37826 E n v i r o n m e n t S t r a t e g y Ensuring Environmental Sustainability: Progress in Europe and Central Asia toward the Environmental MDG Anil Markandya and Suzette Pedroso A No. central theme of the eight Millenium Development Goals (MDGs) agreed on by UN member states in September 2000, is the alleviation of poverty 10 within a context of sustainable development. The MDGs provide a unique M headway in the fight against poverty by focusing on the achievement of quantified A and time bound development targets concerning income and non-income mea- Y sures of well being. Individual goals accordingly focus on poverty and hunger, edu- cation, gender equality, infant and maternal mortality, disease, the environment, 2 and development. For each goal there are concrete targets that countries have agreed 0 to meet over a 25-year period, 1990­2015, as well as quantifiable indicators of 0 progress.1 4 Millennium Development Goal 7, "ensuring environmental sustainability," has three targets and eight indicators (see table 1). The targets have to do with sustainable devel- opment, access to safe water and sanitation, and improvement of the lives of slum dwellers. In this note we examine the status and prospects of 28 countries of Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region with respect to the environmental goal. Drawing upon findings of a longer study,2 the note highlights gaps in knowledge, estimated costs of meeting specific targets, and recommended priority activities for the Bank. LINKAGES BETWEEN MDG7 AND Table 1 HEALTH AND POVERTY MDGS MDG 7 -- Ensure environmental sustainability The MDG indicators for environmental Target Indicators sustainability reflect important cross- 9: Integrate the principles of sustainable 1. Proportion of land area covered by forest development into country policies and 2. Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to sectoral linkages between the environmen- programs and reverse the loss of surface area tal, health, and poverty goals. For instance, environmental resources 3. Energy use per dollar of GDP (in PPP) 4. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita and consumption of better access to water supply and sanitation ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (WSS) brings about reductions in water- 5. Proportion of population using solid fuels borne disease and, consequently, in mor- 10: Halve, by 2015, the proport ion of people 6. Proportions of urban and rural population with sustainable bidity and mortality, especially among chil- without sustainable access to safe access to an improved water source dren. Better health, implies less sick time drinking water and basic sanitation 7. Proportion of urban population with access to improved sanitation and higher capacity for income generation. Improved management of natural resources and 11: By 2020, achieve a significant 8. Proportion of households with access to secure tenure improvement in the lives of at least 100 expansion of protected areas can contribute million slum dwellers to rural development and higher rural in- comes. This can be particularly beneficial carbon dioxide reduction and, water supply and sanitation improvement. to the rural poor who tend to rely on natu- This was done using detailed cost data collected by the Bank during imple- ral resources for sustaining their liveli- mentation of projects in these areas. Owing to a lack of time and resources, hoods. Efforts to improve energy efficiency this first phase covered only three selected countries -- Kazakhstan, Moldova and reduce carbon emissions are impor- and Ukraine. tant for the global environment, but they also have concrete local effects: wider ac- STATUS OF ECA COUNTRIES cess to cleaner fuels, decreased indoor and WITH RESPECT TO THE MDG7 TARGETS outdoor air pollution, and less respiratory As a group, and in comparison with all low- and middle-income countries, and cardiovascular disease. These im- the ECA countries are performing well on such MDG indicators as improved provements are especially important to water supply and sanitation (figure 1), but they lag with respect to percent- poor women and children, who are most age of protected land area, carbon dioxide emissions and energy efficiency. exposed to indoor air pollution stemming A closer look at the indicators under each target, however, reveals some from use of solid fuels for heating and concerns. cooking. Finally, alleviation of slum condi- tions has obvious implications for health Target 9: Sustainable Development and poverty. The links between the envi- Forested area. Although forest cover in ECA is above the world average, ronment, health, and poverty indicators are across the region the extent of continuous old-growth forest is declining. complex and depend on numerous contex- The available aggregate data do not reflect local problems such as illegal tual and institutional factors. logging and pollution from acids and heavy metals that can damage for- METHODOLOGY AND SCOPE Figure 1 Data collection and analyses for the study Performance on MDG indicators -- were carried out for about 8 months (from World, ECA, and low- and middle-income countries October 2002 to June 2003). In the first instance information was taken from the Percent of land area World Bank database on the proposed in- that is protected World dicators, and this was supplemented by in- Percent of land area Low and middle depth investigations at the country level. covered by forest income countries Where discrepancies were found, these ECA were investigated further and their policy CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) implications commented on. In addition, the study reviewed the suitability of the GDP per unit of energy use (PPPGDP/kg oil) official indicators as measures of the tar- gets. In a number of cases they were not Percentage of population with access considered appropriate and so new indi- to improved sanitaiton cators were proposed and, where possible, Percentage of population with access to data on them collected. Finally, a first at- improved water source tempt was made to estimate the costs of 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 improvement for the following indicators: Note: PPP, purchasing power parity; GDP, gross domestic product. Source: World Bank (2003c). est ecosystems. Alternative indicators such as forest health would be useful may not meet health standards and may to consider. not be available for 24 hours of the day, Area protected to maintain biological diversity. In almost all ECA countries other and leakage from poorly maintained sew- than the 10 in the European Union (EU) accession group, the share of pro- ers may contaminate water supplies. Ac- tected area is below the world average of 12 percent. Although there is no cess to improved water supply and sanita- quantitative target for 2015 for this indicator, there is a clear need to support tion is most problematic in the countries and enlarge the area under protection, as long as they are effectively man- of the Commonwealth of Independent aged. States (CIS), especially in Central Asia, and Energy efficiency. Energy efficiency in the ECA region has increased by 35 in Albania and Romania. Quality problems percent since 1992 (the earliest year for which data are available for most are significantly worse in rural areas, but countries), but gross domestic product (GDP) per unit of energy use was many urban areas are in need of urgent only $2.3 per kgoe, compared with $3.7 for the low- and middle-income action to prevent the collapse of delivery group and $4.5 for the world. A further increase in energy efficiency of around systems. 58 percent is needed to bring the region into line with countries at similar levels of development. Removal of energy subsidies still high in many coun- Target 11: Slums tries, would help in increasing efficiency. At present, in some countries, ap- No data on the proportion of households parent "improvements in efficiency" really reflect households' lack of access with secure tenure--the MDG indicator for to energy for heating and other purposes. The present indicators do not take slum conditions--have been collected in access into account. ECA. Indeed, the MDG definition of "slums" Carbon emissions. Carbon emissions in ECA have declined by 28 percent since as dwellings with insecure tenure is not 1992 but are still around 6.6 metric tons per capita, compared with the world very relevant in ECA countries, where average of 3.8 metric tons. To reduce carbon emission levels to those in people virtually cannot be evicted from similar countries, a 174 percent decline in per capita emissions would be their housing. Clearly, since transition be- required. But to some extent, the decrease in carbon emissions was a result gan in the region, more than a decade ago, of economic stagnation, and a draconian effort to lower emissions may not cities have become more spatially differ- be appropriate for recovering or rapidly growing economies. entiated into poor and rich areas, and Proportion of population using solid fuels. No official data are available. slums--areas with concentrations of poor people and with poorly constructed and If ECA countries are to meet the sustainability target, institutional reforms maintained housing and infrastructure-- in the management of natural resources are critically needed. For example, sim- are growing. Slums are being monitored ply increasing the area protected or under forest cover is not enough; the key and studied in Dushanbe (Tajikistan), issue is management as part of a sustainable livelihoods strategy that increases Tomsk (Russia), Tirana (Albania), and local incomes. The study assessed countries' policies and institutions, specifi- Bishkek (Kyrgyz Republic). cally the roles of ministries of environment. The biggest challenges are in the Central Asian countries where major institutional reforms are needed. COST IMPLICATIONS OF MEETING THE TARGETS FOR ENERGY AND Target 10: Water Supply and Sanitation FOR WATERSUPPLY AND ANITATION S Currently, 91 percent of the region's population has access to safe water and 93 The cost analysis concentrated on selected percent to sanitation. The targets for 2015 are 94 and 95 percent, respectively. countries and on the indicators for carbon Although the dioxide mitigation, and water supply and Figure 2 difference to sanitation infrastructure. No estimates Marginal costs of carbon reduction in Russia, 2008­12 be made up were made for the slum improvement tar- 250 seems small, get because the necessary data were lack- complacency ing. 200 is not war- Carbon emissions. Figure 2 shows the ranted: the estimated marginal costs of decreasing on)t/ 150 real challenge carbon dioxide emissions mitigation in S$ in ECA is to U(t Russia over the period 2008­12 to meet stop and re- 100 the targets set by the UN Framework Cos verse deterio- Convention on Climate Change. About ration in wa- 50 220 million tons of carbon could be ter quality saved at no net cost; that is, the reduc- and in ser- 0 tion programs have offsetting benefits. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 vices. For ex- Similar cost estimates were made for Reduction (millions of metric tons of carbon) ample, water Source: Golub and others (1999). Kazakhstan and Ukraine. The substan- carbon trading, and other ini- assessed the current status Figure 3 tiatives to foster energy effi- and prospects of 28 coun- Annual investment in WSS in Kazakhstan, ciency. tries of the Europe and Cen- Moldova, and Ukraine Target 10. In selecting the tral Asia (ECA) region with focus countries for water respect to the environmen- Required 2003-15 Actual 2000-01 tal goal. The study was car- 120 supply and sanitation, the ried out between October 100 Bank's regional management 2002 and June 2003 and 80 looks at existing needs, the millions was prepared as part of the 60 poverty level, current project Bank's contribution to the 40 lending, and proposed pro- Dollar Kyiv ministerial conference 20 ject lending that offers oppor- in May 2003. 0 tunities for dialogue and Kazakhstan Moldova Ukraine investment. In the first phase Source: World Bank (2003b). the focus will be on the coun- Authors tries with the most deterio- Anil Markandya is Lead Specialist in tial capital investment required to real- rated water supply systems: Albania, ECSSD at the World Bank. Suzette ize these reductions is likely to be a Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Lasanas Pedroso is a consultant in major constraint. One option is to sell Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Romania, ECSSD at the World Bank. carbon credits to other countries, and and Tajikstan. The second phase will Reviewers the World Bank's carbon finance ac- concentrate on small and medium-size This Note was reviewed by Camellia tivities, such as the Prototype Carbon cities and rural areas in Romania, Rus- Georgieva Staykova, Water and Sani- sia, and Ukraine, which have some of Fund and the Community Development tation Specialist, EWDWS; and Kulsum the largest population centers in the Carbon Fund (CDCF), could help ECA Ahmed, Lead Environmental Special- region. countries mitigate carbon emissions ist, ENV, both at the World Bank. Target 11: The Bank will undertake re- while generating financial flows. search to gather more information Water supply and sanitation. The costs about the status of slum dwellers in The Environment Strategy Notes series aims of meeting the quantitative WSS targets to provide a forum for discussion on a range ECA, identify problem areas, and de- were estimated for Kazakhstan (as well of issues related to the Environment Strat- velop proposals for action. egy, to help the transfer of good practices as in Moldova and Ukraine), where in- across countries and regions, and to seek frastructure and institutional capacity Currently, the Bank is conducting a effective ways of improving the Bank's en- are far less developed than in other ECA vironmental performance. follow-up study to develop more robust countries (figure 3). A 60 percent in- data for the MDG indicators in ECA coun- The views herein are those of the author(s) crease over the current annual invest- tries and to modify certain indicators to and should not be considered official policy ments for WSS in these countries is make them more appropriate for the ECA of, nor attributed to, the World Bank Group. needed to meet the MDG targets. area. The World Bank's activities in part- nership with governments, donors and PRIORITIES FOR BANK SUPPORT T other organizations will be crucial to ad- A focus on MDG 7 has a number of impli- dressing initiatives such as these and the Executive Editor Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez cations for the selection of Bank projects challenges posed by the environmental and programs at the country level. Selected MDG. Managing Editor priority areas for addressing each target are REFERENCES Poonam Pillai discussed below. Editor Target 9. The Bank will provide advice Golub, A., A. Avertchenkov, V. Berdin, A. Kokorin, M. Martunova, and E. Strukova. Nancy Levine on necessary institutional reforms; pro- 1999. "Study on Russian National Strategy Designer / mote projects that can use Bank instru- of GHG Emission Reduction (NSS)." World Production Manager ments such as the CDCF to reduce car- Bank, Moscow Country Office. Jim Cantrell bon emissions and make sustainable World Bank. 2003a. "Meeting the Environment livelihood objectives an integral part of Millennium Development Goal in Europe conservation and forestry projects in and Central Asia." Environmentally and So- the region. The Bank's new forest cially Sustainable Department (ECSSD), policy, approved in October 2002, will Washington, D.C. guide activities in ECA. The Bank will ------. 2003b. The Little Green Data Book. Washington, D.C. T H E W O R L D B A N K support countries' efforts to main- Environment Department stream biodiversity into economic de- NOTES 1818 H Street, N.W. velopment, improve protected areas 1. See the "Millennium Development Washington, D.C. 20433 USA networks, and promote participation Tel: 202 473 1000 Goals" Website, www.un.org/millenni- and capacity building in local commu- Fax: 202 477 0565 umgoals. nities. In the energy sector, the Bank E-mail: eadvisor@worldbank.org 2. This note is based on a longer study un- Web: <>