58629 Commodity Markets Review November 8, 2010 DECPG, The World Bank Non-energy commodity dollar prices in Agriculture dollar prices jumped 5.9 October rose for the fourth straight month, percent in October, up a fifth straight month, up 3.3 percent, mainly reflecting a weaker but fell 0.3 percent in euros. Cotton prices dollar--down 6.2 percent versus the euro and soared 21 percent to an all-time nominal high 3.5 percent against a basket of currencies. Dollar due to low stocks, strong demand and supply prices rose across commodity sectors, including tightness. Maize prices climbed 15 percent agriculture, metals, fertilizers--and oil. following significantly lower yield estimates by Crude oil dollar prices increased 7.4 the USDA. Rubber prices rose 11 percent percent in October, averaging $81.72/bbl, but because of heavy rains in Thailand, Malaysia rose just 1.1% in euros. Dollar prices shot above and Indonesia. Several oilseed prices rose $86/bbl in early November as global crude oil sharply due to tight supplies, strong demand inventories continue to fall, particularly the large from China, and concerns about Latin American overhang of floating storage, although U.S. soybean prospects. Sugar prices rose 9 percent stocks remain high. Product stocks also dropped on a lower-than-expected U.S. crop, and weather due to autumn refinery maintenance and strikes related shortfalls in Australia and Brazil. in France. However, refinery runs are ramping Base metal dollar prices surged 7.9 percent up following turnarounds, and China's crude in October, up for a fourth straight month, but import demand surged in September, reflecting only 1.6 percent in euros. Tin prices jumped 16 new refinery capacity. OPEC met October 14th percent on strong demand in China, declining and agreed to leave production quotas inventories, falling production in Indonesia from unchanged. However, OPEC's previous "ideal" heavy rains, and output cuts in China in order to price range of $70-80/bbl has expanded to save energy. Zinc, lead and aluminum prices $70-90/bbl, a range that the Saudi oil minister rose sharply on flattening/declining inventories, deemed "comfortable." but these markets remain well supplied. Copper Natural gas prices in the U.S. dropped 12.1 prices rose 8 percent on falling stocks and percent in October to $3.4/mmbtu, due to mild concerns about mine supply growth. Two weather that kept demand moderate, and large physically-backed copper ETFs were filed with seasonal injections into storage that are the SEC that could begin trading in 2011 and approaching record levels. U.S. gas production may impact both inventories and demand. Silver continues to increase, in part due to the steady prices surged 14 percent due to strong growth in un-conventional shale gas output. investment and industrial demand. Major Price Indices Agriculture Prices - Sub-Indices Indices of Nominal US$ Prices (2000=100) Indices of Nominal US$ Prices (2000=100) 350 275 Base Metals Beverages 250 300 225 250 Energy 200 200 Food Agriculture 175 Raw Materials 150 150 100 125 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Prepared in the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) by Shane Streifel, John Baffes and Betty Dow. Katherine Rollins is task assistant. 1 Major Movers October1 falling stocks and government-forced production Cotton prices soared 20.9 percent, the largest cutbacks in China to meet energy targets. nominal monthly gain during the past 50 years, Copper prices rose 7.6 percent on falling stocks, due to the low level of global stocks, strong strong Chinese import demand, and potential demand by spin millers, and supply shortfalls. impact on demand and stocks from SEC filings Tin prices jumped 16.0 percent due to strong of two physically-backed Exchange Traded demand in China, declining inventories, falling Funds that could begin trading in early 2011. production in Indonesia from heavy rains, and Crude oil prices increased 7.4 percent recent output cuts in China to save energy. (1.1 percent in euros) partly reflecting falling Maize and sorghum prices surged 14.5 percent stocks and higher crude demand as refiners ramp and 8.7 percent, respectively, following a USDA up from autumn maintenance. update that significantly lowered yield estimates Natural gas (U.S.) prices plunged 12.1 percent in the U.S. and other countries, indicating a tight on high inventories, growing production, and market for coarse grains. subdued demand because of mild weather. Silver prices increased 13.9 percent due to October Percent Changes in Price (Nominal US $) strong investment and industrial demand. Phosphate rock, DAP and TSP fertilizer prices -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 rose 12.0, 9.5, and 6.3 percent, respectively, on Cotton, A Index 89.5 strong demand in the U.S. and Brazil, partly Tin 75.5 driven by higher agriculture prices. Maize Palmkernel oil and coconut oil prices (close Silver Phosphate rock substitutes) rose 11.9 percent and 10.7 percent, Palmkernel oil 94.2 respectively, reflecting tight supplies, and Rubber, Singapore 66.9 because copra production in the Philippines is Soybean oil expected to decline 25 percent in 2011. Coconut oil 99.9 Zinc Rubber prices increased 11.1 percent due to DAP 91.6 tight supplies because of heavy rains in Sugar, world Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, the world's Lead Sorghum dominant natural rubber suppliers. Aluminum Soybean oil and palm oil prices (close Palm oil substitutes) rose 10.7 percent and 7.9 percent, Copper respectively, due to strong demand by China, Crude oil, average spot TSP 84.6 higer production of biodiesel, export restrictions Gold of sunflower oil by Ukraine, and expected Nickel competition from grains for land. Coffee, robusta Zinc prices increased 10.3 percent on flattening Groundnut oil Soybeans stock levels and warehouse financing deals that Urea, bulk have tightened the spot market; however the Soybean meal global market remains well supplied. Rice, Thai, 5% Coal, Australia Sugar prices rose 9.3 percent reflecting a lower Sawnwood Malaysia Oct '10/Sep '10 than expected U.S. crop and weather-related Cocoa shortfalls in Australia and Brazil. Logs, Malaysia Oct '10/Oct '09 Lead prices increased 8.9 percent due to strong Beef Tea, avg 3 auctions demand in China's auto and battery-powered Natural gas, Europe bike sectors; however the lead market is well Wheat, US, HRW supplied and stocks are high. Potassium chloride -23.0 Aluminum prices rose 8.5 percent because of LNG Coffee, arabica Natural gas, US 1 Percent change of average October 2010 prices compared to average September 2010 prices in nominal U.S. dollars (graph includes 12-month changes in grey). 2 COMMODITY PRICE DATA Annual averages Quarterly averages M onthly averages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Oct Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Aug Sep Oct Commodity Unit 2008 2009 2010 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 Energy Coal, Australia a/ $/mt 1 0 27.1 71.84 96.14 71.31 77.66 95.19 99.49 93.55 89.78 94.90 96.72 Crude oil, avg, spot a/ $/bbl 96.99 61.76 77.39 68.21 75.50 77.06 78.18 75.51 75.83 76.1 2 81 .72 Crude oil, Brent a/ $/bbl 97.64 61.86 77.82 68.37 74.97 76.65 78.69 76.41 76.69 77.79 82.92 Crude oil, Dubai a/ $/bbl 93.78 61.75 76.40 68.07 75.46 75.86 77.98 74.04 74.1 8 75.27 80.34 Crude oil, West Texas Int. a/ $/bbl 99.56 61.65 77.97 68.21 76.08 78.67 77.85 76.08 76.60 75.29 81 .90 Natural gas Index a/ 2000=100 267.9 153.5 156.4 123.3 149.4 170.3 147.5 155.2 157.5 150.8 144.7 Natural gas, Europe a/ $/mmbtu 13.41 8.71 8.21 6.91 7.81 8.84 7.51 8.26 8.45 8.28 8.29 Natural gas, US a/ $/mmbtu 8.86 3.95 4.47 3.17 4.36 5.15 4.32 4.28 4.31 3.90 3.43 Natural gas LNG, Japan a/ $/mmbtu 12.53 8.94 10.85 7.91 9.33 10.32 10.95 1 1 .24 1 .30 1 10 1 .1 1 1 .00 Non Energy Commodities Agriculture Beverages Cocoa b/ c/kg 257.7 288.9 316.3 296.4 341.8 329.7 321 .0 306.2 309.1 287.4 292.6 Coffee, Arabica b/ c/kg 308.2 317.1 412.2 322.7 341.7 353.7 392.0 468.5 466.5 491.0 479.8 Coffee, robusta b/ c/kg 232.1 164.4 167.3 160.1 156.4 150.8 61 1 .0 183.2 182.3 179.2 188.0 Tea, auctions (3), average b/ c/kg 242.0 272.4 285.6 303.6 301.9 279.0 276.4 295.1 299.3 299.6 304.3 Tea, Colombo auctions b/ c/kg 278.9 313.7 325.8 356.1 338.0 335.1 31 6.2 322.1 327.0 334.9 337.2 Tea, Kolkata auctions b/ c/kg 225.5 251 .5 275.9 273.0 284.4 215.8 274.0 320.6 320.3 318.2 327.4 Tea, Mombasa auctions b/ c/kg 221.8 252.0 255.1 281 .7 283.2 286.1 238.9 242.7 250.8 245.8 248.3 Food Fats and Oils Coconut oil b/ $/mt 1,224 725 1,025 711 734 834 955 ,1 1 59 1 70 ,1 1,275 ,41 1 1 Copra $/mt 816 480 683 469 491 557 634 769 772 847 947 Groundnut oil b/ $/mt 2,1 31 ,1 1 84 1,337 ,1 1 33 ,1 1 52 1,359 1,352 1,301 1,334 1,270 1,331 Palm oil b/ $/mt 949 683 847 679 732 808 813 875 905 912 984 Palmkernel oil $/mt ,1 1 30 700 1,076 700 760 922 1,034 ,1 1 61 1 65 ,1 1,260 ,41 1 0 Soybean meal b/ $/mt 424 408 368 431 412 369 342 378 383 396 409 Soybean oil b/ $/mt 1,258 849 948 856 921 917 876 984 1,002 1,042 ,1 1 54 Soybeans b/ $/mt 523 437 432 454 439 417 409 452 457 470 492 Grains Barley b/ $/mt 200.5 128.3 153.2 122.0 145.5 143.6 146.9 61 1 .9 1 .2 61 168.1 174.6 Maize b/ $/mt 223.1 165.5 174.2 51 1 .3 167.8 162.7 157.7 1 .7 81 175.6 205.9 235.8 Rice, Thailand, 5% b/ $/mt 650.2 555.0 482.0 539.0 542.3 535.3 452.4 457.0 452.8 476.5 486.0 Rice, Thailand, 25% $/mt n.a. 458.1 434.1 441 .4 462.8 477.0 399.1 41 8.5 41 2.0 448.0 457.0 Rice, Thailand, 35% $/mt n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. * Rice,Thai, A1.Special / Super $/mt 482.3 326.4 376.3 309.7 346.1 400.7 333.8 376.9 369.0 41 2.0 428.3 Sorghum $/mt 207.8 51 1 .1 156.0 139.3 163.8 156.9 142.6 153.6 143.4 184.9 201 .0 Wheat, Canada $/mt 454.6 300.5 296.4 271 .2 283.4 279.0 260.9 326.1 326.0 365.0 365.6 Wheat, US, HRW b/ $/mt 326.0 224.1 210.2 208.8 205.4 195.4 177.4 237.9 246.2 271 .7 270.2 Wheat US SRW $/mt 271 .5 186.0 216.9 165.2 195.6 193.5 186.9 253.4 261 .6 276.3 267.5 Other Food Bananas EU $/mt ,1 1 88 1 45 ,1 993 ,1 8 11 1,032 ,01 1 4 1,029 933 865 974 1,000 Bananas US b/ $/mt 844 847 860 826 813 781 862 922 899 880 908 Fishmeal $/mt ,1 1 33 1,230 1 2 ,71 1,276 1,535 1,660 ,81 1 4 1,663 1,629 1,645 ,71 1 2 Meat, beef b/ c/kg 31 3.8 263.6 330.3 273.2 273.5 31 4.2 342.4 330.9 336.5 335.1 340.9 Meat, chicken b/ c/kg 169.6 71 1 .7 172.2 173.9 165.1 167.2 173.0 176.0 176.0 175.9 173.9 Meat, sheep c/kg 458.5 427.6 487.8 453.3 450.1 447.6 486.8 508.0 528.3 533.4 550.3 Oranges b/ $/mt ,1 1 07 909 1,090 861 ,1 1 07 1,009 1,084 ,1 1 63 1 39 ,1 1,047 ,1 1 33 Shrimp, Mexico b/ c/kg 1,069 945 n.a. 970 864 827 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. ,1 1 79 Sugar EU domestic b/ c/kg 69.69 52.44 44.24 55.43 49.11 46.38 42.66 43.29 43.21 43.90 45.41 Sugar US domestic b/ c/kg 46.86 54.88 78.07 57.31 70.48 84.31 69.62 78.20 77.1 7 84.15 84.29 Sugar, world b/ c/kg 28.21 40.00 44.33 46.98 50.29 51 .82 34.93 42.94 40.71 49.63 54.26 Raw M aterials Timber Logs, Cameroon $/cum 526.9 421.5 425.6 414.9 449.5 431.4 408.0 426.3 425.6 432.0 458.9 Logs, Malaysia b/ $/cum 292.3 287.2 271.8 279.6 271.1 253.6 253.5 293.5 294.7 310.9 316.4 Plywood c/sheets 645.5 564.6 566.6 561.5 558.4 557.2 566.3 572.3 571.8 575.4 578.1 Sawnwood, Cameroon $/cum 958.3 748.9 807.6 779.0 806.3 804.1 787.1 1 81 .8 813.7 827.1 867.4 Sawnwood, Malaysia b/ $/cum 889.1 805.5 841.6 771.4 807.4 787.8 832.6 883.7 892.2 887.6 904.0 Woodpulp $/mt 820.2 614.6 861.8 627.7 715.6 780.9 875.5 912.9 918.0 906.6 910.0 Other Raw M aterials Cotton A Index b/ c/kg 157.4 138.2 202.9 41 1 .9 157.7 178.8 199.3 205.2 199.2 230.9 279.1 Cotton Memphis c/kg 61 1 .3 145.3 n.a. 148.8 172.4 183.6 200.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Rubber, US c/kg 284.1 214.6 368.5 221.0 284.7 345.2 381.5 360.7 356.5 375.9 422.8 Rubber, Singapore b/ c/kg 258.6 192.1 347.9 199.3 256.5 318.6 372.7 337.5 331 .6 353.3 392.5 continued on next page a/ Included in the energy index (2000=100) b/ Included in the non-energy index (2000=1 00) c/ Steel not included in the non-energy index d/ base metals plus iron ore e/ Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc $ = US dollar ¢ = US cent bbl = barrel cum = cubic meter dmtu = Dry Metric Ton Unit kg = kilogram mmbtu = million British thermal units mt = metric ton toz = troy oz n.a. = not available n.q. = no quotation 3 COMMODITY PRICE DATA Annual averages Quarterly averages M onthly averages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Oct Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Aug Sep Oct 2008 2009 2010 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 Fertilizers DAP b/ $/mt 967.2 323.1 482.6 309.6 316.9 464.8 458.2 494.1 496.1 525.0 575.0 Phosphate rock b/ $/mt 345.6 1 .7 21 1 1 9.6 90.0 90.0 102.1 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 140.0 Potassium chloride b/ $/mt 570.1 630.4 328.8 506.8 423.0 334.0 316.1 334.2 345.0 337.5 335.0 TSP b/ $/mt 879.4 257.4 364.6 224.7 235.7 31 6.9 357.4 389.6 380.8 428.0 455.0 Urea, E. Europe, bulk b/ $/mt 492.7 249.6 272.2 241.6 248.3 281 .0 237.2 279.2 273.0 315.0 329.4 M etals and M inerals Aluminum b/ $/mt 2,573 1,665 2,1 39 ,81 1 2 2,003 2,1 63 2,096 2,090 2,1 8 1 2,1 62 2,347 Copper b/ $/mt 6,956 5,150 7,280 5,859 6,648 7,232 7,027 7,243 7,284 7,709 8,292 Gold $/toz 872 973 1 94 ,1 960 ,1 1 02 1 09 ,1 ,1 1 96 1,227 1 6 ,21 1,271 1,342 Iron ore b/ c/dmtu 140.6 01 1 .0 157.7 01 1 .0 01 1 .0 1 .0 01 152.0 21 2.0 21 2.0 21 2.0 182.0 Lead b/ c/kg 209.1 71 1 .9 209.9 192.8 229.3 222.1 195.0 203.2 207.5 21 8.4 238.0 Nickel b/ $/mt ,1 1 21 1 14,655 21,469 17,700 17,528 19,959 22,476 21 91 ,1 ,41 21 3 22,643 23,807 Silver c/toz 1,500 1,469 1,864 1,477 1,760 1,693 1,838 1,901 1,849 2,061 2,347 Steel products index c/ 2000=100 289 227 229 211 207 21 1 241 232 230 235 235 c/ $/mt Steel cr coilsheet, Japan, Reinstated 966 783 809 700 700 725 838 850 850 850 850 c/ $/mt Steel hr coilsheet, Japan, Reinstated 883 683 709 600 600 625 738 750 750 750 750 Steel, rebar, Japan, Reinstated c/ $/mt 760 486 565 500 522 546 621 533 530 530 550 c/ Steel wire rod, Japan, Reinstated $/mt ,01 1 0 969 725 857 81 4 751 767 678 670 670 660 Tin b/ c/kg 1,851 1,357 1,932 1,459 1 7 ,51 1,721 1,786 2,055 2,075 2,270 2,634 Zinc b/ c/kg 187.5 165.5 21 3.6 176.1 221 .4 228.9 202.6 201 .3 204.5 21 5.1 237.2 NEW World Bank commodity price indices for low and middle income countries( 2000 =100) Energy 342.0 21 4.3 265.8 230.3 256.1 266.1 267.7 259.5 260.1 261.1 277.6 Non Energy Commodities 272.0 21 3.2 261 .2 21 9.8 235.2 244.2 252.2 275.6 276.0 287.0 296.6 Agriculture 229.5 197.8 223.4 199.5 21 2.6 21 6.6 21 5.4 228.7 228.5 238.1 252.1 Beverages 21 0.0 21 9.9 250.4 226.4 247.9 242.5 246.9 259.3 260.4 255.9 257.3 Food 247.4 205.1 21 5.7 206.4 21 3.7 21 3.1 201 .0 221.9 222.2 234.2 248.8 Fats and Oils 277.3 21 6.2 232.6 220.9 224.5 224.7 21 9.7 241.1 246.2 252.3 269.1 Grains 281 .7 21 4.9 206.2 202.3 21 0.8 205.1 186.6 212.5 21 0.8 234.3 249.6 Other Food 177.1 1 .6 81 202.1 91 1 .2 202.0 205.1 189.4 205.3 201 .1 210.5 221.4 Raw Materials 195.7 168.7 228.5 168.9 192.0 1 21 .9 234.4 229.5 227.6 238.3 257.2 Timber 150.5 138.9 1 .9 41 133.6 137.3 132.7 138.6 149.9 1 .2 51 152.4 155.2 Other Raw Materials 245.3 201 .4 323.1 207.5 251 .8 298.6 339.1 316.5 1 31 .2 332.3 368.8 Fertilizers 566.7 293.0 268.8 252.1 242.8 259.0 253.3 278.5 276.4 299.8 315.3 Metals and Minerals d/ 325.7 235.6 337.9 257.6 280.8 299.0 327.5 371.4 373.3 385.8 385.7 Base Metals e/ 287.9 208.9 289.2 236.0 264.6 287.0 280.9 286.5 288.9 304.3 328.5 a/ Included in the energy index (2000=100) b/ Included in the non-energy index (2000=1 00) c/ Steel not included in the non-energy index d/ base metals plus iron ore e/ Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc $ = US dollar ¢ = US cent bbl = barrel cum = cubic meter dmtu = Dry Metric Ton Unit kg = kilogram mmbtu = million British thermal units mt = metric ton toz = troy oz n.a. = not available n.q. = no quotation 4 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2005-2010 5 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2005-2010 Cont'd 6 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2005-2010 Cont'd 7