Document of The World Bank Group FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 105606-GH INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION AND MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY PERFORMANCE AND LEARNING REVIEW OF THE COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY FOR THE REPUBLIC OF GHANA FOR THE PERIOD FY13-FY18 October 20, 2016 International Development Association The International Finance Corporation The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank Group authorization. IDA IFC MIGA Vice President: Makhtar Diop Snezana Stoiljkovic Keiko Honda Director: Henry Kerali Vera Songwe Task Team Leader: Sergiy Kulyk Ronke Amoni Ogunsulire Stephan Dreyhaupt ii The date of the last Country Partnership Strategy (FY13-FY16) was September 19, 2013 REPUBLIC OF GHANA - FISCAL YEAR January 1st – December 31st CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Exchange Rate Effective as of September 30, 2016 Currency Unit = Ghanaian Cedi (GH₵) US$1.00 = GH₵ 3.97 US$1.39 = SDR 1.00 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AAA Advisory and Analytics ACBP2 Africa Credit Bureau Program ADP Agricultural Development Project AEF African Enterprise Fund AF Additional Financing AGI Association of Ghana Industries AIG Association of Ghana Industries ALTTFP Abidjan Lagos Trade and Transportation Facilitation Project ASA Advisory Services and Analytics BDCII Bulk Distribution Company CMU Country Management Unit CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment CPPR Country Portfolio Performance Review CPS Country Partnership Strategy CRF Capital Recovery Factor CSO Civil Society Organization DANIDA Danish International Development Agency DDF District Development Facility DFID Department for International Development DHS Demographics Health Survey DOTS Directly Observed Treatment Short Course DP Development Partner DPF/O/L Development Policy Financing / Operation / Loan EAG Agricultural Equipment EBG Ecobank Ghana ECF Extended Credit Facility ECG Electricity Company of Ghana EU European Union FA Education for All ESPV Electronic Salary Payment Voucher EVHA Equity Vehicle for Health in Africa FDI Foreign Direct Investment iii FIP Forestry Investment Program FPSO Floating Production Storage and Offloading FY Fiscal Year GAMA Greater Accra Metropolitan Area GCAP Ghana Commercial Agriculture Program GEF Global Environment Fund GDP Gross Domestic Product GELIS Ghana Enterprise Land Information System GHL Ghana Home Loans GPEG Ghana Partner for Education Grant GLSS Ghana Living Standard Survey GNPC Ghana National Petroleum Corporation GoG Government of Ghana GPEP Global Partnership for Emergency Preparedness GSGDA Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda GSOP Ghana Social Opportunities Project GSTDP Ghana Skills and Technology Development Project GTFP Global Trade Finance Program HSSP Skilled Health Personnel IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICR Implementation Completion Report IDA International Development Association IFC International Finance Corporation IFI International Financial Institution IMF International Monetary Fund IST Implementation Support Team IPF Investment Project Financing IPP Independent Power Producers LAP2 Second Land Administration Project LEAP Livelihood Empowerment against Poverty LGCSP Local Government Capacity Strengthening Project LI Legislative Instrument M&E Monitoring & Evaluation MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies MDGs Millennium Development Goals MFM Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management MIC Middle Income Country MIGA Multilateral Insurance Guarantee Agency MIS Management Information System Assemblies MMcfg Million Cubic Feet of Gas MoE Ministry of Education or Energy MoF Ministry of Finance MSMEs Micro Small and Medium Enterprises NCS Network Computer System NDC National Democratic Congress NDPC National Development Planning Commission iv NEA National Education Assessment NGGL Newmont Ghana Gold Limited NHIS National Health Insurance Scheme NIP National Infrastructure Program NREG Natural Resources and Environmental Governance NSDP National Supplier Development Program OCGBP Oil and Gas Capacity Building Project PBG Policy Based Guarantees PCOA Push Call Option Arrangement PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability PFM Public Finance Management PIP Public Investment Program PIU Project Implementation Unit PLR Performance and Learning Review PPP Public Private Partnership PSD Private Sector Development ROSC Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes SADA Savannah Accelerated Development Authority SAFP Social Accountability Focal Points SCD Systematic Country Diagnostics SDF Social Development Family SLWRMP Sustainable Land and Water Resources Management Project SME Small and Medium Enterprises SOE State-Owned Enterprise SRWSP Sustainable Rural Water and Sanitation Project SSA Sub-Saharan Africa T2/TICO Takoradi II TA Technical Assistant TEN Tweneboa, Enyera, Ntomme TEU Twenty Foot Equivalent Container Unit TF Trust Fund TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training UDG Urban Development Grant UK United Kingdom UNICEF United Nations International Children’s Fund UoM Unit of Measure USAID United States Agency for International Development UWP Urban Water Project VAT Value Added Tax VRA Volta River Authority WAAPP West African Agricultural Productivity Program WAGP West African Gas Pipeline WARFP West African Regional Fisheries Project WBG World Bank Group v Acknowledgements The Performance and Learning Review was prepared under the guidance of Henry Kerali, the Country Director. The core team was led by Sergiy Kulyk, Country Program Coordinator and included Beatrix Allah-Mensah, Sr. Operations Officer, and Neeta Sirur, Consultant. World Bank Group Team members made significant contributions including Errol George Graham; Kathleen G. Beegle; Ivo Imparato; Dilek Aykut; Hardwick Tchale; Suleiman Namara; Shinya Nishimura; Eunice Yaa Brimfah Ackwerh; Ben Gericke; Berengere P. C. Prince; Francisca Ayodeji Akala; Emmanuel Nkrumah; Zaid Safdar; Tomomi Tanaka. The IFC team was led by Ronke Amoni Ogunsulire, Country Manager and Stephan Dreyhaupt, Program Manager led the MIGA team. The PLR benefited from discussions with Development Partners, the Government of Ghana and consultations with the general public. vi Performance and Learning Review of the Country Partnership Strategy For The Republic of Ghana TABLE OF C`ONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. MAIN CHANGES IN COUNTRY CONTEXT 1 III. SUMMARY OF PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION 6 IV. EMERGING LESSONS 13 V. ADJUSTMENTS TO COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY 15 VI. RISKS TO CPS PROGRAM 18 Annexes Annex 1: Updated CPS Results 20 Annex 2: Matrix of Changes to Original CPS Results Matrix 29 Annex 3: Matrix Summarizing Progress toward CPS Pillars 34 Annex 4: Update on Program and Pipeline 41 Annex 5: Allocation of IDA17 and IFC, MIGA Portfolios 42 Annex 6: Outcomes of the PLR Consultations 46 Annex 7: MAP of Ghana 49 vii PERFORMANCE AND LEARNING REVIEW OF COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP STRATEGY FOR THE REPUBLIC OF GHANA 1. This Performance and Learning Review (PLR) assesses implementation progress under the Ghana-World Bank Group (WBG) Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) (Report number 76369) for FY13-16, extends the period of the CPS to FY18, and describes adjustments made to the program to adapt to changes in country circumstances. The Ghana-WBG CPS, discussed at the WBG Board in September 2013, was prepared about two years after the country had achieved middle-income status, following more than a decade of sustained, high gross domestic product (GDP) growth and significant poverty reduction. Against this background, and taking into account the WBG’s twin goals, the CPS sought to support Ghana’s efforts to consolidate its transition to middle-income status through continued growth and poverty reduction, addressing sources of inequality and strengthening key institutions. The CPS program, anchored in Second Ghana Shared Growth and Development Agenda (GSGDA II) priorities and the WBG’s twin goals, was built around three main pillars, namely: (i) improving economic institutions; (ii) improving competitiveness and job creation; and (iii) protecting the poor and vulnerable. 2. Shortly after approval of the CPS, the Ghanaian economy experienced a period of severe external and domestic headwinds that affected development programs and aspirations, necessitating adjustments to the original CPS program content, albeit within the original planned outcomes. The extension of the CPS period to cover FY17 and FY18 is intended to both help revive the Government’s GSGDA II agenda (some aspects of which had to be put on hold during the early years of the fiscal crisis) as well as better align preparation of the future country strategy with the Ghanaian development planning cycle. The remainder of this Review provides more detailed information on implementation of the CPS program to date, the factors shaping adjustments to the program and the changes made. A. Changes in Poverty and Shared Prosperity 3. According to the Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS), nearly 6 million Ghanaians (21.4 percent of the population) lived below the national poverty line in 2013, with 2 million (9.6 percent) living in extreme poverty. The multiple rounds of household survey data show a well-documented long-term steady decline in poverty since the early 1990s. The steady GDP growth over that period was largely pro-poor. Between 1992 and 2006, the poverty headcount fell from 52.7 percent to 31.9 percent, before declining further to 21.4 percent by 2013. Extreme poverty also fell steadily from 37.6 percent in 1992 to 28.5 in 2006, and then to 9.6 percent in 2013. In terms of shared prosperity, the benefits of growth from 1992 to 2013 were broadly shared among the population, although the top percentile received relatively more. 4. In addition to impressive poverty reduction, Ghana achieved notable progress with regard to a number of non-income dimensions of poverty. Primary education enrollment and 1 completion rates were close to universal in 2014 and major improvements were seen with regard to infant and child nutrition. The proportion of underweight children under five years of age was already at 14 percent in 2008, versus an MDG target of 11 percent for 2015. While progress was also seen with regard to child and maternal mortality, improvements fell short of the respective Millennium Development Goals (MDG) targets. 5. Regional disparities in poverty and other measures of well-being are persistent. Income inequality in Ghana did not change from 2006 to 2013 (Gini index of 41), although it had increased from 1992 to 2006. In this measure of inequality, Ghana compares favorably with other African countries; its Gini is still below the median and one of the lowest compared with rapidly growing African countries. However, there are large gaps in poverty and non-monetary wellbeing between rural and urban areas, and the northern and southern parts of the country. Nearly 40 percent of the rural population is poor, compared to just 10 percent of the urban population. The disparities between geographic areas are even more pronounced. The poverty rate in the northern rural savannah region is 55 percent compared to 3.5 percent in the Greater Accra metropolitan area and under 10 percent in the urbanized Southern coastal area. Recent improvements notwithstanding, the poverty rate is far above 40 percent in most districts in the north. As a result poverty has increasingly become concentrated in rural areas and in the Northern part of the country: one out of three poor people lives in the northern rural areas while in 1991 it was only one out of five. A successful shared prosperity agenda will mean tackling growth and redistribution agendas in the north and in rural areas. 6. In summary, the poverty and shared prosperity achievements in Ghana are considered by many to be a success, but there is more to do. Poverty in Ghana has declined from 52.7 percent in 1992 to 21.4 percent in 2013 as a result of sustained, strong economic growth, structural shifts, urbanization, and relative price stability. Non-monetary indicators of well-being have also improved. Yet, three points should be noted. First, while poverty did fall in response to growth and faster than in regional neighbors, the rate of poverty reduction lagged behind achievements in countries in other regions (notably the poverty declines in Asia). Second, a large number of Ghanaians continue to live in poverty and in extreme poverty, and regional disparities persist. Third, the most recent data for poverty are from 2012-2013, and thus do not reflect the economic downturn affecting the country, including macro volatility, high inflation, job losses and slower growth. The worsening of economic conditions since 2014 may have dealt setbacks to past progress in both income and non-income poverty reduction or slowed the pace of continued improvements. For example, there is some evidence (reported in the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA)) of a decline in school completion rates for 2014 that may, in turn, be linked to higher dropout rates associated with family economic hardship. The latest household survey is about to be fielded (starting in the last quarter of 2016) with which to monitor the poverty and inequality trends. A Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) (FY18) will update the poverty and shared prosperity analysis with the 2016/2017 household survey data and draw out implications for the country’s development agenda. B. Key Macroeconomic Developments since 2013 7. Ghana experienced a number of serious external and domestic macroeconomic shocks at the start of the CPS period, which fueled inflation, exacerbated fiscal imbalances 2 and are still adversely affecting the real sector. Lower prices for key exports have persisted with gold prices falling from US$1,600 in 2012 to US$1,200 in 2014 and further to US$1,073 per ounce in 2015, before rising again to US$1,300 in mid-2016. Oil prices declined from US$91 in 2012 to US$54 per barrel in 2014 and further to US$35 per barrel in 2015. These sharply lower prices for Ghana’s key exports as well as energy rationing due to the shortage of electricity generating capacity relative to demand, weighed heavily on both the supply and demand sides of the economy. As a result, GDP growth slowed from 7.3 percent in 2013 to 4 percent in 2014 and to 3.9 percent in 2015. All major sectors experienced lower growth in 2014, but the slowdown was sharpest for industry where growth decelerated from 6.6 percent in 2013 to less than 1 percent in 2014. 8. Over the last years, the chronic fiscal deficits and currency depreciation led to increasing debt and higher inflation (Table 1). The net public debt stock increased dramatically, rising from 38.7 percent of GDP in 2011 to 56.2 percent in 2013 and further to 70.2 percent of GDP by 2014. Furthermore, the public debt figures do not fully reflect the total debt and arrears accumulated by state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The public debt figures only include the publicly guaranteed SOE debt while the non-guaranteed debt accumulated especially by the energy SOEs is estimated to be at least US$1.5 billion (around 4 percent of GDP), posing substantial contingent liability risks. As government increasingly turned to short-term domestic securities, interest rates on 90 day T-bills rose to almost 26 percent, and maturities shortened. On the external side, credit rating downgrades pushed up the costs of borrowing. As a result, total interest payments almost doubled from 3.2 percent of GDP in 2012 to 6.2 percent in 2014. The expansionary fiscal policy also worsened inflationary pressures. Inflation rose sharply, from 8.1 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014—well above the Central Bank’s medium-term target (8 ±2 percent). Table 1: Ghana-Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2012 -2018 Indicator 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Est. Proj. Proj. Proj. Real GDP (% growth) 8.0 7.3 4.0 3.9 3.3 7.4 8.4 Real GDP(non-oil) 7.3 6.7 4.0 4.1 3.7 4.5 5.0 GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 1,683 1,870 1,473 1,402 1,551 1,638 1,752 Consumer prices (annual average % growth) 7.1 11.7 15.5 17.2 17.1 10.0 7.0 Consumer prices (end of period %) 8.1 13.5 17.0 17.7 13.5 8.0 6.0 Exchange rate (end of period L$/US$) 1.90 2.16 3.20 3.89 .. Exports, f.o.b (US$ Millions) 13,552 13,752 13,213 10,357 10,634 12,528 14,188 Imports, f.o.b (US$ Millions) 17,763 17,600 14,600 13,465 13,806 15,160 16,101 Current account balance incl. grants (% of GDP) -11.7 -11.9 -9.6 -7.5 -6.7 -6.1 -5.1 Gross official reserves (US$ Millions) 5,348 4,587 4,349 4,403 5,140 5,976 6,657 Gross official reserves (months of imports) 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.9 3. Broad Money (% Change) 24.3 19.1 33.0 23.3 15.9 15.7 15.8 Credit to the private sector (% change) 32.9 29.0 42.0 24.7 7.4 14.2 14.7 Revenues and Grants (% of GDP) 18.5 16.7 18.4 19.2 19.4 19.2 18.7 Expenditures (% of GDP) 30.1 27.3 28.5 25.4 24.6 22.7 21.7 Wages and Salaries (% of GDP) 8.9 8.9 8.3 7.5 7.0 6.8 6.8 Interest Payment (% of GDP) 3.2 4.7 6.2 6.5 6.3 5.6 5.3 Overall surplus / deficit (incl. grants) -11.6 -10.7 -10.1 -6.9 -5.2 -3.5 -3.0 Central Government Debt (% of GDP) 49.1 56.2 70.2 71.8 67.7 63.6 60.0 3 Public sector domestic debt (% of GDP) 27.2 32.3 31.0 29.0 27.9 26.0 25.1 Public sector external debt (% of GDP) 21.8 24.0 39.1 42.8 39.8 37.7 35.0 Nominal GDP (GHȼ Millions) 75,315 93,416 113,343 139,936 166,768 197,136 225,779 Source: IMF and World Bank Staff calculation, September 2016 9. By end-2014, with economic indicators spiraling downwards, the Government approached the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to help support stronger policy adjustment, restore market confidence and revive the country’s transformation agenda laid out in the GSGDA II. The three-year program proposed by Government for the International Financial Institutions’ (IFI) support was based on the GSGDA II and focused on fiscal adjustment to improve debt sustainability, strengthening of external buffers and elimination of the fiscal dominance of monetary policy while safeguarding financial sector stability. Key elements of the program, which was supported in a coordinated fashion by the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility and a World Bank development policy operation (DPO) series, included: (i) substantially strengthening the fiscal position by mobilizing additional revenues, restraining the wage bill and other primary spending, while making fiscal space for priority expenditures; (ii) making structural changes to strengthen public financial management and expenditure controls, revenue collection, improved inflation management and enhanced monetary policy operations. The World Bank also provided a Policy Based Guarantee to help secure better terms (rates and maturities) for external borrowing through a Eurobond. 10. The fiscal consolidation efforts, which started in 2013 and were strengthened under the program agreed with the IMF, began to show some results as revenues improved and some elements of expenditure were better controlled. In 2013, largely through expenditure measures, including reduced spending on wages and goods and services, the fiscal deficit narrowed to 10.7 percent of GDP (versus 11.6 percent in 2012), but still well above the target of 5 percent. In 2014, the overall fiscal deficit was 10.1 percent of GDP, marginally lower than in 2013. The deficit for 2015 was considerably smaller, amounting to 6.1 percent of GDP. This consolidation was achieved both through revenue and expenditure measures, including, inter alia, rationalization of the Value Added Tax (VAT), a new structure for petroleum taxes and special levies for fiscal stabilization, further actions to control the public sector wage bill and the elimination of petroleum subsidies through liberalization of the regime. 11. Ghana’s banking system remains profitable with adequate levels of capital and liquidity but exposure to energy SOE debt and stress in the microfinance sector are serious issues of concern. After-tax average profitability of the banking system—measured by return on equity—stood at 22 percent in December 2015, down from 32 percent in December 2014. Also, the legacy debt accumulated by the SOEs in the energy sector has started to pose risks to the wider economy as reflected in the rising commercial banks’ Non Performing Loans from 11.2 percent in December 2014 to 19.3 percent in May 2016. A lax licensing regime led to a proliferation of deposit-taking Micro Finance Institutions some of which lacked the capital and management to operate efficiently. At the same time, the Bank of Ghana lacked the capacity to deal with problem banks and systemic events. With technical support from the IMF and the World Bank, the authorities are strengthening their capacity to oversee the banking sector and address risks. In this regard, the Banking and Specialized Deposit-taking Institution Bill and the Deposit Protection Bill were passed by the Parliament in July 2016. 4 12. Ghana issued its fifth Eurobond on September 9, 2016 for US$750 million with a coupon rate of 9.25 percent. The bond, which was more than five times oversubscribed with total orders of US$4.5 billion, has a weighted average tenor of five years. The principal will be repaid in three equal installments of US$250 million in September of 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively. The retirement of the upcoming 2017 redemptions, including with some of the proceeds of the 2016 Eurobond ensures no substantial net increase in the debt stock. Ghana continues to face a high risk of external debt distress based on updated Debt Sustainability Analysis for September 2016. The Government has been trying to extend the maturity of its issuance in the domestic market. In the first half of 2016, these efforts appear to have produced results, as T-Bills rates began to decline, and non-resident participation has substantially increased. 13. Ghana has made good progress on its economic stabilization program with performance on fiscal consolidation better than expected and the external position expected to improve over the medium-term but risks remain. Under assumptions of continued fiscal consolidation—including a deficit target of 5 percent of GDP for 2016, no further major negative terms-of-trade shocks, improved stability in prices and the exchange rate as well as improvement in the electricity supply situation, Ghana’s medium-term economic prospects are expected to improve. The GDP growth rate is expected to reach 7.5 percent in 2017. The oil and gas sector is expected to drive medium-term growth with overall oil production likely to increase by more than 50 percent as the TEN oil field comes into production in 2017, followed by oil and gas production at the Sankofa field in 2018. The gas component of the Sankofa project is also expected to bolster domestic energy supply and support growth in other sectors, including manufacturing. The non-oil sector is therefore also expected to post modest growth. However, Ghana is likely to face high financing costs in both the domestic and external markets as the Central Bank maintains a high policy rate to contain inflation and the US Federal Reserve gradually increases its benchmark interest rate. In addition, the substantial legacy debt of the energy SOEs, excess capacity issues and ongoing operational losses pose substantial fiscal contingent liability risks and risks to the financial sector over the medium term. Furthermore, delays in the resolution of the energy SOE legacy debt as well as reforming the energy sector to prevent further arrears, technical problems in the oil sector, continued weak commodity prices and capital flows, and the risk of fiscal slippage ahead of the December 2016 election are major risks for Ghana’s economic outlook. C. Emerging Country/Development Issues 14. A principal change/challenge facing Ghana is the sharp and sustained decline in the global price of commodities, especially gold, oil and gas, which has significantly altered the country’s prospects for windfall revenues. The mining industry of Ghana accounts for 5 percent of the country's GDP, and minerals make up 37 percent of total exports, of which gold contributes to over 90 percent of the total mineral exports. Gold production in Ghana has declined over the past few years, and the sector remains exposed to substantial downside risks. By 2015, the country was producing about 102,000 barrels of crude oil per day and 125 million cubic feet (2014) of natural gas per day and the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) had plans to increase output of oil (by 2020) to 240,000 barrels per day and gas to 400 million cubic feet per day. While rising output in the oil and gas sector is expected to boost exports and 5 accelerate growth over the medium term, the oil sector’s long-term potential is limited. Ghana’s proven oil reserves are relatively small, and oil production is expected to slow significantly after 2021. The rupture of the Nigerian gas pipeline highlighted Ghana’s energy vulnerability, strengthening the resolve to develop gas reserves to meet domestic needs. 15. Challenges and priorities identified in the GSGDA II and the CPS also continue to be prominent in shaping the development agenda to achieve shared prosperity and reduce poverty, albeit with some shifts in timing and emphases. A key challenge, and one that will require concerted effort over an extended period, is to strengthen economic institutions and public financial management, including strengthening natural resource governance given the economy’s strong dependence on extractive industries and agricultural commodities. Although Government’s focus over the 2013-2015 period was (naturally) directed more to addressing the fiscal and debt crisis, these longer-term issues are once again high on the agenda as important complements to stabilization measures. Indeed, the initial ineffective response to the shocks and the ensuing crisis highlighted the importance of effective economic institutions—an implicit validation of the CPS’ focus. Secondly, the CPS emphasis on enhancing overall competitiveness and job creation has assumed even greater importance and urgency, since the recent terms-of- trade shocks, commodity-price volatility generated considerable uncertainty regarding the oil sector’s future economic contribution. Finally, as discussed in the section on poverty trends, a large number of Ghanaians still live in poverty and the trend towards steady poverty reduction may have stalled or even reversed given the sharp slowdown in economic growth and lower per capita income during the CPS period. Appropriate policies and programs to protect poor households and increase their opportunities to build human capital and gain employment continue to be of critical importance for the foreseeable future. Addressing inequality –whether related to gender, ethnicity and place of residence or access to key services -- is also an important challenge. 16. The number of operations in the Ghana portfolio has been relatively stable over the CPS period but there has been significant growth in the volume of commitments. There are currently 25 operations in the World Bank portfolio, the same number as at the start of the CPS period in FY13, while commitments have increased by 67 percent -- from US$1.50 billion in FY13 to US$2.14 billion in FY16. In addition, Ghana is benefiting from five regional operations (representing a commitment of US$383 million), bringing total IDA and leveraged resources operations benefiting Ghana to slightly over US$2.51 billion. In addition, FY15 saw the introduction of new instruments such as guarantees as part of the World Bank Group’s commitment to support Ghana’s transition to lower middle-income country status. In addition to the IDA and regional commitments, there are over 50 trust fund activities delivered or in progress since FY13. All analytical work planned under the CPS have been delivered or are on course. Overall, there are 45 Advisory Service and Analytics (ASA) that fall into this category. Annex 5 provides details of all International Development Association (IDA), International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Multilateral Insurance Guarantee Agency (MIGA) operations for FY13-FY16. 6 17. Exchange rate movements and fluctuations in performance influenced Ghana’s allocations in IDA17. While expecting an allocation of more than US$900 million equivalent, based on notional figures available in the first year of IDA17, the amount was reduced by about 29 percent due to poor macro performance (and consequently reduced ratings in the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA)), and exchange rate movements in FY16 compared to FY15. However, following implementation of the macro stabilization program the CPIA was upgraded in 2016 and led to higher allocation of about US$770 million equivalent for FY15- FY17. These changes in IDA allocations affected the pipeline, forcing adjustments to planned programs and projects in FY16. 18. Portfolio performance has improved since FY14, especially with respect to disbursement ratios. The number of problem projects has varied between three and five over the CPS period, representing 12-20 percent of the portfolio. As of mid-2016 there were three potential problem projects, each of which has an agreed action plan that is monitored on a monthly basis to resolve implementation issues in a timely manner. Disbursements have been improving steadily over the CPS period from 20.8 percent of commitments in 2013, to 22.4 percent in 2014, 27 percent in 2015 and further to 32.1 percent in FY2016 -- the latter being the highest level achieved in at least a decade and 4 percent above the agreed target of 28 percent. A cumulative total of over US$1.3 billion has been disbursed over the FY13-FY16 period. In June 2016, the undisbursed balance stood at about US$655 million or 35 percent of total commitments. However, since the average age of the portfolio is over four years, the disbursement level of 65 percent is still relatively low, implying the need for sustained efforts to address implementation challenges. 19. A number of systemic challenges continue to affect the Ghana portfolio, despite recent improvements. The main challenges encountered during the CPS period include delayed effectiveness of approved projects and frequent changes of project staff at national and district levels. For example, recent improvements in project performance could be jeopardized in FY17 given that the upcoming general elections in December 2016 will likely lead to substantial changes in government officials and project staff even if the incumbent is returned to power. Delays in appointments and the steep learning curve for newly appointed officials often leads to substantial delays in project implementation. Finally, there is a need to address ongoing project implementation issues, including weak contract management, cost overruns and delays in payment of compensation to project affected people due to resettlement, for mostly infrastructure based projects. 20. Several measures have been introduced since FY14 to address systemic and specific portfolio issues. Firstly, an annual Country Portfolio Performance Review (CPPR) has been instituted in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, sector Ministries and the Project Implementation Agencies to thoroughly assess portfolio performance, identify challenges and make recommendations for improved performance of individual projects. The CPPR identifies agreed actions with specific time-lines and clear responsibilities for follow-up actions that are monitored every two months. Secondly, a number of proactive measures were introduced, including organization of periodic Implementation Support Team (IST) meetings between the Ministry of Finance, Country Management Unit (CMU), fiduciary and project teams to review under-performing projects on an ongoing basis rather than solely during missions. Thirdly, a 7 monthly Executive Portfolio Summary report note is developed and shared by the CMU with the World Bank’s team and MoF’s World Bank Unit to help ensure that task teams especially are fully informed of the status of their projects. Together with fiduciary clinics and clear CMU operations guidelines, these measures have helped to improve project performance and portfolio management, which have been adopted by other country teams in the Africa Region. 21. Ghana is IFC’s third largest country exposure in Sub Saharan Africa in terms of committed investment volume. IFC’s strategy in Ghana focuses on enhancing competitiveness through improved infrastructure (energy and transportation particular), job creation by supporting MSME growth thorough improved access to finance, and equitable growth through improved agricultural productivity. During the period July 2013 – June 2016 IFC delivered a substantial program focused predominantly in the energy, financial, transport, tourism and real estate sectors. IFC added nine new projects with commitments amounting to US$339.4 million of IFC’s own account and US$503.2 million in mobilization. As of June 2016 IFC’s own account committed investment portfolio reached US$859.9 million with US$474 million outstanding. IFC’s investments have contributed to the direct employment of at least 21,618 people as of 2014. This figure is estimated to have grown to 41,258 in 2015. IFC’s contributions in the WBG country strategy and during the CPS period have concentrated mostly on Pillars 2 and 3. 22. MIGA currently has a gross exposure of US$278 million in a portfolio consisting of four projects to support private investments in various sectors, including telecommunications, energy and water. The MIGA portfolio is affected by the challenges faced by the economy and institutional weaknesses. The pipeline of future potential projects is promising and significant, with a few projects mainly in the energy and infrastructure sectors. Assuming current challenges are overcome in a timely manner, MIGA could increase its exposure substantially, hence contributing to supporting the Government’s development strategy in full alignment and partnership with IDA. A. Evolution of Partnerships and Leveraging 23. The CPS implementation period was marked by the efforts of Ghana’s Development Partners (DPs) to transform their role from acting merely as aid providers to focusing on means of supporting Ghana’s own efforts to foster trade, investment, and business growth. A number of major partners worked together to review their development plans and revamp the architecture for donor coordination and dialogue to more fully recognize the emerging importance of the private sector and newer, non-traditional partners, drawing on lessons from experience in comparable countries. By and large, most bilateral and multi-lateral donors sought to shift their programs towards helping the government to strengthen institutions and management systems and to promote policies and approaches that would more effectively leverage the effectiveness of support of all donors. Coordinated, sector-wide approaches were promoted in many sectors, including health, education, social protection, public sector management, debt management and financing, and the management of key utilities. Through a comprehensive stakeholders’ engagement, the WBG led the review of the implementation of Ghana’s private sector strategies and interventions over the past five years with emphasis on implementation and accountability mechanisms. The outcome of this review will shape how 8 Ghana will implement the next generation of private sector development (PSD) policies while fostering a dynamic and inclusive Public-Private Dialogue. B. Progress Toward Achieving CPS Outcomes By Main Focus Areas 24. Despite the unanticipated focus on re-establishing macroeconomic stability over the first two years of the CPS period, progress in achieving the original objectives laid out in the results framework has been overall good – despite important changes to the CPS program to address changes in the socio-economic context and new government requests (Section IV). To the extent that several expected outcomes were related to ongoing operations or ASA, the originally expected results have already been achieved or remain feasible within the extended CPS time frame. In a few cases, e.g., with respect to energy, the results anticipated at the time of CPS preparation no longer correspond to changed country realities and have, therefore, been altered or dropped as a part of this PLR process. 25. The original CPS results framework laid out fourteen outcomes and related milestones, which are reviewed in this section. The outcomes were mostly derived from ongoing World Bank operations and ASA and laid out within three pillars (focus areas) as follows:  Pillar 1: Improving Economic Institutions comprised five outcomes related respectively to fiscal policy-making capacity, statistical capacity and analysis, land management, preparation for the oil and gas era, and decentralization and local governance;  Pillar 2: Improving Competitiveness and Job Creation comprised seven outcomes including improvements in education, skills for non-traditional sectors, energy security and diversification of energy sources, road transport and trade logistics, agricultural growth and productivity/marketing gains, adoption of new agricultural technologies and management of fish and aquatic resources;  Pillar 3: Protecting the Poor and Vulnerable included three outcomes related to reduction in inequality and improved coverage of health care, water and sanitation services. Progress with respect to these original outcomes and related WBG instruments is discussed below in general terms. Annex 1 lays out a revised framework that takes into account changes to the program and the proposed new timeframe. Annex 3 records more specific information with respect to each objective and the indicator set in 2013. Pillar One: Improving Economic Institutions 26. Overall progress under this pillar has been satisfactory, although some aspects of the program had to be modified or postponed due to changes in country circumstances. Four out of the five original objectives set under this pillar remain relevant (albeit with some changes in emphases/timing) and have been achieved or are on track to being achieved by the CPS’s new end-date (June 2018). The overarching aim of this focus area was to reduce fiscal volatility and support future growth by strengthening key public institutions with influence over the business climate, especially in key areas such as energy and agriculture. Progress on each of the five objectives is summarized below:  With respect to strengthening fiscal control and financial management, important strides have been made (with support under the DPO I, the public finance management (PFM) 9 Reform project and related ASA) including a shift to program-based budgeting and the use of a transparent IT platform for budgeting by nearly all Municipal and District Assemblies (MDAs). Overall budget control has improved, likely leading to a ‘B’ or better PEFA assessment –i.e., fully meeting the original CPS objective. Attention to fiscal consolidation, transparency and public debt management remains a high priority and the CPS program in this area has been intensified and reflected in the results framework.  The outcome concerning promotion of evidence-based policy making through strengthened capacity for data collection, monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and analysis was also substantially achieved during this CPS period. With support from Department for International Development (DFID) and Statistics for Results program grants as well as an IDA Statistical Development Project, a Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and Labor Force Survey were completed and disseminated in a timely manner. Both surveys and the subsequent analyses helped address key gaps in information pertaining to poverty and shared prosperity. The Ghana Statistical Service also independently (for the first time) produced reports on poverty, labor force statistics, child labor and others and plans to undertake the seventh GLSS during 2016.  CPS milestones with regard to improving land tenure and administration – namely, passage of enabling laws and regulations – had not been achieved by mid-2016. However, the Cabinet of Ministers approved a Land Use and Spatial Planning bill in 2016, which is serving as the basis for the new laws/regulations in this area. The legislation remains highly relevant to Ghana’s efforts to revitalize growth and reduce rural poverty and will be submitted to Parliament in 2017. The IDA Land Administration Project II is also helping to increase the efficiency of land titling and collection of data on time required for title registration. Given the advancements achieved in establishing the Ghana Enterprise Land Information System (GELIS), the end target of three months will likely be achieved by the end of the extended CPS.  The fourth outcome – preparing for the oil and gas era -- under this CPS pillar was predicated on the assumption that Ghana’s oil and gas industry would develop rapidly during this CPS period, driven by large private investments in the sector. As such, the CPS sought to strengthen the capacity of the relevant Ghanaian institutions engaged in oversight of the sector to regulate investment and production activity as well as achieve greater transparency with respect to contract awards. However, as previously discussed, the drop in global oil prices depressed private oil production, making the originally planned-for outcomes a lesser priority than had been anticipated at CPS preparation. Moreover, high-level political attention was directed more to management of the fiscal crisis, at least in the early years of the CPS. Even so, the focus on enhancing the governance of GNPC remained, with interventions under the World Bank’s DPL and over 100 GNPC and Ministry of Education and Energy (MoE) staff were trained under the Gas and Oil Capacity Building Project. Pillar Two: Improving Competitiveness and Job Creation 27. Progress with regard to the competitiveness and job creation pillar has been more uneven, reflecting the fast-changing economic context, the constrained fiscal environment and the focus of policy-makers on restoration of macro stability. This pillar sought both to promote growth and, by focusing on poorer regions or low-income population groups, to help 10 ensure broader participation in growth. CPS outcome targets were largely met in education/skills development and agriculture while delays and/or program adjustments affected the energy and transport objectives.  Insufficiency of educated and/or skilled workers – especially outside the greater Accra region and the Southern districts -- has been an important impediment to economic development and, hence, a focus of the CPS program. Given high education enrollment rates overall, the CPS focused on reducing disparities in education, with principal emphasis on closing the quality gap between better-off and poorer districts. The targets set to measure improvements in the latter, focusing on publishing report cards for public schools and children’s test scores in English and mathematics, were all met or exceeded by the end of the 2015 school year, with support, inter alia, from the Global Partnership for Education project, and the IDA-financed Secondary Education Improvement Project, complemented by grants from DFID, United Nations International Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and other donors.  Positive results were also achieved with regard to skills development in firms participating in the IDA-financed Skills and Technology project, which sought to improve worker productivity through on-the-job training via a public-private partnership model. An independent Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA) evaluation of worker productivity in firms participating in the project(s) showed that worker productivity (changes in value added per hour of work) increased by nearly 50 percent by mid-2015 -- versus the CPS target of 40 percent for mid-2016. IFC supported the expansion of Ashesi University, which offers courses in computer science, MIS, and business administration. This helped increase access to high-quality education for Ghanaian youth. The University offers financial aid to about 45 percent of its students.  Given the high cost to the economy of the frequent blackouts experienced in recent years, the CPS emphasized actions aimed at increasing the availability of electricity and diversifying the energy mix. The CPS originally focused on the reduction of power losses along the principal transmission interconnection with Nigeria but this focus shifted in 2014 with Government of Ghana (GoG) emphasizing the development of cleaner domestic resources, especially off-shore natural gas in the Sankofa field, which is being developed with World Bank Group support (see below). To support diversification of energy sources, IFC helped expand the production capacity of the Takoradi II (“T2� or “TICO�) by converting to dual fuel capability, thus allowing the plant to generate an additional 110 MW of power without incremental fuel consumption. IFC’s engagement with TICO further supported clean energy production in Ghana, with an estimated avoidance of 269,710t CO2/year.  A key element of this pillar – opening up access to markets through better road connectivity (especially for the poorer, rural northern region) and improved logistics at border crossings – has seen setbacks and reversals over the CPS period. In view of the highly constrained fiscal situation over the past three or so years, and despite continued support from ongoing IDA Transport operations, funding of planned road maintenance activities has been eroded in real terms. In January 2016, Parliament approved an increase in the fuel levy for the benefit of the Road Fund, which could ease the funding situation going forward. However improvements in sectoral performance will also require better governance and transparency in the management of roads contracts. Some reductions have 11 been made to the number of roadblocks on the Abidjan-Lagos corridor in Ghana (from 30 in 2013 to 18 at present) to facilitate transport, but this is far short of the CPS goal (three roadblocks). The CPS target cannot be achieved until after construction of a customs intervening station at Enyaano is completed. IFC has been actively engaged in facilitating Ghana’s access to overseas markets through support for infrastructure improvements at the Tema port (Section V).  Improving land and water management is an important CPS goal, focused on helping poor rural communities (especially in the north) to reduce the volatility of agricultural production via sustainable, natural methods that reduce the impacts of droughts and floods. Good progress has been made in this area through a combination of IDA credits (from GCAP and bilateral donors), and grants (notably the Sustainable Land and Water Management – SLWM - project). The CPS target for 2016 (1,500 ha) was surpassed, with about 2,500 hectares already benefitting.  Another CPS effort to improve the income and livelihoods of Ghanaian smallholders aims to promote the adoption of new, sustainable agricultural technologies to improve the resilience of cash crops to droughts and pests. The program, supported by the regional West Africa Agricultural Productivity program, has been very successful thus far, with demand from smallholder farmers (over 50 percent of them, women), far exceeding available funding. The CPS interim target of covering about 2,000 ha with new technologies has been exceeded by over 1,000 ha, with coverage approaching 3,090 ha by January 2016. It is likely that the project’s end-outcome of reaching at least 250,000 smallholder farmers has also been surpassed, but final validation will need to await completion of the annual review. In light of this success, two Additional Financing (AF) Global Environment Fund (GEF) grants were recently approved, with the goal of further expanding coverage to 15,000 ha by 2020. In parallel, IFC, through its investee (Vegpro Ghana), reached 399 farming units by setting up a 1,070 hectares (ha) commercial farm to produce vegetables, including support for irrigation (768 ha), procurement of farm equipment and refrigerated vehicles and construction of a packing house for the export of vegetables to United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU) markets. The company employs about 400 people, 90 percent of whom are women.  The CPS sought to reverse the overexploitation of fish and other aquatic resources by commercial interests in an effort to replenish depleted stocks and boost the livelihoods and incomes of small fishermen -- one of the poorest groups in Ghana. A regional IDA project, the Western Africa Fisheries Program, is supporting Government in this area and a moratorium on the issuance of new commercial fishing licenses was instituted since 2013. Moreover a new Fisheries Management Plan to contain illegal fishing was adopted. Despite these apparently positive steps, concern remains that overfishing will not be adequately contained due to a lack of political will as well as inadequate capacity to implement existing policies. Pillar Three: Protecting the Poor and Vulnerable 28. Progress under this pillar of the CPS has been strong overall, with one objective already achieved, one on track and two delayed for completion by the new CPS end date (June 2018). In broad terms, results have been positive with respect to social protection and health care services, in part because of the continuing emphasis on maintaining an adequate 12 safety net (as reflected in the prior action and triggers of the DPL series) despite the fiscal difficulties that Ghana has had to overcome. Progress on water and sanitation has been slower. Developments within this Pillar are discussed below in more detail.  As part of the effort to address growing inequality along the North-South divide in Ghana, the CPS sought to expand the safety net and increase its effectiveness in the poorer northern part of the country as well as improve the targeting of benefits to women, children and disabled persons. IDA support for this objective has been provided through the Ghana Social Opportunities Project (GSOP), for which an AF was approved in 2015. The GSOP has been helping to strengthen Ghana’s premier social protection programs, including for labor-intensive public works and cash transfers, with respect to overall management and operations, payment mechanisms and monitoring and evaluation. These improvements, in turn, have enabled significant, appropriate expansion of both safety net programs – cash transfer beneficiaries have more than doubled from 70,000 (2014) to 148,000 beneficiary households by 2015, significantly improving coverage of orphans/vulnerable children, the elderly and the disabled. The public works program completed a total of 436 subprojects by end-2015, with 7,879,360 person days of employment created versus a CPS target of 45,000 person days for 2016. The cash transfer and labor-intensive public works programs have 70 percent and 61 percent female beneficiaries, respectively. In addition to improvements in beneficiary reach, the projects have also benefited from strengthening of the social protection system with the introduction of management information systems (MIS), electronic payments and launch of the Ghana National Household Registry. These new systems have led to efficiencies in program management and implementation.  The second objective under this pillar sought to reduce gender and urban-rural disparities in health status by improving maternal health in underserved rural areas and increasing coverage of water and sanitation services in rapidly growing cities and towns as well as selected rural areas. Outcomes to date with respect to maternal health have exceeded CPS expectations on all measures (attendance of health personnel at deliveries and pre-natal visits) as measured by the 2014 DHS. However, it is difficult to attribute this success to IDA project support as the ongoing IDA operations in the health sector prior to 2014 were not directly engaged in the maternal health interventions. A new Maternal and Child Health and Nutrition Improvement Project became effective only in 2015 and has been slow to start-up. CPS targets with respect to new piped water connections in poor urban and rural areas and improved rural sanitation coverage were to have been achieved with support from the IDA–financed GAMA Water and Sanitation Project and the Sustainable Rural Water and Sanitation project. Due to delays in implementation progress towards these targets is currently behind schedule, especially for urban water and rural sanitation. A. Main Lessons from the CPS to date 29. Experience with implementation of the CPS program to date suggests a number of key lessons, which will not only inform the implementation of the extended CPS but also the design of future Country Partnership Framework. These lessons are discussed below as 13 they have influenced some of the changes made to the program and will be taken into account for the remaining CPS period. 30. The CPS program needs to achieve an appropriate balance between flexibility and achievement of longer-term goals. Given that the structure of the Ghanaian economy makes it vulnerable to considerable volatility, there is clearly a need for the WBG to be flexible and nimble in supporting the Government to respond to emerging needs, including from exogenous shocks. At the same time, the WBG has a strong comparative advantage in helping Ghana to address the medium- and longer-term structural issues and development priorities, including diversification of the economy, that can help reduce volatility in the future, accelerate inclusive growth and sustainably reduce poverty. 31. Close attention must be paid to governance (including transparency and fiduciary responsibilities) and capacity considerations in program/project design. Experience in some sectors, notably fisheries and roads, suggests that even when policies/regulations are favorable to the achievement of desired outcomes, governance problems and limited capacity can seriously constrain progress. Continued emphasis on capacity building (technical and fiduciary) through stand-alone activities and within each operation is important, as is adequate implementation support and monitoring. In addition, more attention should be given at the design stage to assessing the role of vested interests and ensuring that the level of political commitment and ownership is sufficiently strong to overcome these where needed. 32. Policy Based Guarantees (PBGs) can play a very useful role in leveraging limited IDA resources to manage fiscal consolidation, but should be used only selectively. Given limited IDA resources available to Ghana during this CPS period (IDA17), the PBG – the first one ever done with IDA resources -- played a very useful role in helping the country to manage its macro challenges effectively. In addition, the PBG has also helped secure financing in the international market at more favorable maturity terms, than might otherwise have been available. However, one of the early lessons from the use of this instrument is that if PBGs are not supported by credible macro reform efforts their benefits are not sustainable in the medium to long term. Given Ghana’s high risk of debt distress, a waiver was required to allow the deployment of this IDA instrument. Therefore, the Bank should continue to be vigilant in monitoring macro developments in close coordination with the IMF and other partners. 33. Weak coordination within the Government causes DPO-led reforms and large multi-sector programs to have mixed impact. Although specific budget provisions are generally available to help carry out sector reforms, poor intra-government collaboration and coordination continue to pose challenges to implementing the DPO supported reforms by the line ministries. In addition ring-fenced Project Implementation Units (PIU) have been able to deliver single sector type investments but prove ineffective in implementing multi-sector or policy- oriented programs that now form the bulk of the portfolio. WBG will continue to encourage greater coordination to reduce the increasing fragmentation and transaction costs while using country systems. 34. ASA can play a valuable role not only in guiding the design of lending operations but in maintaining a dialogue on key development concerns even when there is a hiatus in 14 new lending. For example, ASA proved to be critical in furthering the dialogue on economic management in the first years of the CPS period, even when some planned operations did not go forward in FY14 as originally anticipated. As a result, a redesigned capacity building project for economic management has been prepared and approved by the Executive Board in early FY17. Similarly, ASA has played an important role in maintaining an active dialogue in the financial sector despite a decision to drop a planned DPO for the sector. 35. More attention should be given to improved coordination between Bank and IFC programs, in critical sectors where there are natural complementarities. In the first instance, efforts should be made to build on recent coordination in the energy sector (e.g., Sankofa operation) to jointly develop a program that better supports Ghana’s energy objectives through identifying opportunities for coordinated action on sectoral policy and appropriate private sector development efforts. Similarly, synergies should be exploited in the agriculture sector, especially with respect to sustainable agricultural technologies, support for cultivation of non-traditional crops and agricultural exports. 35. As noted at the outset of this document, the Ghanaian economy was buffeted by strong headwinds during this CPS period, which affected the Government’s agenda and, by extension, the CPS program, albeit still within the overarching framework of the GSGDA II for 2014-2017 and the existing CPS pillars. The GSGDA II is a widely consulted, comprehensive and ambitious medium-term development strategy for growth and poverty reduction. However, with the deterioration of the domestic economic environment since the Agenda was formulated, more attention had to be given, and rightly so, to regaining macroeconomic stability. With the fiscal crisis now under better control, attention is turning to reviving the structural reforms that could shift GDP back to the job creation and poverty reduction goals envisaged under the Agenda. Importantly too, given limited coordination and implementation capacities and severely limited fiscal space, priorities in the Agenda are more focused, including (i) developing prioritized public investment programs; (ii) elaborating a results framework consistent with the priorities; and (iii) strengthening the institutional capacity of the National Development Planning Commission (NDPC) and the Ghana Statistical Service to improve the quality, reliability and coverage of statistics. 36. In light of Government’s commitment to pressing ahead with the fiscal agenda while also reviving the GSGDA II, the Government requested that the World Bank Group support both objectives, including by extending the time-frame of this CPS by two years to align with the GSGDA programming cycle. Alignment of CPS preparation/implementation with Ghana’s own development planning cycle would not only help to ensure greater consistency between Government priorities and CPS support, it would also enable stronger Government ownership of the CPS program and allow for coordinated monitoring and measurement of key results. Extension of this CPS period also has a number of additional benefits -- not least, a clearer picture of IDA resources available for Ghana under IDA18 and sufficient time to undertake the new analyses needed (Poverty Assessment and SCD) to inform the next development plan under preparation by Government of Ghana and underpin the next CPS. New data on living standards (GLSS 7) will become available only in about mid-2017, providing a 15 more accurate picture of the impact of the fiscal crisis and economic downturn on Ghana’s population in terms of changes to poverty and the availability of opportunities for participation in broad-based growth. 37. The main changes to the CPS program -- which were designed to sharpen WBG support for fiscal consolidation and renew support for the medium term development agenda following a relative hiatus during FY14 -- are described below by CPS Pillar and summarized in Annex 2. Annex 1 contains the revised PLR results framework, which has been updated to reflect some of these changes and shifts in priority. The revised PLR results framework more systematically incorporates outcomes expected from IFC’s activities in Ghana, given that some IFC interventions are in place and outcomes can be better anticipated. 38. While not deviating substantially from its original aims, changes have been made to the composition and sequencing of the Pillar 1 program to support a more ambitious fiscal consolidation program. As mentioned in Section III, the scope of the planned DPO series has been extended well beyond the expected focus on financial sustainability in the energy sector to address other difficult areas such as the wage bill, arrears management and SOE governance. These new areas had been deemed important at the CPS design stage, but the political will to address them coalesced only after the fiscal crisis unfolded and early attempts by the authorities to stem it proved unsuccessful. The World Bank also approved an IDA Policy Based Guarantee (PBG) for US$400 million (US$100 million of its country allocation) which had not been foreseen in the CPS. The PBG guaranteed Ghana’s sovereign bond issuance of US$1 billion which allowed Ghana to access international capital markets at longer maturity tenors than previously possible, in the wake of downgrades of its sovereign debt by credit ratings agencies. Two FY14 capacity building projects, which were to complement the original DPO series were dropped due to MOF’s focus on the emerging crisis. They have been replaced by a new operation, the Economic Management Strengthening Project (FY17) that will help strengthen budget planning, debt management and revenue administration. In addition, a planned DPO in the financial sector was dropped in view of the more urgent needs with respect to fiscal consolidation and debt management. Finally, in order to support Ghana’s longer-term efforts to better manage key natural resources (Pillar 2), four new grant-funded operations were added to the program for forest management, disaster risk management, land and water resource management and a small grants facility – the Dedicated Grant Mechanism. 39. A key driver of adjustments to Pillar 2 of the CPS is the changed perspective with regard to energy. In light of the substantial drop in oil prices, the uncertainties associated with Nigerian fuel supplies and the availability of domestic natural gas to meet the economy’s demand for electricity, a major project for natural gas development -- the Sankofa Gas Project – is now high on the Government’s agenda. The Sankofa Project complements the World Bank’s and IMF’s macroeconomic and fiscal support programs by supporting the GoG strategy to leverage domestic gas and oil resources to develop the manufacturing sector and higher value agriculture. The Sankofa focus will also contribute to greening of the economy by reducing use of heavy petroleum in electricity generation and removal of the main bottlenecks to economic growth – including inadequate and unreliable electricity supply and lack of affordable bank financing for the private sector. It will also require significant investments in infrastructure through effective public-private partnerships (PPP). To support this effort, the World Bank Group has provided an 16 IDA guarantee of US$125 million (US$500 million total exposure) and a complementary IBRD enclave guarantee of US$200 million (both in FY16) to unlock needed infrastructure investments by catalyzing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the country and setting a significant precedent in the international investment markets. In June 2016, the Board approved IFC’s investment participation in Sankofa up to US$300 million and MIGA guarantees up to US$450 million. A Results Based project in energy, foreseen in the CPS for FY15, was dropped in light of the new strategic focus on Sankofa. 40. IFC’s key strategy focus in Ghana is to help build a much needed sustainable electricity sector. In supporting private sector participation IFC has undertaken a phased approach to implementing Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) for Ghana's electricity distribution sector. In the initial phase, IFC helped define the most appropriate options for private sector participation in state distribution companies. In February 2015, the Government of Ghana decided to retain IFC services as transaction advisor, to implement a concession agreement for Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG). In promoting the country’s energy mix strategy and growth of oil and gas sector in particular, IFC has made equity and debt investments in Kosmos Energy and Tullow Oil that helped Ghana achieve first oil production from the Jubilee oil field and generated significant fiscal revenues. Since passage in 2013 of a local content law for the petroleum industry, the two investments made domestic purchases worth about US$227 million in 2014. IFC also partnered with the Ghana Chamber of Mines and the Minerals Commission on a three-year National Supplier Development Program (NSDP) aimed at building local suppliers’ capacity to participate in the Ghanaian extractive sector. IFC, in collaboration with Newmont Ghana Gold Limited (NGGL), has also been working on means of increasing benefits to communities located adjacent to mines and other extractive industries. Specifically, it supported development of local businesses to participate in the supply chain of mining operations. To date, the program has successfully mentored 42 local businesses, generating sales of US$12.9 million. 41. Although the planned effort to further strengthen the overall financial sector framework through an IDA DPO was dropped (Pillar 1), IFC has supported inclusive growth through improved access to finance for MSMEs during this CPS -- a key strategic pillar for IFC’s Investment and Advisory Services work in Africa. IFC investments over the CPS period in Ghana through Advans Ghana, UT Bank and EBG facilitated the disbursement of 2,954 SME loans valued at over US$105 million and the disbursement of over 29,000 micro loans valued at over US$29 million. IFC’s Ghana Collateral Reform advisory project, enabled about 4,223 SMEs to receive loans secured with movable property and facilitated nearly US$4 billion worth of financing. In addition, IFC’s Africa Credit Bureau Program (ACBP 2), supported improvements to Ghana's credit reporting system, facilitating over US$144 million in financing to MSMEs. IFC also worked with both telecommunications companies (Millicom/Tigo Ghana) and banks (Fidelity Bank) to expand mobile money services and promote financial inclusion. IFC’s partnership with Tigo was part of the Partnership for Financial Inclusion, a joint initiative of IFC and the MasterCard Foundation to expand microfinance and advance mobile financial services in Sub-Saharan Africa. IFC’s engagement is expanding the mobile money agent network has facilitated over 970,000 million additional non-cash transactions per month, reaching over 21,600 remittance customers. In March 2016, IFC and Fidelity Bank, agreed to collaborate on use of the bank’s inclusive banking service product (Smart Account) to support 600,000 new 17 users. IFC’s investments in the information sector supported 6.17 million phone line subscribers and 1.3 million internet users. 42. Other important changes in Pillar 2, concern the transport sector, where the WBG made several changes to the planned program and engaged in a new area—maritime infrastructure. A results-based operation for the roads sector (planned for FY16) was dropped, amid continuing concerns about procurement and overall fiduciary oversight. Instead, two investment operations, which involve stricter application of procurement and financial management guidelines, will proceed. These include an AF of US$25 million in FY16 and an additional US$150 million in FY17 is planned for the proposed Transport Sector Improvement project. Complementing the Bank’s support for roads and trade logistics, IFC is playing a central role in supporting development of the Ghana’s port infrastructure. In March 2016 to support Ghana’s biggest port Tema, IFC obtained Board approval for a financing package of up to US$667 million -of which US$195 million for IFC’s own account and US$472 million as mobilization. IFC committed its “A� loan in June 2016. The project involves the development of a new container terminal in the Port of Tema which will increase Ghana's competitiveness, and drive trade growth by introducing modern efficient container handling capacity. As such, it will help improve logistics performance in Ghana - an area which is strongly associated with the reliability of supply chains and the predictability of service delivery for producers and exporters. 43. The need to focus squarely on bolstering the social safety net in the wake of the fiscal crisis and to better understand the impact of the crisis on population welfare has driven changes to Pillar 3. In this context, while Government decided to proceed with a planned Maternal and Child Health Project (FY14), it decided to drop a planned operation aimed at longer-term strengthening of health systems, including health insurance. Similarly, a new AF (US$50 million) was added to the program to extend the successful Social Opportunities Project in place of some smaller youth employment initiatives. IFC has been engaged in Pillar III principally through its Health in Africa Initiative (HiA), which aims to improve the operating environment for the private health sector by supporting policy, legal and regulatory reforms . Inter alia, the initiative will help standardize pricing to make human resources more affordable and lead to private sector delivery of quality services to 500,000 people by 2018. However, privatization of health care in Ghana continues to be a challenge given on-going labor disputes. 44. A final change to Pillar 3 concerns the addition of new ASA activities (FY16-FY18) to build knowledge about and recommend strategies and evidence-based policies to address poverty and vulnerability (as shown in Annex 1) in the current Ghanaian context. One area that will be analyzed in some detail (which was not foreseen in the original CPS) is gender equality – including a gender analysis in FY17 and a macroeconomics and fiscal management (MFM) investments and gender study in FY18. These studies will help inform gender-focused actions for the next country strategy. VI. Risks to CPS Program A. Revised Systematic Operations Risk-Rating Tool Risk Categories Rating (H, S, M or L) 1. Political and governance S 18 2. Macroeconomic S 3. Sector strategies and policies M 4. Technical design of project or program L 5. Institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability M 6. Fiduciary M 7. Environment and social M 8. Stakeholders L 9. Other (security) L Overall M 45. Overall, the risks to the program identified in the original CPS are still valid. The two risks highlighted in the CPS were macroeconomic risks and political and governance risks – both of which continue to be the most important for the remainder of the CPS period. Overall risk rating is moderate. 46. The CPS pointed to macroeconomic risks deriving from Ghana’s large and growing dependency (for foreign exchange and government revenues) on a narrow range of internationally traded commodities. As events have evolved over the past three-four years it is clear that not only did these risks materialize, but they continue to be substantial at the present time. The fiscal consolidation program adopted by the Government with support from the IMF, the World Bank and other partners has helped to mitigate this risk to some extent, but the country’s outlook remains vulnerable to volatility in international commodity prices and global financial conditions as previously discussed in this document. The key to sustainably reducing macroeconomic vulnerabilities is to diversify and broaden the base of the economy through increasing agricultural productivity and stimulating the growth of SMEs, a goal which is at the core of Ghana’s development strategy and the program supported under this CPS. An expanded, more effective safety net that can be scaled up in the event of a crisis is another central element of the CPS program. 47. Political and governance risks also remain substantial though progress has been achieved in some areas since the CPS was designed. As mentioned in the section on portfolio, the run-up to elections has often been costly to the development agenda in Ghana (as in many other countries), both by distracting the attention of key decision-makers and by encouraging fiscal indiscipline. With national elections scheduled for end 2016, there is a substantial risk that the macroeconomic stabilization effort could be jeopardized if spending pressures materialize. However, the Government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation and the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement with the IMF will help to mitigate this risk to some extent. In the aftermath of the elections, the CPS program could be affected by the turnover of officials and technical personnel at all levels of government –as has often occurred in the past, sometimes even when the same political party has been returned to power. Should a large number of officials associated with the CPS program be displaced following the upcoming election, implementation will undoubtedly suffer. While the need for continuity of project staff will be an important theme in the World Bank’s dialogue with various stakeholders in Ghana, the risk posed by personnel changes cannot be fully mitigated. Some of the actions taken by the World Bank to improve portfolio performance (e.g., establishment of an Implementation Support Team) could prove useful in ensuring a smoother post-election transition. 19 20 ANNEX 1: Updated CPS Results Matrix Country Development Goals1 Issues and Obstacles2 CPS Outcomes3 Milestones4 Bank Program (and Partners)5 Pillar 1: Improving Economic Institutions Reduction in volatility of Obstacles to strong fiscal 1.1 Strengthen public Lending: fiscal policy outcomes and outcomes include: (i) financial management Macro Stability for pro-cyclical nature of fiscal inadequate budget and improved e- Competitiveness and policy allocation and governance Ministries, Departments and Growth DPO I-III (FY13- expenditure control Agencies (MDAs) preparing FY18); Local Government processes (especially Average expenditure out- budgets on Oracle platform Capacity Support Project public wage bill and turn compared to (eGhana) (IPF, FY11); eGhana SOE); (ii) weak economic originally approved Baseline: 0 Project (IPF, FY07); institutions to inform budget (PEFA score) Target: 28 Ghana PFM Reform budget policy/ process; Baseline (FY13): C Project (IPF, FY15); (iii) lack of modern tools Target (FY18): B Data source: direct Economic Management (e.g., IT platforms) to observation on budget report Strengthening Project increase efficiency the Data source: PEFA self- preparation (IPF, FY17); lack of tools to manage assessment PBG (GU, FY15) the budget; and (iv) the lack of transparency and ASA: timeliness in information Debt Management release that prevent Performance Assessment citizens from monitoring At least 10 Ministries are (DeMPA); Strengthening of impacts of public policy. covered in the Comptroller Accounting Profession; Improved control of the and Accountant-General’s Just in time Policy Notes; wage bill – public wage to monthly report showing the # Debt and Risk Management tax revenue ratio falls of workers before and after TA; Enhancing Urban (percent) the Electronic Salary Payment Resilience TA; Baseline 52.9% (2014) Voucher (ESPV) validation. Distributional Impact of Target <45% (end 2017) Baseline: 0 (FY13) Fiscal Policy; Banking Target: < 10 (FY17) Sprvn and Crisis Mngmnt TA; Capital Markets Reglt Capacity in place for and Sprvn TA; Systematic production of NIP and PIP by Country Diagnostic (SCD); Strengthening of NDPC Baseline: No, NIP or PIP ROSC Assessment; PFM 1 Longer-term or higher-order development objectives are usually not achievable in the CPS period nor solely addressed by the CPS program. Only those to which CPS outcomes will contribute are included. 2 Critical issues and obstacles to achieving country development goals provide the logical link to CPS outcomes. 3 Country results deemed achievable in the CPS period and which the World Bank expects to influence through its interventions. Indicators of each outcome are included, with baselines and targets and data sources. 4 Progress markers of CPS implementation; outputs, actions, or outcomes expected to be realized during CPS implementation. 5 Ongoing and planned lending, grants, and guarantees; analytical and advisory activities. Includes IBRD, IDA, IFC, and MIGA. Partners included if co-financing or other support of same CPS outcome. 21 Country Development Goals1 Issues and Obstacles2 CPS Outcomes3 Milestones4 Bank Program (and Partners)5 capacity for policy FY14) Reform Study; Electricity analysis, forecasting and Target: Yes, NIP and PIP Company of Ghana TA; projecting as prepared by FY18 Environmental resilience demonstrated by preparing Analysis; satisfactory a National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) and Public Investment Program (PIP) Baseline: No, NIP or PIP Target: Yes, NIP and PIP prepared by 2018 Promote evidence-informed 1.2 Strengthen national Lending: Ghana has the institutions Statistics Development policy-making statistical system and the legal framework Program (IPF, FY11); to support a national Proportion of statistical Months between end of data NREG TA (IPF, FY13); M&E and statistical products released in collection and release of main Disaster Risk Management system, but there are accordance with national report for household Country Plan (TF, FY15); serious gaps in statistics release calendar surveys(GSDP) (number) availability, quality, (percent) Baseline: DHS= 12, GLSS = ASA: timeliness and use of the Baseline: 0% (no release 18, MICS =18 Ghana Living Standards information collected. calendar)FY13 Target: DHS= 9 , GLSS = 9, Survey VI; Integrated The WB Statistical Target: 50% FY18 MICS = 12 Business Establishment Capacity Indicator for Survey; Energy Sector Ghana in 2012 was 59 Data source: Annual Review; GH-Municipal (out of 100)6, dropping review of publication MDAs and MMDAs with Financing Sekondi and from 62 in 2011 and 66 in dates compared with annual progress report made Takoradi; Pension/Poverty 2010. Ghana’s score now release calendar publicly available (General Trends Notes; SOE falls below that of a 80 (Dec 2015) Budget Support) (number, Governance Study; National number of other SSA percent) Anti-Money countries. Statistical Capacity Score Baseline: 0 Laundering/CFT Risk (GSDP) (score) Target: 20 MDAs and 50 Assessment; Public Sector Baseline: 59 (FY12) percent of MMDAs in all Wage Bill Study; PER; PFM Target: 70 (FY18) regions Bottlenecks to Service Delivery; Data source: www.ndpc.gov.gh Facilitate land tenure and Issues of regularizing land 1.3 Strengthened land improve land administration acquisitions and administration Lending: streamlining the legal Turnaround time for title Number of land transactions The Land Administration status of leases for registration reduced registered Project II (IPF, FY11) investment purposes are (LAP2) (month) Baseline: 0 prominent. Lack of open Baseline: 7 months (FY12) Target: 30,000 and transparent land Target: 3 months (FY18) market is a main obstacle Data source: Project M&E ASA 6 See http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/bulletin-board-on-statistical-capacity. 22 Country Development Goals1 Issues and Obstacles2 CPS Outcomes3 Milestones4 Bank Program (and Partners)5 for further development in Data source: Regional Records Disaster Preparedness & many sectors. Lands Commissions Watershed Management; Urban Local Government Basic information on Exchange; standard statutory fees, land values and charges on land transactions made publicly available (disaggregated by media, on-line, website and brochures. Baseline: No (FY12) Target: Yes (FY18) Preparing for the oil and gas The future strategic 1.4 Increase oil and gas era challenges in the sector transparency Lending: development of the oil Oil and Gas Capacity and gas potential include Oil and gas contracts Staff of resource economic Building Project (Original establishing a transparent, made available to the institutions (MoE and and Additional Financing, efficient, and predictable public (OGCBP) Regulator if established) IPF, FY11, FY14); Sankofa revenue management and Baseline: No trained in regulatory and IDA guarantee US$125 regulatory regime across Target: Yes management skills for oil and million (US$500m the entire value chain. gas (OGCBP)(number) exposure) and IBRD enclave Data source: government Baseline: 25 guarantee US$200m (GU, website Target: 120 FY16); IFC’s investment in Sankofa US$300m and Data source: reports by MIGA Sankofa Gas Fields training providers guarantees US$450m (IFC, FY16); Pillar 2: Improving Competitiveness and Job Creation Improve access and quality of Ghana has made 2.1 Improve access and Lending: education and reduction in significant progress quality of education Ghana Partnership for regional disparities in towards universal primary Education project (EFA education education for boys and Students achieving Public basic schools in grant, FY13); Secondary girls, but major gaps proficiency in English and deprived districts with up-to- Education Improvement persist in the quality of Math (NEA results for date School Report Cards Project (IPF, FY14); Africa education, including wide deprived districts) (GPEP) Regional Higher Education regional disparities which (GPEG) (percent) Baseline: 0 Centers of Excellence (IPF should be addressed on a Baseline: P3 English: Target: 20 FY14); Secondary Education priority basis. 12.4%; P3 Math: 9.0% Data source: Report of Pr. AF (IPF, FY18) (FY14) analysis and summary of Target: P3 English: 14% School Report Cards P3 Math: 12.5% (2018) ASA Data source: National Demand and Supply of Education Assessment TVET Skills Note; 23 Country Development Goals1 Issues and Obstacles2 CPS Outcomes3 Milestones4 Bank Program (and Partners)5 Productivity growth and Ghana is relatively weak 2.2 Improve skills Teacher Community increased competitiveness in the areas of education, development and Assistance TA; through skills and technology technology, innovation, technology adoption Competitiveness and Job in non-traditional sectors and labor market Creation Policy Notes; efficiency. GoG aims to Labor productivity by New training courses/new Manufacturing sector improve the efficiency participating firms partnerships established with Competitiveness Note; and competitiveness of (GSTDP) increased by 40 firms (GSTDP)(number) small and medium percent Baseline: 0 (FY12) Lending: enterprises by facilitating Target: 8 (FY17) Ghana eTransform (IPF, access to skills training Data source: SDF M&E FY14); Skills and and facilitate technology Technology Development transfer, and nurture a IFC: Students graduated Project (IPF, FY11); workforce with the right (on computer science, attitude, skills and management information ASA knowledge. systems and business Financial Inclusion Strategy; administration) at Ashesi Structural Transformation University (number) Note; Programmatic Baseline (2007): 350 Urbanization TA; Doing Actual Value (2013): 355 Business reform; Target (2013): 525 Cumulative Value (2015): 557 IFC: Ashesi University FY11 (27152) Data Source: DOTS (IFC) 2.3 Improved finance in support of SMEs ASA Fin Sector Note; Ag Sector SMEs receiving loans Policy Notes; Prioritizing secured with movable Infrstr Invest-Spatial Lens; property (number) Access to Finance Note; Baseline (2010): 200 Developing Regional PPP Capacity; Private Sector Target (2014): 4000 Dialogue Non-cash transactions per month (US$) IFC: Advans GH RI 3 Baseline (2014): (33856); UT Bank (30735); US$139,475 EBG RSF (25757); MFS - Target: (2018): Tigo Cash Ghana (600351); US$7,250,000 Ghana Collateral Reform (552667); Data source: DOTS&ASOP(IFC) 24 Country Development Goals1 Issues and Obstacles2 CPS Outcomes3 Milestones4 Bank Program (and Partners)5 Increased access of 2.4 Increased energy Lending: Availability, reliability Ghana Energy Development households and industry to generation and trade in and quality of the and Access Project reliable and adequate energy electricity electricity service remains Reduction in unplanned (GEDAP) AF (IPF, FY15); supply and diversification of unsatisfactory as the Reduction in average power outages to <150 annual Sankofa Gas Project (GU, the national energy mix demand for power is annual hours of unplanned hours per consumer in ECG FY15); Climate Innovation rising sharply, straining power outages per system by end 2017 Center TF (IPF, FY16); IPP the existing generation consumer in ECG system Guarantees (GU, FY18); and distribution capability (annual hours) of the sector. Frequent Baseline: 200 (2007) blackouts cause major Target: 90 (2017) Private Sponsors have begun ASA disruptions to economic payments under a long term Energy Sector Review; and social activities. In Increase in volume of operational lease arrangement Natural Gas Pricing Policy light of the substantial domestic natural gas for the Floating Production Note; drop in oil prices, the supplied to power plants Storage and Offloading uncertainties associated from the Sankofa gas field (FPSO) vessel (2016) with Nigerian supplies MMcfg) and the availability of Baseline: 0 (2016) domestic natural gas to Target: 150 MMcfg (mid- IFC: Takoradi II (TICO) meet the economy’s 2018) (30228); Sankofa Gas demand for electricity, Project (FY 16); development of cleaner Increase in GWh produced domestic energy sources from alternative MIGA: Sankofa Gas Fields is a high priority. renewable energy sources (FY16); with IFC support (GWh) Baseline (2010): 1,164 Target: 2,474 Data Source: DOTS (IFC) Enhanced opening-up of 2.5 Improve mobility of There are regional Lending: markets, especially in most goods and passengers disparities in access to the Transport Sector Project AF deprived areas through road, main trunk routes in Condition of road network Length of road network (IPF, FY15), Urban rail, air, maritime and inland several regions. The lack in good and fair condition (trunk, urban, and feeder) Transport Sector Project transport and water of proper connectivity, – Trunk Roads (percent) rehabilitated (TSP)(km) (IPF, FY07); West Africa resources which could expand intra- Baseline: 72 Baseline: 0 Abidjan-Lagos Transport regional trade and Target: 88 Target: trunk: 52, urban: 14.8 and Transit Facilitation markets, is not available rural: 110 feeder: 300 Project (IPF, FY10); for many communities, Data source: annual dry Data source: report Progress Transport Sector Project particularly in the North. and wet season survey by reports by supervision (IPF, FY17); The linkages to regional Ministry of Roads and consultant7 markets are essential to Highways increase shared prosperity Funding for road maintenance which requires 7 Project refers to the whole engineering process. 25 Country Development Goals1 Issues and Obstacles2 CPS Outcomes3 Milestones4 Bank Program (and Partners)5 modernizing the existing Border crossing time of of the planned maintenance main corridors linking trucks/merchandise along needs major regional centers the s Elubo-Noe border Baseline: 60 percent and the capital, as well as and Kodjoviakope-Aflao Target: 75 percent neighboring countries. reduced (days) There are also critical Baseline: 36 Data source: Road Fund Audit logistical bottlenecks Target: 19 report because of the lack of modern ports and airports. Data source: Abidjan- Roadblocks along the Lagos Corridor Abidjan-Lagos corridor in Organization annual Ghana (number) estimate of border Baseline: 30 crossing time Target: 3 Data source: physical count/direct observation Increased Tema Port Container Operations (Mln TEU Containers Baseline (2015): 0.6458 Target (2021): 0.75 Data Source: DOTS (IFC) Deforestation and climate 2.6 Improved land and Under its matching grants IFC: MPS Tema Port change phenomenon are water management activities, GCAP is investing (36706) ; creating a volatile Area of land in selected in the development of 4,000 agriculture production for micro-watersheds under ha of land for sustainable people, particularly in the new sustainable land and improved rain fed rice in the North, because of watershed management SADA zone. Works for 700 Lending: droughts or floods. The technologies (ha) ha are expected to start in SLWRM Project AF (GEF, need to learn sustainable Baseline: 0 April 2016 with another 1,700 FY16); natural resource Target: 6,000 ha following the 2016 harvest. management, in particular The total would exceed the of land and water is Data source: annual 1500 ha target for 2016 Accelerated agricultural essential if the poor in survey by SLWMP M&E growth and increased Ghana are to mitigate team. Grants: productivity and marketing these risks at the Enhancing Natural and community level. Land under formal Agro-Forest Landscapes commercial arrangements Project (FY15); for sustainable improved Dedicated Grant rain fed rice in the SADA Mechanism(FY17); zone (ha) Baseline: 0 ASA Target: 5,000 ha (2018) Pwalugu Economic Growth It is necessary to increase 2.7 Increased adoption and Poverty reduction study; productivity in agriculture of new agricultural as a way to increase technologies Lending: 26 Country Development Goals1 Issues and Obstacles2 CPS Outcomes3 Milestones4 Bank Program (and Partners)5 shared prosperity to West Africa Agricultural smallholders, through Processors/producers who Productivity Program II innovation, utilization of have adopted at least one (IPF, FY12);Pwalugu appropriate technologies, new technology (WAPP Multipurpose Dam (IPF, equipment, and irrigation II) increased (number) FY18) facilities as well as Baseline: 25,000 (2013) development of value Target: 250,000 (2016) chains, encouraging commercial farmers’ Data source: Annual linkages without-growers assessment/survey IFC: Vegpro (664184); and Farmer-Based WAAPPII M&E team Organizations. Most poor people in the North of Ghana are dedicated to farming of cash crops that are vulnerable to droughts or pests. Many of Ghana’s fish 2.8 Improved Satellite based fishing vessel resources are heavily management of fish and monitoring system is in place overexploited with too aquatic resources for the 200 mile exclusive Lending: many vessels competing economic zone and West Africa Regional to catch too few fish, with Share of total landed catch monitoring 24 h/day Fisheries Project (WARFP) little incentive to invest in with improved handling at (WARFP)(Yes/No) (IPF, FY12); management and value landing sites supported by Baseline: No addition. With the the project (percent) Target: Yes introduction of recovery Baseline: 0 measures could contribute Target: 10% (2017) Data source: direct far more than they observation at Fisheries currently do to the Data source: Fishery Commission country’s economic Commission social growth, food security and economic survey poverty reduction. Pillar 3: Protecting the Poor and Vulnerable Reduce disparities and The poor in Ghana are 3.1 Expansion of social Targeting performance (share inequality along the North- heavily concentrated in protection of beneficiaries from the South divide, the Western the North, and in pockets poorest 20 percent of the and Eastern corridors, in in the South, which have Beneficiaries of safety net population) (percent) (GSOP) Lending: gender and age and for a common challenge, programs and labor- Ghana Social people with disabilities access to public services, intensive public works Baseline: 50 Opportunities AF (IPF, in particular, quality programs –number of Target: 60 FY14); education and health. beneficiary households There are in place social (females) Data source: Annual ASA: safety-nets programs in Baseline: 80,000 (15,000) Performance Review Support to Common 27 Country Development Goals1 Issues and Obstacles2 CPS Outcomes3 Milestones4 Bank Program (and Partners)5 which targeting needs to Target: 390,000 (253,500) Targeting System; Poverty be improved as to include (2017) Person days provided in labor and Labor Assessment; more households at risks, intensive work (GSOP) Gender analysis; such as those headed by a Data source: Bi-annual Macroeconomics and fiscal woman. The two national Accounts by LEAP Baseline: 305,000 management (MFM) programs, the NHIS and Target: 450,000 investments and gender LEAP are not fully study; Building National aligned and further Data source: Quarterly Targeting System TA; targeting is needed to monthly reports consolidated Health Insurance review; reach out to women and by NCO Monitoring report Poverty Notes; children - and especially Pensions TA; people living with Youth and Jobs TA; disabilities. Consumer Protection TA; Improving access to health 3.2 Improved maternal Major challenge in health Lending: services and improved water health sector is to close the large Births (deliveries) Maternal and Child Health supply and sanitation gaps in access to health attended by skilled health and Nutrition Improvement care across gender, personnel (HSSP) Project (IPF, FY14); geography and income (percent) quintiles in addition to Baseline: 59 (FY14) improving the efficiency Target: 70 (FY18) ASA and quality of service Child Health Nutrition and delivery in order to Data source: health Population Community PBF accelerate Ghana’s facility data (presented at Impact Evaluation progress in improving annual health sector maternal and infant review) mortality. Proportion of mothers of children under two years of age who had at least four pre-natal care visits during their most recent pregnancy (percent) Baseline: 74.6% (FY14) Target: 85% (FY18) Data source: routine surveys by sub-districts and village health volunteers Number of people (male and female) receiving access to improved services in privately 28 Country Development Goals1 Issues and Obstacles2 CPS Outcomes3 Milestones4 Bank Program (and Partners)5 operated clinics supported by IFC IFC: Ghana Health In Africa Baseline (2012): 0 Initiative ( 586827); Despite recent improvements, expansion Target (2018): 70,000 of access to improved water lags behind Data source: DOTS (IFC) population growth in urban areas. Between 1990 and 2010, the urban 3.3 Increase access to population grew by 5.4 improved water supply and sanitation New piped household water million without the connections (number) corresponding expansion (SRWSP, GAMA, UWP) in piped water supply, People in poor urban and rural areas provided with Lending: affecting particularly the Baseline: 9,200 Sustainable Rural Land, poor. access to improved water sources (number) Target: 20,000 Water and Sanitation Project Baseline: 0 (IPF, FY10), Urban Water Target: 1,350,000 Data source: data from Project AF (IPF, FY12); technical audit GAMA (IPF, FY13); ASA: Institutional Options Urban Water and Sanitation 29 ANNEX 2: Matrix of changes to original CPS Results Matrix8 End Target Indicator UoM Baseline Value Status Comments Value Pillar 1: Improving Economic Institutions Outcome 1.1: Strengthened public financial management and improved e-governance Improved PEFA score relating to No average expenditure out-turn Change Rating C B compared to originally approved budget (eGhana) Added to reflect intensified Improved control of the wage bill – Percent 52.9% <45% New focus on budget control as public wage to tax revenue ratio falls per new DPO series. Strengthening of NDPC capacity for Added to reflect the focus of policy analysis, forecasting and the Economic Management projecting as demonstrated by NIP and PIP Strengthening Project No/yes No NIP or PIP New preparing a satisfactory National prepared by 2018 (FY17), which was added to Infrastructure Plan (NIP) and Public the program. Investment Program (PIP) Target unit was not related to the actual or the baseline unit. Transactions of the main public Implementation completion service targeted by the project Number 13,223 100,000 Dropped report (ICR) clarified and (eGhana) increases updated actual achievement in percent (%) terms (see Annex 3 for status). Outcome 1.2: Strengthened national statistical system - (revised) Proportion of statistical products No released in accordance with national Change Percent 0 50 statistics release calendar (GSDP) improved Statistical Capacity Score (GSDP) Rating 59 70 No 8 As noted in the main text, in addition to the changes described here, a number of outcomes/milestones related to IFC activities have been included in the revised PLR matrix (Annex 1). 30 End Target Indicator UoM Baseline Value Status Comments Value increased Change Outcome 1.3: Strengthened land administration The end target was revised from 2 in the original CPS to 3 months, reflecting the Turnaround time for title registration findings of the project Months 7 3 Revised (LAP2) reduced supervision teams about the infeasibility of achieving the 2 month target given capacity constraints. Basic information on standard Added to reflect the greater statutory fees, land values and emphasis on transparency charges on land transactions made with respect to key No/Yes No Yes New publicly available (disaggregated by Government functions. media, on-line, website and brochures) Outcome 1.4: Increased oil and gas sector transparency - (revised) Oil and gas contracts made available No Yes/No No Yes to the public (OGCBP) Change Outcome 1.5: Strengthened local government capacity – (dropped) Variance between MMAs allocations Driven by the changes in the and actual receipts of DACF + DDF country context and given the +UDG (LGCSP) reduced from 37 Percent 37 20 Dropped shift in focus of the CPS, this percent to 20 percent outcome was dropped from the matrix. Driven by the changes in the country context and given the Increase in survey scores on citizens’ shift in focus of the CPS this engagement with urban assemblies Percent 0 10 Dropped outcome was dropped from and their perception of urban the matrix. The outcome was management (LGCSP) achieved however (see Annex 3). Pillar 2: Improving Competitiveness and Job Creation 31 End Target Indicator UoM Baseline Value Status Comments Value Outcome 2.1: Improve access and quality of education - (revised) Students achieving proficiency in English:12.4 % 14% No English and Math (NEA results for Percent Math: 9.0% 12.5% Change deprived districts) (GPEG) (percent) Outcome 2.2: Improve skills development and technology adoption Labor productivity by firms No participating in skills program Percent 0 40 Change (GSTDP) increased by 40 percent IFC: Students graduated (on This indicator was added to computer science, management reflect IFC focus on Number 350 525 New information systems and business supporting skills administration) at Ashesi University development. Outcome 2.3: Improved finance in support of SMEs - (new) SMEs receiving loans secured with Added to reflect IFC work on Number 200 4,000 New movable property credit registry Added to reflect IFC work on Non-cash transactions (per month) US$ 139,475 7,250,000 New SMEs. Outcome 2.4: Increased energy generation and trade in electricity – (revised) Power losses along the principal Dropped CPS focus shifted to transmission interconnection WAPP Percent 4 2 domestic energy generation. “Zone A� in Ghana reduced New Added to reflect new CPS Reduction in average annual hours of Annual focus on development of unplanned power outages per 200 90 hours domestic natural gas in place consumer in ECG system of imports. New Added to reflect new CPS Increase in volume of domestic focus on development of natural gas supplied to power plants MMcfg 0 150 domestic natural gas in place from the Sankofa gas field of imports. Increase in GWh produced from New Added to reflect IFC work on 2,474 efficient energy sources with IFC GWh 1,164 electricity generation. support Outcome 2.5: Improve mobility of goods and passengers 32 End Target Indicator UoM Baseline Value Status Comments Value Condition of road network in good No and fair condition – Trunk Roads (all Percent 72 88 Change transport project) increased Border crossing time of trucks/merchandise at Elubo-Noe No Days 36 19 border and Kodjoviakope-Aflao Change reduced M TEU Increased Container Operations at Added to reflect IFC Tema Container 0.6458 0.75 New Tema Port Port Operation s Outcome 2.6: Improved land and water management Area of land in selected micro- watersheds under new sustainable Target revised upwards given land and watershed management Ha 0 6000 Revised extension and additional technologies increased from 0 ha to grants in this area. 2,000 ha Land under formal commercial Added to reflect CPS focus arrangements for sustainable Ha 0 5000 New on agriculture in the improved rain fed rice in the SADA underdeveloped SADA zone. zone Outcome 2.7: Increased adoption of new agricultural technologies Processors/ producers who have No adopted at least one new technology Number 25,000 250,000 Change (WAAPPII) increased Outcome 2.8: Improved management of fish and aquatic resources Annual net economic benefits from targeted fisheries (non-motorized Indicator was dropped due to US$US 99.5m 99.5m Dropped marine canoe fisheries only) remains lack of reliable data. at US$99.5m Share of total landed catch with Added to reflect the CPS improved handling at landing sites Percent 0 10 New focus on improved fisheries supported by the project management. 33 End Target Indicator UoM Baseline Value Status Comments Value Pillar 3 Protecting the Poor and Vulnerable Outcome 3.1: Expanded social protection Beneficiaries of safety net programs No change in content of and labor-intensive public works indicator but target revised programs (females) (GSOP) Number 80,000 (15000) 300,000 (40,000) Revised from 156,000 to 390,000 in increased light of the extended CPS period. Outcome 3.2: Improved maternal health Births (deliveries) attended by skilled Percent 59 70 No health personnel (HSSP) increased Change Proportion of mothers of children under two years of age who had at Added to reflect the focus on Percent 74.6 85 New least 4 pre-natal care visits during maternal health care. their most recent pregnancy Number of people (male and female) Added to reflect IFC’s receiving access to improved services Number 0 70,000 New activities under Ghana Health in privately operated clinics In Africa initiative. supported by IFC Outcome 3.3: Increased access to improved water supply and sanitation People in poor urban and rural areas No provided with access to improved Number 0 1,350000 change water sources increased People in poor rural areas with access Necessary policy and to improved sanitation under the institutional reforms to Number 0 600,000 Dropped project increased bolster the investments were not put in place. ANNEX 3: Matrix Summarizing progress towards CPS objectives 34 End Target Indicator UoM Baseline Value Status Comments Value Pillar 1: Improving Economic Institutions Outcome 1: Strengthened public financial management and improved e-governance Thirty three MDAs are preparing budgets on Oracle platform (surpassing the target of 28). Budget implementation Improved PEFA score relating to tracking has improved average expenditure out-turn substantially – 2014 compared to originally approved Rating C B Achieved expenditure outturn deviated budget (eGhana) from the approved budget for 2014 by just 2% (above PEFA B) and is expected to achieve at least the target of ‘B’ in PEFA assessment for 2015 and 2016. The indicator named “Number of transactions on e- government applications� was tracked as Intermediate Outcome Indicator throughout the eGhana project. When the ICR was prepared, Transactions of the main public the team realized that target service targeted by the project Number 13,223 100,000 unit was not related to the Achieved (eGhana) increases from 13,223 to actual or the baseline unit. 100,000 ICR clarified and updated actual achievement in percent (%) terms to be relatable to the targets. As of March 1, 2015 (after the project closing date), average 70% of the transactions of the targeted public services) were 35 End Target Indicator UoM Baseline Value Status Comments Value processed online, well over 100,000. Outcome 2: Strengthened national M&E and statistical system Proportion of statistical products The current value is 60 and released in accordance with national On project is ongoing. Percent 0 50 statistics release calendar (GSDP) Track improved from 0 to 50 percent The current value is 66 and the Statistical Capacity Score (GSDP) On goal of 70 is likely to be Rating 59 70 increased from 59 to 70 Track reached shortly as the project is ongoing. Outcome 3: Strengthened land administration Time for title registration is now planned to reach 3 months (versus the original Turnaround time for title registration CPS target of 2 months) Months 7 2 Revised (LAP2) reduced from 7 to 2 months taking into account realistic estimates of institutional capacity and the regulatory framework. Outcome 4: Increased transparency in the oil and gas sector Oil and gas contracts are now Oil and gas contracts made available published on an official web Yes/No No Yes Achieved to the public (OGCBP) site that is accessible to the public. Outcome 5: Strengthened local government capacity Off This target will not be met due Variance between MMAs allocations Track/N to the fiscal constraint the and actual receipts of DACF + DDF GoG is facing resulting into Percent 37 20 ot +UDG (LGCSP) reduced from 37 delayed and reduced DACF + percent to 20 percent Achieved DDF transfers to MMAs. Increase in survey scores on citizens’ Percent 0 10 Achieved The target has been met. There 36 End Target Indicator UoM Baseline Value Status Comments Value engagement with urban assemblies is strong Government and their perception of urban ownership and Civil Society management (LGCSP) to 10 percent Organization (CSO) participation. Completed - (i) orientation of MMAs leadership in key social accountability (SA) instruments – SPEFA and Town Hall meetings; (ii) dissemination of the Citizens Perception Survey which stimulated greater community engagements; and (iii) appointment of Social Accountability Focal Points (SAFPs) at MMAs. Pillar 2: Improving Competitiveness and Job Creation Outcome 1: Improve education Targets Exceeded- With respect to NEA results, there has been an improvement and targets have been exceeded for the deprived districts from the Students achieving proficiency in baseline as follows: P3 English and Math (NEA results for Achieved English: 16%; P3 Math 13%. deprived districts) (GPEP) increased English:12.4 % 14% Percent The next NEA was from English: 12.4 percent and Math: Math: 9.0% 12.5% administered in June/July and 9.0 percent to English: 14.0 percent results expected by September and Math 12.5 percent 2016. With regard to public basic schools in deprived districts with up-to-date School Report Cards, the most recent report 37 End Target Indicator UoM Baseline Value Status Comments Value indicated 98% of schools meeting this indicator, surpassing the target of 75% for 2016. Outcome 2: Improve skills development and technology adoption Value added per worker-hour at participating firms had already increased by >50% by mid-2015 as verified by an Labor productivity by participating independent DANIDA firms (GSTDP) increased by 40 Percent 0 40 Achieved evaluation “Verification of percent Results and Sustainability Study of the Skills Development Fund�, June 2015. The value of the SME Loans Distributed with Baseline Increased Access to Finance, SME (2010): 0 has reached Actual Number 0 2954 Achieved Loans distributed Value (2014): of US$ 105,405,710, due to IFC interventions. Outcome 3: Increased trade in electricity Dropped Given new focus on production of electricity fueled by domestic natural Power losses along the principal gas, attention to the transmission interconnection WAPP transmission interconnection Percent 4 2 “Zone A� in Ghana reduced from 4 with neighboring countries has percent to 2 percent received lower priority. The regional project supporting this activity is ongoing at a very slow pace. Outcome 4: Improve mobility of goods and passengers 38 End Target Indicator UoM Baseline Value Status Comments Value Condition of road network in good and fair condition – Trunk Roads (all On 29 Trunk, 10.2 rural and 110 Percent 72 88 transport project) increased from 72 Track feeder roads completed. percent to 88 percent Interconnectivity of customs systems is still in progress. Border crossing time of Joint border post at Akanu- trucks/merchandise at Elubo-Noe Dodze financed by the EU is border and Kodjoviakope-Aflao Days 36 19 Delayed not yet operational. Despite (ALTTFP) reduced from 36 days to the resulting delays the 19 days outcome is expected to be achieved by the end of the revised CPS period. Outcome 5: Improved land and water management Area of land in selected micro- Target Exceeded. The area of watersheds under new sustainable land already under SLWM land and watershed management Ha 0 2000 Achieved practices is 3,090 ha (mid technologies (SLWMP) increased 2016). from 0 ha to 2,000 ha Outcome 6: Increased adoption of new agricultural technologies Processors/ producers who have Target exceeded: 270,535 adopted at least one new technology producers/processors have Number 25,000 250,000 Achieved (WAAPPII) increased from 25,000 to adopted at least one new 250,000 technology. Outcome 7: Improved management of fish and aquatic resources Indicator will be dropped due Annual net economic benefits from Off to lack of reliable data. Team targeted fisheries (non-motorized Track/N has proposed a new target US$US 99.5m 99.5m marine canoe fisheries ot related to handling of catch only)(WARFP) remains at US$99,5m Achieved which is reflected in the revised matrix. 39 End Target Indicator UoM Baseline Value Status Comments Value Pillar 3 Protecting the Poor and Vulnerable Outcome 1: Expanded social protection Beneficiaries of safety net programs From Jan 2013 to December and labor-intensive public works 2015, beneficiary household programs (females) (GSOP) numbers increased from increased from 80,000 (15,000) to 80,000 to 146,074 beneficiary 156,800 (40,000) households against the end of Number 80,000 (15000) 156,000 (40,000) On end CPS period target of Track 156,000. Of these individuals household members, 46% are orphans and vulnerable children, 37% are elderly persons above 65 years and 17% are persons with severe disability. Outcome 2: Improved maternal health Births (deliveries) attended by skilled Based on the Ghana DHS health personnel (HSSP) increased 2014 data, 74% of births from 59 percent to 70 percent (deliveries) were attended by skilled health personnel. This represents an increase of 15% Percent 59 70 Achieved since the previous GDHS (2008). The target of 70% of births (deliveries) attended by skilled health personnel has been met. Outcome 3: Increased access to improved water supply and sanitation People in poor urban and rural areas Target not yet met due to provided with access to improved 1,350,000 (water delay in effectiveness and Number Off Track Delayed water sources (SRWSP, GAMA, supply) subsequent implementation of UWP ) increased to 1,350,000 GAMA S&W project, which 40 End Target Indicator UoM Baseline Value Status Comments Value affected start of activities; bidding for works to start by June 2016. Actual number in 2016 is 850,000. The target will likely be met by the revised CPS end date. Actual number in 2016 is 400,000. Delay caused partly People in poor rural areas with access as a result of ineffective to improved sanitation under the application of the CLTS model Number 0 600,000 Delayed project (SRWSP) increased from 0 to to Household toilets and partly 600,000 as a result of delays in the implementation of the GAMA project. 41 ANNEX 4: Ghana CPS FY13-FY16 IDA Lending and Indicative FY17-FY18 Program CPF Original Term Indicative Extended CPF Lending CPS FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Pillars Subject to IDA 18 Funding Pillar 1 NREG TA Grant US$5.0m Public Sector Reform Project Public Financial Management Macro Stability for Macro Stability for Macro Stability for Competitive- Improve (moved to FY17) Support US$45.0m; Competitiveness II (moved to Competitiveness II (from FY16) ness III US$120.0 Economic ASA Economic Management DPO- Macro Stability for FY17); Financial Sector Development US$150.0m Institutions Disaster Preparedness & Modernization (moved to Competiveness US$150.0; Policy Operation; Economic Management Watershed Management; FY17); Oil and Gas Capacity Policy-Based Guarantee Sustainable Land and Water Strengthening TA (combined 2 ASA Natural Gas Pricing Policy; Building AF US$19.8m; (PBG) US$100.0m Resource Management (GEF) operations from FY14) US$15.0 Systematic Country Diagnostic Urban Local Government (US$400m); US$17.1m ; Sankofa Gas Dedicated Grant Mechanism TF (SCD); ROSC Assessment; PFM Exchange; Living Standards ASA Disaster Risk Management Guarantees (IDA US$125.0m with US$6.0m Reform Study; Electricity Company Survey VI; Debt Management Country Plan (TF, US$0.8m) IBRD Enclave US$200.0m); IFC’s of Ghana TA; Environmental Performance Assessment Sankofa US$300m; MIGA Sankofa ASA Resilience Analysis; (DeMPA); Energy Sector ASA Gas Fields US$450m Just in time Policy Notes; Debt Review; Municipal Financing Pension/Poverty Trends Notes; ASA and Risk Management TA; Sekondi and Takoradi; FIRST: Strengthening the SOE Governance Study; National Enhancing Urban Resilience TA; Integrated Business Accounting Profession Anti-Money Laundering/CFT Risk Distributional Impact of Fiscal Establishment Survey; Assessment; Public Sector Wage Bill Policy; Banking Spn and Crisis Study; PER; PFM Bottlenecks to Mngmnt TA;Capital Markets Regl Service Delivery and Spn TA Pillar 2 Ghana Partnership for Education Secondary Education Energy Results Based Roads Results Based Operation; Transport Sector Project Pwalugu Multi-Purpose Dam project US75.5m (EFA TF grant) Program US$156.0m; Operation; Manufacturing Climate Innovation Center TF US$150.0m US$100.0 m; Competitiven eTransform Ghana US$97.0; Competitiveness US$17.2m Secondary Education Program ess and Job IFC: Vegpro US$7.0m Youth Employment; Enhancing Nat and Agr (TF ASA AF $80.0m; Creation Financial Sector TA; Forest Landscapes (FIP, ASA Financial Inclusion Strategy; Sustainable Land and Water ASA Africa regional Higher US$29.5); Agriculture Sector Policy Notes; Structural Transformation Note; Resource Management AF (GEF) Demand, Supply of TVET Skills; Education Centers of GEDAP 2nd AF US$60.0m; Pwalugu Econ Growth and Poverty Programmatic Urbanization TA; US$10m; Excellence $24,0 Transport Sector Pr.AF Reduction Study; Access to Finance Doing Business reform IPP Guarantees Project ASA (US$25.0m); Note; Developing Regional PPP US$300m; Competitiveness and Job IFC: Takoradi II (TICO, $80M) Capacity; Prvt.Sector Dialogue; Creation Policy Notes; IFC Tema Port (US$667m); Teacher Community Assistance TA ASA Energy Sector Review; ASA Economic Diversification of Agriculture Sector; Policy Fin Sector Note; Ag Sector Sources of Growth Notes; Policy Notes; Prioritizing Infrstr Invest-Spatial Lens; Manuf Sector Competitiveness Note; Pillar 3 GAMA Sanitation and Water Maternal and Child Health ASA ASA ASA Protecting Project US$150.0m and Nutrition Improvement Building National Targeting System; Child Health Nutrition and MFM Investments and Gender; poor and IFC: Ghana Health In Africa Project US$68.0m Health Insurance review; Population Community PBF Youth and Jobs TA vulnerable Initiative Integrated Health Systems Poverty Notes; Impact Evaluation; ASA Strengthening; Pensions TA; Gender Analysis Support to Common Targeting Common Targeting TA; Youth and Jobs TA; System; Institutional Options for Soc Opport AF US$50.0m Consumer Protection TA; Urban Water and Sanitation ASA Poverty and Labor Assmnt (A) Italics – Actual, (D) – Dropped, (N) Bold – New, TF – Trust Fund/Non IDA 42 ANNEX 5: Table 1. Allocation of IDA and TF Resources FY 13- FY16 Financial Year Approved Projects Amount (US$ m) FY 13 GAMA Sanitation and Water Project 150.0 Total US$230.5 NREG TA 5.0 million Ghana Partnership for Education project (EFA TF grant), 75.5 FY14 eTransform 97.0 Total US$414.8 Secondary Education Improvement Project 156.0 million Ghana Social Opportunities Project AF 50.0 Oil and Gas Capacity Building AF 19.8 Afr Reg Higher Education Centers of Excellence 24.0 Maternal and Child Health 68.0 FY15 GEDAP 2nd Additional Financing 60.0 Total US$410.3 PFM Reform & Improvement Project 45.0 million Macro Stability for Competitiveness (DPO)/Budget 150.0 Support *Policy-Based Guarantee (PBG) 100.0 Ghana Forest Investment Program (TF/FIP) 29.5 Ghana – Disaster Risk Management Country Plan (TF) 0.8 Transport Sector Project Additional Financing 25.0 FY16 Climate Innovation Center (TF) 17.2 Total US$30.0 Sustainable Land and Water Resources Management 12.8 Project 2nd Additional Financing (TF) million FY17 Economic management Strengthening 15.0 Total US$15.0 million GRAND TOTAL 1100.6 43 Table 2: IDA and IBRD Guarantees FY15-FY16 Type of Guarantee Amount (US$ million) Total Exposure (US$ million) IDA IBRD IDA IBRD 1 Sankofa (PRG) 125 200 500 200 2 Policy-Based 100 N/A 400 N/A Guarantee (PBG) 3 Independent Power [75]* N/A [300]* N/A Producers (IPPs) PRG* TOTAL 225 200 900 200 GRAND TOTAL 425 1100 *Note: The World Bank Board of Executive Directors has approved all the guarantees except the IPP. The IPP is currently under preparation for FY18 delivery. 44 Table 3. IFC Committed Portfolio* (as of June2016) Pr. Committed IFC Committed Mob. Code Project Primary Sector (US$ m) (US$ m) 31433 A & C Mixed Use Wholesale and Retail Trade 4.0 0 29906 Actis ARE Fund 2 Construction and Real Estate 10.2 0 26914 ADP I Collective Investment Vehicles 1.3 0 31162 Advans Gh RI 2 Finance & Insurance 0.1 0 33856 Advans GH RI 3 Finance & Insurance 0.3 0 28308 Advans Gh Rights Finance & Insurance 0.1 0 25575 Advans Ghana Finance & Insurance 0.1 0 8201 AEF NCS Information 0 0 7617 AEF Tacks Farms Agriculture and Forestry 0 0 26577 AfricInvest II Collective Investment Vehicles 0 0 27152 AshesiUniversity Education Services 1.3 0 26642 Atlantic CRF Collective Investment Vehicles 0.7 0 26992 Aureos Africa II Collective Investment Vehicles 2.0 0 33287 EAG RI 2012 Finance & Insurance 0.1 0 24630 EB-Accion Ghana Finance & Insurance 0.2 0 25757 EBG RSF Finance & Insurance 0.3 0 36645 EBG Tier2 II Finance & Insurance 20.0 0 26822 EVHA Collective Investment Vehicles 2.5 0 26444 Ghana Mortg GHL Finance & Insurance 7.3 0 26667 GroFin AF Collective Investment Vehicles 4.4 0 26264 GTFP Ecobank Gha Finance & Insurance 5.8 0 25547 GTFP MBG Ghana Finance & Insurance (0.0) 0 33071 GTST Ghana BDCII Finance & Insurance 75.0 0 30029 KHI Ghana Accommodation & Tourism Services 12.3 10.0 31179 Kosmos Energy II Oil, Gas and Mining 100.0 0 28620 LeapFrog Fund Collective Investment Vehicles 0.6 0 27662 Macquarie Africa Collective Investment Vehicles 16.1 0 26855 Marina Mkt Ghana Wholesale and Retail Trade 1.6 0 30580 ProteaTakoradi Accommodation & Tourism Services 5.3 0 34352 Synergy Collective Investment Vehicles 0.2 0 30228 TICO Electric Power 73.6 0 32076 TICO - IR Swap Electric Power 10.3 0 27918 Tullow Oil Oil, Gas and Mining 165.0 0 Subtotal 520.6 10.00 45 New IFC Investments during the CPS/PLR period 33037 Access Ghana Finance & Insurance 30.0 0 35396 Exchange-Debt Construction and Real Estate 26.3 31.2 31275 GTFP BOA GHA Finance & Insurance 0.8 0 34016 GTFP FIDELITY G. Finance & Insurance 52.0 0 36706 MPS Tema Port Transportation and Warehousing 195.0 472.0 33311 Quantum Terminal Chemicals 8.0 0 35218 UT Bank-EQ Finance & Insurance 0 0 38267 Vegpro Ghana Sub Agriculture and Forestry 3.3 0 34383 WCSS SG GHANA Finance & Insurance 24.0 0 503.20 Subtotal 339.4 Grand Total 513.20 859.9 th *Lists committed projects, as of June 30 , 2016, only. This will exclude Board-approved projects that have not yet been committed e.g. Sankofa. Table 4. MIGA Active Guarantees as of October, 2016 Gross Exp. Effective Date Project Name Investor Name (US$m) West African Gas 12/31/2004 56.2 West African Gas Pipeline Co. Pipeline (WAGP) 06/30/2005 Scancom Ltd 9.0 MTN (Dubai) 02/03/2012 Takoradi Power Plant 62.8 Societe Generale (Canada) Abengoa Water, Daye Water, 10/25/2012 Seawater Desalination 149.8 Standard Bank of SA 4 projects Total 277.9 46 ANNEX 6 Outcomes of the PLR Consultations Accra, July 6-7, 2016 Participation and Structure of Discussions 1. The event recorded participants from government Ministries, development partners, civil society organizations, the media and think tanks and the private sector. In all there were a total of 104 participants for the one and half day event. In order to have effective engagement, the consultations were classified into categories: There was separate engagement with the Government and its agencies, development partners, civil society organizations including think tanks and the private sector. Valuable interventions were made by participants. Specifically, the presentation focused on the basis for the CPS and the PLR; and the context and strategic focus and the progress made and lessons learnt so far. The presentation was followed by the discussion on emerging priorities and government’s agenda. An important aspect of the exercise was the proposed adjustment to the periodization and the analysis of the risks. Questions were posed to guide the discussions. The last three issues generated lots of important discussions which will be further explored. Synopsis of Participation Participants/Stakeholder Number Government 18 Development Partners 8 CSO/Think Tanks/Media 59 Private Sector 13 WBG 6 5 Groups 104 2. To guide the discussion, the following questions were posed:  Do you share similar diagnosis of the challenges, opportunities and priorities?  What should be the top three reform priority for the WBG support?  What could be some success indicators?  What are the risks we need to mitigate?  How can we improve implementation? Presentation of the PLR Performance and Key Issues Raised A. Government and its Agencies  Ministry of Agriculture: Issues raised by the sector include the following: The objectives under the CPS for the Agriculture sector are still relevant since there are still serious challenges dating back over 50 years despite efforts to address them. These include low rate of adoption of technology and yields below 40 percent among others. In terms of priority, the sector outlined the following: Need for infrastructure in agriculture, consideration for an Agriculture DPO, agriculture statistics or census to guide effective planning, macroeconomic stability also has a positive impact on the sector. They recommended more meetings and engagement between Government and the WB for improved dialogue and priority setting. 47  Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources: Among the concerns were- weak coordination within the sector, capacity of government staff especially in highly technical areas like land administration. Current Land management system is skewed towards Customary Land Secretariats yet they have very weak capacity to carry out their mandate, lack of clarity and certainty in land administration, the challenge associated with land management based on customary land ownership. There should also be exemption of stamp duty. Other concerns raised include need for new technologies to deal with surveying to address Legislative Instrument (LI) 144 which puts restriction on Surveying. There have been additional innovation like the proposal to include spousal rights into the new land bill as part of land administration and introduction of innovation to streamline existing laws in the new land bill currently under preparation. An important point raised referred to the acquisition of lands for projects noting that the Wayleaves Act is not very effective, creating challenges for safeguards policy compliance especially for infrastructure projects. This has serious implications for payment of compensation where applicable. Recommendation was made for the need for collaboration between Ministries of Lands, Roads, Water and environment to address some of these concerns was tabled.  Ministry of Transport: The point was clearly made that there are a number of studies and master plans but implementation has been a challenge. In the area of railway development, there has been little to no progress and the question raised was what the World Bank could do to support government in this direction. As a proposal to address the land acquisition and roads reservation of 150ft (30 m), the Ministry indicated that for the medium to long term, there would be advanced road reservation.  Ministry of Power: Infrastructure development of distribution system, renewables, beyond guarantees example mini-grids for island communities are key to factor into the review process. The mini grid has a potential user population of one million Ghanaians. There are still some concerns with institutional capacity challenges. The question of who decides the next generational capacity needs to be yet addressed. Whilst the de facto agency should be ECG, the query arising out of that is whether ECG has the capacity to do the forecast, If the mandate is given to the Energy Commission, then the law establishing them needs to be amended, Volta River Authority (VRA) and Gridco are not well placed to do such needed forecast since they only focus on their reserve margins. It was recommended to continue and strengthen the dialogue to ensure the Push Call Option Arrangement (PCOA) and recommend to the GoG to refrain from providing more guarantees.  Ministry of Gender, Children and Social Protection: The only issue raised here is the need for gender disaggregated statistics to enable cross sectoral work to be effective. B. Development Partners 3. The main discussion point among DPs was the closer coordination of all Ghanaian partners in the preparation of the new development strategy as well as measures to be taken to mitigate risks associated with the current stage of Ghana’s economic and political development. The IMF program and the risk factors were also introduced onto the discussions. On capacity building, the question of whether what is being done is adequate in view of the emerging world economic crisis challenges. The point was made on ensuring that DPs worked on their comparative advantages, clear roles and more collaboration. 48 C. Civil Society, Think Tanks and the Media 4. The discussion raised the issues on water and sanitation support, aquaculture, capacity and sustainability implications. The meeting also raised concerns on monitoring and evaluation systems, fiduciary and governance including checks and balances and government regulatory regimes as critical for project implementation. Other discussion points included recommendation to improve information sharing on implementation so stakeholders are aware of the guidelines and processes adopted for implementation; to increase social accountability in projects in order to empower CSOs to serve as watchdogs. D. The Private Sector 5. The discussion centered on:  The business environment and the constraints encountered;  Difficult and time consuming starting a business process;  High Cost of capital (high interest rates);  Supply of utilities (very expensive having, negative impact on returns, structural changes needed);  Bad loans, rollover loans and subsidizing of loans leading to high cost of borrowing;  Revenue collection challenges at the port;  Challenges facing the informal sector needs. Summary and Way Froward 6. The meeting endorsed the rationale for the proposed adjustment and extension of the CPS. Discussion on the M&E and risks and their rating were fully discussed among other key messages. The issue of how the World Bank deals with corruption also came up. The Bank provided information that as a next step, the PLR will be revised incorporating some of the key points raised in the consultations. Final document will be disclosed for public access. 49 ANNEX 7 Map of Ghana 50