key concerns include a recognition that increas- where the heavy reliance on informal labor puts many workers at ingly autonomous vehicles will have an impact on the relative value risk, specifically women, who represent the majority in the informal of public transport, shifting the sector’s employment from drivers economy. Because fewer women than men participate in careers and manual labor toward more technology jobs, creating an un- related to science, technology, engineering, and mathematics certain impact on energy use and climate change, and potentially (STEM), they might not immediately benefit from the potential op- driving an even deeper wedge into the digital divide. portunities offered by jobs created as a result of required increased In addition, a number of technical and legal questions remain that connectivity. must be settled before 5G can be fully adopted into transport sys- Importantly, the benefits between 5G and the transport sector will tems—questions surrounding the safety and allocation of legal not flow in one direction only, as mobility driven connectivity de- responsibilities of autonomous vehicles, continuing disagreements mand will provide an important revenue stream for expanded 5G on technical standards and network ownership, cybersecurity risks coverage, potentially driving down the cost of connectivity for other and international geo-political disputes concerning technologies, purposes and providing economic and financial return on otherwise and the overall costs. 10 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport What does this mean for developing countries? While the rollout of 5G is happening first in developed countries, On the telecom side, 5G applications in transport raise new questions a few pilot efforts are underway in the developing world with the of network ownership and may drive a change in existing network first developing countries expected to rollout 5G coverage in 2021. infrastructure development models and oversight. Infrastructure In many developing countries 5G will likely be implemented initially sharing, meaning the joint development of network infrastructure in urban centers and along key road corridors, thus facilitating its to benefit multiple sectors, is already an important consideration, impact on transport. This may be underscored by a mutually rein- and the development of fiber optic cables along transport and en- forcing aspect between 5G and transport, as transport sector use ergy corridors has shown clear cost savings for telecommunication cases may drive the development of 5G networks where they are sector development, while enabling deployment of digital transport otherwise only marginally financially justified. Nevertheless, many solutions. Such joint projects will only become more important, and technologies leveraging 5G for the transport sector will require the policy environment governing their development more com- extensive geographic 5G coverage. As such, only a few low- and plicated, as connectivity moves more thoroughly into transport middle-income countries may benefit in the short term, such as considerations. Because global allocation of a dedicated spectrum China and select countries in Southeastern Asia, Eastern Europe for ITS applications within the same 5.9 GHz band will dramatical- or Latin America. ly facilitate global development of 5G-enabled transportation, the broadband spectrum itself will need to be carefully considered for How, and whether, developing countries prepare themselves for transport applications. The intersection of these sectors will bring this oncoming reality will have a significant impact on how it affects non-traditional market players into the telecom sector and incen- their transport sector. The digital divide is real, and without signifi- tivize the use of public-private partnerships (PPPs) for network cant intervention, the highest quality of network coverage will likely ownership and operation. not reach the most remote corners of the globe for the foresee- able future. In some cases, ensuring universal coverage will require The rise of connected and autonomous vehicles presents import- public sector involvement. In others, a targeted, impact-driven ant opportunities for reducing energy use, releasing road space prioritization—such as implementing 5G along key corridors and for public-use purposes, improving safety, and reducing the time within urban centers—could help capture the majority of coverage people spend commuting. Digitalization of public transport could benefits. Simply copying the solutions from developed countries or ensure an improved commuting time with better entertainment op- allowing markets to develop naturally might not be enough to ad- portunities for users, and improved planning tools for authorities, dress the digital divide. Indeed, even where such rollout is possible, operators, and users by using real-time mobile and vehicle data, the long lifespan of vehicles (and the tendency for older vehicles as well as collaboration with private MaaS operators. In logistics, to stay on the roads longer in developing countries) suggests that advancements in tracking and tracing, truck platooning, improved reaching a critical mass of connected vehicles in developing coun- rail and port operations, streamlined last mile delivery, and more, tries is potentially decades away. could dramatically improve the efficiency of freight. The lag in deploying connected vehicles only highlights the op- Finally, regarding transport, the coming transformations will in- portunity for developing countries to drive forward in other ways. crease the challenges on policy makers while empowering them 5G-enabled handset-based solutions will likely reach developing with new tools and leverage. Despite a predicted dramatic im- countries in the near term, providing transport users with enhanced provement in road safety, autonomous vehicles present complex information via improved passenger information systems, commu- questions of liability and risk. In cities, the digitalization of public nication of road hazards, real-time emergency information and transport and the inclusion of private MaaS operators will require similar applications, and assisting transport operators and author- innovation-friendly governance with flexible approaches toward ities with enhanced data for real-time decision making and traffic new mobility modes and the use of big data to improve manage- control. Other applications will require only limited network cover- ment and planning. Regarding the use of limited public space in age in urban centers, along rail lines, or in ports. cities, if the regulatory environment does not catch up to new re- alities, autonomous vehicles will create new incentives for empty How these applications develop, whether they reach the poorest miles and wasted energy, with impacts on curb use, parking, e-toll- countries and regions in the short or medium term, and whether they ing, congestion charging, and more. Lastly, as vehicles frequently have an ambiguous or definitively positive impact in the transport cross borders, deploying 5G-connected international corridors sector, will be driven by how the policy environment evolves, both will require regional collaboration and integration, potentially within these countries and globally. The deployment of 5G-enabled creating digital corridors or ITS observatories inside the regional transport will be guided by two sets of policies, those governing the organizations. telecommunications sector, and those within transport. Executive Summary 11 01 INTRODUCTION 12 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport As growing and evolving demand resonates with rapidly advancing technology, the transportation sector is undergoing a series of profound changes. At least five major innovations are revolutionizing the sector: (1) the advent of the sharing-economy and sharing platforms in transport and mobility; (2) the rapid improvement of electric batteries and the development of other alternative fuels for motor vehicles; (3) the advances in machine-learning techniques associated with big data that enable unprecedented real- time information processing; (4) the surge in eCommerce and express door-to-door delivery of goods and services; and (5) the advances in autonomous vehicles (AVs). The rapid changes happening within the transport sector are only the movement of goods and freight management. Although the full accelerating—the transport industry will likely evolve more in the impact of 5G on transport is impossible to predict, three major use next ten years than it has in the previous fifty. The hype for AVs is cases can already be identified: (1) the realization of the promise of ushering in the new era for mobility and new business models such AVs, (2) the increasing efficiency of logistics, and (3) a revolution as Mobility as a Service (MaaS) and Transport as a Service (TaaS).1 In in urban mobility driven by smart cities and connected transport. order to shift transport to a more sustainable trajectory, the number of vehicles on the world’s streets must drop; the growing wireless In addition, the potential positive impacts between transport and connectivity provides an opportunity: to improve public transport, 5G deployment may run in both directions. Initial indications show advance its efficiency and comfort, and secure it as a mobility mode 5G will have a significant benefit for transport, with the potential of choice. Still, significant advances are required to reach the full AV return on investment in certain specific deployments under four vision, explicitly in the underlying technology—artificial intelligence years, thus facilitating the wide adoption of 5G technologies. In (AI), sensors, communications—and in the enabling environment fact, if leveraged systematically, transport could be the sector that where it will be implemented. removes the barrier currently limiting the deployment of wireless broadband technologies in developing countries. The roll out of fifth-generation (5G) mobile standards will only accelerate this pace of change, creating an opportunity to push The already realized advances in information and communications current advances forward and revolutionize others. Indeed, if any technology (ICT) open a set of opportunities for improving mobil- sector best exemplifies the benefit of 5G for the development of ity and transport; more changes are expected with the advent of new vertical applications, it is transport. The implementation of 5G. Whether these changes are positive or negative will depend on 5G implies a radical change in the transport experience of today, policies, regulations, and a host of other factors. Safe, sustainable, not only from the point of view of transporting people, but also of efficient, and affordable solutions can be developed—especially in Introduction 13 emerging countries—if we manage to make financially feasible and Incorporating these lessons from the roll out of 4G services into well-regulated solutions that allow for leapfrogging and handling of 5G applications could drive clear benefits. The financial and eco- any potential repercussions. nomic return on digital transport solutions is evidenced by looking at the market value of companies built on them. However, the key Transport has certainly been wirelessly connected for many years. questions involve understanding how much society as a whole is Trucks can be tracked using General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) gaining from the current innovations in mobility, and how much so- transmitters, trains and ships connected via satellite, and pack- ciety could benefit if innovation-tolerant institutions were ready to ages tracked via mobile apps and readers. Even when discussing include technology as applied to mobility—especially considering direct communication between vehicles, some technologies are al- the rapid advancement likely to come with 5G. The public sector ready available. Hundreds of private companies around the world must ask the following questions: have already benefited from advances in ICT, with many transport innovators emerging in the transport sector, such as ride hailing, ► How 5G can be used to generate positive externalities? eCommerce, peer-driver information sharing or electric mobility, ► How 5G-related innovations can promote public transit, road among other examples. safety, and clean energy sources instead of increasing con- gestion and reducing space for people in cities? However, in many emerging economies such advances made ► How 5G can improve the equality of opportunities for their with the advent of fourth generation (4G) technologies and the citizens, such as enhancing security and mobility for women, emergence of smartphones, have yet to generate consistent im- reducing barriers for people with disabilities, and meeting provements in the user experience. While the lack of uptake is the particular needs of low-income users or those in situa- driven by many factors, one key issue is that many cities and coun- tions of vulnerability? tries have rigid policy and regulatory arrangements in the transport and mobility sectors, which create challenges for entrepreneurs in The public sector must be willing and able to regulate, bringing launching new services and for the public sector to leverage this benefits from innovation related to 5G to these areas that could wave of innovation. Consequently, many advances only benefit pri- have the greatest social impact, while also limiting negative reper- vate mobility, as public transport operators and regulators adapt cussions. Indeed, evidence from previous innovations shows that slowly to new innovations and frequently default to banning new gains in technological advancement will be focused on specific mobility options rather than accepting and effectively regulating individuals without proper regulation, ignoring the types of social newcomers. To ensure that new mobility also benefits lower-income gains which might benefit societies more broadly. The impacts of users, innovation solutions for mobility must be better regulated, previous digital evolutions have been much greater for individu- with public sector players negotiating with new players to identify al motorized transport than for collective transport or in active win-win transport options for users. modes; only collaboration and regulation from public sector can manage the 5G evolution successfully. 14 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport Purpose of the report Undoubtedly, addressing the full impact of digital technologies on Importantly, the report’s authors acknowledge that 5G is still in transport goes far beyond the scope of a single report. As such, this the preliminary deployment phase, and can only estimate its full paper focuses on envisioning what the oncoming deployment of potential impact on both the transport sector and in general. 5G will mean for transport. The report provides an overview of the Undoubtedly, aspects of this intersection—which seem important relevant features of 5G, discussing how these will be implement- today—will amount to little, and the eventual key impact chan- ed within the transport sector, and then discussing three potential nels may differ from what is presented here. That said, the analysis use cases—including (1) connected and autonomous vehicles, (2) presented throughout this report is based on the current best un- urban mobility and MaaS, and (3) freight and logistics. After pre- derstanding of the evolutionary nature of both the technology and senting a description of key impact factors, the following chapters the sector. The analysis intends to present an indicative under- explore potential (and expected) costs, benefits, and challenges. standing for decisions makers in the transport sector, familiarizing The paper concludes with a discussion of the potential impacts and them with the terminology, opportunities, and challenges that will use cases developing countries could encounter, along with policy become increasingly important as 5G-enabled transport becomes challenges and opportunities facing decision makers in developing a reality. countries as they prepare for a 5G-enabled transport network. NOTES 1. Mobility as a Service (MaaS) describes a shift away from personally owned modes of transportation toward mobility provided as a service. This is enabled by combining transportation services from public and private transportation providers through a unified gateway that creates and manages the trip, which users can pay for with a single account. The key concept behind MaaS is to offer travelers mobility solutions based on their travel needs. A related concept, transport as a Service (TaaS), goes beyond the mobility of people and integrates the movement of goods. Introduction 15 02 RELEVANT FEATURES OF 5G FOR TRANSPORT 16 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport 5G is a fifth-generation wireless mobile communications technology. Applied to the transport sector, 5G will allow for a dramatic increase in the types, capacities, and numbers of connected devices. Such connectivity will undoubtedly influence a wide variety of services, mainly through 5G New Radio (NR)—the 5G standard for the radio access network. However, three main challenges must be solved before we can enable a truly networked society: (1) handling a higher traffic volume; that is, a higher rate of data; (2) managing the massive growth in the number of connected devices; and (3) creating a more reliable and low-latency transmission of goods and people; that is, all shipments and vehicles arrive—in a safe and timely manner—at their destinations. The effort to meet these challenges has resulted in three broad FIGURE 2.1. Relevance of 5G Features for Transport 5G-enabled communication types (Marsch et al 2018): (1) enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB), which requires super-high data rates Infotainment and wider bandwidths, for example, infotainment services in vehi- Tra c cles with multimedia provisioning and onboard video connectivity volume to assist in emergency response; (2) massive machine-type com- munications (mMTC), which requires low bandwidth, low energy Transport sector eMBB services consumption at the device, and high connection density, including the collection of measurements from roadside sensors to create a shared knowledge (collective intelligence) of traffic conditions; 5G Features and (3) ultra-reliable, low-latency communications (uRLLC), which requires very low latency, and very high reliability and availability, for example, to coordinate autonomous vehicle (AV) trajectories or mMTC uRLLC negotiate efficient, timely cross-junctions. Figure 2.1 illustrates the Number of Reliable and relevant features of these broad communication types, which are devices latency also discussed in more detail below. Collective intelligence Autonomous vehicles Relevant Features of 5G for Transport 17 Expanded bandwidth Greatly expanded numbers of connected devices The expanded bandwidth feature is related to the eMBB concept. In addition, mMTC devices must support high connection density Increasing the available bandwidth is essential for transmitting and ultra-high efficiency, to deal with the massive number of con- more bits per second; 5G needs spectrum to support these three nected devices stemming from AVs and roadside infrastructure, transport use cases, using three key frequency ranges, namely: including lights, signals, pedestrian walks, and more. In order to sub-1 gigahertz (GHz) spectrum; 1 to 6 GHz spectrum; and above support a high number of devices with limited resources, the 5G 6 GHz spectrum, also known as the millimeter wave band. Sub-1 NR standard is expected to offer important changes in the signal- GHz is best for widespread coverage and will be the main spectrum ing protocols and consumption of resources, in such a way that in rural areas as well as in low-income countries when costs of de- these sensors’ batteries could last up to 10 years. At this time, it is ployment should be kept at a minimum. The sub-1, or below GHz impossible to further discuss the 5G mMTC features, since the spec- band is also preferred for the support of wireless Internet of Things ifications have not yet been developed. However, the clear intention (IoT) services. The 1 to 6 GHz spectrum presents a good balance is to be much more ambitious than previous legacy technologies, between coverage and capacity, with between 3.3 and 3.8 GHz aiming for a 10-times greater maximum capacity of connected de- the preferred band for initial 5G deployment in current networks. vices per cell. Such changes are already being developed by the Finally, the millimeter wave band offers higher spectrum availability Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), the body responsible and allows for ultra-high broadband speeds. Currently, the 6 GHz for standardizing 5G. Within the 4G LTE specification—including and 28 GHz bands are the preferred options in the above 6 GHz the narrowband IoT (NB-IoT) technology—the improvements seek spectrum. to cover Day 1 mMTC services for 5G by satisfying the proposed re- quirements, such as extra coverage and extended battery life. As compared with 4G bandwidths of up to 20 megahertz (MHz) for Long-Term Evolution (LTE), 100 MHz for LTE-Advance, or up to In addition to these prominent features, 5G is also expected to de- 640 MHz in LTE-Advanced Pro, the maximum bandwidth for 5G NR liver two additional and important changes for the transport sector: ranges up to 100 MHz for below 6 GHz spectrum and up to 400 (1) allocation of dedicated resources for critical functions through MHz in the millimeter wave band, with the possibility of aggregating network slicing, and (2) ease of data sharing. two carriers and reaching a maximum bandwidth of 800 MHz.1 This spectrum is large enough to guarantee the provision of new mobility services based on immersive video. Network slicing Network slicing enables the same physical network infrastructure to deliver dedicated capacity for different services, and is required to provide uRLLC services. Network slicing creates isolated network 18 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport slices specifically designed to fulfill a specific set of service-level re- LTE network core does not allow 5G to realize its full potential, mainly quirements established by an end-user application. This technology in terms of the number of connected devices (mMTC), reliability, and is becoming increasingly important in many areas, including the au- low latency (URLLC), so that only purely eMBB-type services can be tomotive and aviation industries, and is expected to become a basic well deployed in an NSA solution. Thus, the benefit of the 5G on the 5G service. Its significance within AVs lies in the possibility—not transport sector can only be obtained with the SA solution. without its challenges—of segmenting 5G services to match de- vice and application requirements, therefore covering customized, unique needs of the industry. As shown in figure 2.2, due to strict Easy data sharing requirements in terms of latency and reliability, operators are active- The 5G feature of easy data sharing comes as a consequence of the ly pursuing the adoption of network slicing in the transport sector. massive amount of data collected from mMTC communications. Network slicing would allow for: Within the core network, sharing is enhanced via the network expo- sure function (NEF) (Kekki et al 2018). The NEF allows third parties ► Integrating the quality guarantees of 5G V2X communica- to use data from the 5G network through defining a standardized tion services with other mobile broadband services, thus interface—the main improvement over previous technologies— enabling AVs to connect to the Internet and other cellular and allowing data access from outside the operator network. In the devices. past, every operator and data consumer had to agree on a common ► Increasing the reliability of the V2X network through this language. With the language standardization through NEF, data integration, allowing data transmission via both the Vehicle- exposure is simplified and boosted. NEF’s programmable platform to-Vehicle (V2V) path and the Vehicle-to-Infrastructure allows creation of new applications based on collaboration, open- (V2I-I2V) path using the network as a repeater. Although ing the door for network operators and others to put data to use, this redundancy path does not solve the important problem maximize innovation, minimize the time to market, and create new of interoperability between vehicles connected to different services for consumers and enterprises while leveraging the in- mobile network operators, the redundant reliable paths do creased data encryption capabilities built into the 5G architecture. improve safety. In addition, monetizable services could bring additional revenues to ► Improving efficiency and reducing cost of cellular devices by players investing in 5G data-sharing applications. introducing asynchronous transmission modes, which would remove the tight time constraints seen under previous gen- Although the NEF is not specific to the transport sector and could erations of cellular technologies. be used by any vertical application, it holds a specific interest for third-party logistics (3PL) players. One could imagine, therefore, a Although this report is not specifically technical in nature, it is im- scenario in which 3PL players could invest in deploying their own 5G portant to highlight here that 5G contemplates its deployment with communications network for transport and then offering Transport two options, either by connecting only the new 5G radio interface to as a Service (TaaS) to third parties accessing the exact position an LTE network core, known as non-standalone mode (NSA), or by of means of transport and network-connected merchandise. This including both the radio interface and the new 5G network core, a would improve transport efficiency and ultimately allow for live deployment option known as standalone deployment (SA). Using an FIGURE 2.2. Example of Network Slicing to Support Various Industries Source: GSMA 2017. Relevant Features of 5G for Transport 19 traceability of goods, thus connecting producers, consumers, and or reliability, must shift toward low-latency, ultra-reliable 5G net- transporters. The existence of the NEF entity opens the door for 3PL works. AVs will need to respond to stimuli at least as quickly as a to emerge as new market players in the more mature 5G era. It is human driver, on the order of 1 to 2 milliseconds. 5G will promote still early to conclude how this new player could come to collab- the communication capabilities to a next level and also provide a orate with vendors and operators, but likely their role would be in long-term roadmap for the enhancement of vehicle-to-everything the form of a virtual mobile operator, running their service over a (V2X) communications. However, despite the current major ad- neutral carrier. Similarly, in cities, publicly developed 5G networks vances in AV technology, the challenges of integrating converging could be leveraged to enable specific data access for Mobility as a communications technologies and networks, such as vehicle au- Service (MaaS) providers, thus increasing the traffic network effi- tomation, connectivity, wireless charging via cloud devices, the ciency and improving the transport management. The 5G is not just wireless IoT, big data, and machine learning, must also be ad- enabling more advanced applications and services but also trans- dressed when developing AVs. Automotive original equipment forming the market ecosystem and business models. manufacturers (OEMs) have been addressing these challenges together with telecommunications services, mostly focusing on connectivity and business models, while academia is exploring how Low latency artificial intelligence (AI) can create new mobility horizons. These efforts are moving quickly, with the first complete version of 5G Among these three important types of communication use cases specifications for cellular-based V2X (C-V2X) communications due enabled by the 5G, uRLLC is of special relevance for the transport for release in September 2020. Looking forward, the first commer- sector. To unlock the potential of autonomous driving, the previ- cial tests should roll out in one to two years. ous focus on network capacity, without much attention to latency NOTES R EFER ENCES 1. The relatively low maximum bandwidth and number of carriers for 5G GSMA (Groupe Speciale Mobile Association). 2017. “An Introduction to Network New Radio is a current limitation of 3GPP standards; the aim is to extend Slicing.” GSMA. Accessed May 2020. https://www.gsma.com/futurenetworks/ capacity in future releases of the 5G specifications, for up to 16 carriers. wp-content/uploads/2017/11/GSMA-An-Introduction-to-Network-Slicing.pdf. Kekki, Sami, Walter Featherstone, Yonggang Fang, Pekka Kuure, Alice Li, Anurag Ranjan, Debashish Purkayastha, Feng Jiangping, Danny Frydman, Gianluca Verin, Kuo-Wei Wen, Kwihoon Kim, Rohit Arora, Andy Odgers, Luis M. Contreras, and Salvatore Scarpina. 2018. “MEC in 5G Networks.” ETSI White Paper 28. ETSI (European Telecommunications Standards Institute), Valbonne– Sophia Antipolis, France. Accessed May 2020. Marsch, Patrick, Ömer Bulakçı, Olav Queseth, and Mauro Boldi, eds. 2018. 5G System Design: Architectural and Functional Considerations and Long Term Research. Chichester, West Sussex, United Kingdom: John Wiley & Sons. 20 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport 03 TRANSLATING 5G INTO THE TRANSPORT SECTOR 22 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport The characteristics of 5G presented in the previous chapter create a number of opportunities for transforming the transport sector. These use cases include (1) enabling revolutionary advancements in the potential connectivity of autonomous vehicles (AVs), (2) increasing the capacity and efficiency of “smart” connected infrastructure and devices, and (3) improving data availability in transport operations and management. This section explores the ongoing and future advances along these three tracks from a technical angle, with deeper implications addressed later in the report. The linkages established between the 5G features and new trans- of V2X into 5G. Other promises of 5G explained throughout this port technologies through these three opportunities illustrate the text—especially those related to massive wireless tracking—have importance of 5G in developing the transport sector. Figure 3.1 not yet been specified, making it impossible to provide more than a shows these linkages between features and applications. This re- qualitative analysis. As such, the discussion of these potential ap- port uses these transforming opportunities to link 5G technology plications is less detailed. with the transport sector. It is important to note that existing wireless technologies already Experts anticipate the application of vehicle-to-everything (V2X) support a range of applications within the transport sector, in terms communications to enhance intelligent transportation systems (ITS) of handheld user-facing applications (such as passenger informa- will be one of the most useful realizations of 5G. Potential benefits tion systems, routing, traffic monitoring, or ride sharing) as well as include the promise of efficient road traffic management, reduction the host of use cases that rely on Internet of Things (IoT) devices, in collisions and better safety outcomes, diminished driving times, Although this paper is intended to focus on the implications of 5G improved fuel efficiency, and pollution prevention, among others. connectivity, some discussion of developments based on existing This is why the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), the technology is included where it helps illuminate the evolution to- body tasked with standardizing 5G, in its progressive development ward future 5G applications. of the standard has chosen to prioritize specifying the integration Translating 5G into the Transport Sector 23 FIGURE 3.1. Linkages between 5G Features, Transforming Opportunities and New Transport Applications TRANSPORT 5G FEATUR ES USE CASES TECHNOLOGIES Connected and Expanded bandwidth V2X autonomous vehicles Low latency Greatly expanded Smart and number of Smart Connectivity e cient logistics connected devices Network slicing Real time monitoring Improved urban Easy sharing of passengers and mobility and public of data freight transport VEHICLE- TO - EVERYTHING Currently, there are two V2X approaches, using two different un- derlying technologies. The first approach, known as dedicated COM M UNICATIONS short range communication (DSRC), supports V2X connectiv- ity based on a variant of Wi-Fi technology standardized as IEEE As shown in figure 3.2 (taken from figure 3.1), 5G will allow for a 802.11p. This technology is known in America as wireless access dramatic expansion in the communications capacities of vehicles in vehicular environments (WAVE) and in Europe as ITS-G5. The by leveraging expanded bandwidth, reducing latency for real-time second approach is based on cellular technologies, known as cel- communications, enhancing reliability, expanding the number of lular-based V2X (C-V2X). Proposed by the 3GPP, it was originally connected devices, boosting stability via network slicing, and mak- based on 4G LTE technology but has recently been upgraded to ing data sharing easier. leverage 5G potential. It should be noted that, despite its prom- ise, the integration of 5G into the ITS discussion is still in the early The advent of V2X communication technologies has delivered a host stages, since this technology is yet not completely established of new use cases. V2X, a communications system that interconnects (due to the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, the V2X standard has a road vehicle to any entity that may concern it, is a broad concept been delayed until late 2020). encompassing a range of communications channels, including the subcategories described in table 3.1. Both WAVE and C-V2X support direct communication between vehicles (V2V) as well as communication with infrastructure (V2I). 24 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport Services based solely on V2V communications require only the Exploring the future V2X applications empowered through 5G availability of a radio module in each vehicle—that is, the transmit- requires some understanding of the applications V2X communica- ter and a spectrum1 allocated to the service. However, in order to tions could bring to the transport sector using current technologies. support V2I applications, WAVE could require deploying a specific Assessing the services enabled by V2X under a “Day 1, 2, and 3” network along supported roadways when necessary. In comparison, model (Asselin-Miller et al 2016) disaggregates those already via- for V2I applications, either 4G- or 5G-enabled C-V2X technologies ble from those which will be implementable in the medium to long could make use of pre-existing cellular networks already deployed term. A brief explanation of this “three-day” model follows: by any operator, which would greatly reduce deployment cost.2 ► Day 1 services: consider the exchange of status data to en- hance predictive driving FIGURE 3.2. 5G Features Applicable to V2X ► Day 2 services: enhance vehicle awareness through the ex- change of sensor data ► Day 3 services: are based on the exchange of intention data, which facilitates a better coordination of vehicles to allow Expanded bandwidth autonomous driving WAVE was initially designed with Day 1 services in mind, while 4G LTE C-V2X could be considered as either a Day 1 or Day 2 enabling Low latency technology. Finally, Day 3 services rely on 5G-enabled C-V2X. Of course, future technologies may eventually accommodate Day 3 services, but to date only 5G offers the technology necessary to Greatly expanded make this possible. The sections below look at these scenarios in number of V2X more detail. connected devices Network slicing Easy sharing of data TABLE 3.1. V2X Subcategories VEHICLE-TO-VEHICLE V2V Direct communication between two vehicles Communication between a vehicle and fixed infrastructure, such as VEHICLE-TO-INFRASTRUCTURE V2I traffic lights, infrastructure monitoring and control devices, parking services, etc. Communications between vehicles and pedestrian devices, alerting VEHICLE-TO-PEDESTRIANS V2P pedestrians of vehicle movements and warnings for vehicles Communication between vehicles and non-V2V enabled vehicles and VEHICLE-TO-DEVICE V2D cyclists Communications with the cellular network, either to facilitate other VEHICLE-TO-NETWORK V2N types of V2X communications, or to access Internet resources Translating 5G into the Transport Sector 25 Day 1: V2I based services Leveraging either WAVE or C-V2X standards, Day 1 services are vi- Similarly, Day 1 services based on V2V communications could in- able in the near term and build off of existing technologies without clude the following (and are also illustrated in figure 3.3): centralized, cloud-based services. ► Intersection collision warning—exchanges information Day 1 services, based on V2I communications, could include the between two vehicles about their positions and dynamics to following: help detect the risk of collision in an intersection. ► Overtaking vehicle warning—measures the potential risk, ► Road work warning—provides information on current detected by an overtaking vehicle, of an oncoming vehicle. roadwork and associated constraints. The information can Based on information broadcasted by other vehicles, likely be sent by a nearby Roadside Unit (RSU) or via cellular node the vehicles to be passed. with C-V2X technologies, if coverage exists in the area. ► Local hazard warning—shares information, collected by ► Traffic jam ahead warning—uses the infrastructure to one vehicle, with other vehicles about any abnormal station- warn incoming vehicles of a traffic jam ahead. Requires the ary or disabled position that could cause a traffic risk. existence of a back-end service with the capacity for detect- ► Left-turn assist warning—shares information about other ing traffic congestion based on recurrent position-related vehicles’ locations and movements to identify potential risks messages sent from vehicles. in completing a left-turn maneuver. ► Green light optimal speed advisory (GLOSA)—allows a traffic light to broadcast timing data associated to its current state, together with speed advisories vehicles can follow to pass through intersections without stopping. ► Contextual information exchange—shares information from various sensors with the vehicle or the infrastructure, including information on tolls, traffic lights, speed limits, weather conditions, fueling stations, parking, and more. In this line, for instance, public transport could be connect- ed to control operations centers to assist with passenger management. FIGURE 3.3. Day 1 V2X Services V2I services V2V services Road work warning Tra c jam ahead warning Intersection collision warning Overtaking vehicle warning Informs the oncoming vehicle of Informs the oncoming vehicle of traffic Informs vehicles of potential crash risks at Informs a vehicle of any potential risk in potential dangers ahead situation ahead an intersection overtaking another vehicle Green light optimal Contextual information Local hazard warning Left-turn assist warning speed advisory exchange One vehicle informs another about its Avoids collisions when completing a Advises on the optimal driving speeds Broadcasts useful information to assist in potential hazardous stationary or disabled left turn to avoid stopping at intersections transport and traffic management position 26 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport Day 2: ITS leveraging centralized cloud services In the Day 2 deployment phase of V2X-enabled ITS services, en- could suggest the required speed adopted by the ACC as well vironmental sensing will play a new role, in which all vehicles and as the activation or deactivation point. the cloud share information about detected objects. This will allow ► Vulnerable road user warning—informs the driver about vehicles to recognize obstacles not detected by their own sen- a possible collision with vulnerable road users, such as pe- sors. This cooperative awareness will also permit semi-automated destrians, motorbikes or bicycles. In extreme cases, the reactions, like automatic braking for vulnerable road user (VRU) vehicle could automatically brake to avoid the collision. A protection or cooperative adaptive cruise control (C-ACC). Day 2 similar solution could be based on giving priority at traffic services will likely require C-V2X connectivity, leveraging an associ- lights to public transport and pedestrians by detecting their ated Internet connection with a cloud service, ideally located in the proximity. network edge, for cooperative knowledge sharing. As shown in fig- ► Advanced intersection collision warning—shares in- ure 3.4, among the main services identified for Day 2, the following formation about non-cooperative vehicles detected by may be the most significant: environmental sensors. Allows vehicles to detect the risk of an intersection collision and warn the driver accordingly. ► Cooperative adaptive cruise control (C-ACC)—uses V2X communications to obtain the lead vehicle’s motion and Such services could also be leveraged for other road users, such coordinate traffic, improving on current adaptive cruise con- as cyclists (Hawkins 2018), providing support for enhanced safety. trol (ACC) and allowing for dynamic changes. Infrastructure FIGURE 3.4. Day 2 V2X Services Advanced intersection collision warning Exchanges trajectory and sensor data, even with non-connected vehicles Centralized cloud services VRU warning Automatically controls a vehicle to avoid Cooperative ACC collisions with vulnerable road users Using information detected by environmental sensors, allows vehicles to detect risks of an intersection collision and warn the drivers Translating 5G into the Transport Sector 27 Day 3: 5G-enabled cooperative driving and autonomous vehicles 5G offers the opportunity to improve many existing technologies, ► No-light intersections (an extension of GLOSA)—allows ve- would allow the consolidation of Day 1 and Day 2 services, and hicles to cooperatively adjust speeds and cross intersections would enable the implementation of Day 3 services based on co- without collisions, making traffic lights at city intersections operative driving and, thus, full automation (see figure 3.5). The increasingly redundant. Policies to prioritize users and co- expected time in which these services will be introduced depends ordinate vehicles would also be able to stop traffic when on the development time and availability of vehicles with auto- pedestrians or bicycles signal an intention to cross. mated driving capabilities (as determined by standards set by the ► Cooperative driving—shares common destination knowl- Society of Automobile Engineers, or SAE, Levels 3 and 4, explained edge for all moving vehicles in an area, allowing route below). Connected AVs could share information and intended ac- managers to avoid congestion in advance. tions with other vehicles, infrastructure, and connected devices in ► Trajectory or maneuver sharing—permits a vehicle ready order to coordinate maneuvers and avoid conflicts. A good example to perform a maneuver to notify other vehicles about its im- of such Day 3 services is cooperative lane merging, although addi- minent occurrence, allowing coordinated reactions. tional services can be identified, such as: ► Advanced platooning—coordinates vehicles to operate safely as a platoon on a highway, with longitudinal and lat- eral control, maximizing driving efficiency. The next step in cooperative adaptive cruise control, such platooning allows trucks to drive within less than 1 meter of each other, improv- ing fuel economy and safety. FIGURE 3.5. Day 3 V2X Services in the 5G Era No-light intersections Cooperative driving Exchanges trajectories and adjusts vehicle Coordinates vehicle movements and traffic crossings at no-stop intersections data to avoid congestion Advanced platooning Trajectory or maneuver sharing Coordinates moving vehicles in a platoon, Informs vehicles of the intention of another significantly reducing energy consumption vehicle to perform a maneuver, e.g., lane change Fast breaking 28 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport Currently, autonomous vehicles cannot detect obstacles outside between vehicles and infrastructure, enabling rapid completion of their fields of vision, nor are they aware of traffic occurring more complex decisions, improving road safety, and allowing vehicles to than a half-mile down the road, not to mention the driving inten- make more reliable decisions than humans. Finally, the mMTC fea- tions and routes of the surrounding vehicles a few feet away. This ture will connect smart devices to the collective intelligence system affects their ability to safely operate in dense urban landscapes, that includes not only vehicles, but also traffic lights, road signs, some of the most difficult scenarios for validating AVs. To over- sensors, pedestrians, public transport, etc. come this, 5G combined with artificial intelligence (AI), big data, and cybersecurity appear as technological enablers, allowing AVs Autonomous vehicles are being developed by a wide range of actors, to constantly and safely access and interpret the data collected by from the auto industry (Ford, Hyundai, Tesla, etc.), to the telecom numerous surrounding vehicles and roadside units. As a result of sector players adding further features (Ericsson, Korea Telecom, this cooperation and massive data processing, the huge swathes of etc.), to companies such as Uber and Alphabet (Google), among additional data being collected by other vehicles and sensor sourc- others. Still, the current state of technology is far from achieving full es will allow the vehicle to react to changes in the road surface, automation. As of 2020, the most advanced Tesla car features a SAE weather, traffic conditions, and intended actions of other vehi- Level 2, which requires some kind of driver assistance, for example, cles. Therefore, 5G is needed to provide not only the required low cruise control or lane exit correction. Audi delivered its first-gen- latency (referred to as ultra-reliable low latency communications, eration A8 luxury sedan able to reach SAE Level 3 in October 2019, or URLLC) and the high broadband communications (referred to although the model is not yet commercially available at the writing as enhanced mobile broadband, or eMBB) necessary for real-time of this report. The A8 model allows the vehicle to connect with traf- communication among vehicles and the infrastructure, but to sup- fic lights, implementing adjustable speeds to avoid stopping. SAE port the billions of connected IoT devices (referred to as massive Level 3 means that the vehicle would be able to drive itself most machine-type communications, or mMTC) which will provide a of the time, but still require the involvement of a person in several constant flow of information. The eMBB feature will allow, for ex- complex scenarios. ample, advanced entertainment options as well as some advanced Figure 3.6 shows the five levels of driving automation, as deter- security-related services, such as the eagle view, which allows a mined by SAE International. vehicle to see what is happening beyond the vehicle in front of it. The uRLLC feature will allow for the rapid exchange of messages FIGURE 3.6. SAE Levels of Driving Automation LEVEL 0 LEVEL 1 LEVEL 2 LEVEL 3 LEVEL 4 LEVEL 5 No automation Driver Partial Conditional High Full assistance automation automation automation automation Manual control e.g., cruise control Vehicle can Relates to Vehicle performs all Requires zero accelerate, brake, environment driving tasks human attention and control Vehicle can drive Driver is required in direction alone, but driver is some adverse still required conditions Source: Graphic based on SAE International’s standards for driving automation levels; for more information, go to http://sae.org. Translating 5G into the Transport Sector 29 SAE Level 4 autonomy is able to handle all scenarios and does not play a fundamental role, at least with regard to massive sensors rely on a driver in all but the most adverse conditions. SAE Level integration in the cloud-shared knowledge. To guarantee security, 5 means full autonomy without human interaction in all complex communication between pedestrians and the vehicle must, nec- situations, such as removing the steering wheel from the vehicle. essarily, be done through a cellular connection and, in addition, Experts anticipate the first prototypes of SAE Level 5 will appear with very low latency. In addition, 5G offers unique elements able in 2030, with a massive deployment of SAE Level 5 around 2050. to execute edge computing with a guaranteed transmission, which Reaching Levels 4 and 5 will require the achievement of signifi- also makes it an ideal technology for communications among ve- cant milestones. While it is not yet clear which technology these hicles with different road sensors or information points. Still, other vehicles will employ, especially in terms of V2X communications challenges are pending, such as the connectivity problem between (WAVE versus C-V2X, as discussed earlier), experts agree 5G will vehicles and multiple operators. SMART CONNECTIVITY While the features of 5G mentioned above will contribute to en- With 5G, the Internet will move from being available anywhere abling smart connectivity—expanding the quantity and quality of and anytime in a device to being available everywhere at any time coverage in the transport environment—of particular importance through most devices. Interactions will differ; the mobile screen will be network slicing, expanding the quantity of connected devic- will no longer be the only possible interface for interaction with the es, and facilitating the sharing of data. (see figure 3.7). Internet, vehicles, and goods, as devices will be connected and in- teract with each other. In fact, connection to the Internet will be Technically, smart connectivity systems are platforms that support transparent for the end user, with 5G embedded in the system in a a highly flexible connectivity infrastructure that can dynamically way that obscures it. The most natural next step toward this vision adapt toward seamless and secure end-to-end interworking with is to distribute access points everywhere, in such a way that the computing resources and with a range of innovative devices. In distance to the end user is reduced to a few feet and ideally always the transport context this implies a proliferation of access points within line of sight conditions. The shorter the link length the better throughout the infrastructure and vehicles, providing ubiquitous for propagation, interference confinement, and feasibility of using connectivity for users, containers, infrastructure, cars, trains, and higher frequency bands. This ultra-dense network could work, pro- all other aspects of the transport environment. vided the new access points are deployed taking advantage of other upgrades on the infrastructure, such as on top of traffic lights or light posts. Lowering costs per device is critical to the economic FIGURE 3.7. 5G Features Applicable to Smart viability of this smart infrastructure, and this is where the flexibility Connectivity in 5G protocols excels in enabling access points to serve as low-cost transceivers. Another option that is gaining considerable interest is to deploy 5G access points on public transport vehicles themselves. These mo- bile cells can be integrated into the operator’s network using 5G TRANSPORT wireless bridges over the millimeter waved bands and guarantee 5 G FEATUR ES TECH NOLOGIES better service within the wagons themselves in a more cost-effec- tive manner than installing Wi-Fi in the vehicles (McKinnell 2019). Greatly expanded number of Such connectivity will enable a rapid expansion in the use of con- connected devices nected devices for infrastructure monitoring and maintenance, allowing for a more targeted and responsive approach by infrastruc- ture owners. In instances of natural disasters, such connectivity will Network slicing Smart contribute to response and recovery efforts. connectivity By enabling a proliferation of connected devices, reducing latency, and facilitating data sharing, 5G opens the door for a dramatic step Easy sharing forward in the tracking of goods as well as in identifying and meet- of data ing the needs of transport users (figure 3.8). 30 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport Improvement in monitoring the public through the advanced loca- FIGURE 3.8. 5G Features Applicable to Real-Time tion mechanisms incorporated in 5G will allow better management Monitoring of Passengers and Freight of public transport, although associated privacy concerns will need to be addressed. For example, the allocation of vehicles to different routes may be modified to better respond to fluctuating demand, or the sequences of traffic lights could be modified to prioritize public transport. Advanced automatic ticketing schemes could enable not only contactless payment, but payment systems where the simple TRANSPORT 5G FEATUR ES presence of a rider on a bus or shared bike is enough to identify and TECHNOLOGIES process payments. However, this requires a level of connectivity not possible under the current mobile standards. 5G will be the door to Low latency this new era of sustainable and efficient public transport, support- ing citywide or countrywide Mobility as a Service (MaaS) schemes with enhanced safety and entertainment measures onboard and in Greatly expanded Real-time monitoring stations. Increased connectivity of devices and the public’s interac- number of of passengers and tion with improved transport payment options will also allow a more connected devices freight granular collection of data on differentiated user mobility patterns, which can support better and more inclusive transport planning. Easy sharing of data R EAL- TIM E MONITORING OF PASSENGERS increase location intelligence, optimize transport, minimize delays, AND FR EIGHT and help customers better prepare to receive goods. 5G IoT devices can track more than shipments; they can also be attached to in- In terms of logistics, 5G could potentially be a strong enabler of new dividual items for precise identification and location, significantly technologies. A survey by Moor Insights & Strategy (2015) reveals improve warehouse shelving, inventory management, and picking that 90 percent of logistics and shipping providers identify sup- and packing operations, with a detailed understanding of exactly ply chain visibility as one of today’s biggest logistics challenges. where a specific product is at all times. In addition, 5G tracking Increased visibility for fleet and cargo owners directly translates to technology enhances warehouse management, while streamlining decreases in delays and losses, ultimately saving time and money. inbound logistics and outbound distribution. Items can be environ- With 5G and broader adoption of sensors, location tracking to the mentally monitored at the product level by dedicated IoT sensors, unit level can improve end-to-end visibility and reliability in prod- subsequently gathering real-time information on measures like uct level delays and unforeseen travel circumstances, thus reducing temperature, humidity, light levels, gas levels, and any other areas revenue leakage and losses, including losses due to theft. In logis- that could impact the quality or safety of sensitive products. With tics, particularly in “just-in-time” scenarios, any time savings and more detailed product monitoring, logistics providers will be able enhancement in tracking brings significant cost efficiency. As an to: (1) ensure freshness of food and other perishable items; (2) help example, a good planning of the fleet resulting in the reduction of manage the safety of products that could be compromised, like empty miles has a direct impact on fuel waste and, therefore, on the chemicals or raw materials; and (3) deliver items to the quality the direct costs of operation. Therefore, technological advances, such customer expects. as advance tracking, drone delivery, or AVs (trucks, cargo boats, Furthermore, 5G can help improve last-mile delivery issues by and goods trains), propels growth in the logistics market. seamlessly supporting new technologies, such as drones. For ex- Currently, logistics providers increasingly use IoT devices to track ample, a remote pilot could fly a drone using video, or drones could cargo, but 5G networks, characterized by low latency, will translate become fully autonomous, with 5G supporting their sensors and into real-time tracking (and 1 millisecond (ms) latency in reporting). communications. Self-driving vehicles can also help with last-mile Logistics providers will be able to (1) provide live status updates to delivery, enabling vans and cars to navigate to the customer’s loca- their customers, (2) understand potential delays when shipping, (3) tion. In the future, dedicated delivery robots could transport goods use AI to optimize fleet routes, based on the latest data, and (4) within cities, while autonomous public transport vehicles could forecast exactly when goods will arrive. These benefits will also help respond in a more efficient real time manner to the ever-evolving transport needs of residents. Translating 5G into the Transport Sector 31 NOTES 1. In this context, “spectrum” refers to the portion of the electro-mag- netic spectrum allocated to a specific radio-based technology (such as 4G LTE, 5G, or even FM radio or television). This spectrum must be allocated by national authorities, defining the specific channels and bandwidth established for each technology. While the influence of the country-specific policies is limited to a prompt and efficient allocation of the spectrum, the specific technology deployed in vehicles will be largely determined by market concerns and economies-of-scale. While outside of the scope of this paper, the current technical opinion is that C-V2X technologies will end up dominating the market, since they not only allow the inclusion of ITS services, but support other services that rely on Internet access, such as infotainment or cloud services. 2. The report authors have attempted to approach V2X from a technology agnostic perspective, seeking to inform policy makers of the status of ever-evolving technology options without recommending one specific technology. Policy makers may develop policies which favor either C-V2X or WAVE, or adopt a neutral stance, allowing industry and market self-regulation to decide on the most appropriate technology for transi- tioning to connected autonomous vehicles. Notably, in the technological dispute some evidence from both sides might not be as rigorous as needed; consequently, developing firm recommendations might not be possible at this stage. R EFER ENCES Asselin-Miller, Nick, Marius Biedka, Gena Gibson, Felix Kirsch, Nikolas Hill, Ben White, and Kotub Uddin. 2016. Study on the Deployment of C-ITS in Europe: Final Report: Framework Contract on Impact Assessment and Evaluation Studies in the Field of Transport OVE/3/119-2013-Lot No 5 “Horizontal.” Report for DG MOVE MOVE/C 3. No. 2014–794. Ricardo Energy & Environment, London. https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/2016-c-its-deployment- study-final-report.pdf. Hawkins, Andrew J. 2018. “Can ‘Bicycle-to-Vehicle’ Communication Help Make Cycling Safer?” The Verge, January 9. Accessed May 2020. https://www.theverge.com/2018/1/9/16870614/ ford-trek-tome-bicycle-to-vehicle-communication-ces-2018. McKinnell, Ellie. 2019. “This Is the Reason Why London Buses Don’t Have Wi-Fi Yet.” MyLondon.com, December 3. Accessed May 2020. https://www.mylondon. news/news/zone-1-news/reason-london-buses-dont-wifi-17353812. Moor Insights & Strategy. 2015. “Can Jabil Revolutionize the Supply Chain?” White Paper commissioned by Jabil. https://www.jabil.com/dam/jcr:66273b14-209e- 4ed5-8938-6fcf71049f82/can-jabil-revolutionize-the-supply-chain.pdf. 32 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport Translating 5G into the Transport Sector 33 04 THE 5G-ENABLED TRANSPORT SECTOR 34 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport Although the technical fifth-generation (5G) standards continue to be developed, there is little doubt the innovations enabled by this technology will dramatically change the transport sector. There is little doubt the transport sector is undergoing a digital revolution, even without the advent of 5G. Ticketing is moving online, taking advantage of Fintech developments, multimodal transfers are connecting a variety of public transport services, and the transport of goods has been revolutionized by eCommerce. Vehicles are also becoming smarter, with systems providing ever higher standards of safety, navigation, and voice control. In cities worldwide, evolving business models are providing transport users with options they have never before enjoyed, with Mobility as a Service (MaaS) and new mobility options available at the touch of a screen. The transport ecosystem now not only includes automakers, but From a business model perspective, the advent of hyperconnect- also car-sharing services, public transportation, computing, and ed and 5G-enabled vehicles will transform the transport business. infrastructure providers. The market for connected vehicles is ex- Apart from MaaS, new opportunities will also arise based on the pected to grow by ten percent a year in Europe and almost thirty data generated by the proliferation of AVs—effectively super-effi- percent a year in China (Grijpink et al 2020). Although potential cient, moving sensors. New services based on big data aggregation, use cases of 5G are endless (table 4.1 collects the most significant for example, real-time variable cost of car rides or media-intensive transport-specific pilots so far), some aspects of the transport cybersecurity surveillance services, will allow for new business sector can be more clearly foreseen, especially those building on models to develop and thrive. Within the logistics sectors, the the already ongoing innovations and revolutions based on current tracking of goods and increasingly efficient operations, including technology, such as the growth of Transport as a Service (TaaS) and autotomized vehicles, will streamline and restructure how var- connected and autonomous vehicles (CAV) as mobility options for ious transport modes operate, as well as facilitate multimodal moving passengers, revolutions in the public transport sector and operations. intelligent transport systems (ITS), and increasingly interconnected and multimodal freight. This chapter identifies some of the clear trends in the transport sec- tor, which will be empowered through 5G connectivity. The 5G-Enabled Transport Sector 35 TABLE 4.1. Selected 5G-Enabled Transport Pilots PRESS DATE PLACE PARTNERS INVOLVED C-V2X USE CASE OR TOPIC RELEASE URL Bosch, Huawei, Real-time integration of 5G C-V2X with adaptive cruise control driver assistance March 2018 Munich 1 Vodafone Germany system Colorado Department Roadside units with real-time information about road conditions such as traffic United July 2018 of Transportation, delays, icy conditions, and crashes through continuous and automatic communi- 2 States Panasonic cations between individual vehicles and roadside infrastructure Continental, Ericsson, Lossless data transfers between vehicles traveling at up to 500 km per hour, even December 2018 Japan Nissan, NTT DOCOMO, 3 at distances of over 450 meters OKI, Qualcomm United Audi, Ford, Ducati, January 2019 Cooperative driving: four-way stops 4 States Qualcomm C-V2X ITS technology deployed in over 500 U.S. communities, applied to traffic United signals, emergency vehicle traffic signal preemption, transit bus traffic signal January 2019 Applied Information Inc. 5 States priority, school zone flashing beacons, variable message signs, work zone safety systems T-Mobile, Deutsche Czech February 2019 Telekom, Skoda, Direct communication among vehicles and between a vehicle and infrastructure 6 Republic C-Roads project Telefonica, Ericsson, Safer driving in a city (e.g., detection of cyclists when turning right or of a pedes- February 2019 Spain 7 Ficosa, Seat trian at a zebra crossing “Digital safety-shield” for cyclists and pedestrians, using C-V2X direct communi- February 2019 Germany Continental, Vodafone 8 cation and edge computingin the first 5G deployments May 2019 Finland 5G-Drive project Green light optimal speed advisory (GLOSA), intelligent intersection 9 19 potential usage applications so far, including emergency brake warnings from June 2019 China China Mobile, Huawei nearby vehicles, and a parking assist, including autonomous driving assistance 10 and green waves for buses Connected vehicle safety systems, including emergency braking alerts, in-vehicle June 2019 Australia Telstra, Lexus Australia speed limit compliance warnings, right-turn assist for vulnerable road users, and 11 warnings when surrounding vehicles are likely to violate a red light BMW China, China July 2019 China Autonomous cars using 5G networks 12 Unicom United September 2019 Sprint, HAAS Alert Accident prevention 13 States September 2019 Spain Telefonica, DGT, Seat IoT technology to increase cyclist safety on the road 14 November 2019 Italy TIM, FCA, Ericsson, et al Demos by the 5G Autonomous Association on 5G applied to safety 15 5G private wireless network, remote engine parts inspection for its civil aviation February 2020 Finland Nokia, Lufthansa Technik 16 customers Landslide monitoring and early warning system, real-time monitoring of sensors March 2020 China Nokia, China Mobile 17 and warning March 2020 Belgium Nokia Private 5G network and cloud computing for the Belgium port of Zeebrugge 18 Note: URLs for press releases listed in table: 1. https://www.huawei.com/en/press-events/news/2018/3/huawei-vodafone-bosch-smart-cars; 2. https://www.co- dot.gov/news/2018/july/cdot-and-panasonic-take-first-steps-to-turn-i-70-into-connected-roadway; 3. https://www.ericsson.com/ja/press-releases/2/2018/1/ leading-automotive-telecom-and-its-companies-unveil-first-announced-cellular-v2x-trials-in-japan; 4. https://www.qualcomm.com/news/releases/2019/01/07/ audi-ducati-and-ford-host-live-interactive-demos-las-vegas-using-c-v2x; 5. https://www.traffictechnologytoday.com/news/connected-vehicles-infrastructure/applied- informations-c-v2x-its-technology-now-deployed-in-over-500-us-communities.html; 6. https://www.t-press.cz/en/press-releases/press-news-archive/t-mobile-is-testing- cv2x-data-technology-for-vehicles-and-infrastructure.html; 7. https://www.telefonica.com/en/web/press-office/-/telefonica-and-seat-show-5G-connected-car-use-cases-for- safer-driving-in-a-city-environment; 8. https://www.continental.com/en/press/press-releases/2019-02-21-mwc-2019-vodafone-163980; 9. https://static1.squarespace.com/ static/5bf2b77d75f9eefcd937cb5c/t/5d1a2dcf22c1f70001355277/1561996778142/3.+Uwe+Herzog.pdf; 10. https://5Gaa.org/news/5Gaa-brings-together-key-actors-to-share-ad- vances-on-c-v2x-deployment-in-china-at-mwc-shanghai-2019/; 11. https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/connected-vehicle-trial-hits-the-road-in-australian-first/; 12. https://tech- node.com/2019/07/11/bmw-china-unicom-5G/; 13. https://www.telecompetitor.com/sprint-completes-5G-vehicle-to-everything-pilot/; 14. https://www.volkswagenag.com/ en/news/2019/09/seat_cyclists_safety.html; 15. https://5Gaa.org/news/5Gaa-live-demos-show-c-v2x-as-a-market-reality/; 16. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-re- lease/2020/02/27/1991601/0/en/Nokia-deploys-5G-private-wireless-network-for-Lufthansa-Technik-virtual-inspection-trial.html; 17. https://www.developingtelecoms.com/ telecom-technology/iot-m2m-ai/9341-nokia-partners-with-china-mobile-to-deliver-iot-based-highway-landslide-alert-platform.html; 18. https://www.telecompaper.com/ news/nokia-completes-first-phase-of-5G-ready-network-deployment-in-belgian-port-of-zeebrugge--1331836. 36 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport TH E TR EN D TOWAR DS CONNECTED AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES 5G-enabled cars will differ from today’s cars in a number of ways, to forecast when the four technological innovations posited by the and the business models governing the transport sector will also CAV paradigm (electrification, autonomy, connectivity, and sharing) be very different. As these trends will be mutually reinforcing and will be adopted, as discussed in figure 4.1. unlikely to happen independent from each other, this section ad- dresses this broader transformation and the impact of its different Additionally, a prominent seminal study by Brown et al (2014) components, one of which is, without a doubt, the connectivity of- focused exclusively on energy issues and AVs. This was later ex- fered by 5G. tended to assess the effect on the environment (Wadud et al 2016; Stephens et al 2016), travel demands (Wadud et al 2016), and sus- As of March 2020 no connective and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) tainability (Taiebat et al 2018), as well as to include CAVs in the have the ability to operate without a safety driver on any street, in any analysis of Stephens et al (2016) and Taiebat et al (2018). At the weather, and with pedestrians and human-driven vehicles around. end of the 2010 decade, with the advent of 5G connectivity tech- The main obstacles to overcoming these challenges include: (1) im- nologies making possible highly-coordinated driverless scenarios, proved artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, (2) more coordinated a succession of all-encompassing studies such as Fleming and services and infrastructure (for example, external connectivity to the Singer (2019), Taiebat et al (2019), and Lee and Kockelman (2019) cloud or mobile cellular networks), and (3) policies and regulations appeared, which is proves the common understanding that CAVs to support CAV infrastructure. These challenges have not prevented will have a role in future ITS. experts from forecasting the impact of CAV on energy consumption, a topic of notable analysis in recent years. To this end, it is important See Chapter 6 for a deep analysis of these dimensions. FIGURE 4.1. The Four Technological Innovations in the CAV Paradigm ELECTRIFICATION Electrification refers to the increasing trend in electrical drivelines (the main components that generate power and deliver that power to the road surface), and according to estimations by J.P. Morgan (2018) will represent one-third of all vehicles in 2025 and approximately two-thirds in 2030, hybrid vehicles included. AUTONOMY Autonomy deals with the goal of a vehicle being able to sense its environment and moving safely with little or no human input. In this regard, a recent survey by J.D. Power (2019) shows that automotive and tech- nological industry experts predict the self-driving robo-taxi will not be technically viable until 2025. This survey also anticipates the first fully AVs will be in the consumer market around 2030. In addition, in 2035 10 percent of the vehicles will be AVs. CONNECTIVITY Connectivity alludes to the list of innovative mobile communication technologies, prominently 5G, that will make possible novel and useful driving techniques on the CAV. If past history is indicative of future performance, most wireless air interface technologies have had a lifespan of about 8 to 10 years. However, the case for 4G LTE is still unclear. Back in late 2009, the first commercial LTE network was launched in the city centers of Stockholm and Oslo by TeliaSonera, but according to latest edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report (Jonsson et al 2019), LTE is still growing globally since it achieved markedly prevalence back in 2016. This report also expects that by 2022 LTE will hit its peak globally. After that, Ericsson believes that LTE will decline by the end of 2025, when 5G will cover up to 65 percent of the global population and han- dle 45 percent of global mobile data traffic. SHARING Sharing denotes the paradigm shifting dimension of the CAV as property, from individual privately owned to publicly shared vehicles. Because of its potentially disrupting nature, it is not especially surprising that the transition from personal vehicle ownership to shared driverless mobility will not come quickly. According to a 2016 report by Deloitte on the future of mobility (Corwin et al 2016), the market for personal mobility could transform radically over the next 25 years. The report still predicts about 88 percent per- sonally-owned driver-driven cars of the 2025 market, but envisions the shift happening finally and almost completely, and by 2050, shared mobility will account for 80 percent of the market, especially if steered by the implemented policies. The 5G-Enabled Transport Sector 37 The case of Europe’s 5G corridors 5G corridors make Europe the biggest experiment area rolling out Bulgaria and Serbia continue to expand the Thessaloniki–Sofia– the 5G technology. Within the European 5G vertical strategy, con- Belgrade corridor on the Brenner pass motorway toward Italy. nected and automated driving (CAD) is considered a flagship use case for 5G deployment along European transport paths, in view of In addition to these initiatives, three Horizon 2020 projects were creating complete ecosystems around vehicles beyond the safety launched in November 2018 to conduct large-scale 5G connectivity services targeted by the cooperative intelligent transport system testing and trials for CAD over cross-border corridors, under the (C-ITS) roadmap of Europe. In 2018, the 5G European network signed umbrella of the 5G Public-Private Partnership (5G-PPP). Benefiting further regional agreements on 5G corridors. Following those new from a nearly €50 million funding, for a combined total budget of agreements, a pan-European network of 5G corridors (figure 4.2) €63 million, the three projects cover three 5G cross-border corri- is emerging with hundreds of kilometers of motorways where tests dors (highlighted in figure 4.2): will be conducted up to the stage where a car can operate itself with ► 5G-CARMEN: spans 600 km of roads across an import- a driver present, and under certain conditions (SAE Level 3 auto- ant north–south corridor from Bologna to Munich via the mation). Notable examples include: The early cooperative ITS joint Brenner Pass corridor between Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Vienna; another joint ► 5GCROCO: stretches over highways between Metz, Merzig, corridor announced by France, Germany, and Luxembourg between and Luxembourg, crossing the borders of France, Germany, Luxembourg, Metz and Merzig; followed by Norway, Finland, and and Luxembourg Sweden with the E8 corridor between Tromsø (Norway) and Oulu ► 5G-Mobix: runs along two cross-border corridors between (Finland), and the E18 corridor between Helsinki, Stockholm, and Spain and Portugal, a short corridor between Greece and Oslo; and the Netherlands and Belgium join in with the Rotterdam– Turkey, and six national urban sites in Versailles (France), Antwerp–Eindhoven corridor. Furthermore, work continues on Berlin and Stuttgart (Germany), Eindhoven-Helmond developing corridors between Spain and Portugal, while Greece, (Netherlands), and Espoo (Finland) FIGURE 4.2. European 5G Cross-Border Corridors Source: European Commission 2020. 38 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport These efforts in Europe highlight the importance of regional col- of Things (IoT) on a large scale. This capacity, within logistics man- laboration for advancing technical specifications and requirements agement, will allow for locating all containers, pallets, packages, along with enhancing peer-to-peer learning. Creating regional ob- or other transport units throughout the distribution chain. The servatories or platforms to discuss the implementation of new ITS on-demand transportation service enabled by this live-tracking of at the regional level could also be considered. goods and transport units requires the maximum penetration of third-party logistics (3PL) players, which are typically not well intro- duced in developing countries. Because of their capacity to adapt their equipment and systems quickly, 3PL should prioritize bringing SMART AN D EFFICIENT LOGISTICS 5G technologies into the logistics field. Finally, the impact of auton- omous vehicles may be seen first in the logistics sector, as long-haul trucking presents one of the simplest and most controlled contexts The logistics market is expected to register a compound annual for autonomous vehicle application. growth rate of more than 3 percent in the next three years, reaching a market size of around US$12,256 billion by 2022 (Sonawane 2017). Third-party logistic players must be incorporated in the nation- The movement of goods between the provider and the receiver re- al transport ecosystem. The use of 3PL companies has managed quires accurate goods flow management in order to meet customer to reduce empty miles in logistics from 40 percent to 20 percent requirements and reduce transportation costs. In this context, any (Agenbroad et al 2016). Moreover, the inclusion of 5G massive action that could strengthen the capabilities of logistics will have a machine-type communications in logistics, allowing the real-time significant influence on the sector. monitoring and tracking of transport units, together with the bro- kerage provided by 3PL, is estimated to increase truckers’ revenue The 5G technology incorporates three fundamental dimensions by 15 percent, while costs of shippers could be reduced by up to 70 for increasing logistics efficiency. On the one hand, 5G enables the percent. The impact of 5G on logistics management will be much operation of autonomous vehicles, by land, by sea, or by air. On less without the incorporation of these intermediate players, neces- the other hand, 5G simplifies many communications and signaling sary to maximize the use of transportation resources. processes, and includes a simplified radio configuration, known as Light New Radio (NR), which is precisely designed to reduce costs The use case of logistics can be divided into three components: rail- (US$5 per device) and increase battery life of devices, up to 10 ways, truck transport in roadways, and port management. Analysis years. 5G is specially designed for massive machine-type commu- of these three elements follows. nications (mMTC), allowing what is known as the wireless Internet The 5G-Enabled Transport Sector 39 5G in the rail network With respect to the density of trains in the railway, systems such as the U.S. Positive Train Control (PTC) technology are deployed in In the rail sector, deployment of 5G capacity could bring a number various regions, all with the same function—to automatically stop of benefits, including reliable communications for safer and more a train to prevent train-to-train collisions. The minimum separation efficient operation, the possibility of providing passengers with on- between trains depends on the weight, size, and speed of the train, board broadband multimedia services, and increased capacity of and also on the total latency in the communication chain. With cur- trains in the rail network. rent satellite-based solutions, the latency is up to 20 seconds (Tse 2008); reducing this time to a milliseconds range while increasing In addition, safety-critical train operations will require an updated the reliability to 99.999 percent could have a positive impact in se- technology, as the only cellular technology specifically designed curity and, subsequently, on the efficient use of rail network even for train communications is based on GSM (GSM-R), which will be with unmanned trains. With conventional signaling, this distance obsolete by 2030. Thus, considering the ffive-year time frame for between trains is currently very high, with a low flow rate on the migration of the rail network, the rail industry will need a long-term railway line. 5G will facilitate reducing space between two trains solution by 2025. The International Union of Railways (UIC), the rail- and improve the flow. Only 5G can transfer the large amount of data way standards-setting organization, is already considering a new required to make the proper calculation, since the inhomogeneity standard called the Future Railway Mobile Communications System of trains requires the transfer of thousands of parameters from dif- (FRMCS) that will not only replace the old systems, but also intro- ferent sensors. duce new capabilities consistent with 5G features. This presents a strong opportunity case for 5G to take over this replacement, as Conditional maintenance is another important matter. Once all it will allow the widespread deployment of IoT in rail, and will en- metrics collected from sensors are collected in real time, train sta- able real-time monitoring of energy and asset information for the tus will be softly monitored, resulting in the prompt and on-demand whole network, including ticket-office queues, real-time train load reparation of train assets. rates and information to better distribute passengers, rolling stock, power grid, peak electricity consumption, or wear of axles or other technical components of the trains. 5G is necessary to monitor and 5G for trucking manage the increase in the amounts of data and connected devic- es, as current technologies lack the required capacity. Moreover, 5G 5G is expected to improve trucking in two ways: by increasing effi- would enable railway operator sensors and actuators to be com- ciency, and enabling real-time monitoring and tracking. bined with other smart-city specific sensors, which would improve Trucks are especially well-suited to benefit from platooning (box 4.2 the system’s collective intelligence. discusses a platooning trial in Japan), where one truck follows close- ly behind another, creating a convoy that moves simultaneously. BOX 4.2. Japan Puts Truck Platooning to the Test Since 2017, Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications has encouraged 5G system trials, including a collaborative trial led by SoftBank on truck platooning. Truck platooning involves multiple trucks driving together in a convoy, controlled as a unit by using intervehicle communica- tion. Globally, several tests to implement truck platooning are underway; Volvo is one of the leaders around this use case. Several social issues can be resolved through use of truck platooning. Platooning enables trucks to drive closer together to reduce wind resistance, which can reduce fuel consumption and reduce CO2 emissions. Evidence indicates a platoon of three trucks traveling 4 m apart at 80 km/h con- sumes 15 percent less fuel. If the distance between trucks is reduced to 2 m, the fuel consumption could be reduced by 25 percent. Reducing the distance between vehicles can also increase the traffic capacity of roads, mitigating congestion and further reducing CO2 emissions. This specific trial in Japan tested the ultra-low latency radio capabilities of 5G for two use cases: (1) communication between vehicles involved in platooning, and (2) remote monitoring and operation of the entire truck platoon. The trial results confirmed that 5G commu- nications met the requirements for advanced truck platooning. 40 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport The lead truck makes decisions for the overall platoon, while the 5G in port management subsequent trucks automatically react and adapt their movements to follow the leader’s actions. The closer trucks are to each oth- Finally, regarding port management, although only limited progress er, the better the energy efficiency; however, maintaining such has been made in few use cases, two initial 5G tests have been im- distances requires increasingly critical vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) plemented in the port of Rotterdam (Netherlands) and Bari (Italy).1 communications, mostly in terms of reliability and latency. With The test in Rotterdam focused on the massive deployment of wire- the low latency and reliability inherent in 5G communications, the less sensors, allowing for the real-time monitoring of the movement distance between trucks could be reduced to less than 1 meter. of goods and the production of industrial processes in the port. Under such conditions, reductions in air friction may reduce fuel To increase sensor reliability, a 5G dual band network (operating consumption by up to 16 percent (ERTICO 2016). A study by Scania in the 700 MHz and 3,500 MHz bands) was deployed in the port. finds a slightly lower benefit, down to 12 percent (Liang et al 2015), The test included analysis of the role of ultra-high definition vid- still a significant savings. eo surveillance, alongside AI, was analyzed for the detection and management of loading and unloading cargo. Results indicated Despite the close distances involved, 5G-enabled platooning offers that maintenance was better predicted, and the additional infor- potential safety benefits as well. With a response time much faster mation given to the inspectors allowed almost automatic failure than the human reaction time, such a configuration improves safety detection. Finally, unmanned robots were used to inspect gas leaks. by making braking automatic and simultaneous, avoiding an accor- Substituting the human process with a machine-assisted process dion effect and, thus, rear-end collisions. All in all, 5G platooning increased the inspection’s accuracy and reliability, in addition to can improve the efficiency of highway traffic, and reduce traffic jams making the process safer. In addition, human inspectors were and pollution. equipped with an advanced communication helmet that connected the team via video with experts who could offer timely recommen- This is likely one of the first applications of 5G-enabled transport dations on the any needed repairs. According to the inspectors, this to come to market, first along highways and dedicated corridors, advanced connectivity reduced the decision time from a few days and subsequently in more complex environments. Current state- to a few minutes. of-the-art platooning technologies can be classified as SAE Level 2 driving automation, with communications standards expected to be completed by 2021 and market introduction expected by 2023. 5G in aviation Further evolution toward SAE automation Levels 3 and 4 are expect- ed to come to market by 2030, in which platooning could operate Despite the wide-ranging impacts of 5G on the transport sector, in complex scenarios, including cities. By that time, the deployment applications for aviation will likely be limited to issues of unmanned of the 5G should be complete. This is a real game-changing model. aerial vehicles (UAVs) and the lower skies. While the aviation sec- Having trucks working for 24 hours would be possible with a three- tor is developing more sophisticated communication technologies, truck platoon, whereby the three drivers work on a rotating basis, they will not be based on 5G standards since commercial flights op- with one controlling the platoon while the other two drivers rest. erate at altitudes outside the coverage of cellular technologies, and This would be possible with low 5G coverage with truck platooning over oceans where such technologies are not deployed. based on V2V communications. For better results, the drone industry requires a quick drone-to-com- With respect to real-time monitoring of trucks, 5G offers enor- puter (or drone-to-cloud) data transfer to decrease data processing mous potential. Already in place in some countries (such as the time, and therefore, it requires a low-latency connection for live electronic logging devices recently mandated in the United States) view or live video streaming. In terms of UAVs, 5G may have an im- using 3 and 4G technologies, the introduction of 5G will allow for pact along two key channels: (1) low latency will allow for better a dramatic increase in capacity. For instance, the interconnection traffic management in crowded airspace and urban environments, of a huge number of sensors and low-latency connectivity would enabling UAVs to respond more nimbly to remote instructions and allow real-time decision making, potentially stopping a truck be- adjust their routes based on changing conditions and air traffic; fore mechanical failure could cause a crash or detecting abnormal and (2) greatly expanded bandwidth will enable the streaming of behavior in the driver, signaling it may be time for a stop. The insur- high-resolution video back to a base station. Such bandwidth en- ance industry could also deploy diagnostic plug-ins to collect data sures better sensors, navigation, and guidance systems which all about truck-driver behavior, under the condition of reduced fees. lead to reliable, time-sensitive drone platforms. Moreover, 5G will also provide better geolocation tracking thanks to the use of beamforming pilot signals, which, together with assisted GPS solutions, could allow better tracking in narrow streets, tun- nels, or under other situations in which the GPS signal is often lost. The 5G-Enabled Transport Sector 41 EVOLVING UR BAN MOBILITY AND PUBLIC TRANS PORT The deployment of 5G wireless technologies will allow cities and cameras that focus mainly on traffic management, without taking regions around the world to modernize and make their transport advantage of the increasingly dense mobile and vehicle data. and mobility more efficient, improving public transport operations and planning, even introducing dynamic transport planning, reduc- ing traffic congestion, and giving much more space for cyclists and Developing an integrated mobility system pedestrians (increasing social distancing in times of pandemic). 5G Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is the concept or idea of integrating will also enhance users’ safety and onboard experiences while com- various forms of transport services into a single mobility service muting, improve targeting of users with special needs, and generate accessible on demand, including mass-transit public transport ser- more revenues by increasing public transport ridership or through vices. For the user, MaaS offers added value with a single application a best use of MaaS platforms—as in the cases of Jelbi in Berlin and (or several apps competing among each other) to provide access to Whim in Helsinki. With 5G, cities could provide public transport mobility, with a single payment channel instead of multiple ticketing users with better information, single payment and ticketing proce- and payment operations. In order to meet a customer’s request, a dures for several transport modes, and increased onboard wireless MaaS operator facilitates a diverse menu of transport options, be connectivity. they public transport, ride-, car-, or bike-sharing, taxi, car rental In many cities, a number of innovations have already been in- or lease, or a combination of options. A successful MaaS service tegrated into the planning of mobility systems, for instance: (1) also brings new business models and ways to organize and operate georeferenced user information to minimize travel times for indi- the various transport options, with advantages such as access to vidual or collective motorized transport (public or private); (2) improved user and demand information and new opportunities to crowd sourcing with advances in algorithms (big data, analytics, serve unmet demand for transport operators. The aim of MaaS is to or machine learning, and IoT); (3) larger storage and processing be the best value proposition for its users, providing an alternative capacity (especially with cloud processing), which has allowed to the private use of cars that could be more convenient, more sus- breakthroughs in the efficiency and effectiveness of urban mobility; tainable, and cheaper, while liberating public space for other users, and (4) AI programs on integrated mobility control centers that an- such as public transport, cyclists, or pedestrians.4 alyze mobility patterns and provide instant solutions for improving MaaS has many benefits for cities and their citizens if well-regulat- planning and traffic flows. ed, improving ridership habits and numbers, reducing congestion, Such innovations can provide support for establishing technol- increasing transit network efficiency, and increasing public space. ogy-based integrated management systems able to process The implementation of the MaaS concept may be even more im- data coming from billions of devices and to improve the efficien- pactful following the COVID-19 pandemic—with public transport cy of public transport, ease congestion, and share transport and vehicles reducing their load capacity to ensure social distancing— traffic information among users. While technologically possible, making the need for efficiency more crucial than ever, if regulated enhanced and flexible institutional coordination and efficient reg- to disincentive use of private cars, MaaS would provide users with ulations among transport stakeholders is key to deploying such cheaper mobility or better service for the same tariff when well-in- systems.2 Otherwise, they will continue to operate separately, with tegrated with efficient public transport systems and with other a private-owned system driven by profits, which does not provide private-owned networks, resulting in reduced emissions as more benefits for the city as a whole. Only by ensuring the coordinated in- users rely on public transit components or CAVs in a MaaS network. tegration of a city’s public transport systems, as some models have Real-time information about the myriad of transport solutions shown,3 will the MaaS concept become a reality (Busvine 2019), by (metro, suburban rail, bus, minibuses, docked bike sharing, floating leveraging a variety of transport modes to deliver efficient mobili- car-, bike-, and moto-sharing services, floating or docked scoot- ty for urban residents. Already important in the 4G era, transport ers, cable cars, taxis, etc.) and their integration is key for driving system integration will be ever more crucial with the roll out of 5G. development of sustainable modes. Making this happen requires Unfortunately, many cities are not using the available innovations better physical and digital interconnection among transport modes to improve urban mobility patterns, at least not on a mass scale. and better regulation of the transport demand from users. 5G has a Many transport agencies and public transport companies continue role to play in providing accurate data from users that will allow the to rely on old technologies and distrust investments in technology transport operators to modify their offerings according to chang- because of previous failures. Today, many cities still have control ing demand. MaaS platform apps for transport systems where all centers (if they exist at all) that rely only or mostly upon street options and modes are integrated can only grow in efficiency and dynamic demand responsiveness when more capacity for data 42 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport is available, especially for users on the move; this is main reason 5G and the public transport value proposition why 5G will essentially push for more—and more competition be- tween—MaaS platforms. Onboard enhanced connectivity will allow commuters to enjoy en- tertainment or work as if they were in their houses, thus reducing Thanks to this surge in efficiency, the adoption of 5G by the urban the perception of cost of time. In the short to medium term, this mobility sector will likely lead to new players creating more jobs provides a clear advantage for public transport over private cars. in cities, generating opportunities for young graduates to develop However, with the imminent availability of CAVs and consequent their careers in the connected mobility industry. For example, the liberation of the driver, this dynamic may disappear. Enhanced proliferation of 5G in transport applications will likely spur creation connectivity onboard public transport vehicles will also enhance of new market players that will become third-party virtual trans- security onboard, as vehicles could share the real-time video feed port service providers (for example, MaaS platforms competing with the city’s operations control center or service providers— among each other and with city-owned MaaS platforms) similar potentially capturing sexual violence, robberies, assault, or other to how mobile virtual network operators changed the telecom violence, or a medical emergency—and enabling the timely dis- space. These virtual transport service providers could leverage the patch of emergency services, if needed. This recommendation has network slicing feature of 5G networks to offer specialized and cus- been highlighted in several reports, including the World Bank study tomized services—especially MaaS apps in cities and eCommerce on women’s mobility in Latin America (Dominguez et al 2020). With delivery options. For example, large megaregions in emerging 5G enhanced connectivity, the control center, police, or any other countries with successful MaaS platforms can adapt the platforms service could respond faster in case of emergency if the bus driv- elsewhere, potentially creating a unicorn5 that will support the dig- er or rider pushes the panic button, as defined in the appropriate ital economy. These ideas could develop further than the MaaS in protocols. This will promote a safer perception of public transport, urban environments and virtual transport service providers can be especially for women or groups in vulnerable situations (Metea created to serve national or regional markets of interurban passen- 2019). ger transport services. Most importantly, 5G would enable large amounts of data from mo- In addition, the growth in 5G-enabled smart connectivity may im- bile transport users through creation of dynamic transport demand prove users’ ability to impact their urban mobility experiences. It management tools, such as the continually evolving origin–destina- will facilitate the collection of user feedback on the quality of pub- tion (OD) matrix that shows almost real-time transport demand and lic transport, moving from face-to-face surveys into new ways of allows operators to adjust the transport options offered to users. considering users’ opinion, as the new players in mobility (and else- Cities already use cell phone data when developing OD matrices where) have demonstrated. For instance, ride-hailing customers as part of urban mobility planning, but 5G offers more data, and evaluate drivers at the conclusion of each ride, and the feedback in real-time. In parallel, enhanced monitoring and control of the is used to give preference to well-reviewed drivers. Already being public transport fleet would improve transport operators’ ability to implemented under current 4G technologies, such services will cer- adjust options and plan services by analyzing data collected from tainly expand under 5G; for instance, by using improved location connected users; this data would then become the best proxy for tracking and a massive amount of IoT sensors to identify users of transport sector users, helping to create the dynamic transport various transport modes (including cyclists, pedestrians, or users demand matrix in any city. The first apps or chat bots designed of free public transport options) and by collecting feedback on user to understand users’ future travel needs have already appeared experience. Moreover, ensuring that socially vulnerable people or during the COVID-19 pandemic, a global experience that perfectly those with disabilities can communicate effectively with transport illustrates the increasing need for a dynamic OD matrix; in the near agencies and operators is key for addressing their particular chal- future, 5G will bring exponentially more relevant data. lenges. This, in fact, would allow better targeting of public transport subsidies for people in economic need. Effectively capturing users’ 5G will offer transit operators thousands of minute-by-minute data opinions through fast and reliable technology can also support the gatherings, with information on users’ transport needs and the improvement of physical infrastructure. Through applications such best-suited modes for each user, even with large numbers of active as geofencing, audits to help measure women’s safety can be facil- users in the system at the same time. This data will help increase itated, providing real-time feedback by targeting specific areas in system utilization and allow for dynamic routing and scheduling public spaces. This can be particularly useful in supporting environ- of transport services, which is even more crucial during and after mental design focused on violence prevention to increase women’s public health crises—such as the COVID-19 pandemic and its re- safety. quirement for social distancing—when many essential workers must still rely on public transport to get to work. In times when buses and trains are running at lower occupancy, better demand management and on-time planning can be the key to keeping cities and transport systems running. This will particularly benefit certain The 5G-Enabled Transport Sector 43 population groups, such as low-income women living in peripheri- reduce the need for articulated or other special vehicles, thus in- cal areas where the few and unreliable transport services put them creasing the road vehicle capacity and providing substantial energy at risk—from longer wait times in unsafe areas or from interactions savings for transport operators. The same can be applied to cars or with informal modes of transport, which often cover an unsatisfied trucks, and with autonomous cars in the longer term, smart traffic demand (Dominguez et al 2105). management systems would be able to prioritize public transport and non-motorized transport (pedestrians and cyclists) (Botello In relation to commuting, enhanced MaaS and public transport, et al 2019). The improved traffic lights systems will help cities de- 5G connectivity will help reduce traffic congestion, especially if the ploy MaaS and provide more time and priority for active users of 5G can also support investment and deployment of smart traffic both MaaS and public transport, promoting these transport modes lights and other vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications. while at the same time reducing congestion, delivering additional Congestion could be reduced by 40 percent, saving drivers and productivity and quality-of-life for citizens, and most importantly, operators in medium-sized cities approximately US$100 million an- freeing up public space for the citizens to use. nually (Al Amine et al 2018). If upgraded with intelligent transport services available to cars, traffic management systems will be the Lastly, regarding the multimodal journey planners for intercity or main tool for reducing congestion, thanks to 5G’s ultra-fast speeds, international trips, 5G would also support the capacity of users to as buses would be able to platoon in “convoys” if the demand is access multimodal trip websites allowing them to book door-to- needed. This, in turn, would increase standardization of buses and door trips. 44 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport 5G and the deployment of non-motorized information will increase the users’ perception of safety and will transport also provide good quality onboard entertainment content or wire- less access to work, an added value over other transport modes. With COVID-19, many cities are, more than ever, encouraging cit- izens to use bicycles, creating many emergency cycle paths and The indiscriminate use of individual transport increases conges- even building more lines for the long term. As explained above, 5G tion in cities, creating issues for all road users (including bus users can support the increase of active transport modes in the city via if buses operate in mixed traffic lanes with other vehicles) and smart traffic management and traffic light systems. 5G-based aug- increasing emissions. The development of CAVs could only exacer- mented reality (AR) can also enable tools that will make cycling in bate this challenge if their proliferation erodes the value offered by the city safer, as the AR will inform cyclists of dangers in the same public transport, while private ownership of cars remains the norm way vehicle-to-everything (V2X)-equipped cars would alert the and congestion is not regulated. Currently, most private vehicles driver of potential dangers. This will increase the perception of safe- are owned by single users, and despite vehicle owners paying prop- ty and could eventually increase bicycle ridership. In addition, bikes erty taxes on car ownership, such taxes are insufficient to address can even connect directly with emergency services, for instance, via the negative externalities created by private cars, build and main- an e-call service for urban cyclists. tain roads, and support other mobility options. Many cities handle congestion through license plate restrictions, which have been 5G will also encourage more use of peer-sharing of information, shown to be of limited benefit for long-term regulation of urban with the development of more cyclist-specific smart mobility plat- congestion (Cantillo and Ortúzar 2014). Regulators will need to find forms.6 Bikers on these platforms can upload information on road ways to move from control (the plate mechanism) to command (for conditions, building sites, or unexpected incidents such as road example, the congestion tool), thus managing more effectively the accidents, which the platform then shares with other cyclists; 5G transport demand. They will also need to explore incentive schemes would enable the smartphone or the smart bicycle to upload this that allow for an increase in the use of collective and active modes information independently. in general, that once again depend on the business model adopted by the government—and, ultimately, on governance. Indeed, 5G Finally, 5G can support the new mobility transport modes by po- has a role to play in deploying these new models by allowing a mas- tentially skyrocketing the use of either bicycle or scooter sharing sive amount of data to travel more quickly between a huge number schemes. By making these schemes more interoperable with the of sensors, the cloud, and across various databases to enable and other modes of public transport and by providing operators with subsequently enforce new congestion restriction models, including much more detailed data on current and planned trips, services can the potential to restrict the amount of CAVs entering cities with the be more supportive of the integrated MaaS offering. ultimate goal of reducing the urban space used by vehicles while increasing the space available to pedestrians and other modes. Smart connectivity for public transport operations Regarding governments and the affordability to finance deployment and traffic control of the 5G network and the related ITS services, public-private col- Currently, many cities do not have a proper control center for public laboration is seen as one of the main enablers to make use of the transport and traffic, or one that is integrated with digital technolo- infrastructure sharing concept. Taxing the negative externalities gies. In any successful control center, the main benefit comes from such as pollution and use of road space for private cars could be integrating all players—including emergency services such as the one of the modes for partially financing deployment of the infra- fire department, civil workers, police, bus agents, traffic agents, structure needed to advance digital transport and mobility in urban etc.—in the same site or at least under the same digital or cloud environments. The way forward includes using the “dig once” policy platform. Expanding this potential, 5G supports integration of a for infrastructure sharing, creating a network owned or regulated much wider cloud of sensors (such as those on infrastructure, pub- by the public sector to allow different uses, along with cost shar- lic transport, connected vehicles, or mobile phones), all actively ing. Some cities have started to think ahead on implementing these gathering and sharing larger amounts of data instantly. This enables types of solutions, focusing on innovation-friendly regulations. smarter monitoring and enforcement across modes and services. As explained previously, 5G will enable the deployment of many V2I The ability to effectively manage larger loads of data is key even if systems, which could offer a strong case for infrastructure shar- the entire control center system is integrated in the cloud alone, ing. Such systems will connect, for example, vehicles with traffic rather than at a physical location. lights and other infrastructure and services, providing information Integrating control centers will help ensure effective fleet manage- on parking spots, speed limits, sensors to signal wrong-way traf- ment that benefits users. 5G has a role to play in this by sending, fic, restricted areas, limited use areas, or loading zones, potentially recurrently, the transport vehicle’s GPS location and other informa- providing tools for reserving such spaces if needed. In addition to tion (loading factor, speed, dangerous situation onboard, etc.). This the traffic light systems being modernized as mentioned above, all The 5G-Enabled Transport Sector 45 urban furniture (bus stops, traffic lights, or street lighting poles) can spaces will still be needed; however, these spaces can be better serve as a host for installing the neutral host 5G receptors in dense- managed by using real-time information to identify empty on-street ly populated areas in cities (Tomás 2019), where the 5G will require parking spaces, adjusting parking prices depending on demand, ultra-dense networks. An upcoming study in Sao Paulo, Brazil, will and allowing drivers to reserve parking spots—directing the driver analyze the financial and technical feasibility of deploying the 5G to an open space, identified by a low-cost 5G sensor on a street network along with the smart traffic lights and traffic management lamp. Combined with the smart metering systems already deployed systems. in some areas, advanced wireless connectivity could increase parking revenue by up to 30 percent, while also helping reduce In regards to traffic management systems, many cities are creat- congestion and idling (Woetzel et al 2018). ing more space for cyclists and pedestrians in downtown areas and in many neighborhoods, by restricting the access for private The ability to identify and reserve open parking spaces for car-shar- cars to neighborhood residents only. Zone access control, together ing users and last-mile freight logistics services through use of with enforcement of traffic lights violation and possible establish- low-cost sensors and apps for the loading and unloading space ment of congestion charging areas or a low-emissions zones, can management, can increase parking revenue, reduce the demand be easily done with current technology; however, 5G will improve from private cars by reducing the available options, and indeed re- license-plate recognition and will provide much faster response to duce the time delivery vehicles need to find parking, which both any violation, thus reducing the number of cars entering restricted reduces congestion and benefits all commuters and residents by or congested areas. This technology can also assist urban freight encouraging only essential, economy-boosting traffic downtown. delivery in booking parking spaces and increase their productivi- ty when delivering, through smart freight space management, Finally, in relation to the affordability of 5G for users, public needed more than ever with the expected substantial increase in transport operators, and government authorities, adopting the eCommerce. technology features available with 5G can reduce operational costs and maintain affordable tariffs by facilitating more efficient, better For this reason, cities should use 5G to reduce public space dedi- services in response to real-time demands. In addition, improved cated to cars, making public parking areas available for car sharing, demand-management of ticketing and smart-card systems helps for bike sharing, for scooters, for loading and unloading of goods, identify people who are most economically or socially vulnerable, and most importantly, increasing space for use by the public or and helps ensure they receive tariff subsidies to make their trans- even the private sector (restaurants, terraces, etc.). Shifting the use port expenses more affordable. of urban space, together with the decrease in work-related com- muting—thanks to the increase in teleworking, or working from home—can have a huge impact in the way the cities are organized NOTES geographically. Cities can grow several sets of new urban centers, 1. For details on the Bari (Italy) 5G project, see: https://www.telecomitalia. providing easier access to services and jobs for people that live in com/en/press-archive/market/2017/NS-5G-Bari-e-Matera.html. neighborhoods offering few job opportunities to residents. The new 2. For more information, see Here Mobility’s “Smart Urban Mobility: A mobility patterns enabled by 5G’s enhanced connectivity—if the Quick Start Guide.” https://mobility.here.com/learn/smart-city-mobility/ city decision makers apply favorable territorial and mobility poli- smart-urban-mobility-quick-start-guide. cies — can transform the city from a radial central business district 3. Vilnius, Vienna, Berlin, Helsinki, along with some other cities, have fully (CBD) shape into a multicentric shape of many neighborhoods con- integrated MaaS functioning platforms. nected by public transport, where pedestrians and cyclists enjoy ample public space, thus increasing the number of small-business 4. Definition provided by the Mobility as a Service Alliance: https:// jobs. Again, this is one of the main comments reflected in the study maas-alliance.eu/. about women’s mobility (Dominguez et al 2020), that many wom- 5. Unicorn denotes start-up companies with a market value larger than en were reluctant to accept jobs located at long distances from US$1 billion. their places of residence. Acknowledging the urban model will only 6. Smart Cyclist-specific mobility platforms have recently been piloted in change with the advent of connected mobility, increasing the space Cologne, Germany; Porto, Portugal; and Trikala, Greece. for pedestrians, cyclists, and public transport users can have a deep impact in the way citizens move themselves and, in the end, transform the urban and economic fabric. 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The 5G-Enabled Transport Sector 47 05 5G ADOPTION, STANDARDIZATION, AND TIMELINES 48 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport The transport sector, especially autonomous vehicles, is frequently identified as one of the key areas where 5G will have a major impact. This potential is demonstrated through significant work in the sector, with ongoing efforts from established automotive, telecom, and technology companies as well as a host of startups. As their respective approaches differ significantly, an eventual rationalization of the market will likely be required, especially as the nature of transport implies that such connected vehicles will move from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. To allow free movement of goods and people, city- or country-specific solutions will need to be integrated with those of neighboring cities and countries. In October 2018, Verizon, in the United States (U.S.) launched the access is far from the norm in many countries, with a lack of broad- first 5G services based on fixed wireless access, that is, the end user band mobile access in many areas. About 40 percent of the world’s was a fixed receiver and the 5G connectivity was used to provide population can only access 2G services (Grijpink et al 2020), while wireless Internet at home. In April 2019, SK Telecom in the Republic twenty countries or territories have no access to 4G services at all. of Korea became the first operator to offer 5G as a mobile ser- Although we are already seeing some countries with very ambitious vice. Today, nearly 5 million subscribers in the Republic of Korea 5G deployment plans, such as Republic of Korea, the United States, are 5G-supported and the network carries about 20 percent of the Japan, and China, analysis of the past 4G deployment process al- country’s total mobile traffic. Still the Republic of Korea’s 5G cover- lows us to estimate 5G deployment in developing countries will age hovers around 50 percent, the highest coverage in the world. likely start around the end of 2021 or the beginning of 2022. This A year has passed since the availability of the first 5G-enabled process will last approximately two or three years, ending in 2025, handheld devices and only a few countries have established com- unless current technological tensions affect the global production mercial service, mainly the Republic of Korea, United States, Japan, of 5G devices and infrastructures. China, and some countries in Europe. From this group, only the U.S. is deploying in the low band of spectrum for nationwide coverage (T-Mobile covers 200 million people), and in the millimeter wave We will see the beginning of the band for hotspots such as New York City. 5G deployment in a large number Looking at low- or middle-income countries, only a few are run- of World Bank client countries ning trials, such as Kenya, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Such advanced between 2021 and 2022, with deployment generalized by 2025 5G Adoption, Standardization, and Timelines 49 C-V2X versus WAVE In both cases, the U.S. and the EU seem to be ready to regulate considering industry requests. The decision is certainly complex. With respect to the regulation of cellular-based vehicle-to-every- On the one hand DSRC–WAVE is a mature technology and could be thing communications (C-V2X) in the world, the situation remains used in the near term to start saving lives. On the other hand, it fluid as of the drafting of this report. In 1999 the United States de- only operates in short range and, therefore, requires a significant cided to allocate a portion of the 5.9 gigahertz (GHz) spectrum for investment and number of roadside units (RSU) to be deployed dedicated short-range communications (DSRC), with wireless ac- to guarantee vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) services—and is an cess in vehicular environments (WAVE) as the selected technology. expensive option from the operation point of view. Cellular-based Although a proposal was developed to require the technology’s V2X, on the other hand, offers better efficiency and could count on implementation by 2025, this proposal never came into practice. the support of a pre-existing cellular network. It is also expected The U.S. government is considering the option of opening the 5.9 to offer reduced deployment expenditures, presenting significant GHz band for other purposes, allowing for the use of C-V2X tech- mid-term benefits. Moreover, since April 2018 all new vehicles in nologies, such as 5G NR. Also, the allocation of additional bands is Europe must be able to connect to the emergency services in case under study. To date, this research study is still ongoing. of a crash (eCall), the cellular chipset is already installed in many vehicles, and therefore, in terms of system design, it is better to in- The European Union (EU) followed a singular track. In March 2019 clude the V2X communications capacities in the same unit. In fact, the European Parliament opted for following the same approach as the Qualcomm chipset 9150, currently being installed in new vehi- the U.S. government and chose DSRC as the technology to be en- cles for C-V2X, does not currently support the cellular link, though forced in Europe by 2025. However, the European Council, which it is likely evolving in this direction. holds veto capacity over the European Parliament, decided in July of 2019 to force neutrality, allowing the incorporation of the Certainly C-V2X has a strong support from industry. The 5G C-V2X technologies, including long-term evolution (LTE) in its ver- Automotive Association (5GAA), a group formed by automakers and sion Release 14 or 5G new radio (NR) in its version Release 16, to be telecom operators, openly supports the choice of C-V2X. The in- alternative technologies for vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communi- dustry is so certain both the U.S. and the EU will accommodate the cations. The mandate from the European Council to the European connected vehicle through cellular technologies that several pilot Parliament sought to modify the March regulation; however, no final tests have occurred in recent years. In 2016, BMW, Ericsson, and SK decision has been made. Telecom made the first 5G trials with moving vehicles up to 160 ki- lometers per hour (km/h). In 2017 AT&T, Ford, Qualcomm and Nokia FIGURE 5.1. Spectrum Allocation to Date Regulation as of June 2020 700 Mhz 5 GHz 60 GHz USA 5850 MHz 5925 MHz Europe 5855 MHz 5925 MHz 63 GHz 64GHz Japan 755.5 MHz 764.5 MHz 5770 MHz 5859 MHz China 5905 MHz 5925 MHz Australia, Korea, Singapore 5855MHz 5925 MHz ITS safety For future IT application ITS non-safety Control channel 50 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport completed the first world trial of C-V2X in San Diego. Panasonic, Clearly, the current uncertainties on the use of spectrum and tech- Ford, and Qualcomm made similar tests in 2018 in Colorado. In nologies in most of the world are not good for the development of 2018 the EU funded three European projects dedicated to the 5G the CAV. In fact, full rollout has been frozen by the lack of clarity connected vehicle. on whether 5G (through C-V2X) or WAVE will emerge as the final technology of choice for V2X communications. The delay also stems C-V2X technology has been available for LTE in Release 14 since from doubts about the business models. However, since manu- June 2017. However, the development of its application in 5G NR factures can make systems to leverage either technology, as they is still not completed. Despite the Release 16, the C-V2X descrip- utilize the same 5.9 GHz bandwidth, a clear decision is needed. In tion was completed in December 2019, and will be available in June addition, as the two technologies have different capacities, the de- 2020 when the full standard is available. sign of vehicle systems and decision algorithms will depend on the With respect to the status of the spectrum allocation in the world, technology chosen. Only once these questions of spectrum alloca- only a few regions have allocated spectrum for vehicular commu- tion and technological solutions come into focus, and 5G coverage nications, with some consensus on the use the 5.875 to 5.905 GHz becomes widespread, will the promise of autonomous vehicles be- band for intelligent transport systems (ITS). The lack of definition gin to be realized, thanks in large part to the improved comfort and from many countries, and discrepancies between countries in the better performance of safety mechanisms. specific band where an allocation has been made, negatively affects Finally, the cross-sectoral nature of the upcoming changes, is the ability of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to imple- encouraging the formation of new partnerships. As explained ment V2X technologies and also limits the potential to apply an previously, the Fifth Generation Automobile Association (5GAA) economy of scale. Japan, for instance, opted to allocate a portion illustrates the need to join and coordinate efforts between auto- of the spectrum in 5.7 GHz band, not coinciding with the U.S. or EU makers and telecom operators, also important since the use of option, and in the 700 MHz band. The current status of the spec- 5G technology will require extensive rollout of 5G access points to trum adoption is represented in figure 5.1. enable autonomous vehicles to operate outside narrow coverage In all cases the spectrum allocated for V2V modes of ITS is unli- zones. A decision on who owns and operates such technology will censed, and therefore its use is not conditioned to spectrum be a key consideration, with different options on the table. auctions and governments are not expected to receive income from its allocation. It is also true that automotive OEMs indicate the avail- able spectrum in the 5.9 GHz band is not enough for Day 3 services. R EFER ENCES In this sense, and being technically required, some business mod- Grijpink, Ferry, Eric Kutcher, Alexandre Ménard, Sree Ramaswamy, Davide Schiavotto, els are based on the assumption that a portion of the conventional James Manyika, Michael Chui, Rob Hamill, and Emir Okan. 2020. “Connected cellular spectrum, owned by mobile network operators, will have to World: An Evolution in Connectivity Beyond the 5G Revolution.” McKinsey be used, incurring costs as it has been allocated and auctioned for Global Institute Discussion Paper. McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey. com/industries/technology-media-and-telecommunications/our-insights/ private use. This is a big challenge for governments, which have to connected-world-an-evolution-in-connectivity-beyond-the-5G-revolution. balance the necessary investment, use of spectrum, and adequate business models so that 5G arrives appropriately and as quickly as possible to the transport sector. 5G Adoption, Standardization, and Timelines 51 06 IMPACTS OF 5G-ENABLED TRANSPORT 52 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport The benefits of 5G in the transport sector can be approached from diverse points of view, and consensus holds that 5G will have a positive impact on the economy. Furthermore, due to its unique low-latency feature, 5G will enable the full deployment of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and is therefore expected to significantly reduce fuel consumption and road fatalities. With respect to logistics, the possibility of expanding the tracing capacity and means of transporting goods will increase transport efficiency. Finally, with regard to public transport, 5G is expected to boost the Mobility as a Service (MaaS) concept (even beyond city limits), better manage fleets, adapt transport to the real locations of people and their mobility needs, and improve provision of multimedia services along passenger routes. Providing connectivity to the underground, or allowing a large vol- ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POVERTY ume of passengers to consume high-speed data in the same space are challenges that only 5G can face with guarantees of success. Furthermore, the possibility of connecting surveillance cameras in A recent report published by Ericsson estimates that 5G will con- urban or intercity transport, as well as connecting the sensors of tribute US$700 billion dollars to the world economy in 2030 public transport vehicles, will greatly improve public transport se- (Ericsson 2019). Of this total, 31 percent is estimated to have a di- curity and fleet management. Such technologies will also create new rect relationship with transport. For some sectors, such as logistics, policy tools for decision makers, such as enabling the deployment a compound annual growth rate of 76 percent is expected. of intelligent transport system (ITS) technologies for the automated collection of road-user fees based on negative externalities (use of Considering direct and indirect impacts on the macroeconomy, 5G urban space and GHG emissions), which will improve their ability to is estimated to increase the global gross domestic product (GDP) implement and finance targeted strategies for reducing congestion, by 5.4 percent by 2030 (Ericsson 2019). This implies, under the carbon emissions, and other transport-driven externalities. current value of the world’s GDP of US economy of US$85.91 tril- lion dollars,1 5G will have an estimated impact of US$4.64 trillion Impacts of 5G-Enabled Transport 53 on potential global sales activity across multiple industrial sectors avoided by removing the human factor. AVs play a fundamental role by 2030. Other more long-term predictions place the impact of here, in the move toward fewer road fatal crashes. 5G at US$13.2 trillion dollars by 2035, of which 5.4 percent would be directly related to transportation (Raconteur 2020). Potential Connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) are expected to increase creation of unicorns in logistics, MaaS, and infrastructure-sharing road safety by removing the driver from the equation, thus reducing management can drive huge investments and high salaries to cit- the element of human error, which is responsible for up to an esti- ies where those companies will evolve. And with emerging cities mated 94 percent of all crashes today. If such estimates are correct, presenting even greater challenges, if regulation can enable inno- and the introduction of connected autonomous driving can reduce vation, successful companies might blossom in middle-income collisions to such an extent, this implies AV technologies could save countries rather than in already developed countries. up to 1.3 million lives, more than US$4 trillion in GDP losses, hun- dreds of thousands of pedestrian deaths, and tens of millions of However, the potential impact of 5G-enabled transport on poverty people from serious injuries. and the bottom 40 percent could be more mixed. As elaborated in the discussion on employment below, the introduction of 5G into Increasingly, cooperative intelligent transport systems (C-ITS) fa- the transport sector will likely displace a wide range of workers, cilitate communications between connected vehicles and their from truck drivers, to factory workers, data entry clerks, informal surroundings, including infrastructure. C-ITS can detect the flow of transit operators, motorcycle taxi drivers, and many more. These traffic, its speed, and density. The information collected by sensors jobs will be replaced by new jobs requiring new skills in new loca- and vehicles can then be used to signal vehicles about speed lim- tions, presenting challenges for those currently employed in these its, help determine whether to open or close traffic lanes, and help jobs. Conversely, if well regulated, the efficiency gains promised by avert accidents. These vehicles come equipped with sophisticat- 5G could accrue to those most reliant on strained public transport ed onboard sensors, cameras, GPS, radar, and safety systems that networks, allowing better access to jobs and services, lower trans- can capture information and process it in real time, thus reducing port costs, and even modify the urban economic geography in cities the impact of accidents. Building on the smart video technologies in the long term to distribute jobs equally. available today, the increased bandwidth offered by 5G will enable a vast network of connected sensors, including both vehicle and road-network cameras. Combined with the processing power of edge computing, intelligent systems will be able to, for example, use vehicle and surrounding video data for predictive routing, real-time ROAD SAFETY road hazard and accident alerts, and much more. Smart vehicles could, furthermore, communicate with cyclists, pedestrians, and Every year the lives of approximately 1.35 million people are cut short other road users to improve safety. For instance, vehicle-to-pedes- as a result of a traffic-related collision. Between 20 and 50 million trian (V2P) technologies could enable cars to automatically stop more people suffer non-fatal injuries, with many incurring a disabil- at traffic crossings or alert pedestrian devices when a car is ap- ity as a result of their injury. Road traffic accidents cost countries an proaching at unsafe speeds. This technology can promote real-time average of 3 percent of GDP. The World Health Organization (WHO) vehicle tracking and routing, while improving safety for road users. estimates pedestrians comprise 22 percent of all road traffic deaths, Figure 6.1 illustrates the potential impacts of self-driving, automat- totaling more than 275,000 deaths worldwide. According to a 2016 ed, and connected vehicles on road safety. cost calculation by the European Union, an estimated 135,000 peo- However, several high-profile fatal collisions involving AVs have ple were injured due to road crashes in European countries, creating demonstrated that vehicular automation is not enough to com- a direct social cost (rehabilitation, healthcare, material damages, pletely ensure road safety. Due to this, autonomous driving etc.) of at least €100 billion (Asselin-Miller et al 2016; Kabashkin et combined with connected vehicle technologies are being sought al 2018). to achieve the zero fatalities goal over the medium and long term. Under Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11.2, countries aim Currently, the goals of future driving can no longer be understood to provide access to safe, affordable, accessible, and sustainable nor achieved without information and communications technology transport systems for all, with improved road safety. Collectively, (ICT), with 5G playing a fundamental role in enabling full connectiv- the world should strive to eliminate deaths and serious injuries on ity between persons, vehicles, and the road. roads by 2030. Analyzing the reasons for road accidents, human In regards to motorcycles or other two- or three-wheeled vehicles, errors (mainly alcohol, high speed and distractions) account for 5G will connect them to other vehicles and to road conditions. 5G’s an estimated 80 to 90 percent of total vehicle-related collisions special sensitivity to road conditions and the difficulty of larger ve- (Deme 2019), indicating the vast majority of road deaths could be hicles to see them provides an additional opportunity to improve motorcycle safety. 54 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport FIGURE 6.1. Connected Automated Vehicles and Improved Road Safety Source: Road Safety Facts. “How Can Automated and Connected Vehicles Improve Road Safety?” Available online at https://roadsafetyfacts.eu/how-can-automated-and-con- nected-vehicles-improve-road-safety/. ENERGY USE electrified vehicle ecosystem comprises a spectrum of technologies according to the degree of electrification, as detailed in figure 6.2. As outlined previously, future 5G-enabled vehicles will differ from The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates EV numbers will those on the road today in a number of ways. Assessing the impact grow from 3 million to 125 million by 2030 (IEA 2018). Hydrogen of the 5G connectivity alone makes little sense in light of the project- FCEV potential aside, the J.P. Morgan outlook (2018) says that in ed wider changes. Bringing in the host of expected impacts—from 2025, 32 percent of all vehicles will operate with a certain degree of changing power sources, to changing business models—and in electrification (9 percent of this total will be BEVs, 3 percent PHEV, conjunction with the impacts of 5G connectivity, creates an oppor- 20 percent HEV and BAHV), while 68 percent will be pure ICE. In tunity for a more realistic assessment. However, the integration of 2030, the estimates EVs will comprise 59 percent of all vehicles (18 vehicle electrification, autonomous operation, connectivity, and percent BEVs, 2 percent PHEVs, 39 percent HEV and BAHV), while 41 car-sharing models will be complex, and either drive down energy percent will be pure ICE. On the other hand, as shown in figure 6.3, use in the transport sector, or lead to a more ambiguous impact. IEA also projects significant hydrogen FCEV sales volumes—but only in the long term, even with a favorable climate-policy scenario, representing a market share of about 17 percent by 2050 (with 35 Vehicle electrification million annual unit sales). These estimates for the hydrogen FCEV align with the current long-term perspectives expressed by experts Although power plants might experience more energy consump- in their respective studies (Tanç et al 2018). tion because of the increased electricity demands of vehicle electrification, this paper does not cover the upstream energy As technologies advance and energy and carbon dioxide regula- generation from power plants; instead, the analysis focuses on en- tions come into force, the future will feature more vehicles with ergy consumption from vehicles themselves. Indeed, global vehicle some sort of electrification. Several prominent reasons support this forecasts already contain a sensible assumption about the power automation through electrification synergy. For example, a growing source for CAVs, that these cars will be primarily electric vehicles. trend toward electrical drivetrains facilitates an easier introduction As an alternative to the popular internal combustion engine (ICE) of automation. Apart from this, future useful applications (such as vehicles—with engines that generate power by usually burning automated plug-in of vehicles and wireless transfer and sharing of petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel fuel or fuel oil—the car battery) will help in integrating the AVs into a vehicle/grid eco- system. Studies collectively suggest that electrification of vehicles Impacts of 5G-Enabled Transport 55 The autonomous and shared Additionally, AVs may diminish or even remove the burden of the car, empowered through 5G driving task, so that those who were unable to drive a vehicle could ride in AVs. For example, senior adults and persons with physical technology, could potentially save disabilities could take advantage of the increased mobility options up to 75 percent in energy use offered by AVs. A first attractive business case, in which fully AVs sense their environment and move safely with little or no human in- BOX 6.1. 5G and the Potential Energy Savings of put along a restricted set of predetermined routes, will be rolled out Platooning and Vehicle Sharing by transportation companies (such as taxi and car rental companies) to provide low-cost, on-demand mobility services via a smart- Looking at the potential energy saving associated with phone app. Such app-based taxi booking in smartphone platforms 5G-connected autonomous vehicle road operations, is another factor that would increase trip frequency with previously Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) analysis of pla- underserved populations and produce a sort of “magnet effect” in tooning techniques shows a significant reduction in power former public transport users, and non-drivers alike. This will ex- consumption—whether fossil-based fuel or electric power— pand the adoption of the autonomous vehicle and consequently of approximately 30 percent. By combining platooning with a increase energy consumption, which is estimated from +4 percent vehicle-sharing component to improve journey efficiency, the (Taiebat et al 2018) to +14 percent (Lee and Kockelman 2019). energy savings could scale up to 75 percent. IDB estimates a savings per year and per vehicle of more than US$3,000. Finally, the energy demands of sensing and computing equipment decrease the overall energy efficiency of AVs (Taiebat et al 2018), on However, the transition to vehicle sharing will likely be difficult. the order of +5 percent to +10 percent (Lee and Kockelman 2019). Instituting active policies that prioritize circulation or parking of shared vehicles will help introduce the vehicle-sharing con- cept with greater success. 5G-connected vehicles The list of innovative, 5G-enabled driving techniques applicable to the connected vehicle is long, with vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) could bring an improvement in CAVs compared to conventional and vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications potentially coor- counterparts from –20 percent (Taiebat et al 2019) to –70 percent dinating interactions among multiple vehicles and infrastructure (Lee and Kockelman 2019) in terms of energy efficiency alone, thus types. This will open the door to platooning (for reduced air resis- vehicle electrification will have a straightforward impact on net en- tance), connected and smart intersections that enable the syncing ergy consumption. of the traffic flow with traffic lights, congestion mitigation, improved The expected energy savings could also result in significant fuel econ- crash avoidance, and integration with mass transit and ITS, among omy improvement, when compared to the conceivable rise in the others. On the other hand, 5G-enabled vehicle technology will en- reference price for petroleum products from 2020 to 2050—an esti- able even higher efficiencies derived from less idling and speed mated increase of +20 percent for gasoline and +30 percent for diesel, fluctuations, green-driving, and eco-routing, as well as a reduced as predicted by U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA 2020). number of cold-engine starts. Studies agree that deriving smart routing that uses V2I coordination Autonomous driving to select the most energy-efficient route (such as a route with fewer stops, shorter distances, or reduced congestion) has the potential Studies jointly agree that vehicle automation powered by artificial to save energy, in the order of –5 percent to as much as –20 per- intelligence (AI) and advanced sensors will result in CAVs operating cent, as reported by Brown et al (2014) and Stephens et al (2016), more efficiently and safely than the typical human-driven vehicle. although the upper bound estimate could increase up to –25 per- However, due to the potential for higher speeds and increased us- cent in light of new progress of the applied AI techniques. age, autonomy alone would actually be expected to increase the When smart intersections powered by 5G can be operated with overall energy use of the sector. CAVs, speed control of individual vehicles may be continuously The potential of AV for driving at faster speeds with closer spacing adjusted and monitored to obey existing rules and intersection con- to the preceding vehicle, while ensuring proper safety, may lead to ditions. The introduction of V2I in intersections may reduce energy speed-limit increases on certain highways, and because of aero- wasting situations such as stop delays by watching the traffic and dynamic drag, will have a negative impact on fuel economy, thus checking the trajectory of each vehicle and reserving the intersec- consuming more energy, estimated at a +7 percent, +22 percent tion for the vehicle that has the right of way at any given moment. (Wadud et al 2016) or even +30 percent (Brown et al 2014). 56 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport FIGURE 6.2. Spectrum of Electric Vehicle Technologies MILD HYBRID A mild hybrid, also known as battery-assisted hybrid vehicle (BAHV), sits between a convention- al gasoline vehicle and a full hybrid. This vehicle type has an ICE that uses a modest battery, and a motor-generator allowing the engine to be turned off whenever the car is coasting, braking, or at a full stop. BAHV may employ regenerative braking and some level of power assistance but does not have an electric-only mode of propulsion. FULL HYBRID A full hybrid, also known as hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), uses the combined efforts of both an ICE and a battery-powered electric motor intended to achieve either better fuel economy than a conventional vehicle or better performance (for example, while merging or climbing a hill, without burning addition- al fuel). The vehicle may also be able to drive for brief periods solely on electrical power, with the gas engine turned off, but all power is generated onboard, without the need for plugging-in the battery. PLUG-IN HYBRID A plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sits somewhere between a full hybrid and a full electrical ELECTRIC VEHICLE vehicle. These are vehicles with a battery that can be recharged by plugging into an external source of electric power as well as by its onboard engine and generator. Compared to a regular hybrid, the PHEV battery has a much higher capacity, for extended all-electric driving. ELECTRIC VEHICLE An electric vehicle (EV) or battery electric vehicle (BEV) is at the extreme end of vehicle electrifica- tion. It has no gasoline engine (no fuel tank, no fuel cell, no exhaust pipe, and no engine oil) and uses chemical energy stored in rechargeable battery packs to power an electric motor drive system 100 percent of the time. EVs are recharged via plugging into an electrical outlet or charging station, which restores the onboard battery. FUEL-CELL ELECTRIC In parallel, a fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEV) uses a fuel cell, usually compressed hydrogen—in- VEHICLES stead of a battery or in combination with a battery or super-capacitor—to generate electricity to power its onboard electric motor. FCEVs are classified as zero-emissions vehicles (emitting only water and heat), and centralize pollutants at the site of the hydrogen production—typically derived from reformed natural gas—but could be obtained from any primary energy source (including renewable biomass, wind and solar energy, as well as nuclear energy, and decarbonized fossil fuels). FIGURE 6.3. Projection of Vehicle Sales Volume (Assuming Current Rates of Motorization Continue) 250 200 FCV Plug-in hybrid diesel Millions of annual units 150 CNG/LPG Electricity Diesel hybrid 100 Diesel Plug-in hybrid gasoline 50 Gasoline hybrid Gasoline 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Arena et al 2017. Impacts of 5G-Enabled Transport 57 The expected energy reduction ranges from –13 percent to as much an associated energy waste associated with this part of the cycle, as –44 percent (Lee and Kockelman 2019). which has the potential to impact the traffic flow as shared vehicles increase in popularity. The literature (Taiebet al 2019) estimates the Additionally, the 5G-connected vehicle will enable smoother driv- energy cost of shared CAVs without passengers from +6 percent to ing cycles, since coordination with infrastructure will reduce driving +14 percent (Lee and Kockelman 2019), but it also indicates room situations that impair fuel or battery consumption and durability, for improvement where minimizing this figure would be a key to such as maintaining the ideal cruising speed while allowing for ac- shared-vehicle success. celeration and deceleration ahead of time, being able to anticipate downstream traffic conditions, and enriching control techniques Finally, the experts concur that the shared CAV will increase with efficient eco-driving skills while incorporating traffic conditions long-distance travel. Just as when using public transport, and received via communication and sensors. On the whole, this would without driving tasks, the riders could focus on consuming media, represent a reduction from –10 percent to –20 percent of current using their smartphones or resting and relaxing. This will reduce the energy use. averseness of passengers to long-distance trips (anticipating that this could reallocate as much as 25 to 35 percent of the demand for Additionally, on-demand CAV would reduce the trips that do not air travel to roads for trips of 500 miles or more (Taiebat et al 2018), match with client demands, such as searching for a parking lot or with a realistically estimated energy consumption increase from +6 space, potentially diminishing the energy consumption by around percent to +18 percent (Lee and Kockelman 2019). –5 percent (Taiebat et al 2018; Lee and Kockelman 2019). The success of car sharing as a viable transport option, and the Finally, despite the clear gains of connectivity in terms of ener- possibility of having autonomous public transport, will directly gy use, the equipment itself needed to support the enhanced affect the number of drivers using this type of public transport. vehicle-to-everything (V2X) capacity will require more energy, on Driving-related jobs will tend to disappear, or rather be reconverted the order of 2 to 5 percent2 higher than in today’s vehicle electronics to other types of tasks, such as cleaning, maintenance, refueling or systems. Although worth mentioning, this consumption is negligible trip planning. compared to the potential benefits of increased connectivity. In ad- dition, the connected infrastructure necessary to support such CAVs will increase the associated energy demand, although compared to Estimating the overall impact the potential gains, the impact is likely minor (Pihkola et al 2018). Bringing the above aspects together, and considering a reasonable timeline for adopting the technological enablers for the CAV—elec- Car sharing trification by 2025, full autonomy by 2027, 5G CAV by 2030, and shared CAV by 2050—figure 6.4 illustrates the energy consumption Car sharing shifts the paradigm from privately owned vehicles to reduction expected in the most optimistic estimations. The figure a model where carpooling is offered through shared vehicles, and shows the aggregated energy reductions of –77.5 percent in 2025, could disruptively cut the costs of driving, even for long distanc- –75 percent in 2027, –94 percent in 2030, and –96 percent in 2050. es. As shared mobility serves a greater fraction of local transport necessities, households with multiple vehicles will begin decreas- Considering the most pessimistic analysis, figure 6.4 also shows ing the number of cars they own, while others might eventually the most conservative estimations for energy reductions stemming abandon ownership altogether. Because of their pioneering techno- from the adoption of CAV technology. In this case, the aggregat- logical aspects, CAVs are the ideal choices to support this scenario. ed energy reduction estimates range from –28 percent in 2025, +11 percent (no reduction) in 2027, –19 percent in 2030, and +0 percent Studies agree that if future CAVs were privately owned, energy in 2050. would be impacted differently than if passengers used AVs through a service for ride hailing or ride sharing (Fleming and Singer 2019). A comparison of more or less pessimistic studies reveals certain In fact, apart from the improved fuel economy derived from sharing very relevant conclusions: a car among more than one person, the contrast between private- ly-owned vehicles with underused occupancy and the potential for ► Studies agree changing the fuel model is necessary and that shared vehicles to have the “right-size” to match individual trip re- electric cars will bring a more or less significant reduction in quirements could realize considerable reduction in average energy energy consumption demands, which is estimated to be from –5 percent to –12 percent ► Non-connected AVs will increase the onboard energy con- (Lee and Kockelman 2019) and up to –45 percent (Wadud et al 2016). sumption due to the need for higher computation extra sensors, although they will produce greater efficiency in time Considering that even a shared AV cannot avoid driving around and work capacity empty at certain moments after its passengers exit, (for example, ► Studies agree connectivity will improve energy efficiency, looking for possible passengers or seeking free parking), there is safety and travel time 58 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport ► Among the pessimistic studies, which conclude that energy EMPLOYMENT consumption will remain relatively stable in the long term, and the optimistic studies, which speak of a 96 percent re- duction in energy consumption, we can likely expect the new Automation technology enabled by the 5G could endanger many 5G-enabled driving model comes with an energy reduction of the jobs as we know today. A 2016 report from the Organisation somewhere between these two positions. for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) found that on average, across OECD countries, 9 percent of jobs are autom- Finally, and importantly, while overall energy use is significant, the atable, though statistics vary widely between countries (Arntz et al impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be at least as or 2016). For instance, the share of automatable jobs is 6 percent in more critical. Decarbonizing the transport sector can only happen the Republic of Korea and Estonia, and 12 percent in Austria and through efficiency gains and transitions to the new fuel sources Germany, which reflects variations in workplace organization, pre- outlined above; the climate impact of electric vehicles will depend vious investments in automation technologies as well as differences on greening the energy mix supplying their electricity. User behav- in the education of workers across countries. In contrast, Frey and ior, however, and whether public transport and sharing business Osborne (2017) revealed that 47 percent of jobs in the United States models that reduce or even eliminate empty trips dominate the are at a high risk of automation over the next few decades. In the transport mix, will determine the scale of impacts. The optimistic same study it was revealed the jobs that exhibit higher probability and pessimistic scenarios outlined above only reinforce the poten- of automation are specifically those involving transportation and tial variation in possible climate outcomes. As the introduction of material moving, in which up to 93 percent of current employment AVs could actually add to kilometers traveled and increase con- is expected to disappear. Although the specific share of jobs differs gestion, regulations governing transportation systems will become between reports—the share is reduced to 80 percent in Heyman even more important. (2016)—there appears to be a consensus around the fact that au- tomation enabled by 5G will require a significant upskilling in the transport sector workforce. It should be noted that changing busi- ness models are likely to have an impact on the number and types of vehicles needed, also impacting the demand for workers in the automotive manufacturing sector. FIGURE 6.4. Vehicle Energy Consumption Expected in the Most Optimistic and Most Conservative Estimation, Relative to 2020 120% 100% Energy use compared to 2020 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2020 2025 2027 2030 2050 Re ecting impact of: Electri cation 30–75% reduction Autonomous driving 10–55% increase Connected vehicles 30–75% reduction Shared vehicles 38% reduction– 35% increase Impacts of 5G-Enabled Transport 59 However, if we focus on developing countries and emerging mar- and Oxford Economics 2017) and that 5G will increase revenues de- kets, the risk is much higher. As stated by Arntz et al (2016), the rived from the information and communications technology sector number of jobs subject to automation reaches 69 percent in India, (ICT) by 35 percent (Ericsson 2019). Applying Okun’s Law to these 72 percent in Thailand, 77 percent in China, and up to 85 percent numbers (Farole et al 2017), we can conclude that the total balance in Ethiopia. The more manual, unregulated, and informal the job, of employment will be positive with some net job creation. the more exposed it is to possible automation. It should be noted that not all of the at-risk jobs will necessarily result in employment In summary, while some jobs will become obsolete, more will be losses since the adoption of technologies is a slow process, which created, resulting in a minor but positive net balance. A good ex- in the case of transportation could last around 15 years and, during ample of the veracity of this conclusion is a Swedish report on the this time, workers can adjust by switching tasks. effect of automation in Sweden’s transport sector (Heyman et al The 5G technological revolution will generate additional jobs through demand for new technologies and through higher compet- 5G will create countervailing pressures itiveness. It is estimated that 5G will increase global gross domestic on employment, with unequal product (GDP) by 5.4 percent by 2030, based on assessments that distribution of winners and losers the digital economy will represent 15.5 percent global GDP (Huawei TABLE 6.1. New Skills Demand and New Job Opportunities Created Because of Automation in the Transport Sector NEW SKILLS NEW JOBS ► Analytical thinking and innovation ► Data analysts and scientists ► Active learning and learning strategies ► AI and machine learning specialists ► Creativity, originality, and initiative ► General and operations managers ► Technology design and programming ► Big data specialists ► Critical thinking and analysis ► Digital transformation specialists ► Complex problem-solving ► Sales and marketing professionals ► Leadership and social influence ► New technology specialists ► Emotional intelligence ► Organizational development specialists ► Reasoning, problem-solving, and ideation ► Software and applications developers and analysts ► Systems analysis and evaluation ► Information technology services ► Process automation specialists ► Legal and public sector professionals specialized in digital economy and business ► Innovation professionals information security analysts ► eCommerce and social media specialists ► User experience and human–machine interaction designers ► Training and development specialists ► Robotics specialists and engineers ► Client information and customer service workers ► Service and solutions designers ► Digital marketing and strategy specialists These new job opportunities will come at the price of phasing out current skills/jobs as shown in table 6.2. 60 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport 2013), which concludes that the average job destruction totaled of youth and women, with 70 percent of young men and 93 percent about 20 percent per year for the period from 1990 to 2009. More young women unemployed or pursuing education or training, and specifically, during this time approximately 3.2 million jobs were just 55 percent of secondary school-aged youth in school, leaving eliminated; conversely, during the same time period 3.4 million jobs an important share of the population at risk due to automation were created, leading to a net growth in the number of jobs in the (World Bank 2018). country. A summary of other voices on this topic follows below. Addressing these challenges in an effective manner will require Table 6.1 shares the new skills demand and job opportunities re- enhancing the digital literacy of the existing workforce, or per- lated to the transport sector for the coming years, according to a haps absorbing highly skilled workers from other industries. Public jobs report published by the World Economic Forum (Leopold et agencies overseeing transport operations and regulations, will al 2018). need to develop new skills to allow them to identify, evaluate, and eventually deploy the potential uses of 5G in the transport sector. Finally, according to the International Transport Forum, automation Solutions will also require improving the overall digital literacy of in the transport sector will not destroy the job market. However, the transport user population, allowing them to fully leverage the low-skilled workers are likely to suffer greater pressure from in- proliferation of new tools creasing automation as their jobs are more likely to be automated compared to highly skilled workers. Moreover, looking toward the For this reason, according to Blix (2017), developing countries will future, the modern economy will continue to create new jobs, espe- face the following four main challenges in the future: cially in the service sector. However, the required adjustments can lead to poor wage developments and social upheaval in the short 1. Increase the number of qualified workers in order to support run, especially for developing countries. 5G, together with AI and the automation revolution robotics, are expected to be the main drivers of the economy’s next 2. Ensure sufficient training with required skills for less qualified steps toward modernization. workers, as improved skills have been the main component of helping individuals and societies to adapt to technological As mentioned above, low-skilled and low-income individuals face change an increased risk of losing jobs to automation. An OECD report 3. Invest in human capital, particularly early childhood education, (2013) indicates almost 60 percent of people with a primary edu- to develop high-order cognitive and socio-behavioral skills in cation are at high risk of losing their jobs due to automation, while addition to foundational skills this percentage is reduced to 2 percent and less than 0.5 percent 4. Control informal employment, which is rising in developing for university graduates and PhD profiles. The challenge grows even countries (Djankov et al 2019)—98 percent in Nepal, 89 per- larger in emerging markets. In Morocco, for example, the labor mar- cent in Senegal, 63 percent in Togo, 75 percent in Vietnam, and ket is characterized by many challenges such as a lack of inclusion 57 percent in Mexico (2019). TABLE 6.2. Declining Skills and Jobs That Will Become Redundant Due to Automation in the Transport Sector DECLINING SKILLS REDUNDANT JOBS ► Manual dexterity, endurance, and precision ► Data entry clerks ► Management of personnel ► Administrative and executive secretaries ► Quality control and safety awareness ► Assembly and factory workers ► Coordination and time management ► Client information and customer service workers ► Technology use, monitoring, and control ► Material-recording and stock-keeping clerks ► General and operations managers ► Postal service clerks ► Mechanics and machinery repairers ► Car, van and motorcycle drivers Impacts of 5G-Enabled Transport 61 NOTES Heyman, Fredrik, Pehr-Johan Norbäck, and Lars Persson. 2013. “Where Are Jobs Created? A Report on the Dynamics of the Swedish Business Sector in 1. GDP statistics taken from World Bank Data: https://data.worldbank.org/ 1990–2009 to the Expert Group on Public Economics. Volume 3. Expert indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD. 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World Bank. 2018. “Labor Market in Morocco: Challenges and Opportunities.” World Bank Group, Washington, DC. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/477441523251051211. 62 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport Impacts of 5G-Enabled Transport 63 07 COSTS AND POTENTIAL REVENUE FOR 5G-ENABLED TRANSPORT 64 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport The superior connectivity offered by 5G will accelerate the development, commercial use, and reliability of automated vehicles (AVs). Moreover, current AVs require huge computation consumption due to the amount of data to be processed coming from their LiDAR systems,1 video cameras, and other sensors. The ultra-high speed that 5G brings to road infrastructure will allow the captured data to be computed in the cloud, alleviating consumption in every vehicle, improving total energy efficiency, and sharing knowledge of road and traffic conditions. The first use of AVs will be on highways, where traffic is more pre- by the efficiency gains generated, and that the transport use case dictable, and journeys are longer. For safety levels to be high may be a key consideration in driving 5G rollout more broadly. enough, cars must be connected, most likely with 5G. To achieve such a level of connectivity, the infrastructure network must provide The deployment cost of specific roadside units for provisioning V2I- more transmission points along major transport routes. Such trans- based ITS services along a 51-kilometer stretch of road would be mission units are referred to as roadside units (RSU). in the range from US$1 to US$5 million. This cost could be reduced up to 65 percent if the mobile operator agrees to use conventional While it is not yet entirely clear how 5G will eventually be deployed bands for distributing ITS messages. In this case, specific regula- to support transport applications, this chapter seeks to develop an tions or PPP agreements result in a reduced investment effort, initial estimate of the overall cost for equipping a transport corridor although the cost of fiber optic deployment could also be recovered based on the density of RSUs needed to support various potential through rentals to third parties. Moreover, an appropriate income intelligent transport system (ITS) services based on vehicle-to-in- model could result in a return on investment between two and five frastructure (V2I) interaction. In addition, the main business models years for well-traveled corridors, depending on the sharing case. to recover the investment is presented and assessed for an exam- ple road length. While the results are not generalizable across an The transport sector needs a specific entire transport network, and do not necessarily reflect the true implementation costs for technologies still being developed, this as- infrastructure deployment, the cost of sessment is intended to show the investment costs associated with which will depend on the collaboration equipping road networks with 5G infrastructure will be likely justified with the coexisting network Costs and Potential Revenue for 5G-Enabled Transport 65 Methodology certain ITS service given a density of RSUs. For the sake of simplic- ity, in our methodology the full set of roads is divided into a small In order to estimate the cost of deploying a new ITS infrastructure, it number of road types, with each type characterized by specific val- is necessary to determine the density of RSUs needed along a road. ues of the abovementioned parameters. The assessment follows A key determinant of this required density is the selection of the an approach (5GAA 2019) whereby five types of roads are consid- ITS services and use cases to be supported (for example, emergen- ered: motorways, urban A roads, urban minor roads, rural A roads, cy vehicle approaching, traffic jam ahead warning, etc.). For each and rural minor roads. Although this classification comes from an service, certain performance metrics—including data rate, latency, analysis of UK roads, the general approach holds for various road reliability, coverage range, among others—are associated with an classification models. appropriate RSU density. To simplify the assessment, the key con- siderations include only data rate and reliability metrics. For each road type, a different analytical modeling of the radio channel propagation is required. Specifically, this analysis uses two different The set of cooperative ITS (C-ITS) services can be divided into differ- models whose description can be found in Karedal et al (2011). The ent classes. A common classification considers the phase of C-ITS first, two-ray model provides accurate results in scenarios where the deployment in which the service would be used (C2C-CC 2019). As main power contributions originate from a direct ray and a reflection described in Chapter 3, Day 1 services consider the exchange of on the ground, that is, in scenarios surrounded by fields or low height status data to enhance predictive driving, Day 2 services enhance buildings. This model is used in all types of roads considered except vehicle awareness through the exchange of sensor data, while Day 3 for urban minor, in which the height of surrounding buildings may not services are based on the exchange of intention data, which allows fit with the two-ray model. Therefore, in that type of road we use the better coordination of the vehicles to allow autonomous driving. model developed for highways (Karedal et al 2011). Given that the To obtain the service requirements for each day, we considered highway model is not deterministic and does not consider the com- both their classification (C2C-CC 2019) and the requirements set bination of multiple scattered rays, we consider that effect adding a (5GAA 2019) for different use cases. Based on these references the fast-fading margin of 7 dB. In the two-ray model case, the additional requirements considered in this assessment are shown in table 7.1. margin is not necessary since that model already considers the im- The table also shows the minimum received power required to meet pact of the combination of independent rays. Concerning obstruction the service requirements given an RSU with a sensitivity of –90 losses due to other vehicles located between the transmitter and the decibel-milliwatts (dBm) (Lindberg et al 2019). receiver, we assume a vehicle antenna height of 1.5 m in the receiver and a worst-case scenario in which the obstruction is due to a truck. Another key element for calculating the RSU density is the type of In that case, losses of 6 dB are assumed when the transmitter height road considered, such as road classification, vehicle density, travel is 3 m, while 3 dB are assumed when the transmitter height is larger. speed, the availability of road infrastructure to place RSUs, road ge- Table 7.2 charts this configuration. ometry, the type and number of surrounding buildings, etc. All such parameters may have an impact on the capacity and coverage of a TABLE 7.1. Data Rate Requirement for Each C-ITS Deployment Phase DEPLOYMENT DATA RATE REQUIREMENT RELIABILITY REQUIREMENT MINIMUM RECEIVED POWER PHASE (MEGABITS PER SECOND) (PERCENT) (DECIBEL-MILLIWATT) Day 1 3 Mbps 99.99% –85 dBm Day 2 6 Mbps 99.9% –82 dBm Day 3 30 Mbps 99% –67 dBm TABLE 7.2. Radio Channel Propagation Modeling for Each Type of Road Considered TYPE OF ROAD RSU HEIGHT CHANNEL MODEL OBSTRUCTION LOSSES FAST-FADING MARGIN (METERS) PARAMETERS (DECIBELS) (DECIBELS) Motorway 6m Two-ray model 3 dB 0 dB Urban A 6m Two-ray model 3 dB 0 dB Urban minor 3m Karedal model for highway 6 dB 7 dB Rural A 2.5 m Two-ray model 6 dB 0 dB Rural minor 3m Two-ray model 6 dB 0 dB 66 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport TABLE 7.3. Additional Assumptions for RSU and OBU TABLE 7.4. Maximum Inter-RSU Distance for Each Type of Road and ITS Deployment Phase RF PARAMETER VALUE TYPE OF MAXIMUM INTER-RSU DISTANCE (METERS) RSU antenna gain 8 dBi ROAD DAY 1 DAY 2 DAY 3 Vehicle antenna gain 4 dBi Motorway 4,010 3,374 1,422 Vehicle antenna height 1.5 m Urban A 4,010 3,374 1,422 OBU sensitivity –90 dBm Urban 2,560 1,733 246 Note: RF = radio frequency; dBi = decibels relative to isotropic; m = meter; dBm = minor decibel-milliwatt. Rural A 2,178 1,833 773 Rural minor 1,066 897 378 In order to obtain the largest distance between RSUs that fulfills the Once the number of RSUs required is calculated, capital expendi- required service level for each ITS service, it is necessary to assume ture (CAPEX) and operational expenditure (OPEX) values can be some radio frequency (RF) characteristics for the RSU and onboard estimated assuming that all the investment in the network and the unit (OBU). Shared in table 7.3, the assumptions made in this as- fiber backhaul deployment, which is the most expensive part, is sessment align with those in Lindberg et al (2019). carried out by a single operator. Using the above-mentioned assumptions, the maximum inter-RSU A business period of ten years is considered, for example, from distances for the deployment of new RSUs are shown in table 7.4 for 2025 to 2035. The calculations include an estimation of the deploy- the different deployment phases and types of roads. ment costs and revenues with this horizon of ten years. The main The number of RSUs required to cover a selected area can be ob- cost contributions for the network investment are as follows: tained by using the maximum inter-RSU distance and the length of ► RSU, including hardware and installation, with a cost per unit roads in a specific area. of US$7,750 (€7.200 ) (5GAA 2019). ► Fiber backhaul provision, with a total cost of US$24,800 per Example corridor km (€23.000) (Laya et al 2019). ► Network operation, calculated as the 10 percent of the CAPEX. In this study, an example road segment has been selected for analy- sis (see figure 7.1).2 The length of this stretch of road is 51 km and the Figure 7.2 depicts two examples of infrastructure required for the type of road can be assumed as urban minor. This road segment has deployment. Typically, RSU are installed over pre-existing signaling been selected as an example only, and the included calculations arches. and results are intended to provide an indicative result, not actual or predicted costs on this specific road segment. For operator revenues, the same assumption (Laya et al 2019) is made, considering a charged fee of US$0.50 per 100 km and per This segment has heavy traffic, including private vehicles, public vehicle. For this stretch, this represents paying US$0.255 per pass- transport, and freight. The total number of vehicles passing per day ing vehicle. is estimated at 22,940, distributed by various types of vehicles as indicated in table 7.5. With respect to the deployment rate, the network will be deployed at 55 percent the first year, with additional RSU deployment at 5 Assuming a length of 51 km and the inter-RSU distance shown in percent each year, from the second until the last. The fiber deploy- table 7.6, the number of RSUs to be deployed is as follows: ment rate in the first year will see 80 percent of fiber rolled out, TABLE 7.5. Number of Vehicles per Day in the TABLE7.6. Number of RSU as a Function of Service Machakos Turnoff-JKIA Stretch Type LARGE TRUCKS DAY 1 DAY 2 DAY 3 CAR MINIBUS TOTAL BUS LIGHT MEDIUM HEAVY 20 30 208 7,660 3,720 1,024 3,520 1,800 5,210 22,934 Source: World Bank 2019. Costs and Potential Revenue for 5G-Enabled Transport 67 FIGURE 7.1. Segment Selected for the Deployment Analysis FIGURE 7.2. Examples of RSUs Deployed in the United States A. RSU INSTALLED ON MERIDIAN AVE (TAMPA, FLORIDA) B. RSU DEPLOYED IN WASHINGTON STATE 68 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport FIGURE 7.3. Accumulated Costs and Revenues with- FIGURE 7.4. Accumulated Costs and Revenues with 50 out Cellular Support for Day 1 to Day 3 Services percent of Cellular Support for Day 1 to Day 3 Services $5,000,000 $5,000,000 $4,500,000 $4,500,000 $4,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,000,000 US$ $2,500,000 US$ $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $500,000 $0 4 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 ar $0 ar ar ar ar ar ar ar ar ar Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye 4 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 ar ar ar ar ar ar ar ar ar ar Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye with the remaining 20 percent deployed during the second year. FIGURE 7.5. Accumulated Costs and Revenues with Regarding the penetration rate of the connected autonomous vehi- 50 Percent of Cellular Support and 50 Percent Cost cle (CAV)—from year 1 to 10—an additional 10 percent of vehicles Sharing for Day 1 to Day 3 Services will acquire connectivity and start paying for the service, reaching 100 percent in the last year. $5,000,000 Costs evolutions are also considered, with CAPEX decreasing each $4,500,000 year by 3 percent, while OPEX will see an annual 3-percent increase. $4,000,000 Figure 7.3 shows the accumulated costs and revenues of a first case, $3,500,000 in which the pre-existing cellular network is not used. As observed, $3,000,000 payback periods between three and five years are expected, even US$ for “Day 3” services in which the density of RSU is important. $2,500,000 $2,000,000 Nevertheless, where there is a pre-existing cellular network, and part of the road is covered by RSU infrastructure, the costs could $1,500,000 be reduced, although fiber optic deployment represents the big- $1,000,000 gest component of the CAPEX, which includes a minimum required $500,000 investment. Figure 7.4 represents the accumulated costs and reve- nues, assuming a 50 percent road coverage by the cellular network. $0 The payback period is reduced by almost a year for the Day 3 de- 4 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 ar ar ar ar ar ar ar ar ar ar Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye Ye ployment case, which involves a much denser roll-out; however, Day 1 and Day 1 cases provide no significant benefit through this joint operation. Revenues However, the greatest results sensitivity lies in the cost of fiber optic Day 1 deployment deployment. Thus, figure 7.5 shows the deployment and return on investment costs when the deployment cost is shared between two Day 2 deployment operators at 50 percent. This represents a reduction in the one-year Day 3 deployment return on investment for all considered deployments, so that in ap- proximately two years, the deployment necessary for Day 1 services could be amortized. Costs and Potential Revenue for 5G-Enabled Transport 69 NOTES 1. LiDAR, which stands for laser imaging, detection, and ranging, is a laser-based range finding system for sensing the surrounding environ- ment, based on the duration time and wavelengths or returning pulses of light. 2. The demonstration section included is a 51 km stretch of the Mombasa Road (A-104/A-109) in Kenya. R EFER ENCES 5GAA (5G Automobile Association). 2019. “C-ITS Vehicle to Infrastructure Services: How C-V2X Technology Completely Changes the Cost Equation for Road Operators.” White Paper. 5GAA, Munich, Germany. Accessed June 2020. https://5Gaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/5GAA-BMAC-White-Paper_fi- nal2.pdf. C2C-CC (CAR 2 CAR Communication Consortium). 2019. “Guidance for Day 2 and Beyond Roadmap.” White Paper 2072. C2C-CC, Braunschweig, Germany. Accessed June 2020. https://www.car-2-car.org/fileadmin/documents/ General_Documents/C2CCC_WP_2072_Roadmap Day2AndBeyond.pdf. Karedal, Johan, Nicolai Czink, Alexander Paier, Fredrik Tufvesson, and Andreas F. Molisch. 2011. “Path Loss Modeling for Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communications.” IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology 60 (1): 323–28. doi: 10.1109/ TVT.2010.2094632. Laya, Andrés, Konstantinos Manolakis, Gorka Vélez, Mikael Fallgren, Shane He, John Favaro, Panagiotis Syros, Michele Paolino, Bessem Sayadi, Baruch Altman, Mohamed Gharba, Markus Dillinger, Leonardo Gomes Baltar, and Jose F. Monserrat. 2019. “Business Feasibility Study for 5G V2X Deployment.” White Paper. 5G-PPP Automotive Working Group, Heidelberg, Germany. Accessed June 2020. https://bscw.5G-ppp.eu/pub/bscw.cgi/d293672/5G%20PPP%20 Automotive%20 WG_White%20Paper_Feb2019.pdf. Lindberg, Per, Taimoor Abbas, Yunpeng Zang, Andres Laya, Mikael Fallgren, A. E. Fernandez, A. Servel, O. Sancier, R. Comte, E. Le Fur, M. Bouillon, M. Gharba, Zexian Li, and Guillaume Vivier. 2019. “Deliverable D2.2: Intermediate Report on V2X Business Models and Spectrum.” Document No. 5GCAR/D2.2, v2.0, February 28. Fifth Generation Communication Automotive Research and innovation (5GCAR). Accessed June 2020. https://5Gcar.eu/wp-content/up- loads/2019/03/5GCAR_ D2.2_v2.0.pdf. World Bank. 2019. “Kenya: National Urban Transport Improvement Project.” Implementation Completion and Results Report, No. ICR4798. World Bank Group, Washington, DC. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/702181563299068935. 70 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport Costs and Potential Revenue for 5G-Enabled Transport 71 08 CHALLENGES AND LESSONS LEARNED 72 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport As 5G is still in its infancy, lessons which can be distilled from initial pilots will be used to guide future implementation. This chapter outlines a set of challenges and risks already identified for the transport sector. Preparing workers for new jobs CHAL L ENGES As elaborated previously, 5G-enabled transport will likely have a Public transport and use of limited small net gain in overall jobs, especially as more efficient transport urban public space facilitates job creation in other sectors. That said, the jobs created will require skillsets separate from those lost and are likely to move Public transport offers passengers the key advantages of low-cost to new locations. Informal jobs lost in the poorer parts of the world mobility and the ability to spend commuting time on tasks other could be replaced by more technology-focused jobs in developed than driving. However, in some cases the lack of flexibility and in- countries. Thus, governments must identify these impacts early on dividual efficiency presents a major drawback. The rise of 5G and and begin to prepare their citizens for an increasingly digital future. increasingly autonomous private cars risks threatening some of public transport’s main advantages, as better management of road space and greater fluidity of traffic can boost the shared autono- The demand for sustainability mous car service, while reducing the need to drive provides private As identified in the discussion surrounding 5G and energy use in vehicle users with the same opportunity to use transit time for Chapter 6, the changes impacting the transport sector could have other purposes. While such gains are not necessarily negative, an significant benefits in terms of energy use and climate change. increasing reliance on private vehicles could threaten public trans- Although the benefits of 5G on transport energy use are fairly and port ridership and increase congestion in city centers as well as decidedly positive, it is important to recognize they are part of a space used by private cars, which would raise serious questions of wider ecosystem. In the most pessimistic of scenarios, the many sustainability, access for the poor, and safety. Adapting to the new forces facing transport could have little net benefit at all, as increas- paradigm will require new thinking, new policies, and a stronger un- ing connectivity and automation could simply drive up the number derstanding of how transport modes can fill various mobility needs. of empty trips. Policy makers must grapple with these questions in Traffic prioritization, demand management, preferential parking coming decades, although the data availability features of 5G may policies and strict regulations prioritizing urban space for pedestri- provide a key tool unavailable to today’s decision makers. ans, cyclists, and public transport could be increasingly important tools for urban transport decision makers. Challenges and Lessons Learned 73 Widening the digital divide no common agreement has been reached on how to manage this As with the introduction of any new technology, the deployment of 5G type of shared network infrastructure, especially when facilitat- represents a significant economic investment, but one that undoubt- ing the movement of vehicles across international borders, which edly brings significant long-term benefits derived from increased could potentially lead to a reconsideration of the roaming business transport efficiency. If only the richest countries are able to undertake model. The deployment of a specific road safety network is anoth- that investment, an obvious risk would be a deepening digital divide er option under discussion. Here, the network slicing feature of 5G between the richest and poorest countries. Therefore, governments could also play a fundamental role. Under this model, regulation or must find joint investment options, including with the private sector, economic incentives, or a combination of both, should be applied that will facilitate and support this technological leap forward. to make use of pre-existing networks to alleviate deployment costs. Concerns about autonomous vehicles The cybersecurity of the automotive industry is not yet mature Due to the rapid rate of technological change, in many countries As with any device connected to the Internet, CAVs can be attacked concerns persist that autonomous vehicle (AV) technologies re- by cybersecurity threats. These cybercrimes in the automotive main immature and underdeveloped, which requires stronger field could have three goals: (1) harm the vehicle or the driver, (2) safety measures and consumer protection (Udall 2018). While hurt the manufacturing company, or (3) steal or modify sensitive concerns of public safety are important and potentially justified, a information (whether personal customer data or corporate intel- tradeoff exists, as the technology will never mature unless compa- lectual property (IP) data). With privacy a major concern for direct nies are able to receive authorization to test their autonomous cars V2X communications, the automotive industry has developed good on public roads. solutions centered on the use of pseudonyms. The industry must continue to work with governments to regulate cybersecurity and Not a single technology for V2X make further progress in reducing threats. Another issue constraining progress toward automation is the lack Even the most sophisticated of the world´s leading automotive of political and industrial consensus for choosing one vehicle-to-ev- brands struggle with cyber threats. In 2018, Tesla’s Amazon Web erything (V2X) technology for use in all vehicular communications, Services cloud account was attacked and used to mine cryptocur- leaving automakers wondering which technology to implement rency, potentially revealing sensitive data such as vehicle telemetry. into their onboard radio units: wireless access in vehicular envi- Uber fell victim to a malware targeting of its Android app where ronments (WAVE), fourth-generation long-term evolution (4G LTE), hackers accessed users’ personal information and location. Such cooperative vehicle-to-everything (C-V2X) Release 14 or the new attacks underline the vulnerabilities facing the transport sec- fifth-generation new radio (5G NR) Release 16. The automotive in- tor. More robust security controls will be needed to prevent data dustry is pressing to protect their interests and ensure the lower breaches across the entire CAV ecosystem. impact into the complexity of the car, while backward compatibil- ity becomes a potential issue for the future, with most concerns centering around C-V2X technologies. Questions surrounding the International uncertainties coexistence and compatibility of several wireless technologies are The CAV represents the confluence of two industrial sectors of great also affecting the market launch of connected autonomous vehicles relevance: the automotive sector and the information and commu- (CAVs). Policy makers and regulators should guarantee interopera- nications technology (ICT) sector. Both sectors, with enormous bility and minimize uncertainty for the car manufacturing industry. financial pressure, are subject to global economic uncertainty, Moreover, the adoption of 5G to address a plethora of non-V2X-spe- which can greatly affect their normal operations and development. cific ITS services is fundamental in modernizing the transport Global trade disputes have already led to disruption in the 5G sector. Therefore, the introduction and deployment of 5G should technology proliferation and the cancellation of many commercial not be hampered by delays in the industrial decision process. relationships between companies across borders. Such disputes have a real impact on the pace of development of 5G standards. On the other hand, global megatrends such as climate change or Need for agreement between operators on how and who will provide the C-V2X network the COVID-19 pandemic also drive dramatic changes in the global economy, highlighting the inflection point facing the transport sec- While the European commission has agreed the use of a multi-op- tor. For example, COVID-19 has drastically reduced the normal flow erator communication environment offers the best approach for of traffic of people and goods, rendering the impact scale on macro providing a C-V2X network, the issue remains largely unexplored. economy difficult to predict, leaving many transport systems and Under the C-V2X model, vehicles could connect to any network operators to face an existential crisis in terms of financial and op- and every operator will be in charge of a specific area. However, erational models. 74 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport The cost of CAVs is still high Industrial diversity problem Due to the additional communication units, antennas, technology, Current 5G market shows a huge dependency on a handful of and computation resources, the cost of a CAV is still much high- companies regarding technology availability. Only a few dedicated er than a conventional vehicle. For example, in the case of electric companies offer network equipment, with OpenRAN (a vendor-neu- vehicles, the additional cost with respect to internal combustion tral disaggregation of radio access networks, or RAN) still in a very engine (ICE) vehicles is around US$10,000, which could become an early stage. For chip sets the situation is even more dramatic with important barrier to its introduction in the markets of low-income only two companies providing solutions. The challenge of this mo- countries. nopolistic situation can also be aggravated by the current global COVID-19 pandemic, which may pose a problem with respect to the Moreover, the IP costs are also expected to be extremely high for increase in prices for equipment. To minimize this risk, nations must 5G. Already, 4G shows a high cost factor in smartphones and com- guarantee sufficient plurality in the provision of equipment and a munication devices in vehicles, but indeed 5G is expected to be good balance between continents. much more expensive, which could be a significant hindrance for low-income countries. Challenges and Lessons Learned 75 LESSONS L EAR NED The first flagship 5G networks might technically be live, but as of comparison to WAVE (5GAA 2018). Technologically speaking, May 2020 they generally only exist in select cities and are hotspot 5G NR-based C-V2X will provide the best of both approach- based. Though handset companies announced 5G-enabled smart- es: direct short-range communication in unlicensed bands phones in mid-2019, the first releases of these high-end handsets and long-range communication with coexisting 4G and 5G, arrived in the second-half of 2019. while also supporting ad-hoc vehicle communication in situ- ations with no cellular coverage. With that said, major 5G deployments across the globe, implement- ► In this line, according to Groupe Speciale Mobile Association ed by Tier-1 mobile network operators and market-leading network (GSMA) Europe and the Fifth Generation Automobile vendors, are underway. The foremost example is the 5G launch in Association, or 5GAA (GSMA 2019), C-V2X technology is po- the Republic of Korea (Samsung 2019), with Samsung as infrastruc- sitioned to radically transform the transport sector and how ture vendor, and all three Korean mobile operators sharing the 5G vehicles and drivers interact with the most vulnerable road deployment costs, which will generate an estimated US$1 billion users such as pedestrians and cyclists. savings over a decade. In April 2019 5G covered dense urban ar- ► C-V2X will also be instrumental in digitizing transportation eas in 85 Korean cities, increasing availability of immersive media, by providing highly-reliable, real-time information flows to cloud and virtual reality (VR) gaming and many other 5G services improve road safety, traffic efficiency, and environmental for general customers, with autonomous vehicles emerging as a safety. key strategic service. The successful reception of 5G unlimited ► China is leading the deployment of C-V2X with more than 20 data plans and compelling 5G services (5G subscriber numbers are trials and pilot C-V2X projects taking place across 100 ki- currently estimated at over 4 million) predicts a complete nation- lometers of roads in 10 provinces (5GAA 2019). The United wide coverage within the next two to three years in the Republic of States is gaining impulse, with Ford committed to deploy- Korea, by mid-2022. On the technological side (chipsets, network ing C-V2X in all new U.S. vehicle models beginning in 2022, equipment, core, and even software tools), this accomplishment and joint demonstrations with Ducati and Qualcomm could be attributed to a key factor: the high interoperability of the Technologies (Ducati 2019) with a four-way stop use case introduced novel infrastructure. For example, in the existing Korean providing insights on the level of cooperative driving possi- carrier cellular sites, backward compatibility with 4G is normal ble with C-V2X. In Europe, ubiquitous support is expected, when migrating from 4G to 5G, in order to protect previous invest- for example, Bosch, Huawei, and Vodafone Germany suc- ments from operators, while 5G core solutions are virtualized to cessfully tested C-V2X on the A9 freeway in Germany, using support legacy 4G and next-generation 5G services. pre-standard 5G networks (Huawei 2018). With the global 5G rollout still in its infancy worldwide, and as trans- ► A good summary of the increasing capabilities and superior port’s use of such technology will rely on wide network availability, performance possible with C-V2X can be read in Qualcomm it is too early to draw a comprehensive set of lessons. However, (2017), where Qualcomm reports that 4G C-V2X and 5G globally, 4G C-V2X technology is commercially available today, C-V2X have great support for target use cases, allowing for and experience with ongoing pilots on Advanced Driver Assistance the possibility of high-speed mobility with increased com- Systems (ADAS) using 4G enabled technologies offers some in- munication range and typically more frequent transmissions. sights. Main conclusions include:: These results anticipate that 5G C-V2X will play a critical role in enabling the deployment of fully autonomous vehicles, ► Recent testing confirms that the range and reliability of which will ultimately transform the transport sector. C-V2X communication between vehicles is enhanced in 76 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport R EFER ENCES 5GAA (5G Automobile Association). 2018. “V2X Functional and Performance Test Huawei. 2018. “Huawei Collaborates with Vodafone and Bosch to Enable Smart Report; Test Procedures and Results.” Technical Report P-190033. 5GAA, Cars to Communicate with Each Other.” Press Release, March 14. Accessed Munich, Germany. Accessed June 2020. https://5Gaa.org/wp-content/ June 2020. https://www.huawei.com/en/press-events/news/2018/3/ uploads/2018/11/5GAA_P-190033_V2X-Functional-and-Performance-Test- Huawei-Vodafone-Bosch-Smart-Cars. Report_final-1.pdf. Qualcomm. 2017. “Accelerating C-V2X Commercialization.” Accessed June 2020. 5GAA (5G Automobile Association). 2019. “5GAA Brings Together Key Actors https://www.qualcomm.com/media/documents/files/accelerating-c-v2x-com- to Share Advances on C-V2X Deployment in China at MWC Shanghai mercialization.pdf. 2019.” Press Release, June 27. Accessed June 2020. https://5Gaa.org/ Samsung. 2019. “Case Study: 5G Launches in Korea—Volume 1: Key Success Factors news/5Gaa-brings-together-key-actors-to-share-advances-on-c-v2x-deploy- for Early 5G Launch.” White Paper. Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., Gyeonggi- ment-in-china-at-mwc-shanghai-2019/. do, Korea. Accessed June 2020. https://images.samsung.com/is/content/ Ducati. 2019. “Ducati Presents, Together with Audi and Ford, Car-to-Bike samsung/p5/global/business/networks/insights/white-paper/5G-launches-in- Communication Technology at CES in Las Vegas.” Ducati.com (UK site), January korea-get-a-taste-of-the-future/5G-in-Korea-Vol-1-Get-a-taste-of-the-future. 8. Accessed June 2020. https://www.ducati.com/gb/en/news/ducati-presents- pdf. together-with-audi-and-ford-car-to-bike-communication-tech. Udall, Tom. 2018. “Udall, Senators: Self-Driving Car Bill Needs Stronger Safety GSMA (Groupe Speciale Mobile Association). 2019. “C-V2X, the Future of Measures, Consumer Protections.” Press Release, March 14. Accessed May Connected Transport, is Live Today.” Press Release, September 2020. https://www.tomudall.senate.gov/news/press-releases/udall-senators- 13. Accessed June 2020. https://www.gsma.com/gsmaeurope/ self-driving-car-bill-needs-stronger-safety-measures-consumer-protections. whats-new/c-v2x-the-future-of-connected-transport-is-live-today/. Challenges and Lessons Learned 77 09 POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 78 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport According to the McKinsey Global Institute (Grijpink et al 2020), only a quarter of the global population will have access to 5G coverage by 2030. Still, the opportunity that the fifth-generation (5G) mobile network will bring to the global economy will reduce the unconnected or underconnected population (with only 2G service) from 40 percent today to 20 percent by 2030. In spite of this progress, more than 300 million people, mostly in rural areas of low-income countries, could still lack network coverage. Wireless technologies have still connected the whole world, and to plug into the global flows of information, greater human potential disparities among countries persist. Apart from the countries lead- and prosperity would be unlocked in many developing countries. ing deployment of 5G (Republic of Korea, United States and Japan), The potential of 5G in transport is enormous, but certainly the chal- China, Canada, and the European Union are currently deploying in lenges are huge too, and the risk of 5G and connected autonomous selected major cities. India has modernized its mobile networks at vehicle (CAV) technology failing to reach all developing countries an incredible speed, but 5G connectivity is expected in its major represents a significant threat. urban cities only. However, the main risk lies in the continuing wid- ening of the urban-rural connectivity gap within countries. If policy With previous mobile generations, mobile network operators makers do not intervene, operators will naturally limit their network (MNOs) typically aimed for nationwide or near-nationwide cover- deployments to the areas where they can earn the most from their age. However, the huge costs of deploying 5G, combined with the capital investment. The financial situation and market maturity will expectations of reduced incremental revenue, mean that full cover- determine each country’s timeline for deployment. If we look at the age will be difficult to achieve in low-income countries, at least with past history and extrapolate the deployment pace of 4G, the first 5G the revenue models available today. Nevertheless, the vast majority deployments in developing countries will likely happen between the of technologies leveraging 5G for the transport sector will require end of 2021 and beginning of 2022. This does not represent an issue extensive rollout of 5G across a wide area. As such, the opportu- for transport sector since the connectivity will run in parallel with nity to leverage these technologies for development impacts in the appearance of connected vehicles, but still, any further delay some lower income countries may be quite limited, with only a few at this point could potentially affect the economic growth 5G could countries—such as China and those in Eastern Europe—expecting bring to low-income countries. rollout in the coming years. Connectivity implies a window of hope for economic growth in de- Closing these divides between high-income and low-income coun- veloping countries. By 2030, many areas without connectivity will tries requires the public sector or other private investors to support have the opportunity to gain global connectivity via 5G or older net- nationwide coverage to ensure the CAV successful penetration. works, bringing billions of people online. By enabling more people Indeed, developing countries need to find additional revenue growth Potential Applications in Developing Countries 79 for MNOs from different sources, not only private end customers, of goods on a real-time basis, and more. Such solutions may build to increase returns and justify the effort of connectivity upgrades upon offerings already available through 4G services by expanding and new deployments imposed by national-wide 5G coverage. In the detail, timeliness, and reliability of the information provided. fact, new players are expected to become connectivity providers, Other applications will provide improved information for transport ranging from broadcast infrastructure companies to technological systems and decision makers, for instance, using the improved giants, such as Facebook or Google. Also, third-party logistics (3PL) richness of available data to guide traffic control or dynamic pub- players could build their own private networks, mainly to cover last- lic transport routing, to enable multimodal and streamlined public mile connectivity services. transport ticketing. This could even support the creation of conges- tion tolls that would tax the negative externalities and co-finance Apart from using the transport business to drive revenue increase, the development of infrastructure. network sharing should be augmented to reduce the cost of 5G deployment. The adoption of innovative business models enabled Another type of application that might develop in the relative short by innovations such as network slicing (which enables the same term in developing countries are those with limited spatial cover- physical network infrastructure to deliver dedicated capacity for age. In cities, for instance, 5G coverage could allow for improved different services) should be promoted by public bodies to help traffic control systems, parking management, real-time data collec- guarantee widespread 5G coverage. In addition, with the potential tion and dispatch of emergency services, infrastructure monitoring, savings of 50 percent in energy consumption, CAV could be the per- and more. Urban public transport, in particular, could benefit from fect reason to deploy 5G, though the question remains when those a targeted 5G network, providing customers the types of services cars will be available. mentioned above, as well as improved infotainment options, dy- namic routing, and potentially autonomous buses. Indeed, even where an extensive rollout is possible, the long lifes- pan of vehicles (and the tendency for older vehicles to stay on Similar to the above, logistics services may be built out in discrete the roads longer in developing countries) suggest that reaching a geographies, leveraging limited coverage where possible. In some critical mass of connected vehicles in developing countries is po- cases, the deployment of limited 5G networks could be driven tentially decades away. Indeed, in the United States, the average by the transport sector itself, such as in ports or along rail lines. lifespan of a vehicle on the road today is almost 12 years, and even Logistics companies may also drive investment in 5G in specific if the industry were to begin manufacturing only connected 5G ve- localities to align local systems, global value chains, and systems hicles, it would still take more than 20 years to replace the entire where a business case is justified. In cities, urban delivery compa- vehicle fleet with CAVs. The focus should then be on 2040. Putting nies will continue to innovate their offerings, and will build on the aside the self-driving capabilities, according to McKinsey (Grijpink potential benefits of 5G networks as they come online. et al 2020), by 2030 connected vehicles—likely connected via wireless access in vehicular environments (WAVE), long-term evo- lution (LTE), or 5G—will be 100 percent in Europe and the United Affordability and accessibility States, mostly due to regulation, and around 90 percent in China. Governments and the private sector will need to find ways to de- However, focusing on the rest of the world, the percentage of con- ploy infrastructure in the most cost-efficient manner. Infrastructure nected vehicles in 2030 will be less than 40 percent. sharing is key to reducing costs related to the implementation of 5G and the intelligent transport services related to its deployment A focus on handheld applications, public transport, through PPP-style contracts. Additionally, public transport opera- and logistics tors and authorities can reduce the costs of running the services by providing more efficient services in response to real-time demand Due to the likely delay in rollout of connected vehicles and the lim- management when using the new technology features more readily ited coverage, two potential applications of 5G in transport may available with 5G than with 4G. And finally, all those efficiency gains dominate in developing countries in the short to medium term: (1) can reflect in having a better service with lower or equal tariffs com- mobile phone-based solutions and (2) interventions covering lim- pared with today, although better demand management of ticketing ited spatial areas. and smart card systems can ensure that the most vulnerable peo- ple can have access to subsidies to ensure the system remains Phone-based applications are already being developed to address affordable for all users. a number of challenges facing transport users. One potential use case involves those tools to collect and share information with us- Emerging countries will need to develop their digital skills to re- ers, such as enhanced passenger information systems in public duce the gap when deploying the 5G network, but with the right transport, communication of road hazards, real-time information set of skills and innovation-friendly policies, other countries on urban mobility options, improved emergency services, tracking can show that leapfrogging the transport and mobility sectors is 80 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport possible; innovative companies can become global by adapting from connected mobility could improve job creation all around the local solutions to other environments, thus creating jobs and pro- city neighborhoods, envisioning the 15 minutes’ city idea, rather viding economic growth in the digital and mobility sectors. The lack than keeping the radial structure of concentrating jobs and wealth of new jobs and economic growth would eventually become the in the CBD. 5G-enabled mobility will ensure that cities can reserve cost of not deploying the 5G network, as failing to develop the dig- much more space for pedestrians and cyclists, allowing many city ital and mobility sectors would deepen the digital gap in between centers to appear if 5G and a strong set of policies are developed. countries worldwide. This type of urban fabric connects with the literature studying mo- bility of low-income people or the mobility of women—comprising In those countries as well, the geographical barriers of 5G coverage a higher percentage of public transport users—who often elect not in low-income areas will need to be considered by the government to work in certain areas of the city because of lengthy and danger- and the private sector when deploying infrastructure and services, ous commutes.1 5G-enabled mobility will provide more efficient keeping in mind that people generally have a high willingness to pay public transport services, accessible and affordable Mobility as a for mobile connectivity. In addition, the accessibility of jobs and Service (MaaS), and especially, with the right policies set in motion, services in low-income areas can be associated with the lack of 5G can change the way our cities are designed, bringing jobs and jobs and opportunities in those specific areas, rather than with the services within the reach of all neighborhoods. availability of public transport to the city’s central business district (CBD). Teleworking and new mobility patterns that might evolve Potential Applications in Developing Countries 81 APPLICABILITY TO TH E SU STAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS Providing universal and affordable access to the Internet in least developed countries is one of the targets of Sustainable Development Goal 9; however, it is not the only goal in which the role of the 5G could be crucial. Box 9.1 outlines some of the clearest contributions. BOX 9.1. How 5G Applies to the SDGs Safe roads for passengers and drivers can save a family from plunging into poverty after losing the income earner. In low-income countries, the majority of poor people are farmers. By improving the transport infrastructure, the variety of goods sold at market can be increased, which encourages farmers to sell their products to bigger markets. In addition, improving the efficiency of urban transport systems will reduce transport costs for residents, providing lower-cost access to more jobs and services than before. As most food waste in developing countries happens during transport from farm to market, providing interventions to improve the availability of reliable and sustainable transport can have a real impact on food security. In developing countries, 45 percent of the land area is located more than five hours away from the main market, while the local agriculture only covers food needs (Seiber 2009). Moreover, traders, using a hired vehicle, incur three times the cost for traveling on a gravel track compared with traveling on a paved road. Therefore, improving the connectivity and the transport quality could reduce distribution costs, while at the same time enhancing the supply chain of food, avoid- ing food losses during its transportation to far destinations. The implementation of a well-planned transport network can increase road safety and reduce the amount of traffic road crashes. As outlined previously, one of the most important potential impacts of 5G in transport could be to reduce the incidence of traffic-related collisions, potentially saving more than a million lives a year, and preventing tens of millions of non-fatal injuries (WHO 2020). Moreover, air pollution can be decreased by reducing demand for transport and improving its efficiency. 5G-enabled transport has the potential to increase global GDP by more than US$200 billion by 2030 (Jonsson et al 2019), while improving outcomes for transport users. Avoiding traffic conges- tion has a direct impact on the economy due to time and fuel wastage in slow traffic, as well as reducing the effective access to job opportunities. Therefore, good quality, efficient, and affordable transport promotes inclusive growth and a strong business environment. Transport is intricately linked with climate change through direct reduction of CO2 emission and other greenhouse gases. As elaborated previously, the deployment of CAVs and other 5G-enabled appli- cations has the potential to substantively reduce GHG emissions. Moreover, efficient road planning favors time-saving paths and reduces fuel consumption. In terms of adaptation to climate change, the real-time data, smart logistics, and dynamic routing empowered through 5G applications provide an opportunity for improved resilience and disaster response. 82 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport POLICY IM PLICATIONS Flexible software development and licensing A general problem creating issues for the public sector, when con- How these applications develop, whether they reach the poorest sidering its approach toward innovation, is the past experience of countries and regions, and whether they have a clearly positive im- using obsolete and outdated equipment with closed protocols and pact in the transport sector or not, will be driven by how the policy licensed software with closed codes. Currently, some of the most environment evolves. The policy recommendations are therefore innovative companies are relying on free software or third-party organized in the following questions raised by World Bank clients developers for support, as well as for open protocols and open with respect to required actions: codes. However, rigid rules for procurement make this path partic- ularly difficult for the government. Many government agencies face ► impacts on public transport in urban areas and use of urban a lack of available and up-to-date software licenses for the number space of technicians needed to perform the work, which leads them to ► flexible software development and licensing abandon potentially viable innovative solutions. ► network ownership ► infrastructure sharing When deploying 5G for transport, cities should find ways to move ► spectrum sharing to this “free and open” standard for equipment and software, or ► data governance partner with private companies to profit as much as possible from ► the market ecosystem already deployed innovations. For instance, traffic lights not cen- ► public-private partnerships tralized and connected to traffic centers, bus validators for travel cards, or ticket systems still using closed protocols make it diffi- cult for control boards to communicate with each other, or with Impacts on public transport in urban areas and offline ticketing systems. The public sector must rely on efficient use of urban space third-party collaborators to help them innovate and use all avail- able data in the city to provide more efficient mobility management Cities and countries need to set up efficient incentives and regula- and planning. Without start-ups and digital disruptions, without tions to ensure that public transport agencies, operators, and users the latest cloud-based software, new modalities of transport man- have a more innovative approach in their decisions. With the advent agement and new modalities of payment will not be possible. The of 5G, the public sector can set legal and financial incentives and City of London’s partnership with a digital company to develop a ease the regulatory framework for the public transport companies new system and participate in future profits could be replicated to and private MaaS operators to obtain real-time video and data (em- foster innovation elsewhere. Especially when thinking ahead to the powered through 5G) from buses or other vehicles, to help ensure next ten years (and beyond) of mobility, cities should keep these better monitoring and enforcement in an open and dynamic envi- partnerships with innovative companies in mind. The public sector ronment. This is something that many public transport agencies must incorporate innovation-friendly approaches when deploying failed to do during the 4G era, but might be able to modernize and 5G for transport in the middle and long-term, or risk losing its trans- adapt during the 5G rollout, allowing real-time video transmission port users to the more connectivity-minded and user friendly MaaS from vehicles to control centers. options. The unregulated growth of CAVs threatens the urban transport fab- ric, as the potential for empty miles could lead to more congestion, Network ownership erode the value proposition, and render the traditional congestion mitigation measures ineffectual. 5G has a role to play in developing Certain models for alternative network ownership, such as the mi- new models by allowing data to travel more quickly between sen- cro-operator and private network concepts, relate to the provision sors and the cloud and across various databases in order to enable of local connectivity only. Therefore, they do not meet the transport and subsequently enforce new congestion restriction models (for sector requirement for a broader reach. However, other non-lo- example, restricting the number of CAVs entering cities, or auto- cal network ownership models are more suited for the transport matically prioritizing denser modes in moving through city streets). sector, for instance, in some higher-income countries, multiple The ultimate goal of such policies should be to eventually reduce operators will deploy independent networks. In others, likely mid- the share of urban space used by vehicles and devolve the space to dle-income countries, multiple operators will deploy connectivity pedestrians and other uses. over shared networks, implementing different types of sharing (see a more detailed description below). In lower-income countries, where identifying mobile network operators (MNOs) interested in assuming huge deployments costs can be difficult, a neutral host—often the road operator, broadcasting company, or even the Potential Applications in Developing Countries 83 government—could provide infrastructure for virtual MNOs. A pri- implementation, it is less financially beneficial than some options. ori, there is no optimal choice, but the assessment must be made Other sharing alternatives provide greater cost savings, though they on a case-by-case basis. A number of factors, such as population also bring their own challenges, some of them regulatory. For ex- density, scarcity of available deployment sites, timing of the net- ample, ensuring competition within the network is a key point for work deployment or the highway construction, and network sharing regulators, and sharing agreements will likely require approval. regulations, among others, have an impact on the suitability of one Additionally, network operation is more complex. Other common solution over another. issue is that some sharing implies a long-term commitment be- tween MNOs, which be a roadblock for some operators. Another It is, however, important to highlight that, even if the large investment challenge is ensuring a consistent quality of services provided requirement presents a significant entrance barrier, the opportuni- across the MNOs sharing resources. ty to include transport use cases as mechanisms to introduce new sources of incomes can serve as an immense incentive for opera- Infrastructure sharing can also involve issues with network resil- tors to accelerate deployment. In addition, as explained earlier, the ience against failures in individual network nodes, as the reduced 5G network slicing technology makes the role of neutral operators number of independent networks implies a lower capacity of us- especially interesting, offering connectivity to infrastructure-less ers to access communication services if individual networks fail. operators. This is where governments can also take measures to However, on the other hand, infrastructure sharing enables the pro- deploy networks that allow small operators to deploy with a lower vision of better connection quality by each MNO, if they invest the investment risk, thus reducing the capital investment cycles. cost savings derived from network sharing in the improvement of their equipment. This improved quality comes with higher network On the other hand, OpenRAN (learn more at https://telecom- reliability and capacity. infraproject.com/openran/) represents a promising option for reducing cost even further and including new players (Abeta et al Additionally, and with clear implications for transport, backhauling 2019). The OpenRAN technology challenges the dominance of the sharing models whereby fiber optic cables are deployed in a coor- traditional big vendors and allows baseband units to run virtually dinated way along other network infrastructure. These “dig once” on any general-purpose hardware. This, together with a collabora- policies allow significant cost reductions for the deployment of fiber tive community providing software development and support, has optic infrastructure. While certain areas have existing optical fiber created a competitive and innovative ecosystem for 5G. OpenRAN backhaul deployed along roads, commercial agreements are typ- technology is already being considered in 2020, with several big ically hard to manage, and new regulations are needed to ensure operators undertaking trials, to explore security concerns and ex- this sharing remains accessible to the transport sector and to the amine the code more closely. conventional MNOs. In any case, sharing options should be encour- aged to reduce additional deployment costs. Of course, this sharing could work the other way around too, making the deployment for Infrastructure sharing road coverage much cheaper. Undoubtedly, infrastructure sharing between telecom operators is Finally, and in preparation for use in 2030, any plans for large trans- beneficial for the transport sector due to the implied cost reduc- portation infrastructure must from now on include considerations tion, which, as explained above, could foster investment for 5G for 5G. The use case of the roadways is evident. Since future roads network deployment. This network deployment is needed in some must be connected, and have roadside units along the whole track developing regions to provide basic coverage, but also in more to enable wireless transmission of ITS messages, fiber optic runs developed regions to provide Day 3 automation services not sup- along the road, with separate transmission points between 1,500 ported by current deployments. and 4,000 meters. In addition, fiber optics must be deployed in parallel to the roadway to prepare the infrastructure for a later de- Such telecom Infrastructure sharing may take different forms, from ployment of the 5G. Similarly, any rail track must be equipped with the sharing of passive infrastructure (physical sites and power sys- parallel optical fiber and transmission points, to connect trains and tems, for instance), to the sharing of the radio access network’s sensors to the train management system. Finally, in case of invest- electronic infrastructure (for example, antennas, transceivers, ing in the implementation of traffic lights at the cross junctions in and others) and core network (servers, for example). Each specific type of sharing comes with its own issues. Passive sharing is the less challenging mode, though its main issue is the additional free From now on, all railway structures, space required at physical sites for placing equipment from differ- ent operators. Nevertheless, finding enough space is not an issue in roads, and signaling elements in case of new deployments, which can be dimensioned according to cities should take into account the needs imposed by sharing. Though passive sharing offers easy questions of connectivity 84 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport urban or interurban roads, they too should be connected, because Spectrum allocation is the first 5G transmission points at intersections are essential to preventing obstacle that governments accidents and improving traffic flow. have to overcome Spectrum sharing BOX 9.2. The First Obstacle: Spectrum Allocation More important for the transport sector is that regulatory uncer- 5G will reach its full potential if and only if sufficient harmo- tainty should be resolved as soon as possible. Spectrum availability, nized spectrum is allocated in a timely way and with long-term access rights to public infrastructure, and power supply are chal- license duration. Developing countries should allocate spec- lenges that could prevent mobile network operators from meeting trum without the intention of doing business, but rather the required deployment needs. Moreover, regulation on spectrum offering it in exchange for the investment entrance that allows sharing and power density could also have a major implication on for the public-private partnerships (PPP) offering greatest the entrance of investors as well as the timeframe for deployment benefit to society. in the country. Regarding specific spectrum, the globally harmonized 5.9 The issue of sharing the ITS spectrum, has yet to be addressed, gigahertz (GHz) band (5,855 to 5,925 megahertz (MHz) should since to date the assigned ITS spectrum is unlicensed, although the be first be allocated to intelligent transportation systems assignment of new spectrum for Day 3 services is being studied and (ITS) services. Other bands, mainly the 700, 800, or 900 MHz the option of a shared spectrum is on the table. The main issues sur- bands, could be used to support vehicle-to-network (V2N) rounding spectrum sharing are also related to regulation. Sharing communications, required to reduce the deployment costs for agreements may need the approval of national regulatory agencies most of the envisioned 5G services. Cellular coverage exten- (NRAs), and spectrum sharing implies a high level of sharing subject sion at these bands will not only be important for ITS services, to this control. NRA must ensure the effective competition between but will also be helpful to provide coverage in rural areas, and the operators, the quality of the connectivity provision, and the ef- thus ensure greater penetration of the general 5G service in ficient use of the spectrum. In addition, in case of resource pooling, the population. that is, the same spectrum is used by several operators via some type of stock market, variation of licensing terms could be needed. Due to the high deployment cost, the millimeter bands are The difficult articulation of the shared spectrum, especially when not recommended for use with vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) it comes to nodes in continuous mobility, raises doubts about its communications in developing countries, although their use possible application in the specific field of transport. for vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) or vehicle-to-pedestrian (V2P) applications will depend on the development of the industry. Data governance The digitalization of transport raises important questions concern- The points above raise important questions of user privacy. Given ing how data is generated, managed, stored, and used. One of the that most of this data will be related to location and personal use, overarching themes characterizing the transport sector is that data the need for a strong policy of data privacy will become even more will become increasingly central to the planning, operations, and important. Tools, such as the creation of digital data trusts, will be monitoring of the transport system, underscoring the importance needed to provide privacy for users while, at the same time, allow- of having a strong data governance structure in place early in the ing data to be used in an effective way. The massive adoption of process. Internet of Things (IoT) devices, combined with the proliferation of 5G, will generate large amounts of data that could be mined by In terms of data sharing, open data standards are important to transport sector players. This presents opportunities to leverage allow all stakeholders to leverage the growing data availability. this type of big data for improved planning and management in the For example, logistics and shipping providers identify that supply transport sector, and with clear privacy regulations in place, for chain visibility is one of the biggest challenges for logistics today. monetization and use in the industry. However, having the data made available is only the first part of a longer challenge of end-to-end supply chain visualization. Without clear data standards, sharing, and collaboration between the differ- Market ecosystem ent actors in the network, the advancements in technology will not effectively benefit the widest range of users. The 5G era is expected to usher in the entry of new types of ser- vices and players. Indeed, the 5G ecosystem will transform the Potential Applications in Developing Countries 85 traditional transport chain into the future of autonomous vehicles With respect to 5G, to date, governments around the world have (AVs). This technological race does not only involve vehicle man- followed various PPP approaches aimed at encouraging the deploy- ufacturers and Tier-1 suppliers, but also involves new sectors such ment of 5G. In some countries, direct investment and subsidies as road infrastructure companies, technology companies, and 5G for operators have been applied, like in the United States, with the network infrastructure providers. According to Grijpink et al (2020) US$9 billion 5G subsidy program for rural America. In others, the in the next decade, three scenarios could be developed: (1) vehi- support is offered through extensive investment in research and cle manufacturers and their suppliers establish platform alliances development (R&D) programs, such as the 5G Infrastructure Public- to share research and development (R&D) and deployment costs, Private Partnership (5G-PPP) a joint initiative between the European while retaining ownership of a common operating system and data Commission and European ICT industry (https://5G-ppp.eu/). In platform, (2) a major technology player or a group of technology another example, the World Bank is supporting the municipality of players dominate the market for vehicle operating systems and São Paulo (Brazil) to understand the feasibility of establishing a PPP cloud services, and (3) multiple technological players compete with around infrastructure sharing to deploy 5G infrastructure along the their own functional platforms, with a smaller ecosystem revolving renovation and modernization of the city’s traffic lights network, around each. which includes connecting it to a centralized monitoring and con- trol center. Lastly, in other cases, PPPs models have initiated more As for emerging market players such as automotive and spare parts indirect action, for example through accelerating spectrum auc- manufacturers, they could consider adopting open platforms and tions and allocating spectrum chunks with reasonable conditions. hardware, using application developers and other partners with complementary capabilities to provide CAV-related services. On Box 9.3 highlights the role of PPP collaboration in deploying 5G in the other hand, 5G infrastructure providers must expand their developing countries. vision of providing a basic connectivity service and develop spe- cific services and new applications for the transport sector. The technology-driven convergence of sectors will also introduce new In developing countries, private players into other aspects of the transport system. For instance, the increasing adoption of smart payment systems in transit networks public collaboration is essential has already begun to introduce financial institutions as an integral part of the systems themselves. With the growth of smart con- BOX 9.3. 5G and Public–Private Collaboration in nectivity and mobile money, telecom companies may increasingly Developing Countries become intrinsically connected to transport systems. Innovative business approaches and incentivized investments However, car manufacturers, suppliers, technology, and infrastruc- are needed in developing countries to support mobile oper- ture players as well as service providers have not yet captured the ators as they expand to meet specific connectivity needs in full value of connectivity, whether in terms of revenue, safety, or the transport sector. PPP models should be explored, in which operational efficiency. Thus, the underlying challenge is the devel- cooperation agreements comprising at least two or more opment of new connected services that will require companies to stakeholders from the same or different sectors might need to take a different organizational approach, forcing them to move away be consolidated to share the passive or active infrastructure from rigid and isolated operations toward a flexible and dynamic network elements. The 5G-PPP in Europe is a great example to market where industry 4.0 could play a fundamental role. follow (learn more at https://5G-ppp.eu). 5G technology, thanks to its concept of network slicing, al- Public-Private Partnerships lows the deployment of neutral operators, who offer various services (potentially operated by different actors), while A Public-Private Partnership (PPP) is considered a form of struc- sharing the same infrastructure. This type of infrastructure tured cooperation between public and private parties in the sharing heavily reduces costs of deployment and operation planning, construction, and exploitation of infrastructural facilities and breaks the barriers for the entrance of network opera- in which they share or reallocate risks, costs, benefits, resources, tors. In this context, governments could offer an economically and responsibilities. This model has been effectively implemented profitable ecosystem, with benefits for both private and public worldwide and used extensively in the construction of toll roads, sector stakeholders. where a government grants a license for exploitation to a private company, which then deploys and manages an effective toll-road communication infrastructure. 86 Envisioning 5G-Enabled Transport NOTES R EFER ENCES 1. See the World Bank blog post, “Building Equality into Intelligent Abeta, Sadayuki, Toshiro Kawahara, Anil Umesh, and Ryusuke Matsukawa. 2019. Transport Systems in China,” available online at https://blogs. “O-RAN Alliance Standardization Trends.” NTT DOCOMO Technical Journal 21 worldbank.org/eastasiapacific/building-gender-equality-into-intelli- (1): 38–45. Accessed June 2020. https://www.nttdocomo.co.jp/english/binary/ gent-transport-systems-in-china. pdf/corporate/technology/rd/technical_journal/bn/vol21_1/vol21_1_006en.pdf. See also: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ Grijpink, Ferry, Eric Kutcher, Alexandre Ménard, Sree Ramaswamy, Davide Schiavotto, en/2016/09/26796511/assessment-gender-impacts-2016f James Manyika, Michael Chui, Rob Hamill, and Emir Okan. 2020. “Connected World: An Evolution in Connectivity Beyond the 5G Revolution.” McKinsey Global Institute Discussion Paper. McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey. com/industries/technology-media-and-telecommunications/our-insights/ connected-world-an-evolution-in-connectivity-beyond-the-5G-revolution. Jonsson, Peter, Stephen Carson, Greger Blennerud, Jason Kyohun Shim, Brian Arendse, Ahmad Husseini, Per Lindberg, and Kati Öhman. 2019. “Ericsson Mobility Report November 2019.” Ericsson, Stockholm. Accessed May 2020. https://www.ericsson.com/en/mobility-report/reports/november-2019. Seiber, Niklas. 2009. Freight Transport for Development Toolkit: Rural Freight. Infrastructure Study. Report 57969. Washington, DC: World Bank. Accessed June 2020. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/140791468315544452/. WHO (World Health Organization). 2020. “Fact Sheet: Road Traffic Injuries.” who.int, February 7. Accessed May 2020. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/ detail/road-traffic-injuries. Potential Applications in Developing Countries 87