88109 v.1
January 22, 2009
The External Environment for Developing Countries
January 2009
Overview
Unprecedented fall in global production during fourth quarter. Growth of global industrial
output tumbled to -15 percent (saar), with a virtual free-fall in evidence across countries in November
and December. The contraction is strikingly similar across the world (-15% in the United States, Europe
and Russia; -20% in Japan, -12% in China and -9% in Brazil). This development points to the potential
for a large-scale 5 percent decline in world GDP during the fourth quarter (saar), while a similar decline
could characterize the first quarter of 2009. This would imply an outright fall in world GDP for 2009,
even in light of a modest rebound in the second half of the year—and would represent a full percentage
point markdown to the GEP-2009 forecasts prepared in November.
Global industrial production ...while worries about recession and
plummets into 4th quarter of 2008... banks push markets lower in January
manufacturing production, ch% (saar) equity market indices (LCU)* Sep-15-2008 = 100.
15
Developing 110
10
100
5 DJIA (USA)
90 DAX (Germany)
0
World
80
-5
-10 70
OECD
-15 60
MSCI (Emerging Markets)
TOPIX (Japan)
-20 50
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09
Source: DEC Prospects Group. Source: Thomson/Datastream, Morgan Stanley (*USD index).
World trade volumes now contracting sharply. Export volumes dropped during the last three
months in the United States, Japan, Europe and a large number of developing countries (including
countries as diverse as Mexico, India and Jordan). The plunge in trade values is sharper still, as
commodity prices almost halved over the past three months.
Oil price projections for 2009 cut to $48/bbl. Though the long-term forecast of $75/bbl has not
been altered, oil prices are now expected to remain below $60/bbl through 2011. Consistent with earlier
research (showing a close correlation between grain and oil prices when the latter exceeds $50/bbl, but
little correlation below that level), grain prices have not followed the recent sharp falloff in oil. And
following eight consecutive months of decline that reduced metals prices by one-half, these prices were
up modestly in January.
Financial markets stabilize in past ten weeks. After dramatic declines in the first six weeks
following the Lehman failure, financial markets have remained volatile, but without clear direction. EM
spreads narrowed slightly and interbank rates eased. December and January saw the first EM
sovereign bonds issued in three months. Yet there is serious risk of a second wave of banking
problems in response to the sharp fall in economic activity and associated increase in bankruptcies.
This monthly brief was prepared by a team of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG), led by Hans
Timmer, and comprising Mick Riordan (G-3 countries, foreign exchange, overall edits), John Baffes (trade), Betty Dow
and Shane Streifel (primary commodities), Eung Ju Kim (finance), Cristina Savescu (production) and Gauresh
Rajadhyaksha (high-frequency data and Annex). The note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by
the World Bank Group.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 2
Global Indicators
Global Indicators
(Percentage change per annum, unless otherwise specified)
2006 2007 2008e 2009f
GDP volume: World 4.0 3.7 2.5 0.9
Memo item: World GDP at PPP weights 5.0 4.9 3.6 1.9
High-income countries 2.9 2.4 1.3 -0.1
Developing countries 8.8 9.7 6.3 4.5
Industrial production: World 4.5 4.4 3.0 ...
High-income countries 2.9 2.4 0.7 ...
Developing countries 8.8 9.7 8.5 ...
Export volume (GNFS): World 9.8 7.5 6.2 -2.1
High-income countries 8.6 6.2 5.9 -3.7
Developing countries 13.2 10.8 7.0 2.1
Trade Prices ($): Manufacturing (MUV) 1.6 5.5 9.0 2.1
Oil ($/bbl) 64.3 71.1 97.0 101 47.8 74.5
Non-oil commodities 29.1 17.0 22.4 -23.2
Nominal interest rates:
$LIBOR (percent p.a.) 5.2 5.3 3.3 1.9
LIBOR (percent p.a.) 3.1 4.3 4.9 3.8
Financial flows
FDI ($billion) 365 532 480
Gross Capital flowsa ($billion) 494 652 371 377
Equity placement ($bn) 111 194 47 51
Bond financing ($bn) 137 146 69 73
Lending ($bn) 246 312 254 232
Source: DECPG, January 2009. Estimates and projections based on GEP-2009, released 12-9-2008.
Note(s): a. Gross inflows2008 are preliminary. Figures in bold represent changes this month.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 3
United States
U.S. employment losses in 2008 Households hit hard. U.S. firms’ adjustment to
sum to 2.6 million...worst since 1945 the quick deterioration of demand has shifted from
change in non-farm employment, ‘000 shortening the workweek to scaling-back production,
200
100
3m ma change to cutting staff. Some 524,000 jobs were shed during
December, on the back of 584,000 in the preceding
0
month, carrying employment loss for the year to 2.6
-100
million, the worst since 1945. Rising unemployment
-200 (at 7.2% in December up from 4.9% a year earlier)
-300 and fears of joining the dole queue have been
-400 important factors in dampening consumer spending.
monthly change
The holiday shopping season was reported by
-500
retailers as the “worst in forty years”, and sales
-600
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08
dropped a large 2.7% in December, 25% during the
Source: U.S. Department of Labor. fourth quarter (saar), auguring a large falloff in GDP
growth in the final quarter of the year.
Falling exports, orders and
production pressure U.S. GDP Exports add to growth pressures. Robust
export volumes, durable goods orders and IPmfg, ch% saar U.S. export performance (given strong demand in
10 40
Production [L]
Export volumes [R] developing countries) provided support for the
30
5 economy through the third quarter of 2008,
20 contributing a full 2.8- and 1 points of growth in the
0
10 second and third quarters. But as OECD partners
-5 0 succumbed to recession and conditions across
-10 emerging markets weakened rapidly, U.S. export
-10 volumes moved quickly from growth of 30% as of
Durable goods orders [R] -20
-15 August to decline of 32% in November (saar). This
-30
stunning turnaround in trade is echoed in
-20 -40 manufacturing output (off 17% in the fourth quarter
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08
(saar)), and is likely to continue, given a falloff by
Source: Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve. fully one-third in durable goods orders in November.
Interbank market rates- and
yield on ten-year note easing Rates ease...still no lending. Following the set
of actions by the Fed at the December FOMC
Fed Funds target- and effective rates; Libor and T-note 10 yr
6 meeting, the decline in interbank rates (both
LIBOR 6 months domestic and international) picked up momentum.
5 The effective Federal Funds rate moved from a
T-note 10-year
4
recent peak (post Lehman) of 2.64% on September
16 to 0.09% on January 9; in like fashion 6-month
3 LIBOR eased from 4.88% in early October to 1.40%
on January 20. This is good news, suggesting that
2
Fed Funds Target banks have resumed lending to one another. The
1 “bad news” is, they are not lending to commercial
Fed Funds Effective
and industrial entities as well as households,
0
Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 sustaining the year-long credit crunch.
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 4
Japan
Japan’s exports and production point to Exports and production sink. Japan’s exports
severe 4th quarter downturn contracted sharply in November, falling 13% (m/m)
export volumes and manufacturing output, ch% saar on declining imports from the United States, Europe,
10 30
Export volumes [R] China and several East Asia trade partners. A
5 20 cumulative 15% appreciation of the yen/dollar rate
0 beginning in September has only made the situation
10
-5 more difficult for Japanese exporting firms. On an
0 annualized basis, export volumes dropped almost
-10
30% (saar) in November, the worst performance
-10
-15 since March 2001. The falloff in trade is reflected in
Industrial production [L]
-20 -20 factory output (down 8% in November (m/m) and a
full 20% (saar)), coming to dampen business
-25 -30 expectations to new lows (Reuters Tankan business
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08
forecasts halved from -19 to -38 for the first quarter
Source: Bank of Japan and Japan Cabinet Office.
of 2009). And trade prospects appear grim—new
orders plummeted 58% in November (saar).
Household spending turns to the
doldrums in the last months of 2008 Households retrench. Spillover of weaker
household expend, retail sales [L]; Tokyo consumer confidence [R] economic activity to the labor market is now in
3 50
HH spending [L] evidence—the jobless rate backed up from 3.7%-to
2 45 3.9% in November, while job offers-per-applicant fell
Retail sales [L]
through the 0.80 ratio for the first since 2002. This
1 40 has pressured Japanese consumer confidence, with
sentiment in Tokyo tumbling below a 30 reading for
0 35 the first time since the index was compiled in 1998.
After making strong contributions to Japan’s GDP
-1 30 growth in early 2008 (consumption grew 3.6% in the
Consumer confidence [R] first quarter (saar)), retail sales and household
-2 25 spending data now point to renewed decline,
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08
suggesting a poor GDP outturn for the final quarter
Source: Japan Cabinet Office. of 2008—adding to the weight of the emerging global
Yen strength on unwinding recession.
“carry trades” supports BOJ ease
Yen/USD rate (inverse) [right]; TIBOR and JGB 10-year [left] Yen strength allows BOJ ease. The Bank of
2.0 85 Japan eased policy interest rates by 20 basis points
to 0.1% in mid-December, and has since been
1.8 90 expanding its tools for smoothing the flow of credit to
JGB- ten year [L]
1.5 95 firms as the recession deepens. The BOJ is now
buying commercial paper, and is likely to add
1.3 100 purchases of corporate bonds, helping to underpin
Yen/dollar (inverse) [R]
1.0 105
markets for lenders to underwrite more debt and
ease a portion of the credit squeeze. The strength of
0.8 110 the yen, though crimping exports, has given the BOJ
TIBOR 6 months [L]
room to ease and should be a supportive factor for
0.5 115
Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 pumping more liquidity into the financial system.
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 5
Euro Area
European confidence plummets while European confidence at lows. Economic
ECB asesses economic damage prospects have dimmed rapidly over the fourth
Euro Area consumer confidence [L]; IFO overall [R] quarter. Strong exports have given way to sharp
0 115
decline (the quickest falloff in more than 8 years in
IFO overall [R]
-5 110 November); consumers reigned in spending as labor
market conditions worsened (unemployment
-10 105
increased for the first in 3 years in Germany in
-15 100 December) with Euro Zone retail trade dropping for a
6th month in November, down 1.5% (y/y). Moreover
-20 95
banks remain plagued by large-scale losses (e.g.
EC Consumer confidence [L]
-25 90 Deutsche Bank’s $9.3 billion Q-4 shortfall), and the
ECB has been less aggressive than the Federal
-30 85
Reserve in promoting alternative measures to boost
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08
needed credit flows. EC consumer sentiment fell to
Source: Eurostat-- Thomson/Datastream.
an all-time low of -30 from -8.6 a year earlier, while
the IFO headline index plummeted to 88 in
Production now in sharp decline December from 108 during December 2007.
across the Euro Area
manufacturing production, ch% (saar) Output in effective free-fall. German factory
10
Germany
orders dropped 6% in November (m/m) carrying the
5 annualized decline in orders to a shocking 40% in
Euro Area the three months to November (saar). Weakening
0
domestic demand and fading exports have turned
-5 factory output deeply negative across Europe.
Germany and France showed output declines of
-10 3.5% and 3.1% during November (m/m) respectively,
Italy
-15 carrying annualized falloffs to 17.2% and 18.4%
France (saar). Italy, also pressured by poor exports and
-20 falling household outlays has seen production
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08
contract by a full 20% (saar). PMI surveys for the
Source: Eurostat. Euro Area underline downturns in both
manufacturing and services sectors. Manufacturing
Euro interbank rates fall quickly activity dropped to an index level of 33.9 from
adding pressure on the currency November’s 35.6; services activity fell to a reading of
Euribor and Bund- 10 yr [L]; USD per Euro [R]
6.0 1.62
42.1 from 42.5.
5.5
EURIBOR 6 months [L] 1.54 Rates come down. Although responding with
5.0
apparently “less commitment” to the quick
4.5 1.46 deterioration of economic and financial conditions in
4.0 the Zone, the ECB lowered policy rates by 50 basis
Bund, ten- year [L]
3.5 1.38 points to 2%—the fourth reduction in as many
3.0 months in early January. Inter-bank rates for euro-
USD per Euro [R] 1.30 denominated loans have fallen from near 5% in mid-
2.5
September to 2.5% by mid-January, placing some
2.0 1.22
Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08
downward pressure on the currency. M. Trichet has
Source: Thomson/Datastream. called for further rate cuts in March.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 6
Industrial Production
Developing countries’ IP plunges, Developing countries slow. High frequency
mirroring high-income countries data show that developing countries have been now
real IP (3m/3m saar) affected quite adversely by the simultaneous
16 recession engulfing the OECD high-income
Developing countries
12 countries. Moreover the trade finance squeeze in
8 September and October contributed to disappointing
4 performance. For developing economies in
0
aggregate, industrial production contracted 8.5% in
-4
the three months to November (saar), compared to
High-income growth of 7.2% the previous year, this as OECD
-8
output retrenched 12.2%. The contraction is more
-12
pronounced in East Asia and the Pacific and Europe
-16
Jan-04 Jan -05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08
and Central Asia, but signs of weakness are now
emerging across all developing regions.
Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
Production points to softer GDP outturns
East Asia and Central and Eastern for final quarter of 2008. Industrial output
Europe hit hardest contracted sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008 in a
real IP (3m/3m saar) large number of economies, painting a grim picture
30 for overall economic performance in the final quarter
of the year. Synchronized recession in high-income
20
countries undercut demand for exports. Tight credit,
ECA
10 weak domestic consumer sentiment and lower
appetite for borrowing compounded the problem,
0
causing demand for autos and durable goods, in
East Asia, excl China
-10 particular, to tumble. The output contraction is
-20 particularly severe in East Asia and in Central
Europe which produce autos or high tech goods and
-30
export their products to high-income markets, in
Jan-01 Jan -02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG. particular to the United States and Europe.
Dramatic IP contraction The downturn is widespread. In almost half of
in export intensive economies the 76 countries for which monthly production data is
real IP (6m/6m saar) available, output declined at a double digit
30
Czech Repu blic Taiwan
20 annualized pace in the three months through
10
November. The contraction was sharpest among
Asian NIEs such as Taiwan (down 47.6% (saar)),
0
Hong Kong (31.5%), and Korea (25.4%); and for
-10
Turkey Hungary countries in Central and Eastern Europe such as
-20
Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Turkey and Hungary
-30 all experiencing declines within a range of 25- to
Korea
-40 30%. China’s industrial output also lost momentum,
-50 contracting 11.7% in the three months to November,
Jan-99 May-00 Sep-01 Jan-03 May-04 Sep-05 Jan-07 May-08 the sharpest falloff since at least 1990.
Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 7
International Trade
Major OECD imports contract World trade in decline. Following on the record
in step with domestic demand decline in industrial output across high-income and
import volumes: U.S, Japan, Germany and U.K. ch% 3mma y/y developing economies, world trade volume fell to
15.0
12.5 negative territory in the final months of 2008. Among
industrial countries, compression of domestic
10.0 Germany
demand—notably household outlays in the United
7.5
U.K. States and Europe, and investment in Japan—has
5.0
yielded an accelerating contraction in import
2.5
volumes. U.S. imports, falling since 2007 (on a
0.0
smoothed year-on-year basis) dropped at a faster
-2.5
Japan 5.2% rate in November. European imports are in
-5.0
United States decline, with Germany showing a marked easing
-7.5
over the year, and U.K demand falling at a 6% pace.
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08
Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream. Japan’s volumes returned to negative territory as of
October. Exports from developing countries are now
being affected by this development, and declines are
Developing exports in decline
now common across a broad spectrum of
export volumes: China, India, Mexico and Jordan ch% 3mma y/y
35 economies.
25 Developing exports hit hard. Exports from
China
developing countries (adjusted for price changes, i.e.
15 volumes) are being affected by the unfolding global
recession, as import demand from the high-income
Mexico India
5 countries contracts, and intake of raw materials and
semi-finished products among the larger developing
-5 countries (e.g. China) is coming into play. Depending
Jordan
on the partner composition of export markets, as well
-15 as the commodity mix of outbound shipments,
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08
outright decline or slowing of export growth now
Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream. ranges from a halving of gains in China to 12% in
November from 24% as recently as May 2008 to
decline of 10-12% for countries such as Jordan and
U.S. trade balance improves sharply
India, highly exposed to the fading European market.
in November on plummeting oil price
goods balance, and oil- and non-oil balances ($bn)
0 U.S. trade deficit improves. The sharp falloff in
international oil prices is starting to make notable
-20 changes in trade balances across the world’s major
Oil balance
importers. During November, the U.S. deficit on
goods trade improved by $17 billion on the month,
-40
Non-oil balance as the balance on oil trade moved from deficit of $32
billion in October to $19 billion. As further energy
-60 price declines are in the pipeline, further
Goods balance improvements in the trade balance are in the offing,
-80 augmented by the continued fall in import volume.
J a n- 0 7 Ap r-0 7 J u l-0 7 O ct -07 J a n- 0 8 A pr-0 8 J u l-0 8 O ct -08
Source: Department of Commerce.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 8
Commodity Prices
Oil prices appear to stabilize Oil prices weak on falling demand. Oil prices
amid OPEC production cuts fell to near $34/bbl on Christmas Eve and have since
$/bb l mb/d
recovered to above $40/bbl. Declining demand and
135 31 rising non-OPEC supply continue to push oil into
125
115 30 inventories, despite OPEC efforts to reduce the
105 surplus. OPEC agreed to cut output by 2.2mb/d as of
29
95 OPEC-11 Production January 1st, bringing total cuts since September
85 (x Angola) [R]
75
28 2008 to 4.2mb/d. Saudi Arabia is reported to be
65 27 reducing production aggressively, offering to cut
55 output still-further if necessary. This has helped lift
45 Oil price [L s cale] 26
35 relative prices for medium/heavy sour crudes. In
25 25 addition, crude storage in the U.S mid-continent is at
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
record levels, such that the price of WTI—which
Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group. normally trades at a premium to Brent—has recently
traded at a discount of more than an $8/bbl.
Growth in U.S. Oil Demand (yr/yr)
Global oil demand falling. World oil
kb/d
Other consumption dropped slightly in 2008, the first yearly
1000 Resid decline since 1983. Demand fell sharply in the
Distillate
500 second half of the year, declining more-than 2% or
Gasoline
0
1.9mb/d in the fourth quarter, with all of the fall in the
OECD and Asia, including a marginal drop in China.
-500
U.S. demand is likely to have declined by 6% in
-1000 2008 with gasoline consumption down 3.3%.
Demand in September and October fell by nearly
-1500
2mb/d. IEA now projects world demand to fall
-2000 0.5mb/d in 2009, but other forecasts highlight
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 declines of up to 1mb/d.
Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.
Oil futures in steeper contango. Oil futures
prices have fallen sharply, particularly at the front
WTI Futures Prices - NYMEX
part of the curve—in line with spot prices. Contango
Monthly contract prices to Dec 2013
$/bbl on select dates in 2008-09 (near-by prices below forward prices) has
120 steepened, reflecting the large surplus of oil on the
Aug 29
110 market and dwindling availability of commercial
100 Sep 30 storage capacity—particularly in the United States.
90 The widening contango provides a financial incentive
80 to build stocks in evermore costly facilities, including
Oct 31
70 oil tankers. Frontline estimates that 80 million barrels
60 Jan 15 09 are being stored on the water, representing nearly 1
50 Dec 24 day of global oil consumption. Futures have risen on
40 investor expectations that OPEC will bring the
30 market back into balance in coming months and that
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 eventual recovery of demand will pull prices higher.
Source: NYMEX and DECPG Commodities Group.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 9
Agriculture price declines slow. Agriculture
Agriculture price declines begin to prices continued to fall in December, down 4%, but
2000=100
moderate declines were centered in a few commodities. The
350 largest drop was in rubber, off 28%, on lower crude
Fats & Oils oil prices and weak demand for vehicle tires.
300 Groundnut oil and soybean oil prices fell 19% and
Grains 10% respectively on lower demand and ample
250
supplies. The decline in grains prices moderated,
and is consistent with research that shows grains
200
and crude oil prices are closely linked above levels
150 of $50/bbl due to the effect of biofuels, but less
Other Food
closely correlated when oil prices fall below $50/bbl.
100 There were several price gains in December, notably
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
cocoa which climbed 17%, due to lower shipments
Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group. from Cote d’Ivoire, tied in turn to effects of ‘black
pod’ disease.
Metal prices rebound slightly
Metals prices up in January. Metals prices
on index rebalancing rose slightly in January, following further sharp
$/ton ‘ 000 tons
9,000 Copper price 4 50 declines in December—the 8th straight monthly drop
4 00 with average prices off nearly 50% over the period.
8,000
3 50 The rebound this year has been the result of
7,000
3 00 rebalancing of main commodity indices which has
6,000 2 50 benefited a number of metal prices. Otherwise global
5,000 2 00 demand remains very weak, notably in housing and
1 50 autos, but also manufacturing more broadly.
4,000
1 00 Inventories continue to surge for most metals as
LME stocks
3,000
50 consumers and processors draw down stocks.
2,000 0 Aluminum in particular is massively oversupplied.
5 6 7 08 09 Most metal prices have fallen deep into their cost
n-0 n-0 n-0 n- n-
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja
Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group. curves, prompting much news of production cuts and
project delays.
Global steel production plunging Steel production falls sharply. World steel
mn tons output dropped 19% (y/y) in November following a
50 12% decline in October. Since peaking in June
45 global steel output has plunged more than 25%.
40 China China accounted for 40% of the reduction, with other
Other Asia
35 Europe declines largely in the OECD, Russia and Ukraine.
FSU
30
Other
Steel prices plummeted in the second half of 2008
25 N America but are beginning to stabilize due to production cuts
20 and destocking. However, demand prospects for
15 2009 are bleak, especially in the important auto and
10 construction sectors. The reduction in steel output
5 affects raw material inputs, with coking coal prices
0 down nearly two-thirds, while iron ore contract prices
J an-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09
Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group. are expected to fall by some 40% during current
negotiations.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 10
International Finance
A difficult year for emerging
A difficult year. Though capital flows were up
market capital flows modestly from $10 billion to $16 billion in December,
G r o ss c a p it a l fl o w s t o e m e r g in g m a rk e t s flows for 2008 as a whole amounted to just $370
$ b illio n 2007 2008
billion—down 43% from the record $650 billion of 2007.
H1 Q3 Q4 T otal H1 Q3 Q4 Dec To t a l Of some encouragement, December saw the first EM
T otal 34 9 163 139 652 253 73 44 16 371 sovereign bond issued in three months, as Mexico
B o nd s 10 7 20 19 146 58 9 2 2 69
B a nks 15 6 101 55 312 150 62 42 14 254
brought a $2 billion 10-year global bond to market
E q uity 86 42 66 194 45 2 0 0 47 which placed successfully. Four EM sovereign issuers,
L a t . Am e ric a 69 54 32 156 56 13 10 5 79 Brazil, Colombia, the Philippines and Turkey, followed
B o nd s 31 6 8 45 17 1 2 2 20 in Mexico’s steps and sold $4.5 billion in early January,
E . E uro p e 15 6 45 46 247 101 35 21 4 158
B o nd s 50 5 9 64 32 8 0.1 0.1 40 taking advantage of stronger local demand and
A sia 93 47 47 188 69 15 8 4 91
B o nd s 18 5 1 23 7 0 .4 0 0 7
somewhat improved market conditions. Bond issuance
O t h e rs 31 16 14 61 27 10 5 3 43
amounted to $69 billion for 2008, 53% below the $146
Source: DECPG Finance Team. billion of 2007. Though banking credits held up well in
the first half of the year, lending declined sharply in the
Equities post modest gains second to register $254 billion, a near 20% falloff from
in December 2007 flows. Equities fell 76%, faltering at year-end.
15 percentage change (in local currency) Nov Dec
Equities tumbled. Following devastating declines
5 in October and November, global stock markets posted
-5 modest gains and equity fund outflows ceased during
-15 Oct December. But for 2008 all world bourses tumbled,
-25
erasing some $17 trillion in market valuation, as fears of
global recession and the credit squeeze led to sharp
-35
2008 sell-offs. Emerging markets declined 47% and mature
-45 markets fell 40%. The so-called BRIC countries were
-55 among the hardest hit, with Russia down 74%, and the
MSCI MSCI MSCI BRIC S&P 500 FTSE-100 Nikkei
Emerging Mature
remaining countries losing more-than half (Brazil off
Markets Markets 57.4%, India down 65.5% and China falling 53.2%).
Source: Bloomberg and DECPG Finance Team. Retreat from EM equity funds was in clear evidence,
with record net outflows of some $48.3 billion in 2008.
Sharp widening in EM bond spreads at
year-end 2008 Debt suffered in 2008. Though losses in EM
Yen/USD rate (inverse) [right]; TIBOR and JGB 10-year [left] equity were more notable, EM external debt
30 1000 performance suffered badly during 2008. Benchmark
EMBIG annual retruns [Left]
900 spreads closed the 2008 at 724 basis points, widening
20 800 459 basis points over the course of the year. Spreads
700
reached a seven-year high 890 points in late October,
10 600
reflecting escalating risk perceptions at that time. And
500
widening spreads were observed across the entirety of
0 400
the emerging market credit spectrum. Meanwhile, total
300
returns for 2008 amounted to -10.9%, posting net loss
-10 200
EMBIG spread [Right] 100
for the first since 1998. However, EM spreads tightened
-20 0 by more-than 70 basis points since mid-December, tied
Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 to modest improvement in the market environment.
Source: JPMorgan-Chase and DECPG Finance Team.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 11
Currencies
Dollar falls on Fed rate cut Abrupt changes in dollar/euro. In the last
until ECB reduction seen as sure tumultuous months, the dollar has exhibited a great
USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] deal of volatility—reacting to the release of (largely)
Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09
1.230 downbeat economic news, as well as to changes in
1.270 110 interest differentials, as the Fed, BOE, BOJ and the
1.310
106
ECB brought policy rates lower. Trading within a
1.350 wide 15% band against the euro, the dollar peaked
102
1.390 at $1.2454 on November 20, thereafter falling to
1.430
98 $1.4405 on December 17th only to recoup to $1.3137
1.470
USD/Euro (inverse) by January 15. The yen has been largely immune to
1.510 94
these developments, continuing to appreciate
1.550
yen/USD 90 against the greenback (from ¥97 to ¥90, or 7.2%)
1.590
over the same period, on a step-up in the unwinding
1.630 86
of yen-carry trades, as more and more funds are
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
being withdrawn from emerging market assets and
repatriated into yen.
Interest differentials well in favor
of stronger euro since November Interest rates and the economy. The Federal
USD Libor and EURIBOR (6 months), percent Reserve’s bold moves at the mid-December FOMC
6 meeting took markets aback, as the bank effectively
EURIBOR 6 months
moved to a “zero” interest rate policy (range of 0-to
5
0.25% on Fed Funds target), while announcing
massive financial engagement in Treasury-and
4
private sector markets to serve as catalyst for a
3 revival. And in reaction to rapid deterioration of
economic conditions at home, both the Bank of
2 England (cutting rates to 1.5%- the lowest since
USD LIBOR 6 months 1694) and the Bank of Japan (reducing policy rates
1 to 0.1%) joined in, with the GOJ saying it would
Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09
purchase up to ¥20 trillion ($25 billion) in shares of
Source: Thomson/Datastream.
financial institutions to bolster capital positions.
Finally, the ECB cut its policy rate by 50 basis points
Dollar mixed against EM currencies on January 15 to 2%. Expectation of this action had
LCU per USD indexes, Sept-15 2008=100 [*increase = weaker LCU] largely underpinned the dollar’s recent rebound.
135
Turkish lira
Brazilian real Russian rouble on downtrend. Emerging
130
market currencies have generally reacted to the
125
shifts in high-income policy interest rates and
120 economic conditions there in similar fashion to the
115
Korean won
euro—with the Brazilian real, Turkish lira and Korean
110 won recouping lost ground vis-à-vis the dollar, before
105 recent retrenchment. An exception has been the
Russian rouble
Russian rouble, which has continued to lose ground
100
since mid-December. Over 2009 to date the rouble
95
Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 has given up some 9.4%of its dollar value.
Source: Thomson/Datastream. .
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 12
Table A.1 Global industrial production growth
(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over previous month a/)
Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2008
2000 1998-07 2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec
World 100.0 2.7 3.7 4.5 4.4 3.3 0.5 -4.3 .. -1.4 -1.3 -3.2 ..
High-income countries 77.2 1.7 2.1 2.9 2.4 0.0 -2.8 -5.6 .. -1.9 -1.1 -3.4 ..
Industrial countries 72.7 1.7 2.0 3.1 2.6 -0.4 -3.1 -5.7 .. -1.9 -1.1 -3.3 ..
United States 25.1 2.1 3.3 2.2 1.7 0.4 -3.4 -8.9 .. -4.1 1.5 -0.6 ..
Japan 17.3 0.7 1.6 4.1 2.9 -1.7 -3.5 -4.6 .. 1.1 -3.4 -7.4 ..
Euro Area 22.9 1.8 0.9 3.4 2.8 -0.5 -4.7 -4.1 .. -1.9 -2.1 -3.2 ..
United Kindgom 4.1 0.1 -1.1 0.7 0.4 -2.2 -3.5 -5.6 .. -0.3 -1.6 -2.3 ..
Other high income 4.5 2.0 4.5 1.6 0.6 11.6 0.4 -2.5 .. -1.5 -1.8 .. ..
Hong Kong (China) 0.2 -3.4 2.4 2.4 -1.6 -12.5 -3.5 -10.2 .. 0.1 .. .. ..
Singapore 0.4 6.7 9.2 12.0 6.4 38.5 -39.3 1.8 .. 4.5 -8.5 3.0 ..
Taiwan (China) 1.1 5.2 3.4 4.6 8.2 -5.8 3.4 -11.1 .. -4.3 -5.6 -18.8 ..
Developing countries 22.8 5.9 8.3 8.8 9.7 10.4 8.8 -1.5 .. -0.1 -1.5 -2.7 ..
East Asia and Pacific 8.7 10.0 12.8 13.0 15.0 17.3 16.5 -0.4 .. -0.7 -1.4 -1.7 ..
China 6.3 13.4 15.7 16.5 17.7 19.0 20.2 0.2 .. 0.0 -1.9 -1.4 ..
Indonesia 0.9 1.1 1.9 -2.0 5.7 15.7 0.0 -8.8 .. -6.2 3.2 .. ..
Thailand 0.6 7.0 9.1 7.3 8.2 7.3 0.2 6.3 .. -2.8 0.5 -7.7 ..
Malaysia 0.5 5.1 3.6 5.0 2.1 0.9 -2.6 -7.0 .. -1.4 -1.3 -1.7 ..
Europe and Central Asia 3.2 4.6 5.3 7.6 6.9 5.6 3.1 -5.4 .. 0.9 -3.2 -6.6 ..
Russian Federation 1.0 4.2 5.4 6.5 6.3 3.3 9.3 1.2 .. 0.5 -3.0 -9.2 ..
Turkey 0.5 3.8 5.9 5.9 5.2 10.3 -8.5 -14.5 .. -4.0 -2.5 0.4 ..
Poland 0.6 6.5 4.7 11.8 9.5 15.6 1.8 -14.2 .. 3.6 -1.7 -4.6 ..
Czech Republic 0.2 5.3 7.3 11.0 8.8 6.2 3.8 -7.4 .. 4.0 -8.9 -9.1 ..
Latin America and Caribbean 6.2 1.2 4.0 4.3 4.4 0.7 -0.8 0.6 .. 0.4 -0.6 .. ..
Brazil 1.8 2.8 3.4 2.9 5.9 4.0 2.1 8.9 .. 1.8 -2.8 -5.2 ..
Mexico 1.7 .. 2.9 5.4 1.8 -1.5 -4.1 -3.4 .. -3.6 2.3 .. ..
Argentina 0.8 2.7 8.1 7.7 6.0 -0.2 -0.1 -2.6 .. -0.1 -1.6 -1.3 ..
Colombia 0.3 2.8 4.0 10.7 10.7 -10.7 0.1 -13.4 .. 6.7 .. .. ..
Middle East and North Africa 1.9 2.3 3.7 -0.5 -0.4 8.2 3.3 2.3 .. -0.6 0.1 .. ..
Saudi Arabia 1.2 0.4 4.9 -4.2 -4.7 10.3 6.5 6.8 .. -1.3 0.8 .. ..
Iran 0.4 0.7 3.4 -2.7 -2.9 10.9 2.2 6.0 .. 0.2 0.1 .. ..
Egypt 0.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Algeria 0.3 3.7 7.2 0.9 1.1 2.3 4.4 -0.8 .. -0.3 -0.2 .. ..
South Asia 1.6 6.8 8.9 10.6 9.2 9.2 0.9 -1.6 .. 1.5 -3.7 3.2 ..
India 1.3 6.7 7.9 10.5 9.9 8.0 -0.1 1.4 .. 1.8 -3.7 3.2 ..
Pakistan 0.2 7.6 14.9 10.6 5.6 18.5 5.1 -22.3 .. -0.7 .. .. ..
Bangladesh 0.1 6.8 12.6 11.1 6.1 9.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sri Lanka 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 2.2 4.5 3.7 5.5 1.3 6.7 .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Africa 0.4 2.2 3.6 4.8 4.2 -1.5 15.2 -10.0 .. -0.5 -0.4 -3.0 ..
Nigeria 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.2 -0.7 2.6 -7.6 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Memo:
OECD 75.9 1.8 2.2 3.3 2.7 -0.1 -3.0 -5.9 .. -1.8 -1.1 -3.4 ..
Developing excl. China 16.6 3.0 4.9 5.0 5.4 4.8 1.6 -2.3 .. -0.2 -1.3 .. ..
Developing oil exporters 2.9 0.1 2.2 -1.4 0.7 8.5 -0.5 -2.9 .. -2.7 1.1 .. ..
Dev. non-oil exporters 19.9 7.0 9.4 10.6 11.1 10.7 10.2 -1.3 .. 0.3 -1.9 -2.7 ..
Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
a
In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often
manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 13
Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries
(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change)
Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2008
1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec
Real GDP a
High-income countries 78.5 .. 2.9 2.6 .. 1.3 0.2 -0.5 .. .. .. .. ..
Industrial countries 75.4 .. 2.8 2.4 .. 1.6 0.4 -0.8 .. .. .. .. ..
United States 10.9 .. 2.8 2.0 .. 0.9 2.8 -0.5 .. .. .. .. ..
Japan 20.9 .. 2.0 2.4 .. 2.4 -3.7 -1.8 .. .. .. .. ..
Euro Area 27.2 .. 3.0 2.6 .. 2.6 -0.7 -0.8 .. .. .. .. ..
United Kindgom 6.2 .. 2.8 3.0 .. 1.5 0.0 -2.6 .. .. .. .. ..
Other high income 3.2 .. 5.9 6.1 .. -8.8 -5.0 8.4 .. .. .. .. ..
Hong Kong (China) 0.8 .. 7.0 6.4 .. -23.0 -8.8 27.4 .. .. .. .. ..
Singapore 0.4 .. 8.2 7.7 .. 15.7 -5.3 -6.8 .. .. .. .. ..
Taiwan (China) 1.4 .. 4.8 5.7 .. -11.9 -6.1 6.4 .. .. .. .. ..
Real merchandise imports b
High-income countries 100.0 .. 6.7 4.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Industrial countries 88.3 .. 6.2 2.9 .. 2.5 2.1 0.9 .. -0.2 .. .. ..
United States 23.8 8.2 5.7 1.3 .. -2.4 -4.1 -3.9 .. -3.2 4.4 .. ..
Japan 6.7 5.4 4.0 -0.4 .. 0.8 2.3 -0.3 .. 0.7 3.5 .. ..
Euro Area 37.1 .. 5.5 6.6 .. 6.8 7.8 5.6 .. 2.1 .. .. ..
United Kindgom 6.7 6.3 10.2 -4.4 .. 1.0 1.9 -1.8 .. -1.0 0.3 .. ..
Other high income 11.7 5.6 9.3 11.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Hong Kong (China) 4.1 6.6 10.1 10.4 .. 8.2 5.6 2.6 .. -0.5 11.9 .. ..
Singapore 2.3 5.2 11.2 6.3 .. 14.3 12.8 10.9 .. 8.3 -7.9 .. ..
Taiwan (China) 2.2 6.3 3.8 -0.3 .. 6.4 -3.6 -1.0 .. -11.6 -7.1 -2.5 ..
Import Prices c
High-income countries 100.0 .. 6.2 6.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Industrial countries 88.3 .. 6.6 7.1 .. 17.1 19.8 18.0 .. -3.3 .. .. ..
United States 23.8 -0.1 4.9 4.2 .. 14.1 19.1 17.6 .. -3.5 -5.4 -6.7 ..
Japan 6.7 -1.6 8.1 7.5 .. 23.6 25.3 31.2 .. -2.4 -1.6 .. ..
Euro Area 37.1 .. 9.0 8.2 .. 18.3 19.6 15.6 .. -4.1 .. .. ..
United Kindgom 6.7 -1.1 5.0 10.2 .. 11.9 13.5 8.7 .. -7.5 -7.5 .. ..
Other high income 11.7 -1.0 4.6 3.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Hong Kong (China) 4.1 -1.2 1.2 -0.3 .. 1.9 3.7 4.1 .. 0.7 -1.2 .. ..
Singapore 2.3 -0.2 7.5 3.5 .. 15.2 20.2 19.0 .. -4.0 -9.0 .. ..
Taiwan (China) 2.2 -1.6 7.6 8.0 .. 19.7 23.4 20.2 .. -5.2 -8.7 -6.7 ..
Real effective exchange rates d
Euro Area 33.5 1.7 0.9 4.1 4.9 7.5 8.6 5.5 -1.6 -2.3 -4.3 2.1 3.8
United States 14.4 -2.2 -2.7 -4.7 -4.0 -9.8 -9.5 -5.8 10.0 2.7 7.9 2.7 -2.0
Japan 7.4 -1.4 -8.9 -6.6 9.6 4.2 6.0 3.6 24.4 4.8 11.9 5.6 3.4
United Kindgom 5.4 -1.8 -0.2 2.1 -12.2 -8.8 -10.0 -11.8 -18.2 -2.1 -1.1 -8.0 -5.4
Canada 3.5 0.0 3.2 0.8 -8.2 5.8 -3.2 -10.4 -23.3 0.6 -9.9 0.2 -2.7
Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -4.4 -2.6 -5.0 -8.6 -9.6 -11.2 -10.5 -2.9 2.4 3.8 4.7 -3.9
Korea, Rep. 2.5 0.8 4.8 -2.0 -15.7 -8.6 -13.0 -12.7 -28.9 -7.1 -12.7 -6.2 1.6
Singapore 2.3 1.5 5.1 6.9 5.4 2.5 4.4 8.3 6.6 0.5 -1.1 -1.5 -1.4
Taiwan (China) 2.1 -1.8 0.1 -1.3 -3.7 -3.5 -2.3 -1.9 -7.2 -2.3 -2.7 -3.6 0.3
Switzerland 1.7 -1.0 -4.3 -4.9 1.7 1.1 2.0 0.0 3.7 1.2 5.1 -1.6 0.9
a/ Real GDP aggregated using 1995 weights.
b/ On a customs or BoP basis, as available. Weights are 1995 merchandise import: aggregate calculated as sum of components.
c/ Aggregate prices are implicit prices of aggregate US dollar value divided by aggregate constant 1995 dollar volume.
d/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 14
Table A.3 Global credit conditions
(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)
Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2008 Latest
1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec 21-Jan
Policy Rates
United States .. 3.44 4.96 5.02 1.93 3.16 2.09 1.96 0.52 1.01 0.39 0.17 0.18
Japan .. 0.33 0.24 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.55 0.74 0.50 0.42 0.30
Euro Area .. .. 2.76 3.84 3.89 4.00 4.00 4.23 3.34 3.86 3.43 2.73 2.50
United Kindgom .. 4.80 4.64 5.51 4.67 5.35 5.03 5.00 3.32 4.61 3.23 2.13 1.50
Ten year bond
United States .. 4.70 4.78 4.63 3.66 3.69 3.85 3.84 3.25 3.79 3.50 2.47 2.21
Japan .. 1.49 1.74 1.67 1.49 1.39 1.60 1.53 1.44 1.50 1.48 1.35 1.27
Euro Area .. .. 3.73 4.20 4.00 3.97 4.24 4.29 3.51 3.90 3.59 3.03 2.94
United Kindgom .. 4.77 4.48 5.01 4.52 4.50 4.80 4.70 4.07 4.46 4.15 3.59 3.37
Spreads (Basis points)b,c
Developing countries .. 399 198 197 406 295 281 337 710 661 711 758 697
East Asia and Pacific .. 247 180 161 355 257 253 303 608 583 616 626 589
China .. 82 64 71 166 140 139 157 229 235 223 230 204
Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Thailand .. .. 54 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Malaysia .. 129 84 87 201 131 135 161 377 308 428 396 353
Europe and Central Asia .. 286 149 158 370 237 237 296 709 635 705 786 702
Russian Federation .. 262 111 121 328 191 169 238 715 586 704 854 750
Turkey .. 404 223 214 383 292 312 336 593 594 592 592 511
Poland .. 99 59 61 159 108 104 131 293 242 325 310 305
Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Latin America and Caribbean .. 522 227 221 438 323 304 367 759 707 767 805 745
Brazil .. 551 233 180 301 258 214 252 480 494 469 478 428
Mexico .. 206 137 126 254 190 162 213 452 436 457 461 417
Argentina .. 2920 343 320 858 483 557 696 1698 1482 1782 1828 1629
Colombia .. 370 194 161 305 251 192 237 540 534 550 536 502
Middle East and North Africa .. .. 338 476 585 546 505 486 804 704 783 926 907
Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt .. .. 79 86 262 230 180 244 393 393 380 404 325
Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
d
South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Pakistan .. .. 199 283 1040 568 596 965 2031 1899 2058 2135 2034
Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa .. 390 266 288 452 402 338 318 749 650 779 819 708
South Africa .. 172 90 100 329 233 215 254 616 565 665 618 486
Nigeria .. .. 245 77 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Gross inflows e
Developing countries .. .. 494 683 371 105 148 73 44 18 10 16 ..
East Asia and Pacific .. .. 111 145 66 23 26 11 7 2 1 3 ..
Europe and Central Asia .. .. 179 252 158 37 64 35 21 13 5 4 ..
Latin America and Carribean .. .. 116 157 79 19 38 13 10 3 2 5 ..
Middle East and North Africa .. .. 16 15 25 5 13 6 2 0 0 1 ..
South Asia .. .. 42 69 25 16 4 4 1 0 1 1 ..
Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 30 46 17 6 4 4 4 0 1 2 ..
a/Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures, except the last month, which are the values reported on the mentioned date. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple
averages of the monthly figures.
b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.
c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.
d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.
e/In billions of US dollars.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 15
Table A.4 Commodity price indices
(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)
Weightsb Average 2008 2008 2008 2008
1990 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec
Energy .. .. 220.9 244.8 342.0 331.1 417.8 406.0 213.0 354.5 266.3 207.2 165.4
Coal, Australia .. 15.8 187.0 250.4 484.2 434.3 528.2 620.2 354.2 571.4 411.4 351.4 299.6
Crude oil, average .. 22.2 227.7 251.9 343.6 337.6 428.5 409.8 198.4 353.0 257.5 191.2 146.4
Natural gas , Europe .. 18.7 219.5 221.7 347.5 281.5 321.4 378.9 408.1 384.9 412.9 409.8 401.7
Non-energy 100.00 .. 192.1 224.9 272.5 281.4 308.1 292.8 208.0 276.0 226.6 205.6 191.6
Agriculture 69.10 .. 150.4 180.6 230.0 236.6 259.8 243.7 179.7 228.3 189.3 178.5 171.3
Beverages 16.90 .. 145.4 169.9 210.0 210.7 221.4 226.8 181.2 218.6 186.0 173.7 183.8
Cocoa 3.90 4.4 175.7 215.5 284.5 273.5 305.2 312.0 247.4 297.6 251.0 226.8 264.3
Coffee, arabica 8.00 0.3 131.4 141.9 160.5 171.1 164.2 167.3 139.5 164.5 141.9 140.0 136.5
Coffee, robusta 2.80 2.4 163.1 209.1 254.2 270.9 266.8 268.2 210.7 254.5 214.3 219.2 198.6
Food 29.40 .. 147.0 184.7 247.7 257.2 286.3 260.5 187.0 239.4 197.2 185.2 178.5
Fats and oils 10.10 .. 137.9 209.0 278.1 310.2 327.7 288.9 185.6 254.8 195.7 183.3 177.9
Palm oil 2.30 3.5 154.2 251.5 305.7 372.6 386.2 299.1 165.0 248.5 175.7 157.3 162.1
Soybean meal 4.10 9.7 110.6 163.0 227.4 234.4 255.7 238.1 181.5 215.2 178.7 183.4 182.4
Soybeans 2.00 8.0 126.8 181.3 246.8 265.6 276.2 267.3 178.1 240.3 186.0 178.4 169.9
Grains 6.90 .. 149.8 189.0 281.7 274.6 335.2 298.5 218.5 284.4 234.8 214.4 206.5
Maize 1.70 8.1 137.6 184.9 252.0 248.9 292.5 276.4 190.2 264.1 206.8 185.0 178.8
Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.90 7.9 150.6 161.3 321.2 236.2 422.6 347.3 278.7 337.9 301.0 272.7 262.5
Wheat, US, HRW 1.90 10.0 168.3 223.7 285.8 360.9 303.7 278.5 200.0 259.1 208.1 198.8 193.0
Other food 12.40 .. 156.4 149.0 177.1 171.9 187.4 188.9 160.1 178.4 165.1 161.3 154.1
Bananas, US 2.30 5.6 159.7 159.4 199.1 197.2 216.9 182.7 199.7 189.3 190.4 212.9 195.8
Sugar, world 7.50 0.6 126.1 98.0 115.7 118.0 115.5 126.7 102.5 121.6 103.1 102.8 101.7
Raw materials 22.80 .. 161.4 175.8 196.9 199.5 215.2 211.5 161.4 206.3 172.0 164.6 147.4
Cotton ("A" Index) 5.90 0.9 97.3 107.1 120.9 129.0 127.9 129.2 97.5 124.6 105.5 93.0 94.0
Rubber, Singapore 4.80 13.8 315.9 343.3 392.6 412.9 461.5 452.0 243.8 431.9 290.1 256.8 184.6
Sawnwood, Malaysia 2.90 6.3 126.0 135.6 149.5 144.7 157.4 151.4 144.6 149.4 144.9 146.7 142.2
Fertilizers 2.70 .. 168.6 240.1 573.4 409.4 624.1 741.1 519.1 740.1 602.5 505.0 449.8
Triple superphosphate 0.90 18.2 146.4 246.2 669.1 519.0 752.6 804.4 600.3 783.7 700.8 664.4 435.7
Metals and minerals 28.20 .. 280.3 314.0 325.7 358.7 371.1 342.4 230.6 321.1 260.5 227.3 204.0
Aluminum 7.90 6.6 165.9 170.3 166.1 177.0 189.8 179.9 117.6 163.0 136.9 119.6 96.2
Copper 9.30 15.4 370.7 392.5 383.6 429.9 465.6 423.5 215.3 385.5 271.6 205.0 169.4
Gold .. 11.5 216.6 249.7 312.4 332.1 321.1 311.6 284.7 297.4 289.1 272.7 292.5
Nickel 2.20 16.4 280.8 431.0 244.4 335.2 297.3 219.5 125.5 206.0 140.5 123.9 112.1
Memo:
Crude Oil (US$) .. 22.2 64.3 71.1 97.0 95.3 121.0 115.7 56.0 99.7 72.7 54.0 41.3
a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.
b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 16
Table A.5 Developing countries' merchandise export growth
(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)
Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2008
2000 1998-07 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec
Export values
Developing countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. 41.8 8.4 73.2 .. -8.4 -4.5 .. ..
East Asia and Pacific 36.3 15.7 23.4 21.6 .. 35.2 23.4 17.0 .. -5.4 2.0 -16.3 ..
China 16.7 20.9 27.2 25.7 .. 41.4 18.2 23.5 .. -6.6 7.0 -19.3 ..
Indonesia 4.2 7.9 17.7 13.2 .. 57.4 16.2 -1.7 .. -2.0 -10.8 -1.9 ..
Thailand 4.6 10.0 16.9 17.2 .. 21.3 34.8 0.9 .. -1.0 -2.6 -21.5 ..
Europe and Central Asia 20.7 .. .. .. .. 63.1 -15.1 382.3 .. -15.9 -14.0 .. ..
Russian Federation 7.1 15.1 24.5 16.8 .. 59.4 -55.3 3380.9 .. -27.4 -20.2 .. ..
Turkey 1.8 15.1 16.4 25.4 .. 137.2 -8.7 13.0 .. 2.5 -28.2 9.1 ..
Poland 2.1 18.5 22.5 25.9 .. 64.7 32.0 -16.8 .. -5.6 0.2 .. ..
Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 9.5 19.7 13.4 .. 8.0 24.7 11.3 .. -1.6 -5.4 -12.1 ..
Brazil 3.7 11.7 16.3 16.6 23.2 -0.7 114.7 14.2 -46.7 6.7 -9.3 -10.1 -6.5
Mexico 11.2 9.4 16.7 8.8 .. 11.3 12.1 4.3 .. -2.7 -3.9 -13.0 ..
Argentina 1.8 7.8 15.0 20.1 .. 32.0 -18.5 140.0 .. 1.8 -12.7 -15.9 ..
Middle East and North Africa 8.3 15.0 28.8 9.2 .. 95.9 13.7 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Saudi Arabia 5.2 12.6 21.7 3.6 .. 67.2 -5.9 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Iran 1.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt 0.3 15.1 32.5 18.2 .. 128.7 198.2 -24.4 .. -6.9 -5.1 .. ..
South Asia 4.3 13.3 15.7 18.9 .. 22.9 25.1 11.9 .. -7.6 -5.5 -5.4 ..
India 2.8 15.7 17.0 22.9 .. 17.2 21.2 16.0 .. -9.7 -5.4 -5.8 ..
Pakistan 0.6 7.1 5.2 2.4 .. 56.8 39.3 -8.5 .. 12.2 -3.5 -2.4 ..
Bangladesh 0.4 9.9 24.2 7.7 .. 44.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 11.7 20.3 17.6 .. 83.7 -24.0 .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Africa 2.0 8.5 12.2 19.3 .. 38.7 19.0 29.2 .. -5.3 0.6 -34.1 ..
Nigeria 1.4 13.6 21.6 12.2 .. 39.5 -4.4 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Export prices b,c
Developing countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
East Asia and Pacific 36.3 0.4 3.3 2.7 .. 5.5 12.1 2.9 .. -0.4 -2.1 .. ..
China 16.7 -0.9 2.8 1.7 .. -2.1 7.3 4.2 .. 0.5 -1.8 .. ..
Indonesia 4.2 5.1 15.7 9.8 .. 22.1 61.6 16.4 .. -4.8 1.4 -7.5 ..
Thailand 4.6 3.3 3.7 6.4 .. 7.6 44.9 5.8 .. -1.0 -4.3 -0.9 ..
Europe and Central Asia 20.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Russian Federation 7.1 9.5 16.2 20.2 .. 39.9 45.9 50.0 .. 2.0 -4.1 -8.8 ..
Turkey 1.8 1.8 3.5 12.5 .. 24.5 29.2 14.2 .. -2.6 -9.9 .. ..
Poland 2.1 -0.9 6.4 0.4 .. 3.1 -6.3 -14.6 .. 1.5 .. .. ..
Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 4.3 12.0 8.3 .. 15.3 38.4 19.8 .. -5.0 .. .. ..
Brazil 3.7 2.3 12.5 10.5 .. 26.2 47.1 56.8 .. -2.1 -1.9 -8.4 ..
Mexico 11.2 4.2 7.5 5.1 .. 13.5 36.8 6.5 .. -5.1 -12.2 -10.6 ..
Argentina 1.8 1.8 8.6 11.4 .. 54.9 20.5 -3.8 .. -3.7 .. .. ..
Middle East and North Africa 8.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Saudi Arabia 5.2 13.3 25.8 3.7 .. 96.7 47.4 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Iran 1.9 .. -5.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt 0.3 .. -1.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Asia 4.3 1.9 10.8 8.7 .. 15.5 10.7 8.4 .. -0.4 0.8 0.5 ..
India 2.8 2.5 3.7 9.4 10.8 12.3 10.0 6.8 2.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Pakistan 0.6 -0.5 2.6 3.3 .. 23.9 15.2 5.1 .. 0.2 1.0 4.2 ..
Bangladesh 0.4 -0.6 67.6 4.0 .. 53.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Africa 2.0 5.0 8.4 7.5 .. 40.3 -4.6 8.8 .. 1.0 .. .. ..
Nigeria 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis.
/b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.
/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade
price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 17
Table A.6 Developing countries' merchandise import growth
(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)
Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2008
2000 1998-07 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec
Import values
Developing countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. 47.6 21.1 13.2 .. -4.0 -3.5 .. ..
East Asia and Pacific 35.2 14.3 16.8 18.7 .. 57.5 4.3 12.8 .. -6.1 3.7 .. ..
China 19.3 21.0 19.9 20.8 .. 52.3 0.2 15.4 .. -8.9 6.7 -28.1 ..
Indonesia 2.1 6.0 5.8 22.0 .. 290.7 58.2 -2.0 .. 0.2 3.5 .. ..
Thailand 4.2 8.3 9.0 8.7 .. 63.4 0.6 63.0 .. 4.8 -3.3 .. ..
Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. 52.6 22.8 3.2 .. -1.8 -11.0 .. ..
Russian Federation 3.9 12.0 31.0 36.0 .. 5.1 93.7 41.6 .. 2.1 -4.4 .. ..
Turkey 3.2 13.4 19.5 21.8 .. 102.1 -7.1 13.6 .. -8.2 -17.6 .. ..
Poland 3.6 14.7 25.5 30.5 .. 74.9 17.3 -11.4 .. -13.8 -6.8 .. ..
Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 8.6 19.2 19.2 .. 31.1 39.3 21.8 .. 2.8 -4.6 .. ..
Brazil 3.2 7.3 24.1 32.0 .. 41.8 95.7 42.6 .. 7.8 -4.4 -21.2 ..
Mexico 11.6 9.9 15.4 10.1 .. 26.1 3.9 23.5 .. -3.5 -5.0 .. ..
Argentina 0.6 3.9 19.0 30.9 .. 45.6 51.5 6.4 .. 11.0 -5.0 .. ..
Middle East and North Africa 6.9 11.5 8.9 24.3 .. 26.9 62.6 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Saudi Arabia 2.0 12.5 20.2 35.6 .. -0.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Iran 1.4 13.5 7.8 20.6 .. 26.3 28.4 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt 0.8 7.5 3.9 31.4 .. 14.2 545.4 51.3 .. -4.0 .. .. ..
South Asia 5.5 15.7 20.8 23.7 .. 60.0 46.0 43.8 .. -15.3 -4.4 .. ..
India 3.7 18.6 21.9 27.8 .. 46.8 55.6 55.1 .. -18.3 -4.0 .. ..
Pakistan 0.7 10.9 17.4 9.3 .. 145.3 1.6 -9.0 .. 9.4 -7.5 .. ..
Bangladesh 0.5 9.8 15.5 15.4 .. 87.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 12.3 22.1 22.4 .. 17.9 14.5 .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Africa 1.9 11.0 23.6 17.9 .. 7.7 26.1 33.4 .. -5.6 -20.9 .. ..
Nigeria 0.5 18.8 20.3 33.7 .. 38.8 -6.1 .. .. .. .. .. ..
b,c
Import prices
Developing countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
East Asia and Pacific 35.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
China 19.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Indonesia 2.1 8.9 17.1 14.8 .. 25.7 67.0 5.1 .. -6.8 -8.3 .. ..
Thailand 4.2 1.8 6.5 5.4 .. 18.3 22.4 5.1 .. -3.1 -3.2 .. ..
Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Russian Federation 3.9 0.9 12.1 11.4 14.3 14.8 16.9 16.1 13.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
Turkey 3.2 3.1 10.1 7.9 .. 28.2 42.3 14.7 .. -3.7 -5.8 .. ..
Poland 3.6 -1.2 6.9 -1.8 .. -2.9 1.3 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 2.4 5.5 7.6 .. 19.7 32.7 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Brazil 3.2 3.0 6.9 8.2 .. 26.9 42.7 27.8 .. -0.5 -4.2 .. ..
Mexico 11.6 2.4 4.5 5.4 .. 12.2 16.1 12.4 .. -0.2 -2.3 .. ..
Argentina 0.6 0.3 2.3 7.3 .. 18.2 43.5 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Middle East and North Africa 6.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Saudi Arabia 2.0 2.3 3.1 7.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Iran 1.4 .. 3.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt 0.8 .. -3.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Asia 5.5 3.0 2.5 8.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
India 3.7 2.7 -10.0 7.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Pakistan 0.7 5.6 10.1 10.5 .. 54.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Bangladesh 0.5 1.5 93.1 11.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 3.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Africa 1.9 4.2 3.5 5.7 .. -5.0 33.2 15.0 .. 0.8 .. .. ..
Nigeria 0.5 .. 2.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis.
/b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.
/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade
price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 18
Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances
(Billion US dollars; annual rates)
CAB
US$ bn. % GDP 2008 2008 2008 2008
2008 2008 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec
World 0.0 0.0 -219 -190 .. -308 -407 -3 .. -333 .. .. ..
High-income countries a -374.9 -0.9 -463 -424 .. -443 -408 -574 .. -560 .. .. ..
Industrial countries -450.1 -1.1 -646 -570 .. -669 -589 -733 .. -692 .. .. ..
United States -661.9 -4.7 -817 -794 .. -819 -845 -837 .. -811 -820 .. ..
Japan 182.8 3.7 66 90 .. 61 60 -18 .. -39 -91 .. ..
Euro Area -9.3 -0.1 -14 42 .. -1 -15 -106 .. -106 .. .. ..
United Kindgom -73.2 -2.7 -145 -180 .. -183 -181 -166 .. -118 -129 .. ..
Other high income 75.3 4.0 183 146 .. 226 181 164 .. 130 184 .. ..
Hong Kong (China) 21.0 9.6 -18 -23 .. -23 -29 -30 .. -28 -37 .. ..
Singapore 29.9 17.4 31 35 .. 22 20 23 .. 6 20 .. ..
Taiwan (China) 24.4 5.8 20 27 .. 12 21 5 .. 5 26 14 ..
Developing countries 0.0 0.0 252 246 .. 148 9 611 .. 248 184 .. ..
East Asia and Pacific 400.0 8.0 238 331 .. 234 325 355 .. 366 341 .. ..
China 360.0 9.5 174 264 .. 219 278 314 .. 323 350 389 ..
Indonesia 3.6 0.7 40 39 .. 17 8 8 .. 11 -9 .. ..
Thailand 0.6 0.2 1 12 .. 1 14 -8 .. -15 -13 .. ..
Malaysia 33.3 16.3 29 29 .. 34 56 54 .. 55 35 .. ..
Europe and Central Asia .. .. -2 -23 .. -25 -155 473 .. 115 55 .. ..
Russian Federation 103.4 6.4 149 160 .. 214 82 604 .. 274 166 .. ..
Turkey -46.9 -8.3 -54 -63 .. -78 -77 -79 .. -64 -68 .. ..
Poland -26.1 -4.8 -17 -25 .. -38 -34 -36 .. -26 -13 .. ..
Czech Republic -6.1 -2.9 0 3 .. 0 2 8 .. 7 6 .. ..
Latin America and Caribbean -18.4 -0.5 33 3 .. -39 -66 -88 .. -111 -113 .. ..
Brazil -29.4 -1.9 46 40 .. 23 32 22 .. 22 10 30 ..
Mexico -15.3 -1.6 -6 -10 .. -13 -7 -21 .. -24 -20 .. ..
Argentina 7.0 2.4 12 11 .. 15 6 21 .. 22 15 .. ..
Colombia -5.5 -2.9 -2 -3 .. 0 0 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Middle East and North Africa .. .. 43 18 .. 65 40 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Saudi Arabia 143.0 29.3 123 106 .. 169 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Iran 0.0 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt 1.2 0.7 -7 -11 .. -9 -21 -29 .. -31 .. .. ..
Algeria 0.0 0.0 29 24 .. 35 34 .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Asia .. -74 -98 .. -133 -155 -184 .. -165 -159 .. ..
India .. .. -52 -72 .. -92 -115 -141 .. -123 -120 .. ..
Pakistan -15.7 -9.9 -13 -15 .. -25 -23 -23 .. -25 -22 .. ..
Bangladesh
$B$48,"","","","","no","no","no","down",15) #VALUE! -3 -4 .. -5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sri Lanka .. .. -3 -4 .. -6 -6 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 21 15 .. 66 34 .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Africa -21.3 -8.0 -9 -10 .. -7 -9 -10 .. -6 15 .. ..
Nigeria 18.9 9.9 23 20 .. 28 28 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Memo:
OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing oil exporters 203.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
a/ Seasonally adjusted
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 19
Table A.8 Exchange Rates (USD/LCU)
(annual percent change except monthly data which is change over previous month a/)
Weights Average
2008 2008 2008 2008 Latest
Levelb
1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec 21-Jan
World 100.0 95.3 0.3 5.7 4.4 9.3 10.7 6.7 -7.4 -4.6 -4.8 -0.1 0.6
High-income countries 77.9 .. 0.0 6.1 4.7 10.1 11.8 6.8 -8.1 -5.1 -4.2 1.2 1.0
Industrial countries 70.1 .. 0.1 7.0 5.0 11.4 12.9 7.2 -9.3 -5.7 -4.6 1.5 1.2
United States (SDR/USD) 15.6 0.7 -1.4 4.1 3.9 5.5 7.6 5.8 -2.9 -1.8 -2.6 -2.1 2.7
Japan 7.3 114.3 -6.4 -1.5 12.4 9.5 16.1 11.7 12.6 2.4 6.4 3.8 6.1
Euro Area 29.3 .. 1.0 9.1 6.9 14.3 15.8 9.1 -9.1 -7.5 -4.0 6.0 0.3
United Kindgom 5.5 0.6 -0.6 9.5 -5.3 1.3 0.5 -2.1 -18.5 -7.9 -6.0 -9.1 -3.8
Other high income 7.8 101.5 -0.3 0.4 2.6 1.8 4.3 4.0 0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 0.0
Hong Kong (China) 3.8 7.8 0.2 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Singapore 2.3 1.7 3.8 5.6 7.2 7.5 10.8 10.8 0.3 -1.8 -3.3 -2.0 2.2
Taiwan (China) 2.1 32.9 -1.6 -0.8 4.4 1.9 8.6 7.3 0.1 -2.4 -2.2 -1.3 0.2
Developing countries 22.1 114.8 1.3 4.7 3.7 7.1 7.7 6.5 -5.4 -3.3 -6.3 -3.8 -0.7
East Asia and Pacific 7.4 101.4 3.6 5.8 4.8 6.6 7.6 5.3 -0.1 -1.5 -2.0 -2.7 1.3
China 2.7 8.1 2.7 4.6 9.3 7.3 9.9 10.7 9.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1
Indonesia 1.1 9072.7 4.7 1.2 -3.9 -2.4 -2.3 -0.4 -9.9 -2.4 -7.2 -10.0 2.4
Thailand 1.3 39.3 4.6 10.4 4.5 8.1 9.9 1.9 -1.5 -1.3 -0.4 -2.0 0.5
Malaysia 1.4 3.7 2.8 6.7 4.2 7.5 8.0 5.4 -3.5 -3.3 -2.4 -2.5 2.7
Europe and Central Asia 4.9 104.0 0.7 8.2 7.4 11.3 12.7 13.2 -6.0 -4.6 -7.9 -7.4 -3.1
Russian Federation 1.5 27.8 3.0 6.5 4.8 7.5 9.5 8.4 -5.4 -4.6 -4.1 -3.5 -9.0
Turkey 0.6 1.2 -5.2 7.4 4.2 20.0 8.2 8.2 -15.5 -4.9 -16.4 -7.1 2.2
Poland 0.5 3.6 2.8 11.8 18.2 20.3 28.6 30.4 -2.3 -6.6 -12.7 -9.3 -1.8
Czech Republic 0.5 28.3 4.1 11.4 21.2 20.9 30.1 33.3 3.4 -4.8 -8.2 -6.0 0.7
Latin America and Caribbean 5.4 135.2 1.8 2.7 3.1 5.9 7.6 7.6 -7.5 -4.8 -10.8 -3.1 -1.7
Brazil 1.1 2.3 13.0 10.6 10.9 20.7 20.7 19.9 -12.3 -10.4 -17.2 -4.1 -1.2
Mexico 1.7 10.4 0.6 -0.5 0.1 0.7 3.9 6.5 -9.3 -4.6 -15.2 -4.5 -4.6
Argentina 0.4 2.4 -4.9 -1.2 -1.0 -2.1 -2.2 2.7 -2.4 -2.2 -4.4 -2.5 -4.3
Colombia 0.3 2282.0 -1.3 12.6 7.8 13.9 16.9 11.5 -7.9 -10.7 -9.7 -1.7 4.7
Middle East and North Africa 1.7 152.6 -0.7 1.7 3.0 3.0 5.2 4.8 -1.1 -1.4 -2.2 -1.4 -0.7
Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Iran 0.3 6515.1 -2.4 -1.2 -1.2 -1.0 1.7 -0.3 -5.0 -1.9 -2.1 0.3 -0.9
Egypt 0.3 5.0 1.4 1.4 3.9 3.7 5.8 5.7 0.5 -2.0 0.3 0.2 0.3
Algeria 0.3 72.7 0.5 4.6 8.3 6.6 9.3 11.9 5.8 0.2 -2.1 -8.6 -4.9
South Asia 1.2 105.4 -3.1 4.7 -3.5 7.9 1.5 -5.8 -15.2 -4.5 -4.9 -0.6 0.3
India 0.8 44.9 -3.1 8.6 -2.2 12.3 3.6 -5.1 -16.7 -5.8 -6.4 -0.7 0.6
Pakistan 0.2 58.9 -1.2 -0.9 -11.9 -0.6 -5.6 -14.7 -23.3 -3.6 -3.7 0.4 1.2
Bangladesh 0.1 60.2 -7.0 -0.4 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2
Sri Lanka 0.1 95.0 -2.6 -6.4 2.2 -0.1 1.9 3.6 3.4 -0.1 -0.2 -1.8 -3.3
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 114.9 -3.5 -0.5 -3.0 4.4 1.0 0.1 -15.0 -3.5 -10.3 -5.1 0.1
South Africa 0.5 7.4 -6.1 -5.0 -11.7 -0.5 -8.2 -7.9 -26.3 -4.9 -17.3 -3.5 4.7
Nigeria 0.3 118.5 2.2 1.6 6.2 8.7 8.5 7.8 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -11.8 -7.2
Memo:
OECD 73.8 .. 0.0 6.9 5.1 11.3 12.8 7.6 -9.2 -5.6 -5.3 1.0 1.0
Developing excl. China 19.3 117.5 1.1 4.7 3.0 7.1 7.4 5.9 -7.3 -3.8 -7.2 -4.4 -0.8
Developing oil exporters 2.7 159.0 1.1 1.0 -0.4 0.4 1.0 1.8 -4.4 -1.2 -3.6 -6.6 -0.5
Developing non-oil exporters 19.3 109.6 1.3 5.3 4.4 8.1 8.7 7.2 -5.5 -3.6 -6.7 -3.4 -0.8
Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
a/ An increase in the USD per LCU implies appreciation of the local currency. The aggregates computed by using trade weights and rebased to year 2000=100 (bilateral total
trade i.e. imports plus exports in 1995 constant USD).
Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by weight) of countries reported data in that time period.
b/ Average levels are LCU vis-a-vis the USD
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 20
Table A.9 Global Inflation
(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)
Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2008
1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec
World .. .. 3.1 3.0 .. 4.3 4.8 5.8 .. 5.8 5.1 3.5 ..
High-income countries .. .. 2.3 2.1 .. 3.2 3.6 4.3 .. 4.1 3.3 1.8 ..
Industrial countries 3.6 .. 2.3 2.1 .. 3.2 3.5 4.2 .. 4.0 3.3 1.7 ..
United States 4.9 .. 3.2 2.9 .. 4.1 4.4 5.3 .. 4.9 3.7 1.1 ..
Japan 2.4 .. 0.2 0.1 .. 1.0 1.4 2.2 .. 2.1 1.7 1.0 ..
Euro Area 3.1 .. 2.2 2.1 .. 3.3 3.6 3.8 .. 3.6 3.2 2.1 ..
United Kindgom 5.4 .. 2.3 2.3 .. 2.4 3.4 4.8 .. 5.2 4.5 4.1 ..
Other high income .. .. 1.6 2.4 .. 5.4 6.7 6.8 .. 6.2 5.3 .. ..
Hong Kong (China) 1.1 .. 2.0 2.0 .. 4.6 5.7 4.6 .. 3.1 1.8 3.1 ..
Singapore 5.7 .. 1.0 2.1 .. 6.6 7.5 6.6 .. 6.7 6.4 5.5 ..
Taiwan (China) 1.9 3.5 0.6 1.8 3.5 3.6 4.2 4.5 1.8 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.2
Developing countries 9.4 .. 6.1 6.2 .. 8.0 9.1 11.4 .. 11.8 11.4 9.7 ..
East Asia and Pacific 9.3 .. 5.4 5.2 .. 7.6 9.7 11.3 .. 11.8 11.2 9.2 ..
China 3.7 .. 1.5 4.8 .. 8.0 7.8 5.3 .. 4.6 4.0 2.4 ..
Indonesia 13.4 10.3 13.1 5.8 10.3 7.6 10.1 12.0 11.5 12.2 11.8 11.7 11.1
Thailand 5.7 5.5 4.6 2.2 5.5 5.0 7.5 7.2 2.2 6.0 3.9 2.2 0.4
Malaysia 8.9 .. 3.6 2.0 .. 2.6 4.9 8.4 .. 8.2 7.6 5.7 ..
Europe and Central Asia 10.7 .. 5.6 8.0 .. 10.6 11.4 11.3 .. 11.1 10.7 8.7 ..
Russian Federation 14.3 .. 9.7 9.0 .. 12.9 14.9 14.9 .. 15.1 14.2 13.8 ..
Turkey 8.5 10.4 9.6 8.8 10.4 8.8 10.3 11.7 10.9 11.1 12.0 10.8 10.1
Poland 3.8 4.3 1.1 2.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.8 3.8 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.4
Czech Republic 6.0 6.3 2.5 2.9 6.3 7.4 6.7 6.6 4.5 6.6 5.5 4.4 3.6
Latin America and Caribbean 9.0 8.7 5.8 6.2 8.7 8.4 9.1 9.9 8.8 10.1 10.0 9.6 7.7
Brazil 6.7 5.7 4.2 3.6 5.7 4.6 5.6 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 5.9
Mexico 5.2 5.1 3.6 4.0 5.1 3.9 4.9 5.5 6.2 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.5
Argentina 8.5 8.6 10.9 8.8 8.6 8.5 9.1 8.9 7.8 8.7 8.4 7.9 7.2
Colombia 8.5 7.0 4.3 5.5 7.0 6.1 6.4 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.9 7.7 7.7
Middle East and North Africa 11.7 .. 5.4 4.7 .. 8.4 14.1 13.6 .. 13.7 .. .. ..
Saudi Arabia 10.7 .. 2.1 3.9 .. 7.4 10.1 10.9 .. 10.9 10.3 .. ..
Iran 27.8 .. 11.6 16.8 .. 19.7 24.0 26.7 .. 27.6 .. .. ..
Egypt 25.1 .. 7.6 9.5 .. 12.3 18.8 22.5 .. 21.5 20.2 20.3 ..
Algeria 1.4 0.1 2.3 3.6 .. 4.3 6.1 2.1 .. 3.1 4.2 4.1 ..
South Asia 10.6 .. 7.7 7.6 .. 11.1 8.4 12.1 .. 13.1 13.5 13.4 ..
India 10.8 .. 6.2 6.4 .. 6.3 7.8 9.0 .. 9.8 10.4 10.4 ..
Pakistan 27.3 .. 7.9 7.6 .. 12.4 19.3 24.5 .. 23.9 25.0 24.7 ..
Bangladesh 7.5 .. 6.8 8.7 .. 11.1 8.4 10.3 .. 10.1 10.2 7.3 ..
Sri Lanka 21.3 22.6 10.0 15.8 22.6 22.1 26.5 25.2 16.9 24.3 20.3 16.3 14.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 9.2 .. 6.0 6.6 .. 7.7 8.7 11.8 .. 12.8 12.1 10.3 ..
South Africa 14.2 .. 4.6 7.1 .. 9.9 11.6 13.4 .. 13.1 12.1 11.8 ..
Nigeria 17.2 .. 8.5 5.5 .. 7.7 8.6 12.8 .. 12.3 13.0 14.7 ..
Memo:
OECD 3.6 .. 2.4 2.2 .. 3.2 3.6 4.3 .. 4.1 3.4 1.9 ..
Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing oil exporters 10.7 .. 10.0 5.7 .. 8.8 11.3 13.2 .. 13.0 12.4 13.2 ..
Developing non-oil exporters 9.2 .. 6.0 6.2 .. 8.0 9.1 11.2 .. 11.3 11.2 9.6 ..
Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
a/ Developing country aggregates computed using median. Industrial aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights. World total is GDP weighted average of developing and high
income total. Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by GDP) of countries reported data in that time period.
For developing countries, aggregate decadal growth rates are median of the decadal growth rates of the components. For high-income countries, aggregate decadal growth
rate is GDP weighted sum of decadal growth rates of components.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 21
Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates
(percentage a/)
Weights 2008 2008 2008 2008 Latest
1995 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec 21-Jan
World 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
b
High-income countries 82.8 3.83 4.13 2.32 3.12 2.48 2.41 1.25 1.79 1.17 0.80 0.65
Industrial countries 80.6 3.84 4.15 2.32 3.14 2.49 2.41 1.25 1.79 1.16 0.80 0.65
United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 4.96 5.02 1.93 3.16 2.09 1.96 0.52 1.01 0.39 0.17 0.18
Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.24 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.55 0.74 0.50 0.42 0.30
Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 2.76 3.84 3.89 4.00 4.00 4.23 3.34 3.86 3.43 2.73 2.50
United Kindgom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 4.64 5.51 4.67 5.35 5.03 5.00 3.32 4.61 3.23 2.13 1.50
Other high income 2.2 3.27 3.37 2.16 2.60 2.37 2.36 1.32 1.78 1.38 0.79 ..
Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 6.50 6.52 3.13 4.25 3.58 3.50 1.17 1.50 1.50 0.50 ..
Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 3.40 2.68 1.15 1.47 1.09 1.03 1.01 1.45 0.84 0.75 0.50
Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.56 1.96 1.93 2.08 2.10 2.14 1.40 1.92 1.41 0.86 0.23
Developing countries 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 5.86 6.71 7.18 7.47 7.47 7.43 6.34 6.98 6.55 5.50 5.31
Indonesia (SBI 90 day rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18
Thailand (14day Repo Rate - BOT) 0.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 3.39 3.50 3.48 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.41 3.50 3.48 3.25 3.23
Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 11.64 10.27 10.87 10.16 10.48 10.97 11.88 11.00 11.65 13.00 13.00
Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 16.76 18.37 17.05 16.39 16.48 17.80 17.55 18.00 17.80 16.86 13.83
Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 4.09 4.48 5.88 5.40 5.95 6.10 6.05 6.29 6.16 5.71 5.11
Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 2.17 2.86 3.49 3.65 3.75 3.60 2.98 3.50 2.90 2.53 2.25
Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 15.33 12.05 12.45 11.25 11.81 12.97 13.75 13.75 13.75 13.75 13.75
Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 7.30 7.36 7.88 7.52 7.64 8.29 8.09 8.13 7.95 8.18 7.82
Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 6.45 8.09 11.43 8.41 10.42 11.46 15.42 13.57 17.03 15.65 12.96
Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 6.27 7.94 9.68 9.24 9.67 9.80 10.02 9.82 10.05 10.19 9.73
Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Saudi Arabia (IMF discount rate) 0.4 5.02 4.79 .. 2.52 2.14 3.10 .. 4.29 .. .. ..
Iran (IMF discount rate) 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 9.00 9.00 .. 9.00 9.33 .. .. .. .. .. ..
Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 .. 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. 4.00 4.00 .. ..
South Asia 1.6 .. .. ..
India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 5.97 7.04 7.90 7.50 7.50 7.59 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00
Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 8.58 9.09 10.63 9.53 10.16 11.70 11.12 12.08 10.90 10.37 10.63
Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 .. 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. 5.00 .. .. ..
Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 9.14 10.43 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. ..
South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 7.63 9.61 11.61 11.00 11.53 12.00 11.90 12.00 12.00 11.70 11.50
Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 13.25 9.13 .. 9.50 10.08 10.08 .. .. .. .. ..
Memo:
OECD 83.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing excl. China 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing oil exporters 2.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing non-oil exporters 15.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported
(which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available).
b/ High-income aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights.
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 22
Table A.11 Stock Markets
(indices, year 2000=100)
Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 Latest
1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec 21-Jan
World .. 91 106 124 102 115 112 93 72 74 69 72 67
High-income countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
United States .. 89 100 112 92 100 98 89 68 73 67 68 65
Japan .. 84 107 109 77 79 86 71 56 57 55 56 53
Euro Area .. 99 121 148 117 137 129 103 80 81 76 80 73
United Kindgom .. 88 98 106 88 94 92 81 73 72 71 73 69
Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Hong Kong (China) .. .. 127 152 125 142 136 113 81 86 82 81 77
Singapore .. .. 113 150 121 126 124 107 121 84 125 121 121
Taiwan (China) .. 72 80 94 85 100 88 62 51 51 .. .. ..
Developing countriesa,b .. 156 203 275 262 282 268 219 160 160 .. .. ..
East Asia and Pacificc .. 123 146 219 192 216 187 144 108 108 .. .. ..
China .. 118 109 240 215 238 202 157 118 118 .. .. ..
Indonesia .. 207 268 397 415 462 442 322 188 188 .. .. ..
Thailand .. 188 231 282 274 325 284 215 143 143 .. .. ..
Malaysia .. 116 120 183 169 182 168 135 110 110 .. .. ..
Europe and Central Asia .. .. 398 495 461 508 535 333 216 216 .. .. ..
Russian Federation .. 525 878 1046 996 1116 1218 662 428 428 .. .. ..
Turkey .. 87 119 166 139 130 126 124 81 81 .. .. ..
Poland .. 168 228 319 272 313 278 226 148 148 .. .. ..
Czech Republic .. 354 484 674 789 853 928 639 459 459 .. .. ..
Latin America and Caribbean .. 203 263 394 426 447 487 333 228 228 .. .. ..
Brazil .. 199 254 398 471 474 558 349 237 237 .. .. ..
Mexico .. 193 260 360 337 376 360 290 197 197 .. .. ..
Argentina .. 104 150 190 177 189 234 138 81 81 .. .. ..
Colombia .. 352 589 685 653 685 686 615 522 457 478 522 522
Middle East and North Africa .. .. 332 366 384 387 402 397 286 286 .. .. ..
Saudi Arabia .. .. 527 339 340 389 385 309 197 232 181 197 ..
Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt .. 213 328 412 484 573 512 359 243 243 .. .. ..
Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
India .. 198 266 411 375 413 327 283 199 199 .. .. ..
Pakistan .. 241 370 452 346 528 375 231 134 221 228 134 125
Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sri Lanka .. 229 312 358 283 330 314 261 171 213 198 171 180
Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Africa .. 216 307 378 322 326 330 275 201 201 .. .. ..
Nigeria .. 409 450 807 868 1096 947 801 442 603 540 442 354
Memo:
OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002
Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months.
b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&P
c/ East Asia Pacific including South Asia
Source: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong
Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock Excahnge Composite Index;
All Others are IFC/S&P Indices
January 22, 2009
External Environment for Developing Countries page 23
Table A.12 GDP and current account forecasts
(annual percent change; billions of US dollars)
GDP Gross domestic Product Current Account Balance
2007 2008 2009 2008 2009
Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD
World 3.6 2.2 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 -0.4 52 .. .. 47 .. ..
High-income countries 2.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.5 -375 .. .. -109 .. ..
Industrial countries 2.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.5 -450 .. .. -184 .. ..
United States 2.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 -1.3 -1.0 -0.9 -662 .. -717 -410 .. -648
Japan 1.8 0.4 0.3 0.5 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2 183 197 187 208 220 231
Euro Area 2.5 1.1 0.9 1.0 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -9 .. -55 -33 .. -8
United Kindgom 3.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 -1.5 -2.5 -1.1 -73 -70 -54 -54 -50 -35
Other high income 5.8 2.6 2.8 .. 0.3 -1.5 .. 75 .. .. 75 .. ..
Hong Kong (China) 6.0 2.9 3.1 .. -0.3 -1.0 .. 21 .. .. 22 .. ..
Singapore 8.0 2.0 2.2 .. -0.6 -2.2 .. 30 .. .. 27 .. ..
Taiwan (China) 5.3 2.1 2.3 .. 0.2 -2.9 .. 24 .. .. 25 .. ..
.. ..
Developing countries 7.5 6.2 6.2 .. 4.1 3.6 .. 426.5 .. .. 156.2 .. ..
East Asia and Pacific 10.2 8.4 8.2 .. 6.8 5.3 .. 400.0 .. .. 370.2 .. ..
China 11.4 9.3 9.1 .. 7.8 6.0 .. 360.0 0.4 398.6 336.5 0.4 437.2
Indonesia 6.2 6.1 6.1 .. 4.4 3.5 .. 3.6 .. .. 4.0 .. ..
Thailand 4.4 4.3 4.0 .. 2.3 1.9 .. 0.6 .. .. 2.2 .. ..
Malaysia 6.0 5.3 5.6 .. 2.4 3.2 .. 33.3 .. .. 25.0 .. ..
.. ..
Europe and Central Asia 6.2 4.7 5.0 .. 1.9 2.2 .. -48.0 .. .. -119.8 .. ..
Russian Federation 7.5 6.7 7.0 .. 2.9 3.7 .. 103.4 0.1 .. 1.5 .. ..
Turkey 4.5 1.6 2.5 3.3 0.8 1.5 1.6 -46.9 .. -42.5 -31.2 .. -46.1
Poland 6.5 5.1 5.1 5.4 2.8 2.9 3.0 -26.1 .. -28.0 -24.9 .. -29.3
Czech Republic 6.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 1.8 0.8 2.5 -6.1 ..
.. -5.1 -5.8 ..
.. -6.0
Latin America and Caribbean 5.4 4.5 4.4 .. 1.3 1.3 .. -18.4 .. .. -66.4 .. ..
Brazil 5.2 5.5 5.3 .. 2.1 2.4 .. -29.4 .. .. -27.4 .. ..
Mexico 3.1 1.7 1.8 1.9 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 -15.3 .. -14.1 -23.4 .. -29.5
Argentina 8.3 6.3 6.2 .. 0.8 2.2 .. 7.0 .. .. 1.3 .. ..
Colombia 6.6 3.5 3.2 .. 2.7 2.0 .. -5.5 .. .. -7.2 .. ..
Middle East and North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Saudi Arabia 4.9 5.5 6.0 .. 2.7 3.0 .. 143.0 0.1 .. 28.2 -0.1 ..
Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Egypt 7.3 6.9 7.2 .. 5.4 5.1 .. 1.2 0.0 .. -1.1 0.0 ..
Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Asia 8.1 6.4 6.2 .. 6.0 5.5 .. -48.9 .. .. -42.6 .. ..
India 8.6 6.9 6.2 .. 6.3 6.1 .. -33.2 .. .. -26.4 .. ..
Pakistan 6.2 3.1 6.0 .. 3.9 1.4 .. -15.7 .. .. -16.2 .. ..
Bangladesh 6.2 5.4 6.2 .. 5.4 5.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sri Lanka 6.8 .. 5.3 .. .. 4.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
South Africa 4.8 3.4 3.5 .. 2.7 2.5 .. -21.3 .. .. -20.4 .. ..
Nigeria 5.6 6.1 6.0 .. 6.1 4.6 .. 18.9 ..
.. .. 8.1 ..
.. ..
Memo: .. ..
OECD 2.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.4 -558 .. .. -279 .. ..
Developing excl. China 6.1 5.0 5.0 .. 2.7 2.6 .. 66.5 .. .. -180.3 .. ..
Developing oil exporters 6.2 5.7 5.6 .. 3.1 2.0 .. 203.7 .. .. 47.6 .. ..
Developing non-oil exporters 7.7 6.2 6.2 .. 4.2 3.7 .. 222.8 .. .. 108.6 .. ..
Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Sources: Consensus Economics Ltd.; The Economist Intelligence Unit and OECD.
Regional Aggregates:
Latin America and Carribean: ARG,BOL,BRA,CHL,COL,CRI,DOM,ECU,MEX,PAN,PER,PRY,URY,VEN
Europe and Central Asia: BGR,CZE,EST,HRV,HUN,KAZ,POL,ROM,RUS,SVK,TUR,UKR
East Asia and Pacific: CHN, IDN,MYS,PHL,THA
Middle-East and North Africa: DZA,EGY,IRN,IRQ,JOR,LBN,MAR,OMN,SAU,SYR,TUN,YEM
South Asia: BGD,IND,PAK
Sub-Saharan Africa: AGO,BWA,CIV,CMR,GAB,GHA,KEN,MUS,MWI,NAM,NGA,SDN,TZA,UGA,ZAF,ZMB,ZWE
Other Aggregates:
OECD:AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,CZE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,HUN,IRL,ISL,ITA,JPN,KOR,MEX,NLD,NOR,POL,PRT,SVK,SWE,TUR,USA
Industrial Countries: AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,ITA,JPN,KOR,NLD,NOR,PRT,SWE,USA
Other High Income: HKG,ISR,SGP,SVN
Developing Oil Exporters: IDN,NGA,SAU,VEN