search >4"~ Pro ra Pagi,;'"4 rt 4Y'---4.'>~.::4j =-- é4 ,44 em'-4 er . ¾% ;4asi4~~ 44< 44444Æ - 4~..44..- -õü e a arsrce d--rbtin n my be use by re pients ¼,p> 4 ~ w out WorSt ..., c44>&: dPn, FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY TABLE OF CONTENTS Narratives of Research Studies by Functional Category 1. Development Policy and Planning................................10 1-A Income Dsrbto....................1 1-B Planning, Growth, and Country Economic Analysis............14 2. International Trade and Finance......................... oe.. .36 3. Agriculture and Rural Development...............................52 5. Transportation, Water, and Telecommunications...................83 7. Urbanization and Regional Development.... ............6.....90 8. Population and Human Resources.......... *.....................104 8-A. Education..................... . .................. 104 8-B. Labor and Employment.....................................112 8-C. Population, Health, and Nutrition............*............116 Numerical Index....................................... 125 Appendix Table 1. Research Support Budget Financial Status of Ongoing and Recently Completed Projects...................132 This dowment has a restricted distribution and aay be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. INTRODUCTION This volume is the second part of the Report of the World Bank Research Program. During FY85, the Bankvide research portfolio contained about 150 research projects, ongoing or completed during this period. These activities are financed by the Research Support Budget (RSB) and are administered by the Office of the Vice President, Economics and Research Staff. The portfolio is described on a project-by-project basis, with each project falling within its functional category. The old Research Committee-funded projects, ranging from Ref. No. 670-23 to 673-32, included three types of research activity: full-scale research projects; research applications; and research preparations. The projects funded since the reorganization of Research Administration and the establishment of the Research Projects Approval Committee cover Ref. Nos. 673-33 to 673-77 and the classification "research application" is no longer used. In the narratives section, a "P" suffix following a project reference number denotes a research preparation, and an "A" denotes a research application. Those research activities funded by the RSB that were completed are followed by a "C", denoting completion before June 30, 1985. The narracive of each of the projects presented includes its title, reference number or code, objectives, descriptive update, responsible department, supervisors, collaborators, and output. Financial data on activities funded by the Research Support Budget can be found in the Appendix. - 2 - II. NARRATIVES OF RESEARCH STUDIES BY FUNCTIONAL CATEGORY I. Development Policy and Planning I.A. Income Distribution 672-21C Studies on Brazilian Distribution and Growth 672-57C Income Formation and Expenditures of Poor Urban Households 672-96PC Resource Mobilization and the Household Economy in Kenya 673-22 The Distribution of Welfare in the Ivory Coast 673-65P Monetary and Fiscal Policies and Financial Institutions in Socialist Countries 673-73 The Political Economy of Poverty, Equity and Growth (673-43P) (Comparative Study) I.B. Planning, Growth, and Country Economic Analysis 671-66 Research Support for the World Development Report 672-16 Reduced Information Methods of International Real Income Comparisons 672-25AC The Development of a SAM Basis for Planning and Modeling in Egypt 672-47C The Development and Extension of Macromodeling in Relation to Thailand 672-49C Development Paths for Oil Exporters: A Long Run Macroeconomic Analysis 672-65 Economic Consequences of the Coffee Boom in East Africa: A Comparative Analysis of Kenya and Tanzania 672-66C Econometric Modeling of Investment and Saving in Korea 672-71C Tax and Contractual Arrangements for Exploiting Natural Resources 672-73C Evaluation and Estimation of National Accounts Statistics for Centrally Planned Economies 672-75 Cross-Country Analysis of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa 672-87AC A Computable General Equilibrium Model for the Ivory Coast 672-92AC Book on Modern Tax Theory for Developing Countries -3- 673-06 A General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS), (Phase III) 673-13 Analysis of the Tax Systems in Developing Countries: Applications to Pakistan and Mexico 673-14 Collaborative Research with China (Phase II) 673-21 Relative Efficiency of Public and Private Expenditures on Social Services in Chile (Small Study) 673-23AC Social-Accounting-Matrix-Based Computable General Equilibrium Model for Cameroon 673-28 Review of Macromodeling 673-34 Cross-Country Analysis of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (Phase II) 673-42 Setting an Agenda for Research Priorities in Sub -Saharan Africa 673-46 Seminar Workshop on Planning and Modeling in Egypt 673-50P Non-Economic Objectives as Determinants of Public Enterprises Deficits in Sub-Saharan Africa 673-51 Patterns of Development: 1950-80 673-52 Bank Seminar Series on "The Frontiers of Economics" 673-62 The Effects of Fiscal Deficits in LDCs 673-63P Macroeconomic Policies and Growth in the Long Run (preproject brief) 673-72 International Comparison of Real Output Levels in Manufacturing II. Inrernational Trade and Finance 671-35C Export Incentives in Developing Countries 671-67C Effects of Increased Imports of Manufactured Goods from Developing Countries 671-82C Penetration of Japanese, Canadian and Australian Markets by LDC Manufacturers 671-68 Key Institutions and Expansion of Manufactured Exports 672-32C The Direction of Developing Countries' Trade: Patterns, Trends and Implications 672-33C Agricultural Trade Patterns in an Expanding European Community and Their Effects on Tunisia 672-85 Liberalization with Stabilization in the Southern Cone 672-97PC The Sequencing and Phasing of Trade Liberalization Policies (see Ref. No. 673-31) 673-01 Assessment of Country Foreign Borrowing Strategies 673-18PC Export Instability and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa 673-31 The Timing and Sequencing of a Trade Liberalization Policy 673-32 Conference on Debt and the Developing Countries 673-37 European Trade Policies and the South 673-40 World Bank-UNCTAD Studies of Non-Tariff Barriers 673-41 Capital Market Regulations: An Economic Analysis of Their Impact 673-49 Macroeconomic Study of Aid and Development 673-56P Growth, Public Finance, and Monitorable Medium-Term Programs for Debt Restructuring 673-59 Trade Policy, Technological Transfer and Quality Control 673-66 State Intervention in the Promotion of the Traded Goods Sector: Japan 673-70 Performance Indicators and Policy Instruments in the Context of Medium-Term Programs for Debt-Restructuring III. Agriculture and Rural Development 671-44C Agricultural Innovation and Rural Development 671-57C Distribution of Income Through the Extended Family System 671-80C Evaluation of Food Distribution Schemes 671-89C India: Impact of Agricultural Development on Employment and Poverty (Phase II) 672-02C The Construction of Econometric Models for the Supply of Perennials: A Case Study of Natural Rubber and Tea in Sri Lanka 672-18C Food Policy Analysis for Practitioners 672-29C The Impact of Agricultural Extension: A Case Study of the Training and Visit Method in Haryana, India 672-30 Production and Distributional Implications of Dairy Development Projects: Effects on Income, Consumption and Nutrition of the Poor 672-39C Market and Agricultural Policy Determinants of Rural Incomes 672-50AC Canal Command Model for Project Design and System Operation in the Indus Basin 672-67C Conditions for Sustained Farm Mechanization 672-80AC A Manual of Agricultural Sector Programing Models 672-82C Agricultural Household Models: Extensions and Policy Implications 672-84C Direct and Indirect Effects of Irrigation: Matar Taluka, Gujarat, India 673-02PC The Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing (see Ref. No. 673-64) 673-04 Managing Agricultural Development in Africa: A Comparative Analysis of Six Countries 673-07AC Agricultural Pricing Policy in Eastern Africa 673-08A Agricultural Pricing Policy in Senegal 673-09C Workshop on the Effects of Externalities on the Efficiency of Irrigated Agriculture in Developing Countries 673-15C Supply Response of Aggregate Crops Output 673-16C Agricultural Mechanization in Africa: Review and Prospects 673-27 Sociological Aspects of Dairy Cooperative Development Projects (Small Study) 673-33 Land Title Security and Farm Productivity: A Case Study of Thai land 673-35 Agricultural Investment, Infrastructure and Rural Financial Markets 673-36 Capital Accumulation and Formal and Informal Credit Markets in West Africa 673-44 Tree Crop Development and Support Programs: Project Design and Cost Recovery 673-47P Comparative Research on Organizational Options for Canal Irrigation - 6 - 673-60P Common Property Resource Management Issues for the Sudano-Sahelian Zone of Sub-Saharan Africa 673-64 The Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing 673-67 The Role of Risk in Sahelian Agriculture 673-74P Small-Holder Tree Farming and Fuelwood Crisis 673-77 Study of the Impact of Irrigation on Production in India IV. Industry 670-23C Scope for CapitaL-Labor Substitution in the Mechanical Engineering Industry 670-24 Programming in the Manufacturing Sector 670-87 Industrial Policies and Economic Integration in Western Africa 672-36A Protection and Incentive Systems in the Turkish Manufacturing Sector 672-4AC Experimental Support Unit for Work on Industrial Incentives and Comparative Advantage (INCA) 672-48 The Acquisition of Technological Capability 672-86C Productivity Change in Infant Indu;try (Phase I) 672-94PC Small-Scale Cement Study 673-03PC India: Study of Industrial Incentives 673-25P Pricing in Large-Scale Manufacturing 673-53 Conference on Small-Scale Enterprise Development in Delhi V. Transportation, Water, and Telecommunications 670-26C Substitution of Labor and Equipment in Civil Construction 670-27 Highway Design Maintenance Standards Study (Phase II) 670-07C The Determinants of Railway Traffic, Freight Transport, and the Choice of Transport Modes 672-83 Pricing and Taxing Transport Fuels in Developing Countries 673-05 Demand for Personal Travel in Developing Countries -7- VI. Energy 672-63C Development and Application of a Minimum Standard Energy Demand Model for Developing Countries 672-70C The Welfare Implications of Eliminating Energy Subsidies in Indonesia 672-74C Adjustment in Oil-Importing Countries VII. Urbanization and Regional Development 671-47C Strategic Planning to Accommodate Rapid Growth in Cities of Developing Countries "The City Study" 672-13C National Spatial Policies: Brazil 672-46 Housing Demand and Housing Finance in Developing Countries (Phase I) 672-58 An Evaluation of Industrial Location Policies for Urban & 672-91 Deconcentration (Phase I & II) 672-59C Participant-Observer Evaluation of Urban Projects 672-64C National and State Analysis of Indian Urban Development 672-81C Development of a Model for Urban Land and Infrastructure Pricing, Costing, and Design 673-17PC Singapore Area Licensing Scheme 673-20PC Follow-up Impact Evaluation of the First Colombian Urban Project 673-29P Urban Infrastructure and Industrial Productivity in West African Countries 673-30 National Low Income Housing Project in Ecuador (Small Study) 673-68P Rent Control in Developing Countries VIII. Population and Human Resources VIII.A. Education 671-49C Education and Rural Development in Nepal and Thailand 671-78C Education and Other Determinants of Farm Household Response to External Stimuli - 8 - 672-09C Mass Media and Rural Development 671-55C International Study of the Retention of Literacy and Numeracy 672-45C Diversified Secondary Curriculum Study (DISCUS) 672-93 Returns to Investment in School Quality in Rural Brazil 673-26 Education and Informal Sector Employment 673-69 A Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Different Types of Secondary Education in Shanghai Municipality, Peoples Republic of China VIII.B. Labor and Employment 671-84C Wage and Employment Trends and Structures in Developing Countries 672-40C Structure of Employment and Sources of Income by Socioeconomic Groups and Regions in Peru 672-95PC International Labor Migration in the Middle East and North Africa Region 673-39P Labor Market Performance and Policies for Labor Absorption in Thailand 673-48P The Real Exchange Rate and Labor Markets VIII.C. Population, Health, and Nutrition 671-02C Population Growth and Rural Poverty 671-73C Kenya: Health, Nutrition, Worker Productivity, and Child Development Studies 672-l0C Health and Rural Development in Nepal 672-19C Poverty, Fertility, and Human Resources in Indonesia 672-42 Determinants of Fertility in Egypt: An Analysis of the Second Round of the Egyptian Fertility Survey 672-60C The Determinants of Fertility in Rural Bangladesh 672-72C Demand for and Willingness to Pay for Services in Rural Mali 672-88PC The Nutritional Effects of Projects Leading to Increases in Small Farmers Marketed Surpluses -9- 672-90PC The Effectiveness of Family Planning Programs 673-38 Health Care Demand and Resource Mobilization: The Case of Peru 673-45 The Second Amman Population and Health Survey 673-58P Potential for Cost Recovery in Health and FamiLy Planning, Gambia 673-75 Nutrition and Health Status in Rural Areas of Burkina Faso IX. Other 673-57 World Bank Economic Review 673-61 The World Bank Research Observer 673-71 Research News - 10 - 1 Development Policy and Planning 1-A. Income Distribution Studies on Brazilian Distribution and Growth Ref. No. 672-21C This study sought to contribute to an understanding of the economic, social, and demographic mechanisms that haxe generated the Brazilian combination of growth and inequality. The release by the Brazilian Census Bureau of a one percent sample of the 1970 population census made it possible to pursue a number of issues at the household level. This research project, now complete, comprised three interrelated sets of studies, each designed to explore the links between demographic variables at the household level and income distribution. The first project linked differences in income across households to other welfare indicators, contributed to the definition of socioeconomic groups, and established a base line for comparison with the 1980 census. The second set of studies examined the important question of humar capital formation at the household level, focusing on the schooling decision. The third set of studies examined infant and child mortality as aspects of distribution of income. Responsibility: Country Policy Department and Development Research Department -- Nancy Birdsall and Constantino P. Lluch, respectively, in collaboration with Thomas W. Merrick of Georgetown University (consultant). Reports Behrman, Jere R., and Birdsall, Nancy. "The Quality of Schooling: Quantity Alone is Misleading." American Economic Review, vol. 73, no. 5 (December 1983). . "Three Studies in the Economics of Education Using Brazilian Data." Country Policy Discussion Paper No. 1983-1. The World Bank, February 1983. Birdsall, Nancy. "Public Inputs and Child Schooling in Brazil." Journal of Development Economics (forthcoming). Birdsall, Nancy, and Fox, M. Louise. "Why Males Earn More: Location and Training of Brazilian Schoolteachers." Economic Development and Cultural Change (forthcoming, 1984). Birdsall, Nancy, and Meesook, Oey Astra. "Child Schooling, Number of Children and the Intergenerational Transmission of Inequality: A Simulation." Population and Human Resources Division Discussion Paper No. 81-19. The World Bank, May 1981. Fox, M. Louise. "Income Distribution Analysis in Brazil: Better Numbers and New Findings." Processed. The World Bank: Development Research Department, 1982. Jen, C. "Urban Female Labor Force Participation in Brazil." Ph.D. dissertation. State University of New York Buffalo, 1983. Lluch, Constantino P. "Income Distribution and Family Characteristics in Brazil." Processed. The World Bank: Development Research Department, August 1981. - 11 - . "On Measures of Income from the Censuses and National Accounts in Brazil." Pesquisa e Planejamento Economico, vol. 12(1)(April 1982):133- 48. . "On Poverty and Inequality in Brazil." Pesquisa e Planejamento Economico, Vol. 11(3)(December 1981):757-82. Merrick, Thomas W. "The Effect of Piped Water on Early Childhood Mortality in Urban Brazil, 1970 to 1976." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 594, 1983. Income Formation and Expenditures of Poor Urban Households Ref. No. 672-57C The project was designed to yield more definitive information on the real resources at the command of urban families and, thus, on their ability to afford shelter and other essential services. Background work done by the World Bank in El Salvador and the Philippines has shown that an important part of the total income of many poor families comes as transfers from other households. The study examined the sources of income and types of expenditure of urban households in low-income areas of Cartagena, Colombia. Its objective was to provide a better understanding of the determinants of income transfers, the motivation of these transfers, and the rights and obligations associated with them. The study yielded insights into the capacity to pay for housing and related services and into the appropriate criteria for selecting project beneficiaries. Responsibility: Urban Development Department -- Michael Bamberger and Daniel Kaufmann, assisted by Lisa Peattie, Scott Parris, and Anna Sant'Anna (consultants). The sample survey and preparation of the initial data was conducted by the Instituto SER de Investigacion in Bogota. Reports Kaufmann, Daniel. "Social Interactions as a Strategy for Survival Among the Urban Poor: A Theory and Some Evidence." Ph.D. dissertation. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University, 1982. Kaufmann, Daniel, and Lindauer, David. "Basic Needs, Interhousehold Transfers and the Extended Family." The World Bank: Urban and Regional Economics Division, Urban and Regional Report No. 80-15, 1980. Reforma, Mila, and Obusan, Ricci. "Household Networks and Survival Strategies Among the Urban Poor: Monetary and Non-monetary Transfers Among Selected Families in Tondo." The World Bank: Urban and Regional Economics Divison, Urban and Regional Report No. 81-22, 1981. "A Study of Income and Expenditure Patterns of Households in the Tondo Foreshore Area." Summary of a report prepared by the Research and Analysis Division, National Housing Authority, The Philippin2s, 1981. - 12 - Resource Mobilization and the Household Economy in Kenya Ref. No. 672-96PC This study prepared the second stage of a project on interhousehold transfers which began with small studies in El Salvador, Colombia, and the Philippines. The distributive impact of income transfers, an analysis of transfers as a strategy of survival among the urban poor, and how cities contribute to the development of the rural economy were some of the issues to be addressed in the research. Responsibility: Urban Development Department -- Michael Bamberger, and Country Policy Department -- Oey Astra Meesook. The Distribution of Welfare in the Ivory Coast Ref. No. 673-22 This investigation of welfare levels in the Ivory Coast is the World Bank's first in-depth monitoring of the distribution of welfare on a national or regional basis in a sub-Saharan African country. The project's first phase will analyze data from a nationwide consumption and income survey involving 1,980 households in 1979; its second phase will establish, in collaboration with the Ivory Coast's Direction de la Statistique, a permanent household survey with the capability of monitoring market and household activities among Ivorian families. Data from this second phase will be used to measure welfare changes over time and across regions and to analyze sources of welfare differentials. The first waves of the permanent survey will serve as the basis for work on three research topics: (1) a comparative analysis of Ivorian welfare distribution based on the 1979 and 1985 data; (2) an exploration of underlying causes of welfare differentials with special emphasis on labor market activities in the Ivory Coast's "informal" sector; and (3) an analysis of survey activities aimed at refining LSMS's recommendations for future living standard surveys. The project is cosponsored by the World Bank's Living Standards Research Unit which is developing improved methods for measuring welfare in developing countries. LSRU will use information from the 1979 survey to adapt prototype questionnaires to the informational needs of the proposed permanent survey. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- Jacques van der Gaag, Dennis de Tray, and Christiaan Crootaert, in collaboration with Martha Ainsworth and Juan Munoz, consultants, and B. Daho, Direction de la Statistique (STAT), Ministry of Planning and Industry of the Ivory Coast and A. Atsain, Centre Ivorien de Recherche Economique et Social (CIRES). - 13 - Monetary and Fiscal Policies and Financial Institutions in Socialist Countries Ref. No. 673-65P To maintain approximate price stability, to realize a target investment rate, to ensure full employment, of at least the scarcest factor of production and to achieve a socially desirable level and composition of "common consumption" are central policy objectives of the decentralized socialist economies. However, economists and planners in these countries have so far not yet succeeded in devising an alternative approach - through monetary, fiscal and credit policies - which would lead toward these objectives without having to resort to direct interventions in income and price policy. This proposed research project seeks to contribute to addressing this gap in macroeconomic policymaking in socialist countries, by exploring alternative policy packages of fiscal and monetary tools appropriate to a decentralized socialist institutional framework. Further, this study seeks to develop operationally meaningful concepts which could lead to a decentralized, efficient system of financial intermediation that is both compatible with socialist political tenets, and is responsive to an efficient credit policy. Responsibility: Country Policy Department - Y. Huang. The Political Economy of Poverty, Equity and Growth (Comparative Study) Ref. No. 673-73 This study is intended to be a comparative analysis of the different experiences of growth and income distribution in different developing coun- tries in recent decades. In particular, it will explore the process of inter- action between growth, equity, poverty alleviation, and alternative public policies, using a selection of countries whose post-war economic experiences of growth and equity promise to offer insights and "lessons" of wider rele- vance. The study will use an analytical history approach, conducted in a framework of "political economy," in order to explore interactions between (i) the conventional economic variables; (ii) the broader social and political factors including the organizational settings of the economies; and (iii) the alternative public policies including the orientations of the policy goals and che instruments and mechanisms adopted to pursue these goals. This study will make use of preliminary results from the other comparative studies (Ref. Nos. 673-31 and 673-64), both phased to start prior to this project. It is expected to provide the Bank and policymakers with a broader understanding of 1) how the differing poverty, equity and growth outcomes can be related to particular policies, whether trade and industrial policies, fiscal and monetary policies, pricing or labor market intervention; 2) the circumstances in which particular policy packages are likely to lead to better poverty and growth outcomes; and 3) the role of initial conditions (physical and human resource endowments, trade orientation, agricultural systems and socioeconomic institutions) in explaining growth-equity outcomes. - 14 - Responsibility: Economics and Research - Deepak Lal and Oey A. Meesook, in collaboration with Dr. H1a Myint, London School of Economics. The 22 individual country studies will be carried out by 11 researchers with the help of local collaborators. 1-B. Planning, Growth, and Country Economic Analysis Research Support for the World Development Report Ref. No. 671-66 The object of this study is to develop a price-endogenous, interregional model for the world economy, in support of the World Bank's global model of trade and capital flows. The Mark III series of modes emerging from the present study are designed to capture the economic realism of a mixed economy where some features of behavior correspond to the competitive equilibrium, while others reflect existing market rigidities. In either case, the normative decisions of the economic agents play a major role in the mechanics of the solution processes. In fiscal years 1979 and 1980, the focus was on the construction of the model. In the third year, Mark III was used extensively in sensitivity runs for the fourth World Development Report. In the fourth year of the project, the focus was on (1) documentation of the entire system; (2) implementation of a more disaggregated version of Mark III with emphasis on the behavior in the markets for agricultural commodities; and (3) use of a version of Mark III in studying the adjustment pattern of developing countries following the first oil-shock of 1973-74, through the use of historical simulations. The completion of the project was then extended by several years to 1985 in order to accommodate the development of a new version of the global model called the R.U.N.S. This version permits a more detailed simulation- based work on the role of agricultural policies in development. Responsibility: Economic Analysis and Projections Department -- Peter Miovic. The research was performed largely at the Free University of Brussels (Belgium) under the direction of Jean Waelbroeck. Reports Burniaux, J. M. "First Experiments with a World Agricultural Model in a General Equilibrium Framework." Discussion Paper 8205, Center for Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Universite Libre de Bruxelles. 1982. Burniaux, J. H. "Impact of Growth and Price Policies on the Pattern of World Trade." Discussion Paper, Center for Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, University Libre de Bruxelles. 1983. In 0. Havrylyshyn, (ed.), South-South or South-North Trade?: The World Bank (forthcoming). Burniaux, J. M. "A North-South Rural Urban General Equilibrium Model: - 15 - Theoretical Overview of the Agricultural Sector." Discussion Paper, Center for Mathematical Economics and Econometrics, Universite Libre de Bruxelles (forthcoming). Burniaux, J. M. (1984) "Perspectives du Deficit Alimentaire des Pays en voie de Development." Published in Researches Economiicues de Louvain. Also to be published in Proceedings of the Brussels Conference of the Societe d'Econometrie Appliquee. Burniaux, J. M. "Impact of a Shift of Investment to Agriculture on the World Economy." Presented at the Conference on General Equilibrium Analysis organized by IIASA in Sofron, Hungary 1984. To appear in the proceedings of that meeting. Burniaux, J. M. and Waelbroeck, J. L. 1983. "Agricultural Protection in Europe: Its Impact on Developing Countries and in Particular on ASEAN." In H. C. Rieger, (ed.), Asean-EC Cooperation: The Prospects. ISEAS, Singapore (forthcoming). Burniaux, J. M. and Waelbroeck, J. L. (1984). "Impact of 50% Tariff Cuts in the Varuna Model of the World Economy." Boston, Mass.: MIT Press, forthcoming. Burniaux, J. M. and Waelbroeck, J. L. (1984). "Impact of the Common Agricultural Policy on Developing Countries." To be published in the proceedings of a Conference held in Bangkok by the South East Asia Institute of Singapore. A non-technical version will be published next spring in "Survey of the EC and the Third World, No. 5," edited by C. Stevens and J. Verloren van Themaet. Burniaux, J. M. and Waelbroeck, J. L. "A Rural Urban North-South Model of the World Economy." Issued as a Discussion Paper of the University of Brussels, 1984. Carrin, C., Gunning, J. W., and Waelbroeck, J. L. "A General Equilibrium Model for the World Economy: Some Preliminary Results." In B. Hickman, (ed.), Global Modelling, Amsterdam, North-Holland, 1983. Gunning, J. w. wRationing in an Open Economy: Fix-price Equilibrium and Two gap Models." European Economic Review (1983): 23-1. Cunning, J. W. "Basic Goods, the Effects of Commodity Transfers and the International Economic Order: A Comment." Journal of Development Economics 13, 1-2, (1983): 197-204. Gunning, J. W. "The Transfer Problem: a Rejoinder." Journal of Development Economics 13, 1-2, (1983): 249-250. Gunning, J. W., Carrin, C., Waelbroeck, J. L. and associates (J. M. Burniaux, J. Mercenier). "Growth and Trade of Developing Countries: A General Equilibrium Analysis." Discussion Paper 8212, Center for Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, University Libre de Bruxelles. 1982. Mercenier, J. and Waelbroeck, J. L. "International Trade and Economic Growth: Experiments in Using a Fixed Real Wage General Equilibrium Model." Discussion Paper 8212, Center for Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Universite Libre de Bruxelles 1982. In K. Jungenfeld (ed.), Adjustment and Structural Change in Trade Dependent Advanced Economies (forthcoming). Mercenier, J. L. and Waelbroeck, J. L. (1983). "Model Linkage with the Brussels Equilibrium Model." In Journal of Policy Modelling (forthcoming). - 16 - Waelbroeck, J. L. 1979. "A Global Development Model." Discussion Paper 7901, Center for Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Universite Libre de Bruxelles. 1979. Waelbroeck, J. L. and Gupta, S. "World Bank Modelling; A Survey on Development." In E. Gahan (ed.), Proceedings of the Fourth Input Output Conference (forthcoming). Waelbroeck, J. L. and Cupta, S. 1983. "Capital Foreign Exchange and Growth: The TWo Gap and Labor Income Floor Views." Discussion Paper No. 83, Center for Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Universite Libre de Bruxelles. In Westphal, L. and Syrquin, H. (eds.), Economic Structure and Performance. (Academic Press: forthcoming). Reduced Information Methods of International Real Income Comparisons Ref. No. 672-16 This research project is designed to investigate various approaches to reduced information estimates, with a view to finding one that will enable the ICP at the United Nations to extend real income comparisons to countries not covered by the full-scale ICP work and to develop annual comparisons for interbenchmark years for the countries covered by the benchmark study. The three approaches being investigated are: a) working with data regularly collected by national statistical organizations for their published price indices; b) selecting a small sample of prices based on the judgment of experts; and c) determining analytically (for example, with multiple regression) the best subset of items that will predict the PPPs at various levels of gross domestic product aggregation. Data collection, computation and analysis have been completed. A total of fuarteen countries were surveyed. In Asia, India and Indonesia, and in Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe were directly surveyed by the World Bank. Four Central American countries -- Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, and Panama - were surveyed by consultants in Guatemala. The European Economic Community provided data for Morocco, Senegal, and Tunisia. Data for the United States were constructed by the project staff from information obtained from the United Nations and various agencies of the U.S. government. A preliminary draft on work completed thus far has been prepared. The report will be finalized after the reduced information results are evaluated against the ICP Phase IV benchmark results, which are expected to become available from the United Nations later this year. Responsibility: Economic Analysis and Projections Department -- Sultan Ahmad, in collaboration with Professors Irving Kravis, Alan Heston, and Robert Summers of the University of Pennsylvania, the Centro de Estudios Centroamericanos de Integracion y Desarrollo (ECID), Guatemala, and the Statistical Office of the European Community, Luxembourg. - 17 - Reports Ahmad, Sultan. "Approaches to Purchasing Power Parity Comparisons Using Shortcuts and Reduced Information." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 418, September 1980. . "Seminar on Appraisal of ICP Results for World Bank Application -- Summary of Proceedings." Comparative Analysis and DaLa Division Working Paper No. 1983-1. The World Bank: Economic Analysis and Projections Department, 1983. . "Shortcut Methods of International Comparisons of Real Product and Purchasing Power of Currencies." Ph.D. dissertation. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania, 1978. Development of a SAM Basis for Planning and Modeling in Egypt Ref. No. 672-25AC The Egyptian economy is going through a period of profound structural change requiring careful economic management. Consequently, there is a pressing need to base the process of decisionmaking on sound factual grounds. This project was intended to fulfill this need for the Government of Arab Republic of Egypt through a collaborative effort with the Development Research and Technical Planning Center (DRTPC) of Cairo University. It aimed at strengthening the capacity of the DRTPC to build social accounting matrices (SAMs) and to develop and maintain SAM-based models for development plannning. The project was designed in two phases. The first one focused on budiling the data base and consolidating it in a SAM framework. Three SAMs of different levels of disaggregation were completed. The second phase of the project was concerned with the development of economywide models using the SAM as their data base. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- Graham Pyatt and Wafik Grais, now with Europe, Middle East and North Africa Country Programs Department with staff participation of Arne Drud and Boris Pleskovic; Europe, Middle East, and North Africa Country Programs Deapartment -- Amarendra Bhattacharya and Sadiq Ahmed; Industry Department - Kemal Dervis; in collaboration with Amr Mohieldin at the Development Research Technical Planning Center (DRTPC), Cairo University. Reports Bhattacharya, A., and Grais, W. "A Modeling Framework for Macroeconomic Management of a Regulated Economy." Mimeo. The World Bank: Development Research Department, 1982. Crosswell, M., and Pleskovic, B. "Social Accounting Matrices for Egypt: Outlines and Suggestions for Disaggregation of Individual Accounts." The World Bank: Development Research Department, May 1981. Mohieldin, Amr, et al. "Social Accounting Matrices for Egypt." Mimeo. Cairo: Development Research and Technical Planning Center (DRTPC), Cairo University, 1983. - 18 - The Development and Extension of Macromodeling in Relation to Thailand Ref. No. 672-47C The two main objectives of this project are 1) to develop an economywide framework for structural adjustment analysis for Thailand available to both the government and the World Bank, and 2) to enhance the modeLing capacity of the Bank. The first objective led to the joint development of an economywide general equilibrium model by the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) of Thailand and by the Bank, and focused on the issue of structural adjustment in production and trade patterns. Four paralleL studies, whose purpose is to provide a better understanding of the behavior embedded in the model and to address issues of structural adjustment not covered by the model, are being completed on (1) consumption patteis, (2) the behavior of the trade balance and the current account deficit, () investment savings and crowding out, and (4) the employment consequences of structural adjustment. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- Wafik M. Grais (now with the Europe, Middle East and North Africa Country Programs Department) and Arne Drud; and East Asia and Pacific Regional Office -- A. Steer, in collaboration with Phisit Pakkasem and Piyasawasti Amranand of the National Economic and Social Development Board of Thailand. Reports Amranand, P., and Grais, W. "Macroeconomic and Distributional Implications of Sectoral Policy Interventions -- An Application to Thailand." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 627, 1984. Decaluwe, B., and Grais, W. "La methode TV pour la construction de modeles empiriques d'equilibre general." Processed. The World Bank: Development Research Department, 1983. Drud, A.; Grais, W.; and Pyatt, G. "The Transaction-Values Approach to the Formulation and Implementation of General Equilibrium Models." Development Research Department Discussion Paper No. 62. The World Bank, 1983. Development Paths for Oil Exporters: A Long Run Macroeconomic Analysis Ref. No. 672-49C This research project addresses the longer run development options and problems facing the "capital deficit" oil-exporting economies. Included in this group are: Algeria, Ecuador, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. The present research project has two components. The objective of the first part is to document, analyze, and compare the dynamic options selected by several oil exporters and the consequences for their nonoil - 19 - economies. As comparators, the experience of developed oil exporters - Norway and the United Kingdom -- will also be included. The second component of the project is to formally model the impact of key policy options for a particular country and to assess the development paths resulting from such choices. Such an exercise has been undertaken for Indonesia, one of the poorest of the oil exporters, and includes the simulation of hypothetical alternative paths over a time frame of twenty years. Responsibility: Development Research Department - Alan H. Gelb. A number of consultants are involved in comparative analysis and data collection. Reports Bienen, Henry. "Oil Revenues and Policy Choices in Nigeria." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 592, May 1983. Bowden, Roger, and Gelb, Alan H. "Testing Stylised Facts: An Application of Random Parameters Estimation." Development Strategy Division Working Paper No. 82-3. The World Bank: Development Research Department, June 1982. Conway, Patrick, and Gelb, Alan H. "Oil Windfalls in a Controlled Economy: A Fix-Price Equilibrium Model of Algeria." Development Research Department Discussion Paper. The World Bank, 1984. Downey, Roger J.; Keuning, Steven, et al. "An Indonesian SAM." Development Strategy Division Working Paper No. 83-5. The World Bank: Development Research Department, June 1983. Gelb, Alan H. "Capital-Importing Oil Exporters: Adjustment Issues and Policy Choice." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 475, August 1981. . "The Oil Syndrome: Adjustment to Windfall Gains - Oil Exporting Countries." Development Research Department Discussion Paper. The World Bank, 1984. Economic Consequences of the Coffee Boom in East Africa: A Comparative Analysis of Kenya and Tanzania Ref. No. 672-65 Using the "experiment" of the coffee boom of 1976-78 and detailed modeling of the economies of Kenya and Tanzania, which responded to the boom in markedly different ways, the research had the following principal objectives: 1. To evaluate alternative policies for alleviating rural poverty in East African economies, with particular emphasis on the relative efficacy of policies for the pricing of export crops and of public expenditures. 2. To attempt to garner lessons for optimal domestic policy responses to sharp, temporary changes in the world price of a major agricultural export crop. - 20 - 3. To augment the quantitative analytical bases for studying and evaluating economic structures and policies in these two East African economies. Existing economywide models for the two countries will serve as starting points. Using new microsurvey data sets that have emerged since the earlier models were constructed, the proposed study will devote a major effort to modeling smallholder agriculture, specifying and estimating detailed fiscal "modules", integrating major "modules" into a computable general equilibrium framework, and conducting a number of simulations to gauge the effects of alternative policy thrusts and responses on growth and income distribution. Responsibility: Eastern Africa Country Programs Department -- David C. Greene. Principal researchers are Paul Collier, Keble College and the Institute of Economics and Statistics, Oxford University; David L. Bevan, St. John's College, Oxford; Arne Bigsten, Gothenberg University, Sweden; and Jan GunnLng, Free University, Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Economic Modeling of Investment and Saving in Korea Ref. No. 672-66C In the case of the Republic of Korea which was selected for the purposes of this research, the government has accumulated some experience in the area of macromodeling, and World Bank economic and sector work for the country necessitates the use of more sophisticated analytical techniques. The objectives of the project are threefold: (1) to describe the pattern of investment in the manufacturing sector over the past decade and with the aid of econometric models to isolate the principal determinants of investment at the aggregate as well as the subsectoral Levels; (2) to attempt to explain savings behavior in Korea by using theories and econometric techniques successfully applied in developed countries; and (3) to estimate some of the major structural parameters of the economy by way of a model based on the neo- Keynesian methodology. These exercises can be seen as a contribution towards putting macro- policymaking on a more rigorous footing. Responsibility: East Asia and Pacific Country Programs Department -- Shahid Yusuf, in collaboration with R. Kyle Peters, Jr. of the East Asia and Pacific Regional Office and Sayeed Sadeq (consultant). Tax and Contractual Arrangements for Exploiting Natural Resources Ref. No. 672-71C The objective of this project is to design policies for taxes and contracts that will provide sufficient incentives to attract foreign firms to explore for and produce exhaustible natural resources in developing countries, - 21 - while maintaining as much of the rent for the producing country as possible. This search for optimal policies will also take account of the risks borne by the contracting parties. In the course of the research, a typology of countries will be constructed, classified by characteristics such as the costs of exploration, the degree of riskiness versus possible returns as seen by extraction firms, and the degree and success of past exploration activity. Particular attention will be given to countries (many of them in sub-Saharan Africa) with little activity in exploration or production in the past. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- Arvind Virmani. Evaluation and Estimation of National Accounts Statistics of Centrally Planned Economies Ref. No. 672-73C The project aimed at (a) identifying the "best" methods for estimating GNP levels and growth rates for eight selected centrally planned economies and for deriving the conversion factors for translating their national accounts data in national currencies into US dollars, and (b) providing illustrative computations of their GNP and growth rates for the benchmark year 1980. The countries studied were Bulgaria, Cuba, Czechoslovakia, the German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and the USSR. The project reviewed alternative methods for reflecting the relative volume of total production and examined the appropriateness of official exchange rates as conversion factors and the role of prices in CPEs in valuing the volumes of goods and services which constitute GNP. Responsibility: Economic Analysis and Projections Department -- Sang E. Lee. The principal research was Professor Paul Marer, Indiana University. Reports Campbell, R. W. The Conversion of National Income Data of the U.S.S.R. to Concepts of the System of National Accounts in Dollars and Estimation of Growth Rates. World Bank Staff Working Papers (forthcoming, 1985). Collier, I. L. The Estimation of Gross Domestic Product and Its Growth Rate for the German Democratic Republic. World Bank Staff Working Papers (forthcoming, 1985). Fallenbuchl, Z. M. National Income Statistics for Poland, 1970-1980. World Bank Staff Working Papers, (forthcoming, 1985). Hewett, E. A. The Gross National Product of Hungary: Important Issues for Comparative Research. World Bank Staff Working Papers (forthcoming, 1985). Jackson, M. R. National Accounts and the Estimation of Gross Domestic Product and Its Growth Rates for Romania. World Bank Staff Working Papers (forthcoming, 1985). - 22 - Levcik, F., and Havlik, P. The Cross Domestic Product of Czechoslovakia, 1970-1980. World Bank Staff Working Papers (forthcoming, 1985) Marer, P. Dollar GNPs of the U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe. Johns Hopkins University Press (forthcoming, 1985). Mesa-Lago, C., and Perez-Lopez, J. A Study of Cuba's Material Product System, Its Conversion to the System of National Accounts, and Estimation of Gross Domestic Product per Capita and Growth Rates. World Bank Staff Working Paper (forthcoming 1985). Singh, S., and Park, J. National Accounts Statistics and Erchange Rates for Bulgaria. World Bank Staff Working Papers (forthcoming, 1985). Van Brabant, J. M. Exchange Rates in Eastern Europe: Types, Derivation, and Application. World Bank Staff Working Papers (forthcoming, 1985). Wolf, T. A. Exchange Rates, Foreign Trade Accounting, and Purchasing-Power Parity for Centrally Planned Economies. World Bank Staff Working Papers (forthcoming, 1985). Cross-Country Analysis of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa Ref. No. 672-75 The study uses econometric analysis to attempt to estimate the importance of environmental and policy variables in contributing to the stagnation of output growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Environmental variables include weather, the terms of trade, international interest rates, foreign aid, civil strife, refugee flows, and economic conditions in nearby labor- importing states (for example, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, South Africa, and the Middle Eastern countries of the Persian Gulf). Policy variables under examination are those indicating the nature and degree of government intervention in international trade, intervention in domestic product and factor markets, and allocation of public expenditures. A workshop to discuss the preliminary findings was held in August 1983. In general terms, the preliminary results indicated that both the environment -- terms of trade, civil strife -- and policy are important in explaining African growth in the 1970s. Recommendations from workshop and results from other research projects in the Bank are being used in the formulation of the third phase, which commenced in the fall of 1983. Responsibility: Western Africa Regional Office -- Akbar Noman. The research is being undertaken by Professor David R. Wheeler (consultant) of Boston University. Reports Wheeler, David. "Sources of Stagnation in Sub-Saharan Africa." (Summary of first phase results of research regarding the role of external variables). The World Bank, November 1982. - 23 - A Computable General Equilibrium Model for the Ivory Coast Ref. No. 672-87AC The purpose of this research application project is to develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the economy of the Ivory Coast as one of two submodels that would be used to help formulate the key policy tradeoffs in the country's process of structural adjustment and transition to an oil economy. The specification of a long-term multisector CGE model will parallel the development of a macroeconometric model for medium-term projections focusing on highly aggregated variables. This project is part of a joint work program with the Government of the Ivory Coast whose objectives are to broaden the scope of the macropolicy dialogue between the government and the Bank; to prepare the groundwork for analyzing macroeconomic policy issues arising from the structural adjustment process; to reinforce administrative units responsible for macroeconomic projections within the government; and to develop collaborative arrangements with Ivorian researchers. Responsibility: The development of the CGE model for the Ivory Coast has been undertaken with the joint responsibility of the government's Directorate of Planning at the Ministry of Planning and Industry and of the World Bank's Development Research Department, Development Strategy Division, and its West Africa Programs Department, Division 2A -- Gilles Michel and Michel Noel, respectively. Sherman Robinson, currently on leave at the University of California at Berkeley, codirected the project in its first year and continues as an advisor. Reports Michel, G., and Noel, M. "The Ivorian Economy and Alternative Trade Regimes." In C. Delgado and W. Zartman (eds.), "The Political Economy of the Ivory Coast." New York: Praeger, 1984. . "Short-Term Responses to Trade and Incentive Policies in the Ivory Coast." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 647, June 1984. Book on Modern Tax Theory for Developing Countries Ref. No. 672-92AC The object of this project is to produce a book that will (1) describe the rapid development of the theory of public finance in the last decade which has had a dramatic effect on the way policy interventions are analyzed; (2) explain the theory's relevance to developing countries; (3) demonstrate how it can be used; and (4) identify issues on which further research is needed in order to widen application of the theory. The groundwork for this book was Laid at a Workshop on Public Economics in Developing Countries, organized by the Bank's Development Research Department in June 1982. A range of leading writers on public economics, many of whom presented papers at the workshop, have prepared chapters for the book. - 24 - The draft manuscript was discussed at a conference held at the Bank in July 1984, and the authors are now engaged in redrafting in the light of comments made at that meeting and by subsequent referees. The final manuscript is expected to be available in December 1984. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- Pradeep K. Mitra, in collaboration with other Bank staff in the department's Public Economics Division and in the Country Policy Department. Principal consultants and coeditors are David M. Newbery, Churchill College, Cambridge University, and N. H. Stern, Warwick University (United Kingdom). A General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS), Phase III Ref. No. 673-06 Mathematical modeling has developed into one of the major tools of strategic planning. The project explores a machine-intensive route to modeling, and its objective is a dramatic reduction in the time needed to develop a model, in the technical skills required, and in the total cist associated with existing modeling and data systems. GAMS is a system that provides a formal framework for the specification, manipulation, generation, and reporting of models and their associated data. Phase I of the project concentrated on language definitions, the integration of a relational data-base into the system, and the automatic interface to commercial linear programming systems. Phase II was developed on the basis of responses and recommendations from users. The major thrust was in the area of large nonlinear models that use new concepts in automatic recognition of structures and the facilities of an extended data-base. A prototype model for Control Data Corporation computers has been operational in production environments of several universities and research institutes since 1981. The project is now in Phase III, whihc plans to make the system available for a large number of computer and operating systems to permit wider distribution in developing countries. Phase III is jointly sponsored by the World Bank and the Communication and Computer Science Department of Exxon Corporation. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- Alexander Meeraus and Arne Drud, in collaboration with Paul van der Eijk, Anthony Brooke, and Charlene Bashford of Exxon Corporation (consultants). Completion date: June 1985. Reports Bisschop, J., and Meeraus, A. "Matrix Augmentation and Partitioning in the Updating of the Basis Inverse." Mathematical Programming, vol. 13, no. 3 (1977): 241-54. - 25 - . "Matrix Augmentation and Structure Preservation in Lindearly Constrained Control Problems." Mathematical Programming, vol. 18, no. 1 (1980): 7-15. . "On the Development of a General Algebraic Modeling System in a Strategic Planning Environment." Mathematical Programming Study 20 (1982): 1-29. . "Selected Aspects of a General ALgebraic Modeling Language." In Proceedings of the 9th IFIPS Conference on Optimization. Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer Verlag, 1980. . "Towards Successful Modeling AppLications in a Strategic Planning Environment." In G. Dantzig, M. Dempsler, and M. Kellio (eds.), Large- Scale Linear Programming. Vienna: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 1981. Drud, A. "Adding Algorithms to Existing Modeling Systems." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 5 (1983). . "Alternative Model Formulations in Nonlinear Programming--Some Disastrous Results." In Operations Research (forthcoming). . "Combining an Optimal Control Program with the Time Series Processor System." In J.M.L. Jannsen, L.F. Pau, and A.J. Straszak (eds.), Dynamic Modeling and Control of National Economics. Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1981. ___. "CONOPT: A GRG Code for Large Sparse Dynamic Nonlinear Problems." In Mathematical Programming (forthcomming). . "The Implications of Modeling Systems on Large-Scale Nonlinear Optimization Codes." In M.J.D. Powell (ed.), Nonlinear Optimization 1981. London and New York: Academic Press, 1982. . A Survey of Modeling Systems." Journal of Economic Synamics and Control 5 (1983). Kendrick, D. "Style in Multisector Modeling." In A.J. Hughes-Kendrick, D. "Style in Multisector Modeling." In A.J. Hughes-Hallet (ed.), Applied Decision Analysis and Economic Behavior. Boston and the Hague: Kluwer and Nijhoff, 1984. Kendrick, D.; Meeraus, A.; and Suh, J. "Oil Refining Modeling and the CAMS Language." Research Report No. 14. Austin: Center of Energy Studies, University of Texas, 1981. Lasdon, L., and Meeraus, A. "Solving Nonlinear Economic Planning Models Using GRG Algorithms." In Proceeding of the International Symposium of Systems Optimization and Analysis. Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer Verlag, 1979. Meeraus, A. "An Algebraic Approach to Modeling." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 5 (1983). "GAMS--User's Guide." The World Bank, Development Research Department, 1982. Analysis of the Tax Systems in Developing Countries: Applications to Pakistan and Mexico Ref. No. 673-13 The objective of this research is to study the tax systems of Pakistan and Mexico to identify the direction tax reform should take and the most efficient and equitable ways in which to raise extra revenue, as well as - 26 - to provide information on the working of the current tax system necessary for informed decisionmaking. A more fundamental objective is to develop a methodology of public finance such that similar studies can be undertaken in the future for a wider range of developing countries. The study will entail analyses of the impact of indirect "axes on prices (taking account of the taxation of intermediate goods), the implicit tax component in public enterprises, tariffs, personal income tax reforms, and market structure. A number of other research projects, currently under way within the Bank, employ the same methodological framework, including "Book on Modern Tax Theory for Developing Countries" (Ref. No. 672-92 in this category) and "Pricing and Taxing Transport Fuels in Developing Countries" (Ref. No. 672-83 in category 6, Energy). Responsibility: Development Research Department and Country Policy Department -- Pradeep K. Mitra and Lyn Squire, respectively, with the previous substantive contribution of David M. Newbery, currently of Churchill College, Cambridge University (United Kingdom), who will continue with the project as a consultant. Other consultants are Nicholas H. Stern, Ehtisham Ahmad, and Jesus Seade, Warwick University (United Kingdom). The British Social Science Research Council is cofunding part of the study. Reports Pakistan Ahmad, Ehtisham, Coady, David and Nicholas Stern. "Fiscal Reforms, Shadow Prices and Effective Taxes in Pakistan: A Preliminary Analysis." Processed. University of Warwick: Development Economics Research Centre Discussion Paper 48, June 1984. Ahmad, Ehtisham, Leung, H-M, and Nicholas Stern. "Dem%nd Response and the Reform of Indirect Taxes in Pakistan." Processed. University of Warwick: Development Economics Research Centre, June 1984. Mexico Alberro, Jose. "Summary of the Workshop on the Analysis of the Tax Systems in Developing Countries: Pakistan and Mexico." El Colegio de Mexico, A.C., updated. Processed. Aspe, P. "Macroeconomic Effects of Taxes Changes" (in Spanish: translation in preparation). The World Bank, Development Research Department, November 1984. Processed. Baillet, A. "An Analysis of Direct Taxation on Mexican Households: A Micro- simulations Approach." The World Bank, Development Research Department, December 1984. Processed. Clavijo, F.; and Cordoba, J. "Revenue and Expenditure from Macroeconomic Adjustment to Structural Change." The World Bank, Development Research Department, undated. Processed. Fernandez, A. "Evasion, Avoidance and Response to Taxation: Theory and Evidence far Mexico." The World Bank, Development Research Department, undated. Processed. Garcia Alba, P. "Results on Indirect Taxation with Independence of Demand Parameters: The Mexican Case." The World Bank, Development Research Department, November 1984. Processed. - 27 - Gil Diaz, F. "Public Sector Pricing." The World Bank, Development Research Department, undated. Processed. Jarque, C. "The Econometrics of Demand in Mexico: Estimates for Tax Analysis." The World Bank, Development Research Department, November 1984. Processed. Sanchez Ugarte, Fernando. "Taxes on Firms and Responses to Incentives." The World Bank, Development Research Department, October 1984. Processed. Seade, Jesus. "The Mexican Fiscal System Research Project: An Overview." University of Warwick: Development Economics Research Centre, November 1984. Processed. ___. "Implicit Effective Taxes on Commodities: Excises, Public Pricing and Commercial Policy." University of Warwick: Development Economics Research Centre, November 1984. Processed. Seade, Jesus; and Flores, G. "Price Distortions and Fiscal Policy in Mexico: I - Commodity Taxation and Pricing Policy (Summary Notes)." University of Warwick: Development Economics Research Centre, April 1985. Processed. Seade, Jesus; and Romp, G. "The Pricing and Taxation of Commodities in Mexico: An Analysis of Reform." University of Warwick: Development Economics Research Centre, April 1985. Processed. Collaborative Research with China (Phase II) Ref. No. 673-14 This collaborative research project with the Institute of Economic Research at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is now in its final stages. The first part of this project was an analysis of the system of enterprise guidance in China: the system as it worked in the past, the effect of current reforms, and the likely effect of proposed reforms. The main source of information was interviews with key personnel in 20 enterprises. An international conference on enterprise management issues was held in Beijing in late August of 1985. Fourteen papers were presented at the conference by economists from China, the World Bank, as well as from the U.S., Hungary, and India. Most of the papers covered various aspects of Chinese industrial enterprises, including the planning system, factor allocation, supply and marketing, the role of markets, and issues of ownership and organization. Some of these papers drew heavily from the interviews of the 20 sample enter- prises. A few papers presented experiences in enterprise management in Hungary, Yugoslavia and CMEA countries, and of the public sector in India and other market economies. The papers will be revised in the light of the dis- cussions at the conference and will be published in both English and Chinese early next year. The second part was concerned with structural change. A paper has been published as a World Bank Staff Working Paper, Private Household Consumption in China. Another Staff Working Paper on the same subject is forthcoming, entitled Analysis and Preliminary Forecast of China's Urban and Rural Domestic Consumption Structure. Four other papers are in different - 28 - stages of production including "Economic Growth and Structural Change in the Soviet Economy: 1959-72", "Sources of Economic Growth and Structural Change in China: 1956-81," "Pattern of Development since 1960: Comparison for China", and "Economic Growth and Structural Change in the Indian Economy (1959/60, 1973/74)." Responsibility: East Asia and Pacific Country Programs Department and Developmert Research Department -- Edwin R. Lim and Gregory K. Ingram, respectively. For the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, overall supervision of the program is being provided by Dong Furen, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics. Gene Tidrick and William Byrd, of the East Asia and Pacific Country Programs Department, together with Chen Jiyuan and others of the Institute of Economic Research, are the principal researchers on enterprise guidance, while Benjamin King (consultant), Shujiro Urata, and Jacques van der Gaag of the Development Research Department, together with Li Xuezeng and others of the Institute of Economic Research, are the principal researchers on structural change. Reports Byrd, W.; Tidrick, G.; Jiyuan, C.; Lu, Xu; Zongkun, T.; and Lantong, C. "Recent Chinese Economic Reforms: Studies of Two Industrial Enterprises." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 652 (forthcoming). van der Gaag, Jacques. "Private Household Consumption in China: A Study of Peoples' Livelihood." World Bank Staff Working Paper (forthcoming). Relative Efficiency of Public and Private Expenditures on Social Services in Chile (Small Study) Ref. No. 673-21 As a complement to a larger-scale study of the incidence of public expenditure on social services in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, and Uruguay -- financed by the Inter-American Development Bank -- a small study is being financed by the World Bank to extend the analysis of that study in Chile only. The small study will include a Limited examination of the relative efficiency and cost of education, housing, and health services that are being provided by the state, on the one hand, and by firms or semiprivate organizations, on the other. An objective of the study is to test the commonly held hypothesis that a state is less efficient in providing social services than private alternatives. The small study in Chile is being conducted by the Instituto Latinoamericano de Doctrina y Estudios Sociales (ILADES) and is a partial by- product of the much Larger study in the four countries, mentioned above, that is being supervised by ECIEL (Estudios Conjuntos para La Integracion Economica Latinoamericana), a consortium of national research institutions in Latin America. Resfonsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Country Programs Department I -- Paul M. Meo and Luis Ernesto Derbez. The coordinator and - 29 - chief researcher is Jorge Rodriguez Grossi of the Instituto Latinoamericano de Doctrina y Estudios Sociales (Chile). Social-Accounting-Matrix-Based Computable General Equilibrium Model for Cameroon Ref. No. 673-23AC The purpose of this research application project is to develop a social accounting matrix and a general equilibrium model for development planning in Cameroon that makes most use of current data, motivates improvement in the government's statistical systems, and furnishes analysis of alternative planning options. This is the first CGE to be constructed of an oil-surplus economy with a predominantly agricultural base. The model is tailored to the Cameroonian case in that it captures certaii features of the economy, such as rigidities in the labor market, capital market imperfections, and membership in the Central African Franc Zone. Because of its usefulness in simulating alternative investment programs, the costs of adopting specific policies, and their effects over the medium term, this dynamic general equilibrium planning model is to be used by the government of Cameroon in formulating its Sixth Economic Plan (1986-90). The World Bank has provided training to two researchers from Cameroon in designing, building, and later implementing, the multisectoral, price- endogenous model. Responsibility: West Africa Programs Department II - Derek A. White and Development Research Department - Sherman Robinson (on leave at the University of California at Berkeley), in collaboration with Nancy C. Benjamin, University of California at Berkeley, and Shantayanan Devarajan, Harvard University (consultants). Reports Benjamin, Nancy C., and Devarajan, Shantayanan. "Oil Revenues and Protectionism in Cameroon: Experiments with a Computable General Equilibrium Model." Processed. The World Bank: West Africa Programs Department II, March 1984. . "Une Matrice de Comptabilite Sociale du Cameroun, 1979-80." Processed. The World Bank: West Africa Programs Department II, December 1983. Review of Macromodeling Ref. No. 673-28 Over the past decade the Bank has sponsored a number of country analytic exercises inyolving the development and use of multisectoral economywide models. - These exercises have addressed a variety of policy issues, notably the impact of alternative trade and exchange rate regimes, - 30 - fiscal policies, and the consistency of national plans, frequently using models within the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and related classes. The impact of policies upon domestic income distribution, resource allocation and growth typically has been investigated. The present review documents these exercises, and assesses the contribution of such quantitative modeling exercises to policy analysis. It also attempts to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of currently available model-building technologies, to recommend improvements to render the construction and use of multisectoral models more effective, and to integrate these activities more closely with data collection and analysis. Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office and Development Research Department -- Guy P. Pfeffermann and Alan H. Gelb, Chairman and Secretary, respectively, Internal Review Committee. Reports Whalley, John. "A Review of Numerical Modeling Activity at the World Bank." Internal Review. The World Bank, July 1984. "Report oi the Committee on Economywide Modeling." Internal Review. The World Bank, July 1984. Cross-Country Analysis of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (Phase II) Ref. No. 673-34 The primary focus of the research to date (Phase I) has been an attempt to measure the relative degree to which policy and the environment have been responsible for differences in the growth rates of African states since independence. The results of an econometric analysis indicate that events of the character of force majeure have had a major impact on relative growth performance, and that the true effects of individual policy variables can be gauged only after "environmental" impacts have been accounted for. The proposed Phase II of the project would broaden the basic mode of analysis employed in Phase I while shifting the focus toward a more explicit consideration of alternative policies and their effects. The emphasis of the econometric research would shift from comparison of decennial changes across countries to comparisons using a pooled cross section of time series for the Sub-Saharan African states, The econometric research in Phase II would have three principal goals: 1) to estimate policy response equations for individual countries which linked environmental changes to movements in important policy variables; 2) to estimate output change equations which incorporated the enhanced set of policy variables while continuing to control 1/ Such recent exercises include components of research and research application projects 672-04 (Turkey), 672-25A (Egypt), 672-26A (Yugoslavia), 672-38A (Cyprus)., 672-47 (Thailand), 672-49 (Indonesia), 672-87A (Ivory Coast), 673-23A (Cameroon). - 31 - for the impact of the environmental variables; and 3) an analysis of the extent to which government policy formation should be regarded as "endogenous" in an appropriately-specified model. The proposed study will also undertake a systematic analysis of the reasons for differences between countries' responses to changes in environ- mental variables, using estimated parameters from the policy response equations as a means of identifying sets of countries whose reactive behavior has been similar, Possible bases for this observed similarity would be explored through a comparative analysis of social, political, and economic characteristics. Responsib'lity: Eastern Africa Projects Department and Western Africa Regional Office - Jacob Meerman and Akbar Noman, respectively. Setting an Agenda for Research Priorities in Sub-Saharan Africa Ref. No. 673-42 The development of this research agenda is part of an effort to promote a better understanding of the process of economic development in sub- Saharan Africa and the factors underlying the present deteriorating economic situation. It is hoped that this may contribute to improving the analytical basis for policy formulation. The agenda seeks to identify some research questions which merit the development of high quality research proposals by the worldwide research community. These research priorities were developed during two meetings. The first, in Easton, Maryland, sought to elicit the views of Bank respirchers and regional staff regarding main research priorities. The second meeting, at the Bellagio Conference Center in Bellagio, Italy, brought together African policymakers, academics and World Bank staff. The final report, An Agenda of Research Priorities for Sub-Saharan Africa, which appeared in July 1985, covered research priorities in four main areas; trade policy and macroeconomic adjustment; public economic and resource mobilization; agricultural development and policy; and population and human resources. Responsibility: Operations Policy Staff -- Marcelo Selowsky, and Development Research Department - Uma Lele. Seminar Workshop on Planning and Modeling in Egypt Ref. No. 673-46 A seminar on SAM-based economic modeling and policy analysis was held in Cairo in October 1984. The series of panel discussions included participation by World Bank staff, officials from the Ministry of Planning, - 32 - the Institute of National Planning, CAPMAS; commercial banks and leading Egyptian academics from the Cairo University, the University of Sanaa in North Yemen and Kuwait Industrial Bank. The seminar focused on the usefulness of SAM-based modeling as a tool for development planning in Egypt. The Egyptian research team reported on the findings of an aggregative SAM-based model they had formulated, drawing substantially on the basic research undertaken under RPO 672-25A. They also identified the key medium-to-longterm issues that Egypt should seek to address including energy pricing, exchange rate, consumer subsidies policy, tax reform, public enterprise pricing and agricultural price policy. Responsibility: Europe, Middle East, and North Africa Country Program Department 1 -- S. Ahmed. Non-Economic Objectives as Determinants of Public Enterprises Deficits in Sub-Saharan Africa Ref. No. 673-50P The deficits of public enterprises constitute a significant proportion of the total central operating deficits of many sub-Saharan African Countries. No accurate estimate is available but rough estimates suggest that they represent at least one-third of these deficits. Although deficits of public enterprises are generally assumed to be due to the inefficient use of their existing resources, part of these deficits is a product of the non- economic objectives that governments impose on these enterprises. Most obvious are stipulated minimum employment levels and wage scales, and regulated maximum prices to be charged in selling their outputs, but there are many others (locational requirements, restrictions on choice of technology, supplies, transport modes, and so forth). These deficits can be viewed as the result of the prices and quantitative restrictions that explicitly or implicitly the government impose on firms, in addition to the result of allocative decisions taken by managers given a set of price signals. The purpose of this research preparation request is to develop a methodology to (a) quantify the deficit, taking into account "hidden" charges; (b) attempt to decompose the observed deficit of selected groups of enterprises in sub-Saharan Africa into those due to "pure inefficiency factors" and those due to "non-economic objectives"; (c) identify more alternative, efficient instruments to achieve these non-economic objectives. Responsibility: Projects Policy Department -- Arturo Israel and Mary M. Shirley. - 33 - Patterns of Development: 1950-1980 Ref. No. 673-51 A 1975 World Bank study, Patterns of Development, 1950-1970 (Hollis Chenery and Moises Syrquin) provided a uniform analysis of the principal changes in economic structure that normally accompany economic growth. The purpose of the current project is to extend this earlier Bank study by including data for 1971-1982, analyzing the stability of development patterns and attempting to resolve some of the questions as to the relations between cross-country and time-series estimates. The availability of comparable data for the seventies provides an opportunity to address several issues that have become more important with the passage of time or are now more tractable because of the large data base and analytical developments in related areas. The new study has a number of objectives: 1) to analyze the development patterns of the decade 1971-1980, compare them to the earlier findings, and to reestimate some of the signifi- cant time trends in resource allocation for the period 1950-1980; 2) to assess the major structural changes of the 1970's in the light of the long-term trends; 3) to refine the country typology of alternative patterns of develop- ment, and to explore alternative country groupings; and 4) to analyze the effect on development patterns of using alternative estimates of real income. The analysis will seek to identify the changes in the structure of production and trade that have taken place as part of the adjustment to rising energy prices by treating the oil-importing countries as a separate group. The structures of demand and production will be analyzed in both current and constant prices, and to the exLent that there are systematic variations in relative prices across countries and over time, these will appear in the comparison of the two formulations. Variations in relative prices in the course of development has received scant attention in comparative analysis. Two main reports are envisioned. The first one would analyze the major trends of the past decade as revealed by the cross-country patterns as compared to the previous two decades. A second paper would focus on the relations between time-series and cross-section estimates of the main processes of accumulation and resource allocation. Responsibility: Economic Analysis and Projections -- Arabinda Kundu, and Development Research Department -- Shujiro Urata, in collaboration with Hollis Chenery and Moises Syrquin. Bank Seminar Series on "The Frontiers of Economics" Ref. No. 673-52 This Bank seminar series on The Frontiers of Economics is being jointly sponsored by the Country Policy Department and the West Africa - 34 - Regional Office. The series is intended to provide continuous intellectual stimulus for Bank staff and to keep them abreast of the latest developments in economic research. Distinguished guest speakers from outside the Bank will present monthly seminars providing non-technical surveys of their current research interests and suggest their applicability to the immediate policy or ongoing research interests within the Bank. This series of seminars seeks to introduce to the Bank current thinking on a variety of topics from the leaders within the economics profession and encourage Bank staff to obtain the intel- lectual stimulus increasingly important for effective Bank operations and research. The program to date has included Robert Barro (Rochester) in March; Ed Leamer (UCLA) in April; Mancur Olson (Maryland) in May; and Robert Lucas (Chicago) in June. A tentative list of future speakers includes George Akerloff (Berkeley); James Buchanan (Virginia); Robert Clower (UCLA); Avinash Dixit (Princeton); Rudiger Dornbusch (MIT); Jacob Frenkel (Chicago); Robert Hall (Stanford); AxeL Leijonhufvud (UCLA); Michael Mussa (Chicago); Tom Sargent (Minnesota); Christopher Sims (Minnesota); and Joseph Stiglitz (Princeton). Responsibility: Country Policy Department -- Armeane Choksi and Bruce F. Fitzgerald; and Western Africa Regional Office -- Stephen O'Brien. The Effects of Fiscal Deficits in LDCs Ref. No. 673-62 The basic doctrine of macroeconomics teaches that increases in fiscal deficits have an expansionary effect on nominal income. This "fiscal multi- plier effect" in Keynesian theory depends positively on the extent of spare capacity in the economy. Recently, however, econometric work and the experi- ence of governments have shown that despite high levels of spare capacity and unemployment, fiscal multiplier effects have been considerably smaller in recent years than they were under conditions of much fuller employment. Indeed, there is evidence for OECD countries that increasing deficits may gen- erate economic expansion in t,e shortrun but contraction in the longrun. This study has two main objectives. The first is to examine the experience of developing countries to determine whether the behavior of fiscal multipliers corresponds to that found in OECD countries, and ultimately to determine whether the standard doctrine needs substantial revision. The second is to attempt to explain the "perversity" of the fiscal multiplier by finding the circumstances which influence the variation in its value, given that the level of unemployed capacity is not the sole determinant. The central hypothesis in this study is that variation in the fiscal multiplier .:an be explained by the omission from the standard economic model of "credibility" and "confidence." The emergence of the perverse multiplier in recent years may be explained by the deterioration of confidence since the currency regime change. One aim of this study will be to conceptualize and - 35 - quantify "confidence" and to determine the main factors behind "loss of confi- dence" and expectational shifts. Using such a measure, the study will attempt to determine to what extent changes in confidence may affect multipliers and, in the context of these findings, examine the experience of developing coun- tries to see whether it parallels that documented in industrialized countries. Responsibility: Water Supply and Urban Development Department - Alan A. Walters. Macroeconomic Policies and Growth in the Long Run (preproject brief) Ref. No. 673-63P This proposed large-scale comparative study of macroeconomic management during periods of crisis will focus on three central questions: 1) why some countries have succumbed to crisis and others not; 2) the effects of crises and the manner of resolving them on long-term growth; and 3) how best to effect transition to more stable but rapid growth. This comparative study, embracing a large number of countries in all continents, will attempt to throw light on the problems that governments face in devising policies that are most conducive to long run growth in an often rapidly changing economic environment. Responsibility - Office of the Vice-President, Economics and Research Staff - Sarath Rajapatirana with I.M. Little (consultant), Nuffield College, Oxford, and Max Corden (consultant), Australian National University, Canberra. International Comparison of Real Output Levels in Manufacturing Ref. No. 673-72 International comparisons of output and productivity performance are basic ingredients of much of the Bank's macroeconomic and sector analysis. However, comparison at official exchange rates can be misleading in a world where inflationary experiences varies widely and where these rates are always changing. In order to meet this situation the Bank has financed a substantial research effort on the four phases of the ICP project, which substitutes "purchasing power parity" ratios for exchange rates. These can be appl.ed to the official CDP estimates in national currencies to provide estimates of GDP in a comparable unit. This work continues a tradition created by O.E.E.C. and has helped greatly in illuminating and facilitating macroeconomic growth analysis. However, the ICP benchmarks for final demand components (consumption, investment, etc.) are not very useful for sectoral analysis as they do not show real product by industry. This handicaps comparative structural analysis, work on labour or total factor productivity, growth accounting, studies of technological performance, or rectoral competitiveness. - 36 - The present proposal is to use the industry of origin approach to measure real output levels in the manufacturing sector. It is part of a bigger research project intended to cover the whole economy of which earlier studies on agriculture and mining were the first installments. The benchmark year is 1975 in order to facilitate comparison with the results of the third phase of the ICP. It is proposed to carry out a pilot project for four countries, Brazil, India, Mexico and the USA to compare levels of real output in manufacturing. The basic source will be the censuses of manufacturing of the individual countries. These provide quantitative indicators of output levels in considerable detail as well as information on employment and on the values of gross output, value added and inputs at national prices. The quantitative material will be used to derive basic indicators of relative output levels for particular products, and these will be aggregated using value weights to derive estimates of value added, labor productivity and purchasing power ratios for each of the 28 ISIC 3-digit branches of manufacturing. Each country's output wi.l be revalued at the other countries' "prices". Whereas the ICP study yielded purchasing power parities for about 150 final expenditure items, the prices emerging from our study will be producer prices for individual manufacturing products, and weighted average purchasing power ratios for the major branches of manufacturing. When the results of the four country studies are ready, it is intended to make a crosscheck with the more summary information published annually in the UN Yearbook of Industrial Production to see how far the latter source may be improved to provide short-cut estimates for other countries in future. Responsibility: Economic Projections Department - Sultan Ahmad. The principal investigator is Professor Angus Maddison (consultant), Groningen University (the Netherlands). 2 International Trade and Finance Export Incentives in Developing Countries Ref. No. 671-35C A detailed analysis of the impact of export incentives on the expansion of the export of manufactured goods by developing countries through a cross-sectional investigation of major export products and a time-series analysis of the effects of export promotion measures is the object of this research project. It evaluates, in a comparative framework, the export promotion efforts of three countries -- Greece, Republic of Korea, and Pakistan. ALL the count-y studies are being carried out with the support of the governments concerned. - 37 - Rates of export incentives are estimated and compared with the social profitability of specific exports. An international synthesis will provide a comparison of the results obtained in each country and for each product. The results will be used to formulate recommendations on the scope and methods of export promotion in developing countries, with emphasis on the countries under study. Responsibility: Office of the Vice President, Economics and Research Staff -- Bela Balassa. Collaborating are the following authors of the country studies: Greece -- Demetrios Papageorgiou, Country Policy Department, Evangelo Voloudakis, Bank of Greece, and Panagiotis Fylaktos, Center for Planning and Economic Research, Athens; Korea -- Yung Whee Rhee and Garry Pursell, Industry Department, and Suk Tai Suh, Yonsei University, Seoul; Pakistan -- Mohammed Zubair Khan, International Monetary Fund. Reports Khan, Mohammed Zubair. "The System cf Export Incentives in the Manufacturing Sector of Pakistan." Karachi, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, 1982. Rhee, Yung Whee; Ross-Larson, Bruce; and Pursell, Carry. "Korea's Competitive Edge: Managing the Entry into World Markets." Published for the World Bank by The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, Maryland, 1984. Suh, Suk Tai. "The Effects of Export Incentives on Korean Export Growth: 1953-79." Seoul, Korea Development Institute, September 1982. Voloudakis, Evangelo, and Fylaktos, Panagiotis. "Greek Exports, Determinants and Policies, 1960-1979." Athens, Central Bank of Greece and KEPE, July 1983. Westphal, Larry E.; Rhee, Yung Whee; and Pursell, Garry. "Foreign Influences on Korean Industrial Developwent." Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 41, no. 4 (November 1979). . "Korean Industrial Competence: Where It Came From." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 469, July 1981. Effects of Increased Imports of Manufactured Goods from Developing Countries and Penetration of Japanese, Canadian and Australian Markets by LDC Manufacturers Ref. Nos. 671-67C and 671-82C The purpose of these studies was to analyze the effects of increases in imports of manufactured goods from developing countries on product and factor markets in selected industrial countries - Australia, Canada, the European Economic Community, Japan, Sweden, and the United States. The studies consisted of (1) examining the extent of import penetration of markets in the industrial countries by various developing regions and countries in order to determine the market shares of particular groups of developing countries; (2) determining the impact of competition from developing countries on exports of manufactures of industrialized countries; and (3) analyzing the factors that lead to protectionist actions against imports from developing countries, or to high market penetration without such actions. - 38 - Responsibility: Economic Analysis and Projections Department -- Helen Hughes and Vasilis Panoutsopoulos. The principal researchers and institutes associated with the project are Robert E. Baldwin, University of Wisconsin, and Jean Waelbroeck, Free University of Brussels (Belgium), who is coordinating the European Studies, which are taking place at the Overseas Development Institute (United Kingdom); University of Lille (France); Institut fur Weltwirtschaft, Kiel (Federal Republic of Germany); Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm, and the University of Umea (Sweden); Erasmus University, Rotterdam (the Netherlands); Centre for Development Studies, Antwerp (Belgium); and Confederazione Generate dell' Industria Italiana; Canadian North-South Institute; Australian National University; and Japan Economic Research Center. Reports Anderson, Kym, and Baldwin, Robert E. "The Political Market for Protection in Industrial Countries: Empirical Evidence." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 492, October 1981. Bale, Malcolm D., and Mutti, John H. "Output and Employment Changes in a 'Trade Sensitive' Sector: Adjustment in the U.S. Footwear Industry." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 430, October 1980. Also in Weltvirtschaftliches Archiv (June 1981). Babe, Bernard. "Public Assistance to Industry and Trade Policy in France." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 570, 1983. Cable, Vincent. "Economics and Politics of Protection: Some Case Studies of Industries." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 569, 1983. Cable, Vincent, and Rebelo, Ivonia. "Britain's Pattern of Specialization in Manufactured Goods with Developing Countries and Trade Protection." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 425, October 1980. Evans, John C.; Glenday, Graham; and Jenkins, Glenn P. "Worker Adjustment to Liberalized Trade: Costs and Assistance Policies." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 426, October 1980. Glismann, H. H., and Weiss, F. D. "On the Political Economy of Protection in Germany." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 427, October 1980. Grilli, Enzo. "Italian Commercial Policies in the 1970s." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 428, October 1980. Hamilton, Carl. "Effects of Non-Tariff Barriers to Trade on Prices, Employment and Imports: The Case of the Swedish Textile and C1'.:hing Industry." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 429, October 1980. . "A New Approach to Estimation of the Effects of Non-Tar-f Barriers to Trade: An Application to the Swedish Textile and Clothing Industry." Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, vol. 117, no. 2 (1981):298-325. . "Public Subsidies to Industry: The Case of Sweden and its Shipbuilding Industry." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 566, 1983. Hughes, Helen, and Waelbroeck, Jean. "Can Developing-Country Exports Keep Growing in the 1980s?" The World Economy (June 1981):127-47. Jenkins, Glenn P. "Costs and Consequences of the New Protectionism: The Case of Canada's Clothing Sector." North-South Institute, July 1980. Koekkoek, K. A.; Kol, J.; and Mennes, L. B. M. "On Protectionism in the Netherlands." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 493, October 1981. Lundberg, Lars. "Patterns of Barriers to Trade in Sweden: A Study in the Theory of Protection." World Bank Staff Paper No. 494, October L981. - 39 - Messerlin, P. A. "The Political Economy of Protection: The Bureaucratic Case." WeLtwirtschaftliches Archiv, vol. 117, no. 3 (1981):469-96. Tharakan, P. K. M. "The Political Economy of Protection in Belgium." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 431, October 1980. Verreydt, Eric, and Waelbroeck, Jean. "European Community Protection against Manufactured Imports from Developing Countries: A Case Study in the Political Economy of Protection." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 432, October 1980. Waelbroeck, Jean. "The Commercal Policy and Relations with Developing Countries." In P. Quisumbing (ed.), European Integration: A Useful Experience for ASEAN? Manila, Philippines: University of Manila (forthcoming). . "Politique commerciale commune et theorie du commcrce exterieur." Economie appliquee, no. 2 (1983). . "Protection, Employment and Welfare in a Stagflating Economy." Center for Econometrics and Mathematical Economics (CEME) Working Paper No. 8201. Brussels (Belgium): Free University of Brussels, 1982. Also in Helen Hughes (ed.), Labor and Development, Proceedings of Section 4 of the 1980 Congress of the International Economic Association held in Mexico (fortacoming). . "Trends of EC Protection and the Prospects of ASEAN Trade." In N. Akrasanee and H.C. Rieger (eds.), ASEAN-EC Economic Relations. Singapore Institute for Southeast Asian Studies, 1982. Waelbroeck, Jean, co-author with G. Curzon et al. The MFA Forever? London: Trade Policy Research Center, 1981. Key Institutions and Expansion of Manufactured Exports Ref. No. 671-68 This project is designed to fill gaps in current knowledge by investigating the effects of particular institutional arrangements in selected areas that are crucial to the exports of manufactured goods by developing countries, such as nontariff protection and marketing. A principal focus is research into marketing and related nonprice aspects of exports by locally-owned firms in developing countries of consumer goods sold in leading industrial countries. The second focus of the study has been textile quotas against developing countries under the Multifiber Arrangement and their effects on trode in clothing and textiles. Studies have been made of the evolution, functioning, impact, and prospects of this system of managed trade. Responsibility: Eastern Africa Regional Office -- Donald B. Keesing. Recent participants include Martin H. Wolf, Lawrence H. Wortzel, David Morawetz, and Camilo Jaramillo (consultants). Reports Keesing, Donald B. "Linking Up to Distant Markets: South to North Exports of Manufactured Consumer Goods." American Economic Review 73 (May 1983):338- 342. - 40 - Keesing, D. B., and Wolf, Martin H. "Questions in International Trade in Textiles." The World Economy, 1 (March 1981):79-101. . Textile Quotas Against Developing Countries: A Study of Managed Trade. London: Trade Policy Research Centre, 1980. The Direction of Developing Countries' Trade: Patterns, Trends, and Implications Ref. No. 672-32C The potential for increased trade among developing countries, the benefits from expanding that putential, the constraints upon it, and the appropriate policy choices have become of increasing interest to analysts and policymakers. This project seeks to examine -he characteristics of such trade among developing countries and the determinants of the level of their trade in different directions. The project will have two distinct phases. Using the department's central data bank, the first comprises three elements -- a "market shares analysis" for five commodity groups of changes in exports by individual developing countries to different destinations, a more detailed examination of the commodity characteristics of the different export baskets, and a "gravity model" analysis, in which the exports of a particular commodity from a country to all country destinations are regressed upon the principal determinants of trade volume. The second will focus on institutional barriers to trade among developing cour-tries such as restrictions on trade, marketing, cr3dit, and transportation. Responsibility: Economic Analysis and Projections Department -- Peter Miovic, in collaboration with Professor Oli Havrylyshyn of George Washington University (consultant). Reports Alikhani, Iradj, and Havrylyshyn, Oli. "The Political Economy of Protection in Developing Countries: A Case Study of Korea and Colombia." World Bank International Trade and Capital Flows Division, Working Paper no. 1982-4, (July 1982). Havrylyshyn, Oi. "The Direction of Developing Country Trade." Journal of Economic Development (forthcoming). Havrylyshyn, Oli and Alikhani, tradj. "Is there Cause for Export Optimism? A Second Generation of Successful Exporters." Weltwirtschafts Archiv (December 1982), Finance and Development (March 1983), and World Bank Reprint Series Number 277. . "Protection Levels and Policies in Developing and Industrial Countries: An Annotated Bibliography. 1983, EPDIT. Processed. Havrylyshyn, Oli and Civan, Engin. "Intra-Industry Trade and the Stage of Development." Ch. 11 in P.K.M. Tharakan (ed.) Intra-Industry Trade, Elsevier Publishers (1983). . "Intra-Industry Trade Among Developing Countries." Journal of Economic Development (forthcoming). - 41 - Havrylyshyn, Oi and Wolf, Martin. Trade Among Developing Countries. World Bank Staff Working Paper no. 479. . "Principal Trends in Trade Among Developing Countries. European Economic Review, (December 1982), and World Bank Reprint Series Number 278. . "Promoting Trade Among Developing Countries." Finance and Development (March 1982). Khanna, Ashok. Testing for the Direction of Exports: India's Exports of Manufactures in the 1970s. Bank Staff Working Paper no. 538. Agricu..tural Trade Patterns in an Expanding European Community and Their Effects on Tunisia Ref. No. 672-33C The European Community (EC) as a bloc is the largest importer of agricultural products in the world. This research addresses the question of the impact of an expanded European Community (and its associated Common Agricultural Policy) on horticultural trade from nonmember countries. The effects on one country, Tunisia, are being studied in terms of alternative markets or end-products (fresh versus processed) for their existing output, and alternative crops for their agriculture. Further, a disaggregated sector model (a linear competitive equilibrium model) of Tunisian horticulture is being developed. From the model it is possible to simulate the impact on output, prices, and income of changes by product in the Lrading regime faced by Tunisia. The objective of the work is to provide a reasoned basis for export adjustment and promotion. Responsibility: Country Policy Department -- Malcolm D. Bale. Principal researchers and institutes associated with the project are Professor Reimar V. Alvensleben, Institute of Horticultural Economics, University of Hannover (Federal Republic of Germany), and Claude Falgon, of Roland Olivier Conseil, Paris (France). Reports Bale, Malcolm, and Bowers, Alan. "A Profile of 'orld Bank Activity in Fruit and Vegetable Projects." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1983-18, December 1983. Bale, Malcolm. "Fruit and Vegetable Projects in Developing Countries: The Contrijution of the World Bank." Acta Horticulturae, (June 1984). Bale, Malcolm, and Koebter, Utlrich. "Maginot Line of European Farm Policies." The World Economy 6 (1983): 373-391. Koester, Ulrich, and Bale, Malcolm. "The Common Agricultural Policy of the European Community: A Blessing or a Curse for Developing Countries?" World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 630, February 1984. Alvensleben, R. V., Behr, H-C and Jahn, H-H. "Prospective Effects of the U Enlargement on the Markets for Fruit and Vegetables." Processed. June 1984. Falgon, C. "Enlargement of the EC and Export Prospects for the Tunisian Fruit and Vegetable Subsectors." Processed. April 1984. - 42 - Liberalization with Stabilization in the Southern Cone Ref. No. 672-85 After several decades of a development strategy based on import- substitution and extensive direct control of all markets, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay introduced profound reform packages in the mid-1970s that included liberalization and stabilization policies. Spanning labor, commodity, and financial markets, these reforms are still in progress ir Uruguay, are being overhauled in Argentina, and are fairly advanced in Chile. The objective of this project is to understand how these countries are adjusting to the new environment and, thereby, to identify policy packages that minimize the costs associated with transition to a more liberal regime. The research strategy is to identify and measure the costs and benefits of the reforms at the microeconomic level. How these adjustments at the microeconomic Level add up to economywide costs and benefits will be inferred by measuring sources of growth and structural change at the sectoral level. By macro analysis, it will be established whether adjustment -- successful or unsuccessful -- was due to the application of stabilization or liberalization policies. The project will have two phases and last about four years. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- Vittorio Corbo and Jaime de Melo, cosponsored by the Latin America and the Caribbean Region Office, and in collaboration with a number of consultants: Amalio H. Petrei, Fundacion Mediterranea, in Argentina; James R. Tybout of Georgetown University; Julio Galvez, Escuela de Administracion, Universidad Catolica, Chile; Jose Delfino, Universidad Nacional de Cordoba; Jaime Mezzera, PREALC, Santiago; Juan Carlos Protasi and Ricardo Pascale, Universidad del Uruguay; Graciela Kaminsky, Boston College; Roque Fernandez, Centro de Estudios Macroeconomicos de Argentina; Robert Cumby, New York University; and Eric Swanson (consultant). Reports Condon, T., Corbo, V. and de Melo, J. "Productivity Growth, External Shocks and Capital Inflows in Chile During 1977-81: A General Equilibrium Analysis." Development Research Department, Discussion Paper No. 91. The World Bank, September 1984. Also, Journal of Policy Modelling (forth- coming). Condon, T., Corbo, V. and de Melo, J. "Capital Inflows, the Current Account, and the Real Exchange Rate: Tradeoffs for Chile, 1977-81," Discussion Paper No. 108, November 1984. Corbo, V. "Desarrollos Macroeconomicos Recientes en la Economia Chilena." Cuadernos de Economia (April 1983):5-20. . "Reforms and Macroeconomic Adjustments in Chile: 1974-81." World Development (August 1985). . "International Prices, Wages and Inflation in the Open Economy: A Chilean Model." Development Research Department, Discussion Paper No. 68. The World Bank, December 1983. Also, in Review of Economics and Statistics (forthcoming). - 43 - , and de Melo, J. "Measuring Technical Efficiency: A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies with Census Data," Development Research Department, Discussion Paper No. 68. The World Bank, December 1983. Also in A. Dogrammaci and N. R. Adam (eds.), Managerial Issues in Productivity Analysis, Boston: Kluwer-Nijhoff Publishing Co. (forthcoming). , de Melo, J. and Tybout, J. "What Went Wrong with the Recent Economic Reforms in the Southern Cone." Economic Development and Cultural Change (forthcoming). Cumby, Robert and van Wijnbergen, Sweder. "Fiscal Policy and Speculative Runs on the Central Bank under a Crawling Peg Regime: Argentina, 1974-81." Forthcoming in J. Bhandari, ed., Exchange Rate Management Under Uncertainty, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. de Melo, J. "Summary of Findings." Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, February 1985. Development Research Department. (Includes list and abstracts of papers in progress). Processed. , Pascale, R. and Tybout, J. "Microeconomic Adjustments in Uruguay during 1973-81: The Interplay of Real and Financial Shocks." World Development (August 1985). and Tybout, J. "The Effects of Financial Liberalization on Savings and Investment in Uruguay." Economic Development and Cultural Change (forthcoming). and Urata, S. "Market Structure and Performance: The Role of International Factors in a Trade Liberalization." Development Research Department, Discussion Paper No. 71, January 1984; revision, December 1984 as "The Influence of Increased Foreign Competition on Industrial Concentration and Profitability." Fernandez, R. "The Expectations Management Approach to Stabilization: Argentina, 1976-81." World Development (August 1985). Galvez, J. and Tybout, J. "Microeconomic Adjustment in Chile during 1977-81: The Importance of Being a Croup." World Development (August 1985). Hanson, J. and de Melo, J. "The Uruguayan Experience with Liberalization and Stabilization: 1974-81." Journal of Inter-American and World Affairs (November 1983):477-502. _. "External Shocks, Financial Reforms and Stabilization Attempts in Uruguay: 1974-83." World Development (August 1985). Petrei, H. and Tybout, J. "How the Financial Statements of Argentine Firms Reflected Stabilization and Reform Attempts: 1976-81." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 707, Washington, D.C., August 1984. Tybout, J. "The Algebra of Inflation Accounting." Discussion Paper No. 84. The World Bank. July 1984. Urata, S. "Price-Cost Margins and Imports in an Oligopolistic Market." Economic Letters 15 (1984):139-44. The Assessment of Country Foreign Borrowing Strategies Ref. No. 673-01 This project addresses the problem of how to choose a level of foreign borrowing appropriate to a country's economic structure and consistent with its other macroeconomic objectives, permitting the realization of gains - 44 - from using international capital markets, without unduly prejudicing future creditworthiness. It focuses on assessing the factors that should be considered in formulating a foreign borrowing strategy, identifying the welfare gains from external borrowing, and clarifying the policy options in avoiding debt crises. The research has two main aims: to provide a methodology to assist country economists and developing country policymakers in formulating appropriate borrowing strategies, and to strengthen the Bank's analytical capability for assessing country debt-servicing capacity in the medium term. The detailed features of the model to be developed will be drawn from the characteristics of five countries selected as case studies, Colombia, Costa Rica, Senegal, Sudan and Thailand. Responsibility: Country Policy Department -- Homi J. Kharas, Robert B. Myers, Zmarak Shalizi; Economic Analysis and Projections Department -- Nicholas C. Hope; and Development Research Department -- Arne Drud, in collaboration with Anthony Brooke, Reuven Click, and Hisanobu Shishido (consultants). Reports Chhibber, A., and Chanem, H. "The Impact of Foreign Inflows on Consumption: An Econometric Analysis for Six Developing Countries: 1960-1983." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1984-25. The World Bank, 1984. Crawford, V. P. "International Lending, Long-Term Credit Relationships, and Dynamic Contract Theory." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1984-23. The World Bank, 1984. Ghanem, H. "Senegal: A Study of Alternative Foreign Borrowing Strategies." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1985-5. The World Bank, 1985. , Kharas, H. J. and Myers, R. "Senegal: Creditworthiness Study." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1984-7. The World Bank, 1984. and Kharas, H. J. "LDC Foreign Borrowing and the Real Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1985-28. The World Bank, 1981. Glick, R. and Kharas, H. J. "Optimal Foreign Borrowing and Investnent with an Endogenous Leniing Constraint." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1984-3. The World Bank, 1984. . "The Costs and Benefits of Foreign Borrowing: A Survey of Multiperiod Models." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1984- 5. The World Bank, 1984. Also, Journal of Development Studies (forthcoming). Kharas, H. J. "Public Foreign Borrowing in Thailand." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1984-4. The World Bank, 1983. _. "Bolivia: An Assessment of External Debt." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1984-39. The World Bank, 1984. and Shishido, H. "Credit Rationing in International Capital Markets: an Empirical Analysis." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1984-24. The World Bank, 1984. - 45 - . "Foreign Borrowing and Macroeconomic Adjustment to External Shocks." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1985-19. The World Bank, 1985. . "Financing Investment in Thailand: The Mix of Foreign and Domestic Savings." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1985- 21. The World Bank, 1985. . "The Welfare Impact of Terms of Trade Changes." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1985-28. The World Bank, 1985. . "Thailand: An Assessment of Alternative Foreign Borrowing Strategies." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1985-29. The World Bank, 1985. Export Instability and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa Ref. No. 673-18PC Part I of the first phase of this study would consist of a thorough review of the literature on export instability and its consequences for development from the perspective of the individual country. One basic criterion of evaluation would be the usefulness of this work in designing policies for dealing with export volatility. Part II would be a cross-country analysis in which export instability as defined in Part I is the principal independent variable. Some of the issues which will be studied here are: (1) the degree to which flows of external capital compensate for export- instability and the degree to which they are perverse; (2) the effect of export instability on investment, public and private; and (3) the relation between export concentration and instability. Part III would comprise the actual country studies, focusing on the issue of the appropriate domestic policies in confronting the effects of instability. Responsibility: Western Africa Regional Office -- Akbar Noman, in collaboration with Patrick Guillaumont, Universite de Clermont (France). The Timing and Sequencing of a Trade Liberalization Policy Ref. Nos. 672-97PC and 673-31 The nature of a desirable path -- the sequencing -- of trade policy reforms, specifically those economic measures which lead to a contraction of effective rates of protection is the focus of this study. Some of the issues to be addressed are: 1) the appropriate circumstances for the introduction of such a trade policy; 2) the number of stages involved in the process; 3) the attributes of stages, the optimal speed, intensity, length of time of the process; 4) the role of tariffs and of export promotion in the process; 5) treatments of different sectors of the economy; 6) the relationship of trade policy and other policy measures; and 7) the package of policy measures that will ensure the sustainability of trade reform. - 46 - The study covers episodes of trade liberalization in 18 countries, and will comprise both separate country studies and a cross-country synthesis. By pooling data, estimates, and findings from all countries, relationships between the success or failure of liberalization efforts and the attributes of economies, trade and other policies, and the sequencing of reforms are expected to be established. The countries selected, and the principal authors of the individual studies in parentheses, are: Argentina (Domingo Cavallo and Joaquin Cottani); Brazil (Donald Coes); Chile (Dominique Hachette and Sergio de la Cuadra); Colombia (Jorge Garcia Garcia, Jose Fernandez, and Mario Blejer); Greece (George Kottis); Indonesia (Mark Pitt); Israel (Nadav Halevi and Joseph Baruh); Republic of Korea (Kim Kwang Suk); Pakistan (Stephen Guisinger and Gerald Scully); Peru (Julio Nogues); Philippines (Geoffrey Shepherd and Florian Alburo); Portugal (Jorge de Macedo, Cristina Corado, and Manuel Porto); Singapore (Bee Yan Roberts); Spain (Guillermo de la Dehesa, Angel Torres, and Jose Juan Ruiz); Sri Lanka (Andrew G. Cuthbertson); Turkey (Tercan Baysan and Charles Blitzer); Uruguay (Edgardo Favaro and Pablo Spiller); and Yugoslavia (Ol Havrylyshyn). The collaborating institutions are: Argentina, Fundacion Mediterranea; Brazil, Fundacao Centro de Estudos do Comercio Exterior (FUNDEX); Chile, Instituto de Economia, Pontifica Universidad Catolica de Chile; Greece, Institute of Economic and Industrial Research (IEIR); Israel, Maurice Falk Institute; Pakistan, Pakistan Economic Development Institute (PEDI); Peru, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru; Philippines, Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS); Singapore, National University; Spain, Ministry of Commerce; Sri Lanka, Presidential Tariff Commission; and Yugoslavia, Institut Ekonomskih Nauka, Belgrade and Institut Ekonomskih Razis Kovanja, L1ubtjana. Responsibility: Country Policy Department -- Armeane M. Choksi, Michael Michaely (consultant), and Demetrios Papageorgiou are the managers of this project and jointly responsible for a volume synthesizing the findings of the country studies. Reports Michaely, Michael. "The Timing and Sequencing of a Trade Liberalization Policy." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper No. 1984-14. The World Bank, September 1983. Also in Armeane M. Choksi and D. Papageorgiou, eds. (forthcoming), Economic Liberalization in Developing Countries. Oxford, U.K.: Basil Blackwell, Ltd. . "The Timing and Sequencing of a Trade Liberalization Policy: An Analytical Framework for Country Studies." The World Bank: Country Policy Department, revised April 1984. Processed. . "Guidelines for Country Economists for the Review and Evaluation of Trade Policies." The World Bank, Country Policy Department, February 1985. Processed. - 47 - Conference on Debt and the Developing Countries Ref. No. 673-32 This seminar on international debt issues was intended as a review of the functioning of the international financial and banking systems and a forum to evaluate proposals to modify the mechanisms through which international capital moves to developing countries. The exchange of research findings also served as a brief to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund staff on the policy research of other, mainly academic, institutions, as a means to developing further the Bank's own research on debt-related issues. Selected economists, based in Brazil, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Switzerland, ard the United States, were commissioned to present eleven papers for discussion before more than 450 participants, including staff of the Bank and the IMF, international organizations, universities, commercial banks, and government ministries. The conference sessions were organized around four subject areas: management of national aconomies in situations where the level of foreign borrowing is significant, the critical factors and major lessons to be learned from the experiences of the Republic of Korea and of Mexico and their prospects for further borrowing and economic growth; a description of the international lending system and the implications of the debt crisis for the flow of capital to developing countries; and how the international system might better facilitate such capital flows to developing countries. The conference papers are expected to be published in early 1985 by the World Bank as part of its seminar series in a volume edited by JoIn T. Cuddington, formerly of Stanford University and currently with the World Bank, and Gordon W. Smith, chairman of the Economics Departmenc at William Marsh Rice (Rice) University. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- J. Michael Finger with the assistance of Gordon W. Smith, John T. Cuddington, and Paula Holmes (consultants). European Trade Policies and the South Ref. No. 673-37 As developing countries have become increasingly significant partners in world trade, there has been a parallel growth of their need for information on the nature and effects of the trade policies being implemented in other major trading countries and regions. This project, part of a more extensive Bank research and work program on the trade policies of the developed and developing countries, will focus on particular aspects of European trade policy and analyze their effects on developing countries. Co-sponsored by the Government of the Netherlands, the study will build on the research experience and institutional knowledge of a number of European scholars. Each study will develop quantitative information on an aspect of European trade policy, and will then utilize contemporary techniques to identify the effects of these - 48 - policies. The areas covered by the papers include the determinants of trade policies, protective barriers and their impact, administered protection in the European Community and the evolution and future of the world trading system. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- The project will be directed by J. Michael Finger with Loet Mennes, director of the Netherlands Economic Institute and professor at Erasmus University, Rotterdam (the Netherlands); and Jean Waelbroeck, professor at Brusels Free University (Belgium). The Steering Committee includes Jeurgen Donges, Deputy Director, Kiel Institute for World Economy; Enzo Grilli, Secretary General of the Ministry of Planning, Rome (Italy); Lal Jayawardena, Administrator, Sri Lanka Ministry of Trade, formerly Ambassador to the EC (Sri Lanka); P. Pekkacem, Deputy Director, Thai Planning Office (Thailand); Martin Wolf; Research Director of the Trade Policy Research Centre, London (England); other participants are P. Didier, Lawyer, member of the Brussels Bar (Belgium); M. Gerken, Researcher at the Kiel Institute for World Economy (Federal Rep. of Germany); C. Hamilton, Researcher at the Stockholm Institue for International Economics (Sweden); G. Lafay, Deputy Director CEPII, Paris (France); and P. Messerlin, Universite de Lille (France); A. Sarris, Deputy Director, KEPE, Adviser to Prime Minister Papandreou; Professor, Athens University (Greece); M. Tharakan, Director, Institute for Development; Professor, University of Antwerp (Belgium); and W. Tims, Director, Institute for Food Policy Research; Professor, Amsterdam Free University (the Netherlands). World Bank-UNCTAD Studies on Non-Tariff Barriers Ref. No. 673-40 The principal objectives of this study a s to provide an analysis of the extent and effects of non-tariff barriers in major world markets in order to assist developing countries in designing export strategies that minimize their impact and to encourage multilateral negotiations to liberalize such restrictions. The World Bank and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development staffs have arranged to work cooperatively in basic data collection on non-tariff barriers and a panel of economists and policy experts has been commissioned to prepare papers for workshop with the staffs of the World Bank and UNCTAD. The participants and the papers to be presented include Richard Snape, (Monash University) "Non-Tariff Distortions to International Trade: Categories and Concepts"; Andrzej Olechowski and Alexander Yeats, (UNCTAD Secretariat) "Analytical and Policy Needs Relating to Contemporary Protectionist Problems: A Status Report on the UNCTAD Inventory of Non-Tariff Measures"; Robert Stern and Alan Deardoff, (University of Michigan) "Estimates of the Magnitudes and Effects of NTBs: A Survey of Approaches"; William Carmichael and Staff, (Australian Industries Assistance Commission) "Automation Industries Assistance Commission's Experience Estimating the Magnitude and Effects of NTBs"; Avinash Dixit and Gene Grossman (Princeton University) "The Structure and Dynamics of Negotiated Protection"; Irving Kravis (University of Pennsylvania) "International Price Comparison to Measure - 49 - NTBs"; Vittorio Corbo (Pontificia Universidad Catolica De Chile) "Procedures to Estimate the Effects of NTBs of Particular Export Interest of Developing Countries." Responsibility: Development Research Department and Economic Analysis and Projections Department -- J. Michael Finger and L. Alan Winters, respectively. Capital Market Regulations: An Economic Analysis of Their Impact Ref. No. 673-41 Regulations in the financiaL market have created obstacles to the efficient allocation of funds in many countries, preventing banks from expanding their assets, increasing market segmentation, and producing new types of institutional liabilities with money-like characteristics and black markets. A study of the impact of regulations on capital markets is important not only because of their effects on resource allocation and the efficiency of financial intermediation, but also because of the changes they have promoted in the money market and their effects on monetary control. The analytical framework of this study will first examine how the financi.l market operates by defining the assets and liabilities of all economic agents in the market, such as households, enterprises, government, and banks. In this manner, the Brazilian capital market will be studied in terms of the financial instruments used by society to match lenders with borrowers. One approach to studying capital market regulation is to specify the financial asset market by identifying the relevant distortions and by outlining each market's supply and demand functions. An alternative approach would consider the portfolio adjustments of the financial agents to the underlying regulations as well as the costs of departures from a nondistorted system. The primary purpose of the study is to test the viability of the alternative methodology, using Brazil as a case study. The study will illustrate how capital market distortions have come about in Brazil, and the Brazilian institutional structure will form the back- drop to the analysis. The legal procedures for imposing regulations and the roles of each institution involved in this process are described in order to evaluate the effects of regulations in relation to their original intent. Responsibility: Economics and Research Staff -- Sarath Rajapatirana. The chief researcher is Jose L. Carvatho of the Instituto Brasileiro de Pesquisas Sociais (Brazil). Macroeconomic Study of Aid and Development Ref. No. 673-49 The purpose of this project is to examine critically the relationship - 50 - between various components of aid (grants, loans, technical assistance), and other capital flows (private and public) on the one hand, and investment and growth in developing countries on the other hand. These relationships will be explored by postulating a dynamic model of investment, savings, and growth and by testing various hypotheses regarding the macro effects of aid. The empirical work will be based on a cross-section covering about 70 developing countries of a time-series (annual data) from the early 1960s to 1982. The data base will rely in part on the OECD aid statistics but will draw mainly on the Bank's world data files. The sample is expected to include countries in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America which have a population over one million, are not capital surplus oil exporters, and have sufficiently long time-series for most of the desired data. In relation to past multicountry econometric studies, this project will have several new and distinctive aspects. First, distinctions will be drawn among various components of a country's external resource inflows, from grants and concessional loans with primarily development purposes to total Long-term capital inflows of all kinds. These components can be expected to differ in their effects on investment and growth. Most earlier studies repre- sented aid by the net external resource balance in the national accounts, which is considerably more heterogenous in content. Second, aid and external capital inflows will be considered as one of several factors which jointly influence a country's development progress in the context of a macro framework for growth. Third, longer time-series for more variables in more countries are available today than previously. This analysis, using pooled data for groups of countries, can thus give greater weight to changes in each country over time, and less weight to often treacherous cross-country comparisons. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- Victor Lavy. Trade Policy, Technological Transfer and Quality Control Ref. No. 673-59 Some developing countries apply a public policy that seeks to enforce standards of quality for internationally traded commodities and services. The objective of this research is to provide an exposition and an examination of the rationales that have been developed to support minimum-quality standard policies, and an analytical treatment of those policies that will seek to uncover their predictive consequences for economic efficiency, resource al'ocation, and income and wealth distribution. The study seeks to produce two major reports: 1) a comprehensive, descriptive catalogue of the policies of the developing countries that seek, or have sought, to enforce standards of quality; and 2) the intensive study of the application of such policies in five or six countries. The analysis will incLude treatment of the tactics and strategy of adjustment to minimum-quality constraints and the tactics and strategy of - 51 - avoidance and evasion of the constraints, including effects on the incidence of smuggling. The analytical treatment will cover the effects of the policies on the structure of industrial organization, an the degree of competition in markets, and on the size and composition of firms engaged in productive ventures. An attempt will be made to estimate the magnitudes of economic costs or gains produced by the policies under study. The study will involve travel to the selected five or six countries that have administered minimum-quality standard policies. Responsibility: Country Policy Department -- Demetrios Papageorgiou. Professor S. Rottenberg of the University of Massachusetts will be the princi- pal investigator and Professor Bruce Yandle of Clemson University will be the other researcher. State Intervention in the Promotion of the Traded Goods Sector: Japan Ref. No. 673-66 The Japanese economy has been the premier performer among industri- alized economies throughout much of the post-war period. While many facets of this experience have inspired close examination, the industrial and trade policies have probably attracted the most attention from foreign observers. This research will examine the implementation of a fairly wide range of trade and domestic policy instruments over time. Evidence of recent years suggests the Japanese government gives less formal assistance to its promising industries than do most other governments, but it is important to extend this evidence back to the 1950s and 1960s when it was thought to be quantitatively more significant, in order to evaluate several contentions on the causal links between trade and industrial policy and economic development. The analysis will compile information on the differential use by of policy instruments by sector. Simulations with a multisectoral econometric model incorporating the policy instrument data will be used to evaluate policy effectiveness. In addition, sectoral allocations within Japan can be compared to other post-war economic patterns to compare the evolving trade and indus- trial structures using Hecksher-Ohlin-type evidence. This will permit com- parison of Japan's experience to other, semi-industrialized economies, normalizing for capital stock, labor force, geographic position, and material resource endowments. Responsibility: Country Policy Department -- Bruce Fitzgerald will supervise the research, to be undertaken by Gary Saxonhouse (consultant), University of Michigan and Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences. - 52 - Performance Indicators and Policy Instruments in the Context of Medium-Term Programs for Debt-Restructuring Ref. No. 673-70 The main objective of this project is to identify the relationship between monitorable policy instruments, growth and creditworthiness to provide a useful element in the design of medium-term adjustment programs. The study focuses on the identification of major correlates of growth and their relation to policy instruments such as trade policy, domestic financial policy, and government expenditure and tax policy. Rather than focusing on individual countries, the study seeks to establish empirically the relationship between economic growth and major policy instruments for two cross-sectional samples of thirty-eight countries, including a subsample of twenty-three developing countries; one for the 1972- 77 period and the other, the 1977-82 period. The method intends to yield empirical results that have applicability to a wider range of developing countries and are more amenable to international comparisons. Based upon empirically robust estimates, the study identifies a small, medium-term simultaneous equation model embodying the key relationships between policy and performance indicators. This permits the project to estimate the impacts of budgetary, credit and trade policies on domestic and external equilibrium, and to explore the issue of tradeoff between adjustment and growth over the medium term. Responsibility: Economic Projections Department -- R. K. Chopra and E. C. Hwa. 3. Agriculture and Rural Development Agricultural Innovation and Rural Development Ref. No. 671-44C Change in agricultural technology is widely accepted as fundamental to any strategy for meaningful economic development, and all World Bank projects in the agriculture sector contain or relate to some form of technology change. The aim of this study was to construct the basic framework for a wider analysis of technological change, using concepts embodied in the "systems approach." The study examined a number of past technology change projects to identify their primary and secondary effects and their relation to the technology package, its implementation, and results. The final synthesis of these findings should make it possible to structure an outline model that portrays technological change in agriculture as a process of technology generation, selection, adaptation, adoption, and diffusion, interacting with nontechnical factors to yield a variety of possible adjustment paths. It is hoped that this project will provide a cohesive background for - 53 - the identification of areas for empirical study, and offer a more appropriate analytical framework for (1) designing apprturiate farm technology packages; (2) learning to manage the transfer of technologies; and (3) identifying guidelines for the establishment of a policy for the generation and management of technological change as a continuing process. Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Department - Graham F. Donaldson, in collaboration with John P. McInerney of the University of Manchester (United Kingdom). Distribution of Income through the Extended Family System Ref. No. 671-57C In the World Bank's strategy to assist the development of the Sahel, irrigation plays an increasingly important role as a means of expanding useful employment and reducing the risk of crop failures and famine. In this endeavor, the Bank lacks information about three important aspects of introducing modern irrigation projects within the context of the traditional African extended family system: 1. To whom do the incremental revenues created by irrigation projects accrue? 2. How does irrigation fit into or upset the traditional pattern of task allocation among family members? 3. To what extent are changes in traditional societies explained by (a) the increasing use of cash, (b) the sale of farm crops to an outside market, or (c) the need to adapt to orders from outside about methods of cultivating irrigated crops? The results expected from the study will have operational significance for the desian of irrigation projects in Senegal, Mauritania, and possibly Mali, and may also be relevant for irrigation projects in other river basins in the Sahel with sociological conditions and problems similar to those in the Senegal Valley. The bulk of the field work and part of the data preparation and analysis were carried out by the Societe Nationale des Etudes de Developpement (SONED), a consultant firm established by the Senegalese Planning Ministry. In addition, a sociological and economic study group within the Societe d'Amenagement et d'Exploitation des Terres du Delta (the public company in charge of developing irrigation along the Senegalese side of the valley) closely follows the study and shares in the experience gained by its implementation. Responsibility: Europe, Middle East, and North Africa Country Programs Department II and Western Africa Projects Department -- Heinz B. Bachmann and Jan Weijenberg, respectively. The bulk of the research was undertaken by Professor John Mogey of Boston University, in collaboration with SONED and with Abdel Majid SLama of the Centre National des Etudes Agricoles, Tunis, as agricultural economist. - 54 - Evaluation of Food Distribution Schemes Ref. No. 671-80C Malnutrition is a widespread and serious problem in developing countries and, in many of them, food distribution and intervention schemes will continue to be necessary. Yet, no satisfactory method exists for (1) estimating the required scale of food distribution systems; (2) projecting their costs and benefits under alternative development strategies; and (3) evaluating the costs and benefits of basic needs programs in rural development projects. The primary objective of this research project is to study the operational aspects of food distribution systems and explore alternative approaches to evaluating their effectiveness. Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Department -- Graham Donaldson, in collaboration with Odin K. Knudsen, South Asia Projects Department and Gurushri Swamy, Economic Analysis and Projections Department. Reports Harbert, Lloyd, and Scandizzo, Pasquale L. "Food Distribution and Nutrition Intervention: The Case of ChiLe." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 512, May 1982. Knudsen, Odin K. "Nutrition and Food Needs in South Asia: A Review of Research on Magnitudes, Policy and Prospects." Working Paper presented at IFT Annual Meeting, Atlanta, Georgia, June 1981. In Food Technology (September 1981):105-109. ___ . "Economics of Supplemental Feeding of Malnourished Children: A Case of Leakages, Benefits and Costs." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 451, April 1981. Knudsen, Odin K., and Scandizzo, Pasquale L. "Price Policy and Basic Needs: Implications and Estimates." The World Bank: Agricultural Research and Economic Policy Division Working Paper No. 41, April 1981. _. "The Demand for Calories in Developing Countries." The World Bank: Agricultural Research and Economic Policy Division Working Paper No. 26, October 1980. Scandizzo, Pasquale L., and Graves, J. "The Alleviation of Malnutrition: Impact and Cost Effectiveness of Official Programs." The World Bank: Agricultural Research and Economic Policy Division Working Paper No. 19, March 1979. Scandizzo, Pasquale L., and Knudsen, Odin K. "The Evaluation of the Benefits of Basic Needs Policies." In American Journal of Agricultural Economics 62 (February 1980):46-57. Also World Bank Reprint Series: Number 138. Scandizzo, Pasquale L., and Swamy, Curushri. "Benefits and Costs of Food Distribution Policies: The India Case." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 509, 1982. Swamy, Curushri. "Public Food Distribution in India." The World Bank: Agricultural Research and Economic Policy Division Working Paper No. 25, July 1979. - 55 - India: Impact of Agricultural Development on Employment and Poverty (Phase II) Ref. No. 671-89C The objective of Phase II of this research (Phase I, Ref. No. 671-62, has now been completed) is to produce a better understanding of some of the policy and investment alternatives for alleviating poverty in rural India by studying their effects in a number of specific institutional, infrastructural, and agroclimatic contexts. In particular, policies such as investment in irrigation works (public and private), increased availability of credit through publ:c lending institutions, and expansion of nonfarm employment opportunities will be the focal points of the research. To capture their variations, the research will concentrate on three areas: Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, and Bihar. Punjab, at one extreme, represents a dynamic agriculture, based on the availability of irrigation (private and public), increasing mechanization, and "capitalistic" modes of production. Certain areas of Bihar represent almost a polar opposite - semifeudal, stagnant agriculture. Andhra Pradesh falls between the two. Phase I set out a tentative methodology and identified the data requirements. As the preexisting datawere inadequate to test the methodology, primary data coLlection is one of the major tasks of Phase II. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- Clive L. C. Bell and Chalongphob Sussangkarn, with the assistance of T.N. Srinivasan (consultant) and in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, and the Agro-Economic Research Center, Waltair. Reports Bell, Clive L. G., and Braverman, A. "On the Non-Existence of "Marshallian" Sharecropping Contracts." Indian Economic Review, vol. XV, no. 3 (July- September 1980). Bell, Clive L. G., and Zusman, P. "Towards a General Bargaining Theory of Equilibrium Sets of Contracts -- The Case of Agricultural Rental Contracts." Paper presented at the World Congress of the Econometric Society, Aix-en-Provence, France, August-September 1980. Braverman, A., and Guasch, J. L. "Capital Requirements, Screening and Interlinked Sharecropping and Credit Contracts." Journal of Development Economics (forthcoming). Braverman, A., and Srinivasan, T. N. "Agrarian Reforms in Developing Economies Characterized by Interlinked Credit and Tenancy Markets." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 433, October 1980. Also in H. Binswanger and M. Rosenzweig (eds.), Rural Labor Markets in Asia: Contractual Arrangements, Employment and Wages (forthcoming). . "Credit and SIarecropping in Agrarian Societies." Journal of Development Economics 9:3 (December 1981):289-312. Braverman, A., and Stiglitz, J. E. "Sharecropping and the Interlinking of Agrarian Markets." American Economic Review 72 (4) (September 1982):695- 715. - 56 - Mitra, P. K. "A Theory of Interlinked Rural Transactions." Journal of Public Economics, vol. 20 (March 1983). The Construction of Econometric Models for the Supply of Perennials: A Case Study of Natural Rubber and Tea in Sri Lanka Ref. No. 672-02C The "tree crop problem", i.e., the development of well-specified structural econometric models for the supply of perennial crops, has long defied a satisfactory solution. One of the important obstacles to a thorough examination of the tree-crop problem has been the lack of systematic data on the age structure and clonal composition of existing stands. The objective of this project is to explore the feasibility of constructing vintage models of perennial supply via a case study of the rubber and tea sectors in Sri Lanka. For both sectors, extensive published macro time-series data, covering upwards of forty years, exist. Collaboration with the Government of Sri Lanka has been coordinated by the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of CeyLon. Extraction of data from historical records at each of the estates has been organized by the two state corporations -- the Sri Lanka State Plantations Corporation and the Janatha Estates Development Board. tiesponsibility: Development Research Department - Michael J. Hartley, in coliaboration with R. Kyle Peters, Jr., and Eric V. Swanson (researchers). Professor Marc Nerlove, Northwestern University, and Professor Dan Etherington, Australian National University, are consultants. Food Policy Analysis for Practitioners Ref. No. 672-18C The objective of this project was to develop a handbook which examines, reconciles, and incorporates production and consumption issues in the proress of formulating food policies in developing countries. The work plan for the project consisted of the following steps: (1) a review of the literature on food and nutrition planning; %2) a review of a few recent studies that are particularly relevant for food planning; (3) a new synthesis of analytical work in other related agricultural fields, putting it into an operational context; (4) an analysis of the conceptual framework of food policies; and (5) a critical appraisal of practical approaches to preparing strategies for food development. Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Department -- Graham F. Donaldson, in collaboration with Professors Walter Falcon and Scott Pearson of the Stanford Food Research Institute and Professor C. Peter Timmer of Harvard University. - 57 - Reports Timmer, C. P.; Falcon, W.; and Pearson, S. Food Policy Analysis. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press (forthcoming, 1983). The Impact of Agricultural Extension: A Case Study of the Training and Visit Method in Haryana, India Ref. No. 672-29C This two-year case study of the agricultural extension system in the State of Haryana, India, which was reorganized as a T&V system in 1979, will evaluate, in quantitative terms and for different classes of farmers 1) the effects of the extension system and other variables on farmers' adoption of better agricultural practices, and 2) the effects of these changes in behavior on the use of material inputs (such as fertilizer and seeds), cropping patterns, and yields. The results will increase the understanding of how farmers adopt new technologies and the role that extension can play in increasing farm produc- tivity. The study will also help to improve the techniques used for monitoring and evaluating agricultural extension projects. Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Department and South Asia Programs Department -- Gershon Feder and Roger H. Slade, respectively, in collaboration with Haryana Agricultural University, Hissar. Reports Feder, G. "Adoption of Interrelated Agricultural Innovations: Complementarity and the Impacts of Risk, Scale and Credit." American Journal of Agricultural Economics (February 1982). Feder, G.; Just, R.; and Zilbermann, D. "Adoption of Agricultural Innovations in Developing Countries: A Survey." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 542, 1982. Economic Development and Cultural Change (forthcoming). Feder, G., and O'Mara, G. T. "On Information and Innovation Diffusion: A Bayesian Approach." American Journal of Agricultural Economics (February 1982). Feder, G., and Slade, R. H. "The Acquisition of Information and the Adoption of New Technology." American Journal of Agricultural Economics (August 1984). . "Contact Farmer Selection and Extension Visits: The Training and Visit Extension System in Haryana, India." q!arterLy Journal of International Agriculture (January/March 1984). . "Experiences with the Monitoring and Evaluation of Training and Visit Extension in India." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 595, 1983. . "Some Aspects of the Training and Visit System of Agricultural Extension in India: A Comparative Analyni-." *,;-,r1d R.i!, aff Workin) Paper (forthcoming 1984). . "The Monitoring and Evaluation of Training and Visit Extensioa in India: A Manual of Instruction." Mimeo. The World Bank: Development Research Department, August 1981. - 58 - Feder, G., Slade, R. H., and A. Sundaram. "Analyses of Supply, Demand and Productivity Effects of Agricultural Extension." Working Paper in Agricultural Development No. 20. The World Bank: Agriculture and Rural Development Department, August 1984. Production and Distributional Implications of Dairy Development Projects: Effects on Incomes, Consumption and Nutrition of the Poor Ref. No. 672-30 This study of selected dairy development projects in India looks at their actual effects an production and labor allocation; income distribution; and human nutrition. It will: 1. estimate the direct economic benefits produced by the projects. 2. estimate how project benefits are being distributed, paying particular attention to the projects' impact on the incomes of the poor. 3. estimate how the projects are affecting food consumption (including food distri..: 2n within a family) and nutrition among the poor and population groups that are deficient in calories and --srotein. 4. identify and quantify the key relationships and parameters determining the effects of a project on production, food consumption, ond nutrition. 5. develop a system for evaluating the economic and nutritional effects of dairy development projects. Responsibility: South Asia Projects Department -- Odin K. Knudsen and Roger H. SLade, in collaboration with Per Pinstrup Andersen of the International Food Policy Research Institute. In India, the Center for Rural Studies, Bangalore, the monitoring and evaluation units of the Karnataka Dairy Development Corporation and :he Madhya Pradesh Dairy Development Corporation, and the Institute of Rural Management, Anand, will be the main collaborating institutions. Market and Agricultural Policy Determinants of Rural Incomes Ref. No. 672-39C The objective of this project is to construct aggregative models of the agriculture sectors in India and the Philippines that will then be used to analyze the effects of agricultural development policies and projects, trends in population and the Labor force, and technical change, on the incomes of major socioeconomic groups. The groups are differentiated by (1) ownership of assets and source of income (2) supply behavior of factors of production (e.g., labor) (3) expenditure patterns, and (4) location of residence. - 59 - Although the models are designed to handle a large set of issues related to agriculture, they are intended primarily to examine how the incomes of poor laborers and residents of lagging regions can be improved by policies and programs for the rural sector. Such programs include rural works, investments in irrigation, agricultural mechanization, input subsidies, agricultural research, and changes in the international trade regime governing agricultural commodities and inputs. Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Department -- Hans Binswanger, in collaboration with Jaime Quizon and Devendra Gupta of the Institute of Economic Growth, New Delhi (consultants). Reports Bapna, Shanti; Binswanger, Hans; and Quizon, Jaime. "Systems of Output Supply and Factor Demand Equations for Semi-Arid Tropical India." Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics (forthcoming). Binswanger, Hans; Quizon, Jaime; and Swamy, Gurushri. "The Demand for Food and Foodgrain Quality in India." Agriculture Research Unit Discussion Paper No. 6. The World Bank: Agriculture and Rural Development Department, November 1982. Quizon, Jaime, and Binswanger, Hans. "Factor Gains and Losses in the Indian Semi-Arid Tropics: A Didactic Approach to Modeling the Agriculture Sector." Agriculture Research Unit Discussion Paper No. 9. The World Bank: Agriculture and Rural Development Department, May 1984 (revised). "Income Distribution in Agriculture: A Unified Approach." American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 65, no. 3 (August 1983). Quizon, Jaime; Binswanger, Hans; and Gupta, Devendra. "The Distribution of Agricultural Incores in India's Northern Wheat Region." Agriculture Research Unit Discussion Paper No. 10. The World Bank: Agriculture and Rural Development Department, May 1984 (revised). Swamy, Gurushri, and Binswanger, Hans. "Flexible Consumer Demand Systems and Linear Estimations: Food in India." American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 65, no. 4 (November 1983). Canal Command Model for Project Design and System Operation in the Indus Basin Ref. No. 672-50AC This project is an application of the "Project Programming and Design Investment: Indus Basin" (Ref. No. 671-45). Its objectives are (1) to assist in the design and evaluation of the planned "Command Water Management (CWM)" project and (2) to help develop the analytical capability of the collaborating institution, the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) of Pakistan, for effective system management and planning. The final output of the application consists of: 1. Inputs into the CWM project, particularly planning the set of components within subprojects and the evaluation of subprojects. - 60 - 2. A canal command model that can be used by WAPDA for optimal management of the system and purposes of investment appraisal. 3. An enhanced modeling capability of WAPDA. 4. A slender monograph on the application of modeling techriques to the design and appraisal of irrigation projects at the canal command level. This will be in the nature of a manual addressed to the practitioner. Responsibility: Economics and Research Staff, Agriculture and Rural Development Department, and Development Research Department -- John H. Duloy, Gerald T. O'Mara, and Alexander Meeraus, respectively, in collaboration with Anthony Brooke (consultant). The major collaborating institution is the Water and Power Development Authority of Pakistan, which provided two staff members who were involved in building and applying the canal command model under the supervision of staff of the Development Research Department. Conditions for Sustained Farm Mechanization Ref. No. 672-67C In most developing countries where farm mechanization has been introduced, there have been problems that impede potential benefits from being realized. This study addresses the question of how farm mechanization can be sustained in both the short-term and the long-term. It intends to identify and analyze the conditions that must be satisfied in the economic, financial, technical, social, institutional, and policy framework, if sustained mechanization is to be achieved. An analytical model of the socio-technical systems framework within which mechanized farming takes place has been developed and is being refined by means of a case study in Thailand. Of particular interest will be the examination of appropriate roles for the public sector and the private sector, as well as for external agencies, such as the World Bank, in providing technical and financial assistance. Responsibility: kgriculture and Rural Development Department -- Graeme Donovan and Graham F. Donaldson. The principal investigator is Peter Delp (consultant). A field survey has been undertaken by the Center for Applied Economics Research, Kasetsart University, Thailand, and the project has the support of the National Economic and Social Development Board in Thailand. - 61 - A Manual of Agriculture Sector Programming Models Ref. No. 672-8OAC The objective of this project is to facilita-e and improve the application of methodologies for evaluating policy options for the sector by developing a manual for the construction and use of agricultural sector models. The manual would emphasize practical approaches, and it would illustrate how to set up models for solutions which have policy relevance. While the manual will address a large number of specific technical points, the emphasis throughout will be placed on readability and ease of use. Responsibility: Agricultural and Rural Development Department and Development Research Department -- Gerald O'Mara and Alexander Meeraus, respectively, in collaboration with Gary Kutther, consultant. Agricultural Household Models: Extensions and Policy Implications Ref. No. 672-82C Since 1975, researchers at the Food Research Institute of Stanford University and the World Bank have been developing models of agricultural households that combine producer and consumer behavior. Subsequently, various researchers have developed and applied extensions of the basic model. The intention of this project is to produce a monograph that distills the policy implications of this work and, on the basis of a comparative analyis of existing models, identifies areas for further extension and refinement. Responsibility: Eastern Africa Regional Office and Country Policy Department -- Inderjit Singh and Lyn Squire, respectively, in collaboration with John Strauss, University of Virginia (consultant). Direct and Indirect Effects of Irrigation: Matar Taluka, Gujarat, India Ref. Nos. 672-84C and 672-51PC A large proportion of the World Bank's lending in irrigation has been allocated to the South Asia region, particularly to India, the focus of this research. The project's main thrust is to study and quantify the impact of irrigation investments in the development of the Matar Taluka area in the State of Gujarat. The main objectives of the research project are: (1) to quantify the direct and indirect benefits from irrigation, providing a framework and the empirical basis with which to assess the importance of water resource development; and (2) to enhance institution-building through the development of a collaborative research relationship with the Gujarat Institute of Area Planning. - 62 - Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Department and South Asia Projects Department -- Alfredo Sfeir-Younis and Per Ljung and Vinh Le-Si (consultant), respectively, in collaboration with the Gujarat Institute of Area Planning. Managing Agricultural Development in Africa: A Comparative Analysis of Six Countries Ref. No. 673-04 The objective of this study is to produce a detailed review of the experience of governments and donor agencies in managing and supporting agricultural development in Africa during the post-independence period. To the extent that evidence from six countries (Tanzania, Cameroon, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, and Senegal) will allow, the analysis will investigate the nature of, the reasons for, and the consequences of the major policy and institutional choices made in agriculture over the 1970 to 1984 period in an attempt to identify the type of changes needed to induce self-sustained agricultural growth. The objective is to stimulate a dialugue among scholars, donors, and African policymakers on how governments, acting with the support of donors in the area of agricultural management, can improve agricultural performance and prospects. Five major areas have been selected for detailed comparative analysis and will the provide basic inputs into the overall assessment. These topics are: (i) agricultural research and technology; (ii) the politics of agricultural policy; (iii) donor assistanre; (iv) the patterns of exchange rate, trade, and government expenditure policies affecting agriculture; and (v) agricultural marketing and pricing. In addition, there will be an examination of rural factor markets and regional patterns of production in each country. It is expected that a number of staff working papers will be produced on these topics, examining the relationship of each of these issues to past agricultural policy and performance, and implications of future policy changes. While each of these factors is crucial to an explanation of agricultural performance, none is sufficient by itself to explain overall performance. The synthesis study will attempt to explore the interaction of these variables and their relationship to performance in previous periods, and will draw conclusions about the types of policies that can induce agricultural growth and the necessary conditions for their implementation, including the implications for donor assistance. Responsibility: Development Research Department and Eastern Africa Projects Department -- Uma Lele, Yaw Ansu, Chandra Ranade, Wilfred Candler and Ellen Hanak (consultant). A team of consultants and Bank staff will be involved in the preparation of individual studies. The project will involve close collaboration with the Bank's operational staff and with African government officials. - 63 - Agricultural Pricing Policy in Senegal Ref. No. 673-08A This research project extends to Senegal in Western Africa the application of a previously developed model that explored alternative agricultural pricing policies in the Republic of Korea. The application of the model has potentially important implications for policymakers regarding 1) 5 rategies for improving food self-sufficiency versus export-oriented agricultural development; 2) parastatal efficiency and the role of private traders; 3) the level of incentives to farmers and the budgetary cost of producer price stabilization policies; 4) regional income distribution and the role of agriculture as a source of foreign exchange. The assessment of the impact of different agricultural pricing policies on all these variables is critical in generating policy recommendations. For Senegal, the model will be modified to handle a larger number of agricultural commodities than in the Korean case and to take account of the effects of weather on the production of groundnuts and millet, Senegal's major crops. Responsibility: Country Policy Department -- Avishay Braverman and Jeffrey Hammer, in conjunction with Christopher J. Redfern and Joseph Baah- Dwomoh of the Western Africa Country Programs Department II and Western Africa Projects Department, respectively. Reports Braverman, A.; Hammer, J.; and Levinson, J. "Balance of Payments, Government Deficit Reduction, and Agricultural Pricing in Senegal." Country Policy Department Discussion Paper. The World Bank, September 1983. Hammer, J. "Subsistence First: Farm Allocation Decisions in Senegal." Processed. The World Bank: Country Policy Department, March 1983. Workshop on the Effects of Externalities on the Efficiency of Irrigated Agriculture in Developing Countries Ref. No. 673-09C Research on irrigation has focused attention on the significant social costs incurred when the development of irrigation neglects physical interdependencies. The core of the problem is that private agents individually do not take into account the physical externality that dependence on a common resource imposes on them collectively when allocating the resources at their disposal. In addition, decisions by government policymakers all too often neglect environmental effects which do not seem to require immediate attention. The ultimate effect is a sharp increase in real and perceived costs of production at some future date. The strategy of this workshop was to bring the conceptualizing theorists together with engineers and administrators with operating experience in irrigation systems to reexamine the problem and find solutions that can be implemented. The workshop was held at the World Bank between May 11 and 13, 1983, with 20 invited guests and a number of interested Bank staff participating. A conference volume is expected to be available in about one year. - 64 - Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Department - Gerald T. O'Mara. Supply Response of Aggregate Crops Output Ref. No. 673-15C The size of the long run response of aggregate agricultural supply to a large and permanent change in the agricultural price regime in developing countries is a matter of significant interest for Bank policy analysis. This research project attempted to answer this question definitively by the use of a large cross-section sample of countries, including countries with artificially low and artificially high agricultural price regimes. The response in aggregate output to changes in other variables, such as research, extension, irrigation use, population density, literacy rates, and road density, was also measured. The major findings of the study are: (i) the aggregate supply response to output price changes is highly inelastic (in the range of 0 to 0.3); (ii) the input-demand elasticities are also inelastic, but are larger than the output supply elasticities; and (iii) most interesting of the results for the other variables are the strong impact of population density variables and the lack of impact of research and extension expenditures on agricultural output. The development of an improved aggregate supply specification will be pursued as the next stage of the project. Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Department - Hans P. Binswanger, and Economic Analysis and Projections Department -- Ronald C. Duncan and Maw-Cheng Yang, in collaboration with Yair Mundlak (consultant) of Hebrew University (Israel). Agricultural Mechanization in Africa: Review and Prospects Ref. No. 673-16C This project seeks to identify persistent forces that govern the profitability of mechanized investments and that remain relevant when shorter- run impediments, such as sociocultural or institutional factors, could be overcome. The review is intended to assist World Bank project departments in clarifying, on a region-by-region basis, the factors that have limited mechanization and whether these factors continue to be relevant or are about to be overcome. The study will examine the evolution and extent of mechaniztion in twenty to thirty different areas of sub-Saharan Africa. The geographical areas selected for analysis include regions where animal traction has long been established, such as Botswana and Ethiopia; where animal traction spread shortly after World War II, such as the areas of groundnut cultivation in Senegal or of cotton cultivation in Mali; and regions where it - 65 - has spread in the past ten years, such as southwestern Upper Volta and central Ivory Coast. A similar comparative approach will be used in the case of tractors, with reference to their introduction in selected areas of northern Ivory Coast, Kenya, and Sudan. Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Department -- Hans P. Binswanger, with the assistance of Prabhu L. Pingali (consultant), and Eastern Africa Regional Office -- Inderjit J. Singh, in collaboration with Ives Bigot, Institut de Recherches Agronomiques Tro-icales et des Cultures Vivrieres (IRAT), Paris (France), and Surender Virmani and N. S. Jodha, International Crops Research Center for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Hyderabad (India). Reports Pingali, Prabhu, and Binswanger, Hans. "Population Density and Agricultural Intensification: A Study of the Evolution of Technologies in Tropical Agriculture." Agriculture and Rural Development Research Unit Discussion Paper No. 11. The World Bank: Agriculture and Rural Development Department. Sociological Aspects of Dairy Cooperative Develapment Projects (Small Study) Ref. No. 673-27 As a complement to an earlier World Bank study of the effects of selected dairy development projects in India on the income, consumption, and nutrition of villagers, this small study will examine the su iopolitical interaction between the dairy cooperative and the village. - It aims at assessing, in a preliminary way, the effects of village structure on the organization, operation, and performance of the cooperative, and conversely, the impact of the cooperative on village society. Relevant variables to be included in the study's typology of villages, according to their level of development and social structure, are landholding arrangements, predominant castes, power groupings, communal activities, and an index of wellbeing, based on the availability of common social goods, such as schooLing and medical care. The major objective of the study is to shed light on the widely-debated issue of the extent to which the social and political structure of the village affects the cooperative society and interactively is affected by the dairy cooperative. Responsibility: South Asia Projects Department and Development Research Department -- Roger Slade and Alan GeLb, respectively. 1/ See "Production and Distributional Implications of Dairy Development Projects: Effects on Incomes, Consumption, and Nutrition of the Poor" (Ref. No. 672-30) in Abstracts of Current Studies 1983: The World Bank Research ProgLam (Washington, D.C.:, The World Bank, 1983), pp. 107-109. - 66 - Land Title Security and Farm Productivity: A Case Study in Thailand Ref. No. 673-33 Insecure ownership of land is a condition faced by countless farmers in developing countries. Standard economic theory suggests that ownership insecurity will negatively affect farmers' incentives to invest and their ability to obtain credit, especially from formal credit institutions, resulting in reduced farm productivity. The main objective of this research project is to assess quantitatively the effect of increased ownership security on farm productivity, using Thailand as a case study. Cross-sectionaL data will be collected from 600 farmers in three agroclimatic environments in the country and with different ownership status, allowing the assessment of the differential effects of title insecurity in various environments. In order to assess rigorously the impact of increased levels of ownership security on productivity, several aspects of the issue will be examined empirically, among them: a) the identification of factors which make some farmers more likely to undertake the (monetary and non- monetary) cost of title acquisition in circumstances where the title-granting administration is inadequate; b) the relationship between farm investment and ownership security; c) the role of secure titles in input use; d) the effect of title insecurity on demand for supply of short and long-term credit; and e) the effects of title insecurity on land market activities and land prices. Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Department -- Gershon Feder and Professors Tongroj Onchan, Chira Hongladarom, Yongyuth Chalamwong, James Roumasset, and Daniel McFadden (consultants). Agricultural Investment, Infrastructure, and Rural Financial Markets Ref. No. 673-35 Investment processes are of fundamental importance for agricultural development, an importance which can only increase as population densities in developing countries increase. The present proposal is aimed at furthering our understanding of the determinants and consequences of private and public investments in agriculture, and of the development and performance of formal rural financial institutions. An objective of the project is a quantitative study of the relationship of private investments to agroclimatic characteristics of different regions, to public infrastructure and irrigation, to prices, to rural credit institutions, and to individual characteristics (such as farm experience, education, and ownership of assets). Two unusual longitudinal data sets from India have become available recently: a) The ALL-India Debt and Investment Survey of the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) -- a national probability sample of over 3,000 households, interviewed over three years from 1969 to 1972 and again in 1981; and b) a nine-year comprehensive data set on 240 households in the - 67 - semi-arid tropics of India, compiled by the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). The panel nature of both data sets -- the wide geograph-.cal coverage of the NCAER data set, and the availability of almost a decade of observations in the ICRISAT data set -- offers a unique scope both for descriptive studies of investment processes, as well as for advanced econometric analysis of complex issues of causality and interdependence. Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Department -- Bans Binsvanger and Brian Argyle, in collaboration with Mark Rosenzweig and Cuillermina Jasso of the University of Minnesota, Prem Vashishtha of the NCAER and the staff of the Economics Program of ICRISAT. Capital Accumulation and Formal and Informal Credit Markets in West Africa Ref. No. 673-36 This project, to be conducted in Western Africa, is a companion in terms of focus and methodology to the above project on "Agricultural Investment, Infrastructure and Rural Financial Markets" (Ref. No. 673-35) in India. It is aimed at understanding the processes, functions, and forms of capital accumulation, savings, and informal capital markets in the Sahelian and Sudano-Sahelian zone of Burkina Faso and Niger. Improved understanding should lead to insights, policies, and guidelines on how to improve rural financial intermediation and savings mobilization in these agroclimatically risky areas. The project's data base will be about 200 households in the village- level studies of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), which have been continuously followed since 1981. Additional data on credit, savings, livestock holdings, and retrospective data on capital accumulation will be gathered in 1984 and 1985. The descriptive and econometric analysis will be similar to that of the project on rural financial intermediation in India (see Ref. No. 673-35 above). Field work in Burkina Faso is in progress. Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Department -- Hans P. Binswanger, in collaboration with Carry N. Christensen (consultant), and Peter Matlon and Helga Vierich of the ICRISAT staff in Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso). Reports Binswanger, Hans P., and McIntire, John. "Behavioral and Material Determinants of Production Relations in Land Abundant Tropical Agriculture." Agricultural Research Unit Discussion Paper No. 17. The World Bank: Agriculture and Rural Development Department, January 1984. - 68 - Tree Crop Development and Support Programs: Project Design and Cost Recovery Ref. No. 673-44 In preparing this research project, a general review of World Bank lending in support of the tree crops sector has been carried out, identifying different approaches for supporting tree crop development with the alternatives distinguished by differences in the organizational arrangements, the level of support to intended beneficiaries, and the source of financing. The present research project will use case studies of Sri Lanka and Indonesia to develop a broader perspective on issues of project design, cost recovery, and efficient taxation policies for the tree crop sector. Secondary material will also be used to put the work on Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia in perspective with the results achieved and problems experienced in the more long-standing and more thoroughly researched tree crop development programs and policies in Malaysia. The research is a cooperative effort within the World Bank by the Country Policy Department and the Agriculture and Rural Development Department with assistance from the regional departments responsible for Indonesia and Sri Lanka. Working relationships have been established with Team Khusus, an Indonesian Government Unit responsible for tree crop projects funded with foreign assistance, and with a Working Group on Tree Crop Producer Incentives set up by the Ministry of Finance and Planning in Sri Lanka. Results will be presented in separate papers on Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia and in a volume that uses cross-country comparisons and analyses to draw out the main lessons and policy implications for project design and cost recovery in agri- cultural support programs. Responsibility: Country Policy Department -- Trent Bertrand, and Agriculture and Rural Development -- Jack van Holst Pellekaan. Comparative Research on Organizational Options for Canal Irrigation Ref. No. 673-47P Much of the discussion and the practice regarding improving the performance of canal irrigation schemes has concentrated on the rehabilitation of the hardware -- on lining the distribution system, installing new gates, improving canal roads, and so on. However, there has also been discussion about managerial changes -- changes in the structure of the organizations responsible for operating and maintaining canal systems, and changes in their standard operating pro.edures. This study will examine both the structure and operation of canal managment institutions using a comparative methodology, and covering a range of countries. The research preparation stage will involve four components. The first is to make an inventory of the main types of canal management organization found in Asia and Africa, and to correlate the appearance of eac*L. type with (a) agro-climatic conditions, (b) size of system, (c) administrative traditions. The objective is to investigate how closely determined is the - 69 - choice of organizational type by these three factors. The second component is an examination of the available evidence on the hypothesis that a watershed- based parastatal form of canal management organization is likely to manage water more effectively and maintain the system better than a centralized, departmental form of organization. The task of the third component is to survey the literature on bureaucratic incentives, in particular, that on the relationship between incentives and the structure of organizations. The fourth part will be a preliminary study of one major approach to canal design and organization, specifically, the "French" method which typically uses "downstream" control. The research preparation period should generate enough maLerial to allow the formulation of more precise hypotheses for testing against more carefully generated data from a wide variety of locations and administrative and technical traditions. Responsibility: Agricultural and Rural Development Department -- Robert Wade. Common Property Resource Management Issues for the Sudano-Sahelian Zone of Sub-Saharan Africa Ref. No. 673-60P The recent World Bank Report on desertification identifies the Sudano-Sahelian zone and similar agroclimate zones of the Eastern and Southern parts of Africa as those most threatened by environmental degradation. The report concludes that in these areas it is not the lack of technical knowledge of how to prevent environmental degradation, but the absence of sound management practices of the land, pasture and forestry resources which is the primary unresolved issue. Moreover, the report states that Local farmer and herder communities had traditional management practices which in the past were able to provide for efficient resource use, but that these systems have broken down in many places under the impact of population pressure and/or because of interventions of central governments. This study will examine the following issues in a comparative fashion across a wide variety of environments in the Sudano-Sahelian zone: 1) the traditional management systems of pasture, water and forestry resources; 2) links bett-een environmental degradation and the breakdown of the management systems; 3) the potential management systems which would be consistent with high levels of efficiency; 4) if such systems exist, why they haven't been adopted or implemented uniformly so far; 5) the impact of changes in management systems on equity. The research project will concentrate on testing the hypotheses with data from many locations which differ according to population density, soils and climate, administrative systems and government policies. The data on the various locations would be assembled from preexisting literature, maps and extended field visits. - 70 - Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Department -- Hans Binswanger. The Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing Ref. No. 673-64 The objective of this comparative study is a systematic examination of dynamics and results of agriculture price policy. By evaluating the costs and benefits of typical agricultural policy packages in selected countries, the project will attempt to identify alternative policies entailing lower efficiency costs, and assess the possibilities for their implementation based on administrative feasibility and historical experience. The study will develop a quantitative history of agricultural policies; identily the winners, losers and neL welfare losses as a result of such policies; compare expected with actual results of policy packages; explore the dynamics o. pressure groups and the interdependence of policies over time; and analyze the effect of unexpected shocks on the dynamics of policies. This study expects to provide a basis for future policy advice to member countries on the need and attributes of a more targeted approach in agricultural pricing, on a optimal sequencing for implementation of such policies, and on the bureaucratic constraints policymakers will confront. Responsibility: Economics and Research Staff -- Anne 0. Krueger, Development Research Department -- Maurice Schiff. The Role of Risk in Sahelian Agriculture Ref. No. 673-67 This research seeks to improve the factual base of Sahelian agricul- tural policy by investigating farm technology and farmers' production behav- ior. The data for the investigation come from ICRISAT's five-year farm survey of six villages in three agro-eco zones in Burkina Faso. The data set is unique and valuable by virtue of its longevity, its geographical distribution, its coverage of both farm production and marketing, and the care taken to ensure its accuracy. Drawing on the ICRISAT data, the specific objectives of the project are: (1) to investigate the relationships between risk, technology and productivity for the major Sahelian crops (sorghum and millet); and (2) to determine the influence of risk and other variables (e.g. prices and incomes) on cropping patterns, technological choice and farm production response. The results of the proposed analysis are expected to improve agricul- tural policies in a nutaber of areas: on technology choice, input priorities and constraints; on pricing policies; and on biological research priorities. By highlighting how farmers deal with risk, the research should help the design of programs and policies associated with unfavorable, risky environ- mental conditions. - 71 - Responsibility: West Africa Projects Department -- Tariq Busain and Dennis Anderson are providing supervision within the Bank, and research is being undertaken by a research team at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, headed by Professor Kenneth M. Shapiro, and comprising Professors Jean-Paul Chavas, A. Cobe Johnson, and Michael Carter. Small-Holder Tree Farming and Fuelwood Crisis Ref. No. 673-74P Population pressure has resulted in deforestation in many developing countries. In some regions, overharvesting of wood resources for energy has been a major cause and has led to serious environmental problems (e.g., over- cutting of watersheds, increased soil erosion and hastening of the desertification process in semi-arid zones). Forest policy intervention programs have included both community and smallholder tree farming as ways in which to alleviate some of the problems of deforestation. The main objective of this research is to provide the Bank with a more rational basis for incentive policies as applied to Bank forestry project lending. Secondly, the research study seeks to resolve some of the uncertainties and bottlenecks to accelerated fuelwood response in developing countries. The major research issues that need to be addressed in the proposed research project involve an examination of energy, forestry, and agriculture. The research questions to be elaborated and developed by the proposal include: i) What determines the probability that people will plant trees? Is it the stumpage price, the potential rate of tree regrowth, the impact of wood scarcity on the time people spend searching for fuelwood, the relative returns compared to agriculture, the land tenure situation, or other factors? ii) What are the prices for wood fuels and the forest product (e.g., poles) and how are they determined? Do wood fuel prices depend on the alternative prices of commercial fuels or on the supply of biomass materials? iii) Do wood fuel prices stay low and shoot up rapidly as deforestation accelerates? Does that result in excessive environmental damage? What is the impact of that on agricultural productivity and on land and water resources? iv) What are the externalities from tree farming not captured in price, and what are the private benefits for farmers? v) What form should a subsidy for smallholder tree farming take, if any? How can such subsidies be more effectively channeled to tree growers? Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Derelopment Department -- J. Spears. - 72 - Study of the Impact of Irrigation on Production in India Ref. No. 673-77 This project seeks to further exploit data collected under Ref. No. 671-89 ("Impact of Agricultural Development on Employment and Poverty in India"). This completed study generated a wealth of farm-management data, (particularly for Andhra Pradesh and Bihar States) which should yield valuabLe empirical information to help isolate the impact of irrigration on production and production costs. To achieve this objective, this project proposes cleaning the Andhra farm-management data, segregating the plots by irrigation code, and then presenting simple tabulations of inputs and outputs per h3ctare by irrigation code, both physical and by value, without regard to other variables. Responsibility: South Asia Projects Department - Irrigation II Division -- John F. Cunningham. - 73 - 4 Industry Scope for Capital-Labor Substitution in the Mechanical Engineering Industry Ref. No. 670-23C The World Bank's Research Committee has supported two investigations of planning methodology in the mechanical engineering industries. The present study extends this methodology to permit the specification of alternative production techniques and the incorporation of product differentiation. It analyzes the scope for capital-labor substitution in mechanical engineering activities and the extent of substitution between locally produced and imported mechanical engineering products. The first part of this study is concerned with alternative production techniques for given product specifications. The second part of this study is concerned with substitution between domestically produced and imported textile-weaving machinery in the Republic of Korea. This part of the study is also highly disaggregated in order to isolate the effects of differentials in labor skills, characteristics of individual machines, learning by doing, depreciation and obsolescence, firm organization, and product differentiation. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- Larry E. Westphal, in collaboration with Yung W. Rhee of the Industry Department, and with engineers of the Korea Institute of Science and Technology. Reports Korea Institute of Science and Technology. "Final Report on a Study of the Scope for Capital-Labor Substitution in the Mechanical Engineering Sector." (F6-400-2), February 1973. Rhee, Yung W., and Westphal, Larry E. "Choice of Technology: Criteria, Search, and Interdependence." In Herbert Ciersch (ed.), International Econoaiic Development and Resource Transfer: Workshop 1978 (Institut fur Weltwirtschaft, Kiel). Tubingen: J. C. Mohr (Paul Siebeck), 1979. Also World Bank Reprint Series: Number 103. . "Microanalytic Aspects of Complementary Intraindustry Specialization." Paper presented at the seminar on North-South Complementary Intraindustry Trade, Mexico City, August 1980. Summary in Directors Report, U.N. 1980, UNCTAD/MDIIII, pp. 17-19. -__ 0. "A Micro Econometric Investigation of Choice of Technology." Journal of Development Economics 4 (September 1977):205-37. Also World Bank Reprint Series: Number Fifty. Westphal, Larry E. "Research on Appropriate Technology." Industry and Development 2 (1978):28-46. Also World Bank Reprint Series: Number Eighty-eight. - 74 - Programming in the Manufacturing Sector Ref. No. 670-24 This research project deals with the problem of investment analysis in industries characterized by increasing returns to scale. The study focuses on improved methods for selecting investment projects from among the many alternatives in size, timing, location, technology, and output mix. The research aims at providing operationally useful and practical techniques of analysis that permic a more systematic treatment of the problem of project seLection. The research effort was begun with three empirical studies, dealing with the Eastern African fertilizer industry, the Korean mechanical engineering industry, and the Mexican heavy electrical equipment industry. Except for the development of software, the major emphasis of this research program has gradually shifted from research to application and dissemination. Applications are carried out in various contexts. Investment planning studies were completed for the fertilizer sector in the Arab Republic of Egypt, as well as in member countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Andean Common Market. A detailed case study on India is under way. A planning study was made of the Mexican steel industry jointly with Mexican counterparts. The World Pulp and Paper Program of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has used the planning methodology to analyze national and multicountry investment programs in the forest industry sector. Most studies are conducted in collaboration with staff from the World Bank's Industry Department and relevant regional offices, and usually involve Local institutions as well. The Andean Common Market study involved staff and financing from the Junta del Acuerdo de Cartagena and the Inter-American Development Bank. Responsibility: Development Research Department and European, Middle East, North Africa Country Programs Department I -- Alexander Meeraus, Larry Westphal, and Everardus Stoutjesdijk, respectively, in collaboration with Armeane M. Choksi, Country Policy Department; Yung W. Rhee and William F. Sheldrick, Industry Department; and Harald Stier, South Asia Projects Department; and Hans Bergendorff, David Kendrick, Peter Glenshaw, Loet Mennes, and Jaime Alatorre (consultants). Reports Balassa, Bela, and Stoutjesdijk, Everardus "Economic Integration among Developing Countries." Journal of Common Market Studies 186 (September 1974):37-55. Also World Bank Reprint Series: Number Thirty. Choksi, Armeane M.; Kendrick, David; and Meeraus, Alexander. La Programmation des investissements industriels - Methode et etude de cas. Paris: Economica, L981. . "A Planning Study of the Fertilizer Sector in Egypt." World Bank Staff WorKing Paper No. 269, July 1977. - 75 - Meeraus, Alexander, and Stoutjesdijk, Everardus (eds.). The Planning of Investment Programs (A World Bank Research Publication series): Vol. 1. Kendrick, David, and Stoutjesdijk, Everardus. The Planning of Industrial Investment Programs. A Methodolog. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978. Vol. 2. Choksi, Armeane M.; Meeraus, Alexander; and Stoutjesdijk, Everardus, The Planning of Investment Programs in the Fertilizer Industry. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980. Vol. 3. Kendrick, David; Meeraus, Alexander; and Alatorre, Jaime. The Planning of Investment Programs in the Steel Industry. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1984. Vol. 4. Mennes, Loet B.M., and Stoutjesdijk, Everardus. Multi-Country Investment Analysis (forthcoming). Vol. 5. Bergendorff, Hans; Glenshaw, Peter; and Meeraus, ALexander. The Planning of Investment Programs in the Forestry and Forest Industry Sector (forthcoming). Stoutjesdijk, Everardus, and Westphal, Larry E. (eds.). Industrial Investment Analysis under Increasing Returns. New York: Oxford University Press (forthcoming). Industrial Policies and Economic Integration in Western Africa Ref. No. 670-87 Earlier studies on incentives in developing countries concentrated on those countries that had already established an industrial base. This research project examines the policies followed by four developing Western African nations that are representative of the region and provide diversity in industriaL development, location, and language: Ghana, Ivory Coast, Mali, and Senegal. The purpose of the project is to examine the choice of alternative strategies for economic growth in Western Africa, such as import substitution, export promotion and the expansion of intraregional trade through economic integration. Attention is given to the choice between the expansion of agriculture or of industry in the individual countries. A comparison of the results for the four countries will also shed light on the possibilities for regional integration. Responsibility: Office of the Vice President, Economics and Research Staff -- Bela Balassa. The individual country studies have been undertaken by the following collaborators: Agricultural sections in all country studies - J. Dirck Stryker, Tufts University. Industrial sections and general evaluation: Ghana - Scott R. Pearson and Gerald C. NeLson, both of the Food Research Institute, Standord University; Ivory Coast - Carry Pursell, Industry Department. Reports Balassa, Bela. "Avantages compares et perspectives de 'integration economique en Afrique de l'Ouest." Paper prepared for the Colloque sur 'integration en Afrique de l'Ouest, Dakar, Senegal, March-April 1978. - 76 - "The 'Effects Method' of Project Evaluation." Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (November L976):219-232. French translation in Annales economiques 11 (1977). Also World Bank Reprint Series: Number Fifty-five. Horton, Brendan, and Pursett, Carry. "Incentives and the Economic Efficiency of Resource Allocation in SenegaLese Industry (1971-1973)." Boston and Washington, D.C.: Boston University and the World Bank, September 1984. Monson, Terry D., and Pursell, Carry. "An Evaluation of Expatriate Labor Replacement in the Ivory Coast." Center for Research on Economic Development Discussion Paper No. 49. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, April 1976. French translation in L'Actualite economique (June 1977). Revised version in Journal of Development Economics 6 (1979):119-39. Pearson, Scott; Nelson, Gerald C.; and Stryker, J. Dirck. "Incentives and Comparative Advantage in Ghanaian Industry and Agriculture." Palo Alto: Standford Food Research Institute, May 1976. Pursell, Garry. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Foreign Capital and Expatriates in the West African Community." Paper presented at the International Conferenco on the Economic Development of the Sahelian Countries, Montreal, Canada, October L977. . "Cost-Benefit Evaluation of LDC Industrial Sectors Which Have Foreign Ownership." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 465, July 1981. Protection and Incentive Systems in the Turkish Manufacturing Sector Ref. No. 672-36A The objective of this research project is to analyze the system of industrial incentives and the structure of comparative advantage in the Turkish manufacturing sector. This is to be done on the basis of firm-level data and will provide the framework for a comprehensive reform of policies dealing with such issues. The methodology permits the computation from firm- level data of estimates of effective protection, effective subsidy, and domestic resource cost coefficients, as well as economic rates of return on capital. The first stage has been completed with the design of the firm questionnaire and sample, containing 259 firms in 85 manufacturing sectors. The survey is under way. In 1981 the Bank's computer program for estimation of indicators of incentives and comparative advantage was transferred to the computing facilities of Bosphorus University. The results of the research project will form the basis for a series of policy papers that will contain a set of recommendations to the government and the Bank on the reform of the system of industrial incentives in Turkey. - 77 - Responsibility: Europe, Middle East, and North Africa Country Programs Department II -- Jayanta Roy and Katrine W. Saito, under the overall advice of Bela Balassa in the Economic and Research Staff. The research is to be carried out by a team led by Professor M. Hic (Istanbul University). The team consists of Professor F. Yagci, Bosphorus University; Professor M. Genceli, Istanbul University; and Professor I. Birdal, Yildaz Polytechnical Academy. Re,orts Yagci, Fahrettin. "Protection and Incentives in Turkish Manufacturing. An Evaluation of Policies and their Impact in 1981." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 660, 1984. Experimental Support Unit for Work on Industrial Incentives and Comparative Advantage (INCA) Ref. No. 672-44AC A major portion of Bank-supported research on industry in developing countries has been devoted to the quantitative analysis of incentive systems and comparative advantage (INCA analysis). Under this project an Industrial Incentives and Comparative Advantage (INCA) unit was established on an experimental basis for a two-year period. The unit is working on methodologies and techniques (including computer programs and software), developed in the course of past research in this field, to make them more useful for operational work. It provides support to operating departments of the Bank and to the Bank's affiliate, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), for their work in this area. A major objective of the unit, which is part of the Industrial Strategy and Policy Division of the Industry Department, is to assist the regional operating departments in building up the capability of national institutions to undertake INCA analysis. The work of the unit is currently being absorbed by and will become a permanent part of the activities of the Industrial Strategy and Policy Division in the Industry Department. Responsibility: Industry Department -- Garry Pursell, in collaboration with the Productivity Division of the Development Research Department, and with Neil Roger and Yoon Joo Lee (consultants). The unit is involved in INCA work undertaken by government agencies and research organizations in about fourteen member countries. Reports Cuthbertson, S. (consultant). "Effective Protection Studies and Policy Advice." INCA Unit. Mimeo. The World Bank: Industry Department, March 1982. - 78 - Lee, Yoon Joo (consultant). "Technical Manual for INCA Studies (Incentives and Comparative Advantage Studies)." (Description of mainframe computer programs in three papers: Part A: The Main Program: Part B: The Subprograms; Part C: Worksheets.) INCA Unit. Mimeo. The World Bank: Industry Department, November 1983. . "An IVCA Model for Micro Computers (For Incentive and CompLrative Advantage Studies)." Description of IBM-PC programs. INCA Unit, Mimeo. The World Bank: Industry Department, June 1984. Lee, Yoon Joo (consultant) and Decaluwe, Bernard (Universite Laval). "Procedures pour 1'estimation des taux de protection effectifs dans les matrices entrees-sorties," L'Actualite Economigue, Revue d'analyse economique, Vol. 60, No. 2 (juin 1984). Pursell, Carry. "Example of Effective Protection, DRC and ERC Calculation: Cotton Spinning and Weaving Firm." INCA Unit. Mimeo. The World Bank: Industry Department, October 1982. Pursell, Garry and Roger, Neil (consultant). "Manual on Incentives and Comparative Advantage Studies." INCA Unit. Mimeo. The World Bank: Industry Department, October 1984. Roger, Neil (consultant). "Some Notes on Allocation of Working Capital Loans." INCA Unit. Mimeo. The World Bank: Industry Department, March 1983. Tower, Edward (consultant). "On a Quick and Dirty Approach to Estimating Second Best Optimum Tariffs," Revista Internazionale de Scienza Economica e Commerciale, XXXI No. 3. March 1984. . "Effective Protection, Domestic Resource Costs and Shadow Prices: A General Equilibrium Perspective." INCA Unit. Mimeo. The World Bank: Industry Department, July 1984. . "Directory of Information Sources on International Prices." INCA Unit. Mimeo. The World Bank: Industry Department, June 1984. . "List of Effective Protection Studies Held at the Industrial Strategy and Policy Division, Industry Department, The World Bank." INCA Unit. Mimeo. The World Bank: Industry Department, June 1984. . "Manual on Incentives and Comparative Advantage Studies." Draft. INCA Unit, Strategy and Policy Division. The World Bank: Industry Department, October 1983. Tower, Edward (consultant) and Pursell, Garry. "On Shadow Pricing Foreign Exchange, Goods and Factors." INCA Unit. Mimeo. The World Bank: Industry Department, January 1984. The Acquisition of Te=hnological Capability Ref. No. 672-48 Considerable effort in the research community has been addressed to issues of choice of technique, appropriate technology, technology transfer, and more recently to technological change at the individual firm level. This research project is intended to yield an overview of technological capability in industry to develop an understanding of what technological capability consists of and how it is acquired. It will seek - 79 - cross-country comparative information in order to get a broad appreciation of different country experiences and of different relations between local technological capability, industrial development, and government policies. The project has links with other current research at the World Bank on trade and industry. The project covers three countries -- India, the Republic of Korea, and Mexico. The Inter-American Development Bank participated in the initial design of this project, and is planning to undertake a similar study in Brazil and perhaps in some other Latin American countries. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- Larry E. Westphal and Carl J. Dahlman. Responsibility for the individual country studies is as follows: India -- Sanjaya Lall, Oxford Institute of Economics and Statistics; Korea -- Alice Amsden, Barnard College (New York), and Linsu Kim, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology; Mexico -- CarL Dahlman of the World Bank, and Eduardo Montano, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. Reports Bell, Martin; Ross-Larson, Bruce; and Westphal, Larry E. "Assessing the Performance of Infant Industries." Journal of Development Economics, 16 (forthcoming). Also World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 666, 1984. Dahlman, Carl J. "Foreign Technology and Indigenous Technological Capability in Brazil." In Martin Fransman and Kenneth King (eds.), Technological Capability in the Third World. London: Macmillan, 1984. . "Technological Development and Manufactured Exports." In Brazil: Industrial Policies and Manufactured Exports. World Bank Country Study. The World Bank, 1983. Dahtman, Carl J., and Cortes, Mariluz. "Mexico." World Development 12 (Special issue: Exports of Technology by Newly Industrializing Countries, May/June 1984). Dahlman, Carl J., and Sercovich, Francisco. "Exports of Technology from Semi- Industrial Economies." Journal of Development Economics 6 (forthcoming). Also published as "Local Development and Exports of Technology: The Comparative Advantages of Argentina, Brazil, India, Korea, and Mexico." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 667, 1984. Dahlman, Carl J., and Westphal, Larry E. "The Meaning of Technological Mastery in Relation to Transfer of Technology." In Alan W. Heston and Howard Pack (eds.), The Annals of the American Academy of Political an' Social Science, Technology Transfer: New Issues, New Analysis, vol. 458 (November 1981). Also available as World Bank Reprint Series: Number 217. . "Technological Effort in Industrial Development -- An Interpretative Survey of Recent Research." In Frances Stewart and Jeffrey James (eds.), The Economics of New Technology in Developing Countries. London: Frances Pinter Ltd., 1982. Also available as World Bank Reprint Series: Number 263. . "The Transfer of Technology: Issues in the Acquisition of Technological Capability by Developing Countries." Finance and Development, December 1983. - 80 - Lall, Sanjaya. "Exports of Technology by Newly-Industrializing Countries, An Overview", in World Development 12, (Special issue: Exports of Technology by Newly Industrializing Countries, May/June, 1984). . "India." World Development 12, (Special issue: Exports of Technology by Newly Industrializing Countries, May/June, 1984). WestphaL, Larry E.; Linsu Kim; and Dahlman, Carl J. "Reflections on Korea's Acquisition of Technological Capability." World Bank Development Research Department Discussion Paper No. 77, May 1984. Westphal, Larry E.; Rhee, Yung W.; Kim, Linsu; and Amsden, Alice. "Republic of Korea," World Development 12 (Special issue: Exports of Technology by Newly Industrializing Countries, May/June 1984). Also published as "Exports of Capital Goods and Related Services from the Republic of Korea." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 629, January 1984. Westphal, Larry E.; Rhee, Yung W.; and Pursell, Garry. "Korean Industrial Competence: Where it Came From." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 469, July 1981. . "Sources of Technological Capability in South Korea." In Martin Fransman and Kenneth King (eds.), Technological Capability in the Third World. London: Macmillan, 1984. Productivity Change in Infant Industry (Phase I) Ref. No. 672-86C This research is an effort to begin accumulating a body of evidence on the nature and sources if changes in production costs over time in at the enterprise level in industry. A major focus of the work will be to identify by means of comparisons between new and established firms those sources of productivity change which are unique to new firms and industries and to improvde understanding of the types and importance of market failures affecting the development of infant industries. The research will apply the quantitative methodology of productivity analysis, supplemented by case studies and engineering analyses, to a sample of firms that are distinguished by age, technological characteristics, policy regimes and production environments in several developing countries. Countries for field studies are the Arab Republic of Egypt and Thailand. The research will be coordinated with a research project with similar objectives in Japan funded by institutions there, which will provide valuable comparative data. Responsibility: Industry Department -- Mieko Nishimizu and John K. Page, Jr. Reports Brimble, Peter. "The Infant Activity Argument, Empirical Analysis, and Policy Issues." The World Bank: Industry Department, June 1984. Handoussa, Heba; Nishimizu, Mieko; and Page, John. "Productivity Change in Egyptian Public Sector Industries After 'The Opening' 1973-1979." Journal of Development Economics (forthcoming). - 81 - Nishimizu, Mieko, and Page, John. "Productivity Change and Dynamic Compara- tive Advantage." Mimeo. The World Bank: Industry Department, July 1984. Small-Scale Cement Study Ref. No. 672-94PC Focusing on investment planning of the cement industry, this study anticipates developing a proposal for (i) improving cementitious materials needed for small-scale housing, irrigation channels, and secondary roads; (ii) setting appropriate standards of quality for the materials and their use; and (iii) ascertaining optimal transport, distribution and use networks. Responsibility: Industry Department -- Christian Duvigneau, Projects Advisory Staff -- Charles Weiss. India: Study of Industrial Incentives Ref. No. 673-03PC As is the case in many developing countries, India has a complex system of domestic controls on industry, in addition to a foreign trade regime characterized by a comprehensive system of quantitative restrictions, import duties, export restrictions, taxes and subsidies. The main instruments for such intervention on the domestic side include licenses for capacity, imports and exports; domestic price controls; credit allocations and subsidies; production and investment incentives for specific activities and groups; and production subsidies. The objective of this study is to 1) evaluate the net impact of the incentive system and of each of the policy instruments for promoting/protecting/controlling industry in India; 2) extend the existing methodology for measuring the impact of industrial systems (already well developed in the case of foreign trade interventions) to domestic controls; 3) examine the interaction of the system of domestic controls and the foreign trade regime; and 4) develop the information base required to assess the effectiveness of individual policy instruments and to undertake rationalization of the industrial incentive system. Responsibility: South Asia Country Programs Department -- Cosmas Robless. Pricing in Large-Scale Manufacturing Ref. No. 673-25P Past experience with policy reform has shown that progress toward suitable pricing policies is frequently slow and the process complex. This project undertakes research preparation work to examine relevant issues and - 82 - assess the need for a research project to develop criteria to help formulate appropriate administered pricing policies in developing countries which would: (a) reflect appropriate economic rules for efficient resource allocation under such constraints as international market structure, public resource availability, and administrative capability; (b) provide adequate incentives to enterprises to invest in new plants; (c) motivate producers to operate efficiently at the enterprise level; (d) assure the financial viability of enterprises subject to administered pricing; and (e) be implementable in operational work. The research project may have two major components, the first requiring theoretical work on economic pricing, international trade and public finance to consider optimal pricing rules for public, and private enterprises. The second component would involve comparative, empirical studies of price policy in several large-scale industries, exploring the Linkages between the structure of the pricing system and the incentives for productivity improvements in producers. As an important part of the research preparation work, an international seminar on fertilizer pricing has been undertaken. The seminar's proceedings is being prepared for publication. Responsibility: Industry Department -- Kemal Dervis and Edilberto Segura. Conference on Small-Scale Enterprise Development in Delhi Ref. No. 673-53 The protection and encouragement of small-scale enterprises in manufacturing have been advocated as important elements in a policy of promoting labor intensive economic growth in many LDC's. India represents the classic case of a widespread implementation of such policies and the lessons of the Indian experi.aent are useful for policymakers and development economists throughout the world. Despite the importance of the subject, systematic research on this issue seems to have been undertaken for the first time in recent years by the World Bank team. In order to disseminate the results of the output from the research project on Small-Scale Enterprise Development (RPO 659-71) a conference was held in Delhi in March 1985. The principal output to be discussed was the draft monograph "Small Manufacturing Enterprises: A Comparative Study of India and Other Countries" by Ian Little, Dipak Mazumdar and John Page. Also invited were other Indian scholars working in the field and scholars from Erasmus University, Holland, who have conducted a research project on the same subject in India under an Indo-Dutch collaborative program of studies. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- Dipak Mazumdar, and Industry Department -- John Page. - 83 - 5 Transportation, Water, and Telecommunications Substitution of Labor and Equipment in Civil Construction Ref. No. 670-26C Civil works in developing countries are often built with equipment- intensive methods, even though there may be an abundant supply of unemployed labor. This study, started in the early 1970s, is a framework for research into and implementation of construction methods that are more appropriate for Labor-abundant and capital-scarce countries. Phase I established the technical feasibility of factor substitution for a wide range of construction activities. Phase II collected field data at road, dam, and irrigation sites in India and Indonesia where labor-based construction methods have been used for centuries. Phase III showed that improvements in management, tools, and the health/nutritional status of the labor force could significantly increase productivity at the site level. Lessons from the research and field work have been summarized in a book, currently being published, containing guidelines for the planning, execution, and monitoring of Labor-based civil construction programs in capital-scarce and labor-abundant developing countries. Apart from the resources allocated to it by the World Bank, the study has been financially supported by the governments of Canada, Denmark, Finland, the Federal Republic of Germany, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Responsibility: Transportation and Water Department -- Helmut S. Kaden. The consulting firms of Scott, Wilson, Kirkpatrick and Partners (U.K.) and GITEC (Federal Repubic of Germany) have extensively participated in the study. The Overseas Development Ministry of the United Kingdom has provided a number of specialists who assisted at different stages of the study. Extensive field suppcrt has been provided by the governments of Honduras, India, Kenya, and Lesotho. Reports Bose, Swadesh R. "Some Aspects of Unskilled Labor Markets for Civil Construction in India: Observations Based on Field Investigation" (Phase III). World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 223, November 1975. Coukis, Basil P., et al. Labor-Based Construction Programs: A Practical Guide for Planning and Management. New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 1983. Coukis, Basil P., and Grimes, Orville F., Jr. "Labor-based Civil Construction." Finance and Development 17 (March 1980):32-35. . "A Guide to Competitive Bidding on Construction Projects in Labor- Abundant Economies." Washington and London: The World Bank and Scott, Wilson, Kirkpatrick and Partners, 1978. . "Labor-Intensive Construction Techniques: Report of a World Bank Seminar." The World Bank: Transportation and Water Department, 1977. - 84 - . "Scope for the Substitution of Labor and Uquipment in Civil Construction -- A Progress Report" (Phase III). New Delhi: Indian Roads Congress, December 1979. . "Some Aspects of the Use of Labor-Intensive Methods for Road Construction" (Phase III). New Delhi: Indian Roads Congress, December 1976. . "The Study of Labor and Capital Substitution in Civil Engineering Construction: Report on the World Bank-sponsored Seminars in Washington, Cologne, Copenhagen, London, and Tokyo." The World Bank: Transportation and Water Department, September 1978. Highway Design Maintenance Standards Study (Phase II) Ref. No. 670-27 Assistance by the World Bank for highway development is focused on lower-income, capital-scarce countries with widely varying climates. Phase I of the Highway Design Study, completed in 1971, developed a conceptual framework for analyzing relationships between design standards, maintenance standards, and vehicle operating costs. Phase II of the research focused, first, on the collection and analysis of primary data on the unL:-trlying physical and economic relationships necessary to calculate cost trade-offs under various conditions and, second, the updating and elaboration of manage- ment decision models. A major field study was undertaken in Kenya from 1971 to 1974 to cover road, traffic, and environmental conditions typical of Eastern Africa. A parallel study in Brazil (1976-1984) extended the data base with respect to vehicle operating costs and road deterioration for conditions typical of much of Latin America. Finally, a study of vehicle operating costs in India (1977-1983) that is addressing the special construction methods and traffic patterns encountered there will be completed in 1983. The Kenya and Brazil studies have quantified, for the first time, the effects of various road surface conditions on vehicle speeds and operating costs. The basic research was completed in 1985 and a multi-volume Final Report series is in process of publication. Longer term followup studies on road deterioration and traffic flow simulation will continue in Brazil and India. The investment decision model (HDM) will be updated from time to time as new results become available. Responsibility: Transportation and Water Department -- Clell G. Harral and Thawat Watanatada. The work in Kenya was done by the Transport and Road Research Laboratory of the United Kingdom, in collaboration with the Ministry of Works. The study in Brazil was undertaken by the Brazilian Transport Planning Agency (GEIPOT), with technical assistance from the University of Texas, Austin, and financial support from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The study in India is being conducted by the Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi, in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, and the Indian Institute of Statistics. The - 85 - Swedish National Traffic and Road Research Institute (VTI) and the Australian Road Research Board are also providing technical assistance in the area of research of traffic flows. Reports Bhandari, Anil S., et al. "Towards Optimization of Paved Road Maintenance in Costa Rica." Paper presented at Congress of Transport Engineering, San Jose, Costa Rica, July 1984. Harral, Clell C., and Agarval, Surendra. "Highway Design Standards Study." Paper presented at the (First) International Conference on Low Volume Roads. Special Report 160. U.S. Transportation Research Board, 1975. Harral, Clell G.; Fossberg, Per E.; and Watanatada, Thawat. "Evaluating the Economic Priority of Highway Maintenance." Paper presented at the Pan- African Conference on Highway Maintenance, Accra, Ghana, November 1977. . "The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model." Paper presented at the Second International Conference on Low Volume Roads, Ames, Iowa, August 1979. Hide, H., et al. The Kenya Road Transport Cost Study: Research on Vehicle Operating Costs. TRRL Laboratory Report 672. Crowthorne (United Kingdom): Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1975. Hodges, J.W., et al. The Kenya Road Transport Cost Study: Research on Road Deterioration. TRRL Laboratory Report 673. Crowthorne (United Kingdom): Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1975. Moavenzadeh, Fred, et al. "Highway Design Study, Phase I: The Model." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 96, January 1971 (out of print). Watanatada, Thawat. "The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model: Model Description and User's Manual (Release II)." The World Bank: Transportation and Water Department, December 1981. Watanatada, Thawat, and Harral, Clell G. "Determination of Economically Balanced Highway Expenditure Programs under Budget Constraints: A Practical Approach." Paper presented at the World Conference on Transport Research, London, April 1980. Final Report Vol. 1. Chesher, Andrew, and Harrison, Robert. "User Cost Sa.ings from Highway Improvements: Evidence from Developing Countries (World Bank, 1985). Vol. II. Watanatada, Thawat, et al. "Models for Predicting Vehicle Speeds and Operating Costs based on Principles of Vehicle Mechanics and Driver Behavior: Theory and Quantification" (World Bank, 1985). Vol. III. Paterson, William D. 0. "Prediction of Road Deterioration and Maintenance Effects: Theory and Quantification (World Bank, 1985). Vol. IV. Watanatada, Thawat, et al. "The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model (HDM-III): Model Description and User's Manual" (World Bank, 1985). - 86 - The Determinants of Railway Traffic, Freight Transport, and the Choice of Transport Modes Ref. No. 672-07C This research will use information to be collected by the Netherlands Institute of Transport for a study of freight traffic in the European Economic Communities and Spain (since data are not available in sufficient detail for developing countries) ro analyze the comparative advantage of railways as against other modes of transport and of the factors governing shippers' choice of transport modes, for specified groups of commodities. It is expected to yield rigorously formulated hypotheses that can be tested in studies of individual developing countries. Responsibility: Transportation and Water Department -- Pedro N. Taborga and M. S. Nanjundiah. Most of the work will be undertaken by the Netherlands Institute of Transport. Pricing and Taxing Transport Fuels in Developing Countries Ref. No. 672--83 The object of the research is to provide a logically sound and empirically manageable method for setting prices and taxes on transport fuels and vehicles, bearing in mind the circumstances of the individual transport sector and the general objectives of the governments concerned. The distributional impact of changes in transport prices will be explored with an econometrically estimated demand system that, together with the input-output table, will yield estimates of the parameters needed for the choice of the tax structure. The study will demonstrate the consequences for tax design of ignoring distributional considerations or attaching varying degrees of importance to them. A separate component of the research will present the methodology for estimating the cost of road use, establish order-of-magnitude estimates on the basis of the major recent empirical work in that area, and propose methods for charging for these costs. The intended output of the research is a methodology for pricing and taxing fuels that can be applied in developing countries, each differing in its endowment of statistical data, and in the degree of fiscal flexibility. It will also provide order-of-magnitude estimates of the critical parameters and variables. The impact of changes in fuel price on prices and income distribution in Thailand has been explored by a model based on an input-output table and a consumer budget survey, and similar study for Tunisia is in progress. - 87 - Responsibility: Transportation Department - Esra Bennathan, with the assistance of Clell G. Harral and in collaboration with Gordon Hughes and David Newbery, Cambridge University, and F.D. Paterson (consultants). Demand for Personal Travel in Developing Countries Demand for Personal Travel in Developing Countries Ref. No. 673-05 The opportunity for personal travel -- whether for work, education or to satisfy social or private needs -- the fares, and the quality and amount of service are sensitive social and political issues, according to the experience of many developing countries. The broad objective of this research project is to bring modern consumer theory to bear on the analysis and prediction of demand for personal travel in developing countries. Consumer demand analysis will be applied to urban and rural data to estimate models that can simultaneously serve as the basis for forecasting, policy analysis, and the assessment of the distributional consequences of changes in travel opportunity. By analyzing the determinants of travel expenditure and ownership of vehicles, projections of broad categories of demand for travel will be facilitated and a framework for discussion of issues of transport policy, such as pricing, taxation, subsidization, and provision of services and infrastructure, will be provided. The present study will therefore include a plan for integrated surveying, whether by way of a travel module in household surveys or travel surveys with wider household coverage (including non-traveling households), to be implemented and analyzed in a subsequent stage of research. Responsibility: Transportation Department - Esra Bennathan, and Development Research Department -- Gregory K. Ingram. 6 Energy Development and Application of a Minimum Standard Energy Demand Model for Developing Countries Ref. No. 672-63C The steep increase in the price of petroleum in 1973-74 led in many countries to a careful examination of the way energy resources were used. Long-term energy projections have shown that energy consumption in developing countries could reach about 80 percent of the projected consumption in industrial countries. Hence, there is clearly a need to focus more sharply on the trends and behavior of energy demand in developing countries. - 88 - The main objective of this research study is to develop an analytical framework that will make it possible to analyze and project the demand for energy -- in terms of the major fuels used -- in the main economic sectors of developing countries. The research aims at developing a minimum standard energy demand model that can be applied -- with minimal adjustments -- to a large number of countries. The minimum standard model will eventually be extended as more information about developing countries' energy sectors becomes available. The proposed minimum standard model will consist of an economic module and an energy module. The purpose of the economic module is to translate exogenously projected changes in final demand into the corresponding changes of gross output using an input-output approach. The energy module converts the changes in gross output into corresponding changes in final and primary energy consumption in the industrial sector, the transport sector, agriculture, and the commercial and residential sectors. The model will be applied in four developing countries -- Brazil, India, Kenya, and Malaysia. Responsibility: Economic Analysis and Projections Department -- Peter Pollak. The research project is carried out by Professor Lutz Hoffmann and Dr. Lorenz Jarass of the University of Regensburg, Federal Republic of Germany. The Welfare Implications of Eliminating Energy Subsidies in Indonesia Ref. No. 672-70C The objective of this study was to evaluate the welfare implications of eliminating energy subsidies in Indonesia for different groups of consumers distinguished by income, geographical region, household size, and other characteristics that are relevant to the determination of demand patterns. The rationale stems from the Bank's advice to the Government of Indonesia to reduce and eventually to eliminate subsidies on the domestic consumption of oil products, which currently amount to about 3.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). This research should provide answers to important questions raised by policymakers' recommendations (ie. the elimination of subsidies) such as: Which groups are likely to benefit the most from this policy change? Which groups are likely to benefit the least? How do the distributions of welfare among different groups of households compare before and after the implementation of the suggested policy? Alternate policy changes -- defined by varying (increased) price levels of energy and time-paths for the elimination of subsidies - will be developed to determine their welfare implications for the households and to identify those consumer groups that are most significantly affected by different policy regimes. This also will provide useful information for targeting conservation efforts towards specific groups, and, since unique - 89 - group-snecific demand functions can be derived from the model, it can be used to project group-specific consumption patterns in response to changes in prices, incomes, quantity constraints, and other government policies. Reponsibility: Country Policy Department -- Armeane M. Choksi. The principal researchers include Professor Lawrence Lau in collaboration with Dennis Framholzer, both of Stanford University, Professors Mark Pitt and Lung-Fei Lee, both of the University of Minnesota. The Central Bureau of Statistics, Indonesia, is also involved. Reports rIndonesia: Selected Issues of Energy Pricing Policies." The World Bank Report No. 4285 - IND. The World Bank: Country Policy Department, August 1983. Framholzer, D.; Lau, L.; and Pitt, M. "The Welfare Effects of Increases in the Price of Energy in Indonesia." Draft. The World Bank: Country Policy Department, 1983. Pitt, M. The Demand for Energy by Indonesian Households." Draft. The Worli Bank: Country Policy Department, 1983. . The Demand for Energy in Indonesian Manufacturing." Draft. The World Bank: Country Policy Department, 1983. . "Equity, Externalities and Energy Subsidies: The Case of Kerosene in Indonesia." Draft. The World Bank: Country Policy Department, 1983. Pitt, M., and Lee, L. F. "The Welfare Implications of Energy Subsidies in Indonesia." Draft. The World Bank: Country Policy Department, 1983. Adjustment in Oil-Importing Countries Ref. No. 672-74C Oil-importing developing countries were significantly affected in the 1970s and early 80s by three external shocks: (1) deteriorating terms of trade; (2) a reduction in the growth of export volumes arising from the recession in the industrial market economies; and (3) a rise in real interest rates. These effects called for both national and international adjustment -- that is, the transfer of either real resources or claims on future resources to oil-exporting countries. This research studies the different ways in which national adjustment has been effected. It identifies the broad features of adjustment through cross-country comparative analysis; isolates the key relationships that must underlie models of macroeconomic adjustment; and assembles policy-focused case studies of archetypal countries distinguished by the structure of production and trade. The project is intended to contribute towards the formal incorporation of adjustment analysis in the Bank's country economic work. The research project has developed a macroeconometric modeling framework which goes beyond the purely accounting-based approach characteristic of earlier comparative work. The results are used to generate a decomposition of shocks and adjustment, the Latter into categories such as - 90 - export expansion, impnrt substitution, public and private resource mobilization, slowdown in investment demand, and additional external financing. This was done for 35 countries. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- Pradeep K. Mitra. Other staff members involved are Shantayanan Devarajan and Hector Sierra for the Thailand study. Collaborators include Professor Frank Lysy, the Johns Hopkins University, for the Turkey study; Professor Alan Roe, Warwick University, for the Kenya study,; Professor Suresh Tendulkar, Delhi School of Economics, for the India study. Reports Lysy, Frank. "An Analysis of Turkey's Repsonse to External Shocks in the V'70's." Mimeo. The World Bank: Development Research Department, -anuary 1984. . "A Model for the Analysis of Macro Structural Adjustment." Mimeo. The World Bank: Development Research Department, June 1984. Mitra, P. "Accounting for Adjustment in Selected Primary Producing Countries." Mimeo. The World Bank: Development Research Department, October 1983. . "Adjustment to External Shocks, 1974-81," Box 2.3 in World Development Report 1984, New York: Oxford University Press, 1984. . "Adjustment to External Shocks: Country Experience." Paper presented at the international conference "Adjusting to Shocks: A North- South Perspective," Bergamo, Italy. Also in Studies in Banking and Finance. Amsterdam: North Holland (forthcoming, 1985). . "A Description of Adjustment to External Shocks: Country Groups," Development Research Department Discussion Paper No. 85. Also in D. Lal (ed.), Perspectives on the Global Economy. The World Bank: (forthcoming). . "Accounting for Adjustment in Selected Semi-Industrial Countries." Mimeo. The World Bank: Development Research Department Discussion Paper No. 70, May 1983. Roe, Alan. "Kenya: Adjustment and Income Distribution in Thailand." Mimeo. The World Bank: Development Research Department, January 1984. Sierra, Hector. "Economic Adjustment and Income Distribution in Thailand." Mimeo. The World Bank: Development Research Department, January 1984. 7 Urbanization and Regional Development Strategic Planning To Accommodate Rapid Growth in Cities of Developing Countries "The City Study" Ref. No. 671-47C In the past few decades, many Large cities in developing countries have experienced extremely high population growth, which has created the need for massive public investment and the expansion of public services. The study's principal objectives were to analyze the determinants of urban - 91 - development patterns, the effects of urban projects on these patterns and their effects on the welfare of urban households. The study has zested the applicability of existing techniques and developed new tools to estimate the spatial and economic impact of policy interventions, including the planning, execution, and evaluation of projects. In the study, five components of the urban economy were examined: housing, transporation, employment location, labor force, and public finance. The research was carried out in the form of a case study of Bogota, Colombia and portions of the study were extended to the Colombian city of Cali. Responsibility: Urban Development Department -- Gregory K. Ingram, Andrew M. Hamer, Kyu Sik Lee, Johannes F. Linn, and Rakesh Mohan have been working on the project. Corporazion Centro Regional de Poblacion (CCRP) in Bogota is the project's main collaborating institution, and the CCRP staff members principally involved include Ramiro Cardona, Jose Fernando Pineda, Alvaro Pachan, and Rodrigo Villamizar. The Chamber of Commerce of Bogota has been actively involved in disseminating the project's results and is now supporting additional analysis in Bogota. The Urban and Regional Development Section of the Colombian National Planning Office has provided general assistance. In Cali, the Departmental and the Municipal Planning Office have participated directly in the project. Reports:* 1. SPATIAL PATTERNS OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT Ingram, Gregory K., and Carroll, Alan. "The Spatial Structure of Latin American Cities." Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 9, No. 2 (March 1981):257-73. Also in R.vista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, No. 43 (June 1981):9-28. Also World 3ank Report No. 211, 1981. Ingram, G. K.; Pineda, J. F.; and Pachon, A. "The Developing Metropolies: Lessons from the City Study of Bogota and Cali." World Bank Staff Working Paper (forthcoming). Lee, Y. J. "The Spatial Development of Brazil Metropolitan Areas". (Project Paper No. 19) Urban Regional Report No. 79-18. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, 1979. Pineda, J. F., and Rodriguez, S. "La Poblacion de Bogota." Documento de Trabajo No. 26. Bogota: Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion, 1982. * The list of reports produced in connection with this project is lengthy and could not be reproduced in its entirety here. A complete bibliography may be obtained from the Urban Development Department. - 92 - 2. LAND MARKETS Ingram, Gregory K. "Land in Perspective: Its Role in the Structure of Cities." In M. Cullen and S. Woolery (eds.), World Congress on Land Policy Proceedings. Lexington (Massachusetts): D.C. Heath, 1982, 103- 118. Also in World Bank Reprint Series:Number 292. Mohan, R., and Villamizar, R. "The Evolution of Land Values in the Context of Rapid Urban Growth: A Case Study of Bogota." In M. Cullen and S. Woolery (eds.), World Congress on Land Policy Proceedings. Lexington, (Massachussetts): D.C. Heath, 1982:103-118. Also in World Bank Reprint Series: Number 292. Villamizar, Rodrigo. "Los Precios de la Tierra en Bogota: 1955-1978." Working Paper No. 5, Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion, Bogota, 1980; also in Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, Nos 41-42 (December 1980):117-170. Appears as "Land Prices in Bogota between 1955 and 1978" in J. V. Henderson (ed.), Research in Urban Economics, Vol. 2, Greenwich (Connecticut): JAI Press, Inc., 1981. Also in World Bank Reprint Series (forthcoming). . "Land Prices and Public Services: Interactions and Interrelations." Texas Public Utility Magazine, Vol. V (1983). Wagner, W. M. "Vacant Lots, Land Pri'es, and Assessment practices: The Case of Bogota, Colombia." World ksao.k Staff Working Paper No. 651, 1984. Wiesner, Guillermo. "Cien Anos de Desarrollo Historico de los Precios de La Tierra en Bogota." Documento de Trabajo No. 4, Bogota: Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion, 1980. Also in Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, Nos. 41-42. (December 1980):171-208. 3. HOUSING AND RESIDENTIAL LOCATION Carroll, Alan. "Pirate Subdivisions and the Market for Residential Lots in Bogota." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 435, 1980. Also in Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, Nos. 41-42 (December 1980):209-292. Hamer, A. "Bogotars Unregulated Subdivisions: They Myths and Realities of Incremental Housing Construction." Urban and Regional Report No. 81-19, Development Economics Department. The World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1981; also in Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, Nos. 45-46 (December 1981):9-81. Ingram, Gregory K. "Housing Demand in the Developing Metropolis." Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, Nos. 45-46 (December 1981):82-121. World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 663, (forthcoming) 1984. Pineda, J. F. "Residential Location Decisions of Multiple Workdar Households in Bogota, Colombia." Ph.D. dissertation. University of California, Berkeley, 1981. Stevenson, Rafael. "Los Programas y las Politicas de Vivienda en Bogota: Analisis Historico Descriptivo." Working Paper No. 2, Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion, Bogota, 1980. Also in Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, No. 43, (June 1981):91-158. English version in Water and Urban Development Discussion Paper No. 51, 1984. - 93 - 4. TRANSPORT Cifuentes, J. I. "El Transporte en Bogota." Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, No. 43 (June 1981):151-184. English version in Water and Urban Development Discussion Paper No. 51, 1982. Latorre, Emilio. "El Modelo de Demanda de Transporte para Cali: TASSIM- Cali. Descripcion y Utilizacion." Documento de Trabajo No. 10. Bogota: Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion, 1981. Kozel, V. "Comparisons of Disaggregate Demand Model Parameter Stability over Time in a Developing Country: A Colombia Example." Urban and Regional Report No. 82-2, Development Economics Department. The World Bank, January 1982. . "Travel Demand Models for Developing Countries: The Case of Bogota, Colombia." Urban and Regional Report No. 81-26. The World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1981. Pachon, A. "El Automovil en Dos Metropolis del Tercer Mundo." Documento de Trabajo No. 17. Bogota: Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion, 1981. Also in Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, Nos. 45-46 (March 1982):188-222. . "El Impacto Redistributivo de La Intervencion del Gobierno en el Transporte Urbano." Documento de Trabajo No. 19. Bogota: Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion, 1981. Also in Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, No. 43 (June 1981):185-216. . "Situacion del Transporte en CAli y Bogota. Decada de los Setenta." Documento de Trabajo No. 18. Bogota: Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion, 1981. . "Urban Structure, Modal Choice and Auto Ownership." Intermediate Paper No. 31. Urban and Regional Economics Division, Development Economics Department. The World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1979. 5. EMPLOYMENT LOCATION Lee, Kyu Sik. "Determinants of Intra-Urban Location of Manufacturing Employment. Urban and legional Report No. 81-3. Development Economics Department. The World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1981. "Intra-Urban Location of Manufacturing Employment in Colombia." Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 9, No. 2, (March 1981):222-241. Also in Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, No. 43 (June 1981):49-72. Also in World Bank Reptint Series: Number 195. . "A Model of Intra-Urban Employment Location: An Application to Bogota, Colombia." Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 12, No. 3 (November 1981):263-279. (World Bank Reprint Series: Number 249.) Also in Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, No. 43 (June 1981)48-72. 6. LABOR MARKETS AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION Fields, Gary S. "How Segmented is the Bogota Labor Market?" World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 434, 1980. Also in Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, Nos. 41-42 (December 1980):293-253. Mohan, R. "An Anatomy of the Distribution of Urban Incomes." Urban Development Discussion Paper. The World Bank, August 1983. - 94 - . "The Determinants of Labor Earnings in Developing Metropolis: World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 498, 1981. . The Determinants of Labor Force Participation in a Developing Metropolis: Evidence from Bogota, Colombia." Paper presented at the Latin American Economical Working Conference, Bogota, 1982. . "The People of Bogota: Who They Are, What They Earn, Where They Live." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 390, 1980. Also in Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, Nos. 41-42 (December 1980):9-116. Mohan, R.; Wagner, W.; and Garcia, J. "Measuring Malnutrition and Poverty: A Case Study of Bogota and Cali, Colombia." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 447, 1981. Mohan, R., and Hartline, N. "The Poor of Bogota: Who They Are, What They Do, and Where They Live." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 635, 1984. 7. PUBLIC FINANCE Fawcett, Caroline S. "The Revenue and Sharing System in Colombia: A Case Study of Bogota." In Urban Finance in Bogota, Colombia. Water Supply and Urkan Development Discussion Paper No. 39. The World Bank, 1984. Greytak, David. "Revenue and Expenditure Forecasting in Bogota." In J. F. Linn (ed.), Urban Finances in Bogota, Colombia. Water Supply and Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 39. The World Bank, 1984. Linn, J. F. "Impuesto Predial en Bogota, Colombia. Un Analsis del Bajo Rendimiento de los Ingresos por este Concepto." Documento de Trabajo No. 15. Bogota: Corporacion Centro Regional de Poblacion, 1981. Also in Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, No. 43 (June 1981):73-90. (ed.). Urban Finances in Bogota, Colombia. Water Supply and Urban Development Discussion Paper No. 39. The World Bank, 1984. Wolff, Juergen H. "Budgeting and Investment Planning in Bogota." In J. F. Linn (ed.), Urban Finances in Bogota, Colombia. Water Supply and Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 39. The World Bank, 1984. 8. RELATED BANK PAPERS IN PUBLIC FINANCE Lee, Y. J. "The City Study: The Available Data, Vol. II." Urban and Regional Report No. 79-13. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, 1978. . "The City Study: The Available Data, Vol. III." Urban and Regional Report No. 81-18. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, 1981. Linn, Johannes F. "Estimation of Water Supply Costs in Cali, Colombia." Urban and Regional Report No. 76-14. The World Bank. Development Economics Department. . "The Incidence of Urban Property Taxation in Colombia." In Roy W. Bah1 (ed.), The Taxation of Urban Property in Less Developed Countries. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1979. Pachon, Alvaro; Pineda, J. F.; Contreras, Beatriz; and Ruiz de Cardona, Martha. 'Bogota 1983: La Realidad de su Situacion Social y Economica." Revista Camara de Comercio de Bogota, March 1984. - 95 - Valverde, Nelson. "The City Study: Available Data, Vol. I." Urban and Regional Report No. 78-6. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, 1978. National Spatial Policies: Brazil Ref. No. 672-13C This research is the first project in a program aimed at responding to some concerns about the degree to which population and economic activity are concentrated in a few urban centers in various developing countries. The project focuses on spatial issues in Brazil, in particular those related to the patterns of urban and industrial growth in Greater Sao Paulo and its regional hinterland. Further case studies are anticipated; preparatory work on the Republic of Korea took place in 1981 and led to a second study. A program is also being developed with collaborating institutions in India. The major component of the study is an analysis of the determinants of the behavior of industrial firms in deciding where to locate. An extensive survey of 600 new branch plants and independent firms in Sao Paulo State provides the principal data for this exercise. The project also traces the spatial impact of selected nonspatial policies in Brazil, concentrating primarily on industrial sector programs (trade, fiscal incentives, credit subsidies) and on intergovernmental relations. An important concern at this point is whether public sector policies tend to promote or hinder any process of deconcentration that might take place, whether spontaneous or induced by specific spatial incentives. Responsibility: Urban Development Department - Andrew M. Hamer, in collaboration with William Dillinger. Principal consultants are Vernon Henderson and Peter Townroe. Secondary data were gathered and analyzed primarily with the aid of the Fundacao Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica. The analyses of the impact of the public sector on cities of different sizes relied on the collaboration of the National Planning Secretariat, through its Instituto de Planajamento Economico e Social. Work on the component on industrial location was conducted jointly with the Fundacao Instituto de Pesquisas Economicas of the University of Sao Paulo. Reports Dillinger, William. "Implicit Spatial Policies: The Case of Fiscal System in Sao Paulo State." The World Bank: Urban Development Department, National Spatial Policies Working Paper No. 5, November 1981. Dillinger, William, and Hamer, Andrew. "Sources of Growth in Manufacturing Employment in Non-metropolitan Areas." The World Bank: Urban Development Department, National Spatial Policies Working Paper No. 17, September 1982. - 96 - Fundacao Instituto de Pesquisas Economicas. "The Coding Manual and the Simple Frequency Distributions of Responses to the 1980 Sao Paulo Industrial Survey." The World Bank: Urban Development Department, National Spatial Policies Working Paper No. 4, May 1981. Hamer, Andrew M. "Limited Search Procedures and Manufacturing Location Behavior: A Case Study of Sao Paulo, Brazil." The World Bank: Urban Development Deparatment, National Spatial Policies Working Paper No. 9, November 1981. Henderson, John V. "A Framework for International Comparisons of Systems of Cities." The World Bank: Urban Development Department, National Spatial Policies Working Paper No. 1, March 1980. Keen, David, J., and Townroe, Peter M. "The Influence of Relative Labor Conditions on Industrial Location in Sao Paulo, Brazil." The World Bank: Urban Development Department, National Spatial Policies Intermediate Paper No. 2, April 1982. . "Polarizati-n Reversal in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil." The World Bank: Urban D4velopment Department, National Spatial Policies Working Paper No. 6, March 1982. . "The Role of Public Infrastructure Investments in Stimulating Industrial Crowth and Development." The World Bank: Urban Development Department, National Spatial Policies Working Paper No. 13, July 1982. . "Urbanization Patterns and Industrial Location in Sao Paulo State, Brazil: An Atlas." The World Bank: Urban Development Department, National Spatial Policies Working Paper No. 11, July 1982. Purdy, Jr., John F. "The Evolution of the Brazilian Urban System between 1950 and 1980." The World Bank: Urban Development Department, National Spatial Policies Intermediate Paper No. 3, December 1981. Redwood, John. "Industrialization Policy and the Locational and Other Characteristics of Sao Paulo-Based and Local Industrial Establishments Receiving Fiscal Incentives in Northeast Brazil." The World Bank: Urban Development Department, National Spatial Policies Working Paper No. 15, June 1982. (Being revised). Ruane, Frances. "Sectoral Policies and the Spatial Concentration of Industrial Activities: A Factor-Market Adjustment Approach." The World Bank: Urban Development Department, National Spatial Policies Working Paper No. 7, November 1981. (Revised September 1982). Townroe, Peter M. "A Framework for the Study of New Industrial Locations within the City Region." The World Bank: Urban Development Department, National Spatial Policies Working Paper No. 2, January 1981. . "Locational Choices by Manufacturing Industry and the Development of a Metropolitan Industrial Decentralization Policy-Issues for the State of Sao Paulo." The World Bank: Urban Development Department, National Spatial Intermediate Paper No. 1, July 1981. . "Locational Factors for Industry Decentralizing from Metropolitan Sao Paulo, Brazil." The World Bank: Urban Development Department, National Spatial Policies Working Paper No. 3, July 1981. (Being revised). - 97 - Housing Demand and Housing Finance in Developing Countries (Phase I) Ref. No. 672-46 This study examines housing demand in a number of developing countries in order to inform policy decisions concerning shelter and infrastructure at both the project and sector level. Phase I of the project, which began in July 1981, extended previous Bank sti-dies by estimating econometric models of housing demand in 16 cities in eight developing countries (Columbia, Arab Republic of Egypt, El Salvador, Ghana, India, Jamaica, Republic of Korea, and the Philippines). Implications of findings from Phase I for shelter project design and evaluation are being explored in workshops. The major focus of Phase II of the project is on conducting comparative policy analyses of government interventions in land and housing markets (e.g. rent control, subsidized public housing, formal housing finance systems, and tenure reform). Responsibility: Water Supply and Urban Development Department - Stephen K. Mayo, Stephen Malpezzi and David Gross. The current principal consultants are Joseph Friedman (Tel Aviv University and the University of Pennsylvania), Raymond Struyk and Margery Turner (The Urban Institute), and Michael Hay (University of Western Ontario). The Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore, is a collaborating institution. Past principal consultants are James Follain (University of Illinois) and Emmanuel Jimenez (University of Western Ontario). Reports Follain, James R., Jr., and Gross, David J. "Estimating Housing Demand and Residential Location with a Price Function that Varies by Distance and Direction" presented at the Annual Meetings of the Southern Economic Association, November 1983. Follain, James R., Jr.; Gross, David; Jimenez, Emmanuel; and Malpezzi, Stephen. "Annotated Bibliography of Housing Characteristic Demand Studies." Water Supply and Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 47. The World Bank, February 84. Follain, James R., Jr., and Jimenez, Emmanuel. "The Demand for Housing Characteristics in Developing Countries." Water Supply and Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 43. The World Bank, October 1983. . "The Demand for Housing Characteristics in Three Developing Countries: Colombia, Korea and the Philippines." World Bank Staff Working Paper (forthcoming). . "Estimating the Demand for Housing Characteristics: A Survey and Critique." Water Supply and Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 42. The World Bank, October 1983. * The list of reports produced in connection with this project is lengthy and could not be reproduced in its entirety here. A complete bibliography may be obtained from the Urban Development Department. - 98 - Follain, James R., Jr.; Jimenez, Emanuel; Kang, Sungyong; Malpezzi, Stephen; and Mayo, Stephen K. "Housling in Korea: Recent Trends and Recurrent Problems." in Gill-Chin Lim (ed.), "Urban Planning and Spatial Strategies in Rapidly Changing Societies." Princeton, N. J.: Consortium on Urban and Regional Policy in Developing Countries, 1983. Jimenez, Emmanuel. "Tenure Security and Urban Squatting." Water Supply and Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 46. The World Bank, January 1984. Jimenez, Emmanuel, and Mayo, Stephen K. "The Value of Tenure Security: Formal and Informal Housing Markets in Metropolitan Manila." Mimeo. The World Bank: Water Supply and Urban Development Department, June 1984. Malpezzi, Stephen. "Analyzing an Urban Housing Survey: Economic Models and Statistical Techniques." Water Supply and Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 52. The World Bank, April 1984. Malpezzi, Stephen; Bamberger, Michael; and Mayo, Stephen K. "Planning an Urban Housing Survey: Key Issues for Researchers and Program Manager in Developing Countries." Water Supply and Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 44. The World Bank, 1982. Mayo, Stephen K. "Sources of Inefficiency in Subsidized Housing Programs: A Comparison of U.S. and German Experience." Paper prepared for the International Workshop on the Building Sector, Boston, Massachusetts. May 1984. Mayo, Stephen K., and Malpezzi, Stephen. "A Comparative Analysis of Housing Demand in Developing Countries." Water Supply and Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 41. The World Bank, February 1984. Mayo, Stephen K., with Malpezzi, Stephen; and Kang, Sungyong. "Housing Demand in Developing Countries." Mimeo. Water Supply and Urban Development Department. The World Bank, March 1983. Tipple, Graham. "Asante Culture and Low-Income Housing Policies: An Examination of Antithesis." Water Supply and Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 45. The World Bank, November 1983. An Evaluation of Industrial Location Policies for Urban Deconcentration (Phases I and II) Ref. Nos. 672-58 and 672-91 The main objective of this study is to produce analytical capabilities for quantitatively evaluating the efficiency of spatial policies. Since the extent of urbanization and spatial concentration depends on the changing location patterns of employment opportunities, the study focuses on the policy instruments intended to influence the location patterns of industries. An in-depth empirical study will be made of the Seoul region of the Republic of Korea, and in addition, some cross-country comparisons will be made. Responsibility: Water Supply and Urban Development Department -- Kyu Sik Lee, with the collaboration of Dong Hoon Chun and Kyuee Ha Pahk. Principal consultants are: Michael Murray of Claremont Graduate School (California), and the Rand Corporation; Sang-Chuel Choe and Byung-Nak Song, - 99 - Seoul National University (Republic of Korea), of which the Environmental Planning Institute is the project's main collaborating institution; and Won- Yong Kwon of the Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements. The Korean National Bureau of Statistics has provided general assistance in data-related work. Reports Choe, Sang-Chuel, and Song, Byung-Nak. "An Evaluation of Industrial Location Policies for Urban Deconcentration in the Seoul Region." Urbaa Development Department Discussion Paper No. 7. The World Bank, August 1982. Also in Journal of Environmental Studies, Vol. XVI (1984). Lee, Kyu Sik. "An Evaluation of Decentralization Policies in Light of Changing Location Patterns of Employment in the Seoul Region." Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 60. The World Bank (forthcoming). . "Decentralization Trends of Employment Location and Spatial Prlicies in LDC Cities." Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 20. The World Bank, May 1983. Also in George S. Tolley (ed.), Urbanization Processes and Policies in Developing Countries (forthcoming). Meyer, John R. "Report on Proposed Korean Spatial Study." Urban and Regional Report No. 81-1. The World Bank, March 1981. Murray, Michael P. "Here, There, Where?: A Strategy for Evaluating Industrial Relocation Policies in Korea." Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No, 6. The World Bank, May 1982. Also in George S. Tolley (ed.), Urbanization Processes and Policies in Developing Countries (forthcoming). Reedy, Diane E. "The Spatial Content of Bank Urban Sector Work." Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 21. The World Bank, March 1983. Song, Byung-Nak, and Choe, Sang-Chuel. "Review of Urban Trends and Policies in Korea." Urban and Regional Report No. 81-2. The World Bank, May 1981. Participant/Observer Evaluation of Urban Projects Ref. No. 672-59C Several types of poverty-oriented urban investment, most notably sites-and-services, slum upgrading, and credit schemes for small-scale enterprises are now making their impact felt among the urban poor. As evaluation efforts must give particular attention to the interaction of the projects with their ultimate beneficiaries, the Bank has undertaken experimental participant/observer evaluations in La Paz, Bolivia, and Guayaquil, Ecuador and subsequently extended the evaluations to projects in Brazil and Thailand. The broad objectives of these evaluations are (1) to use the anthropological methodology of participant/observation to supplement the knowledge derived from other procedures used in the evaluation of urban projects in Bolivia and Ecuador; and (2) to determine whether the benefits and relatively low cose of participant/observer evaluation would justify its use elsewhere as a supplement or substitute for more elaborate and expensive methods of evaluating new-style urban and rural development projects. - 100 - Responsibility: Projects Policy Department, Public Sector Management Unit - Arturo P. Israel and E.L. Schreiber, in coordination with the Water Supply and Urban Development Department -- Anthony Churchill; the Development Research Department - Gregory K. Ingram; and the Latin America and Caribbean Projects Department, Urban Division - Neil E. Boyle. Lawrence F. Salmen is the anthropologist/urban planner who conducted the study and also trained local researchers in Bolivia, Ecuador, Brazil and Thailand. Collaborating institutions in Ecuador include the National Housing Bank of Ecuador and National Housing Board (Banco Ecuatoriano do la Vivienda and Junta Nacional de la Vivienda BEV/JNV) and the Municipality of Guayaquil; in Bolivia, the collaborating institution is the Municipality of La Paz; in Brazil, the National Council for Urban Development (CNDU); and in Thailand, the National Housing Authority. Institutions in Ecuador, Bolivia, and Brazil have defrayed part of the costs of the project. Report Salmen, Lawrence. "Participant-Observer Evaluation of Urban Projects in La Paz, Bolivia and Guayaquil, Ecuador." Water Supply and Urban Development Discussion Paper No. 36. The World Bank, November 1983. National and State Analysis of Indian Urban Development Ref. No. 672-64C This project is intended to be the first stage of a phased program of research on urban development and urban problems in India. The program will analyze trends, prospects, and government policies concerning urban growth and management over the medium and long-term. The project consists of two parts: an examination of selected topics related to urbanization, and the development of a computable general equilibrium model for India by which the impact of alternative policies are estimated and evaluated. Three background papers dealing with industrial location, housing, and public finance have been written by researchers in India, and a series of papers on selected topics on urbanization have been substantively completed. A computable general equilibrium model, an extension of the Kelly- Williamson model for a representative developing country, is being developed and policy experiments with it are presently underway. Responsibility: Water Supply and Urban Development Department -- Koichi Mera, in collaboration with Edwin S. Mills, Jeffrey G. Williamson, Charles M. Becker, and Satyendra Verma (consultants). Earlier consultants were A. Uday Sekhar, Devendra B. Gupta, and Abhijit Datta. - 101 - Reports Becker, Charles M.; Mills, Edwin, S.; and Williamson, Jeffrey G. "Public Policy, Urbanization and Development: An Introduction to a Computable General Equilibrium Simulation Model of the Indian Economy." Water Supply and Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 22. The World Bank, November 1982. Gupta, Devendra B. "Urban Housing in India." Water Supply and Urban Development Department Discussion Paper. The World Bank (forthcoming). Hera, Koichi. "The National and State Analysis of the Indian Urban Development: RPO 672-64, Interim Summary Report." Water Supply and Urban Development Department Discussion Paper No. 23. The World Bank, May 1983. Mills, Edwin S., and Becker, Charles H. (eds.). "Studies in Indian Urban Development." Water Supply and Urban Development Department Discussion Paper. The World Bank. Development of a Model for Urban Land and Infrastructure Pricing, Costing, and Design Ref. No. 672-81C This research project was built on an existing model for analyzing the affordability of land use and engineering standards in residential urban projects. The existing model, called the "Bertaud Model," has been used widely in developing countries to analyze the trade-offs between land use and cost parameters within the affordability constraints provided by financial parameters. The extended submodel, to be programmed for microcomputers, uses much more detailed assumptions for unit cost and site layout to find an acceptable combination of infrastructure and design standards that would be consistent with the affordable cost and design parameters yielded by the existing affordability model. The model is being tested in India. Responsibility: South Asia Projects Department -- James 0. Wright, Jr. and Chandra Godavitarne, in collaboration with Alain C. Bertaud and Marie- Agnes Bertaud (consultants) who are developing the model. The model will be field tested in India by L. Laksmanan, D. Singh, and B.N. Singh (consultants). The Housing and Urban Development Corporation of India (HUDCO) will be the contractor for field testing. Singapore Area Licensing Scheme Ref. No. 673-17PC Rapid growth in demand for transport, spiraling costs and lack of resources are at the root of most transport problems in urban areas throughout the world. Yet demand has been allowed to grow virtually unrestrained and transport facilities and services in many cities have become severely overloaded. One of the primary reasons for this is that motorized transport does not pay the true cost of road use in most large urban areas and particularly their central business districts. - 102 - While the need to charge for road use has been recognized for many years, measures that are both effective as well as acceptable to the community have been hard to find. A method of restraint that has considerable promise is the system of area licensing which was introduced successfully in Singapore in June 1975, the subject of the research project "Study of Traffic Restraint in Singapore" (RPO 671-20). The follow-up study under this project (Ref. No. 673-17P) reviewed the longer-term impacts of the scheme, including the impact on land values, central area activities, business, and the environment, as well as the main purpose of the scheme, which was to improve traffic flow. The study has been completed, and has confirmed that the initial benefits of the scheme have been sustained. The study will assist in dealing with doubts expressed on the application of area licensing to other countries. Responsibility: Water Supply and Urban Development Department -- A. T. Armstrong-Wright. Reports "Singapore Area Licensing Scheme: A Review of the Impact." Presented as a case study to Environment Committee, OECD, 1984. Follow-up Impact Evaluation of the First Colombian Urban Project Ref. No. 673-20PC The First Urban Project (IPC) in Colombia represents the Bank's first attempt to develop an integrated multicity, multiagency urban project in Latin America. As the integrated approach is now being implemented in a number of other countries in the Region, there are many valuable lessons to be learned which could have very wide applicability. This project would prepare the design of a follow-up study to evaluate its impact and effectiveness in Colombia. This study could potentially contribute to the following operational and policy questions: (a) to provide the first systematic review of the overall impacts of an integrated urban development project in Latin America (the study sought to quantify all of the outputs and to develop cost effectiveness ratios by comparing these outputs with project costs); (b) to provide the first systematic evaluation of the costs (particularly administrative and organizational complexity) and benefits of the integrated approach; (c) to offer one of the first attempts to evaluate the impacts of the social and economic characteristics of the city on project performance; and (d) to contribute to our understanding of the linkages between different project components and how these Affect key outputs. The proposed study could assist in developing general evaluation criteria to be applied to a wide range of projects. Responsibility: Water Supply and Urban Development -- Michael Bamberger, Stephen Mayo, and Latin American and Caribbean Projects, Urban Division -- Maryvonne Plessis. - 103 - Urban Infrastructure and Industriel Productivity in West African Countries Ref. No. 673-29P This proposal designs a first phase of research into the economic returns to urban infrastructure investments in West Africa, with a special emphasis on investments serving industrial and commercial users. Selected cities in Nigeria and Ivory Coast have been identified for the proposed research; subsequent phases may extend the research to other countries, smaller cities or towns, or both. In West Africa, the large majority of industrial and commercial activities are small-scale, and it is believed that under-investment in, and poor maintenance of urban infrastructure both reduces their outputs and adds significantly to their costs of production. If so, then it follows that investments to meet their demands could earn high rates of return. The proposed research would investigate this possibility through firm-level surveys designed to reveal how the availability and quality of infrastructure services affect the costs and outputs of firms. The proposed research is considered important for the development of the Bank's own loan portfolio in the region, and for the current policy dialogue with governments, since it is believed that there would be appreciable gains in terms of growth and social welfare from a redirection of public investment programs in the region. Responsibilit : Western Africa, Projects Department - Dennis Anderson. National Low-Income Housing Project in Ecuador (Small Study) Ref. No. 673-30 Community participation and increased use of locally available building materials in low-cost housing schemes are the concerns of this small study to be conducted in Ecuador, under supervision of World Bank .staff, in collaboration with three Ecuadorian institutions - Junta Nacional de la Vivienda (JNV), Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACYT), and Asociacion Latinaamericana para la promocion del Habitat, el Urbanismo y La Arquitectura (ALAWA). The research will be undertaken during implementation of a Bank- financed loan for national low-income housing in Ecuador (Loan 2135-EC) the World Bank. This study is being carried out through two related projects. Project 105 would explore the economic, social, and cultural factors that condition community needs and choices regarding urban facilities and housing, and would seek to develop alternatives reflecting both increased us of local resources and greater community participation. Project 106 investigates and evaluates the prospects for developing mass-produced, low-cost housing designs - 104 - that are affordable and acceptable to low-income beneficiaries, and will attempt to devise improved mechanisms for participation by organized local communities in the processes of design and construction. Responsibility: Latin America and Caribbean Projects Department - Eric A. Canessa and Neil E. Boyle. Rent Control in Developing Countries Ref. No. 673-68P This proposed research project has two principal objectives. First, the study will survey rent control laws across countries, with special emphasis on developing countries. The survey will focus on such details as which units are controlled, how controlled units are appraised, how rents are adjusted over time, and what related laws exist (e.g. occupancy laws, land price controls, etc.). The survey will distinguish between laws as written and as enforced. Second, the project will produce case-studies of particular controlled markets. The case studies will provide empirical results which will shed light on the effects of different rent control regimes on the supply of housing, and costs and benefits to tenants. Reports prepared for two markets (Cairo, Egypt and Bangalore, India) under RPO 672-46 will be used; since the research will highlight the diversity of actual rent control regimes, additional case studies will be prepared. Outputs from the research project will be separate papers prepared for each new case study, a portable simulation program which can be adapted for future housing market policy research, and a final report which integrates the survey of rent control laws and practices, selected case study results, and decontrol simulations. The final report will make specific policy recommendations for different stylized rent control regimes under different market conditions. Responsibility: Water Supply and Urban Development Department -- Stephen Malpezzi. 8 Population and Human Resources 8-A. Education Education and Rural Development in Nepal and Thailand Ref. No. 671-49C The level of formal schooling of farmers is correlated with their efficiency as farm managers, and exposure of farmers to extension education - 105 - improves agricultural efficiency. There are also indications that the formal schooling level of rural women is often inversely correlated with the number of children they bear. Changes in agricultural productivity and population growth are two important dimensions of rural development. To the extent that education and adult information services do influence these variables, alternative governmental education policies may affect the course of rural development. This study explores these relationships by designing appropriate survey instruments, conducting surveys in Nepal and Thailand, and drawing conclusions from the data. Responsibility: Population, Health, and Nutrition Department - Dean T. Jamison and Susan H. Cochrane, in collaboration with Bal Gopal Baidya, Nirmala Joshi, Lawrence J. Lau, Pichit Lertamrab, Joanne Leslie, Karlaine Lockheed, Peter R. Moock, Francois Orivel, Rajendra Shrestha, Manu Seetisarn, and other consultants. Reports Baidya, B. G.; Chou, E. C.; Jamison, D. T.; Moock, P. R.; and Shrestha, R. "Evaluating the Impact of Communications on Agricultural Development: General Observations and a Case Study from Nepal." In M. Jussawalla and D. Lamberton (eds.), Economics of Communication. London: Pergamon Press, 1982. Cochrane, S. H. "The Determinants of Fertility and Child Survival in the Nepal Terai." Population and Human Resources Division Discussion Paper No. 81-34. The World Bank, 1981. Cochrane, S. H., and Jamison, D. T. "Factors Influencing Educational Attainment in Northern Thailand." In A. Summers (ed.), New Directions for Testing and Measurement: Measurement of Educational Productivity. Washington, D.C.: Jossey-Bass, (forthcoming). Cochrane, S. H.; Joshi, N.; and Nandwani, K. "Fertility Attitudes and Behavior in t!e Terai." Population and Human Resources Division Discussion Paper No. 81-9. The World Bank, 1981. Cochrane, S. H., and Nandwani, K. "The Determinants of Fertility in 22 Villages of Northern Thailand." Population and Human Resources Division Discussion Paper No. 81-59. The World Bank, 1981. Jamison, D. T.; Baidya, B. G.; and Leslie, J. "Determinants of the Literacy and Numeracy of Adults in the Terai Region of Nepal." Paper presented at the Eastern Economic Association Meetings, Boston, Massachusetts, May 1979. Jamison, D. T., and Moock, P. R. "Farmer Education and Farm Efficiency in Nepal: The Role of Schooling, Extension Services, and Cognitive Skills." Population and Human Resources Division Discussion Paper No. 81- 60. The World Bank, 1981. Leslie, J.; Baidya, B.G.; and Nandwani, K. "Prevalence and Correlates of Childhood Malnutrition in the Terai Region of Nepal." Population and Human Resources Division Discussion Paper No. 81-35. The World Bank, 1981. Leslie, J., and Jamison, D. T. "Maternal Ability and Child Malnutrition in Nepal." The World Bank: Development Research Department, 1978. - 106 - Lockheed, M. E., and Jamison, D. T. "Some Determinants of School Participation in the Terai Region of Nepal." The World Bank: Development Research Department, 1979. Education and Other Determinants of Farm Household Response to External Stimuli Ref. No. 671-78C The objective of this study is to examine empirically the determinants of the quantitative response (changes in production, consumption, and, possibly, migratory behavior) of farm households to external stimuli. Data from a sample of individual farm households in Thailand, observed over a period of time, will be used. External stimuli include prices of farm outputs and inputs, wage rates, capital and land endowments, taxes, rents, availability of credit, irrigation, and size and composition of the household. Responsibility: Population, Health, and Nutrition Department - Dean T. Jamison and Susan H. Cochrane. The principal researcher is Professor Lawrence J. Lau, Department of Economics, Stanford University, with the assistance of Erwin C. Chou (researcher). Mass Media and Rural Development Ref. No. 672-09C This project focuses on two ways in which mass media have been used to: (1) supplement existing agricultural extension services, either through the upgrading of agents or by communicating directly to farmers; and (2) offer learning activities of various kinds to rural groups created for this purpose (for example, farm forums, radio campaigns, radio listening groups, and radiophonic schools). The provisional conclusions were tested against field conditions by carrying out a limited number of case studies of rural education projects in Africa that Unesco had agreed to fund. Responsibility: Education Department and Population, Health, and Nutrition Department -- Shigenari Futagami and Dean T. Jamison, respec- tively. The principal collaborator is Hilary Perraton of the International Extension College in the United Kingdom. Reports Perraton, H.; Jamison, Dean; Jenkins, Janet; Orivel, Francois; and Wolff, Laurence. "Basic Education and Agricultural Extension: Costs, Effects and Alternatives." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 564, 1983. - 107 - International Study of the Retention of Literacy and Numeracy Ref. No. 671-55C This project is concerned with the measurement of the determinants of educational achievement and the relationship between acquired levels of skill and school leaving at the primary stage of education. It has been suggested that "threshold" Levels of learning exist -- beyond which retention of some skills is assured. The purpose of this project is to test the so-called "educational wastage" hypothesis directly, using a longitudinal methodology that permits the joint determination of the acquisition of skills and the decision to drop out. Subsidiary purposes of the study are to measure the productivity of educational inputs from the home and from the school system, and to examine the consequences of the repetition of grades for achievement and school leaving. The field work for the project is being carried out in the Arab Republic of Egypt. Phase I was a nationwide cross-sectional study of 60 elementary schools. Fifteen months later, 1,792 "dropouts" from the sample of 60 schools were traced and tested, using all the instruments applied to the in-school students. In Phase II, a follow-up study retested the original dropouts, new dropouts, and one-third of the remaining students in school. The field work for the project has been conducted with the assistance of the National Centre for Educational Research (NCER) of the Ministry of Education in Cairo. Assistance was also received from faculty members of the University of Cairo, Ain-Shams University, and American University in Cairo. Responsibility: Europe, Middle East and North Africa Projects Department and Development Research Department - James A. Socknat and Michael J. Hartley, respectively, in collaboration with Eric Swanson (consultant). Michael J. Wilson, Stephen P. Heyneman, and Mulugueta Wodajo were actively involved in the initial stages of the project. In the Ministry of Education of Egypt, the responsible official is Dr. Youssef Khalil Youssef, Director, National Center for Educational Research. Reports Hartley, H. J.; Poirier, D. J.; and Bencivenga, V. "A Statistical Methodology for the Egyptian Literacy Retention Study." Project Discussion Paper No. 1. The World Bank: Development Research Department, August 1979. Hartley, M. J., and Swanson, E. V. "Achievement and Wastage: An Analysis of the Retention of Basic Skills in Primary Education." Final Report of the International Study of Literacy and Numeracy: An Egyptian Case Study. The World Bank: Development Research Department, June 1984. . "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Censored and Truncated Normal Regression Model." Project Discussion Paper No. 3. The World Bank: Development Research Department, November 1980. . "The Measurement of Learning and Retention Curves for Basic Skills in Egyptian Primary Education: An Application of Censored Analysis of Variance." Project Discussion Paper No. 2. The World Bank: Development Research Department, August 1980. - 108 - Kheiralla, Sayed. "An Inventory and Evaluation of Intelligence and Achievement Tests in Arabic Available in Egypt." The World Bank: Education Department, December 1977. Saad, S. L.; Youssef, Y. K.; and Makary, Khalil, N. "Dropout and Enrollment Statistics of the SampLed Schools." Cairo: National Centre for Educational Research (NCER), 1980. Sheffield, James R. "Retention of Literacy and Basic Skills: A Review of the Literature." The World Bank: Education Department, June 1977. Swanson, E. V., et a'. "The Retention of Literacy/Numeracy Skills: An Overview for Basic Education in Egypt." Project Discussion Paper No. 4. The World Bank: Development Research Department, May 1981. Also in Basic Education in Egypt: Theory and Practise. Studies and papers presented to the Conference on Basic Education, Cairo, April 21 - 25, 1981. Sirs-el- Layyan, Egpyt: The Regional Centre for Functional Literacy in Rural Areas (ASFEC), 1981. Diversified Seco-dary Curriculum Study (DiSCuS) Ref. No. 672-45C This study, managed by the Bank's Education and Training Department, tested some of the assumptions that underlie diversification and evaluated the outcomes of practical/vocational curricula. Case studies were undertaken in two countries--Tanzania and Colombia--whose experience with diversified curricula was lengthy enough to be evaluated meaningfully. The data collected covered the costs of alternative curricula; the socioeconomic background of students; the characteristics of communities, schools, and teachers; and the aspirations of students and their subsequent attainments. A subset of the graduates was traced one to three years after leaving school to assess to what extent their experiences differed according to the type of school they had attended. Regression models were used to isolate the curriculum impact on cognitive outcomes net of factors like sex and socioeconomic background. Logit analysis was used to assess influence of differential school subjects on the decision to work or continue studying after secondary school graduation. The results of the study indicate that major components of the proj- ect's objectives were not met, and that the expense of the diversified schools was considerably more than that of the conventional academic schools. In particular, evidence from the DiSCuS study implies that diversified school students who continue their education are more likely to be found studying in a completely different subject area than the skill area in which they receive their prevocational training, that graduates from diversified secondary schools do not find employment more quickly than graduates from conventional schools, and that graduates from diversified schools do not demonstrate higher initial earnings than those from traditional academic schools. The study's findings were disseminated in two regional seminars (Bogota, Colombia and Arusha, Tanzania) in the Fall of 1984. Several articles have been written for reaching the education community at large (see Reports, below). - 109 - Responsibility: Education Department -- Gerge Psacharopoulos (supervisor), Latin America and the Caribbean Projects Department -- Ralph W. Harbison, and Eastern ALxica Projects Department -Laurence Wolff, in collaboration with the Colombian Ministry of Education and the Instituto SER de Investigacion and the Tanzanian Ministry of Education and the Department of Education, University of Dar es Salaam. Reports Psacharopoulos, George and Loxley, W. Diversified Secondary Education and Development: Evidence from Colombia and Tanzania. Baltimore, Md.; Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985 (Main Report on the study, monograph length). . "An Evaluation of Curriculum Diversification in Colombia and Tanzania." Comparative Education Review (May, 1985) (Summary of the project findings, article length). and Zabalza, Antonio. "The Effect of Diversified Schools on Employment Status and Earnings in Colombia." Economics of Education Review 3, No. 4, 1984 (Summary of the Colombia 1978 Cohort findings, article length). . The Destination and Early Career Performance of Secondary School Graduates in Colombia: Evidence from the 1978 Cohort, Washington, D.C., 1984, World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 653. . Velez, Eduardo and Zabalza, Antonio. Una Evaluacion de la Educacion Media Diversificada en Colombia Bogota: Fedesarrollo for the World Bank, 1985. Lillis, K., and Hogan, D. "Dilemmas of Diversification: Problems Associated with Vocational Education in Developing Countries." Comparative Education 19, No. 1 (1983). Velez, Eduardo and Trouchon, Pablo Luis. "Logros Educativos del Bachiller Colombiano: El Case de la Cohorte de 1978." Revista Colombiana de Educacion, No. 12 (1983):77-99. . 'Logros Ocupacionales del Bachiller Colombiano: El Caso de La Cohorte de 1978." In Educacion, Formacion Profesional y Empleo. Bogota; Sena (1984). Returns to Investment in School Quality in Rural Brazil Ref. No. 672-93 The degree of learning gains to be obtained from investments in quality in elementary schools in rural Brazil, the specific interventions that appear most effective, and the degree to which the quality of schools and teachers is associated with the later attainment of students, as reflected in the indifferential earnings, are the issues under study in this research preparation. Data will be collected in four rounds; the years covered will be between a preproject year -- 1981, and 1987. The sample will be randomly chosen from second and fourth grade pupils in three selected Brazilian states -- Pernambuco, Ceara, and Piaui -- among the nine states incorporated in the - 110 - project. Data from 1981 and 1983 are currently under analysis and working papers are expected in early 1985. Responsibility: Operations Policy Staff Education Department -- Ralph Harbison, and Education and Training Department -- Peter Moock and Robin Horn, in collaboration with Donald B. Holsinger, Center for Research on Education of the State University of New York at Albany (consultant), and Jane Armitage (consultant) who will reside in Fortaleza; Raimundo Helio Leite of the Federal University of Ceara in Fortaleza (Brazil), will direct the Brazilian research team responsible for conducting the evaluation. The Brazilian Ministry of Education and the Carlos Chagas Foundation are collaborating in the evaluation project as a whole. Education and informal Sector Employment Ref. No. 673-26 This project explores the effects of education on labor productivity and earnings in Peru. Special emphasis is given to earnings differentials among self-employed workers and those in the so-called informal sector of the economy. Because education may affect earnings, in part, by influencing deci- sions regarding migration and occupational choice, the study includes both rural and urban workers and those engaged in both formal and informal sector activities. A special survey, being carried out by Peru's Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, covers 5,000 households nationwide. The survey went into the field in mid-1985. This study attempts to break new ground both conceptually and methodologically. An appropriate framework for analyzing earnings in the Peruvian context needs to model the public and private determinants of a sequence of decisions that eventually determine productivity and earnings. These include decisions on how much and what types of education to invest in, and on where and in what occupations to seek employment. The returns to investment in education consist conceptually, therefore, of a direct component (higher earnings attributable to education's effect on productivity within the cho3en location and occupation), as well as an indirect component (higher earnings attributable to education's effect on locational and occupational dec;isions). Initial entry and cleaning of data is being done on specially pro- grammed microprocessors located in sixteen regional centers throughout Peru. This novel use of personal computers as primary data entry facilities has two principal benefits: it is improving the overall quality of the data by allow- ing more in-field checking of questionnaire responses, and it will shorten the lag time between field operations and the release of data for analysis. This project in Peru is closely related to an ongoing research proj- ect in the Ivory Coast, which is providing information on the full range of workers in the Ivorian economy. Taken together, these two projects are - 111 - expected to provide a unique comparative picture of the characteristics and workings of informal labor markets in the developing world. Responsibility: Education Department - Peter Moock, Ana-Maria Arriagada; Living Standards Unit, Development Research Department - Dennis de Tray, Juan Munos, and Martha Ainsworth; in collaboration with: T. Paul Schultz, Yale University, Vim Vijverberg, Illinois State University, Alphonse MacDonald, United Nations Statistical Office. Collaborating Peruvian institu- tions include the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Ministry of Educatio-.1, Ministry of Labor, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru, Centro de Investigacion de la Universidad del Pacifico, and Department of Economics, Universidad Catolica del Peru. A Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Different Types of Secondary Education in Shanghai Municipality, Peoples Republic of China Ref. No. 673-69 The need to improve the skill level and technical competence of the work force in China is self-evident. Less clear is the most efficient arrangement for industrial training; What combination or sequence of general, vocational education or nonformal training operated by enterprises is most cost-effective in raising the productivity of labor? This question lies at the heart of policy formulation for technical and vocational education (TVE) in China. The purpose of the proposed study is to clarify, in the context of the economic reforms programs for urban areas, two main issues with respect to Lhe vocationalization of upper secondary education - in particular, the rela- tive costs of various kinds of general and technical-vocational education at that level, and the transition patterns from school to work for graduates of these various types of secondary education. Systematic studies of the cost of different forms of TVE in China have not been made. Even less attention has been paid to the employment experience of graduates. Some of the key ques- tions to be asked are: How does the cost of TVE compare with that of general education? How does the cost vary by type of technical/vocational institu- tion? How is the unit cost influenced by the curriculum content, that is, the share of general subjects, specialized subjects and practicals? What is the employment experience of recent secondary graduates and how does any employ- ment pattern depend upon the particular kind of secondary education received? How long does it take graduates from the various types of school to reach acceptable (or average) performance standards in their work? What kind of additional training is typically required? The project funded here is designed to cover the first stage of this research, the relative costs of various types of secondary education. The cost study would be undertaken on a collaborative basis and co-financed with the Population Research Institute of the Department of Economics, Fudan University, Shanghai. The findings of this survey should help inform - 112 - policymakers of the relative cost of the secondary education system as it currently operates in Shanghai. Responsibility: East Asia and Pacific Projects Department - Robert S. Drysdale. 8-B. Labor and Employment Wage and Employment Trends and Structures in Developing Countries Ref. No. 671-84C This project was formulated as part of an evolving research program designed to provide a better foundation for analyses of change in wages and employment in individual countries; for the systematic compilation of comparable series on wages, employment, and other Labor market phenomena such as labor force participation, hours of work, skill formation, and mobility; and for the development of analytical tools or models of the behavior of labor markets to appraise specific issues of employment and income policies. The first component of the study reviewed the data collected to follow the labor market in developing countries and examined the problems that varying conceptual and statistical characteristics pose for estimating time trends and making intercountry comparisons. In the second component, studies of the evolution of the labor market were undertaken in India, Kenya, and Mexico. Responsibility: Country Policy Department -- Mark W. Leiserson has overall responsibility for the project. Swadesh R. Bose is responsible for the aggregative cross-country component of the research. Peter Gregory is consultant for the Mexico study and Deepak Lal for the India and Kenya studies. All four researchers will also be involved in developing the analytical and overall comparative aspects of the study. The Bureau of Statistics of the International Labour Office (ILO), Geneva, collaborated in assembling and documenting time series on wages in major economic sectors in individual developing countries. Other consultants and collaborators include: Professor Dharma Kumar and Bhaskar Dutta of the Delhi School of Economics and Professor Kanta Ahuja of the HCM State Institute of Public Administration, Jaipur, on the India study; Paul Collier, Oxford Institute of Statistics, on the Kenya study; Isaac Kerstenetzky, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE) on the Brazil study; Professor Peter Gregory, University of New Mexico, on the Mexico Study; Professor Raj Krishna, Delhi School of Economics, on the study of unemployment in.India. - 113 - Reports Bose, Swadesh. "Changes in Sectoral Wages in Developing Countries: Compilation of Data." Draft. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, September 1980. . "Employment, Unemployment and Wages in Some African Countries: A Review of Evidence for Recent Decades." Draft. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, May 1980. . "Trends in Employment, Unemployment and Wages in Developing Countries: A Review of Recent Decades." Draft. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, November 1980. Collier, Paul, and Lal, Deepak. "Coercion, Compassion and Competition: Wages and Employment Trends and Structures in Kenya 1800-1980." Employment and Income Distribution Division Paper No. 64. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, September 1980. . "Why Poor People Grow Rich -- Kenya." World Development, (October 1984). . "Labor and Poverty in Kenya." Oxford: Clarendon Press (forthcoming). Dutta, Bhaskar. "Industrial Wage Structures in India: A Survey." Employment and Rural Development Division Paper No. 61. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, May 1980. Gregory, Peter. "Economic Development and the Labor Market in Mexico." Draft book manuscript. January 1982. . "Economic Development and the Labor Market in Mexico." Employment and Rural Development Division Paper No. 70. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, August 1981. Krishna, Raj. "A Three Sector Time Series Model of the Labour Market in India." Draft. The World Bank: Country Policy Department, May 1983. . "The Growth of Aggregate Unemployment in India: Trends, Sources and Macro Policy Options." Draft. The World Bank: Country Policy Department, June 1983. Kumar, Dharma, and Krishnamurthy, J. "The Evolution of Labour Markets in India, 1857-1947." Draft. Employment and Rural Development Division Paper No. 72. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, May 1981. Lal, Deepak. Aspects of Indian Labor. Oxford: Clarendon Press (forthcoming). . "Cultural Stability and Economic Stagnation: India 1500 B.C.- 1800 -- Wage and Employment Trends and Structures." Draft. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, June 1981. . The Modern EquiLibrium. Oxford: Clarendon Press (forthcoming). . "The Real Effects of Stabilization and Structural Adjustment Policies." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 630, March 1984. . "ReaL Wages and Exchange Rates in the Philippines." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 604, April 1983. . "Real Wages Trends in Rural India -- 1880-1984." In P. Baldlera and T. N. Srinivasan (ed.) Poverty in India. Oxford (forthcoming). . "Wages and Employment in the Philippines." Employment and Rural Development Division Paper No. 57. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, October 1979. - 114 - Pfefferman, Guy Pierre, and Webb, Richard. "The Distribution of Income in Brazil." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 356, September 1979. Satyanarayana, Y. "Trends in Employment and Unemployment in India - An Analysis, Discussion and Compilation of Data." Draft. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, August 1980. . "Wage Trends in India: 1830 to 1976 - An Analysis, Discussion and Compilation of Data." Employment and Rural Development Division Paper No. 74. The World Bank: Development Economics Department, August 1980. Structure of Employment and Sources of Income by Socioeconomic Groups and Regions in Peru Ref. No. 672-40C This research aimed at acquiring basic knowledge of the behavior of households with regard to labor supply and income generation through a detailed study of the problem by concentrating on the Peruvian household as the unit of analysis. The study was intended as a complement at the micro level to the Peru component of an earlier research project on "Urban Labor Markets in Latin America" (Ref. No. 671-48 in this category). Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Programs Department I and Development Research Department -- Ulrich R. W. Thumm and Constantino P. Zluch, respectively, in collaboration with the Research Center of the Pacific University (Centro de Investigacion, Universidad del Pacifico), Peru. International Labor Migration in the Middle East and North Africa Region Ref. No. 672-95PC The aim of this preparatory exercise was to develop a research proposal on specific refinements in the model used in a previous study (Ref. No. 671-83, "Labor Migration from Pakistan and Bangladesh to the Middle East," completed in 1981). One objective was to improve the model's allocative mechanism that controls the flows of labor by country and category in order to enhance the model's analytical utility and to clarify its data collection and updating requirements. Responsibility: Europe, Middle East and North Africa Projects Department -- Ismail Serageldin. Labor Market Performance and Policies for Labor Absorption in Thailand Ref. No. 673-39P This proposal for collaborative research involving the Regional and Research Departments of the Bank (AEA and DRD) and the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) of Thailand will focus on the appropriate - 115 - strategies and options for employment absorption in Thailand, and will feed into the formulation of the Sixth Five-year Plan (1987-1991), in which the major issue will be employment. The project has strong institution-building components, with the aim of strengthening the capability for future employment planning in Thailand. This will be achieved through direct participation of staff in two divisions of the NESDB in the project (the Employment and manpower Planning Division and the Economic and Social Planning Division). The institution-building component extends to the National Statistical Office of Thailand (NSO) through collaboration on data gathering, with a substantial number of questions being added to two future rounds of the Labor Force Surveys for the project, in order to generate better information on labor market operations. It also extends to Thai Universities, from which a number of consultants will participate in the research. The project will seek to address the need for an economywide framework in order to analyze the medium term prospects for labor absorption and the impact of government policies taking account of all the interlinkages, as well as the importance of obtaining accurate information on labor market behaviors as a foundation for the exercise. Some of the micro studies in the project will focus on the operations of labor markets, given that previous research has been limited, or has led to widely different views on the behaviors (particularly concerning the rural labor market). Other studies will yield important estimates of the expected sectoral and locational pattern of labor absorption, which are needed for an accurate assessment of the medium term development in the employment situation. Responsibility: Development Research Department -- C. Sussangkarn and Arne Drud; and East Asia and Pacific Country Programs Department -- R. Pepper. The Real Exchange Rate and Labor Markets Ref. No. 673-48P With increasing regularity the exchange rate is being pointed out as one of the most important economic variables in developing countries. Inadequate exchange rate policies add considerable instability to the economic environment and, in some instance, have been responsible for major crises. Exchange rates problems, however, are often discussed independently of other economic policies. In particular, there has been a tendency to analyze exchange rate issues without taking into account the characteristics of the labor market. This research project seeks to address this gap in the research by clearly defining the issues, providing a detailed discussion of the current state of knowledge, developing a formal methodological approach to formulating exchange rate policy under different conditions and structures of labor markets and undertaking empirical analysis in three to five countries. Responsibility: Country Policy Department -- Armeane Choksi and Sebastian Edwards (consultant). The principal investigator will be Dr. Jacob Frenkel of the University of Chicago. - 116 - 8-C. Population, Health, and Nutrition Kenya: Health, Nutrition, Worker Productivity, and Child Development Studies Ref. No. 671-73C An earlier research project "Effects of Health and Nutrition Standards on Worker Productivity" (Ref. No. 671-15), carried out in 1976-77, investigated health and nutrition factors related to the productivity of road workers, as well as the relationship of parasitic infestation to the health and growth of children, in certain parts of Kenya. That research indicated that both caLoric undernutrition and anemia were common among road workers and that this affected work output. Separately, it was also demonstrated that roundworm infestations retard the growth of children. The present project, by the same group, has been undertaken to evaluate a number of possible public health interventions to address these problems. Responsibility: Population, Health, and Nutrition Department and Transportation and Water Department -- Alan Berg and Clell G. Harral, respectively. Primary researche-s were Michael C. Latham and Lani Stephenson Latham, CorneLl University, in association with the Rural Access Roads Programs, Ministry of Works (Kenya), and the Overseas Development Administration (United Kingdom). Reports Basta, Samir S., and Churchill, Anthony. "Iron Deficiency Anemia and the Productivity of Adult Males in Indonesia." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 175, April 1974. Basta, Samir S., and Karyadi, Darwin. "Nutrition and Health of Indonesian Construction Workers: Endurance and Anemia." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 152, April 1973. Basta, Samir S., and Latham, Michael. "The Relationship of Nutrition and Health to Worker Productivity in Kenya." Technical Memorandum No. 26. The World Bank: Transportation and Water Department, May 1977. Hall, Andrew. "Intestinal Parasitic Infections of Men in Four Regions of Rural Kenya." Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol. 76, no. 6 (1982):728-33. Latham, Lani; Latham, Michael C.; and Basta, Samir S. "The Nutritional and Economic Implications of Ascaris Infection in Kenya." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 271, September 1977. Latham, Michael C., et al. "A Comparative Study of the Nutritional Status, Parasitic Infections and Health of Male Roadworkers in Four Areas of Kenya." Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol. 76, no. 6 (1982):734-40. . "Nutritional Status, Parasitic Infections and Health of Roadworkers in 4 Areas of Kenya: Part 1 Kwale District -- Coastal Lowlands." East African Medical Journal (January 1983):2-10. - 117 - . "Parasitic Infections, Anaemia and Nutritional Status: A Study of Their Inter-relationships and the Effect of Prophylaxis and Treatment on Workers in Kwale District, Kenya." Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, vol. 77, no. 1 (1983):41-48. Latham, Michael C., and Stephenson, Lani. "Kenya Health, Nutrition, Worker Productivity and Child Development Studies, Final Report." The World Bank, January 1981 (being revised for publication). Stephenson, Lani S.; Crompton, D.W.T.; Latham, Michael: Arnold, Susan E.; and Jansen, A.A. "Evaluation of a Four-Year Project to Control Ascaris Infection in Children in Two Kenyan Villages." Journal of Tropical Pediatrics (June 1983). Health and Rural Development in Nepal Ref. No. 672-10C This project will examine data on health and nutrition from farm families in various Locations of Nepal's Terai and Hill regions. Links will be established between environmental background variables and health status, and between health and a broad range of outcomes. One aspect of the project will be to follow the progress of children who were of preschool age at the time of a 1978 survey of farm fam;lies in two rural districts of the Terai (see Ref. No. 671-49). This research will add to a growing literature on the relation between a child's mental and physical development. A second aspect of this research project will be to study the extent to which indoor cooking and heating fires contribute to chronic obstructive pulmonary disorders. Responsibility: Population, Health, and Nutrition Department - Dean T. Jamison, in collaboration with Peter R. Moock, Bal Gopal Baidya, Kathleen Hebbeler, Susan Horton, Joanne Leslie, Marlaine Lockheed, Dr. Mrigendra R. Pandey and the Cor PulmonaLe Project, Dr. Robert L. Parker, Rajendra P. Shrestha, Dr. Melvyn S. Tockman, Suan Ying, and other consultants. Reports Kartorell, R.; Leslie, J.; and Moock, P. R. "Characteristics and Determinants of Child Nutritional Status in Nepal." Population and Human Resources Division Discussion Paper. The World Bank, 1.982. Moock, P. R., and LesLie, J. "Childhood Malnutrition and Schooling in the Terai Region of Nepal." Population and Human Resources Division Discussion Paper. The World Bank, 1982. - 118 - Poverty, Fertility, and Human Resources in Indonesia Ref. No. 672-19C Between 1971 and 1976, a sharp reduction in fertility rates took place in Indonesia, mainly in Java and Bali at relatively low levels of income and social development, although these had been improving rapidly. Given that the Indonesian government has set an ambitious target for further reduction in fertility, two issues are of concern to it: how to maintain the momentum of the family planning program in these islands, and whether the success of the program in Java and Bali can be repeated in the Outer Islands. This research project aims at clarifying the salient population issues and at advancing the understanding of poverty in Indonesia. For the reseach on fertility, the initial focus will be on individual key relationships that will become building blocks for a more complete model of fertility behavior in Indonesia. The research on the issues of poverty will develop an analytical framework that will be based on a model of hous,nold decisionmaking concerning the allocation of household members' time, thei: incomes, and the consumption of various commodities, in which children appear as an argument in the household's utility function. Responsibility: Country Policy Department -- Oey Astra Meesook, in collaboration with Dov Chernichovsky of Ben-Gurion University, Israel, and with the Central Bureau of Statistics, Indonesia. Reports ChernichovFky, Dov, and Meesook, Oey Astra. "Female Labor Force Participation in Indonesia." Population and Human Resources Division Discussion Paper No. 81-57. The World Bank, October 1981. . "Income-Generating Characteristics of Indonesian Households." Mimeo. The World Bank: Country Policy Department, July 1984. ._. Patterns of Food Consumption and Nutrition in Indonesia." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 670, September 1984. . "School Enrollment in Indonesia." World Bank Staff Working Paper, No. 746, August 1985. . "Socioeconomic Correlates of Age at First Marriage in Indonesia." Mimeo. The World Bank: Country Policy Department, December 1983. 1983.. The Poverty in Indonesia: A Profile." World Bank StaZf Working Paper 671, September 1984. . "Trends in Consumption Levels and Poverty, Indonesia, 1970 to 1978." Mimeo. The World Bank: Country Policy Department, September 1983. . "Utilization of Primary Medical Services in Indonesia." Mimeo. The World Bank. March 1985. . "Regional Aspects of Family Planning and Fertility Behavior in Indonesia." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 462, May 1981. . "Urban-Rural Food and Nutrition Consumption Patterns in Indonesia." PHN Technical Note No. 85-5, Population Health and Nutriton Department, The World Bank, June 1985. - 119 - Meesook, Oey Astra. "Financing and Equity in the Social Sectors in Indonesia." World Bank Staff Working Paper No. 703, November 1984. Determinants of Fertility in Egypt: An Analysis of the Second Round of the Egyptian Fertility Survey Ref. No. 672-42 The research model proposed in this study goes beyond earlier theoretical and empirical work on economic models of fertility for developing countries by including husbands as well as wives in the determination of the demand for children and including data on income and employment as explanatory variables, which are not usually well captured in fertility surveys. The data for testing this model have been collected explicitly for this purpose in a collaboration between the World Bank and the World Fertility survey (WFS) and the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), Cairo (see Ref. No. 671-81 in this category). The source of these data is a nationwide sample in Egypt of 8,900 women and a subsample of 2,300 husbands in 100 clusters. In addition to policy variables, the analysis will explore the relationship between wages and employment opportunities for women and children and fertility, as well as the effect of family income on both the biological supply and the demand for children. Responsibility: Population, Health, and Nutrition Department - Susan H. Cochrane, in collaboration with Richard A. Easterlin and Eileen Crimmins of the University of Southern California, and M. Ali Khan of The Johns Hopkins University (consultants). The major institutions participating in the project are the World Fertility Survey, London, and the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, Cairo. The Determinants of Fertility in Rural Bangladesh Ref. No. 672-60C The Government of Bangladesh has committed a substantial amount of its limited resources to its population program in an effort to reduce the country's population growth rate, which is 2.6 percent a year, according to the 1981 census. An apparent stumbling block is the lack of adequate information on what socioeconomic factors influence fertility and how fertility is regulated in Bangladesh. The purpose of this research project is to provide this policy-relevant information. The study's focus is on the relationship between poverty and fertility in rural Bangladesh. Particular attention is given to earnings from different sources, expenditures and savings, women's participation in the labor force, and expenditures on child education and health, which may reflect - 120 - a conscious choice between having many poorly educated and poorly nourished children or fewer, more privileged children. The work for this project is completed and a completion report has been submitted for review. Responsibility: Population, Health, and Nutrition Department - K. C. Zachariah with assistance from Rashid Faruqee. The Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) collected the data in several rounds, starting in 1976. Health Care Demand and Resource Mobilization: The Case of Peru Ref. No. 673-38 This project will examine the impact of user fees on the demand for health services, using Peru as a case study. The study will address such questions as: How would the utilization of health services be affected by new fee policies? Would users shift from some types of health care providers to others? Would some user-groups (defined, for example, by income-level or by distribution of illness) fare better or worse than others? Would there be differences by type of health service (for instance, curative compared to preventive)? How much in additional resources would be mobilized? The analysis will also explore the role of other factors influencing the demand for health care, including the quality, perceived or actual, of services available, taking into account traditional health practitioners, as well as modern public and private providers; costs other than fees (time and travel costs); health status, based mainly on reported symptoms; socioeconomic leiel; environmental conditions in the home and community; and education. A household survey covered over 12,000 households, selected on a cluster-sampling, stratified random basis. The sample was designed to be representative not only for the nation as a whole but also for 17 regions of Peru covering urban and rural areas in the coastal, mountain, and jungle zones. Responsibility: Population, Health, and Nutrition Department -- David de Ferranti and or the Development Research Department - Jacques van der Gaag, in collaboration with Avi Dor (consultant), Philip Musgrove (Pan- American Health Organization), and staff and consultants of USAID. Cooperating Peruvian institutions include the Ministry of Health and the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica. The Second Amman Population and Health Survey Ref. No. 673-45 This study is a follow-up survey of slum areas in Amman, Jordan, for which baseline surveys were carried out in 1980-81 in connection with the Jordan First Urban Development Project (UPDI). Three of these areas were - 121 - subsequently upgraded, and two were not. In addition to evaluating the impact of the upgrading project, this study seeks to develop simple and low-cost techniques for surveying the health status of populations of low-income neighborhoods as an aid to selecting future upgrading sites. It hopes to develop programs to deal with specific health problems and to evaluate the efficacy of health programs. The survey should provide a data base that may be used for further studies of the Amman upgrading projects and health-related issues. In addition, the study provides an opportunity to secure more accu- rate measures than are often available at the family level, and also to measure the changes which have occurred over time as a result of different degrees of policy intervention. Responsibility: Europe, Middle East, and North Africa Urban Projects Department -- Mr. Frank Mitchell, Ms. A. Elwan, and Dr. Julie DaVanzo (con- sultant). Dr. Hisham Zagha, Director of the Urban Development Department of Amman Municipality, the agency responsible for carrying out the First Urban Development Project, will direct the project. The principal co-investigators are D. Leila Bisharat (Amman office of the Population Council) and Dr. Seteny Shami (Yarmouk University, Jordan). Reports Population Council (in cooperation with the Urban Development Department). "A Baselir. Health and Population Assessment for the Upgrading Areas of Amman: A Report to the Municipality of Amman." 1982. Bamberger, Michael et. al. "Evaluation of Sites and Services Projects: The Experience from Lusaka, Zambia." Water Supply and Urban Development Department, World Bank, Washington, D.C. 1982. Salmen, Lawrence F. "Participant-Observer Evaluation of Urban Projects in La Paz, Bolivia and Guayaquil, Ecuador." Water Supply and Urban Development Department, World Bank, Washington, D.C. 1983. Tekce, Belgin, and Shorter, Frederic. "Socio-economic Determinants of Child Mortality and Intermediary Processes: Findings from a Study of Squatter Settlements in Amman." Prepared for the Workshop on Child Survival: Strategies for Research, Bellagio, 1983, published in Population and Development Review, Vol. 10, Supplement, 1984. Potential for Cost Recovery in Health and Family Planning, Gambia Ref. No. 673-58P This research proposal is closely tied to the objectives of another Bank-supported population, health and nutrition project under preparation in The Gambia and seeks to contribute to it with the findings of this study. The study has the following objectives: (a) To provide and analyze information on the demand for, ability and willingness to pay for, and access to private and public health and family planning services, based on a survey of households (covering expenditures and utilization) and of providers (covering prices and quality of services). Such - 122 - information would be useful for initial project design (especially to recommend a public pricing structure); and to provide a baseline for evaluation of the project's success in improving access to services, improving the financing situation in health, and reducing morbidity and mortality. (b) To finance a study of the administrative and financial costs of collecting fees at various levels and under various conditions. Information on collection costs would complement infnrmation on the benefits of fees in evaluating the justification for fees overall. In addition, the household information will provide baseline data permitting systematic evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of general education and of specific mass education drives (through radio, for example) on behavioral change in health, nutrition and family planning. ResponsibiLity: Population, Health and Nutrition Department - Nancy Birdsall. Nutrition and H-alth Status in Rural Areas of Burkina Faso Ref. No. 673-75 This project will analyze data on food consumption, morbidity, and anthropometric measurements of a sample of rural households, and produce a report describing the nutrition and health situation in the rural, semi-arid part of Burkina Faso. The report will be based on one of the first household- level surveys of nutrition and health in that country. The data was collected under another research project, "Capital Accumulation, Formal and Informal Credit Markets in West Africa" (Ref. No. 673-36), in collaboration with the International Crops Research InstituLe for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). From July 1982 to May 1984, an anthropol- ogist at ICRISAT-Burkina Faso collected data from 150 households in six vil- lages as part of ICRISAT's village level studies. This study included data on food consumption, self-reported morbidity, water consumption, and heights and weights. This was designed to complement collection of data on farm inputs and outputs, prices, market sales, input and food purchases and off-farm labor use being collected by an economist. The combination of production, consumption, nutrition and morbidity data for the same households makes such data particularly valuable. There are few data sources for Africa that allow accurate assessment of health and nutritional status as linked to farm assets, income and household consumption. Responsibility: Population, Health and Nutrition Department - Nancy Birdsall. in collaboration with John Strauss of Yale University (consultant). - 123 - IX. Other World Bank Economic Review Ref. No. 673-57 This publication is one of a number of new Research Program initiatives designed to further the dissemination of the Bank's research activities. The World Bank Economic Review is to be a professional journal of high standard aiming for worldwide readership among development professionals in government departments, private business, financial institutions, international agencies, universities and development research institutions. The Review will publish articles by Bank staff and consultants and is intended to serve as a principal outlet for the dissemination of Bank-sponsored research, policy analyses and other studies in economic development. This journal, as well as the two other new research publications, will be managed by the Research Administration Unit, Economics and Research Staff. Responsibility: Economics and Research Staff -- Mark Leiserson is the Managing Editor. The World Bank Research Observer Ref. No. 673-61 The World Bank Research Observer, a new publication from the Research Administration Unit, will seek to keep non-specialist readers inside and outside the Bank informed about economic research currently being undertaken within the Bank and about developments in special areas of economics relevant for development policy. Each issue of the Observer will contain a lead article focused on an area of Bank-sponsored research and three to four survey articles on special topics written by experts in the field. In addition, the Observer will keep readers informed of Bank-sponsored conferences and seminars, and new and forthcoming publications. Responsibility: Economics and Research Staff Research Administration Unit - Oey A. Meesook. George Psacharopoulos is the Editor. Research News Ref. No. 673-71 Research News is a newsletter which comes out four times a year. It is not a new publication, but rather a successor of the old Research News that contains considerable changes in substance and presentation. With a circulation of 17,000, it is journalistic in style and format. Research News provides an update on initiatives taken by the Bank research administration as well as descriptions of newly approved research projects and brief reports, known as Research Briefs, on ongoing and completed research. It also contains - 124 - summary abstracts of completed research undertakings and highlights from recent selected Bank publications. The first issue of the new Research News made its appearance in the summer of 1985. Responsibility: Economics and Research Staff, Research Administration Unit -- Oey A. Meesook, and Development Research Department - Bruce Ross-Larson. - 125 - Numerical Index Ref. No. Title 670-07C The Determinants of Railway Traffic, Freight Transport, and the Choice of Transport Modes 670-23C Scope for Capital-Labor Substitution in the Mechanical Engineering Industry 670-24 Programming in the Manufacturing Sector 670-26C Substitution of Labor and Equipment in Civil Construction 670-27 Highway Design Maintenance Standards Study (Phase II) 670-87 Industrial Policies and Economic Integration in West Africa 671-02C Population Growth and Rural Poverty 671-35C Export Incentives in Developing Countries 671-44C Agricultural Innovation and Rural Development 671-47C Strategic Planning to Accommodate Rapid Growth in Cities of Developing Countries-"The City Study" 671-49C Education and Rural Development in Nepal and Thailand 671-55C International Study of the Retention of Literacy and Numeracy 671-57C Distribution of Income Through the Extended Family System 671-66 Research Support for the World Development Report 671-67C Effects of Increased Imports of Manufactured Goods from Developing Countries 671-68 Key Institutions and Expansion of Manufactured Exports 671-73C Kenya: Health, Nutrition, Worker Productivity, and Child Development Studies 671-78C Education and Other Determinants of Farm Household Response to External Stimuli 671-80C Evaluation of Food Distribution Schemes 671-82C Penetration of Japanese, Canadian and Australian Markets by LDC Manufacturers - 126 - 671-84C Wage and Employment Trends and Structures in Developing Countries 671-89C India: Impact of Agricultural Development on Employment and Poverty (Phase II) 672-02C The Construction of Econometric Models for the Supply of Perennials: A Case Study of Natural Rubber and Tea in Sri Lanka 672-09C Mass Media and Rural Development 672-1OC Health and Rural Development in Nepal 672-13C National Spatial Policies: Brazil 672-16 Reduced Information Methods of International Real Income Comparisons 672-18C Food Policy Analysis for Practitioners 672-19C Poverty, Fertility, and Human Resources in Indonesia 672-21C Studies on Brazilian Distribution and Growth 672-25AC The Development of a SAM Basis for Planning and Modeling in Egypt 672-29C The Impact of Agricultural Extension: A Case Study of the Training and Visit Method in Haryana, India 672-30 Production and Distributional Implications of Dairy Development Projects: Effects on Income, Consumption and Nutrition of the Poor 672-32C The Direction of Developing Countries' Trade: Patterns, Trends and Implications 672-33C Agricultural Trade Patterns in an Expanding European Community and Their Effects on Tunisia 672-36A Protection and Incentive Systems in the Turkish Manufacturing Sector- 672-39C Market and Agricultural Policy Determinants of Rural Incomes 672-40C Structure of Employment Sources of Income by Socioeconomic Groups and Regions in Peru 672-42 Determinants of Fertility in Egypt: An Analysis of the Second Round of the Egyptian Fertility Survey 672-44AC Experimental Support Unit for Work on Industrial Incentives and Comparative A:vantage (INCA) - 127 - 672-45C Diversified Secondary Curriculum Study (DiSCuS) 672-46 Housing Demand and Housing Finance in Developing Countries (Phase I) 672-47C The Development and Extension of Macromodeling in Relation to Thailand 672-48 The Acquisition of Technological Capability 672-49C Development Paths for Oil Exporters: A Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis 672-50AC Canal Command Model for Project Design and System Operation in the Indus Basin 672-57C Income Formation and Expenditures of Poor Urban Households 672-58 An Evaluation of Industrial Location Policies for Urban & 672-91 Deconcentration (Phase I & II) 672-59C Participant-Observer Evaluation of Urban Projects 672-60C The Determinants of Fertility in Rural Bangladesh 672-63C Development and Application of a Minimum Standard Energy Demand Model for Developing Countries 672-64C National and State Analysis of Indian Urban Development 672-65 Economic Consequences of the Coffee Boom in East Africa: A Comparative Analysis o! Kenya and Tanzania 672-66C Econometric Modeling of Investment and Saving in Korea 672-67C Conditions for Sustained Farm Mechanization 672-70C The Welfare Implications of Eliminating Energy Subsidies in Indonesia 672-71C Tax and Contractual Arrangements for Exploiting Natural Resources 672-72C Demand for and Willingness to Pay for Services in Mali 672-73C Evaluation and Estimation of National Accounts Statistics of Centrally Planned Economies 672-74C Adjustment in Oil-Importing Countries 672-75 Cross-Country Analysis of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa - 128 - 672-80AC A Manual of Agricultural Sector Programming Models 672-81C Development of a Model for Urban Land and Infrastructure Pricing, Costing, and Desigi. 672-82C Agricultural Household Models: Extensions and Policy Implications 672-83 Pricing and Taxing Transport Fuels in Developing Countries 672-84C Direct and Indirect Effects of Irrigation: Matar Taluka, Cujarat, India 672-85 Liberalization with Stabilization in the Southern Cone 672-86C Productivity Change in Infant Industry (Phase I) 672-87AC A Computable General Equlibrium Model for the Ivory Coast 672-88PC The Nutritional Effects of Projects Leading to Increases in Small Farmers' Marketed Surpluses 672-90PC The Effectiveness of Family Planning Programs 672-91 An Evaluation of Industrial Location Policies for Urban Deconcentration (Phase II) 672-92AC Book on Modern Tax Theory for Developing Countries 672-93 Returns to Investment in School Quality in Rural Brazil 672-94PC Small-Scale Cement Study 672-95PC International Labor Migration in the Middle East and North Africa Region 672-96PC Resource Mobilization and the Household Economy in Kenya 672-97PC The Sequencing and Phasing of Trade Liberalization Policies (see 673-31) 673-01 Assessment of Country Foreign Borrowing Strategies 673-03PC India: Study of Industrial Incentive System 673-02P The Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing (see Ref. No. 673-64) 673-04 Managing Agricultural Development in Africa: A Comparative Analysis of Six Countries 673-05 Demand for Personal Travel in Developing Countries - 129 - 673-06 A General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS), (Phase III) 673-07AC Agricultural Pricing Policy in Senegal 673-08A Agricultural Pricing Policy in Senegal 673-09C Workshop on the Effects of Externalities on the Efficiency of Irrigated Agriculture in Developing Countries 673-13 Analysis of the Tax Systems in Developing Countries: Applications to Pakistan and Mexico 673-14 Collabor -tive Research with China (Phase II) 673-15C Supply Response of Aggregate Crops Output 673-16C Agricultural Mechanization in Africa: Revicw and Prospects 673-17PC Singapore Area Licensing Scheme 673-18PC Export Instability and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa 673-20PC Follow-up Impact Evaluation of the First Colombian Urban Project 673-21 Relative Efficiency of Public and Private Expenditures on Social Services in Chile (Small Study) 673-22 The Distribution of Welfare in the Ivory Coast 673-23AC Social-Accounting-Matrix-Based Computable General Equilibr;= Model for Cameroon 673-25P Pricing in Large-Scale Manufacturing 673-26 Education and Informal Sector Employment 673-27 Sociological Aspects of Dairy Cooperative Development Projects (Small Study) 673-28 Review of Macromodeling 673-29P Urban Infrastructure and Industrial Productivity in West African Countries 673-30 National Low Income Housing Project in Ecuador (Small Study) 673-31 The Timing and Sequencing of a Trade Liberalization Policy 671-32 Conference on Debt and the DeveLoping Countries - 130 - 673-33 Land Title Security and Farm Productivity: A Case Study of Thailand 673-34 Cross-Country Analysis of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (Phase II) 673-35 Agricultural Investment, Infrastructure and Rural Financial Markets 673-36 Capital Accumulation and Formal and Informal Credit Markets in West Africa 673-37 European Trade Policies and the South 673-38 Health Care Demand and Resource Mobilization: The Case of Peru 673-39P Labor Market Performance and Policies for Labor Absorption in Thailand 673-40 World Bank-UNCTAD Studies of Non-Tariff Barriers 673-41 Capital Market Regulations: An Economic Analysis of Their Impact 673-42 Setting an Agenda for Research Priorities in Sub-Saharan Africa 673-43P The Political Economy of Poverty, Equity and Growth (See Ref. No. 673-73) 673-44 Tree Crop Development and Support Programs: Project Design and Cost Recovery 673-45 The Second Amman Population and Health Survey 673-46 Seminar Workshop on Planning and Modeling in Egypt 673-47P Comparative Research on Organizational Options for Canal Irrigation 673-48P The Real Exchange Rate and Labor Markets 673-49 Macroeconomic Study of Aid and Development 673-50P Non-Economic Objectives as Determinants of Public Enterprises Deficits in Sub-Saharan Africa 673-51 Patterns of Development: 1950-80 673-52 Bank Seminar Series on "The Frontiers of Economics" 673-53 Conference on Small-Scale Enterprise Development in Delhi 673-54P Commodity Supply Response in Sub-Saharan Africa 673-55 Distribution Effects of Government Policies in Egypt - 131 - 673-56P Growth, Public Finance, and Monitorable Medium-Term Programs for Debt Restructuring 673-57 World Bank Economic Review 673-58P Potential for Cost Recovery in Health and Family Planning, Gambia 673-59 Trade Policy, Technological Transfer and Quality Control 673-60P Common Property Resource Management Issues for the Sudano-Sahelian Zone of Sub-Saharan Africa 673-61 The World Bank Research Observer 673-62 The Effects of Fiscal Deficits in LDCs 673-63P Macroeconomic Policies and Growth in the Long Run (preproject brief) 673-64 The Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing 673-65P Monetary and Fiscal Policies and Financial Institutions in Socialist Countries 673-66 State Intervention in the Promotiuon of the Traded Goods Sector: Japan 673-67 The Role of Risk in Sahelian Agriculture 673-68P Rent Control in Developing Countries 673-69 A Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Different Types of Secondary Education in Shanghai MunicipaLity, Peoples Republic of China 673-70 Performance Indicators and Policy Instruments in the Context of Medium-Term Programs for Debt-Restructuring 673-71 Research News 673-72 International Comparison of Real Output Levels in Manufacturing 673-73 The Political Economy of Poverty, Equity and Growth (Comparative Study) 673-74P Small-Holder Tree Farming and Fuelwood Crisis 673-75 Nutrition and Health Status in Rural Areas of Burkina Faso 673-77 Study of the Impact of Irrigation on Production in India - 132 - Appendix Table 1: RESEARCH SUPPORT BUDGET FINANCIAL STATUS OF ONGOING AND RECENTLY COWLETED PROJECTS 1/ (Current U.S. S'OO0) Authorized Project Department Total FY85 FY86 and Category Title Code Responsible Authorization 2/ Actuals 3/ Beyond 2/ 1. Development Policy and Planning l.A. Inccme Distribution Studies on Brazilian Distribution 672-21C CP`/DRD 83.8 0.0 0.0 and Growth Income Formation and Expenditures of 672-57C WUD 90.3 0.0 0.0 Poor Urban Households Resource Mobilization and the Household 672-96PC WUD/CPD 9.8 0.0 0.0 Economy in Kenya The Distribution of Welfare in the 673-22 DRD 508.0 128.4 232.0 Ivory Coast Monetary and Fiscal Policies and Financial 673-65P CPD 7.0 0.0 7.0 Institutions in Socialist Countries The Political Economy of Poverty, Equity 673-73 VPERS 2,493.0 28.3 2,464.7 and Growth (Comparative Study) Sub-total: 3,191.9 156.7 2,703.7 I.B. Planning, Growth, and Country Economic Analysis Research Support for the World Development 671-66C EPD 726.9 0.0 0.0 Report Real Product & Purchasing Power Comparisons 671-91C EPO 116.2 0.0 0.0 Reduced Information Methods of 672-16 EPD 238.6 0.3 20.1 International Real Income Comparisons The Development of a SAM Basis for 672-25AC DRD/EM1/IND 110.0 0.0 0.0 Planning and Modeling in Egypt - 133 Appendix Table 1: RESEARCH SUPPORT BUDGET FINANCIAL STATUS OF ONGOING AND RECENTLY COMPLETED PROJECTS 1/ (Current U.S. 5'000) Authorized Project Department Total FY85 FY86 and Category Title Code Responsible Authorization 2/ Actuals 3/ Beyond 2/ The Development and Extension of 672-47C DRD/AEA/EPD 194.4 16.2 0.0 Macromodeling in Relation to Thailand Development Paths for Oil Exporters: 672-49C DRD 197.0 49.0 0.0 A Long-Run Macroeconomic Analysis Economic Consequences of the Coffee 672-65 EAl 215.2 12.0 68.7 Boom in East Africa: A Comparative Analysis of Kenya and Tanzania Econometric Modeling of Investment 672-66C AEA 18.2 0.0 0.0 and Saving in Korea Tax and Contractual Arrangements for 672-71C DRD 73.5 1.6 0.0 Exploiting Natural Resources Evaluation and Estimation of National 672-73C EPr 118.4 0.0 0.0 A-counts Statistics for Centrally Planned Economies Cross-Country Analysis of Growth 672-75 WANVP 18.5 0.0 0.1 in Sub-Saharan Africa A Computable General Equilibrium Model 672-87AC WA2/IND 34.3 0.8 0.0 for the Ivory Coast Book on Modern Tax Theory for Developing 672-92AC DRD 63.2 31.6 0.0 Countries A General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) 673-06 ORD 151.3 40.9 34.3 (Phase ill) Analysis of the Tax Systems in Developing 673-13 DRD/CPD 353.0 148.7 107.9 Countries: Applications to Pakistan & Mexico Collaborative Research with China (Phase II) 673-14 AEA/DRD 245.0 76.7 40.1 Relative Efficiency of Public and Private 673-21 LCI 20.0 0.0 0.0 Expenditures in Social Services in Chile (Small Study) Social-Accounting-Matrix-Based Computable 673-23AC WA2/DRD 50.0 (0.9) 0.0 - 134 - Appendix Table 1: RESEARCH SUPPORT BUDGET FINANCIAL STATUS OF ONGOING AND RECENTLY COMPLETED PROJECTS 1/ (Curr.nt U.S. S'O0O) Authorized Project Department Total FY85 FY86 and Category Title Code Responsible Authorization 2/ Actuals 3/ Beyond 2/ General Equilibrium Model for Cameroon 673-28C DRD 13.7 0.0 0.0 Review of Macromodelling Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (Phase II) 673-34P WANVP 16.0 (0.1) 14.0 Setting an Agenda for Research Priorities 673-42 OPS 87.0 80.6 6.4 in Sub-Saharan Africa The Political Economy of Poverty, Equity 673-43P VPERS 55.0 60.9 0.0 and Growth Seminar Workshop on Planning and Modeling 673-46 EMI 6.1 4.8 1.3 in Egypt Non-Economic Objectives as Determinants of 673-50P PPD 10.0 11.9 0.0 Public Enterprises Deficits in Sub-Saharan Africa Patterns of Development 1950-80 673-51 EPD 48.0 28.1 19.9 Bank Seminar Series on "The Frontiers of 673-52 CPD 19.2 6.0 13.2 Economics" Commodity Supply Response in Sub-Saharan 673-54P EPD 20.0 12.1 7.9 Africa Distribution Effects of Government Policies 673-55 EMI 7.0 7.0 0.0 in Egypt The Effects of Fiscal Deficits in LDCs 673-62 WUD 47.8 0.0 47.8 Macroeconomic Policies and Growth in the 673-63P VPERS 51.5 17.6 33.9 Long run (preproject brief) International Comparison of Real Output 673-72 EPD 49.9 6.0 43.9 Levels in Manufacturing Sub-total: 3374.9 611.8 459.5 Total Section 1: 6566.8 768.5 3163.2 - 135 - Appendix Table 1: RESEARCH SUPPORT BUDGET FINANCIAL STATUS OF ONGOING AND RECENTLY COMPLETED PROJECTS 1/ (Current U.S. S'000) Authorized Project Department Total FY85 FY66 and Category Title Code Responsible Authorization 2/ Actuals 3/ Beyond 2/ II. International Trade and Finance Export Incentives in Developing Countries 671-35C ORD 179.0 0.0 0.0 Key Institutions and Expansion of 671-68C ASP 87.7 9.8 0.0 Manufactured Exports The Direction of Developing Countries' 672-32C EPD 186.6 5.3 0.0 Trade: Patterns, Trends and Implications Agricultural Trade Patterns in an 672-33C CPD 196.2 32.1 0.0 Expanding European Community and their Effects on Tunisia Liberalization with Stabilization in 672-85 DRD/LCN 374.6 168.6 0.0 the Southern Cone The Sequencing and Phasing of Trade 672-97PC CPD 18.5 0.0 0.0 Liberalization Policies Assessment of Country Foreign Borrowing 673-01 CPD 400.0 182.3 95.0 Strategies Study on Export Instability and Growth in 673-1SPC WANVP/EPD 15.0 6.7 0.0 Sub-Saharan Africa The Timing and Sequencing of a Trade 673-31 CPD 2330.0 958.5 1057.0 Liberalization Policy Conference on International Debt and the 673-32 ORD 46.2 12.3 0.1 Developing Countries Europemn Trade Policies and the South 673-37 DRD 50.0 3.0 47.0 World Bank-UNCTAD Studies of NTBs 673-40 DRD 18.4 16.1 2.3 Capital Market Regulation: An Economic 673-41 VPERS 5.0 10.0 0.0 Analysis of the Impact Macroeconomic Study of Aid and Development 673-49 DRD 35.0 6.1 28.9 - 136- Appendix Table 1: RESEARCH SUPPORT BUDGET FINANCIAL STATUS OF ONGOING AND RECENTLY COMPLETED PROJECTS 1/ (Current U.S. 5'000) Authorized Project Department Total FY85 FY86 and Category Title Code Responsible Authorization 2/ Actuals 3/ Beyond 2/ Growth, Public Finance and Monitorable 673-56P EPD 6.0 6.0 0.0 Medium-Term Programs for Debt Restructuring Trade Policy, Technological Transfer and 673-59 CPD 82.5 28.2 54.3 Quality Control Japanese State Intervention in the 673-66 CPD 29.0 0.9 28.1 Promotion of the Traded Goods Sector Performance Indicators and Policy instru- 673-70 EPD 45.3 2.5 42.8 ments in the Context of Medium-Term Programs for Debt-Restructuring Total Section II: 4105.0 1448.4 1355.5 Ill. Agriculture and Rural Development Agricultural Innovation & Rural Development 671-44C AGR 69.7 0.0 0.0 Distribution of Income through the 671-57C EM2/WA2 167.9 0.0 0.0 Extended Family System Evaluation of Food Distribution Schemes 671-50C AGR 88.6 0.0 0.0 India: Impact of Agricultural Development 671-89C DRD 512.7 73.7 0.0 on Employment and Poverty (Phase II) The Construction of Econometric Models for 672-02C DRD 128.7 0.4 0.0 the Supply of Perennials: A Case Study of Natural Rubber and Tea in Sri Lanka Food Policy Analysis for Practitioners 672-18C AGR 63.0 0.0 0.0 The Impact of Agricultural Extension: 672-29C AGR/ASP 199.7 47.8 0.0 A Case Study of the Training and Visit Method in Haryana, India - 137 - Appendix Table 1: RESEARCH SUPPORT BUDGET FINANCIAL STATUS OF ONGOING AND RECENTLY COMPLETED PROJECTS 1/ (Current U.S. S'000) Authorized Project Department Total FY85 FY86 and Category Title Code Responsible Authorization 2/ Actuals 3/ Beyond 2/ Production & Distributional Implications 672-30 ASP 245.0 99.3 18.7 of Dairy Development Projects: Effects on Income, Consumption and Nutrition of the Poor Market and Agricultural Policy Determinants 672-39C AGR 203.8 22.0 0.0 of Rural Incomes Canal Command Model for Project Design & 672-50AC DRD/AGR 63.0 0.0 0.0 System Operation in the Indus Basin Conditions for Sustained Farm Mechanization 672-67C AGR 132.0 0.0 0.0 A Manual of Agriculture Sector 672-80AC AGR/DRD 68.6 30.2 0.0 Programming Models Agr:cultural Household Models: 672-82C CPD/EAN 20.0 16.4 0.0 Extensions and Policy Implications Direct and Indirect Effects of Irrigation: 672-84C AGR/ASP 78.2 7.5 0.0 Matar Taluka, Gujarat, India The Political Economy of Agricultural 673-02P DRD/OPS 70.0 .J.7 0.3 Pricing Managing African Agricultural Development: 673-04 DRD 566.0 160.7 283.3 Lessons from the Tanzanian Experience Agricultural Pricing Policy in Eastern 673-07AC CPD/EAN 33.1 0.0 0.0 Africa Agricultural Pricing Policy in Senegal 673-OAC AGR/WA2 34.0 13.3 0.0 Workshop on the Effects of Externalities on 673-09C AGR 20.0 0.0 0.0 the Efficiency of Irrigated Agriculture in Developing Countries Supply Response of Aggregate Crops Output 673-15C AGR/EPD 3.2 21.8 0.0 Agricultural Mechanization in Africa: 673-16C AGR/EAN 104.3 0.6 0.0 Review and Prospects - 138 - Appendix Table 1: RESEARCH SUPPORT BUDGET FINANCIAL STATUS OF ONGOING AND RECENTLY COMPLETED PROJECTS I/ (Current U.S. S'000) Authorized Project Department Total FY85 FY86 and Category Title Code Responsible Authorization 2/ Actuals 3/ Beyond 2/ Sociological Aspects of Dairy Cooperative 673-27C ASP 20.0 15.1 0.0 Development Projects (Small Study) Land Title Security and Farm Productivity: 673-33 AGR 231.7 90.0 124.4 A Case Study of Thailand Agricultural Investment, Infrastructure 673-35 AGR 346.0 90.1 250.6 and Rural Financial Intermediation Capital Accumulation and Formal and 673-36 AGR 50.0 27.7 4.8 Informal Credit Markets in Rural West - - Africa Tree Crop Development and Support Program: 673-44 CPD 25.0 22.7 2.3 Pr-oject Design and Cost Recovery Comparative Research on Organizational 673-47P AGR 15.7 13.4 2.3 Options for Canal Irrigation Common Property Resource Management Issues 673-60P AGR 15.0 28.7 0.0 for the Sudan-Sahelian Zone of Sub-Saharan Africa The Political Economy of Agricultural 673-64 DRD 2544.2 263.4 2280.8 Pricing Policies (Comparative Study) The Role of Risk in Sahelian Agriculture 673-67 WAP 49.0 4.6 44.4 Small-Holder Tree Farming and Fuelwood 673-74P AGR 19.0 19.0 Crisis Total Section III: 6219.1 1110.4 3030.9 IV. Industry Scope for Capital-Labor Substitution in 670-23C DRD 128.1 0.0 0.0 the Mechanical Engineering Industry - 139 - Appead Ix Table 1: RESEARCH SUPPORT BUDGET FINANCIAL STATUS OF ONGOING AND.RECENTLY COMPLETED PROJECTS 1/ (Current U.S. S'OOO) Authorized Project Department Total FY85 FY86 and Category Title Code Responsible Authorization 2/ Actuals 3/ Beyond 2/ Programming In the Manufacturing Sector 670-24C DRD/EM2 252.6 0.0 0.0 Industrial Policies and Economic 670-87C DRD 94.2 0.0 0.0 Integration in Western Africa A Statistical Analysis of the Efficiency 672-12C CPD 112.0 0.0 0.0 of the Indonesian Manufacturing Sector Protection and Incentive Systems in 672-36AC EM2/DRD 75.9 0.0 0.0 the Turkish Manufacturing Sector Experimental Support Unit for Work on 672-44AC IND 264.5 10.9 0.0 Industrial Incentives and Comparative Advantage (INCA) The Acquisition of Technological Capability 672-48 DRD 359.0 102.9 17.4 Productivity Change in Infant Industry 672-86C IND 165.7 59.1 0.0 (Phase I) Small-Scale Cement Study 672-94PC IND 14.5 0.0 0.0 India: Study of Industrial Incentive 673-03PC ASA/IND 10.0 0.0 0.0 System Pricing in Large Scale Manufacturing 673-25PC IND 20.0 0.7 0.0 Conference on Small-Scale Enterprise 673-53 DRD 7.5 7.8 0.0 Total Section IV: 1504.0 181.4 17.4 V. Transportation, Water, and Telecommunications Substitution of Labor and Equipment in 670-26C TRP 1001.1 0.0 0.0 Civil Construction Highway Design Maintenance Standards 670-27 TRP 1280.1 58.5 2.9 Study (Phase II) - 140 - Appendix Table 1: RESEARCH SUPPORT BUDGET FINANCIAL STATUS OF ONGOING AND RECENTLY COMPLETED PROJECTS 1/ (Current U.S. S'000) Authorized Project Department Total FY85 FY86 and Category Title Code Responsible Authorization 2/ Actuals 3/ Beyond 2/ The Determinants of Railway Traffic, 672-07C TRP 70.0 0.0 0.0 Freight Transport, and the Choice of Transport Modes Demand for Personal Travel in Developing 673-05 TRP/DRD 139.9 39.0 38.6 Countries Total Section V: 2491.1 97.5 41.5 VI. Energy The Development and Application of a 672-63C ASA 105.1 6.8 0.0 Minimum Standard Energy Demand Model for Developing Countries The Welfare Implications of Eliminating 672-70C CPD 69.0 0.5 0.0 Energy Subsidies in Indonesia Adjustment in Oil-Importing Countries 672-74C DRD 168.6 80.2 0.0 Pricing and Taxing Transport Fuels 672-83 TRP/DRD 188.2 48.5 60.9 in Developing Countries Total Section VI: 530.9 136.0 60.9 VII. Urbanization and Regional Development Strategic Planning to Accommodate Rapid 671-47C DRD/WUD 1043.5 0.0 0.0 Growth in Cities of Developing Countries ("The City Study") National Spatial Policies: Brazil 672-13C WUD 430.6 0.0 0.0 Housing Demand and Housing Finance in 672-46 WUD 366.4 111.9 49.9 Developing Countries (Phase 1) - 141 - Appendix Table 1: RESEARCH SUPPORT BUDGET FINANCIAL STATUS OF ONGOING AND RECENTLY COMPLETED PROJECTS 1/ (Current U.S. 5'000) Authorized Project Department Total FY85 FY86 and Category Title Code Responsible Authorization 2/ Actuals 3/ Beyond 2/ An Evaluation of Industrial Location 672-58 WUD 48.0 3.4 0.0 Policies for Urban Deconcentration (Phase 1) Participant-Observer Evaluation of Urban 672-59C PPD/DRD 266.0 60.6 0.0 Projects National and State Analysis of Indian 672-64C WUD 128.4 12.1 0.0 Urban Development Development of a Model for Urban Land & 672-SIC ASP 95.9 0.0 0.0 Infrastructure Pricing, Costing, & Design An Evaluation of Industrial Location 672-91 WUD 265.6 79.8 29.3 Policies for Urban Deconcentration (Phase II) Singapore Area Licensing Scheme 673-17PC WUD 15.8 0.0 0. Follow-up Impact Evaluation of the First 673-20PC WUD/LCP 8.6 0.0 0.0 Colombian Urban Project Contribution of Urban Infrastructure to 673-29PC WAP/WUD 23.6 (1.6) 0.0 Industrial Productivity National Low Income Housing Project 673-30 LCP/WUD 20.0 13.0 0.0 in Ecuador (Small Study) Rent Control in Developing Countries 673-68P WUD 8.8 1.9 6.9 Total Section VII: 2721.2 281.1 86.1 VIII. Population and Human Resources VIII.A. Education Education and Rural Development in Nepal 671-49C PHN 156.4 0.0 0.0 and Thailand - 142 - Appendix Table 1: RESEARCH SUPPORT BUDGET FINANCIAL STATUS OF ONODING AND RECENTLY COMPLETED PROJECTS 1/ (Current U.S. $'000) Authorized Project Department Total FY85 FY86 and Category Title Code Responsible Authorization 2/ Actuals 3/ Beyond 2/ International Study of the Retention of 671-55C EMP/ORD 439.2 (1.1) 0.0 Literacy and Numeracy Education and Other Determinants of Farm 671-78C PHN 30.9 0.0 0.0 Household Response to External Stimuti Mass Media and Rural Development 672-09C PHN/EDC 28.6 0.0 0.0 Diversified Secondary Curriculum Study 672-45C EDT/LCP/EAP 430.7 58.1 0.0 (DiSCuS) Returns to Investment in School Quality 672-93P LCP/EDT 268.4 104.9 78.6 in Rural Brazil Education and Informal Sector Employment 673-26 EDT 663.0 215.8 438.4 A Cost Effectiveness Analysis of Different 673-69 AEA 26.0 0.0 26.0 Types of Secondary Education in Shanghai Municipality, Peoples Republic of China Sub-total: 2043.2 377.7 543.0 VIII.B. Labor and Employment Wage and Employment Trends and 671-84C CPD 152.0 0.0 0.0 Structures in Developing Countries Structure of Employment & Sources of 672-40C LCI/DRD 20.0 0.0 0.0 Income by Socioeconomic Groups and Regions in Peru International Labor Migration in the 672-95PC EMP 9.3 0.0 0.0 Middle East and North Africa Labor Market Performance: Thailand 673-39 DRD 15.0 0.0 15.0 - 143 - Appendix Table 1: RESEARCH SUPPORT BUDGET FINANCIAL STATUS OF ONGOING AND RECENTLY COMPLETED PROJECTS 1/ (Current U.S. 5'O0O) Authorized Project Department Total FY85 FY86 and gory Title Code Responsible Authorization 2/ Actuals 3/ Beyond 2/ eal Exchange Rate and Labor Markets 673-48P CPD 3.0 3.0 0.0 Sub-total: 199.3 3.0 15.0 .C. Population. Health, and Nutrition lation Growth and Rural Poverty 671-02C DRD 62.5 0.0 0.0 -.%: Health, Nutrition, Worker 671-73C PHN/TRP 97.3 8.7 0.0 -'-ctivity, and Child Development es -h and Rural Development in Nepal 672-1OC PHN 134.0 0.7 0.0 *ty, Fertility, and Human Resources 672-19 VPERS 208.7 13.7 4.2 idonesia winants of Fertility in Egypt: 672-42 AEA 192.8 34.7 31.7 jalysis of the Second Round of the sian Fertility Survey -eterminants of Fertility in Rural 672-60C PHN 109.0 0.2 0.0 -'adesh d for and Willingness to Pay for 672-72C PHN 40.5 0.0 0.0 ces in Rural Mali -utritional Effects of Projects 672-8BPC AGR/PHN 6.7 0.0 0.0 ng to Increases in Small Farmers *-ted Surpluses rffectiveness of Family Planning 672-90PC AEA 7.8 0.0 0.0 ams "h Care Demand and Resource 673-38 DRD/PHN 179.1 96.9 81.8 ization: The Case of Peru - 144 - Appendix Table 1: RESEARCH SUPPORT BUDGET FINANCIAL STATUS OF ONGOING AND RECENTLY COMPLETED PROJECTS 1/ (Current U.S. $'000) Authorized Project Department Total FY85 FY86 and Category Title Code Responsible Authorization 2/ Actuals 3/ Beyond 2/ The Second Amman Population and Health 673-45 EMP 49.6 18.6 31.0 Survey Potential for Cost Recovery in Health 673-58P PHN 15.6 11.9 3.7 and Family Planning, Gambia . Nutrition and Health Status in Rural 673-75 PHN 7.0 0.0 7.0 Areas of Burkina Faso Sub-total: 1110.6 185.4 159.4 Total Section Vill: 3353.1 566.1 717.4 IX. Other Research Administration Fund 672-28 VPERS 541.7 201.4 0.0 Bank Research and Documentation Centre 672-76 VPERS 71.5 17.3 0.4 World Bank Economic Review 673-57 VPERS 120.0 16.1 103.9 Research Observer 673-61 VPERS 25.0 3.7 21.3 Research News 673-71 VPERS 10.0 10.0 0.0 Sub-Total 768.2 248.5 125.6 GRAND TOTALS: 28259.4 4837.9 8598.5 Note: Details may not add due to rounding. 1/ This table includes all "centrally approved" research projects, i.e., approved by the Research Committee and its successor the Research Projects Approval Committee (REPAC), both ongoing and completed, that spent funds in FY85 and/or had authorizations for FY85 or beyond Ref. No. 673-75 is the last project included in this report. Research projects completed prior to FY85 are not included in this table. For financial information on such projects, please consult World Bank Research Program, November 1984, Appendix Table 2. - 145 - 2/ These amounts represent Research Project Approval Committee authorizations as of June 28, 1985, and do not include contributions from outside sources. 3/ Year-to-date disbursements and outstanding commitments as of June 30, 1985. 4/ Indicates projects approved at year-end FY85, for which project funding is released for FY86. KEY: C Completed Project D Discontinued Project P Research Preparation DEPARTMENT CODES: Operations Policy Staff AGR Agriculture and Rural Development Department CGR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research CPD Country Policy Department EDT Education and Training Department EDI Economic Development Institute PPD Projects Policy Department PHN Population, Health and Nutrition Department TRP Transportation Department WUD Water Supply and Urban Development Department Energy and Industry Staff EGY Energy Department IND Industry Department Economics and Research Staff DRD Development Research Department EPD Economic Analysis and Projections Department VPERS Office of the Vice President, Economics and Research Regional Offices AEA East Asia and Pacific Programs Department AEP East Asia and Pacific Projects Department ASA South Asia Programs Department ASP South Asia Projects Department EAP Eastern and Southern Africa Projects Department EAl Eastern and Southern Africa Programs Department I EA2 Eastern and Southern Africa Programs Department II EMP Europe, Middle East, and North Africa (EMENA) Projects Department BM1 EMENA Programs Department I EM2 EMENA Programs Department I LCN Latin America and the Caribbean - Office of the Regional Vice President LCP Latin America and the Caribbean Projects Department LC1 Latin America and the Caribbean Programs Department I LC2 Latin America and the Car;bbean Programs Department It WAP West Africa Projects Department WAI West Africa Programs Department 1 WA2 West Africa Programs Department II