Technical support to the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs of Greece (MoLSA) and the Greek Manpower Employment Organization (OAED) GREECE: IMPROVING THE DESIGN AND DELIVERY OF ALMPs – Phase II SYNTHESIS OF PROGRESS, LESSONS LEARNED SO FAR, AND SUGGESTED NEXT STEPS OF ALMP REFORM PROCESS April 22, 2021 Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012 World Bank Report No. AUS0002178 Funded by the European Union via the Structural Reform Support Programme and in cooperation with the European Commission's Directorate-General for Structural Reform Support This report is a product of the Social Protection and Jobs Unit at the World Bank. It was prepared in the context of the Technical Assistance for Improving the Design and Delivery of ALMPs – Phase II, funded by the European Union via the Structural Reform Support Program and in cooperation with the European Commission's DG REFORM. The report corresponds to Output A.3: Technical note synthesizing progress and identifying lessons learnd so far on the ALMP reform process, under Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019. The report was written by Stefanie Brodmann (Task Team Leader), Gordon Betcherman, Polly Jones, Moira McKerracher, Ioanna Pantelaiou, Bill Shaw, Mauro Testaverde and Giannis Tzimas. The team is grateful to the teams at the Greek Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (MoLSA) and the Greek Manpower Employment Organization (OAED) for the close cooperation throughout the technical assistance project. The team also appreciates the support of Dorina Giouroukou, coordinator of the technical assistance for DG REFORM, and managerial support from Cem Mete, Goran Tinjic and Nikolaos Schmidt at the World Bank, as well as the helpful comments on the report from Christian Bodewig and Maddalena Honorati. This report is a product of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretation and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank, the European Commission, or the Government. 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 6 Επιτελική Σύνοψη...................................................................................................................... 20 Part A: Introduction ................................................................................................................. 36 Part B: Reform Objectives and Progress ................................................................................. 38 Part C: Recommendations for Management of ALMPs ......................................................... 47 1 Understanding OAED’s customers and labor demand ............................................................................ 49 1.1 Analyzing labor market conditions and needs ........................................................................................ 49 1.2 Understanding jobseeker characteristics .................................................................................................. 52 1.3 Other sources of labor market intelligence.............................................................................................. 53 2 Engagement with employers ......................................................................................................................... 55 2.1. Employer segmentation ............................................................................................................................. 55 2.2. Outreach to firms........................................................................................................................................ 56 3 Engagement with jobseekers ......................................................................................................................... 58 3.1 Outreach and communication ................................................................................................................... 58 3.2 Registration and intake ................................................................................................................................ 59 3.3 Counseling..................................................................................................................................................... 59 3.3.1 Profiling ...................................................................................................................................................... 59 3.3.2 Assessment................................................................................................................................................. 60 3.3.3 Referrals...................................................................................................................................................... 60 3.4 Data management ........................................................................................................................................ 62 3.5 Operational aspects for engagement with jobseekers ............................................................................ 62 4 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E).............................................................................................................. 63 4.1 M&E framework .......................................................................................................................................... 63 4.2 Program logic................................................................................................................................................ 63 4.3 Indicators and responsibilities for data collection .................................................................................. 64 4.4 Monitoring .................................................................................................................................................... 65 4.5 Evaluation ..................................................................................................................................................... 65 4.5.1 Process evaluation..................................................................................................................................... 65 4.5.2 Impact evaluation...................................................................................................................................... 66 4.6 Decision-making using performance information.................................................................................. 66 5 Information Technology ................................................................................................................................ 67 Part D: Active Labor Market Programs (ALMPs) ................................................................... 68 3 1. Identification of appropriate ALMPs and matching ................................................................................ 68 1.1. Current and potential new ALMPs .......................................................................................................... 68 1.2 Matching ALMPs against target groups ................................................................................................... 70 1.3 Matching ALMPs against target areas ...................................................................................................... 72 1.4 Pilot programming for three different labor market models ................................................................ 75 2. Considerations in implementing training programs ................................................................................. 78 2.1 Good practice and the impact of COVID-19 on training programs .................................................. 78 2.2 New approaches to delivery ....................................................................................................................... 80 2.3 Using incentives to drive performance ..................................................................................................... 81 3. Outsourcing of services ............................................................................................................................... 81 Part E: Proposed action plan for roll-out of reform ................................................................. 84 Part F: Annexes........................................................................................................................ 87 Annex I: List of World Bank Outputs ............................................................................................................ 88 Annex II: Elefsina results .................................................................................................................................. 90 Annex III: Status/progress as of end 2020 .................................................................................................... 93 Annex IV: IT System ......................................................................................................................................... 94 Annex V: ALMPs: upgrading and preparation of new programs .............................................................. 97 1. Wage subsidies ................................................................................................................................................ 97 1.1 National wage subsidy programs ............................................................................................................... 97 1.2 Seasonal wage subsidies and benefits with training ................................................................................ 98 2. Training..........................................................................................................................................................101 2.1 Work experience programs ......................................................................................................................101 2.2 Employer-led programs ............................................................................................................................105 2.3 Vocational, including short-term vocational programs .......................................................................108 4 List of Tables Table 1: Comparison of post-program employment and unemployment outcomes .............................. 43 Table 2: Firm segmentation and suggested outreach approaches .............................................................. 57 Table 3: Monitoring indicators for wage subsidies ....................................................................................... 64 Table 4: Proposed ALMPs by profiling category .......................................................................................... 70 Table AII-1: Profile and size of target group (beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries)................................ 90 Table AII-2: Balance Table ............................................................................................................................... 91 Table AII-3: Probit estimates of the effect of participation on employment in October 2020 ............ 92 Table AII-4: Probit estimates of the effect of participation on being in the unemployment registry .. 92 Table of Figures Figure 1: ALMP Reform Theory of Change ..................................................................................................47 Figure 2: ALMP framework..............................................................................................................................48 Figure 3: 3 main steps for an effective employer engagement strategy .....................................................55 Figure 4: The delivery chain for engagement with jobseekers ....................................................................58 Figure 5: Results chain for wage subsidies .....................................................................................................64 Figure 6: Mix of active labor market programs and services for Phase 2. ................................................71 Figure 7: Programs that could be offered horizontally nationwide ............................................................72 Figure 8: Additional programs that would fit in several labor markets across Greece ...........................74 Figure 9: General approach for deciding which programs should be trialed ...........................................75 Figure 10: Proposed ALMPs by type of area .................................................................................................77 Table of Boxes Box 1: Greece’s Labor Market Diagnosis Mechanism .................................................................................39 Box 2: Achievements and challenges of the Elefsina pilot ..........................................................................41 Box 3: The National Plan "Greece 2.0" and the Pissarides committee plan ............................................46 Box 4: Ireland’s Regional Skills Fora...............................................................................................................58 Box 5: The MoLSA’s training programs .........................................................................................................68 Box 6: General principles for employment training .....................................................................................78 Box 7: Impact of COVID-19 on training requirements ..............................................................................79 Box 8: Permanent Seasonal Worker Program - Croatia ...............................................................................99 Box 9: Competence with Systems – Austria ............................................................................................... 100 Box 10: UK’s Sector Based Work Academy Program (SBWAP) ............................................................ 102 Box 11: Operational Preparation for Collective Employment (POEC) program in France .............. 106 Box 12: Matching the skills of individuals to jobs in demand ................................................................ 111 Box 13: Rapid retraining to address immediate demand and re-deploy displaced workers ................ 112 Box 14: Examples of short training courses for displaced workers ........................................................ 112 5 Executive Summary The Greek Government recognizes the importance of an active and productive working age population, particularly in light of Greece’s high unemployment rate (one of the highest in the EU). Between October 2013 and October 2020, the unemployment rate fell by over 10 percentage points to 16.4 percent. Despite this significant improvement before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Greece continues to face severe labor market stress. In 2019, over 70 percent of unemployed had been out of work for 12 months or more. The pervasiveness of long-term unemployment means that many jobseekers have suffered a protracted lack of contact with the world of work. They thus risk losing relevant skills and work habits. For this reason, establishing an effective system of active labor market programs (ALMPs) to underpin a sustainable labor market recovery with a readily employable workforce is among the Greek Government’s highest priorities. The Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (MoLSA) identified the reforms required for a more effective ALMP system in Greece in the Strategic Framework for the Redesign of ALMPs.1 The Framework set the broad directions for a shift from the intermittent availability of ALMPs with open application by potential eligible participants, towards what the authorities term the “open framework”, consistent with European practices (i.e., referrals by job counselors from a menu of programs continuously available).2 The Framework also included specific improvements in public works, wage subsidy, training, youth and entrepreneurship programs. In view of the difficulty to increase ALMP spending to bring it in line with European levels given severe fiscal constraints, priority was placed on the most vulnerable groups, including older long-term unemployed with low skills, youth and beneficiaries of the Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI). The Framework identified the specific measures needed to realize these reforms, such as hiring additional counselors,3 as well as the constraints posed by high levels of unemployment and low domestic demand in Greece. There was a need to pilot the approach before applying it more broadly. In summary the new ALMP model envisioned the following main reforms: • Continuous availability of a menu of upgraded ALMPs informed by timely information on labor market conditions; • Strengthened provision and role of counseling in referring the unemployed to ALMPs; • Strengthened monitoring and evaluation; and • Supporting development of the information systems underpinning the operation of ALMPs, provision of counseling services, and program monitoring and evaluation. 1 Full text available at: http://www.opengov.gr/minlab/wp- content/uploads/downloads/2018/04/stratigiko_plaisio.pdf (in Greek). 2 So far, ALMPs in Greece have been implemented through single calls that produce all placements at a single point in time for the year, each effective for certain target groups (regularly distinguished by age), and with different objectives and implementation arrangements. 3 That is because the “open framework” deviates from an open call to applications by introducing the role of the counselor who is responsible for referring the unemployed to the ALMPs that best suit her/him. 6 ALMP Reform Progress The Government decided to begin to test implementation of these reforms with a small-scale pilot in three municipalities covered by the employment office (KPA2) of Elefsina. The choice of location was guided by several criteria including: the capacity of the local economy to provide jobs, accessibility, previous participation of municipalities and businesses in ALMPs, an unemployment rate in line with the national average and influenced relatively little by seasonal factors, the capacity of the local KPA2 office, and the presence of training institutes. The pilot targeted those aged 45 and over registered unemployed for at least 6 months, given the importance of addressing long-term detachment from the labor market in Greece. The Elefsina pilot began in November 2018 and has been completed. Available data on the results of the Elefsina pilot show that the take-up of the pilot offer was approximately 26 percent. In spite of delays in the arrival of additional counselors and in design and business process decisions for training, out of the 3617 individuals eligible to partake in the pilot (as of September 2019), through March 2020, 948 individuals underwent the profiling exercise, met with a counselor and agreed on an Individual Action Plan (IAP). This translates to a take-up rate of around 26 percent. Among the individuals who met a counselor, through October 2020, 900 were referred to training and 80 entered wage subsidy positions. Out of those referred to training, 840 received a training voucher and 781 activated them and became trainees. The number of training referrals changed only slightly between March and October 2020 (893 vs. 900), whereas about half of the wage subsidy positions were offered after March 2020, likely attributed to the response to COVID-19. Through the Elefsina pilot, the first pilot completed end to end4, progress was made on some reforms, while challenges appeared for others, generating lessons to inform further testing and implementation of the new ALMP model. The pilot met the objective to strengthen the role of counseling and profiling went well. On the objective to upgrade ALMP design, significant progress was made to streamline front-end and payment procedures for wage subsidies. Insufficient information system support prevented other measures to simplify procedures, but most critically, vacancies were scarce without an explicit strategy to work with employers. New training programs were offered and incorporated several innovations including assessment tools, recognition of prior learning, a flexible design for basic skills training and the selection of specialties according to local labor market needs. However, the level of training allowances provided a strong incentive to participate, whether it was the best option for increasing employability or not and training costs were high. There was a shortfall on the objective of making a menu of ALMPs available on a continuous basis. The pilot consisted almost entirely of training, which was unavailable for the first 8 months. Kinofelis (public works) was eliminated from the pilot menu and wage subsidy placements were few. Progress on the objective of strengthening ALMP monitoring and evaluation was limited as extracting data from the OAED core information system (OPS) proved challenging. Availability of training data sourced from a different platform, which was developed for the pilot, was better. 4Two pilots were implemented in 2017. One tested the application of the profiling instrument and successfully covered slightly over 10,000 registered unemployed. The second pilot intended to test and evaluate profiling as well as placement in the approporiate ALMP among a target group of about 1500 registered unemployed between 18-29 years of age in the municipality of Kallithea (in Attica). There were serious difficulties putting in place a menu of ALMPs for referrals. Only 154 unemployed completed the process up to the second interview with the counsellor during which the IAP was drafted or updated, a small share of the initial target of 1500 participants. 7 Ex-post analysis of the Elefsina pilot suggests that employment results, while modest are positive. Descriptive analysis shows that although most of the pilot target group (unemployed aged 45 and older and registered for at least 6 months at OAED) did not integrate into the labor market, program participants were more likely than non-participants to have found a job. Moreover, even after controlling for individual characteristics using propensity score matching, pilot participants still have more favorable employment outcomes. Having had an individual action plan increased the likelihood of being employed in October 2020 by roughly 3 percentage points and reduced by 5-6 percentage points the likelihood of being in the OAED unemployment registry. Part B of this report summarizes the progress and lessons learned from the ALMP reform process to date in the Elefsina pilot. Next stage of ALMP reforms Notwithstanding some achievements in Elefsina, and considering that in Greece, as in other countries, it takes time to improve ALMPs and the public employment services, even more so given the COVID-19 pandemic, the reforms are not complete. In order to advance on the ALMP reform agenda, the government decided in early 2019 on a two-pronged strategy: (i) to undertake a second round of pilots on a larger scale and in more diverse labor market conditions, economic structures and geographical locations, along with (ii) nationwide efforts to strengthen counseling, intensify engagement and cooperation with employers, improve the utilization of labor market information, and enhance monitoring and evaluation. However, decisions on the reform were delayed by the July 2019 elections and then by the COVID-19 pandemic. Should no additional delays arise, the second phase of the reform is expected to begin later in 2021. Following the second-round pilots and their evaluation, the ALMP reform is expected to be rolled-out in all employment offices across the country (see timeline in Annex III). The ALMP reform can be anchored in a theory of change shown in Figure ES-1 below, illustrating the situation motivating the need for reform, the interventions, outputs and outcomes of the Elefsina pilot, and the reform interventions and expected outcomes that lay ahead. The need for ALMP reform in Greece is driven by various factors including the pervasiveness of high unemployment and the identified gaps of the Greek system relative to European practices. Following the guidelines set out in the Strategic Framework for the Redesign of ALMPs, the Elefsina pilot and its underlying interventions were implemented as a first step towards a more effective ALMP system. The implementation of pilot activities not only led to a set of important outputs, but also revealed the strengths and weaknesses of the first phase of the reform and provided lessons to inform its subsequent stages. The expected outcomes are mapped according to the time required for them to be achieved. Short-term outcomes, including those generated in the Elefsina pilot, are already in place or expected to be observable soon, as the relevant actions are currently being implemented nationwide. The intermediate outcomes are expected to be achieved after the implementation of the second-round pilots, which will be applied in different regional labor markets and for different target groups. The national roll-out of the reform aims to generate the longer-term desired outcomes; these outcomes will take the country closer to the achievement of the vision of the ALMP reform i.e. better employment results for ALMP participants. 8 Figure ES-1: ALMP Reform Theory of Change 9 In order to help address some of the remaining challenges and to inform the subsequent stages of the reform, Parts C and D of the report focus on the unfinished agenda to be pursued in the next round of pilots and full roll-out of the reform. Priorities include: (i) measures to strengthen a set of key processes, information and policies which are required to underpin the design and implementation of successful ALMPs going forward; (ii) broadening the menu of ALMPs in areas of interest to the Greek government and further improving wage subsidies and training, the main programs included in the Elefsina pilot; and (iii) additional considerations to keep in mind for implementation of further reforms, including those related to COVID-19. The next round of pilots is likely to overlap with the implementation of Greece’s plan for utilization of the significant resources which will be available as part of the EU New Generation initiative. The suggested measures outlined in Parts C (Strengthening the Framework for the Next Stage of the ALMP Reform) and D (Proposed ALMPs for next stage of ALMP Reform) are aligned with the plan. The report concludes with a suggested action plan of next steps (Part E). Summary of Part C: Strengthening the Framework for Next Stage of ALMP Reform Among other lessons, the Elefsina pilot showed that the priorities of the remaining reform agenda includes several key measures to strengthen a framework encompassing 5 aspects critical for successful ALMPs: a thorough understanding of OAED’s clientele - both jobseekers and employers - as well as labor marked demand, engagement with both employers and jobseekers, aspects related to monitoring and evaluation of programs, and information technology (see Figure ES-2). The sections that follow summarize the proposed measures to strengthen them going forward, including for more diverse locations, labor markets, and target groups, than was the case in the Elefsina pilot. Figure ES-2: ALMP framework 1. Understanding OAED’s customers and labor market demand A detailed and disaggregated labor demand analysis is critical for the design and management of ALMPs. Data on hirings, separations and terms of employment is available in the information system (ERGANI) at the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (MoLSA), and more disaggregated data by sector and occupation is available through the Diagnostic Mechanism of the National Institute of Labour and Human Resources (EIEAD). Analysis of this data on a regular basis, whether undertaken in-house or through collaboration with EIEAD, could be supplemented by employer surveys and consultations, which for example could provide information on hiring plans and specific skills needs. Further analysis is required to support special labor markets such as the ones in transition (where mines or plants that account for a large share of employment close) and those with a high degree of seasonal activity. For the former, information on new vacancies in neighboring regions and in regions where similar mines or plants are still active could be useful. For the latter, useful information includes an analysis of the seasonality of labor demand, the collection of qualitative information through local labor market surveys and consultations with key stakeholders, and identifying sectors, occupations and neighboring regions with off-season job opportunities. A profile of jobseeker characteristics is essential to design and implement programs that meet the needs of the unemployed. The basic data required includes information on gender, age group, length of unemployment, education, occupation, work-seeking status (jobseekers versus non-jobseekers), and receipt of unemployment and Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) benefits. These can be analyzed in terms of disaggregated, relational data (e.g. registered unemployed by gender and age group) and profiles of specific jobseeker categories (e.g. female unemployed). As with labor demand data, OAED’s focus on particular regions may require additional data. In regions facing large increases in unemployment, information on workers anticipated to be laid off should be obtained from firms shutting down or downsizing. OAED could consider collecting additional information from clients at registration in seasonal labor markets, for example plans for offseason employment and interest in training. Other sources of information on labor markets are available. CEDEFOP’s European skills forecasting model provides quantitative projections of trends in employment. EIEAD’s Diagnostic Mechanism provides information on employment, other job characteristics (e.g. wages), and trends in economic sectors, occupations and qualifications at both national and regional levels, along with forecasts of employment for professions in each region of the country. Various stakeholders have undertaken skills anticipation exercises to understand employment trends and to identify future skills needs. Business and trade unions can provide important labor market information through more formal institutions, such as skills councils. The monitoring of labor market outcomes for program participants can be an indirect source of information. And new sources of real-time labor market information, such as postings on online job portals, can complement conventional labor market data sources. 2. Engagement with employers Strong partnerships with employers are critical to gain information on available vacancies and to ensure that services are demand driven. Firms should be provided with tailored material on ALMPs that is short, accessible, and presents the key messages that matter to them. An employer leaflet, for example, could be designed to explain how OAED can help and what employers can do to boost their business and support the local community. In addition, more specific material will be needed for the second phase of the reform, explaining how the selected interventions work and how an employer can qualify. Although coordination between employer-facing staff at all levels in OAED is essential throughout this effort, division of responsibilities is important as well. OAED’s Key Account Unit could focus on contacting large employers in the target regions, while the Heads of the local employment offices (KPA2) and employer counselors could reach out to local smaller firms and local employer networks. Key steps recommended for OAED to strengthen employer outreach include: (i) set clear goals and objectives; (ii) strengthen coordination between the Key Account Unit and KPA2s; (iii) establish and communicate monitoring indicators and reporting arrangements upfront; (iv) identify and prioritize potential hiring firms within OAED’s registry and determine how they should be approached; (vi) prepare promotional and guidance material; and (vii) conduct training for staff to explain the approach and implementation plans. The introduction of skills councils at the regional or local level can help, where employers and officials from the education and training system can cooperate to define and meet skills needs. 3. Engagement with jobseekers Engagement with jobseekers includes outreach and communication, registration and in- take, counseling, and monitoring: • Outreach and communication. Information about programs and delivery processes, as well as eligibility requirements, should be made available to the target population to encourage uptake of services. For the ALMP reform, the information provided could emphasize that the goal of OAED is helping clients obtain employment, and could clearly explain the factors determining referrals and access to programs (profile category, the results of assessment tools, etc.) and the rights and responsibilities of participants (mutual obligations framework). OAED’s review of the Greek mutual obligations framework, which is lenient by OECD standards on job search monitoring, availability for work, and suitability of work, should be completed and the changes formalized before the reform extension begins, so that they can be reflected in communications to jobseekers. • Registration and in-take. In areas facing mass layoffs due to structural changes, services (including profiling) should also be extended to those at risk of redundancy even if not yet registered as unemployed. Access to services and programs should be based on OAED’s segmentation of jobseekers into five groups depending on the probability of obtaining a job. However, OAED should intervene as quickly as possible to address youth unemployment and support workers at risk of mass redundancy. If the supply of potential participants exceeds program availability, other criteria may need to be used in addition to the profile category (like long-term unemployed and the results of assessments). OAED could consider institutionalizing a committee within the local employment office to make the final decision on participation in training programs. • Counseling and referrals. Counselors could go beyond the profiling questionnaire to assess the jobseeker’s skills needs, to evaluate suitability for a training specialty, to judge the jobseekers’ commitment and any barriers to take up of an ALMP, and to provide local market information. A discussion of mutual obligations, as occurs now for wage subsidy referrals, could be extended to all job seekers. Referral options could be developed for those with obstacles to employment (Category 5) that require services not provided by OAED. In order to manage the provision of counseling services depending on the take-up rate, OAED may consider giving priority for counseling to groups more distant from the labor market. • Monitoring. The counselor should follow up on post-referral actions of jobseekers (e.g. voucher activation, class attendance, results of employer interviews) and monitor compliance with mutual obligation requirements, such as job search. A post-ALMP participation interview should become a standard part of counseling procedures. Several issues are important for OAED’s engagement with jobseekers for the next stage of reforms. Will the reform extension cover all registered unemployed or certain target groups? That decision will affect workload planning. Key messages and main channels to communicate with jobseekers (group information sessions, telephone calls and OAED’s website worked well in the Elefsina pilot) need to be determined. The target group should be able to easily access and complete the profiling questionnaire, and obtain an appointment with a counselor. Assessment tools need to be designed and guidance provided on eligibility determinations and referrals. And a stronger monitoring of registered unemployed would help to ensure active job search. 4. Monitoring and evaluation Strong monitoring and evaluation arrangements for the ALMP reform extension are critical to track implementation and to inform the future ALMP system. The objectives of the reform extension and each ALMP could be formalized through a results chain, including inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes and long- term impact. The indicators to be used to track progress in each program and for the overall reform extension, and targets for the reform, should be set. Evaluations may include process evaluations to assess the design and implementation of the program, and impact evaluations to assess the causal effect of the program. 5. Information Technology OAED could consider modifying its digital ecosystems/platforms in line with the new ALMP reforms. High-level recommendations for the ALMP reform extension, based on the experience in the Elefsina pilot, include establishing a reliable IT infrastructure, including the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system, before launching the new ALMPs; upgrading OAED’s core management information system (called OPS) and the information system underpinning the pilot training program (DRTP MIS); completing all necessary interoperability features of OAED’s OPS and other information systems during the program’s early stages; supplying the counseling IT infrastructure with labor market information and intelligence via the instrument developed from the Diagnostic Mechanism by EIEAD; and identifying reform features not supported by OAED’s central IT infrastructure during the design phase of the ALMPs. Summary of Part D: Proposed ALMPs for next stage of ALMP Reform OAED could offer a portfolio of programs across all regions, as well as programs that are differentiated to meet the needs of particular regions. Programs and services that could be offered across regions include (Figure ES-3): intermediation and matching of jobseekers to vacancies; new job search preparation programs (offered online and in group sessions); career and vocational guidance; support networks to meet the needs of women, who face particular barriers to entering or re-entering the labor market; basic skills assessment and basic skills training; digital skills training through online classes; national wage subsidy programs; entrepreneurship support; and public works. OAED is also considering the offer of differentiated programs to areas in transition, areas with high seasonal employment, and urban areas with high unemployment (Figure ES-4). OAED could consider replacing the current system of multiple wage subsidy programs, with different target groups and parameters, with a continuously open program. Such a program would adjust the level of subsidy depending on how far the worker is from the labor market and take into account labor market conditions in setting parameters and numbers to be subsidized. This approach would simplify administration, increase predictability for employers and workers, and improve effectiveness. Other improvements could include increasing engagement with employers, relaxing conditions on employer eligibility (particularly limiting the no-layoff condition), expanding the types of jobs (e.g., part-time jobs) eligible for subsidy programs, offering subsidies for converting temporary or fixed-term contracts to indefinite ones, streamlining the payment and audit process (e.g. through electronic verification), and combining training and wage subsidies. All of these reform options could increase take-up, which is a challenge in the Greek labor market characterized by high unemployment. Figure ES-3: Programs that could be offered horizontally nationwide Figure ES-4 Additional programs that would fit in several labor markets across Greece For seasonal labor markets, OAED already made provision in 2019 for a program to provide either employment or upskilling during the offseason. OAED should evaluate the success of the 2019 call and build on the lessons from that experience. Short modular training programs could enable seasonal workers to top up their skills and gain credit for them. Rapid training programs could build on the skills of tourism workers and enable them to switch to other occupations during their down time, or switch occupations all together until the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism sector abates. Work experience and vocational training have important benefits but require effective administration. Work experience programs have not yet been introduced by OAED as a stand-alone option, but they are seen by employers as low risk and requiring minimal bureaucracy; they provide a useful foothold in the labor market for jobseekers lacking recent work experience, and enable jobseekers to develop their skills in a realistic environment. The effectiveness of OAED’s work-based training programs, which were piloted in Elefsina but not yet mainstreamed across the organization, could be improved in various ways: (i) require a maximum rather than mandatory length for work placements, to encourage employers to make a job offer during the placement; (ii) consider paying jobseekers not receiving benefits a small allowance; (iii) specify IT requirements, monitoring indicators and reporting systems upfront; (iv) review participating employers to ensure they offer quality internships related to both work-based learning and employment prospects; (v) sign a joint agreement with employers and beneficiaries setting out the responsibilities of all parties; (vi) monitor results for employers and beneficiaries; (vii) consider requiring a job interview guarantee and ensure employers provide a reference; (viii) develop a guide to help employers provide a useful experience for jobseekers; and (ix) develop new business processes for collecting and posting positions, employer outreach and eligibility conditions, and for filling positions. Close involvement of employers in training programs can improve their alignment with the demand for workers and skills. Employer-led training programs tend to involve employers in defining the content of training and participating in its delivery. Employers, training institutions and participants often work together to create a training plan, and employers often commit to interview and sometimes to hire a proportion of trainees. The structure of OAED employer-led training programs was defined in the first phase of ALMP reform, although they were not carried out. While the design rules should be reviewed to see if they are still fit for purpose, further efforts could focus on generating information, collaboration with stakeholders, and implementation. A detailed assessment of labor and skills demand could be conducted at the 4-digit level of classification, combined with consultations with employers to inform training needs. Partnerships should be forged with employers and their representative organizations, e.g. industry federations and chambers of commerce. Identified hiring sectors and occupations could be mapped to firms and segmented as per the Employer Engagement Strategy. Digital literacy training modules could be developed, the availability of content on line should be increased, and training materials made available to both the unemployed and those at risk of redundancy. The skills recognition tool that is proposed to be used in OAED’s refugee pilot project could be adapted for mainstream work. Finally, overall procedures could be streamlined and consistency improved across the training program portfolio. Analysis of the capacity to deliver is required before implementing new training programs. OAED will want to consider its capacity, including training facilities; trainer expertise, experience and availability; curricula, learning and assessment materials; and certification options. In addition to OAED’s capacity issues, good practice suggests that decentralized training provision, delivered by a wide range of education providers, enhances opportunities for tailored provision and practical training orientated towards labor market needs. OAED should consider other stakeholders too, for example chambers of commerce, regional and municipal authorities and large employers. More information is needed on public and private education and training providers in target areas, and OAED should conduct a mapping of its own capacity and that of providers in targeted areas. The quality of outsourced training programs could be improved by auditing training providers to measure the quality of delivery and compliance (with upfront establishment of monitoring indicators), supported by rewards for good outcomes. And OAED should consider introducing a new funding formula that rewards private training providers on the basis of employment outcomes achieved. ALMP Reform Implementation Considerations and COVID-19 Potential Challenges OAED operates under more severe budget constraints than many other European PESs, while at the same time faces significant capacity limitations to deliver the variety of services required by its diverse customer base. Based on that, OAED may want to consider implementing alternative approaches to service delivery – i.e. outsourcing. Learning from other countries with experience of outsourcing service delivery, OAED could explore partnerships with other public sector agencies as well as the possibility of contracting out the provision of services to groups that require specialist interventions. In the next phase of the reform, OAED also could consider the outsourcing of services to the private sector, non-profit-making bodies and NGOs, to improve service delivery and respond to the needs of diverse groups in the labor market. Finally, it is important to consider the challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has affected labor markets in OECD countries differently. In turn, different OECD countries responded differently to the pandemic shock through their policy choices. In Greece, the pandemic has had an important economic impact (GDP decreased by 14 percent in the second quarter of 2020) and various consequent effects on all aspects of economic activity.5 According to a recent analysis of the short-run labor market impacts of the first wave of the pandemic and lockdown, Greece’s job retention approach successfully mitigated the possibility of large-scale unemployment. However, the consequences of the lockdown were manifested in other ways, specifically in terms of job creation. 6,7 As the pandemic is accelerating technological and structural changes, countries’ strategies will need to shift toward proactive policies that enhance employment possibilities for unemployed and otherwise vulnerable workers. Moreover, successful policy approaches will need to be well suited for enabling job creation once conditions are in place for a restart, so that the pool of workers without jobs now does not become a pool of long-term unemployed workers down the road. On top of that, given the nature of this crisis, models for managing labor market shocks will need to offer extended support where the shock persists or reoccurs. In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, OAED has undertaken several initiatives to provide various services to both jobseekers and employers remotely. Regardless of the form of service delivery, and before the private sector can generate enough jobs in the aftermath of COVID, the mix of employment programs 5 European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Enhanced Surveillance Report for Greece, September 2020 available at: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/ip134_en.pdf 6 Betcherman et al (2020), “Reacting Quickly and Protecting Jobs: The Short -Term Impacts of the Covid-19 Lockdown on the Greek Labor Market”, Covid Economics 43: 95–136. 7 Similar to Greece, some other European countries have adopted measures to avoid layoffs. This stands in contrast to some other countries, where unemployment rose quickly as policies emphasized income support more than job protection. provided by OAED needs to be further adjusted to better meet the needs of its clients. On the one hand, the composition of the unemployed population served by the OAED might have altered, while on the other, private sector job creation has shrunk and would need to be encouraged through publicly offered programs. In addition, since OAED is planning to put a stronger emphasis on training going forward, the report also provides considerations for the implementation of training programs, including good practices and new approaches on delivery stemming from the impacts of COVID. Since monitoring labor market trends is considered of utmost importance especially during this period, OAED should consider engaging with employers and other stakeholders on a regular basis to monitor developments that are not yet observable in the data. Suggested Roadmap for Roll-out of Reform Following on the preceding analysis, actions for the reform extension are summarized in Table ES-1 below. Those classified as immediate could be rolled-out nationwide in the short-term; those classified as medium- term are intended for a second round of pilots; longer-term actions would be suitable to consider after the end of the second round of pilots. Table ES-5: Proposed action plan for roll-out of reform Medium-term (second round Immediate Longer-term pilots) • Decide upon the mechanism through which the underlying labor market analysis for each • Conduct a detailed labor market of the target area(s) would be analysis in house using the M&E • Apply employer conducted (at 4-digit level of system surveys to get classification per target area) • Conduct consultations with local information on • Ensure a systematic employers etc. should be part of hiring trends collaboration with EIEAD’s the job description of the and skills needs, Understanding Diagnostic Mechanism employer counselors of the local including for OAED’s • Validate labor demand KPAs soft skills, and customers and findings through consultations • Establish local employment and consider labor demand with local employers, including skills councils where employers partnerships development of relevant and officials from the education with EIEAD, procedures and training system can cooperate the social • Track any COVID-related on defining and meeting skills partners or/and impacts that are not reflected needs other in the data organizations • Establish and pilot an employment and skills council in Elefsina • Map the identified hiring sectors • Analyze and • Set clear objectives and targets and occupations to firms in review for employer outreach OAED’s registry; segment and monitoring data • Establish strong coordination prioritize them, and determine the • Evaluate the mechanism between the Key appropriate contact approach Engagement strengths and Account Unit at OAED with • Complement quantitative analysis weaknesses of Headquarters and KPAs employers with systematic liaison and the outreach • Establish and communicate partnership with employer strategy monitoring indicators, related representative bodies • Adapt and monitoring and reporting • Prepare promotional and update the arrangements guidance material for the ALMPs approach as selected necessary • Train Key Account Unit staff and employer counselors in the planned approach and new ALMPs • Decide key messages for outreach • Strengthen the Mutual and communication channels Obligations Framework • Plan workload for counsellor • Decide on additional appointments assessment tools, and • Ensure target group can complete guidelines for counsellors profiling questionnaire and obtain • Consider public- • Expand counsellor guidelines appointment with counsellor private Engagement to include labor market easily partnerships to with information and obstacles to jobseekers • Provide counsellors up-to-date serve the hard- employment/ALMP to-place information on programs on offer participation • Update referral criteria and • Decide if feasible to provide guidelines, including additional referrals to community centers assessments and local services for Category 5 • Organize committee to approve training eligibility and procedures • Prepare/revise results chains and indicators for each program. Include data source, • Arrange for and disaggregation, periodicity and carry out a • Adjust training indicators to definition process Monitoring and evaluation include participant exits before • Identify information system evaluation completion source fields for indicators • Consider a • Assign responsibility for data possible impact provision and any written reports evaluation • Arrange to review monitoring data and identify follow-up • Define programs’ business processes • Upgrade program information systems to support program business processes. Identify any Information • Supply counselling IT features that cannot be supported infrastructure with labor and find alternatives technology market information • Realize necessary interoperability features • Put in place M&E MIS. Prepare dashboard formats and arrange for supply of data from information system • Agree on horizontal ALMPs • Analyze and • Select an appropriate ALMP mix that can be introduced in review for each pilot area allowing scope Greece regardless of area for the evaluation monitoring data • Start an internal conversation • Develop the ALMPs selected for on ALMPs about OAED’s capacity to • Evaluate the piloting starting with those judged ALMPs deliver the variety of services strengths and to be highest priority. For each required by its diverse ALMP this will involve: weaknesses of customer base, and alternative each program - Create the design rules approaches to some service • Adapt and - Develop the business processes delivery – ie outsourcing update programs - Establish benefit entitlement and program and allowances mix as necessary - Specify underpinning IT • Build expertise requirements in contracting - Establish monitoring indicators out skills and data reporting systems training learning - Streamline overall processes from the lessons and procedures and consistency of the Elefsina as far as possible across pilot OAED’s program portfolio • Introduce • Map stakeholders in target areas reformed with the potential to offer services funding to OAED’s Category 5 group and incentives and forge partnerships with relevant improved quality agencies for referral assurance for • Map OAED’s training capacity in outsourced target areas; map training • the public and private education programs and training providers to assess • Learn from their capacity to deliver programs other countries to priority client groups; map and with experience assess the other stakeholders in a of outsourcing similar way, for example, service delivery Chambers of Commerce, regional to explore the and municipal authorities, and possibility of large employers with potential to contracting out deliver the necessary training further services, • Produce a shortlist of providers e.g, job search that could deliver the training and assistance, and support needed for each area intensive forms of counseling • Decide which services OAED is and support best placed to deliver and which targeted at might be contracted out disadvantaged • Implement a mix of ALMPs in groups selected area Επιτελική Σύνοψη Η ελληνική κυβέρνηση αναγνωρίζει τη σημασία που έχει ο ενεργός και παραγωγικός πληθυσμός σε ηλικία εργασίας, ιδιαίτερα δεδομένου του υψηλού ποσοστού ανεργίας της Ελλάδας (ένα από τα υψηλότερα στην ΕΕ). Μεταξύ Οκτωβρίου 2013 και Οκτωβρίου 2020, το ποσοστό ανεργίας σημείωσε πτώση άνω των 10 ποσοστιαίων μονάδων, αγγίζοντας το 16,4 τοις εκατό. Παρά τη σημαντική αυτή βελτίωση προτού ξεσπάσει η πανδημία του κορωνοϊού COVID-19, η Ελλάδα συνεχίζει να αντιμετωπίζει έντονες πιέσεις στην αγορά εργασίας. Το 2019, πάνω από το 70 τοις εκατό των ανέργων βρισκόταν εκτός εργασίας για διάστημα τουλάχιστον 12 μηνών. Η επιμονή της μακροχρόνιας ανεργίας καταδεικνύει ότι πολλά από τα άτομα που αναζητούν εργασία έχουν παρατεταμένη έλλειψη επαφής με την αγορά εργασίας. Επομένως, διατρέχουν τον κίνδυνο να απολέσουν (ή στην περίπτωση νεοεισερχομένων στην αγορά εργασίας, να μην αποκτήσουν ποτέ) σχετικές δεξιότητες και εργασιακές συνήθειες. Για τον λόγο αυτό, η θέσπιση ενός αποτελεσματικού συστήματος Ενεργητικών Προγραμμάτων Απασχόλησης (ΕΠΑ) που θα υποστηρίξουν τη βιώσιμη ανάκαμψη της αγοράς εργασίας με άμεσα απασχολήσιμο εργατικό δυναμικό, συγκαταλέγεται στη λίστα με τις πιο σημαντικές προτεραιότητες της ελληνικής κυβέρνησης. Οι βάσεις για ένα πιο αποτελεσματικό σύστημα ΕΠΑ τέθηκαν στο Στρατηγικό Πλαίσιο για τον ανασχεδιασμό των ΕΠΑ8, το οποίο καταρτίστηκε και δημοσιεύτηκε από το Υπουργείο Εργασίας και Κοινωνικών Υποθέσεων (ΥΠΕΚΥΠ) τον Απρίλιο του 2018. Το Πλαίσιο έθεσε τις ευρείες κατευθύνσεις για τη μετάβαση από την περιστασιακή διαθεσιμότητα ΕΠΑ με ανοικτό σύστημα αιτήσεων από δυνητικούς επιλέξιμους συμμετέχοντες, προς αυτό που οι αρχές ονομάζουν «ανοικτό πλαίσιο», το οποίο συνάδει με τις ευρωπαϊκές πρακτικές (δηλαδή παραπομπές από εργασιακούς συμβούλους από ένα μενού προγραμμάτων που είναι συνεχώς διαθέσιμα).9 Επίσης, το Πλαίσιο πρότεινε συγκεκριμένες μεταρρυθμίσεις των προγραμμάτων κοινωφελούς εργασίας, επιχορήγησης επιχειρήσεων, κατάρτισης, επιχειρηματικότητας και για τη νεολαία. Λαμβάνοντας υπ’ όψιν τις δυσκολίες που παρουσιάζει η αύξηση των δαπανών για τα ΕΠΑ προκειμένου να εναρμονιστούν με τα ευρωπαϊκά επίπεδα, δεδομένων των δημοσιονομικών περιορισμών, δόθηκε προτεραιότητα στις πιο ευάλωτες ομάδες, συμπεριλαμβανομένων των μακροχρόνια ανέργων μεγαλύτερης ηλικίας με χαμηλές δεξιότητες, των νέων και των δικαιούχων του ελάχιστου εγγυημένου εισοδήματος (ΕΕΕ). Το Πλαίσιο ακόμη προσδιόρισε τα συγκεκριμένα μέτρα που είναι αναγκαία για την υλοποίηση αυτών των μεταρρυθμίσεων, όπως είναι η πρόσληψη επιπλέον συμβούλων,10 καθώς και τους περιορισμούς που θέτουν τα υψηλά επίπεδα ανεργίας και η χαμηλή εγχώρια ζήτηση στην Ελλάδα. Πριν από την ευρύτερη εφαρμογή της, ήταν αναγκαία η πιλοτική εφαρμογή της προσέγγισης. Εν περιλήψει, το νέο μοντέλο ΕΠΑ προέβλεπε τις ακόλουθες κύριες μεταρρυθμίσεις: • Συνεχής διαθεσιμότητα ενός μενού αναβαθμισμένων ΕΠΑ που ενημερώνονται από έγκαιρες πληροφορίες σχετικά με τις συνθήκες της αγοράς εργασίας, • Ενίσχυση της παροχής και του ρόλου της συμβουλευτικής στην παραπομπή των ανέργων σε ΕΠΑ, • Ενισχυμένη παρακολούθηση και αξιολόγηση, και • Ανάπτυξη των πληροφοριακών συστημάτων που υποστηρίζουν τη λειτουργία των ΕΠΑ, την παροχή συμβουλευτικών υπηρεσιών και την παρακολούθηση και αξιολόγηση προγραμμάτων. 8 Το πλήρες κείμενο είναι διαθέσιμο στη διεύθυνση: http://www.opengov.gr/minlab/wp- content/uploads/downloads/2018/04/stratigiko_plaisio.pdf (στα Ελληνικά). 9 Έως τώρα, τα ΕΠΑ έχουν εφαρμοστεί μέσω μεμονωμένων αιτημάτων που επιφέρουν όλες τις τοποθετήσεις σε ένα μόνο χρονικό σημείο του έτους, καθένα σε ισχύ για ορισμένες ομάδες-στόχο (με τακτική διάκριση ανά ηλικία) και με διαφορετικούς στόχους και ρυθμίσεις υλοποίησης. 10 Αυτό συμβαίνει επειδή το «ανοικτό πλαίσιο» αποκλίνει από την ανοιχτή πρόσκληση υποβολής αιτήσεων εισάγοντας τον ρόλο του συμβούλου που είναι υπεύθυνος για την παραπομπή του δικαιούχου στα ΕΠΑ που του/της ταιριάζουν καλύτερα. Η πρόοδος προς την μεταρρύθμιση των ΕΠΑ Η κυβέρνηση αποφάσισε να ξεκινήσει να δοκιμάζει την εφαρμογή αυτών των μεταρρυθμίσεων μέσω ενός μικρής κλίμακας πιλοτικού προγράμματος σε τρεις δήμους που καλύπτονται από το Κέντρο Προώθησης Απασχόλησης (ΚΠΑ2) της Ελευσίνας. Η επιλογή της τοποθεσίας καθορίστηκε από διάφορα κριτήρια, όπως: η ικανότητα της τοπικής οικονομίας να παρέχει θέσεις εργασίας, η προσβασιμότητα, η προηγούμενη συμμετοχή δήμων και επιχειρήσεων σε ΕΠΑ, ποσοστό ανεργίας σύμφωνα με τον εθνικό μέσο όρο και επηρεασμένο σχετικά λίγο από εποχιακούς παράγοντες, ικανότητα του τοπικού ΚΠΑ και παρουσία κέντρων επαγγελματικής κατάρτισης. Η ομάδα-στόχος του πιλοτικού προγράμματος ήταν οι άνεργοι 45 ετών και άνω οι οποίοι ήταν εγγεγραμμένοι στο μητρώο του ΟΑΕΔ για τουλάχιστον 6 μήνες. Η επιλογή αυτή έγινε δεδομένης της σημασίας που δίνεται στην Ελλάδα στην αντιμετώπιση της μακροχρόνιας αποσύνδεσης από την αγορά εργασίας. Το πιλοτικό πρόγραμμα της Ελευσίνας ξεκίνησε τον Νοέμβριο του 2018 και έχει πλέον ολοκληρωθεί. Τα διαθέσιμα στοιχεία για τα αποτελέσματα του πιλοτικού της Ελευσίνας δείχνουν ότι το ποσοστό απορρόφησης ανέρχεται περίπου στο 26 τοις εκατό. Παρά τις καθυστερήσεις στην άφιξη πρόσθετων συμβούλων καθώς και στον σχεδιασμό και στη λήψη των επιχειρηματικών αποφάσεων αναφορικά με την κατάρτιση, από τα 3617 άτομα που ήταν επιλέξιμα να συμμετάσχουν στον πιλοτικό (τον Σεπτέμβριο του 2019), 948 άτομα συμπλήρωσαν το ερωτηματολόγιο profiling, συναντήθηκαν με έναν εργασιακό σύμβουλο και συμφώνησαν σε ένα ατομικό σχέδιο δράσης (ΑΣΔ) έως τον Μάρτιο του 2020. Αυτό μεταφράζεται σε ένα ποσοστό απορρόφησης της τάξης του 26%. Μεταξύ των ατόμων που συναντήθηκαν με έναν εργασιακό σύμβουλο, μέχρι τον Οκτώβριο του 2020, 900 παραπέμφθηκαν σε κατάρτιση και 80 συμμετείχαν σε προγράμματα επιχορήγησης επιχειρήσεων για δημιουργία νέων θέσεων εργασίας. Από αυτούς που παραπέμφθηκαν σε κατάρτιση, 840 έλαβαν επιταγές κατάρτισης, ενώ 781 τις ενεργοποίησαν και συμμετείχαν στα προγράμματα κατάρτισης. Ο αριθμός των παραπομπών κατάρτισης άλλαξε ελαφρώς μόνο μεταξύ Μαρτίου και Οκτωβρίου 2020 (893 έναντι 900), ενώ περίπου οι μισές από τις νέες θέσεις εργασίας μέσω επιδοτούμενων προγραμμάτων, προσφέρθηκαν μετά τον Μάρτιο του 2020, πιθανότατα στο πλαίσιο αντιμετώπισης των επιπτώσεων της πανδημίας. Το πιλοτικό πρόγραμμα της Ελευσίνας, το οποίο ήταν και το πρώτο που ολοκληρώθηκε πλήρως11, δημιούργησε διδάγματα για μετέπειτα δοκιμές καθώς την περαιτέρω ενημέρωση της εφαρμογής του νέου μοντέλου ΕΠΑ. Πρόοδος σημειώθηκε σε ορισμένες μεταρρυθμίσεις, ενώ κάποιες άλλες αποδείχθηκε πως ενέχουν προκλήσεις. Το πιλοτικό πρόγραμμα κατάφερε να επιτύχει τον στόχο της ενίσχυσης του ρόλου της συμβουλευτικής και το profiling λειτούργησε καλά. Όσον αφορά στον στόχο αναβάθμισης του σχεδιασμού των ΕΠΑ, σημαντική πρόοδος σημειώθηκε στον εξορθολογισμό των διαδικασιών πρώτης γραμμής και πληρωμών των επιδοτούμενων προγραμμάτων νέων θέσεων εργασίας. Η μη επαρκής υποστήριξη του πληροφοριακού συστήματος παρεμπόδισε την εφαρμογή άλλων μέτρων για την απλούστευση διαδικασιών, κυριότερα όμως ο αριθμός κενών θέσεων εργασίας ήταν χαμηλός εξαιτίας της μη ύπαρξης μιας ξεκάθαρης στρατηγικής συνεργασίας με εργοδότες. Νέα προγράμματα κατάρτισης προσφέρθηκαν ενώ σε αυτά ενσωματώθηκαν αρκετές καινοτομίες, συμπεριλαμβανομένων εργαλείων αξιολόγησης, αναγνώρισης πρότερης μάθησης, ενός ευέλικτου σχεδιασμού για κατάρτιση σε βασικές δεξιότητες καθώς και επιλογή των ειδικοτήτων κατάρτισης σύμφωνα με τις ανάγκες της 11 Δύο πιλοτικά προγράμματα υλοποιήθηκαν το 2017. Το ένα έλεγξε την εφαρμογή του εργαλείου εργασιακής ετοιμότητας (profiling) και κάλυψε με επιτυχία κατά τι πάνω από 10.000 εγγεγραμμένους ανέργους. Σκοπός του δεύτερου πιλοτικού προγράμματος ήταν να ελέγξει και να αξιολογήσει την καταγραφή του προφίλ ( profiling) καθώς και την τοποθέτηση στο ενδεδειγμένο ΕΠΑ σε μια ομάδα-στόχο περίπου 1.500 εγγεγραμμένων ανέργων ηλικίας 18-29 ετών στον δήμο Καλλιθέας στην Αττική. Παρατηρήθηκαν σοβαρές δυσκολίες στην εφαρμογή ενός μενού ΕΠΑ για τις παραπομπές. Μόνο 154 άνεργοι ολοκλήρωσαν τη διαδικασία έως και τη δεύτερη συνέντευξη με τον σύμβουλο, κατά τη διάρκεια της οποίας είτε καταρτίστηκε είτε επικαιροποιήθηκε το ΑΣΔ, αντιπροσωπεύοντας ένα μικρό ποσοστό του αρχικού στόχου των 1.500 συμμετεχόντων. τοπικής αγοράς εργασίας. Ωστόσο, το επίπεδο των επιδομάτων κατάρτισης αποτέλεσε ένα ισχυρό κίνητρο για συμμετοχή στα προγράμματα αυτά, είτε ήταν η καλύτερη επιλογή για αύξηση της απασχολησιμότητας είτε όχι ενώ τα κόστη κατάρτισης ήταν υψηλά. Ως προς το στόχο δημιουργίας ενός μενού ΕΠΑ διαθέσιμων σε συνεχή βάση, παρατηρήθηκε ένα μειονέκτημα. Το πιλοτικό πρόγραμμα αποτελούνταν σχεδόν εξ’ ολοκλήρου από προγράμματα κατάρτισης, τα οποία δεν ήταν διαθέσιμα κατά τους πρώτους 8 μήνες. Τα προγράμματα κοινωφελούς εργασίας δεν συμπεριλήφθηκαν στο μενού του πιλοτικού ενώ οι τοποθετήσεις σε προγράμματα επιχορήγησης επιχειρήσεων ήταν λιγοστές. Ως προς το στόχο ενίσχυσης της παρακολούθησης και της αξιολόγησης των ΕΠΑ, η πρόοδος ήταν περιορισμένη καθώς η εξαγωγή δεδομένων από το βασικό πληροφοριακό σύστημα του ΟΑΕΔ (ΟΠΣ) αποδείχθηκε δύσκολη. Αντίθετα, η διαθεσιμότητα των δεδομένων που αφορούν στην κατάρτιση ήταν καλύτερη, καθώς αυτά αντλήθηκαν από διαφορετική πλατφόρμα η οποία δημιουργήθηκε για τις ανάγκες του πιλοτικού. Σύμφωνα με την εκ των υστέρων ανάλυση του πιλοτικού προγράμματος, τα αποτελέσματα όσον αφορά την απασχόληση, παρότι μέτρια, είναι θετικά. Η περιγραφική ανάλυση φανερώνει ότι παρότι η πιλοτική ομάδα- στόχος (άνεργοι 45 ετών και άνω και εγγεγραμμένοι για τουλάχιστον 6 μήνες στον ΟΑΕΔ), στην πλειονότητά της, δεν ενσωματώθηκε στην αγορά εργασίας, οι συμμετέχοντες στο πρόγραμμα είχαν περισσότερες πιθανότητες από τους μη συμμετέχοντες να έχουν βρει εργασία. Επιπλέον, ακόμα και μετά τον έλεγχο επιμέρους χαρακτηριστικών με τη χρήση της στατιστικής μεθόδου αντιστοίχισης τάσης βαθμολογίας (Propensity score matching), οι συμμετέχοντες στο πιλοτικό πρόγραμμα συνεχίζουν να έχουν πιο ευνοϊκά αποτελέσματα όσον αφορά την απασχόληση. Η ύπαρξη ενός ατομικού σχεδίου δράσης αύξησε την πιθανότητα απασχόλησης τον Οκτώβριο του 2020 κατά 3 ποσοστιαίες μονάδες περίπου και μείωσε κατά 5-6 ποσοστιαίες μονάδες την πιθανότητα εμφάνισης στο μητρώο ανεργίας του ΟΑΕΔ. Το δεύτερο μέρος της παρούσας έκθεσης συνοψίζει την μέχρι σήμερα πρόοδο καθώς και τα διδάγματα που αντλήθηκαν από την μεταρρύθμιση των ΕΠΑ στο πλαίσιο του πιλοτικού προγράμματος της Ελευσίνας. Επόμενο στάδιο της μεταρρύθμισης των ΕΠΑ Παρά τα επιτεύγματα του πιλοτικού προγράμματος της Ελευσίνας, και λαμβάνοντας υπόψη ότι στην Ελλάδα, όπως και σε άλλες χώρες, απαιτείται χρόνος τόσο για τη βελτίωση των ΕΠΑ όσο και των δημόσιων υπηρεσιών απασχόλησης, ακόμη περισσότερο δε εξαιτίας της πανδημίας COVID-19, οι μεταρρυθμίσεις δεν έχουν ακόμη ολοκληρωθεί. Προκειμένου να προχωρήσει η ατζέντα επί των μεταρρυθμίσεων των ΕΠΑ, η ελληνική κυβέρνηση αποφάσισε στις αρχές του 2019 να εφαρμόσει μια διττή στρατηγική η οποία περιλαμβάνει: (i) την εφαρμογή ενός δεύτερου γύρου πιλοτικών προγραμμάτων σε μεγαλύτερη κλίμακα και σε διαφορετικές συνθήκες στην αγορά εργασίας, οικονομικές δομές και γεωγραφικές περιοχές και (ii) εθνικές προσπάθειες για την ενίσχυση της συμβουλευτικής, την ενίσχυση της συνεργασίας με εργοδότες, τη βελτίωση της αξιοποίησης των πληροφοριών για την αγορά εργασίας και την ενίσχυση της παρακολούθησης και αξιολόγησης. Ωστόσο, οι αποφάσεις για τη μεταρρύθμιση καθυστέρησαν λόγω των εκλογών του Ιουλίου 2019 και στη συνέχεια εξαιτίας της πανδημίας του COVID-19. Σε περίπτωση που δεν ανακύψουν επιπλέον καθυστερήσεις, η δεύτερη φάση της μεταρρύθμισης αναμένεται να ξεκινήσει σε ύστερο χρόνο εντός του 2021. Έπειτα από την εφαρμογή των πιλοτικών προγραμμάτων της δεύτερης φάσης και την αξιολόγησή τους, η μεταρρύθμιση των ΕΠΑ αναμένεται να εφαρμοστεί σταδιακά σε εθνική κλίμακα από τα γραφεία απασχόλησης όλης της επικράτειας (βλ. χρονοδιάγραμμα στο Παράρτημα III). Η μεταρρύθμιση των ΕΠΑ μπορεί να τοποθετηθεί εντός του πλαισίου της «Θεωρίας της Αλληγής» όπως παρουσιάζεται στην Εικόνα ΕΣ-1 παρακάτω. Το σχήμα απεικονίζει την κατάσταση που υποκινεί την ανάγκη για μεταρρύθμιση, τις παρεμβάσεις, τις εκροές και τα αποτελέσματα του πιλοτικού της Ελευσίνας, καθώς και τις μεταρρυθμιστικές παρεμβάσεις και τις αναμενόμενες εκροές που θα ακολουθήσουν. Η ανάγκη για τη μεταρρύθμιση των ΕΠΑ στην Ελλάδα οφείλεται σε διάφορους παράγοντες, συμπεριλαμβανομένης της επίμονα υψηλής ανεργίας και των εντοπισμένων κενών του ελληνικού συστήματος σε σχέση με τις ευρωπαϊκές πρακτικές. Ακολουθώντας τις κατευθυντήριες γραμμές που ορίζονται στο Στρατηγικό Πλαίσιο για τον Επανασχεδιασμό των ΕΠΑ, το πιλοτικό πρόγραμμα της Ελευσίνας και οι υποκείμενες παρεμβάσεις αυτού, εφαρμόστηκαν ως το πρώτο βήμα προς ένα πιο αποτελεσματικό σύστημα ΕΠΑ. Η εφαρμογή των δραστηριοτήτων του πιλοτικού προγράμματος όχι μόνο οδήγησε σε μια σειρά σημαντικών αποτελεσμάτων, αλλά αποκάλυψε επίσης τα πλεονεκτήματα και τις αδυναμίες της πρώτης φάσης της μεταρρύθμισης. Παρείχε ακόμη σημαντικά διδάγματα ώστε να ενημερωθούν τα επόμενα στάδια της. Τα αναμενόμενα αποτελέσματα χαρτογραφούνται ανάλογα με το χρόνο που απαιτείται για να επιτευχθούν. Τα βραχυπρόθεσμα αποτελέσματα, συμπεριλαμβανομένων εκείνων που παρήχθησαν από την εφαρμογή του πιλοτικού της Ελευσίνας, είτε είναι ήδη σε ισχύ είτε αναμένεται να παρατηρηθούν σύντομα, καθώς οι σχετικές δράσεις ήδη εφαρμόζονται σε εθνικό επίπεδο. Τα ενδιάμεσα αποτελέσματα αναμένεται να επιτευχθούν μετά την εφαρμογή των πιλοτικών προγραμμάτων της δεύτερης φάσης, τα οποία θα εφαρμοστούν σε διαφορετικές περιφερειακές αγορές εργασίας και για διαφορετικές ομάδες στόχους. Η εθνική εφαρμογή της μεταρρύθμισης στοχεύει στη δημιουργία μακροπρόθεσμων επιθυμητών αποτελεσμάτων. Αυτά τα αποτελέσματα θα φέρουν τη χώρα πιο κοντά στην επίτευξη του οράματος της μεταρρύθμισης των ΕΠΑ, δηλαδή καλύτερα αποτελέσματα απασχόλησης για τους συμμετέχοντες σε αυτά. Προκειμένου να αντιμετωπιστούν ορισμένες από τις υπόλοιπες προκλήσεις και να ενημερωθούν τα επόμενα στάδια της μεταρρύθμισης, τα μέρη Γ’ και Δ’ της παρούσας έκθεσης επικεντρώνονται στην υλοποίηση της μη ολοκληρωμένης ατζέντας, η οποία θα επιχειρηθεί να εφαρμοστεί στην επόμενη φάση καθώς και στην εθνική εφαρμογή της μεταρρύθμισης. Οι προτεραιότητες περιλαμβάνουν: (i) μέτρα για την ενίσχυση ενός συνόλου βασικών διαδικασιών, πληροφοριών και πολιτικών που απαιτούνται για τη στήριξη του σχεδιασμού και της εφαρμογής επιτυχημένων ΕΠΑ στο μέλλον, (ii) διεύρυνση του μενού των ΕΠΑ σε τομείς που άπτονται του ενδιαφέροντος της ελληνικής κυβέρνησης και περαιτέρω βελτίωση των προγραμμάτων επιχορήγης των επιχειρήσεων και των προγραμμάτων κατάρτισης, τα βασικά δηλαδή προγράμματα του πιλοτικού της Ελευσίνας και (iii) πρόσθετα ζητήματα που πρέπει να ληφθούν υπόψιν για την εφαρμογή περαιτέρω μεταρρυθμίσεων, συμπεριλαμβανομένων εκείνων που σχετίζονται με την πανδημία του COVID-19. Η επόμενη φάση πιλοτικών προγραμμάτων είναι πιθανό να αλληλεπικαλυφθεί με την εφαρμογή του σχεδίου της Ελλάδας για χρήση των σημαντικών πόρων που θα είναι διαθέσιμοι μέσω του πακέτου ανάκαμψης «Next Generation EU» για τη στήριξη της ανάκαμψης της Ευρωπαϊκής οικονομίας από την πανδημία. Τα προτεινόμενα μέτρα που περιγράφονται στα μέρη Γ’ (Ενίσχυση του πλαισίου για το επόμενο στάδιο της μεταρρύθμισης των ΕΠΑ) και Δ’ (Προτεινόμενα ΕΠΑ για το επόμενο στάδιο της μεταρρύθμισης) ευθυγραμμίζονται με αυτό το σχέδιο. Η παρούσα έκθεση ολοκληρώνεται με ένα προτεινόμενο σχέδιο δράσης που περιλαμβάνει τα επόμενα βήματα (Μέρος Ε’). Εικόνα ΕΣ-1: Μεταρρύθμιση των ΕΠΑ εντός του πλαισίου της “Θεωρίας της Αλλαγής” Περίληψη μέρους Γ’: Ενίσχυση του πλαισίου για το επόμενο στάδιο της μεταρρύθμισης των ΕΠΑ Το πιλοτικό πρόγραμμα της Ελευσίνας κατέδειξε, μεταξύ άλλων, ότι οι προτεραιότητες της εναπομείνουσας μεταρρυθμιστικής ατζέντας περιλαμβάνουν αρκετά βασικά μέτρα για την ενίσχυση ενός πλαισίου που αποτελείται από 5 πτυχές κρίσιμες για ένα επιτυχημένο σύστημα ΕΠΑ: διεξοδική κατανόηση της πελατείας του ΟΑΕΔ - τόσο των αναζητούντων εργασία όσο και των εργοδοτών - καθώς και της ζήτησης της αγοράς εργασίας, συνεργασία με τους εργοδότες και τους αναζητούντες εργασία, πτυχές που σχετίζονται με την παρακολούθηση και την αξιολόγηση των προγραμμάτων και τεχνολογία πληροφοριών (βλ. Εικόνα ΕΣ-2). Οι ενότητες που ακολουθούν συνοψίζουν τα προτεινόμενα μέτρα για την περαιτέρω ενίσχυσή των πτυχών αυτών, συμπεριλαμβανομένων μέτρων για την εφαρμογή τους σε διαφορετικές γεωγραφικές περιοχές, αγορές εργασίας και ομάδες-στόχους,. Εικόνα ΕΣ-2: Πλαίσιο για τη μεταρρύθμιση των ΕΠΑ 1. Κατανόηση των πελατών του ΟΑΕΔ και της ζήτησης της αγοράς εργασίας Η λεπτομερής ανάλυση επιμέρους στοιχείων της ζήτησης εργατικού δυναμικού έχει κρίσιμη σημασία για τον σχεδιασμό και τη διαχείριση των ΕΠΑ. Τα δεδομένα για τις προσλήψεις, τις απολύσεις και τους όρους απασχόλησης είναι διαθέσιμα στο πληροφοριακό σύστημα (ΕΡΓΑΝΗ) του Υπουργείου Εργασίας και Κοινωνικών Υποθέσεων (ΥΠΕΚΥΠ) και περισσότερα δεδομένα διαχωρισμένα ανά τομέα και επάγγελμα είναι διαθέσιμα μέσω του Μηχανισμού Διάγνωσης του Εθνικού Ινστιτούτου Εργασίας και Ανθρώπινου Δυναμικού (ΕΙΕΑΔ). Η ανάλυση αυτών των δεδομένων, είτε διεξαχθεί εντός του ΟΑΕΔ είτε σε συνεργασία με το ΕΙΕΑΔ, θα μπορούσε να συμπληρωθεί από έρευνες στους εργοδότες και διαβουλεύσεις οι οποίες, για παράδειγμα, θα μπορούσαν να παράσχουν πληροφορίες για τα σχέδια 25 προσλήψεων. Απαιτείται περαιτέρω ανάλυση για τη στήριξη ειδικών αγορών εργασίας όπως οι αγορές σε μεταβατικό στάδιο (όπου κλείνουν μεταλλεία ή εργοστάσια που αντιπροσωπεύουν μεγάλο ποσοστό της απασχόλησης) και οι αγορές με υψηλό βαθμό εποχικής δραστηριότητας. Για τις αγορές σε μεταβατικό στάδιο, θα μπορούσαν να φανούν χρήσιμες οι πληροφορίες για νέες κενές θέσεις σε γειτονικές περιοχές και σε περιοχές με παρόμοια μεταλλεία ή εργοστάσια. Για τη δεύτερη κατηγορία αγορών, στις χρήσιμες πληροφορίες συγκαταλέγονται η ανάλυση της εποχικότητας της ζήτησης εργατικού δυναμικού, η συλλογή ποιοτικών πληροφοριών μέσω τοπικών ερευνών της αγοράς εργασίας και διαβουλεύσεων με βασικά ενδιαφερόμενα μέρη, καθώς και ο προσδιορισμός τομέων, επαγγελμάτων και γειτονικών περιοχών με ευκαιρίες απασχόλησης εκτός εποχής. Το προφίλ των χαρακτηριστικών των αναζητούντων εργασία έχει ουσιώδη σημασία για τον σχεδιασμό και την υλοποίηση προγραμμάτων που καλύπτουν τις ανάγκες των ανέργων. Τα βασικά απαιτούμενα δεδομένα περιλαμβάνουν πληροφορίες για το φύλο, την ηλικιακή ομάδα, τη διάρκεια ανεργίας, την εκπαίδευση, την απασχόληση, το καθεστώς αναζήτησης εργασίας (οι αναζητούντες εργασία έναντι των μη αναζητούντων) και την είσπραξη επιδομάτων ανεργίας και Ελάχιστου Εγγυημένου Εισοδήματος (ΕΕΕ). Αυτά μπορούν να αναλυθούν από τη σκοπιά χωριστών, σχεσιακών δεδομένων (π.χ. εγγεγραμμένοι άνεργοι ανά φύλο και ηλικιακή ομάδα) και προφίλ συγκεκριμένων κατηγοριών αναζητούντων εργασία (π.χ. άνεργες γυναίκες). Όπως συμβαίνει με τα δεδομένα για τη ζήτηση εργατικού δυναμικού, η εστίαση του ΟΑΕΔ σε συγκεκριμένες περιοχές μπορεί να χρειαστεί πρόσθετα δεδομένα. Στις περιοχές που αντιμετωπίζουν μεγάλη άνοδο της ανεργίας, οι πληροφορίες για τους εργαζόμενους που προβλέπεται να απολυθούν θα πρέπει να λαμβάνονται από εταιρείες που κλείνουν ή προχωρούν σε περικοπές προσωπικού. Ο ΟΑΕΔ θα μπορούσε να εξετάσει το ενδεχόμενο συλλογής πρόσθετων πληροφοριών από πελάτες που είναι εγγεγραμμένοι σε αγορές εποχικής εργασίας, για παράδειγμα προγράμματα απασχόλησης σε νεκρές περιόδους και ενδιαφέρον για κατάρτιση. Άλλες πηγές πληροφοριών για τις αγορές εργασίας είναι επίσης διαθέσιμες. Το ευρωπαϊκό μοντέλο προβλέψεων δεξιοτήτων του Ευρωπαϊκού Κέντρου για την Ανάπτυξη της Επαγγελματικής Κατάρτισης (CEDEFOP) παρέχει ποσοτικές προβλέψεις των τάσεων στην απασχόληση. Ο Μηχανισμός Διάγνωσης του ΕΙΕΑΔ παρέχει πληροφορίες για την απασχόληση, άλλα χαρακτηριστικά της θέσης (π.χ. μισθοί) και τάσεις σε οικονομικούς τομείς, επαγγέλματα και προσόντα σε εθνικό και περιφερειακό επίπεδο, παράλληλα με προβλέψεις απασχόλησης για επαγγέλματα σε κάθε περιοχή της χώρας. Διάφορα ενδιαφερόμενα μέρη έχουν αναλάβει εγχειρήματα πρόβλεψης δεξιοτήτων για να κατανοήσουν τις τάσεις απασχόλησης και να προσδιορίσουν μελλοντικές ανάγκες δεξιοτήτων. Εμπορικές ενώσεις και συνδικαλιστικές οργανώσεις μπορούν να παράσχουν σημαντικές πληροφορίες για την αγορά εργασίας μέσω πιο επίσημων θεσμικών οργάνων, όπως τα συμβούλια δεξιοτήτων. Η παρακολούθηση των αποτελεσμάτων της αγοράς εργασίας για συμμετέχοντες στο πρόγραμμα μπορεί να αποτελέσει έμμεση πηγή πληροφόρησης. Επίσης, νέες πηγές πληροφοριών για την αγορά εργασίας σε πραγματικό χρόνο, όπως οι αναρτήσεις θέσεων σε δικτυακές πύλες για την απασχόληση, μπορούν να συμπληρώσουν τις συμβατικές πηγές δεδομένων για την αγορά εργασίας. 2. Συνεργασία με εργοδότες Οι ισχυρές συμπράξεις με τους εργοδότες είναι κρίσιμης σημασίας για την απόκτηση πληροφοριών σχετικά με τις διαθέσιμες κενές θέσεις και για τη διασφάλιση ότι οι υπηρεσίες έχουν ως γνώμονα τη ζήτηση. Πρέπει να παρέχεται στις εταιρείες προσαρμοσμένο υλικό σχετικά με τις ενεργητικές πολιτικές για την αγορά εργασίας, το οποίο θα είναι σύντομο, εύκολα προσβάσιμο και θα παρουσιάζει τα βασικά μηνύματα που έχουν σημασία για αυτές. Θα μπορούσε να σχεδιαστεί, για παράδειγμα, ένα φυλλάδιο για 26 εργοδότες το οποίο θα εξηγεί πώς μπορεί ο ΟΑΕΔ να βοηθήσει και τι μπορούν να κάνουν οι εργοδότες για να τονώσουν την επιχειρηματική τους δραστηριότητα και να στηρίξουν την τοπική κοινότητα. Επιπλέον, θα χρειαστεί πιο συγκεκριμένο υλικό για τη δεύτερη φάση της μεταρρύθμισης, το οποίο θα εξηγεί πώς λειτουργούν οι επιλεγμένες παρεμβάσεις και πώς μπορεί να προκριθεί ένας εργοδότης. Όσο σημαντικός είναι ο συντονισμός μεταξύ του προσωπικού που επικοινωνεί με τους εργοδότες σε όλα τα επίπεδα του ΟΑΕΔ καθ' όλη τη διάρκεια αυτής της προσπάθειας, άλλο τόσο σημαντικός είναι ο διαχωρισμός των αρμοδιοτήτων. Η Μονάδα Μεγάλων Επιχειρήσεων του ΟΑΕΔ θα μπορούσε να επικεντρωθεί στην επικοινωνία με μεγάλους εργοδότες στις περιοχές-στόχους ενώ οι προϊστάμενοι των τοπικών γραφείων απασχόλησης (ΚΠΑ2) και οι σύμβουλοι εργοδοτών θα μπορούσαν να προσεγγίσουν τοπικές μικρότερες εταιρείες και τοπικά δίκτυα εργοδοτών. Τα βασικά βήματα που προτείνονται για την ενίσχυση της ενημέρωσης των εργοδοτών από τον ΟΑΕΔ περιλαμβάνουν: (i) να θέτει σαφείς στόχους και επιδιώξεις, (ii) να ενισχύει το συντονισμό μεταξύ της Μονάδας Μεγάλων Λογαριασμών και των KPA2s, (iii) να καθιερώνει και να κοινοποιεί εκ των προτέρων δείκτες παρακολούθησης και ρυθμίσεις για την υποβολή εκθέσεων, (iv) να εντοπίζει και να ιεραρχεί εταιρείες που είναι πιθανό να προβούν σε προσλήψεις από το μητρώο του ΟΑΕΔ και να καθορίζει πώς πρέπει να προσεγγίζονται, (vi) να εκπονεί υλικό προώθησης και καθοδήγησης και (vii) να εκπαιδεύει το προσωπικό και να του επεξηγεί τη γενική προσέγγιση και τα σχέδια υλοποίησης. Η εισαγωγή συμβουλίων δεξιοτήτων σε περιφερειακό ή τοπικό επίπεδο θα μπορούσε να βοηθήσει, όπου εργοδότες και λειτουργοί από το σύστημα εκπαίδευσης και κατάρτισης μπορούν να συνεργαστούν προκειμένου αρχικά να προσδιορίσουν και έπειτα να καλύψουν τις ανάγκες δεξιοτήτων. 3. Συνεργασία με αναζητούντες εργασία Η συνεργασία με τους αναζητούντες εργασία θα πρέπει να εστιάσει σε συγκεκριμένους τομείς όπως η προσέγγιση και η επικοινωνία, η εγγραφή και η απορρόφηση, η συμβουλευτική και η παρακολούθηση: • Προσέγγιση και επικοινωνία. Πρέπει να είναι διαθέσιμες στον πληθυσμό-στόχο πληροφορίες σχετικά με τα προγράμματα και τις διαδικασίες υλοποίησης, καθώς και με τις απαιτήσεις επιλεξιμότητας, προκειμένου να ενθαρρυνθεί η εκδήλωση ενδιαφέροντος για τις υπηρεσίες. Για τη μεταρρύθμιση των ΕΠΑ, οι παρεχόμενες πληροφορίες θα μπορούσαν να δώσουν έμφαση στο γεγονός ότι ο στόχος του ΟΑΕΔ είναι να βοηθά τους πελάτες να εξασφαλίσουν εργασία και θα μπορούσαν να εξηγούν με σαφήνεια τους παράγοντες που καθορίζουν τις παραπομπές και την πρόσβαση σε προγράμματα (κατηγορία προφίλ, τα αποτελέσματα των εργαλείων αξιολόγησης κ.λπ.), καθώς και τα δικαιώματα και τις ευθύνες των συμμετεχόντων (πλαίσιο αμοιβαίων υποχρεώσεων). Η αναθεώρηση του ελληνικού πλαισίου αμοιβαίων υποχρεώσεων από τον ΟΑΕΔ, το οποίο είναι χαλαρότερο από τα πρότυπα του ΟΟΣΑ για την παρακολούθηση της αναζήτησης εργασίας, τη διαθεσιμότητα για εργασία και την καταλληλότητα της εργασίας, θα πρέπει να ολοκληρωθεί και οι αλλαγές να επικυρωθούν πριν από την έναρξη της επέκτασης της μεταρρύθμισης, έτσι ώστε να αποτυπωθούν στις ανακοινώσεις προς τους αναζητούντες εργασία. • Εγγραφή και εκδήλωση ενδιαφέροντος. Σε περιοχές που αντιμετωπίζουν μαζικές απολύσεις λόγω διαρθρωτικών αλλαγών, οι υπηρεσίες (συμπεριλαμβανομένου του profiling) θα πρέπει επίσης να επεκταθούν στα άτομα που διατρέχουν τον κίνδυνο να απολυθούν, ακόμα και αν δεν έχουν εγγραφεί ακόμα ως άνεργοι. Η πρόσβαση σε υπηρεσίες και προγράμματα θα πρέπει να βασίζεται στον διαχωρισμό των αναζητούντων εργασία από τον ΟΑΕΔ σε πέντε ομάδες, ανάλογα 27 με την πιθανότητα εξεύρεσης εργασίας. Ωστόσο, ο ΟΑΕΔ θα πρέπει να παρέμβει το συντομότερο δυνατό για να αντιμετωπίσει την ανεργία των νέων και να στηρίξει τους εργαζόμενους που διατρέχουν τον κίνδυνο μαζικών απολύσεων. Εάν η παροχή δυνητικών συμμετεχόντων υπερβεί τη διαθεσιμότητα προγραμμάτων, ενδέχεται να χρειαστεί να χρησιμοποιηθούν άλλα κριτήρια παράλληλα με την κατηγορία προφίλ (όπως μακροχρόνια άνεργοι και τα αποτελέσματα των αξιολογήσεων). Ο ΟΑΕΔ θα μπορούσε να εξετάσει το ενδεχόμενο θεσμοθέτησης μιας επιτροπής στο πλαίσιο του τοπικού γραφείου απασχόλησης, η οποία θα λαμβάνει την τελική απόφαση για τη συμμετοχή σε προγράμματα κατάρτισης. • Συμβουλευτική και παραπομπές. Οι σύμβουλοι θα μπορούσαν να προχωρήσουν πέρα από το ερωτηματολόγιο profiling για να αξιολογήσουν τις ανάγκες των αναζητούντων εργασία για δεξιότητες, να αξιολογήσουν την καταλληλότητα για κάποια ειδικότητα κατάρτισης, να κρίνουν τη δέσμευση των αναζητούντων εργασία και τυχόν εμπόδια στην απορρόφηση ενός ΕΠΑ, και να παράσχουν πληροφορίες για την τοπική αγορά. Ο διάλογος για τις αμοιβαίες υποχρεώσεις, που τώρα γίνεται για παραπομπές που αφορούν επιδότηση μισθού, θα μπορούσε να επεκταθεί σε όλους τους αναζητούντες εργασία. Θα μπορούσαν να αναπτυχθούν επιλογές παραπομπών για τα άτομα που συναντούν εμπόδια στην απασχόληση (κατηγορία 5) και χρειάζονται υπηρεσίες που δεν παρέχονται από τον ΟΑΕΔ. Προκειμένου να διαχειριστεί την παροχή συμβουλευτικών υπηρεσιών ανάλογα με το ποσοστό απορρόφησης, ο ΟΑΕΔ μπορεί να εξετάσει κατά προτεραιότητα το ενδεχόμενο της συμβουλευτικής σε ομάδες πιο απομακρυσμένες από την αγορά εργασίας. • Παρακολούθηση. Ο σύμβουλος θα πρέπει να παρακολουθήσει τις δράσεις των αναζητούντων εργασία μετά την παραπομπή (π.χ. ενεργοποίηση επιταγής, παρακολούθηση μαθημάτων, αποτελέσματα συνεντεύξεων με εργοδότες) και να παρακολουθεί τη συμμόρφωση με τις απαιτήσεις αμοιβαίων υποχρεώσεων, όπως η αναζήτηση εργασίας. Η συνέντευξη συμμετοχής μετά το ΕΠΑ θα πρέπει να καταστεί τυπικό μέρος των διαδικασιών συμβουλευτικής. Αρκετά ζητήματα είναι σημαντικά για την συνεργασία του ΟΑΕΔ με τους αναζητούντες εργασία. Η επέκταση της μεταρρύθμισης θα καλύψει όλους τους εγγεγραμμένους άνεργους ή ορισμένες ομάδες- στόχους; Η απόφαση αυτή θα επηρεάσει ακολούθως τον προγραμματισμό του φόρτου εργασίας. Για το λόγο αυτό, θα πρέπει να προσδιοριστούν τα βασικά μηνύματα και οι κύριοι δίαυλοι επικοινωνίας με τους αναζητούντες εργασία (οι ενημερωτικές συναντήσεις ομάδων, οι τηλεφωνικές κλήσεις καθώς και ο ιστότοπος του ΟΑΕΔ λειτούργησαν καλά στο πιλοτικό πρόγραμμα της Ελευσίνας). Η ομάδα-στόχος θα πρέπει αφενός να μπορεί να έχει πρόσβαση και να συμπληρώνει το ερωτηματολόγιο profiling εύκολα, και αφετέρου να εξασφαλίζει συνάντηση με έναν εργασιακό σύμβουλο. Θα πρέπει να σχεδιαστούν εργαλεία αξιολόγησης και να δοθούν κατευθύνσεις για τον προσδιορισμό της επιλεξιμότητας και τις παραπομπές. Επίσης, μια πιο εντατική παρακολούθηση των εγγεγραμμένων ανέργων θα συνέβαλε στη διασφάλιση της ενεργητικής αναζήτησης εργασίας. 4. Παρακολούθηση και αξιολόγηση Για την επέκταση της μεταρρύθμισης των ΕΠΑ, είναι αναγκαίος ο άρτιος σχεδιασμός των διαδικασιών παρακολούθησης και αξιολόγησης για δύο κυρίως λόγους. Πρώτον για την παρακολούθηση της υλοποίησης και δεύτερον για την ενημέρωση του μελλοντικού συστήματος ΕΠΑ. Οι στόχοι της επέκτασης της μεταρρύθμισης και κάθε ΕΠΑ θα μπορούσαν να τυποποιηθούν μέσω μιας αλυσίδας αποτελεσμάτων, συμπεριλαμβανομένων εισροών, δραστηριοτήτων, εκροών, αποτελεσμάτων 28 και μακροπρόθεσμου αντίκτυπου. Θα πρέπει να τεθούν οι δείκτες που θα χρησιμοποιηθούν για την παρακολούθηση της προόδου σε κάθε πρόγραμμα και για τη συνολική επέκταση της μεταρρύθμισης, καθώς και οι στόχοι της μεταρρύθμισης. Οι αξιολογήσεις μπορούν να περιλαμβάνουν αξιολογήσεις διαδικασιών για την εκτίμηση του σχεδιασμού και της υλοποίησης του προγράμματος και αξιολογήσεις επιπτώσεων για την εκτίμηση της σχέσης αιτίας-αποτελέσματος του προγράμματος. 5. Τεχνολογία των πληροφοριών Ο ΟΑΕΔ θα πρέπει να σκεφτεί να τροποποιήσει τα ψηφιακά οικοσυστήματα / τις πλατφόρμες του σύμφωνα με τις μεταρρυθμίσεις των νέων ΕΠΑ. Στις υψηλού επιπέδου συστάσεις για την επέκταση της μεταρρύθμισης των ΕΠΑ, με βάση την εμπειρία από το πιλοτικό πρόγραμμα της Ελευσίνας, περιλαμβάνονται η θέσπιση αξιόπιστης υποδομής IT, περιλαμβανομένου του συστήματος παρακολούθησης και αξιολόγησης (Π&Α) πριν από την εφαρμογή των νέων ΕΠΑ· αναβάθμιση του βασικού συστήματος πληροφοριών διοίκησης (αποκαλούμενο ΟΠΣ) του ΟΑΕΔ και του πληροφοριακού συστήματος που στηρίζει το πιλοτικό πρόγραμμα κατάρτισης (MIS DRTP)· συμπλήρωση όλων των απαραίτητων χαρακτηριστικών διαλειτουργικότητας του ΟΠΣ του ΟΑΕΔ και λοιπών πληροφοριακών συστημάτων στα πρώιμα στάδια του προγράμματος· παροχή της υποδομής IT για τη συμβουλευτική με πληροφορίες και στοιχεία για την αγορά εργασίας χρησιμοποιώντας το μέσο που αναπτύχθηκε από το ΕΙΕΑΔ από τον Μηχανισμό Διάγνωσης· και προσδιορισμός χαρακτηριστικών μεταρρύθμισης που δεν υποστηρίζονται από την κεντρική υποδομή IT του ΟΑΕΔ κατά τη φάση σχεδιασμού των ΕΠΑ. Περίληψη μέρους Δ’: Προτεινόμενα ΕΠΑ για το επόμενο στάδιο της μεταρρύθμισης Ο ΟΑΕΔ θα μπορούσε να προσφέρει ένα χαρτοφυλάκιο προγραμμάτων οριζόντια σε όλες τις περιφέρειες καθώς και διαφοροποιημένα προγράμματα για να ανταποκριθεί στις ανάγκες συγκεκριμένων περιφερειών. Στα προγράμματα και τις υπηρεσίες που θα μπορούσαν να προσφερθούν σε όλες τις περιφέρειες περιλαμβάνονται (Εικόνα ΕΣ-3): διαμεσολάβηση και αντιστοίχιση αναζητούντων εργασία με κενές θέσεις εργασίας· νέα προπαρασκευαστικά προγράμματα αναζήτησης εργασίας (παρεχόμενα στο διαδίκτυο και σε ομαδικές συναντήσεις)·καθοδήγηση σε θέματα σταδιοδρομίας και επαγγελματικός προσανατολισμός· υποστηρικτικά δίκτυα για την κάλυψη των αναγκών των γυναικών που αντιμετωπίζουν ιδιαίτερα εμπόδια στην είσοδο ή την επανένταξη στην αγορά εργασίας· αξιολόγηση βασικών δεξιοτήτων και κατάρτιση σε βασικές δεξιότητες· κατάρτιση σε ψηφιακές δεξιότητες μέσω διαδικτυακών μαθημάτων· εθνικά προγράμματα επιχορήγησης επιχειρήσεων· υποστήριξη επιχειρηματικότητας και προγράμματα κοινωφελούς εργασίας. Ο ΟΑΕΔ εξετάζει επίσης την παροχή διαφοροποιημένων προγραμμάτων σε περιοχές σε μεταβατικό στάδιο, περιοχές με υψηλό ποσοστό εποχικής απασχόλησης και αστικές περιοχές με υψηλό ποσοστό ανεργίας (Εικόνα ΕΣ-4). Ο ΟΑΕΔ θα μπορούσε να εξετάσει το ενδεχόμενο να αντικαταστήσει το τρέχον σύστημα των πολλαπλών προγραμμάτων επιχορήγησης επιχειρήσεων με διαφορετικές ομάδες-στόχους και παραμέτρους, με ένα συνεχώς ανοικτό πρόγραμμα. Ένα πρόγραμμα τέτοιου είδους θα προσάρμοζε το επίπεδο της επιχορήγησης ανάλογα με την απόσταση του ανέργου από την αγορά εργασίας και θα λάμβανε υπ’ όψιν τις συνθήκες της αγοράς εργασίας στη ρύθμιση των παραμέτρων και των αριθμών προς επιχορήγηση. Αυτή η προσέγγιση θα απλούστευε τη διαχείριση, θα αύξανε την προβλεψιμότητα για τους εργοδότες και τους ανέργους και θα βελτίωνε την αποτελεσματικότητα. Άλλες βελτιώσεις θα μπορούσαν να είναι η αύξηση της συνεργασίας με τους εργοδότες, η χαλάρωση των όρων για την επιλεξιμότητα εργοδοτών (ιδίως ο περιορισμός του όρου της μη απόλυσης), η διεύρυνση των ειδών των θέσεων εργασίας (π.χ. θέσεις μερικής απασχόλησης) που είναι επιλέξιμες για προγράμματα επιχορήγησης, η προσφορά 29 επιχορηγήσεων για τη μετατροπή συμβάσεων προσωρινής απασχόλησης ή ορισμένου χρόνου σε συμβάσεις αορίστου χρόνου, ο εξορθολογισμός της διαδικασίας πληρωμής και ελέγχου (π.χ. με ηλεκτρονική επαλήθευση) και ο συνδυασμός προγραμμάτων επιχορήγησης επιχειρήσεων με προγράμματα κατάρτισης. Όλες αυτές οι επιλογές θα μπορούσαν να αυξήσουν την απορρόφηση, γεγονός που συνιστά πρόκληση στην ελληνική αγορά εργασίας που χαρακτηρίζεται από υψηλή ανεργία. Εικόνα ΕΣ-3: Προγράμματα που θα μπορούσαν να προσφέρονται οριζόντια σε όλη τη χώρα Εικόνα ΕΣ-4: Πρόσθετα προγράμματα που θα ταίριαζαν σε αρκετές αγορές εργασίας της Ελλάδας Ειδικά για τις αγορές εποχικής εργασίας, ο ΟΑΕΔ το 2019 είχε εφαρμόσει ένα πρόγραμμα που παρείχε είτε απασχόληση είτε απόκτηση νέων δεξιοτήτων κατά τη περίοδο εκτός αιχμής. Ο ΟΑΕΔ θα πρέπει να αξιολογήσει την επιτυχία του προγράμματος αυτού και να αξιοποιήσει τα διδάγματα από 30 αυτή την εμπειρία. Αρθρωτά (modular) προγράμματα κατάρτισης σύντομης χρονικής διάρκειας θα μπορούσαν να δώσουν τη δυνατότητα στους εποχικούς εργαζόμενους να συμπληρώσουν τις δεξιότητές τους και να λάβουν αναγνώριση γι’ αυτές. Τα προγράμματα ταχείας κατάρτισης θα μπορούσαν να αξιοποιήσουν τις δεξιότητες των εργαζομένων στον τομέα του τουρισμού και να τους δώσουν τη δυνατότητα να στραφούν σε άλλα επαγγέλματα κατά το διάστημα που δεν εργάζονται ή να αλλάξουν γενικά απασχόληση έως ότου μετριαστεί ο αντίκτυπος του COVID-19 στον τουρισμό. Η επαγγελματική εμπειρία και η επαγγελματική κατάρτιση παρέχουν σημαντικά οφέλη αλλά χρειάζονται αποτελεσματική διαχείριση. Προγράμματα επαγγελματικής εμπειρίας δεν έχουν θεσπιστεί ακόμα από τον ΟΑΕΔ ως αυτόνομη επιλογή αλλά οι εργοδότες θεωρούν ότι είναι χαμηλού κινδύνου και συνεπάγονται ελάχιστη γραφειοκρατία· παρέχουν χρήσιμο στήριγμα στην αγορά εργασίας για τους αναζητούντες εργασία που δεν διαθέτουν πρόσφατη επαγγελματική εμπειρία και δίνουν τη δυνατότητα στους αναζητούντες εργασία να αναπτύξουν τις δεξιότητές τους σε ένα ρεαλιστικό περιβάλλον. Η αποτελεσματικότητα των προγραμμάτων κατάρτισης του ΟΑΕΔ, τα οποία βασίζονται στην εργασία και παρουσιάστηκαν πιλοτικά στην Ελευσίνα αλλά δεν έχουν ενσωματωθεί ακόμα σε όλο τον οργανισμό, θα μπορούσε να βελτιωθεί με διάφορους τρόπους: (i) θα μπορούσαν να απαιτούν μέγιστη και όχι υποχρεωτική διάρκεια για τις τοποθετήσεις σε θέσεις πρακτικής άσκησης, ώστε να ενθαρρύνουν τους εργοδότες να προχωρούν σε προσφορά εργασίας κατά την περίοδο της τοποθέτησης· (ii) ενδεχόμενο καταβολής μικρού επιδόματος στους αναζητούντες εργασία που δεν λαμβάνουν παροχές· (iii) εκ των προτέρων προσδιορισμός των απαιτήσεων για υποδομή IT, των δεικτών παρακολούθησης και των συστημάτων αναφοράς· (iv) επανεξέταση των εργοδοτών που συμμετέχουν για να διασφαλιστεί ότι παρέχουν ποιοτικές θέσεις πρακτικής άσκησης βασισμένες στη μάθηση στο χώρο εργασίας και με προοπτικές απασχόλησης· (v) υπογραφή κοινής συμφωνίας με τους εργοδότες και τους δικαιούχους, η οποία θα παραθέτει τις ευθύνες όλων των συμβαλλομένων· (vi) παρακολούθηση αποτελεσμάτων τόσο για τους εργοδότες όσο και τους δικαιούχους· (vii) εξέταση του ενδεχομένου υποχρεωτικής διεξαγωγής συνέντευξης εργασίας και διασφάλιση της παροχής συστατικών επιστολών από τους εργοδότες· (viii) εκπόνηση ενός οδηγού που θα βοηθά τους εργοδότες στην παροχή χρήσιμης εμπειρίας για τους αναζητούντες εργασία· και (ix) ανάπτυξη νέων επιχειρηματικών διαδικασιών για τη συλλογή και την ανάρτηση θέσεων, την προσέγγιση εργοδοτών και τις προϋποθέσεις επιλεξιμότητας, καθώς και για την κάλυψη θέσεων. Η στενή συμμετοχή εργοδοτών στα προγράμματα κατάρτισης μπορεί να βελτιώσει την εναρμόνισή τους με τη ζήτηση για εργαζόμενους και δεξιότητες. Τα προγράμματα κατάρτισης για εξειδικευμένες ανάγκες επιχειρήσεων ή κλάδων, στο σχεδιασμό των οποίων συμμετέχουν οι εργοδότες (employer-led training programs) τείνουν να ωθούν τους εργοδότες να συμμετάσχουν τόσο στον καθορισμό του περιεχομένου κατάρτισης όσο και στην υλοποίησή της. Οι εργοδότες, τα ινστιτούτα κατάρτισης και οι συμμετέχοντες συχνά συνεργάζονται για να δημιουργήσουν ένα σχέδιο κατάρτισης και οι εργοδότες συχνά δεσμεύονται για τη διεξαγωγή συνεντεύξεων και, μερικές φορές, για την πρόσληψη ενός ποσοστού καταρτιζόμενων. Μια λεπτομερής αξιολόγηση ζήτησης εργασίας και δεξιοτήτων θα μπορούσε να διεξαχθεί στο 4 - ψήφιο επίπεδο ταξινόμησης (4-digit level of classification), σε συνδυασμό με διαβουλεύσεις με εργοδότες. Θα πρέπει να συναφθούν συμπράξεις με τους εργοδότες και τις αντιπροσωπευτικές οργανώσεις τους, π.χ. ομοσπονδίες βιομηχανιών και εμπορικά επιμελητήρια. Επίσης, θα μπορούσαν να χαρτογραφηθούν εντοπισμένοι τομείς προσλήψεων και επαγγέλματα για τις εταιρείες και να διαχωριστούν με βάση τη Στρατηγική Συνεργασίας με Εργοδότες. Θα μπορούσαν να αναπτυχθούν μαθησιακές ενότητες ψηφιακού αλφαβητισμού, η διαθεσιμότητα περιεχομένου στο διαδίκτυο θα μπορούσε να αυξηθεί και θα μπορούσε να διατεθεί εκπαιδευτικό υλικό στους ανέργους και σε όσους διατρέχουν κίνδυνο απόλυσης. Το 31 εργαλείο αναγνώρισης δεξιοτήτων που προτάθηκε να χρησιμοποιηθεί στο πιλοτικό πρόγραμμα του ΟΑΕΔ για την εργασιακή ένταξη των αναγνωρισμένων προσφύγων θα μπορούσε να προσαρμοστεί και να εφαρμοστεί στις κύριες επιχειρησιακές διαδικασίες. Τέλος, οι γενικές διαδικασίες θα μπορούσαν να εξορθολογιστούν και να απλοποιηθούν ενώ είναι απαραίτητο να βελτιωθεί η συνοχή τους σε όλο το χαρτοφυλάκιο των προγραμμάτων κατάρτισης. Πριν από την εφαρμογή νέων προγραμμάτων κατάρτισης, απαιτείται ανάλυση της ικανότητάς παροχής αυτών. Ο ΟΑΕΔ θα θελήσει να εξετάσει την παραγωγική δυναμικότητά του, συμπεριλαμβανομένων των εγκαταστάσεων κατάρτισης, την εμπειρογνωμοσύνη, την πείρα και τη διαθεσιμότητα των εκπαιδευτών, τα εκπαιδευτικά προγράμματα, το υλικό μάθησης και αξιολόγησης, καθώς και τις επιλογές πιστοποίησης. Επιπρόσθετα στα ζητήματα δυναμικότητας του ΟΑΕΔ, με βάση την καλή πρακτική, η αποκεντρωμένη παροχή κατάρτισης, από ευρύ φάσμα παρόχων εκπαίδευσης, ενισχύει τις ευκαιρίες για προσαρμοσμένη παροχή και πρακτική κατάρτιση προσανατολισμένη στις ανάγκες της αγοράς εργασίας. Ο ΟΑΕΔ θα πρέπει επίσης να λάβει υπ’ όψιν άλλα ενδιαφερόμενα μέρη, για παράδειγμα, εμπορικά επιμελητήρια, περιφερειακές και δημοτικές αρχές και μεγάλους εργοδότες. Είναι απαραίτητες περισσότερες πληροφορίες για τους παρόχους εκπαίδευσης και κατάρτισης του δημόσιου και ιδιωτικού τομέα στις περιοχές-στόχους και ο ΟΑΕΔ θα πρέπει να προχωρήσει στη χαρτογράφηση της δικής του δυναμικότητας και αυτής των παρόχων στις στοχευμένες περιοχές. Η ποιότητα των εξωτερικά ανατεθειμένων προγραμμάτων κατάρτισης θα μπορούσε να βελτιωθεί μέσω του ελέγχου των παρόχων κατάρτισης προκειμένου να εκτιμηθεί η ποιότητα εκτέλεσης και συμμόρφωσης (με εκ των προτέρων θέσπιση δεικτών παρακολούθησης), ενώ θα μπορούσαν να υποστηριχθούν από κάποια οφέλη για καλά αποτελέσματα. Επιπρόσθετα, ο ΟΑΕΔ θα μπορούσε να εξετάσει το ενδεχόμενο να θεσπίσει μια νέα μορφή χρηματοδότησης που θα ανταμείβει τους ιδιώτες παρόχους κατάρτισης με βάση τα αποτελέσματα που έχουν επιτευχθεί ως προς την απασχόληση. Παράμετροι υλοποίησης της μεταρρύθμισης των ΕΠΑ και δυνητικές προκλήσεις του COVID-19 Ο ΟΑΕΔ λειτουργεί σύμφωνα με πιο αυστηρούς δημοσιονομικούς περιορισμούς από πολλές άλλες ευρωπαϊκές Δημόσιες Υπηρεσίες Απασχόλησης, ενώ ταυτόχρονα αντιμετωπίζει σημαντικούς περιορισμούς δυναμικότητας για την υλοποίηση των ποικίλων υπηρεσιών που χρειάζεται η πολύμορφη βάση πελατών του. Με βάση αυτό το γεγονός, ο ΟΑΕΔ ενδέχεται να θελήσει να εξετάσει το ενδεχόμενο υλοποίησης εναλλακτικών προσεγγίσεων για την παροχή υπηρεσιών, δηλαδή την εξωτερική ανάθεση. Αντλώντας διδάγματα από άλλες χώρες με εμπειρία στην εξωτερική ανάθεση της παροχής υπηρεσιών, ο ΟΑΕΔ θα μπορούσε να διερευνήσει τις συμπράξεις με άλλους φορείς του δημόσιου τομέα καθώς και τη δυνατότητα υπεργολαβικής ανάθεσης της παροχής υπηρεσιών σε ομάδες που απαιτούν εξειδικευμένες παρεμβάσεις. Στην επόμενη φάση της μεταρρύθμισης, ο ΟΑΕΔ θα μπορούσε να εξετάσει το ενδεχόμενο εξωτερικής ανάθεσης υπηρεσιών στον ιδιωτικό τομέα, σε μη κερδοσκοπικούς φορείς και ΜΚΟ, προκειμένου να βελτιώσει την παροχή υπηρεσιών και να ανταποκριθεί στις ανάγκες διαφόρων ομάδων της αγοράς εργασίας. Τέλος, έχει σημασία να εξεταστούν οι προκλήσεις που θέτει η πανδημία του COVID-19. Η πανδημία έχει επηρεάσει διαφορετικά τις αγορές εργασίας στις χώρες του ΟΟΣΑ. Με τη σειρά τους, οι διάφορες χώρες του ΟΟΣΑ αντέδρασαν διαφορετικά στο σοκ της πανδημίας μέσω των επιλογών πολιτικής που έκαναν. Στην Ελλάδα, η πανδημία είχε σημαντικό οικονομικό αντίκτυπο (το ΑΕΠ μειώθηκε κατά 14% κατά το δεύτερο τρίμηνο του 2020) και διάφορες συνακόλουθες επιπτώσεις σε όλες τις πτυχές της 32 οικονομικής δραστηριότητας.12 Σύμφωνα με μια πρόσφατη ανάλυση των βραχυπρόθεσμων επιπτώσεων στην αγορά εργασίας του πρώτου κύματος της πανδημίας και του περιορισμού μετακινήσεων, η προσέγγιση της Ελλάδας για τη διατήρηση θέσεων εργασίας άμβλυνε με επιτυχία την πιθανότητα μεγάλης κλίμακας ανεργίας. Ωστόσο, οι συνέπειες του περιορισμού μετακινήσεων εκδηλώθηκαν με άλλους τρόπους, ειδικότερα σε σχέση με τη δημιουργία θέσεων εργασίας.13,14 Καθώς η πανδημία επιταχύνει τις τεχνολογικές και διαρθρωτικές αλλαγές, οι στρατηγικές των χωρών θα χρειαστεί να μετατοπιστούν σε προληπτικές πολιτικές που ενισχύουν τις πιθανότητες απασχόλησης για τους άνεργους και άλλως ευάλωτους εργαζόμενους. Επιπλέον, οι επιτυχημένες προσεγγίσεις πολιτικής θα πρέπει να είναι ταιριαστές για να επιτρέψουν τη δημιουργία θέσεων εργασίας μόλις δημιουργηθούν οι προϋποθέσεις για την επανέναρξη, κατά τρόπο ώστε η ομάδα των εργαζομένων χωρίς εργασία τώρα να μην καταστεί ομάδα μακροχρόνια άνεργων εργαζομένων στην πορεία. Επιπρόσθετα, δεδομένης της φύσης αυτής της κρίσης, τα μοντέλα για τη διαχείριση των κραδασμών της αγοράς εργασίας θα πρέπει να προσφέρουν εκτεταμένη υποστήριξη όπου οι κραδασμοί επιμένουν ή επανέρχονται. Υπό το πρίσμα της πανδημίας του COVID-19, ο ΟΑΕΔ έχει αναλάβει αρκετές πρωτοβουλίες για να παράσχει εξ αποστάσεως διάφορες υπηρεσίες τόσο στους αναζητούντες εργασία όσο και στους εργοδότες. Ανεξάρτητα από τη μορφή της παροχής υπηρεσιών και πριν ο ιδιωτικός τομέας είναι σε θέση να δημιουργήσει αρκετές θέσεις εργασίας στον απόηχο του COVID, ο συνδυασμός των προγραμμάτων απασχόλησης πρέπει να προσαρμοστεί περαιτέρω για να ανταποκριθεί καλύτερα στις ανάγκες των πελατών του. Από τη μία πλευρά, η σύνθεση του άνεργου πληθυσμού που εξυπηρετείται από τον ΟΑΕΔ μπορεί να έχει αλλάξει ενώ, από την άλλη, η δημιουργία θέσεων εργασίας στον ιδιωτικό τομέα έχει συρρικνωθεί και πρέπει να ενθαρρυνθεί μέσω δημόσια προσφερόμενων προγραμμάτων. Επιπλέον, δεδομένου ότι ο ΟΑΕΔ σχεδιάζει να δώσει μελλοντικά μεγαλύτερη έμφαση στην κατάρτιση, η έκθεση παρέχει επίσης παραμέτρους για την υλοποίηση προγραμμάτων κατάρτισης, συμπεριλαμβανομένων καλών πρακτικών και νέων προσεγγίσεων για την παροχή, οι οποίες απορρέουν από τις επιπτώσεις του COVID. Εφόσον η παρακολούθηση των τάσεων της αγοράς εργασίας θεωρείται ύψιστης σημασίας, ιδίως κατά τη διάρκεια αυτής της περιόδου, ο ΟΑΕΔ θα πρέπει να εξετάσει το ενδεχόμενο τακτικής συνεργασίας με τους εργοδότες και άλλα ενδιαφερόμενα μέρη με στόχο την παρακολούθηση των εξελίξεων που δεν είναι ακόμα παρατηρήσιμες στα δεδομένα. Προτεινόμενο σχέδιο δράσης για την εφαρμογή της μεταρρύθμισης σε πανελλαδικό επίπεδο Ως συνέχεια της προηγούμενης ανάλυσης, οι δράσεις για την επέκταση της μεταρρύθμισης συνοψίζονται στον ακόλουθο Πίνακα ΕΣ-1. Τα μέτρα που έχουν καταταχθεί ως άμεσα θα μπορούσαν να εφαρμοστούν σε όλη την επικράτεια σε βραχυπρόθεσμο ορίζοντα. Όσα έχουν καταταχθεί ως μεσοπρόθεσμα 12 Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή, Γενική Διεύθυνση Οικονομικών και Χρηματοδοτικών Υποθέσεων, Enhanced Surveillance Report for Greece, Σεπτέμβριος 2020, διαθέσιμη στη διεύθυνση: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/ip134_en.pdf 13 Betcherman et al (2020), “Reacting Quickly and Protecting Jobs: The Short -Term Impacts of the Covid-19 Lockdown on the Greek Labor Market”, Covid Economics 43: 95 -136. 14 Παρόμοια με την Ελλάδα, μερικές άλλες ευρωπαϊκές χώρες έχουν προσαρμόσει τα μέτρα για να αποφύγουν τις απολύσεις. Αυτή η τακτική έρχεται σε αντίθεση με ορισμένες άλλες χώρες, όπου η ανεργία αυξήθηκε γρήγορα καθώς οι πολιτικές έδωσαν μεγαλύτερη έμφαση στην υποστήριξη του εισοδήματος και όχι στην προστασία των θέσεων εργασίας. 33 προορίζονται για δεύτερο γύρο πιλοτικών προγραμμάτων ενώ οι μακροπρόθεσμες δράσεις θα ήταν κατάλληλες προς εξέταση μετά το πέρας του δεύτερου γύρου πιλοτικών προγραμμάτων. Πίνακας ΕΣ-1: Προτεινόμενο σχέδιο δράσης για την εφαρμογή της μεταρρύθμισης σε πανελλαδικό επίπεδο Μεσοπρόθεσμα (δεύτερος γύρος πιλοτικών Άμεσα Μακροπρόθεσμα προγραμμάτων) • Λήψη απόφασης σχετικά με τον μηχανισμό μέσω του οποίου θα διεξαχθεί η συναφής ανάλυση της αγοράς εργασίας για κάθε περιοχή- • Διεξαγωγή λεπτομερούς ανάλυσης της αγοράς στόχο (σε επίπεδο κατάταξης σε 4 εργασίας εντός του ΟΑΕΔ χρησιμοποιώντας το • Διεξαγωγή ερευνών σε κατηγορίες ανά περιοχή-στόχο) σύστημα παρακολούθησης και αξιολόγησης (Π&Α) εργοδότες με στόχο την • Διασφάλιση της συστηματικής • Διεξαγωγή διαβουλεύσεων με τοπικούς εργοδότες άντληση πληροφοριών σε συνεργασίας με τον Μηχανισμό κ.λπ., οι οποίες θα πρέπει να αποτελούν μέρος της σχέση με τις τάσεις Διάγνωσης του ΕΙΕΑΔ περιγραφής της θέσης εργασίας των συμβούλων προσλήψεων και τις ανάγκες Κατανόηση των πελατών του • Επικύρωση των πορισμάτων για τη εργοδοτών των τοπικών ΚΠΑ για δεξιότητες, ΟΑΕΔ και των ζήτηση εργατικού δυναμικού μέσω • Σύσταση τοπικών συμβουλίων απασχόλησης και συμπεριλαμβανομένων των αναγκών τους διαβουλεύσεων με τοπικούς δεξιοτήτων στα οποία μπορούν να συνεργαστούν οι αναγκών για προσωπικές εργοδότες, συμπεριλαμβανομένης εργοδότες και οι υπάλληλοι από το σύστημα δεξιότητες, και εκτίμηση του της ανάπτυξης σχετικών εκπαίδευσης και κατάρτισης με στόχο τον ενδεχομένου συμπράξεων με διαδικασιών προσδιορισμό και την κάλυψη των αναγκών για το ΕΙΕΑΔ, τους κοινωνικούς • Εντοπισμός τυχόν επιπτώσεων που δεξιότητες εταίρους ή/και άλλους συνδέονται με τον COVID και δεν οργανισμούς αποτυπώνονται στα δεδομένα • Θέσπιση και πιλοτική εφαρμογή ενός συμβουλίου απασχόλησης και δεξιοτήτων στην Ελευσίνα • Προσδιορισμός σαφών γενικών και • Χαρτογράφηση των προσδιορισμένων τομέων επιμέρους στόχων για την προσλήψεων και επαγγελμάτων σε εταιρείες στο προσέγγιση των εργοδοτών μητρώο του ΟΑΕΔ, τμηματοποίηση και ιεράρχησή • Ανάλυση και εξέταση • Θέσπιση ισχυρού συντονιστικού τους και προσδιορισμός της κατάλληλης δεδομένων παρακολούθησης μηχανισμού μεταξύ της Μονάδας προσέγγισης επικοινωνίας • Αξιολόγηση των δυνατών και Μεγάλων Επιχειρήσεων στα • Συμπλήρωση της ποσοτικής ανάλυσης με αδύνατων σημείων της Επικοινωνία με κεντρικά γραφεία του ΟΑΕΔ και συστηματική επικοινωνία και σύμπραξη με στρατηγικής επικοινωνίας εργοδότες των ΚΠΑ αντιπροσωπευτικούς φορείς των εργοδοτών • Προσαρμογή και • Καθιέρωση και κοινοποίηση • Κατάρτιση προωθητικού υλικού ή υλικού επικαιροποίηση της δεικτών παρακολούθησης, συναφών καθοδήγησης για τα επιλεγμένα ΕΠΑ προσέγγισης βάσει των ρυθμίσεων παρακολούθησης και • Κατάρτιση του προσωπικού της Μονάδας Μεγάλων αναγκών υποβολής αναφορών Επιχειρήσεων και των συμβούλων εργοδοτών στην προγραμματισμένη προσέγγιση και στα νέα ΕΠΑ • Ενίσχυση του Πλαισίου Αμοιβαίων Υποχρεώσεων • Λήψη απόφασης σχετικά με τα βασικά μηνύματα για • Λήψη αποφάσεων σχετικά με τους διαύλους προσέγγισης και επικοινωνίας πρόσθετα εργαλεία αξιολόγησης • Προγραμματισμός φόρτου εργασίας για τις και τις κατευθυντήριες γραμμές για συναντήσεις των συμβούλων τους συμβούλους • Διασφάλιση ότι η ομάδα-στόχος μπορεί να • Εξέταση του ενδεχομένου • Διεύρυνση των κατευθυντήριων συμπληρώσει το ερωτηματολόγιο profiling και να συμπράξεων μεταξύ δημόσιου Επικοινωνία με γραμμών για τους συμβούλους εξασφαλίσει εύκολα μια συνάντηση με τον σύμβουλο και ιδιωτικού τομέα για αναζητούντες ώστε να ενταχθούν πληροφορίες • Παροχή επίκαιρων πληροφοριών για τα εξυπηρέτηση των ατόμων με εργασία για την αγορά εργασίας και τα τα μεγαλύτερα προβλήματα προσφερόμενα προγράμματα στους συμβούλους εμπόδια στην απασχόληση/τη πρόσληψης συμμετοχή σε ΕΠΑ • Επικαιροποίηση κριτηρίων και κατευθυντήριων γραμμών για τις παραπομπές, • Λήψη απόφασης σχετικά με το αν συμπεριλαμβανομένων πρόσθετων αξιολογήσεων είναι εφικτή η παροχή παραπομπών σε κέντρα κοινότητας • Οργάνωση επιτροπής για την έγκριση της και τοπικές υπηρεσίες για την επιλεξιμότητας και των διαδικασιών κατάρτισης κατηγορία αρ. 5 • Κατάρτιση/ αναθεώρηση αλυσίδων αποτελεσμάτων και δεικτών για κάθε πρόγραμμα. Ενσωμάτωση • Προσαρμογή των δεικτών πηγής δεδομένων, διαχωρισμού, περιοδικότητας και • Ρυθμίσεις και διεξαγωγή Παρακολούθηση κατάρτισης ώστε να ορισμού αξιολόγησης διαδικασιών συμπεριληφθούν οι αποχωρήσεις και αξιολόγηση • Προσδιορισμός πεδίων προέλευσης πληροφοριακών • Εξέταση της αξιολόγησης συμμετεχόντων πριν από την συστημάτων για τους δείκτες πιθανού αντίκτυπου ολοκλήρωση προγράμματος • Ανάθεση αρμοδιοτήτων για την παροχή δεδομένων και οποιασδήποτε γραπτής αναφοράς 34 • Ρυθμίσεις για την επανεξέταση των δεδομένων παρακολούθησης και τον προσδιορισμό της παρακολούθησης • Καθορισμός επιχειρηματικών διαδικασιών των προγραμμάτων • Αναβάθμιση πληροφοριακών συστημάτων των προγραμμάτων με στόχο την υποστήριξη των επιχειρηματικών διαδικασιών των προγραμμάτων. Τεχνολογία των • Παροχή συμβουλευτικής για την Προσδιορισμός χαρακτηριστικών που δεν μπορούν υποδομή IT με πληροφορίες για να υποστηριχθούν και εξεύρεση εναλλακτικών πληροφοριών την αγορά εργασίας λύσεων • Υλοποίηση απαραίτητων χαρακτηριστικών διαλειτουργικότητας • Εφαρμογή MIS Π&Α Εκπόνηση μορφών πινάκων εργαλείων και διευθέτηση της παροχής δεδομένων από το πληροφοριακό σύστημα • Επιλογή κατάλληλου συνδυασμού ΕΠΑ για κάθε περιοχή της πιλοτικής εφαρμογής, αφήνοντας περιθώρια για την αξιολόγηση • Ανάπτυξη των επιλεγμένων ΕΠΑ για πιλοτική εφαρμογή, αρχής γενομένης από αυτά που κρίνονται • Ανάλυση και εξέταση ύψιστης προτεραιότητας. Για κάθε ΕΠΑ αυτό θα δεδομένων παρακολούθησης περιλαμβάνει τα εξής: για τα ΕΠΑ - Δημιουργία των κανόνων σχεδιασμού • Αξιολόγηση των δυνατών και - Ανάπτυξη των επιχειρηματικών διαδικασιών αδύνατων σημείων κάθε - Θέσπιση δικαιώματος σε παροχές και προγράμματος επιδομάτων • Προσαρμογή και - Προσδιορισμός πρωταρχικών απαιτήσεων επικαιροποίηση πληροφορικής προγραμμάτων και - Καθιέρωση δεικτών παρακολούθησης και συνδυασμού προγραμμάτων, • Συμφωνία για οριζόντια ΕΠΑ που συστημάτων αναφοράς δεδομένων βάσει αναγκών μπορούν να θεσπιστούν στην • Ανάπτυξη εμπειρογνωμοσύνης - Εξορθολογισμός γενικών διαδικασιών και Ελλάδα, ανεξαρτήτως περιοχής στην εξωτερική ανάθεση διεργασιών και συνέπεια, στο μέτρο του δυνατού, • Έναρξη εσωτερικής συζήτησης για σε όλο το χαρτοφυλάκιο προγραμμάτων του κατάρτισης δεξιοτήτων από τα την ικανότητα του ΟΑΕΔ να ΟΑΕΔ διδάγματα που αντλήθηκαν παράσχει τις διάφορες υπηρεσίες από το πιλοτικό πρόγραμμα • Χαρτογράφηση ενδιαφερόμενων μερών σε περιοχές- που απαιτεί η πολύμορφη βάση της Ελευσίνας στόχους με τη δυνατότητα παροχής υπηρεσιών στην ΕΠΑ πελατών του και εναλλακτικές ομάδα κατηγορίας 5 του ΟΑΕΔ και σύναψη • Εισαγωγή μεταρρυθμισμένων προσεγγίσεις για την παροχή κινήτρων χρηματοδότησης και συμπράξεων με σχετικούς φορείς για παραπομπή ορισμένων υπηρεσιών, δηλαδή βελτιωμένης διασφάλισης ανάθεση σε τρίτους • Χαρτογράφηση του δυναμικού κατάρτισης του ποιότητας για προγράμματα ΟΑΕΔ στις περιοχές-στόχους κατάρτισης που ανατίθενται σε • Χαρτογράφηση των παρόχων εκπαίδευσης και τρίτους κατάρτισης του δημόσιου και του ιδιωτικού τομέα • Άντληση διδαγμάτων από με σκοπό την αξιολόγηση της ικανότητάς τους να άλλες χώρες με εμπειρία στην παρέχουν προγράμματα σε ομάδες πελατών άμεσης ανάθεση της παροχής προτεραιότητας· χαρτογράφηση και αξιολόγηση υπηρεσιών με στόχο τη των άλλων ενδιαφερόμενων μερών με παρόμοιο διερεύνηση της δυνατότητας τρόπο, για παράδειγμα, εμπορικά επιμελητήρια, εξωτερικής ανάθεσης περιφερειακές και δημοτικές αρχές, και μεγάλοι περαιτέρω υπηρεσιών, π.χ. εργοδότες με δυνατότητα παροχής της απαραίτητης υποστήριξη στην αναζήτηση κατάρτισης εργασίας, εντατικές μορφές • Παραγωγή βραχείας λίστας παρόχων που θα συμβουλευτικής και μπορούσαν να παράσχουν την κατάρτιση και την υποστήριξη στοχευμένη σε υποστήριξη που απαιτείται για κάθε περιοχή μειονεκτούσες ομάδες • Λήψη απόφαση για τις υπηρεσίες που ο ΟΑΕΔ είναι στην καλύτερη θέση να προσφέρει και τις υπηρεσίες που θα μπορούσαν να ανατεθούν υπεργολαβικά • Εφαρμογή συνδυασμού ΕΠΑ σε επιλεγμένη περιοχή 35 Part A: Introduction Despite significant progress over the past few years, Greece continues to face severe labor market stress. The unemployment rate fell from 27.6 percent in October 2013 to 16.4 percent in October 2020. The youth unemployment rate remains stubbornly high, at 32.9 percent (data as of October 2020 for the 15-24 age group).15 Moreover, the long-term nature of unemployment is the most severe labor market challenge in Greece; 70.1 percent of the unemployed have been unemployed for 12 months or more (2019 average).16 The pervasiveness of long-term unemployment means that many job-seekers have suffered a protracted lack of contact with the world of work and thus risk losing (or, in the case of labor market entrants, never gaining) relevant skills and work habits. These challenges underline the importance of effective active labor market programs (ALMPs). Effective ALMPs are central to support the unemployed and most importantly the long- term unemployed. As such, a menu of ALMPs that provide both work experience and training can promote attachment to the workforce, provide or update skills in sectors and occupations that show renewed dynamism, and help boost effective labor supply as the economy recovers. Since it will take time for the private sector to recover in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, public employment programs also need to create temporary jobs through public works programs as well as encourage private sector job creation through wage subsidies. Greece is in the process of reforming its ALMPs to better serve jobseekers and employers. The Greek Manpower Employment Organization (OAED) has been piloting elements of a new ALMP model in three municipalities covered by the local employment agency of Elefsina. Key elements include systematic segmentation of jobseekers, increased counseling capacity, a more diverse offering of programs, and monitoring of beneficiaries. The pilot has provided a basis for learning17 and has offered lessons18 for planning a second phase of the ALMP reform. The objective of World Bank technical assistance was to support the Government of Greece to improve the design, delivery and monitoring and evaluation of ALMPs, including through implementation of a pilot. The first phase of the technical assistance started in November 2017 and the second phase in February 2019. There are two components in this technical assistance: the first is focused on the design and implementation of the new ALMP model, and the second on the information base for ALMPs, including monitoring and evaluation. As part of the first phase, a Concept Note laid out reform options for the pilot, with an emphasis on 3 ALMPs (public works, training plus work experience, and wage subsidies). The Concept Note also discussed the role of job counsellors, the importance of a menu-based approach, and potential selection criteria for the location of the pilot. The authorities used the note as a vehicle to inform their decisions on the pilot. Based on 15 OECD (2021), "Labour: Labour market statistics", Main Economic Indicators (database), https://doi.org/10.1787/data-00046-en (accessed on 05 March 2021). 16 OECD (2021), "Labour Market Statistics: Unemployment by duration: incidence", OECD Employment and Labour Market Statistics (database), https://doi.org/10.1787/data-00322-en (accessed on 05 March 2021). 17 World Bank (2019): Technical Notes on ALMP Reform Process: Early reflections on first phase of ALMP reform (Elefsina pilot), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012 and World Bank (2020): Process Evaluation Technical Report, Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012. 18 For example, World Bank (2020): Technical Notes on ALMP Reform Process: Incentives for ALMP participation, Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012. 36 these decisions, the Bank supported the definition of pilot design and operational parameters through a Program Document, which also covered information systems and the monitoring framework underpinning the ALMPs. Other outputs covered: the functional and technical specifications for the training program MIS; ways to improve and/or integrate the existing information systems of ALMPs; and technical requirements for the M&E MIS system and options for its development. In the second phase, support from the Bank team was designed to be flexible in order to respond to issues arising during pilot implementation and to advance planning for the following stage of reforms. A Concept Note proposed a roadmap of priorities and sequencing of actions in the ALMP reform process. Four technical notes were produced, two on issues identified during the pilot (employer engagement and incentives for ALMP participation) and two with a view to the reform scale-up (skills gap analysis and suggested ALMP mix and target groups in selected local labor markets). Other outputs focused on: (i) monitoring and assessment of the pilot (dashboards, monitoring reports, process evaluation, and options for impact evaluation); (ii) hands-on assistance for information systems improvements; and (iii) strengthening the use of information on labor demand and skills needs for ALMP design. The goals of this report are to document the progress and the lessons learned in the ALMP reform process so far, and to support the next phases of the reform, make practical recommendations with regard to ALMP management and design, and suggest an action plan of next steps. The report is structured as follows. It begins with a discussion of the reform objectives and experience, and then in order to address remaining challenges, it turns to a description of the processes, information and policies required for successful ALMPs. Key issues include the importance of understanding the labor market and the characteristics of jobseekers, how to engage with employers and jobseekers, what IT infrastructure is necessary, and the arrangements for monitoring and evaluation. The report then provides proposals for ALMPs for the next stage of the reform in areas of interest to the government, including wage subsidies and training. The final section provides an action plan of next steps for the broader roll-out of the reform.19 19 The report is complemented by a series of annexes; these include a list of World Bank outputs, details on the target group of the Elefsina pilot and the labor market results of the pilot, the timeline of the reform process, detailed IT recommendations and proposed next steps in designing new training and wage subsidy programs and upgrading the existing ones. 37 Part B: Reform Objectives and Progress 1. Reform objectives While the potential demand for active labor market programs (ALMPs) in Greece is high, there are a number of areas in the ALMP system of the country that would benefit from improvements. First, spending on ALMPs has risen but remains low given needs. In 2018 (latest data available from the European Commission), Greece spent 0.7 percent of GDP on ALMPs, or less than half the EU average.20 When these figures are scaled per unemployed worker, Greece’s spending is even lower relative to the EU average. Second, the effectiveness and efficiency of ALMPs are uncertain since there has been no monitoring and evaluation framework to take account of the system’s performance. Moreover, capacity is weak: OAED has been suffering from a shortage of job counselors, limiting its ability to provide individualized counseling services to its large number of clients or to reach out to the employer community. Finally, ALMP delivery has been ad hoc, with a series of distinct time- bound programs as opposed to a menu of continuously available interventions that clients can be oriented towards based on their needs. Overall, the relative importance of programs has been changing. Direct job creation programs (Kinofelis) were introduced during the past crisis, then lost their prominence during 2019, but picked up again in 2020.21 Faced with severe labor market challenges, Greece has initiated a reform of ALMPs. The foundations for a more effective ALMP system were laid out in the Strategic Framework for the redesign of ALMPs in April 2018.22 The Framework set the broad directions for a shift from the intermittent availability of ALMPs with open application by potential eligible participants, towards what the authorities term the “open framework”, consistent with European practices (i.e., referrals by job counselors from a menu of programs continuously available).23 The Framework also proposed specific reforms in public works, wage subsidy, training, youth and entrepreneurship programs. Increasing ALMP spending to bring it in line with European levels is difficult given fiscal constraints. Therefore, priority was placed on the most vulnerable groups, including older long-term unemployed with low skills, youths and beneficiaries of the Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI). The Framework identified the specific measures needed to realize these reforms, such as hiring additional counselors24 as well as the constraints posed by high levels of unemployment and low domestic demand in Greece. There was a need to pilot the approach before applying it more broadly. Also, the OAED Board of Directors approved in March 2018 a framework of “mutual obligations” for individuals registering as unemployed with OAED and for OAED itself. In addition to defining normative aspects, such as the 20 The figures include spending on labor market services, training, employment incentives, supported employment and rehabilitation, direct job creation, start-up incentives, out-of-work income maintenance and support, and early retirement. The source is : European Commission - Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion (DG EMPL); LMP_EXPSUMM available at https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/empl/redisstat/databrowser/view/LMP_EXPSUMM/default/table?lang=en&c ategory=lmp_expend 21 Calls for Kinofelis were launched in March 2019 (for 8,933 positions) and in June 2020 (for 36,500 positions). Several calls were launched in 2017 and 2018 with around 74,000 positions. 22 https://www.ypakp.gr/uploads/docs/11364.pdf 23 So far, ALMPs in Greece have been implemented through single calls that produce all placements at a single point in time for the year, each effective for certain target groups (regularly distinguished by age), and with different objectives and implementation arrangements. 24 That is because the “open framework” deviates from an open call to applications by introducing the role of the counselor who is responsible for referring the beneficiary to the ALMPs that best suit her/him. 38 activities that qualify as active job search and the definition of a “suitable” job, the directive sets out a list of specific obligations of the unemployed. These include: cooperating with counsellors to complete the individual action plan (IAP), actively searching for work and following-up on actions agreed to in the IAP, accepting suitable jobs and the need to update the IAP if a person stays unemployed for 18 months. The objective of the pilot was to begin testing the application of the new ALMP model in three municipalities in West Attica, including: ▪ A menu of programs available with upgraded program designs for existing programs (wage subsidies, public works/Kinofelis) and a new training program (demand-responsive training) informed by labor market data (see Box 1 on the Diagnosis Mechanism); and ▪ Strengthened provision and role of counseling, including profiling and drafting of individual actions plans (IAPS), in referring the unemployed to ALMPs ▪ Establishment of a monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system to facilitate timely and systematic availability of data on ALMPs; and ▪ Supporting development of the information systems underpinning the operation of ALMPS, provision of counseling services, and program management and management. Box 1: Greece’s Labor Market Diagnosis Mechanism A new skills diagnosis mechanism has been operating in Greece since 2016 under the National Institute of Labour & Human Resources (NILHR), an agency of the Ministry of Labor. The Mechanism systematically draws, processes and analyzes primary data from four major national databases such as the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), the National Employment Registry (ERGANI), the Public Employment Agency (OAED) and the General Commercial Registry (GEMI) as well as secondary data from various surveys and studies. The most important output of the Mechanism is its annual report in the format of an interactive dashboard (https://lmd.eiead.gr/). The report contains information on the Greek labour market, on salaried employment, on registered unemployment as well as knowledge, competences and skills, based on data from ESCO. In general, using evidence-based data, the Mechanism aims to: 1. produce results on the dynamism of professions, industries, and sectors at national and local levels; 2. meet the demand for early identification of short and medium-term trends in labour market needs, both at national and at a regional level; 3. provide the labour market information required to inform evidence-based policy making; and 4. address the need for updated, concrete and regular information on skills trends, especially as an input for designing VET and employment policies. The Mechanism has also recently published dashboards with the analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Greek labor market at national, regional and local levels (https://lmd.eiead.gr/covid19/). 39 Reform progress The pilot was launched in November 2018, targeting those aged 45 and over who were registered as unemployed for at least 6 months in the 3 municipalities covered by the Elefsina employment office (KPA2).25 The 3 municipalities, namely Elefsina, Asporpyrgos, and Mandra, are located in the region of West Attica. A large part of the area is an industrial zone, where storage warehouses, metal recycling facilities, logistics handlers, wholesalers, small construction companies and other industrial businesses operate. The Elefsina pilot was scheduled to run until the end of 2020. While the initial interest from targeted jobseekers in Elefsina was high, the arrival of additional counselors was considerably delayed. In addition, delays in design and business process decisions for training held up the start of this ALMP, development of its MIS as well as the launch of Kinofelis, which the authorities did not want to start before training was under way. Take-up of wage subsidies was affected by the few job vacancies posted by employers. Available data26 on the results of the Elefsina pilot shows that the take-up of the pilot offer was approximately 26 percent. In spite of delays in the arrival of additional counselors and in design and business process decisions for training, out of the 3617 individuals eligible to partake in the pilot (as of September 2019), through March 2020, 948 individuals underwent the profiling exercise, met with a counselor and agreed on an Individual Action Plan (IAP). This translates to a take-up rate of around 26 percent. Among the individuals who met a counselor through October 2020, 900 were referred to training and 80 individuals entered wage subsidy positions. Out of those referred to training, 840 received a training voucher and 781 activated them and became trainees. 119 people did not follow up on training referrals and thus did not participate in any pilot program. The number of training referrals changed only slightly between March and October 2020 (893 vs. 900), suggesting that most probably there were not many additional individuals who entered the pilot after March 2020. Through October 2020, 80 profiled individuals entered wage subsidy positions. The majority of wage subsidies positions were covered closer to October 2020. In fact, 38 wage subsidies were recorded up until March 2020, 6 individuals entered wage subsidies until August 2020, while the rest of the entries took place in September 2020 and after. Considering the timing, these placements are likely attributed to the Greek Government’s response to COVID-19, as in mid-2020 pilot activities were winding down. A first monitoring report covering the period November 2018 to March 2020 was prepared based on monitoring dashboards developed for the pilot. A second monitoring report covering the whole pilot that includes information on labor market outcomes of those in the target group is under preparation. Annex II provides more details on the target group. A process evaluation conducted as part of the pilot (supplemented by other inputs) identified both strengths and weaknesses (Box 2). 25 The choice of the pilot area was guided by criteria, such as low seasonal employment, accessibility from Athens, capacity of the local economy to generate jobs, capacity of local KPA2 office, and presence of training institutes (KEKs). The choice of target group was consistent with prior analysis showing that the four largest groups of jobless in Greece shared features of long-term detachment from the labor market, among which were older, long- term unemployed with low skills. 26 Updated data on characteristics of pilot participants after March 2020 was not available. 40 Box 2: Achievements and challenges of the Elefsina pilot The experience of the pilot can be divided into aspects that went well (“strengths”) and aspects that show room for improvement (“weaknesses”) (see Figure below). The pilot met the objective to strengthen the role of counseling. Profiling went well. The option to fill out the profiling questionnaire in the KPA2 reduced a potential barrier to participation. Additional effort is needed to enable counselors to explain better the assessments and other tools to the unemployed and to incorporate labor market information, discussion of employment obstacles and motivation for training into the appointment. On the objective to upgrade ALMP design, significant progress was made to streamline front-end and payment procedures for wage subsidies. Remaining challenges include enabling the option for firms to submit documents online instead of visiting the KPA2 and streamlining OAED administrative procedures, both of which require modifications in the Information System of OAED. However, the most critical flaw for wage subsidies was lack of an explicit strategy to work with employers to generate vacancies. Training incorporated several innovations. Assessment tools guided participants to remedial basic skills training and recognized prior learning. Other positives were the flexible design of basic skills training, selection of specialties according to local labor market needs, reasonable choice among providers for a few specialties, and more than sufficient internship placement offers. However, the level of training allowances provided a strong incentive to participate, whether it was the best option for increasing employability or not. Training costs were high, with the internship representing a large chunk of the costs and difficult to cut short even for a job placement. There was a shortfall on the objective of making a menu of ALMPs available on a continuous basis. The pilot consisted almost entirely of training, which was unavailable for the first 8 months. Kinofelis (public works) was eliminated from the menu and wage subsidy placements were few. 41 Progress on the objective of strengthening ALMP monitoring and evaluation was limited. Extracting data from the OAED core information system (OPS) proved challenging: timely data was either unavailable, internally inconsistent or could be extracted only through time-consuming manual methods. The performance was better for training since it uses a different platform (DRTP MIS). Gaps in monitoring data reduced the ability to track progress and identify and remedy problems during the pilot. Drawing from the lessons of Elefsina, several improvements are needed to support the roll- out of the new ALMP model. Three are considered to be most important. ▪ First, OAED needs to engage more with employers, especially to serve the long-term unemployed, as well as orient the types of firms, vacancies, wage subsidy and internship offers to cater to their characteristics. ▪ Second, training design should be adjusted to emphasize the goal of employment, rather than provision of a safety net. ▪ Third, the OAED information system must be made functional to enable it to support the operation of improved ALMPs, including timely and automatic generation of monitoring indicators. Following up on these findings, the World Bank produced two technical notes. One note made recommendations for effectively engaging with employers based on comprehensive analysis of the labor market. The other note reviewed the incentives and disincentives that benefits available to jobseekers may create.27 The analysis covered a range of situations (ALMP participation, formal and informal work) for workers with a range of profiles. The note also compared the cost of the training allowance and overall cost of the training program in Elefsina with international practice. It made recommendations for changing incentives of training participants, training providers, and firms. Information system topics were followed up through the continuous, hand-on support to IT improvements28. These notes along with an overview of a suggested ALMP mix for the extension of the ALMP reform are the basis for the recommendations to roll out the broader reform. Descriptive analysis shows that most of the target group have not integrated into the labor market. However, program participants were more likely than non-participants to have found a job29. Almost 70 percent of all those who were eligible for the pilot in February 2019 were unemployed in October 2020 (Table 1). Only 12 percent were (formally wage) employed in that 27 See World Bank (2020): Strategy for effective engagement with employers across the scale-up regions (Output A.2 – Technical Note #3), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012 and World Bank (2020): Incentives for ALMP participation (Output A.3 – Technical Note #2), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012, respectively. 28 See World Bank (2019, 2020): Quarterly progress notes on support to IT improvements for ALMP M&E system Output B.2), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012. Six of these progress notes report the activities and results of strengthening the underlying IT systems for better monitoring and evaluating mechanisms for ALMPs under the pilot, with the technical support of the World Bank. 29 Tables with detailed analysis are included in Annex II “Elefsina results”. 42 month.30 While these outcomes are not very favorable, they are not surprising. The target group for the pilot was a difficult group to integrate into the labor market in the first place. Moreover, starting in March 2020, the Greek employment situation has been badly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, employment outcomes were more positive for individuals participating in the pilot (defined as receiving an individual action plan) compared to non-participants. Table 1 shows that pilot participants had significantly higher employment rates and were less likely to be in the OAED unemployment registry at the end of the pilot. Table 1: Comparison of post-program employment and unemployment outcomes for pilot participants and non-participant All eligible Participants Non-participants individuals (n=1050) (n=2373) (n=3423) Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Employed at some point after 319 30.4 354 14.9 673 19.7 unemployment Employed in 177 16.9 236 9.9 413 12.1 October 2020 Unemployed in 680 64.8 1698 71.6 2378 69.5 October 2020 However, these differences do not completely reflect the impact of the pilot because it is likely that participants were more employable to begin with. It would be expected that the pilot would be more attractive to individuals who were employable and were motivated to find employment. With the data available from OAED’s management information system, the two groups can be compared in terms of observable individual characteristics. The differences are fairly modest, but participants were younger, slightly better educated, and less likely to identify their specialty in areas, such as elementary occupations and plant and machinery work, where employment opportunities are scarce for this demographic group (Table AII-2). Also, participants were more likely to be male than non- participants. Given higher employment rates for males in Greece, this may be a relevant difference in the two sub-samples. When controlling for individual characteristics using propensity score matching, pilot participants still had more favorable employment outcomes. Given that those who participated in the pilot were different from those who did not, a matching technique was used to construct a “treatment” (participant) and a “control” (non-participant) group. Pilot participants were matched to non-participants based on observable characteristics collected by OAED, such as age, gender, duration of eligibility31, occupation, education, and municipality. A probit function was then used to estimate the differences in employment and unemployment outcomes for participants compared to matched non-participants (i.e., with very similar characteristics). The result was that having had an individual 30 Employment data comes from ERGANI, the national employment registry managed by the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs. ERGANI does not include unregistered or informal employment, or self-employment. 31 Eligibility is defined as the number of days the person was eligible for the pilot (as per their age and time registered with OAED) between November 12th, 2018 and December 17, 2020. 43 action plan increased the likelihood of being employed in October 2020 by roughly 3 percentage points (Table AII-3). The likelihood of being in the OAED unemployment registry in October 2020 was 5-6 percentage points lower for the pilot participants (Table AII-4). All estimates were statistically significant at the 10 percent level or less. These estimates are consistent with a conclusion that the pilot had positive impacts, but they do not demonstrate a conclusive causal effect. Ideally, the causal effect of a program should be determined by a rigorous impact evaluation that is designed as part of the intervention, as briefly explained in section 4.5.2. The ex-post analysis presented is only able to compare selected employment outcomes between pilot participants and non-participants, taking into account various observable individual characteristics. However, while the technique closely matched the two groups on these characteristics, it does not take into account unobserved characteristics, such as motivation to work and to acquire employable skills, personal networks, and “soft” skills. These attributes would almost certainly be associated with the likelihood of finding a job and may well be more prevalent in the group that chose to have an individual action plan. A more rigorous methodology would have taken this into account but was not possible ex-post. 3. Reform outlook Building on the Elefsina pilot, the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (MoLSA) decided in early 2019 that the path toward country-wide change should include a second round of pilots at a larger scale in more diverse settings. A concept note for extending the ALMP reform was prepared in the first half of 2019.32 As part of this second round of pilots, the new delivery model, as well as the menu of ALMPs that were tested in the Elefsina pilot, would be further adapted and tested in different parts of the country that reflect diverse economic and social conditions, with different target groups. This second round of pilots was initially planned to run between the second quarter of 2020 and the end of 2021. Some aspects were seen as important and ready to be scaled-up nationwide in parallel with the ongoing pilot phases. These included strengthening the provision of counseling (including profiling) to the unemployed, enhanced monitoring and evaluation, more intense engagement and cooperation with employers, and better utilization of labor market information. Based on lessons of the two pilot phases and other ALMP reform developments, the nationwide roll-out of the new ALMP model was to begin in 2022. However, the second round of pilots was delayed first due to the July 2019 elections that delayed decisions regarding the reform extension and then due to the outbreak and consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Annex III depicts the timeline of the reform process. OAED is currently considering a second round of pilots with a focus on three types of areas, including areas in transition33, areas with high seasonal employment, and urban areas with high unemployment. At this point, the second phase of the ALMP reform is expected to begin in 2021, which will provide an opportunity for continued testing of new approaches, tools, and programs, covering additional regions and target groups. Following the evaluation of these second-round pilots, 32 See World Bank (2019): Conceptual Note for Scaling up the ALMP Reform (Output A.1), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012. 33 Examples of transitional economies include the transition of a region from fossil fuel dependency to cleaner types of energy, closure of mines (other than coal), shutdown of a major manufacturing sector or significant for the local economy plant, etc. This will usually lead to significant employment transitions for affected workers, to other jobs, to unemployment, or inactivity. 44 the reform is expected to be rolled out nationally. This next phase of the ALMP reform. together with the proposals described in the subsequent sections of this report are closely aligned with several elements of Greece’s National Recovery and Resilience Plans, a prerequisite for accessing funds in the Next Generation EU COVID-19 recovery facility (See Box 3). In addition to the second-round pilots, OAED is considering rolling-out some elements of the ALMP reform in the near future. In fact, some of the elements that worked well in Elefsina have already been embedded in OAED’s offering, including profiling of newly registered unemployed and streamlined wage subsidy procedures. Other elements of the ALMP reform are currently under consideration for implementation in certain regions that are undergoing structural transformation, such as Kozani. The Greek authorities also envision a reform of the contents and delivery of the skilling, reskilling and upskilling programs offered by OAED as part of the general effort to reform and modernize the vocational education and training (VET) system.34 For this reason, the second section of Part D is particularly focused on the implementation of training programs. Part E includes a proposed action plan of next steps in the ALMP reform for OAED’s consideration, divided into actions that could be taken immediately, medium-term actions that could correspond to second-round pilots, and longer-term actions for a national roll-out of the reform. 34 In line with the Strategic Directions for Greece’s Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF) Plan, and the recommendations contained in the Pissarides' Committee report. 45 Box 3: The National Plan for Recovery and Sustainability "Greece 2.0" and the Pissarides committee plan and their focus on training As part of the COVID-19 recovery mechanism called Next Generation EU (NGEU), all EU Member States were called to formulate National Recovery and Resilience to address immediate economic and social damage brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, to be financed through the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), the European Social Fund (ESF) and other sources. The National Recovery and Sustainability Plan "Greece 2.0", presented recently by the Greek government is a roadmap with 170 projects, investments and reforms. It is based on 4 pillars, the digital transition of the State and the Economy, the increase of employment and social cohesion, the green economy, and the launch of productive activity. It aims to increase the GDP by 7 percentage points until 2026 but also to create around 200,000 jobs, especially for the young people. The grant allocation for Greece from the RRF is nearly 20 billion euros, one of the highest allocations on a per capita basis. The plan largely builds on the priorities and directions set out in the Pissarides committee recovery plan. The Pissarides committee plan, whose final version was published in November 2020, includes recommendations in a number of areas, including infrastructure and transport, the agri-food sector, manufacturing, tourism, the social protection system, the utilization of public property and export support. The plan lays out actions aimed at boosting incomes through improved productivity, increased labor force participation, more investments as well as increased export activity and extroversion. The importance of the ALMP reform and the proposals outlined in this report are in line with the recommendations and the broader context of both the National Recovery and Sustainability Plan and the Pissarides committee plan. One of their main priorities is the increase in sustained employment and labour productivity through the enhancement of human capital. To that end, both plans foresee: i. the reform of active and passive labour market policies enhancing job creation and labour market activation. In particular the following are highlighted: a. design of new programs such as work experience programs and special employment programs for areas in transition, areas with deindustrialization problems and areas with high seasonality; b. improvement of the coverage and fair distribution of the unemployment benefits offered by OAED through an incentives-compatible framework disincentivizing inactivity and encouraging job search and employment-enhancing participation in upskilling/reskilling programmes; c. modernization of the services offered by the local employment offices with a focus on the enhancement of counseling services and matching; and d. upgrade and digitization of OAED and its services. ii. the radical review and modernization of the education system and the vocational education and training (VET) system with a focus on skills. Indicatively this includes: a. reform of the governance of upskilling-reskilling training provision which, based on an incentives-compatible remuneration system, promotes the adoption and scaling up of best practices; b. reform of the contents and delivery of the skilling, reskilling and upskilling programmes offered by OAED; c. increasing the appeal and labour market effectiveness of the VET system for young people; 46 system of OAED; and d. reform of the dual apprenticeship e. investments in digital transformation and digitalization of education, including VET. The ALMP reform can be anchored in a theory of change shown in Figure 1 below, illustrating the situation motivating the need for reform, the interventions, outputs and outcomes of the Elefsina pilot, and the reform interventions and expected outcomes that lay ahead. The need for ALMP reform in Greece is driven by various factors including the pervasiveness of high unemployment and the identified gaps of the Greek system relative to European practices. Following the guidelines set out in the Strategic Framework for the Redesign of ALMPs, the Elefsina pilot and its underlying interventions were implemented as a first step towards a more effective ALMP system. The implementation of pilot activities not only led to a set of important outputs, but also revealed the strengths and weaknesses of the first phase of the reform and provided lessons to inform its subsequent stages. In addition, the first phase of the reform generated a set of short-term outcomes. The identified outcomes are mapped according to the time required for them to be achieved. Short-term outcomes are already in place or expected to be observable soon, as the relevant actions are currently being implemented nationwide. The intermediate outcomes are expected to be achieved after the implementation of the second-round pilots, which will be applied in different regional labor markets and for different target groups. The national roll-out of the reform aims to generate the longer-term desired outcomes; these outcomes will take the country closer to the achievement of the vision of the ALMP reform i.e. better employment results for ALMP participants. Figure 1: ALMP Reform Theory of Change 47 Part C: Recommendations for Management of ALMPs OAED is interested in a framework that supports the ALMP reform. Figure 1 offers such a framework, with a focus on reform aspects that were the center of attention of the World Bank technical assistance. Other important areas, such as, for example, human resources management, performance management, or budget allocation, have not been part of this technical assistance, but have been covered under OAED’s reengineering framework. This section of the report, Part C, focuses on reform principles related to the management of ALMPs. These reforms principles are: including a thorough understanding of OAED’s clientele, engagement with both employers and jobseekers, aspects related to monitoring and evaluation of programs, and information technology. The following section, Part D, reviews the current ALMP programming at OAED and proposes upgraded and new programs, mapped against five broad groups of jobseekers and three labor market models. Part D also proposes detailed next steps in preparing for new wage subsidy and training programs, as well as additional considerations for the implementation of programs. Figure 2: ALMP framework 48 1 Understanding OAED’s customers and labor demand Jobseekers and employers constitute the core customers of public employment services. On the one hand, jobseekers come to the public employment agency to receive social benefits or seek services that can help them find employment. Employed people who might want to look for another job could also be viewed as potential customers. Employers can be either clients looking for support in recruiting suitable workers (including through wage subsidy programs) or partners providing on-the-job work placements as part of formal training programs, internship positions, or opportunities for hard-to-place jobseekers and new graduates. Other stakeholders who can offer support and partnerships with OAED include private training providers, private employment services, employer representatives, municipalities, labor unions, and NGOs. This section is organized as follows. The first subsection focuses on labor demand, in particular on what analysis needs to be conducted. Three “types” of labor markets that are useful for the analysis have been identified and are discussed. Jobseeker analysis is covered in the second subsection. The third subsection presents other sources of labor market intelligence. Finally, the fourth subsection includes recommendations on concrete next steps in labor market analysis for OAED to consider going forward. 1.1 Analyzing labor market conditions and needs Analysis of labor market conditions and trends is the foundation for effective public employment services. Analyzing labor market data is vital for public employment agencies for two main reasons: 1. to identify and understand current and future hiring opportunities as well as labor demand trends more generally; 2. to make evidence-based decisions on employment policy and programs according to the needs of the labor market. Labor market analysis can be conducted at different levels i.e. national, regional, or even more granular geographic units, depending on the focus of the public employment agency’s interventions. A detailed labor demand analysis, irrespective of the geographic focus, comprises the following components: • Current snapshot. This component would focus on the labor market’s most recent situation and would cover hirings (job creation), separations (all forms), net hirings (net job creation, i.e. jobs created minus jobs lost), employment levels and information on average wage per sector. This data should be analyzed at the aggregate level and further disaggregated by gender, age group, sector of economic activity, occupation and location35. Other disaggregations, especially for hirings, would include firm size (in terms of the number of employees), type of contracts (permanent or temporary), and contractual status (full time, part-time, rotational).36 • Trends. This component would focus on labor market trends in order to assess how the national, regional, or local labor demand has evolved over the last 1-3 years and to estimate how it is expected to evolve over the course of the short-to-medium run (within the next couple of years). Trends can be reported either in terms of quantities (e.g, number of jobs created, number of separations) 35 For instance, region or locality for a national analysis and regional unit, municipality or sub-municipality for local studies. 36 The step-by-step analysis is presented in the Excel template that accompanies World Bank (2020): Strategy for effective engagement with employers across the scale-up regions (Output A.2 – Technical Note #3), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012. The sheet “Demand” of the Excel file presents an overview of all the steps, the last column includes hyperlinks to the corresponding indicative examples, with each of these examples being presented separately on the following Excel sheets. 49 or in terms of growth rates (e.g., percentage change over the previous month, quarter or year) for both sectors and occupations (especially in terms of hirings). Both components would require the use of data at the highest degree of sectoral and occupational disaggregation available. The 4-digit level of classification of occupations and sectors would provide a more accurate picture of the sectors and occupations in demand in the area being analyzed. Starting from these findings, OAED would need to carry out various rounds of validations and consulations with employers to be able to then design and offer training programs that match the labor demand. The primary source of data on labor demand in Greece is the Information System of the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (ERGANI). This is a rich database with information on employment flows (hirings and separations) and terms of employment. Most of this information is updated on a daily basis. ERGANI publishes monthly reports containing aggregated data on MoLSA’s website. More disaggregated information (mostly in terms of sector and occupation) is available through the Diagnostic Mechanism of the National Institute of Labour and Human Resources (EIEAD), a body operating under the supervision of MoLSA. To generate a detailed analysis of local labor demand, OAED could consider two potential options, both of which would allow for analysis of ERGANI data: • Conducting the analysis in-house. This choice would require additional human resources, a dedicated department and a plan for systematic data analysis on a regular basis. The M&E system to be housed in OAED, currently at the early stages of development, could be the home for this analysis. Interoperability with other systems currently in place and most importantly with ERGANI would provide OAED the ability to generate the needed disaggregations automatically. • Systematic collaboration with EIEAD. Since EIEAD’s diagnostic mechanism is already in place, OAED and EIEAD could consider the possibility of extending their cooperation to also include EIEAD’s inputs on the needed labor market information, including disaggregated results, regularly and systematically according to detailed specifications. Regardless of the option chosen, this analysis would benefit from complementary employer surveys and consultations. Local employer surveys or consultations can be a useful complement to administrative data sources. These surveys can validate labor demand trends identified by the administrative data. In addition, they can ask employers about future hiring intentions that are not available through ERGANI or other data sources but is beneficial information for programming plans. OAED has some experience in implementing such surveys. Within the framework of the Elefsina pilot, OAED and EIEAD implemented an employer survey to identify their labor needs and most importantly to validate the list of pilot training specialties previously identified through the analysis of ERGANI data. The analysis described above is applicable to all local labor markets. However, additional analysis can be useful depending on the specific nature of the labor market in question. OAED has expressed interest in three models of labor markets. These include large urban areas with high unemployment rates, labor markets in transition because of the decline of traditional sources of employment, and labor markets with a high degree of seasonal activity37. While the first of these labor markets can be analyzed using the general approach described above, transitional and seasonal labor markets call for additional analysis. 37Seasonality refers to periodic fluctuations in certain areas with business and employment cycles that are tied to a certain season. A season may refer to a calendar season such as summer or winter, or it may refer to a commercial season such as the holiday season. 50 Labor markets in transition are defined by structural economic changes resulting in substantial job losses and the disappearance of traditional job creation sources38. Examples of such changes include mine or plant closures, which could alter the landscape of the local labor market completely. Furthermore, economic spillovers from these closures may extend to other industries and to the whole economic activity of the relevant regions. For a public employment agency, it would be important to identify and understand the nature and the implications of these changes as early as possible in order to be able to design interventions and services tailored to the needs of the affected workforce. Since the demand for labor from other existing industries might not be sufficient for absorbing the affected workers, the labor demand analysis should necessarily include neighboring regions as well as accessible urban centers (in the case of rural areas). In addition, regions where such types of mines or plants are still active might be potential markets to absorb workers with relevant experience and skills. Collecting labor market information and particularly information on new vacancies from these areas would inform the local KPA’s list of placements and the guidelines of counselors. In certain cases, national strategies to moderate the detrimental effects of such structural changes include the promotion and implementation of large investments in the affected areas. These investments can make an important contribution to the recovery of the affected local economy and provide a source for the generation of new jobs. OAED should be engaged in discussions with national, regional and local key stakeholders and early on collect information on specialties and skills that will be demanded for these new jobs. Understanding the patterns of the seasonal labor markets is necessary for the public employment agency to provide useful services. In Greece’s seasonal labor markets, particularly in the islands, there are typically spikes in recruitments and separations in April and October. These patterns also describe the seasonal variations for self-employed individuals. Developing a seasonal calendar adapted to the specific island context could help OAED, and particularly the local KPA2, analyze the “normal” seasonal labor market patterns throughout the year. The next step would be to identify sectors and occupations that recruit outside the tourism period and target firms active in these sectors depending on the month. Another useful instrument in seasonal settings would be to schedule local labor market surveys and consultations with the aim of collecting qualitative information. These surveys should target both the tourism and non-tourism sectors. In addition, the timing for the surveys should take into account the seasonal patterns of the local economy. The early identification of the most important local stakeholders to take part in these surveys is critical. A list of such stakeholders includes employers, sectoral employer organizations, regional authorities, local chambers, individuals working in different sectors, local trade unions, and others. Finally, the labor demand analysis in seasonal labor markets should also include the analysis of neighboring areas where job opportunities might exist during periods when local unemployment is high because of seasonality. 38In the case of Greece, areas such as the Western Macedonia Region and Megalopolis in the Peloponnese, due to their dependence on coal, will likely face a high social impact if a share of the currently active population becomes unemployed due to the decommissioning of power plants and mines. See World Bank (2020) ”A Road Map for a Managed Transition of Coal-Dependent Regions in Western Macedonia” for more detail on the Florina -Kozani area. 51 1.2 Understanding jobseeker characteristics In addition to analyzing labor market conditions and needs, the profile of the unemployed needs to be analyzed.39 This is a determining factor in designing and implementing programs and services that are tailored to the characteristics and needs of those registered at OAED. A detailed labor supply analysis for any local labor market can include three layers of analysis: • Basic statistics. These include categorization of the registered unemployed by gender, age group, length of unemployment, educational level, self-declared occupation, work-seeking status (jobseekers versus non-jobseekers), receipt of unemployment benefit, and receipt of SSI. • Relational statistics (cross-tabulations). These are basic statistics with further disaggregation. For instance, interesting relational statistics include: registered unemployed by gender and age group, education level by age group, unemployment duration by age group, distribution of age groups by unemployment duration, unemployment benefit receipt by age group, registered unemployed by SSI receipt and unemployment duration, most frequent self- reported occupations among the unemployed, most frequent self-reported occupations among the unemployed by gender, and most frequent self-reported occupations among the unemployed by age group.40 • Profiles of specific jobseeker categories (detailed profiles). Finally, analyzing unemployment profiles among specific categories of interest is important, especially for targeted interventions. These profiles could be especially useful for groups such as women, youth (18-29), short-term (<6 months), long-term (>12 months) and very long-term (>24 months) unemployed, low-educated unemployed and GMI recipients registered with OAED.41 The main source of data on the registered unemployed is OAED’s registry (OPS). Since this registry is updated on a daily basis, the relevant analysis should make use of the most recent data available (registry’s latest snapshot). It would also be useful to make year-over-year comparisons and look at short-term (e.g., monthly, quarterly) as well as recent trends since these might signal a need for specific policy responses. For instance, a potential high inflow of newly registered unemployed in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic might lead to significant shifts in the composition of the unemployed population served by the OAED. The focus of the analysis depends on whether programs are to be offered nationally or with regional variations. If potential interventions are targeted to specific populations nationwide, the analysis described above should be conducted at the central level. If the focus is on local labor markets, the analysis should be conducted at the local level, usually at the regional unit or even the municipal level. For certain contexts, the aforementioned analysis should be complemented by additional information on jobseekers. Recalling that OAED is particularly interested in three models of labor markets, i.e., large urban areas with high unemployment rates, labor markets with transitional characteristics and labor markets with a high degree of seasonal activity, enriching the analysis with additional information 39 Not all those unemployed registered with OAED are considered jobseekers. Even if the unemployed self-declare whether they are actively looking for a job or not, the majority of them reply positively. In addition, for the registered unemployed in Greece, there is still no specified frequency or documentation required for job search activities while monitoring requirements are also relatively lenient. 40 Occupations are self-declared by the unemployed upon their registration with the agency. Many declared occupations are very similar in nature but categorized differently. For this reason, it is recommended that similar occupations should be summed up so that the findings are more realistic. 41 See World Bank (2020): Strategy for effective engagement with employers across the scale-up regions (Output A.2 – Technical Note #3), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012. 52 on jobseekers in each setting is crucial. The urban model falls under the general approach, and thus, the analysis mentioned above can apply. However, in labor markets falling under the “transitional” and “seasonal” models, some additional analysis of the registered (and even anticipated) unemployed will be needed. The unemployed in transitional labor markets face special circumstances and challenges. These workers usually have lower reemployment rates than other job seekers and, even though they often have significant work experience, this experience is typically tied to a specific job or field that is no longer in demand. In addition to the OPS data mentioned above, information on planned layoffs should be obtained from the firms shutting down or downsizing. This would include general demographic information, but also occupational and skills-related information, wages, pension access, post-layoff expectations, etc. Since early interventions are critical, and since advance notice is often required, this information should be collected as soon as it is available, and ideally, before the layoffs have occurred. In cases where outplacement services are being provided, there will often be more qualitative information that has been collected in counsellor interviews with the workers. For seasonal labor markets, OAED could consider the possibility of collecting additional information at registration in order to be able to identify the characteristics of the unemployed in such areas and therefore understand their particular needs. Additional information might include plans for the offseason, interest in upskilling/reskilling, etc. 1.3 Other sources of labor market intelligence Ideally, analyzing labor markets should include a forward-looking lens. Systematic sectoral and occupational forecasting is typically an important tool in OECD countries for analyzing labor demand for the purposes of ALMP programming. However, this type of forecasting in Greece is still in development; Greece is, therefore, one of the countries receiving support from the European Structural Fund (ESF) to improve its forecasting capabilities. Currently, the only source of skills forecasts in the country is via CEDEFOP’s European skills forecasting model, which provides quantitative projections of future trends in employment, by sector of economic activity and occupational group.42,43 This could be a useful source of information for OAED. Apart from forecasting, skills anticipation activities include skills assessments, skills foresight analysis and ad hoc employer surveys. In Greece, EIEAD is the scientific authority responsible for the so called Diagnostic Mechanism, which addresses the need for updated, concrete and regular skills trend information, especially as an input for designing VET and employment policies. The mechanism has been operational since 2016; its results are published annually in a relevant report. Apart from the evolution of employment and information on other job characteristics (e.g., wages, the share of higher education graduates etc.), the mechanism provides information on the trends of economic sectors, occupations and qualifications at both the national and regional level. In addition, using a multivariate computation of dynamism of professions, EIEAD’s diagnostic mechanism presents prospects (in terms of employment/unemployment) for professions in each Greek region. A complementary objective of the mechanism is to identify development prospects and pinpoint the necessary conditions for those prospects to be harnessed for the benefit of entrepreneurship and employment. 42 CEDEFOP, (2020): Skills forecasts for Greece, available at: https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/files/skills_forecast_2020_greece.pdf. 43 According to CEDEFOP’s late st report, employment in Greece is forecast to increase by 2.5% in the short term (2018-22), by 3% in the medium term (2022-26) and by 2.7% in the longer term (2026-30). The model also identifies sectors and sub-sectors expected to see increases in employment in both the short term (2018-22) and the longer term (2022-30), as well as job openings by broad occupational group and by qualification level. 53 Various stakeholders have also launched several skills anticipation exercises. Examples include the National Organization of Skills Certification and Vocational Guidance (EOPPEP), the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises, the Labor Institute of the General Confederation of Greek Workers, the University of Piraeus, and private consultancies. The most common objective of such studies is to understand employment trends as well as to identify future skills needs, sectors and occupations that are expected to expand in the short-term. The findings of these exercises are often published in skills outlook reports. Businesses and labor unions can also provide important labor market information through more formal institutions such as skills councils. These councils exist in many countries and usually have bipartite (industry, labor) membership. Their mandate includes the identification and forecasts of labor demand and skill needs. In some countries, they are also involved with training providers and provide a bridge between providers and industry. Denmark has a long tradition involving various stakeholders (local authorities, businesses, unions, and education and research organizations) in skills anticipation activities. Apart from the Danish National Labour Market Council (BER) at the central level, the Regional Growth Forum assesses future education and skills needs in each region. The results from the monitoring of the labor market outcomes for program participants can be an indirect source of labor market information. The monitoring results for program participants through the M&E system could inform decisions on ALMP policy. They could also provide some useful insights into the needs of the local labor markets. Finally, new sources of real-time labor market information can complement conventional labor market data sources and improve the targeting of employment services, counsellors and learning providers. Job postings from online job portals is one of these sources.44 Although online job postings in the past were mostly addressed to highly skilled workers, their coverage is increasing, including jobs for almost all occupations and skill levels. Job postings do not replace the traditional labor market sources of information; on the contrary, they can be used in combination with them in order to enrich the labor market and skills analysis. Online postings usually have detailed information on skills and other job requirements that is more difficult to collect via conventional methods. In turn, the analysis of such information provides comprehensive, detailed and timely insights on labor market needs and trends. In addition, this analysis helps identifying new and emerging occupations and skills at an early stage. Access to this information can provide several opportunities for several groups: help labor market actors understand better employer demand for occupations and skills, enable individuals to make better career planning, help policy-makers make more informed decisions, and improve targeting.45 44 Examples of such online job portals in Greece include websites such as kariera.gr; indeed.com and jobfind.gr. 45 It should be noted, though, that using online job vacancies as a data source for labor market analysis has several limitations that should be taken into consideration. 54 2 Engagement with employers The engagement with employers by the local employment offices supported by OAED headquarters is essential to the success of the ALMP reform. Strong partnerships with employers are vital to ensure OAED’s services and interventions are demand-driven and to maintain its credibility as an employment agency. Implementation of an employer engagement strategy requires a systematic approach. A three-step process for employer engagement is shown in Figure 3 below. This section focuses on employer segmentation and outreach to firms with the final step (monitoring and evaluation) discussed under the monitoring and evaluation framework in section 4. Figure 3: Systematic approach: 3 main steps for an effective employer engagement strategy 2.1. Employer segmentation There are several reasons for prioritizing certain groups of employers. These include focusing on employers where the public employment services (PES) can attain the most placements with the least resources (improving efficiency); employers who have the most recruitment difficulties (tackling barriers to economic growth); or where there is an abundance of jobseekers with skills or attributes relevant to a group of employers (reducing unemployment). As public employment services usually have limited resources, segmenting employers is a cost- effective approach. However, since priorities might change from time to time, the segmentation approach followed should be reviewed and updated in order to allocate time and resources most efficiently. Having identified the most promising hiring sectors and occupations, OAED should then identify those firms in its registry of companies that fall within these sectors and those who recruit for the occupations with the most hirings. An important point to be highlighted is that OAED should not focus on all sectors and occupations that are promising but on those that match the profiles of the unemployed in the target area(s). 55 The next step for OAED would be to further classify priority firms according to their economic importance to the KPA area as well as by size: micro, small, medium and large46. For example, a firm that belongs to the area’s primary economic activity sector is considered as a strategically important firm. In contrast, a firm that may be active in a less critical sector can be considered and treated as a less important one. An additional filter should then be applied by segmenting firms further according to the categories in OAED’s Employer Guide47 to determine how best to approach them, and which staff should be responsible. These categories include representative enterprises, select employers, hidden treasures, good friends, other types of businesses and no specific category (See Table 2). This segmentation will result in further refinement of those firms in the hiring sectors/top occupations and will create a list of priority employers for the Key Account Unit and Employer Counsellors to contact in the target areas. 2.2. Outreach to firms The inputs for outreach include both targeted messages and materials as well as the channels of communication, based on the employer segmentation. While OAED is mandated to publish the comprehensive legal documents that underpin new programs, this is not necessarily the type of information that resonates with employers, nor will most take the time to read it. Therefore, additional tailored material is required to present the key messages that matter to firms. Communications targeted at employers should be short, accessible, and related to their interests and category. An overarching employer leaflet could explain how OAED can help and what employers can do to boost their business and support the local community. In addition, more specific material will be needed to extend the reform, explaining how the selected interventions work and how an employer can qualify. Once employers are interested in working with OAED, guidance and support materials on specific interventions should be well received and can help assure the quality of work experience or practical training. Since the majority of firms across Greece are either very small or small and the number of employer counselors in the local employment offices is rather limited, each of the five categories of firms (see table below) should be approached differently to ensure the best use of resources, time and effort. It is recommended that OAED’s Key Account Unit contact large employers throughout the target regions, business and/or industry associations, social partners, etc. On the other hand, the Heads of the local employment offices and employer counselors should reach out to local smaller firms and local employer networks. Throughout this effort, coordination between employer-facing staff at all levels is essential. OAED must exploit all direct and indirect channels to reach employers, especially the very small ones, and to encourage support from employer representative groups and social partners. Moreover, the Key Account Unit and the relevant Heads of employment offices must work closely to coordinate a communications campaign aimed at these groups to win their cooperation for the ALMP reform extension. Given the pandemic, social media, email and telephone contact will be especially important in the short to medium term, but these should be regular communications rather than one off contacts. Communications and outreach activities can be managed by the newly developed CRM. Table 2 below suggests how priority employers should be approached and which OAED staff should take responsibility for this. 46 As the Guide highlights, the existence of so many micro-enterprises in Greece calls for a relaxation of the strict European definitions of size – for example, it suggests that in Greece a company that employs over 100 people might be classified as “large”. 47 OAED’s Guide to Approaching Employers was produced in 2016. It there fore does not take into account COVID- 19 related restrictions to its operations. 56 Table 2: Firm segmentation and suggested outreach approaches OAED Category Firm characteristics Approach method & responsibility Usually large firms that belong Regular emails to HR setting out the offer from to the main economic activity OAED and the ‘ask’ of the employer set out in Category 5: of the region or who are in an employer leaflet, followed up by a call then, Representative frontier sectors. Often, they if positive, a visit. Should also send regular enterprises do not use OAED to fill their newsletter and invite to ad hoc events. vacancies. Responsible: Key Account Unit. Regular calls/emails with employer leaflet to Use OAED services and hire inform of services and request support. Category 4: frequently. Can also be Follow-up visit/calls for those that respond. important companies to the Invitations to events. Select employers local economy. Responsible: Key Account Unit/ Heads of KPA/ employer counselors. Intro email with employer leaflet to inform of OAED services, follow-up visit/calls for those Category 3: Hire frequently but do not use that respond, invitation to job fairs and other Hidden OAED services. events. Treasures Responsible: Key Account Unit/ Heads of KPA/ employer counselors. Call to inform of new programs, follow-up visit/calls for those that respond, invitation to Category 2: History of successful job fairs, etc Good friends collaboration with OAED Responsible: Key Account Unit/ Heads of KPA/ employer counselors. Intro email with employer leaflet to inform of Category 1: Employers who do not fit into OAED services, with follow-up call for those any of the above categories, that respond. Other types of but who are hiring employees business in priority sectors/occupations Responsible: Key Account Unit/ employer counselors. Introductory call/email with employer leaflet; request to speak to network meetings; No category Employer representative disseminate OAED info among members, groups social media, participate in events etc. Responsible: Heads of KPA/Key Account Unit. As discussed in section 1.3 above, some countries introduce ‘skills councils’ at the regional or local level in order to identify labor demand trends and skill needs. They also provide an opportunity for employers and the education and training system, including the local employment office, to work together to meet the emerging skills needs of their regions and address the labor market relevance of further education and training provision. Strengthening employer engagement is an additional motivation for the establishment of local skills councils. The evaluation of the Elefsina pilot confirmed the need for improved employer engagement, especially at the local level. 57 Box 4: Ireland’s Regional Skills Fora Ireland offers an example of skills councils through its network of Regional Skills Fora. The Irish PES participates in these groups across the country as part of a structured engagement on the skills agenda to contribute to better outcomes for individuals and enterprises. The Fora provide: ▪ A single contact point in each region to help employers connect with the range of services and support that is available across the education and training system. ▪ More robust, real-time labor market information and analysis of employer needs to inform program development. ▪ Greater collaboration and utilization of resources across the education and training system and enhanced progression routes for individuals. ▪ A structure for employers to become more involved in promoting employment roles and opportunities in their sectors. 3 Engagement with jobseekers The delivery processes necessary to provide services and programs within the open framework (i.e., programs more continuously available and a stronger role for counselors in referring jobseekers to them) encompass communication and outreach to jobseekers, intake and registration, processes that take place through counseling (profiling and skills assessment, Individual Action Plans and referrals), and finally management of data on beneficiaries to ensure that their information is up to date and that they comply with responsibilities. Figure 4: The delivery chain for engagement with jobseekers This section describes the broad outlines of what is needed for the extension of the ALMP reform, complemented by the details on the specific actions required to put in place these requirements. OAED’s engagement with both jobseekers and employers is conditioned on its capacity, particularly the number of counselors. According to the Strategic Framework (April 2018), the hiring of additional counselors was intended to more than halve the ratio of unemployed to counselor from 3500/counselor to 1500/counselor. This is still a relatively high number by European standards and, in practice, is exceeded in many areas.48 3.1 Outreach and communication Key inputs for outreach and communication are information about programs, including objectives and delivery processes, and eligibility requirements. The objective is for the intended population to be informed, understand the interventions, and participate. Going forward, the information provided should emphasize that the goal of OAED is helping clients obtain employment, thereby setting realistic 48For example, among 4 municipalities covered by 13 local employment offices, the ratio of counselor to registered unemployed ranged from 2500-7000:1, exceeding by a large margin what could be considered a very favorable position (a ratio up to 300:1) or a relatively good ratio of 300-600:1, as is the situation for many countries in Europe. 58 expectations. For example, outreach material could clearly state the factors determining referrals and access to programs (profile category, the results of assessment tools, etc.), as well as the rights and responsibilities of participants and OAED (mutual obligations framework). Related to channels of communication, based on the Elefsina pilot, use of the improved OAED portal will be important. In addition, OAED presence in the social media and use of the CRM would be useful instruments. Results on take-up should be closely monitored. There are incentives in Greece for those not actively seeking work to register as unemployed to receive certain benefits49, and interest of the target group will be affected by program design, such as the size of training allowances. Take-up among the target group (unemployed aged 45 and older and registered for at least 6 months at OAED) in Elefsina was around 24 percent, using September 2019 data. There are several factors that could explain this somewhat low take-up. One is that that not all registered unemployed may be jobseekers, so they would not be interested in employment programs. Another is the fact that OAED may not have had much credibility because in the context of high unemployment and intermittent program offer, they had not had much to offer jobseekers in the past. The characteristics of the target group (older long-term unemployed) may also have been a factor. Finally, the few eligible non-participants interviewed during the process evaluation responded that they did not participate in the pilot because they had not heard about it. 3.2 Registration and intake The pool of potential participants includes individuals who have registered as unemployed with OAED. These individuals will be informed that in order to benefit from the services and programs offered during the reform extension, they must fill out the profiling questionnaire on-line and request an appointment with a counselor. It is recommended that in areas facing mass-layoffs because of structural changes, services (including profiling) should be provided to those at risk of redundancy but not yet registered as unemployed. This recommendation covers workers who have been informed of layoff through advance notice but not yet laid off. 3.3 Counseling The purpose of the session with the job counselor is to assess the jobseeker to determine which vacancies and/or programs are best suited to his/her needs (“eligibility”) and make referrals accordingly. Based on the experience in Elefsina, several recommended counseling enhancements are discussed under both the assessment and eligibility/referral processes. 3.3.1 Profiling OAED has introduced a profiling methodology to segment jobseekers into five groups with similar “distance to the labor market” or chances of resuming work. This categorization is proposed to determine access to services and programs during the second phase of the reform. There would be exceptions to this general approach. For example, it is recommended that OAED intervene as quickly as possible to address youth unemployment, independent of profile category. A similar approach is recommended for workers at risk of mass redundancy who should be offered services like skill assessments, job search preparation, basic skills and digital skills online, and entrepreneurship training online as quickly as possible post-layoff irrespective of profile category: ▪ Category 1: Ready immediately for a job ▪ Category 2: Low risk of remaining unemployed 49For a detailed discussion and analysis of incentives, see World Bank (2020): Incentives for ALMP participation (Output A.3 – Technical Note #2), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012. 59 ▪ Category 3: Moderate risk of remaining unemployed ▪ Category 4: High risk of remaining unemployed ▪ Category 5: Special categories facing major barriers to enter labor market Counselors would use the profiling questionnaire results to guide the interview and confirm the final category with the jobseeker, with the option of adjusting the category as appropriate based on any clarifications during the discussion. Based on the experience of Elefsina, counselors may need additional guidance on questions they can use to probe more on barriers to enter the labor market. During the Elefsina pilot, despite the target group, only 12 individuals were classified as Category 5, less than 1 percent. In addition, data analyzed for the process evaluation suggested that in many cases, counselors agreed with a jobseeker to reclassify an initial calculation of Category 5 during the counseling session. Some of the factors that may have contributed to this result are being corrected (setting a minimum score in the basic skills assessment which if not met would immediately put an individual in Category 5, and reducing the level of training allowances). This may cause the number of jobseekers classified as 5 to increase for the reform extension. 3.3.2 Assessment An enhancement that could be considered for the reform extension is that counselors go beyond the profiling questionnaire to assess the jobseeker, particularly for potential ALMP participation. First, there was a good experience in Elefsina on identifying the need among particular jobseekers for assessments on basic skills (literacy, numeracy and IT) and occupational prior learning. In addition to maintaining those tools, the use of technology-supported skills assessments could be broadened to identify jobseeker interests to better inform the type of training required or serve as a practical test or trial for some specialties before referring to available vacancies. Second, counselors may use the interview to identify those individuals who are most likely to improve their employment prospects through training. This may involve screening clients in a number of aspects, such as suitability for the training specialty in terms of physical fitness, motivation, cognitive ability, basic skills, competencies, etc.; checking that individuals have not benefited from prior government-financed training; assessing commitment to job search; and reminding applicants to continue to look for work while they are in training. Third, building on the profiling questionnaire the counselor could discuss and assess any barriers to the take up of ALMPs or jobs, such as for example lack of suitable transportation, care responsibilities, or gaps in soft skills. Fourth, counselors should provide local labor market information during the session using the tool developed by EIEAD drawing user-friendly data from the Diagnostic Mechanism. Fifth, OAED is considering developing an instrument that would complement existing assessments by matching the skills of the unemployed to the labor market through the use of information in combined databases on vacancies and required skills. The tool generates suggestions for additional training and suitable vacancies (subsidized or not). If this set of additions proves too ambitious, some skill assessments and screening for suitability for training could be handled by training center staff. 3.3.3 Referrals Based on the profile category and the results of any other assessments and discussion with the jobseeker during the interview, the counselor makes a referral to a vacancy or an ALMP, guided by the current information on the availability of programs. The details on the potential referrals according to profile category are illustrated in Table 4 in Part D (Proposed ALMPs by profiling category). If the supply of potential participants exceeds program availability, other criteria may need to be used in addition to the profile category (like long-term unemployed and the results of assessments). For example, in the case of training, it would be important to assess the potential for employment outcomes to be improved by training. Counselors could also probe applicants’ motivation by discussing the mutual 60 obligations framework, as recommended below. If the counselor does not feel comfortable taking the ultimate decision (particularly to deny eligibility for training, as was the case during the Elefsina pilot), OAED could consider institutionalizing a committee within the local employment office that makes the decision on whether a jobseeker will be issued a training voucher or not. Eligibility for training (basic skills, vocational training, and other types) is confirmed by the issuance of a voucher to the jobseeker which he/she then needs to “activate” with the provider. In the case of a wage subsidy, the jobseeker is referred to an interview with an employer. If successful, the employer registers the hiring, and if not successful, the jobseeker returns to the counselor. It is suggested that the Individual Action Plan (IAP), which documents referrals and is agreed upon between the counselor and the jobseeker, encompasses the mutual obligations framework. Currently, the risk is that the mutual obligations framework functions more as a procedural requirement, since with the exception of wage subsidy referrals, registered unemployed only sign it when they register or renew their unemployment status with OAED. Instead, counselors could discuss mutual obligations in the interview, as is the case now for wage subsidy referrals, including probing on specific aspects such as job search, openness to mobility, etc. An agreement could be incorporated as part of the IAP. The Governor’s office of OAED is reviewing the mutual obligations framework with a view to strengthening it. The current Greek mutual obligations framework (March 2018) is lenient by OECD standards on several counts, including job search monitoring, availability for work, and suitability of employment. In the case of job search monitoring there are no requirements to document job search activities, nor any monitoring. In Greece, jobseekers do not need to be available for work during ALMP participation, nor are they required to accept part-time or temporary work. Regarding the definition of suitable work, job seekers have the right to reject a job during the first 12 months of unemployment if the salary is not 100 percent of the level of the previous job, dropping to 80 percent after 18 months of unemployment. Other suitable work requirements include a match with professional objectives, a distance of no more than 30 km. from home, and the existence of transit services. Most OECD countries require documentation of job search and have arrangements for monitoring. Unemployed are required to be available for work during ALMP participation. In addition, the definition of “suitable work” and accepted reasons for rejection of a job offer do not have as high salary requirements and over as long a duration as Greece, and have less restrictive provisions on other aspects (match with professional qualifications, commuting distance/time, etc.). Since a revised framework could contribute to improving the targeting and effectiveness of ALMPs, it would be helpful for the review to be completed and the changes formalized before the reform extension begins so that they can be reflected in outreach and communications to jobseekers. There are different options for providing referrals to those with obstacles to employment (Category 5) that require services not provided by OAED. This category needs special programs and counseling, to be provided through new partnerships with other organizations specializing in providing such services or with the knowledge and links with agencies such as municipal community centers, etc. One option would be to build on the arrangements under the national roll-out of the activation pillar of the Guaranteed Minimum Income to agree on referral procedures to community centers. Another option would be for OAED to undertake a service mapping of the local supply of services and update it periodically. Such an inventory could start with the most common obstacles, and the counselors could make the information available to those clients with obstacles. Finally, other countries have opted to use public-private partnerships with private organizations (for profit and non-profit, community-based) in order to serve the hard-to-place. However, carrying out this type of outsourcing is difficult. It requires the management of partnerships or contracts, as well as addressing a host of issues: counting on a sufficient number of credible providers to ensure competition, screening for quality, structuring agreements that embed the right 61 incentives for the provision of adequate services and appropriate standards, pricing outputs or outcomes, and supervision (See Part D - Section 2.4 for more discussion). 3.4 Data management This phase of the process focuses on follow-up by the counselor of the post-referral actions of the jobseekers, such as activation of vouchers, attendance at classes, and the results of employer interviews for wage subsidy positions, which may signal the need to contact the jobseeker for remedial actions. The counselor could also monitor mutual obligation requirements, such as job search. Finally, it is recommended that a post-ALMP participation interview become a standard part of counseling procedures in order to ensure follow-up to achieve employment objectives and assess the effectiveness of referrals. As are other counseling procedures, this interview should be underpinned specifically by the information system. 3.5 Operational aspects for engagement with jobseekers In order to manage the provision of counseling services depending on the take-up rate, OAED could consider giving priority for counseling to groups more distant from the labor market. For example, individuals in Group 1 could receive access only to short group workshops and vacancies (see Table 4 in Part D). Another option is to require that all applicants participate in a short workshop focusing on job search, cv preparation, interview readiness, and soft skills, drawing on the content of the current OAED offer, prior to the appointment with counselors. Albania recently implemented such an approach and found that some jobseekers were able to find a job on their own during or right after the course, eliminating the need to meet with a counselor. In Greece, such a requirement might serve to separate out those registered unemployed who are jobseekers and those who are registered mainly to receive the associated benefits (health insurance, free transportation and tickets for entertainment, and electricity subsidies). In any case, delivery of the recommended assessment and referral enhancements through counseling will require supporting inputs, such as revised guidelines for the counseling session and referrals and assessment tools, among others, prior to the scale-up (see suggested next steps, below). Other considerations include activities related to recipients of the Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) and how OAED will be engaging with jobseekers given COVID-19 restrictions. The Guaranteed Minimum Income in Greece (previously the Social Solidarity Income) includes, in addition to a cash transfer, support through selected social services (Pillar 2) and services to promote labor market integration (Pillar 3). The national roll-out of the 3rd pillar of the GMI is being launched in April 2021. Procedures are coordinated between the Directorate responsible for the GMI in the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, municipalities and their community centers, and OAED and its local KPA2, supported by connections between the 3 information platforms. OAED has estimated the maximum number of GMI beneficiaries that each KPA can manage per month. A list of the first individuals to be served has been compiled prioritizing beneficiaries with the most prolonged duration in the GMI and whose financial situation has not improved. In light of COVID-19, OAED has launched an online platform through which both jobseekers and employers in Greece are able to schedule appointments with OAED counselors. Counseling sessions will take place online via video calls. 62 4 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) 4.1 M&E framework Strong monitoring and evaluation arrangements for the ALMP reform extension are critical to track implementation as well as to ensure learning for the design and implementation of the reformed ALMP system in the future. At the program level, the Program Document50, which supported the implementation of the Elefsina pilot, included the intervention logic (results chain) and indicators for the three priority ALMPs (public works, wage subsidies, and training) as well as for the overall pilot, including the engagement with jobseekers. The Blueprint for administering the operation of ALMPs describes the underlying information systems needed, including for monitoring and evaluation, as well as the design of a M&E System for ALMPs.51 This system is designed to provide the foundation for the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs to carry out high-level monitoring of active labor market policy and programs and to evaluate the implementation and outcomes of these programs. Starting from the foundation of these outputs and the experience of the Elefsina pilot, this section looks at the priorities for monitoring and evaluation during the extension of the reform. 4.2 Program logic The first step in developing the arrangements for monitoring and evaluation is building a common understanding of the objectives of the reform extension and of each ALMP, for example, through a results chain including inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes, and long-term impact. While some programs such as wage subsidies will continue in the reform extension, there may be new programs or ones with significant design changes. In addition, for the reform extension, a results chain and more comprehensive monitoring indicators for the engagement with employers52 should be incorporated. Once it is decided which programs will be implemented, the program logic should be made explicit through the preparation of a results chain and agreed upon within OAED. The chart below for wage subsidies can be used as a model. In addition, for the programs that continue, the results chain and indicators developed for the Elefsina pilot should be reviewed and adjusted, as necessary. 50 World Bank (2018): Program Document for 1st Phase of New ALMP Model (Output A.2), Administrative Agreement of November 27, 2017 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2017/029. 51 World Bank (2018): Blueprint for a system to administer the operation of ALMPs and a monitoring and evaluation system of ALMPs (Output B.1), Administrative Agreement of November 27, 2017 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2017/029. 52 Example of monitoring indicators for engagement with employers are included in World Bank (2020): Strategy for engagement with employers across the scale-up regions (Output A.2 – Technical Note #3), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012. 63 Figure 5: Results chain for wage subsidies 4.3 Indicators and responsibilities for data collection The next step is to develop and define the indicators for each program and for the overall reform extension (including engagement with employers and jobseekers), as well as set targets. The aim of the monitoring indicators is to be able to track what the reform extension overall as well as each ALMP is doing (and not doing) against the objectives (and targets) of the program, to identify problem areas and modify practices within the program as needed, and to identify successful practices. It is important to set the frequency and also the responsibilities for data collection, as illustrated in the table below. As was the case in the Elefsina pilot, all indicators would be drawn from the OAED Information Systems or ERGANI53. It will be important that the substantial delays in generating the information needed for the engagement with jobseekers, wage subsidy program, and socio-economic characteristics of participants and initial data quality problems are corrected. Table 3: Monitoring indicators for wage subsidies Indicator Name of Indicator Frequency Source Definition Type Quarterly No. of firms which post job vacancies on Applicant Firms OAED OPS Cumulative OAED portal Quarterly No. of job vacancies posted by firms on Positions posted OAED OPS Cumulative OAED portal Process and No. of hirings w. wage subsidy Quarterly Efficiency Subsidized hirings OAED OPS % of postings for which hirings are Cumulative subsidized Average time between stages Time efficiency Quarterly OAED OPS Position posted and position filled Position filled and first subsidy payment Subsidized Quarterly OAED OPS Total No. of subsidized hirings placements Cumulative Outputs Sum of salaries as they appear in Ergani Average salary of ERGANI Quarterly under the employees registration card over subsidized position the number of contracts 53 Information system at MoLSA, in which employers are obliged to report all events of hirings and dismissals. 64 Average subsidy received by all beneficiaries Average subsidy Quarterly OAED OPS in the part quarter Completed Quarterly OAED OPS No. and % of beneficiaries who successfully subsidies Cumulative completed the subsidy period No. and % of beneficiaries who had an Integrated Quarterly Ergani contract immediately after end of ERGANI beneficiaries (exit) Cumulative subsidy period, disaggregated by contract length. Outcomes Integrated beneficiaries (6 months) No and % of beneficiaries employed or Quarterly ERGANI self-employed 6 and 12 months after Cumulative EFKA/GEMI Integrated subsidy period expired. beneficiaries (12 months) 4.4 Monitoring For the reform extension, monitoring is the continuous process of collecting and analyzing information on the engagement with employers and jobseekers and on the delivery of ALMPs at different stages (inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes) to ensure that they are being implemented according to plan. Good monitoring is essential to effective evaluation by providing continuous information on program implementation. 4.5 Evaluation Evaluation refers to a systematic, objective assessment of a program or policy, its design, implementation and/or results that is undertaken at a specific point in time. Process evaluations assess the design and implementation of the program, while impact evaluations determine what is being achieved because of the program. Together these evaluations provide evidence on the relevance and fulfilment of objectives, efficiency, effectiveness, impact, and sustainability. 4.5.1 Process evaluation A process evaluation is the most common type of evaluation. A process evaluation documents, assesses and explains how the operating procedures of a program are being implemented. Understanding how and how well an intervention is actually being implemented and being delivered is critical to explain a program’s results (or lack thereof) and to decide on whether to keep or modify a program. The primary value of a process evaluation is to offer a set of very well substantiated recommendations that can contribute to adjustments to improve program effectiveness. As mentioned earlier in this report, a process evaluation was carried out for the Elefsina pilot. The aim was to understand how processes were carried out for the pilot relative to the procedures set out in official documents. In addition to those documents, the evaluation drew on information gathered from interviews with staff, observation visits, and focus groups (mainly with participants of pilot activities). Also, participants in both classroom training and internships completed questionnaires. Administrative data was a key input, particularly the monitoring indicators. The report reviewed the following business processes: communications and outreach; profiling; appointments with counselors, including creation or update of the IAP and referral to an ALMP; procedures related to the wage subsidy and training programs; monitoring; 65 support provided by information systems; and pilot management. The report included each process’s main findings, organized by strengths and weaknesses, and a list of recommendations.54 4.5.2 Impact evaluation Impact evaluations assess the causal effect of an intervention and should be an important feature of pilot programs. These evaluations identify whether the intervention had an impact on the outcomes they were designed to improve, such as the post-program employment of participants. In some cases where different program options or delivery modes exist, impact evaluations can compare the impact of alternative design and implementation modalities. Impact evaluations can be time-and resource-intensive, so they are typically carried out on a selective basis - for example, when new approaches are being introduced through a pilot program. Since the purpose of the pilot is usually to test these approaches with the intention of possibly scaling them up, it is important to rigorously evaluate their impact and their cost-effectiveness. Impact evaluations need to be built into the design of programs in order to establish a sound methodology. The methodology and data required to implement a valid impact evaluation need to be identified at an early stage.55 This is especially important for ensuring that the true effect of the intervention on beneficiaries can be estimated. Any simple comparison of beneficiaries with non-beneficiaries will not achieve this because other factors, such as differences in individual characteristics like education, experience and socio-economic variables, may actually explain part of the differences in the final outcomes that thus should not be attributed to the intervention. That is why a rigorous evaluation involves constructing a valid comparison group that represents the “counterfactual”-i.e. approximates what would have happened to the treatment (participant) group members (e.g. in terms of income and employment status) if they had not been in the program. Constructing a valid comparison group should be done before the program is implemented. As well, the necessary data to compare the participants with the comparison group needs to be identified at the outset, and provisions need to be made to ensure that the data will be available. In evaluations of ALMPs, typical data needs include information on participants and comparison group members, on programs and services received by participants, and on key outcome variables such as employment and earnings. Ideally, cost data can be collected as well so that the impact evaluation includes cost-effectiveness, i.e., an analysis of resources used in order to estimate the costs of achieving impacts. Both administrative data and survey data can be used for impact evaluations. 4.6 Decision-making using performance information In order for monitoring and evaluation to achieve the desired objective of improvements in performance, there needs to be a feedback mechanism in place to program managers and implementers. The purpose of monitoring and evaluation is to provide information that can be used to improve the performance of programs or to drop them if data and related analysis shows that they are not effective or do not deliver the expected results. In the case of monitoring, information needs to be presented in a user-friendly way and discussed regularly in order to identify the need for adjustments. There were delays in receiving some information for the Elefsina pilot. However, once the data was available, monitoring indicators were presented both in user-friendly dashboards (including drill-down options that facilitated different types of analysis) as well as in a short report, which highlighted key trends. Likewise, the findings of evaluations, whether process or impact, need to be made available and reviewed by program staff. For example, OAED managers and staff validated and discussed the findings of the process 54 See World Bank (2020): Process Evaluation of the Elefsina pilot (Output B.7), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012. 55 See World Bank (2019): Proposed Terms of Reference for Process Evaluation of the Pilot for a discussion of terminology, methods, and a proposal for a rigorous evaluation of the first phase of the ALMP reform (Output B.5), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012. 66 evaluation in Elefsina. The findings fed back into the program, resulting in some adjustments that could be made in the short-run, for example, correcting a problem on the scoring of basic skills assessments, as well as more detailed follow-up on some topics, such as the incentives for training participation. 5 Information Technology OAED operates a management information system (MIS) called OPS to support its core operations. Although based on relatively old technologies56, OAED OPS is very rich in functions and fully integrated into all of OAED’s operations. Also, the OPS and OAED’s subsystem of e-services and portal provide tailored services for the unemployed and employers by making use of both OPS and data/information received through interoperability with other external systems (e.g., ERGANI, SSI/GMI, GSIS57, etc.). This enables the (semi)automatic update of status and additional information. Moreover, it is expected that OPS will be complemented by a customer service tool (CRM)58 and a business process management (BPM) software developed under OAED’s reengineering framework. Finally, the Demand- Responsive Training Program (DRTP) MIS supports the administration of demand-responsive training programs under OAED, and an M&E MIS is currently under implementation59 to support the monitoring and evaluation of all ALMPs at OAED. In order to support rolling-out a broader ALMP reform, OAED’s digital ecosystem (technology building blocks) should be reviewed in the light of new ALMP reforms once these are agreed upon, and new (or upgraded) information systems should be planned accordingly. The ALMP business processes, OAED’s operational model, and the delivery chain of services to jobseekers should be the starting point for the review. The transformed digital ecosystem’s functions and services should completely align with business processes for the engagement with employers and jobseekers and the operation of ALMPs. As discussed in the earlier section on lessons learned, IT support for the Elefsina pilot had shortcomings. In addition to the next steps listed in Section E of this report, which aim to correct these issues, detailed recommendations, including those relating to OAED’s portal and communication and specific ALMPs are covered in Annex IV. 56 OPS has been developed on APEX 4.2, and it is based on a 3-tier architecture in order to facilitate its extendibility. The underlying database of the platform is Oracle 11g ver. 2 57 General Secretariat for Information Systems of the Ministry of Economy and Finance develops and operates large- scale information systems, mainly tax systems, Greek Customs and the payroll and pension systems. 58 CRM facilitates communication and provision of personalized services to the unemployed and employers, by making use of the relevant registries maintained by OAED. Employers’ registry is enriched through interoperability with data/information drawn from various systems (AADE registry - Independent Authority for Public Revenue, OPS- OAED, ERGANI, OPS-SEPE - Federation of Hellenic Information Technology & Communications Enterprises, OAED’s Economic Management, etc.). 59 It is expected to be deployed by mid-2021. 67 Part D: Active Labor Market Programs (ALMPs) The second phase of the ALMP reform provides an opportunity for continuous testing of ALMPs –with additional target groups and regions. The section is divided in three parts. The first part identifies which ALMP types that are commonly deployed by PES could be gradually adopted by OAED. It then illustrates how these ALMP types can be mapped against the five broad categories of profiled jobseekers, and specifies which programs can be offered horizontally across all regions in Greece and which should be differentiated by target area. Since OAED is planning to put a stronger emphasis on training going forward, the second part of this section presents considerations in implementing training programs. These include good practices and the impact of COVID-19 on training programs, new approaches on delivery, and the use of incentives to drive performance. Finally, the last section provides some insights on outsourcing of services. 1. Identification of appropriate ALMPs and matching 1.1. Current and potential new ALMPs ALMP programming at OAED is dominated by wage subsidies, while the MoLSA manages a public works program (Kinofelis)60 and implements several training programs (See Box 5). Employment programs in Greece are fragmented, with call-based programs, each effective for several years, for different target groups (regularly distinguished by age), and with different objectives (e.g. gaining work experience, entering cutting-edge sectors) and implementation arrangements (e.g., vouchers, industry collaboration). A review of these programs and suggestions for improvements of wage subsidies and Kinofelis as well as general principles for demand-responsive training programs were put together in May 2018;61 this was followed by a detailed Program Document62 for the pilot program in Elefsina. Box 5: Before the Elefsina pilot, training The MoLSA’s programs training for the programs unemployed were mainly implemented and overseen by the NSRF Executive Unit of the Ministry of Labor, also dealing with the Management of European Structural Funds. The Ministry’s programs were call-based, with different objectives, they targeted different groups and used a voucher system. The call for tender was addressed to both training providers and the unemployed, and training beneficiaries were identified through open applications (ranked via a point system), rather than via employment services. Training combined classroom and work-based learning. There were also some demand-responsive training programs that were implemented with/by industry (con)federations which incorporated elements that, compared to the voucher programs, were likely to produce better results. These include more involvement of industry in defining training content, stricter criteria for selection of training providers, provision of support and counseling to trainees, and assessment and certification of trainee skills after completion of training. In December 2020, the Ministry launched a program for 10,000 unemployed, registered with OAED, aged 30-49 for training in specialties of cutting-edge sectors such as manufacturing, construction, health, tourism and food. Apart from the theoretical and the on-the-job training, the 5-month program foresees the provision of professional counseling services, and certification of knowledge and skills acquired. If at the end of the program, an internship is converted into an employment contract, the training provider will be given a 300-euro bonus. 60 Kinofelis is implemented in collaboration with public authorities such as municipalities and OAED. 61 See World Bank (2018): Concept Note for 1st phase of new ALMP model (Output A.1), Administrative Agreement of November 27, 2017 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2017/029. 62 See World Bank (2018): Program Document for 1st phase of new ALMP model (Output A.2), Administrative Agreement of November 27, 2017 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2017/029. 68 Other programs launched during the last couple of years (2019-2020) include a program for 5,000 tertiary education graduates (3,000 aged 25-29 and 2,000 aged 30-49), currently unemployed registered with OAED for training in the IT sector, and a program for training and certification of 5,000 freight handlers (members of the National Register of freight handlers). The Elefsina pilot introduced several innovations in ALMP programming. First, the pilot tried to make the wage subsidy program more attractive to employers to improve take-up. Second, a new training program was developed as a referral option for OAED counselors, consisting of a suite of training programs aligned to the needs of the local labor market and available on a continuous basis in line with the open framework. Finally, several improvements to the delivery of Kinofelis were proposed,63 but the program was purposefully delayed until the training program was operational and finally not offered as part of the Elefsina pilot. Going forward, OAED is interested in expanding its programming offer in response to labor market and jobseeker needs. To update the programming, the World Bank has reviewed 70 European and other international programs64 to inform the proposed mix of ALMPs going forward. The review was combined with OAED’s profiling methodology to segment jobseekers into five groups according to their distance from the labor market, or chances of resuming work (see section 1.2). The review suggests that eight broad ALMP types are commonly deployed by PES (see Figure 5). These can be grouped into three categories: ▪ Programs that are already part of OAED’s offer (national wage subsidy programs, entrepreneurship support, apprenticeships for youth, and public works); ▪ New job search preparation and basic/digital skills programs for all labor market models; and ▪ New types of training and wage subsidies depending on the specificities of each labor market model and target group. 63 The most important changes to Kinofelis foreseen were (1) aligning it with the open framework by spreading out the process of submission and approval of project proposals and calls for participation over four cycles so that placements can be made on a more continuous instead of sporadic basis; and (2) requiring profiling for all potential participants, including a meeting with a counselor. 64 See World Bank (2020): Suggested ALMP mix by target groups for Phase 2 of ALMP reform (Output B.4), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012, for the full list of programs reviewed. 69 1.2 Matching ALMPs against target groups OAED serves a diverse range of customers. Table 4 below gives an overview of the eight typical program and sub-program types, and illustrates how these can be mapped against five broad categories of jobseekers using OAED’s profiling categories. The table focuses on Groups 1-4 (low – high risk group, respectively), according to the profiling results. Individuals categorized as Group 5 are best directed to services outside OAED, as this category needs specialist programs and counseling. Such services can be provided through new partnerships with organizations with relevant expertise, such as community centers, non-governmental organizations, and others. In the case of young people, the recommendation is to intervene as quickly as possible to address youth unemployment and offer support, regardless of the profiling category. Table 4: Proposed ALMPs by profiling category Group 2: Group 3: Group 4: Group 1: Middle Middle - High Type Progam Low risk Group 5 risk high risk risk group group group group 1 Intermediation/vacancies Job search preparation (online) Job search preparation (group sessions) 2 Career and vocational guidance Women's network Wage subsidies Work experience programs 3 Wage subsidies for seasonal (with option for upskilling) Seasonal benefit for seasonal workers (with requirement for reskilling) 4 Entrepreneurship 5 Basic skills training Digital skills training (online) Short retraining 6 Employer-led training programs Vocational training Comprehensive employment programs 7 Apprenticeship for youth 8 Public works Referral to programs in collaboration 9 with municipalities and community centers 70 Figure 6: Mix of active labor market programs and services for Phase 2 of the ALMP reform. Note: Green boxes represent broad program types while blue boxes represent program sub-types. Note: Green boxes represent broad program types while blue boxes represent program sub-types. 1.3 Matching ALMPs against target areas OAED does not need to roll out all of the new programs at the same time nor across every area of Greece. Human capacity contraints imply that the categorization and delivery of programs should be carefully planned. There is a standard menu of programs and services that could be offered horizontally across all regions, and additional programs and services that should be differentiated by area. Choices about additional programs to offer in the different regions should be aligned with local economic development plans and based on an understanding of the labor market, a knowledge of the target group(s) and consideration of the capacity of OAED in each area. Besides, OAED may want to limit the scope of new programs to evaluate them before scaling them up more widely. This underlines the need for comprehensive analysis validated by stakeholder cooperation and consultation so that programs can be targeted effectively. Figure 7: Programs that could be offered horizontally nationwide Figure 6 above outlines a standard menu of 10 programs and services that could be offered horizontally across all regions in Greece. The first 6 programs (01-06) are already part of OAED’s offer. These should be further strengthened and offered to OAED’s clients according to their profiling category, following the suggestions provided under Section 1.2 (Table 4). The last 4 programs (07-10) are either new to OAED or recently tested as part of the Elefsina pilot (e.g. basic skills training). It is recommended that these programs should be developed and offered as part of OAED’s offer nation-wide but mapped against target groups according to the proposal in Table 4. In particular, these 10 programs are the following:65 1. Intermediation and matching of jobseekers to vacancies – with enhanced employer outreach and enhanced skill assessment and matching. 65See World Bank (2020): Suggested ALMP mix by target groups for Phase 2 of ALMP reform (Output B.4), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012, for international examples of these programs and services. 72 2. Career and vocational guidance – Guidance is a cornerstone of OAED’s services. The skills of employment counselors can be supported by the profiling and assessment tools discussed elsewhere in this document, as well as by online and group sessions on job search as mentioned above. For those groups who are further from the labor market, guidance is regularly offered as part of a package of measures, including soft skills, occupational training and work experience. 3. National wage subsidy programs – These programs are at the core of OAED’s programming and could be offered with additional innovations, as suggested in more detail below and in Annex V. 4. Apprenticeships for youth – OAED operates 50 apprenticeship schools (EPAS) nationwide. The OAED EPAs dual apprenticeship scheme offered at the upper secondary level leads to qualifications at level 3 of the National Qualification Framework (NQF)66 after two years of alternating learning at school and the workplace. 5. National public works programs (Kinofelis) – Kinofelis is managed by the MoLSA and implemented in collaboration with OAED, municipal or regional authorities and other public structures. OAED is responsible for the application procedure, the selection process, and the payment of beneficiaries directly into their bank accounts, as well as delivering two personal counselling sessions at the beginning and at the end of participation. The duration of program participation for each worker is 8 months. The skill requirements are advertised as part of the call for applications and are incorporated into the selection process by OAED. Beneficiaries must be registered as unemployed with OAED, as well as meet other selection criteria. The final selection is based on a points system. 6. Entrepreneurship support – As part of its services, OAED offers financial support to promote self- employment. Potential applicants must have completed a seminar on entrepreneurial initiatives (SAEP for its acronym in Greek) delivered by specialized counselors and must have submitted a business plan. To be eligible for support, beneficiaries must be individual entrepreneurs or members of an independent legal entity. 7. Job search preparation programs, online and offered in group sessions – Those who are recently unemployed, young people lacking experience and longer-term unemployed people can all benefit from help with articulating their skills and experience, creating a CV, preparing for interviews, and knowing how to search for vacancies. Job search preparation programs are low-cost interventions that can be effective in moving people into work. 8. Basic skills assessment followed by basic skills training (literacy, maths, IT) – The development of an assessment and training modules for basic skills was an innovative feature of the Elefsina pilot and is ready to be rolled out further. Given the low educational level of the majority of the target group in Elefsina and their age range, it was anticipated that many would struggle with numeracy and literacy, including digital literacy. This would make it difficult them to access some jobs, or achieve their full potential in others. Lack of basic skills can also prevent people from taking up vocational training or getting the maximum benefit. 66Pursuant to the new Law 4763/2020 entitled “National Vocational Education and Training”, Government Gazette 254/A/21 - 12-2020. 73 9. Digital skills training (online) – Basic digital skills are now a requirement for many jobs and increasingly contribute to citizens’ inclusion as an increasing number of public services become digitized. The global pandemic has accelerated this shift, with many PES moving their training online where possible (see Box 14). 10. Women’s Network – Women can face particular barriers to entering or re-entering the labor market, e.g. caring and household responsibilities and lack of work experience, which in turn can lead to a lack of confidence and a sense of isolation. For this reason, many countries tailor programs specifically for women, including access to a support network that offers information about available opportunities, employability support and face-to-face meet-ups, as well as phone and online counseling. Figure 8: Additional programs that would fit in several labor markets across Greece Additional programs, some of them new to Greece, would be relevant in several types of labor markets. OAED is particularly interested in focusing on the following 4 programs: 1. Work experience programs - Work experience is deployed in most European countries as an inexpensive and effective intervention. It appeals to employers because it attracts minimum bureaucracy, it does not require committing to a contract and it offers the opportunity to try someone out before hiring them. With the uncertainty that COVID-19 has brought to economies, work experience programs become an attractive option for employers. These programs also address the needs of several groups of jobseekers: young people who lack experience in the job market no matter their educational level; long-term unemployed people who can benefit from experience in a real workplace as part of a broader package of support, for example including vocational guidance and soft skills/employability training; women returning to the labor market after a long spell of being at home; and other marginalized groups who can be hard to place in full-time vacancies but again with additional support, could work if they get a chance with an employer. 2. Employer-led training programs - designed in accordance with the needs of companies/industries and for workers. Some training programs implemented by MoLSA are designed based on this approach. OAED is 74 also familiar with this approach: according to initial planning, it was intended to trial this type of program in the Elefsina pilot. 3. Vocational programs, including short-term ones – ideally with employers participating in the design of training, mainly focusing on retraining for those unemployed affected by significant structural changes in the local economy. 4. Seasonal wage subsidies with option for training and seasonal benefits with requirement for training - addressing the challenge of seasonal workers by implementing off-season training sessions. At OAED, like work experience, this intervention spans the responsibilities of both the Training and the Employment departments. a. Seasonal wage subsidies with the option for upskilling/reskilling through training - The main goal is to incentivize firms to retain workers during the off-season through a subsidy. While in a subsidized job, beneficiaries are strongly encouraged to participate in educational programs and training. b. Seasonal benefits with the requirement for upskilling/reskilling through training – Those who have been employed and insured for one or two seasons in companies that operate seasonally are entitled to receive the regular unemployment benefit if they meet specific requirements. The benefit’s duration varies depending on the days of employment. Those who are not eligible to receive the standard unemployment benefit may be entitled to receive a special seasonal allowance paid once a year. OAED may consider linking the seasonal allowance with mandatory training in the off-season. 1.4 Pilot programming for three different labor market models In terms of the extension of the ALMP reform, OAED is considering a second round of pilots with a focus on three types of areas where differentiated programs could be offered, including areas in transition, areas with high seasonal employment, and urban areas with high unemployment. Initially, the following general approach could be adopted for deciding which programs should be trialed in these types of markets: Figure 9: General approach for deciding which programs should be trialed in the three areas 75 ▪ Determine the specific and specialist skill needs of employers in all areas (urban, in transition, seasonal). Careful analysis and employer outreach are required to determine the specific and specialist skill needs and the hiring potential of employers. Then vocational training programs can be designed to meet the demand. If possible, these should be employer-led programs where employers have a say in their design and make some commitment to participating in their delivery, as well as to hiring a proportion of the trainees. It is recommended to start with a small number of training programs identified through rigorous analysis and testing with employers, followed by a mapping of local training providers to determine how the training should best be delivered. ▪ Assess the scope for work experience programs in all areas (urban, transition, seasonal). As mentioned earlier in this section, work experience programs are likely to be an attractive option for employers and several groups of jobseekers in all these labor markets could benefit from these programs. ▪ Address the immediate labor market demands of areas in transition or with a highly seasonal workforce where there will be workers displaced from their jobs due to changing industries, changing seasons, and/or the impact of the pandemic. These areas could benefit from short vocational courses, sometimes combined with wage subsidies to address immediate re-skilling and upskilling needs. ▪ For urban areas with high unemployment and transition areas with a significant proportion of long- term unemployed people, consider offering a package of measures to help move them back into work - sometimes called comprehensive employment programs. These often include vocational guidance, soft skills and employability training as well as work experience. Many PES offering these types of programs forge partnerships with other agencies, for example to provide transport, child care or psycho- social support. In cases where there are multiple barriers to work, some PES outsource the provision of services to groups that require specialist interventions. A general assessment like the one above, combined with detailed labor market analysis (supply and demand) will result in a proposed ALMP mix for any type of area. Based on comprehensive analysis of supply and demand across four regions of Greece that fall under the three types of area discussed above, Figure 9 below summarizes the potential program mix that could be piloted in each type of labor market. For urban areas, two pilot proposals are shown to allow for the evaluation of different ALMPs in similar settings. They grey box at the center outlines a set of 10 programs that could be offered horizontally across all three areas. This is the same set of programs that is proposed to be offered horizontally nationwide (as shown earlier in Figure 6). Additional programs should be then implemented based on the labor market model in question. In particular, the proposal for each type of area includes: For large urban areas with high unemployment: ▪ Urban area 1: Introduce a work experience program and establish an employer-led training offer ▪ Urban area 2: Establish a vocational training offer and a comprehensive employment program. 76 For an area in transition: ▪ Introduce a work experience program ▪ Establish a short vocational retraining offer for specific sectors. For an area with high seasonal activity: ▪ Establish a short vocational retraining offer for specific sectors ▪ Introduce a wage subsidy for seasonally unemployed workers, with an option for short vocational retraining ▪ Modify the national seasonal benefit to introduce a requirement for short vocational retraining. Figure 10: Proposed ALMPs by type of area Note: All the programs presented in this section should be matched against the five profiling categories of jobseekers according to the proposal outlined in Table 4 (Section 1.2). 77 2. Considerations in implementing training programs 2.1 Good practice and the impact of COVID-19 on training programs Before implementing new programs, OAED will want to consider its own capacity and capability to deliver, as well as other potential delivery partners. The ILO has noted67 that the global pandemic has stretched the capacity of PES to respond to recent and sudden changes and to facilitate “the complex and location -specific labor market adjustments needed at community level”. As high unemployment levels continue to co-exist with unmet market demand for new skills, the capacity of PES to bridge this gap with training programs will be tested, and the contribution of employers and private training providers will increase in importance. While there are important principles for the structure of employment training (Box 6), the emphasis on kinds of training also has shifted with the pandemic (Box 7). Box 6: General principles for employment training A review of the international evidence68 suggests a number of principles for high-quality employment training as well as emerging trends. In addition, the ongoing pandemic has impacted both labor markets and PES operations, with a knock-on effect on the type of training required and on delivery methods. Evidence suggests that: - In a climate of increased unemployment, training courses need an appropriate mix of generic and vocational skills, and should target low-skilled and long-term unemployed adults. - Employer involvement is crucial: the most successful schemes combine institutional training with practical training, mirroring a real job and workplace environment. In addition, in the case of employer-led training, the opportunity to co-design training along with a guaranteed interview for all trainees and/or a commitment to hire a proportion of those trained would help to incentivize hiring. - Training measures with more positive evaluation results tend to be well-tailored to the jobseeker’s potential, meet (local) employers’ skills needs, lead to formal qualifications, are smaller in scale, and target specific disadvantaged groups and particular occupations. - Providing the quality assurance and incentives are right, using a wide range of service providers can enhance opportunities for more tailored, demand-led training provision. - Integrated approaches and institutional cooperation are important for those groups who face multiple employment barriers; information and guidance play a central role. - Training providers not only help learners to develop knowledge, skills and competences and to gain working experience, but also work at the interface between learners and employers, and often function as labor market intermediaries. This intermediary function of training providers should be supported. Additional lessons from Elefsina The evaluation of the Elefsina pilot has also provided some valuable lessons for OAED to carry into future training programs, namely: 67ILO (August, 2020): Policy Brief: COVID-19: Public employment services and labour market policy responses. 68Kluve et al 2017; European Employment Policy Observatory (EEPO) Review, June 2015: Upskilling unemployed adults (aged 25 to 64). 78 - Labor market data to inform training specialties needs to be detailed (4-digit classification) and enhanced by direct contacts with local employers. - Specialties in demand should be vetted against the characteristics of the identified target groups. - There should be transparent screening and selection criteria for potential vocational trainees, e.g., minimum educational level, evidence of motivation to work, aptitude for the chosen specialty. - The quality of work-based training can be improved through the use of employer counselors to identify and vet internship offers; restricting offers from 1-person firms unless there is a clear intention to hire; and enforcing the requirements in the tri-partite agreement that stipulate training plans, firm mentors and work based-learning supervisors. Box 7: Impact of COVID-19 on training requirements The COVID 19 pandemic has accelerated some of the PES Network’s predictions. Digital skills have increased in importance across the board: for PES because of more digitization of services; for jobseekers in order to access online services and cope with new technologies at work; and for employers and workers where increased remote working means making greater use of technology and online business services. New technology-based training formats have been introduced. To take advantage of online learning, individuals not only require access to the internet and an appropriate device, but they also need basic digital literacy. Digital skills have become a requirement for many jobs, and entry-level jobs are now available that are not dependent on local labor markets for those with basic digital skills. European PES have responded to the challenges of COVID-19 with new training formats and targeted training programs to meet the changing labor market, for example: - Portugal’s PES makes distance training available through an Office 365 platform to deliver professional training for workers within the framework of the exceptional support currently provided, and for those in the PES’s Training Centres. - The Danish PES is supporting municipalities to set up vocational training courses, to close the skills gap of former workers in the hotel and restaurant sector to retrain, for example, for work in the logistics sector. The PES also supports the private sector by offering online courses for employees, e.g, it has developed a 30-day vocational training course for employees within the service, tourism, hotel and restaurant industries. The course focuses on industry- specific qualifications such as online customer service, sales & marketing, and food hygiene. Companies across the country can enrol their employees in the course instead of laying them off. - In Sweden, employers in the agriculture and forestry industry, usually reliant on international seasonal workers, are looking for labor. The PES collaborates with training providers to develop short training courses for Swedish people, partly remotely. The training lasts five days at a distance followed by five days internship. - Google’s cooperation with OAED includes a number of initiatives, e.g., free training of 3,000 young unemployed in digital marketing, to be accompanied by a program of 6 months of work experience in the digital economy. The program attracted 2,500 applications in 48 hours and applications closed in 6 days, after exceeding 5,000 applications. The cooperation also includes free training of 200 OAED teachers by Google Greece on the platform "G Suite for Education“ and the implementation of distance education and training in the EPAS and IEK schools and in the Schools for the Disabled through the platform "G Suite for Education". - In the same vein, OAED recently launched a cooperation with Coursera, a world-renowned open online course provider. Through this initiative, OAED will provide free access to online courses offered by Coursera in different 79 thematic units and specialties for 50,000 registered unemployed. Beneficiaries who successfully complete these courses will be provided with a free certificate of attendance by Coursera. In the response from PES to COVID-19, it is evident that PES are now engaging with a wider client group that their traditional base and using free online tools and resources to support jobseekers and active workers alike in combining down-time with training. The ILO69 has noted the promising adoption of integrated approaches by PES supported by closer collaboration across government agencies and specialist providers at national and local levels. It has commended the combination of services to address both direct barriers to employability and other challenges affecting job-readiness, including poor literacy, long-term illness, and housing and financial constraints. 2.2 New approaches to delivery In addition to capacity issues, good practice suggests that decentralized training provision, delivered by a wide range of education providers, enhances opportunities for the tailored provision of practical training oriented towards labor market needs70. Once target regions have been selected, and demand and supply analysis has been conducted to assess which programs are right for each area, OAED has to decide who will deliver the new programs. This can be done in three steps: 1. OAED maps its own training capacity, including: training facilities; trainer expertise, experience and availability; curricula, learning and assessment materials; and certification options. 2. OAED maps the public and private education and training providers in the target areas to determine which ones exist, what experience they have in delivering for the client groups in question, what is their performance record to date, what would their costs be for the training in question, and can they cater for the numbers anticpated and within the timescale needed? A mapping of public vocational training providers available in four areas was done as part of the initial preparation of the ALMP reform extension. A similar mapping could be done for other specific regions and include private training providers. 3. OAED then considers other stakeholders, for example, Chambers of Commerce, regional and municipal authorities, and large employers with the potential to deliver the necessary training, asking the same questions as in step 2. An initial exemplar mapping of stakeholders for four regions was conducted during the initial preparation of the ALMP reform extension. At the end of this review, OAED should be able to narrow down its options and decide which providers are best placed to compete to deliver the types of training and support needed. OAED has some experience in contracting out training; in the Elefsina pilot, OAED sourced training from private training providers (KEKs) via a call procedure. This is common in many countries where there is a lack of capacity in the mainstream education and training system, or where the government wishes to encourage contestability of supply. However, the pilot’s process evaluation shows that the performance of the KEKs involved 69 ILO (2020): COVID-19: Public employment services and labour market policy responses, available at: https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/documents/publication/wcms_753404.pdf . 70 European Employment Policy Observatory (EEPO) (2015): Review on Upskilling Unemployed Adults: The Organisation, Profiling and Targeting of Training Provision, available at: https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?langId=en&catId=1086&newsId=2265&furtherNews=yes 80 in the pilot was patchy across many of their responsibilities, suggesting the need for a change in the incentives for training providers and improved quality assurance. 2.3 Using incentives to drive performance Quality assurance and funding are two key levers that drive performance in training providers. A number of recommendations were made following the Elefisna pilot to change the funding incentives and improve the quality of outsourced training programs that can be applied more widely. These include: ▪ Improving the quality of training through: auditing of training providers to measure the quality of delivery as well as compliance; rewards for outcomes achieved (certificates gained/job placements), rather than purely paying for inputs; and establishing monitoring indicators upfront.71 ▪ Changing the financial incentives for private training providers by introducing a new funding formula that rewards them on the basis of employment outcomes achieved. Once some experience with the new funding formula has been gained, it can be extended to reward job retention and the employment of more marginalized groups. Many countries have introduced such systems. For example, Ireland’s Momentum II program deployed a delivery-outcomes-based funding model, where training providers were incentivized through financial premiums based on the success of skills training. Almost a third of the per- participant payment was attached to the achievement of an employment outcome, which was assessed 2 months after the program’s completion. This was felt to promote success and tie expenditure to successful outcomes. If quality assurance is robust and transparent, and the funding formula drives the right behaviors, the use of private training providers can be very effective in addressing limited capacity and capability to better serve the needs of jobseekers and employers. For unemployed people with multiple barriers to employment, however, training alone is not sufficient to help them move into work, and more comprehensive support is needed. Reviewing PES responses to the global pandemic, the ILO72 has noted the promising adoption of integrated approaches by PES supported by closer collaboration across government agencies and specialist providers at national and local levels. Many countries are combining services to address both direct barriers to employability and a range of other challenges affecting job- readiness, including poor literacy, long-term illness, and housing and financial constraints. 3. Outsourcing of services In most countries, job matching, placement and intermediation services traditionally have been the preserve of the public sector. However, in recent years, PES have instigated partnerships with other public sector agencies, as well as outsourcing services to the private sector, non-profit-making bodies and NGOs to improve service delivery and respond to the needs of diverse groups in the labor market. While in many OECD countries there remains a heavy reliance on direct provision delivered by the PES, some services are contracted out. 71The monitoring indicators developed for the trainng program in the Elefsina pilot could be used as a reference. See World Bank (2019): Functional and technical specifications for an MIS of training programs (Output A.3). 72 ILO (2020): COVID-19: Public employment services and labour market policy responses, available at: https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---ed_emp/documents/publication/wcms_753404.pdf. 81 These include skills training, job search assistance, and intensive forms of counseling and support targeted at disadvantaged groups, such as specialist programs for people with disabilities.73 Impact evaluations of these programs are scarce, and because contexts vary so much it is hard to make direct comparisons. However, literature reviews of the evaluation findings conclude that subcontracted providers can, under the right contractual arrangements, improve outcomes for disadvantaged jobseekers and bring innovation to service delivery.74 These findings bear out the lessons from the Elefsina pilot, which suggest that improved quality assurance and incentives would improve outcomes for jobseekers and offer better value for money to OAED. Some of the main lessons learned from countries with experience of outsourcing PES services75 include: • The government agency should design the commissioning process and contracts in ways that enable lessons to be learned rapidly and adjustments to be made. The development of a contracting system will involve a trial and error process and is likely to require an extended period of monitoring, evaluation and modification. • Outcome-based funding provides the most effective driver of performance, but only if the pricing is right. Outcome-based contracts realize efficiency gains through transferring risk to providers and giving them greater flexibility in delivery, but paying them on the basis of the employment outcomes secured. However, one of the key findings from evaluations is the negative impact of contract selection processes that gave too much weight to the lowest-priced bids, which resulted in poor performance and unviable contracts. • It takes time for government agencies to build up knowledge about the relative cost and effectiveness of services, and how to target more expensive provision at harder-to-place claimants. Simple eligibility rules, such as length of unemployment, have advantages in terms of their ease of operation but many OECD countries now use more elaborate profiling instruments. • The government agency must build an understanding of what can be delivered and at what cost. A primary concern is that profit-making companies may make excessive profits. One approach with longer term contracts is to ensure that at least in the transitional phase there is agreement between the government agency and provider to share cost and performance information. This can be facilitated by a commitment to a period of open book accounting, that allows for terms to be reset to ensure value for money. • High-quality contracting requires effective IT-based information systems that enable government agencies to track participants, monitor provider performance and verify service delivery and outcomes. 73 ILO (2017): Partnerships and contractors in the delivery of employment services and ALMPs: a literature review, EMPLOYMENT Working Paper No. 226, available at: https://www.ilo.org/employment/Whatwedo/Publications/working- papers/WCMS_613479/lang--en/index.htm.; Finn, D. and R. Johnson (2014): Experience of OECD Countries in Contracting for. Employment Services: Lessons for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; Finn D. (2011): Subcontracting in public employment services: review of research findings and literature on recent trends and business models, The European Comission Mutual Learning Programme for Public Employment Services. 74 Finn, D. and R. Johnson (2014): Experience of OECD Countries in Contracting for. Employment Services: Lessons for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 75 Finn, D. and R. Johnson (2014): Experience of OECD Countries in Contracting for. Employment Services: Lessons for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; Finn D. (2011): Subcontracting in public employment services: review of research findings and literature on recent trends and business models, The European Comission Mutual Learning Programme for Public Employment Services. 82 • Contract management requires the recruitment and continuous development of skilled contract and performance managers. • Minimum service standards are necessary to avoid negative provider behavior or perverse impacts. The evidence illustrates the importance of government agencies independently monitoring participant experience and ensuring that robust systems can respond to complaints of poor service delivery. • The government agency has a strategic role to play in encouraging local responsiveness and in integrating employment with other services, especially with employer organizations and with providers of skills training, transport and child care. Finally, the literature suggests that the main benefits of contracting may only emerge over time. The design and management of contracting systems is a complex task. It takes time for public officials to learn how to minimize distorted incentives and secure the efficiencies and innovation that independent providers can offer. 83 Part E: Proposed action plan for roll-out of reform Following on the preceding analysis, in each area actions for the reform extension are summarized in the table below. Those classified as immediate could be rolled-out nationwide in the short-term; those classified as medium-term are intended for a second round of pilots; longer-term actions would be suitable to consider after the end of the second round of pilots. Immediate Medium-term (second round pilots) Longer-term • Decide upon the mechanism through which the underlying labor market analysis for each of the target area(s) would be conducted • Conduct a detailed labor market analysis in house • Ensure a systematic collaboration with using the M&E system EIEAD’s Diagnostic Mechanism • Conducting consultations with local employers • Apply employer surveys to Understanding • Labor demand analysis, at the 4-digit etc. should be part of the job description of the get information on hiring OAED’s level of classification per target area. employer counselors of the local KPAs trends and skills needs, customers and • Validate labor demand findings through • Establish local employment and skills councils including for soft skills, and labor demand where employers and officials from the education consider partnerships with consultations with local employers, EIEAD, the social partners including development of relevant and training system can cooperate on defining and meeting skills needs or/and other organizations procedures • Track any COVID-related impacts that are not reflected in the data • Establish and pilot an employment and skills council in Elefsina • Conduct detailed analysis of demand and supply and align the results with local economic • Set clear objectives and targets for development plans employer outreach • Analyze and review • Map the identified hiring sectors and occupations • Establish strong coordination to firms in OAED’s registry; segment and monitoring data Engagement mechanism between the Key Account prioritize them, and determine the appropriate • Evaluate the strengths and with Unit at OAED Headquarters and KPAs weaknesses of the outreach contact approach employers • Establish and communicate monitoring • Complement quantitative analysis with systematic strategy indicators, related monitoring and liaison and partnership with employer • Adapt and update the reporting arrangements representative bodies approach as necessary • Prepare promotional and guidance material for the ALMPs selected 84 • Train Key Account Unit staff and employer counselors in the planned approach and new ALMPs • Decide key messages for outreach and • Strengthen the Mutual Obligations communication channels Framework • Plan workload for counsellor appointments • Decide on additional assessment tools, • Ensure target group can complete profiling and guidelines for counsellors questionnaire and obtain appointment with • Consider public-private Engagement • Expand counsellor guidelines to include counsellor easily partnerships to serve the with labor market information and obstacles • Provide counsellors up-to-date information on hard-to-place jobseekers to employment/ALMP participation programs on offer • Decide if feasible to provide referrals to • Update referral criteria and guidelines, including community centers and local services for additional assessments Category 5 • Organize committee to approve training eligibility and procedures • Prepare/revise results chains and indicators for each program. Include data source, disaggregation, periodicity and definition • Arrange for and carry out a • Identify information system source fields for Monitoring • Adjust training indicators to include indicators process evaluation and evaluation participant exits before completion • Consider a possible impact • Assign responsibility for data provision and any evaluation written reports • Arrange to review monitoring data and identify follow-up • Define programs’ business processes • Upgrade program information systems to support program business processes. Identify any features Information • Supply counselling IT infrastructure that cannot be supported and find alternatives technology with labor market information • Realize necessary interoperability features • Put in place M&E MIS. Prepare dashboard formats and arrange for supply of data from information system • Agree on horizontal ALMPs that can be introduced in Greece regardless of area • Select an appropriate ALMP mix for each pilot ALMPs area allowing scope for the evaluation of different • Analyze and review • Start an internal conversation about programs in similar, and in different areas monitoring data on ALMPs OAED’s capacity to deliver the variety 85 of services required by its diverse • Develop the ALMPs selected for piloting starting • Evaluate the strengths and customer base, and alternative with those judged to be highest priority. For each weaknesses of each program approaches to some service delivery – ie ALMP this will involve: • Adapt and update programs outsourcing - Create the design rules and program mix as - Develop the business processes necessary - Establish benefit entitlement and allowances • Build expertise in contracting - Specify underpinning IT requirements out skills training learning - Establish monitoring indicators and data from the lessons of the reporting systems Elefsina pilot - Streamline overall processes and procedures • Introduce reformed funding and consistency as far as possible across incentives and improved OAED’s program portfolio quality assurance for • Map stakeholders in target areas with the potential outsourced training programs to offer services to OAED’s Category 5 group • Learn from other countries and forge partnerships with relevant agencies for with experience of referral outsourcing service delivery • Map OAED’s training capacity in target areas, to explore the possibility of including: training facilities, trainer expertise, contracting out further experience and availability; curricula, learning and services, e.g, job search assessment materials; and certification options assistance, and intensive • Map the public and private education and training forms of counseling and providers to assess their capacity to deliver support targeted at programs to priority client groups. Review their disadvantaged groups performance record and costs. • Map and assess the other stakeholders in a similar way, for example, Chambers of Commerce, regional and municipal authorities, and large employers with potential to deliver the necessary training • Produce a shortlist of providers that could deliver the training and support needed for each area • Decide which services OAED is best placed to deliver and which might be contracted out • Implement a mix of ALMPs in selected area 86 Part F: Annexes 87 Annex I: List of World Bank Outputs Phase I (November 2017 - February 2019) Output Deliverable(s) Output A1: Concept Note for 1st phase Concept Note of new ALMP model Output A.2: Program Document for 1st Program Document phase of new ALMP model Output A.3: Functional and technical Report with functional and technical specifications for training specifications for an MIS of training MIS programs Output B.1: Blueprint for a system to administer the operation of ALMPs and a Blueprint monitoring and evaluation system of ALMPs Report with technical specifications of the ALMPs M&E MIS Output B.2: Technical Specifications of the Monitoring & Evaluation Information Presentation on options and roadmap for the implementation of System at MoLSA the M&E MIS Phase II (February 2019 – March 2020) Output Deliverable(s) Output A1: Concept paper setting out a proposed roadmap of priorities and Conceptual Note for Scaling up the ALMP Reform timing on scaling up of ALMP reform Note 1: Early reflections on first phase of ALMP reform (Elefsina pilot) Note 2: Incentives for ALMP participation Note 3: Strategy for effective engagement with employers across Output A2: 3 Technical notes on topics the scale-up regions related to scaling up of ALMP reform Presentation on employer engagement international examples Additional note: Suggested ALMP mix by target groups for Phase 2 of ALMP reform (under Output B.4) Output A3: Technical note summarizing Technical note synthesizing progress and identifying lessons experience on scaling up process, lessons learned so far on ALMP reform process learned and recommended next steps Revised set of dashboards and reports on full set of ALMP Output B.1: Proposed dashboards and M&E indicators for pilot brief reports based on business intelligence software for the M&E of Dashboards with training monitoring data augmented to include ALMPs under the pilot demographic data from OPS 88 Dashboards updated with data from OPS and the DRTP MIS 6 Quarterly Progress Notes on support to IT improvements Output B.2: Quarterly progress notes on support to IT improvements for ALMP Presentations on options for development of ALMP M&E M&E system System Workshops on impact evaluation methodology Workshop on Labor Market Diagnostics in Greece - Comments and suggestions on potential ways forward Output B.3: Workshops, information note Information note on New Sources of Labor Market Information and guidelines on use of information on Case Study on The Demand Responsive Training Program labor demand and skills needs to inform within the Elefsina Pilot as input to workshop on “Good the design of ALMPs and innovative Practices’ as part of the ALMP reforms and ESF co-financing approaches for data generation and technical support project” analysis Capacity building guidance note - recommendations on designing feedback mechanisms to ensure that labor market information is integrated into ALMP design Labor market briefs for ALMP reform scale-up Output B.4: Monitoring reports First monitoring report containing proposed indicators for the pilot and the three ALMPs included in the Program Document for the ALMP system Second monitoring report prepared under Output B.1 (Phase I) and related analysis Output B.5: Terms of Reference for Proposed Terms of Reference for Process Evaluation of the Process Evaluation of pilot of new ALMP Pilot model Output B.6: Process Evaluation Process Evaluation Technical Report Technical Report Output B.7: Technical note presenting Technical Note Proposing Options for Impact Evaluation of the proposed options and method for impact Elefsina Pilot evaluation of ALMPs 89 Annex II: Elefsina results Table AII-1: Profile and size of target group (beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries) in the Elefsina pilot, source: OAED OPS August 2018 September 2019 October 2020 Total Percent Men Women Total Percent Men Women Total Percent Men Women Education level Unclassified/blank 10 0.30% 3 7 631 17% 225 406 882 15.54% 362 520 Less than primary 366 11% 147 219 460 13% 167 293 Primary/compulsory 1812 56% 713 1099 1536 42% 547 989 2901 51.10% 1200 1701 Secondary 866 27% 253 613 793 22% 235 558 1501 26.44% 483 1018 Post-secondary 45 1% 21 24 51 1% 13 38 107 1.88% 32 75 Tertiary 150 5% 40 110 144 4% 49 95 279 4.91% 88 191 Age 45-54 1537 47% 479 1058 2497 44% 830 1667 55+ 1715 53% 699 1016 3180 56% 1339 1841 Unemployment duration >=6 months and <12 539 16% 623 17% 290 333 236 4% 106 130 months >=12 months 2713 84% 2994 83% 948 2046 5334 94% 2016 3318 SSI SSI Recipient 942 29% 429 513 1110 31% 476 634 1068 19% 457 611 Non-SSI Recipient 2310 71% 749 1561 2507 69% 762 1745 4609 81% 1712 2897 Total 3252 1178 2074 3617 1238 2379 5677 2169 3508 90 Table AII-2: Balance Table (1) (2) (3) (4) Control Treatment Difference in No. of Variable Observations Group Group means 0.110 0.167 0.057*** Appear in ERGANI in October 5,663 (0.313) (0.373) (0.010) 0.266 0.339 0.073*** Not unemployed by end of October 5,663 (0.442) (0.473) (0.014) 57.188 55.620 -1.568*** Age 5,663 (6.767) (5.817) (0.179) 0.607 0.644 0.036** Male 5,663 (0.488) (0.479) (0.014) 627.442 645.014 17.572*** Duration of Eligibility 5,563 (196.571) (180.326) (5.456) 0.209 0.137 -0.073*** SSI Recipient 5,663 (0.407) (0.343) (0.011) 0.172 0.189 0.017 Unemployment Benefits 5,663 (0.378) (0.392) (0.011) 0.080 0.141 0.061*** Uther UE Benefits 5,663 (0.271) (0.348) (0.010) 0.070 0.131 0.061*** Specialty: Clerks and related 5,663 (0.256) (0.338) (0.009) 0.078 0.067 -0.011 Specialty: Craft and related 5,663 (0.268) (0.250) (0.007) 0.448 0.389 -0.059*** Specialty: Elementary 5,663 (0.497) (0.488) (0.014) 0.008 0.006 -0.003 Specialty: Legislators, senior 5,663 (0.090) (0.074) (0.002) 0.275 0.216 -0.059*** Specialty: Plant and machine 5,663 (0.447) (0.412) (0.012) 0.021 0.024 0.003 Specialty: Professionals 5,663 (0.142) (0.153) (0.004) 0.071 0.119 0.047*** Specialty: Service workers and 5,663 (0.258) (0.324) (0.009) Specialty: Skill agricultural and fishery 0.002 0.006 0.004* 5,663 workers (0.050) (0.078) (0.002) Specialty: Technicians and associate 0.026 0.042 0.017*** 5,663 professionals (0.158) (0.201) (0.006) 0.055 0.104 0.049*** Education: Post-Secondary or higher 5,663 (0.228) (0.305) (0.008) 0.691 0.603 -0.089*** Education: Primary or less 5,663 (0.462) (0.490) (0.014) 0.254 0.293 0.040*** Education: Secondary Education 5,663 (0.435) (0.455) (0.013) 0.503 0.456 -0.047*** Municipality: Aspropyrgos 5,663 (0.500) (0.498) (0.015) 0.314 0.357 0.043*** Municipality: Elefsina 5,663 (0.464) (0.479) (0.014) 0.149 0.173 0.023** Municipality: Mandra-Eidyllia 5,663 (0.357) (0.378) (0.011) 0.033 0.014 -0.019*** Municipality: Others 5,663 (0.179) (0.118) (0.004) Observations 4,030 1,633 5,663 Note: The balance table shows each of the group’s means and the difference in their means, calculated by a binary variable in dicating treatment on the given variable, clustering robust standard errors at the municipality level.***, **, * star(s) indicate significance at 10, 5 and 1 percent level respectively. Tables AII-3 and AII-4 below present the results of probit regressions which estimate the impact of pilot participation on employment and unemployment in October 2020. The full sample results included individuals eligible for the pilot, who were in the OAED unemployment registry at some point between November 2018 (start of the pilot) and October 2020 (defined as the end). The restricted sample included eligible individuals who were in the registry between November 2018 and February 2019. The rationale for this restricted sample was that this allowed for including the effect of pilot interventions (training and wage subsidies) which largely occurred in the second half of 2019 and 2020. Pilot participation was defined as having received an individual action plan76. Employment was identified through the ERGANI registry and unemployment through the OAED registry. The results in Tables AII-3 and AII-4 show estimations for different “nearest neighbor” matches. Table AII-3: Probit estimates of the effect of participation on employment in October 2020 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 1:1 nn- 1:2 nn- 1:3 nn- 1:4 nn- 1:5 nn- Observatio matching matching matching matching matching ns 0.0200* 0.0247** 0.0262** 0.0281*** 0.0294*** Full Sample 5,563 (0.0122) (0.0112) (0.0110) (0.0109) (0.0108) Restricted 0.0267* 0.0273** 0.0332** 0.0319** 0.0326** 3,423 sample (0.0147) (0.0136) (0.0132) (0.0131) (0.0128) Note: Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses, stars indicate the following level of significance: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Table AII-4: Probit estimates of the effect of participation on being in the unemployment registry in October 2020 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 1:1 nn- 1:2 nn- 1:3 nn- 1:4 nn- 1:5 nn- Observatio matching matching matching matching matching ns -0.0489*** -0.0545*** -0.0485*** -0.0532*** -0.0502*** Full Sample 5,563 (0.0169) (0.0157) (0.0152) (0.0149) (0.0148) Restricted -0.0616*** -0.0590*** -0.0572*** -0.0542*** -0.0486*** 3,423 sample (0.0219) (0.0202) (0.0194) (0.0191) (0.0188) Note: Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses, stars indicate the following level of significance: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. 76Participation in the pilot was on a demand-basis from any individual in the target group. As described in more detail in the Elefsina pilot process evaluation, OAED carried out several outreach and communication activities, including organizing informational sessions, distributing written material, as well as sending SMS messages and making phone calls. 92 Annex III: Status/progress as of end 2020 – Actual implementation and initial planning of the ALMP reform Note: The figure describes the main steps of the actual implementation of the reform. Boxes in yellow indicate the initial (delayed) milestones. Annex IV: IT System In addition to the high-level recommendations related to IT support for the extension of ALMP reforms discussed in the main body of this report, the following is a list of more detailed features that were discussed and deemed essential for the Elefsina pilot during the continuous IT coordination meetings between MoLSA, OAED, and the World Bank/DG-REFORM77, but have not been implemented yet. The list also includes recommendations covering the OAED Portal and Communications, and enhanced analytical capabilities. Overall • Counselors need to have one unique account to access all information systems (through Single-Sign-On). • The newly delivered Customer Service Information System (CRM) should be used to support the counselor’s activities involving interaction with employers and job seekers. • The newly delivered business process management (BPM) software should be used to support OAED ’s client-centered operational model and the automation of various business processes. • The OAED OPS should support through the portal, CV creation, update, export, and online access for the beneficiaries. Demand Responsive Training Programs (DRTP) • The DRTP MIS should update the OAED OPS counseling infrastructure (Individual Action Plan) on successful completion of a training program by a beneficiary, or when the beneficiaries drop out of a training program, on the achievement of a certificate, as well as with the beneficiary’s training voucher information, and the certification voucher information. • The DRTP MIS should update the beneficiary’s CV in OAED OPS, on successful completion of a training program, and on achievement of a certificate. • The DRTP MIS should be interconnected through a Web Service with the MIS of EOPPEP to verify the Training Provider’s accreditation status. • Support should be enabled for an online registry of certification centers and options for online compliance control. • There should be the capability for the online offer (and management) for internship placements by firms (continuously) through the OAED OPS subsystem of e-services. • There should be capability for online compliance control for the program eligibiity terms concerning the firms offering internship placements. This should be realized through a Web service provided by the ERGANI MIS. • Internship supervisors and the work-based learning supervisors should be able to co-author the internship completion report, including assessing achievement against the action plan, which should constitute the employer’s testimonial/reference. • Counselors should have access to the DRTP MIS to view the beneficiary’s progress, the acquired skills, certifications, and individual reports. • There should be mechanisms to periodically inform (quarterly) the OAED counselors about the beneficiaries’ working status after the training program. 77More details can be found in the 6 quarterly IT reports submitted by the World Bank under Output B.2; World Bank (2019, 2020): Quarterly progress notes on support to IT improvements for ALMP M&E system), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012. 94 • More options for the gradual development of the Demand-Responsive Training Programs (DRTP) MIS are provided in the quarterly IT reports submitted by the World Bank. Kinofelis • The OAED OPS should provide the Kinofelis Platform with all the personal details of the beneficiaries selected after the application process. • The Kinofelis Platform should be interconnected with the Financial Management Information System of OAED to manage information concerning the beneficiaries' payments. Wage Subsidies • Counselors currently control firm eligibility (i.e., de minimis and layoffs) manually. The use of Web Services to automate this process would minimize the time spent on this particular administrative task. • Support should be provided for advanced search capabilities and intelligent matching functionality for job seekers, employers, and counselors. • Support should be provided for detailed job descriptions for the job postings. • The payment requests and the submission of the supporting documents should be served via an electronic form. • Interconnection through Web Services with ERGANI, EFKA, and SEPE could be implemented to streamline the auditing process. • The personal ID of a participant and the firm’s tax code should be matched to help identify ‘who participated in which firm’, a critical piece of information shedding light on what happens to individuals after the program ends. • With Web Services’ use and the realization of interconnection with EFKA, the verification of participants’ presence in a firm upon program completion can be implemented. OAED Portal and Communication • The OAED Portal (and mobile apps in the future) should be open to the public, informing people about labor market programs/services and delivery systems so that they can understand how, be able, and be encouraged to engage. The Portal (and/or mobile apps) should also cater to online inquiries/ complaints. With the provision of individual client accounts, both the Portal and the apps should also cater for alerts, notification, and information delivery mechanisms through various means (i.e., email, Web Access, SMS, instant messaging) for clients regarding their obligations stemming from their registration with OAED. Finally, the Portal should update both the employers and the job seekers with possible matches over time, based on their preferences. • The OAED Portal should have all the necessary mechanisms to support interoperability with private job portals in cases of a synergy of OAED with the private sector. • OAED IT infrastructure should provide multi-channel interaction. Regardless of the interaction channel, these technologies facilitate the clients during information discovery, service requests, and all the actions related to the PES. These client activities should ideally be API-based. Their collective use should accommodate any customer-facing process across any channel. Multi-channel interaction can be citizen- centric and includes chatbots, mobile devices, instant messaging apps, etc. • OAED ideally needs to be present in the social networks for community interaction regarding their clients. OAED core MIS (OPS and e-services) should support this by enabling the posting and receiving of data (e.g., posting news feeds, client comments, and inquiries through Facebook, Twitter, etc.). It should also facilitate 95 the caseworkers when engaging with the clients, thus improving their experience. All the data and metadata originating from social networks can be an excellent input for client analytics. • OAED IT infrastructure should provide support for an effective grievance redress mechanism (GRM) to enhance accountability and transparency regarding the services offered by OAED to all the clients and service providers, provided through multiple uptake channels (PES Portal, online beneficiary, employers, and service providers accounts, email, local offices, phone, etc.), and with the ability for grievances to be filled in anonymously. It should also provide the necessary means for submitting appeals (preferably online) against OAED decisions. This infrastructure should also accommodate a knowledge base (of past complaints and measures taken) to support the grievance redress process. Finally, it should support the necessary security mechanisms to enable grievances to be treated confidentially, assessed impartially, and handled transparently. • The newly delivered Customer Service Information System (CRM) and business process management (BPM) software can support OAED’s client-centered operational model and the automation of various business processes. The system should be an active part of OAED’s digital ecosystem. Expansion of Analytical Capabilities • OAED’s core MIS (OPS and e-services) should be enhanced with analytical capabilities and matching algorithms. Such tools can assist OAED in measuring and even predicting the need for ALMPs and measuring the quality of these programs’ supply. Furthermore, OAED staff can provide personalized services to the job seekers and the administrative staff to make decisions based on quality data. Enhanced analytical capabilities can support the caseworkers and the job seekers by delivering efficient matching functionality between the unemployed skills and the available job vacancies and between the unemployed skill gaps and the available ALMPs, drawing on the profiling outcome and the data recorded in the unemployed CVs. The same mechanism could be extended to support the provision of recommendations for referrals to other services/ providers, e.g., social assistance, health services to help the client handle labor market barriers as needed, etc. (See Sections 3.3.2 Assessment and 3.3.3 Referrals in the main text) 96 Annex V: ALMPs: upgrading and preparation of new programs In terms of ALMPs, OAED has expressed particular interest in new training programs that build on the lessons from the Elefsina program, including transparent selection criteria and performance-based incentives for both jobseekers and providers, as well as wage subsidy programs, carefully designed to meet local needs on the supply and demand sides, combined with skilling, reskilling and upskilling, as needed. This section goes through the proposed next steps in upgrading existing programs and designing new programs in these two areas. 1. Wage subsidies 1.1 National wage subsidy programs Key features Wage subsidies are commonly used by OAED to encourage the placement of unemployed workers. By reducing the cost of labor, subsidies can create incentives for hiring, which is important in a country that typically has low rates of job creation relative to the numbers of job-seekers. In the context of COVID-19 and the expected slow recovery in the labor market, the relevance of wage subsidies should only increase. There are some standard features that have characterized OAED wage subsidy programs for several years. Several programs are often running at the same time, with specific target groups and sometimes targeted at select regions. The parameters for wage subsidy programs can differ, for example in terms of the level and duration of the subsidy. Only full-time jobs can be subsidized, and firms are only eligible for subsidies if they have had no layoffs in the last 3 months.78 Recently, some innovations have been introduced, including options for subsidy duration and relaxing employer requirements to employ subsidized workers for a period of time after the subsidy has ended. In addition, there has been some streamlining of the business process for subsidy programs, specifically at the front end in the posting/referral/placement stages. These latter improvements have been particularly important, since high transaction costs for employers reduced their incentives for participating in OAED subsidy programs.79 Moving forward, OAED could consider some further reforms to increase the impact of wage subsidies on getting unemployed workers into employment. At a general level, the offering of wage subsidies takes the form of multiple programs at any point in time, each with different target groups and parameters. For employers and workers, there may or may not be a wage subsidy program that they are eligible for. Replacing this model with a continuously open program would simplify the wage subsidy intervention, increase its predictability for employers and workers, and improve its effectiveness. Other reforms could pertain to increasing engagement with employers and reforms in design and business processes. Next steps ▪ Introduce a continuously open program that adjusts the parameters (e.g., level of subsidy) depending on how far the worker is from the labor market and takes into account labor market conditions in setting parameters and numbers to be subsidized. 78 Greece, as other EU members, do not allow companies to participate in wage subsidy programs if they have received state grants over a specific amount according to the de minimis rules. 79 Some of these innovations were introduced in the Elefsina pilot and have been mainstreamed nationally. 97 ▪ Increasing engagement with employers is part of the more general theme of employer engagement that is emphasized in this document.80 A strong engagement will result in more vacancy postings with OAED (for subsidized and unsubsidized positions) and greater take-up rates for wage subsidy programs because of higher employer receptiveness and greater awareness of the programs. ▪ Reforms in design and business processes can increase the attractiveness of subsidies to employers and workers. Some of these reforms have been noted earlier – duration options, relaxing post-subsidy employment requirements, and reducing transaction costs. These have benefits in all labor markets, as would some additional design and process reforms: o Relaxed conditions on employer eligibility, particularly considering whether the no-layoff condition could be restricted to occupations and locations where the subsidy applies. While most European countries do have similar conditions, not all do (e.g., Norway, Cyprus). This could be tested in one or more of the pilots to see its impacts before being considered as a potential general policy. o Expanding the types of jobs eligible for subsidy programs. One reform could be to make part-time jobs eligible for subsidies. This would acknowledge that not only do some employers prefer such work arrangements, but so do many workers. While full-time employment is understandably a goal for OAED, this reform would reflect changes that are going on in the nature of work throughout Europe. Some countries are now more flexible in terms of the types of jobs eligible for subsidization (Norway, Spain, Sweden). Another reform could be to offer subsidies for converting temporary or fixed-term contracts to indefinite ones (as has been done in France and Italy, for example).81 These innovations could also be tested in one or more pilots. o Further improvements in the business processes of the wage subsidy programs. The priority is to further streamline the payment and audit process, e.g., through electronic verification. While there has been recent progress in the front end of the process, one remaining improvement is to expand the job description of the vacancy to provide more detailed information to job seekers and counselors. This should improve the matching process. 1.2 Seasonal wage subsidies and benefits with training Tourism is both a major contributor to the Greek economy and a significant source of employment. In tourist areas like Crete, the challenge is to find either employment, or opportunities for upskilling, for those who work in tourism or related sectors. In 2019, OAED launched a call for the program “Wage subsidies for seasonally unemployed workers (with an option for up/reskilling)” with the aim to provide either employment or upskilling during the offseason for certain sectors. The seasonally unemployed had the opportunity to remain in employment in the offseason while the equivalent of their seasonal benefits are provided as a wage subsidy. Alternatively, part-time wage subsidies could 80 For more details see World Bank (2020): Strategy for effective engagement with employers across the scale-up regions (Output A.2 – Technical Note #3), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012. 81 This recommendation is not meant to negate the utility of temporary term contracts in some situations. OAED does have some experience with wage subsidy programs focused on converting temporary contracts to full-time employment. In 2017, OAED provided a 12-month subsidy to employers in order to convert services contracts to full-time ones, under the commitment that they would retain staff for 6 more months without a subsidy. More recently, in 2018, OAED launched a program through which employers received a 12-month subsidy to convert part-time into full-time contracts. 98 be introduced and complemented by educational programs and training for upskilling. OAED is interested in learning from other countries’ experience to inform new types of programs aimed at seasonal workers. Key features: They can operate to preserve jobs and businesses in the tourism sector, i.e. subsidising off-season periods for businesses and individuals in order to maintain the labor supply in countries where tourism is a major contributor to the economy. Programs to preserve jobs in tourism tend to have conditions attached – like minimum period of employment with an employer. Short training programs can be attractive to seasonal workers if they enhance their prospects at work, or enable them to find other work – either in the tourism sector or beyond. Modular programs that enable recognition and credit for skills attained are helpful so that individuals can build credit towards qualifications. Strong relationships between the PES and employers are crucial to determine their upskilling requirements so that courses can be tailored appropriately. Box 8: Permanent Seasonal Worker Program - Croatia Permanent Seasonal Worker Program - Croatia The goal of the “Permanent Seasonal Worker” program in Croatia82 is mainly to provide financial support to seasonal workers when they are not working, recognizing that the countr y’s important seasonal activity relies on the workforce supply in high season. (In Croatia, 18 percent of GDP comes from tourism.) Intended beneficiaries are people who work continuously for the same employer for at least six months and who will work for the same employer for at least one more season. In addition to the financial help to seasonal workers, payment towards part of the cost of prolonged pension insurance is made to employers in the period seasonal workers are not working, providing they are registered for prolonged pension insurance for a period of 6 months between two seasons. The Government, through the Ministry of Labour and Pension System and the Croatian Employment Service (CES), provides financial support for seasonal workers in the period out of season. The employer has to fill in a request for financial support accompanied by the necessary documentation. The CES evaluates the request and approves the support. This is a social measure aimed at preserving workplaces. The employer can use the instrument for as many seasonal workers as he has employees. Seasonal workers receive financial help for the whole out-of-season period (no more than 6 months), regardless if they work for that period or not. They can work during that period for the employer on preparations for the next season and out-of-season events for which they can be additionally awarded with an amount that is not higher than the average compensation for the unemployed persons in the previous year. 82CEDEFOP: Matching skills, Country Fiche for Croatia, available at: https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/printpdf/tools/matching-skills/country-fiches/croatia 99 During the off-season, workers are also allowed to participate in the educational programs and training offered by the Croatian PES. Although moving seasonal workers to stable jobs is not the main goal of this policy, its structure allows for those aiming to change career paths to have enough time to take upskilling or reskilling training. The popularity of the program has been growing steadily. The number of permanent seasonal workers participating in 2014 was 369, in 2015 1,991 and in 2016 2,835 - and this was compared to 1,476 planned for in 2016. Training is not the main purpose of the Croatia program outlined above – it is more of an optional benefit. An example from Austria focuses on upskilling workers who are prone to periods of unemployment. The goal of this program is to provide upskilling for people with some job experience and only compulsory or lower levels of educational attainment. It can be completed between unemployment spells, making it particularly interesting for seasonal workers. The training is based on competences and aims to ensure long-term and sustainable knowledge building. There are 12 training possibilities (e.g. retailing, financing and accounting). Box 9: Competence with Systems – Austria Competence with Systems - Austria The program has three modules, allowing participants with extensive previous job experiences to gain credit towards training, i.e. experienced workers can start with the advanced courses right away and complete an apprenticeship in a shorter time period. However, it is very flexible: jobseekers can register for a course without the need to commit for all three; depending on the experience and knowledge of the participant they can skip the basic course and start directly the advanced or final course; and participants can choose to take only one of the modules or to take them between seasons. Modules can take between 8-18 weeks. The three modules are: ▪ Basic: prepares participants for further education and to build themselves a career. ▪ Advanced: participants deepen their knowledge of a profession. ▪ Final: prepares participation in the apprenticeship-leaving exam. After the exam is passed, the participants receive their apprenticeship certificate. The program is theory based, as participants already have practical experience. Next steps ▪ OAED already made provision in 2019 for a program to provide either employment or upskilling during the off season for certain sectors. This is done either by maintaining the seasonally unemployed in employment Competence off season, with Systems while the equivalent of their seasonal benefits are provided as a wage subsidy, or by - Austria introducing part-time wage subsidies and complementing them with upskilling training. The program has three modules, allowing participants with extensive previous job experiences to gain credit ▪ OAED towards should training, evaluate the i.e. experienced success workers can of the start 2019 with call the and build advanced on the courses lessons right from away and that experience. complete an apprenticeship in a shorter time period. However, it is very flexible: jobseekers can register for a course without ▪ Short modular training programs could enable seasonal workers to top up their skills and gain credit for the need to commit for all three; depending on the experience and knowledge of the participant they can skip the them. basic course and start directly the advanced or final course and participants can choose to take only one of the modules ▪ Rapid take them or to training between seasons. programs Modules could build take between canskills on the 8-18 of tourism weeks.and workers Theenable three modules them to are: switch to other occupations during their down time, or switch occupations all together until the impact of COVID-19 ▪ Basic: prepares participants for further education and to build themselves a career. on the tourism sector abates. ▪ Advanced: participants deepen their knowledge of a profession. ▪ Final: preparation for the apprenticeship-leaving exam. After the exam is passed, the participants receive their apprenticeship certificate. 100 The program is theory based, as participants already have practical experience. 2. Training Some of the training programs proposed for the scale-up regions are new to Greece. Because of this, and given their wide applicability throughout the country, OAED is particularly interested in focusing on the following programs: ▪ Work experience – with an emphasis on short-term work experience programs aimed at labor market integration for those aged 18-29 who lack hands-on experience in the workplace. At OAED, this intervention spans the responsibilities of both the Training and the Employment departments, as it can be deployed as a stand-alone option, or as an element of vocational training. ▪ Employer-led training programs - designed in accordance with the needs of companies/industries and for workers. ▪ Vocational, including short-term vocational programs - where employers participate in the design of training, particularly focusing on retraining for those unemployed affected by significant structural changes in the local economy. ▪ Seasonal training - addressing the serious problems of seasonal workers by implementing off-season training sessions. At OAED, this intervention spans the responsibilities of both the Training and the Employment departments as it can be deployed as a stand-alone option, or as an element of vocational training. It has been discussed under the section on wage subsidies above. 2.1 Work experience programs Key features Work experience is commonly offered in other European countries as a referral option. In a work experience placement an employer hosts a jobseeker at his/her workplace for a usually short period of time at no cost to the employer. The employer gives experience of a real workplace and if they do not hire the individual themselves then they usually give a reference at the end of the period. There is not always a training plan, although it is good practice to have a plan of what the placement will involve and a workplace supervisor/mentor for the individual on placement. It is seen as a low- risk, minimal bureaucracy program by employers and an effective way to get individuals back into work. It provides a useful foothold in the labor market for jobseekers lacking recent work experience, and reduces the risks employers face by enabling them to gauge the economic outlook and test the suitability of those on placement before they commit to hiring. This could be particularly useful in the current uncertain economic climate. A work experience placement enables jobseekers to develop their skills in a realistic environment . It can be used (as an internship) in combination with theoretical vocational training, it can follow on from short pre- employment or soft skills training, or work experience can be a stand-alone option. It can work well for jobseekers who are employable but where no vacancy is immediately available, and for those who become more employable through soft skills training or as a progression from vocational training. According to European good practice, work experience placements tend to have the following characteristics: 101 ▪ They tend to be relatively short – for example, 2 – 8 weeks in the UK, and 8 – 18 weeks in Austria. They should also be flexible (up to a maximum length rather than a mandatory length) to suit the company. ▪ They are typically subject to an agreement between the PES, the employer and the beneficiary outlining the expectations of each party. ▪ There is some form of monitoring of employers and beneficiaries before/during/after the placement to ensure it is a learning experience for the individual and to address any issues arising from the employer. ▪ Companies are not generally asked to make any payment to participants - participants either retain their benefits entitlement or are paid an allowance equivalent to this. Health, accident and pension insurance are also covered. ▪ There is no obligation on employers to hire participants following a placement, although in some countries, the employer guarantees an interview. ▪ If the participant is not employed following the placement, it is good practice for the employer to provide a reference, outlining the skills and experience gained during the placement. Box 10: UK’s Sector Based Work Academy Program (SBWAP) An example of work experience being used alongside pre-employment training is in the UK’s Sector Based Work Academy Program (SBWAP) SBWAP consists of a) sector-specific pre-employment training of up to 30 hours a week; b) a work experience placement with an employer; and c) a guaranteed job interview linked to a genuine vacancy. SBWAP is run in industries with high volumes of local vacancies, therefore across a broad spectrum of sectors, such as retail, hospitality, transport and logistics, food, care, manufacturing and engineering, agriculture and administration. The length of the work experience placement is determined at the initial discussion between the employer and Jobcentre Plus (the UK PES). The program has been running for several years and evaluation has shown that it provides valuable benefits for both businesses and individuals participating. In order to promote the SBWAP and support the quality of its implementation, the UK PES has produced a Guide for Employers83. This advises that the key to supporting participants during the placement is to ‘treat them as regular employees as far as possible, whilst they remain on benefits, but also recognising that they may initially need additional coaching and supervision’. The Guide stresses the importance of preparing for the placement to ensure that employers and participants get the most from the experience. It suggests that employers: - explain what participants need to do 83Employer Guide https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sector-based-work-academies-employer-guide/sector- based-work-academies-employer-guide. 102 - inform them of management and reporting arrangements - encourage positive working relationships - provide an overview of the business and its values and culture - give a tour of the workplace - provide guidance on using any equipment - provide guidance on health and safety - explain standard workplace practices such as security procedures, dress code, sick leave and absences and break times Since COVID-19 has brought many challenges for employers, sometimes it is not possible to offer the same level of work experience as before. Jobcentres in the UK work directly with employers to explore how they can provide SBWAP participants with a proper practical understanding of what the job will entail. This might include: - a comprehensive tour of the workplace - job shadowing - talking to current employees - the use of a simulated workplace environment, for example a mock workplace in a college or an online environment (for example a call center training system which simulates the actual job). Employer Advisers in Jobcentre Plus are working to help employers to develop other ways to deliver some form of work placement within the constraints brought about by COVID-19. Next steps In order to introduce work experience as a new referral option, OAED needs to consider the following: ▪ Departmental responsibility for design and implementation of work experience - This needs to be assigned within OAED. This intervention spans the responsibilities of both the Training and the Employment departments as it can be deployed as a stand-alone option, or as an element of vocational training. Ideally both departments should collaborate in creating the design rules for the intervention in order to capitalize on prior experience and ensure as much operational synergy as possible for employers, participants and OEAD staff. ▪ A maximum rather than mandatory length for work placements - This is important so that individuals can move on as soon as they get a job either with their host employer, or elsewhere. In the Elefsina pilot, the duration of internships was set at a mandatory 800 hours – if trainees left before then they lost their generous training allowance, which did not incentivize employers to hire them earlier. ▪ Business processes for the new intervention – Procedures should be developed for collecting and posting positions, employer outreach and eligibility conditions, and filling positions, including referral and matching. It is important that employment counselors compile a referral list as soon as possible once the work placement has been notified and approved and that employers make the final selection. Counselors should follow up 103 with each employer and each beneficiary following the interviews to get feedback on the whole process. Since work experience placements are relatively short, should not cause displacement of permanent staff and do not require an employment contract, there is not the same necessity for the de minimis conditions that exist for wage subsidy positions. ▪ Benefit entitlement and allowances – OAED could consider paying those jobseekers not in receipt of benefits some kind of allowance to cover basic expenses for travel and child/elderly care as well as any relevant health/accident insurance, so that individuals and employers are not out of pocket and are therefore incentivized to take up a work placement. ▪ Underpinning IT requirements - these should be specified well in advance of implementation. Experience from the Elefsina pilot showed that lack of timely IT specification and/or late changes to specifications can cause delays. ▪ Monitoring indicators and reporting systems - these should be established upfront to ensure the necessary IT systems can be put in place and that all staff are motivated by understanding the targets they are working towards. ▪ Quality assurance of work experience is best built through a number of strands of activity. Ensuring that a work placement provides a worthwhile learning experience for individuals and a smooth and rewarding experience for employers can be achieved through a number of elements, as outlined below. ▪ All employers should be checked before being approved to host work experience placements to ensure they are capable of offering a safe and worthwhile placement with the necessary supervision and a realistic prospect of hiring staff. The process evaluation of the Elefsina pilot found that many employers did not comply with the conditions set out for the internships even after signing a tri-partite agreement. ▪ Employers, beneficiaries and OAED should sign a joint agreement outlining the expectations of each party according to the terms and conditions decided for work experience (e.g. allowances, duration, break clauses etc). Employers should appoint a named workplace supervisor and OAED should provide a named contact for both the employer and the beneficiary. Individuals should be clear from the agreement what is expected of them. OAED could adapt the code of conduct/tri-partite agreement from the Elefsina pilot for this purpose. ▪ Employers and beneficiaries should be monitored by counselors during and after the program. Monitoring of employers by employer counselors is important to check on progress, deal with any issues that arise and to follow up once the placement is finished. While on placement, beneficiaries should have a point of contact at OAED and should be contacted by employment counsellors should any suitable vacancies arise. If the beneficiary is not hired, the counselor should make a follow up appointment with them to update the Individual Action Plan and discuss next steps. ▪ Some PES build in the requirement for a guaranteed job interview to their work experience programs in order to provide participants with valuable interview experience and allow employers to select the most appropriate candidates for their vacancies. ▪ Recognition of work experience is important to participants. If participants are not employed following their placement, then it is good practice for the employer to provide a reference, or testimonial, outlining the skills and experience gained during the time with them. An exemplar testimonial makes this task easier for 104 participating employers; it also serves to remind them that the placement is intended to provide practical training where new skills were learned. The practice of requiring a testimonial was introduced for training internships in the Elefsina pilot, and an exemplar was created that could be adapted for wider use. ▪ Guidance and support materials aimed at employers can help assure the quality of work experience or practical training. The experience of trainees on internships in the Elefsina pilot was found to be variable. It was therefore recommended that a guide for employers be developed on how to offer a good internship experience. If work experience is introduced as a new intervention, a guide to providing a high quality work placement is worth considering to accompany the exemplar testimonial. 2.2 Employer-led programs The objective of PES training is to move jobseekers into work, therefore in order to be effective, training needs to be closely aligned to labor market demand and designed to meet the needs of hiring employers. The advantage of employer led programs is that they relate directly to employers’ skills needs and to their commitment to recrui t. Employer led training can take place at an employer’s premises or in a training institution or both. Usually the employer/group of employers co-designs the training with the PES and often there is a commitment to provide a work placement as part of the training and to interview or hire a proportion of those trained. Employer led programs tend to be introduced in labor markets where: ▪ there is a mismatch between employers’ needs and the supply of skills available ▪ there is a shortage of skills in some sectors where there are job opportunities ▪ there are vacancies that are difficult to fill. OAED made provision to support an employer-led approach to training in Phase 1 of the ALMP reform project responding to international best-practice and building on the recent experience of the MoLSA. The idea was that a large employer, or a cluster of employers in the Elefsina KPA2 area, could propose to the OAED Training Directorate specific tailor-made training where employers found difficulty recruiting people with the right skills to fill their vacancies. OAED would then co-design and co-deliver84 the training on condition that the employer/s would recruit a proportion of the trainees. The approach was not trialled in the first phase of the pilot, but it was the intention to trial it at a later stage. Key features Employer-led training programs tend to include the following characteristics: Employers are involved in defining their skills needs – e.g. through occupational standards or profiles set by representative bodies, which are then used as the basis for training programs, or through direct consultation with PES training departments or training providers. Employers design or co-design the content of training programs with training professionals. Employers participate in the delivery of training programs or deliver them themselves – e.g. they can deliver training on their own premises, they can offer the practical element of training in a program that includes a mix of See World Bank (2018): Program Document for 1st Phase of New ALMP Model (Output A.2), Administrative Agreement of 84 November 27, 2017 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2017/029. 105 theory and practice, or they can offer work shadowing or workplace orientation visits. Employers choose who trains on their premises. Employers, training institutions and participants often work together to create a training plan that adjusts to the needs of the company and the participant. Employers who participate are committed to hiring and often guarantee to interview and/or hire a proportion of the training participants. Employers have the final say on who they hire. Box 11: Operational Preparation for Collective Employment (POEC) program in France An example of an employer-led program is the Operational Preparation for Collective Employment (POEC) program in France:85 POEC aims to provide rapid access to sustainable employment and to train people for jobs that are difficult for companies to recruit. The main recruiting sectors are healthcare, food services, and personal services. It is aimed at low-qualified jobseekers, especially the long-term unemployed. POEC is part of a national training program that focuses in particular on upskilling unqualified people and tackling the recruitment difficulties of SMEs. It helps jobseekers familiarize themselves with occupations, ensures basic vocational knowledge and strengthening of soft skills, and facilitates jobseekers’ integration into work or in a vocational training pathway. POEC is initiated by industries based on the skills they need that are lacking among jobseekers . Industry and sector representatives direct their skills needs to skills operators called OPCAs; the OPCAs will then take action with the PES to finance the training of jobseekers in the skills identified and to move them into jobs. There are almost 20 OPCAs in France; they are responsible for collecting, pooling and redistributing the financial contributions due by companies for professional training. Each OPCA represents the sector it belongs to (e.g. banking and transport); two OPCAs are cross-sectoral. Before the training, the PES, OPCAs and Professional Federations share information based on labor market analysis of different sectors in order to better identify skills that employers need, and on occupational vacancies that are difficult to fill. Agreements are created at regional level between PES and the OPCA. Through a call for proposals, the OPCA selects a training center corresponding to the training need. In collaboration with the training center and the OPCA (and sometimes with the company itself), the local PES office sets up the ‘POE collective’ by selecting jobseekers with the right profile. They then arrange training sessions and working times in a company. Training is linked to open vacancies and it must be for a permanent position or, at the least, a 12-month temporary vacancy. The training is only delivered to jobseekers registered at Pôle emploi or employees on subsidized contracts. Participants who are eligible for financial support can claim for the PES training allowance (RFPE) or the Return to Employment Training Allowance (AREF). 85Mutual Learning Programme Database of National Labour Market Practices, France - ‘POE collective’: Collective operational preparation for employment, available at: https://ec.europa.eu/social/PDFServlet?mode=mlpPractice&practiceId=42. 106 The PES pays for a substantial part (90%) of the entirety of the training costs. Training is a mix of theoretical instruction and the possibility of an internship in companies. The length of time is based on a maximum of 400 hours, with one third of the maximum being spent in a company. The program is regularly evaluated, and in terms of creating the conditions for success with POEC, findings show that: - Relevant analysis to better target employers’ demands and close collaboration between the PES, the OPCA and the training center in the selection process are crucial. - It is important for PES to thoroughly check whether the jobseeker has the prerequisites to complete the training, e.g. that there is no financial or personal problem that may affect the ability to complete the program. - Involving companies or Professional Federations to give information on their needs or the conditions of the future job to the jobseekers before the training begins can help the jobseeker make the right decision about whether the training is right for them. - When there are no immediate job vacancies, the multiple contacts with companies developed by local PES offices are essential in order to integrate trainees into work, and to prepare ways for filling vacancies in the future. Next steps As noted above, OAED made provision in the first phase of ALMP reform for introducing employer-led training programs. The plan was to invite proposals to the OAED Training Directorate from large firms in the form of a business plan, showing how the training will add value to the local community and to the business itself. Company personnel would work with OAED staff to develop occupational standards and the curriculum framework. The intention was to certify the training as per the main training component in the Elesina pilot, where the ISO Centres were contracted by OAED to design and deliver assessments and certification. An MoU between OAED and the company, or cluster of companies, was to be drawn up outlining how many people would be trained. The expectation was that the company would offer around 50 placements, with at least 10 percent of the total being offered employment at the end of the training. The theoretical part of this type of training would have most likely be run in an OAED training center. In the light of the progress made since Phase 1 of the ALMP reform and in order to make progress on this training approach, OAED could consider the following: ▪ Use the methodology outlined and implemented in the labor market briefs86 to conduct a labor market demand analysis at the four-digit level in target regions. ▪ Identify hiring sectors and occupations using the data sources available (including ERGANI, OAED’s own vacancy information and online vacancy postings). 86See World Bank (2020): Labor Market Briefs for the Regional Units of Thessaloniki, Achaia, Kozani and Heraklion (Output B.3), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012. 107 ▪ Complement this quantitative analysis with systematic liaison and partnership with existing employer representative bodies at national, regional and local level, e.g. Industry Federations and Chambers of Commerce. The establishment of skills councils at KPA2 level has also been recommended as part of improved employer outreach as another channel for understanding skills gaps within the local labor market. ▪ Map the identified hiring sectors and occupations to firms and segment them as per the Employer Engagement Strategy87 in order to select those best placed to offer training that matches the education level and experience of the jobseeker target group. Select large firms to approach directly. Chambers and other employer representative bodies can help to galvanize partnerships among their smaller firms. ▪ Review the design rules originally planned for the Elefsina pilot to see if they are still fit for purpose – in particular the conditions on employers for guaranteeing to employ a proportion of the trainees, and develop the template for the MoU and the training plan plus the certification process as appropriate. ▪ Streamline overall procedures and try to ensure consistency as far as possible across the training program portfolio, including for business processes, benefit entitlement and allowances, underpinning IT requirements, quality assurance, monitoring indicators and reporting systems. 2.3 Vocational, including short-term vocational programs Many countries have responded in innovative ways to the global pandemic, retraining and redeploying their labor force to meet changing labor market demand. Both the OECD88 and the EU89 showcase examples of rapid retraining in essential areas based on immediate needs, but both suggest that lessons can be learned from this approach longer-term, to help workers transition to the post-COVID-19 economy and to address ongoing skills shortages. Many workers made redundant during the crisis may be unable to return to their previous jobs and will need extensive re-skilling to become employable again. The OECD predicts that meeting the reskilling challenge presented by COVID-19 will most likely require boosting investment in adult training and a renewed effort to reach out to at-risk groups. Short vocational courses have proven an effective response to the pandemic, and they seem set to be a strong element of the PES portfolio going forward. OAED has already started to modernize its vocational training offer by: linking it to labor market analysis; revising occupational profiles in consultation with employer groups; modularizing courses; developing a tool to assess and credit prior learning against the modular courses; and introducing end-point assessment and certification. However, there is much to be learned from other countries and the way that they have anticipated demand, targeted jobseekers, assessed their prior skills and experience, and developed training content using innovative delivery methods. 87 World Bank (2020): Strategy for effective engagement with employers across the scale-up regions (Output A.3 – Technical Note #3), Administrative Agreement of February 11, 2019 - EC Contract No SRSS/S2019/012. 88 OECD (2020): Skill measures to mobilize the workforce during the COVID-19 crisis, OECD Policy Responses to Coronavirus, available at: http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/skill-measures-to-mobilise-the-workforce-during-the-covid- 19-crisis-afd33a65/. 89 European Commission (2020): PES measures and activities responding to COVID-19, available at: https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/a5b46760-e743-11ea-ad25-01aa75ed71a1/language-en . 108 Key features Successful introduction of vocational and short courses to meet the needs of the current global crisis and beyond are dependent on a number of factors: Strong mechanisms to anticipate current and future skills demand combined with sustained outreach and partnership working with employers is a pre-requisite for a fast, accurate training response. Aligning retraining efforts with labor market needs is critical. Training should be available and encouraged in skill areas expected to have high demand based on detailed analysis of occupations in demand, and their related skills requirements. It is easier and faster for PES to target training at those jobseekers who already have the necessary skills for essential jobs, and to target in-demand positions that require little specialized training. For instance, in countries like the United States, the fundamentals of contact tracing (the process of identifying and isolating people infected with COVID-19 and their close contacts) were covered in a six-hour online course.90 Effective skills profiling tools are essential to ensure that training is efficiently focused on jobseekers’ skill gaps; such tools also support busy job counselors to direct adults towards skills in demand. Labor market analysis should be combined with effective skills profiling tools and processes for recognizing prior learning to ensure that training is focused on individuals’ skills gaps and delivered in a cost -effective manner. Educational level, or qualifications, are at best a rough proxy for the skills of jobseekers; comparing the skills requirements of jobs in demand with the skills of jobseekers in a more granular way is important for speedy referral and for the design of demand-led training programs. Several countries already have tools that allow individuals, trainers, and counselors to describe jobs in terms of the skillsets they require. For example, O*NET in the United States and ESCO (European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations) in Europe provide descriptions of occupations based on the skills that are needed to perform them. But as the OECD points out, “fewer countries have at their disposal skills profiling tools that allow comparing these in-demand skills with the skills that jobseekers already possess. Fewer still identify appropriate training to fill the identified skill gaps.” Many occupations in demand lend themselves to short skills training, as they are available to those with entry-level qualifications and relatively low skill profiles, meaning that specialist training is not required. For example, analysis conducted by the OECD91 at the start of the pandemic (from March to April 2020), found that half of the top ten in-demand occupations across five English-speaking countries (Australia, New Zealand, Canada, United Kingdom and United States) required no more than a high school diploma, suggesting that skills could be fairly easily transferred. These findings reflect the immediate effect of COVID-19 on the labor market, and the OECD does not suggest this implies that the long-term prospects of low-educated workers are better than high-educated ones as the pandemic eases. Analysing the skills profiles of occupations in demand and mapping them against the skills profiles of jobseekers enables jobseekers to move into appropriate vacancies or be referred to training courses designed 90 OECD (2020): Skill measures to mobilize the workforce during the COVID-19 crisis, OECD Policy Responses to Coronavirus, available at: http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/skill-measures-to-mobilise-the-workforce-during-the-covid- 19-crisis-afd33a65/. 91 OECD (2020): Skill measures to mobilize the workforce during the COVID-19 crisis, OECD Policy Responses to Coronavirus, Figure 2: Growth in job openings by occupation: Australia and New Zealand, Canada, United Kingdom and United States, April 2020, available at: http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/skill-measures-to-mobilise-the-workforce-during-the- covid-19-crisis-afd33a65/. 109 to fill any skills gaps. The OECD illustrates how tools like the O*NET database92 can be used to facilitate this analysis and how the OECD’s Skills for Jobs Database93 can help compare job profiles and target training on skill gaps. Analysis applied at a granular level to compare jobs in-demand with the work experience of job seekers can help to identify skill gaps that can be targeted by short training modules specifically to address those gaps. 92 In the United States, the O*NET database includes information on education, skills, abilities and knowledge required in each finely defined occupation. It also provides a measure of distance between similar occupations “making use of s imilar skills and experience” and “requiring minimal additional preparation“. 93 OECD: Skills For Jobs Database, accessible at: https://www.oecdskillsforjobsdatabase.org. 110 Box 12: Matching the skills of individuals to jobs in demand as a basis for effective short vocational training Several countries have tools that allow jobs to be described in terms of the skillsets they require - O*NET in the United States and ESCO (European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations) in Europe are two examples. The OECD demonstrates how skills profiling tools can compare in-demand skills with the skills that jobseekers already possess, and then identify appropriate training to fill the identified skill gaps. OECD94 conducted analysis at the start of the pandemic (from March to April 2020) that found that half of the top ten in-demand occupations across five English-speaking countries (Australia, New Zealand, Canada, United Kingdom and United States) required no more than a high school diploma, which suggested that skills can be fairly easily be transferred or re-purposed. Out of 40 jobs experiencing the highest growth in job postings, the OECD found that only 16 required a tertiary degree and these were mostly health-related jobs. Where a degree was preferable, a two-year associate’s degree was sufficient. In many cases, a high-school diploma was sufficient and for some jobs, such as sewing machine operators and food concession workers, no high school qualification was required at all. The OECD then went on to demonstrate how the O*NET database could be used as a resource to help re- purpose job seekers. The database includes information on education, skills, abilities and knowledge required in each finely defined occupation. It also provides a measure of the distance between similar occupations “making use of similar skills and experience” and “requiring minimal additional preparation“. OECD selected four of the occupations identified through their analysis as having growing job openings. They then identified the top five skills these jobs would require, and a list of jobs with similar requirements and concluded that workers who have worked in these similar occupations would be well placed to transition to the selected in-demand jobs, or could do so after short, focused training to address any missing skills. The table below shows the results of the analysis. OECD analysis April 2020: Job profiles of selected occupations with growing vacancy postings95 The OECD also demonstrates how their Skills for Jobs Database can help compare job profiles and target training on skill gaps to enable workers to upskill and move to related occupations. 94 OECD (2020): Skill measures to mobilize the workforce during the COVID-19 crisis, OECD Policy Responses to Coronavirus, Figure 2: Growth in job openings by occupation: Australia and New Zealand, Canada, United Kingdom and United States, April 2020, available at: http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/skill-measures-to-mobilise-the-workforce-during-the- covid-19-crisis-afd33a65/. 95 OECD (2020): Skill measures to mobilize the workforce during the COVID-19 crisis, OECD Policy Responses to Coronavirus, Figure 2: Growth in job openings by occupation: Australia and New Zealand, Canada, United Kingdom and United States, April 2020, available at: http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/skill-measures-to-mobilise-the-workforce-during-the- covid-19-crisis-afd33a65/. 111 Skills profiling tools have been used extensively for migrants and refugees, or for specific skill domains such as literacy, numeracy and digital skills. The European Commission has developed a skills profiling tool for third-country nationals; in Italy and Spain, the public employment service has piloted the use of Education and Skills Online, an online version of the OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), to assess the literacy, numeracy and problem-solving skills of job seekers. Although the pilots were successful overall, most users – both respondents and caseworkers – found that its format could be improved to better fit the needs of public employment services, notably by reducing the assessment’s length96. Box 13: Rapid retraining to address immediate demand and re-deploy displaced workers Several countries quickly developed short training programs to address immediate demand pressures caused by COVID-19. In some cases, training programs were targeted at health and medical professionals who needed to upskill or to be redeployed; in other cases, the training programs were designed to enable displaced workers to fill roles in essential services. Public, private, voluntary sectors and charities were involved in the effort. Examples in health and social care include: The Estonian PES, in co-operation with the relevant stakeholders, quickly developed e-learning for care workers. Health Education England created a free e-learning program designed to train the health workforce in infection prevention and control, personal protection equipment, critical care resources, invasive ventilation and intensive care medicine. In France, the Group of Parisian Hospitals (AH-PH) partnered with the start-up, Coorpacademy, to provide free training to thousands of care workers. At the start of lockdown, AH-PH anticipated that they would need to train thousands of trainee doctors and medical students to deploy quickly in hospitals, particularly in intensive care. Coorpacademy created a platform where users could select short training courses in areas where critical shortages were emerging. Box 14: Examples of short training courses for displaced workers Sweden offered short medical-related training to staff laid off from the airline industry, recognising that they are used to working in high-pressure situations and therefore have transferrable skills, including training in first aid, safety, basic communicable diseases and how to care for people97. The three-day course covered communicable diseases, hygiene and treating patients, and included one day of practical training. The training is conducted by Sophiahemmet University in collaboration with SAS, Novare and with funding from the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation. Initially provided in-person at Sophiahemmet University, the training moved online once higher education institutions closed. Graduates are now helping in hospitals by performing administrative tasks, welcoming patients, and cleaning. Building on this model, an initiative has also been launched with Stockholm’s Grand Hotel to retrain hospitality workers to care for the elderly so that they can work in nursing homes. 96 OECD (2020): Skill measures to mobilize the workforce during the COVID-19 crisis, OECD Policy Responses to Coronavirus, available at: http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/skill-measures-to-mobilise-the-workforce-during-the-covid- 19-crisis-afd33a65/. 97 Sjukvårdsutbildning för permitterad personal, avaliable at: https://sjukhus.sophiahemmet.se/press/sjukvardsutbildning-for- permitterad-personal/. 112 The retraining of displaced workers as community health workers in the United Kingdom focused on unemployed young adults already trained in first aid or assessing medical emergencies, such as flight attendants. Community health workers implement prevention and control measures, like organizing social distancing and hand hygiene stations as well as detecting cases and co-ordinating testing. Up to two weeks of training on COVID- 19 and on public health surveillance, combined with ongoing supervision, provides the necessary core skills and knowledge. The competency-based approach to designing courses helped to reduce training durations by leveraging skills that workers already have. In the United States, the Rapid Skilling program aims to transition displaced vocational and technical workers into currently in-demand occupations using a competency-based approach. The program stems from a collaboration between 180skills – a provider of technical and employability training for the manufacturing and logistics sectors in North America – state governments, academic partners, and employers who are in urgent need of skilled workers. The industries served include manufacturing, logistics and distribution, retail, and industrial safety- related occupations. Competency-based online courses were curated into ultra-short-term programs with the minimal amount of skills for initial employment. The programs are particularly aimed at low-skilled, low-income adults and are delivered at a low cost. Also in the United States, the National Retail Federation made free foundational skills training available online to enable workers from “non-essential” retail sectors transfer and work in “essential” retail sectors. The training can be completed in 5-7 hours and results in a recognised credential that completers can post on their resumes. In view of the need to retrain displaced workers over the medium term, the French public employment service (Pôle Emploi) is making available and promoting 150 free online training courses as a way to prepare for employment transition during lockdown. Next steps Through the ALMP Reform project and the sister project on Refugee integration, OAED has already been working with the World Bank on a series of related issues, such as labor market analysis to determine jobs in demand, a methodology to identify and engage hiring employers, a tool to assess the skills of individuals and a process for identifying training based on skills in demand. Progress in all of these areas will combine to enhance and expand OAED’s vocational training offer. Next steps should include: • Build on the methodology used to assess labor market demand in anticipation of the expansion of the ALMP reform to conduct analysis on occupations in demand at the 4-digit level of classification. Combine this with consultation with employers and employer representative groups for further validation of their skills needs. • Use the methodology set out in the Employer Engagement strategy to identify hiring employers and forge partnerships with employers and employer representative organizations, both to gather intelligence on their skills needs and develop partnerships for training delivery. • Use the ESCO resource to map jobs in demand against their skills profiles and use this as the basis to design modular programs. Identify common technical skills that span a number of occupations, transversal skills that many specialties require, like customer service, health and safety at work, plus soft skills – along with soft skills that can be built into most training programs. This helps to prepare jobseekers for changing job markets, supports economies of scale within OAED and develops or adapts modules for these which can be slotted in to a variety of skills. 113 • Develop modules in digital literacy to be used both as stand-alone modules and as part of larger training programs to reflect the changing way that jobseekers access services and the changing demands of jobs. • Boost the availability of training content online and make it available to both the unemployed and those at risk of redundancy. This will be a worthwhile investment, given the likelihood of COVID-19 restrictions continuing for some time and the ability of online training to reach large numbers of jobseekers and workers who require training. • Consider adapting the skills recognition tool that will be used in OAED’s refugee pilot project for OAED’s mainstream work so that the skills of jobseekers can be matched against job profiles in demand, skills gaps identified and tailored training can be developed. This tool has been adapted from the EU Skills Profiling Tool for Third Country Nationals and the existing profiling system of OAED among others. 114