Albania Country Program Evaluation © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org ATTRIBUTION Please cite the report as: World Bank. 2021. Albania Country Program Evaluation. Independent Evaluation Group. Washington, DC: World Bank. COVER PHOTO Adapted from shutterstock/igli llubani EDITING AND PRODUCTION Amanda O’Brien GRAPHIC DESIGN Luísa Ulhoa This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The bound- aries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissem- ination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Albania Country Program Evaluation April 9, 2021 Contents Abbreviations v Acknowledgments vii Overview ix 1. Country Context and World Bank Group Strategy and Program FY11–19�������������� 1 Country Context 1 The Bank Group’s Strategic Objectives 4 Consolidated Framework for the Evaluation Period 5 Bank Group Program Delivery 6 2. Overall Assessment of World Bank Group Strategies and Program����������������������9 Adequacy of Strategic Focus 9 Program Flexibility 12 Adequacy of Program Design 12 Intellectual and Analytical Contributions 16 Intra–Bank Group Synergies 19 Convening and Development Partner Collaboration 19 Implementation and Results 20 Contributions to Capacity Development 21 Addressing Gender Issues 22 3. Developments and World Bank Group Contributions in Specific Areas��������������25 Strengthening Macro-Financial Management and Public Service Delivery 25 Improving the Conditions for Private Sector Development 30 Improving the Management of Land, Water, and the Environment 43 Improving the Quality of Service Provision in the Social Sectors 46 Conclusions, Lessons, and Suggestions��������������������������������������������������������������61 4.  Bibliography����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������64 ii Boxes Advisory Services and Analytics to Prepare Box 2.1.  for Reforms and Underpin Operations 17 Raising Awareness on Gender Issues through Advisory Box 2.2.  Services and Analytics 23 Figures Links between the FY11–14 CPS, the SCD, and the FY15–19 CPF Figure 2.1.  11 Figure 3.1. Critical Constraints to Private Sector Development in Albania 32 Tables Table 1.1. Evaluation Pillars for the FY11–19 Country Program Evaluation 6 Table 4.1. Selected Findings, Lessons, and Suggestions 62 iii Appendixes Appendix A. Outcome Rating 72 Appendix B. Country Program Evaluation Methodology 75  ortfolio Review of the World Bank Group Operational Program in Appendix C. P Albania FY11–19 79 Appendix D. Results Framework 110 Appendix E. Donor Coordination 119 Appendix F. World Bank Group Support for European Union Accession 122 Appendix G. Risk to Implementation Ratings 124 Appendix H. Statistics and Key Indicators 126 Appendix I. List of People Interviewed 131 iv Abbreviations ASA advisory services and analytics CPE Country Program Evaluation CPF Country Partnership Framework CPS Country Partnership Strategy CPSPR CPS Progress Report DPF development policy financing DPL development policy loan EU European Union FY fiscal year GDP gross domestic product IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICZMCP Integrated Coastal Zone Management and Cleanup Project IEG Independent Evaluation Group Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group IFC International Finance Corporation IMF International Monetary Fund IPF investment project financing IPRO Immovable Property Registration Office LAMP Land Administration and Management Project LSMS Living Standards Measurement Survey MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency NPL nonperforming loan v NSDI National Strategy for Development and Integration PFR Public Finance Review PLR Performance and Learning Review PPP public-private partnership RED Road Economic Decision Model SAMP Social Assistance Modernization Project SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SILC Statistics on Income and Living Conditions All dollar amounts are US dollars unless otherwise indicated. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Abbreviations vi Acknowledgments An Independent Evaluation Group team led by Florence Charlier (senior evaluation officer) and Yumeka Hirano (economist) prepared this report. The team includes Corky De Asis (evaluation assistant); Ramachandra Jammi (se- nior evaluation officer), April Connelly (senior natural resource specialist), and Ana Maria Arriagada, Varadan Atur, Ali Khadr, Chandra Pant, Richard Pollard, and Sengphet Lattanavong (consultants). In addition to her role as overall task team leader, Florence Charlier led the social protection anal- ysis. Yumeka Hirano focused on private sector development and portfolio analysis. Ali Khadr assessed the health sector and the overall relevance and effectiveness of the World Bank Group partnership framework and program, including an assessment of the Bank Group’s contribution to helping Alba- nia progress on the European Union agenda. Chandra Pant led the review of public finance management and the financial sector. Ramachandra Jammi was responsible for the infrastructure sector assessment (roads and energy). Varadan Atur contributed to the energy sector assessment. Richard Pollard reviewed water, land administration and management, and environment-re- lated issues. April Connelly provided guidance on land administration issues. Ana-Maria Arriagada assessed Bank Group support for education and skills and provided overall guidance on the human development agenda, pover- ty, and gender issues. Corky De Asis helped prepare the portfolio analysis. Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group Sengphet Lattanavong provided key inputs. Carla F. Coles was responsible for administrative aspects, including document management and organizing the deep dive weekly meetings. The report was conducted under the guidance and supervision of Jeffrey Al- len Chelsky (manager), Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez (director), and Sophie Sirtaine (director of strategy and operations), and the overall direction of Alison Evans (Director-General, Evaluation, and vice president). Peer reviewers for this evaluation included Anita Tuladhar (mission chief for Albania and deputy division chief, European Department, International Monetary Fund) and Tzvetina Tzvetkova (policy officer, Unit for Albania in vii the Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations, European Commission). The Independent Evaluation Group is grateful to the many representatives of the government, private sector entities, development partners, and other stakeholders who provided valuable insights into the Bank Group’s program in Albania and related issues. The team also thanks Bank Group manage- ment and country team members, including previous and current staff work- ing on the Albania program, who provided the evaluation team with valuable time, information, and feedback. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Acknowledgments viii Overview Key Messages Albania had transitioned to a market-oriented, middle-income economy by 2008, but the economic slowdown in the wake of the global crisis led to a reversal in poverty reduction. The crisis led to several key economic reforms, not all of which have been sus- tained after the recovery. The World Bank Group made a substantial contribution over the last decade to many reforms relevant to the country’s development priorities, drawing effectively on both lending and nonlending instru- ments. However, the discontinuation of the Living Standards Mea- surement Survey instrument from 2012 to 2019 has undermined the assessment of progress in reducing poverty and promoting shared prosperity, including the Bank Group program’s contribution. Project implementation was often difficult because design, at times, was insufficiently attuned to implementation capacity and political economy factors. Nevertheless, the Bank Group made significant contributions to fiscal management, the financial sector, waste management and irrigation, and social protection, including the pension system. Bank Group support was less consequential in improving conditions for private sector development, the quality and management of energy and roads, land and property regis- tration, and health and water and sanitation services. Although the program was extensive, it was responsive to opportunities, particu- larly those presented by the initial reform ambitions of the govern- ment that took office in 2013. The Independent Evaluation Group notes the importance of con- tinuing to improve portfolio implementation, being more selective in new lending, and ensuring that design adequately accounts for political economy and capacity constraints. ix  A priority for the World Bank is to encourage authorities to publish the results of future Statistics on Income and Living Conditions sur- veys promptly and regularly, given how critical data availability and quality are to designing and assessing efforts to support poverty reduction and boost shared prosperity. The World Bank can build on its efforts to use advisory services and analytics to articulate and build consensus and capacity for reform options. x   This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) reviews the effectiveness of the World Bank Group’s partnership with Albania during fiscal years (FY)11–19, assessing the extent to which relevant objectives were achieved. Country Context and Bank Group Program Albania emerged from the collapse of isolationist communism in the early 1990s as one of the poorest countries in Europe, but the country transitioned to a middle-income, market-oriented economy by 2008 because of strong economic growth. However, growth slowed going into the evaluation period. Poverty, which had been in decline up to 2008, rose again by 2012, but recent trends are uncertain. Access to many social services—including education, health, and water and sanitation—has improved rapidly, but inequities and quality issues persist. Albania’s politics are extremely polarized and engendered a constitutional crisis recently, but successive governments have pursued a common vision of promoting strong, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth and European Union (EU) membership. The country made progress toward the latter goal. Several dimensions of governance and the business climate have improved, though most continue to lag regional comparators. The Foreign Affairs Council of the EU has now approved the opening of accession negotiations with Albania (to be confirmed by the European Council), subject to further progress on strengthening governance. Two strategy documents guided Bank Group support to Albania during the Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group evaluation period: the FY11–14 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) as ad- justed by a 2013 CPS Progress Report, and the FY15–19 Country Partnership Framework (CPF), revised and extended to FY20 in a November 2018 Perfor- mance and Learning Review. The Bank Group delivered a sizeable program, which included International Bank for Reconstruction and Development financing commitments of about $1.1 billion for 19 operations (accounting for about one-third of official development assistance) in addition to an inherited portfolio of about $300 million for 15 operations. Advisory services and analytics (ASA) activi- ties—many financed by trust funds—made up an important part of the World xi Bank’s program. International Finance Corporation (IFC) investments and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency guarantees diminished over the second phase of the evaluation period, even though IFC continued to remain involved with advisory projects. Overall Assessment of the Program The program had broad coverage and aligned with national priorities and major World Bank diagnostics, including the Systematic Country Diagnostic. The Bank Group engaged at the policy and strategy level in most cases, capi- talizing on strong knowledge work. The Bank Group consistently supported Albania’s EU accession goal through a program rooted in the government’s National Strategies for Development and Integration. The Bank Group showed agility in responding to the global and European financial crises. It also seized an opportunity presented when a new, reform-oriented government took office in 2013 by adjusting its pro- gram to match government reform ambitions. Results framework quality improved over the evaluation period. The CPS results framework was excessively complex. The CPF results framework was more streamlined, though it needed substantial adjustment at the Performance and Learning Review stage. Although challenging, given Albania’s absorptive and implementation capacity, the program was generally an appropriate and well-sequenced blend of financing and ASA that contained important synergies Albania Country Program Evaluation  Overview among components, such as those between the World Bank’s work on fiscal consolidation and on pensions. In a few cases (notably land administration), coverage did not include areas essential to achieving strategic objectives. The design of many projects—particularly those approved before the eval- uation period—included multiple components across multiple sectors. In addition, project selection and design in several cases (for example, in health and land administration) did not sufficiently account for political economy challenges, such as frequent turnover of ministers. As a result, portfolio implementation was challenging, and the World Bank responded by extend- ing or restructuring more than half of the investment project financing (IPF) operations in the portfolio. xii The program’s ASA were an important Bank Group contribution, underscor- ing its comparative strength in knowledge work. ASA were of good technical quality and helped articulate options for reform (which were carried through successfully in some cases) and build the capacity to implement them, nota- bly in the financial sector and pensions. Important analytical contributions were also made through regional vehicles to complement Albania-specific ASA; these proved an efficient channel for high-caliber ASA. The long tran- sition from the Living Standards Measurement Survey, to which the World Bank provided analytical support, to the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey (concluded only recently) impeded poverty monitoring and design of reforms after 2012, leaving policy makers and development partners without a crucial tool not only to track poverty head count and distributional gains and losses but also to understand poverty determinants, essential for evidence-based policy making. There were several cases of effective collaboration and complementarity across Bank Group institutions, especially in the program’s support for fi- nancial sector and business climate reforms. The architecture for government-donor coordination evolved over the eval- uation period. The effectiveness of these coordination mechanisms varied widely across sectors and deteriorated over the evaluation period. Neverthe- less, Bank Group coordination and division of labor with other partners was often strong, making efforts complementary. In most sectors, coordination Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group between the Bank Group and government officials was good, positioning the Bank Group to contribute at the policy and strategy level. However, its lead- ership was less evident on business climate, infrastructure, and urban water and sanitation. The Bank Group contributed to developing institutional capacity in Albania and, to a lesser extent, improving gender equity. Institutional capacity was a major constraint, aggravated by Albania’s small population and high out- migration, the decentralization drive, and the high standards to which EU accession requires aligning. However, the Bank Group clearly contributed to building capacity in specific areas, notably financial sector regulation and supervision, insolvency, energy, and pensions and social protection. Finally, both the CPS and CPF emphasized a social inclusion agenda, with the poor- xiii est and most vulnerable groups including women, youth, and ethnic minori- ties. World Bank ASA helped diagnose gender inequities, and project support for improving access to and delivery of social services focused on vulnerable groups likely contributed modestly to reducing gender vulnerability and obstacles to inclusion. However, the lack of comparable data makes it hard to be definitive on the World Bank’s contribution. Engagement and Results in Specific Areas Under each area of Bank Group intervention, the CPE reviews specific Bank Group objectives and their relevance, instruments deployed, design quality, and program implementation and contribution to results sought in the CPS and CPF results frameworks. Strengthening Macrofinancial Management and Public Service Delivery In fiscal management and public service delivery, the specific objectives— strengthening public financial management, consolidating the fiscal stance, and reforming delivery processes for many public services to improve access and convenience—were highly relevant. The World Bank’s program was an appropriate mix of lending and technical assistance, strengthened by rel- evant analytical work. The support helped make advances in key areas. In public financial management, it strengthened several aspects of expendi- Albania Country Program Evaluation  Overview ture management, including the medium-term budgeting process and the financial management information system. Progress was also made toward fiscal consolidation, notably through the World Bank’s support for an arrears clearance and prevention strategy and for pension reform. Overall, however, the fiscal situation remains fragile. Although fiscal consol- idation of about 4 percentage points of gross domestic product was achieved over 2014–17, arrears have begun accumulating again (if more slowly than before). Inadequately regulated off-budget public-private partnerships in roads have multiplied, giving rise to opaque contingent liabilities. Shortcom- ings in public financial management and fiscal consolidation derived largely from a difficult political economy environment. Nevertheless, good progress xiv is being made toward improving the delivery of public services to make pro- cesses more transparent and citizen friendly. On balance, the achievement of objectives in the fiscal management and public service delivery area is rated moderately satisfactory. In the financial sector, an initial focus on credit expansion shifted to safe- guarding stability. These objectives, including the shift in focus, were relevant and well aligned with prevailing conditions and government priorities. The Bank Group’s program (in which IFC and the Multilateral Investment Guaran- tee Agency were actively involved) combined financing and guarantees, tech- nical assistance, and analytics in a coherent and flexible package. ASA—in- cluding an important FY14 Financial Sector Assessment Program update and capacity-building support for the Bank of Albania and the Albania Financial Services Authority—was a crucial part of the package. With Bank Group sup- port, significant progress was made in strengthening the legal and regulatory framework that governs bank and nonbank financial institutions, and steps were taken to address the significant nonperforming loans that had accumu- lated early in the evaluation period. As a result, most indicators of financial soundness and stability have improved in recent years. Overall, achievement of objectives in the financial sector is rated satisfactory. Improving the Conditions for Private Sector Development Regarding business climate improvements, the related objectives displayed continuity with a tourism-related objective explicitly introduced under the Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group CPF. The objectives were relevant given Albania’s need to mobilize private investment and the tourism sector’s potential as a source of growth. Bank Group support for business climate improvements blended several instru- ments into a credible package that capitalized on World Bank–IFC collabora- tion and complementarity. Bank Group contributions enhanced the quality of business regulations, but challenges remain. Despite some improvements, foreign direct investment has concentrated in less productive segments of the economy, including energy, construction, and mining, and has remained broadly stagnant, whereas private investment as a share of gross domestic product declined steadily over the evaluation period. Despite Bank Group support, the conditions for accelerated private sector growth—an explicit higher-order objective under the CPF—are xv not yet in place. On balance, achievement of objectives related to the business environment and tourism development is rated moderately unsatisfactory. Bank Group objectives to improve land and property registration and its gender inclusiveness were highly relevant because poorly defined property rights constrained economic activity, and a high gender gap in land ownership prevailed. The World Bank directed an appropriate mix of financing and ASA at land registration objectives, but lending instruments proved too complex. In addition, genuine progress, which hinged on the adoption of a legal frame- work definitively resolving informal settlements and property restitution and compensation claims, was beyond the reach of World Bank instruments. World Bank support helped increase property registration, but with major ca- veats concerning records quality and coverage. It also helped reduce transac- tion times, thus lowering business compliance costs and (with other partners) strengthening the institutional setup. Given this shortcoming, the achieve- ment of objectives for land registration is rated moderately unsatisfactory. In the energy sector, objectives spanned virtually the entire sector, display- ing broad continuity and alignment with Albania’s needs and plans. The Bank Group deployed a wide range of instruments that built on World Bank– IFC complementarities. Bank Group support for improving electricity production had mixed results. A thermal plant developed under a World Bank project (FY04–11) remains off-line several years later. Progress in other areas has also been mixed. The Albania Country Program Evaluation  Overview efficiency of supply and cost recovery has improved significantly, but energy losses remain high and intercompany arrears above target. Important prog- ress has been made on institutional reforms, EU accession, and the estab- lishment of the Albania power exchange, but market liberalization is still behind schedule. Achievement of objectives in the energy sector is rated moderately unsatisfactory. A shift in emphasis in road sector objectives increased the focus on mainte- nance and expenditure controls under the CPF, in line with new World Bank analytical work and government priorities. A mix of World Bank IPF and ASA with IFC advisory services evolved—appropriately—from an initial focus on road construction to maintenance, regional trade facilitation, and sector policy. xvi The World Bank’s support for secondary and local roads helped improve access for communities. World Bank support also contributed to improving the quality of the public investment program in the roads sector and to increasing capacity for road sector institutions, road safety, and resilience issues, although sig- nificant results have not yet materialized in some areas. The achievement of objectives in the roads sector is rated moderately satisfactory. Improving the Management of Land, Water, and the Environment Focus shifted over the evaluation period from reducing climate change vul- nerability to increasing the productivity and sustainability of land use. The mix of instruments deployed was adequately geared to the objectives, sup- porting both investments and policy development. The World Bank has been broadly successful in reducing erosion and enhanc- ing carbon sequestration. In disaster mitigation, much of the success has been reactive to natural disasters such as severe flooding in 2013. Productiv- ity improvements through irrigation were also achieved, though with delays caused by institutional change. In solid waste management, expected results were achieved but with extended delays. Bank Group program achievement of objectives under this pillar is rated moderately satisfactory. Improving the Quality of Service Provision Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group in the Social Sectors In education, Bank Group strategy shifted from supporting country educa- tion reform strategies to focusing on skills and the labor market. During the CPS period and in collaboration with other partners, the World Bank carried out a balanced mix of lending and ASA highlighting key sector challenges. The Bank Group ended its support to education, given the government’s view that it no longer required World Bank funding for education. Instead, the CPF supported an analytic program on skills and the labor market. Although not flagged in the Systematic Country Diagnostic or 2003 Enterprise Survey as a major constraint on the private sector, interest in this issue increased during the CPF period. The results framework did not include any specific outcomes in this area. xvii There were some improvements in access to secondary and higher educa- tion, but caveats were significant regarding quality improvement. Most no- tably, implementation of reforms to strengthen performance incentives has lagged. World Bank analytical work on skills and the labor market was well received and useful to the government, but it is too early to assess its impact. Nevertheless, based on the modestly positive results, achievement of objec- tives in education is rated moderately satisfactory. In health, Bank Group objectives on access and health system efficiency supported government priorities, with the focus shifting from primary health care during the CPS period to hospital management under the CPF. The World Bank deployed a balanced mix of ASA with development policy financing and IPF, and IFC supported a medical laboratory public-private partnership aimed at improving diagnostic service quality. These had the right focus but did not sufficiently factor in capacity and political economy constraints. Project implementation was slow and difficult, yielding very modest results, although progress was made (among other areas) in unifying health financing mecha- nisms and in improving some physical and financial access to health services. Achievement of health-related objectives is rated moderately unsatisfactory. Regarding social protection, World Bank objectives sought to help improve access and the equity and efficiency of Albania’s system. The objectives were closely aligned with national strategies. World Bank support was a well- sequenced and balanced mix of ASA and lending, with ASA serving to build Albania Country Program Evaluation  Overview ownership for the reform agenda. Steady financing through the period sup- ported ambitious reforms of the social assistance programs Ndihma Ekono- mike and Disability Allowance. In addition to multiyear technical assistance, development policy financing was deployed to support pension reforms aimed at reducing the fiscal burden and to strengthen incentives and gender equity. Pension reform has successfully reduced the fiscal burden, although challenges remain. Regarding social assistance reforms, World Bank support helped Albania improve coverage, targeting, and efficiency, but reform im- plementation has faced significant challenges. The rollout of the new system has been slower than anticipated, partly because of significant errors of ex- clusion given the lack of updated household welfare data. The achievement of objectives in social protection is rated moderately satisfactory. xviii Finally, in urban water supply and sanitation, Bank Group objectives broad- ened over the evaluation period (from a sole focus on sanitation under the CPS to include water supply under the CPF). The focus was on key infrastruc- ture at the municipal level. Good progress was made toward sewerage infrastructure development and service improvement targets. Water supply services in Durres also improved, though with delays, but the institutional capacity of the city’s water utility remains a challenge. Beyond Durres, Albania’s water and sanitation utili- ties continue to underperform in the context of weaknesses in the policy framework, although there has been some recent performance improvement from a low base. In general, World Bank lending in the sector was focused on infrastructure development, providing only limited support for institutional capacity building. Achievement of objectives for access to water and sanita- tion is rated moderately satisfactory. Conclusions and Suggestions Overall, the extent to which the Bank Group program achieved its objectives is rated moderately satisfactory. The overall rating is based on a synthesis of pillar-level ratings, with a greater weight given to the rating for pillar 1, where lending during the evaluation period was concentrated. In addition to the results to which the program contributed and the relevance of its objec- tives, the rating recognizes certain positive features of program design and Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group implementation, including its agility in responding to shocks and in capital- izing on opportunities in the partnership, and its strategic use of knowledge work. In hindsight, there are certain things the Bank Group could have done differently, such as streamlining the program, simplifying project design, and more proactively supporting efforts to mitigate the capacity and political economy risks identified ex ante. Based on the CPE findings, it is suggested that the Bank Group consider the following: » Use ASA to engage government authorities, citizens, and other stakeholders to articulate and build support and consensus and capacity for reform options in the sectors and thematic areas that the Bank Group considers essential to xix reducing poverty and promoting shared prosperity and where there is stake- holder demand. » Be more selective in new lending, given the implementation challenges over the evaluation period, by deploying it to support reforms and investments for which consensus has been established, ensuring that efforts are made to proactively mitigate capacity and political economy constraints. » Encourage authorities and other stakeholders to ensure that results of future rounds of the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey are pub- lished regularly and promptly, now that data are available and given the long period experienced when data were unavailable. Household survey data are a critical enabler of effective project design and implementation in support of the World Bank’s twin goals. The fact that such data were not published or made available to major development partners between 2012 and 2019 was a serious shortcoming that warranted priority attention from the World Bank. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Overview xx 1 | Country Context and World Bank Group Strategy and Program FY11–19 This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) reviews the effectiveness of the World Bank Group’s partnership with Albania during fiscal years (FY)11–19.1 The report discusses the appropriateness of the Bank Group’s strategic focus in the country context and in relation to national goals, including joining the European Union (EU). It discusses the progress made in the various areas of the Bank Group’s focus and the extent to which the Bank Group’s program contributed substantively to that progress through its various instruments and activities, including financing, advisory services and analytics (ASA), policy dialogue, and coordination with other development partners. It also assesses whether the program as a whole made a tangible contribution to Albania’s development goals during the period. Country Context Albania emerged from the collapse of isolationist communism in the early 1990s as one of the poorest countries in Europe, but the country transitioned to a middle-income, market-oriented economy by 2008. Albania made signif- icant development progress by opening its economy and achieved significant socioeconomic development and integration into the EU. Over 2002–08, the economy grew strongly by 5.5 percent on average per year. Increased polarization among political parties has made governance more challenging. Since the 1990s, Albania has made good progress in establishing multiparty democracy. The 2013 parliamentary elections have been judged free and fair, and the government changed hands as a result. The govern- ment effectiveness indicator rose from 48 to 56 between 2011 and 2017.2 But sharp political polarization culminated in opposition parties boycotting local elections at the end of June 2019. Albania continued to perform less well on 1 control of corruption, and its index ranking stood at 42 in 2017, despite some progress from the 2011 ranking of 27. Successive governments have pursued a common vision of promoting strong, in- clusive, and sustainable economic growth and integration within the EU. In 2007, the government’s National Strategy for Development and Integration (NSDI) for 2007–13 (NSDI 1) articulated this vision and updated it in May 2016 for 2015–20 (NSDI 2; Albania 2007, 2016). These documents provide a comprehensive me- dium-term strategy for long-term growth and poverty reduction that is consis- tent with EU integration. This strategy is implemented through a medium-term budget program that requires ministries to achieve their medium-term plans consistent with the objectives of the government’s strategy. Historically strong growth slowed going into the evaluation period, prompt- ing reform to varying degrees. Rapid growth was cut short in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. By 2014, economic growth had slowed to less than 2 percent. Moreover, serious fiscal pressures and rising public debt threatened fiscal stability. The financial sector was showing increasing signs of stress, including a sharp jump in nonperforming loans (NPLs). Over 2014– 17, a new government implemented several important reforms that helped reduce macroeconomic imbalances and public sector arrears, moderate the growth of public debt, and strengthen financial sector stability.3 Economic growth revived to 3.8 percent in 2017 and an estimated 4.2 percent in 2018, moderating to 2.2 percent in 2019. However, the pace of reforms in key areas has slowed since 2017, and new areas of concern have emerged that threaten Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 1 fiscal and macroeconomic stability, including opaque but potentially large contingent liabilities from public-private partnerships (PPPs). Recent poverty trends are uncertain. Albania’s achievement of middle- income status by 2008 led to reduced poverty of 12.5 percent in that year (measured against a national poverty line) compared with 25.4 percent in 2002. However, poverty increased after the slowdown starting in 2008 and was estimated at 14.3 percent in 2012.4 Trends since then are difficult to assess because survey data after 2012 (which were published only recently) are not comparable. However, poverty is projected to have declined with the renewal of economic growth in recent years.5 2 Access to many social services—including education, health, and water and sanitation—has improved rapidly, but inequities and quality issues persist. For example, access to all levels of education has increased and now com- pares favorably with regional peers, but enrollment rates and educational attainment remain considerably lower for the bottom 40 percent of the population. Moreover, learning outcomes remain low compared with most Europe and Central Asia countries and the average for Organisation for Eco- nomic Co-operation and Development countries. In health, outcomes such as life expectancy at birth, infant and maternal mortality rates, and child malnutrition have improved in recent years, and the population is relatively healthy by regional standards. Health outcomes also compare favorably with those for peers in the Western Balkans. However, health gains have been much smaller for the poorer population and those living in rural areas. The business climate has shown some improvement despite continuing chal- lenges. The regulatory framework for business has improved in several ways, as indicated by the jump in the country’s Doing Business ranking from a low of 103 (of 190 countries) in 2013 to a high of 63 in 2018. However, the rank- ing dropped to 82 in 2019 (World Bank 2019, 2020). The private sector con- tinues to face constraints such as corruption, weak institutions to enforce the rule of law, an inadequate framework for land titling and administration, unpredictability in the policy regime (especially taxation), and infrastructure weaknesses (especially in electricity supply and road transport connectivity). More recently, the quality and relevance of labor force skills have emerged as Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group constraints for the private sector. Albania has made good progress toward its goal of joining the EU, with the start of accession negotiations now approved in principle. The EU Council formally recognized Albania as an EU candidate country in June 2014. The legal and regulatory framework and business and governance practices have been progressively aligned with EU requirements. Following initial resistance from certain EU members in 2019, the EU Foreign Affairs Coun- cil has now approved the opening of accession negotiations with Albania (to be confirmed by the European Council), subject to further preconditions on the country, notably relating to electoral reform, the rule of law, and fighting corruption. 3 Albania has also made progress addressing some aspects of gender equity, but gaps remain. In partnership with the United Nations and the EU (as part of the accession agenda), the government developed strategies and policies to achieve gender equality, and progress has been made in establishing the legal and policy framework to mainstream gender. Government agencies have gradually pre- pared to implement policies and monitor progress, including under the NSDI 2 and the National Strategy on Gender Equality, Gender-Based Violence, and Domestic Violence (2011–15). However, traditional attitudes still prevail, and gender disparities can be found in most spheres of social and economic life. The Bank Group’s Strategic Objectives Two strategy documents steered Bank Group support to Albania during the evaluation period, beginning with the FY11–14 Country Partnership Strategy (CPS). The CPS sought primarily to address key challenges to the resumption of growth after the global crisis. It focused on three strategic objectives: (i) accelerating the recovery of Albania’s economic growth through improved competitiveness, (ii) broadening and sustaining Albania’s social gains, and (iii) reducing Albania’s vulnerability to climate change. The CPS Progress Report (CPSPR), prepared in FY13 when the fiscal and financial situation had substantially deteriorated, amended the CPS program to help Albania better manage risks arising from economic vulnerability (World Bank 2013a). The FY15–19 Country Partnership Framework (CPF) was revised and ex- Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 1 tended to FY20 after the November 2018 Performance and Learning Review (PLR). The CPF is organized around three broad strategic objectives:6 (i) re- storing macroeconomic balances, (ii) creating the conditions for accelerated private sector growth, and (iii) strengthening public sector management and service delivery. It also has two cross-cutting themes: gender and EU ac- cession. The PLR extended the CPF to allow most objectives to be achieved, given the stall in reform momentum during a prolonged period leading up to and after the 2017 parliamentary elections and challenges in implement- ing an ambitious lending program (World Bank 2018b). The PLR made some adjustments in the proposed lending program and acknowledged that the International Finance Corporation (IFC) investment targets would not mate- rialize, given the low levels of foreign direct investment expected.7 4 Consolidated Framework for the Evaluation Period A mix of CPS and CPF objectives covers FY11–19, with some variation in sig- nificance over time. This CPE uses four interlinked pillars to cover the entire evaluation period (table 1.1). These four pillars structure the assessment of the Bank Group program’s relevance and efficacy in (i) addressing macroeco- nomic instability and improving financial stability, (ii) improving the busi- ness climate (including land and property registration) and infrastructure services in energy and transport, (iii) supporting water management (notably through irrigation and land and waste management), and (iv) improving the quality of service provision in education, health, social protection, and water and sanitation. This taxonomy organizes the presentation and does not rep- resent a retrofitting of strategic objectives (that is, progress against relevant CPS, CPSPR, CPF, and PLR objectives during the respective periods remain the substantive basis for the assessment), and it does not capture the evo- lution of program priorities and emphasis over the evaluation period. There are interlinks and overlaps across the four pillars, and some areas of Bank Group intervention respond to subobjectives under different pillars.8 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 5 Table 1.1. Evaluation Pillars for the FY11–19 Country Program Evaluation Pillar 1: Strengthening Pillar 3: Pillar 4: Macrofinancial Pillar 2: Improving the Improving the Management Improving the Management Quality and Public Conditions for of Land, Water, of Service Service Private Sector and the Provision in the Delivery Development Environment Social Sectors 1. Strengthening 1. Improving the 1. Reducing vulner- 1. Improving access to fiscal management business climate abilities to climate and quality of education and public service and developing change, improving services and under- delivery sustainable tour- land productivity standing labor market 2. Strengthening ism (erosion control constraints the financial sector 2. Improving land and irrigation), and 2. Improving access to and property reg- improving waste and quality of health istration management services 3. Improving ac- 3. Improving the cov- cess to and quality erage, targeting, and of infrastructure efficiency of social pro- services tection services » Energy 4. Improving access to » Roads and quality of water and sanitation services Source: Independent Evaluation Group Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 1 Bank Group Program Delivery The World Bank has been an important, though not dominant, financer of Albania’s development. Official development assistance declined over the evaluation period, with levels as low as 1.2 percent of gross national income in 2017 compared with 2.9 percent in 2011. Average annual official develop- ment assistance was $277 million over 2011–17. The World Bank accounted for about one-third of this, with average annual International Development Association and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) disbursements of $95 million during the period. The EU was, on average, the largest donor over the period, with average annual funding of $105 million during the period. Major bilateral donors included Germany 6 (12 percent of official development assistance), Switzerland (8 percent), and the United States (7 percent). Foreign direct investment inflows were broadly stable over the evaluation period at about 8 percent of gross domestic prod- uct (GDP).9 Bank Group program delivery largely matched plans during the CPS period but saw challenges during the CPF period.10 Under the CPS, the World Bank’s total lending volume was $602 million, close to the CPS baseline scenario. Under the CPF, however, the World Bank’s actual lending volumes were $882 mil- lion, about 72 percent of planned lending. In total, financing commitments of about $1.1 billion for 19 IBRD operations were approved over FY11–19. There were 34 International Development Association and IBRD projects with a total commitment of $1.4 billion, including the ongoing projects approved before the evaluation period. ASA tasks, many of which were financed by trust funds, made up an important part of the World Bank’s program. IFC investments and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) guarantees declined over the review period. IFC support included about $221 million in commitments across eight investments, but no IFC investment was made during the CPF period, except for indirect financing of a highway PPP and trade finance for a local bank. MIGA activity consisted of four guarantees totaling $349 million— three in the banking sector and one in the power sector. Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 7 1 Although the cutoff date for this Country Program Evaluation is end June 2019, it notes some   important developments up to December 2019. 2  Government effectiveness data are from the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators database at https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/worldwide-governance-indicators. 3  Between 2014 and 2017, Albania had a 36-month arrangement under the International Mon- etary Fund’s Extended Fund Facility, which was a major driver for many key reforms. 4  The Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) household surveys to measure pover- ty and inequality were discontinued after 2012 (see chapter 2), making it difficult to assess trends since then (World Bank 2014d). 5  Without household data, which are comparable over time, World Bank staff simulated pov- erty trends based on annual growth rates. Based on a poverty line of $5.50 per person per day at 2011 purchasing power parity, the poverty head count is estimated to have dropped from 39.1 percent in 2012 to 31 percent in 2017. The Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey published in December 2019 shows that the poverty rate declined from 23.7 percent in 2017 to 23.4 percent in 2018. 6  The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) supports 5 of the 12 priorities identified in the Systematic Country Diagnostic that are deemed fundamental to achieving the twin goals. 7  According to the 2018 Performance and Learning Review (PLR), International Finance Corporation investment opportunities have been constrained by (i) a lack of suitable foreign direct investment opportunities, (ii) frequent changes in the legal and regulatory framework, (iii) a weak judicial system, and (iv) excess liquidity in the banking system coupled with de- Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 1 pressed credit demand, resulting in limited prospects for International Finance Corporation financing for small and medium enterprises. 8  For example, macrofinancial stability, a central objective, will be discussed under pillar 1, examining the package of World Bank Group support for strengthening macrofinancial management and public service delivery. However, it is closely tied to specific sectors (such as energy in pillar 2 and pensions in pillar 4) because they also had a major impact on fiscal sustainability. 9  The data are from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development at https:// stats.oecd.org/. 10  Appendix C provides a detailed description of the Bank Group’s operational program, in- 8 cluding thematic decomposition. 2 | Overall Assessment of World Bank Group Strategies and Program Adequacy of Strategic Focus Bank Group strategic objectives had broad coverage. Objectives spanned fiscal management; financial sector reform; public services delivery; private sector development, land and property registration, and infrastructure ser- vices in energy and roads; water resources, land use, and solid waste man- agement; education; health; social protection; and urban water supply and sanitation. Bank Group objectives were mostly well aligned with national priorities and Albania’s needs. The priorities identified in the CPS were well aligned with those of NSDI 1, Albania’s development strategy at the time, just as the prior- ities set out in the CPF were aligned with those in NSDI 2. Both NSDIs clearly reflected Albania’s medium-term goal of EU membership. In hindsight, CPS priorities could have paid greater attention to fiscal management and finan- cial sector stability, given the emerging signs of stress in these areas. However, the Bank Group adjusted its objectives in the CPSPR two years later, when signs of growing fiscal stress and an NPL problem emerged; the new govern- ment endorsed the proposed adjustments. There were changes in emphasis across and within the CPS and CPF periods. Most notably, CPS objectives included education, but CPF objectives did not. In roads, objectives shifted from improving conditions and sustainability of investments under the CPS to strengthening public investment management (as part of the public financial management agenda) under the CPF. In fiscal management, the emphasis shifted from a focus on the governance of public expenditure under the CPS to fiscal sustainability more broadly (including arrears clearance and prevention) under the CPF. In the financial sector, the 9 CPSPR changed the CPS’s initial emphasis on stimulating credit to safe- guarding financial sector stability in the face of rising NPLs, with financial sector stability retained under the CPF. The CPF’s scope was broad, though more focused than the CPS, reflecting findings from World Bank diagnostics, including the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD). The CPF focused somewhat more on the top five most binding constraints that the SCD identified, although it continued to support a number of other sectors (for example, social protection and health) with relatively small amounts of lending and ASA (figure 2.1). Similar alignment with Bank Group diagnostics can be seen in the agenda for private sector development (see figure 3.1). In some areas, Bank Group engagement could have been more strategic, given implementation capacity and political own- ership. At the same time, given limited capacity, there was a high demand for retail-level help in developing reform strategies and road maps that could serve as platforms for broader partner support over the longer term. The Bank Group took up this role in fiscal management and the financial sector (with the International Monetary Fund [IMF]), overall management of Albania’s water resources, social protection, health, and (in the CPS) edu- cation. Other partners (particularly the EU and the United States) covered critical areas not considered a Bank Group comparative advantage or where the Bank Group was absent—notably judicial reform, crime and security, and agriculture (except for irrigation). Although Bank Group objectives were rooted in the institution’s twin goals Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 2 and national strategy, they also supported EU accession. Bank Group support facilitated alignment with EU accession requirements in numerous respects, including through regional initiatives (appendix F). Support was aimed at helping to bring global good practice to Albania, and in doing so, it also helped advance the EU accession agenda without focusing on less essential reforms to align institutions in Albania with the requirements of the EU acquis.1 The EU delegation in Tirana did not identify any areas where Bank Group support was incompatible with the EU accession goal. 10  inks between the FY11–14 CPS, the SCD, and the FY15–19 CPF Figure 2.1. L Country Partnership Strategy FY11–14 SCD 2015 Country Partnership Framework FY15–19 Focus area 1: Accelerating the recovery in Albania’s Most binding constraints Focus area 1: Restoring macroeconomic balances economic growth through improved competitiveness Restoring fiscal sustainability and maintaining 1.1. Support improved fiscal sustainability 1.1. Sound macroeconomic management financial stability 1.2. Provide strengthened public investment and improved PFM management in transport sector Establishing a high-quality business environment 1.2. Improved business regulations and 1.3. Support improved financial stability Providing clean, efficient, equitable, and financially reduced compliance cost for the private sector sustainable energy Focus area 2: Creating conditions for accelerated 1.3. Improved and enhanced financial sustainability of private sector growth Formalizing and enhancing inclusiveness and sustainability infrastructure services in roads, energy, and irrigation of the land market 2.1. Contribute to improved business environment Focus area 2: Broadening and sustaining Albania’s Enhancing governance, transparency, and accountability 2.2. Sustainable tourism development social gains of government 2.3. Support enhanced energy security, efficiency, and supply 2.1. Improved access to and quality Increasing the quality and inclusiveness of labor of education services market engagement 2.4. Provide expanded and inclusive land/ property registration 2.2. Improved access to quality health services and Improving quality, access, and relevance of education the efficiency of public spending and training systems 2.5. Contribute to increased productivity and sustainability of land use 2.3. Improved targeting and effectiveness Improving efficiency, access, and quality of public of social protection services delivery Focus area 3: Strengthening public sector management and service delivery Focus area 3: Reducing Albania’s vulnerabilities Improving inclusiveness of access to financial markets 3.1. Support increased efficiency of public service delivery to climate change Enhancing effectiveness and efficiency of 3.2. Support improved equity and access to 3.1. Improved conservation, management, social protection systems social protection services and efficient use of water resources Ensuring sustainable use of natural resources 3.3. Contribute to increased efficiency and access and stewardship of the environment of health services in hospital sector 3.2. Decreased vulnerability to natural and artificial disasters Improving quality, efficiency, and equity of health services 3.4. Provide enhanced coverage of water and sanitation services Source: Independent Evaluation Group. Note: The most critical constraints in SCD are in red. CPF = Country Partnership Framework; CPS = Country Partnership Strategy; FY = fiscal year; PFM = public financial management; SCD = Systematic Country Diagnostic. 11 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group Program Flexibility The Bank Group showed responsiveness to changing conditions, refocusing its program to match government reform commitment and implementa- tion capacity. Bank Group support responded to events and capitalized on opportunities that arose. For example, the Bank Group responded rapidly to severe flooding in 2013, promptly redeploying funds from an existing project to provide emergency relief. Before the 2013 elections, the World Bank had prepared development policy financing (DPF) to support policy measures to address the effects of the euro area crisis but withheld it for lack of stronger evidence of government commitment to take the necessary mea- sures, notably on fiscal consolidation. In mid-2013, the new government want- ed the Bank Group to play a close advisory role, and the World Bank was very responsive. Among other initiatives, the World Bank played a central role in a conference to formalize government reform priorities and provided analytical follow-up to the in-depth FY14 Public Finance Review (PFR). With increased support from other partners (notably a new three-year IMF-supported pro- gram), the World Bank approved a programmatic DPF series starting with the FY14 Public Finance Development Policy Loan (DPL). The second operation in the series was changed to an FY15 Public Finance Policy-Based Guarantee to better leverage available resources given the financing landscape at the time. When signs of implementation difficulties and wavering commitment emerged in the run-up to the 2017 elections and afterward, the World Bank scaled back new lending to focus on strengthening portfolio management. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 2 Adequacy of Program Design Bank Group program design built on synergies among components. The program capitalized on complementarities among its various areas of focus (table 1.1). For instance, the World Bank’s program in support of strength- ening macrofinancial management and public service delivery (pillar 1) cultivated links among its subcomponents (fiscal and financial) and with other areas of engagement under pillars 2 and 4. Measures to stop the accu- mulation of government payment arrears to the private sector, an important element of the World Bank–supported public financial management, also 12 helped address contributors to the NPL problem that afflicted commercial banks. Progress on fiscal consolidation also helped reduce crowding out of pri- vate investment, spurring progress under pillar 2. Measures to reduce time and inconvenience in accessing essential public services under the citizen-centric service delivery initiative were designed to also improve the ease of doing business and thus help private sector development. World Bank–supported re- forms under pillar 1 to improve the financial viability of the energy sector and strengthen public investment planning and implementation in the roads sec- tor also worked to strengthen energy security and road connectivity. Finally, pension reform, a key item in the fiscal consolidation agenda, also contributed to improving the efficiency and equity of the social protection system under pillar 4. In all of these areas, World Bank DPF, investment project financing (IPF), and ASA worked in a complementary fashion. Results frameworks at the program level were complex and had other chal- lenges. CPS and CPF results frameworks, including the way in which they were adjusted in the CPSPR and the PLR, generally embodied logical theories of change. However, there were several shortcomings. For example, the CPS’s reasoning that IFC credit lines with commercial banks would help expand credit to the private sector was based on the flawed assumption that the binding constraint to credit growth was banks’ insufficient liquidity. Be- fore its revision in the CPSPR, the CPS results framework was too complex, embodying about 60 results indicators. The indicator “local banks’ portfolios are stronger, more efficient, and diversified” did not specify a time frame, baseline, or method for calculating efficiency. Although the CPF results Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group framework was more streamlined, it still needed substantial adjustment in the PLR. Several indicators had to be dropped or modified, often because results indicators were deemed insufficiently clear or precise or were insuf- ficiently attributable to the updated program,2 or because targets would not be achieved during the (extended) CPF period. And several of the outcomes sought in both the CPS and CPF results frameworks were more output ori- ented (many reflecting project indicators) than the higher-order outcomes closely related to improvements in welfare. The program was an appropriate and well-sequenced blend of ASA and financing. Good-quality analytical work generally informed financing opera- tions, as shown by the World Bank’s support for public finance management, 13 pension reform, financial sector reform, health, and social protection, among others. In the financial sector, a joint World Bank–IMF Financial Sector As- sessment Program Update in FY14 provided the diagnostic underpinnings for a detailed road map for reform that was supported by DPF, specific advisory projects, and further analytical work. In most sectors, the choice of instru- ments was tailored well to the circumstances. For example, when IPF support for land registration yielded limited results, the World Bank appropriately elected to continue its involvement using ASA. However, in some areas, greater emphasis on policy-level and institutional support would have been desirable and would have responded to stakeholder demand. In water and sanitation, for instance, World Bank support was too narrow given the challenges that Albania faces and the very significant re- forms under way to overhaul the institutional setup for water resource man- agement. This support focused principally on infrastructure improvements in the coastal city of Durres and did not sufficiently address substantial insti- tutional weaknesses plaguing the sector as a whole, including large capac- ity gaps in the vast majority of water and wastewater utilities. Although it continued to provide limited advisory support and capacity building (at the regional and national levels),3 the World Bank stepped back from the focal development partner role it had played in the preceding decade. In energy, Bank Group involvement during the evaluation period was broad ranging, covering virtually every facet of the sector—the oil industry, small and large hydropower, thermal power generation, sector structure and unbundling, tariffs and financial viability, energy efficiency, regional interconnected- Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 2 ness, and establishment of an Albania power exchange. However, in several stakeholders’ view, the Bank Group did not do enough initially to articulate and build consensus for a clear and comprehensive road map for reform that could serve as a platform for coordinated support by all donors. This began to change in the latter years, notably with the World Bank’s pivotal role in preparing and supporting implementation of a financial recovery plan for the sector. In a few cases, Bank Group instruments did not adequately cover areas essential to the achievement of its strategic objectives. For example, there was arguably not enough alignment between the CPF objective of reducing households’ out-of-pocket spending on health and the FY15 Health Services 14 Improvement Project. In its restructured form, the project—the World Bank’s only instrument in health during the latter years of the evaluation period— narrowed its focus to hospital modernization, dropping the former reference in its project development objective to increasing financial access to health services, although it continued to provide institutional support to the Health Insurance Fund. Similarly, World Bank project support for land registration did not sufficiently consider that unresolved factors were likely to under- mine the deliverability and quality of the results it sought. These unresolved factors included (i) the absence of a reliable and unified underlying database accurately depicting land plot location and dimensions, (ii) pending claims for compensation or restitution for expropriation during the communist era, and (iii) disputed claims on land in the valuable southern coastal zone, including those resulting from informal settlements. Previous efforts to consolidate the portfolio into fewer, larger projects left the early years of the evaluation period with a legacy of complex “Christ- mas trees” that tried to cover too much. Key examples included the FY05 Integrated Coastal Zone Management and Cleanup Project (ICZMCP), the FY07 Land Administration and Management Project (LAMP), and the FY06 Education Excellence and Equity Project. With project closings, these larger projects helped substantially consolidate the portfolio just before and in the early years of the evaluation period. Between the end of FY09 and the end of FY12, the active portfolio went from 18 to 9 projects. However, these more complex projects inevitably encountered implementation difficulties, requir- ing restructuring and closing date extensions. The ICZMCP, for example, was Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group restructured four times (though one was related to an emergency), and the closing date was extended by five years. Project design often did not sufficiently reflect political economy factors. In the power sector, use of a regional adaptable program loan instrument responded well to sector investment needs within a consistent regional ap- proach, but the implementation arrangements did not allow for the shift in responsibilities among actors when the sector was unbundled. In the health sector, the design of the FY15 Health Services Improvement Project did not sufficiently account for political appointee and senior staff turnover, the Ministry of Health restructuring, and realignments of responsibilities across government agencies. Arguably, the project did not sufficiently heed lessons 15 from the implementation experience of its predecessor, the FY06 Health Sys- tem Modernization Project. There was also insufficient calibration of some of the reforms supported by the World Bank during the evaluation period to the reality in the field (notably the introduction of performance-based primary health care provider payment formulas). Intellectual and Analytical Contributions Albania-specific ASA delivered by the Bank Group included integrative re- ports and facilitation work, along with in-depth sector-specific analyses and advisory initiatives. Integrative reports included the FY11 Country Economic Memorandum, FY14 policy notes, the FY14 PFR, and the FY15 SCD. In addi- tion to formal integrative analytic work, the World Bank’s informal facilita- tion and guidance work responded to government demand. Before the 2013 elections, the Bank Group had prepared a series of policy notes intended to orient the incoming government. Based on this entry point, the newly elected government asked the World Bank to help facilitate its efforts to set priorities. This priority-setting exercise provided the foundations for NSDI 2 (the government’s development strategy) and upstream inputs to the Bank Group’s SCD. Sector-specific ASA were prepared in most of the Bank Group’s areas of intervention, including public finance, the financial sector, pensions and social assistance, energy, health, and land administration. ASA were of good technical quality and helped articulate options for reform (which were carried through successfully in some cases) and build imple- Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 2 mentation capacity. The CPE assessed analytic work based on (i) technical quality and (ii) the extent to which it underpinned reforms and supporting Bank Group operations—as determined based on stakeholder interviews and observation of reforms implemented. ASA were generally of high technical quality and geared to diagnosing and setting out reform options and address- ing related issues, including strengthening implementation capacity. Exam- ples of this can be seen in the financial sector and in pensions and social assistance (box 2.1). World Bank ASA focused on salient policy issues and provided the foundations for lending, even in areas with poorer track records of reform implementation, such as health. 16  dvisory Services and Analytics to Prepare for Reforms and Box 2.1. A Underpin Operations In the financial sector, the fiscal year (FY)14 Financial Sector Assessment Program Up- date (prepared jointly with the International Monetary Fund) provided the overarching framework for the financial sector reforms implemented starting in 2014. These reforms were aimed at resolving nonperforming loans, strengthening regulation and supervision of bank and nonbank financial institutions, and strengthening key regulatory institutions’ capacity to execute their mandates. The World Bank supported these reforms through a series of two development policy financing operations and parallel advisory tasks focused on specific issues (for example, strengthening the capacity of the nonbank financial institutions regulator). Regarding pensions and social assistance, long-standing World Bank engagement through advisory services and analytics (ASA), coupled with investment project financing beginning well before the evaluation period, helped articulate and build consensus on reform needs and strengthen the institutional capacity of the Social Insurance Institute and other agencies involved, including the development of a central registry of con- tributors and beneficiaries. This engagement, which also supported public debate on reforms, helped prepare the groundwork for significant reforms beginning in 2014, when a political window of opportunity emerged, supported by a series of two public finance development policy financing operations. Reforms included enacting a new pensions strategy and law (which strengthened the contributory program to reduce fiscal costs over time by more closely linking benefits to contributions and time in the labor market); Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group increasing the retirement age (reducing gender disparities); introducing a social pension program to protect poor, elderly people without pension rights; and capping budget transfers to the pension system. Regarding social assistance, reforms included chang- es in the beneficiary selection mechanism by introducing the Unified Scoring Formula (based on a proxy means test) calibrated using Living Standards Measurement Survey data. Although the reform agenda remains unfinished, World Bank ASA played a key role in laying the groundwork for reform and World Bank lending supporting it. ASA in other sectors helped articulate reforms and guide their implementation. In health, an FY06 policy note provided in-depth diagnosis and mapped out an agenda for reform, providing the knowledge underpinnings for an investment project financing operation approved before the evaluation period and an FY11 social sector development policy 17 (continued)  dvisory Services and Analytics to Prepare for Reforms and Box 2.1. A Underpin Operations (continued) loan. The FY14 Public Finance Review helped guide the newly elected administra- tion’s fiscal consolidation efforts in 2014. In energy, a recent diagnostic study on the distributional impact of electricity pricing reform supported use of the Unified Scoring Formula to determine poor households’ eligibility for energy cash benefits to mitigate the impact of the electricity tariff increase. In land administration, the World Bank recently completed an integrated land administration road map that draws attention to the importance of consolidating the agencies responsible for land administration and definitively resolving competing claims on land—two long-standing constraints to progress. Despite the government’s favorable reception, it is too early to judge wheth- er the recommendations provided by the ASA will be followed. Important analytical contributions were made through regional ASA. The World Bank made ample use of regional and subregional ASA to update its country knowledge in key areas, particularly in the latter part of the evaluation period. For example, the World Bank gathered knowledge on the status of the Roma minority (a key vulnerable group in Albania) in the Western Balkans in a regional study published in March 2019. In education (from which the World Bank exited under the CPF) and health, Albania country case studies within regional studies allowed the World Bank to maintain its knowledge. Regional studies were a useful and cost-effective complement to a small country program with a limited budget. The long transition from the Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 2 to the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) survey instrument (concluded only recently) impeded poverty monitoring and design of reforms after 2012. With World Bank support, LSMS rounds in 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2012 helped track progress in reducing poverty and promoting shared pros- perity, and in access to, use, and cost of many public services. The govern- ment stopped further LSMS rounds after 2012 on the understanding that, in line with its EU accession goal, it would begin implementing EU-supported SILC survey instruments (World Bank 2014d). However, the transition led to a long period when household survey data were unavailable because the SILC survey results for 2017 and 2018 were not published until December 2019. This period without data has had far-reaching implications, such as prevent- 18 ing updated analytical work to guide the design of reforms. Most notably, the World Bank and other stakeholders could not track poverty head count and distributional gains and losses for a long time, and these are essential to gauging progress toward the twin goals. Intra–Bank Group Synergies There were several cases of effective collaboration and complementarity across the Bank Group. Both the CPS and the CPF sought World Bank–IFC synergies, notably in infrastructure (national and municipal), energy, and the business environment, and collaboration on business climate reforms was constructive. World Bank–IFC synergies were apparent, for instance, on metrology and tech- nical standards: A World Bank project supported an upgrade of Albania’s metrol- ogy and technical standards infrastructure, while a complementary IFC program provided direct assistance to small businesses in complying with the standards. In addition, the World Bank and IFC collaborated to support authorities in meet- ing the prior actions (on the business environment) of the Competitiveness DPL and (on the bankruptcy law) of the Financial Sector DPL. In the financial sector, World Bank efforts to support and build institutional capacity for systemic re- forms (for example, strengthening regulation and supervision) were well com- plemented by MIGA efforts to encourage responsible expansion of individual commercial banks’ lending portfolios, IFC efforts to strengthen bank governance and lending practices, and support for specific initiatives (for example, prepara- tion of the bankruptcy law). In the energy sector, IFC efforts to support the small Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group hydropower producer segment complemented World Bank support for upgrad- ing large dams and plants. Even in health, IFC advisory support for structuring a PPP seeking higher and more uniform quality standards in diagnostic laboratory services complemented World Bank support for hospital reform. Convening and Development Partner Collaboration The architecture for government-donor coordination evolved over the evaluation period, but its effectiveness was uneven and has deteriorated. Through most of the evaluation period, a department reporting to the Coun- 19 cil of Ministers was responsible for channeling and coordinating the support from about 20 development partners active in Albania. No apex forum for government-donor coordination existed. Until 2013, government-donor coordination in specific sectors and thematic areas was conducted in sec- tor working groups that varied in frequency and quality of convening. After 2013, the government revamped the architecture and put a set of broad thematic forums in place known as Integrated Policy Management Groups (several of which encompassed more focused thematic subgroups) to bring together government and donor representatives to develop, help implement, and monitor sector and theme-specific programs and reforms in line with government priorities. However, implementation of this new architecture has lagged, and the landscape is a patchwork of coordination forums—some exclusively among donors—that vary in effectiveness. The Bank Group found ways to coordinate effectively with partners in its areas of engagement, despite variations in effectiveness of formal coordina- tion forums. Bank Group coordination with other partners was good in fiscal management, the financial sector, and land administration, and division of labor generally positioned it at the policy and strategy level. A similar pat- tern could be seen in water resource management, irrigation, forestry, and land use management. In the social sectors, the World Bank provided intel- lectual leadership and led the policy dialogue, and coordination and collab- oration with other partners was good. Coordination with other partners was effective regarding business climate, energy, road transport, and urban water Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 2 and sanitation, but Bank Group strategic leadership was less evident. Appen- dix E contains more details. Implementation and Results Portfolio-level results were acceptable, but political economy factors often delayed implementation. Project outcome ratings during the evaluation period were above the World Bank average but well below the average for the Europe and Central Asia Region, and sustainability risks were significant (appendix C). In addition, there was a noticeable pattern of slower-than-expected IPF implementation because of political economy factors (for example, ten- 20 sions between parties in the ruling coalition that led to frequent turnover of ministerial appointments) and capacity deficits (for example, insufficient experience and expertise in managing large and complex procurement packages). In fact, political, governance, and capacity constraints were major implementation risks identified at the project appraisal stage (appendix G). About 68 percent of the projects (13 of 19 approved during the evaluation period) rated political and governance risks as substantial or high. Similarly, about 80 percent of the projects (15 of 19) rated capacity risks as substantial or high. Projects frequently required closing date extensions and, in many cases, fundamental restructuring. Of the 29 projects (excluding DPF operations) that were active during at least part of the review period, 16 (55 percent of the portfolio) were extended, restructured, or both. One factor that caused delays or complications and was common to several projects was a lack of clarity in property rights to land required. Moreover, the fallout from an Inspection Panel investigation before the evaluation period contributed to implementation delays by caus- ing World Bank staff to become extra cautious and risk averse. Additionally, IFC’s Compliance Advisor and Ombudsman investigated complaints relating to four IFC energy projects in Albania for small hydropower installations,4 but these complaints have not affected overall project implementation. Contributions to Capacity Development Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group Institutional capacity is a major constraint to development and the imple- mentation of important reforms. Albania exhibits the shallow institutional capacity that is characteristic of many smaller states. A major decentraliza- tion drive after a consolidation of local government units in 2014 (which multiplied municipalities’ functions) has intensified the constraint. The high and complex standards to which Albania’s EU accession drive requires align- ing the country is another factor, as is the frequent turnover of people in the public sector at both the political and technical level (which outmigration has accentuated). Bank Group initiatives to help develop institutional capacity have seen mixed results. Bank Group interventions had significant capacity-building content in virtually every area of engagement. Some of these initiatives, such 21 as those on pensions and the Albanian Financial Supervisory Authority, have already had some success, but others have not. The Road Economic Decision Model (RED) to help municipalities and the Albanian Development Fund pri- oritize investments in regional and local roads networks was implemented in 2016, but it requires adjustments in RED formatting due to territorial reform and changes in municipality jurisdiction after the June 2019 elections. The health management information system was still at the technical specifica- tions planning stage, even though the project that supports its development had been approved four years earlier. Similarly, World Bank technical assis- tance did not always address underlying political economy factors. For ex- ample, technical assistance aimed at strengthening the Ministry of Finance and Economy’s capacity to assess and track the financial implications of unsolicited, sole-sourced PPPs in the roads sector did not alter the political incentives that led to such deals in the first place. Addressing Gender Issues The absence of household survey data makes it difficult to assess the World Bank’s contribution to progress in reducing gender disparities. During both the CPS and the CPF periods, the World Bank highlighted gender issues as one aspect of the social inclusion agenda by including women, youth, and ethnic minorities (Roma and Albanian Egyptians) among the poorest and most vulnerable groups. The World Bank conducted several gender-focused studies that provided sound diagnostics of gender issues as part of its ASA Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 2 program (box 2.2) and prepared a gender-focused development policy op- eration.5 On land issues, the World Bank used Umbrella Facility for Gender Equality grants to convene two conferences that developed action plans to improve gender equity. As a result, the German Agency for International Co- operation is executing complementary capacity-building initiatives to train notaries in specific actions to ensure equitable rights for women. World Bank operations to improve access to and delivery of basic social services (such as its health and education projects) and the World Bank–supported social assistance reforms (which focused on vulnerable groups) are likely to have reduced gender vulnerability and obstacles to inclusion. However, overall monitoring was weak because almost no data have been available since the 22 time of the LSMS discontinuation. Therefore, it is not possible to establish reliable links between progress in gender equality and World Bank support.6  aising Awareness on Gender Issues through Advisory Services Box 2.2. R and Analytics Relevant work under the Country Partnership Strategy includes an in-depth analysis of the poverty gender gaps based on the 2012 Living Standards Measurement Survey. A policy brief for the new government in 2013 discussed the vulnerabilities of women, Roma, and Albanian Egyptians. Persistent gender disparities identified included differ- ences in educational achievement (girls outperformed boys), differences in labor force participation rates and wages, limited agency and property rights for women, and significant levels of domestic violence. This brief also presented possible policy options to address vulnerabilities and listed World Bank projects that could address gender disparities. During the Country Partnership Framework period, the World Bank prepared another gender policy note focused on gender gaps in access to economic opportunities by using inputs from its analytical work under the jobs and growth agenda (World Bank 2016b). The note discussed the barriers and disincentives to employment and entre- preneurship for women and estimated that differences in labor market participation rates between men and women implied potential losses in gross income per capita of almost 20 percent. Proposed policy areas for intervention include improving access to assets and inputs, providing affordable child and elder care, and increasing women’s Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group employability through skills training and removing labor market barriers. Source: Independent Evaluation Group. 23 1 The conditions and timing of the candidate’s adoption, implementation, and enforcement of   all current European Union (EU) rules. 2  For example, the PLR indicated that three investment project financing loans—to cover subnational finance and governance, integrated land management, and jobs and skills, respec- tively—were to be dropped (World Bank 2018b). The government, under pressure to reduce debt, was to focus instead on scaling up some ongoing activities like social assistance mod- ernization, dam safety, water resources, and irrigation projects. 3  An example of advisory support and capacity building is the Water Sector Financing Frame- work, which was produced with World Bank support. 4  Two of these cases were satisfactorily resolved, another is close to resolution, and the last is still open. 5  This development policy financing, approved in October 2019, is the first gender-focused oper- ation. The World Bank supported the government of Albania in undertaking a reform program to promote gender equality in access to economic opportunities centered on three pillars: (i) improving women’s access to assets, (ii) leveling the playing field to enhance labor market op- portunities for women, and (iii) strengthening institutional arrangements for gender-informed policy making. 6  Despite the fact that the LSMS was discontinued, the government has developed several instruments to monitor gender outcomes. The World Bank and other partners have supported these efforts, which include Albania Demographic and Health Survey 2017–18 (INSTAT, IPH, and ICF 2018), 2018 National Population Survey, Violence Against Women and Girls in Albania Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 2 (INSTAT 2019a), Women and Men in Albania, 2019 (INSTAT 2019d), and Gender Equality Index for the Republic of Albania 2020 (INSTAT 2019b). 24 3 | Developments and World Bank Group Contributions in Specific Areas This chapter reviews developments and Bank Group contributions under the four evaluation pillars. Each section describes (i) specific Bank Group ob- jectives and their relevance, including results framework quality; (ii) instru- ments deployed and design quality; and (iii) program implementation and contribution to results sought, concluding with an outcome rating. The basis for outcome assessment is progress made toward relevant CPS, CPSPR, CPF, and PLR objectives as measured against indicators in the combined results framework (appendix D). Strengthening Macrofinancial Management and Public Service Delivery Fiscal Management and Public Service Delivery Under this area, the Bank Group sought to (i) improve public financial man- agement, (ii) promote fiscal consolidation with the aim of reducing public debt and creating fiscal space, and (iii) improve access to and delivery of public services for citizens. The relative emphasis on these objectives varied over the evaluation period. In 2010–11, weaknesses in public financial man- agement were pronounced. Growing fiscal pressures were increasingly man- aged through discretionary midyear expenditure cuts, which led to payment arrears of 0.7 percent of GDP to the private sector. The CPS correctly sought to address weaknesses in budget formulation and implementation but did not directly promote fiscal consolidation, despite emerging signs of distress. As the macroeconomic situation deteriorated, the Bank Group appropriately revised its objectives in the CPSPR to instill fiscal discipline and control the 25 deficit.1 The fiscal stance remained a central concern in the CPF program, along with public investment management in the roads sector. The CPF also sought to improve transparency and convenience for citizens in accessing key public administrative services, an important element in the agenda of the new government that took office in late 2013. In support of the first two of these areas, the World Bank used an appropriate mix of lending and technical assistance, strengthened by relevant analytical work. Development policy operations—the FY14 Public Finance DPL and the FY15 Public Finance Development Policy Grant—supported the govern- ment’s fiscal consolidation efforts, including reforms in the pension system and the power sector. IPF complemented DPF in key related sectors that had been important contributors to fiscal imbalances (such as power, roads, and pensions). A technical assistance program that spanned the entire evalu- ation period supported improved public financial management, including two rounds of the Integrated Planning System Multi-Donor Trust Fund and technical assistance on pensions. Relevant analytics, including the FY14 policy notes and the FY14 PFR, helped orient government reform priorities and World Bank support. The World Bank’s program was flexible, responsive to the country’s needs, and calibrated to government reform commitments. When government commitment to reform was seen to be wavering, the World Bank scaled back its lending; conversely, when the government showed commitment, it expanded the program. Thus, when fiscal discipline was at risk in 2012 and Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 the government appeared unwilling to take corrective measures, the World Bank canceled planned growth DPLs. However, when the new government showed commitment to reform (for example, beginning in FY14), the World Bank–supported program was scaled up substantially. The World Bank’s will- ingness to convert a planned public finance DPL into a policy-based guaran- tee demonstrated its flexibility in the choice of instruments to best meet the government’s needs. World Bank support strengthened the medium-term budget process and financial management information system. The World Bank supported the rollout of the treasury single account and the initiation of tax e-filing and e-procurement. Efforts were also made to strengthen institutional capacity 26 for investment planning in the road sector. Toward fiscal consolidation, the World Bank supported design and implementation of an arrears clearance and prevention strategy, reforms in taxation to boost revenues,2 pension reforms to improve the system’s financial sustainability, and energy sector reforms to improve financial viability, including adjustment of tariffs toward cost recovery levels. Much of this work served as inputs to or complemented the three-year IMF-supported arrangement approved in 2014. Progress in reforms has stalled to some extent since 2017, so overall results under public financial management and fiscal consolidation are mixed. Pub- lic financial management still suffers from considerable weaknesses, as seen from the persistently large divergence between planned and actual spending. Progress in strengthening the public investment program in the road sec- tor was minimal. Significant fiscal consolidation equivalent to 4 percentage points of GDP was implemented between 2014 and 2017, and the growth of public debt moderated but remained more than 70 percent of GDP. After 2017, payment arrears began to accumulate again, though more slowly. New areas of concern emerged that could undermine fiscal stability, including increased reliance on inadequately regulated off-budget PPPs (notably in roads) that give rise to opaque contingent liabilities. The World Bank sup- ported the government to monitor PPPs through a public financial manage- ment technical assistance project (FY18–20) and helped publish its first PPP monitoring report in December 2019.3 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group Important gains were achieved in improving the efficiency of delivery of some public services, although this remains a work in progress. The World Bank supported this area through its ongoing FY16 Citizen-Centric Service Delivery Project, which sought to overhaul facilities and processes to allow quicker and more convenient access to key public services (such as mo- tor vehicle registration, health insurance cards, and processing of old-age pensions), including improved access to government services in remote areas for vulnerable groups such as the Roma. The project supported the establish- ment of one-stop service centers, citizen feedback mechanisms, improved information provision, and online service provision. Through the project, rapid progress was achieved in shortening steps and procedures for 100 business processes and in the development of online services—all services are now 27 available online through the e-Albania portal. Preliminary survey results cited in the PLR suggest that citizens have already benefited in convenience and time saved. The extent to which the World Bank achieved its fiscal management and public service delivery objectives is rated moderately satisfactory. The World Bank supported progress toward significant fiscal consolidation after 2014, but the situation remains fragile, and public debt remains high. Important reforms to improve public financial management are progressing more slowly than expected. Good progress is being made toward improving the delivery of public services, though it is too early to assess results because the World Bank project is still under implementation. The Financial Sector The Bank Group program’s initial focus on credit expansion to the private sec- tor shifted to safeguarding financial stability. The twin objectives in the finan- cial sector were to strengthen the banking system’s capacity to increase credit to the private sector—especially to micro, small, and medium enterprises— and to bolster the capacity of financial institutions (bank and nonbank) to withstand the stresses arising from deleveraging and contagion from foreign banks, and the growing volume of NPLs. The CPS (FY11–14) emphasized the first of these objectives, and the focus shifted to the second objective, starting with the FY13 CPSPR as conditions in the financial sector deteriorated. These objectives, including the shift in focus, were well aligned with pre- Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 vailing conditions and reflected government priorities. The growth of credit to the private sector had slumped from 32 percent in 2008 to 10 percent by 2011, posing a threat to economic recovery. Financial stability was a less prominent concern on the eve of the CPS period, even though the volume of NPLs had grown from 6.7 percent of total loans in 2008 to 14 percent by the end of 2010. The CPS arguably understated emerging risks. As balance sheets deteriorated further,4 objectives in the CPSPR were revised to address risks to financial stability. The Bank Group’s response combined financing and guarantees, technical assistance, and analytics in a coherent package. Two development policy operations in FY14 and FY17 addressed policy reforms targeting funda- 28 mental weakness in the financial sector, including the resolution of NPLs. These interventions were complemented by diagnostic analytical work and substantial technical assistance to strengthen financial institutions and the legal and regulatory framework. ASA were a crucial part of the support. Advisory services included technical assistance to (i) the Bank of Albania to help develop a road map for expedit- ing the resolution of NPLs and for resolving distressed banks in accordance with international best practice; (ii) the Albanian Financial Supervisory Authority to bolster its operational and financial autonomy to regulate nonbank financial institutions, especially investment funds; (iii) improve the framework for deposit insurance, extend its coverage to all legal entities, and augment the capacity of the deposit insurance agency; and (iv) strengthen the regulatory and supervisory framework for savings and credit associations. Additionally, commercial banks received IFC technical assistance to strength- en governance and improve their ability to lend prudently. Analytical work, including the Financial Sector Assessment Program Update (FY14), identified problem areas in the financial sector and mapped out needed reforms, includ- ing those implemented through the development policy operations. IFC support to enhance bank capacity to lend to the private sector was insuf- ficiently geared to the binding constraints to private sector borrowing. IFC provided lines of credit and trade finance to selected banks to increase their capacity to lend to micro, small, and medium enterprises, and MIGA provid- ed guarantees to selected foreign banks against expropriation of mandatory Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group reserves to encourage greater lending by their local subsidiaries. However, the assumption in the CPS that providing additional liquidity to banks would automatically boost their lending proved faulty. Binding constraints on bank lending to micro, small, and medium enterprises (such as the difficulty of finding bankable projects) were insufficiently addressed. In addition, in the view of one bank, permissible borrower risk profiles under an IFC credit line were overly conservative, given the growing number of NPLs and a very liq- uid banking system. With Bank Group support, significant progress was made in strengthening the legal and regulatory framework governing bank and nonbank financial institutions. The capacity of key regulatory and supervisory institutions was strengthened. Parliament adopted a bank resolution law providing a 29 framework for resolving distressed banks in accordance with international good practice. Technical assistance from the World Bank helped establish a dedicated resolution unit in the Bank of Albania to implement the law. The framework for deposit insurance was enhanced and coverage extended to all legal entities, including small enterprises. The adoption of a new law on savings and credit associations strengthened the legal, regulatory, and supervisory framework, resulting in consolidation of the savings and credit associations sector from 106 to 13 entities by December 2017. Several mea- sures were implemented to deal with NPLs, including amending tax laws to enable NPL write-offs (which mandated write-offs after a fixed period in the lost category of NPLs) and amending the regulatory framework for private bailiffs to align their incentives with successful collateral execution. A new bankruptcy law strengthened the insolvency regime. Bank Group–supported reforms and initiatives led to improved financial system soundness and stability. The volume of NPLs declined from a peak of 23 per- cent of total loans in 2014 to 8.3 percent in January 2020. The net open position in foreign exchange as a percent of regulatory capital and the return on equity have both improved by about 3 percentage points. Although credit to the private sector has improved in recent years (at 1.7 percent in 2018), it remains tepid, and credit as a share of GDP remains well below its level of 10 years ago. The achievement of objectives in the financial sector is rated satisfactory. The financial system is clearly in better shape and institutionally more em- powered to deal with emerging stress. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 Improving the Conditions for Private Sector Development Business Climate and Developing Sustainable Tourism Bank Group objectives displayed continuity over the evaluation period, and they began explicitly encompassing sustainable tourism development under the CPF. Four distinct objectives can be discerned, with emphasis shifting over the evaluation period. The first two—to increase satisfaction with qual- ity of regulations and to improve private sector compliance with selected EU 30 and international requirements—were pursued during the CPS period. The latter two were CPF objectives: to contribute to an improved business envi- ronment and to support sustainable tourism development. Bank Group objectives were highly relevant to the country context and aligned with the priorities set out in Albania’s development strategies. Eco- nomic growth had slowed after the global crisis and during the ensuing euro area crisis, placing renewed focus on the need to enhance competitiveness through an improved business environment and on tourism’s potential as an engine of sustainable development and economic integration. The 2007–13 NSDI 1 identified an improved business environment as one of its strate- gic priorities. Equally, a key goal under the 2014–20 NSDI 2 was to enhance competitiveness in key growth sectors, notably agriculture and tourism. Business environment improvement objectives were well aligned with key Bank Group diagnostics, including the SCD and Enterprise Surveys, and with the EU accession agenda. Result frameworks were adequate, but results indicators focused primarily on tracking outputs and insufficiently reflected private sector activity. The most critical constraints to private sector development identified in the Enterprise Surveys and the SCD were reflected in the FY11–14 CPS and the FY15–19 CPF (figure 3.1). Both the Enterprise Survey 2013 and SCD identi- fied practices of the informal sector and poor infrastructure as major con- straints to firms operating in Albania. These were reflected in CPF attention Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group to the framework for private investment, corruption, property and land reg- istration, transport (public investment management), and energy. The CPF’s emphasis on labor skills did not respond to a significant constraint that was identified in the Enterprise Survey 2013 and the SCD. However, the World Bank’s 2014 regional report, Back to Work: Growing with Jobs in Europe and Central Asia, noted that about 30 percent of the interviewed firms in Alba- nia reported skills as a major constraint, after infrastructure and corruption (Arias et al. 2014). The report argued that the education and training systems have not adapted well to the changes in skills demand. This was reflected in the Enterprise Survey 2019, in which about 1 in 10 firms identified inad- equate labor skills as among the most binding constraints (although high tax rates [21 percent] and practices of the informal sector [11 percent] were 31 identified most often as among the most binding constraints). 32 Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 Figure 3.1. Critical Constraints to Private Sector Development in Albania Enterprise Enterprise Country Partnership Strategy FY11–14 Survey 2013 SCD 2015 Country Partnership Framework FY15–19 Survey 2019 Constraints Strategy: Pillars Top 5 binding High constraints Constraints Strategy: Pillars Top 5 binding constraints constraints Pillar 2: Improved business Institutional Focus area 1: Restoring regulations and reduced weaknesses Weak and poorly macroeconomic balances Tax rates compliance costs for the Practices of informal planned sector (18%) High economic 1.2. Provide strengthened (21%) private sector: transportation dependence on public investment Infrastructure Lack of quality management in transport Practices of hydro resources for Insecure Ongoing reforms related bottlenecks (for corporate sector. IFC support to informal sector (11%) energy provision property rights to land administration and governance of develop PPPs in the road example, electricity) business inspections and real and financial Inadequately (15%) Lack of enforce- sector will contribute to Difficulties in to put in place a modern sector, which educated workforce ment leading to efficiency gains through obtaining access system for better limits firms' (9%) Limited access inefficient allocation access to private sector involvement. to land preparation of regulatory to finance (14%) of land, land uses, financing reforms prior to their Focus area 2: Creating Weak and poorly and space (density) adoption Tax administration Inadequate labor conditions for accelerated planned (13%) skills private sector growth transportation Significant Infrastructure Consolidate current (8%) informality Instability of 2.1. Contribute to improved bottlenecks (for reforms and complete Tax rates energy supply example, ongoing investments business environment. (12%) Perceptions of Corruption electricity supply, in the energy and road Property and Support expanding access corruption (8%) telecommunica- sectors, and continue land registration to finance and strengthen- Others: tions, and investments in the ing relevance of training Medium constraints Inadequate Others: transport) irrigation system Corruption (8%) system and active labor framework for Access to land (7%) Labor market private market programs Political instability investment (8%) Political instability Weak links of 2.3. Support enhanced Transportation (8%) (6%) education and Weak trade Corruption energy security, Transportation (4%) training systems with logistics and Courts (5%) labor demands facilitation efficiency, and supply Inadequately Business licenses Unclear judicial Public service Corruption 2.4. Provide expanded and permits (5%) educated workforce processes delivery and inclusive land/prop- (3%) Barriers to labor Tax administration Financial inclusion market erty registration (4%) engagement Source: World Bank 2015a, 2015b, 2015d; Enterprise Survey results for 2013 and 2019. Note: FY = fiscal year; IFC = International Finance Corporation; PPP = public-private partnership; SCD = Systematic Country Diagnostic. Bank Group support for business climate improvements blended several instruments into a credible package that capitalized on World Bank–IFC complementarity. World Bank IPF (the Business Environment Reform and Institutional Strengthening Project) active early in the evaluation period helped strengthen institutions to promote exports, while DPF later in the period supported reforms in the regulatory environment to enhance com- petitiveness. The World Bank also delivered technical assistance in several related areas. World Bank efforts were complemented by IFC advisory services, notably the International Standards and Technical Regulations Project, which helped operationalize reforms in the field. A more recent FY17 regional IFC advisory services project for the Western Balkans seeks to enhance investment policies and promotion in a harmonized manner, helping to lay the groundwork for EU accession. Nine IFC investments in the early years of the evaluation period also directly supported private sector development. However, IFC made no direct investments during the CPF period, partly because of lack of demand. Analytical work under World Bank and IFC advisory activities helped identify issues in the busi- ness environment and inform government policy and Bank Group support. Policy dialogue was facilitated through ad hoc participation in the relevant development partner working group. In all, Bank Group support was pack- aged adequately, given the primary focus on the regulatory framework and institutions, complementarities between World Bank IPF and DPF and IFC advisory services projects, and the results sought. Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group World Bank IPF supported objectives related to sustainable tourism devel- opment, given tourism’s economic potential. The NSDI 2 identified tourism as one of the key drivers of growth, job creation, and investment in Albania. The Bank Group has a track record of supporting environmental cleanup and land management, two areas with important links to sustainable coastal tourism. Two IPF operations sought to help develop tourism by support- ing the development of related infrastructure. However, the FY05 ICZMCP (which closed in FY15) and the more recent FY17 Project for Integrated Urban and Tourism Development extended well beyond tourism. Bank Group contributions substantially enhanced the quality of business regulations. The regulatory framework for business inspections and systems 33 adopted under the Business Environment Reform and Institutional Strength- ening Project has been used across the country. Substantial capacity on EU technical regulations and standards was built with IFC support under the International Standards and Technical Regulations Project.5 Joint World Bank– IFC support helped strengthen the regulatory framework, notably through the preparation of a best practice bankruptcy law. Improvements in the quality of regulations have been evidenced in Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Surveys and customized surveys (World Bank 2015b). However, challenges remain in implementing these regulations, and con- sequently private investment has yet to expand significantly. Stakeholder interviews and the recent Foreign Investors Association of Albania White Book highlight continuing problems, including frequent changes in the legal and regulatory framework, an ineffective judicial system, and inconsistencies between laws and the corresponding guidance notes (FIAA 2018). Compared with the 2015 baseline score of 66, the Doing Business distance to frontier indicator was 68.9 in 2017, below the CPF target of 74. Higher-order outcomes related to private sector development illustrate weak private sector response to ongoing reforms. A few large, one-off projects, notably the Trans Adriatic Pipeline Project and the Devoll Hydropower Proj- ect, have driven investment and growth in recent years. Exports as a share of GDP increased modestly from 29 percent in 2011 to 32 percent in 2018. Foreign direct investment inflows were broadly stable over the evaluation period—at 8.1 percent of GDP in 2011, 7.8 percent in 2017, and 8.0 percent in 2018. Foreign direct investment inflows have been concentrated in the en- Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 ergy sector (gas pipeline and hydropower) and mining sector and are limited in other tradable sectors. More troubling, however, is that private invest- ment as a share of GDP has declined steadily, from 27.7 of GDP in 2011 to 19.4 percent in 2017 and an estimated 18.4 percent in 2018 (IMF 2016, 2018). Regarding sustainable tourism development, investments in the Saranda port undertaken under the ICZMCP project contributed to increased tourist arrivals,6 though tourism was not an explicit objective at the time. However, it is too early to assess the Bank Group’s contribution under the CPF because the ongoing project, which has focused on infrastructure development so far, was approved only recently. 34 The achievement of objectives in relation to business environment and tourism development is rated moderately unsatisfactory. The objectives were well aligned with the country context and government strategies. However, despite Bank Group support, the conditions for accelerated private sector growth—an explicit higher-order objective under the CPF—are not yet in place. Land and Property Registration The Bank Group sought to improve land and property registration through- out the evaluation period, but it grappled with an underlying constraint. The CPS sought to strengthen the business climate by reducing the time for registering immovable property transactions. The CPF elevated land admin- istration to a distinct strategic objective, under which it sought to provide expanded and inclusive land and property registration. The high gender gap in land ownership justified this additional focus on gender and inclusion dimensions in land registration. Progress in this area was also important on the path to EU accession.7 Results framework quality was generally ade- quate, with results indicators reflecting progress toward objectives. The Bank Group’s objectives were of high relevance, though with a major caveat. Alba- nia’s investment climate was undoubtedly undermined by severe weaknesses in the land sector, including in property registration and in the sustainable and productive use of land for investments. However, numerous competing claims to land and property—a very sensitive area in which the World Bank has not been directly involved—have remained unresolved, and this has been Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group a key impediment to improving land administration. Until the government adopts a legal framework that provides definitive solutions to informal set- tlements and property restitution and compensation claims, it is difficult to see how investment and economic growth can be promoted effectively. Bank Group projects in this area proved too complex. The FY07 LAMP was the principal lending instrument. There were also land registration compo- nents in the FY05 ICZMCP and in the ongoing FY15 Environmental Services Project. However, the two earlier IPF operations had multiple components across sectors and thus were too complex, as recognized by project restruc- turings and Implementation Completion and Results Report findings. To- gether with other factors,8 this complexity led to implementation difficulties 35 and a need to restructure the projects significantly. In the ICZMCP, the land registration component was dropped entirely. LAMP was initially designed with both urban planning and land registration components based on the reasoning that improving land registration would create an environment for more effective urban land use planning. Although the project underwent ma- jor restructuring,9 the land registration component was retained and focused on introducing computerized data management at the Immovable Property Registration Office (IPRO) and its branches, technical capacity building for IPRO staff, and digitizing and updating property registration records. Insufficient consideration of land rights data accuracy and institutional issues detracted from the relevance of design of initial World Bank lending. The Security of Tenure and Registration of Immovable Property Rights LAMP component did not pay enough attention to the quality of the land rights data obtained from previous EU, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, and US Agency for International Development projects. Frag- mented institutional arrangements in the land sector compounded the data problems further.10 Subsequently, the World Bank chose not to develop a second phase of the LAMP adaptable program loan and instead coordinated with the government of Albania and development partners (principally the EU and the German Agency for International Cooperation) to provide ASA that responded to the government’s need for guidance on land administra- tion reform strategies and policies. World Bank support helped increase property registration, but with ma- jor caveats concerning records quality and coverage. Through LAMP, more Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 than 370,000 titles (of a target of 400,000) were registered at IPRO. As of early 2019, there were about 2.4 million properties registered, representing 60 percent of the estimated 4 million properties in Albania. An estimated 75 percent of cadastral zones have been registered. However, the reliability of the underlying mapping data on which registrations are based contin- ues to be a serious constraint, and IPRO is far from achieving fully digitized operations. Most initial registration is still performed manually, and records are subsequently entered digitally. The scarcity of digitization increases the potential for human error or manipulation in the manual registration forms. Additionally, most of the sensitive southern coastal zone remains unregis- tered partly because of political and governance issues related to the consid- 36 erable tourism development potential in this region. The lack of progress on property registration here is a significant constraint to economic develop- ment in the area. World Bank support helped reduce transaction times (and thus business compliance costs) and strengthen the institutional setup (with other part- ners). IPRO now has nine fast-track services with a 48-hour turnaround ser- vice standard for transactions like transfer of property, obtaining a property certificate, and providing documentation for loan collateral (registration of immovable property transactions reportedly required 30 days in 2009). How- ever, initial registration of unregistered property still takes a minimum of 25 days. The World Bank has worked effectively as the focal development part- ner, coordinating with several other partners to improve and unify geospatial data, improve gender equity in property transactions, support legislative reforms, and develop strategies for capacity building and implementation. Key among the World Bank’s inputs is the recent completion of an integrated land administration road map, which lays out options for a land reform im- plementation strategy. The government is currently considering two legisla- tive reforms recommended under the road map, involving consolidation of agencies and resolution of competing claims on land. The achievement of objectives under land registration is rated moderately un- satisfactory. The World Bank correctly remained engaged with the government on land issues despite the very challenging and politically charged environ- ment, gradually shifting support from lending to ASA. Since 2014, the World Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group Bank has assessed the obstacles to its previous efforts to support land ad- ministration, developed new approaches, and generally shown flexibility and analytical rigor in refining its approach. However, despite the World Bank’s intense engagement, results in improved quality and reliability of land regis- tration records through digitization and capacity building at IPRO are below expectations, largely because of lack of political will and vested interests. Access to and Quality of Infrastructure Services: Energy Bank Group energy sector objectives displayed broad continuity and reflected Albania’s needs and plans. CPS objectives covered improvements in domes- tic energy supply, safety and operational efficiency of hydropower dams, transmission system operation, energy efficiency, and use of cleaner energy. 37 The CPS also sought to improve cost recovery in electricity distribution. The objectives under the CPF focused on enhanced energy security, efficiency, and supply. CPS and CPF objectives were appropriate given the country’s dependence on hydropower, low financial viability of the electricity sector, and growing household electricity consumption. Bank Group energy sector objectives were aligned with those of NSDI 1 and 2. Results framework qual- ity was adequate, although results indicators were excessively output and process oriented. The Bank Group deployed a wide range of instruments that built on World Bank–IFC complementarities. Activities complemented each other, were log- ically sequenced, and were an appropriate blend of investment, policy reform, and technical and advisory support. Among other initiatives, the World Bank provided major investment support for rehabilitating the country’s hydropower facilities through the FY08 Energy Community of South East Europe Program Adaptable Program Loan 5 Dam Safety Project. Subsequently, it provided a combination of IPF (the FY15 Power Sector Recovery Project) and DPF to help promote reforms in the energy sector and improve financial viability. IFC provided early and timely support to help address legacy environmental issues in the oil and gas sector. It also complemented World Bank efforts to improve electricity production in large hydro facilities by catalyzing investment in the small hydropower producer segment through its regional renewable energy advisory program (Balkan Renewable Energy Program). In addition, IFC sought to help local commercial banks improve their lending practices and risk as- Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 sessment for renewable energy and energy efficiency project financing and to supplement banks’ resources for this purpose. Bank Group support for improving electricity production has had mixed results. The development of the Vlore thermal plant under a World Bank– supported project that closed early in the evaluation period failed to bring the plant online for technical and environmental reasons that could not have been fully anticipated. World Bank and KfW support to improve the safety of Albania’s largest hydro facilities (and thus their capacity and efficiency) has seen slow implementation, and expected results have yet to be realized. IFC contributed to the growth of small hydropower producers and helped em- bed environmental and social safeguards in projects within its purview amid 38 growing safeguard concerns in the wider small hydropower producer space. Progress in improving the efficiency of supply and cost recovery has been mixed. IFC helped strengthen local bank capacity to screen lending for residen- tial energy efficiency improvements. Albania has realized significant energy savings and a corresponding reduction in greenhouse gases, although the contribution of IFC financing was minor.11 World Bank support contributed to a reduction in technical and commercial losses (though below target). Distri- bution losses have steadily improved from 43.0 percent in 2013 to 24.3 percent in 2018, but losses remain significantly above the 2019 target of 19 percent and higher than in regional comparator countries. Collection rates have im- proved steadily, reaching 99 percent in 2019 (January–August) from 84 percent in 2012. However, intercompany arrears, though reduced, remained higher than targeted by June 2019. Overall, the electricity sector remains financially unsustainable, with low cost recovery and high system losses. World Bank analytical work informed tariff reform and helped mitigate the impact of electricity tariff increases on the most vulnerable households. The World Bank undertook a high-quality diagnostic study on the distributional impact of electricity reform. The study was an example of good practice in collaboration between the World Bank’s Energy Global Practice and its Social Protection Team. The government endorsed its recommendations and is now using the Unified Scoring Formula to determine poor households’ eligibility for energy cash benefits to mitigate the impact of the electricity tariff increase. Progress on institutional reform provided the basis for integrating Albania Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group with the larger European electricity market, but further market liberalization has been delayed. With the European Bank for Reconstruction and Develop- ment, IFC contributed to the successful opening of Albania’s oil sector and, by addressing its legacy environmental issues, helped bring it in line with the EU acquis. More generally, several requirements under the acquis are in place, including the Power Sector Law (2015) and the Law on Renewable En- ergy Sources (2017), partly because of Bank Group and other partner support. Electricity generation, transmission, and distribution activities are now sep- arated into independent companies, and an independent regulator has been established. These developments brought the sector into compliance with the southeast Europe Energy Community Treaty. However, despite extensive technical assistance, advice, and support for policy reforms and investment 39 support from the Bank Group in coordination with other partners (includ- ing the EU, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, KfW, and the US Agency for International Development), the government has not made the expected progress toward liberalizing the electricity market and setting up a functioning Albania power exchange to integrate with regional and European markets. There has been little progress in achieving compli- ance with unbundling requirements of the distribution system operator and in putting cross-border exchanges in place between the transmission system operator and neighboring transmission system operators. In energy, after the failed privatization of the distribution entity, engagement by the Bank Group stagnated as government and stakeholders assessed, deliberated and agreed on mitigating reform options.12 On balance, the extent to which objectives in the energy sector were met is rated moderately unsatisfactory. Despite modest progress in some areas, results have been slow to materialize and have fallen short of expectations. Some stakeholders have suggested that the Bank Group could show greater initiative in helping to prepare and monitor implementation of a compre- hensive reform blueprint for the sector to serve as a platform for coordinated development partner engagement. Access to and Quality of Infrastructure Services: Roads There was a justified shift in emphasis in Bank Group road sector objec- tives. The CPS sought to improve road conditions and sustainability of road investments, a highly relevant objective given the poor state of secondary Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 and local roads in the country. This was recognized in NSDI 1 and 2, and the five-year Strategy for Rural and Agriculture Development (2015–20). In the CPF, the focus shifted toward strengthening public investment management in the transport sector, seeking to improve controls on expenditure and its efficiency while emphasizing maintenance over new construction. This change in emphasis was informed by the FY14 PFR, which drew attention to the need for better investment spending controls to underpin fiscal consol- idation, and the SCD, which indicated a need for relatively greater emphasis on road maintenance. World Bank support was appropriate and logically sequenced. World Bank IPF, supported by ASA and IFC advisory services, evolved from an initial 40 focus on road construction to maintenance, regional trade facilitation, and sector policy. The World Bank supported the government’s programmatic Secondary and Local Roads Improvement Program through the FY08 Sec- ondary and Local Roads Project, responding to the government’s priorities and resource needs for road rehabilitation to improve access for rural areas. Two new IPF operations followed, replacing previous plans to use DPF to support transport reforms. The FY15 Results-Based Road Maintenance and Safety Project seeks to maintain the condition and improve the safety of pri- mary and primary-secondary road networks and strengthen road asset man- agement and safety practices. The FY18 Regional and Local Roads Connec- tivity Project addresses a wider range of issues covering physical investment, institutional development, road safety and resilience, and links to markets. Starting in FY12, IFC advised on structuring a transaction for the operation and maintenance of the Milot-Morine highway, which was successfully com- pleted in FY17. Analytical work focused notably on improving logistics in the Durres-Tirana corridor. An assessment of road assets conducted in FY16 highlighted the need to use a RED for determining the economic viability of road rehabilitation and upgrading projects and programs and to allocate medium-term budget resources clearly and transparently. Albania will be part of phase 1 of the proposed Regional Trade and Transport Facilitation project, which will support Western Balkan countries in advancing the goal of regional economic integration and integration with the EU, as laid out in the Berlin Process (appendix F). Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group World Bank support for secondary and local roads has helped improve access for communities. Under the Secondary and Local Roads Project, 118.9 kilo- meters of secondary and local roads were rehabilitated (exceeding the target of 108 kilometers), providing improved access to markets, social services, and administrative centers for 86 communities (113,608 persons), above the project’s target of 81 communities. The World Bank’s convening role also helped crowd in $386 million in financing from international financial insti- tutions for the broader Secondary and Local Roads Improvement Program, which improved 1,200 kilometers of rural roads in 12 regions and 61 munici- palities, improving mobility for more than 2 million people. However, World Bank efforts to improve management capacity, including 41 through performance-based maintenance contracts, have not yet produced significant results. The RED was developed under the FY08–13 Secondary and Local Roads Project to improve planning, prioritization, and resource allocation for road management activities. Although RED was introduced in 2016, it requires adjustments after territorial reform and changes in munic- ipality jurisdiction after the June 2019 elections, and needs adequate incen- tives and capacity to make it function effectively. Similarly, efforts to align road sector investments with the medium-term budget framework have yet to show results. The Albanian Road Authority, the main contributor to ar- rears, has not yet rolled out multiyear commitment control (IMF 2018). The FY14 ASA activity on assessment of road assets, updated in December 2014, highlighted the need to use a simple RED and informed the ongoing FY15 Results-Based Road Maintenance and Safety Project. Building on the Sec- ondary and Local Roads Project, a new approach for prioritizing road invest- ments was developed under the FY18 Regional and Local Roads Connectivity Project. However, the introduction of these simple management systems to improve maintenance planning and resource allocation, along with the development of service-level agreements setting performance criteria, face hurdles because of organizational and behavioral inertia. IFC support resulted in a PPP transaction, though it has yet to influence policy. The IFC advisory services helped conclude a concession contract for the oper- ation and maintenance of the 114-kilometer Milot-Morine highway in Sep- tember 2017, the first highway PPP and toll road in Albania. This was expected to pave the way for additional toll highways in the country. However, there is Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 no indication of a longer-term commitment to expanded use of competitively bid PPPs in the road sector. On the contrary, there has been widespread use re- cently of noncompetitive, unsolicited PPPs in roads, as discussed in the Fiscal Management and Public Service Delivery section. The World Bank’s analytical work to improve logistics performance has had limited impact so far. The study developed the idea of improving logistics performance in the Durres-Tirana corridor through a collaboration platform for user entities. However, the volume of transactions through the platform has been low so far because of limited interest from users. Based on results so far, the achievement of objectives in the roads sector is rated moderately satisfactory. Road sector projects were appropriately se- 42 quenced, first addressing the relatively greater need for secondary and local roads while increasingly emphasizing financially sustainable road asset man- agement and laying the basis for private participation in road operation and maintenance. World Bank support also contributed to improving the quality of the public investment program in the road sector and to increasing capac- ity for road sector institutions, road safety, and resilience issues, although significant results have not yet materialized in some areas. Improving the Management of Land, Water, and the Environment Focus shifted over the evaluation period from reducing climate change vulnerability to increasing the productivity and sustainability of land use. In the CPS (after some modifications in the FY13 progress report), the focus was on reducing upstream risks of erosion through improved management of wetlands, forest and pasture resources, and water catchments; improving the framework for managing water resources (including irrigation use); and strengthening solid waste disposal. These objectives were cast as contrib- uting to a broader goal of reducing vulnerability to climate change. Because the government has access to substantial grant financing for climate change mitigation, particularly from the EU, the CPF shifted from climate change toward improving the adoption of sustainable land management practices and improved irrigation and drainage and improving conditions for private Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group sector development. Objectives during both periods were highly relevant to Albania’s development goals, and they align explicitly with pillar 4 of the current NSDI 2 (to spur economic growth through sustainable use of re- sources and territorial development). The outcomes sought and indicators used were broadly adequate, although during the CPS period, they arguably did not fully reflect the extent of the World Bank’s work on improving and expanding irrigated agriculture and developing integrated water resources management policies and strategies. World Bank support was adequately geared to its objectives, supporting both investments and policy development. The World Bank executed seven lending operations and a much larger number of technical assistance ac- 43 tivities, most of which were conducted in close coordination with specific lending operations. Initiatives focusing on pollution abatement, restoring and increasing agricultural and forestry productivity, improving water resources management, and climate change impact mitigation formed major parts of the World Bank’s portfolio during the evaluation period. Much of the work on environment during the CPS period was undertaken through regional initia- tives, such as the FY09 Global Environment Facility Lake Shkoder Ecosystem Project and efforts to support Albania’s development of a climate change and disaster mitigation strategy. The World Bank had a sustained focus on rehabilitating and expanding irrigated farming and sustainable forestry and pastureland usage through the FY05 Natural Resources Development Project and its successor, the FY15 Environmental Services Project, which allowed for adaptation based on lessons learned and responsiveness to Albania’s evolving priorities and needs. The FY13 Water Resources and Irrigation Project and linked technical assistance provided a vehicle for expanding irrigated agriculture and leading advisory support for water resources policy and regulatory reform.13 The package was appropriate for influencing devel- opment policies and strategies that were being formulated for overall water sector reforms and for directly investing in productivity and was well aligned with the strategic objectives. Much of the work was performed in close coordination with other partners. The World Bank worked closely and extensively with other donors to support the evolution of integrated water resources management and sustainable forestry. Through trust funds, the Swedish International Development Co- Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 operation Authority financed much of the World Bank’s advisory and techni- cal assistance work on river basin management, integrated water resources management, forest management, and institutional capacity building. Coor- dination with other donor partners (principally the EU) for urban waste man- agement investments typically involved parallel financing initiatives, with the World Bank financing portions of infrastructure that depended on coordinated investments by other donors and the government to be fully functional. The World Bank has been broadly successful in achieving environmental sustainability objectives. Through the 2005–11 Natural Resources Devel- opment Project, erosion was reduced by 220,000 tons, and 129,000 tons of carbon were sequestered, significantly exceeding the original project targets. 44 Forest incomes rose by 8 percent in the 251 communes in the project area, and agricultural incomes from pasturelands climbed 28 percent as a result of adopting more sustainable land use practices. Albania was a pioneer in carbon sequestration, being one of the first to do so on eroded lands. The current Environmental Services Project is on track to further increase upland incomes and expand sustainable forestry and pastureland management. Much of the World Bank’s successful support for disaster mitigation was reactive. The World Bank responded well to emergency requests from nat- ural disasters. After severe flooding in 2013, the LAMP was restructured to reallocate funds for emergency flood relief. However, World Bank efforts to support disaster risk management have had limited impact. The govern- ment ultimately did not adopt the disaster risk management strategy that was prepared with World Bank support,14 but building codes were updated to improve resistance to the effects of natural disasters. The EU, which has a large climate change grant program, has assumed leadership in advising the government on disaster risk management. Productivity improvements through irrigation were also achieved, though with delays caused by institutional changes. These changes include decen- tralization and shifts in responsibilities for water resources management between the Ministry of Environment and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. Municipalities have limited institutional capacity to take on the management of irrigation infrastructure, and shifts in ministerial mandates required time to be completed, which hampered the execution of Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group contracts for infrastructure and capacity building. Incomplete or inadequate land registration in some areas has also delayed the completion of some irrigation infrastructure. The Water Resources and Irrigation Project is now on track to expand irrigated area by about 40,000 hectares in six irrigation programs (the revised project target under additional financing), but there are concerns about small farmers’ access to irrigated water.15 World Bank support for the policy framework has seen significant success. Important progress was made with the preparation of the national integrated water resources management strategy and World Bank–managed technical assistance for developing a national water cadaster, irrigation regulations, and two river basin management plans. A new law on irrigation is under preparation with World Bank support, informed by the new draft Irrigation, 45 Drainage, and Flood Protection Strategy (also prepared with World Bank sup- port). Agreeing on strategies and enacting legislation is a long process, and the World Bank stayed the course over the evaluation period, earning credi- bility with the government and development partners. Expected results in solid waste management were achieved but with extended delays. Urban environmental achievements included hazardous waste hot spot remediation at Porto Romano, which was successfully completed and continues to be managed in accordance with end-of-project plans. The World Bank invested in a regional solid waste management operation in Himara. Inadequate land registration increased the costs and delayed completion of this latter initiative. The extent to which the objectives under this pillar were achieved is rated moderately satisfactory. Results sought were substantially achieved, though with delays in many cases, and the World Bank provided valuable support at the policy and strategy level. Improving the Quality of Service Provision in the Social Sectors Access to and Quality of Education Services and Understanding Labor Market Constraints Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 Bank Group strategy shifted during the evaluation period from supporting country education reform strategies to focusing on skills and the labor mar- ket. In the CPS, the World Bank continued the previous Country Assistance Strategy and sought to broaden access to education, particularly at the sec- ondary and higher levels, and to improve quality at all levels. The objectives were highly relevant to country conditions and supported the implemen- tation of the first phase of the country’s education reform strategies. World Bank work provided an overall framework, in essence attempting to shift the education system from a focus on inputs to education outcomes, where efficiency and accountability measures would lead to enhanced performance and greater equity. A significant improvement in Albania’s human capital is imperative for the country to become more competitive within the region 46 and is a key factor for poverty reduction.16 Employers viewed school leavers as ill equipped for the needs of the workplace in a market economy. The poor were the most affected. In the CPF, the Bank Group ended its support to the education sector based on the priorities established by the SCD and the government’s view that it no longer required World Bank funding for edu- cation (figure 2.1). The CPF indicated that the World Bank would “support an analytic program that will seek an evidence-based understanding of the labor market and the constraints faced by women and the bottom 40 percent to labor force participation” (World Bank 2015a, 30) which is unquestionably relevant work given the policy challenges in Albania. However, it offered no specific outcomes in its results framework. During the CPS period, and in collaboration with other partners, the World Bank carried out a balanced mix of lending and ASA highlighting key sec- tor challenges. World Bank financing approved under the previous Country Assistance Strategy sought to help improve the quality of teaching and learning, expand secondary school enrollment, and initiate higher education reform, including compliance with the EU’s Bologna Process.17 To boost per- formance incentives, it also sought to strengthen management, leadership, and governance and accountability through decentralized service deliv- ery and increased school responsibility. However, given the implementing agencies’ weak institutional and fiduciary capacity, the World Bank’s project was too ambitious and complex in design. Moreover, design failed to include new school construction, a government priority, which was added later, in Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group addition to renovation of existing school buildings. World Bank ASA focused on education governance and accountability as essential to improving the education system’s performance and on key factors to improve quality and relevance of education. ASA activities on highly relevant education topics relating to skills and the labor market were delivered under the CPF. Various tasks generated knowl- edge on early childhood development and quality of education, including an assessment of trends in student learning using the Program for Interna- tional Student Assessment results during 2000–15 and Albania case studies on out-of-work and out-of-school youth and on Roma exclusion.18 Under the CPF, the World Bank examined links between labor supply and demand and 47 labor market regulation and institutions, including how these help explain labor market outcomes. Regarding skills development, special attention was paid to understanding the issues affecting youth, women, and the bottom 40 percent of the population. The recent policy notes, which proposed reform options to stimulate job creation and growth, provided substantial inputs to the preparation of a government action plan. They included specific measures to improve the education system’s quality and efficiency, foster job-relevant skills development by the training system, and remove labor market barriers. There were significant improvements in access to secondary, higher,19 and preprimary education, although services for rural areas and the poor remain a challenge. Despite rapid expansion of the education system, the quality of pre-university education improved as proxied by student learning outcomes in standardized tests, with more students reaching basic proficiency in the Program for International Student Assessment tests between 2000 and 2012 and again in 2015. Still, overall quality remains low, as about half of 15-year- olds are functionally illiterate and lack basic numeracy skills.20 The huge ex- pansion of higher education led to a decline in quality, along with stagnant resources, no change in curricula or teaching methods, and accreditation of universities that did not meet criteria or standards. The World Bank and other partners’ financing contributed to broader secondary education access and improved learning outcomes by supporting investments that directly improved teaching and learning conditions, even though difficult implemen- tation led to a 2.5-year extension of the World Bank’s project. Implementation of reforms to strengthen performance incentives has lagged. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 Higher education reform objectives were only partially achieved. Although the legal and regulatory frameworks and mechanisms for results-based financing and quality assurance were developed, implementation was insuf- ficient. Overall, despite financing and strong ASA, key systemic reform goals to transform incentives in the formal education system to focus on perfor- mance were not achieved. The achievement of objectives in education is rated moderately satisfactory. Objectives under the CPS were and continue to be highly relevant, and prog- ress was made, although more remains to be done. The World Bank sought no specific education-related outcomes under the CPF, but it did respond to government requests for work on skills development and jobs. This work was 48 well received and useful to the government, but it is too early to assess its possible impact. Access to and Quality of Health Services Bank Group objectives in health supported government priorities. Two key objectives were maintained throughout the evaluation period: improving access to quality health care services (including reducing out-of-pocket spending) and improving the efficiency of the health care system. Both were relevant to country conditions and reflected key issues in the health sector. Although several health outcomes in Albania had improved, the quality of health care was poor, service delivery suffered from inefficiency at all lev- els (because of a lack of incentives and accountability for performance for providers), and households’ financial protection against health care costs was weak.21 These factors disproportionately affected the poor—high out-of- pocket costs represented about 10 percent of total expenditure for the lowest income quintile. The World Bank emphasized primary health care during the CPS period. It emphasized hospitals, which dominated public health spend- ing, during the CPF period (57 percent versus less than 40 percent on aver- age in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries). Nevertheless, in both periods, the World Bank sought to shift the health sys- tem from input-based financing toward output-based approaches to improve systemwide performance in efficiency, equity, and quality of services. Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group World Bank interventions did not sufficiently factor in the capacity and political economy constraints. Through FY14, the focus was on primary health care improvements and development of performance-based resource allocation mechanisms at the primary health care level. From FY15 on, with the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation providing financing for primary health care, the World Bank’s focus turned to hospital manage- ment improvements and performance-based resource allocation, sectorwide health management information systems, and further improvement in finan- cial access to health care. However, health project designs seem to have been too optimistic regarding absorptive capacity in the implementing agencies and stability of health sector leadership, and it seems to have overestimated the government’s commitment to health sector reform. 49 Results were mixed regarding improved access to and quality of health services. During the evaluation period, some important health outcomes improved, including reduced infant mortality, under-five mortality, and child stunting.22 At the same time, the Demographic and Health Survey 2017–18 reports a mixed picture on trends in access to and quality of primary health care services. Coverage of antenatal care reportedly declined between 2008–09 and 2017–18,23 but the provision of antenatal and postnatal services followed World Health Organization standard protocols more closely, sug- gesting quality improvements for those with access.24 However, the contribu- tion of World Bank projects to these results is likely to have been limited. Re- cently, the government took steps to address noncommunicable diseases by providing free access to family doctors for 600,000 uninsured people, includ- ing reimbursement for drugs, a free checkup program for all 35–70 year olds, regardless of insurance status, and a breast cancer screening program for women. Still, lack of required household survey data since 2012 and delays in establishing the health management information system hinder an in-depth assessment of the impact of these changes. Efficiency improvements have also lagged, partly because of a volatile in- stitutional environment that has hindered smooth implementation of major reforms. The World Bank’s Social Sector Reform DPL supported key building blocks for an effective health system. A single payer for all public health services was established; the capacity of the Ministry of Health and the Health Insurance Institute (now the Health Insurance Fund) to formu- Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 late financing policy and performance management contracts with primary health care facilities was built up; and a master plan to rationalize hospitals was developed. However, most objectives have not been achieved. Household out-of-pocket spending remains high. During the CPS, the rate of insurance coverage rose to about 60 percent compared with a target of 70 percent, but more recent data are not available (administrative data suggest it has con- tinued to increase, although there have been consistency issues between administrative and household survey data in the past). The implementation of performance-based primary health care financing, which the World Bank supported, and the integration of performance into hospital financing, have seen very limited progress. 50 The achievement of objectives in health is rated moderately unsatisfactory. Implementation of World Bank support has been less than satisfactory be- cause project design was too ambitious and political economy factors inter- vened. Frequent changes in the Ministry of Health (six during the implemen- tation of a project that covered the initial years of the evaluation period), followed by senior staff changes, led to implementation delays, project restructurings, and very limited progress on key reforms supported. Factors such as the administrative and territorial reforms and the ministry restruc- turing have further stressed the sector’s limited institutional capacity. Coverage, Targeting, and Efficiency of Social Protection Services Throughout the evaluation period, the World Bank sought to help improve access to and the equity and efficiency of Albania’s social protection system. Social protection covers both social assistance and the public pension sys- tem. The World Bank’s objectives were highly relevant to country conditions and key social protection issues. Albania was and still is among the poorest countries in the Europe and Central Asia Region, and after the global and euro area crises, sluggish growth and increased unemployment heightened household vulnerability. The poorest lacked access to social assistance pro- grams because of weak management, poor targeting, and inefficient resource allocation. Regarding pensions, demographic shifts, declining labor force participation, a growing informal sector, and ad hoc policy changes had un- Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group dermined fiscal sustainability, fairness, and pension system incentives. The World Bank’s objectives aligned closely with both national development and social protection strategies on the need to reform the two key social assis- tance programs—Ndihma Ekonomike (or Solidarity Albania) and Disability Allowance—and the pension system. The World Bank’s social protection program consisted of a well-sequenced and balanced mix of ASA and lending. Multiyear World Bank ASA provided crucial insights on the key issues facing existing social assistance programs and social care services. This included governance and management, target- ing, and benefits administration. The ASA program was designed to build ownership of the reform agenda, strengthen the capacity of key social pro- 51 tection agencies, and provide a sequenced road map for implementation. A subregional study helped benchmark the Ndihma Ekonomike in relation to other Western Balkans programs. World Bank support to the implementa- tion of the LSMS was essential for designing a proxy means test based on the targeting mechanism for the Ndihma Ekonomike program. World Bank analytical work on pensions—sustained over a long period—was also critical for diagnosing key challenges in the system and developing a comprehen- sive approach to policy reform, including defining priority areas for reform and quantifying their fiscal impact. Second, a project approved in 2001 (the Social Service Delivery Project) served both to establish the foundations of social assistance and pension reforms and enable the World Bank to help prepare the new social assistance targeting methodology and revisions to the legal framework. Regarding pensions, the project supported the Social Insurance Institute’s administrative reform (including development of the central registry of contributors and beneficiaries), helped improve public understanding of the pension system, and strengthened the Social Insurance Institute’s capacity for pension policy development. Steady World Bank financing supported ambitious social assistance reforms. During the CPS, the Social Sector Reform Development Policy Operation fo- cused on policy and legislative changes to improve the equity and efficiency of social assistance programs. These policies represented a fundamental shift, transferring decision-making on Ndihma Ekonomike eligibility from local governments to a centrally defined mechanism based on specific poverty criteria managed by the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs that eliminated Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 discretionary beneficiary selection. The follow-up operation—the FY12 Social Assistance Modernization Project (SAMP)—sought to help implement the policy changes and improve transparency through proactive communica- tions, modernized information systems, and increased clarity on rules, roles, and controls. Best practice design features included indicative implementa- tion road maps sketching the key results chains for improving the equity and efficiency of the Ndihma Ekonomike and Disability Allowance programs, and the use of pilots to learn the best way to adapt new mechanisms and systems before national rollout. During the CPF, additional financing for the SAMP operation (FY18) sought to scale up the geographical scope of Disability Allowance reform activities, improve physical accessibility to regional social 52 security offices for people with disabilities, and develop a graduation and activation strategy for Ndihma Ekonomike beneficiaries. Two World Bank operations supported an important pension reform. During the CPS, FY09 additional financing for an IPF operation approved before the evaluation period funded multiyear technical assistance. This support aimed to strengthen government institutional capacity for pension administra- tion and pension reform design and implementation, and to enhance public understanding of the pension system. A series of two public finance develop- ment policy operations supported the enactment of a new pensions strategy and law, which strengthened the contributory program to reduce fiscal costs over time by more closely linking benefits to contributions and time in the labor market, increased the retirement age (notably to reduce gender in- equality), introduced a social pension program to protect poor elderly people without pension rights, and capped budget transfers to the pension system. The World Bank contributed to significant legal, regulatory, and capacity im- provements in Albania’s pension system. With World Bank support, exten- sive outreach and communication strategies garnered critical public support for pension reform. The reform successfully reduced the fiscal burden of pensions, and the number of workers contributing to the system has in- creased.25 Pension administration has significantly improved, moving from a paper-based to an electronic system. However, challenges to the pension system’s sustainability that still need to be addressed include overoptimistic Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group demographic and growth projection and the need to reform rural pensions. World Bank support helped Albania revamp its social assistance policies to improve coverage, targeting, and efficiency. Under the DPL, the World Bank supported key policy measures, including creating a unified registry of social assistance beneficiaries by changing mechanisms to allocate resources and select beneficiaries for the Ndihma Ekonomike and Disability Allowance, and changing the Disability Allowance’s indexation formula, which curtailed the program’s ballooning costs. The Unified Scoring Formula was piloted for two years as part of the World Bank’s SAMP, after which the legal framework was amended to take into account lessons from the pilot. Extensive communica- tion strategies were critical to inform local governments, beneficiaries, and the public about the reform objectives. Rollout on a national scale was de- 53 layed and began in 2018 with SAMP support. The Unified Scoring Formula is also being used to determine eligibility for other social assistance programs, including the energy cash benefit (designed to mitigate the impact of elec- tricity tariff increases under the energy sector reform). The development and nationwide implementation of an electronic management information sys- tem for the Ndihma Ekonomike program has improved efficiency by allowing cross-checking of individual requests with other government databases and reducing the time needed to determine eligibility for benefits by 80 percent.26 Progress on Disability Allowance reform has been slower—the reform has been designed and piloted in just two districts. Reform implementation has faced significant challenges. Experience to date with the Unified Scoring Formula has shown significant errors of exclusion, which have been addressed by returning some discretionary power to munici- pal governments on Ndihma Ekonomike eligibility—a practical, short-term fix, but not a substitute for updated household welfare data. The national rollout of both Ndihma Ekonomike and Disability Allowance has been slower than the World Bank anticipated because of the reforms’ complexity and political sensitivity, frequent ministerial changes, institutional restructuring, and major delays in government decision-making during the period before and after the 2017 election. Given the lack of comparable household survey data, it is difficult to measure the extent to which the coverage, equity, and efficiency of social protection services has improved. Available information based on the social assistance Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 reform pilot in three regions covering half of the country’s population indicates that targeting of the Ndihma Ekonomike programs has improved significantly.27 However, this is impossible to confirm due to the lack of com- parable household data, as discussed in chapter 2. The achievement of objectives in social protection warrants a moderately satisfactory rating. The World Bank contributed to significant improvements in Albania’s social assistance system by supporting legal and regulatory change and the development of institutional capacity in the Ndihma Ekono- mike and Disability Allowance programs. However, implementation chal- lenges entailed delays in scaling up the system nationally. Administrative data indicate some improvement in coverage, targeting, and efficiency in pi- 54 lot areas, but household data to confirm these results are missing. The World Bank contributed to significant improvements in pension system solvency and participation. Access to and Quality of Water and Sanitation Services Objectives in urban water supply and sanitation broadened over the evalua- tion period. CPS and CPF objectives were well aligned with the government’s development priorities for urban infrastructure improvement, institutional reforms in the water sector, and improving livelihoods. The CPS focused on sewerage improvements as part of a broader goal of improving critical public environmental and municipal services. The CPF sought enhanced coverage of water and sanitation services, with infrastructure investments in a single city (Durres, a key coastal tourism hub) as the primary vehicle for achieving the objective. Results frameworks were adequate, but outcome indicators were too focused on outputs. Strategic objectives responded well to Albania’s EU accession goal—for example, accession directives and progress reports explicitly cited Albania’s need to invest more in wastewater management and improve water utility administration and service delivery. One hundred percent of the wastewater generated in the beach area (an important tourism destination) is now channeled to the wastewater treatment plant, benefiting about 150,000 residents. Good progress was made toward the World Bank’s sewerage infrastructure Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group development and service improvement targets. World Bank investments in wastewater collection and management in Saranda and Himara were com- pleted in 2012, but the slow implementation of parallel investments sup- ported by other financiers hindered the favorable impact. For example, the sewerage treatment system in Saranda was not fully operational until 2018. Good progress is being made on improving wastewater treatment in Durres and expanding connections. Sewer connections are nearly on target to be achieved by project completion (more than 2,900 new connections versus a target of 3,000), while targets for the volume of wastewater treated have been exceeded (2.2 million cubic meters versus a target of 1.8 million). Water supply services in Durres have improved, though with some delays, but the water utility’s institutional capacity continues to be a challenge. 55 The water supply component of the Water Resources and Irrigation Project, which involves developing a new water source for Durres and constructing a new main feeder pipeline, suffered from significant delays partly because of unclear property rights.28 Implementation of the water supply component is now accelerating. Before the project, the Durres water supply utility was near collapse. The development of a new water source and related improvements to the water network have resulted in improved water quality and supply duration. Water service duration has increased to 8 hours per day compared with 1–2 hours per day before the project started, but they remain below the end-of-project target of 12 hours per day. The central government continues to manage the project, given the water utility’s weak capacity. More generally, Albania’s water and sanitation utilities continue to under- perform in the context of weaknesses in the policy framework, although there has been some recent performance improvement from a low base.29 Services and performance standards remain far below what is required for EU accession, and most utilities are heavily subsidized.30 Rural communities, which make up more than 20 percent of the population, remain largely un- served because of the capacity limitations of the municipal utilities respon- sible for serving them. The evolving integrated water management policy has been yet to prove effective in improving utilities’ performance except in municipalities receiving long-term donor support. The achievement of objectives for access to water and sanitation is rated moderately satisfactory. World Bank lending in the sector focused on infra- Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 structure development and provided some support for institutional capacity building. The World Bank has expressed concern to government about the way the integrated water management policy is being operationalized, al- though this has had limited impact so far. The two ASA interventions during the evaluation period were widely acknowledged to have made very effective contributions to strengthening urban water supply and sanitation services, although the World Bank has yet to develop a comprehensive ASA program in the sector to help determine a more desirable reform path.31 56 By 2014, the fiscal balance had deteriorated to −5.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) 1  from −3.6 percent in 2011, and public debt had risen to 72 percent of GDP from 60 percent in 2011. 2  Supported by the development policy loan, the government has made substantial progress in reorganizing the tax administration to better focus on large taxpayers and publishing its first tax expenditure review in December 2019. 3  The World Bank also helped the government adopt a local government solvency bylaw, which monitors local government arrears and prescribes action plans through the technical assistance. 4  By 2014, nonperforming loans had risen to almost 23 percent of total loans (among the highest in the region), which seriously threatened financial stability and contributed to the stagnation of credit to the private sector. 5  The development effectiveness rating was mostly successful. 6  According to the data obtained from the Port of Saranda in 2019, ship traffic is increasing steadily, with 130 cruise ships using the port in 2018. The number of foreign citizens arriving in Albania increased from 3.7 million in 2014 to 5.9 million in 2018 (INSTAT 2019c). 7  Accurate, efficient, and transparent land administration records and procedures are import- ant conditions for EU accession. For example, the European Commission noted in 2018 that progress has yet to be made toward improving the legal framework for registration, expropri- ation, and compensation; the 2012–20 strategy on property rights has yet to be updated; and institutional coordination should be improved. However, it also notes that an Integrated Land Management Secretariat has been established (EC 2018). Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 8  These projects were implemented over a period coinciding with major political changes and economic stresses in Albania and a major Inspection Panel case concerning informal settle- ments that involved the Integrated Coastal Zone Management and Cleanup Project. 9  The restructuring entailed scaling back much of the urban planning component and partially re- placing it with emergency flood relief investment to accommodate disaster mitigation needs that arose during project implementation. 10  The Immovable Property Registration Office was responsible for the land registration and cadaster; the Agency for Legalisation, Urbanisation, and Integration of Informal Areas and Buildings was responsible for the legalization of properties; and the Restitution Agency was responsible for the restitution of land belonging to former owners—all subordinate to differ- ent ministries. 57 11  For example, the credit line with Credins Bank was drawn on only to a very limited extent. The International Finance Corporation has facilitated much larger investment by the private sector into the renewable energy sector through its Balkan Renewable Energy Program (advi- sory services). 12  The privatization of the Albanian Power Corporation, supported by a partial risk guarantee through the power sector generation and restructuring project (fiscal years [FY]04–11), failed because of both inadequate investment by the private operator and government inaction on tariff adjustments and controlling electricity theft. 13  The project contributed to the strengthening of the capacities of selected municipalities, which are now legally responsible for managing irrigation and drainage systems. 14  The strategy focused on disaster management preparedness rather than disaster risk mitiga- tion. The EU and other donors were emphasizing mitigation, for which the EU has substantial grant funding. The government decided to focus on mitigation rather than preparedness as the core of the national disaster risk management strategy. 15  The project has made credible contributions to modernizing the Water Resources Man- agement Information System through, for example, installation of groundwater monitoring equipment and preparation and online launching of a water cadaster. 16  In the early 2000s, Albanians attained only 8.6 years of schooling on average (almost six years less than peers in the EU), and the country scored among the lowest in the Europe and Central Asia Region on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Pro- gram for International Student Assessment (PISA), a set of standardized achievement tests for Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 language, math, and science. 17  The Bologna Process is a series of agreements in higher education reached by 48 Euro- pean countries (including Albania) to ensure compatibility in the quality and standards of higher education. 18  Along with the CPF (World Bank 2015a, 56, para. 83), these tasks included Early Childhood Development SABER Country Report (World Bank 2015c); PISA analysis (World Bank 2014f); Central Europe and Baltics PISA analysis (World Bank 2015f); Mauro and Mitra (2015); and Robayo-Abril and Millan (2019).. 19  In secondary education, gross enrollment increased from 88 percent to 96 percent between 2010 and 2017. Net secondary enrollment reached 87 percent in 2017 (up from 72 percent in 58 2012, according to the LSMS). In higher education, gross enrollment increased from 44 per- cent to 57 percent between 2010 and 2017. For more information, see the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization enrollment statistics 2009–17 at http://uis. unesco.org/country/AL. 20  PISA results for 2015 show that the share of Albanian 15-year-old students performing be- low basic proficiency was 53 percent in math, 50 percent in reading, and 42 percent in science. 21  Out-of-pocket costs were high (55 percent of total health expenditures), partly resulting from chronically low levels of public health spending (2.6 percent of GDP, the lowest in the region). 22  Infant mortality declined from 10.7 per 1,000 in 2010 to 7.8 per 1,000 live births in 2017, and under-five mortality declined from 12 per 1,000 to 9 per 1,000 live births in the same period (according to the United Nations Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation), and stunted growth of children declined from 19 percent in 2008–09 to 11 percent in 2017–18 (INSTAT 2018). 23  According to the Demographic and Health Survey 2017–18, antenatal care coverage fell from 97 percent in 2008–09 to 88 percent in 2017–18. 24  Between 2008–09 and 2017–18, the share of women who received the World Health Organi- zation’s recommended four antenatal visits to a skilled health worker increased from 67 per- cent to 78 percent. The share of mothers and babies who received postnatal care within four hours of delivery also improved from 59 percent to 76 percent, and the share of women receiv- ing iron supplementation to prevent anemia during their most recent pregnancy increased from 34 percent to 67 percent, according to the Demographic and Health Survey 2017–18. 25  The Independent Evaluation Group’s May 2015 Completion and Learning Review of the Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group FY11–14 Country Partnership Strategy indicates that the government’s contribution to pen- sions remained under the 3.45 percent of GDP cap, and the share of the workforce contribut- ing to the system increased from 30 percent to 35 percent. 26  According to the project documents of the 2012 Social Assistance Modernization Project, the time to determine eligibility decreased from 25 days in 2009 to 5 days in 2018. 27  The PLR for the CPF FY15–19 mentions that (i) overall Ndihma Ekonomike coverage declined between 2009 and 2015 from 12.7 percent to 10.4 percent of the population, but cov- erage of the extreme poor remained stable, and coverage of the top decile decreased; (ii) the share of benefits accruing to the poorest decile increased from 34 percent in 2009 to 45 per- 59 cent in 2015; and (iii) the poverty gap would have been 0.5 percentage points higher in 2015 compared with 0.3 in 2009. Note that the Household Budget Survey sample is not representa- tive of Ndihma Ekonomike beneficiaries. 28  Key parcels of land in the project area were not yet registered or their ownership was contested. 29  The Danube Water Program’s State of the Sector Update for 2018 (World Bank 2018f) indicates that Albania’s overall water supply and sanitation service sustainability score rose from 49 in 2015 to 55 in 2018. 30  Only 15 of Albania’s 58 utilities can cover their operation and maintenance costs from reve- nues, and even fewer can cover service expansion or asset depreciation. 31  The current focal donor for urban water and sanitation services, KfW, and the Technical Secretariat of the National Water Council have expressed a desire for the World Bank to play a more prominent advisory role on urban water policy and strategy. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 3 60 4 | Conclusions, Lessons, and Suggestions Overall, the extent to which the Bank Group program met its relevant objectives is rated moderately satisfactory. The overall rating is based on a synthesis of pillar-level ratings (appendix A, table A.1), with greater weight given to the rating for pillar 1, where lending was concentrated during the evaluation period. The rating recognizes certain positive features of program design and implementation. These included the agility with which the Bank Group responded to macrofinancial shocks, working closely with a newly elected government to help define and implement a robust policy agenda. Regarding Albania’s EU accession goal, the Bank Group played a support- ive role while keeping its program firmly rooted in the institution’s goals of reducing extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity. The Bank Group contributed to the regional integration agenda through several of its ASA and lending tasks. It deployed ASA strategically, making valuable contribu- tions to government policy making and reform implementation. Desirable adjustments to the Bank Group program include emphasis on improving portfolio implementation and greater selectivity in new IPF op- erations. Table 4.1 sets out the links among selected CPE findings, lessons drawn, and suggestions. The Bank Group’s strategy and program have been broadly appropriate, but some shortcomings were identified: The program may have been insufficiently selective given implementation capacity, political absorptive capacity, and governance considerations; the design of IPF operations was either too complex or did not sufficiently anticipate and mitigate impediments to implementation stemming from weak capacity and political economy factors. Adjustments in two directions would be desirable. First, in sectors and thematic areas where the Bank Group engages, it should use its ASA to define and encourage public debate about the policy reform agenda. Second, the Bank Group should redouble recent efforts to strengthen portfolio implementation, deploying new investment lending selectively and 61 ensuring that efforts are made to proactively mitigate capacity and politi- cal economy constraints either as part of project design or through parallel efforts. Given the essential role of household survey data availability, the Bank Group is advised to encourage authorities to ensure that publication of future survey round results occurs regularly and on time. Table 4.1. Selected Findings, Lessons, and Suggestions Selected CPE Findings Lessons Drawn Suggestions Use of World Bank Group ad- Advisory services and Use advisory services and an- visory services and analytics analytics are an essen- alytics to engage government in several areas (notably pen- tial means of engage- authorities, citizens, and other sions) was effective in helping ment for the Bank stakeholders to articulate and to articulate and build con- Group to help define build support and consensus sensus and capacity for road and build consensus and capacity for reform op- maps for reform, which then and capacity for reforms tions in sectors and thematic provided the basis for lending and to lay the ground- areas that the Bank Group support. Client stakeholders work for lending. considers essential to reduc- highly appreciated the Bank ing poverty and promoting Group’s knowledge work. shared prosperity and where there is stakeholder demand. Implementation of the World It is important for the Be more selective in new Bank’s investment project design of investment lending, given the implemen- financing portfolio during the project financing oper- tation issue over the evalua- evaluation period suffered ations to be consistent tion period, by deploying it to difficulties and delays. The with implementation ca- support reforms and invest- underlying causes included pacity and to anticipate ments for which consensus complex design and barriers and adequately mitigate has been established, ensur- to implementation related to barriers to implemen- ing that efforts are made to Albania Country Program Evaluation  Chapter 4 capacity and political economy. tation, including those proactively mitigate capacity Although capacity and politi- caused by weak capac- and political economy con- cal economy risks are usually ity or political economy straints. flagged in program documents, constraints. they were not adequately miti- gated in project design. 62 The discontinuation of the Transitions in represen- Encourage the authorities Living Standards Measure- tative household survey and other stakeholders to ment Survey after the 2012 instruments in client ensure that results of future survey round, coupled with countries need to be rounds of the Statistics on the delayed publication of the carefully managed to Income and Living Conditions Statistics on Income and Liv- minimize delays in data survey are published regu- ing Conditions survey results, availability so that stake- larly and promptly, given the deprived the World Bank holders do not lose the crucial role of household sur- and other stakeholders of an means to gauge prog- vey data in effective project essential means of calibrating ress toward reducing design and implementation in reforms and gauging prog- poverty and promoting support of the World Bank’s ress toward reducing extreme shared prosperity. twin goals and the long pe- poverty and promoting shared riod experienced when data prosperity. were unavailable. 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Washing- Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group ton, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2019. Doing Business 2019: Albania. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2020. Doing Business 2020: Albania. Washington, DC: World Bank. 69 70 Albania Country Program Evaluation  Bibliography APPENDIXES Independent Evaluation Group Albania Country Program Evaluation Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 71 Appendix A. Outcome Rating The extent to which the World Bank Group program attained its pillar 1–level objective of strengthening macrofinancial management and public service delivery is rated moderately satisfactory (table A.1). Some progress was made in strengthening the management of public finances, including reining in the fiscal deficit, resolving arrears, and controlling the growth of public debt. However, results are incomplete, and their sustainability is uncertain. Good progress was made in strengthening the stability of the financial sector and in building the institutional capacity for regulation and supervision to sustain results. Nevertheless, credit to the private sector remains sluggish, and continued efforts are needed to deepen financial intermediation. The extent to which the Bank Group program achieved its pillar 2–level objective of improving the conditions for private sector development is rated moderately unsatisfactory. Although its specific objectives under this pillar were generally of high relevance, the effectiveness of Bank Group support was very qualified, especially in land and property registration and in energy. The Bank Group made consistent efforts to build institutional capacity but often with little impact. Bank Group program achievement of the pillar 3–level objective of improv- ing the management of land use, water, and the environment is rated mod- Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix A erately satisfactory. The erosion reduction target has been achieved, along with productivity improvement through irrigation and service improvement in waste management, though with some delays. World Bank support for the policy framework has seen significant progress. Finally, the extent to which the Bank Group program achieved of the pillar 4–level objective of improving service provision in the social sectors is rated moderately satisfactory. The World Bank provided strong intellectual lead- ership in education and health (though with some discontinuities) and in social protection. However, at least in education and health, the results of its lending were muted. Significant progress was made on pension reform, and promising but limited progress was made on the reform of social assistance 72 programs. In water supply and sanitation, the World Bank contributed to infrastructure improvements as well as analytical work. Table A.1 summarizes outcome ratings associated with Bank Group sup- port for each pillar, based on the ratings for individual areas of intervention (chapter 3).1 Overall, the extent to which the Bank Group program achieved its relevant objectives is rated moderately satisfactory. The overall rating is determined based on a synthesis of pillar-level outcome ratings, with pillar 1, warranting a larger weighting, based on the more extensive Bank Group engagement. The rating also recognizes the program’s synergies, flexibility, and respon- siveness to events and opportunities, and strategic use of advisory services and analytics. Table A.1. World Bank Group Program Outcome Ratings by Pillar Pillar and Subpillars Rating Pillar 1: Strengthening macrofinancial management and Moderately satisfactory public service delivery Strengthening fiscal management and public service delivery Moderately satisfactory Strengthening the financial sector Satisfactory Pillar 2: Improving conditions for private sector develop- Moderately unsatisfactory ment Business climate and tourism Moderately unsatisfactory Land and property registration Moderately unsatisfactory Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group Energy Moderately unsatisfactory Roads Moderately satisfactory Pillar 3: Improving the management of land, water, Moderately satisfactory and the environment Pillar 4: Improving the quality of service provision in the Moderately satisfactory social sectors Education Moderately satisfactory Health Moderately unsatisfactory Social protection Moderately satisfactory Water and sanitation Moderately satisfactory Overall rating Moderately satisfactory Source: Independent Evaluation Group. 73 1  Detailed analysis under many of the individual subobjectives is available in sectoral back- ground papers that can be made available on request. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix A 74 Appendix B. Country Program Evaluation Methodology The Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) analytical approach is guided by the 2005 Country Assistance Evaluation Retrospective undertaken by the Operations Evaluation Department of the World Bank (World Bank 2005). For assessing program outcomes, the analytical approach will be guided by Update to Guidance on World Bank Group Program Outcome Ratings in Inde- pendent Evaluation Group Country Program Evaluations, which IEG prepared in September 2018 to provide more detailed guidance on Country Program Evaluation (CPE) outcome ratings (World Bank 2018). Country Program Evaluation Methodology CPEs rate the outcomes of World Bank Group assistance programs rather than the country’s overall development outcome, although the latter is clear- ly relevant for judging the program’s outcome. Assessments of assistance program outcomes and Bank Group performance are not the same. The impact of four factors determines the assistance program’s outcome: (i) the country, (ii) the Bank Group, (iii) partners and other stakeholders, and (iv) exogenous forces. IEG measures Bank Group performance primarily based on Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group contributory actions the Bank Group controlled directly. Judgments regard- ing Bank Group performance typically consider the strategy’s relevance and implementation; the design and supervision of the Bank Group’s lending and financial support interventions; the scope, quality, and follow-up of diagnos- tic work and other advisory services and analytics (ASA); the consistency of the Bank Group’s lending and financial support with its nonlending work and with its safeguard policies; and the Bank Group’s partnership activities. Evaluating and Rating Bank Group Program Outcomes In rating the outcome of an assistance program, IEG gauges the extent to which major strategic objectives were relevant and achieved. In other words, did the Bank Group do the right thing, and did it do it right? Programs typ- 75 ically express goals in relation to higher-order objectives, such as poverty reduction. The Country Assistance Strategy or Country Partnership Frame- work may also establish intermediate goals, such as improved targeting of social services or promotion of integrated rural development and specify how they are expected to contribute toward achieving the higher-order objective. IEG’s task is then to validate whether the intermediate objectives were the right ones and whether they were achieved, and whether the results chain specified in the strategy was valid. Where causal links were not fully specified in the Country Assistance Strategy or Country Partnership Frame- work, the evaluator reconstructs the causal chain from the available evidence and assesses relevance and efficacy with reference to the intermediate and higher-order objectives. For each of the main objectives, the CPE evaluates the relevance of the ob- jective and the Bank Group’s strategy toward meeting the objective, includ- ing the balance between lending and nonlending instruments, the efficacy with which the strategy was implemented, and the results achieved, and does so in two steps. The first is a top-down review of whether the Bank Group’s program achieved a particular Bank Group objective or planned outcome and had a substantive impact on the country’s development. The second step is a bottom-up review of the Bank Group’s products and services (lending, ASA, and aid coordination) used to achieve the objective. Together, these two steps test the consistency of findings from the products and services and the development impact dimensions. Subsequently, IEG assesses the relative Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix B contribution to the results achieved by the Bank Group, other development partners, the government, and exogenous factors. Evaluators also assess the degree of country ownership of international de- velopment priorities, such as the Sustainable Development Goals, and Bank Group corporate advocacy priorities, such as safeguards. Limitations There are several limitations to the methodology underlying the CPE’s as- sessment. First, the approach to assessing ASA in CPEs has not been stan- dardized. Unlike lending operations, which consistently undergo evaluation with independent validation (and selectively, in-depth independent eval- 76 uation) with standardized ratings, the assessment of ASA is less rigorous. This is a notable weakness, especially where, as in Albania, ASA represent an important part of Bank Group engagement. Second, as with all CPEs, establishing a causal relationship between Bank Group interventions and higher-order country outcomes is inherently com- plex. Such contribution analysis needs to untangle the influence of the mul- tiplicity of actors and external factors (which can be especially challenging where the relative scale of Bank Group intervention is relatively small) and take account of interactions across projects and sectors. The CPE also needs to contend with data limitations. In Albania, for example, the lack of house- hold survey data makes it difficult to know how poverty and its correlates (such as access to and use of public services) have evolved over the evalua- tion period, let alone establish how the Bank Group may have contributed to these results. Third, the broad scope of the CPE and the limited availability of existing data on outcome achievement constrain the depth of analysis. Besides data limitations relating to ASA interventions, the availability of data on lend- ing projects is also uneven because the portfolio includes projects that have not yet closed or, regarding the International Finance Corporation, includes projects for which self-evaluation reports may not have been subject to inde- pendent validation (because of the sampling procedure that is applied to the self-evaluation reports and their validation). The Multilateral Investment Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group Guarantee Agency does not do project monitoring and supervision except for compliance with environmental and social standards, so there is limited or no data on the progress of projects on outcomes. The evaluation mitigates this limitation by complementing self-evaluation evidence with original data collected in the country and through the principle of theoretical general- ization (that is, the potential to generalize [to some extent] findings from a particular set of projects to other projects with similar characteristics, imple- mented under similar circumstances). The CPE’s rating approach is inherently a process of expert judgment based on multiple sources of evidence. Given the limitations, such judgment can never be watertight. To enhance the approach’s reliability and the findings’ validity, IEG evaluations adhere to a set of decision rules that link the evi- 77 dence base to the rating scales. In addition, they include a systematic pro- cess of reflection (involving additional decision rules) that allows evaluators to synthesize ratings from the project level to higher levels of intervention and ultimately the program level. These decision rules are discussed in detail in the updated guidance to CPE evaluations published in 2018 (World Bank 2018). References World Bank. 2005. Country Assistance Evaluation Retrospective: An OED Self-Evalua- tion. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2018. Update to Guidance on World Bank Group Program Outcome Ratings in Independent Evaluation Group Country Program Evaluations. Washington, DC: World Bank. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix B 78 Appendix C. Portfolio Review of the World Bank Group Operational Program in Albania FY11–19 World Bank Financing. The World Bank Group continued to support Alba- nia with increasing commitments and disbursements over the two Coun- try Partnership Strategy (CPS) and Country Partnership Framework (CPF) periods (figure C.1). The World Bank approved 19 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) projects to Albania with a total commitment of $1.1 billion over the fiscal years (FY)11–19. There were 34 International Development Association (IDA) and IBRD projects with a total commitment of $1.4 billion, including the ongoing projects approved before the evaluation period. Eighty-five percent of the total commitment was from IBRD (24 projects), and 15 percent originated from IDA (10 projects). Annual average lending commitments for FY11–14 were $284 million, and disburse- ments were $67 million, while averages for FY15–19 were $680 million and $190 million, respectively. Slow rates of disbursement (11 percent and 7 per- cent in FY16 and FY17, respectively) reflect the challenging implementation Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group environment affected by political complexities (tensions between parties in the ruling coalition) and technical complexities in the face of insufficient expertise (complex and large procurement packages). The average annual IDA and IBRD disbursements were clearly important contributors to overall official development assistance flows.1 79  ommitment Amounts and Total Disbursements to Albania, Figure C.1. C FY11–19 Source: World Bank Business Intelligence (as of April 23, 2019). Note: The commitment amount is for all projects in the portfolio, valued at the historical exchange rate (when the loan was negotiated). The total disbursement amount is to date for all projects in the portfolio, valued at the exchange rate in effect at the time of the disbursement. There were some changes in the engagement model and the priority areas, reflecting the ambitious reform agenda of the coalition government that took office in 2013. In FY14, new IBRD commitments rose above $300 mil- lion, at the time a record amount for Albania, including two development Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C policy loans (DPLs; the Financial Sector DPL and Public Finance DPL) to support macrofiscal sustainability and financial stabilization, respectively. There were 14 investment project financing operations approved ($682 mil- lion) and five DPLs ($415 million) approved (figure C.2). 80 BRD Commitments to Albania by Instrument Type and Num- Figure C.2. I ber, FY11–19 Source: World Bank Business Intelligence. Note: DPF = development policy financing; FY = fiscal year; IBRD = International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. IDA and IBRD Program Implementation. Under the FY11–14 CPS, the World Bank’s actual lending volumes were $602 million, close to the proposed allocation in the CPS baseline scenario ($625 million; table C.1). Under the Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group FY15–19 CPF, the World Bank’s actual lending volumes were $882 million, reaching about two-thirds of the proposed allocation (as of May 2019). 81  lbania Planned and Actual IDA and IBRD Lending during CPS Table C.1. A FY11–14 and CPF FY15–19 Total/ CPS FY11–14 CPF FY15–19 Average Proposed Actual Ongoing Proposed Actual Ongoing Total 625 602 261 1,220 882 238 during period Average 156 150 n.a. 244 176 n.a. annual Source: Independent Evaluation Group, based on CPS, CPSPLR, CPF, and World Bank Business Intelligence. Note: CPF = Country Partnership Framework; CPS = Country Partnership Strategy; CPSPLR = Country Partnership Strategy Performance and Learning Review; FY = fiscal year; IBRD = International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; IDA = International Development Association; n.a. = not applicable. Distribution of IDA and IBRD Commitments by Global Practice. Among all 34 IDA and IBRD projects, the Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation (21 percent) and the Energy and Extractives (20 percent) Global Practices (GPs) accounted for the biggest share of commitments, amounting to $552 million, followed by the Transport and Digital Development GP (13 percent) and the Water GP (11 percent; figure C.3). Of the 29 investment projects during the review period, 16 projects have been extended, restructured, or both, repre- senting 55 percent of the total portfolio. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C 82 DA and IBRD Commitments Active in Albania during FY11–19 Figure C.3. I by Global Practice Source: World Bank Business Intelligence. Note: The projects include the one approved before the evaluation period and closed or remaining active during the evaluation period. AGR = Agriculture; EAE = Energy and Extractives; EDU = Education; ENV = Environment and Natural Resources; FCI = Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation; FY = fiscal year; GOV = Governance; HNP = Health, Nutrition, and Population; IBRD = International Bank for Reconstruction and Devel- opment; IDA = International Development Association; MTI = Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment; SPL = Social Protection and Labor; TDI = Transport and ICT; URS = Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience; WAT = Water. Regional lending. To promote Albania’s regional integration, the World Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group Bank supported the government of Albania through regional projects. Alba- nia participated in one IBRD regional lending operation for the Europe and Central Asia Region, with a total regional commitment of $800 million. The Energy and Extractives GP implemented it. Country-level performance. The Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) evaluated 17 projects during the review period with a total associated com- mitment of $451.2 million. The share of Albania projects rated satisfactory on outcome was 86.2 percent, which is higher than the World Bank–wide average of 82.3 percent but lower than the Europe and Central Asia Region average of 90.3 percent. The average risk to development outcome rating for Albania projects, at 35.3 percent moderate or higher, is more favorable than the Europe and Central Asia average of 57.1 percent and the overall World 83 Bank average of 45.3 percent (tables C.5 and C.6). Latest supervision reports of active projects showed a 94.4 percent rating of progress toward achieve- ment of project development objectives. Projects at risk. The share in the number of projects at risk for Albania (26.2 percent) is higher than that for the Europe and Central Asia Region (19.2 percent) and the World Bank average (23.4 percent) and is the same as the share of commitments at risk (table C.7). World Bank advisory services and analytics (ASA). During the review period, there were 39 ASA projects completed, amounting to $6.2 million. Since FY11, the World Bank has provided ASA notably in Governance (10 projects, 26 percent of total number of ASA); Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation (8 projects, 21 percent); and Transport and Digital Development and Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment (4 projects, 10 percent). During FY11–14, the number of ASA by Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation was the highest (4 projects) to respond to the government’s needs to manage crisis and improve financial stability (figure C.4).  umber of World Bank ASA to Albania by Global Practice, FY11–19 Figure C.4. N Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C Source: World Bank Business Intelligence. Note: ASA = advisory services and analytics; EAE = Energy and Extractives; EDU = Education; FCI = Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation; FY = fiscal year; GOV = Governance; MTI = Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment; N/A = not applicable; POV = Poverty; SPL = Social Protection and Labor; TDD = 84 Transport and Digital Development; URS = Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience; WAT = Water. Trust fund financing. There were 41 trust-funded activities in Albania active during the review period, amounting to $76.06 million (figures C.5 and C.6). The Environment and Natural Resources GP ranks highest in amount among the GPs at 33 percent ($25.4 million, 9 projects), followed by Governance at $18.76 million (25 percent, 10 projects); Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience (15 percent, 6 projects); and Energy and Extractives (12 percent, 5 projects). Nine Governance trust fund projects were approved during the CPS and CPF periods. Six of 9 trust fund projects for the Environment and Natural Re- sources GP were approved before the evaluation period.  ctive Trust Fund Financing in Albania by Global Practice, Figure C.5. A FY11–19 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group Source: Client Connection. Note: AGR = Agriculture; EAE = Energy and Extractives; ENV = Environment and Natural Resources; FCI = Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation; FY = fiscal year; GOV = Governance; HNP = Health, Nutrition, and Population; MTI = Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment; N/A = not applicable; TDD = Transport and Digital Development; URS = Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience; WAT = Water. 85  ctive Trust Fund Financing in Albania by Global Practice, Figure C.6. A FY11–19 Source: Client Connection. Note: AGR = Agriculture; EAE = Energy and Extractives; ENV = Environment and Natural Resources; FCI = Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation; FY = fiscal year; GOV = Governance; HNP = Health, Nutrition, and Population; MTI = Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment; N/A = not applicable; TDD = Transport and Digital Development; URS = Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience; WAT = Water. International Finance Corporation investment and advisory services. There were 8 investment and 16 advisory projects in Albania, totaling Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C $220.62 million (original commitment) and $19.00 million, respectively, during the review period. No direct investment was made during the FY15– 19 CPF period except for indirect financing of highway public-private part- nerships and trade finance for a local bank. The three major sectors for the investments were banking, energy, and oil, gas, and mining. IEG reviewed 3 investment and 4 advisory projects during the review period, rating 1 invest- ment project mostly unsuccessful, 1 unsuccessful, and 1 highly successful on development outcomes. For advisory projects, IEG rated 2 as mostly success- ful, 1 as successful, and 1 as unsuccessful on development effectiveness. Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency. As of April 2019, the agency issued political risk insurance guarantees for a total gross outstanding ex- posure of $349 million supporting four projects: three in the banking sector 86 ($189 million) and one in the power sector ($159 million). Table C.2. World Bank Lending for Albania, FY11–19 IBRD+ IDA IDA+ Project Exit Agreement Project Global Lending IBRD ($, Grant Outcome ID FY FY Status Project Name Type Status Practice Type ($, M) M) ($, M) Rating P166469 18 n.a. N AF 2 ECSEE APL5 IBRD Active EAE IPF 14.2 0 14.2 Sa Dam Safety P162079 18 n.a. N AF Social Assis- IBRD Active SPL IPF 11 0 11 MSb tance Modern- ization P163239 18 n.a. N Regional and IBRD Active TDI IPF 50 0 50 S Local Roads Connectivity P162786 18 n.a. N Albania WRIP AF IBRD Active WAT IPF 26.8 0 26.8 Sc P155875 17 n.a. N Proj. for Integrat- IBRD Active URS IPF 71 0 71 S ed Urban and Tourism Dev P151972 16 n.a. N Citizen-Centered IBRD Active GOV IPF 32 0 32 S Public Services P144029 15 n.a. N Power Recovery IBRD Active EAE IPF 150 0 150 MS Project P130492 15 n.a. R ENVIRONMEN- IBRD Active ENR IPF 10 0 10 MS TAL SERVICES PROJECT P144688 15 n.a. N Albania Health IBRD Active HNP IPF 40 0 40 MU System Improve- ment 87 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 88 Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C IBRD+ IDA IDA+ Project Exit Agreement Project Global Lending IBRD ($, Grant Outcome ID FY FY Status Project Name Type Status Practice Type ($, M) M) ($, M) Rating P132982 15 n.a. N RRMSP IBRD Active TDI IPF 80 0 80 MS P102733 14 n.a. RE Water Sector In- IBRD Active WAT IPF 85.3 0 85.3 MS vestment Project P121186 13 n.a. R WATER RE- IBRD Active WAT IPF 40 0 40 S SOURCES AND IRRIGATION P125856 12 n.a. N DAM SAFETY— IBRD Active EAE IPF 21.6 0 21.6 Sa ADDITIONAL FINANCING P122233 12 n.a. R Social Assistance IBRD Active SPL IPF 50 0 50 MS Modernization Project P110481 08 n.a. E ECSEE APL 5 IDA Active EAE IPF 0 35.3 35.3 S DAM SAFETY P152064 17 18 N AL Financial IBRD Closed FCI DPL 100 0 100  S Sector DPL P155605 17 18 N Albania Competi- IBRD Closed FCI DPL 70 0 70  MS tiveness DPL P146280 14 15 N AL Financial IBRD Closed FCI DPL 100 0 100 IEG: S Sector DPL P147226 14 16 N Public Finance IBRD Closed MTI DPL 120 0 120 IEG: S DPL P116937 11 12 N Social Sector IBRD Closed SPL DPL 25 0 25 IEG: MS Reform DPL IBRD+ IDA IDA+ Project Exit Agreement Project Global Lending IBRD ($, Grant Outcome ID FY FY Status Project Name Type Status Practice Type ($, M) M) ($, M) Rating P107382 09 13 N ADD’L FIN—SOC IBRD Closed SPL IPF 5 0 5 IEG: MSd SERVICE DEL P110845 08 13 N DISASTER RISK IBRD Closed URS IPF 3 6.2 9.2 IEG: MU MITIGATION P107833 08 13 E SECONDARY IDA Closed TDI IPF 0 20 20 IEG: HS AND LOCAL ROADS P096643 07 12 RE AL Busi Env Ref IBRD Closed FCI IPF 5.6 3.7 9.3 IEG: MS and Insti Streng P096263 07 14 RE LAND ADMIN IBRD Closed URS IPF 20 15 35 IEG: S and MGMT PROJ P078949 07 11 N TRANSPORT IBRD Closed TDI IPF 20 5 25 IEG: S P078933 06 13 RE EDUC EXCEL IDA Closed EDU IPF 0 15 15 IEG: MU and EQUITY P082814 06 12 RE HEALTH SYST IDA Closed HNP IPF 0 15.4 15.4 IEG: MU MOD P100273 06 11 E AVIAN FLU—AL IDA Closed URS IPF 0 5 5 IEG: MS P082375 05 11 RE NATURAL RES IDA Closed AGR IPF 0 7 7 IEG: MS DEVT P090656 05 12 R ECSEE APL2 IDA Closed EAE IPF 0 27 27 IEG: MS (ALBANIA) P086807 05 15 R COASTAL ZONE IDA Closed ENR IPF 0 17.5 17.5 IEG: MS MGMT (APL #1) 89 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 90 Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C IBRD+ IDA IDA+ Project Exit Agreement Project Global Lending IBRD ($, Grant Outcome ID FY FY Status Project Name Type Status Practice Type ($, M) M) ($, M) Rating P077526 04 12 R POWER SEC- IDA Closed EAE IPF 0 25 25 IEG: U TOR GENER and RESTRCT’G P055383 01 13 RE SOC SERV DEVT IDA Closed SPL IPF 0 10 10 IEG: MS                 Total 1,150.50 207.10 1,357.60   Source: World Bank Business Intelligence as of April 10, 2019. Note: AGR = Agriculture; DPL = development policy loan; E = project extended; EAE = Energy and Extractives; EDU = Education; ENR = Environment and Natural Resources; FCI = Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation; FY = fiscal year; GOV = Governance; HNP = Health, Nutrition, and Population; HS = highly satisfactory; IBRD = Internation- al Bank for Reconstruction and Development; IDA = International Development Association; IEG = Independent Evaluation Group; IPF = investment policy financing; M = millions; MS = moderately satisfactory; MTI = Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment; MU = moderately unsatisfactory; N = project not restructured or extended; n.a. = not applicable; R = project restructured; RE = project both restructured and extended; S = satisfactory; SPL = Social Protection and Labor; TDI = Transport and ICT; U = unsatis- factory; URS = Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience; WAT = Water. a. Rating from parent project P110481. b. Rating from parent project P122233. c. Rating from parent project P121186. d. Rating from parent project P055383. Table C.3. Advisory Services and Analytics for Albania, FY11–19 BB Actual TF Actual Actual Total Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative Fiscal Project Fee-Based Global Product Cost Cost Cost Year ID Project Name Flag Practice Line ($, T) ($, T) ($, T) FY18 P151027 Albania #B005 Public Debt and No FCI AA 0 299.1 299.1 Govt. Bond FY18 P151033 Albania #B007 Insurance Market No FCI AA 0 423.2 423.2 Reform FY18 P156233 Sub National Public Finance No MTI AA 204.9 0 204.9 Review FY18 P159932 Enhancement of Public Sector No GOV AA 0 148.5 148.5 Accounting FY18 P161026 Albania: PEFA 2016 No GOV AA 0 229.5 229.5 FY18 P165280 Promoting Fiscal Transparency No GOV AA 22.9 0 22.9 in Albania FY18 P166966 Albania Finance for Growth No FCI AA 57.7 0 57.7 Assessment FY18 P166999 Albania Policy Notes No MTI AA 104.3 0 104.3 FY18 P167049 Albania Jobs Diagnostics ASA No SPL AA 11.7 0 11.7 FY19 P148596 Land Administration Data Im- No URS AA 0 67.3 67.3 provement FY19 P152351 WSS Sector Policy Support No WAT AA 0 1.3 1.3 FY19 P167690 Albania Decentralization Policy No GOV AA 0.8 0 0.8 Note 91 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 92 Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C BB Actual TF Actual Actual Total Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative Fiscal Project Fee-Based Global Product Cost Cost Cost Year ID Project Name Flag Practice Line ($, T) ($, T) ($, T) FY11 P107759 Accountability for Better Gover- No EDU EW 96.4 223.7 320.1 nance AAA FY11 P124165 DeMPA Assessment—Albania No MTI EW 65.1 0 65.1 FY14 P143099 Public Finance Review No GOV EW 471.0 0 471.0 FY14 P145524 Policy Notes No MTI EW 8.2 0 8.2 FY14 P146188 Albania FSAP Update No FCI EW 332.7 0 332.7 FY16 P152404 Assessment of Road Assets No TDD EW 16.7 0 16.7 FY16 P155674 Public Finance Functional Re- No GOV EW 0 249.0 249.0 view FY17 P156725 Albania Skills and Jobs Diag- No EDU EW 280.3 0 280.3 nostic FY17 P157934 Country Fiduciary and Project No GOV EW 230.4 0 230.4 Implement. FY17 P159602 Albania Sustainable Logistic— No TDD EW 3.1 299.4 302.5 MDTF FY11 P117865 Albania: #8090 Fin Crisis CP and No FCI TA 0 231.7 231.7 Sim. Ex. FY11 P118219 Albania GPF—e-government TA No TDD TA 18.0 86.6 104.6 FY12 P112643 FBS—Pro-Poor Gov in Water and Yes POV TA 497.9 0 497.9 Electr FY12 P119929 Expropriation Safeguards TA No URS TA 0 37.7 37.7 (TF096005) BB Actual TF Actual Actual Total Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative Fiscal Project Fee-Based Global Product Cost Cost Cost Year ID Project Name Flag Practice Line ($, T) ($, T) ($, T) FY12 P122125 FBS—Pro-Poor Govt in Water Yes WAT TA 18.2 0 18.2 and Electric FY12 P122126 FBS—Pro-Poor Govt. in Water Yes EAE TA 65.4 0 65.4 and Electric FY12 P126807 Albania Repeat PEFA Assess- No GOV TA −8.7 145.4 136.6 ment FY13 P127294 Albania #10051 Liberalizing No FCI TA 0 248.5 248.5 MTPL Ins Mkt FY13 P127599 Pension Reform TA No SPL TA 112.1 0 112.1 FY13 P130386 Universal Access and Service No TDD TA 1.7 148.0 149.7 ICT Sector FY13 P130439 Albania #10177 Strength Deposit No FCI TA 0 82.0 82.0 Insurance FY14 P131457 Support to PFM Strategy in No GOV TA 0 46.2 46.2 Albania FY15 P115786 Albania CGAC Program—GPF No GOV TA 11.9 31.7 43.5 Grant FY16 P149745 Reducing Risk and Building No URS TA 0 244.8 244.8 Resilience FY16 P150997 Albania B004 Pension Supervsn No FCI TA 0 260.7 260.7 93 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 94 Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C BB Actual TF Actual Actual Total Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative Fiscal Project Fee-Based Global Product Cost Cost Cost Year ID Project Name Flag Practice Line ($, T) ($, T) ($, T) FY16 P154086 Citizen-Centric Service Delivery No n.a. TA 41.3 0 41.3 JIT TA FY17 P158420 Albania Energy PISA No EAE TA 34.8 0 34.8 Total 2,698.70 3,504.60 6,203.20 Source: World Bank Business Intelligence as of April 16, 2019. Note: AA = analytical and advisory activities; AGR = Agriculture; ASA = advisory services and analytics; BB = bank budget; CGAC = Country Governance and Anti-Corrup- tion; CP = contingency plan; DeMPA = Debt Management Performance Assessment; EAE = Energy and Extractives; EDU = Education; EW = economic and sector work; FBS = fee=based service; FCI = Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation; FSAP = Financial Sector Assessment Program; FY = fiscal year; GOV = Governance; GPF = governance partnership facility; ICT = information and communication technology; JIT = just-in-time; MDTF = multidonor trust fund; MTI = Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment; MTPL = Motor Third Party Liability; n.a. = not applicable; PEFA = Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability; PFM = public finance management; PISA = Programme for International Student Assessment; POV = Poverty; SPL = Social Protection and Labor; T= thousands; TA = technical assistance; TDD = Transport and Digital Development; TF = trust fund; URS = Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience; WAT = Water; WSS = water supply and sanitation. Table C.4. Albania Trust Fund Financing, FY11–19 Project Approval Closing Approved No. ID Project Loan FY FY Practice Amount ($) 1 P129332 Second MDTF for Capacity Building Support to Imple- TF A8666 2019 2019 GOV 1,679,172.50 ment the IPS (IPS 2) 2 P164029 Developing a National Strategy for the Development of TF A7240 2019 2020 MTI 133,200.00 Statistics in Albania 3 P158380 SUPPORT TO EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRIES TRANSPAREN- TF A6493 2018 2020 EAE 600,000.00 CY INITIATIVE COMPLIANCE PROCESS PROJECT 4 P159931 Development of Public Sector Accounting TF A5134 2018 2020 GOV 376,500.00 5 P159931 Development of Public Sector Accounting TF A3277 2018 2020 GOV 1,073,500.00 6 P158380 SUPPORT TO EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRIES TRANSPAREN- TF A1769 2016 2020 EAE 400,000.00 CY INITIATIVE COMPLIANCE PROCESS PROJECT 7 P153167 Albania: Procurement Performance Enhancement Project TF 19164 2016 2018 GOV 270,000.00 8 P153211 Albania FSA—SECO Trust Fund for Strengthening Super- TF 18931 2015 2019 FCI 1,583,720.81 visory Capacities 9 P152567 Albania—Enhancing Quality of Financial Reporting TF 19228 2015 2020 GOV 2,076,347.50 (EQ-FINREP) 10 P130492 ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROJECT TF 18238 2015 2019 ENR 7,960,000.00 11 P128412 ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES TF 17364 2015 2020 ENR 2,880,000.00 12 P132982 Results-Based Road Maintenance and Safety Project TF 14761 2014 2015 TDD 700,000.00 13 P143963 Albania MDTF for Extractive Industry Transparency Initia- TF 14999 2014 2016 EAE 420,000.00 tive (EITI), Implementation Support, Phase III 14 P129332 Second MDTF for Capacity Building Support to Imple- TF 13972 2013 2019 GOV 4,833,416.17 ment the IPS (IPS 2) 15 P132679 Land Degradation Enabling Activities—Albania TF 13194 2013 2016 n.a. 150,000.00 95 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 96 Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C Project Approval Closing Approved No. ID Project Loan FY FY Practice Amount ($) 16 P121186 Water Resources and Irrigation Project TF 14255 2013 2019 WAT 5,094,000.00 17 P132129 Revision of the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action TF 12599 2013 2015 n.a. 220,000.00 Plan 18 P096263 Land Administration and Management Project (LAMP) TF 12392 2013 2014 URS 2,706,130.77 19 P116632 Albania: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative Im- TF 12148 2012 2013 EAE 110,000.00 plementation 20 P127684 Supporting to increasing security of Albania’s e-procure- TF 11176 2012 2013 GOV 100,000.00 ment system 21 P120961 Free Standing TF on Natural Resource Development TF 11576 2012 2014 ENR 2,716,027.50 22 P125591 REPARIS Albania MDTF No. TF098923 Corporate Finan- TF 98923 2011 2014 GOV 1,819,875.96 cial Reporting Enhancement Project 23 P122216 Albania—Mini Development Marketplace for Governance TF 97338 2011 2013 n.a. 140,000.00 24 P110845 Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Project TF 99141 2011 2013 URS 600,000.00 25 P102733 Water Sector Investment Project TF 93096 2010 2013 WAT 980,000.00 26 P116632 Albania: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative Im- TF 96009 2010 2012 EAE 275,000.00 plementation 27 P114789 Strengthening Aarhus Convention Implementation TF 94711 2010 2013 TDD 370,000.00 28 P113978 Youth Empowerment through Community Development TF 93709 2010 2014 URS 1,155,700.00 in Albania 29 P084605 ALBANIA/MONTENEGRO LAKE SKHODER INTEGRATED TF 91937 2009 2013 n.a. 1,990,000.00 ECOSYSTEM MANAGE 30 P105143 Albania MD Capacity Building and Support to Implement TF 90843 2008 2012 GOV 6,391,344.03 the Integrated Planning System 31 P085089 Albania Butrint Global Biodiversity and Heritage Conser- TF 56176 2008 2011 ENR 950,000.00 vation Project Approval Closing Approved No. ID Project Loan FY FY Practice Amount ($) 32 P096263 Land Administration and Management Project (LAMP) TF 90309 2008 2014 URS 2,447,012.76 33 P096263 Land Administration and Management Project (LAMP) TF 56729 2008 2013 URS 1,537,000.00 34 P091145 Afforestation and Reforestation of Refused Lands in Alba- TF 56871 2007 2019 ENR 1,013,584.00 nia BioCarbon Fund Project 35 P100273 Avian Influenza Control and Human Pandemic Prepared- TF 56728 2007 2011 URS 800,000.00 ness and Response Project 36 P082814 Health System Modernization Project TF 55804 2006 2012 HNP 1,610,000.00 37 P086807 Integrated Coastal Zone Management and Clean-Up TF 55922 2006 2015 ENR 2,509,878.00 Project (APL #1) 38 P086807 Integrated Coastal Zone Management and Clean-Up TF 55065 2006 2015 ENR 2,230,000.00 Project (APL #1) 39 P086807 Integrated Coastal Zone Management and Clean-Up TF 54400 2006 2011 ENR 3,113,333.00 Project (APL #1) 40 P082375 Natural Resources Development Project TF 54995 2006 2011 AGR 5,047,773.57 41 P089061 Albania—Natural Resources Development Project TF 54926 2005 2012 AGR 5,000,000.00 Source: Client Connection and Business Intelligence as of April 16, 2019. Note: AGR = Agriculture; APL = adaptable program loan; EAE = Energy and Extractives; ENR = Environment and Natural Resources; FCI = Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation; FSA = financial supervisory authority; FY = fiscal year; GOV = Governance; HNP = Health, Nutrition, and Population; IPS = implementation planning system; MDTF = multidonor trust fund; MD = multi-donor; MTI = Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment; n.a. = not applicable; SECO = Swiss State Secretariat of Economic Affairs; TDD = Transport and Digital Development; TF = trust fund; URS = Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience; WAT = Water. 97 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group EG Ratings for World Bank Projects for Albania, Europe and Table C.5. I Central Asia Region, and World, FY11–19 RDO Rated MS Total Outcome Rated S or Below Evaluated (percent) (percent) ($, Region millions) (no.) By volume By number By volume By number Albania 451.2 17 86.2 76.5 20.2 35.3 ECA 32,900.2 334 90.3 79.5 61.4 57.1 World 183,979.2 2,083 82.3 72.7 55.7 45.3 Source: World Bank Business Intelligence as of April 11, 2019. Note: ECA = Europe and Central Asia; FY = fiscal year; IEG = Independent Evaluation Group; MS = moder- ately satisfactory; RDO = risk to development outcome; S = satisfactory. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C 98 Table C.6. IEG Ratings for World Bank Projects for Albania, FY11–19 Total Evaluated Exit Project Project ($, IEG IEG Risk Agreement FY ID Name millions) Outcome to DO Type 2011 P078949 TRANSPORT 26.1 Satisfactory Moderate IBRD 2011 P082375 NATURAL 6.9 Moderately Significant IDA RES DEVT satisfactory 2011 P100273 AVIAN FLU— 3.9 Moderately Significant IDA AL satisfactory 2012 P077526 POWER 24.7 Unsatisfac- High IDA SECTOR tory GENER and RESTRCT’G 2012 P082814 HEALTH 14.5 Moderately Significant IDA SYST MOD unsatisfac- tory 2012 P090656 ECSEE APL2 22.3 Moderately Significant IDA (ALBANIA) satisfactory 2012 P096643 AL Busi Env 9.2 Moderately Moderate IBRD Ref and Insti satisfactory Streng 2012 P105143 IPS Imple- 0.0 Moderately Moderate RETF mentation satisfactory 2012 P116937 Social Sector 25.0 Moderately Moderate IBRD Reform DPL satisfactory 2013 P055383 SOC SERV 16.4 Moderately Moderate IDA Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group DEVT satisfactory 2013 P078933 EDUC EXCEL 14.6 Moderately Moderate IDA and EQUITY unsatisfac- tory 2013 P107833 SECONDARY 18.7 Highly sat- Moderate IDA AND LOCAL isfactory ROADS 2013 P110845 DISASTER 8.3 Moderately Significant IBRD RISK MITIGA- unsatisfac- TION tory 2014 P096263 LAND ADMIN 33.0 Satisfactory Significant IBRD and MGMT PROJ 2015 P086807 COASTAL 15.8 Moderately Significant IDA ZONE MGMT satisfactory (APL #1) 99 Total Evaluated Exit Project Project ($, IEG IEG Risk Agreement FY ID Name millions) Outcome to DO Type 2015 P146280 AL Financial 96.3 Satisfactory Significant IBRD Sector DPL 2016 P147226 Public Fi- 115.5 Satisfactory Significant IBRD nance DPL     Total 451.20       Source: World Bank Business Intelligence as of April 11, 2019. Note: World Bank projects include International Development Association, International Bank for Recon- struction and Development, Global Environment Facility, and recipient-executed trust fund projects. AL = Albania; DO = development objective; DPL = development policy loan; FY = fiscal year; IBRD = Inter- national Bank for Reconstruction and Development; IDA = International Development Association; IEG = Independent Evaluation Group ; RETF = recipient-executed trust fund. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C 100 Table C.7. Projects at Risk for Albania and Comparators, FY11–19 Avg. Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FY11–19 Albania                   Projects (no.) 12 8 5 7 9 9 12 11 11 9 Projects at risk (no.) 2 3 3 2 1 2 2 3 4 2 Projects at risk (percent) 16.7 37.5 60.0 28.6 11.1 22.2 16.7 27.3 36.4 26.2 Net commitment 248.6 218.5 198.7 469.7 632.2 544.2 785.2 718.3 718.3 504 ($, millions) Commitment at risk 50.0 59.1 108.7 96.9 85.3 142.2 96.9 270.0 331.0 138 ($, millions) Commitment at risk (per- 20.1 27.1 54.7 20.6 13.5 26.1 12.3 37.6 46.1 27.4 cent) Europe and Central Asia                   Projects (no.) 242 201 189 202 207 197 202 204 205 205 Projects at risk (no.) 38 41 45 36 30 40 34 45 46 39 Projects at risk (percent) 15.7 20.4 23.8 17.8 14.5 20.3 16.8 22.1 22.4 19.2 Net commitment 22,413.8 22,859.4 24,478.6 26,638.2 26,192.1 27,213.5 25,219.5 26,524.9 26,247.6 25,310 Commitment at risk 2,095.9 2,644.2 3,817.5 2,619.0 3,507.2 4,288.2 5,460.1 4,138.4 5,343.9 3,768 101 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 102 Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C Avg. Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FY11–19 Commitment at risk 9.4 11.6 15.6 9.8 13.4 15.8 21.7 15.6 20.4 14.9 (percent) World                   Projects (no.) 1,454 1,371 1,337 1,386 1,402 1,398 1,459 1,497 1,517 1,425 Projects at risk (no.) 302 304 339 329 339 336 344 348 366 334 Projects at risk (percent) 20.8 22.2 25.4 23.7 24.2 24.0 23.6 23.2 24.1 23.5 Net commitment 165,792.3 166,208.1 169,430.6 183,153.9 191,907.8 207,350.0 212,502.9 229,965.6 231,962.0 195,364 Commitment at risk 22,573.0 23,324.5 39,638.0 39,748.6 44,430.7 42,715.1 50,837.9 48,148.8 53,702.3 40,569 Commitment at risk (per- 13.6 14.0 23.4 21.7 23.2 20.6 23.9 20.9 23.2 20.8 cent) Source: World Bank Business Intelligence database as of April 10, 2019. Note: Only International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and International Development Association agreement types are included. FY = fiscal year. Table C.8. IFC Investments in Albania, FY11–19 Project Primary Project Short Institution CMT Project Sector Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Net ID Name Number FY Status Name Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity CMT  IFC investments in Albania committed in FY11–19 ($, thousands) 33378 Kurum 747848 2014 Active Electric 144,261 44,911 — 44,911 4,039 — 40,872 — 40,872 Hydro power 32190 Credins 568237 2013 Closed Finance 12,581 11,806 — 11,806 6,736 — 5,070 — 5,070 EE/RE and in- surance 32749 Credins 568237 2013 Closed Finance 50 50 — 50 50 — — — — Swap and in- surance 33077 Bankers 622404 2013 Closed Oil, gas, 439,000 50,000 — 50,000 50,000 — — — — II and min- ing 33093 GTFP 696024 2013 Active Finance 2,000 718 — 718 — — 718 — 718 UNION and in- BANK surance 29208 CEZ 685904 2012 Closed Electric 69,158 72,378 — 72,378 44,046 — 28,332 — 28,332 Albania power 103 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 104 Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C Project Primary Project Short Institution CMT Project Sector Project Original Original Original Loan Equity Net Net Net ID Name Number FY Status Name Size Loan Equity CMT Cancel Cancel Loan Equity CMT 30979 enso 692149 2012 Active Electric 139,728 — 8,662 8,662 — — 8,662 8,662 8,662 Albania power 32001 Antea RI 629688 2012 Active Non- 6,698 — 6,698 6,698 — — 6,698 6,698 6,698 metallic mineral product manufac- turing     Subtotal 813,475 179,863 15,360 195,223 104,871 — 90,352 15,360 90,352 IFC investments in Albania committed before FY11 but active during FY11–19 ($, thousands) 25323 SEF 564441 2007 Active Primary 6,791 2,632 — 2,632 — — 2,632 — 2,632 Kon- metals struksion Subtotal 6,791 2,632 — 2,632 — — 2,632 — 2,632 Total 820,266 182,495 15,360 197,855 104,871 — 92,984 15,360 92,984 Source: International Finance Corporation management information system as of April 17, 2019. Note: — = not available; CMT = commitment; FY = fiscal year; GTFP = Global Trade Finance Programme; IFC = International Finance Corporation. Table C.9. IFC Advisory Services in Albania, FY11–19 Project Impl Impl Project Total Funds ID Project Name Start FY End FY Status Business Line Name ($) IFC advisory services in Albania committed in FY11–19 601642 Western Balkans Regional Investment Policy and 2017 2020 Active Equitable Growth, Finance 2,765,999 Promotion Project and Institutions 600476 Albania Investment climate and agribusiness 2016 2020 Active Equitable Growth, Finance 2,279,277 competitiveness and Institutions 601598 Albania: establishment of a day-ahead electricity 2016 2020 Active Transaction Advisory 773,999 market 600511 Albania Labs PPP 2015 2019 Hold Transaction Advisory 718,550 599428 ECA DR Western Balkan 2014 2019 Active Equitable Growth, Finance 2,502,136 and Institutions 600200 AlbPetrol PPP 2014 2015 Terminat- Transaction Advisory 1,276,142 ed 599053 Albania Solid Waste 2013 2017 Closed Transaction Advisory 1,009,189 583387 Albanian hydroelectric power plant privatization 2012 2013 Closed Transaction Advisory 923,665 29970 Albanian Highway 2011 2018 Closed Transaction Advisory 2,421,449 566368 Albania Subnational Regulatory Simplification and 2011 2012 Closed Investment Climate 710,975 Investment Generation   Subtotal         15,381,381 105 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 106 Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C Project Impl Impl Project Total Funds ID Project Name Start FY End FY Status Business Line Name ($) IFC advisory services in Albania committed before FY11 but active during FY11–19 568367 Residential Energy Efficiency Project, Albania 2010 2016 Closed Financial Institutions 769,201 Group 575568 Renewable Energy Albania Small Hydro Power 2010 2016 Closed Infrastructure and Natural 1,286,580 Resources 563668 ADR ALBANIA Phase II 2009 2011 Closed Investment Climate 247,787 564807 Integrated Solid Waste Management, Albania 2009 2012 Closed Sustainable Business 485,000 Advisory 565267 ISTR AL Exten 2009 2012 Closed Sustainable Business 434,297 Advisory 567127 CorpGovAlb-II 2009 2012 Closed Sustainable Business 398,192 Advisory   Subtotal 3,621,057   Total 19,002,438 Source:  International Finance Corporation management information system of May 31, 2018. Note: This table does not include regional projects: 601333—ECA Energy Solutions for Power and District Heating Sector, ECA Power Program; 595107—see Tax Transparency and Simplification Project; 595728—Balkan Renewable Energy Program; 571707—ECA Risk Management and ECA SME Banking Program (2009–14). ADR = Alternative Dispute Resolutions; AL = Albania; DR = debt resolution; ECA = Europe and Central Asia; FY = fiscal year; IFC = International Finance Corporation; Impl. = implementation; ISTR = International Standards and Technical Regulations; PPP = public-private partnership; SME = small and medium enterprises.. Table C.10. IFC Net Commitment Activity by Sector, Product Category in Albania, FY11–19 Sector 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Long-term investment com-                   mitment Financial markets — — 11,814,350 314,820 (7,371,270) — (50,000) — 4,707,900 Other manufacturing, agribusi- — — — 45,435,272 (5,034,094) 7,970 — — 40,409,147 ness, and services sectors Manufacturing — 6,758,006 48,700 58,300 (246,700) (3,750) 25,650 27,650 6,667,856 Tourism, retail, construction, 1,246,875 (1,080,150) (3,879,760) 56,350 (6,296,050) — — — (9,952,735) and real estate Oil, gas, and mining — 25,000,000 50,000,000 — (2,000,000) — (61,770,670) — 11,229,330 Infrastructure — 73,698,800 (40,604,614) 217,550 (557,552) (8,475) 57,970 62,490 32,866,169 Total IFC long-term invest- 1,246,875 104,376,656 17,378,676 46,082,291 (21,505,666) (4,255) (61,737,050) 90,140 85,927,667 ment commitment Short-term finance/trade finance Average outstanding balance 199,373 — — 133,429 224,657 — — — 557,459 Source: International Finance Corporation management information system as of April 17, 2019. Note: International Finance Corporation (IFC) began reporting average outstanding short-term commitments (not total commitments) in fiscal year 2015 and no longer aggregates short-term commitments with long-term commitments. The Independent Evaluation Group uses net commitment number for IFC’s long-term investment. For trade finance guarantees under the Global Trade Finance Program, average commitment numbers have been used. — = not available; FY = fiscal year. 107 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 108 Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix C FC Original Commitment Activity by Sector, Product Category in Albania, FY11–15 Table C.11. I Sector 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Financial markets 0 0 11,856,200 0 0 11,856,200 Trade finance 398,745 0 0 266,859 449,315 1,114,918 Other manufacturing, agribusi- 0 0 0 44,911,350 0 44,911,350 ness, and services sectors Manufacturing 0 6,697,890 0 0 0 6,697,890 Oil, gas, and mining 0 25,000,000 50,000,000 0 0 75,000,000 Infrastructure 0 81,039,400 0 0 0 81,039,400 Total 398,745 112,737,290 61,856,200 45,178,209 449,315 220,619,758 Source: International Finance Corporation management information system as of April 17, 2019. Note: Data available only up to FY15. FY = fiscal year; IFC = International Finance Corporation.  ultilateral Investment Guarantee Agency Activities in Albania Table C.12. M Fiscal Gross Exposure Project Name Year Status Sector ($, millions) Alpha Bank Albania Sh.a. 2016 Active Banking 52.9 RBI Central Bank manda- 2015 Active Banking 111.2 tory reserves coverage Energji Ashta Shpk (Ashta) 2012 Active Power 159.4 ProCredit Bank S.A. 2011 Active Banking 25 Total 348.5 Source: Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency April 23, 2019 with project brief.   Average annual International Development Association and International Bank for Recon- 1 struction and Development disbursements accounted for 44  percent of average annual total official development assistance disbursements during fiscal years 2011–16 (Independent Eval- uation Group calculation based on World Bank Business Intelligence and Organisation for Eco- nomic Co-operation and Development aid data). Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 109 Appendix D. Results Framework  esults Framework: World Bank Group Objectives, Outcomes, Table D.1. R and Indicators Objectives and Outcomes Sought Associated Indicators Pillar 1: Strengthening macrofinancial management and public service delivery 1.1. Strengthening fiscal management and public service delivery Improved credibility and con- » Adoption of a fiscal rule or equivalent anchor for testability of fiscal policy, national fiscal policy by 2014 economic statistics, reporting » Medium-term budget planning process includes on development outcomes, and institutionalized program for ex post budget governance of public spending analysis by 2013 (FY11–14) » NSDI progress reports include reporting on budget execution and independent statistical information on targets and outcomes » All public investment planned through new pro- cedures and fully integrated in the medium-term budget planning process by 2013 » Further reduction in reported share of contract value that respondent firms report paying to obtain government contracts (status: 4.4 percent; target: closer to subregional averages) Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix D 110 Objectives and Outcomes Sought Associated Indicators Support improved fiscal sustain- » No accumulation of new central government ability (FY15–19) arrears and arrears backlog cleared (baseline: 2.6 percent of GDP, 2014; target: no central gov- ernment arrears, 2018) » Supplementary progress indicators included: » No further accumulation of state-owned en- terprises and budgetary institutions payables and arrears to energy companies by the end of 2016 (from CPF objective 2c on energy security) » Reduce public and publicly guaranteed debt- to-GDP ratio to 65 percent by 2017, 61 percent by 2018, and 60 percent by 2019 (baseline: 71 percent) » Percentage deviation between actual and budgeted expenditure not more than 5 per- cent in 2015, 2016, and 2017 » Central government arrears stock as of the end of 2015 is less than 1 percent of GDP » Revised Organic Budget Law approved by parliament (2015) » 50 percent and 70 percent of municipalities prepare annual municipal development plans, 2018 and 2019, respectively Strengthen public investment » All road sector investment appraised for eco- management in the transport nomic viability and aligned with medium-term sector (FY15–19) budget framework (baseline: ad hoc planning Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group and budgeting of capital investments, 2015 [tar- get: all road sector investments aligned with the medium-term budget framework, 2018]) » Supplementary progress indicators included: » Development of sustainable PPP for improving road conditions through PPP advisory services and investment » Road investment program prepared with feasibili- ty, economic analysis, prioritization, and resource requirements for implementation; draft prepared (2016) and approved (2017) 111 Objectives and Outcomes Sought Associated Indicators Improve efficiency of public ser- » Reduction in time required for citizens to obtain vice delivery (FY15–19) targeted administrative services (baseline: 0 per- cent, 2014; target: 15 percent reduction, 2019) » Supplementary progress indicators included: » Number of key services with business pro- cess reengineered » Number of key services with level 2, 3, and 4 automation 1.2. Strengthening the financial sector Improve access to credit (CPS » Local banks’ portfolios stronger, more efficient, FY11–14) and diversified » More loans made to local companies (especially SMEs); services to clients have improved » Service quality of microfinance institutions improved, lending has increased, especially in remote rural areas Milestones: » Balance between demand and supply for lending has improved » Banks have improved compliance with Bank of Albania regulations for managing nonperforming loans » Banks’ loan portfolios more diversified » Network of microfinance institutions has expand- ed throughout Albania, offers more diversified products Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix D Strengthen financial sector stability » Back-stop facility with the Ministry of Finance for (added in CPSPR April 2013) the Deposit Insurance Authority established Strengthen financial sector stability » Foreign bank branches (which retain capital in (CPF FY14–19) country) converted into subsidiaries » Reduce NPLs to 20 percent of total loans or below (NPL baseline: 24.9 percent, 2014; target: 20 percent, 2018) » Supplementary progress indicators include the following: » NPLs decline (from 24.9 percent in 2014) by 2 percentage points in 2016 and another 2 percentage points by 2018 112 Objectives and Outcomes Sought Associated Indicators Pillar 2: Improving the conditions for private sector development 2.1. Improving the business climate and developing sustainable tourism Increased satisfaction with quality » Business Environment and Enterprise Performance of regulations (FY11–14) Surveys; customized survey (base: 3.3 in 2005; tar- get: 2.5 in 2012; 1 = very satisfied; 6 = very dissatisfied) » Regulatory framework for business inspections revised and adopted » Increase in government officials trained in tech- niques for regulatory review (status: 3 in 2008; target: 175 in 2011) Improving private sector com- » Bylaws and regulations developed for an audit pliance with selected EU and oversight system in line with EU directives international requirements, partic- » National Accounting Council regularly publishes ularly with respect to (i) accounting updated International Financial Reporting Standards and auditing standards, and (ii) » EU-compliant National Metrology Laboratory compliance with EU standards for fully operational exports (FY11–14) Contribute to improved business » Improve Doing Business distance to frontier environment (FY15–FY19) (baseline: Doing Business 2015, 66; target: DB2018: 74) » Increase number of firms, especially in export- oriented sectors; Target 3–5% increase in number of firms Baseline: 111,000 firms—2013, Target: additional 4400—2018 Support sustainable tourism de- » Key infrastructure (port, water supply, landfill) op- velopment (FY15–FY19). erational in south coast for sustainable tourism: Baseline: Absence of key operational infrastruc- Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group ture—2012, Target: Key infrastructure operation- al—2015 2.2. Improving land and property registration Improving business regulations » Reduction in the time for registering immovable and reducing compliance costs for property transactions by the private sector (FY11–14) » Developing a land and property rights regime » Complete computerization of IPRO in Tirana Provide expanded and inclusive » Increase in percentage of properties registered in land and property registration the digital registration system, gender disaggre- (FY15–19) gated, to 15 percent (indicator dropped because (Dropped because of cancellation of cancellation of the proposed Integrated Land of the proposed Integrated Land Management Project) Management Project) » Increase in the number of property transactions submitted online from 10 percent to 20 percent (indicator dropped because of cancellation of the proposed Integrated Land Management Project) 113 Objectives and Outcomes Sought Associated Indicators 2.3. Improving access to and quality of infrastructure services a. Energy Improved domestic energy supply » Complete construction and initiate commercial (800 gigawatts of additional power operations of Vlore Thermal Power Plant supply per year), transmissions » Rehabilitation of three substations completed system operation, safety and op- » Complete restructuring of transmission system erational efficiency of hydropower operator and business plan, including new tariffs dams (FY11–14) approved » Remedial measures of high and medium priority targeting spillways and other dam infrastructure completed Improved cost recovery within » Timely tariff adjustments approved for distribution the electricity distribution system system operator and retail public supplier in con- (FY11–14) formity with the agreed regulatory statement » Financial recovery program in the sector to allow the Albanian Power Corporation (KESH) to clear its arrears to suppliers Promote energy efficiency and use » Number of projects signed (base: 0 in 2010; tar- of cleaner energy (FY11–14) get: 5 in 2013) » Cooperation agreements signed with five banks to implement the Residential Energy Efficiency Program » Revised step-in rights law encourages banks to finance small hydropower plants Support enhanced energy Electricity distribution losses are 19 percent (base- security, efficiency, and supply line: 38 percent, 2014) (FY15–19) Electricity customer collection rate is maintained at Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix D a sustainable average rate of 90 percent between 2015 and 2019 (baseline: 80 percent, 2014) Electricity market deregulation on the demand side reached 20 percent of total net demand (baseline: 9 percent, 2014; target year: 2018) 114 Objectives and Outcomes Sought Associated Indicators b. Roads Improved road conditions and 108 kilometers in local and secondary roads recon- sustainability of road investments structed and rehabilitated (by World Bank project) (FY11–14) Improved road access to services and markets (sta- tus: 0 in 2010; target: 26 communities in 2012) Increase in share of regional and local roads in better conditions (status: 0 kilometers in 2009; target: 108 in 2012) Creation of an asset management system for secondary local roads and Albania National Road Authority Percentage of the national road network covered by performance-based maintenance contract (status 0 in 2009; target 10 percent in 2014) Provide strengthened public in- All road sector investments appraised for econom- vestment management in trans- ic viability and aligned with medium-term budget port sector (FY15–19) framework (baseline: ad hoc planning and bud- (linked to the public finance pillar) geting of capital investments, 2015; target: all road sector investments aligned with the medium-term budget framework, 2018) Supplementary progress indicator: development of sustainable PPP for improving road conditions through PPP advisory services and facilitation of investments in financing for highways to improve access to transportation for 100,000 people Pillar 3: Improving the management of land, water, and the environment 3.1. Reducing vulnerabilities to climate change, improving land productivity (erosion con- trol and irrigation), and improving waste management Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group Reducing upstream risks of ero- Continued implementation of community-based sion by improving management microcatchment management plans in 30 com- of Albania’s wetlands, forest, and munes and community-based forest and pasture pasture resources and water management plans in 239 communes catchments to (i) increase income 400,000 tons of erosion reduced earned from activities in commu- Restructured forest extension services nal forest and pasturelands, and (ii) 181,000 tons of carbon sequestered from sustain- reduce erosion (FY11–14) able forest activities 115 Objectives and Outcomes Sought Associated Indicators Improved critical public environ- At least 5,000 tons of household waste safely dis- mental infrastructure and munici- posed of in accordance with EU standards along the pal services (FY11–14) south coast 48,000 tons of sewerage treated in coastal cities Improvements in the framework for Capacity-building programs provided to the Na- management of water resources tional Water Council, water user association, and (FY11–14) drainage boards Joint Albania-Montenegro Lake Shkodra manage- ment cross-border institution fully operational Contribute to increased produc- 24,000 hectares provided with improved irrigation tivity and sustainability of land use and drainage services in agricultural land benefiting (FY15–19) water users Sustainable land management practices adopted for 7,000 hectares of additional land area Pillar 4: Improving the quality of service provision in the social sectors 4.1. Improving access to and quality of education services and understanding labor mar- ket constraints Improved access to and quality of Complete reform of all three grades of secondary secondary education (FY11–14) curricula Increase in secondary enrollment (status: 60 percent in 2009; target: 100 percent at the end of 2014) Increase in teachers participating in continuous pro- fessional development (status: 25 percent in 2009; target: 70 percent at the end of 2010) Triple shifts eliminated, double shifts reduced in secondary schools Construction of 12 new schools, extension of 8 Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix D existing schools, and rehabilitation of 10 schools completed by the end of 2013 Reformed higher education Performance-based financing in place for all 11 pub- institutions with fully functioning lic universities by 2014 quality assurance system (FY11–14) 100 university labs provided with modern didactic equipment A fully functioning quality assurance system for higher education 4.2. Improving access to and quality of health services Improved access to quality primary Universal retraining of primary health care providers health care (FY11–14) completed Basic benefits package for primary health care es- tablished and implemented 116 Objectives and Outcomes Sought Associated Indicators Improve the efficiency of public Decrease in the share of public sector spending on spending on health care (FY11–14) hospital care Unification of primary and secondary health care purchasing under the Health Insurance Institute Increase in the population enrolled in health insur- ance (status: less than 10 percent in 2009; target: 70 percent in 2014) All public hospitals financed under performance-based contracts to achieve efficiency in spending and reduce share of hospital spending in total health spending (status: 58 percent; target: 48 percent) Contribute to increased efficiency Reduced percentage of income spent on out-of- and access to health services pocket health expenditures for the poorest quintile (FY15–19) (baseline: 9 percent, 2012; target: 7 percent, 2018) 4.3. Improving the coverage, targeting, and efficiency of social protection services Improve the solvency of the pen- Parametric reform of the pension system sion system (FY11–14) Gradual decline of 1 percent per year in dependency Improve the participation in the rate—total number of beneficiaries divided by total pension system (FY11–14) number of contributors (baseline: 83 percent, 2013) Improved participation: 30 percent of the working-age (ages 15–64) population (baseline in 2010, target: Improved efficiency of social as- 1–2 percent increase in the CPS period) sistance expenditure and benefit Assessment procedures and eligibility criteria administration to increase the revised for disability benefits (including disability percentage of the poor receiving pensions) means-test-based social assis- Electronic central registry of beneficiaries introduced tance and to improve the equity and fully operational Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group and effectiveness of the Ndihma Coverage of the poor by the Ndihma Ekonomike Ekonomike program (FY11–14) program estimated to increase (status: 22 percent, 2008; target: 40 percent, 2014) Improved financial management systems and fraud and error controls for Ndihma Ekonomike fully op- erational 117 Objectives and Outcomes Sought Associated Indicators Support improved equity and ac- Coverage of the poorest income quintile by Ndih- cess to social protection services ma Ekonomike increases to 38 percent (baseline: (FY15–19) 25 percent, 2012; target: 38 percent, 2019) Pensions sublaws developed to implement pension reforms (2015) Adoption of social model for disability assistance eligibility criteria (2017) Establishment of management information system for social assistance programs (2017) Operations guidelines adopted for system-based inspection for detection and remedy of fraud and error in social assistance programs, implementation of guidelines (2018) Percentage of households receiving benefits for Ndihma Ekonomike program that have been screened for eligibility using the Unified Scoring For- mula (baseline: 0; target: 50 percent, 2016; 95 per- cent nationwide, 2018) 4.4. Improving access to and quality of water and sanitation services Improve the conservation, man- Improved critical public environmental infrastruc- agement, and efficient use of ture and municipal services as evidenced by tons Albania’s water resources (FY11–14) of treated sewerage in coastal cities (target: 48,000 tons) Provide enhanced coverage of Piped household water and sewer connections that water and sanitation services are benefiting from rehabilitation works undertaken (FY15–19) by the Water Sector Investment Project (Indicators and targets: 77,000 household water connections; 3,000 sewer connections) Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix D Source: Independent Evaluation Group. Note: CPF = Country Partnership Framework; CPS = Country Partnership Strategy; CPSPR = CPS Prog- ress Report; EU = European Union; FY = fiscal year; GDP = gross domestic product; IPRO = Immovable Property Registration Office; NPL = nonperforming loan; NSDI = National Strategy for Development and Integration; PPP = public-private partnership; SME = small and medium enterprise. 118 Appendix E. Donor Coordination World Bank Group coordination with other partners was good in fiscal man- agement, the financial sector, and land administration, generally positioning it at the policy and strategy level. In several areas, Bank Group advisory services and analytics (ASA) induced a division of labor among partners where it was providing (sometimes joint) policy advice in addition to supporting specific capacity-building initiatives. In public finance management and the financial sector, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund provided intellec- tual leadership in helping the government articulate the reform agenda based on which support from several other donors coalesced. More generally, World Bank–International Monetary Fund collaboration was strong, with World Bank technical work notably contributing to the International Monetary Fund pro- gram beginning in 2014. In parallel, the World Bank (sometimes in partnership with the International Finance Corporation [IFC]), helped execute key reforms (such as resolution of nonperforming loans) and provided technical assistance to build capacity (for example, of Albanian Financial Supervisory Authority to regulate and supervise nonbank financial institutions). In land administration, the World Bank coordinated actively with key partners, acting as a convener of donor support and leading the land administration strategy dialogue with Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group the government. Labor was adequately coordinated and divided among part- ners; using advisory services and technical assistance, the World Bank led an initiative working with the European Union (EU) to prepare an integrated land management program road map that underpins the government’s land admin- istration reform strategy. A similar pattern could be seen in water resource management, irrigation, forestry, and land use management. A close partnership with the Swedish International Development Cooperation Authority allowed World Bank financing to be concentrated on policy dialogue with the government and infrastructure development for irrigation. Through trust funds, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Authority helped provide technical assistance for river basin management, forest inventory, and land registra- 119 tion (through a twinning arrangement with the Swedish Cadastral Agency), and support for Albania meeting the instrument for preaccession assistance for rural development conditions for EU accession through a program with the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. The EU has been a strong partner on climate change mitigation, providing grant financing for techni- cal assistance aimed at policy formulation and strategy development. In the social sectors, the World Bank similarly provided intellectual leadership and led the policy dialogue, and coordination and collaboration with other partners was good. In education, the World Bank worked closely with other partners to implement its legacy Education Excellence and Equity Project, which gave it a good handle on sector policy dialogue, but it exited the sector after 2013, shifting its focus to intellectual leadership on skills and jobs. In health, the World Bank was a key player during the Country Partnership Strat- egy period through ASA and Health System Modernization Project financing (with assistance of a Japan Professional Human Resource Development Project grant). ASA provided significant intellectual contributions to the diagnosis of key sector challenges and the development of options for reform very much focusing on access to, efficiency, and quality of service delivery, and financ- ing of health care services. In the Country Partnership Framework period, the World Bank shifted its focus to improving hospitals’ management and perfor- mance-based resource allocation, health management information systems, and further financial access to health care, dividing labor with the Swiss Devel- opment Cooperation, which has supported primary health care since 2013. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix E In social protection, World Bank ASA (including patient consensus building) resulted in shared diagnostics and vision for reform, where the World Bank took the lead on pensions and social and disability assistance reform while other donors focused on social care reform and on strengthening the capacity of local governments to provide these services. Toward the end of the evalu- ation period, the World Bank initiated regional work on the vulnerable Roma minority in collaboration with other partners. Regarding business climate, energy, road transport, and urban water and sanitation, coordination with other partners was good, but Bank Group stra- tegic leadership was less evident. Regarding the business climate, labor was adequately divided, with the Bank Group focusing on enhancing the quality 120 of regulations, notably improving regulatory frameworks and drafting laws. Collaboration was limited in the cross-cutting area of tourism development. The World Bank and IFC collaborated well with other major partners—the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and KfW—in their support for Albania’s energy sector. The World Bank coordinated with KfW to improve the safety, capacity, and efficiency of the country’s largest hydro facilities and supported sector reform elements together with KfW. These covered unbundling the electricity sector and laying the basis for liberalizing the electricity market for integrating it with the larger European market. IFC collaborated well with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Develop- ment to contribute to the successful opening of Albania’s oil sector and help address the sector’s environmental legacy issues. In transport, World Bank convening helped raise commitments of $386 million from a diverse group of partners, each of which financed specific segments of the government’s Secondary and Local Roads Improvement Program. In water and sanitation, the World Bank has concentrated on a single major city, Durres, and coordi- nates closely with KfW (which has long-term support programs for water and sanitation services in several other Albanian cities) and the German Agency for International Cooperation (which is the lead donor partner for rural wa- ter and sanitation service and sector policy dialogue). Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 121 Appendix F. World Bank Group Support for European Union Accession World Bank Group support for meeting the requirements of European Union (EU) accession was consistent and often, though not always, explicit. In public financial management, the financial sector, energy, water and san- itation, and environmental protection reforms and investments supported by the Bank Group helped align laws, regulations, practices, and governance arrangements with the EU acquis. In the financial sector, World Bank support played a key role in overhauling Albania’s legal and regulatory framework to meet EU standards for the regulation and supervision of bank and nonbank financial institutions and for the resolution of nonperforming assets and distressed institutions, per chapter 9 of the acquis (on financial services). In education, World Bank support for revising and implementing the secondary education curriculum helped align it more closely with European standards. Regarding higher education, World Bank support helped assure Albania’s continued adherence to the Bologna Process, which seeks compatibility in standards and quality of higher education institutions across EU members. The International Finance Corporation’s support for cleanup of the legacy Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix F of decades of environmental damage from Albania’s state-run petroleum industry helped conform to EU environmental standards.1 A limited part of the Bank Group’s engagement helped lay the groundwork for EU accession through regional initiatives. The World Bank played an active if informal role in promoting improved cooperation among countries in southeastern Europe at key junctures. For example, it reportedly played a key role in brokering a historic rapprochement between Albania and Serbia.2 Formal project initiatives selectively supported group progress on the EU accession agenda. In energy, for instance, the World Bank has notably taken a regional approach to strengthening the safety of dams and hydroelectric production.3 Recently, the Bank Group has begun delivering advisory ser- vices and financing to support implementation of commitments under the 122 Berlin Process.4 One area of focus concerns the harmonization of investment policies with the EU and broader global community, where the Bank Group is helping the countries prepare and implement individually tailored but har- monized reform action plans covering incentives and promotion, retention and protection, and so on. 1  Chapter 27 of the acquis, on environment. The associated International Finance Corporation investments were Bankers Petroleum Albania Ltd. and Bankers Petroleum II, both approved in fiscal year (FY) 2013. Investments supported gradual transfer of oil and gas operations from the state company Albpetrol to a Canadian oil and gas exploration and production company, with attendant improvements in environmental and social safeguards. 2  As indicated previously, a key milestone was a 2014 visit by Albanian Prime Minister Edvin Rama to Serbia in 2014. 3  The World Bank supported the alignment of dam safety standards across southeastern European countries, including Albania. The regional lending instrument is the FY08 Energy Community of Southeastern Europe APL5 Dam Safety Project, which has been restructured to rectify initial design flaws and received two rounds of additional financing, now targeted for completion in FY20. Earlier, the Energy Community of Southeastern Europe APL2 Trans- mission Project, which closed in FY12, had helped strengthen interconnectedness of regional power systems. Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 4  The Berlin Process is an initiative to boost regional cooperation among the Western Balkan countries, including Albania, and their European integration. 123 Appendix G. Risk to Implementation Ratings During fiscal years 2010–19, there were 19 International Bank for Recon- struction and Development—International Development Association proj- ects in Albania, with risk to implementation ratings ranging from high to low. Table G.1 presents the risk rating by category and by overall implemen- tation risk. About 64 percent of the projects were rated high and substantial, and 26 percent were rated moderate. Only 1 project was rated low, and 1 did not have a rating. Risks are grouped into five different categories: capacity, stakeholder, social and environmental, political and governance, and imple- mentation and sustainability. Although most of the categories are rated sub- stantial, the category rated with high risk is capacity, followed by stakeholder and implementation and sustainability risks (table G.1). The breakdown of the analysis is: » Capacity risks: About 63 percent of the projects rated capacity risk as sub- stantial, followed by high (16 percent) and moderate (11 percent). Three projects rated this category high. » Stakeholder risks: About 53 percent of the projects rated stakeholder risks as substantial, and 21 percent (4 projects) rated it as low. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix G » Social and environmental risks: Most of the projects (37 percent) rated social and environmental risks as low, and 31 percent rated it as moderate. » Political and governance risks: About 63 percent (12 projects) rated political and governance risks as substantial, and 26 percent (5 projects) rated it as moderate. Only 1 project rated this category as high. » Implementation and sustainability risks: About 52 percent of the projects rated implementation and sustainability risks as substantial, and 21 percent 124 rated it as moderate. Two projects rated this category as high. Table G.1. Risk to Implementation Ratings of IBRD-IDA Projects by Category, FY10–19 number (percent) Social and Political and Implementation Overall Ratings Capacity Stakeholder Environmental Governance and Sustainability Implementation High 3 2 1 1 2 2 (16) (11) (5) (5) (11) (11) Substantial 12 10 3 12 10 10 (63) (52) (16) (63) (52) (53) Moderate 2 (11) 2 (11) 6 (31) 5 (26) 4 (21) 5 (26) Low 1 (5) 4 (21) 7 (37) 0 (0) 2 (11) 1 (5) No rating 1 (5) 1 (5) 2 (11) 1 (5) 1 (5) 1 (5) Source: Independent Evaluation Group analysis. Note: FY = fiscal year; IBRD = International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; IDA = International Development Association. 125 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 126 Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix H Table H.1. Albania Key Economic Indicators Subject Descriptor (percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 GDP growth (annual per- 7.5 3.3 3.7 2.6 1.4 1.0 1.8 2.2 3.4 3.8 cent) Agriculture, value added 16.8 16.8 18.0 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.0 19.8 19.9 19.0 Industry (incl. construction), 25.2 24.4 24.9 24.5 22.9 23.1 21.5 21.8 21.1 20.9 value added Services, value added 44.7 45.3 44.0 44.3 45.0 44.6 45.8 46.3 46.7 47.5 Key Indicators Inflation, consumer prices 3.4 2.2 3.6 3.4 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.3 2.0 (annual percent) Total revenues and grants 26.7 26.0 26.1 25.4 24.8 24.0 26.3 26.4 27.4 27.7 of which: tax revenue 24.2 23.6 23.6 23.4 22.6 21.9 24.1 23.8 24.8 25.7 Total expenditure 32.3 33.5 29.9 28.9 28.2 29.2 32.2 31.0 29.6 29.7 Central government debt, n.a. n.a. n.a. 69.6 63.7 70.6 73.3 79.9 80.6 n.a. total Exports of goods and 25.3 25.2 28.0 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.2 27.3 28.9 31.5 services Imports of goods and 52.1 49.9 48.6 52.0 47.6 47.0 47.2 44.5 45.7 46.6 services Appendix H. Statistics and Current account balance −15.6 −15.4 −11.4 −12.9 −10.2 −9.3 −10.8 −8.6 −7.6 −7.5 Subject Descriptor (percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Foreign direct investment, 9.7 11.2 9.1 8.1 7.5 9.8 8.7 8.7 8.8 7.8 net inflows GDP (current $, billions) 12.9 12.0 11.9 12.9 12.3 12.8 13.2 11.4 11.9 13.0 GDP per capita (current $) 4,371 4,114 4,094 4,437 4,248 4,413 4,579 3,953 4,132 4,538 Population (millions) 2.95 2.93 2.91 2.91 2.90 2.90 2.89 2.88 2.88 2.87 Source: World Development Indicators database and International Monetary Fund. Note: GDP = gross domestic product; n.a. = not applicable.. 127 Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 128 Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix H Table H.2. Albania Selected Social and Economic Indicators Albania UMIC ECA EU Indicators 1990 1996 2002 2005 2008 2012 Latest year (2014–17) GNI per capita (PPP, constant 2011 international $) n.a. 4,793 6,585 7,862 9,193 10,301 11,886 16,554 28,877 36,145 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (PPP, per- n.a. 1.1 2.0 1.1 0.4 1.1 n.a. 1.7 1.5 n.a. cent of population) Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines n.a. n.a. 25.4 18.5 12.5 14.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. (percent of population) Gini index n.a. 27 32 31 30 29 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Immunization, measles (percent of children ages 88 92 96 97 98 98 96 95 95 94 12–23 months) Births attended by skilled health staff (percent of 93 91 98 100 n.a. n.a. n.a. 98 99 99 total) Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 71 50 37 30 30 30 n.a. 41 16 8 100,000 live births) Mortality rate, under-five (per 1,000 live births) 40 31 21 17 14 11 9 14 9 4 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 72 72 75 75 76 77 78 75 77 81 School enrollment, secondary (percent gross) 90 68 73 78 85 93 95 94 78 112 School enrollment, tertiary (percent gross) 8 11 16 23 32 61 61 51 35 68 People using safely managed drinking water ser- n.a. n.a. 47 53 58 65 n.a. n.a. 91 96 vices (percent of population) People using safely managed sanitation services n.a. n.a. 56 59 61 64 n.a. 50 67 89 (percent of population) Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) n.a. 0 27 50 62 120 119 111 125 123 Source: World Development Indicators and Systematic Country Diagnostic (2015). Note: ECA = Europe and Central Asia; EU = European Union; GNI = gross national income; n.a. = not appli- cable; PPP = purchasing power parity; UMIC = upper-middle-income country.  rogress Made on Sustainable Development Goals (Select Table H.3. P Targets) SDG Description Indicators 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 1 No poverty Poverty headcount ratio – 1.1 – – – at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP; percent of population) 2 Zero hunger Prevalence of under- 7.2 10.9 7.4 5.5 – nourishment (percent of population) 3 Good health Maternal mortality ratio 43.0 30.0 30.0 29.0 – and well-being (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) 4 Quality Primary completion 97.1 93.9a 89.2 104.5 106.7 education rate, total (percent of relevant age group) 5 Gender Proportion of seats held 5.2 7.1 16.4 20.7 27.9 equality by women in national parliaments (percent) 6 Clean water People using safely 43.2 52.5 61.7 68.9 – and sanitation managed drinking water services (percent of population) 7 Affordable and Access to electricity 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 – clean energy (percent of population) 8 Decent work GDP per capita growth 7.6 6.1 4.2 2.5 3.9 and economic (annual percent) Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group growth 9 Industry, in- Manufacturing, value 4.3 4.4 5.5 5.7 6.0 novation, and added (percent of GDP) infrastructure 10 Reduced Foreign direct invest- 4.1 3.3 9.1 8.7 7.8 inequalities ment, net inflows (per- cent of GDP) 11 Sustainable Urban population (per- 41.7 46.7 52.2 57.4 59.4 cities and cent of total) communities 12 Responsible Total natural resources 1.1 1.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 consumption rents (percent of GDP) and protection 13 Climate action CO2 emissions (metric 0.98 1.41 1.58 1.98a – tons per capita) 129 SDG Description Indicators 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 14 Life below Marine protected areas – – – 2.7a 2.7 water (percent of territorial waters) 15 Life and land Terrestrial protected – – – 17.2a 17.7 areas (percent of total land area) 16 Peace, justice Bribery incidence – 26.5a – 19.5a – and strong (percent of firms expe- institutions riencing at least one bribe payment request) 17 Partnerships Individuals using the 0.1 6.0 45.0 63.3 71.8 for the goals internet (percent of population) Source: World Development Indicators. Note: – = data not available; GDP = gross domestic product; PPP = purchasing power parity; SDG = Sus- tainable Development Goal. a. Figures are for years other than specified. Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix H 130 Appendix I. List of People Interviewed World Bank Linda Van Gelder Country director Maryam Salim Country manager Ellen Goldstein Former country director FY13–17 Jane Armitage Former country director FY11–13 Tahseen Sayed Former country manager FY13–17 Kseniya Lvovsky Former country manager FY10–13 Former country economist 2012–14, prac- Abede Dadi tice manager) Former lead environmental specialist, En- vironment and Natural Resources Depart- Adriana Damianova ment Task team leader, Disaster Risk Manage- Alison Cave ment and Adaptation Project Senior financial sector specialist, Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation Global Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group Andres F. Martinez Practice Junior professional officer, Social, Urban, Anita Ellmauer-Klambauer Rural, and Resilience Global Practice Senior economist, Social Protection and Aylin Isik-Dikmelik Jobs Senior financial sector specialist, Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation Global Bujana Perolli Practice Practice manager, Social Protection and Cem Mete Labor David Michaud Practice manager, Water Global Practice Doerte Doemeland Former country economist, practice manager 131 Senior natural resources management spe- Drita Dade cialist, Environment and Natural Resources Evis Sulko Albania senior country operations officer Senior private sector specialist, Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation Global Feyi Boroffice Practice Senior education specialist, Education Flora Kelmendi Global Practice Former lead land administration special- ist, Urban, Rural, and Social Development Gavin Adlington Department Senior energy specialist, Energy and Ex- Gazmend Daci tractives Senior private sector specialist, Macroeco- Harald Jedlicka nomics, Trade, and Investment Senior financial sector specialist, Finance, Igor Matijevic Competitiveness, and Innovation Former associate operations officer, Sus- Irena Gribizi tainable Business Advice—Europe and Central Asia Senior public sector specialist, Public Sec- Jana Kunicova tor Governance Former senior investment officer, Infra- Jason Pellmar Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix I structure and Natural Resources—CSE Jing Xiong Senior transport specialist, Transport Lead counsel, Environmental and Interna- Jonathan Lindsay tional Law Unit Senior land administration specialist, So- Kathrine Kelm cial, Urban, Rural, and Resilience Senior disaster risk management specialist, Ko Takeuchi Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience Senior economist, Social Protection and Maddalena Honorati Labor María E. Dávalos Senior economist, Poverty and Equity 132 Economist, Health, Nutrition, and Popula- Marvin Ploetz tion Senior social protection economist, Social Melis U. Guven Protection and Labor Senior infrastructure finance specialist, Patricia Lopez Water Senior water resources management spe- Pieter Waalewijn cialist, Water Romain Pison Senior transport specialist, Transport Senior energy specialist, Energy and Ex- Rome Chavapricha tractives Senior urban specialist, Social, Urban Rural, Rosanna Nitti and Resilience Former lead urban economist, Social, Ur- Stephen Karam ban, Rural, and Resilience Urban economist, Social, Urban, Rural, and Tuo Shi Resilience Senior public sector specialist, Public Sec- Zahid Hasnain tor Governance Gentjana Sula Former World Bank operations officer, Edu- cation, Gender, Youth, the World Bank Entela Skenderaj Consultant, tourism project and site engi- neer of Regional Landfill of Bajkaj (World Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group Bank project) International Finance Corporation Laureta Qorlazja IFC Albania country officer Senior private sector specialist, Finance, Shaun Mann Competitiveness, and Innovation Portfolio manager, Infrastructure and Nat- Temel Oktem ural Resources Portfolio—CLA Operations officer, FIG Advisory Services Bajame Sefa Europe and Central Asia 133 Investment officer, PPP and Corporate Edona Pacarada Finance, PPP—ECA Principal economist, Country Economics George Konda and Engagement Investment officer, Infrastructure and Nat- Inna Karas ural Resources Investment officer, FIG Inv Operations— Ledia Cirko ECA Senior investment officer, PPP and Corpo- Nicola Ruggero Saporiti rate Finance, PPP—ECA Investment officer, PPP and Corporate Nikola Mihajlovic Finance, PPP—ECA Anna Maria Jaklitsch Investment officer, Infrastructure—ECA Senior operations officer, Energy and Ex- Nebojsa Arsenijevic tractives Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency Gianfilippo Carboni Senior risk management officer, MIGA Government Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix I Shkelqim Hajdari General inspectorate Albania Central Inspec- torate Adela Xhemali General manager Albania Health Insurance Institute (AHII) Albana Adhami Head of Health Monitor- Albania Health Insurance ing Sector Institute (AHII) Laureta Mano Legal director Albania Health Insurance Institute (AHII) Gentian Kerri Head of Legal and Pro- Albanian Development curement Department Fund (ADF) 134 Blendi Bushati Deputy director Albanian Development Fund (ADF) Erik Qirjaqi SLR program coordinator Albanian Development Fund (ADF) and World Bank PIUTD Project— Ministry of Infrastructure and Energy Astrit Alikaj Project coordinator Albanian Development Fund (ADF) and World Bank PIUTD Project— Ministry of Infrastructure and Energy Sokol Nano Executive director Albanian Investment De- velopment Agency (AIDA) Genc Celi Director Albanian Investment De- velopment Agency (AIDA) Afrim Qendro Director general Albanian Road Authority Agron Haxhimali Executive director Association of Albanian Municipalities Enkelejda Kokthi Former head of Financial Citizen-Centric Service Management Delivery Project (CCSD) Ministry of Finance Armond Halebi General director Directorate of Accredita- Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group tion of Albania Mirela Meko Former deputy director General Directorate of Customs Petrit Rama Director General Directorate of Metrology (dpm) Kostanca Dedja Directorate of External General Directorate of Affairs and Relations Standardization Brikena Cufe Structure of Local Offic- Immovable Property Reg- es of Real Estate Record- istration Office (IPRO) ing Berat 135 Klodjan Troci Head of the IPRO in Immovable Property Reg- Vlore istration Office (IPRO) Rezar Turdiu Director of Project Plan- Immovable Property Reg- ning and Monitoring istration Office (IPRO) Department  Mirvjena Laha Consultant Immovable Property Reg- istration Office (IPRO) Ledia Thomo Household Survey direc- Institute of Statistics tor (INSTAT) Gjergji Gjinko Former chief of cabinet Ministry for Innovation and Information and Communication Technol- ogy  Aurora Alimadhi Agriculture and Rural Ministry of Agriculture, Development general Food and Consumer Pro- secretary tection, Albania Irfan Tarelli General director of Ministry of Agriculture, Agriculture, Food Safety Food and Consumer Pro- and Rural Development tection Policies Andi Vila Project manager Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Pro- tection Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix I Maksimilian Dhima Director of planning Ministry of Defense and coordination of civil emergencies Haki Cako Director general Ministry of Defense, Al- bania Mirela Bimo Director of finance Ministry of Education, Sports and Youth Suzana Papadhop- Adviser Ministry of Education, ulli Sports and Youth Dafina Cenaj Head of Procurement Ministry of Education, Sector Sports and Youth 136 Myqerem Tafaj Former minister of Edu- Ministry of Education, cation and Sciences Sports and Youth Arjan Madhi Former director general Ministry of Environment, of Water Administration Forestry and Water Ad- Directorate ministration Arben Ahmetaj Former minister of Fi- Ministry of Finance and nance and Economy Economy Dajna Sorensen Deputy minister Ministry of Finance and Economy Ridvan Bode Former minister of Ministry of Finance and finance Economy, Albana Shkurta Former deputy minister Ministry of Finance and of Finance and Economy Economy Sajmir Kadiu Director of Financial Ministry of Health Alba- Department and World nia Bank project for health care services  Milva Ekonomi Former deputy minister Ministry of Health of health Entela Cipa Adviser to minister Ministry of Infrastructure and Energy Ilir Bejtja Deputy minister Ministry of Infrastructure and Energy Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group Eduard Gjokutaj Adviser to minister Ministry of Infrastructure and Energy Lindita Sotiri Director of European Ministry of Infrastructure Integration  and Energy Dorina Cinari Deputy minister of Infra- Ministry of Infrastructure structure and Energy and Energy Denada Seferi Director of Social Ser- Ministry of Labor and vices Social Affairs Kastriot Sulko Former director Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs 137 Bardhylka Kospiri Former deputy minister Ministry of Labor and of Labor and Social and Social Affairs current deputy minis- ter of Health and Social Affairs Ernest Noka Former deputy minister Ministry of Public Works and Transport Blendi Klosi Minister of Tourism and Ministry of Tourism and Environment Environment Gjon Radovani Former deputy minister Ministry of Urban Devel- of Urban Development opment and Tourism Eglantina Gjermeni Former minister of Ministry of Urban Devel- Urban Development opment and Tourism and Tourism Bledar Blana Deputy mayor of Bashkia Municipality of Bashkia Berat Municipality Berat Fredi Kokoneshi Mayor of Divjakë Munic- Municipality of Divjakë ipality Vangjush Dako Mayor Municipality of Durres Jorgo Goro Mayor Municipality of Himara Niko Shupuli Mayor Municipality of Permet Florensa Haxhi Director general for Prime Minister’s Office Development Programs Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix I and Cooperation; pro- gram manager, Regional Economic Area, prime minister’s office Sali Berisha Former prime minister Prime Minister’s Office (2005–13) Majlinda Dhuka Director for Develop- Prime Minister’s Office ment and Good Gover- nance Oljan Kanushi Water coordinator Prime Minister’s Office 138 Majlinda Dhuka Director for Develop- Prime Minister’s Office ment and Good Gover- nance Magdalena Mar- Director Regional Directory of So- gariti cial Services, Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs Arduen Karagjozi Director of Excellence Technical Secretariat of National Water Council, Ministry of Environment, Forestry, and Water Ad- ministration Gerta Lubonja General director Technical Secretariat of National Water Council, Ministry of Environment, Forestry, and Water Ad- ministration Astrit Alikaj Project coordinator at World Bank PIUTD Proj- Project Coordination ect, Ministry of Infra- Unit structure and Energy Natasha Ahmetaj Second deputy governor Bank of Albania Denis Deralla Member of the Super- Bank of Albania Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group visory Board, Financial Supervision Authority Elisabeta Gjoni First deputy governor Bank of Albania and Supervisory Council  Astrit Hado General director The Social Insurance In- stitute (ISSH) Florian Mustafaraj Water PIU director National Agency of Water Supply and Sanitation (World Bank Project) Jovan Gjika Water Project coordina- National Agency of Water tor Supply and Sanitation (World Bank Project) 139 Ervin Koci Executive general direc- The Albanian Financial tor  Supervisory Authority (AFSA)  Agron Hetoja Former CEO Albanian Power Corpora- tion (KESH) Fatos Bundo PMU director Albanian Power Corpora- tion (KESH) Erideta Basha Strategic Department Albanian Power Corpora- tion (KESH) Adrian Cela CEO Electricity Power Distri- bution System Operator (OSHEE) Ceno Klosi Director of the Economic Electricity Power Distri- Department bution System Operator (OSHEE) Private Sector Ndricim Shani Chair of National Regu- Albanian Regulatory latory Commission Authority of the Water Supply and Wastewater Disposal and Treatment Sector Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix I Nikolin Jaka President Chamber of Commerce and Industry Tirana Migena Aliaj Director, Department of Credins Bank Projects Sonila Jazo Consultant Expert in the Land Sector Kozeta Statha Director Port of Sarande, Albania Arjan Hoxha Director of Project Man- Power Recovery Project agement Unit (World Bank) Edlira Dajko Procurement manager ProCredit Bank Christian Canacaris CEO Raiffeisen Bank 140 Zhani Shapo Founding director SHAPO Consulting Policy and Research Consultants Gazmend Kadriu CEO and member of the Union Bank Sh.a. board of directors Bilateral and Multilateral Donors Linda Spahia Country economist International Monetary Fund (IMF) Mario Mariani Head of Cooperation Delegation of the Europe- an Union to Albania Alessandra Frontoni Social, Education, and Delegation of the Europe- Health, an Union to Albania Enkelejda Bregu Social Policies, Social Delegation of the Europe- Protection and Inclusion, an Union to Albania Gender Equality Edvin Pacara Project officer Environment and Energy Officer, Delegation of the European Union to Alba- nia Ardian Metaj Project manager Environment and Energy Officer, Delegation of the Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group European Union to Alba- nia Ledia Muco Economic and trade EU delegation adviser Genc Pollo Former innovation EU Integration minister and currently chairman of Parliamen- tary Commission Tomas Nystrom Head of Office European Bank for Recon- struction and Develop- ment (EBRD) 141 Marinela Jazoj Executive director Foreign Investors Associ- ation of Albania (FIAA) Manol Simo General director  General Directorate for Financing and Contract- ing of EU, World Bank and other Donors Funds Peter Feldmann Program manager on pri- Deutsche Gesellschaft für vate sector development Internationale Zusam- and competitiveness menarbeit GmbH (GIZ) Gabriele Lames Program manager on Deutsche Gesellschaft für water Internationale Zusam- menarbeit GmbH (GIZ) Bjorn Theis Country head KfW Albania Bledar Dollaku KfW water manager KfW, Albania Lorin Ymeri Executive director Agency for the Delivery of Integrated Services Alba- nia (ADISA) Civil Societies and Other Development Partners Diana Leka Head of secretariat Albania Investment Council Albania Country Program Evaluation  Appendix I Zef Preci Research director Albanian Center for Eco- nomic Research Elisabeta Poci Project manager Water Supply and Sewer- age Association of Alba- nia (SHUKALB) Enkelejda Gjinali University lecturer and University of Tirana, consultant on water Albania Ing. Gerald Dautaj Chief engineer of the Durres Water Supply utility and Sewerage Company (Durres WSSC)  142 Ing. Daniela Nano Hydrotechnical engi- Durres Water Supply neer and Sewerage Company (Durres WSSC)  Adriola Hoxha Durres water staff Durres Water Supply and Sewerage Company (Durres WSSC)  Independent Evaluation Group World Bank Group 143 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433