EDUCATION GLOBAL PRACTICE Zambia Education PER and PETS-QSDS at a Glance Zambia Education PER and PETS-QSDS at a Glance December 2015 © 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 19 18 17 16 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Contents What Are the Public Expenditure Review and Public Expenditure Tracking Survey and Quantitative Service Delivery Survey?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 The Education PER in Zambia: Highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Education Public Expenditure Tracking and Service Delivery in Zambia: Highlights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Summary of the Findings: PER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Summary of the Findings: PETS-QSDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Appendix A  Service Indicators of Major Education Inputs in the 2014 Quantitative Service Delivery Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Appendix B  Summary Table of Policy Recommendations, Public Expenditure Review. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Appendix C  Summary Table of Policy Recommendations, Public Expenditure Tracking Survey and Quantitative Service Delivery Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Figures   1 Coverage of Public Expenditure Review and Public Expenditure Tracking Survey and Quantitative Service Delivery Survey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1   2 Number of Secondary Classrooms Required in 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4   3 Projected Cost for Free Secondary Policy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5   4 Rate of Returns to Education among Wage-Employed Workers, by Gender. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6   5 Simulation of the Repayment and Cost of Bursary Scheme. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7   6 Trends in Grade 5 Student Learning Assessment, 1999–2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9   7 Grade 5 and 9 Learning, by Income Tercile. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10   8 Pupil-Textbook Ratio (per Five Students), by Subject, Education Level, and Urban-Rural Location . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10   9 Teacher Assessment in Grades 5 and 9, by Subject and Rural-Urban Location. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 10 Teachers’ Activities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 11 Action Taken by Head Teachers to Address Teacher Absenteeism, by Education Level. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 12 Transfer Rates of Grade 5 and Grade 9 Teachers between Urban and Rural Schools. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Contents iii Tables A.1 Indicators of Major Education Inputs in 2014 QSDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 B.1 Summary Table of Policy Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 C.1 Short- and Long-Term Strategies for Achieving the Overarching Goals for Zambia’s Education Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 iv Contents What Are the Public Expenditure Review and Public Expenditure Tracking Survey and Quantitative Service Delivery Survey? Public Expenditure Review (PER) in Zambia priority reform areas for policy makers, and set addresses the efficiency and equity of the macrolevel the agenda for the subsequent phase of budge- policy framework, budget allocations, and budget exe­ tary planning. cution for primary education; secondary education; The Public Expenditure Tracking Survey (PETS) technical education and vocational and entrepreneur­ traces fund flows from the central government to ship training (TEVET); and higher education. schools in order to identify leakages and assess A PER  is a diagnostic instrument used to efficiency and effectiveness in the use of public ­ evaluate the effectiveness of public finances funding. The Quantitative Service Delivery Survey (­ figure 1). It analyzes government expenditures (QSDS) examines the efficacy of spending, incen­ over a period of years to assess their consistency tives oversight, and the relationship between those with policy priorities and determine what results who contract for a service (for example, parents) were achieved. Many governments have made and those who deliver it (schools and teachers). strides toward including PERs as part of their The 2015 education PETS-QSDS in Zambia budget planning cycle. By examining how public evaluates three aspects of general education in expenditure was allocated and managed, gov- Zambia: (i) educational performance, (ii) the ernments and donors are better able to assess distribution of general education public expen- not only the impact of their investment but diture and school-level financing in terms of also  the effectiveness of budget planning and equity, and (iii) various education inputs, includ- execution. PERs help countries diagnose spend- ing physical facilities and quality of teachers. It ing problems and develop more effective and also attempts to show the link between educa- transparent budget allocations. The objective is tional performance and educational inputs and to establish a baseline understanding of key fis- to offer constructive recommendations for the cal management and policy challenges, highlight government of Zambia to consider. Figure 1  Coverage of Public Expenditure Review and Public Expenditure Tracking Survey and Quantitative Service Delivery Survey Policy framework Budget allocation Budget execution Intermediate and final output Sector outcomes Supply chain Service delivery process process What Are the PER and PETS-QSDS? 1 The Education PER in Zambia: Highlights The PER in Zambia recommends efficiency low in comparison to the shares that other improvements in the education sector to support African countries spend on TEVET. areas identified as needing more investment. • Capital investment (equipment and rehabilitaion) in TEVET is insufficient at • On a positive note, the largest share of the the institutional level, which, in the long government budget for education reflects run, adversly affects the quality of training. the strong commitment of the government • The education sector also needs serious to improve the education system in the improvement in the efficiency of financing country. and budget execution. • However, there are areas in the education • Twenty-eight percent of primary schools sector needing more budget support: ­ do not receive any school grants at all and • There is a serious shortage of secondary that there are significant differences among schools. The current number of secondary provinces in terms of the amount of money schools can accommodate only about they receive (partly due to incompliance of 30  percent of the current students in the budget allocation rule). grades 1–5. • Public universities rely heavily on • A free secondary education, which government grants, and they suffer from the government aims to introduce chronic deficits due to large salary and progressively, would require a sixfold administrative expenses. increases in government spending on • The current bursary scheme in higher secondary school grants. education is a loan scheme by law, but • While the TEVET sthubsector produces a it lacks the means to collect on loans. high-quality labor force, for which demand If a loan scheme is fully functional, the is increasing, it receives the smallest loan  repayment can contribute to about share of the government’s total education 10 percent of the annual bursary allocation. expenditure (per 2013 figures). It is also 2 The Education PER in Zambia: Highlights Education Public Expenditure Tracking and Service Delivery in Zambia: Highlights While access to education in Zambia is slowly • Teachers are poorly managed: (i) teacher improving, student learning has been stagnant attrition is high, and a large percentage of for decades. There is serious underinvestment in teachers want to and do transfer schools; and mismanagement of critical education inputs (ii) teacher absenteeism has remained such as textbooks and teachers. almost the same for the past decade; and (iii) teacher subject knowledge is • Are students learning? insufficient, especially at grade 9. • There has been no improvement in student • What are the other significant education inputs learning since the first national learning correlated with higher learning outcomes? assessment was conducted in 1999. • At the school level, access to a library, a Learning assessment scores (grade  5) lower pupil-teacher ratio, and a longer in 1999 were 34  percent in math and school day are correlated with higher 33 percent in English in 1999. In 2014, they student learning outcomes. were 35 percent in math and 31 percent in • At the teacher level, the presence of English. contract teachers significantly raises the • What are the key barriers in improving stu- learning outcomes of students, and a dents’ learning? teacher’s subject knowledge has a strong • There is a significant shortage of textbooks positive correlation with student learning because of a lack of funding and poor outcomes. In addition, teachers who exectuion of textbook policy. Five primary are intrinsically motivated and care for school students share less than 1 textbook the community positively correlate with for each subject (1.0 for mathematics, 0.9 student learning outcomes. for English, and 0.9 for science), and five • At the student level, having a textbook, the secondary school students share between frequency of questions that a teacher asks a 1 and 1.7 textbooks, depending on the student, and a student’s school attendance subject (1.0 for math, 1.7 for English, and are important factors in higher learning 1.0 for science). outcomes. Education Public Expenditure Tracking and Service Delivery in Zambia: Highlights 3 Summary of the Findings: PER The largest share of government budget goes to The current number of secondary schools can the education sector in Zambia. However, the accommodate only about 30 percent of the current allocation and execution of the budget within students in grades 1–5. the education sector are not efficient. While the Zambian government continues to The government of Zambia (GoZ) has histor- improve the accessibility of secondary education, ically shown a strong commitment to educational the number of new secondary schools required development by allocating a relatively large pro- to accommodate prospective secondary school portion of its budget to the education sector. The students is alarming. Suppose 50 percent of the ratio of government expenditure in education to current grade 1–5 students are in the secondary gross domestic product (GDP) is strong, ranging school in 2020, the number of classrooms in between 3.7 percent and 4.4 percent through secondary education required to accommodate ­ 2006–13, and it is projected to have exceeded these students without changing the current 5 percent in 2014 and 2015. This is relatively high classroom-pupil ratio (1:66) is 17,922, which for the region and comparable to other emerging translates into an additional 6,662 classrooms economies. (figure 2). The current number of secondary However, there are certain education policies schools (683 as of 2013) can sustain 31 percent of that need greater support from the government, current grade 1–5 students transitioning to sec- and the funding for those should come from exist- ondary education. This means that increasing the ing education-sector funding by reducing deficits accessibility of secondary schools will continue caused by inefficient use of available funds. to be a policy priority for the next decade Figure 2  Number of Secondary Classrooms Required in 2020 30,000 Secondary classrooms needed in 2020 25,000 20,000 17,415 13,831 10,246 15,000 6,662 3,078 10,000 11,260 11,260 11,260 11,260 11,260 5,000 0 40 50 60 70 80 Primary students transitioning to secondary (%) Current number of classrooms Additional classrooms needed 4 Summary of the Findings: PER However, the recent reintroduction of a previ­ primary schools has to be implemented with ous primary and secondary education model can proper planning that considers the supply of hamper access to lower secondary education even secondary schools offering grades 8–9. further, unless it is properly implemented. The free secondary school policy requires signifi­ The government recently started to cant budget support, which may not be currently “­ reintroduce” the primary and secondary edu- available. Therefore, incremental implementation cation system from the existing basic and high of the policy is recommended, starting with removal school system. The impetus was a low conver- of the school fee for the most vulnerable (poor) sion rate of the primary to the basic system that ­students first. had been introduced in 1996. Eighty-eight A free secondary education that the govern- percent of lower secondary schools belonged to ment aims to introduce progressively would basic schools (grades 1–9) in 2013. These basic require increasing government spending on sec- schools are supposed to become primary schools ondary school grants by more than sixfold, even offering only grades 1–7. This means that grades if enrollment in secondary education increases at 8–9, previously part of the basic schools, would the current pace (figure 3). Secondary schools go through significant school conversion. These charge, on average, ZMK 312 to each student to grades may be absorbed by secondary schools. finance operating costs, and students pay ZMK However, the number of secondary schools is 187 annually for tuition and Parent Teacher very small, and there may be many catchment Association fees. It is apparent that the current areas where there is no secondary school school grant of ZMK 29 per student at the pro- available within walking distance. The lower ­ vincial level is not enough to fully cover the cost secondary school conversion may create stress of secondary education, and it is unrealistic to in the supply of lower secondary grades. expect the gap to be closed solely by government Therefore, the conversion of basic schools to grants. Figure 3  Projected Cost for Free Secondary Policy 200 150 144.1 ZMW (millions) 100 50 22.1 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Tuition support required Current budget level (secondary school grants) Summary of the Findings: PER 5 The share of government education expendi­ formal sector, while 77 percent of those with ture on TEVET is the smallest among education a  certificate qualification work in the formal subsectors (less than 1 percent of total education ­sector. Further, while almost all secondary edu- expenditures in 2013) even though the current cation graduates in the formal sector have non- labor market pays very high wage premiums to professional occupations, more than 60 percent higher skills. of those with a certificate qualification hold a Compared to workers with no education, professional occupation. workers with grades 1–7 earn salaries 16 Financial management at the institutional percent higher if they are male and 6 percent level in TEVET is relatively healthy in general. higher if they are female (figure 4). The wage However, it is accompanied by low capital invest­ premium increases to 80 percent and 107 ment, especially for smaller institutions. percent, respectively, for men and women in Low capital investment is probably the the case of grades 8–12. The premium among main  victim of expenditure items in TEVET. Bachelor’s degree holders reaches 268 percent The  TEVET system inherently requires contin- and 247 percent for women and men, respec- ued investment in relatively expensive equip- tively. In addition, following secondary educa- ment to provide relevant training to meet the tion (grade 12) with postsecondary education latest labor market demands. Hence, it is of great (TEVET and higher education) makes a signifi- concern that the low level of capital investment, cant difference in the chances of getting formal especially at relatively smaller institutions, could employment. While 31 percent of male workers adversely affect the quality of training in the who have secondary education (grades 8–12) long run. work in the formal sector, 78 percent of those Meanwhile, there are serious inefficiencies in with a certificate qualification work in the for- budget execution and in public expenditure. mal sector. For female workers, the contrast is Public universities rely heavily on government even starker. Fifteen percent of female workers grants and suffer from chronic deficits due to heavy with secondary education are employed in the salary and administrative expenses. Figure 4  Rate of Returns to Education among Wage-Employed Workers, by Gender 300 268 250 247 Wage premium (percent) 197 200 185 175 174 150 107 100 80 50 16 0 6 Grade Grade A levels Certificate Degree 1–7 8–12 Male Female 6 Summary of the Findings: PER Compared to private universities, the high been 10 years since the scheme’s inception in number of nonacademic staff in public univer- 2004, but none of the student beneficiaries sities is a burden, causing high salary expenses have repaid even a penny to the treasury to  both University of Zambia (UNZA) and despite the fact that the contract specified it Copperbelt University (CBU). The ratio of stu- was a loan program with a return period and dents to academic staff is 19:1 in UNZA and interest rates. One of the reasons for this issue 28.5:1 in CBU. In comparison, a sampled private is the unclear authority for loan collection and university in Zambia shows a staffing level of ineffective collaboration with other agencies. 18.2:1. As implied by these ratios, there is little Furthermore, the ratio of graduates to loan risk of a shortage of teaching staff in these uni- beneficiaries was 16 percent in 2011 (1,167 versities. On the other hand, the ratio of nonaca- graduates to 7,086 beneficiaries), indicating demic staff to students follows quite a distinct that inefficiency exists in the system, probably pattern between public universities and a sam- in the form of repetition or dropout of spon- pled private university. While the ratio is 73.4:1 sored students. students per nonacademic staff member in the If a loan scheme is fully functional, the loan sampled private university, the ratios are, respec- repayment can contribute to about 10 percent of tively, 15.3:1 and 15.4:1 for UNZA and CBU. This the annual bursary allocation. means there is almost five times more nonaca- To understand the cash flow associated with demic staff in the public universities per student the bursary scheme, a simulation model was than at the sampled private university. produced. Assuming that the number of GoZ- One of the important areas for improving sponsored students grows at the current pace the financing in Zambia is the bursary scheme in of 11 percent per annum and university tuitions higher education. increase by 17 percent per annum, the nominal The current bursary scheme is a loan scheme amount of bursary expenditure will grow from by law, but it lacks the means to collect on ZMW225 million in 2013 to ZMW1,309 million loans. The repayment period of the loan has in 2020 (figure 5). Yet the annual repayment Figure 5  Simulation of the Repayment and Cost of Bursary Scheme 1,400 1,200 1,000 Nominal (ZMK million) 800 600 400 200 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 GRZ bursary expenditure Theoretical repayment Note: Expenditure until 2013 is the actual expenditure. GoZ = government of Zambia. Summary of the Findings: PER 7 from graduates could have contributed about fully repaid, is not self-­ sustaining because of the ZMW22 million in 2013 if the scheme had been high inflation rate. Students are exempted from fully functional. This revenue would have con- paying any interest while they are in school and tributed about 10 percent of the GoZ expendi- during the one-year grace period. By the time ture on bursary in 2013, and its contribution they start repaying the loan, the real value of will remain roughly around 8 percent toward the  loan (which students started receiving five 2020. While repayment can make an important years earlier) is  almost one-third its nominal contribution to the sustainability of the bursary value. Therefore, the scheme itself won’t be scheme, it is also important to note that the cur- self-sustaining even if the loan scheme is fully ­ rent structure of the bursary scheme, even if it is functional as per the contract. 8 Summary of the Findings: PER Summary of the Findings: PETS-QSDS Are students learning? distribution of scores for students from lower-­ ­ income families is concentrated around There has been little improvement in student the lower mean. This may indicate that family learning since the first national learning assess­ income could be the major factor determining ment was conducted in 1999. low student learning outcomes for low-income Scores for English and mathematics for grade students. Certain factors are correlated with 5 remain as low as 32.6 and 35.8 percent, respec- student learning and family income. For exam- tively, which shows no improvement of scores in ple, textbook ownership and student attendance 1999 (figure 6). Grade 9 scores fare worse, with are positively correlated with student learning, scores of 29 percent for mathematics and 36 and students from richer families are more percent for English and science. likely to have a textbook and higher attendance Income disparity in learning at both grades 5 than students from poorer families. and 9 is an issue. In general, average scores for students from the top 33 percent of household income are higher than the scores for students from low- What are the key barriers in er-income households (figure 7). In English, improving students’ learning grade 5 students from the bottom 33 percent of in Zambia? family income score 30 percent, while students from the top 33 percent of family income score Textbooks 42 percent. Of more concern is that the distri- There is a significant shortage in textbook supply bution of scores for students from higher-­ because of the lack of funding and the poor execu­ income families is widely spread, whereas the tion of textbook policy. Figure 6  Trends in Grade 5 Student Learning Assessment, 1999–2014 100 80 60 Score (%) 38.5 38.5 39.3 38.3 40 34.3 35.8 33.9 34.5 35.3 34.1 33.2 32.6 20 0 1999 2003 2006 2008 2012 2014 English Mathematics Summary of the Findings: PETS-QSDS 9 Figure 7  Grade 5 and 9 Learning, by Income Tercile 100 80 60 Score (%) 48 45 42 42 41 40 34 36 35 36 36 38 35 35 35 32 33 31 30 31 27 28 20 0 Math English Life skills Zambian Math English Science laguage Grade 5 Grade 9 Poor Middle Rich Figure 8  Pupil-Textbook Ratio (per Five Students), by Subject, Education Level, and Urban-Rural Location 3.0 2.5 Average number of textbooks that 5 students share 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.0 Math English Science Math English Science Primary Secondary Urban Rural Averaging urban and rural ratios, five pri- at the primary level. However, at the secondary mary school students share less than 1 textbook level, rural schools have significantly lower ratios for each subject (less than 1.0 for mathematics, than urban schools. See figure 8. The textbook 0.9 for English, and 0.9 for science) and five shortage was reconfirmed during the classroom ­ secondary school students share between 1 and observation conducted at the grade 5 level; 1.5 textbooks, depending on the subject (1.0 for 84 percent of teachers use textbooks, while only math, 1.7 for English, and 1.0 for science). 8 percent of students use textbooks. In detail, there is little difference in pupil-to- The ambiguity in the responsibilities for textbook ratios between rural and urban schools ­ textbook delivery and in delivery funds and the 10 Summary of the Findings: PETS-QSDS mismatch between textbook policy and imple­ Grade 9 teachers scored approximately mentation exacerbated the shortage in textbook 70  percent on the same tests given to students in 2013. across all subjects and require more subject The current textbook procurement policy knowledge to teach effectively (figure 9).When states that the delivery of textbooks is the teachers were tested using the same examina- ­ responsibility of publishers. Primary schools tion questions that were put to their students, submit textbook orders to the District Education grade 5 teachers scored more than 90 percent in Board Secretaries (DEBS), which convey the mathematics, English, and life skills. Across all orders to publishers on behalf of the schools. subjects, rural teachers performed better than Publishers then deliver the textbooks to the urban teachers. schools. Secondary schools purchase textbooks Teacher absenteeism does not show any sign of directly from publishers, and publishers are improvement over the past decades. responsible for delivering textbooks to the During random unannounced visits to pri- schools. However, because the textbooks are pro- mary schools, the survey team found that teacher cured centrally, contrary to the government’s attendance on a given day was 82 percent (on par official textbook procurement policy, responsi- with the official rate of 83 percent). Furthermore, bility for textbook delivery and budgetary sup- according to official records available at primary port to local units (such as the DEBS and the and secondary schools, 16 percent of primary Provincial Education Office (PEO) for delivering school teachers and 12 percent of secondary textbooks are not spelled out. For this reason, school teachers were absent for more than 50 textbook delivery funds are lacking, and the percent of school days in June and were a major DEBS deduct money from school grants to factor in bringing down the teacher attendance deliver textbooks to schools. rate. During visits, the team found that 54 percent of teachers were engaged in teaching activities (in classrooms or outdoors), 8 percent were in Teachers classrooms but not teaching, and 20 percent were The subject knowledge of secondary school teach­ in school but not involved in teaching activities ers (grade 9) is not sufficient. (figure 10). About 70 percent of teachers’ time is Figure 9  Teacher Assessment in Grades 5 and 9, by Subject and Rural-Urban Location 100 91.8 91.7 95.2 93.1 95.7 89.7 87.0 Score (% of correct answers) 81.9 80 73.2 67.0 69.7 67.5 67.3 62.2 60 40 20 0 Math English Life skills Zambian Math English Science language Grade 5 Grade 9 Urban Rural Summary of the Findings: PETS-QSDS 11 Figure 10  Teachers’ Activities Figure 11  Action Taken by Head Teachers to Address Teacher Absenteeism, by 60 Education Level 52 50 50 41 40 % of teachers 40 % of head teachers 30 32 30 30 25 24 20 20 18 20 16 15 10 8 9 10 2 4 5 0 0 oo g oo d an t in oo n oo g sr hin sr an sr g i td in m rs m ce m nd o e s PE to he er r ou ach as in e as c te N er as g on ac sf th cl tea cl hin cl ch S/ ter O rs ch Te N te ran O a EB at t i ac a t i ot Te te D m t d/ bu N no te at n er en ot n n ar ef sp N W R Su Primary Secondary spent teaching, and about 70 percent of teachers who are present in school are engaged in teach- Figure 12  Transfer Rates of Grade 5 and ing activities. Grade 9 Teachers between Urban and Rural Head teachers’ actions on teacher absenteeism Schools do not seem to solve the problem. 60 Even though teacher absenteeism has been a 53 problem for several decades, 16 percent of pri- 50 mary school head teachers and 9 percent of sec- 44 40 % of teachers ondary school head teachers reported not having taken any action against absent teachers. A large 30 percentage do, however, report teacher absentee- 20 22 24 ism to the DEBS or the PEOs (41 percent at pri- 20 14 13 mary level and 30 percent at secondary) or warn 10 10 teachers (25 percent primary and 24 percent sec- ondary). See figure 11. This may indicate that the 0 Urban Rural Urban Rural report or warning does not seem to have reduced Grade 5 teacher Grade 9 teacher the problem of teacher absenteeism. Previous urban Previous rural Teacher attrition rate is high as is the teacher transfer rate between schools. The teacher attrition rate is hovering around are common: 13 percent of all teachers report- 11 percent, despite two major increases in teacher edly transferred to other schools in 2013. The salaries, and the reason for this attrition is percentage of teachers transferring from urban unknown according to the government. Only to rural schools is high: 53 percent of transfers at 10  percent of attrition is from retirement, and grade 5 and 44 percent of transfers at grade 9 about 8 percent of attrition is due to either death are  from urban to rural schools (figure 12). or illness. It is necessary for the government to The main reasons for teacher transfers between identify the real cause of high teacher attrition. schools are marriage (20 percent) and better Furthermore, teacher transfers between schools location (16 percent); only 26 percent are official 12 Summary of the Findings: PETS-QSDS transfers by the ministry. A large percentage of At the school level, the presence of a library, the teachers said that they wanted to transfer, but few amount of school grant received per child, a lower made an official request. pupil-teacher ratio, and longer school hours are There are several factors correlated with significantly and positively correlated with student teacher absenteeism and the desire to transfer. learning outcomes. Understanding this relationship can help in With regard to school facilities, the presence designing better teacher management policy. of a library is the only one with a significant and Unlike the conventional belief, teachers in positive association with student learning out- a hardship position, school facilities, and physi- comes. Other infrastructure, such as having a cal environment are not significant factors in laboratory, availability of electricity, and number teachers’ desire to transfer or actual requests ­ of latrines per students, are not strongly related for a transfer. The location of the school (rural to student learning. versus urban) is a major factor, although the ­ Among all of these factors, the type of teacher desire to transfer does not increase with the position (unpaid volunteer or paid contract remoteness of schools. Teaching intensity, such teacher) is the most important factor that is as the number of teaching hours, number of positively correlated with student learning. ­ students per classroom, school shifts, and mul- ­ The students of contract teachers have sig­ tigrade teaching, is associated with teachers’ nificantly higher learning outcomes (8 percent desire to transfer or request a transfer. higher for math and 5 percent higher for English) Head teachers’ and line teachers’ motivations than students of noncontract teachers (govern- are important in teacher management. ment teachers). Even after taking into account A head teacher’s motivation is a strong indica- the subject knowledge of contract, the type of tor of teachers’ desire to transfer. If the head position remains important. teacher has a strong intention to progress through In addition, teachers’ subject knowledge, per­ the ranks in 5–10 years, teachers in the school sonalities, and motivations and students’ personal­ will be more likely to want to transfer (11 percent ities and motivation are important factors at the more likely) and to request a transfer (9 percent teacher and student levels. more likely). In contrast, if the head teacher is Teacher subject knowledge and student learn- more interested in being in the same community ing outcomes have a positive relationship in in 5–10 years, teachers will be less likely to grade  5, especially for English and the local request a transfer (10 percent less likely). At the language. For example, a 1 standard deviation ­ same time, if the head teacher perceives that increase in teacher subject knowledge (9 percent community interests and his or her self-interest for English and 14 percent for local language) is overlap (inclusion of the “other” in the self), associated with an increase in student scores by teachers in the school will be less likely to want to 2.0–2.5 percent in English and 4.0–5.0 percent transfer to a different school. in  Zambian language. In math, the relationship In terms of absenteeism, teachers with a between teachers’ subject knowledge and students’ higher calling—meaning they do not separate learning outcomes is positive but very marginal. their work from their personal life and try to ful- At the student level, having a textbook, the fre­ fill their achievement through work—a higher quency of questions that a teacher asks a student, desire for career advancement, and a higher and a student’s school attendance are important desire for pro-social impact have a lower proba- factors in higher learning outcomes. bility of being absent from school. Also, teachers Having a textbook increases student math with higher prosocial motivation have signifi- scores by 3 percent, and having a textbook is cantly fewer absent days. highly correlated with the wealth of the stu- Factors related to student learning outcomes dent’s family. However, the relationship between Summary of the Findings: PETS-QSDS 13 textbooks and student learning persists even than for richer students. Homework and fre- after controlling for wealth of the student’s quency of homework assigned are not signifi- family. Missing one day of school in a week is ­ cant predictors of student learning outcomes, associated with a 1.0–1.5 percent lower score in but the frequency of questions that a teacher math and English, respectively, and the number asks a student is a strong indicator of higher of days missed is higher for poorer students learning outcomes. 14 Summary of the Findings: PETS-QSDS Appendix A Service Indicators of Major Education Inputs in the 2014 Quantitative Service Delivery Survey Table A.1  Indicators of Major Education Inputs in 2014 QSDS Indicator Description School absence rate for pupils (% of days absent Grade 5, 15%. Grade 9, 8% during the previous week of the survey date) School attendance rate for teachers (% of teachers 82% of primary school teachers were present in school during unannounced school present during unannounced visit and number of visit. Primary: 17 days present out of 21 school days (18.5 urban, 17.2 rural). days present in June according to official Secondary: 18 days present out of 21 school days (17.7 urban and 18.2 rural) attendance book) Classroom absence rate (% of teachers absent in During the survey visit (classroom observation), 6.5% of classes were not held. observation exercise) Reasons were (a) teachers were absent from school (20%); (b) teachers were in school but did not show up for class (31%); and (c) class was canceled without notice (48%) Time spent teaching per day Grade 5 teachers (primary): 5.5 hours. Grade 9 teachers (secondary): 4.2 hours Knowledge among teachers (scores on the same Grade 5 teachers: mathematics, English, and life skills, more than 90%. Grade 9 examination questions that were put to their teachers: math, English, and science, approximately 70% students) Infrastructure availability Primary school: potable water, 75%; electricity, 36%; boys per latrine, 83; girls per latrine, 75; pupils per classroom, 70. Secondary: potable water, 93%; electricity, 56%; boys per latrine, 73; girls per latrine, 67; pupils per classroom, 58 Teaching equipment availability Primary school: library, 13%; science lab, 3%. Secondary school: library, 28%; science lab, 22% Share of pupils with textbooks 20% for primary and secondary. Primary school: mathematics, 20%; English and science, 18%. Secondary school: math and science, 20%; English, 34% Pupil-teacher ratio 40 pupils per teacher. Grade 2 schools: urban, 45; rural, 51. Grade 5 schools: urban, 43; rural, rural 37. Grade 7 schools: urban, 39; rural, 31 Student learning (learning assessment score) Grade 5 scores: math, life skills, and Zambian language, 35%; English, 32%. Grade 9 scores: math, 29%; English and science, 36% Service Indicators of Major Education Inputs in the 2014 Quantitative Service Delivery Survey 15 Appendix B Summary Table of Policy Recommendations, Public Expenditure Review Table B.1  Summary Table of Policy Recommendations Subsector Short-term (1–2 years) Medium-term (3–5 years) Primary and Secondary Improve the efficiency of public funding in the education sector • Implement the school conversion plan Education nationwide, using selection criteria • Assess needed budget for textbook procurement and • Procure textbooks in a harmonized distrubtion to all schools manner (centralization or • Plan school mapping and confirm and implement the discentralization) and increase the selection criteria for school conversion plans textbook budget to ensure distribution • Develop a secondary school grant formula that takes into is to school level account equity issues • Analyze education-related areas of LCMS • Conduct regular monitoring and reporting on primary school and other household survey data to grants distribution review possible policy and strategic • Harmonize the education sector data (Education responses to results Management and Information System [EMIS], Examination Council of Zambia [ECZ], projects, etc.) including cleaning up the data discrepancies in Education Statistical Bulletin (ESB) (net enrollment rate [NER], repetition, and dropout rates) • Provide training on data analysis (programming) on household surveys (LCMS [Living Conditions Monitoring Survey], Demographic Health Survey [DHS]) to technical staff in the Ministry of Education (MoE) TEVET Increase the allocation of the public expenditures in TEVET as a share of total government education expenditure because the (private) rate of returns is high and the supply of the TEVET graduates is welcomed by the market but remains limited • Identify well-performing institutions that show healthy financial statements and high employment rates and prioritize in investing the limited government funding to such institutions (rather than establishing new institutions) • Identify institutions that show poor performance in financial and academic management (they are likely to be small institutions in rural areas) • Diversify funding sources through public-private partnerships • Develop the financial capacity of bursary scheme to target more poor but capable students to provide financial support • Identify strategic sectors to strengthen specific skills in those sectors (science, engineering, and technology) • Develop the EMIS capacity Higher Education Improve the efficiency of the public spending on higher • Overhaul the current bursary scheme education—arrears of public universities are compensated by and establish a new loan scheme with the MoE more effective targeting mechanism (possibly linking with the national • Establish a better targetting mechanism to identify poor pension scheme) students who cannot enroll in university without bursary • Gradually introduce performance-based • Study a new sustainable loan scheme with a strong mechanism funding not only to public but also to in which the MoE tracks down students for repayment private universities • Conduct a thorough assessment of resource management • Strategically provide public funding to at public universities and mutually agree between public more support to science, technology, universities and the MoE on a new funding mechanism and engineering fields (such as performance-based funding) and science, technology, and engineering • Identify three to four national priority fields in higher education, especially science, technology, and engineering 16 Summary Table of Policy Recommendations, Public Expenditure Review Appendix C Summary Table of Policy Recommendations, Public Expenditure Tracking Survey and Quantitative Service Delivery Survey Table C.1  Short- and Long-Term Strategies for Achieving the Overarching Goals for Zambia’s Education Policy Type of policy Short-term strategies (1–2 years) Medium-term strategies (3–5 years) Textbook policy • Review textbook procurement capacity at both • Inform and build the capacity of all DEBS and the MESVTEE and establish clear stakeholders involved in textbook procurement guidelines regarding textbook policy, including book selection procedures and distribution mechanisms and budgets • Ensure that sufficient budget is released to schools for distributing all textbooks with the new curriculum School grant distribution • Enforce the school grant formula used by the • Decentralize financial disbursement of school DEBS to distribute school grant funds to grants from MESVTEE or the Ministry of Finance primary and basic schools and monitor how directly to school bank accounts well it is followed, including the public dissemination of transparent and clear guidelines regarding grant distribution Teacher recruitment, deployment, • Conduct more research on teachers (including • Using results of the teacher study, revise, and attendance untrained, “contract” teachers and volunteers) implement, and enforce teacher deployment to review how to improve attrition, effectiveness, regulations and explore other types of teachers and attendance who could teach more effectively • Conduct a pilot on how the motivation of the • Design and implement a teacher recruitment head teacher and classroom teachers can and deployment policy based on the findings of improve the retention of quality teachers the pilot study on teacher motivation • Prioritize training on leadership and • Revise the monitoring and evaluation strategy management of head teachers to improve to include explicit measurements of teacher teacher attendance and delivery attendance • Have the Ministry of General Education Permanent Secretary send a circular to the PEO, the DEBS, and head teachers advising them to enforce teacher attendance and refer to human resources and public service guidelines Teacher performance and • Review teacher evaluation systems (such as • Devise an effective teacher evaluation system training the Annual Performance Appraisal System) to for recruitment, performance evaluation, and see what is fit for purpose feedback on all teachers and administrators at • Develop a new way of assessing teachers the school and district levels (including head teachers) by developing • Continuously monitor teacher performance and teacher performance metrics provide feedback with a form of teacher training • Review and revise teacher recruitment procedures (at central and decentralized levels) Note: DEBS = District Education Board Secretaries; MESVTEE = Ministry of Education, Science, Vocational Training, and Early Education; PEO = Provincial Education Offices. Summary Table of Policy Recommendations, PETS-QSDS 17 SKU K8642