19740

__                     Viewfrom LATHR
                    ~~~~~A
                            No. 2:1




     EDUCATION AND THE LABOR MARKET IN URUGUAY




                              by

             GeorgePsacharopoulos
                                and Eduardo Velez




                    HumanResourcesDivision
                      TechnicalDepartment
             Latin America and the CaribbeanRegion
                        7he World Bank




                           June1992
 'A Viewfrom LAIHR' is a series of occasional flyers produced by the Human
ResourcesDivision of Latin America and the CaribbeanTechnicalDepartment of the
WorldBankfor the purpose of stimulatingdiscussionamongstaff on key issuesfacing
the sector. The views expressedhere are those of the authors and should not be
attributedto the WorldBank.
                                           Abstract

        This paper uses data from the 1989 Uruguayan Household Survey to investigate the
relationshipbetweenearningsand educationin that country. Mincerianearnings functionsfitted
to nearly 10,000workers reveal that each extra year of schoolingyields a private rate of return
of 9.2 percent, whichis comparableto the returns observedin the more industrialized  countries.
Among the other findingsof the study: Females realize a full percentagepoint advantageover
maleson the return to their educationalinvestmentwhileprivate sector employeesenjoy a nearly
five percentagepoint advantageover public sector employees -- a finding that highlightsthe
recognitionof the productivevalue of educationby industry. When the full cost of education
(both pubic and private) is considered and education is broken down by level of schooling,
primary educationexhibitsthe highestrate of return -- nearly double that of secondaryeducation
-- whereas graduates of technical/vocational schools and teacher training courses enjoy only
minor returns on this type of investment.
I
I.     Introduction



       Uruguayexperiencedrapid economicgrowth duringmost of the first half of the twentieth

                                     environmentduring the past coupleof decadeshas not
century, but the overall macroeconomic

been favorablefor educationaldevelopment. The average annualgrowth rate in the 1980swas

negativein the industrysector and less than one percent in agriculture and services. Stagnation

has also meantlittle employmentgrowth in the private sector -- in fact public employmenthas

expanded to absorb labor force increases.Y' Central Governmentjobs increased from about

100,000in 1970to 163,000in 1975,accountingfor 26 percent of total employment.Sincethen,

however, the share of public employmenthas decreasedto around 20 percent in the 1990s.



       The structure of the economyalso has important linkages to educationaldevelopment.

In Uruguay the agriculturalsectorhas shrunk,losing 30 percent of the workersthat had in 1961;

that year there were 210,700 workers while in 1986 agriculturalworkers numbered 153,000.

The industrial sector is relativelysmallwith a share of 28 percent of the GDP in 1989. Uruguay

is in fact less industrializedthan Latin American countries of similar income levels such as

Venezuelaand Brazil, and even relative to countrieswith a lower income level, such as Chile,

Mexico or Colombia. The industrial sector has decreased since the 1960s; the manufacture

industry share of Montevideo's labor force, for example, dropped from 33 percent in 1970 to

23 percent in 1990. The sector service is the one that shows an increase in the last decades,




1/ Unemployment  rates in urbanUruguaypeakedin 1983(14.7percentof the laborforce), sincethen
theyhave been dropping  to near 8.5 percentin 1990(DGEC,1991).
                                               -2-
 with a substantialpart due to the expansionof the informal sector. The trend toward a service

 economy is likely to fuel a growing demand for better educated workers.



        The educationalprofile of the workforceis in fact improving (Table 1). While those with

 no education, incomplete or completedprimary dropped significantly, the population having

 secondary and university education has risen sharply. In fact, Uruguay has one of the better

 educated workforcesin Latin America.



              Table 1. Labor Force by EducationalLevel, Montevideo, 1969-90
                                       (percentage)
  EducationalLevel              1969         1975         1985         1987         1990
 No education                   2.3          1.5          1.1          0.7          0.6
 Incompleteprimary             20.1         17.7         13.4         10.5          9.7
 Completedprimary              37.2         35.2         25.6         25.7         23.4
 Secondary 1st cycle           20.4         21.1         23.2         25.0         24.8
 Secondary2nd cycle             5.1          6.6         10.9         10.6         12.7
 Vocational(UTU)                6.0          7.5         11.9         11.6         11.7
 University                     5.7          8.5         10.6         11.7         12.9
 Other                          3.2          1.9          3.3          4.2          4.1
 Source: DGEC, Encuesta de Hogares of respective years.

       Another aspect that has importantlinkagesto educationaldevelopmentis the demographic

profile of the country which resemblesone of a developedcountry. The population growth rate

has been extremelylow (0.6 percent per year) in the last decade and as low as 0.2 percent a year

during 1970-75, while the average level for Latin America has been 2.6 percent. Of particular

relevance to the education sector is that populationgrowth has been low not only because of low
                                             -3-

natural growthbut also due to net emigration);the numberof school-agepopulation(6-17 years)

increasedonly from 609,000 to 642,000 between 1980 and 1990. Current life expectancyis

72.5 years, significantlyhigher than the 68.6 years observed 25 years ago. The low net

reproduction and the high life expectancyproducedan aging population,comparableto the one

in developedcountries.



       Uruguay is a highly urbanizedcountry. Accordingto the 1985populationcensus, 86.2

percent lived in urban areas, maintainingthe pattern that has existed at least since the 1960s

when over 80 percent of the populationwas living in urban areas. This trend is expected to

continue as the projectionsfor 2000 indicate 91.1 percent will be living in urban areas.



I.     The Education System

       Uruguay has mandatoryprimary (six years)and lower secondaryeducation(three years).

Preschooleducationhas developedrecently, and around 40 percentof childrenaged three to five

were covered in 1989. Primary educationis universal. In fact, gross enrollmentin primary is

more than 100 percent and net enrollment reached 88 percent in 1988 (see Unesco, 1991).

Repetition, however, is notorious, mainly in first grade where it reaches near 20 percent.

Secondary education, which lasts six years, reaches around 60 percent of the school-age

population. The first three years constitute the lower secondary education (ciclo bdsico), and

upper secondary education is diversified offering two options: a general, and a technical-

vocationalcurriculum. University education,that was solely provided by the governmentuntil
                                            -4-

1984, has a coverage of about 2 percent of the (19-24) school-agepopulation (up from the 0.4

percent in the 1960s).



       Enrollment.During 1980-90primaryenrollmentincreasedfrom 331,247 to 351,452, with

public schools expandingfrom 277,018 to 294,910, respectively (see Table 2). Enrollment in

secondary academic increased from 125,448 in 1980 to 204,198 in 1990, a more significant

increase, partially explained because secondary education attendance became mandatory, and

because of a change in educationalemphasis from technical/vocational
                                                                   education that has kept

a constant enrollment since 1983 (55,259 in 1983 and 56,084 in 1989). University enrollment

doubled between 1973 and 1989 from 31,255 to 62,886.



                   Table 2. Enrollment by Level of Education, 1972-90

      EducationalLevel        1972          1980          1989          1990
      Primary                  345           331           350           351
      - Public                (285)         (277)         (296)          (295)

      Secondary                145           125           197           204
      - Public                (116)          (97)         (161)          (167)

     Technical/vocational       36            43            56            n.a.

     University                 29            34            63            n.a.
      Sources:      For primary and secondary, Departamento de Estadistica de la Divisi6n
                    Planeamiento Educativo, CODICEN. For Technical/vocational and
                    University, DGEC, Anuario EstadIstico.

                    n.a. = Not available
                                              -5-

       Expenditure. Public educational spending amounts to only 2.6 percent of GDP (an

increase from the 2.0 percent in 1983), placing Uruguay among the countries with the lowest

public educationalspendingin Latin America. The pattern of intra-sectoral allocation--outof

the US$211millionsof the 1989public expenditureson education, 41 percent went to primary

education, 23 percent to secondaryacademic, 12 percent to vocational and technical, and 21

percent to higher education (19 percent for universityand 2 percent for teacher training).



                 Table 3. Public Expenditureon Educationby Level, 1989



        Level of Education         US$ millions Percent of total Percent of GDP
        Primary                        86            41                1.1
        Secondary                      74            35               0.9
        - Academic                     (48)             (23)               (0.6)
        - Technical/Vocational         (26)             (12)               (0.3)
        Higher Education                44               21                 0.5
        - University                   (40)             (19)               (0.5)
        - Teacher Training              (4)              (2)               (0.0)
        Other                            7                3                0.1
         Total                         211               100               2.6


       Source:       Ministerio de Economfa y Finanza (ContadurfaGeneral de la Naci6n),
                     MEF-CGN,Budget Execution Statements.
                                               -6-

        Significantcuts in total educationspendingtook place in the early 1980s with a recovery

by the end of the decade; overall, total education has grown in real terms. A comparison of

expendituresin 1989 and 1980 shows that growth was relatively high in the public universities,

less in secondary education and in technical-vocationaleducation, and slightly negative in

primary education (see Table 4).


                  Table 4. Public Expenditure on Education Index, 1980-89
                                     (1984= 100, in constant prices)

            EducationalLevel            1980           1984             1989
            Primary                    141.6           100             136.8
            Secondary                  127.1           100             153.7
            TechnicallVocational       131.7           100             136.7
            University                 137.8           100             202.0
              Total                    136.1           100             159.8

       Source:         Ministero de Economfa y Finanzas (ContaduriaGeneral de la Naci6n),
                       MEF-CGN, Budget Execution Statements.


       Unit cost estimates appear in Table 5. In 1989, the annual expenditure per primary

student was, on average, US$256, for secondary education US$306, for technical-vocational

US$450, for teacher training USS$643, and for higher education it was US$614. At this last

level there is ample variation by field of study (i.e., while expenditureper student in agronomy

was close to US$2,000, in law, social sciences and economics it was between US$200 and

US$300). For a detailed estimationof higher education costs, in particular costs per graduate,

see Labadie, (1989).
                                              -7-
                 Table 5. Unit Costs of Public Educationby Level, 1984-90
                                  (Current US$/student)


   EducationalLevel          1984      1985 1986 1987 1988          1989     1989*     1990
   Primary                   127       130   181    226     239     256     (154.9)    265
   Secondary                 168       172   225    261     279     306     (185.1)    285
   Technical/Vocational      235       263   353    425     436     450     (272.2)    419
   Teacher Training          231       310   542    639     743     643     (389.0)    795
   University**              355       433   643    655     618     614     (371.5)    n.a.
        Source: CODICEN. For universitycosts MEF-CGN.
        *     In 1989 Uruguayanpesos (in thousands).
        **    Excludes expenditures on the Hospital de Clfnicas (however 50 percent of the
              salaries of teaching personnel were included in the expenditure). Average
              expenditureper student includingHospital de Clinicasis US$896.
       n.a. =      Not available.




III.   Labor Market and Education

       One concern of educationplannersis the linkage betweenthe educationalsystemand the

labor market, specificallythe basic issue being the matching between the education system's

output and the demand for educated labor. Two approachesare generally used to assess what

would be externally efficient for the education system to produce: (a) manpower forecasting,

(which, after decades of practice, has received repeated and sustained critique (see Youdi and

Hinchliffe, 1985, and Psacharopoulos,1991,and World Bank, 1991)and has subsided), and (b)

labor market analysis. This later technique,that presents a more reliable guide for educational

investment, is used in what follows.
                                              -8-
        Sampleand data description.- The data used in this analysis are drawn from the 1989

Encuesta Nacional de Hogares conducted by the General Administrationof Statistics and the

Census (DGEC). The surveyis based on a nationallyrepresentativehousehold sampleof 31,766

individualsconducted in urban areas. We selected those aged 14 to 65 with positive earnings

from dependent employment (Y) (aggregate of all payments received from their wage

employmentand earnings).



       Table 6 presents summary statisticsof the main variables used in the analysis. Fifty-nine

percent of the sample are male workers, and the average age is a little over 37 years. Years of

schooling (S) was constructed in two ways. As a continuous variable by combining the

individual's highest level of formal education attended and the last grade completed at that

particular level, and as a string of dummyvariables, indicatingthe fact that a person belongs to

a respectivelevel. If an individualrepeated a grade, it is not reflected in our measures. With

a mean of 8.61 years of education,the sampleis a relativelywell educatedone, with an average

worker almost having completedlower secondaryeducation. One percent of the sample has no

education, 38 percent has primary education, 35 percent has secondary education, 13 percent

has some form of technical/vocational education, and 10 percent has higher education.

Experience, constructed in the traditional Mincerian way (Age - S - 6) is 22.3 years.      The

number of hours workedper week is 45.5. The mean earnings per month is 150,680 pesos for

each worker against 433,800 pesos average household income. With almost one in three

workers in the public sector, Uruguay presents a case of a large public sector.
                                           -9-

                                          Table 6
                               Mean Sample Characteristics

 Variable                                                    Mean            Std. Dev.
 Urban resident                                                .98               .15
 Male                                                          .59               .49
 Age                                                        37.01              12.88
 Part-time Students                                            .06               .24
 Years of Schooling                                          8.61               3.58
  Illiterate                                                  .01                .09
  Primary education                                           .38                .49
  Lower education                                             .24                .43
  Upper secondary                                             .11                .31
  Vocational/Technical                                        .13                .33
  Teacher training                                            .03                .18
  University                                                  .10                .30
 Private sector employee                                      .66                .47
 Public sector employee                                       .29                .45
 Years of experience                                        22.27              13.92
 Hours worked per week                                      45.48              15.67
 Earnings (000 pesos/month)                                150.68             126.22
 Total household income (000 pesos/month)                  433.80             509.84

Source:       Uruguay Household Survey, 1989.        Persons with positive earnings from
              dependentincome.
              N - 9,417



        Table 7 presents mean earnings of selected variables by gender and sector of

employment. The sharpest earnings differentials are due to education, closely followed by

gender, and then by sector of employment. Portes, Blitzer, and Curtis (1986) also found that

gender, but mainly education, have significant additive effects on income. In their study,
                                              - 10   -



employmentstatus (definedas formal worker, informal worker, and informalemployer), has the

strongesteffect on income. Workers with higher educationexperience(includingdropouts) earn

about 2.7 times more than illiterates, 1.9 times more than those who have primary education,

and 1.5 times more than those who have secondaryeducation.



        Males, on average, earn about 60 percent more than females. Gender earnings

differentialsare particularlylarge among illiterates,with male illiterates earning about 2.2 times

more than female illiterates,but also among workers with higher educationexperience, in which

category males earn 1.8 times more than females. This last finding is partially explained by the

fact that in the last decades Uruguay is the only Latin American country where female

enrollment has decreased in careers conducive to high salaries Oike engineering) at the same

time that female enrollment has increased in careers conducive to low salaries like social

sciences (see Schiefelbeinand Peruzzi, 1991).



       Earnings differentialsbetween public and private workers follows the pattern observed

in Latin American countries. With the exception of upper secondaryand university education,

the public sector offers higher pay relative to the private sector.



       Figure 1 presents the age-earningsprofiles by level of education. In spite of the saw-

tooth pattern because of the low number of observations within each education-age cell

(especiallyregarding older people with higher education), the level and growth of earnings in

Uruguay is very similar to that observed elsewhere in the world.
                                            -   11 -
                                         Table 7
                            Mean Earnings by Educational Level
                              (in thousand Pesos per month)

Educational             Entire         Gender           Economic Sector    Mean     N
 Level                  Sample     Male    Female       Private  Public

Mlliterates               85        120          55        86        118    0.0     83
Primary                  122        144          83       117        144    5.2   3,589
Secondary                154        181          112      151        165    9.4   4,525
     - Lower             149        178          109      144        164    9.1   2,270
     - Upper             169        222          125      174        162   10.7   1,027
Tech/Voc (UTU)           148        162          93       144        160    8.9   1,194
Higher                   228        312          169      277        190   15.6   1,220
University (URU)         252        319          181      294        210   15.6    910
 -   Teaching            158        226          149      162        158   15.8    310
Overall                  150        177          112      147        164   8.6    9,417
Note: Educational categories include dropouts of the respective level.
                                  - 12 -



                                 Figure 1.


               Age - Earnings Profiles by Educational Level
                        (3- year MovingAverage)
    400




    400.




                                              14~~~    i



E 300
a                                              X
r




    200




      04

          10     20       30         40       50           60   70

                                    Age
                                             - 13 -

        Exploring earnings variation.- Table 8 reports Mincerian earnings functions (Mincer,

1974)2'fitted to the sampleas a whole and by gender and by economicsector. Column (1) is

the classical specification which includes the continuous years of schooling and experience

variables. We have also includedthe logarithm of hours worked per week as a compensatory

                                  of the first specificationconformwith human capital theory
factor. The signof the coefficients

and the explanatory power of the model (40.4 percent of the variance-') is consistent with

previous research in the Latin American context. The negative sign of the squared term for

experience reflects the concave age-earningsprofiles.



Mincerian Rates of Return



       The rationale for restrictingthe last regressionto private sector males is in order to gain

some insight to approximatethe returns to education in the competitivesector of the economy

(assumingthat in the private sectorearningswould be closer to the productivityof the employee

relative to the public sector), and in order to eliminateeffects of possiblediscriminationagainst

females in the labor market. In addition, the Mincerian experiencevariable for females is not


2/ The standard               is
                       function
               Mincerian
                                 2 + eLn(H)+ U,
       Ln (Y) = a + bS + cEX + dEX

where: Y = monthly  laborearnings,
       S = yearsof formalschooling,
       EX = yearsof workingexperience,
       H    = hours workedper week,
       U    = error term.

               varianceof the modelsrangefrom 29.8percentfor the publicsectorto 43.5 percent
3/ The explained
for private sector male workers.
                                              -   14 -

 as good a measure for their actual labor market experience because of work interruptions for

 family reasons. For the Uruguayancase see Arends (1991).



       The coefficientsof the years of schoolingvariablein columns (1) to (5) in Table 8, and

the differencesbetween successiveeducation dummy coefficientsin column (6) give us a first

glimpse on the returns to education in Uruguay, either referring to a typical extra year of

education, or to specific educationallevels. These are summarizedin Table 9. The overall

Mincerianrate of return (whichis private by construction)is 9.2 percent. This value is typical

of that in advanced countries over the last 20 years. Females enjoy a one percentage point

advantageover males-- another typicalresult in most countries. What is of extremeimportance

is the fact that the returns in the private sector of the economyexceed those in the public sector

by almost 5 percentage points. Such finding, as elsewhere, gives confidenceon the productive

role of education in the sense that no private employer would maintain in the payroll more

educatedpeople if their wages did not somehowcorrespondto increased productivity.



              Amongthe differenteducationallevels, lower secondary(whichin this case is the

last cycle of compulsory basic education exhibits the highest rate of retum, 13.1 percent. The

returns thereafter drop by the level of further education, the lowest being those for teacher

training (negative). Secondarytechnical vocationaleducation exhibits a very low rate of return

of 1.4 percent, which is significantly lower than what has been found elsewhere (for the

Venezuelan case see Fiszbein and Psacharopoulos, 1992).
                                              - 15 -


        Regarding teachers, they receive a very low premium, as in most Latin American

countries, and this may be attributed to the part-time nature of their profession.' In a recent

census (Censo Nacional de Docentes de Educaci6n Media) for example, only one in three

teachers mentionedthat his/her salary as a teacher was the main source of family income (see

CODICEN, 1990). Perhaps teachers enjoy non-monetaryrewards we were not able to capture

in the incomevariable (e.g., free housing). One shouldalso note the high unit cost of teachers'

education due to the decliningenrollmentsin normal schools (enrollmentsdeclinedfrom 5,287

in 1985 to 2,361 in 1990). This has resulted in underutilizedhuman and physical capacity in

the normal school; some normal schoolscurrently have enrollmentsas low as 20 studentswith

a capacity to attend 200 studentsor more.




4/ Accordingto the survey, teachers work on average 33.5 hours per week, whereas other professions
work between 43 and 49 hours per week.
                                              - 16 -

                                            Table 8
                                  Mincerian Earnings Functions

  Variable                           Entire            Gender       Economic Sector     Private
                                    Sample     Males      Females Private     Public    Mes
                                                                                        Males

  Constant                            .352    1.348         .460    -.103    1.934      1.934
  Years of Schooling(S)              .092       .091        .102     .109      .060
  Experience (EX)                    .045       .056        .041     .050     .030       .069
  EX-squared                        -.0006     -.0007      -.0006   -.0007   -.0003     -.0001
  Log Hours                          .803      .551         .715     .873        .530    .642
  Primary (Base)*                                                                        .000
  Lower Secondary*                                                                       .394
  Upper Secondary*                                                                       .688
  Technical/Vocational
                     (UTU)*                                                              .352
  Teacher Training*                                                                      .471
  University (URU)*                                                                     1.158
  R2                                 .404      .388         .418     .434        .298    .435
 N                                  8,623     5,064       3,560      5,865    2,562     3,313
 Mean 5                             8.7       8.3         9.2       8.1      9.6        8.1
 Note: All coefficientsare statisticallysignificantat the 1 % level or better.
 *       Dummy Variables



       Regarding technical/vocational
                                    education,the low returns must reflect current scarcities

in the labor market. Sapelli (1988) shows that the stagnation of the manufacturingsector had

adverse implicationsfor job opportunitiesfor UTU graduates. He also notes that enrollment in

private sector training programs was increasing,probably as the result of a decline in quality of

UTUs programs.
                                              - 17 -

         The figures shownin columns(2) and (3) indicate that private rate of returns are higher

 for females (10.2 percent versus 9.1 percent) even though females earn less. This finding has

 been consistently found in the literature (Psacharopoulos,1985) and it is due to the lower

 foregone earnings of females. It has also been reconfirmed in the case of Uruguay (Arends,

 1991). Experiencehowever is more rewarded for males. In column (4) and (5) the results by

 economic sector indicate that the returns to education are significantlyhigher in the private

 sector (10.9 percent) than in the public sector (6.0 percent).        This result supports the

 productivity-enhancing
                      role of education since the more competitivesector is rewarding more

 the more educatedworkers. Also consistentwith previousanalysis is that returns to experience

 (i.e., growth of earnings) are lower in the public sector.



         Finally, column (6) is an expandedearnings function for public sector males- where

schoolingis disaggregatedinto a series of dummyvariablesto estimatereturns to investmentin

the various levels of education. The results of the modifiedspecificationare consistentwith the

previous pattern. Although returns continue to rise with educational level the trend is not

smooth (i.e., returns to male teachers in the private sector are lower than for workers with

secondary education).


         Full method. The number of observations available in this sample permit us to also

estimate the returns to educationusing the discountingformula, i.e. finding the interest rate that

brings the discountedactual (and non-regression-smoothed)
                                                        net age-earningsprofiles equal to

zero. In such case we can also add the social cost of providing education at a given level to the

beginningof the age-eamingsprofiles and thus estimate the rates of return from the social view

point.
                                             -   18   -


                                          Table 9
                               Mincerian Returns to Education
                                         (percent)

      Reference                                                  Private Rate of Return
                                                                        (percent)
      Gender
         Males                                                             9.1
         Females                                                          10.2

      EconomicSector
         Private                                                          10.9
         Public                                                            6.0

      Private Sector Males by EducationalLevel
         Lower secondary(vs. primary)                                     13.1
         Upper secondary (general) (vs. lower secondary)                   9.8
                            (vs. primary)                                 11.5

                            (UTU) (vs. lower secondary)
         Technical/Vocational                                             1.4
                             (vs. primary)                                5.9

        Teacher Training (vs. upper secondary)                         negative

        University (vs. upper secondary)                                   9.4


       The results appear in Table 10. As elsewhere,primary educationexhibitsthe highest rate

of return, secondary educationa lower rate, and university educationthe lowest rate among the

three main levels. Within secondaryeducation,the technicalfield exhibits a lower rate of return

relative to general education. As already found with the Mincerian method, teacher training

shows a negative return.
                                              - 19 -


                                             Table 10

                          The Returns to Education       --   Full Method
                                             (percent)

                  EducationalLevel                             Private      Social
                  Primary (vs. illiterate)                       19.1        15.2
                  Secondary(vs. primary)                          9.8         8.0
                     - General                                   11.4         8.5
                     - Technical/Vocational (UTU)                 8.2         6.2
                  Teacher Training (vs. secondary)            negative negative
                  University (URU) (vs. secondary)                8.1         6.5



Unemployment



       One issue is how educationrelates to the chancepeoplehave to be unemployed,and once

unemployedhow long they have to wait for finding a job. In order to answer these questions

we worked with a larger samplefrom the householdsurveythat includesnot only those who are

employed for labor earnings (used in the above analysis), but also those who are unemployed

and are looking for a job. This samplein fact corresponds to the definition of the 14-65 years

economicallyactive populationor labor force.



                              rate at the time of the surveywas 5.7 percent. But as shown
       The overall unemployment

in Table 11, the level of education a person has relates to his/her chance to be unemployed.

                                       rate (7.9 percent), followedby lower secondaryschool
Illiterateshave the highest unemployment

graduates. Upper secondary school graduates have about the same unemploymentrate than

secondarytechnicalgraduates, 6.6 and 6.2 percent respectively. Confirminga pattern observed
                                              -   20 -
 at least since the mid 1980steachers have the lowest unemploymentrate (1.2 percent). Due to

 the above mentioneddeclinein normalschoolenrollmentonly around 500 new teachers graduate

 from normal schoolseveryyear. This numberis relatively small to replace the teachingworking

 force that on average has been in the education system for more than 16 years (the retirement

 rate is relatively high).



        The second column in Table 11 refers to the sub-populationof those in the labor force

 who are either unemployedor are lookingfor work. The mean waiting time among this group

 is 31 weeks. But as shown in Table 11, there is strong differentiationby level of education.

University graduates seem to search longer than any other group. This could be partially

explained by the ability of higher income families, who are over-represented among the

university-educated,to support their children until they find a suitablejob. It also reflects the

low cost of attending university.



       The last two columns of the table show that the average number of weeldy hours by the

urban labor force was 42.6 (45.5 including total jobs), with teachers and illiterate people

working less and secondarytechnicalgraduates working more. It is very difficult with the data

in hand to determine the extent to which the observed incidenceand length of unemploymentis

involuntary (genuine joblessness) rather than reflecting job search, i.e. people voluntarily

remaining unemployed in order to improve the wage offer they will get. Although some

voluntary unemploymentcould be attributed to the university graduates, this theory would be

very hard to support regarding those with lower levels of education.
                                                      -   21 -

                                                   Table 11

                          Unemployment Characteristics of the Active Population by
                                           Educational Level


      Educational Level                   Unemployment           Looking for   Average Weekly Hours in
                                              Rate                  Work
                                            (percent)              (weeks)     Primary Job   All Jobs
      Illiterate                                7.9                 26.6          38.8         40.1
      Primary                                   5.0                 26.9          44.3         46.0
      Lower Secondary                           7.2                 30.1          43.6         46.0
      Upper Secondary                           6.6                 32.5          41.1         43.5
          Secondary Technical (UTTU)            6.2                 29.4          45.8         49.1
      Teacher Training                          1.2                 25.0          28.5         33.2
      University (URU)                          3.8                 44.9          36.6         44.1
          Overall                               5.7                 30.6          42.6         45.5
      (N)                                    (13,600)!y           (1,001DV        8,650        8,667

           Population 14-65 years old, employed, unemployed, or looking for work for the first time.
           P'
b/         Unemployed or looking for work.



=Equity




               The above analysis referred exclusively to efficiency issues in the labor market, i.e. how

education relates to employment and the earnings of those who have been educated. With the

data set in hand it is possible to expand the analysis to equity issues by concentrating on a

different sub-sample: those who are 10 years old and above and report themselves as being

students. The household survey contains 5,129 such persons the characteristics of which appear

in Table 12.
                                            - 22 -

       The mean age of the different student groups documents the extent of grade repetition

in the Uruguayansystem of education,e.g., whereas the mean official age of those who are in

upper secondaryeducation shouldbe 17 years old, the mean actual age of the group is 20. The

same applies to university students, their actual mean age being 25 against an official age of

about 21.



       Column (2) in Table 12 shows the mean household income of the respective student

groups. There is a distinct pecking order with those who attend university having double the

family income of those who are in primary education. It is also of extreme interest that the

mean household income of those who study technical/vocationalsubjects is the lowest among

                                                         education is for the poor.
all groups. In Uruguay, as elsewhere, technical/vocational



       The respondents were asked whether they contribute payments in the school they

currently attend. The figures shown in the last column of Table 12 show an amazing

stratificationof the incidence of paying by level of education. Those attending primary and

lower secondaryschoolsare more likely to contributefor their education,whereas only one tenth

of one percent contribute to their university education. This is prima facie evidence on the

inequity of the present education financing arrangementsin Uruguay.
                                           - 23 -
                                         Table 12
                          Characteristicsof the StudentPopulation

 EducationalLevel                Age       Household   Fee Paying          N
                                         Income/month    Student
                                           (000 Pesos)  (percent)
 Primary                         11.9         380             12.6       2,209
 Lower Secondary                 15.3         472             17.0       1,661
 Upper Secondary                 20.0         552              9.9         518
 SecondaryTechnical(UTU)         18.6         339              0.0         262
 Teacher Training                23.6         485              2.9          34
 University(URU)                 25.1         665              0.9         445
 Overall                         15.4         450             12.1       5,129



V.     EducationalInvestmentPriorities

       The above results are signals as to where resources for education could be used most

profitably at the margin. The expansionof primary education should be priority number one.

It is reminded that in spite of the gross enrollment ratio of more than 100 percent, the net

enrollmentratio was only 88 percent in 1987. Althoughboth, private and social rate of return

are somewhatlower than the average found for Latin American countries(see Psacharopoulos,

1985), they are high enough to indicate the high priority that should be given to investmentin

this sub-sector. The expansionof primary education is also good for equity purposes.



       General secondaryeducationalso exhibits a sizeable social rate of return indicatingthat

there is room for expansion. The relatively low social rate of return to technical/vocational

secondary education is a red flag regarding further expansion of this level, especially in its
                                            - 24   -


present form. Perhaps the quality or "relevance"is bad. We were not able to differentiate by

specialty. This needs further investigation. It is recommendedthat systematicanalysisof labor

market informationtogether with tracer studies be used to improve the imbalances betweenthe

technical schools and the labor market.



       The overall social rate of return of 6.5 percent regarding university education, similar

to that in countries such as the United States, indicates that the country might have reached

equilibriumregardingthis level of education. The precedingmacro-analysis
                                                                       indicatesthat higher

education may not be an investmentpriority. The negative rate of return to teacher training

requires further investigation.
                                              - 25 -

                                         REFERENCES

Arends, M., "Women'sLabor Force Participationand Earnings: the Case of Uruguay," in G.
      Psacharopoulos and Z. Tzannatos (eds.), Women's Employment and Pay in Latin
     America, The World Bank, 1992 (Forth.)

CODICEN,Diagn6sticoy Polfticasde Formaci6ny PerfeccionamientoDocente,Administraci6n
    Nacionalde Educacion Paiblica,ConsejoDirectivo Central, Montevideo, 1990.

DGEC, Encuesta Continua de Hogares 1990, Direcci6n General de Estadfstica y Censos,
    Montevideo, 1991

Fiszbein, A., and Psacharopoulos,G., "A Cost Benefit Analysis of EducationalInvestmentin
       Venezuela, 1989," Economicsof EducationReview, 1992 (forth.)

Labadie, G.J., El Gasto Universitarioy el Costo de los Egresados,Serie Descripci6ne Indices,
      CERES, Montevideo, 1989.

Mincer, J., Schooling,Experienceand Earnings,NationalBureau of EconomicResearch, 1974

Portes, A., Blitzer, S., and Curtis, J., "The Urban Informal Sector in Uruguay: Its Internal
       Structure, Characteristics,and Effects," World Development, Vol. 14, No. 6,pp. 727-
       741, 1986.

                                                                               Labor
Psacharopoulos,G., "From ManpowerPlanningto Labor Market Analysis,"International
      Review, November 1991.

Psacharopoulos,G., "Returnsto Education: A Further InternationalUpdate and Implications,"
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Sapelli, C., Evaluaci6n de la Conexi6n entre Sistema Educativo y Mercado de Trabajo, con
       Enfasis en UTU y la Universidadde la Repiublica.Manuscrito, CERES, Montevideo,
        1988.

Schiefelbein, E., and Peruzzi, S., "Oportunidadesde Educaci6n para la Mujer. El Caso de
      America Latina y el Caribe," in Bolettn Proyecto Principal de Educaci6n en America
      Latina y el Canibe,Unesco-Orealc,No. 24, pp.51-78, 1991.

UNESCO, Statistical Yearbook, 1991, Unesco, Paris, 1991.

Youdi, R., and Hinchliffe, K. (eds.), The Practice of Manpower ForecastingRevisited, Paris:
      Unesco, InternationalInstitute of EducationalPlanning, 1985.

World Bank, Vocationaland TechnicalEducation and Training:A Policy Paper, 1991.
I
         - Continuedfromback Page


No. 16          'Wiat do we think aboutHealth CareFinance in Lain America and the Caribbean?
                by Philip Musgrove, September1991

No. 17          'Population Growth,Externalitiesand Poverty' by Nancy Birdsall and Charles
                Griffin, September1991

No. 18           'Wage Trends in Latin America' by AlejandraCox Edwards, September 1991

No. 19           'Investment in ScienceResearchand Training:The Caseof Brazil and Implications
                for Other Countries' by Laurence Wolff, with contributionsfrom George
                 Psacharopoulos,Aron Kuppermann,CharlesBlitzer, GeoffreyShepherd, Carlos
                 Primo Braga and AlcyoneSaliba,September 1991

No. 20          'Prenatal and PerinatalHealth Care:A DiagnosticInstrunent' by Francisco
                Mardones, September1991

No. 21          'MaternalAnthropometry in PrenatalCare:A New Maternal Weight Gain Chart'by
                Pedro Rosso, September1991

No. 22           'Povertyand Inequalityin Latin Americaand the CaribbeanDuring the 70s and 80s:
                An Overview of the Evidence' by Dominique van de Walle, September 1991

No. 23           'Social Indicatorsin Latin Americaand the Caribbean.A Compilationof Statistics
                from 1970 to the Present' by George Psacharopoulosand Bill Wood, October 1991

No. 24          'ICEEX - A StudentLoan SuccessStory in Colombia' by SamuelCarlson, October
                1991

No. 25          'EducationalDevelopmentand Costingin Mexico, 1977-1990:   A Cross-StateTune-
                Series Analysis' by Juan Prawda and George Psacharopoulos,November1991

No. 26          'A Cost-BenefitAnalysisof EducationalInvestmentin Venezuela,1989' by Ariel
                Fiszbein and GeorgePsacharopoulos,November1991

No. 27          'EducationalDecentralizationin Lain America:LessonsLearned' by Juan Prawda,
                March 1992

No. 28          'Education and the Labor Marketin Uruguay' by GeorgePsacharopoulosand
                Eduardo Velez, June 1992
                               Viewsfrom LATHR
 No. 0    "The Magnitudeof Poverty in Latin America in the 1980s" September, 1990

 No. 1    'An Ounce of Preventionis WorthHow Much Cure? Thinkingabout the Allocationof
          Health Care Spending' by Philip Musgrove, September1990.

 No. 2    "Decentralization
                          and Educational
                                        Bureaucracies"by Juan Prawda, November, 1990

 No. 3    "WhiatShould Social FundsFinance?:PortfolioMix, Targeting,and Efficiency
          Criteria"by Margaret E. Grosh, December 1990

 No. 4             Balance in Chile:7he ISAPRES anstitucionesde Salud Previsional)Health
          "Financial
          CareSystem and the Public Sector" by Philip Musgrove,January, 1991

No. 5     'Population,Healthand NutritionIssues in the Latin Americanand CaribbeanRegion
          and the Agendafor the 90's" by Oscar Echeverri,January, 1991

No. 6     "Populationand Family Planningin the 1990's: ReconcilingMacro and Micro
         Issues' by Bruce D. Carlson, February, 1991

No. 7    "TheFeasibilityof StudentLoans in Latin America: A Simulation"by Samuel Carlson
         and GuozhongXie, March, 1991

No. 8    'Transformingthe Vicious Circle- The Costsand Savings of School Inefficiencyin
         Mexico by SamuelCarlson, April 1991

No. 9    "Colombia's "EscuelaNueva". An EducationInnovation"by Eduardo Velez, May
         1991

No. 10   wHealthTechnologyDevelopmentand Assessment:Do LAC Countimes
                                                                   Have a
         Choice?"by Oscar Echeverri,June 1991

No. 11   "TheRecurrent CostFactor in the PHR Sector" by Jacob van LutsenburgMaas, July
         1991

No. 12   "TheBurden of Death at Different Ages: Assumptions,Parametersand Values" by
         Phillip Musgrove, August 1991

No. 13    "Government   Expenditureon Social Sectors in Latin America and the Caribbean:
         Statistical Trends" by HongyuYang, August 1991

No. 14   "FromManpowerPlanningto Labor MarketAnalysis" by George Psacharopoulos,
         September1991

No. 15   "An Update on Cholerain the Americas' by FranciscoMardones, August 1991


                                                       -   Continued on inside Page