Trade Watch1 – June 2, 2021 Trade increasing in all regions despite disarray in shipping Principal findings • Global maritime supply chains continue to experience unprecedented disruptions. Capacity tensions associated with rapid, uneven rising trade demand in some regions have coincided with operational disruptions in containerized shipping, leading to unprecedented reductions in reliability and timeliness. o Shipping activity in terms of container carrying capacity has been stable since the beginning of the year, reflecting continually strong demand (Figure 1). North America is the region with the strongest positive trends (Table C1 and Figure C1). o Service reliability, which declined sharply in 2020, may have begun to stabilize now. The proportion of container ships arriving on schedule dropped from a typical 75% to 35% in January-February 2021 but rebounded to above 40% in March (Figure 2). Figure 1: Global Trade Carrying Capacity (TEUs) through May 17, 2021 Source: MarineTraffic. The red line indicates January 2020, the notional beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. 1This note has been prepared by the Global Trade and Regional Integration Unit of the World Bank. The “Trade Watch” is a series of quarterly bulletins aiming to track trade and logistics information in real time. This note and its accompanying annexes, which cover the trends presented here in substantially more detail, were prepared by a team led by Michael Ferrantino, with contributions from Jean-Francis Arvis, Cristina Constantinescu, Karly Dairabayeva, Ian Gillson, Karen Muramatsu, and Daria Ulybina, under the guidance and supervision of Caroline Freund, Global Director for Trade, Investment and Competitiveness, with editorial support from Pratyush Dubey. For further information about this note please contact Michael Ferrantino (Lead Economist; mferrantino@worldbank.org) or Antonio Nucifora (Practice Manager, Global Trade and Regional Integration Unit, anucifora@worldbank.org). A full list of Trade and Covid-19 briefs is available here. 1 Figure 2. Global shipping reliability (% of ships arriving within 8 hours of schedule) 90% 2018 2019 2020 2021 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Sea Intelligence, GLP report 116 • The rebound in merchandise trade continued in March 2021. Relative to the previous month, global exports and imports increased by about 20 percent, exceeding the level of March 2020 by approximately 25 percent, on the back of robust double-digit growth in all regions and income groups (Figure 3, Tables A1 and A2). Trade growth also picked up significantly from the levels seen two and three years ago. Figure 3. Global monthly goods exports and imports, YoY percent change, Jan 2007 - Mar 2021 40% Exports Imports 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Jun-07 Jul-09 Jul-14 Jul-19 Nov-07 Jun-12 Jun-17 Apr-13 Apr-08 Dec-09 May-10 Nov-12 Sep-13 Nov-17 Apr-18 Aug-11 Dec-14 May-15 May-20 Jan-07 Mar-11 Jan-12 Mar-16 Aug-16 Dec-19 Sep-08 Feb-09 Feb-14 Jan-17 Sep-18 Feb-19 Mar-21 Oct-10 Oct-15 Oct-20 Source: World Bank staff estimates using Global Economic Monitor, data from World Trade Organization, IMF International Financial Statistics, OECD and official data from China, Eurostat, Japan, UK, and the United States. Note: Mirror data is used when data for recent months are missing. Vertical line indicates January 2020. 2 • Global services trade continues to recover but is still well below its level pre-pandemic.2 Global services trade in 2020 was substantially lower than in 2019; on average services exports declined by 19.3 percent and imports by 20 percent on a YoY basis (Figure 4). Imports and exports have been recovering very slowly from their trough respectively at -29% and -27% YoY in May 2020, and remain below their pre-pandemic levels, reaching -12% and -11% YoY as of February 2021. Figure 4: Global aggregate monthly services exports and imports, YoY percentage change 20% Exports Imports 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Sep-09 Mar-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 May-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-09 May-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 May-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 May-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 May-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 May-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 May-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 May-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 May-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 May-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 May-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Jul-10 Jul-13 Jul-09 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Source: Estimates based on WTO data. Note: The global aggregate monthly services exports and imports data includes 31 economies that reported in December, which accounted for a total of approximately 51 percent of global services exports and 47 percent of global services imports in 2017 (UNCTAD). The redline marks January 2020, the notional beginning of the COVID- 19 pandemic. • Globally, travel was the type of service most negatively affected, followed by transport. While trade declined in most types of services over the period, in fact trade in ICT, insurance, pension, and financial services increased. Increases in ICT services can be explained by more activities being conducted over the Internet due to social distancing and remote work during the pandemic (Figure 5). 2Annual global services exports and imports data includes 98 economies that reported for 2020, which accounted for a total of approximately 91 percent of global services exports and 89 percent of global services imports in 2017 according to data from the IMF. 3 Figure 5: Global aggregate services exports and imports, YoY percent (2019-2020) Imports Exports Personal, cultural, and recreational services Other Business Services Telecommunications, Computer, and Information Services Charges for the Use of Intellectual Property n.i.e. Financial Services Insurance and pension services Travel Transport Construction Maintenance and Repair Services n.i.e. Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others Commercial Services -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% Source: Estimates based on IMF data Note: Annual global services exports and imports data includes 98 economies that reported for 2020, which accounted for a total of approximately 91 percent of global services exports and 89 percent of global services imports in 2017. Not all 98 economies have reported for all services sub-sectors. Additional findings • Disruptions in containerized shipping services persist, however they may have begun to stabilize. While shipping spot rates continue to remain high at three times their pre-pandemic levels (Figure C2), there are signs that existing operational disturbances may be smoothening, improving the reliability of global supply chains. For instance, delays due to container congestion at U.S. West Coast ports is still 25% over average, but it is down from a 50% increase earlier this year (Figure C3). • In April 2021, trade surged relative to the previous year for most early reporters, in some cases growing at triple-digit rates. This is driven largely by the historically low levels of trade in April 2020, a period which was severely affected by the spread of COVID-19 and related lockdowns around the world (Table A3). • The rebound in trade values reflects a rebound in both volumes and prices (Figure A1). As of March 2021, trade prices had risen to levels last seen in 2014. Commodity prices (excluding fuels) surged to levels higher than those seen before the Great Recession, while fuel prices finally reached pre-COVID levels. • In recent months, the transport and insurance charges associated with the U.S. imports have grown significantly faster than the corresponding customs value (Figure A2a). Moreover, the 4 transport and insurance charges as a percentage of the U.S. import customs value have been higher in 2020 and 2021 relative to 2019 and the previous years (Figure A2b). The two findings provide further evidence of the current mismatches between the surging post-COVID-19 demand for transportation services and the limited supply of containers on specific routes. • Trade grew robustly at two-digit rates in most products groups, both month-on-month (Table A4, Figure A3) and year-on-year (Table A5). Industrial supplies remained the top contributors to growth rates followed by capital goods and consumer goods. Fuel import values exceeded the levels of the previous year for the first time since the start of the crisis. • The number of commercial flights remains low compared to before the pandemic but above levels one year ago (Figure B4). For example, on May 15, 2021 there were 71,728 flights compared to 29,843 flights on May 15, 2020. Travel optimism continues to gradually improve (Figure B5). 5 Annex A. Merchandise trade Table A1: Exports and imports growth by region, Oct 2020- Mar 2021 (YoY percent change) Exports Imports Oct’20 Nov Dec Jan’21 Feb Mar Oct’20 Nov Dec Jan’21 Feb Mar East Asia & Pacific 4.8% 10.7% 13.9% 21.4% 41.4% 25.4% -1.7% 1.6% 5.2% 14.9% 16.2% 26.3% Of which China 10.9% 20.5% 18.1% 24.8% 154.9% 30.6% 6.6% 5.1% 7.4% 27.0% 19.6% 37.7% Of which Japan 2.6% -0.1% 7.2% 12.0% -0.2% 15.0% -10.6% -7.2% -6.9% -4.7% 16.9% 4.8% Europe & Central Asia -3.2% 3.5% 7.9% -0.9% 9.1% 26.8% -3.0% 6.2% 11.0% -1.9% 9.4% 27.8% Extra EU -4.3% 5.6% 11.4% -1.8% 7.1% 18.9% -8.7% 0.7% 5.9% -8.7% 7.9% 28.0% Intra EU 2.3% 8.1% 14.2% 3.6% 11.7% 32.8% 1.2% 8.5% 14.6% 4.3% 11.9% 30.3% Latin America & Caribbean -0.8% 0.8% 4.4% 0.5% 5.5% 22.5% -14.8% -3.3% 7.7% -6.9% 4.3% 32.5% Middle East & North Africa -16.5% -17.6% -13.0% -0.7% 8.8% 63.5% -14.7% 2.7% -2.3% 6.1% 2.4% 18.3% North America -6.8% -6.1% -2.0% 0.1% -3.6% 15.1% -0.3% 5.9% 6.2% 3.4% 7.2% 21.4% Of which United States -6.9% -7.2% -2.0% -0.9% -6.2% 12.7% 0.0% 6.7% 6.5% 4.3% 8.7% 22.1% South Asia -4.8% -7.3% 0.5% 4.5% 0.7% 56.9% -11.9% -9.5% 8.0% 2.4% 6.9% 52.1% Sub-Saharan Africa 7.6% 10.3% 18.9% 2.9% 19.6% 59.8% -14.8% -13.5% 0.3% -10.3% 5.0% 30.0% TOTAL -1.0% 4.1% 8.2% 7.3% 16.4% 26.0% -3.4% 3.4% 7.6% 4.2% 10.5% 27.0% Source: World Bank staff estimates using Global Economic Monitor, data from World Trade Organization, IMF International Financial Statistics, OECD and official data from China, Eurostat, Japan, UK, and the United States. Note: Mirror data is used when data for recent months are missing. Table A2: Exports and imports growth by income group, Oct 2020- Mar 2021 (YoY percent change) Exports Imports Oct’20 Nov Dec Jan’21 Feb Mar Oct’20 Nov Dec Jan’21 Feb Mar High income -3.4% 1.2% 5.7% 3.8% 7.6% 24.2% -3.2% 4.8% 7.7% 1.9% 9.6% 24.1% Upper middle income 5.8% 12.7% 14.0% 15.1% 59.5% 28.4% -1.5% 2.1% 6.7% 11.5% 14.2% 33.1% Lower middle income 0.8% 2.5% 10.0% 15.3% 1.9% 38.2% -11.0% -5.2% 8.3% 5.9% 9.9% 37.2% Source: World Bank staff estimates using Global Economic Monitor, data from World Trade Organization, IMF International Financial Statistics, OECD and official data from China, Eurostat, Japan, UK, and the United States. Note: Mirror data is used when data for recent months are missing. 6 Table A3: Exports and imports growth for selected economies that have December data, Dec 2020-Apr 2021 (YoY percent change) Exports Imports Dec’20 Jan’21 Feb Mar Apr Dec’20 Jan’21 Feb Mar Apr Brazil -0.1 3.5 6.5 33.0 50.5 18.9 -10.7 4.9 25.2 41.1 Chile 15.6 11.7 42.2 29.3 38.7 6.8 -3.0 30.2 56.1 44.9 China 18.1 24.8 154.9 30.6 32.3 7.4 27.0 19.6 37.7 43.4 India 0.5 6.2 0.8 60.6 195.6 8.3 2.0 7.0 53.7 167.1 Iceland 33.1 0.6 12.5 15.1 49.0 6.7 -6.3 14.9 14.5 43.4 Israel 14.2 -1.1 -10.5 12.6 40.5 6.8 6.4 9.1 21.6 52.2 Korea Rep. 12.4 11.4 9.3 16.4 41.2 2.2 3.6 14.2 18.4 33.7 Pakistan 19.0 8.8 -3.2 30.7 129.7 23.9 16.8 10.2 71.7 62.3 Singapore 4.5 3.1 2.5 27.8 35.0 -1.7 -3.4 -0.1 24.3 34.2 El Salvador 11.3 -2.4 4.8 30.8 138.7 20.8 9.2 10.6 49.3 88.3 Tunisia 13.7 -4.0 -7.6 54.0 111.1 0.3 -6.3 -9.3 39.1 69.0 Turkey 15.5 3.0 8.6 42.8 111.6 10.6 -3.7 9.1 26.8 68.0 Taiwan, China 11.3 35.7 10.0 26.5 38.8 0.9 29.9 5.7 27.0 26.5 Vietnam 22.7 55.8 -3.2 22.9 51.0 24.5 42.3 11.2 28.5 49.9 Total 14.3 20.1 50.3 29.9 43.1 7.4 15.5 13.0 33.7 48.8 Source: World Bank Global Economic Monitor. Note: Total includes trade-weighted averages. Table A4: China/EU/Japan/US exports and imports by detailed end use, Dec 2020- Mar 2021 (MoM percent change) Exports Imports contr. contr. (%) (%) MoM percent change (%) MoM percent change (%) Dec’20 Jan’21 Feb Mar Dec’20 Jan’21 Feb Mar Capital -- Capital goods 3.6 -15.2 -10.7 20.7 4.1 -2.3 -7.6 -11.9 24.8 3.9 Capital -- Transport equipment 49.6 -35.9 16.3 6.6 0.2 31.5 -35.6 12.9 7.0 0.1 Intermediate -- Food and beverages 5.1 -9.6 -19.2 -6.9 -0.1 0.8 4.8 -17.6 28.3 0.5 Intermediate -- Industrial supplies, nes 4.8 -1.9 -9.6 23.3 7.0 1.8 1.2 -8.3 30.2 9.8 Intermediate -- Fuels and lubricants 19.3 3.5 12.5 -4.5 -0.1 12.4 11.9 5.6 16.1 1.7 Intermediate -- Capital goods 8.4 -8.8 -9.1 21.4 2.1 2.0 -6.5 -11.2 27.0 2.0 Intermediate -- Transport equipment 4.0 -6.5 -2.0 14.6 0.8 -6.3 4.9 -6.7 20.4 1.0 Consumption -- Food and beverages -2.7 -10.6 -4.8 21.4 0.7 5.1 2.6 -15.4 24.8 1.0 Consumption -- Transport equipment -5.6 -15.9 9.6 3.8 0.0 6.3 19.1 -26.1 29.0 0.1 Consumption -- Consumer goods, nes 1.3 -3.1 -13.9 10.6 1.5 -3.6 4.7 -6.1 19.8 2.5 Not classified -- Food and beverages 1.5 -15.9 -33.7 42.6 0.0 7.9 -14.3 -19.5 22.1 0.1 Not classified -- Fuels and lubricants 25.5 -4.1 3.1 22.6 0.5 19.9 11.3 2.0 21.1 0.4 Not classified -- Transport equipment -11.3 -13.5 17.2 19.6 0.9 12.5 -26.5 -9.2 25.0 0.9 Not classified -- Goods, nes 17.1 -17.0 -6.7 19.7 0.7 0.5 -4.7 0.1 22.6 0.6 TOTAL 5.2 -8.4 -7.7 18.3 2.0 -1.4 -7.5 24.6 Source: World Bank staff estimates using official data from Eurostat, Japan, and the United States. Note: Trade flows for EU includes extra-EU trade due to data availability. End use categories are based on UN Broad Economic Categories (BEC, Rev 4). Not classified transport equipment includes passenger motor vehicles. Last columns in exports and imports indicate contributions to growth in the latest available month. 7 Table A5: China/EU/Japan/US exports and imports by product group, Dec 2020- Mar 2021 (YoY percent change) Exports Imports contr. contr. (%) (%) YoY percent change (%) YoY percent change (%) Dec’20 Jan’21 Feb Mar Dec’20 Jan’21 Feb Mar Capital -- Capital goods 15.7 20.3 48.3 27.2 5.3 19.0 20.7 29.1 31.9 4.4 Capital -- Transport equipment -0.2 -7.6 13.1 22.0 0.5 4.9 10.2 26.3 18.0 0.2 Intermediate -- Food and beverages 52.6 45.6 33.5 10.5 0.1 12.6 22.2 12.8 37.6 0.7 Intermediate -- Industrial supplies, nes 14.5 15.7 33.1 22.0 6.8 11.3 17.4 19.2 33.9 10.5 Intermediate -- Fuels and lubricants -9.6 -2.1 17.6 19.6 0.4 -31.2 -26.2 -5.6 22.8 2.9 Intermediate -- Capital goods 11.8 13.0 31.4 19.1 1.9 15.3 17.9 16.7 21.2 1.5 Intermediate -- Transport equipment 4.2 0.6 14.7 15.8 0.9 -3.0 -3.7 -1.8 13.8 0.8 Consumption -- Food and beverages 5.4 2.0 12.1 11.1 0.4 7.1 3.7 4.3 8.7 0.4 Consumption -- Transport equipment 27.7 28.1 44.8 70.3 0.3 45.6 40.3 -8.0 33.8 0.1 Consumption -- Consumer goods, nes 13.3 10.0 68.6 28.1 3.6 10.6 7.5 13.1 35.9 4.6 Not classified -- Food and beverages 3.4 3.0 27.8 6.1 0.0 -6.8 -11.7 8.7 14.7 0.0 Not classified -- Fuels and lubricants -33.3 -29.5 -21.9 -3.7 -0.1 -33.8 -27.0 -4.6 32.6 0.6 Not classified -- Transport equipment 16.2 4.7 7.5 38.2 1.5 17.5 8.3 -3.7 4.9 0.2 Not classified -- Goods, nes -8.0 -2.7 -11.7 0.5 0.0 -6.1 -2.0 12.8 21.3 0.6 TOTAL 10.3 10.8 30.7 21.6 5.2 7.1 12.9 27.5 Source: World Bank staff estimates using official data from Eurostat, Japan, and the United States. Note: Trade flows for EU includes extra-EU trade and exclude reporting by Poland due to data availability. Not classified transport equipment includes passenger motor vehicles. Last columns in exports and imports indicate contributions to growth in the latest available month. Table A6: Year-on-year changes in merchandise exports and imports by economy, Oct 2020- Mar 2021 Exports (%) Imports (%) Oct’20 Nov Dec Jan’21 Feb Mar Oct’20 Nov Dec Jan’21 Feb Mar Albania 5.2 17.4 14.0 11.6 8.6 92.9 5.9 11.7 19.6 17.2 10.6 57.5 Argentina -20.6 -23.6 -34.1 7.3 9.1 30.5 -2.8 20.7 24.7 8.7 16.4 32.2 Australia 0.3 0.8 12.6 25.8 33.8 26.4 -5.1 16.8 9.3 5.1 31.0 42.6 Austria -5.7 8.9 10.6 0.8 13.8 19.5 -0.6 7.6 10.9 -0.7 14.7 22.4 Azerbaijan -44.1 -41.8 -39.2 -35.7 1.6 1.4 -17.4 -17.5 -16.9 -32.2 -30.8 5.3 Bangladesh -7.6 -3.0 -8.9 -7.0 4.4 43.0 -25.0 4.1 -0.1 -3.0 6.3 21.8 Belarus 0.9 0.1 3.5 19.5 22.5 31.9 -12.0 -12.9 -15.0 10.8 14.5 22.1 Belgium 0.6 4.5 13.6 0.9 4.3 26.5 -7.2 5.4 12.2 -3.8 5.5 24.3 Bolivia -12.5 6.8 2.8 -11.5 -14.2 14.4 -7.3 -6.8 -17.3 -27.7 5.9 18.6 Bosnia and Herzegovina 7.2 5.0 25.8 12.9 23.4 46.8 -0.1 -1.2 7.1 3.4 3.3 29.0 Brazil -9.4 -1.5 -0.1 3.5 6.5 33.0 -22.0 -0.1 18.9 -10.7 4.9 25.2 Bulgaria -4.0 -2.0 16.1 3.0 14.2 36.7 -2.7 6.7 2.7 2.8 14.1 42.2 Canada -6.3 -1.6 -1.9 3.6 6.5 24.8 -2.4 1.7 4.7 -1.8 -0.4 17.6 Chile 25.3 26.0 15.6 11.7 42.2 29.3 -12.7 -11.8 6.8 -3.0 30.2 56.1 China 10.9 20.5 18.1 24.8 154.9 30.6 6.6 5.1 7.4 27.0 19.6 37.7 Colombia -20.5 -14.3 -9.0 -23.8 -0.1 36.4 -15.0 -12.7 0.7 -12.5 -3.0 35.8 Costa Rica 6.0 7.9 19.4 13.8 6.1 10.3 -10.6 -11.2 6.1 -3.7 -2.5 13.6 Croatia 13.1 14.7 21.6 5.8 8.3 41.0 1.7 1.8 23.3 -3.3 8.0 34.6 Cyprus 20.5 -33.7 -17.1 -28.5 -10.7 -22.6 28.4 6.0 8.1 -5.0 11.8 3.1 Czech Republic 6.7 14.5 26.3 4.7 13.7 39.9 -0.1 8.6 19.4 0.6 13.4 34.8 8 Denmark -4.4 -2.2 10.9 1.0 11.2 24.8 -0.1 10.7 18.3 4.6 22.6 32.7 Dominican Republic 0.8 -10.2 -1.2 -12.1 -5.6 30.1 -8.5 -13.5 7.4 8.0 0.8 30.4 Ecuador 3.3 3.6 -9.8 -5.6 3.4 16.0 Egypt, Arab Rep -13.1 -11.2 -0.1 0.6 0.0 46.2 -22.8 -7.4 -8.1 6.4 29.9 39.2 El Salvador 3.2 -3.8 11.3 -2.4 4.8 30.8 -8.0 -2.3 20.8 9.2 10.6 49.3 Estonia 17.4 17.1 36.7 13.8 28.4 28.1 1.2 14.5 20.4 23.0 21.9 28.6 Finland -5.2 4.0 17.8 -1.6 19.6 20.9 -4.0 6.6 5.2 -0.5 9.5 19.2 France -6.9 0.0 4.3 0.8 1.4 23.2 -5.3 -0.4 6.9 -0.6 5.1 34.4 Germany -0.1 6.1 12.9 1.0 9.9 25.4 0.3 7.8 13.2 -0.3 12.0 24.5 Greece -0.7 3.5 13.8 -3.3 21.2 44.8 -11.0 -1.3 8.5 -7.6 3.3 41.6 Guatemala 6.3 2.2 31.1 7.5 5.6 26.2 -10.6 -4.1 15.3 -1.9 14.8 46.4 Honduras 3.5 -2.4 -14.7 -12.9 22.4 68.4 -10.6 -4.2 3.4 -5.2 -0.4 28.1 Hong Kong, SAR, China 0.1 6.7 12.4 44.4 30.8 26.4 1.8 6.2 14.9 38.1 17.9 21.7 Hungary 6.2 16.4 22.3 5.5 14.1 29.7 0.9 10.9 17.4 -0.7 19.2 24.0 Iceland -15.5 -12.2 33.1 0.6 12.5 15.1 -9.6 -4.9 6.7 -6.3 14.9 14.5 India -4.9 -8.5 0.5 6.2 0.8 60.6 -10.5 -12.3 8.3 2.0 7.0 53.7 Indonesia -3.5 9.4 14.6 12.2 8.5 30.5 -26.9 -17.4 -0.5 -6.6 14.9 25.7 Ireland -11.2 20.3 12.7 -3.0 20.4 -11.6 -3.7 23.5 15.1 -7.0 -7.2 37.4 Israel 19.0 -3.0 14.2 -1.1 -10.5 12.6 -6.7 5.1 6.8 6.4 9.1 21.6 Italy -2.4 8.3 13.1 0.3 6.1 37.8 -2.2 3.7 7.7 -3.0 9.2 45.3 Jamaica -2.8 -1.8 -17.1 -34.1 -7.4 47.6 -21.2 -24.2 -7.9 -27.3 -21.4 -9.0 Japan 2.6 -0.1 7.2 12.0 -0.2 15.0 -10.6 -7.2 -6.9 -4.7 16.9 4.8 Jordan -9.1 1.5 2.5 -9.4 -8.4 51.4 -11.9 0.1 1.8 1.2 -6.3 25.9 Kazakhstan -24.7 -11.3 -25.8 -25.2 -19.8 1.6 -5.5 3.6 5.8 0.0 18.6 61.2 Kenya -0.8 -8.2 23.5 -5.9 1.6 47.2 -13.0 -18.2 -4.5 -4.8 9.8 14.9 Korea, Rep -3.9 3.9 12.4 11.4 9.3 16.4 -5.6 -1.7 2.2 3.6 14.2 18.4 Latvia 14.3 15.5 21.7 7.9 19.0 29.9 9.5 11.5 10.7 4.5 13.0 20.3 Lebanon 20.1 -8.4 -6.5 -21.1 -33.3 21.1 -8.8 -21.5 6.3 -29.2 -11.5 16.4 Lithuania 5.2 6.4 25.0 11.5 16.3 16.7 1.3 9.3 7.6 1.8 10.0 30.7 Luxembourg -2.1 10.0 17.2 3.0 9.5 30.6 -0.4 -1.1 1.2 1.2 9.4 29.0 Malaysia 1.1 5.7 13.3 7.7 21.0 36.9 -5.1 -8.0 3.9 2.4 16.0 24.6 Malta 8.8 31.9 -16.6 19.3 -3.3 8.1 -37.4 -13.5 0.4 -34.0 -10.1 8.3 Mauritius -1.6 -3.8 -10.9 -26.1 -17.2 -0.7 -23.8 -18.1 -10.0 -30.3 -22.5 -19.2 Mexico 2.9 2.3 11.5 -2.6 -1.1 12.2 -13.8 -3.9 3.7 -5.9 -0.6 31.4 Moldova, Rep -7.0 -1.7 0.0 -9.5 -7.5 25.2 -6.0 3.7 5.1 5.8 7.6 20.9 Mongolia 44.0 64.9 27.8 39.4 122.9 151.2 9.3 -13.4 -25.1 -3.1 67.5 46.1 Morocco 8.3 15.0 9.0 2.3 8.6 67.1 -16.5 -2.2 15.5 -9.3 10.3 32.6 Netherlands -2.3 5.7 11.4 2.2 11.6 27.0 -6.4 2.4 10.4 0.3 14.6 29.9 New Zealand 0.4 6.7 5.3 -2.1 4.4 15.1 -8.5 -12.3 11.5 4.0 12.4 30.9 Norway -9.3 -16.7 -7.8 7.8 23.0 75.3 0.0 13.3 7.5 -4.5 11.3 26.9 Oman -24.4 -17.1 -12.1 88.3 89.2 113.0 -21.5 17.3 -6.4 -6.3 -26.0 -27.1 Pakistan 4.1 8.2 19.0 8.8 -3.2 30.7 -3.8 9.5 23.9 16.8 10.2 71.7 Paraguay -4.8 -2.9 7.2 -14.7 -19.0 40.6 -23.2 -18.7 -8.6 -23.4 -0.2 26.2 Peru 11.8 8.8 3.7 14.1 17.9 52.9 -12.9 1.8 9.2 -9.4 15.9 53.1 Philippines -0.9 4.6 1.8 -4.8 -1.5 31.6 -15.9 -13.5 -4.7 -12.1 8.9 16.6 Poland 10.8 18.6 19.8 8.9 16.5 32.2 2.9 11.7 16.6 4.3 16.7 29.1 Portugal 4.2 6.6 1.6 -1.3 13.8 38.5 -5.6 -5.5 3.4 -8.4 -0.6 20.7 Romania 5.5 7.7 14.8 3.8 7.6 28.9 3.5 8.9 16.6 3.2 17.9 30.1 Russian Federation -23.4 -16.7 -10.5 -12.3 2.0 19.0 -8.2 -1.9 3.0 2.1 13.3 25.0 Saudi Arabia -27.2 -27.3 -23.9 -13.4 3.0 73.2 -13.6 10.5 -10.9 20.7 -6.2 7.7 Singapore -5.1 -4.4 4.5 3.1 2.5 27.8 -8.9 -8.5 -1.7 -3.4 -0.1 24.3 Slovakia 9.8 10.5 22.0 7.8 19.2 48.9 1.9 9.0 19.0 2.7 12.8 29.9 Slovenia 10.0 9.2 15.1 4.3 12.3 28.0 -0.1 19.6 9.2 -1.3 9.5 30.4 South Africa 8.3 11.8 19.3 4.3 22.0 62.2 -14.6 -12.3 2.3 -10.3 5.7 36.7 Spain -0.7 5.3 11.8 -2.7 7.9 36.7 -7.9 -1.0 5.8 -7.2 3.2 27.7 Sri Lanka -12.6 -19.9 -3.5 -6.8 -3.7 66.8 -24.9 -20.5 -14.4 -8.3 -2.5 59.8 Sweden 4.0 8.9 15.7 -0.4 12.3 26.3 -2.2 9.4 11.4 4.5 18.9 28.1 Switzerland -5.0 13.3 10.0 2.2 20.7 27.0 -0.7 9.7 14.0 -3.8 13.7 11.5 Taiwan, China 10.9 13.0 11.3 35.7 10.0 26.5 -1.1 10.0 0.9 29.9 5.7 27.0 Thailand -6.7 -3.6 4.7 0.3 -2.6 8.5 -14.8 1.2 4.3 -4.3 25.7 14.0 Tunisia 5.3 2.8 13.7 -4.0 -7.6 54.0 -14.8 -5.5 0.3 -6.3 -9.3 39.1 9 Turkey 5.1 -1.0 15.5 3.0 8.6 42.8 7.2 12.0 10.6 -3.7 9.1 26.8 Ukraine 1.4 9.2 18.6 -5.5 14.9 26.5 -14.5 1.7 7.7 2.6 5.4 26.6 United Kingdom -17.8 -17.2 -20.7 -22.8 -3.5 18.8 -5.8 14.3 16.0 -11.1 -2.3 22.1 United States -6.9 -7.2 -2.0 -0.9 -6.2 12.7 0.0 6.7 6.5 4.3 8.7 22.1 Uruguay -0.8 -2.7 -0.7 17.8 22.0 17.0 -17.2 3.8 13.4 -6.6 13.9 25.5 Vietnam 12.2 10.7 22.7 55.8 -3.2 22.9 9.2 15.7 24.5 42.3 11.2 28.5 Source: World Bank staff estimates using Global Economic Monitor, data from World Trade Organization, IMF International Financial Statistics, OECD and official data from China, Eurostat, Japan, UK, and the United States. Note: Data in italics are missing from Global Monitor in recent months, and estimated using mirrored data based on US, China, Japan and EU. These data are subject to revisions, which may in some cases be substantial. Figure A1: Global trade prices and volume, Mar 2005-Mar 2021 160 300 Trade price Index (Mar 2005=100) 150 250 Index (Mar 2005=100) 140 200 130 120 150 110 100 100 50 90 0 80 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-19 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-20 Mar-21 Fuels Commodities Trade volume (cst. U.S. dollars) Trade prices Source: CPB World Trade Monitor (May 2021) 10 Figure A2: The dynamic of transport costs associated with the custom value of the U.S. imports a. The customs value of U.S. imports vs. b. Freight/insurance charges as a the associated freight/insurance charges percentage of the customs value of U.S. imports 60 40 3.4 percent change 20 3.2 percent - 3.0 (20) 2.8 (40) (60) 2.6 Jan Aug Feb Mar Apr May Sep Nov Jun Jul Dec Oct Jul-10 Apr-07 May-08 Jun-09 Nov-14 Apr-20 Sep-12 Mar-06 Aug-11 Dec-15 Feb-18 Mar-19 Jan-17 Oct-13 2016 2017 2018 customs value (mil. USD) 2019 2020 2021 freight/insurance (mil. USD) Source: World Bank staff estimates using data from the US Census. Figure A3: China/EU/Japan/US exports and imports by end use, Jan 2020 – Mar 2021 (contributions to MoM percent change) Exports - contributions to MoM percent Imports - contributions to MoM percent change change 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% percentage points percentage points 10% 10% 0% 0% -10% -20% -10% -30% -20% Aug Jan'20 Feb Mar May Sep Jan'21 Feb Mar Jun Jul Nov Dec April Oct Aug Jan'20 May Jan'21 Feb Mar Sep Feb Mar Nov April Jun Jul Dec Oct Not classified Passenger motor vehicles Not classified Passenger motor vehicles Fuels and lubricants Consumption Fuels and lubricants Consumption Intermediate Capital Intermediate Capital Source: World Bank staff estimates using official data from Eurostat, Japan, and the United States. Note: Trade flows for EU only include extra-EU trade due to data availability. End use categories are based on UN Broad Economic Categories (Rev 4). 11 Annex B. Services trade Table B1: Services exports and imports (YoY percentage change) Exports Imports Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Australia -33.0% -32.6% -30.5% -26.0% -43.7% -51.8% -51.4% -34.8% Belgium -6.4% -6.6% -8.4% -1.2% -1.3% 4.7% -2.0% -6.6% Brazil -19.4% -5.3% -19.3% -5.8% -17.5% -31.6% -36.2% -21.9% Bulgaria -6.3% -5.6% -21.6% -26.5% -14.0% -14.4% -22.4% -25.6% Canada -7.6% -11.8% -12.7% -13.9% -24.2% -24.9% -30.9% -29.0% China -1.3% 14.8% 42.8% 20.0% -20.2% -18.3% -15.7% -8.0% Czech Republic -11.7% -11.6% -21.3% -19.7% -13.8% -11.9% -6.9% 1.1% Denmark 5.9% 12.9% -5.9% -0.4% -9.6% 3.1% -5.6% -9.0% Estonia -10.2% -3.6% -10.9% -7.1% 57.4% 227.1% -0.9% -13.3% Finland -4.7% -10.0% -20.8% -11.4% -17.4% -10.0% -13.3% -14.6% France -13.7% 4.1% -4.9% 4.2% -18.6% -0.1% -6.3% -1.1% Germany -6.4% -7.3% -8.7% -3.0% -13.2% -9.6% -16.2% -13.7% Greece -23.6% -26.9% -20.4% -5.7% -24.9% -19.9% -19.4% 1.7% Hungary -21.3% -20.8% -34.9% -31.3% -2.3% -3.9% -16.1% -13.0% India -5.1% -6.4% -10.1% -1.0% -11.8% -8.4% -15.9% -4.1% Italy -18.7% -13.4% -19.4% -12.4% -21.9% -18.0% -24.7% -14.9% Japan -20.5% -21.4% -30.1% 0.1% -3.0% -0.8% -12.7% -10.0% Korea, Republic of -6.5% 4.2% 1.3% 7.9% -14.0% -12.5% -19.8% -10.5% Latvia -14.0% -11.2% -3.3% -7.6% -6.6% -3.0% 0.0% -4.3% Lithuania -1.8% -3.6% -14.7% 0.2% -13.6% -5.2% -16.8% 8.5% Luxembourg 6.8% 9.9% 12.4% 17.1% 8.8% 11.8% 16.8% 16.3% Malta -6.1% -0.9% -11.6% -7.7% 4.4% 10.3% -7.8% -3.9% Morocco -40.5% -41.7% -56.3% 63.6% -26.3% -29.7% -33.5% 1.9% Mongolia -3.1% 5.2% -32.7% -21.1% -16.9% -17.6% -24.7% -34.1% Netherlands -5.4% -12.0% 18.2% -3.5% -1.4% -4.3% 7.8% -4.1% Pakistan 22.3% 18.5% -5.7% 3.0% -19.2% 0.3% -8.8% -23.6% Poland -0.6% 4.2% 1.5% 2.3% 3.7% 7.6% -6.9% -0.9% Portugal -24.5% -20.0% -38.7% -40.0% -17.0% 1.4% -26.5% -23.4% Romania -10.1% 1.3% 15.5% 2.9% -12.9% -8.3% -2.5% -0.9% Russia -24.4% -11.8% -23.4% -19.6% -35.0% -26.9% -38.4% -33.2% Serbia 10.0% 24.9% -4.0% 3.1% -1.8% 28.4% -21.4% -14.6% Slovak Republic -16.2% -15.6% -9.8% -8.0% -15.0% -14.5% -4.6% -2.9% Slovenia -17.1% -3.3% -20.9% -13.4% -4.6% 4.5% -17.6% -6.9% Sweden 7.4% 8.2% -8.1% 4.5% 3.3% 4.5% 0.4% 11.6% Tanzania -34.4% -37.7% -27.8% -29.6% -39.2% -33.7% -19.0% -29.5% Turkey -33.7% -27.6% -39.3% -36.3% -17.1% -3.3% -21.0% -16.2% Uganda -36.4% -39.3% -36.0% -35.1% 35.4% 80.2% 14.3% -13.8% Ukraine -9.9% -1.2% -11.2% -9.6% -34.1% -24.6% -39.6% -30.9% 12 United Kingdom -19.5% -20.2% -13.1% -5.6% -37.1% -37.8% -22.4% -18.1% United States of -21.2% -21.1% -20.3% -19.6% -23.8% -22.2% -19.3% -17.4% America Source: Estimates based on WTO data Figure B1: Services exports and imports by region3, YoY percent (2019-2020) East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia 20% 20% 0% 0% -20% -20% -40% -40% -60% -60% -80% -80% Exports Imports Exports Imports 3East Asia and Pacific include Australia, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, Fiji, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Rep. of, Malaysia, Mongolia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Thailand, Timor-Leste, and Toga |Europe and Central Asia include Albania, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Rep., Denmark, Estonia, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovak Rep., Slovenia,. Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Uzbekistan | Latin America and the Caribbean include Argentina, Aruba, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Rep., Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Uruguay | Middle East and North Africa include Israel, Malta, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia | North America include Canada and United States. | South Asia include Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. | Sub-Saharan African include Angola, Cabo Verde, Eswatini, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Seychelles, South Africa, and Zambia. 13 Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% -20% -20% -40% -40% -60% -60% -80% -80% Exports Imports Exports Imports North America South Asia 40% 200% 20% 150% 0% 100% -20% 50% -40% 0% -60% -50% -80% -100% Exports Imports Exports Imports Sub-Saharan Africa 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Exports Imports Source: Estimates based on IMF data. Note: Services exports and imports data includes 98 economies that reported for 2020, which accounted for a total of approximately 91 percent of global services exports and 89 percent of global services imports in 2017. Not all 98 economies have reported for all services sub-sectors. 14 Figure B2: Services exports and imports by country, YoY percent (2019-2020) Source: Estimates based on IMF data Note: Data includes 98 economies that reported for 2020, which accounted for a total of approximately 91 percent of global services exports and 89 percent of global services imports in 2017. Figure B3: China, Germany, Japan, and the United States (aggregate) monthly services trade (YoY percentage change) Exports YoY Percentage Change 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Commercial services Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others Maintenance and Repair Services n.i.e. Construction Transport Travel Insurance and pension services Financial Services Charges for the Use of Intellectual Property n.i.e. Telecommunications, Computer, and Information Services Other Business Services Personal, cultural, and recreational services 15 Imports YoY Percentage Change 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Commercial services Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others Maintenance and Repair Services n.i.e. Construction Transport Travel Insurance and pension services Financial Services Charges for the Use of Intellectual Property n.i.e. Telecommunications, Computer, and Information Services Other Business Services Personal, cultural, and recreational services Source: Estimates based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Japan’s Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), Deutsche Bundesbank, and Federal Reserve Figure B4: Number of Commercial Flights in 2019-2021 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - 2020-12-16 2020-01-01 2020-01-11 2020-01-21 2020-01-31 2020-02-10 2020-02-20 2020-03-01 2020-03-11 2020-03-21 2020-03-31 2020-04-10 2020-04-20 2020-04-30 2020-05-10 2020-05-20 2020-05-30 2020-06-09 2020-06-19 2020-06-29 2020-07-09 2020-07-19 2020-07-29 2020-08-08 2020-08-18 2020-08-28 2020-09-07 2020-09-17 2020-09-27 2020-10-07 2020-10-17 2020-10-27 2020-11-06 2020-11-16 2020-11-26 2020-12-06 2020-12-26 2019 2020 2021 16 Source: Flightradar24. Note: Commercial flights include commercial passenger flights, cargo flights, charter flights, some business jet flights. Figure B5: Travel sentiment 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Source: TCI Research as reported by UNWTO Note: Data are net scores measuring the balance of sentiment polarity in web social conversations (% of positive comments - % of negative comments). Topics include travel and tourism. 17 Annex C. Logistics AIS container shipping data and trade capacity indicator. Ship tracking data for Automated Identification System (AIS) reveals real time information on trade in motion. The analysis has been conducted using a calling event database prepared for the World Bank by MarineTraffic, covering over 7,000 ships calling at over 1,000 ports worldwide. The focus is on container shipping, as opposed to commodity freight in bulk. Container shipping carries manufactured goods and is representative of GVCs. The main indicator is instant (weekly) capacity calling countries or regions, measured in in capacity units of Twenty Foot Equivalent (TEU) boxes.4 Table C1: Trends in container capacities: four/eight weeks averages Trend 2021 Trend 2020 Jan Jan Regions 2021/202 4 weeks 8 4 weeks 8 0 weeks weeks World 7% 0% 0% -2% -1% Atlantic Europe 5 -3% -8% 1% -1% -5% North Sea 20% 2% -1% 0% -13% British Isles 6% 12% -7% 4% -11% Baltic 4% -2% 2% 1% -11% Scandinavia -3% 6% 5% 6% 7% West Med Europe -5% 3% 7% 2% 1% Black Sea -11% 7% -11% -5% -6% East Med 5% -2% -3% 1% 5% China; Hong Kong, SAR China; Taiwan, 2% -1% 10% -9% -3% China Japan Korea, Rep of 8% 3% -1% -7% -9% South East Asia 16% 8% 2% -8% -3% Australia NZ 10% -4% -4% 6% 14% Oceania -25% 10% -3% 13% 5% North America East Coast 16% -4% -10% 9% -1% North America West Coast 43% 0% -5% 0% 12% Caribbean Central America 20% -2% 2% 2% 3% South America West Coast -17% -11% -8% 13% 9% South America East Coast -1% -3% -2% 19% 11% North Africa 14% -4% -7% -11% 4% West Africa 14% 4% -5% 10% 1% S & E Africa/Indian Ocean -2% -9% -5% 4% 2% Red Sea -2% -13% -7% 8% 11% Persian Gulf -16% -6% -9% 12% 13% South Asia 4% -4% -8% 1% 2% 4 This definition allows for consistent aggregation across regions. 5 Atlantic ports of France, Spain, Portugal 18 Figure C1: Trends in container ship capacity by regions (100 = January 1, 2020) 145% 135% 125% 115% 105% 95% 85% 75% Sep-19 Sep-20 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Nov-19 Nov-20 Mar-19 May-19 Mar-20 May-20 Mar-21 May-21 China South Asia North America West Coast North Asia North Sea S& E Africa/Indian Ocean South America East Coast South East Asia World Figure C2: Composite Shanghai Freight Index Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange. This index is a weighted average of daily spot rates from China to worldwide destinations according to their importance. it is not representative of actual cost of freight, rather of the willingness to pay of the last- minute shipper. Most regular shippers have entered long-term contracts with shipping lines. 19 Figure C3: Increase of transpacific lead time due to ships waiting at West Coast Port (days) Source: World Bank estimates from AIS MarineTraffic data 20