63158 Commodity Markets Review April 12, 2011 DECPG, The World Bank Non-energy commodity prices fell in March Agriculture prices dropped 4.9 percent in for the first time in nine months, down 4.8 March, the first decline in ten months, with percent, despite depreciation of the dollar— large decreases in all main indices except down 2.7 percent versus the euro. There were beverages and timber. The largest declines were large declines in nearly all main indices. in coconut and palmkernel oil prices, down 14- Crude oil prices surged 11.0 percent in 15 percent, on reduced import demand. Rubber March, up for an eighth straight month, prices declined 13 percent due to concerns of averaging $108.6/bbl. Prices rose even higher in weakening demand in Japan, while sugar prices early April, reaching $119/bbl (with Brent at fell 11 percent on improved supply availability. $127/bbl) due to the near total-loss of Libya’s Wheat prices fell 9 percent on higher planting 1.6 mb/d in oil production and continued intentions in the U.S. Partly offsetting these political unrest in North Africa and the Middle gains was an 8 percent increase in robusta coffee East. About 0.1 mb/d was shut in March from prices due to continued supply tightness in unrest and strikes in Yemen, Oman, Gabon and Vietnam from dry weather. Cotton prices rose Côte d’Ivoire, but market anxiety attaches the by 8 percent on low stocks and supply shortfalls. possibility of larger disruptions in major oil Metals and minerals prices fell 4.8 percent producing countries, including Nigeria in the in March, following seven months of gains, on run-up to elections later this month (about 1.0 various macro-economic concerns, higher oil mb/d was disrupted during the 2007 election prices, and policy tightening in China. The campaign). largest decline was in iron ore, down 10 percent, The response from other OPEC producers to due to weak Chinese demand, while most other the supply losses has been limited, in part metals fell 3-5 percent. Silver and gold prices because of the difficulty replacing Libya’s light, continued to climb on strong investment sweet, and distillate-rich crude. On the other demand. Following the earthquake in Japan hand, demand has weakened due to the seasonal March 11th, metals prices rebounded strongly on fall in refining runs and damage to refineries in expectations that reconstruction efforts will Japan. However, refinery output is ramping up boost metal demand in the medium term. Lead to meet summer demand, and the focus will be prices have jumped 20 percent on expected on tightening distillate markets and light/sweet strong demand for lead batteries in Japan for crude supplies, as Libya’s oil production and back-up power generators for infrastructure, exports are expected to be out for some time. utilities and businesses. Major Price Indices Agriculture Prices - Sub-Indices Indices of Nominal US$ Prices (2000=100) Indices of Nominal US$ Prices (2000=100) 400 375 Metals and Minerals 350 350 Raw Materials 325 300 300 Beverages 275 250 250 Food Energy Agriculture 225 200 200 175 150 150 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Prepared in the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) by Shane Streifel, John Baffes and Betty Dow. Katherine Rollins is task assistant. 1 Major Movers March1 Iron ore prices fell 9.5 percent on weak Silver prices surged 16.5 percent on strong demand, mainly the reluctance of Chinese investment demand reflecting geopolitical steelmakers to rebuild inventory, and expected tensions, higher oil prices, and worries about higher scrap supplies from Japan. inflation. Sugar prices decreased 11.0 percent on Crude oil prices increased 11.0 percent due to improved supplies, with Thailand and India both the loss of Libya’s 1.6 mb/d production, increasing their export availability. continued unrest in the Middle East and North Rubber prices fell 13.4 percent on fears of Africa, and fear of supply disruptions in major weakening demand from Japan; the country OPEC producing countries. accounts for more than 7 percent of global Coffee robusta prices increased 8.0 percent consumption. reflecting continued supply tightness—in part Coconut oil and palmkernel oil prices (close because of dry weather in Vietnam—which has substitutes) fell 14.7 and 13.9 percent, pushed stocks to its lowest levels since 1965. respectively, following sharp declines in import Cotton prices soared 7.7 percent to another all- demand, as users switch to less expensive oils. time high (up almost 2-fold y/y) on low stocks March Percent Changes in Price (Nominal US $) and an expected drop in cotton output in Burkina Faso and India of 100,000 tons. -20 0 20 40 60 80 Sorghum prices (close substitute to corn) Silver 109.5 increased 5.1 percent on strong demand for feed Crude oil, average spot Coffee, robusta grains as more corn is diverted to ethanol Cotton, A Index 167.7 production in the U.S. due to high oil prices. Sorghum Logs (Malaysia) prices rose 5.0 percent owing Logs, Malaysia Gold to strong Asian demand and supply constraints. Beef Groundnut oil prices dropped 4.6 percent Aluminum following news of increased global production Coffee, arabica Lead for the 2010/2011 season. Potassium chloride Zinc prices fell 5.0 percent on strong production TSP growth, rising stocks and slowing demand. DAP Sawnwood Malaysia Soybean meal prices fell 5.4 percent as rainfall Natural gas, Europe boosted crop conditions in South America, LNG including Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay. Phosphate rock Coal, Australia Nickel prices decreased 5.5 percent, despite Maize 82.7 falling stocks, due to expected large supply Cocoa gains this year and beyond. Tea, avg 3 auctions Natural gas, US Rice prices declined 6.0 percent in light of Tin ample supplies in East Asia producing countries, Soybeans and expected reduced buying from Indonesia. Copper Soybean oil Urea fertilizer prices fell 8.5 percent due to Groundnut oil global oversupply and limited demand from Zinc Mar '11/Feb '11 India. Soybean meal Mar '11/Mar '10 Nickel Palm oil and soybean oil prices declined 8.7 Rice, Thai, 5% and 4.2 percent, respectively, on expectations of Urea, bulk increased palm oil production next season. Palm oil Wheat, US, HRW Wheat prices fell 9.0 percent in response to Iron ore, spot reports indicating a healthy crop for next season, Sugar, world including higher planting intentions in the U.S. Rubber RSS3 Palmkernel oil 98.7 Coconut oil 109.0 1 Percent change of average March 2011 prices compared to average February 2011 prices in nominal U.S. dollars (graph includes 12-month changes in grey). 2 COMMODITY PRICE DATA Annual averages Quarterly averages M onthly averages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Jan Feb Mar Commodity Unit 2009 2010 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 Energy Coal, Australia a/ $/mt 71.84 98.97 129.61 95.19 99.49 93.55 107.63 129.61 132.48 128.36 128.00 Crude oil, avg, spot a/ $/bbl 61.76 79.04 99.75 77.06 78.18 75.51 85.42 99.75 92.69 97.91 108.65 Crude oil, Brent a/ $/bbl 61.86 79.64 104.90 76.65 78.69 76.41 86.79 104.90 96.29 103.96 1 1 4.44 Crude oil, Dubai a/ $/bbl 61.75 78.06 100.40 75.86 77.98 74.04 84.37 100.40 92.37 100.25 108.58 Crude oil, West Texas Int. a/ $/bbl 61.65 79.43 93.95 78.67 77.85 76.08 85.09 93.95 89.41 89.53 102.92 Natural gas Index a/ 2000=100 153.5 156.1 165.6 170.3 147.5 155.1 51 1 .6 165.6 170.2 162.8 61 1 .7 Natural gas, Europe a/ $/mmbtu 8.71 8.29 9.45 8.84 7.51 8.26 8.54 9.45 9.61 9.36 9.37 Natural gas, US a/ $/mmbtu 3.95 4.39 4.18 5.15 4.32 4.28 3.80 4.18 4.49 4.07 3.97 Natural gas LNG, Japan a/ $/mmbtu 8.94 10.85 12.05 10.32 10.95 1 .22 1 10.91 12.05 1 .45 1 1 1 .70 1 1 .70 Non Energy Commodities Agriculture Beverages Cocoa b/ c/kg 288.9 313.3 334.3 329.7 321 .0 305.9 296.6 334.3 316.5 347.2 339.3 Coffee, Arabica b/ c/kg 317.1 432.0 620.0 353.7 392.0 468.5 513.9 620.0 581.5 634.7 643.9 Coffee, robusta b/ c/kg 164.4 173.6 241.5 150.8 1 .0 61 183.2 199.4 241.5 222.9 241.1 260.4 Tea, auctions (3), average b/ c/kg 272.4 288.5 290.5 279.0 276.4 295.1 303.5 290.5 302.1 288.2 281.2 Tea, Colombo auctions b/ c/kg 313.7 329.0 356.9 335.1 31 6.2 322.1 342.4 356.9 355.9 355.9 359.0 Tea, Kolkata auctions b/ c/kg 251 .5 280.5 234.0 215.8 274.0 320.6 1 31 .7 234.0 261.2 229.9 210.9 Tea, Mombasa auctions b/ c/kg 252.0 256.0 280.6 286.1 238.9 242.7 256.3 280.6 289.2 278.8 273.8 Food Fats and Oils Coconut oil b/ $/mt 725 ,1 1 24 2,073 834 955 1 59 ,1 1,546 2,073 2,038 2,256 1,925 Copra $/mt 480 750 1,379 557 634 769 1,038 1,379 1,354 1,503 1,280 Groundnut oil b/ $/mt ,1 1 84 1,404 1,723 1,359 1,352 1,301 1,604 1,723 1,788 1,730 1,650 Palm oil b/ $/mt 683 901 1,251 808 813 875 1 08 ,1 1,251 1,281 1,292 ,1 1 80 Palmkernel oil $/mt 700 ,1 1 84 2,131 922 1,034 1 61 ,1 ,61 1 9 2,131 2,1 20 2,296 1,977 Soybean meal b/ $/mt 408 378 437 369 342 378 424 437 451 442 418 Soybean oil b/ $/mt 849 1,005 1,349 917 876 984 1,242 1,349 1,374 1,365 1,307 Soybeans b/ $/mt 437 450 565 417 409 452 522 565 572 570 553 Grains Barley b/ $/mt 128.3 158.4 198.1 143.6 146.9 61 1 .9 81 1 .1 198.1 195.2 196.5 202.6 Maize b/ $/mt 165.5 185.9 282.8 162.7 157.7 81 1 .7 241.5 282.8 264.9 292.9 290.5 Rice, Thailand, 5% b/ $/mt 555.0 488.9 1 51 .2 535.3 452.4 457.0 510.8 1 51 .2 516.8 524.0 492.8 Rice, Thailand, 25% $/mt 458.1 441.5 465.4 477.0 399.1 41 8.5 471.4 465.4 467.6 473.0 455.5 Rice,Thai, A.1 $/mt 326.4 383.7 1 41 .3 400.7 333.8 376.9 423.1 1 41 .3 405.0 420.5 408.3 Rice, Vietnam 5% $/mt n.a. 428.8 477.9 433.2 366.1 41 .1 1 504.7 477.9 496.8 478.6 458.3 Sorghum $/mt 51 1 .1 165.4 255.2 156.9 142.6 153.6 208.6 255.2 246.3 253.2 266.1 Wheat, Canada $/mt 300.5 312.4 449.0 279.0 260.9 326.1 383.6 449.0 440.5 474.1 432.5 Wheat, US, HRW b/ $/mt 224.1 223.6 330.5 195.4 177.4 237.9 283.6 330.5 326.6 348.1 316.7 Wheat US SRW $/mt 186.0 229.7 320.8 193.5 186.9 253.4 284.9 320.8 320.4 338.8 303.1 Other Food Bananas EU $/mt ,1 1 45 1,002 1,251 ,01 1 4 1,029 933 1,033 1,251 1 97 ,1 ,31 1 1 1,246 Bananas US b/ $/mt 847 868 964 781 862 922 909 964 892 1,002 996 Fishmeal $/mt 1,230 1,687 1,740 1,660 ,81 1 4 1,663 ,61 1 3 1,740 1,631 1,793 1,796 Meat, beef b/ c/kg 263.6 335.1 409.5 31 4.2 342.4 330.9 353.2 409.5 409.7 404.8 41 4.0 Meat, chicken (Revised) b/ c/kg 188.8 189.2 188.2 183.9 190.2 193.6 189.3 188.2 187.4 187.5 189.8 Meat, sheep c/kg 427.6 531 .4 637.1 447.6 486.8 572.5 61 8.7 637.1 627.6 641 .4 642.4 Oranges b/ $/mt 909 1,033 823 1,009 1,084 ,1 1 63 878 823 735 885 850 Shrimp, Mexico b/ c/kg 945 1,004 1,246 827 945 n.a. 1 .7 221 1,246 1,246 1,246 1,246 Sugar EU domestic b/ c/kg 52.44 44.1 8 44.69 46.38 42.66 43.29 44.38 44.69 43.67 44.61 45.78 Sugar US domestic b/ c/kg 54.88 79.25 86.56 84.31 69.62 78.20 84.86 86.56 84.79 87.39 87.51 Sugar, world b/ c/kg 40.00 46.93 62.70 51 .82 34.93 42.98 58.01 62.70 65.28 64.97 57.85 Raw M aterials Timber Logs, Cameroon $/cum 421.5 428.6 446.1 431.4 408.0 426.3 448.5 446.1 441.3 450.8 n.a. Logs, Malaysia b/ $/cum 287.2 278.2 329.6 253.6 253.5 293.5 312.1 329.6 315.3 328.6 345.0 Plywood c/sheets 564.6 569.1 586.6 557.2 566.3 572.3 580.5 586.6 584.5 588.7 n.a. Sawnwood, Cameroon $/cum 748.9 812.7 829.7 804.1 787.1 81 .8 1 847.8 829.7 827.8 831.5 n.a. Sawnwood, Malaysia b/ $/cum 805.5 848.3 921.6 787.8 832.6 879.8 892.9 921.6 907.8 927.8 929.2 Woodpulp $/mt 614.6 866.8 883.3 780.9 875.5 912.9 897.8 883.3 879.1 885.8 885.0 Other Raw M aterials Cotton A Index b/ c/kg 138.2 228.3 456.9 178.8 199.3 205.2 330.1 456.9 394.5 470.0 506.3 Rubber, Singapore, RSS3 b/ c/kg 192.1 365.4 573.2 318.6 372.7 337.5 432.8 573.2 552.0 625.9 541.9 Rubber, Singapore, TSR20 c/kg 180.0 338.1 525.1 309.8 302.3 314.4 425.9 525.1 533.2 558.1 483.9 continued on next page a/ Included in the energy index (2000=100) b/ Included in the non-energy index (2000=1 00) c/ Steel not included in the non-energy index d/ base metals plus iron ore e/ Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc $ = US dollar ¢ = US cent bbl = barrel cum = cubic meter dmtu = Dry Metric Ton Unit kg = kilogram mmbtu = million British thermal units mt = metric ton toz = troy oz n.a. = not available n.q. = no quotation 3 COMMODITY PRICE DATA Annual averages Quarterly averages M onthly averages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Mar Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Jan Feb Mar 2009 2010 2011 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 Fertilizers DAP b/ $/mt 323.1 500.7 601.7 464.8 458.2 494.1 585.6 601.7 595.8 603.8 605.5 Phosphate rock b/ $/mt 21 1 .7 123.0 158.3 102.1 125.0 125.0 140.0 158.3 155.0 160.0 160.0 Potassium chloride b/ $/mt 630.4 331.9 374.2 334.0 316.1 334.2 343.2 374.2 367.5 375.0 380.0 TSP b/ $/mt 257.4 381.9 486.3 31 6.9 357.4 389.6 463.8 486.3 475.0 490.0 494.0 Urea, E. Europe, bulk b/ $/mt 249.6 288.6 353.4 281 .0 237.2 279.2 357.0 353.4 374.1 358.1 327.8 M etals and M inerals Aluminum b/ $/mt 1,665 2,173 2,501 2,1 63 2,096 2,090 2,343 2,501 2,440 2,508 2,556 Copper b/ $/mt 5,150 7,535 9,642 7,232 7,027 7,243 8,637 9,642 9,556 9,868 9,503 Gold $/toz 973 1,225 1,384 ,1 1 09 ,1 1 96 1,227 1,367 1,384 1,356 1,373 1,424 Iron ore, contract, fob Brazil b/ ¢/dmtu 01 1 .0 n.a. n.a. 1 .0 31 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Iron ore, spot, cfr China $/dmt 80.0 145.9 178.6 31 1 .0 159.2 137.4 155.9 178.6 179.2 187.2 169.4 Lead b/ c/kg 71 1 .9 21 4.8 260.4 222.1 195.0 203.2 239.0 260.4 260.2 258.7 262.4 Nickel b/ $/mt 14,655 21,809 26,870 19,959 22,476 ,1 21 91 23,609 26,870 25,646 28,252 26,710 Silver c/toz 1,469 2,020 3,179 1,693 1,838 1,901 2,647 3,179 2,855 3,086 3,595 Steel products index c/ 2000=100 227 230 251 21 1 241 232 234 251 241 246 265 c/ $/mt Steel cr coilsheet, Japan, Reinstated 783 81 6 867 725 838 850 850 867 850 850 900 c/ $/mt Steel hr coilsheet, Japan, Reinstated 683 71 6 767 625 738 750 750 767 750 750 800 Steel, rebar, Japan, Reinstated c/ $/mt 486 563 600 546 621 533 550 600 600 600 600 c/ Steel wire rod, Japan, Reinstated $/mt 969 71 2 684 751 767 678 653 684 663 690 700 Tin b/ c/kg 1,357 2,041 2,986 1,721 1,786 2,055 2,601 2,986 2,747 3,153 3,059 Zinc b/ c/kg 165.5 216.1 239.3 228.9 202.6 201 .3 231 .5 239.3 237.2 246.5 234.1 NEW World Bank commodity price indices for low and middle income countries( 2000 =100) Energy 21 4.3 271 .2 339.6 266.1 267.7 259.5 291 .3 339.6 319.5 333.6 365.6 Non Energy Commodities 208.8 266.5 339.7 250.4 253.7 260.1 302.0 339.7 334.6 350.7 333.9 Agriculture 197.8 231 .3 300.4 21 6.6 21 5.4 228.6 264.7 300.4 294.6 310.9 295.7 Beverages 21 9.9 253.8 305.0 242.5 246.9 259.2 266.4 305.0 289.6 312.7 31 2.6 Food 205.1 224.1 284.9 21 3.1 201 .0 222.0 260.4 284.9 284.6 292.6 277.4 Fats and Oils 21 6.2 244.4 321 .0 224.7 21 9.7 241 .1 292.1 321 .0 327.7 328.2 307.2 Grains 21 4.9 21 5.8 289.4 205.1 186.6 21 2.5 259.1 289.4 281.0 299.8 287.4 Other Food 81 1 .6 204.9 233.2 205.1 189.4 205.3 21 9.7 233.2 231.2 239.3 229.0 Raw Materials 168.7 237.5 335.8 1 21 .9 234.4 229.2 274.4 335.8 321.3 354.5 331 .6 Timber 138.9 143.5 159.1 132.7 138.6 149.4 153.3 159.1 155.6 159.8 61 1 .8 Other Raw Materials 201 .4 340.3 529.1 298.6 339.1 31 6.5 406.9 529.1 502.5 567.5 51 7.2 Fertilizers 293.0 280.0 343.5 259.0 253.3 278.5 329.3 343.5 347.8 346.8 335.9 Metals and Minerals d/ 221 .9 337.2 41 9.9 31 8.6 332.2 322.5 375.4 41 9.9 415.3 432.6 1 41 .9 Base Metals e/ 208.9 297.8 373.4 287.0 280.9 286.5 336.8 373.4 367.2 382.0 370.9 a/ Included in the energy index (2000=100) b/ Included in the non-energy index (2000=1 00) c/ Steel not included in the non-energy index d/ base metals plus iron ore e/ Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc $ = US dollar ¢ = US cent bbl = barrel cum = cubic meter dmt = dry metric ton dmtu = dry metric ton unit kg = kilogram mmbtu = million British thermal units mt = metric ton toz = troy oz n.a. = not available n.q. = no quotation 4 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2006-2011 5 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2006-2011 Cont’d 6 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2006-2011 Cont’d 7