World Bank Reprint Series: Number Twenty Hollis B3. Chenery The Structuralist Approach to 1 evelopment - .-olicy Reprinted from The American Economic Review 65 (May 1975) The most recent editions of Catalog of Publications, describing the full range of World Bank publications, and World Bank Research Program, describing each of the continuing research programs of the Bank, are avail- able without charge from: The World Bank, Publications Unit, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. WORLD BANK BOOKS ABOUT DEVELOPMENT Research Publications The Mining Industry and the Developing Countries by Rex Bossoni and Bension Varon, published by Oxford University Press, 1977 Patterns in Household Demand and Saving by Co,-stantino Lluch, Alan Powell, and Ross Williams, piublished by Oxford University Press, 1977 Unskilled Labor for Development: Its Economic Cost by Orville McDiarmid, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1977 Electricity Economics: Essays and Case Studies by Ralph Turvey and Dennis Anderson, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1977 Housing for Low Income Urban Families: Economics and Policy in the Develop- ing World by Orville F. Grimes, Jr., published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1976 Village Water Supply: Economics and Policy in the Developing World by Robert Saunders and Jeremy Warford, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1976 Economic Analysis of Projects by Lyn Squire and Herman G. van der Tak, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975 The Design of Rural Development: Lessons from Africa by Uma Lele, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975 Economy-Wide Models and Development Planning edited by Charles R. Blitzer, Peter B. Clark, and Lance Taylor, published by Oxford University Press, 1975 Patterns of Development, 1950-1970 by Hollis Chenery and Moises Syrquin with Hazel Elkington, published by Oxford University Press, 1975 A System of International Comparisons of Gross Product and Purchasing Power by Irving B. Kravis, Zoltan Kenessey, Alan Heston, and Robert Summers, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975 Country Economic Reports Chad: Development Potential and Constraints by Richard Westebbe and others, distributed by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1974 Economic Growth of Colombia: Problems and Prospects by Dragoslav Avramovic and others, pi,blised by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1972 Kenya: Into the Second Dscade by John Burrows and others, published by The Johns Hopkins Univers~ty Press, 1975 Korea: Problems and Issues in a Rapidly Growing Economy by Parvez Hasan, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1976 Lesotho: A Development Chalb:rnge by Willem Maane, distributed by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975 Nigeria: Options for Long-Term Development by Wouter Tims and others, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1974 (continued on inside back cover) The Structuralist Approach to Development Policy By HOLLIS B. CHENERY* Several approaches to the analysis of de- importance of structural rigidities has been veloping economies have evolved over the reemphasized by several new phenomena: past twenty-five years. From a method- the limited ability of economies to absorb ological standpoint, they can be grouped the growing labor force, the worsening of under three main headings: neoclassical, the income distribution in several develop- neo-Marxist, and structuralist. The first ing countries, and-most recently-the two attempt to adapt systems of thought disruption to world trade caused by in- that were initially formulated for the study creased oil and food prices, which will re- of industrial societies to the less developed quire a substantial adjustment in produc- countries. The structuralist approach at- tive structures. In short, development tempts to identify specific rigidities, lags, policy again seems to be constrained by a and other characteristics of the structure number of structural factors that require of developing economies that affect eco- a more explicit analysis of the possibilities nomic adjustments and the choice of de- for short-term adjustment and for longer velopment policy. term changes in the economic structure The initial set of structural hypotheses itself. was formulated in the 1950's by writers In this brief survey, I will try to present such as Paul Rosenstein-Rodan, Ragnar an overview of structuralist methodology Nurkse, W. Arthur Lewis, Paul Prebisch, and to compare some of its policy conclu- Hans Singer, and Gunnar Myrdal. They sions to those of the other main ap- explain phenomena such as balance of pay- proaches. Since there is not yet a unified ments disequilibrium, unemployment, and theoretical framework for structural analy- worsening income distribution on the basis sis, I will sele'-,c formulations that seem to of particular properties of demand and provide a promising basis for future production functions and other specifica- research. tions of economic behavior. A common 1. M theme in most of this work is the failure of the equilibrating mechanisms of the price The methodology of structural analysis system to produce steady growth or a de- has evolved over the past twenty-five years sirable distribution of income. from a set of rather intuitive hypotheses to The success of a number of developing models of increasing empirical validity and countries in accelerating their rates of analytical rigor. This evolution can be growth in the 1960's casts some doubt on summarized in three slages: formulationi of the significance of the structural problems hypotheses, empirical testing, and the that had been identified in the previous elaboration of more complete models. This decade. However, in the past few years the sequence can be illustrated for two of the basic elements of structuralist systems: the *Vice President for Development Policy, World concept of a dual economy and the concept Bank. I am indebted to Bela Balassa, Helen Hughes, of complementarity in demand, which Graham Pyatt, and Wouter Tims for helpful comments. urnderlies theories of balanced growth. 310 VOL. 65 NO. 2 DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS 311 The concept of a dual economy stems A. Powell provide some support for the from the observation that developmeint generalized version of Engels' law under- takes place unevenly both within and be- lying the theory of balanced growth, since tween sectors of an economy. Although they show most price elasticities to be less this concept has had many different formu- than unity. Among the basic structuralist lations, the most influential is that of assumptions listed, only the assumed in- Lewis. He makes three basic assumptions elastic demand for exports needs to be as to the structure of a developing econ- seriously qualified. omy: (1) that technology can be divided The third stage of theoretical refinement between capital-using (capitalist) and non- and policy application has proved more capital-using (subsistence); (2) that the difficult. In the first place, it has been labor supply is elastic at a conventional shown that the structural relations posited wage; anc, (3) that saving is done largely are not sufficient to lead to some of the by the recipients of nonwage income policy ccnclusions suggested in the original (capitalists). These assumptions, or vari- formulations. As in the case of the Keynes- ants of them, have been incorporated in ian assumptions, a more complete formu- models that explain the acceleration of lation of models that can be statistically growth, the allocation of the labor force, estimated has proved necessary in order to and changes in the distribution of income. reach useful policy conclusions. Much cur- The early formulations of concepts of rent work consists in developing a second balanced growth by Nurkse and Rosen- generation of models in the structuralist stein-Rodan also relied on a simple set of tradition that are designed for statistical structural hypotheses: (1) a generalized application in individual countries, rather version of Engels' law, specifying that con- than for deriving broad generalizations. sumer demand for food, clothing, shelter, The structuralist approach has had a and other major commodity groups is substantial impact on both internal and mainly a function of income and little af- external development policies. In both in- fected by relative prices; (2) a similar as- stances it focuses on identifying the con- sumption as to the limited price elasticity sequences of various kinds of structural of demand for exports; and (3) in Rosen- disequilibria. In domestic policy, the prin- stein-Rodan's formulation, the impQrtance cipal phenomena examined have been the of economies of scale in overhead facilities effects of surplus labor on resource alloca- and basic industries. The first two assump- tion and more recently the interpretation tions make it necessary to expand output of worsening irncome distribution as result- and allocate investment in close relation to ing from a set of disequilibrium conditions. the pattern of domestic demand. They also In international policy, analysis has fo- provide an explanation for structural dis- cused on the nature of structural disequi- equilibrium and slow growth in countries librium in the balance of payments and its that fail to do so. effect on trade and aid policies. The follow- Both sets of assumptions have in general ing sections examine some of the relation- stood up well to subsequent empirical ships between the methodology employed tests. The acceleration of population and the policy conclusions reached in these growth has probably made the surplus two areas. labor assumption more generally valid to- day than when it was initially formulated I Internal Development Policy for underdeveloped countries. Econometric Unlike the neoclassical assumptions, the tests by R. Weisskoff and '". Lluch and structuralist alternatives do not lead auto- 312 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION MAY 1975 matically to policy conclusions. To pro- to expand agriculture at a rate that is duce such conclusions, they must also be largely determined by the income elasticity embodied in an explicit general equilibrium of domestic demand for foodstuffs because framework. For this purpose, most ana- of the limited possibilities of expanding lysts have used one of two simple models: nonagricultural exports to offset a short- either a neoclassical nod f - ith particulair fall. Failure to meet this condition has re- structural rellatioins added or some A ersion tarded growth in a number of coulntries. of a linear Leontief input-output mo(lel, This conclusion does not apply when in- which e'Kclu(Ids most forms of substitution. dustry is disaggregated to individual sec- The neoclassical framrework minimizes the tors such as steel or fertilizer, however, in effects of the specific rigidities in the eco- which the optimal investment allocation to nomic system, while the input-output sys- sectors having economies of scale is char- tem tends to exaggerate tlhem. acterized by the alternating pattern of ex- Mlost elaborations of the dual economy panision of production and imports de- and surplus labor concepts have been scribed by T. Scitovsky and by Chenery mlade in a two-sector neoclassical system. and L. Westphal. as in the work of J. C. Fei and G. Ranis, The elaboration of structuralist hypoth- L. Lefeber, and A. C. Kellty, J. G. Wil- eses in planning models has also focused liamson and R. J. Chtialian. One policy attention on the value of flexibility in result from this type of model is to deter- adapting resource allocation to changing mine the shad(low% price of labor, which cani circunistances. 'I[lis p)rol)lL'il does not arise theni be used in p)rojectt evaluation and in in the neoclassical systemi, which assunmes estalblisling the need for lal)or subsidies. perfect foresight and a high degree of sub- Empirical applications of these ino(lels stitutability. When these assunmptions are have been liniitcd by the lack: of data on abandonced, flexibility can be prov,ided by different aspects of (uLlism. It will require increased exports or capital inflows and by some expansion of the two-sector frame- planning some excess capacity in p)hysical work before statistical estinlationl of the and human ci)iptal stocks. Although a for- unc:erlv-ing, structural relations he(conmes mal treXatmiient of the benefits of flexibility feasible, and the ways of achiev inlg it has not been The balanced growth hypotheses have develop' d, this is an important problem been widely used in cllpirical analysis aind for developing countries which cannot be are usually incorl)porated in input-outpuit analysed in the neoclassical system. models which incluele f(oligni trade. These The revival of interest in incomiie distri- aire applied to the foirm-lulatitoni and testing bution has added a new dimensioni to of deV(l()npent plhins, as illustrated in sur- structural analN'sis. The traditional ap veys by (helnery (1971) and A. Mannc. proa)ch focuses orn the division betwetni AI)art from its use in coantry planning, wage and nonwage intcomile anid is ill suited this type of mo110del cani aliso be used to de- to dcevclop)ing cOuntrius, in which mo(lerni duce more general propositions through sector wage earncrs are in the nmiddle- systemiatically varying the StruLIctul pa- incoeic groups. Recent studies by M. S. raimetC r s and (dctcr nining a set of IsolutionIs Ahluwalia have brought out the fact that based oni either sinulation or optiinization. the bulk of the poorest groups in dce"elop- This form of sen-sitivity analysis lends ing counitries are self-enmployed and largely considerable sLu)p)orL to sonic of the con- rural. Their incomiies depend more on the clusions of ba: inccd growth theorists. For availability of land and, cal)ital and access cxanp)lc, it is necessary in larger countries to public facilities than on wages. Since VOL. 65 NO. 2 DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS 313 each of the main poverty groups-small limit economic adjustments requires an farmers, landless laborers, urban self- analytical framework in whfTh external employed-has a different set of produc- policy is more closely linked to domestic tive possibilities and constraints, a new resource allocation than does the neo- form of structural analysis based on identi- classical view, which minimizes these re- fication of these groups is necessary for strictions. Attempts to formalize these re- distribution-oriented policies. lationships started from simple two-gap This recognition of the importance of models, which incorporate explicit limits asset distribution does not necessarily lead on the rate of increase of domestic saving, to the Marxist conclusion that the redis- investment, and exports. These models tribution of existing assets is the only alter- were elaborated by including optimizing native. Measures to redistribute incre- procedures and shadow prices, the dis- ments in income and new asset formation aggregation of productive sectors, and are more likely to be acceptable to the more explicit treatment of structural majority of the population and less dis- change over time, as in the work of ruptive of development in most countries. Chenery and A. MacEwan, M. Bruno, and Development strategies based on this S. D. Tendulkar. Experiments with these approach are elaborated by Ahluwalia and types of models in a number of countries Chenery. The neo-AMarxist policy recom- have led to several general conclusions as mendations suffer from the same defects to development analysis and policy, the as the neoclassical in that they are implicit most significant of which are: (1) the en- in the initial assumptions rather than being hanced value of increased exports and derived from an analysis based on em- capital inflows in bottleneck situations, in pirical estimates of the underlying struc- which the trade limitation is more restric- tural relations. tive than supplies of capital and skilled labor; (2) a restatement of the empirical III. ESxternal Policy basis for assessing comparative advantage The conflict among the three analytical over time in relation to the factors limiting approaches is perhaps most acute in the development; and (3) clarification of the area of external policy. The neoclassical relation between internal and external con- approach tends to exaggerate the benefits straints in the evaluation of individual in- of trade in an open economy when it does vestment projects. not explicitly consider the effects of un- During the 1960's a number of countries certain export prices and the difficulties of progressed from an initial strategy of im- shifting resources to meet changing market port substitution to the promotion of man- conditions. Coiriersely, the neo-Marxist ufactured exports after they had developed approach exaggerates the costs of "de- a sufficient industrial base to do so. As pendence" on external trade and invest- countries achieve a more diversified pro- ment and tends to ignore the benefits-of ductive structure and reduce their concen- the technological transfers that accompany tration on a few exports, the (liffTerence be- them. The early structuralist views have tween the neoclassical and structural pre- also proved to be excessively pessimistic as scriptions diminishes because some of the to the possibilities and benefits of non- conistrainits that had previously limited traditional exports of manufactures and growth are no longer significant. An assess- services. ment of the experience of some of the in- The structuralist concept of develop- dustrializing countries that have made this ment as characterized by rigidities that transition-Taiwan, Israel, Korea, Brazil, 314 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATIOAr MA.Y 1975 Mexico-suggests that earlier conclusions and Brazil, which appear to he able to ab- as to the high cost of the initial stage of sorb large increaseis in importcoss tlhrough import substitution need to be reexamined a combination of increased exports and in light of the subsequent ability of the borroN'Iug, while still inaintaining sub- country to shift to manufactured exports stantial rates of growth. Conversely, the and break out of the phase of trade countries most severely affecte(l by the limited development. This evaluation sug- rise in oil and food prices are those which gests that the dichotomy between inward- are dependent on primary exports, whiose oriented and outward-oriented policies has prices kept up with world inflation for only perhaps been overdrawn, and that these a brief period, and which do not have the policies can be more usefully viewed as flexibility to shift readil) to other exports. sequential elements of a strategy designed Unless oil prices are drastically reduiced to bring about changes in the structure of (which seems unlikely), substantial in- both production and trade. creases in capital flows to these couIItries The basic issues of the relations between will be nieeded over the next few years if trade and growth have been reopened in a they are to sustain eveii nmoderate rates of new form by the substantial changes in growth. relative prices that have taken place over the past two or three years. The main IV. Conclusions beneficiaries have been the oil-producing The preceding discussion has illustrated countries, which now have a structural the relations between theoretical premnises problem of unprecedented magnitude in and policy implications in several fields of increasing their capacity to utilize their development. The simnplifying assumptions greatly increased export revenues. Most of of the models currently in use tend to the rest of the world has the opposite prob- exaggerate the diff erences between neo- lem of adjusting its economic structure- classical and structuralist prescriptions. As through import substitution, increased ex- statistically determined relations replace ports, and redirecting trade-so as to ac- a priori hypotheses, it is predictable that commodate a substantial worsening in its these differences will be reduced. A similar terms of trade. Not only has world income process can be hoped for when neo- distribution been made worse by the pres- Marxist theorists turn their attelitioll to ent and prospective reduction in growth of verifying their hypotheses. the poorest countries, but within these Although better knowledge of elasticities countries the policies to improve income of substitution in demand and production distribution are also being weakened. 'or would do quite a bit to reduce the con- most developing countries, increased im- flicts in policy guidance, several real differ- port prices mean a return to a condition of ences in basic concepts remain. Neoclassi- a dominant trade gap and large capital in- cal policy consists essenitially in removing flows for the next few years. They need to impediments to the funictioniing of markets give highest priority to reallocating re- so as to make the real Avorld as much like sources so as to expand exports and gradu- the abstract model as possible. However, ally reduce capital inflows over a reason- it will never be possible to achieve perfect able period. knowledge or instantaneous adjustment This shock to the system of world trade to market signals. It is therefore necessary has emphasized the advantages of the more to incorporate these "imperfections" into flexible economies, such as Taiwan, Korea, the model itself. Once this has been done VOL. 65 NO. 2 DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS 315 it will become possible to take account of - and H. Chenery, "A Model of Dis- the existence of internal or external dis- tribution and Growth," in H. Chenery et equilibria and to devise more realistic poli- al., Redistribution weith Growth, London cies to cope with them. In the theoretical 1974. literature, these policies are misleadingly M Bruno, "Optimal Patterns of Trade and referred to as "second best" in relation to Development," Rev. Econ. Statist., Nov. the neoclassical model. It would be more H. Chenery, ed., accurate to characterize the model itself as PlaHeningr, Cambridge, Mass, 1971. overly simple and "first best" policies - _ and A. MacEwan, "Optimal Patterns as simply unattainable. More attention of Growth and Aid: The Case of Paki- should be given to improving the realism stan," in I. Adelman and E. Thorbecke, of basically neoclassical models instead of eds., The Theory and Practice of Eco- discarding them in favor of equally over- nomic Developmient, Baltimore 1966. simplified structuralist formulations. and L. Westphal, "Economies of In minimizing or ignoring the advan- Scale and Investment Over Time," in J. tages of market adjustments, structuralist Margolis, ed., Public Economics, London (and Marxist) policy prescriptions usually 1969. put too much weight on the limited ad- J. C. Fei and G. Ranis, Developmnent of the mi v a u of d n cLabor Surplus Economy, Homewood 1964. ministrative apparatus of develo,ping coun- A. Wrc n Th taey fEooi tries. As A. Hirschman has stressed, this is DeAzHilopshmen,Tt, New Haven 1958. one of the main limitations to develop- A. C. Kelley, J. G. Williamson and R. J. ment; it should be allowed for by not seek- Cheetham, Dualistic Economic Develop- ing too much fine tuning of development inent, Chicago 1972. policy. Difficulties in implementing a com- L. Lefeber, 'Planning in a Surplus Labor plex set of policies may prove much more Economy," Almer. Econ. Rev., June 1968, costly than the allocative inefficiency of a 58, 343-73. simpler program that can be more readily W. A. Lewis, "Economic Development with carried out. Unlimited Supplies of Labor," Manchester Finally, it must be recognized that the School, May 1954, 22i, 132-91. task of development has been made much C. Lluch and A. Powell, International Com- more difficult for most countries by the re- parisons of Expenditure and Saving Pat- cent changes in the world economy. Vir- terns, Int. Bank for Recon. and Dev., Res. tually every country is currently suffering Cent., dis. pap. no. 2, 1973. tualy vey cunty s crretl suferng A. Manne, "Multi-Sector Models for De- from more or less serious disequilibria velopment Planning: A Survey," J. of De- in its economic structure. Despite our de- 'elopnzeuit Econ., June 1974, 1, 43- 0. sire to give greater weight in development G. Myrdal, Economic Theory an7 d nderde- policy to distributional considerations, this veloped Regions, Londonl 957. cannot be achieved without giving equal R. Nurkse, Problems of Capital Formation in priority to acljustments in external trade Underdeveloped Countitries, Oxford 1953. and capital flows. R. Prebisch, "Commercial Policy in the Un- derdeveloped Countries," Aimer. Econ. REFEREN'CES Rev. Proc., May 1959, 49, 251-73. M. S. Ahluwalia, "Income Inequality: Some P. Rosenstein-Rodan, "Problems of Indus- Dimensions of the Problem," in H. trialization of Eastern and South-Eastern Chenery et al., Redistribution with Growth, Europe," Econ. J., June-Sept. 1943, 53, London 1974. 205-16. 316 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION MAY 1975 T. Scitovsky, "Growth-Balanced or Un- mestic and Foreign Resources in Economic balanced," in M. Abramovitz et al., The Al- Growth: Some Experiments for India," in location of Economic Resources, Stanford H. Chenery, ed., Studies in Development 1959. Planning, Cambridge, Mass. 1971. H. W. Singer, "The Distribution of Gains R. Weisskoff, "Demand Elasticities for a Between Investing and Borrowing CouIi- Developing Economy: An International tries," Amer. Econ. Rev. Proc,, May 1950, Comparison of Consumption Patterns," in 40, 473-85. H. Chenery, ed., Studies in Development S. D. Tendulkar, "Interaction Between Do- Planning, Cambridge, Mass. 1971. Reprinted from THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW © The American ETconoemic Association The Philippires: Priorities and Prospects for Development by Russell Cheetham, Edward Hawkins, and others, distributed by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1976 Senegal; Tradition, Diversification, and Economic Development by Heinz Bachmann and others, distributed by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1974 Turkey: Prospects and Problem;s of an Expanding Economy by Edmond Asfour and others, distributed by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975 Yugoslavia: Development with Decentrailzation by Vinod Dubey and others, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975 World Bank Staff Occasional Papers Coffee, Tea, and Cocoa: Market Prospects and Development Lending by Shamsher Singh and others, published by The Johns Hopkins l!niversity Press, 1977 Malnutrition and Poverty: Magnitude and Policy Options by Shlomo Reutlinger and Marcelo Selowsky, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1976 Economic Evaluation of Vocational Training Programs by Manuel Zymelman, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1976 A Development Model for the Agricultural Sector of Portugal by Alvin C. Egbert and Hyung M. Kim, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975 The Future for Hard Fibers and Competition from Synthetics by Enzo R, Grilli, dis- tributed by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975 Public Expenditures on Education and Income Distribution in Colombia by Jean- Pierre Jallade, distributed by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1974 Tropical Hardwood Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region by Kenji Takeuchi, dis- tributed by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1974 Methods of Project Analysis: A Review by Deepak Lal, distributed by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1974 Other Publications World Tables 1976, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1976 The Tropics and Economic Development: A Provocative Inquiry into the Poverty of Nations by Andrew Kamarck, published by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1976 Size Distribution of Income: A Compilation of Data by Shail Jain, distributed by The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1975 Redistribution with Growth by Hollis Chenery, Montek S. Ahluwalia, C.L.G. Bell, John H. Duloy, and Richard Jolly, published by Oxford University Press, 1974 THE WORLD BANK Headquarters 1818 H Street, N.W. U Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A. European Office 66, avenue d'1ena 75116 F aris, France Tokyo Office Kokusal Building 1-1 Marunouchi 3-chome Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan World Bank reprints No. 28. Norman L. Hicks, "A Model of Trade and Growin for the Developing World," Europear, i-conornic Review No. 29. V. V. Bhatt, "On -technology Policy and its Institutional Frame," World Devel- opment No. 30. Bela Balassa and Ardy Stoutjesdijk, "Economic Integration among Develop- ing Countries," Journal of Common Market Studies (also available in Spanish as published in El Trimestre Econ6mico) No. 31. Constantino Lluch and Ross Williams, "Cross Country Demand and Savings Patterns: An Application of the Extended Linear Expenditure System," The Review of Economics and Statistics No. 32. Marcelo Selowsky, "A Note on Preschool-Age Inivestment in Human Capital in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change No.33. Shankar Acharya, "Fiscal Financial Intervention, Factor Prices and Factor Propositions: A Review of Issues," Bangladesh Development Studies No. 34. Shlomo Reutlinger, "A Simulation Model for Evalutating Worldwide Buffer Stocks of Wheat," American Journal of Agricultural Economics No. 35. John Simmons, "Retention of Cognitive Skills Acquired in Primary School," Comparative Education Review No. 36. Montek S. Ahluwalia, "Inequality, Poverty, and Development," Journal of De- velopment Economics No. 37. P.B.R. Hazell and P. L. Scandizzo, "Farmers' Expectations, Risk Aversion, and Market Eauilibrium under Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics No. 38. Graham Pyatt, "On the Interpretation and Disaggregation of Gini Coeffi- cients," The Economic Journal No.39. ShamsherSingh, "The International Dialogue on Commodities," Resources Policy No. 40. Gary Kutcher and P. L. Scandizzo, "A Partial Analysis of the Sharetenancy Relationships of Northeast Brazil," Journal of Development Economics No.41. Bela Balassa, "The Income Distributional Parameter in Project Appraisal," Economic Progress, Private Vatues and Public Policy (North-Holland) No. 42. Dipak Mazumdar, "The Rural-Urban Wage Gap, Migration, and the Shadow Wage," Oxford Economic Papers No. 43. Dipak Mazumdar, "The Urban Informal Sector," World Development No.44. Carmel Ullman Chiswick, "On Estimating Earnings Functions for LDCs," Journal of Development Economics 3 No.45. Clive Bell and Pinhas Zusman, "A Bargaining Theoretic Approach to Cropsharing Contracts," The American Economic Review