GROUNDSWELL AFRICA INTERNAL CLIMATE MIGRATION IN THE LAKE VICTORIA BASIN THE RESULTS 16.6 - 38.5 million internal climate migrants in the Lake Victoria Basin countries by 2050. 30% reduction in internal climate migrants across the Basin countries by 2050 with concrete climate and development action. Climate migration hotspots could emerge as early as 2030 in the Basin countries and continue to intensify by 2050. The population migration model and analysis combine climate and nonclimate factors— expanding the Groundswell approach—to better inform policy dialogue and action. Water availability Sea level rise and storm surge Crop productivity Median age Ecosystem productivity Sex Flood risk Conflict LOCALITY AND CONTEXT MATTER Internal climate migration is not uniform across countries. Some areas will be more adversely impacted by climate change than others. The optimistic scenario (inclusive development and low emissions) yields lower numbers of internal climate migrants than the pessimistic scenario (high emissions and unequal development). Internal climate migrants by 2050 Tanzania Uganda Kenya Rwanda Pessimistic Burundi Optimistic 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Millions Climate in- and out-migration hotspots could expand and intensify by 2050 KENYA Climate 2050 in-migration could emerge in response to positive crop and UGANDA precipitation trends KENYA in Eldoret, and due to precipitation LAKE VICTORIA increases in the RWANDA northeast. Coastal areas in Mombasa BURUNDI could witness climate out-migration. TANZANIA TANZANIA Climate out-migration could emerge in the south and coastal areas (Dar es Salaam). Climate in-migration Illustrative map could emerge around the lake and coincide climate out-migration climate in-migration hotspots hotspots with areas of high poverty incidence. UGANDA Kampala RWANDA Climate BURUNDI Climate and areas around in-migration could migration hotspots Lake Victoria could occur near Kigali could emerge away emerge as in-migration; and in the north from Lake Tanganyika, and Lake Albert and in response to while climate the northwest could increases in in-migration could emerge as climate precipitation. emerge towards out-migration Out-migration could central areas and hotspots. emerge in the south. Gitega in response to increased crop yields. Climate migration hotspots are not predestined. Early and concrete climate and development action can reduce adverse impacts and harness opportunities for jobs and economic growth. TAKING RESULTS TO ACTION Migration and Climate-Informed Solutions (MACS) Climate-Smart Opportunities for Migration with Proactive Core Policy Areas and Action Domains and Sustainable Solutions (COMPASS) Conduct spatio-temporal Adopt farsighted analytics on climate landscape and migration hotspots territorial approaches Improve Cut understanding greenhouse on migration gases Domesticate Harness climate policies and migration for jobs bridge legal gaps Pursue inclusive, Embed and economic climate-resilient, migration in transitions and green development development Nurture humanitarian- development-peace partnerships Core Policy Areas CUT GREENHOUSE GASES EMBED ALL PHASES OF to reduce climate pressure CLIMATE MIGRATION IN on people’s livelihoods and DEVELOPMENT PLANNING the associated scale of to adapt in place, enable climate migration. mobility, and provide post migration support. PURSUE INCLUSIVE, CLIMATE-RESILIENT, AND IMPROVE UNDERSTANDING GREEN DEVELOPMENT to OF INTERNAL CLIMATE anticipate and equitably MIGRATION to contextualize respond to the needs and comprehend climate of climate migrants migration, particularly at and communities. regional to local scales. Action Domains Exemplified for the Lake Victoria Basin countries CONDUCT SPATIO- EMBRACE LANDSCAPE AND TEMPORAL ANALYTICS TERRITORIAL APPROACHES to gauge the emergence to enable early planning and of climate migration action across spatial and time hotspots in poverty pockets scales for climate out-migration and growth centers, for hotspots (coastal areas in challenges and opportunities, Kenya and Tanzania) and with a focus on cities, the climate in-migration hotspots periphery of Lake Victoria, (Lake Victoria periphery) which and coastal areas. may be more viable. HARNESS CLIMATE- NURTURE DEVELOPMENT- INDUCED MIGRATION FOR HUMANITARIAN-PEACE JOBS AND ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIPS to capitalize TRANSITIONS to leverage on comparative advantages growth and development to support the needs of opportunities based on migrants and host communities. countries’ youth bulge, structural transformations, DOMESTICATE POLICIES and investment in human AND BRIDGE LEGAL GAPS capital for green growth in response to existing legal in all the Basin countries. frameworks, agreements, and processes, and mobilize action, for example through the Kampala Convention. This work was conducted with support received from AFRI-RES, GIZ, WACA, and the World Bank. WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/EN/PROGRAMS/AFRICA-CLIMATE-BUSINESS-PLAN