Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 14770 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT CHINA HUANGPU PORT PROJECT (LOAN 2877/CREDIT 1845-CHA) JUNE 29, 1995 Transport Operations Division China and Mongolia Department East Asia and Pacific Regional Office This document has a restricted distribution and may be used bv recipients only in the performance of their ofricial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Name = Renminbi Currency Unit = Yuan (Y) Yuan rate per US$1.0 1985 2.94 1990 4.78 1986 3.45 1991 5.32 1987 3.72 1992 5.53 1988 3.72 1993 5.76 1989 3.76 1994 8.60 1995 8.50 FISCAL YEAR January I - December 31 MEASUREMENT EQUIVALENTS Metric System British/US system I meter (m) 3.281 feet I square meter (m-) 10.764 square feet I cubic meter (mi3) = 35.3 15 cubic feet I kilometer (km) 0.621 mile I ton-km 0.621 ton-mile I ton 2,208 pounds PRINCIPAL ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS USED Cr - Credit dwt - deadweight ton (for vessel) EIRR - Economic Internal Rate of Return GHB - Guangzhou Harbour Bureau GOC - Government of China HD - Huangpu District HHB - Huangpu Harbour Bureau ICB - International Competitive Bidding ICR - Implementation Completion Report LCB - Local Competitive Bidding LRMC - Long Run Marginal Cost MOC - Ministry of Communications MOF - Ministry of Finance NPV - Net Present Value REIRR - Reevaluated Economic Intemnal Rate of Return RFA - Revaluation on Average Net Fixed Assets RRFA - Rate of Return on Average Net Fixed Assets SAR - Staff Appraisal Report SPC - State Planning Commission teu - twentv-foot equivalent unit (for container) TA - Technical Assistance XTC - Xinsha Terminal Company FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT CHINA HUANGPU PORT PROJECT (LOAN 2877/CREDIT 1845-CHA) CONTENTS Preface ...................................................................................................................... i Evaluation Summary ....................................................... ii PART I: IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT ..................................................... I A. Project Objectives ..................................................1 B. Achievement of Objectives ................................................. 2 C. Major Factors Affecting the Project ..................................... 10 D. Project Sustainability ................................................. 1I E. Bank Performance 1.. F. Borrower Performance ...................................................... 11 G. Assessment of Outcome ...................................................... 11 H. Future Operations ................................................... 12 I. Lessons Learned ....................................................... 12 Table 1: Summary Of Assessments ....................................................... 13 Table 2: Related Bank Loans/Credits ...................................... 14 Table 3: Project Timetable ...................................................... 14 Table 4: Loan Disbursements: Cumulative Estimated and Actual ... 15 Table 5: Key Indicators for Project Implementation . ..................................... 16 Table SB: Training Needs of Xinsha Terminal . .............................................. 17 Table 5C: Procurement (under ICB for over $1.0 mln. contracts) .. 18 Table 6: Key Indicator for Project Operation ................................................. 19 Table 7: Studies Included in Project ....................................... 20 Table 8A: Project Cost ....................................................... 21 Table 8B: Project Financing ............................................. 22 Table 8C: Allocation of Loan Proceeds .................................... 23 Table 9: Economic Cost, Benefit and Major Financial Indicators .. 24 Table 10: Status of Legal Covenants ....................................... 25 Table 11: Bank Resources: Staff Input ..................................... 26 Table 12: Bank Resources: Mission ....................................... 27 APPENDIX A: ICR PREPARATION MISSION'S AIDE-MEMOIRE ... 29 APPENDIX B: BORROWER'S CONTRIBUTION TO THE ICR .. 30 APPENDIX C: MAP ...................................................... 34 ANNEX 1: FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ...................................................... 35 ANNEX 2: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ....................................................... 39 B. Ship Time Analysis ...................................................... 40 This documnent has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed wihout World Bank authorization. C. Berth Operations ........................................... 41 D. Economic Costs and Benefits ........................................... 43 E. Overall Economic Reevaluation and Sensitivity Analysis ......................... 44 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT CHINA HUANGPU PORT PROJECT (LOAN 2877/CREDIT 1845-CHA) PREFACE This is the Implementation Completion Report (ICR) for the Huangpu Port Project in China for which Loan 2877 for $63 million and Credit 1845 for $25 million were approved on October 6, 1987. The loan/credit were closed on December 31, 1994, after being extended once for one year. Final disbursement was made on May 4, 1995. The credit was fully disbursed, but $2.23 million of the loan amount was canceled. The ICR was prepared by Messrs. Toshiro Tsutsumi (Task Manager) and Han- Kang Yen (Economic and Financial Analyst) of the Transport Operations Division, China and Mongolia Department of the East Asia and Pacific Region and reviewed by Messrs. Richard Scurfield, Chi 'f, EA2TP and Yo Kimura, Project Adviser, EA2DR. The Borrower provided comments that are included as appendixes. Preparation of this ICR was started just before the project closing date and is based on the material in the project file. The Borrower contributed by preparing its own evaluation of the project execution and initial preparation. - 11 - CHINA HUANGPU PORT PROJECT (LOAN 2877/CREDIT 1845-CHA) EVALtJATION SUMMARY Objectives Huangpu Port, in the Pearl River estuary, is the largest in South China and serves the Provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi, Hubei and Hunan, among others. It is 130 km northwest of Hong Kong and connected to the South China Sea by a navigation channel. The main objective of the project was to assist the Government of the People's Republic of China (GOC) to relieve congestion in the port of Huangpu and increase its handling capacity. It did this by providing additional facilities and improving the planning, managerial and operational capabilities of its staff. Specifically, the Bank assisted in financing: (a) construction of the new Xinsha terminal (1,700 m long) for coal, iron ore, bulk fertilizer, general cargo, lighters and service boats equipped with a modem cargo handling system, and (b) technical assistance for studies and staff training. Implementation Experience and Results The project became effective on October 3, 1988. Project launch was quick and smooth, with major contracts in civil works awarded shortly after loan effectiveness. The components financed by the Bank Group were completed satisfactorily by December 31, 1994, after a one-year delay in supplying a coal and iron ore handling system. Technical assistance and training have also been satisfactorily implemented. Despite the delay, implementation was considered satisfactory-the main objectives were achieved. The construction of physical components, procurement of equipment and implementation of studies proceeded smoothly, mainly due to their lack of complexity and good coordination between the Guangzhou Harbor Bureau (GHB) and the Ministry of Communications (MOC). The Bank-financed components were implemented by one executing entity, the GHB. Bid evaluations, which in China require two steps-one by the end-user and another by the central evaluation committee-generally required about six months. However, under this project, procurement was about two months shorter, except for the bid for fertilizer unloaders that required 13 months (see paras. 9-13). The final project cost was Y 543.69 million plus $86.93 million instead of the Y 668.53 million and $88.0 million estimated at appraisal-lower due to savings in physical contingency and competitive bidding prices. Estimated base costs were nearly - 111 - correct. Domestic price increase in 1993 did not have a major impact on project cost since the significant civil works were completed before 1993 (para. 20). A total of $2,261,034.18 was canceled. The project's economic rate of return (at completion) was estimated at 32.7 percent against 21.3 percent at appraisal, which is considered satisfactory. GHB's financial performance has so far been satisfactory. However, GHB is currently unable to operate as a financially autonomous corporation, since tariff setting is still controlled by the central Government. Without competition between ports or within the port, liberalization of tariffs is not deemed appropriate. Government still controls tariffs so as to encourage the port to increase efficiency while restraining the opportunities for the port to abuse its position as a regional monopoly. However, in the long term some accommodation will be required and cost increases borne by the port operation must be reflected in higher tariffs. Findings and Lessons Learned The project is sustainable (para. 40). Most importantly, port traffic will grow, due to the rapid economic development of the Guangzhou area. Also, GHB is a financially stable entity. Moreover, with the modem equipment and extensive training provided under the project, GHB has the potential to increase the port's productivity. The findings and lessons from project implementation include the following: (a) Bidding documents for the procurement of large equipment should provide specific postqualification criteria to avoid confusion during the evaluation; (b) Tariffs should be adjusted every year, based on the local price index or some other reasonable indicator. GHB has no authority to set its own tariffs and revenue gains were offset by cost increases that were even higher; (c) GHB still has room to improve performance by improving management techniques and periodically revaluing fixed assets. GHB should also consider introducing competition among terminal operators to improve efficiency; (d) The simple project design, which involved one executing agency under one ministry, is considered a key reason for the satisfactory implementation; and (e) It is recommended that GHB update the master plan of the port periodically, since the port serves one of the country's most rapidly developing areas and traffic patterns will change quickly. Also, the relationship with other nearby ports such as Shenzhen and Hong Kong should be considered. - 1 - IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT CHINA HUANGPU PORT PROJECT (LOAN 2877/CREDIT 1845-CHA) PART I. IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT A. PROJECT OBJECTIVES 1. In the mid-1980s when this project was identified, most of China's ports were badly congested, with shortages of container berths, bulk cargo berths, port equipment, storage yards and transport infrastructure for distribution. Congestion was sufficiently severe as to threaten to hold back further expansion of China's foreign trade. Huangpu Port, South China's largest port and serving Guangdong Province, among others, had become particularly congested due to the port's location at the confluence of three rivers, which merge into the Pearl River estuary between Guangzhou and Hong Kong. The port is some 130 km northwest of Hong Kong and is connected to the South China Sea by a 11 5-km navigation channel. 2. The main project objective was to increase Huangpu port's efficiency in handling bulk and general cargo and by providing specialized berths with modem equipment. Another aim was to improve efficiency over the long term by providing training; and technical assistance for studies relating to: (a) the port's master plan, (b) management and operations, and (c) upgrading of the inlet channel. 3. Development of Huangpu port under the project consisted of: (a) A new Xinsha terminal of five berths-one each for coal, iron ore and bulk fertilizer, and two for general purposes. This component required: (i) Construction of a 600-m quaywall with alongside depth of 11.0 m for coal, iron ore, and bulk fertilizer berths; construction of a 400-m quaywall with alongside depth of 11.0 m for general cargo berths; and construction of a 700-m wharf with alongside depth of 4.0 m for lighters and harbor operations vessels. The quaywalls were designed with alongside depth of 12.5 m for future use; (ii) Basin dredging and land reclamation; - 2 - (iii) Dredging of a channel east of the new terminal (approximately 7 km); (iv) Construction of various types of infrastructure (to serve the future berths at Xinsha as well as those in the Huangpu project); a. Two railway bridges and two highway bridges; b. Rail lines, roadways and yard pavements; c. Water supply, sewerage and power supply connections; d. Maintenance buildings, auxiliary buildings, etc.; (v) Procurement of ancillary items such as loading/unloading equipment, navigational aids, surveying equipment and boats; (b) Training of personnel in China and abroad in operating and maintaining the new facilities; (c) Technical assistance, including training of counterpart staff in supervising construction, producing specialized designs and managing and operating the port; and (d) Studies, such as an update of the master plan for Huangpu port (which included a review of intermodal cargo distribution in Huangpu and its hinterland), and another to optimize improvements to the inlet channel. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF OBJECTIVES Project Implementation 4. This was the third Bank-assisted port project in China, following the Three Ports Project (Loan 2207, 1982) and the Tianjin Port Project, (Loan 2689, 986). Under the Three Ports (Huangpu, Shanghai and Tianjin) Project, coal and container terminals at Huangpu Port were provided successfully. This project was an extension of Huangpu Port downstream of the Pearl River. 5. After Board approval and before signing of the legal documents, Huangpu Harbour Bureau (HHB) merged with Guangzhou Port to become the Guangzhou Harbour Bureau (GHB). This did not create significant problems, because the new charter was carried out on time and GHB accepted the Project Agreement as negotiated. However, the signing was slightly delayed while the charter for the new agency was prepared. 6. Civil Works. Two civil works contracts were financed by the Bank. The first was for marine works (this included the main quay construction). Construction was initially delayed for about 5-6 months, but this delay was made up after the contractor - 3 - improved its management techniques, the quantity of construction equipment available on the site was increased and coordination improved between GHB's supervision team and the resident engineer. Also, the local contractor and GHB were initially unfamiliar with international contract procedures (FIDIC). 7. The second contract for construction of land works was satisfactorily implemented and completed in accordance with the progress of the other works such as railway construction and installation of the cargo handling system for coal and fertilizer. GHB retained the supervision consultants for the second contract. Improved familiarization of GHB's supervision team with international practice under the first contract was a factor in the satisfactory implementation of the second contract. 8. In addition to the Bank-financed construction works, GHB contracted many other civil works with local contractors (more than 90 contracts through local funding), which have been satisfactorily completed and coordinated with the Bank-financed component (railway, road, etc.). Procurement for these varied depending on the size and nature of the work, from sole-source basis to local competitive bidding (LCB). Implementation by the local contractors was satisfactory and there were no major problems. 9. Procurement of Equipment. The main equipment was procured through ICB (Table 5C) for handling coal/iron ore, general cargo and fertilizer, along with other equipment (such as tugboats and portal cranes) purchased through cost savings. Procurement was, for the most part, satisfactory. The bid evaluation period was generally two months shorter than that of other similar projects, although some delays occurred with (a) preparing bid documents and evaluating bids, and (b) implementing contracts for the coal/iron ore handling system. 10. Although GHB gained experience in Bank financing under the Three Ports Project, preparation of bid documents was delayed due to the complexity of both coal/iron ore handling system and fertilizer bagging system. With respect to the first of these, GHB needed about two years to prepare bid documents for four ship unloaders, five stackers/reclaimers, and a conveyor and weighing system. The contract amounted to over $40 million. 11. There was also a nine-month delay in the supply of this handling system for coal and iron ore. This was due to (a) special circumstances (prices escalated and domestic steel was in short supply) after the design was produced and (b) the contractor's limited experience in coordinating the various manufacturers (including foreign firms). The joint-venture contractor, which had experience with a similar size project as a subcontractor, was awarded the contract after a long discussion between GOC and the Bank about the contractor's qualifications-on the condition that subcontracted foreign manufacturers would provide performance security. 12. The contractor found it difficult to satisfactorily coordinate its activities with those of the foreign manufacturers (who were assembling the system) and to correct - 4 - teething problems with various parts of the system discovered during trial runs. GHB delayed approving the system until March 1995, after the required corrections were made. 13. With respect to the fertilizer bagging system, GHB/GOC needed 13 months to evaluate and finalize the bid for one of the ship unloaders. However, the time could have been reduced if the postqualification criteria in the bid documents had been more specific. Moreover, although only two companies bid, the one that was lower had no experience supplying a fertilizer unloader. And, while GHB required bidders to have experience with at least five units of similar or superior types of equipment in the last 10 years, it could not easily conclude if experience with a grain unloader was sufficient. As a result, the lower bidder was found not qualified and the Bank accepted this decision. Once the decision had been made the equipment was delivered in less time than stated in the contract. Thus, the long evaluation period did not affect implementation for the entire fertilizer handling system. 14. Technical Assistance and Training. The project included four studies on (a) special designs for marine structure, (b) management and operations, (c) the master plan and (d) the navigation channel (Table 7, Part II), of which the Bank was supposed to finance (a) and (b). However, foreign consultants found it difficult to acquire the information needed for the studies of management and operations. Therefore, the Bank only financed the special design study which was completed satisfactorily and applied during the construction of the marine works. 15. GHB then combined studies (b) and (c), using local funds and local corsultants. Despite this change implementation of the studies was also satisfactory. For cxample, the management and operation study recommended a specialization and improvement of terminals. Following the recommendations, GHB has converted 2 existing coal berths (#1-2) into a fertilizer terminal, increased storage capacity of the Xingang terminal and improved daily operation through on-the-job training. GHB also has initiated construction of berth Nos. 6-10 by extending the project terminals (berths Nos. 1-5), following the recommendation of the Master Plan Study. Through the improvement, berth capacity has been increased, berths' throughput was raised and vessel berthing time was reduced (see Table 6, Part II). The Master Plan, however, should be updated, since economic, as well as infrastructure, development in this area is significant, and traffic demand projections should be revised in accordance with these changes. 16. Training. GHB established a new terminal company [Xinsha Terminal Company (XTC)] to manage the new facilities financed through the project. Although the number of trained staff was lower than planned (1,398 compared to 1,903), training was considered appropriate and satisfactory (Table 5B, Part II). GHB decided to downsize the new company (XTC). It was able to do this because it extended the mechanized cargo handling system and raised the productivity of the company. Thus, instead of a staff of 1,903, as estimated in the SAR, the company currently has only about 1,000 employees (592 regular staff, and 400 fixed term workers), and also uses another 386 workers from various other terminal companies when necessary. All staff, including workers in the other companies, were trained under the project. 17. GHB is considered a capable and sustainable company. A total of 162 staff were transferred from the original terminal and office of GHB, and are experienced managers. GHB has sent these and other staff to the several training courses (in management, planning, designing and operation) that were organized by port authorities in developed countries. Domestic training has also been implemented by using a local training center. Project Results 18. All project objectives were achieved during implementation: (a) Bottlenecks at the port were removed with the addition of the five new specialized berths; the handling of coal, iron ore, bulk fertilizer and general cargo using modem equipment; (b) Long-term efficiency gains cannot be documented yet; however, early results are very positive. The project's institutional goals have also been achieved substantially, through the provision of TA; and (c) The project's benefits were also achieved, including savings in (a) cargo- handling costs, (b) ship waiting and berthing time, and (c) cargo handling time. The economic rate of return (ERR) of the project is estimated at 32.7 percent against the 21.3 percent in the SAR. 19. Although the project was modified somewhat, this did not change its overall objectives. The major modification included converting the iron ore berth (No. 2 berth) into one that could also handle coal (to expand coal handling capacity), involving increase in the arnount of equipment purchased. GHB asked the Bank to approve the modification (which was at the No. 2 terminal), at a cost of $8.5 million; the Bank approved the request. No environmental or resettlement problems arose during implementation. 20. The project's final cost is estimated at Y 543.69 million plus $86.93 million, against Y 668.53 million and $88.0 million calculated at appraisal. Total costs were less than estimated, mainly because of the savings gained in physical contingency, and competitive bidding prices. Estimated base costs were nearly correct. No call was made on the physical contingencies (10 percent of the base cost, estimated at $12 million). A total of $2,261,034.18 was canceled. Domestic price hikes in 1993 did not have a major impact on project costs since substantial civil works were completed before this time. 21. Decentralization. Immediately prior to signature of the loan in January 1988, the process of decentralizing the management and financial administration of various ports, from the State (MOC) to the local municipal governments, was begun. Port authorities of the municipalities assumed a large part of the responsibility, handling daily management, - 6 - operations, construction, budgetary and development functions. However, although major projects and plans affecting the port's long-term development still need to be approved by the MOC, the ports now bear the financial obligations for any loans obtained. As the ports will be covering the loans, the Government reduced the tax rate, by requiring them to make an annual flat rate payment (not based on their earnings). This enhanced the ports' internal cash generation by reducing an annual fixed tax obligation to the Government (in 1988); to date, this arrangement has not changed substantially. 22. Decentralization has given freedom to ports to administer their own financial and management structure. GHB now only needs Government approval for rehabilitation projects of over Y 30 million. Other key financial terms of the restructuring are as follows: (a) a much reduced annual lump sum payment up to 1992: (i) of Y 1.87 million (instead of Y 55.7 million for 1986) for income and adjustment taxes; and (ii) of Y 9.45 million for Government's Energy and Transport Fund, including tax on port construction; and (b) a flat annual contribution of Y 11.0 million from 1993. 23. Reorganization. In December 1987, Huangpu Port (HP) was merged with Guangzhou Port, given the new name of Guangzhou Harbor Bureau (GHB), and became the Huangpu District (HD) of GHB. Financially, lID is the main source of income for GHB. In 1994, for example, HD's total assets, operating revenues and net profits constituted 79.1 percent, 75.8 percent and 77.5 percent, respectively, of GHB's. When figures in this report are compared with those of the SAR, they pertain only to the HD (of GHB). 24. New Financial Reporting Procedures. Under MOF's instructions, GHB improved its financial accounting procedures in July 1993 to keep in line with international accounting standards. The new accounting and reporting systems will accelerate the commercialization and privatization of the port. 25. Past Financial Performance. The port's financial performance during 1985-94 was satisfactory. A comparison of actual performance with estimates in the SAR for 1985-93 (the last forecast year available in that document) indicates the same average annual growth rate of net profit as in the SAR (14.8 percent), although traffic grew by 11.7 percent per year, instead of the 7.5 percent per year estimated. For example, traffic handled in 1993 was 37 percent higher than the estimate at appraisal (29.8 million tons in the SAR vs. 40.8 million tons in the ICR). The net profit for HP in 1993 was Y 77.4 million (against Y 77.2 million forecast), mainly because the 19 percent annual increase in operating revenues (12.9 percent per year forecast in the SAR) was offset by high operating costs (a growth of 27.8 percent per year instead of the 14.9 percent forecast). In - 7 - 1994, operating costs grew even more, by 65.2 percent, to Y 615.9 million; during this time, traffic increased by 7.2 percent (to 43.8 million tons). 26. The SAR's conservative financial forecasts were developed when there were rigid tariff and price controls on almost every major commodity at the State level. As a result, cost increases and inflation were rare. In addition, the State had allocated major resources during the previous three decades (including the allocation of traffic for many commodities) and only charged users the planned prices. When the SAR was prepared, there was no indication that either the cost of resources or the rate of inflation would change. Therefore, financial forecasts assumed that port charges would remain virtually constant; and the rate of inflation would be low (in the range of 4.5 percent-7.5 percent during 1986-93). Although reasonable at the time, these assumptions now appear very conservative due to the much higher than expected cost-push inflation. 27. In recent years, price controls were removed from almost all commodities. During 1985-94, despite the strict control of the State on tariff increases, unit tariffs rose by an average of 10.5 percent per year. This increase, however, still could not match the 18.2 percent annual average unit cost hike, mainly due to the increased cost of fuel, materials, wages and depreciation-most of which have to be paid on the basis of market prices; and, increases in the latter have been much faster than in regulated Government tariffs. Highlights of the HD's income statements for selected years, as compared with the SAR forecast, are summarized below with details shown in Table 1.1, Annex 1. 1986 1990 1993 1994 SAR Actual I SAR Actual | SAR Actual | Actual ------------------------(Y n illion) ---------------- ------- Revenue 158.5 168.6 270.3 229.9 379.6 577.8 917.6 Less: Operatingcosts 58.5 72.1 107.1 117.4 158.9 372.9 615.9 Business tax 13.0 6.1 21.9 8.0 29.5 19.6 30.9 Other expense -- -- -- 78.6 163.7 Operating profit 87.0 90.4 141.3 104.5 191.2 106.7 107.1 Less: Nonoperating expense 3.3 3.4 14.9 14.4 54.1 18.3 10.2 Tax 58.1 55.7 11.3 59.9 11.0 11.0 Net profit 25.6 31.3 126.4 78.8 77.2 77.4 85.9 Averagenetfixedassets 526.2 459.1 955.4 609.6 1,311.9 853.3 1,041.3 Return on Average Net Fixed Assets (%) La 16.5 19.7 14.8 17.1 14.6 12.5 10.3 Operating Ratio Lb 40.2 44.4 43.1 52.9 45.4 66.8 69.5 da Return on Average Net Fixed Assets = Operating Profit/Average Net Fixed Assets. Lb Operating Ratio = Operating Costs/(Revenue-Business tax). - 8 - 28. Operating ratios deteriorated and were higher than the targets (for 1993, 66.8 percent against 45.4 percent in the SAR). This was due to rapid increases in costs with no matching increases in tariffs. Without a reformn in tariffs to expand the port's revenue, it is estimated that operating costs will exceed revenues in 2000 (based on average growth rates of operating costs and revenues during 1985-94). 29. The rate of return on average net fixed assets (RRFA), although still satisfactory, also declined-from 22.9 percent in 1985 to 12.5 percent in 1993 and 10.3 percent in 1994. This was largely because of the port's decreased profitability and the increase in fixed assets (the latter due to the project's completion). 30. GHB's fixed assets are being revalued (RFA) this year (1995). The RFA process should be completed by December 1995 and the overall value is expected to rise by 20 percent-50 percent. Due to this revaluation, the RRFA in 1995 is expected to be under 9 percent and further declines are forecast. 31. Present Financial Performance. Despite the rapid rise in operating costs, the port's financial position was still acceptable at the end of 1994. Debt service in 1993 was the same as the SAR forecast of 1.8 (2.6 in 1994). The percentage of net current assets in the form of cash, however, declined from 67 percent in 1985 to 65 percent in 1993 and 62 percent in 1994. During the same period, the share of accounts receivable increased from 12 percent to 25 percent and 28 percent, respectively. Despite the improved debt and equity ratio of 21.2 percent, the port's current ratio was 0.8 in 1994 (a ratio of less than 1.0 means the port has short-term solvency problems and needs to strengthen its finances). 32. Salient points in the port's balance sheet during these years are found in Table 1.2, Annex 1 and summarized below: 1986 1990 1993 1994 SAR Actual I SAR Actual I SAR Actual I Actual ---------------------------------(Y million--------------------------------- Assets: Net fixed assets: 629.8 1,042.3 629.6 1,297.7 1,000.6 1,082.1 Current assets: 29.3 49.8 94.2 122.1 272.7 382.8 427.9 Special fund assets La: 51.4 43.7 51.4 95.4 51.5 0.2 1.8 Total: 710.5 5i 1,187.9 847. 1,621.9 1.382.8 1,511.8 Liabilat & e uitv: Equity: 541.2 436.7 541.2 471.1 541.2 683.4 794.0 Port dev. funds: -- -- 240.0 16.7 447.8 Long-term debt: 80.0 65.4 298.0 155.6 503.4 285.1 213.9 Current liabilities: 23.4 18.2 42.8 42.4 63.6 414.3 503.9 Special funds: 65.9 68.2 65.9 161.3 65.9 IQWal I70.5 5 1,187.9 847.1 1,621.9 1,382.8 1.511.8 Debt/(debt+equity): 12.9 13.0 35.5 24.8 48.2 29.4 21.2 /a Including the deferred assets. - 9 - 33. Future Financial Performance. Under present financial arrangements, despite the high increase in operating costs, the port still enjoys relatively healthy liquidity, leverage, and profitability ratios due to the flat lump sum payments made to the State since the port was decentralized in 1988. This arrangement, as indicated previously, has not been altered in the last few years. The port's new responsibility for financing all its capital investments has not yet affected its cash flow (Table 1.3, Annex 1), but this is expected to weigh more heavily in the future. At present, it is implementing the second phase of the Xinsha project, for which an additional five berths will be built adjacent to the Bank-financed berths. Within the next three years, as construction costs will be substantial, there will be a heavy demand for capital. Thus, port authorities should explore many alternatives to improve financial conditions. 34. For the future critical issues which must be addressed include: (a) Tariffs: To offset the rapid increase in operating costs, port tariffs should be adjusted every year by either referring to the local general price index or charging higher rates for use of the modern, more efficient berths; (b) Revaluation of fixed assets (RFA): To improve the port's financial capacity to replace its aging equipment, RFA should be carried out more frequently than in the past; (c) Investments: Based on current tariffs, port construction will benefit ship and cargo owners more than the port; thus, the ports cannot cover all the costs. For this reason, either tariffs should be further increased, or the Government should finance some of the noncash generated infrastructure investments (including foundations for the berths, channels, breakwaters, and railways/roads in the port); (d) Foreign exchange risks: Due to fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate, the port paid an additional 130.0 million Yuan for its foreign loans (until the end of 1994). If this situation continues, it will deteriorate the port's financial condition. This factor should also be included in tariff adjustments; and (e) Management reforms: Some nonport activities, such as schools and hospitals, should be transferred to local agencies, and their costs not assumed by the port. Economic Evaluation 35. The economic analysis in this report was based on the reevaluation of data on traffic, operational performance, and the economic costs and benefits of project components since estimates were provided in the SAR. The methodology used in the ICR was similar to that in the SAR: - 10- (a) Capital investment and maintenance costs were revised to reflect December 1994 prices and included in the cost stream; (b) The benefits, also reflected in December 1994 prices, were included and consist of savings in port handling, ship port time (berth and waiting), and cargo port time (berth and waiting); (c) A project life of 20 years was assumed and the capital investment period for all berths was from 1987 to 1994; and (d) Benefits started to accrue for the general cargo berths in 1993. For fertilizer, iron ores and coal berths, benefits began in 1995. 36. When reviewing all the components together, the major negative affects of the increase in economic capital costs (by 14.2 percent), and the lower ship port costs (by 14- 30 percent) were offset by the much higher than expected cargo traffic (by 49 percent) (Annex 2). 37. After reassessing the revised data, the reevaluated economic internal rate of return (REIRR) was 32.7 percent, which is higher than the SAR estimate of 21.3 percent. A detailed analysis is presented in Annex 2. 38. The REIRR and SAR estimates of the project in terms of economic rate of return and net present value (NPV) are given below: SAR ICR Best estimate of rate of return (%) 21.3 32.7 NPV (12%, million Yuan) n.a. 1,756.2 C. MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING THE PROJECT 39. Major factors affecting the project are summarized as follows: Positive factors include: (a) The regional and national developing economy, which increased port traffic; (b) The Borrower's capacity to implement projects; (c) The simplicity of the project design; and (d) The close relationship between the Borrower and Bank. Negative factors include: (a) Cost increase during implementation that significantly raised port operating costs and offset the revenue increase; (b) A shortage of materials that delayed the implementation of equipment contracts; and (c) The Borrower's lack of familiarity with preparing bid documents for large, complex equipment. D. PROJECT SUSTAINABILITY 40. The project is considered sustainable. First, it extended the port facilities and improved productivity. Further, port traffic will grow along with the development of the Guangzhou area. In addition, GHB is a financially stable entity with the financial resources needed to maintain and operate the port efficiently. Moreover, with the modem equipment and extensive training offered under the project, GHB has the potential to increase the port's productivity even further and provide service competitively. E. BANK PERFORMANCE 41. The Bank's performance in identifying issues and preparing the project was good. Bank staff resources leading to appraisal were efficient (88.7 staff-weeks) as were those applied to supervision: the annual average input was 9.5 staff-weeks (see Table 12). 42. However, the Bank's performance could have been improved if more specific postqualification criteria had been recommended for bidding documents for large equipment (such as for the coal and iron ore handling system and fertilizer ship unloader). Except for the above, the Bank took a consistent position and provided appropriate guidance, when necessary. F. BORROWER PERFORMANCE 43. The Borrower's performance was generally good and preparation and implementation were adequate. As shown in Table 10, Part II, covenants were mostly met. Although HHB merged with GHB just before signing the legal documents (para. 5), GHB assumed all responsibility for the project and implemented it satisfactorily. G. ASSESSMENT OF OUTCOME 44. This project is assessed as satisfactory because it achieved all major objectives without any major shortcomings. - 12 - H. FUTURE OPERATIONS 45. The project provided the facilities needed to handle port traffic until around 2000. However, it should now be moving into the next phase, since preparing the plan and constructing facilities will require several years and congestion will mean a loss to the national economy. 46. The port's efficiency and financial performance will need to be monitored in the future, with productivity indicators such as: (a) ship waiting time, and (b) cargo handling volume per day per vessel, and moves (load/unload) of container boxes per hour per crane. These will be available from statistics provided by GHB. 47. GHB has begun to build five additional berths (Nos. 6-10). These will be financed locally and will meet the immediate demands of increased traffic (general cargo and grain). Construction is expected to be completed in 1998. 48. Also, GHB plans to construct new container, coal, grain and petroleum terminals as well as deepen the channels up to 11.5 m based on the recommendations in the master plan and channel studies. GHB would like to request Bank financing when the detailed plan is finalized. Given that Huangpu port is located in the area where economic development is high, the master plan should be frequently updated according to the change in traffic patterns. It is important that development in nearby areas and ports, such as Shenzhen, Hong Kong, and the Pearl River area, be considered. 1. LESSONS LEARNED 49. The key lessons are the following: (a) Bidding documents for procuring large equipment should provide specific postqualification criteria in order to avoid confusion in the evaluation period; (b) Tariffs should be adjusted every year, based on the local price index and cost increase factors such as variation of investment and exchange rate, or some more reasonable indicator(s). Because GHB has no authority to set its own tariffs, its revenue increase was offset by the price increase (that was higher than the tariff increase); (c) GHB still has room to fine-tune performance by improving its management techniques and periodically revaluing its fixed assets. GHB should also consider introducing more competition among terminal operators; and (d) The project's simple design, which involved a single executing agency under a single ministry, is considered a main reason why implementation was satisfactory. - 13 - PART II: STATISTICAL ANNEXES Table 1: Summary Of Assessments A. Achievement of objectives Substantial Partial Negligible Notapplicabk1 Macro policies x Sector policies x Financial objectives x Institutional development x Physical objectives x Poverty reduction x Gender issues x Other social objectives x Environmental objectives x Public sector management x Private sector development x Other (specify) x B. Project sustainability Likdy Unlikely Uncertain x Highly C. Bank performance satisfactoly Satisfactory Deficient Identification x Preparation assistance x Appraisal x Supervision x D. Boffower prformanc Preparation x Implementation x Covenant compliance x Operation (if applicable) x E. Assessment of outcome x - 14 - Table 2: Related Bank Loans/Credits Loan/credit title Purpose Year of approval Status Preceding operations 1. Three Ports Project expansion 1982 completed on 6/30/88 2. Tianjin Port Project expansion 1986 completed on 10/31/94 Following operations 1. Dalian Port Project expansion 1988 completed on 12/31/93 2. Ningbo and Shanghai Ports Project expansion 1988 to be completed on 12/31/95 3. Xiamen Port Project expansion 1988 completed on 3/31/95 Table 3: Project Timetable Date Date Item planned actual Identification - 6/84 Preparation 6/84 Appraisal 4/86 7/87 Negotiations 11/86 08/3-7/87 Board approval 01/87 10/06/87 Signature - 06/22/88 Effectiveness - 10/03/88 Project completion 12/31/93 12/31/94 Loan closing 12/31/93 12/31/94 - 15- Table 4: Loan Disbursements: Cumulative Estimated and Actual Penrod Planned Actual Credit (in SDR) Loan (in USS) Disbursements Cum. Disbursements Cum. Disbursements Cum. disbursements disbursements disbursements 7/31/87 - 9/30/87 10/1/87 - 12/31/87 1/1/88 - 3/31/88 2,000,000 2,000,000 4/1/88 - 6/30/88 2,000,000 4,000,000 7/31/88 - 9/30/88 7,000,000 11,000,000 10/1/88 - 12131/88 6,000,000 17,000,000 4,777,972.52 4,777,972.52 1/1/89 - 3/31/89 6,000,000 23,000,000 0.00 4,777,972.52 4/1/89 - 6/30/89 5,000,000 28,000,000 2,975,511.80 7,753,484.32 7/31/89 - 9/30/89 9,000,000 37,000,000 0.00 7,753,484.32 10/1/89 - 12/31/89 3,000,000 40,000,000 1,826,377.17 9,579,861.49 1/1/90 - 3/31/90 8,000,000 48,000,000 0.00 9,579,861.49 4/1/90 - 6/30/90 8,000,000 56,000,000 2,300,053.22 11,879,914.71 7/31/90 - 9/30/90 4,000,000 60,000,000 1,638,002.52 13,517,917.23 10/1/90 - 12/31/90 6,000,000 66,000,000 1,526,615.36 15,044,532.59 1/1/91 - 3/31/91 5,000,000 71,000,000 0.00 15,044,532.59 4/1/91 - 6/30/91 4,000,000 75,000,000 2,366,696.43 17,411,229.02 7/31/91 - 9/30/91 2,000,000 77,000,000 0.00 17,411,229.02 10/1/91 - 12/31/91 3,000,000 80,000,000 0.00 17,411,229.02 1/1/92 - 3/31/92 1,000,000 81,000,000 1,020,677.18 18,431,906.20 5,641,295.51 5,641,295.51 4/1/92 - 6/30/92 2,000,000 83,000,000 456,997.44 18,888,903.64 0.00 5,641,295.51 7/31/92 - 9/30/92 3,000,000 86,000,000 430,041.60 19,318,945.24 0.00 5,641,295.51 10/1/92 - 12/31/92 2,000,000 88,000,000 0.00 19,318,945.24 1,162,607.00 6,803,902.51 1/1/93 - 3/31/93 431,414.27 19,750,359.51 869,016.83 7,672,919.34 4/1/93 - 6/30/93 0.00 19,750,359.51 3,420,602.14 11,093,521.48 7/31/93 - 9/30/93 49,640.49 19,800,000.00 11,158,990.41 22,252,511.89 10/1/93 - 12/31/93 10,328,751.65 32,581,263.54 1/1/94 - 3/31/94 2,717,213.30 35,298,476.84 4/1/94 - 6/30/94 7,082,005.05 42,380,481.89 7/31/94 - 9/30/94 6,125,770.26 48,506,252.15 10/1/94 - 12/31/94 7,091,080.87 55,597,333.02 1/1/95 - 3/31/95 1,457,432.74 57,054,765.76 4/1/95 - 6/30/95 3,684,200.00 60,738,965.82 Cancellation: 2,261,034.18 Table 5: Key Indicators for Project Implementation Planned Actual 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Item\Year Start Complete Start Complete 1. Barge quay & working craft quay Aug-88 Jun-90 Feb-87 Feb-91 _ 2. Main quay, iron berths No.1-5 Aug-88 Apr-90 Oct-88 Feb-91 3. Construction cofferdam (production & Aug-88 Oct-89 Oct-88 Dec-90 living area, south bank revetnent) 4. Earth filling through pumping Feb-89 Apr-90 Oct-88 Feb-91 (prodiction & living area) 5. Public facilities in the port ( road, yard, May-90 Jul-92 Dec-90 Jul-93 warehouse, water supply & drainage) 6. Installation of equipment & testing Jul-90 Sep-92 Dec-92 Dec-94 7. Public facilities in the living area May-91 Jul-92 Dec-91 Dec-94 8. Water supply outside the port Sep-89 Jul-90 Jun-87 Mar-93 O 9. Power supply outside the port Oct-87 Oct-89 May-87 Dec-90 10. Highways & railways outside the port Jun-88 Sep-91 Oct-89 Dec-93 I1. Highway/railway brighes outside the Oct-87 May-91 Jul-88 May-93 _ port 12. Channel dredging May-90 Jul-92 Jul-90 Dec-92 - - - -------- Planned Actual - 17- Table 5B: Training Needs of Xinsha Terminal Planned Actual Item Coal Iron Bulk General Multi- Total Coal Iron Bulk General Multi- Total berth ore ferti- cargo purpose berth ore ferti- cargo purpose berth lizer berth berth berth lizer berth berth berth berth Stevedores 46 34 363 230 94 767 200 200 135 535 Equipment drivers 138 51 58 53 31 331 80 40 40 80 30 270 Truck drivers 40 20 30 50 50 30 180 Maintenance technicians 280 30 30 20 20 20 120 Electric workers 60 10 10 10 10 40 Water & sewage workers 50 10 5 5 20 Material labors 50 5 5 10 Management 110 10 20 10 20 5 65 Cargo allocation clerks 40 5 5 10 5 5 30 Warehousemen 60 5 5 10 5 5 30 Tallyman 40 2 2 2 2 8 Civil works maintenance 30 10 10 10 10 10 50 Others 45 15 10 15 40 Total 1 903 200 167 387 402 242 1.398 Distribution by Year: 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total Planned 200 400 600 703 1,903 Actual 88 96 520 164 300 230 1,398 Overseas Training: Person Duration Person*month Management 50 1.0 51.5 Technicians 53 0.7 37.6 Workers 3 0.9 2.7 - 18- Table 5C: Procurement (under ICB for over $1.0 mln. contracts) Prequallfication for civil works PQ Bank's Issuing Closing of PQ Bank's documents no PQ PQ Evaluation no to the Bank objection documents submission to the Bank objection 1. Marine works May-87 Jun-87 Jul-87 Sep-87 Sep-87 Oct-87 2. Land works Mar-89 Apr-89 May-89 Jun-89 Aug-89 Oct-89 Procurement procedures Item Contract Bid docu- Bid Evaluation Signing Evaluation amount ments to opening report to contract period (USS,000) the Bank the Bank (months) Civil works 1. Marine works 30,425 Jun-87 Jan-86 Mar-88 Jul-88 3 2. Land works 9,567 May-89 Jun-90 Jul-90 Sep-90 2 Goods Coal & ore berths: A-l Handling system 41397 Mar-90 Oct-90 Feb-91 Dec-91 4 A-2 Environment protection system 1,233 Mar-90 Oct-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 4 A-3 Power supply & lighting system 2,161 Mar-90 Oct-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 4 General cargo B-I Portal cranes (2 units) 1,120 Aug-90 Jun-91 Oct-91 Dec-91 4 Fertilizer berths: C-1 Screw ship unloader 2,650 Jul-91 Jan-92 Feb-93 Mar-93 13 C-2 Conveying & bagging system 3,450 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jun-92 Aug-92 5 Additional Equipment D- I Portal cranes (7 units) 3,551 Dec-93 Jan-94 Feb-94 Mar-94 I D-2 Tug boats (2 units) 4,680 Dec-93 Jan-94 Feb-94 Mar-94 I D-3 Pushing & collecting machine (I Iunits) 1,145 Dec-93 Jan-94 Feb-94 Apr-94 1 - 19- Table 6: Key Indicator for Project Operation Operational Efficiency (i) Berth Throughput (,000 tons) Existing Planned Actual 1985 1990 1995 2000 1994 Coal 3,620 8,300 10,450 15,450 14,291 Petroleum 2,966 4,500 5,000 7,150 11,936 Iron ores 445 1,200 1,500 1,800 1,077 Steel 2,421 2,480 2,850 3,450 4,027 Construction material 18 0 0 0 121 Cement 348 750 1,150 1,550 1,872 Timber 672 705 970 1,300 704 Non-metallic ore 160 760 850 1,100 335 Fertilizer 1,394 1,850 2,000 2,150 1,478 Salt 108 250 250 300 14 Grain 1,416 1,830 2,300 2,300 3,603 Others 3,235 2,875 5,680 6,450 4,292 IQoal 16803 25.500 33,000 43,000 432750 Containers (,000 TEUs) 309 800 1,500 2,000 1,452 (ii) Average Berth Time of Vessels (Unloading) Coal 7.1 5.2 Petroleum 3.3 3.0 Iron ores 11.1 6.7 Steel 16.7 4.6 Fertilizer 21.2 12.4 Grain 13.4 5.9 Others 13.3 2.1 Container 4.4 0.6 (iii) Average Berth Time of Vessels (Loading) Fertilizer 2.6 3.2 Grain 9.8 1.9 Others 10.0 1.0 Container 2.4 0.7 Table 7: Studies Included in Project Studies Purpose as defined at appraisal Status Impact of study Special Design Review GHB's design and assist in GHB recruited three foreign consulting The consultants'conclusions and preparing the required design for the port's firms and satisfactorily implemented. recommendations were applied to the future expansion. structure design of the project. Management and Identify problems and propose The study was included in the Master Plan The recommendations, such as (a) Operation recommendations to improve the efficiency Study and satisfactorily completed. converting 2 coal berths (# 1-2) to fertilizer Improvement of the port berths and (b) increasing storage capacity at Xingang, were implemented. Updating Master Update the existing master plan of the port The study was completed and submitted to The recommendations of expansion of berths Plan Study (by to meet the requirements of the increasing MOC for review and authorization in (#6-10) have been implemented, and the local funds) traffic up to year 2005. February 1992. construction is underway. o Navigation Channel Estimate the costs of increasing the channel GHB implemented the study with GHB plans to deepen the channel from 9m Study (by local depth and width either by dredging or by consultation of Guangzhou Water to 11.5-12.5m in accordance with the funds) river training works or both, and determine Transportation Engineering & Design recommendation of the study. the economic feasibility of the project and Institute, Chong Shan University, Nanging proper timing. Hydraulic Science Institute, Tianjin Hydraulic Science Institute and the 4th Navigation Design Institute. - 21 - Table 8A: Project Cost L11 F _mi TobW LaeW Foiw TOAW LA FOMa Toal Losal pam ToWl - (Ya=.OSC- - (USS.OD)- -(YRM.0)- - a00m- 1. Civm WaW Mainwh(coabicUml-5 16,310 25,271 41,531 4,406 6,830 11,238 27,350 67.904 95,254 5,113 9,293 14,406 Bapquqy a _wu'b- 7.481 9,750 17,231 2,022 2635 4,657 33 32,165 40965 1.645 4,402 6,047 Dih 4,332 7,370 11,702 1,171 19m 3,163 6.730 15,052 21,782 1,259 2,060 3,318 DredinnuuumrAdammi.,kqtmy 5.133 31,705 36,833 1,387 ,569 9.956 5,050 3,300 3,850 944 520 1,464 Roadwanymddin p-t 5.510 11,093 16,603 1,489 2gg9 4,487 10Of20 7,65 1,435 1,967 1.090 3.057 Raluymp it 1,832 3I1 2,650 495 221 716 2,536 0 2,536 474 0 474 Powrply inport 2,524 7,300 9,824 632 1,973 2,655 3,004 0 3,004 562 0 562 Waw1wq wp*ymudu_p 1.584 3,106 4,692 423 340 1,268 6,260 4,750 11,010 1,170 650 1,320 Sea p teamipluid 3Il 1,273 2,091 221 344 565 4,670 0 4,670 S73 0 873 Azc.e ol nul dA towe 1,2 S 13,806 15,096 34B 3,732 4,080 680 5,312 5,992 127 727 354 Awalybu0khg 8,693 17,523 26.216 2,349 4,736 7,035 50,150 0 50,150 9,376 0 9,376 Vaddw oeilohard 1,036 3,275 4,311 280 gg5 1.165 23,210 11,392 39,602 5,274 1,559 6,S33 Ta yib S,916 1,025 9,941 2,410 277 2,687 3,669 0 3,669 636 0 636 Pqla nm mdlord omluado 9,620 0 9,620 2,600 0 2,60 0 0 0 0 0 Teat,m. vaNW ooraltin 6,197 0 6,197 1,675 0 1,675 3,337 0 3,337 1,661 0 1,S61 DiP 9.339 1.228 10,567 2,524 332 2AM56 6,416 0 6,416 1,199 0 1,199 Livinm 27,863 3,197 31,065 7,532 a64 8,396 22,173 0 22.173 4,146 0 4,146 Chtd adredging 43,129 49,702 97,831 13,006 13,433 26,441 74,452 0 74,452 13,919 0 13,919 Rsllway ud hjy wayoue ofpcet 44,035 45,547 89,632 11,915 12,310 24,225 99,320 0 99,320 i3,56 0 is,5" Radw nadhinbwaybridge 34,95 35,742 70,337 9,350 9,660 19,010 76.27M 0 76,270 14.259 0 14,259 Waeravdpcw outdapot 10,683 4,048 14,731 2,367 1,094 3,961 3,260 0 6,260 If4 0 1,544 F.mdlfre(ixz 4,081 0 4,033 1,105 0 1,105 9,233 0 9,233 1,736 0 1,736 0 0 0 0 0 Subtoal 260,061 272,7 532144 70,23 73,725 144,012 462S700 143,339 611.039 f6,302 20,301 106,803 2. Eqwmpt TeIacounnubati&navigatoen 0 5,121 5,121 0 1,334 1,384 10,456 10,456 0 1,431 1,431 H:IaMeqon 12,002 157,331 169,333 3,244 42f522 45,766 421.110 421,110 0 57,631 57,631 PotesvnoboazA h 14,422 6,383 20,805 3,898 1,725 5,623 45,261 45,15 91,076 S,462 6,270 14,732 Subtotal 26,424 163,335 195,259 7,142 45,631 52,773 45,261 477,381 522,642 3,462 65.332 73,794 3. Teal AaulnmAUaidng 21,90 5,554 27,144 5,835 If,0 7,336 35,729 9,477 45,206 6,680 1,297 7,977 0 Subtotal 21,590 5,554 27.14 5,335 I,0 7,336 35,729 9.477 45,206 6,630 1,297 7.977 4. T and Duat 45.049 0 45,049 12,175 0 12,175 Total Bue Cost 353.124 447,171 300,295 95,439 120,357 216,296 Physialconbpmcys(IDX) 22,649 44,162 72,811 7,743 11,936 19,679 Total 31,773 491,333 173,106 103,132 132,793 235,975 Pdeeo 08encc 37,152 127,991 215,143 6,076 9,155 15,231 GrndTo 461925 619M2M 1249 109 2l 14194 25L206 51690 625193 U l IOL164 K.23 13573 Exoinaige rat: RMBIO-USS 115349 (htX RMB to USS) USSI.0-RMfB7.307 (tm USS to LMB) - 22 - Table 8B: Project Financing (US$ million) Source of Financing Planned Actual Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total IBRD 63.0 63.0 61.9 61.9 IDA 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 Governmment 109.3 53.9 163.2 101.6 0.0 101.6 Total 109.3 141.9 251.2 101.6 86.9 188.6 - 23 - Table 8C: Allocation of Loan Proceeds Planned Actual Category Amount of the Amount of the Amount of the Amount of the Credit Allocated Loan Allocated Credit Disbursed Loan Disbursed (in SDR) (in US$) (in SDR) (in US$) (1) Civil Works 17,400,000 8,000,000 15,300,000.00 3,475,081.57 (2) Goods 2,400,000 34,000,000 3,700,000.00 57,224,961.99 (3) Consultants' 0 1,450,000 800,000.00 38,922.26 services and training (4) Unallocated 0 19,550,000 0.00 0.00 Cancellation 2,261,034.18 Total 19,800,000 63,000,000 19,800,000.00 63,000,000.00 -24 - Table 9: Economic Cost, Benefit and Major Financial Indicators SAR ICR Total Traffic (1994): /1 31.3 43.8 Of which: General Cargo (mln. ton) 7.9 13.6 Iron ores (mln. ton) 1.4 1.1 Coal (mln. ton) 7.2 9.9 Financial (1993, in %): Return on average net fixed assets 14.6 12.5 Operating ratio 45.4 66.8 Debt service coverage 1.8 2.6 Debt/(debt + equity) 48.2 21.2 Economic (Decmber 1994 prices): Total cost (million Yuan) 1,077.4 1,181.3 NPV (million Yuan) n.a. 1,834.1 Economic rate of return (in %) 21.3 34.7 /1: Huangpu port district in Guangzhou port Table 10: Status of Legal Covenents Agreement Section Status Original Date Revised Date Description of Covenant Comments Development 4.01(a) OK 06/22/88 Borrower to maintain proper records Credit and accounts. 4.01 (b) OK Borrower to have accounts audited Audited reports were and furnished to the Bank not later received in time and than six months after the end of each reviewed by Bank. fiscal year. Project 2.01 OK 06/22/88 GHB to undertake a navigation Studies were completed by channel study, update Master Plan GHB and submitted to and a study of intermodal cargo MOC for review in 1992. distribution. 4.01(a) OK GHB to maintain proper records and accounts. 4.01(b) OK GHB to have accounts audited and Audited reports were submitted to the Bank for review not received in time and later than six months after the end of reviewed by Bank. the fiscal year. tlO.doc - 26 - Table 11: Bank Resources: Staff Input FY 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Total Prepappraisal 15.9 46.9 62.8 Appraisal 23.7 2.2 25.9 Negotations 3.6 7.6 11.2 Supervision 2.5 9.4 11.7 11.6 10.9 9.2 11.2 66.5 Completion Total 166.4 - 27 - Table 12: Bank Resources: Mission Stage of Month/ Number of Days in Specialized Performance rating Types of project cycle year persons field staff skills Implemen- Develop- problems represented tation ment status objectives Identification 04/84 6 5 EGR, EC, FA, OP Preparation 11/84 5 7 EGR, EC, FA, OP Pre-appraisal 05/85 5 14 EGR, EC, FA, OP,PRO Appraisal 03/86 4 14 EGR, EC, FA, OP Supervision 1 09/86 1 4 PRO Supervision 2 10/88 3 5 EGR, FA, OP, 1 1 Supervision 3 09/89 2 4 OP, FAIEC I I Supervision 4 05/90 2 7 OP, FA/EC 2 1 Imple. delay Supervision 5 11/90 2 5 OP, FA/EC 1 1 Supervision 6 08/91 3 4 OP, EGR, FA/EC 2 1 Imple. delay Supervision 7 03/92 2 2 OP, EGR Supervision 8 09/92 2 4 OP, FA/EC 1 1 Supervision 9 03/93 2 5 OP, EGR I 1 Supervision 10 08/93 2 3 OP, EGR 2 2 Imple. delay Supervision 11 12/93 2 3 EGR, FA/EC 2 2 Supervision 12 12/94 2 3 EGR, FA/EC S S Completion - 29 - Appendix A APPENDIX A: ICR PREPARATION MISSION'S AIDE-MEMOIRE April 7-19, 1995 1. A World Bank mission comprising Messrs. T. Tsutsumi and H. K. Yen visited Huangpu Port from April 7 to 19, 1995 to prepare the Implementation Completion Report (ICR). The mission wishes to thank the officials of the Government of China (GOC), Ministry of Communication (MOC), as well as the management and staff of Guangzhou Harbour Bureau (GHB) for the courtesies and cooperation extended to it during this visit. 2. This Aide-Memoire summarizes the agreements reached with GHB officials on the preparation of the ICR. The agreements of the mission, as incorporated in this Aide- Memoire, are subject to review and confirmation by Bank management. The View of the Bank and GHB 3. The Bank mission and GHB have the same view on the project implementation: The project was satisfactory completed on December 31, 1994. ICR Preparation 4. The Bank started preparation of the ICR from December 1994 (during the previous supervision mission), requesting for GHB providing necessary information and data. The Bank received draft information and data in February 1995. 5. The mission visited the project site and discussed with GHB on the preparation of the ICR. The mission has obtained the necessary information and reached agreement on the following actions to be taken: (a) GHB will review the draft ICR which the Bank ICR mission left; GHB will send their comments to the Bank by May 6, 1995; (b) GHB will send its own evaluation of proJect implementation for Appendix B of the ICR to the Bank by May 13, 1995; (c) the Bank will send a draft ICR to the Borrower, MOC and GHB (to be confirmed by MOC), incorporating the GHB's evaluation by May 20, 1995; (d) the Borrower (MOC and GHB)'s comments will be sent to the Bank by June 5, 1995; and (e) the Bank will finalize the ICR and send to the Board of the Bank by June 30, 1995. April 18, 1995 Huangpu, China - 30 - Appendix B APPENDIX B: BORROWER'S CONTRIBUTION TO THE ICR PROJECT REVIEW FROM BORROWER'S PERSPECTIVE Section A ' . Xinsha Terminal Project of Huangpu port of Guangzhou Ilarbour Bureau is an important project in China which was implemented by GHB, by applying World Bank loans for in-port project (including marine works, mechanical equipment and major civil construction) through ICB. The in-port project construction was officially commenced in October 1988, and the first construction project was marine works. The major projects had completed and put into operation by the end of 1994. The whole Xinsha Terminal Project is intend to be accepted by the State Planning Committee in the first half of 1995. Berths No. 3 and No. 5 of them put into simple operation in the middle of December of 1992, mainly handling bulk material, and have unloaded and loaded more than 400 tons of bulk materials separately since then. 2. The project design is advanced and reliable in general layout, equipment parameters, features and structure type. In general, project objectives are achieved and the project is a success. That greatly expand Guangzhou port's capacity in cargo traffic by 9.1 million tons capacity increasing each year. 3. For construction of the Xinsha project, it adopted large amounts of modem advanced techniques so that major effectiveness have been made. In marine works, new structure type of steel pile cellular structure were used. As a result, construction period has been shortened, cost been saved, the quality of the construction been improved. Meanwhile, a great number of special personnel were trained and grow up. Necessary adjustment of the handling processing line of bulk fertilizer berth has been carried out, that canceled the bulk fertilizer storehouse and the relevant equipment. Thus, it reduced middle links in the line and reduce the investment as well as the maintenance risk for the bulk storehouse and its equipment. The handling processing line of coal and iron ore berth has been considerable improved., the number of necessary equipment increased, so that every position of the whole system has been strengthened, improved the handling capacity to satisfy the need of the great increasing of coal and ore by the Guangdong district. Especially the great improvement for the coal barge loading system to solve some vulnerable spots of the original system. The modification has resulted in a considerable important of perfect technology and the improvement of capacity. - 31 - Appendix B 4. Construction of the following components such as computer managing system, telecommunication system and VTS, etc. under this project have greatly enhanced the comprehensive capacity and function of Guangzhou port. 5. Procurement of over one-hundred units of handling machine, two tugging port boats, coal and ore handling system equipment and fertilizer handling system equipment in three special berths were carried out strictly in accordance with the Guidelines set by the World Bank through ICB. It provides a solid foundation for the development and traffic increase of Guangzhou port so that it will accelerate the Guangzhou port to be an international modem one. 6. The international supervision system has been imported and the method of Sino- foreign cooperation for the civil works construction supervision was adopted. For the construction of the marine works and land works, a foreign consulting firm was employed to provided consultant and training service, and the supervisors from this company and the personnel of GHB jointly supervised the construction of the marine works and land works. Consultant service by the foreign consultants, construction supervision and local and overseas training enable technical and management staff from GHB to widen their view, learn and obtain some international practice, advanced technology and management experiences which have enhanced the staffs' ability, and ensured the project quality. 7. Particular attention was given to environmental protection in accordance with the regulation of state. Environmental protection facility such as sewage treatment system and dust proof was equipped at the relevant project contract. 8. Equipment procurement under this project was executed by an specific department which comprised experienced persons. They have been trained. They familiar with technical and commercial business affairs, be skillful at computer operation, with good ability in English and rich project managing experience. Therefore, the evaluating speed of the project was quicker compared with other ports. It took generally about four months from the bids opening to supplying evaluation reports to the World Bank, and the quicker ones among them even took only one month. A specific project managing system was organized for the construction of important system bids. 9. The project design was basically undertaken by the Chinese design institute, i.e. the Fourth Design Institute of Navigation Engineering of MOC. In general, the design is a success. The design institute made a great effort to ensure the satisfactory execution of the project. 10. Technical documents for marine works, land works and procurement of equipment system bid were prepared by design institute, and assisted by a foreign company and consultants and GHB; most technical documents for the bids of other equipment procurements were prepared by GHB. Some reliable and pipe techniques were incorporated in the well-drafted technical specification which fully comply with local actual situation. The tendering work was actually successful. - 32 - Appendix B 11. In accordance with the requirement of port master plan and development, in the last project period, more than 30 units and 2 units of large tugging boat of equipment of six bids were procured by using the Bank's loan savings-more than 10 million Dollars. It has enhanced the comprehensive capacity of Xinsha port. The tendering work by using the Bank's loan savings is a great success, and the speed was quick (it took only one month to evaluate up to supply all the evaluate report to the World Bank). The result of tendering was satisfactory. 12. No. 3 and No. 5 berths began operation simply at the end of 1992, mainly bulk materials handling. There have been nearly 200 ships which were equivalent to more than 4 million tons have been unloaded since them. The situation of the relevant mechanical and electrical equipment as well as facilities in these two berths was quite good. 13. Generally, the project was implemented strictly following the SAR. Marine works, land works, environmental protection system, power supply and lighting system, handling system equipment of fertilizer berths, portal crane and all mobile machinery system were completed and delivered in the contracted period. 14. Only the completion of handling and controlling system in berth No. I and berth No. 2 has delayed for almost one year due to the local situation and experience of the contractor itself. 15. Regarding the evaluation of the screw ship unloader, because there were differences in deciding which bidder was qualified to award the contract, it took a long time to investigate and study, which caused the evaluation prolongation for another eight months. Finally after the joint efforts of both parts of buyer and seller, the implementation progress of this bid satisfied the requirement of which all the equipment of the fertilizer berth completed at the same time. Section B 16. The ICR drafted by the World Bank is comprehensive. It describes completely all the major items of the project executed and analysis provide is mainly correct and complies with the actual conditions. 17. With respect to the data of each item in the list of ICR. We acknowledge that they correct and fully show the overall situation. Section C 18. From the project appraisal to reimbursement deadline, the World Bank was very positive and effective. The Guangzhou Harbour Bureau appreciates all officials and experts from the World Bank who participated in this project for their efforts and their contributions made to the port development. It gave us deep impression of their strong sense of seriously responsibility, scientific way in management and spirit of job respect. - 33 - Appendix B 19. During the whole implementation period, we have been keeping a close cooperation and mutual respect with the Technical Division, Communication Division, and Disbursement Division of the Bank. Especially with the guidance on all aspects granted by the Bank's experts, Guangzhou Harbour Bureau overcame various difficulties in project executions and completed the project satisfactorily. 20. Each site supervision mission from the World Bank made a significant effect on the project execution. They inspected the site situation twice a year and collected first hand information, resolved problems in the construction to accelerate the construction procedure by strengthening a mutual understanding and trust so that an easy understanding can be reached. The Bank's mission gave us great support on savings application for procurement of container cranes, etc. and also especially extension of closing date and reallocation of the loan. The Bank officers' instruction, understanding and quick responses to our request facilitated implementation. _ 34 _ Appendix C 0 ' Xx ; 'L Jtf.e- -~ ~ 9 4I - g: Ii~~~~~~~~~OL Ii W,/Sy /;i Ii§}' I ~EiL,.XAL~I - 35 - ANNEX I ANNEX 1: FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 0 -36 - ANNEX I Table 1.1: CEINA: GUANGZHOU HARBOR BUREAU: Income Statement (luangpu District) (Dcember31, Y 'ON) i19 l9JS 1n?7 I1t 1969 199e 1S91 1992 1993 194 Trmff ('COOD tow) Whole pot 22.060 26,320 32,652 33.225 29.067 34,734 41,084 50,071 54,945 Pxt athority 16,803 17,940 20,7Qt 25.798 25.064 21.892 27,023 33,471 40,315 43,752 Revenue Hling 88.428 106,755 137,226 163.365 176,394 172.375 215.416 270,051 419,433 634,425 Storge 30,639 31,742 33,165 37,965 47,334 35.547 37,330 45,914 56,075 S7.952 Othe 22,548 25,515 32.355 3J.404 22,412 16.990 19,534 35,124 67.296 126,125 Msrkeliig 2,065 4.539 3.625 5.755 7,792 4,957 7,910 5,543 34,959 69,112 Subtotal 143.730 1611.51 26371 250A9g 2S4.42 229g, 2S0 DM15662 577.UI 917.614 Operating Costa HFndling 34.395 45,S79 62.061 73,827 83,630 92.330 126,434 163,646 248,514 399,903 Storae 4,966 7,323 3,477 11,504 14,740 12S39S 13,720 29,510 31,165 48,SS6 Ow 11.050 14,527 16,362 19,743 9,311 3,210 12,181 32033 55,S49 95,507 Marketing 1,943 3,369 3.032 4,744 6,191 3,968 6.399 5.782 37,325 71,621 Subtotal ALM 72 te3 1I4.1U lilSi7 117.406 164M4 230971 372m 5 619 S17 Busine Tax Hanlig 2.362 3,454 4,459 5,495 5.77S 5,532 6,914 8,663 13,633 20.706 Stoage 1,639 1,703 1,791 2,054 2574 1,901 X000 Z457 3,031 4,306 00w 738 357 1,087 1,235 723 526 547 1,160 1.762 3.164 Mwketig 11 65 24 49 71 48 193 390 1.143 2.261 Subteal Uj 2Jfl l, liii LS.9 Lim L.7 ILS.2 am21 Opetng Prlt HAndling 51,171 57,422 70,706 U4,543 82.436 74.513 32,068 97,742 157.281 213,816 Storage 24,034 2Z211 22,397 24,407 30.020 20.743 16,660 13,947 21,379 34,260 Other 10,760 10,131 14,406 17,371 12,373 3,254 6,856 1.931 9,635 27,454 Marketing 111 605 569 962 1,530 941 313 (629) (3,509) (4.770) Subtotal I6J126 1036 A 127283 126.414 10446 10402 112.I99 18533 270.760 00w pae ) - - - - - - - 73,596 163,629 Total SALM 22M 15MS 127.283 126.414 10445 10i402 112.I 106.740 107.I3 Edutixoew qdeW - - - - - 150 Ig0 236 0 0 Non-op. incorts 119 134 397 1.475 224 1,234 1,018 2,513 1,254 9,911 Non-op. e 2593 3,405 4,674 9,942 11.790 15.447 17,031 23,335 19,575 20.093 Prmlt befoiretaus tIn LIM9 104L311 lWll 114.S4Sl tOMI 2Mn 1S MAI tMA Icome tx 46,009 47,374 1.t70 1,S70 1,370 1.370 1.70 1,370 Adjusbranttsx 12034 3.422 - - - - - - - - Pqment to Stes - - 9,450 9,450 9,450 9.450 9,450 9,450 1 I.00 11,000 Not profit 2Iln h l ILMI 107AM2 huh 2s.m z7 NM 7 Sim Return an avemp net flzed sato (%) 37.8 19.7 26,2 113 11.0 17.1 16.3 16.S 12.5 10.3 Operating rato 22.9 44.4 45.4 47.4 4LS5 52.9 60.7 67.2 S 69.5 - 37 - ANNEX I Table 1.2: CHINA: GUANGZHOU HARBOR BUREAU: Balance Sheet (Huangpu District) (December 31, Y '000) 1965 1986 1967 198 196 199 1M 1992 1993 194 Anal Fixed assets (FA) At cost 499,453 580,805 677,065 733,459 689,404 728.280 771,425 910.175 1.031,032 1,153,531 Lass deprciation 76.644 36,079 98,460 116,652 106,531 126,854 159,633 233,844 2S1,305 346,950 Subtotal 422.8 4947 SM05 516.807 S2.73 601.426 611.792 676331 74S7Z77 S06M1 Candici inprope - - - - - 7,609 7,609 7,609 174.016 194,209 O0r long-tam iiwesbon 286 2S6 363 404 6,686 20,542 21,39S 22,1S6 76,80S 61,290 Tet et FA 4l. 4f.012 MM 617211 589m5. 629S577 60.7" 706.126 L000551 1LOI080 Current asts Inaty 9,607 13,714 16,998 19,209 19,505 21,472 23,827 29.656 38,314 45,971 Receivables 5,341 7,993 7,394 21.277 25,812 18,572 25,021 41,852 94,304 116,253 Cmh 30,029 2S.10 50,102 66,115 68,692 S2.098 65,583 101.302 249,419 263,692 Subtotal mm 498 74.494 106.601 114.009 12L142 134.431 17210 382.037 427916 Spec. fund muds 51,455 43,713 75,973 74,209 94,762 95,423 133,065 222,0SS - - Defemed ssex - - - - - - - - 216 1,789 Total Asets 519-27 SU40 729U35 79L021 798330 147142 90Z295 Lt1024 132 I04 117 LiabilIts A Eaultv Sftte f,A(equty) 406,535 436,745 452,732 478,863 445,892 471,074 487.38S 571,040 683,413 793,9S5 Internal funds for port development 0 0 30,650 35,304 30,257 16,693 24,700 34,045 - - IT loans 23,735 65,442 133,835 138.347 151,913 155,570 180.421 218,917 285,084 213,876 Curret lIbs. 23,346 18,149 24,324 35,339 21,930 42,460 49,844 S2,341 414,307 503,924 Special lual 65.911 68.204 87,94 110.168 148,338 161,345 165,942 194,681 - - Total LIs Equity 519M7 Si_ 729.435 79S.021 792330 U4.142 2 L02 10024 LflA2 1-J17l Debt/(debequity) S.S 13.0 22.8 22.4 25.4 24.S 27.0 27.7 29.4 21.2 Current raIl 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.0 S.2 2.9 2.7 2.1 6.9 0.6 - 38 - ANNEX I Table 1.3: CHINA: GUANGZHOU HARBOR BUREAU: Sources And Applications Of Funds (Huangpu Distrid) (Dnv.her3l,Y '000) IffS 194 1967 136 19 196 11 Im 1993 194 NetproGt 25.609 31,302 92,931 107.496 103,52 7,m773 78.339 30,563 77,419 35,949 Deprcistiou 7.654 14.072 16,913 31,913 27,194 46,615 42075 53,614 51,313 65,645 Stoecontibution 70,212 21,211 504 10,000 0 0 0 20,000 10,000 15,000 B aowi -JRn 23,735 I1925 26,332 42,918 25,364 39.224 16,454 51,795 153,037 400,910 Cdi., 0 20,000 0 0 46,000 55,773 75,990 127,030 79.730 95,000 Odin 0 6,035 1,347 0 0 6,623 30,732 51,593 136,562 0 Subtota 1221 Jif AM 1277 192J2u 202fI 22LR0& 24J4 396 0L1 fl A Capit lep. 101,601 38,346 75,747 72,232 104,279 147,693 105,729 191,921 262,845 567,192 Odim _ ined t 0 7.979 1.337 6,633 6,537 3,304 30,732 51,593 186,564 0 Special ldx p. 30,795 46,975 35,539 73,525 59,569 73,174 87,177 122,747 111,454 79,830 Loonarepaymnt 0 1,760 6,500 13,795 11,334 15,239 15,597 17,502 69,992 59.170 C0uWew/ital (6.235) 11.956 (3.490) 5,079 13,240 (25,303) 1.420 t9,S37) (270.356) (53.011) Sbt*W 1fa 107m16 1uiM133 176n314 200m 00 w 213az 240.6 373m26 359.9m 8U23 Net funds flaw 1.049 (1,921) 21,994 16,013 2,577 13.406 3,435 15,719 14,117 14,273 Opening balnce 23,980 30,029 23,103 50,102 66,115 63,692 S8O93 85,583 101,302 249,419 Clsing balane am IL30 21 S0 ILI gmlS I= L%A 101h3U 2 249J19 23S692 D/S covwr 25. 1&9 7.4 11.5 32 7.3 3.0 1.3 2.6 -39- ANNEX2 ANNEX 2: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS A. TRAFFIC 1. As shown in Table 2.1, traffic in the Huangpu District (HP) of the Guangzhou Harbor Bureau (GHB) grew faster than the SAR forecast. For example, in 1994, it was 40 percent higher. HP traffic, as well as that related to the project berths, is summarized as follows. TRAFFIC HANDLED BY THE PORT (MILLION TONS) The SAR The ICR Of which Of which Year Total (1) (2) (3) (4) Total (1) (2) (3) (4) 1985 16.8 6.2 0.4 2.2 8.88 16.8 6.2 0.4 2.2 8.80 1990 25.5 7.1 1.2 5.3 13.58 21.9 6.8 0.6 5.2 12.55 1991 26.9 7.3 1.3 6.0 14.76 27.0 5.8 0.5 5.8 12.04 1992 28.3 7.5 1.3 6.7 15.53 33.5 10.5 0.8 8.4 19.57 1993 29.8 7.7 1.4 7.0 16.02 40.8 13.3 1.0 9.6 23.92 1994 31.3 7.9 1.4 7.2 16.56 43.8 13.6 1.1 9.9 24.49 1995 33.0 8.3 1.5 7.5 17.52 44.7 13.2 1.1 10.3 24.63 2000 43.0 9.3 1.8 11.5 22.55 55.0 18.1 1.5 11.5 31.06 Average growth p.a. (%): 1985-94 7.2 2.8 13.9 13.8 7.2 11.2 9.1 10.3 17.9 11.9 (1) General cargo traffic (including fertilizer traffic). (2) Iron ore traffic. (3) Coal traffic (foreign and domestic). (4) Subtotal 2. Despite the severe economic recession in 1990 and 1991, traffic grew an average of 11.2 percent a year during 1985-94, compared with 7.2 percent estimated in the SAR; during 1990-94, it was 18.9 percent, instead of 5.3 percent a year forecast. Based on the -40 - ANNEX2 economic activities and long-term development plans in this area, the increase over the next decades (1995-2020) is estimated to be approximately 2.2 percent a year. 3. General cargo traffic: Traffic in 1994 was much higher than estimated, by about 72 percent. For the last four years (1990-94), it grew by 19.0 percent a year, instead of the predicted 2.9 percent a year, and the port needs additional general cargo berths to meet the demand. Thus, GHB has begun to construct four general cargo berths and one grain berth adjacent to the berths financed by the Bank. 4. Iron ore traffic: Most of the iron ore is shipped from foreign sources to meet domestic demand. It is highly sensitive to local energy supplies: Without sufficient supply, iron imports are replaced by the finished products (such as iron and steel). In 1994, for example, iron ore imports were about 21 percent lower than the SAR projection, while traffic in iron and steel was about 43 percent higher than estimated (4.0 million tons vs 2.8 million tons), 75 percent of which was imported. Based on current forecasts, iron ore traffic should continue to grow, but less than the SAR estimate. 5. Coal traffic: Coal traffic in 1994 was about 37 percent higher than the SAR estimate. The high demand for this import reflects the local economy's rapid economic growth, highly dependent on energy imports. In 1994, all the coal traffic was due to imports from domestic sources (in the north) and all the coal was consumed locally. The strong demand has led to congestion at the coal handling terminals. Without additional facilities, existing terminals (including the project component) may be totally congested by 2000. B. SHIP TIME ANALYSIS 6. General Cargo Carriers: Before the project, in 1985, general cargo carriers spent an average of 12.4 days as against 4.6 days after the project, in 1994, of which the ship waiting time in the port (nonproductive time plus weather stoppage) accounted for 8.5 days and 2.5 days, respectively. Over the same period, average working time per ship (productive time at berth) decreased from 3.9 days to 2.1 days due to the improved handling. Thus, without the project, the added traffic demand would have lengthened the ship waiting time (Table 2.2). 7. Fertilizer Carriers: The number of port days per ship decreased from 20.8 in 1985 to 11.4 days in 1994. During the same period, although the size of the ships did not change, the average (productive) time needed to unload decreased from 7.1 days to 5.6 days. The new equipment not only improved efficiency but also maximized the availability of the equipment. The nonproductive time due to the port, for example, decreased from 7.6 days to only 1.8 days (Table 2.2). 8. Iron Ore Carriers: Although the number ships carrying iron ore and visiting the port doubled from 1985-1994, total ship port days per ship dropped sharply from 11.2 per ship in 1985 to 6.1 days in 1994. With the project, nonproductive time (due to the port) also dropped sharply, from 7.5 days to 2.0 days (Table 2.2). -41- ANNEX2 9. Coal Carriers: The number of coal ships visiting the port has increased more than two times during 1985-94. With the high coal traffic demand, the total ship port days per ship has dropped from 5.5 days per ship in 1985 to 5.2 day per ship in 1994. During the same period, the loading/unloading time for each ship (productive time) also dropped from 2.6 days to 1.5 days. Despite these improvements, however, the high demand of coal handling caused the ship waiting time in the port (nonproductive time due to the port) increased from 1.5 days in 1985 to 3.1 days in 1994 (Table 2.2). C. BERTH OPERATIONS 10. Operating data for general cargo, fertilizer, iron ore and coal berths at the port also differ somewhat from the SAR estimates. Detailed operating data used for the economic revaluation of each project berth are shown in Table 2.3 and highlighted as follows: -42 - ANNEX2 Major Operating Data Comparisons SAR estimate ICR estimate Percentage 1987 1994 1994 prices changes prices prices Berth numbers-without project: General cargo 10 10 -- Fertilizer 1 1 -- Iron ores I 1 -- Coal 2 2 -- Berth numbers-new project: General cargo 2 2 -- Fertilizer 1 1 -- Iron ores I I -- Coal I I Maximum annual throughput per proposed berth (million ton): General cargo 0.46 0.46 -- Fertilizer 0.97 0.97 -- Iron ores 1.58 1.58 -- Coal 4.12 4.12 -- Average ship size- new project ('000 dwt): General cargo 15.0 15.0 -- Fertilizer 20.0 20.0 -- Iron ores 15.0 15.0 -- Coal 20.0 20.0 -- Average shipment size-new project ('000 ton): General cargo 10.0 10.0 -- Fertilizer 18.0 18.0 -- Iron ores 13.5 13.5 -- Coal 18.0 18.0 -- Cargo value (Y'000/ton): General cargo 2.00 3.78 4.50 +19% Fertilizer 0.31 0.59 1.60 +171% Iron ores 0.07 0.13 0.29 +123% Coal 0.23 0.43 0.40 -7% Average daily ship cost in port for the proposed berths ($'000/day): General cargo 6.75 8.31 7.19 -14% Fertilizer 7.00 8.62 6.08 -30% Iron ores 6.50 8.00 5.51 -31% Coal 7.00 8.62 6.08 -30% Cargo handling (Yuan/ton): General cargo 4.5 8.50 12.0 +41% Fertilizer 3.7 6.99 4.0 -43% Iron ores 2.1 3.97 2.0 -50% Coal 0.9 1.70 4.0 +135% 43- ANNEX2 D. ECONOMIC COSTS AND BENEFITS Economic Costs 11. All costs needed to complete the facilities planned under the project were considered in the economic reevaluation. All inputs and outputs were evaluated in constant December 1994 economic prices (Table 2.4). Financial costs were converted to economic costs by shadow pricing each berth's input categories. Conversion factors for each input category were based on estimates determined in completed Bank studies. 12. The overall conversion factor is 1.01, of which coal berths are 1.0, while iron ore, fertilizer and general cargo berths are 1.01. The factors derived for the various cost items were applied to annual project expenditures to obtain the stream of economic costs (Table 2.5). 13. In the SAR, the effect of shadow pricing the project costs was that economic costs were 17.2 percent higher than financial costs, and total economic costs were 14.2 percent higher than the SAR estimate at constant December 1994 prices. The comparisons are summarized as follows: PROJECT ECONOMIC COST COMPARISON (million Yuan) Iron General Coal ores cargo la Total SAR: Economic: 1987 constant 204.17 167.00 465.45 836.62 1994 constant 256.63 209.91 585.06 1,051.60 ICR: Financial- Current 497.55 40.36 486.57 1,024.48 Economic-1994 constant 583.05 47.30 570.19 1,200.54 ICR/SAR (Economic, 1994 +127.2% -77.5% -2.5% 14.2% constant): la Including fertilizer berth. Economic Benefits 14. The economic analysis focused on the benefits derived from relieving port congestion. Details of the traffic forecast are shown in Table 2.1. The project will yield -44 - ANNEX2 quantifiable benefits in the form of savings in cargo handling coats, ship time (both waiting time and operating time), and cargo time (Table 2.6). 15. Savings in Cargo Handling. Savings are relatively small and are expected to accrue from the direct costs of cargo handling in the new facilities as compared with the present ones. Without the project, the only way to handle traffic in excess of berth capacity would be through "lightening," but it is estimated these costs would be three to four times greater than normal handling costs. Detailed estimates of handling cost savings are shown in Table 2.7. Lightening was assumed for cargo tonnage in excess of berth capacity at 95 percent occupancy, at a cost three times that of normal handling. Substantial savings in handling costs are expected after existing berths are renovated and new berths (proposed) are built. Savings in handling costs were converted to economic benefits by shadow pricing the main cost components of normal handling and lightening. Conversion factors of 1.05 for berth handling and 1.1 for lightening were used; these factors were estimated in a previous Bank study. 16. Savings in Ship Time. These include reductions in ship time waiting for berths and working at berths, due to improved cargo handling. Estimates of savings in ship waiting time due to the project are shown in Table 2.8. Ship costs used for the economic evaluation were at the low end of the ship cost model developed by the Bank. The annualized ship resale value, plus operating costs, were used to calculate project benefits. The annual resale value of ships was assumed to reflect the present state of the shipping. industry and gives a slightly lower return than the annualized replacement value. 17. Savings in Cargo Time. Savings in ship cargo time also apply to the interest saved on the value of the cargo. For domestic cargo, the marginal source of working capital would be loans from the National Development Bank of China at 10-12 percent interest. For foreign cargo, the higher foreign exchange working capital needed would require more foreign borrowing, and it is assumed this would be at China's marginal cost of capital (approximately 12 percent). Roughly 70 percent of all cargo passing through HP involves domestic trade. Thus, interest savings were calculated assuming an average annual interest rate of 10.0 percent. 18. Project benefits for the items discussed above are presented by year in Table 2.8. The major benefit would be in ship time savings. These would accrue first to shipowners and could be passed on to cargo owners. All the ships and cargo of coal are Chinese owned. As for general cargo, fertilizer and iron ore, the vast majority of ships visiting the port are either Chinese-owned (COSCO) or Chinese-operated; it is expected that 90 percent of project benefits would also accrue to China directly. E. OVERALL ECONOMIC REEVALUATION AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 19. Table 2.9 sets out the Reevaluated Economic Rate of Return (RERR), Net Present Value (NPV) and sensitivity calculations for the entire project. The overall RERR is 34.7 percent. Compared with the SAR and the sensitivity of RERR of the project to variations in costs and benefits are summarized as follows: - 45 - ANNEX2 Iron General Coal ores cargo /a Total Best estimate of rate of return (%): The ICR 14.5 62.1 39.4 32.7 The SAR 23.2 28.6 17.6 21.3 15% increase in costs and best estimate of benefits (%): The ICR 12.2 59.0 36.2 29.9 The SAR 20.9 25.9 15.3 18.9 15% decrease in benefits and best estimate of costs (%): The ICR 11.8 58.5 35.7 29.4 The SAR 20.5 25.5 14.9 18.5 15% increase in costs and 15% decrease in benefits (%): The ICR 9.7 55.5 32.7 26.7 The SAR 18.3 22.4 12.7 16.2 /a Including fertilizer berth. GI Table 2.1 a: Port Traffic (1985-1994) and Forecast (to 2020) C 000 ton) Aca F -1995-~~ ~~~ - 1990 - 1 1 20W_1 Is out Tow in ou TOW Is out Ttal 3. out T.l In ou TOWl b OA Ttda In Old TOWa I1 Ot T ral I oS rTOW Cow F aW I34 16 10 26 0 126 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 00 S 5" Deisgic 2t1l 3.337 3.470 5,043 2537 7.530 8,357 1.024 11.301 9.365 3.325 13.30 9,334 4.437 14,291 10.300 4,400 14,700 11,000 2,400 13,400 12.000 2,300 14,300 35.90 4.000 19.000 TtA l L! ila L5.Lt tin Lii! 225 M! L2." 4IA371 L.4 e 1 4 L M SLo Lim ItS ILl Sm L LIE 155 L US un US 115 Forte 0 93 93 790 161 951 2,100 In 2.353 3)44 130 374 4.748 94 4)42 5.000 90 5.090 3300 500 4.000 3)00 1.200 7,000 JMO 1.200 7pe Dwmotic 2726 147 2,173 2.34 519 3,373 3,32 1,636 3,610 4.070 2.538 6,633 3.649 3.445 7,094 4,000 3.500 7,300 3,.00 1.300 53.00 4.100 2.000 6.100 4,300 2.600 7.400 TOW 2.1 in ak "a to Am LIii LW 2.22 ilA &Wl Itt LMI L u o ta amn im Ln as tn Is iam IL I" am sin14 Fas Q42 4 46 no 21 291 600 3 607 913 7 922 370 69 947 900 70 970 1,000 O .000 1.500 0 1.300 2.000 50 2.0M Dostic 392 7 34 34 0 304 347 0 147 ill I 113 123 7 133 130 30 140 450 0 450 500 0 300 300 0 500 T'A I d S 1VA IL m 211 I lid LIS 2 LU LEI 2i LU tM K 1I Lt I L4l 2. us La a .5 ion U2270 1 2,271 374 50 424 sn 20 613 4.041 21 4.062 3.016 60 3Q076 1e000 60 1.96 3,500 loo 1,600 I3500 300 1.80 2.300 450 290 Dwook 46 104 ISO 90 42 140 3,022 104 1,126 1.037 337 1.374 710 241 931 750 200 950 750 300 1.050 900 450 1.350 1.000 700 1.760 Tal If 1 tn Au i Ma tn na Liu ti is Lit L! ML aL i ain nf ia a ti La in LIr aIM LIs AM Fau l 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 7 3 6 9 2 6 t0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 DoMotac 0 10 30 5 I 6 36 36 32 79 30 09 36 27 113 0 20 110 130 100 250 200 15 330 200 200 40 TOWl 5f 11 A 1 1 a ai ii L i 21 a U 1 n a si in a a a in an M Fuip 217 4 217 0 319 319 38 56 94 70 27 07 63 a 61 60 0 60 o 1.260 1.250 30 1.400 1.450 so 1300 1.554 Dsmc 0 131 131 171 5 176 663 156 021 1,112 324 3,436 1.509 302 1.313 1,600 330 1,950 200 300 300 200 IN0 300 200 3tO 300 Towa u a in a a 2i ai 211 Ll ML L1 Lai al LI LS an Li i ta LE in La LiD in Lo La Tbmf Fa-Wl 603 9 603 702 2 704 =I 5 036 013 4 017 521 4 532 480 9 480 I.000 300 1,300 3,200 400 3,600 1.340 54o 3e 0 Dosm ic 3 66 69 22 47 69 163 32 195 124 44 141 63 107 172 60 so 140 30 200 250 s0 200 230 50 200 2se Ta a l i in a in 1 L.a L Ln 2n A a a an 2i am a at io a a io in u iL La I 2 Nam Fc-r 14 12 96 30 229 319 62 320 332 1 99 300 6 162 160 0 160 160 30 400 450 s0 500 550 50 700 750 DOstc 49 13 64 216 31 247 277 04 361 104 79 103 III 56 167 300 50 130 9eo 400 1,200 900 400 1,300 1,100 400 2,300 TOW in imi i1 a an Ai i31 i 3i in w i IL iO it1 a a a Ltin 28 28 La tin tin ta F-W 913 0 913 1,543 0 1,543 l3o,0 32 1,112 433 6 443 1.090 6 1,096 1,200 0 1,200 2,200 0 2200 2,st o 2,50 2,600 Daic 40 441 481 3 624 627 4 411 465 2 163 165 13 369 302 30 400 430 50 1,350 1.400 300 1,440 1,500 130 3,300 1,60I Tow 2m M Lai L ad a.ia ta i tin in in a LIE 1 Lal La A tim ia I in m Lo ia L4a LIa a 0 0 0 ~ ~ ~~ ~~0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Daic 100 3 l00 3 2 5 0 0 0 23 3 20 12 2 14 10 0 30 400 30 450 400 30 450 450 300 550 Ta in in a a 5 t 2 I a a 5 I t t a a la in in a en-sd 01 Table 2.1 b: Port Traffic (1985-1994) and Forecast (to 2020) co. In) -Ing 95-396.- - 139----992- -92----- ---99------ -19---- 2W---- fW----- -U---- a out Tad la ou TOd lo out TaSS lo ou TOW in Ol Tad 34 Ol Tad 1 oS Tad la out Tad 1 out Tad Fatp 659 325 964 933 206 1.143 096 337 1,333 949 219 1.16 1.027 21 1.041 1.100 20 1,120 I.m 530 2.000 1,700 600 2.34o 2.000 t 0 X20 DmsiK 95 337 432 492 627 1.119 1.27 1,200 2.47 1.305 1.223 2,20 1213 1.342 2.535 1.230 1,400 2.6t0 IM00 1.400 3.200 2i200 1,600 3.t00 2.300 2.000 4.3so Tadl 21 Ml LlI LII l 2.34 3.21i 2.1 .3 . 2.1 3.6 b2. 2.23 . . 1.3! I S 2.2 6 S* 3.5 6.1 6.2! .2 Fa. 137 302 2.349 1.223 60 103 1.134 846 1.062 364 t9 1.753 1,409 1.123 2.532 IS.o 3O3 2.00 4.20 4.M0 11.00 7,600 6.2 13,30t .000 t.34 143N D22 663 n6 314 205 319 302 611 1.413 1is 534 1349 924 036 1,760 1.250 n 2.100 1.430 1,20 2.650 1,950 1.654 3,600 1,900 1.660 ISO Tad 2.2* LIt! 35i LI R 2. LI iI US Lin 2 31 3 L1 L4 tM LaM 1 2AM La 1am Jl1 2AM 125 1.1 .1 I2 Tad F W 6019 903 7722 53. 1.730 7.723 7.s72 11t7 9.3s 11,935 1,398 13U333 12.765 1,345 14,310 12.140 1,7C0 13,340 17,340 7,3O 25,300 22.406 10.660 33,000 24.00 11.500 36340 omudic 3,713 3.296 9,011 9,525 4.640 14.165 16,733 7.344 24.077 I1,47 9,132 27,479 1269 11.171 29,440 19,600 11,26 30,360 20,700 9,000 29.700 23,s30 10,500 34,000 27.300 13,400 41.20 Tad i1* _.1 1.1 111 LI! 22.5 2 1 LII 315 25 161 .12 3211 13 13.2 3L2. 2 13.1 1.1 MS 162 51 51 221 111 315 261 2315 ESLD Dry 0.i5 4.633 1,439 4,122 U.470 3.199 11.669 1141 3,437 15,0MM 12,173 4,032 16,205 13,162 4.733 17.095 13.800 4,690 13.490 17.950 4,450 22.400 20.100 4,W30 24,950 24.23 6750 311.001 Ed. LIqSd ll. 2.726 240 2946 3,644 630 4,324 6162 1,309 7.971 7,914 2X713 10.632 V397 3,539 11.936 9.0G0 3.390 12,590 7.100 2.00 9,100 9.9M0 3,200 13,100 10.600 3.300 14.440 ISeL GCd CAW Fwig 4140 706 5,54 X299 940 3,239 2.612 1.265 3.,77 5.721 1.145 ,4t6 4.953 1.220 6.173 3.0 13800 3,240 S,700 5,700 14,400 10300 7.00 17,00 11.3JO 3.050 19W50O Dumic 405 1,762 2.167 3.303 1.531 2.656 3,970 2.600 6.570 4.474 2.635 7,109 4,520 3,224 7.744 5.060 3.300 8.360 4.450 4,650 9,100 5,600 ,5550 11.1 0 5,950 6,30 132250 Tead .4 LII .11 31 212 6.1 lL1 3.1 1144 16.11 3.IS 1121 9.47S611 3.1 6.15 £13 145 16.32 23.2L 11.15 D13.! 3 2 142 3 3 L. C tcl /_2 Fmp - 1,967 707 2.674 1.223 1,207 2.430 1,136 1.291 2,427 364 1,131 1.995 1.409 1,150 2,559 1,500 1,320 2.20 6,200 6,500 12X700 7,600 S,200 15.00 3.00 t,60 16,00 Dmisc 356 1,374 1.930 960 1,461 2.441 2,749 2.448 53197 3.234 2.244 5,478 3.659 2,049 6566 4,160 3,000 7,160 3,50) 4,050 7,550 4.450 4.750 920 4.700 5,260 9, Caam. Pan="0~ Fa %) 12% 11% 32% 26% 29% 23% 42% 46% 44% 32% 57% 55% 44% 72% 57% 45% 70% 57% 47% 72% 60% 30% 75% 63% 55% 80% 6t% Danx 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 09 1% 0% 0% 0% G% 99 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 3% 3% 5% 7% 7% FL l.1dd catm bW3 H4b 717 954 1,671 3.019 4.,02 7.321 4.023 6,300 10,411 4,729 7,244 1173 Is 2n9 00 9 323 349 n 72 479 1,4069 446 64 I,00 o2 8 1,4n2 670 924 On 2,934,640 7,iS 3,80 6,334 9,996 4,4" 6, II20 llic 12 0 12 9 Q Q 2 11 1L5 0 2 2 0 1 1 = = = = = = = =- TaLd nO.M kW&3 H4 N0 1.145 2.003 3,623 5,762 9,33 4S28 7666 12.494 5,675 3693 14330 I_ an 2km22 22 4of LI2 at! u1 Lw &m u1 L21 62 1.2 1.2! 12.1 1W.M 62 13 IL ESL I^J lk bk 36 hwft4. I-gH 3,3016 2,3 7,4 t4 5,00 3 2,3 3,222 6,,153 3,275 9,273 9,749 2334 32,3O3 8,05 5,612 32,447 3,265 3,75 12,3 13,23 3,67 33,90 I2,340 6,3 139,01 13,359 7,47 20,t La £016 23c0 74265 2142 _21 6.101 1221 5 41 9 97249 1.114 IU.33 IL 12.467 1221 1.726 1 IL9 942 Lao4! 5S aL &66 1M339 132021 2.M11 EL Im I. Cup ackxdbd in dry but m: Cml (aWI. km ak (all), Canal (fbmip.) N6siic us (aI). Chatu Fufi. Qbrpi4 3K (dafliC-aI (Any.-.), 2. Caaamwu4 cup mchdmi C (b.p t C-al, nmicl Fcnlr (fhrdp.a uf-*ic-sI) Salt ( (FM ps t-icull (w (alD.) 3. AU tem rued ae: GHB, I_1 adX 04 Table 2.2: Ship Time Analysis (Actual Ships Days Per Ship) Coal Ship Iron Ores Ship Generate Cargo Ship Fertilizer Ship Total Huangpu District 1985 1990 1994 1985 1990 1994 1985 1990 1994 1985 1990 194 1985 1990 1994 1. Producdtve time d berth 2.6 1.4 1.5 2.8 2.6 2.5 3.9 2.2 2.1 7.1 2.2 5.6 3.3 1.6 1.3 1 2. Nonproductive time: _ a. Due to port 1.5 1.2 3.1 7.5 0.4 2.0 5.8 0.4 10 7.6 0.6 1.8 4.4 0.7 0.8 00 b. Duetoship 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 01 00 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 c. Duetocargoowner 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 04 02 3.7 0.1 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.3 1 d. Others 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.8 09 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 Subtotal 2.7 1.3 3.4 8.1 1.2 3.1 7.7 1.3 2.0 12.3 1.0 4.4 5.9 1.3 1.5 3. Weather stoppage 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.4 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 Total Average Port Days PerShip 5.5 3.1 5.2 11.1 4.2 6.1 12.4 4.1 4.6 20.8 3.8 11.4 9.9 3.3 3.1 _ _ == - TotalNumberofShips 177 282 363 28 38 56 243 419 450 66 168 38 1,625 2,226 3,895 Sources: GHB> 03 Table 2.3:Operational Data Used for Economic Evaluation C.eMys Carge Ftlr Ire Ore Cli Om Ne-w Omd New Od New Old NOW berths berths berth bert berth be ~ bwo berth Berths (numbr 10 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 Cream per bwt (number) 3 3 2 1 3 1 1.5 2 Averag emm pvectivity per beor (tas) 30 30 40 300 60 550 300 550 Averamewe " beareperday (h-) 18 1 18 18 18 18 18 1S Threspat -p-ky per berth (toaddey) 1,620 1,620 1,440 5,400 3,240 9,900 8,100 19,800 BUeel opetUe days per yer (days) 300 300 300 300 320 320 320 320 MaxImum unsmal capacity pe berth (00 toe) 462 462 389 912 933 1.584 1,685 4,118 Ship arrksi (eclhdhied /elas"dIe) ULwhaduled Uhdc dlod Unsceduled Uncwhadled Averag ship Am (DWT) 15,000 15,010 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 20,000 20,000 Avsrag ehl_pM eke (tea) 10.000 10,000 18,000 18,000 13,500 13,500 15,000 18.000 Cargo v.ia (Yealtoe) 4,500 4.500 1,600 1.600 290 290 400 400 Averg daly ship cotd In p- (VYsary) 62,553 62,553 52,S96 52,S96 47,931 47,937 52,896 52,896 U _eiedI_ag diag eet(YnsnJoe)L.i 12.00 12.00 4.00 4.00 4.20 4.20 4.00 4.00 Notes: (i) thercal daily berth capciy - a per beth x avege hpructvty per x aeN -orkeig h- pe dys. (i) ihrsts maul berth cepqty - tluratcs daily berth capy x beth opartmg d,,p pery (iii) n nfuiu unI cpay per beth - theoretl m ual berth capity x nxamin bth uiilnaxtx /_I. F ie m the table amthe cots for normal berth handlg if wfcp trffic exec 95% berth o=pency rat, adi l mp will be handled by SItumn at roWiy three tmes the coss fo nmal berth hmid1e /2. For Ihtermg operatam thrVut cap"cit takena 50% of no°nPs bath throughput capacity Soereon CGUD sd Bank 1s t. 02 -~~~~~~~~~~50 - ANNEX 2 Table 2.4: ECONOMIC PROJECT COST (Y million, December 1994 prices) 1987 19 19 19. 1"9 19I2 193 194 TOW A F_wa,oa: I.Coel BuB (1) 2.40 3.37 18.68 24.50 16.00 66.66 55.10 190.30 377.01 2. IwOreBul(I) 0.20 0.27 1.51 1.99 1.29 5.40 4.47 15.43 30.56 3. GuaICago Bul*m(2) 1.27 1.77 9.85 12.92 8.44 35.17 29.07 100.40 198.S9 4.Fur1mBerh() 1.03 1.44 8.01 10.51 6.87 28.59 23.62 81.61 161.68 5.Ohes/ 1 27.96 17.74 22.39 35.14 4235 37.38 32.10 37.72 252.73 6.T.A. .1ing &8udis 0.06 0.02 009 0.27 0.02 2.59 0.47 0.04 3.56 Tobi 32.92 24.61 60. 15J3 74.97 175.79 144.U3 425-5 1024.S B. Econonac a. By Comp4n: 1.CoalBerth(1) 4.56 4.26 23.21 30.12 19.91 77.39 59.66 191.06 410.17 2.IeuiOn Buih(1) . 0.38 0.34 L.8 2.46 1.60 6.27 4.84 15.51 33.28 3.GeuICuCowUBe(2) j 2.42 2.37 12.77 16.97 11.40 43.74 32.40 101.10 223.17 4. FaerButd(1) N 1.96 1.87 10.11 13.24 8.82 34.07 25.85 82.02 177.94 5. Oth 53.21 30.01 34.73 51.35 58.55 4866 36.79 37.99 351.34 6.TA. lTtab*% sa ie 0.11 0.03 0.14 0.39 0.03 3.37 0.53 0.04 4.64 Total 62.64 38.88 2.39 114.53 100.31 213.5 160.07 427.72 1200.54 b. By Bltz 1.Coal Blh(1) 30.47 18.85 40.17 55.25 48.36 102.67 7780 209.48 583S 2.I kmonBe t(I) 2.48 1.52 3.26 4.50 3.91 8.32 6.31 17.00 47J3 3. OwmlCu3p BoU (2) 16.51 10.31 22.00 30.64 26.88 57.49 42.26 111.15 317.24 4P, tB=lh(l) 13.19 8.20 17.47 24.14 21.17 45.03 33.71 90.04 252.95 TOtal 62.65 3S S2.90 1145 I002 213.51 16.0N 427.67 1200.4 /-I: cblbd5 cma md ships fr babor opeait navgfaon aide, chane dredgi an roads. bndg wae. mid power ippIus oae die poit /_2: Al dew figu am rounded . . . . . . -o . . . . . . 8S8SoSSS8~ -o88S It k 8 65,: h - gaw_ax_ -' 9~ ~ ~ x 3'O:" ,a s 9w v . 1 --°°°°° °°°°°°-0 -°°0 - IT ooooo ooooo0 ............... ~. oA i.I o~ooe _e__=_ - _ ii 1; -s ^-^f -- -Ie IP .°-ooe e ._ _ I "=ioo ~ 0'XW0 - ~~sb I 1 12 ?~~~~~ ~ ~ 15 -N G3 - 52 - ANN]a 2 Table 2.6 a: Cargo Handling Without And With Proposed Berths (General Cargo ad Fertiizr Berhts) II 19"1 392 1 l99 1ff 240 20s 230 2035 2 A. TRAFFIC DOLAND CO TONE) /I Oaa Cep 3,223 7.035 9.378 1.2 12,021 15906 17.453 19.o00 19310 20820 Fwd aIi (Dhyt*) 1.543 1872 10,50 435 1,20M 2.200 2.350 2,500 2.550 240 Toaw £24 121 ILAf ilUl mm ILlS amS 21. fLu L B. WITHUT PUOJCT on" am Cup B /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 2 /-2 /2 /2 1. 1-0o ssti) 10 0 1- 0 10 1-0 1- 0 10 10 3 1 2. Taft (0001) 6.214 0.002 9.604 12.231 12142 16.62 18,186 19,745 20,627 2130 3. AmmW t bertht - roqd 3j134 4340 S52 7.500 7.495 3,64 11,226 12.1K 1733 13.27 4. AAA si berth day avoilab 3,000 3.000 3.000 3000 3.000 3.000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3.000 5. a" oca by mu )1) (95) (95) (95) (91S) (95) (9) 6. Wsat. q.ua facs 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.33 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.33 1.13 1.11 7. Anud W hp pwt dy: t AsaI dp butht 2.250 2,250 2,250 2,250 2.250 2.250 2S50 2250 2.250 2.250 b. Shipkigyu 3.390 3.390 3.390 3.500 3.390 3.390 3.390 3.390 3390 3.300 MSip 14h0u.dys lyn 4,1e0 6.156 9.400 9.290 14n2 16.751 12,676 19.746 20AS4 Total mi4 p- d21 1042 1m2 LIAO 1±210 iQt 22M22 ?A1 i 22 adsk Fwu liliwu E /_2 12 L2 L2 L2 L2 /2 L2 /_2 L2 1. suts (ous) I I I I 1 1 I I I 3 2. Tr (I000 loo) 552 711 a54 1.067 1,079 1,473 1.617 1,755 1.33 1.912 3.Anuej i 4burtnhys q.d 323 494 593 755 749 1,026 L.123 1,219 3.273 1.328 4. Amol dip but ays available 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 S. Bui ocoqatoy rate 04) (95) (95) (95) (95) (93) (95) (95) (95) (95) (95) 6. Wkakigmtw qmkg&hamo 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.43 7. Amol tal ti porut d: t Aduol ip beth kyo 2 25 225 22 225 22s 285 2S5 225 b. Shipi pg &L 339 339 339 339 339 339 339 339 339 339 c. Shipijtuigdys 14 412 616 940 92 1,482 1.676 IN22 1.976 2,006 Toal *4 p put L2 .2 1a 21 .2 242m 2.5 LIlt Ttal dp put hp a. Aeal tip but dLys 3.135 3,.3S 3.135 3.13$ 3,135 3.135 3.135 3.135 3.135 3,133 b. Sip waft dys 3J729 3,729 3.729 3,729 3.729 3.729 3.729 3,729 3,729 3.729 c. Shipshlpur dys 2.162 4,59 6.772 10.340 10.213 16.310 18,422 20.344 23,742 22-40 Tdal ship pu dqoM 11.140 L2.ux IlSm 12." i 2mm =225 21 23.5 casts - 53 - 03 ANNEX2 (Gerl Cag an Fwuzlr) 19" 3"91 12 19 391 " 2ff 2810 2815 22 C WITH PRozCT E cawi Cap nut. /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 1. Bwa Ome) /3 10 10 to 10 14 14 14 14 14 14 2.Tne fIcOo N) 61234 2,002 9,69 9.012 ,23 12,03 13,216 14,249 14,949 15.626 3. AmSt* but daeys ed 1.436 4.940 .926 S053 5,446 7,459 2,3s t87 9,252 944 4. ANsE dmp baS dys swiMS. 3.000 3,000 3.000 3,000 4.200 4,200 4,200 4,200 4,200 4.200 5. Sot eca4mys fat4 (95) (95) (95) (9) (95) (95) (95) (95) (95) (95) 6, W.*ine mm g hdse 1.13 3.33 1.3 0.92 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.49 0.69 7. Am_l WA d* pt &y: t AC_1 * buS y. 2.50 2X250 2X0 2,350 2.990 X,990 3.990 3.990 3.990 3.990 b. S34 wufk day. 3.390 390 3.39 2,76 2.9 2.396 2.39 2,1m 2,8 9 2,18961 c*.4* 1Ubby. 3.972 4.130 6.156 5.426 l2, 6.938 2336 9.734 1O3,24 11,316 TOI dp p-s 2y. Lo 12.32 IfL sL Li2 15124 ll 12 am - Unsl Cup Bdfu /2 /2 1_2 /_2 /_2 /_2 /_2 I. Bads uas) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2. Trefic M 0flu) 1.790 122 31.75 Irs 2.036 2.327 2,233 3. A al 4 but dys reiffed 1,103 773 I1os9 1.157 1.257 1,313 "369 4. A_I *A but day. Wihbb 600 600 600 600 60 600 600 5. Bob .inWuu M. ( (93) (95) (93) (95) (95) (95) (93) 6. W m fu e qauq facts 0.92 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 7. AMI WA *4pt byE L Aa3' *d but ky. 570 570 570 570 570 570 570 b. S* r days 552 414 414 414 414 414 414 C. U4 b# ftu dy 1.070 406 972 13174 1,374 1.436 1.96 Tel * pat- 2y. LM LE £2 2118 LI 2L42 2.92 Fulir B. *b / 4 1 2 /_2 /2 /2 /2 /2 2 /2 /2 / 2 3. Bets (_mtb) I 1 I I I I I 1 I 1 2. TrefllcCmoom) S52 711 834 2.516 3,146 4.306 4,712 5.35 5,354 5572 3. Amau ,4 but day. reqke 363 494 393 1353 s32 796 273 947 990 1,032 4. A_I *4 buSi day. ovab 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 S. auteo_uey."(%) (95) (91) (95) (93) (9) (9s) (9s) (95) (95) (s) 6.WakhgtiaqauhgbcWe 1.13 1.13 1.13 9.92 0. 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 7. AmS In p *,pt ay.: L ACtw dp b tbdys 225 225 235 2 255 235 225 225 235 225 b. Sfipnkkb . 339 339 339 276 207 207 207 207 207 207 C. s ip 1 i byx 196 413 616 2.536 596 1,026 1.176 1,324 1,410 1,494 Tel *4 ps dy. CO £92 L240 £5 IS L a JA LO LUI L21L L21 TeOl xh ps day L Anal *p bu bday 3,133 3.135 3,13S 3.705 4,845 4.845 4,A45 4.845 4,84S 4,4S b.U4uewkk,gby 3,729 3,729 3,729 3,5Xs 3.519 3,519 3,519 339 3.519 3,S39 c. 3WOpdism aem 2.xla 4s9n6 6,771 9.031 3,914 2942 10,66 12432 13.420 34,4 TOl _* Put by LM 11 . 2 a I D 1IM0 12. u s 2a17 a1mW a N:5s (0 mat *4 but dys apared - _d3ct.qdtc Al equity pe bur. 0 oW d*p but yp _ilt - .rw SbuS o butb qw by. per yeP . O90 ba _ .camoyn - mea *p but by mqufrd / s1 al *4 but by. emiLt 0) ee*Su - bae - tr Psi 2w D elmna.4 UNCTAD 3 972 uS Bt ob o. UNCTAD. 197. (v) m_i *4 bye -unl *4but rdx e p a. / 1: x*dA nifra iad fmip ad nek (9OW. /2: TI lic usd d t Fo r daqieltySb. ub. P t.pipe 55 a eawe hctiek tt tubet maui dot say. sill be hut 04. nd a to I - Ga arwe to putW& we*4 take In . e c r 39S% but ewawyw e. 3: W de proje Mac cml bn ad - fre era but - cussdW to eni cup oaqls 1 995. / 730 T w buh ened to ons i n 1995,5 adai3 bat will be cusaed so ane cup lhm ie in CIN i_ Sek x it. G3 - 54 - A Table 2.6 b: Cargo Handling Without And With Proposed Berths (Iron Or erthan) I99 393 Iff9 I33 95 t8 2loS 2010 2t15 2tt A. 7RAFFICDEMA D CO"km)JLi 395 463 754 1.033 1,I10 1.430 1.725 2,000 2.275 2,550 IL WITHOUT PnwJCT so* -2 /2 /2 /_2 /2 I2 /_ l.BUSUt) I I 1 I I I I 3 I3 2. Tdui (O fluw) 593 465 754 1,033 1.110 1,430 1.723 2,000 2,275 2,550 3. An" d butlyureaks 134 144 233 319 343 443 532 617 702 78`7 4. AnS *ip b.t&ys . iW3k 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 S. Bwd lpO SEty le 3 so 45 73 (95) (95) (95) (95) (9f) (95) (95) 4 Wa4aOmin qiashda 0.37 0.80 1.24 9-20 9.20 9.20 9.20 9.20 9.20 9.20 7 . A d , li - pm day tAud d* buts,s 14 144 233 304 304 304 304 304 304 304 . um ipq&w J03 115 2t9 2S44 2.944 2,44 2,S44 2944 2,944 2,S44 c. 3 1 _ "iys 0 0 0 30 70 2YS 456 626 796 944 'rad shi Putm a an.a di"Mism L sAm C. W1ff7 MR T 1. E*lh _ub) 2. ridlc 000 cm u) 595 465 754 1,033 3. Aaud d4 but& ruihnd 134 144 233 319 4.A M sh budAyt& sn bk 320 320 320 320 3 Be*nawcyiWeO9 58 45 73 (95) *.Wmfi_wkqabuh3hM 0.57 0.00 3.24 9.20 7. Anud IWAI ' pm t5u: L Aadipbadet&y I 344 233 304 b.- SWa k% di" 105 135 2S9 2,944 c. Sp I joqdays 0 0 0 30 Td .p -p- ders am am m aR l.SBoom INw I I I I 2. 0luf5 ('000kmw) 1.110 1,450 1,723 2.000 2,275 2,550 3. A_Mi iSb M der- n 112 146 174 202 230 23 4. Amid * bwdmtays aabi 320 320 320 320 320 320 S. Sw* oqisicy 'v.06) 35 46 54 63 72 01 6. WOk% MqMuk tiss 0.17 0.32 047 0.73 1.13 2.06 7. Amid i dbip put hy: L Ae_us! buht day 112 146 174 202 230 25S b. SdUuk5day 139 47 62 147 271 5331 C. Shi lIWosbU dAys' 0 0 0 0 0 0 To aft pO O O o o lOss. (1) mis bpet dew days udhp Mduf -vdW dely cqeky per bat. (6) md i,,s bu hpu m lile -mue _tou .bat xush b hp pa 3y. 0- bat _ .w cy ma - mh! di but as. r.yikd/ uI p bt dmys uulsale. CM lmkts Os i, un a.PuDndqat,UsCTrAD 3973 4aBt d p 1rNCTAD, I3S7. MX ma *~ md d5's - madi but nkd xw klc qiai hmsn. LI. hedg - aS duIwdc ox4). _2 lh. lle sd4 ed Ipndica oqcpy bud. FPal pu a s a e w sia x bea m_md do y' will b6.04. c.a. fl4u U0iu&, to mave IS suC dnugh tic pat wie Wu" _ m Oa seAt es lqaolta 95% but ecoqey rae. I3: Wx OO piad. f1 .utsg m wu bath cawated Is gm" cp bat heat H30 ad Boek sM. 3 - 55 - Table 2.6 c: Cargo Handling Without And With Proposed Berths (Coal Berths) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 A.TRAFFTCDEMAND('000 tos)/LI 5.169 5.767 8.357 9.565 10.300 11.500 12,000 12,500 14,000 15.500 . WITHOUT PROJECT Exitng Bwrths /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 1. Berths (nutnber) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2. Traffic ('OOO tone) 5,169 5,767 8,357 9,565 10,300 11,500 12,000 12,500 14,000 15,500 3.Annual hipberthdwy required 638 712 1,032 1,181 1,272 1.420 1,481 1,543 1,728 1.914 4. Annual ship berth days avilable 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 5. Berth occupancy rate (%) (95) (95) (95) (95) (95) (95) (95) (95) (95) (95) 6 Waiting time queuing fotor 4 34 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 7 Annual total ship port days. a Actual ship berth days 608 608 608 608 60S 608 608 608 606 60S b Ship waiting days 2,778 2,778 2,778 2,778 2,778 2,778 2,778 2.778 2.778 2,778 c Ship lighteringdays 60 208 848 1,146 1,328 1,624 1,746 1,870 2,240 2,612 Total aip port days 3.446 3.54 4j.34 > S5h iM iu E Lhi L C. WITI PROJECT Exiatng Berths /_2 / 2 / 2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /_2 1 Berths (nunber) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2. Trffic ('000 tons) 5,169 5,767 8,357 9,565 4,635 5,175 5.400 5,625 6,300 6,975 3 Annual ship beth day required 638 712 1,032 1.181 572 639 667 694 778 861 4. Annual ship berth days available 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 640 5 Berth occupancy rate (%) (95) (95) (95) (95) 89 (95) (95) (95) (95) (95) 6 Wituig time queuigfactor. 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 1.11 2.66 2.66 2.66 2.66 2.66 7 Annual total hp port days. a Actual hip berth days 608 608 608 608 572 608 608 606 606 6K b. Ship witing days 2,778 2,778 2,778 2,778 635 1,702 1,702 1.702 1,702 1.702 c.Shiplighteringdays 60 206 848 1,146 0 62 118 172 340 506 Tatal ip port days 3.4U 35 Al" u 1.207 3272 2. 2.482 2.0 roposeed Berth /-2 /2 /2 /12 /2 1. Brths (numnber) I 1 I I I 1 2. Traffic ('000 tonrs) 5,665 6,325 6,600 6,875 7,700 8,525 3. Annual ship beth days requfvd 286 319 333 347 389 431 4. Annual ship berth days avaiable 320 320 320 320 320 320 5. Berth occupncy rate (%) 89 (95) (95) (95) (95) (95) 6. Waiting time queuing finct 1.11 2.66 2.66 2.66 2.66 2.66 7. Annual totl ship port days . Actual ship berth days 286 304 304 304 304 304 b. Ship waiting days 317 851 851 851 851 651 c. Ship lightring days 0 30 58 86 170 254 Total saip port days go LIM Ul L2 LM L1 Notes: (i) nnual ship berth days required f bafflheical daily capacity per berth (u) nnual ship berth days availabl - nunber of berths x burh opwating days per yewr. (iu) berth occupwncy ra - annual hip berth day required / annual ship berth ds wavilable. (iv) waitag tim queuing ctreua fromnPot Developsrt. VNCTAD 1978, nd Beth throughput, UNCTAD. 1978. (v) nnual dsip waiting dye - nnul ship berth required x waiting tima queueing fe-. /-I. Includes fore4n, domestic in orly. / 2. Trffic would exceed the actidal city of thse berth. For the ppoae of the eomnic evalumbon it bi bom mnumed that wary will be fosi4 e.g, through lghtwng. to move the baffic though the port with waiting tam not exeeding those corresponding to 95% beth occupancy rate. Soarcas: GIB and Bask saff. 03 Table 2.7: Total Loading/unloading Cost Savings (Mlilon Yuan, December 1994 pries) nS 2000 20052 2010 2015 lug ins 1ns am 2005 2o10 2ot5 202e Ie Orn Bereth Gaual Cargo asd Farhar larks A. Trafl domamd ('OM tam) 1,110 1,450 1,725 2,00 2,275 2550 13,313 13,221 13,106 19,S30 21,500 22,460 23,420 B. lst aowity at 95% esupoacy rat (C toss) Wihout prect 965 965 965 965 965 935 5,009 5,009 5,009 5,009 5,009 5,009 5,009 With proot I50 3,010 3,010 3,010 3,010 3,010 5,860 7,706 7,706 7,708 7,706 7,706 7,706 C Trflk hoadlg (000 tews) Wthot project BatIh 905 965 965 985 965 965 5,009 5,009 5,009 5,009 5,009 5,009 5,009 LWp" 125 465 740 1,015 1,290 1,565 8.309 3,212 13,097 14,794 16,491 17,451 18,411 Total Llf9 L450 1223 2.0 2.275 23 13.318 13Z1I 18.106 1.B03 2.m 22.6 23420 With projet Burh 1,110 1,450 1,725 2,030 2,275 2,550 5,860 7,706 7,706 7,708 7,706 7,706 7,708 LWtip 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,458 5,513 10,390 12,095 13,792 14,752 15,712 Total LlO L439 1725 Q 2M 27 2 5 I 13311 UA 13121 19.103 214 22ff0 23420 D. I.edtag'1a.dlag eob (Yo as) Withow tojaS Barth 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 4.34 21.04 21.04 21.04 21.04 21.04 21.04 21.04 L*MW" 1.16 4.30 6.4 9.38 11.92 14.46 73.12 7227 115.25 130.19 145.12 153.57 162.02 Totdl 3 33 11. 18 1.22 18. 180 ll 2.31 i162 151L23 166.16 174.61 LS306 Withpropct Buth 4.90 6.39 7.61 .32 10.03 11.25 3.21 4.22 4.22 4.22 4.22 4.22 4.22 L;Tpib 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.56 6.33 11.93 13.88 15.33 16.93 13.03 Toal 4A9m 939 7.L 582 1003 1177 10.55 16.15. 2005 2151 2=2 L Not __hudalaooadg adu (Y-a SELL) IS I 3.57 &l in 2. AM UN IUn aau L4fis I3Aa 1 m Ln coal Bod TOWl A. TrSi dama (WI tam) 10,300 11,500 12,000 12,40 14,000 15,6 13,3U 24431 31,l66 33,523 34,00 38,735 41,470 IL lest capedl at 95% amapsaq rab (0 bus) Without prqct 3,557 3,557 3,557 3,557 3,557 3,557 5,009 9,551 9,551 9,551 9,551 9,551 9,551 With projact 7,469 11,331 11,381 11,381 11,381 11,381 5,360 16,682 22,099 22099 22,099 22,099 22,099 C. Trulk lbaSt (_0 has) Witho pjoec Bth 3,557 3,557 3,557 3,557 3.557 3,557 5,009 9,551 9.551 9,551 9,551 9,551 9,551 Li*A-M 6,743 7,943 8,443 3,943 10,443 11,943 6,309 15,060 21,505 23,977 26,449 29,134 31,919 Total 1300 it. 12m 140 ISM 13,318 24-631 31. 33.52M 3 38.735 41.470 Withprojed Burth 7,469 11,381 11,381 11,381 11,381 11,381 5,360 16,287 20,539 20,314 21,069 21,364 21,639 L;pvB 2,331 119 619 1,119 2,619 4,119 7,458 3,344 10,517 12,714 14,911 17,371 19,331 TOal 1030 IIS00 1 12 .500 1.0 55 1 m 13.31 24.631 31.6 33528 36.00 38735 41.429 D. L _odla'aalog m (Yasa =il1eu) Wthn tprod Blth 14.94 14.94 14.94 14.94 14.94 14.94 21.04 40.32 40.32 40.32 40.32 40.32 40.32 Lijteri0 59.34 69.90 74.30 78.70 91.90 105.10 73.12 132.77 189.45 211.33 233.20 257.39 281.58 Todal ZIA 84.4 3,24 93.64 106.U4 12004 241 123.09 22977 251.65 2232 297.71 32190 With prouct Budh 31.37 47.30 47.80 47.30 47.30 47.30 3.21 40.49 58.41 59.63 60.34 62.05 63.27 LwtuiB 24.91 1.04 5.44 9.34 23.04 36.24 3.56 31.24 12.97 19.32 25.67 39.97 54.27 Total MMf 48384 3.24 70,U U 4 34. 2L77 7173 7893 MM.1 3 102.02 117.54 E Nat' a u aw (Y. mie) 130 3400 34.06 3.00 3.00 3 2.39 tOL36 LW3 172.7n 17.71 1954 2434 Now 1. Tbe u nufas for b edn am (a) At bes Lit aud (b) Laalag LtZ 2. LS_r lr:g c - 6km t be Oe ds kaudNg 1ma best GaMes OD sooadmI 03 - 57 - ANNEX2 Table 2.8: Economic Benefits Summary (Million Y, December 1994 prices) 1993 Im 2000 200S 2010 201S 2020 General Cargo and Fertlizer Beril Po- Lodingailo.ding avmp 82.39 82.76 120.14 133.13 146.11 153.46 160.81 S9IPS po days avin 69.79 296.02 361.38 384.35 407.07 420.00 432.SS Ca pot days avn 20.62 50.92 60.30 63.70 66.95 68.68 70.59 Lam: Banofitsasomuingotorsiun (10%) 17.28 42.97 54.1S 58.12 62.01 64.21 66.43 Total ISS.S HER 487.64 SUM I 57.9 597. Iron Ores Berth Por-: Lodiwuroding sav s 0.60 2.25 3.57 4.90 6.23 7.55 Ship port dys s 153.16 160.25 165.29 168.98 169.S4 164.18 C-D pot day svin 6.67 7.03 7.24 7.46 7.50 7.29 LA=: BmeafiLs waokV to fixW (10%) 16.04 16.95 17.61 1.13 18.36 17.90 TOtWl 1443 125lS 15S49 163.21 16fI21 161.12 Coal Berl Pord Lo.di/Amloadz* savs 13.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 Shp pot d sa-viN 139.21 69.65 71.47 73.49 79.14 84.99 Ca por dayssavi 7.54 4.56 4.68 4.80 5.14 5.49 Total 16475 Q11021 112.1 114.29 1202S 12648 Total P-aLosdn/wilodiqsavings 82.39 101.36 158.39 172.70 187.01 195.69 204.36 Shis port days svng 69.79 5S8.39 591.23 621.11 649.54 668.96 682.05 Cao port dayssvu 20.62 65.13 71.89 75.62 79.21 31.32 83.37 Lau: BmneSlt accrung to foreuiienm (10%) 17.28 59.01 71.13 75.73 30.14 82.57 S4.33 Total 155.52 695.37 75043 793.70 1135.2 3.42 315.45 Notb: 1. Opportunlty cod of capital for csrgo Is aaaand to bhe 10.00% . Soures: GHB and Boak staff. G3 Table 2.9 a: Economic Rate of Return (ERR) and Sensitivity Analysis (The Total Project) (Million Yuan, December 1994 Prices) Bae Case Cae I Cwe 2 Caw 3 Coas Total Net Net Net Net Capital Maint- Bent- Cash Costs Beneits Cash Coab Benefits Cash Costs Benefib Cash Year Invest enee Total fits Flow (+15S,) Flow (-15%) Flow (+15%) (-15%) Flow 1917 62.65 62.65 (62.7) 72.05 (72.05) 62.65 (62-65) 72.05 (72.1) 1919 38.88 38.88 (38.9) 44.71 (44.71) 38.88 (38.88 44.71 (44.7) 119 82.90 82 90 (82 9) 95.34 (9534) 82.90 (82.90) 95.34 (95.3) 1I9 114.53 114 53 (1145) 131.11 (131.71) 114.53 (11453) 131.11 (131.7) n98 100.32 100.32 (100.3) 115.37 (11537) 100.32 (100.32) 115.37 (115.4) 192 213.51 213.51 (213.5) 245.54 (245.54) 213.51 (213.51) 245.54 (245.5) 1"3 160.00 17.42 177.50 155.52 (21.98) 204.13 155.52 (48.61) 177.50 112.19 -45.31 204.13 132.19 (71.9) 1n4 427.67 17.42 445.09 353.50 (91.59) 51 1.8 333.50 (158.35) 443.09 300.4t (144.61) 511.85 300.48 (211.4) 1n5 37.12 37.12 695.87 658.75 42.69 695.87 653.18 37.12 591.49 554.37 42.69 591.49 548.8 199 37.12 37.12 703.10 665.98 42.69 703.10 660.41 37.12 597.63 560.51 42.69 597.63 554.94 1m7 37.12 37.12 712.20 675.00 42.69 712.20 669.51 37.12 605.37 568.25 42.69 605.37 562.68 19m 37.12 37.12 723.14 686.02 42.69 723.14 680.43 37.12 614.67 577.55 42.69 614.67 571.98 1 199 37.12 37.12 735.89 698.77 42.69 735.89 693.20 37.12 625.50 508.38 42.69 625.50 532.81 206 37.12 37.12 750.43 713.31 42.69 750.43 707.74 37.12 637.87 600.75 42.69 637.87 595.18 U0 2601 37.12 37.12 758.87 721.75 42.69 758.87 716.18 37.12 645.04 607.92 42.69 645.04 602.35 2002 37.12 37.12 767.41 73.29 42.69 767.41 724.72 37.12 652.30 615.18 42.69 652.30 609.61 1 2003 45.83 4583 776.06 730.23 52.70 776.06 723.36 45.83 659.65 613.82 52.70 659.65 606.95 2404 45.83 45.83 784.83 739.00 52.70 784.83 732.13 45.83 667.10 621.27 52.70 667.10 614.40 205 LI 46.97 46.97 793.70 746.73 54.02 793.70 739.66 46.97 674.65 627.68 54.02 674.65 620.63 260116 1 46.97 46.97 801.89 754.92 54.02 801.89 747.87 46.97 661.61 634.64 54.02 661.61 627.59 2400 37.12 37.12 810.17 773.05 42.69 810.17 767.48 37.12 688.65 651.53 42.69 688.65 645.96 200 37.12 37.12 818.36 781.44 42.69 818.56 775.87 37.12 695.77 658.65 42.69 695.77 653.08 200 37.12 37.12 827.04 789.92 42.69 827.04 78435 37.12 702.98 665.86 42.69 702.98 660.29 2610 37.12 37.12 835.62 798.50 42.69 835.62 792.93 37.12 710.26 673.16 42.69 710.26 667.59 Zell 37.12 37.12 841.10 803.98 42.69 841.10 7984A 37.12 714.93 677.81 42.69 714.93 672.24 2012 37.12 37.2 8.62 809.50 42.69 846.62 803.93 37.12 719.62 682.50 42.69 719.62 676.93 2613 37.12 37.12 852.18 815.06 4269 852.18 809.49 37.12 724.35 667.23 42.69 72435 681.66 2014 37.12 37.12 857.70 820.66 42.69 857.78 815.09 37.12 729.11 691.99 42.69 729.11 686.42 2615 37.12 37.12 863.42 826.30 42.69 863.42 820.73 37.12 733.91 696.79 42.69 733.91 691.22 TOel 1200.5 851.5 2052.0 jnS 15013 2359.9 1705 14705. 2 3 14505.2 12453.1 2359.M 14502 24 ERR - 3L7% 29.9% 29.4% 26.7% NPV(12%)- 1756.2 1441.9 1375 1264.2 I_: Major numtenunce. G3 Table 2.9 b: Economic Rate of Return (ERR) and Sensitivity Analysis (General Cargo and Fertilizer) (Million Yuan, December 1994 Prices) Bam Cas Cml Cow 2 Cam C_u Teb Not Not Not Not Capib Mshkl- B_fC . Cash Cub DiSifi Cash Cast Baolu cash Cea .'aGM Cas Y_r _ rwhs TOM fits F1w (+1I%) 826 (.15%) F1_ (+25%) (.IS%) F_ 2 257 2970 29.70 (29.7) 34.16 (34.16) 29.70 (29170) 34.16 (34.2) 149 18.51 28.52 (18.5) 21.29 (22.3) 18.51 (28.5) 21.29 (21.3) 193.47 39.47 (39.5) 45.39 (45.4) 39.47 (39.5) 45.39 (45.4) 19" 54.78 54.78 (54.8) 63.00 (63.00) 54.78 (54.7) 63.00 (63.0) 1"1 4.05 4.05 (48.2) 5526 (55.26) 49.05 (405) 55.26 (55.3) 192 202.52 102.52 (102.5) 117.90 (227.90) 102.52 (102.52) 217.90 (117.9) 193 75.97 1742 93.39 255 52 62.2 107.40 125.52 A8.2 93.39 132.19 38.30 207.40 232.29 24.79 194 202.29 17.42 228.62 272.23 52.52 251.40 272.13 29.73 228.62 230.46 21.85 252.40 230.46 -20.94 19S 1742 17.42 386.73 369.32 20.03 386.73 366.70 27.42 32.72 321.30 20.03 328.72 308.69 299 1742 17.42 403.08 317.66 20.03 403.08 38.05 17.42 344.32 326.90 20.03 344.32 32429 1997 27.42 17.42 424.32 406.89 20.03 42431 404.28 27.42 360.66 343.24 20.03 360.66 340.63 199 17.42 17.42 444.45 427.03 20.03 444.45 424.42 27.42 377.78 360.36 20.03 377.78 357.75 ,,n 19" 17.42 27.42 465.54 449.22 20.03 4655.4 445.52 27.42 395.71 378.29 20.03 395.71 375.68 286 27.42 17.42 487.64 470.22 20.03 487.64 467.62 17.42 424.49 397.07 20.03 42449 394.46 292 17.42 17.42 494.53 477.22 20.03 494.53 474.50 17.42 42035 402.93 20.03 420.35 40032 2062 1742 1742 502.5 484.09 20.03 502.51 42148 17.42 426.28 408.86 20.03 426.28 406.25 296U LI 26.13 26.13 50.s9 482.46 30.05 50859 478.54 26.23 432.30 406.17 30.05 432.30 402.25 2M4 LI 26.13 26.23 515.78 49.65 30.05 515.78 485.73 26.23 438.41 412.22 30.05 438,41 408.36 2U0 17.42 17.42 523.06 505.64 20.03 523.06 503.03 17.42 44.60 427.18 20.03 444.60 424.57 29 17742 1742 529.89 522.47 20.03 529.19 50986 27.42 450.42 432.99 20.03 450.42 430.38 297 17.42 17.42 5361 519.39 20.03 53611 516.78 7.42 456.29 438.17 20.03 456.29 436.26 29 27.42 17.42 543s2 526.40 20.03 54312 523.79 17.42 462.25 404.3 20.03 462.25 442.22 2un 17.42 742 550.92 533.50 20.03 550.92 530.89 17.42 468.29 450s.7 20.03 468,29 448.26 2U10 17.42 1742 558.12 540.70 20.03 558.22 53809 17.42 474.40 456.98 20.03 474.40 454.37 211 17.42 17242 562.03 544.62 20.03 562.03 542.00 27.42 477.72 460.30 20.03 477.72 457.69 2912 1742 1742 565.96 548.54 20.03 565.96 545.93 17.42 421.07 463.65 20.03 41o07 461.04 213 17.42 17.42 569.92 552.50 20.03 569.92 54.89 17.42 484.43 467.02 2003 44.43 464.40 2914 17.42 17.42 573.91 556.49 20.03 573.92 553.80 17.42 497.83 470.41 20.03 487.83 467.80 2925 17.42 17.42 577.93 560.52 20.03 577.93 557.90 27.42 492.24 473M2 20.03 492.24 472.22 TOM EM) *1L IS 11153 am I101W Z7 MU 2%. U9L1i 1IM5 3UJ U437 RR. 39.4% 36.2% 3.7% 32.7% NFV(12%)- 129S 122. l2l4 959.2 LI:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I - 60 - ANNEX 2 W2 ~ WI ~~~ - - - - - - - - -- - C ~ ~ " ........¢eg¢ .8W + '^>eAeRSAS- f C U - "a°eet^t^~ > 0)!Sr8w9*Ft2aw2W94 rj,"^^E----->>____ N ai *XI s-' nt ^^^6^6 oeq 0,Z"°oFto= Y ~ U _ °Crxt ,6^^S-"^^^-rtWa4"l;¢,>^AC 1+ ..N c~esE -^ E-eq s22S - c F-l-n$o>.^nW - tS ~ t szSt;X 7s°iSSSSjs A | ""2 Og ^8w w w ww w w w n ww w w ww * k)Z F A > -^^"E-------"------ gI" I SwBwWSwww" I El_____""____ ! X w ", a S ° ^ s E m~-I- _,_, .t~~~~~~~~ …e__ __ _ __ _eq eqnqn.dn i~ Xreq{tl88800-e q .q G3 Table 2.9 d: Economic Rate of Return (ERR) and Sensitivity Analysis (Coal Berths) (Million Yuan, December 1994 Prices) Ba C_ Cl Can 2 Can. 3 OoTsv 1low NOT K NWT N LpIW1 mUim Bam Cash Cast. Bemef4t Cash Cst. BE< flt Cauh Cost Ctms Cash Year Imit. bm s TTOl flts Flow (+15%) Flow (.15%) Flow (+15%) (-15%) Flow 197 30 47 30.47 (30.47) 35.04 (35 04) 30.47 (30.47) 35 04 (35.0) I1J 18.85 18.85 (18.85) 2168 (21.68) 18.85 (18.85) 21.68 (21.7) 190 40.17 40.17 (40.17) 46.20 (4620) 40.17 (40.17) 46.20 (46.2) 1990 55.25 55.25 (55.25) 63.54 (63.54) 55.25 (55.25) 63.54 (63.5) 1"9 48.36 48.36 (49.36) 55.61 (55.61) 48.36 (48.36) 55.61 (55.6) 192 102.67 102.67 (102.7) 18.07 (11o.07) 102.67 (102.67) 118.07 (ll8.l) 1"3 77.80 77.0 (77.80) 89.47 0.00 (89.47) 77.80 0.00 (77.80) 89.47 0.00 (89 5) 194 209.49 209.48 82.38 (127.1) 240.90 82.38 (153.53) 209.48 70.02 (139.46) 240.90 70.02 (170.9) 199 18.22 18.22 164.75 146.53 20.95 164.75 143.80 18.22 140.04 121.82 20.95 140.04 119.09 1"6 18.22 18.22 152.02 133.30 2095 152.02 131.07 18.22 129.22 111.00 20.95 129.22 108.27 197 18.22 18.22 140.28 122.06 2095 140.28 119.33 18.22 119.23 101.01 20.95 119.23 98.28 191 18.22 18.22 129.44 111.22 20.95 129.44 108.49 18.22 110.02 91.80 20.95 110.02 8907 1it 18.22 18.22 119.44 101.22 2095 119.44 98.49 18.22 101.52 8330 20.95 101.52 8057 2000 18.22 18.22 110.21 91.99 20.95 110.21 89.26 18.22 93.68 75.46 20.95 93.68 72.73 2001 18.22 18.22 110.60 92.38 20.95 110.60 89.65 18.22 94.01 75.79 20.95 94.01 73.06 2302 18.22 18.22 110.98 92.76 20.95 110.98 90.03 18.22 94.33 76.11 20.95 94.33 73s8 203 18.22 18.22 11137 93.15 20.95 111.37 90.42 18.22 94.66 76.44 20.95 94.66 73.71 2004 18.22 18.22 111.76 93.54 2095 111.76 90.81 18.22 95.00 76.78 20.95 95.00 74.05 2005 t_1 27.33 27.33 112.15 84.82 31.43 112.15 3o.72 27.33 95.33 68.00 31.43 95.33 63.90 2006 i I 27.33 2733 112.57 85.24 31.43 112.57 81.14 27.33 95.68 68.36 31.43 95.69 64.26 2007 18.22 18.22 113.00 94.78 2095 113.00 92.05 18.22 96.05 77.83 20.95 96.05 75.10 2001 18.22 18.22 113.43 95.21 20.95 113.43 92.49 18.22 96.41 78.19 20.95 96.41 75.46 2009 18.22 18.22 113.86 95.64 20.95 113.86 92.91 18.22 96.70 78.56 20.95 96.78 75.83 2010 18.22 18.22 114.29 96.07 20.95 114.29 93.34 18.22 97.15 78.93 20.95 97.15 76.20 2011 18.22 18.22 115.46 97.24 20.95 115.46 94.51 18.22 98.14 79.92 20.95 98.14 77 19 2012 18.22 18.22 116.65 98.43 20.95 116.65 93.70 18.22 99.15 80.93 20.95 99.15 78.20 2013 18.22 18.22 117.85 99.63 20.95 117.85 6.90 18.22 100.17 81.95 20.95 100.17 79.22 2014 18.22 18.22 119.06 100.84 20.95 119.06 98.11 18.22 101.20 82.98 20.95 101.20 80.25 2015 18.22 18.22 120.28 102.06 20.95 120.28 99.33 18.22 102.24 84.02 20.95 102.24 81.29 Tel s3.0s 404 22 U IIA 1627.9 1131.4 2611J 1400.4 239 2220.0 1236.2 1131.4 2220.0 1A ERR 14.5% 12.2% IlJ% 9.7% NFV(I2%). 59.7 52 (3.7) (51.1) /_: Maor nm,akance. /2: In 1994. tes opation saed m dhe scond halfof&e yew befis mased to be 50% of1995. IMA GIN G Report No: 14770 Type: ICR