EC-69 SL j This report was prepared for use within the Bank. In making it available to others, the Bank assumes no responsibility to them for the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTIVE GROWTH IN WORLD PULP AND PAPER CONSUMPTION AND TRADE March 6, 1959 Economic Staff Prepared by- A.J. Macone Prospective Growth in 'orld Pulp and Paper Consumption and Trade Table of Contaents Page Sumnary . * * . * . * * * * * * * * * * * Introduction . . . . ........ . .1 Consumption trends. . . . . . . . . . . 1 Future consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . * 3 Impact on trade . . . . . * * * * * * * * * * Conclusion . . . . . . . * * * * * * * 8 Summary The postwar period was one of relatively rapid growth in world consumption of pulp and paper. Compared to an average rate of increase of about 4-Of per year between the early 1920's and the mid-1950's, postwar consumption of pulp and paper increased at average rates of 7% per year and 6)o% per year, respectively. In general, production of pulp and paper during this period only barely kept pace with demand except in recessionary years, when paper consumption dropped or lagged. Newsprint in particular was frequently in short supply. By 1957-58, how- ever, completion of new projects undertaken in the boom period of the mid-1950's coincided with the recession in North America and surplus capacity developed, al- though the surplus does not appear to be of serious proportions. The relatively tight supply situation that prevailed during most of the post- war period, and a desire on the part of governments to conserve foreign exchange, spurred on efforts in deficit regions (i.e., all areas except Scandinavia and Canada) to increase domestic production of pulp and paper. Despite this, however, .the import gaps of most deficit regions inceased, the greatest increase in the import deficit taking place in Western Europe (excluding the Scandinavian countries and Austrf The prospects for the future, through 1964-66, are for continued growth in both consumption and trade and an easier supply situation at least in the early part of the period. Based on prospective income growth between the mid-1950's and the mid-1960's world consumption of paper should continue to expand at an average rate of about 4j%-5% per year (pulp consumption should grow at approximately the same rate) compared to the postwar rate of 61-% per year. The projected rate of growth in world paper consumption reflects projections of somewhat slower rates of increase in paper consumption in Europe, North America, Japan, and Oceania (Austra- lia and New Zealand), while consumption in Asia (other than Japan), Latin America and Africa is expected to rise at substantially the same rates recorded in the post- war period. In Western Europe, which is the most important market for the Scan- dinavian supplirs, paper consumption is projected to rise at a rate of 4jfo-6% per year. In the absence of a more detailed study however, it would seem appropriate to rely on the lower limit of the projected range for purposes of project analyses, subject to any additional information that may be developed later. Even on the assumption of the lower projected rate of increase in consumption, however, and assuming that pulp production in Europe (excluding Scandinavia) will increase more slowly than in the postwar period, the present analysis indicate . that by 1964-66 net world import requirements (in terms of pulp or pulp equivalent of paper) should be in the order of at least 21- million tons higher than it was in 1957, and probably more. The bulk of this expansion in export opportunities should occur in the European market where the Scandinavian exporting countries have a natural advantage in competition vis a vis North American exports. Prospective growth in world pulp and paper consumption and trade Introduction 1. The purpose of this memorandum is to arrive at a tentative projection of future growth in world pulp and paper demand and to analyze the effects of such growth on future international trade in those products. 2. Woodpulp is the principal raw material for making paper and board. "Paper and board" are treated in the aggregate in this paper but it should be noted that the term covers a large number of individual products, each with special uses in a number of fields, principally writing and printing, packaging and building. Paper and board account for the bulk of woodpulp consumption although the textile industry also uses substantial amounts of a highly refined grade of woodpulp (dissolving pulp) for making rayon and acetate fiber. 3. World!/ production of pulp and paper in 1957 amounted to some 57 million tons of paper and board and around 45 million tons of wood- pulp (the amount of paper produced is greater than that of pulp because paper generally contains other materials in addition to woodpulp). The bulk of this output -- roughly 90% -- is made and consumed in Europe and North America. In a prosperous year such as 1996, almost 1/ of the world's production of pulp and paper enters the export trade. This trade includes e,q ports of net importing countries, including countries that are substantial net importers of pulpwood, pulp and paper, or all three, but is largely accounted for by a few major net exporting countries: Canada (whose principal market is the U.S.), and Sweden, Finland, Norway and, to a lesser degree, Austria (whose principal market is Europe). The U.S. is a net importer of pulp and newsprint but exports a considerable quantity of paper other than newsprint. Consumption trends 4. Growth in world consumption of pulp and paper has been relatively vigorous especially since after the war. Between the early 1920's and the mid-1950's world consumption of pulp and paper has been growing at an average rate of about 4- $ per year (Table I in the Appendix). In the postwar period, consumption has been increasing at abou4t W1f per year for paper and about 7% per year for woodpulp. This difference reflects the fact that woodpulp is used for making rayon fiber (production of which was expanding even faster than paper) as well as paper, and that in the U.S. the amount of pulp used per unit of paper produced has increased in the postwar period. 5. World consumption of paper has climbed steadily each year since the war through 1957 with the exception of a drop in the recessionary year 1952. Data for 1958 on pulp and paper comparable to the FAO data used in this memorandum will not be available for some time. However, statistics for the U.S. covering the period through the third quarter indicate that despite the sharp recession earlier in the year U.S. consumption is likely to be no more than 2 - 232% below 1957 consumption. In Europe data for the OEEC countries indicate that European paper consumption in 1958 may be some 2% higher than in 1957. Thus, assuming that aggregate consumption in other countries in 1958 rose only by some 5%, world total paper consumption in 1958 probably was about the same as in 1957. 1/ "World" in this paper excludes the soviet Bloc countries unless otherwise stated. - 2 - 6. This halt in the upward march of paper consumption came at an awkward time for pulp and paper producers, namely, just when expansion programs set off by an almost chronic pulp and paper shortage since the war were being completed. Hence, for the first time in years an industry that, on the whole, had become accustomed to long periods of close-to- capacity operation saw the emergence of surplus capacity. 7. The existence of surplus producing capacity, however, does not appear to be as serious a problem as seemed to be the case early in 1958. The strong probability that world consumption in 1958 did not fall below 1957, and the fact that in the face of the U.S. recession U.S. consumption fell only slightly and European consumption rose, indicate not only that pulp and paper demand continues basically strong but also that consumption should not have great difficulty in "catching up" to existing capacity. In addition, known planned expansions in capacity in the immediete future seem moderate in relation to prospective growth in consumption (although presumably they could be stepped up). For example, pulp capacity in the U.S. grew 8%.between January 1958 and January 1959 but, according to estimates of the U.S. Pulp Producers Association, is expected to increase by only 1% between January 1959 and January 1960. Preliminary estimates indicate no further net increase as of January 1961. Canadian pulp capacity grew 1.7% between 1958 and 1959 and is expected to remain virtually unchanged through January 1960. As for expansion in paper- making capacity estimates published in mid-1957 on U.S. paper and board capacity indicated that the maximum expansion between 1958 and 1959 could have been as much as 5% if projects were included which were proposed but not yet decided upon. The intervening recession probably caused the postponing of some of these expansion projects. Only scattered data are available on expansion projects in other countries, but a U.S. Department of Commerce survey of the world newsprint situation indicates that as of 1960 maximum world output of newsprint would be only 117 greater than expected demand. 8. As stated above existing surplus capacity in pulp and paper does not appear to be a serious problem. In fact, in many respects a certain amount of "excess" capacity might be regarded as a useful reserve in an industry characterized by periodic suply shortages since the end of the war. Nevertheless it should be recognized that, barring a boom comparable to that of the mid-1950 's, pulp and paper is likely to be in relatively plentiful supply in the early 1960's. 9. As is shown by Table II in the Appendix consumption of paper in the postwar decade grew at widely different rates in different areas -- 9.h% per year in Europe, 4.5% per year in the U.S., over 5% per year in Canada and in Latin America, over 71fo per year in Oceania (Australia and New Zealand),over 10% per year in Africa and in Asia (excluding Japan), and almost 25% per year in Japan. In the U.S. and Canada, where per capita consumption of paper is the highest in the world, the rate of growth reflects about a 1:1 ratio to income growth. The higher rates of consump- tion growth in the other areas, as compared to North America, and the diff- erences in growth rates among those areas (for example, the faster rate of consumption growth in Europe compared to Latin America), reflect factors - such as suppression of demand through import restrictions to conserve foreign exchange (especially severe in the case of newsprint) as well as differences in the levels of and rate of growth in per capita income. -3- Future consumption 10. Table III in the appendix relates, for representative periods, growth in paper consumption to economic growth in the consuming regions for which income data is available.1,/ The relationship thus established provides a basis for projection of future regional paper consumption. However in some cases the correlation between economic growth and paper requirements has been modified to reflect qualitative judgments as to the future course of consumption. 11. Based largely on the postwar relationship of paper consumption to economic growth, world consumption of paper is tentatively projected to grow at the rate of around h1% - 5% per year between the mid-1950's and the mid-1960's, compared to a growth of 61-0 per year in the postwar period. This is derived from tentative projections for paper consumption growth of about 3.4% per year in the U.S., 4.61o - 5.9% per year in Western Europe, over 5% per year in Latin America, almost 7 per year in Oceania (Australia and New Zealand), around 8 - 9% per year in Japan, 10% per year in Africa and over 10o per year in Asia (excluding Japan). (The detailed projections by region are shown in Table IV in the appendix.) The overall projection of world consumption growth largely reflects two assumptions: (a) that the average rate of economic growth in the main consuming areas will be slower in the projection period than in the preceding period2/, and (b) that the ratio of paper consumption to economic growth in Europe and Japan may decline from what it was in the postwar period. Assumption (a) alone resulted in the higher limit of the projected range and assumption (a) plus (b) resulted in the lower estimate. 12. The tentative projection of U.S. paper consumption growth at 3.46 per year is based on a conservative estimate of GNP growth of 3.1% per year, and is substantially the same as a U.S. Department of Commerce estimate of U.S. paper consumption growth of about 3.3% per year over the same period. The projection of paper consumption growth in Europe is expressed as a range of 4.6% to 5.9% per year, the higher rate expressing a continuation of the postwar ratio of 1.8:1 in the relationship between paper consumption growth and GNP growth and the lower rate reflecting an assumed possible ratio of only 1.4:1 in the future growth pattern.2/ Similarly the projection of paper consumption in Japan is expressed as a range of 7.7% to 9.0% reflecting at the upper limit a continuation of the postwar relationship between paper consumption growth and GNP growth (2:1) and at the lower limit a downward adjustment of that relationship (1.7:1)./ In both cases the range of estimates is intended to provide for the possib- ility that the rapid postwar growth in paper consumption might have been unduly influenced by the postwar recovery and reconstruction period. It should be noted, however, that even in the recent period 1954-1997 the ratio of paper consumption to GNP growth in Europe has ranged from 1.5 to 1.7. 13. On the whole woodpulp consumption should approximately keep up with growth in paper consumption. GNP data taken from Report No. E.C. 68, World Economic Growth, 195-1962. 2 See op. cit. 3 The lower ratio reflects the results of a previous preliminary study in the Bank on the income elasticity of demand based on a comparison of per capita income and paper consumption in selected countries and areas in 1955. Impact on trade 14. Given these consumption prospects, what are their implications for world trade? An indication may be obtained from an examination of Table V in the Appendix which shows the net positions of the various geographic regions with respect to production and consumption of pulp and paper. Future changes in those positions will strongly influence whether international trade will expand or not (changes in net regional import or export trade, of course, indicate only the minirum possible changes in international trade since they do not necessarily reflect changes in gross exports). In the postwar period the tendency has been for most deficit regions (all regions except Northern Europe and Canada are deficit regions) either to experience a widening gap between their output and consumption of pulp or paper, or both, or to succeed in expanding output just sufficiently to keep pace with additional consumption. The increase in the net import gap in pulp and paper between 1950 and 1955-57 has been most marked in Western Europe (excluding Scandinavia) and, to a lesser extent, in Asia Latin America, too, has experienced an increased deficit position. In the U.S. the trend is not altogether clear. Through 1956 the tendency has been toward slightly increasing net imports of paper -- accounted for largely by newsprint -- and a slightly decreased dependence on woodpulp imports. The data for 1957 cannot be fitted unqualifiedly into the trend because they reflect the beginning of the 1957/58 recession and a rather sudden appearance of excess production capacity domestically which was certain to distort established trade patterns. 15. Based on the tendency toward continuing or increasing import deficits for most regions in recent years and some assumptions as to the probable course of internal pulp production in these regions in the future the prospect would seem to be for a further expansion in international trade in pulp and paper, especially in Europe. 16. On the basis of the projected range of growth rates indicated above, consumption of paper in Europe excluding Scandinavia in the mid-1960's (1964-66) is likely to average some 19.4-22 million tons per year, or about 5-7.5 million tons more than consumption in 1957. At current conversion factors it should require in the order of 3.5-5.3 million tons of woodpulp to produce those additional quantities of paper. The significance of this for the export trade of the major exporting countries, however, depends on how much of these additional pulp requirements will be met from internal production and how much from increased imports. 17. Pulp production in Europe outside Scandinavia expanded at an average rate of 716 per year between 1950 and 1957. The question is whether this rate of expansion will be maintained. Unfortunately, no published information seems to be available on the aggregate future expansion plans of the woodpulp industry in Europe excluding Scandinavia. Published studies of the past few years, however, strongly imply a view on the part of the authors of these studies that woodpulp production in this area is not likely to continue to exand at as high a rate as that achieved in 1950-1957. A study by the Pulp and Paper Committee of the OEEC published in February 1957, commenting on the future growth of that area's woodpulp capacity, concluded that "from now until 1960, it does not seem too much to expect an annual increase of 2.5 percent in production capacity . . ." This statement cannot be taken to mean that that rate of e:ansion is the best that can be achieved but it does seem to imply that the actual rate will not be substantially higher. An earlier study by the Canadian Pulp and Paper Association published in January, 1956 implied an even more pessimistic view of the future expansion of pulp production in Europe outside acandinaviay 18. These studies may have been conservative in their view on future expansion of pulp production in Europe but an independent examination of available evidence also indicates that continued expansion at the 1950- 1957 rate of increase would have its difficulties. As stated above, pulp production in Europe, ex-luding Scandinavia, expanded at an average rate of 7% per year between 1950 and 1957. This expansion, however, not only required a substantial increase in pulpwood removals within the area during that period (probably aided by the availability of wood previously used for pitprops) but also greatly increased this area's dependence on imports of pulpwood. During that period net imports of pulpwood by the major pulp producing countries of Europe (excluding Scandinavia) increased 165% (net imports from outside the area probably almost doubled). According to OEEC statistics the proportion of member countries' (excluding Scandinavian members) ou-put of paper grade woodpulp that was produced from imported pul2.wood rose from 18% in 1950 to 38% in 1957. (It may be of interest to note by way of contrast that in the U.S. which is a net importer of pulp just as most European countries are, imported pulpwood amounts to around 5/ of total pulpwood needs.) These trends imply that existing wood resources available to the area for pulp making are already heavily committed to maintaining current output levels. 19. There is additional evidence indicating that the future supply position of pulpwood for this area is less favorable to a continued rapid expansion of w6?dpulp production than it was during 1950-1957. A survey of wood fellings programs of European countries completed by the ECE in September 1957 indicates that fellings of industrial wood in Europe, excluding Scandinavia, increased by about 27% between 1950 and 1955 but are expected to increase by only another 8% between 1955 and 1965. It is not entirely clear whether this projected increase is the limit allowed by forest growth although aoparently it is at least close to such a limit as presently estimated. These estimates, of course, may be revised, and in any case do not reveal the extent of the possibilities for further diversion of wood now used for purposes other than pulpwood. However, the forecast does indicate a less favorable supply situation in raw materials in the future as compared to that of the past. 20. This seems to be true also of import availabilities of wood. The major exporters of pulpwood in Europe are Finland and Sweden followed by Yugoslavia. Of these, however, the first two are also the major producers and exporters of pulp and paper in Lurope, and heavily dependent on those 1/ The studies cited are: Canadian Pulp and Paper Association, Submission to Royal Commission on Canada's Economic Prospects, January 1956; and OEEC, The Pulp and Paper Industry in Europe: Its Trend from 1950 to 1955 and Its Future Prospects, February 1957. - 6 - exports. horeover Finland, at least, is known to be planning a major expansion in its own pulp and paper output. Yet the ECE survey indicates that, as is the case in Europe outside Scandinavia, fellings of industrial wood in Scandinavia are expected to increase by only 13% between 1955 and 1965 compared to an increase of about 28'0 between 1950 and 1955. 21. These factors would suggest that continued rapid expansion in European pulp production outside Scandinavia, such as that which took place between 1950 and 1957, might encounter di'fi:'ulties with respect to an assured and expanding supply of wood, and might result in driving up the cost of raw materials for that industry. Under these circumstances, the pulp industries located in the raw materials importing countries (Europe ex c.andinavia) are likely to be at a disadvantage in'securing their' require- ments for expansion. It seems reasonable, therefore, to assume that in the period 1957 to 1964-66, European pulp production outside Scandinavia is not likely to expand as rapidly as it did during the 1950's. 22. The question of how much European (ex Scandinavia) pulp pro- duction is likely to rise by 1964-66 can be answered only very approximately. In the period 1954-1957, pulp production in Europe excluding Scandinavia increased at a rate of around 240,000 tons per year, based both on domestic and imported pulpwood. In the light of the analysis in paragraphs 17 - 21, a guess - estimate can be made that between 1957 and 1964-66, the average increase in pulp production will amount to 160-200,000 tons, or about o%, per year. 23. If European pulp production (excluding Scandinavia) should rise in the future at the rate indicated above (by 160,000 to 200,000 tons per year) that area's pulp production as of 1964-66 should be about 1.5 million tons higher than in 1957. On this assumption annual aggregate net imports of pulp, or pulp-equivalent of paper, into Europe excluding Scandinavia could average some 2-3.8 million tons (in pulp equivalent) more in 1964-66 than they were in 1957. As mentioned previously, however, the projected rate on which the higher quantity is based may be influenced by postwar recovery factors operating during the time period from which that rate is derived. In the absence of a more detailed study, therefore, it seems prudent to assume that the increase will amount to only the lower estimate of about 2 million tons. Even on this basis it seems clear that Europe outside ocandinavia promises to provide an expanding market for pulp and paper for the major exporting countries. 24. In areas other than Europe the prospects for expanded trade are less clear although generally favorable. In the case of the U.S. the projections in the Department of Commerce study cited above imply that U.S. pulp and paper imports will increase somewhat but that exports will increase more, with the result that the net deficit position of the U.S. would shrink, as compared with 1954 by about 1/2 million tons of pulp and paper. The increased exports, however, are predicated on the assumption that pulp and paper production outside North America will not rise rapidly enough to meet increased consumption demand. It is not clear whether, if the U.S. failed to fin: export outlets for these amounts, they would be produced anyway for domestic consumption (i.e., displace an equivalent amount of imports) or whether they would not be produced at all. The question would seem to be whether U.S. producers will improve their competitive position vis a vis imported supplies in the U.S. market. On balance, it would seem prudent to assume that the U.S. deficit position on pulp and paper may either remain at recent levels or shrink somewhat. 25. With respect to Japan it seems clear that this country's increas- ing net export position on paper in recent years has depended on increasing imports of pulp. Japan's pulp deficit promises to grow greater in the future, particularly if it tries to maintain or expand exports of pulp products. Assuming that woodpulp consumption in Japan will keep pace with the projected growth in domestic paper consumption it would seem probable- that Japan's net pulp imorts by the mid-1960's would at least double, i.e., rise from 118,000 tons in 1957 to about 350,000 tons. 26. Of the other regions Asia (ex Japan) seems likely to experience a further increase in net import requirements of both pulp and paper. It seems unlikely that the industry in this area can expand fast enough to keep up with the high rate of growth in paper consumption demand. The same should be true of Africa. The emergence of the new nations in West Africa should give further impetus to growth in consumption of pulp and paper and the continental import deficit in pulp which seemed to disappear in 1957 probably will re-emerge. In Latin America the net deficit in pulp may be reduced or stabilized at the current level over the next few years under the impact of government policies to conserve foreign exchange, although the outcome of such policies is not certain. As for Oceania (Australia and New Zealand), the successful establishment and expansion of the pulp industry in that area in the postwar period will probably mean either a continued decline or a stabilizing of net pulp and paper imports over the next few years. 27. It might be noted with respect to the import deficits of the less developed areas that the pulp and paper industry requires relatively large amounts of capital investment per ton of capacity and in less developed areas this consideration alone makes it difficult for production to keep pace with typically rapidly rising consumption requirements. As for the more distant future, the ability of these largely tropical areas to meet their additional requirements, or reduce their present dependence on imports, depends basically on technological developments - specifically their ability to make pulp from tropical woods economically and equal in quality to traditional woodpulp. The solutions to the problems involved in utilizing the wood resources of tropical forests have not yet been found. How long it will be before they are found is still not certain. However, even when they are found, it will probably take several years to bring new projects into production. A new mill in the temperate zones ordinarily takes about 3 years from the planning stage to the operating stage. 28. The future position of the Soviet Union must be considered as a major uncertainty with respect to the prospects for expanding trade among Western countries. However, it seems highly unlikely that the U.S.S.R. will become a significant net exporter to the West in the next six years. The U.S.S.R. possesses vast softwood forests which could support a greatly expanded pulp and paper industry but it is generally agreed that much remains to be done, particularly in developing transportation facilities - 8 - between them and the consuming centers, before they can be exploited. In the postwar period, Russia and the other Bloc countries either have been satisfied merely to increase output sufficiently to keep pace with growth in their internal consumption requirements or have been unable to produce any appreciable surplus for export outside the Bloc. Under the current Seven Year Plan, expansion of total pulp and paper production in the U.S.S.R. apparently will proceed at a somewhat lower rate bet;feen ak15- 56 and 1965 than it did between 1947-L9 and 1954-56. Indications are that through 1965 Soviet expansion of pulp and paper will go largely toward meeting growth in requirements in the U.L.S.R. and the Bloc. 29. The principal countries that will compete for the prospective expanded trade in pulp and paper are Canada, Finland, Norway and Sweden, and the U.S. and Austria to a lesser extent. Finland's share will depend on its competitiveness and the ability of other exporting countries to increase their own output and exports. On this point the OEEC seems to doubt whether Norway can continue to expand its output of forest products at the same rate as in the past. Austria, too, has a relatively limited raw material base on which to expand, and the export position of the U.S., except in some Latin American countries, will depend on the ability of the U.S. to improve its competitive position. Canada has very large wood resources for use in future expansion but there is no indica- tion that it plans to accelerate the relatively roderate rate OE expansion achieved during 1950-1957. 30. One of the factors that will be relevant tn the competitive pcsition, in the European market, bf the major exporting countries supplying that market will be whether a Free Trade Area will come into existence in Europe and, it so, whether it will include the European exporters.1/ European countries have relatively low duties on pulp and newsprint but high duties on paper. The U.K., for example, has duties of 15 to 20% on paper other than newsprint. Newsprint, together with woodpulp, is duty free. The prospective European Common 1darket duties will be 5% on news- print and a range from 14% to 21% on other papers on which agreement has been reached (the pulp duty remains to be negotiated). If a Free Trade Area is instituted, additional pulp and paper capacity that might otherwise have come into being in Europe outside acancinavia under the protection of import duties may be discouraged, thus further increasing the trade opportunities of any Scandinavian countries included in the arrangement. Conclusion 31. It is concluded that there are good prospects for appreciable expansion in world trade in pulp and paper, in the order of at least 2q million tons of pulp equivalent and perhaps more, by the mid-1960's. This expansion should be met largely from increased exports by the traditional exporting countries. Since most of this expansion will occur in Europe the Scandinavian countries should be favorably situated to take advantage of the increase in import demand. 1/ The institution of the Common Market is not expected to create any appreciable problems for Scandinavian pulp and paper exports since the existing duties of the Common 'Aarket countries are fairly uniform. Table I Growth in world pulp and paper consumption (ex Soviet Bloc) (1000 Metric Tons, annual average) 1922-24 1936-38 197-49 1954-56 Chemical pulp 5,381 11,893 16,643 27,769 Mechanical pulp 7,705 9,056 14,050 Total 9,858 19,598 25,699 41,819 Newsprint 4,025 6,808 7,200 10,561 Other paper 18,56o 27o392 43,176 Total 13,645 25,368 34,592 53,737 Table II Paper consumption by areas, 1947-49 to 1954-56 (1000 metric tons) Average Average Annual rate 1947-49 1954-56 of increase Europe, ex Soviet Bloc Newsprint 1,346 2,693 10.5% Other 6,101 11395 9.3% Total 7,47 16,oa8 9.5% U.S.A. Newsprint 4,695 5,895 3.14% Other 18 144 25,433 5.o% Total 31*28 4.6% Canada Newsprint 306 404 4.1% Other 1,133 1,661 .5'6% Total lTj9 7065 5.3% Latin America Newsprint 379 478 3.4% Other 845 1 6.0 Total 1,224 1,7 5.2% Asia, ex Japan Newsprint 115 224 10.0% Other 270 690 14.4% Total 385 9114 13.1% Japan Newsprint 100 454 24.1% Other 360 1 71-4 25.0% Total 460 ,to 24.8% Africa Newsprint 71 99 4.8% Other 196 446 12.4% Total 267 545 10.7% Oceania Newsprint 187 314 7.6% Other 343 566 7.4% Total 530 7.5% Table III Relationship of paper consumption growth to GNP growth Paper consumption GNP Ratio paper Projected Area Period growth growth consumption tn GNP _ GNP _ (-percent per year---) Tentative Actual Projecti USA 1947-1955 4.7 4.2 1.1 1.1 3.1 OEEC 1949-1955 9.5 5.2 1.8 1.4-1.8 3.3 Europe ex bloc 1949-1955 9.4 n.a. n.a. 1.4-1.8 3.3 Canada 1948-1955 4.8 4.7 1.0 1.0 3.6-4.5 Japan 1951-1955 17.1 8.5 2.0 1.7-2.0 4.5 India 1950/51-1955/56 9.3 3.2 2.9 Pakistan 1950-1954 12.1 2.5 4.8 Mexico 1950-1955 11.2 5.8 1.9 Australia 1947-1955 8.0 5.0 1.6 1.6 4.1 Latin America n. a. n. a. Asia ex Japan n,a. n.a. Africa n.a. n.a. Oceania n.a. n.a. Table IV Recent and projected levels of paper consumption by region Rate of growth Av. Annual (Percent per Annum) Consumption (Mill. metric tons) Tentative Tentative Actual Projection Area Postwarl/ Projection 1954-56 1964-66 U.S.A. 4.6 3.1 31.3 43.8 Canada 5.3 4.1 2.1 3.1 Europe ex bloc 9,5 4.6-$.9 14.1 22.1-25.0 Latin America 5.2 5.2 1.7 2.9 Asia ex Japan 13.1 13.0 0.9 3.1 Japan 24.8 7.7-9.0 2.2 4.6-5.2 Africa 10.7 10.0 0.5 1. Oceania 7.5 6.6 0.9 1.7 Total 6.5 4.h-h.8 53.7 83-86 1/ Period 197-49 to 1954-56. Table V-1 Past trends in regional pulp and paper production and consumption (illions of metric tons) Europe ex Scandinavial/ 1948 1950 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 Paper production 5.41 7.52 7.43 8.43 9.73 10.56 11.17 11.96 Paper consumption 6.14 8.L1 8.36 9.60 11.32 12.58 13.26 14.47 Balance -0.73 -0.89 -0.93 -1.17 -1.59 -2.02 -2.09 -2.51 Of which news- print .21 .18 .41 .38 .55 .71 .80 .89 Other .52 .71 .52 .79 1.04 1.31 1.29 1.62 Pulp production 1.56 2.19 2.26 2.41 2.80 3.07 3.32 3.53 Pulp consumption 3.80 5.18 4.99 5.62 6.65 7.44 7.70 8.09 Balance -2.2 -2.99 -2.73 -3.21 -8 -.37 -.12T -7.57 Scandinavial/ Paper production 2.88 3.18 3.10 3.49 4.12 4.56 4.81 5.17 Paper consumption 1.29 1.22 1.36 1.34 1.61 1.75 1.75 1.86 Balance 1.59 179 1.74 27 2.51 2.81 3.06 3.31 Pulp production 5.69 6.43 6.27 6.63 7.81 8.44 8.83 9.26 Pulp consumption 2.81 2.64 3.16 2.74 3.65 4.02 4.12 4.62 Balance 3.79 3.11 -3. 14.16 1.12 7 4 Europe, net oosition Paper balance 0.86 1.07 0.81 0.98 0.92 0.79 0.97 0.80 Pulp balance 0.64 0.80 0.38 0.68 0.31 9.05 0.33 0.08 1/ "Europe" excludes the Soviet Bloc; Austria is included with Scandinavia. Source: F A 0 Table V-2 Past trends in regional pulp and paper production and consumption (Millions of metric tons) U.S.A. 1948 1950 1952 1953 195h 1955 1956 1957 Paper production 19.83 22.11 22.16 24.09 24.18 28.16 28.55 27.85 Paper consumption 23.65 26.40 26.40 28.44 28.33 32.43 33.22 32.07 Balance -3.I2 7 -4.24 -77 -415 -727 777 -4.22 Of which news- print -3.96 -4.37 -4.47 -4.50 -4.4o -4.49 -4.92 -4.58 Other .14 .08 .23 .15 .25 .22 .25 .36 Pulp production 11.68 13.17 14.94 15.91 16.56 18.82 20.08 19.78 Pulp consumption 13.57 15.54 16.47 17.72 18.02 20.25 21.72 21.12 Balance -1.89 -2.07 -1.5 -146 -143 -TE 1 -13 Canada Paper production 5.85 6.18 6.53 6.69 6.94 7.26 7.71 7.60 Paoer consumption 1.54 1.64 1.63 1.78 1.93 2.00 2.27 2.21 Balance .31 757 .90 7.91 5.0-1 . 37 7.39 Pulp production 7.06 7.69 8.14 8.24 8.78 9.21 9.74 9.44 Pulp consumption 5.46 6.c4 6.43 6.51 6.84 7.12 7.64 7.42 Balance 1.90 1.76 1.71 1.73 -1-9 2.09 2.10 2.02 N. America, net position Paper balance 0.49 0.25 0.66 0.56 0.86 0.99 0.77 1.17 Pulp balance -0.29 -0.42 -0.18 -0.08 0.L8 0.66 0.46 0.68 Table V-3 Past trends in regional pulp and paper production and consumption (dillions of metric tons)1/ Latin America 1948 1950 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 Paper production 0.60 0.74 0.77 0.81 0.92 1.08 1.17 1.27 Paper consumption 1.22 1.40 1.40 1.32 1.46 1.80 1.99 2.18 Balance -.7 -0.66 --63 -0.51 --.-7 -0.72 -0.82 -0.97 Of which news- print .35 .34 .40 .33 .35 .42 .46 .52 Other .27 .32 .23 .18 .19 .30 .36 .45 Pulp production 0.17 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 Pulp consumption 0.34 0.53 0.56 0.49 0.79 0.83 0.78 0.80 Balance -0.17 -0.30 -0.31 -0.23 --.- --0 014.5 -o.iE Africa Paper production 0.0 0.06 0.10 0.1h 0.21 0.25 0.26 0.28 Paper consumption 0 29 0.35 0.42 0.42 0.51 0.57 0.56 0.61 Balance -0.2 -0.29 -0.32 -0.2J -0.30 -0.32 -0.30 -0.33 Of which news- print .08 .08 .09 .08 .08 .10 .12 .12 Other .27 .21 .23 .20 .22 .22 .18 .22 Pulp productionJ 10 17 28 39 50 84 114 125 Pulp conrumptionY 14 25 35 62 77 116 119 120 Balance- - - 7 - 23 - 27 -32 - 3 Oceania Paper production 0.25 0.29 0.33 0.30 0.43 0.53 0.60 o.64 Paper consumpt0.ion 0.55 0.56 0.81 0.50 0.74 0.97 0.92 0.92 Balance -0.30 -0.33 -,5 -0.20 -0.31 -JT X -0.32 --0.9 Of which ne-7sT- print .14 .18 .21 .13 .19 .26 .20 0.18 Other .16 .15 .27 .07 .12 .18 .12 0.10 Pulp production 0.13 0.15 0.21 0.23 0.31 0.36 0.49 0.53 Pulp consumption 0.19 0.20 0.28 0.26 0.36 0.42 0.53 0.56 Balance -0.6 -0.05 -0.07 -0.03 -D.0 -0.07 -0.0I0 -0.03 1/ Except for Africa pulp data which are shown in 1000 metric tons. 2 See note 1 above. Table V-4 Past trends in regional pulp and paper production and consumption (iviillions of metric tons)1 Asia ex Japan 1946 1950 1952 1953 1921 1955 1556 1957 Paper production 0.13 0.15 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.36 0.39 0.42 Paper consumption 0.45 0.52 0.56 0.69 0.83 0.94 0.97 1.04 Balance -0.32 -0.37 -.7 -. -057 --0.8 -G.8 --6- Of which news- print .13 .16 .12 .18 .19 .24 .18 .20 Other .19 .21 .24 .28 .35 .34 .40 .42 Pulp production / 8 7 15 23 28 27 33 32 Pulp consumption2/ 18 17 28 45 80 77 84 104 Balance/ - 10 - 10 - 13 - 22 T - - 72 Japan Paper production 0.44 0.89 1.36 1.77 1.914 2.22 2.59 2.99 Paper consumption 0.44 0.86 1.35 1.77 1.88 2.15 2.48 2.89 Balance ---- Z03 0.01 - .06 07 0.11 0.10 Pulp production 0.41 0.72 1.19 1.50 1.63 1.90 2.18 2.44 Pulp consumption 0.43 0.78 1.24 1.62 1.74 1.98 2.32 2.62 Balance -0.02 -0.06 -0.05 -0.12 -0.11 -0.08 -0.114 -0.18 1 Except for Asia ex Japan pulp data which are shown in 1000 metric tons. 2 See note 1 above.