The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) AFRICA WEST | Gabon | Poverty and Equity Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2017 | Seq No: 8 | ARCHIVED on 28-Sep-2021 | ISR48196 | Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Economy and Recovery, CNTIPPEE Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 30-Mar-2017 Effectiveness Date: 09-Nov-2017 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 30-Oct-2020 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 15-Dec-2020 Original Closing Date: 31-Dec-2021 Revised Closing Date: 31-Dec-2021 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The development objective of this project is to strengthen the statistical capacity of the Borrower, fill key data gaps, improve statistical production, and enhance statistical dissemination practices. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Component 1: Improved Data Collection, Statistical Production, and Dissemination:(Cost $32.80 M) Component 2: Build Technical Capacity and Modernize Infrastructure:(Cost $13.50 M) Component 3: National Statistical System Institutional Reform and Project Management Capacity Building:(Cost $3.57 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Low Implementation Status and Key Decisions Over the last six months, the project made significant progress despite the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to hit the activities. The project overall disbursement is 58%. The pandemic caused significant delays to implement previously planned project activities. In March 2020 all field data collection activities were suspended and were only resumed in late 2020 with the government authorizing the General Directorate of Statistics (Direction Générale de la Statistique, DGS) all field activities with strict compliance to COVID-19 prevention measures. Overall Project Implementation Progress: Component 1. Improve data collection, statistical production, and dissemination (US$32.8 million equivalent: Six critical data collection activities have been undertaken, such as, two household budget surveys for the years 2017 and 2020, a Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), an enterprise census, an agriculture census and agriculture surveys. Out of these six critical data collection activities, the 2017 household budget survey for poverty monitoring (Enquete Gabonaise pour l’Evaluation de la Pauvreté, EGEP II) and the agriculture census have been completed. 9/28/2021 Page 1 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Based on the 2017 household budget survey, poverty numbers and profile have been produced, validated, and disseminated through the General Directorate of Statistics (Direction Générale de la Statistique, DGS) website. The 2017 household budget survey results were used for a study on targeting of vulnerable households. From October to December 2020, 2000 households were surveyed as pilots to test a newly proposed targeting methodology. The nine reports of the agriculture census have been drafted and its main results were presented to the ministerial council. Drafting of questionnaires, field worker manuals and data entry programs for different agriculture production surveys started in June 2021. The data collection for the DHS was started in November 2019 but interrupted in March 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This field activity resumed only in July 2021 and the team is currently on the field to complete the survey of the remaining sample. Field activities under the enterprise census have also started since August 2021. The base year of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was updated with the use of the 2017 household expenditure survey. The geographic coverage of the index was also expanded beyond Libreville to a national coverage, including the rural area. Data collection of the prices was also modernized with the use of tablets and since 2019 the harmonized CPI is produced monthly and is publicly available on the DGS website. Since project effectiveness, updating National Accounts activities are ongoing. To date, the project allowed closing the seven-year backlog in producing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates; and provided technical assistance to the DGS National Accounts department by assigning them eight young statisticians. The GDP series for the years 2010 to 2017 were produced with the support of AFRISTAT, an economic and statistics observatory for sub- Saharan Africa and AFRITAC-CENTRE. Additionally, 2010 to 2017 and 2020 quarterly external trade statistics are compiled and published on the DGS website. The project also fully funded the annual school census which was last conducted in 2010. This census led to the dissemination of the 2019 school statistics yearbook and the data collection of a second school census related to 2021 statistics is underway. Component 2. Build technical capacity and modernize infrastructure: The project supported young high school students in Libreville and Franceville to prepare and pass the regional statistics exam that enrolls them in regional African statistics schools. Before this project, most Gabonese students found it very difficult to pass this exam. In 2019, and through the project, these numbers increased to 19 students (two females) who are enrolled in statistics and demography courses in Yaoundé, Cameroon where their tuition and scholarship fees are paid for by the project funds. With the support of the project, the DGS developed a training plan for the year 2020-2023. This includes DGS and NSS staff training plan, mostly on data production, cleaning, and analysis. AFRISTAT is carrying out most of the training planned for the DGS staff. To date, six staff (one female) from the DGS and the Ministry of Agriculture received training on sampling technics, survey methodology, data cleaning and analysis. The DGS office renovation and refurbishing work has not been started. This was because the first building assigned to the DGS by the Government did not comply with the World Bank’s safeguard requirements for renovation works. The second assigned building was already occupied and was therefore difficult to start any studies or renovation works. Component 3. National Statistical System Institutional Reform and Project Management: The government initially enacted a Law in 2015 which transformed the General Directorate of Statistic into a National Statistical Agency (Agence Nationale de la Statistique des Etudes Démographiques, Economiques et Sociales). However, after it started the budget consolidation process, the implementation of the law stalled due to growing concern about the efficiency of the countries existing government agencies. This pushed the government to set back in creating a Statistical Agency. The proposed approach was then to amend the 2015 Statistics Act by replacing the “Statistics Agency” with a “National Statistical Institute”, a more common organizational structure in the region. The revision process of the law started in 2018 but was delayed due to the political environment. This law was revised and adopted by the parliament in June 2021 and is expected to be approved by the senate in October 2021. In the meantime, its decree of application, and the texts have been drafted and are waiting for the law’s approval. The project is also supporting the drafting of the new National Statistical Development Strategy II (NSDS II) that will guide and support to statistical system for the next five years. The NSDS II roadmap was validated, and stakeholder engagement activities are expected to start by mid-September 2021. Despite the projects progress, the current project closing date which is December 31, 2021 is not sufficient to complete all planned activities under the project. Therefore, the government requested to extend the closing date and the Bank team alongside the PIU is working to restructure the project, i.e., to extend the project closing date, to add some activities in components and sub-components, to revise the Results Framework, etc. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Moderate Low Low Macroeconomic Moderate Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies Moderate Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program Moderate Low Low 9/28/2021 Page 2 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Substantial Moderate Moderate Sustainability Fiduciary Moderate Moderate Moderate Environment and Social Low Low Low Stakeholders Low Low Low Other -- Moderate Moderate Overall Moderate Moderate Low Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Increase in Gabon's Statistical Capacity IN01037874 ►Increase in Gabon's Statistical Capacity Index score (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 40.00 40.00 40.00 65.00 Date 31-Dec-2015 24-Feb-2021 17-Sep-2021 31-Dec-2021 IN01037875 ►Improved national accounts and price statistics (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 50.00 20.00 100.00 Date 31-Dec-2016 24-Feb-2021 17-Sep-2021 31-Dec-2021 IN01037876 ►Number of welfare, agriculture, economic and business surveys and censuses conducted (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 2.00 7.00 10.00 10.00 Date 31-Dec-2016 24-Feb-2021 17-Sep-2021 31-Dec-2021 The following are the surveys that were conducted until this ISR period: EGEP II, Agriculture census, First edition of School Census, Five rounds of High Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS) of Household surveys, Comments: and two editions of HFPS for businesses. Data dissemination practices improved IN01037873 ►Number of survey and census microdata files freely available on-line (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 9/28/2021 Page 3 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Value 0.00 0.00 2.00 8.00 Date 31-Dec-2015 24-Feb-2021 17-Sep-2021 28-Feb-2021 The Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the 2013 Population and Housing Census microdata Comments: are available on the DGS website. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component 1: Improved Data Collection, Statistical Production, and Dissemination IN01037877 ►Base year of the CPI is updated (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 31-Dec-2016 24-Feb-2021 17-Sep-2021 31-Dec-2021 IN01037879 ►Data collection of the next welfare survey is completed (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes No Yes Date 31-Dec-2016 24-Feb-2021 17-Sep-2021 31-Dec-2021 The indicator is referring to the 2017 Household Budget Survey for poverty monitoring (Enquete Gabonaise pour l’Evaluation de la Pauvreté, EGEP II). The DGS is now planning EGEP III which is Comments: planned to be launched in 2022. IN01037881 ►Data collection of the next DHS is completed (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 31-Dec-2016 24-Feb-2021 17-Sep-2021 31-Dec-2021 The data collection for the DHS was started in November 2019 but interrupted in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This field activity resumed only in July 2021 and the team is currently on the field to Comments: complete the survey of the remaining sample. Component 2: Build Technical Capacity and Modernize Infrastructure IN01037878 ►Increase in number of qualified technical staff working on national accounts at the Statistics Office (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 9/28/2021 Page 4 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) Value 2.00 15.00 17.00 8.00 Date 31-Dec-2016 24-Feb-2021 17-Sep-2021 31-Dec-2021 IN01037880 ►Number of staff at the Statistics Office with improved skills (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 79.00 79.00 80.00 Date 31-Dec-2016 24-Feb-2021 17-Sep-2021 31-Dec-2021 IN01037882 Number of women of the Statistics Office with improved skills (Number, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 21.00 21.00 16.00 Date 31-Dec-2016 24-Feb-2021 17-Sep-2021 31-Dec-2021 Performance-Based Conditions Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P157473 IBRD-86990 Effective USD 50.00 50.00 0.00 34.12 17.86 66% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P157473 IBRD-86990 Effective 30-Mar-2017 18-Apr-2017 09-Nov-2017 31-Dec-2021 31-Dec-2021 Cumulative Disbursements 9/28/2021 Page 5 of 6 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Gabon Statistical Development Project (P157473) PBC Disbursement Achievement Disbursed amount in Disbursement % PBC ID PBC Type Description Coc PBC Amount Status Coc for PBC Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 9/28/2021 Page 6 of 6