The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report MX Social Protection System (P147212) MX Social Protection System (P147212) LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN | Mexico | Social Protection & Jobs Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2015 | Seq No: 10 | ARCHIVED on 11-Jun-2019 | ISR37250 | Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Finance, BIENESTAR/PROSPERA, SEDESOL Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 24-Oct-2014 Effectiveness Date: 17-Feb-2015 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 15-Feb-2017 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 24-Mar-2017 Original Closing Date: 28-Jun-2019 Revised Closing Date: 30-Jun-2021 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The proposed Project Development Objectives are to support the Government’s effort to: (i) increase access of PROSPERA beneficiaries to social and productive programs, and (ii) develop instruments for an integrated social protection system. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Component 1 - Support to the PROSPERA Program and its linkage with social and productive programs:(Cost $317.52 M) Component 2 - Strengthening the Social Protection System:(Cost $31.60 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions This ISR is based on the Borrower’s latest progress report (period June-December 2018), which reflects that the achievement of the PDO remains on track (majority of the PDIs achieving or surpassing their final target) and the actual disbursement rate of the project ahead of schedule (at 95.4% as of May 2019). Following the recent transition in the administration, the Government is currently evaluating and setting its priorities in social policy, to determine if and how these can be supported by the project. 6/11/2019 Page 1 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report MX Social Protection System (P147212) Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic -- Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- Substantial Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program -- High High Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Substantial Substantial Fiduciary -- Moderate Moderate Environment and Social -- Low Low Stakeholders -- Substantial Substantial Other -- -- -- Overall -- Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes 1. Support Govt efforts to increase access of PROSPERA beneficiaries to social & productive programs IN00706924 ►# of PROSPERA beneficiaries that participate in social programs (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 465,842.00 1,079,298.00 1,797,097.00 1,174,811.00 Date 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 The large increase in the number of PROSPERA beneficiaries that participate in social programs is mostly explained by the coordination with the Social Pensions for the Elderly Program (PPAM), which resulted in Comments: the inclusion of additional members of PROSPERA beneficiary families in PPAM. IN00706941 ►# of PROSPERA beneficiaries that participate in productive programs (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 14,370.00 318,217.00 318,217.00 236,000.00 Date 30-Jun-2014 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 The numbers for the end of 2018 are not currently available. Most of the productive programs did not Comments: share their registries of beneficiaries, which impeded the calculation of the indicator for 2018. IN00706942 6/11/2019 Page 2 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report MX Social Protection System (P147212) ►Direct project beneficiaries (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 25,000,000.00 25,420,311.00 25,420,311.00 25,000,000.00 Date 30-Jun-2014 29-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 IN00706943 Female beneficiaries (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 52.80 53.70 53.70 52.80 2. Support Government's efforts to develop instruments for an integrated social protection system IN00706925 ►# of instruments for an integrated social information system implemented (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 Date 30-Jun-2014 15-Oct-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 The 2018 data reported shows that seven instruments have been completed. The instruments reported as completed are: 1. Registry of Beneficiaries (PUB); 2. Targeting mechanism; 3. Social Registry; 4. Comments: Catalogue of Social Programs; 5. Business Intelligence Tool; 6. Data Science Lab; and 7. Geographic Information System. The instrument that hasn't been finalized is the Back-Office Dashboard. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component 2 - Strengthening the Social Protection System IN00706945 ►% of municipalities that report the executed FISMDF in the integrated information system (MIDS-SFU) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 63.00 98.05 73.00 80.00 Date 04-Jul-2017 18-Jan-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 IN00706947 ►% of municipal FAIS liaison (enlaces) that completed capacity building activities (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 30.00 68.50 58.00 70.00 Date 04-Jul-2017 19-Jan-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 IN00706949 ►Development of a planning system (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 6/11/2019 Page 3 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report MX Social Protection System (P147212) Value No system in place System designed System designed Consolidated system Date 04-Jul-2017 15-Oct-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 IN00706951 ►Number of services provided by the Integrated Social Information System (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 3.00 6.00 9.00 Date 30-Dec-2016 15-Oct-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 The six services that SEDESOL reported that are provisioned already are: 1. Intake of beneficiary registries 2. I ntake of Unique Questionnaires of Socioeconomic Information Comments: (CUIS) 3. Review of Matched records of beneficiary registries; 4. Quantification of potential beneficiary population; 5. Thematic maps; and 6. Analysis of Poverty Threshold of Potential Beneficiaries. Component 1 - Support to the PROSPERA Program and its linkage with social and productive programs IN00706944 ►% of PROSPERA beneficiaries in Q1 and Q2 (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 68.50 68.97 68.97 71.00 Date 31-Dec-2010 15-Oct-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 This indicator is updated every two years with Mexico's National Income and Expenditure Survey (ENIGH). The latest ENIGH available is 2016, published in the summer of 2017. The ENIGH 2018 will Comments: become available in summer (Jul-Aug) of 2019 and the indicator will then be updated again. IN00706946 ►% of PROSPERA’ students that transition to upper secondary (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 65.00 73.23 72.84 73.00 Date 31-Dec-2013 15-Oct-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 IN00706948 ►Curriculum for PROSPERA personnel capacity building updated (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target No evaluation of new No evaluation of new Evaluation of the new Value None curriculum available curriculum available curriculum Date 31-Dec-2013 15-Oct-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 PROSPERA informed the Bank that resources were not available to perform the external evaluation of the new curriculum that is being delivered to PROSPERA's staff. The new administration will have to revise Comments: this and decide whether they will evaluate the curriculum in 2019. IN00706950 ►% of PROSPERA beneficiaries that are aware of complementary social and productive programs (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 6/11/2019 Page 4 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report MX Social Protection System (P147212) Value 0.00 43.00 46.80 60.00 Date 31-Dec-2013 15-Oct-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 PROSPERA collects this information through a survey called Puntos Centinela. In 2017, Puntos Centinela was redesigned and the collection of the survey was delayed. This redesign of Puntos Centinela implied changes not only in the questions included in the survey, but also in the framing of certain questions. Comments: Thus, the indicator for 2017 (and for the next years) is not strictly comparable with previous years. The goals of the indicator were adjusted accordingly starting 2018 and onward to reflect this change. IN00706952 ►Number of certified bilingual promoters (promotores bilingues) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 136.00 197.00 200.00 160.00 Date 04-Jul-2017 15-Oct-2018 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 IN00706953 ►% of citizen's demands received that are resolved within the time period established in the Protocol (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 90.00 99.00 90.00 Date 04-Jul-2017 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 IN00706954 ►% of female PROSPERA beneficiaries that participate in social programs (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 60.00 63.30 55.00 Date 09-Nov-2017 29-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 IN00706955 ►% of female PROSPERA beneficiaries that participate in productive programs (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 54.50 54.50 50.00 Date 09-Nov-2017 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2021 The data for the end of 2018 is not currently available. Comments: Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed 6/11/2019 Page 5 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report MX Social Protection System (P147212) P147212 IBRD-84470 Effective USD 350.00 350.00 0.00 320.29 29.71 92% P147212 IBRD-88230 Effective USD 300.00 300.00 0.00 300.00 0.00 100% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P147212 IBRD-84470 Effective 24-Oct-2014 19-Nov-2014 17-Feb-2015 28-Jun-2019 30-Jun-2021 P147212 IBRD-88230 Effective 29-Jan-2018 26-Mar-2018 30-Apr-2018 30-Jun-2021 30-Jun-2021 Cumulative Disbursements Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) P164152-Additional Financing for Social Protection System Project 6/11/2019 Page 6 of 6