Document of The World Bank FILE COPY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-2747-KO REPORT AND RECONMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE CITIZENS NATIONAL BANK WITH THE GUARANTEE OF THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA March 20, 1980 Thils doueNt has a retritled distribiuon and may be used by recipients only in the perfonmnce of their ecbl dutle. Its cotents my not otherwie be disclosed without World Bunk uthorizatIn. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Until January 11, 1980 Won 485 - US$1.00 Won 1,000 - US$2.062 Won 1 million - US$2,062 From January 11, 1980 Won 580 - US$1.00 Won 1,000 - US$1.724 Won 1 million - US$1.724 ABBREVIATIONS ADB - Asian Development Bank BOK - Bank of Korea CNB - Citizens National Bank EPB - Economic Planning Board FFYP - Fourth Five Year Plan IRF - Industrial Rationalization Fund KCGF - Korea Credit Guarantee Fund KDB - Korea Development Bank KDFC - Korea Development Finance Corporation KFX - Korea Foreign Exchange KFSB - Korea Federation of Small Business MCI - Ministry of Commerce and Industry MOF - Ministry of Finance NACF - National Agricultural Cooperative Federation NFC - National Fisheries Cooperative NIF - National Investment Fund SMI - Small and Medium Industries SMIB - Small and Medium Industry Bank SMIPC - Small and Medium Industry Promotion Corporation SMIPF - Small and Medium Industry Promotion Fund SSI - Small-Scale Industries FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY KOREA CITIZENS NATIONAL BANK PROJECT Loan and Project Summary Borrower: Citizens National Bank (CNB) Guarantor: Republic of Korea Amount: $30 million equivalent Terms: The proposed loan will bear interest at 8.25% p.a., amortization to conform substantially to the aggregate of the amortization schedules applicable to the specific investment projects financed out of the proceeds of the proposed loan. The maximum repayment period would be 17 years, including three years of grace. Relending Terms: CNB will onlend the proceeds of the loan to subborrowers at an interest rate of 10.25% on the average for a maximum period of 15 years, including 3 years of grace. Subborrcwers will assume the foreign exchange risk. Project The proposed loan would be used to cover approximately Description: 54% of the foreign exchange requirements of subprojects to be financed by CNB over a two-year period from mid-1980 to mid-1982. Apart from direct imports, the proceeds of the loan would be utilized by CNB to finance the foreign exchange components of domestically produced capital goods (estimated at 60%). In order to ensure access of the smallest firms to Bank funds and to encourage a broader dispersal of the Bank funds outside the Seoul metropolitan area, it is intended that: (a) at least $15 million of the proceeds of the proposed loan be used to make subloans to firms employing no more than 50 workers or with total assets not exceeding W 250 million; and (b) at least $15 million of the proceeds of the proposed loan be used to finance projects located outside of the city limits of Seoul. The maximum size of individual subloans would be limited to $400,000. The proposed loan would assist CNB in its efforts to support the Government's policy of increasing the regional dispersal of employment This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contenst may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. - ii - opportunities and of deepening the industrial structure. With its extensive branch network, its close connections with and easy access to small industries all over the country, and its recently acquired authority to conduct foreign currency borrowings and lending, CNB is expected to play a larger role in the development of the SSI sector. The project would also enable the Bank to help build up CNB's project appraisal capabilities. There are no special risks associated with the project. Estimated Disbursements: Bank FY 1981 1982 1983 …---- ($ million) ------- Annual 9.0 13.50 7.5 Cumulative 9.0 22.50 30.0 Staff Appraisal Report: No. 2829-KO, dated March 7, 1980. REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN "O THE CITIZENS NATIONAL BANK WITH THE GUARANTEE OF THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed loan to the Citizens National Bank (CNB), with the guarantee of the Republic of Korea, for the equivalent of $30 million. The loan will bear interest at 8.25% p.a. and will be amortized substantially in accordance with the aggregate of the amortization schedules applicable to the specific invest- ment projects financed out of its proceeds. The maximum repayment period applicable to subborrowers would be 15 years, including 3 years of grace. PART I - THE ECONdMY /1 2. The latest Economic Report entitled "Korea: Rapid Growth and Search for New Perspectives" was distributed under cover of Se M79-390, dated May 24, 1979. The Country Data Sheets are attached as Annex 1. Recent Developments 3. During 1977 and 1978, the growth of GNP in real terms outstripped the target of 9.5% p.a. postulated in the Fourth Five Year Plan (1977-81). As a result of a rapid increase in domestic demand, the rate of increase of real GNP accelerated from 10.3% in 1977 to 11.6% in 1978. For the first time in many years, the increase in domestic demand for manufactured goods exceeded the increase in manufactured exports. This increase in domestic demand, fueled by substantial increases in private construction and equipment investment, resulted in capacity shortages for some essential items, and a speculative investment mood. For the first time, a shortage of certain types of skilled labor became a matter of greater concern than unemployment, which declined substantially during 1978. For the third year in a row, there was a substantial increase in real wages in the manu- facturing sector, which was in excess of the increase in labor productivity. There was also an increase in the rate of inflation; during 1978, the wholesale prices increased by about 12% as compared to 9% in 1977, and consumer prices increased by about 14%, compared to a 10% increase in 1977. /1 This section is identical to the corresponding one in the President's Report on the Higher Technical Education Loan (No. P-2694-KO, dated January 30, 1980), which was distributed under cover of R80-15 of the same date. - 2 - 4. Exports continued to grow according to the Fourth Plan targets, but after increasing by 43% in 1976 and 26% in 1977, the real growth of goods and services slowed to 18% in 1978. On the other hand, as a result of a substantial increase in the demand for imported capital goods, total imports increased more rapidly than exports, resulting in a sizeable trade deficit. However, overseas construction activity continued to expand rapidly during 1978, increasing from $3.5 billion in 1977 to $8.1 billion in 1978. Although the receipts from these contracts resulted in a substantial surplus in the invisible account, a current account deficit of about $1 billion emerged as compared with the surplus of about $12 million in 1977. However, in view of the need to promote allocative efficiency and to counter domestic inflationary pressures, the Government initiated in 1978 a far-reaching program of import liberalization. Korea's access to inter- national capital markets improved considerably enabling the repayment, ahead of schedule, of large amounts of short-term loans incurred on hard terms during 1974/75 when the economy faced the twin shocks of rapidly rising prices of its major imports, particularly petroleum and foodgrains, as well as the international recession. Major Trends and Economic Policy for 1979 5. Economic policy for 1979 was formulated on the premise that infla- tion and rapid increases in wages were weakening the international competi- tiveness of Korean exports which could jeopardize sustained rapid economic growth. Hence, the major emphasis was on stabilization. The stabilization program has four major components. First, the tight monetary and fiscal policy designed to reduce excess liquidity in the economy. Secondly, measures designed to correct structural imbalances caused by inflation. These include the adjustment of investment priorities in favor of the industries producing necessities for domestic consumption, the encouragement of non-grain produc- tion in agriculture, investment to modernize the marketing and distribution network, and greater investment in public transportation. Thirdly, measures specifically designed to create greater competition in the economy, including the deregulation of prices on a large number of commodities, the removal of barriers to entry of new firms in some industries, and accelerated import liberalization. In addition, a set of measures designed to assist the poorest segments of the population who had been hardest hit by price increases were introduced which include the expansion of public work programs, the exemption from the payment of tuition by children of low-income families and some direct cash payments. Although the effects on the economy of this last set of measures are not anti-inflationary, the Government considered them necessary for reasons of equity. 6. While the stabilization program has had considerable success in containing domestically generated inflation, it has been overwhelmed by the increase in import prices, particularly of oil. During the first eight months of 1979, wholesale food prices increased by 6% and wholesale consumer goods prices by 9%, but the price of raw materials, which are mainly imported, increased by 34% and the price of capital goods by 12%. The Government has boldly combined its stabilization efforts with a reduction of price controls - 3 - and removed most of the suppressed inflation which had been built up. Most government-administered prices were increased to realistic levels, including transport rates, coal prices, petroleum product prices and those of a range of industrial products. Consequently, wholesale prices are expected to increase by around 25% and consumer prices by about 22% in 1979, which would be more than double the targeted figures. 7. As was to be expected, the Government's stabilization policies have had some impact on output and employment. But exogenous factors such as a weakening of the world economy and an increase in protectionism in the developed countries have exacerbated the problems resulting from a weakening of Korea's export competitiveness. While the momentum of economic growth in 1978 continued into 1979, a substantial increase in inventories in the early part of the year was a symptom of the impending slackening of economic growth. Furthermore, there has been a deterioration in Korea's terms of trade in the current year due to higher import prices. However, the pragmatic and effective measures the Government has taken appear to be paying off. The upsurge in imports seems to be decelerating, resulting in no small measure from the Government's energy conservation measures which are proving to be effective. Exports, on the other hand, are proving to be rather more buoyant in the latter part of the year and it is expected that export value will be close to the target of $15.5 billion. As a result of the substantial increase in the value of imports, it is expected that the trade deficit would be of the order of $4 billion. However, as a result of a surplus of about $1 billion in invisible trade, the current account deficit would be about $3 billion, representing about 6% of GNP. The financing of this should be manageable. Longer-Term Prospects 8. There appears to be a consensus that Korea should continue to pursue the high growth path, that greater stress should be placed on social develop- ment and that there was a need to effect greater financial liberalization and to free the private sector from the reins of Government control. The mainte- nance of a high growth rate is essential if Korea is to achieve the objectives of greater equity, of ensuring that the fruits of rapid development are available to the mass of the people. However, at the new threshold at which the Korean economy has arrived, there is a need to redirect efforts towards reconciling growth with equity. In order to achieve a better rural/urban balance, the Government has reiterated its support of the rural development programs, the generation of off-farm employment opportunities and of programs to improve agricultural productivity. For interpersonal equity, more resources would have to be devoted to the educational sector with increased emphasis on improving the lower income group's access to the system. As indicated earlier, to help the poor, the Government has moved to strengthen programs focussed directly on the target groups and away from the former reliance on general subsidies, whose effects tend to be relatively diffused. 9. Since the early sixties, Korea's pace of urbanization has been one of the highest among the developing countries. In the early phases of its growth process, Korea economized on social and urban development expenditures, - 4 - particularly in transportation and housing. With the rapid growth of household incomes and the concentration of population in the major urban centers, the demand for urban services is rising rapidly. The Government is, therefore, giving greater emphasis to programs for providing increasing housing, particularly for the low-income groups, and for dealing with the problems of urban transportation. The Bank hopes to play a role in support of these programs. 10. A further dimension to the problem of harmonizing growth with reasonable price stability and equity is the need to review the whole nexus of policies connected with credit, the interest rate structure, subsidies, resource mobilization, capital market development and financial liberaliza- tion. These aspects were reviewed by the financial sector mission which visited Korea in November 1979. The missions' draft report is expected to be discussed with the Korean authorities in April 1980 as the next step in the Bank's dialogue with the country on financial sector policy and institutional evolution. 11. Although the assassination of President Park could be construed as the end of an era, the demonstrated dynamism and resilience of the Korean economy, the diligence of its labor force, the efficiency of its economic managers and entrepreneurs, and the massive investment in the last two years, all combine to suggest that Korea will be able to tackle its emerging problems and sustain its rapid growth in the eighties notwithstanding the change in leadership. The rapidly increasing and skilled labor force, the potential to raise productivity by adopting new and advanced technology and the shift of labor from traditional sectors where productivity is low to the modern sectors where productivity is high provide the sources of growth in the eighties. Furthermore, although the international economic environment is somewhat unfavorable, Korea continues to exploit the opportunities to expand trade and other forms of economic activities wherever these could be found and is seeking to complement its external activities by undertaking improvements in housing, mass transportation, education and health services, which some Korean economists refer to as "the second engine of growth." External Capital Requirements 12. Despite the strong possibility that the growth rate of GNP will be slower than was originally forecast for 1979 and 1980, the external capital requirements during the period will be markedly higher than originally expected. Amortization requirements are estimated to be about $1.5 billion in 1979 and $1.7 billion in 1980. Allowing for the augmentation of its foreign exchange reserves (about $1 billion annually), the gross requirements of external capital will be about $5.5 billion in 1979 and $5.7 billion in 1980, assuming that current account deficits of about $3 billion will be incurred in each of the years. Taking into account committed but undisbursed medium and long-term loans, new commitments of about $5-6 billion would be required in each of the years. - 5 - 13. While Korea is extending its use of commercial financing from the traditional suppliers and private bank credits to Euro-dollar syndicated loans and bond issues in the Euro-bond and Asian bond market and is expected to derive an increasing proportion of its total requirements from such sources, the magnitude of these external capital requirements is such that it will have to continue to rely on considerable capital inflows from official sources, including Eximbanks. It should, however, be emphasized that the higher anticipated levels of external capital inflow (relative to the Fourth Plan targets) are a consequence of its higher investment rates rather than a shortfall in the domestic savings rate. Thus, about 90% of Korea's investment will continue to be financed from domestic savings. The ratio of foreign savings to GNP is expected to decline in the eighties, following the restructuring and readjustment planned for the next three years. Servicing of the debt should not pose difficulties given the present debt service ratio and the continuing emphasis on export growth, provided that the proportion of external debt incurred on shorter term and at high interest rates is not excessive. The projected ratio of debt service payments to total export earnings is expected to remain in the range of 12-15% up to the mid-eighties, and to decline steadily thereafter. 14. On January 12, 1980, the Government announced the following measures: the devaluation of the Won from 485 to 580 Won to the US$, an upward adjustment of the one year time deposit interest rate from 18.6% to 24% and of the prime interest rate from 18.5% to 24.5%. The impact of these measures on Korea's current and prospective economic situation will be evaluated by the recent economic mission. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS 15. As of December 31, 1979, Korea had received 47 Bank Loans (including one Third Window Loan) and 8 IDA Credits, totalling $2,671.2 million in loans and $106.8 million in credits (taking into account cancellations and the refinacing of one IDA Credit in a subsequent Bank Loan). As of that date, $814.3 million of the total Bank lending remained undisbursed on effective Loans and Credits, mostly from commitments in the past two years. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank Loans, IDA Credits, and IFC Investments as of that date and notes on the execution of ongoing projects. As indicated in the notes, progress on project implementation is generally satisfactory. 16. In recent years, the thrust of the Bank Group's lending operations in Korea has been directed towards assisting the Government's efforts: (a) to secure the external resources required to supplement domestic savings in sustaining a high GNP growth rate by following a policy of rapid export- oriented industrialization; (b) to avoid the emergence of infrastructure bottlenecks; and (c) to complement industrial development with agricultural and rural development schemes aimed at bringing about a better dispersal of the fruits of growth through raising incomes and improving the quality of life in the rural areas. - 6 - 17. A substantial part of Bank financing has been directed towards the vital industrial sector through lending to Korea's three major development banks. The Korea Development Finance Corporation has received $320.0 million, the Korea Development Bank $252.5 million and the Small and Medium Industry Bank $145 million in Bank loans for relending to private industry. The primary beneficiaries of these loans have not been the development banks, but the industrial enterprises, ranging from large ventures to small ones, which have been provided with financing through the financial intermediaries. This has resulted not only in the overall development of the industrial sector, but has also contributed to the achievement of institutional improvements and of the Government's objective of decentralizing industry. The loan of $80 million for a Heavy Machinery Project was intended to assist in achieving the structural shift to more skill-intensive industries, which is necessary to ensure the long-term viability of Korea's export strategy. A recently approved loan of $29 million by the Bank would stimulate and support the development of technological capabilities in the Korean electronics industry. 18. As Korea's economy continued to grow aud the pace of industriali- zation has quickened, there has had to be a parallel expansion of transport facilities. The Bank Group, through its association with the Government's efforts to modernize and expand the transport sector dating back to 1962, has played an important role in these developments. Some $340 million has been provided for six railway projects designed to increase the railroad's capacity and improve its operations; four loans totalling $334.5 million have been made for highway construction and paving of high priority sentions of the national network and for a countrywide maintenance organization; and two loans amount- ing to $147 million have been provided for the expansion of port facilities at Busan, the premier port, and Mugho, primarily for improving coal handling facilities. 19. Korea's paucity of natural resources and dependence on the manufac- turing segment of its economy have resulted in the adoption of a strategy based on maximizing the advantages of a skilled and hardworking labor force. The Bank Group has been involved in helping to meet the requirements for appropriately trained workers and certain categories of skilled manpower through its lending for four education projects, which have pursued the broad objectives of technical manpower development either through the expansion of relevant subsectors or through specific quality improvements. Together, these projects have catered to a wide range of manpower training needs within agriculture, fisheries, industry and services. 20. Korea's record of achievement in modernizing its agricultural sector, although less spectacular than the gains made in the industrial sphere, is nevertheless commendable. The past fifteen years have seen agri- cultural output grow at about 4% per annum, which has resulted in the country's becoming near self-sufficient in its staple food, rice, and made possible a steady and perceptible improvement in the living standards of the 40% of Korea's population who live in the countryside and rely primarily on agrarian pursuits for their livelihood. The Bank has lent $325.5 million for the improvement of irrigation facilities, land and seed development and the - 7 - provision of agricultural credit to farmers and processors of agricultural products. In addition, $155 million has been provided for two rural infra- structure projects in support of the Government's rural development program, initiated in 1971, to improve the quality of life and the standard of living in the rural areas. Recently a $125 million loan was provided by the Bank to help meet the growing demand for municipal, industrial and irrigation water in the Han Basin southeast of the capital city, Seoul; reduce flood damage; and generate electricity to augment and provide peaking capacity for Korea's power system. 21. The Bank's first essay into the field of regional development in Korea, through the project approved in January 1975 (Loan 1070-KO), has proved successful. The project was designed to support the Government's policy by financing high priority investments in the poor, primarily agricultural, southwest region. A loan of $65 million for a second project for the devel- opment of the region was approved by the Executive Directors on September 11, 1979, and declared effective on February 15, 1980. 22. Excluding one project that was cancelled subsequently, IFC had, by December 31, 1979, entered into 26 commitments, totalling $68.1 million (net of participations and cancellations). Korea's industrial development programs have required large capital expenditures in the private sector, a situation which has enabled a substantially enhanced IFC presence in the past few years. 23. A primary objective of the Bank's future lending to Korea is to provide assistance in sustaining the growth momentum and in addressing the emerging issues which the Korean economy is facing. The maturity of many of the Korean institutions suggests that it would be appropriate to adopt a sector lending approach in some areas. The basic issue is whether Korea can deepen and diversify its industrial structure to the extent necessary to ensure the attainment of its export targets. Lending to industry will be diversified by the provision of the proposed loan to the Citizens National Bank in support of the small enterprises as well as a loan for a second machinery project, which will provide financial and technical assistance to small- and medium-scale machinery industries. It will also be necessary to introduce RD&E programs which are better adapted to the technological needs of industrial development. In addition to the loan for the Electronics Technology Project which was approved on March 22, 1979, a loan for the technological development of technology-intensive industries is envisaged in the lending program. 24. Korea's industrialization program, which calls for entering into more complex fields of manufacturing than hitherto, will require increasingly high levels of technical competence on the part of its labor force. The recently approved loan for higher technical education will contribute to the modernization and improvement of the system of higher technical education so as to increase its flexibility and responsiveness to the changing requirements of the economy. - 8 - 25. Another strand in the lending strategy is increased support of the Government's efforts to spread the fruits of growth even more equitably by the diversification and expansion of the output of the agricultural sector and through nationwide development programs. Projects are envisaged for land/ water resource development, for agricultural credit, marketing and processing, for low-income housing, and for the further development of rural infrastruc- ture and facilities in selected provincial areas, which would enhance incomes and quality of life in the lesser developed regions of the country and would have a significant impact on the problem of migration to the major metropolitan areas. 26. The further development of the industrial and agricultural sectors and the anticipated growth of exports will require concurrent infrastructural development. Although the transport sector will be given less emphasis than in the past, the investments required are large and, thus, there is consider- able support for this sector in the proposed lending program. Greater emphasis will be given to urban transportation, in view of the emerging problems of urban congestion, particularly in the main metropolitan areas. 27. The share of the Bank Group in Korea's total external debt disbursed and outstanding at the end of 1978 was about 10%, and its share of debt ser- vice was of the order of 6% at that time. These ratios are expected to increase to around 13% and 7%, respectively, by the mid-eighties. PART III - THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 28. Korea has been able to sustain an impressive record of economic performance for more than a decade, achieving an average growth rate of aggregate real GNP of nearly 10% p.a. since 1962. This achievement appears all the more remarkable when judged in the context of the country's poor endowment of natural resources. Most of Korea is mountainous and only about a quarter of the land area is cultivable; the principal known mineral resource is anthracite coal, available in quantity but of relatively poor coking quality. 29. Korea's growth strategy has been based on the expansion of manufacturing activity and manufactured exports. Rapid growth has induced considerable structural changes in the economy. Although agricultural output rose at an average of 4% p.a. between 1962 and 1978, the rapid growth of the manufacturing sector, at 18.7% p.a., transformed a predominantly agricultural economy (the share of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, in GNP was 43% in 1962, while that of mining and manufacturing was only 11%) into one which is largely dependent on mining and manufacturing (by 1978, the share of mining and manufacturing in GNP had risen to around 33%, in 1975 constant prices). 30. In the early 1960s, Korea's exports, though growing in relation to GNP, were not very significant. In 1965, commodity exports were $181 million of which manufactures amounted to $112 million, constituting about -9 - 7% of manufacturing output; by 1978, commodity exports reached $12.7 billion, with the share of manufactures being close to 90% and representing 27% of total manufacturing output. The growth of manufactured exports was accompanied by some changes in the structure of exports. Though Korea's export pattera continued to display a high degree of reliance on a few labor-intensive traditional exports (textiles, clothing, footwear, plywood, and certain miscellaneous manufactures), there was also a discernible switch in the direction of more sophisticated skill-intensive products. Several new light industry products, such as electrical machinery, machine tools, electronic goods and components, and transport equipment (including ships), were added to Korea's range of exports. At the same time, the pursuit of backward linkages, usually from exports, enabled domestic production to replace imports in certain sectors, e.g., textiles, apparel, sewing machines, certain metal products and chemicals, and notably after 1968, in particular segments of the basic metal, petrochemical and machinery industries. 31. Korea's export performance and its efforts at selective import substitution are also reflected in the structural changes which occurred in the manufacturing sector over the last decade. While value addded in manufacturing rose at a rate of about 19% p.a. between 1962 and 1978 (in constant prices), the composition of manufacturing output changed quite markedly in favor of the metals, machinery, electronics, chemicals and shipbuilding subsectors. The share of these manufaturing groups rose from 23% in 1961 to 55% in 1978. Korea's efforts at reducing the concentration of its exports on the US and Japan and at developing new export markets have also met with considerable success; the combined share of those two countries dropped to about 53% in 1978 from a level of 70% in 1973. On the other hand, commodity exports to the Middle East, which were negligible in the early 1970s, exceeded $1 billion in 1978. 32. Several factors have contributed to this remarkable industrial and export performance. These include: the efficiency of factor use in manufac- turing; the magnitude of investment in industry which grew at an average rate of about 14.5% p.a. during the last decade; the rapid and continued increase in productivity levels; and the combination of appropriate exchange rate and export policies which maintained the profitability of Korean exports in the face of relatively high rates of domestic inflation without jeopardizing the efficiency of resource allocation. 33. Korea's long-term development strategy as stated in the Fourth Five Year Plan (FFYP), was formulated on the premise that the growth of manufacturing and exports would remain the key elements in such a strategy. The Economic Management Plan for 1979-81, which replaced the original FFYP for these years, projected a further increase in the relative importance of both manufacturing activity and manufactured exports by 1981. The industrial sector was expected to maintain a rate of growth of about 13.5% p.a. fueled by an annual growth rate of manufactured exports of more than 12% for the period 1979-81. However, the persistence of inflation during 1979 coupled with protectionism in Korea's major developed-country markets induced a slowdown in - 10 - the growth of Korea's exports and, concomitantly, in the rate of growth of the country's manufacturing sector. A number of remedial measures, such as restraints in the growth of money supply and domestic credit and devaluation of the exchange rate, have been recently adopted in order to improve the competitiveness of Korea's exports. At the same time, programs are envisioned for the deepening of Korea's industrial structure and for the enhancement of the country's self-sufficiency in the use of intermediate and capital goods, e.g. by import substitution in the metals, machinery and chemical sectors. 34. The FFYP's estimate of total investment required for the expansion and restructuring of Korea's industrial sector was conservatively estimated at about $10.5 billion over the 1977-81 period. Real investment increased at a phenomenal 34% annual average over the period 1977-78. Nevertheless, Korea was able to reduce its reliance on foreign savings. In recent years, the Government has undertaken a major effort to increase domestic savings in order to finance investment. It has sought to stimulate savings by attempting to increase the real rates of return on financial assets. It has facilitated the flow of funds between savers and investors by encouraging the growth of commercial banks and the development banking system, the strengthening of the money market through the establishment of short-term finance companies, and the growth of the securities market to accommodate the needs of long-term finance. Several merchant banking institutions have been established, large privately held business enterprises have been encouraged to go public, the Korean Securities Finance Corporation has been restructured, and Trust Funds have been instituted. Moreover, in 1973, the Government established the National Investment Fund (NIF) to supplement the program of long-term resource mobilization through the financial system. Apart from deposits by banking institutions and savings funds, the NIF derives its funds from a variety of other sources, such as national savings associations, pension funds, postal savings and bond sales to the public. The Government has also sought to direct the flow of available resources to sectors considered strategic to the success of the Fourth Plan, with the specialized banks, development banks and the NIF serving as the instruments for the allocation of credit to selected sectors on preferential terms. Korea's three major development finance institutions, KDB, KDFC and SMIB, were responsible for over 50% of the increase in medium- and long-term loans extended to Korea enterprises in 1978; in the same year, 63% of NIF funds were directed to the heavy engineering and chemical sectors. 35. Notwithstanding the rapid expansion of aggregate domestic savings in 1977-78, it was felt that the relatively low real rates of return on savings deposits prevalent since 1974 had affected the momentum of the banking system in mobilizing deposits for allocation to priority sectors. The Government sought to correct this situation in January 1980 through an upward adjustment of the interest rate. The Small-Scale Industrial (SSI) Sector 36. Government policies in the industrial sector differentiate between large and other enterprises. The cut-off point is currently set at 300 - 11 - employees or a total asset size of W 500 million. Enterprises whose employment or asset size is smaller than the cut-off limits constitute the Small- and Medium-Scale Industrial (SMI) sector. There is no official distinction within the SMI sector between small- and medium-scale enterprises; both are eligible for the same degree of support from government sponsored programs, including financing by the Small and Medium Industry Bank (SMIB). Only the smaller end of the SMI sector, however, is eligible for financial assistance from both SMIB and from the Citizens National Bank (CNB). CNB's financing, including its newly undertaken foreign exchange lending, is statutorily confined to enterprises employing less than 100 workers. In this report, the Small-Scale Industrial (SSI) sector is notionally defined as the lower end of SMI which comprises those enterprises employing less than 100 workers. 37. So defined, the SSI sector represents an important segment of the Korean industrial structure; within manufacturing in 1977 it accounted for 87% of the total number of enterprises, 25% of employment and 16% of value-added. The export orientation of SSI enterprises is also substantial as surveys indicate that export sales accounted for 16% of total SSI sales in 1977. Over the period 1974-77, labor productivity in the SSI sector has kept pace with gains registered in the manufacturing sector as a whole. The four subsectors of textiles, fabricated metals, food processing and chemicals remain the principal SSI activities with an aggregate component ratio of 72% of value-added and 74% of employment in SSI enterprises in 1977. 38. Over the period 1974-77, SSI fixed assets investment represented an average share of 11% of total fixed assets investment in the manufacturing sector. Demand for foreign exchange by SSI enterprises can be estimated at approximately 15% of SSI fixed assets investment, reaching about $100 million in 1980, $115 million in 1981 and $132 million in 1982. Against this demand, SMIB is expected to provide less than half, with the balance to be partially covered by CNB. CNB's contribution is expected to increase continuously as it expands its foreign exchange lending. 39. Government supported programs are tailored to meet the requirements of the SMI sector as a whole, including the SSI sector. These programs were initiated in the early 1960s and include the establishnent of SMIB (in 1961) and of the Small and Medium Industry (SMI) Bureau within the Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MCI). The SMI Bureau plays a central role in formu- lating and implementing policies in the SMI sector. Promotional efforts in the SMI sector were initially confined to the provision of financial assist- ance and extension services through SMIB and to a statutory requirement enacted in 1965 that commercial banks direct at least 30% of their lending to SMI enterprises. As the importance of SMI's contribution to employment generation outside the urban areas, to the growth of exports, and to the deepening of the industrial structure through subcontracting arrangements became more apparent, the Government broadened its promotional efforts for SMI through, inter alia: (a) the establishment (in 1962) of the Korea Federation of Small Business (KFSB), an apex cooperative system; (b) the - 12 - creation of industrial estates, particularly specialized single-trade estates (e.g. leather, machine tools) for SNI enterprises geared to real- izing economies of scale through common infrastructure and facilities; and (c) the Saemaeul (New Community) Program, which promotes off-farm employment through the establishment of small factories in rural areas. 40. Notwithstanding the considerable success of its policies, the Government decided to undertake a comprehensive re-examination of the system of financial and non-financial assistance to the SEI sector, which led to the enactment in December 1978 of the Small and Medium Industry Promotion Act. In accordance with the provisions of the Act, the Small and Medium Industry Promotion Corporation (SMIPC) was established in January 1979. The SMIPC is to operate under the broad guidance of the SMI Bureau and should ultimately develop into a central agency for coordinating and executing the various promotional and assistance activities in the SMI sector. The SMIPC is an autonomous legal entity empowered to incur debt (including foreign borrowings) whose main functions are: (a) to administer a Small and Medium Industry Promotion Fund to be onlent to SlIs through various financial institutions (including SMIB and CNB) in accordance with specific guide- lines; and (b) to provide extension services (both managerial and technical) and training for SMI entrepreneurs either indirectly through a number of specialized agencies or directly at its training institute. 41. As of end November 1979, total loans outstanding from institu- tional sources to SMI enterprises amounted to W 2,573 billion, of which the commercial banking system accounted for 64%, SMIB for 24% and CNB for 12%. Access to institutional finance decreases with the size of the SSI firm due to inadequate collateral, locational disadvantage or inability to meet other banking conditions. It is estimated that the small firms employing less than 100 workers have been financing 60% of their fixed assets investments with their own funds. Therefore, a greater access to institutional finance by SSI enterprises should continue to be a central objective of the support programs sponsored by the Government. PART IV - THE PROJECT 42. The project was appraised in November 1979, and negotiations were held in Washington in February 1980. The Korean delegation was led by Mr. S.Y. Wei, Economic Counselor at the Embassy of the Republic of Korea in Washington. A report entitled "Staff Appraisal Report on the Citizens National Bank" (No. 2829-KO dated March 7, 1980) is being distributed separately. Supplementary project data are provided in Annex III. CNB's Role Within the Financial System 43. The government-owned Citizens National Bank (CNB) was established in December 1962 as a specialized financial institution to meet the financial needs of consumers and small enterprises, and to mobilize small household savings as part of the national effort to raise domestic capital for economic - 13 - development. Under the CNB Act, CNB is empowered to carry out all activities normally carried out by a commercial bank and to serve the small industries as a specialized bank. In addition to CNB, there are three specialized financial institutions, namely KDB, KDFC and SMIB, which provide development financing assistance to the industrial sector. KDB and KDFC concentrate on financing large or relatively large firms, while SMIB and CNB deal with the smaller ones. SMIB finances small and medium-sized firms either with total assets not exceeding W 500 million or employing less than 300 workers, i.e. those enterprises meeting the official definition of "SMI". CNB's financing is restricted to enterprises with less than 100 workers (small-scale manufactur- ing, mining and transportation enterprises employing 5 to 100 workers and construction and service enterprises employing 5 to 20 workers). There is no limitation on CNB's financing based on the assets of borrowers. CNB, which until the late 1960s concentrated on consumers' financing, has been undergoing a substantive transformation in the scope of its operations since the early 1970s when, at the Government's urging, it began to expand its term lending operations, with a view to assisting the smaller industrial enterprises. An important step in such transformation occurred in December 1977, when the CNB Act was amended to authorize its borrowing from external sources and making foreign currency loans. CNB obtained its first foreign currency loan of $10 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in early 1979. Among the specialized financial institutions providing development finance to industries in Korea, CNB is now the only one which deals exclusively with SSI units in that its financing is confined to enterprises with less than 100 employees, whereas SMIB is allowed to finance those with up to 300 employees. The foregoing indicates that, while there is some overlapping between SMIB and CNB, CNB's clientele clearly consists of those enterprises at the low end of the SMI spectrum. Given its new statutory authority to undertake foreign currency operations, CNB is expected to play an expanding role in developing and modernizing the SSI sector in Korea. The proposed first Bank loan to CNB will enable the Bank to effectively broaden its assistance to the Korean industrial sector to include the very small enterprises which are not the normal business focus of KDB and KDFC, and are being supported only to a limited extent by SMIB, the other financial intermediaries to whom the Bank has been lending. CNB's Legal Framework, Organization and Management 44. The CNB Act of 1962, the relevant Enforcement Decree, and CNB's Articles of Incorporation set out the broad framework for CNB's operations, policies, organization and capitalization. As a specialized financial institution, CNB is subject to the supervision of the Ministry of Finance (MOF). As a banking institution, CNB is further subject to the supervision of the Bank of Korea in connection with its commercial banking activities which are regulated by the General Banking Act. Within this broad policy and supervisory framework, CNB's management has adequate autonomy and authority in conducting CNB's day-to-day operations. 45. CNB is a well-managed and efficient institution with a competent and dedicated staff. The management rests with a full time Board of Directors comprising the President, Deputy President, five Directors and an - 14 - Auditor, all appointed by MOF. Apart from its head office in Seoul con- sisting of 20 departments, it has a nationwide network of 163 branch offices which enables it to reach SSI enterprises throughout the country. As of September 30, 1979, its staff totalled 6,424, of which 5,490 or 85% were assigned to the branch offices. Staff members tend to see CNB as a long- term career source of employment; consequently, staff turnover has been low, ranging from 3.9% to 5.9% during 1975-78. 46. After CNB was authorized to handle foreign currency borrowings and lending, an International Department was set up in late 1978. The new Department handles all external borrowings and also carries out foreign currency term lending to SSIs. At September 30, 1979, the Department had 41 staff members, of whom 20 were professionals with training in financial analysis, business administration and economics. In project appraisal and supervision, these staff will be supplemented by 9 engineers recruited in early 1979 and assigned to the Credit Analysis Department. The staff presently involved in foreign currency lending is of adequate size and qualifications to handle the expected volume of operations in the near term. CNB intends to further expand the staff of the International Department and relevant staff involved in term lending as necessary to cope with the future workload. CNB has worked out a comprehensive training program for 1980 addressed to training the new staff and upgrading the capabilities of the existing staff. The program was discussed during the negotiations and found to be satisfactory. CNB's Operations 47. In financing its lending operations, CNB has relied almost exclusively on its deposits. Apart from demand and savings deposits, CNB offers a variety of special deposit schemes differentiated by depositor, purpose and maturities. By September 30, 1979, CNB had mobilized deposits totaling W 1,010 billion, accounting for 90% of its total assets. The most important deposit scheme is the Mutual Installment Savings and Remuneration Scheme under which the depositor undertakes to deposit a fixed amount each month for a specified period (15-60 months) and, in return, CNB agrees to make a loan after a fifth of the contract period is completed and deposits made as contracted. CNB is the only institution authorized to operate this scheme in Korea. The scheme is attractive because it enables the borrower to secure medium-term (up to five years) loans at low interest rates and it provides CNB with a steady flow of deposits which can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. As of September 30, 1979, 70.1% of CNB's outstanding business loans and 68.1% of its outstanding consumer loans were under the Mutual Installment Savings and Remuneration Scheme. 48. As of September 30, 1979, CNB had a total outstanding loan port- folio of W 523.0 billion, more than double the 1976 level of W 253.1 billion. CNB has been providing three types of financial assistance in domestic currency: short- and medium-term general loans to consumers, short- and medium-term working capital loans and medium-term equipment loans to small - 15 - industries. Except for lending against special Government funds, CNB has restricted the maturities of its term loans to 5 years in view of the short-term nature of almost all its loanable resources. CNB started in 1979 to provide long-term (up to 15 years) equipment loans in foreign currency against its resources obtained from the ADB. CNB has taken on a role of helping narrow the foreign currency resource gap of the small industrial sector. 49. During the 5-year period from 1975 to 1979, CNB's overall loan approvals increased from W 208.8 billion to W 401.5 billion showing an average annual growth of 21.4%. The industry loan and consumer loan approvals increased 18.7% and 17.2%, respectively, in 1979. 50. In addition to making loans to small business firms, households and individual consumers, CNB provides extension services to its clients. Such services have been helpful in improving the business prospects of CNB's clients as well as the quality of its own portfolio. CNB intends to strengthen this activity in the future in conjunction with other institu- tions which also provide such services, under the coordination of SMIPC (para. 40). CNB has also monitored the developments in the SSI sector by conducting comprehensive small industry surveys since 1970, which also serve the purpose of enabling CNB to formulate its lending policies for the SSI sector. CNB also provides security guarantees on behalf of the Korean Credit Guarantee Fund and makes equity investments in certain cases to strengthen the capital structure of its clients. It provides most of the financial services normally handled by the commercial banks. Policies and Procedures 51. In 1979, CNB supplemented the broad guidelines contained in its Act by adopting a Policy Statement outlining in more specific terms its operating and financial policies and procedures. In addition, CNB has prepared a comprehensive Operational Manual spelling out the operational and administrative procedures related to project appraisal and follow-up, procurement and subsector studies. CNB has built up a unit within the institution which is capable of undertaking adequate project appraisal. It continues to upgrade the quality of its staff involved in long-term lending by intensive training in Korea and abroad. CNB's procurement and disburse- ment procedures are satisfactory, and it is prepared to make further improvements in its procedures as it gains experience in making long-term loans on the basis of project appraisal instead of on the strength of collateral security. CNB's Development Impact 52. CNB has been able to build up a widespread branch network through which it can reach small industries throughout the country. The remarkable success in mobilizing small household savings is a clear indication that CNB has utilized this network effectively. Its resource allocation, although lagging behind its resource mobilization efforts owing partly to stringent - 16 - conditions concerning collateral requirements and partly to recently imposed credit ceilings, has nevertheless expanded considerably in recent years (para. 49). CNB has demonstrated its ability to assist the small-scale industries which were more or less ignored by other financial institutions and has provided financial assistance to very small enterprises. During the period from January 1975 to September 1979, 88% of CNB's equipment loans, both by number and by amount, went to projects employing less than 50 workers, including 71% which went to projects employing less than 20 workers. An analysis of a sample of CNB-financed projects implemented during 1975-79 indi- cates that the average fixed investment cost per job created was around $7,885, which is substantially lower than the average for SMIB ($11,130) and considerably lower than KDFC's ($24,500) and KDB's ($32,000). It is also considerably lower than the investment/job ratio for the economy as a whole which in the corresponding period, 1978, was of the order of $25,000. This is likely to increase with the deepening of the industrial structure requiring more capital intensive projects. The estimated average cost per job created by projects to be financed under the proposed loan may slightly exceed this average because the projects which require foreign exchange financing would in most cases be for modernization, rationalization of equipment, or expansion of productive capacity, which generate limited additional employment. 53. CNB has formulated a Development Strategy for 1980-81 outlining its emphasis on assisting small and export-oriented projects, promoting regional dispersal of its lending, raising long-term resources, strengthening its research capability and intensifying the training of its staff to cope with its expanded operations. As it now has access to foreign currency resources and the SMI Promotion Fund, CNB is expected to play a larger role in providing development finance for the SSI sector. Financial Position and Performance 54. As of September 30, 1979, CNB's total assets stood at W 1,113.4 bil- lion, of which 47% represented the total outstanding loan portfolio. CNB's efforts in mobilizing resources from small savers have been very success- ful. Its loan portfolio, however, does not show the same growth pattern (at end-1975, total loan portfolio accounted for 73% of total assets). Recently, its lending operations have been further affected by the credit ceiling which was imposed by MOF in August 1978 and which is adjusted periodically. CNB has remained very liquid, in terms of short-term domestic resources. As of September 30, 1979, CMB's surplus funds, which are kept as deposits with or call loans to domestic banks, reached W 424.5 billion, equivalent to 81% of its total loan portfolio. The average maturity of these deposits is very short, in most cases, less than one year. In the present circumstances, bearing in mind the volatile nature of the financial environment in which CNB operates, e.g., the Government's attempt to control inflation by restricting credit, it is regarded generally inappropriate to use the sizeable liquid funds deriving from deposits for term lending. However, CNB's management indicated that it would seek ways, in the context of the Government's overall credit policies, to gradually and substantially expand its domestic currency lending operations so as to make fuller use of its existing and prospective deposits, thereby reducing the gap between its resource mobilization and its resource allocation, while at the same time continuing to give due consideration to the nature (generally short-term) - 17 - of the maturities of these deposits. CNB has been operating on a thin equity base; at September 30, 1979, the total debt/equity ratio stood at 40:1 and the long-term debt/equity ratio reached 9:1. As of end-1979, CNB had increased its paid-in share capital from W 5 billion to W 30 billion (W 11.2 billion in the form of cash, the balance of W 13.8 billion being assets revaluation), and with further annual increases in 1981-84, its total debt/equity ratio is expected to decline from 33:1 in 1980 to 28:1 in 1984 and its long-term debt equity ratio from 4.1:1 to 3.5:1 during the same period. These projected ratios are considered satisfactory. A long-term debt/equity of 7:1 has been agreed upon between CNB and ADB which is considered satisfactory. Assurances were obtained during negotiations that CNB will maintain a long-term debt/ equity ratio not exceeding this level (Section 4.06 of the draft Loan Agreement). CNB's current ratio has remained above unity during 1975-79 and CNB has agreed to maintain a current ratio of not less than 1.1:1 in future. CNB has been using part of its short-term resources to finance long-term loans up to five years maturity. This practice, however, is not unsound: given a stable deposit base, with a large number of depositors (over 200,000 deposit accounts) CNB is not vulnerable to wide fluctuations in withdrawals. 55. CNB's gross income has increased rapidly, but this has been matched by an equally rapid growth in expenses; hence, its profitability has remained very low. Net income amounted to W 2.1 billion in 1978 (W 2.3 billion in the first 9 months of 1979), which represents only 0.3% of average total assets. However, due to the low equity base, return on average equity was 20% in 1978 (12% in the first 9 months of 1979). This relatively low profitability does not indicate institutional inefficiency or an inadequate gross interest spread (4.9% in 1978, which was satisfactory). Rather, it is due to CNB's broad nationwide branch network and costly operations involving numerous transactions with individuals, households and small industrial units. 56. The quality of CNB's loan portfolio is unusually good considering that it serves a very large clientele (about 296,000 loan accounts at end-1978), and that it lends to the general populace and small businesses which are generally considered high risk. Total arrears of principal and interest (both for short-and long-term loans) stood at W 4.5 billion at end-1978, which represents only 1.1% of the outstanding loan portfolio; loans affected by arrears accounted for 9.6% of the total loans outstanding. The collection ratio for all loans has been above 98% for the last four years. Business and Financial Prospects 57. The outlook for the Korean economy remains favorable and the long-term growth prospects for the manufacturing sector are good. In this macro-context, CNB has projected its operations for the period 1980-84 on the basis of detailed and reasonable assumptions. Its local currency loan commitments are expected to reach W 510 billion in 1980, to grow at 30% annually and to total W 4,609 billion over the five-year period 1980-84. Its foreign currency loan commitments are estimated to be $15.6 million in - 18 - 1980, $25 million in 1981 and $30 million each year in 1982-84. In the first two or three years during the projection period, achievement of foreign currency operations targets will depend primarily upon CNB's success in building up staff capacity. 58. CNB's financial position is expected to remain sound. Total assets are projected to grow from W 1,453.0 billion in 1980 to W 3,583.8 bil- lion by 1984, with the proportion represented by the outstanding loan portfolio increasing from 51% in 1980 to 61% in 1984. Profitability is expected to improve with net income increasing from W 6.0 billion in 1980 to W 19.6 billion in 1984 (representing 0.4% and 0.6% of average total assets, respectively). Due to the recent increase in CNB's equity capital which took place at end-1979 and further annual capital increases expected to take place during the period 1981-1984, the long-term debt/equity ratio is not expected to exceed 4.1:1 against the limit of 7:1 agreed with the Bank. The total debt/equity ratio is expected to drop from the range of 29-33 in 1978- 80 to 28-30 in 1981-84. Given the stability of the deposits collected from the populace and small business units and the close linkage of deposits and lending under the unique Mutual Installment Savings and Remuneration Scheme undertaken by CNB, the projected debt/equity relationship appears satisfac- tory. The projected current ratio would maintain a satisfactory level of about 1.1:1. Although the quality of CNB's loan portfolio is expected to remain sound, CNB is taking steps to make adequate provision for doubtful loans in view of its future loan operations involving foreign currency and longer maturities. 59. CNB's domestic currency resources will continue to be derived mainly from demand and savings deposits. The institution is also expected to be given access to the SMI Promotion Fund to supplement its long-term resources. Although CNB will have surplus short-term funds, its long-term funds are likely to continue to be insufficient to meet the potential demand. In this case, CNB would have to confine itself largely to making equipment loans of only up to 5 years maturity, except for those loans to be made against funds made available by SMIPC. However, since CNB is entering the foreign currency loan business and many firms are likely to need long-term domestic currency funds in addition to foreign currency funds, the need to finance loans having a maturity of more than 5 years will increase. Further increases in CNB's share capital in 1980-84, in addition to drawings on the SMI Promotion Fund, would give CNB the resources necessary to expand its term lending operations. On the foreign currency side, CNB envisages raising $170 million in borrowings from the Bank, ADB and the Korean Foreign Exchange Fund (KFX) during 1980-84. The proposed Bank loan of $30 million is expected to finance about one-half of CNB's foreign currency approvals over the two-year period from mid-1980 to mid-1982, with the balance to be covered by ADB and KFX. Main Features of the Loan 60. Component for Financing Smaller Enterprises. In order to ensure access of the smallest firms to Bank funds, it has agreed during negotiations that at least 50% of the Bank loan be used by CNB to make subloans to firms - 19 - employing no more than 50 workers or with total assets below W 250 million. In addition, only those enterprises whose total assets do not exceed W 500 million or who have less than 100 employees if in the industrial, mining or transportation fields, or less than 20 employees if in the construction service or other fields, would be eligible for subloans (Section 2.02(a) of the draft Loan Agreement). 61. Maximum Size of Subloans. While the current regulations restrict CNB to making term loans in domestic currency of up to W 30 million, there is no limitation on the size of its foreign currency loans. In order to ensure that the proceeds of the Bank loan are spread out to a substantial number of SSI borrowers, it was agreed during negotiations that the size of individual subloans under the Bank loan should not exceed $400,000 equivalent (Section 2.02(a) of the draft Loan Agreement.) 62. Geographic Distribution of Subloans. To encourage a broader dispersal of the Bank funds outside the metropolitan area, it was agreed during negotiations that no more than 50% of the loan shall be used to finance projects located within the city limits of Seoul. (Section 2.02(a) of the draft Loan Agreement.) 63. Relending Rate. CNB intends to onlend the proceeds of the proposed Bank loan at an interest rate of 2 percentage points above its own borrowing rate (i.e. 10.25% p.a.) with the full foreign exchange risk to be passed on to the subborrowers. This is in line with the general practice of development finance institutions in Korea in relending the proceeds of foreign exchange borrowings from institutional sources. During the initial period, CNB's costs for processing foreign currency loans may exceed the 2% spread; however, CNB expects to cover such losses by its earnings on other operations. The interest rate policy on relending foreign borrowings is kept under constant review by the Government. 64. Other Features, Terms and Conditions of the Loan. In view of the progress made by CNB in improving its project appraisal work, a free limit of $250,000 is recommended. (Section 2.02(b) of the draft Loan Agreement.) There would be no aggregate free limit under the proposed loan. With the proposed limit, it is estimated that roughly one third of the number of subprojects under this loan (accounting for about one half of the loan amount) would require prior approval by the Bank. In order to ensure that the economic viability of projects will be taken into consideration in CNB's decision- making process, CNB will pay more attention to the economic evaluation of projects. During negotiations it was agreed that CNB will calculate the Economic Rate of Return (ERR) for all subloans above the free limit (Section 2.03(a) of the draft Loan Agreement). Apart from direct imports, CNB would be authorized to use the proceeds of the proposed loan for financing the foreign exchange component of domestically procured or manufactured capital goods estimated at 60% of total costs (Section 2.02(a) of the draft Loan Agreement). The other terms and conditions of the loan would be similar to those of recent Bank loans to DFCs, including a flexible amortization schedule conforming substantially to the aggregate of the repayment schedules of subloans. - 20 - Benefits and Risks 65. The continued growth of small-scale industries remains an important element in Korea's development strategy in view of their demonstrated con- tribution to employment creation, expansion of exports, deepening of the industrial structure, and regional dispersal of industry. The shortage of funds, specially of term finance available at appropriate terms, has been a crucial problem faced by the small enterprises. Statistics available show that the ratio of reliance on bank credit decreases as the size of the enterprises becomes smaller and a considerable number of small enterprises have no alternative but to borrow from the curb market, or to postpone their projects. It is estimated that less than half of the demand for funds from the small enterprises in the past has been satisfied. 66. CNB, as the only specialized financial institution catering exclusively to the small industries, is in a position to play a vital role in assisting such firms to meet their financial requirements. In the past, CNB was constrained by the lack of access to foreign exchange resources as well as long-term domestic funds. Having now obtained access both to foreign funds and to the SMI Promotion Fund, CNB is expected to play a larger role in developing and modernizing the small industries in Korea. The Bank has, in the past, been associated with three DFCs in Korea (KDB, KDFC and SMIB). While SMIB has been using the Bank funds to support small- and medium-sized industries, its assistance to the very small ones has been limited and therefore the investment demand of a number of them still remains unsatisfied. CNB, with a branch network which is more extensive than any banking institu- tion in Korea and with a solid clientele built up under the Mutual Installment Savings and Remuneration Scheme, is in a better position to reach the small industries in various regions and help fill their resource gaps, thus enabling these small enterprises to enhance their contribution to the dispersal of industries, expansion of exports and nonfarm employment creation. 67. The proposed Bank loan of $30 million is expected to finance approximately one-half of CNB's projected foreign currency loan approvals over a two-year period from mid-1980 to mid-1982. The proceeds of the loan will be used primarily to finance procurement of machinery and equipment needed for modernization, rationalization, or expansion of productive capacities of the small enterprises in all regions. It is estimated that the subprojects to be financed under the proposed loan, approximately 150 in number, would create about 5,000 new jobs with an average cost per job of about $9,000. One underlying assumption is that approximately 15-20% of the subprojects would require replacement equipment for rationalization or modernization and the number of new jobs to be created in such cases would be very limited. Starting with this operation, the Bank will be continuously involved in upgrading the project appraisal capabilities within CNB, thus helping CNB to successfully carry out its present efforts to become a more effective financial intermediary serving the small-scale enterprises. Given the added function of providing long-term domestic and foreign currency loans, CNB is expected to become more involved in development activities, while maintaining an undiminished role in meeting the short-term financial requirements of the businesses and general populace. - 21 - 68. In sum, the proposed loan will increase the flow of resources to Korean SSIs enabling realization of new, modernization and expansion projects, contribute to greater regional dispersal of investment and achieve worthwhile institution-building objectives by strengthening the capability of CNB to service the needs of the SSI sector in Korea. It will also set in motion the Bank's association with CNB at this particularly opportune time when the Government is launching a concerted effort to further develop the small and medium-sized industries, as evidenced by the establishment of a new institu- tion - SMIPC, and granting of new authority to CNB to engage in foreign currency operations. The project does not entail any unusual risk. PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY 69. The draft Loan Agreement between the Bank and the Citizens National Bank, the draft Guarantee Agreement between the Republic of Korea and the Bank, and the Report of the Committee provided for in Article III, Section 4 (iii) of the Articles of Agreement of the Bank are being distributed to the Executive Directors separately. Special conditions of the loan are listed in Section III of Annex III. 70. I am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank. PART VT - RECOMMENDATION 71. 1 recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan. Robert S. McNamara President Attachments March 20, 1980 -22- Annex I Page 1 of 5 KOREA REPUELIC OF - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AVERACES LAND AREA (ThPOUSAND SQ. KM.) _R RPUSLIC OF - MIOST RECENT ESTIMATE) - TOTAL 98.5 SAME SANE NEXT HICKER AGRICULTURAL 22.6 MOST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOHE INCOtIE 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b REGION Ic GROUP /d CROUP IC GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 120.0 300.0 820.0 450.6 926.1 1748.5 ENERGY CONSUHPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 258.0 815.0 102D.0 371.1 731.7 16614 : POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAR (MILLIONS) 24.7 31.4 36.0 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 27.9 41.2 49.0 27.4 49.0 51.2 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 49.0 . STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 64.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2065 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. K04. 251.0 319.0 365.0 154.8 44.6 28.2 PER SQ. rN. AGRICULTURAL LAND 1154.0 1371.0 1593.0 566.7 140.7 100.5 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 42.9 41.0 37.0 41.3 41.3 35.4 15-64 YRS. 53.8 55.7 60.0 54.9 55.3 56.3 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 3.3 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.5 5.1 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 1.9 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.4 1.7 URBAN 5.9 6.4 5.4 4.3 4.5 3.0 CRUDE BIRT}I RATE (PER THOUSAND) 41.0 30.0 24.0 30.2 31.1 27.5 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 13.0 10.0 8.0 8.3 9.2 9.1 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.1/f 2.6 1.4 2.1 2.2 1.8 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. 672.0 686.0 USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOKEN) .. 42.0 43.9 34.1 34.7 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 80.8 99.0 117.0 106.2 104.4 102.0 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 85.0 114.0 112.0 104.1 105.0 120.8 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 53.0 65.0 75.7 57.4 64.4 80.9 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 13.0/L !9.0 16.3 16.9 23.5 31.3 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 13.0 8.0 5.0 4.8 8.6 5.1 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 54.0 59.0 63.0 61.1 60.2 65.6 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) 62.0 43.0 37.0 46.6 46.7 45.5 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAI. * 58.0 62.0 21.9 60.8 69.4 URBAN .. 84.0 80.0 46.2 75.7 85.1 RURAL *- 38.0 36.0 12.8 40.0 43.0 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL *- 25.0 61.0 28.4 46.0 70.1 URBAN .. 59.0 68.0 65.0 46.0 88.3 RURAL *- *- 50.0 14.7 22.5 33.2 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 3000.0 2110.0 1677.0 3790.5 2262.4 1343.2 'OPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 3220.0/h 2170.0/h 517.0 1107.4 1195.4 765.0 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED IOTAL 2510.0 1900.0 1430.0 613.3 453.4 197.6 URBAN 340.0 203.6 253.1 260.2 RURAL .. .. .. 1110.3 2732.4 1055.0 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. 14.9 .. 23.9 22.1 17.3 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL 5.6 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.3 4.7 URBAN 5.4 5.0 4.9 .. 5.2 4.4 RURAL 5.6 5.5 5.3 .. 5.4 5.1 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PFRSONS PER ROOm TOTAL 2.5 2.3 . 1.9 1.1 URBAN 2.8 2. 7 1.6 1.2 RURAL 2.4 2.2 .. *- 2.5 1.2 ACCF9S TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF llUELLINGS) TOTAL 28.0 49.9 .9 *' 50.0 66.0 UNibAN 67.3 92.4 ... 71.7 85.1 RURAL 12.0 29.9 64.9 . 17.3 Annex I -23- Page 2 of 5 KOREA REPUBLIC OF - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTFD A)ERAGES KRE REFPUBLIC OF - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) SAME SAME NEXT HIGHER MOST RECENT GEOGRAPHIC INCOME INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b REGION /c GROUP /d G(ROUP le EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 94.0 105.0 109.0 97.9 102.5 101.7 MALE 99.0 106.0 109.0 98.7 108.6 110.0 FEMALE 89.0 105.0 109.0 97.4 97.1 92.8 SECONDARY: TOTAL 27.0 43.0 63.0 42.2 33.5 51.2 MALE 38.0 52.0 71.0 46.7 38.4 56.4 FEMALE 14.0 34.0 54.0 40.9 30.7 43.7 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (I OF SECONDARY) 14.0 16.0 16.0 12.5 11.5 18.3 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 58.0 57.0 49.0 32.5 35.8 27.1 SECONDARY 34.0 37.0 38.0 25.8 22.9 25.3 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 70.6 78.0 91.0 84.1 64.0 86.1 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 0.4 2.0 2.7 6.1 13.5 53.4 RADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 32.0 126.0 144.0 84.4 122.7 225.9 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 0.3 13.0 48.0 22.4 38.3 102.6 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 69.0 138.0 173.0 24.2 40.0 78.5 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 4.0 5.0 2.2 3.6 3.7 3.6 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 7500.0 10200.0 13061.0 FEMALE (PERCENT) 25.8 32.7 32.8 36.7 25.0 24.5 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 66.4 51.0 44.6 54.6 43.5 28.9 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 9.3 20.1 33.0 16.3 21.5 30.6 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 33.4 35.0 36.6 40.7 33.5 33.8 MALE 49.5 46.8 48.8 49.9 48.0 51.3 FEMALE 17.2 23.0 24.2 31.0 16.8 16.3 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 15.1/i 17.1 16.1 14.9 20.8 HIGHEST 20 PERCENhT OF HOUSEHOLDS 42.3/i 44.5 45.3 46.8 52.1 57.6 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 5.77T 7.1 5.7 6.2 3.9 3.4 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 19.07 17.7 16.9 16.8 12.6 11.0 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 220.0 193.1 270.0 RURAL .. .. .. 128.7 183.3 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USs PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 194.0 136.8 282.5 550.0 RURAL .. .. .. 96.8 248.9 403.4 ESTIMATED POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOMSE LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 9.0 32.0 20.5 RURAL .. .. .. 52.5 35.3 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The adjusted group averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric means, excluding the extreme values of the indicator and the most populated country in each group. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /b Unless othervise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Most Recent Estimate, between 1974 and 1977. /c East Asia & Pacific; /d Intermediate Middle Income ($551-1135 per capita, 1976); /e Upper Middle Income ($1136-S2500 per capita, 1976); /1f 1950-55; /g 1962; /h Registered, not all practising in the country; /i 1965. May, 1979 Annex I -724- Page 3 of 5 DEFINITIONS OF SOCIAL INDICATORS Egg; The edjueted group averages foc each indicator are population-weighted geometric eons. excluding the extremes values of the Indicator and the meet populated country in each group. Coverage of countri.e among the indicetors depends on aveilability of deta sod is not mnifors. Due to lack of deta, iroup averae for Capital Surplus Oil Exporters and iediostror of access to erster erA.. exrta disposal . housIng. inomee diecributionm d poverty are siaple poepuistion-weigbted geometric scans without che exclusion of extras value.s. tAND AREA (thoneaud sq. be) Poonlatiss par hoeDital bed - total, urban. sod rural - Population (total, Total - Total surface area cuxprising land ar"eansd Island waters. urbas. and rural) divided by their respective eumbex of hospital beds Asr~icultural - Most re.nst estisate of agricultural area used temporarily ~sellable in public and private generai end specialixd hoepital sod re- or pereenastly for crops. paseturee. market end kitchen gardens or to huhilitstios centers. Hospitals era, establishments perexaently staffed by lie fallow. St least one physicias. Etetbllsh&eants provldieg principally custodial cerecare.not.inclu.ded. Rural hospitals, howevr, Include health and medi- CNP PEN CAPITA (IS$) - CNP per capita stcimtes at currest sacker prices, cs centers so ,permoaetly staffed by s physician (but by a nedica1 as- Calculated by sane cooveslsos method as World Bank Atlas (1975-77 basis): sisio. nrse, mIdwif, etc.) hbiob ff.r i-patiest ac-odatiue and 1960, 19y0, and 1977 data. peovid'e'a"limited r'ange ofmedical farilitIes. Ad,siseiseseper hosoital bed - Total nusbar oadaissiess to or dis charges ENIERGYO CONStOfPlcOO PER CAPITA - Ausal o-tI i of coarcial ene rgy from hospitals dlvid.d by tha sumber o fbed.s. (coal sod lignite, petrolsum, natural gas and bydro-, nuclear and geo- therma electricity) in bilogras of coal squivaleot per capita. 90011KG Avecase sire of hounebld 0-ron a housabold) - total, urhan,..ad rural- POPULATION ANS VITAL STATISTICS A household consists of a group of individuels who share living quarters Total Population,, rid-year (millions) - As of July 1; If not available, ard their main eais. A hoarder or lodger map or may not be Included in averageof two end-year estimates; 1960, 1970. and 1977 data, the household for statistical Purposes. Statistical definitions of houase- Urban ponpulation (porcont of total) - Ratio of urban to total popula- hold vary. tion; differe.nt definitions of urban areas say affect coaparability Avetage sumber of Parsons mar cone - total, urban, and rural - Average sum- of deco among countries, her of parsons per rooe in all, urban, and rural occupied convetional Poulation droi duellings, respectively. Dwellings exclude oon-poerwanecsttructuree sod Par so. ho. - Mid-year population per square kilomtrer (100 hecteres) unoccupied parts. 20f toaar. Access to electricIty preto delngs) - rotal. urban. aod rural - Prs. ho. soiculture lend - Computed so above for agricultura1le1ud Conventional e:.1i;ligo with electricity in livIng quarters as perret-tge only, of total. other, and rural dwellings respectively. Pou.lation age structuye (percent) - Children (0-14 years), workIng-age (l5-64 yesrs) , and retired (65 years and over) as Pertentagen of mid- ElilCAlItO. year population. Adouto enrollment -tatoo Population grwtb cuts (percent) - corel., and urban - Coxpound annual Prioury school - total, and fexale - Total sod female enrollment of all ages growth rtaco of total and urban mid-year populations fur 19)0-60. ot rho primacy loya as p .r.o.naurn of reopootivaly primary cohool-aus 1960-70. and 1970-75. populations; normally Includes children aged i-l1 ymrar hut adjusted for Crude birth rote (per thousand) - Annual live births per thousaand of different lengths of primtary education; for countrima with unvra dU- aid-year poyclutirn; ten-year arithmetIc onoagas ending in, 1960 end carton sorll-ot esy auceed 100 peccan.t since sum Pupils are below or 1975 end fieya verage ending in 197) for mast recen.t etimate. above the official school age. Crude death rete (Pet thoueand) - Annual deaths per thousan.d of mid- lecondarny school - total, and fenale - Computed as above; secondary educa- year population; iso-yosr arithxrtic averages ending in 1960 and 1970 tin. requires at least four years of approved primary instruction; pro- and five-year average ending ir 1975 for must recent eatimate. vides general vorutin...l, or teacher trolring instructions for pupils Cross reproduction rare - Average number of daughters a woman will beer usualIly of 12 to 17 years of age; correspondencaencorses are gener ally I.O her normal -ep-ductiv period if she enparie.oe. present age1- enoluded. specific fertility rates; ueually five-year averages ending in 1960, Vocutionual enrollment (percent of secondary) - Vocational inetituti... in- 1970, and 1975. duds. technical, industrial. or other programo which Operate independently Fcilly planningt - acceptors, annuAl (thnue..ods) - Annua num-ber uf pa as departments of necondary inetitutionos. acceptors of birth-control devIces under auspices of national fanily fuoll-teecher retdo - primary, and aecondory - Total students erla ix planning prOgran.. peimony end secondary levels divided by numbers of teachers in the carte- Fanily plennino - users (percent of n-cried wom en) - Percentage of sponding levols. married wunee of child-bearing ago (15-44 yours) who use birth-control Adult litersoy cut (p.rcount) - Litecatoodulte (able to read end unito) devices to all married women in sane- age group, a percentage of total adult population eged 15 years -and over. FOOD ANl NUTIoTION CONSCItTZON Index of food producinprcaia(9 100) - Index nuxber of per Pas..c-ger car (per thousand populatcion) - Passenger oars comprise sotor oars capita annualI production of all food comoodities. seoting loss than eight Persona; axrludes anhulace, hearsres and milItary Per canito sapply of culuries (percent of requirements) - Computed from vehicles. energy equivalent of net food soyplies avatleble in country per capita Rodic receivers (perrt .bronadpouain - All types of receivers for radio per day. Available supplies ccoyrise d.ometic production, imports less broedoants to general1 public per thousand of popuietios; exciudes unlicemeed exports, and chuoges in stock. Net supplies exclude aaiami feed, seeds, - receivers in countries aud it years whrn registration. of radio sets wa in quan.tities used in food processing, and lones. In distribution. Re- effect; data fur recant years ray not be comparable since mont countrIes quiresente note estirated by PAl hone.d on physiological need. for our- oholished lice...int. sa1 activity and health considering environo-etal temperature, body TV receivers (per tbounund potulotion) - TV receivers for broadcast to gnrtl weights, ego aud nec diotrlbutloos of population, and alloting 11 per- public per thr...and Population; excludes unlicensed TIV receivers to coup- coot for wast.eat hous.ebold level, tries and In years oh.. rogintration of TV nets was in effect. Fec capita suocly of prri (sans. Per dy Protein content of per Newspapeccrrain(orbuudpplto)- Shows the average circu1a- capite cot aupyly of fun per day. N, supply at food Is deflced atiu of "daily f-rontl interest newopaper", defined asaperiodical yubll- obeys. iequirenontn foc all c-untrias esnobliahod by UJSDA provide for outiun devoted priniaily to ro..ording fo-rulnes It Is considered to a inlmon allowance of 60 grams of total protein per day and 20 grana ha "doily" if it appears at leas.t four timex a ei of aunal and pulse protin, i which 11 grees should bn anixal protoin. Cin-u. ..onuaI attnodxuepcspn c -or- ...d or the ourhor of niokata These standards are lowe.r than those of 75 graxa of total protoin and sold durinc the year, including adnissions to drive-in, cinems end nubile 213grams of animal protein as so average for the socld, propu..ed by units. FAG In the Third iorld Food Sur-y. fo r capita Pro too supply (con a,niml and pulse - Protein supply of food tPiI1iUfEN'T derived from nnclosd p1s.o in. gr..s per day. Totol labor forc (thou-nods) - iconnnicxlly active persns, including .armd Child jsaen 1-4) motliyrte_(per thousand) - Annuo1 deurho ypr thaus- forces end ur-ployed hut encluding bouuewve.S students, etc. Sefint- and in age group 1-4 yearn. to children in this age group. titoa to vari..uu.. outnirn are nut conpurablo. HEALTli ...-~~~~~~~~~~~~~FeC (percent) - F.Inal labur force an porceotuge of total labor force graIN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~AgricIultro (pe-orvt) - Labor force in farming, forestry, hunting and fishinug Life onPotrcahlr(yrn - Average nunber of yoors fr life as percentage of ototl labor force. re-alnig at iintld usually fleya averagS. ending Ic 1904, 1970, Industry(ccon - Labor force in doing., co-t-rutirn, nauatulisd ard 1975. electricity, cuter and gun so percentage of total labor forte. Infar noraliu rat (pm housod) NuAa.l deoubs of infr.nra. cder r'r:cononnt Cr--ot) - otntl, mae n female - ntel, male, end coo your of so Pun thousad Ine hIrhts. !eal labor F.,r- us yr-c-tcge- of their r-p-oti-e populatiuco- Access to- sufo ~watr rcent of opltn)-oa,urn,ndrural - Thuo are ILO's adjusted partirtpation crets reflecting .fe-seo icubur of people (orel, urban, and crol.) with ros bruh 0 .acus to --ruuc of rho poplation, and 1-cy vice r-nd. safe outer upply (iocludes treated ourface wateos or untreotni hut fooc-ic depardoocy ratio - Ratio of poyulation under S end 65 and o'er to urco..astoarotd outer nuob an that fr.. protected boreohles, nyring., tar labor fcr- in age group of l5-64 yeas. and sa.ritacy cells) as percentaaeo of their resPective Populatuons. In an urban area a Public fountain, or etandpoer locarad nort none INCOME DISTRtPETII!i than l0o.t neer fro. a hoone ray be cons.idered as being within roe- Pcetteo rvooicn (both in, curb and rind) received by richent 5 sonabe accse of than house. In rural areas reasona.ble ecces l percent, richest 20 porcent, pooneet 20 percent, and poorest 40 percent impip that the housewife or nenbero of the household do nut have to of house.holds. spend a dluyrporpttonla..t part of the day in fetching rho family's water coed. POVFNTY TARilT GRUPFS If-su toAVSf.rA4)upusld percnt ofoplain ttl rbn n Ltur-trd abooluteppvryicm evl(0 apt)-ubnand rural- rura.l - Number at people (natal, urbun, and rural) servd by e-crtet Abnulute povorty incom level ie thenr i...m. leve below dudai ucmh diap-uai an Por-ntage of their rosproti-e populutiont. Encreta -.tritioa.liy adequate diet plus uona rn.-food requiremen.ts is not dtupu...l1 ay luclude the collection std diupo..al, with or without ftordubls. trcorncnc, of huma- ncrete -u4aat-ao by water-borne systes toctr _ted relativepvryicn ee IOpe aiaj ro n ua ur di -s of pit privies end oinilar iuaann. Relutive poveon ino los ota income level leee thanou-hr ttZ'Bd!'t~ ~yrr ihlyjp.n - Popa.tlrion divided by number of prsctiuing pen us.Pine prooolioeocto onty ph-vollar- qualified fr-s a aecic-I oo at unin....ity level . fEtinated popultto Ibelow poety accc- lee pret ra nd rural- Populaton p., oc.runhlpecan - foulatio divido by ruher ofPe-ont of pupolarios (urban and rural) who ore either a.bsolute p,r' Or prrncngnb c fexale aroi.cur nra-uo. pranticelnrss and "toletine poor whiohev-c Lu graste.r Econoi,c Sod SonI Data DIvision ton oAnsI yiu ed Projeo-torn iep-r-net -25- ANNEX I Page 4 of 5 ECONOMIC DEVELOPtENT DATA SHEET Actual /e Prolected Growtth rates (05 1965 1970 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1965-75 1978 1978-80 A. National Acc.unts (Million US0 at 1975 prices) 1. GDP 6,939.3 11,760.4 13,852.7 16,127.4 17,542.2 19,089.2 21,947.9 25,769.0 28,688.0 31,324.D 33,938.0 10.7 11.3 8.7. 2. Gains from TOT 140.4 665.3 1,122.9 1,486.4 348.7 _ 1,160.5 1,511.0 1,685.0 1,350.0 1,337.0 - - - 3. Gross domestic income 7,079.7 12,425.7 14,975.6 17,613.7 17,890.9 19,089.2 Z3,108.4 27,280.0 30,373.0 32,674.0 35,275.0 10.4 11.3 7.7 4. I,morts (goods and NFS) 984.3 4,228.6 5,273.4 7,154.3 7,373.4 7,464.0 9,680.0 11,723.0 15,138.0 16,077.0 16,636.0 22.5 29.1 4.9 5. Exports volume 388.3 1,843.8 3,111.5 5,001.9 4,887.9 5,678.6 8,129.6 10,210.0 11,994.0 12,294.0 12,827.0 30.7 17.5 3.4 6. Exports (adjusted for TOT) 528.7 2,509.1 4,234.3 6,488.3 5,236.6 5,678.6 9,290.1 11,721.0 13,978.0 13,644.0 14,164.0 26.1 19.2 0.6 7. Resource gap (adjusted for TOT) 455.6 1,719.5 1,039.0 666.0 2,136.8 1,785.4 389.9 2.0 1,160.0 2,433.0 2,472.0 - - - 8. Total consmptLion 6,873.1 10,771.0 12,686.9 13,617.4 14,525.2 15,381.1 16,538.4 19,187.0 21,299.0 23,006.0 24,616.0 8.3 11.0 7.5 9. Investment 917.1 3,276.1 3,105.5 4,275.9 5,070.2 5,120.6 5,874.4 7,975.0 10,841.0 11,900.0 12,852.0 18.8 35.9 8.8 10. Dormstic savings (adjasted for TOT) 206.6 1,654.8 2,288.7 3,996.3 3,365.7 3,708.1 6,569.9 8,093.0 9,373.0 9,668.0 10,659.0 33.6 15.8 7.4 11. GDP at current US1 2,996.5 8,303.4 9,835.8 12,393.1 16,780.1 19,089.2 25,369.5 35,375.0 47,582.0 60,488.0 72,633.0 20.7 34.5 23.9 B. Sector Output (Share of GDP at 1975 prices) 1. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 46.3 32.8 29.3 26.1 25.3 24.9 23.6 22.2 19.1 19.6 19.1 - - - 2. Mining and manufacturing 13.9 20.5 23.4 26.2 28.2 29.2 31.8 30.6 32.9 31.9 32.0 - - - 3. Other 39.8 46.7 47.4 47.8 46.5 45.9 44.5 47.2 48.0 48.5 48.9 - - - C. Prices (1975-100) 1. Export price index /a 57.7 67.4 67.3 85.2 107.9 100.0 111.7 120.7 132.9 154.6 167.7 - - 2. Import price index /a 46.3 46.2 46.8 62.5 97.2 100.0 98.0 105.2 114.0 138.8 151.9 - - - 3. Terms of trade index 124.6 145.9 143.8 136.3 111.0 100.0 114.0 114.8 116.5 111.0 110.4 - - - 4. COP deflator 43.2 70.6 71.0 76.8 95.7 100.0 115.6 137.3 165.9 193.1 214.0 - - - 5. Average exchange rate 266.2 310.4 394.0 -398.5 406.0 484.0 484.0 484.0 484.0 484.0 484.0 - - - D. Seleted Indicators 1965-75 1977-80 E. Actual 1. ICOR 2.39 3.75 1960 1970 1975 1977 1978 2. Ixport elasticity 2.10 1.08 1. Labor force (million) 8.9 10.2 12.3 13.4 13.9 3. Average domestic 2. Uneoployment (% of E.1) 7.9 4.9 4.1 3.8 3.2 saving. rate 0.15 0.31 3. Efployment (million) 8.2 9.7 11.8 12.9 13.5 4. Marginal domestic (7 shares) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 savings rate 0.29 0.25 3.1 Agriculture, forestry, 5. Imports/GOP 0.36 0.49 fisheries 58.6 50.5 45.9 41.8 38.4 h. lnvestment/GDP 0.25 0.36 3.2 Mining and manufacturing 10.4 14.3 19.1 22.4 28.5 7. Resource gap/GDY 0.11 0.05 3.3 Other 31.0 35.2 35.0 35.8 33.1 F. Public Finance /b 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977/d (1 of GDP) 1. Current revenue 17.8 16.9 18.3 20.3 22.9 22.7 1.1 Tax revenue 13.5 13.2 15.0 16.8 18.9 18.9 2. Current expenditure 14.2 11.6 12.4 14.4 14.3 15.7 2.1 Defense expenditures 4.5 3.7 4.4 4.8 5.7 6.3 3. Governinent saving 3.5 5.3 5.0 5.8 8.5 7.0 4. Capital expendltoro /c 11.3 8.7 8.0 8.3 12.7 10.5 /a D,ta for 1965-76 refer to merchandtie trade only, 1977-80 data InclWde merchan,dise and non.. ator services. /b Rfe.rs to th. Covtrh renn o Sector. cor epr-siiig Central Govern,.nt (includ-ng governm-nt -ntorpises-) , Loc.l Covernmenr and Special Accounts. /c Rifers to tltal c,npLtlI expendttures, Iess repayment of debts. Id dsdget estlroten. le Date for 1977 and 197Y arc based on revIsed National Accounts (BOI, A.gust 1979); detAli of the rovtoed historical .eries for 1965-76 -cre e.r vavll.ble at tILs tt In. November 29, 1979 -26- ANNEX I Pag. S oc 5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND EXTIKNAL ASStSTANCE (S million at current prices) Actual Pro1-cted 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 A. S.seary of Balance of Psyments 1. Imports (ic-. NFS1 998 1,221 1,478 2,075 3,962 5,125 5,679 9,111, 12,328 15,940 18.942 21,512 2. leporta (lel. NFS) 1,880 2,064 2,490 2,577 4,368 7,209 7,464 9,493 12,3Z9 17,264 22,321 25,267 3. Resource balance -882 -843 -1.012 -502 -406 -2,084 -1,785 -382 -1 -1,324 -3,379 -3.755 4. Net factor servlio income (1) Net interest paymenta 2 -29 -91 -138 -166 -229 . 399 -411 -479 -702 -790 -997 of chich interest no public IfLT loans -47 -68 -89 -120 -150 -201 -290 -345 -437 -653 -1,065 -1,374 (2) DIrect te-estnent income -6 -8 - -2 1 -8 -5 -37 -63 -80 -65 -46 (3) Workers' reltt-nces (nut) /a - - - - - - - - - - - (4) Other factor aervice income (net) 91 77 84 101 72 74 76 167 332 549 787 916 5. Current transfers (net) 246 180 171 170 190 224 226 349 223 472 500 600 . Balance on current account -549 -623 -848 -371 -309 -2,023 -1,887 -314 12 -1.085 -2,947 -3,282 7. Private direct Investment 16 65 43 74 137 104 53 76 104 101 110 125 8. Official copatal grants 150 131 84 87 61 64 - - - - - - Public M 4 LT loas 9. Sisbscn-nentn 660 414 625 735 757 1,155 1,687 1,701 2,212 3,919 4,965 5.275 10. Amnrti-ation 109 205 215 289 334 391 368 494 720 1.142 1,500 1,700 11. Net otunursenenno 551 209 410 446 423 764 1,319 1,207 1,492 2,777 3,465 3,575 Other 1 4 LT Loans 12. Disbor.ese.nc 17 78 33 49 71 174 85 115 46 - - - 13. A.ortlzation 3 8 10 tO 15 23 28 105 71 97 75 72 14. Net dishbrne.ennt 14 70 23 39 56 151 57 10 -25 -97 -75 -72 15. Une of IMF rco..orcen fb - -10 -8 -10 - 132 130 97 -25 -2 - - 16. Short-term capitol trasnacrtons 57 122 135 -19 82 -45 680 357 21 -1,171 400 500 17. Capitol transo.tions NEI /c -78 71 112 -87 -110 868 .141 -14 -233 108 70 154 18. Change lo renerven (- - inCrease) /d -161 -35 49 -159 -340 -15 -493 -1,419 -1,346 -631 -1,023 -1,000 19. Foreign exchange reserves /e (end of perld) 549 584 535 694 1,034 1,049 1,542 2,961 4,307 4,938 5,961 6,961 B. Grant 0nd Loon Co.-it..nts 1. OffIcIal grant 150 131 84 87 61 64 - - - - 2. Total poblic M 4 LT loans 753 475 689 813 1,073 1,972 1,304 3,613 3,304 5,014 (1) 18RD 65 40 85 73 150 85 382.5 372 335 659 (2) IDA 15 15 7 26 20 - - - - - (3) Other e-nltillesra1 if 25 20 81 68 46 89 101.5 114 135 50 (4) Governments /a 102 161 255 479 383 477 360 917 406 1.190 Of shch cnntrally planned economics - - - - - - - - - - (5) Suppliers 374 134 248 94 223 486 232 689 1,144 1,027 (6) Ftlanclal lnstitstlon. 144 104 13 73 240 737 193 1,448 1,216 1,966 (7) Bonds - - - - - 19 - 60 68 122 (8) Public loans NEI /hf 28 1 - - 11 79 34 - - - 3. Other M 6 LT loans / 100 26 67 74 213 120 138 97 16 - Debt and Debt Service- FTblLn debt outstanding 6 dibursed (end nf period) 2,691 3,199 3,982 1,277 6,659 8,472 l,992 Interest on public debt 120 150 201 290 389 437 653 Repayments on poblin sebt 289 334 391 368 504 717 1,142 Total publin debt servine 409 484 592 658 893 1,154 1,795 Other debt service (net) 23 33 54 60 103 125 140 Total debt secitce (met) 432 517 646 718 996 1,279 1,935 Borden un Epurt Elroinas (Z) Public debt servIce 19.7 12.2 11.6 11.6 9.8 9.2 11.3 Total debt ne-vice 20.8 13.1 12.6 12.6 10.9 10.2 12.1 TDS + Direct Invest. Inc. 20.7 13.1 12.4 12.6 11.3 10.7 12.6 Average Ternn on Public Dent Interest as 2 prior year DO&D 5.3 5.6 6.3 7.6 8.2 7.3 7.7 Amortieation as 2 prior year DO6D 12.9 12.4 12.2 9.2 10.9 11.9 13.5 I8RD debt ostsroeolng 6 dtnbursed 94.7 139.8 223.8 403.5 659.0 835.1 1,123.2 IB8D as 2 poblic debt 01D 3.5 4.4 5.6 7.7 9.9 9.9 9.4 IBRD as 2 public debt service 1.7 2.5 3.3 4.9 5.7 6.7 6.4 IDA debt onlotantdig 6 dibnuerod 47.1 58.5 78.3 92.7 102.4 111.1 114.4 IDA as 2 public debt 06D 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.0 IDA an 2 publIc debt servIce O.l 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 EIternal Debt (Dinburned Only) Ottnnanidig December 31. 1978 Amount 7. 1. IBRD 1,123.2 9.4 2. Bank Group /1 1,237.5 10.3 3. Other mslttlstenal 400.9 3.3 4. Government 3,353.9 28.0 Of vsdAh centrally planed enoits - - 5. Soppliers 3,711.5 31.0 6. Fi-nncial in-ttuttons 3,021.4 25.2 7. Bonds 266.2 2.2 8. Other pblIlc debt n.e..- - 9. Total pabi debt 11,991.6 100.0 10. Other MLT debt 461.2 11. Total publin and other MLT debt (disbursed) 12,452.8 12. Total pablie and other MLT debt (fncl. ssdtsborsed) 19,080.7 C. Menuraudvlo Itens 1. Grant element of totaL1 comitments 25.2 25.8 30.5 37.2 25.2 27.7 10.6 11.1 8.0 7.4 2. Average Interest (2) 5.1 5.1 5.2 4.8 6.1 8.0 7.9 8.0 8.2 8.8 3. Average matoeity (yeaes) 14.1 17.9 19.0 23.6 18.3 11.6 13.0 13.0 11.4 14.4 Inclu-ded I ocher fotcor seervins i-ooe. /b Net of "orawlngs" and "repayment by purchase" (IFS). /c Includ-s borroiIngv by the booktng system. /d E-cluocn set us- of IMF resoocc-s shich are ahoen separately. /e "Intornotonal Ren-eves" (IFS). /f ADd. L, Includs bilateral ODA, lalsb-kn, afficial esport rendits, inclodLog DS CCC Credits. ft Other guaranteed privace loans. /t E1clod-t IFC. Novcsb-r 29, 1979 ANNEX II -27- Page 1 of 14 pages KOREA THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA A. Statement of Bank Loans and IDA Credits (as of December 31. 1979) Loan or Amount ($ million) Credit Calendar (less cancellations) Number Year Borrower Purpose Bank TW IDA Undisbursed Sixteen Loans and eight credits fully disbursed 678.2 106.8 906 1973 Republic of Korea Education II 23.0 1.8 917 1973 Republic of Korea Ports I 80.0 1.5 953 1974 Republic of Korea Tourism 25.0 0.5 994 1974 AFDC Agriculture 13.0 0.5 1070 1975 Republic of Korea Secondary Cities-Gwangju 15.0 3.2 1096 1975 Republic of Korea Education III 22.5 5.1 1101 1975 Republic of Korea Railways V 100.0 2.8 1193 1976 Republic of Korea Second Integrated Dairy Dev. 15.0 0.4 1203 1976 Republic of Korea Highways III 90.0 2.5 1216 & 1976 Republic of Korea Rural Infrastructure 1 20.0 0.1 1218-T 40.0 0.1 1319 1976 ADC Irrigation 29.0 25.3 1328 1976 Republic of Korea Agricultural Credit 20.0 0.4 1338 1976 KDB II Dev. Finance Co. 82.5 3.1 1364 1977 ADC Irrigation 95.0 74.3 1401 1977 Republic of Korea Ports II 67.0 62.5 1461 1977 KDFC VI Dev. Finance Co. 70.0 2.6 1466 1977 Republic of Korea Heavy Machinery 80.0 24.6 1474 1977 Republic of Korea Vocational Training 23.0 16.2 1503 1978 ADC - Ogseo Stage I Agriculture/Irrigation 36.0 35.9 1507 1978 SMIB II Dev. Finance Co. 55.0 2.2 1530 1978 Republic of Korea Rural Infrastructue II 95.0 61.7 1542 1978 Republic of Korea Railway VI 120.0 44.5 1574 1978 KDB III Dev. Finance Co. 110.0 53.6 1635 1978 KDFC VII Dev. Finance Co. 100.0 41.4 1640 1978 Republic of Korea Highways IV 143.0 139.4 1666 1979 Republic of Korea Chungju Multipurpose 125.0 120.0 1676 1979 Republic of Korea Electronics Technology 29.0 28.9 1749 1979 SMIB III Dev. Finance Co. 60.0 59.2 1758 /a 1979 Second Gwangju Regional Cities 65.0 65.0 1774 /a 1979 Republic of Korea Population I 30.0 30.0 1788 /a 1979 Korea Electric Co. Power Project 115.0 115.0 Total 2,631.2 40.0 106.8 1,024.3 of which has been repaid 112.8 - 1.6 Total now outstanding 2,518.4 40.0 105.2 Amount sold 8.8 of which has been repaid 3.9 4.9 - - Total now held by Bank and IDA (prior to exchange adjustment) 2.513.5 40.0 105.3 Total undisbursed 1.024.2 0.1 1.024.3 /a Not yet effective. ANNEK II -28- Page 2 of 14 pages B. Statement of IFC Investments (as of December 31, 1979) Fiscal Amount ($ million) Year Obligor Types of Business Loan Equity Total 1968 KDFC Development Financing - 0.7 0.7 1969 Honam Silk Co. Textiles 1.4 0.3 1.7 1970 Atlas Paper Pulp and paper 4.5 0.5 5.0/a 1971 Korea Investnent Finance Crop. Capital Market Development - 0.6 D.6 1974 KDFC Development Financing - 0.4 0.4 1974 Korea Investment Finance Crop. Capital Market Development - 0.3 0.3 1975 Gold Star & Co., Ltd. Electronic Products 16.0 1.3 17.3 1975 Korea Securities Fincance Crop. Capital Market Development 5.0 0.6 5.6 1975 Tong Yang Nylon Company, Ltd. Synthetic Fibers 6.9 2.1 9.0 1975 Hae Un Dae Develop- ment Company, Ltd. Tourism 2.8 0.7 3.5 1976 Korea Investment Finance Crop. Capital Market Development - 0.4 0.4 1976 Chungju Paper Mfg. Co. Paper 5.0 0.5 5.5 1976 Korea Zinc. Co., Ltd. Zinc 15.0 4.0 19.0 1976 KDFC Development Financing 17.8 - 17.8 1976 Gold Star & Co., Ltd. Electronic Products 10.0 0.4 10.4 1977 Gold Star & Co., Ltd. Electronic Products 0.2 0.2 1977 KDFC Development Financing 0.3 0.3 1977 Korea Securities Finance Crop. Capital Market - 0.5 0.5 1977 Korea Development Leasing Crop. Capital Market 15.0 0.4 15.4 1978 KDFC Development Financing - 1.1 1.1 1979 Gold Star & Co., Ltd. Electronic Products - 1.7 1.7 1979 KIFC Capital Market - 0.6 0.6 1979 Korea Development Leasing Crop. - 0.2 0.2 1979 Gold Star & Co., Ltd. Electronic Products - 1.5 1.5 1980 Gold Star & Co., Ltd. Electronic Products - 1.8 1.8 1980 Korea Investment Finance Corp. Capital Market - 0.6 0.6 Total gross commitment 99.4 21.7 121.1 less cancelations, terminations, repayment and sales 50.7 2.3 53.0 Total commitments now held by IFC 48.7 19.4 68.1 TOTAL undisbursed la Cancelled at the request of the Company. ANNEX II -29- Page 3 of 14 pages PROJECTS IN EXECUTION /1 Agricultural Sector Loan No. 994 Integrated Agricultural Products Processing Project; $13.0 Million Loan of June 7, 1974; Effective Date: March 19, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 This project provides long-term funds to the Agriculture and Fisheries Development Corporation (AFDC) for onlending to subborrowers in the private sector for the purpose of integrating on-farm production of fruits and vegetables with modern, hygienic processing facilities, using land that was idle or underutilized. The vegetables and fruits involved are mainly asparagus, shiitake (oak mushroom), spinach, mushroom, strawberry and peach. Implementation of the project was delayed by about 18 months owing to lack of loan demand for some of the processing facilities included in the project. However, the project is now progressing satisfactorily since September 1977 when the Bank approved AFDC's proposal to widen the project's scope to meet changed investor demand. Under the revised scope, AFDC will finance processing and cold storage of fish, meat, fruits and vegetables, and also fruit juice extraction and concentration and vegetable drying, for which the loan demand is strong. Subloan applications and approvals have increased significantly, and AFDC expects to disburse all the project funds before the Closing Date. Disbursements as of December 31, 1979 were over 96% of the loan. Loan No. 1193 Second Integrated Dairy Development Project: $15.0 Million Loan of June 4, 1976; Effective Date: November 11, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 The project consists of further development of 400 existing dairy farms which participated in the first project; the development of 450 new dairy farms; expansion of existing dairy processing facilities, construction of a new processing plant; and technical assistance for both farm development and processing. The effective date was delayed for nearly a year but the implementation has progressed rapidly and the project may be completed ahead of schedule. The project will benefit 41% more farmers and supply 8% more cows than was originally estimated. Technical support to the farmers has been strengthened but more has to be done to improve pasture quality and establish a feed regime which would ensure the development of a /1 These notes are designed to inform the Executive Directors regarding the progress of projects in execution, and in particular to report any problems which are being encountered, and the action being taken to remedy them. They should be read in this sense, and with the under- standing that they do not purport to present a balanced evaluation of strengths and weaknesses in project execution. ANNEX II -30- Page 4 of 14 pages low-cost dairy industry in Korea. The expansion of processing facilities is progressing steadily and it is anticipated that the actual capacity then will be significantly above the original estimate. KDBC's financial condition improved during the last two years. The general prospects are for a gradually improving trend. As of December 31, 1979, disbursements were over 97% of the loan amount. Loan No. 1216 Rural Infrastructure Project; $60.0 Million of which Loan No. 1218T $40.0 Million Third Window of March 19, 1976; Effective Date: June 4, 1976; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 Project implementation is proceeding very well. The Fuelwood, Roads and Bridges, Water Supply and Rural Electrification components were completed by the end of 1977. Minor Irrigation and Upland reclamation will be completed by the Closing Date. Project monitoring and reporting continue to be satisfactory, the Hydrologic Services Study has been completed and the evaluation study is already producing useful results. As of December 31, 1979, the total loan amount was about completely disbursed. Loan No. 1319 Miho Watershed Area Development Project; $29.0 Million Loan of August 5, 1976; Effective Date: October 21, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 This project, located in the central region of Korea, is being financed under the first Bank loan for area development in Korea. A project office has been established, and construction work is progressing on the first of five major civil works contracts. A second contract was awarded in July 1979. Altogether, the five contracts will involve construction of 8 large and 19 small dams, 284 km of main and secondary canals and land development for irrigating 12,700 ha. The project, which will require five years to complete, also involves construction of 80 km of river channel improvement and 150 km of village access roads, as well as feasibility studies for a second stage project in the Miho Watershed. The project is currently two years behind schedule due to major shortfalls in local budget allocations. As of December 31, 1979, disbursements were about 13% of the loan amount. Loan No. 1328 Second Agricultural Credit Project: $20.0 Million Loan of October 12, 1976; Effective Date: March 10, 1977; Closing Date: June 30. 1981 The project is a continuation and expansion of the agricultural program financed under the First Agricultural Credit Project (Credit 335-KO). It provides funds to the National Agricultural Cooperative Federation (NACF) for medium- and long-term loans to farmers, through selected Gun (county) cooperatives of NACF, for investments in apple orchard development, silkworm rearing houses, sprinkler irrigation for orchards, greenhouses for vegetable production, and on-farm fruit storage. The loan became effective on March 10, 1977 and lending to subborrowers commenced in the following month. Project implementation continues to progress ANNEX II -31- Page 5 of 14 pages satisfactorily and total lending is on schedule. As of December 31, 1979, disbursements were 98% of the loan amount. Loan No. 1364 Yong San Gang Irrigation Project Stage II; $95.0 Million Loan of February 11, 1977; Effective Date: April 22, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1984 The project will provide irrigation and land development on 20,700 ha in the lower reaches of the Yong San River. Project works include an estuary dam, sea dike, pumping stations, irrigation canals, reclamation of 5,500 ha of tidal lands, conversion of 3,250 ha of uplands for irrigation of paddy, land consolidation of 3,200 ha, and irrigation of 1,050 ha of up- lands. Construction of the access roads and a portion of the estuary dam has been completed. The main contract for estuary dam construction was awarded in December 1977, in line with the appraisal schedule and construction is progressing well; however, the irrigation subprojects are behind schedule due to shortfalls in local budget allocation. As of December 31, 1979 disbursements were about 22% of the loan amount. Loan No. 1503 Ogseo Area Development project - Stage I; $36.0 Million Loan of January 4. 1978; Effective Date: March 29, 1978; Closing Date: June 30, 1983 The project will benefit some 23,000 farm families by providing new irrigation on 7,100 ha, improved irrigation and drainage on 3,700 ha and a more assured water supply on an additional 1,500 ha. Project work consists of nine pumping stations, 190 km of main and secondary canals and land development including 5,800 ha of land consolidation, 2,500 ha of improved drainage (of which 1,500 ha would also be consolidated), 2,200 ha of tertiary irrigation and conversion of 1,800 ha of upland and forest to paddy land. Construction will be carried out under seven civil works contracts and three were awarded, about 12 months behind schedule due to shortfalls in local budget allocations. Loan No. 1530 Rural Infrastructure Project II; $95.0 Million Loan of March 13, 1978; Effective Date: June 8, 1978; Closing Date: June 30, 1983 The project includes about 43 minor irrigation, 8,300 river training and 7,400 water supply subprojects as well as a rural telephone program. The 1978 program for river training, water supply and rural ANNEX II -32- Page 6 of 14 pages telephones was completed on schedule and the 1979 program progressed well. Design work on the minor irrigation component is proceeding satisfactorily and contracts have been awarded for 16 subprojects. The total area of the irrigation subprojects has been finalized at 9,235 ha. As of December 31, 1979, disbursements were over 35% of the loan amount. Loan No. 1666 Chungju Multipurpose Project; $125.0 Milion Loan of March 29. 1979; Effective Date: July 11, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1985 The project would help meet the growing demand for municipal, industrial and irrigating water in the Han Basin for about 20 years following its completion in 1984, and would substantially reduce flood damage, generate an average of 770 million kilowatt hours annually and provide 460 MW of peaking capacity for Korea's power system. The principal features of the project are a 90 m high concrete dam across the South Han River, a power plant containing four 115 MW generating units, and associated transmission facilities; a reregulating dam about 20 km downstream of the main dam; relocation of about 100 km of roads and 10 km of railway, protective works in the reservoir area including the raising of an existing embankment of a cement plant and other miscellaneous works; implementation of a resettlement program for some 9,300 families affected by the project; and consulting services. Industrial Sector Loan No. 1338 Second Korea Development Bank Project; $82.5 Million Loan, of which $7.5 Million for the Korea Industrial Leasing Company, of December 23, 1976; Effective Date: March 21, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 The project provides $75.0 million to be used by KDB to make sub- loans to finance direct imports for industrial subprojects during the period 1977-78; the remainder of the loan, $7.5 million, was relent by KDB to its wholly-owned subsidiary, the Korea Industrial Leasing Corporation (KILC). to acquire machinery, equipment, facilities and other property to be leased to investment enterprises. Commitment of funds is progressing as expected; as of December 31, 1979, disbursements were over 96% of the total loan amount. Loan No. 1461 Sixth Korea Development Finance Corporation Project; $70.0 Million Loan of June 30, 1977; Effective Date: September 15, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 The loan was made to help cover the foreign exchange requirements of industrial subprojects to be financed by KDFC subloans in 1977-78. KDFC's performance has been very satisafctory. As of December 31, 1979, disbursements were over 96% of the total loan amount. ANNEX II -33- Page 7 of 14 pages Loan No. 1466 Heavy Machinery Project; $80.0 Million Loan of June 30, 1977; Effective Date: December 1, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1980 Project cost has increased to $396 million as compared with the appraisal estimate of $255 million. This is due to increases in scope to enhance the project's ability to manufacture nuclear power plant; the devaluation of the US dollar, and domestic inflation. The market prospects for the project have been affected by licensing of other power plant manufacturers in Korea. In order to deal with this problem and to strengthen the financial viability of the project, the Government intends to transfer responsibility for the project to another company. Details of the transfer are being worked out between the parties involved and will be submitted to the Bank for review. As of December 31, 1979, disbursements were nearly 70% of the loan amount. Loan No. 1507 Second Medium Industry Bank Project; $55.0 Million Loan of January 4, 1978: Effective Date: March 10. 1978; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 The project provides $55.0 million to be used by MIB to help cover the foreign exchange requirements of industrial subprojects. A portion of the loan - $20.0 million - was earmarked to assist small-scale, labor- intensive subprojects creating employment at a gross capital cost per job not greater than $6,000 or enterprises whose fixed assets are not greater than $250,000. As of December 31, 1979, disbursements were 96% of the loan amount. Loan No. 1574 Third Korea Development Bank Project; $110 Million Loan of June 21, 1978; Effective Date: September 14, 1978; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 The loan would be used to help cover the foreign exchange require- ments of subprojects to be financed by KDB; apart from direct imports, the loan would be utilized by KDB to finance the foreign exchange component of domestically produced capital goods. An amount of up to $10.0 million of the proceeds of the proposed loan would be made available to KDB's subsidiary, the Korea Industrial Leasing Corporation Ltd. (KILC), by way of subloans in order to finance small- and medium-sized leasing projects. Overall progress is satisfactory. As of December 31, 1979, disbursements were over 51% of the loan amount. Loan No. 1635 Seventh Korea Development Finance Corporation Project; $100.0 Million Loan of December 7, 1978; Effective Date: February 6, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1983 The loan was made to cover the foreign exchange requirements of subprojects to be financed by KDFC over the years 1979 and 1980. In order ANNEX II -34- Page 8 of 14 pages to support relatively labor-intensive enterprises, a component of $20 mil- lion was earmarked for financing specifically: (a) enterprises with fixed assets not exceeding $750,000; or (b) projects generating employment at a fixed investment cost per job not greater than $12,500. Also, in order to finance small- and mediurm-sized leasing projects, an amount of up to $10.0 million of the proceeds of the proposed loan will be made available to the Korea Development Leasing Corporation (KDLC), a leasing company affiliated to KDFC, by way of subloans. As of December 31, 1979, about 59% of the loan had been disbursed. Loan No. 1676 Electronics Technology Project; $29.0 Million Loan of March 29, 1979; Effective Date: June 28, 1979; Closing Date: December 31. 1983 After initial delays in finalizing specifications and bidding documents for engineering, support and research equipment, the project is progressing satisfactorily. Bids have been received and are being evaluated for a major proportion of the equipment. The training program is also under way. Loan No. 1749 Third Small and Medium Industry Bank Project; $60 Million Loan of July 23, 1979; Effective Date: September 26, 1979, Closing Date: December 31. 1983 Apart from direct imports, the proceeds of the loan would be utilized by SMIB to finance the foreign exchange component of domestically produced capital goods. To ensure that a reasonable proportion of the loan is directed towards small, labor-intensive projects, an amount of $25 mil- lion of the proceeds of the loan will be earmarked to finance: (a) enter- prises with fixed assets not exceeding $300,000; or (b) projects generating employment at a fixed investment cost per job not greater than $8,500. The loan would assist SMIB in its efforts to support the Goverrument's policy of increasing the regional dispersal of employment opportunities and of deep- ening the industrial structure, and also to continue SMIB support of projects which would complement large-scale manufacturing enterprises. Population Sector Loan No. 1774 Population Project;/1 $30 Million Loan of December 27, 1979, Closing Date: June 30, 1984 The project will assist the Government to reduce fertility over the next five years, and simultaneously reduce infant and maternal mortality, particularly in rural areas. The project has been designed to reach out into communities with primary care services, particularly maternal and child health and family planning. The major components are: (a) improving the delivery of health and family planning services by strengthening and expanding the delivery network; (b) increasing demand for services by strengthening and expanding information, education and communication activities in health and /1 Not yet effective. ANNEX II Page 9 of 14 pages family planning; and (c) improving the program's evaluation and administra- tion capacities. The principal beneficiaries will be mothers and children, primarily in rural areas, who do not have access to services. It is esti- mated that about 10 million people would be provided primary health care services under the project, thus lowering fertility, mortality and morbidity. Education Sector Loan No. 906 Second Education Project; $23.0 Million Loan and Credit No. 394 $20.0 Million Credit of June 13, 1973; Effective Date: September 10, 1973; Closing Date: December 31, 1979 The project includes assistance for re-equipping 85 educational institutions at secondary and university levels. The Loan/Credit funds are mainly used to finance equipment. The Government is financing related works. Project execution remains about two years behind schedule due to initial delays and some project changes. The project is now making satis- factory progress. All the equipment has been contracted, and about 95% delivered; furniture procurement has been completed; civil works were all completed by the end of December 1978; and the fellowship program is well underway. As of December 31, 1979, disbursements were completed under the Credit and reached over 97% of the total loan amount. Loan No. 1096 Third Education Project; $22.5 Million Loan of March 31, 1975: Effective Date: June 6, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1981 The project includes assistance for extension and equipping of nine institutions (technical, agricultural and fisheries) under the Ministry of Education (MOE) and seven vocational training institutes (VTIs) under the Administrator of Labor Affairs (ALA). Project implementation is satisfactory. Physical facilities and the technical assistance program have been completed. Training operations have commenced in five VTIs. However, equipment procure- ment under the MOE component is delayed by almost one year because of a temporary shortage of counterpart funds. Only about 75% of equipment has been awarded and 60% delivered. Delays of equipment procurement under MOE required a postponement of the Closing Date by one year. Estimated total project cost now is expected to be below, but close to, the appraisal esti- mate. As of December 31, 1979, disbursements were 82% of the appraisal estimate. Loan No. 1474 Vocational Training Project; $23.0 Million Loan of July 22. 1977; Effective Date: October 25, 1977; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 The project includes the establishment of eight new Vocational Training Institutes (VTIs), equipment for a National Central Vocational Training Institute (NCVTI) and technical assistance, part of which is to be provided by UNDP and Germany. The implementation schedule is about six months behind original schedule. Civil works contracts have been awarded for six of the eight VTIs and are virtually completed for two VTIs. The completed ANNEK II -36- Page 10 of 14 pages two VTIs started classes in September 1979. The seventh and eighth VTI will be contracted early 1980. About 60% of equipment has been awarded and about 20% delivered. Five out of ten experts are in post and the fellowship program has been completed. Disbursements have improved significantly in 1979 and amount to US$6.8 million or about 1.05% of the appraisal estimate. As of December 31, 1979, disbursement was about 30% of the total loan. Since management performance, particularly reporting to the Bank, was recently unsatisfactory, the Bank urged the Project Director to improve content of quarterly progress reports and speed up submission to the Bank of information regarding contracting of civil works and equipment. Loan No. 1800 Higher Technical Education:/1 $100.0 Million Loan of February 21, 1980: Closing Date: June 30, 1984 The aim of the sector program is to improve the quality and content of higher technical education in Korea, so that it can contribute effectively to the country's technological needs in the eighties. The sector program is to be financed under the loan, covers three aspects of higher education, viz. engineering education, management education and tech- nical training. The program will create a flexible system of supplying technical skills, remove the principal constraints on quarterly improvement and reduce the investment gap in private higher technical education. The overall program, of which a part would be financed under the proposed loan, would comprise about 10 national programs for organizing, curricula and staff development, and about 55 subprojects for development of physical facilities. Tourism Sector Loan No. 953 Kyongju Tourism ProJect; $25.0 Million Loan of January 4. 1974; Effective Date: May 6. 1974; Closing Date: December 31, 1979 The project forms part of the first phase of the planned develop- ment of the Bomun Lake resort near Kyongju. It provides for a multipurpose dam; an irrigation system for about 1,200 ha; improvement and expansion of the water supply and sewerage and solid waste disposal systems for the city of Kyongju and the resort area; installation of electrical supply and telecom- munication facilities for the resort area; the construction and/or realign- ment of about 57 m of roads, infrastructure, including storm water drainage, environmental sanitation, community facilities, and a golf course; and a school for training hotel personnel. The first two hotels with 600 rooms were completed and opened for operation on April 1, 1978. Negotiations with other private investors are under way for a third hotel and also for apart- ments and restaurants in the Bomun resort area. The total amount of the loan was expected to be disbursed by the Closing Date. /1 Not yet effective. 37 ANNEX II Page 11 of 14 pages Regional Development Loan No. 1070 Secondary Cities Regional Project; $15.0 Million Loan of January 15, 1975; Effective Date: August 18, 1975; Closing Date: September 30, 1980 Implementation of the Secondary Cities Regional Project is pro- ceeding satisfactorily. Three housing sites, two access roads, a city market fishery harbor infrastructure and building complex and associated electrical works have been completed. Installation of refrigeration and ice handling equipment at the fishery complex has experienced some delays; the fishery complex is now expected to be fully operational by March 1980. Construction of houses at all three sites has been completed and the sites are fully occupied. After the initial delays, mainly in fulfilling conditions of effectiveness and establishing the Gwangju Regional Development Unit, the project has moved extremely well. As of December 31, 1979, disbursement was about 79% of the loan amount. Loan No. 1758 /1 Chungju Multipurpose Project,/1 $125 Million Loan of December 27, 1979; Closing Date: June 30, 1985 The project would help meet the growing demand for municipal, industrial, and irrigation water in the Han Basin for about 20 years following its completion in 1984. It would also substantially reduce flood damage, generate an average of 770 million kilowatt hours annually and provide 460 MW of peaking capacity for Korea's power system. The principal features of the project include: a 90 m high concrete dam across the south Han River; a power plant containing four 115 MW generating units, and associated trans- mission facilities; a reregulating dam about 20 km downstream of the main dam; relocation of about 100 km of roads and 10 km of railway; protective works in the reservoir area including the raising of an existing embankment of a current plant and other miscellaneous works; implementation of a resettlement program for some 9,300 families affected by the project; and consulting services. Transportation Sector Loan No. 917 Ports Project; $80.0 Million Loan of June 27, 1973; Effective Date: September 18. 1973; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 Civil works and provision of equipment financed under the First Port Project are completed. Final estimated cost is $143 million including $101 million foreign exchange. The excess foreign exchange requirement over /1 Not yet effective. ANNEX II -38- Page 12 of 14 pages the $80 million provided by the Bank loan is being provided by a Saudi Fund for Development loan of $35 million to the Korean Government; this loan was based upon the revised foreign exchange requirements of $115 million arrived at following the first large increase in the price of petroleum products. The balance of the latter loan will be spent on additional civil works. Loan No. 1101 Fifth Railway Project; $100.0 Million Loan of April 10, 1975; Effective Date: July 15, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1980 The project will help the Korean National Railraod (KNR) continue as a major carrier of freight and passengers by providing for: the upgrading, modernization and expansion of track, rolling stock, motive power, and other equipment; the improvement of the efficiency of operation; and the strengthen- ing of its financial position. The main components of the project are: an increase in station and line capacity and improvements in signaling; acquisi- tion of rolling stock, diesel and electric locomotives, spare parts and repair facilities; track renewal and improvement; bridge strengthening; completion of electrification of 71 km of industrial lines; and other miscellaneous items. All contracts to be financed from the loan have been awarded and most of the equipment delivered. Over 97% of the loan proceeds had been disbursed by December 31, 1979. Loan No. 1203 Third Highway Project; $90.0 Million Loan of February 20, 1976; Effective Date: May 17, 1976; Closing Date: December 31, 1981 The loan provides funds to help finance: (a) the construction, chiefly on new alignments, including paving, of about 195 km of four national highways, including supervision of the work by consultants; (b) paving and improvement, chiefly on present alignments, of nine national highways totaling about 600 km, including supervision of the work by consultants; and (c) feasibility studies by consultants of about 1,200 km of national and provincial roads, to be followed by detailed engineering. All contracts for construction and paving were completed by June 1979. Feasi- bility studies by consultants started in January 1978, and are now proceeding satisfactorily. As of December 31, 1979, disbursements were about 97% of the total loan. The Saudi Fund for Development is providing a loan of $35 million to assist in financing the project. Loan No. 1401 Second Ports Project; $67.0 Million Loan of April 28, 1977; Effective Date: July 27, 1977; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 The project consists of: (a) a 700 m extension of container berths being financed under the First Ports Project and a 335,000 sq m expansion of the container stacking area provided under that project with ancilliary works; rehabilitation of piers 3 and 4, the central wharf, and lighter wharf No. 5; (b) procurement of container cranes, mobile container ANNEX II -39- Page 13 of 14 pages handling equipment, and tugboats; (c) Engineering Consultanft Services are (d) Technical Assistance and Training. Contracts for the extension of container berths and for rehabilitation of pier No. 4 and lighter warf No. 5 were let in July and December 1979 respectively, following delay in appointing the consultants for final engineering. Estimated costs have increased to $170 million ($67 foreign exchange) compared with the appraisal estimate of $112 ($70 foreign exchange). KMPA expects to introduce commer- cial accounting from January 1, 1983. Traffic and specially ccrtainerized general cargo traffic continues to increase at Busan. Loan No. 1542 Sixth Railway Project; $120.0 Million Loan of April 10, 1978; Effective Date: August 3, 1978; Closing Date: June 30, 1982 The project would provide KNR with the capacity required to meet forecast traffic, and reduce operating and maintenance costs. It includes continued double tracking and electrification of lines, extension of yards and terminals, continued installation of centralized traffic control, track and rail relIiwWL, separation of road and rail at crossings, installation of a permanent way workshop, procurement of diesel locomotives, passenger cars and freight cars, provision of a new passenger car workshop, installation of additional telecommunication and power facilities and provision of tech- nical assistance to KNR. The loan will also finance transport sector studies. Contracts for about 98% of the equipment to be financed under the loan have been awarded and most of the equipment is under delivery. The feasibility of major investments for 1980 and 1981 has been carried out and the transport sector studies are under way. As of December 31, 1979, disbursements were about 63% of the total loan. Loan No. 1640 Fourth Highway Project; $143.0 Million Loan of December 7, 1978; Effective Date: March 14, 1979; Closing Date: December 31, 1982 The project consists of: (a) construction and improvement, including paving and supervision by consultants, of 36 sections of national roads totaling about 950 km; (b) construction and improvement, including paving and supervision by consultants, of 10 sections of provincial roads totaling about 280 km; (c) procurement of additional road maintenance equipment for maintaining national roads; (d) a study by consultants of the institutions involved in the planning, design, maintenance, construction, administration and financing of provincial and county (gun) roads, and the preparation of a program for improving the organization and functions of such institutions, upgrading provincial and gun road maintenance and the future development of the gun road system,- to be followed by detailed engineering of about 2,000 km of gun roads; and (e) provision of fellowships for training staff of the Ministry of Construction. Construction of one road was started in April 1979, and bids on the remaining roads are scheduled for August 1979. A contract for the study was signed, and work started, in September 1979. However, due to budgetary constraints, the work is pro- ceeding slower than originally scheduled. ANNEX II -40- Page 14 of 14 pages Power Sector Loan No. 1758 Gojeong Power ProJect, $115 Million Loan of December 27, 1979: Closing Date: December 31, 1984 The project constitutes the next logical step in KECO's power development program to meet the load growth up to 1986. The project would provide for the installation of two 500 MW coal/oil-fired units and associated auxiliary equipment; coal handling and storage facilities, fuel oil tanks, ash system and storage area, a fuel unloading dock for ships up to 100,000 DWT displacement; a pumping station and a 17 km steel pipe to transport fresh water to the station; and a 160 km double circuit, 345 KV transmission line between the power station and Seoul, and related terminal substations and management .ot3ulting services. The project will enable KECO to meet part of the increased demand of the interconnected system from 1984, and it is expected that it will help to improve KECO's planning, organization, finances, and the structure of electricity rates. An important benefit is the intro- duction of advanced technology to Korea, through the participation of local manufacturers in association with foreign companies, in the manufacture of some of the main equipment. ANNEX III KOREA CITIZENS NATIONAL BANK sa mentay Pr Lt Data Sheet Se tioi: T -- TieLtabLe of Key Events (a) Tine tak-n tu prepare project: From May 1979 to November 1979 (b) Agency which prepared the project: CNB (c) Date of the first Bank mission to consider the project: July 16, 1979 (d) Departure of appraisal mission: November 11, 1979 (e) Negotiations completed: February 18, 1980 (f) Planned date of effectiveness: July 1980 Section II - Special Bank Implementation Action No specific action is considered necessary. Section III - Special Conditions (a) CNB will maintain a long-term debt/equity ratio not exceeding 7:1 (para. 54); (b) At least 50% of the proceeds of the proposed loan will be used to make subloans to firms employing.no more than 50 workers or with total assets not exceeding W 250 million.In addition, only those enterprises whose total assets do not exceed W 500 million or who have less than 100 employees if in the industrial, mining, or transportation fields, or less than 20 employees if in the construction services or other fields, would be eligible for subloans (para. 60); (c) Individual subloans approved by CNB under the Bank loan shall not exceed $400,000 equivalent (para. 61); (d) At least 50% of the proceeds of the proposed loan will be used to finance projects located outside of the city limits of Seoul (para. 62); (e) A free limit of $250,000 is recommended (para. 64); (f) CNB will calculate the Economic Rate of Return for the subloans above the free limit (para. 64). (g) Apart from direct imports, the proceeds of the loan will be used by CNB to finance the foreign exchange component (estimated at 60%) of domestically procured or manufactured capital goods (para. 64). _____________________ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~IBRD 14617 s_,rnUS.Sr~.RX ip . 12J \ [23- ; 12 JANUARy J 19 J / NORTH KOREA C H I lN A S / tt > CIAS A KOREA Ecy st Sea RPOF KOEA Ye/low DJAdAh 38. 1Z*Q§0 5-XANV? Dongdcheon ng X~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Gogrun East *~~ Oce anuitn9o Chna Sea, ,'5 16 mcook W 6.,*"tJ o,,y.w.dtV In. eO8> ASonWn Weo eongscen rho thE rtf (th tanhe of Bo.,mE.,j.hto<, on t h'fI V. uowe a mYel ow Ste ant tfot0to. -9Zf 16b=oooo. ng 37C~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~3' 35.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. ~mand enoM Yelo Sa Gim onur u a 17~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~W t ° ~~~~~CNB BRANCH NETWORK N A * OFFIC E ..~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~____ P RIMARY ROADS 34* 34' "ns = RIVERS < \' .< ,,'. >/.< ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~SPECIAL CITIES _ - PROVINCIAL BOUNDARIES _~ ~ ~ ~~~~~ -- INTERNATIONAL BOUNDA RI ES JAIu~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~J Je ct q~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Jno J-E J U 03o 120 1U4 6,0* 80 100 1,20, 14,0 160 CNB BRANCH NETRILOKETERS 123' 136' 137' 138o ' ' 28 ' i ' i7r5~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~N 126 i7-12-C29