INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION FROM ARMENIA and GEORGIA Maddalena Honorati and Esther Bartl Oct 18th, 2020 TITLE population in Armenia and Georgia has declined in the past decades Total ▪ Comments • Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Total population (in millions) total population of Georgia and Armenia has 6.00 declined continuously. 5.00 • Armenia’s population dropped from 3.5M in 4.00 1990 to 3M in 2019. 3.00 • Georgia’s population dropped from 4.8M in 2.00 1.00 1990 to 3.7M in 2019. 0.00 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 Armenia Georgia • But how many people left the country? Source: World Development Indicators 2020. Net migration from Armenia and Georgia has declined in the past decades TITLE ▪ Comments • Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, net Net migration (in 100k) migration from Georgia and Armenia has 0 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 declined continuously. -1 -2 • In 1992, 500k Armenians emigrated, compared -3 to 25k in 2017. -4 • In 1992, 600k Georgians emigrated, compared -5 to 50k in 2017. -6 -7 Armenia Georgia Source: World Development Indicators 2020. Note: net migration is the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants during the year. Economic and Political reasons have been the main factors to migrate TITLE ▪ Comments “Push factors” force people to migrate: • High unemployment rate in both countries since Unemployment rate (in %) the collapse of Soviet Union – lack of jobs with 25.00 living wages; 20.00 • In fact, in 1991 the unemployment rate in Armenia 15.00 was 1.6 percent, compared to 17 percent in 2019. In 1991 the unemployment rate in Georgia was 2.7 10.00 compared to 14.4 percent in 2019. 5.00 • Largely unresolved conflicts– i.e. Karabakh War 0.00 1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 (1988-1994) and War in Abkhazia (1992-1993, Armenia Georgia 2008); War in Ossetia (1991-1992); • Political instability with crime and corruption Source: World Development Indicators 2020. especially throughout the 1990s. Note: Total unemployment (% of total labor force), modeled ILO estimate. TITLE The total migration stock abroad has remained fairly constant ▪ Comments Migration stock abroad (in millions) • There were more than 1.8 million Georgian 2.00 (853k) and Armenian (965k) migrants lived 1.80 abroad in 2019. 1.60 1.40 • In 1990, 919k Georgian, i.e. 900k Armenian 1.20 migrants lived abroad. 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 Armenia Georgia Source: UN-DESA International Migration Statistics 2020. TITLE In 2018, the majority of migrants lived in the Europe region ▪ Comments • In 2018, 670,382 Armenian (69 %) i.e. 678,126 (80%) Armenians lived as migrants Number of migrants worldwide in Europe. 800,000 700,000 • 185,296 (19 %) of Armenians and 128,203 600,000 (15 %) of Georgians lived in Asian 500,000 countries; thereby, Azerbaijan was the 400,000 primary destination (SEE Karabakh for 300,000 Armenia). 200,000 100,000 • 106,176 (11 %) Armenians and 32,019 (4 %) 0 Georgians lived in North America. Northern America Asia Europe Armenia Georgia Source: UN-DESA International Migration Statistics 2020. Note: Africa, LAC, and Oceania dropped because less than two percent of Georgian and Armenian migrants live in those regions, respectively. TITLE Thereby, the majority of Armenians and Georgians lives in Russia ▪ Comments • Among Armenian and Georgian Migrants in the Europe region (in %) migrants in the Europe region, 80 %, 100% 1% 1% 7% 5% i.e. 67 %of Armenian, i.e. Georgian 90% 4% 16% 9% migrants lived Russia in 2018. 80% 70% 11% • 9 %, i.e. 11 % lived in other Eastern 60% European countries 50% • 16 % of Georgian migrants in Europe 40% 80% 67% 30% lived in Southern Europe, mostly in 20% Greece. 10% • 7 % of Armenian migrants in Europe 0% Armenia Georgia lived in Western Europe, mostly in Russia Rest Eastern Europe Southern Europe Western Europe Northern Europe France and Germany. Source: UN-DESA International Migration Database 2020. TITLE Russia is an attractive host country because of numerous “pull” factors ▪ Comments • Economic factors (more job opportunities, lower unemployment rate, higher salaries, better social security system in Russia than in Georgia and Armenia) • Cultural/historical factors (shared history, shared Russian language, familiarity with Russian mentality) • Social factors (family members/friends already in Russia) • Distance (cheaper and more travel options) TITLE Most Georgian and Armenian migrants are male ▪ Comments Migrants by gender (in %) • In 2018, 95 % of Armenian migrants were 100% 3.72 5.16 90% male, compared to only 50 % of Georgian 80% 38.41 migrants. 70% 49.9 • In 2010, even more men were migrants: 96 60% 50% 96.28 % of Armenian migrants vs. 61 % of Georgian 40% 94.84 migrants. 30% 61.41 50.1 20% 10% 0% ARM GEO ARM GEO 2010 2018 Female Male Source: Armenia ILCS 2010, Armenia ILCS 2018, Georgia IHSD 2010, and Georgia HIES 2018. TITLE Most Georgian and Armenian migrants are middle-aged ▪ Comments • In 2018, the majority of Georgian (57 %) and Migrants by age (in %) Armenian (77 %) migrants were aged 25-54 100% 9.25 11.39 12.5 90% years. 80% 26.77 • 10 %, i.e. 17 % of Armenian, i.e. Georgian 70% 60% migrants were aged 15-24. 50% 78.15 78.8 77.12 56.54 40% • 13 %, i.e. 27 % of Armenian, i.e. Georgian 30% migrants were aged 55-75. 20% 10% 16.7 • In 2010, the proportion of older migrants 0% 12.6 9.81 10.38 was lower (9 % for Armenian migrants; 11 % ARM GEO ARM GEO 55-74 yrs for Georgian migrants) 2010 2018 25-54 yrs 15-24 yrs Source: Armenia ILCS 2010, Armenia ILCS 2018, Georgia IHSD 2010, and Georgia HIES 2018. Most Georgian and Armenian migrants have some sort of secondary education TITLE ▪ Comments • In 2018, the majority of Armenian(60 %) and Georgian (75 %) migrants indicated that they had Migrants by education attainment (2018, in %) some sort of secondary education. 100% 10.68 • 11 % of Armenian and 19 % of Georgian migrants 90% 80% 20.76 19.28 27.1 21.67 have tertiary education. 70% 13.93 60% • 7 %, i.e. 5 % of Armenians, i.e. Georgians have 50% 75.31 primary education. 40% 60.25 53.35 66.99 30% • 0 %, i.e. 0.3 % Armenian, i.e. Georgian migrants 20% 10% indicated that they had no education. 0% 7.4 11.43 5.1 5.25 migrants non-migrants migrants non-migrants • Comparing migrants with all others reveals for both ARM GEO countries that it is mostly those with secondary no educ primary secondary vocational tertiary education who migrate abroad compared to those with primary and tertiary education. Source: Armenia ILCS 2018 and Georgia HIES 2018. Note: no specific category for vocational education in the dataset for Georgia available. Non-migrants are calculated by subtracting migrants from the whole sample. TITLE While the majority of Armenian migrants work in construction abroad ▪ Comments Employment abroad by sector • In 2010, 83 % and in 2018 80 % of Armenian 100% 4.56 2.42 5 4.06 90% 1.96 5.21 migrants worked in construction abroad. 80% 8.01 5.52 70% • Those Armenian migrants tend to be male, 60% temporary labor migrants, who work in 50% 83.05 40% 80.21 Russia. 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2018 Construction Wholesale and retail trade Manufacturing Transportation and storage Other Source: Armenia ILCS 2010, Armenia ILCS 2018. TITLE Georgian migrants tend to come from urban areas ▪ Comments • In 2018, 75 % of Georgian migrants come Regions of origin of Georgian migrants (in %, from 5 different regions. top-5 regions) • The majority of migrants come from urban Imereti, Racha- Lechkhumi, and Kvemo Svaneti areas; The 4 largest cities (> 100k 20.66 Tbilisi inhabitants) in the country are located in 24.36 those 5 regions: Tbilisi, Batumi, Kutaisi, and Kvemo Kartli Rustavi. 9.95 17.01 Adjara A.R. Samtskhe-Javakheti 12.63 15.39 Other regions Source: Georgia HIES 2018. Note: Georgia is divided into 9 regions and 2 autonomous republics (Adjara and Abkhazia). The dataset lumps together Imereti with Racha-Lechkhumi & Kverno Svaneti. No data available for Armenia. Calculated with weights. TITLE The majority of Georgian and Armenian migrants stays abroad rather short-term ▪ Comments • In 2018, 62 %, i.e. 57 % of Armenian, i.e. Duration of stay abroad, 2018 Georgian migrants stayed abroad for less 100% than a year. 90% 80% 37.6 42.9 70% • 38 % , i.e. 43 % of Armenian, i.e. Georgian 60% 50% migrants stayed abroad for more than a 40% year. 30% 62.4 57.1 20% 10% 0% Armenia Georgia Less than 1 year More than 1 year Source: Armenia ILCS 2018 and Georgia HIES 2018. TITLE Remittances ▪ Comments Remittances (in billions of current USD) 2.500 2.258 2.000 • In 2019, remittances to Armenia was USD 1,5 1.669 1.528 billions and USD 2,3 billions to Georgia. 1.500 1.184 1.000 • The total amount of remittances increased for 0.500 0.182 0.206 Georgia since 2000. In comparison, remittances 0.000 to Armenia were USD 1.7 billions in 2010. 2000 2010 2019 Armenia Georgia • In 2019, remittances constituted 13 %, i.e. 11 % Remittances (% of GDP) of Georgia’s, i.e. Armenia’s GDP. 20.0 18.0 15.0 12.9 11.2 9.5 9.7 10.0 6.7 5.0 0.0 2000 2010 2019 Armenia Georgia Source: World Development Indicators 2020. TITLE Migration has positive effects for home countries ▪ Comments o The outflow of lower-skilled labor helps reduce the labor market pressure in the home countries (potentially positive effects on the employment of stayers) o Brain circulation of lower-skilled migrants benefits labor-intensive sectors in the destination countries and the left behind households through remittances. TITLE However, migration has also some negative aspects ▪ Comments • Discrimination of Armenian and Georgian labor migrants, especially in Russia and other former Soviet countries (crowded housing, poor work conditions, etc.) • When returning to Armenia and Georgia, migrants bring back productive skills, but often cannot find employment and hence cannot make use of those skills. • Especially in rural areas of Armenia and Georgia, households are led by women in absence of male household members, which can lead to tensions in these conservative societies. TITLE References ▪ Comments • Armenia – Integrated Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2010. • Armenia – Integrated Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) 2018. • Georgia - Integrated Household Survey Databases (IHSD) 2010. • Georgia – Household Incomes and Expenditures Survey (HIES) 2018. • World Development Indicators. 2020. World Bank. • UN-DESA International Migration Statistics 2020. United Nations.