The World Bank                                                                                                                                                 Report No: ISR15145


                                                                                                         Implementation Status & Results
                                                                                                               Afghanistan
                                                                                                ARTF - Recurrent and Capital Costs (P091258)
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                         Operation Name: ARTF - Recurrent and Capital Costs (P091258)                           Project Stage:   Implementation         Seq.No: 12     Status: ARCHIVED    Archive Date:    30-Jun-2014
                                                                                  Country: Afghanistan                                   Approval FY:        2002
                         Product Line: Recipient Executed Activities              Region: SOUTH ASIA                                     Lending Instrument: Specific Investment Loan
                         Implementing Agency(ies):

                         Key Dates
                         Board Approval Date    13-May-2002                Original Closing Date 30-Jun-2006           Planned Mid Term Review Date                            Last Archived ISR Date 24-Dec-2013
                         Effectiveness Date     13-May-2002                Revised Closing Date 30-Jun-2018            Actual Mid Term Review Date

                         Project Development Objectives
                         Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document)

                         The development objective of the recurrent cost component of the ARTF is to provide a coordinated financing mechanism so that the Government of Afghanistan can
                         make predictable, timely, and accurate payments for approved recurrent costs related to: i) salaries and wages of civil servants, and ii) government operating and
                         maintenance expenditures, except security.
                         Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project?

                            Yes            No

                         Component(s)
                         Component Name                                                                                                              Component Cost
                         Civil service salary payments                                                                                                       2267.00
                         O&M payments                                                                                                                         608.00
                         Incentive Program                                                                                                                     29.30

                         Overall Ratings
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                                                                       Previous Rating                      Current Rating
                         Progress towards achievement of PDO           Satisfactory                         Satisfactory
                         Overall Implementation Progress (IP)          Satisfactory                         Satisfactory
                         Overall Risk Rating                                                                Substantial

                         Implementation Status Overview
                         Satisfactory.
                         1392 Plan vs Actual

                         For SY1392 a ceiling for the Recurrent Cost Window of US$332 million was set out in the ARTF Financing Strategy SY1391-1393. The ceiling is made up of US$150 million in


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                             The World Bank                                                                                                                                         Report No: ISR15145



                         recurrent cost base financing, US$150 million for the Incentive Program (IP) and US$32 million for the new O&M Facility. Later an amount of US$ 15 million was added to the base
                         line re the USA preferenced contribution to the RC.

                         Total disbursements under the ARTF RC in FY1392 amounted to US$ 256.1 million comprising reimbursements of US$ 150 million of SY 1392 base line, US$ 32 million from SY
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                         1392 O&M ceiling and US$ 29.3 of the SY 1391 IP earned but not disbursed in FY 1391 and US$ 44.8 for 1392 IP. 6 benchmarks for 1392 IP were achieved. Four of these have
                         been disbursed for US$ 44.8 and 2 for US$ 22.4 were covered by the TR of May 2014 and are pending approval by the IPWG along with the Revenue matching grants for US$ 18.8.

                         As such, to date a total of US$ 226.8 has been disbursed against the 1393 ceiling, with US$ 40.8 re IP covered in the fourth TR pending for a total of US$ 267 against the original
                         ceiling of US$ 332 million. The difference of US$ 64 million is attributed to the shortfall in IP ( plan of US$ 150 against US$ 86 million earned )

                         1393 Plan

                         The plan for FY 1393 in line with the Financing Strategy is presented in the last column of the Table 1 below but this does not reflect an additional US$ 15 for the Ad Hoc contribution
                         from the US preferenced to the RC TF which has been disbursed.

                         Moreover disbursements in 1393 will also include the 1392 IP benchmarks earned but not paid in 1392 included the amounts of revenue matching of US$ 18.8 and 2 structural
                         benchmarks for 22.4 noted above.

                         O&M

                         The O&M facility is intended to incentivize civilian O&M spending. The facility is also intended to promote improved O&M systems in select line ministries. The indicative allocation for
                         the O&M facility is $32 million for 1392 and $100 million for 1393. The basic principle underlying the facility is as follows. A baseline is defined using the average of O&M spending
                         (civilian operating budget code 22) for the last two years. For each dollar spent above the baseline, the facility provides an incentive payment of 1.5 dollars up to a maximum of the
                         indicative allocation for that year. The participating ministries for 1392 were Ministry of Education (MoE) and Ministry of Public Health (MoPH), while the participating ministries for
                         1393 are MoE, MoPH, Ministry of Public Works (MoPW) and Civil Aviation Authority (CAA).

                         The performance in 1392 against the benchmark of total O&M appears in the table below. Also in the table is the performance against the targets for the participating ministries.

                         Table 1. Baseline and Actual O&M Spending for 1392
                                             Actual 1390       Actual 1391        Prorated      Baseline 1392         Actual 1392       Incentive
                                   Millions Afs      Million US$
                         Civilian O&M                  18,079           19,579         18,829    18,032               0
                         Participating (MoE+MoPH) 2,296                  2,945 2,620      3,756          30.7
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                         There is proposal now with the IPWG to modify the O&M MOU to move from annual baselines and disbursements to quarterly baselines and disbursements. With an annual baseline,
                         the determination of the incentive payment can only be made at the end of the year. Quarterly baselines allow disbursement of incentive payments over the course of the year in a
                         robust fashion, after determination of the amount. The second modification is to provide the flexibility each quarter to exceed the baseline either at the aggregate or at the level of the
                         participating ministries. This would provide an ex ante incentive at both levels without any ex post double counting. The quarterly baselines for 1393 at the aggregate and at the level
                         of the participating ministries are presented in the table below.

                         The amount by which the 1393 O&M allotment could be reduced in response to the 1392 shortfall from the target of total O&M has not yet been decided by the IPWG.

                         Trust Fund Balance



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                         The cumulative grant allocation to May 28, 2014 is US$ million 3,074,321,009.24 and the TF balances is US$ 70.9 million reflecting an opening balance in 1393 of US$ 25.9 million,
                         transfers of US$ 120 million and disbursements of US$ 75 million.
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                         Monitoring

                         The MA team finalized the testing of FY 1391, and is continuing to monitor the expenditure in FY 1392.

                         For consistency, the sampling methodology agreed by the Management Committee with J&B has been applied for the remainder of FY 1391 by BDO who took over monitoring in SY
                         1391. An initial sample for FY 1391 was selected and the full sampling methodology was approved by the WB TTL in line with the Technical Proposal. Field work, testing of
                         transactions on site, has been completed for quarter 1 (by J&B) and quarter 2 and 3 by BDO (SY 1391 had only 3 quarters. Testing covered 5,231 transactions and included target
                         and randomly selected transaction. Inferences of ineligiblity for the representative samples are made with 95% confidence. Monitoring for FY 1392 were planned on a same strategy
                         and methodology are well advanced and the report for the first 3 quarters presented to the WB.

                         Eligibility 1391

                         Eligibility results for FY 1391 present a deterioration in overall ineligibility of 37.31%, the highest in the ARTF RC history, taking into account that SY 1382 was calculated on a
                         different basis and in SY 1387 all O&M after the first quarter was ruled ineligible. The performance arises from a deterioration in both O&M and Payroll.


                         Payroll. 37% of all payroll was found ineligible. Of the total Payroll ineligible expenditures, 56% arises from security salaries being included in the submissions for reimbursement.
                         This at least does not represent a failure in compliance with controls or provision of documentary support for expenditures.


                         Ineligibility for O&M including pension came to 57.59 %. . O&M comprise true O&M and pensions.
                         Ineligibility for O&M came 65% and of the total ineligibility of O&M 58% arises from some exception to the procurement rules and procedures. Ineligibility for pensions came to 20 % ,
                         the cause of which is 60% of the cases was unavailability of the files for review.




                         Eligibility SY 1392
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                         The BDO Team has finalized the testing of samples for the first three quarters of FY 1392 but these are not reflected in the table 4 above since extrapolation has not been applied as
                         testing of the samples has not been completed.

                         Monitoring of expenditures up to Q4 of FY 1392 indicates 49% of the sample tested is ineligible for O&M excluding pensions, 15% for payroll. Extrapolation will modify these
                         percentages for ineligibility for the population.


                         Locations
                         Country                                                First Administrative Division                  Location                                     Planned               Actual
                         Afghanistan                                            Kabul                                          Wilayat-e Kabul                                                              ✔




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                             The World Bank                                                                                                                  Report No: ISR15145



                         Results
                         Project Development Objective Indicators
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                         Indicator Name                                  Core Unit of Measure              Baseline      Current                             End Target
                         Assurance that goods and services procured            Text             Value      100%          75%                                 100%
                         with ARTF funds are used exclusively for                               Date       15-Dec-2005   29-May-2014                         31-Dec-2018
                         authorized purposes in obtained through MA
                                                                                                Comments   OK            Disbursements against SY
                         agent's review of withdrawal applications
                                                                                                                         1392 monitored for 3 qrts
                                                                                                                         only. Work in underway in line
                                                                                                                         with plan to complete
                                                                                                                         monitoring by August.

                         Intermediate Results Indicators
                         Indicator Name                                  Core Unit of Measure              Baseline      Current                             End Target
                         Disbursement as percentage of annual ceiling          Text             Value      96.6%         67.7%                               100%
                                                                                                Date       15-Dec-2005   29-May-2014                         28-Feb-2013
                                                                                                Comments                 79 % US$ 283 million), of FY
                                                                                                                         1392 ceiling has been
                                                                                                                         "earned". Of this , US$ 241
                                                                                                                         million has been disbursed.
                                                                                                                         SY 1392 baseline and O&M
                                                                                                                         fully disbursed. Of the IP
                                                                                                                         portion, US$ 44.8 million was
                                                                                                                         disbursed while another US$
                                                                                                                         41.2 million will be disbursed
                                                                                                                         in June, 2014.
                         Percentage of withdrawal applications                 Text             Value      100%          100%                                100%
                         reviewed and approved by the MA                                        Date       15-Dec-2005   29-May-2014                         28-Feb-2013
                                                                                                Comments                 100% of withdrawals in 1392
                                                                                                                         and 1392 that have been
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                                                                                                                         presented to the WB have
                                                                                                                         been paid.
                         Amount of ineligible expenditures reviewed by         Text             Value      $4.6m                                             $0m
                         the MA pending recovery                                                Date       15-Dec-2005   31-Oct-2013                         28-Feb-2013
                                                                                                Comments                 All identified ineligibles for SY
                                                                                                                         1392 are recovered by
                                                                                                                         substitution in the month
                                                                                                                         following results of monitoring.




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                         Percentage of eligible payroll expenditures               Text              Value          84.9%                                                                    100%
                         reviewed by the MA vs submitted                                             Date           15-Dec-2005                            31-Oct-2013                       28-Feb-2013
                                                                                                     Comments                                              For SY 1392 all HQ payroll
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                                                                                                                                                           and 97% prov payroll subject
                                                                                                                                                           to statistical testing( 6
                                                                                                                                                           provinces not visited re
                                                                                                                                                           security).
                         Percentage of eligible O&M expenditures                   Text              Value          72.1%                                                                    100%
                         reviewed by the MA vs submitted                                             Date           15-Dec-2005                            31-Oct-2013                       28-Feb-2013
                                                                                                     Comments                                              This % is the sum of all
                                                                                                                                                           groups of expenditures
                                                                                                                                                           subject to testing; negligible
                                                                                                                                                           amt of prov O&M not covered.
                         Percentage of Monitoring Agent reports                    Text              Value          95%                                    100%                              100%
                         accepted by the Bank as TF Administrator                                    Date           15-Dec-2005                            29-May-2014                       31-Dec-2018
                                                                                                     Comments                                              All M&A reports have been
                                                                                                                                                           accepted. Final resutls SY
                                                                                                                                                           1391 Monitoring Report by
                                                                                                                                                           BDO is received reflecting
                                                                                                                                                           adjustments relating to docs
                                                                                                                                                           not initially available .
                         ARTF Recurrent Cost Audit reports/opinions                Text              Value          Qualified Adverse opinion              100%                              Qualified opinion, geographic
                         accepted by the Bank                                                                                                                                                scope & time limitation
                                                                                                     Date           15-Dec-2004                            29-May-2014                       28-Feb-2013
                                                                                                     Comments                                              SY 1391 audit rec'd ,
                                                                                                                                                           accepted. SY 1392 not yet
                                                                                                                                                           due.


                         Data on Financial Performance (as of 29-Apr-2014)
                         Financial Agreement(s) Key Dates
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                         Project               Ln/Cr/Tf                Status             Approval Date                 Signing Date               Effectiveness Date        Original Closing Date    Revised Closing Date
                         P091258               TF-50577                Effective          13-May-2002                   13-May-2002                13-May-2002               30-Jun-2006              30-Jun-2018

                         Disbursements (in Millions)
                         Project               Ln/Cr/Tf                Status             Currency           Original              Revised              Cancelled          Disbursed          Undisbursed      % Disbursed
                         P091258               TF-50577                Effective          USD                           3,074.32             3,074.32               0.00          3,003.42             70.90         98.00


                         Disbursement Graph


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                             The World Bank                                                                                                                                   Report No: ISR15145
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                         Key Decisions Regarding Implementation
                         Once the final compliance rates for SY 1391 are reported, if there is a deterioration from SY 1390, possible remedies must be discussed again; including pro rata reimbursement of
                         the recurrent costs.

                         Restructuring History
                         There has been no restructuring to date.

                         Related Projects
                         There are no related projects.
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