Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD3341 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT PAPER ON A PROPOSED ADDITIONAL GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 73.3 MILLION (US$100 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO BURKINA FASO FOR THE EDUCATION ACCESS AND QUALITY IMPROVEMENT PROJECT August 3, 2020 Education Global Practice Africa Western and Central Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective March 31, 2020) Currency Unit = CFA Francs (CFAF) US$1 = CFAF 599 US$1 = SDR 0.73270809 FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AF Additional Financing AFD French Development Agency (Agence Française de Développement) CAST-FSDEB Trust Fund for Basic Education Development Support (Compte d’affectation spéciale du Tresor - Fonds de soutien au développement de l’enseignement de base) CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis CEG Lower Secondary School (College d’enseignement general) CERC Contingent Emergency Response Component COGES School Management Committee (Comite de gestion d’établissement scolaire) CPF Country Partnership Framework CRI Corporate Result Indicator ECE Early Childhood Education EAQIP Education Access and Quality Improvement Project EMC Continuous Multisectoral Survey (Enquête Multisectorielle Continue) EMIS Education Management Information System ESMF Environmental and Social Management Framework ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan FM Financial Management GBV Gender-based Violence GER Gross Enrollment Rate GoBF Government of Burkina Faso GPE Global Partnership for Education GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism GRS Grievance Redress Service HCI Human Capital Index IAI Interactive Audio Instruction IDP Internally Displaced Person IPF Investment Project Financing IRR Internal Rate of Return ISR Implementation Status and Results Report MENAPLN Ministry of Education, Literacy, and Promotion of National Languages (Ministère de l’éducation nationale, de l’alphabétisation et de la promotion des langues nationales) M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NPV Net Present Value OHS Occupational Health and Safety OP Operational Policy PCU Project Coordination Unit PDO Project Development Objective PDSEB Basic Education Strategic Development Program (Programme de développement stratégique de l’éducation de base) PforR Program for Results PLR Performance and Learning Review PNADES National Tertiary Education Development Plan (Plan national de développement de l’enseignement supérieur) PNDES National Economic and Social Development Plan (Plan national de développement économique et social) PPSD Project Procurement Strategy for Development RAP Resettlement Action Plan RPF Resettlement Policy Framework SBMC School-based Management Committee SCADD Strategy for Accelerated Growth and Sustainable Development (Stratégie pour la croissance accélérée et le développement durable) SEA Sexual Exploitation and Abuse SIP School Improvement Plan STEM Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics STEP Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement TVET Technical Vocational Education and Training UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union WBG World Bank Group WASH Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene Regional Vice President: Ousmane Diagana Country Director: Soukeyna Kane Regional Director: Dena Ringold Practice Manager: Meskerem Mulatu Task Team Leader: Adama Ouedraogo Burkina Faso Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing TABLE OF CONTENTS I. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING ........................................ 7 II. DESCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL FINANCING .................................................................... 19 III. KEY RISKS ..................................................................................................................... 29 IV. APPRAISAL SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 32 V. WORLD BANK GRIEVANCE REDRESS .............................................................................. 39 VI SUMMARY TABLE OF CHANGES ..................................................................................... 40 VII DETAILED CHANGE(S) .................................................................................................... 40 VIII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................................... 45 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) BASIC INFORMATION – PARENT (B. Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project (EAQIP) - P148062) Country Product Line Team Leader(s) Burkina Faso IBRD/IDA Adama Ouedraogo Project ID Financing Instrument Resp CC Req CC Practice Area (Lead) P148062 Investment Project HAWE2 (9250) AWCW3 (278) Education Financing Implementing Agency: Ministere de l'Education Nationale et de l'Alphabetisation ADD_FIN_TBL1 Is this a regionally tagged project? No Bank/IFC Collaboration No Expected Original Environmental Approval Date Closing Date Guarantee Current EA Category Assessment Category Expiration Date 02-Apr-2015 31-Jul-2020 Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Financing & Implementation Modalities Parent [ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach [MPA] [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s) [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a Non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on, Enhanced Implementation Support (HEIS) Page 1 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Development Objective(s) The project development objective is to support the Government of Burkina Faso to increase access to pre-school education in the two poorest regions, secondary education in the five poorest regions and to improve teaching and learning. The components in supportof these objectives have been designed to complement other activities financed by the Government and other development partners. Ratings (from Parent ISR) RATING_DRAFT_ NO Implementation Latest ISR 29-Dec-2017 27-Jun-2018 07-Jan-2019 09-Jun-2019 27-Dec-2019 30-Apr-2020 Progress towards achievement of S MS MS S S S PDO Overall Implementation S MS S S S S Progress (IP) Overall Safeguards S MS S S MS MS Rating Overall Risk M M M M M S BASIC INFORMATION – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing - P170452) ADDFIN_TABLE Urgent Need or Capacity Project ID Project Name Additional Financing Type Constraints P170452 Burkina Faso - Education Restructuring, Scale Up No Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing Financing instrument Product line Approval Date Investment Project IBRD/IDA 25-Aug-2020 Financing Projected Date of Full Bank/IFC Collaboration Page 2 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Disbursement 31-Jul-2024 No Is this a regionally tagged project? No Financing & Implementation Modalities Child [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [✓] Fragile State(s) [ ] Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a Non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [✓] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Hands-on, Enhanced Implementation Support (HEIS) [✓] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) Disbursement Summary (from Parent ISR) Net Source of Funds Total Disbursed Remaining Balance Disbursed Commitments IBRD % IDA 50.00 49.40 0.34 99 % Grants % PROJECT FINANCING DATA – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing - P170452) PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) SUMMARY -NewFi n1 SUMMARY (Total Financing) Proposed Additional Total Proposed Current Financing Financing Financing Total Project Cost 51.00 101.30 152.30 Page 3 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Total Financing 51.00 101.30 152.30 of which IBRD/IDA 50.00 100.00 150.00 Financing Gap 0.00 0.00 0.00 DETAILS - Additional Financing NewFinEnh1 World Bank Group Financing International Development Association (IDA) 100.00 IDA Credit 100.00 Non-World Bank Group Financing Counterpart Funding 1.30 Borrower/Recipient 1.30 IDA Resources (in US$, Millions) Credit Amount Grant Amount Guarantee Amount Total Amount Burkina Faso 0.00 100.00 0.00 100.00 National PBA 0.00 100.00 0.00 100.00 Total 0.00 100.00 0.00 100.00 COMPLIANCE Policy Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects? [ ] Yes [ ✔ ] No Does the project require any other Policy waiver(s)? [ ✔ ] Yes [ ] No Explanation The proposed additional financing required RVP authorization to finance food expenditure. Has the waiver(s) been endorsed or approved by Bank Management? Approved by Management [✔] Endorsed by Management for Board Approval [ ] No [ ] Page 4 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Explanation The authorization request to finance food expenditure under The Burkina Faso Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) was approved by AFRVP. INSTITUTIONAL DATA Practice Area (Lead) Education Contributing Practice Areas Climate Change and Disaster Screening This operation has been screened for short and long-term climate change and disaster risks PROJECT TEAM Bank Staff Name Role Specialization Unit Team Leader (ADM Adama Ouedraogo Task Management HAEE1 Responsible) Procurement Specialist (ADM Mathias Gogohounga EAWRU Responsible) Mohamed El Hafedh Procurement Specialist Procurement Specialist EAWRU Hendah Financial Management Sandrine Egoue Ngasseu Financial Management EAWG1 Specialist (ADM Responsible) Gertrude Marie Mathilda Social Specialist (ADM Social Safeguard Specialist SAWS4 Coulibaly Zombre Responsible) Environmental Specialist (ADM Leandre Yameogo Environmental Specialist SAWE1 Responsible) Adama Diop Team Member Financial Specialist WFACS Amina Debissa Denboba Team Member Education Specialist HAWE2 Andrianirina Michel Eric Team Member Financial Specialist WFACS Ranjeva Bintou Sogodogo Team Member Program Assistant HAWE2 Boubakar Lompo Team Member Education Specialist HAWE2 Page 5 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Bouraima Diaite Procurement Team Procurement EAWRU Felly Akiiki Kaboyo Team Member Operations HAWE2 Marouan Maalouf Team Member Legal Counsel LEGAM Roxane Sylvie Maria Team Member Program Assistant AWMBF Medah Bapuuroh Extended Team Name Title Organization Location Page 6 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) I. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Introduction 1. This Project Paper seeks the approval of the Executive Directors for an Additional Financing (AF) Grant in the amount of US$100 million from IDA to Burkina Faso for the Education Access and Quality Improvement Project (EAQIP) (P148062). The Project Development Objective (PDO), to support the Government of Burkina Faso (GoBF) (a) to increase access to preschool education in the two poorest regions and secondary education in the five poorest regions, and (b) to improve teaching and learning, will remain unchanged. The proposed AF (P170452) will finance the scaling-up of successful activities supported under the parent project and the necessary education sector response measures to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and introduce new activities that will further enhance the achievement of the PDO. More specifically, the AF will finance (a) the establishment of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) high schools in each of the six regions1 to further expand the Government’s measures for enhancing equitable and quality science and mathematics learning; (b) the construction of 13 lower secondary schools (College d’Enseignement General, CEGs) and eight upper secondary schools (lycees) to address the unfinished access agenda; (c) the development and implementation of key initiatives including digital solutions to address the growing concern of school closure in areas affected by the ongoing security crisis and the pandemic; and (d) the scale-up of promising activities supported under the parent project, including (i) the expansion of the interactive audio instruction (IAI) model for quality early childhood education (ECE) provision, (ii) the provision of subsidies to students, predominantly girls from poor households, to cover additional costs of schooling, and (iii) the design and implementation of teachers’ capacity improvement initiatives with a focus on math and science including through the creation of a specialized teacher training institute with the aim of instilling innovative science teaching practices. The AF will also include a restructuring of the parent project to (a) extend the closing date of the original financing from July 31, 2020, to July 31, 2024, so that it is aligned with the AF closing date and (b) make the associated changes to the Results Framework in line with the proposed scale-up, extension of the end target dates, and the introduction of a select number of indicators to reflect the expanded scope of the project. The AF responds to a request from the GoBF received on November 8, 2018. 2. By building upon and improving the parent project’s achievements, the AF is expected to benefit an additional 560,000 beneficiaries (comprising 30,000 preschool-age children benefitting from quality ECE provided through IAI; 100,000 school-age children from insecure regions benefitting from continued schooling; 10,000 students from disadvantaged backgrounds benefitting from targeted financial support; 8,700 lower and upper secondary students benefitting from increased access to schools; 395,000 students benefitting from school-based quality initiatives; around 3,000 students benefitting from textbook acquisition; 8,000 lower and upper secondary teachers and 4,400 supervisors; School Management Committee (Comite de gestion d’etablissement scolaire, COGES) members; and ministry staff benefitting from capacity improvement initiatives) over the life of the project. At the same time, sector wide institutional strengthening and capacity building for key stakeholders are built into the project to further strengthen its development impact. 1Dori, région du Sahel; Gaoua, région du Sud-Ouest; Fada N’Gourma, région de l’Est; Manga, région du Centre-Sud; Tenkodogo, région du Centre-Est; and Ziniaré, région du Plateau Central. Page 7 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Background and Rationale 3. Burkina Faso, with an estimated population of 21.5 million and an annual population growth rate of about 3.1 percent (2020), is a young country situated in the Sahel region in West Africa. More than 70 percent of its population is under 30 years of age. The secondary school-age population (ages 12 to 18) is projected to increase from 2.78 million in 2013 to 3.39 million by 2020, and a similar surge is estimated for the university-age population, presenting a potential ‘demographic dividend’ of a large and growing working-age population. Consequently, this young population will put enormous pressure on the education system and the labor market. Whether that population growth will be able to generate economic growth will depend on many factors, chief among them being the younger population’s foundational and academic skill set and training levels. 4. Burkina Faso is ranked 144 out of 157 countries in the World Bank Human Capital Index (HCI) (2018). Across the country, poverty has gradually declined over the last decade, accompanied by lower levels of inequality. Nevertheless, poverty rates remain extremely high, and almost all of the poorest families still lack access to post-primary education, as well as access to electricity and piped water. Health indicators remain among the most severe in the world, including very high infant and maternal mortality. In Burkina Faso, 27 out of 100 children are stunted and therefore are at risk of cognitive and physical limitations that can last a lifetime. In addition to low health outcomes, today’s children who start school at age 4 are expected to complete, on average, just 6.5 years of school by their 18th birthday. Yet, factoring in what children actually learn, the expected years of schooling is only 4.2 years in Burkina Faso. Moreover, the high rates of early marriage and adolescent pregnancy have been limiting girls’ participation in school. These problems vary in severity by ethnic group and are much worse in rural than in urban areas and among the poor. The HCI shows that children born in Burkina Faso today will only reach 37 percent of their productivity potential, because of deficiencies in human capital formation. 5. The widespread poverty in the country is exacerbated by the ongoing insecurity. Since 2016, the security environment in Burkina Faso has deteriorated significantly in the face of relentless ongoing armed conflicts. The country has faced recurring attacks by armed groups in six out of 13 regions: the North, Sahel, North-Central, East, Boucle du Mouhoun, and, increasingly, the Central-East regions. These regions which share borders with Mali, Niger, Togo, and Benin face serious security challenges. The presence of jihadist groups in Mali and Niger and the related increase in attacks, expose Burkina Faso to severe insecurity as the country struggles to secure its highly porous borders. As of January 27, 2020, the Government estimated the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) at 613,792 people spread across all 13 regions of the country. The North-Central region has the largest contingent with 316,812 displaced people, representing 51.6 percent of all IDPs. This is followed by the regions of the Sahel with 212,298 people (34.5 percent), the North with 42,396 people (6.9 percent), the East with 18,329 people (2.9 percent), and the Boucle du Mouhoun with 10,662 people (1.7 percent). 6. Like many countries around the world, Burkina Faso will likely experience serious socioeconomic impacts because of the COVID-19 global pandemic. As of July 18, 2020, Burkina Faso has detected 1,065 cases of COVID-19, with the first cases registered on March 9, 2020. The Government has already adopted containment measures with the suspension of flights and closure of borders, cancelation of events, and prevention of gatherings of more than 50 people. A health contingency plan has been put in place and a first World Bank-financed COVID-19 Preparedness and Response Project is currently being prepared in an amount of US$14.1 million. While COVID-19 is primarily affecting public health, spillover Page 8 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) effects are already been observed in the education sector, stemming largely from extended school closures. To date, COVID-19-driven school closures are affecting almost 4.3 million students throughout the country. Despite the low rates of infection among children, school closures are a critical pillar of the broader social distancing measures in place to mitigate the spread of the disease and avoid an acceleration of cases that will put a strain on health services. Sector Context 7. Notwithstanding the high levels of poverty and insecurity, Burkina Faso has made progress in improving access to education overall. • At preprimary level, preschool enrollment reached 5.2 percent in 2018/2019 compared to 3.8 percent in 2012/2013 which is equivalent to actual enrollments increasing from 67,321 to 105,485. Enrollment rates vary by region ranging from 1.4 percent in the Eastern region to 22.2 percent in the Central region. At primary level, the gross enrollment rate (GER) increased from 81.3 percent in 2012/2013 to 88.8 percent in 2018/2019 which is equivalent to actual enrollments increasing from 2.4 million to 3.2 million. Regional disparities are significant, ranging from a high 109.3 percent in the Northern region to a low 27.3 percent in Sahel region. The GER for girls represents 89.2 percent, slightly above that for boys (88.4 percent). Similarly, the primary completion rate has increased from 59.5 percent in 2012/2013 to 61.7 percent in 2018/2019. Girls’ primary completion rate in 2018/2019 (66.3 percent) remains higher than that of boys (57.4 percent), which decreased by 1.5 percentage points compared to 2012/2013. • At lower secondary level, the GER increased from 44.9 percent in 2014/2015 to 50.5 percent in 2018/2019 corresponding to actual number of enrollments increase from 812,324 to 1,046,425. Compared to the previous year, however, the GER decreased from 52.0 percent in 2017/2018 to 50.5 percent in 2018/2019 which is equivalent to enrollments decreasing from 1,050,354 to 1,046,425. The GER for girls represents 54.1 percent in 2018/2019, above that for boys (41.7 percent). The lower secondary completion rate increased from 26.4 percent in 2014/2015 to 38.9 percent in 2018/2019. Yet, compared to 2017/2018, this rate has decreased from 40.6 percent to 38.9 percent. Girls’ lower secondary completion rate of 41.7 percent in 2018/2019 (compared to 42.1 percent in 2017/2018) remains higher than that for boys (36.3 percent in 2018/2019 compared to 39.2 percent in 2017/2018). • At upper secondary level, the GER increased from 13.2 percent in 2014/2015 to 21.6 percent in 2018/2019 which is equivalent to enrollments increasing from 153,226 to 295,718. The GER for boys is 24.2 percent compared to 19.0 percent for girls, representing a gender parity index of 0.78. Looking at completion, the upper secondary school completion rate reached 15.4 percent in 2018/2019 compared to 11.3 percent in 2014/2015. Girls’ upper secondary completion rate has also improved over time, reaching 12.9 percent in 2018/2019 compared to 8.9 percent in 2014/2015. However, this rate remains low compared to 17.8 percent for boys. 8. The GoBF is implementing its 10-year Basic Education Strategic Development Program (Programme de développement stratégique de l’education de base, PDSEB) (2012–2021). This program has since been complemented by the National Tertiary Education Development Plan (Plan national d’action de développement de l’enseignement supérieur, PNADES) launched in July 2013. The PDSEB was designed to achieve the Government’s national education policy goals including reaching the relevant Sustainable Development Goal 4. The GoBF has clearly stated its education sector priorities: (a) fully Page 9 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) operationalize the principles of compulsory and free public education (to be gradually extended to the lower secondary education); (b) improve the transition from primary to lower secondary education; (c) reduce overcrowding; and (d) strengthen school management. 9. A sector-wide comprehensive approach is at the heart of the GoBF strategy to reform the education sector. A variety of skills are needed to improve productivity in priority sectors and ensure the diversification of Burkina Faso’s economy. These skills span the basic skills acquired in basic education, middle-level skills produced in general secondary education, skills acquired through technical and vocational training, and high-level professional skills acquired through tertiary education. The various subsector strategies (including PDSEB, the strategy development for secondary education, the National Strategy for Technical Vocational Education and Training [TVET], and the PNADES) have been integrated into a sector development program (Plan sectoriel de l'education et de la formation, 2017-2030) to facilitate the development of required skills. The program aims to reform the education system to create greater coherence in the curriculum within and between cycles, improve quality and increase internal efficiency, and reform education and training to enhance the employability of youth. 10. Yet, despite the Government’s commitment and ongoing efforts to maintain progress made thus far, the impact of the security crisis continues to reverberate today. Rampant insecurity has negatively affected the whole education system. Threats to and attacks of schools began during the 2016/2017 academic year in the Sahel region and gradually increased during the 2017/2018 academic year, leading to school closure in the affected regions. As of February 2020, more than 2,400 primary, lower secondary, and upper secondary schools had closed, forcing around 318,200 students and about 9,800 teachers out of schools, resulting in significant loss of instructional time. As a result, education provision in the affected areas continues to be a significant challenge as schools continue to be the primary target of attacks and threats by non-state armed groups. Despite the decrease of school closures after the military operation in the East region in February and March 2019, the number of schools closed has significantly increased since January 2020. 11. Furthermore, the current global health pandemic has resulted in school closures nationwide. On March 14, 2020, the GoBF decided to close all preprimary, primary, and secondary schools as well as technical and vocational institutes and universities for an initial period of 15 days. While schools remain closed until further notice, as of June 1, 2020, the Government has decided on a phased reopening starting with students sitting for standard exams in primary and secondary schools. A comprehensive set of safety, health, and sanitary guidelines have been established to inform the reopening of schools. Extended interruption to education, which disengages students from the teaching-learning process has the potential of reversing gains in learning outcomes, especially if school closures are extended over a long period. It may also likely come at a higher cost for students with learning disadvantages (academic or socioeconomic) who may not effectively cope with remote learning strategies. In secondary schools in particular, longer school closures could result in an increased risk of dropout for youth, particularly from lower income groups. It may also affect the ability of students to participate in high-stakes national examinations. School closures also increase the burden on parents, who need to stay home or find new arrangements for childcare. In addition to the difficulties this may provoke, parents may not be adequately prepared or equipped to support home-based learning for their children. School closures, and broader social distancing measures, also imply that teachers and education staff will face challenges in providing continued support to student learning, and perhaps even after schooling resumes. Page 10 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) 12. To respond to this crisis, the Government has developed a strategy for education service delivery in high security risk areas. The strategy highlights the Government’s vision for an ‘equitable, inclusive, and quality education where teaching and learning activities take place in a healthy and protected school environment for all children in areas affected by the security crisis, with the support and guidance of a resilient community’. This strategy commits to the continued education of affected children and offers options where education can be delivered in host communities and in areas of residence according to various alternative education delivery models such as school shifts reorganized by taking into account non-classroom activities (recreational and developmental activities), modular catch-up programs set up and accelerated courses corresponding to the volume of time lost by IDPs and refugees, alternative education programs (Koranic, education for nomadic groups), and expansion of the Franco-Arab Education Program according to community demand. These models are expected to be implemented with a focus on school protection that involve active community participation. Since the 2017/2018 academic year, the Ministry of Education, Literacy, and Promotion of National Languages (Ministère de l’Education Nationale, de l’Alphabétisation et de la Promotion des Langues Nationales, MENAPLN) has organized catch-up courses and special end-of-cycle exams for children who have received at least three months of education during the year. In addition, given the potential COVID-19-related challenges ahead, the Government has started to develop its response plan with timely inputs from key education stakeholders. 13. Notwithstanding the continued sector wide initiatives and ongoing efforts by the GoBF and its development partners, the following key challenges remain, and are the central focus of the original financing and the AF: • Limited access to preprimary, primary (which remains the main focus area of other development partners’ interventions), and secondary education • School closures, a growing concern due to increased insecurity in the Sahel coupled with the global pandemic (COVID-19) • Poor quality of education translated into persistently low levels of learning outcomes • Inadequate and weak proficiency levels in mathematics and science • Limited availability of qualified teachers • Poor educational environment Original Project Background and Performance 14. The Burkina Faso EAQIP (financed by an IDA grant in the amount of SDR 35.5 million [US$50 million equivalent] was approved on April 2, 2015 and became effective on October 30, 2015. The PDO is to support the GoBF (a) to increase access to preschool education in the two poorest regions, secondary education in the five poorest regions and (b) to improve teaching and learning. The project has three components: Component 1: Expanding equitable access to preschool education in the two poorest regions and secondary education in the five poorest regions; Component 2: Improving the quality of teaching and learning; and Component 3: Contributing to strengthening education institutional capacity at central and decentralized entities. 15. The parent project responded to the Government’s development priority articulated in its Strategy for Accelerated Growth and Sustainable Development (Stratégie pour la croissance accélérée et le développement durable, SCADD) and Education Sector Policy. The project is fully aligned with the Page 11 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) objectives of the SCADD, especially with regard to the development of human capital to support accelerated growth. 16. The parent project has demonstrated early success and has made commendable progress toward achieving its PDO and related outcomes. Moreover, the pace of implementation has been satisfactory. In the most recent Implementation Status and Results Report (ISR), progress toward achievement of the PDO was upgraded to Satisfactory from its previous rating of Moderately Satisfactory to reflect the progress made in quality improvement activities under in Component 2. To date, three out of four PDO-level indicators have been fully achieved and demonstrate improved access and learning gains. The specific result achievements are provided in Table 1. Table 1. Key Results Achieved under the Parent Project PDO Indicators Baseline Initial Achievement to Target Date Increase in the grade promotion rate in lower secondary 59.10 66.00 68.10 education in the 5 targeted regions (percentage) o Increase in girls' grade promotion rate in lower 59.70 66.00 64.00 secondary education in the 5 targeted regions (percentage) Increase in gross intake rate in the first grade of lower 41.10 62.00 43.60 secondary education in the 5 targeted regions (percentage) o Increase in girls' gross intake rate in the first grade of 39.20 61.00 45.10 lower secondary education in the 5 targeted regions (percentage) Increase in gross intake rate in the first grade of upper 8.70 14.00 14.30 secondary education in the 5 targeted regions (percentage) o Increase in girls' gross intake rate in the first grade of 4.10 12.00 11.60 upper secondary education in the 5 targeted regions (percentage) Number of additional students enrolled in early childhood 0.00 15,000 15,446 education using interactive audio instruction programs in the 2 targeted regions and Ouagadougou Direct project beneficiaries 0.00 83,494 121,575 17. Implementation progress continues to be rated Satisfactory. Since effectiveness on October 30, 2015, the project has made sound progress in the achievement of its objectives and implementation continues to progress well. Disbursement currently stands at US$48.61 million, representing 97.7 percent of the total IDA funding. Two major activities of the project—the construction of the two STEM high schools and curriculum improvement—which constitute a large financial allocation contributed to the increased disbursement rate. It is also expected that disbursements will continue on a strong upward trend, and that the project’s results indicators will be fully achieved by the end of the current project closing date. 18. All planned activities under the parent project are well advanced, and the project has overall achieved the objective to (a) increase access to preschool education in the two poorest regions, secondary education in the five poorest regions and (b) improve teaching and learning. More specifically, the project has made satisfactory progress, including the following: (a) 20 new CEGs and 20 Page 12 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) upper secondary schools (lycées) have been built and equipped; (b) five existing CEGs have been expanded with additional classrooms to provide upper secondary education; and (c) the two STEM high schools (lycées scientifiques) are operational. The targeted financial support benefitted 1,000 selected students, predominantly girls from poor households. The ECE activities have been piloted in 88 schools in two regions. The preparation phase (curriculum design and materials acquisition) has been completed, 320 ECE caregivers have been trained, and the first cohort of 15,546 children have benefitted from quality ECE provided through IAI. In addition, 766 school improvement plans (SIPs) have been funded and are being implemented and the refresher training (around topics like participatory micro-planning, mobilization of resources, advocacy, partnership, and the development and implementation of SIPs of 2,061 responsible for COGES) has been provided in all relevant regions. In terms of learning assessment and examination system, the parent project has achieved satisfactory results: the national survey on learning outcomes was completed. Furthermore, 40 teachers and supervisors in lower and upper secondary education have been trained in the development of quality and relevant evaluation items. Rationale for Additional Financing 19. The proposed AF for the Burkina Faso EAQIP is consistent with Operational Policy OP/BP 10.00 (Investment Project Financing) under which IDA may provide AF for investment lending for scaling up the development effectiveness of a project that is performing well. All the necessary requirements to process an AF have been met: (a) implementation progress and progress toward achievement of PDO have been consistently rated Moderately Satisfactory or Satisfactory over the last 12 months; (b) all legal covenants have been complied with; (c) there are no outstanding audit reports; and (d) the project will follow the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations for Borrowers for Goods, Works, Non-Consulting, and Consulting Services dated July 1, 2016, revised November 2017 and August 2018 as well as the World Bank’s guidelines on anticorruption ‘Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants,’ dated October 15, 2006, and revised in January 2011 and in July 2016. 20. The proposed AF effectively addresses the key priorities of the national development agenda. The project is aligned with the objectives of the Burkina Faso’s national socioeconomic blueprint for development (Plan national de développement economique et social, PNDES, 2016-2020), specifically regarding the human capital development to support the growth agenda. A large variety of skills are needed to improve productivity in priority areas and ensure the diversification of Burkina Faso’s economy. These skills span the basic skills acquired in basic education up to high-level professional skills acquired through tertiary education. The education sector strategy to produce required skills relies on various subsector strategies which include the PDSEB, the strategy development for secondary education, the National Strategy for TVET, and the PNADES. The GoBF’s priorities include (a) developing ECE to ensure quality education throughout the education system; (b) operationalizing the principles of compulsory and free public education (to be gradually extended to lower secondary education); (c) improving the transition from primary to lower secondary education; (d) reducing overcrowding; and (e) strengthening school management. The overall aim of reform is to create greater coherence in the curriculum within and between cycles, improve quality and increase internal efficiency, and reform education and training to enhance the employability of youth. 21. The project is fully aligned with the World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) (FY18–FY22) (Report No. 123712 – BF, July 5, 2018) and related priorities to promote skills development. Page 13 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Specifically, it will support Focus Area 2 of the CPF pertaining to building human capital for achieving the Government’s vision for structural transformation and diversification of the economy. While preparation of a Performance and Learning Review (PLR) has been put on hold during this exceptional period, the team expects the PLR to make adjustments to the CPF Results Framework taking into account the impacts of COVID-19 and how the World Bank Group (WBG) engagement can help to support a resilient recovery. In addition, the project will complement various ongoing interventions by development partners (Table 2). While the project focuses mainly on preprimary and secondary education, interventions by development partners focus generally on other subsectors, with a large focus on basic education primarily. Specifically, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the French Development Agency (Agence Française de Développement, AFD), and the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) provide support to basic education through their respective projects addressing access, quality, equity as well as overall education system strengthening in Burkina. Table 2. Education Support Projects by Development Partners, the World Bank, and Other Donors Agency Support AFD Strengthen human capital through the development of PDSEB: (CFAF 5,895,000,000) the education system to address social cohesion challenges and meet the long-term needs of the economy. UNICEF Trust fund for basic education development support (Compte d’affectation spéciale du trésor - Fonds de soutien au développement de l’éducation de base, Support for the implementation of the basic education CAST-FSDEB): CFAF 250,000,000 sector plan through (a) improving access, equity, and Global Partnership for Education quality of basic education; (b) developing lower CAST-FSDEB (CFAF 5,259,334,000) secondary education; and (c) supporting the Suisse decentralization agenda. CAST-FSDEB (CFAF 1,120,000,000) Canada CAST-FSDEB ( CFAF 6,450,000,000) Japan Educational infrastructure construction project (projet Construction of primary and CEGs and teacher training de construction d’infrastructures educatives): CFAF institutions. 216,552,380,000 Luxembourg Teachers and pedagogical advisers training project in technical and vocational education and training (projet Increase the number of male and female teaching staff de formation d’enseignants et de conseillers and educational advisors for TVET institutions. pédagogiques de l’enseignement et la formation technique et professionnelle, FECOP-EFTP) : CFAF 1,311,914,000 World Bank Increase access to (a) preprimary education in the two Education access and quality improvement project poorest regions and (b) secondary education in the (projet d’amélioration de l’accès et de la qualité de five poorest regions and improve teaching and l’education) : CFAF 25,000,000,000 learning. Note: This table does not provide a comprehensive list of education projects in Burkina but rather presents a snapshot of the major education interventions that have a national or multi-regional scope. Page 14 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) 22. The project is well-aligned with the World Bank Group COVID-19 Crisis Response Approach Paper which sets out the WBG’s approach to supporting countries as they tackle the unprecedented threats and challenges posed by the COVID-19 crisis. As of July 29, 2020, Burkina Faso has detected 1,106 cases of COVID-19, with the first cases registered on March 9, 2020. The death rate (6.42 percent) remains one of the highest in the world with 48 deaths among 748 confirmed cases on May 9, 2020. 23. The COVID-19 pandemic has seriously impacted Burkina Faso’s short- and medium-term economic outlook. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, economic growth averaged 6.2 percent during 2017- 2019. Significant fiscal adjustment helped reduce the fiscal deficit from 6.8 percent of GDP in 2017 to 3.2 percent in 2019. GDP growth was projected at 6 percent in 2020 and the fiscal deficit at 2.9 percent of GDP. The COVID-19 crisis has dramatically altered these projections. The economy is now expected to stagnate and possibly contract over 2020 with sharply negative per capita growth (at least -3 percent). The economic downturn is a result of both a decline in external trade, including from lower cotton prices, and domestic supply- and demand-side disruptions stemming from the health crisis. Uncertainty regarding macroeconomic projections remains very high. 24. The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to over 6 percent of GDP in 2020, with pressure coming from rising security and COVID-19 spending, and lower revenues. As a result, public debt will increase further, and with limited concessional funding available the trend towards more expensive financing on the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) securities market will continue. The country’s indicative financing requirements include US$1 billion (6 percent of GDP) in 2020 and US$2.3 billion in 2021 and are expected to be financed by grants (US$300 million in 2020; $400 in 2021) and debt (US$600 million in 2020 and US$1.4 billion 2021). Financing is expected to be made available from the proposed Development Policy Financing, the International Monetary Fund (Extended Credit Facility and Rapid Credit Facility), as well as other multilateral development banks and bilaterals such as the African Development Bank, AFD, European Union, West-African Development Bank (Banque Ouest Africaine de Développement - BOAD), and savings from the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). The residual financing gap is expected to be closed through issuance of bonds and T-bills. Domestic debt roll-over is expected to peak in 2021 and 2023. 25. Assuming a second wave in COVID-19 infections, the economy is projected to rebound very slowly in 2021 and 2022, with potential growth underpinned by private investment in the growing gold sector and in the cotton sector which is undergoing restructuring and rehabilitation. Yet, the relatively favorable medium-term economic outlook carries significant downside risks. The humanitarian and security crises, respectively, could jeopardize labor supply across sectors and production, especially in the mining and agricultural sectors. These crises are occurring in a context of widespread poverty, fragility, and vulnerability to climate and trade shocks. Moreover, in the absence of effective containment and appropriate mitigation and recovery measures taken, the local outbreak and community transmission of COVID-19 in Burkina Faso, combined with the global economic recession, could negatively and more durably affect the economy. The Government is committed to gradually regain the WAEMU 3 percent of GDP fiscal deficit target, but this appears unlikely to be achieved before 2025. 26. COVID-19 is expected to reverse gains in recent poverty reduction. Scenario analysis suggests that the poverty rate (based on the international US$1.90 per day standard) will rise in 2020 to 37 percent or higher. Overall vulnerability is high in the context of the country’s existing humanitarian, security and social crises. While direct impacts such as loss of earnings due to illness and out-of-pocket health expenses Page 15 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) could be manageable, indirect socioeconomic impacts are more widespread, severe, and uncertain. Among those impacts are loss of labor income, loss of non-labor incomes (including remittances), disruption of markets and supply chains, and disruptions in basic service delivery. While the pandemic is primarily affecting public health service delivery, spillover effects have been observed in the education sector, stemming largely from extended school closures. 27. The COVID-19 outbreak has resulted in school closures nationwide, putting nearly four million children at risk of falling further behind in educational attainment, with severe consequences for the country’s future human capital. The Government responded vigorously to the COVID-19 outbreak in Burkina Faso with restrictions of movement and gathering, including curfews. This initial period ran from March to June 2020, with a progressive easing of constraints starting at end-April. A series of measures to mitigate the economic impact was announced on April 3, 2020 and covered many sectors of the economy, including some targeted measures to support presumably poorer utility customers, economic stimulus measures, and research support. To adjust to the new circumstances, the Government prepared a new budget law which was unveiled in mid-June 2020. 28. Following the Government’s decisive and early action to contain and mitigate the spread of the virus, schools and universities were closed on March 14, 2020, one week after the announcement of the first confirmed COVID-19 cases. School closures are a critical pillar of the broader social-distancing measures in place to mitigate the spread of the virus and avoid an acceleration of cases that will put a strain on health services. While schools remain closed until further notice, as of June 1, 2020, the Government decided on a phased reopening starting with students sitting for standard examinations authorized to return to take their exams in primary and secondary schools. A comprehensive set of safety, health, and sanitary guidelines has been established to inform the reopening of schools. All other grades were deemed to have completed the curriculum and students will start the next school year one grade higher. 29. As part of the education sector's response to the COVID-19 pandemic and in line with the Partnership Framework, the Government has developed and adopted the education sector's response plan to COVID-19. Since 2007, the Government has established a Partnership Framework which defines the education sector framework for consultation and dialogue between the Government and its development partners through joint meetings, monitoring missions, and thematic discussions. To avoid learning loss, the Government together with the World Bank and other development partners has quickly established remote learning programs delivered through the radio and TV channels. In addition, a COVID- response accelerated funding from the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) has been secured in the amount of US$7 million. The project was launched on June 30, 2020 and is currently being implemented by the AFD as the Grant Agent. In addition, ad hoc support from other development partners has been provided to support the implementation of the COVID-19 response plan within the Partnership Framework. Education Cannot Wait will provide US$1.5 million in collaboration with UNICEF, Plan International Burkina Faso, Save The Children, UNHCR, and the Educo Foundation. UNESCO has also committed to provide US$0.2 million to support digital content production and recording of radio and television programs. 30. In response to COVID-19, the WBG’s support to Burkina Faso has been adjusted to effectively address current challenges driven by the pandemic. Responding to the crisis will in many cases mean diverging from the program agreed to with the Government under the CPF. This will entail (i) adjusting Page 16 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) the focus of the portfolio under implementation through restructuring or Additional Finance to IPFs or to Program for Results (PforRs); (ii) adjusting the sequencing of pipeline operations by prioritizing those that may be more relevant in the current circumstances and delaying or canceling others and (iii) preparing new or modified operations that had not been envisaged earlier. 31. The WBG’s support will follow a phased approach in full alignment with the WBG COVID Response Framework: short-term (Protecting lives), medium-term (Preserving the economy), and long- term (Preserving the future). In the short-term, the WBG’s support is targeted towards reducing the number of COVID cases, providing support for care, and narrowing the financing gap in the country. The WBG will provide in 2020 about US$310 million in development policy financing that includes the second operation of the regular ongoing series (US$150 million, including a post-COVID addition of US$50 million), a regional operation on energy (US$60 million), and a new Crisis-Response operation (US$100 million). It will also finance the health sector (US$25 million), the planned Public Administration Modernization Project (US$7 million), the Local Government Support Project (US$2 million), the Emergency Retroactive Cost Financing Project (US$3 million), and the Water and Sanitation Program (US$8 million). In the medium-term, the WBG’s support will focus on increasing institutional capacity, enhancing recovery, and preserving human capital and livestock. Through a planned total investment of US$88-US$118 million, the WBG will finance social safety nets to meet new needs (US$15-US$50 million), eBurkina Faso (US$2 million) to ensure continuity of government services, the Public Administration Modernization Project (US$1 million), the Financial Inclusion Project (US$9 million), the Local Government Support Project (US$43 million), the Agriculture Competitiveness Strengthening Project (US$10 million), the Decentralized Forest and Woodland Management Project (US$1 million) and the Regional Pastoralist Support Project/Burkina Faso Livestock Sector Development Support Project (US$8 million). Furthermore, the WBG will provide analytical and advisory services for improved policy- and decision-making including impact assessment of the crisis on households as well as on formal and possibly informal businesses. 32. The WBG coordinates closely with other partners to ensure that its funding is complementary. The World Bank provides a considerable share of development financing in Burkina Faso (21.78 percent) and supports nine sectors of the PNDES. The European Union provides 19.4 percent and also intervenes in nine sectors, while the African Development Bank (11.2 percent) and the United States (9.5 percent), respectively cover five and three sectors. According to the National Directorate of Cooperation, four sectors of the PNDES account for the highest concentration of financing: (i) Economic Governance, due primarily to the large volume of general budget support; (ii) Environment, Water and Sanitation; Industrial and Artisanal Processing; and Agribusiness and Livestock Production. The WBG is active in all these sectors. 33. As part of the group of countries in the Sahel Alliance, Burkina Faso, together with the World Bank and other development partners, has agreed to a dedicated partnership framework to further institutionalize and scale up results in the crisis-affected Sahel. The priority sectors identified by the Alliance partners are: a) youth employment, education and training; b) agriculture and food security; c) climate, energy access and green energy; d) governance, including judicial systems and countering corruption; and e) provision of basic services and support for decentralization. These sectors are aligned with the national priority program for the Sahel (Programme d’urgence pour le Sahel), and with the focus areas of the CPF. Page 17 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) 34. The proposed AF will support the Government’s education sector relief, recovery, and resilience response measures to effectively address COVID-19. The proposed interventions are fully in line with the thematic pillars of the World Bank Group COVID Response Framework. Specifically, the project is aligned with: (i) the first pillar - ‘saving lives’ - through the provision of health education and hygiene interventions to support students and teachers with improved water, sanitation, and hygiene practices; (ii) the second pillar - ‘protecting the poor and vulnerable’ - through the delivery of distance learning programs for continued education during the period of pandemic-induced school closures and remote training of teachers and education sector actors; and (iii); the fourth pillar - ‘strengthening policies and institutions’ – by providing the necessary technical assistance to enhance the resilience of the education system including the design and implementation of COVID-19 relief, recovery, and resilience measures. Such measures aim to ensure the continuity of learning and to prepare the reopening of schools in a safe and inclusive environment. These include but are not limited to: (i) Relief: alternative remote-learning programs, community sensitization, distribution of foods, distribution of hygiene kits; (ii) Recovery: enhanced sanitation measures in schools and catch-up programs to compensate for any learning loss; and (iii) Resilience: deployment of appropriate awareness protocols and materials; community involvement in school management. 35. The proposed AF is meant to strengthen key results achieved under the parent project while responding to the new COVID-19-driven challenges in the sector. The AF will further expand access to preprimary and secondary education, improve the quality of education outcomes, and expand the output of quality lower and upper secondary education graduates. The Government is unlikely to be able to sustain the education interventions initially supported by the parent project solely with its own resources, given many competing sectors and increased spending related to the growing insecurity in the subregion and increased fiscal pressures due to the impacts of the pandemic. Tackling the issues of access and quality of education is imperative for a country with such a growing number of out-of-school children and youth drop-outs. The proposed AF would help preserve and expand on the key achievements of the parent project through effectively addressing the newly added challenges in the outbreak of COVID-19 and in full alignment with Pillars 1, 2, and 4 of the COVID-19 Response Framework. The AF would therefore have multiple beneficial effects, through continued and scaled interventions, positively contributing to quality education delivery and in support of the PDO. In addition, sector-wide institutional strengthening and capacity-building activities for key stakeholders is built into the AF to further strengthen its development impact, consistent with Pillar 4 of the COVID-19 Response Framework. 36. The project will also support a series of promising innovations to improve the quality of teaching and learning. Evidence-based technological tools will be used across the education system, more specifically at student, teacher, and system levels, as described in Box 1. Page 18 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Box 1. Key Innovations for More and Better Learning Student level . •IAI for quality ECE provision •Initiation to STEM: finding local solutions to local problems through the introduction of robotics •Performance reward to best performing students and best performing schools for increased incentives •Alternative distant learning programs for continued education during insecurity and COVID-19-driven school closure Teacher level . •Distance learning programs for continued teachers professional development •Distance training programs for community volunteers in conflict-affected areas to address school closure •Math and science teaching enhancement through maintaining a body of qualified and highly experienced STEM teachers into the profession System level . •Unique student identifier introduced into the Education Management Information System (EMIS) for enhanced monitoring •Statistical improvement at the regional level for enhanced data collection, data use, and decentralized decision-making •Decentralized school management through COGES - appropriate local solutions coupled with adequate resources for enhanced school management and performance •Geo-enabling for monitoring and supervision: using simple and low-cost technology for remote supervision, and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) 37. In light of the above, the AF will allow scaling up the development effectiveness of the EAQIP. An AF, rather than a new operation, represents an opportunity for scaling up and achieving additional results of a well-performing project. It will better consolidate and scale up the current activities, operational approach, and procedures and allow for continuity in the engagement. II. DESCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL FINANCING Project Development Objectives 38. The PDO is to support the Government of Burkina Faso (GoBF) to: (a) increase access to preschool education in the two poorest regions, secondary education in the five poorest regions, and (b) improve teaching and learning. 39. To be consistent with the financing agreement, the following additional description has been removed from the PDO statement in the portal: ‘The components in support of these objectives have been designed to complement other activities financed by the Government and other development partners.’ Changes in the Results Framework 40. The updated Results Framework reflects the scale-up and expanded scope of the project under the AF. The following changes have been made: Page 19 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) • At the PDO level. The total number of direct project beneficiaries has been scaled up to reflect the additional students and teachers who will benefit from the project, for a sum of about 560,000 additional beneficiaries. The number of additional students enrolled in early childhood education using IAI in the 2 targeted regions and Ouagadougou has also been scaled up to reflect the additional number of children who will benefit from the project, for a sum of 45,000 students. Moreover, the baseline and end targets of two PDO-level indicators—'increase in grade promotion rate in lower secondary education disaggregated by gender in the 5 targeted regions’ and ‘increase in gross intake rate in the first grade of lower secondary education in the 5 targeted regions disaggregated by gender’—have been updated to reflect more accurate data available and respective end targets adjusted to reflect the upward trend related to the AF. • At the intermediate level. Four intermediate-level indicators, including a corporate result indicator (CRI) and a citizen engagement indicator, have been added to take into account the additional activities included under the AF. These indicators include (i) number of students in conflict-affected areas who, after interruption, continue their education as a result of the project's interventions; (ii) number of students benefiting from direct interventions to enhance learning (CRI); (iii) digital system established to allow secondary students and teachers access relevant educational materials; and (iv) citizens and/or communities involved in planning, implementation, and evaluation of project interventions (citizen engagement indicator). In addition, a new sub-indicator has been added under the intermediate result indicator ‘Number of students benefiting from the scholarship program’ to measure the proportion of female beneficiaries remaining in school and surviving through their current education cycle. • Annual/end of project target dates. The end target date for each of the indicators will be extended to reflect the new closing date. While most of the activities under the parent project have been fully achieved, the end target dates have all been extended to the new closing date to ensure clear M&E of all indicators from the original financing through the AF. In addition, the end targets of select indicators have been revised upward to reflect the scale-up. These indicators include (a) number of preschool class facilitators enrolled in the short-track training successfully certified by the end of the project; (b) number of additional classrooms built in lower and upper secondary schools; (c) number of students benefitting from the scholarship program; (d) increase in gross enrollment rate in lower secondary education in the five poorest regions; (e) increase in gross enrollment rate in upper secondary education in the five poorest regions; (f) percentage of teachers who have been coached in situ by supervisors; (g) percentage of lower and upper secondary teachers who have participated in in-service training; and (h) lower secondary schools that have functional SBMCs in the targeted five poorest regions. The proposed end targets measuring increased access fully take into account the negative impact of insecurity on education delivery. Furthermore, faulty baseline data presented under the parent project will be amended to reflect more accurate data available. Components 41. The components will receive additional funds as follows: Component 1 (US$52.3 million); Component 2 (US$42.3 million); Component 3 (US$6.7 million); and Component 4 (US$0). The proposed changes by component are elaborated in the following paragraphs. Page 20 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Component 1: Expanding equitable access to preschool education in the two poorest regions and secondary education in the five poorest regions (US$30.0 million original financing; US$52.3 million AF equivalent) 42. Component 1 aims at expanding equitable access to (a) quality ECE and (b) secondary education. Table 3 presents the proposed key interventions under Component 1. Subcomponent 1.1: Increasing access and quality of early childhood education through the piloting of an interactive audio instruction (IAI) program and short-track certification program (US$2.0 million original financing; US$3.2 million AF equivalent) 43. Building on the successes of the initial IAI pilot program implemented under the parent project— which provided quality ECE to approximately 15,546 children ages 3–5 years—the AF will consolidate the experimentation of this approach and scale it to reach at least 30,000 additional preschool-age children. The AF will finance the expansion of the IAI including the acquisition of equipment, training of instructors, tools adaptation in an additional language, and technical assistance. Similar to the parent project, villages and communes are expected to contribute physical space for ECE instruction and food for beneficiary children. While preschool facilitators will be paid by the project initially, advocacy activities will be conducted in parallel with the communes and the ministry so that this cost is gradually integrated into regular budget expenditures to ensure program sustainability. In addition, the AF will finance an impact evaluation of the IAI program to further inform policy dialogue and explore its potential expansion to other parts of the country. Based on the findings of the impact evaluation and at the request of the Government, the AF will support the expansion of the IAI model to other parts of the country, in particular the adaptation of the program content, the training of instructors, and the acquisition of equipment. 44. As under the parent project, the MENAPLN Directorate in charge of preschool education will assume lead responsibility for oversight and management of the program. Subcomponent 1.2: Expanding access to secondary education (US$28.0 million original financing; US$27.3 million AF equivalent) 45. The parent project has significantly contributed to increase access to secondary education in the five poorest regions of the country, directly benefitting more than 20,000 students including 10,000 girls (50 percent). The parent project has successfully built 327 classrooms in total through the construction of (a) 20 CEGs hosting a total of 5,600 students; (b) 5 CEGs attached to the existing upper secondary schools, hosting 600 students; and (c) 20 upper secondary schools hosting 7,200 students. In addition, as part of the public-private partnership, 55 additional classrooms were built in lower and upper secondary schools, accommodating 3,575 students. These classrooms also allowed 179 students from disadvantaged backgrounds to benefit from the quality education offered, which was previously not accessible. Lastly, ten new secondary schools—including five lower secondary education schools and five upper secondary schools—were built which allowed an additional 3,200 students to be enrolled. 46. Despite this improvement, however, equitable access to secondary education remains a challenge in Burkina Faso—with the current supply of secondary education well below the existing demand— especially for disadvantaged girls in rural areas. To address this challenge, the AF will finance a set of interrelated activities such as (a) the construction of additional new CEGs and upper secondary schools Page 21 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) (lycées); (b) the construction of STEM high schools (lycées scientifiques); (c) the establishment of a national STEM teacher training institute; (d) scholarship programs; and (e) key initiatives to maintain access to education in insecure areas affected by the ongoing school closure phenomenon. 47. School construction. Under the AF, the project will finance the construction of 13 CEGs and eight upper secondary schools (lycées) mainly in localities of the five poorest regions of the country where the demand remains high. In regions affected by the security crisis, such as the North, the Sahel, and the East, new schools will be built, as needed, in areas closer to students who are victims of school closure including outside the targeted five poorest regions. 48. STEM high schools (lycées scientifiques). The GoBF aims to establish one STEM high school in each of the 13 regions of the country as part of its promotion of math and science teaching. At present, the country has two ‘national’ STEM high schools located in Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso, which are already functional, and an additional four ‘regional’ STEM high schools are under construction in the Center-Nord, Boucle du Mouhoun, Center-Ouest, and Nord regions. To complement this effort, under the AF, the project will finance the establishment of one additional national STEM high school and six regional STEM high schools in the remaining regions of the country. The regional high schools will be different in size compared to the national STEM boarding high schools of Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso. 49. The MENAPLN will develop a technical note that details the specifications of these ‘regional’ schools, which will be made available before the start of construction activities. In addition, the project will finance the establishment of specialized preparatory classes (classes preparatoires) in the existing national STEM high school of Bobo-Dioulasso. This will include the construction of additional classrooms and an expansion of the boarding school. The project will establish the necessary prevention and mitigation measures against any potential gender-based violence (GBV) in schools. Particularly, the two national STEM boarding high schools of Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso will have separate dormitories for boys and girls. A team of female supervisors will be engaged on a full-time basis and will be trained to establish relationships of trust with female students. By being fully present at the school premises, these female supervisors will play a key role if/when a problem occurs. The girls are expected to effectively report to them any potential concerns that they may have at any time and the supervisors are expected to directly report to the school administration to handle any potential case through a formal grievance redress mechanism (GRM) that will be established. 50. Scholarship program. The parent project financed activities to stimulate demand for secondary education. These included the expansion of fee reduction policies implemented under the Post-Primary Education Project Phase 2 and the reduction of associated costs to households, especially poor families, through the provision of subsidies to students to help finance additional costs associated with schooling. About 1,000 selected students, predominantly girls from poor households, benefitted from financial support to cover additional schooling costs. As under the parent project, the AF will provide targeted support to an additional 10,000 students, mostly disadvantaged girls from poor households. Based on lessons learned from the parent project, resource management will be strengthened at the MENAPLN's decentralized structures and communes while maintaining the overall monitoring exercise by union organizations. Building on the successes of the parent project, the program will be expanded to all 13 regions of Burkina Faso to reach the proposed additional 10,000 students. Page 22 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Subcomponent 1.3: Addressing school closure in conflict-affected areas and education sector response to COVID-19 (US$0 million original financing; US$21.8 million AF equivalent) 51. Recent attacks by armed groups in six of the 13 regions of the country resulted in the closure of more than 2,400 schools (as of February 2020), depriving 318,155 school-age Burkinabé children of their right to education. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the closure of schools nationwide. The GoBF has developed a strategy with promising interventions to address this new phenomenon of school closure and allow children to continue schooling. The AF will fully support the implementation of the Government’s strategy. Given the evolving nature of the school closure phenomenon in Burkina Faso, the AF will provide just-in-time support in areas of conflict and insecurity and will support the Government’s education sector response to effectively address COVID-19. 52. The Government has engaged in discussions with private firms providing digital solutions to ensure continuity of education in the affected areas. Building on the proposed promising solutions and working closely with the committee established within the MENAPLN to address school closure in the country, the AF will finance (a) the development of digital academic content based on the existing curriculum and fully in line with the pedagogical, cultural, and linguistic specificities of Burkina Faso; (b) the acquisition of tablets and interactive boards; (c) the related teacher training, (d) the provision of school supplies, food for canteens, and salaries for contractual teachers. In addition, the AF will (a) explore the establishment of pop-up schools in secured areas within conflict-affected regions —a flexible model of school building that can rapidly be installed according to local community needs and (b) finance the construction and equipment of approximately 50 classrooms in existing educational establishments accepting students from unsecured areas. The technical committee created in the MENAPLN to tackle the phenomenon of school closure will lead the effective implementation of the proposed activities. An ad hoc committee will be set up within the technical committee with the task of reviewing and validating technical files aimed at ensuring continuity of education following the closure of schools in insecure areas. The AF will provide equipment and supplies to the committee and finance its operating costs. Moreover, the AF will support the necessary COVID-19 response measures through (a) distant learning interventions for continued education during the pandemic including digital content development, equipment for distant learning, and remote training of teachers and education sector actors; (b) health education and hygiene interventions to support students and teachers with improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) practices; and (c) technical assistance as needed. Table 3. Component 1 - AF Interventions Component 1: Expanding equitable access to preschool education in the two poorest regions and secondary education in the five poorest regions Key interventions Status IAI for ECE expansion Scaled up Training of preschool instructors Scaled up Construction of new CEGs and upper secondary schools (lycées) Scaled up Construction of STEM high schools (lycées scientifiques) Scaled up Establishment of a national stem teacher training institute New Scholarship program Scaled up Key education initiatives in areas affected by the ongoing school closure New Education sector response to COVID-19 New Page 23 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Component 2: Improving the quality of teaching and learning (US$13.0 million original financing; US$42.3 million AF equivalent) 53. Component 2 aims at improving the quality of teaching and learning with a focus on (a) curriculum improvement; (b) secondary teacher training; (c) textbook development and distribution; (d) school- based quality initiatives; and (e) expansion of the use and management of assessment and examination systems. Table 4 presents the proposed key interventions under Component 2. Subcomponent 2.1: Curriculum improvement (US$1.2 million equivalent original financing; no AF) 54. All activities under this subcomponent have been completed. Subcomponent 2.2: Improving pre- and in-service teacher training in secondary education (US$4.5 million original financing; US$30.6 million AF equivalent) 55. Building on the achievements of the parent project, this subcomponent will further improve the preservice and in-service secondary school teacher training reforms. Under the AF, the project will support the activities detailed in the following paragraphs. 56. Preservice teacher training. Similar to the parent project, the AF will further support the ongoing teacher training reforms and will scale up its support to the Koudougou Teacher Training School (Ecole Normale Supérieure de Koudougou) and the Science Institute (Institut de Science), the two institutes in the country in charge of teacher training. 57. Establishment of a national STEM Teacher Training Institute (Ecole normale supérieure pour la formation d’enseignants et de pédagogues en sciences). To further promote STEM, the GoBF aims to establish a public-private partnership with an international institution with vast experience in mathematics pedagogy and didactics. The aim of this partnership is mainly to learn from the experience of the international institution and consolidate the foundations of STEM and related cutting edge educational and pedagogical innovations in Burkina Faso’s education system. To complement this effort, under the AF, the project will support the establishment of a national STEM teacher training institute to prepare the next generation of high-quality secondary school teachers in scientific subjects such as mathematics, physics, chemistry, biology, and environmental and earth sciences. An agreement will be signed between the GoBF and this institution to operationalize this partnership. The AF will also support the necessary expertise in the design of preservice programs for teacher professional development. 58. In-service teacher training. Under the AF, the project will support the reform of in-service teacher training provision modalities consisting of the transition from large group sessions to small group sessions for better and more tailored training provision. The project will also support the acquisition of digital tools and equipment to facilitate distance learning. The project will prioritize its support to mathematics and science teachers where the gap is large: it is expected that 90 percent of the existing mathematics and science teachers will receive at least two in-service teacher training sessions during the life of the project. 59. To further address the shortage of teachers and retain experienced teachers in the profession, the AF will support the establishment of a Teacher Preparedness Center in Ouagadougou (Centre de Preparation à l'Agrégation de Ouagadougou). The center will enable a body of well-experienced teachers Page 24 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) to remain in the profession by preparing them be promoted to the rank of associate professors. To this end, the AF will finance the necessary infrastructure and equipment for the establishment of the center as well as the development of programs, technical assistance, and various needs associated with its effective operationalization. Subcomponent 2.3: Increased availability of science equipment, textbooks, and pedagogical materials (US$3.2 million original financing; US$3.9 million AF equivalent) 60. Building on the progress made under the parent project, the AF will further support learning improvement through the expansion of locally produced textbooks to reduce reliance on external publishers, improve the availability of textbooks and other pedagogical materials in schools, and provide adequate laboratory equipment for upper secondary schools with the aim to establish a model for science teaching. 61. In line with the national strategy that promoted the development of locally produced textbooks, the AF will finance (a) the finalization of five sets of textbooks for lower secondary and another five sets for upper secondary; (b) the training of Burkinabe textbook authors; and (c) a technical assistance to the National Center for Textbooks (Centre national des manuels et fournitures scolaires) to strengthen the viability of its business model. Furthermore, the AF will finance science equipment for upper secondary schools based on their SIPs as well as the strengthening of the national STEM high schools. Subcomponent 2.4: Development of school-based quality initiatives (US$0.8 million original financing; US$6.0 million AF equivalent) 62. Under the AF, this subcomponent will further support the existing school-based management committees (SBMCs) - (COGES) and finance the setting up of new ones in newly created schools in the five targeted regions. Each COGES will (a) participate in the development and use of SIPs as a micro-planning tool to create an environment conducive to learning and (b) support pilot incentives for performance improvement in secondary schools, complementing efforts to improve the quality of education provided. These complementing efforts to be articulated in the SIP include the following activities: prevention and response to GBV and sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA), handwashing and related COVID-19 prevention measures, sports, and cultural activities. The AF will further finance a series of training planned to equip COGES members to play their full role. In addition, the AF will support MENAPLN-administered annual school performance competition to reward the 10 most deserving public schools based on predefined specific criteria. Subcomponent 2.5: Assessment of student learning achievement (US$3.3 million original financing; US$1.8 million AF equivalent) 63. Building on the achievements made under the parent project and to ensure continuity, the AF will finance the implementation of standardized tests in core subjects (French, mathematics, and science) at the lower and upper secondary levels, with the aim to provide hands-on and timely feedback for teachers to enable them to improve classroom instruction. These standardized tests will be implemented in consecutive years which will allow student performance to be measured over time. In addition, the AF will support the modernization of the national examination system through enhancing the organization of the lower secondary certificate (Brevet d’etudes du premier cycle) and the Baccalaureate examination Page 25 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) (Baccalaureat). To the end, the AF will continue to finance the technical assistance from the international firm, notably the Consortium International de Développement en Education, engaged under the parent project and consultations and study tours to eventually establish a modern examination system. Table 4. Component 2 - AF Interventions Component 2: Improving the quality of teaching and learning Interventions Status Curriculum improvement Dropped Secondary preservice teacher training Scaled up Secondary in-service teacher training Scaled up Establishment of a national stem teacher training institute New Establishment of a teacher preparedness center (centre de preparation à New l'agrégation) Textbook development and distribution Scaled up School-based quality initiatives through school management committees Scaled up Expansion of the use and management of assessment and examination systems Scaled up Component 3: Contributing to strengthening education institutional capacity at central and decentralized entities (US$7.0 million original financing; US$5.4 million AF equivalent; US$1.3 million counterpart funding) 64. Component 3 aims at strengthening the MENAPLN’s capacity for data management and planning, reinforce school-level management, and support the functioning of the Project Coordination Unit (PCU). Table 5 presents proposed interventions under Component 3. Subcomponent 3.1: Education planning and administrative management (US$1.5 million original financing; US$1.7 million AF equivalent) 65. Building on the progress made under the parent project, the AF will further strengthen capacity for data processing and analysis to generate a statistical yearbook. The AF will finance EMIS development activities for basic and secondary education. At the secondary education level in particular, a specific EMIS module will be developed for efficient human resources (teachers and administrative staff). At the regional level, the AF will also finance training activities and provide equipment aimed at equipping regional structures for the collection and analysis of statistical data as well as the annual production of a regional statistical yearbook. Subcomponent 3.2: Promoting school-based management committees (US$1 million equivalent original financing; no AF) 66. All planned school-based management activities under the proposed AF will be implemented under Subcomponent 2.4. Subcomponent 3.3: Project management and implementation activities (US$4.5 million original financing; US$3.7 million AF equivalent; US$1.3 million counterpart funding) 67. As under the parent project, the AF will continue to strengthen the capacity of the PCU to undertake the tasks required for project implementation. The project will finance operating costs, Page 26 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) including salaries/indemnities of staff and the activities of the PCU as well as capacity building in policy analytics at the ministerial level for more evidence-based decision-making. The AF will also continue to support M&E of the project. Table 5. Component 3 - AF Interventions Component 3: Contributing to strengthening education institutional capacity at central and decentralized entities Interventions Status Promotion of school-based management committees Dropped Education management information system strengthening Scaled up Capacity building on data processing, analysis, and production of a statistical yearbook Scaled up Project management and implementation activities Scaled up Component 4: Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) (US$0 AF) 68. Component 4 is newly added under the proposed AF to allow the provision of just-in-time support during an emergency. 69. A contingent emergency response fund, with a provisional allocation of US$0, will be included under the proposed project in accordance with the World Bank Policy: Investment Project Financing, paragraphs 12 and 13 for projects in Situations of Urgent Need of Assistance or Capacity Constraints. This will allow to provide an immediate response through a rapid reallocation of project proceeds in the event of a natural or man-made disaster or crisis that has caused, or is likely to imminently cause, a major adverse economic and/or social impact. A separate Operations Manual will be prepared for the CERC, detailing streamlined financial management (FM), procurement, safeguards, and other implementation arrangements as necessary. In case of an emergency, this component would be triggered to reallocate funds between components or reallocate funds to new activities to respond to negative impacts on schooling of a potential crisis. Project Beneficiaries 70. The proposed AF will directly benefit an additional 560,000 beneficiaries (comprising 30,000 preschool-age children benefitting from quality ECE provided through IAI, 100,000 school-age children from insecure regions benefitting from continued schooling, 10,000 students from disadvantaged background benefitting from targeted financial support, 8,700 lower and upper secondary students benefitting from increased access to school, 395,000 students benefitting from school-based quality initiatives, around 3,000 students benefitting from textbook acquisition, 8,000 lower and upper secondary teachers and 4,400 supervisors, COGES members, and ministry staff benefitting from capacity improvement initiatives) over the life of the project. At the same time, sector wide institutional strengthening and capacity building for key stakeholders are built into the project to further strengthen its development impact. Gender. 71. Analysis. In Burkina Faso, available data suggest that efforts to keep girls in school have to be expanded and maintained beyond the basic education level. Girls benefit from a slightly higher level of Page 27 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) schooling with a GER of 89.2 percent in primary (compared to 88.4 percent for boys) and 54.1 percent in lower secondary (compared to 41.7 percent for boys). At the upper secondary level, however, the GER for girls represents 19 percent compared to 24.2 percent for boys. Several factors contribute to girls’ unequal access to education including the following: (a) Long distance to school. An inadequate supply of accessible schools especially in the rural areas is a significant obstacle to girls’ education in rural areas, with many secondary schools located far from households. Available data show that parents are reluctant to send their children, particularly girls, to schools located more than 20 km from their homes. This is particularly relevant because of the perceived greater security risks accruing to girls who must travel long distances on isolated roads, which disproportionately affect them. (b) Early marriage. Girls are often withdrawn from school due to marriage or because of early or unwanted pregnancies. Some parents prefer early marriage as a form of insurance against unwanted pregnancies. (c) Lack of resources. Primary education is free, but the subsidies provided by the GoBF are inadequate to cover the costs of good quality education. As a result, schools continue to impose unregulated fees on parents to supplement government transfers. These top-up fees when combined with the cost of textbooks and other teaching materials, as well as the high opportunity costs associated with enrolling a child in education, make primary education unaffordable for many poor families. (d) Household chores. Even when parents decide to send girls to school, they are often withdrawn before the end of the cycle to assist with productive activities to mitigate household poverty. 72. Action. The parent project financed activities to stimulate demand for secondary education through (a) the expansion of fee reduction policies implemented under the Post-Primary Education Project Phase 2 and (b) the provision of subsidies to students to help finance additional costs associated with schooling, which resulted in the reduction of costs to households, especially poor families. About 1,000 selected students, predominantly girls from poor households, benefitted from financial support. Building on these achievements, the AF will further reduce gender disparities through a set of interrelated actions addressing both supply- and demand-side factors. On the supply side, the AF will support the construction of additional new CEGs and upper secondary schools (lycées), targeting geographical areas closer to the residence/villages of beneficiary girls to facilitate their physical access. Each newly constructed school will be expected to have separate latrines for girls and boys. On the demand side, the AF will scale up its scholarship program to provide financial support to an additional 10,000 students, mostly disadvantaged girls from poor households. Moreover, GBV will be addressed through established SBMCs as part of a package of interventions to improve learning conditions in schools. 73. M&E. The Results Framework comprises mechanisms to monitor gender disaggregated data and assess gender impacts. PDO-level indicators will be disaggregated by gender, as relevant. In addition, the Results Framework includes a specific gender sub indicator which will measure the proportion of girls benefitting from the scholarship program who remained in school and survived through their current cycle of education. Page 28 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Change in Implementing Agency 74. The implementing agency remains the same. However, the name of the implementing agency has been changed from Ministry of Basic Education and Literacy (Ministere de l’Education Nationale et de l’Alphabetisation) to Ministry of Basic Education, Literacy, and Promotion of National Languages (Ministere de l’Education Nationale, de l’Alphabetisation et de la Promotion des Langues Nationales) to reflect the current name. III. KEY RISKS 75. The overall risk is rated high due to high political and governance, macroeconomic, and COVID-19 related risks, as well as substantial risks in sector strategies, technical design, and institutional capacity. 76. Political and governance risks are high due to security risks that stem from the sociopolitical unrest in the subregion and ongoing armed attacks in targeted regions which continue to destabilize the education system and the country, leading to continued school closures in affected areas. The World Bank Group will continue to monitor the security situation, remain in close contact with the Government to assess the level of this risk and put in place appropriate mitigation measures. Furthermore, the project design is sufficiently flexible to allow implementation course correction as needed. 77. Macro-economic risks are high mainly due to external vulnerabilities related to exports and commodity price shocks resulting from a longer than expected impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Ensuing increases in security, humanitarian and, if extended beyond one year, COVID-19-related expenditure might jeopardize fiscal discipline. In addition, domestic risks are unfavorable weather, an unstable security and humanitarian situation (hosting about 25,000 refugees from Mali), and the aggravation of the coronavirus health crisis. The agricultural sector remains highly vulnerable to climatic conditions. Terrorist attacks may jeopardize expected investments, especially given their recent multiplication across the country. While the economy will remain vulnerable to a range of shocks which might decelerate growth in 2020, Burkina Faso should continue on a positive trajectory of economic expansion as a result of countercyclical, but prudent fiscal and monetary policies and resilient reforms to counter their negative effects. This assessment is underpinned by positive private investment in the growing gold sector and in the cotton sector under rehabilitation, which will support good mining and agricultural outturns. The Government places high priority on education given that the security situation of the country is highly related to youth unemployment. Close policy dialogue will continue so that sector funding will at least be maintained at current levels. 78. Sector strategies and policies risks are substantial. The Government is implementing its ten-year Basic Education Strategic Development Program (PDSEB, 2012–2021) and has adopted the education sector's response plan to COVID-19. While the PDSEB and COVID-19 response plan are being supported by all the relevant education stakeholders, including the donor community, the level of funding needed continues to be very high compared to the current capacity. Without donor support, it is unlikely that the country will have enough resources to effectively implement the envisioned program and COVID-19 response plan. Consultations were held with all key stakeholders throughout the identification and preparation of the project, and this will continue during implementation. In addition, key roles and responsibilities will be clearly defined for implementing entities. Page 29 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) 79. Technical design risks are substantial. The proposed project is based on clearly identified needs, emerging priorities related to COVID-19 driven school closures, and program complementarity to fill existing gaps in the education sector. The project is designed to respond flexibly to changing needs (including the post-COVID reopening of schools, the provision of educational opportunities to internally displaced populations etc.) considering emerging international best practice contextualized to the country’s needs. Building upon lessons learned from the implementation of the parent project, which has been fully implemented by the Ministry of Education itself, the ministry team has gained extensive experience with the coordination of the project, including the fiduciary, safeguard, and M&E responsibilities. In this context, the ministry will be given the authority and capacity to coordinate all project activities along with the necessary technical assistance to ensure effective project implementation. Moreover, the proposed project is closely coordinated with other development partners to leverage their interventions. 80. Institutional capacity risks. Weak institutional capacity may delay implementation, although this concern is of a lesser degree than what prevailed in the context of previous project implementation. Human resources have been strengthened and the Government is more committed to producing results. Risk mitigation measures are set up that include the provision of expert technical assistance across project components, capacity building measures, close monitoring and sustained implementation support, consultations with stakeholders, and intense community mobilization and sensitization. 81. The other risk category refers to the current high risk related to the COVID-19 global pandemic. While the pandemic is primarily affecting public health, spillover effects are already been observed in the education sector, stemming largely from extended school closures in the country. Despite the low rates of infection among children, school closures are considered as a critical pillar of the broader social distancing measures in place to mitigate the spread of the disease and avoid an acceleration of cases that will put a strain on health services. While schools remain closed, on June 1, 2020, the Government has decided their phased reopening starting with students sitting for standard exams in primary and secondary schools. A comprehensive set of safety, health, and sanitary guidelines have been established to inform the reopening of schools. In addition, project-specific activities are likely to be negatively affected particularly given the uncertainty around the longevity and potential impact of the COVID19 global health crisis. The task team will continue to closely work with the Client to mitigate the negative impacts of COVID-19 through the establishment of alternative remote learning solutions to address COVID-driven school closure. These efforts will continue in close collaboration with education sector development partners to establish effective mitigation measures during the pandemic and to adequately prepare for COVID-19 conscious reopening of schools after the pandemic. Page 30 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Figure 1. Results Chain for Burkina EAQIP AF Page 31 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) IV. APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Economic and Financial Analysis 82. While the economic and financial analysis conducted for the parent project remains valid, it has been updated to reflect the increased financial resources allocated to the project. The full economic and financial analysis conducted for the proposed AF has been appended in Annex 1. The proposed AF is expected to contribute to improving the economic conditions of the population. The existing gap in the education sector in Burkina Faso reveals a great potential for this AF to contribute to poverty reduction. The main benefits from the project are in terms of reducing inequality and creating opportunities for the poor and disadvantaged population. It can also compensate for market failures in education by, for example, providing access for disadvantaged households to afford their day-to-day livelihoods, which undermines the generational opportunities for their offspring. By focusing on gender specific goals and economically disadvantaged regions, the project has additional social benefits, which provide further justification for the types of proposed interventions. Moreover, by increasing access to education, the project is expected to offset some of the demand-side pressures on the education system that stem from a growing population and expected improvements in primary enrollment and completion. 83. The Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) results under the worst and best scenario assumptions show that even under the worst scenario, the project is still economically viable. Under the best scenario, the internal rate of return (IRR) reaches 31.5 percent, the net present value (NPV) of the intervention is US$335.8 million compared with US$109.6 million at the parent project preparation stage, and the benefit-cost ratio as high as 9.3. The sensitivity analysis confirms this project is a good investment and worthy intervention. The monetary return of the project activities is compensated even in the worst economic scenario. The proposed AF is justified economically. B. Technical 84. The appraisal summary developed for the parent project remains largely relevant. The project is grounded in a comprehensive sector analysis and its technical design is premised on international best practices and is consistent with the technical priorities for the country as described in the PNDES and the CPF. The project documentation contains technical notes and various reports prepared by the World Bank, the GoBF, and various donors. Building on the decentralized approach, the project will systematically address issues of access and equity on the basis of need and comparative advantage within the poverty agenda. It also addresses capacity building and is complementary to the Government’s decentralization and deconcentration policy, including community involvement in school management. The project components (increasing access partly through a construction program, quality enhancement through teacher training, curriculum reform, and ECD) were prepared based on technical and economic studies as well as lessons learned during previous interventions and have integrated regional and international norms and practices. Project components will be implemented in line with adequate standards. Innovations such as SBMCs and the SIP, including the proven teaching improvement piloted plan, are supported by sound technical studies, sub regional and international experiences. Moreover, investment and recurrent cost estimates for the project are based on estimates of prevailing market unit costs, with appropriate allowance for inflation. A reasonable level of physical contingencies is also included in the cost estimates. The proposed AF will continue to take on board many of these assets that remain relevant. Page 32 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) C. Financial Management 85. The proposed AF will follow the FM arrangements under the parent project. The budget process will be updated in the administrative, financial, and accounting procedures. The annual budget and work plans for the project will continue to be prepared by the PCU. Following approval by the Review Committee and the World Bank, and before the beginning of the year, the annual budget and related work plans will be recorded in the government FM system, Integrated Circuit of External Financing (Circuit Intégré des Financements Extérieurs). Any changes in the budget and work plans will need to be approved by the Review Committee and accepted by the World Bank. In addition, the Review Committee will (a) discuss and review implementation strategies of the project and (b) monitor and assess the implementation progress and results of the project. 86. The administrative, financial, and accounting procedures manual will be updated before the AF effectiveness. The manual will ensure that adequate internal controls are in place for the preparation, approval and recording of transactions, and the separation of duties. Internal control procedures will be detailed in the FM manual. In addition to the involvement of the internal auditor, national audit institutions, such as General Inspectorate of Finance and Public Treasury Inspectorate, may review project activities periodically. D. Procurement 87. All works, goods, and services will be procured according to the procurement arrangements of the parent project. The changes to the existing procurement arrangements in the parent project are detailed in the following paragraphs. 88. Procurement Regulations. The procurement process will follow the requirements of the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations for Borrowers for Goods, Works, Non-Consulting, and Consulting Services dated July 1, 2016, revised November 2017 and August 2018, and applicable to Investment Project Financing (IPF). 89. Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD). As part of the preparation of the project, the Recipient (with assistance from the World Bank) has prepared the PPSD which describes how procurement activities support project operations for the achievement of PDOs and deliver value for money. The procurement strategy is linked to the project implementation strategy to ensure proper sequencing of the activities. It considers institutional arrangements for procurement; roles and responsibilities; thresholds, procurement methods, and prior review; and the requirements for carrying out procurement. It also includes a detailed assessment and description of the Government’s capacity for carrying out procurement and managing contract implementation, within an acceptable governance structure and accountability framework. Other issues considered include the behaviors, trends, and capabilities of the market (that is, market analysis) to respond to the Procurement Plan. 90. Procurement documents. When approaching the national market, as agreed in the Procurement Plan, the country’s own procurement procedures may be used with the requirements set forth or referred to in Regulations’ paragraphs 5.3 to 5.6 (section V Procurement Provisions) related to the National Procurement Procedures. The Burkina Faso Standard Bidding Documents are not yet found acceptable to be used for National Competitive Bidding; the requirements to make them in compliance with clauses 5.3 Page 33 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) to 5.6 of the Procurement Regulations referenced earlier and other deviations found in the National Procurement Regulations itself have been incorporated in the textual part of the procurement plan. The recruitment of civil servants as individual consultants or as part of the team of consulting firms will abide by the provisions of paragraph 3.23 (d) of the Procurement Regulations. 91. Procurement Plan. The Procurement Plan was prepared and finalized based on the PPSD. It sets out the selection methods to be followed by the Recipient during project implementation in the procurement of goods, works, and non-consulting and consulting services financed by the World Bank. The Procurement Plan, including its updates, will include for each contract (a) a brief description of the activities/ contracts; (b) the selection methods to be applied; (c) the cost estimates; (d) time frame and schedules; (e) the World Bank’s review requirements; and (f) any other relevant procurement information. The Procurement Plan covering the first 18 months of project implementation has been approved by the World Bank. Any updates of the Procurement Plan will be submitted to the World Bank for approval. The Procurement Plan will be updated at least annually or as required to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. 92. Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP). The project will implement STEP, a planning and tracking system, which is mandatory for all IPF projects and would provide data on procurement activities. The details of the procurement activities prepared in the Procurement Plan will be transferred in the STEP system. Initial training on the implementation of STEP system will be provided to the PCU staff involved in the implementation of the project. Table 6. Procurement and Review Thresholds Expenditure Category Contract Value (threshold) Procurement Method Contract Subject to Prior Review US$ US$ 1. Works ≥5,000,000 ICB All <5,000,000 NCB <200,000 Shopping No threshold Direct Contracting 2. Goods ≥1,000,000 ICB All <1,000,000 NCB <100,000 Shopping <500,000 Shopping (vehicles and fuel) No threshold Direct Contracting 3. Consultants firms No threshold QCBS; LCS; FBS All contracts of 200,000 and more <300,000 CQS No threshold IC (AMI) All contract of 4. Individuals IC (at least 3 CVs) 100,000 and more < 100,000 No threshold Single source ≥ 100,000 (selection firms and individuals) Page 34 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Note: All terms of references regardless of the value of the contract are subject to prior review. CQS= Consultant’s Qualification-based Selection; FBS = Selection under a Fixed Budget; ICB = International Competitive Bidding; LCS= Least Cost Selection; NCB = National Competitive Bidding; QCBS = Quality- and Cost- Based Selection. 93. Anticorruption. The Client will ensure that the project is carried out in accordance with the provisions of the Anti-Corruption Guidelines of the World Bank: ‘Guidelines on Prevention and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants,’ dated October 15, 2006, and revised in January 2011 and in July 2016. 94. Procurement risk at the project level. The existing implementing agency of the parent project under the ministry in charge of education will continue to lead the implementation of AF activities. The performance of this agency is Moderately Satisfactory, and the project risk remains Substantial. E. Social (including Safeguards) 95. The AF is expected to have positive social impacts through education provision and skills development to generate an improved labor force more likely to live in better social and economic conditions. Focusing on students with disadvantaged background and girls in rural areas, the project will help increase living standards in the rural areas where the most vulnerable people in Burkina Faso live. The targeting of girls in various components will improve the opportunities for segment of the population that is already very much marginalized in education. The project activities will focus on (a) rural and poverty-stricken urban areas in the five poorest regions; (b) encouraging the enrollment of more girls through such specific actions such as improving physical access to schools (bringing secondary schools near villages and reducing physical distance and security concerns, particularly for girls’ participation), providing running water, and providing separate latrines for girls; (c) providing schools in more locations so that children who move within the country will be able to continue their education; (d) promoting participation of local communities in school management to overcome local barriers to schooling; and (e) providing support for textbooks provision at reduced costs to alleviate the costs incurred by parents. 96. Like the parent project, the AF retains its social and environmental Category B rating. The social risks and impacts of the project are expected to be generally positive, moderate, and low in scale, mostly site specific, and thus easily manageable. Because the AF maintains the same PDO and components as the parent project, no additional safeguards policies will be triggered, and the rating will therefore remain the same. Under the AF, the project will finance the construction of 13 CEGs and eight upper secondary schools (lycees) mainly in localities of the five poorest regions of the country where the demand remains high. In regions affected by the security crisis, such as the North, the Sahel and the East, new schools will be built, as needed, in areas closer to students who are victims of school closure including outside the targeted five poorest regions. Because there will be new activities on sites not yet identified and given that the exact locations of the expected investments are not yet known, the Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) of the parent project has been updated and include specific procedures to be followed to help address procedures for any type of community land acquisition or transaction for the AF project. The RPF was updated in full compliance with the national legal and regulatory framework and the World Bank’s OP/BP 4.12 as a due diligence measure to mitigate potential negative effects of involuntary resettlement operations. The RPF has been reviewed, consulted upon, approved, and disclosed in-country on November 15,2019 and on the World Bank's website on February 19,2020. The RPF will serve as a Page 35 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) guide for the preparation and implementation of a possible Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) that will also be reviewed, consulted upon, and disclosed both in-country and on the World Bank’s website before the launch of any civil works. 97. The social safeguards implementation support mission held in March 2019 rated the project Moderately Satisfactory. The PCU team has no social safeguards specialist, and the mission noticed some delays in the implementation of social safeguards recommendations. No unresolved critical social issues related to site selection and works have been identified at this stage. The mission recommended to accelerate the implementation of previous missions’ recommendations related to the need to disseminate the project GRM and effectively monitor and document the management of the grievances and follow-up given to the griever within a reasonable time by the project team. 98. Institutional strengthening. A social development specialist to cover social safeguards in the PCU will be recruited not later than two months after the effectiveness. In addition, the World Bank will provide further technical guidance to the PCU through proactive regular implementation support missions and field-based technical capacity strengthening of the environmental and social safeguards specialists. 99. Gender. The project will include activities to reduce gender disparities in the education sector. The parent project financed activities to stimulate demand for secondary education, including the expansion of fee reduction policies implemented and the reduction of associated costs to households, especially poor families, through the provision of subsidies to students to help finance additional costs associated with schooling. About 1,000 selected students, predominantly girls from poor households, benefitted from financial support to cover additional schooling costs. As under the parent project, the AF will provide targeted support to an additional 10,000 students, mostly disadvantaged girls from poor households, to benefit from the scholarship program. 100. GBV. The GBV and SEA assessment was conducted by the World Bank and has identified the GBV/SEA risk level for the project to be Substantial. The planned construction of new schools in the regions affected by the security crisis, such as the North, the Sahel, and the East, would involve labor influx both with workers from or outside the subproject areas, which increases the risk of GBV and SEA in the project communities. Other risk factors include, but are not limited to, the project being in hard-to- supervise areas, lack of GBV training for education sector personnel, lack of protocols and referral pathways for care of students affected by GBV, and significantly more male teachers than female teachers. As a result, the AF has identified key mitigation measures to address potential GBV/SEA. Mitigation measures will be recorded into an action plan and regularly updated during project implementation. The mitigation measures will be fully reflected in the project Environmental and Social Management Plans (ESMPs) and in contractors’ proposals and site-specific ESMPs. GBV mitigation measures’ costs will be considered in the contracts and the procurement documents. Codes of conduct will also be developed and included in bidding documents. The code of conduct will be signed and explained to workers and signage will be displayed in the contractor’s main facilities. The project will also finance awareness-raising activities and training of students, teachers, parents, and administrative staff on the prevention and mitigation of GBV/SEA risks. The GBV prevention and response services available in the project area will be mapped out and a survivor-centered response protocol will be established to ensure that the project’s GBV incidents, including those taking place in schools, are properly reported and survivors have received timely access to the available services (health, psychosocial, legal support, and so on). The parent project’s GRM to be strengthened will include provisions to safely and ethically register complaints and properly Page 36 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) address GBV allegations through specific reporting mechanisms of GBV/SEA incidents during project implementation while engaging all key relevant stakeholders (PCU, engineers, contractors, and so on). Community sensitizations will take place so that communities are aware of prevention and response measures. Furthermore, the AF will address any potential GBV at the school level through the engagement of SBMCs and effective implementation of SIPs as part of a package of interventions to improve learning conditions in schools, including ensuring there are separate quality WASH facilities for women and men/boys and girls. 101. Citizen engagement. Under the current context of threat and insecurity, citizen engagement is fundamental to ensure the success of the project. Recent attacks by armed groups in six of the 13 regions of the country resulted in the closure of more than 2,400 schools (as of February 2020), depriving 318,155 school-age Burkinabé children of their right to education. Schools continue to be the primary target of attacks and threats by non-state armed groups. To address this new phenomenon of school closure, the GoBF has developed a strategy with promising interventions to allow children to continue their education in affected areas. The AF will fully support the implementation of the Government’s strategy. Citizen engagement will therefore form an integral part of the implementation of the AF to ensure an effective dialogue between citizens and government officials from the education sector. 102. A comprehensive stakeholder engagement strategy has been developed to effectively engage citizens and local communities of targeted project areas on the identification, selection, and implementation of the planned AF interventions. The PCU will develop a citizen engagement plan to ensure that (a) citizen consultation and participation process is inclusive, transparent, and responsive to the needs of the communities and (b) citizens are effectively engaged in project implementation in a way that strengthens their ownership and translate their responsibility for the achievement of PDOs. The PCU will ensure that the citizen engagement plan is properly implemented, and that project-affected people’s points of view and concerns are fully addressed. The involvement and consultation of relevant stakeholders such as teachers, students, pedagogical advisers, inspectors, teacher/parent association members, and SBMC members will be maintained throughout project implementation to completion. The client was also advised to regularly consult relevant stakeholders during the preparation of Environmental and Social Impact Assessments, ESMPs, and RAPs for each planned construction. Furthermore, during the implementation of the AF, the client will carry out beneficiary satisfaction surveys in the selected sites to evaluate public satisfaction with citizen engagement measures. 103. GRM. The parent project’s GRM will be further strengthened and will be set up to allow stakeholders and all interested parties to bring up any concern regarding project implementation issues to the PCU with the aim of finding solutions. The GRM will incorporate specific provisions to allow safe and ethical registration, documentation, and management of complaints including GBV/SEA complaints. A specific reporting mechanism of GBV response protocol will be established. F. Environment (including Safeguards) 104. All the necessary requirements to process an AF have been met and overall safeguards rating from latest ISR was Satisfactory. This proposed AF is rated Category B (Partial Assessment) and no additional safeguards policies will be triggered2 (Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01; Physical Cultural 2 Under the list of proposed changes in the portal, the box on change in safeguards policies triggered is ticked to Page 37 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Resources OP/BP 4.11; Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12). Component 1 (expanding equitable access to preschool education in the two poorest regions and secondary education in the five poorest regions) and its Subcomponents 1.1 and 1.2 will finance a set of interrelated activities: (a) construction of additional new CEGs and upper secondary schools (lycées); (b) construction of STEM high schools (lycées scientifiques); (c) establishment of a national STEM teacher training institute. 105. The potential environmental risks and negative impacts are expected to be moderate, mostly site specific, and easily manageable. The expected potential impacts will be dust, noise, and particularly waste management and occupational health and safety (OHS) issues during the civil works. Positive impacts will consist of plantations on the new sites. However, because there will be new activities on sites not yet identified, the Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) and the RPF have been updated, reviewed, approved, consulted upon and disclosed publicly in-country on November 25, 2019 and on the World Bank’s website on February 19, 2020. Related to OP/BP 4.11, the construction will involve excavations and could lead to chance finds. However, the triggering of this policy does not entail the preparation of a specific safeguard instrument: a chapter has been included in the ESMF to provide guidance in case physical cultural resources are discovered. 106. Institutional arrangements. In Burkina Faso, the Ministry of Environment, Green Economy, and Climate Change is responsible for setting policy guidelines on environmental issues and ensuring compliance with national environmental standards. It has different departments among which the National Environmental Agency (Bureau National des Evaluations Environnementales) in charge of safeguards compliance of all projects in the country. The unit is qualified to review and approve environmental impact assessments and ensure the monitoring of required environmental mitigation measures. However, it faces some challenges in terms of the number of qualified staff, lack of field technical equipment and vehicles for field visits, and shortage of funds to finance the oversight of the implementation of the OHS plans management. A capacity-building program will be necessary to fill this gap. In addition, the client has several years of experience in applying and implementing World Bank- funded projects and is therefore familiar with the World Bank’s environmental safeguard policy requirements. 107. The AF will incorporate appropriate measures of climate resilience in the design of school and classroom construction activities. The planned new schools will be built to be resilient to climate risk. Key climate adaptation and mitigation co-benefits have also been identified for the planned civil works, including the utilization of solar energy in the newly built schools and classrooms to be more energy efficient. The project will help the Government to properly select locations of school construction sites taking into account any hazard risks caused by the climate change and include other mitigation measures as needed. 108. The overall environmental risk rating remains Moderate. reflect the revisions and updates made on the ESMF and RPF in line with proposed AF interventions. Page 38 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) V. WORLD BANK GRIEVANCE REDRESS 109. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World Bank (WB) supported project may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance redress mechanisms or the WB’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed in order to address project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the WB’s independent Inspection Panel which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of WB non-compliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints may be submitted at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank's attention, and Bank Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank’s corporate Grievance Redress Service (GRS), please visit http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/products-and-services/grievance-redress-service. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank Inspection Panel, please visit www.inspectionpanel.org. Page 39 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) VI SUMMARY TABLE OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Implementing Agency ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ VII DETAILED CHANGE(S) IMPLEMENTING AGENCY Implementing Agency Name Type Action Ministere de l'Education Nationale et de Marked for Deletion l'Alphabetisation Ministere de l’Education Nationale, de Line New l’Alphabetisation et de la Promotion des Ministry/Ministerial Langues Nationales Department Page 40 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE Current PDO The project development objective is to support the Government of Burkina Faso to increase access to pre-school education in the two poorest regions, secondary education in the five poorest regions and to improve teaching and learning. The components in supportof these objectives have been designed to complement other activities financed by the Government and other development partners. Proposed New PDO The project development objective is to support the Government of Burkina Faso to: (a) increase access to preschool education in the two poorest regions, secondary education in the five poorest regions, and (b) improve teaching and learning. COMPONENTS Current Component Name Current Cost Action Proposed Component Proposed Cost (US$, (US$, millions) Name millions) Component 1: Expanding 30.00 Component 1: 30.00 equitable access to pre- Expanding equitable school education in the two access to pre-school poorest regions and education in the two secondary education in the poorest regions and five poorest regions secondary education in the five poorest regions Component 2: Improving 13.00 Component 2: 13.00 the quality of teaching and Improving the quality of learning teaching and learning Component 3: Contributing 8.00 Component 3: 8.00 to strengthening education Contributing to institutional capacity at strengthening education central and decentralized institutional capacity at entities central and decentralized entities TOTAL 51.00 51.00 LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Ln/Cr/Tf Status Original Closing Current Proposed Proposed Deadline Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications IDA-D0330 Effective 31-Jul-2019 31-Jul-2020 31-Jul-2024 30-Nov-2024 Page 41 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Expected Disbursements (in US$) DISBURSTBL Fiscal Year Annual Cumulative 2015 0.00 0.00 2016 7,281,175.43 7,281,175.43 2017 14,568,698.45 21,849,873.88 2018 21,756,847.49 43,606,721.37 2019 14,897,400.00 58,504,121.37 2020 14,896,700.00 73,400,821.37 2021 24,464,726.00 97,865,547.37 2022 22,953,326.00 120,818,873.37 2023 21,526,026.63 142,344,900.00 2024 8,655,100.00 151,000,000.00 SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Latest ISR Rating Current Rating Political and Governance ⚫ High ⚫ High Macroeconomic ⚫ High ⚫ High Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Sustainability Fiduciary ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Environment and Social ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Moderate Stakeholders ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Other ⚫ High Overall ⚫ Substantial ⚫ High Safguard_Table COMPLIANCE Page 42 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered Yes Safeguard Policies Triggered Current Proposed Environmental Assessment OP/BP Yes Yes 4.01 Performance Standards for Private No No Sector Activities OP/BP 4.03 Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 No No Forests OP/BP 4.36 No No Pest Management OP 4.09 No No Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP Yes Yes 4.11 Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 No No Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 Yes Yes Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 No No Projects on International Waterways No No OP/BP 7.50 Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 No No LEGAL COVENANTS2 LEGAL COVENANTS – Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Sections and Description Not later than two (2) months after the Effective Date, the environmental specialist and the social development specialist, referred to in sub-paragraph (b) of this paragraph shall have been recruited and appointed. Conditions Type Description Effectiveness The Recipient has updated: (i) the Project Implementation Manual; and (ii) the Page 43 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Manual of Financial Management, both in form and substance satisfactory to the Association. Type Description Disbursement Under Category (2) (i) for sub-grants under Part 2.4 (b) unless a list of the beneficiary schools, acceptable to the Association, has been provided to the Association found to comply with the criteria stipulated in the Project Implementation Manual and (ii) for subsidies for schooling cost under Part 1.2.b (ii) unless a list of the students from poor households and the amounts of subsidies for schooling costs, acceptable to the Association, has been provided to the Association found to comply with the criteria stipulated in the Project Implementation Manual. Page 44 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) VIII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING Results Framework COUNTRY: Burkina Faso RESULT_NO_PDO Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing Project Development Objective(s) The project development objective is to support the Government of Burkina Faso to: (a) increase access to preschool education in the two poorest regions, secondary education in the five poorest regions, and (b) improve teaching and learning. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Project Development Objective Indicators Increase in the grade promotion rate in lower secondary education disaggregated by gender in the 5 targeted regions. 59.10 66.00 (Percentage) Increase in girls' grade promotion rate in lower secondary 59.70 66.00 education in the 5 targeted regions. (Percentage) Increase in gross intake rate in the first grade of lower secondary education in the 5 targeted regions disaggregated by gender 41.10 62.00 (Percentage) Increase in girls' gross intake rate in the first grade of lower 39.20 61.00 secondary education in the 5 targeted regions. (Percentage) Increase in gross intake rate in the first grade of upper secondary education in the 5 targeted regions (Percentage) 8.70 14.00 Increase in girls' gross intake rate in the first grade of upper 4.10 12.00 secondary education in the 5 targeted regions (Percentage) Page 45 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ PD O Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Number of additional students enrolled in early childhood education using Interactive Audio Instruction programs in the 2 0.00 15,000.00 targeted regions and Ouagadougou (Number) Direct project beneficiaries (Number) 0.00 83,494.00 Female beneficiaries (Percentage) 0.00 50.00 PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Component 1: Expanding equitable access to pre-school education in the two poorest regions and secondary education in the five poorest regions Number of pre-school class facilitators enrolled in the short-track 0.00 300.00 training successfully certified by the end of the project. (Number) Percent % of Lower secondary schools in the targeted five poorest regions have agreed School Improvement Plans 0.00 90.00 (Percentage) Percent % Lower secondary schools in the targeted five poorest 0.00 90.00 regions have functional SBMCs (Percentage) Component 2: Improving the quality of teaching and learning Percent % teachers have been coached in situ by supervisors by 5.00 60.00 the end of the project. (Percentage) Percent % Lower and upper secondary teachers have participated in in-service training by the end of the project 0.00 60.00 (Percentage) Page 46 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_ IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Number of teachers and staff trained on the using of the new 0.00 50,000.00 guides. (Number) Number of teaching guides developed and piloted with project support for the three education levels (ECD, primary and 0.00 56.00 secondary education). (Number) Number of additional classrooms built in lower and upper 0.00 339.00 secondary levels resulting from project interventions. (Number) Number of Students receiving subsidies to support the costs of their school fees disaggregated by gender in the five targeted 0.00 1,000.00 regions (Number) Percentage of Students receiving subsidies to support the costs of their school fees in the five targeted regions are girls. 0.00 50.00 (Percentage) Percentage increase in gross enrollment rate in lower and upper secondary education in the five poorest regions disaggregated by 40.20 63.00 gender (Percentage) Percentage increase in the gross enrollment rate in lower secondary education in the five poorest regions disaggregated 37.60 63.00 by gender (Percentage) Percentage increase in girls' gross enrollment rate in lower secondary education in the five poorest regions (Percentage) 35.10 43.00 Percentage increase in gross enrollment rate in Upper 9.20 20.00 secondary education in the five poorest regions (Percentage) Percentage increase in girls' gross enrollment rate in Upper 5.80 12.00 secondary education in the five poorest regions (Percentage) IO Table SPACE Page 47 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators Mapped Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection This indicator is aimed at capturing the percent of students in lower secondary education who Increase in the grade promotion rate in succeed regardless of age DGESS MESS/MENA lower secondary education disaggregated as a resultof project MESS/MEN Statistics Year Annual by gender in the 5 targeted regions. interventions. Data will be A Book disaggregated by gender to capture the percentage of girls who performed well at this level This indicator ia aimed at Increase in girls' grade promotion rate capturing progress in Annual MESS/MENA Statistical survey DGESS / MENAPLN in lower secondary education in the 5 closing the gender Year Book targeted regions. attainment rate in lower secondary education. The indicator will help capture data to show Increase in gross intake rate in the first progress made in the gross DGESS MESS/MENA grade of lower secondary education in the intake rate at the lower MESS/MEN Statistics Year Annual 5 targeted regions disaggregated by secondary education. This A Book gender indicator is disaggregated by gender. Breakdown from the Increase in girls' gross intake rate in indicator above: This MESS/MENA Annual Statistical survey DGESS/MENAPLN the first grade of lower secondary indicator is aimed at Statistics Year education in the 5 targeted regions. capturing progress in Book closing the gender Page 48 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) attainment rate in lower secondary education. The indicator will help capture data to show Increase in gross intake rate in the progress made in the gross DGESS MESS/MENA first grade of upper secondary intake rate at the upper MESS/MEN Annual Year Book education in the 5 targeted regions secondary education. This A indicator is disaggregated by gender. Breakdown from the indicator above: This Increase in girls' gross intake rate in indicator is aimed at DGESS MESS / MENA the first grade of upper secondary capturing progress in MESS/MEN Annual Year Book education in the 5 targeted regions closing the gender A attainment rate in lower secondary education. Number of additional students enrolled in DGESS MENA early childhood education using The MESS/MEN Statistics Year Annual Interactive Audio Instruction programs in A Book the 2 targeted regions and Ouagadougou Direct beneficiaries are people or groups who directly derive benefits from an intervention (i.e., children who benefit from DGESS MESS/MENA an immunization program; Direct project beneficiaries MESS/MEN Statistics Year Annual families that have a new A Book piped water connection). Please note that this indicator requires supplemental information. Supplemental Value: Page 49 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Female beneficiaries (percentage). Based on the assessment and definition of direct project beneficiaries, specify what proportion of the direct project beneficiaries are female. This indicator is calculated as a percentage. Based on the assessment and definition of direct project beneficiaries, Female beneficiaries specify what percentage of the beneficiaries are female. ME PDO Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators Mapped Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection The indicator will capture data to show the number Number of pre-school class facilitators of pre-school class MENA enrolled in the short-track training facilitators enrolled in the DGESS Statistics Year Annual successfully certified by the end of the short-track program that MENA Book project. have been successfully certified. The target is 300 instructors. Percent % of Lower secondary schools in This indicator aims at DGESS MESS/MENA the targeted five poorest regions have capturing data related to MESS/MEN Statistics Year Annual agreed School Improvement Plans the number of lower A Book Page 50 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) secondary schools having an agreed and functional school improvement plan (SIP) resulting from project interventions. This indicator aims at capturing data related to the number of lower Percent % Lower secondary schools in the DGESS MESS /MENA secondary schools having a targeted five poorest regions have MESS/MEN Statistics Year Annual functional school based functional SBMCs A Book management committee (SBMC) resulting from project interventions. This indicator aims at capturing data related to Percent % teachers have been coached in DGESS MESS/ MENA the number of teachers situ by supervisors by the end of the MESS Statistics Year Annual who received in-situ project. /MENA Book coaching support on a regularly basis. The indicator aims at capturing data related to the number of teachers Percent % Lower and upper secondary DGESS MESS / MENA who received in-service teachers have participated in in-service MESS/MEN Statistics Year Annual training and who continue training by the end of the project A Book to continuously update their skills to the new methods. The indicator aims to capture quantitative data DGESS MESS/MENA Number of teachers and staff trained on to show evidence that the MESS/MEN Statistics Year Annual the using of the new guides. project has contributed to A Book training x numbers of Page 51 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) teachersin mastering the new guides. The indicator aims to capture qualitative data to inform the extent to which Number of teaching guides developed and the project financed DGESS MESS /MENA piloted with project support for the three curricula reform covers MESS/MEN Statistics Year Annual education levels (ECD, primary and teaching programs A Book secondary education). including teachers’ training modules and learning instruments. The indicator is aimed at capturing data related to the number of additional classrooms constructed at Number of additional classrooms built in DGESS MESS/MENA the secondary level lower and upper secondary levels MESS/MEN Statistics Year Annual through the Bank-funded resulting from project interventions. A Book project. This will be disaggregated by private and public secondary schools. The indicator helps capture data relating to the number of students Number of Students receiving subsidies to including girls receiving DGESS MESS/MENA support the costs of their school fees subsidies to fund their MESS/MEN Statistics Year Annual disaggregated by gender in the five school fees due to project A Book targeted regions interventions. Target for the two first years is 1,000 students of which fifty percent would be girls. Page 52 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Breakdown from the Percentage of Students receiving indicator above: The sub- DGESS MESS/MENA subsidies to support the costs of their indicator helps capture MESS/MEN Statistics Year Annual school fees in the five targeted data relating to the gender, A Book regions are girls. notably percentage of girls receiving the subsidies. The indicator helps in capturing data to show evidence that the number of students enrolled in the secondary education level is increasing each year Percentage increase in gross enrollment resulting from project DGESS MESS/MENA rate in lower and upper secondary interventions. It will be MESS/MEN Statistics Year Annual education in the five poorest regions disaggregated into lower A Book disaggregated by gender and upper levels and by gender. The indicator will be monitored through the four separate disaggregated indicators by levels. Percentage increase in the gross DGESS enrollment rate in lower secondary Statistics MESS/MEN Annual education in the five poorest regions Yearbook A disaggregated by gender Percentage increase in girls' gross DGESS MESS/MENA enrollment rate in lower secondary MESS/MEN Statistics Year Annual education in the five poorest regions A Book Percentage increase in gross DGESS Statistics enrollment rate in Upper secondary MESS/MEN Annual Yearbook education in the five poorest regions A Page 53 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Percentage increase in girls' gross DGESS Statistics enrollment rate in Upper secondary MESS/MEN Annual Yearbook education in the five poorest regions A ME IO Table SPACE Page 54 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Annex 1: Economic and Financial Analysis Country: BURKINA FASO Education Quality and Access Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) 1. The economic and financial analysis of this project consists of two sections. The first section provides the justification for investment in education, particularly secondary education, and the benefits that can be expected to result from such an investment. Specifically, this section will explore whether there are signals for education in the Burkina Faso’s labor market by estimating the rate of return to education. Further, it also investigates the relationship between secondary education and the labor market—demonstrating how focusing on secondary education could be important in meeting the demand for skilled labor force. The second section of this annex covers the CBA of proposed project interventions followed by a sensitivity and sustainability analysis. 2. Investing in secondary education is particularly important in the context of Burkina Faso. A large proportion of the labor force in Burkina Faso is unskilled. Figure 1.1 shows that 73 percent of Burkina Faso’s total workforce has no education and only 27.2 percent is educated. Only 12 percent have some primary education, 10 percent have some lower secondary education, 3 percent have some upper secondary education, and 1 percent have some higher education. When the distribution of the working age population is disaggregated by gender and area of residence, the following are observed: (a) there are relatively more women (80 percent) than men (63 percent) who have not received a formal education and (b) rural areas have higher percentage of working age people (82 percent) with no education compared to urban areas (39 percent). If the current trend continues, it is highly likely that the demand for secondary education will overwhelm capacity at the secondary level. The Government will, therefore, need to be prepared to accommodate the demand. Figure 1.1. Distribution of the Working Population by Level of Education in Terms of Gender and Area (%) 80 82 73 63 39 2224 18 1210 13 9 8 10 10 4 2 5 7 3 1 2 1 1 0.1 Age 15-64 Male Female Urban Rural National Gender Area No education Some Primary Some lower secondary Some upper secondary Source: Authors’ estimations based on Continuous Multisectoral Survey (Enquête Multisectorielle Continue (EMC)) 2014. Page 55 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) 3. A Mincerian wage regression was estimated, in which the coefficients showed that, similar to results from many other developing countries, an additional year of education yields about 11.7 percent higher earnings. In addition, the regression estimates for Burkina Faso show increasing returns to education as the level of education increases, even after controlling for other determinants. Individuals with a higher level of education receive better economic returns and the rate of return on education is higher for higher levels of education, confirming that education is a key determinant of livelihoods. At the national level, the rate of return ranges from 56 percent for individuals with some primary education to 177 percent for individuals with higher education, relative to individuals with no education (figure 1.2). The analysis shows that women have higher rates of returns than men in all levels of education, suggesting that there are fewer educated women than men in the labor force. For example, the rate of returns for women with some lower secondary education is 123 percent as compared to 80 percent for men with the same level of education. Therefore, like in many countries around the world, the labor market in Burkina Faso strongly signals for investment in education and there is a clear economic and social rationale for investment in education. Particularly relevant to the project’s focus, is the finding that secondary education offers much higher returns than primary education. In general, the difference in earnings by level of education may arise from two sources: (a) a shortage of educated manpower to make the labor market competitive and (b) the competencies and skills content by levels of education. However, in Burkina Faso, the vast majority of the workforce is not educated and the high return to post-primary education is mainly due to limited access to post-primary education. Figure 1.2. Rate of Returns on Education Level by Gender and Area 218% 197% 177% 164% 153% 138% 123% 127% 128% 109% 96% 89% 80% 83% 56% 62% 44% 36% 30% 25% National Male Female Urban Rural Gender Area Some Primary Some lower secondary Some upper secondary Higher education Source: Authors’ estimations based on EMC 2014. 4. The type of employment the labor force is engaged in is associated with level of educational attainment. In fact, educated individuals are more likely to be employed in the formal sector to obtain higher returns to education. For example, relatively high returns to secondary education imply that secondary education graduates are more likely to be involved in wage employment, compared to primary education graduates for instance. An estimate from the 2014 EMC shows that 40 percent of the Page 56 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) population with some upper secondary education secured wage employment, and the corresponding figures for primary and no education were 10 percent and 2 percent, respectively (figure 1.3 A). More educated individuals also tend to work in the services sector because it offers better economic benefits and formal employment (figure 1.3 B). The figure shows that about 10 percent of the working age population with no education work in the services sector whereas, 50 percent of the labor force with some upper secondary education work in the service sector. This implies that investing in education, in general, and particularly in secondary education, can be important for wage employment and poverty reduction. Investing in secondary education can be a way of developing wage employment and thus contributing to reducing the incidence of poverty. Figure 1.3. Employment Status and Sector of Employment by Education Attainment for Working Age Population (ages 15–64) A Some higher education 68 24 7 Some upper secondary 40 16 44 Some lower secondary 13 18 69 Some Primary 10 25 65 No education 2 13 85 Wage Non-wage houshold enterprises Agriculture B Some higher education 7 11 81 Some upper secondary 44 6 50 Some lower secondary 69 8 23 Some Primary 65 11 24 No education 85 6 10 Agriculture Industry Services Source: Authors’ estimations based on EMC 2014. 5. In terms of investment on education, the labor market in Burkina Faso signals higher returns and better employment opportunities for higher level of skills. While education has direct and indirect Page 57 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) economic and social impacts, this section only focuses on the economic effects. As such the efficiency of the education sector is measured in terms of the value that education offers though earnings and employment opportunities. For example, the average estimated earnings increase from CFAF 30,471 (about US$93) for the working age population with no formal education to CFAF 119,475 (about US$215) for those with some post-secondary education level, which is more than three times the income of an individual with no education (figure 1.4). Figure 1.4. Monthly Earning (CFAF), by Gender, Sector, and Education Level 140,000 Average earning (in CFAF) 119,475 120,000 100,000 80,000 72,305 60,000 52,629 50,364 45,425 45,817 48,673 39,202 40,000 30,471 34,641 30,390 23,363 26,713 20,000 - Female Urban Rural Industry No education Average Some upper secondary Some higher education Male Agriculture Services Some Primary Some lower secondary Education level Gender Area Sector Source: Authors’ estimations based on EMC 2014. Cost-Benefit Analysis 6. The CBA is employed to estimate the benefits brought by the AF project and the associated cost to assess the economic feasibility. The analysis is tailored based on component-specific intervention designing, beneficiaries targeting, and the benefit quantifying. The CBA only captures the economic benefit streams of the project beneficiaries realized in terms of lifetime earnings because of better learning and the intermediate benefits of the interventions. Semi-tangible benefits are benefits that are mostly associated with the quality component of the project and they are estimated based on standard benefit findings from similar interventions in other countries. Overall, the CBA uses two different approaches of benefit stream estimates—access and quality. 7. The first approach of the CBA focus on access interventions of the project. This section captures the benefits associated with construction of basic education-level classrooms. It is worthwhile to mention Page 58 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) that some of the investments affect both the quality and quantity aspects of the beneficiaries’ outcomes and should not be assumed as double counting the benefits. 8. The second approach focuses on the impact of interventions on quality improvement. This examines both the direct and indirect impact of interventions. The impact of direct interventions looks at student learning improvement through the provision of learning materials and learning assessments while the indirect channels of student learning improvement include, for instance, improving teaching and learning conditions and improving school-based management and capacity-building program. 9. The cost-benefit of access and quality are calculated separately, then combined to obtain the overall cost-benefit estimates, which are weighted by the cost allocated to each category. Assumptions for Cost-Benefit Analysis 10. To derive the CBA, the model makes several assumptions about the project activities, the associated costs, and benefits. The following presents the model assumption, NPV, and internal rate of return (IRR) for the project. 11. The key assumptions used are as follows:3 • Survival/retention. Although the project is expected to increase survival rates, the current survival rates are grade 6: 91 percent, grade 9: 84 percent, and grade 12: 74 percent. • Rates. A 12 percent discount rate4 is used and for the sensitivity analysis a higher discount rate (15 percent) is considered under different scenarios, the inflation rate assumed for the project lifetime is 5 percent, while the maintenance cost assumed for the lifetime of the construction is 7.5 percent. The 2018 official exchange rate used is CFAF 555.7 per US$1. • Earnings. A wage rate is estimated for different levels of education and age, using the 2014 EMC. The earning rate remains the same over the benefit time span. • Employment. The probability of employment remains the same and it is estimated by level of education using the 2014 EMC. • Lifespan of the project. The beneficiaries from the access component of the project engage in the labor market for a period of 40 years and for 15 years for those benefiting from quality. The schools provide services for 40 years in the base scenario. 3 The CBA considers the steps and assumptions used at the parent project preparation stage and applies relevant adjustments. Key changes to the assumptions for the CBA include earnings at parent project preparation stage were estimated using Integrated Household Living Standard Survey (Enquête Intégrale sur les Conditions de Vie des Ménages (EICVM)) 2009/2010 while the 2014 EMC data are used to estimate earnings for the CBA for the AF. 4 A 12 percent discount rate is chosen based on the actual interbank lending rate for the baseline scenario and for the sensitivity analysis a higher discount rate (15 percent) is considered under different scenarios while a 10 percent discount rate was used for the CBA of the parent project preparation. Page 59 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) • Probability of adequate implementation. The probability of project implementation used is 63 percent, which is an average of 40 interventions in Latin America.5 For the sensitivity analysis, the probability of adequate project implementation used is 73 percent for the high scenario and 53 percent for the low scenario. 12. Table 1.1 presents the CBA results for the base scenario which is the optimal level that the project could achieve based on the strictest conservative assumptions. Both the IRR and the NPV of costs and benefits of both access- and quality-related interventions of the project show that the project is economically viable. The present value of the overall project benefits is estimated to be US$584.4 million compared with US$173.8 million at parent project preparation stage, while the present value of costs is estimated to be US$101.0 million. The corresponding NPV of the intervention benefits is US$335.8 million compared with US$109.6 million at the parent project preparation stage. The IRR associated with this NPV is 29.6 percent, which is higher than the IRR (19.6 percent) at the parent project preparation stage. Although some benefits are not fully quantifiable to measure the total potential benefit of the project, the NPV of the quantifiable benefits are larger than the NPV costs, thereby strongly supporting investment on the project. Table 1.1. IRR and NPV (US$, millions) Access Quality Total IRR (%) 20.8 33.6 29.6 Discounted cost (present value of costs) 70.6 30.4 101.0 Overall project cost 52.5 23.4 76.0 Maintained/incremental costs 18.1 0.0 18.1 Present value of incremental benefits 410.4 173.9 584.4 NPV 190.2 145.6 335.8 Benefit/cost ratio 5.8 5.7 5.8 Source: Authors’ estimations based on EMC 2014. Sensitivity Analysis 13. The sensitivity analysis was conducted by changing key assumptions from the already defined assumptions used in the base scenario. Given that the above IRR of the base scenario is generated based on strict conservative assumptions on the benefits, the sensitivity analysis shows changes in the access and quality of education that could result from implementations of the project under the worst and best scenario assumptions. To define these scenarios, certain assumptions on the benefits and costs associated with the sustainability of facilities and other key parameters are relaxed. Table 1.2 summarizes the key assumptions which have been relaxed. The CBA was reestimated by changing the main parameters. Table 1.2. Summary of the Key Assumptions Considered for the Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Parameter Worst Scenario Baseline Best Scenario Project implementation Probability of implementation of the project (%) 53 63 73 Lifespan of the building 30 40 45 5Schiefelbein, E., L. Wolff, and P. Schiefelbein. 1998. Cost-effectiveness of Education Policies in Latin America: A Survey of Expert Opinion. Inter-American Development Bank. Page 60 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Sensitivity Parameter Worst Scenario Baseline Best Scenario Lifespan of quality 10 15 20 Maintenance rate (%) 10 7.5 5 Discount rate (%) 15 12 10 Education system (survival rate) Primary (%) 91 91 96 Lower secondary (%) 84 84 89 Upper secondary (%) 74 74 79 Labor market performance Probability of employment Primary (%) 94 94 94 Lower secondary (%) 77 77 77 Upper secondary (%) 76 76 76 14. Low scenario. Under this scenario, which reflects the most pessimistic case, some key parameters are altered from the base scenario assumptions. As indicated in table 1.2, the class size and survival rate decreased. In addition, the lifespan of the building and equipment was reduced, and the associated maintenance cost was increased to 10 percent. The discount rate was also assumed to be higher than in the baseline at 15 percent. Furthermore, 53 percent is used as the probability of adequate implementation of the intervention, based on both technical and political considerations. The results for the low scenario are presented in table 1.3. 15. High scenario. Under this scenario, which reflects the best possible conditions for the project, class size, survival rate, and completion rate were assumed to be higher than under base scenario assumptions. In addition, the likelihood of employment and incremental earning both increased (see table 1.2). The discount rate was also assumed to be slightly lower at 10 percent. The results of the high scenario are presented in table 1.4. 16. The CBA results under the worst and best scenario assumptions show that even under the worst scenario, the project is still economically viable . Under the best scenario, the IRR reaches 31.5 percent, the NPV of the overall project is estimated to be US$723.9 million, and the benefit-cost ratio as high as 9.3. The sensitivity analysis confirms this project is a good investment and worthy intervention. The monetary return of the project activities is compensated even in the worst economic scenario. Table 1.3. NPV and IRR Based on the Worst Scenario Access Quality Total IRR (%) 19.5 29.1 26.1 Discounted cost (present value of costs) (US$, millions) 61.1 27.2 88.3 O/w project cost 46.7 21.6 68.2 Maintained/incremental costs 14.4 0.0 14.4 Present value of incremental benefits (US$, millions) 186.4 75.0 261.4 NPV (US$, millions) 45.5 49.5 95.0 Benefit/cost ratio 3.1 2.8 2.9 Source: Authors’ estimations based on EMC 2014. Table 1.4 NPV and IRR Based on the Best Scenario Access Quality Total Page 61 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) IRR (%) 22.0 35.8 31.5 Discounted cost (present value of costs) (US$, millions) 74.4 32.8 107.3 O/w project cost 57.1 24.8 82.0 Maintained/incremental costs 17.3 0.0 17.3 Present value of incremental benefits (US$, millions) 691.4 305.3 996.7 NPV (US$, millions) 449.0 274.8 723.9 Benefit/cost ratio 9.3 9.3 9.3 Source: Authors’ estimations based on EMC 2014. Financial Sustainability of the Project 17. Total public spending on education in Burkina Faso was 4.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2015 and accounted for 18 percent of all government expenditure. Currently US$1,412 million has been earmarked for state educational expenditures between 2015 and 2018. Of this expenditure, 95.53 percent is expected to come from government expenditure and 4.47 percent from this project’s disbursements. 18. Public educational spending has been mostly directed toward the primary sector. Of recent educational spending, 66.52 percent has been directed toward primary education, with the remaining 33.47 percent being directed toward secondary and above (based on 2014 figures). Spending is thus uncharacteristically high at the primary level and very low at the secondary level. The EAQIP counteracts this trend, directing about 90 percent of expenditures toward the secondary level. This is believed to be the right approach based on recent enrollment trends in Burkina Faso. 19. Beyond the life of the project, there are effects on permanent (or semi-permanent) costs in the educational sector. Most importantly, additional infrastructure has an expected useful life considerably exceeding the time horizon of the project. However, the marginal increase in permanent costs is relatively minor in comparison to total expenditures expected over the life of the project. If it is assumed that permanent costs relating to infrastructure are as high as 5 percent of installation costs, this will amount to only US$18.1 million current value as stated in table 1.1. This is equivalent to about 4 percent of state educational spending per year. 20. The project is not expected to negatively affect the fiscal situation of the Government, as financial sustainability of the project is based primarily on the Government’s sustained support to education. The main aim of this project is to expand the existing initiatives by focusing on the most disadvantaged population. Most interventions seek to improve access and quality and strengthen governance and resilience of the education system, with minor implication on the Government’s fiscal space. Therefore, this project can be sustained without further pressure on government budget. Page 62 of 63 The World Bank Burkina Faso - Education Access and Quality Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Annex 2: Summary of Estimated Project Costs Country: BURKINA FASO Education Quality and Access Improvement Project Additional Financing (P170452) Project Components Original Additional Counterpart Total Financing Financing Funding Financing (US$ millions) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Component 1: Expanding equitable access 30 52.3 0.0 82.3 to preschool education in the two poorest regions and secondary education in the five poorest regions Component 2: Improving the quality of 13 42.3 0.0 55.3 teaching and learning Component 3: Contributing to 8 5.4 1.3 14.7 strengthening education institutional capacity at central and decentralized entities Component 4: Contingent emergency 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 response component Total project financing 51 100.0 1.3 152.3 Page 63 of 63