The World Bank Pacific Resilience Program (P147839) REPORT NO.: RES43423 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF THE PACIFIC RESILIENCE PROJECT (UNDER THE PACIFIC RESILIENCE PROGRAM) APPROVED ON JUNE 19, 2015 TO THE PACIFIC COMMUNITY URBAN, RESILIENCE AND LAND GLOBAL PRACTICE EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC REGION Regional Vice President: Victoria Kwakwa Country Director: Michel Kerf Regional Director: Benoit Bosquet Practice Manager/Manager: Ming Zhang Task Team Leaders: Tevi Maltali Obed, Keiko Saito, Simone Lillian Esler The World Bank Pacific Resilience Program (P147839) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADB Asian Development Bank CCA Climate Change Adaptation DRM Disaster Risk Management DRR Disaster Risk Reduction IRI Intermediate Results Indicator JNAP Joint National Action Plan on Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management LiDAR Light Detection and Ranging M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MHEWS Multi-Hazard Early Warning System MTR Mid-Term Review PDO Project Development Objective PIC Pacific Island Country PIFS Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat PMU Project Management Unit POM Project Operational Manual PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience PREP Pacific Resilience Program RF Results Framework RMI Republic of the Marshall Islands PSU Project Support Unit SPC The Pacific Community SPCR Strategic Program for Climate Resilience SPREP Pacific Regional Environmental Program TA Technical Assistance TTL Task Team Leader The World Bank Pacific Resilience Program (P147839) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P147839 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B) Approval Date Current Closing Date 19-Jun-2015 31-Oct-2022 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency PACIFIC COMMUNITY Pacific Community Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO To strengthen early warning, resilient investments and financial protection of participating countries. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing (US$, Millions) Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed IDA-D0740 19-Jun-2015 02-Oct-2015 13-Oct-2015 31-Oct-2022 3.68 1.79 2.03 TF-A1131 19-Jun-2015 02-Oct-2015 13-Oct-2015 31-Oct-2022 5.79 1.75 4.05 TF-14369 08-May-2013 22-May-2013 22-May-2013 31-Mar-2015 .29 .29 0 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No The World Bank Pacific Resilience Program (P147839) I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING A. Introduction 1. This paper seeks approval to (i) revise the Project Development Objective (PDO), (ii) revise the Results Framework (RF), and (iii) update the disbursement estimates of the Pacific Resilience Program (PREP) 1 Pacific Community Project (PREP-1 SPC) (P147839). This is the second restructuring of this Project and no other changes are proposed. B. Background 2. Phase 1 of the PREP is a ‘Series of Projects’ that include both national projects implemented by countries and regional projects implemented by regional organizations (the ‘Program’). The regional approach of the Program is helping the participating Pacific Island Countries (PICs) to: (i) strengthen early warning and preparedness; (ii) create a framework for stronger and prioritized investments in resilience and retrofitting of key-public assets to meet internationally recognized resilience standards; and (iii) improve the post-disaster response capacity of the countries through strengthened financial resilience to disaster events. The PREP Projects in Phase 1 have the same PDO and up to four standardized components including program/project implementation support. In Phase 1, Tonga and Samoa are implementing all four components, whereas Vanuatu and the Republic of the Marshall Islands are implementing only one of the components. The component focuses on disaster risk financing and is managed internally through their ministry of finance. Therefore, a project support unit (PSU) is not required for the two respective countries. 3. PREP-1 SPC. Two regional organizations, Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat (PIFS) and the Pacific Community (SPC, formerly known as the Secretariat of the Pacific Community), are implementing two PREP projects to support the PREP countries in developing and improving tools and data that can be used by all PICs for disaster and climate resilience. This proposed restructuring relates to the SPC implemented PREP-1 Project, which is comprised of three of four Program components, namely: (i) Strengthening Early Warning and Preparedness; (ii) Risk Reduction and Resilience Investments; (iii) Disaster Risk Financing; and (iv) Project and Program Management. As per the original design/appraisal, the SPC Project is not implementing Component 3 activities . The proposed restructuring is focused on PREP-1 SPC’s Sub-component 1.2: Regional Technical Assistance to Strengthen Impact-based Forecasting and Preparedness; and Sub-component 2.2: Regional Platform to Support Risk Reduction and Resilient Forecasting. C. Project Status 4. The International Development Association (IDA) grant and the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) grant for PREP-1 SPC were approved on June 19, 2015 and became effective on October 13, 2015. The current closing date is October 31, 2022. SPC’s Project financing totals US$9.47 million, of which US$3.68 million is the regional IDA grant and US$5.79 million is the PPCR grant under the Strategic Program for Climate Resilience. The current PDO is to strengthen early warning, resilient investments and financial protection of participating countries. Both the Development Objective and Implementation Progress of the Project are rated Moderately Satisfactory in the most The World Bank Pacific Resilience Program (P147839) recent Implementation Status and Results (ISR) reports from June and December 2020. Project funding is about 38.7 percent disbursed, with just over $6 million undisbursed as of February 4, 2021. 5. Project Restructuring (June 2019). The Project was restructured in June 2019 to streamline two project sub- components, revise some of the Intermediary Results Indicators (IRIs), and extend the Project closing date by 23 months to allow sufficient time for the completion of activities. 6. Likelihood of Achieving the PDO. The likelihood of achieving the PDO was upgraded from Moderately Unsatisfactory to Moderately Satisfactory in June 2020 after the issue of SPC’s unwillingness to engage internal technical staff to implement the Project was resolved in June 2019 and project implementation gained momentum. The disbursement delay has been reduced by more than five months and the Project is likely to achieve its PDO by the closing date. The PDO continues to be relevant to the participating countries and the Focus Area 3 of the World Bank Group’s Regional Partnership Framework (RPF) in the Pacific1; strengthening preparedness and resilience to natural disasters and climate change. All activities in this Project contribute to achieving Objective 3.1 of Focus Area 3: Strengthened Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change. Component 1 contributes to strengthening the PREP countries’ capacity to provide early warnings of climatic events, to respond to disasters, and to better prepare for disasters. Component 2 contributes to building better digital tools, data, and capacity to mainstream disaster risk management in urban planning. PREP is specifically quoted as a regional activity under Objective 3.1 of the RPF. 7. Implementation Progress (IP). As discussed above, project implementation has speeded up since June 2019, and the IP rating was also upgraded from Moderately Unsatisfactory to Moderately Satisfactory in June 2020. From March 2020 to August 2020, the number of signed contracts increased from 58 percent to at least 88 percent of total planned activities. The implementation progress of component activities supported by the Project is summarized below. 8. Sub-component 1.2: Regional Technical Assistance to Strengthen Impact-based Forecasting and Preparedness. The key outputs under this sub-component are: (i) innovative coastal inundation forecasting tools that can run without a supercomputer; (ii) LiDAR data for Vanuatu and Tonga to be used by the coastal inundation forecasting tools, the spatial urban planning tool under Component 2, and a wide range of applications outside the Project; (iii) development of disaster risk management (DRM) training courses and qualifications that are accepted by the regional or national accreditation authorities; and (iv) improving the response capacity of the PREP countries for post-disaster needs assessments through the provision of specialists, equipment and training. As of October 2020, two firms had been recruited for the coastal inundation forecasting modelling and LiDAR data acquisition, and implementation of these activities is underway. An international Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) consultant is on board to develop an accreditation process for the disaster risk management training courses. Equipment for Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) field deployment has been procured and recruitment of the PDNA Coordinator and sector experts is in progress. Once the DRM training materials are developed, the Project will deliver some training remotely to avoid any further delays due to COVID-19. The Project is taking measures to ensure that all activities are completed by the Project close date, despite COVID-19 travel restrictions. 9. Sub-component 2.2: Regional Platform to Support Risk Reduction and Resilient Forecasting. This sub-component supports an integrated dataset platform and a digital tool for climate and disaster risk-informed urban spatial planning to be developed initially for two islands in Vanuatu (Malekula and Tanna) and scalable to other countries. The development of the integrated dataset (called the Pacific Nexus database) that will integrate the web-based data/information and all Pacific Disaster and Resilience knowledge resources is on track; the draft design report has 1RPF Report Number 100997-EAP, Published February 2017 The World Bank Pacific Resilience Program (P147839) already been produced for review and comments. The database/platform is on track for completion and operation towards the end of the Project. Activities to capture the LiDAR data are in the initial preparation stage and are awaiting the lifting of travel restrictions for survey flights to be conducted. Discussions are ongoing with the Government of Vanuatu on the spatial planning required to meet the planning needs of the two islands. 10. Component 4: Project Management. All Project support staffs, and key consultants are now on board and the Project Support Unit (SPC-PSU) is operating at full capacity. 11. Financial management and procurement performance are rated Satisfactory and Moderately Satisfactory respectively. There are no outstanding Interim Financial Reports (IFRs) and the 2019 Audit report was confirmed to be acceptable to the Bank on September 28, 2020. Procurement progress between April 2020 to January 2021 was significant: SPC signed all 19 different contracts approved in the Procurement Plan totaling US$4.06million equivalent, including the contracts for Lidar acquisition for selected sites in Tonga and Vanuatu and the Impact Forecasting Consultancy; the two largest contracts under the Project equivalent to 30.6 percent of the total Project budget. So far, 38.7 percent of the project budget has been expended and a further 53 percent committed through existing contracts. The total uncommitted funds (about $0.47 million) is budgeted for spatial planning tools for Vanuatu (to be developed when the data acquisition activity is completed) including project operations cost and contingencies. 12. Safeguards. For this Category ‘B’ Project, the Bank Environment Assessment Policy (OP/BP 4.01) is the only safeguard policy triggered under the Project. The Project is in compliance with this safeguard policy and the overall safeguard rating is Satisfactory. 13. Risk Ratings. The overall residual risk of the Project is rated moderate. All risk categories are rated either low or moderate except for the risks relating to Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability and Fiduciary, which are rated substantial. These risks are expected to be revised to Moderate based on residual risks. 14. Impacts of COVID 19. The 23-month extension earlier approved allows extra time for implementation and for achieving the development objectives, despite the uncertainty and scale of the financial shocks from COVID-19 on the PICs and the impact of COVID-19 on project implementation, particularly on the mobilization of consultants and firms to these countries. However, the annual tropical cyclones (TCs) impacting the region (such as TC Harold in April 2020) in addition to the COVID-19 shocks may mean that SPC and the participating PREP countries may not be able to focus on the wider climate and disaster resilience agenda. Potential actions to mitigate these risks include: the SPC-PSU using virtual meetings and other technology platforms to continue to engage the PREP countries and the recruited consultants/firms in the coming months; and ensuring that the international firms have a local consultant in the respective countries to support project implementation. D. Rationale for restructuring 15. Revision to the PDO. The activities contributing to “financial protection” outcome of the program level PDO are implemented at the national level by participating countries under Component 3 of the Program. The PREP SPC Project is not implementing this Component as per the original Project Appraisal Document, therefore the Project level PDO needs to be revised accordingly. The proposes change does not jeopardise the overall achievement of the program level PDO. 16. Revision of the Results Framework. After the first restructuring which steamlined some component activities to simplify project implementation, some activities are reprioritized to better address the needs of the participating The World Bank Pacific Resilience Program (P147839) countries and their project activities. Therefore the Intermediate Results Indicators (IRIs) need to be revised for the following reasons; - IRI 1: revised to rectify the ambiguity of the current indicator and to ensure that the indicator adequately captures the capacities built from the trainings provided and the extent to which the knowledge gained are applied in the workplace; and end target that is more realistic. - IRI 2: The indicator is realigned and revised as a Citizen Engagement indicator to measure the number of users satisfied with the early warning system strengthened under the Project. - IRI 3: revised to re-align it with the new open source data/information management platform developed. The Indicator measures the completion and operational use of the open source platform and the selected information management systems strengthened through the platform. - IRI 4: revised to realign it with the impact-based forecasting modelling developed for coastal inundation resulting from extreme events in Tonga and Samoa. - IRI 5: This indicator is no longer relevant due to the reprioritized activities. The request to drop this indicator was included and approved in the 1st Project Restructuring. Two new IRIs have also been added; IRI6- will capture and measure the reprioritized activity on providing support for post disaster needs assessment to SPC member countries; and IRI6- to measure the reprioritized activity on LiDAR data acquistion for Vanuatu and Tonga. 17. Changes to the Disbursement Estimates are required to take into account disbursements so far and the payment schedule for ongoing signed contracts. II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 18. Revised PDO. The current PDO “To strengthen early warning, resilient investments and financial protection of participating countries” is proposed to be revised to “To strengthen early warning and resilient investments of participating countries”. This proposed change will ensure that the PDO is realigned with the actual activities supported under the Project. This change will not have any impact on the program level PDO. 19. Revised Intermediate Results Indicators. It is proposed to make the following changes to the IRIs (see Annex 1 for more details)2: i. Indicator 1: “Improved use of training opportunities” revised to “Number of personnel working in the disaster management area applying learned skills on the job”. ii. Indicator 2: “Satisfaction of users of the multi-hazard spatial risk data information system” revised to “Satisfaction of users with the early warning system”. iii. Indicator 3: “Percentage of updated risk exposure data for PREP countries” revised to “Multi- hazard risk information systems strengthened and in use”. 2The Monitoring and Evaluation Plan for the Project has been updated in the World Bank Operations Portal to reflect the changes in the frequency, data source and methodology of data collection for the modified indicators and the new ones. The Project Operations Manual will also be updated to reflect these changes once approved. The World Bank Pacific Resilience Program (P147839) iv. Indicator 4: “Percentage of public assets with risk information available to inform resilient planning in targeted areas” revised to “Hazard model for forecasting of impacts of extreme events operationalized”. v. Indicator 5: “Intended beneficiaries that are aware of project information and project support investments” to be dropped. vi. New Indicator 5: “Post disaster needs assessment undertaken and strengthened” to be added. vii. New Indicator 6: “High- Resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) developed and operationalized in target areas” to be added. 20. Disbursement estimates for the Project have been updated, as shown in Section IV. Detailed Changes. III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Project's Development Objectives ✔ Results Framework ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ DDO Status ✔ PBCs ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ The World Bank Pacific Resilience Program (P147839) Procurement ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_PDO_TABLE PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVE Current PDO To strengthen early warning, resilient investments and financial protection of participating countries. Proposed New PDO To strengthen early warning and resilient investments of participating countries OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_DISBURSEMENT_TABLE DISBURSEMENT ESTIMATES Change in Disbursement Estimates Yes Year Current Proposed 2015 420,000.00 50,500.00 2016 1,060,000.00 70,200.00 2017 850,000.00 808,900.00 2018 530,000.00 657,200.00 2019 2,000,000.00 428,700.00 2020 1,800,000.00 1,000,000.00 2021 1,740,000.00 4,210,000.00 2022 1,070,000.00 2,244,500.00 2023 0.00 0.00 The World Bank Pacific Resilience Program (P147839) . The World Bank Pacific Resilience Program (P147839) . Results framework COUNTRY: Pacific Islands Pacific Resilience Program Project Development Objectives(s) To strengthen early warning, resilient investments and financial protection of participating countries. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Strengthen early warning and resilient investments of participating countries (Action: This Objective has been Revised) Direct Project Beneficiaries (Number) 62,000.00 135,000.00 PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Component 1: Strengthening Early Warning and Preparedness Number of personnel working in the disaster management area 40.00 70.00 applying learned skills on the job (Number) Rationale: To rectify the ambiguity of the current indicator and to ensure that the indicator adequately captures the capacities built Action: This indicator has been Revised and the extent to which the knowledge gained from the trainings are applied in the workplace and end target that is more realistic. The revised end target is now the Number of 70 trainees applying their new skills. The World Bank Pacific Resilience Program (P147839) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Component 2: Mainstreaming Risk Reduction and Resilient Investments Satisfaction of users with the early warning system (Number) 0.00 15.00 Rationale: The indicator is realigned and revised as a Citizen Engagement indicator to measure the number of users satisfied with the Action: This indicator has been Revised early warning system strengthened under the Project. Satisfaction will be gauged by a "Yes" and "No" question and the end target is 15 satisfied users. Multi-hazard risk information systems strengthened and in use Nil Yes (Text) Rationale: To re-align the indicator with the new open source data/information management platform developed to allow for a uniform and an easy way of accessing and strengthening existing climate and risk information systems and data hosted Action: This indicator has been Revised under SPC. The Indicator measures the completion and operational use of the open source platform and the selected information management systems strengthened through the platform. Hazard model for forecasting of impacts of extreme events Nil Yes operationalized (Text) Rationale: To realign with the impact-based forecasting modelling developed for coastal inundation resulting from extreme events in Action: This indicator has been Revised Tonga and Samoa Intended beneficiaries that are aware of project information and 0.00 60.00 project support investments (Percentage) Rationale: Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion This indicator is no longer relevant due to the reprioritized activities. The request to drop this indicator was included and approved in the 1st Project Restructuring. The World Bank Pacific Resilience Program (P147839) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name PBC Baseline End Target Post disaster needs assessment undertaken and strengthened Nil Yes (Text) Rationale: The indicator captures and measures the reprioritized activity providing support for post disaster needs assessment to SPC Action: This indicator is New member countries High- Resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) developed and Nil Yes operationalized in target areas (Text) Rationale: Action: This indicator is New This indicator measures the reprioritized activity on LiDAR data acquisition for Vanuatu and Tonga. IO Table SPACE The World Bank Pacific Resilience Program (P147839)