The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Serbia | Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2016 | Seq No: 12 | ARCHIVED on 14-Jun-2021 | ISR47047 | Implementing Agencies: Public Policy Secretariat, Republic of Serbia, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development, Ministry of Labor, Employment, Veteran and Social Affairs Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 16-Sep-2015 Effectiveness Date: 31-Mar-2016 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 11-Dec-2017 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 11-Dec-2017 Original Closing Date: 30-Jun-2019 Revised Closing Date: 30-Jun-2021 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The PDO is to improve the effectiveness and coordination of selected public programs to alleviate constraints to competitivenessand job creation, including investment and export promotion, innovation, active labor market programs, labor intermediation, and activation of social assistance beneficiaries. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? Yes Board Approved Revised Project Development Objective (If project is formally restructured) The PDO is to improve the effectiveness and coordination of selected public programs to alleviate constraints to competitiveness and job creation, including investment and export promotion, innovation, active labor market programs and labor intermediation. Components Table Name Policy planning, monitoring, and coordination:(Cost $3.00 M) Investment and export promotion:(Cost $22.00 M) Innovation:(Cost $39.55 M) Labor:(Cost $30.00 M) Project management and technical assistance:(Cost $5.20 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Moderate Implementation Status and Key Decisions The project is closing on June 30, 2021, with overall implementation progressing well in the final stages of the project. The final disbursement request for the project is planned for the first half of June and will include the DLIs associated with approximately EUR 14.3 million of the loan 6/14/2021 Page 1 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) proceeds. The final disbursement request will also include documentary evidence for the achieved DLIs in the amount of EUR 9.7 million for which an advance was processed in May 2020 (in line with the April 2020 project restructuring, and as part of the COVID-19 crisis response). With this, the overall project disbursement by closure is estimated at approximately 96 percent of the original loan amount. (Two sub-DLIs that will not be achieved by the project closure are associated with the loan amount of EUR 3.3 million and therefore this amount will be canceled.) The overall project rating remains as Moderately Satisfactory, despite the good progress made and the fact that most of the results indicators have been achieved or surpassed. Various delays throughout project implementation contributed to MS being the final rating of the project. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Substantial Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic Substantial Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies Moderate Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Substantial Moderate Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary Substantial Moderate Moderate Environment and Social Moderate Moderate Moderate Stakeholders Substantial Moderate Moderate Other Moderate Moderate Moderate Overall Substantial Moderate Moderate Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Improve the effectiveness of selected public programs on investment and export promotion IN01002501 ►New investor leads generated by the reformed investment promotion agency (annual) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 20.00 31.00 95.00 33.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 IN01002504 ►Participants in export promotion programs that engage in new export activities (annual) (Number, Custom) 6/14/2021 Page 2 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 85.00 95.00 71.00 200.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 NOTE: The value of this indicator for December 2019 was 260, i.e. above the End Target. However, for December 2020 it is below the End Target due to (i) significant overhaul of the export promotion programs Comments: that the Serbia Development Agency initiated; (ii) difficulties related to COVID-19 pandemic. Improve the effectiveness of selected public programs on Innovation IN01002502 ►New collaborations facilitated between research organizations and the private sector (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 3.00 28.00 28.00 25.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 Improve the effectiveness of selected public programs on ALMPs and labor intermediation IN01002503 ►NES registered unemployment cases transitioning into formal job (annual) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 232,280.00 202,559.00 218,854.00 280,000.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 NOTE: The number of registered unemployed transitioning into a formal job in 2019 and 2020 is decreasing, but this reflects positive developments. Namely, there was a decrease in the total number of registered unemployed as a result of the improving labor market conditions. Number of unemployed decreased both in 2018 and 2019, and has remained at this lower level in 2020. Thus, the pool of unemployed is now lower by about 200,000 compared to baseline 2014. As a result, due to this Comments: exogenous factor and smaller pool of unemployed, the absolute number of those transitioning to formal work is lower. However, as a percentage of unemployed, transition to formal employment is consistently increasing - from about 33 percent of unemployed in 2015 to over 50 percent in the more recent data. Further, for 2020 the number of unemployed transitioning into a formal job has been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Policy planning, monitoring, and coordination IN01002506 ►Annual performance reviews of pilot policy planning, monitoring, and coordination system (to support competitveness and jobs reforms) (see DL1) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 6/14/2021 Page 3 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 Investment and export promotion IN01002507 ►MoE investment and export promotion programs restructured [DLI 2] (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value DLI Table partial DLI achieved DLI achieved DLI Table Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 IN01002510 ►Number of documented interests by investors (annual) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 61.00 31.00 95.00 90.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 Note: Value for December 2019 was 103, i.e. higher than in 2020. Values for 2020 have been impacted by Comments: COVID-19 crisis and thus lower than in 2019. IN01002513 ►Number of firms participating in the new Supplier Development Program (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 13.00 32.00 20.00 Date 29-Dec-2017 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 NOTE: Total of 32 firms participated in the program so far. This includes 19 from the first program call in 2019, and an additional 13 from the second call in 2020. Implementation of the Supplier Development Program has been significantly impacted due to COVID-19 pandemic, since decisions on program Comments: participation involve physical visits to facilities of potential participants to perform diagnostics. In 2020, SDA has started implementing tools to conduct remote diagnostics, but this has only partially mitigated the issues caused by the pandemic. As a result, number of firms participating in 2020 is lower than in 2019. Innovation IN01002505 ►Private financing catalyzed through IF support programs (Ammount USD) (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.3m USD 21.97 mn USD 11.57 mn 3.6m Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 Note: The value for the previous reporting period didn't include the amount for MINI & CGS call amount, that was concluded starting inJuly 2020. When these are added previous value would increase to 6.54m, Comments: instead of 3.67m reported in the previous ISR. 6/14/2021 Page 4 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) IN01002509 ►Enterprises and startups financed through Innovation Fund programs (including MMG) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 11.00 126.00 126.00 75.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 IN01002512 Enterprises and startups financed with female owner (Number, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 1.00 26.00 26.00 10.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 IN01002515 ►Innovative products or services developed by MG beneficiary firms (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 16.00 48.00 71.00 25.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 IN01002517 ►Innovative products or services launched by MG beneficiary firms (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 3.00 24.00 42.00 10.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 IN01002519 ►Technology transfer: IF TTF service lines deployed [see DLI 4] (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 11.00 11.00 8.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 IN01002522 ►Technology transfer: transactions initiated [see DLI 4] (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 43.00 43.00 15.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 IN01002523 ►R&I strategy, action plan, RI Roadmap and public research sector reforms including establishment of Science Fund designed and adopted (Text, Custom) 6/14/2021 Page 5 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value See DLI Table achieved achieved achieved Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 IN01002525 ►Science Fund programs initiated (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 4.00 5.00 1.00 Date 29-Dec-2017 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 IN01002526 ►Science Fund programs competitive grants awarded (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 85.00 85.00 20.00 Date 29-Dec-2017 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 NOTE: Actual value of the indicator includes the number of approved projects under three programs where evaluations have been completed and grants awarded (PROMIS: 59 projects, AI program: 12 projects, Covid-19 special program: 14 projects). Evaluation of the project proposals for the fourth Comments: program (IDEAS) is underway, and it is anticipated that a further 80-150 grants will be awarded under this program. Finally, additional 92 grant awards have been approved for the DIASPORA program. IN01002527 ►Citizen Engagement: Innovation matching grant beneficiary annual survey (number of surveys) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 NOTE: Engagement Survey is now mainstreamed in IF activities, and the fourth survey was conducted in January 2021. In addition to the Survey, the IF has been conducting other Citizen Engagement activities, which are now fully integrated in their work program. This includes regular Open Door Days events running for several weeks after the announcement of a call for proposals, where all interested parties can come and get advice and guidance from the IF about the programs. It also includes having email and Comments: phone lines to respond to any queries potential applicants might have. Also, the IF occasionally organizes workshops, both for potential applicants and for awardees. These activities have been impacted by COVID-19 crisis with many of the consultations moving on-line, but once the situation improves it is planned that these activities will return to the more traditional format. Labor IN01002508 ►NES registered female unemployment cases transitioning into formal job (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 122,491.00 109,314.00 118,226.00 145,000.00 6/14/2021 Page 6 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 NOTE: See comment for PDO indicator on the number of unemployed transitioning to formal employment. Comments: IN01002511 ►Number of field visits to employers per year by the NES (Number) (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 15,927 (field visits) 17,657 18,871 18,000 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 IN01002514 ►% of total NES staff that is operating as certified case worker [DLI 6] (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 89.33 89.33 85.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 IN01002516 ►Standard Deviation of mean case load per branch office over all branch offices [DLI 7] (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 381.00 258.00 252.00 260.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 IN01002518 ►Gross placement rate of NES start-up support program for self-employment 6 months from completion (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 95.00 94.19 97.77 98.00 Date 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 Reported rate is for gross placement, while baseline and target values were originally for net placement. Baseline and target values have been updated to also refer to gross placement rate. Comments: IN01002520 ►Gross placement rate of NES hiring subsidy program for new employment 6 months from completion (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 84.00 93.05 93.71 85.00 Date 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 The reported rate is for gross placement, while baseline and target values were originally for net placement. Baseline and target values have been updated to also refer to gross placement rate. Comments: IN01002521 6/14/2021 Page 7 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) ►Number of new or re-designed ALMPs in the NES [DLI 8] (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Date 31-Jan-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 NOTE: New ALMP [DLI 8] was actually launched in May 2021. Comments: IN01002524 ►Citizen engagement: Number of employers reached by client satisfaction and needs survey (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 500.00 500.00 3,000.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2020 31-Dec-2020 31-Dec-2020 NOTE: Surveys of employers, and citizen engagement activities more broadly, have been impacted by the COVID-19 crisis and where thus significantly lower than originally planned. Nevertheless, NES plans to ramp up these activities once epidemic situation stabilizes. In addition, prior to the COVID-19 crisis NES was performing other citizen engagement activities. For example in 2019 about 70 job fairs have been organized across the country, with over 50,000 unemployed and about 1,000 employers attending. Also, Comments: NES is conducting regular field visits to employers (see indicator above). Finally, NES is also partnering up with the Chamber of Commerce for a survey of employers and employees, with original plans to implement it in Q1 2021, though this has been delayed due to unfavorable epidemic situation. Once COVID-19 crisis has subsided, the NES plans to resume with these various citizen engagement services. Performance-Based Conditions Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P152104 IBRD-85280 Effective USD 100.00 100.00 0.00 78.63 21.52 79% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P152104 IBRD-85280 Effective 16-Sep-2015 07-Oct-2015 31-Mar-2016 30-Jun-2019 30-Jun-2021 Cumulative Disbursements 6/14/2021 Page 8 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) PBC Disbursement Achievement Disbursed amount in Disbursement % PBC ID PBC Type Description Coc PBC Amount Status Coc for PBC Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 10-May-2018 ,Level 2 Approved on 14-Apr-2020 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 6/14/2021 Page 9 of 9