Monitoring real-time labor market trends through online job vacancies – North Macedonia In dynamic economies, real-time labor market information based on online sources has become an integral part of labor market monitoring and is increasingly used to inform policy decisions. Data from online job portals complements rather than replace existing sources of labor market information and can be used to inform career guidance for young and unemployed people as well as programing decisions in education and training, as input into curricula or for business support services. With the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, the availability of readily available labor market information has become even more relevant. The World Bank has started collecting information on vacancies from online job portals in Kosovo since 2019 and three other Western Balkan countries since May 2020. This brief focuses on North Macedonia and is based on data collected in June, July and August 2020 from a number of private and public online job portals (see Methodology box). Between June and August 2020, three Figure 1 – Map showing total number and geographic distribution of online postings on public and private job portals times more postings were published online on the portal of the Public Employment Private Job Portals Public Job Portal (Public Service than on the private job portals Employment Services) which were tracked. This contrasts with other Western Balkan countries, where private portals tend to lead in terms of number of postings. Most vacancies posted on private job portals are concentrated in the economic center of Skopje, whereas vacancies published on the website of North Macedonia’s Public Employment Ginovci Rosoman Kriva Palanka Service (http://www.av.gov.mk) cover Jegunovce Lipkovo Sandevo Slatino LjubotenRezhanovce more cities and are more evenly spread Tearce Kratovo Kamenica Volkovo Singelikj KUMANOVO across the country. TETOVO Arachinovo SKOPJE Oreshani Probishtip Kochani Bogovinje Petrovec Sveti Nikole Delchevo Vrapchishte Zhelino Studenichani Vinica Sopishte Zrnovci Zelenikovo Lozovo Karbinci Pehchevo Methodology: In North Macedonia, online GOSTIVAR VELES Lukovo Leunovo Makedonski SHTIP vacancy data was collected from 3 major Brod Berovo Mavrovo Chashka Gradsko Radovish private job portals and the portal of the Debar Kichevo Plasnica Crnilishte Negotino Vasilevo Public Employment Service (http:// Centar Novo Selo Rosoman Bosilovo Zhupa Chashka Glishikj Novo Selo www.av.gov.mk). The private portals were Zlesti Valandovo Krushevo Lubanishta Trebenishta Demir Kapija STRUMICA chosen among a list of 10 based on their Babino Krivo Goshtani STRUGA Velmej Kavadarci Demir Prilep Furka relevance (volume of views and feedback Hisar OHRID Gevgelija Bogdanci Nov Dojran Mogila from local labor market experts) and Resen Star Dojran Shipokno Bitola content breadth (details available beyond Novaci Konjsko job title and description, such Ljubojno as location, type of contract, experience required, etc.). The data extracted from these websites was harmonized, cleaned and deduplicated (i.e., a simple algorithm deleted postings that appeared on multiple platforms). Postings were 2552 7499 mapped to industries (NACE taxonomy) using a combination of information from business registries and specialized 924 834 794 2169 3133 2197 websites. June July August June July August  ublic Job Portal (Public P Employment Services) Private Job Portals Total Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 1957 801 2758 Manufacturing 1226 385 1611 Accommodation and food service activities 867 84 951 Transportation and storage 622 106 728 Construction 637 84 721 Information and communication 286 317 603 Professional, scientific and technical activities 468 115 583 Administrative and support service activities 220 217 437 Human health and social work activities 302 94 396 Arts, entertainment and recreation 121 98 219 Other service activities 145 33 178 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 147 15 162 Education 130 22 152 Financial and insurance activities 82 53 135 Real estate activities 49 25 74 Mining and quarrying 45 12 57 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 13 25 38 Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation ctivities 24 3 27 Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies 4 5 9 Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 1 0 1 Unknown 153 58 211 Figure 2 – Distribution of online postings by industry (public/private portals and total) 71 percent of all online job postings are in the services These findings suggest that private portals may be prevalent in sector, which accounts for more than half of employment in sectors associated with a higher proportion of medium to high- North Macedonia and was also the sector with the largest skilled jobs. employment growth in 2019.1 Data from online job postings can also be processed to provide A closer look at the data shows that the largest number of more granular information on occupations, skills and other vacancies was posted by wholesale and retail trade companies attributes demanded in the labor market. For example, Figure 3 (27 percent of vacancies), followed by firms in the shows that there is currently high demand for those working in manufacturing industry (16 percent of vacancies) and non-specialised stores selling food and beverages mostly, for businesses focused on accommodation and food service non-specialised wholesale trade workers and for workers in activities (10 percent of vacancies). specialised clothing stores. Further analysis on the skills demanded by employers for workers in these occupations can be The sectoral focus of the portal of the Public Employment used to inform the design of training programs, including Active Service does not differ as significantly from private portals as in Labor Market Programs offered by Public Employment Services, other Western Balkan countries, but there is some variation. about the needs of the private sector. For example, the Skills Vacancies related to manufacturing, accommodation and food Online Vacancy Analysis Tool for Europe (Skills-OVATE2) offers service activities, transportation and storage, and construction, detailed information on skills that employers demand in online are predominantly advertised through the public portal. job advertisements, by presenting skills requirements within Conversely, vacancies in information and communication are selected occupations, using ESCO (the classification of European somewhat more predominant on private portals. Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations). 1 World Bank and wiiw (2020): Western Balkans Labor Market Trends 2020 2 https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/data-visualisations/skills-online-vacancies/ Wholesale and Retail sale in non-specialised stores with retail trade; food, beverages or tobacco predominating 369 repair of motor vehicles and Non-specialised wholesale trade 244 motorcycles Retail sale of clothing in specialised stores 181 1647 Other retail sale in non-specialised stores Non-specialised wholesale of food, beverages 108 165 and tobacco Dispensing chemist in specialised stores 99 Other retail sale of new goods in specialised stores 96 Retail sale of furniture, lighting equipment and other household articles in specialised stores 79 Wholesale of wood, construction materials and sanitary equipment 82 Retail sale of automotive fuel in specialised stores 61 Retail sale of hardware, paints and glass in specialised stores 59 Retail sale of footwear and leather goods in specialised stores 53 Wholesale of hardware, plumbing and heating equipment and supplies 51 Figure 3 – Example of disaggregated industry information available through online vacancies Job portals (both private and public) cover a selected segment of the labor market, as many jobs are still filled through informal channels in North Macedonia. Yet, the monitoring of online vacancies can provide real-time information on industry-specific trends, which is particularly important during the COVID-19 crisis. The example presented in Figure 4 shows that industries at risk during the COVID-19 pandemic3 (denoted in red) are the ones still generating most vacancies, as of August 2020. Conversely, sectors facing lower risk may even experience larger number of postings than usual, as it is probably the case for human health and social work activities. More analysis will be performed to confirm these initial hypotheses. Longer-time series can be used to monitor the impact of the COVID-19 crisis by sectors as well as their recovery, by providing real time and disaggregated data. While the information presented in this note only provides a quick snapshot, emerging practices around the world show that information from public and private portals increasingly complement each other. Partnerships to share and disseminate this data could be used to: •increase the pool of vacancies across public and private actors to better inform jobseekers about job opportunities; • inform the design of training programs in demand by firms; and • shape expectations and direct youth towards sectors of the economy that generate jobs. This example is illustrative of the potential power of real-time data. These new initiatives can indeed provide researchers and policy makers with rich real-time data that can be used to monitor both the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the labor market and detect promising paths during the recovery. 3 Based on the International Labor Organization’s classification of sectors by vulnerability level. The classification indicates the vulnerability of the sectors to the current crisis measured by indicators such as the share of employment in small businesses, share of own-account workers or size of firms as well as the exposure of sectors to activities partially or fully closed due to lockdowns. Low Medium Medium Medium High Low High June July August Total Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 910 1028 820 2758 Manufacturing 466 677 468 1611 Accommodation and food service activities 310 384 257 951 Professional, scientific and technical activities 153 245 185 583 Administrative and support service activities 139 169 129 437 Real estate activities 30 33 11 74 Transportation and storage 211 275 242 728 Information and communication 167 259 177 603 Arts, entertainment and recreation 85 77 57 219 Other service activities 55 66 57 178 Construction 236 292 193 721 Financial and insurance activities 46 53 36 135 Mining and quarrying 20 22 15 57 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 50 61 51 162 Human health and social work activities 108 159 129 396 Education 29 60 63 152 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 12 4 22 38 Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 8 12 7 27 Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies 2 6 1 9 Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 1 1 Unknown 56 84 71 211 International Labor Organization’s classification of sectors by vulnerability level, measured by indicators such as the share of employment in small businesses, share of own-account workers or size of firms as well as the exposure of sectors to activities partially or fully closed due to lock-downs. TOTAL 3093 3967 2991 Figure 4 – Distribution of online postings by industry and by month, classified by COVID-19 vulnerability index Authors: Stefanie Brodmann, Alicia Marguerie, and Cornelius Claus Von Lenthe (Social Protection and Jobs, World Bank) based on joint work with Calogero Brancatelli (Goethe University Frankfurt) and Giannis Tzimas (University of Peloponnese). Acknowledgments : This work has been co-financed by the Austrian Ministry of Finance.