Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Armenia's Integrated Living Conditions Survey (P159054) Strengthening Armenia's Integrated Living Conditions Survey (P159054) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Armenia | Poverty and Equity Global Practice | Recipient Executed Activities | Investment Project Financing | FY 2017 | Seq No: 4 | ARCHIVED on 21-Jan-2019 | ISR34969 | Implementing Agencies: Republic of Armenia, Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, Foreign Financing Projects Management Center (FFPMC) Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:08-Nov-2016 Effectiveness Date:28-Dec-2016 Original Closing Date:30-Nov-2018 Revised Closing Date:30-Nov-2018 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The development objective of this activity is to strengthen welfare monitoring in Armenia via improvements to the quality ofhousehold and individual level survey data (ILCS) collected by the National Statistical Service (NSSRA). Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Name Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO  Satisfactory  Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP)  Satisfactory  Satisfactory Implementation Status and Key Decisions The Grant financed an expansion of the sample size for the national household survey (ILCS) in the year 2017. The project was designed to increase the precision of (poverty) estimates on the national and sub-national level, mainly through a larger sample size which can contribute to smaller confidence intervals. During the preparation and the implementation of the ILCS 2017, the World Bank provided the SCRA with technical assistance to further enhance the quality of the national household survey. The ILCS 2017 has been implemented by 72 interviewers, among them 65 women, 12 editors and 11 data entry clerks. Altogether 7776 questionnaires and diaries have been filled (actual sample size has been adjusted 1/21/2019 Page 1 of 5 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Armenia's Integrated Living Conditions Survey (P159054) from 7780 to 7776 to account for power calculations and optimal allocation of households). Data collection for the ILCS 2017 was completed in January 2018, and the analysis of micro data shows that the project development objective (PDO) has been achieved, as precision of poverty estimates on the national and sub-national level has increased compared to data collected in 2014. Risks Overall Risk Rating Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Overall  --  Low  Low Comments Not applicable. Results Project Development Objective Indicators PHINDPDOTBL Higher precision (or accuracy) of poverty estimates for Armenia achieved; both, at the national and regional level. (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Higher precision (or accuracy) of poverty estimates – as measured by the 95 Compared to 2014, the percent survey results from 2017 confidence show (a) HIGHER interval: (1) at 95 percent confidence precision for national the national interval of poverty estimate estimates, and (b) level, smaller Value -- at the national and regional HIGHER precision for 7 95 percent level in 2014. out of 10 marzes for confidence regional estimates. The interval; (2) at PDO has been the regional achieved. level, smaller 95 percent confidence intervals for half of the regions in Armenia (10 marzes plus Yerevan). 1/21/2019 Page 2 of 5 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Armenia's Integrated Living Conditions Survey (P159054) Date 26-Oct-2016 -- 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Overall Comments The project development objective indicator refers to the confidence intervals for poverty estimates, a measure for the precision (or accuracy) of estimates from a sample. At the national level the 95 percent confidence interval decreased from 4.1 percentage points to 2.6 percentage points, which implies a reduction of the width of the confidence interval of 36 percent between 2014 and 2017. The expansion of the sample size has contributed to a reduction of confidence of more than 40 percent for the capital city Yerevan and two regions (Ararat and Kotayk), and of more than 20 percent for another four regions (Aragatsotn, Armavir, Shirak and Vayots Dzor). Note that in comparison to 2016, precision of all poverty estimates has increased. Even though ceteris paribus (all other things equal), a larger sample size is expected to decrease the confidence intervals and thereby contributes to higher precision, there are additional factors which influence confidence intervals. Among other things, confidence intervals can increase or decrease in response to changes in the questionnaire design, the survey preparation and the survey implementation (mainly through the non- sampling error). As many of these factors are beyond the control of the project team (and often require significant technical assistance to address), it is recommended for future projects to use better indicators, which are within the control of the intervention and less susceptible to external factors so that direct attribution can be measured. Intermediate Results Indicators PHINDIRITBL Project Coordinator identified and recruited. (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Project Value none Completed. Completed. Coordinator recruited. Date 26-Oct-2016 01-Mar-2017 01-Mar-2017 30-Jan-2017 PHINDIRITBL 72 interviewers for the household survey recruited, of which at least half are women. (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 72 interviewers recruited, Value none Completed. Completed. among them 65 women. Date 26-Oct-2016 01-Mar-2017 01-Mar-2017 31-Mar-2017 1/21/2019 Page 3 of 5 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Armenia's Integrated Living Conditions Survey (P159054) PHINDIRITBL Individual and household data for the ILCS collected using an expanded sample size. (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 5,184.00 7,776.00 7,776.00 7,780.00 Date 26-Oct-2016 15-Jun-2017 15-Jun-2017 31-Jan-2018 Overall Comments One of the intermediate results indicators refers to the sample size for the expanded sample. The end target (7780) was established based on preliminary power calculation during project preparation to ensure the desired statistical representativeness on the national and regional level. During the preparation of the survey, the household survey unit of the SCRA, in consultations with the World Bank Team, adjusted the sample size to 7776 based on the optimal allocation of households across primary sampling units. The difference is minimal and does not compromise the quality of the data. For future projects it is recommended not to include the expected sample size as target, because the power calculation and optimal allocation of households across primary sampling units is often completed only during the preparation of the survey, and therefore not available when the project is designed. Alternative end targets would be “full sample size as determined based on power calculations and optimal allocation has been reached”. Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P159054 TF-A3852 Closed USD 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.19 0.01 94% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P159054 TF-A3852 Closed 08-Nov-2016 28-Dec-2016 28-Dec-2016 30-Nov-2018 30-Nov-2018 Cumulative Disbursements 1/21/2019 Page 4 of 5 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Strengthening Armenia's Integrated Living Conditions Survey (P159054) Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 1/21/2019 Page 5 of 5 Public Disclosure Copy