The World Bank Report No: ISR7550 Implementation Status & Results Bulgaria Social Inclusion Project (P100657) Public Disclosure Copy Operation Name: Social Inclusion Project (P100657) Project Stage: Implementation Seq.No: 7 Status: ARCHIVED Archive Date: 21-Nov-2012 Country: Bulgaria Approval FY: 2009 Product Line: IBRD/IDA Region: EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Lending Instrument: Specific Investment Loan Implementing Agency(ies): Ministry of Labor and Social Policy Key Dates Board Approval Date 04-Nov-2008 Original Closing Date 31-Oct-2013 Planned Mid Term Review Date 10-Dec-2012 Last Archived ISR Date 02-Jan-2012 Effectiveness Date 16-Apr-2009 Revised Closing Date 31-Oct-2013 Actual Mid Term Review Date 22-Jun-2012 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The project development objective for the Social Inclusion Project is to promote social inclusion through increasing the school readiness of children below the age of 7, targeting lowincome and marginalized families (including children with a disability and otherspecial needs). [Concrete PDO indicators with baselines and targets will be formulated as part of the baseline survey to be conducted after effectiveness and before project implementation.] Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project? Yes No Component(s) Component Name Component Cost Component I: Integrated social and childcare services 48.09 Component II: Capacity-building 3.23 Overall Ratings Public Disclosure Copy Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Implementation Status Overview The Project’s Midterm Review (MTR) was carried out between June 16 -22. A key conclusion of the MTR is that the Project needs to be restructured to (i) revise its Results Framework to better measure project interventions and (ii) reallocate project funds so as to adequately meet the higher than expected demand for ECD interventions from municipalities. The MTR also concluded that the Project cannot be fully implemented within its current closing date. The parameters of a possible restructuring package were discussed with the Government. Page 1 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR7550 Subsequently, the Ministry of Finance formally requested that the Project be amended within the parameters discussed during the MTR. Bank management agreed to consider the request once concerns for sufficient expenditure ceilings were properly addressed. The Government has given the Bank reassurances that it is working to that end but the issue remains unresolved. Public Disclosure Copy Despite the excellent implementation progress achieved over the first half of 2012, implementation progress since the MTR has been modest and the most important part of the Project – the delivery of the supported social inclusion services – has been put on hold because of the fully utilized allocations for CY 2012. Activities in the period July-October 2012 are limited to completing activities with no budget implications. In light of the budget situation, the PDO achievement is becoming less likely under the current situation; it entirely depends on the provision of a sufficient budget expenditure limit, an extension of its closing date, and on restructuring its Results Framework to introduce more adequate outcome indicators. Locations No Location data has been entered Results Project Development Objective Indicators Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Cognitive development and school readiness Text Value (i) 25% n/a (i) 27% scores, incuding (i) memory, verbal and visual- (ii) 42% (ii) 45% motor skills development, (ii) fluency (iii) 36 % (iii) 40 % inBulgarian; (iii) achievement test results Date 22-Jun-2012 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 Comments Reflects the shares of Premature to measure impact Reflects the expected share vulnerable children who pass as activities not yet of vulnerable children who the respective diagnostic tests implemented. will pass the respective in domains (i), (ii) and (iii) in diagnostic tests in domains respective ages of4 (i), 5(ii) (i), (ii) and (iii) in respective and 6 (iii). Results taken from ages of4 (i), 5(ii) and 6 (iii) at the Baseline survey the end of the project. completed in June 2012. Indicator suggested for Public Disclosure Copy revision and simplification through restructuring due to methodological constraints. Child nutrition in target population (as proxied Text Value (i) 1.34 n/a (i) 1.51 by anthropometric measures) (ii) 12.84% (ii)10.84% (iii) 9.88% (iii) 7.80% Date 22-Jun-2012 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 Comments Indexes reflect the following Premature to measure impact areas: (i) overall health index Page 2 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR7550 based on parental survey, (ii) as activities not yet share of children with height implemented. anthropometric measures below -2S and (iii) share of Public Disclosure Copy children with weight anthropometric measures below - 2S. Indicator suggested for revision through restructuring due to methodological constraints. Share of vulnerable children aged 6 who pass Percentage Value 36.00 36.00 40.00 the school readiness diagnostic test Date 22-Jun-2012 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator. Premature to measure. Reflects only dimension (iii) in Activities not yet indicator 1. To become implemented. effective after possible restructuring. Number of children aged 3-6 newly enrolled in Number Value 0.00 0.00 3000.00 kindergartens and preschool groups through Date 22-Jun-2012 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 the project Comments Proposed new indicator to Premature to measure. become effective after Activities not yet completed. possible restructuring. Number of children with disabilities and other Number Value 0.00 0.00 150.00 special needs enrolled in mainstream Date 22-Jun-2012 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 kindergartens and preschool groups through Comments Proposed new indicator to Premature to measure. the project become effective after Activities not yet possible restructuring. implemented. Number of beneficiaries of the “Early Number Value 0.00 0.00 2000.00 Intervention of Disabilities� service Date 22-Jun-2012 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator to Premature to measure. become effective after Activities not yet Public Disclosure Copy possible restructuring. implemented. Intermediate Results Indicators Page 3 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR7550 Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Parenting skills (as proxied by frequency Text Value -1.31 n/a -1.19 ofparent-child interaction) Date 22-Jun-2012 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 Public Disclosure Copy Comments This composite indicator Premature to measure. This composite indicator relies on a sample-based Activities not yet relies on a sample-based survey of parents. Not reliable implemented. This composite survey of parents. Not reliable and suggested for revision indicator relies on a sample- and suggested for revision under possible restructuring. based survey of parents. Not under possible restructuring. reliable and suggested for revision under possible restructuring. Rate of enrollment in mainstream preschooland Percentage Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 kindergarten among children below the age of Date 22-Jun-2012 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 7 from low income and marginalized families Comments Official statistics on children Official statistics on children Official statistics on children from marginalized families from marginalized families from marginalized families unavailable, baseline study unavailable. Suggested unavailable. Suggested was unable to collect data. revision of this indicator under revision of this indicator under suggested revision of this possible restructuring possible restructuring indicator under possible restructuring Rate of enrollment of children with a disability Percentage Value 48.00 48.00 54.00 in mainstream preschool, kindergarten and Date 22-Jun-2012 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 child care centers in participating municipalities Comments Available statistics unreliable. Premature to measure. Available statistics unreliable. Suggested revision of this Activities not yet Suggested revision of this indicator under a possible implemented. Baseline value indicator under a possible restructuring. assumed as current value. restructuring. Share of children who received full set of Percentage Value 86.40 87.40 88.60 immunizations Date 29-Dec-2011 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 Comments Problematic attribution of the Problematic attribution of the Problematic attribution of the indicator- project does not indicator- project does not indicator- project does not fund vaccines nor influences fund vaccines nor influences fund vaccines nor influences Public Disclosure Copy on state policies in this on state policies in this on state policies in this respect. Data collected respect respect through the baseline IE survey. Number of newly created places in Number Value 0.00 0.00 1600.00 kindergarten and preschool groups through the Date 22-Jun-2012 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 project Comments Proposed new indicator to Premature to measure. become effective after Activities not yet completed. possible restructuring. Page 4 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR7550 Number of newly created facilities for delivery Number Value 0.00 0.00 68.00 of integrated social inclusion services through Date 22-Jun-2012 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 the project Comments Proposed new indicator to Premature to measure. Public Disclosure Copy become effective after Activities not yet completed. possible restructuring. Number of parents of children aged 0-3 who Number Value 0.00 0.00 15000.00 received parenting skills counseling Date 31-May-2012 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator to Premature to measure. become effective after Activities not yet possible restructuring. implemented. Number of children aged 0-6 who benefitted Number Value 0.00 0.00 15000.00 from the “Health Consultation� services Date 31-May-2012 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator to Premature to measure. become effective after Activities not yet possible restructuring. implemented. Number of municipal staff trained in public Number Value 0.00 133.00 120.00 procurement rules and procedures under the Date 30-Jun-2011 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 project Comments Proposed new indicator to Activity completed and target become effective after level exceeded. possible restructuring. SIP Project Management Information System Text Value not due PMIS in use PMIS in use (PMIS) developed and operationalized Date 30-Jun-2011 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator to Activity completed and target Activity completed and target become effective after met. met. possible restructuring. Number of municipal staff trained in project Number Value 0.00 120.00 120.00 reporting and monitoring and evaluation Date 30-Jun-2011 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator to Activity completed and target Activity completed and target become effective after met. met. Public Disclosure Copy possible restructuring. Number of kindergartens and crèches’ staff Number Value 0.00 0.00 1400.00 trained under the project Date 22-Jun-2012 31-Oct-2012 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator to Premature to measure. become effective after Activities not yet possible restructuring. implemented. Page 5 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR7550 Baseline, mid-term and final project impact Text Value not due Baseline IE survey conducted Baseline, Midterm and Final evaluation (IE) surveys conducted in June 2012 and analytical IE surveys conducted and report with survey results analytical report with survey produced results produced Public Disclosure Copy Date 30-Jun-2011 07-Nov-2012 30-Sep-2013 Comments Proposed new indicator to Activity partially completed. become effective after Midterm and Final evaluations possible restructuring. not due yet. Data on Financial Performance (as of 05-Nov-2012) Financial Agreement(s) Key Dates Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Original Closing Date Revised Closing Date P100657 IBRD-76120 Effective 04-Nov-2008 18-Nov-2008 16-Apr-2009 31-Oct-2013 31-Oct-2013 Disbursements (in Millions) Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P100657 IBRD-76120 Effective USD 59.00 59.00 0.00 13.20 43.98 22.00 Disbursement Graph Public Disclosure Copy Key Decisions Regarding Implementation Page 6 of 7 The World Bank Report No: ISR7550 The Government and WB agreed that the request for restructuring will be considered by Bank's management subject to finding a sustainable solution to the budget situation. Restructuring History Public Disclosure Copy Level two Approved on 09-Jun-2010, Level two Approved on 31-May-2011 Related Projects There are no related projects. Public Disclosure Copy Page 7 of 7