The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education Project Information Document/ Identification/Concept Stage (PID) Public Disclosure Copy Concept Stage | Date Prepared/Updated: 29-Nov-2017 | Report No: PIDC128925 Nov 30, 2017 Page 1 of 9 The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education BASIC INFORMATION A. Basic Project Data Environmental Project ID Parent Project ID (if any) Project Name Assessment Category Building Statistical Capacities P165120 C - Not Required in the Ministry of Education Region Country Date PID Prepared Estimated Date of Approval LATIN AMERICA AND Guatemala 29-Nov-2017 CARIBBEAN Initiation Note Review Financing Instrument Borrower(s) Implementing Agency Decision Dirección de Investment Project Ministry of Education of The review did authorize the Public Disclosure Copy Planificacion Financing Guatemala preparation to continue Educativa (DIPLAN) Financing (in USD Million) SUMMARY -NewFin1 Total Project Cost 0.35 Total Financing 0.35 Financing Gap 0.00 DETAILS -NewFin2 B. Introduction and Context Country Context Guatemala has considerable economic potential, but one of the highest poverty and inequality indexes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Since the early 1990s the annual growth of Guatemala’s gross domestic product (GDP) has been above 2.3 percent,[1] and has risen steadily from 3 percent in 2012 to above 4 percent in 2015.[2] Nonetheless, using a US$4 per day poverty line, the poverty rate increased from 55 percent in 2000 to 60 percent in 2014, compared to a regional average of 26 percent in 2011.[3] Nov 30, 2017 Page 2 of 9 The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education Moreover, income inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, was 0.49 in 2014, ranking 13th worldwide, and only above Paraguay, Colombia and Honduras in the region (ranked 12, 11 and 8, respectively).[4] Large gaps in both social and economic outcomes are observed by ethnicity, area of residence and informality. The indigenous peoples of Guatemala are much more likely (1.7 times) to be poor than non- indigenous people, and are poorer than indigenous peoples in most of LAC. Chronic malnutrition is high, affecting almost half of all children under two, but affecting two-thirds of the children in the lowest quintile and more than 60 percent of indigenous children. When looking at informality, 82 percent of Guatemalan workers are in the informal sector and are not covered by social security, with informal employment concentrated in two of the largest sectors, agriculture and commerce (94 percent and 86 percent respectively). Public Disclosure Copy [1] Except in 2009, in the midst of the global crisis, when GDP growth dropped to its lowest at 0.5 percent. [2] Source: World Development Indicators (The World Bank). Available here: http://data.worldbank.org/data- catalog/world-development-indicators. [3] Source: SEDLAC (CEDLAS and The World Bank). [4] World Factbook, Central Intelligence Agency. Available here: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2172rank.html Sectoral and Institutional Context Guatemala has made substantial progress over the last several decades in expanding access to education; however, high school dropout remains a key challenge, together with poor learning outcomes. While Guatemalans born between 1935-40 only attained an average of two years of education, those born between 1995-2000 have completed at least lower secondary (LS).[1] However, while average enrollment in primary education is now above 90 percent (2015 data), around 15 percent of children are already out of school by age 13 and only 50 percent of children are still enrolled at age 17. Learning outcomes are also very poor among primary school children. According to TERCE (2013) results, Guatemala –together with Honduras and Nicaragua- are the lowest performers among 15 LAC countries in third and sixth grade reading and mathematics. According to international evidence, in addition to other measures, the timely and active use of statistical information can significantly contribute to addressing key sector issues. Simple informational interventions have shown to be potentially cost-effective strategies to improve educational outcomes in different contexts Nov 30, 2017 Page 3 of 9 The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education and with a variety of types of information: academic progress (Bergman, 2016), returns to education (Jensen, 2010; Nguyen, 2008), diagnostic feedback evaluations (De Hoyos et al, 2016), among others. Despite the lack of a National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS), the government has made several steps to identify key bottlenecks regarding their information systems. The National Institute for Statistics (INE, for its Spanish name) has recently published a National Strategy for the Management of Statistical Information with a focus on Baselines. It provides an overview of information management offices within all public institutions and is a critical starting point towards responding to information needs in their corresponding areas, especially regarding generation and use of statistical data. In the education sector, in particular, the OECD report Making Education Count for Development: Data Collection and Availability in Six PISA[2] for Development Countries (2015), provides a critical first input as it “assesses the current state of data collection and availability, in terms of quality and completeness, at the level of the national education system.” Public Disclosure Copy The Ministry of Education (MINEDUC) has shown strong commitment to and progress in improving data collection, as evidenced by the creation of its SIRE (Sistema de Registros Educativos); however, MINEDUC needs to improve its capacity to process, manage and use statistical information for evidence-based policy- making. During the last decade, MINEDUC has gathered detailed student-level micro-data, which are stored in digital datasets, disseminated online, and processed on a decentralized basis. In 2009, student id numbers–that link student records across datasets–were incorporated into the system. In 2015, SIRE, a system to monitor key education indicators and make them publicly available, was launched. However, since 2005, MINEDUC uses BusinessObjects software to manage its administrative data, which has not been updated. In this context, key challenges limit SIRE’s potential to contribute to policy-making in education: (i) limited reliability of data, which is collected with deficient technological equipment and processed with outdated software; (ii) limited active use of data by decision-makers, who don’t have a culture of using available information in the decision processes; (iii) low technical capacities of MINEDUC’s staff to manage statistical information; (iv) lack of formal guidelines and standardized processes for collecting, managing, processing, analyzing and using data, which jeopardizes data quality; (v) data is not made publicly available in a timely or user-friendly manner; among others. Component 1 of this proposal aims to tackle these critical issues. As an example of its intentions to improve the use of data, MINEDUC launched an institutional effort to use statistical information available in SIRE for predicting and preventing school dropouts. MINEDUC, supported by the World Bank, is currently designing (and will soon pilot) an Early Warning System. The Early Warning System will use administrative data included in SIRE to predict students at risk of dropping out and identify initiatives to prevent it. During 2017, MINEDUC will pilot the system with specific interventions (accountability and reminders, awards, and parent-targeted information), which would be combined with the provision of overall guidance to school principals on strategies for preventing dropout. These would, then, be assessed to evaluate their effectiveness. Component 2 of this proposal is conceived to complement these efforts. Nov 30, 2017 Page 4 of 9 The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education In this context, this Project seeks to boost the use of statistical information on the education system in Guatemala to promote evidence-based decision-making, with a special focus on reducing school dropout, one of the most critical issues in the Guatemalan education sector. [1] These achievements are driven by expanded access to education and declines in school dropout in the transition between primary and LS, and during LS. For instance, while about 20 percent of the children born around 1980 dropped out between age 12 and 13, only 8 percent of the children born around 1995 dropped out between those ages. [2] PISA stands for Programme For International Student Assessment. Public Disclosure Copy Relationship to CPF The proposed Project is aligned with the first pillar of the current Country Partnership Framework for FY17- 20:[1] fostering inclusion of vulnerable groups. Through its support to improving MINEDUC´s management capacities, the proposed Project will contribute to addressing unequal access to opportunities and basic services of acceptable quality. In particular, the Project will allow MINEDUC to manage, process and use quality information to reduce gaps in access to opportunities and services across gender, geographic locations, ethnic groups and income quintiles. [1] Report No. 103738-GT, discussed by the Board of Executive Directors on November 17, 2016. C. Project Development Objective(s) Proposed Development Objective(s) The development objective of this Project is to strengthen the capacity of MINEDUC to collect, manage, analyze and use high-quality statistical information to design, implement and evaluate evidence-based interventions to address key sector challenges. Key Results  Diagnostic of MINEDUC’s management system is carried out using SABER-EMIS[1] tools and results in an action plan.  MINEDUC technical staff is trained to better process, analyze and use available data for informing policy-making.  SIRE is strengthened through the implementation of key activities under the action plan resulting from the diagnostic. Nov 30, 2017 Page 5 of 9 The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education  Improved SIRE includes new information to predict school dropout. [1] SABER-Education Management Information Systems (SABER-EMIS) aims to help countries improve data collection, data and system management, and data use in decision making, thereby improving different elements of the education system and contributing to the end goal of improving learning for all children and youth. SABER-EMIS is one of the sub-systems under The World Bank’s Systems Approach for Better Education Results (SABER) initiative, which produces comparative data and knowledge on education policies and institutions, with the aim of helping countries systematically strengthen their education systems. SABER-EMIS helps education policy makers and stakeholders reach more effective education management information systems. For more information on the data collection instrument: http://wbgfiles.worldbank.org/documents/hdn/ed/saber/supporting_doc/Background/EMIS/SABER_EMIS_Q Public Disclosure Copy uestionnaire_092414.pdf D. Preliminary Description Activities/Components 1. Description The proposed Project will be financed through a Recipient Executed Grant from the Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building (TFSCB) over a period of eighteen months. The total Project amount is US$450,000. The Project will be divided in three components: 1. Enhancing SIRE; 2. Boosting SIRE to predict students at risk of dropping out; 3. Providing support for Project management. Component 1. Enhancing SIRE – Requested amount: US$291,000. The objective of this component is to strengthen SIRE, which is led by MINEDUC’s Planning Directorate (Dirección de Planificación Educativa, DIPLAN). To this end, under this Component the Project will support: Subcomponent 1.1. Detailed diagnosis of current data management and utilization practices, including a benchmarking analysis with comparable countries. In particular, this component will finance the implementation of the SABER conceptual background and operational tools to assess the Education Management and Information System (henceforth, SABER- EMIS tool); Nov 30, 2017 Page 6 of 9 The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education Subcomponent 1.2. Training MINEDUC technical staff on methods for processing and analyzing statistical data included in SIRE. This subcomponent will finance training on processing and analyzing school- and student-level data (including learning assessment results). The training program will be comprised of theoretical and practical modules, including: i) the use of BusinessObjects software, ii) statistical software (e.g., SPSS, Stata, Big Data tools, etc.), and iii) econometric methods. The program will also include training on sub-group analysis of particular interest to MINEDUC, including gender, ethnic group, and area of residence. Training will be open to staff within the Directorate of Evaluation and Educational Research (Dirección General de Evaluación e Investigación Educativa, DIGEDUCA) and DIPLAN, among others. This subcomponent will also finance technical assistance to DIPLAN on the use of statistical information for strategic planning, budgeting and quality assurance. Subcomponent 1.3. Updating MINEDUC’s data analysis and management tools. In particular, this subcomponent will finance: i) desktop computers, laptops and/or tablets for technical staff in charge of data Public Disclosure Copy analysis to manage and deliver the information faster and better; and ii) acquiring licenses for statistical data processing software (i.e., Stata). The acquisition of and installing the BusinessObjects software updates will be financed by MINEDUC (US$100,000). Subcomponent 1.4. Developing a “Good Practices in Statistical Information Management Manual” that includes policies, strategies and mechanisms for managing, processing, analyzing and using statistical data, following the Recommendation of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Council on Good Statistical Practice (OECD 2015) and the Code of Good Practices in Statistics for Latin America and the Caribbean (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean 2011). Component 2. Boosting SIRE to predict students at risk of dropping out – Requested amount: US$98,000. This Component will finance activities related to strengthening and enrichening SIRE to increase its usefulness for informing evidence-based decision-making. In particular, related activities include: (i) designing new questionnaires; (ii) programming new data entry mechanisms; (iii) expanding, disaggregating and fine-tuning information fields; (iv) integrating the system with other systems (within MINEDUC or other sectors); (v) implementing data quality assurance strategies, among others. Ethnic disaggregated data and socio-cultural pertinent questionnaires will be integral parts of these activities to reflect Indigenous Peoples’ situation and inform education public policies. This subcomponent will also finance technical assistance for designing a strategic plan for cost-effective information-based interventions aimed at reducing school dropout based on international experience. Activities under this component will build on the results of the pilot of the Early Warning System. Component 3. Providing support for Project management – Requested amount: US$61,000. This Component will finance Project management costs, such as hiring support staff (procurement and financial management), a national consultant to provide technical assistance for overall project management, operating costs such as equipment and office supplies, and will finance the required audit of Grant implementation activities. Nov 30, 2017 Page 7 of 9 The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education SAFEGUARDS E. Safeguard Policies that Might Apply Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Yes No TBD Project Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X Forests OP/BP 4.36 X Pest Management OP 4.09 X Public Disclosure Copy Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X Projects on International Waterways X OP/BP 7.50 Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X CONTACT POINT World Bank Contact : Enrique O. Alasino Massetti Title : Senior Education Specialist Telephone No : 5398+219 Email : Contact : Francisco Haimovich Paz Title : Economist Telephone No : 202-473-9794 Email : Borrower/Client/Recipient Borrower : Ministry of Education of Guatemala Contact : Oscar Hugo López Riva Title : Minister of Education Telephone No : 5027232117 Email : olopezsilva@mineduc.gob.gt Implementing Agencies Implementing Dirección de Planificacion Educativa (DIPLAN) Agency : Nov 30, 2017 Page 8 of 9 The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education Contact : Bayron Osorio Title : Director of Education Planning Telephone No : 5027232117 Email : bosorio@mineduc.gob.gt FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: (202) 473-1000 Web: http://www.worldbank.org/projects Public Disclosure Copy Nov 30, 2017 Page 9 of 9