Ebb and Flow: Key Messages MIGRATION shapes the lives of people who move and transforms the geographies and economies of their points of departure and destinations. THE WATER SECTOR, and the availability of water itself, implicitly or explicitly shape migration flows. From the earliest days of human activity, rains, rivers, coasts, and seas have determined the spatial distribution of economic activity. Even today, water has the potential to influence the process of economic transformation by affecting movement and migration. Water availability can have a large effect on regional economies and hence where people choose to live and work and the skills they carry. In turn, the regions where people settle require access to adequate water resources—accompanied by commensurate infrastructure investments—to sustain growth and allow populations to survive and thrive. This report examines the nexus of water, migration decisions, and economic development. VOLUME 1 VOLUME 2 Water, Migration, and Development (Zaveri et al. Water in the Shadow of Conflict in the Middle 2021) provides a global perspective on these issues East and North Africa (Borgomeo et al. 2021) and focuses on internal migration. It offers the first focuses on the world’s most water-scarce region, global assessment of the empirical link between which is experiencing high levels of intraregional water, migration, and development. and international migration, and unprecedented levels of conflict-induced forced displacement. Focus of the Report The report examines the role of water and climate change will accelerate the process. availability fluctuations in the migration and Adapting to rainfall variability is often much more development nexus. It assesses the impacts of challenging than acclimating to averages because changes in water availability that are induced by of the deviations’ unpredictable duration, uncertain “rainfall shocks,” in which rainfall is significantly magnitude, and unknown frequency. Thus, water above or below the long-run average for that availability fluctuations will likely be the main driving region. These deviations from trends and long-run force underlying water-induced migration and averages are increasingly more widespread— development. Figure 1 The Report Addresses Three Key Questions 2 This report’s new findings explore the why, To shed light on the link between water who, where, and what of water and migration. shocks and migration, this report employs the It combines several national and global data largest data set on internal migration ever sets, employs multiple statistical techniques that assembled. This includes data from over 442 rely on machine learning and causal inference, million individuals from 189 different population and harnesses case studies based on semi- censuses in 64 countries between 1960 and 2015. structured interviews. Through machine learning, the analysis tests how well rainfall deficits, as measured by periods of low rainfall relative to long-run averages, predict Learning about Water’s Role in migration decisions relative to other crucial Migration from Half a Billion Records variables that determine whether a person migrates: a person’s age, gender, educational level, Before turning to the why, who, and where of water household size, and marital status. and migration, a more fundamental question must be asked: how much of a role does water play in The machine learning analysis shows that rainfall global migration? (See figure 1.) deficits are significant predictors of population movements within countries around the world. Each dot in figure 2 shows the importance of each Figure 2 Importance of Characteristics in Explaining Migration Random forest model explaining migration in 64 countries Relative explanator y power of various characteristics (education = 100) 300 Explanatory power 100 30 10 Rainfall shock Marital status Gender Education Household siz e Age Source: World Bank figure based on analysis using data from 189 different censuses and weather data from Willmott, C. J., and K. Matsuura. 2018. Terrestrial Air Temperature and Precipitation: Monthly and Annual Time Series (1900–2017). Note: The figure summarizes the results of 189 estimates derived using random forest techniques to explain the importance of various characteristics in explaining migration behavior. Each dot represents the results from a different country/year. The y-axis shows how critical each variable along the x-axis is for explaining migration in that country/year. Values are normalized with respect to education, such that the mean value of education takes a value of 100, and all other countries are shown relative to education’s explanatory power, with values over (under) 100 implying that the value is more (less) important for explaining migration patterns. 3 characteristic for explaining migration in a given than education, figure 2 shows that the range country relative to education, which is used as a of importance varies considerably, and in some benchmark because it is a critical determinant of countries dry rainfall shocks can be as important as migration. Not surprisingly, age and household size, gender, marital status, or even education. on average, are more important than education, Building on the machine learning analysis, the and have the largest explanatory power for out- report digs deeper into some of the evidence and migration. Other characteristics, such as gender causal relationships between water, migration, and or marital status, are, on average, as relevant as development, focusing on the cases of internal education. The results show that periods of low migration (Volume 1) and of forced displacement in rainfall can strongly influence migration outcomes conflict-affected areas of the Middle East and North in addition to traditional drivers of migration. Even Africa (Volume 2). though their occurrence is slightly less important V O L U M E 1: W AT E R , M I G R AT I O N , AN D DE VELOPMENT Why. Water deficits result in five times as much backgrounds do not match what is in demand. migration as do water deluges, despite the They can therefore face a wage gap of up to 3.4 national and international attention that floods percent at their destination compared to those receive. But there are important nuances to why moving from wetter regions. This has profound and when these events lead to migration. Even implications for the migrants as well as the regions when facing the loss of their livelihoods due to they move to, highlighting that adverse shocks droughts and water deficits, people who are can have economic consequences far beyond the extremely poor may still lack the resources, access regions they affect immediately. to credit, or networks that would enable them to What. Cities are most often the destination move in search of a better life elsewhere. For this of migrants, and they are often considered reason, the migration response to water deficits more resilient than rural areas to the types of varies based on country income, with low-income water shocks that induce migration. But even in country residents 80 percent less likely to move cities, water deficits can haunt migrants. Recent relative to higher-income residents. These trapped high-profile urban droughts in Cape Town, populations often face a triple whammy of water São Paolo, and Chennai show that some of the deficits, reduced economic opportunities in their world’s megacities are increasingly facing “day region, and no means to move to places with more zero“ events, in which water supplies become opportunities. While these groups are often hidden threateningly low. Dozens of smaller cities from media headlines, they represent a policy across the globe face similar fates of dwindling concern just as serious as migration. water supplies yet gain little attention. Such Who. Water shocks can influence who migrates. water shortages can significantly slow urban Workers in developing countries, especially those growth, compounding the vulnerability of in rapidly urbanizing middle-income countries, migrants. Depending on the size of the water who move from rural to urban areas due to water shock, city growth can slow by up to 12 percent deficits, often bring lower than average education during drought years, enough to reverse critical levels and skills. These workers are typically development progress. less productive in cities because their skills and 4 V O L U M E 2 : W AT E R I N T H E S H A D O W O F C O N F L I C T IN THE MIDDLE E AST AND NORTH AFRICA Why. Water shocks can lead to small-scale forced displacement: internally displaced people in Access to safe southern Iraq and across Libya identify water drinking water is a scarcity and lack of access to basic services, including drinking water, as main reasons for daily struggle for moving. Contrary to common belief, the report millions of forcibly finds that the evidence linking water shocks with conflict and forced displacement in the Middle East displaced Syrians, and North Africa is not unequivocal. Analysis of Iraqis, Palestinians, Yemenis, case studies and historical event databases shows and Libyans and international that water shocks, notably droughts, are more frequently related to cooperation than conflict, migrants in the region, both at the domestic and international levels. heightening public health risks. While conflict is a possible consequence of water shocks, the contrary is a real, more frequent and concerning outcome: water is a victim and casualty What. Forcibly displaced people and their host of conflict, with negative impacts on public health communities face myriad water-related challenges. and the well-being of millions of people. Indeed, Access to safe drinking water is a daily struggle since 2011, in the region’s conflicts in West Bank for millions of forcibly displaced Syrians, Iraqis, and Gaza, the Republic of Yemen, the Syrian Arab Palestinians, Yemenis, and Libyans and international Republic, and Libya, water infrastructure has been migrants in the region, heightening public health targeted at least 180 times. risks. Tanker trucks often help fill the gap; however, Who. The Middle East and North Africa region has significant issues of water quality, reliability, and the world’s highest levels of forced displacement, affordability remain. Host communities face with an estimated 7.2 million refugees, of whom 2.7 localized declines in water availability and quality, million are hosted in the region, and 12.4 million and unplanned burdens on water services following internally displaced people fleeing protracted the arrival of the forcibly displaced. However, armed conflicts. While these numbers reflect a regional experiences suggest that empowering stark reality, they do not fully reflect the additional and working through local governments can adapt challenges faced by individuals, especially those and expand coverage among the forcibly displaced from socially excluded groups and marginalized and their host communities. In addition to water communities. An average of 4 percent of refugees scarcity, floods threaten the lives and livelihoods of and asylum seekers in the region have disability the forcibly displaced and undermine humanitarian status, with many struggling to access water and development responses. For those living in services. Single women, widows, and children are closed, remote camps and informal settlements, a second group of forcibly displaced individuals flood risks are particularly high. facing heightened water risks, including higher rates of gender-based violence exacerbated by the inadequate access to water supply and sanitation facilities. 5 Policy Challenge—The Three Ps No single policy can adequately address the many impacts of water shocks. Instead, overlapping and complementary policies that target people and places are needed to improve livelihoods and turn water- induced crises into opportunities for growth. Protect livelihoods in the place of origin. X Climate-smart agriculture and farmer-led irrigation can buffer rural livelihoods from X Water storage and supplemental irrigation can climate change and increasing rainfall buffer vulnerable rural communities against variability while minimizing the environmental water variability and scarcity, lessening the footprint. Their context-sensitive nature impact of rainfall deficits on migration. But there makes these tools effective for increasing are caveats: productivity, enhancing resilience, and • When irrigation water supplies are provided reducing greenhouse gas emissions in a more with little or no charge, it signals that water inclusive and sustainable way. is abundant, even when it is scarce. This can X Either with or in lieu of physical infrastructure, counterintuitively reduce agricultural resilience green infrastructure (such as watersheds and and heighten vulnerability by incentivizing their associated forests that store, filter, and farmers to switch to more water-intensive gradually distribute both surface water and crops. Thus, these investments must be groundwater) can enhance the resilience and combined with regulations and policies that quality of water supplies. Investing in their promote judicious use. preservation or restoration can provide long- • Investments in physical infrastructure can term benefits while boosting shorter-term generate a “moral hazard” by incentivizing job creation. Forests are a vital source of people to remain in or even move to regions drought-proof income for the rural poor, who that are hydrologically and ecologically often obtain a greater share of income from unable to support growing populations in the forest resources than from agriculture. Forests long run. In regions where sluggish migration can act as a “green safety net” and buffer traps people in nonviable places, the focus the amount of migration in times of drought. should be to remove barriers to mobility Finally, nature-based solutions are usually more rather than place-based policies. cost-effective at providing protection against droughts and floods. Globally, on average it • In resource-scarce settings, new irrigation would cost about US$0.8 trillion to US$3 trillion systems are often at risk of becoming in irrigation infrastructure to compensate for magnets for conflict. For instance, after the buffering effects of lost natural capital the disruptions caused by the Arab Spring, due to a 10-percentage-point decrease irrigated regions of North Africa and the G5 in the share of forested land. Investing in Sahel countries were more likely to be sources complementary solutions to buffer incomes— of conflict. Decisions that alter access to such as protecting watersheds and forests shared resources may need complementary while providing a canal or dam for irrigation— investments in governance, institutions, and produces greater benefits than investing in any effective social protection systems for the single one of these solutions. poorest and most vulnerable populations. 6 Provide people-centered investments. Preserve and sustain resources and X While the provision of irrigation infrastructure infrastructure in cities. and nature-based solutions may provide buffers X As the challenges to absorb the growing that reduce the impacts of drought, residual demands of urban populations and shocks to risks remain. Safety net programs, such as water supplies increase, city planners will need cash and in-kind transfers, are critical as a last to build greater resilience in cities. Increasing backstop to prevent severe deprivation when water supply through desalination or other water shocks hit. supply-augmenting technologies may seem like X Migrants’ net economic effect at the destination a quick fix, but these can be costly, risky, and depends on how well they are socially and inefficient. Demand-side management might economically integrated into their new homes. offer a better way forward. Dynamically efficient Poor migrants in informal settlements often volumetric pricing, for instance, can adjust the endure high levels of violence and insecurity; price of water to better match the scarcity and lack basic services such as water supply and reduce water footprints. Other technologies, sanitation, schools, and health care; and reside such as smart water meters and water- in unsafe housing. Efforts to improve these conserving appliances, can help households services will pay large dividends, both to reduce their water footprint with little sacrifice. the migrants and to the broader city. Active X Water reallocation may offer another solution labor market policies that build skills through for ever-thirstier cities. Flexible approaches support and training modalities and integrate that allow for emergency transfers of water migrants into labor markets can help to ensure when needed can protect cities during extreme migrants can take advantage of the economic droughts. Drought option contracts could give opportunities cities have to offer. “No-regret” the city the right to buy a set quantity of water solutions, such as investments in workers’ at agreed prices during a drought. Since the education and training, can ensure that workers option would be exercised only under agreed are productive wherever they choose to locate. weather conditions, this would preserve water for X The context of legacies of violence, disrupted agriculture during normal situations and ensure economic and social networks, and grievances adequate remuneration for any water transfers. can affect the success of investments. X Better urban planning is sorely needed. Cities Therefore, they require careful design to lie on impervious concrete foundations that ensure that communities’ voices are heard block drainage patterns and cause water to in decision-making. In addition, trade-offs run through the city—causing floods—and between short-term uncoordinated measures then away from the city—creating a missed and long-term water sustainability objectives opportunity. If cities were redesigned to need to be managed through extensive resemble sponges, they could soak up that coordination between humanitarian, security, water, storing it below ground for future use, and development actors. For example, and prevent it from damaging above-ground overreliance on private water vendors to structures. Such designs can improve urban deliver water in the short term can undermine water security and build resilience to climate institutional ability to provide sector oversight change, ensuring that the cities’ bright lights and deliver services in the long run. remain attractive to future migrants and current residents. 7 X In cities vulnerable to conflict, expansion and prioritization of easy-to-operate wastewater rehabilitation of water infrastructure enhances treatment solutions (such as stabilization ponds water security, which in turn underpins the and constructed wetlands). These infrastructure gradual restoration of key public services. City investments should be integrated within planners should protect water infrastructure broader plans to extend basic services to camps through redundancies (replicating elements and informal settlements, and expand urban of infrastructure, designing systems with water systems’ capacity to respond to higher diversified supply sources), contingency plans water demand. (stocking up consumables for water treatment plants, nominating replacement staff), and References Borgomeo, Edoardo, Anders Jägerskog, Esha Zaveri, Jason Russ, Amjad Khan, and Richard Damania. 2021. Water in the Shadow of Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa. Vol. 2 of Ebb and Flow. Washington, DC: World Bank. Zaveri, Esha, Jason Russ, Amjad Khan, Richard Damania, Edoardo Borgomeo, and Anders Jägerskog. 2021. Water, Migration, and Development. Vol. 1 of Ebb and Flow. Washington, DC: World Bank. © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. Some rights reserved. 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