Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00005610 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT IDA H7920 and TF 13093 ON A GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 82.8 MILLION (US$125 MILLION EQUIVALENT) AND AN ARTF GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$312 MILLION TO THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN FOR THE AFGHANISTAN RURAL ACCESS PROJECT September 8, 2021 Transport Global Practice South Asia Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Official Use CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective September 8, 2021) Currency Unit = Afghani (AFN) AFN 86.87 = US$1 US$1.43 = SDR 1 FISCAL YEAR December 21 – December20 Regional Vice President: Hartwig Schafer Country Director: Melinda Good Regional Director: Guangzhe Chen Practice Manager: Shomik Raj Mehndiratta Task Team Leader(s): Mohammad Ajmal Askerzoy, Abdul Hameed Khalili ICR Main Contributor: Muhammad Bilal Paracha Official Use ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AF Additional Financing ANDS Afghanistan National Development Strategy ARTF Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund ARAP Afghanistan Rural Access Project ANPDF Afghanistan National Peace and Development Framework CBI Cost per Beneficiary Index CDC Community Development Council EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan FCV Fragility, Conflict, and Violence FM Financial Management GIS Geographic Information System GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism HDM-4 Highway Development and Management Model ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report ISM Implementation Support Mission ISN Interim Strategy Note ISR Implementation Status and Results Report M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MPW Ministry of Public Works MMRD Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development MTR Midterm Review MOT Ministry of Transport NEEP National Emergency Employment Program NPV Net Present Value NRAP National Rural Access Program OHS Occupational Health and Safety PCC Plain Cement Concrete PDO Project Development Objective PIU Program Implementation Unit RMS Road Management System ToC Theory of Change TPM Third-Party Monitoring UNOPS United Nations Office for Project Services Official Use TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET ......................................................................................................................... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 5 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................5 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION ................................................................9 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 11 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ......................................................................................12 C. EFFICIENCY ...........................................................................................................................15 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING ....................................................................17 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS .........................................................................................18 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 19 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ...................................................................................19 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION .............................................................................20 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 21 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................21 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE .....................................................22 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ...........................................................................................................24 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .......................................................................................25 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 25 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 27 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 37 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 39 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 40 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 44 ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS .................................................................................. 45 ANNEX 7. PROJECT PICTURES ............................................................................................... 46 ANNEX 8. SUMMARY OF BENEFICIARY SURVEY .................................................................... 47 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P125961 Afghanistan Rural Access Project Country Financing Instrument Afghanistan Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Related Projects Relationship Project Approval Product Line Supplement P149597-Additional 13-Jun-2017 Recipient Executed Activities financing for Afghanistan Rural Access Project Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Rural Reconstruction Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and Development Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The project development objective is to enable rural communities to benefit from all-season road access to basic services and facilities. Revised PDO The PDO is to enable (a) rural communities to benefit from all-season road access to basic services and facilities and (b) an earlyemergency response in the event of an eligible crisis or emergency. Page 1 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing P125961 IDA-H7920 125,000,000 125,000,000 121,422,008 P125961 TF-13093 312,000,000 282,000,000 274,576,225 Total 437,000,000 407,000,000 395,998,233 Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Borrower/Recipient 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 Total Project Cost 437,000,000 407,000,000 395,998,233 KEY DATES Project Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing P125961 26-Jun-2012 12-Aug-2012 15-Sep-2015 31-Mar-2018 31-Dec-2020 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 04-Mar-2018 327.79 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) 06-Mar-2020 393.34 Change in Components and Cost Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Cancellation of Financing Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Implementation Schedule KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Satisfactory Substantial Page 2 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 16-Dec-2012 Satisfactory Satisfactory 5.00 02 09-Jun-2013 Satisfactory Satisfactory 10.50 03 09-Nov-2013 Satisfactory Satisfactory 19.58 04 17-Jun-2014 Satisfactory Satisfactory 61.63 05 31-Jul-2014 Satisfactory Satisfactory 70.94 06 30-Jan-2015 Satisfactory Satisfactory 127.93 07 06-Aug-2015 Satisfactory Satisfactory 160.87 08 18-Nov-2015 Satisfactory Satisfactory 186.49 09 16-May-2016 Satisfactory Satisfactory 238.68 10 10-Nov-2016 Satisfactory Satisfactory 261.00 11 26-Jun-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 279.48 12 02-Jan-2018 Satisfactory Satisfactory 327.79 13 17-Jul-2018 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 327.79 14 31-Jan-2019 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 346.12 15 22-Aug-2019 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 385.38 16 05-Feb-2020 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 393.34 17 13-Aug-2020 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 393.33 SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Transportation 100 Public Administration - Transportation 5 Rural and Inter-Urban Roads 95 Page 3 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Social Development and Protection 100 Fragility, Conflict and Violence 100 Conflict Prevention 50 Post-conflict reconstruction 50 ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Isabel M. Guerrero Hartwig Schafer Country Director: Robert J. Saum Melinda Good Director: John Henry Stein Guangzhe Chen Practice Manager: Binyam Reja Shomik Raj Mehndiratta Mohammad Ajmal Askerzoy, Task Team Leader(s): Mesfin Wodajo Jijo Abdul Hameed Khalili ICR Contributing Author: Muhammad Bilal Paracha Page 4 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Context 1. In 2002, the Government of Afghanistan launched the National Emergency Employment Program (NEEP), which focused on job creation and livelihood restoration through the maintenance of rural infrastructure. This was followed in 2005 by the National Rural Access Program (NRAP). Over 15,000 km of rural roads were rehabilitated under NRAP/NEEP, that is, 10 percent of the rural road network. These projects were financed through IDA, the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF), and other funds managed by various international donors, and their scope also included capacity development of the Ministry of Public Works (MPW) and the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD) for better administration of rural roads. 2. At the time of project preparation, road infrastructure in Afghanistan was in a dilapidated condition due to decades of civil war and political unrest. Natural calamities, including droughts, snowstorms, landslides, and flash floods, further aggravated the condition of the network. About half of the rural road network (50,700 km) was in fair to bad condition and over one-third (33,800 km) was barely accessible. Hence, accessibility to basic services, including workplaces, markets, education, and health facilities, was limited. Besides, the cost of transportation remained a huge burden due to the lack of connectivity and transport services. The formal maintenance regime was also practically nonexistent. However, in some cases the communities mobilized their own resources to develop and maintain a few roads. 3. The project was a follow-up to the World Bank’s earlier engagement to support rural roads, accessibility, and institutional development in the country—the National Emergency Rural Access Project (P103343) 1. Improving rural access was also expected to enhance the overall impact of the World Bank’s support for the health and education sectors. The success of the predecessor project provided the rationale to continue the World Bank’s involvement in the sector. 4. This project was aligned with the Government’s national priority programs with a broader vision of enhancing human security and equitable economic growth and integrating the rural economy to the regional market, through the provision of sustainable rural access to basic services. The project was also in line with the World Bank’s ISN 2009–2011, which focused on promoting the growth of the rural economy and improving rural livelihoods, and ISN 2012–2014, which focused on institutions and programs that can sustainably ensure equitable delivery of basic services across the country and for all Afghans. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 5. The project’s theory of change (ToC), as depicted in figure 1, was prepared by the Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) team based on the available project documents. 1 As envisaged in the World Bank’s Afghanistan Interim Strategy Notes (ISNs) for 2009–2011 and 2012–2014 Page 5 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Figure 1. Retrofitted ToC Prepared at ICR Stage Note: PIU = Program Implementation Unit, Km = Kilometers, m= meters, IC= institutional capacity, Component-D was not triggered during the project implementation. Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 6. At the time of the project design the PDO was to enable rural communities to benefit from all- season road to access basic services and facilities. Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 7. The key expected outcomes of the project were • [65%] percent of rural population living within 2 km of all-season roads in the project area; • [30%] percent reduction in travel time by a 4-wheel drive vehicle along roads improved under the project; and • Increased frequency of trips to the nearest essential services (including town markets, schools, and health facilities) connected by the roads improved under the project. Components 8. At the time of Board approval the project had three components.2 2 As outlined in Schedule 1 of the ARTF Grant Agreement (ARTF Grant Number TF013093). Page 6 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Component A: Improvement and maintenance of secondary roads 9. This component was implemented by the MPW and required carrying out road works for (a) Improvement of unpaved secondary roads to paved standards; (b) Upgrading of paved secondary roads to bituminous surface; (c) Construction of bridges on secondary roads; (d) Periodic maintenance of unpaved secondary roads; (e) Periodic maintenance of paved secondary roads; (f) Routine maintenance of paved and unpaved secondary roads; and (g) Emergency maintenance of secondary roads. 10. Strengthening the capacity of the MPW PIU for day-to-day implementation of the project, including compliance with financial, environmental, and procurement management; reporting requirements; and monitoring and supervision activities. Component B: Improvement and maintenance of tertiary roads 11. This component was implemented by the MRRD and required carrying out road works for (a) Rehabilitation of tertiary roads; (b) Periodic maintenance of tertiary roads; (c) Routine maintenance of tertiary roads; (d) Emergency maintenance of tertiary roads; and (e) Construction of bridges on tertiary roads. 12. Strengthening the capacity of the MRRD PIU for day-to-day implementation of the project, including compliance with financial, environmental, and procurement management; reporting requirements; and monitoring and supervision activities. Component C: Program planning and development, institutional strengthening, and program coordination support 13. This component was proposed in continuation of activities launched under the National Emergency Rural Access Project for capacity-building initiatives of the MPW and MRRD in the areas of financial management (FM), road maintenance contracting, and outsourcing of maintenance. It had the following subcomponents: (a) Setting up a rural roads planning and management system, including (i) Establishing a rural road network inventory system and carrying out the first cycle inventory; Page 7 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) (ii) Developing a comprehensive set of rural road design standards, including improvement of cost estimation system and productivity norms, and updating the technical specifications; and (iii) Establishing a network planning, development, and management system, including a mechanism for the definition of appropriate service levels and appropriate techniques for economic appraisal, a system for the short-, medium- and long-term rural road maintenance, and a system for preparing a rolling five-year investment plan for rural roads. (b) Institutional strengthening and capacity building in the rural road sector, including (i) Carrying out a study of the laws, regulations, organizational structure, and the human resource capacity of the rural road sector and proposing necessary changes and strengthening measures; (ii) Preparing and implementing a comprehensive capacity development plan for public sector staff responsible for NRAP; (iii) Providing six (6) months on-the job training for some fifty (50) fresh graduates per year from engineering and social science fields; (iv) Support to some one hundred and forty (140) internship students of engineering and social science universities per year through the provision of incentives during their research and practical period; (v) Sponsoring Master’s Degree programs for about twenty (20) program staff through national and international academic institutions; (vi) Capacity building of the domestic construction industry through specialized publications, seminars, workshops, and training programs; and (vii) Constructing regional functional buildings and material laboratories in eight (8) regions and enhancing the program library and archive consolidation. (c) Program coordination support, including (i) Financing the operating costs of the National Coordination Unit; (ii) Supporting the monitoring and evaluation (M&E), baseline and follow-up survey, technical support for the midterm review (MTR), technical and financial audits, and fiduciary and safeguard control measure for the MPW and MRRD; (iii) Preparing a public relations program and implementation; and (iv) Support for the establishment of a road agency, study tours, and sector studies. Page 8 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION 14. The project was provided additional financing (AF) effective July 20, 2017, to cover a financing gap of US$155 million 3 (after the reallocation of US$7 million from project management support to civil works). This gap developed due to (a) a cost increase of US$72 million to include all-weather resilience in road designs and the change in the value of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) in relation to the US dollar 4 and (b) the scaling-up of activities under the respective project components, amounting to US$83 million, to increase the all-season road access coverage. 15. The project received AF and was restructured twice, to make the following changes: (a) a 23- month extension in the ARTF grant closing date from March 31, 2018, to March 15, 2020; (b) the addition of a contingency emergency response component 5 and a change in the PDO to reflect this additional component; (c) the revision of two PDO indicators relating to gender-disaggregated data and increased beneficiaries from the scale-up; 6 (d) a subsequent extension of the IDA grant closing date from March 31, 2018, to March 15, 2020; 7 (e) extension of the IDA grant closing date from March 15, 2020, to December 31, 2020; and (f) cancelation of US$30 million under uncommitted funds. 8 In addition, a Level 1 restructuring was also processed along with the AF due to the triggering of a new safeguards policy (OP/BP 4.11 Physical Cultural Resources). Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 16. The language of the PDO was modified slightly under the AF to better reflect the additional component and the assessment of indicators, that is, the addition of an emergency response mechanism as a fourth component to allow a quick response to potential major natural and man-made disasters. The revised PDO 9 is to enable (a) rural communities to benefit from all-season road access to basic services and facilities and (b) an early emergency response in the event of an eligible crisis or emergency. 3 US$155 million was requested and approved under the AF and was termed Scenario 2. However, only US$105 million was released and made available (termed Scenario 1, confirmed). See tables 2.5 and 2.6 of the AF Project Paper. 4 Of which, US$69 million for revised designs to meet site and climate resilience requirements and US$3 million for SDR depreciation. 5 Added to enable the Government to mobilize adequate resources and funds in response to any emergencies and/or natural disasters. 6 (a)–(c) processed under the AF. 7 (d) processed under the first restructuring (March 2018). 8 (e)–(f) processed under the second restructuring (March 2020). 9 According to the restructuring paper (March 2020). Page 9 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Revised Components 17. The changes to each component are detailed in the following paragraphs. Component A: Improvement and maintenance of secondary roads 10 18. The scope of this component was increased as follows: improvement of secondary roads and construction of bridges—an increase of 100 km 11 of asphalt roads—and the construction of an additional 700 m 12 of bridges. 19. The roads under the AF focused on enhancing the secondary road network connectivity by filling the network’s basic connectivity gaps because of unpaved roads and upgrading roads with large traffic volumes to paved standards to sustain proper service levels. Priority was given to the provinces that were affected the most due to the conflict and were not part of previous development initiatives. These include the provinces of Bamyan, Nuristan, and Badaskhan. 20. The roads and bridges were identified, selected, and prioritized based on a robust multi-criteria analysis (see annex 4). The secondary roads proposed for upgrading to a higher standard, including paving, were required to have a traffic volume of at least 300 vehicles per day as a matter of MPW policy. In addition, the proposed investments should either have an economic rate of return that is at least equal to or greater than the opportunity cost of capital or a net present value (NPV) that is positive at a discount rate of 12 percent. 21. Bridges were prioritized based on the population that was provided year-round access and the likely traffic volumes, relative to the investment cost of the bridge. For example, priority was given to the bridges that connect villages to roads that are already improved but also considering the population served. Component B: Improvement and maintenance of tertiary roads 22. The scope was increased as follows: (a) Rehabilitation of 1,300 km of tertiary roads. An additional 300 km 13 of roads was added with an estimated cost of US$34 million. (b) Construction of 1,600 m of bridges (600 m 14 was added). (c) Routine maintenance of about 2,000 km (1,800 km 15 of roads was added). (d) Project management and implementation support. 10 Figures according to the AF Paper page 11 and annex 1. 11 Scenario 1 [US$105 million]: No increase, Scenario 2[US$ 155m]: 100 km. 12 Scenario 1: No increase, Scenario 2: 700 m. 13 Scenario 1: 120 km, Scenario 2: 300 km. 14 Scenario 1: No increase, Scenario 2: 350 m. 15 Scenario 1: 3,750 km, Scenario 2: 5,000 km. Page 10 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) 23. The estimated saving of US$1.5 million was reallocated to the subcomponent on rehabilitation and maintenance of tertiary roads due to the increase in the scope of works (additional roads and supervision). 24. The AF supported tertiary road network accessibility by extending the network coverage to isolated villages and improving road conditions to support agricultural products and rural development. This helped in improving road conditions and travel time. The roads and bridges were identified, selected, and prioritized based on a robust multi-criteria analysis mostly covering social aspects (details are provided in annex 4). Component C: Program planning and development, institutional strengthening, and program coordination support 25. The following subcomponents were scaled up: (a) Setting up a rural roads planning and management system. An additional US$5 million was proposed for the Kabul-Jalalabad-Torkham-Peshawar expressway feasibility study and for local road network planning in the Kabul-Jalalabad-Torkham-Peshawar corridor. (b) Institutional strengthening and capacity building. An additional US$2 million was provided to sponsor vocational training and other support for technical capacities, including assistance for key studies for sector reform and public-private partnerships. (c) Program coordination support. About US$3 million was added to address the financial loss due to the SDR-US dollar exchange rate changes. Component D: Contingency emergency response 26. This zero-dollar component was added as part of the AF to enable a quick response to potential major natural and man-made disasters. It would be activated under a predetermined criterion if the need arose. Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change 27. As indicated earlier, the AF and the restructurings were processed to cover the financing gap due to the cost overrun and to scale up activities. These changes are reflected in the ToC. II. OUTCOME 16 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs 28. Relevance of the PDO is rated High. 16Due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, no site visit was conducted. The project has been assessed based on the available official documents and discussions with the team members. Page 11 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating 29. At the time of project closing in December 2020, the PDO remained highly relevant to the World Bank Group’s Afghanistan Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY17–FY20 (Report No. 108727-AF). The PDO is aligned with Pillar 2: Supporting Inclusive Growth and Pillar 3: Social Inclusion. The project is consistent with the CPF Objective 2.2: 17 improved domestic and regional integration, Objective 3.1: improved human development, and Objective 3.3: improved government and community capacity to manage and respond to natural disasters. In addition, the PDO is aligned with Pillar 3: Economic and Social Development of the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS) 18 and the Afghanistan National Peace and Development Framework (ANPDF). 19 Both ANDS and ANPDF aimed to provide all-weather connectivity between the communities and to the urban centers, resulting in reduced transport costs and thus improving livelihoods. In addition, improved access to health and education would improve human development. Climate-resilient infrastructure would help the communities better respond to natural disasters. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome 30. The PDO is to (a) to enable rural communities to benefit from all-season road to access basic services and facilities and (b) an early emergency response in the event of a crisis or an emergency. However, this assessment of efficacy is based only on PDO (a), as PDO (b) was not triggered. As indicated in the ToC, all components and subcomponents of the project contributed significantly toward achievement of the PDO. 31. Component A: Improvement and maintenance of secondary roads. At completion, the project successfully improved and maintained 890 km (89 percent of the target) of gravel and 289 km (116 percent of the target) of asphalt roads with respect to the original scope of works and constructed 1,480 m (110 percent of the target) of bridges, thus improving mobility and connectivity between rural communities. In addition, routine and periodic maintenance work was also completed on 2,150 km of roads (115 percent of the target) contracted out to local communities. To ensure all-weather serviceability of the network, 43 emergency and post-disaster maintenance contracts 20 were implemented. 32. Component B: Improvement and maintenance of tertiary roads. At completion, the project successfully improved and maintained 1,550 km (109 percent of the target) of roads with respect to the original scope of works and constructed 1,980 m (110 percent of the target) of bridges, thus improving mobility and connectivity between rural communities. In addition, routine and periodic maintenance work on 5,635 km of roads contracted out to local communities was also successfully completed. To ensure all- weather serviceability of the network, 895 emergency and post-disaster maintenance contracts 21 were implemented. 17 World Bank Group’s Afghanistan Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY17–FY20 (Report No. 108727-AF). 18 Economic and Social Development - Transport: ANDS 1387–1391 (2008–2013). 19 Section 5.5: Economic Growth and Job Creation and 5.6: Poverty Reduction and Social Inclusion of ANPDF (2017–2021). 20 Client Project Closure Report, June 2020. 21 Client Project Closure Report, June 2020. Page 12 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) 33. Component C: Program planning and development, institutional strengthening, and program coordination support. Under this component, the geographic information system (GIS)-based road inventory, along with a condition survey, was completed in 33 out of 34 provinces. This is an important milestone, which would support sustainable maintenance of existing assets and would provide guidance for strategic interventions, especially while planning new infrastructure. The institutional strengthening subcomponent helped train 500 staff of the respective PIUs and offered internships to 2,000 fresh graduates, including 20 female graduates. A beneficiary satisfaction survey 22 carried out under this component rated overall satisfaction at 3.95 out of 5; female respondents were more satisfied compared to male beneficiaries. 34. The achievement of PDO indicators and intermediate outcome indicators for the project are presented in table 1. Table 1. Achievement of PDO Indicators and Intermediate Outcome Indicators PDO Outcome indicators Target 23 Baseline at Project Achieved at 24 Project Start Completion Indicator description Percent of rural population living 65 percent 58 percent 89 percent within 2 km of all-season roads in the project area Percent reduction in travel time by a 30 percent reduction • Public clinic - 1 • Public clinic - 0.5 4-wheel drive vehicle along improved hour hour [50 percent roads under the project • Public hospital - 2 reduced 25] hours • Public hospital - 1.4 • District centers - hours [30 percent 1.8 hours reduced] • Provincial centers - • District centers - 6.4 hours 1.4 hours [22.2 • Closest market - percent reduced] 1.4 hours • Provincial centers - 2.1 hours [67.1 percent reduced] • Closest market - 1.25 hours [11 percent reduced] Increased frequency of trips to Male Male Male nearest essential services (including • 48 percent travel • 42 percent travel • 63.1 percent travel town markets, schools, and health daily to/from daily to/from daily to/from facilities) connected by the roads village district village district village district improved under the project centers centers centers [50.2 percent increased 26] 22 Final report, December 2020. Summary under annex 7. 23 According to annex 1 of the AF Paper. 24 According to annex 1 of the Aide Memoire for Virtual Mission (November 9–23, 2020). 25 With reference to Baseline at project start. 26 With reference to Baseline at project start. Page 13 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) PDO Outcome indicators Target 23 Baseline at Project Achieved at 24 Project Start Completion Indicator description • 45 percent travel • 39 percent travel • 60.8 percent travel to/from to/from provincial to/from provincial provincial and and other and other locations other locations locations within within the province within the the province [55.8 percent province increased] Female • 23 percent travel Female Female daily to/from • 20 percent travel • 17.2 percent travel village district daily to/from daily to/from centers village district village district • 18 percent travel centers centers [14 percent to/from • 16 percent travel reduced] provincial and to/from provincial • 20.6 percent travel other locations and other to/from provincial within the locations within and other locations province the province within the province [28.7 percent increased] Intermediate outcome and output indicators Km of gravel surfaced secondary 1,000 — 890 roads rehabilitated Km of asphalt surface secondary 250 — 289 roads rehabilitated Construction of bridges on secondary 1,351 — 1,480 roads (meters) Km of secondary roads under routine 1,870 — 2,150 and periodic maintenance Km of gravel surface tertiary roads 1,420 — 1,550 rehabilitated Construction of bridges on tertiary 1,800 — 1,980 roads (meters) Km of tertiary roads under routine 3,750 — 3,500 and periodic maintenance Complete road inventory 100 percent Inventory available 95 percent complete but outdated and does not provide essential information Improved network management System in place No reliable system in System in place system in place place Design standards developed and Standard being Incomplete design Design standards adopted adopted standards adopted Cost estimation system developed System in place No reliable system in System in place and and fully functional place functioning Page 14 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) PDO Outcome indicators Target 23 Baseline at Project Achieved at 24 Project Start Completion Indicator description FM system in MRRD and MOT System in place No reliable system in System in place and developed and functional place functioning Road sector organizational study To be conducted Not conducted Dropped prepared Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 35. The overall efficacy of the project is rated Substantial. The project was able to achieve, and in some cases exceeded, the targets for construction, rehabilitation, and maintenance of the road network and bridges. It helped rural communities improve and increase their accessibility to important basic services and urban centers, reduced the climate vulnerability of the network; and provided technical and financial support to better respond to emergency situations. Setting up the network management system under the project was a significant milestone toward the sustainability of the network and for optimum utilization of available financial resources. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 did not affect project completion due to the adoption of timely mitigation measures as advised by the relevant local authorities and there being few ongoing contracts to complete. Further, the remaining works involved construction in open areas/sites where safe distances could be maintained. 36. The project helped connect provincial capitals and access more than 97 percent of district centers with four-wheel motor vehicles. Most of the country’s 45,000 villages were made accessible through four- wheel vehicle roads, except for about 4,800 villages that have no motor vehicle access. 27 Improved connectivity and network conditions contributed to an overall improvement (2011–2016) 28 of 3.4 percent in the literacy rate 29 and 14.4 percent in access to skilled antenatal care 30 across the country. The bridges constructed and rehabilitated under the project were pivotal in providing all-weather connectivity among rural communities and enabling them to access public facilities and urban centers (see annex 7). Overall, achievements under the project (original and AF) were significant, despite Afghanistan being a fragile country with a volatile security situation. C. EFFICIENCY Assessment of Efficiency and Rating 37. Economic efficiency. The project involved the rehabilitation and maintenance of mostly unpaved secondary and tertiary roads, with the primary objective of providing reliable and all-weather access to essential services. Motorized traffic on these roads was not substantial. Hence, it is not feasible to carry out a traditional cost-benefit analysis for these roads and bridges. For unpaved roads (secondary and 27 AF Paper. 28 World Bank Afghanistan Time-Series Dashboard. 29 Percentage of the total population ages 15 years and older who are literate, that is, able to read and write. 30 Percentage of women ages 49 years and younger, ever married, who during their last pregnancy reported at least one visit to a skilled medical staff. Page 15 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) tertiary), the economic viability was evaluated based on the cost per beneficiary index (CBI) 31 for the original project and AF. There are no well-established criteria for determining the ‘opportunity cost’ threshold when ranking is based on the CBI. However, compared with other World Bank rural road projects, the overall CBI of project roads at appraisal and completion were found economically justifiable, that is, lower than the US$490 per beneficiary 32 set as the threshold in a 2006 World Bank-funded project in Morocco. 38. At appraisal, the overall CBI for secondary roads after detailed design with new cost estimates remained in the range of US$120 to US$240 per beneficiary, 33 with an average of US$207 per beneficiary, 34 which is well below the threshold. At completion, the CBI reduced by almost US$99, with an average of US$108 per beneficiary, 35 due to the (a) appreciation of the US dollar against the Afghani 36 and (b) reduction in costs because of site requirements. 39. The average CBI for tertiary roads (paved and unpaved) and bridges after detailed design with new cost estimates varied in the range of US$44 (unpaved) to US$62 (paved) per beneficiary, 37 with an average of US$94 per beneficiary which is well below the threshold. At completion, the average CBI (using costs at completion) reduced by US$50, with an average of US$44 per beneficiary. 40. For a few roads, the CBI at completion crossed the threshold but met the criteria and principles set both in the parent project and the AF to connect rural communities and improve all-weather accessibility. Keeping in view the lack of security, the underdeveloped construction industry, the capacity constraints of PIUs, and currency devaluation, the CBIs at completion are about what can be expected in an FCV country such as Afghanistan. Table 2. Average CBIs Type of Road Average CBI (US$) At Appraisal At Completion Secondary roads (unpaved) 207 108 Tertiary roads (paved and 94 44 unpaved) and bridges 41. For paved secondary roads, economic viability was evaluated using the Highway Development and Management Model (HDM-4). Despite a cost increase after detailed design, the EIRRs for these roads at appraisal remained at least 18.3 percent 38 and increased by 48 percent at completion with the lowest value of 27 percent. The total NPV at appraisal was US$276 million and increased by 10 percent at completion, that is, to US$305 million. The EIRRs at project completion are higher than those estimated at appraisal primarily because of an overall reduction in contract costs. All the contracts were in the local 31 CBI is the estimated cost divided by the estimated number of beneficiaries to establish cost effectiveness with respect to the number of beneficiaries served. 32 The Caisse Pour le Financement Routier, with the Guarantee of the Kingdom of Morocco, for a Second Rural Roads Project. Report No: 351 18-MA. 33 AF Project Paper, annex 3. 34 According to the data sheet available. 35 According to the revised costs received from the PIUs. 36 The contracts were made in local currency. 37 AF Paper, annex 3. 38 AF Paper, annex 3. Page 16 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Afghani, which depreciated with respect to the US dollar during project implementation, and thereby resulted in savings. Table 3. EIRR and NPV Type of Road Minimum EIRR (percent) NPV (US$, millions) At Appraisal At Completion At Appraisal At Completion Secondary roads (paved) 18.3 27 276 305 Note: EIRR = Economic Internal Rate of Return. 42. Design and implementation efficiency. The project components were designed appropriately, with a focus on rehabilitation maintenance (routine and periodic) of secondary and tertiary roads, as well as new construction of bridges. The roads and bridges were designed to enhance basic connectivity and upgrade roads with larger traffic volumes to paved standards 39 to address the needs of motorization. The technical standards adopted for the construction and maintenance of roads and bridges conformed to the standards outlined by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO). Cost-effective innovative options were adopted for durability and climate-resilient road surfacing 40 and causeways and culverts were also provided, which met the geographic and climatic needs of the country. Despite the prevailing security conditions, as well as political challenges, construction progressed ahead of expectations and significantly improved the network condition. 43. Project costs increased due to scaling up, the lack of availability of reliable cost data during the preparation of appraisal estimates in Afghanistan’s FCV context, and an enhanced focus on climate resilience during implementation. The project was extended thrice, for a total of 23 months, to complete the original scope of works as well as works under the AF. There was a cancelation of US$30 million in uncommitted funds, which was largely the result of savings due to the depreciation of the Afghani against the US dollar. At completion, a combined US$7.63 million 41 of the ARTF grant and the IDA grant remained undisbursed due to (a) currency devaluation, 42 (b) payment of retention monies for the completed works, and (c) balance works 43 for which the payment was pending. It is expected that this undisbursed amount will be disbursed by the end of the financial closing period, which was extended from April 2021 to June 2021. 44 This surplus amount would be processed for cancelation at final closing. 44. Based on the above discussion, the efficiency of the project is rated Substantial. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 45. Based on the ratings of relevance (High), efficacy (Substantial), and efficiency (Substantial), the overall outcome of the project is rated Satisfactory. 39 Example: gravel road upgraded to asphaltic roads. 40 Emulsified asphalt, fog seal, and otta seal. 41 As of August 31, 2021 (operations portal). 42 Afghani versus US dollar. The committed amount was in US dollars while the contracts were made in local Afghani. 43 Six contracts were under implementation, that is, two contracts from the MRRD and four contracts from the MPW. 44 Further information on processing of balance payments and submission of necessary documentation could not be made due to the absence of PIU staff owing to the deteriorating security situation and temporary pause on the Bank’s operations. Page 17 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS Gender 46. The project (original and AF) was designed to ensure gender mainstreaming by strengthening the involvement of women at all stages, from community mobilization to consultation, implementation, and capacity building. The project conducted 280 consultations with women (where around 6,800 women participated) and the PIUs established 348 female grievance redress committees. During implementation, the project directly and indirectly hired 32 women who worked as gabion weavers, eight female engineers, 20 female interns, six female road cleaners, and two female bakers. The project set up and maintained separate rest rooms for women. In addition, 194 women filed grievances. Through the beneficiary satisfaction survey, almost 36 percent of women confirmed that they were invited during the consultation phase. 45 Female respondents were also found to be more satisfied with the project outcomes than male beneficiaries. Institutional Strengthening 47. One of the most significant achievements of the project was the success in developing implementation capacity in the client, which facilitated seamless transition of project management from the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS). 46 The PIUs gradually took over implementation of the project from UNOPS within 18 months. Almost 500 professionals received professional training under the project, and 11 staff were sponsored for a master’s degree program. The technical capacity of the staff improved significantly and some of the PIU staff were promoted to high-level government positions (Deputy Minister of Public Works 47 was in the PIU earlier). Due to these trainings and close World Bank support, there was a gradual transfer of FM responsibilities to the relevant PIUs. At project completion, FM staff in the PIUs had the lowest turnover among the Afghanistan PIUs, due to which disbursements were made on time and all covenants were complied with. 48. The project also helped in setting up a GIS-based road management system (RMS), which was previously nonexistent. This will help the respective ministries plan and implement sustainable maintenance of the road network. In addition, the project helped in the construction of nine regional offices and the development and installation of the project management information system. The project unlocked business opportunities for local contractors and the allied construction industry. During project implementation, the contractors were also provided technical trainings related to the environment, safeguards, gender, health, and safety. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 49. The project mitigated the potential impact of climate change through (a) route realignments to avoid areas with slopes/hydraulic sections vulnerable to climate risks, (b) enhanced slope protection and 45 Final report, December 2020. 46 At project effectiveness, UNOPS was hired by the Government as the implementation consultant to fill the essential skill gaps for project implementation, for example, project management and fiduciary management, including procurement and FM. 47 Who remained as Finance Manager at the PIU. Page 18 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) drainage structures, (c) changes in design standards for pavements that reflect a higher level of climate resilience, and (d) a decision to seal previously graveled roads for climate resilience. 50. The roads and bridges improved under the project (original and AF) provide rural communities (which comprise mostly poor people) year-round access to public facilities, markets, and workplaces. Livelihoods have improved due to better connections between farms and marketplaces, and land values have appreciated. The project has helped connect various communities and villages which were separated because either the roads and bridges were nonexistent or were damaged due to climate and political vulnerabilities. The project helped generate 4.5 million labor days of work despite a challenging FCV environment, which has seen an increase in the overall levels of conflict and poverty during the project period. Innovations 51. The project empowered the local communities and women by involving them in the process of identifying the roads for improvement and, in some cases, by involving them in construction activities (for example, gabion weaving by women) and community maintenance contracts. Community mobilization during project preparation and implementation was one of the key factors for the project’s success. Some of the areas under the project were not under the administrative control of the Government but were either controlled by various tribes or the opposition. Hence, local elders and tribal leaders were consulted in all phases of the project. This helped in overcoming the security and violence challenges in the project areas and created a sense of ownership among these communities. In addition, continuous technical assistance under the project met the needs of the officials of the MPW and MRRD and helped set up a GIS-based network planning system. 52. At project completion, over 1,500 km of secondary roads and 3,500 km of tertiary roads were contracted to local communities for routine maintenance. Periodic maintenance, which required mechanical equipment, was undertaken by local small- and medium-size contactors. The project involved the use of emulsified asphalt, fog seal, and outer seal to help prevent gravel erosion, surface runoff, and dust. In addition, the project also piloted the use of plain cement concrete (PCC), which proved to be cheaper and more efficient compared to asphalt roads. 48 The project employed an independent third- party monitoring (TPM) consultant to collect additional evidence from sites and ensure that the project delivered the envisaged outputs and outcomes. Community participation in all phases of the project, despite the FCV environment, was among the key factors for successful implementation of the project. III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 53. The project was declared effective within three months after its approval. It was designed carefully, keeping in mind national priorities (as outlined in the ANDS), the World Bank CPF, the capacity constraints of the MPW/MRRD, the dynamic political and security situation, and local culture. The project 48PCC was found to be more effective due to availability of local skills, material, and machinery. Besides this, the type of pavement was also suitable for the terrain and weather conditions. Page 19 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) ensured the participation of beneficiaries, including women, during project preparation. The prioritization criteria for the selection of potential roads and bridges were pragmatic and simple and met the huge demand for maintenance and rehabilitation. The scaling-up of activities under the AF reflected the project’s success and the needs of the country. 54. Initial cost estimates were not accurate due to the lack of reliable information at the time of appraisal. However, due to the timely approval of the AF, this did not affect overall project implementation. The project helped in developing an RMS but could not develop a bridge management system despite the construction of 3,900 m of new bridges under the original project and AF. 55. Risks were appropriately assessed at appraisal and remained the same for the AF. All identified risks were well mitigated to facilitate effective implementation. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 56. The AF was processed to cover the financing gap and scale up the original scope of works. The closing dates of the IDA grant and the ARTF were extended thrice, mainly to allow sufficient time for the completion of the expanded works. Factors Subject to the Control of the Government and/or Implementing Entities 57. Project implementation was affected initially due to the delay in the finalization of designs and i procurement of civil works. Consultants could not be appointed to conduct the feasibility for the Kabul- Jalalabad-Torkham-Peshawar expressway (under Component C of the project) despite the best efforts of the project agencies. The study was subsequently dropped by senior government leadership. 58. The performance of the PIUs was affected by the turnover of project staff and in some cases due to delays in appointing their replacements; however, continuous capacity development and support to the PIUs helped in delivering the intended outputs. This also facilitated seamless transition of project management from UNOPS. FM performance was Moderately Satisfactory at completion due to the identification of expenses, which were not related to the project, and non-traceable vehicles and cameras. However, these issues were resolved to the satisfaction of the World Bank. The project had the least turnover of FM staff among donor-funded projects in the country and complied with all FM covenants. Factors Subject to the World Bank Control 59. World Bank support was proactive in the resolution of issues that emerged and provided timely guidance to the respective PIUs. Due to security issues, the team mostly relied on field information collated by the supervision consultants, the respective PIUs, and an independent TPM consultant. Findings of the regular Implementation Support Missions (ISMs) were appropriately recorded in the Implementation Status and Results Reports (ISRs). Factors outside the Control of Government and/or Implementation Entities 60. Lack of adequate security was the biggest challenge that affected project implementation. It resulted, in some cases, in the loss of lives of PIU staff. Page 20 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) 61. The appreciation of the US dollar in relation to the SDR resulted in a US$3 million reduction in US dollar availability under the original IDA grant. This was addressed as part of the AF. The depreciation of the Afghani against the US dollar contributed to a part of the final undisbursed balance under the project, because the construction contracts were in local currency. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 62. The PDO and intermediate results indicators were generally well designed with baselines and realistic end targets to assess progress toward the achievement of the envisaged PDO and intermediate results. The project, however, lacked indicators to measure the quality aspects of works, for example, indicators to measure the roughness of road surfaces. Indicators pertaining to institutional strengthening and capacity building were broadly reflected in the Results Framework of the original project. The AF added new indicators (for example, on job creation and people trained), but these did not capture the enhanced ability to deal with environmental and social safeguards. Climate resilience could not be assessed well from the indicators in the Results Framework. Moreover, the sustainability of the assets created and improved under the project were not captured well in the Results Framework. 63. The project adopted a three-tiered structure for M&E: (a) consultants were engaged for field-level supervision/implementation, (b) dedicated M&E units were established in the PIUs, and (c) an independent TPM consultant was engaged by the World Bank. An Inter ministerial Steering Committee provided overall supervision and guidance throughout project implementation. M&E Implementation 64. The M&E was implemented as designed, and progress was monitored through the respective sources as outlined in the Results Framework Matrix. The project M&E system evolved throughout the project implementation period through continuous improvements under AF and respective restructuring. Due to security challenges, there were some delays in data collection, and field reporting relied on reports submitted by the supervision consultants, the TPM consultant, and the respective PIUs. Considering, Afghanistan being a fragile country these delays were inevitable but didn’t affect the overall progress of works. Both the PIUs prepared and submitted monthly, quarterly, and annual reports consistently until project closure. 65. The World Bank tracked progress on the PDO and key intermediate indicators as part of regular ISMs. In addition to reporting on the Results Framework Matrix, these missions adequately covered the status, progress, and issues related to FM, procurement, safeguards, and disbursements. The findings of these missions were candidly reflected through Aide Memoires, Management Letters, and ISRs. Regular follow-ups were conducted by the project team to resolve any outstanding issues. Page 21 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) M&E Utilization 66. The M&E reports and information were used to help the Government and World Bank management make informed decisions. The robust monitoring system in place, along with the close involvement of the World Bank staff, helped in timely identification of issues during implementation, including the financing gap due to the changes in scope and the associated time extensions. Timely decisions ensured smooth implementation, despite the social, political, and security challenges. The project’s M&E system generated periodic reports for different stakeholders during project implementation. In 2018, the project’s M&E team reported that the MPW would not be able to complete the planned works on secondary road rehabilitation by the closing date. 49 The project management team discussed the issue at the highest levels and with the World Bank team, and a strategic decision was made to move some of the contracts from the MPW to the MRRD. This resulted in the successful completion of work on secondary roads by using the available capacity at the MRRD to procure and complete those road packages. Overall, M&E was an important part of project implementation and was used effectively to monitor progress and resolve issues as they emerged, including through restructurings. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 67. Based on the discussion above, the overall quality of M&E is rated Substantial. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE Environmental Safeguards 68. The project was classified as Environmental Assessment Category B, as no major and irreversible environmental and social impacts were envisioned. This rating remained unchanged under the subsequent restructurings and the AF. The project developed an Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF), which listed the specific requirements, processes, and responsibilities for ensuring that activities implemented by the project would not have negative impacts on the environment and people. The ESMF was revised for the AF. The original and revised ESMFs were cleared by the World Bank and were disclosed in-country and on the World Bank’s external website. A Level 1 restructuring was also processed along with the AF due to the triggering of a new safeguards policy (OP/BP 4.11 Physical Cultural Resources). 69. The two PIUs established were adequately staffed for environmental safeguards implementation. The environmental safeguards rating for the project varied during project implementation, as instances of noncompliance were noted during supervision missions and were reported in the findings of the third- party monitors. The main issues pertained to poor occupational health and safety (OHS) arrangements at subproject sites and several subproject sites also lacked the required Environmental and Social Management Plans (ESMPs). The project also recorded two incidents: an insurgent activity during a field visit resulted in the loss of life and injuries to project staff and the lack of adequate safety measures in one of the subproject sites resulted in the loss of life of a community member. Both incidents were 49 The MPW was overworked due to other projects under implementation. In addition, the ministry, under its rules of business, procured civil works through National Competitive Bids (NCB), which was time-consuming and required a minimum six months. On the other hand, the MRRD has some surplus capacity in taking over these projects and implemented community-based contracting, which was swift and efficient. Page 22 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) formally notified to the World Bank, according to the guidelines of the Environment and Social incident response toolkit (ESIRT). The project staff prepared the incident reports and drafted corrective action plans to respond to the noncompliance on OHS matters. The project’s safeguards staff were also provided training on OHS. These resulted in an improvement in the implementation of OHS arrangements at the subproject sites. The project’s environmental safeguards compliance was rated Moderately Satisfactory in the final ISR. Social Safeguards 70. The project was generally compliant with the World Bank’s social safeguard requirements, as confirmed by the ISMs. The World Bank Involuntary Resettlement Policy (OP/BP 4.12) was triggered because of possible small-scale land acquisition impacts. The project decided that subprojects affecting more than 200 persons (project-affected persons) and/or land acquisition above 10 percent of the total land holdings of any project-affected person would not be funded. Land donation was the main approach initially used for taking private land for tertiary road subprojects. However, due to its negative socioeconomic impacts, especially on poor and vulnerable land donors, this approach was replaced by a community-based compensation approach. Under this method, the project beneficiaries contributed to compensate the affected people. This innovative method of compensation could be considered for other similar projects in Afghanistan. 71. Grievance redress mechanism (GRM). The standardized GRM registered 947 complaints, of which 194 complaints were registered by females. Most complaints related to employment issues, late payment of wages, contractor operations, land/asset disputes, and design issues. All complaints were successfully resolved, and there were no pending grievances at project completion. 72. Beneficiary satisfaction surveys. The project conducted two beneficiary satisfaction surveys, the first in January 2015 and the second in December 2020. The overall satisfaction scores for the Afghanistan Rural Access Project (ARAP) averaged 3.95 out of a possible 5, with satisfaction scores of 3.84 for relevance, 3.85 for effectiveness, 3.74 for efficiency, 4.60 for impact, and 3.83 for sustainability. Procurement 73. At appraisal, both the MPW and MRRD had PIUs, which had implemented NRAP, with the requisite staffing and capacity to take care of procurement under the project. The World Bank provided close support to the PIUs on procurement and conducted trainings for the PIU staff. Almost all civil works contracts were procured under National Competitive Bidding and direct contracting with Community Development Councils (CDCs). Procurement performance was rated Satisfactory during implementation, with the usual challenges and delays expected in an FCV country. The key issues that required World Bank monitoring and support were delays, the absence of proper documentation, staff turnover, and weak contract management. Overall, the experience was positive and most of the planned procurement time lines were achieved. Some procurement issues were noted and were resolved on time with the World Bank’s support. There were no unresolved procurement-related issues at project completion. Page 23 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Financial Management 74. The project maintained adequate FM arrangements, and the FM rating remained Moderately Satisfactory or above, except in one ISR when it was rated Moderately Unsatisfactory because of an unaddressed audit issue. The project submitted interim unaudited financial reports on time, except on a few occasions. The World Bank received the last three years’ audit reports with an average delay of four months due to delays on the part of the government auditors, which was beyond the project’s control. No significant issues were noted by the external auditors, and the project complied with most of the recommendations made by the auditors. 75. In 2019, the World Bank noted a few instances of staff being hired by the MPW for the project without adhering to proper recruitment processes. As a result, the MoPW refunded the salaries paid to these staff from the project funds. The Statement of Expenditure review by the TPM agent reported issues with regard to the procurement of a few contracts, staff allowances, and expenditure documentation for CDC contracts. The MoPW team resolved a significant portion of these issues. The only weak area of compliance was the internal audit. The financial closing of the project was extended till June 30, 2021, to facilitate the disbursement of the retention monies of the recently completed subprojects. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 76. The project was prepared considering the experiences of earlier World Bank-financed projects, including NRAP and NEEP. It was relevant to the emerging needs of the country for the improvement and reliability of its rural road infrastructure. The PDO was fully aligned with the World Bank’s CPF and the country’s priorities. Experience from the previous projects helped in designing the involvement of local communities through performance-based maintenance contracts and participation of beneficiaries, including women, in all phases of the project. The identification and prioritization criteria for the potential roads and bridges selected for rehabilitation/improvements were robust. The technical, fiduciary, and environmental and social safeguards aspects of the project were appraised with the required due diligence. The World Bank team assisted the PIUs through specialized consultants during preparation of the project. Implementation and M&E arrangements were finalized keeping in view the prevailing security, political, and social conditions of the country. However, the costs for roads and bridges were underestimated at appraisal due to the non-availability of field data. Project restructuring and the AF addressed the cost issues, while the additional scope under the AF reflected the needs of the sector. An RMS was incorporated in the project design to ensure sustainable maintenance of the existing and new road and bridge assets. Quality of Supervision 77. The World Bank team, along with specialized consultants (including the TPM consultant), remained proactively engaged with the PIUs throughout project implementation and helped in resolving various issues. The World Bank conducted 17 ISMs, including the project completion mission, and effectively recorded progress and issues through ISRs, Aide Memoires, and Management Letters. During these missions, rigorous checks and audits were performed to ensure compliance with fiduciary, environmental, and social safeguards policies. Any identified/reported noncompliance on fiduciary and Page 24 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) safeguards aspects subsequently resulted in the downgrading of the corresponding ratings. These issues were resolved according to the agreed actions plans, and there were no significant unresolved issues at project completion. 78. The World Bank team discussed the operational and maintenance sustainability of the assets constructed and improved under the project with the relevant government agencies. In particular, the availability of the required funding and ring-fencing to meet the maintenance needs were discussed; however, this issue remains unresolved, in part due to the uncertain political environment in Afghanistan. 79. The project was extended twice to allow additional time to complete the original and scaled-up scope of works. The 2015 MTR identified delays in procurement and issues with FM, which subsequently led to the downgrading of the ratings. A detailed action plan was prepared, adopted, and supervised to improve overall project implementation. 80. The World Bank’s ratings of FM performance were candid, issues were highlighted and followed up, and the project was provided the requisite implementation support. The audit reports were reviewed on time and action plans were agreed to implement audit recommendations. During the COVID-19 outbreak, the World Bank continued periodic supervision and transaction reviews based on scanned copies of documents. In addition, the World Bank employed a TPM agent to conduct transaction reviews and certify Statements of Expenditure during the pandemic. All fiduciary issues were tracked through the World Bank’s Compliance Management System during the last year of implementation. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 81. Based on the discussion above, the World Bank’s overall performance is rated Satisfactory. D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 82. The timely availability of funds to preserve the project-supported roads and bridges (as well as other assets) remains uncertain at project completion. Retention of staff trained under the project is another challenge, as the PIUs would dissolve, and their staff would look for opportunities elsewhere in the Government or in other agencies outside the Government. In addition, roads and bridges have been a high target during conflicts in Afghanistan and are likely to bear heavy losses in case of conflicts. Keeping the above in view, the risk to development outcomes at project completion is High. V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 83. Simple project design and the involvement of local communities play a critical role in the successful implementation of development projects in FCV countries. The ARAP design was simple and clear and met the needs of the country in improving all-weather infrastructure and connecting rural communities to essential services. Community engagement during the selection of roads, especially during maintenance, helped in smooth implementation of the project. This helped in developing a sense of responsibility and ownership and created livelihood opportunities. The unstable political situation in the project areas was offset by consulting the local elders in all phases of the project cycle. Community- based compensation for land acquisition was a successful project innovation that helped in avoiding land- Page 25 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) related disputes. Such an approach may be adopted as an integral part of future projects in Afghanistan and possibly in other FCV contexts. 84. Develop the local construction industry and the capacities of implementation agencies. In an FCV environment, an underdeveloped construction industry and capacity-constrained implementation agencies lead to higher costs and delays in implementation. Investment in building local capacity in all tiers of government and in the local contractors enabled this project to perform well, with limited reliance on international consulting inputs. The PIUs comprised permanent staff of the relevant ministries and contributed to the achievement of results, ensured their sustainability, and reduced staff turnover during implementation. This also helped the relevant ministries retain the core capacities of the PIUs and resulted in the elevation of their staff to key leadership positions. The gradual transfer of implementation, including FM, from UNOPS to the respective PIUs reflects the success of continued professional training under the project. Technical trainings for the local contractors on the environment, safeguards, gender, health, and safety resulted in compliance with the World Bank’s guidelines and unlocked business opportunities for the local construction industry. This was particularly helpful, as the participation of international contractors was a challenge because of Afghanistan’s FCV environment. 85. Third Party Monitoring. The use of TPM to conduct many visits to various project sites for observations and reporting proved to be successful as it helped World Bank staff carry out effective due diligence in an environment where site monitoring by World Bank staff was not possible. 86. Contract packaging. The scope of the project, its geographic spread, and the limitation on contract sizes resulted in hundreds of contracts, which led to a large workload for procurement, implementation, and monitoring. Task teams should consider increasing the size of contracts to the extent possible in the FCV context, by geographic clustering for more efficient project management and to optimize resources for monitoring. . Page 26 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: to enable rural communities to benefit from all-season road access to basic services and facilities Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Share of rural population with Percentage 58.00 65.00 89.00 access to an all-season road 15-Dec-2012 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 Number of rural people with Number 13500000.00 15080000.00 20,648,000.00 access to an all-season road Comments (achievements against targets): Targets exceeded. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Percent reduction in travel time Percentage 0.00 30.00 36.00 Page 27 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) by a 4-wheel drive vehicle 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 along roads improved under the project Comments (achievements against targets): The original reduction target of 30% for accessibility has exceeded for public clinic (50%), provincial centers (67%), met for public hospitals (30%), while for district center (22%) and closest market (11%) remained underachieved. Improved access to provincial centers (offering more opportunities) has reduced the need to travel to district centers. Actual achieved at completion 36% is computed as a mean of the respective achieved values. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Increased frequency of trips to Percentage 0.00 15.00 30.00 nearest essential services (including town markets, 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 schools and health facilities) connected by the roads improved under the project Comments (achievements against targets): The percentage targets for male citizens are achieved. The targets for female citizens for trips to provincial centers is achieved, however for district centers is reduced. Improved access to provincial centers (offering more opportunities) has reduced the need to travel to district centers. Actual achieved at completion 30% is computed as a mean of the respective achieved values. Page 28 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Component A - Improvement and maintenance of secondary roads Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Km of gravel surfaced Kilometers 0.00 1000.00 890.00 secondary roads rehabilitated 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 26-Jul-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): 89% of the target has been achieved. Remaining roads are under completion. The target is expected to be fully achieved. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Km of asphalt surfaced Kilometers 0.00 250.00 289.00 secondary roads rehabilitated 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 26-Jul-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Targets exceeded. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Page 29 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Roads constructed, Rural Kilometers 0.00 2670.00 0.00 2,729.00 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 26-Jul-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Targets exceeded. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Construction of bridges on Meter(m) 0.00 1351.00 1,480.00 secondary roads 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 26-Jul-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Targets exceeded. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Km of secondary roads under Kilometers 0.00 1870.00 2,150.00 routine and periodic maintenance scheme 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 26-Jul-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 30 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Targets exceeded. Local communities were also contracted for the maintenance works. Component: Component B - Improvement and maintenance of tertiary roads Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Km of gravel surfaced tertiary Kilometers 0.00 1420.00 1,550.00 roads rehabilitated 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 26-Jul-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Targets exceeded. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Construction of bridges on Meter(m) 0.00 1800.00 1,980.00 tertiary roads 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 26-Jul-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Targets exceeded. Page 31 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Km of tertiary roads under Kilometers 0.00 3750.00 3,500.00 routine and periodic maintenance scheme 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 26-Jul-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): 93% of the target has been achieved. Remaining roads are under completion. The target is expected to be fully achieved. Component: Component C- Program Planning and Development, Institutional Strengthening and Program Coordination Support Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Complete Road Inventory Percentage 0.00 100.00 95.00 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 26-Jul-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): 95% of the target has been achieved. Field visits to roads located at few provinces could not be accessed due to volatile security situation. The target is expected to be fully achieved. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Page 32 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Improved Network Yes/No No Y Yes Management system in place 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 26-Jul-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Targets achieved. This would help in strategic planning of additional roads and maintenance of existing assets. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Design standards developed Yes/No No Y Yes and adopted 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 26-Jul-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Targets achieved. This would help in upgrading the existing unpaved roads. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Cost estimation system Yes/No No Y Yes developed and fully functional 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 26-Jul-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 33 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Targets achieved. This would help in strategic planning of additional roads and maintenance of existing assets. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Financial Management System Yes/No No Y Yes in MRRD and MPW developed and functional 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 26-Jul-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Targets achieved. This would ensure financial sustainability of the respective Ministries. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion No. of Jobs created along the Number 0.00 2800000.00 4,500,000.00 project roads (labor days) 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 26-Jul-2021 Comments (achievements against targets): Targets exceeded. Component: Component D: Contingency Emergency Response Page 34 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion No of emergencies addressed Number 0.00 0.00 0.00 04-Aug-2021 04-Aug-2021 29-Jul-2020 Comments (achievements against targets): Not activated. Page 35 of 48 Official Use The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT Objective / Outcome: (a) Enable rural communities to benefit from all-season road access to basic services and facilities; (b) and an early emergency response in the event of an eligible crises or emergency Outcome Indicators Achieved Percent of rural population living within 2 km of 89% all-season roads in the project area Percent reduction in travel time by a 4-wheel • Public clinic - 0.5 hour drive vehicle along improved road under the • Public hospital - 1.4 hours project • District centers - 1.4 hours • Provincial centers - 2.1 hours • Closest market - 1.25 hours Increased frequency of trips to nearest essential Male: services (including town markets, schools, and • 63.1% travel daily to from village district centers health facilities) connected by the roads • 60.8% to from provincial & other location within improved under the project. province. Female: • 17.2% male travel daily to from village district centers • 20.6% to from provincial & other location within province. Component-A: Improvement and maintenance of secondary roads Km of gravel surfaced secondary roads 890 km completed, remaining under implementation. rehabilitated Km of Asphalt surface secondary roads 289 km rehabilitated Construction of bridges on secondary roads 1,480 m Km of secondary roads under routine and 2,150 km periodic maintenance Component-B: Improvement and maintenance of tertiary roads Km of gravel surface tertiary roads rehabilitated 1,550 km Construction of bridges on tertiary roads 1,980 m Km of tertiary roads under routine and periodic 3,500 km completed, remaining under implementation. maintenance Component-C: Program planning and development, institutional strengthening, and program coordination support Complete road inventory 95 percent completed, remaining under implementation. Improved network management system in place System in place Design standards developed and adopted Design standards adopted Cost estimation system developed and fully System in place and functioning functional FM system in MRRD and MOT developed and System in place and functioning functional Road sector organizational study prepared Dropped due to political reasons Page 36 of 48 The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Mesfin Wodajo Jijo Task Team Leader Luquan Tian Team Leader (Additional Financing) Nazaneen Ismail Ali, Aimal Sherzad Procurement Specialist (s) Asha Narayan Financial Management Specialist Abdul Hameed Khalili Team Member Abdullah Noorzad Team Member Adenike Sherifat Oyeyiola Team Member Ahmed Shah Ahmadzai Team Member Faly Diallo Team Member James Orehmie Monday Team Member Janardhanan Ramanujam Team Member Juan Carlos Alvarez Counsel Khalid Boukantar Team Member Mohammad Asif Qurishi Team Member Mohammad Yasin Noori Safeguards Specialist Mohammad Ajmal Askerzoy Team Member Obaidullah Hidayat Safeguards Specialist Rachel S. Palmer Team Member Tema Alawari Kio-Michael Team Member Victor Ordonez Team Member Supervision/ICR Mohammad Ajmal Askerzoy, Abdul Hameed Khalili Task Team Leader(s) Aimal Sherzad, Muhammad Abbass Rahimi Procurement Specialist(s) Ahmed Shah Ahmadzai Financial Management Specialist Mohammad Yasin Noori Social Specialist Page 37 of 48 The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Najla Sabri Team Member Syed Waseem Abbas Kazmi Team Member Sayed Mujtaba Shobair Environmental Specialist Ahmad Shakeeb Safai Counsel Zakia Bakhtari Team Member B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY11 0 2,960.00 FY12 40.650 232,480.62 Total 40.65 235,440.62 Supervision/ICR FY12 0 180.78 FY13 57.522 132,934.22 FY14 62.341 136,153.22 FY15 69.345 193,226.07 FY16 61.927 181,577.54 FY17 56.917 179,730.10 FY18 44.729 138,614.32 FY19 38.432 101,584.48 FY20 50.501 193,921.65 Total 441.71 1,257,922.38 Page 38 of 48 The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Components Amount at Amount Total Amount Actual at Percentage Approval Approved under (US$, Project Closing of Approval (US$, AF (US$, millions) millions) (US$, millions) millions) Component A: Improvement 186.00 105.00 291.00 243.00 130.64 and maintenance of secondary roads Component B: Improvement 128.00 40.00 168.00 143.00 111.71 and maintenance of tertiary roads Component C: Program 18.00 10.00 28.00 21.00 116.67 planning and development, institutional strengthening and program coordination support Component D: Contingency 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 emergency response Total 332.00 155.00 487.00 407.00 125.60 Note: The project was provided AF to cover a financing gap of US$155 million 50 (after a reallocation of US$7 million from project management support to civil works). This gap developed due to (a) a cost increase of US$72 million to include climate resilience in road designs and the change in the value of the SDR in relation the US dollar 51 and (b) the scaling-up of activities under the respective project components (amounting to US$83 million) to increase all- season road access coverage. 50 US$155 million was requested and approved under the AF and was termed Scenario 2. However, only US$105 million was released and made available (termed Scenario 1, confirmed). See tables 2.5 and 2.6 of the AF Project Paper. 51 Of which, US$69 million was for revised designs to meet site and climate resilience requirements and US$3 million was for SDR depreciation. Page 39 of 48 The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS 1. The project involved the rehabilitation and maintenance of mostly unpaved (gravel surface) secondary and tertiary roads. In addition, it included the construction of new bridges for the secondary and tertiary road network for linking rural communities. The primary aim of these roads and bridges was social development, that is, to provide reliable and all-weather access to essential services. The motorized traffic on these roads was not substantial. Hence, the roads and bridges under the project were not subject to a formal economic cost-benefit analysis. However, a robust multi-criterion (tables 4.1 and 4.2) was adopted for the identification, selection, and subsequent prioritization of roads and bridges. Table 4.1. Detailed Scoring for the Prioritization of Rural Access Roads Table 4.2. Detailed Scoring for the Prioritization of Bridges Page 40 of 48 The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) 2. For unpaved roads (secondary and tertiary), economic viability was evaluated based on the CBI. 52 The same criterion was followed both for the original project and AF. There are no well-established criteria for determining the ‘opportunity cost’ threshold when ranking on the basis of the CBI. However, compared with other World Bank rural road projects, the overall CBI of project roads at appraisal and completion were found to be economically justifiable, that is, lower than US$490 per beneficiary. 53 3. At appraisal, the overall CBI for secondary roads after detailed design with new cost estimates was in the range of US$120 to US$240 per beneficiary, 54 with an average of US$207 per beneficiary, 55 which is well below the threshold. At completion, the CBI 56 reduced by almost 48 percent, at an average of US$108 per beneficiary, 57 due to the (a) appreciation of the US dollar against the Afghani 58 and (b) reduction in costs because of site requirements. 4. The average CBI for tertiary roads (paved and unpaved) and bridges after detailed design with new cost estimates varied in the range of US$44 (unpaved) to US$62 (paved) per beneficiary, 59 with an average of US$94 per beneficiary, which is well below the threshold. At completion, the average CBI was lower by 53 percent at an average of US$44 per beneficiary. 5. The CBIs at completion are acceptable, keeping in view the FCV context, that is, the lack of security, the underdeveloped construction industry, the capacity constraints of the PIUs, and currency devaluation. 6. Economic analysis using HDM-4 was performed for roads with traffic more than 300 vehicles per day that exceeded the minimum scoring (table 4.3). These roads were also considered for upgrading to a higher standard, including paving. The same criteria were used for the roads identified and selected under AF. The results of economic analysis and CBI at appraisal and at completion are presented in table 4.4. All roads exceeded the minimum threshold for CBI, NPV, and EIRR. Table 4.3. Prioritization Criteria for Higher Standard Construction 52 The CBI is the estimated cost divided by the estimated number of beneficiaries to establish the cost effectiveness with respect to the number of beneficiaries served. 53 A World Bank project in Morocco, this threshold was set to be US$490 per beneficiary. 54 AF Paper, annex 3. 55 According to the data sheet available. 56 Due to the lack of updated survey, the number of beneficiaries at completion was assumed to be the same as available at appraisal. 57 According to the revised costs received from the PIUs. 58 The contracts were made in local currency. 59 AF Paper, annex 3. Page 41 of 48 The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) 7. For paved secondary roads, economic viability was evaluated using HDM-4. 60 Despite a cost overrun after detailed design, the EIRRs for these roads at appraisal remained at least 18.3 percent 61 and increased by 48 percent at completion, 62 with a least value of 27 percent. The NPV at appraisal was US$276 million and increased by 10 percent at completion (that is, US$305 million). Table 4.4. Results of the Economic Analysis of Roads Road Section Based on Costs at Based on Costs after Based on Costs at Completion Appraisal Design NPV EIRR NPV/Co NPV EIRR NPV/Cos NPV EIRR NPV/Cost st t Farah-Lashjoyan 8.4 199.0 7.0 7.7 >100 6.4 8.6 >100 6.4 Qarabagh-Istalif 5.4 89.7 4.5 4.9 >100 4.1 5.5 >100 4.1 Zar Shakh Pagman- 11.4 87.9 4.5 10.3 >100 4.0 11.6 >100 4.1 Shakardara District Bangi-Ishkamish Lot 1 63.5 200.0 20.0 56.3 >100 17.8 63.8 No 18.2 Solution Taluqan-Namak Aab 13.3 80.3 4.5 12.3 >100 4.1 13.3 94.7 3.8 Road Zaranj to Charborjak 5.1 50.8 1.9 3.8 32.3 0.9 5.4 67.7 1.8 Emaran Kot to 1.4 30.9 0.9 0.6 18.3 0.3 1.5 38.5 0.9 Nowkhiz Grishk to Nawzad- 15.7 200.0 7.0 14.5 >100 4.4 31.3 96 5.8 Phase 1 and 2 63 28 3.7 (DBST 64) Haji Mohammad Shah 9.9 200.0 7.2 9.1 >100 4.3 9.9 >100 6.0 village (Kandahr-Spen Boldak highway to Zayarat e Zakar Sharef 8.8 3.8 Pol-e-Kama to Bar Kash 3.7 34.2 1.1 2.3 22.5 0.5 4.1 42.0 1.1 Kot Shibirghan to Darzab 34.9 119.8 6.4 29.3 >100 5.5 33.2 >100 5.5 road Daykundi to Shahrstan 0.95 24.4 0.7 1.0 31.1 0.9 2.1 27.1 0.7 - Phase 1 and 2 65 Chardara to Qala-e-Zal 11.4 73.3 4.4 10.2 91.2 4.0 11.6 84.1 4.1 Lot 1 Safid Sang to Kabul 3.0 38.0 1.8 2.4 37.6 1.5 2.9 41.2 1.6 Gardiz Road Sayed to Feroz 6.8 90.9 5.0 6.2 >100 4.6 7.0 >100 4.7 Nakhcher 60 Rerun on the available files, with only updated costs at completion. Other factors remained unchanged. 61 AF Paper, annex 3. 62 Due to the lack of an updated survey, traffic at completion was assumed to be the same as available at appraisal. 63 At completion, evaluated in total according to the available HDM-4 files. 64 Double Bituminous Surface Treatment 65 At completion, evaluated in total according to the available HDM-4 files. Page 42 of 48 The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Road Section Based on Costs at Based on Costs after Based on Costs at Completion Appraisal Design NPV EIRR NPV/Co NPV EIRR NPV/Cos NPV EIRR NPV/Cost st t Sya Sang to Cement 0.9 64.4 3.2 0.8 96.8 2.9 0.9 76.3 3.0 Khana Kunduz-archi Lot 2 17.6 107.4 5.3 14.3 >100 4.8 16.0 >100 4.8 Zaranj City-Sharshila- 11.2 >100 – 11.7 >100 5.9 Kang District 10.7 4.0 Qala-e-Now to 9.1 >100 10.4 >100 4.4 Abkamari Zarghon Shahr - Waza 3.2 28.6 3.6 31.8 1.1 Khaw Lot 1 and 2 Noburja to Rashidian 1.7 28.7 1.7 28.7 0.7 and Nawara Dare-e-Pich to Chapa 40.6 >100 40.6 >100 7.3 Daraa Nili to Sharistana 8.9 40.7 8.8 40.7 1.6 Total 213 276.0 305.0 Note: a. Completion cost was not available, hence evaluated on cost at design. Page 43 of 48 The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS 1. Afghanistan is a landlocked and mountainous country. Most of its population live in rural areas, and the rural areas are located in valleys and on the banks of rivers. Rural people are mostly involved in agricultural activities. The rural areas are isolated and mostly disconnected from the districts and capital of the country. Therefore, people of the rural areas are mostly suffering from lack of connectivity. They are not connected to the health and education centers and market areas. It is difficult and expensive for people in rural areas to transport their agricultural products to local markets. One of the main factors contributing to poverty in the rural areas is accessibility. 2. NEEP and NRAP were able to provide safe and all-year-round/all-season roads to thousands of households who are living in isolated rural areas. Rehabilitation/construction of rural roads and rural bridges are vital for rural communities, especially for those who are living in mountainous and valley areas. Rural roads reduced travel time, increased the number of trips of rural people, and enhanced their livelihood. 3. ARAP is the only national project of the country that constructed rural roads in Pamir of Badakhshan at a latitude of 4,600 m from sea level and Nuristan Province at a latitude of 4,000 m from sea level. No other project of a government entity has been able to construct roads for the needy rural people of these provinces. 4. ARAP, as one of the Afghanistan Government’s national projects, covered 34 provinces of Afghanistan. ARAP is one of the projects that has been implemented successfully. Before ARAP, none of the projects of NEEP/NRAP was implemented in 34 provinces. This was due to the accurate design of the project as lessons from previous projects were considered during the design of ARAP. Moreover, the human and technical and managerial capacity, which was embedded and enhanced in the program, was used properly and efficiently for the implementation of ARAP. Support, technical assistance, and cooperation of the World Bank task team was also good during implementation of the project. The World Bank task team and PIUs had good and supportive relations during project implementation. 5. The team at the PIU level established good relations with the Ministry of Finance and Parliament commissions, especially the Finance and Budget Commission of Parliament, and this relationship was maintained throughout implementation of the project. Relationships with Community Development Councils (CDCs), Districts Development Agencies (DDAs), and districts and provincial governments was good throughout implementation of the project. Timely updates and reports were provided to all stakeholders. The support of implementing ministries was strong throughout project implementation. All these relations and support resulted in successful implementation and completion of the project. 6. The technical, managerial, and institutional capacity, which was established, developed, and maintained in the implementing ministries, was tangible and useful for the ministries. 7. The maintenance procedures, guidelines, and practices, which were initiated by the ARAP team, are the most effective, accountable, and reliable system in the road sector of the country. Page 44 of 48 The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS • Project Paper for Afghanistan Rural Access Project (ARAP), June 11, 2012 • Project Paper for ARAP (Additional Financing), June 13, 2017 • Restructuring Paper for ARAP, March 4, 2018 • Restructuring Paper for ARAP, March 6, 2020 • Country Partnership Framework for Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, October 2, 2016 • Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund Grant Agreement • Afghanistan National Development Strategy (2008–2013) • Survey Report on the Follow-up Assessment of the ARAP, September 14, 2017 • Draft Final Report ARAP Beneficiary Satisfaction Survey, December 2020 • Draft Client Project Closure Report (PCR) for ARAP, June 2020 • Aide Memoires and Implementation Status and Results Reports for ARAP, 2012–2020. Page 45 of 48 The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) ANNEX 7. PROJECT PICTURES 66 Figure 7.1. Bridge Connecting Communities Figure 7.2. Bridge Providing All-Weather Connectivity Figure 7.3. All-Weather Paved Road Figure 7.4. All-Weather Paved Road Figure 7.5. Communities Inaugurating a Completed Figure 7.6. Consultation Sessions with Females Road 66 Source: World Bank project team Page 46 of 48 The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) ANNEX 8. SUMMARY OF BENEFICIARY SURVEY 1. This survey was carried out by an independent consultant and covered all nine regions of Afghanistan, where at least two subprojects in each region were selected for beneficiary survey. A total of 108 interviews, or 6 interviews per subproject, and 18 focus group discussions, or 2 per subproject were conducted in all nine regions. 2. The survey results were disaggregated by gender, age, and project-affected persons versus ordinary beneficiaries. The distribution of female to male respondents was 21 percent and 79 percent, respectively. Female beneficiaries were found to be more satisfied compared to male beneficiaries. From the age point of view, the results showed that older beneficiaries are the most satisfied, while the younger beneficiaries were the least satisfied age group. Project-affected persons made up at least 26 percent of the interview respondents. The affected people were slightly less satisfied compared to ordinary beneficiaries. Overall Satisfaction of Beneficiaries Figure 8.1. Overall Satisfaction Scores 67 5.00 4.60 3.95 3.84 3.85 3.83 4.00 3.74 3.00 2.00 1.00 - Overall Relevance Effectiveness Efficiency Impact Sustainability Satisfaction Score Satisfaction by Gender Figure 8.2. Distribution of Male and Female Respondents 21% 79% Male Female 67 Afghanistan Rural Access Project Beneficiary Satisfaction Survey – Final Report, December 2020 Page 47 of 48 The World Bank Afghanistan Rural Access Project (P125961) Figure 8.3. Satisfaction Scores by Gender 5.00 4.53 4.85 3.93 4.06 3.81 3.92 3.88 3.73 3.71 3.87 3.80 3.91 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 - Overall Relevance Effectiveness Efficiency Impact Sustainability Satisfaction Male Female Page 48 of 48