*IIIEUEhEEhEEEIEIEE ISaoneg Setor Magement Assstance Programme Jamaica Energy Sector Strategy and Investment Planlning Study Volume II: Liquid Fuels Report No. 135B/92 Consultants' Reports JAMAICA ENERGY SECTOR STRATEGY AND INVESTMENT PLANNING STUDY VOLUME II Liquid Fuels PART A PETROLEUM SECTOR REVIEW PART B EVALUATION OF FUEL GRADE ETHANOL PRODUCTION CONSULTANTS' REPORTS August 992 CONTENTS FOREWOR.D ........... .......................................... v ABBR UATIIONS AND ACRONYMS ....... ............................ vii CURPENCY EQUI AIAEN1S ... ...................... ...... ... ...... viii ENERGY UNrIS AND CONVERSIONS ................................. . viii I. INYRODu.C ON .................... .... ........................ 1 *I. SUMMARY,CONCLURONS ANDRECOMMENDATIONS . . 2 Conclusions . . .... ................... 2 Recommendations ............................................. S m. CUIRRENT SrUATION .......... ....................... ........ 6 Sector Orgnization and Institutio ...... ..................... ........ 6 Legilaton ............................................ 6 Sector Organization . . . ...................................... 6 Infrastructure. .,,,,,,,,, . .... .+* . ^ ..... . 6 Sliply Agreements ................................... 7 San Jose Accord ........ ... ....... 7 Crude Selection Under SJ Accord ........................ ...... 8 Nigeria Supply Agreement ... ............................ ... 9 Iv. SEC DOR ITES ................................... . 10 Ex-Refinery Pricing ...... ............. ....................... 10 AcquisitionDifferential ................ ........... .. ....... 12 Product Specifications .................................... 12 Ocean Freight .... ........ . ............................ 15 Round Wsland Movement ......... ............ .. ............ 17 Petrojam Shipping and Logistics ...................... .... ........ . . 18 Performance of Refinery ..... ....... .................... ........ 22 Capacity Definition ...... .................. .............. 22 PowerformeeCapacity ......... ............. .. ............. 24 Foreign Exchange onstraints ....... ......................... 24 Summary/Conclusion ....... ............ . 26 V. PRODUCT DEMANLD ..... ................................... ... 27 ... VI. LEASr COgr SUPPLY OP1lONS ............................................... 28 Methodolog ..................................................... 29 Case Seleion ..... ... * $......................... 30 Process EngineeringAnalyus .............. ..................... . 32 Crude and Product Pric Forecast ....... ... .... .................. .. 33 LP Model Configuraion and Outputs .............. . ............... . 44 Cash Flow Modeling Results - EIRR and NPV ...................... ... 45 Sensitivity Analysis ..... ............. ........................ 47 Export Orletedl Opions .. ...... .. . . .... # ..... 50 Grass-Roots Refinery ............................... ...... ... 50 VIl. FI1NANCLAL EVALUAT IO... ...... ........ 51 Methodology .................................................. 52 Case Selection ..................................................... 53 Financial Evaluation Results ..................................... 55 Sensitlvity Anayses ...... ..... ........................... 58 Debt/Eqity Structure .................................... 59 ANNEXES 4.1 Evaluation of Ex-Refinery Petroleum Product Price Structure 4.2 Petrojam Refinery Operating Performance 5.1 Jamaica Petroleum Product Demand Forecast 6.1 Petroleum Subsector Process Engineering Analysis 6.2 Crude and Product Price Forecast 6.3 Cash Flow Model 6.4 FeasIbility of Jamaica Grass Roots Refinery 7.1 Corporate and F!ancial Planning Analysis - Documentation Relating to the Financial Model iv FOREORD Ihis volume, in two paru, presents the consultants' flndings and recommendations concerning the liquid fuels secor in Jamaica as part of the Energy Sector Strategy and Investment Planning Study (ESSIPS). The analysis condain herin Is based on conditions and projections made in late-l990/early-1991, at the dme of the Prsian 6ulf War. Mr. William Mathews, Petroleum Economist, was the principal author and lead consutant for both sections of the repor. Part A: Petroleum Sector RiWew has been prepared on the basis of inputs from the individual consultants, as noted, and comments received on a working draft. A formal draft of the ESSIPS report cluding this volume) was dicuss with the government of Jamaica in September 1991 and comments were receved in January 1992 (vol. I, Annex 2.1). These comments have been reflected in the finalized ESSIPS reports. In view of the need to establish a framework that would promote competition under a liberaized import and pricing regime and that would maintain fis receipts, the government of Jamaica has engaged consultant working under supervision of the World Bank to carry out studies and draft leisation for the dereulation of the petroleum subsector as well as to prepare a specific strategy for the privtia of Ptrojam. Terms of reference for consultancy are shown in Vol. X, Annex 2.2. _ , tm Mwn Wliam Mattws, principal consultamt December 1990 January, March 1991 Ubado Hurtado, demand and price projections December 1990 Ton McCan, refinery engne January 1991 Tom Stelgerwald, produc import pricng April 1991 Jon Peet, shipping and logistcs April 1991 Kahleen Sambo, fina l analyst (Touche, Ross, Ogle; Kingston) March 1991 Part B: Evalaton of Fuel Grade Elhanol Producton was prepared with the assistance of Philmore Ogle and Kathlee Sambo of Touche, Ross, Ogle. The mission also benefited from discussions with Mr. Brian Cros, alcohol distillery engineer and consltant to PCJ. v ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYM AAC ambient air concntation JPS Jmica Public Service Corpaion ADO automv diesel oil kBD thousand barrels per day ASTM American Society for Tesdtg and LCEP least cost epsion pla Materials LDC less develop coumny API Amercanm Petroleum Institue LPG liquified petoleum gs bbl barrel (42 U.S. gUllons, 159 litres) LSFO low sufuw fu oil BCF Bolivar Coastal Field, 17- grvity, LV liquid volume a Venezuelan gade of crude oil MBD thosand barrels per day B-C ratio beefit-cost raio MDO marin sel oil BPCD barrels per calendar day MFPP Mistry of Finac, Planning, and ED or 1BPD barrels per day (calendar day) Production B) barrels per stmeam day mio million C3 propae MME Ministry of Mining and Energy C4 butane MO1 Jaican Minsy of Financ CBI Caribbean Basin Initiative MOGAS motor gasoline CFB cilating fluidized-e MTBE muethyltertarybutylether, a high- C&I commercIal and industrial octne blend stock for gasoline CIDA CndianlntionalDevelopment MW megawatt Agency NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality CPB cently planned econmy Standards DAF dissolved air flotation NCS National ConSevion Strategy DERD Ddense Eginedng Research and NUO rAngovermeta orgaizations Development (a British NO. itrogen oxides standar/specifications body) NRCA National Resources Conservation DSM demand side agment Authority EC Buropean Community NYH Now York Habor BIA envkavibl impact s_emmt PV present value BNDC Energy Sector Development RON Reseurch Octae Number Committee S sufur ESDPP Energy Sector Deret on and SFS Saybolt Puol Secoonds Privatization Project S% sulfur dioxide ESMAP Eny Sector Mnagement and SWECO Swedish Energy Comany Assistane Pogm T tome (metric ton) ESSIPS Eerg Sector Strategy and TEL tetretbyl lead, an octane additive Investmnt Planing Study for gasoline TEeylteffiarybutylether, a bigh USEC United States East Coast octane blend stock for gasolino USoC United States Gulf Coast FCC fluid catalytic cracer USMW United States Midwest FCCU fluid catalytic cracing unit WS worldscale FPGD fle gas desulfiuizing PS feedstock GPM gallos per miute GWh giwatt hei HFO heavy fbel oil HSFO Xhigh-sulfr fiul oil HO hatiug oil HIS hydrogen sulfide BIERR or JEMR iteral conomic rate of retwun vii CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS bm Jamaican doar is floatdg. The rt exca rate (July 1992)s J$22/US$. noe in prepaing this rpo was J$8.0/U$. ENERGY UNITS AND CONVERSIONS Gross Oil enryequivaent (Miikg (OE/MIT) Fuulwood (S% mcwb) 15.0 0.36 Chacod 30.0 0.72 crudeoil 42.6 1.00 LPO (prpan) 50.0 1.17 Gasolin 46.5 1.09 Kammsene 46.4 1.09 jet Fuel 46.4 1.09 Diese (A-DO) 46.0 1.08 1 kWh - 3.6 M - 860 kca 3,412 BTU - 0.086 kgwo 1 TOE - 7.3 barre of oil equiaet= - 11.63 MWh - 42 0J 10 mlokal - 39.68 million BTU Gasoline: 1,360 liters per MT Kermn: 1,26 litets per MT Diesel : 1,190 litrs per MT iii JAMAICA ENERGY SECTOR STRATEGY AND INVESTMENT PLANNING STUDY VOLUME II Liquid Fuels PART A PETROLEUM SECrOR REVIEW CONSULTANTS' REPORT -1- I. INMRODUCrION 1.1 The governmet of Jamaica (GOJ) is concerned that petroleum products should be supplied at least cost with due consideation for reliability of supply, environment protection, and public safty. In keeping with overall macroeconomic policies, responsibility for petroleum supply operations is to be shited to the private sector through the divestiture of the refinery and a liberalization of product Imports. lbis report provides a detailed evaluation of the three basic supply options (a) ;mportin all products, (b) contining to opea the refinery In its present configuration with minor investments, and (c) upgrading the refinery to varying degrees to increase the flexibility of operations and profitability. 1.2 While the anialysis of the refining options has been carried out to a pre-feasibility study level, this report does not remmend that the government should invest in any refinery upgrade prior to requsting propoals from private sector firms. Although the analyses indicates that refinery operation in Jamaica and upgrading are expected to be viable over the long term, it should be left to private sector investors to make their own assessments as woud be reflected in the prices offered. The circumnstances of prospective investors wil vary and may not correspond to the assumptions used In this analysis. Nonetheless, this report provides the government with an analytical framework for comparison of the proposals which it can expect to receive. 1.3 It is also assumed ta the goverment would move rapidly to liberalizing product imports in keeping wih its overall trade policy. An evaluation has therefore been made concerning the sensitivity of the refiney to the possible reduction in domestic product markets to direct importation. For the purpose of the study, it has been firther asumed that the refinery would operate as an independent producei purcbasing crude and product on the spot market or under supply agreements linked to the US Gulf Coast (USGC) or Caribbean regional spot markets. Any trade arrngements which the refinery opetor might offer which would lower the net costs of crude andlor product supply would clearly be to Jamaica's advantage and would be considered in the evaluation of the refinery purchase proposals. 1.4 Under all supply options it is assumed that the government wowld seek to minimize petroleum supply costs through open market competiton and specifically would not wish to substitute a private monopoly in place of the present public sector monopoly in refining and product importation. The sategy for making the transition from the present situion of virtua public sector monopoly on petroleum supply to a competitive private secor market structure has thorefore been examined in Chapter IV. i -2 - Ie. SUMMARY, CONCLUSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 2.1 heO petroleum subsector in Jamaica at present is managed by a mix of public and privat enerprise. PCI, through it subsidhiy Petrojam, has a de facto monopoly on refning and bulk product supply by virtue of etng tariff protection. Wholesale distribution and management of real networks are dominated by thre local affiliates of itnational majors-ESSO, Shell, and Texaco-while PETCOM, a subsidiary of PCJ/Petrojam, participates to a minor extent in thbis segment of the industry. Road traportti and operation of retail outlets are In the hands of private Jamaican entrepreneurs. 2.2 Jamaica is party to two supply agreements, the San Jose Accord (SJA) and a bilateral agreemet with the government of Nigeria. Under the SJA, Jamaica receives crude oil and finished products from Mexico and Venezuela up to a total limit of 26 KBD on concessionary financing terms. 'lbe Nigerian agreemet is a governmentto-government arrangement under which PCJ can lift up to 20 KBD of Nigeran crude at commercial terms and dispose of as it wishes. 2.3 Peroleum product prices are decontrolled at the wholesale and retal levels, but still controlled at the main bulk supply points, ex-reflnery or marine receiving depot. The ex-refinery/depot price structure is based on the principle of import parity for finished products supplied from the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) as reference market. 2.4 Chapter m provides detail on the current situation in the sector, while chapter IV disusses the main issues affecting sector efficiency. Chapter V presents an analysis of Jamaican product demand with a forecast to the yer 2010 as one of the principal inputs to an analysis of least cost supply opos as presented in chapter VI. Chapter VII provides the rests and conclusions of a financial evuti of selected options from the economic analysis of least cost supply. Following is a res=me of the main conclusions and recommendations arising from this analysis of sector issues and supply Conclusions 2.S Ihe total Jamaica product conumpion excluding the bauxite demand is projected to lcease from 30 kBD at pst to 3S KBD by 2000 and 44 KBD by 2010 (ara. S.2). Including the baxite demand, mosty heavy fuel oil, the consumption figures would be 43 kBD at present, S4 kBD in 2000, and 64 kBD In 2010. percog Qf R^ery 2.6 Petojam has run its refinery at about half of nominal rated capacity of 35,500 BPCD in recet years, import roughly half of tota product requirements as finished products. The nominal capacity of 35,500 BPCD is, however, ovestated. Based on powerfmer asoline unit), allowance for - 3 - planned and unforese outages and oeig exchange constraints, tme avilable capacity over the pst five yeas is td to b in the 23,000 to 25,000 BPCD rang. ELftofta Pridnfg 2.7 A totl saving to Jamaican consumers on product supply cost of up to US$15 million per year could be ahieved through adjustments to the ox-reinery prici forma tirough a combinton of market efficiency improvements, changes in product specifications, and associated parity rece pricing In advac of market dergulation. Leas Cogt Suony ptions 2.8 The existing refinery capacity of 35 kBD, witout upgrading, and If efficiently operated, is suffiient to meet the projecte product supply needs of Jamaca to the year 2010, with a minimum of product impors in later ye=s. This excludes the bauxite/alumina industry demands. Tbis case is termed 'business as usual.' 2.9 Based on crude and product price forecas made in early 1991, refiig of available feedstocs to produce finished products in Jamaica at the exitng Kingsoon site with efficient operation of exisng facities would be a more economic supply option than closing the refinery and rminaling ImVorted products at the same site. This conclusion assumes a minimum of refinery upgrading and efficoency Investmets, and cotuesponds to a 'business-as-sual' case, albeit with more effective management of all sector related operations including foreign exchange management. This conclusion confirms the reslts of several earlier studies.' 2.10 The addition of a catalytic cracker and ancillary facilities to the existing refinery at present crude capacity, an incremental investment over temaling of some US$130 milion would be economicaly vlHble, earing an EIRR of 27 percent veus the termina case and 20 pert versus the 'business-as-usual case. e snsitivities to both lower refinery marg and a decline in market volume indicated that not only was the target EIRR stil achieved, but that it was more robust to such contingencies than was the "business-as-usual" case. 2.11 The expansion of the refinery crude capacity to 50 IBD, the limit of the exsng site, plus a larger balanced catytic cracler, an incremental investment over terminaling of some US$ 170 million though economically viable at an EIRR of 25 percent, shows a slight decline in returns veru the exstg-cacity case due to icemental dependence on lower-margin export business. The hdgher investment combined with this reliance on export busies for about 25 percent of output makes it a riser project an the existing capacity case which relies almost exclusively on the domesic mar 1. A?J epo on Pearom homenx, RAfi ad DWObaox1 Novmbr 18 $emal PON* hWe &vAn of rfne spvft ad xaso condced sbc 1986 Jqpan Coauln Istdte, 7FeabIt SMad on Fuel 0 Upgrad Phct Jaoin a, * may 1987. PMnK. 6 aGr "PareJn Rneyr Valuatio Su4, Iarn.uy 1986 -4- 2.12 The expansion of the refinery to 100 kBD, involving the integration of existing facilities with a new site and with filly upgraded export capability, is not a feasible case at projected refining margins. The low returns on the major export business are insufficient to earn the target return on the large invtatment of some US$740 million. 2.13 A grass-roots refinery in Jamaica dedicated to the export business would not be economically viable for an independent refiner; direct access to crude or markets might improve the economics sufficiently to justify new capacity at a 'green field' location, but in that case Jamaica would merely be leasing the site. San Jose Accord and Crude Selection 2.14 The gross value of the short-term financing under the San Jose Accord is about US$0.30 per barrel of crude oil at present. Tbere does not appear to be any additional benefit realizable under the more concessionary long-term feature of the Accord. 2.15 Based on extensive linear programming analysis of refinery facilities options, iour crude grades, Venezuelan BCF 24, BCF 17, Mexican Isthmus, and Ecuadorean Oriente were found to be about equal in economic value as feedstocks to the refinery. Maya crude from Mexico and Nigerian Forcados were uneconomic grades for the Petrojam refinery. 2.i0 Due to short-term benefit of the Accord combined with the economic debit on Maya crude, which must be taken along with the better Isthmus grade, the Venezuelan grades are about US$0.30 per barrel better than the Mexican mix or Oriente from Ecuador. 2.17 The Nigerian crude supply agreement would not provide any benefits as a feedstock in the Kingston refinery. The other crudes as discussed above were found to provide a net advantage of US$3.00 to US$4.00 per barrel compared with the typical Nigerian crudes which could be iefined by Petrojam. Financial Eauaton 2.18 The net foreign exchange cost of Jamaica's total product supply would be some US$1.40 per barrel lower for refining of crude oil to finished products than for 100 per cent terminaling of imported products. 2.19 The upgraded cracking refinery is lower cost than the "business-as-usual" facility as well as being more robust and flexible in the face of possible uncinties such as loss of local market in a deregulated environment. 2.20 Both the refining versus terminaling and cracking versus *business-as-usual" conclusions are robust to sensitivities to lower markets, lower margins, and different capital structures for the refining company. With an assumption of loss of local market combined with lower itaional rednin margins, the cracking case Is si lower cost ha "buiness-as-us" and both refig cas are lower cost than termnan. (pa. 7.11). Recomedations Lent Cost y and Financial Evaluaton 2.21 Ibe govement should proceed with plans to attract qualified priva foreip paters to pardcpo in the ownership and op%atlon of the Petrojam refiery. A detiled Request for Proposal document shoud be prepared with speclist asita to be provided under the Privat Sectot Energy Deveopment technic assistance package. Further fiacal analysis should be carried out to deermine the opimm strategy concerning seeing private participadon before or after investng in the rnry upgrade. 2.22 The govement should not participate in any major export refinery projet, either hough siicant expansion of the existn fality or a "gra-roots" plant on a new site. 2.23 Any prop for a mJotranshipmenttermnal should be subject to the most carebl scruny, particuarly with regard to the e omenta risk, and the goverment should not invet or accept any rik in a pject. San Jose Accord and Cmde Selection 2.24 In order to realize minimm net benefits under the San Jose Accord, the government should approah the governent of Mexico with a view to relaxing the requirement tgat Jamaica must tak a mhinimm of 30 per cent Maya crude in mix with lighmt grades of Mexdcan, such as 1stm. 2.25 A two-phaso approach to improving efficiency of the sector through increased competiton (a) Sbm. Continance of price control with an improved import parity strcture adminised by the Price Comissbon. Creation of a Hydrocarbon Directorat in MPUTE to ac as technical secretariat and overal task manager and coordinator for govenment acidvies In the subsector. Ob) Myd,um4erm'. Following the establishment of a govenment subsector management capability, includig price and proftability montorg and common cardler regulation mechanisms, complee price derguado and ort libealizon. -6- m. CURRENT SiTUATION Setr OrganIaion and InttutIons 3.1 The pres Istiuona stuctur was esablished through the Petolem Act of 1979 wheeby the Ptoleum Corporaton (PCI) was created to manage the entire sector under the supervision of the Minity of Mng and Energy. PCI was empowered to engae In petroleum exploration, refing, crude and product importation. It was also free, with the approval of the Miister, to form subsidiaries to carry out any acdvities permitted under the Act and has done so notably in seting up Petojam as the refining subsidiary. Petrojam itsf has subsidiaries engaged in etnol production in Jamaica and in Belize. 3.2 Ihe Act perms PCJ to engage in a wide range of activites including marketig and ransportion. Although not specified in the Act, PCJfPetrojam has a virual monopoly on petroleum product hIportng by vitue of the precedent established in 1963, when the refinery was built, to ensure profitabilty and maximum utilization. PCJ/Petrojam can import crude and products free of duties and taxes. Other Importe are required to pay 10-30 percent customs duties, and an additional stamp duty of 40 orcent. AU operators, Petrojam included, pay common consumption duty on ex-depot or ex- rmery price. 3.3 Major petroleum compamies active in Jamaica as product marketers include Esso, Shell, and Texaco. In addition, Petojam apeaes a subsidiary Petcom which operate one service station and distibutes LPG. Following dereguation of retail prices of most products in Setembr 1990 increased compeddon is evident. A new distribung organization of independent service stations has been formed and new investment in service station facilities is occurring. May of the structural issues noted in the 1985 Energy Assessment report will be resolved as a result of deregulation; however, it is too early yet to draw firm conclusions. Jnfr- 3.4 As descibed in more detail below, Petrojam owns and operates a simple hydrski_mmg reBwy In Kingon with a nominal crude capacity of 3,SO brrels per calendar day. Its port facilities are able to a tankers of up to 50,000 deadweight tonnes (DWT). The refinery has total cde oil and product tnkage of some 2.2 million barels. This includes about 300 thousand barrels of tankage used for marketng and loading rack sales. The refinery supplies product to the three marketers in Kngsto, for thei K son area sales and other buk consmes, though a refinery-owne loadig rack. -7- 3.5 ESSO, SheJl, and Texaco each main product storage ternals In Kingston, tirough which, prior to the construction of the refinery, they imported finished product. These tminas stll have an import capability, although they each have their particular limiting chacteitics as regards tanker si/draf, product capacities, and product segregations. The marketers also share a joint aviation depot at Norman Manley aiport, Kingston. In Montego Bay, Shell and ESSO own and opea separate terminals for product receiving, storage, and onward sales. Total marketing company storage capacity in both Kngston and Montego Bay is about 1 million barrels. 3.6 The two main transportation fuels, gasoline and diesel, are sold through a network of some 250 retail outlets, which are about equally divided among the 3 mulional marketers. These retail network are supplied by road tanker from loading racks in Kingstn and Montego Bay. The marketing company oudets are about 60 pecent company-owned and leased to independent dealers, with the remainder dealer-owned and operated. There are only two outlets in Jamaica which are both owned and opersed direcdy by salaried company staff. The road transportation between loading rack and the outlets is provided by a group of independent road haulage conractors. Supply Agremens Sani Jose Accord 3.7 Jamaica is party to two supply agreements, the San Jose Accord and a bilateral agreement with the government of Nigeria. The San Jose Accord was originally established in August 1980 by the supplying countries of Veanea and Mexico and was renewed for the eleventh time in August 1990 on the following terms: (a) The supplying countries woud continue to provide jointly up to 130 kBPD, depending on requirements of beneficiaries and availability of supplies. (i) Supplies are controlled by the policies and commercW practices of the state oil companies of Mexico and Venezuela with regard to letter of credit requirements and pricing; although originally designed as a crude oil supply agreement, these prices have permitted the import of products under special arrangements with the individual state companies. (c) Credits wiUl be anted trough official financing entities for 20 percent of the invoiced value of a cargo; the general, commercial exchange of goods and services wil be financed under the shortterm credit, and economic development projects will be financed under the longer term, more concessionary arrangement. ^ 8 - (d) Short-term credits for general financing purposes are granted in US dollars at 8 percent per annum interest for up to 5 years, while long-term credits for development projects ae granted up to 12 years at 6 percent per annum interest. 3.8 Under an informa arrangement, Jamaica presently could lift up to 13 KBPD from each of Mexico and Venezuela (the formal agreement sets the quantity at 11 KBPD). Volumes lifted in the most recent fiscal year (1990-91) did not exceed about 10.2 KBPD from each of the two Accord sources, on a total crude run of 20.4 KBPD. During the previous four years, total crude rus were even lower, averaging some 15 KBPD over the period. 'Me lifting rule on sourcing of crudes at the refinery has been to force in equal volumes of Venezuelan and Mexican up to the Accord limits, and then beyond this as necessary, to source the most economic crude based on the available feedstock slate and the short-run optimization performed with the help of the refinery's linear programwning (LP) models. It Is clear, however, ftat these limits have never been reached, and therefore, lifting procedures beyond this not tested. The free crude selection within the LP model, for volumes beyond Accord limits, would include an ealuaton of the economics of runng non-Accord crudes such as Oriente from Ecdor, as well as traditonal Accord grades such as BCF 17 and BCF 24 from Venezuela (including spike components as options), and the IsthmuslMaya mix from Mexico. 3.9 In 1991 the goss value of the short-term financing under the Accord was about US$0.30 per barrel at marginal government borrowing rates of 12 percent and an average crude cost of US$16.00 per barrel. Ihe terms of the Accord and atendant benefits have been reduced significandy over the years by Venezuela and Mexico. At inception in 1980 the short-term credit was for 30 percent of the invoiced value at an interest te of 4 percent for 5 years. At $16.00 per barrel crude and the same marginal borrowing rate of 12 percent this was worth $0.90 per barrel, three times the current benefit. Because of complications in convertg the short-term credit to the more concessionary long-term financing, there is no additiona beneflt from this aspect of the Accord. These complications relate to the difficult process of getting Venezuelan or Mexican approval for qualifying development projects under the second tranche,' and in restricons placed by the Venezuelans and Mexicans on sourcing of project equipment and services. Ihese latter restrictions diminish, if not render negative, the value of the long-term credit, even if a development project were approved. Crude Selection Under SJ Accord 3.10 The exeence of the ESSIP study team in runing the refinery LP to select feedstocks and optmize the operatons, using relative crude pricing based on the value of the different grades in main markets, indicates that the two Venezuelan grades, Mexican Isthlmu and Oriente from Ecuador are al rougbly equal in economic attractiveness to the refinery. One or another of these crudes has each come ino the solution, at tmes, as the most economic crude for a given demand pattern while the others of 9- these four excluded from the particular solution never have a shadow value2 exceeding about US$0.10 to 0.20 per barel. It is concluded, therefore, from an analysis of some 100 LP cases including business- as-usuad and the fill range of upgrade/expansion runs, that these four crudes are all In the same range of economic appeal to the refinery. 3.11 Other crudes tested were Mayan from Mexico and Nigerian Forcados. The heavy Mayan grade is not favored by the refinery; it was not selected to be run in any of the LP cases, and its shadow value was genrly in the US$0.70 to US$1.00 per barrel range. Nigerian Forcados is even frther from consideration; it was nver selected and its shadow value was In the US$3.00 to US$4.00 per barrel range. The fact that the Mexica force its customers, including Petrojam, Jamaica, to take a minimum of 30 percent Maya along with the more attractive Isthms grade, would make the Isthmus/Maya mix about US$0.20 to US$0.30 per barrel less attractive than the Venezuelan and Oriente grades. The effect of the Accord credit, therefore, is to put the Venezuelan grade at an advantage over Mexican mix or Oriente, equivalent to the amount of this credit. The government should press the Mexicans to relax their requirement for minimum liftings of the Maya grade, since its inclusion at 30 percent along with Isthmus nudllfies any Accord benefits. iUga %W&l AWN 3.12 Under this Agreement, Jamaica through PCi can lift up to 20 KBPD and trade or use the oil as it chooses. Based on current and projected crude and shipping prices, it is more profitable to trade the Nigeia crude rather ta transport it to Jamaica for refining. Crude oil trading is handled by Vitol, a commercial tradig rm on contract to PCI and acting on instructions from PCJ to lift. Vitol looks after the sale and gives PCa a guaranteed margin. 3.13 The refinery linear programming model consistently selects crudes other than Nigerian as providing the leat cost solution, as a result, the Nigerian Supply Agreement can be considered primarily as a trading reement but which in a case of supply shortages could be used to supply the Petrojam refinery. 2. Shadow vlf aofadr oi or o6herfactor byq, *kh dd wr get selcted In a lea programmig solaa, Ist ........ ....... ........... ....... ........... ....... ...... ............... TOTAL FUEL PRODUCTS 15,322 17,985 19.464 19,309 20,576 22,685 LUSES 83 92 112 143 191 233 ASPNALT 97 109 138 185 262 331 ............. ....... ........... ....... ........... ....... ........ ........... TOTAL ALL PRODUCTS 15,S03 18,186 19,714 19,637 21,030 23,249 EWIVALENT KID TOTAL ALL PRODUCTS 42.5 49.8 54.0 53.8 57.6 63.7 EXCLWING BAXITE 28.1 30.3 34.7 34.5 38.3 4.4 5.2 As hIdicated, acul consumption of some 15.5 million batrels in 1989 is projected to inces to increase to 19.6 million by the year 2000 and 23.2 million by 2010. The corresponding figures In kIB) are 42.5, 53.8 and 63.7 respectively. These figures include a significant demand, prmiy heavy fuel oil, by the bauxite/alumina industry. As dised in Annex 5.1 this industry is not requed to source its uel requirements from the Petrojam reinery and may engage In direct iportaion, or local souing as it dcooses. The bauxite companies generally put their fuel requirements up for comptiive bIddng on a yearly basis. Due to a combinaton of price uncompetitiveness and quality, Perojam is genally excluded from spplying HPO to the bauxi Industry. As illustrated, toa Jamaica coNOumtio excluding dtis major HFO reqrementwas 28.1 IkD in 1989, projected to increa to 34.5 KBD by 2000 and 44.4 kBD by 2010. -28 - 5.3 Table 5.2 illustrates Jamaica's acual and forecast product mix, based on the two (bauxite HFO, non-bauxite HFO) cases. As illustrated the Jamaican demand mix with bauxite included is a relatively heavy one, with HFO accounting for more than half total requirements on a volumetric basis. This HFO proportion drops to the 35 to 40 percent range witiout bauxite considered In the total mix. TABLE 5.2 JAMAICA PRODUCT DEMAND MI (VolumetrIc basis, Fuel Products Only) WITH BAUXITE W/O BAUXITE 1989 199S 2000 1989 199S 2000 LPG 3.1X 3.3X 4.2X 4.7K 5.1X 6.6X AVGAS 0.1X 0.1X 0.1X 0.1X 0.1X 0.2X ONOR GASOLINE 12.7X 12.0K 14.0K 19.3X 18.8K 22.0X KERO/TNRtO 10.3K 9.8K 11.6X 15.6" 15.4K 18.3K AUTO DIESEL 11.KX 9.5 9.6X 17.7K 15.0K 15.2K NPRINE DIESEL 3.3K 2.9K 3.2K 5.0% 4.6K 5.1K HFO 58.9K 62.4K 57.2X 37.5K 41.1X 32.6X ...... ........ ...... ------... ------ ------. ... ...... ... .......... TOTAL FUEL PRODUCTS 100.0X 100.0K 100.0K 100.0K 100.0X 100.0K VI. LEASM COSI SPPILY OPTIONS 6.1 There are several options for fitumre supply of petroleum products to Jamaica which vary in respect to both supply infrstrcture and institutional/regulatory framework. The principal inrsructure variadons involve teaminaling of imported finished products versus refining in Jamaica of Imported crude oil to finished products. Within the Jamaica refining option, there are different feedstock selection equipment configuation and capacity variations possible for crude processing to meet Jamaica's demand alone. In addition to refining to meet national demands, there are incremental export refining possibilities, which if profble, could serve to reduce the net cost of Jamaic's supply needs. The insh tionallregatory variations involve different ownership structures for the supply facilities as well as aspects of project fincing and regulation of price and trading. 6.2 In view of the complexity of analyzing simultaneously all the i uctre and institutional/regulatory options a two-phase approach was used for the over-all analysis of the least cost supply options: (a) An economic screening study of a number of discrete supply facilities cases. (b) A detailed financial evaluation of the most economically attractive of the facilities cases. 6.3 This chaptr summaizes the economic screening study of various alternative petroleum product supply/refin investment cases. Chapter VII presns the financial evaluation of selected cases. - 29 - Mehodology 6.4 The following presens the methodology of the study: (a) A limited nmber of reasonable, dicrete petroleum product supply/refining Investment cases were selected and defined for analysis. (b) A detaed process engineering anysis of each investment case was executed; this included the required equipmeat configuration, capacities, and attdant capital and opraing costs associated with each ce Tis analys, the results of which are included as Annex 6.1, also incorporat environmental and product quality considerations related to each case. (c) An Integrated internationallrglona crude oil and product price forecast was prepared. Annex 6.2 comprises this crude and product price forecast spreadsheet, with aompanying 'd on. (d) A Petrojam refinery linear programming (LP) model was modified and adapted to the needs of the study; some 100 LP cases were prepared and run in order to define the refinery crude selection, material balance, and equipment configraton for selected future years for the differeat refinery investment cases. The optimization objective was to satisfy at minimum cost, the Jamaican petroleum product demands as outined in Chapter V. (e) A detailed economic cash flow model (using Lotus 1-2-3 software) was prepared which intea all the LP outpu, i.e. refinery production, import and export balances, with crude and product prices, Jamaica demand volumes, inv esm and operting costs for the differen invement case; Economic Intnal Rate of Return (ElR) and Net Present Value (NPV) were calculated for each of the refining cases, incremea to a base all- product-Import case. (t) The economic analysis framework with illustration of al data flows and linages is outd in the flowsheet, Figure 6.1. (a) The EIRR and NPV results were analyzed for sensitivity to lower Jamaican demand on the refineiy and to lower refiig margins than in the base poduct/crude price relationsip. -30- Cas Seleton 6.5 The alternative cases were selected and defined through the process of reviewing earlier studies on invement and expansion options, and extensive discussions with Petrojam refinery technical staff. The earlier studies included: (a) ESMAP Report on Petoleum Procurement, Refining and Distribution, November 1986. (b) Several Petrojam inhouse studies of refinery upgrading and expansion conducted since 1986. (c) Japan Consulting Institute, "Feasibility Study on Fuel Oil Upgrading Project in Jamaica," May, 1987. (d) Purvin & Gertz, 'Petrojam Refinery Valuation Study," January, 1986. 6.6 Five petroleum product supply cases were defined as follows: (a) Bae (ternwlnaling) - Shut down the refinery process units and inWr all pmduts using the exisdn port facilities, transfer lines, tankage and other refinery offsites as required for the terminaling operation. It was anticipated that some minor investments would be required in tankage modificationlconversion, product line tie-ins and cross-overs and environmental contol facilities. (b) Altente (refinn I - *business-as-usual," minimum imestment in the existing refinery In order to carry on business, but with enhanced efficiency and capability of meeting all anticipated product specifications and environmental standards. This case was projected to involve a reformer upgrade, an light naphtha isomerizer for 100 percent unleaded gasoline production capability, some tanage, and immediate pollution abatement. The refinery would remain a hydroskimmer with the same rated pipestill capacity as at present, 35,500 BPD. There would be no cracking/conversion or atmospberic pipesill debottlenDe ckidg investmenl t. -31- FIGURE 6.1: JAMAICA ESSIP STUDY - SCHEMATIC OF PETROLEUM SECTOR ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM PRICE. . LPINP.WKIi DEN AD WKi _Cruade Proeluct _ CotrafMnts, CapabiLities Ja ce0 Product_ L Price forecast Prcs Demnd Demand Ferecrst l REFINERY LINEAR PROGM Nutti-Year Senral Programs APITAL.WKI REFTRAD .WIt OPCOST.WI Terminal and Rfin ery Refinery Crude Inports Terminal and Refinery LInestment Suury Produt imorts/exports operating Cost Swmry IREPPLAN. W1K1 W ~~Cash FLow Nod. b IWV,~~IRN -32 - (c) AIWrnate (reflalng) II- = in aatalytic cracker with capacity balanced to the existing pipestlll capacity, primarily for reduction in the cost of product spikes or lighter whole crude feedstock to meet the given domestic product demand. There would be no atmospheric pipestill debottlenecking investment, capacity remaining at 35,500 barrels/day, but all the nssary product quality and pollution abatement investments would be included as in Case I. (d) Alternate (refining) m - maximum inves at exigtin site in a larger catalytic cracker plus a major debotdenecking/expansion of crude running to the highest practical level at this refinery site, with the existing pipestill. The expanded crude capacity would be 50,000 bbl/day and the cat cracker capacity would be increased to the balanced level. The incremental investment above Case II is primarily devoted to an export refning capability. (e) Alternate (reflning) IV - sit and facil eanion This case would incorporate all investments as in (d) plus a new pipestill and processing unit. Becuse of space limitations at the existing site, some existing tanks would have to be relocated, and additioa storage tanks built on a separate site, identified as land to be reclaimed near Portmore Causeway. The total capacity of the xpanded refinery is assumed to be 100,000 bbl/day. It would be a major export refining case. ProCes Engiee1ing Analyds 6.7 The base taminaling case and the refining cases I, II and I defined above were analyzed by RTM Engineering Ltd., Calgary, Alberta, Canada, at the prefeasibility level of definition to arrive at required process configurations and capacities and attendant capital and operating costs. The major export refning Case IV was defined in terms of preliminary concepts only, with resultant order-of- magnitude capital and operat costs defined. The results of this study are contained in Annex 6.1, Jamaica Energy Strategy and Investment Planning Study, Petroleum Subsector, Process Engineering Analysis.' The main outputs from this study were used as inputs to the economic cash flow analysis and fiacial evaluation, as summarized in Table 6.1. 6.8 The main objectiv of the analysis was to define the technical and economic parameters of the selected cases so that the cash flow screening analysis and financial evaluation could be performed with confidence. Opdmization decisions such as the sizing of selected upgrade facilities and amount of pre-invme_n to include in procurement of major equipment are properly left to a commercial operator to make in the process design phase. -33 - TABLE 6.1: SUMMARY OF OUTPUTS PROM PROCESS ENGINEERING ANALYSIS mA8E REFINING ALTERNTES TERMIL I it III IV PROCESS UltT CAPACITIES, KlCD ............................ CRWE PIPESTILL(B) MA 35.5 35.5 S0.0 100.0 POUFORER(s) NA 5.0 5.0 5.0 12.0 CATALYTIC CRACKER NA MA 11.5 17.5 18.5 LVN ISOMERIZER MA 2.0 2.0 2.0 6.0 HYDROCRACKER MA MA MA MA 1S.0 VISSREAKER MA MA MA MA 18.5 ALKYLATION MA NA IA MA 2.3 CAPITAL USS NILLION 191 ,,,,,..................-....... PROJECT 2.6 15.5 130.5 175.7 737.0 SUSTAINING, YEARLY 0.4 2.5 3.3 3.7 5.0 OPERAtING COSTS ............................ FIXED U MILLIOWY 5.7 11.0 15.2 17.9 31.1 VARIABLE USKL 0.06 0.22 0.32 0.38 0.36 6.9 As Indicated, the main process unit capacities and capital and operating costs for each case are compared. The project capital investmet, ranging from US$ 15.5 million in refining alternate I, to US$ 737 mllIon ncase IV, is all spent over a three to ur year period at inception. 'e sustaining capital investment is an estimate of the regular yearly extent of renewal and rebabilitation expenditure required to maintain the opeting capability of an ageing plant. 6.10 Ihe capital investment for each case includes provisions for pollution abatement facilities such that the refinery would conform to prese&t average North American standards in all cases. These Investments include a sour water strpper, p n of tankage dyked areas, improved oily water collecion, additional new oily water separators combined with downstream dissolved air flotation, and, m the FCC cams, recovery of sulfur from off-es. Crude and Product Price Forecast 6.11 An essent input to this product supply/refing investment analysis is an integrated crude oil and product price forecast. Anne 6.2 comprises a description of the basis for this projection and summaizes the actual year-by-year prices in spreadsheet form. Since the product-crude relationship Implicity embodies a grs refinery margin aumption, it is probably the single most important body of input data relevant to the de nain of the econornics of refining compared with direct product importation. lhis forecast is based on the asumption of a return to pecrisis crude supply/demand bala and price levels after the IraqGulf conflict. It conforms to the World Bank Scenario 'rapid return to Ormalcy pret In the fall of 1990 by the nternatonal Commodity Markets Division. The Bank forecast of crude price was shown in terms of the 'OPBC average" crude price only. From the base frecast of 'OPEC average' price, the prices of OPEC and non-OPEC crudes, including common .34 reference grades, we derived using historical price diffetals. Table 6.2 provides a summary of the resutant crude price forecast for key forecast years. TABLE 6.2: CRUDE PCE FORECAST BASED ON DIFERENTIALS FROM WORLD BANK FORECAST OF OPEC AVERAGE USS/BARREL (1990 CONSTANT PRICES) ALL FOB SOURCE, EXCEPT AS 1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 NOPEC AVERAGE" 22.49 17.76 22.84 22.49 22.49 WTI 24.60 19.52 24.98 24.60 24.60 AM CIF USGC 22.74 17.95 23.10 22.74 22.74 BRENT 23.52 18.44 23.90 23.52 23.52 ARAB LT. 21.03 16.61 21.36 21.03 21.03 LAGOTRECO 31 21.84 17.24 22.18 21.84 21.84 FURRIAL 21.14 16.78 21.54 21.11 21.23 5CF 24 19.74 15.70 20.22 19.67 19.95 SOF 17 16.94 13.62 17.54 16.74 17.33 ISTHIUS 22.78 17.99 23.14 22.78 22.78 NAYA 18.94 15.11 19.45 18.83 19.20 FORCADOS 23.85 18.77 24.23 23.85 23.85 ORIENTE 21.41 16.50 21.77 21.41 21.41 6.12 The absolute level of these crude prices is only relevant to a reining project anays in tat i set a general price and supply/demand environment for products in relation to crude. This forecast rrsen a reatively low crude price forecast compared with the "conventional wisdom' of one or two years ago. On the basis of low real price of petoleum compared with other cost factors, a stimulation of product demand is expected. The anticipated strong growth in product demand will filly utilize a much-reduced international/regional refining capacity. Extreme measures were taken in the early 1980s to ationalize refining as a reaction to the collapse in petroleum demand. This action resulted in refinery shutdown, decomiss and outright scrapping of plant on a massive scale worldwide. Total world refining capacity declined by about 10 million barrels per day or 20 percent of pre-rationalization levels. 6.13 Conisten with this "stimulated demand scenario it is expected that refining margins will be healthier in the futur In order to support the necessary capacity expansion and upgrading investmeits. ITere are, in fact, concens that ot enough new capacity is under construction or on the drawing boards at the moment. Just prior to the Iraq crisis in summer 1990, the refinery utilizaton rates in the US peaked at just over 90 prcent With the combined effect of higher oil prices and the economic recession, rates declined to the 85 percent range recendy but are expected to rebound strongly with economic recovery and the sdmulus of lower oil prices. Many of the major oil companies in the US, with complex upgraded faciities, ran their plants close to flat-out during the peak summer 1990 gasolinemaking period. 7th industry's stDck of upgrading facilities - the cat crackers and cokers to convert heavy residuals to gasoline - I ruig at close to full capacity. Although West European utilization rates in the 75 percent range indicate spare dtillation capacity, much of this under-utilized capacity consists of older, simple, inffcie plant which is not necessily well-placed logisically with present trading and traffic patterns. -35 - The so-led entrepOt refies in the Mediterra , built as export refineries to seveWWesteurope, ar exaples of this type of faclity. The entrep6t refineries In the Caribbean were also built for a similar supply role for the US market. Although stlll performing a useful balancing fimution, such facilities will need sbstai investment if they are to meet the growing demand for light products without flooding the market with an excess of ful oil. 6.14 Inhent in the base product price forecast of this study are gross rdining margins that are slighdy higher than tie avrage experienced in the US Gulf Coas during 1988 through mid-1990. As illustrated in Annex 6.2, the US Gulf Coast Cracking refinery gross margin for BCF 17 crude inherent in the present base product price forecast is $4.58/barrel. This margin compares with an estmated average of $4.21/barrel for actual USGC cracking margins over the three yeas, 1988-90 and $3.48 per barrel over the longer 1986-90 period. The base forecast represents a real increase on avenge of 9 percnt over the 20 year period compared with the 1988-90 average and 32 percent compared with the 1986-90 period. Even the change from 1986-90 only represents a yearly average real compound grwth of 2.3 percent from 1988 to 2000, the mid-points of each period. The historical growth and foreae trd in margins are illustrated in graphical form Figures 6.2 and 6.3. 6.15 Margin can reasonably be expected, if anything, to increase to levels well beyond the $4.58 per barrel assumed as an average over the 20 year forecast period. To put this assumption in pepective, a gross margin of roughly $7.00/bel would have to be earned in order to amordze the .capital and pay operating costs on a new cracking refinery, assuming a USGC location and 1991 cost levels. With the projected continuous expansion and upgrading required, in addition to capital replacemt, it is expected that gross USGC margins will reach this level in 1991 dollars by the year 2010 at the latest, the end of the forecast period/project life for this study. 6.16 The *Jamaica Grass-Roots Refinlngw paper, Annex 6.4, reached a similar conclusion that new grass-roots refining will be required in the region at about 2010. Even before then, during the mid t late 1990s, considerable simple tOpping capacity available in the region will have to be upgraded to cracking and coking at costs per dafly barrel (of disllation capacity) that will range 60 to 75 percent of at of new, grass-roots facilities. Such investment wiUl require USOC equivalent gross margins in the $4.50 to $5.50 (1991 real) per barrel range in order to be justified. Assuming a compound growth trend line from $4.00 per barrel margin in 1990 to $7.00 in 2010, the equivalent levelled margin over the period would be $5.37 per barrel. This is 17 percent above the base level assumed for the study. Figure 6.4 illustrates the trend line forecast of margins. The 1995-2000 period of this trend line indicates margins in the US$4.50 to US$5.50 range, which is consisten with the minimum level of margin reqired to support the upgrading of regional spare capacity. 6.17 When refining margin levels are specified in a planning study, it is understood that they are on the basis of a trend line of two or three year rolling averages. Becase of shorttem supply/demand imbalances in individual product markect, inventory effects and the medium-tem effects of the capital cycle in refinery construction, there will be significant fluctuaion around the longer-erm moving average. Such volatity in margin is illustated by the graph figure 6.5, which shows the yearly - 36 - moving average USGC cracking margin 1986-90, by quarter as a percentage of the 1986-90 total period average margin. As indicated, yearly margins have ranged from as low as 60 percent to as high as 140 percent of the tred line. The effect of such volatility on the year-by.year cash/financing siution will be examined as a sensitivity in the fincial evaluation by asming a fluctuation profile similar to that in evidence during 1986-90, with the low margin assumed in the early project yean. 6.18 There are several world export refining ceters and important trading centers with major spot product market activity such as the US Gulf Coast, New York Harbor, Roterdam, and Singapore. Of these the USGC was chosen as the regional product market most relevant to the pricing and direct product supply to and from Jamaica. The "Caribbean Spot' market, though quoted in Platts, is prently too "thin" to serve as a reliable price reference; its quoted values are largely derived as netbacds from NY Harbour Spot prices and it is seldom used, for example, as reference basis in regional product supply Contas. USGC Spot, on the other hand is a common marker for products in the region. USGC CRACKING REFINING HIS VOR1CM. GROSS MARGINS 5.00 4.00 _ J _' 19t6.90 AVG. 3.41 3.00 2.00 1.00 X -1 t I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 0.00 t 1986 4 1987 1 V1988 1989 1 1990 4 QUARTR MOVING AVERGE BASE REFINING MARGIN ASSUMED FOR STUDY IN TERMS OF USGC CRACKING 6.00 ACTUALS FOECAST-> 5.00 4.58 4.00 w~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ m3.00 '9 In 2.00~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 2.00 0.00 1986 11995 2005 1990 2000 2010 BASE USGC REFINING MARGIN ASSUMED 8.00 ~V TRN TO SUCO) EXPANSION ..WRA ROOT 7.00 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~CRACKING ACTUALS* FORECAST - > 6.00 .SS AVG. OP EVXANSION TREND lUNE 5.37 5~~~~~~~~~~~~~. .. . .. . . 0 ( ........ j - .... ..... ... .......................... .. .... .. . 5.00 slg J | i__ STUDY BAS-E F)ORECAST 4.SR 4.00 tn 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.0 41986 C 1995 2005 1990 2000 2010 --- REQURE TREN TO ECH GRASS ROOTS CRACKING EXPANSION MARGIN BY 2010 USGC CRACKING REFINING HSTSTORCAL GROSS MARINS VOLAT LUY 150S .__ 140% 130% 110% 1 7 1 lox Z 40S _ <100% 0 !~~ 196118 98 99119 4 50% 40%e 30%re 1 1986 1 1987 1 1988 1 1989 1 1990 4 QUARTER MOVING AVERGE -41 - 6.19 A bMs USGC Soprduct adr&knca was developed in relation to the crude forecast by using the gro8s cracking refinery margin of $4.58 per barrel for BCF 17 crude combined with typical product yields and inter-product price relationships. A summary of the projected prices for main products for key forecast yeaus is provided as Table 6.3. The average of product prices over the forecast period was also compared with the price of the princ5pal regional marker crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI). These product to crude price relationships are illustrated in Table 6.4 TABLE 6.3: FORECAST OF USGC SPOT PRODUCT PRICES USS/BARREL (1990 CONSTANT PRICES) 1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 PROPANE 16.01 12.88 16.58 15.82 16.38 WUTANE 19.92 16.02 20.63 19.69 20.38 ULR NOGAS 31.43 25.28 32.56 31.0? 32.17 JET/KERO 31.63 25.44 32.77 31.26 32.37 N0.2 GASOIL 30.00 24.13 31.07 29.65 30.70 NDO 29.00 23.33 30.04 28.67 29.68 HSFO 15.60 12.55 16.16 15.42 15.96 TABLE 6.4: RELATIONSHIP OF AVERAGE OF FORECAST USGC SPOT PRODUCT PRICES TO WEST TEXAS INT. (WTI MARKIER CRUDE PRICE SABARREL PERCENTAGE OF CRUDE _.......... ........ WTI CRUDE 23.12 100X PROPANE 15.14 65X BUTAME 18.84 81X ULR NOGAS 29.73 1291 JET/KERO 29.92 129X NO. 2 GASOIL 28.37 1231 NDO 27.43 119X NSFO 14.75 64X 6.20 Veneela has traditionally supplied product "spikes" in whole crude grades, primarily to small simple referies in the Caribbean area which were design.ed by the multinationals as satellites to their large crude supply/refinig complexes in Venezuela. These spikes are semi-finished products added at the Venezuelan refinery to whole crude grades such as BCF 24. The Venezuelans price these products based on their opporunity values in alternate dispositions. Table 6.5 provides a summary of the forecast prices for spikes CIF Kingston. The basis for this forecast was established in discussions with LgWven officials. -43 - TABLE 6.5: FORECAST OF PRICES OF VENEZUELAN SPIKES US$/ BARREL (1990 CONStANt PRICES) 1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 WTANE 20.72 16.82 21.43 20.49 21.18 IWITPA 26.40 21.23 27.34 26.09 27.01 KEROSENE 32.63 26.4 33.77 32.26 33.37 ASOIL 29.00 23.13 30.07 28.65 29.70 6.21 'he base 1991 madn freighbrate asumptlons and assumptions on freight escalation over the forecast period, for delivery of crude to Kingston and/or product to and from Kingston are as follows: 1991 BASE (a) Venezuelan and Mexican crudes 170 percent Worldscale (WS) (b) Nigerian or Brent 150 percent WS (c) Arab light 55 percent WS to Caribbea plus transhipment cost (d) Orient from Ecuador US$1.40 per barrel. (e) Dirty product in the Caribbean 200 percent WS (i) Clean product in the Caribbean 250 percent WS ESCALATION (g) 3 percent real inctease per annum to the year 1997; no increase thereafter 6.22 The USGC Spot product prices combined with freight assumptions and minor quality adjustme to the current Jamaican standards were used to derive imprt pariqn pIfri each Jarnaican M1=. In all cases except gasoline it was assumed that the parity basis would be a USGC sourcng plus fireigt from-there. In the case of gasoline it was assmed that there would be major gasoline sourcing possiilites in the southern Caribbean (Venezuela), which on a full termin g operation would allow for the acqisition of medium range (MR) cargoes from there. On this basis the gasoline parity was esablished at USOC flat. 6.23 Expoft pai were derived using the same base USOC Spot and freight data. For most of the products, however, it was assumed that significant export markets would be found at locations outside the USGC, such as the southern US east coast. On this basis all clean products were aumed, on the average, to earn an export netback of USGC Spot less one-half the freight Kingston- USGC. In the case of RHO two export parity bases were defined: -44 - (a) Hydroskimming refinery case, straight-run fuel sold either In the USOC as cracker feed or to the local bauxite industry with a debit for heating value; Export parity equa to USOC HFO less one-half the Kingston-USGC freight. This also assumes that the cracker feed option is only available one-half of the time. (b) Cracking refinery case, low-API, high heat value fuel sold to the bauxite industry earning USOC HFO plus one-half the freight. 6.24 Because of the diminishing and uncertain nature of the San Jose Accord benefits (para 3.11) the pricing of crude and product imports for the study did not explicidy incorporate Accord benefit parameters. Ihe current level of Accord beneflt is, however, well within the limits of price sensitivity atayses performed around the Base Case. LP Model Configuration and Outputs 6.25 An esenta analytical tool in both the short-run scheduling of present-day refineries and In the longer-term facilities plannig function is the linear programming (LP) model of the particular refinery facility. In the case of Petrojam, their existng LP model was adapted and modified to suit the needs of this study. The principal modifications relted to the establisment of a capability for running consecutive multi-year runs, adaptation tO running on a personal computer, as well as orgnization of output reports for ease of inputting to the economic and financial cash flow analysis. No major modfications were made to the matrix equations and coefficients developed by Petrojam. 6.26 Three multi-year series of LP runs were performed with the objective of defining, for each forecast year, the refinery operating balances, crude imports, spike imports, product imports and product expor for the tbree reflning alternes I, II and m defined above. In the cracidng cases it was alo possible to examine the optimum FCC capacity for the series of runs. 6.27 The required inputs to each case were: (a) Procs unit capacity constants and marginal running costs of each unit. (b) Costs per barrel for refinery feedstocks - crude oils and spikes. (c) Costs per barrel for product imports. (d) Revenues per barrel for product exports. 6.28 The LP objective is set to select the combination of refiney feedstocks, product imports, refinery operations and product exports which results in the lowest net cost of supplying Jamaica domestic demad. A selection of six crudes and four product spikes in the Venezuelan crudes) were permitted as pott fedstocks in the modeling: -45 - CRUDES BCF 17 from Venezuela BCF 24 from Venezuela Istmu from Mexico Maya from Mexico Oriente from Ecuador Forcados from Nigetia SPKS (in the Venezuelan crudes) butane napbta kerosene gasowl 6.29 Although there was variation in the feedtoclk mix from run to run the preferred feedscks were generally BCF 24, BCF 17, Istms and Oriente. As discussed under Supply Agreements (pars 3.12-3.15) there was litte to choose among these grades when the full series of multi-year runs wer anayzed Including an eamination of shadow values. Maya, however, was US$0.70 to $1.00 per barrel less economic than these crdes, and Forcados some US$3.00 to $4.00 per barrel less attracdve. The but spike is always taen to maxim in all cases, since it is a very economic way to transport tis prduct which is always in deficit when produced from whole crude in the refinery. The naphtha and gsoil spikes are only attractive to the refimey as a hydroskimmer; when cracking i si_mulad these spikes disappear in most years. In the case of the keosene spike its high alterat pricing basis always cludes it as a feedsock. 6.30 The refinery udlization is relatvely low in the business-as usual case, ranging between 82 percent and 90 percent over the forecast period for the fill Jamaican demand on the renery, and betwen 50 peret and 87 percent, when half of the gasoline and jet fuel markes are assumed to be unvailable to the refinery. The LP chooses to import a significant amount of product In these cases, rather ta producing the product in the available topping capacity. In the cracking cases II and m, the LP dhooe to run the refinery at 100 peren capacity troughout, even in the reduced-local-demand cases. It es to completely i the refinery In all years by exporting the surplus. Cash Flow Modeling Reults - EIR and NPV 6.31 As indicated by the modeling information system flowsheet Figure 6.1, the yearly data on prices, Jamaica demands and the refinery LP outputs - crude/spke rus, product iports ad product exs are ingrated in a cash flow model. The model also link with the capital and opeatn costs fles whkh resulted from the egneeing aysis. Detaied d of thfis spreas model i provided a Annex 6.3. Ihe results of this cash flow analysis for the bae assumpions are provided in -46- Table 6.6. An LP analysis was not done for Case IV, the 100 KBD refinery on a new site with a major export component. Case IV was evaluated using product yields for BCF 24 developed as part of the process enginewring study. It was assumed that total sales from the facility would average 90 KBD over a 15 year period, 1996-2010; based on our domestic demand forecast, 37 KBD would be sold in Jamaica at import parity and the remaining 53 KBD at export parity. lhe prices are in accordance with the base forecast, and capital and operating costs as defined in the engiering analysis. 6.32 Each refining case was compared with the Base Case alternative of importing all products In a terminaling operation. The net present value of the difference in cash flows between the refining case and terminaing case was then discounted at 15 percent and the associated EIRR was computed. The 15 percet discount rate was used to reflect real mnimum returns required in the petroleum industry in view of the risks and unceainty. 6.33 As indicated, the incremental NPV of Case I (BAU) is positive at $34 million and the EIRR is greater than 100 prcent due to the low up-front capital investment in relation to later positive cash flows. In Case II, with balanced cat cracking at the same crude capacity, the NPV is $60 million and EIRR 27 prcent versus terminaling. With the much - increased investment of Case m, expanded crude and crking, the NPV is slightly higher at $71 million, while the ERR drops off slightly to 25 percent. The flani to slight decline in returns of Case m is due to the lower refining margins earned on eport business as compared to local demands. Loca product requirements average about 37 KBD over the project life so that the export component is an important element of this expanded, 50 KBD case. Case IV has the same component of domestic market, but with a total capacity of 100 KBD it is predominantly an export refining operation. The high investment of $737 million due to the expansion to another site and many wgrass-roots' facilities, combined with lower margins on the large export component, result in a negative NPV and an EIRR of only 4 percent with the base assumptions. TABLE 6.6: SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF REFINrNG CASES REFINING CASES CAPITAL MET PRESENT ECONOMIC RATIO OF Increwmtal to INVESMT USS VALUE US$ INTERNAL RATE NPV terminatIrg came Nillion Ifttfon 15X OF RETURN TO CAPITAL Jan 1991 Jan 1991 Percent I MXINESS AS USUAL 16 34 >100% 2.2 It BALANCED CRCING go CRUE 131 60 27 0.5 EXPANSION . III EXANDED CRDE AND MCKING TO 176 71 25 0.4 LINIT OF SITE IV EXPORT REFINEY EXPAE BEOND 737 297 4 NEGATIVE SITE -47 - 6.34 Table 6.7 present a fiurer evaluation of the refining Cases U and m incrmna to mase I (BAU), and Case m Incremeal to Cae 1. The base assumptions on prices, demands, capial and opatng costs sfill apply. As indicaed real returns of 20 pecent would be earned on the additiona Investments Inherent in the more complex, upgraded refining cases. TABLE 6.7: FURTHER ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF THE IWO CRAC1KNG CASES AT THE EXISTING SITE, CASES II AND m (Base Assuwpttons) INCREMENTAL TO CASE I INCREMENTAL TO CASE 11 REFINING CASES CAPITAL ElR CAPITAL IIRR ______ ___ MILLION PERCENT M_ KILLION PERCENT 11 SALAN 115 20 NA NA CRACKING __ _ _ _ __ ____ III EXPANDED 160 20 45 i CRUE AND CRACKING .. ____ Se"ltvty Anlysis 6.35 In addition to the results for the base assumptions, severa sensitivity alyses wer performed by varyin the input parmets. The four ases wer evaluated for the effect of a variation in product prices in elation to crude. This variation is expressed in terms of the change in dhe level of equivalent refinery margin in the USGC in reladon to the base margin assumed of US$ 4.58. Table 6.8 summrizes these sensitivities. As indicated, the NPV for Case I (BAU), drops to a slightly negative value at the lower maugin assumption, yielding a 13 percent EIRR. With balanced ccking, Case II, the reinery economics are more robust to a weaker margin. The NPV In this case is zero; in other words a 20 percent lower margin corresponds to a "switching value" for this case, the level at which the minimum EMR target of 15 percent is met. The return in Case m is also qute robus to a dedine In margin, showing a slighdy negative return and a 14 percent EIRR. The already- low b retr in Case IV would be negative in the low margin case. Ihe sensitivities to higher margins Illustae the upside poten fr the expansion/upgrading projects, with Cases II and m showing Els of 43 percent and 38 percent respectively. The EIRR for Case IV at 9 percent is stil well below the minimum target return. -48 - TABLE 6.8: SENSITIVlTY OF NPV AND EIUR TO VARIATION IN PRODUCT PRICE VS. CRUDE, EXPRESSED AS USGC REFINING MARGIN NET PRESENT VALUE INTERAL RATE OF RETUR USS NILLIONS 15X PERCENT CRANE BASE .20Z BASE | 20X +20X FROS BASE _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ __ _ __ _ NARGIN *IB 4.58 3.66 5.50 4.58 3.66 5.50 1 34 -2 70 = 100 13s 3 100Z it 60 0 l118 27 15 43 III 71 -4 1I4 25 14 38 IV -29 -409 1 185 4 NEG 9 6.36 Aother sensitivity analysis was performed to chek the reacion of refny economics to a loss of part of the Jamaica demad. It was assumed that, for example in a libelized market, the refiaery may lose 50% of tihe local gasoline and 50% of the jet fuel market to direct product importers. This repmens a loss of some 18 percent in total local market volume and 23 percent of total local market revenues. This assumption was input to the LP, for Cases I and II only, and the resultant new refinery balances were input to the cash flow model. Table 6.9 provides a summary of these sensitivities to local demand on the refinery. As indicated, the minimum refining Case I (BAU) would still be viable versu terminaling, and the crackdng Case I would only show a modest decline in NPV and EIIR from the base. The reason that the refinery is reasonably robust to a loss in local market is the opportunity it has to minimize the loss through exporing, albeit at lower reur than on the domestic market. Although ot shown in this table, an examination of the LP solutions and cash flows for each refinery case indicate that the upgraded refinery, H, is actually more stable in the face of a loss of local market, than the BAU Case I. This is due to the fact that the upgraded refinery has opportunities to make money on the export of ligh products and the refinery is kept fill. In the BAU case the lowest-cost solution is to reduce crude rnning, and even retain some net imports of finished product. -49 - TABLE 6.9: SENSITIVITY OF PROJECT NPV AND IRR TO LOSS IN LOCAL DEMAND ON THE REFINERY NET PRESENT VALUE INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN USS NILLION 9 15X PERCENT JAMAICA DENAND ON REFINERY BASE VOGAS AND JET BASE NOGAS AND JET __________________ __________ -50% EACH -SO_ EACH I> 34 25 361007 I 60 1 43 27 23 6.37 Additional sensitivities to changes in project capital and opating csts were performed on the cash flows for all four refining cases. These results are summarized in tables 6.10 and 6.11, respectively. TABLE 6.10: SENSITIVITY OF PROJECT NPV AND EIRR TO VARIATIONS IN CAPITAL COSTS MET PRESENT VALUE INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN ____ _______ USS NILLION a 15% PERCENT BASE +20% -20% BASE +20X -20% CAPITAL CAPITAL CAPITAL CAPITAL CAPITAL CAPITAL ____________ ____________ COST COST COST COST 1 34 30 38 )21001 >100X% >100 it 60 41 78 27 22 34 III 71 47 95 25 21 32 IV -297 -410 -184 4 _ 2 7 TABLE 6.11: SENSITIVlTY OF PROJECT NPV AND EIRR TO VARIATIONS IN PLANT OPERATING COSIS NET PRESENT VALUE INTERNAL RATE Of RETURN USS MILLION a 15X PERCENT BASE OP COST +20% O&M -20% O&8 | BASE OP +20% 08M -20% 04N 1 34 24 44 >100X 2 100 2 8100% U 60 42 76 27 23 32 III 71 54 87 25 22 29 IV -297 '330 -264 4 3 6 .so Export Oriented Options ajrms-Roots lMin=r 6.38 The case for constructing a grass-roots renery of 100,000 barrels per day to sell Into the regional export market was examined as part of this study. Annex 6.4, "Feasobility of Jamaica Grass Roots Refinery," documents the aumptions, results and conclusions of this side study. It was concluded that sufficient capacity exists, could be upgraded or could be added to existing refineries in the region at lower costhtngrass-roots construction, rendering such a new facility uneconomic in the medium term. Jamaica would offer w logistical advantage since it is neither close to. crude source or to product markets. Other locations such as the Bahamas appear more attractive from an independent refiner's point of view. As with previous refinery cases this case is based on the economics of an independent refiner purchasing crude and selling products under arms-length arrgements. Vertical integration providing direct access to crude or markets may well change the economics but in that case Jamaica would merely be leasing the site. 6.39 This conclusion is substantiated by an exrapolation from the process engineering and attendant edmates on Case IV of the least-cost study ummarized above. Based on this conceptu defnition and estmat, it is projected that a 100,000 barrel per day refinery of similar conversion capability, but on a completely new site would cost some US$ 1000 million (1991). Its complete export market dependency would result in lower average gross margins than Case IV since it was assumed in ftis case that all the domestic market would be served by the expanded Kingston facility, some 37 kBD on average over the project life. On the basis of this level of capital investment and crude/product price rlaionships inherent in the main study the NPV and EtIRR of such a project would be considerably lower hn Case IV. i.e. negative. Lmnen Terminal 6.40 In June 1990, Arthur D. Little (ADL) did an analysis (ret "Jamaican Transhipment Termnal A Proposal" June, 1990) for PCJ of the feasibiity of constructing a crude oil transhipment terminal on the south coast of Jamaica. Theproposed site is owned by PCJ and was selected for a major export refiney, a study of which was also done by ADL in 1974. 6.41 An analysis of this transhipment propos indicates ta it is a high risk project with low to maginl res. ADL esdmates a gross US$.0.18 per barrel advantage to traoshipment against litering for USOC crude supply. This assumes Nigerian 'short-hul' crude lightered in the USGC as the alternative. TranIipment is usally most viable when applied to "long-haul" crudes such as those sourced in the Arab Gulf, destined for the USOC. 6.42 Ti scale of margin can be diminished or completely overridden by other factors such as environmenta costs, includig the required contribution to a spill clean-up fimd; such a margin is -51 - unlikdy to attract many shippers who would prefer to retain preset arrangement for reasons of strategic contol, reliability and confiden in a lmown situation. 6.43 ADL also defined an wenvironmentalw sensitivity case where they assumed that lighteng wfll not be viable or will be physically restricted from inshore USGC waters for reasons of environmental costs and riks. Tbe gross margin between this terminal and the lightering aternative was $0.50 per barrel in this case. Te differetial between $0.18 in the base case and $0.50 per barrd In the enronmental cas largdy reflects real environmental costs and risk factors. If such costs and risks ultimately impact Jamaica, then this differentia will be eliminated. It will only exist in the shortterm undl Jamaica tightens its environment standards to USGC levels. 6.44 Even with eavironmental costs fully reflected, there may be one or more private operators who would be atrcted to such a site. It is impossible to estmate all the logistical situations and opportunities specific to individual intenational oil operators. With appropriate controls and standards in place and strictly enforced, the site could be made available to private sector development. This could bedoneunder long-term lease, which might incorporate someupsideprofitsharing arrangements. Under no cicu ces, however, should the government Invest In such a termin opeaion or otherwise absorb any of the risk. Such investment and proposed operation should be subject to the most careful sutiny, including risk assessment, with regard to preservation of the environment. Among other thing thert is potentW for damage to the tourism industry. This could occur through adverse publicity even witaout major ecological impacts. VII FINANCIAL EVALUATION 7.1 Based on the economic screening analysis of petroleum product supply options, two refining cases - I, Business as Usual, and I, Upgraded Refinery with Balanced Catalytic Cracking - were subjected to detailed financial evaluation. In addition, the foreign exchange impact of a full product importatlon/tmnaing cae was compared with that of the refining cases. One of the objectives of the ficial evaluation is to xamine the net foreign exchange product supply cost to Jamaica under different assmp as to: (a) ownership stuctur (100 percet GOJ or minority GOJ with private foreign investment). (b) regulatory environments re: petroleum product trade and pricing. (c) mechanisms for financing required expansion and upgrading of investments. 7.2 An equally Inortant objecdive of this evaluation is to make a preliminary asssment as to the range of tem and conditions that would be auractive to a privat participant in the refinery, while stil adhering to the target of minimizing net supply cost to Jamaica. - 52 - 7.3 A third, and possibly most important, objective of this modeling work is to develop a flexible analytical tool that may be used both to assist in the development of a standardized request for proposals (prospectus) for investment/participation in the refinery, as well as in the analysis by the government of any resultant offers. Methodology 7.4 Tho following presents the methodology of &e financial evaluation of the cases: (a) The product demands on the refinery, product imports by marketing companies, product and crude prices and the refinery LP solutions with refinery crude and spike import volumes, product imports and product exports all by year for the fill 20-year project life, as well as capital and operating costs for each case, were imported as linkages into a fincial spreadsheet model. (b) A total of five product supply volumetric configurations were considered in the analysis: all product imports/tetminsling; refining for full Jamaica demands, Case I, Business-as-Usual; refining for full Jamaica demands, Case U, balanced catalytic cracing; - refining Case I, to meet a portion of Jamaican demands, with marketers importing remainder; - refining Case II, to meet a portion of Jamaican demands, with marketers importing remainder. (c) The linkages from the economic cash flow modeling and refinery LP analysis as indicated above, for each case were integrated with financial/taxation assumptions, as developed by the local Jamaican consultant, to formulate the financial spreadsheet model. These data linkages as well as the financial consultants' data inputs are illustrated in a flowsheet, Figure 7.1. More complete model documentation is provided in Annex 7.1, with accompanying model output runs. (d) The financl consultant incorporated model structures and data on depreciation, financing structure, tax-related allowances, income tax rate, dividend distribution, receivables, Inventories, net assets in service, payables, interest on debt, ownership struture and generated sepaate year-by-year model output components for the 20 year project period on: refinery income statement refinery balance sheet; refinery sources and applications of fumds; -53 - Bank of Jamaica, margina cash flow analysis of net foreign exchange flows; priveate marketing companies, marginal cash flow anaysis; Ministry of Finance, marginal casb flow analysis of fiscal flows; offshore partner In refinery, margnl cash flow anaysis. Case Selection 7.5 As indicated above, as a result of the economic screeing sudy, two refinery configurations were sdected for fnacia evaluation, cas I busies as usual, and nI balanced ccking. 'ne fil terminaling case was also examined. Each of these refinery variations were examined at two diferent ery gate price structures "full", reflecting the present structure,with all differentials uncapd and, !reduced" with the reductions in differentials as refleced in the ex-refiny pricing anysis par 4.34.11. The reduced pricing cases were lso examined at lower denxds on the refinery, reflecti the lows of 50 percent of gasoline and 50 percent of jet fuel demands to direct importers. This latter set of case i ntended to simulate a 'worst case effect on the refinery financial picture, of a liberalized petroleum products sector. In addition to these variations, the base set of runs incorporated permuttins in ownership stucture. Becase of the enormous mmber of permutations and combinatons of possible case variations, the initial approach was to mun a limited number of cases and examine the resul summarized in matix form. Table 7.1 summarzes the Idenification and definition of this base set of rwu. After eamination of this selected matrix, a few more specific cases were run as sensitivities. * 54 - FIGURE 7.1: JAMACA ESSP STUDY - SCHEMAIC OF PETROLEUM SECTOR FINANCLAL MODELING SYSTEM, INCLUDING LINKAGES WTEH ECONOMIC MODELS REFPLAN.WL1 DENAO.WK1 1HISTORICAL Terminal, Refinery Jamaica Product FINANCIAL Cash Flow Model Demand Forecast Share DATA PETROJAX LINK OWNERSHIP & CAPITAL STRUCTJRE FINREFl.WXl FINRXF2.WX1 lPinancial Model for Financial Model £o Refinery Configuration I Refinery Config. I OUTPUTS EACH CASE Petrojam Statements Income Balance Sheet Sources: Applications Bank of Jamaica - FOREX. Ministry of Finance - FISCAL Foreign Partner Cash Flow Marketing Companies marginal CF -55 - TABLE 7.1: BASE FINANCIAL EVAWATION CASES - IDlENTIFCATION AND DEIiTION CASE ID. REFINERY DENAND ON REFINERY EX*REFINERY PRICES PRIVATE FOREIGN FACILITIES OWNERSHIPE 1.0 BAU FULL FULL 0 2.0 CRACKING FULL FULL 0 1.1 SAU FULL FULL 50 2.1 CRACKING FULL FULL 50 1.2 8AU FULL REDUCED 50 2.2 CRACKING FULL REDUCED 50 1.3 BAU REDUCED REDUCED so 2.3 CRACKING REDUCED REDUCED S0 0.2 NA/TERNINAL ZERO REDUCED NA 1.0.3 BAU REDUCED REDUCED 0 2.0.3 CRACKING REDUCED REDUCED 0 inanial Evaluation Results 7.6 The key parameters that were summaized for each of the cases in the above matrix were: (1) present value of refinery net profit, (2) present value of total dividends, (3) prest value of net foreign exchange flows - capital, expenses, equity, debt service, dividends, (4) per barrel forex (foreign exchange) cost of the total composite product demand for Jamaica mix over the 20 year period, determined as PV cost divided by qantity (5) present value of Ministry of Finance fiscal flows, (6) present value of forex investent (it is assumed that the offshore prtner contributes the forex portion of the refiery investment; no debt fincing has inity been assumed, nor has a valuation been placed on shares in the existing refinery. (7) present value of foreign parner net cash flow; (8) payback period of discounted NCF to the foreign partner based on 80 percet dividend payout; (9) present value of the marginal cash flow of marketing companies in applicable cass. The results are summarized in Table 7.2. -56- TABLE 7.2: RESULTS OF BASE FINANCIAL EVALUATION CASES (1) (2) (3) (4) (S) (6) (7) (8) (9) CAS V IEF PVREF PV FOr POREX P YNOF PV FOREIGN PV NCF DISCOUNTED PV NCF ID# PROFIT DiV USREI COST FISCAL PARTNER FOEION PAYBACK NKT COS US$lo U#MMo USS/3 USSM10 EQUITY PARTNER PERIOD Usblo CONITRIB EQUITY FOREIGN USSMlo USSM* PARTNER EQUITY ____________ ~~YEARS 1.0 211 152 -2080 22.87 250 VA VA VA MA 2.0 291 216 -1999 21.98 326 MA MA MA NA 1.1 214 155 -2148 23.63 177 9 69 0.2 NA 2.1 319 -2038 22.41 243 76 43 6.9 NA 1.2 146 106 -2124 23.36 118 9 44 0.8 NA 2.2 251 189 -2013 22.14 185 76 19 10.3 NA 1.3 131 9 -2130 23.42 107 9 39 1.0 4 2.3 229 173 -2026 22.28 167 76 II 12.6 4 0.2 NA NA -2198 24.17 11 NA NA NA 21 1.0.3 127 92 -2091 23.00 1S0 NA NA NA 4 2.0.3 201 151 .2020 22.22 218 MA MA NA 4 7.7 Seve conclusions can be drawn from this set of cases: (a) Even if it assumed in the highest-ct refining cases, whrein the reiney loses a major pordon of the market to direct Imports, as in cases 1.03 and 2.03 (100 percent GOJ- owned) or 1.3 and 2.3 (50 percent offshore, 50 percent GO), the net forex cost per barrd of toa Jamaica demand Is lower for refing hn for 100 percent termning, case 0.2. Ihe comparison is as shown In Table 7.3, using the case defintions for clarity of compaison. - 57- TABLE 7.3: COMPARISON OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE COST FOR REFINING VS. Terminaling - BASE ASSUMPTIONS CASE REFINERY DEMAND ON EX-REFINERY PRIVATE FOREIGN FOREX COST DISCOUNTED ID# FACILtItES REFINERY PRICES OWNERSHIP X OF JAMAICA PAYBACK DENAND US$/1 PERIOD FOREIGN PARTNER EQUITY _______________ _______ _______ ______________ YEARS 1.3 BAUL REDUCED REDUCED S0 23.42 1.0 2.3 CRACKING REDUCED REDUCED S0 22.28 12.6 0.2 TERMINAL ZERO REDUCED NA 24.17 MA 1.0.3 BAU REDUCED REDUCED 0 23.00 NA 2.0.3 CRACKING REDUCED REDUCED 0 22.22 MA (b) A comparison of the two facilities' variations for the refiing cases indicates that for the same ownership assumption, the cracking case is clearly the lowest-cost to the country. From the fimancial point-of-view, however, this conclusion may not be valid until the ownership vs. equity contribution is examined in cases 1.3 and 2.3. If the payback period$ for each of these cases is examined, it is seen that based on the offshore partner etting his ownership share through equity contributon of the entire foreign exchange portion of the required investment, the government would be justified in negotiating a higher valuation of shares in the existing refinery in return for 50 percent ownership in the BAU case, with a payback of 1 year. In the cracking case, other combinations of higher share ownership by the foreign partner and/or debt financing replacing part of his equity would have to be considered to increase the foreign partner's ratio of dividend flow to equity contribution and reduce the payback period of 12.6 years. If it were decided to carry on with the BAU case it would be better for Jamaica that the government finance the US$9 million itself, corresponding to case 1.03 since the average cost per barrel would be reduced from US$ 23.42 per barrel to US$ 23.00 per barrel. (c) In the cracking case 2.3, it was decided to run an additional ase, labelled 2.3.1, with a higher ownership share of 75 percent given to the offshore partner in turn for the same equity contnbution. This results in a payback period of 6.2 years on his investment and a net present value of US$ 54 million which is not unreasonable, while the foreig exchange cost to Jamaica increases from US$22.28 to US$22.76 per barrel of product. This cost is still much lower than that of the terminaling case, but it is approaching the cost of the BAU case 1.0.3, with 100 percent GOJ control. From this it is concluded that S. ThdJ_uutp.backper$odis deidas the mher fyearireqWredj*r the NPVto reach zero at a12% d2 coX w rate. -58 - in order to attract an offshore partner to participate through contribution of the cat cracker foreign exchange, an ownership in the 75 percent range would have to be relinquished. Although this would result in the foreign exchange cost to Jamaica approaching that of the BAU case in 100 percent GOJ hands, both the economic and financial analysis indicate that the cracking refinery would be a more robust and flexible facility in an uncertain world. (d) Although the 100 percent GOJ - owned refinery with cracking, case 2.0.3, appears to be the best from a leat-cost supply standpoint at US$ 22.22 per barrel, It may not be desirable from a financing standpoint. The required refinery borrowing would result in a maximum debt/equity ratio for Petrojam of 68 percent. If held as public sector debt, this structure would run counter to government objectives for privatization. Sensitivit Analyse 7.8 In the economic analysis, the base study assumption for the product/crude price relationship is expressed in terms of equivalent gross refinery cracking margin in the USOC, i.e. US$ 4.58 per barrel for BCF 17 crude. Sensitivity analyses were performed to lower and higher average margis which might prevail over the life of the project. In this financial analysis the effect of a lower long-term average margin was also evaluated for its effect on cases 1.0.3 and 2.3.1 as defined above. In addition the short-term fluctuations or 'volatUity" of the margin was tested for its effect on the cash situation and general financial viability of the project. As a worst case it was assumed that the margin is 60 percent of its long term average base value during the first two operating/revenue-earning years of the project, rebounding to 140 percent for two years, and then a steady 100 percent. This four year cycle parallels the historical pattern as illustrated in Figure 6.5. The lower product prices inherent in the low margin sensitiity cases also results in lower prices to the terminal case. The effet on the forex cost of product supply for this case was evaluated. 7.9 Table 7.4 comprises a master summary of a limited selection of the most logical cases to be considered. As indicated, the cracking case with foreign participation of 75 percent, in turn for the equity contribution of the project foreign exchange, (case 2.3.1), provides a reasonable cash flow and payback to the foreign partner in the base refinery margin case. If it is assumed that the margin is 20 percent lower than the bae over the life of the project (US$ 3.66 per barrel) then the payback period is somewhat long at 7.4 years, and more equity may have to be relinquished; the effect of an 85 percent share Is shown, reducing payback to 6.7 years. The foreign exchange cost of Jamaica's total product supply is US$ 22.37 per barrel in this case. This compares with US$ 22.41 per barrel in the business-a- usual case and US$ 23.17 per barrel in the full terninaling case. -59 - 7.10 These casss considered equity financing, by the foreign partner, of the entire forex portion of the catytic cracking investment. Another variation of case 2.3.1 which was examined in which the foreign partner would contribute 50 percent of the project foreign exchange, while still retaining a 75 percent ownership, and Petrojam would borrow the other 50 percent. The equity partner would be asked to secre non-recourse financing for this project loan. This debt/equity structure would result in the foreign partner realizing a 4-year discounted payback on his equity Investment in the expanded facilities and an average annual 37 percent return on his equity. The leverage effect of partial debt finaning would give the government room to negotiate the valuation of, and attendant sale price of, participation in the existing refinery. Additional financial evaluation cases could be run to test the range of reasonable possibilities with combinations of Petrojan debt and foreign equity financing. The bases for these case runs would be more readily defined in the process of reviewing and analyzing actual proposals. TABLE 7.4: COMPARISON OF REFINING CONFIGURATIONS AND REFINING VS. Terminaing FOR BASE AND LOW USGC REFINING MARGINS CASE RtEFINERY DEMAND ON EX-REFINERY PRIVATE PV REF FOREX PY NCF DISCOlT lot FACIl. REFINERY PRICES FOREIGN PROFIT COST TO FOREIGN ED OWN % USmio JAMAICA PARTNER PAYBACK US$/B USWlo PERIOD FOREIGN PARTNER - __ __ f_ ___ ___ ____._ YEARS 2.3.1 CRACKING REDUCED REDUCED 75 229 22.76 54 6.2 EAwe 11- - - - - 2.3.1 CRACKING REDUCED REDUCED 75 184 22.22 36 7.4 LOW NARG . 2.3.2 CRAKING REDUCED REDUCED 85 184 22.37 43 6.7 LOW MA R __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ __ _ __ _ 1.0.3 DUM REDUCED REDUCED 0 127 23.00 VA NA BASE 1.0.3 BAU REDUCED REDUCED 0 103 22.41 MA NA LOW I 0.2 TERNINAL ZERO REDUCED NA MA 24.17 NA MA BASE -e - 0.2 LW TERMINAL ZERO REDUCED MA MA 23.17 MA NA N A SM_ __ _ _ _ - 60 - 7.11 Comparing the foreign exchange costs for the low margin cases, it is seen that the cracking configuraion with foreign participation at US$ 22.37 per barrel is still marginally better than the 100 percent GOJ, business-as-usual case at US$ 22.41 per barrel although the difference has narrowed. This narrowing is due to the much higher product and spike imports in the BAU case which become cheape with lower refining margin. Both refining cases are significantly better than the terminaing case at US$ 23.17 per barrel. 7.12 The reaction of each case to the margin volatility was not significant. Net profit remains positive in the two low margin years, declining from 37 to 23 US$million per year in the cracking case and from 15 to 9 US$million per year in the business-as-usual case. Cash in the bank remained well on the positive side throughout the period in both cases. 7.13 A more detailed examination of net foreign exchange and MOF fiscal flow was performed. Four cases were used for comparison purposes, three of which, 1.0.3, 2.0.3 and 2.3.1 were identified and analyzed above. In order to complete the comparison a fourth case, 1.3.1, was defined an analyzed. This is an extension of Business as usual case 1.3, increasing the foreign ownership to 75 percent. All four of these cases have the full detailed financial spreadsheet included in Annex 7. Table 7.5 summarizes the results for each case. Although these cases are provided to illustrate the full range of function of the model, it should be pointed out that none are proposed as basis for divestment. Case 1.3.1, for example, as an extension of 1.3 from 50 percent to 75 percent ownership, indicates that the government could be justified in negotiating an even higher valuation of shares in the existing refinery, since payback is less than a year, based en the project capital investment as equr' y contribution. TABLE 7.5 CASE REFINERY PRIVATE PV OF FOREX FOREX COST PV OF NOF DISCOUNTED ID# FACILITY FOREIGN COST USS/BARREL FISCAL PAYBACK FOREIGN OWNERSHIP USS MILLIONS USS MILLIONS PARTNER ______ _____ _____ _____ ____ ______ ____ _____ ___ _ _____ _____Y EA R S 1.0.3 _ AU 0 2091 23.00 150 MA 1.3.1 AN 75 2153 23.68 83 0.4 2.0.3 CRACKING 0 2020 22.22 218 na 2.3.1 CRACKING 75 2070 22.76 124 6.2 MlgM: All cases assume the Base refinery margin reduced dbmnd on the refinery and reduced reffnery gate prices. MOF - Ministry of Finance. Fiscal recepts are in local currency expressed fn USS equivalent. Annex 4.1 EVALUATION OF EX-REFINERY PETROLEUM PRODUCT PRICE STRUCTURE - JAMAICA IMPORT PARITY EX THE USGC FOR FINISHED PRODUCTS ',atIcu aEPEntcE INPORNTIOM 5 UX SW 6 VAN US cm9 RMCET FO, MP* Wu t. U ? tAASDORTATION 7 .-.-- RlP U P NIOI up AVG 8/WI laX org * LK MIX 11.36 OMU 9 PROPH 45.30 45.50 45.35 0 CLEA *12.5 LT 1 WTA 64.50 65.0 6.75 on DIRTY *.15 ILT 11 PREUL 80.75 81.30 81.13 Ut6 54.53 *T 12 fXAS " 9 0.25 80.75 80.50 860 APAT 03.0 WMT I3s 0 KM 94.7s 95.25 9.00 7.94 14 MI CIL 89.75 90.00 89.8 7.5 85% 15 AIlR C 19.00 19.50 19.25 6.ST 15% MRIGT UVAUWTIO W RATE 16 *mP 20.91 23.6 23.27 5.50 WS POINTS WS FAT RtATE RTI 17 n0 7.40 250 13.0 St75 0.6 14 200 3.0 $6.20 0.8t 19 20 21 32 23 CURET STCTUR, UStL PRNI *0 m NFO TAL 24 *............ ... - NOVAS 0 OTHER ASPHALT LPG as 26 EFERENCE PRtICE. U8SOC W.81 W9."0 *37.75 *34.97 519.25 s*.2zT *2S. V7 ACUSION OIFErETIAI $1.36 sO.7t 80.74 $1.0 *0.81 *0.65 $1.76 28 PREINHT 51.42 11.54 1.42 11.66 $1.0 *.72 *4.40 29 IEURIACs *0l03 *0.03 *0.0o 50.03 *0.01 O.Z *0.02 0 Oam Lolt *0.18 *0.21 80.16 80.15 50.05 *0.8 80.16 51 TUMN M S.O. 0.95 SO." 10.9 $1.03 SO." 804.9 32 I fiE PICE w.75 s.36 *1.2 539.25 *2.24 s3.65 132.8 a RII *0.30 *0.30 60.49 *0.00 S0.OC *0.00 *0.00 S RAK FEE I'm0.17 0.1? $0.17 80.00 S0.00 10.35 $0.35 3 P"RICEi *38.22 43.83 *1.90 939.2S 52.24 *M5.90 S*.0 57 9 PROPOSED ADUMNTS 40$ANt QULITtn, M URL 41 *...n......- .............. 42 43 CREDIT .11) (0.11) (*0.11) *0.11) (80.06) (*.S08) (*0.00) 44 S2E *b0.25) (*0.32) 0.33) (*0.A) $0.40 (80.50) S0.00 45 ARINE IN$ ($0.01) (*0.01) (*0.01) (*0.01) (*0.01) (00.01) (*0.01 46 MINT (*0.52) (80.57) (*0.59) *0.83) (*0.14) *0.00 *0.00 4? a"R (80.30) (*0.30) (*O.49) *0.00 s0.0 W0.00 0.00 (8 RVCl AT 25% (80.13) (*0.13) (80.13) 80.00 10.00 ($0.26) (*0.26) 49 L6C ($0.04) (50.04) (*0004) (*0.04) 0.00 $0.00 *0.13) S0 RMINAL PEt 10.07 *0.0? *0.07 80.07 (*0.01) *0.07 80.07 51 52 NET CWA0IS, SAME ALTIES (*1.71) ($1.41) (Sf.42) ($1.54) (*0.23) (*0.79) (*0.41) 3 MlIUTY ADJUSTMT (S1.00) *0.30) (*0.31) *0.75) (*0.75) *0.00 50.00 54 PA APUSTMN ($2.71) ($1.71) (S1."9) (*3.2) (*.") (0.79) (50.41) 56 MLs M DAY 535 3500 o 2 9986 309 721 W402 90 NIN REWUCTIOIN 01 116 *3.U -1.80 -t.o -0.469 *0.82 .0.09 *0.11 -8- 59 WAX RUTIO 11M -S.20 -2.19 -2.41 .1.0 -3.$5 -0.09 -0.11 '14.65 60 OIFPAREHAL MAX-WIN -1.92 *0.38 -0.40 *0.34 -2.3 0.00 0.00 o5.77 61 62 63 iMs Petroiui for renwt3 infwo ti; n dte for this prioe strwtw mrns 64 PCQvid but the patomn u trni of UUM rtferee prie irdicote te hth price period tn Juuy 199 w fott of199. A-1 Poleum AmnnrA2 Page I of 3 Peoja Rdhiry Operatn Performance 1966-87 1987118 19-9 1989-90 1990-91 S EAR AVEAG * PO SNARtE M "M SNR P S SuSnARE tpD SaRE S S8ARI Of TOt Of T w t OF TOT Of Ot OF TOT SUPPLY SPPLY SPLY SPLY SUPPLY SWPLY cIRE VnA, WC 1S,642 13,4S4 14," 17,502 20,415 16,36 AS RAMT CAPACITY 44 41 49 u 46 3S,500 Lm REFINERY PRODUCTION P tn 50 13SM a8 6.8X 38 14.52 106 36.9X 141 61.8 73 24.82 utan 6 8.7X 142 16.U2 151 16.2X 207 19.2X 241 21.0X 12 16.8X NOWas 2,108 4S.22 2,131 47.6X 2,275 48.91 2,686 50.92 3,026 56.32 2,S 50.02 turbo 1,854 71.02 240 7.9% 149 5.12 45T 16.12 2,116 6S.6X 964 33.02 Kerosenw (56) -3.9X 1,021 100.0 1,178 100.02 1,306 1OO.O0 492 100.02 78 72.22 ADO 1,916 58.1X 1,682 52.7X 1,432 31.02 2,09 35.32 2,607 43.12 1,946 42.22 SmO 7" 99.2X 972 100.02 1.261 100.02 1,139 100.02 1,190 100.0 1,061 .9% NFO 7,791 61.42 6,267 59.42 7.177 65.6X 8,395 73.52 9,563 77.S 7.839 67.6 Asphalt 93 36.4 229 64.92 231 56.7% 256 100.02 160 100.02 194 67.72 . ... ........0. ..* ....*..... I..... ... . TOTAL 14,56 54.22 12,712 51.3X 13,892 51.12 16,647 56.42 19,538 6C.?X 15,471 55.82 PRODUCT IMPORTS Propan 319 86.5 288 91.22 225 8S.52 160 43.12 87 38.2X 220 75.22 utan 703 91.3 735 83.8% 781 83.8 87W0 80.82 910 79.0X 800 63.2X NoWs 2,SS4 54.82 2,345 52.42 2,377 51.12 2,587 49.12 2,352 43.72 2,443 50.0X TuVo 756 29.02 2,781 92.12 2.743 94.9X 2,380 83.9X 1,111 34.4X 1,9S8 67.02 Kerosne 1.513 103.9X 0 0.02 0 0.02 0 0.02 0 0.02 303 27.8X ADO 1,381 41.9X 1,512 473 3,187 69.02 3,833 64.7 3,43S 56.92 2,670 57.82 50O 6 0.82 0 0.02 00.02 000% 00.02x 10.12 NFO 4.894 38.68% 4,22 40.6 3,758 34.42 3,028 26.52 2,779 22.52 3,750 32.4% Asphlt 163 63.6% 124 35.12 176 43.32 0 0.02 0 0.02 93 32.3X ,........... ...... ........... ..... ... . .. ...... ........... ..... ........ ...... ........... ..... ............... ....... .............. TOTAL 12,M 45.82 12,077 48.72 13,268 48.92 12,879 43.6 10,674 35.3% 12,238 44.22 TAL PRODUCT SUPPLIED Propne 369 316 263 286 228 292 uane 771 877 932 1,07T 1,151 962 Hog.. 4,662 4,47? 4,653 Sn24 5,378 4,889 Turbo 2,610 3,021 2,912 2,838 3,229 2,922 Kerosn 1,459 1,021 1,178 1 306 492 1,091 ADO 3,297 3.194 4,619 S,928 6,042 4,616 SDO 751 972 1,261 1,139 1,190 1,062 0fO 12,685 10,538 10,935 11,423 12,341 11,589 Aspalt 256 353 408 256 160 287 * ***~~...... ..... ....... ........... 26,857 24,789 2,716 29,526 30.211 2n709 A-3 Potoldum Annex 4.2 Page 2 of 3 Tob. A4.2 RECORD OF PETROJAM REFINERY OUTAGES 1980900 YEAR NYN DURATION REASON 1986 JAN 4 RUNOUT 1986 FsE I PoR 1986 NAR 12 UNPLANNED 196 MAY 62 PLANUD 196 AUG 1 POE 1986 SEP 1 POUR 19E6 DEC 12 PLAND 19S? JAN S PLANED 198? JAN 10 UNPLANNED 198? FME 9 UNPLANNED 19? FEB 1 UNPLANIED 198 NM I UNPLANNED 198? AP 10 UNPLANNED 198? aJU 18 PLANNED 198? OCT 79 PLALMED 19t? DEC 2 UNPLANNED 198 NAY 48 RUNOUT 1988 AUG 1 POUER 1988 SEP 6 UNPLANNED 1980 NOV 14 UNPLANNED 19 DEC 13 PLANNED 199 JAN 1 UNPLANNED 198 A 1 PLANNED 1"9 E I POWER 1989 NM I UNPLANNE 1"9 NM 1 POER 1989 APR I UNPLAN 1989 NAY I PNME 1989 NAY 16 PLAED 19 OCT 24 PLANED 199 JAI 4 RUNOUT 1990 APR 1 UNPLANNED 1990 JUN 32 PLANNED 199 OCT 7 RUNOU 1990 NOV 3 RUNOUT 1990 IOV 4 RUMOUT 1990 NOV 1 Pam OAL UMER OF OUTAGES 5 YEARS 3? TAL IURATION OF OUTAUGS 5 YEAtS 409 DAYS AVRA NUMBER OF OUTAGES PER YEAR 7.4 AVERAE OD TION PER OUTAGE 11.1 DAs AvEA OUTAGE TINE PER YEAR 81.0 DAYS AVEE SERVICE FACTOR 77.62 RUUWI YER NONTH DUAION REAS PLANU 1986 NAY 62 PLANNED 1986 DEC 12 PLANNED 198? J 5 PLAND 19 JUNP 18 PLANNED 198? OCT 79 PANNED 1986 DEC 13 PLAN 1969 NAY 16 PLAND 1989 OCT 24 PLANE 1990 JUN 32 PLAUIID TOTAL NlE OF QUTAE S YA 9 TAL DUATION OF OUTAGES 5 YEA 261 DAYS AVEA KIM OF OUTAGES M YW 1.8 AVEA fATION P OUTAG 29 DAY AVERAGE OUTAGE TI PE YM E 52.2 DAY A-4 I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~AnexA4.2 Petroleum Page 3 of 3 REASOM YE MON UTION RUON UNPLANNED 196I IAR 12 UNPULANED 196? JAN 10 UNPLANNED 19"7 F 9 ULANNED 190r FEB 1 UNPLANNED 19"? MAR 1 UNPLANNED 196 APR 10 UNPLANNED 1967 DEC 2 UNPLANNED 1966 SEP 6 UNPLANN 19J8 NOV 14 UNPLANNED 1969 JAN 1 UNPLANND 1969 JAI 1 UPWLANNED 1969 HAN I UNPLANNED 1969 APR 1 UNPLANNED 1990 APR 1 UNPLANNED TOTALN UER OF OTAGES S YRS 14 TOTAL DURION OF UTAGES 5 YARS 70 DAYS AVRE NUR Of UTAGES M YEAR 2.8 AVERAGE DURATION PER OUTAGE 5 DAYS AVERAGE OUTAGE TINE PER YEAR 14 DAYS REASON YEAR MONTH DURATION REASON PamER 1986 FEB 1 PO1ER 1986 AUG 1 POSER 1986 SEP 1 POWlER 1966 AUG 1 PoR 199 FEe I POWER 1969 MA I POWER 1969 Y POamER 1990 NOV 1 POSER TOAL NUMBER OF OUTAGES 5 YEAtRS a TOTAL WURATION OF OUTAGES 5 YRS 8 DAYS AVERAGE NUMR OF UTAGES PER YEAR 1.6 AVEA DURION PER OJTAGE I DAY AVERUAG OUTAGE TINE PR YEAR 1.6 DAYS REASON YAR I DURTION RENA RUNOUT 19 JAI 4 RUNOUT 1988 NAY. 48 RU 1990 JAN 4RUOU 1990 OCT 7 RtUOUT 190 NOV 3 RUNOUT 1990 NOv 4 RUNOUt TAL NBR OF OUTAGES 5 YEARS 6 TOTAL DURATION OF OUTAS 5 YEARS 70 DAYS AVYERG MIER Of UTAGES PER YER 1.2 AVERAGE DURATIO PER OUTAGE 11.7 DAYS AVIERGE OTAGE TINE P WR 14 DAYS A^5 Page 1 of 6 Jamaiea Petroleum Product Demand Forca 1. Key iputs to the peparatlon of an vestment/business plan for the petroleum fuels secr are projectons of the Jamaican domesc demand for each of the dstinc product categories imported direct or capable of being'produced by the Petrojam reiy. Tbe approach to preparation of such a forecat has been to break each main product category to the exnt possible into sub-categories by sub- sector ue. The basis for each of these sub-categories is then defied separately. The resultant base forecast is showm as Table AS.I. Th base are dcibed below in accordance with the sub-category designations sbown in the demand forecast table. An overall economic (GDP) growth rate of 3% p.a. throughout the forecast period was assed, as used as the basis for the GOi's Five Year Plan 1990- .1995. 1989 was used as the base year since completely rdiable figures for estimated 1990 consumption for all categories could not be obtained. 2. LPG - % per amum growth throughout assumes continued penetration of the total household stock for basic cooking, but at lower than historical rate, 6.5%. 3. Avgas - 3% p.a. growth throughout; this is a minor product which must be imported. 4. (Motor) Gasoline - 3.0% p.a. g4wth throughout; looking at historical growth of 6.4%, the growth rate would be higher than 3.0% p.a based on relationship with GDP growth; but it is assumed dtat growth ik driving activity (vehicle-miles) would be 4% p.a. with an 18.5% improvement in averag vehicle fleet consumption efficiency over the 20 year period. It is assumed that leaded gasoline will be completely phased out by the year 2000. For purposes of conservatism in the economic evaluation we have aumed a linear, 10% per year, shift from leaded to unleaded; in actual fact the refinery cases inorporate capability to make 100% undeaded by the year 1994. What wil happen in an acta markenglprofit maximization environment is a much fiser lead phase-out once these refinery capital facilities are instaled and paid for. S. Turbo fuel - 4.0% p.a growth troutghout; compaes with hiorical 9.3 %; passenger mile growth assumed to be 6% p.a over the period with an improvement in combined load factor and aircraft ful consumption efficiency over the period. 6. Kerosene, retail/peddler - 1.0% p.a growth throughout; thbis category is assumed to be mosdy household lighting and cooking, predominandy In the non-urban areas and in the lower income strata. The cooking will continue to be substituted by LPG and lighting by electricity. Growth is expected to be somewhere between 0 and 1.0% p.a. based on this penetation and experience elsewhere. 7. Kemsene, other (ulk)- 2.5% p.a throughout; this is a small, industrW demand, the historical growth for which was extremely variable and not completely reliable because of possible classification problems in the statistics gahfering. 8. Auto diesel, retail/peddler - 4.0 % p.a.; this is assumed to be predominantly vehicle use and usually exhibits a slighly higher growth rat than gasoline in a given economy, being more tied to commercial/industrial trucking activity and less prone to the efficiency gains we assume to be "imported into the gasoline-driven (mostly auto)fleet. A-7 ANNEX S.I Page 2 of 6 9. Auto dies, marne - 3.5% per ann; this is a smal bunkering demand related to commecal/industrial activity. 10. Auto diesel, power generation - not based on a growth rate assumption but forect volumes obtained ftom the mission power specaist during Mach 1991. 11. Auto diesel, bauxite- no based on growth rate assumtion but rather on the bauxite/alumina Industry's production plans and aociated specific fuel consumption, as obtainedfrom inteviews of the baute industry association officials. 12. Auto diesel, otherulk) - 3.5% p.a; this is mostly industrial/ commercial use for vehicle fleets, ownrgeneration of power etc. Growth rate assumed to be slightly bigher than GDP. 13. Marine diesel, marine - 3.5% p.a. same as 9.above. 14. Marine diesel, power generation - no projected consumpdon per advice of mission power specialist, March 1991. 15. Marine diesel, bauxite - sme as 11. above. 16. Marine diesel, cement - 8% p.a up to a maximm of 40% higher than actala 1990 levels; basis obtained from cement company officials per their production plans. 17. Marine diesel, other(bulk) - 4.0% p.a. based on an industral growth rate slightly higher ta GDP growth. 18. Fuel oil, high vanadium, marine - 3.5% p.a same as 9. above. 19. Fuel oil, higb vanadium, power generation - not based on a growth rate assumption but frecast volumes oban from the mission power speciast during March 1991. 20. Fuel oil, high vanadium, cement - same as 16. abve. 21. Fuel oil, other - 3.5% p. a basd on an industial growth rate slightly higher than GDP growdh. 22. Fuel oil, bauxite, cracked - this was developed from the bauxite industry association's projection of ndustry protduion of bauxite and alumina, combined wih projections of specific fAel consupton. As yet no distinction has bee made between high and low vanadium material, but this possible quality const is being Investigated. In our rfinery production modelling we treat the bauxite fool oil demand as an export markt 23. Lubricants are shown in the forec for sake of completeess; they are non-fiel, Imported specilty products which have no bearing on the inWvsm plan. A growth re of 5.0% p.a was assumed. A-B .. AN=SA Page 3 of 6 24. Asphalt is another non-hdel spity product; It I impora that this be incuded in the forecast sine li Is produced by the refinery. The production capacity of the refinery is well in excess of the orde-of-magnItude of local consumption of this product. Local consumption is highly dependent on the levol of fundin available for road couedon and maintenance and has fluctuated quite widely in the receat past A growth rate of 6% p.a from base year 1989 has been assumed. 25. The following are key product specifications assumed for the base Investment screening casm; where the8 are possibilides that specifications may be changed, these a indicated: aasoine. Ieade Base case mimum distillation end-point 401 degF; this compares with higher end- points, up .to 438 degF for regular gasoline in intenational trade and could possibly be relaxed. Base case minimum research octane number(RON) 95.0; this could probably be relaxed to 93.0 or even 92.0 without any major effect on the vehicle fleet. Tub FueUKrin - Dual BurM Base case assumes Jamaica's continued compliance with the very stringent DERD 2494 specification; this is a British spec. which, among others, is particularly tough on corrosion (silver strip max.- 1); the U.S. spec is not so stringent, a typical one being ta required by the ColonW Pipeline. T'e SPOT prices fbr kemolturbo in major U.S. markets e.g. Gulf Coast or New York Harour, reflect this less stringent specification. Autmo2tDiverl) Oil Base case minimum cetane Index number 45.0; maximum distillation end point 700 degF.; maxmum sulphur content 0.5% by weight. Bunker 'C" Fuel Oil (non-bauxite) Base case maximum Viscosity 200 SSF a 122 degF; maximum sulphur content 3.0% by weight. There could possibly be some relaxation of the viscosity spec to 300 or even 400 SSF 0 122; JPS is the principal customer and this would have to be reviewed with them as well as other clients such as the cement plant. Ng. 6 uEla OH for Bauxlte/AuMina Base case maximum viscosity 225 SSF @ 122 degF and maximum sulphur 3.0%. The industry specifications also indicate maximum API gravity specs of 11.0 for one company and 12.0 for the other two; as well, one of the three companies specifies a minimum calorific value of 151,250 Btu/VSgal (Gross), while one has a price debit below 6.4 A-9 Page 4 of 6 millon Btaibarrel. Tho third does not ecify calorific value. If these specifications are stdcdy enforced, the strht-run material from the prsent Petrojam refinery would normally not meet thes specs. Even If the low-BTU content per barrel, high API gravt, sraight-r materal from the present rfinery were acceptable at a BTU debit, the refinery I not normally competivo with cacked fuel from the USGC, especially compared with the alnative of selling this atmospheric bottoms Into the USGC as cracker feedstock, when that market is aailable. Another quaity sue is the vanadium conten. It appea that vanadium is a problem In the alumina calcing operation but i not a problem in underhe-boiler use. One company specifies 400 ppm max for boier use and 200 ppm max for calcination fuel. A second specifies a maximum of 250 ppm(wlth exceptions granted as agreed on an Individual cago) and the third a maximum of 350 ppm, without additional notation. As noted above, this possible quality constraint is being lnvestigated. A-10 Page 5 of 6 Table AS.1I imnaka . Petroleum Fuel Products Demnd Forecas (rhousands of Barrels) ORJTN RATFE %p.a. LPG 1985~IM lf 19W6I198 Ac M8 19 89 !L,200 I"I I01M? M I" L" ~~~367 39 413 429 413 65% 5.0% 521 547 515 0 6 AVia II II 10 12 14 5.72 3.0% 15 15 16 16 IT IT altfs9, teedm 1,52 1,546 1.680 1.760 1.949 6.4% 1,861 1,704 1.536 1.356 1,164 .99 * S~~omiasoUsu,twl.d 0 0 0 0 a 207 426 658 9M41.1641.439 S/otal GasolIne 1I2 .4 1I8 .6 199 64 3.0% 2068 2.130 2,94 2620 2328 2396 Turo Nuet 79 93 1,035 1.052 1.139- 9.3% 4.0% 1,232 1,282 1,333 1,386 1,442 1.499 Korowle Rtewtal1/odlew 327 326 396 439 367 2.9% 1.0% 374 378 382 385 36 393 othar(Sulk) 21 a6 37 51 65 32.0 22.5% 68 70 n 72 3 75 7r SITotul Karoa.ew 348 354433 49435.51.344244453454447 Totat Turbo. lye* 1.146 1,286 1.469 1,542 1,571 8.2% 3.4% 1.615 1,729 1.786 1.645 1.906 1i97 Auto OtOset Roelta/poddler 59 628 74 '643 679 3.3% 4.0% 734 764 794 626 859 894 "pine 1 13 43 35 St S.% 3.S2 56 58 60 42 64 6? POMW arGa 11) 32 78 240 6W64.8% NA 235 355 456899 399340 SemIte 75 80 76 79 111 10.3% NA 166' 163 159 168 164 164 OtherCutk) 3022n1 168 310 300 -0.1% 3.5% 321 333 344 356 369 382 S/Totat Auto DIest 1;,105 983 1.129, 15,37" 1.7'8'9 12.82 3.4 1.13 1,672 1.814 2.312 1,856 1,646 marine iog"el Marine 38 47 53 39 4 3.82 3.51 47 48 50 52 54 56 Foew Gma. 3 23 7 0 0 VA 0 0 0 0 0 0 oemits 62 44 77 77 101 13.2% NA 151 148 144 153 '149 149 comas? 0 36 49 101 212 8.02 140 152 1"64 Y 17712182 GthikASuk) 1 5 3 71 '103 14 649.8X 4.0% 158 164 171 178 185 192 .. .. .. .. ; ..... .. .. .. . . . . a..... .. S/Toota Nra Of..t 120 249 256 320 5343.2% 2.2% 496 512 529 559 5G9 579 Fuel 011.31 Van NarIne 26 55 42 94 94 38.3% 3.5% 100 104 107 11l 115 119 FeNWe GM. 2,486 2.595 2,90 2,835 3,125 3.9% NA 3,927 4.055 4.170 3,852 4,364 4.379 CoMa? 0 110 335 313 163 8.0% 97 105 113122126 126 othrCwi(k) 377 331 313 338 401 1.5% 3.5% 429 444 460 476 493 510 5/Total 90olocat 3,088 3,091 3,593 3.580 3 782 5.21 *0.8% 4,554 4,708 4.850 4.542 5,09 5,134 saxito,Cr.elc 3,060 2.115 1,999 2,105 3.826 5.?% NA 7,143 7,000 6,847 7,23 7.057 7?05 Total PC Of Wmn 6,148 5.206 5,592 5685 7r,608 5.5%.0316911781691191255211 SeowIr 481 994 1.209 1,059 1,416 20.1% NA CUMs? 0 125 0 0 0 Othe 0 50 0 0 0 touta POLo Van 481 1,16,9, 1,2910'59" 1,4'1'6 20".1'% 'MR a" 0 0 0 0, Luba ~ 67 79 73 78 835.825.02 92 97 101 107 11211? Asphalt ~~~~43 77 108 167 97 22.72 6.0% 109 116 123 130 138 16 *.~~~~~~~~~~~.. .......... .. ..... ... . ... ............. TOTAL ALL PROSCT 11.210 11.025 11,938 12,338 15,503 8.42 1.3%18,186 18,527 18,835 19,623 19,714 19.930 A-1 1 Page 6 of 6 Tab. ALl o.ntbrnd 1997 199 1999 20N 2001 200 200 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201 .... ... .. . .. A.. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. LPG 699 734 77 809 4 9 936 983 1,032 1.084 1,138 1,195 1,255 1,31? Avons 18 Is 19 19 20 20 21 22 22 23 24 24 25 26 omline, louade 741 509 262 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GSOtiII, wIelded 1,72 2,035 2,358 2.69 2.77 2.863 2.949 3#03 3,128 3.222 3.319 3,418 3,521 3,626 S/Total hmlein 24925 22,620." 2,698 2.9 2,83 294 3.03 3.2 i.222 3,31 3,418 3.521 3.626 Turbo Fust 1.559 1,622 1.686 1,754 1.824 I.89 1,973 2.052 2.134 2,219 2.308 2,400 2,496 2,596 botall/P.dile 39 401 405 409 413 417 422 426 430 434 439 443 448 452 Otbew(Sutk) 79 $1 83 85 87 89 92 94 96 99 101 104. 106 109 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 8/Total KerOMen 476 482 488 494 501 507 513 520 526 533 540 547 554 561 Total Turbo + Kmr 2,035 2,104 2.175 2,248 2,325 2,404 2,486 2.57 2,660 2,752 2,848 2,947 3.050 3,157 Auto DOesel RtetailPeddler 929 967 1,005 1,045 1,087 1,131 1,176 1,223 1,272 1,323 1,376 1.431 1,488 1,547 Narine 69 71 74 77 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 101 104 108 Power Ghn. 316 173 185 138 188 247 312 292 271 352 446 430 415 400 Bauxite 164164164 164164 164 164 164164164164 164164164 Oth.r(Sulk) 395 1.09 423 438 453 469 486 503 520 539 557 577 597 618 8/Total Auto Ofesel 1,874 1,784 1.851 1,'86'2 192209 .2 2,270 2,18 2.47 2,640 2.70 2,76 2.83 Marine Di ese Martri 58 60 62 64 66 68 71 73. 76 78 81 84 87 90 Pow GMa. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bauxite 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 Cement 182 182 182 182 182 182 182 182 182 182 182 182 182 182 OtherC3utk) 200 208 216 225 234 243 253 263 274 284 296 308 320 333 S/Totat Nar Disef58 98 60 619 63 42 64 67 80 694 708 72 73 74 1997 1996 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Marine 123 128 132 137 141 14 151 157 162 168 174 160 186 193 Peww amn 4,546 3,939 3,79 3,148 3.240 2.564 2,643 2,777 2,913 2.260 2,305 2,465 2.630 2,766 Cemen 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 OtherIgutk) 528 546 565 585 606 627 649 671 695 719 744 77 79 82 S/Ttal FO,ltwat 5,323 4,739 4.620 3.996 4,113 3.463 3,570 3.731 3,896 3.273 3,349 3.541 3.739 3.910 sawftte,Craoke 7,06? 7,057 7.057 7,057 7,057 7,057 7,057 7.057' 7,05? 7.057 7,057 7.05W 7.057 7,057 Total P0 of Van 12. 380 11,.796 11671I5 1111,2 10,.,627 10.78 10,95 10,3'30' 10,,40? 1059 1079 10,967 Fuel 0f11, Le Van "auite cement Tottlto La Van 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MOAL. MUL PRODUCT$ 20.063 19.5S77 19,721 19.309 19.746 19,434 19,896 20,339 20,M9 20.576 21,083 21.608 22.154 22,685 Lubas 123 129 136 143 150 15? 165 174 182 191 201 211 221 233 Asphalt 155 164174185 196 -208 220 233 247 262 278 295 312 331 TOAL ALL PROUCT 20.342 19, 871 20,031 19.637 20.09 19.799 20.281 20,745 21,224 21,030 21.562 22,113 22,687 23,249 A-12 JOINT UNDP/WORI BANK ENERGY SECTOR ASSISTANCE PROGRAME JAMAICA ENERGY SECTOR STRATEGY AND INVESTME PLANNING STUDY PETROLEM SUBSECTOR PROCESS ENGINEERING ANALYSIS CONSULTANT REPORT BY RTM ENGIN G LTD. CALGARY, ALBERTA, CANADA August 1991 A-13 I FOREWORD This process egneering analysis was carried out by Mr. Thomas McCann, refinry engineer and presidet of RTM Engneing Ltd. (Caad). It was based on field work in January 1991, and on firthex anytical work in the home office. TIe iniia draft report was reviewed by Petrojam, MME, and World Bank Staff, all of whose commen wra takm into consderaton for this final version. The results of these analyses were used to derive cashflows in the economic and financial analyses of the peroleum product altratives. A-15 TABLEO DE lz5 PaPg Foreword ......... ...... ............ .... .. .. i Table of CorA ............................. , 1.0 PETROJAM REFINERY FACIULTES ..... .......... ..... ........ ... *. 1 1.1 Ebt Faclities and OCpetdon ........................... . 1 1.1.1 Gener ......... ...................... 1 1.1.2 Nationd1Roles ............................ 1 1.1.3 EnvIronme Sitaion . * ... .................. 2 1.1.4 rocessUnit . ........................... 10 1.1.5 Tankage and ProductBlending ................. 10 1.1.6 Utlities .............................. 11 1.1.7 SpacingandSafety ..... ................... 12 2.0 PRODUCTSPECIFCATIONS ............*. . . . . ............... ... 12 2.1 Propane and Bubae ........................................ 12 2.1.1 General .............................. 12 2.2 Galines ........................ ...........4.. 13 2.2.1 Unleaded Gason......................... . '3 2.2.2 Gasohol .............4................. 14 2.2.3 Envirmental Factors . ......... ............ 14 2.2.4 GsolineSpefl sothertdanOta .......... 14 2.3 KerofrWubo ........................................ 15 2.4 DieselFus ......................................44 1S 2.4.1 General .............................. 15 2.4.2 NowGas Turbne(GTO)Spedficaon ............ 15 2.4.3 ADOSpeificeaton ........................ 16 2.4.4 MDO Spc .i.i.c.a.......................... 17 A-17 Hi 2.5 Navy FudC OH........................ 17 2.S.1I Genera ............................ 17 3.0 REINERYPR OCESS MOD CATION CASE ....... ....................... 18 3.1 InthduIon ..............................*.*....* . is*.. 18 3.2 BasCase: Terminnal Ony . . . . . , . . *......... ..0 .- . ... 2S 3.2.1 Oudino ......................... ... 25 3.2.2 Facility ChaIu ......................... 2X 3.2.3 Enviromant Acti es ..................... . 25 3.2.4 3"flg ............................ 26 3.2.5 nvtores ............................ 26 3.2.6 Costs ............................. 26 3.3 Case: BusinessAsUsual ............................. . 28 3.3.1 Oudine ......................... ... 28 3.3.2 Facity Changs .... ..................... 2 3.3.3 Unleaded Gasoline ......................... 30 3.3.4 NewTankage ............................ 30 3.3.S EnInmetaCIages .................... . 30 3a.3.6 Costs ............................... 31 3.3.7 Crude Sdel don .......................... 33 3.4 Ca I: Matchig Cataytic Cracukig ..... ................ . 33 3.4.1 Obdie ......................... ... 33 3.4.2 Ex"istIg Facity (ages .................... 3S 3.4.3 NewFaciits ........................... 3S 3.4.4 Unleaded Gasoline ......................... 37 3.4.5 Eovkonmena Choges .. .................... 37 3.4.6 Costs ............................. 39 3.4.7 CudeSdele n .......................... 41 3.4.8 Space ............................... 41 3.4.9 ydocaceAltere in Cae II ..... .............. 41 3.5 Ca M: Expaed Catytic Cracki . ..................... 42 3.5.1 Oud ie . .............................. 42 3.5.2 Exsting Fadlities ......................... 42 A-1 8 3.5.3 New Faciltes ........................... 44 3.5.4 Unleaded Gasoline ......................... 44 3.5.S E IroneneW Changes .... ................. 44 3.5.6 Costs ................................ 44 3.S.7 Crude Selection .......................... 47 3.5.8 Space ...... ..................... . 48 3.6 Cas TV: 100,000 DPD Reinery .......................... 49 3.6.1 Oudine ..... #................. 49 3.6.2 Existing Facilities ......................... 50 3.6.3 Now Units ............................ SO 3.6.4 Envirommenta .............. . ............ S5 3.6.5 Crude Selection and Yields ................... S5 3.6.6 Costs .......................... 52 3.6.7 Space ........ .. .... ..... .... 54 4.0 ESril1TING BASES 5... ............. ........ 55 4.1 CapitalEstimatteExtesions . . . 55 4.2 CapitalEstimateBases ... . ......... . 56 4.3 Operatnt gCostBases........... . . ............ 57 5.9 EV ONMENTAL IM PACT ASSERSSENT . . . . . . ... .. . .. . S 5.1 Germa .............I.... ....Se 5.2 Covetame ..5. ................ S8 5.3 Enviromentadhmpact Measuremet. . 58 S.4 Assessmet .................... .... . ....... S9 5.5 Refinery-Speciric Copo ids ................. ........... 59 5.6 o ationsPhase................. 60 A-19 l 1.0 PERO AdM REFWNERY FACIMII 1.1 EXISTiNG EFIR FACILiT AND OPERAT1ON 1.1.1 GENERAL The Petrojam refinery, built by ESSO hn 1963, has a nominal capacity of 38,000 BPSD of cmde oil and spikes of partially processed butane, naphtha, or gas oil. The rinery was designed to use an optimum mix of ESSO Venelal/ whole crudes and spikes, in order to minimize the need for processing. The refinery was designed with an overriding emphasis on capital cost reduction, witti process units being tightly integred and tankage areas minimized to reduce the costs of developing the site. While Petrojam has maintned a high standard of maintenance, some of the equipment is aging-e.g. fired heaters and storage tanks-and now needs significant maintenance. With the assistance of PetroCanada International, opporunities for energy conservation were identified, and in 1987 a gas turbine cogenerator with heat recovery was added, among other items, to improve energy efficiency. Because the originl specifications were for dested crude and spikes, the refinery was not Wepped with a desalter to remove salt and dirt from the crude. This is now causing sludge buildup in the crude and HFO tanks, and fouling exchangers, despite the reasonably low salt contents of Venezue cudes. Crude, from other countrWs have even higher salt content and therefore creae even more sludge and exchger fouling. The refinery cueady operates between 20,000 and 30,000 BPSD, according to the demand for products. The refinery processes primarily Venelan and Mexican crudes, and spikes ihe Venezuelan crudes wth semi-finied products when economic. It also uses some Ecuadorian Oriente crude. 1.1.2 NATIONAL ROLES The refinery tries to maintain a 34day inventory of crude and spike products to allow for normal operaonl flexibility and protect against delays in crude shipments, emergency shutdowns, and other unforeseen c tances. Shortges of foreig exchrngesometimes make this liventory much slimmer, however. vOqPw in Vuuezneb, o.rhuaUykxmwsCreoePeir en, Lwxowte aioaledsabsdiwyefPerekos deVenCWklaqori.0V A-21 ., 2 Reiry maSers spend a significant amount of time on naonal af, as dtinct fom Ptrojam opaonl planng nd management-e.g. ntona enr coserto n plng, ar quality montring, and creadon of refind petolem quaity stands. he rinery has become, in effect, the technial am of the gover t in matters concning rfid products, crude ol supply, and monitorig protocols. Such activities should more approprialy be mad the responsibiity of COJ gencies such as Bureau of Standards, MME, and NRCA. 1.1.3 ENVIRONMENTAL SITUATION 1.1.3a Ronay Issu Tbe refinery is not a sigdficant, constant source of emissions to de Kson enionment. The offluentwater has some m r peak of phur componls and on occaslon could have o presen There also a problem of oilln grud water under part of he refinery. (U) Atmospheric Emissions 1e four rfinery fams exitng th two sacs, and the gs 8tib gpe o exhaus, bo roeaso sphur diod (SO), nitrogen oxids (NOx), Wae vapu, aS trc of pazoateu. TM flr stick normally c uts vey lit in the way of pdots. As Table T illuates, 1t tefinys conution to S0 %I smal a proj to say small, even with ne units. A22 3 A031 wI Esmtu of eUein SO,* Embsns - Tbheiandof s10aa PMa'p - Soure 1989 1995 2000 2005 Hwy Fuel OiN (OIFO) a 0 Elcd¢t 26.0 29.0 32.5 30.0 * AlundlBawdte 48.0 60.5 60.5 60.5 * Other 2.5 60.0 7.0 8.5 Diese b() 3.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 Othe Fuels 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 (Gasoline and Kerosene) Refinery 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 (Ges and HFO) Othe Soures (b) , hl 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Tots 83.5 107.0 112.0 111.0 (a) Prpred from estmates of future Jadalcan fue demands, excluding coal. lb) HFO assmed to hae 2.7 wt percent sulphur; dbses assumed to have 0.5. (aI May be incomoIe-spu"urlc acid productin, etc. Bad on rvaton and on calcuatom of hay ftul ol burned, the Coat oaodudes at * At dbd(SO ) pductn is low n a per capita bs. At Ibo dx mmming stions Involved In te Petrojm Commuity Heth Eazd Survey (we below), av s ground leml conntration was oly 6 uW, whc is balf the the U.S. per cata rale. * Rcovery of hdogen iido (H1S) fom refiey fie gs, ad convesn to slphur for sale, I unecnmc at de 2 to 3 me pr day quat aviable. * Pwojam emidons of niton oxIdes (N0C a ls tan 10 percnt of ft emIsons from neatby PS facilids. NOx gmd level are normaly reted to t* bhh brown hae and pardal conveion to one. A-23 4 * NO, emiio from he JPS power pln, espelay from th Hut Ba gs tubines d dte easten heavy fie oil based diesels, are obvious. Petojam's emisions ae minimal by oompars. Th Petojam gas tbine gives off a dightly brownmis plume when operatg. Te prposd addition of bun downstream of th gas tne sbould redce these emissions, and also conrinbute to increased heat recovery and energy efficiency. * Petrojam particulate emisions relate only to heavy fuel oil use, and, as wit 502, are a small percentage of total local emissions, most of which come from JPS. * odours from the refinery are related to the odourant used in LPGs. There is also some smell from gasoline loading operations with the top loading system. The refinery has high minanc sandards for leak-prone equipment, and is vigilat in co-olfi leaks. Te air quality in Kington was also tsted by the Petrojam Community Healt Haard Survey, conducted between August 7 and 11, 1990. This srvey was based on alr samples collected at six air monitoring sttionsr 1) Texaco Fuel Stae Depot on Wimdward Road in Rockfort 2) Gillette Cadbbean Limited on Gordon Town Road in Hope Tavem; 3) Redee in Golden Spns on Valleyview Road; 4) Resne in Havendae on Cooahade Drive; 5) Dergr Pains on Spaish Town Road in Riverht City; and 6) Petam IUmited Refinery on Marcus Garvey Road. Samping wa conduted duing the daylight hous for 8-u peiods to m_ea the ambient bvels of beue, sulphur dide, total sapended psicats, ad lad. The results of the sveyr ate presented in Tablos 2 through S. Community Ambient Air Standards, which provide acceptable refereair tons forthem pollus, are shown in Table 6. With regad to be C(able 2), the Petrom area blips were due most liky to gasoline truck lading. In time, bottom loading of gasoline s will reduce Mich emisasions. With regd to suphur dioxide (Table 3), the refiny ea is in fe downwash during east winds from the Hunts Bay power plant and, hence, subject to great vadation in S0% levels. As noted ve, he refinery's S02 contribon not large, although the vsbe emisions fm refinery sacks are distbg to ea riddents. A-24 S WIh regrd to osspended particulates, Petojam i ot as sigficant a conitor as JPS, cement plan, and dumps.2/ Much current work concerns paricls sm than 210 mim trs reaive to human health; is suvq (Tal 4), howee, collected la partdiles as wll. The wnrey did not idefy diee exhaus padclas as a heat hazard, but are of cancen in the U.S. and Europe with regd to diesel engie dedig ad suphur In diesel. With regard to lad (Table 5), te samplng and ayic procedue did to permt anayis below the 2 ug/m' level, but It appears to be witn acceptable ambiet air coocentrtions. Sice lead pta by ildren ofte comes from dl anld solid lids paint, however, th ambient air test alone cannot filly meure health Im . Table 2 Air Monito Data for Benzene CoDected from Augs 7, 1990 to August 11, 1990 for Peram Ltd. Sete Wo) 3uqle Location Dy I 2 3 4 5 Texaco 41 Tr 41 Tr Tr tofllt, 41 41 Tr 41 41 ot1dn WSrin" 1 41 41 41 41 saendMo 41 41 41 41 4 Wr Paints Tr tr Tr 6 Tr PetroJa 12 sT Tr 41 41 0Suc ESE, 1990. Da is Aust 7, 1990. Tr a Trvwezmbne was detected at lels nmar the detectf on timit Aldsh based tpn th awirage air votwu collectet Is 0.001 mg/u or I u&W. 3d Ac.it so Ah rqwe, SoAd Wae. rak Wat edAir PbWo^- by SEt , A .Acti Dircor d* GOM's brw.mlCerelDAh,o partIclae.Los In tos4r wretimaedtob: JS. 2$64, and naka ii cem_,encaay, 320) dvips 2M eatwe wo 2a24Qabkl or ouu hwwr. total reayfd an is abot 10% 4fJftm, so tda powut emiu wuld be on the rder ef 25 soleawa te rr . A-25 6 Table 3 Air Moitorg Data for Sulphr Dioxide Clected on Augst 7, to August 11, 1990 for Petm LAd. Sulfur Dioxide (ug/gP) Location Day 1 2 3 4 5 Texaco 9 z 4 3 2 Gitlete 9 5 8 3 18 Gotdn prWng 42 2 7 5 r llwaLe 5 9 7 5 3 Brgr Paints 6 3 14 4 6 PetroJm 5 14 40 4 42 suce: a8. 1990. Day 1: Auust 7, 1990. Da 1: August 7, 1990. Suples antlyzed by SIOSH tbtod 26. Table 4 Air Monitoing Data for Total Suspended Parculates Coeted on Augst 7,l990 to Aust 11, 1990, for Petojam Ltd. Toul Particuletes (wI.@) Location Day 1 2 3 4 5 TeoX *20 40 20 73 40 611ete 420 40 81 40 40 oWtdn Springs 40 40 26 420 420 glevndete 420 40 40 420 40 serw erfnts 420 92 70 40 40 PetroJn 420 1l0 120 40 40 Sce: ESE. 1990. ohy 1, Augst 7, 1990. A-26 }~. g 4iii ^4^kt S!' I rY vvtl Sfl 1|1's 1 i- Ps g il ' ' t !ij X §]U, _ 8 dissolved ai flotaon unit to remove traces of ol, a blooxidation unit to remove any organics, and sval holing ponsin which water can be checke befo release. Wao water fom e proce ea conwai lphur compounds which occadoay dsow in dh effluen water, the refinery needs a small system tat can strip out th compounds befo release to the oiy water system. The refinry's bo-oxidadton unit and huon waste processing are saftsctory. The sfinery as weds addition separat capacity and a disolved air flotaton ssem to bdng the refineay up to "good practice.' The retendon ponds are large enough to handle to low waste wter flow rate. In the soutwest corner of the refinery, oil is seeping into te grund water becae the area indde tank dykes is pemeable to bobt -ltud water, and not all tank wate drains are routed to the oily water sew..er systm. Ths cofguraton is cotray to good practice and there is a potent for slow lkage out to die west into th harbour. The refiney sta bave recmmn ano barier oan the wet si to keep the ofl ondte undl t is reovered. Te eas and west side of the sites are not affected by ground water movement In general, te urvy notd community concens about th lack of syem to cool qlfa rul storm runoff *om Industrial areas. Eventuly, the tcaded fom these industa propertes by storm water fidter way ino the community and may contaminate te lan an waerways. The conultant e that all tak water drains be conectd to the oily water sewer, or sealed to prt draining aecept lo a barrel under areflly contod condions. All areas ide the dykes should be made impous t oU anmdwater to prevent fier gound water degradation. These dykes should bave valved drains to oy water treatment systems for cas when evaporation does not dry up m water. A small disolved air floaton system should be added to tbe finhl treatuent proceA A-28 9 Control of land contamtion Is satsatory except for the dudge bud in cade tn. 1.1.3b Prduct Issues Te quality of gsol d diesel products is sadsatory. Mme refy Is prepring for all-unleaded gasl producdon by the end of the next decade. The availability of unleaded gasoline mes at vWcles with catalytic exhaust systems can be imported. These systms will reduce vehicle emissioss, which react with NO,, to form ozone and cotbute to urban haze. Th Impact of current emissions on te eavioament Is undined. he gasol in the catalydc cracking case may, howve, be more reacdve in ozone fomatio; this would equir frtier study If NO concentrations are found to be sufficindy seious. About 90 percent of the aIphur dioxide emitted into Jamaica's amosphe comes from heavy fel o{l; the remainder comes from the Spanish Town suphuic acid plt The lPS plants' contribution to SO emissions is prjected to irea by 20 percent in tonnage tms by fte year 2005, but will remain at 30 percent of thse , sice the em ons of the al au le iusties will also increase. Table 1, above, indicates projed total S emisiom by 2005. Th exte to wbich 1he genl use of heavy fdel oil In Jamaica contbu to acid rain (S% pus niogen oxIs, NO,) has not been determined. As Indicated in Table 1, above, the rfinety at present is not a dgnificant source of to SO2 emissions. New refinery faiites are expected to control NO, emissis wih special bus. 1.1.3c Nadonal and lnational Issues Jamaica needs to develop an enbanced national program for a) emissions inventre b) spot and conuou monitoi; c) Impact asment, includg slected soil an veetation Iedons; and d) definig fuel and emissions standards. Jamaica has no e emiss corl agreements with other couties, but is participating in a Untued Nations effort to crate global agreements coneing acid a, volatile oanic compounds, and gre ser gse (carbon dioxide, mete, NO,, cioro- fluorhydrocarbons, et.). These Isues will be addressed in a U.N. e on meeing in &azl in Jun 1992. Prior to dtt meedng, Jamaca shoud develop a sound _ of its local emissions iss, and formulate its poidton relatve to a gobal accord. A-29 10 1.1.4 PROCESS UNITS The refney has the following process units with nominal (design cnde) calendar day averages: * Atmospheric cude disWllion 35,300 BPCD 0 Naphtha hydroater combined with light end proessing and naphtba frctionator 6,400 DPCD * Powerfomer uprading heavy naphtha 3,500 BPCD * Keroene bydroweetener 5,000 PCD * Gas oil (diesel) hydrotreater 8,000 BPCD o Vacum unit for asphalt only 3,000 BPCD Wbile the refiey capacities are shonb at a 93 percent onsteam fctor, maximum avaiablt s aca closer to 85 percent Ths is due to such Powerformer sysem limitatom as excessl.e number and length of shuddowns, and slow ups because of lack of hdrogen for th hydrotreat undl the Powerform is operating. Crude is usualy fed only from one tanlk but on occaion a dmple twoank ystem Is used to blend crudes fom dift tanks. In hat case, gat valves are controlled by had, and the lvel in each tak is peocaly monited. Aide fom the beater for the small vacum tower, the crude cwarge and Powerme ed ami! intractor funes provide the proes heat. Exhaust gases from the new (1988) gs tub gnerato heat a pordon of the crude befre it eners the crude heater. 1.1.5 TANKAGE AND PRODUCT BLENDING Although ESSO origly insUlled a swem to blend light naphtha, Poerforate, butane and heavy naVhdas, and imported cracked gasole, gasoline Is now blended in takage. lhe refinery orgnUy produced two kaded grades, premium and regular, but leaded rega has bee eliminated. About 10 percent of total Jamaican demand is uneaded nd is dretly imported because he refiy is not presenty able to produce unleaded gasoline that meets ocae reqwkements. Kerosene for domesdc use and for jet fuiel s produced diectdy from the keroe hydroweletenerM The jet fuel contais significant amourts of water, due to the steam saripper used in prces , and this creates the problem of enhanced biological act at the bottom A-30 of stoage tans. SpCI' wate draw-off systms have not solved the problem. Diesl tanag h8 ka Iddcal pmblem, but It I muc more wvere with jet fe because of its tigt A dgnifica aa of te refinery b devoted to keon drumming, drm storg, ad truck ag operado. Heavy el dl is blended off the process unit. It consists of atmospheric column botoms plus Vs oil fom the asat vacuum unit, with some fighter frcions as needed to meet visty Speclfications. HPO ank have low pressure steam cofls but no insuladtin, and can produ only one grade at a dme. HPO suphur content varies with the crudes, and the is no bbnding control of HFO sulphur. Coment can be varied only tugh crude seltidon. Gasoline are the only product tanks with mixing capabilities, by mean of jet nozzes and tra pumps. HFO for the JPS Hunt Bay plant Is nsferred by pipeline to an ESSO tank in te marketg tminal, an then on to JPS. A systan is In constructio hat wil permt dre renr ransfers . Hunt Bay. Tank tru for gsoie, diesel, and kero/trbo re p loaded. A separat rac is used for EFO tuc loadi. All loadig metes are cerally monit for billing and product cool. 1.1.6 UTJTIBS Ibe reiy produces Its own power with a ps tubine generato which bur refmir fuel gs The wae heat is used to preheat tke crude oil. Relnezy pre steam is geneated in wsva small bois. An inet gs geator is used for Powerfaorme regneatIon. Insm t air compressors feed a dier and te plt inument air system. lum entation 18 pnemdc, except for some nw electronic Isruments that bave replaced obsole pnemaic syms. A sma flare li collec vents from low-level ref aves in the pe area, and leads to a 6hich flare stack. RdiRef valves vent to the atmoshe above each dsillaon colum. A-31 12 1.1.7 SPACING AND SAFY Th rofiy was ly lid out, but does not meet new sandars. The reony geray has a good record; however, several small fires, due to column relief valves releasing to the a and liquia d condening back onto hot rfaces, clearly indicate duadons which must be immediately orected. Any new facilides will be required to meet curren standards, which reflect a igwten dueo the high incidence of fires at other refinries In recentycars. Two fire pump poide 3.000 GPM of fire water, wich is marnal covee . Two more pumps ae under coanderaion. 2.0 PRODUCT SPEAIFCATION Tis section reviews current and prospeodve product specifications which may affect expamion ng. 2.1 PROPANE AND BUTANE 2.1.1 GENERAL -Me addition of a catalytic cracking unit wull nuroduce e qtities of light olefins Ino C, nd C4 pools. Even with prduc ll contin S to 20 percent liH Cs and C4 olefs. More deinive eagieern studies must be done to determine whether polymerizadon or equl prcessg of th lght olef from catalytic crackdig will prove economic. If light defins are not convered to gsoline, as discusd in Secton 3.4 and 3.5 (catalydc crackng facility cas I and I), the 'propa olefn cont could go as high as 6S percent and butane could go to 60 percent, afler diluion with puaffic C, and C4 frM catalytic refoming and crude. Other refineies sell propa with a maxLum 5 pcet olefin specification; but higher concenations (up to 60 percnt) have proved sasactory for other than inbernal combuston use. The refinety's prope ad butne products ow have no olef. Due to potntal ly on when Cs bottes are exposed to te sn for an length of time, the consta does no recommen propane for domestic boted use with a propylene conent above 20 percet Ihe olefin content of but shold be kept at a similar level. A-32 13 12. GASOLINES 2.2.1 UNLEADED GASOLINE As noted above, th efinery produc aoly a premium grade of leaded golie, wi the couy Imprtg unlead gsoln to sasfy the uret dema (10 perct of toa gasol sales). Unleaded gasolin I now avaiable at many gs station that were odrgiy t up to sell two -des of laded Mhe premiulu leaded gasoline grade has a minimum Research Oca Number (RON) pecification of 95 ad minimum Motw Octe specficaton of 85. lbe Jamaican Bureau of Standards i coanderig loweig tbhe scfia tio by up to two num s, with a fia decion depyeg o an alysis of the Jamacan road vehicle popuaton We for the stadard beig lwered to 92 or 93 for Researcb Octane and 82 or 83 for Motor Oct, which would be consistent with U.S. regular unleaded 87 octe on an (R+M)/2 basis. itib fte addition of caalytic cracked gasoline and poly gasoine compons In cetain cases, the Moto Octane specificadon will become more qolr than the Reseuah spefcato. Ote additive will also ca dramaicely to contrl gum foan and other litdes that are now of litle concer As unleaded golNe contue to achie Olicat penetration, and a worldwide lead an dro, te phaso of laded golne wl become eomicly necemsr. The de g u of taethyl lead wi cas th pric to drsad wM affeatrliabiity of supply. This may result In lew tan maximum lead cont being econmic in th short ru Unleaded gsoin will increas the mpn ofde ocan of lgt and bhe actow, whc a not always fly mixd at al engine cylnder r sa me opeat conions (some cylnders receive a _ of light ot heavy). With te addition of TEL, the lgbher paa c compounds, which predominate in Peojam's curr Ht gaoin fracton, a boosted firom octanes of about 70 RON to about 90 RON; but no such boost vabble when lead is not used. The consta recommends tat a minimum oct spefition for th lighter fracdos be condere in prepadon of a nadonl standard. This study assumes a 10 peoe pe year phase-in of unleaded oles, ring to 100 pece by the yea 2000. But s are Hke to ba even withA Ienties.Onee fcie are hsld to manu 100 percent uleaded gsoli (by about 1994 in all cass) it wM ot be economic for Jamaica to retan a leaded gasolie gade. A33 14 2.2.2 GASOHOL lbe contult did not auyze dIe economics of gOhol (10 peent eaol, 90 prcet hydrocabon) in any detail. But it s cle tht cost wl vary with he flucuadon of feedtock and etanl markets. As wih a che in gsoline compositn, ethanol shold be added gradualy to minimixe fth effect on vehice pedomnanc. Ethano use require lon-tem P1. 2.2.3 ENVIRONMETAL FACTORS Aalbl Jamaican data do not uppot the settg of sflc contr on benzee, ta aomics, olefins, or oxygen content In order to limit concetradtions of ambient benxen, volatle orWic compounds, or abon mon e. However, furter r w d be dome as onal and nadona air qualt objecdves are esished, sn ths compounds a a maj conoem in U.S. cties whe air poludon I acerted by tempetur inversios which frqeny occur In eKingson area. 2.2.4 AOLNE SPECCATIONS OTHER THAN OCTANE All gsoline seicatn shiold be nadonl and apply to oports and Petojam probdon fo domesic sae. Dstilladto end point specificatio for al gaf dsoWd be st betn 4W20F and 430°F. Except for oc and d, speidficato sd mirr U.S. (A.S.T.M.) slandards for as oer dn those with sve temperature invio. Are with th rwbequire refomuaeda gmsoes. im Us ofPp to 10 percent ethanol and iS percent T (meth lera ether) sod be pam i# In agSdLReen peroent ETBE ( o d=d d be mUx Me allowaeswod aWpp to IDmpored 8as s in bledn sto, as tey are un y to be poodd in Jamaica. Meth sou not be. used pending more da a iots emisin. Petr~am's Soies d have a balanced comton with armatics below 40 percent by vole, and olef below S volume per Such cotains can be actd i th process cngrto ified for the cas preseted below. WIth cacd materils (.e. olefi) praum biors are needed to mak the product stbe in sam . For etnol, a cal additve pack neded for c ion oontrd and ogar popdertie Fr sdy and aboratoy ftesi n omize e ue of th additiv A-34 1S 2.2.S OCTANE REQUREMENTS igh ocan _ole ar _en y prmoted beavily by markei compaes because of tho hge proft oied. Market anays in USA3V however, has ravealed that hi octa prem asoln is beg oveold and that only about 10% of cas require hie than the reguar gade asole of 27 octm (R+M)/2. 2.3 KERO/TURBO Keroto standards have a ight British DED (Dee Eninerig Research Departmm) corroo test not nomay used In North America. Ibe specificatin cab for 0.2 percent sdphlur by weight, as opposed to an ASTM (Ameican Society for Tesing ad Matrls) specification of 0.3. The refinery is proposing a change to the latt and we concur. Tis will reduce the demands on th ksen hydrourtau (a mild opation, with a srp margn for meeng the spcficaion). It will also permit a wider rag of crude used for kero/lubo productdon. The rene no using smoke point plu nphuban as an altrnat o the I miWomer combustio qualt specificadon. Ibis is a generally accepted approach and dwuld be confirmed in a natona sandard. 2.4 DESWEL FUE 2.4.1 GENERAL Patom pdces an aomotve diesel fiel oi (ADO) and a marn i diesd fld (MDO). Load grwth wi oor primarly In Jamaica bc Seice gas tue plan, which use ADO. By 1995, the gas tine diesel fel us i epecxd to be more tAn 50 pement of to ADO demand. MDO demand b projected to be 18 percent of ADO demand, up mardly fiom the yeas bdere 1985. 2A.2 NEW GAS TURBIEP FUEL (GTO) SPCIFICATION Athoug GTO is often encal to ADO, tiUs fiuel coud have a separate pecificato, but Os does mt appar wamr ed at pcted voume. JPS fuel qt weeds dould be analyzed to SW UU ?qffr ?femiu?" dddA~M Asrke Auomobi& Ausocideear/ffeb 1991, end D. roa ltIed Hgh A-35 .0~~~~~~~~~~~A - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~c '0 ~~~JI IjIli~~i 17 circulation per undt of feed t Ohe bydrofiner can produce. Th Processing of vir as Oils to a 0.05 wt percet level entails the same problems. The is no evidence that dies elorIgi partculate emisdons are a problem or that U.S. particulate exhaust standards ar necessy. If t new low die engne partcuate emio stdrds set for te U.S for 1994 are not required In a pardcuar jurisdiction, U.S. diesel nie man rs i liely spply Jamaican plants with badc engines that have not had specW exhaust treatment. We reomnmend, however, that space be provided for a new diesel hydrotreater to process both virgin and catalydc aaclxd lght cy4e oil to a 0.06 weigt percent Level, In te event tat this standard s adopted in the future. A small bydrogn unit may also be needed to pvide sufficiet hydrogen for the new bydtater. 2.4.4 MDO SPECIFICATION The current 37 cetane index specification (wIth a 37 ceane wmnber altenate) could be relaxed to allow the refiny to use light cycle oil when a catalytic cracking unit Is added. Canada uses a 32 specification for railds and heavy const on equipment; and t U.S. uses a 4-D heavy diesel specificati allows as low as 30. Both these specificatins have been found acceptable. The Jamaican MDO is a lighter, completely disdllate material, howwer, and may need differet specfications. For example, Jamica's crrent corrosio specification of a No. I capper strip is more appropriate for heavier diesd fWel. A No. 2 or 3 cpper tip dsould be consdered. The conulta te that the Jamaica Bureau of Standards conduct a user suvey befoe maklng any changes. 25 HEAVY FUEL OIL 2.5.1 GENERAL Petrojam's heavy fuel oil product Is lighter in gravity and lower in heat content per barrel thmn that pref*erd by bauxite and alumina processors, and the refinery has in the past traded its own oil for te more convenonal heavy fuel oil in order to supply thes companies. The Petrojam HFO product now contns appreciable vacuum gas oil, which is a valuable feedstock for conversion refineies in the USGC. Hence, the value of Petrojam IPO is now greater than that of conventional beavy fu oil. A-37 18 Ih Petam heavy l oN secia appls to a low viscodt heavy iel ol which cam be sto8ed notanks wit OoIy steaM COiS. Mm maximum vsosity of 200 Saybot Pure Secods (SFS) at 122 s thinmn ta the 'nomiml' A.S.T.M. maxmum for No. 6 fel ol at 300 SPS, and miuch lmh b de 600SFShevfae oi (pitch) used to many reinernies and coenal elecAtrcty g plas. Ibe Hunts Day Jamaica PuWlic Service eletri d ca generati pat, by cont does not bao signficn fad oil preeatg ar bnrs dedged for high vicity pitch and proefs a viscity of olly 175 maxImum SFS at 122°F. Me consant rommend gat P0j raise the heav fuel Oi visosity mum specification to 250 SPS at 122WF and dcage a premium for all heavy fiul oil under that himt, due to the need for addidonal diesel or kerosene to lower dte vicosity. The mximm s edfica tm should be set at a k1vel appropriate for both Petrojam's heavy el oil handg syem and for an ndependen system. Idaly, heavy fuel ol specficadom ould be tailored for each major customer, and te tana and blendn sym set up for cutom blends. lbi s not difficult in cases of cataye cracdig, whe avaibl eAcr stock sorage will aUow for final fl oil bledg to sut com needs. The su r cont, it dloud be noted, wI be determined by thae cud being processed unless low sulphur estock are used. D REFMmE MIC MODJFIC N CAM 3.1 INThODUCrION Ibis review considers flve cnarlos Trmil Only (Bae Case); Budiess as Usual (Ca 1); Matched FCC Additi (Cms I); Eabded FCC (C Im); and 100,000 BPD (Case MV. Cas I, B, and MI propose to add a anw desaler to inm th o_sm or and reduce the ash coonten of HFO, whih will rest in lower paricuate emission and reduced boilr tube ilure rats. bes ass also revamp the Powerfoner and use a new C H n ut ID facltte te pcon of uleaded soline. Cas IV bas been developed only in concepst form it prsents a complex proesing shme to maxmiz premim kerene and diesl for expt ales In m ts gelly plus in soli. An sa-Unee gasole capai ty ha bee asumed wit eport gsoln nearn expected U.S. rdormulated quaiti. A-38 19 Tao model used in *w anlys wa basd on a nar progm ped by PwojarAn witk aim, modificatoa, and on a varty of lnear pgm runs and hand calcuados. FgmW 1 pvkdes a scematc descripion of the existig fwclies. Al of te followft ca pwid, reasc p s coigurat . tx m developd X vaous estim In colaborion wiA Perojam soff, usig recenefine cos daa. Tabls 7 thogh 10 set aut dke antpated eta1gr for the various cases. A439 I . I I I I V,t ji C oz 21 Table 7 Process Facility Change Patt -OCIS ________GCASE -- _ 8SECtON - uust~is91 hArNN3 | XPANODED TERMINAL AS USUAL .fCC | FCC | , O8 D111 5 40_0 __SO 40,000 PSO 55.000 _PSO 00PSo D_w _ _ - _ _ 0.000 IPSO uS M. M. NOM No Chanq ReR No Che R *eLU - - - - 50.000183D Rprm I# M,*1 DeW.NdN D DslWsN OeIwdc °Nbotmawd ________ MeUbdDeoeedu & New Cu osbleo 8 New DBl Ooendu& New 0*O*erifl4eWN Ci 06 e t __ 200P0000IPSO 2.000PPSO 6,00 S 4MW HtM* DsboWIb_ DaeUenok Debmlmene ShtAdown lHa I I btlion sc Deboel ide te ) Conventohateow eamCUNT - I(- - LO- -5oo A vewuim 91MoUbtN ChaOe No Chnce NO Ceng oCeg - -- I va 0 1 -O. ___ __1___ 31M_ 20 S0.0003P50 FM #I9 - 12.5008 IPS 11.0 PS 20.000 IPSO Fd #I _ To Ibleb toToMatchPC Mh CC I _ Atg m #4(CMP__ _ _ to Match FMC C a4 _aam t - - -_ _I __ t Mch _ _FCC Rwhgsow f -; t 20103 301P 40 1d8) Ot 5 Otod(h) IMr FI t ,1 _ _ .-" -O0 12.000,000 sOPO -b__ # _ _ - _ - 106.000IPSo H__ _ _ _ _ - - _ 22.008PSO (g) A, erWM aeaemunL (W NofrsminFCCLh tofwdmo6daIzei@oumIL 1 'd Ine u a 0t 4 1 ceAopdon, tIrn 2 prso route ()baet hetoldee,S .*C:IC4 seOnelan oplna wela.eidIeUat paeducn opos. mwy reqidtem hydogen wilL 0) injgaaReamateCosb4 to0. 41 _smddrba lthtddenawemeaol p .otdls euWsntsI ay A-41 22 Table S Tanmage and Blerning Chan Patr ___ RMIAL As USWL FCC FM 1PD I G"Toft MUSU* be 1F0 SOOMFOO be IF 0 Add 1.000,00 Ws'.- ubllad - 2esyaW lqssm. 3c6sm. epSya(1 sa_.TWo Na hg Rom T.s O ROs T1060) ROUse 1.6t0 Add ICOj _S G.mBi _luid RwMsdTE I UPPe. (a) ELd Esa. (. t Syse Na Ch Na Chgsn Noa pg N*Chmul Add 100.000 t DsITu Mo C" New1.00OO NsWWAM MOO Nw 1l0 IMOO md0,00 Jho LNN of& ON Tem - - NswCC00 NMsIt*140j00 NW I0 IG006 m)wo Tadm ACEug 11 0 IN= U) Add I1@100.00 AW 1C0 I00M Ad. 3@I06.000 HWoEmin --Zcaymm IpSys:sOMIa 4spuysf,MM __, ~ Oamidndw . - . . . , W O S._ 2U8i0 3q8mmha rcps_Qps s -0 A6Gs _ffk swW LCA1O*sdAO*UO A442 23 Table 9 Utity and SupVort Systm Change Patt CASS SECTION ,U.NS MATCHING EXPANOEO 10oOkO .so Nbit iS 2n * e' tn bolue. - new - es. I boW ananPoonC onen FCC L am n FCC L _______________ _______________ -~~(a) - . -o fie food War O" sw No cl No 4 No" ____. W 8Zpp N pAd let esiwat - . we" br (SI EWn &Dw wT o mne 4 MW ten Suwr4te4 MW m sour n O IW e'eamtb)O.onwaftie ODOMrnb 5mw Imaiundbeilele) (P) Addd gow NOW No upor w- ROK tbMw- to OqsIflg Water U Nodiwigs New 82000 GPM New 12.000 8PM r.I eatch 5' "W._ __ 1 b) 1ww 0)_ A MSiosh_w (rid?) NsDCrN t Add eoamoesw Ai n _wowuprUa0 Nw a= _ Sh dbui,tiilwdoul Nulh ans New system New eyaten Ntw system *-Gtmd§M * oiatglm * Giajd .e * Naw s. le . New 1v. two? . Nsw m e .NOWKodrum .NOWKOdnjm .NOWKOdm _________ _________ 0~e,.*gRft Tbe hi adI Tie IRdtn* g * bRye sui . _~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~a Om.Z el V fow rum} OM I d .uesmo w .L - = __ uw _=__ ________ -L an - -m TOat1 o Uove 1M to pees to T) 1Ui, tOt, l n te~~~~~~~~~~~of r onxvnrx m 2 ar 1 02O0 tOA _ ________ __________ Oeeepsw 7oawe ::@--= No ge i _NhoWMg New pro;uco"i NowPS OM (a i anOhegas s aida flat Inlui .evelug S a*O. Nm4PUewemO efnbl plea. Neweoigtowers etomi. p)Conlnwwloia Po Sr _et ade puMs.b A-43 ]~ ~l I - 11ii' z II! XI ijG 1 0 9 - }|Z|lI3ii|-! - II A~i Sj~H E1 'I U II1 25 3.2 BASE CASE: TERMINAL ONLY 3.2.1 OUTLIN IThis case asms tat te refinery is converted to a terminal operadon with no procesing, and tat all products are impor for ditibuton In Jamaica. 3.2.2 FACUXrY CHANGES With the aeeption of systems needed to generate steam for beavy fuel oil tank heating, fire protecton, and product tranfrs, all proce and uility fcilides would be dsut down. Equipment would not be dismanded except where it has immediate sales value or may rapidly become unuble. Basic procesing equipment would be cleaned and treated for storage. Catalyss would be removed and returned to vendors or sold. Presse vel would be kept under nitroen presure. Periodicaly, fired heaters and boilers would be warmed to eliminate water buildup on unprotected surfaces under refractoy. Altemadvely, refractory might be removed and the bare metal given proective coatings. Cude oil ta would be kn out of servie, assuming no Imediate demand for products. eteaethyl lead facilities would also be tken out of service, cleaned, and dismanded, with tho lead wastes removed to a secure landfill. 3.2.3 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES A new dissolved air flotation (DAP) system woud be added downstm of the existng API sepmator to remove additional oi from waste waters. Coltcion and separation of oly water in te truck loaing area would contiu, possibly with anote DAF system In that area. AD tank water draiDs woud be conneced to the oily water sysms. Are Inside tank dykes would be made impervious to oil and water by means of dridw that would route all water from tage areas via the API separator/DAP systems before disae. TMe exstn oil recovery from wates under the southwest pordons of the refinery woud condnue with an oil barrir talled to prvent ol to the harbou. Pumping satons would be added to speed up the cleanup process. The fare stack would be taken down. A45 26 3.2.4 STAFFING S8t woud be decreased to the level essential for the ma operation-about 55 per ofthe saf level In the bune as uual ca. 3.2.5 INVENTORMS Crude Inventodes woud be processed before the shudo. Other wnntories wold be auwted to lel appropriate for a tmnl operadon. 3.2.6 COSTS Prelimiy esdmates of one-dme co (as of 1992) for converdng he refiny to termil operation are shown in Table 11. Tal 11 cuts to convert to rwmv Opatlwon - , MAoOn of 1991 U.S Dehi,- Basic Contin- Total Foreogn Exchange Cost Sector Cost gency Cost % Total Studies. Outside Assistance 0.07 0.03 0.10 95.0 0.10 Environmonl Impromen 0.36 0.14 0.50 20.0 0.10 Motal Exisng Unit 2.14 0.88 3.00 Revise Tank Farm Equipment 0.71 0.29 1.00 10.0 0.10 Staff Redundancy Payments -tDD Am U Q Sub Total 4.28 1.32 5.60 0.29 kventry Reduction LM Q Q* Net TOW 1.28 1.32 2.60 -2.71 A-46 27 Projected annWal opeatng costs for the terminal operadon are sm In Table 12: Table 12 Annual rTn*d aOpetw^lag Cskt -Na MU.s of 1991 U.S. Dobre. Cost Setor Annual Cost Foreign Exchange % Total ixed * Sablas, Wages, iBnefIts 1.45 0 0.00 o Eectricty, Water 0.12 0 0.00 * iliMalntenance and Ropair Materials 0.88 50 0.44 * Materials, Supplies 0.32 50 0.18 * Contract Services 0.48 0 0.00 * Auto/Service Equipment 0.36 60 0.18 * Taxes, Land, Etc. 0.25 0 0.00 * Insurances 0.70 100 0.70 * Demurrage 0.30 100 0.30 * Training 0.05 50 0.03 * Inspection, Testing 0.08 75 0.08 MiUcllaneous Total Fixed 5.74 46 2.82 Cost Sector $/Bbl of Foreign Exchanoe Throughput % Total Vairabe Cost 3 Additives 0.01 100 0.01 * Elctricy, Watr 0.03 0 0.00 * Miscellaneous n, Q A Total Variable 0.06 20 0.01 naddinin to e coo, the capitl cos of providing a safe, enirm ly clean worlace with up-wodate equpment wil be about $400,000 U.S. ($140,000 U.S. in foreign exchange). Ib ime disbuion of capital costs is estmated to be: 0 1992 $2.6 million U.S. A47 28 3.3 CASE I: BUSINESS AS USUAL 3.3.1 OUTLINE Jn the Businoss as U"a Sceno, itdt s aSMd thi6 eado, tle reffiery wold be upgaded to allow for an operati tate of 3S,500 BPCD and an average availabity of 93 percent, with miial Oapital cges. 3.3.2 FACLITY CHANGES The estg aphta hydrofinerlPowerormer combination would be revied and a new Powerformercatalyst iUled to perit loWr rn lengt at bier Powefmerseverides and feed raes (up to 5,000 BPCD). Modifications to th. kerosene hydrosw er and gas oil hydofn would iase te capacity of those udit by 10 and 25 percent, rwectively, which woud permt flexibity In cde selecton and improved product quaUdes. Thbse chans are how In Figure 2. Mhe rpbta hydrofiner woud produce a Poweform feed with lower sdlphur and nitogen cotent ta at pwesent. New laboratory equipment would be needed for meauring fte sitogen A new dester for procesing all crude c would be needed to keep the crude xchanrs dean, permit the se of WhOgr salt conlent rude oils, and allow crude tank mixers to opwrate c*bbuouOly to pet sludge buildup in storage nkThis woud be a dnle vessel, since the low sOt leves do not wrrant the more commo two vessel stm. Mhe crumd wodd be wadhed wit wer to sepaato th bulk of the slis; any sludge pest would also separate out into te water. The new dester wiU reduce the asb cotent of the Petrojam HFO, rsuting in reduced patclte * rom Is combutn. A48 . Fudh a Fat O_ _e _ - bo _At lt _o _~~~~ . r Sot_,___ Co~~~. -0,1 Povofrm a= C* ~ Hdrgn , 5 K'sonaurbofuel oh- ~~~. ~~~~ ~Hydiofimd Gamo 0 __ Pr-oduc __________________l FuX _____ON lEGEN Voacum - vacuum Om on Unepded GPo ophlheo or Kr from Stora *Wa 92 In-I M P/S PiU __ !~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~q 30 3.3.3 UNLEADED GASOLINE teo Busine as Umi Senrio, it h assmed th unleaded gasoline would be Imported unt sales of that product reach about 25 percent of the to, say In 1993. At that dime, a 2,000 BPSD gt virgin napbha (LVN, C4CI bomerizanton unit woud be bilt to upgrade LVN from about 70 to 84 ocae (wito lead). Ts LVN woud be used in both uladed regular (with Powerfoa at about 94 research octne and butane) and In leaded regular (with butne, a lower qulty Powefrmate, and some te Y1y ld. Ih leaded gade wold contn some uprcsd Powefomer feed In th firs year or two, but this would eventualy be eliminated, in order to maxiize Powefom fied, reuce TEL demand, and maximize hydrogen produedon for bet beroene and diesel hydrotreating. The new CA isomerizadon unit would be the "once trough" type, with a high acivity catalyst and no hydrogen circuladon. A pretreatment vsel would coain a special adsorbent to prevet any sulphur fom reachn the bomerizadon catalyst. The unit woud also bave secial ddrrs to keep water out of the LVN or the makeup hydrogen. Sine a small amount of cblorine would be continuoy added to the catalyst, the byproduct gs would pass thug a chemical wash before ging to fuie gas, to prevent e release of hydrocloric acid into te almosphere. Th production of unleaded gasoline woud necesdtate rebuilding or replacing pordons of te original leaded soline blending faltes, and cleaning portions of the eistng tankagm and 3.3.4 NEW TANKAGE A nowv HFO tak would permit easier exchng of oi for heavier conventio HPO for the aluinum nduty. A second tank midght be warntedfor tank cleaningpurposes, in which cas Its cost would be acconmodated withn the sustaining capital budget. A new 15,000 baml MDO tank would be needed In order to free T-106 for gasoline blding, its orgia service. 3.3.5 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES To elim supbur compounds from the waste water, a sour water stripper would process the waers whic ent the crude an hydrofi vese with the steam and crude. Me strippe might alo process water from the dOstr system, but ff the crude contains no light sulpu compounds, he strpe water would be used in th desalting wa, to minmize wat Gaes from e stripper and from degassing desair was water woWud be routed to the crude unit frnac fire box and burned to recover their energy contn A-50 31 Ihe API separator would be paralled with a new separator capable of bandling fite watet in the evet of a proess mit fire. A sngle dsolved air flotaton (DAP) facility wold back up the API separator to provide an oil-free waste water. The cleaned water would be dissd of fr out in the bao to maxize diffsion. All tk dains would be routed to the oily water sytem, and area inside the dykes made inmeious to oil ad wa and provide with valved drains to the oly water treatg system. The prgrm to emove ofl from gound water wo;ud be accelerated, with at least two pump ssems operatin at all imes and a barre to ol movement Installed on the wet side of tie COtaminated area(s) to prnt oi moveme to the harbour. The currnt progam for Impring dykes and oily water collecdon in the trk lading area would condmue, with a small DAP sysn on te fimal water effluen 3.3.6 COSTS Capital co have been estimated as follows: rafte 13 _usss As Usua cam CitA Costs -In Mabns of 1991 U.S. DoUs" - cost Sector Basic Contin. Total Foreign Exchange Cost geny Cost 9 Total StudWs & Prdlirnary Enoineering 0.07 0.03 0.10 95 0.10 Environmental Imroovements 0.35 0.15 0.50 60 0.30 Powerformr Revanp+ 3.60 0.80 4.40 70 2.90 Unleaded Gaoline Facillties- 5.30 1.10 6.40 85 5.40 TankMe Additions 1.80 0.60 2.40 50 1.20 Instrument Upgrade 1.50 Q 1.70 Ali 1 .2 Total 12.62 2.88 15.50 72 11.13 * mIcludes deseter at O.9 millon U.S. total cost. * Primalfyw C,CO Isomerzation unit. The refinery saff provided appreciable asiance relative to these coms, since the Powefoer revamp, ankae proam, and nst t pade were well aloog in dmelopment. Our review of crent capital prms and discussion of future small project nee indlcates ta $2.5 million U.S. should be allowed each year to prvide a safe, e ly clean, reasonably updated refiney. his concurs with the esdmate by the refiny staff, which includes hecos of contiuing to upgrade trmck loadinfciite and similar improvement. A451 32 Th tm dsributOn of capita costa s estimated to be: * 1992 $9.1 mlion U.S. * 1993 $6.4 mMion U.S. TdaM 14 AawdIBuIauAs AtaACoo OpWDtl CtS AV AMons of 1991 U& Does - Cost Sear Annual Cost Foreion Exchanoe % Total Fxed * Salries, Wages, Benefits 2.70 0 0.00 * Electrioty, Water 0.40 0 0.00 * Maintonance and Repair Merials 2.20 50 1.10 * Mtrials, Suppiles 0.80 50 0.40 * Contrt Swrv 0.60 0 0.00 * Auto/Servic Equipment 0.90 50 0.45 * Tax, Land, Etc. 0.25 0 0.00 3 Insurane 1.00 100 1.00 * Demurrao 0.40 100 0.40 * TraIning 0.10 50 0.05 * Inspection, Tetng 0.10 75 0.08 * Msclaneus il LQ 15 Tota 10.95 45 4.98 cost sector *1Bbl of Foreign Exchange Thtoughput % Total Variable Cost * Add ives 0.35^ 100 0.38 * Electricity, Wae 0.04 0 0.00 * Catalyst ChemIcal 0.03 90 0.03 * MIscellneu Q,f 10 .0 Total 0.47 81 0.38 Decresses to 0.10 In 1994 when CC, isomrwlzatlon unit installed. A452 33 3.3.7 CRUDE SELECTUON Tbe modelling Indicates a blend of naphtha and gas oil spkles in conjunction with BCF-24 crude as the optimum feedstock. Adding naphtha to the crudes and the Venezuelan spikes would maxiz bydrogen production, which would improve the operation of all three hydroretes and the new CA isomerization unit. The addition of naphtha might also help fMl up the Powerformer and elime gasoline imports, although the analysi did not explore these possibilii, or the altnative of purchasing gasoline blending components. It i8 essential that cude blending failities be capable of blending two or more feedstocks at any time, In order to mmize throughputs and to make economic use of various crudes. The modelling indicat tha the sequenal use of a variety of crudes leads to reduced throughputs, due to different pinch points for each crude. 3.4 CASE II: MATCHING CATALY1IC CRACKING TO EISTIG CRUDE CAPACITY 3.4.1 OUTLINE Thi case adds vacuum distillation and catlytic cracking units to the existing facilities, with crde capacity uncaged ftom the Business As Usual case. Some changes would be required in the exist facilities to optize crude use and integr the the naphtha hydrofiner/Pow erfom revisions of the Business As Usual case, as shown in Figure 3. A polymeration unit to convert light olefins from the catlytc cracdking unit would also be added, but alterat approaches sboud be anayzed in future studies. Sulphur comnds would be captred from fuel ge, and dlonental sulphur recovered and sold to the suphuic acid plant in Spanish Town. The catalytic crackig unit would process distillate fiactions heavier than diesel now present in IFO, convertng them to propae, butane, and gasoline and low viscosity heavy fuel oil blending stocks. lte lower boiling fraction of the light cycle oil could be used in 20 percent concntrations in ADO If the sulphur content is acceptable, and in 30 percent concentratons in Marine diesel. A-53 ~~~g k* b o n w d o~~~~~~~~~~~C Cot __nd F"cb_n _ t read Oem Fed Gi.. ~~ ~ ~ ~ UroaedRoiwcodh t Ul~~~~~~~pr op r5ew1 _ _ _ I ve -__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Cno" Fodm rnt ww lb= Usolvd~ gw _,>X r z ~~~~~~~~~~~~H" o k--_, _ _ _ _W _ _ _ _ _ KZnws /Turbo fud L KGr. AsAoyroledmoOmn Cloud ON _ m - ON ._ . iL.. ._!orn - ._- -- _ ier~h Ashf {IVP/SI IJ c ON or Keroune rnm SnrMn.Ior"c 9U * .Mvontt thaWtw at Kwoo fmnm Ifon" 35 Catalytic racking rduces the HFO yield and inceases Its specific gravity a volumtric heaig value, a factor important to the alumina Industry. It also increases the total yild of gasolne, propae, and buae In rougly equI prpodon to the reduced havy fuel oll yield. 3.4.2 EXISTING FACILITY C0IANGES Minor chage at the bottom of the crude column would allow for heavier fed; and the kosene hydeater would require some debottenecking (a new separtor and added catalyst). The gas oil hydrotreatr would use all available hydrogen, and would operato at Its maimum pressure In order to process a small amount of cataltic cracked light cycle oi along with vrin as oil. The Powerformer would be reamped as in the Business As Usual case, but once the catalytic cracking unit is on line, its load would decrease and severity incrase as more unleaded gasoline I produced. For hydrgen balancing, the purchase of naphtha for diti fee to the naphtha hydrorat would be considered. A desater would be installed at the same time as the Powerformer revisions. 3.4.3 NEW FACLITIES (OTHER THAN FOR UNLEADED GASOINE) A new 20.000 BPSD vcuum unit would produce feed for a 12,500 BPSD fluid catlytic cacking unit (FCCU). Te FCCU gasolie prodct would be teated to convect smelly and mrsive mercpas to low odour disulphides. A qC4 vt system would fee a polymerizaton unit. Tis case, which uses a polymation unit option in the economic euation, does not detemne the optmum route for processing FCC C,C4s. A route w saturation of the FCC C,C46oefs to produce propane and butae for local sale might be m inaly more atratve than exportig additionalcess gSoin. The precision of the linear progra, ad the alten crude and pre yield and stm qualities, were not accurate enough to draw any final conclusion. Such a rot would require a small hydrogen production unit, resulting in capial costs similar to those of the polymeizaton route. Tbe hydrogen plant would improve gs oil hydrotreating and provide more rapid startups after shutdowns, but would add to operating complexity. A-55 36 Tho deaed fasibility/finl eng Bng study sdould inveostgae: * Polym tio of C, and C4 olefins for gasolne, * Pol in for jet fool (with backlp hydrotreatg reqired), * Mobil MOO and MOOD processm (with bacmp hydrotein the latter cm for Jet or died producdon), * Oa sMilar C andC4 conversion options, * CsC4 saturtion for local propane ad butane sales, and * CombInaons of th above routes. For such studies, Petrojam anta a more elabore linear progrm, much licensor contact, and extensive analyses. In the Busins as Usual case, all FCC C,C4s wet to gasoline polymeridon. In this case, only C4s woud go to gasolin polymerizton, to gain on blending oca number Over C,C4 poly gsolin ad to rduce gasoline yield dightly wh Cs's to saturation for sle as propan. This latter move would require a change in Jamaican LPG pricing to promote more n use. The C4 olefn saturaton will necessitat a smal hydrogen plant but the latter will gready asist in crude unit starups and all excess hydroge will be routed to the gS oil hydrotrate to all units to proce a small mount of light cycle oil blended into ADO. This ca uses a middle distllateorletd version of catytic crtak designed for reduced gaoline producdon, and maximum light cycle oil for HFO cutter stock and icement diesel. This approach would require diffet design, catas and opetg conditions n thos used in te notma vesion The yields in ths analysis were tn from nono entla UOP Inc. semia papers. Confiden Petojam data ar consit. The catlydc cra yield stucte assumes that th FCC slin woud be undercut!; that b, that heavy aomati and olefm componens mally fud in FCC gsoline woud be transfrred to light cycle oil. New boilers and dectricty generatig facilities wold upport he new uni witi guaranteed electrl supply. Byproduct low pressw stam from to new processes would be used for dte ethanol plant, mprovng its economics. The FCCU flue gas would prvide significant high presr sem producdon. Petrojam studies show that deeccity geation through xasio of that flue gas would not be economic; firher stdy of this queston is needed. The original gasoline blendg system would be reactvated and upgaded to provide most blendig prior to tankage. A light cycle oil tank ad a new HFO blending system would ble the rde ry to cusomz InFO blends. A-56 37 3.4.4 UNLEADED GASOUNE Th8 catadyc ced plus poly gasolin would have an octan equivalent to unleaded regular. lbe refIy would ned a Cs Cs isomerizaton unit, In addition to the Powerfomer revmp, to Inprove the oveall octane for all-uleaded prduction. To minimize lead purcha and produce enough hydrogen for ththreo bydrotreaters, al heavy virgin napota would be processed in the Powefom. As unleaded gasoline sales nase, average Powefomer sverity would also increase; but the amount of lead In leaded gsoline would depend on economic bass from the startup of the isomaization uit This shoud be kept low until leaded gasoline is phased out. The facilites would give the reinery the capability of producing 100 percent unleaded fuel by 1994. 3.4.5 ENVIRONMENTAL CHANOES Tecnmologies and approaches now exi that would enable Petrojam to creat an envirnmenally acceptable expanded facility. Any changes must take Into account the Emiot lmpact Assessment Progran, dused in Section S. Any new FCC unit would require a major flare system to a new vertical cylindrical ground flare with minor releases going to the existi flare. Relief valves now going to atmosphere in the exisdng crude unit would also be connected to that system. I the aytic acking unt, pau of e feed would besonverted to coke on the catalyst. This coke would be burned off in the regenera, producing a trace of carbon monoxide (in e laes unit desigs) and some SOp. he later would be partily controlled by two al addii which e part of the SO and then rdee it In the main reactr as HIS. The 1SS woud be recovered from all fuel Ps in the FCCU and cowverted to elemental sulphur. As the FCCU would produce sgniflcant fuel gas, the amount of heavy oil used in the refny would drop to a low levd. Wth the capre of H2S from all fuel gas (exsting hayroeI tn as wiel as FCCU-rduced HFO, combined with some SO2 from the FCCU flue go), overall SO emissions would remain const or decline slightly. The FCCU flue gas would contain some NO1, but special buners on new boilers and the vacum unit heater would be desiped for low NOx production in tbose sevices. Reduced HFO use would result in lower NO, emissions. Overall NO. Is expected to remain constnt; this requires frther study. The FCCU flue gas would contain catalyst fines, and the refinery might need elaborate system, beod the simple cyclone, for fines control. Tbis also needs funher sudy. As catytic cracking unit produce a waste water stream contning vaious sulphur, nitrogen, and oxygenated chemical byproducts, this water would have to be stied to A-57 38 rmo most salur and altrogen compounds fom the gases going to the sulphur plant. The strpd water would then be bio-oxdlzed to mait sutble for discharge or for use In dhe duater. A sr tank would be esenti for ensuring effluent quality. Blo-oxidation woukct be the key to this cldanp system, and would require signifct study and attention to ceatpog detais. lhe now API separator would be much larger than in Case I. New fire wat pumps are also _esena Other wasft water treatng resions would be as In Cae I. A-58 39 3.4.6 COSTS Cptal osts for th cas have been estmated as follows: Taoo 15 PCCuCse CRpOW cb hMbM of 1891 US Doe b Cost Setofr esl Cost Cont l n. Totul Cost Foreign Exchange genmy Total Studos & Priminr Englnwing 2.20 0.80 3.00 95 2.88 Environmental Imrovements 0.35 0.15 0.50 6o 0.30 Powerfornw Revamp 3.60 0.80 4.40 70 3.08 Unladed Gasollh 5.30 1.10 6.40 85 5.44 Tankage Additions 1.80 0.60 2.40 50 1.20 Instrument Upgrade 1.50 0.20 1.70 65 1.20 FCC Project JM270 20.90 109 84 91. Sub Total 104.45 23.550 128.00 105.62 Inventory Increase ._ 0.00 ., 100 100 Total 106.95 130.50 108.12 22.5 percent contingency on basic costs. Mm loweromer Iludes d new deate, th unode gasoln facl, te imt upg an d tane ca from the pviu cas. IDventor would Inma due t te prvsion for FCC feed and gtqycle oil sta. Th FCC poje breao wol be: * Proce 80.0% * Takqp 1.7% Uilies 16.0% 3 Site Develoet (Iluding T-118 relocation) 3.6% * Ownes Cow Iem not coveed elsewhe) Totl 100.0 Aual saiing cil needs wouwld co_n at $2.5 millon U.S. level, as in Ca I, unil the ya 2000, when they would increase to about $3.3 mion U.S. The dme distnibution of capta costs I estmted to be: * 1991 $3.0 milin U.S. * 1992 $19.9 mIllion U.S. * 1993 $61.3 mMlll U.S. * 1994 $46.3 miMilon U.S. A-59 40 Oper atu ost ar stm4 InTal 16. As bfore, X coat of lhu. of cIdt hbv not been bnlued. Beettilty am a read to fool us, a oulta genea*o s amumed for 7S to SOpercentof site aWrm TaMe 16 fCC C Awa Op.wUa Cos *hA I of 1s1 U.Sa 0.DA" Cost sector Annual Cost Foreign Exchang ToW Fixed * 8*sal, Wages. enefit 3.60 0 0.00 * EltrictyWater 0.30 0 0.00 O Maintene and ReWir Meeatras 3.80 50 X.90 * Mat_ra, Supptles 1.00 50 0.50 * Cetruso t Sos 0.70 0 0.00 3 e.6ZAutorvic Equipment 1.30 50 0.65 3 TaeT . Lan, Ezt. 0.25 0 0.00 * IlSunces 1.50 100 1.50 * 9emurrewg 0.40 100 0.40 * TrainIT g 0.20 50 0.10 * lna_wpelon. Testln 0.15 75 0.11 * MIcelneu .L TOa Fixed 15.20 47 7.16 cost Stor B Of Forign Exhane Throughput % Totl Varwe Cost * Addties 0.15 ioo 0.15 * ElectIcit w 0.05 0 0.00 - Catayt Che_lcals 0.10 80 0.09 * Sulphur CredIts 0.05 80 -0.04 * MUhcllaneous Q1 Tol Vanab 0.32 65 0.21 A-80 41 3.4.7 CRUDE SELECTION 'Me use of a heavy crde slate would introduce a varlety of termedia ad product quadity concern. For exmple, there would be conen with HO sulphur, si the urrent linear progrm selects a crude ae resulting In an HFO sulphur of about 2.9 weight percent and a marga tubine faol moke poit. The FCC feod would also be high in sulphur, wih resulting high gasoline and light cycle oil sulphur contts. Another concern is that the nitrogen conten of naphtha would stress the naphtha hydrotreater. There are a variety of such ssues to be satWsfled. A less opdmum lower sulphur feedtock mix might prove necessary. Again, on-line crude blending would be essential. 3.4.8 SPACE The now facilies would be constructed from modules obtained from Caribbean/USOC sours, which would come in over the ESSO dock. The re ry would also need significant areas for laydown of equipmet and mateials, and for small shops for onsite fabrication. Ideally, these aras would be next to the new units. T-1 18 should be moved north about 300 feet to provido safety clearances around the now fulities. This would add to costs, but these would be recovered by easier construction. 3.4.9 HYDROCRACKER ALTERNATE A hydorcker-bad alterna to catalytic acklog woud produce lW quadnes of preium !er and diesel, but Its lar Incremental capital mmst and variable yield paers would maie this aluenatve uneconomic. A-61 42 3.5 CAME m, EXPANDED CATALYTIC CIACIUG 3.5.1 OUTLINE Th cme woud expand crude capacity w1iout nw crude distllation fcitities, as ow In FIgu 4. Aidb frm changes to te d c cohm, ts wodd be rougly a 50 pecet ea of Cms U, with larg new units. In ds case, howeve, only butyleme would be polynierizd, and prol would be satated witk bydrgen to produce propane for local sale. Mhe 50,000 BPCD available capaity s a prelminy esimate. Defitive aaes bav yet to be made of ie poti capacity of die etng crd column and ascated bottoms sym vit te optdmm cr date. I this cas, production would exceed local demand, and the refinery woud depend more on exportse 3.S.2 EXISTING FAC:ILITIE The bottom polton of dte existg crude column and adl bottoms andUng cides would be deotl---d to thi maxmm capacity. rTe bottom potio of dke crude colmn wodd be at 3do ,AM BPCD evel and couWd be radiy modified to suit a highSer trou albeit of a heavier crude chare. Mm Powrfome revamp would prceed as in the Bues. As Usual cae. Kose "Ydaw and Vs og hydmfiner id -W. would be much more importandin C lowerbewe cam eA. A462 Fuel Goe Fuel G0* Kerosene ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~utn -~~~~~~ ~ ~ -.n N l~~~~~~~~g vo _ CS Cs bo" pwna one w-u~~~~~~~~~~II ft. ~~~~ ~ oieialo v r",dE t ~~~~~_ I L t tE e!! _ _ 1dR[Ww&MO Ztl 0 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~Solvent ; Hydrogen n Z _ z . ~~~ ~ ~~Z _____ { Z Krosm.e/Turbo Fuel 4Ker.~ llydrofkted Kerosene! "1w a ) 03 Automofve Diesl 011 Ilydrofie eons ON (ieoe) 0 j .- _ ,Prop auto" or Disel on 1 Fuel Gas] ~,, Fuid| _> 151 PolwHe" fti ON pmvw .i _ _ ~~~~~FCC CO -D _________ 4 vacu-mUght Cycle U I£GEND _ C_ F c codd oN Exisi Lva2U otoms ot *t '/ot £rear _ New ____ ____ .......... Penetaion Aspha * ReCoVer Sulphur /S krm thes -ubA sh streoms (or sole. Nnlpmhff or I.'rnten. frma Sintaqe 44 3.5.3 NEW FACI E The FCCU C4C4s would be facidonated to provide a propylene rich stream for conversion to propane for sle, and a C4 steam for polymdzadon. An akyladon unt, a more expensive altdave, sould be corasdered In futre sd. The C4 poly gasolone would have a Wgher octa thn the poly gase of the previous case, but wold be a smallr prentage of tho crubd's yield. Tbe po onunit woud be simpler han In Case I due to more reacivity of the feed and to the presence of only C4s. If furtber ocae e m Is required, tbe C4 poIy gasolie could be hydrotreated to rais its motor octane from about 84 to 98. Such a ste-not Incrporated into the cost analysis- would also reduce the olefin content of Petram gasoines and fiuher enhace thdr quality. Mhe additon of hydrtreated poly octe would allow for a reducdon of Powerformer sverity. To contl domestc asoe quality, exports would be primarily catlydc cracked gasoine. Mle rfinery would need additonal storage to bhd te expon volumes, and a second dock to hande additonl crude shipments. 3.5.4 UNLEADED GASOLINE be approac wMl be dcal fo tatt i Case I. 3.5.5 ENVtRONMETAL CHANGES vronmental contr would be tie same as in Case II, except that the new failides would be laWer. 3.S.6 COSTS Recent Petram licemor disussons have been based on new units simila in size tc those in tis cse. Theredfre, Projam's cost analysis was used for the prinipal proces units. A-64 45 Teble 17 Expmd FCC Cm CqO CM& Aih AMi of 1991 U.S Deb- Cost Sctor asic Contin- Totl Forein Exchange Cost gVW cost % Tol Studes & Primtwy Engneeing 2.7 0.8 3.3 95.0 3.2 Envonmna Improvemets 0.5 0.2 0.7 20.0 0.1 Powerformer Revamp 3.6 0.8 4.4 70.0 3.1 Unladed Osowln 5.4 1.0 6.4 85.0 5.4 FCC Proet 123.0 26.2 149.3 77.0 115.3 Tankase AddWons 1.8 0.6 2.4 50.0 1.2 Insrunwnt Upgrade 1.5 0.2 1.7 65.0 1.1 Port Expanslon -2 -Q JJ 10.0 _ Sub Total 140.5 30.2 170.7 129.7 _U Qm _. iQ __ Toto 145.5 30.2 175.7 70.5 134.7 21.5 prcent of baes cosL A-85 46 Me CC poMect o broke down as folows: * Proces Facilties 1125% * Tankge (not In other acouns 3.0 * Utlties 20.0 * Sb DeVelopment OIcuding tak relocation) 4.0 * Owmr Cost (oect utm, spar pas, sa-up, spcI couuctio facis, et.) tal 100 % Suaini capial eds woud be the sm as in Cm II until the ye 2o0o, atr which the ew cies would d some specia aention. At tha dme, these cos would rs to $3.7 million U.S. a yeaw. The ime dtribouto of capia os s estitd to be: * 1991 $3.3 million 1992 $15.6 mUilion * 1993 $92.1 million o 1994 647mma Tota $175.7 million with a st-up 1* mid-1994. A-66 47 Tobb 19 Anna Operhg Cat for Expanded FCC Cae * hi M@of 1991 US 0.1.,,- Cost Sector Annual Cost Foreign Exchange % Total Fixed * S"ries, Wages, Benefits 4.00 0 0.00 * Electric, Wter 0.40 0 0.00 * Maintenance and Repaor Materias 4.50 50 2.25 * Materials, Supplies 1.20 50 0.60 * Contract Serves 0.80 0 0.00 * Auto/Service Equipment 1.50 50 0.75 ° Taxes, Land, Etc. 0.25 0 0.00 * Insurances 1.75 100 1.75 * Demurrage 0.50 100 0.50 * Training 0.25 50 0.13 * lnspecdon, Testing 0.20 75 0.15 * Miscelaneous 2.50 JiQ Total Fixed 17.85 48 8.63 Cost Sector $*Bbl of Forein Exchange Throughput % Total Vaiable Cost 3 Additives 0.15 100 0.15 * Electricdty, Water 0.09 0 0.00 * Catalyst Chendials 0.12 90 0.11 * Sulphur Credit *0.5 80 40.4 C Miscelbaneoos IQ,Z 10 . Total Variable 0.38 59 0.23 3.5.7 CRUDE SELECTION The crde slate would become heavkt: to flt e new unk capacIties, which are now deigned to proem lighter faiou. Hydrogeu for hydrotrag would be suplied by added Pow eoMerpA throughput Alto hydrogen needs for hydrteaters are not reflectd in the LP, this could be haled by ortig naphtha separately fom crude. Agai, Iin crude blending would be ental to opdmize capacity and crude use, fDr which provbion has been made. A-67 48 35.8 SPACE Mme now uni would require marglually more lad tan tse in Case II. Thus, T-1I18 would have to be moved, and even the cosrcton space would be dght, a shownin F rS. Figure 5 Petrojam Reiney Plot Plan ,~~~~~~~~ ; A~ilTlia a]|| . Ll +1 X sSL _*./ssQe* Da~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ A-68 49 Land noe the Petojsm property might be needed for conuction storage. The tight space would reasesafty concerns, and would neciate close collaboration with the insurace undewters, beginning at toe desig stago. 3.6 CASE IVs 100,000 BPD REFINERY *3.6.1 OUTLIE Tis case is export oriented, and involves a configuratdon capable of producing quality producu for both eport and te domesdc market, as shown in Figure 6. F:igure 6 100,000 BPD Refiney Case (Simplified) ?VW On ft~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~OegkNftee* *i 0 * . * __ . h ..~~~~~~~~40 Avtono"~~ to-d C.Bp rft__ Kv_ L .> i =1 o o T "em redo 1 t t #2 . 4 ~~~~~~~~uhot. .- ~~~~_ _ _ rSi_-____*in Fedan _ e T InSW fad CA po . A469 50 s co would mee die rig demans for preium kurw aSd dies, ad prvide fiied gsolins s e for souheas U.S. mark. This onfiguon reuies ony mid pocsn of rDsdualm s, lary in order to mfi im deadaO of eroe and diel lo HFO. All p would ta pa on he lte to ue oadvam of edsft unts andsuppo faclit. T would be less costy tan building a loo,0o PD proess cmplex an anoth sit. Ehhor way, howevr a nw dsi would be reured for t sage, both fbr now sag and f1r t dilcd by die rew proeing unts. 3.6.2 EISTN4 FACILITIES Cagswould be similar to those in tde Business As Usua cas, excpt that the kerosen 12 model. would be sht down, and the gs oil bydrotater wud be ungaded to the new 3.6.3 NEW UNfTS A new crude oil anoqJheric dtiation unit would proc about 60 percent of the crude cap, with a sngle new vacum unit procesing 1e botoms fm boh crude unis. Parallel yd and caalydc crang unis woud be used to comnert vacum s oil to pum gas and dislbte products as wl as cut stok for IPO bledn. To mininz dhe ne for st that old otheris be sold as diesel, a vlsbekdn uit woud m termay cack he reidua product fim w vwacuum uit. Ts8 would creat an IO that requires only carified oil fmm e FCC and a small amount of ght cyde oil to meet ales visst. This approach would inmcra te sulpuW ct of the heay fud oi, ad closely appoach the Perom 3.0 percentspecificado. e sma quantity of tates ffoM the vlreaer wudd be procesed in th hydrtating uni. A new Sao hydroeater wou pro diesel factos fom bot cud unIts, and proceus ht qycle il from the calytie acking ui lbb would provide O.0S percent sulp/40 ce diesel for te U.S. and domesdc mark The hydrorwa ha co-pro and the new crnde unit aphtha would be hydrotead in a neW unit. A subsequent sr wol feed a nw CC isOmetlon units which would ao procs light Oa)btha frm the oxistg splitter. A new catalydc remer for or a tea liceuod prooess) would allow the added heavy pht to pride eded oct, and would hep me ovml hydoge need. me CC sems f*om the PoWeformer, nw r mer, an FCCU ydocracker, nd some FCC Cs, would be fracdonated to produc a C stam, which would t be hydrrted to produe propane frt loca 1 Marke The0S WOuld go to pln e a hydrogen plant A470 Si fed. Mee woud be os bute for loald sa In is case tha In he otrd cases ence, some price revison mfI be ned to promote propa. Mm. C ad Cs firom ths frtoAton would be fed to an akyaon unit to produce Whi oca blendig sc Tbe olef pre wodd react wit the obue in the feds to produce a vey higb ocae, noooefinic, nomomaic blend to This oit wold use a sulphuic acid catalyst and an ai regeeon Wtem, woud mIgh be Integated with a new uphic acid phat o aV1 Jamaic needs. Whle th unit would be able to process some FCC Cj, that wud be done only as Iobn Is vaWb and then only to refoute e a solin fo epot One of the reformers woudd bave a restitdon step to ei tit b*ae frm de refomulatd eport soline. The benzeneuch cut woud go to the CA (omeiatlon unit where the benzene be converted to components of les enionmental concern. A prane-fed hydrogen plant wuW provide hydrogen to ft hdrocracbr. This configurt would cooist of proven processes and pwvie highly saeable produc. it woud be an expeive faicity but would hande smae tanker loads of prmium prducs to slecftd mrket, epeclay those with only smaul anler capabilides. A signifian volume of new tnge wold be req*re on a now ite for crude and ort product. The new utdang would include WanU dispaced at dhe refiney by new units, added udti and einmentalcontols. 3.6.4 ENVIRONENTAL Mhe 100,000 BPD clity would trst in Inased odlte SO emso due to added HFO ooowmomEFO -di e-d wo idse unles the refinery use lowe sulphur crud., but these owould be parly offse by naed s u rcovry. Sic the rfinery would be devoted mily to expot tere would be a queston of wom to Idbr1s for do SO, th efinty or the offre con_um. Ote contos wod be dmil to tm I e citalyti crkng cases. 3.6.5 CRUDE SELECTION AND YIEDS Me rfinery woud be coigured to sit an eragp of BCF-24 crude with any apil A poorer c could be used If HPO suphur lmits wee aot exceeded With hige sWlpur crudex, the d unt would rquir more c ty to prett FCCU feed and to hyrocrack to npth ad middle dstiltes. With two cnde units and hdocIgc_r/CC combiatio, a wide ran of crudes could be prcesd. A-71 52 hs cas ws e _mind outide th ine prram, sie the proes conguaton woud hae ried extensive cha to th model not cosdered appoprie for a pr nry evauadon. For th purposes of analysis, BCF-24 crude was assumed to produce the following yield: * Product Yied LXIk C3 + C4 1.9%ahm* Gasoli 24.4 unleaded premium and uneaded reglar Kero/Turbo A - 13.7 maximum, 0.05% suphu, 20 smole point Diesd 22.5 minimim, 0.05% slphur, 42+ cemne HFO 31.5*, 2.8 to 3.0% saphur Total 96.1 * Can buWm thse as fuel and increase HFO yield. C, or C, can be Increased at expen of other. LV lquid volume Unit capacity requrments were esimated as folows: Crude 100,000 BPCD Vacwum 57,100 BPCD Bydrocracker l15,000 BPCD (fresh feed, 7,600 convert to Higter PCCU l8,50 BPCD (7,400 cx hydmcracker) Reformers 12,000 BPCD Alkyation 2,300 BPCD (prduct) (C4 feed ony) C3 Sauration 800 BPCD (propylene In feed Hydrofteates * Napht 16,700 BPCD * Kerosene 14,700 BPCD * Gm 01 22,000 BPCD Hydrogen PlanQl million SCFD (with C,C4 fed + sm reycled ases) f mor mddle distillate and less gasoline wer requred, *e hydoacker conversion could be aised with decreased feed to the FCCU and allido As noted above, the alkytion uit i depennt on e FCCU, te hydroracker, and the reme for bIobune. In this case, oev, there would be a suplus, and some C, or Cs olefh cold be conidered for Incremen alkylation feedst A-72 53 Mis configuaon woud match or exceed the quaty and flebii fact of a new 100,000 BPD riny, at less cost. 3.6.6 COSTS h Ibnremenl costs over the 50,00 BPD catalyc cracklig case woud be comparable to a ngrss roots 50,000 BPD refinery; te costs would nclude a second dte and added age to offset tt displaced by new procesing units. Tbe new uit would perit signficat shop prerica n I moduar fom, altog the lg uits woud ten to lose ths co advantage. his cofiSguraon would match or exceed the quality an flexibity fcors of a new 100,000 DPD refiery, at less cost The capital costs of the 100,000 BPD ca wold be about $735 milion U.S., with a contgecy of 20 percent. These costs would break down as follows: Table 19 100,000 BPD Cae Caital Costs In MIllons of 1991 U.S. Dolars - ct Sector Cost Stdes & Preliminary Enging 5.0 EnviroUmnentalImpvmets 0.7 Powerfonat ReVamp 4.4 Intrum ent Upgrade 1.7 New Process Unit 544.9 New Tabg 40.1 New Uility Systems 55.2 Site Developmt 26.0 ely new ste for ftag PortApNon 6.5 ownr costs 22.5 Sub Total 707.0 l sento de Total 737.0 While anual sustaining capital needs would initally be the same as in the Businss As Usual ca at $2.5 million U.S., these would ie to $5.0 million U.S. In the year 2000. A-73 S4 Opertn coats for this case n projected a lows: rabl 20 Op.tb Cabs h 100,000 SP Case *h Al 1M of 191 U.S Oobv. cost sector Annual Coa Foreign Exchange % Total ied * SaarieW, wages, Beits 5.2 0 0.00 * Etity, water 0.4 0 0.00 * Maintennce and Repai Materials 11.0 50 5.50 * Mbteralsb, Supplies 3.0 50 1.50 * Contrat Servis 1.0 0 0.00 o AutolSece Equipment 2.0 50 1.00 o Taxes, Land, Etc. 0.5 0 0.00 o Insuances 3.0 100 3.00 * Demurrage 0.8 100 0.80 * Train-ng 0.3 50 0.15 * Inspection. Testing 0.3 75 0.23 o Miscellaneous J1u 1 Total FIxed 31.1 S 16.78 cost Sector *1Bbl of Foreign Exchange Throughput Total Varible Cost * Addtives 0.15 100 0.15 * Ercity. Water 0.09 0 0.00 * sCatay Chemicas 0.12 90 0.11 * Sulphur Credit 40.05 80 -0.04 * Other ,Q 1gm Tota Varable 0.36 62 0.22 Osite elecra geadon } been as_ed, wih fael charged a te deccy accoun 3.6.7 SPACE About 100 acres wold be requred at the new site for tnkage. ht site woud also have the second dock for crude receipt and major prduct eports. This wod be more area th at the rrt refiney, which would reflect Uhe iceasd ankage ad more libeal yout. No specic aite was defie, but it coud be across a chanel from the existng reery. This woid necesstt a special mul-ipel harbour. A-74 55 4.0 ETMATMIN ASE Capt almos estmate Wmr show In die precedin tables. Ibs foowing ables oudie d capital cos bases. 4.1 CAPiAL ifrIM TE W FNSIONS lMs au base cost were extded to site codions. U.S. Glf Coas or Base: Basic esdmate for pardicar factor USGC to Jamaica Where applicable, 7.5 peent added to USGC or be cost for: * PFreibt and nurn - Increment coos of consuctin equipment rentals - Extra cosm for marine movement of modues - Relted exutas (in sme liced unit cases this also covered the conversion from tbird quarter 1990 CoSIS to first quarte 1991.) ContigeDn: Contngency was added to above to reflect ims oveooked-e.g. added enginee for tie-ins. bsi conign does not contin any allwac for anyfore majee items. The may be a mior double countg in USGC/Jamalcan and cont ncy accouns, espec as Jamaic labour I more cost efficlec But also note mo prooc wus basd on lae 1990 price and units may be dsgy undeszed compe to sizs afte more dealed riew. Mhe contigecies varied with the parcuar unit or cost elment. Prcess wi condtgencies wee genrally ta as 20 percent. Freip Excage: Pryminy esimates of die foreigl exchpane portion of partaicuar co we prided for financial anayses. MTe splits reflect Petrojampe . A-75 56 4.2 CATAL ESTIlATE BASES Fis qnr 1991 base wa ammed for all esmates, with the deivaton of vaius accowns asfolows: ties - PetroP amo estmates plus nxhoe estmates of added sad Em _ Cla - Team esimates Mothball * Team estmates Revise Tank Farm PipiaS - Team esdmates Staff Red any- Team esdmates Bdadig Unit Costs - Desalter - Howe Baker USO modue cost esd- mate x 2.S - MLiscelaneous - allowance for Atmosperic Distlate and Kerosene HT revisios - Powefom - Petoam estdma adaced one year Unleaded Gasoln - CsC , dmerization uit (for LVN) - contacts wit 2 recen Instle Ta p Additons - Petrojam undt cot confirmed with tak vendor plus Imperious dylas floor allowance nstrument Upade - Petroja Port Epansion - Peojam disussiont for Casem , in-house for CaseIV weao Chanes Team esmates FCC Project - Proces * Ucensor estimates (to Petojam) lat 1990, nOt adWusted to 1991, not -Qude for mno se dference but porad for Cas M with 0.65 cost exponent Note that l.p. shows slbdty la unit may be best * Sulphur pla estmate from Canadian vendors * In Case, IV FCC/HCcomplex estm- ated on abowi bases plus ouse esmates for all odher units - Tankage - Petrm and vendor nformadon plus pipin dyke, floo allowances - UtiidUdes - team esmates A-76 i i il ' I S8 5.0 ENVIONME)TAL IMACT ASSESSME (EL) 5.1 GENERAL All reiny project should be checked for en l Impact at all ses of dv met d after sltup. Small projects with minimal Impact, such as new budWng, reqe only a brief review; while projects Involving proces, anp, and loadn areas sholdd be reviewed in depth. Each project must be a d for its pct on rogional population, sois, veetadon, and waters. The assessment process in developed oountries usually involves the commnity and a number of gvenmen agncies. Community meedngs ae valble for idenWng specfic environenmal concern, and this collaborative approach often leads to a more efficient asessmen process. Ihues _ process depends, of cou, on the availabilty of baseline air and water qality data, and on a mechanism for dialogue between reguatory agencies and the refinery. As newer data become available and dte dialogue evolves, the _ specific to Petrojam will become me refied. e irul _ protcl m*gested here are only a staring poinLhe Enviromen Impact A s Gidelines of the Candan Province of Albet, Inluded at the end of thi sec , are an example of an evolving approach to ILAs. ese GuWdines refer, however, to arg projec, such as the calytic cracling projects discud above. Smaller projects would requr a more strmlined approach. 52 COVERAGE Project mpa anot mem _ ete only to specific capital projects, and do IOt extd to product speficadon cmp. S3 ENVIRONMNTAL IMPACr MEASUREME There b a wide ange of scientfic opinion on the ipact of various poluta on human bealdt, soil, vegation, and marne blota. In the absence of definite data, _ in Jamaica are now based on limited special sudies and reports. The consulta recommends that the Jamaican Natal Resources Conservation Audwtity undertae a longerm effirt to develop data on the effeicts of specifc plutns and pollutant mies A-78 4 59 S.4 ASSRSSMENT The procem for each polutat I :sighforward: * Determie concnation profil n sung air or water. * Etmate poteta msons from te prjeo * Add potnal emisdon concetations Io current c avia dispersion and mixing models, noting peak cdonnrain under varying atmshei and plMantcodition. * Compare result c r SD establied maxima criteria, or, if no sandard exists, compare s co aoto Jamaican or odier s8udi to deemin whetherthde nw concentration is acceptable. * Where e is concern about peak or long-term concentation, iteate through above steps with revised process or emission control schemes. * Communicate results Io regulatory agencies and the commnity to enu ta their concerns have been addressed. In large projects, tis publi exposure will generally occu at two stages. In many cases, as with ozone (SO2 plus NOx), the mixture of pollun wi also need A rbny has a vadre of "fugitive" sources that bave vatying rates of rla, e.g. sline vapours from truck loading and stge tanks. Such sources are difficult to esimate, so sandard fias, e.g. tmose of the USEPA (United Statles Ei Protcdon Agency) must be used. Emergec sceaios lMm fls and power falure must be mulated at te desig stp to deem the worst case emissin rates of s epolla . These scenaiosill ao help prot workers and the local popuati SS REFIWERY-SPECIC COMPOUNDS Some pollutn which d be sssemd are: Atmosphrk S02, NO, Pardculates, 6S, Odou, Hydrocarbons, CO, C02, Hydrochloric Acid. Water A-79 60 Oils mzlphw compounds, idtogen compounds, oxygenatd compounds, salts, uiaiy" wastes, chen wastes, lbory wases. Land Frh nd spent catalysts, wastes from ank, wat cminated widh ild, maintenan_e wastes, office wastes. 5.6 OPEATIONS MHASE Al prjec must be deiged to meet or exceed es anrds t during the _ ma_the refinery muSt ath o contiuly monit its emlsdons, and tegully report to the regulatoy agencies and tO the pubUl. A-80 Page 1 of 8 CRUDE AND PRODUCr PMICE FORECAST 1. Th followin I a printout of a spreadeet which compo the Integatd crude oil and product price forecast, an essentl Iu to our product supply/refin Ivtm analyis. Since this product-crude relationship implicitly an inherent refiny margin asmption, It is probably the sing most Important body of Input data relvat to deteming the economics of rfining compaed with dirct product impoaon. The product and crude price frt is based on the assumpton of a rtun to pre- crisi crude supply/demand balanc an prce leves aftwe the rGlf conflict; ts conorm to the World Bank scenario "rapid return to normalcy," which was prepared In the fail of 1990. lbe actual crude price forecast was preaed by World Bank Commodities Division and dated November 29, 1990. It was quoted in tem of the OPEC average crude price and is shown as the first row in ho crude and product price spreadsheet. The complete dom on of this spreadsheat is provided below. Using a variety of indtry sources, with the participadon of Lagoven projections of refi marn, produa pris wero drived. The refinery margins are ten ammized wih reron to BCP 17 yields since this crude is the major crude used by Petrojam. Inheet In the bas product pre fst are gss refining magins that ar slighdy higer han the average perienced in the US Gulf Cost bowen 1988 and mid 1990. Table A6.2.1 illustrates this comparison. As indicated in Table A6.2. I, the US Gulf Coast crcig margin for BCF 17 crude inherent in the base forecast is $4.58/bard, compared with an tlmated average of $4.21/barel for actal USGC cracking maus over the 1985.1990 period. Tbe base forecast represes a real increase on average of only 9% over the 20-yer perid, compard with the aveage for 1988.90. A compion with the 1986-90 average margin indicates an asumed ncre of 32% over the aveage $3.48/barrel margin which prevailed. Mn are expcted, if ything, to Increase to levels wel beyond $4.58/barrel; to put this in pepecve, a gross margin of roughly $7.00/barel would have to be earned in order to amortze the capital and pay operating costs on a new cracking refinery, assuming a USGC location and 1991 cou levels. 2. For easy reference, the subsections of the spreadshee are labelled A, B, otc. The statg point was an ingrated forecast for several base crude oils, FOB source (A). Tbis was developed from the World Bank forecast for "OPEC Average" by using the recent historical reatonship that eised between components of the average and the average itself. For non-OPEC cmdes, hisrcal diffrentials were used to derive the prices of individual grades over the period. 3. The asumed marine freight for crude from FOB source to Kingston, Jamaica (B) is added to the FOB price, resuldtingin a CIF Kingston price for the selctiou ofcrudes t(C). The ba 1991 maine freight is assmed to be 1990 WORLDSCALE x 1.70 for Venezuelan and Mexican crudes, x 1.50 for Brnt and Nigerian, and x 0.55 plus transshipment in the Caribbean for Arab Light. The base 1991 freight for Orien was assumed to be SUS 1.40/barrel. The marine freight Is esated at 3.0% p.a. rel to 1997, and held consta beyond this over the forecs period. Ibis escalation is based on a conmud shortage of tankers with rates, therefore, in the short-medium term, based on costs of new cotuctdo These crde prices are used as the basis for our refinery feedstock costs in the invemen anysis. 4. The forecast USGC SPOT prices are derived from the base crude forecast by using the gross cracking refinery margin of $4.58 per barrel for BCF 17 crude combined with typical product A-81 Page 2 of 8 yields and Itr-product price relationsAps. The latter rdationships are deriod fiom a combnation of and forecast data Petrelenm 5. The standard USGC products (D) devat from the Jamaican quality In some Instances; the differen reir some adight price adjustmens, as documented in (E). Jmaian 9MRON leaded gasolwn Is assmed to be the same price as USOC unleaded reuar. ITo more stringentlamaican DERD kao/tbo Is assumed to cost 2 cents/USgal more than the standard USGC materi. 6. Altough the USGC 18 used as the marker bads for product picig relevant to the Kins1 refiy, the products would not necessily be sourced from there as an alteratve to domesdc reinng. T1e key I the most likely pricing basis that a cargo purchar in Kinsont could negotate, tking into aun the opportity value ta other suplier, e.g. PDVSA, woud see for each product type, Susection (F) documen the assumed differentias for the various products. 7. The basis and resultt forecast for marine freight fom USGC to Kngston Is provided a (G). TDe base 1991 rates are assmed to be 1990 WORLDSCALE x 2.00 for medium-g dirty vesels; and x 2.50 for medium-rge clean vesels. . The CIP Kingston pric for product Impo (H) reslts from combining (D), (), P, 9. The pot price forecast for each product combines (J) witb (D) and (0). t is assumed that the logi e maet for white product from the Kigon efiny would not be the USGC, which surplus inrefin. Rather, the logcal maret would be the SE coa of the US, which i in rfig defici This resul in a slightly higher neta dan USGC, less the complete frdght. As Indicated, ther are two cases for high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO, depending on whther the refiel contne to be a shiple Iydr mer (alt cast 1) or has cracking facides (Ii). In both cases, thie potewa export market is assumed to be the Jamaican ba lumina industry, which has a forecast demand well in excess of the highest HSFO production cases for Kington refny. In cm l, the rfiny couldM l ersell to ft buxite iusty and incur a debit for low heatig value, or sell into the USGC cracke feed maket and capue a straight-run credit; it was estimated that the netback on these two disposions would out wughly the same (USOC cracked HSFO, less one half freight). II case II, with cracking, we assume a sale to bauxite in competition with USGC, with the netback assuming handling and freight Kiwon-bauxite at one half USGC-Kingon fireigt. 10. The prices for product spikes, FOB Veneea, are based on disusiom with Lagoven reevt to their pdcing mecaim for each product. These spike prices are realisc etumas of the opportnty values that Venezula sees for each spiked product If sold altenately as a finished product. They are all related to USGC SPOT prices. Butane spike will be USGC+$.80/barrel; naphtha USOC Full-Range naphtha flat; kerosen USGC+$1.00/barrel; gasoil USGC-$l.00/barrel. A-82 AN=E 6.2 Page 3 of 8 TABLE A6.2.1 LEVIL OF USOC REPINERY MARGIN BUILT INTO BASE CASE PRODUCrICRUDE PRCE RELATIONSHIP YIELD USOC BASE CASE GROSS CRACKING SPOT PRODUCT PRODUCT PIW PRICES US WORTH ULR MOGAS 22.4% 29.69 6.65 LR HOGAS 9.7* 28.74 2.79 #270 12.9% 28.o 4 3.66 HS8O 50.8% 14.73 7.49 TOTAL 95.e8 20. 58 . BCF 17 PRICE 16.00 GROSS MARGIN 4.58 WRIGHT - KILtLN GROSS MARGINS USGC, AVERAGE CRACKING, $/BARREL 1986 1 86 1.50 2 4.30 3 2.60 4 2.40 1987 1 87 2.20. 2 2.10 3 1.70 4 2.30 1988 1 88 2.70 2 4.00 3 4.80 4 5.60 1989 1 89 3.50 2 4.30 3 3.10 4 3.70 1990 1 90 4.20 2 5.30 3 5.50 4 3.80 AVERAGE 86-90 3.48 88-90 4.21 A-83 I FOMECMItCf of IDTUATIU. m OIL Am PMUCT 1CES 4~~~~~~~~~~~~~s/W 0" _ l _NA fin 4 a)81UK6MM (1950 00IM T PSICES) £ 1191 192 t 1993 1994 1955 1996 r 1998 19 " 2000 2001 n 2003 20 200 20 20am n0 0w am1 * wm g 10 *OP 6l3U*1P 22.49 1894 U.69 17.16 1T.76 1846 19.44 20A5 21.726 28 2.7 22.56 22.4 .49 2b 2.4 22.49 22.4 24 11 12 WRbS is 13.--- 14 (A)WU 111INCE Is 16 W1I 24.0 20.79 18.36 16.6 19.52 20.SI 21.54 2.43 23.78 24.96 24.90 MLS 247 24.46 24S0 246f 24A0 21A4 2440 2MA40 17 523tif USCt 22.74 19.5 16.87 17.34 1T."5 18.J8 19.86 20.86 21.96 23.1t 23.03 22.95 2288 22.81 22.74 274 22.n74 22.74 22.74 22.74 1 DEll 23.52 19.71 17.30 17.60 18.44 19.43 20.46 21.5S 22.70 23.90 23.82 23.75 23A4 23is0 23.52 23.52 23.52 23.52 23.52 23.52 t9 MAR LT. 21.03 1i7 1S56 16.04 16.61 17.46 16.36 19.31 20.31 2136 21.29 21.22 21.16 21.09 21.03 21.03 21.03 21.03 21.03 21.03 20 LADOhMEW 31 21.84 18.39 16.21 1646 17.24 18.13 19.07 20.05 21.09 22.18 22.11 22.04 21.97 21.91 21.84 21.84 21.84 21.84 Z1.84 21.84 21 RESIAL 21.14 1T7." 15.75 16.20 16.78 IT." 1.55 19.50 20.51 21.34 21.44 21.34 21.27 21.21 21.11 21.14 21.14 21.17 21.20 21.23 22 CF 24 19.74 16.64 14.67 15.12 15.70 16.s2 17.39 18.30 19.27 20.22 20.0 19.94 19.87 19.81 19.6? 19.74 19.74 "i.81 1.88 19.95 23 ECF 17 16.94 14.19 2.s7 U.302 134 14.31 15.04 1S.81 16.70 17.s4 17.36 17.17 17.05 16.95 16.74 16.7 16.93 17.07 17.20 17.33 24 ISTOUSI 22.78 19.19 16.91 17.38 1T.99 U.92 19.90 20.92 22.00 23.14 23.07 22.99 22.92 22.85 22.78 '22.75 22.78 22.78 22.78 22.78 25 6AV1 U.94 1S.94 14.07 u1S2 15.1 1SA.9 16.72 1tA0 U.53 19.45 19.30 19. 19.07 U."96 18.83 a .92 18.94 19.02 1.11 19.20 26 F0CK06 23.85 20.04 17.63 16.13 18.77 19.76 20.79 21.88 23.03 24.23 24.1s 24.08 24.00 23.93 23.85 23.1 23zJ5 23.85 23.85 23.85 27 IRhUTE 21.41 17.72 15.39 1SM.8 16.30 1t.4S 18.45 19.so 20.61 21.77 21.70 21.62 21.ss 21.48 21.41 2t.41 21.A1 21.41 21.41 21.41 29 30 (S)NA*R6VE M16N1T Fe0 SO1RCE To £136te 31 3.0 iSirta t0 19s 0. oflnEsoflh 13 SUMt t1.62 1.67 1.72 1.77 1.82 1.81 1.9 1.95 I.93 1.9 t.93 1.93 1. 1.93 1.9 1.93 1.93 1." 1.93 1.9 3* A4 M LT. 1.85 1.91 1.96 2.02 2.08 2.14 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 35 LAMCOREW 31 O.S1 0.53 O.S4 O.S6 O.S O.S9 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 36 FURIAL 0.56 O.S8 O.S9 0.61 0.43 0.6S 0.67 0.6? 0.? 0.6? 0.67 A0.6 0.67 0.67 0.6 0.67 0.67 0.6 0.6r 0.6r 37 Oa 24 O.S4 O.S6 0.5T 0.59 0.61 0A43 0.64 0."4 0.6" 0."4 0.64 0.64 0.4 O.64 O."4 0.6" 0.64 0."4 0.6" 0.6" 38 8CF 17 0.56 O.S8 O.S9 0.61 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.64 0.67 0.67 0.6T 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.6 r 0.6? 0.67 0.67 0.6? 0.67 39 1313U6 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.1 o 0.73 0.15 0.78 0.78 0.7 8.78 0.78 0.75 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.7 B 0.78 0.78 B.18 0.76 40 NIAVA 0.70 0.72 0.14 0.76 0.79 0.81 0.84 0.84 0.84 0." 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.8 0.81 0.84 0.6 0.84 0.84 41 FCRCMDOS 1.61 166 1. 1.76 1.61 1.87 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.92 42 ORIENTE 1.40 1.44 1.49 1.53 . 1.62 1.67 1.6? 1.6? 1.6? 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.6 1.6r 1.6J 1.67 1.67 1.67 43 Us (C)CJf KIGTll 47 61 25.14 21.38 9.OI 19.57 20.27 21.31 22.40 23.49 24.63 25.83 25.76 25.68 25.61 25.53 25.46 2S.4S 25.46 2s.u 25.46 2S.4 48 MAR L. 22.8 19.61 1T.S 16.07 18.69 "Al6 20.S? 21.S2 22.52 23.56 23.50 23.43 23.37 23.30 23.24 23.24 23.24 23.24 23.24 25.24 49 LASOtIECO 2.35 18.92 16.7S 17.22 17.82 1.73 19.68 20.46 21.70 22.79 22.72 22.65 22.58 22.51 22.4S 22.45 22.45 22.45 22.45 22.45 50 FtlRRIAL 21.70 U.42 16.34 16.81 17.42 6.29 19.22 20.17 21.18 22.21 22.11 22.01 21.94 21.8S 21.78 21.81 21.81 21.84 21.87 21.90 St SIU 24 20.28 17.20 15.24 15.1 16.31 17.tS 18.04 1S." 19.91 20.86 20.72 20.s9 20.52 20.4S 20.31 20.3 20.38 20.45 20.52 20.59 52 SCF 17 1t.S U1. 13.16 U.63 14.2s 14." 1.1 16.S 1.6 18.21 18.03 17.84 17.72 17.60 17.41 17.54 17.60 17.74 17.67 18.00 53 I1a Z3.43 19.86 17.60 18.09 8.72 19.67 20.67 21.70 22.78 23.91 23.84 23.77 23.70 6343 23.56 23.6 23.56 23.56 23.S56 23.56 54 NAVA 19.64 1446 14.81 15.29 15.90 16.70 17.56 18.44 19.37 20.29 20.14 19.98 19.90 19.82 19.67 19.75 19.77, 19.86 19.9 20.04 SS vuRcaaS 25.46 21.70 19.33 19.89 20.59 21.62 22.72 23.S0 24.95 26.15 26.06 26.00 25.93 25.85 25.78 25.70 25.710 25.78 25.70 25.78 56 08131 22.8 19.17 16.86 17.41 .06 19.07 20.12 21.17 22.3 23.4 23.7 23.30 23.22 23.1S 23.06 2.06 23.08 23.08 23a.0 23.06 'pl sr so MMWOCTS 59 ...... 60 (0) usOC Spa 61 62 PROPANE 16.01 13.41 11.88 12.31 12.80 13.52 14.22 14.97 15.78 16.58 16.40 16.23 16.11 16.00 15.J2 15.95 16.01 16.13 16.26 16.38 63 SUTANE 19.92 16.69 14.7M 15.31 16.02 16.82 17.69 18.63 19.63 20.63 20.41 20.19 20.05 19.91 19.69 19.84 19.91 20.07 20.23 20.38 64 fR NuMNA 26.40 22.12 19.58 20.30 21.23 22.30 23.45 24.69 26.02 2.314 27.05 26.76 26.57 26.39 26.09 26.30 26.39 26.60 26.81 7.01 6S ULt OS"AS 31.43 26.34 23.32 24.17 25.28 26.55 27.92 29.39 30.80 32.56 32.21 31.86 31.4" 31.42 31.07 31.31 31.43 31.67 31.92 32.17 66 Ii lStaG 30.43 25.49 22.S7 23.39 24.47 25.70 27.02 28.45 29.99 31.52 31.18 30.54 30.63 30.41 30.07 30.31 30.42 30.66 30.90 31.1 67 JITihRo 31.63 26.S0 23.47 24.32 25."4 26.72 28.09 29.58 31.18 32.7? 32.41 32.06 31.51 31.62 31.26 31.51 31.63 31.8r 32.12 32.3? 68 30.2 AMSDL 30.00 25.13 22.25 23.06 24.13 25.33 26.64 28.05 29.57 31.07 30.74 30.40 30.10 29.98 29.65 29.88 29.99 30.23 30.46 30.70 69 GD 1XS 28.01 23.47 20.75 21.53 22.53 23.66 24.88 26.19 27.61 29.01 28.70 26.39 28.19 28.00 27.68 27.90 28.00 28.22 28.44 28.66 70 IOO 29.00 24.30 21.52 22.30 23.33 24.50 25.76 27.12 2aS9 30.06 29.72 29.40 29.19 28.9 28.67 28.69 29.00 29.22 29.45 29.68 ?1 amO 15.0 13.07 11.S 11.99 12.5s 13.1? 13.85 14.9 15.38 16.16 15.95 15.81 15.70 1S.59 15.42 15.54 15.60 15.7 1S.51 15.96 n n 74 (E)MUALTY DOiIUSEUTILS vs. tsc i5 76 POPAE an 77 0An7E aE is LitNOaS U SAHs LR 79 JETAE JUWCA 0ERD OPEC C 0.8 /OU L 00 60.2 64501 SuE 51 MSD SOX O0. 2 ORSIL, 50n 90 123. 83 aS (FE)ISST OtFIERE"Tl£LS 86 87 ALL PROUCTS EXCEPT 6064AS UICCS(uatmty-adjusted) ptuS WStC freightd for dtt _. 88 M=3; 2 CA*ESt I fULt TERNIIULIU. 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CJIL 29.33 24A S 21.SS 22.34 2.38 24.S7 2S.85 27.26 2167 30.2B 29.ff2 29 291 .40 29 w9 28 X 29.09 29.2t 29.U3 29ST 29.90 IN n00 29.36 Z5.63 20.03 21,S9 22.60 25.75 24.99 2L35 2r82 29.27 2S.ff 28.62 20.42 28.22 2?.6 28.12 28.22 WA.S 20.6B 2an9 ur s0 I 5 513 t2.S9 11.08 11.49 12.02 U1." 1 3.30 U.03 141) 15.60 5.4 IS.2 ISAS IS.0 U. 1.9 tS.OS tS.t6 1S2 tS.U 1 M O ish 11 16.06 t.5S 12.06 12.SO 13.0W U.1 11.41 15.U4 tS.43 16.7t t6.S4 16.36 16.5 16.14 15.97 16.001 16.t I6.27 M.39 16.52 129 (0)013 - CIf 01015 130 142 15920 1.7 17.49 . . .S 17.11 76.2 tT.62 U.9 19.72 20.43 11.43 21.21 20.99 20.3S 20.1 20.49 10." 20.15 20.87 21.0 21.138 132 Wu3 164.1 11.32 9.3? 90.34 1028 1.0.9 1140 12.5$ 13O4 14.54 14.35261.10 13.9 6 13. 621.60 163.1 163. 26 13. 14.81 14.0 133 10665' 3046 25.512.233 24.4 4 25.66 2 V 7.2 2 8.09.09 ME 31.46 31.73.31 35.96 30.74 30.52 30.1 30.41 3.0.5 30.77 31.22 31.27 15 I2 29.33 24oS 21.55 22.3 23.13 24.57 25.5 2.26 28.7 30.28 2. 2 29.40 29.19 21 8.6 29.80 29. 329. 294. 29.3 134 mo28.6 3.3 2.6 21592260 3.5 2.9 2.35272 9.2 2.95282 8422622 7.9 8.1 2.222845264 2.9 137 US03 15131259 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.U13301403142 5.6 1.4 1.2 1.1515041486143 5.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 136 s$0II 6.0 1355 2.0 1250 3.0 1371 4.4 1514 5.1 16.1 1.5416.6 1.2516.4 1.9716. 1615 6.2 1639 6.5 )~~~~~~~~~.139 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ &~~ 140 (1.1091153 * CIP 11363105~~~~~~" U1 lCF2U 2028 17.20 15.24 1S.71 131 17.15 1.04 1895 19.91 20.8 2072 2.S9 203.2 29.A5 20.31 20.38 3.3 .45 3.5 20.59 1SO WI? 17.50 14.1? 1.16 1A3 143.5 14.95 1.1 16.51 17.36 18.2 18.03 18 17.12 170 17.41 1734 17VA0 1.74 17A? 1 15t IEUIS 23.43 19.U6 1T0 18.09 18. 19.UA 20.6? 21.70 22. 23.91 23.1 23.77 23.70 23A3 23.S6 2336 236 2336 2336 2336 1S2 INAA 19.6 16.6 14. 1S.29 1S.90 16.10 17.56 1.44 19Jr w20 20.14 19.S 19.90 19.82 19.67 19.15 1.1 196 19.95 3.01 153 IICS 25.4 1.0 1n.33 19SP. 20.59 2t.2 22.72 2o 24.5 2. 26.058 aAO 5.95 zsas 25 78 5S.T 8s.38 58 2.LT 5.78 1S4 l1ItE1 Z2.81 19.1 16S 17.41 1U.0 19.0 20.12 21.17 22.28 23.44 23. 23.30 3.22 23.15 23.08 MOB.0558 23.08 23.0 23508 1ss C4W 28.12 17.49 15.8 16.11 162 17.62 18.49 19.43 29.43 21.3 21.21 2D.99 3.8 20.71 20.49 20.4 20.71 307W 21.03 21.1t 156 390K 26.40 12.12 19.S8 20.30 21.23 2230 23.4S 24.69 26R 234 27.05 26.76 26.5? 6 26.09 26.30 26.3 264 26.8 27. IS? am 3245 27.S0 24.4? 25.32 26.44 .72 29.09 30.5 32. 1 " 3. 33.41 33.06 32.81 3242 32.26 32.51 32. 32.ST 3.12 33.37 1SB 00K 29.00 24.13 21.25 22.06 23.13 24.33 2S.64 27.6 28.S5 30.07 29.74 29.40 29.19 28.98 28L65 20.3B 28.99 2.2 2.6 29.78 t59 CS3P 20.41 1r.9s 16.S4 17.12 17.8 18.42 9.47 20.22 21.03 216 2t1. 21.468 21.37 21.2 21.08 21.20 21m 21.38 21.5S 21.0 160 "IM8P 25.02 21.94 20.19 20.39 21.76 22.n 23.78 24.72 25.72 26.7 26.50 26.29 26.14 26.00 25.78 2S.93 26.0 2.I16 26.32 a6.47 U1t P11P 32.91 27.88 24.92 25.1 26.916 28.29 29.71 31.1 32L78 34.36 34.01 3346 33.4 33.21 32.86 33.11 33.2 33. 33.71 33.96 142 nUlIP 33.86 28.77 25.78 26.68 27.5 29.1? 30.60 32.08 3A8 3S.27 34.92 34.S6 31.34 34.12 33.76 34.01 34.13 3.3r 3442 34.37 16S a801P 31.32 26.50 23.66 24.51 2a52 26.87 28.22 29.63 3I.1S 3245 32.32 31.99 31.78 31.56 31.23 31.46 31.7 31.81 3.04 32.28 1 1Dt03 30.30 25.63 22JS9 23.71 24.79 26.00 2V.30 28.67 30.13 31.59 31.27 30.94 30.74 30.53 30.21 30.44 3O.S5 3O.7r 31.00 31.22 165 war 16. 14.02 U1S6 13.01 13.59 14.5 14.96 15.69 16.48 17.2 17.09 16.92 16"81 16.7 16.52 t6.6S 16.70 16.82 16.95 V1.07 166 OM1 -11.6 4.8.8 -7.21 7.50 -7.92 -8.42 -8.96 -9.72 -10.53 -1133 -11.15 .10.97 -10.06 -10.75 -10.37 -10.69 -10.15 -10.38 -11.00 -11.13 14y taw19 -14.62 -11.43 -9.37 n.4 -10.26 -10.st -11.60 -12.S4 -13.4 -14.54 -14.32 -14.10 -13.96 -13.82 -13.60 -13.7n -13.82 -13.98 -14.14 -449 148 13 -30.68 -25.56 -22.S2 -23.35 -24.44 -25.46 -2.02 -28.50 -30.09 -3t.6 -31.31 -30.96 -30.74 -30.52 -38.17 -30.4t -303 -30.7 -31.02 -31.2 169 g -35.94 -25.79 -22.n -23S6 -24.4 -2.91 -2.26 -28.n -30.35 -31.94 -31.58 -31.23 -31.01 -3039 .30.43 -30.68 -30.60 -31.04 -31J9 -31.54 170 81P -29.33 -24.45 -21t.5 -22.34 -23.38 -24.S7 -25.8 -2.26 28.78 -30.28 -29.95 -29.61 -29.40 -29.1 -28.86-2-9.09 -29.20 -29.3 -2947 -29.90 1n Wor -2.36 -23.a -20.833 -2159 -22.60 -23.15 -24.99 -26.3S -27Z2wZ 9.2 -23. -2S42 -28.42 -2L22 -27.3 -Z8.12 -23.22 -28.4S -248 -20.9t lit 3933 -1S.U -12.59 -tt1.0 -11.49 -12.0? -1246 -13.30 -14.6 -1462 -15.60 -1S.43 s.26 -15.1S -1S.01 -14.86 -14.98 -15.0 -15.16 -1.29 -5.41 In 173 O IFL 173 IUT_IttIISL C0R1D JD PIUROIC PRIES 176 17T ICf 24 20.23 17.20 15.24 5.7 16.31 17.15 18.04 1S.95 19.91 20.86 20.72 20.59 20.S2 O.45 3.31 20.38 20.B38 3. 20.52 20.9 178 WC 17 1T.50 t4.7 13.16 13.63 14.25 14.95 1S. 16.51 1736 8.21 18.03 17.81 17.72 17.60 17.41 T.S4 17.0 17.74 7.8 1.00 IT, IuiWs 23.43 19.66 17.60 6.09 u.72 1.r 3.6A 21.70 22.78 23.91 23.81 23.77 23.70 2343 23.56 23.56 23.56 23.5 23.56 23.56 ClSOl FAA 19.6 16.46 U.8 15.29 15.90 16.70 17.56 18.44 19.37 20.29 20.14 19.98 It.9" 1. 19. 19.75 ".7r 19. 1995 .04 J 181 Imsh 25.46 21.70 1S9 19.8 20.59 21.42 22.72 23.80 24.95 26.1 26.08 2600 2.95 25.85 25.78 25.78 25.78 25.78 5.78 .78 182 0515IE1 22.81 19.17 16.88 17.41 18.08 9.0 20.12 21.17 22. Z3.44 23.37 23.30 23.22 31S 23.0 23.08 23.08 23.0B 23.0 23.00 134 SPInES 15 *----------- 186 UUTUE 20.72 1r.49 15.8 16.11 16.82 17.42 18.49 19.43 20.43 21.43 M.21 20.99 20.8s 20.7n 20.49 2046 20.71 20.87 21.03 21.A 187 38913 26.40 22.12 1.58 20.30 2t.23 22.30 23.45 24.69 26.02 27.34 a.5 26.76 26.57 26.39 26.09 26.30 26.9 26.40 26.81 27.01 18B KM 32.4 27.50 24.47 25.32 26.4 27.72 29.09 30.58 32.18 33.77 33.41 33.06 32.81 32.62 32.26 32.St 32.4 32.8r 33.12 33.3 139 0 OIL 29.00 24.13 21.25 22.06 23.13 24.33 25.6 27.05 28.S? 30.07 29.74 29.40 29.19 28.98 28.65 28.8 28.99 29.23 29.46 29.70 19 PRDOUCT INPOuI 192 .. ........ 19 PSOWE 20.41 17.94 U1S4 17.12 1r.83 18.42 19.47 30.22 21.03 21.81 21.6 21.48 21.37 21.25 21.00 21.20 21.26 21.3B 21.S1 21.3 194 EUNI 25.02 21.94 0.19 20.39 21.76 22.n 2.78 24.72 25.72 26.72 26.50 26.28 26.14 26.00 25.78 25.93 26.00 26.16 26.32 26.4r 195 Lit u= 1 31.43 26.34 23.32 24.17 25.28 26.55 27.92 29.39 30.98 32.S6 32.21 31.86 31.4 31.42 310 31.31 31.43 31.6? 31.92 32.17 196 Lit llG4 11 32.94 2.88 24.92 25.81 26.98 28.29 29.71 31.19 32.78 34.36 34.01 33.6S 33. 33.21 32.86 33.11 33.22 33.47 33.71 33.96 19r ULS 30 1 31.43 16.34 23.32 24.1r 25.28 26.ss 27.92 29.39 30.98 32.S6 32.21 31.66 31.64 31.42 31.07 31.31 31.43 31.A 31.92 32.17 198 USLO 8IO It 32.94 27.S 24.92 25.81 26.98 28.29 29.J 31.19 32.7B 34.36 34.01 33.6 33.U 33.21 32.86 33.11 33.22 33.47 33.71 33.96 199 JETIKI 33.86 28.7? 5.78 26.68 2.85 29.1r 30.60 32.00 33.68 35.2 34.92 34.S6 34.34 34.12 33.76 1.01 34.13 3437 342 34.A7 200 10.2 LIUOL 31.32 26.50 23.46 24.51 25.62 26.07 28.22 29.4 31.15 32.45 32.32 31.99 31.78 31.56 31.23 31.46 31.57 31.81 32.04 32.28 201 MD 30.30 25.3 22.89 23.71 24.79 26.00 V7.30 28.6? 30.13 31.59 31.27 30.94 30.74 30.53 30.21 30.44 30.S4 S.7 31.00 31.22 202 5fO 116.3 1.02 12.56 13.01 13.59 14.25 14.96 15.69 16.48 17.26 17.09 16.92 16.81 16.70 16.52 16.45 16.70 162 16.95 1r.07 20 MPALT 2618 Z5.43 21.61 22.31 22.95 23.6r 24.4 25.26 26.13 26.99 26.80 26.61 26.49 26.37 26.18 26.31 26.3? 26.S1 26A4 26.78 II 20 PUAU 11.61 8.8 7.21 7.so 7.92 8.42 6.96 9.72 10 11.33 111S 10.9S 10.81 10.75 10.57 10.69 10.75 10.58 11.00 11.1 I 301* 14.52 11." 9.3 9.74 10.25 1O." t1.60 2.54 3.54 14.4 U.32 14.10 1.96 13.62 13.66 1.75 .82 13.98 14.14 U.29 9 SAA 3O.6 23.6 Z.S2 23.35 24.4 25.68 2.02 28.50 30.09 31.6 M.31 30.96 30.74 30.2 30.17 30.41 30.53 30.77 31.02 31.2 a10 &TIM 30.94 2S.19 22.73 23.56 24* ID.9 2.26 28.7 30.35 31.94 31.58 31.2 31.01 30.77 30.43 30.68 3n.8 31.04 3129 31.S 4 Il 0.3 2OML 9S.3 24.4S 21.55 22.34 23.38 24.57 25.5 2.26 28.7 30.28 29.9 29.61 29.40 29.19 28.26 29.09 29.20 29.4 29.7 29.90 21 no 28.36 263 20.83 21.59 22.60 23.7s 24.99 26.35 270 29.2 28.9 2362 23.42 20.2 27.8 2.12 5.32 W4S .68 20.91 213 MM0 I 13.1 12.S 11.00 11.49 12.02 12. 1.30 14. U4.S2 15.60 54 1S.26 15.15 15.04 14.2 14.98 15.04 15.16 1.2 1A 214 WM0 t 16.0 13.55 12.06 12.S 1.or 1.71 14.41 S5.14 15.95 t6.1 U.S4 136 U.25 16.14 1S. U 16.1 1." WV U3 16.52 .~* -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I ANNE ?e3 Page 1 of 15 CASH PLOW MODEL - JAMAICA PERMOLEUM PRODUCT StPPLY/REFWNING INVESTMENT CASES 1. The obJecdve of the cashflow modelling Is to examine a number of product supplylrefing configuation options for Jamaica in order to determine which configuration provides Jamslca's finisbed product needs over the next 20 yeas at the lowest total net cost. 2. The following pages are a prlntout of the cash flow spreadsheet model (REPPLAN.WK1) runs which were correspond to the base case inputs on dmand, price, capital investment and operating costs. The spreadsheet row numbers are shown and used below as Identifiers In the documentation. 3. 'Me first component comprises a Jamaican product demand forecast(l 1-19), which Is input from DEMAND.WKI. This forecast is a common input to all supply cases - BASE terminal and the three altmrate refng cases 1,11 and 111. It should be noted that alternate refining case IV, Involving an expansion of facilities which would exceed the spare land at existing site, was developed and estimated to conceptual quality only. It was evaluated based on one set of yields and margins prevaiing over a 15 year period and was not incorporated into the detailed yearly cash flow evaluation. 4. As indicated there are three refinery balance/operations data sets, one for cach of the three refining alternates. By way of illusaion for case 1, the crude run volumes are rows 32-37, spikes run 43-46, tot runs to still row 50, capacity utilization row 53, production 57-64, individual product yields rows 71-78, total recovery row 80, product imports rows 8490 and product exports rows 96-102. The same data set for cases II and m follow those described for case I. The crude and spike imports, product imports and product exports are all data linked from REFTRAD.WKI which in turn is generated from the raw LP outputs for each set of cases. 5. The refinery LP was run on the basis of minimizing the net marginal cost of supplying the Jamaican product demand, with freedom to import sever crudet, spikes, finished products as well as to export product all at the prices documented in ANNEX 6.2. In cases II and m It had the freedom to select the catalytic cracking capacity it wanted based on this cost minimization objective. The LP objectve fuction incorporated crude and product import costs plus marginal operating costs of the refinery less any revenue; on product exports. 6. Rows 281 through 320 comprise a complete data range linkage with PRlCE.WKI, the nnational crude and product price forecast spreadsheet as documented in ANNEX 6.2. 7. Rows 328 through 358 comprise the cash flow summary for the BASE terminal case. The product costs are derived from a multiple of demands and product import prices. The fixed and variabl operating costs are input through a linkage with OPCOST.WK1. The capital investment is Input through a linkage wih CAPITAL.WK1. The total cost cash flow for this case is summed as row 358. A-89 o1 mNEm Pag 2 of 1S S. n the efning emu, IlusItti with case I, the tota ah flow smany secon Is row 365 hough 423. TMe total cost cash flow summed for this cs s row 419. hIhs Ii subtracted from row 358 to derve the incmental cash flow beft of refiing I over terminallIAg. Tbis Is shown as row 420. e Ital rat of ren and net present vWalue of the cash fow at lS% shown In rows 422 and 423 rspctdvey. A-90 191*04-25 2 04to0 HI JAMICAEN ME SECTOR STRTY A INESTM FUJIII STIJY S PEIRm I CtOR nsALYSIS 5 LOU OEMIU U BEflNERT CAS FLO MIODEL * JAMAICA IDRM PROCT SUPPIT/REFININtO IESTMET CBSES 6 tWLM RIC DATACDEMAND*POTIItORTSEXlPORTS) tX MILLM SARES 8 1991 19 1993 1994 1995 1996 19" 1999 2000 2001 2002 200 200.4 200 20 200? 200B 2009 21 9UFIEt1tEIWOW tt PROPAIIE 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.13 0.16 0.1? 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.26 12 1UtA1E 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.;8 0.51 O.S3 0.% b.S9 0.62 0.65 0.68 0.71 0.75 0.79 0.83 0.8? 0.91 0.96 1.00 1.05 13 MGAUS, LEADED 0.93 08f 5 o.? 0.68 0.58 0.48 0.37 0.25 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14 MU$AS. UILEAOEO 0.10 0.21 0.33 0.45 0.58 0.72 0.86 1.02 1.18 1.35 1.39 1.43 1.47 1.S2 1.56 1.61 1.66 1.71 1.76 1.81 1S XEIIOtTURO 0.84 0.86 0.89 0.92 0.95 0.98 1.02 1.05 1.09 1.12 1.16 1.20 1.24 1.29 1.33 1.38 1.42 1.47 1.53 1.58 16 AUTO DIESEL 1.35 1.51 1.65 2.14 1.69 1.68 1.71 1.62 1.69 1.70 1.81 1.93 2.06 2.11 2.15 2.31 2.48 2.54 2.60 2.67 17 MARtNE DIESEL 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.51 0.52 0.53. 0.54 0.56 0.5? 0.59 0.60 18 NEAVY FUEL OIL 4.55 4.71 4.85 4.56 S.10 S.t3 5.32 4.74 4.62 4.00 4.11 3.46 3.5? 3.73 3.90 3.2? 3.35 3.54 3.74 3.91 19 ASPALtT 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.29 0.31 0.33 20 ...... .... ............ ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ............ .I........ ...... ...... ...... .... ........ 21 TOTAL 8.75 9.18 9.58 9.90 10.10 10.24 10.58 10.03 10.11 9.63 10.00 9.62 10.01 10.38 10.76 10.4 10.88 11.33 11.78 12.23 22 . 24 BASE CAsE IMT ALL TURWON REFINERY TANKS AS TERINAL 25S.-......--.............-----..-............................................... 26 91-04-25 2? 04:03 PR 28 ALT CASE I -REf ISIXG, MINIMW INSTMEVT - WSINESS AS USULt 29 ---*--*--.-................-........................... 30 CAUE 1m1 199 1992 1993 1994 199 199 199? 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 205 2006 2007 2D08 2009 2010 31 .......... .... .... .... . .. . .... ..... .... .... . .... .... .. . . . .. .. ...... .. .. . ... ...... .... .... ...._ 32 8CF 24 5.82 0.00 0.00 6.37 8.34 8.40 8.72 7.79 5.47 4.9? 6.95 5.91 5.60 0.00 0.00 0.20 4.30 6.16 6.53 6.38 33 CF 1? 0.00 2.59 2.74 0.00 0.00 OM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.38 4.30 3.96 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 34 ITISS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.38 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.OD 0.00 0.83 35 MAYA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36 FORCAD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 37 ORItENTE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3 l .... .... ..... .... .... .... ..... .... --..--.-------... .... .... .... .... .... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... 39 TOT UE CRON5 5.82 2.5 2.74 6.53 8.34 8.40 .72 7.n9 8.85 7.S4 6.95 S." 5.60 4.38 4.30 4.16 4.88 6.16 6.53 7.21 I 41 t'M O 8JTE 0.09 0.06 0.0? 0.0o 0.1 0.11 0.11 0.11 .0? 0.08 0.11 0.o 0.10 0.10 o.1 0.10 0.10 0.11 O.1 0.o 44 3A*9311 2.01 1.46 1.50 0.79 0.9? 0.9? 1.40 1.66 1.15 .4? 1.62 2.01 Llr 2.74 2.72 2.6S 2.12 1.!5 1.71 16. 45 an0 0.60 0.0 0 .00 0.00 6.00 0.0 0 0.60 0.00 0 .00 0. 400 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 45 GAS OIL 1.24 2.36 2.54 2.31 I.S3 1.33 1.31 1.39 0.94 1.31 1.J6 2.24 2.50 3.1 3.28 3.49 3.29 3.15 2.95 2.26 4r - ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... .... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ... ._ ... ...... ... . . ..._ 48 TOTAL SPICES 3.3? 3.88 4.11 3.19 2.41 2.41 2.91 3.16 2.16 2.86 3.78 4.35 4.67 6.02 6.10 6.24 5.52 5.00 4.77 4.02 4t ...... .. .... .. .... .... .. ...... .. .... .. .... .... .. ...... .. .... .. .... .... .. ...... .. .... .. .... .... .. ...... .. .... .. .... ... .---.- .------------ 50 T VA to STILL 9.19 6.48 6.86 9.56 10.75 10.81 11.63 10.94 11.02 10.40 10.75 10.26 10.27 16.40 10.40 10.40 10.40 11.1T 11.30 11.23 Si CAPCIT 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 U.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 2 UTIIUATION 70.90 50.0X 52.90 73.83 02.I 83.43 89.3 04.53 05.90 80.33 82.8 79.23 79.23 80.32 80.21 8OJ Z 8L.21 87.2W 86.63 53 54 56 ------ s? PNE 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.0? 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.0 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 Sl EUtuE 0.27 0.14 0.14 0.25 0.29 0.30 0.33 0.31 0.23 0.23 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.27 0.30 0.30 0.29 59 NOGAS 2.01 1.07 1.10 1.13 1.49 1.50 1.90 1.93 1.90 t.94 1.93 1.95 1.95 2.02 .99 1.95 1.86 1.75 1.76 1.8? 60 gmoTURO 1.U 0.86 0.89 1.22 1.17 1.1? 1.28 1.26 1.48 14 1.39 t.44 1.49 1.29 1.33 1.38 1.58 1.69 1.6S 1.S8 61 AO DIESEL 1.35 1.S1 1.65 2.16 1.9 1.68 1.71 1.62 1.69 1.70 1.81 1.93 2.06 2.11 2.15 2.31 2.48 .54 2.60 2.67 62 MINllE bEtEL 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.4 0.45 0.6 0.47 0.48 0.49 O.S1 0.52 0.53 0.S4 0.56 0.57 O.4 0.06 63 fEAW Ant oIt 3.49 2.S 2.28 3.92 5.10 S.13 S.32 4.74 4.62 4.00 4.11 3.46 6 3.52 3.43 3.5 2.89 354 3.Y74 3.91 " 44 1 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.29 0.31 0.33 65 ...... ..... ...... ...... .... ...... ...... ........... .... .... .... .......__.. ...... ... ...... 66 TOTAL 8.77 6.23 6.60 9.23 10.35 10.42 11.20 10.54 10.62 MO. 10.28 9.83 9.83 9.96 9.96 9.96 9.9? 0.73 10.86 10.77 67 60 69 135 70.--- 71 OANI 0.43 0.3S 0.33 0.4 0.5 0.53 0.53 04" 0.6 0.3 0.5X OS,5. 0.5X 0.33 0.3X 0.43 O.S 0.5S 0.42 0.53 7a sm 3.M 2.1 2.13 2.6" 2.7X 2.7X 2.90 2.L8 2.1X 2.33 2.82 2.83 2.8 2.2X 2.2 2.2X 2.4 2.61 2.73 2.43 73 NAS 21.90 16.43 16.90 11.8X 13.90 13.9X 16.43 17.73X 1.33 18.6X 18.90 19.03 19.03 19.4U 19.23 18.83 17.9 1S.63 1S.6X 16.43 74 K13011180 12.43 13.43 13.03 12.73 10.9X 10.90 11.83 11.53 13.43 13.90 12.90 14.1% 14.62 12.43 12.8 13.2S 15.21 15.3X t4.64 14.13 75 AWO 01ESEL 14.73 23.33 24.13 22.4 1S.7X S.6 14.73 14.= 1S.33 16.3 16.83 18.83 20.03 28.33 20.73 22.23 23.5 22.73 23.03 23.83 76 KINlE WIESL 3.8, S.62 S.63 4.33 3.9X 4.00 3.83 4.13 4.21 4.5X 4. ' 4.83 4.9X 5.0 5.1X S.21 5.4S S.13 3.9X 0.6X 77 KA" NU OIL 38.03 33.23 33.33 41.03 47.4 47.S 45.83 43.3X 41.90 38.43 38.33 33.73 31.83 33.90 33.0m 31.33 27.8x 31.73 33.1 34.8X 70 AIlTl 1.23 1.83 1.83 1.43 1.33 1.43 1.3X 1.53 1.6X 1.83 1.83 2.03 2.13 2.21 2.42 2.52 2.7 2 2.43 2. 2.9X 79 ...... .. .... .. .... .... .. ...... .. .. .. .... .. ...... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... .. ..... 80 TOTAL tECO1 9f.43 96.21 96.21 96.4X 96.33 96.4% 96.33 96.33 96.42 96.42 95.83 95.83 95.83 95.73 95.83 9S.6S f5.91 91 96.13 95.9 II 82 IPOQn 1991 192 1993 1994 1995 199 1997 199 199 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200? 2008 2009 2010 $4 PROPAXE 0.05 0.09 0.09 0 08 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.06 * 0.09, 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.20 85 SWVIAE 0.15 0.30 0.32 0.24 0.22 0.24 0.23 0.28 0.39 0.41 0.38 0.42 0.46 0.55 0.59 0.64 0.4 0.66 0.70 0.7? 86 NoGAs 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 SY KEW/UMIII 0.00 0.00 £1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 as AUTO DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 69 ARmDINE SeLt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.54 90 USAVY FEL. OIL. 1.07 2.56 2.5? 0.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.21 0.46 0.02 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 91 ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ....... ...... . 92 TOTAL. 1.26 2.95 2.98 0.96 0.29 0.31 0.31 0.36 0.47 0.51 0.49 O.SS O." 0 .92 1.23 0.84 1.V7 0.95 1.05 1.51 94 ERPURTS 96 PROPAJI 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 97 601AM! 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0A0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 96 No=A$ 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.30 0.67 0.66 0.59 0.59 0.54 0.52 0.47 0.50 0.43 0.34 0.20 0.04 0.00 0.05 99KERtojT138 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.22 0.19 0.26 0.21 0.39 0.32 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.21 0.13 0.00 100 AUTO DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 101 URINE1 DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 102 HEAVY FUEL OIL. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 103. . .. . . .., . .. .... .. . . .. . . . . .. .... . .. . ..... . .. . . ... .. . .. .. . .... .. 104 TOTAL 1.28 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.54 0.49 0.93 0.67 0.96 0.91 0.77 0.76 0.73 0.50 0.43 0.34 0.36 0.2S 0.13 0.05 '105 ~~~~~~~~1M~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1OI 91-s1-21 0I4 l ALI It -fEO. II1, MIIR AvU 18W1TM, FC OW U Con EMICI 110 III CNNi IPA 199 1992 1993 199 1995 1996 1997 1998 moac 2 m 2 m 6 m o M ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1991 200 201 200 2OO03 2004 2005 2006 2007 200 2009 2010 *t2 *--v --*- .-- - --....... .... ... .... ... .... ... .... ... .... . .._. ..._. .... ... .... . ... .. . .... . .... . .... .. ... 13 KC 24 5.12 0.00 0.00 637 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 114 CIT1 0.00 2.59 2.74 0.00 5.03 5.39 S.3n 4. 4.1 4.16 4.16 4.96 4.69 4.56 6.8 4.16 4.16 3.03 4.16 3.65 115 s6n 1.0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.56 6.72 6nZ 7.96 6.76 8.76 8?6 7.43 7.88 8.09 4.06 86 8.76 9.0? 8.76 9.V 116 NAVA 0.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 117 fUCADOS 0.a0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 118 l0t53tE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.QO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 199 --- .- .. ..-. ...... ...... ............ . _ ,, . 120 t0 LU CNN 5.82 2.59 2.74 6.37 11.89 12.11 12.11 12.60 12.91 12.9 12.91 12.39 12.57 12.65 10.91 12.91 12.91 12.92 12.91 12.92 121 122 SPWIES RUN 123 .*- 124 UTDI 0.0 0.06 0.07 O.0W 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.09 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 125 AP31P0A 2.0 1.46 1.50 0.19 1.00 0.78 0.78 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.4 0.25 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 126 KM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12J GAS OIL 1.24 2.36 2.54 2.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 *28 ...... -......... ... ..... .... .... .... .... .... ......,,, ,,,,_,,, .. ........ ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ,,, .. ...... 129 TOTAL SPIKES 3.37 3.88 4.11 3.19 1.05 0.84 0.81 03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.56 0.38 0.30 2.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.01 * 131 tM TO STILL 9.19 6.48 6.86 9.56 1.5 1.9 1.9 12.95 12.95 12.95 12.9S 1.9 1.9 12.95 12.9 12.9f 1.9 12.95 12.95 12.95 132 CAPACITY 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 133 UtILIZATI1O 70.9Z 50.02 52.9X 73.82 99.9s 9.92 99.92 W9.9X 100.0O 100.5 100.0X 99.92 99.92 99.92 99.92 100.00 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 134 FCC CAP 31SD 13S 136 PUiMUTION 137.us IS3 .......... 13" PROPANE 0.06 0.02 0.32 0.04 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.09 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 139 SUUAME 0.27 0.14 0.k4 0.25 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.J0 0.18 0.18 0.25 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.15 t40 "WCAS 2.01 1.07 1.10 1.13 3.2 3.61 3.81 3.72 3.67 3.67 3. 3.M7 3.74 3.72 3.28 3.68 3.68 3.73 3.69 3.76 141 uEMOX0n 0 1.14 0.86 0.89 1.22 1.56 1.36 t.36 1.41 1.41 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.42 1.33 1.41 1.41 1.42 1.40 1.43 142 Au0 DIESM 1.35 1.Sl 1.6S 2.14 1.69 1.8S 1.84 2.09 2.28 2.26 2.29 1.96 2.06 2.11 2.15 2.31 2.48 2.54 2.59 2.45 143 HARShh DIESEL 0.3S 0.36 0.38 0.41 0.4 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.4 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.51 0.52 0.49 0.50 0.35 0.37 0.25 O.S5 S44 WAVY FUK OIn 3.49 2.1S 2.28 3.92 4.72 4.15 4.15 4.56 4.44 4.43 4.31 4.S0 4.41 4.36 4.83 4.21 4.19 4.04 4.14 3.91 145 ASPtUAI 0.1t 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.29 0.31 0.33 146 * --*--.-..-. ..-:. ...... .... ...... ....... _. ...... ...... ...... .... .... ...... ...... .... ...... ...... ...... ...... ... 147 TOTAL 8.77 6.23 6.60 9.23 12.6? 12.68 12.6 11 12 . 2. 7 12.612.6S 12.65 12.6 12.67 12.67 12.6? 12.67 12.67 12.66 1H9 1ie PPA 0.C .M 0.31 0.41 0.11 0. 0.9J 1.01 1.0S 1.0S1 10 1.0 1.0S 1.0S 0.73 1.0S 1.0S 1.01 1.01 1.LI 1o IIAMIS 3.01 2.11 2.1 2.6 1.61 1.6 1.4 1.2Z 1.2X 1.23 1.51 1.4S 1." 1.91 1.2S 13 1.21 1. 1.1S 154 "1101 21.91 16.41 16.O 11.8 29. 29." 29.4 1LU .32 2L323 28.4X ".11 28.91 28.11 25.31 28.4S 28.41 28.8 28. 29.A 155 OTImO 12.4U 13.41 13.01 12.71 12.01 10.L 101 10.9 10.92 10.910.91 ".91 10.91 10.9 10.L3 10.9 10.9S 10.9 10. 11.0S 56 AUTO DIESEL 14.11 23.31 24.1 22.4X 13.11 143 14.32 16.1% 17.65 17.51 17.11 15.11 1S. 16.31 16.61 17.81 19.11 19.61 20.0 1L91 1s5 MIWnE DIE01L 3.83 5.6 5.6. 4.31 3.21 3.31 3.4X 3.52 3.5 3.62 3.11 3.8 3.91 4.01 3.8 3.91 2.n1 2.X 2.01 3.91 158 MAWI FUEL OIL 38.03 33.21 33.3X 41.0X 36.1X 36.11 36.7X 35J2 34.3X 34.2X 33.3X 34.7X 34.11 33.71 37.3 32.5 32.3 31.21 31.9X 30.23 159 ASMlt 1.21 18 1.82 1.41 1.11 1.12 1.21 1.31 1.31 1.41 1.S 1.6" 1.7 1.81 1.91 2.01 2.11 2.31 2.4 2.61 160 ...... ...... .... ..... ...... ...... .... ...... ...... .... ....- ...... ....... ...... ...... ...... 161 TOTAL KECWER 95.4X 96.21 96.21 96.62 9s.9s 97.91 98.02 98.11 96.21 96.31 97.71 9r.71 97.71 97.81 97.81 97.81 97.82 97.8x 97.81 97.71 16 16 t"PORTS 1991 1992 19 1994 1M9 1996 19 199 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2OS 2006 200r 2008 2009 2010 166 PROPANE 0.05 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 167 WUIANE 0.1S 0.30 0.32 0.24 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.41 0.46 0.49 0.52 0.52 o.s7 0.61 0.58 0.71 0.75 0.80 0.4 0.91 168 MM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 169 IKEROTIIB 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.15 170 AUTO DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.23 171 NARINE DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.21 0.21 0.34 0.10 ' 172 HAW UEL OIL 1.07 2.56 2.57 O." 0.38 0.39 0.57 0.18 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 In . . ---- . . .- --. .... .. . ..d. .. ... . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . . .. . .. . .. . . . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. .. ................................ 174 TOTAL 1.26 2.95 2.96 0.96 0.69 0.72 0.94 0.61 0.66 0.S2 0.56 0.57 0.63 0.68 0.73 0.84 1.08 1.18 1.44 1.51 176 EXPORTS 177 -- 178 PPAME 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 179 BUTANE 0.00 oo o.000 o.oo 000 000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 180 MO 0.9" 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.66 2.61 2.S8 2.4S 2.36 2.32 2.28 2.34 2.26 2.20 1.72 2.0? 2.02 ,..02 1.93 1.94 181 KEROITWIRO 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.61 0.37 0.34 0.36 0.32 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.17 0.13 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 102 AUTO DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.14 0.47 0.59 0.57 0.49 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 183 MARINE DIEStL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 184 IEA FUEL OIL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.4 0.20 1.03 0.84 0.0 0.93 0.94 0.84 0.50 0.40 0.00 185-** *-...... -- ----..... ............. ...... ............. ...... ............. ............. ....................._..... _..........,,,....,_,,._,,.,,,.,_, 186 TOTAL 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.30 3.2V 3.16 3.05 3.28 3.28 3.62 3.22 3.61 3.27 2.96 2.65 3.05 2.86 2.52 233 1.94 1n II> 190 91-04.25 ALI CanIII3 -UINIUIU, ^3EMN 35w81Ws1 1036 feeKC a 91 flaw ugTtLCEuC/AP,uuOu 191 5"s0 PM------- 19 ..... .... .... . . .... . * . .. .... *.** 0.. .. .... .... .... .... 196 KCr 24 7.42 0.00 7.69 7.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.os t97 6C IT 0.00 5.55 0.60 0.60 10.07 1307 12.40 10.19 7.10 7.15 10.71 12.14 12.36 12.14 14.13 11.29 10.61 7.40 5.41 5.33 196 12T11W0 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 6.00 6.61 2.117 7.69 6.01 0.87 5.99 5.7? 5.99 3.97 6.34 7.53 4.34 1.40 2.43 199 NAVA 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.6 .00 0.00 0.00 as 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00GA 0.00 60 0.00 20 U01A06 0.06 0.06 0.950 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 20 CRIME 0.00 0.00 0C00 0.00 6.07 6.0? 5.12 5.79 3.19 4.21 6.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.43 11.36 10.42 203 TO 1101m 7.42 5.55 7.89 7.41 18.14 18.14 18.12 13.14 18.18 16.1 18.14 18.13 1812 16.13 MID1 18.1 18U.14 118.17 18.9 18.19 201 207 UVIAnI 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.10 0.0? 0.07 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.11 0.11 0.0? 0.05 0.0S 2096 NAPIII 1. 2.6 1.64 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 209 CM1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.OD 0.00 0.00 210 "aS OIL 1.31 2.44 1.69 2.40 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 212...... ...... ...... ... ...... ...... ...... 1.. ...... ...... ...... 212 TOTAL 07311 3.15 5.19 3.44 4.16 0.10 0.10 0.12 0.10 0.0? 0.07 0.1 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.11 6.11 0.07f 0.05 0.05 214 TOT MMU TO 31311L 10.57 10.74 11.33 11.57 18.24 18.24 16.25 18.24 18.25 16.24 18.24 18.25 18.24 11.25 18.24 18.24 18.25 18.25 16.24 18.24 21S CAPACUiT 12.96 12.96 12.96 12.96 18.25 16.51.25 18.25 18.25 16.25 16.25 18.25 18.25 18.25 18.25 S 16.25 18.25 18.25 18.25 18.25 216 WVILIZA1I00 '81.51, 02.91 87.41 89.32 100.03 100.02 100.01 100.01 100.01 100.01 100.02 100.01 100.01 100.0 100.01 100.01 100.01 100.01 99.91 100.01 217 fCC CMP NB10 218 219* 220 221 93uudONo 191 1992 199 199 1995 199 199? 199 1999 200 200 200 200 200 200 2006 200 2006 200 201 223 PUOPAlE 0.05 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.1? 0.18 0.1 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.16 224 SlTANI 0.31 0.24 0.32 0.32 0.25 0.25 0.31 0.26 0.23 0.22 0.27 0.34 0.34 0.33. 0.37 0.32 0.31 0.21 0.15 0.15 225 MM04 1.85 1.93 1.61 1.77 4.21 4.21 4.05 4.31 4.8$ 4.80 4.20 4.33 4 .31 4.34 4.07 4.46 4.55 4.60 4.6.7 4.73 226 11301U83 1.56 1.39 1.68 1.73 2.28 2.28 2.04 2.10 2.17 2.25 2.32 1.81 1.65 1.64 1.56 1466 1.66 2.41 2.62 2.76 227 AUTO DIESEL 1.3 1.51 1.65 2.14 2.12 2.11 1.71 2.24 2.97 2.67 1.61 1.93 2.06 2.11 2.15 2.31 2.46 2.54 2.60 24? 22 MINE3 03131L 0.3S 0.36 0.38 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.51 0.52 -0.00 0.54 0.56i 0.S7 0.59 0.60 229 NE1W FIIEL OIL. 4.55 4.71 4.85 4.56 8.16 8.16 8.95 6.00 6.69 6.7 80.38 8.54 8.58 8.49 9.32 8.14 7.06 7.02 6.57 6.48 230 APAUT 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.29 .0.31 0.33 232 TOTAL. 10.13 10.29 10.8 11.12 17.72 17.73 17.10' 17.5 17.70 17.73 17.83 17.8* 17.85 17.86 17.83 17.62 17.83 17.86 17.87 17.88 f 235 71110 236 237 "MAN 03.5 0.31 O.SX O.5 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.81 0.8 0.91 0.91 1.0 1.01 1.ts 041 0. 0.8 0m 0. 0.91 238 00A*E 2.9X 2.2X 2.91 2.81 t.4" 1.4X 1.7X 1.41 1.2X 1.21 1.5X 1.01 1.9X 1.8X 2.1 1.8 1.71 1.21 0.1 0. 239 0 1t.51 1t.9x 16.01 1S.3X 3.1Z 2.1X 22.21 3 28.2 26.31 23.0 3U. 23.6 23.8 22.3 .4 24.91X 2S. 2.6 A. 240VA I0/11 0 14.51 12.9 14.81 14.9X 12.51 12.51 11.21 11.52' 11.91 12.31 12.71 9.A 9.01 9.01 8.51 9.12 9.1 13.21 15.51 IS.1 241 A20 OIEWL t2.81 14.X 14.61 SM. 1.6 115 9.4X 12.3X 16. 15.7 9.91 10.6s t 11.32 11.5 11.81 12.6X 13.6 13.9s 14.31 14.71 2421 UO3E 3 E11L 3L3X 3.4 3.41 3.sx 2.3x 2.41 2.4x 2.52 2.sx 2.61 2.6x 2.7x 2.51 2.8X -0.01 3.01 3.12 3.11 3.21 3.3X 243 WAVY FIEL OIL 43.11 43.8x 42.81 39.41 4.sx 4.81 49.0x 44.3x 36.71 3x.2X 4.0o 4.81 47.11 464X 51.1X 446.1 43.1 38.51 36.0x 3s.51 244 AWttALT 1.01 1.12 1.12n 1.12 0.8 0.81 0.91 0.91 1.01 1.01 t.1 X 1.1 1.21 1.3S 1.41X .4X 1.SX 1.6" 1.7X 1.8 243 --- 24 01L ECEWER 95.81 95.81 9.01 96.12 97.21 97.21 97.41 97.31 97.01 97.21 97.7x 97.7 9?.8X 97.91 97.7 9.77 97.7S 97.9s 98.0 98s.o 247 240 91-04-25 249 01:03 91 20 3n1 1991 t192 1993 1994 199s 1996 1997 1998 199 2000 2001 2002 203 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20tO 2SI ------- - ---------.... . ...- .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... . .... . .... . ... -- . .... . .... ... 252 MPPANE 0.05 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0;00 0.00 0.10 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 253 0ANE1 0.11 0.20 0.14 0.16 0.26 0.28 0.25 0.32 0.39 0.42 0.41 0.3 0.41 0.45 o.4 O.S 0.60 0.74 0.86 0.91 254 S 0.22 0.20 0.38 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 255 E£/TURBO 0.11 0.34 0.11 0.t2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.s9 0.84 0.93 1.10 1.10 1.19 0.53 0.23 0.40 256 AUTO DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ZS? MARINE DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ,0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 EAVY FUL OIL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 259 ...... - ---- ...... . - - - 260 TOTAL 0.49 0.82 0.69 0.83 0.26 0.29 0.26 0.33 0.39 0.43 0.42 0.9Y 1.25 1.30 2.19 1.73 1.81 1.37 1.18 1.41 261 262 EXPOSIS 243 ....... 264 900A*3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.Po 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 245 001A3E 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2661 moon 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.88 1.81 1.s8 1.77 2.23 2.10 1.42 1.47 1.36 1.30 0.9s 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.15 1.10 267 KERQ/tURBo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 266 AUTO DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.42 0.00 0.62 1.28 1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 269 UARINE DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 210 wEAV FUEL OIL 00oo 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.08 3.05 3.62 3.34 2.07 2.78 4.2? S.07 5.02 4.76 5.42 4.87 4.51 3.48 2.83 2.57 271 - ** ^-- --**-- ...... ...... ....... - .. -.... .. .... .... .. ...... .. .... .. .... .... .. ...... .. .... ...... ...... .... ...... .... ...... .. .... . ...... 272 TOTAL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 s.7 5.60 5.20 5.73 5.58 6.05 5.69 6.54 6.38 6.07 6.37 6.10 5.74 4.71 3.98 3.67 275 2m4. 2 n **v*s****v**o*w*****vvvP***X-v**v***v**wo-@--v-v**rov*ws---**vo-****--**@*---.-**.- -- ......... ..A 2. ........................................... 2an 1.2 199149 5 19" I 1993 1994 199 16 9 18 19 2 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 MT 2005 09 21 20 4s,0 MI .... *-.- .. .e .... ... *-. .... - . 211t K 24 20.28 17.20 15. 15.t IS 1641 17.15 18.04 1.5 1.9 20.86. 20.72 20.59 20.52 204 20.31 20J. 20.3 20.4 20.52 2O.5 2M2 WC? 7.5 14.77 u.16 3.63 14.25 1U. 15.7 16.51 7.36 15.21 15L.3 17.84 17.72 17.60 17.41 17.54 17.60 17.74 175 15.LOO 2M3 ISTNUS 23.43 19.86 17.60 1809 18.72 1.6r 20.67 21.70 22.78 23.91 23.84 23.7 23.70 23.63 23.56 23.56 23.56 23.S6 23.56 23.56 284 MTA 19.64 16.66 14.51 15.29 15.90 16.70 17.56 15.4 19.37 20.29 20.14 19.98 19.90 19.82 19.67 19.75 19. 7 19.86 19.95 20.04 255 ?0C08 2S.46 21.70 19.33 19AW 20.59 21.62 22.72 23.80 24.9S 26.15 26.08 26.00 25.93 25.85 25.78 25.75 25.78 25.75 25.78 25.78 256 OtIE1 22.81 19.17 16.85 17.41 18.05 19.0? 20.12 21.17 22.28 23.4 23.37 23.30 23.22 23.15 23.05 23.08 23.08 23.08 23.08 23.08 287 0.00 0.00. 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0A 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 M85 WpKES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 259...... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 290 81E 20.72 17.49 1S.5s 16.11 16.82 17.62 18.49 19.43 20.43 21.43 21.21 20.99 20.85 20.71 20.4 20.64 20.71 20.sr 21.03 21.15 291 HAPlTMA 26.40 22.12 19.s5 20.30 21.23 2230 23.45 24.69 26.02 27.34 27.05 26.76 26.57 26.39 26.09 26.30 26.39 26.60 26.81 27.0T 292 IE1o 32.63 27.50 24.47 25.32 26.44 2r.72 29.09 30.58 32.18 33.77 33.41 33.06 32.84 32.62 32.26 32.51 32.63 32.5r 33.12 33.37 m GAS OIL 29.00 24.13 21.25 22.06 23.13 24.33 2S.64 27.05 28.S? 30.0r 29.74 29.40 29.19 25.98 28.65 '25.88 28.99 29.23 29.46 29.70 294 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 295 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 296 PRODUCT 3803Ts 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0." 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2M7 . .. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 298 PROPAE 20.41 17.94 16t.4 17.12 17.83 15.62 19.47 20.22 21.03 21.81 21.6 21.48 21.37 21.25 21.08 21.20 21.26 21.35 21.51 21.63 29 BUTANE 25.02 21.94 20.19 20.89 21.76 22.73 23.78 24.72 25.72 26.72 26.S0 26.28 26.14 26.00 25.75 2S.93 26.00 26.16 26.32 26.47 > 300 tASLEAE 1 31.43 26.34 23.32 24.17 25.25 26.55 27.92 29.39 30.98 32.56 32.21 3t.86 31.64 31.42 31.07 31.31 31.43 31.67 31.92 32.1? 0 301 IWAS.LEAD II 32.94 27.08 24.92 25.81 26.98 28.29 29.71 31.19 32.78 34.36 34.01 33.66 33.44 33.21 32.86 33.11 33.22 33.47 33.7n 33.96 302 HOS, t3LEAD I 31.43 26.34 23.32 24.17 2s.28 26.55 27.92 29.39 30.98 32.S6 32.21 31.86 31.6 31.42 31.07 31.31 31.43 31.67 31.92 32.17 305 100AS, UNLEW I 32.94 27.88 24.92 25.81 26.98 28.29 29.71 31.19 32.78 34.36 34.01 33.66 33.44 33.21 32.86 33.11 33.22 33.47 33.71 33.96 304 IEhto,wSo 33.86 28.77 2S.78 26.68 27.85 29.17 30.60 32.08 33.68 35.2r 34.92 34.56 34.34 34.12 33.76 34.01 34.13 34.37 34.62 34.87 305 M0IO DIESEL 31.32 26.50 23.66 24.51 25.62 26.87 28.22 29.63 31.15 32.65 32.32 31.99 31.78 31.s6 31.23 31.6 31.57 31.81 32.04 32.28 306 KORINE DIESEL 30.30 25.63 22.89 23.71 24.79 26.00 27.30 28.67 30.13 31.S9 31.27 30.94 30.74 30.S3 30.21 30.4 30.54 30.77 31.00 31.22 30r HEAVY FUEL OIL 16.53 14.02 12.6 13.01 13.5s9 14.25 14.96 15.69 16.48 17.26 17.09 16.92 16.81 16.70 16.52 16.65 16.70 16.82 16.95 17.07 308 AS T 26.18 23.43 21.81 22.31 22.95 23.67 24.4 25.26 26.13 26.99 26.80 26.61 26.49 26.37 26.18 26.31 26.37 26.S5 M6.6 26.78 09 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 310 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00' 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 311 PRODUCT 123T31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 312................. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0LOO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 313 POAE 11.61 8.808 7.21 7.50 7.92 8.42 8.96 9.72 10.53 11.33 11.15 10.97 10.86 0.75 105 10.69 10.75 10.88 11.00 11.13 314 OUtMI 14.12 11.43 9.37 9.74 10.28 10.9 11.60 12.54 1.54 14.54 14.32 14.10 13.96 13.82 13.60 13.7s 13.82 13.98 14.14 u.29 315 IIWIS 30.65 25.56 22.52 23.35 2.44 25.60 27.02 28.50 30.09 31.66 31.31 30.96 30.74 30.S2 30.17 30.41 30.53 30.7? 31.02 31.27 316 KENO/IUR/t 30.94 25.79 22.73 23.S6 24.66 2S.91 27.26 28.75 30.35 31.94 31.58 31.23 31.01 30.79 30.43 30.68 30.00 31.04 31.29 31.54 317 AUTO 0S11 29.33 24.4S 21.55 22.34 23.38 24.57 25.85 27.26 28.75 30.25 29.95 29.61 29.40 29.19 28.86 29.09 29.20 29.43 29.67 29.90 318 WARINE DIESEL 28.36 23.63 20.63 21.59 22.60 23.75 24.9 26.35 27.82 29.27 28.95 25.62 28.42 28.22 27.8 28.12 28.22 28.45 28.68 28.91 31 WY ASS. OIL I 15.13 12.59 11.05 11.49 12.02 12.64 13.30 14.03 14.82 I 15.43 15.26 IS.IS 15.04 14.86 14.98 1S.04 1S.16 15.29 1S.41 I 320 WV fn.t Olt 11 16.06 13.5S 12.06 12.50 13.07 13.71 14.41 15.14 1S.93 16.54 16.36 16.25 16.14 1S.9M 16.09 16.1S 16.27 16.39 6.52 A 322 33 91-01-25 324 04 035 3n 326 M SE CAOSs 32t ............... 328 ftftuUS am, ILL.AGE 329 L.0531 330 LPG5 SLO 331 NOWCS 0.4X 332 0Itl 4S.2 333 334 p3U1m FOB OM5 36 S .+*...................... 3 1991 1992 993 1994 199S 1996 199? t996 9" 2000 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200 2W0B 20O9 2010 337 .... .... . .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 338 JE 2 2. 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.S 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.7 339 WTANS 10.4 9.6 9.3 10.1 11.0 12.1 13.3 14.5 15.9 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.6 20.4 21.3 22.S 23.7 2S.0 26.4 2V.9 340 WAS. UAWDE 29.S 22.6 18.1 16.5 14.8 12.8 10.4 7.S 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0- 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 341 "OM, UtEDm 3.3 S.7 7.7 11.0 14.8 19.2 24.3 30.1 36.8 4.3 45.1 46.0 47.0 48.1 49.0 50.8 52.6 S4.6 56.6 58.8 342 KERO/TO 2L.S 25.0 23.1 24.7 26.6 28.8 31.3 33.9 36.8 39.8 40.7 41.7 42.9 4.0 45.1 47.0 48.8 50.9 53.0 5S.3 343 AUTO DIE05. 42.4 40.2 39.3 52.8 43.S 45.4 48.5 48.2 52.8 55.7 58.7 61.9 6S.? 66.? 61.6 72.9 78.S 81.1 83.8 86.6 344 IMIIE 0IEL 10.S 9.4 8.8 9.7 10.s 11.2 12.0 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.1 15.3 1S.6 15.9 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.0 34S IEAV AMt OIL 75. 66.3 61.1 59.6 69.6 73.4 80.0 74.7 76.S 69.3 70.6 S8.6 60.2 U.6 64.6 S4.7 S6.2 S9.8 63.6 67.0 t 346 ASPIALT 2.9 2.7 2.? 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.6 S.0 S.3 5.5 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.4 7.8 8.3 8.9 346 TOTAL 205.1 183.4 172.1 169.3 196.3 209.0 226.3 229.0 244.S 249.8 257.2 251.9 260.8 268.1 274.S 276.1 289.0 302.0 315.S 32.2 349 330 teRISuAL OP.CosTS 351 F13l 11/13 S.74 S.74 S.74 S.74 S.74 5.74 S.74 s.74 S.74 s.74 S.74 S.74 S.74 S.74 5.74 .74 s.74 S.74 5.74 5.74 352 VARIAILE S/80L 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 353 354 toI GPM mOnI 6.26 6.29 6.31 6.33 6.35 6.35 6.3 6.3 6.35 6.32 6.34 6.32 6.34 6.36 6.39 6.37 6.39 6.42 6.45 6.4? 355 356 CAPITAL PROJECT 0.00 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00o 0.00 0.00 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 35 *WMAfill; 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 358 tOTAL COST Cf 211.8 192.7 178.8 196.0 203.1 215.8 233.1 235.7 251.2 2S 263.9 258.6 267.6 274.9 281.3 282.8 295.1 308.8 322.4 336.0 1f*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~t 361 91*56.25 CA2EwISA ** 3EUIUIU £LJUUaIIa I 362 06:03 PO 63 MPST COStS 9t1 1992 1993 1994 195 1996 1499 1998 1999 2000 200 2002 20 2056 2005 2006 200? 2W0 2009 t201 364 ................. .... .... ........ ................ .......... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... 365 K 24 111.0 0.0 0.0 105.0 13. 16.0 15.2 147.5 16.L 10.8 144.0 12t.7 114.6 0.0 0.0 4.2 67. 16.0 34.1 1313 3 M 1? L 0.0 3 6.3 3.1 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7n.1 74. 69.4 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 36? 151Km 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .1 61.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.6 36 NAVA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0*0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0O 0. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 369 FtM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 370 616E811 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 372 TOTAL cam 118.0 36.3 36.1 100.0 136l 14.0 15?.2 147.5 186.0 165.1 144.0 121.7 114.0 7. 74.48 73.6 97*8 126.0 134.1 150.9 313 74 SPES 375 v..* 376 3IIUUI 1.8 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.S 1.6 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 377 MAPTN 53.9 32.4 29.5 16.1 20.S 21.7 34.7 41.0 30.0 40.3 49.2 S3.8 S5.0 72.2 70.9 69.7 56.1 46.5 4.S6 44.9 378 1K10 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 379 GAS OIL 36.0 S6.9 54.1 S510 30.0 32.3 33*7 37.6 26.8 39.4 SS.2 65.9 73.1 92.0 94.0 100.7 5.4 92.0 87.0 67.0 380.. ......... .. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 381 TOTAL SPIKES 91.T 90.4 84.5 68.5 53.1 5S.9 T0S 80.7 58.3 81.4 106.7 121.8 130.1 U6.4 16.9 172.s 15.6 140.7 135.1 114.0 33 TOTAL FEEOStOCK 209.6 128.6 120.7 168 189.2 200.0 227.7 228.2 244.3 246.4 250.7 243.5 244.9 243.5 241.7 246.0 251.4 266.8 269.2 264.9 ° 384 385 IUNAT COSTS 386 ................ 387 POPAIE 1.0 1.6 1*6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.4 388 11AWM! 3.T 6.6 6.4 5.0 4.T 5.4 5.5 6.9 10.0 11.0 10.0 11.1 12.1 14.4 15.3 16.6 16.6 17.3 18.4 20.3 38 I S 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 p.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 390 KEOTUDso 0.0 0.0 0iO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 391 AUTO DIESEL 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 392 VAtIRE DtESEL 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 16.9 3 EAVT FM OIL 17.6 35.9 32.2 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 S.2 3.5 7.7 0.4 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 395 t0A1 22.2 44"1 40.2 14.7 6.1 6.6 7.0 8.6 11.8 1.2 12.4 13.8 20.1 21.3 26.6 20.7 28.0 21.3 2.4 41.6 L O 39 399 fROPAN 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 0. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 400 wluAi 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 O.0 o.0 0.0 o.O 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 401 MOS 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 7.8 18.0 18.8 17.8 18.6 16.9 16.2 14.6 15.4 1.0 10.3 6.1 1.1 0.0 1.7 402 KEROIIURUO 9.3 0.0 0.0 7.0 S.4 4.9 7.1 6.0 11.9 10.3 7.1 7.5 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 6.6 4.0 0.0 403 AUTO DIESEL 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40 minUu OIREt 0.0 0.0 0.0 -.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.° 0.0 0. 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40S AVT iEL 0IL 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.° 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4"..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ....-- ..... ..... .....--- 407 TOTAL 39.3 0.0 0.0 7.0 13.3 U.7 25.1 24.8 29.6 28.9 24.1 23.7 22.4 15.4 13.0 10.3 11.0 7.7 4.0 1.7 4 W 409 410 tot aM#PRW 1.6 172. 160.9 176.3 181.9 194.1 20.6 211.9 22.4 230.7 239.0 233.6 242.6 249.5 25S.4 256.4 268.5 280.3 22.6 304.8 41t REFINERY oP.cosTS 412 fIlEO Ni08tR 10.95 10.95 10.95 10.9" tO 10.95 10.95 1O.9 10.9 10. 10.95 1O.9 1O.95 10.95 1o.95 10.95 10.95 10.95 10.95 10.95 10.95 413 VAIAUIt $SlO. O.47 0.47 0.47 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.2 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 02 0.22 O.Z 414 415 TOt PCaS mivml 15.3 14.0 14.2 13.1 13.3 1.3 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.2 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.4 13.4 13.4 416 417 CAPITALT-itJ 0.0 9.1 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41t -SUSA5INING 2. 2.5 2.5 2. . 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.S 2.S 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.S 2.5 2.S 2.5 2.5 419 TOTAL cost cu 210.4 198.) 183.9 191.9 197.7 209.9 225.6 227.8 242.3 246. 254.8 249.3 258.3 265.2 271.1 m.2 281.2 2 9.2 38.S 320.7 420 SAVING US. TERM 1.4 -5.6 -5.2 4.2 5.4 5.9 7.5 7.9 9.0 10.0 9.1 9.3 9.2 9.7 10.2 10.7 11.6 12.6 13.9 15.3 0421 422 InTI 1ATE 13TI 367.42 423 UTI PIES VAUW 8 i5.02 24.5 USSI4ttin LA 435 n*o .s g *25 a , a- aEiu A.LMuM it' 428 OlgOS PU 42 FINS= Uli 1 1992 993 1994 1Os 1 99 "DO 99' . 2001 00 20UN 200o 2W65 2001 20W 2008 20 231 428 .........*.. .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .. . .... .. ... 429 ECU 24 1N.O 0.0 0.0 10j. 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4n30W 1 0.0 38. 34.1 0.8 74A O8. 84.8 76.6 7. 75.7 74.9 63.S 03.1 8o0 119.2 72.9 n3.2 .2 743 0.6 43 l3 o5 o 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 13.1 138.8 172.? 1M. 209.4 26. M17 18.7 1. 95.6.3 2013 21.7 206.3 21.4 432 HZAI 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 L0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 . 0. 0.0 0.O 0.0 433 I0KADO15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 434 O1tt1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 40.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4U3 1011A CUE 118.0 33 36.1 100.0 198.5 212.0 2.6 249.3 m6 M.1 2.7 M.1 269.8 2.4 .a 279.2 279.5 8.9 M26 2.0 437 438 weiM 4" .... 4O U11AN£ 1.8 1.1 1.0 1.S 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 441 EIUIIUA 53.9 32.4 29.S 16.1 21.2 17.3 18.2 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 8.9 6.6 20.4' 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 442 NM10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 443 GS 01 30.0 S6.9 54.1 51.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 444"............ ............... .... . _ ................... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....- ...--- -.-.----- ----- S 10t1l* 95m5 91.7 91 845 8.5 22.1 18A 19.3 8.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 14.6 9.9 7.6 s5.8 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 446 447 0A FEsTOK 209.6 128. 120.7 168.5 220.6 231.2 242.9 257.7 272.5 26.0 281.6 279.a 279.7 279.0 27.7 20.0 80 262.7 21.4 2K. 448 451 t.1 O 1. 1.6 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.S 0.? 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.6 2.4 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.8 4S2 WIAE 3.7 6.6 6.4 5.0 6.7 7.3 8.2 18.0 11.7 13.0 13.7 13.6 14.5 15.8 15.0 1.4 19.5 21.0 22.2 24.0 453 $6S, L10 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 454 °10TtR3 0.0 0.0 0A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.0 4.4 S.2 455 AWO 031tSL 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 OL 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 7.3 456 "win 0IESEL 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.3 6.S 6.4 10.4 3.1 457 8*14 fUtA OIL 17.6 35.9 32.2 8.4 5.1 S.S 8.6 2.8 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4SB ---***.-...* .. .. ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ,, ,, ,_ ..... ..... ..... ..... 459 TOT*AL 22.2 44.1 40.2 14.7 12.0 13.0 17.2 13.3 15.3 13.7 14.7 14.8 16.1 17.3 18.6 21. 28.6 31.? 40.0 42.4 II ul~~~~~~~ I 464 pPE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 465 ENTA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 46 mm 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.0 67.1 6.6 6.9 71.1 n.5 71.5 72.3 9.6 67.3 51.8 6.l 61 7 42. I 9.8 40.7 447 KEwoTJO 9,3 0.0 0.o 7.0 14.9 9.6 9.3 104 9.9 9.3 8.0 6.6 5.2 4.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 468 AMTO DIESEL 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 3.5 1.0 17.0 17.1 14.S 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 469 Nive DIESE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 479 KAn FUEL OIL 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 3.3 16.9 3.7 10.1 14.9 ff.l 13.6 8L1 6.5 0.0 471 ..... .. ..... ..... .... ..... ..... ... . . ....... ..... ..... ......... ..... ..... ... ... 472 TOAL 39.3 0.0 0.0 7.0 80.0 81.0 .4 93.1 97.9 107.3 97.4 96.7 88.5 81.5 6.7 79.3 15.3 70.3 "6. 60.7 473 44 CR CST 192.6 172.Y 160.9 176.3 152.6 1.2 177.7 177.9 9.8 12.4 201.9 t197. 20.3 214.9 2.s 22.3 233.7 244.1 I. 266. 4S ESINET oP.coTs 476 flXE0 1 10." 10.95 tO.95 1O.5 15.20 15.20 15.20 1.20 15.20 1S.20 15.20 15.20 1520 15.20 15.2D 15.25 15.20 15 .20 1S.20 477 VARIADLE SISK 0.47 0. 0.47 0.47 0.32 0.32 0.32 032 0.3 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32, 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 478 479 tot 0IS Cn STR 1S.3 t4.0 14.2 15.4 T9.3 9.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 t3 19.3 9.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 410 481 CllTAL*-POJECt 3.0 19.9 61.3 46.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 482 -USTAININ 2.5 2.5 2.S 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 483 TOTAL 1081 213.4 209.1 238.9 240.1 174.5 185.1 199. 199.7 a-¶.7 215.0 224. 220. 230.0 23T.S 245.2 245.0 5.3 26. 27.8 289.2 481 SAVING VS. TEN -1.6 -16.S -60.1 .44.1 28.6 30.7 33.S 36.0 19.6 41.5 39.4 38.1 37.6 37.4 36.1 3r.9 .S 42.0 4.6 4.9 485 IUTRUL RAnTE TM 23.5 4"6 VW 15. 43.1 USt mit s I Jan 199 1 48t 48 SAYINS VS. REf I *3.0 .t1.8 *54.9 -4a.6 23.2 24.9 26.0 28.1 30.6 31.4 30.3 28.8 2.4 2.7 25.9 2.2 2.9 29.5 30.7 31.6 489 lNUISt. RATN 19."0 490 I SM 15.01 U1.6 Ust 5ittio af smnM Kt..~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1 -A ' ; ANNEX 7.X Page of 3 Corpore and Financial Planming Analysis Documentation Reain to the Financial Model 1. 7he finai models are linked to the reflnery planng modds and are designed to provide a more dtied analysis of ctain isues, pardicarly dtse relating to flnance and corporate planning. 2. 7he modes a set up in LOTUS 2.2 and are named FINREFI.WK1 and FINREP2.WKl, In accordace with refinry configuradon cases I and II. Tables 1 and 2 provIde sample outputs. 3. Specfic liks have been esablished between the two FINREF spreadshots and named ranges in R-nF .WKI and DEMAND.WK1. The refinery planning models provide arango of base iormaton for the financial aalysis. 4. HIalc financial data provide base Input for the financial statements in two main areas: Group 1: oher oprtng Income; interest income and expenditur; investments in subsidirie; fied assets In service and accumulated depredation; longterm debt and aocaWd intest; paid-in capital; rtaned erings. And Group 2: cash in bank; receiables and payables; inventories. S. Thlh tmIn Group I are projected to continue at their current levels, wth adjustments tr angs due to the proposed opertions. Group 2 Iems are for reference only, d ar not included in the forecast. All projections are for 1990. Speciflc Model Infomation 6. L betweenthe refinery planning model and various components of the foecast are shown da cally in Figure 1. The varlables include the market forecast for Petrojam, crude and product prices. Petojam revenues, refining costs, capital costs, depreciation, the financing structure, and tax- rdated allowances. The flnancW forecasts include income statements (revenues, operating Income, interest nome, taxes, dividends, net profit, etc.), and baiance sheets (receivables, inventories, payables, interest on current debt, etc.). FinancW iDalysis of Foreign Partner 7. The model aumes a repatriation of dividends, in proportion to the foreign partner's ownership shae. A-105 AN=E 7.1 Pag 2 of 3 Non-Petroam Maket Po Fclai Anaysi S. The demand forecas Incldes marketing compwanis and major consumers. Importation coot ar based on vowm_ n the demand foecast and pris, a for Projam Reenue arecauled on the bis of dho dmand fcast and refiry gato pices, as for Petrojam. Operatng cost for temally is iut a ault cost and can be vaed. Anysis of Foreig Excag Cash Plows 9. This analysis Is tied to Petojams ownership stucre. Informatn on sources applicados of imds comes from the deiled financW summary of Petrojam and marketi compoaes. Mm anaysi of dividend pariaton assumes that the foreip partner will repatriate ts share of the profit and dividends In foil. Anaysi of Fisca Cash Flows 10. This anysis also tied to Ptjam's ownership stuce. With regad to Import dudes, th _ 1Mdm is tha mkaetig ompanies will no longer have to pay Impost duty on products, and tha al mpore will be smiay rglated. Income t is etacted from finnil projections of relevant enidtles. PCI's share of Peojam profi and divids is cndda cas inflow to amaican minyofPFnan. 11. A complte set of four fiacil anysis spredeets ar attached for the followig casm: 1.0.3 Busness-as-Usual, Bas margin, reduced demand, reduced price, 0% foreIg .WM* 13.1 Business-Usual, Base margn, reduced demand, reduced price, 75% foreIgl ownership. 2.0.3 Cat Cracking, Base margn, reduced demand, reduced price, 0% foreIgS ownerip. 2.3.1 Cat Cracig, Base maglin, reduced demand, reduced price, 75% foreIgn ownership. A-106 Page 3 of 3 FIGURE 7.1: JAMAICA ESSIP STUDY - SCHEMATIC OF PETROLEUM SECTOR FINANCIAL MODELLING SYSTEM, INCLUDING LINKAGES WTIH ECONOMIC MODELS RUPLAN. WX1 DMhAND.WKI HISTORZCAIL Terminal, Refinery Jamaica Product FINANCIAL Cash Flow Model Demand Forecast Share DATA PETROJAM z / \ / \ / ~~~~~~& QhITAL F TNRM:F1 .WE FItNREr2 .WXtl Financial model for Pinancial Model for Refinery Configuration I Refinery Config. II OUTPUTS EACH CASE Petrojam Statement Income Balance Sheet Sourcest Applications Bank of JamaLca - FOREX. Ministry of Finance - PISCAL Foreign Partner Cash Flow Marketing Companies Marginal Cr A-107 1 O109 1051 WMI FILE a FINREF 1.0.3, AS5E 1, RUPJ DEMO, M_ICE, Ot0REN 2 JJAUICA ENIMI SEC=R £TRWEO AND IVESTN P* I0 SW 3 PETOLEP SETOR FINANCIAl AISIS - CAME I - SIIESS AS USIML 4 s 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199 16 19 98 199 2000 20 20 205 20 2 20 2007 2005 200 201M0 7 RNiUEt FOECAST FOR PITRO - mltlit m of barrels a 9 10 Lam W o REFINER 1 . 12 910*3 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0. 0.24 0.25 0.26 13 TAIIUE 0.42 0.44 O.46 0.48 0.51 0.53 0.56 O.S9 0.62 0.6S 0.68 0.71 0.75 0.79 0.o3 0.67 091 0.96 1.00 1.05 14 106AS, LEDD 0. 0.65 0.7r 0.6" 0.58 0.48 0.37 0.2S 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15 NOAS. UALEODED 0.10 O.21 0.33 0.4S 0.56 0.72 0.86 1.02 1.18 1.3S 1.39 1.43 1.47 1.52 1.S 1.61 1.6 1.71 1.76 1.61 16 KEROiVUR8O 0.84 0.86 0.69 0.92 0.95 0.98 1.02 1.05 1.09 1.12 1.16 1.20 1.24 1.29 1.33 1.3 1.42 1.47 1.53 1.58 17 AUTO DIESEL 1.35 1.51 1.65 2.14 1.69 1.66 1.71 1.62 1.69 1.70 1.81 1.93 2.06 2.11 2.15 2.31 2.U8 2.S4 20 2.67 18 MlINE 0IESEL 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.41 0.42 0.43 044 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.60 t 19 WHAVY FUEL OIL 4.55 4.71 4.85 4.56 S.10 5.13 S.32 4.74 4.42 4.00 4.11 3.46 3.5T 3.13 3.90 3.2 33S5 3.S4 3.74 3.9 - 20 ASP1ALT 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.1S 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.2S 0.26 0.26 0.29 0.31 0.33 22 8.75 9.18 9.58 9.90 10.10 10.24 1O.S 10.03 10.11 9.63 10.00 9.62 10.01 10.38 10.76 10.4 10.83 11.33 11.75 12.23 23 ETPCRtS 24 ---..._.., 2S PROPANE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Z6 mnAuE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 Hras 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.30 0.67 066 0.59 0.59 0.34 0.52 0.47 0.50 0.43 0.34 0.20 0.04 0.00 0.05 28 KEuOTUMo 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.22 0.19 0.26 0.21 0.39 0.32 0.23 0.24 0.2S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.21 0.13 0.00 29 AUTO 0IESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 30 MARINE DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.OO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 31 IFAW FUEL OIL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 s2 **--------.-.............................................................................................._-..__.. __,_____,__,,_____,,,__,,,,_ 33 -t1.20 0.00 0.00 030 0.54 0.49 0.93 0.T 0.9 0." 0.77 0.76 .0.73 O.SO 0.43 0.34 036 0S 0.13 0.25 *x.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~' I 06U04J91 10s25 mI FILE s flEREF 1.0.3, EASE 01ARGl, KEDUCE ODEAl, P uCE, OFOtEIEU 2 AIAmI UENllT .EtCTR 51341181 13 IV1ESIIUUT PLANING3 5113T 3 PETOtMt6 SECTOR FlMIUACi ANALYSIS - CASE I - O3IS8 AS USIML 35 Jmican B ItetAt.mln Irachtry 31 Ptew PAIFT OF EXPTS A30 3?Outo* ) 3B6.61 lm Okp.. Lnsdt 39 ncTwrb 40 ADO Seo otmet 41 Rwirw 01s.t 42 Fusl all 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.OD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 46 TOTAL OEWUC 10.03 9.18 9.58 10.19 10.64 10.7S t1.S1 1O.90 ft.09 10.54 10.7T 10.38 1.73 10.88 11.19 10.80 11.24 11.5J 11.91 12.28 4? 41 49 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 199S 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200? 2oeS 2009 2010 SO .. ..... .... .... .... ... .... .... ... .... ... .... ... .... ... .... ... .... 5I JANA ICA C10S 52 -..... 53 PMAWM O.OS 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.16 0.1? 0.18 0.18 O.19 0.20 0.20 54 BU1A4E 0.15 0.30 0.32 0.21 0.22 0.24 0.23 0.20 0.39 0.41 0.38 0.42 0.46 0.55 0.59 0.64 0."6 0.66 .JO 0.77 SS OCAS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 56 KERO/TIMUO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ST AMTO DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 sa DM131 IE3o.oo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.1 054 S9 AW FUIEL OIL 1.0? 256 2.5? 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.21 0.46 0.02 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 60 .............................................................................................................. . ......................................................................................................__ 61 1.26 2.95 2.90 0.96 0.29 0.31 0.31 0.36 0.47 0.51 0.49 0.55 0.90 0.92 1.23 0.81 1.2? 0.85 1.05 1.51 62 1 O/491 1025 AM flnE * 9l1, .0.3, SS NAIGIN, RUIICW M, MCI, OXWOUt 2 JAIICA E113 33100 3r4s16f1 AIID 3lM18SIII PLUUIWI SW 3 P1tllK IBtM FINANCIAL ULALSIS - ASE CM * - RUINS AS 4 CM"UN RIM - .tmw of betets 63 .... 5.82 0.00 0.00 6.37 8.34 5.40 8.72 7.79 5.4? 4.97 6." 5.91 560 0.00 0.00 0.20 4.30 6.16 6.S3 6.38 67 g,I 17 0.00 2.S9 2.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.38 4.30 3-96 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 68 ISKS 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.38 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.83 69 NAVA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7D FlcMIOS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 71 01ENT1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 73 TOTAL WL CR6 5.82 2.59 2.74 6.3 8.34 8.40 8.72 7.79 8.5 7.54 6." S.91 5.60 4.38 4.30 4.16 4.88 6.16 6.53 7.21 74 76 SPIKES aln - .ttllem of barre ?7 ---------- 75 BUTAIN 0.09 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.07 0.08 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.1 0.10 79 PTUA 2.04 1.46 1.S0 0.79 0.97 0.97 1.48 1.66 1.S 1.4? 1.82 2.01 2.07 2.74 2.72 2.6S 2.12 1.15 1.71 1.66 0 0 mm 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $I 81 CI OIL 1.24 2.36 2.54 2.31 1.33 1.33 1.31 1.39 0.94 1.31 1.86 2.24 2.50 3.18 3.28 3.49 3.29 3.15 2.95 2.26 a2........................................................................................ 83 tOTAL SPIES 3.37 3.88 4.1t 3.19 2.41 2.41 2.9 3.16 2.16 2.6 3.78 4.35 4.67 6.02 J.10 6.24 5.32 5.00 4.7 4.02 84 5 86 1 010491 10:25 Al FILE * FIUP 1.0.3o uS 3318. UCEW 31NND RICEM, OlF 2 NMWCA EMY I 1161 OIRAIEw on tWSItB PAiISW 3 P1L3 SEtS FIUnA _L11S - CE I - 31UE Al UEML # 10" 19"9 1992 1 9 19 199 1"9e 199 199 1 00 20 2002 2 200 2am am U 0 n 0 MPa Jg .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .. 90a m PrI PRnICES - us/L 92 913 mn PR=T PRICES CI) 94 ..... ....... 05 PWAu 20.41 17.94 6.54 17.12 17.83 14.62 19.47 20.22 21.0 21.U 21.66 21.48 21.37 21.25 21.08 21.20 21.26 21.38 21.51 2t.3 96 WTAIE 25.02 21.94 20.19 20.09 21.76 22.73 23.78 24.72 25.72 26.72 26.50 26.28 26.14 26.00 25.76 25.93 26.00 26.16 26.32 2.47 97 NOS=l 32.94 27.88 24.92 25.51 26.98 20.29 29.71 31.19 32.78 34.36 34.01 33.66 33.44 33.21 32.96 33.11 33.22 33.47 33.71 33.96 96 UuonmTua 33.86 26.77 25.78 26.6 27.85 29.17 300 32.08 33.68 35.27 34.92 34.56 34.34 34.12 33.76 34.01 34.13 34.37 3.412 34.87 99 AUTO DIESEL 31.32 26.S0 23.66 24.51 25.62 26.6t 28.22 29.63 31.15 32.65 32.32 31.99 31.78 31.56 31.23 31.46 31.57 31.81 32.94 328 100 KOINE IE#SL 30.30 25.63 22.09 23.71 24.79 26.00 2.30 28.67 30.13 31.5 31.2 30.94 30.74 30. 30.21 30.4 30.54 S3.7T 31.00 31.22 101 HEA FM. OIL 16.53 14.02 12.56 13.01 13.59 14.25 14.96 15.9 16.48 17.26 17.09 16.92 16.81 16.70 16.52 16.65 16.7 16.12 16.95 r.0o 102 105 104 EO PRDT PRICES; 9401ITEAlUIA PRDt PlICES t16 PRPA 11.61 8.88 7.21 7.50 7.92 5.42 6.96 9.72 10.53 11.33 11.1S 10.97 10.86 10.75 10.5 10.69 10.75 10.88 11.0 11.13 TO? BUTAhE 14.62 11.43 9.37 9.74 10.25 10.91 11.60 12.S4 13.4 14.54 U132 14.10 13.96 13.82 13.60 13.75 13.2 13.98 14.U 14.29 104 MM"86 30.46 2S.S6 22.S 23.35 24.4 2546 27.02 28.50 30.09 31.46 31.31 30.96 30.74 30.52 30.17 3S.4 30.53 30. 31.02 31.2 109 MEOIITIM6O 30.94 25.79 22.73 23.56 24.66 25.91 2.26 28.75 30.35 31.94 31.58 31.23 31.01 30.79 30.43 30.68 30.80 31.04 31.29 31.4S 110 NUTO DIESEL 29.3 24.4S 21.55 22.34 23.3 24.57 25.85 2.26 20.78 30.20 29.95 29.61 29.40 29.19 2.86 29.09 29.20 29.43 29.67 29.90 III SUINE DIESEL 2.J6 25.63 20.63 21.5 22.60 23.7 24.99 26.35 27.2 29.27 28.95 28.62 28.42 2.22 27.89 28.12 28.22 26.45 248 28L9t i112t IAV RIEL OIL 1 15.13 12.59 1.06 11.49 12.02 12.64 13J0 14.03 14.02 15.60 15.43 15.26 1S.1 15.04 14.86 14.98 15.04 15.16 1529 15.41 Its HEAVY PAL OIL 2 16.06 13.55 12.06 12.50 13.07 13.71 14.41 15.14 15." 16.7 16.54 16.36 16.25 16.14 15.97 16.09 16.15 1627 16J9 6.52 lts 115 116 IWPMT PARITI MNO 11 NmE. LEA 31.43 26.34 23.32 24.17 25.28 26.SS 2.92 29.39 30.98 32.56 32.21 31.86 3.64 31.42 31.07 31.31 31.43 31.67 31.92 32.17 119 M05 WILM 31.43 26.34 23.32 24.17 25.28 2.55 2V.92 29.39 30.98 32.56 32.21 31.66 31.6 31.42 31.07 31.31 31.43 31.7 31.92 3217 t10 121 I FM APALT 2.16 2.43 21.01 22.31 22.95 2s.67 4.4 2.26 26.13 26.99 26.80 26.61 26.49 26.37 26. 26.31 26.3 26.1 26.6 26.78 122 -----.- PET.-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1 06104/91 10: m FILE * tl81 1.SS3, SM WSIm. _,IW SUW*, PCIC OWUEU1I 2 WcA uuiu SEITIa Iumu AND 111_mw 1IU8 sIUa 3 PmUW SECT. PULUd5L AATISS - a t - ItESS AS UVL 1n 1991 19 1993 1994 1995 19961 19l0 19" 9 200 O 20DI RO 200 15 2NO 06 2M 2008 UN 9W 210 125 hhIIhf R1 MCE! 38... **-* ... . -. .. .. . . .. .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 1 .*................ TO Cif 12? P1PJE 2.3 22.78 203 13.92 19.4 2.20 2." 21.84 20 3.1 24.21 21.03 3.5 23.74 3.3 2.0 n3.5 301 MM1 23 24.01 128 3UT*E l 2.37 27.39 24.31 22.36 2S.2 21.1 25.11 26.15 27.09 28.10 29.09 28.8? 2845 28.51 2837 2S1S 28.30 28L3 2853 2D6 28.31 19 300C8, tEDE 0.88 32.31 27.21 26.20 23.05 26.16 2.43 23.80 30.2 31.8 33.44 3309 32.74 32.52 32.30 31.95 32.19 32.31 32.5 32.30 33.01 130 N$S, tEA 0.8 32.32 2722 24.20 25.05 26.1? V.43 28.88 30.2 31.87 33.4 33.09 32.74 32. 32.0 31.95 32.19 32.31 32.55 32.30 33.05 131 KESOITUE3 1.21 35.07 29.99 24.99 27.89 29.06 30.38 31.81 33.29 34.8 36.48 36.13 35.77 3.S 35.33 31.98 3S5.2 353- 35.59 35.5 36.08 132 AM DIESE 1.17 32.49 2.67 24.83 25.68 26.9 28.01 29.39 30.40 32.32 33.82 33.49 33.16 32.94 32.73 32.40 32.A3 32.74 3.98 33.21 33.45 133 NIUE DIESL 1.59 31.9 27.22 24.48 25.30 24.38 27.59 28.8 30.26 31.72 33.18 32.86 32.53 323 32.12 31.0 3L03 M13 32.36 32.59 320 134 W NUEL OIL 1.56 18.08 1S.S U.141 14.56 15.15 15.S8 1.52 1t.25 1.04 18.82 186 1.4 18.3? U1B.2 W1.8 18.20 1L82 1u530 15 m AILT D.7 26.95 24.28 22.59 23.08 23.72 24.45 25.23 26.01 2." 27.7r 2V. 27.38 2V.26 27.4 26.95 27.08 27.15 2V 2.42 27.5 136 139 9m4 20.28 1T.20 15.24 1S.1 16.31 17.1 518.01 8.9" t9." 20.8 20.72 20.59 20.52 20.45 20.31 20.38 20.3 20.45 28.52 28.S9 140 MIT 17.50 14.77 13.16 13.6 14.25 14.9 15.71 6.S 1T.36 18.21 18.05 17.81 17.72 17.60 17.41 1T.S4 t7.60 17.74 17.87 1.00 1 141 ISTER 23.43 19.86 17.60 18.09 18.72 19.67 20.67 21.70 22.8 23.91 23.4 23.7 23.70 23.63 23.56 23.56 2356 23.62 2S.56 256 142 tIA 19.64 6.66 14.8 15.29 1S." 16.70 17.56 U.44 19.37 20.29 20.14 19.98 19.90 19.2 1.6 19.S 19.77 19.86 19.95 20.01 143 fVOMb 2S.4 21.70 19.33 19.89 20.59 2142 22.72 23J11 24.95 26.15 26.08 26.00 25.93 25AS 2S.78 25.7 25.78 257d8 578 5.18 144 0MSEUI 22.8 19.7T t6.08 17.41 18.08 19.07 20.12 21.17 22.28 23.44 23.37 23.20 23.22 23.15 23.08 23.08 23.08 23.08 23.018 2.08 145 t47 .......... u4s SWA 20.72 57.49 t5.S8 16.11 12 17.42 t8.49 1.43 20.43 21.43 21.21 20.99 20.8 20.75 20.49 20.6 20.75 20.7 21.0 21.5 t APTm 26.40 22.12 19.58 2.30 21.2 22.20 23.45 2.69 26.02 27V 2.05 26.76 26LS 26.3 26.0 2630 263 2M4 26W.8 27.01 ISO OM 32.6 2.50 21.47 2S.3 26.44 27.7 29.09 20.S 32.18 MIT 33.41 33.06 3.84 2 32.26 4S 32.5 324 2 33.1 33.37 151 GS OIL 29.00 24.13 21.25 22.06 23.13 24.33 23." V.65 28.57 0.0O7 29.74 29." 29.t9 289 8" 28 28.9 2923 2.4 29 .3 I 0o8j last5 M1 FILE a l.t.O3, I= "ahll, RUUCW D S, M10. t oU 2 MAICA 5313 a -spin a $IU1 An i1v_1T3 "Ain SW 3 pIIRlOW iKIR a, rACiAL A1NASS - WA! I U llE IS 18 USK 15" 154 15 1 19M t99 1992 1995 1994 1995 1 im 1996 1999 300 2001 2062 2003 200" 2005 200Q 357 356 309 310 w5 .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ........ .... ........ .... ........ .... .. .... ........ .... .. ..-.-- - ------- 158 ITi alumina1£ * _rn " -~~~~t 160 161 ltStIC 1Kh SEE (8 sqzlvalmnt of locat awrmu) ua ................... l6 92O9*3 2.38 2.22 2.17 235 2.56 2.7 3.05 3.2 3.61 3.92 4.06 4.25 4.45 445 4.8 5.11 S5. 5.8 5.99 63 1"4 SWAN 11.42 10.6S 10.37 1133 U.23 U.36 1462 15.90 17.31 1.82 19.61 20.44 21.3 22.31 23.24 24.54 258 27.2 28L.9 30.4 165 3WII, 18*0 30.07 23.19 18.58 16.96 15.22 13.15 10467 7.7 4.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 000.00 0.00 .O0 0.00 0.00 0.00 166Mo008. tE 3.34 S.80 7.9? 11.32 15.23 19.73 24.9 30.80 37.5 4S.12 45." 46.8 47.95 49.05 49.9T 51.7 53.61 5.64 sr.74 59.92 167 UlW Mt 29.37 25.93 24.11 25.73 27.0 29.92 32.37 35.02 37.94 41.01 41.9 43.00 .19 45.43 46.52 48.4? 503 S5. 51.45 S696 168 AUTO DIESEL 43.78 41.77 41.06 55.05 45.32 47.17 50.26 49.89 54.54 57.43 60.54 63.94 67.2 68.3 69.80 75.29 81.08 8.70 86.50 89.3 t69 34l3 8IE3 11.01 9.92 9.42 10.20 11.09 11.5 12. 13.60 14.59 1S.61 15.83 16.05 16.34 16.5 16.89 17.45 17.96 .56 19.19 W.4 170 - AW REl L OIL 82.35 73.36 8.46 66.4 7.22 81.15 8W.93 61.75 .35 7.22 76.7t 63.96 63.56 68.12 70.45 59.58 61.16 65.10 69.19 7.83 17 ASPT 2.95 2.81 2.78 3.01 3.28 3.58 3.9 4.28 4.69 5.13 5.40 5.9 6.00 6.3 6.6 7.10 7.S4 6.03 8.56 9.12 in . - -...... .. . .... .... .. ............................................................................ 17 total 216.6 19.6 1.94 202.39 20. m2.72 240.9 242.26 257.77 262.26 7.16 24.22 273.6 2.46 239 289.40 389 3t6.42 330. 344.a2 174 175 17* 12U06 E1158 US - foreIgn Excng %Tt ..__........ 178 PROANE 0.00 0.D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 179 WIAE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 00 0.0 0.0o 0.0o 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 180 l0$ 30.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.94 7.78 18.0 18.83 17.79 18.61 16.91 16.16 14.S9 15.37 12.99 10.2 6.13 1.12 0.00 1.71 18t 0wSo 9.26 0.00 0.00 6.97 5.40 4.9472 r0 5.98 11.85 10.26 7.15 r7.2 7.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.8 6.57 4.00 0.00 182 AUTO DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13 mainE Diem 0.00 .W 0.00 o.oo o.oo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 184 WAV FME OIL I -Coa I 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o0.o 0.00 0.00 0.00 1W5 MAW fUEL OIL 2 -Cam II 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 030 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8s ..... . ......... ..................... U8 39.27 0.00 0.00 6.97 13.3 12.70 25-11 24.81 29.64 28. 24.06 2.68 22.40 15. 12.9 1l2 tO.96 7.70 4.00 1.71 1 011 10:25 M FILE a FIWl 1.03. SASE MARINU6, I Ot tlEIWD, MICE, O3E13I3 2 JUmltA ES aE 1*II aIm ItNESEN PUIJIUI am131 3 PITUOW SETOS PINAeEL antsI - CASE I BUSnESS aS Um t89 SMIrnTElUIAIN IEItVEI USS - For.l1g Ezxdcm 190 -------------- I91 PiOPA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 t92 BUTA"E 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.W0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.QO o.eo o.oo O.QO O.QO O.OO O.OO O.OO O.EO 193 NuAni 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0G 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 MM/Ama 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 tss uo/u3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.o0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 195 AUTO OIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 196 MURINE DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 197 HEAVY FUEL OIL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 196 WEAV fUEL OIL 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 M.tO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 201 ............................ ........................ _.... ... ............................................... 202 TOTAL REI5UES - USS 255.93 19M." 184.94 209.36 223.19 235.41 265.51 267.07 287.t1 291.12 294.22 W87.90 2946.06 296.83 301.38 299.73 313.86 324.12 334.62 346.53 203 205 206 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 199? 1998 9999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200? 2008 2009 2010 206 REFINING COSTS -US53 209 210 211 CWDE 212 ---------- 213 Kf24 117.98 0.00 0.00 100.02 136.05 144.04 t57.20 147.53 10S.88 103.79 144.02 121.72 114.81 0.00 0.00 4.17 8T.56 126.01 t34.08 131.31 214 8CF1t 0.00 38.27 36.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 77.15 74.79 69.40 10.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 21S tnTHus 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 77.07 61.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.61 2t6 NAYA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 217 FORCADOS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 218 OC8iENTE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 219 ----------------.......................... -.----..-.............................................................. 220 TOTAL WOLE CRONE ItPUTS 117.98 38.27 36.12 100.02 136.05 14.04 157.20 147.53 185.95 165.06 144.02 121.72 114.81 77.15 74.79 73.s5 97.78 126.01 134.08 1SO.91 221 1 00/019 10tOs2S FL tlU FISEF 1.0.3, SE Nf=1U SEICI OOll NIC0E. 0 31530 2 JaIctA EN 5111 I 1IF 7 S 56! Mt_t TII PANS 11N1M 3 PUMW UIKFS FIL_M. ASAnLsVI - CAW I - 1Mf11 AS 311 224 - 22S WIAs 1.1 1.0 1.02 1.4? 1.75 1.? L.0 2.06 1.4 1.64 2.25 2.07 2.0 2.12 2.09 2.11 2.12 2.29 2.30 2.6 226 hSPAT 536. 32.3? 29.4 16.00 20.54 21.73 31.74 41.00 30.Ot 40.32 4.1? 53.51 S4.99 72.23 70.6A .5 LO ".So 45.79 4.0 227 KUlO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.O 0. 0 0.00 0,00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 228 U4S OIL 35.98 56.90 54.0? 50.97 30.51 3233 33.0 37.62 26.50 39.40 S5.25 65.90 73.10 92.03 94.00 100.6Y 95.45 9195 50.99 66.98 230 TOtAL PIKES I312T5 9.46 90.36 64.55 68.2 53.1 55.92 TO053 80.67 55.30 51.37 100.46 121.78 130.14 166.35 16ff .172.46 1A3 140.74 135.00 114.01 231 232 P9101T INNEiS m ........... 234 PUOPAE 0.97 1."4 1.37 1.4 1.37 1.43 1.49 1.70 1.84 2.15 2.4% 2.67 2.81 3.41 3462 3.79 3.80 3.98 4.32 4.42 23 SwTa 3.65 6.5? 6.41 4.96 4.49 5.39 5.4? 6.56 9.95 11.02 9.96 11.13 12.12 14.42 15.34 16.56 16.t 17.8 1S44 20.29 236 N04AS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23? 1EEOflUISO 0.0 0.00 1900 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 235 A1FO DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 a29 M43in8 OIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.44 16.6 q 240 NAVY R EL OIL 17.61 35.80 32.22 5.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .1s 3.47 7.66 0.36 7.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 241l .......... .........................................................................................__............ 242 TOTAL COST OF P500/3MB MTL. 22.23 44.09 40.20 14.75 6.05 6.82 6.96 5.SS 11.79 S.1? 12.4t 13.79 20.05 31.31 26.61 20.72 26.03 21.26 27.40 41.56 2435 244 FlXhh/VMRIASUL OPfATIIS COOST 15.27 U.99 14.1? 91.05 13.31 133 13.U5 U13.6 13T l3.24 13.31 13.21 13.21 13.23 13.24 13.31 t3.24 13.41 1.4 13.42 1 08104/91 10:25 A flu a *n 1.0.3, SUE _0 u= DED, Phtce, oZiEiU a JMICA aSy PCil naUsv AID IESWM Puntua maY 3 PThaw SUC fiACAL NALYSJS - CA I - SMINS M UML 246 1991 19W2 19935 199l 1995 1994 1997 1994 1999 2000 2001 20 2003 2094 2051 201 207t2085 209218 z47 A NNMLSP--CIATI' '. '- 240 249 ExI.tin Capital 0.97 0.9o 0.9? 09 09? 09 0.9sr 0.9r 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.9 0.13 0.00 o.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.0 0.00 0.00O 250 Prject Capltal Ws 15 0.00 0.61 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.6 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.3 1.03 1.03 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 25t1....................................................................................,,,,,,- 252 tOTAL MvCIaatM 0.97 1.57 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.0o 1.16 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 0.43 0.0 0.00 0.00 253 2S4 CAPITAL msnfEMt - POJCT 0.00 9.10 6.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2S5 3LW M1N1EiANCO m 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.S 5 2.S 5 2.50 2.S 0 2.50 2.50 2. 30 2.30 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.0 257 2.S0 11.60 1.9 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.S0 2.S0 2.S0 2.S0 2.5 2.50 2.S0 2.5D 2.50 2.90 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 258 FINAICIU SUIIEII 259 t 1991 1992 15 194 19 19 17 1990 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2001 2005 26 M0 20 20 201 260 261 Project Inntmt O.O. 9.10 6.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 262 Locat C _onpnt 25.01 0.00 2.55 1.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0OD 26 f3orati comp#nt 72.G0 0.00 6.SS 4.61 0.00 .O00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 264 265 LeaL t 266.* 67 Loct l pity Fc 0.m 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 u.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2" Locot Cub Financed 100.01 0.00 2.SS 1.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 249 Loa Lemn fInwvd 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ; 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 270 Loat Lam OLututatd 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 271 Lem _a pa t oe yet 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 m Interest - Xof WS too 12.0X 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.O0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0o m m2 Forein Caqwant 275 .... ...... 2t6 foelir Equty Financed 0.S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 277 lferin Lo Fl,d 100.01 0.00 6.SS 4.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 275 foeIgn Loon autstanding 0.00 6.55 11.16 11.16 10.04 6.93 L.5 6.49 5.58 4.46 3.35 2.23 1.12 0.00 0.00 0.O0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 279 tn _epVMmnt oa ys 10 0.00 0.00 0.011 0.00 1.12 1.12 1.12 l12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 210 eest * X of WS 1., 12.01 0.00 0.79 1.34 1.4 1.21 1.07 0.94 0.00 0.67 O.S4 0.40 0.27 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 00 1 4001 tOs2S M FILE n FI 1.0.3. UMI 1111, M3UIlno, MMC, 61611 2 WCA Sllm SIIRP 11M161 An 1933 fAIS 1W 3 h 1uM IFIOI IDJ *3*1.M3S1 * CAN I * WlUI AS UML l _ oU 24 Od Cpltalt Ewtumt 5.s 15.ll 24.96 31.36 31.36 31.36 31. 31.36 3.6 31.36 361.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.3 3136 3136 31.36. 28 tobtl apvital Imom.t 15.l6 24.95 31.6 31.36 31.36 31.36 31 .36 3 S .3 31.36 1.3 6 31.3 31.36 31.36 31.3 6 3.36 31.3 31. 36 M3.6 31.36 206 DecIlinto Islne 15.86 23.37 2.44 249 22.22 20.00 1.OO 1.20 14.58 13.t2 11.8l 10.4 9.5 &6.6 t.15 6.9 6.25 5.11 5.0 4.58 2 AbtAt1 Atlome ss 10.01 1.59 2.34 2.74 2.47 2.22 2.00 1.0 t.1 1.4 1.3t 1.18 1.06 0.957r 6 0.17 0.70 0.63 0.56 031 045 280 291 IOp.oJa 100.05 293 La lItom r 0.0X 295 296 166Ul WU IIUtlTY/SIUSIIVI 1001 1001t 1001 1001; 1W001 1001 1001i 1001S 1001 1001S 101 1001 1001 1001 1i001 1001t 1001 1001 101 00 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1 $l4 toss an nLE a tlW t.0.3, MUno , _1o ovu, MCf, femu I f t IF"At SAM - CMI - alUM W M~~~~~~~~~ I00 "amlll sums ucm suMt am" wu. ". "rua M n Mauowm 3a sateois Puaun amIISIISN MSTAWEUNTZ-1 -tWWW-121U2KU2F9 M M MS W S U 4USS u8 Cost of ftles 1991 1T2s 195O,S 19942 1991 1996 MM MU 1999 00 2001 2002 30 2004 2003 ML" #V0? Ua 2U09 1o0 301 . .*- ---................*--- ......0.... ... .*- .................. ... ........... *. 0. ... . ...... ... .. ........ 302 Isle taaa 55s.9319.4 10.94 209.3 23.1 235.41 1551 37r.077.41 291.12 24.2 267.90296.06216.83 38.3297 313.63n 12342 31.5 30 CeSI of Isl 231.? 17.71 160.6? 1s.29 15.24 206.79 23469 23.6 256.615 26940 315.10 57.29 215.6 2648 26.3 266.5 279.4423.8 29.7060 305 Son " in 24.05 223 24.0? 26.0 27 242 3082 30.31 31.36 315 31.12 30.61 31.03 31.99 330 329 344 36.1 33 40.03 306 Oprtblpetpe1e 84 .o85 843 8.65 845 845 845 8AG 845 845 GA 8A5 8A 845 845 54 L5 845 8.0 84 8a 8O 307 prsatnEs Ixps15.27 1399141 0.31 13.33 1.51 U.36 13.3 3.24 13.3 U. 13 31 13.24 13.24 1.2 . t134 U." U.42 3_ SsW Rskatenuwe ELxpi 25 2.50 2.50 2.50.2.50.50 2.5 2.50 2.S0 2.50 2.50 25 2 2.50 2.50 2.50s 2.50 310 tetm fre qrti.m 1494 1.05 16.5 1.1T 20.19 21.45 23.4 23.10 24.14 24.43 23.96 3.5 M. 24.91 25.95 3.89 2. 28.5 30.76 327 311 312 ntet t_a.. 4.S2 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 452 4.52 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.52 452 4.5 31 Interest lap.. 0.13 0.13 0.9 1.47 1.4r 1.33 1.20 t.06 0.13 0.80 046 0.53 0.40 02 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.U 01 01 314.. .............. . . . . . .............. . ... 315 an-pmatne Inm 4.3 3.61 305 30. 3.19 3.32 3.6 3.S9 3.72 38 3.9 4.13 4.26 4.39 4.39 4.3 4.3 4.39 4.3 .3 31? Profit xor Tax" 19.33 U169 19.10 22.22 23.98 24.77 26.10 26.69 27.86 28.29 2. VA.6 2r.25 29.30 3034 30.28 3.72 33.24 35.16 37.15 316 319 Less Investment Alti..m 20.05 0.06 1.82 1.28 0.00 o.0o 0.00 0.OD Qoo 0.00 O.O 0.00 0.0 OD 0 O. . O.60 o.oo Lo. 0.e00 0.0 0.00 320 Less AMO1IItomin 1.S9 2.34 2.74 2.4? 2.22 2.00 1t.0 1.42 1.46 1.31 18 1.06 0.96 066 0.77 0.70 045 0.S6 0.51 0.46 321 . ..O..................................................................... - ....._ . 322 TAXN4E llGnIE 17.74 14.53 15.08 19.1 21.r5 227 n s.11 25.0? 26.40 26.97 26.77 26.61 27.29 2S.44 29.56 29.8 3t.09 3MO6 345S 3649 323 324 tenc 'taxs 33.33 5.91 4.84 S.03 6.58 7.25 7.S9 8.37 8.36 8.00 8.99 8.92 8&.6 9.09 9.48 9.85 9.6 106 10.69 115 1SS I 2. 3Z NIt ProfIt 13.42 13.5 146.0W 15.4 16.73 17.18 16.54 18.34 19.06 19.30 19.03 18.30 19.14 19.82 20.46 20.42 21.5 22.3S 25.61 26.92 32? 328 31V0 m O s X of Met p 004 0.00 11.08 11.26 12.51 13.38 1.74 14.3S 14.J7 15.2S ff.44 1S52 tS.04 15.31 15.6 6.9 %1.31 17.08 1T.88 19 19.94 329 PRQftt TO 51tAI1ED 18 20.05 13.42 2.77 2.81 3.13 3.35 3.44 3.71 36r 3.81 3.66 3.81 3.76 3J8 3.96 4.10 4.00 42V 44? 4.72 4.96 330 331 91611 WAl4E OF PlV 6 89 12.Wi DISCUO8T MAU 92.2 332 "* I 9U118 127.2 I oh669 l"M U Flu * 71i81F 1.0.3. mu wit, 183138 UWDe . Mt=. ammii 2ma ..a l v amu An IUWSUEU uMss stiw 3 mmw imu fUAI1m. havLIs - cDU - *rimsS As Um 334 33 336 t81SI sua sfw 338 W"O 1991 199t 991 1995 1996 197E 19 t 2001 2 082 MU 200 U 20043W U7M MY 8 2N9 2010 3 .... . . . . .... .... .... .... ..... . ... .... .... .... .... 340 MUST 341 -- 342 CunwsU muft. 343 cuib fn 8.* 19.21 -0.79 9.42 14.13 15.13 17.18 20.05 21.16 25.51 f.f 3-A2.26 36.45 40.90 43.9 4U.46 52.5S 7.3SS 61.04 65.97 46.8 72.22 344 RNelXviles *d 30 1t.26 21.04 16.08 15.20 17.21 18.34 19.35 21UM2 21.95 23462 25.93 24.18 2316 24.33 Z4.40 21.77 244 2SJS0 2A44 27.5 26.48 34S Iaentv elws 11.54 346 -"ndm/tWplks *5 20 11.49 7.0S 6.61 9.23 10.37 10.96 12.48 12.50 13.38 13.50 13.74 13.31 13.42 13.31 13.2 13.4$ 13.78 1442 14.n5 14.52 347 * sroect *s 20 14.02 10.2 10.13 11.47 .2 12.90 14.S5 U1.6 15.1 15.95 16.12 15.78 16.22 16.26 16.51 16.42 17.20 17.76 18.34 1W899 36 ......................................... .......................................................... ........... ....... ............,__.. ___..... _...... ._ 349 ot*% Current Aests 49.01 45.75 43.47 46.W 53.04 50.12 63.26 70.01 4.s 80.74 85.44 90.49 9348 97.93 101.66 l07.08 112.0J 11t7J. 122.98 13.41 143.21 351 fixed beetsPlitt Ins See 352 ate" 1S3.6 15.86 24.96 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 n 3 .36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 353 s. A_cm Oeprs 5.10 6.0r T.6 9.64 11.64 13S4 15.61 17.64 19.6 21.64 2344 25.64 26.a0 27.83 28.47 29.90 3O.95 31.36 3136 t.36 31.36 354.. -- 35S lot bests In SwIce 10.76 9.40 1.32 21.72 19.72 17.72 13.72 13.72 11.72 9.72 7.72 5.72 4.56 3.53 2.49 .46 0.43 0.O0 0.O 0.0o 0.00 356 357 Invsstmtnt in Its* ell.07 11.07 11.07 11.o7 11.07 1.0or 1.0or 11.07 11.07 11.07 1.OT 11.07 1.O7 11.0 1. 11.07 11.0 11.07 11.07 l.O 11.0? 11.07 XS v v*--X--4v-*^^ ........I................................................... .* ... -..................................................... . ..........._ 359 Total usets 70.85 66.62 71.86 78.67 83.81 66.91 90.06 94.60 97.39 101.54 101.44 1O7.28 109.31 112.53 115.23 119.61 123.s5 t28.88 134.0 139.48 145.2 360 Vt. 1 4910191 lOtsI A PtLE n_31 U.K. S , i.@C,ai_aw, PRIcE, 0 Xo0 t 2 JIIWCA I 101 OWN I TR AS IXUVgM PULM0 SIMW 3 hTWL ET PFSIAL AlMIS * CUE I - WhhI.S AS IML 3a pavables *s. 30 .0 19.06 14.20 132 15.06 16.05 17.00 19.2 19.4 21.05 21.34 2. 21.15 2178 21.7T 2206 21.92 2. 2. 243.3 8.19 364 Intetrt Cturbet lDeb 0. 0.22 1.01 1.56 1.5G 1.43 1.29 1.16 1.03 0.9 0.76 042 0.49 0.36 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.2 366 392 19.28 15.20 14.76 1643 17.47 15.29 20.45 20.4 21.94 .10 2248 2J." 2.14 21.99 22.2 25 23.9 23. 24640 .41 367 368 L 1 TWaO Debt 1.51 1.S1 8.06 12.67 12.67 11.56 10.4 9.32 8.21 7.09 5." 48 3.75 2 1.51 1.St 1.St 1.51 1. 1.51 1.St 369 370 PlEd In Capitat 37 OND 0S3.6 S3S6 3.6 6 36A S36 3.6 346 3.4 3.46 S.4 6 S."6 3.66 346 S36 S.4 36 3.66 3.6S 36. 32 8dm- faelu, fntO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 'O.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 373 Local PFtm 10 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 OAO. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ...................................................................... ............................................. .... ............................, __ 7S Total 3." 346 3.6 3.66 3."6 .66 3.6 36 346 3.66 3.6 346 3 3 S." 3. 346 36 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.66 376 371 etalW sEmim 28.JS 42.1? 4.94 47J.5 5.8 S422 ST.66 6 .04 68.8S 72.71 76.1 s3.2 3.10 8.0 92.16 9.2S M.A 10.99 109.71 11 .69 3 p88.....................-.-*..--.................-.-...................................,.,,..,.,,...,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,_,___,,,,__,,,,,_,____,,,_ 3s 39 Totalt lbtIItl 70,SS 16.62 71.86 78.57 83.84 86.91 90.0S 94.60 97.39 101.S4 1O4.44 107.28 109.31 112.53 1S5.23 119.61 12S.S7 t288 131.05 139 48 14S.28 380 381 O/E IATIO(LTDAIPO.) s.m 3.S3 15.22 21.02 t9.9% 17.3 15.3 13.22 11.22 9.33 7.6 6.02 4.5 3.0 t.7X 142 1.53 1.53 1.43 1.41 1.33 3. 363 I s1m4mn1 0s51 An FIll U FINF 1.0.3, LASE NMSIt, REUCE WAU, PRICE, GUMtON 2 JMIICA _lit03 E I 1311 MESi 1AN h1\Id "Min WT 3 P111M STON FINCIAL ANAL"TIS - CA - ElSfh S IISM 3m 3M6 I023R AM5 APFUICATIUI OF FuM$ 388 3W SURCE Of FUn 199 1 199 199t 19 1996 1997 18 199 2000 20 20 20 20 05 26 20 01 20 2010 391 Mat frcl qpaatln. 13.4 13.85 4.07 15. 16*.73 17.18 18.54 18. 19.06 19.30 19.03 18.80 19.14 19.82 20.48 20.42 21.35 22.3 23.1 24.92 392 Dbprcletion 0.97 1.ST 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.16 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.03 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 393 o.0 0.00 6.SS 4.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 394 Equity 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39 SALAHCIUS ITB1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 '0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 396 .__.......... . .... . .......-- 397 Totatl Souce 14.38 21.97 20.68 17.44 18.73 19.18 20.S4 20.34 21.06 21.30 21.03 19.97 20.17 20.85 21.S2 21.45 21.78 22.35 23.61 24.92 39B _5 399 APFlICATIO OF fUIDS 400 _ 401 In1rese In Urwking Capital 14.38 1.80 3.02 S.13 4.23 4.32 4.59 4.55 4.70 4.74 4.69 3.81 3.75 3.88 S.13 5.12 4.70 4.47 4.72 4.98 402 Capital I.woatmntC_ truct 0.00 9.10 6.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 403 Princript RaMwfnt - Y1O.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 404 tntert 2epamwnt (pwt of oparatfn 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 405 DvIidmn Pasant -oSW Trawu 0.00 11.06 11.26 12.51 13.38 13.74 14.83 14.67 1S2S 1S.44 15.22 15.04 15.31 15.86 16.39 16.34 17.08 t7.88 18.89 19.94 406 Divided Payment F foroign 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 407 DivIdend Payment - Loai Part 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 408 .*-*------................................... ----.-...........__._.... __............................................... 409 Tote AWticatIon 14.30 21.9? 20.68 1T.6" 18. 19.18 20.4 20.34 21.06 21.30 21.03 19.97 20.17 20.85 2.52 21.45 21.78 22.35 2.6 24.92 410 411 1 V0810119 1QS: M FILE a *33l33 1.0.3, 3A3E 33383, mUCID _WU, MO, 1niu 2 JmIICA Eow Is tEt? IlE It IEStSEhI PA"tRINM 0031 3 #uuo I BP' u"Um AWtists * CASE * - m. 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CLAr 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.000.0 00 0.0 00 0.0 00 0.0 00 0.0 00 0.000 0.0 .0 0.0 .0 64S 0t.tw Fe tod 0. oe00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0. 0.00 613 iELl ! 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ........................................ 614 AM WE POINT MR ) 615 WEI CAN FLWn 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 61& 6" ms3 WAE Of iKT cA1 UIIn I t2. 0.00 6" t10 MUD 0 m I Ol50/" 12:04 11 P FILL a FhUhI 1.3.1. WM HAR6S, ROOM MW C 1M FOREIG 2 JJA C% lEtIUW fSCTO t 811116 AU tUSIIUT FIA 111 3 PUsOE SECTOr I fElClIL _MAsIS - CAN I USnis As toL 4. S 1990 191 992 1993 194 1995 19 1997 198 1999 20 2001 2002 2003 2001 200 26 2W 203 2009 210M r WM, FORCS M MOA - u ttiha of bwmis 9 10 LOCAL OMIA Il 51115 12 PROE . 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.1? 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 03X 13 SaTA 0.42 0." 0.4 0.48 0.51 0.53 0.56 0.59 0.62 0.65 0.66 0.71 0.75 0.79 0.3 0.87 091 0.96 1.00 1.05 14 IWAS. LEADED 0.93 0.85 0.77 0.68 0.S5 0.48 0.37 0.25 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 *0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15 NOCII. S, 10 0.10 0.21 0.33 0.4S O.S8 o.7 O. 1.02 1.18 1.35 1.39 1.43 1.47 1.52 1.56 1.61 1.66 1.71 1.76 1.81 161 mE3TUO 0.84 O.8 0.89 0.92 0.95 0.8 1.02 1.05 1.09 1.12 1.16 1.20 1.24 1.29 1.33 1.38 1.42 1.47 1.53 1.5 t1 AUTO OIESEL 1.35 1.51 1.65 2.14 1.69 1."8 1.7 1.62 1.69 1.70 1.81 1.93 2.06 2.11 2.15 2.31 2.48 2.54 2.60 2.67 18 EIARlE DIEWL 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 O.4S 0.46 0.4? 0.48 0.49 0.S 0.S2 0.53 0.54 0.56 0M 0.59 0.60 19 KfAW fUEL OIL 4.SS 4.71 4.8S 4.5 5.10 S.13 5.32 4.74 4.62 4.00 4.11 3.46 3.ST 3.73 3.90 3.27 3. 3.54 3.74 3.91 > 20 ASPL 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.14 O.1S 0.16 0.16 0:1T 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.29 031 0.33 21...................................................................................................._. ___._.______ 22 8.75 9.18 9.58 9.90 10.10 10.24 10.58 1O.03 10.11 9.63 10.00 9.62 10.01 10.38 10.76 1O.46 10 11-3 11.78 12.23 23 1*9031 24 . 25 PSPA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26 UTANE 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27 NOS 0* 0.00 0.00 O.0 0.32 0.30 0.67 0.66 O.S9 0.59 O.%4 O.52 0.47 O.SO 0.4 0.34 0.20 O.04 0.00 O.OS 28 KEUlhR 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.22 0.19 0.26 0.21 0.39 0.32 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.21 0.13 0.00 29 AUTO OIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 30 1AINE DIESL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 31 WAV FUEL OIL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 32 .................. .................................... ................ ................................,,,,.............. ........................ ....................... ......... ................................. 33 1.28 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.54 0.49 0.93 0.8r 0.98 0.91 0.77 0.76 0.73 0.50 0.43 0.31 0.36 0.25 0.13 0.05 tP4 m I l0l9 12g0 FM FtLE a FIt 1.3.1, USE MStN MUM &S , M FmtW ijca mmcAI I aI twa smrnu me :Asumw nuum am 3 PEIULM 60dm UUUCM. aMISIt - CNNs I - 31365At =JAL 35 JfmI cu mmotVAkmIa tiuatr 36 Prquis )IM PM?OF 1613 S R 231mw ) so 6..dtb. Om$", tmodoo 39 £ws/Twbo 40 ADS (Auto hkat) 41 blstm SloEt 42 P L_nI - .a#flsg 44 ~~~~0.00 0.00 0.00 L.0 0.OO 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 L 0.00 0.00 0.60.0 0.6 0.60CA 0.00.6 46 101*IAL 6130 10.03 9.10 9.51019 101 10.73OJ 11.51 10.98 11.09 1051 10.77 10.3 10.73 10.63 11.1" 10.10 1121 11.7 I1.91 1223 47 43 49 1990 199 1992 199 1991 1995 19on 199 19619926 200 260 am0 200 26 260 266 269 am 53 PUPME 0.65 0.09 0.09 0.60 0.60 0.60 LMI 0.60 0.09 0.10 0.11 L. 0.1 0.1 0.1T 0.O 0.1 0."90. 0.20 L 34 60163E 0.15 0.30 0.3 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.IS 0.26 0.39 0.41 0.36 0.42 0.4" 0.55 0.59 041 0." 0."6 0.70 0.77 Ss Nor" 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.OD 0.00 0.b 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.00 56 451011133 0.01 0.00 .060 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.OO 0.60 0.O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0L00 0.60 0.00 5?T0 AMIEKL 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.60 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 is OM5N li 0336 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.O0 0.00 0.60 0.00 L0. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.1 L.3 59OE NUVOIOL In .6 2.36 2.5? 04 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.21 0.4" 0.2 0.46 0.00 G.0 0.00 40 c o*st Us *-o--* ................................................ ....................... ..... .............. 61 1.26 2.95 2.90 0.96 09 0.31 0.31 0.36 0.0a47 *.51 0.4 0.55 0.0 0.0 1.eo 0.81 1.2? 0.6 145 1.51 6a I oo4v1 1204 pH wits * flfE 1.3.1. ME ROU. RE E & PRICE1 52, M "Kim a2 JmWCA EvEN SClOt SR $=E MID IW NEt PUUWIUhUIIV WT 3 RaOLUN SItoR fifUaAl. aMANAVSS - CAUi I - uIUIs AS lWJL l",Camt aUI - dlitlo of bwml 65 ..... 6 Wm s.s2 0.00 0.00 6.3r .3 .40.2 r.n9 SA.7 4.97 4.95 S.91 540 0.0o 0.00 0.20 4.30 6.16 6.53 6.36 a7 Uri? L.o 2.59 2.74 0.00 0.00 0.0O 0.00 0.00 LD 0.00 0.O 0.00 0.00 4.36 4.30 3.94 0.56 0.00 0.0 0.OD e IsTW 0.00 0.00 L.o0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 L.oo 3.36 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0o.0 0.43 69 MMa 000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.ao 0.0o 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.o0 0.00 0.00 0.00 O0.0 0.00 70 for-so 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0D0 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 7n OatERtI 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13 TOtAL Mu ClOSE 5.82 2.9 2.7 6 8.34 8.40 a .72 7.79 .S. 7.54 6.95 S.91 5.60 4.3 4.J0 4.16 440 6.16 6.53 7.21 74 ?5 76 SICESM - SlitwU of barrs 78 SWJUIE 0.09 0.06 .O0t 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.07 0.08 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 O.10 O.10 0.tO 0.11 0.11 0.10 791 5913 2.04 1.4 1.50 0.79 0.9? 0.9 146 146 1.15 1.4? 1A2 2.01 2.0? 2.74 2.72 245 2.12 1.75 1.71 146 00 OM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 . 81 US OIL 1.24 2.36 2.S4 2.31 1.33 1.33 1.31 1.39 0.94 1.31 t.86 2.24 2.50 3.6 3.28 349 3.ZP .S 2.95 2.26 83 TOtAL SPVIES 3.37 3.88 4.11 3.19 2.41 2.41 2.9t 3.16 2.16 2.6 3.78 4.S 4.67 6.02 6.1 6.24 S.52 5.00 4.77 4.02 84 65 as 1 AW491 tOl in FlU * 16311 1.3.1, _AS lGIN* UmUCID 1U 5 NI, C 35M fPOl 2 _MMc I I a own lmIuIf m 1_uW SKUT Sulm 3 PITN 11' SI FIWICIL AULSIS * CAW I - WSUE U UUAL * 1990 t191192 t 3 19 9 t 19 199 1 1999 nm 201 312 _ UK4 an UK 257 1 1 310 a ..* ..* . .. . *.* *... *--- *-- - *-- . go - n room PlIES - u*S_ 91 92 93 3POll rISC? 93t15 (C55) 94 ....................... f farm 20.41 17.94 16.54 17.12 17.1 1642 19.47 3.22 21.03 21.64 21.6 21.48 21.X 21. 21.06 21.20 21.2 2138 21.51 21.0 9U SUANK 25.2 21.94 25.19 20.59 21.76 2. 2375 24.72 25.72 26.72 263.9 26.25 26.14 26.0 2.76 25.93 N0 2. 16 26.3 MAT 97 NO23 32.94 27.68 24.92 25.61 26.96 . 29.71 S1.19 32.7 34.36 34.01 33.46 33.44 33.21 2.66 33.11t 3M 334 33.1 33.96 9g mO.ImUO 3356 28.77 5.7 26.68 27.5 29.17 30.60 32A. 33.68 35.2 34.92 34.56 34.34 34.12 33.76 34.01 34.1 343 31.62 34.6 9 AU DIaIL 31.32 26.50 23.6 24.51 2.62 36.8 218.22 29.43 51.1 32.45 32.32 .31.9 31.75 31.56 31. 31.4 3157 31.51 32.04 3225 108 1Min ISEL 30.30 25.3 22.69 23.71 4.79 26.00 23 2L.47 38.13 31.59 31. 30.94 3D.4 30.53 30.21 30.44 30.54 30.77 31.00 31t22 101 W . 01MM 16.53 14M. 12.S6 13.01 3.S 14. 14.96% 15.9 16.48 17.26 17.09 16.92 16.5 16.70 16.52 IS 1670 166 16.95 17.07 1t RoRT P T "atRICES; WMIAUMF 9USd PI'el 106 PgWauE 11.61 6.88 7.21 7.S 7.92 8.42 5.96 9.32 10.53 11.33 11.15 10.97 10.66 10.7S 10.57 10.69 10.15 10-.8 11.00 11.13 1 JT8US 14.62 11.43 9.3n 9.74 10.25 10.91 11.60 12.54 13.54 14.54 14.32 14.10 13.96 13.2 13D 13.7 1.82 1.93 1.14 14.29 1086 MAM 30.68 25.56 22.52 23.35 24.4 25.65 27.02 2B.50 30.09 31.66 11.31 30.96 30.74 30.52 30.17 30.41 30.53 30.7' 31.02 31.27 109 KEfbItUM 30.94 25.79 22.73 23.6 24.6 25.91 27.26 23.75 30.35 31.94 31.55 31.23 31.01 3.79 30.43 30.6a 30.80 31.04 31.29 31.54 110 AUTO OIESEL 29.33 24.45 21.55 22.34 23.33 24.57 25.5 27.26 2S.78 30.28 29.95 29.61 29.40 29.19 215.6 29.09 29.20 29.43 29.67 29.96 111 UIIE 01DESE 25.36 23.63 20.53 21.59 22.60 23.15 24.99 26 27.82 29.27 20.95 2.2 a8.42 23.22 2. 3.12 25.22 2.45 25.68 2.91 112 IWM fUEL OIL 1 15.13 12.59 11.06 11.49 12.02 12.6 U.31 14.03 14.82 15.60 15.43 1.26 S.15 15.04 14.66 14.96 15.04 15.16 15.29 5.4 13 WM FUEL OIL 2 U.06 13.55 12.06 12."5 U.W 13.71 U.41 15.14 15.9 16.71 16.54 16.36 16.25 16.14 S. 16.09 16.5 16.27 16.39 16. lt4 116 IlRT PARITP i110 Non, Laf 31.43 26.34 23.32 24.1T 2.28 " 65 27.92 29.39 33.98 32.56 32.21 31.86 3S1. 31.42 31.07 31.3 31.43 31. 31.92 32.17 l1p1 ,AMS.UaN 31.4 26.34 23.32 24.1? 23.23 26SS 7.92 29.39 30.98 32.56 32.21 31.36 31.4 31.42 31.6 31.31 31.43 3.6r 31.92 32.17 128 121 I3O0T PMITT m fOR 011T 26.15 23.43 21.81 22.31 22.9" 23.67 24.4U 2.26 26.13 26.99 26.S0 26.61 2649 26.37 26.18 26M31 26.37 26.51 26.64 26.76 122. ... I 061849 MN09 flUE a116ft 1.3.1. ASEMBSI. WUMCED OWAUain, M ones 2 SMICA IF136l UCTU sTAw me WWStIEsNT FU sn5 3 1AL3tMm PE"Tn PIUCIWACI * LAL.s13 - CE I - 3$U3I1I AS U5L 124 1 92 1993 1994 1999 1996 19W 1998 199 2 X001X 201 200X 2001 205 2066 200 20 2009 2010 1 EfIU C61 NRICE D-= ^--- 126 .......... To CIF 12? t 2.3 22.78 . 18.92 19.49 2.20 U." 21.4 240 23.41 24.21 24.0 23.8 2374 23.0 234 2357 23 2.76 .8 2. 128 SUTMIE 2.3? PY 2431 n2S2.6 236 24.13 23.11 26.15 2.09 2.10 29.9 25.5? 2AS 25.51 2.37 281 2830 2. 28.53 2849 8.84 129 =SU, LmED 0 32.31 2.21 24.2 23.05 6.16 27.U 280 3D.2 31.36 33.4 33.09 32.74 32.S2 320 31." 32.19 32.31 32.5 32.3 33.04 130 nows, WM 0.88 32.32 V.2 24.20 5.05 26.1 2.43 n.u 30.28 31.87 33.4 .09 32.74 32.52 32.30 31.95 3. 323 3.5W 32.6 33.05 131 t30/113 1.21 35.0? 29.99 ." 2.8 29.06 30.38 31.81 33.29 34.89 36.48 36.13 35.77 35.5 353 34.9 3522 35.34 35.Ji 35.83 36.03 1323a0o SES 1.17 32.49 27.67 24.63 25.68 26.79 25.04 29.39 38.0 32.32 33.62 33.49 33.16 32.94 32.73 32.40 32La 327SL3 33.21 33.45 13n3 1 &MIEL 1.59 S310 2.22 24.48 25.30 26.36 2V.59 28.9 30.26 31.72 33.18 M.U 32.33 32.33 32.12 31.0 32.3 32u 32.6 32.ss 32.1 134 mERIt FMe OIL 1.S6 18.08 1S.56 14.11 14.56 1S51S 1A5l 16.S2 17.5 184 184.2 18.45 1.48 18J3 16.26 18B 18.20 18.26 13s 18.50 18=. 135 APULT 0.77 26.95 24.20 22.59 23.O8 3.72 24.4S 3.23 26.04 26.91 V.77 27.s 27.38 2.26 2r.1 26.ff 2.08 27.1 2.A 2.42 2V.55 136 137 CBWE .......... 139 BC124 20.28 tr.20 15.24 15.n 16.31 1T.1S U."4 15.95 19.91 20.86 20.72 20.S9 20.52 20.4S 20.31 20.38 205.8 20.45 20.52 20.S9 140 MIT 1T.50 14.77 13.16 13.4 14.25 U.95 I1.S 16.51 17.36 18.21 18.03 17.84 17.72 17.60 17.41 17.54 17.60 17.74 T.87 18.00 141 IST1315 2S.43 19.86 t.60 18.09 t8.72 19.6r 20.67 21.70 22.78 23.91 23.84 23.77 23.70 23.4 23.56 23.56 23.S6 23.56 25.S6 23.S6 142 WAA 19.64 16.66 14.81 tS.29 1S.90 16.70 17.56 18.44 19.37 20.29 20.14 19.98 19.90 19.82 19.67 19.75 19.7? 19.8S 19.95 20.0 14 FICKAOO 25.46 2t.70 19.33 19.09 20.59 21.42 22.72 230 2.95 26.15 26.08 26.00 25.93 25.85 25.76 25.76 2S.78 25.78 25.78 25.78 144011111tE 22.81 19.1? 16.88 17.41 18.08 19.07 20.12 21.17 22.28 23.4 23.37 23.3 23.2 23.1S 23.08 23.08 23.08 23.08 23.0 23.48 145 146 SPIC 147 . ....... u8s WhE 20.72 17.49 5.58 16.11 16.32 1t72 1.49 19.43 20.43 21.43 21.21 2D.99 20.5 20.71 20.49 2.64 20.71 25.87 21.0 21.18 149 369tl3 26.40 22.12 19.58 20.30 21.23 22.30 23.45 24.69 26.02 27.34 2.05 26.76 26.57 26.39 26.09 2630 2.9 20 26.8t 27.01 1501lO 32.63 27.50 24.47 25.32 26.44 27.72 29.09 30.58 32.18 33.77 33.41 33.06 32.86 32.62 32.26 32.51 32.63 32.6 33.12 33.3 151 GU OIL 29.00 24.13 21.25 22.06 23.13 243 25.6 2.05 28.57 30.0 29.74 29.40 29.19 28.96 28.65 28.68 2.99 29.23 29.46 29.70 I 0d191 I2s00W FI E£ e 91)Rf 1.3.1. SAR MRI*RDCDDW IE* 15 Uuim 2 JlCA MU $E0 81816 AM IUVESUE1T01 PulANNIN qltT 3 P_TNOLSU S flO UIUD L ALMlS -CAE I - $MM= AS LUI 153 lSA 155 156 990 1 199 199 1994 195 6 9 193 "Pt 2000 201 202 200 0M 200 2006 MY UN 30 21 l5r ** --..... . .... . .... . .... . .... . .... . .... . ..,. ,,,., ,,,, .... .... .... .... .... .. .--. -. --- *--*--- 18IIUOJm t l S - U0 159 160 161 OWSTIC 317T EVEI (l aplvstw* of twat awrenc) l6a PReopE 2.3 2.22 2.17 2.35 2.S6 2.79 3.05 3.32 3.61 3.92 4.05 4.25 4.45 44A 4.81 5.11 5.38 548 5.99 6.33 I6" 6W9A7E 11.42 10.6S 1o.3 11.23 12.23 13.36 14.62 1S.90 17.31 t8.82 19.61 20.44 21.35 22.31 23.24 24.S5 3.83 27.2? 28.79 30.40 16S POCAS, LEADED 30.0? 23.19 18.58 16.98 15.22 3.1S 10.67 7.70 4.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16S OCAS, UlLEMDE 3.34 S.80 7.97 11.32 1S.23 19.73 24.39 30.80 37.57 45.12 4S.99 46.87 47.95 49.05 49.9t S1M1 53.61 SSA4 57.74 59.92 167 XERURl/R5 29.37 25.93 24.11 25.7n 2J.7D 29.92 32.37 35.02 37.94 41.0 4.99 43.00 44.19 45.43 46.S2 48.47 S0.32 52.44 5445 56.96 166 0UTO DIESE#L 43.18 41.77 41.0P 5S.05 45.32 47.17 50.26 49.89 54.S4 57.43 60.54 63.94 67.82 68.93 69.60 71.29 81.08 63.70 86.50 69.43 169 MARtNE DIESEL 11.01 9.92 9.42 10.25 11.09 11.85 12.70 13.60 14.S9 15.61 15.13 16.05 16.34 16.65 16.89 17.45 1t.96 18.S6 19.19 19.64 CD 170 1VW tU£L OIL 62.3S 73.36 66.46 66.44 77.22 81.15 67.93 81.75 06.35 1.22 76.71 63.98 65.S6 68.12 70.45 59.56 61.16 65.10 69.19 72.6 171 ASPH1AL 2.95 2.81 2.18 3.01 3.25 3.55 3.91 4.28 4.69 S.T3 5.40 5.69 6.00 6.33 6.66 7.10 T.S4 .03 8.S6 9.12 SYS Totat 216.66 195.64 184.94 202.39 209.s 222.72 n 0.39 W2.26 257.77 262.26 270.6 264.22 273.66 281.46 288.39 289.40 302.69 3U.42 3342 344.82 '74 is 1t6 fXPORT K5%us USS . terljp Exdhutge 177. ............... 178 51541A1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 179 IANE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1SO0945 30.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.94 7.76 16.05 18.83 17.79 16.61 16.91 16.16 14.59 15.3 12.9 1O.32 6.13 1.12 0.00 1.71 181 iEROflt30 9.26 0.00 0.00 6.97 5.40 4.92 .or 5.96 11.a5 10.26 7.15 T.S2 7.6t 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.63 6.S 4.00 0.00 182 AUTO OIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 183 MARINE OIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 161 MAWV fUEL OIL I -Can I 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.a0 185 3E8W FUEL OIL 2 -tCb SI 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 186 ................ ..............._.----..-.r.-.'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''..''''''........'''''''.'''''''''''' 18Z 39.27 0.00 0.00 6.97 13.34 12.70 25.11 24.81 29.64 26.86 24.06 23.66 22.40 15.37 12.99 10.32 10.96 7.70 4.00 1.71 1 QBW9 UtI t2l Zt n * riEr t3.1., SA_A , _MC 01NN a eIE, ns FMIe 2 J*"Cle fMCEN SUMT $MUSEM *" INMoSMeW FLAIIlS STUM 3 KEtOLEUF SUM tOMM flOkI -t^ GMtnt* I - OUI" AS ta L eo wmUStlmli"|| mret"E an - fW% bentbu"qa If1 stoP 0.00 O0.QO O.OD OJD O.QO LODO OJ0 D .QO O.OD O.OO O.OD O.OO O.OO O.QO OAD *JOO O.Q1 *.Q O.0 O*J 1Y tTA"E.4 0. 00 O.tO O. 0O 0.00 O.OO 0.l OADD O,O .OO OwOO O.OO 0.00 O.0 D .OO SAO *JDO *.0 *.QO O. O .QQ m9 WMfF 0.0o e.oo o.oo o.oo o.0o *.QQ 0.0O O.0 W .OD O.OO O.OO O.GO O.00 O.QO DMO OJDD 0.00 O.0O 0.00 OJQO M9 Egu SJU .OD 0.00 o.ao 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.OD 0.00 0.00 0.0D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.OD *.00 C; O 0.00 §.00 O J O 195fA trDIMEE om Ot 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0 .00 0.08' O.OD *.00 O.QO o.oo 0.00 0.0 0 0. 90 OJO .00 0.00 1 0.00 LoL 0.00 19S MINlE WBEL 0.00 n 0.00 0.00 Le 0.00 O.DOO .ao O.JO O.OD O.OD .0 0.00 * .00 0. 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.OD GA OD IVt EfV FUE OIL I 0.M 000 O.D .CO 0 AO O.LO 0.03 O.OD O.00 L.O 0.90 0.00 O 0.00 0.00 0.00 *JG 0.00 O .OD 0 .0 00 0-0 OJOO 19D E^rr nFU OIL 2 *.00 0.00 0.00 oe 0.00 O. D 0.00 0.00 O.C0 D 0. 90 O.OD 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.OD O.OD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A 2Q CIA.J O 0.00 O.D0.90 GA00O.OD O.OD O.OD . 0.00 0.00 0.00.L 0.00 O.OD 0.00 0.00 0.0 0O.tO 0.00 SOJO 20 TOTAL RI"EWINES - u1s" 2s5.nf "S9." It4.94 20*.36 W2.WP M.41 Z6.51 Z6.Wt 28.41 291.12 294.22 2BJ." 2.06.0 MM.8 301.39 MIss. 31.6 124.12 334462 346b5 20S 20 tS9 lm ts ts t l99 t ms tIs t" ZOO 20s 2ao 201 X 200S 2006 zoo 200 200 amt my-*** v .... ........ .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... ,,, ,,,, ,,,, ,,,-. 2" rfne" CSTS - Uso 2t0 211 CMAME 212 ------- 21 KM2 t1r.98 o.oo o.oo t00.02 t3.0S 1".04 I5r.20 14r.s3 10.88 103.79 IU.02 12t.72 1 U 8t . 0.00 0.00 .4.17 Ws12.0% IZ 4.08 t131. 2U Baifr 0.00 3S.2r 36.12 0.00 0.00 O.OD o.ao o.oo O.OD 0.00 0.00 0.09 *.00 MI.S 74.79 69.40 10.22 o.eo o.ao O.QO 2tS I Tfl 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n7.0r 61.Vr 0.00 o.oo 0.0D 0.00 0.90 0.00 O.0OAD 0.00 O.O9.61 2t6 NAV 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.eo O.0000 OD 0.00 o.ao o.aoO.O 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.o .oo o.eo O.OQ 0. 0 .00 9.00 2tz fOWaDaS 0.09 0.00 0.00 o.eo o.co 0.00 o.oo o.oo 0.00 o.oo o.oo 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 D."O 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 218 Golan .00 *.ao 0.00 0.00 o.oo 0.00 9.60 0.90 0.00 0.90 0.00 LO* .00 @.0 .00 0.0O 0.00 0.00 0.0t O.OD 0.00 22 TOTAL MU CADE IIRW RtST 3t.8 .V 36.12 ta0.02 136.05 t4.04 SS.20 WMIS7.0 1059 .06 I".02 121.72 114.81 T?.15 74.79 n.sr sr.7 n*.t.0 M ISO.9t 22t I 66101191 12SO on FILE a FIlUF 1.3.1. MU MU=. REDUCED ORW I PRICE, 753 FoEI 2 AmiCh now SECTOR IUT4T AI tIlfws PS1US mm 3 PE1UI SECTOR PIUAL ANALYSIS - CASE I - 8L1u1 AS UIAL 223 0IKlES 224 . 225 WYAn 1.81 1.09 1.02 1.4? 1.18 1.8? 2.09 2.06 1.49 1.4 2.25 2.07 2.05 2.12 2.09 2.11 2.12 2.29 2.0 2.16 226 PTNA 53.86 32.3T 29.45 16.08 2054 21.73 3.74 41.00 30.01 40.32 49.17 5S3.81 54. 72.23 70.65 6968 56.0? 46.50 45.19 44.6 22z WEil 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 228 GAS OIl SS.98 6.90 54.07 So.9? 30.81 32.35 33.69 37.62 26.80 39.40 55.25 65.90 73.10 92.03 94.00 1oo.6? 95.45 91.95 06.99 0.96 229 --.... ...- ..................._................ __ ........ .... _................... ... 230 TOTAL VICES IMPRTS 91.6 90.36 84.55 68.52 53.13 55.92 70.53 80.67 58.30 81.3 106.66 121.78 130.14 16.38 66.5 172.4 153a 140.74 135.08 114.01 231 232 PIXUIT INPORTS 233 . 231 PROPANE 0.97 1.6" 1.57 1.44 1.37 1.43 t.49 1.0 1.84 2.1S 2.4S 2.6 2.8t 3.41 3.62 3.79 3.60 3.96 432 4.4z 235S UAe 3.65 6.57 6.41 4.96 4.69 5.39 5.4r 6.86 9.95 1t.02 9.96 11.13 12.12 14.42 15.34 16.56 16.61 17.28 18.44 20.29 236 HOURS 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0o 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 23 EO/TW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 238 ATo DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CIO 239 MRINE DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.64 16.8t 240 NEVY PEL OIL 17.61 35.e8 32.22 8.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.15 3.47' 7.66 0.36 7.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 241 . . . . . . . ......-.-.____...__._._.,,___,,___,,,,____,,,,,,,,___,,.,.__,,,____,,,,,_.___,. 24S TOTAL COST 0 P1O0/RAA NtIS. 22.23 44.09 40.20 14.75 6.05 6.82 6.96 8.55 11.79 13.17 12.41 13.79 20.08 21.31 26.61 20.72 28.03 21.26 27.40 41.56 243 244 FIXED/VARIAL ^OtPERATIUB COST 15.27. 1.99 14.17 13.05 13.31 13.33 13.51 13.36 13.3? 13.24 1.31 13.21 13.21 13.24 13.24 13.4 .13.24 13.41 U.44 13.42 I O6O419 12:041 PR lILE a PHOEF 1.3.1t AS ORIN, RSUCED _A PRICE. M Fohl= 2 JAICA NEIT WT STRAT E AID tWiStIeT PUM SIM 3 PETOMfN SECTOR FIEACAL ANALMS - CASE I - INESS AS UML 246 191t 1992 1 1994 1995 1996 199? 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20 20 2 2M 2006 2009 2010 24?AUKL DEPRECIATIO .................... .... ... .... ... .... .... .... .... _... .... ........ . .. .... ... 2 Existitn Capital 0.9? 0.9? 0.9? 0.9? 0.9? 0.9? 0.9?. 0.9? 0.97 0.9 0.9? 0.9? 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 250 Project Capitel yrs 15 0.00 0.61 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 L.0S 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 251.. ... ..... .. ............ .. ... .. ....... ........ ....... .. ............ .......... .. .......... ..... ..... .. .. 252 TMTAL ODPRECIATION 0.9? I.ST 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 200 1.16 1.0 1.03 1.03 1.03 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 253 254 CAPITAL INVESTIONT - PROJECT 0.00 9.10 6.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C.00 0.00 2SS REA ITEKANCE C06TS 2. 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.S0 2.50 2.50 2.S0 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.30 2.S0 2ST 2.50 11.60 8.90 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.S0 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.S0 2.S0 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 258 FIUrINC STUCTIE 259 -*es**es* 1991 1992 1993 19 19 1995 1996 199? 19 1999 2000 201 2002 2003 2004 205 2006 207 20 209 2010 260 261 Project inwe tmnt 0.00 9.10 6.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 > 262 Locat Caqwnmnt 26.0X 0.00 2.SS 1.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 263 ForeIgn Coaponent 72.03 0.00 6.55 4.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 264 26S Locat Coaq3nent 2.6 . .... 267 Local Equity FInwnced 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 268 tocal Cash Finasnce 10t.0X 0.00 2.SS 1.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 269 Local tLon Finamned 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 270 Locat Loan outstandIng 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27 Leon tepemnt over yrs 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 272 Interest - X of VS teo 12.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 273 274 forIgn Ca_pan t .n.s 276 foreign Equity finanredlOO.03 0.00 6.55 4.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.oe 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 277foegnLoant -cd 0. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 278 oreign Leon Otstandfng 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 279 Lown bopscmat over yis 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20 Interest - of 0/6 loo 12.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 s UsilH ldS mI nu a riua 1.3. mu mmii. mm us _ a 15, m "aim 3 IStUS 0It f_tUL *LtSIS * CaI I - 3UM Al IUML old Capito t 15.U 153 2419 313 3.1.36 31.3 31.6 31.36 31.3 6 31.36 31.36 MW 31.36 31.36 31.3 313 31 31.36 3136 31S US Total Captita hwsm"Mt 15.3 24.96 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.*36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 3136 3136 31.36 3136 31.36 6 kcaitlame 15.66 3.37 zn44 V 6." 22.22 20.00 WAS 16 1A.5 1.12 11. 10 9." 5.U 8.61 715 6.&9 63 S.5 5.6 4* 2 bt.l AlUmm wasIO1.0. 1.59 2.34 2.4 2.47 2.22 2.60 1.30 142 1.46 1.31 1.15 1.06 3.9 0.36 O .77 03.3 O." 6.56 0.51 .46 2J 200 : 291 $W/htro.j 25.3 2M2 rwe ltor ".O 29 Loca l westar 0.39 29 : 29633 US LtnILTV/huhtiVIT 1001t 1333 161 16S0111t 03 1001 103ll 103X 1001 103 1 1#113t 103l 16t 1601 1i001 101S 100 1001 1S 01 r. 1 O1IK8191 12:04 Pt fillE * 2153E 1.3.1. SUE 1UPI, CW3 AMCE m 1S 2 mWca 1it8 MCtml S""aTE SA *0 irI PUDN lhS1w 3 ME1311 UCTO FSUANCIAL MKTI2AIS - CAR I -311163 AS IISM - EllMM "Wit M Lou I t EAT 2 __ 300 11 9 993 19%s 199 9 19 13 199 2m 2t 2"0 n 20 095 2n06 2a 0 20 20s0n 21 301 .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... . ... ... .... . . ... 302 ate$ S a 25M.9 5. 16.94 20.36 223.19 235.41 20.5 26.0 23.41 2.12 294.22 2WA.90 296.06 296.83 301.3 M99.3 3 6 34.2 3344 34s.5s 303 Cot of Satls 231.7 1 72.71 160.? 183.29 15.24 206.79 .69 256.76 25.6S 59 263.10 257.29 265.03 264.64 265.3 265 269.44 23802 296.57 306.50 305 Cos hin 24.5 22.93 24.726.r 27.95 28.62 30.8Z 30.31 31.36 31.52 31.12 30.61 31.03 31.99 33.03 32.9 34.41 36.10 38.0 40.03 306 Otbr op_att n tnome 8.6 8.45 6.65 66S 8.65 8.6S 6.45 84 5 8.45 .S S S .6s 8.65 845 .6 8 845 8.45 845 8.4S 865 8.65 307 operetls Expens 15.2V 13.9 14.17 13.05 1.31 13.33 13.1 13.36 13.3r 13.24 13.31 1.21 121SM 13.24 13.24 13.2' 13 13.41 1.4 13.42 S W Am e Ep 2. 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 SO 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.S0 2.S0 2.50 2.50 2.50 20 2.50 2.50 309 .............................................................................................................................................* 310 Incor Frm Operst $am 14.94 15.08 16.05 19.17 20.79 21.4S Z3.46 2.10 24.14 24.43 23.96 23.S5 23.9r 24.9 25.95 2s.6 2.33 z2.85 30.76 32.76 311 312 Intret Ilm_ 4.52 4.S2 452 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.S2 4.52 4.52 4.S2 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.2 4.52 313 ltrt Espen 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.1 L13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.3 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 315, rqope rting I . 3 4.39 4. 39 4.39 4 .39 4. 39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4. 4 316 *--.................................................................................--- ,. _.,,,, 317 Profit Bef lT_os 19.33 19.47 20.4 23.56 25.18 25.81 2.5 27.5s 28.53 28.82 28.35 27.94 23..7 29.30 30.34 30.28 31.72 33.24 35.16 37.1S 316 319 Is ltmmt Acan 20.0X 0.00 1.62 1.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 320 Les Alist LAttuice 1.59 2.34 2.74 2.47 2.22 2.00 1.60 1.62 146 1.31 1.18 1.06 0.96 0.66 0.7? 0.70 0.43 0.56 0.51 .46 322 TAXABLE IlUa 17.74 15.32 16.41 21.09 22.96 23.84 26.05 25S 27.07 27.51 27.17 26.8a 27.41 26.4 29.56 M.56 31.09 32.6r 34.45 3649 323 324 Inc. Tone 33.335 S.9 SAT 5.47 7.03 7s65 7.95 8 .68 .3 9.02 9.17 9.06 8.96 9.14 9.48 9.85 9.86 10.36 108 11.55 12.23 325 -...-,....-...................___,,,....,,,.,,,,,,__,_,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,__.,,_, 326 ZBt ltrot 13.42 14.37 14.97 16.53 17.53 17.89 9.17 18.67 19.31 19.65 19.29 18.9 19.23 19.ea 20.48 20.42 21.35 22.35 23.61 24.92 32r 32B onUnS _s % of tat p 80.05 0.00 11.50 11.97 13.22 14.02 14.31 15.33 15.10 ts.60 5.72 15.44 15.19 15.35 15.66 16.39 1634 0 1T .8 1.9 1W 9.94 329 3fIT TO 3I1TAIIEO _l 20.05 0.42 2.87 2.99 3.31 3.51 3.#S 3.63 3.77 3.90 3.93 3.86 3.80 3.05 3.96 4.10 4.08 4.27 4.47 4.72 4.98 a0 331 PUEI WAVE OF *IVIE 6 12.005 DISCE1 RATE 94.9 332 T 10011 130.6 IO9101M91 0a ^ FILE a fIl 1.S.1, WA 110 m1, MOM & Plttt5, M 953 a uMrI I m_I uaW MD au11-01m F1LIUUi. 8111 ? S PS1fLm a pUCAL nLMS * CMS - MUM S U 334 336 8ACE0 n 33 1990 9 1992 1993 1991 1995 199 1997 1996 199 2000 2001 2022 2003 20OO no96 200 l08 2009 2010 n 9 .... ..... .... .. . . . . .. . . .. . . . . . . .. . ... ... . .. ... ... . . .. .. . ,,,,,,,,,_,,,,,,,,,,,,,_,... . .. ... ... ... SS1 342 CO T asos 34S Csh In Sm* 19.21 -0.79 8.94 13.07 14.25 17.71 21.96 24.46 30.16 33.96 39.56 45.07 SO.6 55.13 40.06 64.97r 6.95 I3.6 76.39 6081664 344 * tslwbseo * 30 18.26 21.04 16.08 15.20 It.21 16.34 19.35 21A.2 21.9 23.62 23.93 2M.18 23.66 24.33 24.40 24.1? 2444 .80 26.64 24.0 ZOb48 345 wmentorles 11.S4 S"S -Cudaulplkes *d 20 11.49 7.05 6.61 9.23 10.3 10.96 12.48 12.50 13.36 135.0 13.74 13.34 13.42 13314 1.25 3.48 13.75 14462 14.15 1.S2 347 - Pr.ct dyp 20 14.02 10.72 10.13 11.47 12.23 12.90 U1.55 14.63 15.75 15.95 16.12 15.76 16.22 16.26 !6.5 16.4Z 17.20 17.76 16.34 1S499 ---* --------........................................................................................ ---.- ................... - *,--*- 349 Total Cuwrent Assets 49.01 45.75 4z.n 45.02 SLIT 68.65 65.18 73.31 19.25 86.74 92.96 99.11 103.59 109.10 114.09 119.51 121.49 130.23 135.4 140.83 146.63 3SO 351 fised AstsW llnat in Svise 352 Gross 15.66 1.8 24.96 31.36 31.6 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 31.36 316 31.3 3136 31.36 31.36 31.36 353 less Acesn OspQe S.10 6.07 7.T4 944 1144 13.64 5.64 17.64 19.6 21.64 23.64 2S.64 2s.80 27.53 2B.87 29.90 30.93 31.6. 31.36 31.36 31.36 354 ---------------- ..................................... ....................... ---- ..---..-......................... ......... 355 1St Assets In Servlo 10.76 9.60 17.32 21.72 19.72 17.72 15.72 13.72 11.72 9.72 7.7 5.72 4.S6 3.53 2.49 1.46 0.43 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.0O 356 357 Imluwats to usfhidiall.07 tl.Ot 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.0? 1. 10 110 11.0 110 11.7 t1.or 1t.0 3ss ... -.9Y 98..0 WAS WM **---------------------------------W."-----0----- .-- 359 Ttatl Asse2ts 70.6 656i 71.18 77.81 82.9 0r.4 91.97 98.10 101.05 10.5 111SlS.76 t15.90 119.22 183.70 127.45 12.04 135.99 141.30 146.48 151.90 157.70 306 I OW04/91 t2at0 Pl F ILE IU FlUE 1.3.1 SE OM_W0111o IRUCDOM PC& E 75N M FOlIE 2 JMICit SUES tECIWt IUST AND INlESTNT PSIE S W 3 pTgRuOw UcttO FIrUIACIAL auims - CALSI - AI# AS Wm II 362 363 IPavbtsd is. 30 36.70 19.0" 14.20 13.22 15.06 ¶6.05 17.00 19.29 19.46 21.05 21.34 21.62 21.15 21.78 21.77 2206 21.92 2L9? 23.67 24.3 2S.19 364 Inteetst an emirent Sob 0.2 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0. 22 0.22 0.22 0.2 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0 0M 02 0.22 0.22 0.22 365 ..................................................................... ............ . ................................... ................ 366 36.92 19.26 14.42 13.44 *S.29 16.27 17.22 19.51 19.46 21.27 21.56 21.85 21.37 22.01 21.99 2223 22.15 23.19 Z.89 24.60 25.41 367 368 Long Teom obt 1.51 1.S1 1.M 1.1 1.51 1.51 1.S1 1.51 1.S1 1.51 1.S1 1.51 1.1 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.S1 1.51 1.51 1.3t 369 370 ft1d In Capital S371 ON 0% 34I6 36 3.66 3."6 346 3.4 3."6 346. 3 3.66 3.t6 3.t 3.6 3.6 3.66 3. 36 3.46 3.6 S.6 3.46 372 Aodbor - orwelfn SnlOS 0.00 0.00 6.55 11.16 11.16 11.16 11.16 11.16 11.16 11.16 11.16 11.16 11.16 11.16 t h16 11.16 11.16 11.16 11.16 11.16 11.16 373 Local Pm sr 1002 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 374 ......................................................................................... ............................ . .... .......................... ___.____.____.. _ 375 lotaL 3.66 3.66 10.21 14.62 14.62 14.82 14.62 14.62 14.2 14.6 14.82 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.62 14.02 14.62 14.2 14.az 14.62 37' mr Retolm i ardninp 28.75 42.17 45.06 48.01 S1.34 54.65 58.43 a.26 66.03 69.93 73.86 7r.n 31.SZ 85.37 6.33 93.43 97.51 101.78 106.25 110.97 115.9w * t 319 totat Ltabtitifes 70.85 6.62 71.t1 ?7.6t 62.96 87.45 91.97 96.10 102.05 507.53 111.76 115.90 119.22 123.70 127.65 132.04 135.9 U130 4 6.68 151.90 157.70 t380 3110 381 DJ£ RAtitOLIDAlD.8S) S.62 3.52 3.35 3.12 2.92 2.7Z 2.52 2.42 2.2S 2.12 2.0% 1.9% 1.8X 1.78 1.72 142 1.S5 1.St 1.42 1.32 1.2= 302 383 I 00 91 12sO4 N FILE a n_159 1.3.1. 3AM WASIN. _Ut, 1UU £ PRl, M 1 Mte1 2 JMSICA 51_t-o He SIMTE A I_UWSIII UImI am 3 #COUKM SCOS ftlWACiM MAISS - ON I - 003 At UML 385 SU6 MUf AND APPLICATIONS OF MMD$ wr SBW $J E OF RIIIIb t9M 194 19 t9 ttt 19" t9 2m 0 m 20 m 20 r20 w M S90 ..-..... -...... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... . . .,... .... ...,... .. , ,,,,.. .*,... .... .... .... .... .... I"1 llt fbr oatt§ 13.42 I4.3Y U.9? 't .53 tr.n3 MIND 19.17 1A.gJ 19.51 WAS0 19.29 18.91 1s.23 Wts 20.48 20A 21.35 V-3 ZS41 26.U m Dqepreain 0.9? I.Sy 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 L.OO 2.00 2.00 2.00 t.16 1.os t.0 1.03 t.os 0.43 0.00 0.00 .00 393 L_s 0.00 .1 0.00 0.00 Lo .oe, 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.oo *.oo 0.00 o.oo 0.00 L.OO 0.0 00 oo .00 o.eo 391 pity o.oo 6.S1 4.61 0.53 1.53 7.8 1.17 1.87 1.51 1.00 1.29 1.96 1.90 1902 Lo.o 20.43 2.3D 0.00 0.00 2.e2 S3 sAANCING t t 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0 .00 0 .00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3 6 ..................... ............................................. ................... . _.._................ 39 Totat Surs 14.3 22.49 21.5r7 LsS3 19.53 19.69 21.1? 20.07 21.51 214S 21.29 20.15 20.26 20.85 21.52 21.45- 21.78 223s 23A1 24.92 396 39 APPliCATISE OF RUSS _& 400 - 401 nrob In Wwking Cpital 14.35 1.90 3.20 S.31 5.s5 5.58 S.3 5.77 s.90 5.93 5.86 4.96 4.68 S.00 5.13 5.1 4.7 4.47 4.2 4.98 402 Capitat ItstnmntslCnsttuct 0.00 9.10 6.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 40 Principal Repayment - ytO.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 404 Intest R_pwent (pet of opastnQ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .0.00 0.00 0.00 405 DIdtldamnt - ON tres 0.00 2.87 2.t9 331 3.51 3.58 3.83 3.77 3.90 3.95 3.e6 3.80 3.65 3.96 4.10 4.00 4.27 4.47 4.72 4.98 4063 lvIded Pslm - foreipn Pa 0.00 8.62 8.9" 9.92 10.52 10.74 t1.50 11.32 11.70 11.79 11.58 11.39 11.54 11.89 12.29 12.25 2.86 1A.4I 14.16 14.ff 407 Olvldml Pqsutyt - Local Pwt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 409 Total Apleateis 14.36 22.49 21.57 18.53 19.53 9.3 21.17 20.67 21.51 21.65 21.29 20.15 20.26 20.5 21.52 21.45 21.78 22.35 23.61 24.92 410 411 * ~~~ ~_ a t avow 116 nu a lw I an_ *Amu, _IUI *WA S :e, nSX mft I OWOICAI 12:1 956P FIlE* 11S NO 3t1A 511 0A53. VWm0 £ I.1551 3 FIUkUI1 WM PtI AL AN"S * CM I - INIESM At =ML 415 4? .._........................... 41 O 9tt t 4*t PtV -**gf 0.0 C**.. 0... .. 0. ---- 0.3- -- 0- . *--- ---- *---- ---0 -06 ---- -- 0.10-- -0 ---0.10 4n ................--...... 4t9 pv.LW 0.0 0.1 0.60 0.60 6.O 0.L0 0.0O 0.10 0.06 0.00 0.6 0.L0 0.10 0.LO L0 0.0 0.6O 0.60 0.10 420 6.10 0.01 0.00 0.07 0.e 0.16 0.48 6.OD 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.60 0.00 0.0 0. 0.60 0. 0.80 6.60 0.0 *0 42 ~, Una D." OJ 0.85$I 0.4 LS91 L0. 0= 0.2S 0.13*.1 0.00LO 0.01O.0 LOD0 0.00 0.00 0.01t LO.11 LOD L0. 422 W , 51198 0.10 0.21 033 0.45 0.2 0.72 08 1.R 1.18 1.0 1.9 1.4 1.47 1.52 1.5* 1.6 1 4 1.71 1.7 1.31 41 K 1 LAJIUO 0.6 6 60 0.92 0. ." 0.1. 1.00 1.0 1O 1.12 1.1 1. 1.2 1.29 1.33 1ie 1.4 1.4? 15.5 1..5 41 OM8J10 0I6E 0.60 0.OD 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.06 0.60 01 0.60 0.0 0.60 *.0 0.10 0.10 .O6 0.00 OAO 0.0 0O.0 0.00 415 11s5 81_ 0.0 0.60 0.60 0.60 6.60 0.10 6.10 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.60 0.10 0.60 L1. 0.10 O0.1 LOD OA0 0.0 0.00 42 WAVY E OIL 0.80 0.00 0.0 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.0 0.00 0.1 0.10 0.0 0.00 0.60 01 0.60 06 01 0 0.00 0.0D 47 £w 1 0.60 0.10 0.0 0J0 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.60 0.10 0.60 .00 0.10 0.00 0.60 0o0 0.10 0.60 0.60 0.O 4 .................................................................................... .............................. ....... ........ ..... .................................................* 42 0.0 1.7 1.93 1.9 2.0 2.12 2.18 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.47 2.5 2. 2.72 2.80 2.6 2."5 LS . 3.29 &430 431 432 3a . 433 ------*-----*--- 434 PPAIE 0OO O.O 0.00 L O LO.00 * 0.0 .110 L.OO 0.O0 0O. 0.00 0.O0 0.80 0.1O 0.0 0.0 . 0.00OO 0.80 L.a 415 1ANE 0.00 0.10 0.0 0.00 0.10 0.OO 0.00 0.00 O .OO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0O.D LO 0 .00 0 0. 0.60 0.00 0.00 436 OM, LUs 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0OD 00 0.00 0.00 6.10 0.00 0.0O 0.00 .OO 6.00 6.06 . O.1 0.60 0.00 0.60 43 NOMS, 5 5 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.0 0.0 0.OO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 O. 0.00 0.O0 OM 0.10 6O0 0.00 0.00 6.80 43 ESWIIuLO 0.10 6.80 0.00 0.1 0.0L 0.10 0.00 0.0 00 6.o10 o61 6.00 0.10 0 00 0.60 0.00 0OD o.0 0.00 0.60 439 OM06I L 0.0 0.10 0.00 060 0.0 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.10 310 0.60 0..0 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 06.0 0.10 0.60 440 palm5 Ol_L 0.60 6.8O 0.60 0.60 0.10 0.0 O1 LO 0.00 6.60 O.0 0O.D 0.10 0.10 0.60 0.10 0.80 0. 0.10 0.6 441 1W1A U OIL 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.80 0.00 6. 1 O.O 0 0.OO 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.Q 0 o.10 0.10 0.60 442 *a190T 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 OO. 0.00 .OO 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.0 0.00 0.10 0..OO 0.60 4 ................................................ ............................................................ ............. .... ........ , . ..,_ 444 0.1 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.8O 0 0.00 6D.8 0.00 0.00 0.600 0.0 0.60 0.00 0.80 0.10 00 0 0.60 4S I ON/09t t2:09 PM FILE a *FtUf 1.3.1. GM2 UMS FE' $WUAD PRICE M POIE 2 JWCAit 1sow1 EtE 1138 m IYsIm Lmin SM 3 PTLM $KM FIWICAL _tIS - VA I * USIU ASS NM 446 456 PSIVtE/1tWRlEElS U3WMIEB ---- ---- * - *.. 451 --- ------ 452 SIIPiE 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.OD 0.00 0. 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 453 HWAI 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.O0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 454 0, L_ 29.25 22.4 17.5" 16.3 14.71 1273 10.4 7.48 4.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 455 NM, IU;EA 3.25 5.61 7.67 10.92 4.71 9.09 24.3 29." 36.53 43.93 4.76 45.40 46.5 41.t 48.59 50.44 5S2 54.1 56.9 SO 456 UaluO 28.35 24.01 23.03 24.61 26.54 28.73 3n.14 33.75 36.0 3944 40.S8 41.54 42.9 43.87 4.91 "6.51 4840 505 52.80 55.05 457 0am 31g1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Lic 0.1 0.00 0.O0 0.0 0.0 0.00 040 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 45 "8t13E DIlEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0oo 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.L0 0.00 0.3 0.00 45 WA4 FUL OIL 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0L0 0.00 0.00 0. 0.0 440 ASPhALt 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o oo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 461 ........................................... ............................................................... -.................... ......,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,P **o*@v- v*ww*-***o 442 16.81 52.93 48.61 SI.92 S5.97 0.55 65.61 71.1 77.21 83.58 85.35 87S 89.34 915 93.50 9 100.75 104.I 9 108.99 1I1. ~463 4". 4 "UWPt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.o0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4J8 SWA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .0O 69 $WS4, LEADD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .0O 470 NMS, WU£M0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 471 nEfWTifl 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 472 AUTO sumo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.c0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00. 0.00 0.00 473 ARINE DIE5EL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.60 474 3EA3Y FUEL OIL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 475 ASPNALT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 478 ............................................................................................................ ....................... ................... 477 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 479 TOTAL _ .EtiOM* IMPOlT cos 40.86 52.93 48.6t 51.92 55.97 60.55 45.61 71.13 77.21 8.58 85.35 87.15 89.34 91.53 95097.25 10.S 104.79 108.99 1. 4- 48t . |~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1 OBU104 MMsOS FI'E film *11" .3.t, gm N IW$. _mo DEM m , m a 46 _ 4K OIV L rIlM AILt#$ 4SS ----------------------- 4 "M IM t 9 19" "9 1"Y 199 UM 2 022t 042 062 0Sn U 4W IRNUE-- -S----- *-- .... ..--.. .... .... .... _.... .... .. .. ..__.. _._____. _.. .... ..... ._ .... .... .... . .. .._... .... ..... .... 4m ..._._...,. 689 PIIAIE 0.410 0.410 0.00 0.00 0.e01 O.QO O.QO 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 000 CAD00 .QO 0.00 0.00 4"O URAIUE 0.00 O.QO O.Olt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.eo 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.QO o.eo 3.00 0.40 o6 0.00 0.4 0.QO 0.0 491 N_S, LVB3.0W 23.19 to.so 16.6 1S.22 13.S 0.6r r.70 4.17 0.00 0.00 O.QO O.QO O.QO 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.QO 0.00 0.00 492 to, 1^6_ 3.3 S.100 7.sr' 11.32 U.Sr.n Wn 2.0 30Jo 3r.R S.1 GJ ." 46A 47.n 9.o 49.Nffq SlA SSA SSA MA.r WAZ 4931KRM 29.37 25.93 24.11 2s.n3 t.70 2.92 32.3 3.02 .94 4U.01 4t." 3.00 U.19 6.0 ".5 41ST U J S3 2 ." S4, S6. 494 AUTO DIESELt 0.00 0.00 o.oo 0.00 0,.00 D.OO 0.00 QOO0 0.00 0.00 O.OD. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.QO OJO 49S IIIUIE btESEL 0.00 O.QD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.OD o.oo 0JC0 0. 0 0.00 0.00 O.QO 0.00 0.00 O.QO 0.00 0.00 O.QO0 OA0 49 ff WEV RfUE OIL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.QO 0.QO 0.00 O.OD 0.00 O.GO o.oo 0.00 O0 QO .QO 0.00 O.QO a*Qo OAO0 o.oo 497 ASPHIlT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.QO O.OD O.QO O.CD O.GO 0.00 z> 499 d2.7 nM. SO."6S54.03 X4t.t5 62 aD 6r.93 n .S2 W9.^ a6.13 S?.ff 69.7 9P2.14 95.48 niSO 1Q0034 1O.93 103.gSt 1122S9 116fMt SO tOST 4it Sol-*- 502 t"Fototlon 60JB6 S2.93 48.61 S1.92 55.9r 60.55 6SAt n .13 nr.2t 03.5a 05.35 WSrt s.34* 9t2RB 93.50 9r.25 taOL75 t05.79 tQ8.W 11t.sr SON 1emnntnttrin aJBa 0.6t 1.25 1.29 1.33 1.31t.42 I.46 131 .S 1.S t61 I.66 1.n1 t.t tJa 1.E 1.94 2.00 2.Qr 2;13 2.2 tzX sot .....................................................___.__.... ....................... . __ _. .... .... SOS 62.11 MMJ2 49.94 S3tO Ur23 62.0t 67.U 2. w A9n.o2 aSZsM A 8r.6 E91 91.16 93." 4 f.44 M 2 102.8t t 692 tII." IIS.6S SOS ......;............................................................................... .....- . _-.._....... . ____.._........ SO? _ I"Ut PWTfl EtOR tAX 0.6r 0.69 0.71 OJw4 0.76 0.79 0.8t 0.84 0.8r 0.8s 0.92 0,9S O.99 '.02 1.05 1.0s 1.12 t.t 1.20 1.24 soB S09 IwO a TAX 33.33X 0.22 0.23 0.24 02S 0.25 0.26 OM2 0.24 0.29 0.30 0.31 OmS 0.3 a.34 O2SS 0236 GM3 O29 0.40 0.41 5tt NMARN"L "Wit AftE It 0.45 O."6 0.48 0.49 0.51 0.52 O.S4 0.56 O.5& 0060 0.62 C."$ 0.66 0.68 0.70 0.n2 0.7S 0.77 0.80 OmB St3 PR5tT 57ATtR[AIW S0.OOX 0.2Z 0.23 0.24 0.25 U 0.25 .6 O.Z7 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.3t 0.32 0.33 4.34 0.35 0.3 S A 02g. O2 0.4D 0.41 S14 SIS CET PO|ESEM VAUIE Of WMUROZL PEefIT 12.00% 4.tO 516 ire orWe & r wo We r e u e or. o Ie wo We Se we we a ire S,U * - W54'iSS PqnAIO 1f W% 9191" it* Wu wet1 Wu6121t au 4711 W11 lii Wit 11Wili WU.1 moot 1511 266 WI* NVl WO* I* - SSS301J3U* pNpl14 Off s ne e onr owr Nre we we we so we woe oe we wre soe wo o .w are aore 1 _oS,s.iS I 1013 OK oo are ae oro w oe weo we o We woe oeo wre wre woe oeoreo woe owe wor.W n spj gAm amfe m urnS diOR doo 97o0 SrAS 053hi O il6WMSA WiSiA WM 4rJA irU iWM Woef W6f Wi$SM 173 25 WOP9 d MOW. 0.5UfS3 S485UJS Os r-i in en sr sri esrif sri on- SC ia sr i £19 o0 w: 09a wz ira ,z lS: fni e .sdu bg WJ lK sri srt srt w* sri srt swi rt sri sri srt sri wr ai sri a,i sri si sri Sr1 315 u'fu amsom tusS Ps OM ea win Wu we W ri isi irm "Inf to a's 6rii Swe a- 9n sriW9a a," Ge, Ulu snUozpd 3SwJ Wfopud t90 Z6W A1.43 UWi Wigi 3116 WtLitZ Sf01 56)0 05r03 470f 5911 i-, Onl 5Wa W6461 SM oWm 7011 noon W~on OSS4 i. gvsSp*d 0.1.110 in PAUM 3MJ* 20" -0000v OK tsWl~if ul oot eWA wo zw am arsi Wa u r 9Z wir Wu 63 sW isu azi ml i, r ff1 i9v t wzes Ji ,, .......... .e......... - ------- ..- -- , -- --- ---------------------........ KS 9 soe oWs oe ore or. o w weore oo o osl or. ole oro eo oWI ore we oeo o soeo moo o3ob3 . go" * woe woe we reoeoeoe reoe r. rerorere owow oor ow ooo e oro woe woe iw ss9 ore mf.as.d or, I0u-iW £A* ,g ........-----.----- S *£1" wi or9 WI5 9601 51 6611t Wu5 era 071 grit irs we Wue ira wZI WuS wi ore ore ire imie )*dq =I..wo KS 0*000* its .-. .. .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ..... , osig -w an JOE "a an " an 10 on 00z 1 3061 a1 9661 56 76 566 661 "a 6" 92t S WS ...........................--.-.^---....--.....---..----. ofK IWIh AD dO to 201 aLM S WuAV 5316 11 1an 5. U gas m_nw Jo xas TR I U" A _U * I no - SISAU1 W A 3an _u11 s AMU WMZUW IISIIII OW 1_11 MM MMN Qf1tW I alum MIL ' 11I sum W11_11mu 11*rr aEi e w Om a su e i am *~~~~ a I 00101191 t2:O 11 FILE F FEF 13.1. MU 1 3*8, mUliED 0065 & NRICE. l 901 2 JAIWC I IEO ECTO 8131 AN IIVISTUUT PU InURN 13 3 fflElTO SICUM tiUIAL *33.S1 - anM I - IIUSIS as UAWL S54 ----------- 555 P.troJl tCa$t. Gt 0.00 6.55 4.61 0.00 0.O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.O0 0.60 00 0.00 0.00 0.OO 0.00 556 PeifcIpt Sepamwt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S.6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.05 0.00 0.0 0.0o. SS$ TOTAL 297.26 2S.09 227.39 249.23 2.89 2.25 316.02 323.41 349.18 3W9.7 34. 360.01 370.U2 253 373M.390.51 39. 24105 44.06 439.17 SS 560 561 SEt MEIN EXlUICUAUE ftl -258 -239 -243 -242 -253 -270 -291 -29 -320 -330 -360 -336 -34 -W -305 -30 -3 420 .43 562 S54 PRSIt WAS o0 MET 9FI0II 130l15 CMII 12.003 .23 S65 546 DuscuT 3O*3 of JMICA TOTAL Sam 90.93 53 .68 f 35. 56m :- I #iflwI" lEK UN flu * fIn= 1.3t1 UsU U,m mu= £ 1 F5, fI NIU aWAC%2 _Z _ Rm UqA A S-M allt FL_w _1 _t S jMica OKns FUWAiu eWAS? - MinUInu- PSIU AS OM 31101U1 iU mst_s -cl I _013s SEM so on= w M ............ . .. . 2 ....... SM "n IM 905 t9 IM Mw s09T t91 "P 20ot 2 2O 2WS 200s OO 200 200 amo2 M sn .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .. . .... . m"-------- 578 Port uty 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.W 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 L.S 00 0. 0.00 0.00 LO0 0.00 579 Iumm eI . PteJm S.91 5.11 5.47 7.03 7.65 T.95 86 4AS 9.02 9.1? 946 8.6 9.1 9.8 9.5 9.00 10.36 1039 11. 112 .23 5U Smm Voa - fIIetS Can= 0.22 0.23 0.21 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.2 0.20 0.29 0.30 0.31 '0.32 0.33 0 OM 0L36 0 0.39 0.40 0.41 61 SlvidPi,-a frm fteroim qwa 0.00 2.87 2.99 3.31 3.51 3.36 38 3.77 3.90 3.93 3.81 3.30 34 396 4.10 4.04 4.2 4.4 4.72 4.08 sa2 ........................................................................................... .......................,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.. so 1T1* 6.14 8.21 8.70 10.58 11.41 11.79 12.7 U1 3.21 13.40 1.22 13.07 13.31 13.78 14JO U. 1S.01 1S.5 164 17.6 SM - - W6 ldtv trmnetmM 0.W 0.00 0.3 0.oo 0." 0.0. 0.o3 0.00 00 00 0.000 . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.L 0.0 so ~~~~~~~~~~~..................................... ......................................... ................ 59 WAL 0.00 0. 0.3 0.3 0.30 0.00 0.L 0.00 0.00 0.03 .0. 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S" 5911 92 on a t 6.14. 8.21 .7 10.58 11.41 11.79 12.7 12.68 13M 13.40 13.22 13r 13.31 13.78 14.3 14-.0 15.01 13.15 164A 7.3 "4 l II PEII %U= S 12.085.35 509 s7 I 08049 Ift04 m FIL flo ur 13.1* EEa WflIU*h..1U W11, i" & 1CE, Is ImIm 2 JAiCA hCI SECTOR ITa ANm I1EIE PIMIIIES MM S FTSM UCT FIUINIAL mAuLYSIS - CASE I - MWSUESS USfAL SW9 OFMOE MUM WTI 15.015 SIEASIP 6@1 - em UIIA* FLOW 191 2 93 1994 1S 196 1y 193 1999 2am0 21am n 200m 2 am MY am am 20 4 .........- WILT iW 0.00 6.5? 6.39 6.30 S.9? S.44 5.20 4.5? 4. 2 3.80 3.33 2.92 24 2.43 2.25 2.00 18 1.74 144 1.5 6S *9t3 dnd 9t3otion 0.00 8.62 8.96 9.92 10.52 10.74 11.50 11.32 11.70 11.79 11.56 11.39 11.S4 11.0 12.2 12.251 2J6 13.41 14.16 14.9 Xos 0.00 *.62 S."9 .92 WU .S 0.74 ll.S0 tt.32 1t.7D tt.79 ll.S8 II." tl.S4 11.10 12.29 12;2S t2l tS.41 114.% u.n o09 CU"UL W oo *. 6.6 13.26 19.5, 25.54 30.97 36.18 4G.15 44.97 4s.77 52.10 55.02 ST.66 40.10 62.34 64.34 6.21 7.95 49.59 71.14 610 4pIIeottem PAT1NCE PT 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 611t ........ C.L YP 0.00 S.Z2 $.so 6.S0 612 EipIty iw_ tmnt 8.S0 0.00 6.SS 4.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 613 131.9 0.00 S .22 3.28 0.00 0.............................................................. -. ... .--. . ,,,._ 61 AV 31 g m OT 1Ct992.9 615 i caM FUN 0.00 2.0? 4.3? 9.92 10.52 10.74 11.SO 11.32 .11.70 11.9 I15M 1.39 11.54 11.8 1229 12.2S 1281 1.41 1.6 U14.5 t 616 , 61? '616 PREEN Van.I OP UT CAS FLOI 8 12.028 62.44 619 PAPItE O tiS fPIII M O0.4 u2s I 014A 01t 96 93. * PlM 2.0.3 ga ul _i.s suHE unmua UER S 9,IN3 MII PIUSCA MUISIS C- GMt - CA?t COMKI 4 X a s - " s zz* S 9019 9219 99 9519 9719 199 200 201 202 200 04 20520 0720 US 200 6 .... ..... .... ..... .... ..... .... ..... .... ..... .... ...... ........,..... ....... ................. - --, 7 Mt MNPCmlm u MU.w - i lin of hwrnia Is ...C................ 11 "t 12 PuPlO 0.1 0.11 0t 012 0.13 0.13 0.14 O.15 0.U5 0.16 0.17 1 0.1 .2 0.21 0.22 03 0.2 0X 0 SIOA 0.42 0."4 .4" 0.48 0.51 0.53 0. D." 0.2 04S 048 0.11 0.15 0.19 La 0.3 0." 0.96 10 1.05 14 IIOW, 13II 0." 0.35 0.77 048 0.58 0.48 0.3? 0.25 0.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0O. 0.0 o00 0o.o 1S nowS, UIIEUm 0.10 0.21 0.33 0.45 0.58 0.72 0.58 1.02 1.18 1J.5 1.9 1.43 1.47 1.52 1.56 1.61 1" 1.71 1.76 1.61 l6 U1fInUo 0.61 0.60 0. 0.92 0.95 0.92 1.42 1.5 1.0 1.12 1.16 LIS 1.24 1.29 1.5 138 t.42 M.Y 13 1.53 17 ATO OI1 1.35 1.51 S 1.65 2.4 1.69 1.68 1.71 1 42 1.69 1.70 1.8l 1.9 2.0S 2.11 2.15 231 2.4 2.54 2.60 LI? 1S MI IE QSEL 0.JS 0.36 0.38 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.4 0.45 0.4 0.4T 0.46 0. 0.51 0.52 053 0.S4 0.5 0.57 0.59 04O 19 MAV 11 OIL 4.SS 4.1n 4.85 4.56 5.10 5.13 5.32 4.7 442 4.00 4.11 3.46 3.sr 3.73 3.90 3.27 3Si 3.54 374 3.91 20 APULT 0.11 0.12 O.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0L25 0.26 020 0.29 0.31 0.33 21 .-.-... -..... .. . .................. -..- 22 6.15 9.13 9.S8 9.90 10.10 1L.4 10.5 160. 1 9.3 10.00 9.42 10.01 102.3 to.76 10.4" 1O0.3 11.33 11,78 12.23 23 OINUS 24 -------.- 25 lOPu OA.D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.o 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26 uWAan 0. 00 0.00 0.00 0.a .0 0o 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 00 0.00 0.0 0.0 2V NaOtS O.B 0.00 0.00 0.00 246 2.61 2.58 2.45 2.36 2.32 2.20 2.34 2.26 2.20 1.72 2.r 2.02 2.02 1.9 1.94 28 UEmI 0ID. 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.61 0.37 0.34 0.36 0.2 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.17 0.1 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 29 AUO DIESEM OA.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 O.14 0.47 o.s5 o.sr 0.49 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.c0 0.00 0.00 30 MUISE 01ESE 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 . o.oo 0.00 31 117 FUEtM OI. 0.00 040 0.00 0.00 0.00 .oo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.4 0.20 1.03 0.86 0.63 0.93 0.94 0L. 0.SO 0.40 0.00 3 2 . ..................................................... . ...................................................................... . .... . .... . .,,,,,,_,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,__ 33 1.28 0.00 0.00 040 $.2? 3.16 3.0 3.29 3.26 3.6 3.22 3.61 3.27 2.6 2.65 3.05 2.56 2.52 2.33 1.96 I 0014/91 1:43PR FILE a FInr 2.0.3 MM WMUS, MMOr 1ADW3CE. 02 _10f 2 JANRICA Ons SCT IasA liNVESNT PLUUIU nOY * rIsuAmI 1iCM. "Micia. UALTSES - CA It -CA CRA NS n JmIcas 3auitVALlus kb*ntry 36 PNtupu HI "a OF El101 A3 38 Swim (Room, LUs" 39 brVTwbo 4030 (A* h1ee) 41 erlu beel 42 Fet oWl 43 ......................-o. .- ................................................ . ............... . . . . ._..... 44 000 0.00 Q°° 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4s ---.-.-----...... .................... ............. ......... ..... .. ................................... . .... . ........ ..). _ 46 ToTAL O801W 10.03 9.18 9.58 10.19 13.37 13.40 13.63 13.31 1.3s 13.25 13.22 U1.23 13.28 13.M 1.41 13.51 13.7s 13.84 14.11 14.17 4r 48 49 1990 191 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 19 98 199 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20 2B 2008 29 200 so 50.... . .... . .... . .... . .... . .... . .... . .... . .... . .... . .... . ... _._... .... . .... ... .... ... .... ... .... S2 .v......... S3 PROPM" O.OS 0.09 *.09 0.08 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 O.OB O.OS 0.04 0.05 0.06 o.or 0.11 0.09 O.t o.n1 0.12 O.t3 54 BUIAS O.1S 0.30 0.32 0.26 0.31 0.3t 0.35 0.41 O.46 0.49 0.52 0.52 O.St 0.61 0.5a 0.n1 o.7s 0.80 0.8s O.9t Ss IO=^ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 *.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5& imolE3un" O.OD 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.OD O.OD 0.40 0.00 L4OO 0.02 0.06 4.13 0.15 sT AUTO olrloE o.oo o.oo o.oo *.ao o.oo 0.00 o.oo 0.00 o.oo o.oo o.oo o.oo o.ao O.GO o.oo o.oo o.oo o.oo 0.01 0.23 Ss minlB Digs"L 0.00 0.00 *.00 0.00 0.00 O.C0 0.00 0.00 o.ao o.oo 0.00 o.oo 0.00 0.00 o.os .o 0. 21 O 0.2t 0.34 0.10 SWAVY flUE OIL t.0? 2.S56 2.57 O.64 0.3B 0.39 o.sr O.t8 O.t8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.C0 o.eo 60 ............................................. ........................................................................................... .................... ............................................._____,.. ....,_ 61 1.26 Z."S 2.98 O.ff 0.0 0.n2 0.94 0.61 0J66 0.52 0.S6 o.sr 0.63 0.68 . .6 0t.0*4 108 lt. U .4 1.5t 6t5 1 0"109 61tt" 1 FWL * Flt 2.0.3 nu11 was, tu1 m 0mwmIcE 1a 5103 2 Umwca mmf wECt.I slR I U s Aniu lw_t PUIuuus SlUt S PIOLS 13K1 FVIUCIl UALTIIS - CASE It - CAT CAUI B a1mU O aillw of barrlts 65 ..... 6S G1 .82 0.00 0.00 6.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 a 0217 0.00 25S 2.74 0.00 5.08 5.30 5.3 4.6 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.96 4.6 4.56 6.5 4.16 4.116 3.8 4.16 345 68 ISftUU5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.56 6.72 6.72 7.96 0.76 8.76 8.76 7.43 7S 8.S 4.06 8.76 8.76 9.0 8.&6 9.2 O9 NAVA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0o.o 0.00 0.00 70 ro0tAOOS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.OD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Ts OlhgTE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 .................................. ................................................................-.. ... . 73 MTTAL h l CN3N 5.82 2."9 2.74 6.37 11.89 2.11 12.11 12.60 12.91 12.91 12.91 12.39 12.57 1245 10.9 1.91 12.2 1L" IL" 12.92 74 75 76 V91t5 3W * mittions of brrets 78 UUTFAE 0.09 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.0 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.09 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 79 UAPftA 2.01 1.46 1.50 0.79 1.00 0.78 0.78 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.34 0.25 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 > 60 If30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - 81 1AS OIL 1.24 2.36 2.54 2.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 83 TOUAL sIOEs 3.37 3.58 4.11 .19 1.05 0.81 0.81 0.35 0.04 0.01 0.04 O.S6 O.3 0.30 2.01 0.08 0.01 0.0 0.0" 0.04 84 86 I Sam/91 o01:4 il" e P I faUilF 2.0.3 m mtl, Room uwmt , a tg.. 1 . JMCA 3Me 11MM siMa s INESINE PANIi £1 3 PET EIU PIUUIA AnAIS * CASE It - CAT ACICI ° 199I 11 1902 1993 19 19 1906 1997 1 19 O 2NO 20 200 200 4 2005 2006 2007 2008 P 2n1 89 . -.... .... .... ..... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... go cmE * PUae pRiCEs - WS^8K 91 _ 92 93 I32I1 PtNICT PRICES (CA) 94 .---------------- 95 P10PAN 20.41 17.94 U.54 17.12 17.83 1862 19.47 20.22 21.03 21.8t 2t.6 21.48 21.3 21.25 21.48 21.29 2126 216 21.51 21.63 96UU1IITI 25.02 21.94 20.19 20.9 21.76 22.3 23.73 24.72 .72 20.72 26.50 26.28 26.14 26.00 n5.7 25.93 26.00 2.16 26.3 26.47 97 mS 32.94 27.8 24.92 2561 20.98 23.29 29.71 31.19 32.78 34.36 34.01 33." 33.44 3.21 32.86 33.11 M.12 33.47 33.71 33.96 96 KFAWTURSO 33.66 6.7 a2.6 2A.4 27.6s 29.1? 30.60 32.08 33.6 35.27 34.92 34.56 34.34 34.12 33.76 34.31 34.U 34.3 54.62 34.8 J ODIESEI 31.32 26.50 23.6 24.51 25.62 26.6r 26.22 29.63 1.1S 324S 32.32 31.99 31.78 31.S6 31.23 31.46 S315 31. 32.04 32.28 tO URIIIE DIESE 30.30 2.53 22.89 23.71 24.79 26.00 7.30 28.67 30.1 31.5 31.2r 30.94 30.74 30.53 30.21 30.44 30.54 30.7 31.00 31.22 101 EAVW FUEL OIt 16.53 14.02 12.56 1.01 13.59 14.25 4.96 15.6 6.48 17.26 1t7.0 16.92 16.1t 16.70 16.52 6.65 16.70 16J2 16.95 17.07 102 106 MT PROt PRICES; 3AWITEIALMINA PINC PRICES t0o .......................................... 106 9193 11.61 3.36 7.21 7.so 7.92 8.42 8.96 9.72 10.53 11.33 1.S to.97 10.86 10.75 1O.S5 10.69 10.75 10.88 11.00 11.13 107 UTAUE 14.82 11.43 9.37 9.74 10.28 1O.91 11.40 12.4 13.54 14.54 14.32 14.10 13.96 13.82 1.60 13.75 13.12 3.96 14.14 14.29 105 EDGAS 30.66 25.56 2M.52 23.35 24.44 25.68 27.02 28.S0 30.09 31.66 31.31 30.96 30.74 30.52 30.1r 30.41 30.53 30.7n 31.02 31.2? 109 RnOtluuo 30.94 25.79 22.73 23.56 24.66 25.91 27.20 28.7S 30.35 31.94 31.58 31.23 31.01 30.79 30.43 30.6 30.80 31.04 31.29 31.54 110 AM0 IESEL 29.33 24.4S 21.5S 22.34 23.36 24.57 25.85 27.26 28.78 30.28 29.95 29.61 29.40 29.19 28.86 29.09 29.20 29.43 29.67 z2.9 m1 U^RINE IESE L 28.3S 23.63 28.83 zI. 22.60 2M.I5 24.99 26.35 27.32 29.27 28.95 28.62 28.42 23.22 2.89 28.12 23.22 28.4s 28468 28.9 112 t 4W FufL OIL I 15.13 12.59 11.08 1.49 12.02 12.4 n.30 14.03 14.82 15.60 1s.43 15.26 15.1 1S.04 14.66 14.98 15.04 1S.16 1s.29 1S.41 113 u1AW MUEL OIL 2 1s.06 3.S5 12.06 12.50 13.07 13.71 14.41 1S.14 15.93 16.7 u.s4 16.36 16.2S 16.14 S.97 16.09 16.15 16.2V 16.39 16.52 114 116 I~ ONP PhJtiTY FO N_ 118 GS LamE 31.43 26.34 23.32 24.17 25.28 26.55 2.92 29.39 30.96 32.56 32.21 31.86 31.64 31.42 31.07 31.31 31.43 31.4 31.92 32.17 119 S05 UDE0 31.43 26.34 n3.32 24.17 25.28 26.53 27.92 29.39 30.96 32.56 32.21 31.86 3144 31.42 31.0r 31.31 31.43 31.6? 31.92 3Z.1r U2 lIP mIT F LtAIAL. 26.18 23.43 21.81 22.31 22.95 23.6? 24.4 25.26 26.13 26.i9 26.80 26.61 26.49 26.3? 26.18 26.31 26.37 26.51 26.64 26.75 t2.2........... I 04MM 01:43S F I fILE * Fl33F 2.0.3 BASE NAtI,# EMICS DIAWUPICE, OX fC0El1U 2 JOAtICA ENERGV SECtO STUATESMD SINESTMENT PUIIWINS STIT 3 PETOOLEIM SUEMT FVNANJCIM AMLTIS - CM II - CAT CRACKWIN 124 t991 1992 1995 1994 1995 1991 1997 1998 1999 2am0 20014 2 200 25 20 200 2a0 2009 20O 125 ShRT CAEN PRICE EIEflE .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 126 ................... "Mill 127 PROPADE 2.37 22.78 20.32 189.2 19.49 20.20 20.99 21.84 22.60 3.41 24.21 24.03 23.05 23.74 23.63 23.45 25.s5 23J3 23.76 234S 24.01 18 SUTAE 2.37 27.39 24.31 22.56 23.26 24.13 25.11 26.15 2r.09 28.10 29.09 26.87 28.65 28.51 28.37 28S 28.30 28.38 28.53 2849 2.84 129 MM, EED 0.88 32.31 27.21 24.20 25.05 26.16 27.43 28.80 30.27 31.86 33.4 33.09 32.74 32.52 32.30 31.95 32.19 32.31 5ss 32.80 33.04 130 u, mne 0.88 32.32 27.22 24.20 25.05 26.17 27.43 28.80 30.28 31.87 33."4 33.09 32.74 32.52 32.30 31.95 32.19 32.31 32.55 32.80 33.65 13 1 1501115D 1.21 35.07 29.99 26.9 2r.89 29.06 30.38 31.81 33.29 34.89 38.48 36.13 35.77 35.55 35.3 34.98 35.22 3S.34 35.59 35.3 36.08 132 A10D IESEL 1.17 32.49 2V.67 24.83 25.48 26.79 28.04 29.39 30.80 32.32 33.82 33.49 33.16 32.94 32.73 32.40 32.3 3L. 32.98 33.21 33.45 133 MVE DIESEL 1.s9 31.89 27.22 24.48 25.30 26.38 27.59 28.89 30.26 31.72 33.18 32.86 32.53 3233 32.12 31.80 32.3 32.1 32.36 32.59 3281 134 HEAVY FEtl OIL 1.S6 18.08 15t.3 14.11 14.S 1S.1S 1S.8 16.52 17.25 18.04 18.82 18.6 18.48 18.37 1.28 18.68 18420 1. 183 131.50 18.6 135 ASPAT 0.77 286.9 24.20 22.59 23.00 23.72 24.45 25.23 26.04 26.st 2.rr 27.s5 V7.38 27.26 27.14 2M.95 2r.08 27.1S 27.28 2.42 2r.55 U6 137 CRUME 130 ......,._ 139 c124 20.28 17.20 1S.24 15.71 16.31 1.s 18.04 18.95 19.91 25.86 20.72 20.9 20.52 2.45 20.31 20.38 20.38 20.45 20.52 20.59 148 MIT 17.50 U.77 13.16 13.63 14.25 U1. 15.71 16.51 17.36 18.21 18.03 17.84 17.72 17. 1A71 17.S4 17.60 1T.74 17. 18.00 t 141 In5O6 23.43 19.08 17.60 18.0 18.72 19.67 20.67 21.70 22.78 23.91 23.84 23.77 23.70 2.63 23.56 23.56 233.6 23.56 23.56 23.S6 142 MAA 19.64 16.66 u.81 15.29 1S.90 16.70 17.S6 t1.4 19.3? 20.29 20.14 9.98 19.90 19.82 194t 19.1S 19.77 19.86 19.95 20.04 143 foRaCADos 25.4 21.70 19.33 19.89 20.59 21.62 22.72 23.80 24.95 28.1S 26.06 28.00 25.93 25as 25.78 25.78 25.78 25.78 25.78 25.78 14 CRIE1n 22.81 19.17 16.88 17.41 18.06 19.0o 20.12 21.17 22.28 23.44 23.37 23.30 23.22 23.15 23.08 23.6 23.08 2.08 23.08 23.08 14S 146 SPIKES 147 ------ Us utnAu 20.72 17,49 1s.58 16.11 16.82 17.62 18.49 19.43 20.43 2.43 21.21 20.99 20.8 20.71 20. 6 ZDA4 20.71 20.87 21.03 21.18 149 TIM 26.40 22.12 19.58 20.30 21.23 22.30 23.4S 24.69 26.02 27.34 27.05 26.76 28.S 26.39 26.09 2.30 2689 26.60 28.01 27.01 SO KClO 32.63 2.50 24.47 25.32 26.44 2.72 29.09 30.58 32.18 33.n7 3S.4t 33.06 32.84 3242 32.26 32S. 32.3 3287 33.12 33.j 151 6S OIL 29.00 24.13 21.25 22.06 23.13 24.33 2.64 27.05 28.s5 30.07 29.74 29.40 29.19 23.98 285 28s. 28.99 29.23 29.46 29.70 PEUWM I filM/Se 0O143 U* FILE 2.0.3 3u 361. RMUU 0W16p11w, 0x maim 2 JAAC 115 SEClTR 6t7tliBI1 -I IUWSTMEUT P1*1131M 31 S 31301* $CO fUaItAL 8l.1S - OmI II - CaT awus S4 1SS 156 1990 191 1992 1993 1 1995 1996 I99 1 9 2M 2n 0 a 0 nu a 0 am a 0 m 0 m6 am a 010 IS? ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 159 161 OOMSFIC RAMS 3111 CUM eqvalnt f Local awtemy 162 ----2------------ 16 P1IIEW 2.38 2.22 2.17 2.35 2.S6 2.79 3.S 3.32 3.61 3.92 4.08 4.25 4.45 *4.M 4.84 5.11 3 5.8 5.99 6.3 164 aUrTAl 11.42 10.65 10.3? I1.S3 122S 13.36 14.62 1S. 17.31 18.82 19.61. 20.44 21.35 22.31 23.26 24.54 25.83 .2V 28.79 30.40 165 1U, lfJAOE 30.07 23.19 15 16." 1S.22 13.15 10S6 7.70 4.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 166 OW1AS, UIL 3.34 S.80 7.97 11.32 15.23 19.73 24.8 30.80 37.s5 45.1 45." 46. 47.95 49.0 49.97 51.8 53.6t 55.6 5M.4 9.92 16 omEROR 29.37 25.93 24.11 25.73 2.70 29.92 32.3? 35.0 37.94 41.01 41.99 43.00 44.19 45,43 4.52 48.47 SO5. 52.44 54.65 56.96 168 AUTO OCSIES 43.78 41.77 41.06 55.05 45.32 47.17 50.26 49.89 S4.S4 S.43 6O.S4 63.94 67.82 68.93 69.80 13.29 81.08 5.19 56.so 9AS 16t9f K*l OIEsE1 11.01 9.92 9.42 10.28 11.09 11.85 1.70 13.60 14.S9 1S.61 15.3 16.05 16.34 16.65 168 17.45 17.96 a8.S6 19t.1 19.64 170 3AV RIEL OIL 62.35 7.36 68.46 6.44 .22 61.15 67.95 81.75 63.3 75.22 76.71 63." 65.56 66.12 70.4S 59.56 61.16 65.10 69.19 72.8 in 1 11 2.9S 2.61 2.78 3.01 3.28 S.S 3.91 4.28 469 S. S.40 S.69 6.00 6.33 6.6 7.10 TS4 8.03 8.56 9.12 1n2 ..... ................................................................. .............. 173 Intol 216.66 19S.64 1814.94 202. 26.5 222.72 240.39 242.26 25T.77 262.26 270.16 264.22 273.6 81.46 2.9 289.40 302.9 316.42 30.62 3442 174 115 176 EVPT 31V313 US$ foreign Excbw 178 PoAE0 0.0 010.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 179 WIUAE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 t6 NOWM" 30.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 "5.02 67.10 69.63 69.90 71.05 73.50 71.55 72.33 69.57 6T.29 S1.76 63.05 61.73 62.12 S9.78 60.12 t81t guoTU11o 9.26 0.00 0.00 6.97 14.94 9.45 9.25 10.39 0.86 9.33 7.95 6.61 5.21 4.05 0.00 1.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 t12 AUO Dina51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.21 3.49 126 17.02 17.13 14.4 0.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 t85 MWII 0l11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0O OA 18 MFAW FUEL OI. I -C1 I 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.83 3.10 15.76 12.77 9.44 3.8 U1. 12.13 7.58 6.08 0.00 185 1E1VW RIEL OIL 2 -CM* 11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Q.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1" ...........~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~,,,,,,,,,, ............................................... .- ........................... 6 39.27 0.00 0.00 6.97 ".97 809 82.3? 93.12 97.93 16.-79 9.14 95.56 8.55 80.77 6S.4 78.23 74.36 69.70 65.86 60.72 .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1 0601491 0143 PN FILE a f1W* 2.0.3 LtI 51313, 3A3U *UWID E, O P0311 2 JAMICA OngNo rECWITS811 AIID IESTIT PAIN Sam 3 9fT1 1 IICIEC FINUIAL IMLTIS I- CAtIt - CAT C3A1INS 189 UM UIEALII Ih uIE Ut - fotIgn 1zd.ur 190........... . I91 PIOPAW 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 *.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.m 0.00) 192 30T*33 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 193 Uno 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 L O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10 KIN/TElD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 19S 0m139. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 190M1n 1 11t3U 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 197 IEAV? MU OIL I 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 197 NEA! fEI. OIL 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 I"w ..................................................... ...... It ...... . _ ...._._.,...........___.............. 200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ;t201-------- ...................................-.--................................................. .... . ..................... _.. 202 TOTAL REVUEMS U WsI 2s5.93 19M.64 184.94 209.36 289.82 30S.68 322.76 335.38 355.69 369.05 367.29 359.78 361.21 362.23 354.03 367.a3 37.2 385.12 396.48 405.S4 203 204 : 205 206 1990 191 19 19 1995 1996 1997 1996 MO 2 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201O 207 .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ....... ................................................ 2OB UEiPNS Costs - USS. 209 " 9*X*** 210 211 CRUOE 212 12....... 213 oCt24 117.98 0.00 0.00 100.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.Q0 214 OCFI 0.00 38.27 36.12 0.00 72.37 800.6 84.76 76.58 72.19 75.72 74.94 88.48 83.10 80.29 119.21 72.92 73n. 68.23 74.28 05.64 Zt5 ISTOlUS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 85.20 132.12 138.83 172.73 199.45 20W.39 208.77 176.0 18.68 1.12 95.62 M.2 2".29 213.68 206.29 1.4 216 IIATA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2)7 POUCAD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 218 CRt13tE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 220 TOTAL 1101 CWUDE OM IW lS 117.98 38.27 34.12 100.02 19.50 212.80 223.59 249.32 27.64 203.11 28.7M 265.12 269.7 2n.41 214.83 21.21t .473I.91 M0.57 28.05 221 I 104J91 Ol3U FM fIU a PWUEF 2.0.3 MU85 _OWN 311130D OWSMt , OX P018 2 AUcIt I IIs silEu An 1I_UtNm ow.Mo SW 3 PEUKLM SEP0 IUWUW. £31S18 - C A1t1 - t1 C1RUM SPINES 2Z 1iMANK Lai 1.09 1.02 1.47 O." 1.00 1.08 0.93 O.2 0.36 0.5 1.15 0.99 0.91 1.19 0.3 0.03 0.76 0 o4 .0n 226 lma 53.86 32.37 29.45 16.08 21.16 7.33 O.2 7.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 U.48 .9.2 6.45 20.38 0.00 0.L0 0*00 0.0 0.00 227 KM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.0 226 0US OIL 35.91 56.90 54.07 50.9J 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 35.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 229 *----------- 230 TOTAL SPINES 3001 tl9.66 903U 84.55 40.52 22.14 18.36 19.31 1.40 o.82 0.86 0.85 144 9.91 7.6 S 5.4 0.63 0.5 OM 0.76 0.34 0.o7 231 232 PlODUma 10031TS 234 PSPWAE 0.97 1.64 1.ST 1. 0.20 0.20 0.36 O.4 0.54 0.72 0.95 1.18 1.33 1.55 2.38 1.86 2.10 2.6 24AT 2.84 235 U 1A*3 3.65 6.57 6.41 4.96 6.67 7.30 8.25 1.01 11.74 12.97 13.74 13.62 14.79 1S.5 14.96 1836 t9.46 21.01 22.19 25.96 236 mmsa 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 237 KER/TUtOO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.62 2.01 4.42 5.22 238 AUTO DItSEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 730 ; 1 239 RINE DIES£E 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.21 1.3 6.47 6.40 10.41 3.08 8 240 WAVY FUEL OIL 17.61 35.88 32.22 6.36 5.11 5.51 8.S7 2.81 3.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 241....- . 242 TOTAL COST Of P4AD/NW NILS. 22.23 44.0 40.20 14.5 11.98 13.02 17.17 13.26 15.28 M39 14.68 14.80 16.11 17.30 18.56 21.5S 23.64 31.68 40.04 42.40 243 244 FIXEDjVMIAlBE OPENATtIO CO6T 1S.27 13.99 14.17 15.44 19.34 19.4 .34 19.34 19.35 19.35 19.5S 19.34 19 1.3 19.34 t9.3S 19.33 19.35 t9.35 19.5M I So1" OU43 Fliu a now 2.0.3 On h1UU UUI 1UinWiiM*, 01 FUElS 2 Jluwt_ SICWID 8u1iom 3101_W AN SIfEU PA3IN8 SWl 3 MIRA SC WASCIAL ANLS _ CMI 1 - CAt CAMI1N 2V6 n, 1993 1994 I 19"7 1993 Sm 2000 u ao uM UN 2001 2MW 2=a Z 10 247 U O IAtlo .... . .... . .... . . o ... . .. . . .... 2496110s816 e aptal 0.97 0.97 0.97 0o.9 0.97 0.97 0.97 0. 9 0.97 0.9 0.97 o.9r 0.13 6.0 6.60 0.60 0-.0 0.30 0.00 0.30 0.00 2S troject Capita yr n 0.20 1.53 5.62 8.70 0.70 0.7D 470 8.70 8.1N 8.70 8.70 8.70 6.70 8.70 0.W 8.50 7.17 3.08 0.00 O.O 252 TOTAL OEPI£aCIATIOU 1.17 2.49 6.58 9.67 s.47 9.6 9.67 V? 9.6r7 97 9.64 8. 8.70 5.70 5.7D 5.50 7.17 3.0D 0.00 00 253 254 CAPtTAL IYESthEfT - UNRJICT 3.00 19.92 61.33 46.S 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.o0 0.00 0o.0 0.00 0.00 O.0 0.00 0O.0 2ss flAW? IStUTEJAMc oo3t1 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.0 2.50 2.50 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 25S ---^----.*-................-............................ .................................... 1........ .: ..............,.....,...,,,_ 257 s.s0 22.42 63.83 46.WS 2.50 2.50 25 2.50 2.S0 3.30 3.30. 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 258 FINASESS sTmuICIIm 29 IM 199 1992 1995 194 1995 1996 199 1998 1999 2000 2m 20Q2 2003 200- 2005 200S 20 U 9 10 260 261 Poject Investment 3.00 19.92 61.1 46.2s 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 L.OD 0.00 0.00 0.00 O0O 0.60 0.00 9.6 0ao 262 Locat Ce_ponan 17.01 .51 3.39 10.43 7.u8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0o.0 0.00 23 Forduin Cuh1mt 853.0 2.49 16.63 50.90 38.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 264 26S Lca*t t _ons 266 ---------__._.__ 26? Locat ty Finrad 0.ax 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.O0 0.00 0.00 26 Lot Casu f11wsted 100.0X 0M 3.39 10.43 7.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 269 Local Loan f Inica 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0&00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 270 Local Loan Outstwkln 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.60 271 Lean R_palt ove wr 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.6 0.00 O m Inteet - Xof O0S lao 12.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.6 0.00 273 274 Prelog Coma_nt f276 foreI EquityF Plnnced 6.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 O.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 foreign Loan fincd 10.0 2.49 16.SS 50.S 3.39 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.40 06 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 278 Foign loan OutnstadI 2.49 19.02 69.93 100.31 97.48 36.6S 75.2 64.99 S4.16 4333 32.49 2146 10.8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 279 tow 3t_ops oe pa 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 t0.S 10.5 108 10 10.110.33 10.l 10.63 1053 10.3 0.00 0.GO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20 tatet * Z of IYS to 12.08 0.30 2.2 5.39 1.OO 11.0 10.40 9.10 7.80 6.50 5.20 3.90 2.60 1.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 04I/ n l a f96I2 2.0.3 WAR UUSIM, _IV, MW sm. OX fOKtls 8 *WCA SuET _E bSt 6 - I T 1 a1 mt 3 PRUIWNI 'PC IIGM MAMS *CU It - CCD3U RU A L ALLSUS 33 2U6 Did cptol tI t 15.6 1886 3.78 100.11 46.3 14.36 146 14.36 14S.3 146.3U36146 U6.36 1 1436 146.36 14.36 13 .36 146V36 2M5 Total Capitolt 31tn 18.66 38.15 100.11 14.3 .36 1436 1636 1. 146.6 1M I4.6 14.6 16.6 14.6 1. 14.3 43 14636 16.3 146.5 29 #mlCt Iai' Bula-m 18.06 36.90 9453 1.3S 18.20 106.3 95.74 66.1T 77 69.80 565 M .85 45.19 41.2 31.09 3.38 30A4 27.84 M4 U Amua Atlumo, Ontoab 10.03 1.39 3.69 9.45 13.13 11.62 1.64 9.57 6.62 7.76 6.98 6.2 545 5.09 4.3 4.12 3.11 3.3 3.00 2-10 .4 20U 2W 03sicm 291 I01P.wlm 100.38 292 Uwolg bawI_ 0.03 295 Loa t_ator 0.38s 296b 3*36331 WIALIT 1t3 1003 1005 1002 103 100 100 108 1o00 100 1003 1003105 10 193 1038 190 10 1003100 m a..~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~00 COMM ("to on F1IlE a U3UEt 2.0.3 BASE NAN, SN tiniii OmWIiC* 0 fORION 2 JMIAC1lF 13 1 SKIENT SIATEW A 13313 PLAMII 51131_ 3 I2RLN SECTMR CI AL MALMS - CM11 CAT ACIUS 2 PIIOUII PRIT N OS t E I I IAIENE n 299 300 191t 1992 1993 1994 199 6 199 1990 1999 0 2001 102 23 a 20 am2 a0 a 2009 2010 301 .... .---- ---- - -- 302 bla 11ma 255.93 195.4 10.94 209.6 209.82 303.4 322.76 335.3B 35S.69 369.05 367.29 39.7 36>1. 362.23 351.03 34 37. WM 306.123 36S 405.4 303 Cost of sales 231.U 172 16.07 U13.29 Z23.61 244.10 M.07 215.9 287.74 299.66 29.26 291.55 m.80 296.35 W.23 301.59 308.94 314.35 30.4 WAS 304 .............................................. - . ..................... . ........ .- ........... . - ..--....... 305o 6 et ln 24.05 22.3S 24.07 26.Or S.20 5.5o 42.6 6.40 67.95 6.39 68.0 45.23 45.41 65.8 4.80 6.01 4B3t 71.77 153 78.3l 306 Otherperpatlg InC..8come 8.6 5 8.6 58.6 5 8.65 8.65 8.45 8.65 8.45 8.15 8.65 8.65 .65 8.65 8.S . 8.45 685 4S5 6.65 8.4 307 Operatint Euens 15.27 13.99 14.1? 1S.44 19.34 19.34 19.34 1 19 19.35 19.35 19.31 19.34 19.34 19.34 19.35 19.35 19. 19.315 19.35 308 eovw noentaonce Expuie 2.0 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 310 tnem Prom Operations 14.94 lS.OB 16.05 16.78 44.01 46.31 49.50 S1.21 S4.76 5S.39 54.06 S1.24 S1.41 51.89 50.81 52.05 54.32 57.78 61.03 61J31 311 31a Interest Inma 4.S2 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.S2 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.2S 4.52 313 Intterest xpea 0.13 0.43 2.41 0.52 13.1 11.83 10.53 9.23 7.3 6.43 5.33 4.03 2.73 1.43 0.1 0.13 0.13 013 0.13 0.13 0.13 34 ........................................................................... -- ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,_,,,,,,_ 31S 315Un.ta tnc 4.09 Z.11 -4.00 *8.60 7.30 -&0I -4.t1 -3.41 -2.11 -0.81 0.49 1.19 3.09 4.39 4.39 439 4.39 4.39 4.39 439 51 *----*-***-*^- ........................................................................ -.--- ............................. 317 Ptef It Sefor Taxes 19.03 17.19 12.05 8.17 36.70 40.30 44.79 47.80 S2.65 s4.59 S4.S5 S3.03 S4.S1 56.28 SS.20 56.4 S8.71 42.1? 65.43 68.71 318 319 Less nwestmnt Alt 20.01 0.60 3.90 12.27 9.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 320 Less Amnt Atte 1.89 3.69 9.45 13.13 11.82 10.64 9.S? 8.62 7.76 6.98 6.28 5.65 S.09 4.58 4.12 3.71 3.34 3.00 2.70 2.43 321 .--------- .. . ..... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. --- ... . .. --- . .. . .. . . .. . .. . .. ._ _._ __._ .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..... . __ . _. . .. .. .. .. . .. . .. . . .. . . .. .. _................ 322 TAXABLE hNCO 1634 9.S2 9.67 -14.21 24.88 29.66 35.22 39.19 44.90 47.61 48.2 47.38 49.42 S1.70 51.00 S2.73 SS.3? 59.16 62.72 66.27 323 324 Income Taxs 33.332 S.51 3.17 -3.22 -4.74 8.29 9.89 11.74 13.06 14.96 15.87 16.09 15.79 164 17.23 17.03 7.58 1.4 19.72 20.91 22.09 32S ....................................._,____......................................................................... 326 nt Poft 13.52 14.02 1S.2V 12.91 28.4t 30.41 33.05 34.J4 37.49 38.72 38.46 37.2 38.03 39.05 33.18 33.86 40.25 42.45 44.S2 46.62 32? 328 BOSItS S as I of net p 80.01 0.00 11.22 12.22 10.33 22.73 24. 26.44 2.79 30.15 30.97 30.77 29.19 30.43 31.24 3O.S4 31. 32.20 33.96 35.62 37.2 329 PROFIT TO IETAIEO MM 020.08 13.52 2.80 3.05 2.58 S.66 6.05 6.61 6.95 7.51 7.74 7.69 7.4S 7.61 7.8 7. 7.77 8.05 8.49 L90 9J2 330 331 98SEIIt VAO 01F SIIWUE 8 12.0801 O L SNT UAt 1t.1 332 IITT 33 IpT 200.9 I OVUM1 0103 P FlLE a 1101 flO MU 3 mfl_m U Dm_, atZU £1113 a ;um urs I weIn STORMA IUNel 1 ftMWU Sawn 3 OOSiaM n UML A3KtIS * OM It - CAT 1CU36 334 335 336 $AMNSU I i usB 199 tM 1992 ma ma two IM ma two am aol am 200 MO 200 3 0 206 7 MT 3 I= 0 210M 339 ... ... ... .. ... ... .. ... ... .. ... ...-.. .. s40 AU. 341 342 CaWMs "soets SU3 cob In WAi 19.21 -0.70 '11.05 1723 22.14 15.54 V7.4 19.63 24? 25.53 23.21 34.73 39.13 43M 46.18 OM.5 UA.3 90.92 1M5.O 113.7 1J.1 344 EssetvabtAs *s 36 16.2 21.04 1.06 15.23 17.21 25.32 24.96 26.53 V75? 29.24 30.3 U.19 29.S7 29.69 i.77 29.10 3.2 31.01 31.4 3L.5 3.3 345 Immsgsogis 11.54 346 .cruai.tpIe #pit2 11.49 7.05 6.61 9.23 12.0 12.67 13.31 14.112 14.9 15.47 15.5 1533.33 33 15.21 14.6 1554X 15.6 15.49 15.48 15.61 347 - Proact die 20 14.02 10.72 10.13 11.4? SA.S 1644 1749 1.313 19.49 20.22 20.13 19.7 19.769. 1940"A 20.14 204? 21.16 21.732.2 349 eTaok Cwrs.w Lases 49.01 45. 44.67 49.22 40.66 47.33 71.9077.356.73 69.118 95.4 1WA4 1039 103ir 113.1012.Is 146.1 161.90 173.9610MAY M9.5 351 limas Aosste/Imt is Owvlss in2 $ross 15.66 1.66 3.76 1W0.11 1A6V. 46.366146.36 146.36 J46.36 144.36 14636 146.36 14.64564.64.361463614.3614.3646U3"136146.36 353 km *0wt Aspre 5.10 .V7 6L76 15.4 35.01 34.69 44.4 54.01 a3.6 73.34 83.61 91463 10.51 110.2 In3."127 1V 3 6.11 143.2 146.3 146.3 146.36 355 use As""etosI.Serivla 1.76 124 30.02 64.7? 121.3 11146 102.6 92.3 624 73.0 43.3 513. 44.65 I.1 27.45 18.76 10.26 3.03 0.0 . 0.00Lo 356 357 Imsut=sts to 9hstdlell.0? 11.0? 11.07 11.07 11. 1.0? 11.0? 11.0 11.9F 11.0 11.0 110 ISM0 11.6 S1.M 11.07 11.67 11.67 116 1".r 1".M 359 eet Amas" 76.5 4.51 WA.? 145.06 0.48 "LB0 14.99 W0.77 17.49 17.27 149.6 1m5.3 140. 1551.01514215.1?S 117.6 176.1 16."5 10.5 24. PETNOA I oSOI/ 0143 PN FILE a PINIF 2.0.3 US MRSIUJ* hIWSED OMMD IU, OX FMlsv 2 4MWCA 58V SECTOR SlTEGY MIE IWESINT PUIII. SIWY 3 TITL SECTOR FUlINAIL ANALSIS - CASE It - CAT UACKIUN 361 LIASILITIES 3U3 Pty*bta dys. 30 36.70 19.06 14.20 13.22 15.06 19.12 20.0T 2135 2.7 M. 24.63 2.59 24.21 21.31 24.36 23.7? 31.79 2.39 25.54 36.42 26.90 364 interest on Curent 0d*0.22 0.52 2.50 8.61 1.22 11.92 10.2 9.32 6.02 6.72 5.42 4.12 2.12 1.52 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.2Z 0.22 s 5 *------------.--.-.................................................................... .-, _.._................. 366 36.92 9.58 16.70 21.84 28.28 31.0 30.69 35.70 30.29 30.37 30.0S 28.7 27.0 25.83 24.58 23.99 25.01 25.61 26.06 26.64 27.12 368 LoUn Tom Debt 1.51 4.00 20.54 7t.44 109.63 99.00 86.16 77.33 66.S0 55.67 44.84 34.01 23.18 12.35 1.Sl 1.51 1.S1 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 369 370 Paid In Capital 371 OJ 0 3."6 3.46 3.6 3.46 3.6 3.66 3.46 3.46 346 3. 3."6 346 346 3.6 646 3466 3.46 3.6 3.46 3.6 346 372 *'*w - Foreign inlOOl 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.C0 0.00 0.00 373 Locat Partner 100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.G0 0.00 0.00 0.00 374 .................................................................................................................................................. 375 Total 3S.6 3.46 3.6 346 3.66 3.46 3.66 3.66 3.66S.6 3.36 6 3.66 3.46 3A 3.66 346 3.46 3.46 3.46 376 377 Retained SEmirns Z5.75 4.27 45.OT 48.13 50.71 56.39 62.47 69.08 76.03 83.S7 91.31 W.01 106.45 114.06 121.8r 129.50 137.3 145.33 153.6 162.72 172.01 379 totat Liabliltle 70.85 69.51 85.97 145.06 192.48 190.00 184.99 180.77 176.49 173.27 169.86 165.39 160.32 1ss.90 151.62 15sa8 16T.46 176.12 185.05 194.54 204.33 380 381 W/E ATIO(lTI/IOADBE) 5.02 8.7X 31.31 59.7X 6.141 63.71 5.5X 52.8X 46.7X 40.01 32.9X 25.G 17.9X 9.8 1.21 1.21 1.111. 1, I.m 0.9x 0.93 32 383 I GOOM IU 11 FILI a VIt_ 2.0.3 WA MMN* 1011 IOAW1C UF I tVClk _11 IN 0 _LM M i PlltI SW 3t MOM 'ir 1 U AT -M t ' CX SM S Ru9 14 0 91 5 033 uu UMDW1UI.UVI 386 2030113 AMAPPL0IUn OF KMD 300 33303A0OF 1121991 " 199 1994 1995 16 t19 I9 999 29 2001 2101 2NU 2NO 4 U0 N 6 2007 20 0 U 330 - v- ---a- --*- --*- 391 ftt fm spo§eas 1.52 14.02 152711.9 33.41 30.41 33.s 34.4 37.69 33.72 33.46 3.21 3.0 39.05 3.1 3.S 40M 42.45 44.52 462 3 Seprelotsit 1.17 2.49 6.95 9.67 9.67 94A? 967 9.47 9467 9.67 97 A 8.3 .710 . 7 03.70 8.50 71? 3.0118 0.00 0.00 393 1_m 2.49 1653 SO." 3J39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.oo OA LoD 8.00 0.0 0 0 9 394 &pitty 0.00 0.0 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0*00 0.00 0. L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0O. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 395 UAC .OO 0.00 0.00 0.ao 0.00 0.00 0.00 0oB0 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0. 0.103 0.00 0OQO 0. 0.00 0.00 0.00 31 ................. . ........................................... -.----- . .. ... .. ........ ..... 397 otal _oen 17.17 3305 72.6 60.96 33O. 40.0 4La 44.41 4735 4.33 4.13 46 46.73 47.75 46 47416 47Az 45.3 44.52 46"2 39.s " )400 t 401 tnmme In Uo1m4 CAItal 14.17 1.91 O.09 4.39 4.52 4.92 5.45 5.78 63 6.58 6.53 SAS 5.48 54816M 16.2 15M 11.57 8.90 9.2 )402 Copltd It 3.00 19.92 61.3 4.25 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .0o 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 403 PrIncipal _pepmt ta 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 108 tO1. 10.03 10.33 10.33 103 10.35 10.3 10.3 10.L53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 404 intweet Dmpmp4 (prt of opeatin 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.00 0.00 0.00 0.O 0.00. 0.0 0.00 0.0 405 DItvd. Pomt - J laSW os 0.00 11.22 12.22 10.3 22.73 24 IL4 27.19 30.15 30.97 30.?? 29.9 30.A3 31.2 30.4 31.09 32.20 33.6 35.2 372 406 S0v1I&d PWwP* - FeipnPa 0.O 0.00 0.O0 0.00 0.00 oa0 0.00 0.00 0.O0 0.00 o0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0O. 0.00 407 Dfvdmih wnt - LoadPfrt 0O. 0O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.D 0 oo eo 0. . .oo 408 ............................. * - *9... ................................................................................... -**@**os**o*o.................................................... . .. . .. . . . . . .. . .. . . .......*e v * ** * ** * * ** o * ** o 409 otat Awlatiem 17.1T 33.00 72.76 60.96 3803 40.00 42.72 44.41 4r35 48.38 4L.1 4.O 46.73 4.5 465 47 47.42 455 44.52 46A2 410 1 t ta4 211FtA* If2 " Z inumi an I 00/04j9 0143 to FILE a rnts 8.0.3 SUN 3SI6* MINXEDm .I'm IC*.O rosmm 2 _WCA1 mI I 0 11s mi mINWSINENT PUNASS OM? 3 PMW SKIN FUIMAL MALSIS - CAS It - CAT C*CK-13 44 t~OITI UoSn M43E0M* UES" 448 _ 449 t199 192 3 1994 195 19f6 1t 1996 1999 2 g0 201M 2002 2M0 11 20 O66I 2M0Y 28 2W 2MO 450 PSitVATEIITINS 00WUIE e.... .... .... .... .... .... 451 4s2 PROPE 0.60 0.G0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 43 W6EAM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 00 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 45 Own, 100 29.25 22.44 19 6.3 14.71 12.73 10.34 7.48 4.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.O 0.00 0.00 0.00 45S IOS, UuIES 3.25 S.61 7.6? 10.92 14.71 9.0 24.13 29.91 36.33 0.93 4.76 45A0 464 4.7t 46. 50.44 521 54.1 56.1 58.31 456 w!j/1umo 28.3 24.68 230 24.61 26.54 28.73 3114 33.75 36.42 39.4 40.58 41.4 42.69 43.8 4.91 4A. 4 5045 52. SSA 4ST AUTO DIEOEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0o.oo O.O 00 0.00 0.00 0 O. 00 456 lWlIE DIESL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0O. o.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 459 MmW FUEL Ott 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 440 ASPALT 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 00 O 0.00 0.00 "Il .................................. .......................................................... ........... . ........ . ........ _.- ..... 462 0.86 52.93 48.61 51.92 SS.9? 60.55 45.61 71.t3 77.21 63.56 85.35 67.15 69.34 91.58 93.50 97.S 100.n5 104.79 Iot.99 113.3 464 46? PROPANE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 466 6UAAiE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.0 469 SAS, WEORD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 470 WnOAS, ULmD 0.O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 471 3EAtno 040 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 4*2 AUTO OIESEL 0.o0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 473 SAIME DIESEL 010 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.lo 0.00 0.00 0.00 474 06WM fEM OIL 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.O 0.00 0.00 417 AWUALT O.O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 476 ..................................-**-----......................................... .- .............. . .......... __._ ........._____ 4n7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 47. ......................................................................................................................................... 472 MDAL OaE-T6OU I00t COS 40.86 SL93 48.61 51.92 55.97 40.5 65.61 71.13 7.21 e3.56 5.35 sT.15 89.34 91.58 95.5O 9T.X 100.75 104.79 108.99 113.37 480 I 00/0191 01:43" *I UtSI - tt_ 2.0. ug mmn_usmumMi. U O 106 a MWn1t mu,issus 5018 M sms PsI. SUDY 3 PSILW SKT FINrW MALTSIS - CAN It - ClT CIUS 453 40 ............. 48 191 1 "1 194 1a 1996 199 S 19 t 199 0 2001 20 2003 2001 2005 2001 2am 20 1 2"10 47 ES .... .. .... .. ... ... .. .... .. . UlS ..*........ 419 9309385 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0. 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0O.O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 490 WUIlt 0.0 0.O 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0. 0.00 8.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 .OOJ 491 Now, LIMD 30.0? 2.19 18.5 16.O98 15.22 13.15 10.67 7.70 4.1? 0O 0.00 O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.OD 492 mm01, UNUYESM 3.34 S.80 7.97 11.32 15.23 19.73 21.89 30.0 37.s7 45.12 4S.99 46.B? 4T.95 49.05 49.97 S1.7 53.61 55.64 S 7.74 59.92 493 KIE3U0/It3 29.3 25.93 24.11 25.73 2.70 29.92 32.37 35.02 3.94 41.01 41.99 43.00 44.19 4S.4 46.52 48L47 50.32 52.44 S4.6S 56.96 494 AUTO OtE5E 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0.0 0.00 0.00 49S AOINE DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 496 LAW P5UEL OIL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0 .00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 497 ASPFALT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0o.0 0.00 o.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 L0. 0.00 0.00 0.00 49 ---|-----------*-------- ..................................................................................... . ...... 49 W2.75 54." 50.66 S4.05 W.15 62a0 67.93 73.52 79T45 Z64 87.96 59.87 92.14 94.4B 9.50 100.34 103.93 108.06 112.39 116.3A 500 WIS SOt ----- 50 Isqrtatln 60.86 S2.9 48.61 51.92 55.97 60.5 65.6t 7t.13 7.21 3.3O 85.3 87.1 89.34 1.5 93.50 9.25 100.5 104.79 10.99 113.3 505 tndnlttee VOIIL 0.? 1.23 1.29 13 1.33 1.42 1.4 1.51 1.56 .1 1.6 1.7 1.76 1.82 18 .1.94 .00 2.0? 2.13 2.20 2.27 501. . . . . . . . . . . . . ........................................................................... 55 S62.It S4.2 49.94 53.30 s53 62.0 67.12 72.69 78.62 65.23 67.06 O.91 91.16 93.46 *. 99.25 101.81 1.92 111."9 11S.6 S06 ..... ...................--..-.........., ,,,, ..... . .. SO IURCIIAL OfIt UIFOR TAX 0.6? 0.69 0.7 0.74 0.76 0.79 0.81 0.84 0.87 0.8 0.92 0.95 0."9 1.02 1.05 1.09 1.2 1.16 1.20 1. 509 MURElm 33.33! 0.22 O.23 0.21 0.25 0.25 0.26 O.27 0.25 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.3 0.35 036 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.41 St -.......................................................................................................... 51t MIUAL POfIT Ante TMl 0.45 0.46 0.48 0.49 0.51 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.60 0.62 0.6" 0.66 0 0.70 0.72 O.1 0.77 0J 0.0 512 S51 PIt 8EMTRtATIl 50.0OZ 0.22 0. 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.2 0.2 0.25 0.29 0.30 .31 032 0.3 0.34 03 0.36 0. 0.39 OAO 0.41 514 s51 35t SNO 931.1 Of 0t313. PIOUIT 12.001 4.10 516 3 fM OAU MVS a I - CM CI S SI oF hCF . i sn 52 *%WM CA_ _S MLUIVS Klll 1"a5 N0J _ UUP or pi1 2S -- n-** .- .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... _. .... .... .... .... .... _. .... 523 sv S2U Cpurrt Alte m---. .... -... .. ... SU0 Ptr.Ji Impsf Sates 39.27 0.00 0.00 6.97 79.97 86.96 12.37 93.12 97.93 1MY 97.14 95.U 67.55 MsIT 65.64 78.2 7436 69.70 65.06 60.72 531 53U CapItal AeCeiAt 54 ptdty Istnuunt In Petrolm 0.0. 0.00 0. 0. 0.08 0.00 0.Q0 0.00 0.00 0.ao o. 0 . 0.00 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 LomS - Cbiptal hwsetmt 2.49 U.S3 S0.90 3 0.36 0.0 0.00 0.40 0.0 0.6 O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 G.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0 M7 WtAL 41.76 16.3 0.10 4.3JS 79.97 0.96 6. ".12 7." .0 9.1 4 9.54 6.5 W 0.7I 45.4 7823 73 49.70 65.3 60.7 5351_S 53W APLICATIIIS SZo Sit curnt Accemtt So .._................. 5s Petr,jai fwd.e" @1 Cow* 16.4 133.63 12&.6? 166.54 z2.4 23t.16 z2.9 2ff42 273.46 M5.97 26.5 279.75 31.69 279.0 270.6 28.04 20.30 352.672 1.41 261.02 544 PeeJm Pr=t Pur1ham 22.23 4.W 40.20 4.7 11.99 13.02 17.17 1.26 15.28 1369 14.6 14.00 16.11 17.30 1856 215 20. 31.48 40.04 42.40 545 0eey .bintaesn lp SO.0Q 1.25 125 1.25 1.2 1.25 1. 1 1.21.25 1.23 1.6 1.5 1.0 1. 1.65 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.65 1.65 1.65 546 _ 4Pmeb Ep_e 60.02 3.05 2.80 2.63 3.09 3.8 3. 3.8 S36 3.87 3. 3.87 3.87 3.67 3.67 3.r 3.87 3.87 S.8 3.7 .6 5S47 ftrWlslf C=enIe PM*Att P 60.36 52.93 4861 51.92 S5.9t a.55 6.1 71.13 T7.21 6.58 65.3S G.1S 9.34 9n.# n9.so9WAS 100.75 1J 10.79 1 L0 11.3 so6t 3w omem prouts parh 0.00 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.0 0.00 0.00 549 Iltest en rwe1n Lemo 0.30 2.20 8.39 13.00 11.76 10.40 9.10 7.o 6.50 5.20 3.90 2.60 1J0 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5SO DOlvntd RpqUletie - fhxl 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0.00. 0 0.0 0.00 551 Dlvldwd Reptrlstte - Meo. 0.22 0.23 0.36 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0J0 0.31 0J2 D33 0.34 035 036 0.37 0.3 0.40 0.41 2 0M A as ll" PK Flu 3A13f 2.0.3 OM iltW, ESUTEN n u" 3 3 PRIDSWSS UPS FINACIAL 1 LSIS - CMS It CRY CSIU 5 tCpital llemt 5 Pteim Capital gohl 2.49 1653 S0.0 3 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0s 0.00 0.O0 0.00 55 Ptcip.t Ropmom 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 "10.3 10.5 10. 0. 10.83 10.3 10.5 10.6 1o. 106 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ssr ............. ..... ....................................................................... . .................. S59 MAL MMS M.74 2".0 M.18 3U.8 331.K 351.00 .t4 W 9 M.0 .4 M.9 4 .12 .6 3.60 . n1U5.# WAS . 4X 5110 561 NET t 4 EXCIAmh fnow -258 -23|2 -222 26 -2V 7 250 -269 -273 .210 -298 -308 -30 -316 24- -X33 -3 -341 -355 -31 -36 564 M.33 9AtME OF UfT PMISN UOl3P. CAMI 12.003 -am3 516 *IiCaulit L3131 OF 0AI1410 TOTAL. 313m 90.93 .905 622.2 M BANKl 50 I 08104j91 01£3 P1 tlE£ * 93FIEf 20.3 gm PARS, N.UUEE Os"ICE* o "Man 2 JAtC EItEM? DECll JD15CI 31341116 5 ISWIEN USIS31 3 FTITUO loRCT FIWICAL ANALsSI - CanE it . AT CaChbS so "s nrn OF film^O sr sn 572 fISlL "An111111 100.016J UAI1IP s n ------------------------------- ---- s54 199 1992 13 1994 19W5 196 1 6 5W99 a 0 00 n5o am2 2n 200 2006 an NW 0 ..5. ,,,, ,,,, ,,,, ,,,, ,,,, ,,,, ,,,, .... . .... Sn ------P---- 515 ItOut O.ay 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0O. 0.00 0.00 Lo 0O.0 579 Inm ,ITIV - Peteim 5.51 3.1? -3.22 -4.74 8.2 9.9 11.74 1.06 14.96 1S. 16.09 1.79 1.47 17.23 17.03 17.58 U.4 197.n 21.91 22.09 500 Inm Tax - ftrketiug Ca- u 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.35 0.2 L 0.2? 0.5 0.29 0.30 0.31 0. 0.33 0.34 0.3 0.36 0.3 o03 O0O OA. 59 *wl from ttomjm (a 0.00 11.22 12.22 10.33 22.73 24.33 2.4 2.79 30.15 30.9? 30.77 29.79 30.43 31.2 30.54 31.09 32.20 53.96 352 37 63 TOAL S.74 1442 9.23 .81 31.28 34.48 3.4S 41.13 4S.40 47.4 47.17 45.90 47.23 48.8 47.92 49.0 51.03 5.07 5692 59.0 564 S 84 --------- s 58 Aplcatlons S*dty Itwetmmt 0.002 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.OD 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 58t TOTAL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 S90 2 NET CAII lO 5.74 14.62 9.23 5.14 31.211 34.48 38.S 41.13 45.40 47.14 47.17 4S.90 47.23 4.1 47.91 49.0 S1. SL4.07 56.92 S9.0 593- 594 595 5 _15S StiE 12.0218.0 '4.. U.N~~~~~~ 01 egl-o 0oz nu a In am "O tt ore we ore we wel we weo w we wre 00 weo weo we weo we wo wel sooe 01 w we aMiwmm t Aipg 1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~w ew * Ad arn , 119 m "$t o WO OO-O OO- O-O OO N OOO D O-OOODOR OON NO OO OI OO ON O NO O-O CO O OD-N OO- OO-O SI5~ IS@ .................................. . .......................................w 0.0 :0 000 A iuwg' Oro we woe W we we we wre w we we wo wo we weloW olo we weft tit wo solo0010 000 Ad " ......... 0t we0 sol we1 we1 we were we w e we w00oe WC We we we wel were 00 000e 01 Ad i ijvu= IA6 we0 we1 we Wes we we we we we1 we1 we1 we we W-e we1 solo we we' we' 00e 0059 *1-w0- VUI~ ~ *1S we -010 solo we we Wsn U.S 0013 0t 0e wen WC w. -ee w1- sole we. D#e. see. we. suni MW 11516g * " 'D"_ e_ '"_ r~~~~~~~~~~~~ I _IN " " b INUt W * It no 1ILuTW la mEANS hIU £ MIlS nuIUW LUmwuN W LUSUIS UIUS mmUE WIW a *RmN we lluiuu Mamm *mm nu sra "AMi a m3 IN VAN RUmPU I I 080^1t Ott83 on fILE a FIRF 2.3.1 MU 1Z, BOM1UMRC, ?5 Mt1 I J^ICA INRT SECTORt SllTEM MI 11EJIII1 KWItNGl SWUI 3 MM ECO F1tMU ANAtMS - CU tl -CRT CU 1 6 .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .. . .. .... .... .... .... .,.... .... .... .., .... .... .... .._.. .... .... ..* I ~ FRM ERM a lito of bwto to LOCAL o_M ON REnn It1 -----------*----------- 12 UEw O.tO 0.11 0.11 0,12 M.3 0.t0 0.14 O.U5 O.S O.t6 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.t 022 0-3 CA 0.5 0.26 1 BUAN 0.42 O." O.46 Q.48 O-Si 0.53 OJ% 0.59 0.6 0.05 0.60 0.71 0.7S 0.79 0."3 0.87 C." o.s6 1.0 1.os U mmU, bEw_ 0.93 0.8S 0.7 O.69 O.S8 0.48 o.3n 0.2S O.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 O.Q° iS NOW6, UIILW 0.10 0.2t 0.33 0.S O.S8 o.n 0.86 t.02 t.t8 i.35 1.39 1.43 t.4r 1.52 t.56 1.6t t.66 t.J1 Uw t.8t 1 E U 0.84 0.86 0.9o.n0.95 0.90 . . 1.02 1.0S 1.09 1.12 1.16 t.20 1.24 1.20 tM .31 t.42 1.47 1.S3 1.S8 17 0U DtESEt 1.3S I-Si t.65 2.14 I."9 1.60 1.71 1.62 I.69 1.7 1.B1 1.93 2.06 2.11 2.tS 2.31 2.48 2.S4 2.60 2.67 IS ItUE DIEM 8.3S 0.36 0-M 0.41 0.42 0.4 G." 0.4 S ." 0.47 0.48 0.49 O.St O.S2 L.£ O.S4 O.S6 LR 10.59 0.60 t9 nFV FUL 01 4.SS 4.71 4.85 4.56 S.10 S.t3 5.32 4.74 4.62 4.00 4.tt 3." 3.5? 3.n3 3.90 3.2 3JS 3.54 3.n4 3.9t 20 rOM 0.1t o.il 0.12 0.t3 0.14 0.1S 0.16 0.16 0.n 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.26 0o 0.29 . 0.31L3 22 8.7S 9.11t 9.S 9.90 tO.10 10.24 10S 10.0 10.1 9.U 10.00 9.62 10.0t 10.39 t0.6 IO.46 IBM t13 tt.78 t2.8 23 EXTS 24 -------*-- 2S IIEoA 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.eo o.ao o.20 o.00 o.0 26 "em 0.0 0.00 0-00 °-°° 0-00 °.°° °.°O o.oo o.oo o.oo 0.00 o.oo LoD ao .oo o.oo o.oo o.oo o.oo o0 oo .oo 27 NOW" B.*1 0.00 0.00 0.00 2;66 '2.61 MGS 2.45 236 2.32 2.28 2.34 Z.26 242 1.72 2.07 2.02 2.Q2 .93 1.94 28 KEROStU88 fl.$ 0.00 O.OD0 3iO 0.61t . 0.3 4 0.36 0 32 0.29 0.2S 0.21 A 0.1 3 0.tX 0. 04 0.0 0 o.o .0 o.oo ov0 29 AMn DIEME 0.Q0 0.06 o.0 ao .oo a.oo 0.11 0. 4?GA 0.59 o.sr 0.49 0.0$ .o 0.0 0 0.00 0.0 ,00 0.06 0.00 0.00 o.ao 30 OI 1tZ D l .ao o.oo 0.00 0.00 o.ao 0.00 o.ao 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.eo 0.04 0.00 0.00 o.ao 0.0 3t WMV FUEL OIL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.44 0.20 IOS O.J14 ka6 0.93 0.94 0.84 O.SO 0.40 0.00 32 ------*--.v-.-.--.-................................................................ __ . ..................... 33 I.ZM 0.00 O OD 0.30 XV2 3.16 3.05 3.29' 3.20 3.62 3.2 Z l 3.t V. 2.ff 205 3.05 2U06 2.52 23S 1.ff ,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~6 1 IM M OliS flU a n151 2.3.1 RUIS O1W, E.UCID 061 1CE. 150 M F3 2 JUIICA BOW WM SIM An I_115 PLANWNIIS SI3IW 3 PET01.1 IC FIU1UIAL *MALVS - CAN II - CAT COMINS # _mlun SemtIM.tinm tu,ntry 36 _npU PS anMT Of ES AIM sr Iudtw I 40 ADO Uto fint) 41 Nerini 01usdt 42 Fet olt 43 ....... ...................................................................................--.-... 44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ,0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 415 ~~~~~........................................................................._, _..__............. . ____._ ..._ .._ 46 tUNAL DEMO3 10.03 9.18 9.58 10.19 13.37 13.40 13.63 13.31 1.39 13.25 03.22' 13.23 13.20 13.36 13.41 13.51 13.75 O3A4 14.1t 14.17 47 46 49 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 199Z 199 1999 2t00 2001 2002 2003 2001 2005 20MM 2007 2000 20 2010 SO - ....-. .... .... .... ........ .... ... .._ .... ... ... ........ .... ..... . .... .. .... ........ .... ........ .... ....... .... ...... St iSI h % 52 . -....... 53 PROPANE 0.05 0.09 0.0" 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.11 0.09 0.1 0.11 .1 0.13 S4 SITAXE .IS 0.30 0.32 0.24 0.31 0.32 0.35 0.41 0.46 0.49 .52 O.S2 0.5s 0.61 0.58 0.71 0.75. 0.80 0.81 091 Ss NOGso 0.0e 0.00 0.o0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S6 t3SE UOMED . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.c0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.1S sr AM10 DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.23 S8 WAIS OIESL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.21 0.21 0.34 0.10 59 8EAVV PUEL OIL 1.07 2.S6 2.St 0.64 0.38 0.39 0.57 O.18 O.t8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 40 ........................................................... . ............................................ 61 1.26 2.f5 2.90 0.9* 0.69 0.72 0.94 0.61 046 O.S2 0.56 0.57 0 6 0.75 0. 1.0 1.18 1."4 1.51 62 I 001j91 02 l U F 311 FIM 2. 31 FAiNtS, UUIW $800108tS, 155 P003 a JAWCAi I35 VIUCIOS 3430 MU IUVSSUIT ¶1133 in ~0 I 360011 IFtFTIR nOACIAL ANAn1351 - CA t . CAT CLlIs 6 cma UA - sittm of barres 65 - 4 ef21 S.82 0.00 0.00 637 0.00 0.00 0 00D 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 L.0 0.00 6T Se 17 0.00 2." 2.74 0.00 54.1 S3 S3 4.4 4.16 4.16 4.16 4.96 4.69 4.56 6.3 4.16 4.16 3.35 4.t6 3.4 de tStJS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.56 6.72 6.72 T.96 8.76 8.76 0.76 7.43 7.30 6D09 4.06 8.t6 La76 9.07 0.76 9.27 69 MAYA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 OD OO. 0.00 0.00 0.00 To FIRCWU 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0Q 71 a1omutu 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0O O.0 0.00 0.e0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 i3 TOAL MULE C 5.82 2.59 2.74 637 11J.9 12.11 t2.11 12.02.91 212.9 12.9t 1239 12.57 125 10.91 12.91 2.1 12.92 12.91 1L02 74 76 VI3$ SUN - IlUttn of barrtls 7t o------- 7s 01n*E 0.09 0.06 o.o0 0.09 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.45 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.OS 0.05 .0OS 0.09 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.01 0.01 79 SAPLIA 2.06 1.46 1.50 O.79 1.00 0. 0.76 0.OZD 00 0.00 0.00 .SO 0.34 0.25 0.1 0.00 0.0 0.00 O.00 0.00 a am30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - lIS OtOI 1.24 2.36 2.54 2.31 0.00 0.00 O.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 00 1.18 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 a 2 .................. ................................. .......... ................. ,..... ... .... ... ... ... ..... .. ..... . ..... . ........- , 83 1014L Witne 3.37 S.A 4.t1 3.19 1.05 OJ1 0.84 ZSS 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.56 038 0.30 2.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.01 as 86 .~~ I 9614 DI OSu Po FiLl a FI33 2.3.1 LAW6 3 5 ErAUCI OUWURCE, 151 10II31 I 1KTMB !' WtOMLS - ONtl -U CW " awa mw cm mis - sawhinar"aings S * 193 toni 1992 199 199411 1996 197 98 19 200 018022051 3004 301 00 206 200 200 2010 9 .*.. * *.- .... ....e .... ..... ... .. . .... ..... .... ....... ..... 90 CUS U P01T FICES - USAUL 92 93 oaUl Psu tI es (U) 94............ 95 PROPANE 20.41 17.94 16.54 17.12 7.3 18C2 19.47 20.2 21.5 21.4 2t.6 21.48 21.37 21.0 21.08 21.20 21.21 21.3 21.51 21.3 11 SUANE 25.02 21.94 20.19 20.8 21.76 2.n 2378 24.72 25.72 UJ726.50 26.25 614 26.80 2s.78 25.95 2.0 Z.6 .2 24? 97 was 32.94 37s5 24.92 258 21.9 2 2.71 31.19 3S8 3436 34.01 33.66 33.44 33.21 323 33*11 332 33.47 33.71 3 .r9 98 KtlU 33.86 28.77 25.78 26.68 2.85 29.17 3.60 32.08 33.68 3.2 34.92 34.6 34.34 34.12 33.76 34.01 34.13 34.37 34.6 34.W 99 MTO DIESE 31.32 26.50 3.66 24.51 25.62 2.6 2.22 29.63 31.t. 32.65 32.3 31.99 31.78 31.56 31.23 31.4 315 31.1t 3L24 322 100 IMINE D1SL 38.30 25.6 22.0 23.71 24.79 .00 27.30 23.67 30.13 3t.59 31.2 30.94 30.74 30M 30.21 30.44 30.4 38.77 31.00 31.2 101 KYVt PAEL OIL 16.53 14.02 12.56 13.01 13.59 14.2 14.96 15.49 16.46 17.26 17.09 16.92 16I 16.70 162 1 16.70 62 16.95 17. 1012 1053 1;11 1 INPUT Wa NOW1S PRICES; 3MEIT/AUIINA PRODUCT PRICES *05 ........................................... 106 POANE t1.61 61.3 7.21 7.S0 7.92 8.42 8.96 9.72 10.53 t13 11.15 10.9r 10.6 10.75 .57 10.69 10.15 1045 11.08 11.3 tO UTWANE 4.62 11.43 9.3 9.14 10.20 10.91 1.460 12.54 13.54 14.S4 14.32 14.10 13.96 13.02 1340 13.75 13J2 13.98 1.14 1.9 108aus 30.68 25.56 32.52 23.35 24.4 25.68 27.02 28.S0 30.09 31.66 31.31 30.96 30.W7 30.52 30.17 30.41 30.53 30.7? 31.82 31.2 1l09 MOl muo 30.94 25.79 22.73 23.56 24.6" 25.91 27.26 28.75 30.35 31.94 31.58 3123 31.01 30.79 30.4 304S 31.80 31.01 31.29 31.S4 110 AUFO oIEtL 2W.3) 24.45 2t15 Z2.34 23.36 24.57 25.35 27.26 26.78 30.2 29.95 29.61 29.40 29.19 28.86 29.09 29.20 29.43 29.47 29.50 ttt I3II3l DIESEL 20.36 23.63 20.83 21.59 22.60 23.75 26.9 26.35 278 29.27 28.95 28.62 28.4 2L. 27.8 28.12 23.22 2a.4s 28.8 21.91 112 NAVY RUEL OIL t 1S.13 12.59 11.05 11.49 12.02 12.64 330 14.03 14.82 15.0 15.43 15.26 15.15 5.04 14. 14.98 15.01 15.16 15.29 15.41 113 IVWt fUML OIL 2 16.06 13.55 12.06 12.50 13. 13.71 14A4 15.14 15.93 16.71 164 16.J6 1.25 16.14 15.97 6.09 15 t6.2 16.9 t6J2 114 11 116 IPU PANITY R MMS 117. 1ie 30063. LEU 31.43 26.34 23.32 24.17 25.28 2.55 2.92 29.3 30.98 32.56 32.21 3t.86 31t. 31.42 31.n7 31.31 31.43 31.67 31.92 32.17 119 mu, UltD 31.43 26.34 23.32 24.17 25.20 26.55 27.92 29.39 30.98 32.56 32.21 31.86 31.6 31.42 31.0 31.31 31.43 31.67 31.92 32.17 120 121 IT PARITT fOR AULt 26.18 23.43 21.81 22.31 22.95 23.67 M.4 25.26 26.13 26.99 26.80 26.61 26.9 2.37 26.18 2631 26.37 26.5 26" 25.7 122 ----------------------- I asim1 01323 pH FILE p lu 2.3.1 OM 6053, 3361 OumMCK5 M "us1 I JCIA 1"35 SPIBM0 1136115 - IIMWI? P6AUNM 5 I PIIUM iPs IFCIAL *3SIS8- CM 13 - UT -CIMT r2n 1w m m92 1"94 ma msw tern me1 19 am o9 am 21 am 2m1 =amyn mg M0 12S 10tm ON IltttE UFIF*- rfav- - -- -....- .... ... .... ... .... . . .... . .... .._.. .... ... .... .... .. . ... . .... . .... .. .... 12. .d..... .41 ...... 1AME UT2 " E 2.3t n.78 2.32 16.92 194 2.20W." 1.14 260 23. 21.21 2.0 .0 25 23. 45 2.57 M.M U3.16 3.18 f.0 t 12n 137*E 2. 2V.39 24.31 22.S6 23.26 21.3 25.11 2L.S 2.0 28.10 29.0 8.7 25. 2551 20.3 281 s.30 23.35 2. 34 920.54 129 maS, le_ 8.3n 32.31 27.21 24.20 25.0 2&.16 27. 28.60 30.2? 31.6 33.1 33A9 32. 32.S2 32.U 31.M 32.19 -I 32.5 323 35.0 130 mm, huLf 0.1 32.2 2r.22 24.20 2S.OS 26.1W 27.4 28.3 30.3 31.7 33.4 33.09 32.74 32.52 32.0 J.5 32.19 32.31 AM5 M OM 13tn 5WWIS 1.21 35.07 29.99 21.99 27.A9 29.06 30.35 31.51 .3.29 34.89 36.48 363 3.7? 35.5 35.n 33 319 33. 35.34 359 353 6.0 132 AM0 15E1 1.17 32.49 2n.67 24.13 2SAG 26.9 204 29.3 30.8 32.32 332 33.49 33.16 32.9 32.73 32.4 32.6 32.76 32.9 33.2t 33.4S 135 W3aShlnL 1.5 31.89 2.22 24,4 25.30 2.36 27.9 28.09 30.26 31. 33.18 32.84 32.SS 32. 32.12 31.60 30 32.13 32.36 32. 32 134 WAW FM OIL 1.36 18.0J 1S.58 14.11 14.56 15.S 15.1" 16.52 1T.2s 10.0 1.32 1 8.0 3.48 1037 18.26 U1. 1.2 1.26 1838 15so 1845 135 ASAT o.7 26.9 24.20 22.59 Z5. 23.12 4.4 25.25 26.04 26.91 27.7T V.57 27.35 271 27)4.U4 26. 7.60 7.15 2.0 2.42 D7.5 INS I37CM" 130 ..- 139 Cf2r 20.28 17.20 15.24 15.71 16.31 1T.1 1.O4 18.95 .19.91 20.86 20.72 20.59 20.52 20.45 20.31 32.3 25s4 20.45 20.52 o.5" V1 nCly t7.S0 14.7 13.16 1S34S 14.25 4.95 1.n 16.51 17.36 u.21 W8.O5 1t.5 tr.72 17A9 17.41 17.54 1r7.0 17.7 1r.8 18LOO 141 IST18US 23.43 19.86 17.0 18.09 1.72 19.67 20.67 21.75 22.78 2S." 23.54 23.77 23.70 23.63 2.56 23.56 23.S6 23.56 20.56 25.56 1HZ M4 1 9.64 16.66 14.81 1S.29 15.90 t6. 1T.4S 15.4 ¶9.W7 239 20.14 9.98 t9.S 19.32 l9.67 19.1S 191" 19.As 19.0 20J.D 143 FoRCAOs 2S.46 21.70 19.33 19.9 23.S 21.W5 22.72 23.60 24.95 26.15 26.00 210 5 25.9 S 2s.7a .8 7s 3.78 25.75 25.78548 t44 CRIE131 22.81 19.17 16.60 17.41 1. 1W.07 20.1 21.17 22.20 23.44 2n3.3 23.30 23.22 23.t15 8 3. 2.60 23.6D33.5 23.6 23.60 145 m4e611*3 3.72 1r.49 15.56 16.11 16.2 1TAt 18.9 19.43 20.45 21.43 21.21 20.5 3 20.71 20.49 203. 23.71 i 21.0S 21.18 4IPH 26.40 22.12 19.53 20J.0 2.21 22.35 23.45 29 .6t2 234 27.65 21.76 26.? 2132.09 2.30 2. 2 2. 27 mo m 3243 2.50 26.47 25.3 U." .4 72 29.0 30.5 318 33.77 33.41 33.06 " 3 L2 3 2. 325 3 327 33.12 3.3 151 US UL , 29.00 24.1 2t.23 22.06 23.13 24. as." 2.05 0.5 3.09 3n 29.40 29.19 20. 28.e 20. " 39 . 2946 2.13 1 t 0l 0s nu * V ? 13.1 ml mas Cm _enma. im w ...... ff4 15 1990 191192 1993 1994 1995 19oo 199 192 2199100 0233 04 260 306 37 #0 309201 "aS _AIMutm - VW to 161 DOllS lt?2153 3 .iIwlmlt of Easel et toest 1ds "E= 2.35 2.22 L? LI. 2.56 2.19 3.6 3.32 3.61 3.92 L.0 4. 4.4 '4 4.65 S.ll . 5.4 5.9 43 4 nWh 11.42 10.6s 10.37 11.23 U.2 .3 142 15.90 17.31 82 19.61 204 21.3s 22.31 5.4 254 . 27.27 25.L9 30.40 t1o O63, UiED 30.07 23.19 W18 6.9 1.22 13.5 to1. 7.70 4.17 4.00 0.a0 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.c0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 1I" a, "L"MS .34 5.80 T.97 11.32 5.23 ".73 116 30.30 37.57 45.12 5.99 44.7 41.9S 4.5 49.97 51.8 5S31 5564 57.74 59.92 7 EE/Ul3 29.37 25.93 24.11 25.n 27.70 29.92 32.3 35.02 .94 41.01 41.99 43.00 4.19 45.43 46.2 4L47 50.2 52.44 54S 56.94 16 AM SL 43.78 41.77 41.08 55.05 4.32 47.1?7 10.6 49 54.54 57.43 60.54 63.94 6.82 68.93 6J8 152 8.0360.70 ". W.43 149 main ESEl 11.01 9.92 9.42 10.26 S10 11. 12.10 13.6 14. 15.6 5 16.05 1 ". 4 151 7 1.96 18.56 19.19 1AK9.6 170 NEW nu OIL 82.35 73.36 6846 66.44 72 81.15 W." 81.5 83.35 7S.22 76.71 .98 -65.56 6.2 10.5 9.56 61.16 S.1 69." 72. e 171 *196 2." 2.8t 2.78 3.01 S3. 3.56 3." 4.2 4.6 5.13 5.40 S 6.00 6. 6.4 7.10 7.5 8.0 5.5 9.12 17 .......................................................... . ....... .. .. . ..... ,,,,.,,,,_,,,, 173 total 216. M. t64. 4M202.S9 209.5 22. 110.9 242.26 Z.77 262.26 270.16 264.22 266 21.46 2nL3 2a9.40 31 831642 30.2 34. 174* 115 17 INPUT 11158 us- rlog Inch~ 175ie Par= 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 .00 0.00 0.00 179 WIII 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10 30.01 0.00 0.O0 0.00 6.82 6.10 49.6 69.90 71.05 73.50 71.55 72.33 6.57 67.29 51.76 . 61.73 2.2 S9.75 60.12 18t 110/033 9.26 0.00 0.00 6.97 14.94 9.5 9.25 10.9 9. 9.33 7.95 6.61 5.2 4.£5 0.00 1.12 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 l1821M DIESL 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.2 3.49 14 17.02 17.13 14.54 0.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0D0 0.00 0.0 18main DISEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .OD 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 18 lAW Nu OIL t -C" 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.6 3.10 15.76 2.77 9.4 13.9 14.06 1 7 6.06 0.00 1 M St OtL a -ca II slo.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 0OS 0.00 0.0) 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 1........ ................. . .............. . .. . 187 39.7 0.00 0.00 6.97 9.97 80.96 2.7 93.12 9.93 106.79 7.1 5.568.597 SL .4 78.23 74.36 69.0 0.86 60.72 1 00W 91 01:23 90 FtIE * FtluF 2.3.1 MU 9061. 85UCE8 NI,WMFSI. M t06K 2 JAIWC I 11? ISEC1KM ST2MEST AM IUNEU_ PKAUWSB UDT S PIfLUU SEtTOR n UICMAM LIALmlS - CI it I CAT ctiiUs 189 8UWITUAlMIIA REVEN US USS - *reign tEJbagwe no ................... 191 PRDPANE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 192 WUTSf 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 193 MM5 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 194 KEIR0/Me1 0.00o 0.00 0.00 o.ao 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 195 AUTO DlESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 L.OU 0.00 0.00 0.00 196 MisUt DIESEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 197 1AV FUEL OIL I 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 198 154W? FUEL OIL 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 O. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 t99 -----------.-.................................................................. -. . ........................ 200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 201 -- -- ---.- 202 TOTAL REVENUES US$0 255.93 195.64 184.94 209.36 29.82 303.68 322.76 m5.38 355.69 369.05 367.29 359.78 361.21 362.23 354.03 367.6S 37.25 3U6.L2 91S.48 405.54 203 204 %J 206 1990 t9S1 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 199? 1996 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 209 2010 297-* * ------- ---*-- .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ....... . .... . .... . ... . . .... . .... . .... . .... . .... . .... . .... 208 EFI9IG COSltS * US"1 209 210 211 CRUDE 212 ------- 213 0Cf24 117.98 0.00 0.00 100.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 214 CFI7 0.00 31.27 36.12 0.00 72.37 80.68 80.76 76.5 72.19 n1.72 74.94 86.8 83.10 80.29 119.21 72.92 73.18 68.23 74.20 65.4 215 ISTIS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 85.28 13I1 138.5 172.73 199.4 20.39 28.77 176.65 136.6 1.2 ".62 206.29 206.29 213.68 206.29 218. 216 NAVA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 21a FORCAO 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 218 IElltE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 oru 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 219-- 220 TOtAL WOLE CO= IMPORTS 117.98 311.27 36.12 100.02 19.50 212.80 223.59 249.32 271.64 235.11 23.70 M.12 29.78 m2.4 214. 2.21 29.47 2M.9 M0.5 221 I MM0101823 Fs FILl a lI*1 2.3.1 MI mMIi. M UnE NIM CIle 7 11 2 SICA P1e3 M110 "Ulm I ui_mt 181110 S1W11 3 P110018 II UIUUWJ 8 SS ON IIt * CAT 1C1iUn za .wo$ an2 .....-.. 2 SUMIA 1.81 1.0 1.02 1.47 0.9 1.03 1.05 0.92 0 .82 0.06 0.5 1.1" . 0.95 1.79 OJ5 O.M L.6 .6 0.77 22 iWf 53.8 3237 29.45 16.08 21.16 17.33 1r.u 7.48 0.00 0.OO 0.00 13.46 .9 6O. 20. 0.100 0.0 0.00 0.L0 227 1130 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0O. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 2281o1 . 35.95 54.90 54.07 S0.9 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.O VA4 0.00 '3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 zap ......................... .............................................. ..... . ........ 230 t1 rim 1115 91 .35 14.55 .46.52 214 1.S a.31 L40 O.6 0.66 0.00 14.43 9." 7.43 55 0.0 .5o 0.7 0.6 0.7V 231 2n2Pon= 3 233 ...... . 24 9IE3 O.97 .4 1.517 1.4 0.20 0.2 0.36 O.4 0.54 0.72 O."6 1.1 1.33 1 2S 3 1.6A 2." 2.U 2.4 2.81 Z3S MIUI 3.65 5.5T 6.41 4.96 6.6 7.30 6.25 10.01 11. 12.9? 13.74 13.2 14.79 15.5 1.9 1.6 ".46 21.01 22.19 23.3 235 MIS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27 1100/DO 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.42 2.01 4.42 5.22 235 AIU0 311 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0L 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .3 7.30 * 239 m1ii OhUtL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.21 1.S 6.47 6.40 10.41 3.05 240 UAW nEL OIL 1.61 3S.O 32.22 8.31 5.11 S.51 L.S 281 3.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 241 .......-.. . .. ........... . .............................. 242 tom CS oF 9IIwns. 222. 44.9 40.2 14.75 11.95 13.2 1T.17 13J.2 15.25 134 14.4 4.0 11 16 21S 2.6 3S 40.01 4M0 243 244 FIMJ5tA1E 1 3l 1CO * 13." 14.17 5.4 194 1.34 1. 19.31 1.35 1. 195 1934 19.3 134 13 . 19. 1.s Om3 "9i I 00/091 OlsiS P Flu a fl35 2.3.1 GM MUII, iUCEw OmWuIC, M vrNe 2 JIuC I II KC= MU AI 1=8mn111 nslI gmu 3 FEIOLM UCTS FIWACIAL A3AU703 - CANS - CAT CAIllINS 24 199t 99 1 1994 1996 1997 1996 1999 200 2001 2102 2003 2004 2086 2006 207 28 2009 M tO1 247 AAL CIATIO .... ... .... .... .. ... . .... ,, , , , .... . ... . .. .... 246 249 Exsttlm Copita1 0.97 6.97 0.97 0.97 0.9 0.97 0.97 .97 0.97 0.9r 0.9 0.97 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 250 PoJectt Captal we 1S 0.20 1.53 5.62 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.70 0.0 8.70 8.70 8.T7 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.50 7.17 3.0 0.00 0.00 252 TOtAL UWS!CIAIiS 1.1t 2.49 6.58 9.67 9.67 9.6t 9.67 9.67 a 9.6t 9.t 8.3 8.70.70 70 .o 0.so 7.17 3.05 0.00 0.00 253 254 CAPITAL IUWTIM T - NCT 3.00 19.92 61.33 46.2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 255 SAWIUTEAUCE COSTS 2. 2.50 2.30 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 3.30 3.30 3J0 330 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.3 3.3 3.30 3.30 256 ................,,................,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,_____,,,,,,,,,,_,,,,,,,,__.............. _....,,,,__ 257 5.50 22.42 643.8 48.75 2.50 2.30 2.50 2.50 2.50 3.30 3. 30 3.30 3.30 3 .0 3 330 3.30 3 53 5.30 3 .30 0 258 ftlUACIUS STlUCUMI 259 -191 1 1993 1994 19 1996 19w9 1996 1999 20 2001 20 200 2 2 26zo 200 2 09 M0 260 261 ProeIct i#VVt$t 3.00 9.92 61.33 46.25 0.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6 Z2 Local Capanet 17.08 0.51 3.39 10.43 7.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 co 3 2a ore9in Coqonnt 85.0X 2.49 16.53 S0.90 38.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 265 Locl _*U 266.*- 267 Local EqwItV fiewced 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 268 L loal Cub F§4ncd 100.08 0.31 3.39 10.43 7r.6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 269 Local Lout flnomed 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 270 Local Lola iustoWni 0.*0 0.00 0.O0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21 n t epapstow fe Ws 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 m interest I of 0s loo 12.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.30 0.00 274 foreI-n Component 276 Foreign UqaIty FinmomM10.0% 2.49 16.53 50.90 38.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 277 freign Loo flV d O, 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 m fforein Lon Outst.nd 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 279 Loan 3pmmt ever pt 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 211 Iotet * I of 0/$ tl 12.08 6.00. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 U04fl Hh5 * a Ff111 1.3.1 m miniu Elves uimu i a mmai sowv Ismw tm=u am iinsuuw "uAMu sum 3 pgno= hf m1lll6 u.Ma MS - O NI * rAt eCRUM us EM miMs us4 O4 Capital iawesA 15.86 18.86 38.78 10.11 146.36 146.6 146J6 14j6.316.646314. 4.6 14j6MM" 6.36 16.6 14316.3614 6.3U6 6 14.646.36 14fiW 6.36J - Touta Capital I 'Ml!si 1U." 38.78 1 1 146.3 S 146.3 14.3 14.6 14.146.36 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 16.36 6.36SJ 146.M 46J6 46.36 146.36 6 lSwlaIh Sralie 18S 3690 94.53 13.3 11.3 106 1".74 WA.17 7.55 9.8 62.8 56.3 8.88 45.79 41.7 37.0t 33130.94 27.04 2.34 23 1 AUmis, last0.= 1.9 3.69 9.45 1.3 11.82 10.64 9.57 8.2 7.76 6.98 6J8 545 5.09 4.3 4.12 3.1 334 3.00 2.0 2.43 290 _ 262 forI hitr 15.82 29% ate.a * ~2% AOVUTLT oxin In In " o o In In lo o a io OZ" o 10 o o n I 0810 01Olin O FILE a rum 2.3.1 gm R,U. iniin DPUIIE. M 7431 M I_ nP F h CtSE L - aiwi-C uI -wMaU ste S 3" PftUI3OL Sefts I M 1 /IAI3IIX * SII*CAtAC 293 n 9U1S.339011 1038 IS STATUSI 300 1991 "9a 193s 1094 19 1 96 1999 30 am 2 20 no M24 am 2007 62 an 10 s@l *-- ~~~~~.... .... .... .... .... .... .... . . . .... .... ... .... .... .... . - ---- ---- --- S02 toes ew 255.9 M.64 18.94 9.36 8.82 3A5 32.76 33.3 35.6A9 3S6 W.9 39.78 361.M 3. 34.03 36.5 37.50 33L.2 3.440-.4 303 cat of 5t.. 1.W 2.71n M. 18. 23A.61 24.1 160.W 2.9 W8.74 Z.66 299 294.5 M1 2935 2. 2301 9303943 WS5 3. 3n. W4s .....................................-.............-....-..................--......... ....................- 3 grow owubn 24.05 22." 2A.07 2. r.20 59.50 62JO 6 67.95 69.3 48.05 65.1 65.41 65.5 64.0 6.O4 4W1 7.7 5.e03 7V.31 306 Otbr GMtIu* lt .65 8GAS 0. GAS 6. 4S s * . 6 8.5 * .S 5 8 . 6S 8J 8.6 .S -64 6S 6 6.S 8LO 64 307 Opeuiw iapuMo 15.2 13.99 14.17 15.44 1.34 19.34 9.34 1.34 1935 19.35 19.S 19.34 19.34 19.34 193 95 19.35 19.:5 t9.X3 195 30so 1W1 bMnma. 1*mw 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 20 2.50 2.50 2.50 3 .30 0 3.30 3*30 ' 3.30 3.30 330 3.30 3 33 3.30 s9o .............. -.......-.---..----- 310 ta_ From opeaFretn 14.94 15.0 16.OS 16.78 44.01 46.31 49.50 S1.21 S.76 5539 54.06 51.26 S1.4 51.69 50.61 32.L 54.32 57.78 61.0 64.3 311 31U Intest Is 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4. 32 45 .2 4.52 4.52 4.52 455 2 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.5 2 4.5 2 4.52 4.2u 452 4.52 313 Interest bpnste 0.13 0.13 043 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.10 0.13 0.1 3 0.1 3 0.1 3 0.13 0.13 O.U 0.13 0.1 01 0.13 _314. U............................... ...........................................-. ... 8 315 3mpreqFq tlm isa. 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 49 4.39 4CY9 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.39 4.99 4.39 43 4.39 43 4.39 4.39 4.39 516 .... ............................................................................................. . ....................50......SS...S9...9. . ..sS.a SS.B....XBJ0 S.4 L7) 6 .B 6 .B ¢ 317 ProIt Before Taxes 19.33 19.47 2.44 21.17 48.40 50.70 53.69 5.60 59.1 9.7 56.4 55.43 55.61 56.26 5539 56.44 58.71 62.17 65.43 68.7 316 319 Less lawot* All, 3. 0.00 3." 12.27 93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 310 e1 *Auu All 1.89 3.69 9.5 1.13 11.3 2 10.6 9.5r 62 7.76 6.96 6.8 5.65 5.09 4.58 4.12 3.7 3.3 3.00 2.T0 2.43 m2 T eXI I101 16." 1140 -1.28 -t.21 NAG8 40.0S 4".32 "All S1.39 52.9t 52.tT 49.9 So.n2 S1.0 5t.09 52.n ISM 59.t6 LZn ".V 323 324 lis. Tooms 33.333 5.61 3.93 -0.43 -0.40 12.19 1.3 14.77 15." 17. 17.40 17.39 1646 16.91 17.23 17.5 17.56 16.46 19.12 20.91 22.0 Sn ................................................................................................................. 326 oat Prolit 13.72 15.54 20.J 21.57 36.21 3r.35 39.12 39.94 42.02 42.18 41.06 s3897 38.90 39.05 D.18 DDa6 40.2 42.45 44.52 4.462 3W 32B DtIvU S as I of not p 00.0S 0.00 12.43 16.69 17.26 28.97 29.85 31.30 31.95 33.61 33J5 32.5 31.16 31.12 31.24 30.54 31.W932.20 S.96 35A2 3Y.29 319 PUwit to *tAt _M 3O.03 U.12 3.11 4.17 4.3I 7.24 7.47 ?.62 T.99 8.40 8.44 8.21 7.79 7.78 .81 7.64 T.7 8.0 s649 690 9.3 33 3" PIE or Or wa UAW61.31 1 L*u 173.1 32 ml _n391 128 1 OY8041 01:23m FILE a FlU1D 2.3.1 0UN3 bIN, MSUS SIW IP E. 75 OUSE meas SVSCS 1041 m UIVSumuT ruuu:am g 3 PTNROW SECTIO FIRUICIIL ALMSES * US 11 - CAT CRU1M108 334 335 336 ULMWIC SlET 338 1990 199 1992 1995 1994 199 1996 199 19Os 199 200 200 20m 2003 20 201 200 2gm 200 no0 MO1 339 .............. .... .... .... .... .... ... . ...... 346 ASSET 341."' 342 arm*~ emsts 343 Cash In So* 19.21 .0.80 9.25 10.51 12.50 19.59 33.20 S024 46.15 82.40 99.12 117.28 134.8 151.20 1A.65 154.99 19.99 214.39225.06 233.20 241.5? 344 Rss.IvlMs &p 30 13.26 21.04 16.06 5.2 17 .21 23.62 24.96 I653 27.57 2.24 30.33 30.19 29.57 2.69 29.77 29.10 30.22 31.01 31.7 32.59 33.33 345 Iiwsntarles 11.54 346 *Cruds/Ipkes dys 20 11.49 7.05 6.61 9.23 12.09 12.4 13.31 14.12 14.93 15.6? 15.59 15.3 15.33 15.29 14.03 15.34 J 15.36149 15.42 15.6 347 Prmhmt *9 20 14.02 10.72 10.13 11.47 15.88 16.64 17.69 18.38 19.49 20.22 20.13 19.71 19.7 19.6 19.40 20.1 20.6 21.u6 213s 22.2n 349 Total Currait Assets 49.01 4S.74 43.10 42.45 50.41 71.33 S9.46108.2 126.01 146.26 145.34 163.19 199.43 216.01 232L56 248.3 24.60 281.43 29345 302.95 312.7 350 -A 351 fix"6 Aaa.te/tant In Service 352 aros 15.86 1M.8 37 100.111.36 14.36 14.36 14.36 14.36 16.36 14.36 14.36 1.36 146.36 16.36 16.36 14.3 146.36 1.36 116.36 19. 353 toss Ams Deprec 5.10 6.2? 8.76 15.34 25.01 34.06 44.3 54.01 63A8 73.34 63.01 92.66 101.51 110.21 116.91 127.61 136.11, 14.28 146.6 146.36 1146.36 35 Mt Assets lot Sice 10.76 1O.S030.02 84.77 1 s1.35 111.46 02.02 9235 82.46 73.02 63.35 5348 4.15 31 2.4S 1.6 1W. 3.0 40.00 0.00 0.00 3S7 tiwAstumn In hs.tdia11.07 11.07 1t.O 11.0? 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.07S 11.07 11.07 11.0 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.07 11.0? VA ..... ........ ................................................................................................. ..................................................................................................... _ 3S9 Total Assets 70.55 69.41 84.19 138.29 1824 194.13 202.55 211.68 220.57 230.3S 39.76 247.94 255.35 263.23 27.09 2.14 2.93 29.58 304.52 314.00 3n.60 I uuiosin oia o FILE a nINsU I.s.s WARn .u.mui uumi.msu m ur. 2 JWgA Unow s_tvmsv wrnU "M gl 111 Um m11 3 OflU $KillM MIEIK mEhIS *1ChI - CAt CMC 31t LtMIUITES 362 30 PaI.s *p. 30 36.7M 1.0 14.2 13.22 t5.0 19.12 W. 21.3 22.2 4 1 24.5 1.21 213 24.36 V 24.19 5.39586 2.42 21.3 314 Interest an cOet 0. 0 0.22.22 0 .20.2.20.2222 0.0.22.2 0 6.0.22.22 0.22 0.22 0M 0.22 0.22 so ............................. . . ,, ....,........................ ., ..... . _ ...... _.v 36 36.92 19.28 U.42 3."4 15.29 9.34 .29 21 22.49 2. 2 2.2 24.4 2A.53 2 8.0t 4.5 2. n1 5.6 26.011S 2 26 7 . 367 346 Low Tomn Debt 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.81 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 .1 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51Ij 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 349 370 Vid to Capltal 371 G0US 534 346 346 34 34A6 3.4 346 346 346 346 3." 3.6 S." 3.4 3 34 36 3J6 L6 3" 34= 372 A.og - .Fars InISOM 0.00 2.49 19.02 10.93 10.31 1063 1OL3 108.31 1051 106.31 105.31 100.31 108.31 1.31 106.M 106.31 0L631 10031 1.3 1 1 10L31 37 tLoat Parnelr 0 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .00 0.00 O.0 0.00 0.0 00 0.00 0.00 Su ................................................................................ .............. .......*............ ........... ......................................................................... _ ... -. -. -*--. - 315 Total 3." 6.15 2248 73.56 111.17 111.97 111.97 111.97 11.9 111.9? l1t.97 111.9? 111.97 111.97 111.9 111.7 111.97 111.97 111.97 111.97 111.9r 376 W DetaIned Eanm 2M1S 42.47 45.58 49.15 S4.06 61.31 6.77 716.60 86.59 9299 101.3 19.6" 117.43 125.2 13.02 140.6 148.43 15646 U4.97 11 .88 1-2. t 58 ------**----^-*-*---*-.-.----*................................... *....................................................... ............................................_...... 3t79 itrt l tbttities 0.as 49.41 .19 16.t t 1t # .64 164.13 U02.SS 211.65 2zo.s5 5.35 59.76 247.94 5SS.5 263.23 7.O9 27V8.14 6.93 2556B 364.52 314.00 35.60 300 331 #la RIOClMT/LDTO ) 5.01 3.41 3.21 3.0S 2.73 2.41 2.= 1.91 1.3 1.41 1.51 141 1.3 1.21 1.11 1L1a l.O5 1.58 0.91 0.9X 0.La 3d2 *4e. ~ 3. t OI4" 01:23 P FILE a FINEF 2.3.1 SASE 15A813, aMUCE tAMOaeCs. M funi 2 JuctC I pip I sum sa siD tfwuSnm uu1 Suwi I PITROW n1 AIALIMALMO - CS II - CAT CAUI sol w _- 380 389 $ w nU 1 192 1993 1994 19M 996 199 198 199 0 2001 202 3 2 3 2M 3 2 306 2 0 MY 8200 9 10 sos .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... ... .... .... .... .... . .. . . 39 get fgou s Opeetiu 13.12 5.54 20.87 2M.S 36.21 37.35 39.12 39.94 U2.02 41.18 41.06 38.97 3890 39.05 38.18 38.36 40.2 42.45 44.52 6.4d. 392 Dqarcltlon 1.17 2.49 6.58 9.67 9.6 9.67 9.67 9.67 9.67 9.67 9.67 8.83 8.70 8.70 8.70 8.50 7.17 3.08 0.00 0.00 393 Loum 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 394 gqalty 2.49 16.53 50.90 38.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 395 SALAICIO ITE4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.Q0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 * 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.-.*.*---W ............................................................................................................... ............. . .--------------- _..------------ 397 tot.l Sources 17.37 34.5T 78235 69.63 45.88 47.01 48.79 49.61 51.68 51.85 so.73 47.60 47.40 47.7S 46. J.6 47.42 43.53 44S2 46.62 398 399 APPLICATIO OF fUYD 400 401 toreesa 1n UWrking Capitat 14.3T 2.22 0.33 6.12 16.91 17.14 1T.49 1t.6s 18.07 18.10 17.8 16S2 16.48 16.S 16.36 16.7 1S.22 11.57 8.90 9.32 402 Copitat InweatmstVCOmStruct 3.00 19.92 6I1. 46.ZS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 .OA 0.00 405 Principal 3teposput yr 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 404 Interest Repapent (part of opael In 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 00 0.00 405 Slvidwid PFyonmt - S Trea_ 0.00 3.11 4.17 4.31 7.24 7.47 7.82 r.99 8.40 8.44 8.21 7.79 7.78 7.81 744 7.77 8.05 8.49 8.90 9.32 406 Dividuid Peymnt - Fereign PD 0.80 9.32 12.S2 12.94 21.73 22.41 23.47 23.96 25.21 25.31 24.64 23.35 23.34 23.43 22.91 23.32 24.1S 25.47 26.71 27.97 407 0fIdwn PsVmwAt - Loat Pewt 0.8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 409 total Apftications 17.87 34.57 78.35 695s 4S.68 4.01 48.79 49.61 S1.68 S1.S s5.73 47.80 4760 4u.75 46.88 46?36 47.42 4S.53 4432 44,42 410 WI11 Mi`l 6L)0 5L001 33A6 06536 316 WM SIOD SS#S 5*W U r l' KIlu slp2L 1t70 5s 59 W woS 6w wtCUI-Un WM0. 4t ............ . .......... ... ~..,--.......................................................... Uon ........... . .......................... . < ................................................................ Mts 00-0 00 0 Ws W's 0we 0e0 so' 0Cl ore 0ire ire Or ore oo.o woe Cole e o e o-o solo oo o t oo owe wo we oo or woe0 oo reo ore 0oo o olo ore eoe eo-o ooe o eo lo ore o 00-0 sol oIi WM ANNX 9L sol Orl solo we ore ore oe 00o0 Osl olo 00-0 00-0 or@ o 00 0 Cr0 010 00 0 ore0 Ruo- ODOw at0 Meo oo soo 00e0 orl 0 iso a. o oe or olo ore oreo or. ire em 000eo ole ore o0e ore so o 3o316 am UV 00-0 00 0 00-0 0.0 00 eo i0o oe o orQO- e o-oreo -o o0e ooe ole Co0o ole ooe 00o0 eoo we oMUD *tt o-o oro orao-o o oo ol oOo or@ soeo ao- oo. o0e Wr ol Q O 00e o oo o oo oroo oC ewe ownuu omm ott ogle oro oC0o 000 sae sale oeo oWV osl ore ore o- eo oD' r0 oV Os0o solo o0 00o0 or. GM I1U 699 or0 Cr0 wee Cr0 are wo or@ 00 0 Cr0 sOl olo0 00.0 0C0 sol Cr0 00'0 000 050 00 w 0 0 '0 09" Oro wor woe wo we wor Oro wre wor wor we' woe c' we are so' os Coro soC wre IWdAS It" $150"o seuum wn m Wrat M'UO 6L'0t1 5OOs WA6S 01 9S't6 t6 SI'f CL 53 WU1 311* 1U 0 W 50 WO 5 rBiS 19 £15 9WsW M oro o o eo oo 0o0 So ore oe o 00o 0 oo 0 eo 00's wo oo o0 00'oo o oso o0 Q0- 00'0 Oslo Oro 0 o £1309 0on 00o0 ooG oe ao-0 olo 0olo eo-0 00-o oo ooo o oo o ooo0o oG000 0 0 0 00o 0 ooro o o o lie 13ij A1N33 45 oo 0 oro cr0 ire Or o oo o oo o o oo c o o o00 0 00o0 0o o o 00o 0 Colo ogle o 0o 113d 1311on eo ocro ore o or o ooe wr0 C Oro0 oo o oooooo oo C o 0o o0o ooo0 o o oe 00o0 o-o0 00o0 00-0 133310 0 *m 9 0-SS e OBZ S90 0f 13, U W1 Are ",t %9 35-n " W9*n3" 39r9 Ulu V U3 "log 199 513 0093 Ulu IsSUIoD 9e9 11 05 " 6-f1 OIN V.VS 6519 ciL Sr"9 09'St 9L'" £ W OEl93 WU St- "*61 U91 W01 L9'L 15 S1 UWISS 1 ' S 00Q- Oro 0o o oo o000 oo ' o oo o wo 00oo o0O 00-0 90w 3I 93-I t ro t l U'91 S-91 16'it Wu alai ow3n "no O59 ooooo000 001100 we 00110 we0-0 001 0 0010 0 W-"0 GO-O solo "la OsoOso Oso GOV o0 00-010 OslO MM t 000 ror re 0w0e 0 00.0 ir0 0115 0000 0000 00.0 00-0 WV 00,0 00'0 00-0 00'0 Cr MVIA £ .t.......... -- 0 ....... .... .... ....... .... .... .... --.- 0.-- .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... .... 83I-* JMlll_Wll d on 01 460 MM A1100Z lO O SW1 "1Of 100K UR03 SW0 0001 461, IOO A1 01 sOa 6 SW SuW i" WMn *wuuao-m suo uuuauu sw IN 33 193 . I3 no * SIUW 11WUI 01013 mEUl1I a 0011 "ImfU ilSU I SIm £ 1s 331131 ASEUSI IE a =IF1 ML 1R11'1omIIIJm 33 n1o rrf Mai u 311* 36 USPO IoIW I S# 3t1l3l I 00SOI 1 3 IFf"LE * ft 915 2 .SUE tl363 sUin O 151111 2 WIt 83? C0 ITUTS hIStUSltIlWifl FWIIIII 515 3 UETULU.'P M56 93I05MB. AWLIUS * CANE It - CA? UiIS 463 PRIVATMME57US ,ESi 463 401 mam.wasmfan m. i suz 4. 46 11 199 13 1995 "PS 19I? 1go 19 2S 28 28 20O 20 2 20 2U 2NO6 2zo M0 4a8 U.E.. .. ... ... 489 PIOPANE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.80 0.00 490 IBI 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.8 0.8 0.00 0.0 491 MOO", tU 30.O 23.19 18t.5 1u.9s S.22 U.15 16.6? 7.70 4.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.06 00 0.00 0.L 0.00 0.00 492 NOW, 13.3 3.34 5.80 7.9s 11.32 15.23 19.75 24.19 30.00 37.sr 45.12 4.n 6. 47.95 49.05 49.97 51M 53.6 SS6 S?.4 59.92 493 o53 1 29.3? 2S.95 24.11 25.73 27.7 29.92 32.3 35.02 3.94 41.01 41.99 43.00 44.19 4. 46.52 48L.4 50.32 S2.U 5146S s6.96 494 3110 SIEKL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 . 0.00 0.00 0.0 45 ffAIV 0E 3E3EL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.oD 0.00 0.00 0.00 D. 496 NAl? nEu OIL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 497 4SPwAt 0.0O 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 498 .- *.--.---..... ... ..... ... ..... ..... ........ .................. .. ...... .. ...............,_.....,,.,... ......,..... .~498 49g 62.78 S4.91 50.6 54.03 S.15 62.60 6T.9 73.52 79. 86.13 87.98 89.67 92.4 94.48 96.0 0lD.34 1t3.93 103.06 112.3g 116.68 500 co03 50. ---- 502 tportmtion 60.06 s2.93 4.61 s5.92 55.97 60.5S 65.61 71.13 77.21 83.58 S.35 07.1S 89.34 91.5 93.SO 925 100.5 I 0L .9 16.99 S 113. 503 Trflmattiry i3sL 0.6? 1.2S 1.29 1.33 1.38 1.42 1.46 1.51 1.56 1.61 I.46 1.71 1.76 1.82 1.j8 1.94 2.00 2.07 2.13 22JO 2.27 S0 ........................................................ ................................................ . ............... ............................... . - SOS 62.11 54.22 49.94 53.3 57.39 62.01 6T.12 72.69 78.82 5.23 87.06 3.91 "9.16 93.46 95.44 9P.25 302.81 106.92 11.*19 115.64 5006..................................................................................................................._ 50 NIRSL P_IIT 8EFII0 TAX 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.74 0.76 0.79 0.1 0.X 0.87 0.8 0.92 O.5 0.99 1.02 1.O5 1.09 1.12 1.16 1.20 1.24 so8 SO I TAX 33l33 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.2 0.2? 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 033 0.4 0.3 036 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.41 StO ...................................................................... ............................. ........................... ....... 511 PA3IUtL 96 tt AFT TAX 0.45 0.46 0.48 0.49 0.51 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.60 0.62 0.6 0.6 0 0.70 0.72 0.5 0.77 0.40 0.83 512 S13S PfIT EPATIATI 50.00 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0. 0.34 0J5 0.36 0.3 0.3 0.40 0.41 S14 515 UET _ls VA=U 0F 33613 _IT 12.005 4.10 516 I 06104191 014 *S mFILE a fINWEF 2.3.1 33 $MIN, U. UED .uw.rIuE. M Wtw 2 AICAk Ift 10SUM MUP MD I__VPISO nAmIN11 3 FNOtUU ErCTOl VINMAiCL XAILYS * Ca 11 - CAt waCS 519 UK OF INACA S20 _ S$2 _1"LO Cru _ Nvs l"TI ZCK CW OAlMltP O "M iimura.ainFUWSt TU 251 ml ouIuuUw w -- oa S24 1991 M99 M 14 199 196 197 198 t99 20 2001 M2 200 2001 Z0 06 2107 2=00 200 2010 525 .... .... --.- .... .... .... -.. .--- .... .... ---- ---- ---- --.' 529 S2P -v--v--------*------ 530 ftth1oj Impat sets, 39.7 0.00 0.00 6.9r 79.9? 0.9602 93x.12 w'.93 106.9 97.u ss.s6 w3s 6.1r 65.64 7G.23 n.36 69.13 658 60.7 531 532 CapIt A acmt S34 tqaIty IwIt t In Petrojam 2.49 16.53 S0.90 303 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0D 0.00 0.00 0.00 3S5 Loan- CWapt I1w-ma 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 S6 ............................................................................... ............. 5s TOTAL 41.76 16.SS S0.90 45.35 79.9? 80.96 82.3r 93.12 9T.93 t06.79 97.14 95f.6 67."5 80.77 65.6 78.25 74.36 69.70 S.36 60.12 S318 S39 AFPLICAtIONSS 541 cwrrnt Accunt 542 - 543 IstroJam Purdams of Crud A209.64 126.63 120.67 168.54 220.64 1.16 242.90 57.72 m2.46 28s.97 3.S6 279.15 29.69 29.01 270.6T260.01 2V0 2J2.6t 21.41 264.82 544 Petreoja Prsdut Purchas m 2t.23 44.09 40.20 14.75 11.98 13.02 17.LT 13.26 15.28 13.69 14.68 14.80 16.11 17.30 18.S6 21.55 26.66 31.66 40.01 42.40 545 may ntelanc En 50.01 1.25 1.2S 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.6S 1.65 1.6S 1.S 1.65 1.6S 1.65 1.65 1.6 1S 1.45 S46 %wretui EWp 20.0% 3.05 2.30 2.83 S.09 $.8T 3.67 3.8 3.67 3 .87 3 .3.8 387 3. 3.87 3.87 38? 3. 3 3.3. 3.8? 3.87 547 treting Comanie Peoiam P 60.66 52.93 48.61 51.92 55.9? 60.55 65.61 71.13 77.21 83.58 85.35 87.15 89.34 91.58 93.50 97.2t O.15 104.79 108.99 113.3 5UI Io.r comnrs PrhsAt PseAh 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 549 terest an Foeign Loan 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 550 DivfduWi 3qtri.tfIn - Fre*l 0.00 9.32 12.52 12.94 21.73 22.41 Z.47 3.96 25.21 25.31 24.64 5.38 5.34 Z.43 22.91 2.32 24.15 2S.47 26.71 2.9? 551 Dividd bptrietian - Nkt. 0.22 0.2 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.2 0.25 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.3 0.34 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.39 0.40 0.41 1 0s81011 0131 f FILE a tF_ 2.3.1 USAE, I. 1S,UE DWRICE. M FPIl 2 JMWCA BM3 SECT 1MUl lS ItWERNM PUASII USlow 3 UOWN lET F1WIAL ABIlS - CUE II * CAT CMACKS m Clpt Asmi* 555 etrm CpIltol Soo&g 2.49 16.53 0.0 38.3 0. 0.L 0 0.00 0.. 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.O 0.00 0.L0 0.00 0.00 0.00 556 PrinaIl Rpspmt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 558 WTTAL 299.75 55.78 27.22 291.12 31S.68 332.52 34.54 S37.47 395.57 414.36 415.05 410.91 414.33 417.21 411.51 428.04 4s.7 4.51 46 6.0 474.50 SS9 560; 561 ot FORMtG6 ExcMNuE -258 .39 *22m -246 -23M .2 -272 -8 -298 -308 -318 -315 -32? -336 -346 -350 -365 -381 -397 -414 562 S43 564 PRSETI VULLU UT1 P03111 EXCA CAM 12.001 .2070 SM DlINUTS 3 . OF J_tUICA TOTAL OM. 93, S2.76 E WAE * 56 grutt Uw OM amC Ws?ws Ws?W wfXt4 f=-tC l42 vrg Ulu,- wzG 4r "C 6r"1 9-t WC a-1 is- rm n nZ O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~65 or ore Ws ar we 0 ore w e o0 01, Oso Wa W ore Oso oI ore o0aoo or. Wet e ..... . ..... . ....... . .......................................... . ... . ........ - ............ in|| w we WC we weo wo ore ore we w D 0 oc e 0W0 we 0W Ws woo we we WI IW '0'0 -1nIOMl £1bfs A# ....... ...-*-- " 98S WI|£Zt W9X DPW GM' U-;'g LL`9 K'Q Wft WU; WU 9`Z a' WUX 80-4 t '"- -9V 0f-t LZ-i leS 'wa1 te ...... ...... _ ...._ .__.... _._ ..... ,,,,.--.--o----------*-------*--- ........................T...... ............................................................................................... 2 ZR6 obgO' SO WI 8WI^ WI- WI "'l lt' 8"l fL- WA8 Zri -8V' WA WV tt-; W1 COS- 1 b 11-X4 =is (X }A11Ws Wg We W0 LWO gr0 We We WS W0 glo- o,* 6Z-SOr 40 0l 9Z-O U'S W'0 Z-IO UNdM 0-018XV - 3-I MOSO JW OE MZUX2UU 99 SI Of-2g tWJ W lt. W96 W91 WA} WtSl1 SIt'll grt n WD '1 W o- t o- Wst9 WS m6"d - 301 WO s .... ., .... .... .... . . . . ... .... .... .... .... .... ... ... .... ... ... .... .... .... ,.... fa amB SW Am 9002 n" SWO 20D t0 oog cm 96" ou" IM 6" %aa"Zt Oaus ................... _ " Ws - ~~11W - 11 JM - $19a_ eIfRlit QI am= umou xU ZDmu _ZGa w Asuva mm mm nw t eINIrN x e we we 'Dl 'am vre aiet _IJa ' w - t1 w as 6 MEI= PANIt I solDiv" 01123 PU FILE a #IEF 2.3.1 UN NOUI, tI* UCE SUMWIFtCi, 13X FMtGV 2 .Mmw U N SICTI 0 131561 AID IUUTEU PLMWUS 6118 3 MIuOIflIl ICtIlS K MAtLIs - Ctt It CAT CBWlI3 596 o M3A t1 15.01Q OlUlP on u # CNIN RW 191 1992 1993 199K 1995 1996 1997' 996 1999 21100 2001 200D2 2111 2109 2005 21 200 2010 2009 2e ................................ .. ..__.. _..... _..... .... ..... .... ..... .... ,,,......,, ,,,, ,,,. ,.__ .... .... .. .. .. _.. .... ..... ... . .... .... ..... .... 404 bws - ........ 0.00 7.4 8.91 . 2312.33 11.35 10.2 9.46 9.09 6.15 7.0 6.00 5.35 4.19 4.1 3.8 3.52 3.31 S." 2." 606 vldud 3ps_tr1at1al 0.00 9.32 125a2 12.94 2.3 22.41 3.? 23.f 25.21 5.31 n 4.64 2 3.n 23.34 2343 22L91 23.32 24.15 2n.47 26L.7 27.9 6EJ ..-.---.--.........................................................---_______....... _______._ ........... .______.__.......___ 606 o.00 9.32 12.52 12.94 21.73 22.41 23.47 23.9 25.21 25.31 24.6 23.3s 23.34. 2.43 t .9 23. 24.1s 25. 26.71 27.r s0 amUe 9 0.00 7.43 1.34 24.5r 36.90 46.n S.67 66.SS 77Y64 85.39 92.67 n.6 104.22 109.01 113.20 117.00 120.S2 123M 12-.93 129.V 610 Ifpplcetim PISACI Pt 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.0 0;0 0.0 0.0. 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 611 . -....... a W 2.22 15.40 S1.43 761. 612 pty 1w_st.M 76.03 2.49 16.53 S.90 3639O 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.O 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 613 WL PV 2.49 15.I 36.23 24.40 ................................................................ . ...........................-- - --............ 614 993.6 > *t5 1IN CAILOS -2.49 -7.21 -3636 -25.4 21.13 22.41 214.7r 23.9s 22 . 24.64 23. 23.4 23.43 22.91 233 24.1S 25.47 26.71 27. -~ 616 1E) 6e61? MM= owiin 2S.3X 616 PRESE4 VALUE Of Et CAI n 91.00 12.001 53.80 61 9*A5661 M03106 OF OCf 6.2 TEARS JAMAICA ENERGY 3ECTOR STRATEGY AND INVESTMENT PLANNING STUDY VOLUME 1I PART B EVALUATION OF FUEL ETHANOL PRODUCTION CONSULTANTS' REPORT A-193 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. SUMMARY,CONCLUSIONSAND RECOMMENDAMONS. 1 Conclusions *. *.. . . . .. . ............... .. 1 Reconm ended Strategy ..... ...... . .................... . 2 11. OVERVIEW AND BACKGROUND . . ................................. 4 m. ISSUES AFFECTING FUEL ETHANOL ECONOMICS ....... .............. . 6 World Price of Ol .......................................... 6 Availablity of Cheap European Wet Ethanol ............................ 6 U.S. Gasoline Tax Relief to Blenders ................................. 7 U.S./World Requirements for Oxygenated Fuels . ......................... 7 Caribbean Basin nitiative ............................... . 8 Competidon in the Cadbbean .......... ...... . ...... 8 Petronol ................... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Petojam Edtanol ................. ....... 11 Forecast ............ ..................... 14 Cash Flow Aaysis .................... 14 Conclusion I .. .................... . 15 Condusionn 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................. 16 Condusion m .................................. .* ..... 16 Annees 3.1 Market Forecast for Fuel Ethanol Demand 4.1 PCI Jamaica Fuel Grade Eaol P iduction Economic Anlysis Model A-195 1. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 1.1 lThis report analyzes economic costs and benefits of the production of wet alcohol from Petronol at Brad Lodge and dry, fudesrade ethanol from Petrojam Ethanol at the oil refinery site in Kingston. It includes a summary of the capacity, configuration and production cost structure of each plant as well as an analysis of the major issues which affect the economics of fuel ethanol production. These issues are: (a) World Price of Oil (b) Availability of Cheap European Wet Ethanol (c) U.S. Gasoline Tax Relief to Blenders (d) U.S. and World Requirements for Oxygenated Fuels (e) Caribbean Basin Initiative 1.2 The objective of this analysis is to serve as a guide to the GOJ strategy for divestment of these ethanol facilities. The approach to the analysis was to prepare a cash flow firamework projecting 10 years of ethanol production, which Incorporated the base "most probable" assumptions as to production costs, volumes and sales prices within the context of the actual physical plant and the issues oudined above. Sensitivities to the main input cost and revenue factors were then performed to examine the range of possible outcomes. Private sector generators who may wish to purchase the wet and/or dry alcohol facilities will be faced with the same underlying economic conditions but will also consider their own particular financial circumstances in assessing the commercial opportity. Concluions 1.3 The revue side of the Caribbean edtanol dehydraton business has been stabilized by the extension to the year 2000 of U.S. duty-relief for fuel ethanol under the Caribbean Basin Initiative. This is further supported by expected strong growth In the U.S. requirement for oxygenates in gasoline as required to meet regulations under the aean Air Act. 1.4 At cut and antcipated -most probable" factor costs and prices the Petronol operation is a much higher cost supplier of CBI.qualifying wet etaol to Petrojam Ethanol than other Caribbean supplies. This high cost siuation is exacerbated by the anticipated requirement for an investment of some $4 million in treatment fcities for the waste 'stillage" from the operation. Because of Petronol's relatively bigh production cost struture, combined wih this capital investment, the price of other Canrbbean supply coultd i se several times cunT levels and sdll be competitive with Petronol wet ethanol as CBI-qualifier for Petojam Ethanoll./ ,LI Vh we el At na Peru. ad Paren EAno sere o* to de*nae de wet an d eds a 1prodwa aesn ad dou xa b* twh ssfadide sol conte as pub* setor opeatng wder 00.1. A-197 2 1I5 The cost side of the Caibba dehydradon business Is less certin since it is critcally dependent on the suply of low-cs Europe wet ethanol, sold under distress ci in order to reduce a hup surplus of winesoure alcohol genesated by EEC farm subsidy program. Th Cibbn eol busins will be killed by a lact of this supply or even a supply at prices th are as little u 10 or l2 ce per gllo highertharecAt landed costs of S7 cents per gallon. 1.6 It i not economically viable to produce fiel ethanol for blending to gasohol in Jamaica at cUrrent or andtiipatod intenWatonal oil prices. This viability would depend on oil prices more dthn doubling pres levels. 1.7 AD other factors being eua it is recognized that a secure supply of CBIqualifying wet ethanol feedstock, even at high cost, Is critical to the viability of the Jamaican dehydration operation. Unless sufficient quanities can be secured from other Caribbean sources, the retention of the Petronol opation could be justified on a standby, security basis. 1.8 Mh economic and commc aspects of the fuel ethanol business are uncerta and speciized and are made more difficult by the cridcal impact of U.S. and Eurpe Government progms. T-r specialized, dedicaed opaos in the business who may view dte combination of PCI facilida in a differn likht from that of a stricdy ownomic analysis. Such opers may hv access to cheaper, integrated suppies of fOedsock molasses or wet edhanol and have differe stagie for meeting CI valuo-added require. In addit, potentil puchse of the oil refiny are obu y to want to be enmbd by n opeadon which is outside of their mainstream busine 1.9 As pat of th GOJ pilaizaton pgam, it is ecommended that PCI quest offesn simultanesy for purcha of both the Perol and Pojam Etaol facilities. Bidde sould be giv the option of offern for both plan ivdually or together. It I quite possible tha the Perol plat woud be bought for rlocation; however, the Petojam Ehol facility could be opeatd in its presen loctn under a service agreement with the refnery opao. Care mus be taken to es that the sal and opeation of th eanod distlery at the rlny should not become prejudicil to the sale of dt 1.10 In orde tha GOJ would maximize Its revens from the salo of both edaol and petoleum refiig Wa, the timing and moaity of both dvstituros and aondant quests for prposa would hv to be coordinated dosy to eu that. () tho pre e of the Petojam Ethanol facilty on the ritnery is not a en to a poteta sal of the riny assets to an opeor not wshing to be iledw A.198 3 andlor that simuhaneously, (b) the prese PCI anol production ass8s are available for purchase as a package with the refiy, In the event that a potential buyer of the rdinery would view the ethanol busines as an attractive add-o to petrleum reining. A-199 4 I. OVERVIEW AND BACKGROUND 2.1 PCI is the owner of two ethanol operations in Jamaica: Petonol - a producer of wet ethol in connection with the Bernard Lodge sugar estate near Kingston; and PeroJam Ethao a producer of debydrated, fuel-grade ethanol from wet ethanol feedstock at the Petrojam refinery site in Kingston. In addition there is a private producer of dehydrated ethanol, Tropicana, located in Kgston. The planning for establishment of Jamaican ethanol operations had its genesis in the early 1980s and evolved in the context of several historical circumstances: (a) a strong U.S. demand for fuel-grade ethanol at relatively high prices; the strong prices to domestic producers were encouraged both by federal and state gasoline tax relief,(an effecdve price subsidy) and higher fuel prices prior to the 1986 world oil price decline. (b) the U.S. adm tion's Caribbean Basin nitiative (CBI), promulgated in 1984, which gnted Caibban-sourced fuel ethno duty-fee entry into the U.S. The intent of the legislation was to facilitate Caribbean economic deveopment by allowing duty-free access to the U.S. for ceta Caribbean-produced commodities provided there was at least 35% Carbb value-added to the commodiy. (c) the exbtonce of an enormous European wine ethanol surplus lake', encouraged by EEC farm subsidy progm. Periodic sales of parcels from this surplus are made by the Europen authodes at prices that are a *action of the famer's costs and much lower th the economk cost of producig from sugar operations. 2.2 Ibe Tropicaa Intnational pla was the fist facility established to take advantage of the above contions; it was cmmssioned in 1984 with a capacity of 20 million usg per year, designed to dehydrate 85% wet alcohol, producing 99.5% fuel grade for the U.S. market. The objective was to import cheap Europ wine alcohol and tum it into fuel grade for the U.S. market while meeting the CBI value-added requemen It appars that Tropicana has been able to meet this 35% requirement, within its own production cost structe, witout haing to purchase any Caribbean wet alcohol feedsto& PCJ decided to take advantage of the same oppotmities tbrough three separate inidatives: (a) thmugh Petrojam the creadon of Petrojam Ethanol Limited, and the construction in 1986 of a 50 million usg per year dehydaion facility at the Petrojam refinery site; the plant was commissioned in December 1986. A-200 S (b) the creadon of subsidiary Petonol Lhiited and its acquisition of the Bernard Lodge suga fatory and subsequent rehabilation of exig plant equipment and sllation (In 1986) of a fermy and distilry at the facry sie for produedon of wet alcohol. no objective was to provide firm supplies of wet alcohol to the Perojam falit, for qualificadon under the CBI local value-added ruime TIe plant capacits 15 million usg per year of wet ethal. (c) through Petrojam the creation of Peojam Belize with, among other petroleum product marketing objwedves, the goal of esublishing an additional source of CBI wet alcohol feedstock; purant to this, Petrojam in 1986 leased a closed sugar factory, and formulated plans to rebabilitae and insal a fermentery/distillery with a production capacity of 9 million usg per year of wet ethanol. Under ro-stucturing of PCI this operaion is being divested. A-201 6 m. ISSUES AFECTNG FUEL ETHANOL ECONOMICS YWodd Prigs of Oil 3.1 Dry edhaol as a 10% blend In gasoline, known as 'gasohol", has a blending value that approximates the price of finished unleaded regular gasoline. Compared with standard specification gasoline, the lower energy content of ethanol Is compensated by its much higher octane blending value. At crude oil prices prevailing since 1986, in the $20 per barrel range for reference West Texas ltrmiato, the economic cost of regular gasoline Is about $ 0.60 per usg ex USGC refineries. This is much lower than the economic resource cost of biomass-sourced dry ethanol from dedicated plants. It is esmated that the cheapest, most efftcient sources make dry ethanol for about $1. 10 per usg, while most plants are more in the $1.40 -$1.50 per usg range. Since most of the cost is that of biomass/sugar, there may be localized, landlocked situations where production from byproduct molasses at low opportunity value could result in costs lower than this, but these are generally hampered by the lack of scale in dehydraton, gasoine logistics and gasoline blending. It is concluded that oil prices in the $40 to $50 per barrel range wouldbe required tojustify unsubsidized, large-scalebiomass-produced ethanol as a gasoline blending agent or substitute. 4vabillty of CMa uoea WVet EtManol 3.2 Abundant sources of grapebaed wet ethanol have been available in Europe as a result of goverment agdcultura support programs. The alcohol 'lake" amounted to some 300 million usg of stok in mid -1990 and the 1991 projected surplus is some 100 million usg. Tbe EEC Commission for Agriclture is making new effrts to dispose of the stocks and to reduce the ongoing conversion of wine io alcobol. Conditons govening wine distlation have become more restrictive over the years in an attempt to dissuade farmers from overproduction. The incentives to reduce this subsidy distortion are enormous. It Is estaed to costthe EEC some $6.00 per usg to purchase and stoe this alcohol, whie the netb ondiWosad sales have been in the $0.25 to $0.30 per usg range. Tbis is imposing a temendous burden on EC taxpayers which the EC is attempdng to reduce under the Common Agricultural Policy. 3.3 Petrojam Etaol has benefited from this cbeap source of wet ethanol for production of fiel-grade exportu to the U.S., maxmizing the proportion in its total feedstock as limited by the need to meet CBI value-added. It submits tenders to the EEC for purchase of the alcohol in storage at the various farmers' inland locations. In addition to this purchase price it must pay a 'fobbing' cost which covers the gathering, handling, movement to port and storage in port, prparatory to loading aboard ship; to this must be added maine freight and cargo isurance for landing in Kingston. A cost structe for 1990 purchases of some 11 million usg is provided as Table 3.1. A'202 7 TAM 3.012 3UZOXPZ OM 3TBMOL COST STRtUCTUR PUTROJM 1990 PURICAS3S $/usg EC Purchase Price 0.27 wFobbingw Cost 0.19 Marine Freight & Ins l1 Total cif Kingston 0.57 U.S. Gasoline Tax Relief to Blenders 3.4 Tle U.S. Federal Goverment provides blenders of gasohol* a gasoline tax relief of 5.4 cets per gallon (CPO) of saleable product. Since gasohol contains 10% dry ethanol, this slates into a gross subsidy of 54 cents per gallon of dry ethanol. Tbis subsidy is itended to make U.S. farm-bsd producers viable at current oil prices and ethanol production costs. Foreign producers (EXCEPT CBI) are exduded from the beneas of this subsidy by a 54 cpg duty on imported fuel ethanol. Most of the gasohol blenders are inhnd in farm states and there are costs of storage, handling, transport and blending in order to get to a saleable 'rack' distributon point. here are also the profit margins of these handling nd blenitg operators. It is esmated that these total costs and prfit margins between a USOC landed ethanol and the iland blender's rack currenly amount to 19 cpg; this results in a net subsidy effect on the USOC price of ethanol of 35 cpg above the price of unleaded regular gasoline. An inland blender shoud therefore be wflling to pay a USGC supplier of ethanol $0.35 per usg higher than gasoline bulk spply price, and break even on his sales of gasohol at his rk, given his total acquisition com and tas credit. Thus, for a CBI producer the markot price of ethanol in the USGC is equal to USOC gasoline price plus 35 cpg. U.S,/Wordd mqirements fior 0Zygogd Fuels 3.S Current gasoline demand in the U.S. is some 7.2 million bpd, with a total average ethanol content of about 0.8%, represnng P80 mfllion usg per year of fuel-grade edmol. Etaol as well as odher alcohols and ethers (collectively known as 'oxygeates') have usefl properties as blending agents in gasoline in the reduction of hydrcbon and carbon monoxide exhaust emissions, while at the same time maininin high octane levels. The passage of the Clean Air Act (CAA) in November 1990, established a pmnent role for oxygena in U.S. gasoli for the foreseeable future. Based on uet ecoomic cost and blending value, the most atrctive oxyae is ethylia lther (MTBE). Based on projected en for oxygaes uander the psovisions of the Act, however, there is ascipated to be a dsrtfall in MTBE supply in te short/medium term. Based on this inability to meet A-203 8 oxygen demand fom MTBE alone, ehanol is considered as the next best alterati, especially at tax- rdief prices. 3.6 ANNEX 3.1 provides a forecast of U.S. gasoline demand as well as an estimat of required ethanol oonet in order to meet CAA standards; thi iS based on an ticipat U.S. and worldwide shortage in MBE, and a continuing tax credit to ethanol. It is also supported by the fact that the tax credit also granted on ethanol as feedstock to ethyltertiarybutylether (ETBE) production, an oxygenate which has superior blending properties to MTBE. As indicated total fuel ethanol requirement Is expected to expand from current levels 880 million usg to some 3000 million usg by the year 2001. CaKbbM k ain init 3.7 In 1989 the U.S. Congress passed the Steel Trade Liberalization Act that, inter alia, extends the duty-free staus of ethanol produced In the Caribbean and shipped to the U.S. Until the year 2000, CBI countries can ship a total maximum of the geater of 60 million usg per year or 7% of the U.S. domestic fud eanol market, providing they meet 35% value-added (% of FOB sales price) in the Cibbean. Any saes beyond this "be quanity " maximum up to 35 million usg additional would stUI gin duty-fee access providing 30% by volume of the wet alcohol feedstock originaes in the Caribbean. Ihe next 3S million usg must meet a 50 % Caribbean feedstock minimum in order to gain duty relief. 3.8 As indicaed In ANNEX 3.1, the limit of 7% of U.S. market is projected to expand from 62 milion usS in 1991 to 130 milion usg in 1995 and 208 millon usg by te year 2001. 7Tb extensio to the yea 2000 combined with projected incas allowable volumes is expected to stabilie the caribbean etao Industry. CBI producen may now make long-ter commitmens to supply ethanol for oxygenat fuel requirme under the CM. Based on cuant pojections there will be no lack of maket for CBI ethanol and the 35% value added constaint is expected to remain the govening factor for the foreseeable fiur. CgM ition in te dbbM 3.9 DIue to be sho tme *frm in which U.S. import teguation previously placed Carban produced ethanol, compedton has been slow to develop in the region. Tbe barriers to entry in this industry, however, are relavy low; and if atractve returns are achievable, Petojam should expe increed compettion. T primary constan to production in a more competitive nvirment wIll likely be the scur sourcg of low cost feedstock and, in light of the new U.S. legislation, sufficient Caribbea-pwduced wet etaol. The current production capacities of Caribbean ethanol producers are hown in Table 3.2. A-204 -~~~~~~~~~~~ TABLE 3.2: CARIBBEAN/CBI ErHANOL PRODUCERS Wet Ethanol Eroicer/Countrv Capacit IMillions USgy S Petrojam/namaica S0 Fully operational Tropicana/latnalca 20 Fully operatonal UpSCosta Rica 3 Fully operational Subtotal 105 Allie Ethaol/Ba 40 Not operational Chem Fues/ Virgin Ilands A Not operatonal Total ISS So: Peojam Limted 3.10 Total opetional producdon capacity of the CBI countries amounts to 13% curent consumptin lovds in the U.S., which could trigger the more stingent CBI-wotet requiemes dscussed above. However, in 1990, CBI odianol mportU by the U.S. amount to only 1.4% of the tot U.S. consuption. In addiion tot 1993-94 projected allowable CBI market In the U.S. wUI exced the total production Capability of existing Operational plants. A-205 10 IV. ECONOMICS OF PCI FUEL ETHANOL PRODUCTION 4.1 I addition to the general/regional issues outlined above the specific factors which affect the fina economics and viability of the PCI operations in Jamaica are the capacity, configuration and cost structure of the two plans. In order to examine the viability of the plants it was necessary also to prepare base, 'most probable* forecast (over 10 years 1992 through 2001) for the output value of dry ethanol sold into the USOC as well as for major input costs such as Caribbean molasses, Caribbean wet ethanol, and European wet alcohol. These data are structured in a cash flow framework which permits the analysis of various production configuration options for the base case as well as tlie examination of sensitivities of the results to difforent assumptions from the base. 4.2 Table 4.1 contains a summary of the production cost structure estimated for Petronol as well as capacity, feedstock defmition and capital elements such as estimated breakup sale value as a re- uable plant and esmated fute capital requirements for adequate waste treatment. Although, in principle, all the Petronol coms qualify as CBI value-added, in practice Petrojam has indicated that it would be untikely that the U.S. Customs would accept total wet ethanol feedstock costs in excess of tpical recen Caribbean-sourced cost of $1.25 per usg. his has been used as a maximum allowable CBI- qu.ifylpg figure in these calculations. 4.3 As indicated, Petronol's rated capacity is 15 million usg per year, but it bas never approached anything close to thbis in actual operations. The 1990 production amounted to 1.1 million usg, ony 7% of plant capacity. 4.4 It was assumed that the Berd Lodge sugar operation would be shut down and the Petronol fermentery/distiery would have to obtain its own extemal supplies of feedstock, enr and other factor Inputs. The feedtock is assmed to be Caribbean-soureed molasses. One tonne of 50% sugars molasses is required to produce 79 usg of wet ehanol. The cost is assumed to be $80.00 per tomne at the plant. This reflects recent imported molasses prices, after correction for sugar content, and Is slightly lower on an adjusted sugar content basis than the spot price of tank truck lots recenty traded in the USOC (New Orleans). The Caribbean is a net exporter of molasses, and the USGC a net importer. It is reasonable, therefore, to expect a lower opportunity value for molasses in the Caribbean than the New Orleam spot price. The energy costs were taken from recent 1990 Petronol operating accounts but are consistet with the cost of heavy fuel oil at $20.00 per barl based on a typical coefficient of energy A-206 11 use in such a plat All the other costs are based on adjusted operating costs and are in line with the cost strucres of simUar plants elsewhere. J/ 4.S Two capital elements have been identified in connecon with the Petronol facility: (a) Breaup sale value - based on the. prospet for disassembly, coding of components, trasport to a new site and re-assembly for operation, the faciity should sell (net of the costs of the foregoing) at some $3.0 million; this is based on a value before deducting these costs, equivalen to depreciated replacement value. (b) Waste tretment invesment - at full capacity operadon it is estimated that the biological oxygen demand of the effluent stillage" is equivalent to the waste from a city of 300 thousand inhabitants. There is no waste treatment facility at the moment; the capital cost of an appropriate plant is estimated at roughly $4 million. PetrolAM Etanol 4.6 Table 4.2 contain a summary of the capacity, yield and cost structure for the Petrojam dy ethanol facility. A maximum capacity of 40 million usg per year has been assumed since the smaller, 10 million usg/yr plant is nearing the end of its serviceable life. The yield of dry ethanol from wet is aumed to be 95.1%. 4.7 Not all the actal cash costs, such as administration and selling expenses qualify as CMJ value-added. On the other hand, there are some non-cash itenal transfer costs, such as the leasing costs for land and equipmen paid by Petojam Ethanol to Petrojam Limited which can be included in value- added. a' I~. my t, auai .d non hew reouc 'w.e duenu¢bydS dq& opprlby coe or WwwadwW iw*e Onet,_) or p r gexerel. for sob 1 Jfl A-207 12 2bal 4.1 PUTRONOL JAM&IC& LIMITeD cm05 or PRODUCTION Or WEm ETIRNOL bases, assumptionst Deri-td from jan -dec 1990 accounts with modifications: - Feedstock cost adjusted to reflect cost of molasses $80.00 Per tonne for 50% sugars - Total water & steam cost consistent wlth estimated $.S8/usg Required for hfo alono at current prices Fixed US$,thous/yr Labour & adnin 150 Maintenance 32 Other 18 Total Fixed 200 Variable U8$/usg Feedatock Molasses 1 01 Materials# Chemicals 0.08 Water & Steam 0.23 Electricity 0.01 Maintenance 0.03 Product handling 0.02 other O 01 Total Variable 1.39 A-208 13 2AKZ 40.2: PTROJAN XERANOL LINMITD PRODUCXION COSTS, EIC$NDmlo FEED8$0CR 8A8ES, ASSUMPTIONSt DERIVED FROM APR/90 -7FB/91 ACCOUNTS WITH AN ADD-ON OF $100 THOUSAND/YR TO MAINTENANCE FOR SUSTAINING OF PLANT. FIXED US$thou/YR 1 C81 CASH LADOUR 316 MAINTENANCE SO OTHER 50 TOTAL CBI CASH 516 2 NON-CDI CASH ADMINISTRATION SELLING 200 OTHER 30 TOTAL NON-CBI CASH 230 TOTAL FIInD CASH 746 3 CBl NON-CASH RENTAL OF EQUIPMENT, LAND 700 TOTAL FIXED C8S 1216 VARIABM US$/uug ALL CBI MATERIALS,CHEMICALS 0.03 WATER, STEAM, ELEC 0.09 OTHER 0.01 TOTAL VARIABLE 0.13 A-209 14 4.8 PrIc of Dry Ethanol to the USOC - It is assumed that the U.S. gasoline tax relief to gasohol blendes provides an effective net subsidy to dry ethanol, over regular gasoline value in the USGC of $0.35 per usg at present will stay constant in real terms over the forecast period in relation to the base gasoline price forecast contained in the petroleum sector volume (Vol. 1I-A). The Kingston to USGC feight, at$.05 perusg in 1991 is auumedto escalate at3% p.a. in real tem to 1997 and remain constant thereafter. For any sensitivity cases of gasoline prices above the base level, it is assumed that the subsidy Is reduced the same amount as the price increase until It reaches zero; only then is it assumed that radically higher oil prices would have the effect of increasing the U.S. ethanol price. 4.9 MolsmsWm - it was assumed that the $3.O00/tonne price at the Petronol plant remains constant in real terms over the forecast period. This roughly parallels the World Bank commodity forecast for the intenational sugar price over the same period which is quite flat in real terms. 4.10 CeLbbean w ethanol price - there are seeral sources of wet ethanol for export in the Caribbean; plants in Costa Rica, Panama, El Salvador and Guatemala have all exported on a regular basis. Such epo, surplus to local uses, are generally sold as feedstock for dehydration to fuel grade for sale into the USGC. The recent (1991) price to Petrojam of Caribbean, CBI-qualifying feedstock was $-1.25 per usg. On the bassthat prices in the future will be adjusted to move the material int dehydration market, the fue prices were forecast to move in relation to projected USGC gasoline price movements over the period, starting with a base $1.25 per usg for 1991. 4.11 =o n a wet 3danl ric - The price of European wet alcohol is projected to be related to the USGC gasoline price since one of the dispositions for this surplus alcohol is as CBI-qualifying feedstock for fuel alcohol producton, with a s*ta value of $0.27 per usg for 11. Te fobbing cost, $0.19 per usg, ad marine fght $0.11 per usg are asumed to be constan in real terms over the forecast perio. Cash Flow Analvsis 4.12 Ba Cm -ANNtX 4.1 provides a copy of the spreadshet input assumptions and output reuts for the base cae analysis of PCI etaol economics. The first section documt the capacity, cost, ale8s volume and price forecast assumptions. The cash flow results are shown for tee diffent sales nd EEC upply conigurtion, each with the vartion of Caribbean wet ethanol supply from outside Jamaica or from Petrtol. Two onfigurations have been examined assuming () continued availily of EC wet alcohol or (U) no EC feedstock. Two additional varias have been considered in combination with the coiguration (a) sell off Petronol or (b) operate Petronol and add wase trem facilites. 4.13 Confia n I- Sell into the USGC under CBI, with EEC feedstock and either A-210 15 (a) Caribd supply for CBI value-added, sell off Petronol OR (b) Pearonol supply for all CBI value-added, invest in waste treament facilities. 4.14 As Indicated by the cash flow sults case (a), obtaining all Caribbean supply would be much more profitable than reining Petonol. 'he net preset value of I(a) is $21 million verus $10 million for I(b). Sensitivities of the eoonomics of this configuration to changes in input prices were calculated: 4.15 SeItivity to Caribbean wet ethanol price - the price of this input would have to Increase to 6.5 times the base forecast values before the NPV of case I (a) would drop to the $14 million lewvd of cas I (b). Even if the capital effec are excluded from the comparison of I(a) and (b), i.e. ca 1(a) is not credited with the reveue from the breakup sale of Petronol, and case I(b) is not charged with the waste treatment investment, the Caribbean wet ethanol price would have to increase to 1.7 times the base values In order to equize NPV with the Petonol case I(b). CXnia. 4.16 It is recognized ta there are secy of supply considerations which must be considered in the economic comparison between a captive, local supply of CBI-qualifying feodstock and an eteral Caribbe surce. In other words, wih the preset high economic nctves to dehydrate ethanol fom EEC fedstock for sale in the U.S. the aucial fhor is to quaif for the C treatment at ahmoany cost of CBI fiedstock bu the qualfying amount is small. Poviding the CBI value-added supply ri can be eiminaed through procurem of assured supplies Caribbean regional wet ethanol under term arrangemt, it would be more profiable to supply the CBI requirement from thes sources and disoninue operatone of Peorool. Considering the high cost of running Petronol, includig the anticipatd was teatment ivemen, the amount of tpside price flexibility for assuring Caribbean supply is enormous. 4.17 Sednity to European wet edaol price - the NPV of case 1(a) would drop to zero, i.e. a brek-even opertion on Petojam Ethanol, with an incease in landed price of European wet ethaol to 1.2 times the bas forecast values, all other fato maintaied at base values. Assumbg constant prices of fobbing and freIght tis implies a dthe EEC purche price could rise from prest level of $0.27 per usg to about $0.40 per usg, an icrs of 50%, befor dimiatdng the positve cash flow. 4.18 - Sel into the USGC unda CBI, with no European feedstock availe. Assume only cas (a) Cariben feedstock vial becae of analyis in l. he bas cae i nay very negatve at 464 million NPV. Sensitty analysis indicates t the Caribbean wet ethanol price would have to drop by 30% from assumed bas values, beore acwhieving a zero NPV, beak-even opaion A-211 16 4.19 Ile condued availability of European wet alcohol at prices typical of 1990/91 values, combliod with the CBI ta rdief, could rsult In a highly profitable operation for an ethaol dehydrator. Alhough the rvenue side appea secure to the year 2000 under CBI, EC alcohol supply is uncetain under present atTngements. European supply must be available at reasonable prices, well below full economic blomass resource costs or the Caribbean dehydration business is dead. A serious operaor would obviously attmpt to secure supplies on term agemens at no worse than current prices plus 10% or 20% maximum. He would also operate the plant at maximum capacity, as assumed in the cash flow anaysis for 1993 and beyond. 4.20 ConfiggratinhIII - Blend all Jamaican gasoline as gasohol with 10% ethanol supplied from Petojam Ethanol. It should be noted that the scale of operations would be very low at 8.7 million usg in 1992, ieasing to 11.3 million usg in 2001. Seting gasoline import parity value as the fob sales revenue price to the USGC market for dry etbanol, the NPV in both the Caribbean and Petronol supply cae are higWy negative. The USGC price for gasoline would have to increase 2.1 times base values to acieve break-vn using Carbbe wet ethanol feedstock; widt Petronol feedstock the break-even would be achlieved with a multiplier of 2.6 times the base USGC price. This analysis was provided primarily as a confiration that biomass etaol at full econmic costs requires a world oil price roughly double pee leves bfe it becomes viable as a gasine blending agent. Qancusio nm 4.21 Based on curet or foreseeble itemrtional oil prices Petrojam Ethanol would not be viable as a pToducer of fuel edmol for blending to local gasohol. A-212 AINEX 3.l _Siii! P03 T "it Fzz.E L DMIWD, U.S. AND CORXUSPONG ALOWCES FOR IMPORTS NDER CAXR3 BASI ZN IATAIVE BASES: - FORECAST OF US GASOLINE DEZAND PER G,H. TNZJLMAN "ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ON FUEL COMPOSITION 1990 DECADE" FROM AlZO CATALYST SEMINAR, PHILADELPHIA, OCT 2,1990 - INABILITY TO MEET OXYGENATE DEMAND WITH MTBE ALONE - CONTINUANCE OF 7% ALIOWANCE FOR COX SUPPLY - CBS EXTENDS BEYOND 2000, THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. TOTAL US ETHANOL TOTAL US TOTAL CBI GASOLINE CONTENT FUEL ITOH ALLOWANCE DEMAND OF US MM GAL/YR MM GAL/YR XBD GASOLINE 1991 7200 0.80% 883 62 1992 7284 1.00% 1117 78 1993 7369 1.20% 1356 95 1994 7456 1.40% 1600 112 1995 7543 1.60% 1850 130 1996 7631 1.80% 2106 147 1997 7720 2.00% 2367 166 1998 7811 2.1S% 2574 180 1999 7902 2.30% 2786 195 2000 799S 2.40% 2941 206 2001 8o88 2.40% 2976 208 2002 8183 2.40% 3011 211 2003 8279 2.40% 3046 213 2004 8375 2.40% 3081 216 2005 8473 2.40% 3118 218 2006 8573 2.40% 3154 221 2007 8673 2.40% 3191 223 2008 8774 2.40% 3228 226 2009 8877 2.40% 3266 229 2010 8981 2.40% 3304 231 A-213 AEX 4.1 PCJ JAMCA PUEL4RAOE ETHANOL PRODUCION ECONOaMC ANALYSl MODEL ASUIEPT 315 IUS .................. PfIROL CAPACtITY MIsyr 15.0 iT ETNAISOL TROJM ETANL CAPACITY WMIeyr 40.0 DrY ETNANOL YtEIL Of ORYE ag FMWT, By VOL "5.1 PETROOL PROCTION C0SALL ClI VA MtLIPYIN UP TO LINIT OF $1.25 /iu) FIXED m 0.20 VARIASlE 5/usgl t.39. PETROJAN ETNAOL PROICTION MOT FIXED -CASN MI/Y 0.75 FIXEID -CBI QUAL MI/YE 1.22 VYIASLECALL CBI) 8/Mgl 0.13 PCTRO5IOL CAPITAL ELEMNTS MET lIAKUP SALE VALUE $3.0 NILLtON WASTE TREATM PLANT 54.0 MILLION SEiSItlVtItES VS. am 1S1C NoA 12 PRICE 1001 CARtS 11T ETON PItClE 1001 EEC T ETm PRICE 01 SALS VOLaue DR EM TO us 1001 1M 199 199 19 199 19"7 193 19" 2000 2001 PitCES 1cc low ULE 8/ 25.16 22.28 23.06 24.15 25.3 26.67 28.08 29.60 31.10 30.77 uSOC MSII CLII 8/usl 0.40 0.53 0.55 0.58 0.60 0.43 0.67 0.70 0.74 0.73 3AOL SUBIoY, RS /Sgal 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.S4 0.54 0.54 Tm,TvAN,pwFIT,w"L S gAt -0.19 *0.19 -O.19 -.19 0.19 4.19 0.19 0.19 40.19 .0.19 NET 3ASt51 EFFECT USC S/usel 035 0.X 0.35 05 03 0X 0J5 0X 0.35 0X USOC ITCo VALU /SAt 0.95 0.8 0.90 0.93 o.9 0.96 1.02 1.05 l.09 1.08 FRIGNT, KtINSON-U11C SAl 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 ETON FOB KINGSTON S/usal 0.9 0.33 0.84 0.87 0." 0.93 0.96 0.99 1.03 1.02 ETON FORt JAM WCSOHL /sual 0.45 0.56 0.53 0.61 0.63 0.66 0.70 0.73 0.77 0.76 CARItl FostC S/uat 1.11 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.16 1.20 1.24 1.2 1.27 ROPN FEETOCK 8/uul 0.54 0.52 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0.5 0.53 SALES mI 20.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 FMOTOCK me Mime 21.0 42.1 42.1 42.1 4.1 4.1 421 42.1 42.1 42.1 SAL REIN M 1 7.9 35.1 33.8 34.7 35.8 37.0 38.4 39.8 41.2 40.9 CBI VA EJWIMEOT MI 6. 11.6 11.8 12.2 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.3 35.01 PETEOJAM OP COSTS CASN No 33 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 39 5.9 5.9 CBS WJALIYIW No 3.8 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 UMiiE CBI EwiE11, weS .5J 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.5 8.0 7.9 Igt NM a thousand $ * 1991112 4n215 2 I SELL INTO USC, UNDE CB l,C FUD AVAILS (a) SUPL Cat VA EK.CAAiS1 SELL PETSaNaL ...................0............ft...... ......... QUANTITY EX-COAIS B m 2.2 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.2 MTITY EX nc mm 18.8 37.1 36.9 36.8 36.6 36.4 36.2 36.0 35.8 35.8 CASN FLOW SWNRY No SALES REVENWE 17.9 .1 33.8 34.7 35.8 37.0 38.4 39.8 41.2 40.9 PETROMOL SALE 3.0 EEC FEEOStOCK -10.2 -19.4 .19.5 -19.7 *19.8 -20.0 -20.2 -20.4 -20.6 -20.8 CARIS FEEDSTOCK -2.5 -5.2 -5.4 -5.8 *6.2 .6.6 .7.0 -7.5 -8.0 -7.9 PETROJAN CASH OP COSTS *3.3 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 NET CASH FLW 5.0 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.9 4.5 5.2 5.9 6.6 6.3 NPV a 15.XS 21.4 tb) suLY CEI VA EX PETI. .... ........................ *......... OwWTITY EX-PMltuO wuin 2.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.4 6.3 OATITY EX EEC mm 19.1 37.9 3V.7 37.5 37.2 36.8 36.5 36.0 35.6 35.7 CASE FLOlU SU4A NS SALES REVEN 1?.9 33.1 33.8 34.? 35.8 37.0 38.4 39.8 41.2 40.9 PEfOOL INESTENT -4.0 EEC FEEDSTOCK -10.3 -19.8 -19.9 -20.0 -20.1 -20.2 -20.3 -20.5 -20.S -20.7 EtRONOL PEE0STOtK -3.0 -6.0 -6.3 -6.6 -7.0 -7.5 .8.0 -8.6 -9.1 -9.0 PETROJAN CASH OP COST -3.3 -5.9 .5.9 -S.9 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 .5.9 S.9 -5.9 NET CASH FLOW -2.6 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.1 4.8 S.6 5.2 WV a 15.*0 9.9 31 SELL INTO USOC UNDER CI, 10 EC FED (a) suPPY ALL MO 1-CARtS EL PETMOL *........... lf... e.* ..... ................. CAIN FLOII 8141MEV No SALES REVENUE 17.9 33.1 33.8 34.7 3S.8 37.0 38.4 39.8 41.2 40.9 PErONOL SALE 3.0 CARIS FEEDSTOCK -23.4 -43.5 -4.4 -45.7 -47.1 -48.7 -50.3 -S2.1 -53.9 -53.5 PETROJA CASN OP COSTS -3.3 -S.9 -S.9 -S.9 -S.9 -S.9 -5.9 -S.9 -5.9 -S.9 NET CASN FLOW -5.8 -16.3 -16.6 -16.9 -17.2 -17.6 -17.9 -18.2 -18.6 -18.S wv a 1s.0o -76.6 (b) SUPPLY FED EX PETROMOL, MS CAIS …*....................… CASN FLOW SUARY SALES REVEN 17.9 33.1 33.8 34.7 35.8 37.0 38.4 39.8 41.2 40.9 PERONOL tMWSlNU -4.0 PETIONOL FEEDOCK -21.1 -21.1 -21.1 .21.1 -21.1 -21.1 -21.1 .21.1 -21.1 -21.1 CANIS FEEDSTOCK -6.7 -3.0 -28.6 .29.4 .30.3 -31.3 -32.4 -33.5 -34.7 -34.4 P UTROJAN CASN OP COSTS -3.3 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 -S.9 -5.9 -S.9 -5.9 NT CAIN FLOv -17.2 -21.9 -21.8 -21.6 -21.5 -21.3 -21.0 -20.7 -20.4 -20.S WV0 15.0K -103.5 A-216 3 III SUPL To JMWCAN GASO SLEIN ......... ..**...... ......... ............. tOtAL GASOLENE DENAIID 181L 2.07 2.13 2.19 2.26 2.33 2.40 2.47 2.54 2.62 2.70 ETANOL FOR 1001 AOO WAsg 8.69 8.95 9.21 9.49 9.78 10.07 10.37 10.68 11.00 11.33 tCAS PLOV PESA (a) ALL FEM EX CARIS SALES REVE 5.5 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.5 8.6 CARIB EonEhT -10.2 -9.7 -10.2 -10.8 -11.5 -12.2 -13.0 -13.9 -14.8 -15.1 MEROJ CASH OP COSTS .1.9 .1.9 *1.9 -2.0 *2.0 -2.0 -2.1 -2.1 *2.2 -2.2 NET CASH FLOW -6.6 -6.6 -6.8 -7.1 -7.3 -7.6 -7.9 -8.2 -8.5 -8.7 W a 1s.01 -36.4 CASH FLOW SUIARY (b) ALL FE EX PUIRONO SE REVENE 5.5 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.S 8.6 PETRONOL FlEOMST= -12.9 -13.3 -13.7 -14.1 -14.5 -14.9 -15.4 -15.8 -16.3 -16.8 PTROJAN CASH OP COSTS -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.1 -2.1 -Z.2 -2.2 NET CASN FLOW -9.3 -10.2 -10.3 -10.3 -10.3 -10.3 -10.2 -10.1 -10.0 -10.3 11V a 15.01 -50.5 A-217