1 23950 : 2 1955 . 23950 , , , , . . , , , , , , . , . . . . . , (Copyright Clearance Center, Inc.); -- 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, (978) 750 84 00, (978) 750 44 70. , . , (978) 750 44 70. (202) 522 24 22. 3 23950 : « » 2003 4 33 65.9 23950 74 , , , . : -- , . -- , . -- . : . 74 : . / , , / . . -- : « », 2003. -- 132 . ISBN 5 7777 0157 4 , . , ( , , , ) , . , , , . , , . 2002 . Accounting for Poverty in Infrastructure Reform. Learning from Latin America`s Experience / Antonio Estach, Vivien Foster, Quentin Wodon. The World Bank/ Washington D.C. (ISBN 0 8213 5039 0) -- « » ISBN 5 7777 0157 4 © 2002 / 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C., 20433 U.S.A. 5 6 7 1. 8 9 11 12 2. 15 15 25 , 33 3. 35 35 39 ? 42 , 47 64 3.1. 65 3.2. 68 4. 70 70 73 82 , 83 85 94 5. 96 97 103 109 114 116 120 125 5.1. 126 127 6 , . , , , . , , , . , . , , . , , . ; , , , , , . . , « : » , , , . . , . , , 7 , ( -- Guillermo Perry) . , , , ESMAP . , ( ) (Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad), (Bernadette Ryan), (Corinne Siaens) (Jean Philippe TreŽ); . . (Anna Wellenstein) . , , , , ', , , , , , , , , , , , , . (Phil Gray) (Catherine Waddams) , (Danny Leipziger), (Nora Lustig) (Michael Walton). (Norman Hicks), (Ernesto May), (Michael Kerf), (Luis Serven) (Lourdes Trujillo). , . 8 . ; . , , , . , , , , , , . -- , , , . , . 2 , . , , ( . www.wider.unu.edu). 3 , , , . , , . 4 , , . 5 , , . 9 . , , ? , , ? , , ( . Crampes, Estache 1998 Estache, Quesada 2001). , , , , . , , , , , , , . , . « » («Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers Sourcebook») : www.worldbank.org/poverty/strategies/sourcons.htm. 1980 , , . 1990 , , , . , , . 1990 1999 . 290 ., 10 : 1.1. 1990 -- (1991--2000) (1992--99) (1990) () (1992--98) (1992--98) -- (1997--99) (1999) (1995) (1995--97) (1997--98) (1995--98) (1984--99) (1998) (1998--2000) (1995--98) (1998--99) -- -- (1990--97) (1988--90) (1989--98) (1999) (1995--97) -- (1993--99) (1996--98) (1994) -- -- (1989--96) (1998--99) -- -- (1998) (1998) (1998) -- -- (1998) (1998) (1998) (1996--99) (1997--99) (1995--99) (1989) (1998--99) -- -- (1997 99) (1993) (1994--98) -- (1997--2000) (1995--97) -- (1997) -- -- (1991) : -- ; -- « -- -- »; -- ; -- ; -- . : . 11 ( ). ( , ); . , , , . 1.1 . , , : ; ; (« »); . , , . , , , . . , , , . , , , . , , , . , , , . (Fay 2000), 2000 2005 . 57 ., 2,6 % () . , 35 . . . , 12 : , , . . . , . , . , , , , , . . , , , , . . , , . , ; , . , . , , . , , , , , , . , 13 1990 , , . . -- . , , . , . -- , , , . -- . , , , , . -- . , , . , , , , . , . , . « », , . . , , , 14 : . , . . , ( ) . , . , . , ( ). ; , . -- -- , . , , , . , . , 7,1 11 % ; , 9 % (World Bank 1994). , , : , (. . 2.1). , , , . 2.2 16 : 2.1. , , , , , , . . 1 % , . 0,05 %. , , . , . . (, ) ( , , ). . : . ; , . , , , / , . , , , 17 . , , . . . (Aschauer 1989a, b) , 0,4 0,24 . (Munnell 1990), , (Nadiri, Mamuneas 1994) (Wolff 1996) . , , (Garcia Mila, McGuire 1992), , (Morrison, Schwartz 1996), , , (. Eberts 1990, Hulten, Schwab 1991). , (Munnell 1990b) , 0,15. , (. de la Fuente 2000). , , . (Baffes, Shah 1998) , 0,14--0,16 , , . (Ferreira 1996), 0,34 1,122, . , , . , . . , (Estache, Fay 1995). «», , , , , . , ( , ) 18 2.2. Galal . , (1994) , , , 11 , 12 . . : ; . . ; , -- . , , . Estache, Fay , , (1995) , , , . . Ferreira, Malliagros (1998) 0,55­0,61 . ; 2.2. () . Baffes, Shah , (1998) , , . 0,14 0,16. Chisari, Estache, , 2,25 % Romero (1999) , . , 75 % Navajas (2000) , , 25 % -- . . , -- . . , , . Alexander, , Estache (2000) , , , 19 , . , 20 2.2. () , , . : Benites, Chisari, , , Estache (2000) , , , . , . : . 21 , (Wodon 2001). , 36 %, 0,2 % , , . , , . , . , . , 300 . 1980 50 . 1993 . (Alexander 2000). , , . -- ( ), .. . -- , , . , , , . (, ) , , . , , (Benitez, Chisari, Estache (2000); Chisari, Estache, Romero (1999); Navajas (2000)). , . , , . , , (Benitez, Chisari, Estache 2000) , , : . , 22 : ; . , , . , , , . (Velez 1995) , , , , , , , . , (Wodon, Ajwad, Siaens 2000) , . . , , . , . . (Galal et al. 1994) , , , (. . 2.2). -- , , . « » , . . , . . . , , . 23 , -- . , , . (, ); , , , . , (Chisari, Estache, Romero 1999) ( ), . , . , 0,9 % ( 41 % ). 0,35 % (16 % ). o ( ) , , , , . , . , (Gini), , 0,24 . , -- . , . , . , (Ryan, Wodon 2001) , , . 0,1 % 0,338 %, ( 100 ) -- 0,668 %. , . 24 : 2.3. , , , . . « , » « « » « (« »), ». » (« »). , , . , . . , , , . . . . . 25 2.3. () , , , , , , , . . , , , . , , . . . , . : , -- , . , , : (, ) , , , (. . 2.3). , ; , , , , , . 26 : : -- ; -- ; -- . , , , , . , . ; 1100 1500 . , 24 . , 245 . ; , 20 % . , , . , . . , , . . , . , , . , ; 27 , . , ; . « », .. , , ; . « », , /, , , . , , . -- , , (. . 2.4). , . , . , (Erhardt 2000) , . , . (Kariuki, Acolor 2000, Kariuki, Wandera 2000). , , . , , , , 28 : . , . , , -- , , , . , , , , . , , , . , , 2.4. () -- , , « » ; , , , , , ( , ) , -- : -- . : . 29 . , . , ( ), ( ). , . (Foster, TreŽ, Wodon 2000a, b) , 1998 . 5,87 . 0,08 . . , . : -- , ; -- , ; -- ; -- . , . , . , , . , , , . , , 30 : . : , , , . , , . ( ), . 600 , , ; , , (Guasch 2000). , 1990 , . 2.1, 290 ., 1990 1999 ., 170 . ( 58 %) , (Izaguirre, Rao 2000). 27 %. , (170 . 290 .), (. 134 . 122 .). ; . . , . , , , ( ) . 31 2.1. ( ), 1990 1999 . : Izaguirre, Rao (2000). , . , , , . (, ), ( ) . , . , , , . , , . , , , 32 : . , , , .. . , . , , . , . , -- . (Velez 1995), 1992 . 6 % 24 % . , . 9 % , ( 1992 .). , . , . , . ; . , . , , . , , , . 33 , . . , -- , , , , , . . ( , , ), , , . , , , , ; , , . , , , . , , , , . , . , , , , . , . , , , , . . , , . 34 : , (Walker . 2000). , , . , . . , , ( ) . , , . , . , , . , . 3.1 22 1986--1996 . . , . , , . , , . : . . , 100 , , , . , , . -- . , , ( ) , ( , ). , 36 3.1. 22 1986--1996 . 1986 75,99 66,99 5,46 82,19 68,34 73,63 4,58 72,16 : 1989 80,85 79,85 6,13 85,37 69,88 77,21 5,23 76,25 1992 81,33 79,84 7,44 87,72 70,16 77,50 6,54 80,19 1995 -- 79,65 9,41 89,37 73,19 79,67 8,54 81,76 1996 -- -- 10,30 90,10 -- -- 9,42 80,91 : -- ; 1995 . , . : . 37 200 . , , . , , 20 . , «» . -- . , , , . , . , . -- . 100 . , . 3.1 12 ; 3.2. ( ), -- . . ; . , ; . , , . , , . , . , , , , . 1986 1996 . 60 70 %, . (486 1996 .), (90,1 %) (5 ), , 10 , . 38 3.2. 12 , , 1986--1996 . : 1986 82,19 72,16 95,51 92,43 59,26 54,21 72,05 66,24 86,87 84,57 46,76 51,72 1989 85,37 76,25 96,77 94,68 65,20 58,39 74,54 71,01 87,82 85,42 49,82 52,11 1992 87,72 80,19 97,23 95,45 66,13 61,53 76,74 75,02 88,58 87,03 48,58 50,81 1995 89,37 81,76 97,96 95,66 68,24 63,75 78,81 75,41 90,76 88,17 49,08 50,92 1996 90,10 80,91 98,21 96,81 69,89 60,77 81,14 75,74 92,36 88,85 51,80 48,95 : ; Wodon, Ajwad (2000). 39 , , -- . , 1986 1996 . 0,5 %. 81,1 % , , 18 . , , . 3.1 , . , 15,8 26,5 % ( 1996 .). , . , (. 3.2). ( ) -- ; . . . (, , ) , ( , , , ). , , , . , , 20 . , . 3.1 . , 2 % , ( ), , 2020 . . 40 : 3.1. ,1995--2019 . : Ryan, Wodon (2001). ( ). 75 % 90 % 20 . 40 100 , . 20 . ; , . , , , , . . , , ; , . , ( ), , . 41 . (.. ) , ( ), , , . . , , . , . , , . , . (. 3.2). , . . , . 1986-- 1996 ., (Wodon, Ajwad, Siaens 2000), . , ; , , , . , (. 3.1). 3.3 . , 42 : . ( ). , ; , . ? , . . , , . , , , , , (, , ). , , . , , , , . , , . ( ) , , . , . , , . 43 3.1. i = 1,... N. . q = 1,..., Q ; Q. Xqij x j, q i. q i Xqi, Jqi -- q i. , (.. ) , Q: q = 1,..., Q. (q = 1) X1i . : ( , ), q. q Qq/(Q­1 + q), Q -- . Q. q , : . ; , Q. q . . : Ajwad, Wodon (2000); Wodon, Ajwad (2000a). . Lanjouw, Ravallion (1999). 44 3.3. : (p 5 % ) 0,937 1,124 0,940 0,219 0,881 1,900 0,504 1,355 1,141 0,534 0,687 1,779 0,305 0,654 2,041 : Ajwad, Wodon (2000). 45 . , , . , , , , . , , , , , , . . . , 3.2, , 1995 . , . , , , , (, ). , , , . 3.4. (.. ) . 1995 . ; . , ; . , . , , . , 46 : 3.2. , , (Ajwad, Anguizola, Wodon 2000) 1992--1998 . (1992--1995 .) (1995--1998 .). . CS; -- ; -- S1; ( ) 1 2 -- 1 2; -- . . , , . 1992--1998 ., Y . . , , 0 1. , , , , 25% (Foster, TreŽ, Wodon 2000a; Wodon, Ajwad, Siaens 2000). : . i, i. , . , , ; , . , T , , , : . , , , , . . 47 3.2. () . . , , , , . : Ajwad, Anguizola, Wodon (2000). , (, , , Benitez, Chisari, Estache 2000; Chisari, Estache, Romero 1999; Navajas 2000), , . , , . , , , , . 3.5 . ; , . : ) , ) , ) . 48 3.4. ( %) , , 1992--1998 . (%) (%) =0 = ­ 1 =0 = ­ 1 : 1992--93 0,452 1,693 0,480 1,917 NS 1,452 NS 1,632 1993--94 0,413 1,626 0,452 1,846 NS 1,297 NS 1,475 1994--95 NS 1,399 NS 1,565 NS 1,585 0,521a 1,874 1995--96 0,326 1,556 0,341 1,748 0,511 1,704 0,563a 1,949 1996--97 NS 1,281 NS 1,415 NS 1,334 NS 1,488 1997--98 NS 1,386 NS 1,543 NS 1,496 NS 1,680 0,06 0,10 0,07 0,06 NS NS NS NS 0,02 0,01 NS NS (p ) : 5 %. , , . -- 10 %; NS -- 10 %. : Ajwad, Anguizola, Wodon (2000). 49 , , . . (). . , , , . , . , , , , , , . , , . , .. , , . , (Chisari, Estache, Romero 1999). , , , (Chisari, Estache 1999). . , . , , , . , , . . -- , . , , . , . , . , 50 3.5. , , . , . , : . . , . , . . . . . , . , . ( . , , ). . ; . 3.5. , () . , . , , , , . . , , ( . ). , , , . . , . . . , , , . . . . : . 51 52 : , . , , . , , . , , , . , , . , : -- , ; -- ; -- ; -- . . , , . , , , , , . , . -- , . , , , , ; 53 . 40 %. 80 % , 122 . 20 . 100% 2001 . (. 3.3). (. 3.4). . 3.6, , . 9 . , 2--7 . . , , , . , . . 1990 , . , , , . . , ; . , . -- . : , . . , , . 54 : 3.3. , 1997 . 30 Suez Lyonnaise des Eaux (Aguas del Illimani) . , , , . 87 % , -- 48 %. . , 0,22 . , 35 % . , ( ) . , 0,66 1,18 . . 2001 . 100% 90% -- . 155 ., -- 188 .; , 300 400 . , . , , ( , ) . 40 % , 100 . , 70 % ; . , , 500 . 14 % . -- 98 % -- , , . , , , . : , , , 10 , , . : Carbonel (2000); Foster (2001); Foster, Irusta (2001); Komives, Brook Cowen (1999). 55 . , , , . , , , 3.4. 1994 . . , . . , , , -- , -- . , , . , . , , . , . ; 72 % 1995--1997 . , ; . , . . , . , , . . 1992--97 . 53 76 %, , , 15 % (1994 .) 1 % (1999 .). 1100 . 2300 . . , , , , . : Jadresic (2000); Serra (2000). 56 : . () (. 3.5). , -- , , .. 3.6. , , ( .) 2,2 3,7 1,6 1,3 . (.) 6059 7415 4420 1598 (./. ) 3600 4600 9500 4400 (%) 60 45 37 78 1:7 -- 1:2 3 1:2 4 -- . : Izaguirre (2001). , . , . ; , . , . . , , . , 57 , . . . , . . , . . 3.5. , 1992 . Suez Lyonnaise des Eaux 30 . (). 27 %, 13,5 % 1994 . 70 % , -- 58 %. , ; 55 % 36 % -- . 30 100% 90% -- . 200 245 . . 251 637 ., -- 856 891 . ( 1995 .). . ; 44 . , . . , , , , , , . 1997 ., 1995 ., . , 58 : 3.5. , () 3 . . , 120 . 4 . (. . ). , ( ). , . ( .) 30,80 30,80 USEI -- 6,00 ( ) 37,26 44,52 ( ) 6,16 6,16 44,00 -- USEI -- 3,00 -- 4,00 ( ) 60,69 15,92 : -- ; USEI -- . : Alcazar, Abdala, Shirley (1999); Ferro (1999). , . , , , . . -- , , , , . , 59 , , . -- , , , . -- ( ) . -- , . -- ; ( ), , , . , , . , , . : , , ? , , , , , (. 3.5). , , , , . « » , , . , , 60 : . . . () . . , . , . , (Foster, Gomez Lobo, Halpern 2000). , -- ; ( ) . , , . 1994 . , ( ) (. 3.4). , ; . , , (. Solo 1999a, b; Paniagua 1999). ( , ), , . 15 50 % (. . 3.7). , , , 61 3.7. , , (%) (./3) , , 70 30 0,40 0,30--0,40 , 75 20 0,55 0,54--6,40 , 75 15 0,54 0,27--2,00 , 50 50 0,09--0,42 0,25--2,70 , 74 26 0,29 0,29--2,43 : Solo (1999b). , ( , , ). , , . . , . , , , . , , ( ) . -- , , , . 62 : , . , , (, , ) , . , . , . , . , . , -- , . ( , , , ), , . , (Melo 2000). . , ( ) . , cho los celulares (« ») (Melo 2000). . , , , . , , , , , . 63 , , , . , . , . , , , . ( ). . . , (, ), , , . , , , , , , . , , . , , , . : ? 64 : , , . , , 90 % , 20 . . , ; . , , , . , . 3.1. , 1986--1996 . ( ) , ( .1995 .) ( .) (%) 1986 -- -- -- 99,70 97,05 -- -- -- -- 7473,25 10,40 33,81 1989 -- -- -- 99,54 95,79 -- -- -- -- 6707,39 11,09 34,55 1992 -- -- -- 99,96 97,16 -- -- -- -- 7670,21 11,66 34,91 1995 -- -- -- 99,78 96,94 -- -- -- -- 8075,78 11,44 32,89 1996 -- -- -- 99,86 98,17 -- -- -- -- 8353,19 11,56 32,83 1986 -- -- -- 97,27 76,08 -- -- -- -- 797,37 2,07 34,39 1989 -- -- -- 90,30 70,92 -- -- -- -- 817,41 2,44 37,97 1992 -- -- -- 90,60 75,79 -- -- -- -- 852,27 2,45 35,55 1996 66,54 60,47 -- 93,92 83,39 -- 25,00 25,69 -- 921,25 4,57 60,28 1986 81,13 67,74 -- 95,84 82,81 -- 41,71 27,34 -- 4278,45 135,61 98,31 1989 85,10 70,77 -- 96,85 83,62 -- 51,17 33,67 -- 4333,06 144,06 98,95 1995 90,65 78,28 20,51 98,38 88,60 25,09 61,60 39,50 3,30 4417,51 152,37 95,70 1996 91,93 81,59 23,58 98,72 91,26 28,64 67,24 46,45 5,17 4480,27 154,36 95,66 1992 87,69 86,10 -- 94,28 97,53 -- 59,09 36,47 -- 3502,12 13,45 97,96 1998 96,82 90,19 14,27 99,58 99,25 16,37 80,65 37,09 1,97 4419,24 14,49 100,52 1989 -- -- -- 99,32 97,29 62,38 -- -- -- 2071,61 10,92 33,05 1992 -- -- -- 99,48 97,51 64,04 -- -- -- 2161,87 12,46 35,74 1995 94,56 84,23 39,46 99,74 97,77 62,32 87,20 64,96 6,93 2407,19 20,22 54,92 65 1996 91,70 81,68 39,86 98,92 97,90 60,42 80,61 56,76 8,30 2410,15 23,38 62,44 66 3.1. , 1986--1996 . ( ) () , ( .1995 .) ( .) (%) : 1989 -- -- -- 89,71 58,76 12,22 -- -- -- -- 2,26 43,46 1992 -- -- -- 92,75 60,73 12,61 -- -- -- -- 2,37 43,94 1995 74,34 44,46 14,08 94,69 66,92 25,41 49,78 17,36 0,41 -- 3,17 54,89 1996 75,65 47,80 16,66 94,89 69,21 30,11 52,40 21,91 0,40 -- 3,17 54,63 1987 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 8,04 98,04 1989 50,09 53,08 -- 88,03 80,01 -- 27,69 37,18 -- -- 5,83 65,21 1999 61,21 61,17 -- 90,27 88,83 -- 42,29 43,17 -- -- 10,50 94,78 1986 50,73 75,81 -- 82,06 88,52 -- -- -- -- 663,26 1,35 29,70 1989 41,57 66,55 -- 89,64 88,57 -- 18,34 55,91 -- 700,11 4,47 90,20 1992 55,47 87,04 -- 88,42 92,52 -- 31,58 83,07 -- 699,08 4,97 91,70 1995 53,31 -- -- 86,22 -- -- 28,10 -- -- 698,29 5,33 91,80 1996 59,31 87,34 -- 94,84 96,74 -- 31,66 80,03 -- 703,56 5,55 91,00 1984 87,27 79,33 15,82 95,17 89,05 23,41 73,67 62,59 2,75 3758,39 75,97 104,00 1989 89,15 78,10 18,22 97,23 90,92 27,90 76,14 57,46 2,63 3924,34 78,74 96,30 1992 91,28 77,51 21,50 97,24 88,03 29,45 75,45 49,57 0,38 4212,81 84,05 96,90 1994 93,49 79,57 25,80 97,59 89,57 35,16 82,43 52,63 0,60 4323,41 89,37 99,30 1996 93,11 83,09 26,51 97,50 92,11 35,72 81,45 59,10 2,02 4117,98 92,59 99,40 3.1. , 1986--1996 . ( ) () , ( .1995 .) ( .) (%) 1986 -- -- -- 94,70 70,41 -- -- -- -- 1700,09 0,98 25,90 1989 -- -- -- 97,79 74,33 -- -- -- -- 1816,38 1,12 27,10 1992 -- -- -- 97,86 68,31 -- -- -- -- 1787,37 1,23 27,70 1995 -- -- -- 96,35 67,63 20,64 -- -- -- 1860,45 1,41 29,20 1996 -- -- -- 96,94 67,14 -- -- -- -- 1835,77 1,49 30,20 1981 -- -- -- 93,22 87,81 -- -- -- -- 5266,75 2,66 88,00 1989 -- -- -- 96,66 91,56 -- -- -- -- 4851,37 2,75 89,30 1992 -- -- -- 98,28 97,95 -- -- -- -- 5326,34 2,80 89,50 1995 -- -- -- 98,78 97,91 -- -- -- -- 5606,86 2,87 90,20 1996 -- -- -- 99,22 98,32 -- -- -- -- 5859,80 2,89 90,30 1986 95,18 90,62 -- 99,35 96,96 -- 78,65 65,54 -- 3496,11 17,90 101,70 1989 97,08 91,54 -- 99,50 96,61 -- 84,65 65,55 -- 3245,65 19,38 101,80 1992 97,89 93,09 -- 99,58 97,64 -- 88,73 68,54 -- 3725,42 20,35 99,60 1995 99,47 92,99 -- 99,57 97,69 -- 95,06 71,33 -- 3537,19 21,85 100,00 1996 98,47 92,14 -- 99,53 97,00 -- 94,12 72,33 -- 3449,36 22,32 100,00 -- . : ; . . Wodon, Ajwad (2000a). 67 68 : 3.2. 1986--1996 . 69 : ; . Wodon, Ajwad (2000a). , , . , , . , , . . 1980 , . , . , -- , . , . , , . , , . , , . , , . , , ; . 71 ( , , , ), . , , ( , , ), , . -- . 1992 . . . 4 .; , . 27 %. 13,5 % . , , . , ; , . -- . 1992 1997 . ( , ) 48,76 25,67 . , 50 %. , ; 13 1992 . 44 1997 . ( ) 40 % -- 0,191 . , 1991 . ( 1997 .), 0,115 . . , , (Estache, Rodriguez Pardina 2000; FIEL 2000). , , . -- . , , 72 : / . 1990 . ( ) 0,47 3,81 . (Abeles 2000). -- . 1994 . , 50 %, -- 80 %. 1998 . , PCS . 1988 1998 . 50 %, , . , , . , , 1988 1998 . 25 %, , , (Serra 2000). -- . , , , (Ajwad, Anguizola, Wodon 2000). -- . , , . (Maddock, Castano 1991). , , , ; , . , , , , . 73 . 4.1 , , . , , : -- , ; -- ; -- , . 4.1 , . : . , , . , : , . ; , . , . . , ; «» . , ; . , . : 74 : 4.1. , , . , «» . . , ( ). . , . . . , , , ; , , . . . . ( , , ..) . . . . , . . « ». . . « ». : . 75 . ; , , , . . : . , «», . , ; , , , , . , , 300 . , . , () 30 , 23 -- . -- . , . , 6,40 . , 8000 ; 20 . , . , (Boland, Whittington 2000). 4.1 . 4.2, , . (. 4.1) ( ) , , , 76 : , . , , . , , ( ), ; . , . 4.1. : Walker . (2000). , , . , , , . , , . 77 4.2. : , . . 4.2 . . , , . . . , . (, ) , , . 78 : , ( . 4.3). , . , ; . . : , , . ; , . , 1980 . Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (« »), . : ) ; ) ; ) . , 50 , , . , (Wodon 2000c). , , , . 79 4.1. ( ) , , 300 . 2000 . 17 . , (Wodon, Ajwad, Siaens 2000) , , , 100 300 , , , . , . , , 20 , 20,31 % (115 723 ), 44,93 % . 3,36 , 388 626 . 929 256 , (595 973 ) 303 282 (1 . 17 ). , ( ) (%) (1) (1) (%) (2) (%) ( ) (L) (L) (%) (2) (1)*[(1)­(2)] (1)*(2) (%) 0--20 20,31 44,93 11,18 -- 3,36 0 929 256 595 973 1,38 20--100 22,69 35,66 14,60 -- 58,67 5 095 693 2 716 580 7,30 100--150 12,63 16,82 10,50 -- 125,09 7 387 370 3 761 883 13,14 150--200 11,16 10,98 9,94 -- 175,35 10 314 338 5 148 710 19,24 200--250 9,25 15,64 7,81 -- 224,54 11 618 468 5 746 445 20,35 250--300 7,43 17,09 6,16 -- 275,77 11 895 559 5 850 730 20,36 300 16,53 10,15 -- 9,22 -- -- -- -- 100,00 24,96 60,19 9,22 108,58 47 240 684 23 820 321 81,81 -- . : Wodon, Ajwad, Siaens (2000). , , , , , . k SP SPk , k Sk, . -- (1) (2). 1 -- , : 1 = k Sk(1­SPk)/(1­SP). 2 -- , : 2 = k >Sk SPk/SP. 1, 2 . 1 60,19 %, 2 9,22 %. -- . (1­2)*SP/[E1*(1­SP)]. SP = 0,2496 0,5072 %, , , . 80 : 4.1. ( ) () -- , . . 80 %, , , , . : Wodon, Ajwad, Siaens (2000). 4.3. : . , , . , . . , . 81 4.2. ( ) 1990 ., , 5 % . , 5 % , , , . ( , ) 42 % 1991 ., 85 % 1994 . 95 % 1997 . , 20 85 % 15 . , , . , CAS ( ). . , , . 1960 . , , . , , . , . , . , , . , , ( ). Gomez Lobo, Contreras (2000) , ( ) , 5 % . , 80 % -- , . , (30 %), 80 %. : Gomez Lobo, Contreras (2000). 82 : . (, «1 800»). (. . 3) ; , . , , , . , . , . , . , . , , . , . , lineas populares (« »), (Melo 2000). . EDF 1990 (Wodon 2000). , , ( ); , , . 1 , 3 . , . -- 600 000 400 000 1994--1995 ., 83 . , , . . , , . , . : , , . . , : . . , . , , . , . , . , : ? , , , «» ( ). -- 84 : , , . , . , « » , . (Melo 2000). . , , , . 1996 1999 . 10 66 000 . , 1998 . ; 1998 -- 1999 . 86 % . , , . , . . 4.3 , EDF. , , EDF , , . . , . 85 , , , . , , . 4.1 4.2, , . ( ) , ( , ) . , , , , . , ( ) , . 4.4. , , , , ; , . , ; , . , 45°, , , . , , . . 50 %, ; 100 % , , 86 : 4.3. Electricite de France (EDF) Gaz de France (GDF) . , EDF , . -- . . -- . -- . , . , . , ( ). -- , . EDF , , . -- . EDF , . EDF , , , . -- . EDF , . -- . . -- . EDF «1 800». -- . , EDF : . -- . EDF , , . -- . EDF-- GDF, . -- . EDF () , . 87 4.3. () -- . EDF , . -- . . -- . EDF , , , . -- . EDF, , , . : Wodon (2000b). . , , (. 4.2) (Wodon, Ajwad, Siaens 2000). ( ) . , , , , . , , . , . (. Wodon 1997; Wodon, Ajwad, Siaens 2000). , , , , . 88 : 4.4. P, P­ P+ , , , , . NP, NP­ NP+ ; , ; , . SE = P+/(P­+P+) = P+/P , . SP = NP­ /(NP­+NP+) = NP­ /NP , . , 1 ­ SP 1 ­ SE . -- SP = NP­ /(NP­+NP+) 1­SE = P­ /(P­+P+) 1­SP = NP+ /(NP­+NP+) SE = P+ /(P­+P+) , . ; ( ). . , SE 1--SP . . = 1, SE = 0 SP = 1. = 0, SE = 1 SP = 0. , (, 45°, , , , ). . , 0,5, , 45°; . , 1,0, . ( ) , , , , , . , , . : Wodon (1997). 89 . CAS ( , ). 8,65 . . 30 % . , 20 % . CAS , , , 4.2. , (%) ( ) 87 83 72 71 71 72 69 66 () 66 63 ( ) 82 81 77 77 72 72 68 69 61 58 70 73 : . : Wodon, Ajwad, Siaens (2000). 90 : . , CAS . 1996 . 1,2 % , CAS. CAS , 17,8 % (Gomez Lobo, Contreras 2000). . Gomez Lobo, Contreras (2000) (. 4.5). , .. . , , . , , , , . , , . 4.5. , i, s. I -- , , ; . -- , . , , , . . , . , , , , , , ( ). . : Gomez Lobo, Contreras (2000). 91 , , 53 %. , . . , , , , . -- . , , . , , , , . , , , , , , . , (, ). 92 : , , . 1991 . , . 1994 ., , . , , , . ; . , , , . , . , , . , (. 4.6). , , . , (Cobb Douglas), 80 % , 10 % , 44 % , . , . , , . 93 4.6. , . 1- U = Q1 Q2 , P1Q1+P2Q2 = B. -- , . , Q1 = B /P1, Q2 = (1 )B/P2. : 1­. , aP1Q1+P2Q2 = B < 1. Q1 = B /(aP1), Q2 = (1 )B /P2. , , , : . , = /a . = 1, = . -- = (1 a )/a . , , = . B(1--)/a . /C = (1--a )a 1-/[(1--a)]. , ( ) ( ). , , , . : Wodon (2000a). , , . Illinois Residential Affordable Payment Program (« »), 1985 . : 8 % , -- 4 % . 125 % . , , 94 : . , E = bY + PsQe, E -- , b -- , , Y -- , Ps -- , Qe -- ( , ; ). (Costello 1988) , , . , , . , . , . , «» . . , . , . , ( ) . , . , , , , . 95 , . , , . . , , . , . , . , , , , , . , . , . , . , . , , , , . , . , , . , , . , . -- . . , . , , : -- ; -- ; -- , . , , , . , 97 . . , : -- ? -- : ? -- ? ? , , , . , , , , , , , . , , ( ). 3, ; . 5.1 5.2 . , ( , ) , . , , , , ; , 98 : . , , , , . . 5.1. : ? , , . , , -- . 5.1, 60 % , 30 % . , , , 50 %; : . , , . , , . ( ). , , , . ? , , , . ; , 99 5.1. 1998 . : . 100 : 5.2. 1998 . () : . 5.1. , 1999 . ( ) ( ) (1) (2) (1) (2) (3) = (2)/(1) (3) = (2)/(1) 1 0,60 0,30 0,50 0,07 0,07 0,97 0,68 2 0,72 0,29 0,41 0,11 0,10 0,89 0,62 3 0,77 0,43 0,56 0,14 0,13 0,95 0,66 4 0,78 0,44 0,56 0,15 0,21 1,41 0,99 5 0,86 0,53 0,62 0,20 0,25 1,25 0,87 6 0,86 0,62 0,72 0,23 0,32 1,43 1,00 7 0,89 0,67 0,75 0,31 0,41 1,31 0,92 8 0,93 0,76 0,82 0,42 0,56 1,36 0,95 9 0,95 0,86 0,90 0,47 0,62 1,31 0,92 10 0,98 0,95 0,97 0,54 0,69 1,29 0,90 0,86 0,64 0,74 0,26 0,34 1,28 0,90 : . 101 : . 102 : . , ( , ) . , , , , , , . , , , , . , , . , . , , . (, ) , 146 ., , . , . , . . «Telephonica» 1993 . 493 . (1994 .) 251 . (1998 .). , 5,86 . 14,90 . , / (Melo 2000). , , 1 21 %. , , , , , . , . , , 103 . , , , . , . . -- ? -- ? -- ? ? , . , , , , . , , , . , , , ( ). , , , . , , . ? 104 : , . , ; , , , . , , . , , . , , . , , : -- ; -- ; -- , . . . . , (.. ), . 5.3; , 0,46 . -- 0,21 . (Foster, Gomez Lobo, Halpern 2000); , . , , . , , . 1980 , . , . 105 . 5.3. : Foster, Gomez Lobo, Halpern (2000). . , , . , , . , . , 60 16 4 . , , . , 106 : 5.2. (.) (% (.) (% ) ) 0,73 0,40 2,64 2,00 93,60 62,40 -- -- 0,95 0,60 -- -- 94,55 63,00 -- -- -- . : Foster, Tre (2000); Foster, Tre, Wodon (2000). 1 . ( 1 % ) (. . 5.2). , , , . , , , . , . 5.1; 5.3. , 19 %, 25--31 %, , . . , . , , 107 5.1. , . (Wodon, Ajwad 2000b) , . , , . , L -- ; -- ; R -- , ; -- ; -- . log : log (Ti) = 0 + 1 Li + 2 Hi + 3 Ri + 4 Ei + 5 Oi + i . 4 , . 4 ­0,46, 46 %. , , , , , . , , , , . , , ( ) . , , . Ei Pi -- , : log (Ti) = 0 + 1 Li + 2 Hi + 3 Ri + 4 Ei + 5 Oi + i ; log (Ei) = 0 + 1 Li + 2 Hi + 3 Ri + 4 Ei + 5 Oi + i ; log (Pi) = 0 + 1 Li + 2 Hi + 3 Ri + 4 Ei + 5 Oi + i . , Ti = Ei Pi , j = j + j. , 4 , . 5.3, 19 %. ( ), 25--31 %. : Wodon, Ajwad (2000b). 108 : , ( ). 5.2 , 5.4 , . 15 60 % , , . , . , (, ) 10--20 %. , 3--5 %. ? , , , . 4, , ; . , 5.3. , 1999 . , , , : (1) ­0,19 +32,8 +61,4 «» (2) -- +56,3 +95,3 (1)--(2) -- ­24,9 ­31,1 -- . : Foster, TreŽ, Wodon (2000); Wodon, Ajwad, Siaens (2000). 109 , . . , , : ; , , . . (. 5.3). , : -- ; -- ; -- . 4, . «» , : . , «» , . , , . , . , . , , 110 : 5.2. , , , : log (Ri) = 0 + 1Li + 2 Ui + 3 Hi + 4 Ei + i . Ri ; Li -- ( ); Ui -- , ; Hi -- Ei -- . (, , , ..); (, , , ..); ( , , ..); ( , ..) . , , . , , , , , , , . , , , . , , , . , , , . , , . , , . . , , . : Siaens, Wodon (2000). , .. . , . , , . , . , (Foster, Gomez Lobo, Halpern 2000), 7 % , -- 25 %. 5.4. , , % 28,43 37,62 32,17 30,66 14,71 42,32 45,46 60,11 35,96 , % 1 2,47 2,62 7,22 3,44 1,00 7,32 11,07 3,86 11,01 2 1,52 1,78 1,98 2,21 0,79 2,55 4,49 2,99 3,64 3 1,50 1,47 1,33 1,89 0,66 1,67 3,94 2,59 2,56 4 1,24 1,42 1,05 2,20 0,67 1,68 3,90 2,19 2,20 5 1,23 1,19 0,64 1,87 0,63 1,27 4,63 2,21 1,57 , % ­0,53 ­4,91 ­0,86 ­1,18 ­1,69 ­0,32 ­2,80 ­8,86 ­2,20 , ­1,02 ­0,58 ­1,31 ­2,19 ­0,17 ­1,51 ­3,54 ­2,17 ­3,09 , % ­0,21 ­7,31 ­0,10 ­0,42 ­2,70 ­0,17 ­1,38 ­8,98 ­0,62 , ­0,53 ­0,98 ­0,18 ­0,98 ­0,29 ­0,92 ­1,90 ­2,27 ­0,93 111 : Siaens, Wodon (2000) 112 : 5.3. , , . . , ( ) , , , , -- . s c -- , ; s c -- , V -- -- ( ); , : , . , . s = c s = c (V) (), . /(1 ­ s) , , , , . , , . : Wodon (2001). 18 % (Gomez Lobo, Contreras 2000). , , , 1 %. , -- . 113 , , , , , . . , . , , . , . , , , . , : , . , (Chong, Hentschel 1999) , 1994--1997 . . , , , . , . , , , 10 % , , . , ( , ) 37 %. , -- . 114 : , , . , , (.. « »). , (. 5.4). , (, ) . , : , . , , , . 5.5 , . , , , , 5.5. () () . , , , . , , . (. . 5.6 -- ). 5.6 , , . , . 115 5.4. , . (Makdissi, Wodon 2000), , . , , . , ( ) . , , . , , , . . , , , . , . , , . : , 1999 . : Makdissi, Wodon ( ). 116 : 5.5. ( ) 1 2 3 4 ( ( ) ) ( ) : Makdissi, Wodon ( ); Wodon (2000a). , (. . 5.4). -- . , ; , , , , . , . , , 3. , , 4. , . , , . -- , . , . 117 5.5. , , (Lerman, Yitzhaki 1985) (. Garner 1993). y, F(y) ”y. : Gy = 2 cov [y, F(y)] /”y = i Si Ri Gi, Gy -- , Gi -- y i, S = ”i / ”y , i, Ri -- i . Ri = cov [yi, F(y)] /cov [(yi, F(yi ))], F(yi ) -- i. Ri ­1 +1. , , . , , , , . , () i, , Si Ri Gi. ( ) . , (Stark, Taylor, Yitzhaki 1986) , ( ) i , yi (1 + ei) , ei , . , , , i ( ), . , ( ) , Ri Gi, « ». , i = Ri Gi / Gy . . i, ( ) i, , : . , , i () , () . , . : Wodon, Yitzhaki ( ). 118 : , . ; . 5.4. 5.6. : , 1996 . , 1,578 1,558 1,766 1,549 1,456 1,699 1,526 1,474 1,806 , , 1,384 1,246 1,605 , 1,357 1,306 1,738 1,125 0,998 1,019 1,181 1,082 0,868 , 1,072 1,004 1,090 1,053 1,090 1,003 1,044 0,851 1,293 1,039 1,005 0,934 1,008 0,986 1,006 0,991 1,029 1,175 0,952 0,842 1,043 , 0,918 0,791 0,987 0,913 0,867 0,854 0,750 0,605 0,977 0,650 1,144 1,324 0,612 0,432 0,983 , .. 0,488 0,419 0,604 0,478 0,431 0,545 0,463 0,435 0,580 0,398 0,252 0,944 , .. 0,340 0,383 0,459 0,120 ­0,126 0,732 ­0,343 ­0,783 0,417 ­0,666 ­1,042 0,341 ­0,841 ­0,262 ­0,154 : Wodon . (2000). 119 : . 120 : , , ? Estache, Gomez Lobo, Leipziger 2000 , . , , : -- ; -- ; -- . , . , . . , , , , , , . . , , . , , , , , . , , . , 121 . , , , , . , , , . , , , . , . , . , . , . . , . , , . . , , ; , . ( ) , . , , . ( ), ( ) ( « »). , , 122 : , . , , , -- , . , . , , . , , , . , . , , , . , . . . , , , , -- -- . , , . , , . ; 123 , . , , . . , . , . () () , . , ( ). , « ». , , -- , -- . , . , , , , . , , . , , , . 124 : , , . . , . , , « » . , , . , , , , . , , , . ( ), -- -- , . . (, , ). , , , , ( ). , , , . . , , , , . « », ( ). 125 . ; . , , , , . . , , , . , , , . . , . . , , , , . , . , , . , , , . 126 5.1. (% , ) 1 3 5 7 1 3 5 7 1989 85,08 93,14 97,68 98,88 26,67 50,21 64,45 78,58 1996 94,65 97,40 98,95 99,67 46,92 67,99 74,95 88,13 1992 89,10 90,44 93,98 95,20 48,47 55,29 62,89 61,62 : 1998 99,52 98,97 99,27 99,71 79,03 78,05 84,13 85,24 1989 79,49 73,85 78,26 84,37 14,41 18,04 26,47 40,78 1999 60,49 67,44 89,35 92,47 21,24 35,71 42,04 53,35 1989 81,68 74,06 73,48 90,45 10,60 7,87 14,92 30,01 1996 85,04 80,20 93,93 96,55 20,85 17,80 33,86 38,98 1989 93,40 94,72 96,15 98,36 58,40 75,51 85,09 92,08 1996 89,46 96,50 97,34 98,77 72,19 85,26 83,97 90,37 1989 99,36 99,15 99,33 99,62 83,68 81,51 82,42 87,81 1996 99,65 99,78 98,74 99,34 93,73 96,61 100,00 98,37 1989 52,31 64,64 82,56 91,88 11,96 27,14 44,07 63,81 1996 73,84 81,65 91,11 96,45 20,75 43,62 57,66 76,83 1992 92,91 95,71 98,04 98,67 27,23 32,76 37,44 38,58 1998 99,13 99,15 98,84 99,49 32,83 31,74 42,13 45,48 1996 60,88 39,65 55,79 68,96 17,15 17,01 22,60 26,50 1989 65,96 66,41 67,68 73,54 25,85 32,34 36,36 42,50 1999 51,23 78,78 83,33 88,16 46,27 44,82 40,27 43,74 1989 87,19 80,94 86,36 81,82 83,06 91,79 87,26 81,99 1996 83,40 84,78 85,65 89,48 70,88 79,52 81,87 85,27 1989 64,93 82,24 88,77 94,11 41,37 52,58 62,28 70,22 1996 76,72 86,47 90,19 93,61 44,38 62,19 63,32 69,30 1989 94,98 94,17 95,35 97,73 63,81 59,76 65,84 69,40 1996 94,77 95,99 96,54 97,20 68,40 67,76 73,43 77,06 : Wodon, Ajwad (2000a). 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