56748 No.128 / June 2010 A View from the Top: Vulnerability in Mountain Systems It is well recognized that mountain ecosystems and their inhabitants are among the most vulnerable to climate change. Measuring the nature and scope of these vulnerabilities remains, however, a work-in-progress. This note develops an analytical framework that builds upon two existing approaches: The IPCC climate change vulnerability concept and its components of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and the mountain specificities framework, which offers a set of vulnerability criteria that are particularly prevalent in mountain settings. The framework also provides a number of sample indicators which form the basis for scalable vulnerability assessments to inform adaptation policies and measures. Mountains and Climate Change and an estimated 270 million are food insecure Mountains are home to almost 17% of the with about half of those being chronically world's population, most of which are poor and hungry. These vulnerabilities are likely to be marginalized: 80% live below the poverty line exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. instance, in the Tibetan Plateau the average Various projections show that mountains are temperature increase per decade over the last 50 experiencing disproportionate warming. For years was in the range of 0.2 to 0.6 degrees Figure 1: World Elevation Map centigrade. Similar figures exist for the Andes sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. Within and other high mountain environments. this definition: exposure is defined as "the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to Climate change and environmental degradation significant climatic variations;" sensitivity is in the mountains have started showing some defined as "the degree to which a system is profound impacts. Mountain communities are affected, either adversely or beneficially, by experiencing unusual climatic phenomena, such climate-related stimuli;" and adaptive capacity is as longer and relatively warmer winters, abrupt defined as "the ability of a system to adjust to and untimely rainfall, and unusual snowfall climate change (including climate variability accumulation. Such changes in long-term and extremes), to moderate potential damages, patterns can have profound livelihood to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope repercussions: For instance, malaria is now being with the consequences." reported in the highlands of Asia, Central Africa, and Latin America. Not all impacts are negative: While the IPCC framework provides a Recent research shows that due to rising comprehensive point of departure for temperatures and a longer summer season parts vulnerability assessments it lacks the necessary of the Himalayan rangelands have become more level of detail and specificity to make it a useful productive. operational tool. The changes will not only stress the adaptive Mountain Specificities capacities of mountain inhabitants but will also The concept of "mountain specificities" is challenge lowland communities who depend on tailored to capture the particular challenges of the mountains' ecosystem services such as mountain ecosystems (Jodha 1992). These freshwater for their livelihoods. In order to specificities are classified as either constraining capture, assess and monitor the complex and features, such as accessibility, marginality, and overlapping vulnerabilities, different assessment fragility; or enabling features, such as diversity, approaches have been developed and applied at niche, and human adaptive capacity. The different scales. boundaries between these categories are often fluid: For example, while physical isolation Vulnerability Assessment Approaches often represents a major handicap it can also While multiple vulnerability assessment trigger adaptive approaches through frameworks exist, this note seeks to integrate diversification or filling an economic niche. two of them in order to develop more effective climate change adaptation strategies: 1) the Within the mountain specificities framework the IPCC Vulnerability Framework, and 2) the term accessibility captures elements of distance, Mountain Specificities framework developed by mobility, and availability of risk management N. S. Jodha (1992). options. Marginality refers to the relative "endowments" of a system. In a mountain IPCC Framework on Vulnerability system marginality is often very evident and is The IPCC framework has emerged as a key created by slope/altitude, low resource foundation for discussions about climate change productivity and reinforced by lack of social and vulnerability within the international political capital. Mountain communities are community. It builds on both risk hazard often faced with difficulties in securing tenancy approaches, which examine the impacts of a rights over land and forests and gaining access single event, often a disaster, and livelihoods to social services (e.g. credit, education, and approaches, which situate vulnerability in the health), partly because of the problem of the broader social fabric (Ribot, 2009). tough terrain and partly due to their inadequate representation in policy-making bodies. The IPCC defines vulnerability as a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate Fragility can best be understood as the variation to which a system is exposed, its diminished capacity of a social or ecological system to buffer shocks. Ecologically, mountains are fragile due to low carrying capacity, slope Mountain Vulnerability Framework and relief. Fragility has social dimensions as Both the IPCC and mountain specificities well, because people live precariously on frameworks have intrinsic strengths and scattered, scarce and periodically unavailable weaknesses, and we propose to combine and livelihood resources. expand on them in order to have a tool that can be utilized in the various vulnerability Diversity, niche and adaptive capacity capture assessments the World Bank and others are different coping abilities and strategies that currently engaged in. The table (figure 2) gives a emerge from natural resource management schematic overview of the combined patterns, livelihood endowments, and cultural framework. In addition, the table expands on practices. this synthesis by introducing biophysical and socioeconomic components as well as a set of sample indicators that can be used. Figure2: Mountain Vulnerability Framework: Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Social/ Spatial Social Social Ethnic/ Spatial Resilience Biodiversity Political Marginality Marginality fragility Livelihood Accessibility Accessibility Landslide Agriculture Percent of Recovery rate Household Plant/crop Proportion of Road length/ Literacy frequency productivity children (girl of mountain indebtness diversity index household population ratio rate(female) and per unit of child) under rangeland after income from magnitude land five who are drought Loss of annual Non-farming underweight. man-days Invasive/native sector Time/ distance Proportion of Number of Regeneration due to plant ratio per from settlement/ government's cattle per unit Poverty rate rate of environmentally unit area Percentage of production site to fund to the area in a biomass/ unit sensitive traditional market mountain Drought rangeland time/unit area. disease/ knowledge regions. frequency/i natural hazards passed from ntensity one generation to other. Marginality Fragility Diversity/Niche Accessibility Conclusion the development of more tailored adaptation The Mountain Vulnerability Framework merges strategies that take into account the impact of and aligns the IPCC and mountain specificities climate change and socio-economic frameworks, thereby integrating global criteria determinants. Furthermore, the framework can for describing vulnerability with more serve as an essential tool in not only contextual parameters for mountain ecosystems. ameliorating and reducing the impact of climate It highlights the importance of both biophysical change on mountain communities but also to and socioeconomic factors in assessing help these communities achieve comparative vulnerability, and offers sample indicators that advantages and build social equity. can be modified or expanded depending on the specific focus of the assessment. In addition, the framework is scalable both in terms of time and This note was prepared by Gernot Brodnig and Vivek space and can thus be employed for different Prasad. Additional copies can also be requested via e-mail: socialdevelopment @worldbank.org assessment purposes, from project to country level. Hence, this framework would allow for Key References Jodha, N. S. (1992). Mountain Perspective and Sustainability: A framework for Development Strategy. In Sustainable Mountain Agriculture (Eds.). New Delhi. Kohler, T. and Maselli, D. (2009). Mountains and Climate Change - From Understanding to Action(eds). Published by Geographica Bernensia with the support of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), and an international team of contributors. Bern. IPCC, (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Accessed from http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm Hahn, M. B., Riederer, A. M., Foster S.O (2009).The Livelihood Vulnerability Index: A pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change--A case study in Mozambique. Global Environmental Change 19 : 74­88 Ribot, J. C. (2009). Vulnerability Does Not Just Fall from the Sky: Toward Multi-Scale Pro-Poor Climate Policy. In The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: Equity and Vulnerability in a Warming World, ed. R. Mearns and A. Norton. Washington, DC: World Bank.