THs WORLD BANK Internal Discussion Paper AFRICA REGIONAL SERIES Report No. IDP-0120 Private Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa An Exploratory Analysis Rashid Faruqee December 1992 Chief Economist's Office Discussion Papers are not formal publications of the World Bank. They present pretinary and unpolished results of county analysis or research that is circulated to encourage discussion and conunent; citation and the use of such a paper should take account of its provisional character. The findings !nterr etalIons,and concusions expressed in spaper areentirely those of theauthor(s) and should notbe attributed in any mannerto the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to nenbers of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The report is the result of a desk study and it draws on available studies on the subject and puts together data on private investment available from various sources in the Bank. The report was prepared by Rashid Faruqee (AFRCE) with contributions from Nam Pham, Nandita Tannan and Shams Rehman (Sumaier Intern). Nam Pham did the statistical work and Nandita Tannan was responsible for overall document production. The paper benefitted from extensive comments received from Ishrat Husain, Ajay Chbibber and Ejaz Ghani on an earlier draft. The overall purpose of this paper is to analyze the role of private-investment in Sub- Sabaran Africa, especially In those countries that have embarked on structural adjustment programs. Specifically, the paper has three objectives: * to serve as a compendium of data on total investment, including private investment, in Sub-Saharan countries; * to review the available literature on the factors that influence private investment and their relevance to Sub-Saharan countries; and * to extend inter-country regression analysis, mainly done for son-SSA developing countries, to the SSA region. R. Paruqee Table of Contents Chapter1 Introduction................... .......... ... 1-2 Chapter 2. Trends and Status of Private Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa ...... ..... .... .......................... 3-16 2.1 General Conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa 2.2 Trends Chapter 3. of Private Investment and Evidence from SSA ................ ...................... 17-35 3.1 Macroeconomic Stability 3.2 Fiscal Deficits and Debt Overhang 3.3 Exchange Rates 3.4 Interest Rates 3.5 Institutions and Regulation 3.6 Public Investment 3.7 Output Chapter 4. The Impact of Structural Adjustment Programs on Private Investment ........ ........... .............. 36-41 Chapter 5. Empirical Results of Intercountry Study.. . .. . .. . . ........... 41-53 5.1 Data 5.2 The Model 5.3 Results 5.4 Extension of the Model Chapter 6. Recommendations for Policies and Further Work ............... 54-56 Bibliography List of Tables. Boxes and Fiiures in the Text: Table 1: Growth of GDP and Investment of Low and Middle-Income Countries Table 2: IDA Countries in Africa Receiving Adjustment Credits Table 3: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators for Sub-Saharan Africa Table 4: Investment, Domestic and National Savings Ratios in Low and Middle-Income Countries Table 5: Total Investment as Percentage of GDP Table 6: Private Investment as Percentage of GDP Table 7: African Countries Among Leading and Lagging Indicators (Compared to counterfactual without adjustment) Table 8: Total External Debt as a Percentage of GNP Low- and Middle-Income Countries Table 9: Determinants of Private Investment (1980-90) Table 10: Determinants of Private Investment (1980-90) Box 2.1: Methodology Used for Investment Trend Analysis Figure 1: Sub-Saharan Africa - Total External Debt Annex I Table: Benin-Investment Botswana-Investment Burkina Faso-Investment Burundi-Investment Cameroon-Investment Central African Republic-Investment Chad-Investment Comoros-Investment Congo-Investment Cote d'Ivoire-Investment Djibouti-investment Equatorial Gulnea-Investment Ethiopia-Investment Gabon-Investment The Gambia-Investment Ghana-Investment Guinea-Investment Kenya-Investment Lesotho-Investment Madagascar-Investment Malawi-Investment Mali-Investment Mauritius-Investment Namibia-Investmient Rwanda-Investment Senegal-Investment Seychelles-Investment Sierra Leone-Investment Somalia-Investment Sudan-Investment Swaziland-Investment Tanzania-Investment Togo-Investment Uganda-Investment Zaire-Investment Zimbabwe-Investment CHAPTER 1 PRIVATE INVESTNENT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA INTRODUCTION Private domestic investment is a key determinant of economic growth. The promotion of private investment, both domestic and foreign, is therefore at the center of most low- income countries' development strategy. Private Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is currently low and has been suffering a decline in relative terms since 1980. Most developing countries suffered external shocks in the early 1980s, which lowered public and private disposable incomes, increased the cost of borrowing, and created a scarcity of foreign exchange in domestic economies. These shocks Included higher oil prices, lower prices for major export commodities, higher real interest rates and a lack of capital flows from commercial sources. In an effort to establish a degree of macroeconomic stability - Including a sustainable economic growth rate, low predictable liflation, and external and internal balance - some developing countries in SSA undertook adjustment programs in the early 1980s with the help of the World Bank and the laternatioal Monetary Fund (IMF). Other countries initiated similar programs a few years later. By 1991, twenty-nine SSA countries had instituted structural and sectoral adjustment programs. The adjustment programs are designed to reduce financial imbalan,es and economic distortions in addition to several other objectives. First and foremost is the stimulation of growth in the economy. This depends on increasing efficiency in the utilization of resources and the productivity of new investments in the economy. It requires governments to liberalize regulations that impede private investment and divest themselves of many public enterprises. Private investment will then be allowed in areas where government had previously dominated. 2 Second, since the relative scarcity of foreign exchange is high, countries have to expand their exports and augment the output of their import-competing sectors. Finally, domestic savings would have to take on a more Iaportant role and need to be Increased because borrowing abroad Is much more expensive. This paper examines and evaluates the trends in private investment in SSA, especially in the context of recent adjustment programs. Section 2 of this paper examines the trends in total Investment, including private investment, in SSA. Section 3 presents the results of a survey of the literature on the determinants of private Investment pertaining to all regions and assesses d am in explaining the low and declining private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Section 4 deals with the impact of the structural adjustment programs on private investment and Section 5 presents the empirical results of an Inter-country study of the d I I I "a of private investment. Section 6 makes policy recommendations and suggests areas where further work should be undertaken. 3 CHAPTER 2. STATUS AND TREOS OF PRIVATE IWVESTMNT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA This section looks at the macroeconomic situation of SSA and reviews the trends in domestic Investment in the region in contrast to other regions. Also Included is a box on the methodology used for obtaining public and private investment data for this report. 2.1. Overal Margoeonoml Situation In SSA and Comoarison with Other Regons SSA is below the average of developing countries of the world in the growth of GDP and domestic investment (See Table 1).1 The average annual GDP growth rate during the 1980-90 period is half that of the 1965-80 period. Aggregate GDP growth has been on average less than population growth rates during the 1980s below the average of South Asia and East Asia. The per capita income in SSA In the mid-1980s was one fourth lower than in the mid-1970s. Export earnings, terms of trade and capacity to import have all declined precipitously in the 1980s - and agricultural growth has been weak. Investment started declining sharply in the early 1980s with the onset of an economic crisis in many developing countries arising from terms of trade shocks and the debt problem. The decline in investment has been so severe that some countries are not even replacing their depreciating capital. In SSA, the estimated investment required to replace depreciating capital is 13 percent of GDP. In 1987, seven countries were below this level in SSA. 21 1/ The subject of this paper is private investment, although parts of the paper deals with total investment, estimates on which are more readily available. The dermition and estimate of investment are based on usual national accounts. Various problems and discrepancies exist in data, as noted in Box 2.1. 2/ W. Easterly, "Fiscal Adjustment and Deficit Financing during the Debt Crisis,' in Dealing with the Debt Crisis" edited by I. Husain and I. Diwan. (Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1989). 4 Table 1: Growth of GDP and Investment of Low and Middle-Income Countries Region Average annual growth Average annual growth rate (Percent) of rate (Percent) of GDP Gross Domestic (in real terms) Investment (In real terms) 1965-80 1980-90 1965-40 1980-90 Overall: Low and Middle Income 5.9 3.2 8.3 2.3 Countries Sub-Saharan Africa 4.2 2.1 8.7 -4.3 East Asia 7.3 7.8 11.1 10.6 South Asia 3.6 5.2 4.1 4.6 Middle East & North Africa 6.7 0.5 NA NA Latin America & Caribbean 6.0 1.6 8.2 -2.0 SMMWJDR to92 Ta w Tab . The deterioration of the macroeconomic conditions forced several SSA countries to initiate policy and institutional reforms in the early 1980s and many other countries in the region started adjustment programs in later years. Table 2 records the dates in which IDA supported adjustment programs started in SSA countries. In 1980 only three countries received IDA support for adjustment programs but, by 1991, 29 countries received such support. Table 3 lists selected macroeconomic indicators for Sub-Saharan Africa for three periods: 1970-80, 1981-85 and 1986-90. These periods roughly reflect, respectively, the pre- adjustment period, the macroeconomic crisis period and the adjustment period. The table shows that several macroeconomic indicators - external and internal balance indicators, external shock index, exchange rate investment and savings rates - worsened during the crisis peiod. During the adjustment period, some of these Indicators Improved, but some continued to be depressed. The savings and investment rates remained particularly stagnant during the adjustment period. Investment to GDP ratio declined from 21 percent in 1970-40 to 16 percent In 1981-85 and recovered to only 17 percent during the adjustment period. Similarly, gross domestic savings (ODS) as a percentage of GDP declined from 18 percent during 1970-80 to 12 percent during 198145 in SSA. It started to recover slowly after that with the ODS share of the GDP Increasing to 14 percent during 1986-90. In teras of several Indicators - debt service, terms of trade, infi tion and fiscal deficit to GDP - there seems to be no Improvement during the adjustment period. There Is, however, clear progress in reducing exchange rate overvaluation and the external financing to the region increased significantly. Table 4 presents comparative data on investment and its major source of financing (domestic saving) for the three time periods corresponding to pre-adjustment, crisis and adjustment periods.11 The table shows that none of the other developing regions of the world have encountered a decrease in investment and saving rates as large as SSA's in 1981- 85. The average gross investment to GDP rate declined by 5 percentage points. The average gross national savings (ONS) as a percentage of GNP in SSA was also 5 percentage points I In analyzing Investment in SSA, another critical variable is the efficiency of investment, for which, however, no relevant data is available. One should note that a key objective of adjustment is to increase efficiency of existing stock of capital and Investment. To the extent, a decline in investment is compensated for by increased efficiency of existing and new capital, the trend of declining investment should not be a matter of concern. However, it can be argued that after gains from increased efficiency of capital, further output growth will have to come ftm an increase in capital stock (investment), so the understanding of trends and the determinants of private investment remains a central issue of structural adjustment and economic growth. 6 lower In 198145 than the average for 4* period 1970-80. No other region registered such a decline and some regions even had an increase. During the adjustment period (1986-90), the Investment and saving rates in SSA Improved only marginally. The average GDS of SSA for the three periods show similar trend as ONS. 8<8< 8< 8< 8< 8< - I 8<8<8<8<8< 8< ~8< 8<8< 8< ~ I ...~... ..~ ,.. i ~ I 8< 8< 8< 8< ,<~ 8<8<8<~8<~ I ~ ~ I 8< 8<8<8<8<8< 8< 8< 8< 8<8<1 I $*~..... I I .~ .. I ,....-'.,. I ~ I 8< 8< 8<8<8<8<8<1 8<8< 8<8<8<8<8<1 8<8<8<1 I. .4 *~. I I ~ I j'I..ø 8 I$~$~ip ~I I ~ .5 u IkIiihJ.iihuii>Idi3ih~1ItI ii Iii i 8 Table 3: Selected Macroeconomic Indicato for Sub-Saharan Africa Idicator 197040 1981-85 198690 Investment to GDP Ratio 20.8 15.7 16.8 Domestic Savings to GDP Ratio 17.5 11.7 14.3 Resource Balance to GDP Ratio -3.5 -4.4 -3.2 Debt Service to Exports Ratio" 9.6 18.4 26.4 REER (1980 = 100) d 95.5 113.5 89.4 Terms of Trade Index 106.3 91.6 80.8 Rate of Change of CPI (lWfation) e 16.5 17.7 20.5 Black Market Exchange Rate 128.9 221.9 90.9 Premium (%) we/ Fiscal Deficit to GDP Ratio 5.3 7.4 7.8 External Shock index as % of GDP " 0.1 -5.3 -2.2 External Financing (Net Flows in 1980 US $m) " Total J 7830 29%) 3839 (-28%) 4635 (25%) Public 7136 (28%) 3357 (.3o%) 4272 (31%) Private 694 (ss%) 482 (.i3s) 363 (.3%) Notes: a/ Index of the period average exchange rate of the currency to a weighted geometric average of exchange rates for the currencies of selected partner countries and adjusted for relative price movements In national price of the home country and its partners. An increase in the Index reflects an appreciation. b/ Includes only Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Sudan, Tanzania, Zaire and Zambia. c/ The total effect of external shocks as % of GDP is computed as the sum of the real interest rate effect and the terms of trade effect. d/ The periods used are 1970-1980, 1983-1985 and 1986-1989 respectively. The figures In parentheses refer to average amual growth rates. el These figures represent 1973-81, 82-85, and 86-89, respectively. Source: World Bank (BESD), OECD 1990 Report, Pick's Currency Yearbooks. 9 Table 4: Investment, Domestic and National Savings Ratios In Law and Middle Income Countries Indicator/Region 1970-80 1981-85 1986-90 Gross InvmentGDP Percent of GDP Total 24.7 24.1 25.3 SSA 20.8 15.7 16.8 South Asia 18.7 21.9 22.0 East Asia 28.4 30.3 34.5 Latin America & Caribbean 23.0 19.7 19.9 Middle East & North Africa 25.0 25.1 23.1 Gross Domestic SavingsIGDP Percent of GDP Total 23.1 23.3 24.8 SSA 17.5 11.7 14.3 South Asia 16.5 17.4 18.2 East Asia 28.3 29.8 35.6 Latin America & Caribbean 21.8 22.3 22.4 Middle East & North Africa 24.0 21.8 18.7 Gross National Saving/GNP Percent of GNP Total 22.2 22.1 24.0 SSA 14.6 9.3 9.7 South Asia 17.2 19.8 19.5 East Asia 27.8 28.7 34.9 Latin America & Caribbean 20.2 18.5 19.4 Middle East & North Africa 23.3 22.4 18.4 ANUesa GDPM, Weild udL Notm~ tw figum anemGDP wa4*htd av*Mmus CUmUkasim em bmsd oa WDV- 10 Table 4 also shows that savings In Sub-Saharan Africa are half the levels of developing countries of other regions. Investment levels in SSA were comparable to low-income countries of South Asia during 1970-80. Since then, the investment level steadily improved to approximately 22 percent, in contrast to a declining trend in SSA. The gap between domestic savings and investment rates is wider In SSA than in any other region of the world. 2[2 Treds 12A. Levels and Trends of Investment Within the ReWon The ratio of total investment to GDP in SSA differs widely among the countries in the region - from 2 percent to 50 percent. Table S compares the average ratio of investment to GDP of the lowest-three investment ratio countries with the average ratio of the highest-three investment ratio countries in 1970. The former group contains Burundi, Gambia, and Rwanda, and the latter contains Botswana, Gabon, and Guinea-Bissau. The difference in Investment to GDP ratio between these two groups during the different time periods ranges between six to ten times, Illustrating the glaring differences between the countries in SSA. The trends of investment to GDP ratio are also different among countries, For example, in the lowest-three investment ratio countries, the share of total investment in GDP doubled in the late 1970s (from 7 percent to 15 percent), continued rising in the early 1980s (18 percent), but marginally declined in the late 1980s (17 percent). On the other hand, the trend in the ratio of total investment to GDP for the highest-three investment ratio countries was the opposite. The ratio also increased modestly in the late 1970s (from 30 percent to 36 11 percent), but started falling in the early 1980s. In 1990, the ratio of total investment to GDP was even lower than in 1970. Table 5 also presents the trends of total investment to GDP for two income groups in SSA in 1975. The classification of lower and higher Income is based on the lowest and highest quartile, respectively, of per capita GDP (ATLAS method) of thirty-five SSA countries In 1975. The lower income group contains nine countries - Burwndi, Central Africa, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Mall, Malawi, Rwanda, Somalia, and Tanzania. The nine higher income countries are Cote d'Ivoire, Congo, Gabon, Mauritius, Sao Tome and Principe, Swaziland, Zaire, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The investment ratio for the nine lower income countries dropped marginally in the early 1980 but has risen since to attain its peak for the last twenty years (about an average of 19 percent). In contrast, for the nine higua income countries in SSA (in 1975), the ratio started falling in the late 1970s (from an average of 23 percent). During 1986-90, the ratio of Investment to GDP was even lower than the ratio in the early 1970s and the ratio was about the same as in the lower income group. Several observations can be made from the figures in Table 5. First, per capita income levels made a difference In the Investment rate during the pre-crisis period - the average investment rate of the comparatively higher income group had a 4 to 5 percentage point higher investment rate. Second, during the crisis period, the higher income group of countries experienced more decline than the lower income group. Third, the decline seemed to continue for the higher income group in contrast to some modest recovery of investment by the lower Income group. 12 Table 5 Total Investment as Percentage of GDP Years Simple Simple Simple Simple Average for Average for Average for Average for lowest-three highest-three the lowest the highest Investment Investment quartile of per quartile of per ratio countries ratio capita GDP in capita GDP in in 1970 countries in 1975 1975 1970 1970-74 6.8 % 30.3 % 16.5 % 22.7 % 1975-80 15.6 % 36.3 % 18.8 % 23.2 % 198145 17.5 % 32.5 % 17.3 % 19.5 % 1986-90 17.3 % 26.5 % 18.6 % 17.3 % Source: ANDREX Database 2.2.2. Private Investment Private investment as a percentage of GDP in SSA during the 1980s is also widely different across countries. It varies from 1.1 percent (Burundi In 1980) to 57.1 percent (Lesotho in 1990). Table 6 presents statistics on the mean average of private investment as a percentage of GDP for different groups of countries in early and late 1980s. If weighted by GDP, the average private investment to GDP ratio for the 1980s was 10 percent, a simple average of private investment as a percentage to GDP has also been around 10 percent during the first half of 1980s, but increased marginally to 12 percent in the later half. The difference between the lowest three private investment ratio countries and the highest three countries is pronounced - the rate of the latter group is almost three times that of the other group.&/ The ratio of private investment to GDP increased slightly for the lowest three private investment ratio countries during the adjustment period (1986-90) compared to the crisis ./ The lowest-three private investment ratio countries (in 1980) are Burundi, Malawi, and Togo, and highest three countries are Cote d'Ivoire, Gabon and Zimbabwe. 13 period. The average private investment ratio for theSe three countries actually declined slightly In the late 1980s in contrast with the early part of the decade. Table 6 clearly brings out the impact of Income on the level of private investment. A simple average for the top 25% per capita GDP countries in 1980 (Cote d'Ivoire, Gabon, and Mauritius) had a 17% investment rate approximately in both the early and late 1980s, whereas, for the 25% lowest per capita GDP countries in 1980 (Burundi, Gambia and Malawi), the simple average has been between 4.6% (in the early 1980s) and 6.0% (in the late 1980s). Thus, the level of per capita Income does make a big difference in the level of private investment in contrast to what was observed in the case of total investment (Table 5). In the case of total Investment, the highest 25 percent income group had only a 2 percentage point higher investment ratio than the lowest income group during 1981-5 - a difference that is lost during 1986-90. In the case of private investment, the difference remains pronounced during the entire period. Table 6 Private Investment as Percentage of GDP Years Weighted Simple Simple Simple Simple Simple Average Average Average Average Average Average for of SSA al of SSA for lowest- for highest- for the the highest three three lowest quartile of investment investment quartile of per capita ratio ratio per capita GDP in 80 countries in countries in GDP in 1980 1980 1980 1980-85 10.4 % 10.1 % 5.3 % 16.0 % 4.6 % 17.0 % 1986-90 10.2 % 12.2 % 5.8 % 15.0 % 6.0 % 17.5 % a/ Figures for SSA are based on available data for 16 countries. Source: ANDREX/DATABASE 14 Since private investment data is limited, inter-regional comparison is difficult. Data available from IFC sources on selected countries from different regions indicate that during 1980-85, the private investment to GDP ratio of few selected countries of SSA was comparable to South Asian countries, but lower than East Asia and Latin America regions. The ratio declined for those selected countries of SSA during 1986-90 and the rate was lowest among the 4 regions compared./I As for the share of private investment in total investment, a simple average for SSA countries is around 50 percentfThe share has been marginally increasing because of a faster decline of total investment. If compared to other regions, the share of private investment in total investment in Sub-Saharan Africa is similar to private investment data for South Asia but significantly lower than Latin America (60 percent) and East Asia (65 percent)/. I The inter-regional comparison is based on available data from the following countries of different regions: SSA: Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Malawi, Somalia, Tanzania, Zimbabwe SA: Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka EA: Fiji, Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Thailand LA: Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Chile, Columbia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela. Source: Pfeffermann, G., and A. Madarassy (1992), "Trends In Private Investment in Developing Countries." IFC Discussion Paper No. 14. Washington, D.C.: April. fi Figures for the whole region were calculated by using unweighted average of siteen SSA countries that have available data for 1980-90. These countries are those included in the empirical study in section 5 of this paper. The GDP weighted average for these will be around 60 percent during the same period. 2fTe figures correspond to the average for 1980-90. 15 To sum up, the total investment rate in SSA has been comparatively lower than most other regions and total Investment has remained at depressed levels during the last decade. The picture about the private investment in SSA is also the same. The private investment share in total investment in SSA is comparable to South Asia, but lower than Latin American and East Asian averages. The aggregate level of savings in SSA Is the lowest among all regions. Within the region, there is a wide variation among the countries. If disaggregated by the per capita Income level, the total Investment to GDP ratio was higher for the higher income group during 1970-80, but the difference between the two has narrowed since then. The average ratio of private Investment to GDP for the higher Income group, however, has been significantly higher than the lower income group, indicating predominant role of per capita Income level In influencing the level of private lavestment. ........... ....... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . ... ...... ..... ... n...n. I ... . .. . . . ............... M.M.. a .1 1.' sw us.a. nooa aa mio n ... ....... 9H 'pa.S a p s p opeo $e saq q¤ðoseios gaoðe em t ynpt m syam as uoeso5. 'Vn.. <.5 ni^d sppu o cnqp ouag*onaam e 'w so am8 watmu oIJsot øi pppus saangø^o ,pue.g s5q55..p55 555ap to5nSge sp«« fluisellf g egnPt eRP........................ '.....eNA "Pn s4)eu $8*W 4 NP^ Me ^¤ognu esp sm pu nignoo euos t Supet ete a espou5SouS5[deoA SSa .5ß©¤¢Hn ge¢. Table 9. 51 5.4.2. Intaton: If the nominal Interest rate remains unchanged with inflation, the real Interest rate is lower, which helps attract investment. Thus, Inflation could have a positive effect on private investment. The implicit GDP deflator and consumer price index (CPJ) were alternately used as proxy of expected inflation. The results for both indices - the Implicit GDP deflator and CPI - consistently show a positive correlation between inflation and private investment but the level of significance is low in all specifications. 5.4.3. Intres Rat: The real Interest rate was added Into the model with and without the inflation factor. Since the real interest rate is part of investment costs, the real Interest rate was expected to have a negative Impact on private investment. Due to the problem of data availabiity and the limitation of the model, the study used lending Interest rate and alternately used an implicit GDP deflator and consumer price index as a proxy of inflation to construct a real interest rate variable. The real interest rate in all different specifications gives a negative but Insignificant impact on private investment./ This finding about the insignificant effect of a real interest rate on private investment, is similar to Serven and Solimano's findings for other developing countries. 3I For example, with and without lag, linear and logarithmic form, level and deviations values. 52 Overall, the empirical findings of this paper suggest that determinants of private Investment In SSA countries do not have the same pattern as in other regions, especially in regard to two variables - real effective exchange rate and debt overhang. Serven and Sollmano found that, for developing countries, real exchange rates do not affect private investment whereas this study finds that for SSA countries there is a significant relationship between real exchange rates and private investment. This outcome is consistent with an itreai that a real depreciation of a local currency expands exports, raises real incomes, and consequently stimulates aggregate investment expenditures. The most significant findings of this paper show that short-term debt has an adverse effect on private investment, whereas long-term debt does not have any statistically significant effect on private investment In Sub- Saharan African countries. The results of Serven and Solimano (1991), related to developing countries of other regions, indicate no effect of external debt In private investment. The power of the real growth rate of GDP to explain the expansion of private investment in SSA countries not as strong as found in the case of other developing countries in Latin America and Asia. In this study, the growth rate is only significant at a 10 percent level in explaining variation in private investment. For Kenya, Matin and Wasow (1992) also found that the positive correlation between growth and private investment is insignificant. As in Serven and Solimano's study for other developing countries, real interest rates, does not have any significant negative effect on private investment. Inflation has a positive effect on private investment but the effect is statistically insignificant. As in other studies (e.g. Sundarajan and Thakur 1980, Shafik 1991), public investment seems to have no statistically significant effect. The negative sign indicates that there is no complementarity 53 between public and private investment. However, the extended model suggests that the lagged public investment variable seems to have a positive impact, although it is statistically insignificant, on the private investment. To sum up, the regression results lend some support to the expected roles of the determiants of private investment based on a literature survey. The results also shows that there are similarities, as well as a strong dissimilarity, between what is found to be statistically significant determinants in SSA and in other developing countries. The regression results, however, generally support or discard some hypothesis as specified In the model used. For example, the regression model in the paper does not establish any effect of interest rates on Investment. From a given model such as here, one cannot say which one is true: (a) there is no role of interest rate or (b) that the interest rate estimates do not actually capture the cost of capital. The Intercountry regression analysis has to be, therefore, supplemented with more country based studies that can analyze at length what factors influence private investment. 54 CHAPTER 6. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POUCIES AND FURTHER WORK The survey of the relevant literature and the empirical results of this paper indicate the following policy conclusions for achieving a sustained recovery in private investment in SSA countries the 1990s: a) The perceived risks of investment will have to be reduced by maintaining macroeconomic stability. Fiscal adjustment and reduction of debt burden will be necessary elements for such stability. b) Adjustment programs will have to incorporate components that will contribute to an enabling business environment for private Investors. These components include: * maintaining a competitive exchange rate * liberalizing trade and tariffs, which along with competitive exchange rates would Improve domestic incentives for private producers * dismantling barriers to entry/exit * streamlining/reforming legal/regulatory framework * making the tax system efficient, equitable and nondistortionary * Increasing efficiency of public sector investment and institutions, in order to make them complement, not compete with private investment * privatizing previously held government enterprises in commercial activities c) Ownership will have to be broadened by encouraging investment by those with a long-term interest at the same time allowing disinvestment at a discount. In support of policy reforms to help promote private investment, adjustment programs have to include the following financial sector components: * Improvement of financial institutions * liberalization of interest rates * capital market development * promotion of competition and private sector participation in the financial sector. 55 d) A good and well maintained infrastructure is crucial to the profitability of private Investment and adjustment programs needed to ensure higher and more efficient public expenditures on InfrastruCture. e) Debt overhang in SSA countries needs to be eased for creating private investor confidence. As for further work, In view of the poor quality of investment data, country specific studies will be useful in the future. Such studies will not only give greater attention to the consistency and quality of investment estimates, but also can probe the perception of private businessmen about their attitudes to the questions of investment. The intercountry analysis has to be supplenented by country specific studies, either individually or in analytical groups, to throw light on the determinants of private investment. For example, it would be particularly useful fcountry specific surveys could find out the perception of private investors regarding efforts and outcomes of adjustment programs and their confidence in the sustainabiity of reforms. In order to obtain meaningful empirical results it will be essential to disaggregate investment data. A distinction between traded and non-trade capital goods will be particularly important. This should be made because the impact of adjustment programs aimed at trade liberalization (e.g., devaluation of the exchange rate) has been to remove the implicit subsidy on imported capital goods. This means that investors will want to reduce the portion of traded capital in their overall capital stock, and that the level of non-traded capital goods produced in the economy will increase. The growth in production of capital goods could be constrained by a number of factors (e.g., the lack of legally titled and registered land) which could provide one explanation of why private investment has stagnated In SSA. Capital goods 56 originating in the non-tradeable sector can be captured by the value of gross output in the construction sector and are available from national accounts statistics. Data on capital goods from the traded sector from the United Nations' trade statistics. Also, it will be important to disaggregate investment by sector of destination. Following adjustment programs, the demand for investment in the export sectors is expected to rise. However, savings may not be channelled into these sectors because of the lack of functioning financial intermediaries (even in industrialized countries a large portion of Investment comes from retained earnings). Also, supply response in export sectors could be impeded because of ill-defined property rights on land. Finally, it will be important to collect data on inventories in order to understand inventory holding behavior by entrepreneurs in SSA. This is especially necessary for countries where major reforms have taken place. This is because in times of uncertainty, especially when reforms are being introduced, inventories tend to be maintained at very high levels, while as reform begin to work and confidence grows, entrepreneurs tend to hold less Inventories. Given these needs for disaggregation, further work is needed on a disaggregation plan, determination of what data sources to be used and what country-specific statistical institutions to work with. More understanding is also needed about each country's policy framework - how secure are property rights, how enforceable are business contracts and how efficient and fair is.the administration of justice. These factors affect transaction costs and we need to know how these factors can be improved to make private investment attractive. Labor market issues and their role in implementing private investors decisions will also be important topics for further study. BIBLIOGRAPHY Balassa, Bela (1988), "Public Finance and Economic Development,' PftE Working Paper 31, Washington, D.C. Blejer, M. and M. Khan (1984), "Government Policy & Private Investment in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers 31. Borensztein, Eduardo (1991), 'Will Debt Reduction Increase Investment?' Finance and Develpme. March. Branson, W. (1986), -Stabilization, Stagflation, and Investment Incentives: The Case of Kenya, 1979-80,* in Economic Adtme and Exchan Ra in Devloing Countries ed. Edwards S. and Ahmad, L.. Chicago:University of Chicago Press. Buffie, E. (1986), 'Devaluation, Investment, and Growth in LDC's,' Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 16. North Holland. Chbibber, A., M. Dallami, and N. Shaflk (1991), Reviving.E Im ent In Developig Countries. Draft Manuscript, September. Conway, Patrick (1991), An Atheoretic Evaluation of Sce in.StructuralAdustment. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, January. Deming, Maryke (1988), Enrpeush ad Pia Sector Delp n: Spo to Smal and Microntrris.' Washington, D.C.: World Bank, August. Diaz-Bonilla, Eugenio (1990), 'Structural Adjustment Programs and Economic Stabilization in Central America." World Bank Economic Development Institute Seminar Report No. 23. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, June. Easterly, W. (1989), 'Fiscal Adjustment and Deficit Financing during The Debt Crisis," in Dealing with The Debt Crisis ed. Husain I. and Diwan L. World Bank. Faini, R., and J. de Melo (1990), 'Adjustment, Investment, and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries,' Economic Policy (forthcoming). Greene, J., and Villanueva D. (1991), 'Private Investment in Developing Countries,' Interanal MQne Fund Staff aM. March. Guitidn, Manuel, Growti-ented Adtm t rgMMa, ed. Vittorio Corbo, Morris Goldstein and Mobsin Khan. Washington, D.C. Gulhati, R. (1988), 'The Political Economy of Reform in Sub-Saharan Africa.' World Bank Economic Development Institute Seminar Report No. 8. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, August. Hettige, Hemamala, W. Steel, and J. Wayem (1991), "The Impact of Adjustment Leanding on Industry in African Countries.' World Bank Industry Series Paper No. 45. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, June. Hslao, C. (1986), Analysis of Panel Data, Cambridge University Press. Husain, I. and Diwan 1. (eds.) (1989), Dealing with the Debt Crisis. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, September. International Finance Corporation (1991), IPC Annual Report 1990. Washington, D.C. Judge, Griffith, Hill, Latkepohl, and Lee (1990), The Ter and hade ofEnoQmtks, 2nd. Ed., John Wiley and Sons. Khan, S. Mobsin, and C. Reinhart (1990), "Private Investment and Economic Growth." Wold DoMt Vol. 18, No. 1. Marsden, K. (1990), "African Entrepreneurs: Pioneers of Development." IFC Discussion Paper No. 9. Washington, D.C., October. Marsden, K., and T. Blot (1987), "Private Enterprise in Africa: Creating a Better Environment." World Bank Discussion Paper, No. 17. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, July. Matin, K., and B. Wasow (1992), "Adjustment and Private Investment in Kenya," World Bank Working Paper No. 878. Washington D.C.: World Bank, March. Mills, C. (1989), "Structural Adjustment in Sub-Saharan Africa." World Bank Economic Development Institute Policy Seminar Report No. 18. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, October. Musalem, A. (1989), "Private Investment in Mexico: An Empirical Analysis," World Bank PPR Working Paper No. 183. Washington D.C.: World Bank. Nellis, John (1988), "Public Enterprises In Sub-Saharan Africa," World Bank Discussion Paper No. 1. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, April. OECD, "Implications For Development Assistance and Private Investment." OECD Riew na. Paul, Samuel (1989), "Private Sector Assessment: A Pilot Exercise in Ghana." World Bank Working Paper No. 199, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, May. Pfetlermann, G., and A. Madarassy (1989), "Trends in Private Investment in Thirty Developing Countries." IFC Discussion Paper No. 6. Washington, D.C.: September. Pfeffermann, G., and A. Madarassy (1992), "Trends in Private Investment in Developing Countries." IFC Discussion Paper No. 14. Washington, D.C.: April. Serven, L., and A. Solimano (1991), "Adjustment Policies and Investment Performance in Developing Countries: Theory, Country Experiences, and Policy Implications." World Bank Staff Working Paper, No. 606. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. - (1992), "Private Investment and Macroeconomic Adjustment: A Survey," Research Observer, No. 1, Vol. 7, World Bank. Sundaraan, V. and S. Thakur (1981), 'Public Investment, Crowding Out and Growth: A Dynamic Model Applied to India and Korea," IMF Staff Papers, 814455. van Wijobergen, S. (1982), *Stagflationary Effects of Monetary Stabilization Policies: A Quantitative Analysis" Journal of Development Economics, 10 (April): 133-70. van Wijnbergen, S. (1985), "Trade Reform, Aggregate Investment and Capital Flight: On Credibility and The Value of Information," Journal of Monetary Economics, 12. Warwick, K. (1991), "Saving and Investment In Developing Countries." Pinanceand DevloMent. June. World Bank, Aiustm ntgith g th (Reprinted from Finance and Development). Washington, D.C. - (1984), Toward Sustained Dealopment in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Joint Program of Agin, Washington D.C.: World Bank, September. - (1986), Washington, D.C.: April. - (1988), "Adjustment Leading: An Evaluation of Ten Years of Experience. World Bank Policy and Research Series, No. 1. Washington, D.C.: December. - (1989a), African Economic nd Financial Daa. 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